NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Celtics are absolutely rolling right now, winners of eight games in a row, going 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Keep in mind, they were favored by at least six points in all eight of those contests. They'll face their toughest challenge in weeks on Tuesday night, as they go up against a rested 76ers squad that hasn't taken the floor since posting an impressive double-digit win over the Cavs on Saturday night. It seems as though the Philadelphia bandwagon was cleared thanks to last week's home loss to the Suns. That's not to mention the fact that James Harden remains sidelined after coming over in last week's blockbuster trade with the Nets. Note that Boston is just 13-15 SU on the road this season, including a 111-99 loss here in Philadelphia back in mid-January - a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The 76ers are a modest 16-12 at home this season but have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points per game. Here, we'll note that Boston is a woeful 5-16 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in that spot. Philadelphia on the other hand has gone a terrific 40-26 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday.

I'm not convinced either of these teams want to get involved in a track meet on Monday night. The Warriors will be playing for the fourth time in the last six nights after dropping two of their last three games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests as they uncharacteristically struggled to contain the Knicks and Lakers offenses, allowing 116 and 115 points. Here, they'll catch the Clippers just one day removed from a hard-fought 99-97 win in Dallas to snap a three-game skid. L.A. isn't going to be at full strength for this game with newly-acquired Norman Powell sidelined due to a toe injury and Luke Kennard questionable to play as well. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-8 with the Warriors coming off an ATS loss this season with those games totalling an average of just 209.3 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-4 clip after losing three of their last four games ATS this season, resulting in an average total of just 205.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

We settled for a push with the Clippers in the front half of this two-game set in Dallas. We were somewhat fortunate as the Clips trailed that game virtually the entire way and Luka Doncic went off for 51 points. Here, I'm confident in Los Angeles' ability to make the necessary adjustments and close the gap in a quick rematch on Saturday. Despite Doncic's incredible performance, there actually wasn't all that much separating the two teams on Thursday. Dallas knocked down four more threes (on 16 more attempts) and also made good on five more free throws. Note that the Clippers are a terrific 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points on average in that situation. In 35 previous occasions where Dallas played at home off an ATS win over the last two seasons, it has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. After allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest this season, the Mavs have outscored opponents by just 1.2 points on average (30-game sample size). Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA on TNT Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Bucks are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winners of four straight games both SU and ATS, scoring 130+ points in each of their last three contests. Ordinarily, I might look to fade a team on such a run but not in this spot as Milwaukee wraps up its four-game road trip with a game it will have no difficulty getting up for against the team in defeated in last year's NBA Finals - the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing well. They've lost just one game going all the way back to January 11th. With that being said, they're just an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bucks might be without Grayson Allen for this game after he suffered a hip injury but the Suns continue to play on without underrated contributor Cam Payne as well. While the Bucks might be a little road weary at the end of this trip, the Suns will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Phoenix is obviously one of the best teams in the league - at times THE best team in the league this season. However, the Bucks found a way to make the Suns look very ordinary in reeling off four straight wins (after falling behind 2-0) in last year's Finals. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 7.6 points this season. However, it has only outscored opponents by 4.4 points on average when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Bucks have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play having averaged 120.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points when coming off consecutive double-digit victories over the last three seasons (48-game sample size). Take Milwaukee (10*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Jazz have reeled off three straight wins on their current homestand but can't afford to let their guard down after they had lost 11 of their previous 13 contests. The Warriors, on the other hand, can afford to 'manage' things on a game-to-game basis and will once again sit Klay Thompson for this front half of a back-to-back set at the Jazz and back home against the Knicks. Remember, one week ago tonight the Warriors rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, essentially 'punting' the game against the Spurs but San Antonio was extremely forgiving, coughing up a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a four-point loss. I don't expect the Jazz to be nearly as forgiving on Wednesday. Utah has been one of the most streaky teams in the league from an ATS perspective in recent years and checks into this one having gone 18-7 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that spot. The Jazz have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a tough 94-92 decision in San Francisco back on January 23rd. Utah could have certainly used Donovan Mitchell in that game. In two games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell has contributed 59 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists in just 56 minutes of action. The Warriors have actually taken both previous meetings in this series this season and four in a row going back to last season. That sort of run of success in this series hasn't been common, however. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Golden State won five straight matchups against the Jazz, and that included a four-game series sweep in the playoffs. Look for Utah to get back at the Warriors on Wednesday. Take Utah (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I don't think a lot of bettors are rushing to back the 'over' in this low-key Tuesday non-conference affair. With that being said, I love the way the situation sets up. The Mavs have let their defense do the talking in their last two games, holding the 76ers and Hawks under 100 points in fairly comfortable victories. Here, I think Dallas will need its offense to do some of the heavy-lifting, noting that the Pistons have actually scored over 100 points in nine of their last 10 games, employing an up-tempo style, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games. Keep in mind, Detroit scored 117 and 105 points in a pair of matchups with Dallas last year with both of those contests flying 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-11 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored 105 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 219.1 points. Better still, the 'over' is 12-4 with the Pistons off consecutive games scoring 105 points or less, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. As for the Mavs, the 'over' is a long-term 70-45 when they come off consecutive home victories, which is also the case tonight. The Mavs haven't been forced to play on consecutive nights since January 29th and 30th and inexplicably won't do so against until the third week of March. In other words, there's no need for them to 'manage' this game in the same way the Warriors did last night (as I noted in my analysis of that play on the GS-OKC 'under'). While Dallas is missing some key contributors, including Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., it has still managed to score more than 100 points in six straight games. It's worth mentioning that the Mavs are also without one of their best defensive players in Maxi Kleber. The Pistons aren't slowing anyone down these days, allowing over 100 points in 12 consecutive contests and will be hard-pressed to improve on last year's two performances against Dallas in which they gave up 127 and 115 points. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is 4-1 with the Pistons playing on the road off consecutive 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

This is a game that Golden State can and likely will 'manage' as it begins a stretch of three games in four nights (in three different cities) between now and Thursday. The Warriors have been lighting it up offensively but actually check in having allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Considering they've only allowed four opponents to shoot better than 50% all season, that's notable. What better opponent to button things up defensively against than Oklahoma City? The Thunder have been held under 100 points in five of their last nine games overall and average just a shade over the century mark in terms of points per game at home this season. Oklahoma City is at home playing its third game in four nights tonight and doing so without a number of key contributors with the most notable being Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Lu Dort remains questionable to play due to a nasal fracture but it does sound more likely that he'll be able to go. Nevertheless, the Warriors have held the Thunder to just 98 and 82 points in two previous meetings this season. In fact, they've held the Thunder under 100 points in four straight meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-14 with Golden State in the role of favorite this season and 32-15 in its last 47 games when playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-17 when the Thunder seek revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Pacers are coming off consecutive home losses, including an ugly upset defeat at the hands of the Magic but have scored over 100 points in 11 straight games and catch the Cavs in a tough spot, as a home favorite off an outright underdog win in Charlotte on Friday. Note that Cleveland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite. The Pacers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Cleveland and 52-29 ATS when coming off a home loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Indiana (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in the Thunder's 96-93 win in Portland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The pace was there but neither the Thunder or Blazers shot well in last night's game. In fact, both teams shot sub-40% from the field. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. The Thunder are going to need to perform better offensively if they want to secure a third straight win as the Kings have scored 112 and 114 points over their last two games, most recently shooting north of 52% in a tough road game at Golden State on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, the Kings have allowed at least 103 points in 18 consecutive games. Even with the Thunder's flaws offensively (noting they're without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander), they should benefit from facing a Sacramento squad that allows just under 112 points per game at home this season. Considering Kings home games have averaged 221.6 total points this season and four meetings between these two teams here since the start of 2020 have totalled 220, 224, 228 and 228 points, I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

These two teams just met on Monday night in Oklahoma City with the Thunder rolling to a 98-81 victory - one of the lowest-scoring games for both teams this season. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday night in Portland, however. Oklahoma City continues to play on without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander among others, but it does bring some confidence to the table off consecutive wins over the Blazers and Mavs. While the Thunder did hold Portland to just 81 points earlier this week, they've proven to be a considerably weaker defensive team on the road, where they allow 2.3 points per game above their season average and have had no luck controlling tempo, allowing opponents to get off an average of 93 field goal attempts per game away from home. In Monday's matchup, Portland knocked down just 7-of-38 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line only eight times. Perhaps that sleepy performance shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was playing the second of back-to-backs after a wild 130-116 loss in Chicago the night previous. A return home should help the Blazers cause, noting they average 3.5 points per game above their season average and make good on an average of 15 threes while getting to the free throw line 23 times per contest. Those are far more encouraging numbers than what we saw in OKC on Monday. The Thunder are undermanned right now but I'm confident guys like Lu Dort, Tre Mann and Josh Giddey can continue to pick up the slack. While the Blazers have held consecutive opponents under 100 points, that could be chalked up as an anomaly as they had given up over 100 points in 10 of their previous 11 games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-5 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average of 233.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Portland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 231.2 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Warriors are absolutely rolling offensively right now. Even last time out, in a game in which they sat Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, they still managed to post a 30+ point fourth quarter in a stunning 124-120 win over a full strength Spurs squad (we unfortunately lost with San Antonio +2.5 after playing it before the news of Curry and Wiggins' absence came out). Here, there's little reason to expect anything other than an offensive onslaught against a Kings squad playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in four nights, in three different cities. Note that the Kings have allowed over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. They did manage to upset the Nets at home last night, however, and should carry some confidence into this one as a result. For their part, the Warriors have scored 130, 124, 110, 122 and 124 points over their lats five games, clearly benefiting from Klay Thompson shaking off the rust, and the re-emergence of Andrew Wiggins as a go-to scorer. On the flip side, Golden State has now given up over 100 points in four straight games. This will be a rematch of a mid-December meeting between these two teams that went the way of the Warriors 113-98. Note that the 'over' is 36-23 with the Kings seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 234.1 points. The 'over' is also 33-18 with the Kings coming off six or seven losses in their last eight games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 231.0 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This one sets up nicely for the 76ers as they look to avenge a 117-98 loss in Washington on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (we won with the Wizards in that game). Washington is in the second of back-to-backs after fading late in a 14-point loss in Washington last night. The Wizards scored just 98 points in that game despite getting a season-high 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting from Montresz Harrell off the bench. Already without Bradley Beal, the Wiz also lost Thomas Bryant in that game. Bryant isn't generally a major factor but he does eat 15-20 minutes per game and did contribute 15 points in Washington's win over Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers managed to outlast the Grizzlies here on Monday, despite giving Joel Embiid the night off. Embiid should be back for this one. Note that while Philadelphia has scored over 100 points in seven straight games, Washington has been held under the century mark in three of its last four and things aren't likely to improve until Bradley Beal can return. Prior to that sleepy matinee affair in Washington on MLK Day, the Sixers had put up 117, 129, 114, 132, 120, 125, 127 and 141 points in their previous eight meetings with the Wizards. Note that the Wiz have given up an average of 120.8 points when playing the second of back-to-back road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Spurs essentially 'punted' Sunday's game in Phoenix, sitting Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, yet still managed to give the Suns a serious run in an eventual five-point loss. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, with the Warriors in a back-to-back spot off a double-digit win in Houston. Klay Thompson won't play on Tuesday. The Warriors have played at least every other day since January 9th so it's obviously been a bit of a grueling schedule. As much as they would like to get some revenge for an earlier home loss against the Spurs, I'm not convinced we'll see them go 'flat out' in this one. While the Spurs are just 10-16 at home this season, they've actually outscored their opponents by 0.7 points on average. Having faced the Grizzlies, Bulls and Suns over their last three games, the Spurs are certainly battle-tested heading into this one. I look for them to give the Warriors all they can handle on Tuesday. Take San Antonio (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

The Kings have endured a miserable road trip so far, losing all four games, but managing to go 2-2 ATS. They enter Monday's game on a season-long six-game losing streak but I fully expect them to hang tough against the struggling Knicks in this one. Keep in mind, Sacramento has taken quality opponents in the Bucks and most recently the 76ers down to the wire on this trip. Here, they catch a Knicks squad that has lost six of its last seven games, going 1-2 SU and ATS as a favorite over that stretch. On nine previous occasions, the Kings have played on the road off a straight-up loss but ATS cover as an underdog over the lat two seasons, and in that situation they've lost by just 2.3 points on average. That's certainly an improvement over their overall performance away from home this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 8.2 points while going 6-17 SU. On the flip side, the Knicks have only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.8 points when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (60-game sample size). Take Sacramento (10*).

NBA Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

This first meeting between these two teams totalled just 176 points back in mid-November and I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high as well. This is the start of a grueling week for the Cavs as they'll play five games between now and next Sunday. I can certainly see them 'managing' this one knowing they'll be back on the floor at home against the Pelicans tomorrow night. Detroit checks in having scored over 100 points in five straight games, although it just barely got over that number in three of those games. That marks a season-long streak of the sort for Detroit, one that should be in jeopardy against the Cavs on Sunday. Note that Cleveland has held its last three opponents to just 99, 93 and 87 points and comes into this game well-rested having not played since Wednesday, when it rolled to a 115-99 win over the Bucks at home. While the Pistons are by no means a top-flight defensive team, they have managed to hold opponents to 4.1 points per game below their season average here at home. Like the Cavs, they're rested, playing just their second game in the last five days. Take the under (10*).

NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

I look for the Grizzlies to 'manage' this game after securing a double-digit win over the Jazz on this same floor last night and before heading out on a three-game road trip beginning on Monday night in Philadelphia. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of four games in a row including that stunning setback at home against the Clippers after leading by 30+ on Tuesday. The Wiz couldn't buy a basket when they needed it most in the fourth quarter in that one and are just one game removed from an ugly 87-point effort against the Celtics. Keep in mind, Washington averages 2.7 points below its season scoring average on the road, where its games have totalled an average of just 214.6 points. Here, we'll note that the Grizzlies have posted a 1-13 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 213.0 points. That's worth noting given the most recent meeting between these two teams went the way of the Wizards by a 115-87 score in Washington back in early November with that contest easily staying 'under' the 220.5-point total. We're dealing with an even higher number here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*).

NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Jazz continue to struggle, losers of nine of their last 11 games entering Friday's showdown in Memphis. They check in off consecutive hard-fought losses against the Suns. While they're on a three-game losing streak, those three losses have come by only a combined 16 points. Utah is always tough on Memphis. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time the Grizzlies were favored in a matchup in this series. Memphis was red hot in late December into early January. However, it checks in just 3-3 SU and ATS over its last six contests. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies were held to 91 points or less on two occasions. On the flip side of that, Memphis has allowed north of 100 points in 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games. Here, we'll note that the Jazz are a long-term 136-99 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games, which is the case here. I don't expect them to let the Grizzlies off the hook easy as they look to open this road trip on a positive note. Take Utah (10*).

NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday.

I'm high on both of these teams entering this nationally-televised matchup on Thursday night. While we're dealing with a fairly high total at first glance, I believe it will prove too low. The T'Wolves have now given up over 100 points in each of their last 18 road games. They're giving up just shy of 115 points per game away from home this season. Golden State is coming off its second highest-scoring performance of the season, putting up 130 points in a rout of the Mavs two nights ago. Klay Thompson appears to be getting more comfortable with each passing game (he had actually sat the previous two games before Tuesday's blowout win). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 64-29 the last 93 times the Warriors played at home seeking revenge for a 20+ point loss, as is the case here after they suffered a 119-99 setback in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Warriors elected to rest a number of their starters in that game at the tail-end of a four-game road trip. The T'Wolves are playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now, having scored 108 points or more in nine straight games. They're just one game removed from a 136-point outburst against Brooklyn. There's little reason for them to shy away from the challenge at hand here as the T'Wolves have scored 108, 111, 126, 110 and 119 points in five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2021. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 in Minnesota's last 33 games when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 235.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We just saw these two teams combine to score 224 points in Phoenix two nights ago. The Jazz were undermanned but battled hard in a tight six-point loss. While they're getting healthier, they're still missing a big part of their offense in the form of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. The Suns check in having allowed over 100 points in five straight games, matching their longest such streak of the season. Note that the only other time that happened, they allowed just 94 points in a blowout win in Memphis in their next game - a contest that easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching just 213 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-17 when the Suns play on the road with a total of between 220 and 229.5 points over the last three seasons. In fact, the 'under' is 14-8 in all Suns road games this season. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing only 94 points in a game against the Warriors that totalled just 186 points in San Francisco. Utah doesn't have the weapons to prevail in a track meet against the Suns right now and it knows it. Note that the last meeting between these two teams in Utah totalled only 201 points. Take the under (10*).

NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Fading the Nets fell just short of my card on Sunday, a regretful decision as they ended up losing by double-digits as a short underdog in Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Brooklyn as it looks to bounce back from that loss at home against the Lakers. Simply put, I'm not buying what Los Angeles is selling right now. Yes, the Lakers are expected to have Anthony Davis back on the floor for this game but how much he can contribute in his first game back remains to be seen. Los Angeles is fresh off a beatdown in Miami on Sunday (it ultimately rallied late to make the final score far less unflattering). The Lakers are just 2-5 SU and ATS over their last seven games and find themselves four games under .500 on the road. The Nets are a woeful 5-17 ATS here in Brooklyn this season but the problem certainly hasn't been failing to cover spreads in an underdog role. In fact, the Nets have been listed as a home underdog just once previously this season and ultimately won that game 114-105 over the 76ers back on December 16th. It does appear that Brooklyn may have put its pointspread woes behind it in the short-term picture, entering this game having gone 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Of course, the Nets won't have Kyrie Irving for this game, as is the case when they play at home, but that's certainly been factored into this line. I look for James Harden to relish the opportunity to step up, especially off a poor performance on Sunday in Minnesota, and dispatch the struggling Lakers. Take Brooklyn (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

So many people wrote off the Clippers after Paul George was lost to injury, with Kawhi Leonard of course already sidelined for the season. This is a well-coached team that is by no means devoid of talent, however, and we've certainly seen that as they've gone 5-3 ATS over their last eight games, including an upset win in Philadelphia on this road trip. The Wizards have been a train-wreck from an ATS perspective, going 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. While this should be an ideal bounce-back spot in theory as they come in off of three straight home losses and try to salvage the finale of their current homestand, it's also a prime bounce-back spot for the Clippers coming off an eight-point loss in a sleepy matinee affair against the Knicks on Sunday in Manhattan. Here, we'll note that the Clips are 29-16 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points in that situation. As for the Wizards, they're a woeful 7-15 ATS as a favorite this season. Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Antonio at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the 76ers and Spurs on Sunday evening as both teams look to bounce back from disappointing losses last time out. Philadelphia blew a big lead in a 102-101 home loss to the Clippers on Friday. The Sixers should know better than to take their foot off the gas but that's essentially what happened in that contest. While they're generally a solid defensive team, they've allowed over 100 points in three straight games and figure to struggle to contain a Spurs offense that has put up over the century mark in six straight games and averages just shy of 114 points per contest at home this season. To say that San Antonio has had its hands full with the Sixers offense in recent meetings would be an understatement. It has allowed 122, 115, 132, 134, 113 and 119 points in the last six matchups in this series going back to the start of 2019. Interestingly, the Spurs have been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing opponents to score 112.8 points per game on 46.5% shooting. The 'over' has gone 10-2 with San Antonio in the role of home underdog this season with that spot producing an average total of 226.4 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We won with the Nets as a short underdog in Washington two nights ago and were fortunate to do so as they did everything they could to cough up the lead in the fourth quarter. Here, I'll go the other way and fade the Nets as they continue their road trip in San Antonio. The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 121-119 overtime loss in Brooklyn back on January 9th. They were in a tough spot on that day, playing near the end of a long eastern road trip but battled hard and ultimately forced overtime before falling by a bucket. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is 22-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Nets are a woeful 3-13 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscored by 4.7 points on average in that situation. While the Spurs are just 2-3 on their current homestand there's been no real shame in losses to the Rockets (who have been playing their best ball lately), Cavs and Suns. Take San Antonio (10*).

NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This total has been dropping in our favor, not surprisingly, as bettors realize the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday night. I'm expecting nothing short of a track meet in Salt Lake City. The Rockets are playing better basketball than they had been, recording two wins in their last three games, scoring 128, 114 and 118 points over their last three games. They're as healthy as they've been all season and should come out with an attacking mindset against a suddenly-struggling Jazz squad. Utah has lost five of its last six games and has posted its two lowest-scoring games of the season over its last three contests. Even without Mitchell, this is a fine 'get right' spot for the Jazz, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. The Rockets are one of the league's worst defensive teams and check in having allowed 130, 141, 111, 124, 126 and 112 points over their last six games. To say the 'over' has been a solid bet in Rockets games would be a massive understatement as they've posted a 21-7 o/u record over their last 28 games. While Utah carries a reputation of being a solid defensive team, it has actually given up over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. The 'over' is 20-9-1 in the Jazz's last 30 contests. Finally, I'll point out that the last meeting between these two teams here in Utah took place last May and totalled a whopping 240 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Monday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with the Wizards in this game as they look to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing home loss to the undermanned Blazers, and snap a two-game skid in this series with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off an outright underdog win in Miami on Saturday. I don't need to tell you that wasn't really a true 'upset'. The 76ers are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams and they're coming off consecutive wins over the Celtics and aforementioned Heat. I believe a letdown may be in order here, however. While the Sixers are 16-8 on the road this season they've actually only outscored opponents by 1.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in one of their most favorable spots here, having gone 33-19 ATS in their last 52 home games when coming off a loss. Bradley Beal may be back for the Wiz this afternoon but even if he's not I like the way this spot sets up. Consider it a bonus if he's able to go. Take Washington (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

After being held down offensively (relatively speaking) in consecutive games against top-level defensive teams in the Bucks and 76ers, I look for the Hornets to bust out in this one (noting that they're coming off consecutive sub-110-point scoring performances for the first time since mid-December). Charlotte has scored 120 and 106 points in the first two meetings in this series this season. Note that on the latter occasion, the Hornets shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range. Perhaps they could be excused for that performance as they were playing their third game in five nights on the road. The Magic aren't exactly shooting the lights out right now but they are expected to get an offensive boost with the likely return of Jalen Suggs on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 48-30 when the Magic seek revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and Charlotte just happens to be one of the most forgiving defensive teams in the league, giving up an average of 115.5 points per game. The last time these two teams squared off here in Charlotte, they combined to score 234 points last May. There's little reason to expect the Hornets to 'manage' this game and perhaps hold a little something back as they will have the entire weekend off before heading to New York for a date with the Knicks on Monday. Charlotte averages 118.3 points per game when playing before two or more days off this season. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

I love the way this one sets up for the Timberwolves. They're coming off a loss as a favorite in New Orleans two nights ago, snapping their four-game winning streak. Note that Minnesota is 23-12 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a road loss, as is the case here, outscored by just 3.8 points on average in that spot. It may come as a surprise but despite their 9-11 SU record on the road, the Wolves have gone 13-7 ATS. That's despite all of their key contributors in and out of the lineup due to illness or injury. The Grizzlies are in high favor right now, having won seven straight games, culminating with a 116-108 win over the mighty Warriors two nights ago. Not surprisingly, bettors are lining up to back them on Thursday and we've seen this line rise by a full point since opening (at the time of writing). I like the Grizzlies, but I like backing them a whole lot more in the role of underdog or short favorite. That's simply not the case here, noting as well that they lost the most recent meeting in this series by 43 points back in late November and their last two wins over the T'Wolves have come by relatively short margins of seven and four points. Take Minnesota (10*).

NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the second in a little over a week. Last week's game went the Lakers way by a 122-114 score in Los Angeles. Naturally, that high-scoring 'over' result is leading to a slightly higher posted total for this one, but I believe it's the wrong move. While the Lakers have not surprisingly been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, they've also been a stronger defensive team - at least from a points per game allowed perspective. The 'under' checks in a profitable 9-7 in their 16 road contests to date, including a matchup between these same two teams here in Sacramento back in November that totalled just 209 points. The Kings have seen the 'under' cash at a 15-9 clip at home this season and enter this game playing a rather uneven brand of offensive basketball, having scored 102, 111, 88 and 108 points over their last four games with the 'under' cashing in three of those contests. The Lakers have of course seen the 'over' cash in three consecutive high-scoring affairs but I do think we have a 'catalyst for change' at play here as they hit the road, and do so off a disappointing loss against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 24-12 in the Lakers last 36 road games when coming off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 215.3 points. The 'under' is a perfect 9-0 in the Kings last nine games when coming off a game in which they covered the spread but failed to win outright, which is the situation here off Monday's narrow home loss to the Cavs. Take the under (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Suns simply haven't been the same spread-covering juggernaut they were last season, checking in at 30-9 SU but just 21-18 ATS so far this season. They enter Tuesday's matchup in Toronto having gone just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and an even 9-9 ATS over their last 18 contests. The Raptors on the other hand have reeled off six consecutive wins and own a terrific 12-3 ATS mark over their last 15 games. There was a sense of 'here we go again' in Toronto early in the campaign following last year's championship hangover, but credit the Raps for coming together and turning things around, despite plenty of key absences along the way. They're relatively healthy now and will have revenge on their minds here after getting swept in the two-game season series with the Suns last year. Keep in mind, they were competitive in both games, losing by four points here at home and eight on the road. Phoenix managed to go 2-0 ATS in those contests thanks to laying 3.5 points or less in both. While most will expect a big bounce-back performance from the Suns off Sunday's blowout loss at home against the Heat, I'm no so easily convinced. They've shot 41.1% or worse from the field in three of their last five games and have also inexplicably allowed two of their three highest point totals of the season over that stretch. After this game the Raptors will have a couple of days off before a five-game road trip. While I'm not going to make a habit of fading the Suns (we've actually cashed numerous tickets in support of them this season), I do think this is a favorable spot to do so. Take Toronto (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The 'foul mood' narrative is weighing heavily with a lot of bettors in this one as the Jazz enter this game off back-to-back losses in Toronto and Indiana. We've seen the line shift a point-and-a-half in favor of Utah over the course of the morning and I believe it's gotten out of hand. As bad as the Pistons have been this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 5.7 points here at home. They come into this game having won three of their last five games overall and have gone an even 6-6 ATS over their last 12 contests. As for the Jazz, they're missing a number of key contributors and not only enter off consecutive SU losses, but have gone a miserable 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games. In three meetings since the start of 2020, the Jazz's largest margin of victory in this series has been 12 points, and that came at home in a game where they were favored by 13. The last time Utah played here in Detroit it was favored by just 8.5 points and won by 10 last January. Take Detroit (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday.

The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

Something has to give in this one as the Hawks try for their first winning streak since reeling off seven consecutive victories back in November while the Lakers try to post a fourth straight win for the first time this season. On a positive note for the Hawks, they have now won two of their last three games for the first time since that aforementioned winning streak, despite dealing with a multitude of Covid and injury-related absences. Trae Young is currently questionable to play on Friday due to back soreness. While I do expect him to play, I still like backing the Hawks in an underdog role here even if he doesn't (albeit with a lesser wager depending on the number). On the two previous occasions where the Lakers posted three straight wins this season they went on to lose their next game outright as a 10.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma City and as a 1.5-point road favorite against Minnesota. The Lakers are just 11-24 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.4 points on average. Worse still, they're a woeful 2-12 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same period, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. While the Hawks are a losing team on the road this season at 9-11 SU, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 points in those games. The Lakers on the other hand are 13-10 SU at home but have actually been outscored by 0.3 points on average - a big reason why they're a miserable 8-15 ATS here in Los Angeles this season. Take Atlanta (10*).

NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Knicks in the first meeting between these two teams way back in October before passing on their next matchup in December - a game New York lost by seven points in Boston. Here, I won't hesitate to get behind the Knicks again as they look to build some positive momentum off a win over the Pacers two nights ago. New York will be without both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose for this one. I don't mind that as it allows Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett to step up, just as they did all last season. The Celtics have been a disappointment for the most part again this season and we just cashed a ticket fading them in their outright loss to the Spurs at home last night. Most will likely be looking to back Boston in this bounce-back spot but I don't see it. Note that the Celtics are just 7-12 SU on the road this season and check in a miserable 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlantic Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points. New York on the other hand is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take New York (10*).

NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Often times we see teams rise to the occasion without their best players and I believe that will be the case with the Heat on Wednesday as they look to snap a two-game losing streak with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines. Of course, tonight's opponent has its own injury issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum remaining out. The Blazers did step up on Monday, securing a wild 136-131 come-from-behind win over the Hawks with Anfernee Simons going off for 43 points. Don't count on a repeat performance here, noting that Portland has won just four of its last 18 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Blazers right now as they've given up 130+ points in three of their last four games, allowing five straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the field. Even without Butler, the Heat still have Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro capable of stepping up and taking advantage of the Blazers dismal defense. Here, we'll note that Miami is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.7 points in that situation. Take Miami (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*).

NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I can't help but think this game means very little to the Lakers in the grand scheme of things. They know they can't match up with the Suns right now, not with Anthony Davis among those sidelined and Lebron James less than 100% healthy. The Suns welcomed Devin Booker back on Sunday and he filled the statsheet in only 26 minutes of action. While Booker was sidelined we saw the Suns continue to stack up wins with a number of other players picking up the scoring slack in his absence. I believe Phoenix is better for it. The Suns have been a terrific positive momentum play in recent years, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following consecutive double-digit wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a miserable 20-36 ATS in their last 56 home games and limp into this game off a 1-2 road trip in which the only win came against a Luka-less Mavs squad. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 11 straight meetings in this series. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

This is the highest total on Friday's NBA board (at the time of writing) and it is that way for a reason in my opinion. The Hornets are getting involved in track meet after track meet right now. Five of their nine highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last seven games. That's come at the expense of their defense, however, as they've also allowed six of their nine highest point totals of the season in their last nine games. Here, they'll be facing a desperate Blazers squad that has lost seven games in a row, despite welcoming Damian Lillard back to the lineup late last week. Since his return, they've scored 111, 107 and 103 points but lost all three games. After shooting a miserable 37.8% from the field in Wednesday's 10-point loss against Memphis, I expect a positive response here. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 the last 18 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 233.0 points. The 'over' is also 20-8 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, with that spot producing an average total of 233.8 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of six of their last seven games, going 0-6-1 ATS over that stretch. Thursday's date with the Suns, on a back-to-back no less, doesn't figure to be the 'get right' spot they're looking for. Phoenix is still without Devin Booker although his return is getting closer. The Suns keep rolling along regardless, winners of three of their last four games despite missing DeAndre Ayton for part of that stretch as well. Ayton returned on Tuesday and played a big part in a 111-107 overtime win in Portland. I don't expect the Suns to face nearly as much resistance against the Wiz on Thursday. Washington got 29 points from Deni Avdija and Montresz Harrell off the bench and Bradley Beal scored 30 points for the first time in five games (and only the fourth time this season) yet still lost by 14 points in Sacramento last night. Here, we'll note that Washington has allowed a whopping 120.9 points per game the last 51 times it has played consecutive road games, as is the case here as it continues a long six-game trip. The Suns, meanwhile, are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo among others on Wednesday night. No one is going to feel sorry for the defending champs though. This game opens a six-game in 11-day stretch for Milwaukee. Off a double-digit loss in Boston two nights ago, I look for the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor. The Pacers check in having won three of their last four games. All three of those wins came in the role of favorite. They lost by two points against the Warriors two nights ago so most will expect them to have little trouble taking the undermanned Bucks down to the wire in this one as well. I'm not so sure. Milwaukee has owned the Central Division lately, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 matchups against divisional foes. It has also taken six straight meetings against Indiana, winning all six of those games by at least nine points. Note that the Pacers check in a miserable 3-10 on the road this season. The fact that Giannis will miss this game isn't lost on the oddsmakers. The Bucks are still being favored for a reason in my opinion. Take Milwaukee (10*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the 'under' in the Suns 111-105 loss to the Paul George-less Clippers last night. Phoenix has lost only five games all season but two of those have come in its last four games. Going back to the start of 2020, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. Phoenix won here in Portland by a 127-121 score last March but that was on the strength of a lights-out 59% shooting performance. The Suns of course won't have the services of Devin Booker once again for this one. DeAndre Ayton missed last night's game as well and is questionable to return here. Regardless whether he plays, I believe the Suns will be in tough trying to hold down a Blazers team that will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Damian Lillard returned to the lineup on Sunday but it wasn't enough as Portland fell by five points against Minnesota. Lillard posted a 24/11/6 line in 36 minutes on Sunday so he certainly seemed no worse for wear in his first game back. A lot of bettors got behind the Blazers in that contest and certainly came away discouraged. I believe it's the wrong move jumping ship here, however. Take Portland (10*).

NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday.

While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*).

NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.

Tough spot for the Nuggets here after they rallied for an overtime win in New Orleans last night. Note that Denver hasn't posted consecutive wins since posting five straight victories back in early November. The Spurs, meanwhile, saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in Phoenix on Monday before dropping a double-digit decision at home against the Knicks the next night. I look for them to regain their footing here, noting that they've gone 30-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here after they lost by six points in Denver back in October. The Nuggets on the other hand are a woeful 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off a road win. Take San Antonio (10*).

NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mavs enter this game off a third straight relatively low-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 102-99 score at home against Brooklyn. Noting that the 'over' is 74-50 with the Mavs playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest that finds its way 'over' the total on Wednesday in Memphis. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games. With that being said, two of their own four highest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last five contests. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Grizzlies in a home favorite role this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.9 points. These two teams just met last week with the Grizzlies winning by a 97-90 score in Dallas. The Grizz didn't have to score a whole lot to secure the win on that night as Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Both returned to the lineup last night. The last time these two teams met in Memphis they combined to score a whopping 237 total points. Take the over (10*).

NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*).

NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*).

NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*).

NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*).

NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*).

NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*).

NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*).

NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*).

NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*).

NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*).

NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*).

NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert.

Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game.

The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5.

While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*).

NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night.

Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out.

Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points.

In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points.

Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday.

There's obviously plenty of 'Suns in four' talk entering Game 3 of this series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. I'm not convinced it's going to be that straight-forward for Phoenix, however.

Note that the Bucks check in 8-1 straight-up when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game in that situation. They're also 11-3 SU when revenging a double-digit road loss over the last two seasons and an impressive 27-7 SU when playing at home after an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.2 points in that spot.

Phoenix has gotten incredible offensive production from all over the court in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they do score and allow 1.5 points per game less and more, respectively, than their season average on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks have barely managed to play above .500 basketball on the road this season but check in 22 games over .500 here at home, where they allow nearly two points per game less than their season average.

Despite how the first two games in this series have gone, the Bucks are still outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.3 points in these playoffs. They're obviously in desperate need of a victory to give themselves any sort of chance in this series and I look for them to come up with just that on Sunday night. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday.

We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2.

Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here.

Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points.

While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener.

Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season.

The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night.

The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss.

Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation.

After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*).

NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993.

Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips.

Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average.

Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game).

The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April.

Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss.

Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot.

The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation.

Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*).

NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home.

Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career.

For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday.

Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind.

While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*).

NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

Thanks to Game 1 finishing north of 230 points we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the series-opener, a move that I'm not convinced is warranted.

The Clippers allowed the Suns to shoot better than 55% from the field in Game 1. Perhaps that wasn't all that surprising considering how little time they had to prepare for the Suns surging offense (which had a different look than they're used to with Chris Paul sidelined). Here, we can bank on the Clippers responding favorably from a defensive standpoint noting that on five previous occasions where they've come off a game where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 55% from the field they've given up just 103.6 points per contest.

Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 the last 50 times the Clippers have played as a road underdog, as is the case here.

The Suns are known for their offense led by Devin Booker (who recorded a triple-double in Game 1) and Chris Paul (who as I mentioned remains sidelined). However, they're actually a quality defensive team, allowing just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season.

There's no question that Kawhi Leonard's absence makes the Clippers a weaker defensive team but it hurts them offensively as well. The Suns didn't do a great job of defending Paul George in Game 1 but just like Los Angeles, Phoenix should make the necessary defensive adjustments here.

Noting that this will now be the fifth meeting between these two teams this season with only Game 1 finding its way 'over' the total we're dealing with for Game 2, familiarity has a tendency to lend itself to tighter, lower-scoring contests. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.

We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process.

The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving.

Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs.

Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season.

We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*).

NBA Second Round Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll back the 76ers on the moneyline in this matchup as while I do expect them to prevail, their poor free throw shooting could leave the backdoor ever so slightly open in the late stages of this contest.

Credit Atlanta for rallying to steal Game 5 in Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers were guilty of taking their foot off the gas and perhaps looking ahead to a potential series clincher here in Atlanta in Game 6. Instead, now it's the 76ers who will be facing elimination on Friday night. I look for them to avoid that fate, however.

Philadelphia is a quality road team by NBA standards, having posted a 22-18 SU record away from home this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.9 points per game on average. Note that the Sixers check in a solid 35-18 SU having outscored opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a long-term loser at 18-39 SU the last 57 times it has played after recording consecutive outright underdog wins.

There's really no intimidation factor at play here. The 76ers know they can beat the Hawks, regardless of the setting, having already posted a 16-point victory here on this floor back in Game 3. Philadelphia hasn't lost three games in a row since a four-game skid from April 19th-24th and it's worth noting that it was the underdog in three of those four contests, unlike this situation where it has been favored in every game in this series. Take Philadelphia moneyline (10*).

NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5.

The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night.

For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home.

Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday.

This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*).

NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.

We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*).

NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here.

The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season.

Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season.

Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1.

Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*).

NBA Playoff Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I like the fact that the Bucks have had two full days to sit around and listen to everyone saying they're a 'regular season team' and that they have no shot at coming back against the Nets in this series. Keep in mind, Milwaukee closed as a favorite in Game 2 of this series in Brooklyn. The oddsmakers were certainly giving them more than just a chance at getting back in this series at that point. Now we're seeing an overreaction following the lopsided nature of Game 2. Consider that the Nets have gone just 2-7 SU after a win by 20 points or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in those nine contests. They're also just 3-7 SU when on the road after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an incredible 15-3 SU when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (yes, they closed as a short favorite in Game 2) over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that Milwaukee checks in 35-9 SU when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*).

NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*).

NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.

Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*).

NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday.

Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*).

NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*).

NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*).

NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday.

This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*).

NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as Utah prevailed by a 141-129 score (we won with the Jazz in that game). Now the scene shifts to Memphis for Game 3, where we've seen a much different style of basketball played this season. Memphis will certainly be looking to exact a little revenge here, and I expect it to do it at the defensive end of the floor. The 'under' has gone 23-14 in Grizzlies home games this season with an average total of 220 points. The Grizzlies actually average 3.6 points per game below their season scoring average here at home. We can expect both teams to play some defense on Saturday - something we just didn't see in Game 2 as both teams shot better than 54% from the field. Note that prior to that game, the Jazz had held six straight and nine of their last 10 opponents to 46.6% or worse shooting. Memphis had held eight of its last nine opponents to 44.7% or worse shooting. It's also easy to forget that Game 1 of this series totaled just 221 points. Yes, the Jazz welcomed back Donovan Mitchell in Game 2 and he contributed 25 points in 25 minutes but I'm not sure that his presence warrants the very large shift in the total from Game 1 (216.5) to Game 3 (224 at the time of writing). Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 19-4 with the Grizzlies coming off a game that totaled 245 points or more over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. The 'under' is also 15-5 with the Grizzlies returning home off a double-digit road loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 209.4 points. Also note that a rested Jazz squad has generally been a good thing for 'under' bettors, with the 'under' going 41-25 the last 66 times Utah has played for just the second time in five days, as is the case here, with those games totaling 215.1 points on average over the last three seasons. Finally, I'll point out that four of the last five meetings between these two teams here in Memphis have gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday.

You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*).

NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*).