Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-30-22 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers are reeling off three straight losses and we've successfully faded them in their last two contests as they blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 loss to the Oilers and a 2-0 first period lead in a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Devils, with both games coming at home. Here, they'll obviously be looking to tighten things up and I do think they benefit from stepping down in class after facing the first-place Devils on Monday to take on the second-last (in the Eastern Conference) Senators on Wednesday. Ottawa does check in off consecutive wins out west but now faces the tough 'first game back off a long road trip' situation, noting that New York has been much tougher defensively on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 with the Rangers coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and better still, the 'under' is 13-2 when that home defeat came by two goals or more, as is the case here. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 4.8 goals. All three of last season's matchups between these two teams totalled six goals or less with the two games played here in Ottawa reaching only five and three total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-22 | Rangers v. Kings UNDER 6 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. While we don't see many totals set at 5.5 these days, if there were a game where it might be warranted, this is it. The Rangers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total. Since exploding for eight goals in a victory in Detroit on November 10th, they've managed to score only nine goals in four games since. Defensively, they yielded 12 goals over a three-game stretch from November 3rd to 8th but have allowed only nine goals in five games since. It's a similar story for the Kings. They scored nine goals in a two-game stretch from November 12th to 14th but have managed to find the back of the net only six times in three games since. They haven't been quite as airtight as the Rangers defensively but have limited the opposition to less than 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season which is an accomplishment by today's NHL standards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-10 with New York playing on the road following a game that totalled four goals or less while the 'under' has gone 31-16 with the Kings playing at home following consecutive losses against division opponents. Take the under (8*). |
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11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. These aren't the same Kings we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Previous Los Angeles' clubs wouldn't have been able to sniff out a comeback in a game like Monday's in Calgary. In that contest, the Kings fell behind 5-2 and 6-3 but ultimately rallied for a narrow 6-5 defeat, coming one near-miss from tying the game in the closing minute. Los Angeles has now scored nine goals over its last two contests and checks in averaging 3.7 goals per game (an average total of 7.8 goals) on the road this season. The Oilers are back home following a three-game road trip that saw them win two games. They're averaging 3.8 goals per game on home ice this season but also allowing an average of 3.8. Noting that the 'over' is 15-5 the last 20 times the Oilers have come off a win by 2+ goals, as is the case here, with that situation averaging a total of 7.4 goals, we'll confidently back the 'over' in Oil Country on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-22 | Sabres v. Senators OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Sabres were involved in another wild, high-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 5-4 score against the Canucks on home ice. Losers of six games in a row, they'll be looking to get untracked in Ottawa on Wednesday and the Senators should prove to be a forgiving foe as they've allowed 4+ goals in seven of their last nine games overall. The Sens scored only two goals in Monday's loss to the Islanders but I'm not overly concerned about their offense and I expect the Sabres will be the cure for what ails them on Wednesday, noting that Buffalo has allowed 5, 5, 4, 7, 3 and 5 goals over its last six contests and gives up 3.5 goals per game on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Sharks gave up five goals for a second straight game in last night's defeat at the hands of the Blues. San Jose has now lost five straight games and desperately needs to button things up defensively as it heads to Dallas on Friday. It should have James Reimer back between the pipes and that's a positive as he's been the superior goaltender over backup Kaapo Kahkonen (who started last night's game) this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 165-113 with the Sharks having allowed five or more goals in their previous game and 19-5 with San Jose's last four games having totalled seven or more goals, which is also the case here. Dallas comes off a 5-1 loss in Winnipeg and that's notable as the 'under' has cashed five of six times it has followed up a loss by four or more goals against a division opponent over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also a long-term 47-29 with the Stars coming off four consecutive 'over' results, which is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are struggling mightily right now with St. Louis' issues coming completely out of left field giving all of the talent on its roster, not to mention the fact that it had gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start this season. Since then, the Blues have suffered eight consecutive losses and it's no secret what the problem has been as they simply can't score with any consistency. St. Louis has mustered two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. While the Sharks have been sieve-like defensively of late, they do come off a bye week of sorts, having not played since Saturday. They should be pleased to be hitting the road, where they've played a much cleaner brand of hockey, allowing only 2.7 goals per game. They don't figure to find much success breaking through offensively, however, as they've averaged just 2.0 goals per game on the road and you have to figure Blues head coach Craig Berube gave his team an earful following Tuesday's dreadful defensive effort in a 5-1 loss in Philadelphia. Note that the 'under' is 13-2 in the Blues last 15 games following eight or more consecutive losses, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have seen the 'under' go 19-4 in their last 23 games after playing four consecutive games in which seven or more total goals were scored, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-22 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. If the Blues are going to finally bust out of their slump, it's not likely to be a low-scoring victory (they've yielded a whopping 23 goals in their last four games and 4+ goals in five of their last six contests). That's because they have what has been one of the worst goaltending tandems in the league so far this season in Jordan Binnington and Thomas Greiss. Regardless who starts in goal on Monday, I'm confident we'll see the Bruins bounce back offensively following a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Note that Boston is still averaging an impressive 4.2 goals per game this season. Meanwhile, the Blues are giving up 3.9 goals per contest. I do think there's reason to believe the Blues can break through offensively here, however, noting that they've averaged 3.2 goals the 40 times they've come off consecutive losses by 3+ goals, as is the case here. Better still, they check in averaging 3.9 goals in their last 37 road games where the total has been set at 6.0 or higher, which is also the situation tonight. Take the over (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Senators v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent game with the Senators notably yielding a whopping 58 shots on goal in a 5-3 loss to the Panthers. They've had a couple of days off to shake off that ugly performance and I fully expect the gritty Sens to rebound with a much sharper performance here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are in a bit of a hangover spot, returning home off a successful three-game road trip to California. The Bolts are unlikely to provide such an onslaught of shots as we saw from the Panthers, noting that they've fired 30 or fewer shots on goal in four consecutive games. Ottawa was on fire offensively for a four-game stretch in mid-October but has now scored just five goals in its last two games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Senators have played on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-22 | Canadiens v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canadiens are coming off a 3-2 win in Buffalo two nights ago as we cashed with the 'under'. We'll go right back to the well with the same play here as they continue their road trip in St. Louis. Despite the victory on Thursday, Montreal has still mustered only four goals in its three road games to date this season. The good news is, the Habs have played stout defense, limiting seven of their eight opponents this season to three goals or less. The Blues started the season on fire, scoring nine goals in posting consecutive wins over the Blue Jackets and Kraken. Since then, St. Louis has been stymied, going 1-3 while scoring a grand total of four goals. Last time out, the Blues were lit up for six goals in a loss in Nashville but they won't have to contend with that same type of firepower here, noting they gave up just four goals in two meetings with the Habs last season. Take the under (8*). |
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10-27-22 | Canadiens v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Last season, we saw three of four meetings between these two teams stay 'under' 6.5 total goals and I expect a similar outcome on Thursday as the Canadiens and Sabres match up for the first time this season. Montreal has struggled to find the back of the net with any consistency this season, scoring 4, 0, 1, 3, 6, 2 and 1 goal through its first seven contests. The good news is, the Habs have held six of their seven opponents to three goals or less. It's been 'feast-or-famine' for the Sabres offensively. They piled up 15 goals in a three-game swing through western Canada last week but outside of that have scored just eight goals in their other three contests. After allowing five goals in a blowout loss in Seattle two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see the Sabres tighten things up here. They've held four of their six opponents to three goals or less and three of those opponents to two goals or fewer. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks shutout victory over the Flyers on Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they return home to host the Golden Knights on Tuesday. Vegas is in a back-to-back spot after defeating the Maple Leafs by a 3-1 score on home ice last night. The Knights are off to a terrific start to the season and it's had a lot to do with their defensive play. The 'under' checks in 3-0-1 in their last four games as they've scored 2, 5, 2 and 3 goals over that stretch. Vegas has allowed only 3, 0, 2, 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal in its first seven contests this season and now draws an offensively-challenged Sharks squad that has yet to top the three-goal mark this season, reaching that number only twice in eight games. The good news for San Jose is that it has tightened things up defensively, yielding just four goals in its last three games combined. Note that 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed 'under' 6.5 total goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NHL board - in fact, it's about as high as an NHL total gets right now. I believe it will prove too high. The Panthers have allowed 1, 3, 5, 3, 3 and 2 goals through six games this season. That's fine. It's been the Florida offense that has struggled to get going or at least match the high expectations set for it entering the campaign, scoring 3, 4, 3, 4, 2 and 3 goals to date. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks have far-exceeded expectations offensively, particularly of late, scoring 14 goals in their last three contests. I don't see that continuing here. As I mentioned, the Panthers have been fairly stingy defensively save for one game in Boston and that was a difficult spot as they were at the tail-end of a three-game in five-night road trip. Take the under (8*). |
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10-24-22 | Stars v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have over-achieved offensively to this point this season but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Monday night in Ottawa. The offensive exploits of the Stars have out-shadowed their terrific defensive play through five games, limiting opponents to 1, 1, 1, 3 and 2 goals. Ottawa checks in having scored 18 goals over its last three contests so you have to figure Dallas will be cautious not to get involved in an ultra high-scoring game here. After allowing 4, 3 and 5 goals in their first three games this season, the Senators have settled down a bit defensively, holding the Capitals and Coyotes to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Note that last year's two matchups between these teams both totalled exactly five goals. Take the under (8*). |
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10-23-22 | Sharks v. Flyers UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. While the NHL as a whole is off to a high-scoring start to the season, these two teams have combined to post a 4-8 o/u record. I expect that trend to continue when they match up in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Sharks have been held to 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 and 1 goal in their seven games this season. Playing the second of back-to-back days and facing a stingy Flyers defense that has allowed two goals or less in four of five contests this season, they're not likely to break out here. Philadelphia skated to a 3-1 win in Nashville last night, continuing its surprisingly hot start to the campaign. Since scoring five goals in their season-opener against the Devils, the Flyers have scored exactly three goals in each of their four games since. The Sharks did limit the Flyers to just two goals in each of last year's two meetings and should bring some confidence that they can contain them again here after holding the Rangers and Devils to two goals apiece over their last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-2 the last 14 times the Sharks have played on the road off four losses in their last five games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. The Flyers have played a long-term 136-98 to the 'under' in home non-conference affairs. Take the under (8*). |
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10-22-22 | Kings v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have seen the 'over' cash in four consecutive games while the Capitals have delivered back-to-back 'over' results. This amounts to 'getaway day' for both teams, however, noting that Los Angeles will fly back home to open a three-game homestand while Washington hops on a plane for a four-game road trip at the end of tonight's proceedings. I'm anticipating more of a 'low-event' affair here on Saturday with the 'under' having gone a perfect 2-0 in this series last season and 9-1 the last 10 times the Kings have played on the road in a 6-in-10 situation, as is the case here. Note that both teams are a little banged-up early in the season with the Kings missing Aaron Iafallo and the Caps recently losing Connor Brown to the I.R. Take the under (8*). |
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10-21-22 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'm not all that high on either side offensively and expect a lower-scoring affair when they match up on Friday night in Chicago. Since opening the season with a 3-0 blanking of Montreal, Detroit has seen its last two contests total seven and nine goals. That's notable as the 'under' has gone 8-1 the last nine times the Red Wings have played on the road following a game that totalled nine goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 4.1 goals. The Blackhawks nearly tripled their offensive output through their first two games with a 5-2 victory in San Jose - that was last Saturday. They've been idle since. They had scored just two goals through their first two contests this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 10-4 the last 14 times Chicago has come off a game in which it scored five or more goals. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-22 | Kings v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kings have already been involved in a couple of wild, high-scoring affairs this season, including last time out as they prevailed by a 7-6 score in Minnesota. Meanwhile, Detroit is fresh off a 5-2 victory in New Jersey - its second straight win to open the campaign. Here, I look for a lower-scoring affair as each team aims to pick up its third victory. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-6 with the Kings coming off a game that totalled eight or more goals over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times Detroit has played at home after scoring 4+ goals in its last game, leading to an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 23-8 with the Wings coming off a victory by 2+ goals over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 5.3 goals scored in that spot. Finally, we'll note that the Wings have played to an average total of only 4.6 goals when coming off a contest in which they scored 5+ goals going back to the start of last season (12-game sample size). Take the under (8*). |
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10-13-22 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blackhawks were involved in a relatively high-scoring game in Colorado last night, dropping a 5-2 decision against the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche. That was a wild contest, with six of the seven goals coming by way of the power play, including four of Colorado's five tallies. At least credit the Blackhawks, who most have pegged as likely bottom-feeders in the Western Conference, for at least holding the Avs to just one even-strength goal. While the 'Hawks did manage to score two goals in that game, it's undoubtedly going to be a slog for them offensively. Note that they actually fired only 17 shots on goal in their season-opener. Now, playing the second of back-to-back nights against a Vegas squad that will be looking to tighten things up after yielding three goals in Los Angeles two nights ago, I look for Chicago to struggle here. We won with the 'over' in the Golden Knights season-opener but were certainly fortunate to cash that ticket as it was a 1-1 game early in the third period before the floodgates opened. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-4 with the Knights playing at home off a road game that saw both teams score 3+ goals, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 5.0 goals. That record goes back to when Vegas joined the league. Take the under (8*). |
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10-12-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Columbus and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: Elvis Merzlikins is a late scratch for the Blue Jackets due to illness. Daniil Tarasov will start in goal in his place. That obviously works in our favor but the total will likely move to 6.5 as a result. I'll stick with the play. I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Blue Jackets head to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes on Wednesday. Columbus made a big splash in the offseason, landing perhaps the biggest free agent prize in Johnny Gaudreau. While there's not a ton of depth up front, I do like the way the Jackets top two lines shape up and feel this is a team that will get involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season given the deficiencies at the back-end. Watch for second-year right-winger Yehor Chinakhov, who had a terrific preseason, scoring six goals in seven games. Columbus' defensive corps ranks among the worst in the league while Elvis Merzlikins has never really lived up to expectations between the pipes. The hope was that Merzlikins would serve as an equalizer of sorts last season but he ended up logging a 3.22 GAA and .907 save percentage in 59 games. The Hurricanes don't necessarily get better defensively by adding Brent Burns, but he does give them a lift offensively. Burns contributed three goals and two assists in two preseason contests. Of course, it's the Hurricanes depth up front that is really the envy of the league. Carolina has three forward lines that can threaten to score on every shift - something that just can't be said for most teams. Goaltender Frederik Andersen is coming off a career year but I question whether he can duplicate that performance this season. Note that he allowed four goals on just 31 shots in two preseason appearances. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Golden Knights v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. Neither of these teams did anything to upgrade their situation between the pipes with the Golden Knights forced to go with the duo of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit with Robin Lehner sidelined for the season due to injury and the Kings sticking with veteran Jonathan Quick and backup Cal Petersen. I do think both sides are fairly set offensively, with the Knights adding Phil Kessel in the offseason and the Kings making a big splash with the addition of Kevin Fiala to provide some much-needed scoring punch. The Knights have built out their forward depth to the point that guys like Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson now reside on the third line. With three capable scoring lines up front, not to mention a fourth line that includes Arthur Kaliyev, who performed exceptionally well during the preseason, the Kings boast a lot more offensive pop than we've seen in recent years. Last season's four matchups between these two teams totalled 8, 9, 7 and 6 goals and five of the last six meetings here in Los Angeles have gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This will be the 10th meeting between the Lightning and Rangers in the last 10+ months after the two teams did battle in the playoffs last June. Of the previous nine meetings over that stretch, seven of those contests stayed 'under' the total. We're likely to see a goaltending matchup of two of the best in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. Vasilevskiy got in limited work in the preseason, allowing just five goals on 70 shots. Shesterkin wasn't quite as sharp, yielding six goals on 55 shots but I'm confident he can 'flip the switch' now that the games count for real. I do feel that the Lightning continue to weaken offensively with each passing year, losing key contributor Ondrej Palat this offseason. Defensively, they're still set with Hedman and Sergachev leading the way. You could make the case that the Bolts third defensive pairing of Haydn Fleury and Phillipe Myers could be the top pairing on several teams. Expect goals to come at a premium on Tuesday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 6 on Sunday. This series has certainly taken a turn since Tampa Bay delivered a 6-2 win in Game 3. Since then, we've seen consecutive 3-2 results. Now with the series shifting back to Tampa, there's little reason to expect anything different as the Lightning once again try to stay alive in this series. Keep in mind, Tampa Bay, while known for its offensive prowess, has been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing only 2.5 goals per game. It gave up just four goals in regulation time against the high-powered Avs offense in Games 3 and 4 here at home. In fact, it has held Colorado to exactly two goals in regulation time in three straight contests. The Avs can play some defense as well. They've allowed less than 3.0 goals per game in the playoffs. On the three previous occasions they've come off a loss in these playoffs, they've given up exactly two goals in their next game each time, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Expect a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the under (8*). |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Colorado at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We finally saw an 'under' result in this series in Game 4 as the Avalanche rallied twice from one-goal deficits to defeat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime, pushing them to the brink of elimination as the series shifts back to Colorado for Game 5 on Friday. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair. Note that low-scoring games tend to come in bunches for the Lightning, with the 'under' going 28-19 with Tampa Bay coming off an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 20-8 the last 28 times the Bolts laced them up for Game 5 of a playoff series, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average. The Avs are of course known for their explosive offense but it's worth noting they've been incredibly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.6 goals per game. Remember, they shut out the Lightning the last time these two met in Denver in Game 2. Tampa Bay has done a much better job of containing the Avs offense over the last two games, allowing only four goals in regulation time. While home ice certainly made a different, here, we'll note that the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons (14-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-22 | Lightning v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. We've been riding the 'under' in this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the scene shifts back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 on Thursday. While I hesitate to say that the Bolts have 'solved' Rangers all-world goaltender Igor Shesterkin, they've certainly put a dent in his armor over the last couple of games, scoring six goals on the Hart Trophy candidate. Note that all six of those goals have come in the last four-and-a-half periods. Shesterkin has looked a little tired, and gets little relief here with just one day between games once again. The Rangers struggled to sustain any sort of offensive attack in the last two games in Tampa but we should see a different story unfold back in New York, noting that the Blueshirts average 3.4 goals per game on home ice and put nine pucks in the back of the net in Games 1 and 2. The Bolts haven't been nearly as stingy on the road as they've been at home this season, allowing 3.1 goals per contest. Note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Lightning playing on the road off five or six wins over their last seven games this season, leading to an average total of 7.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers have posted a 12-4 o/u mark when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.3 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Western Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Monday. Bettors are still waiting for a return to the form that saw Game 1 of this series total a whopping 14 goals. We've cashed with the 'under' in each of the last two games and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 4 on Monday as we haven't seen much of an adjustment to the total at all at most books. Both teams will be missing some offensive firepower in this one with Evander Kane suspended for one game for his hit on Nazem Kadri (who will also be sidelined due to injury). The Oilers have now allowed 4+ goals in four straight games - the first time they've done that since January. On the flip side, the Avs have scored 4+ goals in each of the first three games in this series - the first time they've scored four goals or more in three consecutive games since January as well. While I've been critical of Oilers goaltender Mike Smith at times, he certainly hasn't been the problem in this series. In fact, in Game 3 he kept Edmonton in the game early, making a number of key saves on an Avs two-man advantage. Meanwhile, Pavel Francouz has filled in admirably for an injured Darcy Kuemper for Colorado. With Leon Draisaitl clearly not 100% healthy, the Oilers haven't been quite as much of a handful offensively, Connor McDavid's exploits aside. Here, we'll note that Edmonton has posted a 6-15 o/u record when playing at home off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 10-3 with the Oilers having allowed 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, resulting in an average total of 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3 pm et on Sunday. While the scene will shift to Tampa for Game 3 of this series on Sunday afternoon, I'm not convinced that means the floodgates will suddenly open for the Lightning and we'll see a high-scoring affair. Nothing has come easy for the Bolts through the first two games of this series and noting that Brayden Point remains sidelined, I don't see that changing on Sunday. They're going to need to grind it out and that's just fine as they've actually thrived playing that style at home this season, going 31-15 while allowing just 2.6 goals per game. On the flip side, we'll note that the Rangers average just 2.9 goals per game on the road this season and check in sporting an 11-19 o/u mark when coming off four wins in their last five games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 19-8 with New York playing on the road with the total set at 5.5 this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.2 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Edmonton on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-7 with the Oilers having allowed 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, as is the case here and also 9-3 when coming off back-to-back games giving up 4+ goals - also the situation tonight. In fact, the 'under' is a long-term 134-102 with Edmonton coming off consecutive contests in which it allowed 4+ goals. While the Avalanche have goaltending concerns with Darcy Kuemper potentially sidelined again, they have to feel pretty good about what backup Pavel Francouz gave them in Game 2, posting a shutout after the Oilers scored six times in Game 1. Despite dropping a 4-0 decision, Oilers goaltender Mike Smith held up far better in Game 2 than he did in the series-opener as he was once again peppered with 40 shots. We can anticipate Edmonton throwing everything it has at Colorado defensively in this one. You would have to go back four meetings here in Edmonton to find the last time the Avs scored more than three goals in a game on this ice. Take the under (8*). |
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06-02-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | 0-4 | Win | 129 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. Recency bias certainly plays a major factor when it comes to the playoffs, whether it be the NBA or the NHL. In this case, we just saw a wild, high-scoring affair that featured a whopping 14 goals in Game 1 and not only that, but the Avs lost starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper to an injury. We were unfortunately on the 'under' in that contest - not a wise call by any means - but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here with 7's offering a plus-money return and even some 7.5's popping up at some books. Note that the 'under' is 17-10 with the Oilers playing on the road following a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 6.4 goals. The 'under' is also 21-12 with Edmonton coming off consecutive games in which it allowed 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 6.2 goals. Take the under (9*). |
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06-01-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Rangers stunning 6-2 win over the Hurricanes in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Monday. I won't hesitate to go the other way with the 'under' in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday night. The Lightning saw all four of their games against the in-state rival Panthers stay 'under' the total - a much different outcome than most were expecting. Likewise, the Rangers saw the first five games of their series against Carolina stay 'under' before things opened up in Games 6 and 7. While there will be plenty of offensive firepower on display in this series, I'm not sure we'll see it right out of the gate on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Lightning playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after the Rangers took the final two regular season meetings between these two teams, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 29-15 with the Blueshirts playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here. New York allows just 2.3 goals per game at Madison Square Garden this season and it has a red hot, world-class goaltender in Igor Shesterkin. The Lightning have their own elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy and he posted a ridiculous .981 save percentage in Tampa Bay's four-game sweep of Florida. Expect goals to be tough to come by in the series-opener. Take the under (8*). |
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05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -129 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Colorado at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a total of 7 at plenty of books leading up to Game 1 of the Western Conference Final between the Oilers and Avalanche. The 'over' cashed in four of the Oilers five games against the Flames last round. Credit the Oilers for taking it to their in-province rivals and ultimately prevailing in fewer games than most would have imagined. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, however. Colorado had to break a sweat but ultimately got past the Blues in six games last round. While the Avalanche boast a potent offense, it's important to note that their defensive play has been terrific as well. Note that the Avs have given up three goals or less in eight of 10 playoff games. They held the Oilers to two goals or less in consecutive meetings earlier this season before dropping a 6-3 decision in Edmonton very late in the regular season when they were already looking ahead to the playoffs, mired in a 1-6 slide to end the campaign. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Oilers playing on the road after winning four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 5.0 goals. This season, the 'under' is 9-3 with the Oilers playing on the road after consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 6.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-3 clip when playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 36 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday. We've been riding the 'under' throughout this series, with considerable success. Now that the genie is finally out of the bottle, so to speak, following the Rangers high-scoring 5-2 victory on Saturday night, I look for another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 7 on Monday night. The Canes fired a whopping 39 shots on goal in Saturday's loss but didn't really generate enough dangerous scoring chances to keep pace with the Blueshirts. That should change back at home. New York seemed to finally solve Canes goaltender Antti Raanta on Saturday, finding the back of the net three times on just 13 shots before he was replaced. Raanta has played as well as he has at any point of his career in these playoffs but you have to wonder if the clock could be striking midnight. The Rangers certainly boast plenty of firepower and have now scored 13 goals in taking three of the last four games in this series. The Canes are at home for Game 7, however, and I'm confident they can bounce back from their poor showing on Saturday, noting that they have scored 21 goals in their last five home contests following a loss, good for an average of over 4.0 goals per game. Take the over (10*). |
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05-24-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been incredibly low-scoring - precisely what we expected after both teams got involved in far higher-scoring series' than anticipated in the opening round of the playoffs. I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday as we watch a pivotal Game 4 unfold. Note that the 'under' is 17-6 with the Canes coming off a loss by 2+ goals against a divisional opponent over the last three seasons and 22-11 when playing on the road off a loss of any margin against a divisional foe over the last two campaigns. Both situations are in play here after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Game 3 (we won with the Rangers in that contest). The Rangers, meanwhile, have been a streaky 'under' team all season, with the 'under' going 31-18 when coming off an 'under' result, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 when the Blueshirts play at home off a home victory, resulting in just 4.9 total goals on average in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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05-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold as the series shifts to Edmonton for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Flames coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season. Likewise, the 'under' is 20-11 with the Oilers following the same scenario. The 'under' is also 18-9 with the Oilers playing at home off a road victory by 2+ goals over the last two seasons. The 'under' is actually a long-term 42-25 in the last 67 instalments of the 'Battle of Alberta' here in Edmonton. Take the under (7*). |
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05-20-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday. Not surprisingly, things have tightened up considerably following a high-scoring opening round. This series is no exception as Game 1 produced just two goals in regulation time two nights ago. I expect more of the same on Friday. Carolina is as stingy as it gets at home, allowing just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' going 26-18-2 in Raleigh this season. While the Rangers weren't able to grab a win in Game 1, it had to be encouraging to hold the Hurricanes to just a single goal in regulation time after struggling mightily to keep the puck out of their own net against Pittsburgh last round. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 40-23 with the Rangers playing on the road off a road loss against a division opponent, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 17-7 with the Rangers on the road with the total set at 5.5 goals this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.3 goals. Carolina has seen the 'under' go 29-16 at home in division games over the same stretch, with that situation producing an average total of 5.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect this series to play out anything like these two teams' high-scoring opening round series'. We inexplicably saw 7+ goals in all seven games between the Rangers and Penguins while the Canes saw six of their seven games against the Bruins total at least six goals. I expect the scoring to settle down considerably in the round two opener between these two squads on Wednesday, noting that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off an overtime win this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is 28-16 with the Canes playing at home against division opponents over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. The last time these two teams faced each other here in Raleigh, the Rangers skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory back on March 30th. The 'under' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-22 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
First Round Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We've already seen the three games played in Calgary in this series total just 3, 1 and 4 goals and I anticipate more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday. Nothing has come all that easy for the Flames in this series, despite the fact that they've outplayed the Stars most of the way. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has stood on his head at times and as a result Calgary has managed to find the back of the net just 12 times through six games. The good news is, the Flames have been ultra-stingy defensively here at home all season, giving up only 2.3 goals per contest. Scoring has been an issue for the Stars on the road all season, averaging just 2.5 goals per game. When playing on the road following a home game over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), they've averaged just 2.2 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Game 5 often serves as the pivotal game in a series. In this particular case, it could bring an end to the series as the Penguins look to eliminate the Rangers in unceremonious fashion at Madison Square Garden. This series hasn't gone the way most expected. The four regular season matchups between these two teams produced just 1, 6, 5 and 3 goals. We've yet to see a game in this playoff series stay 'under' seven goals. I expect that to change with the Rangers facing elimination on Wednesday, however. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-8 with the Penguins playing on the road after consecutive wins by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 28-15 with the Rangers seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 26-11 when those two losses saw the opponent score 3+ goals, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of only 5.8 goals in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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05-10-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Bruins exploded for nine goals in Games 3 and 4 of this series, evening up proceedings at two games apiece. That was at home though. Now they go back on the road, where they average less than 3.0 goals per game this season and scored just three goals in Games 1 and 2 combined. The Hurricanes have been incredibly stingy at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game in Raleigh. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 24-18-1 here in Carolina. With all of that being said, we're still working with a '6' here as all four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. I expect that to change on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Bruins having scored 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 16-6 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. While this playoff series has been high-scoring, it's worth noting that the previous three meetings between these two teams in Carolina all totalled four goals or less, including a 3-0 Canes victory earlier this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 2-7 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. This series has been much higher-scoring than expected with the first three games totalling 7, 7 and 11 goals. Saturday's Game 3 here in Pittsburgh broke wide open early with the Penguins scoring four times in the first period alone (they led 4-1 entering the second period). I'm certain that neither team has been pleased with the way they've played defensively in this series. Keep in mind, the Rangers give up just 2.6 goals per game on the season while the Pens check in yielding an average of 2.8 goals per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Rangers playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of only 4.9 goals. Meanwhile, the Penguins have seen the 'under' go 15-5 when playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 4.8 goals in that spot. Interestingly, the regular season saw three of four meetings between these two teams total five goals or less, including a 1-0 result in favor of the Penguins here in Pittsburgh. Remember, we saw a stretch of 3+ periods without a goal back in the series-opener last week before the Pens prevailed in triple-overtime. Take the under (8*). |
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05-08-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Boston at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. This is obviously the pivotal game in this series so far and while it's been a relatively high-scoring matchup to this point with all three games finding their way 'over' 5.5 goals, I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Bruins coming off three losses in their last four games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. The 'over' has now cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams - the longest such streak in the series since 2013-2014. Take the under (6*). |
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05-05-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel we're seeing an overreaction to a couple of things from Game 1 of this series, leading to plenty of '6's' on the board for Game 2. First of all, the series-opener was a high-scoring one, with seven goals scored, albeit in more than five periods of hockey. We certainly saw how things can tighten up, however, noting that there was just one goal scored in the first period and none in the third (or in the first or second overtime periods of course). Second, the Penguins were already down a goalie with Tristan Jarry on the shelf but Casey DeSmith was forced to leave Game 1 due to injury as well and his status is still up in the air for Game 2. Keep in mind, Louis Domingue stepped in and performed admirably, just as he has whenever he's been called upon this season, posting a .960 save percentage in three games, with the 'under' cashing in both of his previous starts. Rangers goaltender and likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin did not have a good Game 1. I expect him to bounce back here, however. He owns a .941 save percentage at home this season with the 'under' cashing in 19 of his 30 starts at Madison Square Garden. The 'under' checks in 12-4 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. The Penguins average an impressive 3.3 goals per game this season but that scoring average drops to 2.7 goals per contest over the last three seasons when they play on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Capitals v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Florida at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. You would have to go back nine meetings in this series to find the last time a game finished with fewer than seven total goals. I don't expect that to change in the opener of this first round series on Tuesday. The Capitals struggled offensively down the stretch but they were also without Alex Ovechkin for their last three contests. He is expected back in the lineup for Tuesday's contest. A bigger concern than the Caps recent offensive woes is their situation defensively and in goal. They allowed at least four goals in six of their last nine games down the stretch. Both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek struggled between the pipes. Now they have to face a Panthers squad that averaged 4.7 goals per game on home ice during the regular season. Florida will give its share of goals up as well though. The Panthers have allowed 2.9 goals per game at home this season and will have to contend with a Caps offense that averages an impressive 3.5 goals per contest on the road. The most recent meeting between these two teams went Florida's way by a 5-4 score. That's notable as the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Capitals seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 5+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Now that we've got the starting goaltender matchup we wanted, we'll step in with a play on the 'under' in Tampa on Tuesday. The Lightning are coming off six straight 'over' results. They've scored a whopping 22 goals over their last three games alone - their highest such scoring run of the season. I expect them to 'manage' this game, however, noting that they recently suffered a couple of late season injury scares with Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev (Cirelli is expected back in the lineup on Tuesday while Sergachev remains questionable) and will close out the season with games on consecutive nights beginning on Thursday in Columbus. I mentioned the goaltending matchup in this one - it's certainly notable when you consider how well Elvis Merzlikins has been playing for the Blue Jackets. He has posted a .937 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'under' cashing in three of those four games. Also note that the 'under' is 4-1 in his five career starts against the Lightning. Columbus scored five goals in its most recent game - a 5-2 victory over Edmonton on Friday. Prior to that the Jackets had scored just eight goals over their last four games combined. The 'under' checks in 10-2 with the Jackets playing on the road off a win by 3+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.5 goals. While the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled nine goals, that came in Columbus. The two teams have met four times in Tampa going back to the start of last season with those contests reaching just 4, 5, 4 and 7 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Wild v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Minnesota rolled to a 6-3 win over the expansion Kraken on Friday night. Seattle seemingly woke a sleeping giant in that contest, jumping out to an early 2-0 lead before the Wild exploded for six goals. That was Minnesota's second straight game scoring six goals. Note, however, that both of those contests came at home. The Wild have scored three goals or less in four of their last five road games. They've yet to score more than two goals in a game against the Predators this season, losing all three previous matchups. Minnesota is currently missing a number of key contributors due to injury, including Matt Dumba, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway. The Preds will be looking to bounce back from a 6-2 drubbing in Tampa last night. The good news is, Nashville has been much better defensively here at home, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season. Note that the Wild average just 2.8 goals per game with an average total of 5.0 goals when playing on the road after scoring 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-3 clip in that situation. Similarly, the 'under' is 17-7 with the Wild playing on the road after consecutive games totalling 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' has cashed in 21 of the last 35 meetings here in Music City, with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Capitals v. Coyotes UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Arizona at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Coyotes have now seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Friday, however. For the Capitals, this is a game they might just look to 'manage' as they have a difficult stretch coming up to end the season, beginning a stretch of four games in six nights on Sunday at home against Toronto. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive games in which both teams scored 3+ goals, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 9-2 with Arizona coming off consecutive games in which it scored 3+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 4.8 goals. While the Coyotes are by no means a stout defensive team, they have given up just 2.1 goals per game with an average total of only 4.7 goals when coming off a home loss against a division opponent this season (seven-game sample size), which is the situation here. Note that these two teams have met once previously this season, with the Capitals skating to a 2-0 home victory back in October. Take the under (9*). |
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04-22-22 | Senators v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met in March and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. You would have to go back four games to find the last time the Senators posted an 'under' result. I expect that to change here. Note that Ottawa is averaging a woeful 1.3 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals when coming off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals this season, as is the case following Tuesday's 4-3 win in Vancouver. The 'under' is 20-7 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have posted a 3-11 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 4.4 goals in that spot. We're likely to see a matchup between Anton Forsberg and Elvis Merzlikins in goal in this one and both have been playing well with Forsberg posting a .919 save percentage over his last four games and Merzlikins having recorded a .920 save percentage over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-22 | Senators v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've gone to the well a number of times when it comes to Senators 'unders' this season and we'll do so again here. Both teams played last night. The Senators dropped a 4-2 decision in Seattle while the Canucks rolled to a 6-2 victory over Dallas to keep their playoff hopes alive. This is a game I look for Vancouver to 'manage' in a sense. Keep in mind, the Canucks will begin a stretch of five games in nine nights (in four different cities) to close out the regular season on Thursday night in Minnesota. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-10 with the Sens coming off a game in which they allowed 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.7 goals. The 'under' is also 13-5 with Ottawa playing on the road off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals. While the Canucks come in off five consecutive 'over' results, their home games are still averaging just 5.8 total goals this season. You would have to go back five meetings between these two teams here in Vancouver to find the last time a game totalled more than six goals. Take the under (7*). |
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04-18-22 | Hurricanes v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'm not sure whether the Coyotes are actually 'tanking' or if the talent level simply isn't there to compete on a nightly basis (especially given their injury situation). Regardless, opponents are scoring against them at will and they're likely going to be in tough again on Monday as they host a Hurricanes squad looking to bounce back from consecutive losses. Note that Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than their home games this season, averaging 6.3 total goals per contest with the 'over' cashing at a 20-14-3 clip. In Canes road games with the total set at 6.0 or higher, we've seen an average total of 6.9 goals scored. Also note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Coyotes playing at home after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals scored. Both teams are in tough between the pipes right now. Frederik Andersen had to leave the Canes last game due to a lower body injury. Antti Raanta has performed well at times this season but has seemingly hit the wall lately, posting an .873 save percentage over his last four games. Meanwhile, Coyotes goaltender Karel Vejmelka has had to shoulder far too much of the load in his rookie season, making 44 starts. Over his last four games he has recorded a dismal .817 save percentage with the 'over' cashing at a 3-0-1 clip. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Wild v. Blues UNDER 6.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and St. Louis at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen three straight meetings between these two teams go 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 with St. Louis playing at home off a win by 4+ goals this season with those contests totalling an average of just 4.2 goals. The Blues check in playing solid defensive hockey, having allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games. The Wild have given up three goals or less in five of their last seven contests and come in off back-to-back 'under' results. While they have scored a whopping 14 goals over their last three games, they'll be up against a Blues squad that allows only 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. Take the under (6*). |
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04-14-22 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Wings aren't scoring with any consistency right now, having found the back of the net 2, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4 and 1 goal over their last 10 games. In a game the Hurricanes will be looking to 'manage' before heading out on the road for two games in three nights beginning Saturday in Colorado, I look for goals to come at a premium. The Canes have actually seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games after the 'under' had gone 3-1-1 over their previous five contests. They've been incredibly stingy here at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game. Better still, they've given up just 1.4 goals per contest with an average total of only 4.9 goals when playing at home off two or more consecutive wins this season (14-game sample size), as is the case here. Detroit averages just 2.4 goals per game away from home this season with that number dropping to 2.1 when coming off a loss, which is the situation here. Additionally, the 'under' is 20-11 with Carolina playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 5.3 goals. We're able to play this one at 6.5 thanks to the previous two meetings between these two teams this season reaching 8 and 7 goals. The 'under' has still cashed in 15 of the last 25 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-22 | Sabres v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Tampa Bay at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting the Lightning to go off offensively in this game as they look to snap their four-game losing streak against the lowly Sabres. There's no guarantee that will happen though as the Bolts have scored just six goals over their last three games combined and fewer than four goals in 10 of their last 15 contests. The Sabres have quietly been playing competitive hockey for weeks now. Their last loss by more than two goals came back on March 17th against Edmonton. We will note that this isn't a favorable spot for Buffalo, however, noting that it has averaged just 2.2 goals per game when seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 5.8 goals (44-game sample size). Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when coming off a game in which they scored one goal or less, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.7 goals (35-game sample size). Take the under (8*). |
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04-09-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 104 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. While the Avalanche are known for their explosive offense and coming off consecutive 'over' results to open this road trip, scoring 11 goals in the process, it may surprise you to know that they haven't posted three consecutive 'over' results since March 5th to 8th. Prior to that you would have to go back to the first half of January to find the last time they reeled off three or more consecutive 'overs'. The Oilers have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total, allowing a grand total of just three goals in those two games. I don't think we'll see either team give an inch here as they try to keep their winning streaks intact (the Avs have won five straight and the Oilers have won six in a row). Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams totalled just five goals with Colorado skating to a 3-2 win on home ice last month. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-18 with the Avs coming off a one-goal victory over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals while the Oilers have posted a long-term 12-24 o/u mark when coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (6*). |
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04-07-22 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Tuesday's 4-2 win in Philadelphia ended a stretch of seven straight games in which Columbus was held to three goals or less. Noting that the Flyers have been equally bad defensively on the road (allowing 3.6 goals per game this season) there's reason to believe the Blue Jackets can follow that performance up with another relatively high-scoring effort here. The Flyers have little reason to get up for most games as they're simply playing out the string at this point, but perhaps a quick revenge spot against the Blue Jackets gets their juices flowing here. Note that Philadelphia has actually shown some life on the road recently, scoring five goals in St. Louis, four in Nashville and four in New York (against the Rangers) in the last three weeks alone. Philadelphia checks in averaging 3.2 goals per game after losing four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, have allowed a whopping 4.4 goals per contest when playing at home off a win over a division opponent over the same time frame, which is also the situation here. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 with Columbus coming off a division win this season, with that spot producing an average total of 7.7 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 15-6 with the Jackets following an 'under' result this season, leading to an average total of 7.0 goals in that spot. Here, Columbus actually checks in off consecutive 'under' results. Note that it hasn't posted three straight 'unders' since October 16th-21st - the first week of the season. Philadelphia hasn't seen the 'under' cash in consecutive games since March 18th and 20th. Take the over (8*). |
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04-06-22 | Lightning v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this game off consecutive losses with each team allowing a whopping 11 goals over those two contests. Needless to say, both sides will be looking to tighten things up on Wednesday night. It's not as if this has been a high-scoring series this season. The two previous meetings have produced a grand total of just eight goals including a 2-1 result in favor of the Lightning in the lone previous matchup here in Washington. While the Caps average 3.1 goals per game here on home ice this season, that average drops to 2.6 when coming off consecutive 'over' results (13-game sample size), as is the case here. As for the Lightning, they've averaged just 2.1 goals per game when coming off four or more consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons (10-game sample size), which is also the situation they're in here. Additionally, the 'under' checks in 19-7 with the Bolts playing on the road after losing two of their last three contests, with an average total of just 5.0 goals in that spot. The Caps on the other hand have posted a long-term 35-58 o/u mark when coming off a loss by 4+ goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-05-22 | Islanders v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Islanders and Stars have been two of my most preferred 'under' teams in the NHL in recent seasons. While I haven't gone to that well too many times this season, I do see fit to do so as the two teams match up in Dallas on Tuesday night. The Isles have scored 16 goals over their last four games, finding the back of the net 3+ times in all four contests. Note, however, that the 'under' is 14-5 with New York playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. In 40 road games when following up a division game over the last two seasons, as is the case here off Sunday's 4-3 win over the Devils, the Isles have averaged just 2.2 goals per game with the 'under' going 27-13 along the way. The Stars average 3.0 goals per game overall this season but that average drops to 2.5 with the 'under' cashing in 20 of 31 games when coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Here, Dallas will be going up against a red hot Isles goaltending tandem with Ilya Sorokin having posted a .944 save percentage over his last four starts (note that he remains questionable after missing the Isles last four games) and Semyon Varlamov recording a terrific .941 save percentage over his last four starts. Take the under (7*). |
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04-05-22 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been a high-scoring one in recent years with 11 of the last 15 meetings going 'over' the total. With the Devils having seen eight of their last 10 contests sail 'over' the total and the Rangers struggling to keep the puck out of their own net lately, I believe we're in for another relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Newark. Of course, the Rangers will not only be looking to snap a two-game losing streak on Tuesday but they'll also be out for revenge after dropping a 7-4 decision here (in a game they led 2-0) back on March 22nd. Note that while the Rangers average 3.1 goals per game this season, that scoring average jumps to 3.9 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite (nine-game sample size). The Devils should afford the Blueshirts plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that New Jersey has allowed 6, 6, 6, 4, 3, 4, 2, 8, 7 and 4 goals over its last 10 games. Without question we've seen the Devils sacrifice defense for offense down the stretch, scoring three goals or more in eight of their last 10 contests and six or more twice over their last seven games. Going all the way back to February 28th, the Devils have fired 30+ shots on goal in nine straight games here at home. The Rangers have been a solid defensive team this season but that hasn't been the case lately. They check in having given up 25 goals over their last seven contests. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has posted a disappointing .899 save percentage over his last four starts and has allowed 17 goals over his last five games between the pipes. Backup Alex Georgiev has of course struggled for much of the season, particularly on the road where he owns a .887 save percentage. Devils games have seen an average total of 6.8 goals this season but that average jumps to 7.4 when they come off eight or more losses in their last 10 games, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at an 11-4 clip in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Lightning are coming off a rare home loss on Saturday night, falling by a 5-4 score in a shootout against Montreal. Tampa Bay has now seen the 'over' cash in three straight games and has scored 4+ goals in four consecutive games - its longest such streak of the season. Contrary to popular belief, that's not really the style the Lightning like to employ. While they can score with the best of them, they prefer to play a 'crash and bang' style of hockey to wear down the opposition. It's worth noting that they gave regular starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy the night off on Saturday. He's been rounding back into form lately, with the Bolts allowing just 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3 and 2 goals in his last eight starts (the 'under' went 6-2 in those eight contests). Here, we'll note that Tampa has seen the 'under' cash at a 7-1 clip when coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. The Leafs are red hot offensively right now, scoring 5+ goals in each of their last four contests. They average an impressive 3.9 goals per game on the road this season but that number drops to 2.7 when coming off four consecutive games in which they scored 4+ goals. On the flip side, Tampa has allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). The Bolts took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 5-3 score in Toronto and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 17-8 with the Leafs on the road seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of only 5.5 goals. Toronto welcomed back goaltender Jack Campbell on Saturday in Philadelphia and after a shaky first period in which he allowed two goals on 11 shots, he stopped 20 of 21 shots on goal the rest of the way in a 6-3 Leafs victory. While the last meeting between these two teams was high-scoring as I mentioned, the 'under' has actually cashed in 24 of the last 38 matchups in the series. Interestingly, the two previous matchups this season saw closing totals of just 5.5 so we're dealing with a considerably higher total here. With the Leafs and Bolts currently tied for second place in the Atlantic Division, this game takes on added importance and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-22 | Canadiens v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 0-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canadiens allowed seven goals in Tuesday's loss in Florida but those type of defensive lapses haven't been nearly as commonplace since Martin St. Louis took over behind the bench. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Habs continue their southeastern road swing in Carolina. The Canes have seen the 'over' cash in four straight games and are coming off a 4-3 overtime loss in Tampa two nights ago. Note that the two previous meetings in this series this season totalled just five and four goals. The Canadiens check in sporting a 3-9 o/u record when on the road seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent this season, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Canes have seen the 'under' cash in all five games when playing their third game in four nights at home this season, with an average total of just 3.6 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also 11-3 with the Canes playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, which is the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-22 | Senators v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. The Senators have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two contests while Nashville enters Tuesday's game riding a six-game 'over' streak. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however, as Ottawa travels to Nashville. Note that the Sens average only 2.7 goals per game on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11-2 clip. The 'under' is an incredible 17-5 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-15 with the Predators playing at home off an 'over' result over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game this season, resulting in an average total of only 3.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Canucks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Canucks check into Saturday's game in Dallas off three straight 'under' results. They're certainly capable of bouncing back offensively, noting that they average just shy of 3.0 goals per game on the road this season with the 'over' cashing at a 19-14-1 clip. They'll likely face Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger on Saturday. He's had a fine season but has actually struggled lately, posting a .907 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'over' cashing in three of those four contests. Of course, Dallas is rolling right now, having won three games in a row, scoring 12 goals along the way. The Stars have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games and they've proven to be a streaky team in that regard this season, noting that the 'over' is 19-9 with Dallas coming off an 'over' result this season, resulting in an average total of 6.8 goals. I mentioned that the Canucks average just under 3.0 goals per game on the road this season. That average bumps up to 3.7 goals per contest when Vancouver plays on the road off an overtime loss this season (six-game sample size). That situation has produced an average total of 6.4 goals. Take the over (8*). |
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03-25-22 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. NOTE: Both teams threw us a bit of a curveball, announcing Ilya Samsonov (Capitals) and Dustin Tokarski (Sabres) as the starting goaltenders tonight. A matchup between the two backup goaltenders obviously isn't the worst thing for us with an 'over' ticket, even though I did like the way we were set up with Vanecek vs. Anderson as noted below. The Capitals have gone from being red hot to losing consecutive games, scoring exactly two goals in each of those losses. This is an ideal bounce-back spot on the road against Buffalo, however, noting that Washington has scored 30 goals in its last eight meetings in this series and averages 3.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. There's a good chance we'll see Vitek Vanecek in goal for the Caps here and that's notable as he has struggled lately, allowing 19 goals in his last six games. Of course Buffalo has been a mess between the pipes for most of the season. Craig Anderson likely gets the nod in goal on Friday. The veteran has allowed 11 goals over his last three games. Interestingly, the Sabres have averaged 3.6 goals per game when coming off an overtime win over the last three seasons (10-game sample size), as is the case here. Buffalo has quietly improved its scoring average to 2.9 goals per game here on home ice this season after finding the back of the net 12 times over its last three home contests. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just five goals back in December. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series total fewer than six goals since 2017-18. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-22 | Predators v. Ducks UNDER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Predators check in off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Anaheim to face the Ducks on Monday. While Nashville averages 3.3 goals per game on the season, that number drops to 2.6 goals per game when it comes off a game in which it scored 5+ goals, as is the case here. The 'under' has gone 9-1 in that situation this season with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 when the Preds play on the road after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. We cashed with the 'under' in a similar situation last week as they followed up a 6-2 win in Minnesota with a 4-1 victory over Pittsburgh. As for Anaheim, it has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games, losing each of its last six contests. That's notable as the Ducks have seen the 'under' go 43-21 the last 64 times they've come off 5+ consecutive losses, with an average total of just 5.2 goals in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-22 | Blackhawks v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blackhawks are coming off a low-scoring game against the Bruins last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they head to Minnesota to face the division-rival Wild on Saturday afternoon. Note that the Wild took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 5-0 score in Chicago back on February 2nd. That's notable as the Blackhawks have averaged 3.4 goals per game when playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. Better still, they average 3.5 goals per game when playing on the road seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Also of note, the 'over' is 26-14 with Chicago coming off a game in which four or fewer total goals were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. The Wild have seen the 'over' go 15-2 when coming off a home win this season, producing an average total of 7.8 goals in that situation. Both teams have had issues between the pipes lately. Blackhawks regular starter Marc-Andre Fleury has posted an .896 save percentage over his last four starts while the Wild haven't gotten much from Cam Talbot or Kaapo Kahkonen, with that duo posting .887 and .908 save percentages respectively over their last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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03-17-22 | Islanders v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between the Islanders and Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Given the fact that these two teams have only met once previously this season it's easy to forget that this has been a low-scoring series recently with eight of the last nine meetings totalling five goals or less. I expect a similar story to unfold on Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Islanders last three games - matching their longest such streak of the season. On both previous occasions, their next contest stayed 'under' the total, reaching just three and four goals (both games involved a shutout result oddly enough). Note that the 'under' is 19-8 with the Isles coming off consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 4.6 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also 23-12 with the Isles playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 4.8 goals in that spot. The Rangers have scored 11 goals over their last two games - their highest scoring output over a two-game stretch this season. The 'under' is 20-11 with the Rangers coming off four or five wins over their last six games, leading to an average total of 5.4 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Rangers coming off a home win in which they scored 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 4.7 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Blue Jackets v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Ottawa at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Senators on Monday night. In retrospect, the 'over' probably should have been an auto-play with Gustavsson starting in goal for Ottawa. Nevertheless, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens stay at home to host the Blue Jackets on Wednesday. Columbus is coming off a six-goal outburst against Vegas two nights ago but zooming out a little, it's clear that the Jackets have cooled off offensively following a terrific stretch in February. Over its last nine games, Columbus has averaged 2.9 goals per contest. Still, the 'over' has gone 5-1-1 in the Jackets last seven contests, which affords us a very generous total to work with on Wednesday. Speaking of 'over' results, the Sens have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled seven goals or more this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.9 goals in that situation. The 'under' is a long-term 28-15 with the Sens playing at home with a total of 6.0 or higher over the last two seasons with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored in that spot. The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-5 clip when playing on the road off consecutive wins over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals. We'll likely see Anton Forsberg back between the pipes for the Senators on Wednesday. The opposition has scored three goals or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts with the 'under' cashing in six of those games. Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Penguins v. Predators UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Pittsburgh enters this game having seen the 'over' go 2-0-1 over its last three games while Nashville is fresh off consecutive high-scoring affairs over the weekend that totalled 11 and eight goals. Keep in mind, each of the Penguins last three games were played at home. Here on the road, they've posted a 13-15-1 o/u record this season with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored. Meanwhile, the Preds have seen the 'under' go a perfect 8-0 when playing at home after scoring six or more goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.5 goals. When playing at home following a win this season, the Preds have posted a 4-11 o/u mark with an average total of only 5.3 goals scored. Take the under (6*). |
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03-11-22 | Capitals v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Canucks have now seen the 'over' cash in nine straight games entering Friday's matchup with the Capitals. We're always looking for a 'catalyst for change' when we're looking to go against a streak like that and I believe we have it here with Vancouver enjoying its first three-day break between games since the streak began on February 17th. Washington has seen its last three games go 'over' the total although Wednesday's contest in Edmonton just as easily could have stayed 'under' were it not for a game-tying goal from T.J. Oshie in the closing seconds of the third period. The Caps have allowed eight goals in their first two games on this trip but still give up just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Despite a string of high-scoring games, Canucks home games are still averaging only 5.5 total goals this season. They allow just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season and better still, that average drops to 2.3 when playing consecutive home games, as is the case here. The 'under' is 15-5 with Vancouver playing at home off a home win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.3 goals. Finally, I'll note that this game features two of the league's more underrated starting goaltenders in Vitek Vanecek and Thatcher Demko. Vanecek owns a .941 save percentage over his last four starts (he didn't start Wednesday's 4-3 loss in Edmonton). Demko hasn't exactly been at his best lately but like the rest of the team, will be making his first start on three or more days' rest since February 12th-17th. The Canucks netminder has posted a terrific .930 save percentage in 19 home starts this season with the 'under' going 11-7-1. Take the under (6*). |
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03-10-22 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring game in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Sharks have been held to a grand total of three goals over their last three games. That's notable as that has happened three times previous this season and on those three occasions, in their next game they've scored 5, 6 and 4 goals with those three contests totalling 8, 9 and 9 goals. Here, San Jose catches Los Angeles back home after an eastern road swing. Note that the Kings have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.0 goals per game here in Los Angeles. There's a good chance we'll see Jonathan Quick in goal for the Kings after Cal Petersen started the last two games. Quick has been awful lately, posting a .876 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'over' cashing at a 3-1 clip along the way. Meanwhile, Petersen owns a less than impressive .902 save percentage in 11 home starts with the 'over' cashing at a 7-4 clip. The Sharks have already announced they'll give Zach Sawchenko his second straight start. He held up alright against the Ducks last time out but is likely to get peppered here, noting that the Kings average just shy of 37 shots per game on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that San Jose has allowed a ridiculous 5.4 goals per game with an average total of 8.3 goals when coming off a loss against a division opponent this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has cashed seven of eight times that situation has come up. The 'over' is also 9-2 with San Jose coming off three straight games in which it scored two goals or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 104 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. In the case of the Stars they're coming off four consecutive 'over' results. As for Nashville, it exploded for eight goals in a shutout win in San Jose on Saturday - its second straight 'over' result. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Note that the Stars check in averaging a miserable 1.4 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals (five-game sample size). The 'under' is 7-1 with the Stars having scored 3+ goals in four consecutive games this season, leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 46-29 with the Stars coming off four or more consecutive 'over' results in the long-term picture. The Preds, meanwhile, average just 1.4 goals per game when playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going a perfect 7-0 along the way with an average total of only 3.5 goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Nashville playing at home after scoring 4+ goals in a road victory over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Senators v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Senators most recent game - a 2-1 loss in Las Vegas on Sunday. We also cashed with the 'under' in the Blues 2-1 loss on Long Island on Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Sens conclude their road trip in St. Louis on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' is 14-5 with Ottawa coming off a game in which it scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 8.3 goals. So far this season, the 'over' is 7-1 when the Sens follow up a game that saw four total goals or less, also the situation here, leading to an average total of 8.7 goals. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to take a zig-zag approach when it comes to Blues totals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 33-22 with St. Louis coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 6.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Coyotes v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. While this matchup pits two non-contenders from opposite conferences, I don't expect any shortage of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night at Little Caesars Arena. The Coyotes ended a stretch of scoring three goals or less in seven straight games with an eight-goal explosion against Ottawa on Saturday. They're well-positioned to keep it going against a Red Wings squad that has had a miserable time keeping the puck out of its own net lately, allowing 27 goals over their last five games alone. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to start in goal for Detroit - an area that has been a real sore spot for the Wings. Nedeljkovic has posted a .889 save percentage over his last four starts. The 'over' is 12-9 in his 21 home starts this season, where he has posted a .901 save percentage this season. Interestingly, the Coyotes average an impressive 4.5 goals per game with an average total of 6.8 goals after being outshot by 8+ shots in three consecutive games this season (four-game sample size). While the 'Yotes allow a disappointing 3.7 goals per game overall this season, that average rises to 4.2 goals per game when coming off a win, as is the case here (15-game sample size). As for the Red Wings, they average only 2.9 goals this season but that average increases to 3.6 goals per contest after losing five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here (nine-game sample size). The 'over' is 10-3 with the Wings coming off a road loss by two or more goals this season, resulting in an average of 7.0 total goals in that spot. Take the over (6*). |
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03-06-22 | Senators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Arizona yesterday, falling by an 8-5 score against Arizona. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 with the Sens coming off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 when Ottawa follows up a game that saw 7+ total goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Knights check in off a 5-4 win in Anaheim on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 when they come off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 5.1 goals in that situation. When the Knights play at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous contest over the last two seasons, the 'under' has gone 23-13 in their next game, averaging just 5.0 total goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins enter this game off three straight 'over' results while the Blue Jackets have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. I'll go the other way on Saturday as the two teams match up in Columbus. Starting goaltenders have been confirmed with Jeremy Swayman manning the net for the Bruins and Elvis Merzlikins starting in a back-to-back spot for the Jackets. Swayman has been tremendous lately, posting a .965 save percentage over his last four games. Merzlikins has certainly been the Jackets best option as well, recording a .916 save percentage on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-7 with the Bruins playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The B's enter this game having scored a whopping 15 goals over their last three contests. Note that they've accomplished that feat only twice previously this season, with the 'under' cashing in their next game on both occasions. Take the under (7*). |
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03-05-22 | Blues v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in early action on Saturday. The Blues are coming off a wild 5-3 loss against the Rangers on Wednesday. They've had a couple of day to stew over that poor defensive effort and should come back strong in this spot. Note that the 'under' is 36-21 with the Blues coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 46-29 with St. Louis off a game that totalled seven goals or more over the last three seasons. The Isles continue to struggle and enter this game following consecutive losses against the Avalanche and Canucks, allowing nine goals in the process. Keep in mind, New York allows just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season, leading to an average total of only 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 15-4 with the Isles playing at home off consecutive 'over' results, with an average total of only 4.0 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also an incredible 11-2 after New York scores 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Penguins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Penguins exploded for five goals in an unlikely blowout win in Tampa last night while the Hurricanes were blanked by a 4-0 score in Washington. I believe we're set up for a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in Raleigh on Friday night, even after the lone previous meeting this season totalled seven goals on February 20th. Note that the Penguins allow just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes are giving up only 2.2 goals per contest on home ice. Carolina has allowed eight goals over its last two games and that's notable as it has happened on only five previous occasions this season. In the Canes next game after giving up 8+ goals over a two-game stretch they've allowed only 1, 3, 1, 3 and 0 goals with the 'under' cashing in three of those five contests. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 29-12 with Carolina coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Pittsburgh scored five goals last night but had been held to a grand total of nine goals over its previous five games. Take the under (6*). |
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03-04-22 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. There are times when the oddsmakers simply can't set a total high enough and I believe that's the case for Friday's matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning in Tampa. Detroit is a mess in goal right now with regular starter Alex Nedeljkovic struggling mightily, having posted a ridiculous .825 save percentage over his last four starts. Backup Thomas Greiss isn't necessarily a better option though. He owns a .865 save percentage in 10 road games (nine starts) this season, with the 'over' cashing in seven of those nine starts. The good news for Detroit is that it has been scoring with some consistency. The Wings have scored three goals or more in 13 of their last 16 games. Tonight they'll likely get the opportunity to go against Lightning backup goaltender Brian Elliott. He owns a .902 save percentage this season but that number drops to .873 here at home. The 'over' is 7-1 in his eight starts. The Lightning will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following last night's lifeless effort in a 5-1 loss to the Penguins. That really came out of nowhere as they had been lighting it up offensively, scoring 4, 6, 5, 3 and 5 goals over their last five games. Note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Bolts coming off a loss by 3+ goals this season. They've averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game in that situation with an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Canucks v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks have seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday. Note that Vancouver still averages just 2.8 goals per game on the road this season and checks in averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss by 3+ goals over the last two seasons (19-game sample size), as is the case here following Monday's 7-2 loss in New Jersey. Backup goaltender Jaro Halak started that game. We should see Thatcher Demko back between the pipes for this one, noting that he has recorded a terrific .945 save percentage over his last four games. The Islanders are back home following a long road trip that wrapped up with a 5-3 loss in Colorado two nights ago. Note that the 'under' is 19-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Isles having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season as they've averaged just 2.2 goals per game in that spot. That's 0.4 goals per game lower than their season scoring average. New York will likely be without one of its top offensive threats again tonight in Mat Barzal as he continues to deal with a leg injury. Take the under (6*). |
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03-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Now that we have confirmation of the goaltending matchup, we can step in with a play on the 'under' in this divisional showdown. We actually won with the 'over' in the Caps most recent game - a wild 5-3 home loss to the Maple Leafs. With that being said, we lost with the 'under' in the Canes most recent game - a 4-3 overtime loss in Detroit two nights ago. We probably deserved a better fate in that one as the score was tied 1-1 entering the third period and was still 2-2 with less than five minutes remaining. Nevertheless, I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. The Canes started backup goaltender Antti Rantta in Detroit but will turn back to Frederik Andersen for this one. Andersen has been terrific, posting a .942 save percentage over his last four games. Going back over his last seven starts you'll see that the Canes gave up 0, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0 and 1 goal in those contests with the 'under' going 4-3. The Caps will have Vitek Vanecek back for his first start in over a month. He came on in relief of an ineffective Ilya Samsonov against Toronto on Monday and allowed just a single goal. In Vanecek's last 10 starts, the Caps allowed 2, 2, 3, 0, 3, 4, 2, 1, 0 and 3 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Hurricanes playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' when these two teams last met back on February 20th as the Golden Knights skated to a 4-1 win in San Jose. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. It's worth noting that the Knights have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game, good for a 16-11-2 o/u record and an average total of 6.3 goals scored. After being held to just 10 goals in their last six games combined, the Knights are certainly looking for an opportunity to bust out of their scoring slump, and this would appear to be an ideal spot to do just that, noting that they've scored 23 goals in their last five meetings with the Sharks and have won 12 of 13 matchups in this series over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in each of Vegas' last three games - matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it posted three straight 'unders', it followed it up with a 5-4 home win over the Ducks. As for the Sharks, note that the 'over' is 9-1 when they come off consecutive games totalling four goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a ridiculous 10-7 home loss to the Maple Leafs on Saturday night but I expect nothing of the sort to play out on Tuesday as they stay home to host the surging Hurricanes. Carolina checks in having allowed three goals or less in eight straight games and has given up just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time the Wings hung more than three goals on the Canes. Carolina skated to a 5-3 win in Raleigh in the first matchup between these two teams this season. That's worth noting as the Wings have posted a 14-28 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Going back to that high-scoring result on Saturday here in Motown, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 8-1 when coming off a game that totalled 9+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 4.3 goals in that spot. We have seen the Wings show the ability to tighten things up defensively when they need to here at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here. Take the under (7*). |
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02-28-22 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Monday. These two teams haven't met since back in October of 2019 so it's easy to forget how entertaining their previous matchups were. Going all the way back to November of 2017, their last seven meetings totalled 6, 7, 6, 9, 5, 7 and 7 goals. The Leafs are of course coming off a circus-like 10-7 win in Detroit on Saturday night. While that final scoreline was somewhat shocking, the fact is, high-scoring games involving the Leafs have been the norm when they play on the road this season. They're averaging 3.9 goals per game away from home but also giving up an average of 3.3. Goaltending continues to be an issue for Toronto with both Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek struggling. We should see Campbell on Monday, noting that he has posted an .888 save percentage over his last four games. Washington hasn't been much better between the pipes, with Ilya Samsonov recording an .890 save percentage here at home, with the 'over' cashing at a 9-4 clip in his 13 starts. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-6 with the Caps coming off a game in which three total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. Interestingly, the Caps check in allowing 3.6 goals per game when playing at home off a road loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.4 goals (15-game sample size). I don't expect goals to be hard to come by in this one. Take the over (7*). |
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02-27-22 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We've now seen three straight games go 'over' the total on the Islanders current road trip. While we've missed with the 'under' in their last two contests, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We'll note again that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals, as is the case here following last night's 5-2 loss in Los Angeles, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-6 with New York playing on the road after suffering a loss by 3+ goals in their previous game, also the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.6 goals. The Ducks are coming off a lopsided defeat of their own against the Kings, dropping a 4-1 decision on Friday night. Note that they're still allowing just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season, having posted a 12-15 o/u record here on the Pond. Save for a seven-goal explosion in Vancouver last week, the Ducks offense has been fairly quiet lately, scoring three goals or less in six of their last eight games overall. Interestingly, Anaheim has averaged just 2.0 goals per game at home in the second half of the season over the last two campaigns. Take the under (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Islanders v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the Islanders most recent game but did cash the Sharks +1.5 goals in that 4-3 San Jose shootout victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as the Isles continue their road trip in Los Angeles on Saturday, however. Note that the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 3.8 goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with New York having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, leading to an average total of just 4.2 goals. As for the Kings, they've seen the 'under' cash at a 13-4 clip when playing at home off a win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also an identical 13-4 with the Kings coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, leading to just 4.6 total goals on average in that spot. The first meeting between these two teams totalled only five goals as the Kings defeated the Isles by a 3-2 score on January 27th. The 'under' is 8-6 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. Take the under (9*). |
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02-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in their most recent game. In the case of the Coyotes, they're fresh off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Note that the Knights skated to a 7-1 rout of the Coyotes here in Glendale in their lone previous meeting this season. Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. While the Coyotes aren't lighting the lamp with a lot of consistency at home this season they have managed to score three goals or more in four of their last five games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 with Arizona playing at home off consecutive 'under' results this season with that situation producing an average total of 8.0 goals. The 'over' is also 12-3 with the Coyotes seeking revenge for a loss by 3+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.9 goals scored in that spot. The Knights, meanwhile, have posted a 14-5 o/u mark when coming off an 'under' result this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.8 goals. While the Knights gave up just a single goal in their most recent game - a 4-1 win in San Jose on Sunday (we won with the 'under' in that game), they've still allowed 13 goals over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold when they match up in San Jose on Thursday. The Isles skated to a 5-2 win over the expansion Kraken two nights ago. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 10-2 with New York coming off a game in which it scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Isles playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have posted a 4-13 o/u record after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals in that spot. Keep in mind the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only three goals. The 'under' has cashed in 11 of the last 16 matchups in this series. Take the under (7*). |
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02-24-22 | Flames v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks enter this game off three consecutive 'over' results but I expect that streak to end here, noting that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled just one goal back in late January (we won with the Flames in that game). Calgary has allowed two goals or less in eight straight games with the 'under' cashing in its last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Flames have played on the road off six or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 11-3 with the Canucks playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.2 goals scored in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with Vancouver seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, leading to only 4.4 total goals on average in that situation. Keep in mind, while the Canucks have scored a whopping 14 goals over the course of their three-game winning streak, they average only 2.6 goals per game (and an average total of 5.2 goals) here at home this season while the Flames give up just 2.6 goals per contest on the road. Take the under (6*). |
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02-24-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Preds are coming off a wild, high-scoring 6-4 win in Florida two nights ago but I expect nothing of the sort as they host the Starts, who are fresh off a 3-2 overtime win over the Jets last night. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.6 goals. In fact, the 'under' is 11-2 with Nashville returning home off a road win over the last three seasons, with that spot producing just 4.5 total goals on average. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-6 with the Stars coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Finally, I'll note that each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Nashville have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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02-23-22 | Oilers v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in Edmonton's 7-3 home loss to the Wild on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Oilers head to the Sunshine State to open an eastern road swing against the Lightning. Sunday's lopsided loss snapped a five-game winning streak for the Oilers. During that winning streak, they allowed a grand total of only eight goals. I'm willing to chalk up Sunday's seven goals allowed against Minnesota as a short-term anomaly, even if I'm not all that high on Edmonton's long-term defensive prospects. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Oilers playing on the road off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of only 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with Edmonton following a game where eight or more total goals were scored this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.5 goals. The Lightning, meanwhile, come into this one hot off consecutive road wins, scoring a whopping 10 goals in the process. Keep in mind, those performances came against the Coyotes and Devils - two of the league's weakest teams. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Lightning home games this season, with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Lightning playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. Finally, I'll note that nine of the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Tampa have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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02-22-22 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Sharks most recent game - a 4-1 home loss to the Golden Knights on Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as they make the short trip to Anaheim to face the Ducks. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Sharks coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.2 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 with the Sharks playing on the road off consecutive losses this season, leading to an average total of 5.0 goals. The Ducks exploded for seven goals in their most recent game but prior to that they had been held to three goals or less in five consecutive games. They've sagged defensively of late, yielding a whopping 17 goals over their last three games. A return home should help, however, noting that Anaheim allows only 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season, while the Sharks average 2.8 goals per contest on the road. Take the under (6*). |
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02-22-22 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in Columbus' most recent game - a 7-3 victory over the lowly Sabres on Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as the Blue Jackets face a much tougher challenge at home against a Maple Leafs squad coming off consecutive losses, including an ugly 5-2 defeat in Montreal last night. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Leafs playing on the road off a road loss by 3+ goals over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 5.1 goals in that spot. As for the Jackets, they've posted a 3-11 o/u record after winning six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here tonight, leading to an average total of only 4.3 goals scored. In the longer-term picture, the 'under' is 55-34 with Columbus playing at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game. This is certainly a contrarian play given the two teams' recent form, however it is worth noting that the 'under' is 5-3 in the last eight meetings in this series. Take the under (8*). |
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02-22-22 | Blues v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Despite a scoreless first period, the Flyers ultimately posted another 'over' result yesterday afternoon as they fell by a 4-3 score in overtime against Carolina. The 'over' has now cashed in their last five games overall. The Blues are coming off a high-scoring game of their own, as they skated to a 6-3 win in Toronto on Saturday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 53-36 with the Blues coming off an 'over' result over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. When playing on the road after winning two of their last three games, the Blues have posted a 16-26 o/u mark over the last two seasons, also resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals in that situation. Better still, we'll note that St. Louis has seen the 'under' go 26-14 after scoring 5+ goals in its previous contest over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.4 goals. As for the Flyers, the 'under' has gone 10-2 when they play at home off three consecutive games that totalled 7+ goals, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've seen eight of the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia stay 'under' the total with those games rounding off to an average total of 5.0 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken are looking to salvage something from their western Canadian road trip after dropping consecutive games in Winnipeg and Calgary. Credit Seattle for holding a red hot Flames squad (no pun intended) to just a single goal on Saturday but it still fell short thanks to an offense that has really struggled away from home this season, averaging just 2.5 goals per contest. The Canucks suffered an ugly 7-4 home loss against the Ducks on Saturday. That high-scoring result was the exception rather than the rule here at home this season, where the Canucks have seen their games total an average of only 5.2 goals. Here, we'll note that Vancouver has seen the 'under' cash at an 8-2 clip when playing at home off a loss this season, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The 'under' is 15-6 with the Canucks playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.4 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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02-20-22 | Wild v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Edmonton at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We're being given a very generous total to work with for this Sunday night affair between two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions. The Wild are a terrific offensive team but they're not scoring with any consistency right now, having potted three goals or less in four of their last five games. On a positive note, they have allowed just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons with that situation leading to an average total of only 5.4 goals. The Oilers have given up a grand total of only eight goals over the course of their five-game winning streak. Note that they have seen the 'under' go 14-6 when playing at home off a road victory by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here following yesterday's 4-2 win in Winnipeg, resulting in an average total of only 5.8 goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just five total goals. The 'under' has cashed in 26 of the last 42 matchups between them here in Edmonton, averaging just 5.0 total goals per contest. Take the under (7*). |
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02-20-22 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and San Jose at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring 'over' results last time out but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Sunday in San Jose. The Golden Knights blew an early lead in an eventual 4-3 overtime loss against the Kings on Friday. They continue to play on without a number of key contributors, including Mark Stone and Robin Lehner, but did recently welcome Jack Eichel back from injury. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 29-16 with Vegas playing on the road after a game that totalled 7+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.3 goals. The Knights have also seen the 'under' go 13-4 when coming off an overtime loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.0 goals. As for the Sharks, they're coming off an OT loss of their own against the Canucks. The 'under' is a terrific 31-11 after allowing 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-3 after San Jose gives up 3+ goals in consecutive games this season with an average total of 5.4 goals scored in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-20-22 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Columbus at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they square off in Columbus on Sunday. Note that the Sabres average just 2.5 goals per game with an average total of 6.0 goals scored when they play on the road this season. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 when Buffalo plays on the road in the second half of a back-to-back this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 goals. As for the Blue Jackets, they've seen the 'under' go 11-2 when coming off six or seven wins in their eight games over the last three seasons, which is the case here, leading to an average total of only 3.8 goals. Additionally, the 'under' is 12-4 when the Jackets return home following a road game where both teams scored 3+ goals, which is also the situation here following Thursday's 7-4 win in Chicago, with an average total of just 4.3 goals in that spot. Take the under (5*). |
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02-17-22 | Bruins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Bruins have scored just five goals combined over their last four games and don't figure to show much improvement on Thursday as they travel to Long Island to face the Islanders. Note that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Bruins coming off a road loss this season, as is the case here following Tuesday's 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Rangers, with an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. Better still, the 'under' is 10-2 with the Bruins checking in off a game where they were held to a goal or less over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of only 3.7 goals. As for the Isles, they've lost three straight games, with the 'over' cashing in each of their last two contests. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 when they play at home off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.8 goals. When coming off consecutive games in which 7+ total goals were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, the Isles have seen an average total of only 4.4 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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02-17-22 | Senators v. Sabres UNDER 6 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We've seen both previous meetings between these two teams total five goals or less this season and I expect more of the same on Thursday in Buffalo. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Sabres last four games but I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Sens coming off an 'over' result this season, resulting in an average total of 5.2 goals. The 'under' is also 19-9 with the Sens playing on the road after giving up 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals scored in that spot. As for the Sabres, they've seen the 'under' go a perfect 8-0 when seeking revenge for a road loss by 4+ goals against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with an average total of only 3.9 goals scored in that situation. Take the under (9*). |
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02-17-22 | Blues v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blues have scored 14 goals over their last three games and opened their current road trip with a 5-2 win in Ottawa on Tuesday (we won with St. Louis in that game). While this certainly looks like another layup against the lowly Habs, I prefer to go 'under' the total in a bit of a contrarian spot here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with St. Louis coming off consecutive games in which it scored 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is also 25-15 with the Blues on the road after winning two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 5.6 goals. As for the Canadiens, they've seen the 'under' go 24-11 when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss by 2+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.3 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a solid 34-22 with the Habs playing at home off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, which is the case here following Sunday's 5-3 loss to Buffalo. Take the under (6*). |
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02-17-22 | Red Wings v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Red Wings have seen their last four games go 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday night in New York. Detroit has had a couple of days to stew over Monday's ugly 7-4 loss in Minnesota. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 with the Wings coming off a game where both teams scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Rangers check in off a 2-1 win over the undermanned Bruins on Tuesday. They've seen the 'under' go 11-1 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game this season, with an average total of just 4.4 goals scored in that situation. The 'under' is also 14-4 with the Blueshirts playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals. While New York has plenty of offensive firepower it has also quietly been an extremely stingy team here at home, allowing only 2.3 goals per contest. It may not need to score a lot to secure a win here, noting that Detroit averages only 2.6 goals per game on the road. Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 6 | 3-0 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are coming off three straight low-scoring 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to San Jose to face a Sharks squad that has been idle since February 1st. Note that Edmonton has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 goals per game. Better still, the Oilers have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off a home victory over the last three seasons. That is of course the situation here following Saturday's 3-1 win over the Islanders. Here, they'll face a Sharks squad that has struggled to keep the puck out of their own net all season here at home, allowing 3.3 goals per game. On the flip side, San Jose had scored just three goals over is last two contests - both losses - prior to the extended layoff. Note that the Sharks average 3.6 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season (11-game sample size). While San Jose has predominantly been an 'under' team this season (18-28 o/u record), the 'over' has gone 5-4 when it comes off a two-game stretch in which it managed to score three goals or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 6.2 goals. With regular starter Mikko Koskinen on the Covid list, we're likely to see Mike Smith between the pipes for the Oilers. The last time he faced the Sharks the result was a 6-3 San Jose victory here in California. Take the over (8*). |