Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-08-24 | Luxembourg v. Belgium -2.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belgium -2.5 goals over Luxembourg at 2 pm et on Saturday. Belgium couldn't have come away all that pleased with its narrow 2-0 victory over Montenegro in its most recent Euro 2024 tune up match. It didn't find the back of the net until a minute before halftime in that contest and only extended the lead on a penalty beyond the 90th minute. Here, I expect Belgium to have no such trouble as it hosts minnow Luxembourg. Note that Belgium has gone undefeated across its last 14 matches and generally plays on its front foot having been the 'first to score' in eight of its last 10 contests and carried a lead into halftime in the same. Luxembourg checks in having allowed the first goal in six of its last eight matches. You would have to go back four contests to find the last time it recorded a clean sheet. No danger of that happening against a loaded Belgium squad in Brussels on Saturday. Take Belgium -2.5 goals (8*). |
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12-18-22 | France v. Argentina | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on France pk (90 minutes) over Argentina at 10 am et on Sunday. I'll take a flyer on France in the World Cup Final on Sunday as it looks to secure its second straight title going back to 2018. Argentina has been a great story in this tournament with Messi taking his last run at the trophy for his country. The fact that it has done so after many wrote it off following a tournament-opening loss to Saudi Arabia is impressive to say the least. I've been more impressed by France's complete body of work in this tournament, however. Even against a cagey Morocco squad in the semi-final round, when it was under siege for much of the contest, the French held strong and ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score. You'd be hard-pressed to find any France starter rating out poorly in this tournament. Even goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has seemingly gotten stronger as the tournament has gone on, saving his best for that semi-final victory over Morocco. I do think Argentina has some weakness on its back line, particularly on the right side. Keeper Emiliano Martinez was strong against Croatia but has had an up-and-down tournament. While there's a good chance this contest ultimately needs extra time to decide, I'm willing to back France at a lower price as it looks to halt Argentina's five-game winning streak and claim the title of 'best in the world' once again. Take France pk (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Brazil v. Croatia +1.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Croatia +1.5 goals over Brazil at 10 am et on Friday. I don't think we see Croatia - which was a finalist in the 2018 World Cup - go away quietly the way South Korea did at the hands of mighty Brazil in the knockout stage. Keep in mind, the Checkered Ones enter this match riding a 10-game undefeated streak and know how to keep the opposition in check with four of their last five contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. Croatia has proven to be incredible difficult to break down in this tournament with the foursome of Juranovic, Lovren, Gvardiol and Sosa rating out near the top in terms of defensive back lines. Keeper Dominik Livakovic is also coming off his best performance of the tournament in the knockout stage thriller against Japan. Brazil turned in its most dominant performance of the tournament in a rout of South Korea but now has nowhere to go but down in my opinion. I still feel it can be had in the back and with Croatia's Ivan Perisic coming off a 'turn back the clock' performance, he's the man to watch in this contest. Take Croatia +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Switzerland +0.5 v. Portugal | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Switzerland +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a flyer on Switzerland grabbing a half-goal against Portugal here as I believe there's a considerably better than 50/50 chance that this one is all-level (or the Swiss leading) after 90 minutes. Portugal has impressed in the tournament so far but it's not as if it has been blowing the doors off the opposition. Switzerland has been down this road before, giving tougher opponents all they can handle in previous tournament. In other words, I don't believe the stage is too big for the Swiss here. They were in a pressure-packed situation against Serbia last Friday and came through with flying colours. I believe both sides will ultimately prove difficult to break down in this one, with a 1-1 result after 90 minutes a quite likely outcome. The status of Swiss keeper Yann Sommer will obviously be important to keep an eye on leading up to the match. If he's able to man the goal, I would consider sprinkling a little on the Swiss three-way moneyline as well here. Take Switzerland +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-06-22 | Spain v. Morocco +1 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Morocco +1 goal over Spain at 10 am et on Tuesday. I think a lot of casual bettors saw all they needed from Spain in its boot-stomping 7-0 rout of Costa Rica two weeks ago. Since then, the Spaniards have managed a draw against Germany and a defeat at the hands of Japan to ultimately finish second in their group, leading to a date with upstart Morocco in the knockout stage on Tuesday. This is likely the matchup that Spain actually wanted - that was evident in its late game activity when trailing against Japan last time out. I do think this could be a 'be careful what you wish for' situation, however, as Morocco can give it trouble in my opinion. Here, we'll note that Morocco in now undefeated in its last nine matches across all competitions. It has successfully put the opposition on its back foot more often than not, striking first in six of its last eight contests. So again, its short-term success in this tournament hasn't been a fluke by any means. Of course, facing Spain is no easy task as it has scored first in five consecutive matches. With that being said, this is a side that has only managed to come away victorious in five of its last 10 contests overall with three of those victories coming by more than a single goal. I believe there's a good chance we see these two sides all square through 90 minutes, similar to what we saw from Japan and Croatia yesterday. But rather than play the 'draw' we'll give due respect to Morocco and catch a little insurance in the process. Take Morocco +1 goal (8*). |
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12-05-22 | South Korea +1.5 v. Brazil | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea +1.5 goals over Brazil at 2 pm et on Monday. While it faces a considerable challenge in this contest, I'm not going to write off South Korea just yet. Yes, Brazil entered as the tournament favorites and despite the stunning loss to Cameroon at the end of group stage play we haven't really seen anything to indicate it should be knocked from its pedestal. However, we're catching an insurance goal here, and also being offered a plus-money return. South Korea has produced some thrilling moments already in this tournament, needing a victory over Portugal, and getting it after trailing 1-0 to advance in its final match of the group stage. I don't expect it to back down here. I actually like the fact that it was severely outclassed when these two teams met back in June (Brazil won that contest 5-1). Adjustments are obviously necessary and I'm confident we'll see those adjustments pay dividends for South Korea. Take South Korea +1.5 goals (8*). |
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12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan +0.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Japan +0.5 goals over Croatia at 10 am et on Monday. We've seen a straight-forward and rather uneventful first four matches in the knockout round of this tournament but I expect that to change on Monday. First on the card is World Cup 2018 finalist Croatia taking on Japan in a favored role. I don't believe there's much separating these two squads and in a match that projects to be very low-scoring (the standard total is set at 2.0), I'm confident the Samurai Blue can keep proceedings level through 90 minutes. Croatia has of course been here before and while it has gone undefeated through three matches in this tournament, I haven't been overly impressed, with its lone victory coming off a Canadian squad that wasn't necessarily ready for the big stage. In its other two matches, Croatia failed to find the back of the net and I think it could be hard-pressed to do so again here. Japan has failed to record a clean sheet in any of its last four matches but there's comfort in the fact that it yielded just a single goal in all four of those contests. Take Japan +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-02-22 | Portugal v. South Korea +0.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea +0.5 goals over Portugal at 10 am et on Friday. Portugal has impressed through two matches in this tournament, securing all six points in victories over Ghana and Uruguay. I do think it faces a more cagey affair here against a desperate South Korea squad that currently sits last-place in Group H, needing a win and help to advance in the tournament. It's not as if Portugal's success has been long-lived. It has won just three matches in a row going back prior to the start of the World Cup. I like the fact that South Korea's back line rates out exceptionally well in this tournament, despite the fact that it yielded three goals last time out against Ghana. Remember, the South Koreans opened the tournament with a clean sheet in a nil-nil draw against Uruguay. I do think it's only a matter of time (and time is clearly running out) before South Korea shows some creativity in attack and ultimately pushes Portugal in that regard here. There's simply too much talent up front for the South Koreans to go away with a whimper. Take South Korea +0.5 goals (8*). |
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12-01-22 | Germany -2.5 v. Costa Rica | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Group Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Germany -2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 2 pm et on Thursday. We actually won with Costa Rica +1 goal against Japan in its most recent match so there is some level of respect for the CONCACAF side but I simply feel it's a 'wrong place, wrong time' situation against a vastly superior German squad on Thursday and will confidently lay the 2.5 goals with Die Mannschaft here. Despite the 1-0 victory last time out, I still have Costa Rica rating out poorly through two matches in this tournament to date. Keeper Keylor Navas might be the weakest link of all, which obviously spells trouble as he tries to keep a loaded German offense that's just bubbling under the surface and poised for a breakout performance here. Let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a Costa Rican side that is just one game removed from a 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Spain. Unlike yesterday's match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia, where the Mexicans needed to win by margin and couldn't quite close the deal, the Germans will undoubtedly be poised under the pressure and I look for them to do a much better job of capitalizing on their opportunities here. Costa Rica doesn't have that same level of talent or creativity up front as the Saudis possessed, even if it did take the latter until the final stages to finally secure a goal yesterday. German keeper Manuel Neuer hasn't been at his best through two matches in this tournament but this is a big spot for him to rise to the occasion and quite honestly, I don't expect him to be challenged much at all here. Take Germany -2.5 goals (10*). |
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11-30-22 | France v. Tunisia +1.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tunisia +1.5 goals over France at 10 am et on Wednesday. Short on time with kickoff fast approaching but we’ll take a shot with Tunisia now that +1.5 prices are more widely available. Tunisia the forgotten team in this group after a 1-0 loss to Australia. Still have a shot at advancing but need a win along with a DEN-AUS draw. Not outside the realm of possibility given how this tourney has proceeded. Tunisia can be a frustrating squad to break down and a positive result isn’t an absolute necessity for the French here. Take Tunisia +1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-28-22 | Uruguay +0.5 v. Portugal | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Uruguay +0.5 goals over Portugal at 2 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel Portugal will be hard-pressed to pick up a full six points in its first two matches of this tournament as it faces the prospect of a cagey affair against Uruguay on Monday. Portugal impressed in its opener and ultimately prevailed thanks in part to a somewhat questionable Cristiano Ronaldo penalty. If there was something negative to say about that overall performance, it was its form on the back line with Cancelo, Dias, Pereira and Guerreiro looking less than air-tight in defense. Keeper Diogo Costa rated out poorly in that 3-2 victory over Ghana as well. We won with the 'under' in Uruguay's tournament-opening 0-0 draw against South Korea. I do expect Uruguay to break the seal and find the back of the net for the first time in this tournament on Monday. However, this does project as a relatively low-scoring affair with the total set at 2.0. Depending on the earlier result between South Korea and Ghana, a draw should suit both Portugal and Uruguay just fine here. Noting that four of Uruguay's last five matches across all competitions have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we'll confidently back it plus the half-goal here. Take Uruguay +0.5 goals (8*). |
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11-27-22 | Morocco +0.5 v. Belgium | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Morocco +0.5 goals over Belgium at 8 am et on Sunday. I didn't come away one bit impressed by Belgium's tournament-opening 1-0 victory over Canada. That could have been a much different match were it not for a missed penalty from Alphonso Davies early on and the reality was, the Canadians took the play to the Belgians for the majority of the game's 90 minutes. Morocco may be considered an upstart off its draw with Croatia to open this tournament but I believe it is capable of going on a deep tournament run. Undefeated across its last seven matches in all competitions, look for Morocco to give Belgium all it can handle on Sunday, with a draw benefiting both teams in reality. Take Morocco +0.5 goals (8*). |
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11-27-22 | Costa Rica +1 v. Japan | 1-0 | Win | 115 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Costa Rica +1 goal over Japan at 5 am et on Sunday. It doesn't get much worse than Costa Rica's 7-0 drilling at the hands of Spain in its World Cup opener earlier this week. That result should have bettors flocking to lay the goal with Japan - which pulled off a stunning 2-1 come-from-behind victory over Germany (we won with the 'over' in that match) - ahead of Sunday's match. I believe it's the wrong move, however. The Japanese took full advantage of an over-aggressive Germany attack, countering to perfection late in the second half to secure the match-winning goal. I fully expect to see Costa Rica settle into a frustrating defensive shell in this match, turning the tables on Japan as it looks to take advantage of the favored side's aggressiveness here. Despite what we saw from both sides earlier in the week, I believe the 'draw' is in play here. Take Costa Rica +1 goal (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Senegal v. Qatar +1 | 3-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Qatar +1 goal over Senegal at 8 am et on Friday. Host Qatar looked lifeless in its tournament-opening loss to Ecuador - the team that many had picked to finish in last place in this group. Needless to say, a far more inspired effort will be required in order for the hosts to keep their slim hopes of advancement in this tournament alive as they face Senegal on Friday. Senegal put forth a valiant effort but ultimately fell on two late goals against Netherlands in its opener. I believe grabbing the insurance goal with host nation Qatar is the right decision here, especially considering both squads have seen four of their last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. Last Sunday's match marked the first time in five contests that Qatar didn't strike first. I do think we see it find the back of the net for the first time in the tournament on Friday, ultimately giving Senegal all it can handle in a cagey affair. Take Qatar +1 goal (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Iran +0.5 v. Wales | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
World Cup Game of the Week. My selection is on Iran +0.5 goals over Wales at 5 am et on Friday. Entering this tournament, I felt that Wales would be hard-pressed to come away with a victory in a sneaky-tough group that includes USA, England and Iran. It managed to earn a draw against the Americans (we won with the draw in that match) thanks to a late converted penalty by Gareth Bale but I expect it to be given all it can handle against Iran again on Friday. The Iranians fell in a blowout against England in their World Cup opener. They were never competitive in that affair but I'm confident we'll see them bounce right back in a far more favorable matchup here. Despite the setback, we did see flashes of brilliance from the Iran attack. Here, I'm confident it will have more freedom to operate as it's unlikely to be under constant siege at the hands of a far more manageable Wales offense. Noting that Wales has conceded the first goal and also gone winless across its last six matches in all competitions, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal with Iran here. Take Iran +0.5 goals (10*). |
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11-24-22 | Ghana +1.5 v. Portugal | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ghana +1.5 goals over Portugal at 11 am et on Thursday. Despite still boasting plenty of star-power, Portugal has been a bit of an afterthought heading into this tournament. Rightfully so, in my opinion. Should Cristiano Ronaldo even be given the starting nod up front given his recent form? Probably not but he'll be right there nonetheless. The Portuguese will have their work cut out for them trying to break down a typically tough last line of defense for Ghana. In their last seven matches across all competitions, only Brazil has managed to find the back of the net against the African side. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Portugal offense in recent months. I think we're talking about a side that would be absolutely thrilled to come away with three points from this opener but I don't believe the path to that result is going to be straight-forward at all. Noting that the 'under' 2.5 total goals has cashed in four of Ghana's last five matches overall while it has rippled the net first in five of its last six contests, grabbing that insurance goal, even with the juice, is the right decision here in my opinion. Take Ghana +1.5 goals (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Croatia v. Morocco +0.5 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Morocco +0.5 goals over Croatia at 5 am et on Wednesday. Just a straight fade of a veteran Croatian side after it delivered five consecutive outright victories in as many matches heading into this tournament, not to mention the fact that the Checkered Ones reached the World Cup final back in 2018. I believe Morocco can be that upstart squad in Group F as it looks to build off an encouraging, albeit fruitless appearance in the 2018 World Cup. Like Croatia, Morocco enters this tournament playing well also. It hasn't exactly been the year of the upset, even after yesterday's stunner from Saudi Arabia, but I believe Morocco is capable of pulling off the minor upset in this Group F opener on Wednesday. Take Morocco +0.5 goals (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Poland v. Mexico | 0-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Poland pk over Mexico at 11 am et on Tuesday. With glaring weaknesses at the back-end, Mexico will be hard-pressed to make it out of the group stage in this tournament. My own ratings have Mexican keeper Guillermo Ochoa as one of the weakest netminders in the entire tourney. This is a tougher than it seems opening match against a Polish squad that has suffered nothing but disappointment on the world stage but brings plenty of optimism into this particular tournament. With Robert Lewandowski leading the charge up front, a quick strike is never far off (even though he’s yet to score at the World Cup in one previous appearance). In stark contrast to that of Mexico, Poland actually boasts some true defensive stalwarts at the back-end not to mention a quality keeper between the sticks. We’ll back Poland on the goal-line to avoid an outright loss should the match end in a draw but my hope is we won’t need that insurance. Take Poland pk (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Celtic +2 v. Real Madrid | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Celtic +2 goals over Real Madrid at 1:45 pm et on Wednesday. Real Madrid blanked Celtic 3-0 when these two squads met in early September. While the Scottish side's hopes of advancing to the final 16 have been dashed, I do expect it to still put up a better fight as these two take part in a return match in Madrid on Wednesday. Celtic enters this contest having gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. To illustrate its fine form, it has struck first in each of those five contests while carrying a lead into halftime in four of them. This will obviously be a stiff challenge for Celtic as Real Madrid searches for a victory to wrap up first place in Group F. With that being said, the Spanish side will be without Karim Benzema and might not have its usual fresh legs here in Champions League action, noting that it just wrapped up a month of October that featured nine fixtures. While Celtic have nothing to play for in this particular tournament, there is the matter of pride and after being shut out at the hands of Real Madrid on home soil two months ago, I'm confident we'll see it rise to the occasion here. It's worth noting that to find the last time Celtic lost a match by 3+ goals, you would have to go all the way back to that previous date with Madrid. Take Celtic +2 goals (10*). |
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11-01-22 | Napoli +0.5 v. Liverpool | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 4 pm et on Tuesday. We previously won with Napoli in this same matchup back in early September and while we're not being offered such a generous price this time around - rightfully so - I still won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Italian side catching a half-goal. Napoli has incredibly gone undefeated across its last 28 matches in all competitions. It sits atop the Group A table in Champions League play, three points clear of today's opponent, Liverpool. Note also that Napoli has gone undefeated in its last four contests against the Reds, finding the back of the net at least once in all four matches. While some figure Liverpool is 'due' in this spot, that's not a word that belongs in our handicapping arsenal. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (8*). |
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10-04-22 | Sporting Lisbon +0.5 v. Marseille | 1-4 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sporting CP +0.5 goals first half over Olympique Marseille at 12:45 pm et on Tuesday. Sporting has been the class of Group D with convincing clean sheet victories over both Tottenham and Eintracht Frankfurt. It will need to avoid letting its guard down on Tuesday as it travels to France to challenge winless Marseille. I like its chances of at least getting off to a strong start in this one. Note that Lisbon has scored first in five of its last six matches across all competitions while Marseille has conceded the first goal in four of its last five contests. Noting that Sporting is just one match removed from a disappointing 3-1 defeat at the hands of Boavista in Primeria Liga play I don't envision it coming out flat here. There are advantages all over the field for Lisbon but particularly up front as Marcus Edwards and Francisco Trincao have been excellent while Marseille defenders Mbemba and Gigot have looked vulnerable. Marseille keeper Pau Lopez has been strong in his last few matches but not as sharp in Champions League play. Meanwhile, Sporting keeper Antonio Adan has recorded three consecutive clean sheets in Champions League action. Here, we're only asking for Sporting to keep it level through 45 minutes. Take Sporting CP +0.5 goals first half (8*). |
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09-27-22 | Iceland +0.5 v. Albania | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iceland +0.5 goals over Albania at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. You have to go back seven matches to find the last time Albania posted a victory while Iceland has gone undefeated in its last five matches across all competitions. In fact, Albania hasn't found the back of the net more than once in any of its last 10 matches and when you consider it hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five meetings with Iceland, you can understand why it faces a tough hill to climb laying a half-goal here. There's nothing left to play for in Group 2 as Israel has already wrapped up top spot and the promotion that goes along with it. I don't expect Iceland to simply roll over, however, as it looks to take something away from this trip. Albania did deliver a 4-2 victory over Iceland on home soil back in 2019 but that was with a much different side that boasted plenty of firepower up front. Here, Albania is shorthanded at the midfield position with Endri Cekici and Keidi Bare sidelined due to injury. Take Iceland +0.5 goals (8*). |
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09-22-22 | Moldova v. Latvia -1 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Latvia -1 goal over Moldova at 12 noon et on Thursday. Latvia sits atop the Group 1 standings, five points ahead of second-place Moldova, which happens to be its opponent today. Credit Moldova for taking care of business against the group's weaker teams, Liechtenstein and Andorra but there's little to glean from its 2-0-1 mark in those three contests. Latvia enters this contest having reeled off victories in each of its last five games, going undefeated across its last eight overall. It has also recorded three straight wins in this series against Moldova. While the Latvians are particularly stout at the back-end with wing defenders Roberts Savalnieks and Raivis Jurkovskis in terrific form, the Moldovans have issues in that department. Goalkeeper Dorian Railean has been less than impressive, particularly in the squad's last two matches, including a 4-2 home defeat against Latvia. Defenders Bolohan and Craciun are exploitable as well. In a match that projects to be relatively high-scoring, I'm confident laying a goal with the tougher defensive side with home field being an added bonus. Take Latvia -1 goal (8*). |
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09-21-22 | Ukraine v. Scotland | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
Nations League Game of the Month. My selection is on Ukraine pk over Scotland at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. While things are anything but normal back home, many Ukrainian players have at least gained some return to 'normalcy' with the return of league play and now they have the opportunity to once again play for their country in another key Nations League fixture on Wednesday in Glasgow. Ukraine has gone undefeated across its last three matches since suffering a bitter 1-0 defeat against Wales to miss out on World Cup qualification. Note that it has managed to strike first in seven of its last nine matches across all competitions and now faces a Scottish side that has played far too loose with four of its last five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. I say it has played too loose as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to consistently prevail in relatively high-scoring affairs. I like Ukraine's move to Andriy Lunin between the sticks. He is a Real Madrid man even if he hasn't had much opportunity with the Spanish side to this point. No Zinchenko for Ukraine on Wednesday but it still boasts a first class side with Yaremchuk, Yarmolenko and Mudryk, who has performed well for Shakhtar Donetsk recently. While Scotland is always a tough out in Glasgow, I do expect Ukraine to rise to the occasion here, noting that it currently sits just a single point ahead of the Scots atop the Group 1 standings with a return match on deck in Krakow. Take Ukraine pk (10*). |
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09-15-22 | Manchester United v. Sheriff +2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals over Manchester United at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. We won with Sheriff Tiraspol plus a half-goal in an away match against Omonia in Europa League action last week. Here, we get Tiraspol playing on its home soil in Moldova, knowing it has a monumental opportunity to stage an upset against mighty Manchester United. Sheriff checks in having reeled off three consecutive shutout victories, undefeated across its last eight matches. Manchester United dropped a 1-0 decision against Real Sociedad last week and now faces an uphill battle to climb the Group E standings. While the Red Devils are being priced as a massive favorite here, I believe Tiraspol is well-positioned due to its stingy nature. Note that Sheriff has seen four of its last five matches total less than 2.5 goals. Here, we're being given a massive head start with a two-goal cushion with the home side. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +2 goals (10*). |
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09-14-22 | Salzburg +1.5 v. Chelsea | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We're getting excellent value backing Salzburg with an insurance goal at a near pk'em price on Wednesday. The upstart Austrian side, which boast a roster with an average age of less than 24 years, has gone undefeated across its last eight matches, scoring first in all eight of those contests. Salzburg has carried a lead into halftime in four of its last five contests. Meanwhile, you would have to go back seven matches to find the last time Chelsea recorded a clean sheet. I believe they'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat here as well, which would mean the Blues would need at least three goals to cover the standard goal-line being offered here. We've seen Chelsea play fairly loose lately with five of its last six matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals and I believe that plays into the hands of Salzburg in an underdog role on Wednesday. Take Red Bull Salzburg +1.5 goals (8*). |
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09-14-22 | Benfica +0.5 v. Juventus | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Benfica +0.5 goals over Juventus at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I have to take a flyer with Benfica plus the half-goal here, noting that the Portuguese side has incredibly reeled off 17 consecutive victories heading in. Juventus hasn't been its usual defensively sound self lately, failing to record a clean sheet in its last three matches, going winless over that stretch. Keep in mind, the Italian side has an average age north of 29 years. It will have its hands full with a Benfica squad that has struck first in eight of its last 10 matches across all competitions. Juventus desperately needs to at least come away with a point in this match noting that Benfica and PSG sit atop the Group H table following their respective victories last week. In a match that figures to be of the low-scoring variety, I'm comfortable grabbing the half-goal insurance with the visitors. Take Benfica +0.5 goals (8*). |
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09-08-22 | Sheriff +0.5 v. Omonia Nicosia | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals over Omonia Nicosia at 3 pm et on Thursday. I expect goals to come at a premium in this match (as indicated by the low posted total), for a couple of different reasons. The trends support such a call as Omonia Nicosia has seen seven of its last eight contests feature two goals or less while it's the same story for Sheriff Tiraspol in five of its last six matches. But more than that, these two teams will be desperate to come away with at least a point given the difficult nature of this group, which also features Manchester United and Real Sociedad. Neither team can afford to come away empty-handed here so I can't help but feel a draw is in the best interest of both. Also note that Sheriff enters this match having gone undefeated across its last six matches. While Omonia does have the benefit of playing this one at home, I'm not sure its enough to warrant the favorite tag. Take Sheriff Tiraspol +0.5 goals (8*). |
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09-07-22 | Bayer Leverkusen v. Club Brugge KV +0.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Club Brugge +0.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's not a lot to choose between these two sides but it is worth noting that Club Brugge has gone undefeated across its last five matches, winning four in a row entering Wednesday's clash with Bayer Leverkusen. I like the aggressiveness we've seen from Club Brugge early in recent matches as it has found the back of the net first in eight of its last 10 contests. Leverkusen has played a fairly wide-open style with six of its last seven matches reaching more than 2.5 total goals. Both teams are young and relatively inexperienced in Champions League play but Leverkusen is actually slightly younger with an average age just slightly over 25 years. I'm not convinced the German side is ever able to put this one away in Belgium. Take Club Brugge +0.5 goals (8*). |
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09-07-22 | Liverpool v. Napoli +0.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We're being offered excellent value with Napoli catching half a goal in the first leg of this Champions League matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind, this match will take place in Naples, where Napoli took down Liverpool on two previous occasions in Champions League action in 2018 and 2019. Napoli enters Wednesday's match riding an incredible 16-match undefeated streak. Also note that Liverpool has conceded first in five of its last seven matches overall. Give me the younger Italian side with a chip on its shoulder as an underdog on its home pitch on Wednesday. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (10*). |
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06-14-22 | Latvia -1.5 v. Liechtenstein | 2-0 | Win | 107 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Latvia -1.5 goals over Liechtenstein at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. It's difficult enough for teams in the higher Nations League divisions to get up for these last matches prior to a much-needed summer break, let alone a bottom-feeding minnow such as Liechtenstein. While Latvia paces the D division, Liechtenstein sits at the bottom, having managed just one goal in three Nations League matches - that coming against fellow minnow Andorra. Latvia only managed to defeat today's opponent by a 1-0 score in their previous meeting on June 6th. It wasn't for lack of trying, however, as the Latvians pressed for 90 minutes, possessing the ball at a 62% clip while firing an incredible 20 shots from inside the box. They made a whopping 376 accurate passes in the match compared to 196 by Liechtenstein. While Liechtenstein does have the benefit of home field advantage for this rematch, I expect Latvia to be all-business as it looks to wrap up a perfect group stage in convincing fashion. Take Latvia -1.5 goals (9*). |
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05-28-22 | Real Madrid +0.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Year. My selection is on Real Madrid +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Saturday. There's something special about this Real Madrid squad. It hasn't faced an easy road to reach this Champions League Final - not by any stretch of the imagination. Los Blancos have had to outlast the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City, erasing second half deficits in a number of matches thanks in large part to the heroics of one of the world's best players in Karim Benzema. Now comes arguably the toughest test of all as Liverpool has gone undefeated across its last 18 matches. I'm confident Real Madrid will be up for the challenge. I understand the overwhelming support for Liverpool in this match. After all, Real Madrid could certainly be considered 'lucky' to be here given the nature of its recent Champions League victories. Liverpool on the other hand hasn't left much doubt. There's also the matter of this match being played in France, rather than Madrid where Los Blancos delivered their unthinkable comeback victories. Note that while Los Blancos last two matches resulted in rather uninspiring draws against Cadiz and Real Betis, those lackluster performances weren't unexpected as they had already wrapped up the La Liga crown and were already preparing for this showdown with Liverpool. There's really nothing negative I can say about the Reds here. They field a tremendous level of talent across the board. If there is perhaps one advantage Real Madrid might have it is in the last line of defense as keeper Thibault Courtois has been outstanding and can tilt the scales in a match such as this. Liverpool keeper Alisson is elite in his own right but doesn't bring the same form as Courtois. While most are anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, I'm counting on a tight, low-scoring affair and that should favor underdog Real Madrid. We'll grab the half-goal as insurance as we should be in for another 'instant classic'. Take Real Madrid +0.5 goals (10*). |
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04-27-22 | Inter Milan v. Bologna +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
Soccer Game of the Week. My selection is on Bologna +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 2:15 pm et on Wednesday. Inter Milan enters Wednesday's match in Bologna just two points back of AC Milan, which sits tops in the Serie A table. There's undoubtedly some pressure on Inter to collect all three points in this match and leapfrog Milan. It won't be easy, however. Bologna has gone undefeated across its last four matches and should be well aware of the path to success in this particular contest, having seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Bologna also knows that it can find success against Inter. The most recent meeting came last September, with Inter winning by a lopsided 6-1 score. Prior to that, however, four of the last five matches between these two squads were decided by a single goal. Note that despite being decided underdogs, Bologna has failed to find the back of the net just once in the last five meetings. I'm anticipating a competitive affair on Wednesday. Take Bologna +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-15-22 | Inter Milan v. Spezia Calcio +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Serie A Game of the Month. My selection is on Spezia +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 1 pm et on Friday. Inter Milan rolls into Friday's 'away' match against Spezia off consecutive clean sheet victories. In fact, Inter is undefeated in its last eight matches overall. With that being said, I see this as a tricky contest, noting that both teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring affairs lately. Inter has seen each of its last five contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Spezia in five of its last six matches. With this match being played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia we'll note that the home side has recorded a goal differential of just -1 goal in the role of host this season. Contrast that with its -21 goal differential in enemy territory. Inter Milan, meanwhile, is tops in the Serie A table when factoring in only 'home' affairs but drops to fifth when only considering 'away' matches. This has been a relatively tight series lately with Inter winning two of the last three matches between the two but with just a +3 goal differential over that stretch. Take Spezia +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-06-22 | Mainz v. FC Augsburg +0.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on FC Augsburg +0.5 goals over Mainz at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. While Mainz sits four places and nine points ahead of Augsburg in the Bundesliga table, I don't believe there's all that much separating these two clubs. Much of Mainz' success has been built on its play at home - in fact, factoring in only home matches it would sit in third place in the Bundesliga. However, considering only away matches, Mainz would rank 16th, just two places above the league basement. Note that Mainz has managed only 12 goals in 13 away matches this season, while conceding 23. Contrast that with Augsburg's home tally of 20 goals for and 19 against in the same number of contests. This particular series hasn't been all that favorable for Mainz either as it has conceded at least a goal against Augsburg in 10 consecutive meetings. Augsburg enters this match having lost just once in its last four matches, that coming by a 3-2 score away against Stuttgart. Mainz, meanwhile, will be playing its second away match in the last three days after a hard-fought draw against Monchengladbach on Sunday. Take Augsburg +0.5 goals (8*). |
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04-05-22 | Atletico Madrid +1.5 v. Manchester City | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals over Manchester City at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Most are expecting Manchester City to cruise in the home leg of its clash with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday. I'm not so easily convinced. Atletico Madrid enters this match playing its best football, having won six consecutive matches (undefeated in its last eight). In fact, it has scored first in each of its last eight contests. It's not as if goals have been all that plentiful in Manchester City matches lately with five of its last seven contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. That sort of low-scoring affair would of course be favorable to us with an insurance goal in our back pocket. While Atletico Madrid will certainly have its hands full with a potent Man City attack, it has held up well in 'away' matches in Champions League play, allowing just four goals in as many contests. Take Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals (8*). |