Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii UNDER 64.5 | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Hawaii at 8 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met a year ago they got into the 70's but I believe we're going to see a lower-scoring affair this time around and we're dealing with a lofty total approaching the mid-60's. BYU QB Zach Wilson appeared in eight games this season and threw more than two touchdowns on only one occasion - that coming against a horrible UMass defense. Meanwhile, Hawaii QB Cole MacDonald is a legend in his own right but had a bit of a tough time once the schedule toughened up this season, failing to throw for 300+ yards since way back on October 20th while throwing more than a single touchdown pass only once over his last six games. BYU is the better defensive team in this matchup but I do think Hawaii can hold its own in that regard here as well, noting that in the Rainbow Warriors most recent game - the MWC Championship - they didn't allow a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half against Boise State. BYU held all 12 opponents to 27 points or less this season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida OVER 59.5 | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Marshall and Central Florida at 2:30 pm et on Monday. Central Florida didn't receive quite as much hype this season than it has in previous years but it was an offensive juggernaut nonetheless, ranking fourth in the nation in total yardage per game and sixth in points scored per game. The Knights are going to get theirs offensively in this matchup. Marshall's good run of defensive play down the stretch had everything to do with a weak slate of opponents. With that being said, the Thundering Herd are a perennial Bowl team - or at least they have been over the last decade. More often than not they're able to generate plenty of offense, scoring 30+ points in three of their last four Bowl appearances. I don't expect them to roll over in this daunting matchup and that should set us up for a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-19 | UAB v. Appalachian State UNDER 48 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Appalachian State at 9 pm et on Saturday. My first look is usually to the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl as we've seen plenty of shootouts on the fast track of the Superdome over the years. However, in this case, I believe we'll see a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. UAB topped out at 38 points this season, and generally struggled offensively with some lackluster talent at the skill positions on offense. Keep in mind, the Blazers benefited from facing the likes of Akron, Rice and UTEP during the regular season - arguably three of the weakest teams in the nation. Here, they'll be facing a stiff challenge in Appalachian State. The Mountaineers could be forgiven for not being all that interested in this Bowl game. After all their head coach has bolted, and they just played in this same Bowl game a year ago, winning in a walk. Just not sure we're going to see a great deal of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Florida International v. Arkansas State UNDER 60.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida International and Arkansas State at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. This one will be pegged as a shootout and while it may develop into just that, I'm not sure it will eclipse the lofty posted total. I actually think the two defenses in this matchup can make the opposing offenses rather one-dimensional. I have a lot of respect for the Arkansas State offense led by QB Layne Hatcher but while he's capable of bombing away, they're also going to need to move the football on the ground, which could be a tall task with RB Marcel Murray nursing a bad ankle. Meanwhile, the FIU offense has been inconsistent at best, coming up big for stretches but not able to really sustain anything for much of the campaign. Arkansas State actually faced some explosive offenses in the Sun Belt Conference this season and will be better for it in this matchup with the Panthers. Take the under (10*). |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kent State and Utah State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Utah State should absolutely have its way with the Kent State defense in this game. As I've said on numerous occasions this season, I really do believe the Golden Flashes have one of the worst defenses in the country. With Aggies QB Jordan Love and RB Gerold Bright cleared to play, they should absolutely shred an overmatched Kent State defense. The pointspread does say a lot in this particular matchup, however. I think Utah State is a relatively short favorite for a reason. Kent State seemed to get stronger and more consistent offensively as the season went on, and it should find plenty of success against a beatable Utah State defense that has allowed 30+ points in four of its last six games. This total is high but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 40.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday. Another year, another Army-Navy 'under'. We've been in on virtually all of the 'unders' during the current streak in this series and there's no reason to jump ship here. Yes, Navy put up some gawdy offensive numbers this season but that was largely schedule-based. Army showed flashes of brilliance at times, but really struggled when stepping up in class, as is the case here. These two teams couldn't be any more familiar with one another and that familiarity leads to low-scoring results every year. If anything things are getting tighter, with each of the last five meetings totaling 38 points or less and all five of those games being decided by a touchdown or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 46 | 37-15 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a relatively low total but I believe it's warranted. Oregon hasn't been the offensive juggernaut we've been accustomed to seeing in previous years this season, even with top NFL QB prospect Justin Herbert at the helm of the offense. On the flip side, the Ducks defense has held its own - this isn't a team that got involved in a ton of track meets this season. Utah meanwhile closed out the regular season with some strong performances offensively, but the story is its elite defense, which I believe can handle this matchup with the Ducks. The Utes come in having allowed a grand total of 25 points over their last three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday. There's little reason to have much faith in either of these offenses even though the 'over' has cashed in each of Western Michigan's last two games and six straight contests involving Northern Illinois. Keep in mind, Broncos QB Jon Wassink had thrown for under 200 yards in four straight games prior to last week's 322-yard, three-touchdown outburst against Ohio. On Senior Night, I do expect to see the Northern Illinois defense show up as the Huskies wrap up what has been a highly-disappointing campaign. NIU QB Marcus Childers has been ineffective since taking over for Ryan Bowers, who continues to recover from a concussion. Childers has thrown for more than 100 yards just once this season. While he is gaining 6.5 yards per rush, that's largely due to a relatively small sample size. In the last two seasons he averaged 3.3 and 2.7 yards per rush. Both offenses are capable of moving the football on the ground with terrific lead backs. That should only serve to keep the clock moving in this one, however, as Western Michigan looks to pick up a win and move on to postseason play. Take the under (10*). |
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11-23-19 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette OVER 71 | 3-53 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette at 5 pm et on Saturday. Regardless how this game plays out, I expect it to find its way 'over' the lofty total. We won with Troy last week as it rolled to a 63-27 win over what I consider to be one of the nation's worst teams in Texas State. Here, the Trojans should find the going a lot tougher, although I do have faith in QB Kaleb Barker to get them into the end zone early and often. Barker has now thrown for at least 330 yards in four straight games, racking up 14 touchdowns compared to just one interception over that stretch. Louisiana-Lafayette will pose a challenge defensively to be sure, but with Troy likely to be forced into comeback mode, I'm confident we'll see Barker bomb away with his excellent group of receivers all afternoon long. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a run-oriented offensive attack with Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas leading the way. With that in mind, they should be able to run wild against a very beatable Troy defense here. We're talking about a Troy defense that even against a usually punchless Texas State offense allowed around 400 yards of total offense and 27 points last week. Note that Louisiana-Lafayette has scored over 30 points in eight of 10 games this season and should be able to better than number here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 54.5 | 30-49 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toledo and Buffalo at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Toledo is coming off a string of high-scoring games, with the 'over' cashing in each of its last four contests. I look for that streak to end here, however, as the Rockets face a tough challenge in the form of the Buffalo Bulls on Wednesday night. Note that the Rockets offense has been far better at home than on the road this season. Save for a big performance at Colorado State (who owns one of the weakest defenses in the nation), Toledo has scored just 45 points combined in its other three road tilts. Last year, Buffalo went into the Glass Bowl and held the Rockets to only 17 points in a game that featured a closing total of 63 points. The 'over' has cashed in the Bulls last three games, with their offense getting loose against the likes of Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Kent State. They should find the going a little tougher here, even if Toledo hasn't looked particularly stout on the defensive side of the football over its last few games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Northern Illinois' 31-28 win over Toledo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night as the Huskies return home to host Eastern Michigan. I did like what I saw from the Huskies defense for the first three quarters in that game anyway. Northern Illinois allowed a touchdown with just under six minutes remaining in the first quarter against Toledo but then didn't give up any more points until a minute into the fourth quarter. The Huskies know they can't become complacent defensively in this one after giving up 21 fourth quarter points before kicking a game-winning field goal in the closing seconds last week. Eastern Michigan will certainly be up for this one, knowing that a win would make it Bowl eligible with a game to spare. Note that Northern Illinois has scored 24 points or less in six of 10 games this season. The Huskies put up 26 points the last time they faced the Eagles last season, but that was a stronger NIU squad that won eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall UNDER 55 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. Louisiana Tech has been absolutely mowing down the competition in C-USA play, but has also faced an extremely light schedule recently. Since the start of October, the Bulldogs have gone bye week, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas. Those four opponents represent four of the weakest defensive teams in the country. While the Bulldogs have absolutely scored at will over the last month, this is the same team that was held to 20 points against Grambling State and put up only 23 points at Rice. Marshall isn't likely to blow the doors off of Louisiana Tech here, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for. The Thundering Herd were in an absolute smash spot offensively last time out against Rice, but could only muster 20 points. QB Isaiah Green has proven to be a game manager more than anything else, throwing for fewer than 270 yards in all but one game this season, while managing more than single touchdown pass on just three occasions. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh OVER 50 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Pittsburgh at 8 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams come in well-rested having not played since November 2nd, giving them ample time to gameplan for this key mid-November showdown. North Carolina QB Sam Howell has thrown for over 340 yards in three of his last four games, compiling an incredible 15 touchdown passes over that stretch. That's not to mention the Tar Heels very capable backfield tandem of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. Pitt's offense has left a lot to be desired over its last few games, all of the lower-scoring variety, but I expect a big bounce-back here. QB Kenny Pickett has thrown four interceptions over his last two games, but I don't expect him to simply be a game manager in this contest. The Panthers know they'll need to go on the attack to keep pace with an improving Tar Heels offense, and I look for them to find some success with the Pickett-to-Ffrench connection. Maurice Ffrench hasn't hauled in a touchdown in his last two games, but should find the end zone against a beatable Tar Heels secondary here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 53 | 31-28 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Illinois and Toledo at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Toledo has been involved in back-to-back high-scoring shootouts, flaming a couple of bad defenses in Eastern Michigan and Kent State in posting consecutive victories. I expect the Rockets to face a little more resistance against rival Northern Illinois here. The Huskies are fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Central Michigan but will undoubtedly get up for this game, knowing they need to run the table over their final three games to become Bowl eligible. With a win here, that would certainly still be well within the realm of possibility, noting they have two home games to close out the regular season. Note that Northern Illinois has held five of nine opponents this season to 27 points or less. The Huskies biggest issue has been their lack of consistent offensive production, scoring 24 points or less in seven of nine contests. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron OVER 46 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Akron at 6 pm et on Tuesday. Akron has scored a grand total of just nine points over its last four games but here the Zips have a fine opportunity to bust out against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. The Eagles have allowed 30+ points in five of nine contests this season, while also giving up 29 points against FCS opponent Central Connecticut State. Prior to its current lull, Akron had scored 60 points over its previous three games. Defensively, the Zips have only managed to limit their points allowed thanks to game script. Make no mistake, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Eastern Michigan is in a clear 'get-right' spot offensively after getting trounced by Buffalo at home last time out. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-19 | UTSA v. Old Dominion UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UTSA and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. The UTSA defense hasn't been performing well lately but has also faced the likes of UAB and Texas A&M in two of its last three games. Here, it takes a big step down in class against a punchless Old Dominion offense. The Monarchs battled hard but ultimately fell a touchdown short in a 24-17 setback at Florida International last week. ODU has now been held to 17 points or less in five consecutive games. The Monarchs haven't always been stout defensively this season but catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up and talent-shy Roadrunners offense. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59 | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between TCU and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. TCU is coming off a huge 37-27 win over Texas last Saturday and fresh off that offensive breakout, most are expecting a shootout in Stillwater this week. I’m not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, prior to last week’s win, the Horned Frogs had scored just 41 points combined in dropping back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas State – both on the road. Oklahoma State by no means possesses an elite defense but I do think the Cowboys can keep the Horned Frogs inconsistent offense in check on Saturday. On the flip side, the TCU defense has shown signs of turning things around over the last couple of weeks. They didn’t give up a touchdown until four minutes into the second quarter last week against Texas and when it mattered most they stepped up, allowing just one second half touchdown. The Horned Frogs will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to slow down dynamic Cowboys RB Chuba Hubbard on Saturday but it’s worth noting that they’ve allowed just one 100+ yard rusher this season and that was Iowa State QB Brock Purdy, who gained 102 yards on the ground against them. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-19 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan UNDER 51 | 10-48 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Northern Illinois’ last game, a 49-0 rout of lowly Akron last Saturday. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season and will certainly be stepping up in class here off the win over the Zips. I’m confident we’ll see them keep their offensive gameplan focused on the ground where RB Tre Harbison has been terrific. That strategy should help keep the chains, and more important for us, the clock moving. Central Michigan entered last week’s date with Buffalo on a serious roll offensively but that had more to do with the level of opposition it had faced through the first three weeks of October than anything else (the Chippewas faced Eastern Michigan, New Mexico State and Bowling Green over a three-week stretch). Last week, the Chips could only manage 20 points in a blowout loss to Buffalo, turning the football over four times in the process. Much like NIU, I look for CMU to keep the football on the ground for much of the afternoon on Saturday, with RB Jonathan Ward having rushed for over 100 yards in four of his last five games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Connecticut at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Navy's high-scoring win over Tulane last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Midshipmen hit the road to face lowly UConn on a short week. Last week's high-scoring result was certainly game script dependent as Tulane simply couldn't stop the Navy offense early on, digging a 24-0 hole just five minutes into the second quarter. From there things really opened up. I expect a different story to unfold here. Connecticut stunningly put up 56 points in a win at UMass last week but will face a much tougher challenge here. Note that prior to last week's performance, the Huskies had scored 22 points or less in five straight games and had topped out at 24 points, that coming in a season-opening win over FCS squad Wagner. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan UNDER 51.5 | 14-45 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ when these two teams hooked up to kick off the season last year and I’ll make the same play here. The Irish are coming off three consecutive relatively high-scoring affairs in which they put up a combined 117 points. I’m not counting on QB Ian Book and the Notre Dame offense to bust out again here, however. Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, and will certainly be up for this showdown at the Big House. I’m confident we’ll see the Irish lean heavily on RB Tony Jones Jr. off three straight 100+ yard rushing performances but he’ll be stepping up in competition after running all over Virginia, Bowling Green and USC. We’ve already seen the Wolverines offense get stymied on a number of occasions this season and should expect no different here. I don’t think we’ll see Jim Harbaugh throw QB Shea Patterson to the wolves here. Look for him to once again be asked to manage the game and avoid the big mistakes against an opportunistic Irish defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Texas v. TCU UNDER 57 | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in TCU’s loss at Kansas State last week and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Horned Frogs didn’t find the end zone until the second quarter in last week’s contest, and when the game was on the line, couldn’t score a single touchdown in the game’s final 23+ minutes. The fact is, TCU has had considerable offensive success in just two of five games this season and one of those came against lowly Kansas, who Texas hung 50 points on last week. The Longhorns know they’ll need to be better defensively after giving up a stunning 48 points against the Jayhawks last Saturday. I’m confident they’ll respond favorably here after holding TCU to just 16 points in last year’s matchup. Note that just two weeks ago, Texas held mighty Oklahoma out of the end zone from just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter until midway through the third quarter. The Longhorns may not have an elite defense this season, but it’s not as if they’re facing an offensive juggernaut on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Akron v. Northern Illinois UNDER 43.5 | 0-49 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Akron and Northern Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron’s offense couldn’t have looked much worse than it did in last week’s 21-0 loss at home against Buffalo (we won with the Bulls in that game). Rather than fade the Zips again here, we’ll turn our attention to the total and back the ‘under’ as they hit the road to face Northern Illinois. One area where I do expect some improvement from the Zips offensively is on the ground. You can run on the Huskies this season and that bodes well for Akron as it looks to effectively shorten this game and churn out long drives. That of course also serves our purposes well with a play on the ‘under’. Northern Illinois lost starting QB Ross Bowers to a concussion in last week’s loss to Miami-Ohio. Regardless who is under center, the Huskies have had a tough time getting anything going offensively this season. Save for a few breakdowns from opposing defenses resulting in big plays, Northern Illinois has been kept at bay for much of the campaign. RB Tre Harbison has seen his workload increase over the last few games and has had some success, but it’s worth noting that he has reached the end zone in just two of six contests this season. He’ll likely be the focal point of the Huskies offense on Saturday but that only strengthens our position on the ‘under’ as he should be able to help NIU churn out long, time-consuming drives against a Zips defense that has at the very least been able to limit opposing passing attacks, not allowing a quarterback to throw for over 200 yards since September 21st against Troy. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams combined to score 57 points in last year’s matchup – a narrow one-point Green Wave victory. I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair this time around. Tulane is fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Memphis last week. The Green Wave are certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that contest. Memphis went into that one highly-motivated after suffering its first loss of the season the week previous at Temple. Navy has been rolling along, scoring a whopping 114 points over the course of its current three-game winning streak. Keep in mind, those wins came against Air Force, Tulsa and South Florida. Just two weeks ago Tulane gave up only seven points in a blowout win over Connecticut, allowing the Huskies to gain just 134 yards through the air and less than 100 on the ground. This is obviously a much tougher matchup but my point is, the Green Wave are capable of stiffening up defensively. Remember, earlier this season they gave up just 24 points on the road against Auburn, holding the Tigers off the scoreboard for the entire first quarter and giving up just a single touchdown in the second half. Navy’s lone defeat this season came at the hands of aforementioned Memphis. After allowing a touchdown with just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter, the Middies didn’t give up another offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 59.5 | 17-47 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Memphis at 7 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘under’ in Tulane’s rout of Connecticut last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Green Wave will obviously be facing a much tougher challenge this time around. Note that Tulane hasn’t really been overly tested but when it did go on the road to face Auburn it managed just six points. Memphis isn’t Auburn but will pose a difficult challenge. Last week, the Tigers didn’t bring their ‘A’ game defensively, digging themselves a 23-7 first half hole before rallying. I do give them credit for stiffening up in the second half, allowing just a single touchdown in the game’s final 30 minutes. Look for the Tigers to come out of the gate much stronger back at home. The Green Wave by no means possess an elite defense, but we have certainly seen positive signs. Going back to that matchup with Auburn, they held the Tigers out of the end zone until the second quarter and also went a stretch of 22 game minutes from the second quarter into the third quarter before allowing another touchdown. When these two teams squared off last season Tulane rolled to a 40-24 victory. I expect this one to be more tightly contested, which should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | TCU v. Kansas State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Kansas State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Things really got away from TCU in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 49-24 decision on the road against Iowa State. I look for the Horned Frogs to do a much better job of controlling proceedings against Kansas State on Saturday and that lends itself to a much lower-scoring affair. Keep in mind, that game against Iowa State essentially turned on a Cyclones defensive fumble return for a touchdown three minutes into the second quarter. Offensively, TCU has shown flashes of brilliance but those flashes have been few and far between. QB Max Duggan has been inconsistent at best, passing for over 200 yards only once, that coming in comeback mode against Iowa State. There's no question, the Horned Frogs will face a tough challenge in the form of Kansas State's defense on Saturday. After dropping back-to-back conference tilts against Oklahoma State and Baylor, in blowout fashion no less, this is obviously a huge game for the Wildcats. Like TCU, Kansas State's offense has been less than impressive. At home against Baylor, Kansas State didn't find the end zone until there were less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The good news is, in that same contest, the 'Cats held Baylor out of the end zone until the final seven minutes of the first half. This was a defensive struggle last year with TCU prevailing 14-13. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Toledo v. Ball State OVER 57 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Ball State at 2 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest a year ago as Toledo rolled to a 45-13 win. As the line would indicate, this should be a far more competitive affair, and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Ball State has reeled off back-to-back wins after starting its campaign with a 1-3 record. The Cardinals have already been involved in some shootouts. They can beat you through the air and on the ground with little talked about RB Caleb Huntley absolutely going off over the last two games, rushing for 309 yards on 64 carries. The touchdowns haven't come just yet (he has just five through six games this season) but it's only a matter of time. QB Drew Plitt has been bombing away, attempting at least 32 passes in five of six games to date. He has already tossed 13 touchdowns. The Cardinals will need all of that offense and then some against a Toledo squad that will be in a sour mood after scoring just seven points in a loss at Bowling Green last week. Keep in mind, the Rockets entered that game sporting a 4-1 record, having scored 145 points over the course of a four-game winning streak. Rockets RB Bryant Koback has already ran for at least 177 yards on two different occasions this season and should have a field day against the Ball State defense on Saturday. Toledo admittedly has questions at QB after Mitchell Guadagni suffered an injury last week but it's not as if he's been setting the MAC on fire. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. Most are expecting a shootout in this Friday night ACC tilt but I'm looking for a different story to unfold at the Carrier Dome. Pittsburgh is coming off a wild, high-scoring 33-30 win at Duke last time out. Keep in mind, the Panthers built a huge 26-3 lead in that contest and actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. They sagged late and let the Blue Devils stage a furious rally, even giving up the lead in the fourth quarter before securing the win with a late touchdown. That should only amp up their concentration on the defensive side of the football in this one, and I see this as a manageable matchup against an inconsistent Syracuse offense. Note that earlier this season, Pitt didn't give up a touchdown against a powerful UCF offense until the final five minutes of the first half. Syracuse is coming off a tough 16-10 loss at N.C. State last week. The Orange are off to a frustrating 3-3 start. QB Tommy DeVito has looked terrific at times but has been far too inconsistent. 11 of his 12 touchdown passes have come in three games and he has also thrown five interceptions. Syracuse's ground attack has been equally inconsistent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Army v. Western Kentucky UNDER 43.5 | 8-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively low posted total in this one but the number is warranted in my opinion. Army is coming off back-to-back uncharacteristic high-scoring games, splitting those contests against Morgan State and Tulane. This one sets up as a slugfest, however, noting that Western Kentucky has seen three of its five games this season total 34 points or less. The Hilltoppers have managed to score more than 21 points only once, and that came back in Week 1 against FCS squad Central Arkansas. While last week’s game got away from them, the Black Knights have proven they can play hard-nosed defensive football, allowing a grand total of just 65 points through their first four contests this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Connecticut and Tulane at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. Connecticut was in a terrific spot to earn its second win of the season last week as it hosted an injury-plagued South Florida squad at home. Not only did the Huskies fail to win that game, they got blown out by a 48-22 score. Their lone victory this season came against FCS squad Wagner at home back in Week 1. Things won’t get any easier as they travel to face upstart Tulane here, noting that UConn has topped out at 24 points – that performance coming against aforementioned Wagner. Tulane was involved in a surprising shootout against Army at West Point last Saturday, prevailing by a 42-33 score. That was actually the Green Wave’s second consecutive shootout win after defeating Houston 38-31 two weeks previous. I don’t think Tulane will be interested in getting involved in another high-scoring affair here. Remember, earlier this season we saw the Green Wave give up just 44 points over a three-game stretch that included a road date with Auburn (they gave up 24 points in that loss). This is a ‘win and move on’ type of situation for the Green Wave and that sets up well for us with an ‘under’ ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 8 pm et on Friday. The Hurricanes are coming off a high-scoring affair last week against Virginia Tech while Virginia is coming off a much-needed bye week following an ugly performance on the road against Notre Dame. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair here. The Canes ultimately put up 35 points and now starting QB N'Kosi Perry threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Hokies but that had everything to do with the fact they were playing out of a 28-0 hole in the second quarter. Miami isn't built to win shootouts and won't be interested in another track meet here. The same goes for Virginia. The Cavaliers are off to a 4-1 start this season but have played a rather uneven brand of football on both offense and defense. With no semblance of a ground game, I'm not sure they're going to be able to generate a lot of offense against a good Miami defense in bounce-back mode here. Defensively, I do think the Cavaliers can limit the Canes offense that isn't as good as it showed on the scoresheet last week. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo OVER 72 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Michigan and Toledo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect it to play out as exactly that on Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. Last year this matchup produced 75 points in a game that wasn't competitive as Toledo rolled to a 51-24 victory. I do feel the Broncos are much better-suited to surviving a shootout this time around, keeping in mind we cashed a ticket on the 'over' in Western Michigan's wild 52-33 loss at Syracuse just two weeks ago. Things predictably settled down in the Broncos 31-15 win over Western Michigan last week but I'm confident the offense will ramp back up again here. Toledo is coming off a hard-fought 28-21 home win over BYU last week - the Rockets really couldn't have performed any better defensively in that one. Just two weeks ago they allowed 35 points in a narrow win at Colorado State. This is a team that can light it up through the air and on the ground and one that should have little trouble ripping through a weak Western Michigan defense. The concern for the Rockets has to be that they'll be in for a letdown here, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and the Broncos will certainly be ready to take advantage of that. This is a high total, but it's high for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're looking at a low total here largely due to the fact that these two teams have just two wins between them and both have been wildly inconsistent, and downright awful at times, on the offensive side of the football. I do have confidence in the quarterback play on both sides, however, and think this total should be set in the 50's - noting that last year's meeting produced north of 60 points in a Georgia Southern blowout. I do anticipate a more competitive affair here. South Alabama has the pieces in place on offense for a breakout with QB Cephus Johnson making strides and showing his ability to move the football on the ground and RB Tra Minter one of the most overlooked and underrated running backs in the country who is also capable of contributing big plays in the return game. Georgia Southern should have little trouble moving the football with QB Shai Werts leading the charge. The Jaguars possess one of the weaker defenses in the nation and didn't have a hope of slowing the Eagles offense last season. I don't see much changing here for the Jags on the defensive side of the football. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘over’ in Ohio State’s last road game, a 51-10 win at Indiana two weeks ago. While I do expect to see another strong showing from the Buckeyes defense, I also look for Nebraska to feed off the energy of a raucous home crowd and at least hold their own defensively for a stretch in this one, which will be enough to keep the final score ‘under’ the inflated total. It’s hard to imagine any Ohio State total not being inflated at this point as the Buckeyes have scored an incredible 214 points through four games, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. I simply see this as the game where things settle down a little bit. I’m not sure Ohio State is interested in getting involved in another shootout with the Cornhuskers after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 victory in this matchup last November. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion OVER 46.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between East Carolina and Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last September as East Carolina pulled out a 37-35 victory. While I’m not anticipating that level of shootout on this occasion, I do think the potential is there for this one to fly ‘over’ the relatively low posted total. Save for a 48-point outburst against FCS squad Gardner-Webb, East Carolina hasn’t been able to get much going offensively this season. It is, however, coming off a victory over William & Mary last week that saw it get a spark from its ground game and I see this as an excellent opportunity to build on that performance against an Old Dominion defense that has been better than advertised but may be in for a letdown here. Old Dominion has dropped back-to-back games at Virginia Tech and Virginia after opening its campaign with a field goal win over Norfolk State. The Monarchs games have been lower-scoring than expected on the whole which certainly helps our cause playing the ‘over’ in this one. Note that we played the ‘over’ in ODU’s 31-17 loss at Virginia Tech earlier this season, a game that fell just short of the total. The Monarchs allowed an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in that game. This is a smash spot for the ODU offense against a Pirates defense that has been crushed in its only two games against FBS competition, allowing a whopping 76 points against N.C. State and Navy. The 42 points ECU allowed at against Navy could have been even worse had the Midshipmen not eased off the gas after building a 39-point lead. Here, I’m anticipating a more competitive game and that lends itself to a high-scoring result. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 61 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced just 41 total points last season and I believe oddsmakers are being very generous putting this total in the high-50’s on Saturday. Texas A&M has exploded against the likes of Texas State and Lamar but has been held at bay in both of its ‘step-up’ games against Clemson and Auburn. Of course, those latter two opponents are two of the best teams in the entire country and Arkansas is far from their level. With that being said this is a strong motivational spot for the Razorbacks at home off a poor showing against San Jose State on this field just last week. I’m confident the ‘Hogs will hold their own defensively but not so sold on their offense which has been completely held at bay in two of four games this season, including a matchup against Ole Miss in which they didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the game’s final two minutes. Last week we saw Arkansas score a touchdown with about a minute left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the first two minutes of the fourth quarter – and that was against a San Jose State squad that had given up 34 points in a blowout loss against Tulsa the game previous. I don’t see the Razorbacks busting out offensively against an Aggies team that is better than their 2-2 record indicates. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech OVER 52 | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. With Virginia Tech coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring contests here in Blacksburg we're dealing with a reasonably low total as the Hokies host the Blue Devils on Friday night. I'm anticipating plenty of offense, however. Note that Virginia Tech has scored at least an offensive touchdown in all four quarters of two of its three games to date this season. Last time out against Furman, the Hokies got off to a very slow start but ultimately rallied to score three second half touchdowns in a narrow victory. Save for a beatdown at the hands of Alabama back in Week 1 (in which it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the second and third quarters) Duke hasn't really been tested defensively with its last two wins coming against North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. Offensively, the Blue Devils haven't really missed a beat without QB Daniel Jones, with Quentin Harris passing for nearly 600 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two games. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 45 points last September but that only serves to keep this total in a reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 53 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in last year's meeting as Navy prevailed by a 22-21 score. Both the Midshipmen and Tigers enter this contest with undefeated records but their early schedules have been admittedly soft. With both coming off bye weeks they'll be eager to get rolling again here, and I'm anticipating a competitive, high-scoring contest. We certainly haven't seen the best from either offense in the early going this season, which is saying something considering Navy has scored 87 points through two games while Memphis has put up a whopping 97 points in its last two contests. While the Memphis ground game is capable of cranking it up against any opponent, I think this is the game where we'll see Tigers QB Brady White move the football at will against the Navy secondary. The question is whether Navy can keep up as a double-digit underdog. I do believe the Midshipmen will find some success offensively with QB Malcolm Perry rounding back into form. Last season was a general disappointment for the Middies offense but they're off to a solid start this year with Perry coming off a 156-yard, four touchdown rushing day against East Carolina last time out, adding two touchdowns through the air as well. I had this total pegged in the high-50's so I'm willing to take a shot at the current number. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met back in 2017 they combined to score just 39 points in a one-point Georgia victory. While many are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, I don’t see it. Yes, Notre Dame is fresh off a 66-point explosion against New Mexico but the Lobos are one of the country’s weakest teams. Prior to that the Irish had their hands full on the road against Louisville, eventually pulling away for a 35-17 win. Georgia has taken full advantage of a fairly weak early-season schedule, scoring a combined 148 points in wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Defensively, the Bulldogs haven’t really been tested but there’s no question this is an elite group. The same goes for the Irish, who save for a couple of lapses have been rock solid through two games. They did give up 17 points against a mediocre Louisville offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that after giving up two touchdowns in the game’s first 11 minutes, they held the Cardinals out of the end zone the rest of the way. Over their last 7+ quarters of action the Irish have allowed just two touchdowns. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | SMU v. TCU UNDER 55.5 | 41-38 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between SMU and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way the ‘under’ sets up in this one as the undefeated Mustangs and Horned Frogs go head-to-head in Texas. SMU has absolutely shredded opposing defenses through three games, racking up 133 points. Keep in mind, those performances came against the likes of Arkansas State, North Texas and Texas State. This will certainly be the Mustangs toughest test to date against a terrific TCU defense. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 20 points through two games. Last time out against Purdue, TCU didn’t allow a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter when the game was already well out of hand. The Horned Frogs will certainly have their guard up against undefeated SMU and its high-octane offense. While the Mustangs aren’t known for their defensive ability and have given up 74 points through three games there is some reason for optimism here. Even when SMU gave up 30 points at Arkansas State in Week 1 it gave up a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes before holding the Red Wolves out of the end zone again until the third quarter. They gave up only two touchdowns in the first 58 minutes of the game against a good North Texas offense two weeks ago. My point is, they’re capable of holding up well for stretches and its not as if TCU is an offensive juggernaut. Last week at Purdue the Horned Frogs scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Even in their home-opener against FCS squad Arkansas-Pine Bluff they managed just one touchdown until the final 10 seconds of the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Auburn and Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup didn’t develop into a shootout last year as Auburn prevailed by a 28-24 score. I do think the potential is there for this year’s meeting to play out a little differently, however. Auburn didn’t exactly come roaring out of the gates this season, needing a big fourth quarter rally to outlast Oregon by a 27-21 score back in Week 1. The Tigers followed that up with an unimpressive 24-6 win over Tulane but then got loose for a 55-16 rout of Kent State last Saturday. I believe that explosive performance last week, in which they scored two offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters, was just what the doctor ordered heading into this showdown. Texas A&M turned in a similar performance last week, blowing the doors off FCS squad Lamar 62-3. I liked the way the Aggies kept their foot on the gas in that contest, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when the game was already completely out of hand. They may need all the offense they can get against Auburn this week. Texas A&M has actually held up quite well defensively through three games, although the loss to Clemson certainly could have been much worse had the Tigers not eased up after building a big second half lead (not to mention the fact that Clemson is still finding its offensive rhythm. Given the early season schedules, we really don’t know exactly how good either of these defenses are. I have more faith in the offenses ability to produce at this stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Western Michigan v. Syracuse OVER 65 | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 63 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Western Michigan and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in Syracuse’s blowout loss at home against Clemson last Saturday night but despite that dud, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Western Michigan will be Syracuse’s opponent this time around and the Broncos are off to an excellent offensive start, having scored 122 points through three games, albeit with most of the damage being done in matchups with Monmouth and Georgia State. Western Michigan was held to only 17 points in its lone road test to date, but that came against Michigan State in East Lansing – a tough challenge to be sure. Credit WMU for scoring a pair of touchdowns and putting together three scoring drives in that contest. Here, the Broncos should find the going much easier against a Syracuse squad that has only been able to slow down FCS opponent Liberty through three games this season. In the Orange’s other two contests they allowed a whopping 104 points against Maryland and Clemson. We saw the Syracuse offense get bogged down last Saturday but that was against one of the best defenses in college football in Clemson. I fully expect a strong bounce-back performance against the Broncos. Note that two weeks ago against Michigan State, Western Michigan allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first quarter alone and six over the course of the game. The Broncos have really had a tough time containing opposing ground games so far this season and will have their hands full again at the Carrier Dome. This one has true shootout potential noting that last year’s meeting produced 97 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
CFB MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Air Force and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We saw a shootout between these two teams last year as Boise State prevailed by a 48-38 score in a wild contest. I expect more of the same as the Falcons and Broncos do battle on Friday night in Boise. We won with Air Force in its outright underdog victory on the road against Colorado last Saturday. That win didn’t come easy as the Falcons coughed up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. This is an experienced Air Force offense that is operating at a high-level running the option. Remember, in its season-opener it put together five touchdown drives in the first half alone, albeit against FCS squad Colgate. Here, the Falcons know they’ll need to put 7’s on the board on most drives in order to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State is off to a perfect 3-0 start this season but after scoring 36 points in its season-opening win at Florida State, it has sputtered a bit, scoring 59 points in its last two wins over Marshall and Portland State, both at home. The last time we saw the Broncos on national TV they managed only 14 points in the victory over Marshall. I look for them to find a lot more success moving the ball against a middle-of-the-road Air Force defense. I liked the way Boise State worked sophomore dual-threat QB Chase Cord into the action last week against Portland State. He essentially took over the game late, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. His presence gives the Broncos offense another element that Air Force will need to prepare for after really struggling defensively in this matchup a year ago. Credit Boise State for giving up just 17 points in its last two games but I don’t believe those results necessarily mean its defense is elite. As a single-digit favorite at home, I don’t think we’re going to see the Broncos run away and hide in this one, and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair on the blue turf. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 56.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. We’ve split a couple of totals plays on games involving Houston this season, playing the ‘over’ on both occasions. Here, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Cougars travel to face upstart Tulane. Despite scoring 92 points through three games this season, the Houston offense really hasn’t been all that imposing. In their opener at Oklahoma, the Cougars didn’t find the end zone until less than five minutes were left in the first half. They turned in a terrific stretch of offensive football early against FCS squad Prairie View A&M the next week but didn’t reach the end zone after the game’s first 20 minutes. Last Friday night against Washington State the Cougars put together two touchdown drives in the second quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until there were two minutes left in the fourth quarter. You get the picture. Tulane is coming off a 58-point explosion last week, but that came against FCS squad Missouri State. Note that the Green Wave have yet to have a quarterback throw for more than 200 yards or anyone rush for 100 yards in their first three contests. Tulane has taken care of business against the opponents it should but scored just six points in its lone loss, a 24-6 setback at Tulane two weeks ago. The Green Wave defense has been as good as advertised, giving up just 40 points through three games, including only 24 at the Hands of Auburn. In that game against the Tigers, they held QB Bo Nix to just 19-of-37 passing for 207 yards and limited lead rusher JaTarvious Whitlow to less than 100 yards on the ground. Houston took this matchup in blowout fashion last year, 48-17. I’m anticipating a much tighter affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 62.5 | 41-6 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Clemson and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m expecting a shootout at the Carrier Dome on Saturday night as Clemson puts its undefeated record on the line against Syracuse. Despite scoring 76 points through their first two games, the Tigers actually haven’t been operating at a truly high level offensively just yet. QB Trevor Lawrence has completed just 37-of-58 passes for 436 yards, two touchdowns and a surprisingly three interceptions through two games but I look for a big bounce-back performance in ideal conditions inside the Carrier Dome on Saturday. After cruising to a shutout win over FCS squad Liberty in its opener, Syracuse got rolled by a 63-20 score at Maryland last week. The Tigers gave up six touchdowns in the first half alone in that game and don’t appear well-suited to slow down the multi-faceted Tigers offensive attack here. We can count on the Orange to at least try to keep pace here, noting that they did score two touchdowns in the first quarter-and-a-half of last week’s game before things got completely out of hand. A return home should certainly help their cause as this team is built for the fast track. Clemson’s defense was certainly up for last week’s showdown with Texas A&M but we could certainly see a bit of a letdown in that regard here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 45 | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Iowa and Iowa State at 4 pm et on Saturday. This has traditionally been a low-scoring matchup with last year’s meeting producing a grand total of just 16 points. Iowa was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected in its season-opener, defeating Miami-Ohio by a 38-14 score. It’s worth noting that there were only 17 points scored in the first half of that contest. Iowa didn’t manage to find the end zone until nearly halfway through the second quarter. Again last week we saw the Hawkeyes offense sputter a bit as it scored two early touchdowns but then went from midway through the second quarter until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter to reach the end zone again. They ultimately won that game by a 30-0 score over Rutgers. Iowa State hasn’t played since pulling out a 29-26 triple-overtime win over FCS squad Northern Iowa back on August 31st. That game saw just 26 points scored in regulation time. Iowa State didn’t register a touchdown until midway through the third quarter. The Cyclones didn’t actually give up an offensive touchdown until the second overtime period in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | UNLV v. Northwestern UNDER 54 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between UNLV and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV is coming off back-to-back relatively high-scoring games to open the season but both of those came at home. After scoring a whopping 56 points in a season-opening win over FCS squad Southern Utah the Rebels were brought right back to Earth in a 43-17 loss to Arkansas State last week. Note that UNLV didn’t actually allow an offensive touchdown in that game until over six minutes into the second quarter and that was against an underrated Arkansas State offense. Once the Red Wolves jumped ahead by a considerable margin the Rebels came unglued. Note that UNLV allowed a touchdown around six minutes into the second quarter against Southern Utah in its opener but then didn’t give up another touchdown until the fourth quarter. This week’s opponent, Northwestern, is by no means an offensive juggernaut. The Wildcats offense really struggled, albeit against a terrific defense, at Stanford in its season-opener. However, defensively give them credit as they allowed just one offensive touchdown in the entire game and that didn’t come until the final four minutes of the first half. Northwestern isn’t really the type of team that is likely to run away and hide, regardless of the level of competition and I don’t think the UNLV offense has enough to help this one ‘over’ the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Arkansas State v. Georgia UNDER 58 | 0-55 | Win | 100 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas State and Georgia at 12 noon et on Saturday. Arkansas State has been involved in back-to-back high-scoring games to open the season but those results weren’t unexpected against SMU and UNLV. Here, the Red Wolves will be taking a major step up in class on the road against Georgia and I don’t expect their offense to thrive as it has in the last two weeks. Keep in mind, last week against a bad UNLV defense, Arkansas State didn’t find the end zone on offense until nearly midway through the second quarter. In the Red Wolves season opener against SMU they scored a touchdown in the first two minutes of the game but then didn’t reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. Defensively, the potential is certainly there for Arkansas State to get torched in this game but I do think its offense can do enough to control the clock somewhat and keep the Georgia offense off the field for stretches. What I’m not convinced of is that the Red Wolves can end those offensive drives with points on the board. Georgia has scored 93 points through two games but 63 of those came against FCS squad Murray State last week. That game essentially turned on an early second quarter fumble return for a touchdown from the Bulldogs. From there they absolutely exploded, scoring four offensive touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch in the second quarter. Through two games, Georgia has allowed only one offensive touchdown and that came on a defensive breakdown early in last week’s game against Murray State (60-yard touchdown pass). Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple OVER 63.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -112 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Maryland and Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. This has the potential to be one of the higher-scoring games on Saturday’s board as far as I’m concerned. Maryland is due for a letdown after lighting up Howard and Syracuse for 142 points in its first two games. I don’t think this is the spot, however, as Temple hasn’t been tested, rolling to a 56-12 win over FCS opponent Bucknell last week. There’s no question the Owls were impressive in that victory as they scored three touchdowns in the game’s first 13 minutes and never let up, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when they were already up by 30 points. Keep in mind, Temple has an experienced quarterback in Anthony Russo and he was on point last week, completing 32-of-41 passes for 409 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Maryland actually gave up two touchdowns in the first quarter-and-a-half against Syracuse last week before a couple of late first half touchdowns of its own put things out of reach. I liked the way the Terps kept pouring it on, scoring a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns after they had already built a 29-point advantage. Expect a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State OVER 52 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas State and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State has feasted on a couple of inferior opponents to open the season, rolling to a 49-14 win over Nicholls State and a 52-0 shutout of Bowling Green. I like the way the Wildcats have gotten off to extremely fast starts, putting together five scoring drives in the first quarter of their first two games, including four offensive touchdowns. That’s certainly a promising start following a dismal offensive campaign a year ago. Ball State transfer RB James Gilbert has been a bright spot, racking up 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. QB Skylar Thompson, albeit against inferior opposition, has seemingly found some rhythm, completing 26-of-35 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Wildcats face a tougher test in SEC opponent Mississippi State, but I do think Kansas State can still keep it rolling offensively. Note that in the Bulldogs toughest test to date, they allowed 28 points against Louisiana-Lafayette. Last week they gave up only 15 points against Southern Miss, and none until less than five minutes were left in the third quarter but it is worth noting that the Eagles drove into Mississippi State territory in two of their first three drives, missing a field goal on one and giving up a fumble on another. Once the Bulldogs build a sizable lead Southern Miss completed abandoned its gameplan and couldn’t get anything more going on offense. Here, I’m obviously anticipating a more competitive affair and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring game between two offenses that have been very efficient in the early going. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston OVER 75 | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington State and Houston at 9:15 pm et on Friday. This matchup will be pegged as a shootout and that’s precisely how I expect it to play out on Friday night in Houston. Note that this game will be played in ideal conditions inside NRG Stadium, the home of the Houston Texans. Washington State is off to a 2-0 start but that was fully expected given it opened against New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. I do like the fact that despite being involved in two blowouts, the Cougars didn’t let up as those games progressed, scoring at least a touchdown in all eight quarters of football played this season. They know they’ll need to score early and often here as Houston has the personnel to match them touchdown for touchdown. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has completed 60-of-74 passes for 884 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception through two games. Houston checks in sporting a 1-1 record, opening with a blowout loss at Oklahoma before bouncing back with a blowout win of its own against FCS squad Prairie View A&M last week. Cougars QB D’Eriq King has not performed particularly well through two games this season but I’m confident he can turn it around. The good news is the Houston ground game appears to be in midseason form and should open things up for King against Wazzu here. Even without King in top form, it took Houston less than a quarter to rack up 24 points last week. That game saw five scoring drives in the first quarter alone. The Cougars were able to ease off the gas pedal in that game, but that won’t be the case here. This total is high, but the number is warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | Kansas v. Boston College OVER 53 | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. High-scoring games should be the norm in games involving Boston College this season and while Kansas doesn’t look like a formidable opponent coming off a 12-7 loss to Coastal Carolina, I do think the Jayhawks can have enough offensive success to push this one ‘over’ the total. Note that Kansas did have RB Pooka Williams back following a one-game suspension last week and he ran for 99 yards on 22 carries. Senior RB Khalil Herbert has run for 170 yards and a touchdown through two games. The Jayhawks know they won’t be able to rely on their defense to keep them in this game as Boston College has exploded out of the gates offensively, scoring nine touchdowns in the first half alone in its first two games. The Eagles have an experienced offense led by RB A.J. Dillon who has ran for three touchdowns already this season. While the Kansas defense has held up well so far, it has faced the likes of Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. This game represents a major step up in class. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Wake Forest at 6 pm et on Friday. Wake Forest is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games (and ‘over’ results) to open the season but I look for this particular contest to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. The Demon Deacons have played two below-average defensive teams in their first two games, Utah State and Rice. Their offense has certainly clicked, putting up a whopping 79 points already but here they’ll face a tougher test in the form of 2-0 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have allowed just 45 points through two games against South Carolina and Miami, so it’s not as if they’ve played FCS pushovers. Against the Gamecocks, UNC gave up a touchdown with just over three minutes left in the first quarter but then held them out of the end zone until there was just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Last week, the Tar Heels didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final 25 seconds of the first half against Miami. On the flip side, the Demon Deacons defense has been up and down but did settle in last week (admittedly after Rice lost its starting quarterback to injury), holding the Owls scoreless in the second and third quarters before allowing a garbage time touchdown once the game was out of hand in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With North Carolina playing on a short week off back-to-back tightly-contested victories, I don’t think it will have any interest in getting involved in a shootout here. Tar Heels QB Sam Howell has attempted exactly 24 passes in each of the first two games. North Carolina has proven capable of controlling the clock by moving the football on the ground and I’m anticipating a similar gameplan here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-19 | West Virginia v. Missouri UNDER 62.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between West Virginia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. These two teams are coming off very different results last week as West Virginia escaped with a 20-13 win over FCS squad James Madison while Missouri fell by a 37-31 score on the road against Wyoming. There are a couple of things to note when it comes to the Tigers wild, high-scoring affair a week ago. Their offense scored two touchdowns in the first quarter but didn’t reach the end zone again until a couple of minutes into the fourth quarter. Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant was terrific for the most part, but he’ll face a tougher test against the Mountaineers defense this week. West Virginia allowed a rushing touchdown late in the first quarter against JMU but then didn’t give up another TD the rest of the way. The Missouri defense couldn’t stop the Wyoming ground game but did do a nice job of completely shutting down the Cowboys through the air. Keep in mind, the Tigers didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until over midway through the second quarter and ultimately allowed only three offensive touchdowns in the game, with two of them coming on long runs of 60+ yards. I don’t expect to see those type of defensive breakdowns back home as a two-touchdown favorite this week. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech OVER 56 | 17-31 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Old Dominion and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a rematch of last year’s wild 49-35 upset win by Old Dominion and I’m anticipating another high-scoring affair. ODU managed only 24 points in last week’s narrow win over FCS squad Norfolk State but keep in mind that was against a quality FCS program. The Monarchs were efficient moving the football, particularly on the ground, as they put together three offensive touchdown drives. Concerning was the fact that their defense sagged when they could have put the game away, giving up two touchdowns in the first 10 minutes of the fourth quarter. Virginia Tech scored offensive touchdowns in all four quarters against Boston College last week but couldn’t hold up at all defensively, giving up five offensive touchdowns in a 35-28 loss. While this isn’t as tough of a matchup by any means, I’m not convinced the Hokies defensive issues can be fixed in a week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with Boise State but missed with the 'under' in the Broncos come-from-behind win over Florida State in what turned out to be a true road game due to Hurricane Dorian last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on the total here as Boise welcomes C-USA opponent Marshall on Friday night. All indications are that the Broncos have no interest in getting involved in another wild, high-scoring shootout here. Head coach Brian Harsin has been emphasizing tackling, ball security and field position in advance of this game (which will be played on a short week after that grueling affair in Tallahassee). It's worth noting that despite allowing 31 points against the Seminoles, Boise State did show the ability to play sound defense for an extended stretch, holding a better offense than they'll face on Friday scoreless over the game's final 34 minutes. Offensively, the Broncos didn't find the end zone in that game until there were just over four minutes left in the first half. Marshall put up 56 points in a blowout win last week, but that came at home against FCS squad VMI. I'll also point out that the Thundering Herd didn't score a touchdown in that game until just over three minutes remaining in the first quarter. The game essentially turned on a punt return touchdown less than two minutes later. From there, the floodgates opened. I certainly don't expect the Broncos defense to wilt the same way the Keydets' did last week. Credit the Marshall defense to limiting VMI to only 201 passing yards last week, not easing off even after building the insurmountable lead early. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma OVER 79 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 60 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oklahoma at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. This total is exorbitantly high, but it is so for a reason. Houston's offense is absolutely loaded this season with QB D'Eriq King back from injury and a wealth of talent around him. Oklahoma may be a college football superpower but its defense hasn't been good in recent years, and this is an awfully tough matchup right out of the gate. The Sooners lose a ton of talent on offense heading into this season but the cupboard is never bare in Norman. After losing Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in consecutive years they won't be turning to an unseasoned freshman - instead it will be veteran QB Jalen Hurts running the offense and I don't expect this unit to miss a beat. The last time these two programs met back in September 2016 a true shootout never developed. I expect a different story to unfold here as both teams should find the end zone at will all night long. Take the over (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State UNDER 52 | 36-31 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Florida State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I expect the offenses to rule the night as these two powerful programs go head-to-head in a key Week 1 matchup. Both teams have some uncertainty at quarterback, even if they are saying all the right things heading in. Boise State turns to a true freshman to run the offense in Hank Bachmeier. He's going to be a good one but how much of the offensive playbook will they put in his hands on night one of the season? Against a defense as fierce as Florida State's? I'm not sure he'll be asked to do too much. James Blackman is the man under center for the Seminoles after winning the job in fall camp. He of course does have experience running this offense but the 'Noles are perennial under-achievers offensively and I'm not convinced the start of the 2019 campaign will prove any different against a formidable defensive opponent in Boise State. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-19 | Utah State v. Wake Forest UNDER 63.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Friday. If this matchup were to take place a couple of weeks from now I might be on the opposite side of the total but here in Week 1, I look for the defenses to be a little ahead of the offenses. Both the Aggies and Demon Deacons are dealing with some key losses on the offensive side of the football. For Utah State, most of QB Jordan Love's top targets are gone from a year ago. So is RB Darwin Thompson. The pieces are in place for the offense to keep rolling, but I do think it's going to take some time, and this isn't an ideal matchup, traveling east to face an upstart Wake Forest squad that has been to three straight Bowl games, and one that took the last meeting between these teams in 2017 by a lopsided 46-10 score. I don't expect to see the Demon Deacons to run wild against the Aggies defense this time around, however. Utah State boasts a stronger defense now, even after losing some key parts from last year's group. Meanwhile, Wake Forest knows that it needs to be better - much better- on the defensive side of the football in order to take a step forward in the ACC this year. I'm confident the 'D' can and will be better, and it all starts with this matchup. Offensively, the Deacons lose their star WR Greg Dortch, who was a do-it-all type that will certainly be missed all over the field. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-19 | Kent State v. Arizona State UNDER 62 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Arizona State at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen fairly consistent money flow in support of the 'over' in advance of this non-conference matchup on Thursday night. At first glance, I can see where 'over' backers are coming from. After all, Kent State had one of the MAC's worst defenses last season - a unit that truly has nowhere to go but up with plenty of experience returning - and also boasts a capable offense led by veteran QB Woody Barrett - a former Auburn transfer. Keep in mind, the Golden Flashes offense tried their best to play fast last season, using the gimmick name 'FlashFast', but still scored more than 26 points in a game against FBS opposition only twice. I expect similar tough sledding here as they travel across the country to face an underrated Sun Devils defense that figures to improve on a campaign that saw it allow just 112 points in six home games last season. On the flip side, the Arizona State offense is ushering in a new era with freshman Jayden Daniels having won the starting QB job. Not only that, but the Sun Devils are missing one of their anchors on the offensive line in Zach Robertson who is away from the team dealing with personal issues. We'll see flashes of brilliance from Daniels on Thursday night, but I'm not convinced we'll see the full scope of the offense in Week 1. Of course, gone are QB Manny Wilkins and WR N'Keal Harry who lit it up in the passing game a year ago. Expect to see plenty from RB Eno Benjamin, but Herm Edwards won't overwork his bell cow should things get out of hand. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 47.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. Miami will be turning to redshirt freshman Jarren Williams to take over as starting quarterback. While I do feel going with Williams was the right move, I'm not certain we'll see him come out all guns blazing against an elite Florida defense on Saturday. Turnovers were the Hurricanes downfall last year and as a result I'm not expecting to see them really open up the playbook for Williams here, especially considering they're in transition on the offensive line after losing their right and left tackles from last season. The Gators offense has the potential to be electric this season but this is a tough opening week matchup against a talented and experienced Hurricanes defense that will be highly-motivated to play well for new head coach and former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Florida's offense only really got rolling in its last four games last season, scoring 35+ points in all four of those contests. Of course, there's a big difference between taking advantage of worn down opposing defenses late in the season and going up against a fresh unit in late August. Keep in mind, like the Canes, the Gators have also suffered big losses on their offensive line, even worse in fact as they lose four starters from last year's team. Both of these teams have everything to play for on Saturday night and I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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12-31-18 | NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5 | 13-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. State and Texas A&M at 7:30 pm et on Monday. This game has major shootout potential with both the Wolfpack and the Aggies featuring capable quarterbacks and dynamic ground games. Both offenses are certainly comfortable in what they do and closed out the regular season on high notes with N.C. State routing East Carolina and Texas A&M prevailing in an overtime thriller against LSU, 74-72 (yes, you read that right). Neither defense is a pushover by any means, but these units have also become somewhat accustomed to getting involved in high-scoring affairs. I believe both teams will come in with the mentality that they need to end drives with 7's rather than 3's in order to prevail in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Monday. Cincinnati put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch this season but it did so against weak opposition. Meanwhile, the Bearcats were held to 13 points against UCF, 26 points in an overtime win over SMU and 17 points in an overtime loss to Temple, just to name a few subpar offensive performances. Virginia Tech isn't the defensive powerhouse it once was, but it can still hang. Like the Bearcats, the Hokies offense didn't do a great job when stepping up in class this season. Prior to scoring 34 and 41 points in their final two regular season games, they had put up 28 points or less in six consecutive contests. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army OVER 59 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Army's last game, its annual clash with Navy earlier this month. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this one, however, even with Houston missing QB D'Eriq King to a knee injury. Keep in mind, in the Cougars last game against Memphis, backup QB Clayton Tune threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. I do believe the Cougars will be able to move the football against this Army defense. On the flip side, Houston is not a good defensive team, getting ripped time and time again over the course of the season. I'm not sure the extra preparation time will have helped all that much as they get ready to go up against the Army triple-option offense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Florida International v. Toledo OVER 57 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida International and Toledo at 12:30 pm et on Friday. We saw a couple of situations where Toledo came out completely flat and was held down offensively this season but for the most part, the Rockets were explosive to say the least and I fully expect to see them get up for this Bowl tilt with Florida International on Friday. The Panthers saw a similar story unfold over the course of the regular season as they put up some gawdy offensive numbers on several occasions but were also held down in a couple of flat spots. This is not such a flat spot as the Panthers will be up for an opportunity to secure a Bowl win against a MAC opponent. There's little reason to anticipate either team holding much back in the Bahamas on Friday - I believe we're dealing with a reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida OVER 51 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Marshall and South Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday. I believe this game has shootout potential, noting that Marshall posted an 8-4 o/u mark during the regular season while South Florida certainly was involved in its share of high-scoring affairs as well. The Bulls limped down the stretch but I don't believe they'll shy away from a shootout on Thursday night. Given they've had no success slowing down opposing running games, they'll be hard-pressed to avoid having to let it rip on offense in order to keep up. If nothing else, Marshall has been consistent putting points on the board this season, putting up at least 20 points in each and every game. The Thundering Herd scored 30+ on five different occasions. I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-08-18 | Navy v. Army UNDER 40.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. The 'under' cashes each and every year in this matchup and while we're dealing with a very low total this time around, I still believe the number will prove to be too high. Army has its best defense in years and comes into this game on an incredible run, having allowed 22 points or less in regulation time in 10 straight games. Only in the Black Knights season-opener against Duke did they give up more than that number. While Navy did score a combined 65 points over its final two regular season games, those performances came against Tulsa and Tulane. They'll be facing a much tougher challenge here. There's no question its been a down year for Navy football as the Midshipmen check in with just three wins to their credit. The familiar matchup should help to keep them competitive, however, and I believe that lends itself to another relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo UNDER 51 | 30-29 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Illinois and Buffalo at 8 pm et on Friday. We haven't seen all that great quarterback play from either of these teams down the stretch. Northern Illinois QB Marcus Childers has thrown just three touchdowns compared to four interceptions over his last six games. Meanwhile, Bulls QB Tyree Jackson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just two of his last eight games. Northern Illinois was once a shoo-in for this game, but not in recent years. Meanwhile, the Bulls will be going Bowling for the first time in a long time, but they want more than that in the form of a MAC Championship. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Friday night at Ford Field and that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring game. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State OVER 66 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
NCAAF MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Utah State and Boise State at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Unlike Boise State’s most recent big MWC test against Fresno State (we won with the Broncos in that game) which turned into a bit of a slugfest, we can expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Broncos welcome the Aggies to the blue turf on Saturday night. Utah State faced a bit of a challenge last Saturday as it struggled to get its usually-potent offense going on the road against Colorado State on senior night. I certainly anticipate seeing the Aggies offense bounce back in a big way here, however. Boise State’s defense does come in playing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable against a top-level opponent. Note that the Broncos have allowed 44 points against Oklahoma State, 27 points against Nevada, 28 points against Colorado State and 38 points against Air Force this season. In other words, the Broncos defense is beatable. On the other side, Boise State’s offense is rolling right now, with QB Brett Rypien having thrown for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions over his last five games. RB Alexander Mattison has racked up a whopping 299 rushing yards on 50 carries over his last two games and has found the end zone seven times in his last five. Utah State is 10-1 on the strength of its offense, not its defense and that should be evident against Boise State on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | BYU v. Utah UNDER 44.5 | 27-35 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between BYU and Utah at 10 pm et on Saturday. While we’re dealing with a low total in this matchup, it’s pretty much par for the course in this rivalry and I believe it’s warranted again this season. BYU comes in having scored a whopping 80 points over its last two games, but those came against lowly UMass and New Mexico State. Prior to those two victories, the Cougars had scored just 22 points combined in back-to-back losses at home against Northern Illinois and at Boise State. Utah has been feasting on offense lately as well, but again, it has had a lot to do with its schedule. The Utes Pac-12 slate was top-heavy to say the least as they opened their conference slate with back-to-back losses against Washington and Washington State, scoring just 31 points in the process. I don’t believe they’re the offensive juggernaut they look like on paper, and they’ll certainly face a tough test against rival BYU on Saturday. Last year’s meeting totaled just 32 points as Utah prevailed by a 19-13 score. Expect to see a defensive tone set once again. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest v. Duke UNDER 59.5 | 59-7 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game, I do feel that the total has simply been set too high. Wake Forest has really cooled off on offense here in November, scoring 24, 27 and 13 points in winning just once in three games. On a positive note, the Demon Deacons defense has done a better job lately, most recently holding Pitt to just one touchdown until over midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago they gave up just one touchdown through three quarters of football against N.C. State. Duke suffered an expected 35-6 loss at Clemson last week but should bounce back here. I don't consider the Blue Devils to be an elite offensive team, however, noting that they've scored fewer than 30 points in six of 11 games so far this season. They've had a few scoring outbursts here and there, but in this particular spot, I feel they'll simply be looking for a bounce-back win following last week's ugly performance. Style points don't mean a whole lot in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Purdue v. Indiana OVER 64.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Purdue and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’m comfortable playing the ‘over’, even at a rather lofty number on Saturday afternoon in Bloomington. Purdue has now dropped back-to-back games, with the latest coming in heartbreaking fashion at home against Wisconsin last Saturday. The Boilermakers offense did keep rolling along in that game, with QB David Blough throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns. Now he faces a sieve-like Indiana defense that has come apart at the seams down the stretch this season. On the flip side, the thinking is that the Hoosiers won’t shy away from another shootout, with Bowl eligibility hanging in the balance. Their offense stalled last week, but that was against mighty Michigan in The Big House. They’ll be taking a big step down in class here against a weak Boilermakers defense. Prior to last week’s poor showing, Hoosiers QB Peyton Ramsey had thrown for over 230 yards in seven straight games. I’m confident Indiana RB Stevie Scott will also have a field day against the Boilers’. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas v. Missouri OVER 59 | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arkansas and Missouri at 2:30 pm et on Friday. There is high potential for a shootout when the Razorbacks and Tigers do battle in Columbia on Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, this matchup produced a whopping 93 points a year ago. While we may not get quite that level of shootout this time around, I still feel we’re dealing with a very reasonable total. Arkansas is rounding out a dismal campaign, having posted just two victories to date. We haven’t seen many signs of life from the Hogs offense over the last couple of games, but those have been in tough matchups at home against LSU and at Mississippi State. They’re certainly capable of busting out given the fact they’ve put up 31 points against Alabama, 33 against Ole Miss and 31 against Vandy this season. Here, they get a Missouri defense that has held up well lately, but has certainly been vulnerable at times this season. The Tigers offense continues to hum along, having scored 111 points during their current three-game winning streak. They should be able to keep on rolling against an Arkansas defense that has given up at least 37 points in four of its last five losses. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Nebraska and Iowa at 12 noon et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair in Iowa City on Friday afternoon. Nebraska is coming off an exceptionally low-scoring result against Michigan State last week, prevailing by a 9-6 score. Keep in mind, just two weeks ago, the Huskers were involved in a wild 54-35 home win over Illinois. The week previous to that they fell just short in a shootout at Ohio State, losing by a 36-31 score. Those type of shootouts have been the norm for Nebraska this season so I look at last week’s result as nothing more than a late season anomaly. Iowa absolutely shredded Illinois last Saturday, rolling to a 63-0 victory. QB Nate Stanley’s streak of three straight games throwing for over 200 yards came to an end, only because of game flow. While the Hawkeyes are known for their defense, they’ve also been involved in their share of shootouts this season, winning 48-31 at Minnesota and losing 30-24 at Penn State and 38-36 at Purdue. Last November, Iowa posted a 56-14 rout of Nebraska. I’m anticipating a more competitive game this time around, and I believe that sets up well for the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU OVER 72.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAF Friday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and SMU at 9 pm et on Friday. This is one of the highest totals on the board this week and the lofty number is warranted in my opinion. When these two teams met last season they combined to score 111 total points. Memphis has of course been involved in shootout after shootout this season. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Tigers last three games. We've seen at least one team score 50+ points in six of Memphis' 10 games overall this season. There's little reason to expect anything different on Friday as the Tigers face an SMU squad that is fresh off a wild 62-50 win over Connecticut last Saturday. After getting bogged down offensively in games against UCF, Tulane and Cincinnati, they've scored a combined 107 points in their last two contests. At least one team has scored 40+ points in seven of the Mustangs 10 games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois UNDER 48 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAF MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Northern Illinois at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Miami-Ohio's big home win over Ohio last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Redhawks face another must-win situation on the road against Northern Illinois. Miami-Ohio has dealt with some key injuries on the defensive side of the football this season and as a result we've seen it get involved in its share of shootouts. However, it's also worth noting that the Redhawks have held six of 10 opponents to 26 points or less in regulation time. They jumped all over a weak Ohio defense last week, scoring 28 first half points, although QB Gus Ragland didn't throw for 200 yards nor did they have a 100-yard rusher in that victory. Now they go on the road and face a tough Northern Illinois defense that has given up 21 points or less in five of its last six contests. We saw the Huskies explode for 38 points last week against Toledo, although I will point out that their offense didn't find the end zone until the final 30 seconds of the first quarter and not again until nearly halfway into the third quarter. Two games back they scored 24 first half points but then their offense didn't reach the end zone again over the rest of the game. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech UNDER 55.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 58.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Duke at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. |
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11-10-18 | Navy v. Central Florida UNDER 63 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 40 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Central Florida at 12 noon et on Saturday. |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 61.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio and Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Miami-Ohio's shootout with Buffalo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Redhawks will return home and know that they'll need to play far better defensively in order to secure a critical fourth victory on the season. With only three games left on the schedule, the Redhawks will need to run the table in order to become Bowl eligible. They face a tall task here as Ohio checks in off three straight wins, scoring an incredible 160 points in the process. Note that Ohio has taken five straight meetings in this series, with the 'under' going 3-2 in those five contests. I like the way the Bobcats have been playing defensively holding three straight opponents to exactly 14 points. I certainly don't expect to see them repeat their 59-point explosion from last week, noting that they had scored 31 points or less in each of their first four road games this season including just 27 and 21 points in two previous MAC road tilts. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 64 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAF ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Georgia Tech and North Carolina at 12:15 pm et on Saturday. Georgia Tech has certainly been involved in its share of wild, high-scoring affairs this season but I don’t believe this one sets up as another shootout between these two familiar opponents. Note that last year’s meeting went 33-7 in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Last week things got carried away early against Virginia Tech but we did see the Jackets settle down and play some good defensive football from the second quarter on. After giving up two early first quarter touchdowns, Georgia Tech held the Hokies to just one touchdown from five minutes remaining in the first quarter until less than four minutes left in the fourth. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in North Carolina’s 31-21 loss at Virginia last Saturday, but only by a couple of points. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Tar Heels return home. Note that their last home game resulted in a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech back on October 13th. On the heels of four straight losses they know they’ll need to tighten things up against the Jackets explosive ground attack. Keep in mind, just two games back, Georgia Tech was held to only 14 points at home against Duke. Take the under (10*). |
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11-03-18 | Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 62 | 16-77 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Louisville and Clemson at 12 noon et on Saturday. We’ve seen Clemson really run up the score on the road this season but it’s been a bit of a different story here at home, where the Tigers have done an excellent job of ‘managing’ games, still winning by margin, but perhaps not going full throttle on offense for four quarters. Their home scores to date are as follows: 48-7, 38-7, 27-23 and 41-7. Meanwhile, in four road games they’ve put up 28, 49, 63 and 59 points. Louisville has reason to show up here after getting flat out embarrassed in a 56-35 home loss to Wake Forest last time out. The Cardinals followed that up with their bye week. Note that they were similarly embarrassed in a 66-31 home loss to Georgia Tech on October 5th and followed that up with a more respectable showing in a 38-20 road loss at Boston College. I don’t believe this will be a competitive football game, and that lends itself to an ‘under’ result with the total sitting in the high-60s. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 48 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ (barely) in Virginia’s 31-21 win over North Carolina last Saturday but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Cavaliers stay home to host Pittsburgh. Virginia has been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games lately and that goes hand-in-hand with its current three-game winning streak. Opponents simply haven’t been able to stay focused on running the football against the Cavaliers lately, largely due to game flow, ie falling behind on the scoreboard early. Here, I do believe we’ll see Pitt’s ground game find some success against the Cavaliers defense. The Panthers have sandwiched two wild, high-scoring games against Syracuse and Duke around a defensive slugfest against Notre Dame. We actually won with the ‘over’ in the game against Syracuse and the ‘under’ against Notre Dame. Save for that strong defensive showing against the Irish, the Panthers defense hasn’t held up well at all this season. This certainly isn’t a favorable spot, traveling on a short week after spending a lot of time on the field against Duke last Saturday. The Cavaliers have essentially been as good as they’ve needed to be on offense lately, and here I believe they’re going to have to generate their share of touchdown drives in order to outlast the Panthers. Note that QB Bryce Perkins has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six of eight games this season and tossed three on only 27 pass attempts in last week’s win over North Carolina. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-18 | Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 61 | Top | 40-52 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
NCAAF AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Temple and UCF at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up in Orlando on Thursday night. We’ve already cashed a couple of ‘under’ tickets in games involving Temple this season and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in this spot. Temple is coming off three straight victories and a bye week. In those three wins, the Owls allowed a grand total of just 40 points. Prior to that we had seen positive glimpses from their defense in dominating wins over Maryland and Tulsa, but there was also an ugly 45-35 loss at Boston College in the mix, not to mention a 36-29 setback at home against Buffalo in their second game of the season. The Knights will arguably offer the toughest challenge the Temple defense has faced so far this year. UCF has scored over 30 points in all seven games this season. With that being said, the only opponents the Knights have gotten into the 40’s or higher against were Florida Atlantic, Pitt and SMU. I would certainly rate the Temple defense higher than all three of those squads. Last time out, we saw UCF get held out of the end zone until nearly midway through the second quarter, and after adding another touchdown four minutes later, the Knights didn’t reach the end zone on offense again until six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. That was against East Carolina. Defensively, the Knights have been dominant for the most part, save for a couple of shootouts against Florida Atlantic and Memphis. It’s worth noting that UCF actually shut out Memphis from two minutes left in the first half on in a wild 31-30 come-from-behind victory, on the road no less, back on October 13th. To put it simply, the Knights can handle the Owls offense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo UNDER 51.5 | 42-51 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Playing the 'under' in these early week college matchups used to be almost automatic but that hasn't really been the case in recent years. With that being said, I do like the way the spot sets up for a relatively low-scoring affair between Miami-Ohio and Buffalo on Tuesday night. For the Redhawks, it's getting late awfully early as they have just three wins to their credit with only four games remaining. In other words, they need to win at least three out of four in order to gain Bowl eligibility. They can ill afford to get involved in a shootout with the Bulls here, as their own defense simply hasn't proven it can slow opposing passing games this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo entered the campaign with high hopes and has lived up to expectations, going 7-1 SU. The Bulls have given up at least 28 points on three different occasions this season, but all three of those games were back in September. During their current three-game winning streak, the Bulls have allowed a grand total of just 47 points. Buffalo will face a stiffer challenge from the Redhawks offense than it did a year ago as Miami-Ohio has senior QB Gus Ragland under center. With a lot on the line for both teams, I tend to think we'll see a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 51 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Virginia at 12:20 pm et on Saturday. This was a low-scoring affair last year as Virginia won by a 20-14 score. I’m anticipating another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday. North Carolina woke from its offensive slumber to get involved in a wild, 40-37 double-overtime loss at Syracuse last week. Keep in mind, that game totaled just 54 points in regulation time. It was also played in ideal conditions inside the Carrier Dome. Prior to that, the Tar Heels had been held to 29 points combined over their last two games. Now they go up against a tough defense in Virginia, as the Cavaliers have allowed only 27 points over their last two games, with those coming in tough matchups against Miami and Duke. Virginia certainly hasn’t gotten off to a 5-2 start on the strength of its offense. Last Saturday against Duke, the Cavaliers scored a couple of touchdowns in the game’s first 16 minutes but then didn’t find the end zone again until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Last week we saw North Carolina hold a potent Syracuse offense out of the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half. The week previous the Tar Heels allowed a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes against Virginia Tech but then not another until over midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Army v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 48 | 37-22 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘under’ in Army’s overtime win at Miami-Ohio last week, but it’s certainly worth noting that the game did stay under the total in regulation time. Army has now put up a whopping 125 points over its last three contests but that’s had more to do with that overtime result, as well as the level of opposition the Black Knights have faced than anything else. Prior to last week’s game, Army had gone up against Buffalo and San Jose State in its previous two games, not exactly two defensive juggernauts. Here, it will face a tough challenge against one of the nation’s most underrated and overlooked defensive teams, on the road no less. Eastern Michigan has held five straight opponents to 27 points or less, despite facing some tough competition over that stretch. We saw a bit of an offensive explosion from the Eagles last week as they put up 42 points in a rout of Ball State. That’s been the exception rather than the rule, however. Prior to that outburst, Eastern Michigan had scored 28 points or less in six consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-18 | Wake Forest v. Louisville UNDER 66.5 | 56-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Wake Forest and Louisville at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at Cardinal Stadium on Saturday afternoon. This lofty total has a lot to do with the fact that Wake Forest has been involved in a number of wild, high-scoring affairs this season while Louisville has gotten into a couple of high-scoring games of its own in recent weeks. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Wake Forest has given up a whopping 101 points in dropping each of its last two games. With that being said, the Demon Deacons draw a favorable matchup here as Louisville has been held to 24 points or less in each of its last four games. Defensively, we saw the Cardinals give up a couple of touchdowns in the first six minutes of the game against Boston College last week but then stiffened up from there, not allowing another touchdown until the third quarter. It was at the very least improvement over their previous game as they were throttled by Georgia Tech, 66-31. On the flip side, we’ve seen Wake Forest’s offense sputter lately, scoring just 20 points combined in its last two games. I’m just not convinced we’re in for a shootout on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 58 | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Florida Atlantic at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Boca Raton on Friday night. This was a high-scoring matchup last year with FAU prevailing by a 48-23 score on the strength of a big game from RB Devin Singletary. We've seen Singletary continue to rack up touchdowns this season but hasn't been nearly as dominant on the ground, averaging just 4.5 yards per rush after gaining 6.4 ypr last season. Opponents simply aren't respecting the Owls passing game the way they have in recent years, instead stacking the box against FAU's dynamic rusher. Note that Louisiana Tech checks in allowing just 3.8 yards per rush this season. The Owls have allowed a whopping 64 points over their last two games but do find themselves in a favorable bounce-back spot against a Bulldogs squad that has topped out at 31 points against FBS opponents this season. Louisiana Tech has actually put up 31 points in each of its last two games, but those two contests came against UTSA and UTEP, two weaker opponents than the one they'll face on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 66 | 14-58 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday. As is the case with many of these projected Thursday night shootouts, I get the sense this one may fizzle out in Morgantown. Baylor has seen the 'over' cash in five of its seven games so far this season but is coming off a low-scoring affair against Texas, resulting in a 23-17 loss. In fact, two of the Bears last four games have totaled 40 points or less so track meets have by no means been the norm for this squad this season. Save for a blowout loss at Oklahoma on September 29th, the Bears have actually held their own defensively of late. Even in a game where they allowed 34 points (in a winning effort) against Kansas State, they gave up just two touchdowns through the first three quarters. Like Baylor, West Virginia is coming off its bye week, which came on the heels of an ugly 30-14 loss at Iowa State. After a red hot start to the season we've seen the Mountaineers offense cool somewhat, relatively speaking in the wild, often high-scoring Big 12. Even against a hapless Kansas defense two games back, the Mountaineers scored three first half touchdowns but then didn't find the end zone again until the final play of the third quarter. We have seen stretches where the West Virginia offense has gone stagnant this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced 74 points, managing to eclipse the total. With that said, we haven't seen back-to-back 'over' results in this series since 2012 and 2013. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan UNDER 68 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
NCAAF MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toledo and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been involved in their share of shootouts this season but I don't necessarily see one developing on Thursday night. Since exploding for 52 points against a hapless Bowling Green defense, Toledo has been held to just 43 points combined in its last two games - both losses. The Rockets managed only two first half touchdowns in last Saturday's loss to Buffalo, and those came on 70 and 80-yard plays - the type of plays I don't expect to see out of them against an improving Western Michigan defense. The Broncos were involved in an unsurprising track meet against Bowling Green two weeks ago but followed that up with a defensive gem against Central Michigan last Saturday, winning that game by a 35-10 score. Western Michigan scored three first half touchdowns in that game before going scoreless until the final minute of the third quarter. Even in their 42-point outburst against Bowling Green, the Broncos didn't find the end zone until over midway through the second quarter. Toledo rolled past Western Michigan by a 37-10 score in last year's meeting. I don't believe the Rockets will come close to approaching that level of output this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State OVER 67.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Oregon and Washington State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I fully expect this to turn into the shootout that most are anticipating on Saturday night in Pullman. Oregon was involved in a slightly lower-scoring game than it is accustomed to last week, posting an impressive 30-27 home win over Washington. That improved the Ducks to 5-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in a real blown opportunity at home against Stanford back on September 22nd. I liked the way the Ducks persevered on offense against the Huskies last Saturday as they still managed to score 30 points despite an off day from QB Justin Herbert. He threw for only 202 yards on 18 completions in that game but should bounce back with a big performance against a very beatable Washington State defense here. After starting the season with a couple of strong defensive showings in cupcake matchups against Wyoming and San Jose State, we’ve seen the Cougars struggle to keep the opposition out of the end zone lately, allowing 124 points over their last four games, good for 31 points per game. Offensively, Washington State is a juggernaut. It comes in rested and ready off its bye week, after scoring a whopping 56 points in a wild, shootout victory over Oregon State on October 6th. QB Gardner Minshew has put up video game numbers this season, throwing for over 400 yards in four of his last five games, totaling 16 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions over that stretch. The Oregon defense has been good but not great, despite facing few truly explosive offenses this season. Keep in mind, the Ducks have only played one of their first six games away from home. In their lone road contest, they allowed 24 points against a relatively weak Cal offense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Kansas v. Texas Tech OVER 58.5 | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 42 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas and Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon. Kansas has been a perennial Big 12 doormat and this year appears to be no different as it enters this matchup off three straight blowout losses to open the conference slate. We have at least seen some signs of life from the Jayhawks offense, however, and I do believe they catch the Red Raiders in a favorable spot here, as Texas Tech is coming off one of its best defensive showings of the season in a big 17-14 road win at TCU last Thursday. It’s certainly well within the realm of possibility that the Red Raiders could let down their guard in this layup spot. Kansas has continued to bomb away in losing efforts against Oklahoma State and West Virginia over its last two games, scoring a combined 50 points in the process. Keep in mind, we also saw the Jayhawks explode for 55 points in a matchup with Rutgers earlier this season. While that wasn’t all that impressive when you consider the opposition, the fact is, the Jayhawks haven’t been able to generate that level of offense against anyone in recent years. Of course, we know that the Red Raiders are capable of on offense. Prior to last week’s defensive battle against TCU (we won with the ‘under’ in that game), they had scored 215 points over their last four games, good for an average of well north of 50 points per contest. The last time we saw Kansas, it gave up three touchdowns against West Virginia before the game was 19 minutes old. The Jayhawks have given up a whopping 86 points over their last two games. This matchup produced 84 points last October as Texas Tech rolled to a 65-19 victory. I’m anticipating a bit more competitive of a game this time around, which lends itself to another high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 50 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We’ve won with the ‘under’ in each of Colorado’s last two games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Buffaloes turned in an awful second quarter last week against USC, allowing three touchdowns. They didn’t give up another offensive touchdown in the game’s other three quarters, however. Two weeks ago they gave up a touchdown in each of the first three quarters against Arizona State but then held the Sun Devils off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Washington is coming off a couple of higher-scoring games than it is accustomed to over the last two weeks. With that being said, the Huskies have scored more than 35 points in a game just once this season, and that came against FCS squad North Dakota back on September 8th. They’re not an offensive juggernaut by any means but do possess a formidable defense. Even last week, Washington didn’t allow a touchdown against Oregon until the final two minutes of the first quarter and then not again until the last 15 seconds of the first half. The Huskies have given up 21 points or less in five of seven games this season. This matchup resulted in a blowout last year as Washington rolled to a 37-10 victory. I’m confident we’ll see the Buffaloes defense hold up much better this time around but I’m not convinced we’ll see Colorado break through against a terrific Huskies defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson OVER 56 | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between N.C. State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Wolfpack and Tigers to battle in an ACC showdown of unbeatens on Saturday afternoon. N.C. State is off to a surprising 5-0 start but did dodge a matchup with West Virginia on September 15th as that game was cancelled. I do like what I’ve seen from the N.C. State offense, particularly its consistency. Note that the Wolfpack have scored 24, 41, 37, 35 and 28 points. They’ve seemingly been getting more efficient with each passing week. Clemson does boast an elite defense but was certainly made to look even better by a disjointed Wake Forest offense last time out. Note that the Tigers have allowed 20+ points in half of their games this season, only holding Furman, Georgia Southern and aforementioned Wake Forest to fewer points. Offensively, there’s little reason to expect any sort of regression from Clemson coming off its bye week. QB Trevor Lawrence continues to get acclimated to the offense while the Tigers run game has been positive dominant. Against Wake Forest, Clemson had three rushers total at least 128 yards on the ground with a touchdown, combining for six scores in total. Last year’s matchup between these two teams was a shootout, with the Tigers prevailing by a 38-31 score. While there’s a chance the Tigers manhandle the Wolfpack offense here, I believe we’re dealing with a reasonable enough total to take a shot with the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-18 | Miami-OH v. Army UNDER 48 | 30-31 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami-Ohio and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in West Point on Saturday afternoon. Miami-Ohio has put up some gawdy offensive numbers lately, scoring 38, 39, 41 and 31 points over its last four games. That’s had more to do with the MAC matchups the Redhawks have faced over that stretch than anything else, however. I certainly don’t expect them to enjoy that level of success on the road against a good Army defense on Saturday. On the flip side, I do believe we’ll see Miami-Ohio continue to thrive defensively. It has given up a grand total of 23 points over its last two games. Even in wild, high-scoring games against Bowling Green and Western Michigan back in late September, there were still positives. Against Bowling Green, the Redhawks didn’t allow a touchdown until over halfway through the fourth quarter. They gave up two first quarter touchdowns against Western Michigan but then didn’t allow the Broncos to reach the end zone again until six minutes into the third quarter. The Redhawks had a difficult time containing the Western Michigan passing game, but won’t be faced with such a challenge here as Army rarely throws the football. Also note that earlier in the campaign the Redhawks held Cincinnati and Minnesota to just 21 and 26 points, respectively, albeit in lopsided losses. Army has scored a whopping 94 points over its last two games, but again, that has had more to do with the matchups than anything else. Last week it caught a terrible San Jose State squad and was held scoreless for a quarter before the Spartans awful run defense got worn down and the floodgates opened. I’m more interested in the Black Knights defense here, noting that they have allowed 21 points or less in all but one game this season – that coming against Duke back in their season-opener. Even in the 34-14 loss to Duke they didn’t give up a touchdown until the second quarter. The last time these two teams met we saw a 35-28 shootout in favor of Miami-Ohio, but that was way back in 2011. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV UNDER 57 | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and UNLV at 10 pm et on Friday. This is a make-or-break game for both of these programs as far as their Bowl prospects go this season. With both checking in at 2-4, neither can afford to suffer a fifth loss with the end of October approaching. We won with the 'under' in Air Force's narrow 21-17 loss at San Diego State last Friday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Since giving up 42 points in a loss at Utah State back on September 22nd, Air Force has allowed a grand total of just 56 points over its last three contests. It did allow 30 points against UNLV in last year's matchup but catches a break here as the Runnin' Rebels are without their versatile QB Armani Rogers, who torched the Falcons for 148 rushing yards and a score in last year's meeting. Without Rogers over their last two games, the Rebels offense has been limited, with sophomore QB Max Gilliam throwing for five touchdowns, but most of those came in garbage time when UNLV was already getting blown out. I do expect a more competitive affair here, meaning the Rebels will have less opportunity to pad their stats against disinterested fourth quarter defense. It's worth noting that opposing defenses have keyed on RB Lexington Thomas in Rogers' absence, holding him to just 87 yards on 18 carries over the last two games. The Falcons triple-option offense is obviously tough to prepare for on a short week but the good news is, the Rebels face Air Force every year in the Mountain West Conference and should certainly have a chip on their shoulder after giving up 50+ points in back-to-back games. UNLV does have a better defense that it has shown over the last couple of games and this is a pretty good bounce-back spot against an Air Force squad that has topped out at 38 points this season - that performance coming against FCS squad Stony Brook back in its season-opener. Take the under (10*). |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State OVER 56 | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Jonesboro on Thursday night. We had to settle for a push with the ‘under’ in Georgia State’s most recent game – a 37-20 road loss to Troy back on October 4th. That was certainly a tough draw for the Panthers against a good Troy defense. Here, they should face a lot less resistance against an Arkansas State defense that just got dismantled by Appalachian State last week. The Mountaineers got off to a sluggish start against the Red Wolves, but eventually settled in and scored three second quarter touchdowns before adding two more in the second half. Appalachian State essentially got whatever it wanted against this Arkansas State defense. One game before that we also saw the Red Wolves hold up well for a stretch before falling apart and allowing three touchdowns from five minutes remaining in the third quarter until the end of the game in a loss to Georgia Southern. Keep in mind, prior to the blowout loss at Troy, Georgia State scored 46 points in a rout of Louisiana-Monroe, finding the end zone four times in the first half alone. The problem for the Panthers has been their defense, which got lit up for three touchdowns before the game was just over a quarter old against Troy and also allowed 34 points or more in each contest during a three-game slide earlier this season. Arkansas State shot itself in the foot time and time again on offense against Appalachian State last week but should find the going much easier against Georgia State. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC UNDER 58 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Colorado and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw a fairly high-scoring game between these two teams last season as USC pulled out a 38-24 victory in early November. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday night as both defenses should come to play in this important Pac-12 matchup. We won with the ‘under’ in the Buffaloes 28-21 win over Arizona State last Saturday and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. In that game, Colorado held Arizona State off the scoreboard from 13 minutes remaining in the third quarter onward. It was another strong showing for the Buffaloes offense with the Montez to Shenault connection coming up big. I do believe USC is capable of slowing that duo down on Saturday night, however. The Trojans manhandled Arizona, on the road no less, last Saturday, holding the Wildcats scoreless until midway through the third quarter in an eventual 24-20 victory. There are still concerns when it comes to the USC offense, however, noting that the Trojans didn’t score again after Aca’Cedric Ware’s long touchdown run in the first five minutes of the third quarter against a weak Arizona defense. After narrowly escaping with a wild 39-36 victory over Washington State in their most recent home game, the Trojans would be wise to avoid another shootout here. Colorado has scored a whopping 78 points in two road games this season, but those came against weak defensive opponents in Colorado State and Nebraska (and the first of those games wasn’t really a true road game as it was played at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver). Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 57.5 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Virginia Tech and North Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Chapel Hill on Saturday night. The Hokies are fresh off a relatively high-scoring affair against an emerging Notre Dame offense last week but I expect to see the scoring settle down here. Remember, just two games back, the Hokies held Duke to just one touchdown through the first three quarters in a 31-14 victory, on the road no less. This is also the team that opened the season with a positively dominant defensive performance on the road against Florida State, delivering a 24-3 victory (we won with the ‘under’ in that game). Sure, there was the anomaly against Old Dominion – a game in which the Hokies suffered an inexplicable fourth quarter defensive collapse – but I’m willing to give them a mulligan for that one. This is a spot where the Hokies need to show up and I’m confident they will, on the defensive side of the football at least. North Carolina has been involved in one shootout this season – a 38-35 home win over Pittsburgh back on September 22nd. Outside of that, we’ve seen the Tar Heels offense struggle. Last time out they suffered a 47-10 loss at Miami (we won with the ‘over’) with the offense looking completely out of sync and unsure of itself at times. This isn’t an ideal ‘get right’ spot by any means. I will point out that the Tar Heels defense did hang in against Miami, in spite of the lopsided final score. They allowed just two offensive touchdowns through the first three plus quarters of that game and only three in total over the full 60 minutes. They’ll be taking a step down in class against the Hokies offense here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-18 | Missouri v. Alabama UNDER 74 | Top | 10-39 | Win | 100 | 57 h 46 m | Show |
NCAAF TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Missouri and Alabama at 7 pm et on Saturday. It’s not easy playing the ‘under’ in games involving the Alabama Crimson Tide but here we are on Saturday night. ‘Bama has some things to clean up after allowing 31 points in another blowout win over Arkansas last week. I fully expect to see the Crimson Tide come out and play a near-flawless brand of defensive football on Saturday night, even against a tough offensive opponent in Missouri. Keep in mind, while the Tide did give up 31 points against Arkansas, it held the Hogs to only two touchdowns through the game’s first three quarters. It wasn’t until things were completely out of hand that the Tide softened up, relatively speaking. We did cash an ‘over’ ticket in a game involving Missouri back on September 22nd – a 43-29 home loss to Georgia. It is worth nothing, however, that the Tigers scored a touchdown with two minutes remaining in the first quarter but then were held out of the end zone until midway through the third quarter. That was actually a relatively low-scoring game early on that turned on a couple of first half defensive scores by Georgia. While there’s certainly a good chance the Tide defense does some scoring on Saturday night, it’s not really something that we can truly account for. Even last week against South Carolina, Missouri scored two touchdowns before the first quarter was 11 minutes old but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the fourth quarter. The Tigers defense has been pretty bad this season but has shown the ability to hold up for stretches. Going back to the Georgia game, they didn’t’ allow the Bulldogs to score an offensive touchdown until nearly four minutes into the third quarter. ‘Bama rolled to a 42-13 win the last time these two teams met back in 2014. A similar outcome isn’t outside the realm of possibility on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |