Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia +1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - We understand Iowa is looking great early in the season with a 6-0 record. They’ve played all of those games at home and haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. The best defense they’ve faced was ranked 168th in efficiency and 5 of the 6 defenses they’ve faced rank 200 or lower. Tonight comes a whole different animal. Iowa is on the road for the first time and facing one of the top defenses in the country. UVA ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and they are playing better than that ranking right now. After a rare rough start to the season on the defensive end, they have held their last 4 opponents to 0.70, 0.71, 0.84, and 0.85 points per possession. That includes games vs Power 5 opponents Providence and Georgia. We’re not sure what to make of Iowa quite yet. We feel they are overvalued right now for sure. The Hawkeyes lost 3 of their top players from last year’s team including Luka Garza who was national player of the year. Our ratings have UVA as the favorite here. The Cavs have only been a home dog FOUR times since the start of the 2011 season (vs UNC (twice), Duke, and FSU). They are 4-0 ATS in those games and they are 59-7 SU at home their last 66. We like the value here with Virginia as a home dog. |
|||||||
11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite. |
|||||||
11-27-21 | UTSA v. North Texas +10.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
#190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +10.5 over Texas San Antonio, 2pm ET - This is going to be a tough spot for UTSA as they are off a HUGE win over UAB, the perennial power in the Conference last week, and have a date in the Conference Championship next week. The Roadrunners dramatic win last week came with a TD pass with just .03 seconds on the clock. UTSA was outgained by 100-yards by UAB in that game and gave up over 220-rushing yards. Next week UTSA will play the winner of the Marshall/Western Kentucky game for the CUSA title which makes this game much less important. North Texas can qualify for a Bowl game with a win here and have a key factor on their side in this matchup. We mentioned UTSA allowed over 220-rushing yards to UAB, well North Texas has the 4th best rush offense in the nation at 237.5RYPG. The Eagles are playing well right now having won 4 straight games and covering 7 of their last eight. The undefeated Roadrunners are a road favorite for just the 3rd time since 2018, are overvalued, and laying double digits on the road. Easy buy with the home team North Texas. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
#140 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -14.5 over TCU, Friday 4:30 PM ET - Vegas is begging us to bet on TCU here and we won’t bite. The Horned Frogs are attracting a lot of public action, yet the line is not fluctuating down. TCU has had a disappointing season which cost longtime head coach Gary Patterson his job and has Jerry Kill as the interim coach. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 3-point win over 2-9 Kansas who has an average +/- on the season of minus -22.8PPG. TCU has been blown out on the road this season by 46 at Oklahoma State, by 19 at Kansas State and 21 at Oklahoma who are all on par with this Iowa State team. The Cyclones are a disappointing 6-5 this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Even with 5 losses, ISU has a +10.3 average MOV which is incredible. Iowa State has a bad taste in their mouths after two straight 1-score losses on the road and will look for atonement at home. ISU is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +/- of +14.8PPG. Iowa State has a top 50-offense in several key statistical categories and should have success moving the ball against a TCU defense that ranks 113th in yards allowed per game at 454. On the other side of the football the Horned Frogs will have a tough time moving it against the top 10 defense of the Cyclones. This one has all the makings of a blowout. |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -6.5 over Drake, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We like the value with Bama here coming off their first loss of the season yesterday. We have the Tide as a 9 point favorite and the line is sitting at -6. Alabama has top 10 talent and they’ve proven that this year with blowout wins over solid competition. Prior to losing 72-68 vs Iona yesterday, the Crimson Tide had faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 135 this season and destroyed all of them. They beat La Tech (2nd highest rated team in Conference USA / 24-8 record last year) by 29, topped Oakland (highest rated team in the Horizon) by 27, and beat South Dakota State (by far the highest rated team in the Summit) by 16. Yesterday they ran into a senior dominated Iona team that had their eyes set on this game after losing to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. Bama led for most of the game but a late run by Iona got the tight win. We respect Drake as one of the top mid majors this season but they’ve struggled with the 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced this year losing yesterday to Belmont and struggling to beat Richmond at home by 3. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on the 3 point shot this season (37% of their points / 71st nationally) but today the face one of the best teams in the nation at defending the arc. The Tide currently rank 13th in the nation allowing just 23% from deep and it’s no fluke as they ranked 10th in the country in the same category last year. Drake is coming off a great season in 2020, however they didn’t face a single top 100 team in the non-conference last year and the best team in their league, Loyola Chicago, beat them in 2 of their 3 match ups last year. Both Loyola wins were by double digits and Drake’s lone win vs the Ramblers was by 1 point. Drake runs into a buzzsaw here vs one of the more talented teams in the country. Lay it with Alabama. |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
#112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -2 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ve kept a close eye on Ole Miss for a number of weeks now. We used their game vs Vandy Under last week and cashed easily. The Rebels are running out of gas. They are now playing their 9th consecutive week and now on a short week on the road. This team is banged up at a number of positions including QB where Matt Corral has not been able to practice which has limited Lane Kiffin’s game planning to his own admission. They struggled a bit last week beating Vandy by 14 (Ole Miss was favored by 35) and that was a Commodore team that had lost their first 6 SEC games by an average of 26 points including a 45-6 loss to Mississippi State. Because this team is fatigued, their scoring has dropped drastically especially in the 2nd half where they have scored a grand total of 44 points over their last 6 games (7.3 PPG in 2nd half during that run). Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are peaking right now which can’t be said about the Rebels. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback during that run coming @ Alabama. Throw out that game and MSU has outgained their last 6 opponents by an average of 203 YPG. While Ole Miss QB Corral gets most of the press, how about the run by MSU QB Rogers? He is completing 80% of his passes with 20 TD’s over the Bulldogs last 5 games. They have outgained every SEC opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Bama. MSU’s offense is rolling right now as we discussed and their defense gives up a full 100 yards less per game than Mississippi. This is a rivalry revenger as MSU lost @ Ole Miss last season 31-24. We like MSU to win this one and we’ll lay the small number. |
|||||||
11-24-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Sabres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo Sabres, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - Situations just do not come along much stronger than this one. High quality Bruins team off a rare 4-0 shutout loss is facing a slumping Sabres team that can not keep the puck out of their own net. Buffalo has lost 9 of its last 11 games. Also, the Sabres have allowed 5 or more goals in 7 of their last 8 losses. That is just incredibly bad and when you watch this team they just seem so undisciplined and make so many mistakes. A disciplined and focused and angry team like Boston is going to take full advantage of those mistakes no doubt. Bruins come in highly motivated after the 4-0 loss to the Flames. Boston, prior to that defeat, had won 3 straight games and all 3 victories were by identical 5-2 scores. The Bruins are starting to get healthier too while the Sabres are still without injured goalie Craig Anderson and Aaron Dell has been named the starter for this one and he remains winless on the season and Buffalo has allowed at least 5 goals in all 3 of his starts. The Sabres have lost 11 of 15 games since their surprising 5-2 start so they are starting to look like the Sabres of old and that is bad news. The Bruins, on the other hand, before the loss to Calgary, have been looking again like the Bruins of old and that is good news for Boston fans. They are going to pound Buffalo into submission tonight with a convincing win. Road team in a blowout is highly likely per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals (for plus money return currently in the +110 range) with road favorite Boston is a high percentage value play here. |
|||||||
11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss. |
|||||||
11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points. |
|||||||
11-22-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-20-21 | North Carolina v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - The Boilers are loaded this year returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and many of their key reserves. They have 2 of the top players in the Big 10 in Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey. We had them rated as the best team in the Big 10 entering the season and they haven’t disappointed. They have played 3 teams ranked inside the top 190 to start the season and won those games by 29, 25, and 44 points. Their most recent win was 96-52 vs Wright State, a team that is ranked as the top team in the Horizon League and finished last year with an 18-6 record. UNC, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top 225 and has had some fairly close games winning by 7, 11 and 16 points. UNC is coming off an 18-11 season, however they were just 3-7 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 40 last year which we’d consider solid competition. Purdue is currently ranked 3rd in the country on Ken Pom. Purdue HC Matt Painter always has his teams playing solid, aggressive defense. After 3 games this year (vs better competition that UNC) the Boilers have allowed just 36% from the field and rank 19th in defensive efficiency. They have finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency for 6 straight years under Painter. UNC, again vs all opponents ranked 200 or lower, are allowing almost 44% from the field (ranked 236th) and they have allowed at least 83 points in 2 of their 3 games. They now face a Purdue offense that has scored 90+ in every game this season. Purdue is the much better team here and we’ll lay the points. |
|||||||
11-19-21 | Thunder v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis. |
|||||||
11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -3.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for a very young Marquette team (352nd in experience – last in the nation) coming off a huge upset on Monday at home vs Illinois. The Golden Eagles were down 12 midway through the 2nd half and made a nice comeback to beat the Illini 67-66. Illinois played without their best player, All American center Cockburn. Illinois took 12 more shots, 7 more 3 point attempts, and creamed Marquette on the boards with a +20 differential. The Illini simply shot poorly hitting only 37% of their shots overall and 37% of their 3-point attempts. Prior to that win Marquette struggled at home vs New Hampshire (won by 5) and SIU Edwardsville (won by 11). In their game vs SIUE, who is ranked 321st nationally, Marquette never led by more than 13 in a game they were favored by 21. It was a 5 point game with 2:00 minutes remaining. SIUE followed that 11 point loss @ Marquette by losing to 357th ranked Chicago St by double digits. A Chicago St team that had a record of 10-92 the previous 4 seasons. Ole Miss has beaten two poor opponents handily. They are much more experienced starting 5 upperclassmen and they added some key transfers from Duke & Miami FL in the off season who are solid contributors already. They are a top notch defensive team (25th in defensive efficiency last year & 24th after 2 games this year) that will give this young Marquette team big problems on offense. We’ll lay the small number. |
|||||||
11-17-21 | Celtics v. Hawks -4 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series. |
|||||||
11-16-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
#643 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +9 over Michigan, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This line opened up Michigan -10.5 and immediately dropped. We agree with the move as we pegged Seton Hall as a surprise team this season. The Pirates are 2-0 including a 36 point win over Ivy League favorite Yale who has a very solid and veteran team. The Hall is very deep this year with key transfers from Syracuse and USF joining the rotation. They already have 7 different players that have scored double digits this year (in 2 games) and head coach Willard will go 10 deep. They also match up well with Michigan’s top player, big man Dickinson, as the Pirates can run 4 solid big men at him throughout the game. Michigan is also 2-0 but they lost many key players from last year’s team (Livers, Smith, Brown, Wagner, and Davis) and might be a bit overrated entering the season. They struggled at home with Buffalo already this year winning by 12. The Bulls shot just 41% in that game and just 18% from 3 but were able to hang around despite Michigan making 54% of their shots and 40% of their 3’s. The Wolverines have also been terrible at the FT line this year making only 35 of their 62 attempts (56%) which could be their downfall in a tight game. Seton Hall keeps this close and covers. |
|||||||
11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight. |
|||||||
11-15-21 | Pacers v. Knicks -3 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win. |
|||||||
11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points. |
|||||||
11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here. |
|||||||
11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits. |
|||||||
11-10-21 | Bucks v. Knicks -3 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite. |
|||||||
11-09-21 | Hawks v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 98-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points. |
|||||||
11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here. |
|||||||
11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value. |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Navy +21 v. Notre Dame | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#379 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Navy +21 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is the epitome of a potential rush doubling underdog with a Navy team that is 15th in the country in average rushing yards per game at 224RYPG, while Notre Dame averages just 130RYPG (94th). This is not the best scheduling situation for the Irish as they come off two big games against USC and North Carolina with Virginia on deck. It will be easy to look past this Navy team that has just 2 straight up wins on the season. But a closer look shows us the Midshipmen are on a 5-1 spread run and still undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Navy had an impressive showing two games ago when they took Cincinnati to the wire before losing by a TD as a 28.5-point underdog. That same Cincinnati team beat this Notre Dame team a few weeks ago in South Bend. This is the largest spread of the season for Notre Dame, and we don’t feel they can distance themselves here against a pesky Navy team that has been beaten by more than 21-points just once this season and that was the first game of the season. The Irish have one win over 21 points this year and that was a fluke as Wisconsin gifted them 3 INT’s, two of which were pick 6’s late in the game. |
|||||||
11-04-21 | Celtics v. Heat -6 | Top | 95-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent. |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Hornets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 92-114 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points. |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Kings v. Jazz -9 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah. |
|||||||
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it! |
|||||||
10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it. |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Ole Miss v. Auburn -2.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
#196 ASA PLAY ON 10* Auburn -2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Big mismatch situationally. Auburn is coming off a bye week where they were able to rest up and get healthy. Ole Miss will be playing their 5th straight week of brutally tough games without a break. That includes @ Bama, home vs Arkansas, @ Tennessee, home vs LSU, and now @ Auburn. The Rebel offense, while still good, has slowed down immensely since hitting their SEC slate. They were averaging 52.6 PPG in the non-conference but have been held to 31 points or less in 3 of their 4 SEC games. Their defense is among the worst in the nation ranking 100th in total defense and 98th in rush defense. The latter will be a problem here vs an Auburn rushing attack that puts up 198 YPG. The Tigers have a very solid offensive line and should dominated an Rebel defensive front that isn’t all that good and will most likely be worn down after the gauntlet they’ve faced over the last month. Auburn’s QB Nix looked great in his last game after getting a little extra motivation getting benched vs Georgia the previous week. He threw for 290 yards and had an 80% completion rate vs a solid Arkansas team. Auburn’s only 2 losses this year are at home vs Georgia (the best team in the nation) and @ Penn State when the Nittany Lions were at full strength. Ole Miss has played only 2 road games this season and one was a blowout loss @ Alabama and the other they had to hold on to be an OK Tennessee team 31-26. Night game in Auburn should be rockin’ and we’ll lay the small number. |
|||||||
10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +6.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Overreaction here to GB’s potential players being out. This line has moved all the way from -3 to -6.5 in favor of Arizona. WR Adams has not been ruled out and might play here if he has back to back negative Covid tests. Remember he did not test positive, he was simply in close contact. Even if he doesn’t play, the Packers have found a way to be successful without him in the lineup (6-0 with Adams out). This is one of the best teams in the NFL and capable of winning this game regardless of the situation. Let’s put this in perspective. This Arizona team was just favored by 6 at home vs SF a few weeks ago with rookie QB Lance making the first start of his career (Zona won the game 17-10 but they were outgained). Now they favored by a half point more vs Aaron Rodgers? Ridiculous. The last 3 QB’s the Cards have faced were Houston’s rookie Davis Mills, Cleveland’s injured Baker Mayfield, and SF’s rookie Lance. Talk about a huge step on for this defense on Thursday. GB is more than capable of running the ball effectively with RB’s Jones and Dillon vs an Arizona defense that ranks 31st allowing 5.0 YPC. If they can do that and open up play action for Rodgers, this game will be close throughout. The Cards have played 3 home games this year and 2 of those went to the wire vs SF (with rookie QB) and Minnesota (Vikes missed potential game winning FG as time expired). Their only easy home win was last Sunday vs a terrible Houston team. Green Bay’s defense ranks 7th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG and since their season opening debacle @ New Orleans, they’ve allowed an average of just 18 PPG. We don’t see Arizona running away with this game. GB has been tabbed an underdog just 3 times in their last 25 games and the highest number during that stretch was +3 this year @ SF a game GB won. Getting almost a full TD with Aaron Rodgers at QB is worth a take. Green Bay is the play. |
|||||||
10-27-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game in the East between two teams that could contend at seasons end. Brooklyn is clearly led by the two-headed monster of Harden and Durant but they miss Kyrie and his playmaking ability. The Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason to pair with Jimmy Butler and Adebayo to get over the hump. Miami has gotten great play from Tyler Herro off the bench who gives them a legitimate scorer with the second unit. The Nets are 2-2 SU on the season and were just a -5.5-point favorite at home over Washington, who isn’t at the same level of this Heat team. Miami could easily be 3-0 this season as their lone loss came in OT at the Pacers. The Heat blew out the Bucks earlier this season while the Nets lost in Milwaukee. Brooklyn isn’t anything special as a home favorite with a 19-17 ATS record since the start of last season. Miami was a top 10 defensive team a year ago while Brooklyn was a bottom 10 team. Give me the dog and points here. |
|||||||
10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
|||||||
10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover. |
|||||||
10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 vs UTSA, 7 PM ET - Meep, meep…here come the 7-0 #24 ranked UTSA Roadrunners! This is uncharted territory for UTSA who has never been ranked in the top 25 ever before and the impact in the line is evident. The Roadrunners have played the 96th easiest schedule to date with their best win coming against an average 4-3 Memphis team. Their other five FBS wins have come against teams with a combined 8-23 SU record. LA Tech comes into this huge conference showdown off an embarrassing 3-19 performance versus UTEP and will be primed for a game against a ranked opponent. In their game versus UTEP the Bulldogs had 3 crucial turnovers, 2 failed 4th down conversions and only scored once in five possessions in the red zone. Prior to that game, LA Tech had scored in 15 of 16 RZ trips. The Bulldogs have faced the much tougher schedule to date with 2-point loss to 6-0 SMU, 1-pt loss to SEC Mississippi State and a 7-point loss to 18th ranked NC State. The Bulldogs could very well have won all three of those games. UTSA is 10-2 ATS their last twelve road games BUT they were underdogs in all but one of those and they failed to cover as a road favorite. Since 2019 LA Tech has been a home dog just 4 times and they’ve covered three with an average loss margin of just -0.5PPG. |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State +5.5 over Coastal Carolina, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - CC is undefeated this season but their schedule has been one of the easiest in the country. App State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this year. Coastal’s strength of schedule ranks 159th in the nation when including FCS teams schedules which says a lot since there are only 130 FBS teams. To date they have faced Citadel, Kansas, Buffalo, UMass, UL Monroe, and Arkansas State. Not one of those teams ranks inside the Sagarin top 100 and their combined record is 11-26. App State is 4-2 on the season but they’ve played 4 teams that are better than any opponent CC has faced (Miami FL, ECU, UL Lafayette, and Marshall). It’s really tough to even strongly consider their offensive stats when the FBS teams they’ve faced currently rank 130th, 129th, 118th, 116th, and 113th in total defense (out of 130). On the other side of the ball the Chanticleer defense has faced only one offense ranked higher than 71st. App State has 2 losses on the season, a 2-point setback at Miami FL where the Canes needed a late FG to get the win and their most recent game @ ULL. That was by far their worst performance of the year getting blown out by a very solid ULL team but committing 4 turnovers leading to 21 points for ULL. App State was also 0 of 11 on third downs. Just a terrible performance by a solid team and we expect them to bounce back and play very well at home. These 2 met last year in Coastal where App was a 3-point dog and lost by 11. They outgained CC by 45 yards in that game. Now they are getting more points at home this year vs a team that hasn’t played anybody. CC has played 2 road games this year and one of those vs Buffalo went to the wire and turned out as a 3-point win for Coastal. This game will be much tougher. CC hasn’t played in almost 2 weeks which isn’t ideal at this time of year. App State has been great at home where they have a 29-3 record their last 32 and all 3 of those losses were by a FG or less. This sets up for an upset on Wednesday night and we like App State + the points. |
|||||||
10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points. |
|||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here. |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers. |
|||||||
10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover. |
|||||||
10-09-21 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 14-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
#346 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Jose State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Big time red flags over the last month with this SJSU team. Their travel schedule has been brutal and it’s started to show. This will be their 4th road game in their last 5 games. Since September 4th they have played @ USC, @ Hawaii (long travel), @ Western Michigan (long travel), at home last week vs a terrible NM State team and now @ CSU who is coming off a bye week. In their most recent 3 games the Spartans did beat Hawaii 17-13 but they only gained 291 yards on 3.7 YPP vs a Rainbow defense that allows 5.4 YPP on the season (ranked 67th). SJSU then went to Western Michigan and got rolled 23-3 while getting outgained by 228 yards. Last week they played host to New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in college football, and won 37-31 and only outgained the Aggies by 19 yards. That’s an “almost” home loss to a NM State that that is 1-6 this season (only win vs an FCS team) and has won only 5 of their last 26 games. Starting QB Starkel didn’t play in that game and might not here. CSU has shown some solid growth over the last month beating a solid Toledo team on the road 22-6 and they followed that up with a tight 24-14 loss @ #3 Iowa, a game they led at halftime. The Rams outgained Toledo and were out yarded by just 28 total yards vs the Hawkeyes. This team is rested and headed in the right direction. Their opponent SJSU is not. Lay the small number in this one. |
|||||||
10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
#307 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +29.5 over Cincinnati, Friday at 7 PM ET - This is a classic letdown spot for the Bearcats. They are coming off games vs Indiana & Notre Dame and they have UCF on deck. All off-season the talk was if this team can get by IU and the Irish they have a great shot at an undefeated season. Those 2 games were this teams “Super Bowls” so to speak and playing a home game as nearly a 30 point favorite after beating the Irish will be tough. The only other potential roadblock on their way to an undefeated season is probably UCF next week so focusing on Temple won’t be easy. The Owls are better than people might think. Their defense is very solid allowing just 313 YPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they held a potent Memphis offense to just 5.8 YPP and the Tigers had just 385 total yards of offense entering their final offensive possession with 2:30 remaining in the game. Memphis scored with 30 seconds left to cut the Temple lead to 3 points but the Owls held on to win. The Temple offense struggled in mid September but much of that was because their starting QB Mathis (Georgia transfer) was out with an injury. He’s been back for their last 2 games and led the Owls to 72 points while passing for over 600 yards and 2 TD’s. Now we don’t expect him to put up those numbers vs Cincy but he’ll do enough to keep them within this huge number. This isn’t the same Temple team that was routed by Rutgers in the season opener. They are much better and that game was extremely misleading as well with the Owls turning the ball over 6 times in that game. Because of that, we are still getting line value with Temple who is now at full strength. These two AAC rivals last met in 2019 and Cincinnati was a 7.5 point home favorite and beat Temple 15-13. Now they are laying almost 30 points! Temple has covered 5 straight in this series and we think their defense is solid enough to not let the Bearcat offense go wild in this game. Their offense is also underrated and may not need to score many points to keep this within the number. Take the points with Temple. |
|||||||
10-07-21 | Rams -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -2 over Seattle, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - We like this spot for the Rams. They are the better team and coming off a loss last Sunday at home vs Arizona. It wasn’t overly surprising as, despite it being a division game, it was a big time letdown spot for the Rams after beating up on Tampa Bay a week earlier. Despite their 37-20 loss to the Cards, the yardage was about dead even (6.3 YPP to 6.2 YPP) but LA had 2 key turnovers that directly led to 14 points for Arizona. The Rams also missed a FG and were shut out on downs at the Arizona 1-yard line. Seattle is coming off a game they had to win @ San Francisco after losing back to back games vs the Titans & Vikings. Those 2 losses don’t look great for Seattle now as Tennessee just lost to the Jets and Minnesota was ousted at home by Cleveland. The Seahawks did what they needed to do last week picking up a 28-21 win vs the Niners. It wasn’t all that impressive however as they were outgained by a wide margin (6.3 YPP to 4.3 YPP) and SF starting QB Garoppolo didn’t play in the 2nd half due to an injured leg leaving it up to inexperienced rookie Trey Lance. With Lance running the show in the 2nd half the 49ers actually outgained Seattle 230 to 172 but a key fumble from the rookie led to a 14 yard TD drive for the Seahawks which turned out to be the difference in the game. Seattle is also pretty banged up right now with 3 starters on both offense and defense possibly out on Thursday including top WR Metcalfe who has a foot injury. These 2 met 3 times last year (playoffs included) and the Rams won 2 of the 3 games including a 30-20 win @ Seattle in the playoffs and they outgained the Hawks 1,056 to 903. And that was with Jared Goff at QB not Matthew Stafford who is a big upgrade. Seattle used to be a covering machine at home but that hasn’t been the case as of late. They are just 8-10 ATS their last 18 home tilts dating back to the 2018 season. We like the better team, with the better defense, off a loss here. Take the Rams. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Seahawks +2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a must win for Seattle who sits at 1-2 after blowing double digit leads in each of the last 2 weeks vs Tennessee & Minnesota. The Seattle offense has been rolling as they are averaging 7.4 YPP which is tops in the NFL this season. San Fran’s offense is heading in the opposite direction. After lighting up a bad Detroit defense for 8 YPP in their opener the Niners have averaged just 4.5 and 4.6 YPP their last 2 games vs Philly & Green Bay. The 49ers have been outgained by 1.5 YPP in each of their last 2 games and they were extremely lucky to win @ Philly and lucky to even have a chance vs Green Bay. The defense has been struggling as well allowing 6.0+ YPP in each of those games as well which isn’t ideal facing a red hot Seahawks offense. They are also really banged up in the defensive backfield as it looks like they will have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay. We expect Russell Wilson to have a huge day. Wilson has dominated San Francisco since taking over as Seattle’s starting QB in 2012. He is 15-4 SU vs the Niners in his career. The Hawks have also NEVER lost 3 games in a row since Wilson took over. They have lost 2 straight just 8 times in Wilson’s career and they are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS after those losses. The Niners, on the other hand, have been a terrible home favorite with an ATS record of just 5-20-1 ATS in that role since 2014. The better QB in a must win spot getting points is a nice situation. Seattle is the play. |
|||||||
10-03-21 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 112 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -115 on Run Line over San Diego Padres, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET – The Padres got the upset win in extra innings yesterday but are just 2-12 last 14 games! San Diego is 3-9 last 12 times they were off a win. The Giants had won 9 of 10 games before yesterday's loss. San Francisco, with a chance to lock up the NL West Division on the final day of the season, will respond here. They will take advantage of facing Reiss Knehr. The Padres righty is winless in his 4 starts this season and has allowed 7 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in his last 3 starts. San Francisco starts Logan Webb here. The Giants are 20-5 in his starts this season including 11-0 at home where the righty is 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA on the year! The Giants had a 7-game winning streak before losing a tight game last night and 6 of their last 8 victories were wins by a multiple-run margin! Note that San Francisco's 106 wins this season have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin. The Padres 82 losses have included 56 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Giants are 71-27 in games against teams with a losing record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a road blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -220 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a more reasonable -115 price range by utilizing the run line. Take San Francisco Giants 1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
#178 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -3.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Okie State has played the MUCH tougher schedule here and they are 4-0 on the season. 3 of their wins have come vs Tulsa (who played Ohio St to the wire on the road), @ Boise State, and last week at home vs KSU. We have been impressed with their progression the last few weeks. Starting QB Sanders missed the first game of the season, struggled a bit vs Tulsa and Boise, but hit his stride last week throwing for 344 yards at home in a 31-20 win over Kansas State. His top WR Martin returned after missing the last 2 games and had 9 catches for 100 yards. The OSU defense has been playing lights out allowing just 2.6 YPC and 4.5 YPP on the season. They have allowed just 123 yards rushing total in their last 2 games vs Boise & KSU (2 YPC). That will be a problem for a Baylor team that prefers to run the ball (41 rushing attempts per game). The Bears are undefeated, however their first 3 wins were vs Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas. Their win last week vs Iowa State at home was one of the more misleading finals of the season. ISU gained 480 yards on 6.6 YPP in the game. Baylor gained 282 total yards on 5.2 YPP. The Bears offense scored TD’s on their first 3 possessions of the game on 206 total yards. After that, they totaled 66 yards on 30 plays for barely 2 YPP. The Bears didn’t have to show much offensively in their first 3 games vs terrible opponents and they surprises the Cyclones with some new looks, plays, and wrinkles on offense. Once the ISU defense settled in Baylor did almost nothing. Their only points after the first 3 possessions came on a 98 yard kickoff return and a short FG after a long punt return. The favorite has covered 15 of the last 21 meetings and the home team has covered 13 of the last 19. We like OSU at home. |
|||||||
10-01-21 | Houston v. Tulsa -4.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 54 m | Show |
#106 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tulsa -4.5 over Houston, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason the team that sits with a 1-3 record is favored over the team that has a 3-1 record. Tulsa is at home for this one and they’ve played a very tough schedule to date including games @ Ohio State and @ Oklahoma State. In their 28-23 loss @ Oklahoma State they outgained the Cowboys in that game plus held their own in the trenches limiting them to just 3.3 YPC on the ground. OSU had a 99 yard kickoff return for TD in that game which was the difference. When the Golden Hurricanes traveled to Ohio State they more than held their own vs the Buckeyes rolling up 501 total yards to 508 for the Bucks. That game was tight throughout despite the final margin. Tulsa trailed by just a TD @ Ohio State with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. Last Saturday Tulsa was back at home and topped Arkansas State 41-34. It could have been much worse as they held a 17 point lead in the 3rd quarter but ASU scored 13 of the games final 16 points including a 98 yard kickoff return. The stats in the game were extremely lopsided with Tulsa gaining 663 yards to 359 for Arkansas State. Houston steps in with a 3-1 record but they’ve played an easy schedule compared to Tulsa. The Cougs have faced Grambling, Rice, Navy, and Texas Tech thus far. Take out the Grambling game and the 2 wins for Houston vs Rice & Navy were not all that impressive. Those 2 teams are 0-6 SU combined vs FBS teams this season and 5 of those losses were blowouts. The only one that was close was Houston’s 28-20 win over Navy last week. The one decent team the Cougars played, Texas Tech, rolled them by 17 points outgaining Houston by 125 yards. Despite the big difference in opposition this season, Tulsa has gained an average of 6.9 YPP and allowed 5.6 YPP for a differential of +1.3 YPP. Houston’s YPP differential is +0.6 YPP despite their easy slate thus far. These 2 most recently met here in 2019 and Houston topped Tulsa as a 7-point dog despite getting outgained by 150 yards. Some revenge is in order on Friday night. We like this Tulsa team and feel they are undervalued right now. Lay the points here. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings +2 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
#494 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +2 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is an absolute must win for Minnesota. They have played better than their 0-2 record as they really could easily be 2-0. They lost in OT @ Cincinnati when they fumbled getting into FG range for the winning points. Last week they played @ Arizona and missed what would have been the game winning FG as time expired. Now they get their home opener where they are an impressive 16-4 (80%) their last 20 as a home dog dating back to 2012. The Vikings got their rushing attack rolling last week with 177 yards on 6.6 YPC and they are facing a Seattle team that has allowed 162 YPG this year on the ground (31st). Minny RB Cook was banged up last week but all indications are he will play on Sunday. Seattle has a great home field advantage but laying points on the road had not been a money maker for this team. They are 1-0 this year in that role but just 5-14-2 ATS laying point on the road from 2016 – 2020. Seattle blew a lead at home vs Tennessee at home last week and lost in OT. The were outgained by 135 yards in that game. They’ve been outgained by 90 yards on the season thus far. Last year Minnesota was +6.5 @ Seattle and lost a tight game 27-26 but outgained the Hawks 449 to 314. We love this spot for the Vikings and expect them to win this game outright. We’ll take the points here. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 6 straight games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has also won 3 straight games when facing the Pirates and the combined score of those games is 35-16. Look for another dominating win here as Ranger Suarez gives the Phillies a big edge over Pittsburgh and starter William Crowe. Even though Crowe had success against the Phillies earlier this season that start was at home and he is now on the road for this one Crowe has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season and has an 8.25 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Suarez has been fantastic for the Phillies this season including a 1.92 ERA in his 10 starts! The Pirates are 14-32 against southpaw starters this season and 18-42 in day games this season! Philadelphia is 33-18 in day games this season. The Phillies won by a multiple-run margin yesterday and note that Philadelphia's 80 wins this season have included 50 by more than a 1-run margin. The Pirates 96 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 13 games over .500 in home games this season and Pittsburgh is 23-55 in road games this season and 29-60 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -130 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | UTSA +3.5 v. Memphis | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
#387 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This is a really rough spot for the Tigers. They are coming off a HUGE home win over SEC Mississippi State and the week prior to that they beat rival Arkansas State 55-50. Last week’s 31-29 win over MSU was very deceiving. We were on Memphis so we picked up a win but if you would have shown us the final stats before the game was played, we would not have been on the Tigers. Memphis was -14 first downs and -222 yards in that win over Mississippi State. They had a 94-yard punt return and 49-yard fumble return both for TD’s. If they take UTSA lightly after last week’s big win, they will lose here. They may lose even if they play well. UTSA is a very solid, veteran team. They come into this game with a 3-0 record including a win @ Illinois in their other road game this season. Say what you will about the Illini, but in their other 2 home games they beat Nebraska and nearly beat Maryland so that was a very good road win for UTSA who had 497 total yards of offense in that game. Last week they Road Runners topped Middle Tennessee State by 14 points but it should have been much worse as they won the yardage battle by +253. Their senior QB Harris is one of the better “unknown” signal callers in the country, just ask Illinois. We have an edge at that position as the Memphis QB is a freshman that’s played in 3 games in his career. Dating back to last season UTSA has won 6 of their last 7 games with their only loss coming in their bowl game 31-24 vs a very good Louisiana team that finished last year 10-1. We’re getting the better team, getting points, in a better situation. Take Texas San Antonio. |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia -4 over Wake Forest, Friday at 7 PM ET - We love this spot at home for UVA. They are off an embarrassing 59-39 loss @ North Carolina last Saturday. It was the Cavs first loss of the year. They are taking on a Wake team that is 3-0 but they’ve played all home games and faced a very easy schedule thus far. The Deacs topped an FCS team and a bad FBS team (Old Dominion) to start the season and then thumped a reeling Florida State team last week. While FSU isn’t very good – they lost at home the previous week to Jacksonville State – it was still a big win for WF vs a name program. The Wake defense has put up great numbers this year holding their 3 opponents to a combined 40 points but the offenses they’ve faced have been nothing close to what they’ll see on Saturday. Minus their FCS opponent, they have faced Old Dominion (122nd in total offense) and FSU (68th in total offense). Worse yet, those 2 teams aren’t adept at moving the ball through the air (ODU 118th in passing offense / FSU 84th in passing offense) and now they face a UVA team that leads the nation averaging 488 YPG through the air. The Cavs also rank 3rd in total offense and 11th in YPP offense. Wake’s defense takes a huge step up in competition on Saturday. UVA just saw one of the top offenses in the nation (UNC) last week and didn’t fare well but you can bet they’ll make adjustments this week and this will be a step down in competition for the Cavaliers. This is a game Virginia has been waiting for after losing 40-23 at Wake last year (Wake as a 2-point favorite). The yardage in the game was very close but the Cavs had 3 turnovers (0 for Wake), missed a FG, and were shut out on downs inside the WF 10-yard line. They had their chances to say the least. They haven’t been able to host WF since 2012 so it’s been almost a decade since they’ve had a shot at the Deacs here at home. Virginia has won 18 of their last 20 home games and only 3 of those 18 wins have come by less than a TD. Lay it. |
|||||||
09-22-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -140 on Run Line over New York Yankees, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Phillies have won 5 straight games against right-handed starters but Keegan Akin is a lefty so why would that matter? Here is the key point we are making: the last two lefties the Phillies faced were the crafty veteran Rich Hill and the very talented John Means of the Orioles. Keegan Akin does not fall into either of those two categories of southpaws! He is in his 2nd MLB season and has gone 2-10 with a 6.93 ERA in 23 games (16 starts).. In his 10 road starts this season Akin is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA! The Orioles lefty is highly likely to struggle here and that means this game should be a blowout because the Baltimore bullpen is also one of the absolute worst in the majors this season. To stay in this game the Orioles would have to score plenty and, honestly, they will be lucky to score even a few in this one! Baltimore is up against a surging Zack Wheeler. The Phillies right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA this month and has registered 23 strikeouts in 17 and 2 / 3 innings during this stretch. Wheeler has a 2.04 ERA in his 3 career starts versus the Orioles. More dominance expected here and he should get plenty of run support as Akin gets rocked again in this one. The Phillies won by just 1 run yesterday but note that Philadelphia's 77 wins this season have included 48 by more than a 1-run margin. The Orioles 103 losses have included 83 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Phillies are 10 games over .500 in home games this season and Baltimore is 28-73 in games against teams with a winning record this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -300 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-21-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Monday at 7:05 PM ET – After some struggles, the Yankees seemed to turn the corner with a 5-2 stretch over 7 games. That was before back to back losses to wrap up their series with Cleveland. The good news for the Yankees is they now welcome the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx and we look for New York to respond after the back to back losses. Texas has lost 4 of 5 and the Rangers have been held to 2 or less runs in all 5 of those games! The Yankees got drilled yesterday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding this. Rookie AJ Alexy starts for Rangers here and he just got used in a long relief role and got crushed so this takes the luster off his first two starts being successful. Look for a carry-over from the rough relief outing right into a tough outing in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for rookie starters! Yankees start Nestor Cortes and the lefty has a 2.70 ERA in his 11 starts this season and New York has won all but 3 of those starts! The Yankees are 4-1 in his home starts this season. The Yankees get back on track here and note that New York's 83 wins have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 94 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 53-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-52 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -260 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -140 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
#287 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +3.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We have some serious week 1 overreaction taking place here. Prior to last week Arizona was favored by -1.5 in this game and now that they destroyed Tennessee last week and Minnesota lost in OT @ Cincinnati, this line has crossed the key number of 3 and we’re getting the Vikings at +3.5. We’ll take it. Minnesota will bring their “A” game here after losing a tough one last week in OT. The Vikes outgained Cincy in the game and had the ball moving into FG territory in OT when RB Cook fumbled. Cincy then kicked the game winning FG 2 minutes later as time expired. Minny HC Zimmer has been fabulous as an underdog off a SU loss going 21-6-1 ATS their last 28 in that role. Arizona looked great last week vs a Tennessee team we had projected to regress big time this year. The Titans despite finishing with 11 wins in the regular season, had a point differential of just +52 which ranked them 7th in the AFC and 12th in the NFL. Over half of their wins last year (6) were by 3 points or less or in overtime. Tennessee was -13 YPG last season and right around dead even in their yards per play differential (+0.1 YPP differential). They weren’t nearly as good as their record last year and last week they showed that. 3 turnovers by Tennessee led directly to 14 points for Arizona including a 1-yard TD drive by the Cards after a Titan fumble. Arizona QB Murray played the game of his life vs a poor Tennessee defense that finished last year ranked 29th in total defense and 24th in scoring defense. We expect Murray to come back to earth this week vs what we project to be a very solid Minnesota defense. Look for the Vikings to get the running game rolling this week behind Dalvin Cook. Arizona’s rush defense was near the bottom of the NFL last year but Tennessee had to abandoned their running game pretty quickly last week after getting down big early. We like the coaching edge with Zimmer as well in this game as Arizona coach Kingsbury is just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since taking over in Arizona. Take the points. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Cincinnati -3.5 v. Indiana | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - After finishing with a solid 6-2 record but we felt they were due for a regression this year. The benefitted from a +8 turnover margin last year, they were outgained on the year despite their winning record, beat only 1 team that ended last year with a winning record, and their QB isn’t anywhere near 100%. Michael Penix is just 8 months removed from a 2nd ACL tear on the same knee. Our word from IU is that he is probably only 80% at best. You can see it in his play. His legs were a big part of his success at QB and he isn’t comfortable running yet this season. He’s very uncomfortable in the pocket with pressure, which is understandable, but that does not lead to success throwing the ball. He’s barely averaging 4.0 yards per pass attempt which means IU has become a dink and dunk offense. Their running game has been poor averaging 2.5 YPC vs Iowa and 3.6 YPC vs a bad Idaho team. That means in order to beat Cincy, most likely Penix will need a huge game and we just don’t see it. The Bearcats defensive front is every bit as good as Iowa’s who put constant pressure on Penix and held the Hoosiers to just 6 points. They bounced back after that loss and beat Idaho but not nearly as impressive as the score indicated. IU averaged just 4.8 YPP vs the Vandals and had 2 special teams TD’s in the game. Cincy was one of the best teams in the nation last year going 9-1 with their only loss coming by 3-points vs Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They return many key players from a great defense that allowed 16 PPG and just 4.6 YPP. They also bring back one of the better QB’s in the country as Desmond Ridder threw for 2,300 yards, 19 TD’s and rushed for almost 800 more. The Bearcats have won their first two games by a combined score of 91-21. That includes a 49-14 win over Miami Oh in week one and the Redhawks turned around and nearly won at Minnesota the following week showing how impressive that Cincinnati win was. We’re laying points on the road here but Cincinnati is the much better overall team at this time. Once Penix gets back to 100%, the Hoosiers will be much better but he’s nowhere near that right now. Lay it. |
|||||||
09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Minnesota Twins, Friday at 7:07 PM ET – Hyun-Jin Ryu is off a poor start for the Blue Jays but he had been pitching very well. Ryu had a bad start at Baltimore but before that he had only one truly rough outing the last 5. In the other 4 of the 5 outings, Ryu allowed just 14 hits in 25 innings. Look for him to prove to be tough on a Twins team that has lost 6 of 8 games and have scored an average of only 3.8 runs in last 10 games. In fact, removing two high-scoring wins from the equation, Minnesota averaged just 2.9 runs in the other 8 games. Look for the red hot Blue Jays to roll in this game. Toronto is on a 13-2 run and has scored an average of 8 runs per game during this stretch. The Jays face Twins starter Michael Pineda in this one. The right-hander has a 12.34 ERA in last 3 starts against Toronto and allowed 7 homers in those 3 outings. Pineda enters this start off a good outing versus the Royals but had a 5.80 ERA in his 9 prior starts. The Blue Jays stay hot here and note that Toronto's 82 wins have included 68 by more than a 1-run margin! The Twins 83 losses have included 64 by more than a 1-run margin. Also, the Blue Jays are 61-44 versus right-handers and Minnesota is 16-33 versus southpaws this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays hot streak is likely to continue this evening. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a "pick" money (-110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-15-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +110 on Run Line over Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET – Tampa Bay got the win yesterday but this followed losses in 7 of 12 games overall and 4 of 5 road games. Toronto had been red hot before yesterday's loss. The Blue Jays had won 15 of 17 games before the loss yesterday. 67 of Toronto's 81 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. With the pitching edge here, look for another blowout win for Toronto as they bounce back from yesterday's defeat. Robbie Ray gets the call for the Jays. He has held the Rays to a total of just 3 earned runs on 11 hits while striking out 24 over 21 innings in his last 3 starts against them. All of those were within the past 4 months by the way. The point is that Robbie Ray has fared well in the current season versus the Rays. The Tampa Bay starter in this one is Michael Wacha and he has pitched a little better of late but he did not face a team that is hot-hitting right now like the Blue Jays are. Toronto has averaged 8 runs a game in the 15 victories during their 15-3 run. Wacha has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season as a starter with a 1-3 record away from home. Toronto is 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss. Tampa Bay scoring an average of 3.7 runs last 6 games. Toronto scored 5 or more runs in 12 of last 14 games. Hotter batters and a huge pitching edge and you can see why the big Blue Jays bounce back is likely this afternoon. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play-on team is available in a plus money (+110) price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
#474 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The Patriots will be one of the most improved teams in the NFL. It’s actually somewhat amazing they finished with a respectable 7-9 record as we’d argue the Covid situation affected this team more than any other. They had more opt outs on the season than every other team and a number of players that remained were hit hard including QB Newton who was never the same after contracted Covid. Newton is now gone and Belichick is going with rookie QB Jones from Alabama as the starter. It he simply manages the game and doesn’t make mistakes this team will be very solid. They spent more in free agency in the off season than any other team and they did so on very solid players as they always do. The New England defense will be one of the best in the NFL and facing a banged up Miami OLine. Fins starting LT Jackson is on the Covid list and may not play leaving a rookie or a lineman they signed 2 weeks ago as the starter. Pats are 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home vs Miami including 21-11 win here last year and outgained the Dolphins by 1.1 YPP in that game. New England was a 6.5 point favorite in that game and now they are laying 3 despite being vastly improved from a year ago. Miami, because they made the playoffs, we feel is a bit overvalued as they were outgained by 0.6 YPP by their opponents. Tua was a disaster last year (44.8 QBR – 26th in the NFL) and in his lone start vs Belichick’s depleted defense he threw for just 145 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 pick. We look for him to struggle again on Sunday. The host has covered 16 of the last 21 in this AFC East rivalry and we have the Patriots winning by more than a FG here. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
#377 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +7 over Michigan, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - This is a pure value play on Washington. This line prior to last week’s games was Michigan -1 or -1.5. Now because Michigan beat Western Michigan handily and Washington was upset by an FCS team, this number moved through -3, -4, and -6 (three key numbers) and onto another key number -7. That’s simply too much of an overreaction after one week. Washington look poor last week no way around that. They turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t create a single turnover. The Huskies tallied just 291 total yards in their 13-7 loss vs Montana. UW had 11 more first downs, won the overall yardage & time of possession battle and the defense held the Grizzlies to 3.4 yards per play. They were flat and turnovers (-3) decided the game. We expect Washington to rally big time this week as they are now backed into a corner so to speak off that loss. The defense has a chance to be elite. Michigan ran the ball at will last week vs a small MAC defensive front but that won’t happen this week. Wolverine starting QB McNamara only completed 9 passes and didn’t have to do much to get this win. He’s still fairly inexperienced and will have to do much more here to get this win vs a big step up in competition. That was made much more difficult with Michigan WR Bell (top offensive player on the team) was injured last week and is now out for the season. The Wolverine defense was OK last week but WMU did get into Michigan territory 6 times and came away with only 14 points. Washington has not been an underdog of 7 or more points since 2016. This team had an energetic week of practice after their upset loss and they will be ready here. This one will be close. Take the points. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 -130 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET – The Giants are rolling once again. With yesterday's 6-1 win here over the Cubs, San Francisco has won 7 of last 8 games. Also, all 5 wins in their current 5-game winning streak have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Cubs start Zach Davies here. The right-hander has allowed 8 earned runs in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in last 2 home starts. Davies is 6-10 on the season and has a 5.58 ERA in his home starts this year. Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants and is a fantastic 13-5 on the season including 7-2 in road starts. Gausman has a 1.95 ERA on the road this season! Gausman allowed zero earned runs and struck out 10 in his lone start versus Chicago this season. Davies got hit very hard and was unable to complete 5 innings in his lone start versus the Giants this season. San Francisco is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Gausman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an reasonable money (-130) price range on the run line. Take San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs -8 | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -8 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - This spread opened -6.5 over the summer and has pushed through the key number of -7 with no buyback whatsoever. That speaks volumes. Our power rating on this is closer to -10 so we still think there is value with the Bucs. We expect Dallas to start the season slow on both sides of the ball. Offensively QB Prescott will be taking his first live snaps in almost a year as he was injured last October and hasn’t played since. Defensively the Cowboys were poor last year ranking 23rd in both YPG & YPP allowed. Now they are learning a different system under new DC Quinn and it will take them some time to get acclimated. Tampa is the opposite. They return all 22 starters which is extremely rare in the NFL and we look for them to be clicking on all cylinders right away. Last season the Bucs had to find their way so to speak with new QB Brady but they improved greatly as the season went on. Tampa scored 25 or more points in just 6 of their first 12 games and then put up 26+ in their final 8 games averaging 34 PPG during that stretch (including playoffs). WR Mike Evans was recently quoted as saying the TB offense is “miles” ahead of where it was last year at this time. We expect the Bucs defense to be one of the tops in the league again in 2021. They were #1 vs the run last year allowing just 81 YPG. They should be able to take away the Dallas rushing attack with the Cowboys top run blocker and top overall OL Martin out for this one due to Covid. That means Prescott will need a huge game in order for the Boys to stay in this one and we just don’t see that happening. Too much time away from full speed action for him just to turn it on and be at the top of his game. He hasn’t been able to work with his receivers vs real defensive bullets and his top WR Lamb has been out for a few weeks with Covid and just returned. Tampa wins this one by double digits. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Mets -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -1.5 -100 on Run Line over Miami Marlins, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET – The Marlins got the win in extra innings yesterday but that was with their top pitcher on the mound. Now Jesus Luzardo gets the call. The Miami southpaw is 4-6 with a 6.53 ERA and his repertoire of pitches pales in comparison to that of the stuff yesterday's starter, Sandy Alcantara, has. Luzardo has been charged with 8 earned runs on 15 hits in 10 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts versus NL East opponents and both of those starts were at home just like this one is against another divisional foe. The Marlins had lost 13 of 19 before coming up with the tight win in 10 innings yesterday. The Mets had won 8 of 10 games prior to yesterday's loss. Look for Marcus Stroman to help lead the Mets to victory here. The New York right-hander has a 2.93 ERA on the season and New York is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. He has a 2.84 ERA this season in starts versus the Marlins. 9 of the Mets last 10 wins have come by a margin of 2+ runs and our computer math model for this game is strongly favoring a big win for the Mets as Stroman comes up with a gem and the Mets bats (6.6 runs per game in that 8-2 run) bounce back from yesterday's loss. New York is set up well for a big road blowout win here and Stroman should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in an even money (-100) price range on the run line. Take New York Mets -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-05-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -120 on Run Line over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET – Jon Lester is off a good start at Cincinnati but quality outings certainly have been the exception rather than the norm for the veteran lefty this season. Lester, in his other recent starts, has had to work out of a lot of jams. The fact is he is very hittable and the lefty is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the road this season. The Brewers counter with Corbin Burnes and he has been fantastic this season. The Brewers are a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts and 7 of those 8 wins were by 2+ runs! The Cardinals are off a shutout loss in yesterday's match-up and have now lost 8 of last 11 games against right-handed starters. St Louis is very likely to struggle again here as Burnes has held his opponent to just 1 earned run or less in 9 of last 11 starts! Milwaukee is 37-18 in day games this season. Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this season and has allowed a total of just 1 earned run in 17 innings versus St Louis! The Brewers just faced Lester about two weeks ago and the southpaw allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 and 1 / 3 innings and he did not record a single strikeout. 65 of the Brewers 83 victories have been by 2+ runs this season while 49 of the Cardinals 65 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. Milwaukee is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Burnes should once again dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very reasonable -120 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
09-04-21 | Utah State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show |
#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State +17 over Washington State, Saturday at 11 PM ET - We expect USU to be drastically improved this year. This team was a train wreck last year and it was mainly due their leadership at the top. Former HC Gary Andersen was terrible. He quit at Wisconsin to take the Oregon State job. He then quit partway through the season on OSU and ended up back at Utah State where he was before he took the Badger job. USU was a rudderless ship last year and the players tanked the season to say the least. The players were so distraught they opted to not even play their final game of the season. They have since hired former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who was extremely successfully at ASU with a 51-37 record including 6 bowl appearances. He brought a few players with him from Arkie State including his starting QB Bonner who along with last year’s USU starter Peasley gives the Aggies a decent QB room. Word from Logan, Utah is the players love their new coach and have an entirely different attitude entering this season. They are experienced with 19 starters back and Anderson brought in a number of key Power 5 transfers from programs like Michigan, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Kansas who will contribute. This is a play against WSU as well. It’s really tough to lay 17 points with a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone over the last few seasons. The Cougs allowed 38 PPG last season (1-3 overall record) and 32 PPG in 2019. They allowed 450+ YPG in both of those seasons. 2nd year head coach Rolovich came from Hawaii and he likes to run an up tempo offense trying to outscore opponents but last year they averaged just 27 PPG. Utah State should be able to put points on the board in this game and Washington State will have a tough time running away with this. Take the big points with USU. |
|||||||
09-03-21 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
#153 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +3.5 over Northwestern, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as a small favorite in this game so we feel the value is on Sparty. They had a rough season last year with a 2-5 record, however it was their first year under new HC Tucker and we expect some solid improvement with a full year in both the offensive and defensive system. They return almost all of their key offensive players including an OLine that has combined to make 147 career starts which is the 4th most nationally. MSU upgrades at QB where they struggled greatly last year by adding Temple transfer Anthony Russo who had over 6,000 yards passing and 44 TD’s in his Temple career. The Spartans running game was poor last year but that should also improve greatly with a steady offensive line and Wake Forest transfer Walker starting at RB. Northwestern lost as much experience as any team in the country. They surprised many by winning the Big 10 West last year but bring back only 8 starters. The Cats lost their starting QB, most of their offensive line, and their top 4 pass catchers. Defensively they lost many of their key contributors including their top corner (to the NFL), top 2 pass rushers, and top 2 LB’s. Hunter Johnson was named the starting QB of the inexperienced offense and that’s not a good thing for NW. He was handed the job in 2019 and proceeded to complete just 46% of his passes, threw just 1 TD, and led an offense that averaged 14 PPG in his 6 starts. Their only win with Johnson at the helm was vs UNLV and he battled again for the job last year and did not play a single down during the season. Now he’s back as the starter. Not good. MSU had a down year in 2020, while NW won the Big 10 West yet in their only meeting a season ago the Spartans topped the Cats 29-20. It wasn’t a fluke as MSU outgained Northwestern by almost 100 yards and dominated in the trenches with 195 yards rushing while holding the Cats to 63. Now we expect a big improvement from Michigan State while Northwestern takes a big step back. No reason to believe MSU won’t win again this year taking that into consideration. NW has very little home field advantage with a 9-9 SU record here the last 3 season (very few fans, small stadium that is often overrun by opposing fans). Take the points with Michigan State |
|||||||
09-02-21 | South Florida v. NC State -18 | Top | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 37 h 8 m | Show |
#142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -18 over South Florida, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We like NC State to be a surprise team in the ACC. We rate them as the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson. The Wolfpack are coming off an 8-4 season and 2 of those losses were by 3 points or less. They are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 20 starters returning. Not only that, they have 28 players we’d consider “starters” due to the number of minutes they’ve played even when not starting. Their QB Leary played last year but was banged up for much of the season and he is back healthy. They have a solid and experienced offensive line, they bring back all of their top RB’s and WR’s and their defense returns it’s top 12 tacklers from last year. USF is in rebuilding mode in HC Jeff Scott’s 2nd year. The Bulls were decimated by Covid last year (as many teams were) and finished 1-8 with their only win coming vs the Citadel. 5 of their 8 losses came by at least 20 points. Since the start of the 2019 season this team has won only 5 games and 2 of those 5 wins were vs non FBS opponents (the Citadel & South Carolina St). They have a new starting QB Fortin who threw only 8 passes in last year’s injury riddled season. The offense topped 4.5 yards per play only 3 times in 8 games vs FBS teams last year and breaking in a new QB they will probably struggle early in the year. The Bulls defense was poor last year to say the least allowing 40 PPG on 441 YPG including getting whipped up front giving up 212 YPG rushing. They put zero pressure on the opposing QB netting just 7 sacks the entire season – only Navy & Arizona had fewer. USF has played 3 Power 5 teams the last 2 seasons (Notre Dame, Wisconsin, & Georgia Tech) and they’ve lose those games by an average score of 38-3. This is a bad first match up for this team and we expect a 20+ point win for NC State. |
|||||||
09-02-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs (-130) over San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The money line on this game has moved toward the Giants and the run line has followed suit as of early Thursday morning. This has put the Brewers +1.5 runs into a very playable range as it is now around a -130 price. The Giants, even if they win this game, have 25 wins by just 1-run this season. Only two teams in the majors have more than that. The point is that San Francisco may not even win this game and, if they do, it might be by just a single run. Only 59 of the Giants 133 games this season have been a SF win by a margin of 2 or more goals. With the way San Francisco is slumping, that is likely to be 59 of 134 after this one goes into the books. The Giants have lost 4 straight games overall and also 4 straight home games. San Francisco, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 23-18 this season against left-handed starters. The Brewers have been the best road team in the majors this season with a record of 46-23. Milwaukee starter Eric Lauer has given up some big hits to the Giants in recent meetings at San Francisco but still he is 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them with only 14 hits allowed in 18 innings. San Francisco has been in a slump at the plate and has been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of last 14 games. The Brewers have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 4 or more runs in 8 of those 11 games. Giants starter Logan Webb has great numbers this season but too much weight is being put on that and not enough on the overall recent play of these teams and that has led to line value with Milwaukee in this spot. The fact the Brewers just saw Webb (for the first time) 4 weeks ago also should help them here. Brewers are 66-37 against right-handed starters this season and, just like last year, Webb is again struggling more against left-handed bats than righties. Just like yesterday's game, look for the Brewers to have left-handed bats for at least 4 of the 8 position players. Look for the hot team to get the upset but, if they do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 runs on the run line. |
|||||||
08-29-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -135 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Astros are 11-3 against the Rangers this season. Zack Greinke is 3-0 last 3 starts versus Texas and those victories were all by multiple-run margins - an aggregate score of 21 to 9. Greinke is 6-0 with a 2.34 ERA on the road this season. Taylor Hearn starts for the Rangers here and is 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA in his 3 home starts on the year. Texas is on an 11-35 run and 30 of those 35 losses have been by more than 1 run! You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here to get a reasonable price on an Astros team that should dominate here. Greinke in line for a great start and the Rangers are 22-56 against right-handed starters this season. Houston is a fantastic 36-16 in divisional games this season and still working hard to hold off Oakland at the top of the AL West. That said, Greinke and the Astros are unlikely to let Hearn and the Rangers stand in the way on Sunday afternoon. The Astros have won 7 of 9 games and 18 of their last 20 victories have been by 2+ runs. Houston is set up well for a big road rout win here and Greinke should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a reasonable -135 price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Bucs -3.5 v. Texans | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 61 h 57 m | Show |
#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover. |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this potential match-up for Saturday and it could not have been set up more perfectly. The Phillies off a big win in extra innings at home yesterday and can build off that momentum here. That is because the Diamondbacks are starting Humberto Mejia while the Phillies are starting Kyle Gibson. Arizona's Mejia has only 4 career starts at the MLB level and he has been hit at a .302 mark in those outings. Also, though he has some good numbers at the lower level of the minors, he has struggled facing hitters at the AAA level. In his 12 starts this year at the AAA level he compiled a 5.93 ERA and was hit at a .305 clip. As you can see, he has been hit at over .300 when facing hitters above the AA level whether in the minors or the majors. Mejia just started last week at Pittsburgh and he only allowed 2 earned runs but 6 hits in 5 innings and he walked a pair. Keep in mind, this was against a bad Pirates team and now he faces a Phillies team still fighting hard to remain in playoff contention. Philadelphia will be bolstered today by having Kyle Gibson on the mound. He is coming off a strong outing and has had 5 quality starts in his last 6 outings. Gibson allowed only 9 earned runs in 32 and 2 / 3 innings in those 5 starts and also has had strong success against the Diamondbacks in his career. This Arizona team, with yesterday's loss, dropped to 17-50 in road games this season. The Diamondbacks, prior to yesterday's one run loss, were on a run in which 19 of 23 losses were by 2+ runs. 18 of the Phillies last 25 wins were by 2+ runs before yesterday's win by a single run. Philadelphia is set up well for a big home blowout win here and Gibson should dominate. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 510 h 30 m | Show |
#300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +7 over Nebraska, Saturday, August 28th at 12:00 PM ET - There is always a lot of optimism in Huskerland entering every season, however the results have not matched the “fan” expectations. This team is favored by a full TD, on the road in their Big 10 opener yet they are just 9-17 SU overall in conference play under head coach Scott Frost. They have won just 4 conference games by more than 7 points in the last 3 years. We believe they are overvalued entering the season (as per usual) and their opponent in game 1 we feel is a bit undervalued right now. The Illini had a rough 2-6 season last year but they were decimated at QB pushing all the way down to their 4th stringer due to injury/illness. This year they expect senior Brandon Peters, former Michigan starter, to have a big season and we agree. He’s operating behind a very solid, veteran offensive line that could turn out to be one of the better units in the conference. The defense returns 16 of their top 18 tacklers and new head coach Bret Bielema knows defense and likes what he sees on that side of the ball. Up front they should be vastly improved defensively with their entire DLine coming back, all upperclassmen, and a few key LB’s back in the line up that were injured last season. They should be able to limit a Nebraska running game that relies too heavily on QB Martinez (leading rusher last year). The Huskers don’t have a single RB returning that rushed from more than 75 yards the entire 2020 season. That means Nebraska may have to have a big day through the air to win this one and we simply don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez who finished 12th in the Big 10 averaging only 150 YPG passing last year. Despite their struggles last season, the Illini were able to waltz into Lincoln and whip the Huskers 41-23 on nearly 500 yards of total offense. The year before Nebraska went to Illinois and barely escaped with a 42-38 win. We expect Illinois to have a solid shot at winning this game at home and getting a TD is generous. Bielema and his new staff have pretty much given the fans and media no access to practices so Nebraska will be guessing a bit when it comes to what Illinois will be doing on both sides of the ball here. Take the points. |
|||||||
08-22-21 | Mets v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +105 on Run Line over New York Mets, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Some added value here as the line has moved toward the Mets. That is because Marcus Stroman is on the mound and has some solid numbers this season for New York. However, David Price certainly has some solid numbers for the Dodgers too and we like the fact that LA has won 9 straight games and the Mets have lost 8 of 9. The value here is on the run line rather than laying a big price and this is true even though a number of recent Dodgers wins have been by just 1 run. The Mets are down to their 3rd and 4th string options at catcher right now as Sisco and Mazeika because both McCann and Nido are out with injuries. This can be tough on a pitching staff and the Mets slump likely to continue here. Also, Stroman has allowed 3 homers in his last 2 road starts and the Dodgers did explode for 3 homers in yesterday's game. On the season the Mets are 13-24 against lefties and Price should have another solid outing here. The Dodgers are a perfect 6-0 against the Mets this season and 59 of 78 wins on the season by 2 or more runs. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a price range around +105 on the run line. Take Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-21-21 | Colts v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
#422 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This line opened as a pick-em and immediately jumped to Vikings -2.5 for good reason. Minnesota looked terrible in last week’s 33-6 home loss to the Broncos and we expect a big bounce back performance here. Head coach Mike Zimmer didn’t play any of his starters last week but was still extremely upset with his team’s effort & performance and let them know it. They’ve had a very good week of practice and this team will play with some urgency after last week’s result. Zimmer also plans on playing most of his starters on Saturday. He’s always put a lot of emphasis on winning pre-season games with a 20-7 overall record which includes last week’s loss. Indy takes the road after beating Carolina on a last second FG in their opener on Monday. The Colts had to score 10 points in the final 7:00 minutes to come from behind and get the win. Now they are on a short week having been the only game last Sunday. Indy never led in that game until they kicked the game winning FG with 7 seconds remaining. The Colts had more yardage overall but also ran 21 more offensive snaps compared to the Panthers and still barely won the game. We know their starting QB Wentz is still not ready to go after an injury and won’t play in this game. Minnesota will definitely be the more motivated team in this NFLX game and we expect them to win by more than a FG. Take the Vikings. |
|||||||
08-21-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - The Nationals have suddenly won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 7-game losing streak and losses in 12 of last 13 games. Yesterday the Nats got the better of the Brewers and having a lefty on the mound. Milwaukee is only a .500 team against lefties this season but is a dominant 60-36 against right-handed starters and 34-16 in day games this season. With the Brewers starting righty Paolo Espino, the Brewers lineup will have some of their left-handed lumber back in the lineup after they were held out of yesterday's lineup and then used in a pinch-hit role. Washington starter Espino has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts - all Nationals losses - and two of those were at home. Nationals are also 0-3 overall this season in Espino's road starts. He'll likely prove to be no match for Milwaukee in this one. The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game. Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 7 appearances (6 starts) and has a fantastic 1.53 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 2.89 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Nationals. The Brewers are 21-10 last 31 games and 18 of the 21 victories came by 2+ run margin or more. Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season. Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best (#2 out of 30) with a 3.16 ERA while the Nationals bullpen has been one of the worst (#28 out of 30) with a 5.52 ERA. Also, Washington is 14-23 against left-handed starters this season and Brewers have won 6 of last 7 versus right-handed starters. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-20-21 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Brett Anderson enters off a rare rough outing and, of all teams, it was against the Pirates! However, we can not ignore the fact that Anderson entered that start with a 1.40 ERA over the 5-start stretch before that rare dud. Anderson has a 2.81 ERA in 6 home starts this season. He'll be opposed by Patrick Corbin of the Nationals in this one. The Washington left-hander has a 6.36 ERA on the road this year and the Nationals have lost 8 of those 11 starts. Corbin has given up 6 homers in his last 3 starts. Washington is off back to back wins but this was on the heels of a 5-19 run. Milwaukee is off a loss but that was on the heels of an 18-6 run. This is clearly a case of two teams that are, overall, heading opposite directions! Additionally, 27 of the Brewers last 31 wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs so we have no hesitation in laying the run line in this one and grabbing Milwaukee at -1.5 runs. Nationals are 21-35 on the road this season and 13-23 against left-handed starters. Also lets not forget about the bullpens here and Milwaukee rates a huge edge in that department on the season as well as the last 30 days. In fact, over the last 30 days the Brewers have a 3.12 ERA and rank 2nd in bullpen ERA while the Nationals bullpen ranks 28th with a 5.72 ERA. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -105 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-19-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Astros have lost 4 straight games including the first 3 games of this 4-game set with the Royals. We don't see that continuing here. No way. Luis Garcia gives Houston a big edge on the mound against Kansas City in this one. The Royals are starting Mike Minor and he has a 6.84 ERA over 50 innings spanning his last 9 starts. The Astros Garcia is 9-3 in his last dozen decisions and has a 3.30 ERA this season with opponents hitting just .217 against him. Houston had lost Wednesday's game after a 1-run loss Tuesday. Prior to this the Astros were 4-1 this season when they were on the road and coming off a loss by a 1-run margin. After yesterday's tight defeat in which Houston outhit KC but lost 3-2 on the scoreboard, the Astros bounce back strong. Houston has the best run differential in the AL so far this season with positive 161 runs. The Royals rank 26th in the majors in that same category with negative 106 runs. 51 of Kansas City's 67 losses have come by 2+ runs this season. 58 of the Astros 70 wins have come by 2+ runs this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a -110 pick'em price range on the run line. Take Houston Astros -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-17-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#931 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals have lost 12 of 13 games. The Blue Jays have won 13 of 19 games. Of course this, plus a big starting pitching edge, has a lot to do with the factors behind why Toronto is a huge money line favorite in this game by odds of about 2 to 1. We would not suggest laying a price like that but we do like the Blue Jays on the run line here. Though the Nationals have had a fair number of one-run losses recently, the Blue Jays have been the masters of the big wins this season. Incredibly, Toronto has had only 8 wins by a single run margin this season and this is a team that has won 63 games on the year! 87% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2+ runs so if you like them to win the better value, by far, has been with the run line in their games this season. Toronto starter Alek Manoah is 5-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 11 starts this season. Manoah is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 starts. Washington starter Erick Fedde is 4-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 19 starts this year. Fedde has allowed 33 earned runs in 40 innings over his last 9 games for a 7.43 ERA since late June. The Jays bullpen has a 3.46 ERA on the road this season and the Nats bullpen has a 4.59 ERA at home this season. Per our computer math model an easy win for the road team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-16-21 | Cubs v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs have lost 11 straight games. With yesterday's 4-1 loss at Miami, 9 of Chicago's last 10 losses have been by at least a margin of two runs. The Reds are off a 7-4 win at Philadelphia yesterday. Cincinnati has won 8 of 12 games. The Reds last 7 wins have featured 6 victories by at least a margin of two runs. We like the run line value here with the home team in what should be another blowout loss for floundering Chicago. The Cubs average margin of defeat in their last dozen losses is 4.7 runs! Indeed Chicago is often getting beaten badly and this one looks like more of the same. Cincinnati is 8-2 in Wade Miley's home starts and he has a 2.56 ERA at Great American Ball Park this season. Justin Steele starts for the Cubs and has shown some flashes with good stuff. However, he struggled last week in his first ever MLB start. He has been working mostly out of the pen for Chicago and this is his rookie season. In his last full season in the minors, 2019, Steele went 0-6 with a 5.59 ERA in his 11 starts. The Reds have scored an average of 6.17 runs during their current 8-4 run. The Cubs have been held to 4 or less runs in 8 of last 9 games. In fact the Cubs have averaged scoring only 2.13 runs in those 8 defeats. Per our computer math model an easy win for the home team by a multi-run margin is showing as a likely end result in this one. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -115 price range on the run line. Take Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
#905 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Pirates ended their 8-game losing streak with a win in Game 1 of yesterday's double-header. Things quickly returned to normal though for Pittsburgh as the Brewers got Game 2 by a 6-0 count and dropped the Pirates to 6-19 in their last 25 games. Pittsburgh's last 18 losses have featured 16 by a margin of 2+ runs and another ugly defeat appears likely here. The Pirates are starting Dillon Peters in this one and he has been working in the minors so far this season. It will be just his 2nd MLB start since the 2019 MLB season. Peters simply has not had success at the MLB level and has a 5.83 ERA with a .290 BAA in his career. The Brewers starting pitching situation is the much better one for this game. Eric Lauer is 3-1 over his last 6 appearances (5 starts) and has a fantastic 1.44 ERA during this stretch. Lauer also has a 0.98 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Pirates which include two this season. The Brewers are 18-8 last 26 games and 16 of the 18 victories came by 2+ run margin or more. Better team, better lineup, better starting pitcher, and also the much better bullpen and not just on the full season. Over the last 30 days the Brewers bullpen has been one of the best with a 3.09 ERA while the Pirates bullpen has been one of the worst with a 5.91 ERA. Adding to the value here is the fact that our play on team is available in a very affordable -125 price range on the run line. Take Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-14-21 | Chiefs v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 29 m | Show |
#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -2 over Kansas City, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - We love the Niners QB rotation for pre-season purposes and they have a big edge in that regard. KC obviously has Mahomes, however he’s coming off a leg injury during the playoffs last year and you can bet Andy Reid will be very careful with him. Even if Mahomes plays, which we’re not 100% sure he will, we expect maybe 1 series. After that it’s Chad Henne and after that it’s 2 rookie free agents. San Fran, on the other hand, has a QB battle on their hands. Starter Jimmy Garoppolo is being pushed by 1st round draft pick Trey Lance and word is both are playing well. Because there is a QB battle for the Niners, we expect both to play as if their jobs are on the line. Even their 3rd and 4th stringers behind center are solid with Josh Rosen (former 1st round pick) and Nate Sudfeld who has some experience coming over from Philly. This is a big game for the Niners at home. They are coming off a poor, injury riddled season just one year after making it to the Super Bowl and losing to this Chiefs team. SF had more injuries than any other team in the NFL last season which led to their 6-10 record which included only 1 win at home. You can bet they want to get this pre-season home opener vs the team that knocked them off in the Super Bowl. This one isn’t a big deal for KC. They’ve been to back to back Super Bowls and HC Andy Reid actually has mentioned he hopes his players can “reset” so to speak after 2 long grueling (physically & mentally) seasons. He wants them ready for the regular season and this game is meaningless to the Chiefs. Reid has proven over time he’s not into winning in the pre-season with a 39-45 record since 2003 and only 3 winning seasons in the pre-season during that span. We like San Francisco to get this win at home. |
|||||||
08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -105 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - We’ve hit the fade button on bad road teams like Colorado/Arizona/Texas/KC/Pittsburgh with a number of our picks this season and with solid success overall. We’ll pull the trigger again on Friday night and side with the San Diego Padres on the run line. Arizona has lost 5 of its last 6 games overall and the Diamondbacks are 13-41 in road games on the season. 54 of Arizona's 76 losses this season have come by 2+ runs. 47 of San Diego's 62 wins have come by 2+ runs. The Padres are 20-9 against lefties this year. Tonight San Diego's lineup - still potent even with Tatis on the shelf - will face a southpaw that has struggled on the road this season. Caleb Smith has a 9.00 ERA and an 0-5 record in his 5 road starts this season. With plenty of run support, San Diego left-hander Ryan Weathers should notch a dominant home win here. Weathers is off a rare bad outing and now should come right back with a strong one in this bounce back start as he faces a Diamondbacks team that is 6-21 against southpaw starters this season. The Padres have been up and down of late but they are 36-22 at home this season and the much better team in this match-up plus in a bounce back spot after a rare blown save led to a loss in their most recent games. Adding to the value here the home team is available in a very affordable -105 price range on the run line. Take San Diego Padres -1.5 on the run line. |
|||||||
08-03-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Blue Jays are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this one sets up well to be a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Toronto into the pick (-105/-110) range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu has been dominant with a 1.62 ERA over his last 4 starts. Now he finally gets a start at Rogers Centre in Toronto as, remember, the Blue Jays home games have just now resumed being played north of the border again. Toronto had won each of their first 3 games of this homestand before falling short in extra innings yesterday. With Ryu in top form and with the Jays having had won 4 straight games by a combined score of 28 to 6, the forecast is a rout in this one. The Indians Zach Plesac just has not been the same since he returned from injury and has allowed 15 hits in 11 and 2 / 3 innings over his last two starts. Plesac's strikeout numbers are down and he has allowed a homer in each of his last 3 starts while Ryu has not allowed a home run in any of his last 4 starts. Cleveland was enduring a stretch of 18 losses in 27 games prior to getting the win in extra innings yesterday. 36 of 51 Indians losses by more than a single run margin this season. An incredible 89% of the Blue Jays wins have been by 2 or more runs this season as 48 of their 54 wins have been by 2+ runs. So with a Jays win likely, you can also see the odds are in your favor that a big win is likely as well! The Blue Jays last 18 wins have all come by a multi-run margin with an incredible average winning margin of 6.2 runs. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line early Tuesday evening. |
|||||||
08-01-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -140 on Run Line over Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are a big money line favorite here but it makes sense as this is a complete mismatch. We'll grab the value with the run line here as that takes the price on Los Angeles into a manageable range and, based on the edges, this should be a dominating rout. Los Angeles delivered an 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks yesterday. The Dodgers are now 29-12 in last 41 games against Arizona including 10-2 this season. This is a match-up of left-handers and the Diamondbacks are 6-19 in games against left-handed starters and the Dodgers are 19-11 in games against left-handed starters this season. Julio Urias starts for LA and is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his 3 starts against Arizona. Urias is 12-3 this season including 9-2 in road starts. Caleb Smith starts for Arizona and got crushed by the Dodgers 3 starts ago and allowed 3 homers in an ugly outing. Smith also enters this outing off another start (against the Cubs) in which he allowed 3 more homers! Arizona is 2-9 in his starts this season and the lefty has a 5.67 ERA on the year. The Dodgers last 6 wins over the Diamondbacks have come by a combined score of 58 to 19. Our computer math model is calling for another win by a big margin here and we couldn't agree more! We’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
|||||||
07-21-21 | Indians v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 -120 on Run Line over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros got their bats going again in a big way in yesterday's 9-3 win. Houston is now 31-19 at home and 42-23 in night games this season. Cleveland, on the other hand, is barely above .500 on the season. Also, the Indians have lost 14 of 20 games. Cleveland sends a struggling Eli Morgan to the mound for this one. Morgan has a 7.86 ERA and has been hit at a .315 clip in his 6 starts in what is his rookie season. He has also allowed a homer in each of his starts including 2 homers in 3 of the 6 outings. Of course the Indians overall struggles and Morgan's struggles are a big reason Houston is a big money line favorite in this match-up. The value can be had on the run line here with -1.5 on the Astros available at about a -120 range as of early morning Wednesday. Houston holds big edges here in terms of team factors as well as starting pitching. The Astros Lance McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA this season and has been a model of consistency with 2 or fewer earned runs allowed in all but 3 of his 15 starts on the year and in 2 of those 3 outliers he only allowed 3 earned runs in each. McCullers has 26 strikeouts in 17 and 1 / 3 innings over his last 3 starts. While Cleveland has only 6 wins the last 20 games, the Astros have only 5 losses last 15 games! Two teams going opposite directions in recent weeks and Houston is going for its 7th straight win over Cleveland in 2021. 32 of the Indians 45 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. 46 of the Astros 58 wins have been by 2+ runs this season. This games has blowout potential written all over it and our math model reflects a comfortable win for the home team here. Morgan again gets hit hard while McCullers season-long domination continues. We’ll back the Houston Astros on the run line Wednesday evening. |
|||||||
07-19-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Baltimore, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Orioles are off of back to back wins but that had a lot to do with playing one of the worst teams in the American League. After facing Kansas City, now the Orioles are facing one of the majors' best teams in Tampa Bay. Prior to the back to back wins, the Orioles had lost 46 of 59 games. It has been another very rough season for Baltimore and now they face the Rays at Tampa Bay where the home team has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings. As for all the meetings this season, the Rays are a perfect 6-0 and 5 of the 6 wins were by a multi-run margin. The Orioles are starting Spenser Watkins and the rookie hurler has as many walks as strikeouts in his 2 starts this season. He has managed to escape major damage but now makes his first ever road start. Watkins faces a Rays team that has won 35 of 54 games and 43 of their 55 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Ryan Yarbrough has an edge on the hill as the Rays are 4-1 in his 5 career starts against the Orioles. He compiled a 3.07 ERA in those starts and enters this start with a 2.81 ERA over his last 3 starts so he is in good current form. The Rays, overall, have won 8 of last 10 games and have scored 6.5 runs a game in the 8 victories! Blowout could be likely here because the Orioles have a knack for losing big. 48 of Baltimore’s 62 losses, including 15 of last 17, have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Tampa Bay 1st in AL and Baltimore 2nd to last in AL) as well, we’ll back the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line early Monday evening. |
|||||||
07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team. |
|||||||
07-16-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs (-130) over Los Angeles Angels, Friday at 9:38 PM ET - The Mariners lost to the Angels Sunday in their final game before the all star break. This snapped a stretch of 3 straight wins for Seattle over LA plus a run of 5-2 last 7 meetings. One of those was a 1-run loss so having the Mariners at +1.5 runs in those 7 meetings would have netted one a tidy 6-1 record. This spot Friday looks like a great one for that run to be extended. Though an upset win is certainly possible here, having the extra 1.5 runs could prove to be a key. 3 of the Angels 5 most recent victories, prior to Sunday's big 7-1 win, had been by a 1-run margin. Chis Flexen continues to be a pleasant surprise on the mound for the Mariners. Despite not being a strikeout pitcher, Flexen continues to successfully pitch to contact and induce outs by avoiding hard contact. Seattle is 12-4 in Flexen's starts this season and he has an 8-3 record! In his past 5 starts he has a 1.38 ERA and allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of the 5 starts. Flexen has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. Andrew Heaney starts for the Angels in this one. The southpaw allowed 3 homers at Seattle earlier this season. Heaney enters this start having surrendered 5 long balls in his last 3 outings and has a 9.42 ERA during this stretch. This is a strikeout mismatch as Heaney has been piling up strikeouts lately while Flexen is not. However, it is crystal clear who has been getting the better results and that continues here. Also, Trout still out for the Angels and even if Rendon and Upton come back for this game it would be hard to say either is 100% healthy at this point as each were out for for a while prior to the all star break. Bet the Seattle Mariners +1.5 runs on the run line. |
|||||||
07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - The Lightning are on a 13-7 run in the playoffs but 4 of the 13 wins were by just a single goal. That means laying 1.5 goals with Tampa Bay in each of those games would have netted only a 9-11 record. The Canadiens are on a 12-5 run and 1 of the 5 losses was in overtime. That means at +1.5 goals in the last 17 games, Montreal would have a 13-4 record. That is why we're laying the price to have the benefit of having the +1.5 goals on the puck line. While Montreal certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice with a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup tonight. However, if the Canadiens do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -140 price in doing so) with road underdog Montreal is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one! Note that goalie Carey Price was fantastic in the crease in Game 4 to help the Canadiens fight off elimination and also give them momentum heading into this must win game. |
|||||||
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2.5 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks. |