Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-05-19 | Celtics +1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 117-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1. The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning. Boston Celtics 10* play |
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04-04-19 | Cavs +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland is off a 122-113 loss at Phoenix on Monday, while Sacramento is off a 130-105 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs play with revenge here after the Kings scored the 129-110 road win back on December 7th. Cleveland has little to play for at this point obviously, but after six straight losses, I expect it to put up a fight here vs. the floundering Kings, who come in clearly out of gas having lost three of their last four. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically for the visitors. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Cavaliers are already 9-3 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 14-5 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four vs. the spread, while Sacramento is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points. Cleveland Cavaliers 10* play |
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04-03-19 | Rockets +1.5 v. Clippers | Top | 135-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets laid the hammer down on the Kings last night and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. LA is on a 13-2 run in its last 15, but I think it’ll still have its hands full with this surging visiting side. Houston needs to keep the foot on the gas here as it battles Portland for third seed in the Western Conference. LA has beaten Cleveland and Memphis, but the Rockets are an entirely different “animal” obviously. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games, while LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the +0.5 to +3.5 range. Look for James Harden and company to keep it rolling on Wednesday night. 10* play |
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03-31-19 | Mavs +12 v. Thunder | Top | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas comes in off a 105-99 loss in Miami, while OKC fell 115-105 at home to the Nuggets. The Thunder took the last game between these teams 122-102 on December 31st, but the Mavs are 2-1 so far in the season series. OKC is barely holding onto the eighth seed in the West right, tied with the Spurs, so the motivation to play spoiler is definitely real for the visitors today. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing with two days rest, while the Thunder are only 18-19 ATS at home this year and only 4-6 ATS in their last ten off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. OKC continues to stumble and I like Dallas to once again push it to the brink. Grab the points. Dallas Mavericks 10* play |
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03-29-19 | Wizards +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 124-128 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz have won three straight and I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Washington broke a five-game losing streak with a win over Phoenix in its latest outing. So far the Wizards have average 114.3 PPG, while allowing 117.1. The Jazz come in having won eight of their last night, but they still only average 110.0 PPG. Utah does allow only 105.9 PPG, but this is in fact a spot in which its struggled in all year. The pick: As note that the Jazz are just 9-14 ATS this season after two or more consecutive wins. Washington on the other hand is a sharp 23-16 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. Washington Wizards 10* play |
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03-25-19 | Suns +15 v. Jazz | Top | 92-125 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns have lost three straight, but I think they put up a fight here down the stretch and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Phoenix got 32 points from Devin Booker in the Suns’ most recent setback to the Kings. Utah destroyed the Bulls on the road in their last game (after losing on the road in Atlanta), but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight in its first game back from the extended East coast road trip. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Utah is just 1-2 ATS this season after a huge blowout victory of 30 or more points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-25-19 | 76ers -2.5 v. Magic | 98-119 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: Clearly the 76ers won’t be taking anything for granted here. The Magic have won four straight as they try to keep pace in the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. Orlando has lost two of three in the season series as well. But this is a matchup which favors the 76ers. Philadelphia comes in focused as well after getting upset in Atlanta on Sunday. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112, while the Magic average 106.1 PPG, while allowing 106.3. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following at ATS loss and just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Philadelphia is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 following a SU loss. Lay the points. 9* play |
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03-24-19 | Nuggets -1 v. Pacers | Top | 88-124 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver comes to town off a 111-93 road win over the Knicks, while the Pacers enter off a 112-89 road loss at Golden State on Thursday. Denver has dominated this series of late, winning the last two, including a 102-100 victory in the first matchup on March 16th. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Overall Denver is 7-3 in its last ten, averaging 110.8 points in that span. The Pacers return home after an 0-4 Western road swing. Indiana is averaging 107.7 PPG, while allowing 104.2. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, while Indiana is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after playing on two days of rest. I think this is a bad matchup for Indiana and I look for the visitors to keep the good times rolling for at least one more night. Play on Denver. 10* play |
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03-23-19 | Celtics -3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 117-124 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Boston bounces back here after falling 118-115 in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Hornets look poised for a predictable letdown after their 113-106 home win over the Wolves. Boston has taken two of three in the season series thus far. The C’s average 112.7 PPG and they concede 107.7. Over its last ten games Boston is 6-4, averaging 116 points and allowing 113.4. The Hornets average 110.4 PPG and they concede 111.5. Charlotte is 4-6 in its last ten, scoring 106.5 PPG in that span. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while Charlotte is still just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win. Lay the points and expect a blowout. 10* play |
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03-20-19 | Rockets -4 v. Grizzlies | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: Houston destroyed the lowly Hawks 121-105 last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well as it looks to gain ground in the competitive West as the season winds down. Overall the Rockets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 109.9. The Grizzlies had a stretch of decency about a month ago, but they’ve predictably started to stumble again, coming into this one having lost two straight. Memphis averages a league-worst 102.1 PPG, while allowing 104.6. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back after scoring 120 or more points in a victory in the first, while Memphis is only 6-7 ATS this year when playing with triple revenge vs. an opponent (three straight losses in the series.) This is a bad matchup for Memphis. Houston will look to put the foot on the gas early here and try to go up big at half. This is a play on Houston in the first half. 9* play |
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03-18-19 | Warriors -2.5 v. Spurs | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors got blown out at home by the Celtics and since then they’ve won two straight over Houston and OKC. That setback to Boston was a wake up call for the defending champs and I think they carry that momentum over here as they look to send a third straight message to the top teams in the West. Golden State in fact destroyed the Thunder 110-88 on Saturday: “Everybody’s been locked in,” forward Draymond Green assured. “You see a different fire in the coaching staff, a different focus in their eyes. You see a different focus and fire in our players’ eyes, and that’s important. The training staff’s been locked in, like everybody’s been locked in since that loss. It comes at a good time for us, I think we got 13 or 14 games left, it’s the right time to start playing well and try to roll on into the playoffs feeling good.” No better team to go against than the Spurs, who have won eight straight games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when playing on one days rest, while the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. tams with a winning home record. Lay the short points and expect a blowout. 10* play |
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03-17-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a 123-114 home win over the Kings on Friday, while the Bucks posted a 113-98 road win at Miami the same night. Philadelphia plays with revenge here today after falling 123-108 here back on October 24th. The 76ers in fact have won three straight and they come in averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 111.5. The Bucks have won two straight and they average 117.6 points, while allowing 108.3. The pick: With Joel Embiid back in the mix, the 76ers are once again rolling. They play with the added incentive of revenge today and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 70-51 ATS in its last 121 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 100 points or more in, while Milwaukee is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 10* play |
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03-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs -2 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off games just last night. The Blazers pulled away for a 122-110 win at New Orleans and I think they’ll have a difficult time mustering up the same energy levels here in this difficult road venue. The Spurs barely broke a sweat though in their 109-83 home win over the Knicks and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 at home and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 teams with winning percentage over .600, while Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back and only 3-9 ATS In its last 12 games played in San Antonio. Lay the points. 10* play |
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03-15-19 | Bulls +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 121-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago has lost three straight, including a setback at home to the Lakers most recently. Robin Lopez was a standout with 20 points, seven boards and three assists in a losing cause. Zach Lavine didn’t play in that game, but he’s probable here. The Bulls have been competitive over the last month though and for a ten game stretch recently were the highest scoring team in the league. The Clippers’ five-game win streak was snapped with a loss to the Blazers last time out and I think they’re susceptible for another letdown here as well facing their lowly non-conference opponent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is already 7-3 ATS this year off a home loss by ten points or more, while LA is already 0-3 ATS this season off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-12-19 | Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blazers broke a two-game slide by knocking off the red hot Suns in their last game, while the Clippers come in off a highly satisfying victory at home over the Celtics just last night. LA has now won five straight, but at this time of year, playing the second game of a back-to-back is significant. And I think it’s going to be the difference maker here, as I look for the slightly more rested Blazers to have more energy. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while LA is just 2-6 ATS this season as a home dog and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. I look for Blazers to take advantage. Lay the points. 10* play |
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03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Suns had been competitive over the last month, but they couldn’t continue that momentum in a 127-117 loss in Portland just last night. The Warriors have had some issues since the All Star game (like getting blown out at home to the Celtics recently), but it still comes in having won three of its last four. That included a blowout victory at home over the Nuggets most recently. But with mighty defending champs expected to rest starters tonight, I think the door is wide open for the young visiting side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this season after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games, while Golden State is just 12-19 ATS as a home favorite this year. Too many points. Grab them. 9* play |
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03-10-19 | Rockets v. Mavs +8 | 94-93 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Rockets, who come in having won seven straight, get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. The Mavericks though come in hungry as they look to break a four-game slide. Houston has been playing at an elite level for a while now and knocked off some big teams in the process (Warriors at Oracle to start the seven game streak and 76ers at home most recently.) All good things must come to an end though and while I’m not calling for the outright, I think the visitors do come in a bit complacent here. Dallas has been competitive and I expect it to go down fighting. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is a poor 6-13 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Dallas is 11-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points. 9* play |
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03-10-19 | Bulls v. Pistons -8 | 108-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Pistons posted a come from behind 112-104 road win in Chicago on Friday and I expect them to lay the hammer down here as well in the second game of the home-and-home set. Detroit simply dominates this series, having taken all three meetings so far. The Bulls’ little surge from a month ago is now in the rear view mirror after losing three of their last four. The Bulls average 104.9 PPG and they concede 112.4. Detroit averages 107.8 PPG and it allows 107.8 as well. The pick: Note though that the Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last six at home and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. teams with a losing SU record, while Chicago is a poor 0-5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Detroit has the foot on the gas. It was in 11th sot in the East a month ago, but it’s now in sixth. Clearly the Pistons are “firing on all cylinders” right now. Lay the points. 9* play |
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03-09-19 | Hornets +12.5 v. Bucks | Top | 114-131 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets come in off a tougher than expected 1-point win over the Wizards at home just last night. The victory broke a three-game slide. Clearly it’s not going to get any easier facing the dangerous Bucks, who broke a two-game skid with a blowout win over a tired Pacers team last time out. The Hornets have struggled for the most part this season, but they won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Bucks on the other hand appear to be scuffling late and I think they’ll get caught looking past their lowly opponent in a small way tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the same points range. This spread is too large in my opinion. Grab the points. 10* play |
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03-06-19 | 76ers -5 v. Bulls | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia enters off a confidence building win over Orlando just last night and I think it’ll keep the foot on the gas here as well in this favorable matchup. Chicago has shown some promise for the future over the last month, but it comes in off back-to-back losses to the Pacers and Hawks. I think these teams are now firmly moving in opposite directions. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back on the road as a favorite in the -3 to -7 points range. Lay the points and expect a rout. 10* play |
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03-04-19 | Clippers v. Lakers -4 | Top | 113-105 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers are 35-29 and the Lakers are 30-33. The Clippers are looking at the playoffs right now, while the Lakers are on the outside looking in. LeBron James and company come off a horrible loss to the lowly Suns and they’re going to be out for redemption as they try to redeem themselves for the LA faithful. The Clippers average 113.9 PPG and they allow 113.7. The Lakers come in having lost four of five since the All Star game. The Lakers average 112.4 PPG and they allow 113.9. The pick: It’s now or never for the tenth placed Lakers. Another division loss here and it could be too deep a hole for even The King to climb out of this time. I expect the “home side” to play with extreme desperation. Take it for what you will as well but the Clippers are just 7-10 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while the Lakers are 9-3 ATS vs. the division. Lay the points. 10* play |
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03-02-19 | Thunder +3 v. Spurs | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I think the Thunder “come to play” tonight. A date vs. the “on again, off again” Spurs is just what the doctor ordered. San Antonio did break a three-game losing skid with a win at home over Detroit last time out, but if it’s shown anything this year, it’s been inconsistency in form from one game to the next. Despite not having the services of Paul George, I think that Russell Westbrook and company can take advantage. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog, while SA is just 9-13 ATS off a home victory this year. This one has upset written all over it. 10* play |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the hottest teams in the league collide North of the Border Friday night and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. Sure the Blazers are going to stumble at some point, but Portland has easily destroyed all of its Eastern competition since coming out of the All Star break. The Blazers come to Toronto on a five game win streak after easily dispatching the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday. Toronto bounced back from a loss to the Magic to beat Boston as well. But Portland won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note that the Blazers had lost five straight in this series before a convincing 128-122 home win on December 14th in the lone meeting so far this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-28-19 | Jazz v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah comes in off a come from behind 111-105 win over the Clippers just last night and I think it’ll have difficulty mustering up enough energy to contend with the Nuggets in the thin Denver air. So far these clubs have split a pair of meetings, but the home side actually plays with revenge after dropping the last one 114-108 in Utah on January 23rd. The Jazz are 5-5 SU in the second game of back-to-backs this year, but fatigue is definitely a major factor in my opinion at this point of the season. From a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while Utah is a terrible 4-11 ATS in its last 15 when playing the second game of a back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* play |
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02-27-19 | Pelicans v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: LA comes in as the “hungrier” team here. The Lakers have lost two straight and they’ll be desperate to start stringing some wins together to get back into the playoff picture. New Orleans comes in off a home loss to Philadelphia and I think it’ll struggle to match pace with this focused Lakers team. Note as well that the Lakers just lost in New Orleans last week when the Pelicans had star player Anthony Davis on the sidelines. This is an immediate revenge scenario for The King and I’m expecting him to step up and deliver the goods. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog of six points or less, while LA is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss against an opponent that scored 110 points or more. The table is set for a rout. Lay the points. 9* play |
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02-27-19 | Pacers v. Mavs +1 | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think the Pacers get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent here. After winning two straight the Pacers were dumped by a desperate Pistons team last time out. The Mavericks don’t have that same luxury though, as they’ve lost five straight, most recently to the Clippers on Monday. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 13-16 ATS on the road this year, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points. 8* play |
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02-26-19 | Celtics +4 v. Raptors | 95-118 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Boston is in desperation mode here after losing four of its last six. The Celtics come in averaging 112.8 PPG and allowing 106.8. Toronto has won eight of its last ten. The Raptors average 114.1 points per game and they allow 108.9. These teams are evenly matched, but I think Boston is the much more motivated/hungry side The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Toronto is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest. These teams are evenly matched. I’m grabbing the points. 9* play |
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02-25-19 | 76ers +1 v. Pelicans | Top | 111-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans rallied for an impressive win over LBJ and the Lakers without star player Anthony Davis in the line-up, but I think the team will have a hard time mustering up the same energy vs. their non-conference opponent today. The 76ers’ four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. the Blazers at home and while they’ll be without their big man Joel Embiid tonight, they won’t be lacking for motivation. The 76ers average 115.3 PPG and they allow 112.3. The Pelicans on the other hand average 115.7 PPG and they allow 115. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a home favorite, while New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. This one has upset written all over it. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-24-19 | Spurs v. Knicks +8.5 | Top | 118-130 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs come in dejected, still thinking about their 120-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday. The Knicks enter off a 115-104 loss to Minnesota on Friday night. San Antonio continues to struggle away from friendly confines though during its annual “Rodeo road trip,” now just 1-5 after the setback in Canada. The margin for error is slim most nights for the Spurs, who average 112.4 PPG and who allow 111.5. The pick: The Knicks are in full rebuild mode, but they feature some talent and I think this is a great overall “spot” for this new look side to be competitive. Note that San Antonio is just 14-16 ATS on the road, while New York is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a non-conference games. I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | Top | 130-115 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories to open the second half, but I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Portland posted the 113-99 road win in Brooklyn, while Philly held on for a 106-102 home win over Miami. The 76ers though play with revenge this afternoon after they lost 129-95 at Portland on December 30th. The Blazers average 113.3 PPG and they allow 110.1. The 76ers average 115.7 PPG and they allow 1112. The pick: Note though that Philadelphia is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the visitors are still just 11-15 ATS on the road this year. I think the home side pulls away down the stretch for the convincing victory. Lay the short points. 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 147-148 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder dropped their final game before the All Star break to the Pelicans, but previous to that they’d won four in a row. The Jazz lost to the Warriors in their final game before the break. Utah’s achilles heel this year has been its play on the road and I think that trend of futility comes back to haunt it again here vs. the rested and focused Thunder side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Utah is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for Westbrook, George and the home side to all send an early message with a resounding effort. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Wizards v. Hornets -5 | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Neither team has lived up to expectations this year. Injuries and other issues have led to a 24-34 record for the Wizards and a 27-30 record for the Hornets. Washington lost 129-120 on the road in Toronto most recently, while the Hornets fell 127-89 on the road to Orlando in their final game before the All Star break. The Wizards look impotent though, going into the break with two straight losses and five in seven. Washington averages 113.9 PPG and it allows 116.9. The Hornets won’t be lacking for motivation here though either after dropping two in a row and four of five. But the Hornets still hold the seventh spot in the East and I think that the extra time off couldn’t have come at a better time. Charlotte averages 110.8 PPG and it allows 111.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is just 8-21 ATS on the road this year, while Charlotte is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 at home. Look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points. 8* play |
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02-21-19 | Celtics +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Jayson Tatum of the Cetlics predicted that his team would win the Championship this year over the All Star break. Whether or not that bold prediction comes true will come with time, but I do think that the C’s can keep this one competitive, if not even take it outright. Boston scored the 118-110 home win over Detroit in its final game before the break, while Milwaukee earned the 106-97 road win over Indiana in its latest action. These teams have been competitive this year, having split two games thus far. Boston averages 113 PPG and it allows 106.6. The Bucks average 116.9 PPG and they allow 107.1. The pick: With Kyrie Irving expected to suit up tonight, the Celtics become even more dangerous in the first game back from the break. Note that the Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while the Bucks are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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02-17-19 | Team LeBron v. Team Giannis +6 | 178-164 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is more an “event” than a game. Clearly you have to be careful wagering on these types of events, as for the most part, this contest means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things and it’s going to come down to whichever of the two sides is the more “motivated” in the end. In my opinion, that’s the team Giannis. The pick: I think there are far too many “egos” on LeBron James’ team. James, Anthony Davis, James Harden and Kevin Durant all on the same team looks good on paper, but I doubt the chemistry. The East has harder working players that would I believe can work better together in this event. Throw in the fact that Steph Curry will be wanting to put a dagger in The Kings plans tonight, then I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset. That said however, I’ll still recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 6* play |
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02-14-19 | Thunder -3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder will look to close the first half with another big win before then concentrating on the All Star game. The Pelicans are in complete free fall mode after their star Anthony Davis announced that he won’t re-sign with the team at the end of the year. The Pelicans have lost five of six and they’re firmly out of the playoff hunt on the season. Davis has only three points in his last game and it would appear as if he and his team have “thrown in the towel.” Russell Westbrook and Paul George though are breaking NBA records almost every other night. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that to continue here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 14-5 ATS already this year off a home victory, while New Orleans is only 13-14 ATS at home. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-13-19 | Heat v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 112-101 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is struggling right now and I think it’s ripe for the picking. The Heat have fallen into ninth spot in the East with a 25-30 record. Most recently Miami lost for a sixth time in seven games in its 103-87 setback in Denver. Overall Miami averages 105.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. However over its last ten games Miami has posted just 103.3 points per game over its last ten. The Mavericks are looking to bounce back from a 120-104 loss to Houston. The Mavs average 108.4 PPG and they allow 108.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is already only 4-9 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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02-12-19 | Magic v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 118-88 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Anthony Davis won’t be playing for the Pelicans next year and while he’s also going to be playing limited minutes, he’ll still be a “man on a mission” as he looks to cement his resume before moving on. The Pelicans will be hungry here after their 99-90 loss on the road in Memphis. The Magic on the other hand look poised for a classic letdown in my opinion after their 124-108 road in Atlanta in their most recent action. The Magic average 105.2 PPG and they allow 107.5. The Pelicans average 115.8 PPG and they allow 114.6. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Orlando is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Western Conference, while New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS setback. Lay the points. 10* play |
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02-10-19 | Suns +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns are looking to bounce back after a 117-107 home loss to the Warriors. The Kings look poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after their 102-96 home win over Miami on Friday. These teams have played twice already this year, and they’ve split those games, with the Suns taking the latest 115-111 at home on January 8th. Phoenix is absolutely desperate here to break its slide after 13 straight losses and while I’m not going to predict a SU victory here, I do think that the desperate visiting side can keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is already 3-1 ATS this year after ten or more consecutive losses, while Sacramento is just 4-7 ATS vs. the division and just 1-2 ATS after playing four straight home games. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. 10* play |
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02-07-19 | Spurs v. Blazers -5 | 118-127 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Spurs have lost back-to-back road games, most recently falling in Golden State. The Blazers won’t be taking anything for granted here though after losing to Miami at home last time out. The Spurs were without DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge and they’d go on to fall 141-102. Both players could/should see time here, but I still think that the Spurs will stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers fell flat after three straight victories last time out, but Portland is poised for a bounce back here in my opinion as it’s consistently played much better at home than on the road. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but The Blazers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. the Western Conference. In my professional opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points. 8* play |
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02-06-19 | Hornets v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my picks on many things. This one is based almost entirely on “common sense.” The Hornets come in off an exhausting and heart-breaking 117-115 loss at home to the Clippers just last night and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here as well. The Mavs on the other hand have won two of their last three after easily dispatching the Cavaliers 111-98 on Saturday. Dallas took the first meeting between the clubs 122-84 on the road in the first matchup between the teams this year and I expect a similar final blowout here as well. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Dallas is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 at home, while Charlotte is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. teams with winning home records. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* DALLAS. |
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02-05-19 | Pistons v. Knicks +4 | 105-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is based entirely around the fact that Detroit played and won big at home just last night over the Nuggets. The Pistons were desperate for a victory, but after that emotional come from behind win, I think a predictable letdown is inevitable in the second game of the back to back facing an equally as hungry/desperate Knicks side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 14-22 ATS in its last 36 when playing on back-to-back days, while New York is 20-13 ATS this year trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. |
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02-05-19 | Celtics v. Cavs +12.5 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the stage is set for a competitive battle in this one in my opinion. The Cavaliers are making trade moves, but they’ll be eager to get off the schneid and try to pull off an outright victory at home after suffering a 111-98 loss at home to the Mavericks on Saturday. Not surprisingly this is a double revenge game for the Cavs after dropping both in the season series this year, including a 123-103 road setback in Boston on January 23rd. Note though that the C’s will be without the services of star offensive player Kyrie Irving in this one. The pick: Additionally note that Boston is just 9-15-1 ATS on the road this year. Cleveland on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two days of rest. Grab the points, expect a war. |
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02-05-19 | Lakers v. Pacers +3.5 | 94-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: LA comes to town off a 115-101 road loss to Golden State. The Pacers are in action last night in New Orleans and after pulling off the 109-107 victory, I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. The Pacers certainly won’t be lacking for motivation facing former team-mate Lance Stephenson. The Pacers are very familiar with “The King” as well of course. But LA is going through inner turmoil of its own. The Lakers are trying to pull off a blockbuster trade with the Pelicans for Anthony Davis and have offered half the team in return. The players had an altercation with head coach Luke Walton in the loss to the Warriors and one has to wonder where the Lakers’ heads are at collectively in this one? Despite having played just last night, I think this one sets up great for an outright home side victory. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 5-6 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Indiana is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog of three points or less and 6-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days. Grab the points. |
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02-02-19 | Nuggets v. Wolves +1 | Top | 107-106 | Push | 0 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for Minnesota after it fell 103-101 in Denver back in November. The Nuggets though come in “dog tired” in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, pulling away for a big 136-122 home win over Houston on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” It’s a perfect set of situational factors working in favor of the Wolves tonight. The pick: It also sets up nicely for the Wolves from a trend based stand point, as note that Denver is just 5-8 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Minnesota is 5-3 ATS as a home underdog. I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas has been a lot better on the road than at home this year and it had lost four of six previous to last night’s big win in The Big Apple. Can anyone say letdown spot? Detroit on the other hand has lost back-to-back games, including to these very Mavs just last week. From a situational stand point, this one is definitely being handed to the home side on a “silver platter” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after three consecutive non-conference games and just 1-2 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Detroit is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* play |
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01-29-19 | Pelicans +10 v. Rockets | Top | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans have to adjust to the idea that Anthony Davis will soon be leaving the team. He won’t be suiting up here. It’s going to be all hands on deck though as New Orleans tries to gain an identity moving forward. In this contest anyways, I think the Pelicans rally and at the very least, keep this one competitive against a Rockets team which I predict will get caught looking past its lowly opponent. The Pelicans’ have lost three straight, but Jrue Holiday looked decent after posting 29 points, seven boards and three assists in the losing effort. He’ll be leaned upon heavily moving forward. The Rockets continue to win, but it was anything but easy in their latest 103-98 victory over the lowly Magic at home. I think James Harden and company are starting to run out of gas and there’s no question in my mind that this one actually sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. The-pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 8-4 ATS this year trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 3-4 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* COACH’S CLINIC PELICANS |
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01-28-19 | Nets +10 v. Celtics | Top | 104-112 | Win | 107 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Am I calling for an outright upset? I’m not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive war than what this spread would suggest. Boston comes in off a loss to the red hot Warriors and now face one of the league’s other white hot teams in the Nets, who come to town on a six-game win streak, including a victory over the Knicks on Friday. The Celtics didn’t manage a win over the Warriors and I think a letdown here is imminent after that “close call.” From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great for the visitors in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Brooklyn is already 9-5 ATS this year off a home win and 5-1 ATS off a win vs. a division rival, while Boston is just 18-25 ATS in its last 43 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the end. 10* play |
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01-25-19 | Heat v. Cavs +8.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: Miami enters off a 111-99 home loss to the Clippers on Wednesday, while Cleveland returns home off a 123-103 road loss in Boston on Wednesday. Both teams are struggling this season, but the Cavaliers play with the added incentive of “double revenge,” having dropped both previous meetings with the Heat, including a 117-92 setback in Miami in the most recent at the start of the year. Clearly the Heat are the better team, but the Cavs won’t be rolling over here as they look to break their own string of futility (lost 17 of 18.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is just 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. I’m grabbing the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Knicks +10 v. Nets | 99-109 | Push | 0 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think the home side comes in a tiny bit complacent here and I look for the under-manned, but hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive down the stretch. The Knicks were competitive in a 114-110 loss at home to Houston on Wednesday, a game which saw James Harden drop 61 points on them. The Nets come in off a satisfying 114-110 home win over Orlando on Wednesday. Brooklyn has taken two of three between the clubs this year, so the revenge factor comes into play here as well. The pick: Note that the Knicks are 9-4 ATS this year after a non-conference game, while Brooklyn is still just 14-15 ATS in its last 29 as a home favorite. I think the conditions are correct for a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 8* |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic -4 | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Wizards have been playing a lot better of late, even without star John Wall, but they come into his one off a home loss to Golden State just last night. I have a hard time seeing the Wizards “getting up” for this one. The Magic will look to take advantage. These teams have already split two games this year, with each winning on its own floor. The Magic won 117-108 in their home victory and I believe we’ll see a similar final score discrepancy here as well. From a situational stand point I do indeed feel this one sets up fantastically for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Orlando is a solid 4-1-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Washington is just 17-36 ATS in its last 53 on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 8* |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans +12 v. Thunder | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog tonight. The Pelicans come in “under the radar” in my opinion. The Thunder enter off a 123-114 home win over the Blazers, but with two nights off before a game at home vs. the Bucks on Sunday night, I expect the home side to get caught looking past its opponent tonight. And who could fault the Thunder in doing so? They’re playing at home and facing a team playing without its superstar (Pelicans’ center Anthony Davis is out) and coming off a game just last night. The pick: New Orleans though can put points on the board with the best of them. Note that the Pelicans average 117.1 PPG, while the Thunder average 114. Take it for what you will as well but the Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS this year as a home fav in the 6.5 to 12 points range. A great “situational” play on the Pelicans. 10* play |
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01-23-19 | Hornets v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of hungry non-conference teams collide on Wednesday night and I don’t think that the “home court advantage” can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Memphis comes in as the “hungrier” team here as it looks to snap a six-game losing streak. The Hornets look poised for a letdown though in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Charlotte averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Grizzlies averages only 100.6 PPG, while allowing 103.9. The pick: Take it for what you will though but memphis 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Charlotte is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on two days rest. I like Memphis to finally get off the schneid in this favorable home matchup. 10* play |
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01-21-19 | Rockets +5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-121 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? Clearly it’s not out of the question. I’m expecting a battle though obviously and am going to grab the points in the end. The Rockets come in off a 138-134 OT win over LA on Saturday, while Philly lost 117-115 to OKC in its most recent action. Houston is 6-4 overall in its last ten and it averages 112.6 PPG and it allows 110.5. But after their three-game win streak was snapped in dramatic fashion last time out, I think the 76ers are ripe for another letdown here. Overall Philadelphia averages 115.4 PPG and it allows 112.2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the 76ers are a poor 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the Southwest division, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a war. 10* play |
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01-19-19 | Mavs v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off losses. I think home court will prove to be the difference maker for the hungry Pacers though. Dallas lost 105-101 at home to the Spurs on Wednesday most recently, while Indiana lost 120-96 at home to Philadelphia on Thursday. While they haven’t played yet this year, the Mavs have won three straight in the series, including a 109-103 victory in the latest back on Feb. 26th, 2018. The Mavs though have dropped five of their last seven and overall they’re just 11-11 ATS on the road. Dallas averages 109.8 PPG and it allows 109.7. Indiana is 11-10 ATS at home. Overall the Pacers average 108.7 PPG though, while allowing just 103.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Indiana is a solid 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 10* PACERS |
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01-14-19 | Blazers +2 v. Kings | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blazers come in off a 116-113 loss in Denver last night. I think the Blazers though regroup quickly and get back to their winning ways in this favorable matchup on Monday night. Note that despite the loss to the red hot Nuggets, Portland still won the turnover and rebounding battle, while shooting a very respectable 45.5 percent from the floor overall. The Kings come in off a satisfying win over the Hornets in their last outing, but I think they’ll struggle in this conference match-up. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have been simply terrible in this spot for bettors, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. the Western Conference. Look for Portland’s depth to prove to be too much for the Kings to keep up to down the stretch. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder -4 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: San Antonio took the first game of this home and home set 154-147 in double OT on Thursday. Clearly its payback time for the Thunder on their own floor. LeMarcus Aldridge exploded for a career-high 56 points, nine boards, four assists and four blocks to lead San Antonio’s victory, but clearly I’m not expecting a repeat performance here. The Spurs are just 9-11 on the road this year. Russell Westbrook had 24 points, 13 boards and 24 assists in the setback on Thursday for the Thunder. OKC is 10-9 ATS at home this year, but the immediate revenge factor swings the scales in favor of the home side in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS in their last six after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, while OKC is already 5-1 ATS this year in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Lay the points. 10* DEMOLITION |
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01-11-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -8 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James got injured the Lakers would go on to predictably lost three straight. LA has looked better of late after winning two in a row, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in the cards. Kyle Kuzma had a career-high 41 points the Lakers latest home win over Detroit. LA is averaging 112.2 PPG, while allowing 110.8. I think Kuzma though will struggle to duplicate his best performance ever as a pro, especially in this difficult road venue vs. the Jazz, who have “upped” their game on the defensive end of the floor of late, allowing just 100.7 PPG over their last four. Utah comes in on top form having won three of its last four and I look for it take advantage of this favorable matchup. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing road records, while LA is just 2-6-1 ATS In its last nine following a SU win and only 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following an ATS victory. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* DEMOLITION |
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01-07-19 | Spurs -3 v. Pistons | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: These teams have been moving in opposite directions of late overall and I think that trend carries over here. SA comes in having won four straight and eight of its last ten. Overall the Spurs are averaging 111.7 PPG and they’re allowing 108.6. The Pistons are averaging 107.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.4. As mentioned off the top, Detroit has been scuffling of late and it now sits three games under .500. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pistons are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. the East. Lay the points. 8* play |
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01-05-19 | Hornets +9.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets are only 7-8 ATS on the road this year, but they’re 9-6 SU. Charlotte enters off an embarrassing 122-84 home loss to the Mavericks in its latest action and it’ll be out to atone for that pathetic effort. And a date vs. the Nuggets is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as the Hornets have won four of the last five in this series, including a 113-107 home victory in the first matchup this year back on December 7th. The Hornets average 112.9 PPG and they allow 111.4. Denver averages 110.3 PPG and it allows 105.1. The pick: But this is a matchup which Charlotte has excelled in and after its recent poor effort, I expect it to give a full four-quarter effort tonight. Additionally note that the Hornets are already 12-4 ATS this year after having lost two of their last three games. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-04-19 | Jazz v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 117-91 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz are the “better” team, but the Cavs are the “hungrier” team tonight. Utah enters off a 122-116 road loss in Toronto on Tuesday, while Cleveland comes in off a blowout loss at home to the Heat. Utah’s achilles heel forever has been its play on the road and that’s been no different this season either, going just 9-12-1 ATS away from friendly confines thus far. Overall the Jazz average 107.7 PPG and they allow 106.1. The Cavs average 102 PPG and they allow 111.4. Cleveland has lost seven straight though and clearly it’ll be risking life and limb to try and reverse that trend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is already just 3-5 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games, while Cleveland is 8-5 ATS this season following a SU home loss. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-31-18 | Hawks +12 v. Pacers | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta has been playing well of late, most recently it defeated the Hawks 111-108 on Saturday. Indiana enters off a very satisfying 125-88 home win over the Pistons and I think it’ll get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. This is a big time revenge game as well, as Indiana has taken seven straight in the series, including both this year and last week’s 129-121 Boxing Day victory. But Atlanta is now playing its best ball of the year, having won five of its last six. Indiana has won four straight, but note that it’s still a terrible 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win by ten points or more vs. a division rival. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 7-5 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab all those points! 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Rockets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets were upset at home last night by the Mavs and I think they’ll be ripe for the picking here as well. The Rockets comes in off three straight victories, including over the Celtics most recently. Houston plays with revenge here as well after the Pelicans took the first game in the season series 131-112 in mid October. The pick: New Orleans is also just 1-5 already in the second game of the back-to-back scenario this season. Note that the Pelicans are allowing a whopping 124.2 points per game in the second game of the back to back this year. This one is going to be a blowout. Play on Houston. 10* play |
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12-28-18 | Hawks +9.5 v. Wolves | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: No outright victory, but I think this one will be a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. I think the Wolves, who have won two straight, get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight. After winning three straight, the Hawks are looking to bounce back after a loss in Indiana in their latest outing. Kent Bazemore was a standout in the setback with 32 points. The Wolves are playing great under the guidance of Derrick Rose, but note that they’ve been consistently inconsistent in this spot by going just 1-4 ATS this year after a blowout win of 15 points or more. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 8-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on Atlanta. 8* play |
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12-27-18 | 76ers +5 v. Jazz | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah has won three of four, while Philadelphia saw a two-game win steak end in a OT loss at Boston on X-Mas Day. Philadelphia looks to bounce back here in this difficult venue: “I look forward to watching us evolve,” 76ers’ head coach Brett Brown assessed last night. “We will learn from this. We leave disappointed, but I think there’s lots you’re going to point to and say it was a hell of a job, and we lost to a team that’s very tough…. The fact that the starting five for the large majority of the game was excellent. I though the spirit was great, the energy was great, but we need to continue to grow our bench, and to work with our starters to finish out the game.” Maintaining focus for the Jazz vs. the Eastern Conference opponent is a concern though in my opinion. The pick: Because take it for what you will, but the Jazz are still a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a victory, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle. 10* play |
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12-26-18 | Hornets v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Simply put, I don’t think that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Nets once again come in under the radar here after winning eight of their last nine. The Hornets look poised for another letdown here after their two-game win streak was broke in a 119-103 loss in Boston last time out. Overall the Hornets average 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 108.2 per 100 possessions. The Nets average 109.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 110.2 per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will thought, but Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Brooklyn is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 following a SU loss of ten or more points. Kemba Walker is doing a hell of a job to keep the Hornets relevant, but I think he’ll stumble in this now difficult road venue. Play on the Nets. 10* play |
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12-26-18 | Wizards +5 v. Pistons | 95-106 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Both teams have struggled this year (Washington is just 13-21 and Detroit only 15-16.) The Wizards come in desperate for a victory after dropping five of their last seven. The Pistons can empathize with their counterparts today as they’ve gone just 3-9 in December. Most recently Detroit fell 98-95 at home to the lowly Hawks. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Washington is already 3-1 ATS this year after failing to cover the spread in four straight games, while Detroit is just 3-7 ATS this season as a home favorite. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points. 8* play |
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12-25-18 | Bucks -10 v. Knicks | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down on this one early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I think the high-powered Bucks are going to lay the hammer down from start to finish. The Bucks comes in off a 94-87 road loss in Miami, a setback which snapped a four-game win streak. Overall Milwaukee averages 116.9 PPG and it allows 108.5. The Knicks come in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost four straight, most recently a listless setback at home to the Hawks. The Knicks average 108.6 PPG and they allow 115.9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 0-5 ATS in its last five at home, while Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Pelicans -1 v. Kings | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a 112-104 road loss to the Lakers on Friday. The Kings enter off a very satisfying 102-99 home win over the Grizzlies and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. New Orleans has dominated this series of late, including a 149-129 home victory in the first meeting this year on October 19th. Overall the Pelicans average 116.3 PPG and they allow 115.2. Sacramento is averaging 114.9 PPG and it’s allowing 116.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of six points or less. I’m banking on the Pelicans dominance of this series continuing. Play on New Orleans. 10* play |
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12-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings -2 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies are in a “free fall” right now and I think the hungry home side takes advantage. The Grizz have lost four straight and six of their last seven. The Kings enter off back-to-back losses as well, over the Wolves and Thunder, so they won’t be lacking any motivation here either. Memphis has been dealing with injury issues again to guard Mike Conley, as well as to forward Omri Casspi. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Western Conference, while the Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on one days rest and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the Kings. 10* |
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12-19-18 | Warriors -3 v. Jazz | 103-108 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Stephen Curry returned about two weeks ago and after a shaky stretch, the Warriors have now won six of their last seven. The Jazz are trending in the opposite direction now, having gone just 1-4 in their last five. Speaking of Curry, he’s having an awesome year despite missing a month of action. Curry and Kevin Durant combined for 69 points in a 124-123 win at Utah back on October 19th. Utah comes in ice cold offensively, having not reach the 100-point plateau in back-to-back games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Utah is just 3-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 8* play |
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12-19-18 | Spurs +1 v. Magic | Top | 129-90 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs have gotten back on track of late, most recently destroying the 76ers 123-96 at home on Monday. The Magic return home after knocking off the Jazz 96-89 in Mexico City on Saturday. Note though that this is a big time “in-season” revenge game for SA after the Magic upset them at home 117-110 back on November 4th. SA averages 110.6 PPG and it concedes 110.5. Orlando averages only 104 PPG, while allowing 106.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SA is already 6-1 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Orlando is only 14-26 ATS in its last 40 off an upset win as an underdog. Play on the Spurs. 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I think LBJ and company will bounce back after a 128-110 road loss in the nation’s capital on Sunday. The Nets on the other hand look ready for a letdown in my estimation after their big 144-127 win over the Hawks on Sunday. The 144 points posted was impressive, but they 127 conceded to the ATL is unacceptable and won’t lead to success over the long-term obviously. LA averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.6. The Nets may have won four in a row, but they’re average 111 PPG and allowing 111.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Brooklyn is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 10* play |
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12-17-18 | Blazers +2.5 v. Clippers | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry visiting side. Portland broke a two-game slide with a 128-122 home win over Toronto and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. The Clippers’ red hot start is starting to fade quickly in the rear view mirror as they come in having lost three straight. And after this LA has the surging Mavericks and defending champ Warriors up next. Can anyone say classic “trap game?” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games after scoring 125 points or more in a win at home in its previous outing, while LA is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more SU losses. Grab the points. 8* play |
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12-17-18 | Bulls +13 v. Thunder | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Thunder are the better team and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise. I simply feel that the high-powered home side will get caught classically looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this evening. The Bulls come in with confidence as well after a big 98-93 road win in San Antonio on Saturday. The Thunder on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their 110-104 home win over the Clippers. Chicago will also be playing with confidence that it has in fact already beaten OKC this year, 114-112 at home back on December 7. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up as more of a competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while OKC is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-15-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for an outright upset victory for the hungry Clippers. Oklahoma City looks ripe for the picking here after its 109-98 loss in Denver just last night. The Clippers are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.6 per 100 possessions. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories, but the unit looked “gassed” last night and I think it’ll struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in revenging a loss vs. an opponent in which it scored 110 or more points in, while the Thunder are still only 40-47 ATS in their last 87 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-12-18 | Hawks +9 v. Mavs | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Mavs are the better team, but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum as well, as they broke a four-game slide with a 106-98 win over the Nuggets on Saturday. John Collins had 30 points and 12 boards in the win. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 5-2 ATS this year after playing two straight at home and 4-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge an in-season loss to an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-10-18 | Kings v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Sacramento was a bad team last year and clearly it’s made big strides this season though. The Kings are 13-12, while the once mighty Bulls are just 6-21. Chicago has dealt with injury issues before the season even started though, so expectations going in were low. The Bulls have been getting healthier and they’ve looked better of late and I think they’ll catch this young Kings’ team flat-footed as they finish off their lengthy Eastern swing. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the hungry home side. The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Sacramento is already just 2-4 ATS this season after covering three of its last four against the spread, while Chicago is already 8-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-09-18 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans have dominated this series of late and I think that’ll again be the case here (won three straight in the series, including a 118-103 road win in Detroit last Feb.) While the Pelicans are just 5-8 ATS on the road, they’re a solid 7-6 SU overall. The Pelicans average 118.1 PPG and they allow 115.9. Detroit’s lost three straight and it’s just 6-8 ATS at home this year. The Pistons average 109.4 PPG and they allow 109.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 40-31 ATS in its last 71 after having lost two of its last three games SU, while Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a very satisfying 129-110 win over the Cavs just last night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back to back on the road. The Pacers also played and won last night (112-90 in Orlando), but clearly home court advantage in the second game of the back-to-back scenario favors Indiana greatly this evening. Note as well that Indiana plays with revenge after falling 111-110 in the first match-up of the season just last week. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is still only 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of the last seven ATS, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five after falling to cover four or five of the last six ATS. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-07-18 | Thunder v. Bulls +9 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder are 16-7 overall, while the Bulls are just 5-20. I think the hungry home side though will catch the Thunder complacent and flat footed Thunder team which comes in off an epic come from behind 114-112 win over Brooklyn in their latest action, a game which saw Paul George explode for 47 points and a game winning three-pointer. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Bulls are terrible, but they’ll be eager to break a seven-game slide, most recently falling 96-90 to Indiana. Lauri Markkanen played will in his second game with 21 points and ten boards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine asa road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog in the same points range. I think OKC finally has a letdown here and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, this one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points. Bulls GOM. |
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12-05-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up. The Clippers posted a 129-126 win over New Orleans on Monday, while the Grizzlies will be the “hungrier” team here after falling 103-95 in Philadelphia in their latest action. Note that this is a revenge game as well after the Clippers posted the 112-107 OT him win earlier in the year. LA is primed for a letdown here at the end of its tough four game road trip. Memphis on the other hand comes in focused and desperate after losing four of its last five. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 3-5 ATS already this season as a road dog of six points or less, while Memphis is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Play on the Grizzlies. 10* |
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12-04-18 | Kings v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 122-105 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kings are 11-11 and the Suns are 4-19. The Kings enter off a satisfying 111-110 home win over Indiana and I think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Suns won’t be lacking any motivation obviously after the terrible start to the year, most recently a 120-96 setback at the Lakers on Sunday. Phoenix took three of four in this series last year and I think it’ll keep it competitive here as well. The Kings average 114.3 PPG and they allow 117.1. The Suns average 103 PPG and they allow 113.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a close home win by three points or less, while Phoenix is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 after falling to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played last night, meaning that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Clippers come in off a loss to Dallas and they look ripe for the picking. The Pelicans enter off a 119-110 win in Charlotte and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are already just 2-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less, while New Orleans is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite and interestingly 3-1 ATS vs. the Pacific division. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-01-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors come in off a 131-128 road loss in Toronto, a setback which saw star Kevin Durant score 51 points. Golden State has been struggling without Stephen Curry in the line-up, but the proficient point guard makes his triumphant return to the Association this evening and I believe he’ll make all the difference. The Pistons present the perfect opponent to get back on track against and test themselves as Detroit comes in having won four straight. Level of competition though has to be taken into account during the Pistons recent mini-run, most recently a victory over the lowly Bulls. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG and it allows 111.5. Detroit averages 111.8 PPG and it allows 110.7. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim for the Pistons most nights. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous outing, while Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference home games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. “The Chef” returns and the defending champs return to form. Lay the points. 10* |
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11-30-18 | Jazz +2 v. Hornets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah enters off a 101-91 road win over Brooklyn on Wednesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Charlotte took down Atlanta 108-94 at home on Wednesday. These teams split a pair of games last year. The Jazz average 105.3 PPG and they allow 108.1. Big man Rudy Gobert averages 15.3 points, 12.5 boards and 1.95 blocks per game.) The Hornets are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re allowing 110. Kemba Walker leads the way with 27.4 pints and 6.3 assists per game. The pick: It’s interesting to note though that Utah is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. the Southeast Division, while Charlotte is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. With Donovan Mitchell back in the line-up, the Jazz are an entirely different team. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers come in off back-to-back road wins and they’ll be playing without Victor Oladipo, their main offensive weapon. The Lakers have lost two straight after a five-game win skein, including a humbling defeat in Denver last time out. I think the Pacers go through the motions today and I believe “The King” will lay the hammer down from start to finish in this favorable matchup. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference home games on the heels of a two games or more SU/ATS losing streak. Lay the points. |
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11-28-18 | Suns +12 v. Clippers | 99-115 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: Phoenix is 4-15 and the Clippers are 13-6. LA is at the top of the division, while the Suns are wallowing in the basement. Phoenix has talent and while it’s struggled from range this season, I think it offers great value as an underdog here. LA has won back-to-back games over the Blazers and Grizz and comes in complacent. The Suns have lost back-to-back games after beating the Bucks at home and they enter hungry. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix is 6-3 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records, while LA is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing on two day rest. Grab the points. |
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11-27-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 85-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers are a team led by the best basketball talent on Earth, but which is still trying to find its identity on most nights. That’s understandable, as chemistry takes time to develop. Regardless, LA will be out to atone for a 108-104 home loss to Orlando on Sunday. The Nuggets on the other hand return home off a successful road trip and a 105-98 win at OKC on Saturday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” LA averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 points and it allows 103.2. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LA is already 4-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while Denver is just 4-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and a poor 7-13 ATS in its last 20 after three or more SU wins. Grab the points, expect a “nail biter!” |
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11-26-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 131-135 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston will be eager to return to form here after a 117-108 road loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Washington on the other hand looks poised for a letdown in my opinion after a 124-114 win over New Orleans on Saturday. But the Rockets have in fact lost two in a row on the road. Overall the Rockets are averaging 106.9 PPG and they’re allowing 107.9. The Wizards are averaging 112.2 PPG and allowing 117.2. The pick: Previous to their upset win over the Hornets, the struggling Wizards had lost three straight. Note that they’re just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU victory. Lay the points. |
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11-24-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +10.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played yesterday. The Cavs enter off a confidence building 121-112 win over Philadelphia, while Houston lost 116-111 in Detroit. This the end of a tough Eastern swing for Houston and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well. Houston is only averaging 106.6 PPG, while the defense is allowing 105.7. The Cavs are averaging 103.4 PPG and they’re allowing 111.9. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back after winning the first by seven or more points. No outright, but expect a competitive battle. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies are 11-5 and the Spurs are 8-8. The Spurs enter motivated after a loss to the Pelicans, while the Grizz look poised for a letdown after four straight victories. San Antonio has now lost five in a row on the road, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for SA to get back on track in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Grizzlies are still a horrible 10-27 ATS in their last 37 following a divisional contest and just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 after three or more consecutive victories, while San Antonio is already 4-1 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. Look for the Spurs to bound back and for the Grizzlies to finally have a letdown in this difficult arena. Lay the points. |
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11-20-18 | Nets v. Heat -3 | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off a 127-119 home loss to the Clippers on Saturday and I think the undermanned Nets will struggle against a Heat team out to atone for a 113-97 loss to LBJ and the Lakers. Brooklyn is averaging 109.9 PPG, but it’s allowing 111.3. Miami is averaging 109.3 PPG and it’s allowing 110.6. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Nets are already just 4-5 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more, while the Heat are 18-10 ATS in their last 28 following a loss by ten points or more. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-16-18 | Blazers -1.5 v. Wolves | 96-112 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Blazers come in off a 126-117 road loss to the Lakers. Portland’s dropped two in a row and it’ll be eager to duplicate it’s 111-81 win over the Wolves back on November 4th. Minnesota looks primed for a letdown here as well after its 107-100 home win over New Orleans in my opinion as well. Portland comes in averaging 115.9 PPG and allowing 107.6. Minnesota averages 110.9 PPG and it allows 116.2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning SU record, while Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-14-18 | Jazz -4 v. Mavs | 68-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Utah got out to a slow start, but it’s back on track and I think it carries that momentum over here as well. The Jazz come in off three straight wins over Dallas, Boston and Memphis, while the Mavericks are 3-1 in their last four after besting the lowly Bulls on Monday. Dallas got 11 points from Luka Donic against the Bulls: “Sometimes, he’s gonna have bad games,” veteran point guard J.J. Barea admitted. “He’s still young, and he can’t be great every game. So we’ve got to help him out.” Utah’s already beaten the Mavs twice this season. This is simply a horrible matchup for the Mavericks and now they face a Utah team that’s firing on all cylinders. The pick: Note that the Jazz have averaged 115 points over the first two meetings. Note as well that the Mavs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home vs. teams with winning road records. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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11-11-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Lakers are the better team, but they have a tough game in Sacramento on Saturday night and I think its the opportunity that the desperate Hawks will need to at least keep this one competitive. The Hawks are just 3-9 overall and 1-5 on the road, but with upcoming games at Golden State, Denver and Indiana on the horizon, tonight’s contest against a tired Lakers team clearly takes on added importance. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. Grab the points. |
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11-10-18 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | 89-96 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back losses and it looks primed for a letdown with a tough Western trip starting on Monday in my opinion. Houston will look to take advantage and to get back on track after a listless effort in OKC last time out, snapping a three-game slide. But with a tough game tomorrow night at home against the Pacers, James Harden and company aren’t going to want to leave anything to chance here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU/ATS road loss and playing another road game right after. Play on the Rockets. |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: LA enters off a satisfying 120-109 home win over the wolves on Monday and I think it’ll now predictably stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers continue to roll at home most recently getting the better of the Bucks 118-103 on Tuesday. The Clippers are averaging 116.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.8. Portland is averaging 117.3 PPG an fit’s allowing only 107.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points and expect a rout! |
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11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Denver enters off a 115-107 home win over Boston on Monday, having to play from behind most of the game and then pulling away down the stretch for the another win and cover. The Nuggets have been the biggest surprise in the early going, but I think they’re going to run out of gas here against a Grizzlies team which may only be 5-4 overall, but which is a perfect 3-0 at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after three or more consecutive victories, while Memphis is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 after plaint three consecutive road games. Grab the points. |
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11-03-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit comes in off a disheartening 120-119 road loss in Brooklyn, while Philadelphia posted a 122-113 home victory over LA in its most recent action. Note that this is a big time revenge game for Philly after it fell 133-132 in OT in Detroit earlier in the year. The teams: This is the finale of a three game trip for the Pistons. Overall Detroit has already lost two of three on the road. The Pistons are averaging 109.9 PPG and allowing 110.5. Philadelphia is averaging 113.8 PPG and allowing 113.4. Joel Embiid had 41 points with 16 boards in the win over the Clippers. Note that the 76ers are now 5-0 on their home floor this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Philadelphia is 63-44 ATS the last two season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The 76ers’ revenge the earlier loss and continue their home dominance with another convincing victory. |
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11-02-18 | Wolves v. Warriors -11 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wolves come in off an epic 128-125 win over the Jazz, a game in which Derrick Rose scored 50 points. Can anyone say letdown spot? Rose isn’t going to score 50 again for the rest of his career and I think the Warriors will look to take advantage of this tired visiting side. The Warriors are firing on all cylinders right now as well, as guard Stephen Curry is averaging a career-high 33 points, 5.9 assists and 5.0 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Minnesota is just 8-20 in its last 28 on the road and interestingly only 3-7 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |