Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-29-21 | Royals v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 -110 on Run Line over Kansas City, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals free fall continued with another loss last night as they blew a 5-1 lead and lost 6-5. With that loss, the Royals have now won just 17 of their last 52 games and they’ve lost 18 of 22 games overall including 6 straight! Kansas City sends Brad Keller to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to resume. Keller is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Keller has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the Royals poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Kansas City relievers have combined for a 5.67 ERA the last 30 days and that ranks 28th out of 30 teams in MLB! Meanwhile the Red Sox will start Nick Pivetta and Boston is 6-2 on the season in his home starts! Pivetta's most recent outing was on the road and the Red Sox were handed a tough 1-0 loss as he was fantastic on the mound with 8 strikeouts and holding the Rays scoreless (and hitless!) for his 6 and 2 / 3 innings! The Red Sox have won 4 straight games and 16 of their last 24 games overall. Also, 35 of their 48 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 11 of Kansas City’s last 15 losses, prior to last night's 6-5 loss, had come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Boston 4th in AL with 3.55 ERA) as well, we’ll back the Boston Red Sox on the run line Tuesday evening. |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home. |
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06-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 -115 on Run Line over Arizona, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The DBacks snapped their free fall with a rare win last night. Even with that victory, they have now won just 7 of their last 50 games and they’ve lost 20 of 22 games overall! Arizona sends Zac Gallen to the mound and we expect his recent road struggles to resume. He is off a solid home outing but gave up 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings in his last road outing. Also, Gallen has averaged only 4 and 2 / 3 innings per start on the season. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 333 hits and 48 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Padres will start Yu Darvish who is 7-2 on the season and San Diego is 12-3 in his starts this season! Darvish has an ERA of just 2.50 in his 15 starts this season! The Padres had won 8 straight games prior to last night's ugly loss and 36 of their 46 wins this season were by at least 2 runs. Also, 17 of Arizona’s last 23 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge (Padres 2nd in MLB with 2.85 ERA) as well, we’ll back the San Diego Padres on the run line Sunday afternoon. |
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06-26-21 | Suns -113 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -110 over LA Clippers Game 4 Saturday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 3 yet the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this line and made them favorites at home. That tells us something and we’ll put our money on the side Vegas doesn’t want us to be on. Phoenix had a horrible shooting night in Game 3 with Chris Paul and Devin Booker combining to go 10 of 40 so expect both to return to more normal averages here. As a team the Suns shot just 39% in the last game after shooting 55% and 50% in the first two games of the series. Phoenix was 18-6 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 4. |
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06-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:15 PM ET - After falling short with this play yesterday we will come right back with it today. The wind will be blowing out toward center at a good clip for this one on a warm summer evening at Fenway Park. With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs. The Yankees Jordan Montgomery did not make it out of the 6th inning in either of his last two road starts and he gave up 8 runs (7 earned) in 11 innings while allowing 17 baserunners (13 hits and 4 walks). Montgomery also allowed 4 earned runs in just 4 and 2 / 3 innings in his most recent start at Fenway Park. The Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi in this one. The right-hander has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts and gave up 9 runs (8 earned) in less than 10 innings in the two starts in which he struggled. Also, Eovaldi has a 7.15 ERA with 4 homers allowed in his last 2 starts against the Yankees. Our computer math model is indicating he will struggle again here so the Yankees should score their fair share of runs. However, the Red Sox have now won all 4 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game. :In other words, the total looks like the value play here and the over is 9-5 in the last 14 games between these teams at Fenway Park. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win. |
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06-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#923/924 ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 or 10.5 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox, 7:05 PM ET - Boston's Martin Perez finally had a decent start but it was against a struggling Royals team and Perez was not even efficient in that start as he threw way too many pitches for balls. Prior to that outing, Perez gave up 11 earned runs in 3 and 1 / 3 innings combined and those two starts were each at home just like this one is. Also, Perez has a 7.92 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Yankees. New York comes into this one swinging hot sticks and will give Perez a lot of trouble. The Yankees have won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 7 victories. Boston should answer the Yankees run for run in this one and they are known for being a stronger hitting team when at home. They will face Domingo German. The Yankees right-hander had some success against them earlier this month but that was at Yankee Stadium and the last time he pitched at Fenway Park he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 and 1 / 3 innings. Also, German enters this start in rough current form with 11 earned runs allowed on 17 hits in 8 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. With both pitchers enduring some recent struggles this one sets up well for plenty of early runs. The Red Sox have won all 3 meetings between these clubs this season and scored an average of 6 runs per game. Both teams had some success against the bullpen arms they faced as well in the earlier meetings and now with the Yankees seeking revenge for the 3-game sweep suffered in the Bronx earlier this month, they will be very focused at the plate and likely to pound Perez. At the same time, German simply can not be trusted based on current form and this is particularly true at Fenway. The last two of the games in the 3 game set went over the total and the over is also 9-4 in the last 13 games between these teams at Fenway Park. That being said, plenty of runs are likely in this one given all of these factors. This total is in the 10 to 10.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting well into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 221 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 104 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 Phoenix Suns @ L.A. Clippers, Game 3 Thursday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which forced the oddsmakers to adjust the Total up from 220 in the opener to 224 in Game 2. Now in Game 3 we are back in the 220 range. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. In Game two we had a much slower tempo than Game 1 as these two teams attempted just 160 total field goal attempts. The Suns shot well again at 50% overall while the Clippers hit 45%. In Game 2 these two clubs combined for less than 51-points in three of the four quarters. As we mentioned in our previous analysis. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and Game 2 finished with 207. We see another defensive struggle with a low scoring affair. |
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06-24-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – These two pitchers have big ERA numbers on the season but that hides how well their more recent outings have been and we have a big number to work with here. Anthony Kay's two most recent home starts have seen him allow a total of just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 8 innings of work! He'll take advantage of facing an Orioles team that got shut out the plate yesterday and that was at home. Now this Baltimore club has taken to the road where they have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of last 12 games! So the Orioles traveled to Buffalo for this game after playing in Baltimore last night and the Blue Jays were in an even tougher travel situation as they came all the way from down south in Miami where they played last night. Certainly there could be some "sleepy bats" at the plate for this one and Toronto will face an improving Dean Kremer in this one. Like Kay, he has a high ERA on the season but has shown improvement in recent outings. Kremer, in fact, had a stint at AAA Norfolk that has seemed to turn him around. He gave up only 3 hits in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in 2 outings there earlier this month. Now, after returning to the Orioles, Kremer has given up only 7 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings and that includes a solid start versus the Blue Jays in his most recent outing. Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 home games and averaged scoring only 3 runs per game in the 5 defeats. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 8 to 9 runs and even if it reaches 10 that is still a winning ticket based on the 10.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
#11/12 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 5 Goals - New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET – The Islanders just got blasted 8-0 on Monday and are a tough defensive-minded team. In other words, that was an uncharacteristic loss for a Barry Trotz led team and the head coach will have his club ready to respond here. We look for a tight game with an emphasis on protecting their own goal in this game as a result. This is Islanders hockey and they will resume that here after the ugly loss Monday. Only 1 of the last 7 games between these teams, prior to Game 5 in this series, had resulted in a game totaling more than 5 goals. That being said, the Monday result could (and should) be considered a statistical anomaly and tonight's game can (and should) be expected to play out much differently. Islanders have averaged only 1.5 goals per game in the last 8 games against the Lightning. Tampa Bay, prior to the 8-0 win Monday, had been held to 2 or less goals in 5 of last 6 games against the Islanders! As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect goals to be tough to come by for both clubs in this one! Take the UNDER here |
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06-23-21 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Oakland A's @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - The Athletics have won 8 of 11 games and have scored 6.6 runs per game in the last 10 games of that stretch with 8 of those 10 going over the total. The Rangers are on a 7-2-1 O/U run with an average of 5 runs scored per game in the last 9 of those games. The pitching match-up is also positive for the over here as Texas has a struggling Mike Foltneywicz slated to get the start. The Rangers right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.59 ERA and things are going from bad to worse as Foltneywicz has a 6.88 ERA over his last 7 starts. Oakland starter James Kaprielian has produced solid numbers overall but has a 4.32 ERA in his road starts this year. If he is going to get touched up it is likely to be on the road and Kaprielian has a 5.65 ERA in his last 3 starts and gave up 2 homers in his most recent road start. The O/U is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings between these teams so there is a history of overs between these divisional foes in recent seasons. The money line on Oakland is moving lower this morning and this is indicating possible sharp money on Texas as who else would be betting a Rangers team that has lost 7 of 8 games? The point is that for Texas to have a shot to win this one they will have to score plenty based on how Foltneywicz has so consistently struggled. That being said, plenty of runs likely in this one given all of these variables. This total is in the 9.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this number up from the 220 it was in the opener. That added value has us on the Under here. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The hype of this game will wear off and expect the young Suns to return to normal here. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and this game is going to stay right around that average or 215 total points. |
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06-22-21 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 on Run Line over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - After a big win at Minnesota way back on May 1st, the Royals sat at 16-9 on the season. Kansas City has since gone 16-29 in 45 games! The Yankees are a huge money line home favorite here as a result of that plus having Gerrit Cole on the mound but we can get some strong line value here by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line with New York. Cole is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA this season. Amazingly, Cole has piled up 117 strikeouts in his first 14 starts this season! He will dominate here as the Royals have averaged only 2.5 runs last 12 losses. A loss is likely here as Brady Singer gets the start for Kansas City and will be no match for Cole. Singer went 2-4 with a 4.32 ERA in night starts last season and is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA and .292 BAA in evening outings this season. Kansas City is 1-5 in Singer's road starts this season and he has a 5.60 ERA in those outings. Singer is dealing with shoulder tightness and may not work deep here and the Royals bullpen has a 4.84 ERA last 30 days to rank among the worst in the majors. New York's bullpen has a 3.06 ERA to rank among the best in the majors. Both the Yankees and Royals were off yesterday and New York enters this game having won 5 of last 6 games and 11 of 17 wins since mid-May were by at least 2 runs. Also, the Royals are off a rare win as KC had lost 12 of 14 before tasting victory on Sunday. 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the New York Yankees on the run line Tuesday evening. |
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06-21-21 | Reds v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
#915/916 ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins, 8:10 PM ET - The Twins JA Happ is having a very rough season and showing no signs of turning it around. At the same time, his teammates should enjoy plenty of success at the plate at home in this one. Minnesota recently welcomed back Byron Buxton to the lineup. Even though Josh Donaldson left yesterday's game, his replacement - Luis Arraez - pounded out 3 hits and is currently on a 7 for 20 run at the plate. Not a power hitter but, as you can see, Arraez is getting the job done of late with his base knocks nonetheless. Nelson Cruz left yesterday's game but, like Donaldson, could be back for this one. His replacement was power hitter Miguel Sano and this Twins lineup managed 14 hits in yesterday's game and that was on the road. Though the Reds Tyler Mahle has good numbers of late, he will have his hands full with a Twins lineup known for being particularly tough at home. Minnesota will need all the runs they can get because Happ continues to get lit up with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and 6 homers allowed over 14 innings. Happ has been hit at a .329 clip in night games this year and has an 8.02 ERA under the lights this season. The over is 7-3-1 in Reds games against left-handed starters this year. Last but not least, these are two of the weaker bullpens in MLB and the Twins have a 4.82 ERA and the Reds have a 5.66 ERA which ranks dead last in MLB. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +159 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+160) over Vegas Golden Knights, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Golden Knights might be starting Robin Lehner in goal tonight. He was the first goalie off the ice at this morning's skate. No matter which goalie Vegas goes with tonight it should be interesting. Lehner would be very rusty as he has not played since Game 1 of the post-season series with Colorado and he allowed 7 goals in that one! If Vegas sticks with Fleury how will his bad error late in Game 3 impact him here? The mentality, overall, of the Golden Knights could be fragile here...they have lost back to back games, there is some confusion about the goalie situation, and they are on the road. The Canadiens are on home ice again, rolling with confidence, and have won 9 of 10 games. Even though Vegas outshot Montreal in Friday's game the Canadiens found a way and they can do so again tonight. Too much value with the big home dog on the money line here per all of the above. Hot team, home ice, big dog line. Bet Montreal Canadiens (+160) |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET Sunday - The numbers suggest this is going to be a tightly contested game between two young teams that are new to this type of a high-pressure situation. The added weight of a Game 7 will lead to a lower scoring game and defensive grinder. The last three games in this series have resulted Unders and 203, 215 and 103 total points being scored. Shooting percentages for both teams have trended down as the series has gone on with the most recent game ending with both teams shooting just 41% from the field. The Hawks have stayed Under in 5 of their last six road games against quality teams such as Philly while Philly on 4-1 Under streak when favored. The Sixers have the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they allow just 1.088-points per possession. Atlanta is 5th in DEFF, giving up just 1.096PPP. The 76ers are averaging 1.137PPP in this series, which is right around their season average, but the Hawks are well below their season average at 1.087PPP. Both teams have played well below their season averages in pace of play in this series and if that continues today, we cash an easy Under. |
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06-20-21 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET – Marco Gonzales struggled with a tough Twins lineup in his most recent start. However, in his 2 prior home starts he allowed only 2 earned runs on just 4 hits in 11 innings while striking out 12 batters! The Rays lineup does not have much experience against him which is a big edge here. Speaking of a lack of hitters' experience, the Mariners have never faced the Rays Shane McClanahan. The rookie southpaw has flashed great stuff this season and pitched much better than his linescore would indicate in his last start. McClanahan faced a White Sox team that is the best in the majors against southpaws and only 4 of the 7 hits left the infield! The lefty is undefeated in his 4 daytime starts this season and struck out 23 hits in 18 and 1 / 3 innings! Look for Gonzales to come up with another strong start at home here. He went 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his home starts last season. Gonzales also went 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in day game starts last season. The Rays have the best bullpen in the American League. The Mariners bullpen has a solid 3.58 ERA in home games this season. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and scored an average of only 3.6 runs per game and our computer math model projects a very strong outing for both Gonzales and McClanahan in this one. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8 that is posted at most books as of late morning Sunday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line over Arizona, Saturday at 10:10 PM ET - The DBacks continue their free fall with another loss last night. They have now won just 5 of their last 43 games and they’ve lost 15 straight games overall! Arizona sends Matt Peacock to the mound and we expect his recent struggles to continue. He is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA this month and has averaged less than 4 innings per start in June. That should give the DBacks poor bullpen plenty of work which isn’t a good thing. The Arizona relievers have allowed 300 hits and 43 homers this season, both near the very top in MLB and those, of course, are categories teams do not want to be leaders in! Meanwhile the Dodgers will start Walker Buehler who is 6-0 on the season and undefeated in his last 23 regular season starts! Buehler has an ERA of just 2.38 in his 13 starts this season! The Dodgers have won all 5 games vs the Diamondbacks this season by a combined score of 22-6. Going back further, the DBacks have won just 10 of last 34 meetings with the Dodgers. LA has won 8 of last 10 games and 7 of the 8 wins were by at least 2 runs. Also, 14 of Arizona’s last 18 losses have come by at least 2 runs and considering the big starting pitching edge and bullpen edge as well, we’ll back the Los Angeles Dodgers on the run line Saturday night. |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -122 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -120 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Historically, home teams in Game 7’s dominate to the tune of 80% win rates and there is no reason to doubt that logic here. Brooklyn enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA this season with a 34-8 SU record despite not having parts of the “Big 3” available most nights. The Nets will be without Kyrie here, but it doesn’t seem to matter as KD is the most dominant player in the league and is nearly unstoppable offensively. The Nets are on a fantastic 15-2 SU run at home and have covered 13 of those games. The Bucks Achilles heel defensively is their 3-point defense which ranks as one of the worst in the league. The Nets have taken advantage at home of where they shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc which is one of the better numbers in the NBA. The Bucks got a HUGE offensive performance from Middleton (38-pts) in their Game 6 win but the rest of the Bucks were a dismal 2 for 25 from beyond the 3-point line. We are betting the Bucks implode late in this game and will revert back to iso-ball which doesn’t work for them. Not too mention poor free throw shooting in a close game. The bet here is on the best player in the NBA and the Nets. |
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06-18-21 | Jazz -125 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz money line -125 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET – Game 6 Friday - There is a reason the Jazz are favored on the road in this possible elimination game. We won’t be deterred by our last game loss with the Jazz and will come right back with a bet on them here. Leonard is out again here so the Clippers will have to find a way to win again without their Superstar. In this series, the two wins by the Clippers at home were anchored by incredible games by Kawhi. Leonard scored 31 & 34 points in both wins and grabbed 19 total rebounds. In the losses he scored just 21 and 23-points. In Game 5 the Clippers got a HUGE game from Paul George who scored 37, grabbed 16 rebounds and handed out 5 assists. When Superstars are out of games the reserves typically step up in the next contest but then regress to the norm after that. Tonight, the Clippers will sorely miss Leonard’s 50% shooting in this series not to mention his defensive presence. Donovan Mitchell had scored 30 or more points in the first four games of this series and 37+ in three of the four before a dude in Game 5 of 21-points. Utah was one of the best team in the NBA all season long on the road with a 21-15 SU record at home in the regular season with a +5.3PPG differential (#1 in NBA). The Jazz are 16-7 SU off a loss this season and they will find a way to win this road game and force a Game 7. |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#41/42 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5 Goals - Montreal Canadiens vs Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 8:00 PM ET – The Golden Knights lost Game 2 on home ice by a 3-2 count. The last 10 times that Vegas has entered a game off a loss they have gone a fantastic 8-2. Of course that is a big part of the reason that the Knights are a sizable money line favorite even though they are on the road in this game. That being said, where we see the value here is with the total. In those 10 games when off a loss, Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals per game. The Golden Knights should indeed score well in this bounce back spot but they will struggle to stop a Canadiens team that has momentum right now and is also excited to be back on their home ice. Montreal has won 8 of 9 games and, not including OT goals, has averaged scoring 3 goals in those 8 victories! The Canadiens looked very strong in Game 2 and had plenty of good quality chances which helped lead the way to the 3 goals they ended up with. Montreal should again enjoy success as they were creating great chances in Game 2 but the difference here in Game 3 will be a much more aggressive approach in the offensive zone from the hungry Golden Knights. That being said, and with this total sitting at 5 goals, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a game in the 6 to 7 goal range here. The Canadiens are on a roll and playing with a lot of confidence as they have won 7 of 8 games. Vegas, in its last 5 games (not including OT goals), has scored an average of 3.8 goals per game! As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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06-18-21 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA play on: OVER 8.5 Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers, 8:05 PM ET - Jose Berrios has been the Twins most consistent starter this season by far and is a fantastic pitcher. However, when he has struggled through the years it has tended to be on the road and his starts at Texas have been no exception. In his last two outings (both on the road) against the Rangers, Berrios has been rocked for 8 earned runs in 8 and 1 / 3 innings. The Twins right-hander allowed 5 homers in those two starts. None of the Rangers last 5 games have resulted in an under and Texas has averaged scoring 5.5 runs in its last four games. The point is that it will not be surprising to see Berrios have some struggles in this match-up. However, the good news for Berrios (and for Twins fans) is that he should get plenty of run support in this one! Minnesota will be able to tee off against a struggling Mike Foltneywicz. The Rangers right-hander has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits in 6 and 1 / 3 innings with 5 home runs surrendered in his last three starts. Also, against the Twins, Foltneywicz has 3 career starts and all resulted in an over and he compiled a 6.32 ERA in those outings. Though some of that is a few years back, in terms of current form this season, Foltneywicz is truly having a rough time. This includes the Texas righty going 1-4 with a 6.88 ERA and .336 BAA in his night starts this season. Look for the over to improve to 7-3 in the Twins last 10 games with a high-scoring one tonight. This total is in the 8.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -123 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Mets -120 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - While it may seem like there is not a pitching edge here there is, in fact, a "hidden" edge to the Mets. The Cubs are starting Kyle Hendricks and he has been strong over his last 6 starts and 4 of those were on the road where he typically struggles. Though he has had overall success in those recent starts, 2 of the 4 road starts were at Pittsburgh and Detroit which of course are two of the weaker teams in the majors. Despite some recent success, Hendricks is still getting hit at a .290 clip in road starts this season, a .287 clip away from home last season, and a .290 clip in 2019 on the road. While Hendricks is quite hittable away from home as you can see given those numbers, Marcus Stroman of the Mets has been fantastic this season. Also, Stroman is pitching for a Mets team that is now 20-6 in home games after yesterday's 6-3 win dropped the Cubs to 14-20 in road games this season. Stroman has a 2.33 ERA this season and that improves to a 1.88 ERA when he is at home. The Mets are 4-1 in his home starts this season and Hendricks, on the other hand, gave up 6 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his last start at New York. The home team is a perfect 6-0 in the 6 meetings between these teams this season. Not only that, the Cubs are overall 3-7 in their last 10 road games. The Mets are 8-2 last 10 games overall and our computer math model reflects a home blowout is likely here. We will grab the home team (and hotter team!) with the "hidden" pitching edge on the mound at a fantastic price on the money line in this one and bet New York Mets -120 |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win. |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians, 7:10 PM ET - This total was 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 and this is still American League baseball and this move seems awfully aggressive. We will take advantage of the line value being offered by the betting markets here. The Orioles Keegin Akin faced the Indians lineup earlier this month. Cleveland's Aaron Civale faced the Baltimore lineup earlier this month. The hitters just saw these pitchers and, though Civale has solid overall numbers, the Orioles got to him for 4 earned runs and hit 3 homers in that match-up. Akin was more successful in his start but he was also fortunate and gave up quite a few hard hit balls. Also, that start was at home for Akin but now he faces the Indians on the road and he has a 1.73 WHIP in his two road outings this season and has been in some jams as a result of too many hits and walks. The Indians, off a 7-2 win yesterday, will make Akin pay for putting too many guys on base in this rematch. There has only been one under in the last four games between these teams and these four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. Cleveland has scored an average of 6 runs per game their last 9 games. Only 2 of the Orioles last 9 games have been unders and Baltimore has averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this stretch. This total is in the 7.5 range but our computer math model shows this one getting close to or possibly even into double digits in runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 4 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 9 runs (5-4 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet Over |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - This number is the second highest the Nets have been as a dog this season at home and even without Kyrie and Harden they are the bet here. KD can obviously carry a team himself and back at home we expect the reserves to step up. Let’s not forget Joe Harris was bordering an All-Star level of play before the Super Star additions and he’s more than capable of filling it up from beyond the Arc. Let’s face it, Brooklyn 33-8 SU at home this season and a majority of those wins came without one of the Big 3 playing. The Nets were 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and they’ll find a way to keep this one close throughout. |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
#11/12 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON Over 5 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET – The Lightning lost Game 1 on home ice by a 2-1 count. The last 4 times that Tampa Bay has entered a game off a loss they have gone a perfect 4-0. Of course that is a big part of the reason that TB is a 2 to 1 money line favorite in this game. That being said, where we see the value here is with the total. The Islanders looked very strong in Game 1 and had plenty of good quality chances to score much more than the 2 goals they ended up with. New York should again enjoy success as they were creating great chances in Game 1 but the difference here in Game 2 will be a much more aggressive approach in the offensive zone from Tampa Bay. We mentioned the 4-0 run above when TB is in this situation (off a loss) and the Lightning have scored an average of 5.25 goals in those 4 victories. In fact they scored at least 4 goals all 4 times. That being said, and with this total sitting at 5 goals, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a game in the 6 to 7 goal range here. 3 of those 4 TB victories when off a loss resulted in an easy over and this one should as well. The Islanders are on a roll and playing with a lot of confidence as they have won 7 of 9 games. New York, in its last 10 games, has scored an average of 3.8 goals per game! As you can see, plenty of reasons to expect good goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
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06-15-21 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – The Pirates have lost 8 straight games and have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game during this losing streak. The Nationals have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under the total. Washington has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game in those 10 match-ups that stayed under the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams at DC have stayed under the total. Looking at the full season ERA numbers for these two pitchers it may seem contrarian to be on the under but this play is about more than just a pair of struggling lineups. Let's talk about those starting pitchers. Tyler Anderson has held opponents to a paltry .220 batting average while striking out 32 in 29 and 2/3 innings spanning his 5 road starts this season. Patrick Corbin has an amazing 0.41 ERA over his last 3 starts against Pittsburgh and has struck out 27 while allowing just 10 hits in 22 innings spanning those 3 starts against the Pirates. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Tuesday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5 over LA Clippers, Game 4 Monday 10 PM ET - Before the playoffs started, we felt the Jazz were the best team in the West and our opinion hasn’t changed even though the Suns look outstanding. Utah had the most wins during the regular season at 52 and are 6-2 SU in the playoffs. Utah had a +9.2PPG differential (1st) overall and the best margin of victory on the road too at +5.3PPG. The Jazz ranked top seven in both road offensive and defensive efficiency. The Clippers are obviously a good team with star power in George and Leonard, but they haven’t been unbeatable at home with three losses in the opening round to Dallas. In Game 3 the Clippers shot well above their season averages at 56% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages of 48% and 41%. Not to mention the Jazz are the 2nd best field goal percentage defense in the NBA. The Clippers have just one cover in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit win while the Jazz are 16-5 SU off a loss, 8-4 on the road. Grab the points and the underdog here. |
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06-14-21 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets, 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are off a low-scoring 2-0 win at home versus the Cardinals last night. The Mets are off a 7-3 home loss to the Padres which went over the total. 9 of New York's 13 games dating to late May have resulted in an over. The Cubs Jake Arrieta has seen his starts lead to a high percentage of unders this season but this has truly been an anomaly and is highly unlikely to continue. Prior to a rare strong start in his last outing, Arrieta had an 8.28 ERA over his 6 preceding starts. On the road this season the veteran right-hander has a 6.40 ERA in 7 starts. David Peterson gets the start for the Mets but it is certainly not based on merit as his days in the rotation could be numbered. Peterson is having a very rough time with a 1-5 record and 6.32 ERA on the season. Things have not been improving for the Mets southpaw either as he has a 9.88 ERA over his last four starts. The Cubs have won 5 straight games and will have plenty of confidence against Peterson as they averaged 6.3 runs in the first 4 games of their hot streak. Last night's Cubs game was a pitchers duel but you can see why this one will be anything but that. Also, Peterson had a rough start at Chicago earlier this season and now faces the Cubs at home where he has allowed 6 earned runs in 7 and 2 / 3 innings his past two starts. Couple that with Arrieta's long-term struggles (his last start notwithstanding) and this should be a highly entertaining game with plenty of fireworks. . This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-13-21 | Angels v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have been the worst team in baseball this season but the over trend in their games continues and this is the perfect spot for another one. Arizona actually has the #1 slugging percentage, .445, in day games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks rank in the top ten in the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and in home games. That being said, there is solid value here in going against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. He has some good numbers this season but those have come at home. He did have one road start and was successful in that one but he got hit harder than you would think just from looking at the box score and Sandoval had to work out of multiple jams in that one. In his only road appearance out of the bullpen this season he got hit hard. Last season Sandoval was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA on the road. In the prior year, his rookie season, he was winless in 5 games (4 starts) on the road and had a 6.52 ERA. The over is a perfect 8-0 in Arizona's last 8 home games. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs in those games. Arizona has allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game in those home contests. With Jon Duplantier getting the start here, those runs against numbers are unlikely to improve! Duplantier is winless with a 10.03 ERA in his 3 starts this season. His only prior MLB experience was in 2019 when he pitched in 15 games and opponents hit .283 against him. He has labored this season and Duplantier has yet to complete 5 innings in a start. Considering the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and a majors-worst .271 BAA, that spells trouble for Arizona in this one. The Diamondbacks are on a 5-32 run but they can hit Sandoval here and that is why the over is the play. Arizona gives up tons of runs but they can score plenty too especially in a day game at home. Also, the Angels hot bats have helped lead the way to an 8-2 run in which Los Angeles has scored an average of 7.4 runs in the 8 victories. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-13-21 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - This is a rematch of a playoff series last year and, in that one, New York was tired in Game One and it showed. The Islanders got blasted in that first game 8 to 2 but they were short on rest and off a grueling 7-game series with Philly. This season's set-up is much different and the Islanders are ready to go from the opening drop of the puck in this one. That being said, a ton of line value here in grabbing the +1.5 goals with the Islanders. New York has played 12 games in this post-season and only 1 of them was a loss by more than 1-goal margin! Tampa Bay has played 11 games in the post-season less than half of those games were Lightning wins by more than a 1-goal margin. The road team won each of the last 3 games between these teams in last year's playoffs. Also, the only loss for the Islanders as the designated road team in that bubble format that was by more than 1 goal was the game one loss which was a very tricky scheduling situation for them. Tough defensive-minded team in the Islanders and Tampa Bay will struggle just to win this game let alone win by any kind of margin. While New York certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a Cup-winning TB team on their home ice. However, if the Islanders do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog NY Islanders is the value play here as we expect a huge game from the road team in this one. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-132 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +4.5 over LA Clippers, Game 3 Saturday 8:25PM ET Yes, we are going to ignore the zig-zag theory here and bet the overall better team in the Jazz. Utah was the best team in the NBA all season long and have flown under the radar because of a late season injury to Donovan Mitchell but they are clearly in top form now. Speaking of Mitchell, the Clippers have no answer for him right now as he’s put up 45 and 37-points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers were built for a Championship, but they are missing a piece or two and the dynamic duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t enough. Utah is 35-6 SU on the road this season and had the best road point differential in the league at +5.3PPG, the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers when away from home. Examining the previous meetings this season we see the Jazz have won and covered 4 of five and the lone loss was by 4-points. Let’s not forget the Clippers lost three home games in the last round to the Mavericks so they are not unbeatable on their home floor. Back the better team and the grab the points. |
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06-12-21 | Astros -106 v. Twins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -110 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Twins are getting plenty of respect here because Jose Berrios is on the mound. That is why, despite the Astros being the much hotter team of late, this game is priced in nearly a pick'em price range. Berrios is coming off a start in which he allowed 4 earned runs. While that start was on the road and you might expect him to now be much better at home, this has simply not been the case for Berrios this season. The Minnesota right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 home starts! On the season, Berrios has an unimpressive 4.71 ERA in his home starts and opponents are hitting .270 against him at Target Field. The Astros counter with Luis Garcia here. The right-hander is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and allowed a total of only 6 earned runs in those 5 starts! Adding to the value in this spot is that Houston's lineup has hitters with some strong experience against Berrios. The Twins, on the other hand, have just one hitter with experience (Simmons 0 for 2) against Garcia. Not only that, the Twins are overall 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Astros are 9-3 last 12 games overall and our computer math model reflects a road rout is likely here. We will grab the road team (and hotter team!) with the "hidden" pitching edge on the mound at a fantastic price on the money line in this one and bet Houston Astros -110 |
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06-11-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
#912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers are a huge money line favorite here with good reason. The Pirates have lost 4 straight games and 7 of 10. On the road this season Pittsburgh is 10-19 and the Bucs have gone just 11-23 against teams with a winning record. Of course this is part of the reason that Milwaukee is such a big favorite here and note too that the Brewers have won 11 of 13 games. The value here is on the run line because of course we are not going to suggest laying the massive money line price here. By laying the 1.5 runs on the Brewers, we get their price range down into the -135 area and 25 of Milwaukee's 35 wins this season have come by 2+ runs. Also, an incredible 32 of the Pirates 38 losses have been by a multiple-run margin. Pittsburgh also is just 7-19 in divisional games. The Pirates start Chase DeJong here and he gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and this was against the Marlins. He is inexperienced at the MLB level. The Brewers start Brandon Woodruff and he is off a rare subpar outing and will bounce back here as he has been phenomenal this season. Woodruff has a 1.42 ERA on the season with a 0.74 WHIP and Milwaukee is 5-1 in his home starts. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +1.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Friday 7:35 PM ET - The home crowd will be rocking in Atlanta tonight when the Hawks look to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta has been fantastic since head coach Nate McMillan took over with a 27-11 SU record and have improved in all areas of their game. The Hawks were 25-11 SU at home during the regular season with the 8th best average margin of victory at home of +6.3PPG. Atlanta has the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 13th best defensive efficiency. The 76ers defensive efficiency numbers have been good at home and on the road where they rank 3rd overall but offensively their road efficiency is 1.106-points per possession which ranks 19th. We don’t expect Seth Curry and Shake Milton having incredible shooting nights by coming to go 9 of 11 from beyond the 3-point line as they did at home in Game 2. The Hawks have covered 6 straight at home against the Sixers and we are betting it’s 7 in a row after tonight. |
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - This total opened up at an 8 yesterday and is now up to a 9 this morning. This is despite the fact that each of these teams have trended under recently. What this tells us of course is that some sharp action is coming in on the over in this one and this game was already on our radar for a potential play Thursday and now it is go time. Chicago's Dallas Keuchel has a 4.81 ERA in home starts this season and the O/U is 4-2 in those outings. He has a respectable ERA last 3 starts but has given up 19 hits in the 15 innings over those 3 starts. Also, Keuchel has given up 4 homers in his last 2 starts and both of those games went over the total. The O/U is 3-0 in Hyun Jin Ryu's last 3 starts. In this battle of southpaws, the Blue Jays left-hander is likely to struggle. The White Sox are one of the top hitting and top slugging teams in the majors when facing lefties. Also, Ryu is off a very rough start against the Astros in which he allowed 6 earned runs in 5 and 2 / 3 innings and only struck out one while walking three. That game was at home and now Ryu is on the road where he has trended with higher ERA's than at home in each of his last 4 seasons and that trend holding true this season as well. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 5.4 runs in 5 most recent road games. The White Sox have averaged scoring 6.7 runs a game this season in games against left-handed starters. This total is in the 9 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Thursday 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks have let their backers down in two different ways in this series by not being able to produce offensively. We are not about to support the Bucks here at home in this game but will try out luck on the Over again. Milwaukee has two straight abysmal shooting nights which clearly isn’t the norm for several reasons. First off, the Bucks were one of the best shooting teams all season long with the 3rd best overall FG percentage in the NBA and 5th best 3-points shooting. Secondly, the Nets have been a below average defensive team all season long ranking 22nd in overall defensive efficiency, 14th in 3-point defense and 7th in overall FG% D. The Bucks are a horrendous 14 of 57 from beyond the Arc in the series but we expect that to change back at home where the Bucks shot 39.8% on the season from the 3-point line. We know the Nets are going to score again as the Bucks don’t seem to have an answer for KD who has scored at will in both games thus far on 24 of 43 shooting and 51-points. Milwaukee was 29th in 3-point percentage defense this season so expect the Nets shooters to continue to get open looks. The Bucks average 120PPG at home this year and will have a much better offensive showing here. Bet OVER. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30 PM ET - The Suns got a solid 17-point win in the opener and were the much better team on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets may have the best player on the floor in MVP Jokic, but the Suns depth and balance is the difference. Phoenix had four players score 20+ points in Game 1 with the team shooting over 54% from the field and 38% from beyond the Arc. Without Jamal Murray the Nuggets lack their best playmaker off the bounce and forces Denver to rely too heavily on Jokic. The longer, more athletic Ayton held Jokic to 22-points in the opener and defensively could be the difference in this series. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five as a favorite and had the 4th best average home point differential in the league this season of +8.9PPG. The Nuggets second best scorer Porter Jr is listed as questionable tonight and not 100% which only magnifies Denver’s lack of scoring here. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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06-09-21 | Bruins -131 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -131 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Money Line (-130) over New York Islanders , Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Bruins suddenly have lost back to back games in this series after taking a 2 to 1 series lead with a road win at New York Thursday which appeared to give them a stranglehold on the series. Now, after back to back losses, Boston finds themselves playing an elimination game but this is a veteran hockey club that will not wilt under pressure. The fact is they have outplayed the Islanders for much of this series and the oddsmakers are well aware of this too as that is why you are seeing the Bruins as a -130 favorite in this one despite having lost 2 straight and despite being on the road. About that home ice edge for the Islanders here, note that the road team has won 3 of the last 4 games in this series. About the 3 to 2 series edge for New York, note that the Bruins have outshot the Islanders by a count of 196 to 143 in this series! The Islanders won Game 5 by a 5-4 count thanks in part to 3 power play goals. However, in the Islanders last 7 games on home ice against the Bruins they are only 2 of 20 (10%) on the power play. The Bruins are 5 of 11 (46%) on the power play in this series and though he was fined for saying it, the fact the Boston head coach criticized the officiating after the Game 5 loss could pay off here. 5 on 5 the Bruins are the better team and we should either see less penalty calls in Game 6 or if there are a fair amount called, don't be surprised if the road team gets at least their fair share in this one. The Bruins are 8-0 this year when entering a game off back to back losses! Bet Boston Bruins (-130) |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10 Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, 7:10 PM ET - We already had our eyes on this one based on the pitching match-up and now a couple of other factors solidified this play. Yesterday's game was 7-1 through 4 innings and stayed that way! As a result the game stayed under the total even though the teams had 8 runs through the first 4 frames. We like coming back with overs a day after a game like that. Another factor we like here is that it will be another very warm day today in Boston so good weather for an over is expected this evening at Fenway Park. Back to the pitching match-up which had us eyeing this game, the Red Sox start Nathan Eovaldi here and he has a 4.47 ERA at home this season which is more than 2 runs higher than what he has produced in road games this season. Now he takes on a surging Astros team that has won 7 of 9 games and has scored an average of 6.2 runs in the last 10 games. Though the Red Sox lost yesterday and managed just 1 run, this was on the heels of a 5-game winning streak in which they produced 5.6 runs per game. Tonight Boston will take advantage of facing a struggling Jake Odorizzi. He only recently came back from an injury and his overall struggles this season have continued. He is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in his five starts. In limited action last season, Odorizzi also was winless and he had a 6.59 ERA in four starts. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -141 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox -140 over Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 8:105 PM ET - The White Sox are slugging .469 versus left-handed pitching this season and that is the best slugging percentage in the majors against lefties. The Blue Jays are starting southpaw Robbie Ray in this one and he has given up 2 homers in each of his last 4 road starts! Ray is 0-4 in 11 games (10 starts) on the road the past two seasons with a 6.27 ERA away from home. He will be no match for Chicago's Carlos Rodon in this one. Rodon has rounded into top form this season. The lefty has been fantastic both home and away but what is particularly amazing is that Rodon has held the opposition to a .124 batting average in his home starts while striking out 34 in 26 and 2 / 3 innings. The White Sox are 23-10 in home games this season and also 23-10 in night games this season plus a fantastic 13-4 versus left-handed starters. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are 5-7 against lefties this season! Toronto also has a losing record in night games this season. The Jays are overall 5-4 last 9 games but went 0-2 in games against lefty starters during this stretch. The White Sox are 7-1 last 8 home games and our computer math model reflects a home blowout is likely here. We will grab the home team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet Chicago White Sox -140 |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s not forget the 76ers were the best team in the East all season long and have a MVP level player in Joel Embiid and a Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. Granted, Embiid isn’t 100% but he wasn’t in Game 1 either and he put up 39-points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Philadelphia is going to bounce back here against a young Atlanta team that will let down after their Game 1 win. Both teams shot extremely well in the opener, but the difference was the Hawks 20 made 3-pointers to the 76ers 10. Those numbers are startling considering both teams are top 10 in 3-point percentage defense and rank 11th and 12th in 3-point shooting offensively. The 76ers are 6th in points allowed per game this season and 4th in overall field goal percentage defense. Philadelphia was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season while the Hawks were 21st. Atlanta does hold a slight edge offensively with the 8th best offense efficiency rating, but Philly is 13th. The Hawks were just +2-point dogs at New York which makes tonight’s line a bargain with a much better Sixers team that is off a loss. These teams met in late April in Philly with the 76ers dominating in a 44-point (no Trae Young) and 22-point (w/Trae Young) home wins. The 76ers had the second-best home point differential in the NBA this season at +8.9PPG and were 29-7 SU on their home court this season. Philly was 14-9-1 ATS off a loss this season at 10-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. In their last eleven home games when coming off a loss the 76ers are 10-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 13PPG. This game has all the makings of a pointspread blowout. |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 235.5 | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets, 7:35 PM ET - The Under came through in Game 1 but the pace of play suggest it should have gone Over despite poor shooting by the Bucks. The results of that game have driven this line down so we will side with the value here and Over. These two teams attempted 200 field goals in Game 1 which is drastically higher than league average this season of 187. Milwaukee had a horrible 3-point shooting night in Game 1 by making just 6 of 30 3-point attempts or 20%. The law of averages suggest that was an aberration as the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.9%. Not only that, the Nets 3-point percentage defense was 14th in the league allowing 36.5%. The Nets lost James Harden in Game 1 but it didn’t seem to matter as KD and Kyrie carried the Nets to a solid win in the opener. These two teams are the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 120.1PPG (Bucks) and 118.6PPG (Nets) and this number suggests Vegas is telling us one of these two teams has to get to 120 to win. The math suggests both teams get to 120+ which means we cash the Over bet. |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - Though Saturday's game got away from them late in the game, the Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up this season including this playoff series too. Boston, prior to Game 4, had continued to dominate shots on goal statistically over the prior 6 meetings between these teams. Rather than lay a -185 price on the money line here, the best value is with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +150 range. Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals! The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high. The Bruins can take a 3-2 lead in this series by defending home ice and getting a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that in convincing fashion. Look for the Bruins to go up 3-2 in this series. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with home favorite Boston is the value play here. |
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06-06-21 | Astros +103 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-3 | Win | 103 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -100 over Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET - The Astros are hitting .281 versus left-handed pitching this season and that is the best batting average in the majors against lefties. The Blue Jays are starting southpaw Steven Matz in this one and Toronto is 1-3 in his home starts this season. Matz has a 1.74 WHIP and a 5.22 ERA in games off a home mound this season. Matz did beat the Astros 4 weeks ago at Houston but was fortunate as he certainly did not dominate. Matz allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 5 innings. He will be no match for the Astros Luis Garcia in this one. Garcia is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 4 starts as he has rounded into top form. Garcia has held the opposition to a .188 batting average in his 16 appearances (10 starts) at the MLB level. The Astros are off a 6-2 loss here yesterday but had won 5 of 6 prior to that and this included a big 13 to 1 win in the first game of this series. The Blue Jays had lost 7 of 9 home games dating back to May 19th before coming up with the big win yesterday. Look for the Astros to bounce right back from yesterday's loss with a big win here. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a great price on the money line in this one and bet Houston -100 |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Over 220.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 1 PM ET - These same two teams met in late April and the oddsmakers set totals of 213 and then 224 in the most recent contest. The Hawks were without Trae Young and Boban Bogdanovic in the first game but Young played in the second, so the number was adjusted up drastically. Obviously, both will be in the lineup here but the 76ers may be without Embiid who is listed as questionable. Even without Embiid the 76ers put up 129 points against Washington in that series closeout game. Atlanta just held the Knicks to under 105 points in every game of their first round series, but the Knicks offense is horrible with the 8th worst offensive efficiency in the NBA. Philly is 13th in OEFF this season and average 113.6PPG while the Hawks put up 113.7PPG on the season. Scoring will come from beyond the 3-point line with both ranking in the top 12 in 3-point percentage shooting. We expect this series to start fast with plenty of scoring from both teams. This number is set slightly lower than an ‘average’ NBA game so bet the value and play Over. |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Under 239.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets, Game 1 Sat 7:35 PM ET - These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA, but we don’t think they’ll get to this number. The Bucks have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers this season and have been outstanding in the playoffs holding the Heat to 103 or less points (in regulation) in all four games. The Bucks defensive efficiency rating of .966-points per possession are beyond outstanding. Yes, that will get tested here by the dynamic Nets, but the Bucks can matchup with Brooklyn much better than other teams can. These two teams met in early May and Vegas set totals of 243 on those two games and James Harden wasn’t in the lineup. With Harden here the number is set 3 or 4 points lower, and more money is coming in on the Over, but the line is dropping. That’s a sure tell the smart money is coming in on the Under which is the way we’ll bet this opening round game. |
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06-05-21 | Bruins -1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over New York Islanders, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Bruins have looked like the better team in this match-up. Boston continues to dominate shots on goal statistically over the last 6 meetings between these teams. Rather than lay a -150 price on the road here on the money line, the best value appears to be with the puck line which can get you a plus money return in the +190 range. Though Boston's most recent win was by just a single goal, 4 of the Bruins 5 most recent wins over the Islanders have been by, not only a multiple-goal margin, a margin of 3 or more goals! The odds of a Bruins win are good here given the money line and you can see why the odds of that win coming by a multi-goal margin are also quite high. The Bruins can put a stranglehold on this series with a win in this one, and per our computer math model, Boston is forecast to do just that here in convincing fashion. Look for the Bruins to go up 3-1 in this series. Laying the 1.5 goals (and getting big plus money in doing so) with road favorite Boston is the huge value play here. |
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06-05-21 | Tigers v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
#916 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - The White Sox got the win yesterday and should do the same here but this time by a multiple-run margin. Detroit has now lost 19 of 29 road games this season including 5 of the last 6. Chicago is 22-9 at home this season and also 13-3 this season against left-handed starters. The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .358 on base percentage and a .478 slugging percentage and the Sox .278 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams. The Tigers are starting Tarik Skubal here. Detroit is 2-7 in his starts this season. Skubal is off of a better outing in his most recent start but that was at home and he has struggled on the road in each of his first two seasons in the majors. Last year Skubal went 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA in his 6 away games - 5 starts. This season Skubal is 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA in his 4 starts away from home thus far. That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well. The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito. He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .202 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons. In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings. Prior to yesterday's high-scoring loss, Detroit had been held to 3 or less runs in 6 of its last 9 games. The White Sox have won 9 of last 12 games and scored an average of 5.8 runs per game in the 9 victories. The average score of those games was 5.8 to 2.9 and this should be another big win as well as Detroit drops to 1-6 last 7 road games. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This has been a strange series with the road team winning all five matchups. The Clippers are facing elimination here and will put forth a monster effort to extend this series. In Game 5 Luke Doncic followed up a horrible outing in Game 4 with a huge game for the Mavericks with 42 points and 14 assists. Despite Luka playing a near flawless game the Clippers still had a chance to win that game late. Odds are he can’t have another game as good as that against one of the better defensive teams in the league (Clippers rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113PPP). Let’s not forget the Mavs were 17th in the league in average point differential at +0.3PPG while the Clippers had the second best road differential at +4.3PPG. L.A. is 8-2 ATS the last ten meetings in Dallas and are 19-9 SU off a loss this season. The Clippers are 10-4 SU (9-5 ATS) when playing on the road and off a loss. Obviously a very big game for both teams but Kawhi and Paul George will lift the Clippers to a win and cover. |
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06-04-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET – The Diamondbacks Matt Peacock has been impressive. His most recent outing was a quality start and this followed a strong start against a tough Dodgers team at Los Angeles. In fact, Peacock has been very strong on the road this season with a 0.79 ERA in 4 games (1 start) away from home this season. The Brewers lost Lorenzo Cain to injury recently and though his numbers had been down this season he had been heating up since mid-May. Another injury situation came up last night with Kolten Wong exiting the game in the 4th inning. Milwaukee did get the big win last night but managed only 7 hits and the injury issues are not helping matters for a team averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home this season. The Diamondbacks did pile up hits yesterday but that is unlikely to be the case again tonight. The Brewers start Freddy Peralta here and he has been fantastic. Peralta is 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA this season while striking out 83 in 56 and 2 / 3 innings while allowing only 28 hits. Also, this will be the first start these pitchers are making against these opponents so there is little to no familiarity for the hitters against these pitchers. The Diamondbacks will struggle against Peralta and the Brewers last 4 games when facing a right-handed starter have seen them total only 18 hits! That is an average of 4.5 hits per game when facing a right-handed starter! Milwaukee, before yesterday, had totaled just 4 runs in the last 3 games against right-handed starters! That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket based on the 8.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Friday. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 227.5 | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers, 8:05 PM ET - This has obviously been an Over series as 4 of the five games have eclipsed the Total and all four of those finished with more than 232 plus points. In the most recent game the Blazers and Nuggets had scored 242 total points in regulation. In the one game that didn’t go Over the number the Nuggets had a horrible shooting night at just 34% overall and 30% from the 3-point line. That was very uncharacteristic of the Nuggets who are the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.5% and 8th best 3-point shooting team at 37.7%. Not to mention the Blazers defense ranks 25th in overall field goal percentage defense. Had the Nuggets had a normal shooting night they score a minimum of 20 more points and Game 4 goes Over the number easily. These same two teams also met the last game of the regular season and scored 248 in that game. This matchup features two of the top 10 offenses in terms of scoring and one of the worst defenses in the NBA (Portland ranks 29th in defensive efficiency rating). The Over is 5-1 the last six meetings and 7-3 Over in the last ten in Portland. If we get and ‘average’ shooting night by both teams this game gets to the 230+ mark again. |
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06-03-21 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 114 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 7:40 PM ET - Amazingly, a month ago on May 2nd, the Diamondbacks were 15-13 so they had a slight winning record on the season. This team has since lost 24 of 29 games! On the year, Arizona is 12-28 in night games, 3-11 versus left-handed starters, 9-21 in road games, and 4-20 in games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers should dominate this one. Arizona is starting Jon Duplantier. The Diamondbacks young lefty has pitched in 16 MLB games (4 starts) and has a 4.79 ERA with opponents hitting .288 against him and he has a 1.60 WHIP. Duplantier will unlikely be able to match the Brewers Brett Anderson. The Diamondbacks have not faced Anderson in 6 years so that is a big edge for him. Also, Arizona is hitting .208 in road games this season which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Anderson went 11-5 with a 3.09 ERA in night games in 2019 and in 2020 he went 4-2 with a 3.60 ERA in evening action. He has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season. The Brewers were off yesterday after losing Tuesday's game. Milwaukee was on an 8-2 run prior to that defeat and should bounce right back here against one of the coldest teams in the majors right now. Per our computer math model a home blowout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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06-02-21 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (+1.5 goals) over Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas was tired in Game One and it showed. They played goalie Robin Lehner after a long layoff and his rust showed. The point is that one should not put too much weight into the 7-1 shellacking that the Golden Knights suffered in Game One. It was a unique situation in more ways than one given the goalie situation and the scheduling situation. The latter was particularly beneficial to the Avalanche as they were well rested and took advantage of that. Marc Andre Fleury has been playing very well and had played the entire series versus Minnesota in the first round and he will be back between the pipes tonight for Vegas. While Colorado is a very strong team and it is tough to play against them the Golden Knights are really undervalued here. They had played a grueling 7-game series entering Game One of this series and it showed. But now they have had a little chance to hit the reset button after getting beat badly in the opener of this series. While Vegas certainly has a shot at the outright upset here, it is still tough to play against a powerful Colorado team on their home ice. However, if the Golden Knights do fall short, we are expecting this to be a very close game likely decided by a 1-goal margin. Grabbing the 1.5 goals (and laying about a -150 price in doing so) with road underdog Vegas is the value play here as we expect a huge response from the road team in this one. |
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06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -117 | Top | 103-89 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on: NY Knicks money line -117 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:35 PM ET - This is similar to a 1980’s series as it’s gotten chippy with both teams playing physical, intense and we like the home team Knicks to come out on top tonight. New York was 10th in the NBA in average home point differential at +4.1PPG, were 15th in offensive efficiency at home and 4th in defensive efficiency. Atlanta was 18th in average road differential at -0.4PPG and 16-20 SU away from home. The Hawks had the 11th best OEFF on the road in the league but were 27th in DEFF. Atlanta is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games and the home team has obviously won 3 of the four meetings thus far in this series. New York is 11-4 SU at home off a loss and they basically just have to win this game at the current number to cover. Trae Young has had his way with the Knicks in the series but expect Knicks coach Thibodeau to have a scheme in place to limit his effectiveness in this contest. A big home crowd in the Garden tonight will help propel the Knicks to a win. |
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06-02-21 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner has a 9.90 ERA his last two starts. The Mets David Peterson is winless with a 5.55 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. The pitching match-up sets up well for plenty of runs here. New York O/U is 4-0 the last 4 games. Arizona O/U is 5-0 the last 5 games. The Mets have averaged 7 runs per game over the last 4 games. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 5 games. Peterson faced the Diamondbacks four weeks ago and allowed 3 earned runs in less than 2 innings on the mound. In 2 of his last 3 starts Bumganer walked 4 in just 4 innings in each start. Overall, Bumgarner has been hit hard in each of the last two starts. The Mets bullpen has a 4.10 ERA on the road this season which ranks them in the middle of the rankings in the majors. In other words, nothing special, and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 5.16 ERA at home this season which ranks their bullpen as one of the worst in the majors. In fact, the .281 BAA for Arizona's bullpen in home games is the worst in the majors. In terms of the lineups here, Arizona is hitting .266 at home this season which is #1 in the National League. The Mets, as noted above, have been heating up at the plate again and have reached 13 hits in 2 of last 3 games. Bet Over |
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06-01-21 | Lakers +5 v. Suns | Top | 85-115 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +5 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - It’s clear LeBron can’t carry a team to a championship by himself anymore which is why he recruited Anthony Davis to come to Los Angeles in the first place but he’s got enough help to keep this critical game 5 close. After a loss in game 1 the Lakers benefited from some favorable calls and went to the free throw line 31 times on the road which is abnormal. All four games have been very low scoring which makes the points even more attractive. Yes, the Lakers are without AD but they’ve gone from being a 2-point road favorite in Game 2 to being a 5-point dog here? That’s too much of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Lakers have been profitable off a loss with a 17-13-1 ATS record this season and a majority of those covers came without key players in the lineup. Los Angeles has covered 4 in a row when off a loss. Phoenix has their own injury concerns and Chris Paul is clearly not 100% with a shoulder injury. The Lakers improve on their 5-2 ATS record in Phoenix with a close game tonight. |
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06-01-21 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-110) over Baltimore Orioles, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - A lot working in our favor with this one. Minnesota has beaten Baltimore 16 straight times! Additionally, the Orioles enter this game on a current 14-game losing streak! The Twins 3-2 win in extra innings yesterday was a rare 1-run loss for Baltimore as 11 of the 13 that preceded it all came by a margin of 2 or more runs. It has been a dreadful run for the Orioles and we look for the Twins to beat them for a 17th straight time in this one. Though Minnesota is down a couple of players for this one, those include the left-handed bats of Arraez and Kepler who do not hit lefties well anyway. They would have been unlikely to excel against left-hander Bruce Zimmerman anyway. That said, the rest of the Twins lineup is likely to pound the southpaw. He has been hit hard in all but one of his last 8 starts. Overall on the season Zimmerman is getting hit at a .300 clip in home games and a .355 clip in night games! He's facing a Twins team that has a slugging percentage ranking in the top ten in the majors against southpaw pitching and, again, neither Arraez or Kepler helped that number. Additionally, the Twins start a red hot Michael Pineda here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the season! To put that in proper perspective, Zimmerman has a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his home starts this season. Also, the Orioles are an ugly 1-7 in Zimmerman's starts this season. That drops to 1-8 after this one as Baltimore's overall struggles (plus losing streak to the Twins) continue here. Per our computer math model a road rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5 Goals – Boston Bruins vs New York Islanders, Monday at 7:30 PM ET – The Islanders have to respond here and we do expect a response after New York got embarrassed in Game One of this series. However, the problem for New York is the Bruins have not outshot them by a combined margin of 78 to 40 in the last two games. There is a dominance the Bruins have been displaying over the Islanders now that they are healthy. That should equate to Boston again scoring well in this one but, again, a response is forthcoming from the Islanders in this one. That is what has led us to play on the over in this game as it sits at just 5 goals based on the long-term reputation of these two teams. The way each is playing right now, this has led to solid value on the over. The Isles can not just sit back or they will get throttled again. That said, they have to push a little bit harder in the offensive zone but, again, at the other end of the ice, the Bruins are just proving to be too much. Boston has averaged 3.6 goals in last 5 games versus the Islanders. New York has averaged above 3 goals per game last 8 games against the Bruins. Take the OVER here |
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05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - There has been an adjustment by the oddsmakers here but we don’t feel it’s enough and we’re betting the 76ers end this series today with a resounding win. After a close game (7-point Philly win) in Game 1 the Sixers have crushed the Wizards in two straight games by 25 and 29-points respectively. Washington had the 3rd highest scoring average (116PPG) in the NBA on the season, but the stifling Philly defense has held them to 95 and 103 points in the previous two games. Washington is just 10 of 57 from beyond the arc in Games 2 & 3. The Wiz have no answer for Joel Embiid who is 31 of 46 from the field in the three games thus far. Washington is the worst overall efficiency team in the playoffs and the Sixers have exposed their lack of depth beyond Westbrook and Beal. Teams that lead a playoff series 3-0 have won 60% of the time and we can’t see a Washington team that didn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (19th in home point differential) this season to make this a contest. Washington just 9-14 SU at home off a loss. Lay it with Philly. |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants, 4:05 PM ET - Total opened up at an 8.5 and has moved to an 8 which is likely due to the Angels recent under trending. That being said, based on this pitching match-up the value is very large here with the over 8 after the line move. The Giants Johnny Cueto has a 6.23 ERA with opponents hitting .382 against him in the month of May. This has encompassed his 4 starts since returning from injury and clearly Cueto is "not right" since coming back. Speaking of "not right", the Angels Dylan Bundy is winless in his 9 starts this season. Also, Bundy is 0-2 with a 15.84 ERA in his last 3 starts so his current form, just like Cueto's, is concerning to say the least. Some line value being offered here because it is the Angels recent under trend that pushed this total down some but their bats should have no trouble getting to a struggling Cueto. At the same time, Bundy is highly unlikely to shut down a red hot Giants lineup. San Francisco is 6-3-1 to the over and has scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the last 10 games. The Angels, despite 4 straight unders, have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of the last 7 games. Getting this game to 4-4 would lead to at least a 5-4 final and a winning ticket for us. Given all of the above we expect both teams to reach that number in this one. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We are betting the Celtics won’t have the offensive explosion in this game that they had in the previous one. After scoring 93 and 108 points in the first two games of this series on 37% and 42% shooting, the Celtics exploded for 125 in Game 3. Boston shot 51% for the game and 41% from beyond the arc which are well above their season averages. Jayson Tatum will have a tough time duplicating his 50-point performance as the Nets will make adjustments here to limit his offensive production. Boston could also be without their second best offensive option with Kemba Walker who is listed as questionable, but we are assuming he plays. After a pair of double-digit wins in the first two games we expect the Nets to rebound off that embarrassing loss with a big win here. The Nets were 15-9 SU off a loss this season and have covered 7 of their last eight games overall. Boston is just 1-6 ATS their last seven games when coming off a win. Back the elite team here off a loss. |
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05-30-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals – Carolina Hurricanes vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 5 PM ET – Alex Nedeljkovic has been solid for the Hurricanes this season but he has allowed 14 goals in his last 4 post-season starts. This was against a Predators team that does not have the firepower this Lightning team does. Tampa Bay enters this game having averaged scoring 4 goals per game last 4 games. The Bolts have scored 3 or more goals in 5 of their 6 post-season games. The Hurricanes have scored 3 or more goals in regulation time of 5 of their 6 post-season games. Of course if each team gets to 3 goals here we are guaranteed of at least a 4-3 game and total of at least 7 goals. That said, with the fact we only need 6 to punch a winning ticket here, we like our chances! Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy was not as strong on the road as at home in the regular season and that trend has continued into the playoffs as well. Vasilevskiy had a 2.63 GAA in road games compared to a 1.75 GAA at home this season. Also, Vasilveskiy has allowed at least 3 goals in 12 of his last 15 road starts including 2 of 3 in this post-season. Carolina has averaged 3.3 goals per game last 3 games against the Lightning and, again, they come into this series hot in the goal-scoring department. The Hurricanes first game of their first playoff series totaled 7 goals. The Bolts first game of their first playoff series totaled 9 goals Our computer math model is indicating this one, similar to those, gets to 7 or more goals and even if it ends up at 6 goals that is still a winning ticket for us. Take the OVER here |
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05-30-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Baltimore Orioles, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - A double-header sweep for the White Sox yesterday and they won both games by a multiple-run margin and should do the same here. Baltimore has now lost 12 straight games. Chicago is 19-9 at home this season and also 12-3 this season against left-handed starters. The White Sox lead the majors when facing southpaws with a .359 on base percentage and a .471 slugging percentage and the Sox .279 batting average against left-handed pitching is 2nd only to the Astros out of all 30 MLB teams. Keegan Akin is a southpaw getting the start here for the Orioles. It his first start of this season but he has a 6.10 ERA this season working out of the bullpen. Last season Akin was used more as a starter and in 5 road appearances (4 starts), Akin went winless with a 7.30 ERA. That said, a road start against a team known for crushing lefties is unlikely to serve him well. The White Sox starter in this one is Lucas Giolito. He is very consistent and has held opponents to a batting average of .205, .184, .211 in the 2019, 2020, 2021 seasons. In the last 162 game regular season (2019), Giolito went 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA and .163 BAA in day game outings. Baltimore is averaging just 2.5 runs per game last 6 games. The White Sox have won 5 of last 6 games and scored an average of 5.6 runs per game in the 5 victories. The average score of those games was 5.6 to 2.0 and this should be another big win as well as Baltimore drops to 0-13 last 13 games. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this one. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-29-21 | Islanders +168 v. Bruins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Money Line (+170) over Boston Bruins, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The regular season series between these two teams was very streaky. The Bruins did win the final 3 match-ups but the Islanders won the first 5 meetings. So which team begins the next streak now that they meet in the post-season? That is the point. There is just too much value being given to the underdog Islanders here. This was a team that proved capable of a strong winning run in meetings with the Bruins this season and yet now they are being priced as if they have no chance in this series. That is simply not right and offers phenomenal value for a potential upset in the first game. Boston could be rusty since they have not played in nearly a full week. Also the road team in Bruins playoff games is 2-2 last 4. The road team in Islanders playoff games went 3-3 in their first round series with the Penguins. The point is that home ice is not enough to warrant nearly 2 to 1 money line odds on the Bruins but yet that is what the markets are forcing with Boston. We'll gladly take a shot with a huge underdog on the other side of the big move. Bet New York Islanders (+170) |
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05-29-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (+110) over San Francisco Giants, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET - The Giants got the better of the Dodgers yesterday but Los Angeles has a huge pitching edge Saturday and will take advantage of that for a blowout win. The Dodgers Julio Urias is 7-1 with a 3.03 ERA this season. He has a 2.20 ERA in his career against the Giants and just handcuffed them on dominating stuff in a 6-inning start at San Francisco last week in which he gave up only 3 hits while striking out 10. The Giants are hitting just .204 this season in games against left-handed starters. The Dodgers are averaging 5.7 runs in games against right-handed starters and face a pitcher today who could be less than 100% healthy. Getting the start for the Giants here is Logan Webb and he missed his last start due to a right shoulder strain. Now Webb faces a Dodgers team that got to him for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings when he made his most recent start against them last season. Also, Webb is coming off a win in his most recent road start but he had been 0-3 on the season in his 4 road starts with a 7.58 ERA before coming up big last time out. His long-term numbers tell the full story and his shoulder may not be 100%. The Dodgers, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 13 of last 16 games and 10 of the 13 victories were by a margin of 2+ runs. This should be another big win as well as LA improves to 5-0 the last 5 times they were at home and coming off a loss. Per our computer math model a rout is quite likely in this immediate revenge situation. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 4 PM ET - With the Blazers at home and off a loss we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 4. When we examine Game 3 we find several anomalies that directly impacted the end result and the Nuggets win. Denver shot 53% from Downtown, making 20 of 38 3-pointers. That’s a stat line you’d typically find for Portland who shot just 31% from beyond the Arc (14 of 45). Denver also made 11 more free throws than Portland who typically attempt 21+ FT’s per game. As we talked about in our last analysis on this series Portland typically gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 1-4 ATS their last five road games against an opponent with a winning record. |
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05-28-21 | Angels v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland A's, 9:40 PM ET - Angels starter Shohei Ohtani will start here after yesterday's planned start for him was scratched by traffic trouble on the way to the stadium. His velocity was down in his most recent start and he was fortunate to only allow 2 earned runs. Ohtani gave up 5 hits and walked 2 and this was in under 5 innings of work. That start was at home and though his prior road outing was a good one, Ohtani gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his road start previous to that one. He is known for having control troubles at times. A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup. Manaea just faced Los Angeles and was successful but now they get to see him again in his very next start. This tends to be an edge for the hitters and he had allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts prior to that most recent start. Also, prior to a strong outing versus LA, he had allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels. Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who had been very hittable of late. The over was 9-2 last 11 Angels games prior to yesterday's staying under in a rare shutout loss for Los Angeles. Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model. Oakland was on an 8-3 run to the over last 11 games before yesterday's under and the A's have consistently scored an average of 5 runs per game in recent weeks. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-28-21 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 211 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 211. NY Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - The number on this game has been adjusted down from the opening game by 3 full points now so we’ll grab the value and bet the Over in Game 3. The first playoff game in Atlanta tonight is going to be electric and we expect the home team Hawks to feed off that energy. After both teams shot well in Game 1 at 45% or better, they fell well below their season averages at 38% for New York and 37% for the Hawks. On the year these same two teams shot 46% or better. Obviously, the Knicks are one of the best overall defensive teams in the NBA, but the Hawks can counter with the 8th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.157-points per possession. The Knicks games averaged 209 total points per game on the road this season while the Hawks home games averaged 225 total points. All three games between these two teams in the regular season went Over the total and averaged 234-points in regulation. We like the trending pace of play and expect a much better shooting night here compared to Game 2. Bet OVER. |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great series and would be even better if Jamaal Murray was healthy for the Nuggets but unfortunately, he is out for the season. With the Blazers returning home we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 3. The difference here is the depth of Portland who can get scoring from several players including Lillard, McCollum, Melo, Nurkic and even Powell. Portland gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Both teams have shot well in each game but when you’re making 3’s over 2’s you’re going to win. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 0-4 ZTS their last four road games against an opponent with a winning record. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this number enough based on the first two games and the value lies with Portland at home. |
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05-27-21 | Cardinals +101 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals +100 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks jumped out to a 4-0 lead against the Giants yesterday and still found a way to blow the game and lose their 10th straight! Arizona lost 5-4 and now will have their hands full with facing a tough pitcher in this spot. Carlos Martinez came back from a short stint out with an injury and looked like he was back in top form. Martinez is a high-caliber pitcher when healthy and he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent start. Martinez has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts! The only troublesome start was the one right before his stint on the DL. In other words, he has been in strong form for quite some time now. The Cardinals, currently the top team in the standings in the Central Division, certainly have the overall team edge here over a Diamondbacks team occupying the basement in the West. Additionally they have the pitching edge with Martinez over the rookie Matt Peacock. The Arizona right-hander has particularly struggled at Chase Field. At home this season, Peacock has a 9.28 ERA in 6 games (1 start). Peacock has allowed 4 homers in less than 11 innings at Chase Field. Martinez has allowed only 1 homer in 24 innings on the road this season. The price here, per our computer math model, could absolutely be much higher than the opening range of -120 as of early Thursday morning. That being said, we'll take the extra value as the line moved to a +100 as of late morning Thursday! This one will be all Cardinals per our computer math model. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a great "no juice" price on the money line in this one and bet ST LOUIS +100 |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 | Top | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off three very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT, then upset Utah in Game 1. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 2-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. The Grizzlies Utah was a remarkable 31-6 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG. Uncharacteristically, the Jazz shot just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 1 which is much lower than their 4th best season average of 39%. Not to mention the Grizzlies 3-point percentage defense is 18th worse in the NBA. Utah is 15-2 SU, 7-1 at home when coming off a loss. Utah was reportedly getting Donovan Mitchell back for the last game but he was a late scratch after warming up. He is expected to play tonight which will give Utah an edge mentally and physically. |
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05-26-21 | Panthers v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 6 Goals – Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning, Wednesday at 8 PM ET – Spencer Knight ended up having a phenomenal game in Game 5 on Monday. The young Panthers netminder has earned another start and remains with a perfect record in his young NHL career as he also earned the victory in his handful of regular season appearances as a rookie this season. Look for the Lightning veteran netminder, Andrei Vasilevskiy, to match him save for save in this one. It is another potential elimination game for the Panthers and they have proven already they will not go away without a fight in this series. But Vasilevskiy went 19-3 in his starts on home ice this season. Things will tighten up here given the setting and what is at stake and this game should feature plenty of defensive intensity and a low-scoring result. Hard to fade Knight now given he proved himself in a playoff game setting and hard to fade Vasilevskiy on home ice where he has often been strong this season. This total is at an even 6 goals and a tight 2-1 or 3-2 type game seems likely here. That said, value with the under in this one and our computer math model reflects the value here as well. Take the UNDER here |
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05-26-21 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – Chris Paddack is rounding back into form for the Padres and has a 1.38 ERA this month and averaging nearly a strikeout per inning in May. The first two games of this series snuck over the total. Monday's game was 5-0 going to the top of the 9th but miraculously went over the total when San Diego scored 3 in the top of the 9th. Yesterday's game also got over the total, just barely, but this was despite the teams combining for only 7 hits in the game! It was another strange result where a game went over the total that should not have. That has been the story in each of the first two games of this series and we see that coming to an end here. The Brewers have had one big game at the plate in their last 6 home games but, in the other 5 games as a host Milwaukee has scored an average of only 2 runs per game. After getting just 2 hits in yesterday's game, the Brewers will struggle again here versus a tough Padres starting pitcher. Speaking of tough pitchers, Eric Lauer is projected to come up strong here against his former team. Lauer is coming off a dominating start at the AAA level where he struck out 12 in 5 scoreless innings! This season he has a 2.87 ERA with the Brewers and wants to make the most of this outing against the team that he started his career with. San Diego has a .364 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that is one of the worst marks in the majors as the Padres rank 24th. This will be the Padres first time facing their former teammate. As for Paddack, he has a 1.80 ERA in his two starts against the Brewers in his career. That said, all signs point to an under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to bet an elite team off an embarrassing loss. The Clippers were eliminated early from the playoffs last year and were just upset as a home favorite in Game 1 of this series. If there is any game, they “show up” for it’s this one. The Mavs had a perfect storm in Game 1 with 50% shooting overall and 47% from beyond the arc. Dallas shoots just 46% on the season and 36.5% from the 3-point line. Not only that, but the Clippers defense was also 13th best shooting defense in the NBA, 6th in 3-point percentage D. The Clippers had a poor shooting night in the opener which is surprising considering they were the 5th best overall shooting team in the NBA and the best 3-point percentage. Especially, considering the Mavs defense wasn’t particularly good defending opponents shooting (13th overall, 18th 3PT%). The Clippers are d18-8 SU off a loss this year and 9-4 SU at home off a beat. Los Angeles was 26-10 SU at home during the regular season and won those games by an average of +8PPG. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS the last thirteen meetings with the Mavs and in this situation they get a resounding home win. |
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05-25-21 | Indians -144 v. Tigers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Indians -145 over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Indians have won 4 of 6 after yesterday's win over the Tigers which was Detroit's 3rd straight loss. Tarik Skubal gets the start for the Tigers here and is winless in 3 starts in his career against Cleveland. That includes two starts earlier this season in which he allowed 8 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings. Aaron Civale gets the start in this one and the Indians are 6-0 in his starts against Detroit in his career. Civale has received the decision in five of those wins and that includes both of them earlier this season over Skubal and the Tigers. Civale has a 2.39 ERA and miniscule 0.80 WHIP against Detroit in his career. Overall this season he has been the much better pitcher with a 6-1 record and a 3.30 ERA. Skubal is 1-6 with a 5.45 ERA this season! Though he is off a better start in his most recent outing, Skubal simply can not be trusted and this is particularly true against a team which has proven to give him trouble. Speaking of giving trouble, the Indians have won 30 of the last 36 games when facing the Tigers and the price here could absolutely be much higher than the current range of -145 as of early Tuesday morning. That being said, we'll take it! This one will be all Indians per our computer math model. We will grab the road team with a strong pitching edge on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet CLEVELAND -145 |
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05-24-21 | Lightning v. Panthers OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals – Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning, Monday at 8 PM ET – The over is 14-5-1 in the last 20 games between these teams so the fact that 3 of 4 games in this series have already gone over the total is not a huge surprise. The Panthers are so desperate for some better goaltending that they had Spencer Knight in the starters crease at the morning skate today. He also got extra work Sunday so it appears that they are going with him as the starter tonight. That is because of the struggles of Chris Driedger and Sergei Bobrovsky so no matter who Florida starts we are comfortable with the over here. Knight is expected to start and he just turned 20 years old last month! He has only appeared in 4 games (3 starts) in his NHL career and this would be his first action in 3 weeks. Though he has a 4-0 record he allowed 7 goals in his last two starts and the Lightning will be ready to attack him early. We understand Florida is desperate for a spark down 3-1 in this series but this is really a reach to throw Knight into the fire like this after 3 weeks off. If Driedger or Bobrovsky are involved both those guys have struggled too. As for the Lightning, Andrei Vasilevskiy will be between the pipes and he is a fantastic goalie but the high-powered Panthers have proven to be a nemesis for him. He allowed just 2 goals in Saturday's win but this was after allowing 4 or more goals in 5 of his last 6 starts against Florida. That is why the last 6 overs between these teams have averaged 9 goals per game! This game could very easily fall into that range as well with a 5-4 final but even a 4-3 game gets the job done too. Look for the Panthers goalie struggles to continue here but the Panthers, trying desperately to stave off elimination, produce another big game against Vasilevskiy. Take the OVER here |
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05-24-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35 PM ET - This series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish and we like the points with Miami here. The Heat were covering for 99% of Game 1 and the Bucks largest spread differential was +1.5PPG, and they did it with their two best offensive players (Butler & Adebayo) having off nights. Butler and Adebayo combined to shoot just 8 of 37 from the field for 26-total points. If we get anywhere near an average game from both, it will lead to an easy cover if not a win outright. The big separator last year when these two teams played was coaching. Heat coach Spoelstra will make adjustment and Bucks coach Budenholzer will not. These two teams are near even when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings, but the Bucks have the season long advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency. In their last ten games though the Heat have the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.218-points per possession. Miami has covered 4 of the last five meetings in Milwaukee and they’ll keep this game close throughout again. Grab the points. |
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05-24-21 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 7:40 PM ET – The Brewers have struggled against lefties this season and are hitting only .224 against southpaws. Milwaukee is just 2-6 against left-handed starters this season and has averaged only 2.5 runs per game in those 8 games. Facing Blake Snell is unlikely to help matters for Milwaukee. Since he pitched in the AL for the Rays for many seasons, Snell has an edge here in that the Brewers hitters have very little experience against him in their lineup. Snell has had great stuff all season again this year but had struggled with command earlier in the campaign. He seems to be turning the corner now and his dominating stuff has led to 18 strikeouts in 10 innings in his last two starts. Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is winless in his last 4 starts but gets a league low run support from his teammates! So he has pitched very well but generally gets very little support from his teammates at the plate and, as you can see, that is likely to continue here as Snell could dominate. The good news for the Brewers is Woodruff has been incredible on the mound this season with a 1.58 ERA and opponents hitting just .145 against him in his 9 starts this season! The Padres have been hot at the plate but the under is a perfect 3-0 in Woodruff's 3 career starts against San Diego and he has allowed only 1 earned run in last 8 innings against them. That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 4 to 5 runs and even if it reaches 6 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a very well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -8.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:35 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off two very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. Utah was a remarkable 31-5 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG and a fully healthy Jazz team get a double-digit win here. |
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05-23-21 | Oilers -121 v. Jets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers Money Line (-125) over Winnipeg Jets, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - Bad news for the Jets here as they are on home ice. All kidding aside, the road team has been dominant in recent match-ups between these teams. Winnipeg took both games at Edmonton and, dating back to the regular season, it is a 5-0 run for the road team by a combined score of 17 to 3. Not only that, the Oilers have not lost 4 straight games all season long. Having lost their regular season finale and the first two games of this series, Edmonton is now dealing with just its 2nd three game winning streak of the year. In the regular season, when entering a game off consecutive losses, the Oilers went 4-1. Edmonton has not played poorly in this series but just simply lost a pair of tight games. One was in OT and the other was a tie game entering the 3rd period that then included a couple of empty-net goals so was much closer than the final score would indicate. That being said, the Oilers are going to come out very strong in Game 3 to get back into this series. The Jets do have a goalie edge with Hellebuyck in the crease but Edmonton's goaltending has actually held up very well so far in this series. So now if the high-end scoring talent the Oilers have can step up with a big game, Edmonton will get its just rewards. We expect the Oilers to bring their best effort of the series tonight and make it 6-0 last 6 for the road team. Earlier in the series the line value was with the Jets on the road as Edmonton was priced too high at home but now they are back on the road, the value is absolutely there with the Oilers as a small road favorite. After dropping the first two games of this series on home ice, look for a huge response from the road team in Game 3. Bet Edmonton Oilers -125 |
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05-23-21 | A's v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland A's, 4:07 PM ET - The Angels Dylan Bundy is 0-5 with a 6.02 ERA on the season. He also is dealing with a foot issue. Despite the foot problem, it was announced on Friday that Bundy was cleared for this start and that is good news for the Oakland lineup! Bundy has given up 13 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings over his last two starts. He is simply not in good form right now and the Athletics have scored an average of 5.3 runs last 8 games. Yesterday's game was a 6-2 win for Oakland which barely stayed under the total. That ended a perfect 6-0 run to the over in Athletics games but that high-scoring trend likely to quickly resume here. A's starter Sean Manaea is also likely to give up plenty here to a potent Angels lineup. Manaea has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits in only 8 innings over his last two starts. He also allowed 8 earned runs in 7 and 1 / 3 innings combined in his two most recent starts versus the Angels. Even without Mike Trout (currently out with an injury), the Angels have plenty of big sticks in the lineup that can do damage against a struggling Manaea who has been very hittable of late. The over was 6-1 last 7 Angels games prior to yesterday's barely staying under. Today's game very likely to make up for that shortfall yesterday with an exciting game reaching double digits in runs scored per our computer math model. We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-22-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +106 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Money Line (+105) over Vegas Golden Knights, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Wild won 21 of 28 home games in the regular season. Before losing Game 2 of this series at Vegas, Minnesota's win in Game 1 made it 6 out of 7 victories for the Wild in 7 most recent meetings with the Golden Knights. Is Minnesota better than Vegas? Not on paper no but, prior to getting blasted on Thursday (exceptions happen), the point is that it has already been proven that the Wild do match up very well with the Golden Knights and now they are at home and off an ugly loss! One home ice loss does not change everything for Minnesota and this is a very confident team on home ice and one of their biggest concerns, goaltending, is actually holding up well so far in this series. You can't even pin the Game 3 loss on goalie Cam Talbot. The Wild simply were horrible in front of him and subconsciously let up after a 2-0 first period as they got hung out to dry the rest of the way. Vegas has still been without Max Pacioretty and he is a key part of their offense. If he returned tonight it would be a surprise and also it would be unlikely that he would right away be his usual self too. Pacioretty has missed quite a lot of time and there will be rust and this is now post-season speed and intensity. All factors considered and, per our computer math model, the home team offers tremendous line value in this spot. Prior to meaningless late season games against St Louis when the Wild had wrapped up a post-season spot already, note that the Wild went 5-1-1 in the regular season when off a loss by a margin of 3 goals or more. After getting beat badly in Game 3, look for a huge response from the home side in Game 4. Bet Minnesota Wild +105 |
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05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 231.5 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - We love this situation for an Over bet as the Celtics last game against a high scoring, fast paced Wizards team resulted in an Under, which influenced the bookmakers here. Looking at that Celtics/Wizards game we see those two teams scored 218 total points but they attempted 188 field goal attempts (league average is 176) but shot just 43% and 40% from the field. Washington was a dismal 3 of 21 from the 3-point line or 14%. We make that comparison because the Nets and Wizards are similar in style of play. The Nets are the #1 overall shooting team in the league and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 39.2%. They average 118.6PPG which is 2nd in the league. Boston doesn’t defend the 3-point line well with the 22nd highest percentage allowed from beyond the arc. The Celtics have a top 10 shooting offense from beyond the arc and are 10th in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency. Both teams are 15th or worse in defensive efficiency with the Nets ranking 22nd. These two teams met on April 23rd but both teams were missing key offensive contributors with Walker out for the C’s while the Nets played without KD and Harden. Based on our math model this game is going to result in the 240’s. Bet OVER! |
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05-22-21 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET – The Reds have trended over this season but yesterday's game went over the total in spite of just 15 hits total in the game. Cincinnati has not hit lefties well this season. The Reds are hitting just .214 versus southpaws and this ranks them in the bottom third of the majors. Though the Brewers Brett Anderson is off a tough start he should bounce back strong here. Anderson's last 3 starts against the Reds were last season and all resulted in unders and the lefty gave up only 3 earned runs total in 12 innings over his last two starts versus Cincinnati. The Reds start Sonny Gray here and he loves pitching at home. Since coming to Cincinnati, Gray is 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 25 home starts! Also, in Gray's last two starts versus the Brewers he has a 0.90 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings. The Reds have not faced a left-handed starter in a long-time and that could make this match-up especially tough for them. As for the Brewers bats, they have only had one big game at the plate last 10 games! In the other 9 games the Brewers have averaged scoring only 2.1 runs per game! That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 7 runs and even if it reaches 8 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9 PM ET - There is a lot we can talk about here when it comes to breaking down numbers and statistics but in the end the team with the best player is going to advance and that is the Warriors. Steph Curry has put together a MVP type season (if I had a vote if would go to Jokic) and has lifted this Golden State team to the next level. The Warriors are 15-6 SU their last 21 games and their average differential in those games is +8.7PPG. One concern we have in this game is with the Warriors coming off such a huge emotional game against the Lakers, but Golden State is 11-2 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Clearly home court and having fan support is a factor right now in the NBA play in games as the home teams have won every game. Memphis looked like they were going to bury the Spurs early on the other night, but they’ve made a habit of blowing leads this season and the game finished much closer than it should have. These teams have similar overall efficiency numbers on the season but down the stretch the Warriors have been much better than the Grizzlies. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight games when coming off a win and Golden State’s 6-0 spread run goes to seven after tonight. |
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05-21-21 | Rays -144 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
#967 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -145 over Toronto Blue Jays, Friday at 7:37 PM ET - The Rays have won 7 straight games and are on the road for this one. Tampa Bay has been better on the road than at home this season with a 15-7 record as travelers. This is also a revenge game for Tyler Glasnow. The ace of the Rays staff had his worst start of the season against the Blue Jays and it truly was not even that bad. Glasnow simply got hurt by a pair of homers but only allowed 3 other hits in an outing in which he struck out 10 in 6 innings! On the season Glasnow has held hitters to a .150 batting average and has a 2.35 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 57 and 1 / 3 innings! Anthony Kay starts for the Blue Jays and he has a 7.24 ERA this season and a 5.92 ERA in his 20 games (5 starts) at the MLB level. He is off a better outing, though only 4 innings, but it came against a Phillies team that is mired in a horrible slump. Now Kay, pitching with the added pressure of possibly losing his spot in the rotation, will face a Rays team on a 7-game winning streak thanks in large part to scoring an average of 9 runs per game during this hot streak! Tampa Bay is hitting a fantastic .351 last five games and will stay red hot at the plate here! You will rarely ever get the Rays in a -145 price range with Glasnow on the mound and with this many edges in a match-up. That being said, we'll take it! This one will be all Tampa Bay per our computer math model. We will grab the road team with their ace on the mound at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet TAMPA BAY -145 |
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05-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild -104 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Wild Money Line (-105) over Vegas Golden Knights, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - The Wild won 21 of 28 home games this season. Before losing Game 2 of this series at Vegas, Minnesota's win in Game 1 made it 6 out of 7 victories for the Wild in 7 most recent meetings with the Golden Knights. Is Minnesota better than Vegas? Not on paper no but the point is that it has already been proven that the Wild do match up very well with the Golden Knights and now they are at home too! This is a very confident team on home ice and one of their biggest concerns, goaltending, is actually holding up well so far in this series. Vegas has still been without Max Pacioretty and he is a key part of their offense. If he returned tonight it would be a surprise and also it would be unlikely that he would right away be his usual self too. Pacioretty has missed quite a lot of time and there will be rust and this is now post-season speed and intensity. All factors considered and, per our computer math model, the home team offers tremendous line value in this spot. Bet Minnesota Wild -105 |
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05-20-21 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on OVER 10 Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals, 2:20 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out toward left field or left-center field at about a 15 mph clip on a mild afternoon at Wrigley Field. Day games tend to get crazy with weather like this in Chicago at this time of year and the situation, based on this pitching match-up, is ideal for a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one. The Nationals start Joe Ross. The Washington right-hander has a 5.80 ERA this season and if he finishes the season north of a 5.00 ERA it will be his 4th straight year doing so! Ross just got rocked for 8 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start and this followed a start in which he was in a lot of jams because of 5 walks in 5 innings. Ross skipped the 2020 season and only made 3 starts in 2018. So to see some full season results on him you have to look more at his 2019 and 2017 stats. Well, in 2019 day games he was hit at a .312 clip. In 2017 afternoon games he was hit at a .328 clip! A day game with hitter-friendly weather at Wrigley Field is highly unlikely to help Ross. As for his counterpart, Trevor Williams, plenty of struggles are also expected. The Cubs right-hander has not even totaled 9 innings in his last 3 starts combined and he has been rocked for 10 runs on 15 hits in those short outings! Just like last season, opponents are hitting about .300 against Williams and he has gone a combined 4-10 with a 6.22 ERA since the start of the 2020 season. In 2019 he had a 5.38 ERA. Williams has a 9.00 ERA in 5 day starts this season and had a 10.24 ERA in his 2 afternoon starts last season! Washington is hitting .260 in road games this season and that is #1 in the National League. The Cubs have hit 32 homers at home to rank 4th in the majors in that category. With the wind blowing out, Chicago is very likely to add a few to that total today! We look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - This is clearly the marquee matchup of the start of the playoffs with LeBron/AD facing off against Steph Curry. The difference is the Lakers have many more weapons than Golden State right now and several capable defenders to continually throw at Curry. Between Schroder, Pope and Caruso they can rotate fresh bodies at Curry and keep him in check. If Curry isn’t “cooking” the Warriors have a tough time scoring, especially with Kelly Oubre Jr out of the lineup. The Lakers dealt with the injuries to LBJ and AD but both are back which led to the Lakers winning 5 straight to close the season and that included a pair of quality wins over the Knicks and Suns. The Warriors were red hot to close out the season with 5 straight wins of their own and 8 of their last ten. Five of the Warriors last eight wins though came against teams that didn’t qualify for the postseason. In fact, nine of the Warriors last fifteen wins have come against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Golden State has a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but the Lakers hold the edge in terms of defensive efficiency. The Lakers have a healthy LeBron, Schroder and Anthony Davis along with newly acquired Andre Drummond which makes them a much more diverse team and too much for the Warriors to overcome. Lay the points with the Lakers. |
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05-19-21 | Jets +141 v. Oilers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 141 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+140) over Edmonton Oilers, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Oilers held the upper hand in the regular season series between these teams but playoff hockey is a different animal. Goaltending is critical in the post-season and Connor Hellebuyck is one of the best in the league when he is on his game. The Jets netminder had a rough patch late in the season but then finished very strong and he is plenty of capable of stealing Game One for Winnipeg here. The money move has been big toward Edmonton in this one but the Oilers do not have the goaltending that the Jets do. In fact, Edmonton allowed 3.8 goals per game in the final 5 games of the season. That is not the form, win or lose, that a team wants to have entering the post-season. Hellebuyck, on the other hand, went 3-1 with a 1.26 GAA and a .956 save percentage in the month of May. Though he had some struggles against the Oilers this season, he was great against Edmonton last season so be careful putting too much weight into that. Hellebuyck enters the post-season in top form. Per our computer math model, the road dog offers tremendous line value in this spot. Bet Winnipeg Jets +140 |
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05-19-21 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET – The Braves Charlie Morton has struggled at times this season but this is the perfect match-up for him to get back on track. The Mets lineup has been severely depleted by injuries. New York managed a tight 4-3 win yesterday but neither team hit the ball well. In fact, the under is perfect so far in this series and the Mets are averaging only 3 runs last 5 games. David Peterson starts for the Mets here and is off a very strong outing. He will also take advantage of facing a Braves team that ranks #25 out of 30 MLB teams against left-handed pitching with a poor .215 batting average. Peterson has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 8 hits while striking out 17 over his last 12 and 1 / 3 innings in his past two road starts. With the Braves likely to struggle to score runs and the Mets missing a lot of firepower in their lineup due to major injury issues, runs will be hard to come by in this one. Each of Atlanta's last 4 games against a left-handed starter has resulted in an under. That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-18-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7:45 PM ET – The Cardinals John Gant has a 1.83 ERA this season. The Pirates JT Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA this season. Brubaker has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his 7 starts and actually has allowed 1 earned run or less in the majority of his starts this season! Gant has allowed a total of 2 earned runs over his last 4 starts! The O/U is 5-14-2 in Pittsburgh's road games this season! The Pirates have scored an average of only 2.5 runs per game in the last 14 games! The Cardinals enter this game on a 1-4 run and the losses have had a lot to do with struggling at the plate as St Louis has scored an average of only 2.6 runs in those 5 games. With both bullpens having performed fairly well this season and also coming in after an off day Monday, the relievers are rested and ready for this one as well. In terms of opponents batting average, the Cardinals bullpen ranks #1 in the National League with a .198 BAA and the Pirates pen ranks 10th in the majors with a .217 BAA this season! 5 of Brubaker's 7 starts this season, including all 4 on the road, have resulted in an under. 6 of Gant's 7 starts this season, including all 3 at home, have resulted in an under! That said, all signs point to another under here. Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket. We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one! Bet the UNDER |
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05-18-21 | Islanders +123 v. Penguins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Islanders Money Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Penguins, Tuesday at 7:35 PM ET - The Penguins recent playoff history is not good but this team continues to be popular with the betting markets and this leads to value in fading them. The bad news for Pittsburgh is they played their style of game and yet still lost Game 1. Without a doubt the Islanders did not want a high-scoring 4-3 game but that is the way it went. Yet the Islanders still found a way to win it even though they are more accustomed to winning 2-1 type games. This is really bad news for a Pittsburgh team that now, dating back to the 2018 Eastern Conference semi-finals, has lost 12 of 14 playoff games! The Islanders are a very well-coached team and built well for the playoffs but, because they do not have the big stars like a Crosby or Malkin (whom by the way might be back tonight) they are not as popular in the betting markets. The result is value with a gritty hard-nosed team like the Islanders come playoff time and while everyone will load up on the Penguins here thinking there is no way they will go into an 0-2 hole on home ice, we expect them to lose for the 13th time in their last 15 playoff games! Per our computer math model, the road team has a great shot at an upset win here and that makes them well worth a play in this plus money price range. We cashed a nice +140 dog Sunday and then rolled with a -155 favorite that won Monday and now we pivot back again to an underdog Tuesday looking for another plus money pup to surprise many and get the job done in this one! Bet New York Islanders +120 |
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05-18-21 | Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 117-144 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227.5 Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers, 6:40 PM ET - Our math model and analytics project 220.6 total points being scored in this game or a result slightly less than the league average for points scored in a game this season. On the season an average NBA game resulted in 224.2 total points with teams attempting on average 88.4 field goal attempts. If we look at the raw data, we find both of these teams right around average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The Pacers rank 14th in OEFF, Charlotte is 22nd. Defensively the Pacers are 14th while the Hornets are 18th. Indiana is a top 5 team in terms of pace of play, but the Hornets rank 21st. We also like the value in this number as the three previous meetings this season all had totals set of 222 or less and now, we get a number much higher than that here. Charlotte has been a strong Under bet with a 9-3 Under record their last 12 on the road as a dog and are 26-11 Under their last 37 overall. Indiana is 44-27-1 Over on the year but 20-16 Over at home and those home games averaged slightly more than 228 total points. The defensive intensity for both teams will be elevated here and we don’t see this game getting to 220 or more points. Bet UNDER! |
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05-17-21 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 7:40 PM ET - These lineups just saw these pitchers Wednesday and they pounded them. We expect more of the same here. The White Sox saw Dallas Keuchel get rocked for 6 earned runs in less than 6 innings against the Twins. The Chicago southpaw has walked 4 while striking out just 2 over his last 2 starts. Yes a pitcher can pitch to contact and have success but not getting enough strikeouts can eventually catch up to you and this is particularly true when facing a team with power. The Twins certainly have some sluggers in their lineup and, even with Buxton currently out, these teams combined for 21 runs when Keuchel faced JA Happ last week. Happ, Twins southpaw, has been rocked in each of his last 3 starts against the White Sox with 19 earned runs allowed in 12 and 1 / 3 innings versus Chicago! The White Sox lead the majors in both batting average (.293) and slugging percentage (.480) against left-handed pitching this season! It will be very nice weather in Minneapolis for this one and the Twins have scored 11 runs on 19 hits the past two games as they wrapped up a home series against Oakland yesterday. Minnesota has a .434 slugging percentage versus lefties this season and that ranks 7th out of all 30 MLB teams. As for Keuchel, he historically pitches better at home than on the road. This season is still young and 2020 was a shortened season. Looking at his stats from 2015 to 2019 only one of the 5 seasons saw him pitch as well on the road as at home. In the other 4 seasons his ERA was a run higher in one season and 2 runs higher in the other 3 seasons. In none of the 5 seasons was he better on the road than at home. Keuchel likely to again struggle against the Twins here, especially since this one is at Target Field, but also look for the White Sox potent lineup to continue its dominance of left-hand pitching and pound Happ again! The White Sox have scored at least 8 runs in 4 of the last 6 road games. Chicago also has scored an average of 8.7 runs per game in going 3-0 against Minnesota this season. With the Twins now at home for the series rematch, we look for plenty of runs from both sides in this one! Bet Over |
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05-16-21 | Marlins v. Dodgers -138 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -140 over Miami Marlins, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - This line has dropped considerably from its opener and that has put the Dodgers money line in a very playable range here. The reason for the drop is because Pablo Lopez occasionally comes up with big starts for the Marlins plus the Dodgers are using an opener for this start as it is a bullpen game and also LA's Corey Seager got hurt in yesterday's game. However, lets now address each of these items as, the fact is, all of the above has led to phenomenal line value on Los Angeles at home. Miami's Lopez is known for getting roughed up on the road and has allowed 6 earned runs in 2 of his 4 road starts this season. His road struggles should not come as a surprise. In 2018 Lopez had a 4.84 ERA on the road and he followed this up with a 7.36 ERA on the road in 2019 and a 4.91 ERA away from home last season. All of these stats pale in comparison to his success at home. In other words, fading Lopez on the road is the best way to go and though the Dodgers have a couple injury issues (including Seager) anyone in baseball would take their existing lineup over the current Marlins lineup any day! As for this being a bullpen game with Jimmy Nelson as an opener, note that the Dodgers bullpen is in good shape after they got a fantastic 7 inning start from Trevor Bauer yesterday. Also, the LA bullpen has a 2.72 ERA at home this season! Overall the Dodgers are 12-5 at home this season while the Marlins are 3-9 in day games this season! Also, Miami has lost 6 of 8 games while LA is on a 4-game winning streak. You will rarely ever get the Dodgers at home in a -140 price range with this many edges in a match-up and we'll take it! This one will be all Dodgers per our computer math model. We will grab the home team at a reasonable price on the money line in this one and bet LA DODGERS -140 |