|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-13-16||Texas-San Antonio +19 v. Oregon State||64-72||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
Texas San Antonio
Texas San Antonio's has went through a bit of a down period, and will be catching a steep nineteen points on Sunday.
Oregon State has shown the ability to pull off upsets within the Pac-12 but are still a program that will skirt on the outside of the top fifty in college basketball.
In a forty minute game expect Texas San Antonio to fight and creep within this number late.
|11-13-16||Delaware v. Bradley -6.5||63-49||Loss||-105||11 h 38 m||Show|
Quick turn arounds don't happen too often at the mid-major level. Yet, former Green Bay Coach Brian Wardle has done that in his second season at Bradley. After severe struggles last season the team showed the type of spark at the tail end that you look for. Delaware on the other hand is a veteran team that does not have the right makeup of players to contend with the Braves. Grab Bradley here.
|11-12-16||Spurs v. Rockets +2||106-100||Loss||-110||4 h 45 m||Show|
After a five game road trip the Rockets host the Spurs. The Spurs shook off the cobwebs of their home woes last night defeating the Pistons. As expected Coach Poppovich utilized the Spurs bench to preserve minutes for tonight. That, a 4-0 away record, and revenge for the Spurs losing as 8.5 point underdogs to the Rockets serve as value on the Spurs side tonight. Yet, this Spurs team is not a crisp as it was to start the season. Grab the Rockets as slight underdogs here.
|11-12-16||Toledo v. St. Joe's -4||76-77||Loss||-105||11 h 21 m||Show|
Replacing two top scorers has left St. Joseph's vulnerable for offense. This seems troublesome against a MAC Toledo team that is solid in transition and half court sets. Yet an issue that hurt Toledo last regular season is their poor defense. This is where X's and O's can trump on court talent. St. Joseph's will have the proper game plan and cover the small number.
|11-11-16||Cal Poly v. Pepperdine -8||68-77||Win||100||22 h 9 m||Show|
Undoubtedly the loss of Stacy Davis to graduation for Pepperdine is an irreplaceable starter in a conference such as the WCC. Yet, small schools that retain three to four year players find their ways through checks and balances. Pepperdine boasts seniors Jett Raines, Lamond Murray Jr., and Jeremy Major. Cal Poly on the other hand is a program in decline from the promise they showcased two seasons ago. Grab Pepperdine.
|11-11-16||Utah State +5 v. UC-Irvine||72-56||Win||100||22 h 6 m||Show|
Cal Irvine is a respectable program that has done a solid job at recruiting under the radar recruits. They've also pulled off some quality upsets over the years. Yet, they've been slow out of the gates before getting things into gear. Losses to UofA, Texas-Arlington to name a few off the top of my head. Sometimes coaches will over emphasize a good start to a season and get into their own players heads. Grab the value here on Utah State.
|11-11-16||Pacific v. UCLA -20.5||80-119||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
UCLA once again meets Pacific a team last year they were 14.5-15.5 point favorites against. This year the line has climbed which would figure to bode to the underdog. Yet, in the game last year UCLA toyed with Pacific and handled them with ease defensively. Grab UCLA to pour it on from last year's showcase.
|11-11-16||Pistons v. Spurs -9||86-96||Win||100||5 h 5 m||Show|
The Detroit Pistons value thus far ATS has come with a strong home record. On the road they've been abysmal as their offense is lacking an identity. If it's not Andre Drummond in the post, it's usually an errant shot from Tobias Harris or a wing player. This plays into the hands of the Spurs that have a shocking home record below .500, but have also played teams such as the Jazz, Rockets, and Clippers. Grab the Spurs here.
|11-11-16||Knicks +5.5 v. Celtics||87-115||Loss||-110||4 h 4 m||Show|
New York Knicks +5.5
Everyone is waiting for the Celtics to showcase the skill we all expected. Expectations can be the biggest downfall early in the season for attractors ATS. Frankly, this Celtics team is not a top team in the East at the moment. Signs were shown in the playoffs and was the main reason Danny Ainge revamped the roster. The Knicks on the other hand have played three consecutive games of a tale of two-halves basketball that may detract people here on the road. Instead, grab the Knicks to carry over the momentum of a comeback home win against the Nets.
|11-11-16||Jazz v. Magic +5||87-74||Loss||-106||4 h 35 m||Show|
Orlando Magic +5
Utah's revamped team has shown to play better offense, but a long road trip appears to have worn on them. Lets not forget Gordon Hayward made his return against the Knicks, and the Jazz have implemented a deeper rotation minutes wise. It's the same scenario the Magic have struggled with, including a steep home loss to the Timberwolves in their latest game. Yet, grab the Magic here to showcase offense against the Jazz.
|11-11-16||Fordham v. East Tennessee State -6||59-96||Win||100||19 h 8 m||Show|
East Tennessee State was one of those teams last year that maybe had too much talent at their disposal. They upset teams such as Green Bay and Georgia Tech, but faltered when you least expected. Exposure at the end of the season saw a team that started to figure it out. Although Fordham has become a more respectable A-10 team this is an opening game they'll struggle in. Grab East Tennessee State.
|11-11-16||The Citadel v. College of Charleston -21.5||68-81||Loss||-110||19 h 7 m||Show|
Here is another steep number to start the season as College of Charleston takes on Citadel. Both of these schools are close in-state in South Carolina. The contrast of styles is one that oddsmakers have pointed out with a sizable line. Citadel's struggled over the years to put up points even during the new rules change last season. Grab Charleston's tempo and factor to win against a close college to pull through here.
|11-11-16||Louisiana Tech +9.5 v. South Carolina||76-85||Win||100||18 h 27 m||Show|
Sometimes turn arounds under a program with a respectable Coach can be a bit exaggerated. Frank Martin got the most out of his South Carolina team last year especially in non-conference play. Opening against Louisiana Tech is a much higher step up than opponents they faced in non-conference last year. Grab Louisiana Tech who has always been a team to play respectable teams in non-conference and fare well against the number.
|11-11-16||Vanderbilt -1.5 v. Marquette||71-95||Loss||-110||18 h 25 m||Show|
Both Marquette and Vanderbilt lost big man in the interior. You'd expect the advantage here to lie with Marquette as they have speedy guards and solid shooting. Yet, two years ago Coach Wojo struggled to lead his team in close games. That was a bump they cleared at a better rate last year. Expect Marquette's old ways of not closing games to lurk big on a small number. Grab Vanderbilt.
|11-10-16||Lakers v. Kings -4.5||101-91||Loss||-110||24 h 17 m||Show|
During the Kings road trip a week ago they could not get out of their own way in losses to the Heat, Magic, and Bucks. Yet a Sunday win against the Raptors in Canada has boosted their confidence. Sometimes teams return home from a long road trip and play sloppy in their first game. The Kings did so against a winless Pelicans team but still managed to cover the number. In a prime time network game people are always quick to remember their last visual of a team. The Lakers knocked off the Warriors in impressive fashion. Play the contrarian angle here on a Kings team refreshed and focused in a new arena.
|11-10-16||Pelicans +4.5 v. Bucks||112-106||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
New Orleans +4.5
The Pelicans continue a road trip after losing both games in California to the Warriors and Kings. 0-8 and traveling to Wisconsin figures to be a poor outcome for the Pelicans. Instead I've seen a team that has been in a handful of their losses. They were competitive in both games against Golden State, a game against Denver, their latest loss to the Kings, and played in two overtime games. The Pelicans may falter again in a close affair but they'll cover the number.
|11-09-16||Nets v. Knicks -8||96-110||Win||100||7 h 0 m||Show|
NY Knicks -8
The Nets come off an impressive home win last night as five point underdogs. They defeated the Timberwolves with efficient scoring from a plethora of players. Traveling from Brooklyn to Manhattan figures to be as minuscule of a road factor in a back to back scenario. Yet, I like the Knicks veteran lineup and leadership to get back on track from an early Sunday loss to the Jazz. Grab the Knicks here.
|11-08-16||Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2.5||107-108||Loss||-115||8 h 30 m||Show|
Attraction on Memphis is hard to calculate. They've dealt with injuries upon injuries and now Mike Conley is questionable for Tuesday's game. Chandler Parsons return on Saturday did not fare as well as planned as he went 0-8 from the field. With scoring balance in doubt the notion would be to take the Nuggets here who just put up 123 on the Celtics. Yet, this is a conference matchup where both teams have advanced scouting on each other's rosters. Take the Grizzlies to wear down a Nuggets team that is playing their sixth of seventh road game to start the season.
|11-06-16||Suns +3 v. Lakers||108-119||Loss||-110||27 h 38 m||Show|
The Lakers are at their highest value ATS since Kobe's last healthy season. After a big win over the Warriors in front of a national televised audience the Lakers must maintain focus with a young team combined with new Coach Luke Walton. I expect both the Lakers personnel on the court to have a letdown but also Coach Walton after an emotional high defeating his ex-team. An added bonus value here is the fact that the Suns are on on of the oddest road trips in recent years. Phoenix traveled to New Orleans on Friday and now back to LA before a Tuesday game in Portland. A noteworthy fact pointed out by long-time Suns color commentator Eddie Johnson, who does not ever recall a trip as such. Yet, the Suns offense seems to be gaining steam as Earl Watson configures more minutes for TJ Warren, Brandon Knight, and rookie spark plug Marquesse Chriss.
|11-06-16||Nuggets +7 v. Celtics||123-107||Win||100||3 h 11 m||Show|
An East coast road trip figures to detract value on the Denver Nuggets. In fact last year the Nuggets were down by twenty points in the fourth quarter at Boston before rallying back for a backdoor cover. This is a scenario where you would expect an improved Boston roster to thrive at home. Instead grab the value on the Nuggets having learned last years matchup.
|11-06-16||Jazz -1 v. Knicks||114-109||Win||100||18 h 59 m||Show|
Utah here as a small favorite has all the variables to take the home Knicks. First, the Knicks are riding an emotional high as ex-Bulls D. Rose and Joakim Noah upset the red-hot Bulls in Chicago. Utah, on the other hand detracted value with a poor home loss to the Spurs. Flying across the country to New York for an early AM game with daylight savings change over is another variable to side with the Knicks. Instead, we'll take the Jazz who have been a hot-potato offensively but should come to life against a poor Knicks defensive team.
|11-05-16||Wolves v. Thunder -5||92-112||Win||100||20 h 52 m||Show|
After a big letdown loss against the Warriors, the public/sharps likely will look to fade the Thunder here against a Timberwolves team that has great depth. Especially with the fact that this Timberwolves team upset a better OKC roster as 14 point underdogs last March. Yet, this Timberwolves team is faltering to find offensive balance with a solid inside-outside game. Part of that has been due to utilization of Kris Dunn/Tyus Jones who are adjusting to the NBA. Grab the Thunder to bounce back nicely and improve to 5-1.
|11-03-16||Kings +1.5 v. Magic||94-102||Loss||-105||11 h 30 m||Show|
Sacramento continues their road trip traveling to take on the Magic Thursday. While Sacramento did run out of gas in their last game, I still like the floor spacing and offense they've showcased thus far. Orlando on the other hand did show life in a comeback win against the 76ers. Still, the better team chemistry lies with the Kings who should get enough from Cousins/Gay and complimentary scoring to get the cover Thursday.
|11-02-16||Blazers v. Suns +3||115-118||Win||100||6 h 50 m||Show|
Thus far the Trailblazers and Suns have been teams unable to play four full quarters of basketball to start the season. Portland's came back to defeat the Jazz/Nuggets while faltering to higher caliber opponents in the Clippers and Warriors. Phoenix on the other hand has been competitive after a blowout opening loss to the Kings. Yet, this is a spot where a young Suns team can show some growth. Last year to start the season they lost twice to the Trailblazers in the early portion of the season. Look for the Suns to capitalize from an ATS standpoint as the Trailblazers play in a back to back scenario.
|10-31-16||Bulls v. Nets +6.5||118-88||Loss||-115||5 h 43 m||Show|
Were aiming for a value play on Monday. Chicago comes in with two victories over revamped quality teams in the Pacers and Celtics. The value here is opponents based. Brooklyn has also played the Celtics and Pacers to start the season and faced steep deficits in both. They did rally to beat the Pacers in the exact same spread as tonight's six point line. Look for backers to over react to the Bulls blowout win over the Pacers on a line that looks 'pleasing'. Grab the Nets.
|10-30-16||Jazz v. Clippers -8||75-88||Win||100||18 h 12 m||Show|
The Clippers and Jazz both have done an excellent job at building their rosters with depth. That's not easy to find throughout the NBA. From an ATS standpoint though the Clippers appear to have bought in to playing team defense. It's a catalyst that combined with their potent scoring is worthy of backing as a steep home favorite. Grab the Clippers.
|10-29-16||Blazers +2 v. Nuggets||115-113||Win||100||23 h 16 m||Show|
Denver at home is always an x-factor ATS. In an odd scenario the Nuggets have had three days off since their first game in a victory over the Pelicans. The rest and first game at home our factored into this spread. After a loss to the Clippers in which the Trailblazers were outplayed in bench points, one has to wonder if the Nuggets deep roster will give the Blazers the same fits. Instead, side with the cohesive starting lineup edge of the Blazers who should benefit from a bit of rust from the Nuggets.
|10-29-16||Hawks -7 v. 76ers||104-72||Win||100||15 h 47 m||Show|
Change over isn't supposed to be a seamless transition. Yet, the Hawks elevated pieces that were in place with point guard Schroder, forward Mike Muscala, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Interior experienced advantage with Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap will be too much for four quarters for the youth of the 76ers.
|10-28-16||Magic v. Pistons -3.5||82-108||Win||100||6 h 52 m||Show|
Both Detroit and Orlando had awful outings in their first matchup. Yet, the Pistons fought back to some degree against the high scoring Raptors. Orlando, on the other hand looks like they have on-court chemistry issues combined with adjusting proper five man rotations. Grab the Pistons who will use their home court edge and sideline experience of Stan Van Gundy.
|10-26-16||Hornets -2 v. Bucks||107-96||Win||100||19 h 55 m||Show|
The Bucks are certainly a team on the rise that looks to return to form of two seasons ago. Now healthy for the most part they seem poised to challenge for a bottom seed. Yet, Charlotte is a team that blended well last season as their youth began to shine next to Kemba Walker. The losses of Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee, and Al Jefferson may be a detractor but I believe the new depth is ready to step up. Grab the Hornets.
|10-26-16||Heat +4 v. Magic||108-96||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
In the span of three years the Heat have went from fielding LeBron, DWade, and Bosh to having a team expected to miss out on the playoffs. Pat Riley made no qualms about waiting to attract prime free agents, besides retaining Hassan Whiteside. Orlando on the other hand seems ready to ascend forward with the youth at their disposal. In fact, they added veterans Serge Ibaka, Jeff Green, and Bismack Biyombo, and Jodie Meeks in the offseason. Yet, for an opening game look for Coach Spoelstra's defensive minded team philosophy to trump the home Magic. Grab the Heat.
|10-25-16||Jazz v. Blazers -5||104-113||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
Both the Trailblazers and Jazz made off-season moves to bolster their rosters. Last season Utah was a team that had sporadic play last due to injuries and unsettled play at point guard. They believe they've alleviated those issues which should elevate their play based on solid defense. Yet, Portland is one of those teams that goes on surges versus spurts offensively. Grab the Trailblazers here.
|07-15-16||Pelicans +4 v. NBA D-League||76-88||Loss||-110||2 h 39 m||Show|
New Orleans Pelicans
We're seeing slight line movement towards the NBA D-League Select team. And for good reason as the Pelicans have lacked defensive intensity and their star has struggled to shoot at a high percentage in Buddy Hield.
Yet, I was not impressed with the D-League Select's effort in-person against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Body language shifted quarter to quarter to a mindset of lost focused.
That happens in these tournaments as the D-League select is filled with players that know their roles next season.
The Pelicans roster may be below average for summer league but I expect them to have the higher level of effort for four quarters. Take the Pelicans.
|07-12-16||Heat v. Suns -4||80-71||Loss||-110||5 h 53 m||Show|
Yesterday, the Miami Heat sat out both Josh Richardson and Justice Winslow as they've played extended time in the Orlando and beginning of the Vegas summer league.
That didn't stop the Heat from playing well yesterday in a blowout win over the Denver Nuggets.
Keep in mind this Heat roster will likely add several summer league players as they look to fill out a roster that has only a few players signed for next season.
Still, I like the Suns organization in the summer league. They're giving key minutes to their youth in Devin Booker/Tyler Ulis and first-round pick Dragan Bender.
They also have solid depth with Kyle Kuric and Troy Williams in case the Suns decide to rest key players. Grab the Suns to take care of business Tuesday.
|07-11-16||Cavs +4.5 v. Wolves||99-68||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
Both the Cavaliers and Timberwolves sit at 0-2 in the NBA Summer League.
Both have been competitive in close narrow losses, yet at the end of today one will be 0-3.
Minnesota's future back court with Tyus Jones and Kris Dunn have played above par. In college both were main facilitators on a daily basis for their respective teams in Duke/Providence.
Yet, summer league is a different caliber that bodes well to scorers and an open court style.
Cleveland has that with natural scorers in Kay Felder, DeAndre Liggins, and Jordan McRae.
The also have former St. John's do it all performer in Sir-Dominic Pointer that suits summer league style perfectly.
|07-10-16||Jazz v. Pelicans -1||79-72||Loss||-110||5 h 10 m||Show|
This line has come down in favor of the Utah Jazz. Utah have a mix of talent from different teams in the Orlando summer league that include Treveon Graham, Mike Tobey, Aaron Craft, and Jazz forward Trey Lyles.
New Orleans on other hand has a nice blended mix of guards that should be able to score in the open court with Ryan Boatright and Anthony Barber.
They also have first round pick Buddy Hield who should be anxious to get in on the action.
Concerns with rebounding may be there for New Orleans but I'll believe they'll be able to combat that with their scoring and forcing turnovers.
Grab the value on the line movement here and take the Pelicans.
|07-08-16||Kings +4 v. Raptors||47-88||Loss||-110||6 h 25 m||Show|
Today, we'll gravitate to the Las Vegas Summer League, which figures to be a fun-filled eleven days.
Sacramento comes in as a two baskets underdog against the Toronto Raptors.
On paper the main reasons for this have to do with the Kings getting late roster additions and a new coaching change over with Joerger taking over for George Karl.
Yet, talent wise I like the Kings presence with athletic position players all over the court (Elgin Cook, Cauley Stein, D Jones, R Ledo, D Dukan to combat the size and veteran presence of the Raptors.
|07-07-16||Pistons +6 v. Heat||71-58||Win||100||3 h 17 m||Show|
Detroit has been devalued in Orlando as I had them as the top team overall.
Today, they'll face their toughest challenge against a Miami Heat team that continues to feature both Justice Winslow and Josh Richardson getting quality minutes.
That likely will continue with the fact the Dwayne Wade has signed with the Bulls.
Yet, were playing the spread here and we'll jump on a three point spread line movement from three to six in the Heat's favor.
Detroit's stayed close and won all their games thus far with a solid young core.
They'll give the Heat a challenge but expect the Heat's squad to over power and close above the closing number of six.
|07-05-16||Clippers -5 v. Knicks||84-92||Loss||-115||5 h 30 m||Show|
The Clippers have under performed in their first two games against the Heat and Thunder.
Before the tournament I had them ranked as the second best team overall and the Knicks the worst.
Nothing has changed with the Knicks who have been blown out their first two games.
Perhaps they'll be more competitive here against a winless Clippers team.
Yet, look for the Clippers to finally start playing a higher level of basketball after showcasing glimpses in their latest loss to the Thunder.
Grab the Clippers
|07-04-16||Mavs v. Orlando White||85-92||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
Orlando Magic White
Today, we'll take the Orlando Magic White against the Dallas Mavericks.
Both had a day off Sunday after playing their first games on Saturday. Saturday, the Mavericks lost a heart breaker to the OKC Thunder, while the Orlando Magic White blew out their opponent in Charlotte.
I expect the balance of the Orlando Magic White to continue to excel today. In the interior they may have the best scorer of the Orlando Summer League with Arinze Onuaku.
They also under achieved from the perimeter in their initial game.
Expect even more scoring from them against a Dallas team that may get support off a close last second loss in their first matchup against OKC.
Take Orlando Magic White.
|07-03-16||Clippers v. Thunder -5||72-81||Win||100||7 h 40 m||Show|
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder rode Cameron Payne, Mitch McGary, and others to a thrilling last second victory over the Dallas Mavericks.
Flashy scoring paved the way as the roster did just enough to out duel a Mavericks team that fought hard down eight points late in the third quarter.
The Clippers on the other hand came into the Orlando tournament with the second-best roster in my opinion.
Yet, sometimes a roster and team synergy are two vastly different elements.
I did not like the team chemistry showcased in yesterday's loss to the Heat.
Look for their flat effort to continue Sunday and for the Thunder's dynamic scoring to outpace the Clippers.
|07-03-16||Pacers v. Hornets +5.5||70-80||Win||100||3 h 31 m||Show|
Yesterday we hit on the Pacers who were shockingly underdogs. Today, they find themselves a favorite against a Charlotte team that fell short to Orlando White by five points.
I like the effort Orlando White showcased in yesterday's near comeback.
Today they'll take on an Indiana team riding an extreme high from Joseph Young, Glenn Robinson III, and Rakeem Christmas.
All three in my opinion did enough in game one to settle their NBA nerves down (rosters for next season).
Expect a come down to Earth game from the Pacers and for the Hornets to capitalize. Grab the Hornets.
|07-02-16||Orlando Blue v. Pacers +2.5||66-93||Win||100||3 h 41 m||Show|
This is an actual game I anticipated earlier in the week. On paper I believed the Pacers should be 4.5-5 point favorites.
With the Orlando Blue team favored by three points I'll jump on the other side on this one.
The Pacers made some key moves in free agency and via the draft that may divide up the relationship with young talent in Rakeem Christmas and Joe Young.
They're literally on the clock to prove their worth.
Coupled with Stephan Hicks an underrated scorer from Cal-State Northridge, Julian Jacobs (USC), and Nate Wolters (former Bucks draft pick) and Indiana should have no problems scoring.
This is a day one oddsmaker misread in my book. Take the Pacers
|07-02-16||Hornets v. Orlando White -3||74-79||Win||100||1 h 32 m||Show|
The second game in summer league play for Saturday features a veteran laden Orlando White team against a young Hornets squad.
Orlando's veterans include 30 year old Justin Dentmon and a carry overs from the Atlantic 10 in Patricio Garino, Treveon Graham, and Jordan Sibert.
On the other hand the Charlotte Hornets have young talent including Bobcats draft choice last year in Aaron Harrison along with UNLV's early exit in Goodluck Okonoboh.
Look for the veterans in Orlando White to use their poise to buckle down defensively when needed and close out this game in style to cover a small three point margin.
|06-19-16||Cavs +5 v. Warriors||93-89||Win||100||29 h 50 m||Show|
While value seems to be on Golden State for game seven, I'll side with the Cavaliers again here.
History is against them as they look to become the first team in history to win a championship down three games to one.
Yet, this series changed after game two. Cleveland has found the balance needed defensively and offensively with a shortened rotation.
Keep in mind Warriors Coach Steve Kerr is in just his second year. He started the season out with a back injury.
This is the first time he has seen his team flounder a bit amidst adversity. Unlike against the Thunder the chemistry offensively has been missing. That's a challenging issue when relying on depth is your balance.
The x-factor for Cleveland is Kevin Love as he has to respond in game seven. After a dismal performance in game five and a foul plagued seven minutes in game six, I think he'll have the mindset necessary.
Grab Cleveland to become the second sport to witness a team knock off a strong regular season team (Panthers 4.5-5)
|06-16-16||Warriors v. Cavs -2||101-115||Win||100||29 h 33 m||Show|
The Cavaliers have suddenly went from dead in the water at three games to one to a game away from forcing a game seven.
They've done so by buying in to Coach Tyronn Lue's defensive game plan for an entire game.
In fact, if not for a breakdown in the third quarter of game four, this could have been a closeout game for the Cavaliers.
The lure of Draymond Green's return coupled with the Cavaliers depleted bench poses quick reaction to buy the Warriors here.
Since game two Matthew Dellevedova has seen his minutes decrease and Channing Frye did not play a single minute in game five. This combined with Kevin Love's putrid two point performance in game five is worrisome.
Yet, I believe the confidence had already been there for the Cavs as a defense, and now is there offensively with the combination duo of Irving/Lebron.
This is a case where depth can be trumped by elite level play from Lebron/Kyrie. Grab the Cavs in game six.
|06-13-16||Cavs +7 v. Warriors||112-97||Win||100||39 h 7 m||Show|
We've now won three of four Finals plays as we look to grab number four in game five.
Golden State used defense and timely offense from their back court to spurn a solid effort from the Cavaliers in game four.
The win by Golden State has undoubtedly shifted value exponentially on the Warriors. They won 73 regular season games and were dominant at home.
Yet, I'm not discounting the Cavaliers just yet.
They had a solid game plan that worked to perfection in game three and for the majority of game four.
Ragged offense cost them a chance to even the series combined with uncanny offense from the Warriors.
In the NFL sometimes scrambling quarterbacks can go off even though defenses know it's coming. One big run leads to others as containment gets unraveled from missed assignments.
That's what I saw in game four. Cleveland lost containment of Curry/Thompson in the third quarter and as a result completely unraveled.
Instead of expecting the Cavaliers to lay an egg on the road, look for them to play a strong game and keep containment for a better amount of time in game five on the Splash Brothers.
|06-10-16||Warriors +2 v. Cavs||108-97||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
Golden State Warriors
The Cavaliers did a great job in showcasing the ability to step up on their home court with improved defense in game three.
Limiting both the Warriors starters and bench a consecutive game though will be a tough task.
I'm not sold on continuing to see Irving and JR Smith thrive for four quarters, and more worried about the Cavs limited depth.
Coach Steve Kerr of the Warriors defeated the Thunder with series adjustments and tonight we'll see a few more tweaks.
This should be a great inspired effort once again from the Cavaliers, but they're still under manned to cover two consecutive games.
Grab the value on the Warriors to cover the number in game four.
|06-08-16||Warriors v. Cavs +1.5||90-120||Win||100||32 h 5 m||Show|
Cleveland is starting to look more and more like a team that can't contend with the West.
After a great playoff run they're looking in no form of resemblance of what we saw in the first three rounds.
While Golden State has surged in the last ten days to the level we saw during their record breaking regular season.
Yet, traveling to Cleveland I think we'll awaken the Cavaliers somewhat to stave off an improbable 3-0 deficit.
They showed in game one they can play defensively with the Warriors as well as in the first quarter of game two. Problems continue to lie with the Cavaliers bench which just is getting destroyed by the Warriors potent bench.
Challenging the starters to do more has to be an optimal goal from Coach Tyronn Lue.
Look for the Cavaliers to get the offense they need and to get a better level of defense all around to grab game three.
|06-05-16||Cavs +7 v. Warriors||77-110||Loss||-115||45 h 39 m||Show|
Market value is always a big indicator of where to go ATS. Prior to the playoffs the Warriors were -330 to win the NBA title.
A subpar post season from their regular season standard dropped them to just -220 over the Cavaliers.
Now after one game series odds have leapt to -400. Nearly double!
That's a steep leap from a one game result, that stemmed from an impressive effort from the Warriors bench.
I don't expect the Cavaliers to over react as they played their defensive game plan extremely well on Warriors guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
Areas of growth offensively are there as the Cavaliers need to shoot the ball better and limit their turnovers.
In my opinion seeking the extra point from game one's ATS spread is a golden opportunity.
|06-02-16||Cavs v. Warriors -5.5||89-104||Win||100||28 h 0 m||Show|
While the rested Cavaliers have played better overall in the playoffs than the Warriors, it's a new beginning with a fresh slate in game one.
Suddenly the Warriors have won three consecutive playoff games after being just 9-5 in the playoffs.
Were starting to all know that Steph Curry is not 100 percent. That has limited the Warriors potent offense somewhat.
Yet, the Warriors have found new ways to flourish by turning up their defense another level.
That's the key in game one as the Raptors showed that defensive energy can frustrate the Cavaliers, especially on the road.
While the Cavaliers may play a better first half, there will come a time where the Warriors utilize their home court and defense to go on a patented surge.
Take the Warriors in game one.
|05-30-16||Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors||88-96||Loss||-115||10 h 10 m||Show|
Surely the Thunder would have liked to win the West Finals on their home floor.
Yet a series is seven games and as professionals they must handle the task of taking on the Warriors in Golden State.
Do I expect the Thunder to adjust their game six game plan?
No, similar to boxing the Warriors in desperation mode went for a few haymakers late and landed the knockout blow.
Eight fourth quarter three pointers keyed by Thompson's 41 points did the trick.
While many want to point the blame on another Thunder fourth quarter collapse I saw it as just a superb finish by a championship team.
Yet, expect the Thunder to regroup and have extra emphasis in a critical do or die game seven.
Don't forget Kevin Durant is an impending free agent setting the stage for a possible exit. Take the Thunder plus the points.
|05-28-16||Warriors v. Thunder -2.5||108-101||Loss||-110||19 h 43 m||Show|
Oklahoma City Thunder
Market value is a great determiner in key spots and game six is one between the Warriors and Thunder.
Oddsmaker's tried their best to play catch up to the Thunder's raised play has seen this line move to 2.5.
Yet, I fully believe this is the line that should have been offered in game three.
Therefore, value is still on the Thunder's side.
Yes, the defending NBA champions have been resilient and will be a tough out.
But I clearly expect the Thunder to answer the Warriors punches on their home floor.
Golden State is in the underdog role and deservedly so as they're not the 73 win regular season team we witnessed.
Grab the Thunder to take the series in game six.
|05-27-16||Cavs -6 v. Raptors||113-87||Win||100||14 h 47 m||Show|
What does Toronto have left in the tank for game six?
They've shown all throughout the playoffs that when you believe they're down for the count, they're not.
Yet, this series has been more of a theme to Cleveland.
When Cleveland dictates their style of play they've cruised over the Raptors.
Albeit those wins were at home, which has some believing in the Raptors in game six.
I don't see it as the Raptors looked like a team on their last leg against the Miami Heat.
Cleveland got in their own way in prior games in Toronto. This time they'll treat this game in fashion of games 1-2 and 5.
|05-26-16||Thunder v. Warriors -7||111-120||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
Being on Oklahoma State's side over the last few weeks has delivered plenty of profits for us.
Yet, on Thursday I can't bypass a Warriors team that went 73-9 in the regular season.
Golden State needs their team to uplift them with Steph Curry not at 100 percent. They did so against the Rockets and Trailblazers and surely have the capability to do so on their home floor in a must-win situation.
Oklahoma State has had great success but tackling a beast as such as the Warriors in this key spot is troublesome.
I for one did not agree with game one or two's spreads of 8 and 7.5. But in this instance the line may be too low and is high value off the Thunder's last two wins and Curry's healthy percentage.
Grab the Warriors.
|05-25-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||78-116||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
The past two games in Toronto featured the Raptors come together like they haven't the entire playoffs.
They frustrated the Cavaliers perimeter offense and found their rhythm offensively.
It took Cleveland nearly two entire games to adjust offensively from their perimeter playoff attack to more of a true regular season root.
At the end of the third quarter in game four, Cleveland finally stopped having the ball stick on the perimeter and moved the ball fluidly. The result was eleven straight made field goals in the fourth quarter.
As great as the Raptors turn around in the series has been there is no denying that this series hasn't been played to the level of a series tied at two games apiece.
|05-24-16||Warriors v. Thunder +2||94-118||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
Swayed value has finally occurred as the OKC Thunder have soared with dynamic performances against the Spurs and now Warriors.
This is a spot that can be tricky against the defending champions, yet they're at home and have thriving momentum.
I like the system changes Donovan has implemented, and clearly Durant/Westbrook have showcased they're on an extra level.
Look for the Thunder to carry over momentum and put the Warriors in a tough spot. Grab the Thunder.
|05-23-16||Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors||99-105||Loss||-107||24 h 44 m||Show|
We'll call game three a semi let down for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
They never got in rhythm offensively and lost focus on the defensive end. It was a flat performance against a team deservedly in a conference final.
Yet, Toronto's teased us all playoffs with one or two dynamic games every series.
I do expect Tyronn Lue to come back with a defensive plan to offset the Raptors transition game.
Offensively the Cavaliers should get back to the level we've seen all playoffs. Keep in mind the Raptors are a dinged up team and have been prone to severe offensive droughts throughout the playoffs.
Grab the Cavaliers.
|05-22-16||Warriors v. Thunder +3||105-133||Win||100||69 h 5 m||Show|
Golden State ignited in a big way game two which may cause people to forget game one.
OKC just did not have the counters offensively to stay in such a game on the road.
Do it all point guard Russ Westbrook had just a lone rebound which is not typical of the All-Star. Another anomaly for the Thunder was allowing fifteen offensive rebounds to the Warriors to just seven of their own.
Back at home I expect a much more balanced attack offensively and defensively that we've seen from the Thunder this post season.
Golden State's value ATS is still undetermined against a new and improved Thunder.
Take the value on the home dog.
|05-21-16||Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors||84-99||Loss||-109||3 h 41 m||Show|
Toronto's home court ability has helped them in the first two rounds.
Yet their offense has been a no-show thus far against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In game two yet again they allowed an end of quarter run that proved to be the difference ATS and for the game with a Cavaliers 14-2 run before half.
Give Coach Casey credit as he has tried tweaking the lineup in a plethora of ways.
While they may extend into the second half playing close with the Cavaliers, I do not anticipate them finishing the game off.
Take the Cavs to pull off a road win ATS Saturday.
|05-18-16||Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors||91-118||Loss||-105||18 h 23 m||Show|
Oklahoma City +8.5
This is a spot where Golden State assuredly has to respond on their home floor.
The pressure is on the defending national champion to not go down 2-0 before heading to Oklahoma City.
I'm not saying that will lose but the value still is on the Thunder's side.
They played a below standard game from my eyes and still prevailed outright in game one. There's a lot of improvement to expect in game two from a defensive stand point as well as from stars Kevin Durant/Russ Westbrook offensively.
The Warriors are who they are. They're going to feed off their crowd and go on igniting offensive surges as they thrive with small ball basketball.
OKC is fine with that tempo and realizes those spurts are inevitable.
They're able to combat runs with key stretches of getting to the free throw line and increasing their defensive intensity when needed.
I was stunned to see this line increase from game one. Now we've surpassed regular season odds of eight points which is mind numbing. Take the points yet again with the Thunder.
|05-17-16||Raptors v. Cavs -10.5||84-115||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
Oddsmakers have surely made you think with a steep increase in value on the Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers meet a second team in the playoffs that have had their number in the regular season as Toronto defeated them twice.
Yet, this is a different Raptors team. Health is of concern with several players playing hurt and key big man in Valuncianus out with an ankle injury.
My main concern with the Raptors is the several player adjustments they've made in the past two rounds.
Against the Pacers Nolan Powell was taken out of the starting lineup. Against the Heat Biyombo was inserted due to injury to JV, meanwhile veteran Luis Scola did not play entirely after registering a 21 minute average in the regular season.
All of these adjustments have forced even higher pressure on the Raptors Lowry and DeRozan the strength of their bench to fade.
Grab the Cavaliers to bypass the rust of being off for eight days.
|05-16-16||Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors||108-102||Win||100||17 h 11 m||Show|
Subscribers should not be fooled here. I've talked about the Thunder's edge ATS for a gamut of games now. Oddsmaker's have failed to adjust.
The Warriors are a strong home team and the defending NBA champion.
Regular season numbers would showcase that the Warriors should be favored at the current line of 7.5 as they swept the Thunder three games to none.
Yet, this is a different Thunder team that is gaining confidence as they extend into the playoffs.
Billy Donovan's trust in his players is awfully similar to the trust Steve Kerr bestows on his Warriors.
Don't forget the Warriors missed out on Steph Curry's play in spots in both the first and second rounds.
The Thunder are healthy and have played well against Golden State this season. One loss the Thunder came back after being down eighteen in the third quarter and another Steph Curry nailed his miracle three pointer.
Grab the Thunder to match up well in game one as a half point differential from the regular season is a bit odd here.
|05-15-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||89-116||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
The Heat have rode the magic of great coaching and veterans to get to this stage of seven games.
They're a tough group but game seven is where the cream always rises to the top.
Frankly, I believe this series should have been over in five games by the Raptors.
For whatever reason they've continued to carry over rusty play from their Pacers series.
Luckily for them the Heat are at a high disadvantage without Hassan Whiteside. Coach Spoelstra quickly made adjustments in game six to a smaller lineup that thrived.
Yet, they also held the lead from the first quarter on.
On the road against a deficit could spell trouble quickly for the Heat.
How much more can the Heat get out of Wade, Dragic, Winslow, and Richardson?
The Raptors have thrived attacking the basket in games five and six since the loss of Whiteside. Look for that to continue in game seven and the rise of play from Lowry/DeRozan to shine.
|05-13-16||Raptors v. Heat -4||91-103||Win||100||6 h 38 m||Show|
Miami Heat 546
The grueling series between the Heat and Raptors has been tough to watch from an offensive standpoint.
Miami seemed to falter in game five without Whiteside in the interior but still came close to pulling off another road win.
That's worrisome to me on Friday as the Raptors still don't look fluid enough offensively to finish off a series in less than seven games.
One thing of notice in game five was the fact that Josh Richardson and Justice Winslow found their confidence.
If they can carry that over into game six we could see a complete shift in the Heat's chances of winning this series outright.
From game six's standpoint look for the Heat's balance to outdo the Raptors and for Coach Spoelstra to have necessary adjustments to thwart the Raptors.
|05-12-16||Spurs v. Thunder +2||99-113||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
We see this all the time in other sports. Teams peak in the playoffs and can beat the best of the best teams.
It's happening right before our eyes with the Thunder and the Spurs.
For the Thunder to beat the Spurs twice on their home floor speaks volumes as the Spurs had lost only once all season.
They're getting it done with a college basketball mentality from Billy Donovan. He's giving the freedom necessarily needed to his star players in Durant/Westbrook and it's working.
While the Spurs long standing dominance is deserved of being favored, it's coming to an end Thursday.
Grab OKC to finish off the Spurs in grandiose fashion.
|05-11-16||Heat v. Raptors -4||91-99||Win||100||17 h 35 m||Show|
Toronto Raptors 538
There's an odd paradigm taking place in the Heat-Raptors series. The focus on the Heat has been the great resurrection of Dwayne Wade while with the Raptors the focus has been negative.
Continued poor shooting from All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have cast doubt on the Raptors.
Yet, I see things opposite. This series could easily have been over courtesy of a sweep from the Raptors if not from imploding in game four and playing rusty in game one.
Defensively they're flat out wearing down the Heat.
Wednesday, for the first time expect the Raptors to get their offense in gear both with the starters and bench.
They had success attacking the rim on Monday in particular with DeMar DeRozan who missed several gimme layup attempts.
Those will fall Wednesday as the Heat are not going to get away with utilizing Amare Stoudemire, Josh McRoberts, and Udonis Haslem as their triple threat interior players in consecutive games.
|05-10-16||Thunder +7 v. Spurs||95-91||Win||100||18 h 51 m||Show|
Oklahoma City Thunder 535
There has been superb basketball in the second round of the NBA playoffs. Unfortunately I've been on the side of some tight outcomes.
Tuesday, I see the Spurs and Thunder as likely the best spread in the second round yet.
Throughout the years the Spurs have been battle tested and responded in tough situations. They've also been a dominant home team.
Therefore oddsmakers had no choice but to offer a higher line than game one and two's set lines.
Market value would say to take the Thunder and that's where we'll go with Tuesday's selection.
OKC has the athletes and has changed their team chemistry with their defensive recognition.
Grab the value here on the Thunder as people expecting a game one scenario will be fooled on Tuesday.
|05-09-16||Warriors v. Blazers +4.5||132-125||Loss||-102||19 h 53 m||Show|
Portland Trailblazers 532
Can the Portland Trailblazers continue to sway momentum against the juggernaut Golden State Warriors?
Sure they can. Golden State will likely be without Steph Curry who is doubtful and believe the city of Portland will look to create another hostile environment.
Golden State typically has answers with their offense to combat teams but the Trailblazers have an uncanny skill set with two guards in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum who are causing havoc.
I don't see the Warriors slowing them down Monday. Also, the Trailblazers are receiving under valued play from Al Faroug Aminu, Plumlee, and reserve Allen Crabbe off the bench.
Don't fall for the bait of latching onto the Warriors ATS in game four.
|05-06-16||Spurs v. Thunder +2.5||100-96||Loss||-115||22 h 10 m||Show|
Oklahoma City Thunder (520)
Maturity has never been a word linked with Oklahoma City Thunder stars Kevin Durant and Russ Westbrook.
Yet, it appears the Western Conference's dominance has reshaped their games and uplifted their team's play.
Winning on the road in San Antonio doesn't happen often and the Thunder accomplished that in game two.
The Spurs regular season success of 67 wins is the sole reason why they're favored Friday.
As stated in Saturday's free play winner, I expect the value beyond game one to continue to drift towards the Thunder.
They're a confident group that has the team balance to clear the Spurs Friday. Grab the Thunder.
|05-06-16||Cavs v. Hawks +3||121-108||Loss||-105||20 h 30 m||Show|
Atlanta Hawks (518)
Cleveland's historic three point night on Wednesday just adds to the mind boggling execution they've shown throughout the playoffs.
Seemingly Atlanta has to find answers in less than forty eight hours or they're going to be quickly finished by the Cavaliers.
Having lost nine straight to Cleveland you'd expect game three to handily go to the Cavaliers.
Not so fast as the Hawks have toyed with poor play in round one and in the regular season on the road against Cleveland. At home they've showcased to be a much more balanced and solid team.
Look for the Hawks to play a playoff level game and garner an ATS cover Friday.
|05-05-16||Heat v. Raptors -4.5||92-96||Loss||-100||25 h 4 m||Show|
Toronto Raptors (516)
All signs point to fade the Raptors. They've lost five straight ATS decisions and four of five at home.
It's a peculiar scenario as the Raptors were a dominant home team boasting a 32-9 regular season record.
Offensively their issues remain unsolved as they melted in a key third quarter stretch that proved to be the difference in game one.
Yet, I think the Heat are the team that will show ill effects offensively in game two. This is their fourth game in seven days and third on the road.
In game one Joe Johnson, D Wade, and Dragic shot sixty of their eighty nine team shots. That's a bit high and I'm not sure the Heat have the balance to find other solutions offensively.
Grab the Raptors to finally come to life and showcase their true depth against the tired Heat.
|05-04-16||Hawks +7 v. Cavs||98-123||Loss||-100||20 h 59 m||Show|
Game one between the Hawks and Cavaliers featured a lethargic Cavs team that still coasted to a double digit win.
With a game in the books you'd expect the Cavs to improve upon their lethargic game one and cruise in game two.
Not exactly. I believe this Hawks team found some confidence in their loss with key penetration from Dennis Schroder. Dating back to last year's playoffs this is a team that has now lost eight consecutive games to the Cavaliers.
Look for Atlanta to increase their defensive intensity and disrupt the fluid offense the Cavaliers have showcased in five playoff games.
Take the Hawks plus the points.
|05-02-16||Thunder v. Spurs -7.5||98-97||Loss||-110||11 h 41 m||Show|
One would expect the OKC Thunder to raise their level of play following game one's blowout loss to the Spurs.
Although I did say in my free play winner that I do expect the Thunder to gain value as the series goes on, I don't see that happening in game two.
It's a quick turn around from Saturday's blowout loss and I just don't see the Thunder coming up with necessary adjustments on the road.
San Antonio's offense should continue to click on all cylinders which is the main story line in grabbing them as steep favorites at home Monday.
OKC's defense is a problem and until the Thunder can get Ibaka, Kanter, and Adams to buy-in it's going to be a troublesome beginning. Grab the Spurs to roll again.
|05-02-16||Hawks v. Cavs -7||93-104||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
Game one between the Cavs and Hawks begins today. I do have this one going seven games but in game one we'll look at the Cavaliers to come out with proper aggression.
After all the Cavaliers did sweep the regular season series and last year's Eastern Conference Finals four games to none.
Atlanta is going to have to adjust their style after struggling against the Celtics to showcase an offensive identity. In fact, only Kyle Korver shot above 41% in the Celtics series at the guard position.
Cleveland should be able to jump start game one and grab an ATS cover based on continued dominance in half court offensive sets. Grab the Cavaliers.
|05-01-16||Pacers v. Raptors -5.5||84-89||Loss||-105||14 h 59 m||Show|
In sports often times we see the same occurrence. A team lets a golden opportunity slip and eventually pays for it.
Indiana may have won game six on their home floor but in my opinion the series was lost in game five. That was a game they handily were ahead in and botched the fourth quarter entirely.
Toronto may not be playing their best basketball but they're in a game seven position on their home floor.
There's a reason low seeds don't advance to often. Toronto rides their home crowd and finds away to get into the second round. Take the Raptors.
|04-29-16||Raptors v. Pacers -2||83-101||Win||100||14 h 40 m||Show|
Value lies with the Pacers on Friday in a crucial game six at home.
We all know the meltdown that occurred in the fourth quarter, but Indiana has completely dominated seven of the last eight quarters of the series.
Keep in mind at home Toronto was a juggernaut all season long as a fourth quarter team that rivaled the Warriors.
Surely if Indiana had won game five, they'd be a minimum 3.5 point favorites Friday.
I expect them to ride the need to win and get back to the defensive strengths they've showcased the past two games.
This series heads gets decided in seven games. Grab the Pacers.
|04-27-16||Hornets v. Heat -5.5||90-88||Loss||-106||19 h 9 m||Show|
Miami Heat (576)
The Hornets have made things interesting winning two games on their home floor. Yet all I believe that's done is create ATS value on the Heat the rest of the way.
Miami showcased in games one and two what they're capable of when they hone in defensively.
For whatever reason on the road they could not match that same level of intensity as guards Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker carved them up.
Quietly though they've bottled up the Hornets interior. In game four alone the Hornets Marvin Williams, Al Jefferson, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky, and Cody Zeller shot a combined nine for twenty eight from the field.
Look for the Heat to get the ebb and flow offense back at home and for the Hornets to suffer to sustain offense as a result.
|04-26-16||Pacers +7 v. Raptors||99-102||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
Indiana Pacers (569)
Indiana is coming off their best offensive output in terms of field goal percentage as they shot 47.1% in game four. In fact, the Raptors never crawled within double-digits in game four after trailing 28-16 at the end of the first quarter.
This series is now the best of three, and I see it even getting tighter than what we've seen.
With that in mind I think you have to toss out the Raptors superb 32-9 home record in the regular season.
Grab the value of the Pacers who have rotated their dialed in defense on the Raptors first unit and rolled it to the Raptors second unit as well.
|04-25-16||Clippers v. Blazers +4||84-98||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
I find it odd that this line has gained in value on the Trailblazers off of game three.
In game three the Trailblazers were just two point underdogs and now find themselves as 3.5 point underdogs.
The Clippers do have the better starting five but still are missing the ebb and flow you need on the road.
Keep in mind Blake Griffin is still getting acclimated after three and a half months off.
The bench has been sporadic and JJ Redick is coming off a poor performance in game three.
Portland has confidence and it's not just with their lethal guards in McCollum and Lillard. Mason Plumlee had a dominating game three in the interior with 21 rebounds and nine assists.
Grab the value on Portland and look for the Blazers to play even better than game three tonight.
|04-25-16||Heat v. Hornets -2||85-89||Win||100||6 h 5 m||Show|
Even though the Hornets will be without Batum I still see value in the Hornets.
Sometimes a team can catch too much attention ATS with their first two home games.
Frankly that looks to be the case with the Miami Heat who throttled the Hornets on their home floor in games one and two.
Yet to win a series you need to showcase that capability with four wins not just two.
I have strong concerns with how the Heat looked in game three and the confidence they gave a Hornets team that is underrated offensively.
During the regular season they scored 103.4 points per game.
They have a skill set most playoff teams can't boast with two big men that can stretch the floor in Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky.
They're also getting great play from Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson off the bench.
The Hornets just lacked the energy in games one and two needed to pull off road wins.
Look for this series to draw even in become a series destined for seven games.
|04-23-16||Clippers v. Blazers +1.5||88-96||Win||100||16 h 9 m||Show|
Portland Trailblazers (552)
Saturday's lone play comes in the night cap between the Portland Trailblazers and LA Clippers.
Many thought the Trailblazers would give the Clippers difficulties to start the series in LA. That has not been the case as the Clippers offense has overwhelmed the Trailblazers along with cold shooting from Portland.
Yet, a series can change with a team's ability to defend their home court.
LA has seemingly been unchallenged since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup. In fact disregarding the final regular season game in which the starters sat out for rest, the Clippers have won eight consecutive games with Griffin in the lineup.
Grab Portland to get back in the series and defend their home floor as they've played far below their capabilities in LA.
|04-22-16||Hawks v. Celtics -2.5||103-111||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
Boston Celtics (542)
The Celtics offense has no where to go but up after another horrific offensive display in game two.
In fact, Isiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Marcus Smart combined to shoot just six for thirty-five from the field.
Things got so bad that Brad Stevens inserted rookies Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter in extended minutes of playing time.
Rozier's twenty-four minutes were a season high and Hunter's the highest since December 26th.
Certainly the Celtics offensive woes are troublesome but lets not be blindsided by one game.
They overcame the same problems in game one to take a lead against the Hawks, and played well enough defensively in game two to make the game manageable.
Atlanta is an untrustworthy team on the road and I believe the Celtics will get enough done to support backing Friday.
|04-22-16||Cavs v. Pistons +5||101-91||Loss||-115||20 h 58 m||Show|
Detroit Pistons (540)
The eighth seed Detroit Pistons have given the Cavaliers two strong efforts and still came up short.
In Wednesday's loss the Cavaliers went nuts from three point range draining twenty attempts on thirty eight shots.
Igniting the spark from downtown was JR Smith who scored all seven of his baskets from three point range.
Yet, I like how the Pistons fought in the fourth quarter to fight close to the ten point closing line.
A key take away from the first two games is the fact that the Pistons have controlled the interior. Cavaliers Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov have combined to score two points along with seven rebounds in the first two games.
This is a short span from Wednesday's game two and I expect the Pistons to showcase the same energy they've brought forth in games one and two.
Don't expect the Cavaliers to stay red-hot from three. Grab the value on the Pistons.
|04-21-16||Warriors v. Rockets +5||96-97||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
Houston Rockets (538)
To me the Golden State Warriors may be a bit too cocky at this point. Even Coach Steve Kerr lamented that the depth of the Warriors is good enough to win without Stephen Curry.
The fact of the matter is without Curry the Warriors scoring needs two to three guys to fill the void.
That's a lot to be asked against a Rockets team that can score in bunches.
How will the Warriors react to a 40 point quarter from the Rockets?
I expect to see one game of solid four quarters of effort from the Rockets, and we'll get that today.
Too much is at stake with the media harping on Rockets players Dwight Howard and James Harden. I also believe the Rockets role players are more than capable of providing proper balance in a do or die game three.
Grab the value on the Rockets Thursday.
|04-21-16||Raptors -1 v. Pacers||101-85||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
There's a lot of people swaying from the Raptors to Pacers to take this series.
Look for that to reverse after game three.
In an NBA series things can change vastly from game to game. I like the tweaks Coach Duane Casey made in game two by replacing Norman Powell from the starting lineup but still giving him starters minutes.
It ignited the Raptors offense out the gate. Even though the offense tapered when Powell was inserted in the first half, in the second half he aided in the pull away run.
Defensively I also believe the Raptors are gaining ground on the Pacers. Indiana's limited behind the capabilities of Paul George. Veteran Monta Ellis shows flashes but is no longer a viable second-scoring option. Young players in Myles Turner and Solomon Hill are streaky role players which leaves Indiana vulnerable.
While Indiana may get out to a fast start, the Raptors depth will be too much for the Pacers.
This is a baiting line that will get many. Don't fall for it. Grab the Raptors.
|04-19-16||Celtics +6.5 v. Hawks||72-89||Loss||-104||18 h 40 m||Show|
Celtics Coach Brad Stevens hopes that his Celtics squad has figured out the conundrum of being down steep deficits.
In their latest games they've been down steep deficits to the Hornets, Miami Heat, and in game one against Atlanta.
In-game adjustments led to the Celtics storming back in game one against the Hawks and their regular season finale come back to defeat the Heat.
This is now the sixth matchup of the season between the Celtics and Hawks. Oddsmakers have continued to value the Hawks dominance of 4 wins to the Celtics 1 and I believe that's the wrong angle here.
Boston did lose Avery Bradley to a hamstring injury and are a bit banged up with Marcus Smart/Kelly Olynk.
Yet, the Hawks struggles to produce points at the two-guard position is troublesome. Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder, and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot a combined 1 for 18 in game one.
Look for the Celtics to reverse their track of being down early and continue to frustrate the perimeter offense of the Hawks.
Grab the value on the underdog here.
|04-18-16||Pacers v. Raptors -7||87-98||Win||100||16 h 45 m||Show|
Toronto Raptors (518)
It's been blowout city to start the NBA playoffs. One game that wasn't was between the Pacers and Raptors, as Indiana upset Toronto.
Paul George simply took over in game one with 33 points on twelve of twenty-two shooting. Meanwhile the Raptors stars in Demar Derozan and Kyle Lowry both shot abysmal from the floor.
That of course is not atypical of a Raptors team especially on their home floor. On the season they've had an impressive 32-9 record.
Monday, expect the need for a win combined with their home floor advantage to over power the seventh seed Pacers.
The reason the Pacers are a seventh seed is because of their continual inconsistencies. All season long they followed up wins with dud performances.
Grab Toronto on Monday.
|04-16-16||Celtics v. Hawks -5||101-102||Loss||-115||30 h 41 m||Show|
To start the NBA playoffs we'll look at the Atlanta Hawks in what is expected to be a long series against the Celtics.
I don't believe that will be the case as the Hawks dominated the Celtics in three regular season wins.
Defensively the Celtics gave up 116 points a game in those three losses which is well beyond their season average of allowing 102.5.
Even though both teams are 48-34, the depth advantage lies squarely with the Hawks.
Keep in mind this is the same team that won sixty games a season ago, and returns the same core group of talent.
Boston has bench production issues with Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynk, and David Lee. Fourth quarters have been detrimental to the Celtics as in those three losses they've been outscored by nine or more points to the tune of 103-68.
Grab the Hawks to set the tone game one against the Celtics.
|04-13-16||Heat v. Celtics -4||88-98||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
The Boston Celtics have a chance to create chaos in the Eastern Conference playoff seeding with a win at home today against the Heat.
Of course they could have been in better position if not for an embarrassing home loss on Monday against the Charlotte Hornets.
In the defeat the Celtics looked like the team in a back to back scenario and not the Hornets.
Yet, with two days of rest I believe the Celtics can take advantage of a Heat team that's played four games in six days.
One key to being in Vegas is the ability to watch multiple games every night. Harkening back to Boston's February 27th twelve point victory over the Heat, I'll use several key take aways for tonight's play.
In the win the Celtics played lethargic for three quarters and the start of the fourth quarter. You could say the Celtics were playing Miami Heat style of basketball as the Heat led by eight at the end of the first quarter and the game was tied at 82 with seven minutes remaining.
The Celtics finished the final seven minutes on a 19-7 run against a Heat team that wore down.
Look for the same recipe today as the Celtics should bounce back in solid fashion ATS.
|04-12-16||Grizzlies +8 v. Clippers||84-110||Loss||-110||21 h 18 m||Show|
Down the stretch of the season the majority of playoff teams are getting discussed except one…..Memphis.
Rightfully so as they are in poor shape minus key veterans in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.
To make matters worse Tony Allen is nursing a hamstring injury and his status is unknown for Tuesday.
Still I love the value of the Grizzlies being an after thought as the playoffs near. Lets not forget the Clippers are getting acclimated to Blake Griffin back in the lineup which is skewing the ATS number a tad Tuesday.
Since returning to the lineup he is averaging ten points, six rebounds, and four assists a game.
Yet, team camaraderie is not one hundred percent. They caught the Wizards on the back end of a five game road trip, consecutive games against the Lakers, and survived match ups against the Mavericks and Jazz.
Look for the Grizzlies hunger to shine Tuesday, as they force the Clippers rotation into tough shots by playing their game. Grab the Grizzlies.
|04-12-16||Knicks v. Pacers -10||90-102||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
Tuesday, the Indiana Pacers will look to grab their third win of the season over the New York Knicks.
The Knicks have been disastrous post All Star break with a record of 9-17, but have played the Pacers tight in both match ups this season.
In Indiana they lost by three points and recently at home on April 3rd by five points. Yet, I've been waiting for the Pacers to hit another gear and it appears they're at that mark before the playoffs begin.
Their veteran trio of George Hill, Paul George, and Monta Ellis have been steady the majority of the season, but where there overall improvement lies ATS for Tuesday's matchup is their depth.
Rodney Stuckey and CJ Miles are now healthy. Also off the bench is key production with Solomon Hill, Myles Turner, and Ty Lawson. All are finding their offensive niche as teams defensive intensity wanes down the stretch.
The Pacers get the sweep and do so in big fashion.
|04-11-16||Kings +6.5 v. Suns||105-101||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
Monday, the Sacramento Kings head to Phoenix to take on the surging Suns. Phoenix has won consecutive road games as a double-digit underdog against the Houston Rockets and in blowout fashion against the Pelicans on Saturday.
In the efforts the Suns continue to see the bright future of young guard Devin Booker. Booker has averaged over twenty points per game since March 1st.
Yet, I believe we saw the peak capabilities of the Suns depleted roster talent in both of there recent wins.
The spotlight hovering around DeMarcus Cousins resting is creating the Suns high spread tonight. In the Kings last four games where Cousins has missed due to suspension or rest their only cover was a .5 point backdoor against the Miami Heat.
Still, I believe the Kings can thrive here against a Suns team returning home after five of seven road games. Expect a bit of rust from the Suns.
|04-10-16||Magic v. Heat -8.5||96-118||Win||100||12 h 42 m||Show|
04/10 03:05 PM NBA (513) ORLANDO MAGIC VS (514) MIAMI HEAT (04/10 03:27 AM) edit
|04-10-16||Hornets v. Wizards +5||98-113||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
04/10 09:05 AM NBA (501) CHARLOTTE HORNETS VS (502) WASHINGTON WIZARDS (04/10 03:26 AM) edit
|04-09-16||Warriors v. Grizzlies +13||100-99||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
Memphis Grizzlies (706)
The Grizzlies will try and prevent the Golden State Warriors historic quest of reaching 73 wins.
To do so they'll need to rely on veterans Matt Barnes, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter to slow down the Warriors assault.
Last night as 6.5 point underdogs they fell short against the Mavericks ATS as Dallas took over in the fourth quarter.
Yet, this is a Grizzlies team that has fought through adversity with season ending injuries to Marc Gasol and Mike Conley Jr. Don't forget this decimated Grizzlies team defeated a Lebron James Cavaliers team in Cleveland on March 7th.
As potent as the Warriors are they're human. Defending their NBA title in the playoffs is their ultimate goal and I wouldn't be surprised to see a cat and mouse game through three quarters Saturday. Grab the Grizzlies.
|04-09-16||Suns -1.5 v. Pelicans||121-100||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
As you look around the NBA perhaps no team is as decimated with injuries as the New Orleans Pelicans. In fact, nine players fill the injury report. Yet, the Pelicans are getting solid contributions from unheralded players such as Tim Frazier, Dante Cunningham, and Alexis Anjinca.
Their recent surge included last night's win over the Lakers as well as a spirited effort in a fifteen point loss to the Celtics.
Yet, the Suns have the better depth and are playing with poise under interim Coach Earl Watson.
Thursday, they landed just their eighth road win of the season with superb effort as five players contributed in double-figures.
Look for another road victory to happen as the Suns boast an interior(Chandler/Len/PJ Tucker) and backcourt advantage(Booker/Goodwin) that should overwhelm the Pelicans. Grab the Suns.
|04-08-16||Bucks v. Celtics -10.5||109-124||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
Injuries continue to pile up for the Milwaukee Bucks. They'll be without Jerryd Bayless and forward Khris Middleton tonight against the Celtics. That's troublesome as the Bucks have struggled with floor spacing due to the lack of point guard contributions. Remember point guard Michael Carter-Williams is already out for the season with a hip injury.
Over the Bucks last two games they're just six for twenty three from three point range. At point guard they've had to use rookie Rashad Vaughn, who did not play that role in college at UNLV. Current backup Tyler Ennis still seems to be adjusting to the NBA level.
Boston seemed to have a hangover effect from their recent West Coast road trip when they nearly lost Wednesday as fifteen point favorites against the Pelicans. That won't be the case tonight as the Celtics should cruise here.
|04-08-16||Wizards v. Pistons -5.5||99-112||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
Tonight the Detroit Pistons will look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards. In fact, their last meeting on March 14th was the Pistons worst loss of the season in a 124-81 beat down. Yet, Detroit is coming off an efficient game Wednesday in which six players scored in double figures. Essentially the Pistons have clinched the eighth seed in the East with a 2.5 game lead with three games left.
Look for the Wizards recent five game West Coast trip to also be a factor here tonight. Grab the Pistons to prevent a season sweep and avenge March's embarrassing 43 point loss.
|04-07-16||Raptors v. Hawks -7||87-95||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
Atlanta Hawks 704
An adage in sports is not to buy-in to what you last saw of a team. Last Wednesday-March 30th the Hawks were blitzed by the Toronto Raptors in an eight point 105-97 road loss. Inexplicably the Hawks got off to such a poor start that they trailed by twenty two points at the end of three quarters.
Statistically the Hawks did not shoot poorly as they shot 44.6% from the field. They were defeated in the x-factor categories. Eighteen turnovers did them in as well as a free throws made disadvantage as the Raptors made thirteen more.
I anticipate this faring much differently as the Toronto is 22-16 on the road versus 30-9 at home. Also, the Hawks are in need of a win as they're in a tight playoff race with the Celtics, Heat, and Hornets. All are separated by one game with the Hawks currently in the third spot. A loss tonight could potentially drop the Hawks down to the sixth spot.
Grab the Hawks to ride their balanced rotational attack with Al Horford, Paul Millsap, and Jeff Teague and avenge last Wednesday's loss.