10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. 

By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. 

Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama

10* Iowa State (4:00 ET): Oregon is a team that should feel pretty fortunate to even be in the Fiesta Bowl as they only got to play for the Pac 12 Championship because Washington had to back out due to COVID-19 concerns. Making the most of their opportunity, the Ducks upset unbeaten USC in that penultimate game, 31-24 as a three-point underdog. However, don’t let that one win fool you. Oregon was very much a shaky team in the regular season and I successfully faded them twice - their two SU losses (to Oregon State and Cal). They were not all that impressive in their first three wins either.

A win here for Iowa State would not only be an “exclamation point” on the job Matt Campbell has done in Ames, but also perhaps the program’s most notable bowl win EVER. So I don’t think motivation is going to be a problem for the Cyclones, who are coming off a tight 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where they were -3 in turnover margin, but outgained the favored Sooners. Iowa State is simply much better than any team Oregon has faced this year as the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 12, at least at the top. I’ve got four Big 12 teams, ISU being one, rated above every Pac 12 team in my personal power ratings. 

Oregon has had success as an underdog in the bowls previous to this, but Iowa State is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017 and 4-1 ATS its last five games as a favorite. Plus, I think the Cyclones are going to be the hungrier side come Saturday and I’m not talking Tostitos (old sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl). Major edge at QB for ISU with Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall should gash an Oregon defense that allowed a ton of rush yards when it faced Oregon State RB Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks may be without their top RB (Vardell), which would not be good facing the #10 ranked run defense in the country. 10* Iowa State

8* Ole Miss (12:30 ET): Some of the same trends I discussed for Auburn-Northwestern apply here. Whether or not Auburn covers (this is being written on New Year’s Day), I will follow the trends here for Ole Miss-Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. So I’m taking the points with the Rebels. 

Indiana went 7-0 ATS in the regular season, the best such mark in the entire country. But they haven’t played a game since December 5th and will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. In two games without Penix, the IU offense has managed just 115 and 130 yards passing. I can’t say that Ole Miss has a stout defense, but not facing Penix is a break. There’s a lot of talk about the Hoosiers having a “chip on their shoulder” here as they felt they should have been selected for the Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve also lost their last five bowl games, not having won one since 1991.

Ole Miss has its starting QB Matt Corral, who threw for nearly 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns in the regular season. Corral won’t have his two top WRs here, but he didn’t have them in the regular season finale vs. LSU either and the Rebels still scored 48 points. This was the SEC’s third best scoring offense (40.7 PPG) and they led the conference in rushing (217.7 YPG). Indiana saw only one good offense this year, Ohio State, and gave up 42 points in that game. The Rebels faced a much harder schedule and will be motivated here for their first bowl since 2016 and first under Lane Kiffin. 8* Ole Miss

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Coming into this College Football season, it seemed as if three teams stood above the rest: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Those names shouldn’t be too surprising seeing as those three schools have combined to win five of the six College Football Playoffs (LSU last year was the only exception). Sure enough all three schools are back in the CFP this year and #3 Ohio State will play #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of last year’s semi final, which took place in the Orange Bowl.

You’re likely to hear a LOT about LY’s Orange Bowl in the build to this game. I know I remember it as the Buckeyes were my 10* Bowl Game of the Year and raced out to a 16-0 lead in less than 25 minutes. But they ended up losing 29-23 and not covering as 2.5-point underdogs, thus dropping to 0-4 SU all-time vs. Clemson, two of those losses coming in CFP semis. For this year’s rematch, it seems as if Ohio State is really being “written off.” I don’t understand that as this remains a supremely talented team and revenge is obviously a major factor. 

The Buckeyes didn’t exactly face a tough regular schedule this year, but they still won all six games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. They were dealing with massive attrition from COVID-19 (22 players out) in the Big 10 Championship Game when they “only” beat Northwestern 22-10. HC Ryan Day has said he expects “a good number” of those players who sat out the Big 10 Champ Game to play here. Meanwhile, Clemson just announced it will be without OC Tony Elliott (COVID) for this game. Elliott is the play-caller. Look, I’m not going to say that the Tigers shouldn’t be favored here. But the line should not be more than a field goal. Take the points. 8* Ohio State

10* Auburn (1:00 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Yes, I’m aware that Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Championship Game (where they led Ohio St at the half) while Auburn had a 4-loss regular season. But both were 6-win teams and you simply can’t discount the Big 10 vs. SEC factor here. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. The SEC is 7-1 SU L8 Citrus Bowls. I’m taking the points on New Year’s Day.

N’western is 7-1 ATS this season, which is the 2nd best cover percentage in the nation (trailing only Indiana & San Jose St, both of whom didn’t have a single ATS loss). But this will mark just the third time in 15 bowl games that the Wildcats will be favored (they are 4-10 SU all-time in bowls). That one ATS loss this season came in an outright loss to Michigan State, who was not a good team. The majority of wins were both close and fortunate. The Wildcats were outgained on a per play in the regular season, so they were extremely fortunate to go 6-2 SU. They won three games in which they were outgained. In two of those three wins, they were outgained by 100+ yards!

Auburn should be thrilled to get away from the SEC gauntlet as they are 6-1 ATS their L7 non-conference games. Of course, the biggest news here is that Gus Mahlzan was shockingly fired after the regular season and replaced with former Boise St HC Bryan Harsin. DC Kevin Steele will be the interim coach for the bowl game. Steele’s defense should have a strong game here against an anemic N’western offense that averages less than 300 YPG away from home. Three of Auburn’s four losses this year were to Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia, all top 10 teams. I still consider the Tigers a top 25 team. They don’t turn the ball over (only 8 all season!) and that’s key vs. a N’western D that forced almost 2.0 TOs per game. 10* Auburn

8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. 

Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. 

Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia

10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here.

San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role.

Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State

10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. 

I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. 

Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma

10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. 

Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. 

Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas

10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. 

I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. 

So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall

8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record.

Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes.

This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points!

Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” 

 You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane

8* Florida (8:00 ET): Fading Florida proved quite fruitful for me last week as the Gators went out and lost outright (as 23.5-point favorites) to LSU. Blame the ill-timed throwing of the shoe all you want, but it was not a great all-around effort by Dan Mullen’s team and the loss definitely took some of the “shine” off the SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama. But that’s precisely how I like it! Now, no one is giving Florida a chance, despite the fact they are the #7 ranked team in the country and their two losses this year have been by a combined six points. While I don’t anticipate another outright win here, I am definitely taking the points. 

Now we ought to give Alabama their due. The top-ranked Crimson Tide mowed their way through the regular season, winning all 10 games by an average of almost 33 PPG. Lost in the middle of the pandemic is the fact this team is probably one of Nick Saban’s most dominant EVER at Tuscaloosa. But this is a LOT of points to be laying when you’re facing a good team and everybody expects you to win. Florida has been an underdog only one other time this season and it was when they annihilated Georgia (on a neutral field) 44-28. The Gators have put up at least 31 points in every game this season. 

Furthermore, Florida is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off an SEC loss under Mullen. I mentioned a similar trend for LSU under Ed Orgeron last week. Look, there’s probably nothing I can say to convince you that the Gators have a chance of winning this game. But they certainly can keep it close. Other than Texas A&M, who they faced early in the season and at home, Bama played a fairly weak SEC schedule. After so many covers in a row (7-0 ATS L7), isn’t at least one close game in store? Both of Bama’s non-covers came away from home this year. They haven’t faced Florida since the 2016 SEC Title Game and Heisman frontrunner Kyle Trask is good enough to keep this one within striking distance. 8* Florida

9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one.

Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. 

 What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame

10* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): It was back on October 10th that I wrote the following: “The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward.” It was time to fade the Bulldogs that day and sure enough they lost 24-2 to Kentucky. It’s been all downhill since in Starkville with the only victory coming against perennial SEC pasty Vanderbilt (who has fired its HC). Mike Leach’s first season is guaranteed to be a losing one (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS entering Saturday), but I would caution about writing them off Saturday at home vs. Missouri. 

Missouri was actually ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings last week, which I found to be quite curious. The Tigers barely crack my own Top 50 and sure enough they went out and got whipped 49-14 by Georgia last week. Now that’s a good team Mizzou was up against, but that’s precisely the point. The Tigers’ “best” win this season was probably LSU, same as Mississippi State. They have more wins than the Bulldogs, but (like Miss St) the only dominant one was against Vandy. Three have been by seven points or less. 

Mississippi State has had all sorts of problems on offense this year, but facing a Mizzou defense that has given up 35 or more points six times this season might be “what the doctor ordered.” The last two weeks have seen the Tigers give up a total of 97 points! Up front, the Mizzou defense has been decimated by injuries.While they did win the only other time they were road favorites, that was against a South Carolina team (17-10) playing for a lame duck head coach. This is the first time in four games that the Tigers are playing away from home. They’ve yet to score more than 17 in any of their three previous road games. 10* Mississippi State

8* Washington State (1:30 ET): In any other College Football season, a matchup like this would likely go a long way in determining bowl assignments. But as you know, 2020 has been no normal year. There seems to be no shortage of “breaking news” these days in this sport, and on Friday, Utah announced that they would not be accepting any bowl bids. Washington State has already indicated the same thing. Thus, this will likely be the last time we see either of these teams this year. Utah laying double digits in a game where they may not be all that motivated seems highly questionable. I’ll take the points. 

Utah started out 0-2, but actually played pretty well in losing efforts vs. USC and Washington. They blew a 21-point lead against the latter. Turning the ball over a total of nine times in those two games also played a large role in losing. So I’m not surprised to see that the Utes have turned things around some with B2B wins, against Oregon State and Colorado. But they did get to face OSU w/o its star RB and starting QB. That seems like a pretty big advantage, yet the Utes won by only six in a game they returned a punt for a touchdown. Last week at Colorado, they trailed by 11 in the first half before turning it on after halftime for a 38-21 win and cover. 

Washington State has only gotten to take the field a total of three times this season. Last week’s game vs. Stanford was called off 90 minutes before kickoff. So the Cougars’ only game in the last month was an ugly 38-13 loss at USC, which was actually played on a Sunday. QB Jayden de Laura, who looked very sharp in the team’s first two games, did not play well against USC. I expect him to bounce back here. He’s completed 60% of his passes and the Wazzu rushing attack could be a lot better if Max Borghi is able to finally suit up. His replacement (Deon McIntosh) hasn’t been too shabby either, averaging 6.5 YPC vs. USC. 8* Washington State

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Texas A&M certainly has a lot at stake here. Currently #5 in the CFP rankings, the Aggies are first in line to move up if any of the top four stumble. If #2 Notre Dame were to defeat #3 Clemson later on Saturday, then the Tigers would almost certainly fall from the top four (would be their 2nd loss to ND). So the world is going to be on A&M here in Knoxville with the belief that “style points” matter. They really don’t though and a “dirty little secret” is that the Aggies have just ONE win by more than 13 points all season and that was against a South Carolina team that was eight days away from firing its HC. 

Two weeks ago, Tennessee gave me a nice win here at home vs. Florida, sliding right in through the backdoor. Though they were pretty thoroughly outplayed that day, the Volunteers hung in there with one of the better teams in the country. That coupled with last week’s 42-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt (snapped a six-game losing streak) MAY be enough to save HC Jeremy Pruitt’s job, but that’s far from certain. Pruitt definitely cannot afford a blowout loss here in the home finale. The “good news” is that the Vols’ last three losses have all come by 13 points or fewer. 

I know that A&M is perfect as a road favorite (5-0 ATS) under HC Jimbo Fisher and they’ve got something to play for here. But the number is definitely inflated and I’m taking the points. The Aggies have failed to cover all three times they’ve been double digit chalk this season and are a horrific 1-15 ATS off a bye (last week’s game vs. Ole Miss was cancelled). The Aggies’ offense has failed to impress me at times this season and the Tennessee defense has played a lot better of late, especially against the run as they’re giving up only 1.5 YPC the L2 weeks. 8* Tennessee

8* Ball State (7:30 ET): Buffalo put the finishing touches on a perfect 5-0 regular season last Saturday with a 56-7 thrashing of Akron. The Bulls had already been declared MAC East Champs prior to that game, so it’s pretty impressive that they were able to go out and still dominate by such an overwhelming margin. Of course, it helps when you’re facing Akron. That’s kind of my view on Buffalo as a whole in 2020. Their resume looks really impressive, but when you consider they’ve faced Northern Illinois, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Kent St and Akron, 5-0 comes across more as “yeah, that BETTER be their WL record.” 

Ball State has played one more game than Buffalo, but also brings a 5-game win streak into Friday’s MAC Championship Game. The Cardinals lost the season opener to Miami OH (blew a DD lead in the 2H), but has been perfect ever since. While four of those wins were by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog like they are here. Ball State’s regular season schedule was much tougher than Buffalo’s as the last three weeks have seen the Cardinals defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan, two of those games coming on the road. 

The MAC Title Game, as per usual, is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The conventional wisdom here seems to be that Buffalo is - by far - the best team in the MAC. But when 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I’m not willing to co-sign that. Though Ball State will play without RB Caleb Huntley (opted out), they are more than capable of making a game of this. They have covered six straight as an underdog and I believe Buffalo is overvalued due to getting some national coverage for a 70-point game against Kent State a few weeks ago. Ball State is better than any team Buffalo has faced this season. 8* Ball State

10* UAB (7:00 ET): Though this is the Conference USA Championship Game, it’s hardly a great “spot” for favored Marshall. Two week ago, the “bubble burst” in the Thundering Herd’s unbeaten season and it happened in one of the unlikeliest of ways, a 20-0 home loss to Rice. Ending up as the top “Group of 5” team is no longer in play, so motivation may be an issue here even though it's a Conference Championship Game. UAB is in its third straight C-USA Title Game (won ‘18, lost ‘19) and is arguably the better team here. Take the points. 

 You’ve got two strong defenses here and on what’s going to be a chilly night in Huntington, points are likely to be at a premium. That makes the underdog all the more attractive in this scenario. Remember that Rice was without its starting QB when it upset Marshall. Of course, offense was the bigger issue for the Thundering Herd that day as they were shutout on the scoreboard and turned the ball over five times. It’s notable that a week later UAB beat Rice 21-16.

UAB comes in at 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. While they’ve been poor at the betting window, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is that they played a number of games with a backup QB. Starter Tyler Johnston III is now back. Also, two of the Blazers’ three losses this season were by four points or less. The other was at Miami FL in a Thursday night game early in the season. Since then, the defense has allowed more than 24 points in just one game and that came in an OT loss where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Not sure home field advantage means much in 2020 and then you’ve got the fact Marshall is just 6-13 ATS its L19 home games. 10* UAB

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): It certainly hasn’t been a good year for UNLV. In fact, last week’s game vs. Boise State was probably for the best as the Rebels were quite likely to take a beating in that one. This is a team that’s already 0-5 SU (0-4-1 ATS) with every loss coming by at least 13 points. Because of that, you know that they’re going to be getting a ton of points every Saturday. This week though, it’s too many as the opponent just isn’t deserving of this price range. Take the points. 

Two weeks ago, I took Hawaii. It was here at home, but they were GETTING points. The opponent was Nevada, undefeated at the time, and the Warriors ended up pulling off a 24-21 outright win (were +7.5). Unfortunately, they were unable to sustain that momentum last week against San Jose State. That despite being dealt a major advantage in that the game was moved from San Jose to Honolulu (COVID). Hawaii lost 35-24 to fall to 3-4 SU on the year. They’ve been favored only twice in 2020 and failed to cover both times. One time they lost outright (at Wyoming). The other, they could only beat a winless New Mexico team by six here on the Island. 

Hawaii’s three wins this season have been by a total of 24 points. So you can see why I’d be so skeptical of laying so many points with them here. UNLV doesn’t want to finish the season winless (who would?), thus I expect a solid effort out of the underdog. The Rebels can control this game in the trenches as Hawaii is not particularly strong on either side along the offensive or defensive lines. At the very least, a Hawaii defense allowing more than 6.0 yards per play will keep the backdoor open. 8* UNLV

9* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Last year’s “Commonwealth Cup” was a rather sizable play for me. It was the day after Thanksgiving and my 10* College Football Game of the Year. I took Virginia, who had lost the previous 15 meetings, as a 2.5-point underdog. They won outright 39-30 thanks to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback (outscored Va Tech 19-3). Coming into this year, the two rivals are in much different form. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak and 5-0 ATS L5. Va Tech is on a 4-game losing streak while also going 0-4 ATS. 

For the first time in a LONG time, it “feels” like Virginia should be favored coming into this game. But it’s telling that they are not. Obviously, some of that has to do with the fact that the game is in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers have not won here since 1998 when they were ranked #16 in the country. Also, the entirety of UVA’s 4-game win streak has come in Charlottesville. One win was against a FCS foe. Last week they did beat Boston College for the 1st time ever, but the Eagles were without starting QB Phil Jurkovic and RB David Bailey. Despite this, the Hoos’ defense still allowed 32 points and 500+ yards. 

Almost all of those 500+ yards allowed came through the air. In fact, BC finished with -7 rush yards for the game after factoring in sack yardage. But Virginia Tech’s offense is #1 in the ACC in rushing yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 7.6 yards per carry. Hokies HC Justin Fuente may very be coaching for his job Saturday night. Three of the Hokies’ six losses this year have been by a TD or less. They actually played Clemson pretty tough (for a half) last week despite losing the turnover battle and QB Hooker (he’s fine now). Virginia has not won a road game all year. Don’t be fooled by the records, Va Tech is better. 9* Virginia Tech

10* LSU (7:00 ET): LSU is once again “making history” in 2020, only unlike last season it’s a rather DUBIOUS history. Last week saw them close as a 28.5-point underdog at home vs. Alabama. That was the largest spread ever for a defending National Champion and the Tigers promptly got blown out 55-17. This week vs. Florida makes them the first team EVER to begin a season ranked in the Top 10 and end up being a 20+ point underdog in two separate games. Needless to say, it’s been a fairly ugly “fall from grace” for HC Ed Orgeron, who rode Joe Burrow to a National Championship 11 months ago. 

While I didn’t want to jump in front of the Alabama train last weekend, I do think this spread is far too high. My own power ratings say it should be closer to a 2 TD spread. That’s a lot of value. I successfully faded Florida last Saturday as I thought they were far too big of a favorite in Knoxville. While they did outgain Tennessee pretty substantially, it ended up being a 31-19 final due to a competitive first half and late Volunteers’ touchdown. This will be the 2nd largest Florida-LSU spread ever and largest since 1994 when Florida didn’t cover. 

By beating Tennessee last weekend, Florida has clinched a spot in next week’s SEC Championship Game where they’ll get their crack at top ranked Alabama. So this is a classic lookahead spot for the Gators. Obviously, the lookahead line for this game was a lot lower, not just at the start of the season, but even just a few weeks ago. This number is a product of recency bias and I just can’t see LSU getting blown out again. They’ve got too much talent and Orgeron is still on a 6-1 SU run after an SEC loss, not to mention 6-3 ATS as a dog despite last week’s result. Take the points. 10* LSU

9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in  conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? 

Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. 

Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming

8* Troy (3:00 ET): It’s not hyperbole to say last week’s 22-17 win over BYU was the biggest achievement in the history of Coastal Carolina football. The Chanticleers are now 10-0 SU and heading to the Sun Belt Championship Game (next week vs. Louisiana), not to mention maybe some place bigger if they win the next two games. That they were able to beat BYU, as a 10-pt underdog, on such short notice deserves a tip of the cap. But what about this week’s game? It sure feels like a “sandwich spot” and that’s dangerous when laying double digits on the road to a decent team. 

Troy is just 5-5 SU on the year and a money-burning 2-8 ATS. But they are off perhaps their most complete effort of the season, a 29-0 shutout of South Alabama where the defense allowed just 239 total yards. Back in the season opener, I took the Trojans when they rolled to a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. In my analysis, I stated I expected this team to improve from last season when it finished just 5-7 SU (three straight 10+ win seasons before that). That hasn’t really materialized, but there’s been some extenuating circumstances. QB Watson has missed time with a rib injury, COVID has interrupted the schedule and there have been three losses by seven points or less.

I just think it is going to be very hard for Coastal Carolina to prevail here by double digits. In addition to the letdown/lookahead nature of the spot, they were actually outgained by BYU last week, 405-366. They needed a tackle at the goal line to win the game. Remember that the Chanticleers were not just picked to finish behind Troy this season, but also LAST in the entire Sun Belt. With Watson back in the lineup last week, Troy more closely resembled the team I expected at the start of this season. This game was originally supposed to be played on November 14th. It being moved to this week is more of an advantage to the home dog. Take the points. 8* Troy

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): I fully understand that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers have fallen short of expectations this season. Furthermore, the team has been hit hard by COVID with 40+ players/staff testing positive and the last two games getting cancelled as a result. As if that wasn’t rough enough, WR Rashod Bateman - arguably the best player on the team - has decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. That all being said, I just feel the number this week at Nebraska is way too high.

Nebraska has looked a lot better the last two weeks, particularly in last Saturday’s 37-27 win at Purdue. The week before, I took them and it was a pretty easy cover as double digit underdogs against Iowa. But this week will mark just the second time all season that the Cornhuskers have been favored to win a game. The first was three weeks ago vs. Illinois and they promptly lost that game - outright - as 17-point chalk. Given the ‘Huskers’ two wins this season are by a combined 17 points, and they were outgained substantially in one of those wins, this is not a good candidate to lay double digits with. 

The last four meetings of these Big 10 West rivals has seen the home team go 4-0. The last three years have all been decided victories. But Minnesota rarely gets blown out under Fleck. One of their three losses this year came by a single point. They too beat Purdue three weeks ago and save for the Iowa game, the offense has been quite productive (40+ pts in both road games). Even without Bateman, I expect the Gophers to score a decent amount here. They are 4-1 ATS L5 as a road underdog while Nebraska is just 1-5 ATS its L6 as a favorite. 8* Minnesota

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Wake Forest boasts an impressive 6-1 ATS record and I’ve been fortunate to cash in on them multiple times. The first time was in a 37-13 LOSS to Clemson. As you probably ascertained, the line for that game (season opener) was quite high. The next time was “more like it” (especially if you’re from Winston-Salem) as the Demon Deacons pulled an outright upset over Virginia Tech, 23-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Then I took them again vs. North Carolina, which ended up as a 59-53 loss, but they still covered +12.5. 

That North Carolina game seems like FOREVER ago, so I was surprised when I saw it’s the last game Wake Forest has played. It was nearly one month ago to the date. It’s actually the only game they’ve played since October! Despite the long layoff, I expect the team to play well here. The offense, led by QB Sam Hartman, is averaging 39.3 PPG this season. They’ve scored 40 or more four times. They led North Carolina by 21 in the second half. The only other loss besides that and Clemson was by three points to an 8-win NC State team. The Deacons could very easily be on a 6-game SU win streak heading into this game. 

Louisville has also been victimized by some close losses this season. They are 3-7 SU, but four of those losses have been by 7 points or less. Still that didn’t stop HC Scott Satterfield from exploring an offer to take the South Carolina job, which angered fans and I’m sure his players. Unlike Wake Forest, who hosts Florida State next week, this is Louisville’s final game. They are likely not going bowling and may not be too excited to play for a coach that just thought about leaving the program. All three L’ville wins this season have been against pretty bad teams. Don’t see them winning here against what I feel is one of the more underrated teams in the country. 8* Wake Forest

10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. 

Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. 

While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech

8* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Gonna go ahead and fade Nevada in the late night spot again as the Wolf Pack showed last week they are not a good team to lay points with. They lost outright on “the Island” (Hawaii), 24-21, trailing for the entire second half. While it was their first loss of the season, three of Nevada’s five victories thus far have come in one possession games and they’ve hardly faced a daunting schedule. Despite the outright loss last week, my power ratings say the Wolf Pack remains overvalued. 

This will be Fresno State’s first game in three weeks. They come in as winners of three straight (also 3-0 ATS) as they’ve predictably bounced back a bit from LY’s disappointing 4-win campaign. (The previous two years saw the Bulldogs go 22-6 SU overall). Over the course of the current 3-game run, FSU has averaged 37.7 points and 486.7 yards. So them getting this many points seems like quite the ideal situation. They are on a 3-1 ATS run vs. Nevada and have won five of the last eight H2H meetings outright. 

Fresno has also played well on the road the last few years, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. They are 5-2 ATS the L7 times they’ve been an underdog, picking up three outright wins. These Mountain West rivals seem pretty evenly matched to me, so taking the points is a no brainer. Only two of Nevada’s games have been decided by more than two points and those were against UNLV and Utah State, who are a combined 1-10 SU. Something from last week’s analysis I’d like to reiterate is that Nevada’s third down conversion percentage and red zone efficiency are unlikely to be maintained. Fresno State’s defense does an excellent job at getting to the QB. 8* Fresno State

9* Baylor (8:00 ET): Since suffering B2B upset losses at the hands of Kansas State and Iowa State, #11 Oklahoma has really seized control of its destiny in the Big 12. The Sooners have rattled off five consecutive victories, averaging 50.2 PPG in the process. They’ve covered the spread in all five games as well. They were scheduled to go to Morgantown (West Virginia) last weekend, but that game had to be rescheduled for December 12th due to COVID. After such an impressive stretch, I’m not surprised to see OU a bit overvalued this week and don’t be surprised if they come out rusty after the unexpected week off. 

Baylor’s season has very much been the opposite of Oklahoma’s. They’ve won just one time since opening the season with a 47-14 win against lowly Kansas. But all five losses have been relatively close (by 11 pts or fewer) and the Bears did come from behind to down Kansas State last week, 32-31, as QB Charlie Brewer completed 80% of his pass attempts for 349 yards. Brewer also ran for 56 yards and was responsible for four touchdowns. One good sign for Baylor is that they’ve yet to lose the turnover battle in a single game this season and they’ve forced a total of eight turnovers in the L3 games. 

The Bears easily could have a better record than 2-5 SU as they’ve blown leads in three of their losses. That’s a far cry from last season when they were winning all the close games en route to an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game … vs. Oklahoma. They played OU tough in both meetings last year, losing by a total of just 10 points. Last week’s comeback should give them some much needed confidence and as good as Oklahoma has looked recently, they can’t keep performing at that level every Saturday. Baylor is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games and is 11-5-1 ATS L17 games as the underdog. 9* Baylor

10* California (7:00 ET): Oregon was a big-time fade (-13.5 @ Oregon State) on this end last week. Sure enough, they lost outright in Corvallis by a score of 41-38. I think the initial belief most bettors have when looking at a line like this is “the Ducks aren’t going to lose twice in a row.” But that can be a dangerous mindset to have, especially seeing just how shaky Oregon has been to this point. California, who is 0-3, comes in desperate here. Maybe they don’t follow in Oregon State’s “footsteps” and pull off the outright upset. But they’ll keep it close and at least cover the spread. Take the points. 

Cal isn’t as bad as its record. While they were blown out by UCLA (34-10) in the season opener, go ahead and write that result off as they played that one “impromptu” with a limited roster on a Sunday morning. Since then they’ve lost close to both Oregon State and Stanford, by a combined five points. They had the total yardage edge in both games and last week’s one-point loss to Stanford was BRUTAL as the Bears had the potential game-tying extra point BLOCKED in the final minute. This is a good number to be catching seeing as how Cal is 18-8 ATS as a dog (11 outright wins) under HC Justin Wilcox including 7-3 ATS when taking double digits (four outright wins). 

To all thinking “bounce back” (for Oregon) this week, a Ducks’ defense that gave up 532 yards to Oregon State should give you pause. In their last three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 35.0 points and 471.7 yards. In last year’s 17-7 win at Berkeley, the Ducks faced a Cal team that didn’t have starting QB Chase Garbers (injured). Garbers was 7-0 SU as the starter in 2019 and should have a “big game” here against the porous Oregon defense. Cal could easily be 2-1 SU right now while Oregon is lucky it isn’t 2-2 (as they were +4 in turnovers in a 38-35 win over UCLA two weeks ago). 10* California

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Tennessee comes into this game really “down in the dumps” as HC Jeremy Pruitt is firmly on the hot seat in Knoxville. An upset of #6 Florida would do wonders when it comes to saving Pruitt’s job. Not saying that’s going to happen Saturday, but taking the points is the way to go in this heated SEC rivalry where you can “throw records out the window.” If the Volunteers, losers of five in a row SU & ATS, can’t keep this one close at home and off a bye, then Pruitt is likely a “goner.” 

Since suffering its lone defeat of the season, 41-38 at Texas A&M, Florida has WON five in a row. So we’re looking at the complete opposite trajectory of Tennessee. However, with the exception of the big win over Georgia, the Gators have really been beating up on the dregs of the Southeastern Conference. The other four wins have been against: Kentucky, Vandy, Arkansas and Missouri. One more win gets the Gators into their first SEC Championship Game since 2016, likely against #1 Alabama. The thing is I don’t think HC Dan Mullen is looking for any “style points” at this juncture. He just wants the win. 

Tennessee led Auburn 10-0 two weeks ago, which was the last time we saw them. The game really swung on a 100-yard ‘pick-six’ thrown by Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. There is some speculation that Guarantano is one of the several Tennessee players in quarantine. Because of the two week layoff, many are still expected to play Saturday. Even if Guarantano doesn’t play, look out for freshman QB Harrison Bailey to possibly provide a spark. I know things aren’t looking good in Knoxville and it’s tough to make a case, but look for UT to keep this one closer than expected. Note: Florida has been favored by 17 or more just two times against Tennessee. Both were in Gainesville and they went 0-2 ATS, even losing one outright (2001). Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was clearly outclassed last week in a 42-13 loss to Alabama. But the good news (for them) is that the “Iron Bowl” comes but only once a year. Now they are faced with yet another Top 5 opponent this week in Texas A&M. But the Aggies looked thoroughly unimpressive in a 20-7 win over LSU last weekend in College Station. Even Auburn was able to beat “those Tigers” 48-11. Key here is this game is at Jordan-Hare, which means Auburn QB Bo Nix should play well (he usually does at home). I disagree with the line move as well and think we’re now getting a real solid value on the home dog. 

Auburn has a really strong home vs. road dichotomy this season as they are 4-0 SU here at Jordan-Hare (winning by an average of 17.0 PPG), but just 1-3 SU on the road. Going back to 2016, this will be just the 7th time that the Tigers are catching points at home. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS previously with four outright wins. Despite having lost three times this season, I still consider Auburn a Top 25 team in the country and my own power ratings have this game as a near pick ‘em. Despite being ranked #5 by the committee, Texas A&M is no Alabama (remember they lost to the Crimson Tide by 28 points themselves.

A&M has been just as inconsistent as Auburn this season and it's usually because of the offense. They only barely beat Vanderbilt in the season opener and then last week could only put up 20 on an LSU defense that had REALLY been struggling. Of the two touchdowns they scored, one was by the defense. So the offensive performance was even WORSE than you think as they put up less than 300 total yards and the lone TD scored came on a big 52-yard run. Off their last 10 SEC losses, Auburn is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, so history says they are going to play a lot better this week. Take the points. 8* Auburn

8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup.

About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points.

Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn

8* Kansas (12:00 ET): If you’ve been betting against Kansas this year, chances are you’ve done quite well for yourself. The Jayhawks currently check in with an 0-7-1 against the spread record and have yet to win a game straight up. The Over is 7-0-1 in their games as they’ve given up an average of 49.8 points. But a brief glimmer of hope appeared last week in the form of QB Miles Kendrick, who came in and completed 11 of 16 pass attempts for 166 yards and two touchdowns. We’d seen Kendrick previously this season, but that relief effort almost assuredly will earn him the starting gig for this Saturday’s game at Texas Tech. 

This is a dangerous number for Texas Tech to be laying this week. (Update: TT coach Matt Wells tested positive for COVID). Sure, Kansas isn’t good. But neither are the Red Raiders, who come in at 3-6 SU and ATS. They are off a narrow loss to Oklahoma State, 50-44, where they covered the 12.5-point spread due to a pair of late scores. While Kansas is universally recognized as the worst team in the Big 12, Texas Tech is definitely the second worst. Their three wins this season have come by a total of 10 points. One of them was against a FCS opponent (Houston Baptist) where they had to stop a 2-point conversion in the final minutes. This is the first time they’ve been favored since that game, which was the season opener. 

Thanks to Kendrick, KU matched its season high in scoring last week with 23 points (against TCU). This week they face a Red Raiders defense that just surrendered 50 points and 539 yards to an Oklahoma State team that was without its top two running backs. I predict the Jayhawks will achieve a new season-high in points this week as Texas Tech is giving up 39.3 points and 470.6 yards per game. As bad as Kansas has been in 2020, it seems improbable that they could go an entire season without covering a game. They allowed THREE non-offensive TDs last week, which won't happen again. Texas Tech doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody and remember they are the last team to lose to Kansas (37-34 last season). My power rankings say this number is off by a full TD. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Kansas

8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. 

Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. 

Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana

10* North Texas (6:00 ET): This has been a College Football season like none other before it and few things embody that assessment more than the fact Louisiana Tech did not play a single game in November! The Bulldogs last played Halloween night when they “treated” backers to a 37-34 upset of UAB (in overtime) as 12.5-point home underdogs. North Texas can certainly empathize with La Tech’s recent plight as the Mean Green also went a full month without playing a game before getting to take the field each of the last two weeks. But they are the team in better “game shape” heading into this one and I’ll follow the money (line move). 

I should note that my own power ratings actually disagree with the line move here. But I’m disregarding those rankings in this instance as they are obviously unaware of the long layoff for Louisiana Tech. Also, my power rankings have overestimated the Bulldogs before. I made the mistake of taking them in an October home game vs. UTEP, which they won by only 4 points despite being a two touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech has not outgained a single FBS opponent this season and had dropped four in a row ATS (1-3 SU) before the upset of UAB where they were outgained by 104 yards. The Bulldogs are bottom 20 in the country in total offense, which will be a welcome reprieve for a struggling North Texas defense. 

Believe it or not, but the Mean Green were considered a “sharp side” going into last Saturday’s tilt w/ UTSA, which they promptly lost 49-17 as 1-pt underdogs. Clearly taking sharp money again this week, they hope for a better result now that they’re back in Denton. Like North Texas, La Tech struggles defensively. The difference is they are going to have to contend with an offense that is top 5 in the country, averaging 536.9 YPG! The home team simply has a massive edge offensively in this one. You would not know that by watching North Texas’ last two games, but the last time I took them they put up 52 points and 768 total yards in a blowout win over Middle Tennessee. They are the right side here as LA Tech should not be favored on the road. 10* North Texas

8* Hawaii (11:00 ET): There are only eight teams in College Football currently 5-0 (straight up) or better. One of them is Nevada. Hats off to the Wolf Pack for this start and they are one of three Mountain West teams without a loss. But they really haven’t played anybody. Three of their five wins - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - are over teams in the bottom 10 of my personal power rankings (MWC has some BAD teams). They are also 3-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. This week is going to be their toughest test to date. 

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU thus far as they are coming off a home loss last week to Boise State. They did cover the 13-point spread against the Broncos, but the game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated. The Warriors trailed 33-9 in the third quarter, only to then get things going with the game out of reach. Still, that was just their second game on the island in 2020. Typically, Hawaii has a pretty strong home field edge (13-6 SU L19 home games) and Nevada certainly isn’t as strong as Boise State.

Nevada is just 6-13 ATS its L19 games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on the road. That includes eight outright losses. I think an outright upset is definitely ‘in play’ Saturday night considering the fact Hawaii won 54-3 in Reno last year! Thus far, the Hawaii offense has been a lot more potent at home than on the road. The defense leads the conference in interceptions. Nevada’s defense has had a really high success rate on third down, which very well may not continue. Take the points here. 8* Hawaii

9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. 

Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. 

TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas

10* Navy (7:00 ET): This has been a down year so far in Annapolis. Some of that was to be expected after the Midshipmen jumped back up to a 11-2 SU record last season (from 3-11 SU in 2018). Let’s also be honest in saying that COVID-19 has affected their “ranks” more than most teams. There were two horrible, early season losses to BYU (55-3) and Air Force (40-7). But other than those, they’ve played pretty well. They’re 3-2 SU otherwise. This will be their first game in four weeks due to the pandemic as they are off three straight cancellations. One of those three is being made up here w/ a Sat night visit from Memphis.

Memphis has also been affected by cancellations in a season where they too were expected to regress. The Tigers are 5-2 SU, which is still good, but consider this was a 12-2 team a season ago that won the American Conference. Their two losses, both on the road, were against SMU and Cincinnati. Since losing 49-10 at unbeaten Cincinnati, Memphis has escaped with a one-point victory over a bad USF team and beaten FCS Stephen F Austin 56-14. They were supposed to face Navy in between those two opponents, but again COVID-19 struck. The offense has been great so far, but you can’t say the same about the defense. 

Year in and year out, Navy usually has one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks. This year has been a little different as the triple-option wasn’t that effective early in the season. However, over the past four games the Middies have run for 251, 288, 166 and 191 yards. Memphis does not have a good run defense, even though the overall numbers say it isn’t that bad. But those numbers, specifically the rush defense, are skewed by LW’s game vs. a FCS team. UCF and Cincinnati were able to average 220+ RYPG.  The Tigers have not won a road game all season and are just 2-8 ATS L10 games. Navy is 12-4 ATS its L16 conference games. Take the points. 10* Navy

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Penn State and Michigan are a combined 1-9 ATS this season. Even more surprising is they are a combined 2-8 straight up! Both SU wins belong to Michigan, one of those coming last week in triple overtime against Rutgers. So this game has nowhere near the anticipation it normally does. Penn State is 0-5 SU and ATS, which is the worst start in program history (134 years and counting). As shocking as that is, the Nittany Lions are actually outgaining opponents on the season, which is something Michigan cannot claim. I remain less sold on the Wolverines despite them winning last week. 

Were it not for turnovers, we’d probably be talking about Penn State in a much different light. They outgained three of their first four opponents (Ohio State the exception), two of them by 200+ yards! They were only slightly outgained (19 yards) by Iowa last week in a 41-21 defeat, which was the second game in three weeks the Nittany Lions were -3 in turnover differential. I think it’s fair to say this is among the unluckiest teams in all of College Football. They should have at least a couple wins under their belt. 

The big story with Michigan is that they believe they’ve finally found their starting QB. It’s too little, too late to mean anything for 2020, but last week saw Cade McNamara come on in relief for the ineffective Joe Milton and lead the comeback win against Rutgers. But it’s a pretty sorry state of affairs in Ann Arbor when the faithful are celebrating a 3OT win over a team (Rutgers) that’s 1-25 SU its last 26 Big 10 games. The Wolverines were down double digits in the first half last week. Their secondary is just awful as three of the last four opponents have thrown for 323+ yards. 8* Penn State

10* Oregon State (7:30 ET): #15 Oregon heads to Corvallis with an undefeated record, but they were lucky to get by with a 38-35 win over UCLA last weekend. The Ducks got outgained but were the beneficiaries of four Bruins’ turnovers. Their defense definitely proved susceptible to run as it allowed 267 yards on the ground. They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry for the season. In case you didn’t know, Oregon State has one of the top RB’s in the Pac 12, if not the entire country, in Jermar Jefferson. Take the points here.

Jefferson had 196 yards on just 18 carries in last week’s 31-27 win over Cal. That was the Beavers’ first win of the season, but they did cover the 13-point spread the week prior at Washington, losing only 27-21. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in all three games so far and facing an Oregon defense that is giving up 188 rush yards per game, he should make it 4 for 4 this week. The Ducks have also surrendered a total of 64 points the last two weeks. OSU is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (2-0 this year).

They’ve won outright five times as a dog the last two seasons and they are also 9-3 ATS L12 Pac 12 games, which is second only to Utah in that same stretch. It’s also the 4th best ATS conference record in the country. Oregon is really going to struggle to stop Jefferson and the Oregon State offense here and thus it’s difficult to see them covering a double digit spread on the road. With this being a rivalry game, it’s not like the home team is going to be lacking for motivation. 10* Oregon State

8* North Carolina (3:30 ET): This boils down to the simple fact that North Carolina scores too many points to be catching this many at home. Two weeks ago, the Tar Heels hung 59 points and almost 750 total yards in a wild, come from behind win against underrated Wake Forest. You may recall I successfully faded UNC in that one, but I almost learned the “hard way” at just how explosive the offense is here in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives across the 3rd/4th quarters and almost covered.

The Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG for the season and have gone over 55 in each of the last two games. They have more pass plays of 40+ yards (12) than every other ACC team. They also lead the conference in yards per play (7.7). While they’ve stumbled twice as favorites this season (to Florida State and Virginia), both of those losses were by just three points. This game will mark the first time in 2020 that Mack Brown’s team is an underdog and it comes at home where they are undefeated and averaging 48.5 PPG.

Notre Dame’s defense has been super thus far as it leads the ACC in scoring. But they’ve yet to face an offense like North Carolina’s. Remember that they played Clemson w/o Trevor Lawrence and still gave up 40 points and almost 500 total yards. Other than that, it’s been Duke, USF, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Ga Tech and Boston College. North Carolina isn’t just 2-0 ATS as a home dog since HC Mack Brown returned, they are also 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams. The Fighting Irish have lost outright four of the last five times they’ve been road chalk of six points or less. Take the points. 8* North Carolina

8* Nebraska (1:00 ET): It’s certainly been an interesting season thus far in Lincoln where Nebraska lost LW to Illinois by a score of 41-23. They were 17-pt favorites in that game. The week prior saw them beat Penn State despite buying outgained by over 200 yards. The week before that they outgained Northwestern (who is still unbeaten), but lost by eight points as SEVEN trips to the red zone yielded only 13 points! Scott Frost is very much on the “hot seat” right now and cannot afford another loss to Iowa. Maybe he does lose again here, but I’m banking on the Cornhuskers covering the spread. Take the points. 

Iowa is back in the Top 25 (currently #24) thanks to a three-game SU/ATS win streak where they’ve averaged 41.7 PPG. But they weren’t really as dominant as you might think in last week’s 41-21 win at Penn State. It was only a 362-343 edge in total yardage. The Hawkeyes not only lost to the same N’western team that got Nebraska earlier in the year, but they also fell here in Iowa City to Purdue. No Iowa team has covered four straight regular season games since the 2004 version. This is a lot of points to be laying in a rivalry game.

Turnovers were a big key for both teams last week. Iowa scored 24 points off four Penn State TO’s while Nebraska coughed it up five times in its loss. Frost is being coy about his QB situation, but that works to our benefit as Iowa can’t be sure about what signal caller to prepare for. Nebraska has lost five straight years to Iowa, but the last two under Frost have both been three point games. I think we’re getting an inflated number here due to the respective results from last week. 8* Nebraska

8* Massachusetts (12:00 ET): UMass could very well be the worst team in all of College Football, but this is just a terrible spot for Liberty to be laying such an extraordinary amount of points. The Flames had their undefeated season extinguished last Saturday at NC State in a gut-wrenching 15-14 loss. QB Malik Willis threw three picks and was 13 of 32 passing. But though they lost straight up, Liberty did keep alive its ATS win streak (now at 6 games) as they were four-point underdogs. That 6-0 ATS run is probably why this number is still so high, but I’m taking the points.

Full disclosure - I’m not going to sell you that UMass is somehow “good.” They’re not. But the Minutemen should have enough pride to stay within the number. Having scored just 12 points through three games is not encouraging. But last week they were up against a very good Florida Atlantic defense. The week before they were facing undefeated Marshall. As ugly as the three losses have been this season, the Minutemen are now 6-2 ATS L8 times taking 31+ points.

Having the bubble “burst” on their unbeaten season puts Liberty in a huge letdown spot this week. Furthermore, they face undefeated Coastal Carolina next week, so the ‘look ahead’ factor is in play as well. This is almost certainly the highest spread in Liberty football history. The Flames have just two wins by more than 21 points this year (one vs. FCS) and three by six points or less. One of those three close victories was against a terrible FIU team. I think UMass can hit double digits this week. 8* Massachusetts

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): OK, this is crazy. New Mexico, who has lost 13 straight games dating back to last year, is FAVORED on the ROAD even though Utah State is off its bye. Now Utah State obviously isn’t very good either. The Aggies are 0-4 SU/ATS thus far and haven’t stayed within 19 points of anybody. But I would argue that they’ve faced the four top teams in the Mountain West. If they are to avoid a winless season, this is their best shot. The same can be said of New Mexico, but there’s just no way the Lobos should be favored by this many against anybody right now. 

New Mexico, also 0-4 SU, has come relatively close to victory twice this season. They lost 39-33 out in Hawaii, covering as 13-pt dogs. Then they only lost by 7 (27-20) to Nevada as 17-pt home underdogs. Both games saw the Lobos grab the early lead only to ultimately fall short. But then there was major regression last week in a 28-0 loss to Air Force. In one of the most stunning sequences in the history of football, Air Force fumbled on three consecutive possessions. Every time New Mexico got the ball (in AFA territory), they’d go on to miss a field goal. Remember that the Lobos aren’t playing home games this year due to COVID-19. This will essentially be their 5th road game in 5 weeks. 

As for Utah State, they got an unexpected bye last week when their game vs. Wyoming got called off. Extra prep time is not something any team should need when facing this New Mexico defense, but the Aggies will take it. After giving up 340+ yards passing each of the first three games, the Lobos then surrendered 356 on the ground to Air Force last week. This will mark the 2nd week in a row I fade New Mexico (had Air Force) as it appears bettors are being lulled into thinking the Lobos are going to get that elusive win. But I must reiterate that when a team has not won in 14 months, they probably should not be favored -- on the road no less. Lots of turmoil at Utah State (coaching change, QB dismissal), but New Mexico is still 1-21 SU in its L22 games vs. FBS opponents! 10* Utah State

8* Over Miss State/Georgia (7:30 ET): Mississippi State has gone Under in five straight, which is something we’re certainly not accustomed to seeing from a MIke Leach coached outfit. If you recall, it was a little over a month ago that I went on the record and stated the Bulldogs were an overrated side after beating LSU 44-34 in the season opener. Sure enough, they haven’t covered since (0-5 ATS) though they did snap a four-game SU losing streak by defeating Vanderbilt 24-17 two weeks ago. 

Mississippi State was supposed to play Auburn last week. But that game didn’t take place due to COVID-19, just like Georgia’s scheduled game vs. Missouri was not played. So both teams are off the unexpected bye this week. Last time we saw UGA was two weeks ago when they were ran off the field by Florida, 44-28. It was the Bulldogs’ second loss in three games and their highly touted defense gave up 41+ in both defeats. The other was against Alabama, who beat Miss State 41-0 earlier this year.

That Alabama loss was the only game where MSU faced a larger spread than this. It obviously didn’t go well and stayed Under. But the total for that game was 64. The first five MSU games all had O/U lines of 56 pts or higher. Facing the Georgia defense means this O/U line will obviously be lower, but the ‘Dawgs can potentially send this one Over almost by themselves -- no matter who starts at QB. The underdog will score enough to ensure this is a comfortable Over. Remember they put up over 600 yards on LSU! 8* Over Miss State/Georgia

9* South Carolina (7:30 ET): We’re getting a GREAT value on South Carolina here after their decision to fire Will Muschamp. Obviously such a move indicates the team is struggling, which they most certainly are, but it’s definitely noteworthy that my own power rankings have this game w/ Missouri rated as a tossup. I don’t think that the Tigers are good enough to be favored by this many on the road against anybody and you can look for the Gamecocks to play inspired ball following the coaching change. Take the points.

These two SEC East rivals have combined to play 12 games this season. Of those 12, only one time has either been favored and it was actually South Carolina (when they crushed Vanderbilt 41-7). So Missouri’s first time being favored in 2020 comes on the road, after a three-week hiatus (COVID) and against a team playing with nothing to lose. Mizzou has lost three games by 19 or more this season, the most recent coming at Florida (41-17) on Halloween. They haven’t played since then and rust could very well be a factor this week. 

South Carolina upset Auburn here in Columbia back on October 17th. That was their last win under Muschamp. After that it’s been three ugly losses with the defense getting torched every time. But Missouri has scored 20 points or less in four of its five games. Again, hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points on the road. South Carolina was one of the few SEC teams to play last week and did score 42 against Ole Miss w/ RB Kevin Harris going for 243 yards and five touchdowns. Anything close to that  will mean an easy cover here and possible outright upset. Missouri has given up 35 or more points in four of its five games. 9* South Carolina

8* Under Va Tech/Pitt (4:00 ET): Pittsburgh is a team we haven’t heard much from lately. That’s because they’ve played just one game in the last three weeks. It was a win, 41-17 over Florida State, which snapped a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. A streak that did continue w/ that blowout win over the Seminoles was the Panthers going Over the total, now at five straight. This week they are up against a Va Tech team that’s no stranger to high-scoring games this season. But I think the number is too high. 

There was some concern over whether or not this game would even be played due to COVID-19. Then came a Pennsylvania state edict that seemed like it would require all players to wear masks during the game. That was later clarified (on Friday) and no longer will face coverings be required. What we hope is required is some defense. That shouldn’t be a problem w/ Pitt, whose defense leads the country with 38 sacks this season. The Panthers allow less than 300 total YPG and only 79 YPG on the ground (just 2.2 YPC!).

That stout run defense will come in handy against Va Tech RB Khalil Herbert, who has been banged up recently. The Hokies are coming off B2B close losses to Miami and Liberty, two home games that they probably should have won. On the bright side, they did just hold a very potent Miami offense to 25 points. The Hurricanes had only 13 on the board late in the 3Q. Pitt’s offense, even w/ QB Pickett back, is nowhere near as good as Miami’s. Interestingly enough, Va Tech’s defense is #2 in the country (behind Pitt) in sacks. I think that the respective defensive fronts will rule this game. 8* Under Va Tech/Pitt

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): Right now there is a lot of value on the 10th ranked Wisconsin. I’ve got them 4th in my own power rankings. The reason for the value is they’ve only played two games, so the pollsters are going to wait to move them up the rankings. But the Badgers have made the most of the two opportunities they’ve gotten, first destroying Illinois 45-7 and then dealing Michigan its worst home loss in more than three-quarters of a century, 49-11 last week. This team is a legit CFP contender. 

I refuse to say the same about Northwestern, even though they are 4-0 SU and ranked #19 in the country. While my own power ratings say Wisconsin is underrated right now, they have the exact opposite read on Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The reason being N’western has three one-score wins, two of which saw them get outgained. They have relied heavily on a defense that is 11th overall in yards allowed, though two weeks ago that unit was very much “bend, but don’t break” as it allowed Nebraska to get into the red zone SEVEN different times, only to give up 13 points. I look for the Wisconsin offense to make them pay this week. 

The Badgers can also play defense. They held Illinois and Michigan to an average of 218.5 YPG. Though only two games, that average would place Paul Chryst’s team #1 in the country in total defense. This is only the 6th time since 2018 that a battle of ranked teams has seen the visitors favored by a TD or more. The previous five instances have seen the road fave go a perfect 5-0 ATS. Also, favorites have gone 14-5-1 ATS in all Top 25 matchups this season. I cashed a road favorite last week in the Big 10 (Indiana) and plan on doing the same here. 10* Wisconsin

8* Over Georgia St/South Alabama (3:30 ET): South Alabama has gone Under in each of its last five games, but I think a matchup against Georgia State will help buck that particular trend. While its definitely true that Georgia State struggled to move the ball in losses against two of the Sun Belt’s heavyweights, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, their offene has performed VERY well otherwise. Those “other” four games have seen the Panthers score at least 31 points every time out, three times scoring 49 or more.

  In fact, Georgia State started out the year by going Over in each of its first four games. I went Under when they faced Coastal Carolina and despite the Panthers giving up 51 points in that game, it was a win for me and my clients as Georgia State “forgot to score” (got shutout). That loss isn’t really indicative of where the Panthers “are at,” although they have given up 34 or more points five times this season including 50 or more on two different occasions. You can usually count on it being a high-scoring game when Georgia State is involved.

South Alabama’s season began with a very rare road win over Southern Miss (32-21). Since then they are just 2-5 with the two wins coming against La Monroe and Texas State, both of whom are awful. In four of their five losses, the Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less. But that shouldn’t be the case here facing the suspect Georgia State defense. They are due for an Over and it should come here against a team that has twice gone Over a total of 70.0 this season!  8* Over Georgia State/South Alabama

8* Rice (2:00 ET): Two teams that have felt the brunt of COVID-19 cancellations are Rice and North Texas. November is rapidly coming to a close and these two C-USA rivals have combined to play just seven games. Rice has only played twice! The Owls are 1-1 w/ a 30-6 win (over Southern Miss) the last time they took the field. But that win came all the way back on Halloween. North Texas is 2-3 SU, but hasn’t played since October 17th (!) when they drubbed Middle Tennessee 52-35 as a 3.5-point road dog. 

I had North Texas in that drubbing of Middle Tennessee. But as I said in the writeup, Middle Tennessee was as bad as any team in the country at that point of the season and did not deserve to be favored against anybody. The Southern Miss team that Rice beat for its only win is also very bad, but don’t tell that to North Texas, who lost to the Golden Eagles 41-31 back on October 3rd. The Mean Green defense has given up 31 or more points to every opponent this season, including FCS Houston Baptist. They are allowing 44.2 PPG overall, a frightening number for a team that comes in favored this week. 

Don’t expect all the off time to help North Texas here as they are 0-6 both straight up and against the spread after an off-week. With more than a month having elapsed between games, the Mean Green will be rusty here. Rice, who is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games, has put up 64 points in two games and its loss came in OT after a missed FG that was a “quadruple doink.” Their defense did not allow Southern Miss in the red zone the entire game. It was a 20-14 Owls’ win in LY’s meeting and I’ll grab the points here. 8* Rice

10* Air Force (9:30 ET): I disagree with the midweek line move here. New Mexico is not only 0-3 SU this season, they have lost 12 in a row going back to LY! The vast majority of those 12 straight losses have been by double digits. While they’ve been close each of the L2 weeks, losing by only 6 to Hawaii and by 7 to Nevada, the Lobos still have a LONG way to go to get back to respectability. The fact that QB Tevaka Tuioti missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable to return here does them no favors. This is also UNM’s third “true” road game in four weeks and last week’s “home game” was played in Vegas.

Air Force started its season before every other Mountain West team. Back on October 3rd, they opened the season with a 40-7 beatdown of Navy (as 6.5-pt underdogs). But, like New Mexico, the Flyboys are winless in MWC play. They lost a low-scoring game (17-6) at San Jose State and then a high-scoring game (49-30) here in Colorado Springs to Boise State. But while New Mexico is playing for a 4th consecutive week, the AFA has been off the past two weekends. Scheduled games against Army and Wyoming were cancelled due to COVID-19.

Prior to the B2B losses to open conference play, Air Force was actually on a 9-game win streak! That’s obviously a far cry from the form flashed by New Mexico over the last year. This is the game where the Falcons get their running game on track. New Mexico has yet to face an opponent that ran the ball more than 28 times. Air Force could double that number of attempts here. They lead the country in rush offense (330 YPG), averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The L2 meetings have seen the AFA offense gain 1,163 total yards against the Lobos defense. 10* Air Force

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Louisville isn’t as bad as its 2-6 (SU) record as they’ve outgained their opponent in three of the last four losses. The only one of those four losses where the Cardinals DIDN’T have the edge in total yards was against Notre Dame and that ended up being only a five-point loss (12-7!) in South Bend. Considering that they are finding ways to lose games they should probably win, the Cardinals probably shouldn’t be this large of a favorite against anybody. They simply turn the ball over too much (-12 TO margin) to justify this kind of price range.

Syracuse probably isn’t much better than its 1-7 SU record, but they did stay close two weeks ago against Boston College, losing only 16-13. They’ve stayed within tonight’s number against most of their opponents, save for the toughest matchups like Clemson and North Carolina. Injuries and a tough schedule have done the ‘Cuse no favors thus far, but they are coming off a bye here certainly helps. I believe they’ll be able to move the ball and score on a Louisville defense that’s giving up nearly 30 points and 400 yards per game. Freshman QB JaCobian Morgan looked decent enough in his first career start (vs. BC) and should perform better here w/ the added prep time.

After rocketing up to an 8-5 SU record last season, Louisville was a pretty obvious candidate for regression in 2020. They were just 2-10 SU two years ago and everything that went right for them LY has gone wrong this season. As alluded to above, turnover margin has been one of the biggest reasons for the decline. But they can’t fix the fact that RB Javian Hawkins has opted out to concentrate on the 2021 NFL Draft. WR Tutu Atwell, who missed the 31-17 loss to Virginia last week, may also miss tonight’s game. I just don’t see the justification for the spread being this large. L’ville is just 6-14-1 ATS its L21 ACC games. 8* Syracuse

8* Tulane (7:30 ET): Tulsa (#25) is off to a 4-1 SU start and ranked for the first time since 2010. That’s quite the cause for celebration. This is a program that won a combined NINE games the last three seasons. I’ve cashed them two different times this season. The first was plus the points against Oklahoma State in the season opener. That’s their only SU loss. The other was a 42-13 beatdown of USF. But there are two factors that have me looking to fade the Golden Hurricane this week: 1. They’ve been living quite dangerously (falling behind early) and 2. This is their shortest turnaround between games this season.

This is the second straight week Tulane faces the #25 ranked team in the country. But this time they will have to hit the road as underdogs. Still, the way the Green Wave dismantled Army last week has me looking to take the points here. The 38-12 win as 3.5-pt chalk on Saturday was Tulane’s third straight win (all by 17+ points) and fifth straight cover. Normally, I might look to fade a team on such a hot streak, but it certainly looks as if the visitors aren’t getting the proper respect this week. 

Three of Tulsa’s four wins this year have seen them rally back from 14+ point deficits. They trailed UCF by 18, East Carolina by 14 (miracle win) and then SMU by 21 (here at home) on Saturday. It’s hard to pull the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” every week. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricane had played just twice in 41 days prior to the upset of SMU. Now they’ve got just five days in between games. The only other time this season they had to play on “normal” or short rest was the East Carolina game where they were lucky to win 34-30 and never came close to covering the 17-point spot. Because of its ranking, Tulsa may very well be overconfident entering this week. That’s a mistake against a Tulane team who led by double digits in two of its four losses. A third loss came in overtime. Taking the points is the way to go here in what should be a good game. 8* Tulane

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): A case could be made that Northern Illinois actually outplayed Buffalo in a season opening 49-30 loss. After all, they outgained the Bulls 397-357. But they were undone by a -5 turnover margin in that game. Unfortunately, there was no “explaining away” the terrible 40-10 loss the Huskies suffered last week to Central Michigan. That game saw them get held to just 224 total yards. Making the 0-2 SU/ATS start even worse is the fact both losses were in DeKalb. Now NIU is set to hit the road for the 1st time in 2020. 

Ball State is also 0-2 ATS, but they did win SU last week, defeating Eastern Michigan 38-31 in come from behind fashion. That was a stark contrast to the previous week’s result, also a 38-31 final, where they blew a 1st half lead and fell to Miami. Unlike Northern Illinois, the Cardinals have had the total yardage edge in both of their games this season. They rolled up well over 500 yards last week. They have a significant offensive edge in this matchup and I just don’t see how the underdog keeps up. 

Northern Illinois used to be the standard-bearer in the MAC. But the Huskies have fallen on hard times and should now be considered one of the weaker teams in the entire country. Meanwhile, Ball State is a program on the rise under HC Mike Neu and is going to be one of the better MAC teams this season. Something that’s even more damning for Northern Illinois’ 0-2 start is that their defense leads the country in 3rd down conversion rate, which is highly unlikely to continue. Ball State’s offense will make them pay on third down and move the ball w/ ease, thus dropping NIU to 3-14-1 ATS off a DD loss at home. 10* Ball State

10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green (7:00 ET): Bowling Green is looking like it might be the worst team in the country this season. If not them, it’s Akron (another team from the MAC), who has lost 19 in a row. Last week saw the Falcons get drubbed 62-24 by Kent State. They are now 0-2 SU/ATS as they lost their season opener 38-3 to Toledo. This matchup with 2-0 Buffalo, perhaps the MAC’s best team, is less than ideal. The Bulls have covered 9 of their last 10 games overall (beat Miami 42-10 last week) and have covered six straight seasons against Bowling Green. Despite the huge spread here, I almost laid the points. But that doesn’t seem prudent. Instead it’s a play on the total that needs to be made.

Bowling Green has given up 100 points in two games. But as bad as the defense has been, the offense might be worse. They ranked 128th in scoring last season (16.0 PPG) as well as 124th in yards per play and 120th in yards per game. There was some hope w/ Boston College transfer Matt MacDonald coming in to play QB, but he’s been HORRIBLE, completing only 14 of his 50 pass attempts (not a misprint!). The Falcons just aren’t going to score many points Tuesday against a decent Buffalo defense.

That brings us to the Buffalo offense. As mentioned above, it was a very impressive 42-10 win over Miami last week. That followed a 49-point effort in the opener at Northern Illinois, but they had a lot of short TD drives in that game because of five NIU turnovers. Even if Buffalo puts up 40 again this week (very possible), I still see this game going Under. The last two years have seen Buffalo beat BG by scores of 49-7 and 44-14. It’s probably going to be a similar score tonight, which would work just fine. Bowling Green is 14-5 Under L19 games. 10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green

9* Over Northwestern/Purdue (7:30 ET): I’m still very unhappy how last week’s Nebraska-Northwestern game turned out. I had Nebraska plus the points and judging by the fact they outgained N’western 442-317, you would have thought they’d at least covered. Incredibly, the Cornhuskers were in the red zone SEVEN times and came away with just 13 points. They missed a field goal and had two costly interceptions before turning it over on downs (inside the 15) on the drive that decided the game. Nine times in the game Nebraska crossed midfield. So let’s be careful before anointing Northwestern’s defense as anything special, okay? 

Unlike Nebraska, Purdue should be able to cash in its scoring chances as it hosts the Wildcats this week. The Boilermakers have scored 24 and 31 points in their two games thus far, both of them wins. Last week they were set to face Wisconsin, but COVID 19 cancelled that matchup. So with an extra week to prepare for the Northwestern defense, I think Purdue’s offense will do well Saturday night. I’d like the chances even more if WR Rondale Moore and RB King Doerue (both gametime decisions) suited up for the 1st time this season. But consider that a luxury if one or both do. Over is the play here regardless. 

In Moore’s absence, David Bell has put up big numbers with 22 catches for 234 yards. (Remember, that’s just two games). These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this season, but that trend is about to end. Northwestern could get its starting RB (Isaiah Bowser) back from an injury, again something that should be considered a luxury if he does suit up. The Wildcats did put up 43 points in the season opener (vs. Maryland) so they are more than capable of a big offensive game themselves. Over is 7-3-1 in N’western’s L11 games as a road favorite while it’s also 15-5 in Purdue’s L20 as a home dog. 9* Over Northwestern/Purdue

10* Baylor (4:00 ET): For much of this year, my power rankings have indicated that Baylor has been underrated (by the oddsmakers) while Texas Tech is being overrated. Twice I’ve cashed Baylor in 2020. The first time was the opener (against Kansas), a game which they won 47-14. The second was last week in a 38-31 road loss to Iowa State where they were taking double digits. That was the Bears’ 4th consecutive defeat (Kansas is their only win), but this line “jumping the fence” seems like a strong indicator that losing streak is about to come to an end. 

Texas Tech has spurned me on two different occasions this season - against Texas (covered as 17-pt home dogs) and against West Virginia (covered as 2.5-pt underdogs). While the call on Texas was certainly bad (game went to OT), I still stand by the play on WVU, who outgained the Red Raiders by around 100 total yards. By that same standard, the Red Raiders probably feel like they got “the short end of the stick” last week vs. TCU where total yardage was pretty close to even, but they lost by 18 thanks to giving up a long TD run (by the TCU QB) late in the game (that cost them the cover). 

Texas Tech has just two wins this year, the one vs West Virginia and one vs. FCS Houston Baptist, which was the season opener and saw them allow 600 total yards. Those two wins were by a total of nine points. The win over Houston Baptist required they stop a late 2-pt try (won 35-33) and a late defensive TD was the difference in the 34-27 win over WVU. The Red Raiders’ defense is giving up 107 YPG more than Baylor’s is. The Bears’ four losses have all been by 11 points or less and to teams better than Texas Tech. They led by 2 TD’s LW in Ames and have covered 8 of their last 12 road games. 10* Baylor

8* Over UTEP/UTSA (3:00 ET): The big surprise is that both of these teams come into Saturday sporting .500 records. That may not sound like much, but UTEP and UTSA aren’t exactly what you’d consider traditional powerhouses. In the three seasons before this one, UTEP went 2-34 straight up! They’ve already exceeded that three-year win total with a 3-3 SU start to 2020. UTSA hadn’t been nearly as bad as UTEP, but has already matched LY’s win total by going 4-4 SU. They are the favorites here and likely to win. 

Some context should probably be provided with UTEP’s 3-3 SU start. The Miners have beaten two FCS programs (Stephen F Austin, Abilene Christian) and a LA Monroe team I consider to be among the bottom five in the FBS. On a more positive front, the offense has averaged 25.3 points and 384 yards the L3 games (all vs. FBS foes). Their two highest scoring games of the season (31 vs. LA Monroe and 28 vs. Charlotte) have come during that stretch. Hopefully, the fact they haven’t played in three weeks (COVID-19) doesn’t slow them down. This will also be the Miners’ 4th consecutive road game. 

What initially caught my eye here is the fact UTSA has gone Under in five straight games. They last played two weeks ago and lost 24-3 to Florida Atlantic. But the Roadrunners also gave BYU their toughest game (27-20) and have been involved in three other games where at least 53 total points were scored. That’s why I think this number is too low. UTSA games are averaging 51.3 PPG this season (51-48 win over Texas State helps) while UTEP games average 45.2. This is the lowest O/U line for either team this season. The Over is 13-3 in UTEP’s last 16 November games. 8* Over UTEP/UTSA

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET): At first glance, the idea of laying this many points with Kentucky didn’t really intrigue me. After all, this is a team that’s scored a total of just 13 points its last two games and has struggled to move the ball all season. But they are facing a winless Vanderbilt team in Lexington this week and coming out of a bye. If ever there was a “get right” game for the Wildcats, it would be this one right here. At the start of the season, this was projected to be one of Mark Stoops’ best teams in his eight years in Lexington and my own power rankings say UK should be about a FOUR touchdown favorite! 

While the Kentucky offense - particularly the passing game - has had its fair share of struggles, there are no such issues with the defense, which actually leads the SEC in scoring (only 19.0 PPG allowed). The Wildcats’ D is giving up just 5.0 yards per play and 355.3 yards per game (3rd best in SEC). They held Georgia to just 14 points, Tennessee to 7 and Mississippi State to 2! They should have no problem stopping a Vanderbilt offense whose highest scoring game - 21 points - came in a 33 point defeat. The Commodores are averaging just 12.8 PPG this season, which is obviously last in the SEC.

Last week Vandy probably should have beaten Mississippi State (they lost 24-17), but five turnovers were costly in a game they outgained the opposition 478-204. Don’t go reading too much into that defensive effort though. It came on the heels of the Commies allowing 54 points and 641 total yards the previous week to Ole Miss. They trailed Miss State 17-0 in the 1st half and turnovers have been an issue all year in Nashville as right now Vandy is a SEC worst -8 in TO margin, having given it away at least twice in every game. Kentucky’s defense has forced 12 turnovers in the L4 games. Whoever is in at QB for the Wildcats - Wilson or Gatewood - will be able to move the ball against this lousy Commodores’ defense. Kentucky has beaten Vandy four straight times and are 10-2 ATS L12 home games. 8* Kentucky

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons have been kind to me on two different occasions this season, both times as an underdog. The first was the season opener vs. Clemson where they covered a very large spread. The second was facing Virginia Tech and that time they pulled off the outright upset. Having now won four straight and coming off a bye, the Deacons are once again getting points this week and I’m going to look to make it 3 for 3 with them. My power ratings comfortably have this as a one-score game. 

Last week marked the second time this season that North Carolina bounced back from a loss in impressive fashion. They crushed rival Duke, winning 56-24 as an 11.5-point favorite. But sustaining success has been a problem for the Tar Heels. Since opening 3-0, they’re just 2-2 SU the L4 games w/ losses to Florida State (as a 17-point favorite) and Virginia (as an 8-point favorite). While those two losses were both by just a field goal and on the road, none of the teams UNC has beaten this year are as good as Wake Forest. At least according to my power rankings.

This matchup is a lot more even than the odds seem to indicate. Furthermore, Wake Forest has been a lot more efficient in the red zone and takes better care of the football. Take away the game vs. NC State (where they were +4 in turnovers) and North Carolina is “in the red” when it comes to TO margin this season. Wake is not only +14 in TO margin (!), but also rested and comes in with a balanced offense averaging 41.3 points over its L4 games. North Carolina has its bye next week then plays host to Notre Dame, so they could be looking past this game. Wake Forest is too good to be anyone’s “look ahead,” so I’m taking the points. 8* Wake Forest

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Michigan State does have a rather shocking outright win over Michigan to its credit. But Sparty has otherwise demonstrated that they are NOT a very good team in its first year post-Mark Dantonio. There’s a reason they were three touchdown underdogs against the Wolverines. The previous week (season opener) they’d lost by 11 - here at home - to Rutgers. Then last week, after the upset in Ann Arbor, the Spartans were blown out 49-7 at Iowa. Right now, I’ve got them rated as the 2nd WORST team in the Big 10 (ahead of only Illinois). 

 After years of disappointing results, it finally feels like Indiana is breaking through. The Hoosiers are off to a 3-0 start and have beaten Penn State and Michigan. While this might “feel” like an opportunity to fade them, the truth is they are just that much better than Michigan State right now and deserve to be favored on the road. I mentioned above that I’ve got MSU rated as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10. Well, IU is rated third BEST (behind only Ohio State & Wisconsin) and the pollsters are in agreement having them in the Top 10 in the country for the 1st time since 1968! 

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr is 8-1 SU as a starter, the lone loss coming last year to Michigan State. It certainly seems as if the Hoosiers won’t be lacking for motivation Saturday in East Lansing as HC Tom Allen called this "a trophy game (Ol’ Brass Spitoon!) for us here that we have placed a high value on.” Allen has never beaten MSU in three previous tries. Michigan State’s offense is pretty lousy w/ QB Lombardi tossing THREE interceptions last week and the running game averaging just 78.3 yards (last in Big 10). My own power rankings call for a two touchdown difference in this one. 8* Indiana

10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida International (7:00 ET): This total opened low and it’s dropped even lower. I now think it’s low enough that an Over play is definitely warranted. Over the course of any football game, there are so many “random” things that can take place, such as a “big play” or a turnover. For a game to stay Under a total this low, all of that would have to be avoided. I’m willing to bet that we get some of that randomness here. Getting two College Football teams to score 20 points in 2020 doesn’t seem like a big ask. Even if both don’t here, one will score enough to get the game Over. 

I am obviously well aware of the fact that every FAU game has stayed Under so far. Through four games, the Owls are averaging just 16.0 PPG while allowing only 11.5 PPG. They are off a 10-6 win over Western Kentucky last week, a game in which I took the points (w/ WKU) and won. No team in the country has seen a lower total PPG scoring average this season than the Owls. But 27.5 PPG is simply too low of a number to sustain. Here they are facing a FIU defense that’s giving up 28.7 PPG. Throw in the fact that the Panthers scored a combined 62 points their first games and this should easily produce FAU’s highest scoring game to date.

FIU hasn’t played in three weeks. Last time we saw them, the Panthers suffered an embarrassing 19-10 defeat at the hands of FCS Jacksonville State. But with all the extra time to prepare for FAU, my view is that FIU’s offense is going to have a bounce back game. Same for FAU, who was tied 0-0 w/ WKU last week. A change at QB was made last week for the Owls and Javion Posey led the game-winning drive. FIU’s defense is giving up 460 YPG. The Over has cashed the L4 times these “Shula Bowl” rivals have met in Miami. Consider that the closing O/U lines for these teams in Week 1 were 63.0 and 61.0.  This number is just too low not to try w/ the Over. 10* Over Florida Atlantic/Florida Intl

10* Under Colorado State/Boise State (8:00 ET): Boise State was severely humbled last week, here on the blue turf no less, losing 51-17 to BYU. Quite frankly, it could have been a whole lot worse. I was actually debating playing the Broncos last Friday, but in retrospect am obviously very glad to have passed. I think it’s going to be a pretty difficult loss for them to shake as this week they host Mountain West rival Colorado State. All three Boise State games thus far have gone Over the total. Not this one though. 

Colorado State probably “deserves” to be 1-1 thus far, though I think each score was somewhat misleading. In a season-opening 38-17 loss at Fresno State, they didn’t play nearly as poorly as one would expect judging from that final score. Conversely, they were actually outgained 465-342 in a 34-24 win over Wyoming last weekend. That game saw the Rams obviously benefit from a +3 turnover margin as they opened the scoring with a “pick-six.” The CSU offense isn’t running the ball all that effectively thus far (3.2 YPC) and is averaging just 22 PPG when you take away that defensive score. 

On the positive side, Colorado State’s defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. They may also be in luck in that Boise State could be down to its third string QB. Starter Hank Bachmeier is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has missed the L2 games. His backup, Jack Sears, was knocked out of the BYU game with a concussion. Whether or not either can make it back on the field for Thursday, this is an easy call on the Under, which is 25-11 in Boise’s last 36 home games. 10* Under Colorado State/Boise State

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Both of these teams suffered close losses on the road last week. You had Eastern Michigan losing 27-23 at Kent State and Ball State losing 38-31 at Miami. Eastern Michigan trailed 20-9 at the half, but rallied to take a 23-20 lead in the 4Q. But it wasn’t to be, as on the next drive the Eagles’ defense gave up what turned out to be the game-winning TD. Ball State enjoyed a much greater advantage last week (led by 11 in the 3Q) but couldn’t close the deal and unlike Eastern Michigan, the Cardinals did NOT cover the spread in their season opener, a very tough break for anyone that had them.

While those results seem pretty similar, an inspection of the box scores reveals that BSU played a whole lot better than Eastern Michigan did a week ago. The Cardinals outgained Miami 478-422 and like I said above had a DD advantage in the second half. Eastern Michigan not only trailed by DD in the 1st Half, they were outgained for the game 431-302. The Eagles’ rushing attack was virtually non-existent as it averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry. As for Ball State, they gained 169 yards on 38 carries.

Despite losing to Miami last week, I have high hopes for this Ball State squad, this week and beyond. They are a veteran team that was actually 4th in YPG differential LY in the conference. Eastern Michigan has a lot LESS returning talent this year and even though they came close last week, it was against a weaker opponent than who Ball State faced. The Cardinals gained 453 yards in last season’s 29-23 win in Ypsilanti and I think are in for another big night here. This being the 2nd of B2B road games is a clear disadvantage for Eastern Michigan. 10* Ball State

8* Bowling Green (7:30 ET): Pretty shocking to see Kent State this big of a favorite, even if the opponent is Bowling Green. The Golden Flashes have been a road favorite just one time under HC Sean Lewis (3rd year here) previous to this. It was last season against what would end up being an 0-12 Akron team. Bowling Green isn’t quite that bad and they are actually getting more points here than Akron did a season ago. Kent State has been road chalk just four times in the last six seasons as well! 

The Golden Flashes did win a home game in their season opener, 27-23 over Eastern Michigan. They did not cover the 5.5-point number as they actually trailed in the 4th quarter and did not score the go-ahead TD until there was 7:30 to go. Of course, a win was a lot better than what Bowling Green did in its season opener. They fell 38-3 at Toledo. That was a really disappointing effort to open HC Scott Loeffler’s second season. But the good news is that the Falcons were a .500 team at home last season and they are back at Perry Stadium this week.

Matt McDonald was thought to be an upgrade at QB for BG, but the Boston College transfer really struggled LW vs. Toledo. I expect him to play better this week. As an underdog, the Falcons can use all the help that they can get. A weather forecast calling for 20 MPH wind might be to their benefit. Wind or not, I just think this is too many points for Kent State to be laying right now. They had a strong finish to 2019, going 5-0 ATS L5 (including a bowl win) but all those covers came from the underdog role. Last week they showed they may struggle ATS as favorites. Take the points. 8* Bowling Green

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This line was quickly bet up, but it’s still under four touchdowns (28 pts) and that’s still a value to me. In its season opener, Akron once again demonstrated that they’re not even close to being a competitive outfit. They lost 58-13 to Western Michigan and gave up nearly 500 total yards in the process. Remember that the Zips were 0-12 SU in 2019 and last in the country in scoring offense. Ohio was also unsuccessful in their first game, although it was a lot closer when they lost 27-20 to Central Michigan. I was a little shocked the Bobcats didn’t score an offensive TD in the 2nd half in that one. 

From 2014-17, these MAC East rivals were pretty competitive. All four meetings were decided by six points or less, three of them by a total of eight points. Ohio won three of the four and as you might ascertain they’ve since seized control of the rivalry. In 2018, they won 49-28 here in Athens. Last year it was a 52-3 rout at Infocision Stadium. Akron has now lost 12 straight MAC games and all but one has been by double digits!  They are 3-14 ATS L17 MAC games. 

Akron was w/o its starting QB and RB last week, which you could say helps explain the lopsided result. But given how bad the team was last year, I wouldn’t expect drastic improvement even if QB Nelson or RB Gest were to return. Overall, the Zips ended up starting nine players against WMU who are either freshmen or transfers, including four redshirts along the OL. Ohio’s defense gave up only 4.85 yards per play last week (were on the field for 88 plays) while Akron’s was torched for 8.43. This should end up being the Bobcats’ easiest win of 2020. 10* Ohio

8* Tennessee (7:30 ET): Here’s a (small) favorite for the 3-pack, on the road no less. A big reason why I’m fading Arkansas here is that they are 5-0 ATS, a run they will not be able to continue. But it’s also a good spot for Tennessee. The Vols, on a three-game losing streak, are coming out of a bye. Two of those three losses were to Georgia and Alabama. They were #14 in the country before the losing streak began. Now they’re laying less than a field goal to who we all thought was the worst SEC West team coming into the year. 

As evident by their perfect ATS mark, Arkansas has been surprisingly competitive this season. They have wins over Miss State and Ole Miss. They probably SHOULD have beaten Auburn. Coming into 2020, the Razorbacks had not won an SEC game since 2017. Last week, they looked more like the team we are accustomed to seeing in SEC play. While they did get in through the backdoor against Texas A&M (lost 42-31 as a 14.5-pt dog), they trailed 42-17 going into the 4Q and the TD that put them “in the money” came in the final minute.

Tennessee actually led Georgia at halftime! They’ve been victimized by some poor luck/carelessness as they’ve been on the wrong end of THREE defensive TDs during their losing streak. Right now, the Volunteers are dead last in the SEC in third down conversion rate (at 26%). I do not expect that to continue. And speaking of turnovers, Arkansas was a VERY fortunate +7 in their two wins. They were actually outgained in both of those victories. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 3 pts or less and 7-3 ATS L10 road games overall. 8* Tennessee

8* Baylor (7:00 ET): Baylor did NOT play well last week. They trailed TCU 30-0 in the first half, at home. While the Bears did rally to get within 10, you really can’t call the 33-23 loss “close.” But similarly, Iowa State’s 52-22 win over Kansas last week was not as big of a “blowout” as you might think. The Cyclones were “only” up 16 on the worst team in the Big 12 with just over five minutes remaining. Though they ended up covering the number there, ISU has NOT been reliable as a big favorite including a 2-6 ATS mark when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Baylor is 20-9-1 ATS as a double digit dog. 

With Oklahoma State losing to Texas last week, Iowa State is now tied for the conference lead. They are ranked #17 in the country. But in addition to their own woes as chalk, we have consistently seen ranked teams struggle to cover as DD favorites against unranked opponents this College Football season. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the L3 times they’ve been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. A number of Iowa State games have been close calls this season. Three of the six games have been decided by 7 points or less.

Baylor’s defense actually ranks 4th in the Big 12 in terms of yards allowed. The offense, despite a senior QB (Charlie Brewer), has been the issue this season. Brewer’s completion percentage is at a career-low right now, but some of that has to do with the offensive line, which is now healthy for the first time this season. Despite the 1-3 SU record, Baylor actually does have a positive scoring differential as none of their losses have been by more than 11 points. They were able to stay within 11 of Texas in Austin. The number here is even larger than it was in Austin, which is something I don’t agree with as I’ve got Texas higher in my power rankings. Take the points. 8* Baylor

8* Western Kentucky (6:00 ET): Well, I’m going to give the Hilltoppers another try this week. They are now 0-7 at the betting window (worst ATS record in the country) and 2-5 SU after LW’s 41-10 loss to #9 BYU. WKU is clearly underperforming expectations this season, but it is worth noting last week they had three 10+ play drives amount to a combined three points. That’s stunning. QB Tyrrell Pigrome is back, so I have confidence that the Hilltoppers can move the ball and in a game with a (very) low total, I’m taking the points. 

Florida Atlantic has played just three games. I faded them in the first, a 21-17 win over Charlotte where they did NOT cover the spread. Since then, the Owls have lost 20-9 at Marshall and won 24-3 over UTSA. So no FAU game has seen more than 38 total points scored! With that being the case, it is very difficult to imagine them covering the spread as this large of a favorite. This just isn’t the same team we saw under Lane Kiffin. The Owls certainly aren’t in the same class as previous WKU opponents such as UAB, Liberty, Louisville and especially BYU. 

I just have a hard time believing WKU is as bad as they have looked thus far. The fact they have played seven games and FAU has played only three is an advantage for the underdog. Again, FAU has yet to score more than 24 points in any game this season. Thus, no matter the opponent, you almost HAVE to fade with them in this kind of price range. Western Kentucky WILL improve on its almost unfathomable 29.5% third down conversion rate. The defense hasn’t been bad, all things considered. Take the points. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma (3:30 ET): During this perfect 11-0 NCAAF totals run that I am on, it’s been pretty surprising just how many Unders have been cashed. What I’ve been doing is simply going Under in games where one or both teams have been on long Over streaks. We’ve got one here in Kansas, who has seen all of its games - but one - go Over this season. That one exception, a 47-14 loss to Baylor, was a push. This matchup with Oklahoma completely fits the bill of what I’ve been doing during the streak. I’m taking the Under. 

Now I realize there is concern that Oklahoma has the capability to send this one Over themselves. Last week, the Sooners hung 62 on Texas Tech. But their previous high (in regulation) for a game was 48 against a FCS school, Missouri State, and that was also a shutout. If OU is up as big as expected here (they are a 38-pt favorite!), then it’s highly likely they take their “foot off the gas” in the second half. Last week they scored 48 in the first half and then only 14 in the second. It’s unlikely they are going to score 48 in a half two weeks in a row. 

Kansas won’t score much at all here. The 22 points they put up last week was a season-high in Big 12 play. The previous four games were all 17 pts or less and twice they failed to reach 200 total yards. It should be noted that four of their six games have finished with 61 total points or less. Last week was right at 60 before Iowa State curiously scored two late TDs.  This is the highest O/U line of the year for any Kansas game. It will stay Under the number. 10* Under Kansas/Oklahoma

9* Nebraska (12:00 ET): So the Cornhuskers got an unexpected bye last week when their scheduled opponent (Wisconsin) got hit with a COVID 19 outbreak. That was dually beneficial, not just for the bye, but also they avoided what would have been a likely loss in Lincoln. The ‘Huskers have already lost once this year, not unexpectedly, as they went up against Ohio State in the season opener and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. But this week’s opponent isn’t Ohio State or Wisconsin. Take the points.

Northwestern is 2-0, but needed to come back from an early 17-0 deficit to win last Saturday in Iowa. The Wildcats were far more impressive the previous week, beating Maryland 43-3, which now looks even more impressive given how the Terps handled Minnesota. But something that sticks out to me about this Wildcats’ team is that they have benefited from SEVEN turnovers (by the opponents) in two games! They can’t count on receiving that many giveaways every week. It should also be pointed out that the N’western offense had just 273 total yards last week and had a horrible 2.4 yards per rush attempt. 

Even though it’s a unique and shortened season, Nebraska needs to show SOMETHING in its third year under HC Scott Frost. The team went just 4-8 and 5-7 his first two years here. They lost three games as a favorite in 2019. I like the chances of covering here as four of the last five meetings w/ Northwestern have been one score games, three of which have been by a field goal or less. Two went to overtime. Frost used two QBs against Ohio State, which will make his team difficult to prepare for. Northwestern is 1-7-1 ATS its last 9 games as a home favorite. 9* Nebraska

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): Needless to say, it’s been a couple of VERY different starts to the season for these two Mountain West teams. Utah State is 0-2 SU/ATS. They’ve been outscored 80-20 and the lone TD last week came on a circus catch near the end of the half. But, as always, some context needs to be provided.  So far, the Aggies have faced Boise State and San Diego State, two of the standard bearers in this conference. I think we’re getting a REAL generous number here as they are set to visit Reno. 

Nevada is 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. But the Wolf Pack have played Wyoming and UNLV. Wyoming lost its starting QB early, yet was still able to force OT against the Wolf Pack. I tried taking a flier on UNLV hosting the Wolf Pack last Saturday night. While that ended up NOT working out (Nevada won 37-19 as a 2 TD favorite), note that was a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. Something I find fascinating for this matchup is that last year Utah State was a 21-point favorite in Logan … and covered the spread.

Granted that was w/ Jordan Love at QB, but I don’t think the odds should be shifting more than FIVE touchdowns from last season’s meeting. Utah State HC Gary Andersen really ripped his team’s 2H effort vs. San Diego State, thus we should be getting a pretty motivated performance from the dog on Thursday night. It’s a national TV game (FS1) where the Aggies don’t want to be embarrassed. Eight of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 pts or less. USU has covered just one of the last five as a home favorite. 10* Utah State

8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio HC Frank Solich has never won a MAC Title despite being the conference’s all-time wins leader. For the second consecutive season, the Bobcats come in as the betting favorite to win the conference. They open in Mt Pleasant against a Central Michigan team that has given them fits in the past. This non-division rivalry has seen CMU capture four in a row, three of those wins coming as underdogs. The Chippewas had an incredible bounce back in 2019, going from 1-11 SU (in ‘18) to 8-6 and an appearance in the MAC Championship. I believe they’re likely to regress in 2020 and OU gets its revenge.

The big storyline (for both teams) coming into this season opener will be at the QB position. Both are breaking in new starters at the most important position. Ohio can’t possibly replace the production of Nathan Rourke, who left as the school’s all-time leading passer and was a running threat as well. But whoever ends up being the new starter will have a lot of talent at RB and WR. Three starters also return along the offensive line. For the record, we will probably see both Kurtis Rourke (Nathan’s brother) and Armani Rogers (UNLV transfer) under center for the Bobcats on Wednesday.

Central Michigan will almost certainly be starting freshman Daniel Richardson, although Sam Houston State transfer Ty Brock could get some snaps as well. The issue here is that senior David Moore is under suspension for PED use. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chips lost a pair of corners before fall camp. They have less overall production returning than Ohio and I believe the “plexiglass principle” is in play this year for CMU. Solich will badly want to beat this team, especially after starting LY 1-3. The Bobcats’ receivers will exploit the depleted CMU secondary and move the team to 12-5 SU L17 MAC games. 8* Ohio

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): The Rebels certainly didn’t show much in their first game under new HC Marcus Arroyo. They were soundly beaten, 34-6 by San Diego State, gaining just 186 total yards in the process. But that was one of the Mountain West’s top teams they were up against there and it was on the road. Here, they’re at home and playing their rival (battle for the “Fremont Cannon!”), who they’ve upset each of the last two seasons. This is actually the 1st game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium that will have fans. The line has moved too much. Take the points. 

Nevada’s season started with a 37-34 overtime win against Wyoming. The Wolfpack had a double digit early, but let the Cowboys back in it despite the fact they lost their starting QB. Winning close is nothing new for Nevada as they are now 9-3 SU the L2 seasons in games decided by seven points or less. That makes the fans in Reno happy, but it also means the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points. Two of those three close losses that they’ve suffered came at the hands of UNLV, including 34-29 as a 2 TD favorite here in Vegas two years ago. 

Last season, the Rebels pulled off a 33-30 upset in Reno, a game that went to overtime and was marred by a post-game brawl. Nevada is traditionally not a great road team as LY they faced just one team that was in a bowl away from home. They are 2-5 ATS L7 as a road favorite. While UNLV was gashed on the ground by San Diego State last week, Nevada had only 76 yds rushing in its win over Wyoming (less than 3.0 yds per carry).  The Rebels are 12-3-1 ATS following an ATS loss. 8* UNLV

8* Western Kentucky (10:15 ET): I don’t think any team has underperformed its expectations this College Football season more so than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS, easily the worst such mark in the country. Last week, they barely managed to beat an FCS squad, Chattanooga. While this might not exactly be a “rousing” endorsement of a side I’m going to take on Saturday against a BYU team that has clearly OVERPERFORMED its own expectations, this is a lot of points & I don’t think WKU is this bad. 

BYU is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. This will already be the third time this season that the Cougars have been asked to lay 28 or more points at the betting window. Their lone ATS loss came in a really lethargic effort vs. UTSA three weeks ago when they only won 27-20 as 34-point chalk. Last week did see them defeat Texas State 52-14 as a 29-point favorite. But as rough as things have been for Western Kentucky so far, they are still a better team than those two aforementioned BYU opponents. I have the Hilltoppers rated several points higher than Texas State, for example.

Three of Western Kentucky’s six games, including both of their SU wins, have been decided by six points or less. They also stayed within 14 of Louisville in the season opener. I can’t imagine a team going winless ATS for an entire season, so you know that elusive first cover is coming for the team from Bowling Green. They have covered 10 of the last 14 times they’ve been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. BYU is in a look ahead to a showdown with Boise State next week, which will be their toughest regular season game. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Charlotte (7:00 ET): While there is no denying that Duke’s all-ACC schedule has been more difficult than what Charlotte has faced thus far, I still don’t think the Blue Devils should be laying more than a touchdown in this spot - even after a bye. Under HC David Cutcliffe, Duke has been terrible as a favorite, going just 1-7 ATS when -3.5 to -10 and that includes SIX outright losses! They are a 1-5 (SU) team that turns the ball over way too much for my tastes (22 times in six games). Trust me when I say you’re going to want to take the points in this one. 

Charlotte comes in at 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS. Last week was the first non-cover of the season as they only beat UTEP by 10 (were laying 17). The 49ers have been dogs two times previous to this and (obviously) covered both times. Those games were against a pair of conference champs from last season, Appalachian State and Florida Atlantic. I had them against FAU. That was followed by a 49-21 thrashing of North Texas on the road as 3.5-point chalk where they gained over 600 total yards of offense. They didn’t move the ball nearly as well last week vs. UTEP (surprising) but fortunately for the 49ers, Duke has allowed 26+ points in every game so far.

Duke’s only win this year was against a Syracuse team that is really bad. They turned it over the same number of times in their last game (3) as Charlotte has all season. The Blue Devils are last in the ACC in turnover margin while Charlotte is 1st in that department among C-USA teams. The 49ers also lead their conference in time of possession. Not only is Duke w/o its star CB Mark Gilbert, starting center Will Taylor just had knee surgery. QB Chase Brice is completing only 55% of his attempts and has 11 interceptions. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Notre Dame/Georgia Tech (3:30 ET): Georgia Tech is two weeks removed from a 73-7 beatdown at the hands of Clemson. I played against them last week, thinking +3.5 was WAY too short of a number on the road vs. Boston College. I couldn’t have been more right. The Yellow Jackets lost 48-27 in Chestnut Hill in what was my top ACC play for October. However, be advised that the number of points GT allowed was a bit misleading. BC had a defensive TD + three scoring drives of less than 40 yards (all TDs). 

Notre Dame is playing in the ACC this year and off to a 5-0 start (four wins in conference play). They completely crushed Pitt last week with the offense putting up 45 points. But let’s not dismiss what the defense did, holding the Panthers to just three points and 44 yards rushing. The Fighting Irish lead the ACC in both scoring and total defense and are top 10 nationally in both categories. They’ve allowed only one opponent (Florida State) to score more than 13 points this year.

Maybe Notre Dame can ask Georgia Tech for some “tips” about facing Clemson because that’s who the Irish will face NEXT week. With such a huge game on deck (two Top 5 teams!), I seriously doubt Brian Kelly will want to show much offensively in a game his team should win easily. Remember it was only two weeks ago that the Irish scored only 12 points in a win over Louisville. So it’s not as if they’re immune to an “off day.” Georgia Tech’s defense has been pretty bad, leading to five straight Overs, but remember the theme of this 3-pack. They’ll benefit from ND being a little disinterested in this one. 8* Under Notre Dame/Ga Tech

8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State (12:00 ET): The theme of this 3-pack of totals will be readily apparent to those who have followed recent/season results. Bottom line is I’m looking to buck the Over trends from certain teams. One such example is Georgia State, who has gone Over in all four games this season. The last time I checked in with this team was two weeks ago and they gave up 59 points in a loss to Arkansas State (They scored 52 in that game). Crazy as it may sound, the Panthers’ defense isn’t as bad as that performance (or some other numbers suggest).

Georgia State is actually quite good at stopping the run. They are allowing just 97.0 YPG on the ground and 3.15 yards per carry, both of which are Sun Belt bests. This is particularly handy against a Coastal Carolina offense whose strength is an ability to run and will likely be starting a backup QB for the second straight week. In last week’s 36-34 win over Troy, Georgia State gave up two defensive touchdowns, skewing the scoreboard. Besides the wild Arkansas State game, the Panthers’ defense has not surrendered more than 30 points in regulation all season.

Coastal Carolina’s defense was outstanding last week as it held Georgia Southern to 14 points (none in the 2H) and only 218 total yards in a season-best effort. The Chanticleers have held every opponent to 27 points or less and are now 5-0 SU, earning themselves a Top 20 ranking for the 1st time. The defense is #26 in the country in yards allowed per game. With Fred Payton likely to start in place of the injured Grayson McCall for a second straight game, the offense isn’t as dynamic as it was at the start of the season. Even w/ the number coming down, this is still likely to close as the 2nd highest CC O/U line to date. 8* Under Coastal Carolina/Georgia State

8* Under Temple/Tulane (12:00 ET): These teams are a combined 7-1-1 Over, but remember the theme of the 3-pack. Temple has played only three times and every game has been pretty wild w/ a 39-37 come from behind win over USF sandwiched in between losses to Navy (31-29) and Memphis (41-29). Tulane is just 2-4 w/ the L5 games all going Over the total. The fewest number of total points scored in a Green Wave game the L4 weeks has been 71! But they’ve been up against some pretty great offenses and that’s not really the case here.

The last three games have seen Tulane face Houston, SMU and Central Florida, three of the top offenses in the American. The Green Wave certainly didn’t get a ton of stops in those games, but the defense has been very good at generating a pass rush (2+ sacks in every game besides Navy, who really doesn’t throw) and Temple really struggled in pass protection LW vs. Memphis. The Green Wave were just blitzed in the 2nd quarter by UCF last week (gave up 27 points) but really weren’t that bad otherwise (crazy as that may sound). They also shut out Navy for a half earlier in the season.

The strength of the Tulane offense is running the football, but note Temple is allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Tulane has scored a total of THREE defensive touchdowns the L3 games, so the offense isn’t as productive as those final scores might lead you to believe. The SMU game went to overtime and the game vs. Houston featured THREE non-offensive touchdowns. Take that “randomness” out of the equation, all of a sudden the games aren’t as high-scoring. Last year’s game was 29-21 (in favor of Temple) despite Tulane running for 200 yards. I expect both defenses to step up here. 8* Under Temple/Tulane

8* Maryland (7:30 ET): Maryland played a horrendous season opener, turning it over four times and losing 43-3 at Northwestern. They’ve got to shake that off as they prepare to welcome in a Minnesota team that’s off its own blowout loss. The Golden Gophers were thinking upset last Saturday night as they hosted Michigan, but had no answers defensively in a 49-25 defeat where they gave up 35 first half points and nearly 500 total yards for the game. So there is hope for the Terps Friday night and I’ll take the points.

It’s going to be tough for Minnesota to bounce back from last week. They’ll probably still win here mind you, but the team thought it could compete with Michigan and didn’t. A short week is not the remedy to get over a disappointing loss such as that one. Yes, I remember the Gophers did win 11 games LY but they also played a very soft schedule (by Big 10 standards). They clobbered Maryland 52-10 at home, which I’m sure is remembered by the Terrapins. HC PJ Fleck usually does a good job motivating his teams, but I do not believe Minnesota will be the more motivated team Friday night. 

Going back to last year, Maryland has now lost eight in a row by an average of more than 30 PPG. That’s not good for HC Mike Locksley, whose tenure began with two wins where the offense scored 142 points! Since then, the Terps are 1-10 SU with the only win coming against Rutgers. Even though it’s just his second season here in College Park, Locksley can ill-afford a blowout loss on national television. Despite the success under Fleck, this is more points than Minnesota is accustomed to laying on the road. They were just -16 at home vs. Maryland LY. 8* Maryland

10* Colorado State (10:00 ET): Last week saw the Mountain West Conference join the College Football season, although that did not include Colorado State, whose scheduled game vs. New Mexico had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. The Rams are expected to be an improved outfit this year under new coach Steve Addazio, who was fired after a solid (if unspectacular) tenure at Boston College. CSU actually outgained its foes in conference play last year despite a 3-5 SU record and should improve their -11 TO margin as well. I look for Addazio to have a successful debut Thursday night. Lay the short number. 

Fresno State really nosedived last season as they won just 4 games after B2B 10+ win seasons. That resulted in Jeff Tedford stepping down as HC and being replaced by former assistant Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs did play last week and I didn’t exactly see a lot of reasons for optimism as they were shredded on the ground by Hawaii in a 34-19 home loss. The Bulldogs gave up 323 yds rushing (6.1 YPC!) and 552 yards total. They also turned the ball over four times in a game where they were 2.5-pt favorites. 

The line has moved in CSU’s direction for this Thursday night affair and I have to say that I AGREE with the move. The Rams won here last season, 41-31, as a 2-TD underdog and have now covered five of the last seven meetings overall. They have a senior QB in Patrick O’Brien, who should have a good season. His top receiver from a year ago (Warren Jackson) is gone, but expect Dante Wright to step up and fill those shoes. CSU had an excellent pass defense a year ago (ranked 7th nationally). Not only did Fresno State score just 19 pts last week, but both TD drives were 33 yards or less. 10* Colorado State

8* West Virginia (5:30 ET): The Mountaineers have traditionally excelled as favorites, at least the few seasons they have. They are 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the role the L3 seasons, which includes last week’s push against Kansas where they were laying 21 points. The number is a lot more manageable this week, though WVU is on the road. But Texas Tech has really struggled in the early going and as mentioned in the Oklahoma State writeup, favorites of 4 pts or less are 20-9 ATS this season. Lay this short number as well. 

Really, Texas Tech’s “best” performance of the year came in a 63-56 overtime loss to Texas here in Lubbock. They blew a double digit 4Q lead in that one and ever since then it’s been all downhill. The Red Raiders lost 31-21 at Kansas State and then 31-15 at Iowa State two weeks ago. Their only victory of the season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then the defense surrendered 600 total yards and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion to seal an ugly 35-33 win. Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer that followed HC Matt Wells to Lubbock, is going to be making his first career start here. 

West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous this season as it is allowing 240.3 total yards per game and only 4.05 yards per play. They played a lot better in their only loss, 27-13 at Oklahoma State, than the final score shows. On offense, the Mountaineers are running the ball a lot better than they did a year ago, averaging almost 190 YPG behind Leddie Brown. Texas Tech’s defense has just been wretched, giving up almost 500 YPG and allowing all four opponents to score at least 31 pts. 8* West Virginia

8* Boston College (4:00 ET): Here’s another short number that has me a bit perplexed. Georgia Tech just got annihilated by Clemson last week, losing 73-7. Little is expected from the Yellow Jackets this season. Obviously, last week will be as “bad as it gets,” but I don’t think Boston College will have much problem winning this game in Chapel Hill. While they too were on the wrong end of a blowout last Saturday (40-14 vs. Va Tech), that result can easily be explained by the fact the Eagles turned it over five times. Lay the points here. 

Georgia Tech has two wins, both upsets, but neither are as impressive as they looked at the time. Opening the season with a 16-13 win at Florida State certainly turned some heads, but FSU was a much different team back then and still is nowhere as good as many thought they’d be. Two weeks ago, on a Friday night, the Yellow Jackets upset Louisville 46-27 in Atlanta. But they were actually outgained and a +3 TO margin was the story there. The other three games have seen GT get outscored 159-48. Yes, most of that was Clemson. But the Yellow Jackets also gave up 37 points to Syracuse. 

Boston College also has a couple of upset wins on its resume, theirs coming at the expense of Duke and Pitt. They also took North Carolina to the wire (lost 26-22) here at home. This will actually be just the 2nd time the Eagles have been favorites this season, the first being an unimpressive 21-16 win over Texas State. But they aren’t about to take a conference rival, one they haven’t beaten since 2007, lightly. When it’s not generating turnovers, the Georgia Tech offense can’t stop anybody. BC QB Jurkovec has gone over 300 yds passing in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see how GT shakes off last week’s loss. 8* Boston College

10* Under Alabama/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Alabama is one of only two teams in the country that’s played at least four games and has yet to see an Under. While an offense averaging 48.5 PPG (#2 in the country behind Texas, who is the other 4-0 Over team) has been a driving force, the Crimson Tide’s defense has surprisingly given up an average of 28.8 PPG, which is very high for a Nick Saban outfit. Of course, that number of PPG allowed is still heavily inflated by the Ole Miss game (where the Tide allowed 48 pts). The other three games have seen them allow no more than 24 and I think we’re in store for an Under this week.

This rivalry, played annually on the third Saturday of October, has not gone well for Tennessee in recent years. Their last win came back in 2006 (here in Knoxville), which was the year before Saban took over Bama. The Tide have been ranked in the top 8 for each of the last 12 meetings and incredibly this will be the 10th time under Saban they’ve been ranked #1 or #2 when facing Tennessee (were #1 each of the last four years). The Vols have had all sorts of trouble scoring on Saban’s defense, never scoring more than 21 and getting held to an average of just 12.3 PPG! 

Tennessee comes into this year’s matchup averaging just 23.5 PPG after it was held to only 7 points by Kentucky last week. It was the second week in a row they lost and were held below 300 total yards. They turned it over seven times during that stretch. Bama’s defense is going to get better on third down, it could rain Saturday afternoon in Knoxville and this is the highest total (by a lot) for any Tennessee game this season. For Alabama, only the Ole Miss game had a higher O/U line. While Bama can definitely score, if they are up big in the 2H, they’ll take their “foot off the gas” as per usual.  10* Under Alabama/Tennessee

9* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): Wake Forest has long been a “dangerous” team under Dave Clawson. It seems as if almost every year the Demon Deacons outperform expectations and that’s the sign of good coaching. While it was by no means an “impressive” showing, Wake covered for us in the season opener against Clemson. After that, they suffered a 3-pt loss at NC State. But now they are off B2B wins, squaring the record at 2-2 SU. The Deacons have scored a total of 148 points in the L3 games, making them a tough team to want to lay points against (as Virginia found out last week). This is a generous number you should take. 

Virginia Tech comes in off a 40-14 win over Boston College, but that final score was misleading in the sense the Hokies only had a slight +26 edge in total yards. How they were able to turn it into a blowout was thanks to FIVE BC turnovers. This Hokies’ defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping people as it is giving up 471.8 YPG. It was just two weeks ago that they gave up 56 points and 656 total yards. That was a road game. Va Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road as they also failed to cover as favorites in a 38-31 win over Duke. 

Wake Forest may not be North Carolina. But they are better than Duke, yet are getting basically the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers. Actually, this number has been steamed up a bit, which I don’t understand as my own power rankings have this one rated close to a pick ‘em! Ranked teams are a woeful 19-41 ATS this season when facing an unranked opponent and that is what we have here. Virginia Tech is just 7-19-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2012, including 4-9-1 under Justin Fuente. The Demon Deacons are 13-5 ATS vs. Top 25 teams under Clawson, including the cover vs. Clemson in the season opener. 9* Wake Forest

8* Oklahoma State (3:30 ET): As the only Big 12 team w/o a loss, #6 OK State is probably the conference’s lone chance of sending a team to the CFP. #17 Iowa State is also unbeaten in conference play, but suffered a loss to Louisiana in the season opener that now looks worse than it did a month ago. I’m a little surprised that in Stillwater this line is so low. Favorites have generally struggled ATS this year in College Football, but have covered 10 of the 11 matchups of Top 25 teams so far. Furthermore, chalk of 4 pts or less have gone 20-9 ATS including 9-2 as the home team. Lay the short number in this one.

The reason Iowa State is getting so much respect here probably has to do with the fact HC Matt Campbell has been tremendous in his career as a dog (32-14 ATS) and is 5-0 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents. But the Cyclones easily could be 1-3 SU instead of 3-1 right now. Not only did they lose outright (as a 13-pt home favorite) to Louisiana, but they were outgained at TCU (won 37-34) and trailed by double digits against Oklahoma. Really, the only “complete” performance we’ve seen from ISU was the 31-15 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that’s a team still winless in Big 12 play. This will - easily - be the best defense that will have faced to date. 

Oklahoma State has been off for three weeks (COVID-19 related, obviously), which has allowed for QB Spencer Sanders to get healthy. Sanders was injured early in the first game vs. Tulsa and the offense has certainly suffered in his absence. Yet the Pokes are still 3-0. They’ll only get better with Sanders back in the mix. The defense has allowed just 27 points in three games and is #1 in the country on third down, allowing only a 17% conversion rate. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (including 34-27 LY as a 10-pt dog in Ames) and are 5-3 ATS. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has played just two games in 2020 but both were against good teams (Oklahoma State, UCF) and they came out 2-0 ATS. They upset UCF as a 3 TD underdog and nearly did the same to OK State getting an even larger number (I had them in that game). The Golden Hurricane were scheduled to face a third straight ranked opponent (Cincinnati) last week, but that had to be shelved due to COVID-19. Now, off an unscheduled break, they finally get to face a lesser opponent in USF. 

South Florida looked as if they might pull off their own upset last Saturday in Temple. Getting double digits, they were ahead most of the game, but ultimately lost 39-37. That kind of effort was a “far cry” from what we’d seen from the Bulls previously. Besides Temple, they’ve been outscored 124-31 by FBS opponents. Every loss was by at least 20 points including one here at home to lowly East Carolina. The team’s only win this year was against The Citadel and they’ve allowed 39+ points in three of five games. 

While Tulsa may be unaccustomed to laying this kind of weight on the road, they should be more than ready for what shapes up as their easiest game to date. The Golden Hurricane’s defense has been much improved. After falling behind UCF early, they held the Golden Knights to just 10 points over the final three quarters. That was after holding OK State to just three points in the first three quarters of the season opener. This team was a lot better than its record showed LY and has a senior QB Zach Smith leading an offense that will continue to improve. Tulsa is simply a much better football team than USF. 10* Tulsa

10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Arkansas State comes into this weeknight Sun Belt showdown at 3-2 SU overall on the season. They are off their 1st conference win, a wild 59-52 shootout against Georgia State, which took place last Thursday. That was a real back & forth game where neither team led by more than 7 points. It was not just the second straight game that Ark State scored 50+, it marked the second time in three games that they gave up 50+! The Over is 4-0 their L4 games. 

Appalachian State hasn’t played in almost a month due to COVID-19 cancellations. Their last game, which took place on Sept 26, also saw them hang 50+ points. But it was against a FCS opponent (Campbell). The last time App State faced an FBS opponent, which was Marshall, they lost 17-7. Their only other game was a 35-20 win over Charlotte in the season opener. The Mountaineers haven’t covered one game all year (0-3 ATS) as they head into their conference opener Thursday night. This is the highest O/U line for any of their games thus far. 

Most are going to expect a high-scoring affair here. But these teams’ offensive numbers are both somewhat inflated due to facing a FCS opponent. Expect there to be a bit of a “fire” lit under the Arkansas State defense as the coordinator was fired shortly after the Georgia State game. Appalachian State very well could be rusty on offense after such an unusually long layoff. In three road games, Arkansas State hasn’t scored more than 35 points and twice they were held below 25. They are 12-5 L17 Under as an underdog. App State is allowing only 19.3 PPG. 10* Under Arkansas State/Appalachian State

10* North Texas (5:00 ET): This week’s top selection boils down to the simple fact that I don’t think Middle Tennessee deserves to be laying a TD to anyone. This is a team that opened its season with a pair of horrible losses, 42-0 at Army and 47-14 to Troy, the latter of which I cashed in on. I did then turn around and tell you to take the points as the Blue Raiders traveled to UTSA on a Friday night. They covered there (as 6-pt dogs), but still lost by two. Another close loss (20-17) followed, at the hands of Western Kentucky, leaving MTSU at 0-4. Finally, they won a game last week, though it was by just a FG over FIU.

The fact Middle Tennessee was a 6-point underdog to UTSA should tell you “all you need to know.” The market has shifted too far in the other direction following three consecutive ATS victories. I have these teams rated almost dead even, so even if factoring in a little bit of a home field edge for MTSU, this number should be a lot shorter. It will be the first time this season that the Blue Raiders are favored. I’m not going to try and convince you that North Texas is a great team, but the Mean Green do have a great offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number here. 

North Texas actually entered last week with a Top 10 rushing offense (in the country!) but were held to just 97 yards on 27 attempts as they fell behind early against Charlotte. It was the third straight game the defense gave up 41+ points. But the Mean Green still lead C-USA with 550 total YPG and 347 passing. QB Austin Aune is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Middle Tennessee is still giving up 35 PPG and has failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve been favored. Had the Blue Raiders not scored a GW TD in the final 80 seconds last week, they’d be entering this game at 0-5 and we’d have a much more accurate line. Take the points. 10* North Texas

9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas (3:30 ET): When Lane Kiffin was hired to be the head coach of Ole Miss, you had to figure there wouldn’t be many dull Saturdays in Oxford. But even by Kiffin standards, these first three games have been pretty insane (especially last week’s). There have been 86, 83 and 111 pts scored. However, some context should be provided as they’ve faced two top five teams (Florida & Alabama) plus the one win (over Kentucky) went to OT. Still, that’s a lot of scoring. The Over is obviously 3-0 in Ole Miss games. 

It was thought that by playing an all-SEC schedule this year, Arkansas would be having many LONG Saturdays. However, the Razorbacks seem to be vastly improved as they’ve won at Miss State and should have won at Auburn last week. Being 3-0 ATS (also covered vs. Georgia) is a nice way for HC Sam Pittman’s own SEC tenure to begin as they hadn’t seen many league wins in Fayetteville in recent years. Prior to Pittman taking over, the Hogs had lost 19 in a row in conference play.

This is the highest total on the board this week in College Football, which I can’t say surprises me. But the Ole Miss’ offense can’t possibly keep putting points on the board like it has and this is an obvious flat spot after the Alabama loss. The defense can only improve and facing one of the weaker SEC offenses is the perfect prescription. Arkansas is only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games. For a game to go Over this number, Ole Miss needs a suitable “dance partner” and the Razorbacks are simply NOT that team. 9* Under Ole Miss/Arkansas

8* Under Navy/East Carolina (12:00 ET): Last week marked the first time Navy played a “good” full 60 minutes of football. Their first win, 27-24 over Tulane, saw them have to battle back from a 24-0 halftime deficit. So it had to feel good to lead the whole way against Temple, even if the Midshipmen needed to stop a late 2 pt conversion for the win. Still, let’s not pretend “all is well” in Annapolis. The Middies were still outgained LW (407-299) and their two losses this year have come by a total of 85 points. 

East Carolina had its own problems the first two games (gave up 100 points!) but finally got into the win column LW with a 44-24 win over USF, who looks to be as bad as any team in the American Conference this season. Last week marked the first game this year that the Pirates didn’t turn the ball over (had 7 TO’s first two weeks). Like Navy, I don’t expect things to go as well offensively here as they did a week ago. ECU cannot again expect to the beneficiary of four scoring drives that start in opposing territory, which is what happened against USF. 

With these teams having combined to go 7-0 Over, it’s a little surprising that the total has come down. But this is a high O/U line for Navy. The previous high was last week (51.0) and none of their games have seen more than 60 pts scored. All of East Carolina’s games have been high-scoring, but like Navy, they look to control the clock. The Pirates actually lead the American in time of possession. Navy’s run game is not as effective as it’s been in years past (3.5 YPC) and they are averaging less than 260 total YPG. This will be a surprisingly low-scoring affair. 8* Under Navy/East Carolina

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Considering the performance we just saw Miami turn in at Death Valley, the line move here has me really perplexed. As I’d anticipated, “The U” got totally outclassed by top-ranked Clemson last Saturday night in a 42-17 defeat that really could have been much worse. The Hurricanes were outgained 550-210 and got one of their two TDs off a blocked FG attempt at the end of the half. Clemson also missed two field goals and had a WR drop a pass that would have resulted in a TD. 

The question now becomes - “how does Miami respond after such a humbling defeat?” Well, history really doesn’t seem to be on their side. First off, the last three ACC teams to lose to Clemson have all lost again the following week. Furthermore, since 2009, ranked teams are 9-25 ATS the week after facing the Tigers including 2-9 ATS if they are laying double digits. The ‘Canes are 2-0 ATS as DD chalk so far this season, but those games were against UAB and Florida State. Prior to this season, they’d been on a 2-14 ATS run when favored by seven or more points and last year they went 0-4 ATS w/ three outright losses as DD chalk. 

Like Miami, Pitt has taken a step back following a 3-0 SU start. They’ve lost B2B weeks, but those losses (BC, NC State) were both by one point. Basically, the Panthers are two plays away from being 5-0. They outgained NC State by more than 100 yards, but gave up a late TD pass. Then they lost in OT to BC on a missed XP. QB Kenny Pickett, who leads the FBS in passing yards, is dealing with an injured ankle. That may explain the line move, but HC Pat Narduzzi seemed hopeful that he would play. Regardless, Narduzzi is 18-9-1 ATS in road games including 5-1 as a DD dog. Take the points. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020.

SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards. 

SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane

10* Georgia State (7:30 ET): Georgia State has played only two games so far. They’ve covered both and probably should be 2-0 straight up as well. They opened the season by taking on Sun Belt favorite Louisiana. In that game, the Panthers jumped out to an early 2 TD lead. That’s pretty significant as they were 17-point underdogs! Unfortunately, they could not hold on, losing 34-31 in overtime. After a game with Charlotte was postponed (COVID), Georgia State wasn’t going to be denied against East Carolina. Despite being a 1.5-point dog (at home), the Panthers led by 25 in the 1st half and won 49-29.

Arkansas State has played four games. They are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Clearly, the Red Wolves’ most impressive performance to date was the win over Kansas State. They went to Manhattan and won 35-31 as a 15-point dog. Give ASU credit for that win, but they’ve also lost by 13 to Memphis and by 29 at Coastal Carolina. In both losses, the defense surrendered 500+ yards. Saturday’s 50-point effort doesn’t “carry much water” with me as it was against a FCS team (Central Arkansas). It was also only five days ago! So this is a very unusual, quick turnaround for the team laying points. 

Georgia State is much more rested coming into this Thursday night game. In its two losses, Arkansas State has surrendered over 200 rush yards. That’s notable with Georgia State having rushed for 480 yards in its two games. So far, the ASU defense ranks LAST among Sun Belt teams, giving up 456.5 yards and 36.8 points per game. Last year, Georgia State put up 52 points and 722 total yards (340 rushing) on this ASU defense. A team that’s led both games by DD, getting points, is a good value against a side that has barely led in any of its games vs. FBS opposition. 10* Georgia State

10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana (7:30 ET): Coastal Carolina is much improved this season as they have averaged a Sun Belt best 44.3 PPG during a 3-0 start. QB Grayson McCall, who has completed 67% of his pass attempts thus far while averaging a stunning 17.3 yds per completion, has added a passing dimension that the offense clearly lacked last season. But if it feels like the Chanticleers’ offense has overachieved thus far, that’s because it has. Now it’s set to face the Sun Belt’s best defensive and overall team, Louisiana. Look for CC’s offense to be slowed down in this one. 

The key for Coastal Carolina’s offense so far has been leading the country in time of possession (they play at a very slow tempo) and converting at what is an unsustainable rate on third down (6th in the country). Enter the Louisiana defense which was tops in the SBC a year ago and returned eight starters. So far the Ragin Cajuns are giving up less than 21 PPG in regulation and they are very good on third down. Coastal Carolina’s offense lacks explosiveness and hasn’t faced a defense this good all season, so yes, their numbers are set to come down pretty dramatically. 

Both teams are going to look to run the ball Wednesday night, so look for that clock to always be moving. Louisiana’s offense has been disappointing so far as it has averaged just 26.3 PPG in regulation. Since upsetting Iowa State in the opener, the Cajuns were very nearly upset themselves each of the L2 games. Coastal Carolina is also improved on the defensive side of the ball as they have 26 TFL and a Sun Bet-leading 13 sacks. Look for this one to stay Under. 10* Under Coastal Carolina/Louisiana

8* Clemson (7:30 ET): So this may seem like a lot of points to lay in a matchup between Top 10 teams, especially considering the fact underdog Miami is 3-0 ATS this year while favored Clemson is 0-3 ATS. But Clemson’s ATS mark certainly is in need of some context as the Tigers have had to lay 28 or more in every game thus far. I’ve played against them twice (at Wake Forest and vs Virginia), but now is the time to jump on board as October is typically the time when Dabo Swinney’s team REALLY starts to roll. Lay the points. 

I expect Clemson to be quite motivated for this game. That’s something you probably couldn’t say for any of the first three contests, yet the Tigers still won them all by at least 18 points. The closest margin came last week against Virginia and keep in mind Clemson gave up a late TD to make it seem closer than it actually was. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been asked to lay between 10.5 and 21 points. It is VERY rare to get them this low of a favorite at home. The last time they were -14 or less here was 2017!

Miami is likely feeling quite good about itself with its 3-0 start and QB D’Eriq King playing even better than anticipated. But the Hurricanes have been outscored 92-3 in the L2 meetings w/ Clemson. Since 2015, the Tigers have gone 29-15-1 ATS following the first weekend in October and averaged an awesome 40.2 PPG. Over half of its wins in those games have been by three touchdowns! It’s rare to say a 2 TD favorite is in a “buy low” spot but Clemson has covered six of its last seven in the month of October. 8* Clemson

9* Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Wildcats are 0-2, but there’s been some bad luck along the way + you’re talking about an SEC schedule. They actually outgained Auburn 384-324 in a 29-13 loss, but were -3 in turnovers, the most costly being an INT in the end zone late in the 1st half (totally changed the game). They also outgained Ole Miss last week 559-459, but missed the XP in OT and lost 42-41. That was a game they led by two touchdowns (at home) in the 2nd half. It’s time for UK to break through this week with a win.

The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward. It was an impressive way for Mike Leach to start his tenure in Starkville, but unfortunately (for him) that was followed with an outright loss to Arkansas (as 16.5-point home favorites) last week. That was the Hogs’ first SEC win since 2017 (snapped 20-game losing streak). The answer to “how good the Bulldogs are” probably lies somewhere between those two results. They aren’t as good as they looked vs. LSU nor are they as bad as last week’s result suggests. 

That this number has been bet down tells me that MSU is still getting too much credit for the upset of LSU. I don’t see Leach winning his first two SEC road games as a dog. Kentucky came into 2020 w/ high hopes for Mark Stoops’ 8th season in Lexington. The home team has won five straight in this particular SEC rivalry and covered the spread in the last six. There were some other ridiculous things that went against Kentucky last week (fumbled at goal line two plays after a player should have scored a TD - but was celebrating too early and got tackled!). A Miss State team that’s turned it over four times in both games is the opponent they need to get back on track. 9* Kentucky

8* Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS, but at least they picked up a SU win last week. They won 20-17 at Middle Tennessee and while that was a battle of winless teams, WKU will take it. They’d previously fallen to Louisville and Liberty. I made the mistake of taking the points with them in that Louisville game (they lost by 14 as a 12.5-pt dog) and then Liberty was clearly a team not properly priced by the oddsmakers as they beat WKU outright, 30-24, as 14.5-point dogs. Now that the market has clearly shifted AGAINST the Hilltoppers, I feel that now is the time to back them again (1st time since L’ville game). Take the points. 

Marshall is 2-0 SU/ATS with an upset of Appalachian State under their belt. That upset occurred in their last game, but it was also three weeks ago as the Thundering Herd have since fallen victim to a COVID-19 cancellation (they were supposed to play Rice last weekend). It was the second time this year Marshall has had a game cancelled. I expect “rust” to be a bit of a factor Saturday night in Bowling Green and this Thundering Herd team has often struggled outside of Huntington. 

Prior to the start of the season, I would not have expected Marshall to be favored in this game, let alone by this many points. The Herd are just 2 for its last 9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-13 ATS its L19 as a favorite, period. They are 1-4 ATS L5 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-6 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Meanwhile, WKU is 16-6 ATS its L22 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and 6-3 ATS L9 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Marshall passing game is still a question mark (QB Grant Wells was just 11 of 25 vs. App State). Despite losing each of the L3 years to Marshall (all by 7 pts or less), WKU is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this C-USA rivalry. 8* Western Kentucky

10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): This spread should be closer to four touchdowns rather than three. In picking this one, it’s that simple for me as I’ll trust my own power rankings. Florida State is a complete mess right now having lost to Georgia Tech (as a 13-point home favorite) and Miami (52-10) and needing to come from behind to defeat FCS Jacksonville State. Because of COVID, Notre Dame has been off the L2 weeks. As a top five team, I expect them to be “ready to go” Saturday night in South Bend. Lay the points. 

This game marks the first time EVER that Florida State has been a double digit dog in back to back games vs. FBS opponents. They were +11.5 at Miami FL, an outrageous line in retrospect, and got totally humiliated in that one. It was 38-3 at halftime. The last five times the Seminoles have been DD dogs, not only have they lost, they’ve lost by an average of almost five touchdowns per game. Just to illustrate how far this one proud program has fallen, it was a DD dog just 10 times (in 497 games) from 1978-2017. This will now be the eighth time they’ve been a DD dog in the L34 games! Needless to say, 1st year HC Mike Norvell has his work cut out for him in Tallahassee. 

FSU was down 21-7 last week at home to Jacksonville State. A change was made at QB and that resulted in five straight TD drives. But that was against an FCS team. Notre Dame has won 20 straight in South Bend including 52-0 over South Florida three weeks ago. QB Ian Book is completing 62% of his passes while RB Williams has 174 yards rushing and WR Tremble has 100+ yds receiving. The ‘Noles are totally outclassed here and I love the fact this number has dipped below -21. 10* Notre Dame