ASA play on Oklahoma City Thunder -7 vs. Golden State Warriors - 8PM ET - Golden State just played in Denver last week and was +9.5 points and now they are catching a smaller number at OKC? The Thunder are rated as the best team in the NBA with an eDIFF (Efficiency Differential) of +13.2, Denver is 2nd at +13.1. Golden State ranks 13th in eDIFF and they’ve played a weaker schedule than the Thunder. The Thunder are 4-0 SU at home with a +14.4ppg average margin of victory. Since the start of last season, including the playoffs, the Thunder are 50-8 SU at home with a plus +16.2ppg average differential. THAT INCLUDES THE PLAYOFFS against the other best teams in the NBA. Golden State has a very respectable 28-26 SU road record going back to the start of last year, but are 1-5 SU away from home this season with the only win coming at LA against the Lakers. The Warriors five road losses have come by 5-points or more, three of those L’s came by double digits. We will take the Champs on their home court and expect a 10+ point win in this one.

#632 ASA PLAY ON North Dakota State -1.5 over Cal State Northridge (CSUN), Tuesday at 8 PM ET - CSUN is in a bad situational spot here playing their 3rd road game in 6 days. They played @ Northern Iowa last Thursday (lost by 29 points), then played @ North Dakota on Sunday (won by 8) and now @ North Dakota State tonight. CSUN is 2-1 on the season and probably ready to get back home to California after being gone for a full week (left last Wednesday). The Matadors are coming off a 93-85 win @ North Dakota Sunday which wasn’t overly impressive. UND is ranked as the worst team in the Summit League, basically tied with UMKC (per KenPom) and the 324th best team in the country. The Fighting Hawks were just 12-21 last season and only won 5 Summit League games. Now CSUN, just 48 hours later, faces one of the top teams in the Summit (NDSU rated 3rd best team in the league) and the Bison will be hungry for a win after starting the season 0-2 losing @ Oregon State by 2 and @ UC Davis by 12. This will be their first home game of the season and unlike CSUN, they’ve had a full week off to get ready for this one. After 2 games, the Bison are shooting just 15% from beyond the arc and we’d expect them to shoot much better at home tonight. This team led the NATION in 3 point shooting last year hitting 40% of their triples so positive regression is likely tonight. NDSU should get plenty of extra possessions on Tuesday as CSUN has been a turnover machine this year coughing it up on over 24% of their possessions while the Bison create turnovers on 22% of their defensive possessions. NDSU, on the other hand, has done a nice job of taking care of the ball with just a 14% turnover rate. They should also control the boards as they rank in the top 70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding while CSUN is outside the top 300 in both of those this season. We like the hungry Bison to get this win at home.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Washington State -1.5 over St Thomas, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - St Thomas is in a really tough situational spot here. They played on the West Coast @ St Mary’s last Monday (lost by 26), then played at home vs a bad Army team (ranked 340th per KenPom) and won by just 7, and now 48 hours later they are back on the West Coast to take on Washington State. The Cougars are in must win mode here after dropping their first 2 games vs Idaho and Davidson. In their home opener vs Idaho, Wazzu was a -7.5 point favorite and now just 1 week later they are laying under 2 (current line -1.5) vs a St Thomas team that is similarly rated to Idaho. In that 83-81 loss, the Cougs shot just 6 of 28 from deep (21%) while Idaho made nearly 40% of their triples and the game still went to the wire. In 2 games, Wazzu is just 12 of 49 from deep and we would expect some positive regression here, especially at home. Just prior to the regular season, the Cougars faced a solid New Mexico team (95th per KenPom) in a scrimmage and knocked off the Lobos which tells us they just might be better than they’ve played in the first 2 games and they are most likely undervalued here laying a short number here. The Tommies were walloped on the West Coast in their opener vs St Mary’s and then struggled to put away Army at home. They shot 50% in that game and made 7 more FT’s and still only won by 7. The spot heavily favors Washington State and we’ll take the Cougs on Monday night.

#264 ASA PLAY ON Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Nice spot for the Bucs coming off a bye giving them time to rest and get healthy. They still have a few players out (WR Godwin & RB Irving) but their offensive line looks healthy for the most part and their defense will only be missing 1 starter. Tampa has only played 3 home games to date and they’ve won 2 of those with their only loss coming vs the Eagles in a game the Bucs outgained Philly 376 to 200 total yards. While the Bucs were able to rest up and prepare for this game, the Patriots will be playing their 10th straight week and while they have a 7-2 record, they’ve faced, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. 4 of their 7 wins have come against Miami, Cleveland, New Orleans, and Tennessee who all rank 26th or lower in NFL DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking as the 3 worst teams in the NFL. They are coming off a home game where they held on to beat a 3-5 Atlanta team 24-23 in a game where the Falcons outgained them on a YPP basis. Not only will this be New England’s 10th straight week of playing games, it will also be their 4th road game in the last 6 weeks. The Pats will be without 2 of their best offensive weapons in this game with starting RB Stevenson and WR Boutte (5 TD receptions leads the team) both out. This one could come down to which high level QB, Maye or Mayfield, has the better day. Tampa has the better pass rush (both sacks per game & sack percentage) and they have better numbers in opponent completion percentage, opponent QBR, and opponent yards per pass attempt. The Pats defense has struggled on the road allowing 6.3 YPP despite facing the Saints, Titans, and the Dolphins in 3 of their 4 road games. Tampa’s D has allowed just 4.7 YPP at home this season. We like the situation here and expect TB to win by more than a FG.

#260 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans +1.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday at 1 PM ET - No way the Jags should be favored in this game in our opinion. We realize that Houston will be going with Davis Mills at QB here, but we’re not talking about a inexperienced rookie back up or anything like that. Mills has over 6,000 career passing yards and has thrown for 35 TD’s. He’ll be fine here. He wasn’t great last weekend but he had to come in cold off the bench and face one of the best defenses in the NFL (Denver). Now he gets a week in practice with reps and a game plan set for him and facing a much weaker defense vs Jacksonville (22nd total D and 20th in YPP allowed). There are 3 average type units on the field in this game and one elite unit, the Houston defense. They’ll be by far the best unit on the field and facing a Jags offense that just hasn’t been very good as of late. They did score 30 points last week (7 in OT) beating the Raiders but only averaged 4.8 YPP. In fact, in their last 3 games they’ve averaged 4.8, 4.0, and 4.8 YPP and scored 12 points or less in 2 of those games. Not good. In their first meeting this year, the Jags came away with a 17-10 win at home despite getting outgained on a YPP basis. Houston had 3 turnovers (all inside the Jacksonville 35 yard line) and missed a FG in that tight loss. The Jaguars are a “false” 5-3 in our opinion as they have a negative YPP differential and they’ve been outscored on the season. They are currently 1 of just 3 teams in the NFL that have a winning record and a negative point differential (Bears and Panthers are the other 2). They’ve actually been outgained in 4 of their 5 wins this season (YPP differential) but heavily benefited from turnovers in their wins (+7 turnover margin in their 5 wins). This one is do or die for Houston who has a 3-5 record and has games vs Chiefs, Bills, and Colts in the next month. Take the points with the Texans.

#660 ASA PLAY ON Bradley -9.5 over Central Michigan, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Bradley is off a tight 69-63 loss vs a good St Bonaventure that is projected to be one of the top teams in the Atlantic 10 this year and finished 22-12 last season. That game was on a neutral court in South Carolina and now the Braves are back at home where they were 13-3 last season and 41-7 since the start of the 2022 season. The Braves finished 2nd in the Missouri Valley last season with a 28-9 overall record and they are projected as one of the top 3 teams in that league this year. CMU, on the other hand, is projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this year and the Chippewas have had only 1 winning season since 2018. However, CMU did win their season opener giving us some value on Bradley here. The Chippewas beat App State at home on Monday but they were fortunate as the Shot Quality stats had them losing that game by 6. CMU is projected as a bottom 4 team in the MAC and now we’re getting some value at home with one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley at home off a loss.

#173 ASA PLAY ON Oregon -6.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - A long time ago, as a general rule, we were told to never lay points on the road in the Big Ten. It still holds true in the big picture but there are obvious exceptions. Last season road favorites hit around 40% of the time but favorites under a TD performed better and those games were decided by an average margin of victory of +7.6ppg. Oregon has been especially good in the role as a road favorite with a 34-16 ATS since 2011, 15-0 S/U & 11-4 ATS under Lanning. In their last 15 as a road chalk, the Ducks have an average margin of victory of +25.1ppg. Iowa has a strong history as a home dog under Ferentz but the Hawkeyes have been home dogs just two times since the start of the 2022 season going 1-1 ATS with an average loss margin of minus -9.0ppg. The Hawks were +9.5 points at home earlier this season against Indiana, the Ducks were laying -7 versus the Hoosiers. IU wasn’t in a great scheduling situation at Iowa, coming off a huge win over Illinois. Oregon grades slightly below Indiana in our rankings and come into this game in a much better situation. The Ducks played miserable two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin, then had last week off to figure things out. Iowa has great defensive numbers but they are eerily similar to Oregon’s defense. The big difference comes offensively where the Ducks rate as one of the best in college football with 7.4YPP (4th), 484 total yards per game (14th) and 41ppg (5th). In comparison, Iowa ranks 122nd in total yards per game (317), 104th in YPP (5.1) and score 31ppg. We are on the Ducks in this one.

#179 ASA PLAY ON Kansas +5.5 over Arizona, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We aren’t fans of playing on Kansas in the role of a favorite but we do like them as dogs if the price is right. Arizona is overrated according to our rankings and a bigger favorite than they should be in this situation. One quick comparison is both teams' games against Oklahoma State where Kansas was favored by -24.5 points at home versus the Cowboys, UA was favored by 20.5 in the same situation. Kansas is averaging 6.1YPP on the season (46th) with a rushing offense averaging 4.5 yards per carry and 159 rushing yards per game. Arizona has similar offensive statistics at 6.1YPP, throw it better than KU but don’t run it as well at 150 rushing yards per game on the season. The Wildcats have better overall defensive numbers across the board than Kansas but the Jayhawks have faced a pair of top 30 offenses this season and overall tougher schedule. Arizona just hung 52 points on Colorado but were also +3 in TO’s and benefited from great field position and a few big plays. In their two games prior to last week, the Wildcats rush defense was gouged by BYU for 258 yards and Houston ran for 232. We like the Jayhawks rushing advantage and will bet a potential rush-doubling underdog in this one which produces an extremely high cover rate historically.

#166 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -10 over BYU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Biggest game so far this season in the Big 12. 8-0 BYU travels to 8-1 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders were dominant last week on the road vs a surging Kansas State team that was peaking. Tech won by 23 points and outgained KSU by over 100 yards. Their only loss this season came at Arizona State when the Sun Devils scored with just over 30 seconds left to win 26-22. Tech played that game without their starting QB. Every other game they’ve played they’ve won by at least 23 points. While BYU is undefeated, they haven’t looked great on the road. They nearly lost @ Colorado (won by 3) who is one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country. They won in OT @ Arizona after scoring 10 points in the final few minutes of regulation to push that game to an extra stanza. The Cougars most recent road game they got down by 2 TD’s vs a free falling Iowa State team and came back to win with the help of 4 ISU turnovers (0 for BYU) and they were outgained 495 to 410 in that win. BYU is 5-0 in Big 12 play yet their point differential is just +40. Compare that to Texas Tech who is 5-1 in league play and even with a loss, their point differential is nearly 100 points better than BYU (+134). These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules, yet Tech’s stats are much better. The Raiders have a +221 YPG differential (BYU is +115) and their YPP differential is +2.6 (BYU is +1.6). Tech is top 10 nationally in both total offense and total defense while BYU ranks outside the top 25 in both. We like Texas Tech to win this by at least 2 TD’s.

#712 ASA PLAY ON Kent State -5.5 over Cornell, Friday at 7 PM ET - Kent is off an OT loss here at home on Monday vs Troy. This now becomes an important game early in the season as they don’t want to lose back to back home games to start the season. The Golden Flashes are tough to beat at home where they were 34-10 SU the prior 3 years. In their loss they simply shot very poorly making only 38% of their shots while Troy was throwing everything in the ocean hitting 52% from the field. Even with that discrepancy, the game still went to OT. Look for the Kent defense to play much better tonight as they were very solid last year (83rd in defensive efficiency) under long time head coach Senderoff who has nine 20 win seasons as the head man here. It wasn’t a bad loss by any means as Troy was an NCAA tourney team last season, but a game if Kent shoots just OK they win. The Flashes had quality shots they just didn’t make them. In fact, the post game shot quality score for this game should have been 100-84 in favor of Kent. One positive is they had a very good rebounding game with 44 boards (+11 margin) and that should continue here vs a Cornell team that was a poor rebounding team last year. Kent returns 3 starters and picked up some big transfers from UNLV, Cincinnati, and Niagara and we expect them to be one of the top teams in the MAC again this year after finishing 24-12 last season. Cornell lost 3 key starters from last year’s team that combined to average over 40 PPG. This is their first game of the year and they are walking into a tough situation. We’ll lay this small number with Kent State.

#112 ASA PLAY ON South Florida -13.5 over UTSA, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Good spot here for a very good USF team coming off a tight loss @ Memphis 34-31. The Bulls led that game by 14 in the 4th quarter and the Tigers scored the final 17 points for the wins. USF put up 564 yards in that loss to 450 for Memphis. The Bulls also rolled up huge numbers on the ground, as they usually do, rushing for almost 300 yards in 7.8 YPC. They were shut out on downs twice inside Memphis territory (including inside the 5 yard line) and missed a FG otherwise they walk out of that game with a win. Now they’ve had 11 days to stew about that loss and get back home where they are 4-0 with an average score of 50-15 and an average YPP margin of +3.2! The Bulls only other loss this season was @ Miami FL They’ve had some very impressive wins including topping Florida on the road and beating a very good Boise State team 34-7. UTSA is coming off a home win as a dog beating Tulane a week ago on October 30th. Tulane gave the Roadrunners a boost with 4 turnovers (0 for UTSA) but they still put up 434 yards in the loss. UTSA has been a completely different away from home this year. They are 1-3 on the road with their only win coming @ Colorado State by a final of 17-16. CSU is now 2-6 on the season, they’ve fired their coach, and sit outside the top 110 in our power rankings. Not an impressive 1 point win for UTSA. The Roadrunners average 475 YPG and 48 PPG at home and just 338 YPG and 19 PPG on the road. As posted above, USF averages a ridiculous 50 PPG at home (on 508 YPG) so UTSA is going to have to put up big numbers to keep up here. These 2 have one common opponent so far this season. They both played at North Texas with UTSA losing 55-17 and getting outgained 584 to 329 total yards while USF beat UNT on the road 63-36 and outgained the Mean Green 580 to 443. We have the much better team, at home, in a very solid situation. We’ll lay it.

#101 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH +3 over Ohio, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Miami sits in first place in the MAC with a 4-0 mark and Ohio is 3-1 on conference play. These 2 met twice last year with Miami winning in the regular season by 10 points but getting rolled 38-3 in the MAC Championship game with the Bobcats winning as a 1 point dog. It gives the Redhawks huge motivation for this game as the 35 point margin was their worst MAC loss in their history! This is a program that is not used to losing period with a 51-22 SU record in MAC play since the start of the 2016 season. As an underdog, the Redhawks have been a big time money maker with a 15-6 ATS record (conference games) in that role since 2018. Ohio is very solid, but if we compare the numbers it definitely favors Miami OH. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedules on the season and Miami has a YPP differential of +1.0 and Ohio is dead even at +0.0. Defensively, Miami is much better allowing a full 1.0 YPP less than the Bobcats (4.9 YPP allowed by Miami and 5.9 by Ohio). The Ohio offense relies heavily on the run (20th nationally in rush attempts per game) and the Redhawk D is stout up front allowing just 123 YPG rushing on only 3.7 YPC. The Bobcats defense allows 154 YPG rushing and almost 5.0 YPC so advantage in the trenches to Miami. Our power ratings have Miami as a 2 point favorite on a neutral field so this line should be closer to pick-em in our mind. We’ll take Miami plus the points.

Champions League #224205 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arsenal Goal Line -1.5 Goals (-120) over Slavia Prague, Tuesday at 12:45 ET - Each club is missing some players entering this one but the impact is far more taxing on a Slavia Prague side that does not have the depth or talent level that this Arsenal club has!  The last time these clubs met here, in Europa League again a few years ago, the disparity between these clubs was very evident as Arsenal prevailed 4-0.  A similar result would not surprise us here.  Arsenal is on an incredible 7-game run in which they have not allowed a goal.  Overall Arsenal has won 9 games in a row and they have scored an average of 2 goals in those 9 victories.  Though the Slavia Prague defense has also been strong of late, they have not faced near the same level of competition.  Additionally, Slavia Prague is having major struggles at the offensive end of the pitch when facing tougher competition and that is certainly not good news for a team when facing the stifling defensive systems of Arsenal.  In fact, Slavia Prague has scored decently in 2 straight matches but against outclassed foes and one was in Cup (non-league) action.  Prior to this they had scored a total of just 1 goal across 5 matches as they were shutout 4 times in 5 games!  Arsenal is 3-0 in Champions League action and won the games by a combined score of 8 to 0.  Slavia Prague is winless in 3 Champions League matches and was outscored 5 to 2.  A very in-form Arsenal side is simply too much for the hosts in this one!  We look for another multi-goal victory for the road side (with a huge talent advantage) as they roll big Tuesday on enemy soil. We will lay 1.5 goals with the road team in this one.  

#934 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tight loss for us here with this same selection in Game 6 but the Blue Jays did outhit the Dodgers 8-4 in a tough 3-1 loss. One key event that happened late when the Blue Jays were setting up a possible game-winning rally was that the Dodgers had to go with Tyler Glasnow to get the final 3 outs of the game. He was the Game 3 starter and was expected to start Game 7. Now, as a result of last night's action, Glasnow will not be starting here and it is expected to be Ohtani starting on short rest. Ohtani just pitched Tuesday so Saturday is sooner than normal for a starting pitcher. Also he did struggle some in that Game 4 outing and the Jays got the win. We expect them to do the same here and look for Max Scherzer to have a solid outing in his first home start of the post-season. He was only 2-4 on the road in the regular season but went 3-1 in his home starts and had a number of solid outings here in Toronto. Yesterday's loss was a tough one for us as it looked like it was going to end 3-2 at worst and we would have cashed our run line with a 1-run loss of course. We will get it back today in the final game of the season. Prior to yesterday's 3-1 LA win, the Dodgers last 12 games haf featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin and 8 of the last 10 Blue Jays games had either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin! This one is all about the value! We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line here in Game 7!

#354 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota -3.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for the Gophers at home. They are coming off an embarrassing effort @ Iowa last Saturday losing 41-3 while putting up only 133 total yards. They had 3 turnovers and Iowa scored on a pick 6 and a punt return. The Minnesota defense, despite giving up 41 points (really 27 if you subtract the defensive and special teams TDs), the Hawkeyes had only 274 yards on 4.8 YPP. Now they come home to face MSU where they’ve been dramatically better with a 5-0 record (0-3 on the road). At home the Gophers are averaging 26 PPG compared to 7 PPG on the road. Total yardage per game at home is 351 (5.4 YPP) and just 210 (3.5 YPP) on the road. Defensively Minnesota is allowing just 16 PPG at home while giving up nearly 37 PPG on the road. They allow just 4.5 YPP at home and 6.0 YPP on the road. You get the point. They’ll be more than ready here at home as a win clinches bowl eligibility. MSU had their biggest game of the season last week at home vs rival Michigan. That was Sparty’s “all in” game and they lost by 11. It wasn’t that close as MSU scored a TD with under 10 seconds remaining to make the score look closer than it was. Offensively they only averaged 4.2 YPP and 75 of their 300 total yards came on the last “meaningless” drive. On the road they are getting outgained by over 100 YPG and by a full 2.0 YPP. Facing a top 20 Minnesota defense that allows 249 YPG and 4.3 YPP at home will be tough. The Spartans have lost all 3 of their road games by double digits and they are in a free fall overall losing 5 straight (all by double digits as well) by an average margin of -14 PPG. The rumblings out of East Lansing are that head coach Smith might be on his way out and that distraction along with losing in their biggest game of the season last week gives us MSU will be flat as a pancake vibes. We’ll take the motivated home team at this low spread.

#932 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jays were expected to get steamrolled in this series by most prognosticators.  However, not only are they not getting steamrolled, they just might win this thing!  Already, by virtue of winning Wednesday's critical Game 5 (and convincingly by the way), they have guaranteed they have up to two chances to win this thing in Toronto whether that is tonight or tomorrow night.  Actually we would not be surprised to see this scrappy Blue Jays team wrap up the series victory tonight but we are going to have the added insurance of the run line here.  Yamamoto is off B2B strong starts as he pitched complete games in which he allowed just 1 earned run in each including a great start versus Blue Jays in this series.  However, the way the Jays are playing with such confidence right now with B2B wins by a combined score of 12 to 3, we would not be surprised to see them get to Yamamoto in the rematch.  Gausman has allowed just 7 earned runs in his 4 post-season starts and LA has all the pressure in the world on them now.  As we mentioned above, most people had the Dodgers for a sweep or LA in 5 or maximum 6.  Now instead, Los Angeles is facing elimination in Game 6.  All the pressure is on LA and that makes this a great spot to back the Jays again!  The Dodgers last 12 games have featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin!  8 of the last 10 Blue Jays games have either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin!  This one is all about the value!  We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#317 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Both have similar records with UNC at 2-5 SU and Cuse at 3-5 SU but these are definitely teams heading in opposite directions. The Orange started the season winning 3 of their first 4 games, but lost starting QB Angeli and have since lost 4 straight. Not only have they lost 4 in a row, they’ve been blown out in each losing all by at least 13 points. They were averaging 38 PPG with Angeli under center but his replacement, Rickie Collins, has led this team to just 13 PPG. Collins had almost no experience with 7 pass attempts in his career prior to this season. Since taking over the starting job Collins has completed only 54% of his passes and has more interceptions than TD passes. He’ll be facing an UNC defense that is playing very well right now under defensive guru Bill Belichick. The Heels have allowed 21 (vs Cal) and 17 (vs Virginia) points in their last 2 games hold the explosive Cavs to 20 points below their average scoring output. The Heels held both of those offenses to less than 300 total yards including holding UVA to just 259 yards (they average 437 YPG). UNC lost both games but really should be on a 2 game winning streak. They lost those 2 games by a combined 4 points but outgained both teams but lost the turnover battle by a combined 6 to 1 in those losses. The fact that they played both games to the wire (both teams are better than Syracuse) with a -5 turnover margin was impressive. Carolina has the much better defense allowing 1.1 YPP less than Syracuse and while the Orange have the better overall offensive numbers, we think UNC is better on that side of the ball right now as well since the QB change for the Orange. Cuse has not been favored since Collins took over at QB and UNC nearly pulled the upset in each of their last 2 games as a dog of more than a TD in both. We’ll take North Carolina and the points here.

ASA NBA play on Chicago Bulls -4.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8pm ET - The Bulls are 3-0 with all three wins coming against playoff qualifying teams from a year ago. They have gotten great all around contributions with 6 players scoring in double-digits in all three games. The Bulls have the 10th best FG% in the NBA at 48.1% and are shooting 37% from beyond the arc (11th). They also have the 7th best FG% defense and best 3PT% D in the NBA. The Kings have gotten off to a 1-3 SU start and are in a tough scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four days. They also are coming off an emotional game in OKC last night. Last season the Kings were 5-11 SU when playing without rest with an average point differential of minus -6.4ppg. Chicago is on a 13-7 SU run when playing with a rest advantage dating back to last season. To be honest, the Kings have the better roster, but the Bulls are playing hard for Billy Donovan right now and benefit from scheduling. Lay it with the home team.

#929 ASA PLAY ON Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The Blue Jays were expected to get steamrolled by most prognosticators.  However, not only are they not getting steamrolled, they just might win this thing!  Already, by virtue of winning last night's critical Game 4 (and convincingly by the way), they have guaranteed there will be more baseball north of the border on Friday (at least) no matter what happens tonight.  Actually we would not be surprised to see this scrappy Blue Jays team take a 3-2 series lead home to Toronto but we are going to have the added insurance of the run line here.  Yesavage gets the start for Toronto and he is facing Snell of the Dodgers just like he did in Game 1 of this series.  That one was a big Jays win and while this one will not be so easy on the road, we just don't see Toronto being blown out and there is a lot of value.  The Jays bullpen has been better than the Dodgers and Yesavage did pitch better than Snell in the first game.  Also, the Dodgers last 11 playoff games have featured only 4 wins by more than a 1-run margin!  7 of the last 9 Blue Jays games have either been outright wins or a loss by just a 1-run margin!  This one is all about the value!  We are going with the +1.5 runs with the run line in this one! 

#307 ASA PLAY ON Florida International +3.5 over Missouri State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - We like the big advantage FIU will have in the running game here. They rank in the top 35 nationally in YPG on the ground and YPC. They’ve really turned it up on the ground as of late with 222 yards rushing vs Kennesaw State and 249 yards rushing vs Western Kentucky (their 2 most recent games). Those are 2 of the best teams in CUSA with Kennesaw currently in 1st place winning 5 straight games and WKY in 3rd place. The Panthers beat WKY 25-6 on the road and despite their loss vs Kennesaw, they outgained the Owls and put up over 500 yards. FIU has put up over 200 yards on the ground in 4 of their 7 games this season. They’ll be facing a Missouri State D that ranks 119th allowing 4.9 YPC. That’s despite facing 4 straight opponents that rank outside the top 100 in rushing. The only 2 teams they faced that rank inside the top 100 put up 233 and 191 yards on the ground vs this Bear defense. While the Panthers were giving 2 of the top teams in the conference problems in their last 2 games, Missouri State faced 2 of the worst teams in the country, MTSU and New Mexico State, and won those games by 2 points and in OT respectively. The Bears are in their first year in the FBS and while they have 3 wins vs FBS teams, all 3 have been by 2 points or less or in OT. Unlike FIU, Mizzou State is a poor running team ranking outside the top 100 in YPG rushing and YPC and they’ve been outrushed by -1.6 YPC. We always like taking a strong look at good rushing underdogs that should control the line of scrimmage. We’ve got that here with FIU.

ASA NBA play on Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 at Boston Celtics, 7pm ET - Last season these two teams were eerily similar with the Cavs have the 2nd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +9.6, the Celtics were right behind them at +9.4. But that Celtics roster included Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford who are injured (Tatum) or not on the roster anymore. The Cavs return the core of their roster including All-Stars Mobley and Mitchell. The Cavs were -2-point favorites at Detroit and at New York this season and we grade those two teams significantly better than this Celtics roster. Boston is coming off their first win of the season at New Orleans who currently rate as the 2nd worst team in the NBA when it comes to eDiff. The Cavs have won 2 straight games against Eastern Conference contenders the Bucks and Pistons. Cleveland is shooting the ball significantly better than the Celtics right now at 47.6% overall (11th) and 36.8% from deep (11th) compared to Boston’s numbers of 44.8% and 31.9% which both rank 26th or worse in the NBA.

#283 ASA PLAY ON Washington Commanders +11.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last few weeks and that’s giving us huge line value with Washington in this game. To put this +11.5 line in perspective, it is almost basically the same number that KC was laying last week vs Las Vegas who is one of the worst teams in the NFL (that line was -13 to -13.5). To compare those 2 teams via DVOA, Washington ranks 7th in the NFL and Las Vegas is 28th. You get the point. On top of that, we get a playoff caliber team Washington coming off a blowout, embarrassing loss @ Dallas 44-22. The Commanders had 2 turnovers in that loss (0 for Dallas) and both led to TD’s for the Cowboys including a pick 6. Washington was also missing 2 of their key offensive weapons in that game, Samuel and McLaurin, and both are expected back here. QB Jayden Daniels was injured in the game and will not play here but he has struggled his last few starts so that may be a bonus. Marcus Mariota is one of the best back ups on the league and this will be his 3rd start this season (1-1 record). KC is coming off a shutout win vs a plummeting Las Vegas team and the Raiders ran only 30 total offensive plays which is insanely low. That easy win, along with Washington’s poor performance pushed this line to -12.5 and the look ahead number last week was -5.5. A full TD move based on last week’s results + the QB injury for the Commanders which may not set them back at all offensively. KC has their rivalry game with Buffalo on deck so if they get ahead late look for them to dial it back on offense. Washington’s road games this year had them +3 at Green Bay, +3 at LA Chargers, +2.5 at Atlanta, and +1.5 at Dallas. Now they’re getting almost 2 TD’s here? We’ll take Washington.

ASA play on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 vs Boston Celtics, 8:10 pm ET - It’s the battle of “beatens” tonight as the 0-3 Celtics take on the 0-2 Pelicans. New Orleans does enjoy a scheduling advantage here as they last played on Friday, while the Celtics played yesterday making this the 2nd of a back-to-back and it’s also their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have some injuries to their bigs and it's shown in their first two games, but a small lineup tonight won’t hurt them. Boston has been outrebounded 108-75 in their last two games as the offseason losses of Porzingis, Horford and Kornet have taken a toll on their frontcourt. New Orleans has lost two close games to the Grizzlies and Spurs and have been dominated inside with opponents averaging 60ppg in the paint. The Celtics can’t take advantage of that weakness as they rank 24th in points scored in the paint. Boston lives and dies with the 3-point shot and the Pelicans are 2nd in the league in 3PT% defense at 30%. The Celtics still have a bullseye on their backs from a Championship two years ago so it’s not like the Pelicans will be looking past them here. There is a reason the Pels are favored here, lay the points!

#279 ASA PLAY ON Dallas Cowboys +3.5 over Denver Broncos, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Denver had an absolute miracle win over the Giants last week here at home. They trailed 19-0 in the 4th quarter but rallied to put up 33 points in the fourth quarter for a 33-32 win. The Broncos are 5-2 but they’ve played the 4th easiest schedule to date and 4 of their 5 wins have come against the Jets, Bengals, Titans, and Giants. Those 4 teams all rank 27th or lower in overall DVOA. Their one OK win came vs the Eagles, who are obviously down this year, and Denver rallied from a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit to squeak that one out. All of their wins with the exception of Cincinnati have been 1 score games. The Cowboys have been able to stay in games with their high powered offense. Of their 3 losses, 2 have come by 4 points or less. They rank #1 in total offense and are averaging almost 30 PPG. They also got a huge boost last week with WR Lamb getting back in the line up for their 44-22 win over Washington. They have scored at least 27 points in 5 of their last 6 games and while Denver has great numbers of defense, they’ve already faced 4 opposing offenses ranked 26th or lower. They’ve faced only 2 top 10 offenses and lost both of those games vs Chargers and Colts. They are just 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite. We have a big edge at QB here with Dak Prescott having an MVP type year (#1 QBR) vs an up and down Bo Nix. If we look strictly at DVOA, Dallas is the better team ranking 9th compared to 14th for Denver. Take the points here.

#272 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Eagles -7 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Look, we’re all about finding edges where the market’s sleeping, and this Eagles-Giants matchup is screaming opportunity. Forget team loyalty—this is about exploiting a line that’s begging to be played. Philly’s coming off their best offensive showing of the season, averaging 7.8 yards per play against Minnesota, and now they’re back home where they’ve been fantastic, posting a 12-2 SU record in their last 14 at Lincoln Financial Field with a +9.6 point differential. Meanwhile, the Giants are reeling. They pulled off a massive upset 34-17 upset over Philly two weeks ago in their own building, but last week’s collapse in Denver—blowing a 19-0 lead and giving up 33 points in the fourth quarter alone—exposed their defensive frailties. Our internal metrics rank the Eagles 9th overall, while the Giants limp in at 25th. Philly’s had two weeks to dissect tape on New York’s rookie QB Jaxson Dart, so no surprises this time. The same -7.5 spread was set when these teams met in New York, but now the Eagles have momentum, home-field dominance, and a chip on their shoulders. Don’t overthink this one, take Philadelphia and don’t look back.

ASA play on: Hornets +4.5 at 76ers, 7:40pm ET - The Charlotte Hornets looked sharp in their season opener, dismantling the Brooklyn Nets 136-117 behind a franchise-record nine players in double figures, including 25 points from Brandon Miller and 20 points with eight assists from LaMelo Ball. Their balanced attack and 53.3% field goal shooting signal a team that's bought into new coach Charles Lee's system early—no injuries to report, and they're riding high heading into Philly. On the flip side, the 76ers' 117-116 thriller over the Celtics was a mirage propped up by unsustainable shooting from Tyrese Maxey (40 points on 13-of-24) and rookie VJ Edgecombe (34 points on 13-of-26), who combined for a ridiculous 26-of-50 from the field. That's 52% efficiency on high volume—well above Maxey's career 45.5% mark or any reasonable rookie baseline for Edgecombe. Expect regression tonight, especially with Charlotte's backcourt (Ball, Tre Mann) primed to hound them. Joel Embiid was a non-factor in his return from knee surgery, logging just 20 minutes with four points on 1-of-9 shooting and visibly limited mobility—no lift on shots, slow recovery on the floor. He's on a strict minutes cap and doesn't look anywhere near MVP form yet, leaving the Sixers thin inside against Charlotte's frontcourt depth (Miles Bridges' 18-11 double-double in the opener). Paul George remains sidelined with a knee issue, thinning the wings further.

#176 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - Texas continues to be vastly overvalued in our opinion. They are just 2-5 ATS and 0-2 ATS as a road favorite. On the other end, MSU has been and continues to be undervalued. They are 6-1 ATS this year and have already beaten a very good Arizona State team here and they took Tennessee to OT. The Vols had 2 defensive TD’s in that game and the Bulldogs still pushed them to overtime where they lost by 7. This will be the 2nd straight road game for the Horns. Last week they traveled to Kentucky, who we have rated as the worst team in the SEC, and squeaked out a 16-13 win in OT. Take a look at the stats in that game. Texas had a total of 179 yards (including the 2 OT’s) and Kentucky, whose offense isn’t great (94th in total offense), had 395 yards. The Horns offense is bad. They rank outside the top 70 in total offense, passing, rushing, and scoring. Their offensive line has been a disaster and QB Manning has been average at best. MSU is coming off a 2 point loss @ Florida last Saturday in a game they outgained the Gators. Their only non-competitive game was @ Texas A&M and that was the week after they came off their OT home loss vs Tennessee and had a number of guys on the shelf with injuries after that one. Their offense has been solid averaging over 400 YPG and 32 PPG. MSU’s defense has been solid holding 5 of their 7 opponents to 23 points or less. This is a huge home game for State while Texas has bigger fish to fry next weekend when they host top 10 Vanderbilt. We think this one stays close and wouldn’t be shocked if the Bulldogs pull the upset.

ASA NBA play on Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Golden State Warriors, 10pm ET - You may be shocked by the following but the Nuggets have dominated the Warriors in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last ten meetings. Denver is our pick to win the Championship this season with a much improved roster over last years, with the additions of Bruce Brown, Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr and Jonas Valanciunas. The Warriors looked good in their opener against the Lakers who were without LeBron, but now they step up in class against this Championship contender. Denver will again center everything they do around Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray. SGA may have won the MVP a year ago but the best player in the league was Jokic. The Joker played in just two games against the Warriors a year ago and scored 71 total points, grabbed 22 rebounds and dished out 15 assists. Golden State brought in Al Horford at center but his days of being able to contain Jokic are long gone. Denver was one of just 12 teams in the league to have a positive point differential on the road at +2.1ppg. Golden State is not as dominant at home like they used to be as they were 24-17 SU at home a year ago with an average MOV of +2.2ppg. The much better team is getting points here and we will gladly jump in with a play on Denver.

ASAwins NBA play on Toronto Raptors +5.5 at Atlanta Hawks, 7:40pm ET - There are some high expectations for the Hawks this season and they find themselves in the unfamiliar role as the ‘hunted’ instead of the ‘hunter’. Atlanta made some bold moves in the offseason and brought in Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to make a bid for the Eastern Conference title. We love the young talent on this roster with Risacher, Johnson and Daniels but we’re not sure they are ready to make that type of jump, especially early on. Toronto is a sleeper team this season and one that could surprise teams early on. This Raptors team has a solid starting lineup with Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl which played well in the second half of the season a year ago. Toronto was 22-21 in the second half of the season with elite defensive numbers. From the All-Star break on, the Raptors Defensive Efficiency rating of 1.122 points allowed per possession was top 10 in the NBA. Even with injuries last season the Raptors average loss margin on the road was -5.8ppg. Atlanta was 21-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of minus -1.3ppg. The Hawks were 7-13 ATS as a home favorite last season with a plus/minus of +0.3ppg. Raptors also 21-17 ATS as a road pooch. We will grab the points but don’t be shocked if Toronto wins this outright.

#476 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions -5.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for Detroit coming off a loss last week @ KC. Their loss @ KC wasn’t a huge surprise as the Chiefs have been playing very well and it was more of a must win for them at home. The YPP numbers were close to even in that game. They had won their previous 4 games by a combined score of 161-85 (all by at least 8 points) with the offense scoring at least 34 points in all of those games. Tampa is sitting at 5-1 on the season yet NFL DVOA (advanced metric) has them as the 13th best team in the league (Detroit is 3rd). Not surprising as 4 of Tampa’s 5 wins have been come from behind wins in the last minute of the game with 3 of those coming in the final 6 seconds of the game. Despite their 5-1 record, they are only +14 in overall point differential which is 13th in the NFL. The Bucs are also really banged up right now. Baker Mayfield has had a very good year to this point but it looks like he will be without ALL of his starting skill position players on Sunday. That’s RB Irving, WR’s Evans, Godwin, and Egbuka. Tampa is coming off a 30-19 home win over San Francisco which was their only comfortable win this season and even in that game the Bucs were outgained but benefitted from 2 Niner turnovers (0 for TB). The Lions have some extra motivation here after losing 20-16 at home vs Tampa last year despite outgaining the Bucs 463 to 216. They were -7.5 point favorites in that game and now we’re getting the Lions under a TD in a great situational spot. Detroit is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS playing at home off a loss since 2023 with a averaging winning margin of +15.5 PPG. Head coach Dan Campbell is at ATS machine with a 57-31-2 spread record which is easily the best in the NFL.

#473 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +2 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - San Francisco remains really banged up and we’ll side with the dog in this one. The Niners will again be without starting QB Purdy along with many of their offensive weapons including TE Kittle, WR Pearsall, WR Aiyuk (getting closer to practicing), and WR Valdez-Scantling. They also lost arguably their top defensive player last week as well with LB Warner out and DE Bosa was already sidelined. They did win their first 3 games of the season (by a combined 10 points) when they were at least semi healthy (Purdy did miss 2 of those games). Over their last 3, the Niners have gone 1-2 with their only win coming in OT vs the Rams in a game San Fran was outgained by 7.1 to 4.9 YPP. The defense has allowed at least 7.0 YPP in 2 of their last 3 games. SF is 4-2 on the season but has a -3 point differential (20th in the NFL) and their YPP differential is only +0.1 (18th in the NFL). They’ve been pretty fortunate piecing together a winning record to this point but their injuries are starting to catch up with them. Atlanta is better than their 3-2 record. They have some impressive wins over Buffalo, Washington, and @ Minnesota and they rank 5th in the NFL in YPP margin. The Birds are outgaining their opponents by +125 YPG and they lead the league in rushing at 151 YPG on the ground while SF can’t run the ball (82 YPG). Atlanta ranks higher than San Francisco in offensive and defensive YPG and YPP and they’ve faced the tougher schedule. The Falcons offense leads the NFL averaging 379 YPG. We’ll take the better team getting points on Sunday night.

#459 ASA PLAY ON New Orleans Saints +5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We know you are backing a bad team here in the Saints but are the Bears that much better? Let’s look at Chicago first and their 3 game winning streak. Granted, winning in the NFL isn’t easy and wins are wins but the Bears beat Dallas despite getting outgained (Cowboys in bad scheduling spot off Giants and Packers on deck), beat the Raiders – outgained – and got a last second win Monday night over the Commanders. Should they really be laying 5-points here. The Saints have just one win on the season but don’t look like a team that has quit with three of their losses coming by 1-score. New Orleans has also faced the tougher schedule with games against the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and 49ers, yet have similar statistics to Chicago. Saints average 4.9YPP and 305 yards per game. The Bears average 338YPG but are more explosive at 5.7YPP. New Orleans is 18th in total yards allowed per game at 327 at 5.5YPP. The Bears give up an average of 369YPG at 6.6YPP (most in the league). Chicago has a home record of 11-16 SU dating back to the start of the 2022 season with an average margin of victory of +0.1ppg which isn’t enough to get a cover here. New Orleans is 9-18 SU their last 27 road games BUT they have an average loss margin in those games is -3.3ppg. This is going to be a FG game either way.

#390 ASA PLAY ON Tulane -9.5 over Army, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Tulane has had this date circled all season long after losing to Army last year in the AAC Championship game. The Wave were favored by -5-points at Michie Stadium a year ago which makes today’s line a bargain. Tulane lost 35-14 last season but averaged 6.0 YPP compared to the Knights 5.9 YPP. The Green Wave botched field goal attempts after their first two drives, then fumbling a kickoff and had a pass intercepted in their own territory on the next two possessions. Army is not the team they were a year ago and Tulane is slightly better. The Wave are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS this season with signature wins over Northwestern and Duke. Last week the Wave beat East Carolina 26-19 as a -6.5-point favorite but the final score could have been much worse. Tulane had their first four drives stopped inside the 40-yard line and settled for FG’s. Tulane averaged 7.4 YPP vs. ECU and held the Pirates to 340 total yards at 4.6 YPP. Speaking of ECU…Army recently lost to the Pirates 6-28 and were thoroughly dominated by the Pirates. The Knights are coming off a pair of wins against UAB and Charlotte who are two of the worst FBS programs in the country. The pedestrian Black Knights offense (4.9YPP – 122nd nationally) will have a tough time keeping pace with the Wave (5.9 YPP) playing with a revenge mindset. Lay it with Tulane!

#962 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+110) over Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8:38 PM ET - Same situation we successfully used yesterday with our run line pick on LA.  The fact is that the Brewers enter this game slumping so far in this series and now down 3 games to 0 which also puts even more pressure on them at the plate.  Make sure you select 'action' on the pitchers here as that is not a key factor for us.  Ohtani is the expected starter for the Dodgers and he had a respectable post-season start at Philly in NLDS action.  He also was strong late in the season plus he had a 1.71 ERA and held opponents to a .151 batting average in his 7 home starts this season.  Even if LA goes with an opener or changes their mind on Ohtani, we love having the Dodgers here.  The Brewers have not announced a starter at the time we are writing this up but it simply is not the most critical factor as right now they simply can not shake their slump at the plate.  Also the Dodgers crushed the ball at home this season, the #1 slugging percentage in the majors and the Brewers are hitting .152 in their 3 road games in this post-season.  That said, Milwaukee is in trouble now as the Dodgers went 52-29 at home this season and LA is on an overall 13-1 run dating back to the final week of the regular season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost all 3 post-season road games and also wrapped up the regular season losing 7 of the last 9 road games!  Of course the Dodgers are a huge money line favorite here because of all of the factors noted above.  However, the run line is where the value is at as it is available at a plus money return here and we invest in a strong home team with big edges.  Lay the 1.5 runs Friday with the LA Dodgers!  

#312 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - While Pittsburgh is sitting at 4-1 on the season, we’re not so sure they deserve to be. The Steelers have been very fortunate to get to that record as they’ve been outgained by 79 YPG, by 0.2 YPP, and by 0.7 YPC (rushing). The Bengals showed some life last week with new acquired Joe Flacco at QB hanging with Green Bay on the road (Cincy cover). They lost that game by 9 points (27-18 final) and the Bengals scored all 18 points in the 2nd half giving them some momentum heading into Thursday’s game. Flacco was solid completing 29 of 45 pass attempts with 2 TD’s. Cincy has played only 2 home games so far this season and they’ve been solid in those 2 games. They beat Jacksonville with their back up QB Browning (Burrow went out very early in that game) and then despite their home loss to Detroit, the yardage was pretty close (365 to 322 in favor of the Lions) but 3 turnovers by the Bengals were the difference (Browning started that game). Pittsburgh is off an easy 23-9 home win vs Cleveland last week but they benefitted from catching the Browns in a horrible situation (3rd straight game away for Cleveland and coming back from London with no bye). That fact is, the Steelers have been outgained in 3 of their 4 wins and despite their 4-1 record their point differential is only +12 which is 15th in the NFL. 5 of last 6 games in this AFC North series have been decided by a single score. 3 of Pittsburgh’s 4 wins have come by 7 or less and we like this one to stay tight. Take the points.

#958 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 6:08 PM ET - The Brewers went 6-0 against the Dodgers in the regular season and that included 2 wins in games in which Tyler Glasnow was on the hill for LA.  However, Glasnow did pitch well and allowed only 1 earned run while striking out 11 in 11 innings on the mound in those two outings.  The point is that the Milwaukee lineup certainly did not enjoy success against him and now the Brewers enter this game slumping so far in this series and down 2 games to 0 which also puts more pressure on them.  Make sure you select 'action' on the pitchers here as, though Johan Quintana might start, the Brewers have not made a firm announcement on this as of early Thursday morning.  Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy has merely stated that all pitchers, other than Freddy Peralta, are available for this game.  However, that may not help the Brewers anyway as their bullpen guys have allowed 4 of the 7 Dodgers runs so far in this series.  Simply put, Milwaukee is in trouble now as the Dodgers went 52-29 at home this season and Glasnow has been strong thus far in the post-season.  Also, in the regular season Glasnow held opponents to a .177 batting average this year and a .190 batting average last year!  LA is on a 12-1 run dating back to the final week of the regular season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have lost both post-season road games and also wrapped up the regular season losing 7 of the last 9 road games!  Of course the Dodgers are a huge money line favorite here because of all of the factors noted above.  However, the run line is where the value is at it is available at a plus money return here and we invest in a strong home team with big edges.  Lay the 1.5 runs Thursday with the LA Dodgers!   

#276 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over Buffalo Bills, Monday at 7 PM ET - Do we really know how good the Bills are at this point? We hear many anointing them the best team in the AFC but we’re not so sure. The NFL DVOA metric has them rated as the 9th best team in the NFL with Atlanta just a few spots behind. Let’s look how they’ve gotten to their current 4-1 record. First, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. In week 1 they came from 15 points down with under 4:00 remaining to beat the Ravens scoring 17 points in the final 3:56. While Baltimore has had some injuries, even prior to that they’ve shown they might not be near the level they were a year ago. After that the Bills beat the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints who have a combined record of 2-13 (as of Sunday morning). Last week, the Patriots played them toe to toe (both averaged 6.0 YPP) and won in Buffalo 23-20. We’re not sure the Bills should be favored by a FG or more here. Atlanta is in a great spot coming off a bye week. We think the Falcons are undervalued right now. Their 2 losses came vs Tampa Bay, who scored with under 1 minute remaining to get the 3 point win, and @ Carolina. That game still baffles us. The Birds outgained Carolina by more than 100 yards, had more first downs, averaged 5.7 YPC rushing to 3.7 for the Panthers and lost big. 3 turnovers didn’t help. Atlanta has some nice momentum heading into the bye beat a good Washington team while outgaining them 435 to 294. They have a mobile QB (Penix) and are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL (6th) facing a Buffalo defense that ranks 28th vs the run. The Falcons have played the much tougher schedule, yet still have better YPG and YPP margins. Their defense has been outstanding and currently ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed. We think this game goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks +1 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday a 1 PM ET - We were on Seattle last week and they lost on a FG as time expired. Actually Tampa scored 10 points in the final 1:05 of that game to come from behind and win. The Seahawks offense was really good averaging a whopping 8.6 YPP in that loss. The defense came into the game as one of the best in the NFL and threw up a stinker allowing TB to score 38 points after not allowing any of their first 4 opponents to top 20 points. We like the defense to bounce back and play very well here. Seattle still ranks in the top 10 in defensive DVOA and they rank as the 2nd best team in the NFL overall DVOA. Their YPP margin of +1.2 is the 2nd best in the NFL. This team is much better than their 3-2 record. They catch the Jags on a short week after beating KC on Monday night in one of their biggest home wins in the last 3 or 4 seasons. The Chiefs actually dominated Jacksonville in the stat sheet with 476 total yards (7.6 YPP) to just 319 yards for Jags on 5.9 YPP. Jacksonville won the turnover battle in that game including a game changing 99 yard pick 6 which was a 14 point turnaround. Despite that, they still needed a TD with 23 seconds left to win by 3. The Jaguars lead the NFL in turnover margin and have 4 more takeaways (14) than anyone else in the NFL. That’s not sustainable and once the turnovers even out, this team won’t be as successful. Despite their 4-1 record, they are getting outgained on a YPG and YPP basis on the season. We don’t love the long travel for the Seahawks, but that is offset a bit by Jacksonville playing on a short week. The better team is getting points here and the Seahawks have won 9 of their last 10 road games outright. We’ll take Seattle to win this game.

#158 ASA PLAY ON Texas Tech -14 over Kansas, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Texas Tech has been absolutely dominant winning every game by at least 24 points including road wins @ Utah and @ Houston. They are one of 5 teams in the country that average more than 7.0 YPP on offense while allowing less than 4.5 YPP on defense. They are elite on both sides of the ball. Best team money can buy so to speak as the Red Raiders have one of the highest funded programs in the country and the picked up a lot of key, experienced transfers. They have big edges on both sides of the ball. Kansas is solid offensive (40th in total offense) but their defense has left a lot to be desired this season (79th in total defense). The Jayhawks are also playing their 2nd straight road game after topping UCF on the road last week 27-20. It wasn’t overly impressive as KU had fewer first downs, had less total yardage, and the Hawks were outgained 5.1 YPC to 3.8 YPC on the ground. UCF led 14-0 in that game and lost their starting QB Jackson in the 3rd quarter. The only 2 teams Kansas has played this season that rank in our top 50 power rankings are Cincinnati and Missouri and they lost to both of those teams. The only comparable team to Texas Tech is Missouri and while KU “only” lost that game 42-31, they were outgained 595 to 254 in that loss and scored 1 of their TD’s on a fumble return. Not sure how Kansas slows down a Tech offense on the road that has tallied at least 552 yards in every game but 1. And in that game, they put up 484 yards on a very good Utah defense. On top of that, not sure how the Jayhawks put up big numbers to keep up here vs a Tech defense that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game this season. Potential blowout here.

#113 ASA PLAY ON East Carolina +6.5 over Tulane, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - ECU sits at 3-2 with losses vs BYU and NC State. They’ve been competitive in every game with the exception of their loss vs BYU (lost @ NC State by 7). Tulane is 4-1 with their lone loss coming in blowout fashion vs Ole Miss. Tulane has played the slightly more difficult schedule but ECU’s overall numbers are far superior. The Pirates rank in the top 30 nationally in both total offense and defense. The Green Wave ranks 68th in total offense and 103rd in total defense. ECU has a +1.1 YPP differential while Tulane is -0.2. ECU’s point differential is +17 PPG while Tulane is +2 PPG. The Pirates can definitely score enough to stay in this game as they average 30 PPG and are facing a Tulane defense that is the 2nd lowest rated total defense ECU has faced this season. The Green Wave relies heavily on the run averaging 41 rush attempts per game (28th nationally) but ECU has been stout on the ground allowing just 3.3 YPC (34th). On the other side, the Pirates average 315 YPG through the air (10th in the country) behind senior QB Houser who is completing 68% of his passes. The Tulane defense ranks 110th in pass defense allowing 251 YPG and 85th allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. These teams have met 20 times since 1991 and Tulane has beaten ECU by more than 10 points only 3 times, so we expect another close game tonight.

#104 ASA PLAY ON UTEP +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Both of these teams step into this contest with 1-4 records. Our power ratings have UTEP as a slight favorite so we have some value with the home team in our opinion. For reference, in their most recent home game 2 weeks ago, the Miners were 3.5 points dogs vs La Tech who we have rated 12 points better than this Liberty team yet his line is nearly the same. UTEP lost that game 30-11, however they outgained La Tech but committed 5 turnovers. In their game prior to that, the Miners lost 31-25 vs UL Monroe and again outgained their opponent but lost the turnover battle 2-0. Head coach Scotty Walden is sticking with starting QB Nelson despite his recent struggles but he is very talented as a former 5 Star QB who has been at USC and Boise State. If he struggles again, this backup Locklear was the starter last year so he has experience. Liberty is playing their 4th road game in their last 5 and they’ve already lost 2 games outright as a favorite @ Bowling Green and @ Jacksonville State. The best unit on the field on Wednesday night will be UTEP’s defense. They rank 45th nationally in YPP allowed and 56th in total D. All of the other units (UTEP offense, Liberty defense, and Liberty offense) all rank outside the top 100 in total offense/defense and efficiency (YPP allowed and YPP gained). These 2 have played similar strength of schedules and UTEP and a positive YPG and YPP margin which Liberty is negative in both including. We’ll side with the Miners at home getting points in this one.

#478 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Seahawks -3.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Sunday at 4 PM ET - First off, the situation definitely favors Seattle. They played last Thursday at Arizona (23-20 win) so they have had 10 days to prepare and rest. Tampa is playing their 3rd road game in the first 5 weeks and have to travel about as far as you can travel in this league for this one. The Bucs are a bit fortunate to be 3-1 on the season as their first 3 wins all came with a score in the last minute of play. They beat Atlanta with a TD with under 1:00 minute left, beat Houston with a TD with 6 seconds left, and beat the Jets with a FG as time expired. Last week they lost their first game of the season vs Philadelphia. The Eagles got out to a 24-3 lead in that game and held on for a 31-25 win. The Tampa offense hasn’t been clicking early in the season ranking 22nd in YPP, 16th in YPC (rushing), and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. They will be missing their top 2 offensive weapons in this game with WR Evans and RB Irving both injured. Their other WR Godwin just returned from an injury (hadn’t played since week 7 last year) last week and wasn’t overly effective (3 catches in 10 targets) as he works his way back. We don’t see a path to success here offensively for the Bucs missing those 2 guys and facing a Seattle defense that ranks #2 DVOA and allowed only 1.46 points per drive which is 2nd best in the NFL. Seattle’s offense has been a surprise ranking 9th in YPP and 6th in scoring at 28 PPG with veteran QB Darnold having another good season. Because they’ve been solid on both sides of the ball, Seattle’s YPP margin is +1.2 which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Their only loss was a 17-13 setback vs the Niners when SF was healthy. It took a late SF TD (1:30 left) to win that one otherwise Seattle is undefeated. Let’s lay it here.

#469 ASA PLAY ON Denver Broncos +4.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Eagles are 4-0 but their metrics say this is a 2-2 team at best. They’ve been outgained both YPG and YPP in every game this season. Their YPP margin is -1.2 which ranks 28th in the NFL and they are getting outrushed 3.5 YPC to 4.8 YPC. Last week they won with 200 total yards and they didn’t complete a pass in the 2nd half. They rank 30th in the NFL in total offense and Philly is getting outgained by an average of 82 YPG. Two weeks ago they trailed the Rams 26-7 in the 2nd half a pulled out a win with a blocked FG attempt returned for TD as time expired (we were on Rams ughh!). This team can’t continue winning the way they are playing this season. They are going to get clipped soon and we think it’s this weekend. Denver is off an easy 28-3 win over a bad Cincy team but dominated with +20 first down differential and over 500 yards of offense. The Broncos are close to being 4-0 as well (2-2 right now) as their 2 losses came @ LA Chargers by 3 and @ Indianapolis by 1 (2 playoff caliber teams) and they led both games in the 4th quarter. While Philly has a number of negative differentials we’ve discussed the Broncos are +0.9 YPP, +70 YPG, and +1.0 YPC (rushing). The Denver defense is one of the best in the NFL ranking 2nd in scoring D and in the top 10 in total D and YPP allowed. They should have plenty of success facing an Eagle offense that ranks 29th or lower in total offense, YPP, rushing YPC, and passing offense. We think Denver has a great shot at winning this game but even if not, getting above +3 is key as both of their were by a FG or less. We’ll take the points here.

#374 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +9.5 over Illinois, Saturday 12 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this selection as the Illini are in a tough spot off two huge emotional games at Indiana, then home against USC, facing Purdue with Ohio State on deck. That’s not all, the Boilermakers were off last week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Illinois. If you compare each team’s season statistics side-by-side there are many similarities and Illinois does not have enough separation to warrant this spread. The Boilers have faced Notre Dame and USC this season and despite lopsided final scores they played well offensively in both with 379 total yards against the Irish and 354 versus the Trojans. The Illini defense has some holes as shown in their games against USC and Indiana. USC just shredded them for 490-total yards at 6.2YPP and Indiana roasted them for 63-points, 579 total yards at 8.0YPP. This Purdue passing attack is more than capable of trading points with the Illini and should keep this game close throughout, much like last year in the 50-49 OT Illini win.

ASA Las Vegas Aces -3 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 8pm ET - The Aces got off to a rough start to the season after a roster overhaul but then finished the season red hot with 16 straight wins to end the regular season. They have a strong history at home and even with a slow start this season they went 17-5 in Vegas with an average plus/minus of +5.8ppg. The Aces won the regular season series with the Mercury 4-1 with a 3-0 home court advantage and an average margin of victory in those games of +5.5ppg. Phoenix made some dramatic roster changes themselves this season and it’s certainly paid off but this opener is going to be a tough assignment for them. Phoenix did knock off New York and Minnesota in the first two rounds of the playoffs but spreads for the Mercury on the road were +5 at NY, +9.5 and +7.5 at Minnesota. The Aces are laying a much lower number here and finished the last two months of the season as the best team in the W. Wilson and the Aces get a 6 or more point home win in the opener.

#251 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET – Game in being played in Ireland - Both these teams are 2-1 on the season but there is a drastic difference in key stat margins. The Vikings have a +25 point differential while Pittsburgh’s is -5. Minnesota has a +0.9 YPP differential and a +0.3 YPC (rushing) differential. The Steelers have a -1.3 YPP differential and a -1.5 YPC differential. Pittsburgh has been outgained on a YPG and YPP basis in all 3 of their games this year and they are already -417 in total yardage through 3 games. They’ve been very fortunate with a +5 turnover margin in their 2 wins. They rank 30th in total offense and 26th in total defense. The only other team in the NFL that ranks in the bottom 7 in both total offense and total defense are the Tennessee Titans. This Pittsburgh team has the stats of an 0-3 team. Minnesota is coming off a 48-10 home win over Cincinnati last week (we were on the Vikings). While they did have some big time help with the Bengals committing 5 turnovers, the Vikes still averaged over 6.0 YPP so the offense was playing well. Veteran QB Carson Wentz stepped in and played well for the injured JJ McCarthy. We think this is an upgrade short-term as Minnesota was struggling with McCarthy under center (5.2 and 4.3 YPP in their first 2 games). The Viking defense has been really solid and will easily be the best unit on the field in this game. They rank 6th in total defense, 7th in YPP defense, and 3rd in pass defense. They have allowed a TD on just 11% of opponent possessions which is the best mark in the NFL. The Pittsburgh offense has yet to top 271 total yards and QB Rodgers has been below average ranking 23rd in QBR. They’ll struggle offensively vs this Minnesota defense. The favorite in NFL overseas games are 32-18 ATS and we like Minnesota laying under a FG.

#179 ASA PLAY ON Marshall +1.5 over Louisiana Lafayette, Saturday at 8 PM ET - ULL has some major concerns at the quarterback position after the loss or QB Walker Howard, who was injured in the season opener against Rice. Daniel Beale has filled in but has been less than effective with 313 total passing yards on 50.7% completions with 1 TD and 2 INT’s. The O-line doesn’t help matters as they are one of the worst in the nation when it comes to efficiency stats with a sack percentage allowed of 7.23% (96th). The Cajuns are scoring just 17.7ppg, rank 129th in total yards per game (267) at 4.8 yards per play (107th). ULL is coming off a road loss to Eastern Michigan who rates significantly lower in our ratings compared to Marshall. The Herd are coming off an impressive 42-28 win at Middle Tennessee State with QB Del Rio-Wilson completing 18/22 passes for 261 yards and 4 TD’s. Marshall averaged 6.1YPP in that game against MTU and outgained the Blue Raiders by 75-total yards. The Herd are averaging 180 rushing yards per game (58th) this season and will face a ULL defense allowing 215 rushing yards per game (129th). The Cajuns strength is also running the football at 199ypg, but the Herd defense allows the 35th fewest rushing yards per game at 102.5 and we already discussed their passing woes. Marshall went to Louisiana last season as a 5-point underdog and won 31-3, outgaining ULL by 155 total yards. This one may be just as ugly. Take the road team.

#176 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -1.5 over LSU, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We think LSU is a bit overvalued right now. Their 2 “big” wins over Clemson (by 7) and Florida (by 10) don’t look all that great anymore. Clemson now sits at 1-3 on the year with losses to Ga Tech and Syracuse while Florida was destroyed last week by Miami FL. To quicky compare, LSU faced Florida 2 weeks ago and won 20-10. The Gators actually outgained the Tigers but had 5 turnovers. LSU only scored 13 offensive points as one TD was a pick 6. Last week, Florida was dominated by Miami with only 7 first downs and 141 total yards. The LSU offense has not been impressive. They’ve scored 17 vs Clemson, 23 vs La Tech and 20 (actually 13 on offense) vs Florida. They can’t run the ball ranking 112th in rushing. Are they going to be able to keep up here? Ole Miss ranks 9th in total offense and they sit in the top 25 in YPP, rushing, and passing while average 45 PPG. The strength of schedule is almost identical for these 2 undefeated teams yet Ole Miss has better YPG, YPP, YPC (rushing), and point differentials. The Rebels have been waiting for this one. They lost @ LSU last season 29-26 in OT with the Tigers sending the game to OT with a TD in the last 30 seconds of regulation. Ole Miss had the better stats in that game (464 yards to 421 for LSU) and head coach Lane Kiffin was flustered after that loss. “This was like, our game. We had the game and let it slip away. To go into the bye 6-1, or whatever it is, in really good shape and get healthy, would have been great. This one will be hard. It will be around forever.” Tough to beat this team at home where they’ve won 27 of their last 30 games. With this number currently sitting at -1 and -1.5 basically all we need is a home win. Let’s take the Rebels.

#914 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 1:05 PM ET - The Yankees have not only won 6 straight games and 9 of 10 and 12 of 15, they also have been frequently winning by a margin. In fact, 27 of the Yankees last 31 victories have all come by a margin of at least 2 runs! All signs point to another blowout here. Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano has given up some big runs in 4 of his last 5 starts including getting roughed up by the Yankees in his most recent start. So this will not be an easy task for him as Sugano again faces a red hot Yankees lineup. As for Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler, he has been pitching very well this season and has produced well in almost all his starts! The rookie hurler has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 8 starts! Also, this included dominating Baltimore in his most recent start! While the Yankees have been red hot, the Orioles have lost 8 of 14 and 10 of the last 11 Baltimore defeats have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting another home blowout here! We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a pick'em price with the Yankees here. Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees Saturday!

ASAwins WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -3.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 9:30PM ET - The conspiracy handicapper is coming out in me today and there is no way the WNBA doesn’t get a Finals with the best team in the league, the Lynx in it. Minnesota led by 20-points midway through the 3rd quarter last game and blew that big lead before losing in OT. The Mercury shot above expectations from beyond the arc and the Lynx shot below them. Phoenix plays great defense holding opponents to 42.3% shooting overall and 31.5% from Deep. The problem for the Mercury is that the Lynx are better defensively holding teams to 42.1% FG% overall with the best Defensive Net rating in the league. The big separator comes offensively for both teams. Minnesota has the best Offensive Net rating in the W, the Mercury are 7th. Phoenix is the 9th worst shooting team in the league, 6th in 3PT%. In comparison the Lynx are the best shooting team overall and 3PT% team so we don’t see a repeat of their 25% 3PT% in this elimination game. Minnesota is 15-8 SU on the road this season with an average plus/minus of +5.8ppg, best differential in the league. Minnesota was robbed last year in the Finals and they won’t blow this opportunity to win it all in 2025. Lay the points here with the Lynx who have won 8 of the last ten meetings with the Mercury.

French Ligue 1 Soccer #203202 ASA PLAY ON Strasbourg +0.5 (-120) over Marseille, Friday at 2:45 ET - Of course we can not bad-mouth Marseille as they just beat PSG and they are justified in being favored here. However, we do feel that this has opened up exceptional value on the goal line at plus a half goal with the home underdogs in what we perceive to be a very tight match and also one in which we expect an upset.  This is a very tough spot for Marseille. They are on the road and off a huge upset after knocking off PSG by a 1-0 count in a hard-fought battle. Ironically Strasbourg beat Marseille by that same count the last time they met here and that is the only victory in the last 6 meetings between these clubs.  That means if  you had Strasbourg at +0.5 goals in each of their last 6 meetings with Marseille you would be 6-0 last 6!  Strasbourg is 4-1 in league action including 2-0 at home.  Marseille is 3-2 in league action but 0-2 on the road.  So if you had the home team in all 5 Marseille matches in French Ligue 1 you would be 5-0 thus far on the season in their games!  That trend continues here as this is the perfect situational spot for the home dog.  This one has upset potential written all over it and, if not, at least a draw in which case we also cash this bet! We will take Strasbourg on the goal line (+0.5) in this one.

ASAwins WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -7.5 vs Phoenix Mercury, 7:30 PM ET - The Lynx won by 13 in the opener of this series and we feel its going to get worse for the Mercury before it gets better. Minnesota had a scheduling advantage going into that game as they beat Golden State in 2 games in round 1 of the playoffs. The Mercury on the other hand were coming off a big upset of the Liberty in a 3-game series. The Mercury were solid on the road this season with a 13-11 SU record and an average loss margin of -1.6ppg. The Lynx average +/- at home was +13ppg, the highest differential in the league. Phoenix plays great defense holding opponents to 42.3% shooting overall and 31.5% from Deep. The problem for the Mercury is that the Lynx are better defensively holding teams to 42.1% FG% overall with the best Defensive Net rating in the league. The big separator comes offensively for both teams. Minnesota has the best Offensive Net rating in the W, the Mercury are 7th. Phoenix is the 9th worst shooting team in the league, 6th in 3PT%. In comparison the Lynx are the best shooting team overall and 3PT% team. In the last two meetings the Lynx have held the Mercury to 13% 3-point shooting and 27%, with both games resulting in double-digit wins by the Lynx. We like at 10+ point win by the home team.

#479 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Lions +4.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Both these teams are 1-1 and have played almost identical strength of schedules. The Lions lost @ Green Bay (possibly the best team in the NFC) and beat Chicago handily. The Ravens lost @ Buffalo (possibly the best team in the AFC) and beat Cleveland handily. Baltimore has actually been outgained in both of their games this season including last week at home vs Cleveland. They won that game 41-17 but that was a very misleading final score as the Browns had 323 total yards to 292 for the Ravens and the YPP numbers were about dead even. The Ravens had a fumble return for a TD in that game and 3 of their 4 offensive TD’s were drives of 36 yards or less. The ground heavy Ravens rushed for only 45 yards in that game. Detroit is off a 52-21 win over Chicago, a game where they averaged nearly 9 YPP. The Lions rank in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense. The Ravens are a top 5 offense but their defense currently ranks 31st in the NFL ahead of only the NY Giants. The Lions have been great as a dog covering 10 of their last 12 in that role and head coach Dan Campbell is a money making 54-30-2 ATS in his career with Detroit. The Lions were +1.5 @ Green Bay in week 1 and now their getting +4.5 @ Baltimore? Lions can do enough offensively vs what looks like a poor Baltimore defense to keep this close and possibly pull the upset. Too many points.

#461 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3.5 vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 1 PM ET - A rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional round of the playoffs with Philly winning at home 28-22. The Rams actually outgained the Eagles 402 to 350 in that loss but had 2 key turnovers. Philly went onto destroy Washington and KC in their next 2 games to win the Super Bowl. Both teams are 2-0 on the season but we’ve been unimpressed with the former Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They were outgained in both of their wins in total yards and YPP. Last weekend they were -1.5 YPP vs the Chiefs and still came away with an unlikely 20-17 win. Their opening week they were at home vs the Cowboys and won by 6 in a game where they were outplayed. The offense has not looked good failing to get to 5 YPP in either game this season. Philly is getting outgained by 1 YPP (which is significant) after 2 games. QB Hurts isn’t a put a team on my shoulders and pass them to a win type signal caller and they rely heavily on the run (2nd in carries per game this year and 1st last year). Problem is they are only averaging 3.9 YPC (20th in the NFL). Now they face a Rams D that is allowing 4.3 YPP (3rd in the NFL) and held them to 350 yards last season when Philly was absolutely rolling on offense. LA put up 33 points and 440 yards (7.4 YPP) on a very solid Tennessee defense last week that held Denver to 4.5 YPP a week earlier. QB Stafford is clicking with 543 yards passing on 71% completions thus far. The Rams have covered 7 in a row on the road and they are an “under the radar” 13-4 SU since mid October of last year. Let’s take the points here.

#345 ASA PLAY ON UTSA -4.5 at Colorado State, Saturday at 9:30pm ET - Colorado State has been gouged by opponents rushing attacks this season allowing 173 Rushing Yards Per Game at 4.1 Yards Per Carry. These numbers come against FCS Northern Colorado (1-9 SU their last 10 games) and Washington. Washington wasn’t even good rushing the football in 2024, ranking in the 99th in total rushing a year ago. CSU ranked 84th last season in stopping the run, allowing an average of 164.3 YPG rushing. UTSA will have no problems running the ball against this defense with an offense that is averaging 6.0 Yards Per Play, runs for 217 YPG and 6.4 Yards Per Carry. The Roadrunners (one of the best mascots in college sports) ran for 203 yards against an SEC opponent in Texas A&M back in week 2. Colorado State was favored by 35-points last week against No. Colorado and barely won 21-17 after trailing 0-10 at halftime. UNCO is one of the worst rated teams in FCS. The Rams really don’t do anything well offensively ranking 108th in total YPG (318) and Yards Per Play at 4.8. UTSA has been a road favorite just 3 times since the start of 2024 with a 1-2 ATS record BUT they’ve won those games by an average of +8.7PPG. This line should be north of -7 so grab the value with the Roadrunners over the Rams.

#332 ASA PLAY ON Duke -2.5 over NC State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Duke is 1-2 on the season while NC State is a perfect 3-0. Yet this line opened Duke -2 and moved to -3 very quickly. That speaks volumes and we agree with the move. NC State is on the road for the 2nd straight week after topping what looks like a bad Wake Forest team last week. The Wolfpack got down 14-0 but took advantage of Wake turnovers and won the game 34-24. Because of the Deacs giveaways (2 to 0 for NCSU), NC State was able to run 76 offensive plays to just 59 for WF. This is the same Wake team that nearly lost at home in their opener to a bad Kennesaw State team 10-9. For reference, Kennesaw joined the FBS level last season and they have a 3-12 record since then with 1 of those wins coming vs an FCS team. NCSU’s other wins were by 7 at home vs ECU and by 3 at home vs Virginia. In those wins they outgained East Carolina by only 10 yards and they were outgained by Virginia by 100 yards. The Devils are 1-2 and their 2 losses were vs top 10 ranked Illinois and last week @ Tulane (we were on Duke). The Blue Devils outgained both of those teams in those 2 losses and we think they are undervalued. They are in an absolute must win spot at home with 4 of their next 5 games coming on the road. Their outstanding QB Mensah already has over 1,000 yards passing and 8 TD’s this season. He’ll be facing an NC State defense that ranks 129th in pass defense, 107th in total defense, and 107th in YPP allowed. After 3 games, Duke has better YPP numbers both offensively and defensively and they’ve beaten the Wolfpack each of the last 2 years by 10 and 16 points. Duke is desperate and we think they are the better overall team despite the current record. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -2.5 vs. Phoenix Mercury – 8pm ET - The Liberty have had an up-and-down season but still have a roster capable of winning it all this season. Injuries throughout the season certainly played a big role in their volatile play at times. They are now healthy, experienced in these situations and at home. New York is 17-5 SU at home this season after going 16-4 SU in the regular season last season, 6-1 in the playoffs. Phoenix has a solid roster led by Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper but New York exposed them in the first game of this series with a +17 rebound advantage. New York’s rebounding numbers this season are skewed because of their injury issues, let’s not forget this team was the best rebounding team in the league last season. New York is a wallet busting 5-16-1 AST in their last 22 games BUT in twelve of those ATS losses they were favored by 4 or more points. This is a great opportunity to buy low on the Liberty at home who had an average scoring differential of plus +7.0ppg at home in 2024, +7.7ppg in the playoffs last season and have a +9.6ppg average margin of victory at home this season.

#278 ASA PLAY ON Houston Texans -2.5 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 7 PM ET - We like this situation for the Texans. They are coming of a 14-9 road loss @ LA Rams while the Bucs are playing the 2nd of back to back road games after winning 23-20 in Atlanta last Sunday. In their win @ Atlanta, Tampa was outgained by nearly 100 yards and only averaged 4.6 YPP. Now they face what we consider one of the top few defenses in the NFL that allowed only 296 yards last week to the Rams. The Texans led 9-7 @ half in LA last week and came away with a 14-9 loss. Now they are in must win mode at home as teams that start 0-2 only make the playoff 11% of the time since 1990. The Texans weren’t impressive on offense last week @ LA but their defense was very good and we expect them to be one of the top units in the NFL this year. TB’s best offensive lineman, LT Wirfs, and top WR Godwin are most likely still out which won’t help vs this top notch defense. Dating back 15+ seasons, teams in week 2 that start the season 0-1 vs a team that is 1-0 cover almost 58% of the time. We’ve got a team that has made the playoffs in back to back seasons in that spot here and they are at home. With this number under a FG, we like Houston to get the cover.

#275 ASA NFL PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 8:20pm ET - If you haven’t figured it out yet, Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell is really good. The Vikings allowed QB Sam Darnold to walk this past summer knowing JJ McCarthy would be serviceable. Minnesota got a road win in the opener but that was over a Bears team that won just 5 games a year ago and still has some work to do. The Vikings had just 254 total yards in the game with 134 passing yards on 20 attempts. Minnesota’s defense was really good last season but looked mediocre in their opener against a Bears offense that was last in the league in yards per play a year ago at 4.5YPP and total yards per game at 283YPG. Atlanta should have won their opener against the Bucs as they completely outplayed Tampa Bay for most of the game. The Falcons put up 358 total yards with QB Penix Jr throwing for 289 passing yards. Atlanta held the explosive Bucs offense to 4.7YPP and 260 total yards but came up short on the scoreboard 20-23. In 2024 these two teams met on this field and the Vikings won 42-21 as a 6-point favorite. Atlanta turned the ball over 3 times to zero for the Vikings and then QB Darnold threw 5 TD’s. We don’t see the conservative Vikings offense scoring anywhere near as many points in this game and won’t be surprised by a Falcons outright win.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -7.5 vs. Indiana Fever, 3pm ET - The Dream have a team built that is capable of winning it all this season, the Fever are a MASH unit and scratched and clawed just to get into the playoffs. We expect Atlanta to carry over their season end momentum of 6 straight wins and beat this Fever team by double-digits. Atlanta has won AND covered 8 of their last ten games overall with a 5-1 record in their last six home games. In that home game stretch they have impressive wins over New York and Minnesota, and the lone loss came to the red hot Aces who have won 16 straight games to close the season. Indiana is really banged up right now with three starters out for the season including Caitlyn Clark. They managed a playoff spot but also benefitted from a soft schedule down the stretch which included games against the Sky and Mystics (who quit on the season) and a Lynx team that sat all of their starters. Atlanta had the 3rd best Net rating at home this season at +11.8, Indiana had a Net road rating of -1.8. The big advantage the Dream have is on the boards with the best rebound percentage in the league compared to the Fever who rank 9th. Kelsey Mitchell can only carry the Fever so far, they are outmanned in this one…lay the points with Atlanta.

#906 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-153) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies managed to steal a game yesterday as they had Gordon come up with an unusual strong start on the mound plus they scored 4 runs in the 4th inning (all with 2 outs!) in the 4-2 win.  Colorado is 0-5 the last 5 times when entering a game off a win and all 5 losses were by at least a 2-run margin.  We have no hesitation in laying the juice here for the run line at 1.5 runs as this is a complete pitching mismatch in addition to being an overall team mismatch!  Colorado entered this series on another 6-game losing streak and 17-55 on the road this season and 14-77 against teams with a winning record.  The Padres entered this series 45-27 at home and still have a shot at winning the NL West.  One surprising defeat to open up a series certainly does not change all the key dynamics here.  This includes a pitching mismatch here as the Padres Dylan Cease had a good start at Colorado in his most recent start and now gets them here at home where he is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA this season.  Also, Cease has held hitters to a .222 batting average since the All-star break while striking out 66 in 48 innings!  Bradley Blalock gets the call for the Rockies here simply because they don't have a lot of options.  Blalock is 1-5 with an 8.60 ERA in the minors this season and 1-4 with an 8.62 ERA in the majors this season!  Last month, before being sent down to the minors, he had 11 walks and just 6 strikeouts in his 3 outings.  Also, he faced the Padres one time this season and it was one time too many for him as he allowed 12 earned runs in under 4 innings on the mound!  You can see why we are expecting a dominating home win here. A blowout is likely here and we are laying 1.5 runs with the run line in this one!

#167 ASA PLAY ON Vanderbilt +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - We will be the first to admit that we are wrong and that was certainly the case last week when we back Virginia Tech over this same Vanderbilt team. It was a 2-part equation where we overvalued VT and undervalued Vandy. We will make a correction this week and will be on the Dores plus the points at South Carolina. We think South Carolina is a bit overvalued right now with a 2-0 record. Fact is, they’ve been outgained in both games including vs South Carolina State last week. The Gamecocks look like they rolled to an easy 38-10 win in that game vs an FCS team, however they only had 253 total yards and scored 21 points on 2 punt returns and 1 fumble return for a TD. A week earlier, South Carolina topped Virginia Tech 24-11 on a neutral site in Atlanta and they had an 80 yard punt return for TD in that one as well. Thus, in 2 games, the Gamecocks are averaging just 17 offensive PPG. We have a solid reference point in their game vs Va Tech, that’s because Vandy faced the Hokies on the road last week. The Commodores dominated that game 44-20 outgaining VT 490-248 and outrushing them 7.1 YPC to 3.7 YPC. Again, that was a true road game for Vandy. A week earlier Va Tech outgained South Carolina and the rushing stats were almost dead even (3.2 YPC to 3.1 YPC). The Commodores were embarrassed by South Carolina last year and they’ve been waiting for this one. Vandy head coach Lea after last year’s loss, “Obviously I’m frustrated ... coming up short in the game, frustrated also with the feeling that we didn’t represent ourselves the way that we wanted to ... and playing to an identity.” The Dores are in a spot they love to be in, that’s an undervalued underdog. Since the start of last season, they’ve covered 9 of 11 as an underdog winning 6 of those outright. They are also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 meetings with Southc Carolina with the Cocks only cover during that stretch coming last year. We give Vanderbilt a great shot at the upset here.

#461 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +6 over Washington, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This number opened -7.5 and despite 50/50 split on the actual bets, it has dropped a point and a half. That’s because, despite the 50/50 wagers, over 80% of the money at a few sharp books we track has come in on the Giants. NYG are the sharp side and we agree 100%. We think this is an overvalued vs undervalued situation to open the season. The Giants had major issues at QB last year with 4 different signal callers starting a game at some point last season. Russell Wilson has been very good in NYG camp and brings some stability to an offense that has some very talented playmakers. Wilson has been fantastic in his career as an underdog with a 44-27 ATS record and he should have some confidence here as he led the Steelers to a win over Washington last year. This rivalry has been very closely with 1 score games in 9 of the last 11 meetings. That includes last year when the Giants, who had only 3 wins, took the Commanders, who had 12 wins, to the wire in both match ups losing by a combined 8 points. Washington took the NFL by storm last year and we look for some regression in 2025. They had some breaks throughout the season facing 5 back up QB’s and they won 9 of their 13 one score games. Week 1 Divisional Dogs have been fantastic with a 31-16 ATS mark since 2016. On top of that, Washington has been a terrible favorite of 6 or more points going 6-20 ATS in that role dating back to the 2008 season. We think this one will be tight, as they usually are when these 2 meet, so we’ll grab the points.

ASA WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries +7.5 vs. Minnesota Lynx, 830pm ET - The Lynx are off a rare loss in their last game at Las Vegas and now face a Valkyries team that just locked up a spot in the playoffs. Minnesota is the #1 seed in the playoffs and are now more focused on being healthy than anything else. They have beaten this Golden State team twice but both games were relatively close with the Lynx winning by 11-points in each. Minnesota is just 2-3 SU in their last three road games while GST has won four in a row at home. The expansion Valkyries are 14-7 SU on their home court this season with an average point differential of +6.8ppg. Minnesota has been a solid road team with a 13-7 SU record and an average +/- of +6.7ppg, which isn’t enough to get a cover in this one. The Lynx are off a big showdown in Vegas with the Aces and have a marquee matchup with the Fever next so don’t be surprised if they overlook this GST team they’ve beaten twice already this season. Grab the points with the Valkyries.

#384 ASA PLAY ON Toledo -7 over Western Kentucky, Saturday at 7 PM ET- Toledo looks to bounce back at home after losing @ Kentucky 24-16 last Saturday. The Rockets went into SEC country and actually outgained the Wildcats in that loss. Now they are back at home in the Glass Bowl where they have a 68-18 SU record over their last 86 (since 2010). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 2-0 on the season but they’ve faced one of the worst FBS teams, Sam Houston State who had gone through a complete coaching overhaul, and North Alabama who had just a 3-9 record at the FCS level last season. Both those games were at home for WKY as well. This is a revenger for Toledo as well as they lost @ Western KY last year 26-21 as a 2.5 point favorite. The Rockets led 21-12 entering the 4th quarter and veteran QB Gleason, who is back this year, threw an interception at the goal line late which would have given them the win. The Hilltoppers have only 3 starters back from that team while Toledo has 11 starters returning. We have the Rockets rated 30th nationally in returning production while Western Kentucky ranks 121st in that category. We have Toledo rated as the best team in the MAC this year and this is a perfect spot to back them at home on Saturday.

ASA play on LA Chargers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 8:00PM ET - This is a very competitive series between a pair of longtime rivals in the AFC West and points are a premium. Last year we had two low scoring games between these two with the Chiefs winning both 19-17 and 17-10. Going back 10 games we see that 8 of the ten have been one score games with 5 of those decided by exactly 3-points. Kansas City finished the regular season 15-2 SU but they had an average margin of victory of only +3.4ppg. In fact, in comparison, the Chargers won 11 games in the regular season and they had an average point differential of +5.9ppg. Los Angeles allowed the fewest points per game during the regular season last year at 17.7ppg with the 9th best DVOA ranking defensively. They allowed the 7th fewest yards per completion but had a tough time stopping the run ranking 26th in yards per carry allowed. The Chargers were around league average in terms of yards per play, slightly above average in 3rd down conversion percentage. L.A. in Harbaugh’s second year should see significant improvement with Herbert under center and capable of trading points with KC and Mahomes. The Chiefs obviously still have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones and there is still gas in the tank, but their average point differential last season is a clear indicator they are not as dominate as they once were. We are going Division Dog in this one…grab the points at a FG or more with the Chargers.

ASA NFL play on Dallas Cowboys +8.5 at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20PM ET - The Eagles are drawing a ton of public attention, especially at several very public sports books, so we’ll bet contrarian here with the Cowboys. Philadelphia handled the Cowboys rather easily in both meetings last season winning 41-7 and 34-6. The Cowboys were without starting QB Dak Prescott in both and forced to play Cooper Rush and Trey Lance. In the second meeting last season, in Philly, the Eagles were favored by -7.5 points which is basically the same number here with Prescott. You won’t find a ton of support statistically for the Cowboys here if you are basing your betting strategy on last years numbers. We expect the Cowboys offense to have success here with WR’s CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and TE Ferguson facing an Eagles secondary that has some holes with the loss of CB Slay and S Gardner-Johnson. Philadelphia will also have a tough time pressuring Prescott without Milton Willams and Josh Sweat on the defensive front. The Cowboys defense took a hit with the Parsons trade but they did get Kenny Clark in return who can help fill the void. Both teams have been very good playing within the Division with the Eagles 10-3 SU, +9.0ppg, the Cowboys are 8-4 SU +8.7ppg. As soon as this line moved to a TD+ on the Eagles we were betting Dallas. Grab the points.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -7 vs. LA Sparks, 7:30 PM ET - It seems most experts are sleeping on the Dream, which has a roster capable of challenging the Lynx if the two teams make it to the Finals. Atlanta is tied with the Aces for the 2nd best record in the W at 26-14. They are 13-6 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.4ppg. The Sparks have a decent overall road record of 11-8 SU with an average MOV of -0.8ppg. In terms of Net rating the Dream are +8.0, the 2nd highest number in the league, the Sparks have a Net rating of -2.6 which ranks 9th. The two teams are relatively even statistically offensively, but the Dream hold a massive advantage defensively with the 2nd best defensive Net rating compared to the Sparks 10th DNR. Los Angeles is coming off a big come-from-behind win at Seattle on Monday and will be playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta has won two straight games after an ugly home loss to the Aces. We are getting great value in this line as the Dream were recently favored by this exact same number at home against a much better Liberty team and they won that game by 16-points. This sets up for a blowout win by the home team.

ASAwins WNBA play on NY Liberty -6 at Golden State Valkyries, 10PM ET - Reports indicate Liberty All-Star guard Sabrina Ionescu should be back in the lineup tonight against the Valkyries. New York has not played to their usual standards in the past month (mainly without Stewart) but now are healthy and should ramp up for the playoffs. Golden State has won 3 straight games but they’ve come against a banged-up Fever team, the Mystics and Wings so we’re not overly impressed with that 3-0 stretch. In fact, prior to that winning streak they had lost 3 in a row to teams more like Liberty’s caliber. GST lost by 16 at home to the Dream, lost by 7 at home versus the Mercury and they lost by 9-points at Phoenix. These two teams haven’t met since May/June and the Liberty have won all 3 meetings. New York is a championship level team and is much better offensively than the Valkyries. We like New York to bounce back after a humiliating loss in Phoenix and fighting for home court advantage in the looming playoffs.

ASAwins WNBA play on the LA Sparks +8.5 at Seattle Storm, 10PM ET - We were on and lost with the Sparks as a big favorite last night but now we catch them getting a big number from the Storm. We don’t mind the scheduling situation here as the Sparks played last night, but have been at home for a stretch and it’s a short travel. Seattle isn’t in the ideal situation here either as this will be their 4th game in seven days, 5th in nine days. The Storm have been a bet against team as a big favorite as they sport a 4-9 ATS record when laying 7 or more points this season. Seattle is 9-10 SU on their home court with an average +/- of +1.6ppg. The Sparks are 10-8 SU away from home with an average point differential of -1.2ppg. This has been a tight series with 5 of the last six games being decided by 8-points or less. Take the dog here.

ASA WNBA play on LA Sparks-7.5 vs. Washington Mystics, 8PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Sparks here as they have been off since the 29th and playing their 4th straight home game. Washington on the other hand, played at New York Thursday, at Golden State last night and now face the Sparks without rest. Washington has played two games this season without rest and they lost both, one badly by 16-points. The Mystics haven’t been a great road team this season to begin with as they stand 6-13 SU away from home with a negative average point differential of minus -4.8ppg. Los Angeles has lost two straight home games but they came at the hands of Indiana and Phoenix. Washington won the most recent meeting between these two teams, but the first two clashes resulted in 7 and 19-point wins by the Sparks. L.A. is healthy and rested and can win this game by double-digits against a road weary Mystics team.

#203 ASA PLAY ON Northwestern +5.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We think Northwestern, coming off a disappointing 4-8 season, will surprise some people this year. They have a very solid, veteran defense and their QB Stone (transfer from SMU) gives them potentially their best player at that key position in a while. Head coach Braun has raved about his defense’s experience and depth and we expect to be very good. Stone is a 5th year senior who threw for 3,200 yards and 28 TD’s two years ago @ SMU before losing his starting job to Jennings last year. He’s hungry after last year’s situation and he has an impressive 13-3 career record as a starter. Tulane is coming off a 9-3 regular season, however they were rolled in the AAC Championship game (35-14 loss vs Army) and in their bowl game (33-8 loss vs Florida). They only have 2 starters back on offense and their biggest loss was at QB when freshman phenom Mensah transferred to Duke. Nobody in the Tulane camp has separated themselves at that key position and a starter has not been named which is concerning. BYU transfer Retzlaff might be a perfect fit later in the season but he just got on campus in late July and is still learning the ropes. In the meantime, it might be Sullivan who has been a backup / part time starter in his career which included a stint @ Northwestern. The Green Wave simply don’t have a lot of experience back from last year’s team and we think they are overvalued due to last year’s run. They rolled over a number of poor opponents last year and the only 2 teams that beat that had a winning record in the regular season were Navy and Louisiana. The Cats have been great as a short underdog racking up an 18-5 ATS record as a puppy of less than a TD (dates back to 2014). This one stays close and NW should have a shot at the upset.

#158 ASA PLAY ON San Jose State -13.5 over Central Michigan, Friday at 10:30 PM ET - Long travel for CMU and they are breaking in entirely new systems on both sides of the ball. New HC Drinkall was Army’s offensive line coach last year and this is his first FBS head coaching gig. Despite Drinkall coming over from run heavy Army, the Chips will mainly run no huddle, shotgun or pistol look. We’re not sure their personnel fit this change and it will take some time to get this offense running smoothly. QB Labas played in 6 games last year and wasn’t great completing 58% of his passes with 7 TD’s and 7 picks. We should have a solid QB edge here with SJSU’s Eget who ended last season and college football’s 18th most efficient QB. The Spartans are the more stable program right now with HC Niumatalolo (formerly at Navy) entering his 2nd season after leading them to a bowl win last year. Both the OC and DC are back as well. They were 5-2 at home last season with their only losses coming at the hands of Boise State and UNLV, the 2 top teams in the MWC who met in the Conference Championship game. They scored 30+ points in 4 of their home games and we look for their offense to be very solid again this season. CMU has lost 9 straight road games and 12 of their last 13. They lost most of their key offensive weapons and with a new system in place, we’re not sure they can keep up in this game. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on: Seattle Storm +9 at Minnesota Lynx - 8PM ET - The Seattle Storm are coming off an embarrassing 20-point loss to the Indiana Fever, which should fuel their motivation to rebound against the Minnesota Lynx. The Storm have been favored in 18 of their last 20 games, making this +9.5-point spread seem inflated. For context, they were just +1.5 at Atlanta and +1 at Las Vegas, a clear indication the oddsmakers may be overreacting to their recent loss, or Minnesota’s home court advantage. This is the fourth meeting between these teams this season. The Storm won one game, while the Lynx took the other two by a combined nine points. With Seattle’s talent and pride on the line, they’re likely to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Aces, 7:30 PM ET - Atlanta enters with momentum posting an 8-2 SU record over their last 10 games. The Aces however have won 11-straight. Despite a 10-0 record in the last ten games for the Aces, the Dream have the superior net rating of +14.1 compared to Las Vegas’ +11.2 in that 10-game set. In their most recent meeting in Las Vegas, the Aces edged out a 2-point victory, but Atlanta struggled, shooting only 40% from the field and 28% from three. At home, the Dream shoot significantly better, averaging 44.4% from the field and 31.7% from three-point range. With two extra days of rest compared to the Aces, who are playing their third consecutive road game, Atlanta is well-positioned for a solid home win and cover. Atlanta is 12-5 SU in their own building with an average +/- of +8.5PPG. Lay it!

ASA WNBA play on Phoenix Mercury -4 at LA Sparks – 10PM ET - These two teams are close offensively with the Sparks having the 3rd best Offensive net rating at 106.3, the Mercury have an ONR of 103.3. Defensively it’s not close as the Mercury have the 4th best Defensive Net rating in the W at 99.7 and the Sparks rank 11th in DNR at 109. L.A. has the 12th worst FG% defense in the league and 11th worst 3PT% defense. Nobody gives up more points per game than the Sparks. Phoenix has the 4th best FG% defense allowing just 42.3% by opponents, they are better defending the 3PT line ranking 3rd in the league. Phoenix has won both meetings this season which is a clear indication the Sparks don’t match up. Both teams are 6-3 SU in their last nine games but the Mercury have faced a tougher schedule. Don’t be intimidated by laying the points on the road with Phoenix as they are 10-8 SU away from home. The Sparks have a 7-10 SU home record and a negative point differential in those games by an average of -3.1PPG. Lay it here with the better all around team.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - The Nationals lost 3-2 yesterday to the Phillies courtesy of a solo homer in the top of the 9th (when the game was 3-1) and the 1-run bomb prevented what would have been the 15th straight time that a Washington loss was by a margin of at least 2 runs.  The point is that we have no hesitation in laying the run line here as the Yankees were already at home and got the much-needed 7-2 win over the Red Sox here in the Bronx last night.  So the Yankees can build off the momentum of that victory and we take advantage of a Nats team that has had a very rough time against good teams this season.  In fact, Washington is 26-45 against teams that currently have a winning record on the season.  The Yankees are 68-49 this season in games not played on artificial turf and they are happy to be staying home for another series here.  We really like the way rookie Cam Schlittler is throwing for the Yankees right now as he has allowed only 1 earned run on a total of just 3 hits while striking out 14 in his last two starts and those outings saw him total just under 12 innings!  The Nationals Brad Lord, on the other hand, has allowed 14 hits in about 11 innings of work over his last two starts and he just allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets.  The Yankees have won 8 of 12 and scored an average of 8 runs in those 8 victories.  That being said, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is projecting another home blowout here!  We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay small juice with the Yankees here.  Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yankees Monday!

#127 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -2 over Tampa Bay Bucs, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Buffalo last week and they were embarrassed at Chicago to the tune of 38-0.  They decided on game day they would sit all of their starters which was a surprise to us.  The Bears played their starters and buried Buffalo.  The Bills head coach McDermott was obviously not happy after the performance.  “That wasn’t up to our standard, what we expect,” McDermott said. “We have a lot of work to do. It wasn’t up to our standard, that's very clear. It doesn't matter who's out there — ones, twos, threes, fours, whoever it is — we expect them to perform and we expect our level of performance to be much better than that.”  We expect a much better performance as they look for at least 1 win in the preseason for some momentum (Buffalo is 0-2).  Tampa is on the opposite end with a 2-0 preseason record.  QB Mayfield is banged up and he will most likely sit again leaving the QB duties up to Bazelak, newly signed Bridgewater, and Trask.  Last week the Bucs topped Pittsburgh 17-14 but they were outplayed drastically in the stats.  The Steelers average 5.4 YPP to just 3.8 for TB and on the ground the disparity was even more pronounced at 5.0 YPC (for Steelers) and just 1.7 YPC for the Bucs.  We expect the Bills to play with much more urgency this week after their embarrassing effort last week while Tampa, with 2 wins already, will be looking to just get to the regular season.  Lay the small number with Buffalo.

#310 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -13 over Fresno State, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Fresno is going through a massive change with a brand new coach staff on both sides of the ball. Their new head coach Entz was LB coach at USC last year and head coach at North Dakota State prior to that. His new offensive coordinator came from South Dakota he threw the ball only 39% of the time and played at a very slow pace. Fresno was the opposite last year throwing 56% of the time and playing much faster. It’s going to take some time to adapt. We don’t love the Bulldogs QB Warner who transferred in from Rice and simply wasn’t very good (17 TD’s and 13 interceptions) and he’s not mobile. They brought in a whopping 44 new transfers so the transition will take some time. Kansas is much more stable coming into this year with one of the better head coaches in the country in our opinion (Lance Leipold) and a stable staff. The Jayhawks went to bowl games in both of Leipold’s previous 2 seasons before falling to a 5-7 record last year. They were better than their record as they finished with a plus point differential for both the season and in conference play. They also outgained their opponents last season and finished in the top 12 nationally in YPP on offense led by QB Daniels who is back for another season. The Jayhawks were just 1-5 in one score games so if they would have had a few breaks in those losses they could have had a much better record. Their average margin of victory in their 5 wins was +20.4 points while 5 of their 7 losses came by 6 points or less. Also keep in mind they had no home field advantage last year as they played their home games at Arrowhead Stadium in KC while the renovations on their stadium were taking place. On Saturday they open that new stadium and we expect a very good atmosphere. We’ll take the more stable program at home on Saturday. Lay it.

ASA WNBA play on NY Liberty -14 vs. Chicago Sky, 7PM ET - The Sky have Angel Reese back but that just adds to their poor shooting and turnovers so it’s not really a plus. Chicago is 3-13 SU on the road this season getting beat by an average of 10PPG. The Sky are a bottom tier team defensively, rank 11th in road team FG% at 41.1% and 9th in 3PT% away from home. They face one of the best teams in the Liberty at home, who win by an average of 10+PPG, shoot 45.7% at home (3rd) and 37.8% at home, best in the W. Oh wait, the Sky will also be facing the 2nd best FG% defense in the league at home and 1st overall 3PT% D. The last time these teams met on this floor the Liberty won by 19-points. In Chicago earlier in the season they won by 25. We like the Liberty to win again in that 19-25-point range.

#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Seattle Mariners, Tuesday at 6:45 PM ET - The Phillies rolled to a 12-7 win yesterday and pounded out 21 hits!  When this team gets going at home like that they are tough to beat and the Phillies lineup is looking great after also getting a boost with the return of Alec Bohm.  They are loaded with plenty of deep ball threats throughout the lineup.  That is noteworthy here as the Mariners are expected to start Bryce Miller here as he returns from injury.  Though his 3 rehab starts in the minors were respectable overall, he did allow 4 homers in 9 and 1/3 innings over his last 2 rehab starts.  The Phillies were crushing the ball yesterday and love hitting here at home.  They pounded 4 homers yesterday.  Miller is 2-5 with a 5.73 ERA this season at the MLB level and this will be a tough first start in his return from injury.  The Phillies have lefty Christopher Sanchez getting the start here and he is having a fantastic season.  Sanchez has been particularly strong at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his 10 starts this year!  This is no fluke either as not only is he 11-4 overall this season, Sanchez also dominated at home last season too as he went 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 17 starts here.  He is facing a Seattle team that has now lost 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 and each of the last 4 losses by a multi-run margin!  13 of the last 15 Phillies wins - including 5 in a row - have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.  We are getting some excellent value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a plus money return with Philadelphia here.  Lay the 1.5 runs with the Phillies Tuesday!

Spanish La Liga #201838 ASA PLAY ON Real Madrid Goal Line -1.5 Goals (-140) over Osasuna, Tuesday at 3 ET - Osasuna is a large underdog here for a reason. Real Madrid is again one of the best clubs in the league while Osasuna not only finished mid-table last season, the visitors also had some key departures in the off-season. Not only that, Osasuna is on the road here and facing a Real Madrid club whose last competitive match was a 4-0 loss to PSG in the FIFA Club World Cup. In other words, Real Madrid is sure to be focused here for their season opener and they have won the last two meetings here each by an identical score of 4-0. We look for another multi-goal victory for the home side (with a huge talent advantage) as they roll big Tuesday on their home pitch. We will lay 1.5 goals with the home team here.

#429 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills +2.5 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 8 PM ET - The Bills are off a 34-25 loss last week vs the NY Giants but they played much better than the result. The Buffalo offense put up over 7.0 YPP and outgained the Giants by nearly 2.0 YPP in that loss. They put up those offensive numbers with QB Allen and RB Cook out of the line up but we expect both to play some this week. When Allen exits, we like Buffalo’s QB rotation with Trubisky, White, and Buechele. Trubisky & White have plenty of NFL experience combining to throw for over 14,000 yards and 83 TD’s. Head coach Sean McDermott has shown he does take the preseason seriously (15-10 ATS record) and he’s done well as an NFLX dog with a 4-2 ATS record in that spot since the start of the 2021 season. His teams are also 3-0 SU in the preseason when coming off a loss during that time frame. The Bears will play QB Caleb Williams in this one, however he’s been struggling to pick up on new head coach Ben Johnson’s offense in camp. When Williams takes a seat, the Chicago QB room will be without veteran Case Keenum who is out here with an injury after throwing for 2 TD’s in last week 24-24 tie vs Miami. These 2 teams have had combined practices this week and Chicago’s offensive line has had big time problems, especially at LT, with Buffalo’s defensive front. In that tie, the Bears offense averaged only 4.5 YPP. Buffalo is the deeper team which should give us an edge in the 2nd half. They’ve also had an extra day off, so to speak, after playing last Saturday while Chicago played on Sunday. We’ll take the better team, off a loss, getting points.

ASA WNBA play on Indiana Fever -6.5 at Connecticut Sun, 1pm ET - The Fever have lost two straight games and look to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the WNBA. Connecticut has an average loss margin of -4.2PPG on the season at home with a 5-11 SU record on their own court. The Sun have the lowest or worst Net rating in the WNBA at -14.9. Indiana has a positive Net rating of +3.7 and have a positive road record of 9-8 SU. Connecticut has the worst FG% defense in the league at 46.4% allowed and the 10th worst 3PT% D allowing 34.5%. The Fever should take advantage of that defense with their 4th best FG% rating at 45.2% and their 5th best 3PT% at 34.2%. The Sun have been double digit home dogs to New York and Seattle in recent weeks so laying -6.5-points here is not out of line. Indiana has beaten this team by 8 and 17-points this season and should get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA NFLx play on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 -125 vs Cleveland Browns, 1PM ET - The Eagles hold a decisive advantage over the Browns in one key area heading into Saturday and that’s the QB position. Cleveland’s quarterback situation is a disaster, making matters worse is rookie QB Sanders (played well last week) has an oblique injury and may not play. In fact, there is talk Tyler Huntley may play the entire game against Philly. The Eagles’ offense is in the capable hands of QB Tanner McKee. McKee was an efficient 20/25 for 252 yards, 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s last week against the Bengals. Thompson-Robinson relieved McKee and was 5/8 for 56-yards. Philadelphia’s defensive front, bolstered by rookies Carter and Smith, will likely disrupt Huntley and limit the Browns’ run-heavy approach. The Eagles averaged 6.08 yards per play last week and should have success again this week against a Browns D that allowed 5.6YPPL a year ago (23rd most). Philadelphia’s depth will come through in this one and lead the Eagles to a TD+ win.

ASAwins WNBA play on Golden State Valkyries -6.5 at Chicago Sky, 7:30pm ET - The Sky have dropped 11 of their last twelve games and are in a free fall late in the season. Golden State has been one of the biggest surprises this season and currently sit 17-15 on the year. Chicago is without Angel Reese and her 30% shooting from 5-feet and in this season which is maybe a plus. The Valkyries have won 3 straight games and 6 of their last eight games overall. They are 4-1 SU in their last five road games so playing away from home hasn’t been an issue. In their most recent win over the Mystics they were up 25-points before coasting to a 88-83 win in Washington. In each team's last eight games the Valks have a positive Net rating of +3.3 while the Sky are a negative -14.7. The Chicago offense is going to have a hard time scoring against this GST defense that is 1st in FG% defense and 5th in 3PT% D. The Sky typically enjoy a rebounding advantage over most teams but won’t have that edge in this one. Lay the points with Golden State.

ASAwins NFLx play on Atlanta Falcons +4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans, Friday 7PM ET - We like the Falcons to cover the +5.5 spread against the Tennessee Titans in their preseason Week 2 matchup, for a few key reasons. The Falcons’ defense looked good in their opener against the Lions, with rookie edge James Pearce Jr. and veteran Arnold Ebiketie generating pressure on Detroit’s QB’s, which was sorely lacking a year ago. This pass rush could exploit the Titans’ offensive line, and a rookie QB, which struggled in their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers. Tennessee managed just 201 total yards of offense against the Bucs and currently have depth concerns at running back so expect a heavy dose of rookies (Mullings and Chestnut) in the backfield. Atlanta’s third-string QB Easton Stick outshined Tennessee’s Cam Ward in their respective debuts, completing 15 of 18 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Stick’s efficiency, and the ability of the Falcons to convert 3rd downs 4/11, should help sustain drives against a Titans secondary that was exposed in joint practices this week and their first game. Atlanta has some injury concerns and has hinted they may play QB Cousins for a series or two before Stick takes over for the rest of the game. Either way, this number is too high according to our metrics and anything over a field goal is a buy.

#952 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +110 over Pittsburgh Pirates, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Brewers roll continues as they crushed Pittsburgh 14-0 yesterday following Monday's 7-1 win as well! The Brewers have won 11 straight games and they are 41-20 at home this season!  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has lost 4 straight games and also has lost 20 of the last 33 games.  On the road this season the Pirates are 17-41.  Mitch Keller starts for Pittsburgh here and, despite a 5-10 record, has some good long-term numbers.  However, he looks to be fading here late in the season.  Keller's last 3 starts have seen him allow nearly 2 baserunners per inning!  He has walked 7 and given up 18 hits for 25 baserunners in 12 and 2/3 innings!  Another early exit could loom for him here and that means the Pirates bullpen - charged with 18 earned runs in the last 3 games - could again be an issue here.  Even if Keller has a good start here, the Brewers Brandon Woodruff has a good shot at out-pitching him by a solid margin!  Woodruff is a fantastic 22-5 the last 3 seasons combined including 4-0 this season with a 2.29 ERA!  The Brewers have also been the much better hitting team this season plus are #1 in the NL for boh batting average (.300) and slugging percentage (.493) the last 30 days!  The Pirates are the lowest scoring team in MLB and also have a paltry .324 slugging percentage in road games this season which is dead last in the majors!  Milwaukee has just 4 losses since early July as they are on a 26-4 run!  Conversely, the Pirates have 4 losses within just the past 4 days as they have lost 4 straight games and are on a  4-8 run!  6 of the last 7 Pittsburgh losses by a multi-run margin!  12 of the last 16 Brewers wins by 2+ runs!  We are utilizing the run line on the home favorite in this one for a strong play and we expect the Brewers to extend their current win streak to 12 IN A ROW with a home win by a multi-run margin again Wednesday! 

ASA WBA play on Indiana Fever -7 vs. Dallas Wings, 7:30pm ET - These teams recently met in Dallas (Aug 1st) which resulted in the Fever winning by 10-points as a -3.5-point favorite. Now Indiana is laying just a few more points at home where they 10-6 SU on the season with an average +/- of +8.8PPG. Dallas has really struggled on the road this season with a 3-12 SU record and a negative or minus -4.6PPG differential. The Wings are one of the worst offensive and defensive Net rating teams in the league ranking 9th offensively and 10th defensively. Indiana is better in both categories ranking 5th in ONR and 8th in DNR. Indiana has won 6 of eight games and are at home with 1 extra day of rest going into this game. Dallas has lost 5 in a row and 7 of their last eight games and this will be their 3rd game in five days. The Wings have lost 5 of their last six road games with all five of those losses coming by 7 or more points. The Fever have beaten this Wings team three times this season and clearly have a match up advantage. Lay it with Indiana.

ASAwins WNBA play on Atlanta Dream +4.5 at Phoenix Mercury, 7pm ET - We were on the wrong side of this matchup in the last meeting when Atlanta drubbed the Mercury by 23-points. Atlanta is 2-0 against Phoenix this season with both wins coming by double digits. Atlanta clearly has a matchup advantage that Phoenix struggles with. The Dream have won 4 straight games and 6 of their last seven. In that stretch of games they have two wins over this Phoenix team and an impressive road win in Minnesota. Phoenix has won 3 straight but we’re not as impressed with their streak as two of the wins came against Chicago and Connecticut, two of the worst teams in the W. The other win came against Indiana, but he Fever were in a tough scheduling situation playing their 4th straight road game. The big advantage the Dream have is their rebounding edge and 2nd chance opportunities. Grab the points with the Dream.

ASAwins WNBA play on Las Vegas Aces Pick'em vs. Seattle Storm, 10pm ET - We have two teams currently heading in opposite directions with the Storm on a 3-game losing streak while the Aces have won 2 straight and 4 of their last five. In fact, Seattle made a big trade for Brittney Sykes in an effort to resurrect the season. Granted Sykes is an All-Star player and very good, but it will take time for her and her teammates to acclimate themselves to each other’s style of play. Las Vegas has had their ups-and-downs this season but they seem to have things figured out with a 7-3 streak in their last ten games. This game has big playoff implications as both teams sit 16-14 overall and tied for 3rd in the Western Conference. Seattle has a 2-1 series advantage which makes this game critical for the Aces. Las Vegas has won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Storm and we like them to get #8 tonight. 

ASAwins CFL Edmonton Elks +2 vs. Montreal Alouettes (August 8, 2025) 7:30pm ET - Despite their 1-6 record, the Elks are getting less than a field goal on the road in Montreal? That doesn’t add up. Edmonton is coming off a near upset of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats last week in a close 28-24 loss. With Cody Fajardo at quarterback, Edmonton’s offense has been revitalized, as he completed 79.3% of his passes for 603 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception over his last two starts. This is particularly relevant as Fajardo faces his former team, Montreal, in a revenge game, adding extra motivation. Edmonton has covered the spread in two straight visits to Montreal and has a money-making 8-4 ATS record in their last 12 road games. QB Fajardo’s 79.3% completion rate and 8.6 yards per attempt in recent games should exploit Montreal’s secondary, which ranks third in passing yards allowed (251.2 per game) but is depleted by injuries. The Alouettes are missing key players, including starting QB Davis Alexander and top receivers Austin Mack and Tyson Philpot, weakening their offense. Backup QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson struggled last week, managing only 126 passing yards with an interception in a 34-6 loss to Saskatchewan. Montreal is 2-2 SU at home this season but one of those wins was by just 1-point. Edmonton’s last three losses have been by a combined 11 points and is an indicator this team is better than their 1-6 SU record this season. The Elks should keep this game within a field goal, if not pull off the upset.