The Carolina Panthers have won four straight games with Bryce Young as quarterback. Last week was the big shocker winning as a double digit underdog on the road against Green Bay. Now they will face a Saints team that is 1-8 on the year, benched Spencer Rattler, and traded away Rasheed Shaheed. Still, look for Tyler Shough to play a bit better than his debut, and for the Panthers to have a back to reality game. Take the Saints.

The Chicago Bears had it as easy as they could last week offensively, against the worst defense in football in the Cincinnati Bengals. Now they have won five out of their last six games, boosting their spread value against a Giants team that is 0-5 on the road.  In the second half of last week’s loss Jaxson Dart showed some confidence and growth in the passing game down the field. Look for that to be an x-factor Sunday, as the Giants hang around against the Bears.

There’s no doubt the loss of Dylan Raiola is going to impact Nebraska the rest of Big Ten play. Yet, this week is a matchup they can win with proper execution and running the football with Emmett Johnson. Johnson already has 1,000 yards on the season, and the Bruins defense is coming off giving up a season high fifty six points to Indiana. Take Nebraska to get by in their first game without Raiola.

A team that has drastically faded has been Texas State. They were in many eyes a top level team for Sun Belt conference play. They even were in their matchup against Arizona State. Their blowout loss against James Madison showcased how poor they are defensively. UL Lafayette is certainly not their caliber skill wise, but team effort and discipline in the penalty department is the difference here. Take Lafayette plus the points. 

An unheralded matchup presents value in the American Conference. Tulsa is winless at 0-5 in league play, and has just one division one victory on the season. Still, the offense has shown improvement in the last two weeks scoring 27 and 37 points. Both were season highs against division one schools. Look for that improvement to continue to show on the road against Florida Atlantic. Could be another loss overall, but they get the cover ATS.

Playing through injuries can only get you so far. The 49ers fell flat in last week’s loss against the Houston Texans, and now will travel on the road in consecutive weeks to face the Giants. As beat up as they are expect Kyle Shanahan to do his best to keep time of possession in his favor. Mac Jones is also undefeated in his career in MetLife stadium with a 3-0 record, and all wins by five points or more. Take the 49ers in what might be the sloppiest game of the day. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are beat up offensively with quarterback Joe Flacco, and have the worst defense in yards and points per game. A defense that allowed the winless Jets to mount a double digit comeback win last week. Still, this is a game they have to have similar to Baltimore a week ago against this Bears team. Chicago without De’Andre Swift is going to put more of a focus on Caleb Williams to make plays. Take the Bengals plus the points.

The New England Patriots are tied with the Denver Broncos for the best win streak in the NFL at five games. The win streak featured all covers ATS by the Patriots, which I believe has finally forced the oddsmakers to adjust aggressively on New England. Keep in mind New England had a rigorous three game road trip, before returning home last week. Sometimes it’s the second home game that a team has their slip up moments, which we have seen from New England against the Raiders and Steelers. Take the Falcons plus the points after two poor showings against the 49ers 

It’s obvious that John Matter returned from injury at not one hundred percent. Over the Sooners last three games they have lost to Texas and Ole Miss, but it’s also allowed Matter to play and work through the injury. Expect a sharper performance from him tonight and for Tennessee to need to adjust from their typical octane offense that averages forty six points per game. Close game with the Sooners sneaking within the number.

The Florida Gators began the season as a ranked team, that quickly faded and led to the firing of Billy Napier. Billy Gonzales will now step in and look to get the Gators bowl eligible with five gams left. Even though Georgia is 6-1, they have shown vulnerability with several close wins. Take the Gators be the latest to hang around against the Bulldogs, and stay within the touchdown spread.

Transitioning to division one football is tough for any program. For Delaware they hit a wall after their bye week, lost a tough game against Western Kentucky and then were blown out by Jacksonville State. This is a spot I expect to be a very tight game against Liberty, where at the worst we push on the three points. Competitive close game here grab the underdog.

We see it all the time when a team survives to remain undefeated like UNLV, all it takes is that one loss to shift the tide entirely. UNLV was fortunate early in the season against Idaho State, Air Force, UCLA, and Miami Ohio to survive close victories. After last week’s blowout loss against Boise State look for the shift to occur, against a New Mexico team that makes opportune plays. Take the points here with the Lobos.

Two teams that have lost four straight games meet tonight in the ACC as Syracuse hosts North Carolina. North Carolina nearly pulled off two upsets in a row as a double digit underdog, but lost narrowly to California and Virginia. The offense just has not been enough with Gio Lopez under center as he has thrown for just two touchdowns and four interceptions against division one schools. Take the Orange here on the short number.

Prime time has been very tricky this season, but I look for the Packers to get the road win against Pittsburgh. With Mike Tomlin’s Steelers we’ve seen the hot starts but also the wall that causes an extreme reverse in losses. Green Bay has had a heavy road schedule as this will be their fourth road game over their last five, but what they have been able to do is win. Low enough spread here that I’ll buy on the Packers side.

Sunday we have a matchup of prime time eyes just last week. Houston laid an egg in Monday Night football, while San Francisco shined creating a prime time inflation spot on the 49ers. Some teams struggle post bye week and that was the case for the Houston Texans. The offense assuredly may continue to struggle without key weapons at wide receiver including Nico Collins. Yet, I believe the Texans defense rises to the occasion winning the turnover battle and making things difficult for the 49ers. Take the Texans.

The Buffalo Bills have killed backers ATS this season, and even with that their number remains high on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Expect Josh Allen to settle back in off the bye week and also for the defense to perform better after getting gashed by the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Andy Dalton has shown to be serviceable backup but now has to step in and play with pressure as the Panthers have won three straight. Take the value on the Bills.

The MAC has been a conference I’ve stayed clear of thus far this season. Today though I believe there is an opportunity in a battle of undefeated conference MAC teams, as Western Michigan takes on Miami Ohio. Seventh year senior DeQuan Finn has done his most damage in conference with his legs, but we’ve also seen his rushing yards come down each of the last three weeks. Look for Western Michigan to force Finn more into a pocket passer where he has struggled with touchdowns to interceptions. Take Western Michigan.

The Virginia Tech Hokies have a lost season, but have an opportunity to take a game to game approach to close out the year. California we’ve seen have the upper hand with teams venturing their way, but it’s been an issue for them to travel East. They got down 14-0 against Boston College, and I think we see another big early deficit from the Bears. Take the Hokies to get the cover

A year ago the Green Bay Packers blew out the Arizona Cardinals as a short three point favorite at home. Now they are more then double the favorite on the road, after failing to cover their last two games against Cincinnati and Dallas. Expect the Packers to overwhelm a Cardinals team that has been fighting but losing as of late. Packers roll in this afternoon game in Glendale, Arizona. 

The Miami Dolphins have shown fight since Darren Waller got his first action in week four against the New York Jets. Miami had leads late before losing by three points to Carolina, and two points to the Chargers. Sunday could be the complete bottom spot for Miami against a Browns team that is now settled in after playing in Europe two weeks ago. Tail the home favorite here in Cleveland.

The Philadelphia Eagles just two weeks ago had a 20-1 streak going. Now they head into their road game against the Vikings having lost consecutive games. It’s a similar down turn we saw at the tail end of the 2023 season when the Eagles went 1 and 7 over their final eight games. Look for the Eagles to get in their own way, as the Vikings do just enough to get the home cover.

Bad teams can turn the corner in-conference. Last week Colorado State had an impressive showing defeating Fresno State 49-21. Now they are favored Saturday with a chance to win consecutive games for the first time this year. Look for their new found confidence to slow down a Hawaii offense that has peaked with consecutive games of forty four points. Tail the Rams.

Nebraska did not play their best game last Saturday in a road win against Maryland. It was their first true road game of the season, but the Cornhuskers prevailed thanks to a late touchdown. Expect a much more fluid game for the Cornhuskers and quarterback Dylan Raiola who threw three interceptions against the Terrapins. Lay the touchdown here with Nebraska.

From a coaching and player stand point there is not a team in the NFL that has to answer with an urgent performance Sunday more than the Raiders. They have been torched defensively over the last three weeks giving up an average of 35 points, and Geno Smith has thrown nine interceptions. It’s the right opponent in the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a fortunate win over the Cardinals. Lay the number with the Raiders.

It’s always tricky when a team is on the road in the east coast time zone in consecutive weeks. Yet, this Dallas Cowboys team was sparked by an embarrassing road loss against the Chicago Bears. Carolina may be 2-0 at home as an underdog, but defied the odds last week against Miami with a 200 yard game from Rico Dowdle. They also converted two improbable fourth downs. Take the Cowboys as Bruce Young has shown throughout his young career to not be trustworthy in consecutive weeks.

A year ago the Arizona Wildcats were the laughing stock of the Big 12. One of their most embarrassing losses came at the hands of BYU in a 41-19 loss. Fifita threw a collegiate high three interceptions, and the season for Arizona fell apart after that. Look for Fifita and the Wildcats to showcase their improvements against a BYU team that has yet to see their freshmen quarterback put in a tough spot. Tail the Wildcats.

A game that will have a low attention in the betting markets is Louisiana Monroe against Coastal Carolina. Both starting quarterbacks in Tad Hudson and Aidan Armenta are ranked in the bottom twelve in the entire country for average passing yards per game. That means capitalizing on turnovers will be the main factor in a team victory. That’s an area Coastal Carolina has been dreadful, as they rank the third worst team in college football in turnover margin. Expect the outlier plays to benefit the road team in Louisiana Monroe.

Alabama has regained the focus of the betting market with a couple of big wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The defense limited both teams to a combined seven points in the second half. Yet, a road element and early start time I believe has Alabama chasing from behind against this potent Missouri team. The Tigers are also in a revenge spot after losing 34-0 last season against Alabama. Grab the points here with Missouri. 

I’m going to grab South Florida tonight against North Texas. I truly believe if North Texas did not have the bye week advantage that South Florida would be favored. The Mean Green are led by freshmen in quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. Mestemaker has not thrown an interception on the season, and Hawkins is seventh in college football averaging over seven yards a carry. Expect the freshmen growing pains to show tonight as North Texas has already had a couple of close calls needing to win in overtime against Western Michigan and Army. Take South Florida. 

The LA Chargers fell from the undefeated ranks last week, but it was in the making. They were very flat in the second half of their Monday night win over the Raiders, and were outplayed by Denver even though they got the win. Look for the Washington Commanders with Jayden Daniels back to have enough to offset their injuries. Take Washington.

The Miami Dolphins picked up an important win on Monday against a winless New York Jets team. They utilized having the extra rest advantage over New York. Now they have to travel on the road and face a Carolina team eager to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week against the Patriots. Take Carolina where the Panthers only home game this year was a shutout 30-0 win.

Spencer Rattler has yet to get a win in his career as he is 0-10. Yet, he has had the Saints in position in several games this year, and now New Orleans returns home after a two game road trip. Over the Saints last ten games their only win was against the Giants. An x-factor is new Coach Kellen Moore as he is 6-0 in his last six games against the Giants as a play caller with the Eagles and Cowboys. Take the Saints.

Rice on the season does have two more wins than their opponent Florida Atlantic. Yet their two wins against division one schools they have struggled to score. Look for Western Kentucky transfer Caden Veltkamp to finally settle in and avoid the turnovers that have plagued him with seven interceptions on the season. Take Florida Atlantic as the small underdog. 

UNLV and Wyoming are both coming off a bye week in what is the conference opener in the Mountain West for both. UNLV on the season is undefeated but nothing has come easy as they barely beat both Idaho State and had to come from behind against Miami Ohio. Wyoming has also been a tricky place for the Rebels who have lost five straight matchups there, and last victory was 2003. Look for that to end tonight, as the Rebels offense solidifies an ATS cover.

A big rest advantage could be a factor at some point tonight as Delaware hosts Western Kentucky. The Blue Hens are in their first year in Conference USA and their last matchup was thirteen days ago against Florida International. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky played just six days ago in what was a hard fought win against Missouri State. The Hilltoppers also were one of the few teams that played in week zero, with tonight marking their sixth game of the season. Lay the short number here with Delaware.

Sometimes a bad loss can spark a team. Green Bay got content late up 10 to 0 on the Cleveland Browns, and had a poor game offensively in all phases. Josh Jacobs did not establish the ground game, the offensive line allowed five sacks, and Jordan Love threw a costly late interception. With all of that they have a dominant history against Dallas, and have won five straight games overall in Dallas. Take the Packers as they surge past the Cowboys.

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting healthier with the return of Xavier Worthy, but the lack of a ground game is still there. Baltimore ran into a Detroit team playing peak football on Monday night, look for the Ravens to use that as fuel to clean up issues on both sides of the football. It’s also a value angle seeing the Chiefs for the second time this season as a home underdog. Grab the Ravens.

The New York Giants are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night football, and will now turn to Jaxson Dart at quarterback. The Giants had six players upgraded from questionable giving the offense a boost, and the Chargers are one of the more road heavy teams to begin the year. They played in Brazil, Vegas, and now make the cross country flight to New York. Grab the big points here with the Giants.

The New England Patriots had one of the worst self destruction games a team can have last week against the Steelers. They turned the football over five times, and did not get the necessary stop defensively with the game tied at 14. Carolina for a second straight week has covered the spread, but in a non divisional game I expect more of what we saw for a full game against Jacksonville and three quarters against the Cardinals. Lay the number with New England.

The Oregon Ducks have shown time and time again as a trustworthy team ATS. in the regular season. The big question is will that merit hold with an inexperienced quarterback in Dante Moore on the road at Penn State. As a team I believe they overcome any issues he has early on. Additionally, Penn State coming off a bye week may be the factor that keeps the Ducks in the game early on, as the offense stumbles. Take the Ducks in what may be a close loss but cover for Oregon.

San Jose State twice on the year have failed in the betting markets as double digit favorites, losing outright to Central Michigan and barely beating Idaho last week by a field goal. Heading on the road to face Stanford is a spot I believe senior quarterback Walker Eget can shake off a poor start to the season and get some confidence. They’ll need the scoring to keep pace with their troublesome defense. Take the small dog here with the Spartans.

Conference USA has been a conference we have seen accept new division one teams. Missouri State is the latest and has been reputable ATS where they had a 10-0 lead on SMU, and have a win over Marshall. Western Kentucky to me is a team that has performed sluggish over the last couple of games but managed to overcome that and cover a big number last week against Nevada. Expect a crisper performance today for the Hilltoppers as they cover the number.

One thing about a bad loss is you expect a team to come out with high energy early on. Auburn I’m expecting to have the early lead against Texas A&M, and maybe even the lead at halftime. To keep up with Texas A&M for four quarters is where I have my concerns. Take the Aggies as the Tigers lose once again close to the number late.

For Arizona State it’s always a sweat in their games under Kenny Dillingham. We saw them get by in countless games last season to reach the college football playoffs, and already this season they have had two close games against Mississippi State and Baylor. TCU has slid into the top twenty five thanks to their hot start, but look for the physicality of Arizona State to present its challenges. Also, rain in the early afternoon in Tempe will make it an abnormal humid evening with temperatures in the high 80s. Take Arizona State to pull off another close win.

One of the toughest elements for a team is starting the year on the road consecutive games. The 49ers had to do so, and despite covering the number as favorites find themselves as slim home favorites Sunday. Arizona swept the series last year, and can play the same clock management game that Kyle Shanahan is well known for. This comes down to the wire, but grab the Cardinals to execute in the end.

The New Orlean Saints have lived right on the number in their first two games against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. That captures the betting market, and is an opportune spot for me as the big let down occurs. Spencer Rattler still is winless in his career with an 0-8 mark, and Seattle has the tools on both sides of the football to make this a pull away game in the second half. Take the Seahawks.

The Denver Broncos were a non penalty away from securing a tough win at Indianapolis. Instead they went to 1-1, but expect that loss to drive the team to prove themselves early against the LA Chargers. Bo Nix and Sean Payton found their offensive rhythm, and you also have the ex-factor of JK Dobbins facing his old team. Take the Broncos plus the points.

Teams having back to back road games early in the season can devalue them ATS. For the Rams they have that on a small number, against an Eagles team that has won eleven straight home games. The revenge angle is also in play after the Rams cost themselves a trip to the NFC Championship game with two fourth quarter fumbles, and failed on their final drive that got all the way to the Eagles thirteen. Take the Rams in what is the fourth meeting over the last three years. 

Hawaii will get their freshmen quarterback back tonight with Alejandro. That can be an advantage as their is only the game film out from the Stanford matchup with him. Meanwhile Fresno State’s senior quarterback EJ Warner has not thrown a touchdown pass against a division one opponent, and has struggled with turnovers as well. Take Hawaii to continue their magic at home as the underdog. 

Last season the big knock on Indiana was their soft schedule, as they did not face a ranked opponent until late in the season on the road against Ohio State. Look for the Hoosiers to be ready to show the country, they can handle a ranked team early in the season as they take on Illinois. The Hoosiers have never lost at home under Coach Curt Cignetti, and have won eleven straight games at Memorial Stadium. Lay the number with the Hoosiers.

A game that is likely to draw little attention is Marshall against Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee very well should be an 0-3 team, but pulled out a late miracle in last week’s win against Nevada. I believe that has minimized what this spread would of been on Marshall’s side, who lost a majority of their team to Southern Miss. The fourth game in look for the traction to gain against a Middle Tennessee team that lacks explosive plays. Take Marshall.

The Utah Utes have to answer the call in Saturday’s matchup against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have the top offense in all of college football, but have not faced a true test. Coach Kyle Whittingham and the Utes must avoid another early season let down as they have the last two years losing to Arizona and Oregon State early in the season. Take the Utes to get their first Big 12 home win in program history and cover the number.

With Iowa we always know it’s not going to pretty. Their brand of football is not going to change and we saw this in keeping the game manageable and low scoring against Iowa State. As great as Rutgers explosive offense has been, conference play is a different level of evaluation. Rutgers also was shutout the last time these two met in 2023. Take Iowa on the spread. 

Small home favorites off a poor week one I’m willing to buy. For the Houston Texans they are once again dealing with key injuries offensively, with Joe Mixon out at running back. CJ Stroud needs to find his confidence and do so quickly though the air. Look for the small wins as the Texans play solid defense, win special teams, and the big key is have the advantage in the turnover battle. Take the Texans on the spread.

The Chicago Bears collapsed in a prime time spot on Monday, and now have to show resolve in a six day turn around against the Lions. Close game losses typically resulted in blowouts last season for the Bears in the following game. Look for the culture change under Ben Johnson to have an impact at least in terms of the spread. Chicago has had short term success against the Lions as well, in three out of the last four matchups they have either won or lost by five points or fewer. Grab the points here.

Sometimes the betting market is a week early on a team. Last week Duke faltered in a tough spot against the ranked Illini. Now travel on the road to play their quarterback’s old team in Tulane. Expect Darian Mensah’s teammates to raise their game for their quarterback, and bounce back in a big way over Tulane. Take the underdog in Duke.

Travel destinations are becoming less and less of an impact for spread evaluation as conference play begins for some. Out in the Mountain West Nevada gets to face a team traveling on a lengthy road trip in Middle Tennessee. As I said in last week’s write up with Washington State gaining a slim victory over Idaho, there is value to be had on team’s that get by against a non division one school. Expect Nevada to play a more fluid game after defeating Sacramento State by just three points. Lay the spread in a rare high number spot for a Wolf Pack team that is 6 and 31 over their last thirty seven games.

The Colorado Buffaloes made a surprise move at quarterback by moving to Ryan Staubb. I do like the move, but Staubb is in a tough spot on a short week traveling on the road in a confernece game against Houston. The Cougars have taken steps forward under Coach Willie Fritz, and now are in an unusual spot favored against Colorado. Non typical of what we have seen in the past, that presents value on the number. An issue under Deion Sanders teams has been mismanaging games in the fourth. Look for that to be the difference ATS. Take Houston.

Sometimes a key number is all it takes to get a cover in the NFL. Jacksonville was a team last year that wins and losses were so close. Nine of their losses were by five points or less. Carolina has a young roster that showed flashes of success last season. I’m expecting a tight game where we possibly see a walk off field goal for the win. Grab the points here with Carolina.

We have seen two divisional underdogs start the season off with covers. Washington as sizeable favorites will see a different level New York Giants team. Still, I anticipate the Commanders playing at the Giants level for the first half, before making the key plays to get past the number. The NFL is always outlier plays, and we saw this last year with Malik Nabers dropping a key fourth down ball, and an abundance of costly plays. Take the Commanders on the spread.

A narrative to go against in college football off of week one, is a team that struggled against a non division one school. We have that scenario with Washington State that struggled to get past Idaho last week. The old saying a win is a win helps us get a reduced number this week against San Diego State. Take the Cougars who get the right opponent to start the year off 2-0 on the season.

UCLA showed nothing on defense or offense in week one against Utah to make them a road favorite against UNLV. Nico Iamaleava probably has the most pressure of any quarterback in week two to respond. Expect UNLV’s potent offense to put Iamaleava in situations he did not have to be in at Tennessee. Close game but the Rebels prevail to go 3-0 on the year. 

There are games that serve as an eye opener and catapult a team in the spotlight. For Oklahoma this is their chance against a Michigan team, that is ahead of where I anticipated in their first game against New Mexico. Yet, this is a different caliber opponent in Oklahoma which I believe can manage this game from a trailing game script or by putting the pressure on the Wolverines with early scoring. Take Oklahoma who will win this decisively by ten or more points.

Virginia had one of the more impressive victories last week by routing Coastal Carolina 48 to 7. The blowout featured the defense shutting down former ACC and Big Ten quarterback MJ Morris. Offensively Chandler Morris showed how valuable he is as a sixth year senior at quarterback. Still, NC State has the advantage of having last week off and I expect their to be cleaner execution in both halves than what we saw against East Carolina. Take NC State on the small number.

The LA Chargers were in both games last season against the Kansas City Chiefs. They lost after having a 10-0 Sunday night prime time lead, and also had another close loss late in the season. The Chiefs dynasty is far from over, but winning at the rate they did last season is not sustainable. Look for the Chargers to do what Dallas did against Philadelphia, and hang around a divisional opener to begin the season. Take LA plus the points. 

Moving on from an era of consistent injuries at quarterback has happened with the Utah Utes. Devon Dampier was one of the more electric quarterbacks last season at New Mexico, and now goes into a system where he has a big upgrade in talent around him. UCLA was one of the slowest offenses out the gate last season, where they scored sixteen points or less in their first five games. Look for a shaky debut from Nico Iamaleava as Utah gets by with a win of six point or more.

One of the teams that is expected to take a leap this season are the Washington Huskies. We saw some of the flashes last season with quarterback Desmond Williams Jr., and they still have senior tailback Jonah Coleman. Colorado State has lost three straight openers by twenty six points or more. Tail the Huskies to make it four seasons in a row.

One of the teams that dealt with a bevy of transfers was California. Late exits in the portal could hurt California later in the season, as depth becomes an issue. Early on though look for the Bears to be prepared against former Pac-12 rival Oregon State. True freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele gets the upper hand over veteran transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy. Take California.

Yesterday we saw Tarleton State pull off a big upset as two touchdown underdogs against Army. Abiline Christian as a smaller underdog will hope to do so today against Tulsa. Gone for the Wildcats are former quarterback Maverick McIvor who nearly pulled off a week one upset a season ago against Texas Tech. Yet, still look for Abiline Christian to move the football, as Tulsa was one of the worst defenses last season. Over their last four games they gave up an average of fifty six points per game. 

Opening up on the road in a hostile environment can be tough to evaluate ATS. Georgia Tech likely will need to overcome a couple of drives of failure, and possibly a full quarter to adjust in their first game at Colorado. Kaidon Salter did have a second half of the season dip last year at Liberty, with four touchdowns to four interceptions over his final five games. That inconsistency I expect to flip this game in the second half. Take the Yellow Jackets.

A spread that is trickling down before kickoff is Charlotte vs Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have the name notoriety after years of being a staple in the Sun Belt. This is a transition year as they lost former quarterback Joey Aguilar to the portal and Tennessee. The first game for a new coach is so important, expect the 49ers to match the energy of Appalachian State and at least push the spread.

Sometimes early in the season especially in college football, you are playing numbers as you await the eye test on teams. That’s what I am doing with Wyoming as this spread has dropped a full 1.5 from 7. Ben Finley did some positive things to end the year for Akron but look for Wyoming’s ground game and execution to be the edge in this one. Tail Wyoming. 

College football is just a few weeks away, and a game that is starting to see line movement is Sam Houston and Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers won at Sam Houston last season by double digits, 31-14 as a 1.5 point underdog. Now they will work in one of the oldest starting quarterbacks in all of college football in 25 year old Matthew McIvor, who also has his old offensive coordinator from Abiline Christian. Look for the Bearkats to stay in this one as they did last season, but do a better job post halftime with adjustments. Key number to get at ten in case of a push, but ultimately believe this is a one score game.

The Buffalo Bills for the fourth time in the last five seasons will get their shot on knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. Unlike years past Josh Allen has put an emphasis on protecting the football, which has led to a career low in interceptions. The Bills with Josh Allen have four capable runners with James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis. Expect the Bills to build on their regular season blue print which was a near ten minute time of possession advantage over the Chiefs. Grab the Bills in the AFC Championship.

Ohio State’s increased playoff spread market nearly cost backers against Texas. A stout goal line stand that turned into a defensive touchdown saved the spread. Yet, oddsmakers could not give a lower point spread versus the Irish on the pre-established number against Texas. Notre Dame likely will go down but look for the same resiliency they have showcased time and time again. They’ve also covered five straight and ten out of their last eleven games. Grab the points.

For years the Ravens have faltered and not been able to get over the hump in the postseason with Lamar Jackson under center. That burden now has strong support with the addition of Derrick Henry. Henry’s playoff ability to sway a team we have seen before with the Titans, ending Tom Brady’s Patriots career, beating the Ravens, and helping build a 17-7 lead in the AFC championship on the Chiefs. His hunger combined and skill put the Ravens past the Bills and onto the AFC championship.

A wild card team that gets hot at the right time, usually gets that redemption game in the postseason. For the LA Rams they get that chance today on the road at Philadelphia. An Eagles team that routed the Rams on their own home field in front of a Sunday night football audience, 37-20. Since that performance the defense has excelled, and Sean McVay has put on a masterclass of preparation. Take the Rams to put forth another great effort even in cold weather snow conditions in Philadelphia.

The Kansas City Chiefs had their most regular season wins in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era, but it was also their lowest regular season point differential with Mahomes at quarterback. That speaks to how close most of their wins were. Off a bye teams can be slow out the gate. Houston is a common opponent from December 21st, that can adjust quicker to what they see in-game today. Look for the game to be played similar to their December matchup, which would give us the edge on the Texans. Grab the points with Houston.

Ohio State finds themselves as a considerable favorite tonight against Texas. This is all about timing as if this matchup was played a month ago the spread likely would of been in the 2.5 point range. The way Texas nearly lost to Arizona State is concerning, and the Buckeyes confidence matching their high level talent. The opponent continues to not matter as Ohio State rolls once again. Lay it tonight.

Notre Dame put on a showcase performance in their win over Georgia. They will now face a Penn State team that covered their double digit spread against Boise, but gave up over 400 total yards. Expect the Irish to have success attacking the Nittany Lions defense, and make the x-factor plays to move on to the National Championship Game. Take the Irish in what will be a close battle.

At the end of the season there is value to be had on low win teams. We’ve seen the Raiders, Giants, and Jaguars win last week. Jacksonville accomplished the task of defeating the Tennessee Titans twice, and now can do the same against the Indianapolis Colts. A game back in week five that was the Jaguars first win of the season, and not as close as the final score suggested. Indianapolis got some late big plays to make the game close. Take the Jaguars to continue to show some pride to close out the season plus the points.

We are entering the prime zone of bowl games as New Year’s Eve is upon us. The Washington Huskies were a team that struggled two-fold with the success of last year’s team, and Kalen DeBoer taking the Alabama job. The transition to the Big 10 was tough, but this is where a 6-6 team can shine in a bowl game. Huskies freshman quarterback Demond Williams has had in-season reps, expect the Huskies to have the proper packages. Grab the Huskies.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders incredible season featured yet another thrilling final drive from their rookie quarterback in last week’s victory over Philadelphia. Still, the Commanders have been playing with fire over their last couple of matchups. The Saints nearly walked them off on a two point conversion, and the Eagles were in command last week. Atlanta has new energy on both sides of the football with the quarterback move to Michael Penix. Take the Falcons to show that fire on the road.

Cooper Rush’s adaptability has been remarkable as Dallas has won four out of their last five games. But now the Cowboys will be without their big play receiver in Ceedee Lamb. The Eagles will also be able to game plan for Cooper Rush for a second time the season, the first team to be able to against Rush. They limited him and the Cowboys to just six points on November 10th. Even with Kenny Pickett as the starter grab the Eagles to roll.

The magic of a great season can be disrupted with a bowl game layoff. For the Colorado Buffaloes they will be undergoing a major transformation as Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter head to the NFL. BYU has the intel to take away Colorado’s strengths with extra preparation, and were the Big 12 college football playoff front runner for the majority of the season. Look for BYU to end Coach Prime’s Buffaloes season on a poor note. Take the Cougars.

A downgraded American Conference helped East Carolina turn around their season from a 3-4 start. They closed out the year with wins in four of their final five games. Sophomore quarterback Katie Houser showed some growth with eighteen touchdown passes on the season. NC State was a team that was projected fourth in the ACC conference odds, but close losses and inconsistent play derailed the Wolf Pack. Look for the turnover edge to hail with the Pirates and keep them within the number.

Georgia Tech began and ended their season with strong performances. They knocked off Florida State as a 10.5 point underdog, and nearly knocked off Georgia in an eight overtime thriller. On the other side Vanderbilt lost four out of their final five games as the SEC conference wore them down. With extended rest look for Vanderbilt to resemble the team that began the season 5-1. Take the points with Vanderbilt.

On a short week the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Jacksonville Jaguars. After ten straight losses expect the Raiders to take out their frustrations against the Jaguars. They have regained some starters and will have Aiden O’Connell back under center. Jacksonville also has incentive to lose to be tied with the Raiders for fewest wins in the NFL. Take the Raiders to end their ten game losing streak.

Towards the end of the season it’s rare but there are cases of poor teams finishing strong. The New York Jets may have a 4-10 record, but they have been in position to win a majority of games. After finally breaking through against the Jaguars, look for the Jets to show some confidence against the Rams. This is a pressure spot for LA to maintain in the NFC West in a cold environment. Take the Jets plus the points.

The Tennessee Titans struggles this season have been hard to watch. Two weeks ago they fell to the Jaguars at home, and last week were blown out with Will Levis struggling once again. Mason Rudolph will get the start and this is an opportunity for the Titans as the Colts have a predictable offense with Tony Richardson’s struggles. Grab the points here with the Titans. 

The Sun Belt yearly continues to be a cash cow in bowl season. We saw James Madison and South Alabama win and cover ATS with their backup quarterbacks under center. Sam Houston was a great turn around story from last year’s first season in division one. Their comeback win over Texas State down 21-0 in the first quarter was one of the best comebacks on the season. Yet, they faltered against even level competition. Take Georgia Southern to find cracks on the Bearkats defense. Lay the small number

The LA Chargers are a team that has changed their team identity with the loss of JK Dobbins. They have to win ugly, and rely more on their defense. It’s worked in low scoring games and covers against the Chiefs and Falcons. Expect the cross country travel to effect the Buccaneers offense to a degree. Baker Mayfield has had turnover issues with fumbles and four interceptions over his last two games. He’s also taken a lot of hits with twelve sacks over his last five games. Lay it with the Chargers.

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the top conundrums of the season. Somehow they have a 12-1 record that has featured a bevy of close wins. Each of their last four victories has been by three points or fewer. They’ve also failed to cover in seven straight games. Take the Browns to give the Chiefs their latest battle and possibly even win outright. Grab the points with the home underdog.

The Jets continue to find ways to lose, but last week they outplayed the Miami Dolphins for the majority of the game. The offense moved the football well, and defensively they limited Miami to field goals until late in the second half. After consecutive weeks of covers for the Jaguars look for the team to have trouble outside the division. Lay the points with the Jets.

The Carolina Panthers market has been fascinating to watch and grow with quarterback Bryce Young’s transformation. The market has flipped from steep underdogs to being a favorite for the first time in three years. Dallas I do believe is going to limit the Panthers offense, but their defense is also going to be able to handle Cooper Rush. Rush has been inaccurate at times and not a reliable quarterback in second halves. Tail the Panthers as favorites. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-8 on the season but one bright spot has been they are 3-0 SU and ATS when favored on the road. They had wins and covers against the Browns, Giants, and Panthers. They also have experience traveling on the road to Dallas with Cooper Rush at quarterback losing two seasons ago. Look for the Bengals to ramp up their play and get their fifth win of the season. Lay it -5.

There probably was not a team that played well, and still lost last week like the Arizona Cardinals. They controlled the game against Minnesota for almost the entirety, before a collapse in the fourth quarter. I expect a bit of a letdown early on against a Seattle team that defeated them two weeks ago. Additionally, the Seahawks defense limited Arizona to just six points in the win, and scored a defensive touchdown. Grab the points with Seattle.

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed a spark offensively late with Mac Jones at quarterback. The surge was enough to get a backdoor cover at home against the Houston Texans. Tennessee has showed some improvements over the recent weeks, which included a road win over the top team in the division in the Houston Texans. At home though they have yet to cover. Expect that trend to continue against the Jaguars.

For years the Sun Belt conference has ran through Appalachian State, newcomer James Madison, and UL Lafayette. Marshall was a disastrous team last season that could not get anything out of the quarterback position. That changed this season along with the rising play of tailback AJ Turner and Jordan Houston. Take the points here with Marshall. 

UNLV’s had just two losses on the year, an overtime loss to Syracuse and a loss to tonight’s opponent in Boise State. The Broncos executed at a high level to get the win, including going for it on fourth and goal before the end of the half. They also were able to close out the game with a 14 play drive that ate up the final eight minutes and seven seconds. Expect that level of execution to be difficult to repeat. Grab the points here with UNLV.