Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-07-23 | Yankees -115 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -115 over Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here because the Rays have Javy Guerra listed as a starter but he is just an opener and Josh Fleming is expected to get the bulk of the work. That being said, perhaps Tampa Bay changes their mind and uses Fleming as a starter and Guerra comes in later. That is why we select action here and we look for the Yankees to pick up another win after rallying for the 3-2 win yesterday. The Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. He has been absolutely dominant this season with a 5-0 record and a 1.35 ERA. This will be his first start against the Rays this season but last year he had a 1.07 ERA in his 4 starts against Tampa Bay. Cole allowed just 13 hits in 25 innings while striking out 35 in those 4 outings versus Tampa. Look for more dominance today and the key here is that whoever the Yankees have on the mound is likely to get plenty of run support today too. Guerra has struggled with command of his pitches and is walking too many batter again this season just like last season. Fleming suffered a foot contusion in most recent outing. He is expected to be ready here but he struggled with too many walks in 2 of his last 4 starts. He has been a little "off" at times this season and remember he had a 6.43 ERA last season and a 5.09 ERA the year before that. We are not sold on Fleming and we expect the Yankees to build momentum here after the key win yesterday. Tampa Bay has been great this season but there are not many times you are going to be able to bet the Yankees with Cole on the mound (particularly when he is rolling like this!) at a -120 price. The point is that we get line value here because of the Rays ultra strong start to this season. Keep in mind, New York has won 11 of 15 day games this season and the Rays, though certainly still hot overall, have lost 3 of last 7 games at home. Yankees get the win this afternoon. |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3 | Top | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits. |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
#56 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Dallas lost Game 1 due to allowing a shocking 4 goals in the 1st period. The Stars entered the 2nd period down 4-2 and battled back to send the game to overtime only to lose in OT. That said, Dallas did build some momentum after the shocking start to that game and we expect a big bounce back effort here. The Stars have been so strong off a loss. In fact, Dallas is a fantastic 9-1 last 10 times when off a loss. Also, 9 of last 12 Stars wins have been by a multi-goal margin. Amazingly, all 9 of those victories - including 3 of them in their first round series win over Minnesota - were by at least a 3 goal margin. Seattle has been exceeding expectations after their huge upset first round series victory over the Avalanche. However, they come back down to earth here in this one as the Stars defensive play and netminding will be on point after that 5-4 OT loss in the first game. 6 of last 7 Kraken losses have been by at least 2 goals. Also, Seattle's last 2 losses in the Colorado series were by a combined score of 10 to 5. We think this one sets up very well for Dallas to respond huge at home after that ugly first period did them in on Tuesday. Of course the Stars a huge money line favorite for a reason but we see a lot of value with the puck line in this one. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Dallas for a plus money return in this one is the value play here.
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one. |
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05-02-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six. |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 11-7 | Win | 110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season! Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP! The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season. The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago. Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season. This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA! In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games. Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win. What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season. Every loss leads to a losing streak. KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak. Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Monday, 10 PM ET - The O/U on game 1 of this series was the same Total it is here at 227.5 and the two teams combined for 232-points. We expect another similar outcome in Game 2. These two teams combined for 185 field goal attempts in the opener which is 9 more than the regular season average for the entire NBA. Phoenix has the 7th best 3PT% in the league but connected on just 7 of 23 attempts for 30%. The Nuggets scored 125 points on 48% shooting and 43% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect a dramatic change in Denver’s output but do expect the Suns to score more. Phoenix did average 113.6PPG on the year and rated the 13th best offensive efficiency. Phoenix is on a strong 7-1-1 Over streak their last 9 games, Denver is over 4 of their last 5 overall. The last five meetings between these two teams has averaged 244PPG. This game isn’t getting to that number, but based on pace and efficiency ratings this game goes OVER the Total. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points! |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points. |
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04-29-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
#11/12 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Goals - Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, Saturday at 7 PM ET - The Maple Leafs have lost 10 straight times when they have a chance to eliminate an opponent in the post-season. The run continued now in this series with the Game 5 loss to the Lightning which has extended this series to Game 6 down in Tampa Bay. However, though that may seem like it would warrant a play on the Bolts here, we like the total so much more. In fact, we love this total. That's because this season's Toronto team was different. They won a lot of tight low-scoring games in the regular season. As for this veteran Lighting team with multiple championships, they certainly know plenty about winning tight low-scoring games. So this one absolutely has the look and feel of a tight low-scoring game. Keep in mind that Game 5 was the first potential elimination game in this series and it was just a 2-1 game in the 3rd period before a Leafs player bumped into his own netminder and that led to the Lightning goal that gave them a 3-1 lead. Then, if not for an empty netter, the game would have ended at a 3-2 final. Of course the 4-2 final we saw Thursday suits our purposes here just fine but the point is that the game could have easily been a 2-1 or 3-2 type final and we are looking for a real grinder here. If Tampa Bay was able to get the kind of game they wanted in Toronto's barn in Game 5 you know they certainly are going to be able to the same down in their own arena tonight. That said, this will be a game all about protecting leads and playing a safe and measured game. It is an elimination game and we saw a real change in the way Game 5 flowed compared to the earlier games in the series. The Lightning eliminated Toronto from the post-season last year so they know how to slow them down and create the game flow they want. That is not to say that it is easy but this Lightning team has proven more than capable on more than one occasion. Tampa is so well coached too. Also, the Maple Leafs are playing with so much pressure to end their playoff series' losing streak. They'll be squeezing the sticks a little too tight again tonight as a result and this one should be quite the low-scoring battle. Because of the current trending of this series, prior to Game 5, the number is just too big here and so we love the value with the total of 6.5 set on this game as that is also based on long-term reputation rather than the current way these teams are playing! Under is our play here. |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235.5 | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235.5 Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Kings were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season allowing 1.169-points per possession which ranked 25th. In the playoffs they are allowing just 1.130PPP which is 11th best. What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact they are facing the Warriors and one of the best offenses in the league. During the regular season the Warriors O averaged 1.164PPP which was 8th. The Kings offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the postseason also going from 1.195PPP to 1.100PPP. De’Aaron Fox who has a fractured finger on his shooting hand was not 100% in Game 5, but still managed 24 points on 9 of 25 shooting. Fox has scored 27% of the Kings points in the playoffs and clearly didn’t shoot it well last time out. These two teams combined for 239 total points in Game 5 which barely crept over the number in the late stages of that game. We expect both defenses to rise to the occasion tonight and predict a game in the mid-220’s. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here. |
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04-27-23 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over in this one. This total dropped from an 8.5 to an 8 which is giving us extra value. The weather will be decent by Detroit standards for April. We get a lower total here because of Kyle Gibson's numbers and the fact the Tigers are not great offensively. The key here is all the value these market perceptions have led to. Detroit actually hits better at home than they do on the road. Also, the Orioles have been one of the top hitting teams in the majors this season on the road. The Tigers also just faced Gibson and he shut them down in Baltimore. However, now they will get a quick second look at him and he has struggled on the road in recent seasons. This has been a marked dichotomy for Gibson and it has already continued for him early this season in that he is better at home than on the road. Also, the last few times he has pitched at Comerica Park in Detroit, they have been complete disasters as Gibson has been hit very hard. As for Tigers starter Joey Wentz, he just faced the Orioles and it did not end well. Now Baltimore's lineup gets to quickly see him again and Wentz is likely to get hit very hard in the rematch as well. The Tigers have played 8 home games this season and, other than one outlier which was a 1-0 win, the 7 other home games averaged totaling 10 runs per game! The Orioles also have a rare outlier with a 1-0 shutout win on the road but have scored an average of 5.8 runs in their other 10 road games this season. Our computer math model shows a range of 9 to 10 as the most likely occurrence with the final run tally here and many simulations show a final run tally in the 11 to 12 range. Over is the call in this one Thursday evening. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done. |
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04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | Top | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Clippers really struggled offensively in Game 4 at home without Kawhi Leonard and it’s not going to get any better tonight. Even with Russell Westbrook pouring in 37-points the Clippers as a team managed just 100. The average field goal attempts in an NBA game this season was 176 and these two teams have attempted 176 or less in all four games. In the regular season the Suns were the 9th slowest paced team in the league at 98.2 possessions per game. The Clippers were the 7th slowest at 97.9. Thus far in the Playoffs these two teams are averaging 96.3 possessions per game which ranks 12th and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. The Suns get a lot of attention for their offense but in reality it’s their defense that deserves the credit. They rank 6th in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 11th in 3PT% D. The Clippers weren’t on that level but still allowed just 113.1PPG which was 12th best in the NBA. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points but Leonard had 69 of those points. Without him here this game doesn’t get to 224. |
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04-24-23 | A's v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Oakland A's @ Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Ken Waldichuk for the Athletics. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here plus the bullpens help the cause. The Angels bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack - not awful but not great either. The Athletics bullpen however is much worse. Really some of Oakland's bullpen numbers are hard to believe as they are so off the norm (K:BB ratio for example). Oakland ranks dead last for bullpens so far this season including a 6.99 ERA. The Angels are 5-3 L8 home games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games plus they took 2 of 3 at Oakland earlier this season and averaged 6.7 runs in the 3 games. We'll see plenty of runs here! Oakland has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 6 road games but their problem is they can stop no one! The A's have allowed 8 runs per game this season which is unreal considering we are 22 games into the season. The A's pitching, including their beleaguered bullpen, has been truly dreadful. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in all 3 of his starts this season and has allowed 12 earned runs in his three outings even though those starts have totaled only about 12 innings combined. The A's Waldichuk has allowed 11 earned runs in about 9 innings in his two road starts and the Angels have some hitters who have enjoyed success against him. Over is the call in this one Monday night. |
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04-24-23 | Bucks -5.5 v. Heat | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami. |
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04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think. |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points. |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -115 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We love the situation here to back the home team Knickerbockers minus the short number. After winning Game 1 of this series, the Knicks lost badly in Game 2 by 17-points. In Game 1 most numbers were pretty even for both teams, but the Knicks enjoyed a +13 rebound night which was the difference. Game 2 saw the Cavs out-board the Knicks by 7 but the big separator was shooting as the Cavs hit 49% overall and 42% from beyond the arc. New York shot just 37% overall and 24% from Downtown. The Knicks will get great support at home tonight where they were 23-18 SU on the season with a +/- of +4.3PPG on the year. Cleveland was 20-21 SU away from home with an average margin of victory of +2.6PPG. If we look at the season series the Knicks won 3 straight after a loss way back in October. Two of those wins were by double-digits. The Cavs were just 4-9 ATS as a dog of less than +4.5 points, while the Knicks were 11-9 ATS as a favorite of -4.5-points or less. New York has won 10 of their last twelve at home and we expect them to win this game by a comfortable margin. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one. |
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04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#1/2 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Toronto needs to respond on home ice here to avoid an 0-2 hole in this series. Certainly the Maple Leafs have the firepower on offense to do just that. The problem is that their goaltending just can not be trusted. Matt Murray is still out (concussion recovery) which means little-used Joseph Woll is the only option behind Ilya Samsonov right now for Toronto. That said, Samsonov is getting the start again tonight but he allowed 6 goals in the Game 1 loss to the high-powered Lightning. This is why we like the over so much here. We are confident that the Leafs are going to come out strong in this critical Game 2 match-up but how can anyone trust their goaltending? Year after year it is a problem for Toronto and ends up being their downfall in the post-season. That said, let's not forget that game one was a 3-2 game with 6 minutes to go in the 2nd period before the Leafs fell apart. The point is they can come out and compete hard here but they are going to have to score plenty to top the Lightning here. Don't be surprised if each club scores at least 3 goals here as this one flies over the total. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals in last 9 games dating back to late March. 13 of the Maple Leafs last 16 home games have totaled at least 6 goals and those games have averaged 7 goals! Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is a great goalie but he was not as dominant this season and also has allowed 13 goals in his last 3 starts. Over is our play here. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team! |
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04-18-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
#58 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line (-1.5 goals +140) over Seattle Kraken, Tuesday at 10 PM ET - Every single game between these teams in the regular season was won by the road team as the visitors won all 3. Also, all 3 were decided by just a single goal. So why this play? It is because now the post-season has arrived and the cream rises to the top and we look for Avalanche and their post-season experience plus home ice edge to help lead the way to a big win here over a Seattle club in the post-season for the first time. The Kraken lost their final two games of the regular season each by a multi-goal margin. There were tight games in yesterday's first day of playoff action but the Kraken have had 11 straight games decided by a multi-goal margin and we like Colorado here. The Avalanche have won 8 of last 10 playoff games on home ice. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model as the Avalanche carry their post-season confidence and dominance from last year right into the post-season. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Colorado for a plus money return in this one is the value play here. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix. |
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04-18-23 | Angels v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Jose Suarez for Angels and Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the power-hitting of these two clubs coupled with the westerly wind direction and a cool (but not cold) evening at Yankee Stadium is likely to lead to a slugfest here! Look for the Angels to build off yesterday's win at Fenway Park but they also used up a ton of bullpen in that game. A long rain delay in that early game at Boston after Ohtani pitched the first two innings meant that Angels had to use a lot of bullpen for the final 7 innings of that game. That one was a 5-4 LA win and we look for even more runs to be piling up in this early evening game in the Bronx Tuesday. The Yankees bullpen has been solid this season but the Angels are 5-4 L9 road games and have scored an average of 7 runs in the 5 wins and allowed an average of 7 runs in the 4 losses. We'll see plenty of runs here! The Yankees will take advantage of a mediocre LA bullpen that got a lot of work yesterday. New York has averaged scoring 5 runs per game this season and had averaged scoring 6 runs in their first 9 victories this season before a 2-0 pitchers duel win with Cole on the mound Sunday. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Suarez has struggled in both his starts this season and has allowed 10 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled only about 8 innings combined. The Yankees Schmidt also has struggled in all 3 starts this season and he has an 8.44 ERA and has been hit at a .340 clip so far this season! Schmidt has allowed 3 homers in less than 11 innings of work this season. Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening. |
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04-17-23 | Warriors +1 v. Kings | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors. |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points! |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1. |
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04-15-23 | Mets v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – New York Mets @ Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Both these starting pitchers have struggled this season. Expected starters are Shintaro Fujinami for Oakland and Carlos Carrasco for the Mets. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as we look for today's match-up to pick up right where yesterday's game left off. That one was a 17-6 Mets win and we look for the runs to keep piling up in this day game in Oakland. The Mets have scored an average of 7 runs in their 8 wins this season. In New York's 5 most recent losses, they have allowed an average of 7.4 runs per game. That is why, win or lose, Mets find themselves in a high-scoring game Saturday the way we see it. Oakland opened the season with a 2-1 win. Since then, 10 of their 13 games have totaled double digits in runs. Those 13 games have averaged 13 runs per game! We only need 10 to be a winner here and 9 is a push. We like the odds on this one getting to double digits in runs with consideration to the above. About the expected starting pitchers, Fujinami has more walks than strikeouts this season and has allowed 13 earned runs in his two outings even though those starts have totaled less than 7 innings combined. Carrasco also has more walks than strikeouts and he has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his two starts though he failed to complete 5 innings in either start. Carrasco has allowed 3 homers in less than 9 innings of work this season. The Mets bullpen has been middle of the pack so far this season while the Athletics relievers ERA ranks 29th out of 30 teams so far this season. Over is the call in this one Saturday afternoon.
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04-14-23 | Bulls +6 v. Heat | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire. |
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04-13-23 | Hurricanes v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#13/14 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 6.5 Goals - Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game in the playoff standings. Carolina needs a win to capture the Metropolitan Division. They control their own destiny since they have one more point than the New Jersey Devils. Florida needs a win to avoid finishing as the 2nd wild card and facing the Boston Bruins in the first round. Like the Hurricanes, the Panthers control their own destiny since they are only one point behind the Islanders and New York played their final game of the regular season last night. So if the Panthers win they avoid facing a Bruins team that had a record-breaking NHL season. That said, this game tonight absolutely should play out as a tight defensive playoff-like battle. The Hurricanes were the 2nd best team this season in terms of goals allowed and have two great goalies in Andersen and Raanta. The Panthers could soon get their top goalie Bobrovsky back but with the way Lyon has been playing, how can Bobrovsky even be re-inserted as the #1? Lyon is a stellar 6-0-1 with a 1.55 GAA and .952 save percentage in his last 7 starts for Florida! The Panthers have allowed just 1.4 goals per game in regulation time of their last 7 games! The Hurricanes 8 of last 9 games have totaled 5 or less goals! Carolina has allowed an average of only 2 goals per game last 7 games! These teams are both already playing play-off hockey! Low-scoring battle should be on tap here as these teams both have been getting strong goaltending and stellar defense of late. We look for 5 goals here at most but certainly 6 seems like would be the maximum given the importance of this game in the standings and the current trending of these two clubs and so we love the value with the big total set on this game based on Florida's long-term reputation rather than the current way they are playing! Under is our play here. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 226.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s start with the average NBA total points scored in a game this regular season which was 228.6 points per game. We don’t see this game being ‘average’ based on several factors. We will start with the Hawks defense that is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.164-points per possession. That is the second worst of all the playoff teams (Kings are 25th). Since the All-Star break the Hawks have given up 121.7PPG. They rank 26th in PPG allowed, 25th in opponents FG%, but are 10th in 3PT%. The Hawks are also 19th in defensive rebounding. The Hawks beat teams by out-scoring them. Atlanta was 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.167PPP and were the 9th fastest paced team in the league. Since the break they have averaged 123.7PPG. Miami has gone through their struggles offensively this season, but they are clearly trending up to end the season. Prior to the All-Star break they were the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 108.3PPG. Since the break that average has jumped to 112.4PPG. In their last five games the Heat have the 1.251PPP which is the second highest average in the league behind the Warriors. Miami is known for their defense, but they haven’t been as good on that end of the court this season as they’ve been in past years. Case in point, last season the Heat were 5th in defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091PPP. This season the Heat are allowing 1.135PPP. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight. |
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04-09-23 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 108-113 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels. |
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04-08-23 | Flyers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
#21/22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 5.5 Goals - Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Flyers are expected to start Carter Hart here. He has played sparingly the past two weeks and so he could be rusty. This would be just the 2nd start for Hart in two weeks. Also, he is struggling on the road. He is known for being stronger on home ice and that has been the case again with recent road struggles putting a highlight on the home/road dichotomy. Hart has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in his last 6 road starts. The Flyers have been eliminated from post-season contention for quite some time now but Philly would love nothing more than to put a dent in the playoff hopes of the Islanders. To do that though, Philly will have to score well. Their defense has been weak of late overall and it has been part of a rough season for Philadelphia. The Flyers have allowed at least 4 goals in 5 straight games - all losses - and the average allowed was 4.4 goals. This total at 5.5 is just too low. The Flyers will put up a fight and should enjoy some success in the offensive zone but just will not be able to stop the Islanders. New York enters this game off a 6-1 win and has scored at least 5 goals in 3 of last 4 home games. The Islanders averaged 6 goals scored in those 3 home games. They will pressure Philly early and often in this game but should allow a few goals along the way too. Over is our play here.
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 230 | Top | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 230 Portland Trailblazers @ LA Clippers, 4 PM ET - Both teams have games again tomorrow so it’s highly unlikely they are going to let this game turn into a fast-paced game. Especially the Clippers who still have seed positioning to play for AND need to manage minutes for older players such as Kawhi. This line is clearly too high as the Blazers just faced a Spurs team that is one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and one of the worst defensively and that total was 227. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the league and are around average in defensive efficiency. Portland has 14 players on their injury report as of today and are basically trotting out a G-league team. The Blazers offense has been hit hardest as they’ve scored 96 or less points in 3 of their last eight games and outside of one high scoring game against the Spurs, have averaged 101PPG in 7 of their last 8. With the Clippers content to get a win without exerting themselves we can’t see this game getting into the 230’s. |
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04-07-23 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - This is going to be a glorified AAU game and we don’t expect either team to play any defense in this one. The Rockets have given up 120 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and 130+ in three of those. Charlotte has been equally as bad allowing 120 or more in 4 straight games and an average of 126PPG in those four games. Houston ranks 28th in points allowed per game at 118.8, 22nd in opponents FG% and 28th in 3PT% defense. Charlotte ranks 22nd in PPG allowed at 117.5 per game, 19th in FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. The most critical defensive metric though is defensive efficiency as the Rockets are 29th in the NBA allowing 1.197PPP, while the Hornets are 20th at 1.158PPP. Charlotte has been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA all season long and the Rockets have picked up their tempo in their last five games. With nothing left to play for these two teams won’t expend any energy on the defensive end of the court and it will lead to a high scoring game. |
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04-07-23 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 3:05 PM ET - Extra rest is not exactly welcome this early in the season. Lineups are trying to get their timing going at the plate. Starting pitchers are trying to get settled into their regular routine. That said, this is a very tough spot for the Reds and particularly Hunter Greene. Cincinnati was supposed to play the Cubs Wednesday in the finale of that series but it was rained out. Then the opener of this series with the Phillies was rained out. Greene started the season opener for Cincinnati so he was supposed to pitch on more typical rest Wednesday but did not. Then Thursday's game was rained out and, remember, the Reds had an offday last Friday too. So they have played just 4 games in the past 7 days. The hitters are impacted and Greene is definitely impacted here. As for Wheeler, he pitched Saturday so he is in good shape here. Wheeler struggled in his first start this season, as did Greene, but Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a bad Reds team here. This is Cincinnati's first road game and the Phillies first home game this season. Reds were 29-52 in road games last season. On the year last season, 77% of the Reds losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a 53-36 run in home games including 20-7 last 27. Phillies 6-1 L7 against the Reds and 4-0 L4 at home and the 6 wins by an average victory margin of 3 runs. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler on good rest over Greene on too much rest, the defending NL Champs over one of the worst teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!
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04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - This game has a playoff feel as both teams could use a win here as they jockey for a better playoff position. Miami needs a win to lock in a spot in the postseason party and avoid a play-in situation. With a win the other night over Boston the Sixers still have a shot at catching the Celtics as the 2nd seed. It starts with defense for both teams as they rank 8th and 9th in defensive efficiency ratings. Both teams play slow too, with Miami ranking as the 2nd slowest team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, the Sixers are the 4th slowest. Philly is one of the most efficient offenses in the league but Miami is 25th. A big reason why the 76ers rank so high in OEFF is Joel Embiid. Embiid has struggled against the Heat averaging just 21.3PPG in the last six meetings which is well below his season average of 33.2PPG. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they’ve produced 215 and 200 total points. We expect another Under here. |
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04-06-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 7.5 or 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their opening starts. Expected starters are Chris Sale for Red Sox and Spencer Turnbull for Tigers. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Tigers are allowing 6 runs per game on the season and the Red Sox are allowing 6 runs per game as well. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Sale got hammered at home by the Orioles in his season opener. Keep in mind, he has not logged much MLB action since the 2019 season. He still carries a certain reputation in the marketplace but is not exactly the same pitcher he once was. Sale had a 4.80 ERA and a .288 BAA in spring training and has been homer prone, including his regular season opener, so far in 2023. As for Turnbull, he had a 4.50 ERA and was decent in spring training but then got rocked by the Rays in his regular season opener. The total on this game is low considering and we like the downward move from an 8.5 to a 7.5 as we are going to challenge these starts and these bullpens to turn things around here. We just do not see that happening. Historically, Turnbull has struggled much more in day games than night games and this is an early start in Detroit today. Also, Turnbull trying to come back from Tommy John surgery and missed last season. Tigers offense slow out of the gate this season but this is their home opener and that should get them going. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in the scoring department this season and should bounce back off yesterday's disappointing home loss. Over is the call this afternoon.
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04-05-23 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation. |
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here. |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State v. Connecticut UNDER 133.5 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
#711/712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 133.5 Points – San Diego State vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We were on the Under in the SDSU vs FAU game on Saturday and came up short in the 72-71 final. Both teams shot very well from deep combining to make 18 of 40 three point attempts (45%). They also averaged 1.11 PPP and 1.12 PPP which was well above what those 2 defenses gave up this season (SDSU 0.90 PPP allowed / FAU 0.95 PPP allowed). They also combined to attempt 43 FT’s on the night. All of that led to a higher scoring game than expected. The UConn vs Miami game stayed Under by nearly 20 points (131 points scored and total was 150ish). The Huskies defense has been fantastic during this impressive tourney run shutting down a number of teams that have much better overall offenses than the SDSU team they will face on Monday night. UConn allowed 59 points to Miami who ranks as the 6th most efficient offense in the nation and averages 80 PPG. The game prior to that the Huskies faced a Gonzaga offense that ranks #1 nationally in efficiency and held them to 54 points which is 34 points below their season average of 88 PPG (#1 nationally). Now they face a San Diego State offense that ranks 68th nationally in offensive efficiency and has averaged just 67 PPG in the NCAA tourney. We expect the Aztecs won’t reach 60 points in this game. On the other end of the court, SDSU’s strength is obviously on the defensive end where they rank 4th nationally in efficiency and 3rd in the country in eFG% allowed. Prior to allowing FAU to hit 71 points, the Aztecs had given up an average of just 57 PPG in the tourney. The Owls were able to be successful from 3 point land in that game (44%) but leading into that one, the San Diego State defense had allowed opponents to make only 17% of their 3’s in this tourney. They rank 3rd nationally on the season defending the arc which could be a problem for a Connecticut team that relies heavily on the 3 point shot. The Huskies have faced 4 fast paced teams in the Big Dance and the one slower paced team they played (St Mary’s) the 2 teams totaled 125 points. Both of these teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo so this shouldn’t be a fast paced game. UConn’s offense put up 72 on Saturday vs a Miami defense that ranks 99th in efficiency and prior to that they faced a fast paced Gonzaga team whose defense ranks 73rd in efficiency. They take a big step up here taking on one of the top defensive teams in the country. We don’t expect UConn to reach 70 in this game and we already mentioned that SDSU will have a tough time getting to 60. Under is the play in the National Championship Game. |
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04-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 234 | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 8:40 PM ET - You will want to watch the pregame injury report and confirm Nikola Jokic is in the lineup for the Nuggets before making this wager. The Warriors are going to play small ball here and use Draymond Green at the Center position. That means they are planning a fast-paced game and will push tempo. Golden State is the fastest paced team in the league at 101.7 possessions per game. They are 3rd in scoring at 118.3PPG. They should score at will against this Nuggets defense that is barely above average in defensive efficiency and rank 20th in opponents FG% against. Denver doesn’t play fast but they are highly efficient offensive with the 3rd best OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.180PPP. Golden State has historically been a great defensive team but that hasn’t been the case this season as they check in as the 19th worst defensive efficiency team allowing 1.149PPP. The Nuggets will put up points with their 10th scoring offense and the #1 ranked FG% unit at 50.6% and 2nd ranked 3PT% offense at 38.4%. In the two clashes between these two teams this season they have produced total points of 251 twice. We expect another high scoring game today. |
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04-02-23 | 76ers +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points. |
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04-01-23 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:30PM ET - These two teams just met last Tuesday in L.A. with the game finishing with 241 total points. The O/U number on the game was 225 so we are getting a little extra value here. There were a few anomalies in that game as the Pelicans shot extremely well at 53% overall and they made 21 of 34 3-pointers or 62%. Those percentages were well above their season averages of 48% FG% and 36.3% 3PT%. The Clippers also had an above average shooting night at 52% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Again, both of those numbers are well above the Clippers 47.6% FG% and 38.2% 3PT%. The Clippers are about average in defensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession allowed while the Pelicans are 5th best. In their most recent 5-games the Pels have the best PPP allowed at 1.019PPP. Prior to the hot shooting game in the previous meeting the 4 clashes prior between these two teams all resulting in 219 or less points. Bet UNDER here. |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 38 m | Show |
#701/702 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 132 Points – Florida Atlantic vs San Diego State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This match up is very similar to FAU’s Sweet 16 game vs Tennessee. We were on the Under in that game (129) and the 2 combined for just 117 points. We see a similar outcome for this game. SDSU and Tennessee compare very favorably in offensive efficiency (not a strength of either) and defensive efficiency (both top 5 in the nation). They are also almost identical in tempo with both being slow paced. The Aztecs defense has been great all season but they’ve stepped it up another notch in the Big Dance where they’ve allowed an average of just 57 PPG and held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 60 points. The only team that topped 60 points on SDSU was Alabama who averaged 82 PPG (7th nationally) but only had 64 vs the Aztecs. We were on the Over in SDSU’s most recent game vs a very efficiency Creighton offense who wants to push the ball and that game ended 57-56. FAU’s defense is underrated. They rank 29th nationally in defensive efficiency and 14th in eFG% allowed. The Owls have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 70 points or less and 3 of those opponents were fast paced teams (Memphis, KSU, and Farleigh Dickinson). The one slow paced team they faced was Tennessee and we mentioned how that game turned out. We don’t expect many 3 pointers in this game which will help the Under. FAU likes to shoot 3’s but they are facing a San Diego State defense thar ranks 2nd nationally defending the arc. In this tournament alone, the Aztecs have allowed opponents to make only 17% of their triples! On the other end of the court, San Diego State is not a great 3 point shooting team and they don’t shoot many (just 28% of their points come from deep – 277th nationally). The Final 4 is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston which is a huge NFL stadium. It’s often very tough to shoot in a venue like this as the backdrop is completely different than what teams are used to. This will be the 14th basketball game ever played at NRG Stadium and 8 of the first 13 went Under (62%) by an average of 6 points. Low scoring grinder here and we like the Under. |
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03-31-23 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - If the Playoffs where to start today this would be the 7/8 matchup play in game. In a playoff like atmosphere for both teams we like the defenses to rise to the occasion. Prior to the All-Star Break the Lakers were 25th in points allowed per game, giving up 118.2 per. The Timberwolves were better allowing 115.8PPG. Los Angeles has improved dramatically since the trade deadline and are giving up just 111PPG which is 6th best in the league. Minnesota has slipped slightly allowing 116.5PPG. Both teams were scoring more prior to the break too. The Lakers rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the season while the Wolves are 10th giving up just 1.139-points per possession. Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but recently (in their last five games) each team has slowed significantly in pace of play. Both teams are near average or below in offensive efficiency. These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 212 and 213. This game won’t be that low but it will be around 222. |
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03-30-23 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points. |
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03-30-23 | UAB -1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
#665 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -1.5 over North Texas, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Both being from Conference USA, these 2 met 3 times this season with UNT winning 2 of those games. However, one of those wins for the Mean Green came without UAB’s top player Jordan Walker, in the lineup. Walker is the key for UAB as he leads the team in scoring at 22 PPG while averaging over 4 assists per game. In their other 2 games vs UNT with Walker in the lineup, UAB lost in double OT on the road by 3 points despite making only 3 FT’s with the Mean Green making 23 freebies. The other meeting was in the CUSA tourney and UAB dominated more than their 76-69 win would indicate. UAB led by 20 in that game (UNT never led) and the Blazers were ahead by double digits for 18 of the 20 minutes in the 2nd half. That was the most recent meeting only a few weeks ago on March 10th. While North Texas has a top notch defense (18th in efficiency) the UAB offense has seemed to figure out how to attack them. In the 3 games vs UNT, the Blazers shot a combined 45.2% vs a team that allowed 39% on the season. The Mean Green shot just 41% combined in those 3 games. In the last 2 meetings with Walker on the court, UAB averaged 1.13 and 1.11 PPP vs a team that has allowed 0.94 PPP this year. In their NIT semi final games, North Texas never led vs Wisconsin until 2 minutes remaining in the game. They won by just 2 points despite the fact the Badgers didn’t score a single point in the final 9 minutes of the game. The Blazers beat a very solid Utah Valley team in OT but they led for much of the game while UVU’s largest lead was 2 points. Since Walker returned from injury, the Blazers are 14-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and this North Texas team in OT. UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. UNT is not at 100% with starting center Ousmane not in Las Vegas due to a personal situation. While his back up Sissko has played well, Ousmane will be missed here as he had solid games in the 3 meetings vs UAB with 34 points and 17 rebounds combined in those games. At full strength we have UAB as the better team and we’ll lay the small number in the NIT Championship Game. |
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03-29-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits. |
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03-28-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans. |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB -2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
#664 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB -2.5 over Utah Valley State, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - UAB is a veteran team with 5 senior starters that is playing at the top of their game right now. They were without their best player, Jordan Walker, for 5 games in mid January and since he returned the Blazers are 13-2 with their only losses coming at the hands of Florida Atlantic (in the NCAA Final 4) and North Texas in OT (in the NIT Final 4). They were FAVORED by 2 points in their loss in the CUSA Championship game vs FAU and now laying basically the same number vs Utah Valley State. Since February 1st, which coincides with Walker’s return from injury, UAB ranks as the 23rd most efficient team in college basketball ranking in the top 35 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are coming off a very impressive 8 point road win @ Vanderbilt who was on a huge roll winning 12 of their previous 14 games including wins over Kentucky (twice), Tennessee, Auburn, and Michigan during that stretch. The Blazers won that game on the road by a solid margin despite taking 11 fewer shot attempts and making only 2 of 15 (13%) from beyond the arc. UAB was tested in what was a much better conference than most anticipated. Conference USA has a team in the Final 4 (FAU), 2 teams in the NIT Final 4 (UNT & UAB) and Charlotte won the CBI tournament. UVU was the top team in the WAC this season along with Sam Houston State. Those were the only 2 teams ranked inside the top 100 per KenPom and they finished just 1 game apart in league play with UVU winning the conference. Interestingly, Sam Houston State was also in the NIT and played UNT from Conference USA and got destroyed by 20 points. Just something to make note of as we rate North Texas and UAB very close overall. Utah Valley made it to Vegas by topping Cincinnati 74-68 at home. The Wolverines had a huge edge at the line in that game attempting 19 more FT’s than the Bearcats. These 2 have very comparable, solid defenses, but UAB is more efficient offensively (1.12 PPP to 1.08 PPP) and they’ll have the best player on the floor in Walker. The Blazers should get plenty of extra opportunities as they are a great offensive rebounding team (8th nationally) facing a UVU team that ranks outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding. UAB also creates turnovers at a high rate (19%) while the Wolverines turn the ball over a lot (19%). We like UAB to cover this short number on Tuesday. |
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03-27-23 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 224.5 | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - The Bulls are coming off a big upset win over the Lakers on Sunday which makes this the 2nd night of a back-to-back. This is also their 3rd game in 4 days and 4th in 6. The Clippers meanwhile are coming off a home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday night. New Orleans shot ridiculously well overall by hitting 53% from the field and by making 21 of 34 3-pointers. Those numbers are clearly an anomaly as the Clippers are solid defensively. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bulls allow the 7th fewest points per game this season, rank 6th in opponents FG% and 11th in 3PT% defense. Offensively neither team is great with the Bulls ranking 20th in scoring at 113.4PPG and the Clippers 23rd at 112.8PPG. The Clippers have stayed Under at home in 19 of their last 26 games when facing a team with a sub .500 record. The Bulls are 4-1 to the Under when playing without rest and those games have averaged 218PPG. When these teams met in late January, they produced just 211 total points. Expert another UNDER here. |
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03-27-23 | Oilers v. Coyotes OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#51/52 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 7 Goals - Edmonton Oilers at Arizona Coyotes, Monday at 10 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Oilers are expected to start Jack Campbell here as he was in the starters crease at this morning's skate. Campbell has just 1 win in his last 6 starts and has about a 5.00 GAA during this stretch. Campbell has allowed at least 4 goals in all 6 of these starts! The Coyotes have allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games and it has not mattered who is in goal. Included in the stretch was a 4-3 OT loss to the Oilers and Edmonton also won the first meeting this season by an 8-2 count. We look for the Coyotes to again struggle to stop the Oilers here but also Arizona is known for competing well at home and will score some goals against an Oilers team known for struggling in its own zone. The Coyotes have scored an average of 4 goals in last 8 home games! 8 of last 12 Arizona games have totaled at least 7 goals. 24 of last 32 Edmonton games have totaled at least 7 goals. The Oilers are off a loss and will be ready to respond here after losing at home to Vegas on Saturday night. Edmonton is off 4-3 OT loss and 4-3 OT win last 2 games and this followed a stretch in which Oilers scored at least 4 goals in 14 of 18 games. One of, if not the, most dangerous teams in the league and coming off a loss, we look for plenty of scoring in this one. The Edmonton offense responds but continues to have some issues keeping the puck out of their own net especially if Campbell gets the start as expected. If he does not start it would be Skinner and he has allowed at least 3 goals in 3 straight games. Over is our play here.
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03-26-23 | Nets v. Magic -2 | Top | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic -2 vs Brooklyn Nets, 6:10 PM ET - The Orlando Magic catch the Nets in a favorable scheduling situation as Brooklyn is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile the Magic have been off since the 23rd. Orlando likes to play fast and will dictate tempo here as the rested home team. The Magic are averaging 100.1 possessions per game over their last five games which is 6th fastest in the NBA. Brooklyn has faced a gauntlet of playoff caliber teams in Miami, the Cavaliers twice, Denver and Sacramento so the mental and physical fatigue will catch up to them here. Orlando clearly hasn’t quit on the season as they’ve won 3 of their last four games and also played the Suns and Lakers well in 6-point and 3-point road losses. Orlando has covered 5 straight games overall. |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State OVER 134.5 | Top | 56-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#657/658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134.5 Points – San Diego State vs Creighton, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - Creighton’s offense has been rolling in the NCAA tourney scoring 72, 85, and 86 points. Their last 2 games they averaged 1.21 PPP and 1.24 PPP vs Baylor and Princeton reaching 161 total points in each of those wins. Since March 1st the Blue Jays have averaged 82 PPG on 1.20 PPP which ranks them 16th nationally during that time period. The Aztecs averaged 73 PPG on the season and they just put up 71 points on Alabama who has the 3rd most efficient defense in the nation. Bama only had 64 points but had a brutal night from beyond the arc making just 3 of 27 (11%) and that game and they put up only 0.86 PPP. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 35% in the game and it still reached 135 total points despite that brutal offensive effort. We expect the Aztecs offense to play much better here vs a Creighton defense that allowed 75 points to Princeton on Friday and has given up at least 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Creighton games have totaled at least 135 points in 11 straight games. The Jays will want to play fast and while San Diego State is a slower paced team, when they fast an up tempo team on Friday (Bama) the 2 teams combined for 140 shot attempts and 42 FT attempts. This total is set too low in our opinion and we’ll take the Over. |
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03-25-23 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 225 | Top | 131-110 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 New Orleans Pelicans @ LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - In recent times this has been a low scoring series. In their last four meetings the most points produced in a game was 219, the other three finished with 206 or less. The Pelicans play solid defense and have held their last two opponents to 96 and 84 points. That’s not a huge surprise considering they own the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.126-points per possession allowed. The Pelicans have also held their last five foes to an average of 43.8% shooting. The Clippers also know a little something about defense. LA is 12th in DEFF ratings and they hold opponents to 47.1% shooting which is 12th. In their last 7 games the Clippers defense has allowed 105 or less points five times. Neither team is a great shooting team ranking 11th and 16th in team FG%. The Clippers will dictate tempo here and they prefer a slower pace. New Orleans is average in pace of play. It all adds up to a big Under winner Saturday. |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State OVER 144 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 144 Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State, 6:10 PM ET - Our predictive analytics have this game finishing with 151 or more total points as we expect both teams to score in the high 70’s or above. Markquis Nowell of the Wildcats is a dynamic point guard that sees the floor extremely well and can shoot it too. He had 20-points and 19 assists in K-State’s win over Michigan State. KSU wants to play fast with the 43rd highest Adjusted Tempo rating in the nation and on average it takes them just 16.5 seconds to hoist a shot. The Wildcats rank 35th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. They also own a 52.2EFG% which is good for 82nd. Florida Atlantic is also very capable of point up points in a hurry with an offense that was 26th in OEFF at 1.146PPP. The Owls were average in Adjusted Tempo, but their average possession length was considerably faster. FAU has an EFG% of 54.3% which is 26 in the nation and they rank 45th or better in both 3PT% and 2PT%. Looking at the Owls most recent 13 games we find they scored 90 or more points four times. They scored 70+ in 10 of their last thirteen games. Kansas State has scored 73 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. KSU averaged over 76PPG and that’s with a majority of those games coming in Big12 play where 6 of the top 27 defensive efficiency teams reside. We love the spot for a shootout! Easy OVER! |
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03-24-23 | Xavier v. Texas -4 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on: Texas -4 vs. Xavier, 9:45 PM ET - Texas is a team very capable of winning it all this year, Xavier is not. The Longhorns come from the best conference in the country and have played the 7th toughest schedule this season. Despite playing their brutal schedule the Horns rank 15th in offensive efficiency at 1.164-points per possession. Defensively they rank 10th allowing just .917PPP. They are top 56 in both offensive and defensive EFG%. Texas is 16-6 SU their last 22 games and the six losses came on the road in a hostile Big 12 environment. Xavier has a pair of unimpressive wins to get here as they beat Kennesaw State and a play in team in Pittsburgh. The Musketeers have the 7th most efficient offense in college hoops and are 62nd defensively. Our metrics tell us their strength of schedule isn’t as good some experts may suggest. They have some early season losses to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. As we mentioned, Xavier has solid defensive efficiency numbers but they did allow 74.5PPG on the season which ranked them 305th. Texas had a +10.6 average scoring differential which was 11th in the nation. We predict a double-digit win here. |
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03-24-23 | Pacers +11.5 v. Celtics | Top | 95-120 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +11.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - These teams have met twice this season and it’s evident the Pacers match up well with the Celtics. Indiana won here in late December as a +9.5-point underdog and then took the C’s to overtime and lost by 4-points in late February. The current injury report says Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton should be ready to go against Boston Friday night. Indiana has 3 quality road wins on their resume in their last ten games as they won at Chicago, in Milwaukee and at Toronto. The Pacers have a 9-3 ATS record when tabbed a dog of +7.5 or more points. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but they are coming off a long 6-game West Coast Road trip and have lost 2 of their last three at home. Boston’s average home differential is impressive at +9PPG but that’s not enough to get a cover here. Indiana is the desperate team here fighting for the 10th spot and play in game in the East. Grab the points. |
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03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama UNDER 138 | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 138 San Diego State vs. Alabama, 6:30 PM ET - We get two different styles of play here as the Tide want to play fast with the 5th fastest Adjusted Tempo in college basketball, while San Diego State is 263rd in that same category. Both teams are somewhat similar offensively with the 18th most efficient offense for Bama and the 70th for the Aztecs. What each team does exceptionally well is play defense. San Diego State allows .908-points per possession which is 6th best in the nation. They own the 28th best EFG% defense and are 4th best in defending the 3-point line. As good as the Aztecs are, the Tide are better. Bama is 3rd in DEFF allowing .881PPP, rank 1st in EFG% defense, 3rd in 3PT% defense and 1st in FG% D. These two teams have trended to the Under when playing good competition or teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. In that scenario, the Aztecs have stayed Under in 6 straight, Alabama is 5-1 Under in their last six in the same situation. Bet UNDER! |
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03-23-23 | Thunder v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here. |
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03-23-23 | Gonzaga v. UCLA -120 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA Bruins -120 vs. Gonzaga, 9:45 PM ET - We like the Bruins and their defense to get it done against the Zags. UCLA ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .878-points per possession. They held opponents to 31% 3PT shooting (29th) and 46.6% on 2-pointers which ranked 38th. They owned the 20th best EFG% defense at 46.5. Gonzaga does own the #1 ranked offense in terms of efficiency at 1.235PPP, but that number is inflated from playing in the West Coast Conference. The Bruins won’t be intimidated by the Zags offense as they recently held a very good Arizona offense, averaging 82PPG, to just 59 points. UCLA also owns a very good offense that is 21st in OEFF at 1.155PPP. The difference is the Zags aren’t on the Bruins level defensively as Gonzaga ranks 75th in DEFF. Gonzaga plays a tough early season schedule every season and this year was no different. They suffered 3 losses to quality teams such as UCLA when they lost to Baylor close and were blown out by Texas and Purdue. Gonzaga has won 11 straight games but 7 of those came against teams ranked 100th or worse. UCLA is 14-1 SU their last fifteen games with a +/- of +12.8PPG. UCLA is on a 5-1-1 ATS run their last seven, Gonzaga is on an 0-7 ATS streak in NCAA tournament games. |
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03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee UNDER 129.5 | Top | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 129.5 Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee, 9 PM ET - The numbers from our math model suggest this is going to be a low scoring game with a final total points scored of 120. The Vols defense is rated the best in the country when it comes to efficiency ratings as they give up just .870-points per possession. They hold opponents to the 3rd lowest EFG% at 42.7%, rank 1st in 3PT% allowed at 26.4% and are 11th in overall FG% defense. To better put this into perspective the Vols defense held Alabama, the 3rd highest scoring team in the nation at 82.3PPG to just 59 points in mid-February. Tennessee just held a Duke team that was averaging 72PPG to 52-points. The Volunteers also prefer to play at a slower pace of play as they rank 278th in Adjusted Tempo and 240th in Average Possession Length at 18.1. Florida Atlantic can also play some defense as they allow just .954-points per possession which ranks them 34th. They have the 15th best EFG% defense at 45.9% and defend the 3-point line and inside the arc well. The Owls are average in tempo ranking 143rd. The Vols are on a 7-3 Under streak, Florida Atlanta is on a 4-1 Under run. We trust the Models numbers on this one and expect a very low scoring contest. |
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03-22-23 | Suns v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +1.5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - This is a meaningful game for both teams as the Suns are fighting for the 4 seed in the West, which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are just trying to get in. Los Angeles has been MUCH better defensively with LeBron out of the lineup as they are allowing just 110.5PPG since the All-Star break. That’s significantly lower than the 118.2PPG (25th in NBA) prior to the break. The Suns defense has slipped a little since the break and are giving up +2 more PPG than they did pre-All-Star break. The Suns will be without their starting center Deandre Ayton who can defend Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Without Ayton the Suns don’t have an answer for AD who is capable of carrying this Lakers team (five 30-point games in last ten). The Suns aren’t a great road team at 15-21 SU away with a negative -0.6PPG differential. The Lakers have an average +/- at home of plus nearly 3PPG. Both teams need a win, but the Lakers are the more desperate team here. |
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03-22-23 | UAB v. Vanderbilt | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Vanderbilt pick’em over UAB, 7 PM ET - We have to side with Jerry Stackhouse and the Commodores at home against the UAB Blazers. Vandy finished the season strong with 12 wins in 14 games and just survived a scare against Michigan. The Dores have several impressive wins on their resume with 2 over Kentucky, they beat Tennessee, Florida twice, Mississippi State and Auburn. The overall schedule strength of Vandy is 32nd in the nation and they still have impressive efficiency numbers, ranking 24 in OEFF and 148 in DEFF. UAB is no slouch and have played extremely well themselves with 14 wins in their last sixteen games but 12 of those were against teams ranked outside of the top 100 per Ken Pom. In fact, 6 of those W’s came against teams ranked 200th or worse. Vandy was 14-5 SU at home in the tough SEC, UAB was 6-5 SU away. |
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03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 236.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - When these two teams met earlier this season they produced total points of 202 and 228. Our analytics suggest another game in the mid 220’s. When it comes to defense there aren’t many teams playing better than the Clippers, who are allowing 1.118-points per possession in their last five games. One of the three other teams that rate better than the Clippers in that 5-game stretch is the Thunder. OKC is 1st in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the last five games at 1.062PPP. LA is the home team here and they will dictate tempo or pace which should be slow. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the NBA this season. The Thunder average 121.1PPG at home which is the second highest average in the league. But on the road that average dips to 114.1PPG. The Clippers are the 4th lowest scoring team in the league when playing at home at 111.4PPG, but also give up just 109.8PPG. 12 of the last sixteen meetings on this court between these two teams has stayed Under the number. |
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03-21-23 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 134.5 | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 134.5 Wisconsin @ Oregon, 9 PM ET - The Ducks are dealing with injuries with several starters missing both NIT games thus far. Reports are they will have All-Pac 12 starting center N’Faly Dante back for this game against Wisconsin and potentially Jermaine Couisnard. Those are important pieces for a Ducks team that was 53rd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .979PPP. Oregon held opponents to 66.7PPG on the season on 41.7% shooting. The Ducks just faced UCF who is very similar to Wisconsin when it come to pace of play as the Knights averaged 64.8 possessions per game which was 307th in the nation. This Badger team is even slower yet, ranking 342nd at 63.5 and it takes them on average 19.6 seconds per possession to get a shot up (348th). Wisconsin also knows a little something about defense ranking 27th in the country in DEFF allowing just .950-points per possession. The Badgers were a very poor shooting team on the season at 41.7% (317th) and scored just 65.2PPG. Bucky is coming off a game at home where they shot 54% overall which is unlikely to happen again, especially on the road. Oregon has an adjusted tempo of 66.7 which ranks them 205th so they prefer a slower pace also. The bet here is UNDER. |
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03-21-23 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
#1/2 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Blue Jackets are expected to start Daniil Tarasov and he has lost 8 of his last 9 starts and is 3-11-1 with a 3.77 GAA this season and is off a start in which he allowed 5 goals. The Capitals are expected to start Charlie Lindgren and he has allowed 4 goals in each of his last two starts. Washington is still mathematically alive but they realize their odds on a wild card spot are slim. The Blue Jackets have already been eliminated from post-season contention. Considering the situation, this game is likely to play out rather wide-open with plenty of open ice. Overall, Washington has seen plenty of that lately too as the Capitals last 4 games have totaled at least 7 goals. Also, the last 11 Caps games have averaged 8 goals. The Blue Jackets also have been trending to overs because their defense is so bad and their goaltending has been subpar. Columbus has lost 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 3.3 goals during this stretch but also allowed an average of 4.8 goals per game. As you can see from these numbers, just like Washington, the Jackets last 11 games averaging 8 goals. You can see why we fully expect to see at least 7 goals in this one! Also, we are aware of the Kuznetsov injury situation for the Capitals but even if he is not back for tonight's game he has been having a very quiet month and yet the Capitals still scoring very well. Also, Washington is getting a boost with the imminent return of John Carslon even though he may not be back until Thursday. Morale is up for the Caps these days. Over is our play here. |
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03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 226 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:10 PM ET - The pace of play should be very slow in this contest as the 76ers are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA and the Bulls are 14th. On the season these two teams are also both stout defensively with the 5th and 6th ranked defensive efficiency units allowing 1.128-points per possession. In each teams last five games they have been even better defensively allowing just 1.108PPP (Bulls) and 1.102PPP (76ers). Both teams defend the 3-point line well too ranking 4th and 12th in 3PT% defense. Chicago is coming off a game against the Heat which finished with 212 total points and 162 total field goal attempts. Philly recently played a game against the Cavaliers in which there were only 160 FGA’s but the Sixers put up 118 points on unusually high shooting percentages of 52% overall and 47% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have some favorable road Under numbers while the 76ers have one of the lowest total points average when at home. |
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03-20-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Charlotte | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play 10* on #607 UW Milwaukee +6 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 PM ET - Charlotte has a bit of an advantage having played Saturday while UWM is coming off a game Sunday versus Stetson. These two teams have contrasting styles of play as Milwaukee is 12th in the nation in tempo or pace while Charlotte is one of the slowest at 362. We are fine if Charlotte gets the tempo they want as the dog in a low possession game is always attractive. These two teams come into this post season with different results as the UWM Panthers finished the season on a 3-1 streak after losing to Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament. Charlotte on the other hand lost two straight heading into the CUSA Tourney then lost to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers had played another team from the Horizon earlier this season in Detroit Mercy, who finished 5 games below UWM in conference play, and lost by 21 and won by 2 in OT. The Panthers beat Detroit Mercy twice this season. Charlotte averages 67PPG which makes covering a number as large as 6-points difficult. The 49ers average +/- on the season is +4.1PPG, UW Milwaukee has a +/- of +4.5PPG. The Panthers stay hot and keep this one within the margin. |
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03-19-23 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Orlando Magic @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - The Lakers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Magic have been eliminated for quite some time. The young Magic have had flashes of being a viable team, but recently the grind has started to catch up with them. Orlando is 3-6 SU their last nine games but are coming off a win over the Clippers. For the season the Magic are right around league average in pace of play and defensive efficiency ratings. They rank 26th in offensive efficiency though, averaging just 1.120PPP. For the season the Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams in the league, but with LeBron out they run the offense through Anthony Davis which has led to a slower pace of play. Case in point is their pace of play in the last five games of 96.9 possessions per game which ranks 22nd slowest in the NBA. It’s no coincidence that the Lakers defense has been much better without LeBron too as they allowed over 118PPG prior to the All-Star break and are giving up just 111PPG without him on the court. In their last five games the Lakers hold the 11th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Both teams defend the 3-point line extremely well ranking 8th (Magic) and 2nd (Lakers) and neither shoots it well from Downtown. Orlando ranks 24th in the league in 3PT% at 34.6%, while the Lakers rank 27th at 33.9%. No chance these two teams get to more than 230 total points. |
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03-19-23 | Creighton +1.5 v. Baylor | Top | 85-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +1.5 over Baylor, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Blue Jays as a slight favorite so we’re getting some value here. Both of these teams played very difficult schedules this season (Baylor 5th SOS / Creighton 13th SOS) and the Jays have the better overall efficiency margin. While both teams average right around 77 PPG, Baylor has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and Creighton has a slight edge in eFG%. These 2 are close offensively. Defensively the Blue Jays are much better this season. They rank 14th nationally allowing just 0.93 PPP while Baylor ranks 99th allowing 1.01 PPP. The Bears rank 232nd in eFG% allowed and inside the arc they have been poor defensively ranking 315th. They are, and have been, the worst defense in the Big 12 for the entire season. Struggling to defend inside isn’t a great recipe vs Creighton with 7’1 Kalkbrenner in the middle. Yesterday vs NC State, he was 10 of 13 inside the arc and scored 31 points. Creighton made 64% of their shots inside the arc and should have lots of success again in that area. On the other side, Baylor pretty much relies on the 3 point shot and getting to the FT line. They get very little inside the arc with only 42% of their points which is 358th nationally. Creighton is solid at defending the 3 point line only 13% of their opponents points come from the FT line (3rd least in the country). Baylor will really need to hit a high percentage of triples to win this game in our opinion. We’ll take the better defense and the offense that can score inside and out to win this one. Creighton is the call. |
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03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette UNDER 140.5 | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
#841/842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 140.5 Points – Michigan State vs Marquette, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - We were on the Under in the 1st round game Vermont vs Marquette and we’ll stick with that in today’s Golden Eagles match up with Michigan State. After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. In Friday’s NCAA opener they limited Vermont to 61 points on 0.97 PPP. All 4 of those defensive efforts were impressive and this Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. After struggling defensively their final few games of the regular season, MSU head coach Tom Izzo made it clear to his team they needed to pick it up on that end of the court. They took that to heart and held a good USC offense that averages 73 PPG to just 62 points on Friday. Even after the game Izzo stressed how his team won because they played better defense. Both defenses force opponents into long possessions with Marquette opponents taking 18.7 seconds per possession (7th best in the nation) and MSU opponents taking 18.3 seconds per possession (38th). MSU ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency and while Marquette struggled early in the season on that end of the court, they actually rank 22nd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. Offensively Marquette likes to play fast although they’ve slowed down considerably as of late. They’ve averaged just 68 PPG in regulation in the post season (conference & NCAA) and MSU will slow this game down (Sparty 304th in adjusted tempo). Neither team is great at offensive rebounding (both ranked outside the top 220) and neither scores many points from the FT line (both outside the top 300 in % of points from the charity stripe). We project this game to land in the mid 130’s and we love the value on the Under. |
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03-19-23 | Liberty v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wisconsin -3 over Liberty, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Our concern with Wisconsin in the NIT is would they come with intensity for a program that had been in the NCAA tourney 22 of the previous 23 years. They answered that question last Tuesday rolling over a solid Bradley team by 19 points. The same Bradley team that won the Missouri Velley regular season title over Drake who went to the Dance and nearly upset Miami FL. The Badgers are definitely battle tested playing the 15th most difficult schedule in the country this season. They were just a few plays from comfortably making the NCAA tourney. 5 of their last 6 losses came by 2 points or less or in OT and that was vs a tough Big 10 schedule. Some of their tight losses this year including Kansas in OT, Purdue by 2, Northwestern by 2 & 3 points, Michigan State by 4, and Rutgers by 1. This team seem re-energized last Tuesday as if a stressful weight was lifted off their shoulders. They scored 81 points, their 2nd highest total this season, vs a Bradley defense that ranked #1 in the MVC (efficiency). Liberty had a big win over Villanova which we feel is keeping this line a bit lower than it really should be. It was a 5 point win, however Nova played the game without arguably their 2 best players, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore. On top of that, Liberty was +7 from the FT line and made 10 three pointers to just 4 for the Wildcats. Thus, the Flames outscored Villanova by 25 points from the FT line + 3 point range and only won by 5. Prior to beating the Wildcats minus their 2 top players, Liberty had played a grand total of 3 teams this season ranked in the top 100 and lost all 3 by double digits. With this line set slow low, we’re really just looking for Wisconsin to win at home and we like them to get it done on Sunday. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 127.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
#815/816 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 127.5 Points – Northwestern vs UCLA, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Two slow paced teams, UCLA 235th and NW 309th in adjusted tempo, that play very good defense. UCLA ranks #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and the Wildcats rank 19th. The Bruins allow just 60 PPG (7th nationally) while NW gives up only 62 PPG (20th). More recently, since February 1st both of these defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in efficiency. NW has allowed less than 70 points in 14 of their last 16 games while UCLA has allowed less than 70 in 12 of their last 14 games. Since losing @ USC on January 26th, the Bruins have held 11 of their last 14 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP. Offensively neither team is overly efficient away from home this season. Both barely average 1.00 PPP on the road and neither is a great shooting team. Northwestern ranks 316th in eFG% and UCLA ranks 155th. The Bruins score very little from beyond the arc (333rd in % of points from deep) and while NW takes more 3’s, they only shoot 32% from out there (275th). Lastly neither team gets to the FT line very often so we don’t look for many freebies in this game. This will be a grinder that should stay Under barring any late fouling (scramble) situations. |
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03-18-23 | Wolves v. Raptors OVER 224.5 | Top | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 224 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors, 7:10PM ET - This line opened 228 and has bet down to the current number and we love the added value with an Over bet here. Minnesota is coming off a double-overtime game last night in Chicago and have been a slight Over team when playing without rest. The Wolves O/U record when coming off a game the night before is 6-5 but those games have averaged 240.5PPG. On the season the Wolves games have averaged over 231 total points. When playing away from home the Wolves games average slightly more at 232.1PPG. Toronto is very consistent with their scoring as they average right around 224 total points from game both home and away. The Raptors offense has clicked in two straight games with 125 versus the Nuggets and 128 last time out against the Thunder. Minnesota shoots it at a 49.1% rate which is 4th best in the NBA and the Raptors defense allows opponents 49.2% which ranks 28th worst. Toronto is on a 6-1 Over streak, while Minnesota is 5-1 Over their last six road games versus teams with a +.600 or better record. Bet OVER HERE! |
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03-18-23 | Duke -3 v. Tennessee | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
#803 ASA TOP PLAY ON Duke -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 2:40 PM ET - Duke is playing fantastic basketball right now. They’ve won 10 in a row and ran through the ACC tourney rather easily winning 3 games by an average of 15 points per game vs Pitt, Miami, and UVA, all NCAA tourney teams. The Devils then destroyed a solid Oral Roberts team (won by 23) who came into the game with a 30-4 record and a team many thought had a chance to make some waves in this tournament. Since February 1st, this Duke team is rated as the 9th most efficient team in the country and prior to that they were ranked 30th (per Bart Torvik stats). This team is definitely trending in the right direction. Tennessee not so much. They’ve lost 7 of their last 13 games after starting 18-3 and they struggled to beat Louisiana in round one winning by 3 points. Defensively the Vols have remained solid all season but their offense has fallen off a cliff the 2nd half of the season. Since February 1st, Tennessee is ranked outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency and they are now playing without starting PG Zeigler who was their 2nd leading scored and averaged over 5 assists per game along with being their best perimeter defender. Pretty much the opposite of Duke, the Volunteers were ranked #1 nationally in efficiency from the start of the season through the end of January and they’ve dropped to 30th since then. Over their last 5 games Tennessee is scoring just 68 PPG while allowing 65 PPG. For the season on defense they allow 37% shooting and just 26% from deep but over their last 5 that numbers have increased to 43% and 36%. Meanwhile Duke is winning by an average of 15 PPG over their last 5 shooting 49% and allowing 35%. Two teams trending in opposite directions and we’ll take the hot, confident team. Duke is the play. |
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03-17-23 | Arizona State v. TCU -5.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
#798 ASA TOP PLAY ON TCU -5.5 over Arizona State, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rough spot for ASU in this game having just played in Dayton 48 hours ago they are now set for a game in Denver. TCU has been off since last Friday so they should be ready to go in this one. We really liked this Horned Frogs team all season as long as they were healthy. They lost their top player Mike Miles for a stretch of 5 games in early February and went 1-4 in those contests. They were also missing starting forward Peavy for 5 games just prior to Miles going down. When this team was healthy they destroyed Kansas on the road, beat Baylor on the road, topped Texas, and took 2 of 3 from Kansas State all top 3 seeds in this NCAA tourney. They gave a red hot Texas team all they could handle in the Big 12 tourney losing by just 6. This is a very deep Horned Frog team that ranks 13th nationally in bench minutes which should come in handy in the high altitude in Denver facing a Sun Devil team that could be fatigued after playing in the eastern time zone 48 hours ago. ASU is coming off an unreal offensive performance on Wednesday beating Nevada 98-73. As you can expect the Devils shot WAY above their season averages hitting 64% of their shots (they average 42%) and 52% of their 3’s (they average 31%). Despite that effort, this is not a good shooting team ranking outside the top 315 in both 2 point and 3 point FG%. They now face a rested TCU defense that ranks 21st nationally in defensive efficiency and 20th at defending the arc. TCU has played the tougher schedule (11th SOS / USC has played 37th SOS) and despite that the Frogs have better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. Lay it with TCU. |
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03-17-23 | Wizards v. Cavs -6 | Top | 94-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here. |
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03-17-23 | Vermont v. Marquette UNDER 144.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
#743/744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 144.5 Points – Vermont vs Marquette, Friday at 2:45 PM ET - After giving up 94 points to St Johns in their home finale (a 96-94 Marquette win), the Golden Eagles knew they had to focus on playing much better defense to have a chance to succeed in the Big East tourney and then the NCAA tourney. They took the 94 points allowed to heart facing St Johns again just a few days later in the Big East tournament. They held the Johnnies to just 61 points in regulation improving by their defense by 33 points in the span of just a few days. Marquette followed that up by holding UConn to 68 points and then completely shut down Xavier to 51 points in the Big East final. All 3 of those defensive efforts were impressive, especially the final 2 as both UConn and Xavier are ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency. This Golden Eagle team is locked in on that end of the court right now. They are facing a Vermont offense that ranks 98th in efficiency, however they haven’t faced many top tier defensive teams this season. Their conference, America East, doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The only top 70 defenses they’ve faced all season were St Mary’s, USC, Iona, and Yale. The Catamounts scored 53, 57, 50, and 44 points in those games respectively. Vermont is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (313th in adjusted tempo) and they know they have to slow this game down to have a chance. They were solid defensively this season ranking #1 in the conference in efficiency. Neither team is very good on the offensive glass which will mean very few 2nd chance points. Neither team fouls very much and when it comes to percentage of points at the FT line they both rank outside the top 325. Vermont makes this a slow paced game and Marquette’s defense continues to shine. Under here. |
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03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier OVER 154 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
#787/788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154 Points – Kennesaw State vs Xavier, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Two fast paced teams going at it here in game where we should see lots of offensive possessions. Both rank in the top 100 in offensive possessions per game while Xavier is 39th nationally in adjusted tempo and Kennesaw State is 121st. The Musketeers rank 12th in the country in scoring averaging 82 PPG while the Owls aren’t far behind averaging 76 PPG (89th in the nation). On the other end of the court, neither of these teams is all that great defensively. When it comes to guarding the 3 point arc, both are poor ranking outside the top 230 and they are facing offenses that are very good at hitting from deep with Xavier making 39.5% (3rd in the nation) and KSU making 37% (34th in the nation). The Owls defense ranked 212th this season in eFG% allowed despite the majority of their games coming in a conference (Atlantic Sun) that had only 3 teams ranked inside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Xavier’s defense has been shaky all season allowing 74.5 PPG (305th nationally). These 2 have been cashing Overs all season long with a combined record of 40-24-2 to the Over. Should be an exciting game to watch if you like offense. High scoring and we like the Over. |
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03-16-23 | Kings v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings! |
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03-16-23 | Auburn v. Iowa UNDER 152 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
#751/752 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 152 Points – Iowa vs Auburn, Thursday at 6:50 PM ET - We’ve discussed Iowa’s massive offensive dichotomy when playing at home compared to on the road many times this season. Their offensive efficiency numbers drop for 1.22 PPP at home to 0.99 PPP on the road or neutral site. They average a ridiculous 20 fewer points away from home (89 PPG at home / 69 PPG on the road). Lastly their shooting numbers on the road are 41% overall and only 28% from deep. The Hawkeyes are facing a very good defense here in Auburn. The Tigers 5th nationally defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot only 28.8%. They also rank 12th in eFG% defense and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cats allowed just 67 PPG and we expect Iowa to struggle offensive as they often do away from home. Iowa’s defense isn’t great by any means, however the Auburn offense isn’t either. They rank outside the top 300 in 3 point FG% making only 31% and the Tigers rank just 248th in eFG%. They’ve also slowed down their pace dramatically compared to past seasons. This year they sit 165th in adjusted tempo after finishing in the top 55 the previous 2 seasons. Iowa will want to play fast but Auburn will want to slow this one down a bit. Iowa’s road games average 141 total points and Auburn’s road games averaged 142 total points. Unless both teams shoot lights out, we don’t see this getting into the 150’s. This is an unfamiliar venue for both teams and we’ll call for the Under here. |
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03-16-23 | College of Charleston v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - C of C will be a very popular underdog play on Thursday as they step into this game with a 31-3 record. That’s an impressive run for sure, however the Cougars have played a very easy schedule this season – ranked 305th strength of schedule. They have played ONE top 100 team since late November and they lost that game at home vs Hofstra. The Cougs didn’t waltz through their conference tourney erasing a 2nd half deficits in both games to win close vs UNC Wilmington and Towson. San Diego State will be by far the best team they’ve faced this season. Meanwhile, SDSU has played the 34th most difficult schedule this season facing 20 opponents currently ranked in the top 100 per KenPom. The Aztecs were 11-6 vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents this season while C of C was 2-1. The Cougars are a deep team that rotates 10 players to wear opponents down and they shoot a bunch of 3’s (37% of their points come from beyond the arc – 28th nationally). The problem here is, they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team (210th nationally in 3 point FG%) and they won’t be able to wear down a deep and talented Aztec team (30th in bench minutes). SDSU is also a fantastic defense ranked 10th in the country in efficiency and 7th in 3 point FG% allowing opponents only 29% from deep. By comparison, the Cougs have ONE defense ranked in the top 100 in their conference, the Colonial. That was UNCW who ranks 97th and played C of C in the conference championship game and held them to 0.98 PPP and just 23% from deep in a very close Cougar win. If we look at the KenPom ratings, C of C would rank 6th in the MWC, a conference San Diego State won by 2 full games. The conference records of these 2 teams was almost identical despite playing in much tougher league. SDSU finished 18-3 in the Mountain West (6th best conference) and College of Charleston finished 19-2 in the Colonial (26th best conference) – conference tournament wins included. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Aztecs had a +20.2 PPP margin this season while the Cougars were +11.8. We like the value with San Diego State vs the popular underdog. |
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03-15-23 | Kings v. Bulls +1.5 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - We like this Kings team and hope they make some noise in the Playoffs but today we are on the home team Bulls as a small dog. We like the scheduling advantage for the Bulls who have been off since last Saturday. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games 13 straight games against teams in the Playoff hunt. They are coming off a big game against the Eastern Conference leading Bucks. The big difference between these two teams is defense. Chicago owns the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.128-points per possession. With the new addition of defensive minded Pat Beverly they are allowing 1.103PPP in their last three games. Sacramento has the 3rd worst DEFF allowing 1.209PPP on the season and 1.230PPP in their last three games. Granted, the Kings have a decided edge offensively, but given the scheduling we like the home defensive dog. Chicago’s 9th ranked FG percentage defense can limit the Kings 2nd best shooting offense. Sacramento ranks 29th in FG% defense and the Bulls are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 49%. Back the Bulls! |
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03-15-23 | Avalanche v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
#79/80 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We like the over here regardless of the starting goalies. But we'll start there by mentioning that the Maple Leafs are expected to go with Samsonov and he has allowed 8 goals in his last two starts. If Toronto goes with Murray, he has allowed 4 goals in 5 straight starts. As for the Avalanche, Georgiev expected to start and he got pulled against the Maple Leafs when they faced Toronto earlier this season as he allowed 5 goals in less than two periods of work! He also enters this start having allowed 4 goals twice in his last three starts! No matter who is in goal for the Avs this team has allowed 4 goals per game last 7 games! The good news for Colorado fans is that, despite the struggles at times in their own end, this team can pile up goals. The Avalanche are off an 8-4 win at Montreal and their last 6 road games have averaged 7.3 goals. The Maple Leafs have had one low-scoring home game of late but that was because it was against the Wild and Minnesota continues to get involved in low-scoring grinders. But, other than that one exception, if you look at the other recent home games for Toronto they have scored an average of 4 goals last 12. Also, 8 of those 12 totaled at least 7 goals and we look for at least 7 in this one too! Over is our play here. |
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03-15-23 | UCF +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 67-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 55 m | Show |
#713 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCF +3.5 over Florida, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - One thing we know for sure is UCF is jacked for this game. They haven’t faced the state big boy since the 2012/13 season and the motivated Knights are good enough to pull the upset here. Central Florida had a disappointing season finishing 8-10 in the AAC despite ranking as the 4th best team per KenPom behind only Houston, Memphis, and Cincinnati. This team is better than their overall 18-14 record would indicate. Their adjusted efficiency margin was +12.6 points per 100 possessions which would indicate their record should be better than it is. They are solid on both ends of the court ranking in the top 90 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Golden Knights also play a very slow pace (319th in adjusted tempo) which could be a problem for the Gators who like to play fast. We would anticipate UCF slowing this game down giving them the best chance to win. Florida had much higher expectations entering the season and really played worse as the year progressed. They started the season ranked 35th by KenPom and ended the year ranked outside the top 60. The closed the season losing 7 of their last 10 games with their only wins coming vs Ole Miss, UGA, and LSU, 3 of the 4 SEC teams ranked outside the top 100. They really struggled after losing leading scorer & rebounder Colin Castleton in late February winning 2 of 8 games without him in the line up and he remains out. We’re not so sure that this Florida team is all that excited to be in the NIT this season. Both defenses are very solid holding opponents to less than 0.98 PPP. Offensively, UCF is the better shooting team. The Knights have the better offensive efficiency numbers, they make 36% of their triples (83rd nationally compared to Florida who ranks 291st in that statistic) and they make 77% of their FT’s. When facing the best teams in the AAC, the Knights played well losing to NCAA #1 seed Houston by 6 & 11 points while beating Memphis the first meeting and then getting nipped by 2 and 5 points in their other 2 vs the Tigers. In the non-conference this team nearly beat Miami FL (lost by 2) and Missouri (lost by 2). We like their chances here at the upset and we’ll take the points. |
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03-14-23 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 233 | Top | 116-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* UNDER 232.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - Both teams are playing their second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights so fatigue becomes a factor. That should lead to less possessions and scoring opportunities as both will regress in pace of play here. When these two teams met in Milwaukee in late February, they combined for 182 field goal attempts (slightly more than league average) but produced just 205 total points. When it comes to pace of play the Suns are one of the slowest in the league at 98 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Milwaukee plays faster ranking 11th overall, but given the schedule we expect them to play at the Suns preferred tempo tonight. Both teams can defend as the Bucks rank 3rd overall in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.108-points per possession. The Suns rank 8th at 1.129PPP. When the Bucks have faced an above .500 team this season those games have averaged 224.8 total points per game. When the Suns have faced a team of the same caliber (above .500) those games have averaged 222.5PPG. We expect both defenses to shine tonight. Bet UNDER! |
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03-14-23 | Bradley v. Wisconsin UNDER 127.5 | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
#675/676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 127.5 Points – Bradley vs Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We have 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country facing off in Madison on Tuesday night. The Braves rank 289th in adjusted tempo and Wisconsin ranks 348th. Defensively both of these teams make opposing offenses work hard for a decent shot. Opponents vs the UW defense have an average possession time of 18.3 seconds (325th) and the Bradley defense allows opponents an average possession length of 18.7 seconds (357th). Offensively these teams rank 345th (Wisconsin) and 319th (Bradley) in possessions per game out of 363 teams. The fact is, there just won’t be many opportunities for the offenses in this game. And when there are, both defenses are solid. Wisconsin ranks 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and Bradley ranks 51st (1st in the Missouri Valley Conference). Neither teams is adept on the offensive glass while both are very good defensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points will be minimal. We should also see very few FT attempts in this game as both Wisconsin and Bradley rank outside the top 340 in percentage of points from the charity stripe and when they get there both only shoot in the mid 60% range. We don’t see either of these teams topping 65 points in this one and we’ll grab the Under. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi -3.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
#669 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M CC -3.5 over SE Missouri State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - We see this as a potential mismatch in Tuesday’s NCAA tourney play in game. Texas A&M CC was here last year and lost to Texas Southern so they are not simply happy to be here. They expected to be back and are set on winning this game. The Islanders are very experienced returning all 5 starters from last year’s game that lost in the play in round. That group has an overall record of 46-22 the last 2 years. They did lose one of their key players, Terrion Murdix, in their conference championship game last week and he is out for the season. He’s a very well liked teammate and we expect the others to rally around this injury and play with a little extra on Tuesday. They were the best team in the Southland Conference all season long finishing in first place in the regular season, winning the conference tourney to get here and ending the year #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play. The Southland Championship game was last Wednesday so the Islanders have had a week off to get ready for this one. SE Missouri State, on the other hand, just played 4 consecutive games (Wed – Sat) in the OVC tourney in Indiana and now with only 2 days off they are on the road and at it again. Unlike A&M, this team was not the best in their conference this season. They finished tied for 3rd place with 2 other teams and the Redhawks were barely positive in their PPP margin in league play this season. This is also a program that is not used to being in this situation as their last winning record was way back in 2014. They haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2000 and we’re guessing they might be just happy to be here as it was not expected this season. TAMU-CC is a very good offensive team averaging 81 PPG and they rank 38th nationally in 3 point %. They are facing a defense that simply isn’t very good allowing 77 PPG (337th nationally). We look for a win & cover for the Islanders on Tuesday. |
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03-13-23 | Suns +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
#555 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Suns have owned this series winning all 3 meetings this season and none have been particularly close with margins of victory being +9, +11, and +12. On top of that, the Suns were only at full strength for 1 of those games with Booker, Ayton, and Paul missing time and Steph Curry scored 50 points in one of those games and Phoenix still got the win. Phoenix is still waiting for the return of Kevin Durant from the unfortunate injury when he was warming up for his home debut, but they are healthy otherwise and have been solid with an 8-3 record since Devin Booker returned to the lineup from an injury. Their overall record of 37-30 doesn’t paint an accurate picture as Phoenix was just 11-16 in the 27 games Booker missed. Since the All Star break, the Suns are 5-2 but lead the NBA in efficiency differential at +9.9 while the Warriors are 10th at +2.8. We’re also getting a well rested Suns team as they’ve played just 7 games since the All Star break while Golden State has played 10 games. We like the situation here with Golden State off huge OT win vs Milwaukee (minus Giannis) on Saturday while were getting Phoenix off a loss on Saturday vs Sacramento. The Suns have performed very well coming off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record dating back to early January. The Warriors have been very tough at home this season but we still like the points here and expect the Suns to have a solid shot at the win, if not we anticipate a close game. |
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03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -4.5 over Texas A&M, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Quick revenge here for Bama. This is who they wanted in the finals and this is who they got. In the season finale A&M played host to Bama and we were on the Aggies in that game. It was a perfect storm to grab the home team as the Tide had just beaten arch rival Auburn to clinch the SEC title and now were on the road in a somewhat meaningless game. We were actually impressed with Bama’s resolve in that game (considering the circumstances) as they fell behind by 15 and battled back to take the lead with under 5 minutes remaining in the game before ultimately losing 67-61. The difference in that game? Free Throws! A&M made 27 of their 28 FT’s in that game while the Crimson Tide made only 10 freebies. Despite the huge discrepancy from the line and the game being on the road, Alabama was able to keep it close down the stretch. The controlled the boards in that game (+10) and gathered 35% of their misses to give them a number of 2nd chance opportunities. Alabama is easily the best team in the SEC and probably the best team in the country when they actually show up and play like they are capable. They should do that today with the A&M loss still fresh in their minds (9 days ago). They rank #1 in the SEC in offensive & defensive efficiency as well as offensive & defensive eFG%. Bama has 5 losses on the season with 4 of those coming vs teams inside KenPom’s top 20. The Aggies have 8 losses, all vs teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 20 with 2 coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. Alabama is simply the better team and very motivated here. Lay it. |
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03-11-23 | Bucks v. Warriors OVER 240 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on OVER 240 Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors, Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - We expect a very high scoring game between these two teams on Saturday. The Warriors season long statistics are somewhat misleading as they’ve dealt with major injuries to their superstars. Even with that being the case they are still 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 118.1PPG. Golden State is 4th in effective FG% shooting at 56.8% and 4th in overall 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee is 15th on the season in offensive efficiency at 1.148-points per possession but in their last five games they rank 3rd at 1.251PPP. The Bucks are averaging 115.8PPG on the season and have put up 127PPG in their last three games. The Bucks have maintained a top defensive efficiency rating this season but the Warriors have not, ranking 17th. Golden State simply wants to outscore their opponents which is why they rank 1st in pace of play at 102 possessions per game. The Bucks will play fast too as they rank 12th pace at 100.1. When these two teams met earlier this season they combined for 239 total points. Last year when these two teams met in Cali they produced 231 total points. We are betting this game will be a shootout. |
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03-11-23 | Kent State v. Toledo OVER 148.5 | Top | 93-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 149 Points – Kent State vs Toledo, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - In the MAC Title game we have 2 fast paced, extremely efficient offenses which should lead to a high scoring game. Toledo ranks 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are #1 in the MAC. The Rockets have scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 17 games! They are in the top 5 nationally in PPG, FG%, and 3 point FG%. They also hit 77% of their FT’s as a team. On the other end of the court, Toledo struggles. The rank outside the top 250 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point % allowed. Kent ranks 4th in the MAC in offensive efficiency and they average 76 PPG on the season. The Golden Flashes have been on quite a roll offensively as well putting up at least 70 points in 10 straight games. Kent’s defense is much better than Toledo’s ranking 1st in the MAC in efficiency, however, they’ve held some of the poor offensive teams in the conference in check but the top teams have put up points vs the Flashes. The 4 most efficient offenses in the league minus Kent’s offense were Toledo, Akron, Ball St, and Ohio, and they averaged 72 PPG vs this Kent defense. In yesterday’s games, Toledo topped Ohio 82-75 despite shooting only 44% combined from the field. Kent topped Akron 79-73 and those 2 teams combined to make only 41% of their shots. We expect both teams to shoot better than those numbers today and this game gets at least into the 150’s. |
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03-11-23 | Ohio State v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -6.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on OSU 2 days ago vs Iowa and picked up a nice win. Yesterday we switched gears and took Michigan State over Ohio State and came up short. MSU, the top 3 point shooting team in the Big 10, made 3 of 16 from deep for just 19%. The Buckeyes made 10 three pointers and hit 53% from beyond the arc (+21 points from 3) and that was the difference. The Buckeyes have been a bit fortunate with their opponents missing from the arc in this tourney. Wisconsin, Iowa, and MSU combined to make only 11 of their 55 three point attempts (20%). OSU played their game yesterday without their leading scorer Sensabaugh (16.5 PPG) who tweaked his knee vs Iowa the day before. The OSU medical staff is doing some tests on Friday night to decide if he’s OK to go on Saturday. The Bucks rose to the occasion and played very well without their top player which often happens in the first game dealing with the injury. If Sensabaugh can’t play Saturday it will make it really tough on this team. Even if he can go and isn’t 100%, this is a very difficult spot for the streaking Buckeyes. They are playing their 4th game in 4 days while Purdue is playing just their 2nd. Down another player yesterday, the Buckeyes played 4 of their 5 starters 35+ minutes. Now they face a Purdue team that has been the best in the Big 10 all season long. The Boilers are a huge team facing a fatigued OSU squad that isn’t very deep up front after losing top big man Zed Key in mid February. Purdue should definitely control the boards in this game (#1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Big 10) and that should lead to a number of extra possessions. In their match up in late February, a 27 points Purdue win, the Boilers crushed OSU on the boards (+23) and they gathered more than 45% of their misses in both games. PU also fouls less than any team in the league and gets to the FT line more than any team in the conference. Unless the Buckeyes shoot lights out again, we just don’t see them hanging in this one. Lay it with the Boilermakers as they pull away in the 2nd half. |