#679/680 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Houston vs Duke, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - These 2 met in the Sweet 16 last season and it was a 56 possession grinder with Duke coming out on top 54-51.  While we don’t expect the scoring to be that low in this one, we still anticipate a low possession game with 2 very high level defenses that will lead to an Under in this one.  Houston ranks as the #1 defense in the nation (efficiency) and they allow only 58 PPG which is also #1 nationally.  They have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 60 points or less including Purdue (7th nationally in offensive efficiency) and Tennessee (17th).  The Big 12 had 5 teams ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and Houston played 9 games vs those opponents.  Only 1 topped 65 points in those 9 games and those teams averaged 61 PPG vs Houston.  We don’t expect them to hold Duke, the #1 offense in efficiency, to those numbers but we also don’t look for the Devils to go wild offensively in this one.  The Blue Devils have fantastic offensive numbers but they’ve played a very weak schedule of defensive teams this season which lends to those stats.  They haven’t faced a team in the NCAA tourney that is ranked in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and the only ACC team that ranks in the top 20 in that metric was Clemson (17th) who held the Devils to 71 points.  What doesn’t get talked about enough is how good Duke is defensively.  They rank 4th in the country in efficiency and 7th in PPG allowed (62 PPG).  They have held 3 of their 4 tourney opponents to 66 points or fewer including limiting the #1 scoring team in the country, Alabama, to only 65 points in their most recent game.  That’s the same Bama team that was averaging 91 PPG on the season and had scored 90, 80, and 113 points in their first 3 NCAA games before hitting a wall vs this Duke defense.  The Blue Devils have played 38 games this season and have allowed more than 70 points only 7 times.  As we stated, we expect a low possession game as Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and Duke is a slower paced team this season as well (268th).  Both defenses make opponents work incredibly hard for shots with Houston’s opponents getting a shot off every 18.7 seconds (12th longest in the country) and Duke’s opponents every 19 seconds (5th longest).  A tough shooting venue in the Alamo Dome and we like the Under here.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Under 160 Points – Auburn vs Florida, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These 2 met once this year in early February and that total was set at 156. The game was played @ Auburn and the Gators pulled off the 90-81 win pushing it Over the total. There were 74 possessions in that game but we expect a slower paced game here as most teams reign it in a bit this late in the season. Every possession is huge. These 2 have combined to average 69 possessions per game in their 8 NCAA tourney game which is below their average for the season. We don’t think this rematch gets anywhere near the 171 posted in the first game. This game is being played at the Alamo Dome which is a huge arena meant for football, not basketball. It’s a tough shooting venue which has hosted 4 other Final 4’s and the average total points scored here in those previous games was 146. Of the 12 games played in the Final 4 and National Championship game at the Alamo Dome, only 2 reached 160+ total points. These 2 defenses are elite. They both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Auburn’s offense has posted PPP numbers (offensive efficiency) below their season average for 8 consecutive games. Defensively they have not allowed more than 70 points in this tourney. The Gators have been held under their PPP season average on offense in 4 of their last 5 games but they’ve held each of their opponents in this tourney below their offensive efficiency average. Once you hit the Final 4, it’s really tough for both teams to put up big offensive numbers in a game. In fact, over the last 15 seasons, there have been 45 Final 4 & National Championship games and only FOUR have reached 160+ total points. Both teams being from the SEC, they know each other very well and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points which keeps this Under the total.

#671/672 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points Nebraska vs Georgetown, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Crown Classic had a high scoring first day with all 4 games going Over the total but evened out yesterday with a 2-2 mark to the Over. Because of day 1, the totals were getting steamed up on Tuesday and this one is set too high. Both Nebraska and Georgetown went Over in their match ups vs Arizona State and Washington State respectively. The Huskers were on pace to go way Under the total vs a fast paced ASU team when the 2 went crazy in the final minutes. They scored 32 points in the final 3 minutes of the game and with just 1:20 remaining they still only had 146 total points (ended with 164). The Huskers shot 51% for the game which is well above their season average of 45%. We don’t expect a duplicate performance vs a Hoya defense that allows opponents to shoot 42% and gives up just 69 PPG on the season. On the other end of the court, we think Georgetown will struggle offensively vs a solid Nebraska defense (42nd nationally in defensive efficiency). The Hoyas will most likely be without their top 3 scorers again in this game and playing with only 5 scholarship players. They only had 1 starter available on Monday, Malik Mack, who averaged 11 PPG on the season and he went crazy scoring 37 of their points (45% of their total points) and made 8 of 12 from deep. Mack shot 31.9% from 3 on the season and that performance from Monday won’t be duplicated here. Neither team shoots the 3 very well (240th and 267th nationally) and both teams do a good job of not sending opponents to the FT line (both top 75 in opponent FT attempts per game). Nebraska games averaged 148 total points this season while Georgetown games averaged 141. We’re getting some solid value here because of their opening round games and the way this tourney has been trending the first 8 games. Let’s take this one Under the total.

#645/646 ASA PLAY ON Under 148.5 Points – Michigan State vs Auburn, Sunday at 5 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine all season with a 25-11 mark. We were on the Under in the MSU vs Ole Miss game on Friday which cashed and we’re jumping back on here. Both of these defenses are elite ranking 4th (MSU) and 8th (Auburn) nationally in defensive efficiency. They both defend the arc at a top 10 rate as well (MSU 2nd and Auburn 7th). Sparty is a poor 3 point shooting team (318th) and the simply don’t attempt many triples (356th in percentage of points from deep). The Tigers are better shooting from 3 but not elite (55th in the country) and MSU limits opponents to around 6 made 3’s per game. We don’t expect a ton of points from deep in this game. Both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to adjusted tempo (134th and 179th) but they’ve played at a slower pace during the tourney which is to be expected. Especially MSU who tallied only 64 possessions on Friday vs Ole Miss (who has a similar tempo to Auburn) and 65 possessions vs New Mexico who is one of the fastest paced teams in the country (7th). Sparty has allowed 62, 63, and 70 points in their 3 games in the NCAA tourney and the 70 game vs Ole Miss who made a near half court heave as time expired or they would have been at 67. Auburn has allowed just 63, 70, and 65 points in their 3 games. Michigan State’s offense has been held under their season efficiency average in 5 of their last 6 games while Auburn has been held under their offensive efficiency average in 7 straight games. Now with each offense facing a top 10 defense, we don’t think they get anywhere near their average efficiency numbers in this one. Pressure packed game to get to the Final 4 where the defenses are the best units on the court. Under is the call.

#635/636 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 points – Michigan State vs Mississippi, Friday at 7 PM ET - We have 2 very defensive minded coaches in this game with Izzo and Beard. Both defenses rank in the top 21 in efficiency (MSU 5th and Ole Miss 21st). MSU’s defense has been top 10 all season long. They allow just 67 PPG on the season and held Bryant to 62 points and New Mexico to 63 in their 2 tourney games. Both of those teams like to play very fast (both top 10 tempo) and have good offensive efficiency numbers and Sparty shut them down to 0.87 and 0.97 PPP. The Spartan have played 35 games this season and only 11 of those opponents topped 70 points. In their 2 tourney games, Ole Miss held a red hot UNC, who had scored at least 80 points in 7 of their previous 12 games, to just 64 points. Over the weekend the Rebs had a high scoring game vs Iowa State (91-78 final) but Ole Miss had an outlier offensive performance hitting 58% of their shots AND 58% of their 3 pointers. Even with that, the game was at 130 total points with 5:00 minutes remaining and with ISU down by double digits, they pushed the pace and the 2 teams scored 39 points from that point on. MSU shoots very few 3’s and when they do the hit only 31% (323rd nationally). On the other end, the Rebels are an OK 3 point shooting team (122nd nationally) however the Spartans are the #1 three point D in the country allowing 27.8%. Both offenses haven’t been overly efficient away from home this season with MSU averaging 1.04 PPP and Ole Miss 1.07. This game is being played at State Farm Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks, and an unfamiliar venue to both teams which could affect shooting. MSU has been an Under juggernaut all season with a 24-11 mark and we look for another one on Friday. Both defenses allow less than 0.96 PPP on the season they are the 2 best units on the floor. Play the Under here.

#877/878 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 137.5 points - Arkansas State vs North Texas, Sunday at 7 PM ET - We were on Arkansas State in their first round NIT match up with St Louis and picked up an easy win with the Red Wolves rolling up huge offensive numbers (103-78 Final). They shot 54% overall and 46% from deep in what was a very fast paced game with 75+ possessions. That won’t happen here. First of all, UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do with every game. Secondly, UNT’s defense is outstanding ranking 46th in efficiency, 27th in eFG% allowed, and 19th in 3 point FG% allowed. The Mean Green played a number of games vs high potent, fast paced offenses and for the most part they shut them down in low possession games. They held a high scoring Memphis team (80 PPG) that plays very fast (28th in tempo) to just 68 points on 1.05 PPP (just 65 possessions). They held UAB (81 PPG), who also plays very fast, to just 61 and 66 points in games of just 60 and 64 possessions. Arkansas St averages 79 PPG but they aren’t a great shooting team. They rank 294th in FG% and 288th in 3 point FG%. When they played slow paced, good defensive teams in the Sun Belt (App State and South Alabama) they totaled 116, 120, and 145 points (on only 65 possessions in that last game). UNT is back at home here where they beat Furman 75-64 in a game that had only 58 possessions. The Mean Green are an average shooting team (45%) but hit just under 55% in that game vs a Furman D that ranks 200th in efficiency. Now they face a top 100 D in Arkansas State. Both teams defend the arc at a high level (both top 20) so we don’t expect a ton of points from deep. UNT has allowed 70+ points since December and ASU’s defense allowed 70+ only 6 times in their 18 regular season conference games. This has the makings of a very low possession game where the defenses dominate. Under.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 150.5 Points - St Mary’s vs Alabama, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - This total is set too high. We think this gets to the mid 40’s at best and most likely lower. We understand why it’s set high with the Crimson Tide leading the nation in scoring at 91 PPG. We don’t see them getting anywhere close to that in this game. That’s because St Mary’s will slow the heck out of this game (4th slowest team in the country) and the Gaels are also a high level defensive team (7th in the country in D efficiency). It’s much easier to slow a fast team down rather than speed up a slow team. Nobody has been able to get STM going at a high pace. While they are facing the #1 scoring team in the nation on Sunday, the Gaels have already taken on the #2 scoring team (Gonzaga) 3 times. The Zags average 87 PPG on the season and play very fast. In their games vs St Mary’s, they averaged only 61 PPG and held the Zags under 60 points twice. None of those 3 match ups topped 63 possessions. In Friday’s game, STM faced Vandy who is a very high tempo team that ranks 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency and the final score was 59-56 on only 59 possessions. This team has zero chance to win this game in a shootout and they’ll make sure it doesn’t turn into that. On the other end, we’ve talked about Bama’s offense, but their defense is very sold ranking 34th in efficiency. They defend the arc very well (26th) as does St Mary’s (44th). Both teams limit with only 26.9% of STM’s opponents points coming from deep (335th) and 27.1% of Bama’s opponents points coming from 3 (329th). If this one plays out as we expect, we just don’t see how this gets to 150 points unless both teams shoot lights out. We’re on the Under.

#827/828 ASA PLAY ON Over 154.5 Points – BYU vs Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Two of the most efficient offenses in the country going at it in Denver in what we expect will be a high scoring game. BYU ranks 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and Wisconsin ranks 13th and they both average 80 PPG which puts them in the top 35 in the country. These 2 teams shooting the highest percentage of 3’s in the tourney (both around 48% of their shots are triples) and they make them at a high rate (37% and 35%). The weakness of both teams on defense is defending the arc with the Badgers ranking 183rd allowing 33% and BYU ranking 243rd giving up 35%. We think both teams will scoring in bunches from deep. This should be a fairly quick tempo as well with Wisconsin completely changing their philosophy and pushing the ball this season while BYU prefers the same. We shouldn’t have many empty possessions as the Badgers are among the best in the country at taking care of the ball (25th in turnovers per game) and while the Cougs do have a tendency to turn it over, Wisconsin doesn’t create many takeaways (327th). We should see plenty of freebies as well with the Badgers getting to the FT line a lot (30th in FT attempts per game) and they make them at over 83% (#1 in the nation). These two have a combined record of 40-29 to the Over this season and we see another shootout on Saturday.