Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-25-24 | Mavs v. Pacers UNDER 254 | Top | 111-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 254 Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers, 5:10 PM ET - This is a ridiculously high total for an NBA game, and we can’t resist the value with an Under bet here. Let’s first talk about raw numbers. Indiana scores 123.8PPG and allows 122.2PPG. Dallas is putting up 118.7PPG and giving up 117.2PPG. If we get an average game from both, they are not reaching that total, but we know its not as simple as that. The Mavs have won 7 straight games, and their offense has played above their season metrics in terms of offensive efficiency but it’s their defense that has been the difference. Dallas has the 2nd best Net Defensive Rating in the NBA over a 7-game stretch at 104.5. In their last five games they are allowing just 1.045-points per possession which is the 4th lowest number in the league over that course of games. Indiana has actually played better defense in their most recent 5-games allowing 1.165PPP while holding three opponents to 115 or less. Dallas shoots 48.2% overall at home but that number dips to 47.4% on the road and their 3PT% falls to 35.9 on the road compared to 38.6% at home. Indiana is playing at a slowing pace in their last five games compared to their season tempo average and their offensive efficiency has also dropped in recent games. The value lies in the Under here. |
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02-25-24 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -9.5 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -9.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for a struggling OSU team on the road after playing @ Minnesota on Thursday night. They’re playing an MSU team that is off a poor home loss on Tuesday vs Iowa and they’ve had 2 extra days to get ready for this one. The Buckeyes had their one big upset at home vs Purdue the game after their head coach Holtmann was fired. That was a week ago and you could see in that game that OSU brought their “A” game along with an emotional effort which was to be expected. Then on Thursday they went right back to their old ways losing by 9 @ Minnesota in a game that wasn’t that close (Gophers led by 17 with 5:00 remaining in the game). They haven’t won a road game yet this season, 0-8 SU, and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here after traveling with short rest. MSU looked sluggish here on Tuesday vs Iowa to say the least. The Hawks shot over 50% and averaged 1.20 PPP which is WAY above Sparty’s season average as they allow 0.95 PPP. MSU should fare well offensively here vs an OSU defense thar ranks 13th (out of 14 Big 10 teams) in defensive efficiency and dead last defending the arc. Meanwhile Sparty, after a very slow start to the season from 3 point range, has moved all the way up to 30th nationally hitting 37% of their triples. We’re getting value in this bounce back spot as Michigan State was favored by 9.5 vs Iowa on Tuesday and now we get the same opening line vs an Ohio State team that is in a bad situation and ranks well below Iowa in KenPom’s power ratings. Prior to that loss, MSU had won 9 straight home games and they can’t afford a loss here with Purdue and NW (2 losable games) on deck. The Spartans are safely in the NCAA field now right around an 8 seed but a loss here could move them closer to the bubble. |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, 1:10 PM ET - A few big syndicate bettors hit this Over and have driven the number up from 225.5 where it opened to 235 where it currently sits. We are betting contrarian and taking the value with the added points and UNDER the total. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, they have scored 235 or less five times. In the last four meetings in Philadelphia they have totaled 234 or less points in every game. The Bucks may have turned the corner with a big win in Minnesota the other night and the main reason this team is playing better in their defense. The Bucks D was one of the worst defensive efficiency units in the NBA until the recent hire of Doc Rivers. In their last five games they allowed the 6th fewest points per possession at 1.059PPP in the NBA. In their last five games they have the 3rd best FG% defense and allowed the 3rd fewest made shots. They’ve also given up only 104.4PPG in their last five games which is 5th best in the league. Each team has seen a dramatic decrease in their offensive Net Ratings also. Looking at each teams last 7 games we find they rank 23rd and 24th respectively in the league. In that same 7-game stretch the Bucks EF% is 17th, the Sixers are 26th. Philadelphia is coming off a game against a Cavs team that produced only 201 total points and the Cavs/Bucks has several similarities. The Sixers offense has struggled without Embiid in the lineup producing 104 or less points in 5 of their last seven games. |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -7.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 9 PM ET - We don’t mind the fact that the Wolves are playing the second night of a back-to-back here as they had plenty of rest with the All-Star Break. Minnesota is coming off a home loss to the Bucks last night and should be motivated for a bounce back win here. The T’Wolves have the best spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss with a 11-5 ATS record, and they’ve won those games by an average of +13.3PPG. Brooklyn is in a freefall in the midst of a 1-6 SU run their last seven games. On the season the Nets are 9-15 ATS on the road and they’ve lost 9 of their last ten away from home. Seven of those ten losses were by double-digits with an average loss margin of 17PPG. The big advantage the Wolves have here is with their defense. Minnesota has the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA, while the Nets rank 21st. Minnesota has an average MOV at home this season of +9.4PPG which is 4th best in the league. We like the Timberwolves by 10+ today. |
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02-24-24 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -110 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
(Line moved AFTER we prepared the write-up but we still like OSU even as a small favorite or a pick'em in this spot) #688 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State (small fave or pick'em) over Oklahoma, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This Oklahoma State team has a losing record on the season, but they absolutely haven’t quit on the season and they have been trending in the right direction for about a month. After starting the Big 12 season with an 0-6 SU record, the Cowboys have now won 4 of their last 7 games including a win @ Cincinnati on Wednesday. That was a few days after they beat a very good BYU team here at home by double digits. Their most recent loss came on February 10th on the road vs this Oklahoma team. The Sooners were favored by 11 in that game and never came close to covering the spread as their largest lead of the game was just 7 points. OSU actually led by 4 with just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game and it was a 1 point game with OU leading with just 11 seconds left in the game (Final was 66-62 in favor of Oklahoma). The Cowboys shot just 31% in that game (OU was at 45%) and only 17% from deep yet still almost won the game on the road. After starting the season 13-1, the Sooners have declined winning just 5 of their last 12 games and their road record in Big 12 play is 2-4 SU. They’ve only played 6 true road games the entire season and they are averaging just 67 PPG in those road contests while shooting 41%. Okie State has won 3 straight home games and despite their 12-14 overall record, they are 10-5 at home. Three of those five losses have come vs teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 17 (Kansas, Baylor, and Creighton). OSU has won 6 of their last 7 meetings at home vs arch rival Oklahoma and we give them a great shot at the upset on Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -2 over Duke, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Just a massively huge game for Wake here. They currently sit on the bubble for the NCAA tourney and really need a signature win down the stretch. This would absolutely qualify. WF will most likely be favored in each of their last 4 games so this is their final regular season shot to make a statement. These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and Duke won that game at home by 8. The Devils largest lead of the game was just 9 and it was mainly tight throughout. Duke led by 5 with 30 seconds left in the game and the FT disparity was heavily in favor of the Devils (+9 FT’s made) as it usually is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke outshot Wake 47% to 39% yet the game was still very tight most of the way. From beyond the arc the Deacs were just 6 of 26 in that game (23%) which is way below their season average of 37% which is 25th best in the nation. We look for the Demon Deacons to shoot much better at home on Saturday where they have made 50% of their shot & 42% of their 3 pointers this season while averaging 85 PPG. They are also undefeated at home this year (14-0 SU & 10-3-1 ATS) including 8 wins over top 100 teams. The Devils do have a winning record on the road this year but they’ve been a bit fortunate in their road games over the last month or so. Example, they just beat Miami on the road on Wednesday but the Canes played without Pack & Cleveland, both starters who average 14 PPG. They also played @ FSU last Saturday and won but the Noles are a team in turmoil right now losing 6 of their last 9 games including 4 home games. Duke has played only 2 top 50 teams on the road all season and split those games beating Va Tech (who is 50th) and losing @ UNC. Wake is currently ranked 20th in the KenPom power ratings which is near where we have them as well. Last year the Blue Devils traveled to WF as a favorite and lost by double digits to a Demon Deacon team that was rated 50+ spots lower this this team. It’s Duke’s 3rd straight road game (Saturday, Wed, Saturday) and Wake is off a blowout home win on Tuesday vs a Pitt team that was rolling (won 5 straight entering that game). That means the Deacs get an extra day to prepare for this one as well while Duke continues their travel schedule. A non ranked team favored at home over a top 10 team? We agree and expect Wake to win and cover this one. |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves OVER 225 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225 Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 pm ET - These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee in a game the oddsmakers set a total of 222 and the game finished with 234-points. This game will have a similar result. In that previous meeting the Bucks played without All-Star MVP Dame Lillard who seems to have found his 3-point stroke. Lillard won the 3-point shootout and hit eleven 3's in the AS game, two from half court. Another All-Star in that game put up a huge number as Karl Anthony Towns scored 50 for the West. We like both players to carry that momentum into this game. The Bucks own the 5th best team shooting percentage in the NBA, the Wolves are 7th. Minnesota has the 3rd best 3PT% in the league, the Bucks are 9th best. The Bucks have the 3rds best EFG%, the Wolves are 7th. The oddsmakers have set this number too low and we expect another higher scoring game between these two teams. Three of the last four meetings have resulted in 234 or more points. |
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02-22-24 | Hornets v. Jazz -9.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9.5 vs. Charlotte Hornets, 9:10 PM ET - We are betting the number here with the Jazz minus the points. These two teams recently met on January 27th in Charlotte and the Jazz were 10-point favorites in the Hornets building. They are now laying the same number at home. In the most recent meeting, the Jazz won 134-122 and that Hornets roster at the time featured PJ Washington who scored 43-points. Washington has since been traded to the Dallas Mavericks. Charlotte is one of the worst shooting teams in the league at 46.1% as a team which ranks 26th in the NBA. They rank 27th in offensive efficiency averaging 1.101-points per possession. In comparison the Jazz rank 15th in OEFF at 1.170PPP. Utah also holds a significant advantage on the boards with a top 8 offensive and defensive rebounding team versus a Hornets team that is 24th and 28th. Utah lost 4 straight games heading into the All-Star break, but the losses came to the Warriors twice, the Lakers and Suns. Charlotte has won 3 straight but had lost 10 in a row prior. It looks too easy to take the double-digit dog with the Hornets….so don’t. |
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02-22-24 | Sam Houston State v. New Mexico State +1.5 | Top | 79-58 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +1 over Sam Houston State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - NMSU has one of the biggest, if not the biggest, home/road dichotomy in college basketball. They are 0-12 SU on the road this season but a near perfect 11-1 SU at home. Their only home loss was vs one of the top teams in the MWC, New Mexico, and that was by 1 point. The Aggies are finally back home after losing 3 straight games, all on the road. We like the value here getting NMSU as a home dog (opening line +1) as we have them favored in this game in our power ratings. These 2 met in late January and SHSU was favored by 5 at home which means they should be a dog in this game of 2 of 3 points for the normal home/road swing. Sam Houston is off back to back wins but both at home. They haven’t been very successful on the road this year with a 4-9 SU record. They are a poor shooting team (322nd in FG%) but on the road it’s even worse where they hit just 39% of their shots and score 66 PPG. That’ll be tough to overcome in this road game vs a New Mexico State team that allows their opponents to make only 36% of their shots here at home while holding them to 61 PPG. When these 2 met 3+ weeks ago, Sam Houston won by 12 and the difference in that game was from beyond the arc. NMSU made only 4 three point shots (hit only 20% for the game) while Bearkats hit 10 outscoring the Aggies by 18 from deep. We expect that to turn around here as NMSU is a poor shooting team on the road, but at home they hit 41% of their triples on the season. We’ll take the points with the home team tonight. |
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02-22-24 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 236.5 | Top | 107-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 236.5 LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This number has been set too high according to our math model which is projecting 231.5-points being scored. The league average for points scored in an NBA game this season is 229.6PPG and this number is considerably higher than that. When OKC has been at home this season those contests have averaged 236.6 total points per game. When the Clippers have been on the road those games have averaged 233.1PPG. Both numbers get us a cash on our bet here. These two teams rank 3rd in offensive efficiency at 1.204PPP but they also rank 6th and 12th in defensive efficiency. The last three meetings between these two teams have been higher scoring, but with the added rest from the All-Star Break we expect both defenses to rise to the occasion. |
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02-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 | Top | 90-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON Delaware +1.5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - C of C is in 1st place in the CAA with Delaware 2 games back and chasing. We like the Blue Hens to pick up a home win on Thursday night. They are playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 6 games and they only have 1 home loss this season in conference play. Delaware is the #1 team in the conference in eFG% allowed and on offense they are #2 in eFG%. They defend the arc better than anyone in the CAA allowing just 28% in league games and they rank in the top 40 nationally overall on the season in that category. That is key here and Charleston throws up a lot of 3 point shots at 3rd most nationally attempting 31.5 per game. Despite being a team that scores almost 40% of their points from 3 (which is 19th most nationally) the Cougars aren’t a great 3 point shooting team ranking 244th in 3 point FG%. We expect tonight they’ll struggle against a very good 3 point defensive team. C of C has had some success on the road in league play winning 4 straight but they were all vs teams ranked 296th or lower in KenPom (Delaware is 147th). There are 7 CAA teams ranked in the top 200 and the Cougs have only played 2 of those teams on the road so far this season (1-1 record). They also have a huge revenge game on deck vs Towson in 2 days. These 2 teams have played a similar SOS this season yet the Blue Hens shoot the ball better (47% to 43%) and they defend better allowing opponents just 42% from the field (C of C allows 44%). We like Delaware to get the home win tonight. |
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02-21-24 | Blue Jackets v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
#77/78 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - The Blue Jackets are in the 2nd night of a B2B which means, after losing 5-1 to the Kings with Merzlikins in goal for Columbus, Tarasov is likely to get the start tonight. It is either Merzlikins in goal in a B2B (not easy to do) or Tarasov (likely) and both goalies have struggled of late. Tarasov is the likely starter and he is allowing nearly 4 goals per game with a 3.91 GAA this season. Columbus lost 5-1 to LA last night which was the 10th time in last 14 games that the Jackets have allowed at least 4 goals! Columbus has scored an average of 3 goals per game on the season and will bounce back after scoring just 1 goal last night. They face a Ducks team that will likely have John Gibson in goal for this one. He has allowed 8 goals in his last two appearances even though those spanned just 5 periods of hockey. In other words his GAA is above 4 goals per game his last two games. Both these teams struggle on the penalty kill so that should help get the power plays going in this one. On the season the Blue Jackets have allowed the most goals in the league! As for Anaheim, in the Western Conference the Ducks rank 14th out of 16 teams in terms of goals allowed! Anaheim has won 2 of 3 and scored at least 4 goals in each win. They also are happy to be back home after a long road trip. They will take advantage of hosting a team that is very susceptible defensively and in goal. At the same time the Blue Jackets have done a great job in the scoring department this season when coming off a loss by a margin of at least 3 goals! They have averaged scoring 4.3 goals the 13 times that has happened this season! In other words, perfect spot for Columbus to respond in the offensive zone. 5-4 would not surprise us at all here and getting each team to 3-3 here (resulting in a 4-3 final) should not be a problem either! Look for at least 7 in this one! Over is our play here. |
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02-21-24 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -5.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -5.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - We’re catching this very solid New Mexico team off a road loss @ San Diego State while CSU is off a home win over 1st place Utah State. Perfect spot to grab the Lobos here. Colorado State has struggled big time on the road with a 1-5 SU mark in conference play. Their only MWC road win was @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the league, and when playing the top end of the conference away from home they’ve lost by 16 @ SDSU, by 13 @ Nevada, by 8 @ Boise, and by 5 @ Utah St. The Rams have very good overall offensive numbers but they drop off quite drastically away from home. They average 7.5 PPG less on the road and shoot 5% lower from the field. The Lobos won their first 11 home games this season but lost their most recent 2 vs Boise St and UNLV. They have rolled over some of the top tier teams in the MWC here at home beating 1st place San Diego State by 18 and 1st place (tied with SDSU) Utah State by 13. The Lobos have also had an extra day to rest and get ready for this one after playing last Friday with Colorado State playing on Saturday. When these 2 met @ CSU the Rams won by 8 with a +14 edge in made FTs. New Mexico is the only team in the MWC that ranks in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games) and they lead the conference in TO rate both offensively and defensively as well. They are the better rebounding team in this match up as well which should lead to some extra possessions as well along with their expected edge in TO margin. We’ll lay it with New Mexico at home. |
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02-21-24 | Belmont v. Drake -9 | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drake -9 over Belmont, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Drake, who sits in 1st place in the MVC tied with Indiana State, has been waiting for this rematch. That’s because the Bulldogs, who are 13-3 in conference play, lost @ Belmont by 22 points, by far their worst loss of the MVC season. It was the most points Drake has allowed in conference play this season AND the least points they’ve scored in conference play this season. The Bruins went crazy in that game at home making 57% of their shots overall and 55% of their 3 pointers. It still stands as Belmont’s ONLY win this season over a top 100 opponent. Drake is the highest rated team in the MVC per KenPom (48th nationally) and they are the #1 offensive and defensive efficiency team in the conference (league games). They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season with 11 of those wins coming by double digits. Going back further they’ve won 73 of their last 80 home games! Belmont is playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and when they faced the other 2 top 100 teams in the MVC on the road (Indiana State & Bradley) they lost by 30 & 23 points respectively. The Bruins are the fastest paced team in the Missouri Valley which will give the superior team Drake a better chance to pull away as we expect lots of possessions in this one. When the Bulldogs faced Belmont here last year they won by 14 but led by 22 with just 4:00 remaining in the game. We look for a similar outcome on Wednesday night with Drake winning easily. |
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02-20-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#638 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - These 2 are currently tied at the top of the MWC so the winner here moves into sole possession of 1st place. We like the home team Utah State. We’ve been on San Diego State a number of times at home this season where they’ve won 51 of their last 53 games, however the Aztecs are simply a different team away from the Viejas Arena. While they are undefeated at home, on the road SDSU is just 4-6 SU on the season and while all of their key offensive numbers drop on the road, their defensive numbers fall off dramatically. The Aztecs all 12 more PPG away from home and their defensive efficiency goes from 0.87 PPP at home to 1.04 PPP on the road. Their only road wins in conference play were vs San Jose State & Air Force, the 2 worst teams in the Mountain West. SDSU is also off 2 huge home revenge wins over Colorado St and New Mexico while we’re catching Utah State off a 20 point road loss @ CSU (we were on CSU). The Aggies now get to play at home after that embarrassing loss where they are 11-1 SU this year and 25-2 SU since the start of last season. It’s a revenger for USU who lost 81-67 @ San Diego State in a game where the Aggies shot poorly (26% from 3) and attempted 15 fewer FT’s than the host Aztecs. USU is the better shooting team by a fairly wide margin, especially at home where they hit 53% of their shots and average 85 PPG. If the Aggies need to put the game away late with FT’s they are the #1 FT shooting team in the MWC in league games hitting almost 77%. Lay this small number with Utah State at home. |
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02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
#644 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Baylor, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot for the very good home team BYU coming off their worst loss of the season. The Cougs lost by 10 @ Okie State on Saturday, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12. The normally sharp shooting BYU team (36% from 3 on the season) made only 8 of 35 triples (22%) in that loss. If they don’t hit 3’s they are in trouble as 41% of their points come from deep (2nd most in the nation). They should have success back at home facing a Baylor defense that isn’t great defending the arc (144th nationally) and in Big 12 play alone they rank 10th in the league. This is also a tough travel spot for Baylor after playing in West Virginia on Saturday (getting a win) and now on the west coast just a few days later. The Bears aren’t the deepest team in the world (266th in bench minutes) and will be playing in altitude for the first time this season – they’ve never played at BYU. The Bears may also be without one of the key players once again, Langston Love (12 PPG), which will take one of their top 3 point shooters off the floor and limit their depth even further. When these 2 met @ Baylor it was the first Big 12 game ever at the new Foster Pavilion (only 2nd game played there this season at the time) and the Bears were extra motivated. BYU shot a higher percentage for the game and outrebounded Baylor by 7, however they couldn’t overcome the Bearss 3 point shooting (43% for the game from deep) and they were outscored by 11 at the FT line in that 9 point loss. The Bears are in a bad travel spot as we mentioned, and situationally they have a huge game on deck at home vs #1 Houston (per KenPom). BYU is a very tough place to play (40-8 SU their last 48 here) and we like them to get the win and cover on Tuesday night. |
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02-20-24 | TCU v. Texas Tech -5.5 | Top | 81-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -5.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tech in need of a home win here after losing 4 of their last 6 games. However, all of those losses were close (8 points or less) and 3 of the 4 setbacks were on the road. Two of those losses came @ Iowa State (by 8) and @ Baylor (by 3), both top 12 teams per KenPom. The Red Raiders are coming off a road loss @ ISU over the weekend but their most recent home game prior to that was a 29 point win over Kansas. They are 13-1 at home this season with an average scoring margin of 77-61. One of their losses over this 6 game stretch was @ TCU 85-78. Tech, the #1 shooting team in the Big 12 (eFG%), had some very solid shooting numbers in that loss (52% from the field) but couldn’t overcome a HUGE deficit at the FT line. TCU attempted 32 freebies in that game (made 24) while Texas Tech only had 14 attempts the entire game (made 10). In a close game, that was the difference. It was an anomaly for Tech’s defense that rarely fouls allowing just 15% of their opponents points from the FT line which is top 30 in the nation. We don’t expect that discrepancy at home tonight. If the FT attempt numbers do favor Tech tonight, which they should, they are making 77% of their freebies in Big 12 play (1st in the conference) while TCU is making only 68% (last in the conference). TCU is off a 75-72 road win on Saturday @ KSU in a game the Wildcats made only 1 of 15 three point attempts yet still nearly won at home. Now the Horned Frogs are on the road again a few days later and this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4. Tough spot and we like Texas Tech to get a big win at home. |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia Tech -3.5 over Virginia, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tech has beaten UVA 3 straight years here at home and we like them to add another W to the ledger tonight. The Cavs have won 9 of 10 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the ACC thus far (haven’t played Duke or UNC) and of those 10 games only 3 were played vs teams ranked in the top 5 in the conference. In those 3 games vs top 5 conference opponents, Virginia beat Clemson at home by 1, beat WF at home by 2, and lost at Pitt by 11. Tech has lost 4 of 5 but 3 of those losses came on the road and they also played both UNC & Duke (top 2 teams in the ACC) during that stretch. UVA struggles in general offensively but on the road is where they really have problems putting the ball in the basket shooting just 42% while averaging only 63 PPG. Their defense also allows 11 more PPG on the road where they are just 4-4 on the season. VT is 11-2 at home this year and their offense is tops in the ACC in eFG% and FT%. Their home losses came vs Duke & Miami and in their 4 point loss vs the Canes the Hokies played without their 2nd leading scorer and top 3 point shooter, Hunter Cattoor. In the first meeting between these 2 in state rivals, UVA won by 8 at home and they were +7 from the FT line making 11 compared to VT who only went to the line 4 times the entire game (4 for 4). That’s unlike Virginia to win at the FT line as only 14% of their points this season come from the stripe (355th) and when they get there they are a poor shooting team making only 64% on the season. If Tech can get to the stripe tonight, which we think they will at home, they should have a huge edge as they make 80% of their attempts on the season. We don’t think UVA will be able to keep up offensively on the road and we’ll grab the Hokies win and cover tonight. |
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02-18-24 | Utah v. UCLA -2 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCLA -2 over Utah, Sunday at 7 PM ET - This young Bruins team was struggling to say the least in mid January when they lost 8 of 9. Head coach Mick Cronin turned this team around and they have now won 8 of their last 9 including 4 road games which is impressive. The Bruins only loss during their 8 game run was @ Arizona by 7 points and even in that game they played very well leading by as many as 19 points before the Wildcats furious comeback. They beat Colorado here on Thursday despite the Buffs hitting 53% of their shots which made the win even more impressive. Despite that shooting effort by the Buffs, UCLA’s defense has been lights out rising to #1 efficiency wise in the Pac 12 and in the 7 wins during their recent 9 game run only 1 team topped 66 points. The Utes are now the team in a free fall in Pac 12 play. They have now lost 5 of their last 6 and Utah is 0-6 SU on the road in conference play. Utah is on the road for the 2nd of back to back games after losing @ USC on Thursday who entered that game with a 3-10 Pac 12 record. The Utes lost key senior Rollie Worster (10 PPG and 5.5 APG) in mid January and they have since gone 3-6 SU. Utah doesn’t create turnovers defensively (last in the Pac 12), they aren’t a great rebounding team, and they only shoot 58% from the FT line in conference play. Not a great recipe for winning especially on the road. UCLA will have some extra motivation in this one after losing at Utah 90-44, their low point of the season, in mid January. That embarrassing loss propelled the Bruins to their current 8-1 run which started right after that game in Salt Lake City. Small number here and we’ll grab UCLA to win at home. |
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02-18-24 | Chattanooga v. Furman OVER 154.5 | Top | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Chattanooga vs Furman, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These are the 2nd and 3rd scoring teams in the SoCon both averaging right about 80 PPG on the season. Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency so the strength is with the offense on both sides. Both have preferred a faster pace ranking 3rd in 4th in SoCon in tempo so we should have plenty of possessions. Neither team creates turnovers at a high rate so we should see many wasted trips on offense. Chattanooga’s offense is rolling scoring at least 79 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Furman was missing some key players early in the conference schedule including leading scorer Foster but he’s now been back for 9 games and the offense has been very good at home averaging 82 PPG on 48% shooting. When they met back in January the total was set at 155.5 and they didn’t come close with Chattanooga winning 73-58. Furman played that game without Foster and they combined to shoot only 37% from the field including a terrible 11 of 55 (20%) from beyond the arc. Neither team averaged 1.00 PPP in that game which is WAY below their averages of 1.16 PPP (UTC) and 1.08 PPP (Furman) in conference play. Both offenses play much better here and this one goes Over the Total. |
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02-17-24 | Michigan State v. Michigan +6.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan +6.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Michigan beat Wisconsin at home on Feb 7th and then went on the road and was beaten badly in back to back games @ Nebraska and @ Illinois. The Wolverines are still playing without their top player Dug McDaniel on the road (suspended for road games) but he can play in Michigan’s home games. They are a different team with McDaniel on the court as he averages 17 PPG, 5 assists per game and averages 35 minutes per game. This is Michigan’s Super Bowl to say the least. They have had a dismal season but this is the game they will give everything they have to try and top their in state rival. Sparty is far from a solid road team with a 2-5 SU record this year. Their road wins came @ Maryland by 2 points and @ PSU on Wednesday night so they are playing their 2nd straight road game. MSU has been shooting lights out during their current 5 games stretch (4-1 SU) hitting 50% overall and 41% from deep and they are due for some regression. On the road this year they are hitting just 44% of their shots and averaging only 68 PPG so the regression could come here. These 2 met on January 30th @ MSU and Michigan led at halftime despite not having McDaniel in the line up. The Spartans pulled away in the 2nd half but hit a ridiculous 56% from the filed and 43% from deep at home. MSU was just a 3 point favorite @ PSU on Wednesday and now they are laying nearly 7 vs their arch rival who only sits 12 spots lower than PSU in KenPom’s ratings. In their first meeting with Michigan, the Spartans were -11.5 and now laying 6.5 on the road with McDaniel back in the line up for the Wolverines. We like Michigan to give MSU all they can handle here and have a shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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02-17-24 | Fresno State v. Boise State -14 | Top | 66-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#762 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -14 over Fresno State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This one has blowout written all over it. Boise is off back to back road losses @ Colorado State and @ Utah State, 2 of the top teams in the MWC. Now they’ve had a full week off to get ready for a bounce back effort on Saturday. They are facing a Fresno team that just lost at home vs UNLV on Wednesday evening and this will be the Bulldogs 3rd road game in their last 4. On top of that, this Fresno team is decimated by injuries right now. They only have 5 players available who are in their regular rotation. They will be without 3 of their top 6 scorers in this game including their top 2 big men. Boise already was going to have a huge edge on the boards and now with 13+ boards on the bench for FSU it should be a gigantic edge. The Broncos already rank #1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding in conference play and they are facing a Fresno team that is 11th (last) in offensive board and 9th in defensive boards and that was WITH their 2 big men in the line up for nearly every game. Boise is 10-2 at home with their only losses coming in OT vs Utah State who is in 1st place and by 4 points vs UNLV in a game the Broncos only made 40% of their shots and just 29% of their 3’s. Fresno is only 4-8 in conference play and their 4 wins have come vs Air Force (twice) and San Jose State (twice) who have a combined conference record of 3-21. These two met earlier this season and Boise won on the road 72-68 despite the Bulldogs shooting 53% on their home floor. The players missing in this game for FSU combined for 32 points in that loss. The Fresno offense ranks 10th in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency and the average only 64 PPG on the road this season. With the anticipation of no inside game or offensive rebounding in this game they’ll have to light it up from beyond the arc to have a chance to stay close. That’ll be a problem vs a Boise State defense that ranks 1st in the MWC defending the 3 point line allowing only 29%. The Bronco offense averages over 80 PPG at home and they are rested and in a must win spot. The Bulldogs have played only 2 road games vs the top 5 teams in the conference this year (Boise falls into that category) and they lost those 2 games by 21 & 27 points and they were full strength for those games. This should be a blowout. |
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02-17-24 | Utah State v. Colorado State -6 | Top | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -6 over Utah State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - Utah State sits at 9-3 in MWC play and in 1st place. They’ve played the easiest strength of schedule so far in league play having faced only 4 games (out of 12) vs the top 5 teams in the conference. USU is 1-3 SU in those games with their only win coming at home by 5 points vs this CSU team. In that game, the Rams led on the road at halftime and for a majority of the 2nd half as well in their 77-72 loss where the Utah State fans stormed the court after the win. The difference in that game was at the FT line where USU made 20 freebies and CSU made only 4. Despite that huge disparity the game still was close throughout. Now we’re getting Colorado State back at home where they are undefeated in conference play including knocking off the 2 highest rated teams in the league (San Diego State & New Mexico) both by 8 points. They enter this game off a loss @ San Diego State on Tuesday (we were on the Aztecs in that game) blowing a 14 point halftime lead and scoring only 11 points the entire 2nd half. That should give them another shot of motivation for this one. At home this CSU team is great offensively. They already rank 14th nationally in eFG% but at home this team hits 53% of their shots on 1.17 PPP and averages 83 PPG. The Aggies are off an 8 point road win at Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the conference, and their overall road record is solid at 6-3. However, they haven’t beaten a single team on the road ranked above 90 (CSU is currently ranked 36th) and they lost to every top 50 team they’ve played on the road this season. Colorado State has played the tougher overall schedule this season and despite that their efficiency margin numbers are still better than Utah State. We like the Rams to get a big home win on Saturday. |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
#896 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over New Mexico, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rinse and repeat. We’ve been on SDSU at home in revenge spots this season vs Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada and picked up 3 double digit wins. We’re on them again on Friday night at home vs New Mexico who gave the Aztecs their worst loss of the season 88-70 back in mid January. It was the only double digit loss for San Diego State this season. Now they get the Lobos at home where they are basically unbeatable. The Aztecs are 12-0 SU at home this season with 11 of those 12 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 50-2 SU their last 52 home games! These 2 are tied for 2nd place in the MWC at 8-4 but the Lobos have shown some signs of struggling after their red hot run in January. They had won 5 in a row in January but are just 2-2 their last 4 games, both home losses to Boise and UNLV which throws up a few red flags. Their 2 wins during that 4 game stretch came vs Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the league, and a 1 point win @ Nevada on Tuesday winning on a last second 3 pointer. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after allowing the most points they have all season (in regulation) when they played @ NM. The Aztecs continue to lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU still has not allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. They held a potent CSU offense to 11, yes 11, second half points earlier this week which was a win for us on SDSU. We’ll keep going to this well with SDSU at home in revenge mode. Lay it. |
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02-16-24 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-1 | Win | 124 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals +120) over Arizona Coyotes, Friday at 9:05 PM ET - Carolina is in a great spot here which is why the odds on the Hurricanes have risen to as high as a -225 favorite on the money line. Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the +120 range on this one. Regardless of the starting goalies here, we are strong on the Canes in this spot. However, we will mention that the expected starters are Karel Vejmelka for the Coyotes and Pyotr Kochetkov for the Hurricanes. Kochetkov allowed 3 goals in the loss to Dallas but had allowed 2 or less goals in each of his 7 road starts since mid-December - and an average of just 1.4 goals ruing this stretch! Arizona is without #1 goalie Connor Ingram as he was hurt in the 3-1 home loss to Minnesota Wednesday. Vejmelka has lost 14 of 20 decisions this season and has a 3.36 GAA on the season. He has allowed 26 goals in his last 6 starts including allowing at least 4 goals in 5 of those 6 starts! Vejmelka is struggling badly and faces a tall order here. The Hurricanes come to Arizona hungry for a win as they are off a 4-2 loss at Dallas. The Canes team is well-coached and is an especially tough team when off a loss. The Hurricanes had won 13 of 17 games prior to that loss. Unlike red hot Carolina, Arizona has been trending in the other direction. The Coyotes have lost 13 of 17 games and that includes 7 in a row! 16 of last 21 Arizona losses have been by a margin of 2 or more goals. The Coyotes are struggling to score goals so another loss by a multi-goal margin appears likely here. Arizona's has averaged just 1.9 goals scored in last 18 losses. Carolina has averaged 4.2 goals scored in last 14 wins. We look for at least a 4-2 final in this one and the rested Hurricanes off a loss coupled with the Coyotes goalie situation makes a win by a 3-goal margin quite possible here. Road team in a blowout has high probability here per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina is the value play here. |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 223.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies, 8:30 PM ET - New head coach Doc Rivers is working hard to implement his system in Milwaukee and it certainly has been a process. What’s evident is the Bucks pace of play and how they’ve slowed down offensively. The Bucks average 101.3 possessions per game on the season which is 5th fastest. In their last five games they are averaging 97.5 possessions per game which ranks 19th slowest. The Bucks offensive efficiency has fallen dramatically in their last five games but the defense has improved immensely as they allow only 1.124-points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA over the last 5 games. Looking at that same 5 game stretch the Grizzlies are last in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.055PPP. On the season the Grizz average the lowest points scored at 106.7PPG. Heading into the All-Star break we are betting both teams are looking forward to the time off so we can’t imagine either being enthused in a high scoring game. Lastly, the Grizz are coming off a game last night and they are 1-8 to the Under when playing without rest this season. |
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02-15-24 | Hofstra v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drexel -3.5 over Hofstra, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice line value in this game with Drexel laying a short number at home. That’s because the Dragons have lost 4 of their last 5 games while Hofstra has won 7 of their last 8. Hofstra has played only ONE team ranked in the top 200 over their last 8 games while Drexel has faced 4 opponents ranked inside the top 200 in their last 5 games. Their 4 losses during that stretch have all been on the road and they are entering this game off 3 straight losses (all on the road) so we expect a motivated effort here from the host. They are catching Hofstra in a rough scheduling spot as well playing their 3rd road game in a week. The Pride step into this game off back to back road wins last Thursday @ Hamptons and on Saturday @ North Carolina A&T. Nothing overly impressive about those 2 wins topping 2 of the worst teams in college basketball who rank 351st and 343rd respectively. Now Hofstra takes a huge step up in competition vs a home team that is very motivated to get a win. The 4 highest rated teams (per KenPom) in the CAA this year are UNC Wilmington, Charleston, Drexel, and Delaware. The Dragons have played host to 2 of those teams (UNCW & Delaware) and rolled to easy wins by 15 and 19 points. They were favored by 6 at home vs Delaware and now they are laying a full possession lower than that vs a Hofstra team that is rated lower. Both of these teams are 8-4 in CAA action but Drexel has played the #5 strength of schedule in conference play while Hofstra has played the easiest slate. Despite playing the much tougher slate in CAA play Drexel has better efficiency numbers with a +12.00 efficiency margin (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) while Hofstra is +7.00 in that key category. Drexel is the better team here, in the much better situation, laying a small number at home. We’ll take it. |
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -3.5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Rutgers is peaking right now to say the least having won 3 in a row, 2 of those wins on the road, and in their most recent game on Saturday they rolled Wisconsin, one of the top teams in the Big 10, by 22 points. Much of that has been their outstanding defense holding 3 straight opponents to less than 60 points and all scored fewer than 0.87 PPP, but the offense received a boost as well. That’s because Temple transfer, Jeremiah Williams, finally was on the court the last 3 games after missing the first 20 games of the season. Williams has scored 42 points, grabbed 16 board, and had 9 assists in those 3 wins giving them a huge offensive boost. If the offense continues to improve, watch out. They should play well in this one vs a NW defense that has struggled all year ranking dead last in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed. The Rutgers defense ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and have allowed opponents to shoot only 36% at home while giving up only 60 PPG. They are catching Northwestern in a bad spot. The Cats are off back to back home wins vs Nebraska & Penn State, however this team has been flat out poor on the road with a 1-5 SU record with their only road win coming @ PSU by 4 points in a game the Nittany Lions blew and 2nd half double digit lead. On top of that, NW will be playing without one of their key starters, Ty Berry, who injured his knew 2 games ago vs Nebraska and is now out of the season. He is their top 3 point shooter and averages 12 PPG. He would also be key in this game vs the Rutgers full court pressure so his absence will be a problem here. We feel the Scarlet Knights will be a problem for a number of teams down the stretch and call for a home win and cover on Thursday night. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers +4 v. Warriors | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
ASA play on LA Clippers +4 vs. Golden State Warriors 10 PM ET - I’ll start with the fact that I’ve been wrong betting against Golden State in their last two games. That changes here as we get a win tonight with the Clippers in this Western Conference showdown. The Warriors have won 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 but only 1 of those wins came against a team the quality of the Clippers. Golden State was recently a 1-point dog to the Kings on this court and favored by 1.5 against the Lakers and lost both games. The Clippers are climbing the ranks in our power rankings and we currently have them as the 4th best team in the NBA. They are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to the Timberwolves and should bounce back here. The Clippers are 27-7 in their last 34 games and 5th best Adjusted Net rating in the NBA. LA is 15-11 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average net differential per game of +4.4PPG. The Clippers are 10-6 Su this season off a loss with an average +/- of +4.1PPG. Even though LA is likely without Kawhi Leonard here, buck the home team trend here of 9 straight winners. |
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02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 102-98 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA play on Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 9 PM ET - This is the ideal spot to back the Nuggets and fade the Kings. Denver returns home after a most recent loss to the Bucks. Sacramento has to play in the higher altitude after a huge game last night in Phoenix. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +3.8PPG. At home the Nugget are 21-4 SU this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +9.7PPG. Going back to the start of last season, nobody in the NBA has a better home record than Denver at 65-12 SU, +9.8PPG. The Kings were fantastic on the road a season ago but have regressed to 15-13 SU away this season with an average MOV of +0.1PPG. Going back to last season the Kings are 10-12 ATS when playing without rest. Lastly, this is a quick turnaround game for these teams as they just met in Sacramento where the Kings put a smackdown on the Nuggets in a 135-106 win. Denver was coming off a big win over the Lakers the night before while the Kings were rested. Easy call here with Denver at home. |
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02-14-24 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 146 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
#697/698 ASA PLAY ON Under 146 Points – Iowa vs Maryland, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Iowa likes to play up tempo but Maryland will want to slow this game down (304th in tempo) and limit Iowa’s offensive possessions. We feel they’ll get the pace they want at home. Iowa’s offensive numbers are very solid but they are a completely differently team on the road on that end of the court. The Hawkeyes average 13 fewer PPG on the road this season and shoot just 45% compared to almost 50% at home. We highly doubt Iowa reaches their offensive averages on the road here vs a Maryland defense that ranks #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and scoring defense. They also make offenses work very hard to get a shot off with the Terps allowing a shot every 18.2 seconds which is in the top 25 nationally. Offensively Maryland struggles so they need to win slow paced, low scoring games. They rank dead last in the Big 10 in scoring (conference games), 13th in offensive efficiency, and 13th in eFG%. The Terps games in conference play have averaged just 130 total points and that includes 2 OT games. If we subtract OT games, Maryland has not topped 142 total points in any conference game this season. When these 2 met in Iowa, where Hawks games average 172 total points, they put up just 136 (Maryland 69-67 win). |
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02-14-24 | VMI v. Furman OVER 164 | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
#659/660 ASA PLAY ON Over 163 Points – VMI vs Furman, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and the total was set at 166 and they scored 160 points. We’re getting this one a full 3 points lower than the first meeting (as of the opener which was 163) and we like the value on the Over. In the first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot 43.7% from the field (nothing great) and the combined to make only 17 FT’s in the game and they still reached 160 points. Furman put up 100 points in that game (100-60 final score) which may seem like an anomaly but that is not the case when facing this VMI defense. In fact, the Cadets have played 12 conference games this season and allowed at least 100 points in nearly half of those games (5)! On the season VMI is allowing 94 PPG in SoCon play. They rank outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed and they play at the 2nd fastest pace in the nation per KenPom. Needless to say we expect Furman, who averages over 80 PPG on the season, to possibly reach triple digits again. VMI’s offense doesn’t have good shooting numbers, however because they play so fast they average over 70 PPG on the season. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 7 of their 12 SoCon games this season. VMI is also facing a Furman defense that isn’t great ranking 321st in FG% allowed, 350th in FG made per game, and 331st in FG attempted per game. The Paladins also play very fast 59th in tempo per KenPom. We should have tons of offensive possessions in this game and the offenses should rule the day. Over is the play. |
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02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -5.5 | Top | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON San Diego State -5.5 over Colorado State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - SDSU is looking for revenge in this one after losing 79-71 @ CSU a few weeks ago. We were on the Rams in that game, but a completely different situation for this one. In that game CSU was off back to back road losses and in a must win spot at home. Now they travel to San Diego State, who is off an OT road loss @ Nevada on Friday and now back home where they are pretty much unbeatable. They’ve responded after each of their first 5 losses with wins and 4 of those bounce backs have come by double digits. The Aztecs are 11-0 SU at home this season with 10 of those 11 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 49-2 SU their last 51 home games. While San Diego State has been flawless at home, Colorado State is just 1-4 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. In the first meeting, CSU shot lights out at home hitting 54% of their shots, the Rams made 9 more FT’s in the 8 point win and averaged 1.20 PPP, the most SDSU has allowed to any opponent this season. Their home offensive numbers are very good but the Rams drop off quite drastically on the road. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after that poor performance @ CSU. They lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU has now allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. As we stated above the Aztecs home court advantage is among the best in college hoops and they’ve dominated CSU here winning 18 of the last 20 meetings. We’ll call for another win and cover for San Diego State tonight. |
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02-13-24 | Devils v. Predators OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
#25/26 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators, Tuesday at / PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Because of Nico Daws starting last night coupled with #1 goalie Vitek Vanecek currently out with an injury, the Devils options tonight are Daws again in the 2nd night of a B2B (always tough on a goalie) or go with the #3 guy Akira Schmid (3.38 GAA in 11 night game starts this season) who has been down in the American Hockey League until being called up because of the Vanecek injury. New Jersey expected to go with their third choice, Schmid, and he is expected to be matched up with Juuse Saros of the Predators. Note that Saros is struggling right now. Saros has a modest 2.97 GAA this season but has allowed 11 in his last 3 starts! Saros will face a Devils team that scored 3 early goals in their win last night and could have scored 5 or 6 goals in that game were it not for some great saves from the Kraken goalie. New Jersey looked great on the attack last night and they have scored at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 games. We expect each team to get to 3 goals here and force this one to get to at least a 4-3 final in Nashville. The Predators have allowed at least 4 goals in 5 of last 6 games. The Predators have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of last 7 home games! The Devils, prior to the 3-1 win over Seattle, had seen 5 of last 7 games total at least 8 goals! Based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6.5 at low juice across the board in this one! Over is our play here |
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02-13-24 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 227 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - Unfortunately, the All-Star break comes at a really bad time as, prior to tough Monday, we are locked in on the NBA right now. Tonight, we will bet the OVER in this Eastern Conference showdown. The Celtics are going to get to 120+ in this game as they average that number on the season. Boston is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.213-points per possession and has the 6th best Effective Field Goal percentage at 56.8%. The C’s should have an easy go of it on the offensive end of the court against a Nets defense that ranks 18th in defensive efficiency and allows 115.4PPG. The Nets defense has been even worse in their last five games allowing 1.228-points per possession and 120.6PPG. Boston is the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the league and should exploit a Brooklyn D that ranks 24th in opponents 3PT% allowed. We will need Brooklyn to score in this game but if they get to around 110 this game should go Over rather easily. The Nets average 113.9PPG on the season and do it with volume shooting as they rank 4th in FG attempts per game. We expect a total of 230 or more points. |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 121-100 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -4.5 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - We are betting the number here as this line is ‘light’ in our opinion and based on our power ratings. These teams met on January 14th in Minnesota and the Clippers were a 1-point road favorite. The Clippers were even without their starting center Zubac. That game went down to the wire with the Wolves winning by 4-points despite the Clippers shooting just 43% as a team and attempting 13 less FT’s. Minnesota shot 57% as a team and 50% from the 3-point line. The shooting percentages will even out tonight and we would expect the Clippers to get a few more calls as the home team. Minnesota is .500 or 36-36 SU their last 72 road games with a negative differential of minus -0.3PPG. In that same time frame the Clippers are 43-25 SU at home with an average +/- of +3.9PPG. The favorite has covered 7 of the last ten in this series and we expect Los Angeles to get a double-digit win here as they get revenge for that tight loss at Minnesota last month. Revenge home rout here! |
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02-12-24 | Warriors v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 129-107 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on Utah Jazz -1.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Jazz here who have been off since Thursday and will be well rested here. Golden State played a tough 5-game East Coast Road, then played a huge home game versus Phoenix and now travel back to Utah. The Warriors have won 4-straight games and 6 of their last seven games yet are a road dog here? The Jazz have recent home wins over the Bucks and Thunder who both grades out better than the Warriors. These two teams are much closer than you might think when it comes to offensive and defensive efficiency rating, yet the spread on this game is swayed by public money and influence for the Warriors. Utah is 17-7 SU at home this season with the 7th best average point differential at +7.6PPG. Going back to the start of last season the Warriors are 23-47 SU with an average differential of minus -2.4PPG. We will back the home team here. |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#881 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wake Forest +7 or +7.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - Too many points here to give a WF team we think will give Duke problems. The Deacs are an outstanding shooting team (25th in eFG%) especially from deep where they hit 38% of their triples (17th in the nation). That plays well into Duke’s defensive weakness as the Devils rank outside the top 135 defending the arc. The Demon Deacons have a number of players that can put the ball in the basket (4 guys averaging at least 14 PPG) making them a very tough guard. Wake is also a great FT shooting team hitting over 80% and they can score points (81 PPG) which makes it very tough to pull away from this team. In fact, 6 of their 7 losses this year have come by less than this spread with their only really poor outing coming @ UNC where they lost by double digits and made only 3 of 20 triples on the night (15%). Duke is 12-2 at home this year but they’ve had a few close calls to go along with their losses here vs Pitt & Arizona. They barely squeaked by Clemson (by 1 point) and struggled with a bad Ga Tech team (won by 5). Wake will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) Duke has faced at home this season and they’ve only faced 2 top 30 teams at Cameron Indoor this year losing vs Arizona and beating Clemson by 1 on 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining in the game. The Deacs have taken Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor each of the last 2 seasons losing both by 2 points so they will not be intimidated in this venue. We think this one goes to the wire and getting 7 points is a solid cushion. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 42 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - We’ll side with the better QB, the better defense, and the more experienced coach getting points in the Super Bowl. We’re all aware of the success KC has as an underdog. The Chiefs are on a tear that's seen them go 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. They were the outright winner in 15 of these games. Some of that predates Mahomes but if we look at the games where he was QB and the Chiefs were underdogs they are 10-1-1 ATS including winning 9 of those 12 games outright. The road KC took to get here was by far more impressive than what the Niners did. Mahomes and company beat a very good Miami team handily, then went on the road and beat the hottest team in the NFL (Buffalo) and followed that up with a road win at what most, including us, considered the best team in the NFL (Baltimore). Meanwhile, San Fran struggled to win home games vs 7 seed Green Bay and Detroit. Truth be told, the 49ers probably shouldn’t even be here as they led for only 27 minutes in those 2 games combined (out of 120 total minutes). SF QB Purdy is solid but is completely inexperienced in this spot and has looked a bit frazzled at times the first 2 games of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Mahomes has played in 17 playoff games (14-3 SU record) and 3 Super Bowls. Huge QB edge to KC. The Chiefs have better overall numbers defensively (PPG, YPG, YPP) and they have played very well during this playoff run holding a potent Miami offense to 7 points, Buffalo put up 24 but on only 4.7 YPP, and they held the Ravens to 10 points in Baltimore. The Niners gave up 31 points last week to Detroit and 21 to Green Bay although the Packers blew some opportunities and only punted 1 time in the game. The KC defense gave up 11 points less than SF in the playoffs despite playing an extra game! Over their last 6 games SF’s defense allowed 29, 33, 10 (vs Washington), 21, 21, and 31 points. Not great. KC’s impressive run through the AFC (winning as underdogs) puts them in a good spot historically. In fact, in the last 20 seasons, there have been 8 teams that won outright in Championship game as an underdog and those teams went on to win 6 times (out of 8) in the Super Bowl. On top of that, dogs have covered 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls and we’re confident it will happen again this year. We like KC to win this game outright so take the points. |
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02-11-24 | Kings v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 3 PM ET - The Thunder are coming off a big loss at Dallas yesterday and should bounce back at home where they are 20-6 SU this season. The Thunders starters should not be overly fatigued here as they had 3 days off prior to yesterday's game and didn’t play much versus Dallas in the blowout. As we mentioned, OKC is 20-6 SU at home, 17-9 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +10PPG. Sacramento could let down here as they are coming off a huge 29-point home win over the Nuggets on Friday evening. Sacramento is 15-12 SU away from home this season with an average MOV of +0.6PPG. The Kings rank 15th in turnovers per game and the Thunder are the best defense in the league in turning teams over. OKC also enjoys a huge advantage with their 3rd best shooting percentage at 49.9% versus a Kings D that allows opponents to hit 48.7% of their FGA’s which ranks 22nd. The Thunder are the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Kings are last in defending the 3-point line. Lastly the Thunder are playing with double revenge as they’ve lost twice to Sacramento this season. Lay the short number with OKC. |
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02-10-24 | Arizona v. Colorado -125 | Top | 99-79 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado Pick -123 or -1.5 -115 over Arizona, Saturday at 10 PM ET - With an option of -1.5 -115 or money line of -123, the latter would be the best option of course for such a small variance. We like the Buffaloes to win here at home! This is a really rough spot for the Wildcats taking on a very good Colorado team. The Cats just played @ Utah on Thursday night and won in triple OT with 4 of their starters logging at least 44 minutes in high altitude. Now just 48 hours later they are @ Colorado, where the Buffs are a perfect 13-0 SU at home, in high altitude again which should wear on Arizona both physically and mentally. The Utah to Colorado road trip is already considered the most difficult in the conference and coming off triple OT doesn’t make it any easier. On top of that, the Wildcats have not had much success in Boulder losing 5 straight and 7 of the 9 meetings here since the Buffs joined the Pac 12 back in 2011. Giving CU some extra motivation is the fact they were absolutely steamrolled in Tucson earlier this year by a final score of 97-50, by far their worst outing of the season as each of their other 6 losses this season came by single digits. It wouldn’t have mattered on that day but it’s worth noting that CU played without 2 starters in that game, Williams and DaSilva, who combined to average 30 PPG & 9 RPG. Despite their triple OT win on Thursday, Arizona has been vulnerable on the road already losing @ Stanford, @ Washington State, and @ Oregon State, none of which are rated as high as this Colorado team. This is a huge game for CU’s NCAA tourney hopes and a win pulls them to within 1 game of 1st place in the Pac 12 behind this Arizona team. The Buffs hit the road for their next 2 games and they are 1-6 on the road this year adding more importance to getting a win here. KenPom has Colorado rated as the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 (as do we) behind Arizona and in this situational spot we don’t see the Cats winning this game. Take the home team. |
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02-10-24 | Suns -1.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -1.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 3-0 against the Warriors this season and have that record despite one of their “big 3” not playing in each of those W’s. All-Star PG Booker sat out the Suns last game for load management but will play today so Phoenix will have their full complement of Stars. Golden State is playing their first game at home after a recent 5-game East coast road trip and will struggle in this match up. The Clippers, Lakers and Kings, a few other West coast teams, underperformed in their first games home after a similar travel schedule in recent weeks. The Suns are starting to look like the contender they were predicted to be prior to the start of the season. Phoenix has won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of 10. Golden State on the other hand has seen their Championship window close with an aging roster that hasn’t made any improvements. Phoenix is the better shooting team at 50% (3rd best) compared to the Warriors who rank 17th at 47.4%. The Warriors are 9th in 3-point percentage, but the Suns are 5th. When the Warriors were at their peak, they were one of the best teams in the league defensively. They don’t have that advantage here either as the Suns allow 1.157-points per possession compared to the Warriors who give up 1.172PPP. Steph Curry just scored 42-points against the Pacers and carried this Warriors team to a win. We don’t expect a repeat performance in this scheduling situation. I’m betting we also get a motivated effort from Kevin Durant against his former team. Lastly, the Suns being favored here tells us enough. Back Phoenix. |
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02-10-24 | Bulls +5 v. Magic | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The underdog is the way to go in this one as these two teams are very even and many aspects with the Bulls at 25-27 SU and the Magic at 28-24. Chicago is slightly better when it comes to offensive efficiency ratings at 1.137-points per possession compared to the Magic who average 1.129PPP. Defensively the Magic have the advantage allowing 1.119PPP compared to the Bulls giving up 1.153PPP. The two meetings between these two teams this season were close with the Magic winning by 6 and 2-points in the two meetings. In fact, the Underdog has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two Eastern Conference foes. The big edge we see the Bulls have in this matchup is the fact that they don’t turn it over like Orlando does. The Bulls average the 4th fewest TO’s per game, the Magic turn it over 14.4 times per game which is 23rd worst. Orlando has been a great favorite this year but the oddsmakers are starting to adjust their pricing on the Magic, giving us some added value here. Chicago has won 3 straight road games and are more than capable of hanging with the young Magic on their home court. |
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02-10-24 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville OVER 151 | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#773/774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – Georgia Tech vs Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Cards offense has been flat out really good over their last few games. They put up 101 points at home last weekend vs FSU and then followed that up with 92 points @ Syracuse on Wednesday. They averaged 1.25 and 1.17 PPP in those 2 games. While their offense seems to absolutely be peaking, the Cards defense stinks. They’ve allowed 90+ points in each of their last 2 games and they’ve given up at least 80 points in 7 of their 12 ACC games. They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and PPG allowed (81 PPG) in league games. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t any better. They rank 13th (out of 14) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (80 PPG). The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 80 points in every ACC road game this season. So we have the 2 worst defenses in the conference going head to head here. We’re also going to have a faster paced game with Louisville really focusing on up tempo as of late and for the season they rank 71st in tempo. Tech doesn’t mind playing fast and their offense ranks 6th in the conference in eFG% and 3 point FG%. They should do some damage vs this poor Card defense. Tech’s road games in conference play have totaled 158, 158, 183, 163, and 153 points. Louisville’s home games in league play have totaled 193, 121 (vs Virginia great defense, slow pace), 152, 171, and 153 points. The opener of 151 is too low for these teams. We’ll go Over the total. |
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02-10-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
#707 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This OSU team has to be completely demoralized at this point. Not only have they lost 8 of their last 9 games, they just blew an 18 point 2nd half lead at home on Tuesday night and lost to Indiana 76-73. That was only the 2nd road win this season for the Hoosiers. Blowing a huge lead like that we just can’t imagine this plummeting OSU team is in the right frame of mind right now. One telling statistic in regards to the Buckeyes is the fact they are 3-9 on Big 10 play (last place) despite playing the easiest conference schedule per KenPom. That speaks volumes. Maryland is coming of 2 straight losses vs Michigan State and Rutgers but this team is improving. They’ve also proven they can win on the road already beating Illinois, UCLA, and Iowa away from home this season. We’re getting a massive defensive edge in this game by siding with Maryland. They rank #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and scoring allowing only 63 PPG. Compare that to the Buckeyes who are dead last in the conference in defensive efficiency, dead last in 3 point FG% allowed, and 12th in eFG% allowed while giving up 77 PPG in league play. The Terps offensive numbers are nothing to write home about but they are facing one of the worst defenses in the Big 10. The Bucks aren’t great offensively either ranking just 8th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 12th in eFG% but facing a high level defense. We don’t expect them to do much at all vs this Maryland defense. OSU is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season in Big 10 play and they’ve won only 3 of those games outright. We like Maryland here. |
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02-09-24 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 232 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 232 Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams recently met in Houston with the Rockets winning big 135-106 which went Over the Total of 232. There was one outlier in that game in that the Rockets shot 595 as a team which is well above their season average of 46.4%. But the Raptors shot below their season average of 48% with a 44% night from the field. What we did learn from that game is both teams prefer an up-tempo pace as there were a combined 184 field goal attempts which is above league average of 178.8. Over their last five games the Rockets have played faster than normal with 102.5 possessions per game. They have an EFG% of 54.4%. Toronto has an EF% of 54.6% on the season but in their last five games that number improves to 56.1% which is a top 10 percentage. We don’t expect Houston to get to 135 in this game, but we are also betting the Raptors score more than 106. Toronto averages 114.5PPG at home this season. Toronto has struggled defensively of late as they have allowed 135 or more in four straight games and just allowed 117 to a Charlotte team that has struggled offensively this month. We are betting OVER in this one. |
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02-08-24 | Pistons v. Blazers -5 | Top | 128-122 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -5 vs Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - The Blazers find themselves in unfamiliar territory here as a favorite for only the 5th time this season. If we go back to the start of last season, they are 14-13 ATS as a home chalk with an average +/- of plus 4.6PPG. Portland is playing well right now with a 2-3 SU record in their last five games and two of those wins were against the Bucks and 76ers. Two of the losses were close games in Denver which speaks volumes of how much better this team is right now. Proving our point is their adjusted net ratings. On the season the Blazer ANR is -8.2, but in their last five games they are a positive +0.8. Detroit is 6-43 SU on the season with the worst road record in the league at 2-20 SU. They have one of the worst road differentials at minus -11.5PPG. Granted, the Pistons have covered 8 of their last ten games but only two of those games were away from home. Detroit has an adjusted net rating of -.9.5 for the season and -5.4 in their last five games. Portland has struggled offensively at times, but they should find plenty of open looks against this Pistons D that is 29th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.215-points per possession. We will lay the points with Portland. |
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02-08-24 | Florida Atlantic v. UAB +6 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +6 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We feel FAU has been overvalued this season after their performance last year which took them to the Final 4. We feel they are especially vulnerable on the road where they have a winning record this year but barely at 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS). You read that correctly, the Owls have played only 5 true road games this year out of their 22 total games. The Blazers are playing their best basketball right now and they are a very dangerous team at home, especially as an underdog as they are 8-1 ATS when getting points this season. They struggled a bit early and lost 3 home games prior to December 2nd, but they’ve since won 7 in a row at home and they are 53-9 SU here since the start of the 2020 season. Even last year when FAU was Final 4 caliber, they lost by 9 when they traveled to UAB and in fact they’ve never won at Bartow Arena (0-7 SU). The Blazers are coming off a 3 point loss @ SMU, the 2nd highest rated team in the AAC. They blew a 12 point lead with under 10 minutes to play in the game in that loss. That was 1 of only 3 losses for UAB since mid December (10-3 SU record) and the others were both on the road as well @ Charlotte and @ FAU, tonight’s opponent. In that first meeting back in mid January, FAU hit 49% of their shots while the Blazers made only 39% and just 19% from 3 (5 of 26). UAB is 6-3 in conference play despite playing the 2nd most difficult schedule in AAC play having already faced all 4 league teams ranked in the top 100 nationally (UAB has 2-2 record in those games). This will be their 4th straight games vs those top 4 AAC teams and in their previous 3 they beat Memphis and North Texas and took SMU to the wire as we mentioned. We give the Blazers a great shot to win here and if it’s tight as we expect we get some extra cushion with the points. |
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02-08-24 | Capitals v. Panthers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals -100) over Washington Capitals, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - Florida is in a great spot here which is why they are a -270 favorite on the money line. Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the even money range on this one. Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Panthers in this spot. However, we will mention that the expected starters are Darcy Kuemper for the Capitals and Sergei Bobrovsky for the Panthers. Kuemper lost his starting job to Charlie Lindgren because of performance but now Lindgren is off a rough start so here comes Kuemper again. He has had a very rough season with his performance away from home being particularly bad. Kuemper has lost 8 of 12 road decisions and has a 3.77 GAA away from home this season! Bobrovsky was in the All-Star game so he was given a break in Tuesday's loss to the Flyers. Now he is back for this start and he is having a fantastic season. This is the perfect situation for a big play on the Panthers as they are off a home loss and now can take advantage of a struggling Capitals team. Washington has lost 13 of 18 games and 9 of their last 12 losses have been by 2 or more goals. Already without Backstrom since late October now they are without Kuznetsov and this Capitals team is just not at the same level as the Caps teams of recent seasons. Florida has been trending the opposite direction of Washington as they had won 13 of 17 games prior to the 2-1 loss to the Flyers Tuesday. The Panthers had scored an average of 4 goals per game last 17 games prior to the loss to Philly. The Capitals have had trouble scoring goals for much of this season and enter this game having scored just 19 goals in last 11 road games! Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Florida is the value play here. |
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02-08-24 | Samford v. NC-Greensboro -115 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro Pick or -1 over Samford, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We played against this UNCG team on Sunday @ Furman and picked up a loss as the Spartans upset the Paladins on the road 89-87. We were very impressed with that win as UNCG was in a tough spot playing the 2nd of back to back road games and their 3rd in 4 games away from home. They also had this huge revenge game on deck but they stayed focused on a full strength Furman team that was undervalued (due to earlier season injuries) but now back at full strength. The Paladins, with their injury woes behind them, had won 6 of 7 games entering Sunday including topping Samford by 10 at home. Impressive win for UNCG. Now they are back at home where the Spartans are 9-1 this season and 20-4 since the start of last season. One of those 4 home losses in the last 2 seasons was vs this Samford team last year as Greensboro lost by 2 missing a 3 point shot at the buzzer which would have given them the win giving the Spartans a little extra motivation along with the loss they suffered @ Samford earlier this season. UNCG is hitting their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games and they sit 1 game behind Samford for 1st place in the SoCon so a win here pushes them into a tie at the top of the league. The Bulldogs offensive numbers for the season are impressive but they drop WAY off on the road. At home Samford averages a ridiculous 95 PPG but in their 9 road games they’ve only averaged 72 PPG. They make 45% of their triples at home and that drops to only 34% away from home. It’s also the 2nd of back to back road games for Samford and their 3rd in 4 on the road. Now they take those deflated road numbers into Greensboro where the Spartans have been terrific. They’ve outscored opponents by an average score of 85-66 at home while shooting 51% overall and 44% from 3. The Bulldogs were +3 @ Furman (lost by 10), +2 @ Western Carolina, and +2 @ Chattanooga in league play, all teams rated below UNCG yet the Spartans are a lighter favorite (line opened UNCG -1). We like the home team to get this win on Thursday night |
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02-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6.5 at LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the red hot Clippers who have just played 7 straight games on the East Coast and only had 1 day off prior to this contest. New Orleans has won 3 straight games, the most recent was a 38-point blowout of the Raptors in which their starters played very few minutes. This will be the 3rd meeting of the season between these two teams with the road team winning both. The most recent clash was on January 5th in New Orleans which resulted in a Clippers 111-95 victory. The Pelicans had a horrendous night shooting by making 33/92 FG attempts or 36%. New Orleans is the 9th best shooting team in the league at 48.7% overall and own the 7th best 3PT%. These two teams have many similar statistics as the Clippers shoot 49.6% or 5th best and have the best overall 3PT% in the NBA. When it comes to defense the Pelicans rank 9th in defensive efficiency, the Clippers are 10th. The Pels hold opponents to 46.4% shooting, the Clippers give up 46.4%. The Clippers have 5 more wins on the season than the Pelicans, but these two teams are very even numbers wise. Given the travel circumstances, we won’t be surprised if New Orleans pulls the upset. Grab the points! |
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02-07-24 | Alabama v. Auburn OVER 163 | Top | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
#693/694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 163 Points – Alabama vs Auburn, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met back in late January with the total set at 161 points they stayed Under hitting 154. Now, despite that game going Under the total, tonight’s total opened 2 points higher than where the total in January closed. Interesting. The oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are. In that first game both teams played well below their offensive averages for the season. Bama hit just 38% of their shots while Auburn hit just under 41% and they were a combined 54 for 135 for just 40%. From beyond the arc they combined to make only 16 of 55 attempts for 29%. When we look at their points per possession numbers, Bama was 1.05 PPP and Auburn was 1.00 PPP. Even with those poor offensive numbers, these 2 still hit 154 total points! Comparing those PPP numbers, For the season both rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency (PPP) with the Crimson Tide averaging 1.26 and Auburn 1.19. So as you can see, neither team was anywhere close to what they average for the year. Bama leads the nation in scoring averaging 90 PPG and Auburn is in the top 25 at 83 PPG. Both teams play very fast so we expect lots of possessions. Both defenses foul a lot as well with each ranking in the top 90 in opponents percentage of points at the FT line and when they get there, Bama hits 79% and Auburn makes 76%. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games this season and the Tigers have also hit at least 80 points in 16 of their 22 games. We look for both teams to hit at least 80 in this one so we like the Over on Wednesday night. |
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02-07-24 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech -9.5 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
#700 ASA PLAY ON Louisiana Tech -9.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - La Tech is by far the best team in CUSA (ranked 66th nationally – the only team in CUSA in the top 100) and they’ve been simply destroying teams at home. They are a perfect 11-0 SU at home winning by an average margin of +22 points and they’ve held their opponents to an average of only 58 PPG at home. The Bulldogs are in the top 10 nationally in both FG% allowed (38%) and PPG allowed (62 PPG). They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 60 points. This will be easily the best defense Western Kentucky has faced this season. The Hilltoppers have an offensive efficiency rating of 225th in the nation, yet they’ve only faced ONE defense prior to tonight that ranks in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. They are the fastest paced team in the country per KenPom and they average 78 possessions per game, 2nd in the nation. The problem with that is, they are playing a much better team on the road and that allowed La Tech to have a number of extra offensive possessions as well. In a game where you are a heavy underdog, you don’t want to give the favorite more opportunities to pull away. There are only 2 other teams in CUSA ranked in the top 100 in tempo and the Bulldogs beat those teams by 40 & 14 points. On top of that, Western has been a poor road team not winning a single away game in conference play (0-3 SU). The Topper prefer to play inside the arc with 57% of their points coming for 2 point land (29th most nationally). The problem here is, Louisiana Tech limits their opponents to 2 point FG% of just 42% which is the best mark in the entire country. This will be WKY’s 3rd game in 7 days while LT has had a full week off to get ready and rest for this game. La Tech wins this one by double digits. |
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02-06-24 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 or +4 at Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Bucks have been on the road since Jan 29th and are playing with a day off after a loss in Utah. Phoenix meanwhile is returning home for their first game after a long 7-game road trip, and we like to fade teams in this situation. Prior to the extended road trip, the Suns had won two straight at home over Chicago and Indiana, but both were close and decided by 2 and 7-points. The Bucks are 1-3 SU on this trip and after that embarrassing loss in Utah we like them to bounce back here. Milwaukee sat Khris Middleton as a precaution in their last game, but he’s expected back for this game. The Bucks have an offensive efficiency advantage as they average 1.208 points per possession compared to the Suns who average 1.188PPP. Defensively the Suns have a slight edge allowing 1.160PPP compared to the Buck who give up 1.172PPP. Milwaukee has an edge when it comes to 3-point shooting though as they rank 7th best in 3PT% and the Suns rank 4th. But the Bucks defend the Arc much better, holding opponents to the 6th lowest 3PT% in the league at 35.1% compared to a Phoenix team that ranks 17th in 3PT% D. Milwaukee has won 3 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight. We expect that trend to continue and will ride the Bucks here plus the points. |
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02-06-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma +1 | Top | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +1 over BYU, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - This line opened with BYU as a 1 point favorite and our power ratings have Oklahoma favored so we’ll grab the Sooners at home. OU started the season winning 15 of their first 18 games and now they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 which is why we are getting some value here. This is the first time this season that the Sooners have been a home dog (again if the opener holds as BYU favored). They’ve already been favored at home over Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech, among others. They are catching BYU playing their 2nd of back to back road games after the Cougars won @ WVU (worst team in the Big 12) on Saturday. That improved BYU’s record in true road games to just 2-3 on the year but those 2 wins came against WVU (as we mentioned) and UCF, 2 of the 4 Big 12 teams ranked outside the top 65 nationally. Oklahoma will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) that BYU has faced on the road this year, 2nd only to Baylor who topped the Cougs by 9 points. They were 4.5 point dogs in that road game and now favored vs a OU team that sits only 8 spots lower than Baylor in the KenPom ratings. Tough travel for BYU here having traveled from the west coast to the east coast to take on WVU and now they go straight to the south for a game only a few days later. They might be without starting big man Khalifa, who has an illness & a minor injury and is not currently in Oklahoma with the team. BYU relies as heavily as any team in the country on the 3 point shot (2nd most attempts in the nation) and they are facing an Oklahoma defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing just 28% from deep while allowing just 63 PPG at home. This is a must win, get right spot for OU at home and we like them to win this one. |
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02-06-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 127.5 | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two of the best defensive teams in the nation squaring off here should lead to very low scoring game. They both rank in the top 6 nationally in defensive efficiency and when we narrow it down to Big 10 games only, Maryland is #1 in that category and Rutgers is #2. They both make opposing offense work to get decent shots with the average offensive possession vs these defenses last 18.2 seconds. That ranks both in the top 30 nationally. They both create lots of turnovers (each ranked in top 50) which should lead to a number of empty possessions. Shooting will be a problem in this one. These are the 2 worst shooting teams in the conference in Big 10 play with each making less than 40% of their shots. They are also poor 3 point shooting teams ranking 13th and 14th in the conference in 3 point FG% and neither shoots very many from deep. On top of all that, the Scarlet Knights and Terps are also the 2 lowest scoring teams in the conference, both in league games and overall. These 2 Big 10 rivals have faced each other 4 times since January of 2021 and none of those games have topped 128 total points so they are used to playing low scoring grinders. They played once last season and tallied 114 total points. The Terps are a very slow paced team and should get the tempo at home which will limit possessions for both teams. Under is the play. |
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02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs -5 | Top | 110-136 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on Cleveland Cavaliers -5 vs Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - We missed our last bet against the Kings but will double down with the Cavs here. Scheduling certainly favors the Cavs in this matchup as the Kings are playing their 7th straight road game in 12 days. Sacramento jumped out to a big lead against the Bulls the other night, but the fatigue factor showed late in the game. The Bulls came all the way back from down 30 in the 3rd quarter to down 3-points late in the game. The Cavs have been off for a few days and have been playing well the past few weeks with 5-straight wins and 9 of their last ten. Cleveland have won 7 straight home games and all but one have come by 5 or more points. The Cavs don’t have a great overall home record at 17-8 SU but do own an average +/- of +5PPG. Sacramento is 15-11 SU away from home this season with an average differential of +1.6PPG. Cleveland owns the 4th best FG% defense in the NBA allowing 45.5% shooting to opponents. They also defend the 3-point line well, ranking 8th best in foes 3PT% against. The Kings on the other hand have struggled on the defensive end of the court allowing teams to shoot 48.4% which is 21st worst in the league. They don’t defend the 3PT line either, ranking 29th in that defensive category. The Cavs lost at Sacramento earlier this season but this is a shot at revenge and they make the most of this favorable spot! Cleveland delivers the revenge payback! Lay the points. |
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02-04-24 | Bucks v. Jazz -115 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA play on Utah Jazz -1 or Pick -115 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are off a solid win in Dallas last night and will struggle tonight without rest in Utah. The Jazz are off 3-straight losses, the most recent coming at home against Philly. Utah had played a tough 6-game road trip prior to the loss to the 76ers. Now that they are rested, we like them to get this home victory. Utah is 15-7 SU at home this season with a net point differential of +7.2PPG which is 10th best in the league. As of this writing the Jazz are a -1-point favorite here which puts them in the 7-1 SU role as a home dog with an average MOV of +14.3PPG. The Bucks are only slightly better than .500 with a 12-11 SU record as a visitor with an average differential of +1.4PPG. Milwaukee is 0-3 ATS as a road dog this season. These two teams met in early January in Milwaukee with the Jazz coming away with a 132-116 victory. Lillard did not play in that game, but the Jazz still shot 52% as a team against a Bucks defense that hasn’t lived up to expectations this season. Utah has won 9 of their last eleven home games and have impressive wins over the likes of: the Knicks, Mavs, Nuggets, Lakers and Pacers Fade the Bucks here and back the Jazz. |
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02-04-24 | Nebraska v. Illinois -9.5 | Top | 84-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#858 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -9.5 over Nebraska, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers are coming off a massive, energy draining home win over then #6 Wisconsin. It took a huge comeback from Nebraska to pick up that OT win as they trailed at one point by 19 points and were down 16 at halftime. That was on Thursday night not giving them much time to recoup and re-energize for this road game. Illinois, on the other hand, won by double digits @ Ohio State on Tuesday so they’ve had 2 extra days to rest and prepare. The Huskers have been fantastic at home beating the likes of Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. However, when they’ve taken to the road, they’ve been terrible. They are 0-5 SU & ATS on the road in Big 10 play with every loss but 1 (vs Rutgers) coming by double digits. Their average margin of defeat on the road in conference play is 14.5 points and now they face one of the top few teams in the league and we expect another double digit loss. The Illini are back at full strength with leading scorer Shannon (20 PPG) back in the lineup after missing 6 straight games in January. Since his return they are 3-1 with their only loss coming in OT @ Northwestern. Illinois sits in 3rd place behind Purdue & Wisconsin and those 2 meet today so a chance for U of I to gain ground on one of those 2 teams with a win here. The Huskers live and die by the 3 taking more shots from beyond the arc than anyone else in the Big 10. This will be a tough task for them as they don’t shoot it as well on the road and they are facing an Illinois defense that allows just 31% from deep overall and just 27% at home. Watch the Huskers run out of gas in the 2nd half and Illinois pulls away for a big win. |
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02-04-24 | NC-Greensboro v. Furman -3.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
#846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Furman -3.5 over UNC Greensboro, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Furman remains undervalued right now in our opinion. This team won the SoCon last year and returned most of their key contributors that beat Virginia in the NCAA tourney last year before losing to San Diego State who went on to play in the National Championship game. The problem this year with the Paladins is they have rarely had everyone available with a multitude of injuries creating problems with continuity. That includes their top 3 scorers all missing time this season, including top scorer Foster (19 PPG) who recently returned after a 9 game absence. This team was 28-8 last season and they are sitting at 12-10 right now, however they are healthy with everyone on board and have been for a few weeks now. That’s why they are on a current 6-1 run which started in early January. During that stretch they’ve faced the 2 highest rated teams in the SoCon (per KenPom), Samford and Western Carolina, and beat both of them. Greensboro sits in 2nd place in the conference one game behind Samford and with a win here, Furman can move into a tie for 2nd place. UNCG is 7-2 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. These 2 met back in December and UNCG won by 9 but Furman, as we mentioned their injuries, played that game without their top 3 scorers (Foster, Williams, and Pegues) who are all back and healthy now. They are undefeated at home in conference play despite their injury issues, and the Paladins have won 15 of their last 16 games here at Timmons Arena. Last year they were favored by 6 at home vs UNCG and now only laying 3.5 with basically the same team. We’ll call for Furman to win and cover this small number. |
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02-03-24 | Bucks -4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 129-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - There is something going on with this spread and looks to us as if the Oddsmakers are begging you to take the Mavericks at home plus the points. With more tickets and money being placed on the Mavs the line should not be going up in favor of Milwaukee. The Bucks are coming off two straight losses in new head coach Doc Rivers coaching debuts but have now had time to acclimate to his new systems. This Bucks team is one of the five best teams in the NBA, and they have lost 3-games in a row just two times in the past three regular seasons. Dallas is coming off a horrible showing in Minnesota in their last game which resulted in a 87-121 blowout loss. Dallas played without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in that game but should have Doncic back here. The Mavs have lost three straight at home as Underdogs to the Kings, Suns and Celtics with all three losses coming by 5 or more points. Milwaukee has the better offensive efficiency numbers and better defensive efficiency numbers despite it being a down year for them on the defensive end of the court. Milwaukee has won and covered 3 straight against Dallas and 4 of the last five. Lay the points with the Bucks. |
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02-03-24 | Kings v. Bulls -125 | Top | 123-115 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA play on Chicago Bulls -1.5 or Pick'em -125 vs Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the Bulls in this matchup as the Kings are coming off a game last night, playing their 3rd in four days and 6th in ten days which have all been on the road. Not to mention, the game last night had a little extra meaning for the Kings/Pacers players that were involved Sabonis/Haliburton trade. The Kings core rotation of players logged heavy minutes last night so this back-to-back is going to be especially tough. The Bulls have been off for a few days and have been playing well the past few weeks with an 8-5 SU record their last thirteen games. Chicago is 14-11 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +2PPG. Dating back to the start of last season the Bulls have been profitable when playing with 2-3 days rest with a 16-9 ATS record and an average MOV of +3.2PPG. Sacramento is 9-12 ATS their last 21 when playing without rest and have a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. The home team has won 5 of the last six in this series and we expect that trend to continue here. |
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02-03-24 | Florida v. Texas A&M -2.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2.5 over Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Great situation spot here for the Aggies. They are coming off a home loss vs Ole Miss 71-68 as an 8 point favorite last Saturday and they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. They are facing the Gators who’ve been a bit lucky winning back to back games in OT including @ Kentucky on Wednesday evening. In their win over UK the Gators hit a 3 pointer as time expired to send the game to OT and won 94-91 in the extra session. The Wildcats were undermanned in that loss as they played without 2 starters (Edwards & Wagner) who combine to average over 20 PPG. Now after that huge road win Florida is on the road again only a few days later and they have a huge home game with Auburn next. That was just the 2nd road win this year for Florida (2-3 record) and just their 2nd road win vs a top 100 team since the start of last season. In their 5 road games, Florida is shooting just 39% on offense and their defense has allowed 86 PPG in those games. A&M is 12-8 on the year but half of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer including taking Houston (#1 KenPom team) to the wire on the road before losing by 4. Coming off a home loss, the Aggies are now in a must win spot at home with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They’ve won 25 of their last 29 home games. A&M was just an 8 point favorite here vs an Ole Miss team that has an 18-3 record. They were -3 here vs Kentucky a few weeks ago (a 5 point A&M win) who is rated 10 spots higher than Florida. This line is off (opened -1.5). Should be higher so we’re catching some solid value with a desperate home team. |
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02-03-24 | Utah State v. San Diego State -4.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -4.5 over Utah State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This has been a good situation for us this year taking an unranked home team as a favorite vs a rated road team. The fact is, ranked teams on the road have been a big time money burner this season with a 58-80 ATS record. USU steps into this game with a 19-2 overall record and ranked #17 in the polls yet they are a fairly significant underdog here (SDSU opened -5). That in and of itself speaks volumes. The Aztecs are 16-5 on the year and they’ve played the much tougher overall schedule (11th SOS nationally). KenPom actually has San Diego State rated higher than Utah State despite the records and we agree with that assessment. All 5 of the Aztecs losses have come on the road vs teams currently ranked in the top 65. Their most recent game was a 79-71 loss @ Colorado State (we were on CSU) on Tuesday night. Now they have a chance to bounce back at home where they are pretty much unbeatable with a 10-0 record this year and a 48-2 record their last 50 at home. SDSU has responded nicely with wins after each of their losses this season including 4 of those 5 wins coming by double digits. All 10 of the Aztecs home wins this year have come by double digits with an average final score of 77-59. They rank #1 in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. This is a must win for them as they sit at 5-3 in league play and Utah State is 7-1. SDSU cannot drop another game behind the conference leader. The Aggies are 3-1 in conference road games but they’ve been shaky away from home despite that record. Their lone easy win away from home was @ Air Force, by far the worst team in the conference. Their other road games were a 13 points loss @ New Mexico, a 1 point win @ UNLV in a game they trailed throughout and never led by more than 1 point, and an OT win @ Boise, again come from behind late to force OT. Their efficiency numbers on both ends of the court drop off quite a bit on the road. Since joining the MWC back in 2014, Utah State has faced San Diego State on the road 8 times. They are 0-8 SU in those games with 7 of the losses coming by at least 10 points. We like SDSU at home on Saturday. |
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02-02-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -11.5 vs. Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - We typically don’t lay big numbers in the NBA, but we will make an exception tonight with Denver. The Nuggets sat All-Star/MVP Jokic in their last game, a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he’s expected back tonight. The Blazers are coming off a huge upset over the Bucks the other night in Dame Lillards return to Portland and we expect them to letdown tonight. Portland has one of the worst road records in the NBA dating back to last season at 22-44 SU with an average differential of minus -7.5PPG. In that same time frame the Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 63-12 SU with the second-best average point differential of +9.7PPG. When we compare each teams recent spreads we find the Nuggets were favored by -8.5-points over the 76ers at home and even minus -10.5 against the Pacers in mid-January. Portland was just plus +10.5-points at home against the Bucks and were double-digit dogs at Houston, OKC and the Lakers. The Blazers are one of the poorest shooting teams in the league at 44% which ranks 29th and their 3PT% isn’t much better ranking 25th at 35.5%. Denver is a tough team to make shots against with the 9th best FG% defense and 13th best 3PT% D. Denver is going to have a much easier time scoring also with the 5th best shooting percentage in the NBA at 49.4% going up against a Blazer defense that allows 49.5% (26th). The advantage on the glass for Denver is also going to be an issue for Portland who rank 30th in defensive rebounds per game. With Denver off a loss and back at home, versus a young Portland team off a huge win, we will back the Nuggets and lay the points. |
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02-02-24 | Magic +8 v. Wolves | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic +8 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to back the Magic and fade the Wolves in this East vs West matchup. These teams recently met in Orlando on Jan 9th with the Wolves winning 113-92 as a -5.5-point road favorite. At first glance that would mean tonight’s line should be at a minimum -12, but the Magic were missing 3 starters in the earlier clash, hence the lack of adjustment. Orlando is healthy here and playing well with their regular rotation back on the floor. The Magic are 2-2 SU in their last four games and the two losses were by 2-points or less. Orlando is 10-16 SU on the road this season but 8-4 ATS their last twelve as a road underdog. Minnesota is coming off a pair of big Western Conference wins against the Thunder and Mavericks and may let down here against a Magic team they recently beat by double-digits. The Wolves have the 4th best home record in the NBA at 18-4 and own a spread record of 12-8-2 ATS. Both teams are coming off a win in their previous game and it’s interesting how each has done in this role this season. The Magic are 16-8 ATS when coming off a ‘W’ which is the 3rd best number in the NBA. Minnesota on the other hand is 15-16-2 ATS off a win. When we look at each teams last five games we find they are near even in both offensive and defensive efficiency which would indicate these teams are playing much closer right now than the 8-point spread. |
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02-01-24 | Seattle University v. Grand Canyon -9.5 | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Grand Canyon -9.5 over Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Grand Canyon is easily the best team in the WAC (only team in the top 100 in that conference) and they sit at the top of the standings with a 9-1 conference record, 19-2 overall. Their only non-conference loss came @ South Carolina by 7 points, a Gamecock team that is now 18-3 and sits in 2nd place in the SEC. Grand Canyon had a chance in that one as they led by 11 in the 2nd half. Their only other loss this season was in conference play vs this Seattle team just 12 days ago. The Antelopes were favored by 5 on the road in that game and now they are laying only 9 (opening line) in this one. We have this one power rated with GC as a 12 point favorite so some nice value here. In that 86-79 loss less than 2 weeks ago, Seattle shot lights out at home hitting 51% of their shots (their average is 43%) and 50% of their triples (their average is 31%). The Redhawks averaged 1.10 PPP in that win against a GC defense that leads the WAC in defensive efficiency giving up only 0.91 PPP. So as you can see, a lot had to go prefect for Seattle to get that win but despite the red hot shooting GC led for most of the 2nd half including with under 2:00 remaining so the 7 point margin was quite deceiving. The Antelopes are happy to be home, where they are 10-0 on the season, after a 3 game road trip. They are facing a Seattle team that is 1-6 SU on the road this season and dating back to last year they’ve won only 2 of their last 13 road tilts. We like Grand Canyon to win this one by double digits and get their quick revenge at home tonight. |
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02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 240.5 | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 240.5 Indiana Pacers @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - When the Pacers come to town it’s literally like the Circus is arriving as fans will be guaranteed an exciting evening of entertainment. Indiana is the second fastest paced team in the league at 102.6 possessions per game. They love to run and score the 4th most points per game in transition and are the 7th most efficient on the break. The Pacers are the most efficient offense in the league averaging 1.217-points per possession while scoring 124.8PPG. What the Pacers don’t do well is defend. Indiana is 26th in points allowed per possession (DEFF) at 1.197PPP and gives up on average 122.8PPG. The Knicks on the other hand do everything well with the 7th OEFF & DEFF rating on the season. I do see a trend with the Knicks and it’s when the oddsmakers post a Total of 240 or more they tend to be high scoring games. In 5 games involving the Knicks this season with an O/U of 240 or more, all but one has finished with 240 or more points being scored. One of those games was against the same Pacers team and that game had an O/U number of 248 and the two teams combined for 266 points. Indiana and their opponent have totaled 253 total points in 3 of their last four games overall. We will play OVER in this one. |
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01-31-24 | Sharks v. Ducks OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#69/70 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Because of Mackenzie Blackwood starting last night, the Sharks options tonight were Blackwood again in the 2nd night of a B2B (always tough on a goalie) or go with the struggling Kaapo Kahkonen. San Jose expected to go with Kahkonen and he is expected to be matched up with John Gibson of the Ducks. Note that Gibson has a 3.09 GAA this season and if they go with Lukas Dostal he has a 3.50 GAA this season. Gibson is slated to start and he has allowed 30 goals in his last 8 starts! Also, he just allowed 4 goals in most recent start and gave up 4 goals to the Sharks in a recent 5-3 loss. As for San Jose goalie Kahkonen, he had a 3.85 GAA last season and is having another rough season including a 3.86 GAA this month! Both these clubs allow a lot of shots on goal and have struggled on the penalty kill this season. San Jose is off a 2-0 win and has won 4 of 5 games! The low-scoring win was a rarity and was the first shutout for Blackwood this season but prior to that, 3 of last 4 Sharks games totaled 7 or more goals! The Ducks are off a 3-2 win but this followed Anaheim allowing 4 goals per game on average over their last 8 games. Anaheim, prior to the 3-2 win, was on a stretch in which 8 of 9 games totaled 6 or more goals. Those 8 games that did had an average of 7.5 goals and, based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6 across the board in this one! Over is our play here |
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01-31-24 | Boise State v. New Mexico -10.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -10.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - No reason to jump off this New Mexico train right now. We were on them on Sunday vs Nevada and the Lobos simply rolled the Wolfpack 89-55. They were favored by -8.5 in that game and now are laying -9 (opening line) vs a Boise team that is rated almost the exact same as Nevada. The oddsmakers are having trouble catching up with how good this team is at home. They are now 11-0 SU at home and 9-1 ATS here at the Pit and going back further they’ve won 28 of their last 32 games here. The Lobos are now rated as the best team in the MWC and #19 overall nationally per KenPom. They have already faced 3 other conference contenders at the Pit and rolled them all beating Boise State by 34, San Diego State by 18, and Utah State (who is alone in first place) by 13. As we stated in our write up for Sunday’s game, the Lobos have led by at least 18 points in every home game but 1 and their margin of victory at the Pit is +24 PPG. After starting 3-0 in conference play, Boise has looked vulnerable over the last few weeks with a 2-2 record and both losses coming at home. Their one road game during that stretch was a tight 4 point win @ Fresno State, the lowest rated team in the MWC. The Broncos offense hasn’t been great in conference play ranking 9th in efficiency and 11th (last) in eFG%. Keeping up with an offense that isn’t shooting well will be a big problem in this game facing a New Mexico team that has averaged 91 PPG on their current 5 game winning streak. The Lobos continue to be undervalued and have the 7th best spread record in CBB at 15-5 (75%). We like them to pick up another easy home win on Wednesday. |
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01-31-24 | Bucks v. Blazers +10.5 | Top | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +10.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 10:10 PM ET - The Bucks haven’t been great off a loss with a 20-19-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season and an average margin of victory in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks are coming off an ‘L’ in Denver on Monday in new head coach Doc Rivers debut. Milwaukee has an overall 11-10 SU road record this season with an average +/- of +1.1PPG. Portland is 8-13 SU at home on the season but 9-8 ATS as a home dog with a negative differential of minus -3.6PPG. The Blazers have been competitive as a home dog with a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven in that situation and the lone loss could have easily been a win against the Bulls just two games ago. In that game the Blazers had a horrible shooting night of 41% overall and 18% from Deep, both well below season averages. If we compare these two teams season averages we see the Bucks hold a massive offensive efficiency advantage but the two teams are even in DEFF. In the last five games of each team though the numbers are very close. The Bucks are averaging 1.166-points per possession, Portland is at 1.151PPP. Defensively, the Blazers are allowing 1.137PPP, the Bucks are giving up 1.119PPP. A lot is going to be made of Dame Lillard returning home to Portland and having a big game, but let’s not forget the Blazers roster is made up of guys out to show Dame he was wrong for leaving. We will grab the double-digits here. |
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01-31-24 | Pelicans -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 at Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - First off, we know the Rockets have been very good at home this season with a 17-8 SU record on their home court. The situation favors the Pelicans here who come into this game needing a win after 3 straight losses, while the Rockets just beat the Laker at home. The Pelicans 3 most recent losses came against the two best teams in the East at Milwaukee and at Boston. Prior to that the Pels lost to the Thunder. New Orleans is 9-7 SU their last sixteen games, but the 7 losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. On the season the Pelicans have faced the 7th toughest schedule to date yet have a winning 26-21 SU record and the 9th best adjusted net rating in the NBA. Houston has been a nice story this season, but their positive results don’t look sustainable with the current roster. In fact, it may be catching up with them as they are 7-12 SU in their last nineteen games. New Orleans should enjoy a sizable advantage from beyond the Arc with the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA compared to a Rockets team that is the 27th worst in 3PT%. The Rockets have beaten the Pelicans twice this season but we are predicting payback here for New Orleans. |
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01-31-24 | St. John's v. Xavier -120 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
#670 ASA PLAY ON Xavier -1 or Pick -120 over St John’s. Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - Look for Xavier to play very well in this game after an absolutely embarrassing performance no Sunday @ UConn. The Musketeers lost that game 99-56 in what UConn coach Danny Hurley said was “one of our best performances on both ends of the court”. The Huskies shot 59% overall and 58% from beyond the arc and just missed triple digits. That alone should give Xavier plenty of motivation as they come back home on Wednesday. On top of that, XU already lost @ St John’s in December 81-66 in what was their 2nd worst performance of the season behind their effort @ UConn on Sunday. In that loss @ St John’s they shot just 35% and made only 19% of their triples. The Johnnies might be a bit overconfident after that first meeting and they have a massive game at home on Saturday vs UConn so a flat spot is possible here. The Musketeers have played the #1 most difficult conference slate and the #2 most difficult schedule in the nation overall (per KenPom). They have already faced Houston, Purdue, and UConn (twice) the #1, #2, and #3 teams in the nation per KenPom. XU has only 1 home loss in Big East play and that was a 5 point setback to UConn. They also went to the wire here with Houston (#1 per KenPom) losing by 6 so they’ve shown they can compete with the best in the nation at the Cintas Center. St John’s is just 2-3 SU in road games and in league play the Johnnies are the worst 3 point shooting team (30%) and the worst FT shooting team (69%). With the opening line set at -1 for the host, we simply need Xavier to win this game and we think they will. |
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01-30-24 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - After starting the season 13-1, CSU has now lost 4 of their last 6 games and they are in need of a home win. All 4 of their losses during this current stretch came on the road but at home this team has been outstanding. They are 10-1 SU on the season at home and their only loss came by 3 points vs St Mary’s in a game where Colorado State played without 2 of their top 6 players and still almost won. The Rams offense has been deadly ranking in the top 10 in FG% while averaging over 80 PPG. At home this offense has played at another level making 53% of their shots, over 40% of their 3’s, and putting up 85 PPG. Not sure the Aztecs can keep up here as they shoot just 43% on the road and barely average 70 PPG away from home. SDSU has a 3-4 record in true road games and 2 of those 3 wins came vs teams ranked outside the top 100 and both went to the wire beating UC San Diego by 1 and San Jose State by 3. The Aztecs have played the easiest strength of schedule (conference games) and they still have 2 losses. They’ve been outscored by an average of -3 PPG on the road this season and they have a gigantic home game on deck vs 1st place Utah State. CSU has a very solid record of 7-4 SU vs top 100 teams including wins over Creighton, Colorado, and New Mexico. SDSU was in the National Championship game last season and CSU finished with a losing overall record, yet the Rams gave the Aztecs all they could handle here in Fort Collins before losing in OT. CSU is a MUCH better team this season (top 50 team this year / last year outside the top 100) and San Diego State isn’t on the same level as last year’s team. This line opened pick-em and we’re confident that the Rams will get a home win on Tuesday. |
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01-30-24 | Raptors v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -5.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a rematch of a game recently played in Toronto where the Bulls won 116-110 as a 2-point Dog. The natural swing of the line in this situation should have the Bulls favored by at least 6-points in this game. Chicago is quietly playing very well right now and have won 10 of their last fourteen at home. On the season the Bulls don’t have great overall statistics but when you look at a smaller subset like the last five games, they’ve been solid and three of those games were on the road. In the last five games the Bulls rank 15th in offensive efficiency and 9th in DEFF with an average point differential of +1.2PPG. Toronto has lost five straight games and 9 of their last ten overall. We used the Raptors in their last game at Atlanta as a 6.5-point Dog and felt they could win that game outright, but they came up 2-points short. In the last meeting between these two teams the Raptors had their full complement of starters with Quickley and Barrett healthy, but both will miss this contest. Toronto has some awful road statistics with a 6-16 SU record and an average +/- of minus -4.4PPG. They rank 23rd in defensive road efficiency and 13th in away offensive efficiency. The value is on the Bulls here minus the points, lay it! |
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01-30-24 | Iowa v. Indiana +1.5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - IU is in desperate need of win coming off 3 straight losses. However, they just played the 3 best team in the Big 10 in consecutive games (Purdue, @ Wisconsin, @ Illinois) so the losses were not unexpected. The Hoosiers showed some fight in their most recent game @ Illinois on Saturday losing by 8 but it was much closer than that. In fact, 8 points was the largest lead of the game for Illinois and with under 1:00 minute remaining Indiana was down 2 and at the FT line. The Hoosiers didn’t make a single 3 point shot in the game (0 for 9) and were outscored by 5 points from the charity stripe. So between the FT’s and 3 pointers, IU was outscored by 26 points yet still had a shot to win the game in the final minute. We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit over 48% of their shots including 36% of their triples. IU is 9-2 at home with their only losses coming vs 2 high level opponents, Kansas & Purdue. The Hawkeyes are playing their 2nd of back to back road games after beating Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Iowa needed a near perfect offensive performance to beat the Wolverines who are reeling to say the least right now losing 8 of their last 9 games, including 4 of those losses at home. Prior to Saturday Iowa was just 1-4 SU on the road but they caught fire in Michigan hitting 53% overall, 50% from beyond the arc, and they were 18 for 18 from the FT line. Now they face a solid Indiana defense who ranks 2nd in the Big 10 (conference play) in eFG% allowed and 1st in 3 point FG% allowed. The Hoosiers may also get forward Ware (14 PPG) back in the line up tonight after missing 2 games. Our power numbers have Indiana as a favorite here and this line opened pick-em. We like Indiana to win this one at home. |
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01-29-24 | Wolves +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Wolves here as the Thunder are off a game yesterday in Detroit and also playing their 3rd game in four days. They have been on the road in 7 of their last eight games overall. Fatigue will be a factor for the Thunder as they are also playing their 5th game in a seven-day span. Minnesota suffered an upset loss in San Antonio on Saturday night and should be primed for this rematch with the Thunder. Oklahoma City recently beat the T’Wolves in Minnesota on Jan 20th 102-97 as a 3-point Dog. They also beat this Timberwolves team by 23-points earlier this season in December. Prior to that, the Wolves had won 3 straight and 7 of the previous eight meetings. Oklahoma City is a tough place to play and they have a 17-5 SU record on their home court but the Wolves are 15-10 SU away. Both have winning SU records this season when coming off a loss, but the Wolves numbers are a little better at 11-2 SU with an average +/- of plus +12.4PPG. The schedule advantage cannot be overlooked and we will side with the Timberwolves in this one. |
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01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico -8 | Top | 55-89 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -8 over Nevada, Sunday at 10 PM ET - We were on Nevada earlier this week at home vs Colorado State in a game they had to win coming off 3 straight losses. The Wolfpack won by 13 (easy cover) but now they are in a tough spot traveling to the Pit in New Mexico to face a red hot team that doesn’t lose at home. The Lobos are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this year (8-1 ATS) and they’ve won every game but one by at least 9 points. In MWC play their home margin of victory is +16 PPG and that includes easy wins over San Diego State (by 18) and Utah State (by 13), the 2 highest rated teams in the conference besides themselves. Their average margin of victory overall at home this season is +22 PPG and they’ve led by at least 18 points at some point in every home game but 1. Going back further the Lobos have now won 27 of their last 31 home games. This is a dominant home team. Nevada is 1-2 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State who is ranked as the worst team in the league per KenPom (212th overall). The other 2 MWC road games resulted in a double digit loss @ San Diego State and a 5 point loss @ Wyoming who is rated as the 2nd worst team in the league ahead of only Fresno. As if New Mexico needed any more incentive, this is a double revenger after losing twice to the Wolfpack last year. They lost @ Nevada in double OT and they lost by 1 point at home with the Wolfpack making the game winning shot as time expired. Utah State upset Boise on the road yesterday to move to 7-1 so the Lobos need to win here to stay 1 game out of first place and not drop 2 games behind the Aggies, who we mentioned they already beat here by 13. Lay it. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY NFL 10* ON Over 51 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 50.5 in the Green Bay vs San Francisco game that landed on 45 but weather turned out to be a big issue in that game. That won’t be the case on Sunday as we are looking at temps in the 70’s, light winds, and no precipitation in San Francisco on Sunday. Even with the poor conditions last week (was worse than we anticipated) a GB missed 40 yard FG in the 4th quarter kept that one from being tied at 24-24 which would have led to an Over. The Packers were also stopped on downs at the SF 10-yard line in the first half & the Niners missed a FG to end the first half and both of those results took points off the board. SF’s QB Purdy had a very poor game and seemed to struggle throwing the ball in the heavy rain. He was held under 60% completion rate for only the 3rd time this season and the first 2 were vs Cleveland & Baltimore, 2 top 5 pass defenses. Now he’s facing a Detroit defense that ranks 31st vs the pass and we look for Purdy to have big time success in this one. Over their last 5 games alone, the Lions pass defense has allowed Vikings 4th string QB Mullens to pass for 411 & 396 yards, Dak Prescott 345 yards, Matt Stafford 367 yards, and Baker Mayfield 349 yards. We look for the passing game to open up SF’s potent rushing attack making them very tough to defend here. The Niners are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at almost 29 PPG and we look for them to top 30 in this one. Detroit should have plenty of success offensively as well. Green Bay moved the ball very well in poor conditions last week punting only once the entire game. The Packers ran for 136 yards on 4.9 YPC which could be a problem here for the Niners again vs a very good Detroit running game (7th in the NFL). SF’s defensive weakness is stopping the run (26th EPA) and that should open up Detroit’s passing game as well. We have 2 top 5 DVOA offenses going at it here in what we expect will be a “keep up” game with both teams being successful on offense. Historically there have been 15 totals in AFC & NFC Championship games set at 49 or higher and the Over is 10-4-1 in those games. Add another Over to that number on Sunday. |
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01-28-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors +6.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 6 PM - The Atlanta Hawks shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone in the NBA not named the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards or Hornets. This team is lacking effort on the defensive end of the court that is obvious to a casual observer, let alone statisticians. For the season the Hawks rank 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.204-points per possession. They just gave up 73-points to Luka Doncic and 148 to the Mavericks as a team. They have allowed 122, 134 and 148 in their last three games. Part of the problem seems to be several trade rumors involving this team which are impacting their on the court chemistry. Atlanta is 8-13 SU at home with a negative differential of minus -3.4PPG. Toronto made their trade when they shipped Siakam to the Pacers for Bruce Brown who should start for the injured Quickly in this one. The Raptors have lost 4 straight games they came against a hot Bulls team, the Knicks and Clippers. The one bad loss in that stretch was at home to the Grizzlies by 8-points. The Raptors were recently +7.5-points at New York and the Knicks are far superior to this Hawks team. Atlanta was an -8.5-point favorite at home against the 10-36 Spurs and the Raptors rate more than 2.5-points better than San Antonio. These two teams have similar offensive efficiency ratings but the Raptors are much better defensively. Grab the points. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
ASA Top Play NFL 10* on #320 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs, 3 PM ET - So by now you’ve heard everything there is to hear on this game and a majority of it has been Kansas City/Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid as underdogs, or in playoff games etc…They were in a very favorable scheduling situation last week against the Bills who were on a very short week. KC played well averaging 7.7YPP compared to the Bills 4.7YPP. But the Bills dominated the time of possession which means the Chiefs defense played 78 snaps. In comparison, the Ravens defense was on the field for only 46 snaps and will be the fresher of the two units. Speaking of defense, last week the Ravens rushed for 5.5 yards per carry and 229 yards overall against a Texans defense that was top 5 in the league in EPA per rush allowed. Kansas City ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed in the regular season. The Ravens were arguably the best/2nd best team in the league the entire season and rate as one of the greatest all-time teams in terms of DVOA rankings. This comes after facing the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the NFL. Kansas City certainly didn’t look like the dominating Chiefs of the past this season despite playing one of the weakest schedules (21st) in the league. The Ravens are now playing their 4th straight home game heading into the Conference Championship game and teams in that situation are 7-1 SU dating back to 2004. In that same 20-year span, teams playing in the Divisional round or later and playing on the road for the second consecutive week are 13-41 SU. We won’t be swayed by the Chiefs recent two game winning streak as they benefitted from favorable weather and or scheduling in both games. Now the Ravens are the fresher team, at home and only laying 1.5-more points than the Bills were last week. The Ravens had the best overall Margin of Victory this season at +12.6PPG overall and +15.1PPG at home. Yes, betting against Mahome/Reid is a scary proposition but this Ravens team is better overall on both sides of the ball and over 60-minutes it will play out favorably for the home team. |
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01-27-24 | Kings -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -1.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 9 pm ET - The Kings have a clear scheduling advantage here with a day of rest compared to the Mavs coming off a game last night in Atlanta. Luka Doncic had a monster night scoring 73-points but was visibly drained in the 4th quarter. Not only is this the second night of a back to back but also the Mavs 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six. Dallas has not done well on the second night of a back to back with a 7-13 SU record dating back to the start of last season. The Kings were off last night and are coming off a big win in Golden State on Thursday night. The Mavericks haven't been great at home with a 13-11 SU record this season and are 6-8-1 ATS as a home dog since the start of last season. In the games they've been a home underdog since last year they have lost those games by an average of -4.9PPG. Sacramento is 20-12-1 ATS dating back to the start of 2022 as a road favorite with an average +/- in those games of +3.7PPG. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Mavs rather easily on this floor by 16 and we expect another double-digit win here. |
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01-27-24 | Idaho State v. Weber State -11.5 | Top | 74-64 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
#816 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State -11.5 or -12 over Idaho State, Saturday at 9 PM ET - This game has blowout written all over it in our opinion. Weber State is just 3-4 in Big Sky play, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 but they are still the #1 rated team in the league per KenPom. Three of their four conference losses have come by 2, 2, and 3 points. Their only poor performance was @ Montana on Monday where they lost by 15. It was bad spot for Weber with their 3rd game in 5 days and now they’ve had since Monday to rest and get ready and we expect a huge home effort on Saturday where they are 8-1 on the season. The Cats only home loss was vs Eastern Washington, who is currently 6-0 in conference play, by just 2 points in a game Weber State led by 13. EWU hit 54% of their shots in that game and 90% of their FT’s and still won by just 2 points. Weber, who is the Big Sky favorite, is in a must win spot at home and playing one of the worst teams in the league. Idaho State is 7-13 overall and just 2-5 in the league despite playing the 266th strength of schedule. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after losing @ Montana State by 7 earlier this week. That was a deceiving final score as the Bengals trailed by 17 in that game with just over 5:00 minutes remaining in the game. They are just 2-9 SU on the road this year and they have won only 8 of their last 43 road games! 7 of Weber State’s 8 home wins have come by double digits and they are averaging 86 PPG at home this year. They are facing that is rated 293rd which is the 3rd worst team Weber has faced this season and the Bengals only average 65 PPG on the road. Big win for Weber State on Saturday night |
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01-27-24 | Kansas v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 75-79 | Push | 0 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -4 over Kansas, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Kansas continues to live on past laurels and remains vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are 16-3 SU but just 7-11 ATS. This team is simply not on the same level as past Kansas teams. They are 4-2 in Big 12 play but have played the easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (WVU, Okla St, and UCF). They have actually lost to 2 of those teams getting topped by UCF and West Virginia on the road. The Mountaineers are the worst team in the Big 12, they have only 2 wins all season vs top 100 teams and one of those was a 6 point win at home vs Kansas. The Jayhawks have even shown some vulnerability at home struggling to get by TCU by 2 and Cincinnati by 5 on Monday. ISU is also 4-2 but they’ve played the much tougher Big 12 slate (4th SOS in conference play) and their 2 losses were both on the road in very tough venues Oklahoma & BYU. The Cyclones are a perfect 12-0 at Hilton Coliseum, truly one of the toughest places to play in college hoops. That includes a win over #1 Houston (per KenPom). Since the start of last season ISU is 25-3 SU at home including a 15 point win here over Kansas last season who won the Big 12 and was a #1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Last year’s KU team was definitely better than this year’s team and ISU’s team this year is better than they were last season. Iowa State’s defense is very high level ranking 3rd nationally in efficiency and they create turnovers on 27% of opponents possessions (#1 nationally) which is bad news for a KU offense that isn’t great at protecting the ball (132nd). It’s really tough to score on this ISU team allowing 61 PPG (6th nationally) and with the Cyclones averaging 85 PPG at home, you can see why 11 of their 12 wins at home have come by double digits. We project another double digit win here for Iowa State so we’ll lay this small number. |
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01-26-24 | St. Joe's v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 72-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over St Joes, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - This could be tabbed a must win for St Bonnies after losing 4 of their last 5 games including 2 straight on the road entering this contest. They are 2-4 in A10 play but still power rated as the 3rd best team in the conference per KenPom. Their most recent game was a particularly poor performance @ Duquesne and we expect a strong bounce back at home. In that 4 point loss to the Dukes, the Bonnies made only 27% of their shots, just 15% of their 3’s and 67% of their FT’s. Their season averages in those categories are 46%, 37%, and 78% respectively so it was just a poor shooting performance on the road and they still were in it to the end. STB also played that game without starting guard Adams-Woods who averages 14 PPG and leads the team in assists. He was sick on Tuesday and we would expect him back for this game. The Bonnies are catching St Joes coming off 3 straight wins including an upset @ UMass earlier this week. In that game STJ trailed by 13 points midway through the 2nd half and rallied to make a shot at the buzzer for a 1 point win. The Hawks last 2 wins have come by 2 points and 1 point and prior to their 3 game winning streak they had lost 4 of 5. Before their last second win @ UMass they had lost 3 straight road games. STJ relies very heavily in the 3 point shot and they are facing a St Bonnie defense that allows just 31% from deep (44th nationally). The Hawks hit nearly 50% of their 3’s in their 1 point win on Tuesday and we don’t expect them to be anywhere near as successful from deep tonight. Last season St Bonaventure was a 4 point favorite at home vs St Joes and won by 13. They’ve won 9 in a row vs the Hawks and the last time St Joes won @ St Bonnies was back in 2014 (9 straight losses at St Bonaventure). We like the home team in this must win spot. |
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01-26-24 | Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 238.5 | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 238.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - These same two teams just met on Wednesday night with the Bucks winning 126-116 on this same court. The game went Over the Total of 237.5 points. Both teams shot exceptionally well at 51% for the Cavs and 50% for the Bucks. Milwaukee also made 25 of 28 free throws for the game. That game was trending under through 3Q’s until the two teams exploded for 70-points in the 4th quarter. In other words, in a perfect storm these two teams combined for 242 points, and we are betting that doesn’t happen again here. In the 10 previous meetings between these teams, they have topped this Total only two times. The Cavaliers are the 3rd best defensive team in the NBA per efficiency ratings and 16th in OEFF. They are also one of the slower paced teams in the NBA at 98.1 possessions per game. The Bucks prefer to play faster, ranking 4th in pace and are 2nd in offensive efficiency but 19th in DEFF. We expect to see the Bucks defense improve with the new addition of coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks allowed the 4th fewest points per possession a season ago. The Cavs rank in the bottom third of the NBA in 3PT% so they won’t put up points from beyond the arc. The Bucks have the 7th best 3PT% in the NBA but the Cavs defense allows just 35.3% from Deep which is 8th best defensively. With these two teams having just played we expect the familiarity to lead to a lower scoring game. |
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01-25-24 | Kings v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +2 or +2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - This line is off, and the value clearly lies with the Warriors at home as an underdog. Golden State played last night but fatigue isn’t going to be a factor as they had 9-days off prior to that. Both teams' most recent opponent was Atlanta. The Warriors beat the Hawks by 22 last night as a 6-point home chalk. The Kings were favored by 8-points at home over Atlanta and won by 15. The outcomes aren’t what matter it’s the pointspread as Vegas is suggesting the Kings are a 2-point favorite on a neutral court. If we examine the three previous meetings this season, we find the Warriors were +1.5 and +3 at Sacramento and were favored by -7-points at home on November 1st. This is a big rivalry after last season’s playoff series and there is no way the Warriors should be home underdogs. Golden State’s Steph Curry has played extremely well against the Kings with a 50 and 41-point game against them in the last four meetings. If we go back to last season and the playoff series, Curry has averaged 33PPG vs. the Kings. Another recent schedule comparison is a Warriors home game against the Nuggets where they were a 4-point dog. Sacramento was also +4.5 points at Phoenix within the past 10-days. Golden State is 8-2 ATS as a home dog dating back to the start of last season. Grab the points as the wrong team is favored in this one. |
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01-25-24 | New Mexico State v. Sam Houston State -4.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#808 ASA TOP PLAY ON Sam Houston State -4.5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - After winning their first 3 games in CUSA play, Sam Houston State lost @ Liberty last weekend. They are 3-1 in league playing having faced the 2nd most difficult conference schedule thus far. The Bearkats have already faced CUSA’s 3 highest rated teams per KenPom and beat 2 of those teams, Western Kentucky & La Tech, at home. NMSU is also 3-1 but they’ve faced the league’s easiest conference slate thus far already facing the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference (besides themselves). The Aggies have also played only 1 road game in conference play which was a 10 point loss @ FIU, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league. Speaking of road games, New Mexico State is 0-7 SU this year in true road games losing by an average of 18 points per game. In a game with a tight spread, FT’s will most likely be key in this one. Sam Houston should have a huge edge at the stripe here as they get their often (22% of their points are FT’s – 48th most nationally) and New Mexico State fouls as much as any team I the country. The Aggies send teams to the FT line an average of 25 times per game (9th most nationally) and a whopping 27% of their opponents points come from the stripe (3rd most in the country). These 2 teams both came over to Conference USA from the WAC so they are familiar with each other. Last year SHSU was a dog @ NMSU and won by double digits. A year earlier the Bearkats were a home dog vs NMSU and again won by double digits. We really like the way SHSU has played against the top teams in the conference already this year and we expect a win and cover for the host in this game. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 237.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - This number hasn’t been set high enough and the bet to make is on the Over the Total. Indiana just faced a Nuggets team that plays much slower than the 76ers and that O/U number was essentially the same at 237. Philadelphia is 5th in offensive efficiency this season averaging 1.207-points per possession and rank 15th in pace of play. The Indiana Pacers are 2nd in pace of play at 102.6 possession per game and rank 1st in OEFF while scoring on average 124.6PPG. Indiana also allows the 2nd most points per game at 122.9PPG and rank 26th in DEFF. Philadelphia is coming off a 133-123 win over the Spurs who play at the same frenetic pace as the Pacers and are equally as bad defensively. In the two meetings between these two teams this season they have produced 263 and 258 total points. Even without Haliburton for the Pacers we like a higher scoring game here. Bet Over! |
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01-24-24 | Colorado State v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada -2.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Nevada won 15 of their first 16 games this season and now they’ve lost 3 straight so we look for a huge effort at home tonight. Their last 2 losses were both on the road and now they are back home where the Wolfpack are 9-1 this season and 24-2 SU since the start of last season. Nevada was favored by 4 at home vs CSU last year and won by 11 and going back further they’ve won 7 of their last 8 home games vs the Rams. Colorado State is coming off back to back home wins but they weren’t impressive in those games. It took OT for CSU to top a poor Air Force team as a 15.5 point favorite and then on Saturday they trailed UNLV for most of the 2nd half before taking their first lead with 2:30 remaining and pull out a come from behind 3 point win. The Rams are 0-2 on the road in conference play losing @ Utah State and @ Boise State, 2 teams ranked almost identical to this Nevada squad. The Wolfpack defense, which has been very good all season, was atrocious in their most recent game (a loss @ Wyoming) giving up their season high in points and shooting percentage. We expect a huge emphasis and bounce back on that end of the court tonight at home where they are allowing just 61 PPG on 38% opponents shooting. CSU’s overall offensive efficiency numbers are very good, however they’ve dropped off considerably since starting MWC play ranking 6th in the conference in efficiency. This is a huge game for Nevada, one of the favorites to win the MWC, as they are 2-3 in conference play and travel to New Mexico this weekend. |
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01-24-24 | Cavs v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks have moved on from first year head coach Adrian Griffin after starting the season 30-13. The main reason for the firing was the Bucks lack of defense as they dropped from 4th in defensive efficiency from a year ago to 22nd this season. Interim coach Joe Prunty will take over in the short term as it looks like the Bucks will bring in vet Doc Rivers. Coaching won’t have a lot to do with tonight’s game, the players will. Milwaukee was just embarrassed on Jan 17th in Cleveland by 40-points, a 95-135 loss that is still fresh in their minds. Going back to December 29th, the Bucks beat the Cavs on their home court 119-111. In the most recent Cleveland win, the Cavs got a ‘unicorn’ night from George Niang who shot 13 of 14 from the floor in scoring 33-points. We are betting the short-handed Cavs don’t get another performance like that from Niang tonight in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 19-4 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of +7PPG. They have won 3 straight at home against quality competition in the Celtics, Warriors and Kings. Cleveland is playing very well right now with 8 straight wins, but other than the win against the Bucks, they haven’t beaten a team in that stretch of games with a winning percentage better than .524. Three of the Cavs last eight wins have come against the Wizard and Spurs who combined have 15 wins between them on the year. This one will get ugly early! |
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01-24-24 | Coyotes v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
#69/70 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals -120 - Arizona Coyotes at Florida Panthers, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - We like this over even if these goalies do not go but, barring something unforeseen prior to drop of the puck, the expected goalie match-up here is also great news for an over. Sergei Bobrovsky expected to get the call for the Panthers and his last 3 appearances have only lasted about 2 and 1/2 games as he was pulled mid-way in one of the starts. In this 2 and 1/2 game stretch he has allowed 10 goals. He has a GAA in the 4.00 range over his last 6 appearances! The Coyotes, because this is the front end of a back to back and they have Tampa Bay tomorrow, are expected to rest Connor Ingram and go with Karel Vejmelka instead. Vejmelka has not played in over a week and in that one he allowed 4 goals in just 14 minutes! Prior to this he allowed an average of 4 goals over his last 3 games so his form has not been good. The Panthers will take advantage here and are off of a 4-1 victory and that was the 9th time in 12 games that Florida has scored at least 4 goals! The Coyotes enter this one off a 5-2 win and 6 of their last 9 games have totaled 6 or more goals. Arizona has scored 3.4 goals per game in their last 5 games and this one, based on all of the above, is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one! Over is our play here |
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01-24-24 | Davidson v. St. Louis -1.5 | Top | 84-61 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -1.5 over Davidson, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Friday and they lost @ VCU but we’re going back to the well with the Billikens at home on Wednesday night. Despite their loss @ VCU, as we stated in that game’s analysis we still feel STL is undervalued right now with their 8-10 overall record. They are finally healthy after having clusters of injuries this season to 4 of their top 7 scorers who have all missed time this season. They’ve been a full strength for just 3 games now and the 2 prior to losing @ VCU they played very well beating a good St Joes team at home and then took the best team in the A10, Dayton, to the wire on the road losing by just 5 points. Both these teams are 1-4 in conference play but STL has played the tougher slate (2nd SOS in conference play) already playing 3 of the 6 teams in the A10 that rank inside KenPom’s top 100. In their only home game at full strength, the Billikens topped a very good St Joe’s team that is 12-6 and ranks as the 4th best team in the Atlantic 10. Davidson has won only 1 conference game as well but they’ve played 3 of their 5 league games at home and already faced 3 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the A10. The Wildcats are not a good shooting team this year ranking outside the top 200 in both over shooting percentage and 3 point percentage and they’ve been a bit lucky with opponents making only 65% of their FT’s vs Davidson this season. STL is one of the better 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 40 in percentage) and at home they are even better hitting 42% of their triples. With this line set at around a pick-em, we like the Billikens to win this game at home. |
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01-23-24 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 240.5 | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 240.5 Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - The Pacers are returning home after a long 6 game West Coast road trip and one of those games was a date in Denver. The Books posted an Over-Under on that game of 239.5 and the game finished with 226 total points. Granted, Tyrese Haliburton did not play in that game and is expected to be in the lineup tonight but we still like the value with the Under. In that most recent game, the Pacers shot 47% in making 43 of 92 field goal attempts. Denver shot extremely well at 65%, making 46 of 71 from the field. The main statistic here is the number of field goal attempts which was well below league average. Indiana relies heavily on their transition offense or fast break points as they average the 4th most in the league at 17 per game. Denver allows the 9th fewest transition points per game at 13.5ppg. Indiana is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 102.9 possessions per game but in their last five games that average dips to 100.2. The Nuggets prefer a much slower tempo, ranking 29th in the league with an average of 97.5 possessions per game. In each teams last five games they have been above average in terms of defensive efficiency. We don’t see the Pacers having much energy in their first game home after the extended travel and the Nuggets prefer a much slower pace to begin with. We will be this on Under the number. |
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01-23-24 | UAB v. Charlotte -4 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON Charlotte -4 or -4.5 over UAB, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Charlotte is 8-1 at home this season and they are on a nice 5 game winning streak. During that 5 game streak they’ve beaten FAU and North Texas, 2 of the 4 teams rated in the top 75 nationally from the AAC conference. FAU is the top team in the league and currently ranked 26th by KenPom. The 49ers have been waiting for this game after losing at home in double OT to UAB last March. The Blazers were a top 50 team last year with a 29-10 overall record but their ranked 100 spots lower this year after losing 6 of their top 7 players from that team. UAB has won 8 of their last 9, however 6 of those games came at home and only 1 of those wins was vs a top 100 team. That was a 1 point win at home vs Drake. The other top 100 team the faced during that 9 game run was FAU who beat the Blazers by double digits. UAB does have a 3-2 SU road record but their 3 wins have come vs UTSA by 2 points (lowest rated team in the AAC), vs Middle Tenn State by 1 point (ranked outside the top 300), and vs Alabama A&M (one of the 10 lowest rated teams in the country). Charlotte has played a top 90 schedule this season (UAB outside the top 150 in SOS) yet the 49ers still have better shooting percentages on offense & defense. They have a huge edge defensively ranking in the top 65 in eFG% allowed and allowing just 64 PPG on the season (top 20) while UAB ranks outside the top 220 in eFG% allowed and they give up 75 PPG. Charlotte is outscoring their opponents at home by +14 PPG and they’ve won 30 of their last 38 home games. We like the 49ers at home vs the overvalued Blazers on Tuesday night. |
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01-22-24 | Bulls v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The Suns are coming off a high tempo game last night against the Pacers with the starters seeing extended court time. They will gladly play at a much slower pace tonight against the Bulls. Over their last five games the Bulls are 25th in pace of play at 96.1 possessions per game. On the season the Bulls are THE slowest team in the league at 96 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Suns actually play slower, also ranking 28th in pace on the season and 17th in the last five games. Both teams rate right around the league average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.154-points per possession. On the season the Suns rate above average in offensive efficiency, Chicago is well below. In recent action the Bulls are 16th in OEFF, the Suns are 17th. Chicago is missing one of their scorers as Zach LaVine is out tonight with an ankle injury. LaVine is averaging 19.5PPG on the season and shooting over 45%. The Suns have played Under the total in 3 straight games and 4 of their last five. After a stretch of 4 straight Overs the Bulls have now stayed below their posted Total in 2 of their last three. In the other meeting this season these two teams combined for 231 in overtime but had just 219 in regulation. The O/U on that game was 218 so you can see for yourself the added value here. Bet UNDER. |
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01-21-24 | Pacers v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #572 Phoenix Suns -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - Phoenix is starting to jell now that they have a relatively healthy roster and look like the team many expected them to be this season. The Suns have won 4 straight games with an 18-point win at the Lakers, an 11-point win at Portland, a solid home win over the Kings and then a W at New Orleans. Indiana is playing their 6th straight road game and coming off a poor showing in Portland. The Pacers also lost by 8-points in Denver and by 27 in Utah on this road trip. Granted they did not have Haliburton for most of this trip, but he did play in their most recent game in Portland. Indiana has one of the worst road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA as they allow 1.224-points per possession (27th). The Suns season statistics aren’t an accurate indicator for this team as the Big 3 of Beal, Durant and Booker have barely played together. Now that all 3 are on the floor we expect their numbers to improve dramatically including their 3-point percentage which is 37.6% and 9th best in the league. The Pacers are 23rd in the league in defending the 3PT line allowing 37.8%. The Suns were recently a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings, the same line we have here. That same Kings team just hosted the Pacers and were 8-point favorites. That tells us the value is on the Suns in this home game at a bargain price. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 or 45.5 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The anticipated weather forecast has pushed this total lower than it should be in our opinion and we like the value on the Over in this one. The forecast now calls for the snow to stop on Saturday night with no precipitation on Sunday. That should allow plenty of time to get the field in good shape. The temps will be in the mid 20’s with 10MPH winds which isn’t bad at all. Both of these teams are used to playing in poor weather. In fact, both played in much worse conditions last week and KC put up 26 points and Buffalo scored 31 points. These 2 met in early December and the final score was Buffalo 20, KC 17 staying under the posted total which was 49. In that game both teams left points off the scoreboard with 2 turnovers in opposing teams territory and a TD called back late by KC because of a penalty. This total has been adjusted too low. Mahomes & Allen have faced off 6 times and the total in 5 of those games was set in the 50’s and the other meeting was 49. Now we’re talking mid 40’s for this total. In their 6 meetings prior to this one, these 2 have averaged 53.6 total points and that includes the 37 point output last month. They’ve met twice in the playoffs in do or die situations and put up 78 and 62 points in those 2 games. We have 2 top 10 offenses facing off (both total offense & YPP) with 2 high level QB’s that are both capable of putting up big numbers. With the weather looking OK as we get closer to game time, we like the Over in this game. |
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01-21-24 | Wichita State +4.5 v. South Florida | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
#837 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +4.5 over South Florida, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Wait a minute? A team that has won 8 of their last 9 games (USF) is at home and facing a team that has lost 6 in a row (Wichita St) and the host is laying only 4.5 points? Looks way too easy to grab USF here and we’re siding with the dogs. Despite their records (Wichita is 8-9 / USF is 10-5) we have these 2 teams power rated dead even on a neutral court. The Shockers have played the MUCH tougher schedule (64th SOS) and 5 of their last 6 games have come vs top 100 opponents. They just gave Florida Atlantic (ranked 25th per KenPom) all they could handle on the road before losing by 9. Wichita led that game by 11 at half and the first lead FAU was able to grab in the 2nd half came with just 6:00 remaining in the game. While the Shockers have been playing high level opponents over the last month, USF has played 1 top 100 team since December 9th and their overall strength of schedule ranks outside the top 300. Their one game vs a top 100 opponent over the last month just happened to be on Thursday night when they pulled the 74-73 upset @ Memphis. It was a game that USF trailed by 20 points in the 2nd half and at that moment they had right around a 1% chance of winning the game according to KenPom metrics. They used a massive amount of physical and emotional energy making that huge comeback on Thursday and we feel a letdown is in order here. Despite Wichita playing a SOS over 200 spots higher than South Florida, the Shockers shoot the ball better on offense (45% to 43%) and allow a lower percentage defensively (42% to 43%). Last year Wichita was +1 in this game @ USF and won by 4. Now they are getting 4.5 points (opening line) and we give them a great shot at winning this one. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 22 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - This is going to be a “keep up” game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and press the other offense to keep up on the scoreboard. GB’s offense is clicking to say the least as they’ve put up at least 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games while averaging 28 PPG over their last 9 contests. That includes putting up over 31 PPG during that stretch vs the 3 defensive teams they faced that ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. That includes last week rolling up 48 points vs a Dallas defense that had allowed 30 points only twice in their previous 12 games. SF’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL putting up 6.6 YPP and they scored at least 30 points in 9 games this year and we’re confident they’ll reach at least that vs this Green Bay defense that gave up over 500 total yards last week vs the Cowboys. The Packer defense ranked outside the top 20 in both YPP and YPG allowed yet played only 4 games the entire season vs teams ranked inside the top 10 in scoring. They allowed 27 PPG in those 4 games and SF is the best of the bunch so we’re confident the Niners get to at least 30 points here. GB has gone Over the total in 7 of their last 8 games and SF has gone Over the total in 5 of their 8 home games this season. The weather will be the one potential deterrent here as it’s been raining in the Bay Area for much of the week and may still be by gametime. The wind, however, doesn’t look bad on Saturday evening in the 10 MPH range. With the spread near -10 in this game the final score is projected to be around 30-20. We have both teams topping those projected numbers and we grab the Over. |