Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-20-23 | UCLA v. Marquette -5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -5.5 over UCLA, Monday at 11:30 PM ET – Game in Hawaii - This is the last game of the Maui Invitational on Monday night. This is rough early season opponent for this inexperienced UCLA team. The Bruins have 1 starter back from last year’s team, lost nearly 90% of the scoring, and return only 18% of their total minutes from a year ago. Their starting backcourt is really raw with sophomore McClendon, who averaged 9 minutes per game last year, and freshman Mack. They’ve be facing off vs one of the top guard duos in the country. Marquette’s Kolek was Big East player of the year last season and Jones is one of the top off guards in the nation. Huge advantage to the Golden Eagles. As a whole, unlike UCLA, Marquette brings back nearly everyone from a team that finished 29-7 last year and won the Big East regular season and post season crown. They return 4 starters and 85% of their minutes. They’ve already faced the much tougher schedule with each of Marquette’s opponents ranking higher in Ken Pom than any of UCLA’s foes. The Eagles also have a played a high level opponent on the road this year as they beat Illinois 71-64 leading nearly the entire way. UCLA has played 3 home games vs teams all ranked 329th or lower. Despite playing 3 terrible opponents, the Bruins only hit 24% of their 3 pointers in those 3 games and their young starting backcourt is just 2 for 9 from deep this season. This veteran Marquette team has been more than comfortable away from home (road or neutral) with a 14-6 SU record (14-5-1 ATS) since the start of last season. We like the Golden Eagles to roll to an easy win on Monday night. |
|||||||
11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Super Bowl rematch here and we’ll side the team that won that game, the Chiefs, at home on Monday night. Both teams are off a bye, however we feel this heavily favors KC and head coach Andy Reid. He’s been lights out off a bye during his coaching career with a 21-3 SU lifetime record. This line says that these 2 teams are dead even on a neutral field which we don’t agree with. We have KC as the better team and DVOA agrees with us as they have the Chiefs rated 3rd in the NFL and Philadelphia 9th. DVOA also rates KC better on offense and defense. They’ve played the more difficult schedule and they have the better numbers. KC is +80 YPG and +0.9 YPP while the Eagles are +50 YPG and +0.2 YPP. The Chiefs also have a better point differential despite having one less win. The Eagles are 4-1 SU on the road however this is their first real test away from home. Their road slate has been one of the easiest in the NFL facing the Jets, Commanders, Patriots, Rams, and Bucs thus far. Despite winning 3 straight games, Philly simply isn’t playing all that well getting outgained by more than 100 yards in 2 of those wins vs Dallas & Washington. QB Hurts has not been 100% (leg injury) and he just lost one of his top targets TE Goedert with an arm injury. KC has won 20 of their last 22 home games and all but one of those wins had come by at least 3 points. We look for Patrick Mahomes to have a big night vs a Philly defense that ranks 28th vs the pass and 29th in opposing QBR. With this sitting under a FG, we like the Chiefs to cover at home. |
|||||||
11-20-23 | Knicks v. Wolves -130 | Top | 100-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #508 Minnesota Timberwolves -2 or -130 money line vs NY Knicks – 8:10 PM ET - If you haven’t noticed, the Timberwolves are playing at an extremely high level and are considered one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota has won 8 of their last nine games and are 9-3 on the season. The Wolves have done it against a very formidable schedule with recent wins against the Nuggets, Celtics, Warriors and Pelicans. The Wolves are 5-0 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +18.2PPG. The Knicks have won 6 of their last seven games but the wins have come against some of the league’s worst teams including the Spurs, Hornets, Wizards. Typically, New York would ‘out-defense’ you here, but the fact of the matter is the Wolves are better defensively owning the #1 efficiency rating in the NBA. When it comes to offense these teams are near even in efficiency ratings, but again, the Knicks have faced an easier schedule. Back the home team here. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings +2.5 or +3 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - The Broncos look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 3 straight. However, they have been outgained in 2 of those 3 wins and in the other “W” they only outgained the Packers by 8 yards. They were underdogs in 2 of those wins and a small 1 point favorite vs Green Bay. Now they are officially overvalued laying nearly a full FG vs a solid Minnesota team that has won 5 straight games and covered 6 of their last 7. This Denver team is flat out bad when laying points with a 4-15-1 ATS run their last 20 in that role. They lost 13 of those 20 games outright. Minnesota has continued to play very well after inserting Dobbs at starting QB. In 2 games with the Vikings Dobbs has thrown for 426 yards on 67% completions with 3 TD’s and no picks. Their rushing attack doesn’t have good numbers for the season but the Vikes have balanced their offense out nicely with 125 and 146 yards rushing the last 2 games. On the other side the defense is vastly improved ranking in the top 10 in YPP allowed giving up a full 1.0 YPP less than last season. The Vikings have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to less than 20 points. Minnesota has the much better overall numbers on the season with a point differential of +24 (Denver is -52), a YPG margin of +35 (Denver is -100), and a YPP margin of +0.6 (Denver is -0.8). We’ll take the better overall team as an underdog in this one. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4 | Top | 128-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4.5 vs Orlando Magic – 5:10 PM ET - These two teams have been big surprises in the Eastern Conference this season and both of their young rosters have played exceptionally well. Orlando comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, Indiana is 7-4 SU. These teams play two entirely different styles of play as the Pacers try to outscore you whereas the Magic focus their energy on the defensive end of the court. Indiana is averaging a league best 1.223-points per possession and score 126.5PPG. Orlando has the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the league and allow 106.6PPG. We are betting the Pacers outscore the Magic here. Indiana is second in pace of play and the young Magic rank 15th meaning they can and will get sucked into playing an uptempo game today. Despite playing fast in high possession games, the Pacers don’t turn the ball over with the 3rd fewest TO’s in the league. Orlando on the other hand averages the 3rd most TO’s on the season at 16.3 per game. Pacer PG Tyrese Haliburton is playing at an All-Star level averaging 24.7PPG, 12.5 APG points per game, and his 12.5 assists per leads the NBA. We are not as impressed with the Magics recent two road wins over a Bulls team that is on the trade market. Indiana on the other hand has won 4 of their last five games including wins over the 76ers and Bucks in that stretch. They also own a pair of wins over a Cavs team this season that plays a similar style to the Magic. Orlando has a negative differential on the road this season of -5PPG, Indiana at home has a +11.3PPG differential which is 5th best in the NBA. Let’s lay the points. |
|||||||
11-19-23 | Titans v. Jaguars -6.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
#460 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Titans rookie QB Will Levis played well in his first start but now teams have game tape on him and can better prepare or scheme for the young QB. He is in a tough situation here with this being his third straight road game and the Titans have not played well away from home. Tennessee is averaging just 12PPG (30th) away from home and 255YPG which is 30th in the NFL. They are 0-5 SU on the road and also have a negative average differential of minus -9.7PPG. Last week the Jags schedule finally caught up with them and they faced a highly motivated 49ers team off a 3 game losing streak. They were blown out by 31-points which should serve as a wake up call this week. Prior to that game the Jags had won 5 straight games with four of those five wins coming by 7 or more points. This is one of those fishy lines with the Jags favored by 7 full points when they were only favored by 4 at home against the Colts and 3 against the Falcons. Tennessee just played at Tampa and was +2.5 and the week before they were +3 at Pittsburgh. This looks like an obvious trap by the oddsmakers as they are baiting you to back the Titans. Let’s not do it! |
|||||||
11-18-23 | San Diego State v. San Jose State -14.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite. |
|||||||
11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset. |
|||||||
11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -120 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State -120 over Washington, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - There is a reason that an undefeated top 5 team is an underdog in this game. They should be. Washington has been primed to get “upset’ for a good month now and we think this is where they go down. Washington is overvalued right now having only covered 1 of their last 6 games. In those 6 games they are -47 points to the spread so losing to the spread by an average of about 8 PPG and of their 10 wins, 6 have come by 10 points or less. The Huskies have also been outgained in 4 of their last 6 games and their defense is in a freefall allowing an average of 455 YPG over their last 5 games. Last week at home the struggled to beat Utah winning by a TD despite running 18 more offensive snaps and getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 6.1 YPP. On Saturday they get an Oregon State team that is simply lights out at home. In fact, since the start of the 2021 season, the Beavers have played 17 home games and covered 16 of those games! This year alone they beat 2 very good Pac 12 teams, UCLA and Utah, by double digits at home. We expect OSU to control the line of scrimmage here with the much better running game (9th nationally averaging 5.4 YPC) vs a Washington team that has been outrushed on a YPC basis in 5 straight games. The Beavers are playing very well right now having won 5 of their last 6 games with their only loss coming @ a red hot Arizona team by 3 points, a game OSU outgained Zona both on the ground and through the air. Despite their 8-2 record compared to Washington’s 10-0 record, the Beavers actually have a better YPG differential at +120 to the Huskies +93 YPG. We think this sets up very nicely for a dominant home team to get a win over an overvalued undefeated team. Take Oregon State. |
|||||||
11-18-23 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
#341/342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 59.5 Points – North Carolina vs Clemson, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UNC’s defense has been brutal over the last month allowing at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games (minus their game vs FCS opponent Campbell. Last week they allowed 47 points (36 in regulation) to a Duke offense that has been flat out bad over the last month averaging just 16 PPG over their previous 5 games. Duke put up those numbers last week with their starting QB Leonard on the bench with an injury. Clemson’s offense has come alive the last 2 weeks with 73 total points and should have plenty of success vs a UNC defense that’s been poor (82nd total defense) to say the least. On the other side of the ball, the Heels have one of the best QB’s in college football in Drake Maye and the rank 8th nationally averaging 40 PPG and 3rd nationally in total offense putting up 520 YPG. Clemson’s defense has allowed 21 points or more in 4 straight games vs offense with an average rank of 54th in the country. The fact is Clemson hasn’t faced an offense as potent as UNC this season. The best offense they’ve faced in FSU (ranked 23rd) and they put up 31 points in Clemson on this team. Both teams are fast paced with UNC ranking 11th in seconds per play and Clemson ranking 39th so we expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game. The implied teams totals in this game based on the total and the 7 point spread in favor of Clemson are the Tigers 33 and the Tar Heels 26. Perfect weather expected in Clemson on Saturday and we expect both teams to top those numbers and we’re on the Over on Saturday in this ACC match up. |
|||||||
11-17-23 | San Diego State v. St. Mary's +1 | Top | 79-54 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
#878 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Mary’s pick-em over San Diego State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - We’re getting a very good St Mary’s team off a loss blowing a 16 point 2nd half lead in a 61-57 loss vs Weber State. It was a rare poor shooting game for STM as they made only 40% of their shots overall and just 18% from beyond the arc. We feel it’s an anomaly that St Mary’s is hitting only 25% of their 3’s this season after making over 36% a year ago. They return 3 starters and 70% of their minutes (most in the West Coast Conference) from a team that was 27-8 last season. Not only that, the Gaels beat San Diego State last year 68-61 last season on a neutral court and that was an Aztec team that went to the National Championship game. We expect a regression this season from a SDSU team that must replace 2 starts and half of their minutes from last year’s team. St Mary’s has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation for years now and they will turn this game into a “crawl” which is not how San Diego State likes to play. Gaels HC Randy Bennett is fantastic at getting his team to bounce back after a loss as they are 13-1 ATS in that spot. At a pick-em type game we feel we’re getting the better overall team in the better situation. Take St Mary’s on Friday Night. |
|||||||
11-17-23 | Kings -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -6.5 at San Antonio Spurs, 7:30 PM ET - The Victor Webanyama hype is starting to die down and it’s becoming very clear just how far the Spurs have to go to be relevant again. San Antonio has lost 6 straight by an average of 19.5PPG, albeit two of those losses were by 36 and 41-points. But that’s also an indicator of just how bad this team can be at times. Sacramento is playing like the team that won 48 regular season games a year ago with 4 straight W’s. The last two victories were impressive with a 15-point win against the Lakers and a 12-point win over the Cavs. The Kings were the #1 most efficient offense in the NBA a year ago and averaged 120.8PPG. They’ve gotten off to a slow start this season but have a great opportunity to get right here against a Spurs defense that is 28th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.197-points per possession. Sacramento has not shot the 3-ball well at 33.9% but the Spurs allow opponents to hit over 40% of their 3-point attempts. San Antonio is also 28th in the league in offensive efficiency scoring just 1.068PPP. This is one of the In Season Tournament games, so it has added incentive for the Kings who trail the Timberwolves by a win in the Western Conference group C. The Spurs are essentially eliminated from contention with a 0-2 record. Sacramento has won 5 of the last six meetings with the Spurs with all of those wins coming by 7 or more points. Lay it here with the Kings. |
|||||||
11-16-23 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 128-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 227 Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors will be without Draymond Green (who doesn’t impact this number significantly) and Steph Curry who clearly has a huge impact on the game/outcome. Curry has carried the Warriors offensively this season averaging 30.7 points per game, on 49% shooting from the field and 45% from beyond the Arc. His absence was obvious in their most recent game against the Wolves when they managed just 101-points and shot just 42% from the field as a team. They also hit just 13 of 39 3-pointers in the game. Another factor is the pace of play and how it changes with the aging Chris Paul on the floor who prefers to play slow. The Warriors are 24th in the league in effective FG% at 52% but have an EF% of 47.4% in their last three games. It won’t be an easy task scoring tonight against a Thunder defense that ranks 7th in overall efficiency ratings allowing just 1.097-points per possession. OKC has held their last three opponents to 105 (Kings), 99 (Suns) and 87 (Spurs) points. This has been a very high scoring series but without Curry on the floor we expect a much lower scoring output in this one. If we go back to 2019 the Warriors are 78-89 (53.3%) Under when coming off a loss. |
|||||||
11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #312 Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15PM ET - Both teams are coming off huge letdown losses as the Bengals suffered a beat at home to the Texans, while the Ravens squandered a 14-point lead to the Browns in the 4th quarter and lost at home by 2. We expect Baltimore to bounce back here at home in this HUGE division game. Both teams have impressive ATS records when coming off a loss going back to 2020 with the Bengals 16-7-1 ATS while the Ravens are 14-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is 8-5 SU their last thirteen home games with an average +/- of +7PPG. Cincinnati hasn’t been the same team this season (5-4 with an ave +/- of minus -1.1PPG) after going 27-13 SU the previous two seasons. The Bengals averaged 353.8 total yards per game last season (11th) but are putting up just 301.7YPG this season which ranks 24th. In fact, the Bengals have been outgained in terms of Yards Per Play in every game this season but one. The Bengals defense has allowed 6.1YPP this season which is 31st in the league, only ahead of the Denver Broncos at 6.4YPP. In comparison, Baltimore’s defense is best in the league in this stat category allowing only 4.2YPP and giving up only 273 total YPG. The Ravens have been especially stingy in the Red Zone allowing just 34.62% (3rd) of opponent’s TD’s to be scored. Baltimore is averaging 5.7YPP on the season and score TD’s on 64.29% of their RZ attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Baltimore outplayed the Bengals in the first meeting this season with +7 more first downs, 415YDS to 282YDS and a +1.0YPP advantage in their 3-point road win. Some may look at the dog in this rivalry, but the numbers tell us the Ravens have been much better on both sides of the football this season. Lay it! |
|||||||
11-16-23 | Wright State +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
#717 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wright State +10 or +9.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IU has been less than impressive to say the least in their 2 wins this season. They won their season opener by 6 points vs Florida Gulf Coast and then beat Army by 8 points on Sunday. They weren’t even close to covering either game losing to the spread by a combined 25 points. Those 2 opponents currently have an 0-5 record vs D1 opponents this season. The closest losses this season for both of those teams were vs Indiana. In those games the Hoosiers had a massive advantage from the foul line (+32 made FT’s in those 2 games combined) and still struggled to win those games. IU was only +3 on the boards in those games and now face a Wright State team that has more size than both those opponents and has been decent on the boards. This Indiana team is not playing well to start the season and Wright State is a very solid mid Major who will give IU all they can handle. The Raiders just faced Toledo (the 2nd best team in the MAC) and lost 78-77. They have the makings of a team that can pull the upset as they shoot the ball very well (43rd nationally in eFG% after finishing 44th last year) and they make their FT’s (76%). The Wright State program is used to success vs the big boys as head coach Nagy has faced 7 major conference teams during the regular season and he’s pulled off outright wins in 3 of those games vs NC State, Louisville, and Georgia Tech. This is a huge opportunity for WSU playing on the big stage vs a Big 10 opponent so they’ll bring it on Thursday. Indiana has bigger fish to fry this weekend facing reigning National Champs UConn at Madison Square Garden. Too many points here as we look for the Raiders to give IU a run for their money. |
|||||||
11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on #513 Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - This is a very favorable scheduling situation for the Kings as they catch the Lakers off a win last night over Memphis. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, it’s also the 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. How much will LeBron even play tonight? The Kings have had their ups and downs but now have DeAaron Fox back from injury and have won 3 straight. The Kings last game/win came on Nov 13th over the Cavaliers 132-120. These two teams have similar efficiency ratings when it comes to defense, but offensively It’s not close as the Kings average 1.127 points per possession compared to the Lakers 1.088PPP. Last season in this scheduling situation the Lakers had one of the worst efficiency differentials in the NBA at minus -10.7 and they won just 40% of those games. The Kings have been especially good on the offensive glass in their last three games, averaging 13 O-boards per game compared to the Lakers 8.7. This means more to the Kings who have always had to look up to the Lakers and it’s shown in recent years with the Kings winning 5 of the last six meetings, including a 5-point win earlier this season. We like Sacramento here over a fatigued Lakers team. |
|||||||
11-15-23 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 43 m | Show |
#307/308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Buffalo vs Miami OH, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG. They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense. In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG. We don’t look for Buffalo’s offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league. In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games. For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season but they’ve played very well over the last few months. Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points. The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they’ve relied very heavily on the run which eats clock. In Smith’s 2 starts, he’s attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they’ve averaged only 263 total yards. We’d be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation. |
|||||||
11-14-23 | Panthers -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 5-3 | Win | 105 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
#17 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals +100) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Sharks are, by far, the worst team in the league so far this season. San Jose is 2-12-1 but what is particularly alarming about the record is the shots on goal stats in the two wins! The Sharks could easily be winless on the season as their 2-1 win over the Flyers saw the Sharks outshot by a 39-19 margin. The 3-2 win over Edmonton saw San Jose outshot by a 41-18 margin! Also, their 12 losses in regulation have all come by a multi-goal margin! In fact, the average margin of defeat for the Sharks in those dozen losses is 4 goals per game! The Sharks are being outshot 38.4 to 24.1 on the season! This is incredible how they are being outplayed night after night and now they must deal with a red hot Panthers team that has won 4 straight games and 9 of 12. Of course this is why Florida is priced as a heavy money line favorite on the road here but we get the value on the puck line. Remember, San Jose has 13 losses this season and all 12 of the losses that were in regulation were all by at least 2 goals! Florida is scoring 3.14 goals per game this season while the Sharks are averaging just 1.20 goals per game on the season! San Jose has been held to 2 or less goals in 11 of 12 games and Florida is averaging 4 goals per game during their 4-game winning streak. 4 to 2 or 4 to 1 sounds about right here and all signs point to the Panthers handing the Sharks another defeat by a multi-goal margin. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Florida at an even money price in this one is the value play here. |
|||||||
11-14-23 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 225.5 | Top | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - This line opened 233.5 and has moved down giving us added value with an Over bet. The Hawks are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.2 possessions per game. Detroit is slightly below average at 99.5 for the season. Detroit is 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.103 points per possession. The Hawks are 5th at 1.177PPP. The key here is that both are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency as both allow more than 1.140 points per possession. In their last five games, each team has been worse on the defensive end of the court allowing 117.6PPG (Hawks) and 118.6PPG (Pistons). Atlanta does a great job on the offensive boards with the 5th best average in the league compared to the Pistons who rank 14th in allowing O-boards. Conversely, the Pistons are 7th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, while the Hawks the 15th most. Both teams convert in transition extremely well ranking 3rd and 9th in fast break efficiency. Atlanta is coming off two straight games against top 10 defensive efficiency teams in the Heat and Magic and those games finished with 226 and 239 total points. Detroit is coming off two lower scoring games by their standards, but they faced a top 10 defense in Philly and the 3rd slowest paced team in the Bulls. Last season in four meetings these two teams scored 231, 248, 235 and 236. Bet Over! |
|||||||
11-14-23 | Bowling Green v. Oakland -125 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland -1 over Bowling Green, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Oakland is 0-2 on the season but both were road games vs Big 10 teams. The Grizzlies were more than competitive vs high level teams Ohio State (lost by 6) and Illinois (lost by 11). They easily covered both of those games by a combined 27 points. Now they take a big step down talent wise facing Bowling Green in their home opener. BG is 2-0, which is giving us some value here, but their wins have come against Chicago State (one of the worst teams in the nation) and Arkansas State, both at home. In their most recent game on Saturday vs Arkansas State the Falcons won by 6 but it was a 2 point game with 19 seconds remaining. BG made 11 more FT’s in the game which was the difference. Now they take the road where they’ve been poor to say the least with a 7-21 SU record over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons have on 1 starter returning and just 21% of their minutes are back from last year which is the 2nd lowest total in the MAC. They are also trying to mesh a number of new transfers along with a new coach who came over from Southern Utah. Meanwhile on the Oakland bench is head coach Kampe who has 675 wins at the school which is the 4th most wins of any active coach. This is also a revenger for Oakland who lost 87-82 last year vs Bowling Green. The Grizzlies, who were favored by 8 in that game, blew a lead with under 1 minute remaining in that one. Now they are laying only a single point this year at home which is some solid value in our opinion. Their first 2 really tough road games have prepared them to get a home win here. Take Oakland. |
|||||||
11-14-23 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 54.5 | Top | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
#305/306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The MAC has a number of bad offenses this season, but these are not 2 of them. In league play WMU ranks 2nd in total offense and scoring while NIU ranks 3rd in total offense and scoring. The Huskies also lead the conference averaging almost 7 YPP in league games. The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in every MAC game with the exception of Ohio, and they’ve put up 83 points over their last 2 games alone. The problem has been their defense which ranks dead last in the MAC in YPG and YPP allowed and 11th (out of 12 teams) in PPG allowed. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in every conference game and even terrible offenses, EMU and Ball State, put up 21 and 24 points respectively. Even Iowa, who has the worst offense in the nation averaging 243 YPG (133rd) scored 49 points on this defense. NIU is coming off their worst offensive performance in conference play last week vs Ball State but 3 turnovers limited their opportunities. We expect them to bounce back here. Prior to their game vs the Cardinals, Northern had averaged 32 PPG their previous 5 MAC games. NIU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but they’ve played so many weak offenses in conference play. 5 of the 8 worst offenses in the nation on a YPP basis reside in the MAC. The Huskies have faced 2 of the top 4 offenses in the league this season, Toledo and CMU, and in those games they gave up 35 & 37 points. Now they face a WMU offense that is right there with those 2 teams on that side of the ball. The Broncos also excel and running the ball and they are facing a defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run. WMU is also the fastest paced team in the MAC and top 25 in the country in that stat. Lots of scoring opportunities should be available on Tuesday night and we grab the Over. |
|||||||
11-13-23 | UC-Santa Barbara +3.5 v. UTEP | Top | 76-89 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
#891 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UC Santa Barbara +3.5 over UTEP, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting the Big West reigning champs UCSB (27-8 record last year) off an opening season loss last week vs a solid Portland State team. The Gauchos played that game without PG Mitchell who was the Big West player of the year last season. He had a slight injury and was held out as a precaution but practiced over the weekend so we anticipate he’s back here. He’ll be teamed with 2 other veteran guards Anderson & Pierre-Louis giving UCSB one of the top backcourts out West. Those 2 combined for 35 points and 7 assists in Thursday’s 6 point loss and now we add Mitchell back in the mix. UTEP is coming off a 14-18 season and finished 10th in CUSA’s 11 team league. They step into this game with a 2-0 record but their opponents were McMurry College and University of Science and Arts. The Miners may be a bit overconfident after scoring 120+ points in both of those games and shooting over 60% (combined both games) vs horrific opponents. Now they face one of the better mid majors in the country with a solid core back (all of their key guards) that went to the NCAA tournament last season. The Gauchos were favored by 9.5 points in their loss vs Portland State and now they are facing a team we have similarly rated and UCSB is more than a full possession underdog (+3.5 as of this write up on Sunday night). Nice value here with the better team getting points in our opinion. |
|||||||
11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 47.5 Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills, 8:15 PM ET - We are going to stick with the Under trend on NFL Prime Time games when the Broncos take on the Bills Monday Night. NFL Unders have hit at 61% overall for the season and Prime Time games have been especially profitable for bettors at 22-7 this season. In the last four weeks the PT Unders are 11-1 and the SNF and MNF games are 16-3 Under. Denver has some bad overall defensive statistics for the season but one horrendous game against Miami has somewhat skewed those numbers. In their last three games the Broncos D has played well allowing 19 and 9-points to the Chiefs in two games and holding Green Bay to 17. Denver has also made a commitment to their running game with 137-rushing yards per game in their last three games which is 4th most in the NFL. Buffalo allows 4.9 yards per rush which is 30th most in the league so expect a heavy dose of the running game by Denver here which shortens the game. The Bills haven’t looked like the team that was expected to contend for a Super Bowl this season and they’ve seen their scoring dip in recent games. Buffalo is averaging just 22.3PPG in their last three games and 1-point scored for every 16.2 yards gained which is 18th in the NFL over that stretch of games. Buffalo games have totaled 45 or less points in 4 of their last five. Denver and their opponents have combined for 36 or less points in three straight. We will bet Under on MNF. |
|||||||
11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
#262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Seahawks -6 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Seahawks blowout loss in Baltimore last week as the Ravens are playing at another level right now and might be the best team in the league at this point in time. Seattle has a great opportunity back at home against a Washington team basically in tank mode after gutting their defense at the trade deadline. Seattle is 3-1 SU at home this season with a pair of double digit wins over Arizona and Carolina and a 4-point win over Cleveland. The Seahawks have three huge games on deck with division showdowns versus the Rams and Niners with a road date in Dallas after that. That makes this game extremely important for their playoff lives. Washington has some of the worst defensive statistics in the league over the last four games and currently rank 28th in yards per game allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed (5.9), they can’t stop the run or the pass and give up 27.2PPG which is 30th. When it comes to offense the Commanders are nearly as bad ranking 23rd in offensive DVOA. Seattle is 11th in yards per play averaging 5.6 and have managed 311.8YPG despite facing 4 defenses that rank top 10 in yards allowed per game. Washington is coming off a low scoring close win over the Patriots but now travels to the West coast to face a much better Seahawks team off a loss. Hawks head coach Pete Carroll has been historically good off a loss with a cover rate of 62%. Lay it with Seattle here under a TD. |
|||||||
11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
#247/248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45 Points - San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The 49ers started the season on fire offensively with 5 straight games of 30+ points. In their last three games though they’ve managed just 17 points in each game. They have seen a regression in their yards per play and total yards per game in that three-game span. On the season they have the 4th best Red Zone scoring percentage at 65.63% but in their last three games they’ve dropped to 55.56%. Jacksonville has won 5 straight games and have put up some points this season with the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.1PPG. But a deeper dive inside the numbers shows a slightly different story as the Jags haven’t faced many defenses as good as the Niners. When the Jags faced a Chiefs team allowing 15.9PPG in September they managed just 9-points. San Francisco allows just 17.5PPG (4th) on the season and 5.2YPP which is 10th best in the NFL. The 49ers recently added another edge rusher in Chase Young and are coming off their worst defensive showing of the season in Cincinnati where they allowed 31-points. Jacksonville can also play defense with the 3rd overall ranked DVOA unit in the NFL. The Jaguars allow 79.2 rushing yards per game (4th) and 3.6 yards per rush (4th) along with an opponent’s completion percentage of 62.9% which is 11th best in the league. Jacksonville gives up just 19.5PPG which is 9th in the NFL. These two teams don’t typically play fast as the Jags rank 16th in plays per second, the 49er’s are last in the league in that stat category. NFL games tend to stay below the total when two teams come into the game with extra rest, which is the case here. Going back to 2018 the Under is 99-47-1 (68%) in this situation and it’s cashed 23 of 28 times this season. Some windy conditions in Jacksonville will also limit deep throws for both teams. The play here is UNDER the total. |
|||||||
11-11-23 | Fresno State v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 18-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night. |
|||||||
11-11-23 | Tennessee -2.5 v. Missouri | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover. |
|||||||
11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU OVER 68 | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 26 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 68 Points – North Texas vs SMU, Friday at 9 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with great offenses going at it here. UNT is the 8th fastest team in the country running a play every 21 seconds while SMU ranks 34th running a play ever 24 seconds. UNT averages 77 offensive plays per game (8th nationally) and SMU averages 75 (17th). Not only does each team run a lot of plays, they are both high level offenses ranking in the top 15 in total offense and both averaging 6.5 YPP. SMU averages 40 PPG and UNT averages 35 PPG. The Mustangs will be facing a Mean Green defense that flat out stinks, thus why they are 17 point favorites. The Green are allowing 470 YPG (132nd), 6.4 YPP (125th) and 37 PPG (129th). As bad as those numbers are, they’ve only faced ONE offense this season that is currently ranked in the top 45 nationally and that was Memphis who put up 45 on North Texas. We’re confident the Stangs top 40 in this one as that’s their average and this is the worst defense they’ve faced. Can UNT put points on the board? Our answer is yes. The SMU defense is highly ranked in a number of categories and they’ve allowed an average of only 16 PPG this season. However, they’ve played a weak slate of offenses this season. They’ve only faced 3 teams this year ranked inside the top 65 in total offense and those 3 (TCU, Oklahoma, and Rice) averaged 31 PPG vs this SMU defense. UNT offense is tough to slow down as they are very balanced averaging 181 YPG on the ground and over 300 through the air. They’ve put up at least 39 points in 5 of their last 8 games. Based on the 17 point spread, the projected score here is right around SMU 43, UNT 26 and we think both teams eclipse those numbers. Weather looks decent in the Dallas area on Friday night with light winds and we look for a shootout in this one. |
|||||||
11-10-23 | Wolves -6 v. Spurs | Top | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have opened some eyes this season with a current 4 game winning streak with impressive wins against Boston and Denver in that stretch. Granted, both W’s were at home but now they face a young Spurs team going through growing pains. San Antonio is 4-6 SU on the season but have now lost 3 straight with one of those being at home to the Raptors as a +3.5-point underdog. The Wolves should be a bigger favorite here if Toronto was laying -3.5. Minnesota is 3rd in the league in average point differential at plus +10.6PPG. San Antonio is last in the league in +/- at minus -12.5PPG. Neither offense has been great, ranking near league average in offensive efficiency, but defensively it’s not close. In fact, there couldn’t be a great difference between two teams in the league when it come to DEFF with the Wolves ranking 1st and the Spurs 30th. We will lay the points and predict a double-digit win by Minnesota in this one. |
|||||||
11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears UNDER 38.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 38.5 Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, 8:10 PM ET - The Under trend continues on NFL games in general hitting above 60% on the season, especially the TV night games that are on a 22-7 Under streak. Carolina came out of their bye-week and was expected to be much better offensively, but it hasn’t translated to the field. The Panthers are averaging just 4.0YPP in their last three games and managed just 3.9YPP last week against a Colts defense that is allowing 5.2YPP on the year. The Panthers have put up 15 and 13-points in their last two games and average 17.5 on the season which ranks 26th. Chicago had found some success offensively with QB Fields but with QB Bagent they’ve regressed. Chicago is 19th in total yards per game, 17th in yards per play and score just 20.9PPG which ranks 19th. The Bears are 18th in Yards Per Point, Carolina is 24th. Chicago’s defense has allowed 20 or less points in 3 of their last five games. Carolina allowed 42-points to the Dolphins and Lions in their last four games, but those two offenses are far superior to this Bears unit. |
|||||||
11-09-23 | Virginia v. Louisville UNDER 50.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 6 m | Show |
#115/116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Virginia vs Louisville, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on the UVA – Georgia Tech Over last week which cashed but part of that handicap was how Cav QB Muskett had been playing well. That changes here as Muskett was injured (high ankle sprain) and will most likely miss this one on a short week. His replacement was freshman Colandrea who picked up some experience earlier in the season when Muskett was injured. Last week Colandrea entered early in the 1st quarter and was only able to put up 17 points vs a Georgia Tech defense that was rated 130th in total defense entering last week’s game. Now UVA faces a high level defense in Louisville who ranks in the top 15 nationally in total offense and scoring defense and the Cards stop unit is peaking allowing 3 total points over their last 2 games vs Duke and Va Tech. They’ve held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 20 points or less. Needless to say we think Virginia struggles big time on offense here. This should be a run heavy game for Louisville which eats clock. They are a big favorite here and when they get the lead they’ve shown they’ll grind it out on the ground. Last week they got in front of a solid Va Tech team and ran the ball 38 times and attempted only 13 passes in a game that ended with 40 total points. A week prior they faced Duke, got out in front and ran the ball 48 times with only 16 pass attempts in a game that ended with 23 total points. We see a similar situation here and we’re not comfortable laying 20+ points with Louisville, the Under should cash here if it plays out as we expect. |
|||||||
11-08-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - We don’t see many points being scored in this contest and will bet UNDER the total. Houston is actually playing defense for their new coach Udoka which shouldn’t be a surprise considering his Celtics in 21-22 was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Houston has held the Kings to 97 and 89 points in their last two games and also held the Warriors to 106 four games ago. The Kings and Warriors were both top 10 in offensive efficiency a year ago. Now they face a Lakers team that was 20th in OEFF last season and currently rank 25th this season at 1.047-points per possession. Houston is ranked near league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency with their games averaging 218.8 total points per game. The Lakers are scoring less than the league average at 111.1PPG and rank 29th in team 3PT% at 29.8%. Both teams favored the UNDER last season when playing in this rest schedule with a combined 12-17-1 combined record. |
|||||||
11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 41 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Akron vs Miami Oh, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Surprising to most because they are a 2-7 team, the Zips defense is pretty solid. They are in the top 50 nationally in total defense (342 YPG) and YPP defense (5.4). They’ve been outstanding vs the pass allowing opposing QB’s to complete only 54% of their pass attempts (8th best in the nation). They’ve been a bit unlucky defensively allowing 1 point for every 11.8 yards gained (average is around 1 for every 15 yards gained) so their overall numbers are better than their PPG allowed numbers. They are facing a Miami offense that ranks 90th in total offense and they are down to their 2nd string QB Smith who made his first start last week for the injured starter Gabbert. The Redhawks already don’t pass much but it will even be less with Smith under center who has completed less than 50% of his career attempts. Last week Miami attempted only 11 passes vs Ohio. It looks like they played well offensively with 30 points but they were very fortunate to get to that number with only 290 total yards. On the other side, Akron can’t score. They did last week vs a bad Kent team but prior to that the Zips had scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their previous 6 games. They rank 129th for the season with just 17 PPG. They are facing a Miami defense that is very solid allowing only 19 PPG on the season. They have allowed only 61 points over their last 5 games including holding Toledo, easily the best offense in the league, to just 21 points a few weeks ago. Both teams are slow paced with Miami coming in at 128th and Akron 76th in plays per second so we don’t look for many possessions here. Defense rules the day and Under is the play. |
|||||||
11-07-23 | Flyers v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#61/62 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Philadelphia Flyers at San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:37 PM ET - Great set-up for an over here. Two teams very hungry for a win and with fresh skating legs (both off since Saturday) and ready to push hard here but both clubs having major issues in goal. The Flyers will still be without top goalie Carter Hart here. That means Cal Petersen or Samuel Ersson will get the call. Petersen was struggling in the AHL so far this season and then he struggled against the Kings Saturday in his first game after being called up. Ersson is off a good start but this was a shock that can not be expected to be repeated here as he allowed 14 goals on just 59 shots in his first three appearances! The Sharks top guy is Kappo Kahkonen but even if he is back now from his upper body injury, he has a 4.30 GAA so far this season. Mackenzie Blackwood has a 4.77 GAA so far this season. Magnus Chrona is a rookie who allowed 4 goals on only 17 shots in relief of Blackwood Saturday in a 10-2 loss to Pittsburgh. Yes, the Sharks lost 10-2 and this was after losing 10-1 to Vancouver! San Jose has tied an NHL record with 11 straight losses to start the season! However, they showed effort early in the loss to the Penguins and then things unraveled. They badly want to win and will keep pushing hard but their defense and goaltending will hold them back. The same can be said of the Flyers who are off their worst game of the season as they just lost 5-0 at LA Saturday. Philly had not only not been shutout this season, they had never been held to less than 2 goals in a game this season and were averaging 3.4 goals scored per game in their first 11 games this season. So Philly can be expected to bounce back here and their power play did look much better but just could not get the finishes. Those will come against this bad Sharks team but, again, San Jose is going to bring it at the other end of the ice. They do not want to set NHL history with a 12th straight loss so SJ pushes hard here but can not stop Philly either. 5-4 would not surprise us in the least but certainly we should see this one get to at least a 4-3 final. 4 of the 5 games not started with Hart in goal for Philly have seen the Flyers allow at least 5 goals each time! The Sharks are allowing 5 goals per game this season! Based on the above, don't be surprised if one of these teams reaches the 5 goal mark here and we can't see either team finishing with less than 3 goals here given the above. Over is our play here. |
|||||||
11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 44 | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Ohio vs Buffalo, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET - The Ohio defense is among the best in the nation and Buffalo’s defense has played very well over the last month and a half. The Bobcats rank in the top 12 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense. They have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 20 points or less including limiting their foe to 10 points or less 4 times. That defensive dominance should continue on Tuesday night vs a Buffalo offense that averages just 324 total yards per game (110th nationally) on 4.5 YPP (127th). The Bulls do like to air it out offensively, however Ohio gives up very few explosive plays in the pass game allowing just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (14th nationally). On top of that, as of this writing on Monday, the Buffalo weather looks a little windy on Tuesday night (15 MPH). The Bulls overall defensive numbers aren’t great but much of that was their early struggles through the first 4 weeks of the season. Since entering MAC play, this Buffalo defense has allowed an average of 16.8 PPG. Last week they did give up 31 points to Toledo, easily the best offense in the MAC, however 7 of those points for the Rockets came on a kick return. The Ohio offense isn’t in the same stratosphere as Toledo ranking 96th in total offense and 102nd in YPP. The Bobcats also rank outside the top 100 in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games. This should also be a slower paced game with Ohio ranking 105th in seconds per play and Buffalo 52nd. We don’t see either team topping 21 points in this game so Under is our call. |
|||||||
11-06-23 | Chargers -3.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #475 LA Chargers -3.5 vs NY Jets, 8:15 PM ET - This line doesn’t make sense for a few key reasons. The Chargers are sitting at -3.5 points with heavy tickets and public support coming in on the Jets. So why won’t the oddsmakers move this line to -3? Someone knows something that the rest of us don’t. The Jets were coming off a bye prior to last week's game against the Giants so you would think they would’ve been prepared. Not so much as they managed just 251 total yards of offense and punted 11 times in the game. The Giants threw just 14 total passes for minus -9 yards. The Chargers looked good in their win over Chicago, albeit against the Bears. L.A. put up 352 total yards and 5.4YPP with QB Herbert completing 31 of 40 passes with 3 TD’s. The Jets will have a tough time trading points with this Chargers offense as QB Wilson/Jets average just 164 passing yards per game (31st) with a 58% completion percentage which is 30th in the league. New York as a home dog is 8-9 ATS their last seventeen with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Bet the Chargers here. |
|||||||
11-06-23 | Wizards v. 76ers OVER 228.5 | Top | 128-146 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 in Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - NBA games are averaging 225.2 points per game but this game will be anything but ‘average’. The Wiz are the fastest paced team in the league 105.5 possessions per game. They have to play fast because they don’t play defense and they are not overly efficient on the offensive end. Washington is averaging 115PPG but allowing 125.2PPG. They are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. That’s not a good recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that is averaging 1.188-points per possession which is 4th best in the league. The Sixers are the 6th best FG% team in the league at 48.6%, 6th in 3PT% at 39% and it doesn’t hurt they make their free throws at 81.8% which is 5th. Washington has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league including being last in FG% D and 28th in 3PT% D. The Wiz have faced Atlanta, Boston and Indiana this season who have similar scoring number to Philly and those three teams put 130, 126 and 143 points against Washington. Easy Over call here. |
|||||||
11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers OVER 44 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Indianapolis vs Carolina, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We expect a lot of offensive snaps in this game as Indy is the fastest paced team in the NFL & Carolina 15th. Both in the top 6 in offensive snaps per game so plenty of opportunities to score here. Indy’s defense has been terrible over the last month – they’ve allowed 37, 39, and 38 points last 3 weeks and all 3 of those opponents (Jags, Browns, and Saints) rank in bottom half of NFL in offensive efficiency (YPP). On the other side of the ball, the Colts offense has been solid the last 3 games since QB Minshew took over for an injured Richardson. In the last 3 games Indianapolis has scored 85 points (28 PPG) and averaged around 400 YPG during that 3 game run. Carolina HC Reich gave up play calling to OC Brown and we expect some new wrinkles moving forward. Carolina QB Young played well last week with 71% completions and 235 yards passing in first win giving the Panthers some positive momentum. They only scored 15 points but had opportunities to score getting shut out on downs at the Houston 2 yard line and settling for 3 FG’s with 2 coming inside Houston’s 20 yard line. In this game we have the 30th and 32nd ranked scoring defenses here both allowing over 28 PPG. Colts games are averaging 54 total points this season and Panther games are averaging 46 total points, both higher than this current total of 44. Looks like perfect weather in Charlotte on Sunday with temps in the low 70s, light winds, and no rain. Over is the call. |
|||||||
11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -125 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
#452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -1.5 or -125 money line over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM – Game being played in Germany - Huge game with playoff implications in Germany on Sunday morning. These 2 teams currently are sitting in the #1 and #2 playoff spots in the AFC and this game could go a long way to deciding home field advantage. Both teams are 6-2 on the year but we like KC in this one coming off a rare loss. The Chiefs were rolled at division rival Denver last Sunday 24-9, however they outgained the Broncos by more than 1.0 YPP but had 5 turnovers in the game on 11 total drives. That isn’t going to get you a win in the NFL. On top of that, QB Mahomes had an illness and nearly didn’t play so he was nowhere near 100%. Now we get KC off an embarrassing performance and they are a very good bounce back team under Andy Reid. In fact, in his head coaching career, Reid’s teams are 21-10 ATS (22-9 SU) as a favorite of 7 or fewer points off a loss. Miami has beaten a bunch of bottom tier NFL teams so far this season (Giants, Patriots (twice), Panthers, etc…) but the 2 good teams they’ve faced have beat the Fins handily. The Bills rolled this team by 28 points and the Eagles topped them by 14. They rank #1 DVOA offensively, which isn’t surprising, but their defense and special teams both rank outside the top 20 DVOA. Speaking of DVOA, the Chiefs are the only team in the NFL that ranks inside the top 5 in overall, offense, defense, and special teams. KC has lost back to back games only ONCE since the start of the 2020 season and we don’t see that happening here. With this line set under a FG, we like the Chiefs on Sunday in Germany. |
|||||||
11-04-23 | Boise State +3 v. Fresno State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -117 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team. |
|||||||
11-04-23 | Kings -127 v. Rockets | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: #513 Sacramento Kings -2 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - We will back a good team in the West, the Kings, off a loss against one of the worst teams in the NBA off their first win of the season. Houston shot INSANELY well in their win over the Hornets by hitting 57% or 21 of 37 3-pointers. Going into that game the Rockets were shooting just 29.3% from deep. Houston put up 128 points but that was against a Charlotte defense that is one of the worst in the NBA. Against two comparable defenses to the Kings, the Rockets have failed to top 100 points against the Magic and Warriors. Sacramento grades out near even to the Warriors in our power ratings and Golden State was a 7-point favorite on this floor just last week. The Kings are 10th in offensive efficiency this season and 15th defensively. In comparison the Rockets are 23rd in OEFF and 27th in DEFF. Sacramento has beaten this team 6 straight times and only one of those wins was by less than 3-points. You’ll be surprised to know that the Kings are the best team in the league ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season with a 24-14 ATS record. Lay the small points or consider the money line in the -125 range. |
|||||||
11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 61 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#383/384 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 61 Points – LSU vs Alabama, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Bama has a solid defense this year but not a high level Crimson Tide stop unit of past seasons. They have very good overall numbers but they haven’t faced a decent passing attack since Texas who put up 34 points on the Tide. The average rank of the pass offenses they’ve faces since Texas is 68th. On Saturday they face the #1 pass offense in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Jaylen Daniels who already has over 2,500 yards passing, 25 passing TD’s and over 500 yards rushing. LSU leads the nation in scoring at 47 PPG and they’ve topped 40 points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have topped 500 total yards in every game this year but one and that was their season opener vs Florida State and they had 459 yards in that one. The Bama defense has allowed 20+ points in each of the last 3 games vs teams ranked 43rd, 45th, and 73rd nationally in scoring offense. Now they face the best offense in the country. We’re confident LSU tops 30 in this game. So can the Crimson Tide keep up offensively? Absolutely. LSU’s defense is bad. It looks like the Tiger defense may be progressing allowing 0 points vs Army and 18 points vs Auburn in their last 2 games. Forget about it. Army’s offense is one dimensional and terrible scoring a grand total of 14 points over their last 3 games combined! Auburn’s offense can’t pass (119th) so they were unable to take advantage of LSU’s defensive weakness vs the pass (91st vs the pass and 109th in YPP allowed). Prior to that, in their previous 3 games, LSU allowed 31, 55, and 39 points. The Tigers are missing a few key pieces in their secondary this week which will make it very tough to slow down an Alabama offense that has been clicking through the air. Since getting inexplicably benched vs USF early this season, Tide QB Milroe has completed almost 70% of his passes with 8 TD’s and 3 interceptions many games vs defenses much better than this LSU stop unit. Last year these 2 totaled 63 points and in 3 of the last 4 seasons they’ve gotten to at least that number. This is a keep up game in our opinion. Both offenses will have tons of success and each will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Weather looks perfect in Tuscaloosa with temps around 60 degrees with almost no wind on Saturday night. Over is the play. |
|||||||
11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home. |
|||||||
11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show |
#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion. |
|||||||
11-03-23 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 225.5 | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 225.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:10PM ET - This is a rematch from a game earlier this season in Cleveland where these two teams combined for 238 total points. Two things stand out from those results. 1) The Cavs had a 12-point quarter which is drastically lower than an average NBA quarter. 2) The Cavaliers played without their best player and leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who averages over 31PPG. The Pacers may be without T Haliburton here but that just means more minutes/opportunities for Aaron Nesmith who scored 26 points against this Cavs team in the first meeting. Indiana is 4th in pace of play which means they’ll want to play fast here. Cleveland is one of the slower teams, but they average 1.048 points per possession which is the 6th most efficient offense in the league. Indiana has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.204 points per possession allowed. Cleveland hasn’t been as good defensively to start this season ranking 16th in DEFF. These two teams combined for 225 or more points in 4 of the last five meetings. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL. |
|||||||
11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
ASA Top Play 10* on: #559 Orlando Magic Pick'em at Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Yes, you read that correctly, we are taking the road favorite Magic tonight. Scheduling will be a factor here as the Jazz are coming off a game last night versus Memphis and also just played in Denver on the 30th. Last season when playing without rest the Jazz were 4-11 SU with a negative differential. The Magic will hold a huge advantage on the defensive end of the court as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.001 points per possession. The last place or 30th team in the NBA in DEFF is the Utah Jazz allowing 1.223PPP. In terms of offensive efficiency these teams are nearly identical at 1.111 points per possession. The Jazz were 16-21 SU last season off a win, and this is going to be a tough situation against a rested Magic team off a loss in their previous game. Take the better defense and back the Magic. |
|||||||
11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #310 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, 8:15 PM ET - The NFL continues to give us these miserable Thursday night games and tonight certainly fits the bill with the 3-4 Titans and 4-3 Steelers. We are on the Steelers at home off a home loss. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way, the Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. This isn’t as significant as you may think considering their schedule includes: 49ers, Browns, Ravens and Jaguars (combined 21-10 SU record). Pittsburgh has struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in most key categories but a healthy QB Trubisky should inject some life into this offense. Let’s face it, he can’t be worse than Kenny Pickett who has the 29th worst QB rating in the league, completing 61% of his attempts for just 1,330 total yards with 5 TD’s to 4 INT’s. The Titan’s defense is 22nd in yards per play allowed 20th in passing yards allowed per game and 27th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Don’t be fooled by Tennessee’s newfound rookie QB Levis who had a few big passing plays which accounted for most of his 238 passing yards last week. We are betting he struggles here on a short week, playing in a hostile environment and facing a Steelers defense averaging 3.1 sacks per game (7th most in NFL). In the last ten years Pittsburgh has the 5th best home record in the NFL at 59-29-1 SU with an average margin of victory of +4.9PPG. We will lay the short number of -3 or less on Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
11-02-23 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover. |
|||||||
11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on: #546 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation to back the Wolves at home here as they are coming off a loss to the Hawks and playing with revenge from last year’s playoffs series loss to Denver. Minnesota actually played well in Atlanta the other night but couldn’t overcome some hot shooting by the Hawks. Minnesota shot 49% from the field overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Denver is 4-0 to the start the season but we’re not sold on their record as it’s come against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz. Only one of those wins comes against a team with a winning record and two of those wins are against teams with a combined 1-7 SU record. The Wolves were 22-19 SU at home last season with an average Margin of Victory of +0.9PPG while the Nuggets weren’t a great road team with a 19-22 SU record -3.1PPG. Denver may have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating this season, but the Wolves are 7th in defensive efficiency. Last season Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four regular season meetings with the Nuggets and he’ll have a big impact in this game that Minnesota has had circled since last season’s playoffs. Grab the points. |
|||||||
11-01-23 | Sabres v. Flyers -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
#32 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Flyers (-105) over Buffalo Sabres, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The Flyers are off a tight 3-2 loss but that came against a strong Hurricanes team and, overall, Philadelphia again looked solid in that match-up. Philadelphia has been a bit of an early season surprise but the fact is they have a good mix of young talent and veteran presence and also the management and hockey operations changes that were made entering this season are paying immediate dividends. The Flyers right now have looked just as good, if not better, than the Sabres so far this season and also have the home ice edge in this match-up. That being said, the set up here is perfect because Buffalo is off a shocking win over a strong Avalanche team. The Sabres won that game 4-0 behind a shutout performance from Lukkonen between the pipes. However, he had struggled prior to that and Buffalo has been dealing with injuries to goalies Levi and Comrie. The point being, Lukkonen was their #3 choice at goalie! His first two outings were unimpressive so don't be surprised if he quickly regresses after the shocking win over Colorado. As for the Flyers, their #1 goalie is Carter Hart and he is expected between the pipes here and has played very well particularly on home ice. Hart has allowed a total of just 6 goals in his 4 home starts this season! Overall, the Flyers are the deeper team as they are getting more out of their 2nd and 3rd lines than Buffalo has this season. The Sabres have struggled other than their top line. Also, prior to the 4-0 win, Buffalo had lost 5 of 8 games and other than a 3-1 win over the Islanders they were allowing about 4 goals per game in the other 7 games in that stretch. Philly is now off B2B home losses but Hart was in goal for only one of them and this followed the Flyers going a perfect 3-0 in their first 3 home games and winning those games by a combined score of 12 to 3. The Sabres have lost 2 of 3 on the road this season. Home team money line is our play here. |
|||||||
10-31-23 | Rangers +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -100 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:03 PM ET - This game is essentially a bullpen game as Mantiply is just an opener for the Diamondbacks and Heaney has lasted a total of only 6 innings his 4 post-season appearances (2 starts). So if we talk about team facts here, the Rangers have won all 9 of their road post-season games! Based on the way Texas has played away from home in this post-season, they are loaded with confidence and the same can not be said for a Diamondbacks team that so often has struggled to score many runs in these playoffs. We look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as the Rangers resume their long-term pattern of consistently crushing the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win! Those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston have already carried momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well as they jumped out 3-0 in the 3rd inning yesterday and then hung on for the 3-1 win. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and will likely hit much better today too after a surprisingly quiet effort yesterday. Texas rolls again here with our computer math model showing a strong probability of another road win in this one. Take the Rangers |
|||||||
10-31-23 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one. |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions UNDER 47 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 47 POINTS LV Raiders at Detroit Lions, 8:20 PM ET - We are betting the NFL TV night game Under trend will continue here with this non-conference showdown between the Raiders and Lions. On that note, heading into this past weekend, Unders were 22-11 this season when non-conference teams squared off. These two teams are two of the slower paced teams in the NFL with LV running a play every 28.8 seconds (21st), while the Lions run a play every 29.5 seconds (27th). Scoring is down in the NFL this season at 43.4PPG with Unders cashing at roughly 60%. The Raiders have the second worst offense in terms of efficiency and haven’t had any success running the ball or throwing it. LV is 27th in total yards per game, last in rushing yards per game and yards per rush. It will be tough to run in this game against a Lions defense that is 2nd in rushing yards allowed a 9th in yards per rush attempt. Detroit has the superior offense in this matchup as the Lions rank top 11 in total yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in passing yards and 8th in completion percentage. The Raiders aren’t great at stopping the run so expect the Lions to focus on that aspect of their offense. We don’t expect the Lions to put QB Goff in jeopardy with Raider’s edge rusher Maxx Crosby (6.5 sacks) on the field which will limit explosive plays by Detroit. Las Vegas is scoring just 16PPG and only one of their games this season has finished with more points than this total. Detroit games have finished with less than 46 total points in four of their seven games. |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - We were not high on the Warriors heading into the season and nothing on the court has changed that opinion. The Warriors were atrocious on the road last season with a 11-30 SU record and an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG which was 8th worst in the NBA. Tonight, they are playing the second end of a back-to-back and face a rested Pelicans team playing their second straight home game. The Pels have already beaten two playoff teams from a season ago with a 7-point win in Memphis and a 9-point home victory over the 76ers. Despite missing Zion Willamson all of last season and Brandon Ingram for a portion of the season the Pels still put together a 27-14 SU home record with an average +/- of +5PPG. Last season at home the Pelicans beat the Warriors twice, once by 9-points and once by 45. Golden State is still a marquee team and opponents ‘get up’ every time they face the Warriors and you can bet the Pelicans bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Lay the short number. |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
#945 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at this line today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Diamondbacks, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the much bigger pitching advantage today in this match-up, How is this line almost a pick'em when Brandon Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA in the post-season and Max Scherzer has a 9.45 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is that Scherzer has more rest entering this start then he did entering his prior start and that will make a difference here! Also, Pfaadt really struggled for much of this season before now enjoying some post-season success. Don't be surprised if he matches up much worse with the Rangers here than he did with the Phillies. Overall, Pfaadt is not a guy with dominating stuff. Also, let's now look at other factors here like the fact that the Rangers have won all 8 of their road post-season games! This is a pivotal Game 3 in this series and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 9 in a row as the Rangers continue to crush the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win and those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston will carry momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and Texas rolls again here after the ugly Game 2 loss at home. Take the Rangers |
|||||||
10-29-23 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 46 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
#271/272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - These 2 played a few weeks ago in KC and the final score was Chiefs 19, Broncos 8. We see a similar type game on Sunday. Bad weather is expected in Denver with high probability of snow and high temps in the 20’s. Not great for a solid offensive output. In their game on October 12th neither team lit it up offensively with KC putting up 389 total yards and Denver just 197. The KC defense has been high level this season not allowing a single opponent to top 21 points. They rank in the top 10 in total defense and YPP allowed and they are giving up only 15 PPG (2nd in the NFL). Their overall defense ranks 5th DVOA and 6th EPA. They’ll be facing a Denver offense that has scored 21 or less in 5 of their 7 games this season. Their last 2 games the Broncos have scored 27 total points vs KC & Green Bay. The Denver defense ranks dead last in many categories, however much of that is skewed due to their game @ Miami where they allowed 70 points, over 700 total yards, and 10.2 YPP. If we subtract their game vs Miami, the Broncos are allowing 24 PPG which is much better than their current number of 31 PPG allowed. They are trending up as well allowing 36 total points in the last 2 games vs KC & GB. We don’t expect many offensive snaps here with 2 of the slower paced teams in the NFL – KC ranks 25th in plays per second and Denver 23rd. Under is the play. |
|||||||
10-29-23 | Jaguars -2 v. Steelers | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville Jags -2 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - How the Steelers have a 4-2 record we have no idea. They’ve been outgained in every game this season. They are just the 2nd team since 1970 with a winning record through 6 games after being outgained in all 6. As you might expect based on those numbers, Pittsburgh is 26th in the NFL in YPP differential and every team below them has a losing record. The offense is bad ranking 31st in total offense, 28th in rush offense, and 25th in pass offense. They have topped 300 yards of total offense just once this season and that was facing a poor Raider defense. The Steelers are 2nd in the NFL in turnover margin which has helped their cause but can’t be counted on from week to week. The Jags are rolling right now. They’ve won 4 straight games both SU & ATS and they’ve had 10 days to get ready for this one after beating the Saints on the road last Thursday night. Jacksonville should control the ground game here as Pittsburgh’s defense weakness is stopping the run. They rank 28th in the NFL allowing 142 YPG on the ground and Jax is putting up 114 YPG rushing. On the flip side, the Steelers have been terrible on the ground barely rushing for 80 YPG. Pittsburgh is averaging 61.0 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent, 31st in the league while Jacksonville is averaging 32.9 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, eighth in the league. Jags QB Lawrence is a bit banged up but has had extra time as we mentioned and practiced this week so we expect him to play. Big edge at QB and in the running game for Jacksonville so we’ll lay it. |
|||||||
10-28-23 | Ohio State -14.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it. |
|||||||
10-28-23 | Knicks v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 87-96 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - This is a great early season situation to back the Pelicans at home facing the unrested Knicks. New York is off a hard fought game last night in Atlanta making this the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four nights. Last night the Knicks had a tight rotation with essentially 8 players getting all the minutes so fatigue becomes a factor in this one. New Orleans got off to a great start to the season with a road win on Oct 25th in Memphis. This will be their home opener where the Pels were 27-15 SU with an average +/- of plus 4.8PPG last season. New Orleans achieved that record despite not having Zion Williamson for the season and missing Brandon Ingram for 37 games. In the season opener they had their starting five in place for the 111-104 win over Memphis where they dominated the glass with a 52-37 rebound advantage. This game has blowout written all over it. Back the Pelicans at home here. |
|||||||
10-28-23 | Georgia v. Florida +14.5 | Top | 43-20 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout. |
|||||||
10-27-23 | Nets +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with a Nets team off a home loss, while the Mavs are off a road win. Dallas got a 7-point win over the young San Antonio Spurs who won just 22 games a year ago. Brooklyn took a contender in the Eastern Conference down to the wire and lost by 1-point to the Cavaliers. The Nets suffered that close loss despite their best players having off nights. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie led the Nets in scoring a year ago at 26.1PPG, 16.6PPG and 16.5PPG respectively. Between the 3 of them in the opener they managed just 37-total points. Those players will see a dramatic improvement in their scoring tonight seeing they just faced a Cavs team that was 1st in defensive efficiency a year ago. Dallas by comparison was 23rd in the league in DEFF a season ago. The Nets had a winning record on the road last season at 22-19 with a +/- of -1.3PPG. Dallas at home was 23-18 SU with an average Margin of Victory of +2.7PPG. Last season the Mavs were the worst home favorite in the NBA with a 10-23-2 ATS record. As an away dog the Nets were a profitable 15-11 ATS. Easy call to grab the points with Brooklyn |
|||||||
10-27-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
#941/942 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Friday at 8:07 PM ET - The Rangers have a retractable roof ballpark. That helps with the brutal summers in Texas to keep the heat out. Also, when the roof is open, the Rangers have hit much better. That is why Astros manager Dusty Baker was mad during the ALCS when a decision was made for the roof to be open when he had been told it would not be. It turned out not to matter to the Astros as they won every game in Arlington in the series and the Rangers won every game in Houston. However, the point as it relates to run totals is that this ballpark has been proven to be less hitter-friendly when the roof is closed. The expectation here, due to rain in the area tonight, is that the roof will be closed. Couple that with two teams that do not see each other much in regular seasons plus the jitters of a Game 1 World Series match-up for two teams not usually in the showcase event and you have a great set-up for a light-hitting Game 1. Also, the bullpens for each of these teams got the job done well when called upon in their prior series and then, on top of that, you have a great starting pitching match-up here in Game 1. Zac Gallen struggled a bit with the Phillies but, even including those stats, he has allowed an average of just 2.5 runs per start in his last 6 starts overall. The Rangers Nathan Eovaldi has been great and is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in this post-season. He also is coming off a 12-5 regular season in which he produced a 3.63 ERA. Our computer math model is projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
|||||||
10-26-23 | Bucs v. Bills UNDER 43.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 43.5 or 44 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Buffalo Bills, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 teams have combined to play 13 games this season and only 4 of those have gone Over the total. We expect another low scoring game on Thursday night. Tampa games are averaging just 34 total points this season and Buffalo games are averaging 45 total points. The Bucs offense has been below average all season long ranking 23rd or lower in total offense, scoring offense, and YPP average. They have scored 13 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. We expect them to struggle vs a Buffalo defense that entered last week’s game vs New England ranked 12th in total defense but played poorly. They allowed a poor New England offense to average over 6.6 YPP and score 29 points. It was the worst performance from a Buffalo defense that has been solid for the most part all season including holding a dynamic Miami offense to just 20 points. We expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder on that side of the ball Thursday night. The Bills offense has been trending down since their win over Miami. Since scoring 48 vs the Fins, this offense has put up 20, 14, and 25 points the last 3 weeks. Even last week when they scored 25 points, 2 of those TD’s came on their final 2 possessions of the game when they were playing catch up. Prior to their final 2 offensive possessions, the Bills had 10 points and only 230 total yards. They’ve be facing a decent Tampa defense that’s rated higher than 2 of Buffalo’s last 3 opponents. The Bills are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, 30th in plays per second, and TB ranks middle of the pack in that category. NFL prime time Unders (Sunday night, Monday night, and Thursday night games) have been fantastic with a 133-85-4 spanning the last 5+ years (61% Unders). It looks a bit windy in Buffalo on Thursday evening with sustained winds around 10 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. Under is the play on Thursday. |
|||||||
10-26-23 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern OVER 63.5 | Top | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
#113/114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 63.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Thursday at 7 PM ET - When these 2 met last season, they total was 67.5 and they scored 74 points on nearly 1,000 total yards of offense. We look for a similar situation on Thursday night. Georgia Southern has been very solid offensively this season averaging 32 PPG but even better at home where they put up 40 PPG on 6.0 YPP. The Eagles are a fast paced team (22nd in the country) and they average a whopping 81 plays per game which is 2nd in the nation. Their strength on offense is throwing the ball with their QB Brin who has already thrown for 2100 yards on the season. They rank 12th nationally averaging 313 YPG passing and that plays directly into the weakness off the Georgia State defense which ranks 122nd in pass defense. Georgia State is more balanced but very solid running the ball (177 YPG) as well as passing (233 YPG) with veteran QB Grainger running the show. The Panthers are coming off a lower scoring game vs Louisiana as they upset the Rajin’ Cajuns 20-17. That final has kept this total lower than it should be in our opinion. Their total in last week’s game was set at 62 as well despite the fact that when comparing Louisiana to this week’s opponent (Georgia Southern) the Cajuns rank lower in total offense and higher in total defense along with being a much slower paced team. The only other game that Georgia State struggled offensively was vs Troy who’s defense ranks 8th in the nation. The Panthers scored at least 30 points in each of their other 5 games this season. We look for a high possession, fast paced game here similar to last year when the 2 teams ran 79 and 77 offensive snaps. The weather looks perfect in Statesboro with temps in the upper 50’s and light winds under 5 MPH. High scoring here. |
|||||||
10-26-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points. |
|||||||
10-26-23 | Ducks v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#42 ASA NHL PLAY ON 8* Boston Bruins Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over Anaheim Ducks, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET -The Bruins are 6-0 this season and only one of the 6 victories was by less than 2 goals. Boston's average margin of victory this season is exactly 2 goals and they are allowing just 1 goal per game. Conversely, the Ducks are 2-4 this season but, other than 1 high-scoring win, Anaheim has been held to scoring just 1.4 goals per game in their other 5 games. We simply can not envision the Ducks being able to do much in the offensive zone in this one given those numbers plus the way the Bruins have been playing. That said, this one is likely another dominating Boston win and we look for the Bruins to improve to 7-0 with another victory by a multi-goal margin. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Boston at a small money price in this one is the value play here. |
|||||||
10-25-23 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* BOSTON CELTICS -3 at NY Knicks – 7:10 PM ET - If you missed our Futures bet article, we had the Celtics over their win total this season. The Celtics went through a major overhaul of their roster BUT the players they brought in are selfless and will conform to the Boston way much quicker than others might. That’ the genius of GM Brad Stevens who knows he had a core to get to a Championship series, he just needed a few other parts to win it all. Those key pieces are Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This team won’t miss a beat and will open the season with a big win over the rival Knicks. Including the playoffs, the Celtics were 31-19 SU on the road with an average +/- of +2.9PPG which was best in the league. New York pretty much stood pat with their roster in the offseason with a team that went 47-35 SU and owned the 7th best overall Margin of Victory of +2.9PPG. Boston and New York were very similar in terms of offensive efficiency with both ranking in the top 4 but defensively it wasn’t close as the Celtics finished the year 3rd in DEFF while the Knicks were 19th. The Knicks beat the C’s 3 straight in the series, all as underdogs but we like Boston to open this season with a W. |
|||||||
10-24-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright. |
|||||||
10-24-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright. |
|||||||
10-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
#7/8 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals (-110) - Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Lightning simply are not the same team without goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He is currently on long-term injured reserve after having back surgery last month. Without Vasilevskiy, the Lightning have already shown a strong trend toward overs this season. It makes sense as their goalie options without him are Jonas Johansson and Matt Tomkins. The Bolts have a goals against average of 4.00 on the season and the Lightning have just 2 wins in 6 games so far. Tampa Bay has scored quite well though and this is particularly true on home ice where they are averaging 4 goals scored per game this season. Overall, 5 of 6 Tampa Bay games have totaled at least 7 goals and the only one that did not was against a Sabres team that has now seen 5 of its 6 games finish under the total this season. Now the Lightning take on a goal-happy Hurricanes team. Indeed Carolina is scoring at a high rate this season as well. The problem for the Canes is they are also conceding goals at a high rate too. This is why all 6 of the Hurricanes games this season have gone over the total! The crazy thing is that Carolina's games are not just going over the total, they are truly flying over the total with authority! Their 6 games have averaged 9.5 goals in regulation time and there is certainly nothing "average" about NHL games averaging 9.5 goals apiece! Look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. We are aware of the Hurricanes having some injury issues but one of those is goalie Frederik Andersen and, even if he plays, he would be rusty here and not 100%! Also, just like the other two Canes goalies this season, Andersen has not been impressive between the pipes. Over is our play here. |
|||||||
10-23-23 | 49ers -7 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 at Minnesota Vikings 8:20 PM ET - Let’s start with the fact that the 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL while the Vikings are one of the worst. San Franisco is 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 7th in yards per rush at 4.5 per carry. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing attempts per game and 21st in yards per rush at 4.0. You simply cannot be one-dimensional against a defense of this Niners caliber and expect to compete. Not to mention, the Vikings are without their best overall offensive player in WR Jefferson. San Francisco rates top 10 in most offensive and defensive categories while the Vikings rank around league average or worse. The Niners have some injuries on offense, but this loaded roster can overcome those shortcomings. The Vikings cannot. It’s well documented how Minnesota QB Cousins has struggled on MNF with a 2-10 SU record. Not only is his Monday night record bad, but his yards per game passing, interception rate and touchdown percentage, are also much worse. San Francisco is coming off a loss and are 7-4 ATS their last eleven in that situation, 3-1 ATS their last four with an average margin of victory in those games of +7.8PPG. Lastly, the 49ers were just favored by -8.5 points at the Browns who have the best defense in the NFL and are now laying less at the middle of the pack Vikings. |
|||||||
10-23-23 | Rangers +113 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 113 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#933 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +110 over Houston Astros, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at the two lines today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Astros, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the bigger pitching advantage today than the Phillies. In that NLCS match-up, Nola has been great but Kelly is also a solid starter. That said, how are the Phillies nearly a $2 favorite but this line is almost a pick'em when Javier has a 1.69 ERA in the post-season and Scherzer has an 11.25 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is if you look at the prior match-up between these two starters, Scherzer had trouble with 4 Astros hitters while Javier gave up hits to 3 Rangers hitters. In other words, the difference was not so great! That said, look at other factors here like the fact that the road team has incredibly won all 6 games in this series! In fact, the road team is now 9-0 in the Astros last 9 post-season games! This is a huge Game 7 and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as Houston is eliminated from the post-season. Texas delivering that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win is absolutely going to carry momentum into Game 7 as well. Texas believes even more now and they can win this thing! Take the Rangers |
|||||||
10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
#472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - We’re siding with the Eagles at home in a very solid situational spot in our opinion. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, at home, and coming off a loss as a favorite. Philly lost @ NY Jets last Sunday 20-14 but they dominated the flyboys in the stat sheet. The Birds outgained the Jets by over 100 yards and by +1.0 YPP. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game despite dominating the stats. The Jets scored half their points off Philly turnovers including an 8 yard TD drive with under 2:00 minutes remaining after the Eagles turned the ball over with the lead. We think Miami is overvalued based on their blowout wins vs bad teams. Since beating the LA Chargers by 2 points to open the season on a late TD the Miami wins have come vs New England, Denver, NY Giants, and Carolina. Those 4 teams have a combined record of just 3-21! The one high level team Miami played this year @ Buffalo, the Fins were destroyed 48-20. Miami has great offensive stats, but again, their opponents have been weak and their 70-20 win over Denver (Fins had over 700 total yards) is really making their overall stats look better than they actually are. They’ve already faced 3 of the bottom 6 defenses in the NFL. Philly’s defense is solid ranked in the top 10. Speaking of top 10, the Eagles are one of only 4 teams (SF, KC, Detroit, and Philly) that are ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense. We like this defense (#2 in the NFL allowing 65 YPG) to slow down Miami’s #1 rushing attack (181 YPG) and make the Fins one dimensional which is key. On the other side, Philly’s offense (#2 in the NFL) should have success running the ball vs a Miami defense thar ranks 20th vs the run and 20th in total defense. This will be just the 3rd home game for Philadelphia this season (2-0 so far) and they’ve won 14 of their last 17 home games. We like them to win this one by at least a FG. |
|||||||
10-22-23 | Packers v. Broncos OVER 45 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
#469/470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both teams have had extra time to prepare, Green Bay off a bye and Denver played on Thursday night, and we expect both offenses to click. The Broncos defense is historically poor to this point in the season ranking dead last in scoring defense, total defense, and YPP allowed. Only 15% of drives vs this Denver defense have gone 3 and out which is by far the lowest in the league and they’ve allowed at least 28 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Green Bay offense struggled in their most recent game vs Las Vegas, however coming off a bye they are getting healthy on that side of the ball. RB Jones is back, they are getting healthier on the Oline and at the WR position. Jones makes a huge difference in the run & pass game and in the 2 games he played this season, the Packers scored 58 total points. Offensively the Broncos have been solid this season. They are 5th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and 4th putting up 4.9 YPC on the ground. Denver will have success on the ground vs a Green Bay defense that is allowing 143 YPG rushing and 42.5% of the yardage allowed by Green Bay has been via rushing, the highest rate in the league. Meanwhile the Denver rushing attack has been explosive ranking 2nd in the NFL in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (15.6%). That ground game will open up Russell Wilson and their passing attack. We’re getting perfect weather for this one with light winds, sunny, and temps in the low 70s. We like the match up for both offenses here and this one goes Over. |
|||||||
10-22-23 | Falcons +3 v. Bucs | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If we were to give you the stats of last week’s Falcons/Commanders game after the fact, we’re pretty sure you would have bet a large sum of money on Atlanta. The Falcons outgained the Commanders 402 total yards to 193 and 5.1YPP to 4.3YPP but still lost 16-24. Atlanta had a +13 minute time of possession advantage too but 3 turnovers to 0 was too much for the Birds to overcome. Tampa Bay’s offense was exposed last week by the Lions in a 6-20 loss at home where they managed just 251 total yards of offense and 4.7YPP. The Bucs offense ranks 25th in total yards per game (291) gained and yards per play 4.9YPP. Tampa is one dimensional on offense with a rushing attack that averages just 3.0YPC which is last in the league. The Bucs will have a tough time scoring in this game with a running game that generates very little success rate and a passing O that will be facing a Falcons pass D that is 4th in the league. Atlanta allows just 179PYPG and ranks 11th in opposing QB’s completion percentage. Atlanta runs for 119YPG which is 10th best in the NFL. QB Ridder has thrown for over 630 total yards in the Falcons last two games with 3 TD/3INT’s. Atlanta has a net yards per play differential of +0.3YPP compared to the Bucs negative differential of minus -0.3YPP. The Falcons should be a rush-doubling underdog in this one which is one of the stronger NFL angles dating back to the mid-1980’s |
|||||||
10-21-23 | Appalachian State v. Old Dominion OVER 55 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#353/354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 55 Points - Appalachian State at Old Dominion, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We expect a high scoring game between these two Sun Belt schools. Last season when these same two teams met, they produced only 41-points, but they amassed 892 total yards with App State converting 7.8 yards per play, ODU was just under 6.0YPP. Neither defense is very good as Old Dominion ranks 89th in yards per point defense, App State is worse, ranking 98th. The Mountaineers really struggle to stop the run allowing 5.4 yards per rush (123rd) and they haven’t faced a rushing attack as good as this ODU’s. In fact, you could argue App State’s rush D is even worse than the number indicated as two of the offenses they’ve faced this season rank 94th or worse. Old Dominion is 19th in the country in rushing yards per attempt at 5.4 and should gouge this Neer’s defense overland. On the flip side, ODU struggles to stop the pass and Appalachian State is very capable of hitting big plays with their passing attack. App State is averaging 11.7 yards per completion and average 266.7 passing YPG. The Monarchs rank 114th in opponents’ completion percentage at 64.9%, 100th in completions and 86th in passing YPG allowed. Those numbers come against a soft schedule of teams that don’t pass well too. These offenses both rank top 50 in yards per play offensively and ODU is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. App State isn’t slow either as they average a play run every 24.87 seconds which is 44th fastest. Easy call on the Over in this one. |
|||||||
10-21-23 | UTSA v. Florida Atlantic +3 | Top | 36-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team. |
|||||||
10-21-23 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -12 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout. |
|||||||
10-20-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Friday at 5:07 PM ET - This is high-intensity playoff baseball now with this ALCS now tied up at 2 games apiece as the Astors have rallied from down 2-0 to take both the games here in Arlington to tie this series up. That makes this a very critical Game 5 match-up and you have the same pitchers involved that we saw in Game 1 of this series. That game was a 2-0 Rangers win and, in all likelihood, this will be another tight low-scoring battle here! Verlander and Montgomery were great in that Game 1 battle and we expect more of the same here. Again, you are talking about both lineups possibly being a little tight at the plate in this one. With the series tied up at 2, there is a lot of pressure with the importance of taking this Game 5 as it is a "swing game" in the series. The 3-2 series lead is so critical in a 7-game series. Off 3 straight games that have totaled at least 9 runs with the last two totaling 13 runs each. However, this total is set at 8.5 with good reason. These lineups combined for only 11 hits in Game 1 and we anticipate another pitchers duel here as both Verlander and Montgomery have looked great in their multiple outings in this post-season. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
|||||||
10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -116 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints -115 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Jags QB Lawrence has a banged up knee and may not play in this game. They just moved QB Nathan Rourke up from the practice squad so he is available on Thursday night. That might be a sign that Lawrence may not play or at the very least is not close to 100%. Either way we like this spot for the host Saints. The Jags are in a terrible situational spot for this game. They spent 2 weeks in London, came back and played the following Sunday at home vs Indy and now are on the road again on a short week. Many of the Jacksonville players were commenting on how tough it was physically to come back from a longer than normal stint in London and have to play right away the following weekend. How are they going to feel now away from home on a short week coming right after that? The Jags are overvalued right now in our mind. They won both games on London but were outgained in both on a YPP basis 5.0 to 4.7 vs the Falcons and 7.2 to 5.8 vs the Bills. The same thing happened last week as they were outgained by a full 1.0 YPP vs the Colts and won. Turnovers have been key as the Jaguars have a +6 TO margin in those 3 games alone. They have a takeaway on 20.3% of their opponents possessions this year which is 2nd in the NFL. Can that continue? It’s going to be tough to keep up that pace on turnovers which has helped them immensely this season. The Saints are coming off a loss @ Houston in a game they outplayed the Texans soundly. New Orleans put up 430 total yards in the loss to just 297 for Houston. Mistakes were the difference in that one as the Saints missed 2 FG’s, were shut out on downs at the Houston 15 yard line, and threw an interception at the Houston 24 yard line. The Jags offense has been held under 5.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games and they are possibly without their QB facing a New Orleans defense that allows only 4.6 YPP (4th best in the NFL). For the season, New Orleans are 3-3 with a YPP differential of +0.04 (14th in the NFL) and a point differential of +13. Jacksonville is 4-2 yet their YPP differential is -0.75 which is 26th in the NFL with a point differential of +20. The Saints are sitting right about where we’d expect with those numbers while Jacksonville is vastly overvalued as we stated earlier. Lay the small money line price with New Orleans at home. |
|||||||
10-19-23 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:03 PM ET - Our money is on the Rangers to bounce back here after losing Game 3 at home yesterday. Texas had won all 7 of their post-season games before that loss. Andrew Heaney expected to start for Texas in this one and he held the Astros to only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 15 innings in his first 3 starts against them this season. Then he struggled some in the final start versus Houston so he is out for redemption here and we see him getting that! Heaney had a solid outing, though not long, against the Orioles in the divisional round and we expect another solid effort here. We also look for Jose Urquidy to struggle here. He missed a lot of this season so Urquidy also missed facing the Rangers but in his last two starts against them, both last season, he allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings! Urquidy has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Texas! The Rangers were 51-31 at home this season prior to yesterday's loss. Our computer math model shows a high probability the home team gets the win here in Game 4. Take the Rangers |
|||||||
10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall OVER 49 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
#313/314 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – James Madison vs Marshall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - JMU’s offense has been on a tear averaging 35 PPG on the season. If you take out their game vs a top notch Troy defense (16-14 final score), the Dukes have scored more than 30 in every other game with an average of 38 PPG. They should have big time success here vs a Marshall defense that has allowed 35, 48, and 41 points over their last 3 games and 2 of those opponents rank 84th (Old Dominion) and 109th (NC State) in total offense. The Herd defense put up solid numbers in their first 3 games of the season but their opponents were University of Albany (FCS), East Carolina (127th in scoring), and Virginia Tech (78th in scoring). Marshall is going to have to put points on the board to keep up in this game. We think they will. They are averaging 420 YPG and just over 30 PPG. The Herd offense is trending up with 106 points scored in their last 3 games (35 PPG) while averaging 447 total yards vs 3 defense that combined to allow an average of 380 YPG. Marshall’s strength offensively is throwing the ball averaging 265 YPG and completing almost 69% of their passes (21st nationally). They are facing a JMU defense who’s weakness is defending the pass allowing 310 YPG through the air which ranks them 129th out of 133 teams. Last week they “held” a potent Georgia Southern offense to 13 points, however the Eagles threw for over 300 yards but threw 3 interceptions in JMU territory including at the 15 and 23 yard line. GSU had plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. Marshall games are averaging 59 total points this season and JMU games are averaging 56 total points. This is set to low and we like the Over. |
|||||||
10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 9 Runs – Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:03 PM ET - The Astros Cristian Javier has great stuff when he is on and, though he issued some walks, his stuff looked great in his first start of this post-season against the Twins. This followed him finishing up the regular season with allowing just 4 earned runs in 15.2 innings.over his last 3 starts. Overall, Javier has now allowed only 10 hits in his last 20.2 innings on the mound! We also are looking for a strong start from Max Scherzer. Here you have a veteran hurler pitching at home and looking for redemption for his lone post-season start with the Mets last season being an ugly one. Also looking to redeem himself after his most recent appearance against the Astros was an ugly one after Scherzer had a stellar outing in his start against Houston that preceded that one. Scherzer is coming back from a minor shoulder injury here so he may not work deep but we like this Rangers bullpen to also shut the door at home after a little bit of shakiness in hanging on in the Rangers 5-4 win at Houston in Game 2 of this series. That game did reach 9 runs (which is also the posted total on this game) but 6 of the Astros last 9 road games have totaled 8 or less runs. Those 9 road games have actually averaged only 6.8 runs per game! The Rangers 10 of last 12 games have totaled 8 or less runs and those 10 games averaged only 5.5 runs per game. We feel we have some excellent line value here as this total is inflated due to the big runs that were scored in the last regular season series here between these teams which was last month and saw the Astros sweep with huge run totals. This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. |
|||||||
10-18-23 | Florida International v. Sam Houston State -5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State. |
|||||||
10-17-23 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
#75 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line (-1.5 goals -115) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - The Hurricanes are highly motivated after their first loss of the season and we knew we were going to come with a strong play here after that Canes loss. This Carolina team is again loaded this season while it looks like San Jose will be one of the weakest teams in the league again this season. Last season the Sharks finished with the fewest wins (22 out of 82 games) in the entire league while the Hurricanes were 2nd to only the Bruins in terms of best record in the entire league as the latter had a historical regular season. So far this season the Sharks are 0-1-1 but they should be 0-2-0 with two blowout losses as they lost their opener 4 to 1 and then lost their 2nd game by only 2-1 in the shootout but they were outshot in the game 52 to 21. Complete dominance! Speaking of dominance, a key to this play is that Carolina has already scored an average of 4.3 games in regulation time of their 3 games. This is a dangerous Hurricanes offensive attack once again. The Sharks, on the other hand, have scored just 1 goal in each of their first two games this season! Carolina is sure to respond off the Saturday loss and San Jose had seen 8 of their last 9 losses (dating back to last season) come by 2 or more goals before they were fortunate to hang around in the 2-1 loss to Colorado Saturday. They will not be so fortunate here against a determined and highly motivated road team. The Canes are a massive money line favorite (-300 on the road!) for a reason here and you can also see why the odds suggest a good probability that the winner of this game in San Jose will win it by 2 or more goals. Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Carolina at a very reasonable low price in this one is the value play here. |
|||||||
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET - Merrill Kelly expected to start for the Diamondbacks and he is coming off 6 innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card round. Also, Kelly has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts! This looks like a pitchers duel because Aaron Nola has great stuff and the veteran Phillies hurler has looked like vintage Nola of late! Nola loves pitching at home and he enters this game already 2-0 in the post-season and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts overall. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been great in this post-season and the Dbacks bullpen also has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona fans so far in the playoffs. The reality is, the way these starting pitchers are going, neither team may need much bullpen here either! Overall, in terms of post-season trending so far, even though there were some bigger runs scored yesterday, if you look at all 3 ALCS/NLCS games so far they have averaged just 13 hits per game. So each team averaged about 6 or 7 hits per game. This one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
|||||||
10-17-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty UNDER 57 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 57 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Liberty, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - MTSU has been facing all out passing teams as of late and that is their weakness defensively. 3 of their last 4 opponents are pass first offenses (CSU, La Tech, and WKY all rank 110th or lower in rush offense) while MTSU’s defense ranks outside the top 110 in pass defense. Now they face a Liberty offense that runs the ball more than pretty much anyone in the country. The Flames are 4th nationally in rush attempts per game and rushing play percentage. First of all that eats clock and secondly MTSU has been very solid vs the run. They are allowing 135 YPG rushing and only 3.9 YPC. Only 1 team has topped 200 yards on the ground vs the Blue Raider defense and that was Alabama in their season opener. They held SEC opponent Missouri to just 2.4 YPC and Jacksonville State (14th nationally in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. Liberty will have success but we don’t think it will be easy. Offensively MTSU is not great to say the least. They rank 79th in YPP and 108th in scoring averaging only 22 PPG. Those numbers look even worse consider their last 5 opponents have been Murray State (FCS), Colorado State (131st in total defense), Western Kentucky (128th in total defense), Jacksonville St (67th in total defense), and La Tech (64th in total defense). Now they face a Liberty stop unit that ranks 18th nationally in total defense and 24th in YPP allowed. The Flames are giving up only 17 PPG and they’ve allowed just 35 total points their last 3 games. MTSU will struggle on offense in this one. Because they are primarily a running team, Liberty is very slow paced (117th in pace) as they like get ahead and control the tempo. That’s how we see this game playing out. Liberty games are averaging 53 total points per game and MTSU games are averaging 54 total points, both less than this current number. We see this game ending the high 40’s making Under the play. |
|||||||
10-16-23 | Cowboys -125 v. Chargers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys -125 @ LA Chargers, Monday 8:15 PM ET - We will back the much better defense and Cowboys who are off an embarrassing loss to the 49ers last week. Dallas comes into this game ranked 8th in DVOA defense and the strength of the unit is their pass D which is the Chargers strength offensively. Dallas allows opposing QB’s to complete just 60.2% of their pass attempts which is 6th best in the league. The Cowboys hold opponents to 169 passing yards per game which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chargers have the advantage offensively with a unit that is 5th in total yards per game gained and yards per play but this will be the best defense by far that they have faced this season. None of the Chargers opponents rank higher than 19th in the NFL in defensive DVOA so their offensive numbers are a bit misleading. Under Coach McCarthy the Cowboys are 10-1 ATS when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of +17.4PPG. Back the Boys here. |
|||||||
10-16-23 | Rangers +115 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +115 over Houston Astros, Monday at 4:37 PM ET - Many will jump on the Astros here thinking they simply can not fall into an 0-2 hole in this series by losing each of the first two games at home. However, this Rangers team is hungrier and sure looks like the better team in this match-up. Texas really has come a long way and it looks like it finally could be a changing of the guard in the Lone Star state. The Rangers got the 2-0 win yesterday and should dominate much more today! They have a big pitching edge with Nathan Eovaldi over Framber Valdez. Keep in mind, Houston actually had a losing record at home this season! The Astros certainly have not found their home field to be a fortress this year by any stretch of the imagination! As for the Rangers, their confidence has grown game by game as they finished the season strong and carried that momentum right into the post-season. Texas won 8 of their last 12 regular season games including 8 of 11 to wrap up their post-season berth before the regular season finale. Now in the post-season the Rangers have won 6 straight games! In 5 of those 6 victories they have allowed a total of only 4 runs or average of 0.80 runs per game! They are dominating with starters and bullpen! Speaking of that dominance, Eovaldi went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season and is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA so far in the post-season. The Astros Framber Valdez went just 4-8 at home this season and also enters this start off 3 straight rough outings! His final 2 of the regular season carried right into struggles in a 3rd straight game as his post-season outing was a loss to the Twins in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings! Look for a 4th straight rough outing for Valdez here and the Texas win streak continues and moves to 7 in a row! Take the Rangers |
|||||||
10-15-23 | Lions -3 v. Bucs | Top | 20-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
#267 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -3 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - TB has been a surprise with a 3-1 record to start the season. However a deep dive reveals they are +7 in turnover margin in their 3 wins who have come vs Minnesota, Chicago, and New Orleans who have a combined record of 5-10. Despite their winning record, the Bucs are getting outgained on a YPP basis this season. The one good team they’ve faced was Philadelphia who rolled TB 25-11 and outgained them by 2.1 YPP and that game was in Tampa. The Lions had a lot of publicity coming into the season and we were wary of this team. Mainly on the defensive side of the ball after finishing 30th or lower in YPP allowed in each of the last 3 seasons. They’ve proven us wrong so far this season as this Detroit team looks very good on both sides of the ball. They are one of two teams that currently ranks inside the top 6 in both total offense and total defense. The other is San Francisco. DVOA has Detroit ranked as the 3rd best team in the NFL behind only San Francisco and Buffalo. They are ranked the 4th best offense and 3rd best defense per DVOA. The Lions only loss was in OT vs Seattle and the Lions outgained the Seahawks 6.5 YPP to 5.9 YPP in that game but had 3 turnovers (0 for Seattle). Detroit has one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL at +1.1 and they’ve been a money making juggernaut covering 13 of their last 15 games dating back to last season. Lay the FG here. |
|||||||
10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis Colts +4 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for Jacksonville. They just played back to back weeks in London so they’ve been overseas for 2 weeks. Coming home to play the next Sunday will be tough as the body clocks will take until mid week to adjust back. Also, being away for 2 weeks and then coming home is a distraction in itself having to get caught up on things back at home, seeing family again, etc… The Jags were 2-0 in their London trip but they were outgained in both games on a YPP basis vs Atlanta and Buffalo. In their win over the Falcons the Jaguars were gifted with 3 Atlanta turnovers, including a 61 yard pick 6, but Jacksonville only averaged 4.7 YPP. Last week vs Buffalo, they caught the Bills in a perfect spot after rolling over Miami a week earlier in a huge AFC East game. Then the Bills waited until Friday to travel to London while Jax had been their for a week plus already. Even with that, the Bills averaged 7.2 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.8. The Jags are 0-2 SU & ATS at home this year where they have very little home field advantage. As a starting QB, Trevor Lawrence is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite winning only 1 of those games outright. Indy is playing well right now. They’ve won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss coming vs the Rams in OT in a game the Colts ran 20 fewer offensive snaps and still took LA to overtime. These 2 met in the first game of the season and while Jacksonville won 31-21, the Colts were starting rookie QB Richardson in his first every start and Indy led 21-17 with just over 5 minutes remaining in the game. Both teams are 3-2 on the season but the Colts have a better point differential (although very close) and a better YPP differential. We think Indy has a very good shot at the upset and if not, we’re getting some generous points. |
|||||||
10-14-23 | Boise State v. Colorado State OVER 60 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
#183/184 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 60 Points – Boise State vs Colorado State, Saturday at 9:45 PM ET - We were on CSU vs Utah State Over last week and while the Rams offense didn’t perform as we expected, their defense did. CSU allowed the Aggies to roll up 44 points on 639 total yards! That side of the ball will be another huge concern here vs a Boise offense that can be every bit as explosive as Utah State. The Broncos have now topped 30 points in 4 straight games and their QB rotation of Green (dangerous dual threat) and Madsen (solid passer) has been tough to defend the last 2 games alone putting up 67 total points and over 1,000 yards! Boise’s offense has been a thorn in CSU’s side to say the least scoring an average of 42.3 PPG over the last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome on Saturday. The problem the Broncos have had is on the other side of the ball. Their defense stinks. They rank 132nd (out of 133) allowing opponents to average almost 7.0 YPP. They’re terrible defending the pass ranking 125th nationally which is a big problem here facing a CSU offense that averaged 352 YPG through the air (4th best in the country). Boise is allowing 34 PPG on the season including giving up 31 points on 439 total yards to a bad San Diego State offense that ranks 122nd in scoring and averages 16 PPG. The only team that didn’t reach at least 27 points on this defense was UCF who had 18 points but also ripped off 530 total yards of offense which would normally yield 35 points based on UCF’s yards per point numbers this season. The Rams offense had one of the worst performances last week at USU and the game still almost hit 70 total points. They only ran 52 offensive plays in the game (Utah State ran 84 plays) and turned the ball over 5 times. CSU had 17 points in the first quarter and either turned the ball over on downs or had a turnover on 4 of their final 5 possessions. Prior to last week the Rams has scored at least 30 points in 3 straight games and we expect them to top that again here. Weather looks good in Fort Collins for Saturday night and we expect both teams to get into the 30’s here. Take the Over. |
|||||||
10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
#189/190 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – UCLA vs Oregon State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers continue to set UCLA totals too high (4-1 Under this season) as this is not the offensive juggernaut and poor defensive team they’ve been the last few seasons. In fact, the Bruins are now the exact opposite. Defense is absolutely the strength of this team. UCLA’s stop unit ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and YPC allowed. They have not given up more than 17 points in any game this season and they’ve allowed a grand total of 5 offensive TD’s in 5 games this season! Last week they held a very potent Washington State, who came into the game averaging 40 PPG on 472 YPG, to just 10 offensive points on 216 total yards. Offensively the Bruins are breaking in a new freshman QB Moore and vs FBS teams this season they are only averaging 23 PPG, more than 2 full TD’s down from last year’s numbers. And this year’s numbers have come against 3 defenses ranked 91st, 92nd, and 117th in total defense. The only good defense UCLA has faced is Utah (ranked 22nd in total defense) and the Utes held them to 7 points. Saturday’s opponent, Oregon State, will be the 2nd best defense UCLA has faced this season at 39th nationally. Oregon State’s offense has had some high scoring outputs but similarly to UCLA, they haven’t played a great slate of defenses. They’ve faced just 1 stop unit ranked in the top 60 in total defense this season and that was Utah once again (ranked 22nd) and that game ended 21-7 in favor of Oregon State. With the spread at -3.5 to -4 in favor of the Beavers, the final projected score in this game is in the 29-25 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals. Under here. |
|||||||
10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it. |
|||||||
10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State OVER 57 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show |
#179/180 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57 Points – Fresno State vs Utah State, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the CSU vs Utah State Over last week and cashed nicely. We’re coming right back on the Over with USU at home again this week. The Aggies offense is humming right now to say the least. They put up 44 points last week on 639 total yards and were quite balanced doing it (387 yards passing / 252 yards rushing). In their last 3 games the USU offense has tallied 114 points (39 PPG) on nearly 1,600 total yards. Senior QB Legas, who began the season as the starter, stepped in for an injured Hillestad and has been outstanding with almost 600 yards passing and 7 TD’s in the last 6 quarters! They’re taking on a Fresno defense that’s not nearly as good as their overall numbers in our opinion. They rank in the top 15 in total defense but they’ve faced just an atrocious set of offenses to date. They’ve faced 4 FBS offenses this season that rank outside the top 95 in total offense including 3 that rank 110th or lower. That includes a Kent offense that ranks dead last nationally in many categories including total offense. The best FBS offense they’ve faced this season is Purdue (63rd in total offense) who hit them for 35 points. FCS Eastern Washington also had 30+ points on this defense. We look for USU to be successful putting points on the board. The Aggies will be the highest ranked offense Fresno has faced this season. Fresno’s offense should be successful as well. The Bulldogs had scored at least 27 points in every game this season prior to last week’s 19 point output vs a very good Wyoming defense that struggled with Texas & Texas Tech but has shut everyone else down. The USU defense ranks outside the top 100 allowing 33 PPG and they’ve allowed at least 24 points in every game this year including vs Iowa and UConn who rank 131st and 108th respectively in total offense. Because they are so potent offensively and struggle on defense USU games are averaging 70 total points this season. These teams have combined to play 12 games this season and 9 have gone Over the total and we expect another high scoring game on Friday Night. |
|||||||
10-12-23 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 47 Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 PM ET - This line opened 51 at some books and was quickly bet down to the current number. We will grab that added value and side with the Bookmakers number in this AFC West rivalry. Let’s start with the Broncos defense that has the worst statistical DVOA numbers in the HISTORY of the NFL. The Bronco give up over 450YPG (32nd), 7.2YPP (32nd), 187RYPG (30th) and 5.9-yards per rush (32nd). They allow opposing QB’s to complete 77.3% of their pass attempts, also last in the NFL, and give up 11.1 yards per competition. Now consider this. Those horrific overall numbers, but specifically passing stats come against four of five bad QB’s in: Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Jimmy Garappolo. Now they face Patrick Mahomes who is arguably the best QB in the game and a guy building a Hall of Fame resume. KC owns a top ranked offense in many statistical categories including: Yards Per Game, Yards Per Play, Rushing Yards per attempt etc… The Chiefs are averaging 25.6PPG, while the Broncos are allowing 36.2PPG. The Broncos are allowing 1 point scored per every 12.4 yards gained by opponents. Based on the fact KC averages 381YPG that translates to 30.7 points for the Chiefs. Denver is going to score here too. They average 328YPG but more importantly, 6.1YPP which rates 5th best in the NFL. They average 4.9 Yards per rush (4th) and are 13th in overall passing yards per game. They own the 10th highest scoring offense in the NFL at 24.2PPG and rank 7th best in Yards Per Point at 13.0. Last season these two teams combined for 51 and 64 total points in the two meetings. Bet this number before the line trends back up. |
|||||||
10-12-23 | SMU v. East Carolina UNDER 49.5 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
#117/118 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – SMU vs East Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU’s offense is bad. They have not topped 14 offensive points in any game this season with the exception of their game vs FCS Gardner Webb. The Pirates did have 28 points vs App State, however 14 of those points came from defensive fumble returns for TD’s. Minus their game vs Gardner Webb, the Pirates are averaging just 4.2 YPP which ranks them 129th nationally out of 133 teams. They’ll be facing an SMU defense that has been very good this season allowing opponents to average only 4.9 YPP ranking them in the top 30. The only team that really played well vs SMU offensively was TCU who put up 34 points. Even when they faced Oklahoma, the Mustangs defense held the Sooners to 28 points and 365 total yards which was a season low in yardage for OU. We expect ECU to struggle again on offense. On the other side of the ball, SMU’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive as it was last season. They are averaging just 25 PPG vs FBS opponents after putting up 36 PPG last season. On a YPP basis the Stangs rank just 73rd averaging 5.3 after ranking in the top 35 last year at 5.9 YPP. ECU’s defense has at least been respectable, unlike their offense, ranking 72nd nationally allowing 387 YPG despite playing very good offenses Michigan & App State so far this season. ECU games have topped 50 total points only once in 5 games this season. SMU games have topped 52 points only once in 5 games this season. With SMU tabbed as a 12 point favorite the projected score is right around 31-19 range. We don’t see either team reaching those totals so we’ll go Under in this one. |
|||||||
10-11-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
#937/938 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 9:07 PM ET - Bradon Pfaadt got rocked by the Brewers at Milwaukee to open up his post-season. Pfaadt is a rookie that struggled quite often this season and that was particularly true against playoff-caliber teams. The Dodgers are one of the top teams in baseball even though down 2-0 in this series and they should hammer Pfaadt here just like they did in the regular season meetings with him. The good news for Diamondbacks fans here is that Arizona has been swinging hot bats and should match LA run for run in this one. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in winning all 4 games this post-season. The Dodgers are starting Lance Lynn and the veteran has post-season experience of course but he is just not the same pitcher he once was. Lynn was rejuvenated by coming to the Dodgers from the White Sox soon after the All Star break. However, his ERA went back up in September compared to August and walks and homers were an issue. Now he faces a red hot Arizona lineup that is loaded with confidence. Lynn gave up 26 homers in his 16 road starts this season and that includes 6 in his most recent 3 road starts for the Dodgers. Overall, Lynn was rocked in 2 of his last 3 road starts. Also, his last 2 starts against teams that ended up making the post-season - Marlins and Braves - saw him allow a combined 15 earned runs in 9 innings! The Dbacks will stay hot at the plate here but the Dodgers are in do or die mode and have the confidence of having already given Pfaadt a lot of trouble this season and the rookie struggles again here. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this late evening match-up Wednesday |
|||||||
10-11-23 | UTEP v. Florida International -123 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 33 m | Show |
#108 ASA PLAY ON FIU pick-em over UTEP, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET - UTEP has only 1 win on the season vs Incarnate Word and we don’t expect them to get their 2nd on the road on Wednesday. Too many injury issues including QB where as of this writing on Tuesday, 4th stringer McConnell is expected to get the nod. Starting QB Hardison has an injury to his throwing arm and has not practiced since getting injured on September 23rd. The 2nd and 3rd string QB’s are both in concussion protocol. It also looks like top WR Smith won’t play here due to a leg injury. Even when they were healthy at QB, the Miners 5 losses have come by an average of 17 PPG. Now with McConnell playing in his 2nd career game (he was 4 of 11 for 48 yards passing last week in relief) we don’t think UTEP does enough on offense to win this game on the road. FIU is no great shakes but they do have a 3-3 record with their wins coming vs Maine, UConn, and North Texas. However they are relatively healthy compared to UTEP and freshman QB Jenkins (had an offer from Auburn) has been improving each week. He got his first start vs Maine, FIU is 3-2 with him at QB, and he’s thrown for over 1,200 yards. The Panthers only 2 losses with Jenkins at QB have come vs Liberty (currently 5-0 prior to Tuesday night’s game) and New Mexico State, a game that was tied in the 4th quarter and the yardage was close to even. Neither team has great stats, as to be expected, however FIU has the better YPP differential at -0.3 compared to UTEP’s -1.0. It’s always dangerous laying points (or pick-em) on the road with a program that has not been successful away from home and that fits UTEP here. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Miners have a SU record of 6-39 in road games. We like FIU to win this one at home. |
|||||||
10-10-23 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee State -145 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
#104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -145 over La Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Interesting the team with the 1-5 record (MTSU) is favored over the team with the 3-4 record (LaTech). Hmmm. We actually have the Blue Raiders as a larger favorite in our power ratings (-4.5) so we feel there is value on the host here. MTSU has played the much tougher schedule already facing 2 SEC teams (Alabama & Mizzou) along with solid opponents Colorado State, Jacksonville State, and Western Kentucky. Despite their record MTSU’s YPG differential is dead even which tells us this team should be right around .500 rather than a 1 win team. They played toe to toe with Missouri on the road losing 23-19 and only getting outgained by 30 yards. The Raiders have outgained 3 of their last 4 opponents and in their most recent game, a home loss vs a 5-1 Jacksonville State team, they led 23-7 at half and outgained the Gamecocks 563 to 401. Four 2nd half turnovers, including a defensive TD for Jacksonville State, killed them in that game. They were actually favored by -3 in that game (same number in tonight’s game) vs a Gamecock team we have rated 3 points better than tonight’s opponent, La Tech. Speaking of the Bulldogs, they have played one of the weakest SOS’s in the country (130th) and their 3 wins have come vs FIU, Northwestern State, and UTEP. That’s an FCS team who has yet to win a game, and 2 FBS teams we have power rated in our bottom 10 teams in the country including one that had to play without their starting QB (UTEP). We were on La Tech at home last week vs an overvalued Western Kentucky team in what we felt was a great spot to grab them as a dog and while they game ended up 35-28, the Bulldogs were down 35-7 at half and allowed almost 7.0 YPP. Interestingly, Louisiana Tech was +6.5 in that game at home and just one week earlier MTSU traveled to Western Kentucky and the line was the same at +6.5. Based on those lines, that tells us this MTSU should be favored by around 6 points vs La Tech on a neutral field and we’re getting them a full FG less than that at home. The Bulldogs are on a short week (played last Thursday) and on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. MTSU has had an extra day to prepare (played last Wednesday) and is at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks including their 2nd of back to back home games. We like the Blue Raiders to win and cover at home. |