Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side. Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last 5 games. 57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS +2 vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 8:20 PM ET - This is one of those ‘plug your nose’ bets as the Giants have not looked good this season and currently stand 1-2 SU. Clearly a big reason for that losing record is the schedule they’ve faced with games against the Cowboys, 49ers and a better-than-expected Cardinals team. Dallas and San Francisco are arguably the two of the best defenses in the league along with the Browns. So, when you look at the Giants offensive numbers it’s understandable why they are so disappointing. Seattle on the other hand has faced a soft schedule with the Panthers, Rams and Lions. The win in Detroit is solid but the Lions were off a huge MNF win against the Chiefs and simply overlooked this Seahawks team that lost to the Rams in the opener. The Seahawks are 24th in the league in sacks per game and 29th in sack % defense. They don’t possess a pass rush capable of getting to Giants QB Jones. The Giants can get to Hawks QB Smith as the Seattle offensive line has been hit hard with injuries. The Yards Per Play differential for the Giants is not a pretty number as they are minus -1.1YPP, but again look at who they’ve faced. Seattle also has a negative differential as they average 5.6YPP on offense but allow 5.8YPP. Seattle has been a road favorite just 5 times since 2021 and they shouldn’t be laying points here. |
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10-01-23 | Patriots v. Cowboys UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Defense is the strength of both teams in this one. Dallas was lights out their first 2 games allowing 10 total points but had a letdown last week @ Arizona. After that poor performance we expect them to be very motivated at home in this one. The Boys are allowing only 4.8 YPP on the season and teams are averaging only 25 yards per drive which is 3rd best defensive mark in the NFL. They are facing a pedestrian New England offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any game yet this season. Against a similar high level defense last week, the Pats scored only 13 offensive points (vs Jets). New England is NOT explosive offense with only 1.4% of their offensive snaps gaining 20 yards or more – worst in the league. Defensively New England has been very good. They held the potent Miami attack to just 24 points – Fins scored 36 and 70 in their other 2 games. For the season, including the Miami game, the Patriots are allowing only 4.4 YPP which is 4th best in the NFL. Only 18% of opponents drives have reached the redzone or score prior to that vs New England’s defense. That’s the 2nd best rate in the NFL. Belichick knows defense, no doubt about that. Our projections have this as a low scoring game and we’ll grab the Under here. |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
#255 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -4.5 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - All 0-3 teams are not created equal. Both teams 0-3 but Vikes could easily be 3-0 with 3 losses by combined 13 points. In their first 2 games of the season Minnesota outgained both TB & Philly by more than +1.0 YPP. Last week’s 4 point home loss to the Chargers also could easily have gone Minnesota’s way as their final 2 drives they were shut out on downs at Chargers 2 yard line and then threw a pick in the end zone. The main problem has been turnovers. The Vikes are minus 7 turnovers worst differential in NFL. Offensively they’ve been really good ranking 2nd in the NFL in YPP and 3rd in total offense (over 400 per game) and 82% of their scoring plays have been TD’s so they can score. That will be a problem for Carolina as we do not envision the Panthers keeping up on the scoreboard in this game. Panther QB Bryce Young comes back on Sunday which is a plus for Minnesota as backup Andy Dalton actually gives them a better chance to win right now. The Panther offense has been bad with Young under center scoring only 2 offensive TD’s this season and averaging just 4.1 YPP. Young makes ver few big plays with Young ranking dead last in yards per pass attempt (a lot of short passes). Despite their winless record, the Vikings have a positive YPP differential (+0.6) while Carolina is getting outgained regularly (-0.6 YPP differential). If Minnesota can straighten out their turnover issues, they should win this game comfortably. |
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09-30-23 | South Carolina v. Tennessee OVER 59.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
#137/138 ASA PLAY ON Over 59.5 Points – South Carolina vs Tennessee, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - FAST! That’s what this game is going to be like with more than the normal number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee is the 2nd fastest paced team in college football with a play run every 19.8 seconds. South Carolina prefers to play fast also with the 19th fastest paced offense. The Vols run 73 plays per game, SC runs 70.3 which are both more than average in college football. Last year when these two teams met, they produced 101 total points and over 1,100 total yards of offense. The Gamecocks offense with QB Rattler can move the chains as evidenced by their 8th ranked passing offense averaging 340PYPG. He is completing 73.4% of his pass attempts at a 9.8 yards/attempt clip and owns the 15th best QB rating in college football. Tennessee has impressive pass defense statistics, but they haven’t faced a team that ranks higher than 50th in passing yards per game. The Vols are going to put up points in this game against a suspect Gamecocks defense. SoutH Carolina just gave up 30-points to Mississippi State and over 500-total yards of offense to the Bulldogs. The week before they gave up just 24-points to Georgia which was misleading considering the Dawgs had 470-total yards of offense. Tennessee is 24th in YPG, 31st in YPP at 6.6 and average 35PPG. The Vols tend to score more at home as they average 45PPG at home since 2021 and last season they scored 53.7PPG at home. This game has a shootout written all over it. |
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09-30-23 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
#146 ASA TOP PLAY ON Georgia Southern -6.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Georgia Southern has been very impressive this year under HC Clay Helton (former USC head coach) with a 3-1 record. Their only loss on the season was @ Wisconsin and GSU actually outplayed the Badgers in that one (more first downs & total yardage) but had 6 turnovers (0 for Wisconsin) in that setback. They bounced back nicely after that loss trouncing Ball State on the road 40-3 last Saturday. The Eagles offense has been tough to stop ranking 18th nationally in YPG and 7th in yards passing. Tulsa transfer QB Brin has completed 73% of his passes this year for 1,300 yards in just 4 games. If he can avoid the turnover, the GSU team will be very tough to beat. Brin does have 7 interceptions on the season, but again 5 came in one game vs Wisconsin. The defense has improved dramatically over last season allowing 334 YPG so far this season after allowing over 500 YPG a year ago. Coastal has taken a step back as we expected. They had a turnover on the coaching staff with their head coach moving onto Liberty. The Chanticleers are 2-2 on the season coming off a 30-17 home loss vs Georgia State. Their only 2 wins have come vs FCS Duquesne and Jacksonville State. This will be their first road game in almost a month and GSU has been waiting for this one. The Eagles went to Coastal last year and almost pulled the upset losing 34-30. GSU led by 10 in the 4th quarter in that game but allowed CC to score TD’s on each of their final 3 possessions. If we subtract games vs FCS teams this year, GSU still has a +0.6 YPP differential while Coastal is -0.8 YPP. The Eagles could have easily won on the road last year vs Coastal and we have upgraded GSU this year while the Chanticleers have clearly taken a step back. We’ll side with Georgia Southern at home. |
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09-29-23 | Cincinnati v. BYU UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points – Cincinnati vs BYU, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - BYU held their first 2 opponents to 16 combined points and it looks like they may have regressed allowing 31 and 38 points in their last 2 games vs Arkansas and Kansas. Not the case in our opinion. A closer look reveals they only gave up 24 offensive points in each of those 2 games vs high level offenses. KU last week scored 2 defensive TD’s and was held to just 351 total yards by this BYU defense. A week earlier Arkansas had an 88 yard punt return in the box score. We expect defensive success here for BYU vs a Cincinnati offense that has scored 30 total points in their last 2 games vs Miami OH & Oklahoma. If we subtract their 66 point effort vs FCS Eastern Kentucky, the Bearcats are averaging just 19 PPG under their new head coach Satterfield and new OC Brendel who came over from Va Tech who finished 118th in scoring last season. So while we feel BYU will have the edge when Cincy has the ball, we feel the Bearcats will have the same advantage when they are on defense. BYU’s offense averages just 4.5 YPP (109th nationally) this season vs their 3 FBS teams they’ve faced. While it looks like their offense has lit it up the last 2 weeks scoring 38 points vs Arkansas and 31 vs Kansas, the fact is they had 280 total yards vs the Razors and 366 vs KU. They were extremely fortunate to score the points they did based on their offensive yardage output. They face a solid Cincy defense that has allowed 21 points or less in 3 of their 4 games including holding Oklahoma to 20 points last Saturday. That’s an Oklahoma offense that averaged 58 PPG in their first 3 games of the season. Neither offense is fast paced (both middle of the pack in seconds per play) both struggle to convert on 3rd downs (both outside the top 90) which makes it difficult to extend drives. We like the Under here on Friday Night. |
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09-29-23 | Red Sox +125 v. Orioles | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox +115/+120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles did it with yesterday's win over these Red Sox. They clinched the AL East and that is their first division title in nearly a decade. We do not expect much from this Baltimore bunch today after such an emotional win yesterday and all the celebrating that followed last night. That said, there is excellent underdog line value with Boston here. The Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the mound and he has a 3.08 ERA this month with opponents hitting just .208 against him. Pivetta has an edge here in that the Orioles have not seen him yet this season and when he last pitched here in August at Baltimore he struck out 9 in 6 innings. Pivetta has had good success against them each of the last two times he has faced them and the O's bats could be a little sleepy here after last night's celebration. The Orioles send John Means to the mound and he had missed much of this season as well as much of last season. Though he has pitched well in limited action since coming back, Means could be limited tonight as now the Orioles are just in "tune-up mode" for the post-season. They will want to be careful with Means here. Keep in mind he is coming back from Tommy John surgery and this will be just his 5th start since the 2021 season ended and they want him healthy and strong for the playoffs. The value is on the Red Sox in this one and Boston is currently available at a solid underdog price range of +115 to +120. |
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09-28-23 | Lions -1.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Detroit Lions -1.5 at Green Bay Packers, Thursday 8:15PM ET - One big advantage the Lions have over the Packers in this game is their offensive line is much better than Green Bay’s. The Packers are without two starters on the O-line here in Bakhtiari and Jenkins who provide valuable protection for QB Love and running lanes for RB Jones. Green Bay will get Aaron Jones and WR Watson back for this game, but it may not matter if Love doesn’t have time to throw the football. Detroit allows just 4.6YPP this season which is 6th best in the NFL. The Lions are giving up just 3.2 yards per rush attempt which is 5th best in the league. In comparison, the Packers allow 4.3 yards per rush (18th) and 5.0YPP overall which is 16th. Offensively, the Lions have an edge here too with one of the better O-lines in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 5.8YPP (7th best) versus Green Bay who averages 5.0YPP (16th). These two teams both faced the Falcons this season. Detroit dominated the Falcons in a 20-6 win with 358 total yards to 183 and a YPP advantage of 7.4YPP to 3.1YPP. Green Bay faced this same Atlanta team the week before (lost 24-25) and gave up 446 total yards to the Birds, 5.7YPP while gaining just 224 total yards themselves at 5.4YPP. Detroit has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Packers and even though Love has played well, we like the veteran QB Goff and the Lions in this one. Detroit is on a 14-6 ATS streak dating back to the start of last season and cash the ticket here. |
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09-28-23 | Jacksonville State v. Sam Houston State UNDER 36.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
#107/108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 36.5 Points – Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - We realize this total is very low for a college game but it’s warranted in our opinion. Sam Houston State’s offense is bad and there is no other way around that. They have scored a total of 10 points in 3 games this year and they rank dead last in CFB in total offense averaging just 148 YPG. Yes you read that correctly. The Bearkats have 24 total first downs in 3 games. We don’t look for a turnaround here as they are facing a JSU defense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in YPP allowed and shut out Eastern Michigan 21-0 last week. The Gamecock defense has held 3 of their 4 opponents this year to 14 points or fewer. The Sam Houston State defense did give up 38 points last week to a potent Houston offense, however prior to that they held BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 points in their first 2 games. To put those SHSU defensive efforts into perspective, Air Force has scored 49, 45, and 32 in their other 3 games while BYU scored 41, 31, and 27 vs their 3 other opponents. While Jacksonville State’s offense is better than Sam Houston’s not existent offense, the Gamecocks are far from a juggernaut scoring 17, 16, and 21 points in their 3 games vs FBS opponents. Looking even deeper, those 3 opponents currently rank 76th, 96th, and 106th in total defense vs FBS opponent so it’s not as if JSU has played a gauntlet of great defenses. Neither team has a potent passing attack as they rank 129th and 124th in YPG passing and both love to run the ball which eats clock. JSU is 4-0 to the Under this year by an average of almost 19 PPG. SHSU is 2-1 to the Under this year. The projected final score here based on the total and the line (JSU -6.5) is 22-15 and we don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under is the play. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Twins are likely going with Sonny Gray and the A's are likely going with Luis Medina. Either way, Minnesota is the play here as Oakland is wrapping up a miserable season with more and more misery. The Athletics have dropped to 48-110 on the season and are 21-73 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 47-33 at home this season and this is their regular season home finale. 83 of Oakland's 110 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 67 of Minnesota's 85 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA this month and had a 2.04 ERA last month and he has a 1.77 ERA in day games this season. Luis Medina is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in day games and 1-6 with a 6.60 ERA in road games. He had a 6.10 ERA last month and has a 6.62 ERA last month. This is another complete mismatch and Minnesota also has the much better bullpen in addition to the much better lineup - even if they rest a player or two here. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay rather small juice with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-27-23 | Rays -120 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -125 over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Red Sox have Brayan Bello listed as a starter and the Rays are expected to start Tyler Glasnow here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Glasnow and a play against Bello so we are in good shape either way. From a team aspect there is a huge edge for Tampa Bay as well. They are still alive in the race for the AL East division title plus they catch a Red Sox team that is slumping badly to end the season. Boston is 4-15 last 19 games and fell out of playoff contention as the month of September wore on. Overall, they have been struggling for 2 months now as, dating to late July, the Red Sox have a 20-34 record! The Rays are on a 33-18 run since late July! Glasnow has dominated the Red Sox in both his starts against them this season and that included one at Fenway Park! Though he has given up more earned runs in recent outings he has still been tough to hit and has continued piling up strikeouts and he will resume his dominance of the Red Sox here! As for Bello, he has allowed 15 earned runs in 20 innings in his 4 starts against TB in his career. Bello also enters this outing off B2B losses and got destroyed in his most recent start and has a 7.65 ERA this month. All factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for Tampa Bay to keep rolling as they have one of the best records in the league this season and continue to be consistently strong. Rays get the win this evening in Boston. |
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09-26-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
#980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are hungry to lock down the AL East. They are getting close but they are not quite there yet. Here they will take advantage of facing a struggling Nationals club and move one step closer to a division title. While Washington is wrapping up another frustrating season, Baltimore has won 6 of 9 games and is looking to top the Rays for the division title after falling just short of the post-season last year. The Orioles have a big pitching edge here with Kyle Bradish over Josiah Gray. Though Gray is coming off decent starts recently, he faced non-playoff level clubs that were struggling. This is a much tougher match-up for him here and he was very fortunate against Baltimore earlier this season when he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings despite walking 4 batters and giving up 8 baserunners overall in the short outing. In his last 4 starts against playoff-level teams - Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays - Gray has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings! As for the Orioles Bradish, his numbers are already extremely strong on the season but when you take out the only very ugly start he had (7 earned runs allowed) it shows just how amazingly consistent he has been this season. Taking out his ugliest outing this season, Bradish is 11-6 with a 2.65 ERA and this is a guy who averages one strikeout per inning and also he dominated Washington when he faced them earlier this season! The Orioles right-hander had a fantastic August and is following it up with a dominant September. The Orioles are on pace for at least 100 wins this season and 70% of their wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Nationals are mired in a 8-19 slump and 17 of their last 18 defeats (94%!) have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Orioles big on the run line in this one. |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 16-28 | Loss | -109 | 63 h 49 m | Show |
#471/472 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 43 Points - Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - In Week #1 of the NFL season the Unders were 12-4. In Week #2 the Overs came in with a 13-3 record. The oddsmakers have adjusted their numbers up on this game and we will bet contrarian with an Under wager. The Cowboy’s defense is ‘that’ good! They have given up 10 total points this season and the touchdown allowed was a 68-yard play to the Jets last week. Ask yourself this, would you be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t score here? We wouldn’t. Dallas held the Giants offense to 171-total yards in the opener, then held the Jets to 215 last week with 68 coming on one long TD pass. Take that 1 TD play away last week and the Cowboys allowed just 3.4YPPL. In Week #1 the Cowboys put up 40-points but two scores came by special teams and the defense. Last week against the Jets, the Cowboys (McCarthy) went ultra conservative in the 2nd half with 4 field goals. Dallas has averaged just 4.7YPP which ranks 24th in the league. Arizona is averaging 5.0YPP offensively which is 21st. Both teams average abnormally high Yards Per Points offensively, but we expect a regression in those numbers. Dallas now has two weeks of film on Cards QB Dobbs and will have a gameplan in place to pressure the unproven QB. The pace of play clearly favors a lower scoring contest as the Cardinals are 27th in pace with a play run every 30.1 seconds. Dallas is nearly as slow (25th) at a play run every 29.9 seconds. With the potential of Arizona scoring 10 or less points, and the Cowboys conservative play calling we like Under the total. |
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09-24-23 | Mariners v. Rangers -119 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Mariners again lost to the Rangers yesterday in the second game of this 3-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Mariners to just 33-44 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 49-31 in home games this season and this is their regular season home finale. Considering that plus the fact they are in a battle with Houston and Seattle for the AL West title, the Rangers realize the importance of taking advantage of home field in this one for the series sweep. We get line value here because Bryan Woo is on the mound for the Mariners in this one and has a respectable ERA. The fact is the rookie does not have the MLB big game experience of Nathan Eovaldi plus Woo is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in his 3 day game starts this season. This Texas line up has been very good this season at home where they are ranked #2 in the AL for batting average (.274) and #1 in the AL with a .492 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6 RPG this season at home. They will send Eovaldi to the mound here as he continues to get back to full strength after missing the last two weeks of July and the month of August. We look for him to continue to bounce back as he has gotten stronger and worked deeper with each start here in the month of September. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 3.04 and an 11-4 record. With over a decade of experience including multiple seasons with post-season experience, Eovaldi delivers in a key game here. The Rangers are looking to grab the division title this coming week and we look for Eovaldi to help the cause and, along the way, he adds a W to his sparkling run of 10-2 his last 12 decisions! Texas is 6-1 last 7 at home and Seattle is on an overall 7-12 run and has lost 10 of 16 road games! Take the Rangers |
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09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 44 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 44 Points - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The first aspect we like about this game is the fact that both teams prefer to play fast, which leads to more plays/possessions per game and potentially more scoring opportunities. The Jags are 12th in play per second at 27.9, the Texans are 5th at 25.5 seconds p/play. After putting up 31-points in their opener, the Jags managed just 9-points last week against a very good Kansas City defense that had Chris Jones back in the lineup. Jacksonville had three potential TD drives that turned into FG’s when receivers didn’t get their feet down inbounds in the endzone. The Jags were 9th in scoring a year ago at 23.9PPG and 12th in Yards Per Points offensively at 15.0. The low scoring output last week was not a true indicator of this offensive unit, and we are betting they bounce back here, especially against this Texans defense. Houston is giving up 28 PPG and just allowed 31 to a Colts team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road. The Colts averaged 6.3 Yards Per Play against this Texans D after averaging just 4.8YPP a year ago (31st). Houston may have found their QB of the future with CJ Stroud who played extremely well last week against Indianapolis. Stroud was 30/47 for 384 passing yards with 2 TD’s. The Texans converted 9 of 19 3rd downs and managed 24 first downs in the game despite losing. The average total points scored in an NFL game this season is 45.4PPG. This game will not be less than average. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 44.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show |
#377/378 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Ohio vs Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Ohio’s defense has been lights out this season holding their 4 opponents to a combined 47 total points. If we subtract defensive TD’s, they’ve allowed 40 total points or just 10 PPG. Last week vs Big 12 Iowa State they allowed 7 points on a TD with 4:00 minutes to go in the game and ISU had just 38 yards rushing on 1.7 YPC. They rank to 15 nationally in total defense and top 25 in yards per point allowed. The Ohio offense leaves a lot to be desired. They are slow paced (92nd in plays per second) and if we subtract their 27 point “outburst” vs FCS Long Island, they’ve scored 13, 17, and 10 points. The Bobcats rank 115th in YPP offensive efficiency averaging only 4.3 YPP despite facing defenses that allow 6.4, 5.1 and 4.0 YPP. Bowling Green has an offense that is struggling and they’ve slowed their pace this season. Their offense is dead even with Ohio’s averaging only 4.3 YPP this season and after ranking 84th in plays per second last season they’ve dropped to 126th in that stat this season. Their defense isn’t great but they’ve improved allowing 350 YPG vs FBS opponents this year (Liberty & Michigan) after allowing 418 YPG last season. Last week they held a very good Michigan offense to just 312 total yards. This one shapes up to be a low scoring, grinder. Under is the play. |
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09-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Illinois -15 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 36 m | Show |
#360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -15 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Illini are just 1-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far already facing the best team in the MAC (Toledo), one of the better teams in the Big 12 (Kansas), and a top 10 team (Penn State). Now they take a big step down in competition and we think Bret Bielema and company are ready to paste someone. This looks like that spot as they face an FAU team that hasn’t been able to score points and now will be playing without their starting QB. The Owls have scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s in their 2 games vs FBS opponents (Ohio & Clemson) and both of those came last week @ Clemson when the Tigers already had a 41-0 lead and were already looking ahead to their game this week vs FSU. The Owls have averaged a ridiculously bad 3.3 YPP vs those 2 FBS teams which ranks them 132nd nationally (out of 133 teams). The Illinois defense was fantastic last season ranking 4th nationally in total defense and we expected a step back after losing some key players. They are still much better than they’ve shown thus far vs 3 high level offenses and now they get a reprieve and we expect the defense to shut down FAU. Last week they showed quite well holding a very good PSU offense to 4 YPC and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This will be the Illini’s 3rd home game this season and in their first 2 they looked solid. They topped a very good Toledo team in week 1 and were impressive offensively averaging 6.1 YPP while holding the Rockets to 5.3 YPP. Last week they lost 30-13 here vs Penn State but that was a bit deceiving. The overall and YPP yardage was very close to even in that game. Problem was Illinois was -5 in turnovers and 4 of those giveaways led directly to 20 of PSU’s 30 points. Illinois does have their Big 10 opener @ Purdue on deck but coming off 2 losses we don’t expect them to be peaking ahead here. Bielema has never been afraid to win big vs inferior competition and he knows his team needs some confidence going into conference play. Blowout here. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 20 m | Show |
#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable. |
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09-22-23 | Rockies v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Rockies are expected to start Noah Davis but whether he starts or whatever opener Colorado uses, we are not overly concerned with the pitching match-up here and will go action on pitchers. That's because the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst in the league this season and the Cubs bullpen has also had some recent struggles. As for Davis, he has a 9.97 ERA in his 7 MLB appearances (4 starts) in his young career. The Cubs are expected to go with Jameson Taillon as their starter here. He is 1-7 with a 6.86 ERA in his day game appearances this season. Day games at Wrigley Field, even when the wind is more side to side rather than blowing out, do tend to be higher scoring and we like the pattern for the Cubs entering this one as well. Coming off an 8-6 loss to the Pirates yesterday, Chicago is mired in a 1-7 slump but 7 of the 8 games have totaled at least 10 runs! The Cubs are 2-2 last 4 home games and have averaged scoring 8 runs in that stretch. However, Chicago also has allowed an average of 7 runs per game over the last 8 games. The Rockies bats struggled some in their recent series at San Diego but that park is not exactly the most hitter-friendly in the league and the Padres have some tough pitchers. Before a quiet final two games in that series, the Rockies had scored an average of 7 runs in a solid 5-2 stretch over their 7 games before the two duds. Look for their bats to wake up again after yesterday's off-day and now playing in a hitter-friendly venue! Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with double digits in runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -10 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Really tough spot here for an NYG team that looks like they’ve regressed from last years playoff team. The Giants were @ Arizona last week and trailed 20-0 at half vs what we consider one of the 3 worst teams in the NFL. That means over their first 6 quarters of play this season, NY went scoreless (lost 40-0 vs Dallas in week 1). They did storm back to win last week 31-28 vs Arizona but San Francisco ain’t Arizona. Now on the west coast for the 2nd straight week (NYG did stay on the west coast after last week’s game but still not an ideal situation) but now facing one of the best defenses in the NFL, if NY gets down here, they won’t be making a huge comeback in our opinion. The Niners look like one of the two best teams in the NFC, along with Dallas, and they’ll be playing their home opener here. We were on SF last week and while they won by a TD (LA Rams kicked FG as time expired) is should really have been worse as the Niners outgained the Rams by +2.0 YPP. QB Purdy missed a few open deep shots that would have blown the game open. The 49ers currently sit 2nd in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and we expect them to have plenty of success on Sunday vs a Giant defense that allowed a bad Arizona offense to put up 6.3 YPP. That’s the same Arizona offense that averaged 3.6 YPP in week 1 vs Washington. New York is banged up with 2 starting offensive linemen out along with RB Barkley most likely out and their defense has allowed 68 points in 2 games. San Fran is stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball and we don’t think NYG can keep up vs this defense. SF should roll here. |
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09-20-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Aaron Civale. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Civale also has held hitters to a .185 batting average this month and just 26 hits in 31 innings dating back to mid-August while striking out 42 in those 31 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Reid Detmers and he has a lower ERA in September than Civale but Detmers has been fortunate as opponents are hitting .280 against him in this two starts this month and, by the way, opponents hit .308 against him in the month of August. Detmers is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA this season in his dozen road starts. Civale is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in night games this season and he has held hitters to a .215 batting average in those dozen starts. As we mentioned here yesterday, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout has still been out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 38 to 13 in those 6 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for both the AL East title as well as the top record in the AL. Though the Rays entered this series off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. As we mentioned here yesterday, they are happy to be back home after that tough series at Baltimore. Now, after yesterday's 6-2 win over the Angels, Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 17 on their home field. 10 of last 11 Rays home wins have come by at least 2 runs. 20 of last 26 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and having to lay only very small juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-19-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Taj Bradley. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Bradley also has held hitters to a .226 batting average since the All-Star break while striking out 38 over 29 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Patrick Sandoval and he is 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents hitting .333 against him in the month of September. Sandoval has really been struggling and though Bradley's numbers have not been great, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout is still out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 5 straight games and been outscored 32 to 11 in those 5 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for the AL East title and top record in the AL. Though off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. They are happy to be back home after a tough series at Baltimore and Tampa Bay has won 12 of last 16 on their home field. 9 of last 10 Rays home wins by at least 2 runs. 19 of last 25 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-18-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Freddy Peralta expected to start for Milwaukee and he is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .159 batting average in those 11 starts! Adam Wainwright is having a rough season and is off his first win since the All-Star break. Though he got the win in that game Wainwright actually had a WHIP of 2.00 in the start with 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings. Wainwright was far from dominant and his rough season includes a 1-7 mark with an 8.29 ERA since the All-Star break in his 9 starts. On the season, opponents are hitting .354 against him. St Louis off a win over the Phillies yesterday but had lost 11 of 17 games heading into that one including 9 of last 13 home games prior to the tight win versus Philadelphia Sunday. The Cardinals are dead last in the NL Central while the Brewers had won 3 straight games prior to yesterday's loss and remain at the top of the same division - the NL Central. Of course the Brewers are a rather high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Cardinals have 58 of 83 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Cardinals have been slumping overall and 17 of their last 19 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has road rout written all over it. We like the Brewers to bounce back back from yesterday's loss to the Nationals and Milwaukee gets it done on the run line in this one. |
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09-18-23 | Saints -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #289 New Orleans Saints -3 at Carolina Panthers, Monday 7:15PM ET - The Panthers look like a team that is in for a long season. They’ve been hit hard on their offensive line already this season and start a rookie QB in Young. Young threw 2 INT’s last week and the offense managed just 3.9YPPL against a Falcons D that allowed 5.7YPPL in 2022. It will be tough sledding Monday night against a Saints defense that was 4th in Yards Per Play allowed a year ago at 5.0. The Saints hung on for a win in Week 1 against the Titans and looked much better than the 16-15 final margin. New Orleans put up over 350-total yards and averaged 5.5YPPL. Defensively they held the Titans to 285-total yards and 4.9YPPL. Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. If Young felt pressure last week against the Falcons, just wait until he gets a load of this Saints pass rush. To make this point, the Falcons, ranked 32nd or last in the NFL in sack percentage defense a year ago. In comparison, this Saints defense was 4th best in sack% at 8.22% in 2022. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Last week the Panthers D wasn’t tested by a Falcons passing attack that averaged just 6.1 yards per completion. Today Carolina’s secondary will get a stiff test from a Saints offense that wants to push the football down the field. The Saints lost to this Panthers team twice last season but outgained them in both meetings. Historically, the Panthers haven’t been anything special as a home dog but the Saints have been impressive as a road favorite with a 15-9 ATS record their last 24 with a +/- of +9PPG. Lay the points with the double-revenge road chalk. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show |
#287/288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 46.5 Points - Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - Our words of advice for Week #2 in the NFL are to not overreact to Week #1’s results. Miami is coming off a really high scoring game against the Chargers with 70-total points. New England is coming off a 45-point total against the Eagles. Those results have driven the O/U number up for this AFC East rivalry which puts us squarely on the Under. Miami averaged a ridiculous 8.2-Yards Per Play last week against the Chargers after averaging 6.0 YPP last season. That was against a bad Chargers defense that ranked 21st in YPP D a year ago. New England just held a Philadelphia offense to 4.1 YPP after the Eagles averaged 5.8 YPP a season ago. Last season the Fish averaged 23.8 PPG (11th) and allowed 24.1 PPG. (24th). New England scored 21.4 PPG (16th) and gave up 20.4 PPG (11th). Miami scored 30+ points themselves six times last season but four of those games came against the Bears, Lions, Texans and Browns who all ranked 19th or worse in PPG allowed. In games involving the Patriots last season only 6 games (in regulation) finished with more than 46.5 total points. The Pats offense scored more than 26-points just three times. These two rivals have combined for more than this O/U number 1 time in the last six meetings and three times in the last ten. New England coach Belichick just watched L.A. pound out over 230 rushing yards and will take a conservative approach in this game with a run first mentality. |
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09-17-23 | 49ers -7 v. Rams | Top | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
#281 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers -7 over Los Angeles Rams, Sunday 4 PM ET - This line opened -4.5 and was quickly bet through several key numbers including 7 but we don’t feel the move is enough and will back San Francisco. The Rams are coming off a win in Seattle, but they did so with a revamped O-line which the Seahawks couldn’t take advantage of and pressure Stafford. L.A. also were thin at WR without Kupp (on PUP) and yet had two receivers go over 100-yards each. Was the Rams winning an indicator of how good they could be this season, or was it a better indicator of Seattle and what they are this season? The 49ers went into Pittsburgh and destroyed a Steelers team that many experts projected as a surprise team in the AFC this season. The Niners defense held the Steelers to 41-rushing yards after that unit averaged 121 YPG rushing a year ago. San Francisco outgained Pittsburgh 5.9 YPP to just 3.9 YPP in their dominating 30-7 win. The 49ers beat the Rams twice last season and have won 8 of the last nine meetings. In the two games last season the Niners outgained the Rams 6.7 YPP to 3.5 YPP and 7.1 YPP to 4.0 YPP in both games. They won by 17 and 15 points respectively. San Francisco had the second-best average Margin of Victory last season at +8.7 PPG. The Rams had the 28th worst average MOV at minus -4.5 PPG. We won’t be scared off by the move. Lay it! |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - Brandon Woodruff is 18-5 combined the past two seasons! The Brewers right-hander has a 1.93 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Patrick Corbin is 27-55 the past 4 seasons combined. His ERA is currently above 5.00 and this is the third straight season that the Nationals left-hander is producing an ERA above the 5.00 level. Corbin is off a rare quality start at Pittsburgh but this was preceded by allowing 14 earned runs in 9 innings over his two prior starts. Washington has lost 5 straight games and is dead last in the NL East while the Brewers have won 3 straight and are at the top of the NL Central! Of course the Brewers are a high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Nationals have 64 of 84 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Nationals are mired in a 4-15 slump and 13 of their last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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09-16-23 | James Madison v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 30 m | Show |
#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Troy -2.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Troy is back home after getting waxed @ Kansas State last week which wasn’t a big surprise as the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the country. In that loss we were impressed with Troy’s defense as they held a very good KSU offense to 5.7 YPP and on the ground the Cats averaged less than 4.0 YPC. It was a 2 score game early in the 4th quarter when KSU added a few late TD’s to make this score look worse than in probably should have been at 42-13. The Trojans won their first game big over Stephen F Austin (a decent FCS team) despite turning the ball over 4 times they had 523 yards of offense. Now we get last year’s Sun Belt Champs (Troy), who finished 12-2 last season, back at home with a light number. We haven’t been overly impressed with JMU through their first 2 games. They are 2-0 but wins over FCS Bucknell, who has a 5-21 record their last 26 games, and a come from behind win over a bad Virginia team last week. That was a huge win for James Madison taking down the instate big boy UVA but let’s not forget JMU was nearly a TD favorite on the road in that game and won 36-35 on a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Cavs are one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation and JMU was outplayed in that 1 point win. UVA led that game by double digits in the 4th quarter, outgained the Dukes on a YPP basis, and the Cavs true freshman QB (back up but playing for injured starter) who stands 5’11 and has zero experience threw for 377 yards on the James Madison defense. They put up 35 points on JMU after scoring 10 points in their opener vs Tennessee. UVA averaged 6.5 YPP vs James Madison last weekend after averaging just 3.0 YPP vs the Vols. Looks like we have a big edge defensively with the host here and the Trojans also have a very experienced QB Watson (4 year starter) has thrown for over 7,000 yards in his career. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, Troy has now won 11 of their last 12 home games and we’re more than comfortable laying this small number with them on Saturday. |
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09-16-23 | LSU -9 v. Mississippi State | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU -9.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - LSU got a lot of negative publicity for getting rolled in their season opener vs Florida State but they bounced back last week, in what could have been a flat spot vs Grambling, and won big 72-10. Even a closer look at that FSU game tells us the Tigers played pretty well for about 3 quarters before the wheels fell off against what most now consider a top 5 team in the country. That game vs Florida State was tied at 17-17 late in the 3rd quarter and LSU averaged over 7.0 YPP and the total yardage was pretty close with the Noles having a slight advantage. The 21 point FSU win was a bit deceiving. MSU has been underwhelming under new head coach Zach Arnett who was the Bulldogs DC but took over late last year when Mike Leach passed away. Arnett has never been a head coach prior to this so advantage to veteran Brian Kelly and LSU in that regard. MSU’s new offensive coordinator has tried to get away from the full air raid type offense and run the ball more, although it looks like the personnel that was recruited for the air raid doesn’t necessarily fit the new scheme. So far in 2 games, the Bulldogs have run the ball 78 times while attempting only 46 passes. That’s from an MSU team that AVERAGED 49 pass attempts per game last year leading the nation. And it’s not like they’ve been lighting it up on the ground. Last week the Dogs averaged just 3.7 YPC vs an Arizona defense that allowed 5.5 YPC last year ranking 128th nationally. Mississippi State won that game 31-24 in OT but they were outgained by 125 yards, the Dogs were +4 in turnover margin for the game, and it still took OT for them to win that game at home vs a lower tier Pac 12 team. Now they are facing an LSU team that we still have power rated as one of the top 10 teams in the nation. Last year when these 2 met, it was early in the season, MSU was considered the better team at the time, LSU was still learning Brian Kelly’s systems in his first year as HC, and the Tigers still won by 15 points outgained the Bulldogs 419 to 289. Now the roles are reversed and we see LSU cruising in this game vs an MSU offense that will struggle and a defense that allowed 6.0 YPP to Arizona last week. Lay it. |
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09-15-23 | Rangers -118 v. Guardians | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Cleveland Guardians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The red hot Rangers have won 6 straight games and have Jonathan Gray on the mound for this one. He is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray has a 3.43 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a batting average of only .220 away from home this season. Lucas Giolito has been trending the opposite direction and getting absolutely crushed in terms of homers allowed. Giolito has given up 3 homers in 3 straight starts! Yes, 9 homers over his last 3 starts. He has allowed multi-homer games in 6 of his last 10 starts! Giolito is now on his 3rd team this season and the 2nd half of this season has been a nightmare for him. Since the All-Star break Giolito is 1-8 with an 8.06 ERA. The Rangers are off a 9-2 win yesterday and have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their current winning streak of 6 games! The Guardians have been going the other direction with losses in 8 of 11 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts while Giolito has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers |
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09-15-23 | Army v. UTSA UNDER 45 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 1 m | Show |
#111/112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Army vs UTSA, Friday at 7 PM ET - Last year UTSA’s offense was the strength of their team, this year it’s definitely been the defense. The offense has struggled with a new offensive coordinator scoring only 37 points combined in their 2 games. Defensively they’ve allowed only 30 points on the season in 2 games and their run defense has been fantastic allowing only 2 YPC which will come in handy vs Army on Thursday. The Cadets also have a new offensive coordinator and while they are trying to throw the ball more often (27 pass attempts in 2 games) the fact is they don’t have the personnel to be very successful through the air and they are still a heavy run team (50 rush attempts per game – 5th nationally). Army continues to be a very slow paced team as well averaging only 1 play every 34 seconds which is the 3rd slowest pace in the nation so far this season. If we throw out last week’s result when they faced a bad FCS team (Delaware State), Army scored only 13 points vs UL Monroe and their only TD in that game was scored by their defense. That was facing a ULM defense that ranked 108th last season in total defense. On the other side of the ball, the Cadets only allowed 17 points in that game vs ULM with both Warhawk TD’s coming in the final 6:00 minutes of the game. UTSA has faced the Army offense 3 of the last 4 seasons, including holding the Cadets to 3.2 YPC last season, so they know how to defend it. Last year was a high scoring game in OT, however the previous 2 totaled 42 and 44 points. We like this one to stay Under the total. |
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09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -120 over Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Texas picked up the win here last night topping the Blue Jays 6-3. That’s 4 straight wins for the Rangers but Toronto, prior to B2B losses to open up this series, had wins in their last 4 home games and we like them to get another one tonight to get right back on track. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but they are still a top ten offense in the league and we expect them to have success tonight vs Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers southpaw has been crushed in both his starts this month. Also, Montgomery has a 2-6 record in his road starts this season while the Jays Yusei Kikuchi has been great at home this season. The Blue Jays left-hander is 5-2 at home this season and has held hitters to a .220 batting average in his 13 starts here. In his 10 starts since the All-Star break, Kikuchi has a 2.44 ERA and has held hitters to a .234 batting average. The Jays also have the much better bullpen in this match-up when you consider ERA numbers on the season. Toronto ranks 5th and Texas ranks 26th for bullpen ERA! The Rangers have won 4 straight but this was on the heels of a 4-16 run! Texas had been slumping to say the least and now we get value with the Jays at home and with a big pitching edge in terms of starters and bullpen here. The Jays, prior to losing the first two games of this series, had won 8 of 10 games. Toronto should resume their heater here as they have done a great job of avoiding losing streaks this season. This one should end at 2 for the Blue Jays at home per all of the above. The Rangers entered this series with a losing road record on the season. The Jays play in the tough AL East and have a sub-par divisional record but they entered this series 68-38 against non-divisional foes. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight. |
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09-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 or 9 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Rather low total considering the strength of these two lineups and the way yesterday's double-header played out. However, this one will play out like a playoff game and is set up to be a pitchers duel. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Braves are ranked 1st in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Braves Max Fried is 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA this season and he has allowed just 10 earned runs in his last 5 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.60 ERA and has held hitters to a .185 batting average - these stats in his 10 starts since the All-Star break. Wheeler is happy to be at home for this start as 7 of his last 9 starts have been on the road. Even in that road-heavy stretch, Wheeler has allowed only 16 earned runs in those 9 starts. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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09-11-23 | Angels v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Mariners to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Seattle is expected to send Logan Gilbert to the mound to start this one. As for the Angels, Reid Detmers will be the likely starter for Los Angeles here. Seattle's Gilbert is 13-5 this season and he has a 3.34 ERA in night games. He is 8-0 since July 1st and has an ERA under 3.00 since then! The Angels Detmers is 3-10 this season including 1-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. Detmers is 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA since the All-Star break. The Mariners have lost 3 straight games but they just faced the Rays in Tampa Bay. They now go from facing one of the best teams in baseball on the road to now hosting one of the majors' worst teams. Yes the Angels are in a free-fall despite rare B2B wins. They were outhit 8 to 3 in yesterday's 2-1 win and if you look at their lineup it is currently a shell of what it used to be. No wonder the Angels had lost 26 of 35 games prior to the rare B2B wins. By the way, LA has not won 3 straight games since July so the odds certainly favor Seattle getting the win here. In terms of a big-margin win, 16 of the Angels last 20 losses have been by 2 or more runs. Also, the Mariners have one of the top bullpens in MLB while the Angels have one of the worst. Also, Seattle has not lost 4 straight games since April so this is a great spot from a technical standpoint in terms of putting the odds in our favor. Angels off B2B wins, Mariners off 3 straight losses, and the likelihood (based on odds) of what comes next! Seattle is 24-12 in divisional games this season and 57 of Mariners 79 wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Mariners. Lay it! |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under the total – Buffalo vs NY Jets, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Jets defense was fantastic last season and they had the Bills number to say the least. Buffalo scored just 37 total points in 2 games vs NY (17 & 20 points) and they scored TD’s on only 4 of their 22 offensive possessions vs New York last season. That’s only an 18% TD rate and to put that into perspective, against everyone else not named the Jets, the Bills scored TD’s on 29% of their offensive possessions. Not surprising as NYJ let the NFL allowing TD’s on only 15% of opponents possessions, let the NFL in YPP allowed and finished 4th in total defense. We expect Buffalo to struggle offensively again in this game. On the other side, the Jets bring over Aaron Rodgers from GB but let’s face it, he had a terrible season in 2022. His worst QBR rating of his career ranking 26th in the NFL. Can he turn it around this season? Maybe but he’ll have to do so behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL which is far from ideal. He's also working with new skill players and played only a few snaps in the preseason so it may take some time to fine tune this offense. He’s facing a very solid Buffalo defense that ranked in the top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and they gave up only 19 PPG (4th in the league). Seven of the last eight meetings between these 2 AFC East rivals have ended to total points of less than 45 which is the current number. Six of those games have totaled 37 points or fewer. Another Under on Monday Night. |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
#480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY GIANTS + over DALLAS, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - First off, we love looking at home underdogs vs a division opponent in week 1. That situation has been money in the bank with the host dogs covering 21 of the last 26 in that spot. On top of that, division dogs in general in week 1 are 41-21 ATS over the last decade. Dallas gets all the publicity in this one but let’s not forget the Giants made the playoffs last season and won a game @ 13-4 Minnesota in the Wild Card round. We really like NYG head coach Daboll and now they are in their 2nd year under him so we look for an improved team in 2023. We’re hearing QB Daniel Jones played outstanding in camp and has a great grasp of the offense in his 2nd season under OC Kafka and Daboll. Dallas was 8-1 at home last season but only 4-4 on the road. QB Dak Prescott didn’t play in the pre-season which we feel is a negative for the offense in game 1 and he led the NFL in interceptions last year despite missing 5 games. He also loses his offensive coordinator Moore who is now with the Chargers and HC Mike McCarthy will call plays which we think is a negative. The Giants defensive line is one of the best in the NFL and we look for an improved secondary with some additions through free agency and the draft. Dallas won both games last season but both were tight 1 score games and we really expect NYG to be drastically improved. This line tells us Dallas is 6 points better on a neutral and if this was in Dallas be laying almost 10 – No way – we’re not so sure NYG won’t be the better team this season. Take the points. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin v. Washington State OVER 57.5 | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#325/326 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 57.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Washington State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - These 2 met last year and Wazzou won 17-14 in a lower scoring game but the script flips this weekend in Pullman. Last year the Badgers offense was fairly pedestrian ranking 74th nationally in scoring (25 PPG) and 89th in total offense (357 YPG) yet still put up over 400 yards on this Cougar defense. Multiple mistakes (3 turnover & 11 penalties) kept their scoring output much lower than it should have been. Last week, under new OC Longo who came over for UNC, the Badgers rolled up 38 points (dropped TD pass would have made it 45) and over 500 yards vs a Buffalo team that had a winning record last year and won their bowl game. Wisconsin also is a much more up tempo team this year under Longo and they ran 71 snaps last week. Their defense, as we suspected, looks like they’ve taken a step back. They lost their top 2 pass rushers and they weren’t able to put any pressure on Buffalo QB Snyder with 0 sacks on the day. This week they face a very accomplished passer in Cam Ward (451 yards passing last week) and he is very elusive. If UW couldn’t get any pressure at home vs a MAC team, we doubt they bother Ward much this week. Wazzou has a new OC Arbuckle who came over from Western Kentucky, one of the fastest paced teams in college football last year. They showed last week that’s the way they will play this year as well with 87 offensive snaps, 3rd most of any team last weekend, in a 50-24 win over Colorado State. Defensively Washington State allowed a CSU team, that averaged 13 PPG last season (127th nationally) to put up 24 points last Saturday. Both defenses are facing much tougher situations this week and we’re not sure either will be able to stop the other’s offense. We like Over the total here. |
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09-09-23 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves, Saturday at 7:20 PM ET - Early on it looked like Charlie Morton might start this one for the Braves. Even if he did he is coming off a tough outing and more of the same would be likely here. However, it now looks like Dylan Dodd will get the start for the Braves. He has struggled in his limited major league action in this, his rookie season. Dodd also has struggled in the minors badly this season. The point is that no matter who starts here we like this over. The Pirates will take advantage of facing less-than-stellar pitching and this Braves offense remains the most dangerous in the majors. The Braves won big again yesterday and they are 12-4 last 16 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. Pittsburgh, believe it not, had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5 runs per game in their 9 games preceding yesterday's defeat. The Pirates should enjoy some success once again at the plate in this one as they get right back on track. However, the Braves are not going to stop hitting and the projected starter for Pittsburgh here is Johan Oviedo. Though he has been a little better of late, he is still 8-14 with a 4.27 ERA this season and this is the best team in baseball that he must face today on Saturday. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Saturday. |
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09-09-23 | Texas State v. UTSA -13.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA -13.5 over Texas State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. Texas State is in prime letdown area coming off a huge upset @ Baylor as 28 point dogs. Baylor outgained Texas State 524 to 441 but also had 9 penalties. Coming into the season Texas State had 71 new players (2nd most in the nation) and a new coach (Kinne) who came over from Incarnate Word (FCS school). They played well last Saturday but also picked up a number of breaks and they are still learning a new system on both sides of the ball. They are taking on a veteran UTSA coming off a 17-14 loss @ Houston as a 2 point road favorite. The Roadrunners drastically outplayed Houston averaging 5.9 YPP to just 4.6 for the Cougars but had 3 turnovers (0 for Houston) which was the difference in the game. UTSA dominated in the trenches with 208 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC while holding Houston to only 101 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor was not happy after the loss. “We didn’t play winning football,” said Traylor. “Two-thirds of the triangle we did. We held them to 100 yards rushing. We were physical. I’m proud of that. Offensively, we rushed for over 200 yards. You can tell we can impose our will with our three running backs. Our passing game was not very clean. Obviously, three turnovers are hard to overcome.” Now we get a veteran UTSA team with 15 starters back after finishing with an 11-3 record last year, at home after a loss they should have won. Roadrunner Senior QB Harris (4 year starter) has been fabulous with nearly 10,000 yards passing and 76 TD’s and he’s coming off one of his worst games in recent memory (3 interceptions). You can bet he’ll play much better against this Texas State defense that allowed over 500 yards on 7.0 YPP last week. Meanwhile, we don’t anticipate the Texas State offense having anywhere near the amount of success they had last week facing a UTSA defense that held a potent Houston offense to 4.6 YPP last week. Teams coming off an outright win as a dog of 20 or more points have only covered 44% of the time the following week (Texas State). This line is too low in our opinion based on last week’s deceiving results so we’ll lay the points with UTSA. |
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09-08-23 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -110 over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Diamondbacks got the big win yesterday and today should be a repeat of that. Arizona's Zac Gallen is off B2B tougher starts but he is having a great season overall and plus this followed 4 straight starts in which his typical dominance was fully intact. Gallen went 3-0 in those 4 starts and allowed 4 earned runs on 18 hits in 25.1 innings and he struck out 30 batters! The only two times this season that he was off of B2B starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs in each outing he bounced back with a stellar outing each time. Gallen has not had 3 straight bad starts this entire season. He is a gamer that will come up big here against the Cubs who start a much more questionable starter in this late-season playoff-chase battle. Jameson Taillon gets the call for Chicago here and he has a 5.51 ERA on the season plus has been a bit shaky over his last 5 starts. In those outings he has allowed 26 runs (20 earned) on 33 hits in 26.1 innings! Taillon is just not on the same level as Gallen as the latter is 26-11 the past two seasons combined with a 3.00 ERA! The Diamondbacks confidence is surging off B2B wins by a combined score of 18 to 7 and they stay hot here in this one! The Cubs had been hot too but if you look at their schedule over the past 3 weeks, they had faced a combination of weak non-playoff teams and a number of slumping teams too. This game is another playoff-level game today and we like Arizona to get the job done again here. Take the Diamondbacks on the road Friday afternoon. |
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09-07-23 | Lions v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* under 54 Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - The NFL debuts Thursday night with the Lions taking on the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Lions surprised many fans and teams last year but won’t sneak up on anyone this year. Detroit made a huge jump offensively last season going from 19.1PPG in 2021 to 26.6PPG in 2022 so expect a regression this year against a tougher schedule. Gone from last year's roster are running backs Jamaal Williams (over 1,000-yds rushing) and D’Andre Swift who accounted for 23 combined rushing TD’s. The Lions gave up 25.1PPG but should be improved defensively with added personnel on the D-line and in the defensive backfield. Detroit was much better defensively in the second half of the season allowing just 20.2PPG in their last ten games. Of course, KC is one of the very best offenses in the NFL and has averaged over 29PPG the past two seasons. In their first twelve games last season they scored 27 or less points seven times. Defensively, the Chiefs were 9th in Yards Per Play defense in 2022 at 5.2 per and gave up 22.2PPG (18th). In watching the betting markets on this Total we see a key sharp Book offering a lower number than most of the public shops. That tells us the heavies are on the Under. |
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09-06-23 | Giants v. Cubs -143 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -145 over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET - We successfully played the over yesterday as we expected the long-struggling bats of the Giants to finally get going with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. They did just that but the Cubs outscored them in the high-scoring win that was an easy over for us. Wednesday the wind will likely be switching to westerly just before or as this game is going on. Either way, the Cubs are the team much more likely to again win a high-scoring battle if it would turn into one. Since the All-Star break, Chicago is averaging 6 runs per game and no NL team has scored more runs than them since the break. As for San Francisco, they are dead last in the majors for runs scored since the break and having averaged a paltry 3.6 runs per game. The Giants are hitting just .216 since mid-July with a dismal .344 slugging percentage. The Cubs slugging percentage over the same period is .460 - more than 100 points higher! In terms of pitching here, though we are going action on pitchers, Alex Wood has a 6.15 ERA in day games with a .327 batting average against! The Cubs Jordan Wicks is a rookie but he has been rock solid in his first two big league starts and he went undefeated in his 20 starts in the minors while earning the win in seven of those outings for a perfect 7-0 record. The Giants have lost 5 straight games and are on a 9-20 run in the last 29 games. The Cubs have won 3 straight games and are on a 13-5 run in the last 18 games. Take the Cubs at home Wednesday afternoon. |
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09-05-23 | Giants v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The wind is expected to be blowing out at a good clip here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one on a very hot September day in Chicago. That is actually leading to a big posted total here but we believe it could easily be much higher when you consider how crazy games can get at Wrigley Field when weather conditions are like this! The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He is 2-4 in home starts and opponents hitting .274 against him at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-5 in night games with a 4.18 ERA this season. The Giants are expected to start Ryan Walker here but he is really just an opener for this one and the San Francisco bullpen will be susceptible here. The Cubs are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors since the All-Star Break (only the Braves have scored more runs) and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 49 games! San Francisco should also score well here. SF has been at the other end of the spectrum (compared to Chicago) in terms of scoring runs of late but they have faced some tough pitching. Now they go from facing Steele (16-3, 2.55 ERA) to facing a guy (Hendricks) who has allowed 37 hits in 33 innings in his 6 home starts since the All-Star Break. The Giants, taking advantage of very hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley for this one, should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one and Chicago should stay hot at the plate and score a pile of runs as well. Our computer math models are expecting this one to finish with more than a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Tuesday. |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Diamondbacks to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Arizona is expected to send Merrill Kelly to the mound to start this one. Kelly is 10-6 this season and has been particularly tough at home. Kelly has a 2.96 ERA in games at Chase Field this season and opponents are hitting just .187 against him in those 12 starts. As for Colorado, Peter Lambert will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He went 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his 6 starts last month. In his MLB career, Lambert is 6-12 with a 6.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .303 against him in his MLB career. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 5.32 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Diamondbacks bullpen has not been great but they are better than the Rockies! Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season as, overall, the Rockies are 21-48 this season in road games including losses in 27 of last 35 away from home! Also, they are 22-58 this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, 68 of the Rockies 86 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of Arizona's 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin. The Diamondbacks are tied with 3 other teams - Marlins, Reds, Giants - for the 3rd and final wild card spot (amazing 4-way tie now) in the NL with just 25 games remaining in the season. Arizona is still fighting hard while the Rockies are dead last in the entire NL and simply can't wait for the season to be over. The Dbacks are 38-21 against teams with a losing record and are off B2B losses but had won 8 of 9 home games prior to the tough defeats to the Orioles. All the edges point to the home team and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State -16 v. San Jose State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show |
#233 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State (-) over San Jose State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - SJSU has one game under their belts getting whipped by USC last week 56-28. The Spartan defense gave up over 500 total yards and forced USC to punt only twice in the game. San Jose did put up a solid 28 points on a USC defense that looks to be weak again this season. Last year the Trojans finished outside the top 100 in total defense which is head coach Lincoln Riley’s MO – great offense, bad defense. This week will be much more difficult as the Spartans face an undervalued Oregon State team that had the top defense in the Pac 12 last year allowing 338 YPG. Offensively, the Beavers should have big time success, similar to what USC did last season. This offense is underrated in our opinion. They averaged 29 PPG last season but we expect that to jump to closer to 40 PPG this season. QB DJ Uiagalelei who was the starter at Clemson the last 2 seasons, will be under center. Word from Corvallis is he has looked fantastic leading up to this one. He’ll operate behind a very experienced offensive line that we rate as one of the best in the country. The rushing attack averaged right around 200 YPG last year and with their 3 headed monster in the backfield (Martinez, Newell, and Fenwick) behind that offensive line we look for this to be one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Many might think that because SJSU played last week they have the advantage. That simply isn’t the case. In fact, it’s the reverse. OSU now has game film to prepare for this game while San Jose does not. Since 2005, teams playing for the first time in a season facing a team that played the previous week are 56-33 ATS (63%). We feel that OSU will be able to move the ball on the Spartans nearly as well as USC did last week, however SJSU won’t have the luxury of facing a bad defense this week. Lay it. |
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09-02-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if you call the pitching match-up even - and we do not feel that way as the Blue Jays have an edge - the fact is Toronto has a huge overall team edge and the stronger batting lineup and better bullpen. The Rockies season is over and they have lost 4 straight games and are 21-57 this season against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays are in a dogfight for a playoff berth as they are having another strong season and are also 36-19 this season against teams with a losing record. You can see the odds strongly favor another road win here and Toronto won yesterday's game 13 to 9. The Blue Jays 74 wins this season have included 51 by a mult-run margin. The Rockies 85 losses have included a whopping 67 by a multi-run margin. The Jays Kikuchi is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season. The Rockies Blach has worked out of the bullpen for much of his career and he has a 4.97 ERA in his career and has been hit at a .295 batting average this season. More of the same expected here and the Colorado bullpen is a weakness also. We will lay the run line with the road team in this evening game Saturday! |
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09-01-23 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this one will play out like a playoff game and also is set up to be a pitchers duel. These two teams have identical records and this is a critical game entering the final month of the season. The Brewers are at the top of the Central Division but the Cubs and Reds not too far behind. The Phillies are leading the Wild Card race but have to be concerned also with Cubs and Reds as well as the Giants and Diamondbacks. So this game already will have a playoff feel to it with both teams at 74-59 on the season. Neither team was in action yesterday so the bullpens are in great shape entering this game off an off-day. Based on bullpen ERA the Phillies are ranked 4th in the National League and the Brewers are ranked 2nd in the National League. As for the starting pitchers here, the Brewers Freddy Peralta went 5-0 in August and Milwaukee is 6-0 in his last 6 starts and he has allowed just 7 earned runs TOTAL in those 6 starts. He has been dominant. As for the Phillies Zack Wheeler, he has a 2.68 ERA and has held hitters to a .194 batting average - these stats in his 8 starts since the All-Star break. Both pitchers have been dominating the 2nd half of the MLB season and, as the old adage goes, it is very true that good pitching tops good hitting! Possible playoff preview here and this one will be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 3 m | Show |
#145 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +7 over Minnesota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Huskers start a new regime with former Temple, Baylor, and Carolina Panther coach Matt Rhule at the helm. He turned around the Temple and Baylor programs and we have no doubt he’ll get Nebraska headed in the right direction. Unlike his first year stops with the Owls and Bears, he has some solid talent here at Nebraska. It’s not total rebuild as the others were. The offensive line is experienced with 120 career starts which is 2nd only to Michigan in the Big 10. New QB Sims has started for 3 years @ Georgia Tech prior to this season and has 4500 passing yards, 1200 rushing yards, and 41 TD’s to his credit. He has a big experience edge over new Gopher QB Kaliakmanis who started some games last year for an injured Tanner Morgan but completed only 54% of his passes and threw more interceptions than TD’s. Minnesota has relied heavily on their running game but lost the schools all time leading rusher Ibrahim to the NFL and his back up Potts transferred to Penn State. The Minny O Line ranks 108th nationally in returning starts to they have some inexperience up front as well. The Gophs defense was very good last season but lost 7 of their top 11 tacklers and we think that Nebraska can keep them guessing with this new offense Rhule brings. With Scott Frost at the helm, the Huskers found ways to lose games whether it was poor special teams play, turnovers, etc… They were close to being decent to say the least with 13 of their 17 losses the last 2 seasons coming by one score or fewer (8 points or less). This series has seen 3 games in a row decided by 7 exactly points and we think Rhule will clean some things up and they’ll play more efficiently. This is expected to be a low scoring game (43 is the total) and we like it to be a close one. Take the points here. |
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08-30-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - Stop the presses...the A's actually won a game against a good team yesterday. All kidding aside, it has absolutely been a dreadful season for Oakland and so wins catch some attention especially over good teams. Not only is Oakland 20-63 against teams with a winning record, they are also 7-29 in divisional games and an insane 9-44 in day games! The Mariners had won 12 of 13 games prior to yesterday's loss and they are 25-7 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the Athletics shocking everyone by winning this series by notching B2B wins. Seattle is 43-24 against teams with a losing record and 23-12 in divisional games. Oakland very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The Athletics last 24 losses have included plenty of ugly ones and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 70 of Oaklands 94 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 56 of 75 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. As for the pitchers here, Bryce Miller is now 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in home games and 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in day games! He has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 11 home starts this season. Oakland's Zach Neal has struggled at the minor league level so it is no surprise his major league numbers are unimpressive as well. Neal had a 6.87 ERA in the minors last season and had a 5.40 ERA this season which also has been the 4th straight year at the minor league level in which Neal has allowed at least a .292 batting average! No big surprise that Neal has been hit at a .324 clip for the A's this season and walks have also been an issue for him. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the Athletics pen ranks dead last at 30th in MLB! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 12 of their last 15 wins coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Note the 94 to 30 combined score in those 12 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the home team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-29-23 | Angels v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Tyler Anderson for the Angels and Michael Lorenzen for the Phillies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Angels bullpen certainly should help the cause as well. Taking a look at WHIP, the Angels bullpen (1.48 WHIP) is ranked 27th on the season. The Phillies continue pounding the ball and have averaged 2 home runs per game in the month of August! Huge run at the plate is in progress for the Phillies and, at the same time, you look at this Angels lineup and it is a respectable one even without Trout. Yesterday the Phillies went just 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position and the Angels left 10 men on base yet the game still totaled 10 runs. Today's should get at least that as well. Note that Anderson has been getting roughed up on the season and in his last 3 starts. Anderson is 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA this month. The Phillies Lorenzen had that gem of a no-hitter earlier this month but, even with given some extra time to recuperate and recover after that, his last two starts have been a dose of reality and he has been getting hit hard. More of the same is expected here as our computer math modeling showing 10 or more runs is likely in this one. The Angels 12 of last 19 games have totaled double digits in runs. The Phillies have won 8 of 11 games and 7 of the 11 games totaled double digits. Philadelphia scored an average of 7 runs in these 11 games! Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.
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08-28-23 | Brewers +111 v. Cubs | Top | 6-2 | Win | 111 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers +110 over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Cubs bullpen has been solid this season but the Brewers bullpen is even better and has the 3rd lowest team ERA in the NL for bullpens! The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Wade Miley and Jameson Taillon. The Brewers are heating up again and are the hottest team in the league right now with 8 straight wins! The Cubs have been playing well too but are off B2B wins here and are actually 1-5 the last 6 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more. Chicago has gone 29-36 against teams with a winning record this season and, though solid in divisional games, the Brewers have been even better with a 24-12 record in divisional action. Milwaukee is also 56-37 this season against right-handers. Again, even if there was a starting pitching change we like the road team here. Chicago is expected to start Taillon and he has a 6.08 ERA this month and has allowed a homer in each of his 5 August starts! Look for Milwaukee to make it 9 straight wins as they build on their 8-game winning streak and Miley could certainly play a role in that. The Brewers left-hander has allowed only 8 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts! The Cubs struggles when entering a game on a winning streak continue here as they face the top team in their division. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at an underdog price range of +110. |
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08-27-23 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 17-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Astros are 41-20 this season against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 30-47 against teams with a winning record this season. Detroit has not played well at home this season as they are 8 games below .500 when hosting. The Tigers 11 of last 12 losses have been defeats by a multi-run margin. The Astros have won 11 of last 17 road games and 12 of their last 15 victories have been by 2 or more runs. More of the same expected here as Houston got back on track with a big 9-2 win yesterday and they have the pitching edge here in addition to the overall team edge. Astros bullpen ranks 8th for team ERA while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th for team ERA this season. Houston's slugging percentage in road games ranks 5th in the majors while Detroit's slugging percentage in home games ranks 28th in the majors. In terms of starting pitching, the Tigers Alex Faedo continues to give up big hits and have those trouble spots. Yes, Faedo has been better than last season's 1-5 with a 5.53 ERA on the year but still this season he has a 5.65 ERA in home games and this is a tough spot for him facing the defending champs. Conversely, the Astros again have Justin Verlander on their squad after getting him back from the Mets. Verlander was with the Tigers for more than a dozen years to start his career so this is always a special start for him facing the team he started his career with nearly 20 years ago. Verlander comes into the start producing very well as usual and he has been red hot since the start of July and it has carried into his move back to Houston this month. it continues here against the light-hitting Tigers! We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 56.5 Hawaii @ Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM ET - There will be some contrasting styles of play of display Saturday when the Rainbow Warriors take on the Commodores at Vanderbilt. Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang wants to play fast with his Run and Shoot offense as the Warriors averaged 72.2 plays per game a season ago which was 29th most. Even though the Warriors played fast, it didn’t translate to a lot of scoring. Hawaii was 124th in points per drive, 121st in Yards Per Point Scored at 18.3, 102nd in Red Zone Attempts per game at 2.9 and 103red in offensive TD’s per game. Hawaii also averaged just 4.9 Yards Per Play which ranked 98th in the nation. Hawaii returns 5 starters on that side of the football and even though they want to play fast, it will be tough sledding against a SEC defense. Hawaii had some terrible defense statistics a year ago allowing 34.7PPG but they also faced some top ranked offenses such as Western Kentucky, Michigan and Fresno State. Vanderbilt wants to run the football, dominate possession time, and grind down opponents. The Dores were 119th in pace of play a season ago and also struggled to put up points. Vanderbilt was 120th in points per drive, 79th in Yards Per Point scored at 14.8, 103rd in Red Zone Attempts per game and 86th in offensive TD’s per game at 2.6. Vandy averaged just 5.1 Yards Per Play last season. The Commodores gave up 36PPG last season but take a look at the gauntlet of offenses they faced: Wake Forest, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee who were all some of the highest scoring teams in college football. Last season when these two teams met, they combined for 73 total points. Vandy scored on a 87-yards rushing TD and had two fumble returns for touchdowns. Vanderbilt will again rely on their running game here as they did last season when they gouged the Warriors for over 400-rushing yards. |
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08-26-23 | Bills -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo. |
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08-25-23 | Rangers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Twins have won 7 of last 9 home games and have allowed an average of only 3.3 runs in these 9 games. The Rangers have lost 7 straight games and Texas has scored just 3.1 runs on average in these last 7 games. That said, Texas is likely to struggle again at the plate here as Sonny Gray has held hitters to a .191 batting average in his 4 August starts plus he has a home ERA that is below 3.00 in the last two seasons combined here in Minnesota! The Twins also are likely to struggle at the plate in this one. Minnesota will be facing Dane Dunning and the Rangers right-hander is 9-5 with a 3.19 ERA this season! He has a 2.98 ERA in his road appearances this season. Dunning has struck out 33 in his 25.2 innings this month and has held hitters to a .224 batting average. The Rangers have a rather high bullpen ERA but their WHIP is only 1.24 which ranks 5th in the majors and shows that Texas has some tough pitchers in their bullpen. The Rangers bullpen is certainly better than the ERA suggests and note that the Minnesota bullpen WHIP is also solid at 1.28 and that ranks 12th out of 30 teams in the majors. North wind expected for this one so the wind likely to be blowing in from left-center field which also helps the cause in this one. Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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08-24-23 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Reds off double-header sweep on the road yesterday and now on the road again for this one. That makes this a tough spot for Cincinnati and they are running into a tough hurler too. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly in this one and he is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him in his evening games and just .200 against him in his home starts. The Reds are expected to counter with Brandon Williamson here. He has a 5.24 ERA in night games this season and a 4.43 ERA so far in the month of August. Williamson is facing an Arizona team that has won 9 of 11 games and 7 of those 9 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Reds have now won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 5-12 stretch for Cincinnati and 9 of those 12 losses were by a multi-run margin. That is why, instead of laying the bigger juice on the money line in this one, we turn to the run line for maximum line value here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +125 comeback range with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Seattle has won the first two games of this series by an aggregate score of 20 to 5! The Mariners have won 8 straight games and are 21-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in the finale of this 3-game series. Chicago is 21-50 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 39-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox have lost 20 of 28 games (28.6% winning percentage!) after dropping the first two games of this series! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 23 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 55 of Chicago's 77 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of 71 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-60 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, George Kirby is in his 2nd season in the majors and, just like his rookie season, he has been consistently solid. He is now 18-13 with a 3.30 ERA in his 49 career MLB starts and has held opponents to a .187 batting average in his 3 starts in the month of August. Chicago's Michael Kopech has a poor record again this year and now has a combined 10-20 record since the start of last season. Kopech has particularly struggled since the start of July as he had a 6.61 ERA in his 4 starts last month and has a 9.88 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 4th in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 9 of their last 11 wins. Note the 65-23 combined score in those 9 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-22-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-125) over Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 13 of 14 games and is 17-2 last 19 games plus 62 of the Dodgers 76 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes rookie Bobby Miller providing a strong push for this team! Miller is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in road starts this season! He also is dominating August with a 1.15 ERA in his 3 starts for the month. Now he can dominate a Guardians team that has never faced him! As for Noah Syndergaard against the Dodgers, LA has a number of hitters that have experience against him. Also, Syndergaard has certainly not been at his best this season! He enters this start having allowed at least 5 earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts! More of the same is likely here as the Dodgers stay hot while Cleveland's tough run continues. The Guardians have lost 22 of 36 games. Also, just because they are at home for this series does not mean they will right the ship! Cleveland has lost 7 of last 10 home games! 19 of the last 25 Guardians losses were by 2+ runs! The Dodgers have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their current run of 17-2 last 19 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - The Mariners have won 6 straight games and are 19-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in Game One of this series. Chicago is 21-48 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 37-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox enter this game off a rare win and had lost 18 of 25 games (28% winning percentage!) before that win! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 21 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 53 of Chicago's 75 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 51 of 69 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-58 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, Luis Castillo had a 2.99 ERA and held opponents to a .212 batting average last season and he is at it again this year. Castillo has compiled a 3.23 ERA and has held hitters to a .216 batting average on the year. Chicago's Touki Toussaint is on his 4th team in 3 seasons so that says a lot about him. He is struggling again this year with a 1-5 record and he has a 5.14 ERA in his MLB career. Toussaint is winless with a 6.91 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 7 of their 8 wins before Sunday's tight 1-run win at Houston. Note the 45-18 combined score in those 7 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this one! |
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08-20-23 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#925/926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field for this one. That is actually helping to keep this posted total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks in this one. He has a 7.20 ERA in the month of August and is 1-4 with a 5.36 ERA in home games this season! The Royals are expected to start Jordan Lyles here and he is having a very tough season. Lyles is 2-7 with a 7.19 ERA in road games this season. In day games this season, the right-hander is 1-7 with an 8.73 ERA this year. Lyles has been showing no real signs of any improvement lately and the Cubs are sure to make him pay as they are one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the last 32 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 7 of last 8 games total at least 9 runs. These 8 games have averaged 12 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Hendricks in this one either considering his numbers at home and in his recent action. Yesterday's game reached double digits in runs even though KC went 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position. Look for a better cash-in rate with the run-scoring opportunities in this one and it should reach at least ten runs and our computer math models are expecting it to finish closer to a dozen runs in most projections. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Sunday. |
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08-19-23 | Pirates v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
#978 ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Sonny Gray to start this one. Gray is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his 3 August starts and has struck out 25 while walking just 3 in his 19 innings this month! As for the Pirates, Mitch Keller will be the likely starter here. Keller is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts since the All-Star break and he has been hit at a .340 clip in these 6 outings! On the season Keller has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 5.03 ERA in night games. Also, Twins are heating up again with wins in 4 of their last 5 and their 2nd half record being mediocre overall was certainly impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 13th home game since the break and they have had wins in 9 of 12 home games since the break. Also, 55 of the Pirates 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 37-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Pittsburgh is 28-50 against teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 64 wins this season have featured 48 of the 64 (75%) coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-18-23 | Royals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#921/922 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The wind is NOT expected to be blowing out here. That is actually helping to keep this total lower than it should be when you consider the way these two teams have been trending of late as well as the starting pitching match-up here. The Cubs are expected to start Jameson Taillon in this one. He has a 6.17 ERA in home games this season and is 1-5 with an 8.91 ERA in day games this year! The Royals are expected to start Cole Ragans and the 25 year old has made only 13 starts in his MLB career so he is still getting adjusted to starting at this level. That was evident in his most recent outing. Even though he was at home, Ragans gave up 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings for an average of 2 baserunners per inning. The Cubs are sure to make him pay for a performance like that as they one of the top hitting clubs in the majors over the last 30 days and also have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in the last 30 games! The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball so that also helps the cause here. Kansas City should also score well here. KC has seen 6 straight games total at least 9 runs. These 6 games have averaged 13.5 runs and the Royals have scored an average of 6.7 runs during this stretch. They should have no problems with the offerings of Taillon in this one either considering his numbers at home and in day games. Over is the call in this early afternoon match-up Friday. |
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08-17-23 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - Similar to our play on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last night, Boston's Chris Sale is a recent returnee from injury with one start under his belt since the return. Just like last night's blowout win for LA, we expect a similar result here and this time it is with the Red Sox at Washington. Sale had a stint on the injured list but has had a solid run and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in early June after finding his stride this season with a solid month of May in particular. Over his last 7 starts, Sale has delivered a 2.43 ERA with a solid 48 strikeouts against just 5 walks in the 42 innings spanning those 7 starts. He should dominate here at Washington and he should get plenty of run support. Patrick Corbin is the expected starter for the Nationals and he is having another rough season. Corbin now has a record of 24-53 since the start of the 2020 season and opponents are hitting .323 against him in his home starts this year! Since the start of the 2020 season he has allowed an opponents batting average north of .300 and the Red Sox should pound him here. Boston is 21-13 against left-handed starters this season. On the season, 47 of 63 Red Sox wins and 49 of 67 Nationals losses have been by a multi-run margin. Washington is 30-43 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston has a respectable bullpen while the Nationals bullpen has an ERA that ranks dead last in the National League. As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday. |
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08-16-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games and us 13-1 last 14 games plus 59 of the Dodgers 72 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes Clayton Kershaw. He went 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA in June and held hitters to a .181 batting average for the month. He then had a stint on the injured list but has had a huge season and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in June after 3 months of a solid season! Kershaw began August with a solid 5-inning stint versus Colorado. Now he can dominate the Brewers just like he did in May earlier this season in Milwaukee when he was also matched up with Wade Miley. Kershaw allowed just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. As for Miley against the Dodgers, that was one of his worst starts of the season. Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that start as LA rocked him. More of the same is likely here while the Brewers mediocre run continues. Milwaukee, after yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Dodgers, has gone 11-12 last 23 games. 10 of those 12 Milwaukee losses were by 2+ runs and, on the season, 45 of 55 Brewers losses have been by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 13 wins in their current run of 13-1 last 14 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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08-15-23 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Bailey Ober to start this one. Ober has a 3.03 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .233 against him in those 11 starts. Though he was hit hard in most recent start it was at Detroit and he did strike out 9 in 6 innings in that outing. Look for him to get revenge here against the Tigers as now Minnesota is hosting in this divisional match-up and the Twins have won 7 of 9 home games since the All-Star break. As for the Tigers, Alex Faedo will be the likely starter here. Though he was on the mound when the Tigers just beat Ober and the Twins, he was not overly impressive in that outing including allowing 2 homers. Faedo has been fortunate in that most of his outings have been at home this season but now this will be just his 3rd start on the road this season and he allowed 3 homers in under 10 innings in the two prior starts away from home. We love the fact that the Twins are seeking revenge for dropping 3 of the last 4 games in the recent series loss at Detroit. Also, Twins are off B2B wins and their 2nd half record has been impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 10th home games since the break and, again, they had wins in 7 of 9 home games since the break. Also, 50 of the Tigers 65 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 34-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 27-40 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 62 wins this season have featured 46 of the 62 coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
#906 ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Max Scherzer to start this one. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .215 against him in those 8 starts. Also, he has been rock solid so far this month in August as he has gone 2-0 in his first two starts since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. As for the Angels, Patrick Sandoval will be the likely starter here. Though he has pitched better overall of late, his recent numbers on the road show that the damage away from home definitely could have been much worse. Sandoval, in his last 4 road starts has allowed 19 hits and walked 11 in 20 innings for a 1.50 WHIP. Also, The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.22 WHIP ranks a solid 5th in the majors! Conversely, the Angels bullpen WHIP ranks them in the bottom 5 in the majors! The Angels are off a win but this followed losses in 9 of last 11 games. Also, 46 of the Angels 60 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers are off a loss but this followed wins in 10 of last 11 games! Also, Texas has gone 35-19 against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels are 34-44 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 70 wins this season have featured 61 of the 70 (87% of them!) by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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08-11-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
#975 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The White Sox will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Chicago at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that continues to struggle with command. Michael Kopech is walking far too many batters, not getting enough strikeouts, and the lack of command can lead to mistake pitches at the most inopportune times. Unlike Kopech, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 10 earned runs on only 17 hits while striking out 52 in the 45 innings over his 7 starts since the end of June. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Kopech, in 34 innings since mid-June, has walked 34 batters - yes one walk per inning for the past two months of work! He is lucky the damage has not been even worse but indeed he has allowed 10 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 3 home starts and Kopech is likely to get hammered again here. The Brewers have scored 5.6 runs a game in last 13 games. The White Sox are off a 9-2 win but this followed a 3-6 stretch in which Chicago scored an average of only 2.7 runs scored per game. 50 of 69 White Sox losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 2 runs per game in their last 7 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 10th compared to White Sox ERA ranked 24th on the season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.
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08-11-23 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG. |
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08-05-23 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#977 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 7:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 30-80 and with 58 of their 80 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, the A's enter this game just 19-67 when facing teams with a winning record this season and here they face a tough test as the Giants are 12 games over .500 on the season. The Giants are 7-2 last 9 games and San Francisco certainly holds an edge in the pitching department here. Ross Stripling is likely to draw this start. The A's have only one batter that has ever had a hit against Stripling so their experience against him is limited to say the least. Additionally, Stripling has been better than his full season numbers show. Since late June, Stripling has allowed 12 earned runs in 30 innings. With Oakland struggling so badly and also having little experience against him, Stripling should have a solid outing here. The Athletics are expected to start Paul Blackburn here and he is coming off an ugly July in which he compiled a 6.26 ERA and opponents hit .340 against him in his 5 outings (4 starts). Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Giants bullpen ERA of 3.58 ranks them TOPS in the National League. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with San Francisco being on the road. Based on all of the above edges we like SF here with action on the pitchers and feel the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -105 money range with the Giants should be much higher. Lay it! |
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08-04-23 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10.5 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Patrick Corbin for the Nationals and Graham Ashcraft for the Reds. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as plenty of signs are pointing to the over here including the fact that the Cincinnati bullpen has a WHIP that ranks them 23rd in the majors and the Washington bullpen has an ERA that ranks them 29th in the majors. The Nationals have won 8 of 13 games and have scored an average of 5 runs per game during this stretch. Looking at their last 19 road games, 12 of them have totaled at least 11 runs and these 19 games have averaged 11.5 runs so do not let this big total at 10.5 keep you away! Especially on a warm evening in Cincinnati, these are the type of conditions in this hitter-friendly ballpark that produce big run totals! As for those expected starters, Corbin has a 5.43 ERA on the road and a 6.39 ERA in night games this season and opponents are hitting over .300 against him just like last season! Ashcraft has a lower ERA recently but he has been fortunate as his strikeout numbers are down and he is still giving up quite a few hits too. Overall this season Ashcraft has struggled and at home he is 3-6 with a 6.17 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and only allowed 1 earned run but he had just 2 strikeouts while walking 3 batters, hitting one, and allowing 7 hits. So Ashcraft allowed 11 baserunners in 6 innings and was very fortunate to work out of numerous jams. Ashcraft will not be so fortunate in this go around and the Nationals trending toward high-scoring road games continues. Helping the cause is the fact the Reds are back home where they have scored 38 runs in last 6 games. Also, though they are off a 5-3 road loss yesterday, Cincinnati had scored 30 runs in the 4 games leading into that one. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here and we expect a successful challenge on our part and this game gets to at least a dozen runs. Over is the call in this early evening match-up Friday. |
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08-03-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Luke Weaver for the Reds and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures again and the wind direction being east or southeast at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 17th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 15th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 16-6 game followed Tuesday's 20-9 game and we look for the bats to stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 12-3 their last 15 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of about 7.5 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 14 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last 13 games. Chicago's Jameson Taillon is coming off a solid July but he continues to get hit hard at home. This season, in home starts, Taillon is 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA and opponents hitting .317 against him when he is on his home mound! Cincinnati's Luke Weaver is having another rough season and he is getting hit at a .306 clip this season after an opponents batting average of .335 last season! His struggles are highly likely to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds should answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening. |
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08-02-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
#907/908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, Wednesday at 8:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Brandon Williamson for the Reds and Drew Smyly for the Cubs. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the weather is expected to favor an over with warm temperatures and a south wind blowing out at Wrigley Field for this one. Taking a look at ERA, the Cincinnati bullpen is ranked 15th and the Chicago bullpen is ranked 16th in the majors with each club having about a 4.00 ERA on the season. So the pens are not horrible but they are not great either. Yesterday's 20-9 game is a sign of things to come here as the bats stay hot in this one. The Cubs are 11-3 their last 14 so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer winning stretch. With yesterday's high-scoring win included, the Cubs are scoring an average of 7 runs per game in their 18 games since the All-Star Break. The Reds have won 9 of last 13 games and have averaged 5.3 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Chicago's Drew Smyly is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 1-2 with a 6.65 ERA last month after going 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! Cincinnati's Williamson has been pitching a little better of late. However, Williamson has struggled in evening games this season (5.19 ERA in 10 starts) and we expect that to continue here as the Cubs are a confident bunch (to say the least!) at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Cubs pitching is likely to go tonight means the Reds answer Chicago run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening. |
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08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – New York Mets at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Zack Greinke for the Royals and Jose Quintana for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus both the Mets and the Royals bullpens help the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.16 ERA. The Mets bullpen is not ranked too much higher as they are 18th in the majors with a 4.11 ERA this season. The Royals are off a 2-1 win and that was their 3rd straight win so confidence is growing for this team as they finally are building a longer win streak. Prior to that low-scoring win, 3 straight KC games had totaled at least 11 runs! The Mets have won 8 of last 13 games and have averaged 5 runs scored per game in last dozen games. Kansas City's Zack Greinke is coming off a rough July and this followed a rough June too! He was 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA last month after going 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA in his 5 starts the prior month! New York's Quintana is trying to return to form but he is still working his way back from a rib injury he suffered back in March and he has been hit at a .293 batting average in his first two starts this season which both were last month in July. Quintana has struggled on the road in recent seasons and we expect that to continue here as the Royals are a confident bunch at the plate right now. That coupled with the way the Royals pitching is likely to go tonight means the Mets answer KC run for run in this one as well. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening. |
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07-31-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers just got swept by the Braves in Atlanta. The Braves are having a fantastic season and now Milwaukee goes from facing one of the best teams in the majors to facing one of the majors' worst. The Brewers are now in DC for this series and the Nationals have the worst home record in the N.L. with a 20-33 mark on the season. Also, against teams with a winning record this season, Washington is 25-42. The Brewers, prior to the series with Atlanta, had won 11 of 14 road games. Washington just lost 3 of 4 games and scored a total of only 4 runs in the 3 losses! Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will likely make for another night of misery for the Nationals at the plate while the Brewers should quickly break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season and is having an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 6 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 42 in the 33 innings over his 5 starts this month. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin (6.32 ERA since All-Star break) so this is also a play against situation the way we see it. Irvin is a rookie and still going through some growing pains at the MLB level and this comes as no surprise given his minor league stats either. This season he has had a 5.64 ERA at the AAA level and last year he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level. 45 of 62 Nats losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.5 runs per game in their last 6 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition and their bats should flourish against Irvin and a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the N.L. with a 5.40 ERA this season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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07-30-23 | A's v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Athletics are swinging hot bats and another slugfest is expected at hitter-friendly Coors Field this afternoon. Oakland's last 3 games have all totaled at least 11 runs and the games averaged 13 runs. The first two games of this series at Coors Field each totaled at least 13 runs. Yesterday's game was the 4th time in 5 games that a Rockies game has totaled at least 23 hits and a couple of those games were in Washington DC so it is not just about the Coors Field effect. That said, the Rockies continue to hit the ball well but their weak pitching is an issue. That includes a bad bullpen which will again be exposed in this game Sunday. That's because Ty Blach is the expected starter here but he is more of an opener and it was actually a surprise he even lasted 3 innings in his most recent appearance. Blach has been hit at a .422 clip in his home appearances this season. Also, he has spent significant time in the minors this season and last season he got hit at a .301 clip and he has been hit at a .290 clip in the minors this season. Blach will struggle against a surging A's lineup but we also look for Colorado to have a huge day at the plate here as well. Luis Medina is 0-3 with a 6.94 ERA in afternoon games this season. Medina is also 1-4 with a 7.16 ERA on the road and this is one of the toughest road venues in baseball. Look for another wild one here on a warm afternoon in Denver as this match-up also pits two of the worst bullpens in the majors based on team ERA. Over is the call in this afternoon match-up Sunday.
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07-29-23 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Now off a rare win yesterday, Kansas City is in the perfect spot to be faded. KC got the walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th and now will likely be flat today after the big celebratory win in dramatic fashion last night. The Royals just do not win back to back games very often. Indeed, it has been a dreadful season for Kansas City and they have gone 2-14 the last 16 times they were off a win! Dating back to mid-May, the Royals have won B2B games just TWICE! Incredibly, the longest winning streak for KC is just 2 games this entire season! The Twins enter this game off 3 straight losses and that certainly is noteworthy here. That's because Minnesota has only lost more than 3 in a row a single time this entire season! The Twins, when entering a game on a losing streak of exactly 3 games, have won that 4th game all but one single time this season! Minnesota's record in this situation is 7-1 so you have a fantastic play on situation for the Twins and a solid play against situation for the Royals. This is all before talking about the pitchers which is also a huge edge for Minny here. Bailey Ober gets the call in this one and he has been rock solid over his last 5 starts and has a 2.16 ERA in the month of July. Ober was strong in his only start against KC this season. The Royals Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, got rocked by the Twins in his most recent start against them this season. Also, Lyles allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Yankees Sunday. Lyles is 1-12 with a 6.19 ERA this season! Lyles is 0-6 at home and 0-5 in night games this season. The Royals are 18-56 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 24-12 against teams with a losing record this season. 40 of 54 Minnesota wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. 62 of 75 Royals losses by a multi-run margin this season. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-28-23 | Yankees -119 v. Orioles | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We will go action on pitchers here. The Orioles have Grayson Rodriguez listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Cole and a play against Rodriguez so we are in good shape either way. Cole enters this one having another strong month as batters are hitting just .196 against him in July and he has struck out 31 in 25.2 innings! Grayson Rodriguez has struggled badly for the Orioles in his home starts this season. Rodriguez has a 9.11 ERA with a .348 BAA in his 6 starts at home in Baltimore this season. He could be facing a Yankees lineup rejuvenated by the bat of Aaron Judge who is expected to be activated for this game as he has completed his rehabilitation after injury. The Yankees have won 4 of 5 games. The Orioles have lost B2B games. Also, Baltimore has lost 2 of the last 3 home games. The Yankees are ranked #1 in the majors for bullpen ERA and their pen is also #2 for batting average against. The Orioles bullpen has a solid ERA but the batting average against numbers for the Baltimore pen ranks them 22nd out of the 30 MLB teams. The point is that Baltimore has been fortunate with the low bullpen ERA thus far this season. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for New York to build momentum off the 3-1 win over the Mets Wednesday. The Yankees get the win this evening in Baltimore. |
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07-26-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
#969/970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10 Runs – Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 4:07 PM ET - Yesterday's game was 3-3 entering the 8th inning before a wild finish that saw the Dodgers ultimately prevail 8-7 in 10 innings. That crazy finish is helping lead to line value here as 10 is an awfully big total for this game at Dodger Stadium Wednesday afternoon. Yusei Kikuchi is projected to start for the Blue Jays here and he appears to be back on track after the All Star break. Kikuchi has given up only 1 earned run in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. Remember this is following a month of June in which he had a 2.28 ERA over his 5 starts for the month. Consider his tough pair of outings that occurred just before the All Star break absolutely an aberration. Tony Gonsolin has some interesting stats for the Dodgers of late and we feel it is leading to line value here. Though some of his ERA numbers have been up of late, this is still a guy who has struck out 38 over his last 42 innings. Gonsolin has given up only 4 hits in 10 innings over his two starts since the break. His batting average against is only .194 this season and this is the same pitcher who is 31-9 in his career with a .185 batting average against. Don't be surprised if we see a pitchers duel develop in this one. Remember we talked about yesterday's game being 3-3 entering the 8th and now we remind you that Monday's series opener was 2-2 entering the 8th before that one ended up a 6-3 Blue Jays win in 11 innings. This total has been driven up too high and the pitching will be the story in Wednesday's series finale. We are going strong with the Under in this one. |
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07-25-23 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
#901/902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these pitchers have struggled often this season. Expected starters are Trevor Williams for the Nationals and Austin Gomber for the Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have won 6 of 9 games since the all-star break and have scored 5 runs per game in those 9 contests. Colorado got the 10-6 win here at Washington yesterday and the Nationals have gone 7-5 last dozen games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 12 games. Both bullpens have had struggles this season and that was the case for both clubs again yesterday! After ugly performances in the late innings from each pen yesterday, take a look at their updated numbers here. The Rockies 4.65 bullpen ERA and Nationals 5.50 bullpen ERA ranks them as the bottom two bullpens in the National League this season! As for those expected starters, Williams has allowed 29 hits and 13 earned runs in 22.2 innings over his last five starts. Gomber has a 6.18 ERA this season. He faced the Nationals once this season and allowed 5 earned runs in under 5 innings of work. We know what you are thinking...that was at Coors Field so it deserves an asterisk next to the performance. However, the last time he faced the Nats in DC was in late May of last season and he allowed 8 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in a start that lasted only 1.1 innings! The total on this game is relatively low considering the way these two lineups have been producing as we noted above. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here. Over is the call this evening in our nation's capital. |
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07-24-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had. It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8. Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story. The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48. Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin. The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break. Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games. Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games. 42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin. Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start. His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home. Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance. In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings! Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-23-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 28-73 and with 53 of their 73 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, and even including yesterday's rare upset win over the Astros, the A's enter this game just 5-25 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough spot as the defending champs are looking to avoid a 2-2 series split. The odds certainly favor the Astros bouncing right back as Oakland is just 6-38 in day games this season. Truly incredible numbers that favor Houston to respond immediately off the upset loss here and knock off the A's. The Astros are 21-12 against divisional opponents this year and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 10-4 last 14 games on the road! Hunter Brown is likely to draw this start. Brown has dominated the Athletics in both starts against them this season! Brown allowed just 3 earned runs only 9 hits while striking out 19 in the 13 innings over those two starts. Brown is off a tougher start at Colorado but he really settled in after a tough first inning and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Brown has struck out 35 over his last 24 innings and can again dominate a weaker lineup that has struggled against him this season. The Athletics are expected to start Luis Medina and he is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his 4 day game outings this season. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his start against the Astros this season. Medina allowed 10 baserunners in that outing and also gave up 3 homers to Houston in that one! Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.69 ranks them 5th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 6-4 Friday and that sent the Athletics to their 10th loss in 12 games. Now, after a rare Oakland win last night, the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -130 money range with the Astros should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, Grayson Rodriguez just recently returned from the minors because he had been sent down for a lengthy period in which he was struggling so badly. Rodriguez did not look much better in his return from the minors. Some pitchers just never quite cut it at the MLB level no matter the success they have in the minors. This is one rookie who might end up fitting that bill. Rodriguez has a 7.33 ERA in the majors this season in his 11 starts and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start last week which was his first start since being called up again. As for the Rays, they are expected to start a true ace in Shane McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start since coming back from a minor injury. He just pitched at Texas last week and that is a tough Rangers team and he dominated in that outing. This is not a huge surprise as he has dominated again all season long. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.56 ERA this season and he is coming off a stellar season last year for Tampa Bay too. With yesterday's 3-0 shutout win, the Rays are now 36-16 at home this season. The Orioles are having a strong season too and these clubs are battling it out at the top of the AL East division right now. However, the edges in home field and starting pitching both go to TB here. Also, 29 of the Orioles 38 losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. 47 of the Rays 61 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-21-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 27-72 and with 52 of their 72 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this game just 4-24 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough one as the defending champs are in town. The Astros are 20-11 against divisional opponents this year and 18-10 versus left-handed starters. This match-up is a battle of southpaws and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 9-3 last 12 games on the road! Framber Valdez is likely to draw this start. Valdez has a 2.76 ERA this season and it is no fluke as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last season! Valdez has held opponents to a .227 batting average for the season and also has held opponents to a .227 batting average in his 6-year career. The Athletics are expected to start JP Sears and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 home starts. Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.64 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.70 ranks them 7th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 3-1 last night and sent the Athletics to their 9th loss in 11 games. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -140 money range with the Astros should be even higher. Lay it! |
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07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have now lost 4 straight games. The last time the Braves had a losing season was 2017 and, ironically, that is also the last time that Atlanta has had a losing streak of more than 4 games! In other words, it has been over 5 YEARS since Atlanta has had a losing streak of at least 5 GAMES! The Braves are 33-20 this season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 13-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-16 against all NL teams this season! In terms of the pitching edge here, the Braves Spencer Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen has equally impressive overall numbers but there is one key factor about his numbers. Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of his road versus home performances. This season on the road Gallen is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA. Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games prior to this rare 0-4 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 20 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +110 comeback range with the Braves. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season! The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start. Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season. He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons! The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him. The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies. 7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined. That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season. The hosts should roll big in this one. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-16-23 | Twins -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 10-7 by Minnesota yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 9 starters in the lineup that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .225 or less on the season! Minnesota, on the other hand, has a team slugging percentage of .403 on the season and that is 48 points higher than the Athletics slugging percentage on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Twins have a pitching edge here too. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA in day games this season and also holding hitters to .195 batting average in day games this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send JP Sears to the mound. The lefty has pitched a little better of late but has a 1-6 record on the season plus has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts! Oakland is 14-42 against teams with a winning record this season. Minnesota has won both the first two games of this series and is looking to move to 8-4 against AL West teams this season with another win here. 37 of the Twins 47 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-37 in day games and 54 of their 69 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is that the Minnesota bullpen is strong and ranks in the top 8 teams in the league while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -115 or -120 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers. This is a big game right of the gate in the Central Division as the 2nd half of the season gets underway post-All Star Break. We like the Brewers here as they have won 6 of last 8 road games and are taking on a divisional foe that has lost 3 of 5 home games and has not been great at home this season. In fact, the Reds 23-21 record at home is no better than the Brewers road record which is also 23-21. Each club has played 26 divisional games and Milwaukee is 17-9 in divisional action while Cincinnati is 12-14 in divisional games. All of the above supports a value play on the Brewers here and that is before even analyzing the expected pitching match-up here which is Corbin Burnes (with a big edge) against Graham Ashcraft. Note that Burnes is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in night games and opponents hitting just .202 against him under the lights. Ashcraft, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 7.95 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents hitting .297 against him in his home ballpark. Though Ashcraft had a good start in his only outing so far in July, let us not forget that he got completely steamrolled with a combined 1-6 record in his 10 starts in May/June and a very ugly ERA of 9.66 over the starts spanning those two most recent months. Burnes has been great in both starts against the Reds this season while Ashcraft got destroyed in his only start against Milwaukee this season. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -115 to -120. |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 1:40 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Cleveland rolled 10-6 yesterday and piled up 18 hits. Kansas City is 12-45 this season against teams with a winning record. KC has lost 6 straight games and 10 of 13. The Royals are known for getting blown out and 15 of last 16 losses have been by 2+ runs. Cleveland has won 13 of 19 games. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Shane Bieber dominated the Royals earlier this season and has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs the last 4 starts he has made against KC! The Royals get Ryan Yarbrough back for this one most likely. The southpaw started his MLB career with some solid numbers the first two years but has since gone 14-23 and his combined ERA 2021-23 is a 5.03 ERA and he is on pace for his 3rd losing season the last 4. Remember that Yarbrough has missed significant time due to taking a line drive to the head. He suffered multiple fractures from that and his first start back could be a little rough. Either way, we like the home team here without regard to the starting pitchers. Cleveland is hotter and stronger than the ice cold Royals and the Guardians bullpen ERA is 3.11 and ranks 2nd in the majors while the Royals 5.14 ERA ranks their bullpen 2nd to LAST in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!
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07-08-23 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 7-3 by Boston yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 11 batters that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .208 or less on the season! Boston, on the other hand, had hitters in their lineup from leadoff through the #5 spot that all are hitting better than .250 on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Red Sox have a pitching edge here too. James Paxton is coming off a fantastic June in which he went undefeated in his 5 starts and produced a 1.74 ERA. The Boston southpaw also has a 1.69 ERA in his 3 home starts this season and was solid in his only day game start this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send Paul Blackburn to the mound. The righty has a 5.06 ERA in road starts and a 4.98 ERA in day game starts. Opponents hit .282 against Blackburn last month and he began July by getting rocked for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Oakland is 17-55 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston is on a 3-game winning streak and 34 of their 46 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-34 in day games and 48 of their 65 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is Boston bullpen is respectable and ranks in the middle of the pack while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. Also, Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in the league while Oakland is one of the worst road hitting teams in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Red Sox. Lay it!
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07-06-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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07-05-23 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:40 PM ET - Expected starters are Alec Marsh for the Royals and Pablo Lopez for the Twins. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Royals bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Kansas City bullpen is ranked next to last in the AL so far this season with a 5.06 ERA. This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 which is an excellent value and set-ups don't get much better than this. The Royals 8 of last 10 road games have totaled double digits in runs and we only need 9 runs to be a winner here. The Twins 6 of last 7 home games have totaled at least 9 runs. Kansas City's Marsh has made only 1 MLB start and he allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings and was hit hard plus had issues with his command. Looking at his minor league career stats this should not come as a surprise. Marsh is 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in his minor league career! Now he faces a red hot Twins lineup. The hosts should score very well but we look for plenty of success from the road dog here too. That's because Minnesota's Lopez has struggled at home this season. He has been great on the road but has a 5.94 ERA in his home outings. Also, this will be the 3rd time this season he is facing the Royals so they are very familiar with him. Also, the most recent time was in Minneapolis and KC got to him for 6 runs in 6 innings in that late April outing. Kansas City has scored an average of 5 runs per game over the last 6 games. The Twins have won 4 straight home games and in those victories they have averaged 7 runs scored per win! Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening. |
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07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros, Tuesday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Kyle Freeland for the Rockies and Brandon Bielak for the Astros. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the Rockies bullpen helps the cause. Taking a look at ERA, the Colorado bullpen is ranked dead last in the NL so far this season. The big total might seem a little scary but set-ups don't get much better than this. The Rockies most recent game totaled 23 runs Sunday. The Astros most recent game totaled 23 runs yesterday. Colorado's Freeland has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings in his 3 most recent starts. The Astros Bielak has struggled so much that his most recent start was in the minors. Now he is back at the MLB level but has not started in awhile. Bielak has allowed 12 earned runs on 24 hits in 16.2 innings over his last 3 MLB starts. 9 of the last 15 Astros games have totaled at least 11 runs! Houston has scored an average of 7 runs per game over the last 11 games. 9 of the last 14 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs! Colorado has scored an average of 6 runs in the last 5 games. Over is the call in this one Tuesday afternoon. |
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07-03-23 | Braves -151 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves (-155) over Cleveland Guardians, Monday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals and the Athletics are the only two teams in baseball that have less than 33 wins and each of those clubs have 25 or less wins on the season! What does that have to do with this play? Well, the Guardians are starting rookie right-hander Gavin Williams in this one and he has been solid in his first two starts but those are the two teams he has faced - Oakland and Kansas City. Now Williams is facing an Atlanta team that has won 8 straight games and is the hottest team in the majors plus has the highest winning percentage (.675) in the majors with a stellar 56-27 record on the year. Atlanta is worth a strong rated play in this price range as the Braves are on a win streak and the Guardians are still a game below .500 on the season. Also, Cleveland has been nothing special at home this season and plus they are facing a tough Braves hurler in Bryce Elder in this one. Elder has a 1.43 ERA in his 6 road starts this season and is undefeated in those with a 3-0 record and a .195 batting average against away from home on the year! Atlanta has won 23 of 26 games so when you consider all factors in this match-up, this is a rare opportunity to get one of the best teams in baseball and the hottest team in MLB at a reasonable money line price. We will take advantage and grab that opportunity. Lay it! |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it! |
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06-30-23 | Padres v. Reds OVER 11 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 11 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Graham Ashcraft for Cincinnati and Seth Lugo for the Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as both teams off a stretch of high-scoring games plus match-ups at Great American Ballpark continue to trend toward big runs. Also, the Reds bullpen has an ERA that ranks them in the middle of the pack this season. Recently, neither pen has been special. The Reds last 17 home games have averaged totaling 11 runs apiece with and 11 of last 19 home games totaling at least 11 runs. This is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the Padres are ready for a breakout game at the plate after a tough little stretch at the plate following a run in which they won 9 of 15 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game. San Diego is expected to have Lugo on the mound and he has allowed a .275 batting average this season. As for Reds starter Ashcraft, he has allowed 47 earned runs in just 33 innings over his last 8 starts this season! The Reds are scoring an average of 5 runs per game when at home this season but they also are giving up 5.2 runs per game on the year and the Padres can score well here against Ashcraft and a suspect bullpen. Cincinnati has scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. Over is the call in this one early Friday evening. |
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06-28-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - Taj Bradley the expected starter for the Rays and he has been a strikeout machine. Zac Gallen the expected starter for the Diamondbacks and he has been fantastic at home this season. Gallen is 7-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his 8 home starts this season! So why not a bet on Arizona here rather than the under? Well, we expect the Diamondbacks lineup to struggle with the Rays in this one. Bradley has a 2.13 ERA in his five road starts this season. Also, the Rays bullpen ranks 4th for BAA and 8th for WHIP out of all 30 teams in the majors. The way we see it, the Dbacks lineup struggles here no matter who is on the mound for Tampa Bay. As for the Rays lineup, they are facing a top-notch starting pitcher here. Gallen has been strong for years and has been nearly unhittable this season at home as evidenced by his 1.00 ERA on the year at home. Entering this game, 12 of last 15 Rays road games have totaled 8 or less runs. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one. |
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06-25-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#909/910 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - Expected starters are Anthony DeSclafani for San Francisco and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Diamondbacks and Giants both continue to trend toward high-scoring games. Also, these two bullpens are okay but not great as they rank in that middle 10 of the 30 teams in the majors based on bullpen ERA numbers so far this season. The Arizona bullpen has a 4.12 ERA on the season and the Giants bullpen has a 3.77 ERA on the season. As for the starters here, DeSclafani had a good April but he has not been overly impressive since and, in fact, has been hit quite hard in 4 of his last 6 starts. In those 6 starts he has allowed 22 earned runs in 29 innings! We look for the Diamondbacks to hit him hard as they remain hot at the plate. Also, the Giants should pound Nelson. The Dbacks righty has been hit hard in 4 of his last 5 starts. Nelson has struggled, other than one scoreless outing in this stretch, and has given up 16 earned runs on 30 hits in 19.2 innings in those other 4 starts. The Giants are off a 7-6 win over Arizona and that means a SF game totaled double digits in runs for the 9th time in 11 games. 13 of Diamondbacks last 19 games have totaled at least 9 runs! We expect double digits here as the wind will be blowing out a good clip for this afternoon game at Oracle Park and afternoon games in San Francisco do tend to invite more scoring than chilly night games here in the summer. We look for plenty of runs today regardless of the starting pitchers so we will go with "action" on the pitchers. But, the fact is those starters look to certainly help the cause if they get the ball here! Over is the call in this one Sunday afternoon. |