#53/54 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-120) - Dallas at Ottawa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The starting goalies have been confirmed and barring unforeseen circumstances just prior to dropping the puck it should be Jake Oettinger and Linus Ullmark in this one. We like this match-up for goals. Oettinger has struggled recently with 10 goals allowed on 45 shots in his last two games. Ullmark, though considered the #1 goalie in Ottawa, has actually been getting outplayed by the back-up Leevi Merilainen. Ullmark did allow only 2 goals to the Flyers in his most recent start but he was very fortunate in that one as Philly had some bad puck luck in that one and should have had a lot more goals. Prior to that one, Ullmark allowed 16 goals over his last 4 starts for an average of 4 goals per start! Dallas is off a 2-1 home win versus Seattle but this was after 4 straight games, including both road games, totaled at least 7 goals. The Senators are off a 4-2 home win over Utah which was the 5th time in 7 games that an Ottawa home game reached at least the 6-goal mark! Both teams, and in particular the Stars, have been great on the power play this season. Both teams and in particular the Senators, have struggled badly on the penalty kill. Our computer math model is showing the highest probability as 7 goals in this one with 6 as the 2nd highest probability in simulations. Over is the play Tuesday in Ottawa

Under 6.5 Goals Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET - Fade the over in this lopsided matchup and back the Under 6.5 (-120 or better) with high confidence and a projected +7% edge. Carolina enters with the NHL’s stingiest defense (xGA/60 at 2.2, No. 1) and a top-5 penalty kill (85%) that has suffocated opponents all season, allowing just 2.69 goals per game. Buffalo’s road offense ranks bottom-10 (2.6 GF/G away) with poor shot quality and a regressing 9.0% shooting percentage, generating minimal high-danger looks against elite structures like Carolina’s.Goaltending seals it: Frederik Andersen/Pyotr Kochetkov the Hurricanes’ tandem sit top-10 in SV% (.915+), while Alex Lyon/Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen faces a barrage but benefits from Carolina’s low-event style. Ongoing injuries to key play-drivers (Slavin, Gostisbehere for CAR; Benson for BUF) further depress pace and transition chances.Our Poisson model spits out 5.5 expected goals (65% probability Under 6.5), crushing the implied ~58% after juice. Combined xG/60 clocks in at just 5.2—classic Carolina home trap game. Pound the Under; this one finishes 3-1 or 4-2 at the absolute ceiling.

ASA NHL play on: New York Islanders ML (-140) vs. Minnesota Wild, 7pm ET - With confirmed starters Jesper Wallstedt for Minnesota and David Rittich for the Islanders, this line is straight-up mispriced – the Islanders are a play at -140 (playable to -150). Minnesota just got worked 4-3 in Carolina Thursday night, with starting netminder Filip Gustavsson allowing 4 goals on 27 shots. That forces backup Jesper Wallstedt (1-0-2, 3.46 GAA, .863 SV% this season) into the second game of a B2B – where the Wild are 0-3 SU this year in that spot, getting outscored 8-13. Wallstedt has been shaky: negative GSAx in all three appearances, allowing 4+ high-danger goals per 60. Meanwhile, David Rittich is 3-0-0 at home with a sparkling 1.67 GAA and .938 SV% at UBS Arena this season – he's allowed exactly 2 goals in three of his four starts overall (the outlier was a blowout where he got no help). The Isles are: 4-1 L5 at home, 3.8 GF/GP in that stretch, and a perfect 3-0 when Rittich starts at home. Projected Score: Isles 4.1 – Wild 2.3. Implied Win Prob: 64% for NYI (-178 true line).

ASAwins NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS (-130) Minnesota @ Carolina, 7PM ET - For Thursday's Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes matchup, take the Under 6.5 (-130) with a +6% edge. Carolina’s league-leading xGA/60 (2.3) and elite 84% PK% smother Minnesota’s struggling road offense (2.6 GF/G), while Gustavsson’s .895 SV% faces heavy pressure against Andersen/Kochetkov’s .912+ tandem. Minnesota's offense relies on Kaprizov's shot volume (3.5 SOG/game), but their 43.3% xGF% craters on the road (opponents outshoot them 32-25 avg). Shooting efficiency: Wild's S% (8.2%) is unsustainable low (regresses +1-2%), while Carolina's 10.5% exploits transitions. The model projects 5.4 total goals, yielding a 68% under probability—well above the implied ~65% after vig. Key injuries to Slavin and Zuccarello further suppress scoring, Last year the two meetings between these two teams produced 3 and 4 total goals.

ASA play on: NY Islanders -155 vs. Boston Bruins, 7pm ET - The Bruins' three-game win streak hides a glaring issue: they're getting dominated on shots, outshot 103-66 across those contests—which is about to catch up with them. Meanwhile, the Islanders boast a solid 6-5-1 overall record and a strong 4-2-0 mark at home, where they're favored at -155 on the moneyline. New York's offense ranks 12th league-wide with 3.3 goals per game (40 total), and they've just notched back-to-back wins, including a gritty 3-2 comeback against Columbus where they outshot the Jackets 39-22 and controlled 68.1% of faceoffs. This rematch screams revenge for the Isles after Boston's 5-2 road win on Oct. 28 (outshot 35-22, including an empty-netter), fueled by two power-play tallies. Boston's road form is shaky at 1-4-0, and while they've won four of their last five, their momentum feels fragile against a motivated home side. Islanders: +1 shot attempts differential in recent games; 11.0% shooting efficiency (16th in NHL); averaging 3.5 goals/game over last 10. Bruins: 28th in defensive ranking; just 3-6 as +132 or longer underdogs; prone to late-game scoring but outshot in 70% of recent wins.

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6 Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, 10pm ET - Both teams come into tonight’s contest rested with their #1 goalies slated to start between the pipes. The Blackhawks will have Spencer Knight in goal, the Kraken have Joey Daccord on the card. Knight started the season red hot and has slipped slightly in recent outings but still has a .913 save percentage and 2.62 GAA on the season. Joey Daccord for the Kraken is 5-1-3 on the season with a 2.70GAA and .904 save percentage. These two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in GF per game with Chicago averaging 3.17, Seattle is scoring an average of 2.73 goals per game. Both teams struggle to get shot on goal ranking 30th and 32nd in total shots per game. Defensively, both are stout with the Kraken allowing the 10th fewest goals per game at 2.82, the Blackhawks allow just 2.83 GA/G. Both teams are also top 10 in save percentage and top 12 in xGA (expected goals against). Clearly defense is the theme tonight and we expect less than 6 total goals in this one.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6.5 GOALS Colorado at San Jose - 4pm ET - The Colorado Avalanche roll into San Jose on the second leg of a back-to-back (4-2 at Vegas yesterday) and also had a recent wild 8-4 demolition of New Jersey on Tuesday, where they lit the lamp eight times on 42 shots. That's a prime setup for a high-octane affair against the leaky Sharks, who rank dead last in the NHL by allowing 4.4 goals per game (48 total through 11 outings). San Jose's defense has been a revolving door all season, surrendering 4.36 goals per contest on average, and they've gone over 6.5 in eight of their 11 games—pushing totals to at least seven goals in each case. Their young guns like Macklin Celebrini (6G, 11A) and William Eklund (5G, 6A) can score in bunches, but the backend can't keep up, especially with Yaroslav Askarov struggling at a 4.69 GAA and .844 SV%. On the flip side, Colorado's offense is humming at 3.8 goals per game (league-best 45 total), led by Nathan MacKinnon's blistering 9G-9A pace and Cale Makar's 4G-13A wizardry from the blue line. The Avs have topped 6.5 goals in five of their 12 games already, including that 12-goal explosion against Jersey. But here's the wrinkle—and the value: Mackenzie Blackwood, a proven .913 SV% guy from last year, draws his first start of 2025-26 after offseason lower-body surgery and a 10-game absence. He looked sharp in limited backup reps last week, but rust is real; goalies often leak softies in debuts post-injury, especially on zero days' rest. Colorado's B2B hasn't slowed their attack yet (they're 7-1-4 overall), but fatigue could open the floodgates for San Jose's opportunistic forwards. Head-to-head? Colorado's owned San Jose with a 12-game win streak, but those romps have been goal fests: historically averaging 6.3+ combined goals in recent clashes. Multiple models project a 4-3 final (7 total), with the over juiced by the Avs' road warrior offense (33 even-strength goals) and Sharks' porous net (310 shots faced, 28th in NHL).

ASA NHL play Over 5.5 Goals (-130) in Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators - 7pm ET - Both teams are leaky at the back and aggressive up front, setting the stage for a goal-fest. The implied probability of 6+ combined goals sits around 57%, but the stats scream higher—expect at least 7 tallies in this one. Both squads are mired in defensive woes while packing heat offensively. Ottawa's been a rollercoaster (5-5-1), but their back end has been a sieve, allowing 4.0 goals against average (GAA)—the 3rd-most in the NHL. That's no fluke; they've surrendered 35 goals in 11 games, ranking 28th league-wide. Their goalies? A collective .841 save percentage this season, 31st—meaning pucks are finding twine consistently. Linus Ullmark's been shaky at 3.11 GAA and .870 SV% in eight starts, and backup Leevi Merilainen hasn’t been any better with an .830 SV%. The Flames (2-8-1) are hemorrhaging goals at a 3.55 GAA clip (8th-most vulnerable), with 39 goals against already in 11 games—27th in the league. Their netminders sit at a middling .883 save percentage (23rd), led by Dustin Wolf's 3.37 GAA and .886 SV% across nine starts. Ottawa ranks 7th in shots on goal league-wide, firing at will and converting at a clip that includes 30 goals for (9th overall). Their power play is lethal too—13 goals on 41 chances (31.71% efficiency, 2nd in NHL)—and with Calgary's league-worst 12.1 penalty minutes per game (2nd-most drawn against), expect extra chances for Stutzle and Co. to light the lamp. The Flames will get the puck on net sitting 11th in shots, but it hasn’t translated to goals (2.1 per game, though dead last at 32nd). Nazem Kadri's midrange sniping (tied for 9th in midrange goals last year) and Jonathan Huberdeau's high-danger volume should feast on Ottawa's sieve-like goaltending. Calgary's and Ottawa have both gone over 5.5 goals in 8 of 11 games this season.

#69/70 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (+110) - New Jersey at Colorado, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Jacob Markstrom was in the starters crease at morning practice for the Devils so he is expected to get the start tonight.  Markstrom has a 3.88 GAA and an .845 save percentage so he has struggled early this season.  As for the Avalanche, coach Jared Bednar has announced Scott Wedgewood as his starting goalie for tonight's game.  Though Wedgewood has decent numbers playing in place of normal starter Malcolm Blackwood, his current form is not good. He has allowed 11 goals in his last 3 starts and lost all 3 games and had an .825 save percentage in these 3 starts.  Wedgewood certainly will have his hands full trying to slow down this 8-1 Devils team tonight.  New Jersey has scored at least 3 goals in all 9 games this season!  The Devils have averaged scoring 4 goals per game during their current 8-game winning streak!  Markstrom has not played in 2 weeks so he is going to have his hands full trying to stop the Avalanche here!  Colorado has earned at least a point in the standings in 9 of their 10 games this season. The Avalanche have scored an average of 3.3 goals this season and have scored 4 goals in each of their last 3 games on home ice!  The Avs are seeking revenge for the 4-3 loss at New Jersey last week and we look for another very entertaining affair in this one after that one was already 2-2 after just one period of play and easily could have finished with much more than 7 goals!  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Tuesday in Colorado.

ASA NHL play on: Dallas Stars (-140) vs. Los Angeles Kings 9pm ET - Tonight's matchup at American Airlines Center pits the high-octane Dallas Stars against a stingy but road-weary Los Angeles Kings squad. With the Stars listed as -150 moneyline favorites, I'm backing Dallas to notch the victory and extend the home team dominance in this series. Dallas enters with elite offensive firepower that has underperformed early on this season, but is ready to explode any given night. This Stars offense was 3rd league-wide in goals for (275 total last season, averaging 3.35 per game) while sitting 6th in goals against (222 allowed). At home, they went 28-10-3 a year ago, this Kings team limped to a 17-19-5 road mark in 2024-25. Digging deeper into the splits, Dallas posted a robust +1.12 average goal differential in their 41 home games last season, outpacing foes by more than a goal per night on familiar ice. Conversely, LA managed just a -0.25 average goal differential across their 41 road tilts, where defensive lapses and sluggish starts were a recurring issue. In net, Jake Oettinger gives Dallas a clear edge. The 26-year-old stud anchored the crease with a 36-18-4 record, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 shutouts over 58 starts last year—numbers that ballooned his value with an eight-year extension this offseason. Oettinger thrives at home, where his puck-tracking and rebound control neutralize LA's forecheck. On the flip side, Darcy Kuemper was lights-out for the Kings in 2024-25 (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 shutouts in 50 games), earning Vezina buzz and anchoring LA's league-2nd goals against (203 total). But his road splits dipped noticeably (.915 SV%, 2.25 GAA), and facing Dallas' top-5 power play could expose any early rust in this cross-conference clash. Even-strength play tilts Dallas' way too. The Stars ranked top-5 in 5-on-5 expected goals share (55.2%) last season, leveraging their speed and cycle game to control play and generate high-danger chances— an advantage that should wear down LA's structured but aging blue line. Head-to-head history seals the deal: The home team won all three meetings last season and 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2022. Pick: Dallas Stars ML (-150) – Lay the juice; this feels like a 4-2 Stars dub.

ASAwins play on: Under 6.5 Goals (-135) Red Wings at Sabres 7:30 pm ET - The Detroit Red Wings (5-1-0) visit the Buffalo Sabres (2-4-0) tonight at KeyBank Center, where the total is set at 6.5 goals (Under -138). This matchup screams low-scoring affair, with both teams' stingy defenses and combined 2-7-2 record to the Under this season (Detroit 1-3-2; Buffalo 1-4-1). We expect a grind-it-out battle in the Atlantic Division clash, projecting 5 goals in this one. Detroit ranks 9th in goals for (20 total, 3.3 GPG) but elite 5th in goals against (14 total, 2.3 GAPG), holding foes under 3 goals in 5 of 6 games. Buffalo, meanwhile, is anemic offensively (29th in goals for at 15 total, 2.5 GPG) but solid 13th in goals against (18 total, 3.0 GAPG), allowing 3 or fewer in 4 of 6 outings.Combined, opponents score just 5.3 GPG (1.2 below the total), and only 1 of Buffalo's 6 games has topped 6.5 goals. Gibson gives Detroit consistent netminding with an 2-1 record in three games this season with a 2.98 GAA and .873 save percentage. Buffalo's Alex Lyon (.924 SV%, 2.54 GAA, 6 straight starts turned aside 27/30 shots in a 4-2 loss to Montreal with the final goal coming on an empty netter. As long as this O/U is north of 6 goals we like UNDER the total.

#11/12 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals (-105) - San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like the over here even if the goalie match-up changes but all signs are pointing to Yaroslav Askarov for the Sharks and Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders and both these guys are struggling.  Before we get into the goalie match-up, let's talk about what we've seen from these clubs so far this season.  The Islanders are off a win but it was via a 5-4 final and that was the 4th time in just 5 games that the Islanders have allowed 4+ goals this season!  New York has been scoring well the last 2 games with 9 goals potted so that is a good sign for them at least.  Here they will take advantage of the only winless team remaining in the league so far this season.  San Jose is 0-3-2 so far this season and a big problem has been too many goals conceded.  The Sharks are off a 3-0 shutout loss and this followed allowing an average of 5 goals in their first 4 games of the season!  Prior to the shutout loss San Jose scored 13 goals in their first 4 games and we fully expect them to bounce back here after being shutout.  The Sharks will be determined to bounce back from an attacking standpoint but, again, this is a horrible team defensively.  Also, Askarov is still finding his way at the NHL level where the 23-year old has a 3.44 GAA.  He has allowed 7 and 6 goals, respectively, in his 2 starts this season!  As for Sorokin, his first 3 seasons in the NHL were great but since then he has had a 3.01 GAA and a modest 2.71 GAA and now this season he is off to a slow start.  He is 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA so far this season.  Look for plenty of goals here as both goalies are struggling and we like the Islanders to score well after back to back strong games in that regard and we look for the Sharks to respond in the offensive zone after the shutout.  Given numbers like the above, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Tuesday in the NY Islanders game.

ASAwins play on: NY Rangers (-140) vs. Minnesota Wild - We like the New York Rangers to notch their first victory at Madison Square Garden tonight against a Minnesota Wild squad, who's playing Game 4 of a grueling five-game road trip and on a three-game skid. The Rangers defensive edge and netminding are the key factors in tonight’s showdown with the Wild. Igor Shesterkin has been lights-out early this season, posting a league-leading .962 save percentage and anchoring a Rangers defense that's surrendered just six goals across three home losses to powerhouses like Pittsburgh, Washington, and Edmonton (2.00 GAA in those tilts). Last year “Shesty” put up great numbers (2.86 GAA, .905 SV%) and we expect him to stonewall Minnesota's attack, which ranks 23rd in goals per game (2.67) and 22nd in shot percentage. In goal for the Wild will be Filip Gustavsson. Gustavsson played well in the season opener with a shutout vs. St. Louis, but he's cratered since, leaking 6, 3, and 5 goals over his last three starts (.888 SV%). Minnesota's defense has allowed 3.67 GAA (27th) with the 23rd overall save percentage at .880. New York will get their first home win of the season tonight.

#15/16 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 5.5 Goals (-125) - Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Stars are a perfect 3-0 this season and have scored at least 4 goals in all 3 wins!  They are off a 5-2 win versus Minnesota but did allow 4 goals in each of their first two wins.  We expect the Canucks to also challenge them here as Vancouver will be fired up off of back to back losses.  The Canucks did score 5 goals in a win over Calgary that began their season and we are confident that Vancouver brings a strong effort in the attacking zone here after the B2B losses.  Certainly the Canucks have plenty of confidence here as they scored 3 goals in the final minute here at Dallas in the most recent meeting and Vancouver ended up getting the OT winner as well in that crazy 6-5 final!  The Canucks also scored 3 goals in the 5-3 loss in the other meeting in Dallas last season and Sherwood was a star for Vancouver here against the Stars last season and he already has 3 goals in 3 games this season!  Boeser and Chytil also have scored multiple goals for the Canucks already this season.  Oettinger has not been as sharp as usual in goal for the Stars and Vancouver's Demko allowed at least 3 goals in both his starts versus Dallas last season.  3 straight (and 4 of last 5) meetings between these clubs in Dallas have totaled at least 7 goals and long-term these teams have a history of high-scoring battles overall when they meet.  That continues here as the set-up is perfect for an energized affair with plenty of end to end action.  Canucks hungry to respond off B2B losses and Stars will be aggressive at home and in attack mode as they look to extend their perfect start to the season.  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Thursday in Dallas.

UNDER 6 Goals Calgary Flames at Utah Mammoth, 9:30pm ET - Two offensively challenged teams face off tonight when the Flames take on the Mammoth. In three games this season the Mammoth have managed just 5 total goals with an offense that ranks 31st in shot percentage in the NHL. Last season, Utah ranked 21st in Goals For at 2.93 per game and that lack of offense seems to have carried over to the 2025 season. Calgary hasn’t been much better scoring 8 total goals in 4 games or 2 per game. The Flames shot percentage is 27th in the league at 8.2%. Utah has been a stone wall defensively though allowing just 7 goals on the season which is the second lowest total goals allowed in the NHL. Utah has gotten solid goaltending from Karel Vejmelka (1-1 with 1.99 GA) and a .918 save percentage. Calgary will have Dustin Wolf between the pipes who has gotten off to a shaky start with a 3.77 GA average in 4 starts. Wolf though has faced three teams that finished last season top 13 in total goals scored and Calgary was 29th in total goals a year ago with 220. Two of the three meetings a year ago between these two teams finished with 6 or less goals. The bet here is UNDER. 

ASA play on Seattle Kraken +135 at Montreal Canadiens, 7pm ET - The Kraken have a great shot for a 3-0 start and a road win in Montreal tonight. Driven by a solid goaltending advantage and special teams dominance, and underlying 5v5 play. Seattle's Joey Daccord has been lights-out early, stopping 61 of 63 shots (.968 SV%) for a +3.2 GSAx (8th in NHL), while Montreal's Sam Montembeault has struggled with 42 saves on 47 shots (.894 SV%) and a -0.4 GSAx (34th). The Habs' power play is ice-cold at 3-for-15 (20%), and they've allowed 15 more SOG than attempted—a defensive red flag. Seattle's PK is stout (3-for-4), and their 5v5 xG differential (+0.072) is much better than Montreal's (-0.4). Last season, despite Montreal's 6 extra wins, their 5v5 xG diffs were nearly identical (-21.4 vs. Seattle's -25.74). Seattle has won 3 of the last four meetings with the Habs on their home ice and tonight we like them to make it 4/5.

ASA play on Florida Panthers -145 at Philadelphia Flyers, 7:00 pm ET - This will be the second meeting of the season between these two teams with Florida winning the first October 9th 2-1. The Panthers outshot the Flyers 34-20 in that game which could have resulted in a much larger differential than the 1-goal final margin. Florida seems to be in mid-season form already as they are 3-0 and have outshot opponents 98-67 in three games. Philly is 0-2 and has been outshot 73-43 in those two games. The Panthers are converting 41.7% of their power-play attempts and continue to put pressure on opposing goalies. Philadelphia allowed the 5th most total goals last season and was bottom 10 in penalty killing percentage. We like the volume of shots to be the difference in this one and will lay it with Florida on the moneyline.

ASA play on: OVER 6 Goals Buffalo @ Boston, 7pm ET - Buffalo is coming off a shutout loss in the opener against the Rangers while Boston is already 2-0 on the young season with wins over Chicago and Washington. The Bruins offense has been just fine scoring 3 and 4 goals in those two wins on a combined 56 total shots. Buffalo had 37 shot attempts against the Rangers but simply couldn’t find the net. This Sabres team was 10th in goals per game a year ago at 3.23 with the 6th best shot percentage in the league at 11.6. Buffalo also allowed the 3rd most goals per game at 3.50 last season. Boston wasn’t much better defensively a year ago allowing 3.30 GF per game with the 6th worst save percentage in the league. Boston was a lower scoring team in the league a year ago but has found something this season early on in their two wins. Buffalo will have either Alex Lyon or newly signed Colten Ellis between the pipes, the Bruins are going with Jeremy Swayman. It won’t matter who’s in goal for either team as there will be plenty of shots on goal to produce a 6+ total.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6.5 Goals – Edmonton vs Florida – Game 6 Tuesday, 8pm ET - If it’s not broken, don’t fix it! The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the series with all five games finishing with 7 or more goals. These teams are on a 7-0 OVER streak for the season when they have faced off. There have been a high volume of shots on goal in this series with 78, 88, 64, 75 in the first four games, then just 40 in Game 5 which still produced 7 goals. Goaltending for Edmonton has been subpar as Skinner and Pickard have both looked shaky at times. Bobrovsky has allowed his fair share of goals in this series too with 16 goals against in the 5-game series. We expect the higher scoring trend to continue and will back the 100% trend of OVERS in this series. 

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers +133 at Florida Panthers, 8pm ET - The first two games of this series went to OT before the Panther crushed the Oilers in Game 3 by a 6-1 margin (we were happy with that result). Edmonton committed some head-scratching penalties in the last game and should clean up those errors in this ‘must-win’ game. The Oilers have outshot the Panthers in every game of this series and 4 of five meetings this season. Oilers Connon McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (playoffs top two point leaders with 26 and 25 points respectively) were held without a point in the last game so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Florida is 30-16 SU as a home favorite this season, but the Oilers are a respectable 13-7 as a road dog. Edmonton has been one of the NHL’s best road teams this postseason, posting a 6-3 record away from Rogers Place, including six wins in their last seven road games. We like the Oilers in this one.

ASA NHL play on: Florida Panthers (-140) vs Edmonton Oilers - Game 3, 8pm ET - Florida’s impressive 31-17 home ice record during the 2024-25 regular season at Amerant Bank Arena, has us on them tonight with this series tied 1-1. The Panthers went 15-7 in games where they were priced in a similar moneyline range (-128 to -140), as slight favorites. The Panthers have allowed just 2.33 goals per game in their last 12 playoff games, with goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky posting a 1.57 GAA and .935 save percentage over his last 10 starts, giving them a clear edge in net. Florida’s disciplined defense has also neutralized Edmonton’s potent power play, going 7-for-7 on the penalty kill in the first two games. Offensively, the Panthers’ depth shines, with 21 players recording points in the playoffs and their third line consistently making an impact. With sharp betting markets favoring Florida at -128 to -141 across top sportsbooks, the Panthers are well-positioned to capitalize on their home advantage and defensive prowess to take a 2-1 series lead tonight

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 Goals Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers, Friday 8pm ET - We cashed our OVER bet on Game 1 of the Finals but will flip to the UNDER in Game 2. These two teams got off to a fast start in the opener with 3 goals in the first 12:30 of the game. Then two more goals followed early in the 2nd period, but the defenses/goaltending settled in and were much better for the rest of the 2nd and 3rd period. Both teams have more than capable offenses but let’s not forget these two teams were 1st and 4th in Goals allowed per game at 2.39 (Panthers) and 2.82 (Oilers). Netminder Bobrovsky for the Panthers allowed 4 goals in Game 1 but that was on 46 shots by the Oilers. In his previous three playoff games he gave up 6 total goals on 91 attempts. Oilers goalie Skinner has given up 6 goals in his last two games but prior had allowed just 2 in three games on 88 shot attempts. This O/U number has been adjusted up and the value now lies on the UNDER 6.5 GOALS!

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 GOALS Florida Panthers vs Edmonton Oilers Game 1 Wednesday - Both teams are offensive juggernauts, with Edmonton leading the playoffs in goals per game (4.06) and high-danger shots (146), while Florida ranks third in goals per game (3.88) and leads in high-danger shot conversion (31.7% shooting percentage). Their regular-season meetings this year further support this bet, with games totaling 11 goals (Florida 6-5 win) and 7 goals (Florida 4-3 win). Additionally, the Over has hit in 5 of Florida’s last 6 road games against Edmonton and 6 of Edmonton’s last 7 games against Florida. Despite strong goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky (2.11 GAA, .912 SV%) and Stuart Skinner (1.73 GAA, .931 SV% since May 10), the offensive depth—led by Connor McDavid (26 playoff points) for Edmonton and Sam Bennett (10 playoff goals) for Florida—suggests goals will come in bunches. We expect a fast-paced, high-scoring Game 1.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -128 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 8pm ET - The Dallas Stars return to the American Airlines Center, where they boast a strong 7-2 record in the 2024-25 playoffs, to face the Edmonton Oilers in a must-win game. The Stars' offense showed promise in Game 4 with Roope Hintz’s return, generating quality chances despite Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner stopping 86 of 88 shots over the last three games. However, Skinner may regress, and Edmonton will be without top-line winger Zach Hyman (5 goals, 11 points in 15 playoff games), a significant loss given his offensive and physical impact. Expect Dallas to leverage their home dominance and capitalize on Edmonton’s weakened lineup for a crucial victory. Dallas outshot Edmonton 29-20 in Game 4 and ranks 4th in playoff home goals per game at 3.22. We expect the offense to break through against Skinner and extend this series.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 8pm ET - Carolina got a much-needed win in Game 4 but still trail this series 1-3. Florida had a few key injuries in Reinhart, Greer and Mikkola but all three skated in an optional practice on Wednesday and may be available tonight. After the 0-3 shutout loss we expect the Panthers to be back on their offensive game which scored 5, 5 and 6-goals in the previous three games. In three of the four games of this series, we have seen 48 or more total shots on goal. That high volume should continue tonight and gives us a solid advantage with an OVER wager. In five of the seven meetings between these two teams this season, one of the two teams has scored 5+ goals themselves. We are betting OVER in this one.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals +160 vs. Dallas Stars, 8pm ET -Edmonton is 30-14-3 at home this season and 5-1 in the playoffs with three of those home wins coming by 2+ goals. The Oilers averaged 3.47 goals per game during the regular season and are averaging 3.93 GF/G in the postseason. Edmonton led the league in shots on goal during the regular season and are leading in the playoffs with 437. The Oilers have also gotten solid goaltending with a 2.93 goals-against average. In comparison the Stars have allowed 50 goals in the postseason (most in NHL) with a goals-against average of 3.13. Nearly half of the Oilers home wins this entire season has come by 2 or more goals. We will take the added risk/reward with a spread bet of mins -1.5 goals on Edmonton and bet the series trend continues as all three games have been decided by 3 or more goals.

ASA NHL play OVER 5.5 GOALS +115 - Hurricanes vs. Panthers Saturday, May 24 8pm ET - We like the Hurricanes-Panthers Game 3 at 8 p.m. ET Over 5.5 goals. Florida leads the playoffs with 45 goals (3.75 per game) and 82 high-danger shots. Carolina’s +16 goal differential and 46.6% offensive zone time signal scoring potential. Game 1 hit seven goals, and Andersen’s .877 high-danger save percentage in that game suggests vulnerabilities. In Game 2 the Panthers put up 5 goals on just 21 shots. In the last nine meetings between these two teams, one has managed to score 4+ goals in seven of those contests. If one of these teams gets to 4 this game should go Over easily. With Carolina down 2-0, expect an open, high-scoring game.

#56: ASA NHL top play on Carolina Hurricanes -130 over Florida Panthers, Thursday 8 pm ET - As we mentioned in our write-up on the Panthers over the Maple Leafs in that Game 7 win over the weekend, the experience level of the Panthers is strong as they have have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. Also, with the Game 7 win over the Maple Leafs it means that Florida has now won six straight playoff series and nine of ten, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons.  However, all that said, situational aspects are a key in every series and this is a great spot to go against Florida as the Hurricanes look poised to bounce back from the Game 1 home ice loss.  Carolina lost that game despite a strong edge in shots on goal as Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky came up big in Game 1.  While we certainly respect the Panthers with their big game experience - led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk and Bobrovsky to name a few - these Hurricanes have now outshot their opponents in 8 straight games by an average margin of 12 shots on goal per game!  They dominated the Devils and the Capitals in the first two rounds of this post-season and they aren't going to let a rare home loss completely derail them.  In fact they have been extremely strong when at home and having lost their prior home game.  That was their first home ice of this post-season and on the season overall, the Hurricanes are 9-1 (90%) when they are at home and they lost their most recent home game!  Overall, Carolina had won 36 of 45 (80%) on home ice including 5 in a row in the post-season prior to that Game 1 loss versus Florida.  The Panthers certainly have had another great season but they are only a .500 team on the road this season.  The Marchand / Gostisbehere incident adds a little extra fuel to the fire for the Hurricanes as well as what prompted all that was a questionable attempt by Marchand to do some damage on a late hit that was narrowly avoided by Gostisbehere. So far in this post-season, when the Panthers entered a game off B2B wins in regulation (non-OT wins) they have lost the next game all 3 times!  Indeed an 0-3 situation in play for Florida here again and we look for the Panthers to drop to 0-4 in this situation as the Hurricanes will come out flying on home ice and off a home loss.  Carolina will be relentless and they even this series up   Lay it! 

ASA NHL play on UNDER 6.5 GOALS Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars – 8pm ET - Dallas has been a strong UNDER bet with 37 Overs, 52 Under and 8 ties in their last 97 games. Of the 95 games involving the Stars this season, 62 have finished with 6 or less goals. Edmonton has an O/U record of 20-26-1 on the road this season and are 41-50-2 on the season. After a shaky start to the playoffs, Oilers netminder Skinner has been great in his last two starts with 0 goals allowed on 47 total shots against Vegas. The Stars goalie Oettinger has been a brick wall in the playoffs with only 7 goals allowed in his last 4 starts and a .942 Save Percentage. The Oilers have had their struggles on the road with zero power play goals in the postseason. Dallas is averaging 2.92 goals per game in the playoffs but it’s going to be tough to get to 3 goals against this Edmonton defense that is off two straight shutouts.

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -125 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs, Game 7 – 7:30pm ET - The Panthers are 3-1 all-time in Game 7s, including 2-0 on the road, with notable victories against the Boston Bruins (2023) and Edmonton Oilers (2024 Stanley Cup Final). Toronto, conversely, is 12-15 in Game 7s, with a six-game losing streak in these scenarios, last winning in 2004 against Ottawa. The experience of the Panthers who have 13 players on their roster from last season’s Game 7 win against Edmonton in the Stanley Cup. The Panthers hold a 60/40 edge in expected goals and they’ve outscored Toronto 20-16 in the series. Florida has won five straight playoff series and eight of nine, advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past two seasons. Toronto hasn’t reached the third round in 23 years. Netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-0 in Game 7s with a 1.88 GAA and .933 save percentage, including 23 saves in last season’s Cup-clinching win. Toronto’s Joseph Woll, while impressive with a Game 6 shutout, has less high-stakes experience. We are on the Panthers with their Game 7 experience, led by Marchand, Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, and Bobrovsky, outweighs Toronto’s home advantage. Florida’s ability to dominate 5v5 play and their recent playoff pedigree make them the safer pick to advance to the Eastern Conference Final. 

#8 ASA TOP PLAY ON Winnipeg Jets -125 over Dallas Stars, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Though he did have some struggles on the road in this post-season, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has had some big games at home in this post-season which has helped lead the Jets to a 5-1 home record in these playoffs.  Hellebuyck's last start here was a 4-0 shutout win for the Jets and this was reminiscent of how he was virtually a brick wall at home for much of this past regular season.  In the regular season he posted an exceptional 27-3-3 record at home, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts!  Now, coming off another shutout at home in his most recent start here in Winnipeg, we are banking on another strong performance from Hellebuyck to help lead the way to another big home win for the Jets as they look to extend this series to a Game 6 in Dallas.  The Jets Hellebuyck is 5-1 with a sizzling 1.99 GAA and a .902 save percentage at home in this post-season.  The Stars have not scored as well on the road in this post-season.  Other than 1 big offensive game at Colorado (but a 7-4 loss), Dallas has only scored an average of 1 goal per game in regulation time of their other 4 road games in this post-season!  Winnipeg has scored an average of 3.5 goals in regulation time of their 6 home ice games in the post-season.  We also like the fact that the Jets have NOT been outshot in any of the games in this series.  One saw equal shots at 26 apiece and the other 3 games have seen Winnipeg lead shots in goal by an aggregate of 88 to 69 shots!  Lastly, there is also a nice angle we like here and that is that the last 7 times the Jets were on home ice and coming off a loss, they have won the game all 7 times!  They rally the troops one more time here in this one and get another big win at home in Winnipeg!  Lay the money line for a top play on the Jets Thursday.

ASA NHL play on Toronto Maple Leafs +125 vs. Florida Panthers, 7pm ET - The home team has won all four games and we see no reason for that trend to change now. Leaf’s netminder Joseph Woll will be in goal again tonight after an 0-2 loss in Game 3, but Woll had a .946 save percentage with 35 saves on 37 attempts. We like Toronto to rebound off that shutout loss considering they had 13 goals in the first three games of this series. The Leaf’s are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games and were 31-15 at home this season. Florida was 23-23 on the road this season, 16-16 as a road chalk, Toronto has been a home moneyline dog just 10 times this season, winning seven of those contests. Back the home team here.

ASA NHL play on Dallas Stars -140 vs. Winnipeg Jets, 4:30pm ET - Dallas has been one of the best home teams in the NHL this season with a 32-11-3 record. 21 of the Stars home wins in the regular season came by 2 or more goals. Jets goaltender Hellebuyck has had his struggles on the road in the playoffs allowing 5, 5, 6 AND 5-goals so if the Stars get one early, he could have a mental meltdown and allow a big number in Dallas today. Hellebuyck just allowed 5 goals to the Stars on this ice in the last game on 26 shots for an .808 save percentage. Netminder Jake Oettinger is 4-1 at home in the playoffs with a .913 save percentage. In the last game versus the Jets he allowed just 2 goals on 26 shots for a .923 SV%. We like the Stars to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series.

ASA NHL play on Vegas Knights +105 vs Edmonton Oilers, 9:30PM ET - Vegas put an end to the Oilers 6-game winning streak with a last second, or last half-second goal for a 4-3 win in Game 3 of this series. Trailing 1-2 in this series we like the Knights to even it up tonight in Game 4, especially with the Oilers missing goaltender Calvin Pickard again for this one. That means the Oilers are forced to start Stuart Skinner again who has given up 4, 5 and 6 goals in his last three starts. He is allowing 3.1 goals per game in his last ten starts with a .866 save percentage. Skinner is 1-3 against Las Vegas this season. Vegas is 37-22 with Adin Hill in net this season and clearly has an edge in that department for this game. Take the live dog in this one.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -120 vs. Las Vegas Knights, 9pm ET - I’m going to keep this analysis shorter than normal today and essentially say…bet the red hot streak with Edmonton who has won 6 straight games. The Oilers have outshot Las Vegas 65-49 in the first two games of this series and have put a ton of pressure on the Knights goaltender Hill who has allowed 9 goals. Las Vegas is a solid road team, but Edmonton is 28-13-3 on their home ice, 3-0 in the playoffs. Don’t overthink this one and back the Oilers.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets -125 vs. Dallas Stars, 9:30pm ET - The Winnipeg Jets are in a must win situation here and we trust them at home with their 34-8-4 record, at Canada Life Centre. The Jets have won 3 of five meetings with Dallas this season with two of those wins coming in dominating fashion 4-1 at home. Winnipeg’s has been outstanding at home, with a 9-2 record and a +12 goal differential in their last 11 home games. Connor Hellebuyck, boasting a .921 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA, has been a wall at home, stopping 30 of 32 shots in Game 1 despite the 3-2 loss. The Jets’ offense, led by Kyle Connor (8 points in his last 4 games), averages 3.4 goals per game against Dallas, while their league-leading 67 goals through 15 games highlight their scoring depth. We like Winnipeg to even this series 1-1 tonight.

ASA NHL Under 6.5 Goals – Edmonton Oilers vs. Vegas Golden Knights (May 8, 2025) - Last Game (May 6, 2025): Edmonton won 4-2, but Edmonton’s two late third-period goals and an empty-netter inflated the score. Shots were low (Edmonton: 28, Vegas: 17), suggesting limited scoring chances. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams. The Oilers have been a strong road Under team all season long with a 19-26 record, the Knights at home are Under in 24 of 45 at home this season. When Pickard (Oilers) and Hill (Knights) have started in goal this season they are a combined 43-49-1 Under on the season. Both teams ranked top 10 in Shots on Goal allowed this season and will solid goaltending tonight we don’t see these two teams getting to7 or more total goals.

ASA NHL Dallas Stars -105 vs. Winnipeg Jets – 9:30pm ET May 7, 2025 - The Stars are riding momentum from a Game 7 upset over Colorado, led by Mikko Rantanen’s third-period hat trick (five goals, seven assists in Round 1). Jake Oettinger (2.85 GAA, .911 save percentage) outshines Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (3.85 GAA, .830 save percentage), who struggled in Round 1. Dallas’ depth (21 goals in seven games) and 22% power play exploit Winnipeg’s defensive lapses (27 goals allowed). Despite Winnipeg’s home strength, the Stars’ form makes them the better bet.

ASAwins NHL Washington Capitals (+123) vs. Carolina Hurricanes – 7pm ET May 6, 2025 - The Washington Capitals face the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Second Round playoff series at Capital One Arena. As the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals are riding high after defeating the Montreal Canadiens in five games in Round 1. The Hurricanes, the No. 2 seed in the Metropolitan Division, advanced past the New Jersey Devils but face a tough challenge on the road against a Washington team that thrives at home. The Capitals posted a 26-9-8 record at home during the regular season. Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson was a brick wall at home in Round 1, stopping 86 of 90 shots for a .956 save percentage across three games. He allowed two goals or fewer in each contest, including a 33-save effort in Game 1 and a 25-save performance in Game 2, where he shut down Montreal’s third-period push. Thompson’s 4.7 goals saved above expected in the series highlight his elite play, which is crucial against Carolina’s high-octane offense (3.8 goals per game in their last 10 regular-season games). Alex Ovechkin remains Washington’s offensive cornerstone, particularly at home. He scored in both regular-season games against Carolina this year and has three goals in his last three games against them. In Round 1, Ovechkin netted two goals in Game 1, including the overtime winner, and averaged 3.68 shots on goal per game during the regular season. Washington’s defense was stellar in Round 1, allowing the fewest high-danger scoring chances (24) of any team. Their expected goals against rate was under 44% in five-on-five play, showcasing a structure that can neutralize Carolina’s puck-possession game. While Carolina’s penalty kill was perfect in Round 1, Washington’s power play, powered by Ovechkin, scored three times against Montreal and could capitalize on any Hurricanes infractions. The Hurricanes struggled on the road during the regular season, posting a 16-24-1 record in their last regular season away games. Carolina’s goaltending is also uncertain, with Frederik Andersen’s status unclear after an injury in Round 1. If backup Pyotr Kochetkov starts, his .884 save percentage against Washington this season could be exploited. This a great spot to ‘capitalize’ on a live home underdog!

ASA NHL St. Louis Blues -115 vs. Winnipeg Jets 8pm ET - In Game 6, the St. Louis Blues are primed to defeat the Winnipeg Jets and force a Game 7. The Blues dominated both home games, outscoring the Jets 12-3, and now face a Jets team missing captain Mark Scheifele, injured in Game 5. Scheifele’s absence (4 goals, 2 assists in playoffs) weakens Winnipeg’s offense. Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington, with a 10-4-1 record, .909 save percentage, and 2.26 GAA over his last 15 starts, has been stellar, allowing just 3 goals on 42 shots in Games 3 and 4. Back the Blues to extend the series.

ASA NHL play on Tampa Bay Lightning (-110) vs. Florida Panthers , 7:30pm ET Game 5 - The Tampa Bay Lightning face the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference First Round series, with the Panthers leading 3-1. Despite the series deficit, the Lightning are listed as -110 favorites at home, and we like them to extend the series. The Lightning are in a must-win situation at Amalie Arena, where they are 29-8-4 (70.7% win percentage), outscoring opponents by an average of 3.6 goals to 2.8 per game at home. While they lost Games 1 and 2 at home (6-2 and 2-0), we trust their +34 goal differential at Amalie Arena. In Game 3, the Lightning fired 38 shots on goal, with Jake Guentzel (1 goal, 2 assists) and Nikita Kucherov (3 assists) leading the charge. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34 shots (.971 save percentage), outdueling Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky. Power Play Edge: Tampa Bay’s power play operated at 26.4% during the regular season (4th in NHL), compared to Florida’s 22.1% (11th). In Game 3, the Lightning converted 1 of 3 power-play opportunities, while Florida went 0-for-2. If Tampa Bay draws penalties, their man-advantage unit could be a difference-maker. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 113-game playoff start streak, with a career postseason save percentage of .921. His 33-save performance in Game 3 and ability to handle high-danger chances (14 of 15 high-danger shots stopped) make him a cornerstone for a Game 5 win.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -125 vs Edmonton Oilers, 10 pm ET - The Los Angeles Kings take on the Edmonton Oilers in Game 5 of their 2025 NHL Playoffs first-round series at Crypto.com Arena, with the series tied 2-2. We like the Kings tonight, backed by their NHL-best 33-6-4 home record this season (.814 winning percentage). At home, they have a +1.42 goal differential, scoring 3.06 goals per game while allowing just 1.98 (best in the NHL). Goaltending gives the Kings an edge, with Darcy Kuemper posting a 2.02 GAA and .922 save percentage in the regular season (second in the NHL among goalies with 50 starts). He also had two shutouts against the Oilers this year (3-0 on April 5, 5-0 on April 14). Edmonton’s Calvin Pickard, expected in net, has a 2.71 GAA and .900 save percentage, with a .889 save percentage in the playoffs. The Kings went 3-1 against the Oilers in the regular season with a +8 goal differential, and their defense has been solid at home.

ASA NHL play on Florida Panthers -135 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, 7pm ET We like the Panthers off their game 3 home loss to the Lightning. Florida’s 27-13-2 home record, 40-28 mark as favorites, and superior performance against winning teams give them the edge. They’ve outshot Tampa Bay 74-63 in the series, while Sergei Bobrovsky’s .936 SV% (2.53 GAA) outshines Andrei Vasilevskiy’s .892 SV% (2.67 GAA). Tampa Bay’s 19-23 road record and 7-14 mark as underdogs highlight their struggles. Florida’s depth, led by Verhaeghe and Tkachuk, and strong penalty kill make them the bet to take a 3-1 series lead.

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers (-129) vs. Los Angeles Kings (Game 4, 9:30pm ET Sunday, April 27) - Edmonton’s 26-13-3 home record (62.6% win rate) this season follows a 28-9-4 mark last year, and their Game 3 rally (four third-period goals) shows their resilience after dropping the first two games in LA. The Oilers’ 5-on-5 play is a major advantage, outpacing the Kings with a 51.96% Corsi For percentage and 59.36% high-danger chance percentage in the series, including 31-14 scoring chances when Connor McDavid (12 points in series) faces LA’s top lines. Despite a dismal 0-for-12 power play (0%), Edmonton’s regular-season 26.3% power-play rate (4th in NHL) should capitalize on LA’s penalty kill, which allowed 9 power-play goals in 20 chances (55%) in last year’s playoffs. The Kings, with a 17-19-5 road record and -15 goal differential away from home, struggle to match Edmonton’s pace, despite Darcy Kuemper’s stellar 2.02 GAA and .922 SV%. Kuemper faces Edmonton’s top-three rush offense (3.16 GF/G, 11th), which generated 36 shots in Game 3. LA’s 5-for-10 power-play success (50%) is potent, but their 27% fewer road goals and 0-12 penalty-kill chances in Game 3 suggest vulnerabilities. Betting trends favor Edmonton: they’re 7-4 in their last 11 home playoff games, while LA is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road playoff underdog spots.

ASA NHL play: Over 6 Goals in Dallas  Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche (Game 4, Saturday 9:30pm ET) - Dallas (3.35 GPG, 3rd) and Colorado (3.33 GPG, 6th) are offensive powerhouses, averaging 30.8 and 29.9 shots per game, respectively. Five of their last six meetings this season (including playoffs) have finished with 6 or more goals. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger (2.67 GAA, .904 SV% in series) and Colorado’s Mackenzie Blackwood (2.34 GAA, .906 SV% in series) face high shot volumes (27-28 per game). Both teams’ potent power plays (Colorado 24.79%, Dallas 22.5% vs. opponent) and Colorado’s home scoring (3.45 GPG) support a high-scoring game. Trends show 5-1 Over in head-to-head matchups and 58% Over in Colorado’s home playoff games since 2022.

NHL play on: Ottawa Senators -107 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Game 3 Thursday, 7pm ET - I’m betting on the Ottawa Senators to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 on Thursday night at Canadian Tire Centre, with the Sens a slight favorite. Despite trailing 0-2 in the series, Ottawa has been the better team overall, outshooting Toronto 61-45 across the first two games. The Senators also swept the regular-season series 3-0, outscoring Toronto 7-3. Ottawa’s underlying numbers are strong—they’ve led the playoffs with 148 shot attempts through two games and hold edges in scoring chances, expected goals, and high-danger chances, even if they haven’t converted enough. At home, where they went 27-11-3 this season, the Sens should capitalize on their territorial dominance. Meanwhile, Toronto’s 33-12-2 record when outshot this season (47 times) is impressive, but their 5-on-5 play has been underwhelming, outscoring Ottawa just 4-3 in that situation despite a 9-4 overall edge. With Ottawa’s physicality, home crowd energy, and regular-season success against the Leafs, I expect a Sens win to get back into the series.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -130 vs. Edmonton Oilers Game 2 Wednesday, 10pm ET - LA led 4-0 in Game 1 but let Edmonton tie it at 4-4 in the 3rd before winning 5-4. That should serve as a wakeup call for the Kings who dominated 2 full periods before the late collapse. The Kings have the NHL’s second-best defense (203 goals allowed) and a 32-6-4 home record, allowing just 1.98 goals per game. Darcy Kuemper’s elite 2.02 GAA and .922 SV% outmatch Stuart Skinner’s 2.81 GAA and .896 SV%, and LA has won 4 of 5 matchups this season, including two shutouts. LA is on an 18-4 run right now and we’ll back them again in Game 2.

ASA Tampa Bay Lightning -115 vs. Florida Panthers Game 1 Tuesday, 8:30pm ET - Tampa’s offensive firepower, goaltending edge, and home-ice advantage give them the upper hand in this series opener. Tampa led the NHL with 3.60 goals per game this season, driven by Nikita Kucherov (121 points), Brayden Point (42 goals), and Jake Guentzel (41 goals), while their five-on-five GF/60 of 2.79 ranked fourth league-wide. Since February 1, they’ve allowed just 2.40 goals per game, sixth-fewest in the NHL. Florida, the defending champs, averaged 3.00 goals per game (15th) but underperformed by 29 goals based on expected metrics, indicating finishing issuies. They allowed 2.72 goals per game (seventh-fewest), but their Net Rating is only two goals better than Tampa’s, the tightest margin of any first-round series. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 SV%) is a key advantage for Tampa, especially at home, where he’s posted a .927 save percentage since the 4 Nations Face-Off. He ranks second in high-danger save percentage at five-on-five, ideal against Florida’s low-danger shot volume (first in LDSF/60). Sergei Bobrovsky (2.44 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid but not elite, and Florida’s forecheck, while the league’s best, may struggle against Tampa’s improved puck-moving defensemen like Victor Hedman and Nick Perbix. Florida’s health is a concern: Matthew Tkachuk (groin) hasn’t played since February 8, Aaron Ekblad is suspended for Games 1 and 2, and Aleksander Barkov is recovering from an upper-body injury. Tampa, meanwhile, is fully healthy and riding a 20-6-5 streak since January 30, with 29 home wins this season, second-most in the East. Tampa’s top-five power play (27.4% since March 1) could exploit Florida’s penalty-prone style—they’re the most penalized team in the NHL. We like the Lightning as a low money-line favorite here.

ASA NHL play on Los Angeles Kings -121 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 10pm ET - The Kings finished the 2024-25 regular season with an NHL-best 31-6-4 home record, boasting a .825 points percentage and allowing just 2.02 goals per game at home. Their home goal differential is impressive, with a stout defense ranked second in the league, conceding only 2.48 goals per game overall. This defensive strength is a key advantage against Edmonton’s potent offense, which averaged 3.16 goals per game overall, 3.05 GF/GP on the road. Darcy Kuemper anchors the Kings’ crease with an elite 31-11-7 record, a 2.02 GAA (second in the NHL), and a .921 save percentage across 50 appearances. At home, Kuemper is even better, posting a 20-3-2 record with a 1.67 GAA and .935 save percentage. He dominated Edmonton this season, going 3-1 with a 1.33 GAA and .952 save percentage, allowing just four goals on 100 shots. In contrast, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner struggled, finishing 26-18-4 with a 2.81 GAA and .896 save percentage. Skinner’s .894 save percentage against the Kings this season and weaker playoff leash make him a liability. The Kings also hold a 3-1 season series edge, including a 3-0 shutout and a 5-0 rout in April, showcasing their ability to stifle Edmonton’s stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom are battling injury concerns. With Edmonton missing key defenseman Mattias Ekholm and possibly others, the Kings’ depth and physicality should shine. Los Angeles’ 81.8% penalty kill (11th in the NHL) can neutralize Edmonton’s 24.8% power play, further tilting the ice. We like the Kings to win Game 1 and set the tone for the series.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-145) Prediction In Game 1 of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs - The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in a matchup primed for a low-scoring affair. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been a brick wall at home this season, posting an exceptional 27-3-3 record, 1.63 GAA, .938 SV%, and six shutouts. His dominance was evident in the regular-season series with the Blues, where the Jets won 3-1, including a 3-1 victory at home on April 7, with Hellebuyck allowing just one goal. St. Louis counters with Jordan Binnington, who has been solid with a 28-22-5 record, 2.69 GAA, and .900 SV% this season. Binnington has shown recent form, allowing three or fewer goals in three of his last five starts and one or fewer in five of his last eight. However, the Blues’ offense may be hampered, as leading scorer Robert Thomas (81 points, 21 goals, 60 assists) is questionable after an injury in the regular-season finale. Without Thomas, St. Louis, already averaging just 2.70 goals per game, could struggle against Hellebuyck’s elite goaltending. Winnipeg’s top-ranked defense (2.39 GAA) and the Blues’ improved penalty kill since the 4-Nations break further support a tight, defensive game. With both teams likely to play cautiously in this playoff opener, expect a goaltending duel that keeps the scoreline low.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins – 7pm ET - The Capitals (51-21-9) and Penguins (33-36-12) clash tonight in a high-scoring rivalry. Washington’s elite offense (3.67 GPG, 6th) faces Pittsburgh’s weak defense (3.52 GA/G, 30th). Their February 22, game ended 8-3, clearing 6 goals easily. The Capitals average 3.51 GPG, 2nd most in the NHL; Penguins 2.93 GPG which ranks 20th. Pittsburgh allows 3+ goals in 8 of the last 14 games overall and 4+ goals in six of those games; Washington’s is 9th in GA/GP at 2.77 but will rest some key defensemen heading into the playoffs. The last time these two teams met they produced 11-goals and one of the two teams involved in this series has scored 4 or more goals in 8 straight meetings. Washington’s 26.8% PP (4th) and Pittsburgh’s 25.6% PP (6th) exploit penalties (PIT: 557 PIM, 4th). The Over is 6-3-1in Washington’s last 10 and 8-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 13 home games. In net for the Penguins tonight will be Tristan Jarry who has a 3.12 GAA and .892 SV%. Jarry has allowed 4+ goals in 4 of his last six starts and his last two outings. Washington counters with goalie Charlie Lindgren who has a 2.72 GAA and .894 SV% on the season. Lindgren has given up 3 or more goals in 3 of his last four starts.

ASA NHL play on Montreal Canadiens -110 vs. Carolina Hurricanes, 7pm ET - Montreal, fighting to clinch the Eastern Conference’s second wild card spot, faces a Carolina team that’s locked up second in the Metropolitan Division and may rest key players. The Canes will call up several players from their American Hockey League affiliate the Chicago Wolves to get key contributors rest heading into the postseason. The Canadiens are 14-11 since February, 22nd with a strong 4-1 home record in their most recent 5 games on home ice. Montreal is led by goaltender Sam Montembeault (5-1-1 last 7 starts with a 2.12 GAA and .921 SV%) who is 1-1 against the Canes this season. Montreal’s top line of Suzuki and Caufield should have plenty of opportunities in this one which spells trouble for Canes goalie Kochetkov. Kochetkov has allowed at least 3 goals in six straight starts with a 2-4 record, 4.06 GAA and .830 SV%. Montreal’s desperation makes them the clear choice. Montreal is 2 points away from clinching a playoff berth. Carolina: 1-4-1 in their last 6 games, 0-3-1 in last 4 road games.

ASA NHL play on Seattle Kraken +104 vs. LA Kings, 10:37pm ET - Seattle hosts the Kings tonight, and we like the Kraken to win at home. Los Angeles, locked into their playoff spot after beating Edmonton last night, may rest players in this back-to-back. The Kings are 20-21-3 on the road, scoring 2.95 goals per game while allowing 2.89. Seattle, out of the playoffs, is 22-17-4 at home, averaging 3.12 goals per game and conceding 3.05. Joey Daccord (2.69 GAA, .909 SV%) gives the Kraken an edge over David Rittich (2.71 GAA, .890 SV%). Seattle’s motivated for their home finale.

ASA NHL play on OVER 6 Goals Utah Hockey Club at Nashville Predators, 8pm ET - The Utah Hockey Club vs. Nashville Predators game at Delta Center is primed to go over 6 goals (-110 odds). Utah allows 3.0 goals per game (17th in the NHL), while Nashville’s defense is leakier, conceding 3.3 goals per game (26th). Both teams rank in the top half for shots on goal, with Utah averaging 32.4 (8th) and Nashville at 31.1 (12th), ensuring plenty of scoring chances. Last week’s meeting saw a 4-3 Nashville win with a whopping 73 combined shots, highlighting their offensive tempo. Utah has been relentless lately, firing 34, 42, and 41 shots in their last three games, while Nashville hit 30+ shots in three straight before a 17-shot effort against Vegas. Goaltending adds fuel to the over. Utah’s Karel Vejmelka (2.52 GAA, .906 SV%) has been solid on the season, but has allowed 3 goals in three of his last 5 starts. Nashville’s Juuse Saros (2.96 GAA, .895 SV%, 46th in the league) struggles to stop pucks, with 15 goals allowed over his last four games. Both teams’ power plays rank in the top 17 (Utah 24.1%, Nashville 21.7%), and their penalty kills have been below average lately, suggesting special teams could contribute. With fast-paced play and defensive gaps, expect a high-scoring affair.

ASA NHL LA Kings -1.5 vs. Colorado Avalanche - 4pm ET - The Kings are poised to cover the -1.5 spread against the Avalanche. Colorado, locked into third in the Central, has little to play for, likely resting key players. Meanwhile, LA is chasing home-ice advantage for the playoffs, boasting a stellar 30-9 home record—the NHL’s best. The Kings also have extra motivation after dropping both prior games to the Avs this season. In net, Colorado’s Blackwood has faltered, posting a 1-3 record and allowing 12 goals over his last four starts. LA’s Kemper, however, is in top form, winning 7 of his last 9 starts with a 1.4 GAA across his last 10. Expect the Kings to dominate at home.

ASA NHL play on LA Kings -1.5 -125 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 10pm ET - We like the Kings to smack the Ducks by at least two goals (-1.5 spread) on Thursday night. Kuemper’s been a beast in net, rocking a 1.40 GAA and .940 save percentage since March, and he’s kept every game tight—two or fewer goals allowed in his last 14 starts. Dostal’s been decent for Anaheim, but his 3.52 GAA and .885 save percentage over his last six games don’t bode well, especially with the Ducks’ shaky D giving up over 31 shots a night. Plus, LA’s owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10. The Kings have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey with a 29-5-4 record and 3 of their last four games have been decided by multiple goals. With Anaheim off a game last night (1-4 last 5 without rest) it's going to be tough to get back up for this California showdown. The Kings did lose the last meeting (in the shootout) 2-1 in early February. Perfect spot for Revenge!

ASA NHL play on Edmonton Oilers -138 vs. St Louis Blues, 10 pm ET - The Edmonton Oilers come in as -125 favorites against the St. Louis Blues, and I’m leaning strong toward them in this one. The Blues just saw their impressive 12-game winning streak come to an end, which might leave them a bit off-balance, especially facing an Oilers team that’s already defeated them twice this season. Edmonton’s starting goalie, Calvin Pickard, has been sharp lately with a 2.0 GAA over his last 10 starts and a 5-2 record in his past seven decisions. The Oilers are also 20-8 when he’s in net, showing his reliability. On the other side, Jordan Binnington has been solid for St. Louis with a 2.2 GAA in his last 10 starts, but his most recent outing—where he gave up 4 goals—raises some concerns about his form heading into this game. With the Blues off that loss that snapped the long winning streak and Edmonton’s offensive firepower plus prior success against the Blues ... with consideration to all those factors it gives the Oilers the massive edge here. I will go with the Oilers money line to get this clutch win on home ice.

ASA NHL play on Winnipeg Jets (-159) vs. St. Louis Blues - The Blues are riding a crazy 12-game win streak, but I’m calling it—they’re hitting a wall tonight. They’re missing their stud young forward Dylan Holloway, who’s been lighting it up with 26 goals and 37 assists, and their top defenseman Colton Parayko, who’s got 35 points, is also sidelined. Their goalie Binnington’s been solid lately, but Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck? He’s on another level—25-3-3 at home with a ridiculous 1.67 goals-against average. The Jets already beat the Blues twice this season (2-1), and they’re a beast at home with a 28-6-4 record. Plus, they’re gunning for the Central Division crown and maybe even the Presidents’ Trophy. I’m betting the Jets cash this one out tonight.

ASA NHL play on Ottawa Senators -140 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets, 5pm ET - Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back on Sunday, but the Senators had the advantage of staying home and resting their top goaltender on Saturday, when they defeated Florida to boost their home record to 23-11-2. Meanwhile, Columbus relied on their primary goalie, Merzlikins, in Toronto on Saturday night, resulting in a loss that dropped their road record to 12-22-4. Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been solid between the pipes, posting a 10-3-1 record over 14 starts with a .904 save percentage. On the other side, Columbus netminder Daniil Tarasov has averaged a 2.5 goals-against average across his last ten appearances, with the Blue Jackets going winless in his past three starts and getting outscored by a combined nine goals. Ottawa has won 3 straight in the series with Columbus and 7 of the last ten meetings. Lay it with the Sens.

ASA play on Montreal Canadiens -153 vs. Philadelphia Flyers, 7pm ET - The Canadiens are in a must-win situation, desperately needing two points to keep their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Flyers have already been eliminated from postseason contention, giving them little motivation. Montreal has been strong at home with a 20-12-5 record this season and an impressive 5-1 mark as a home favorite. In contrast, Philadelphia has struggled on the road, posting a 12-17-8 record and a dismal 9-22 mark as the road underdog. The goaltending matchup further favors Montreal. The Flyers will start Samuel Ersson, who has a 3.8 goals-against average (GAA) over his last ten games, with Philly going just 3-7 in his last ten starts. The Canadiens counter with Sam Montembeault, who has been solid lately, going 6-2 in his last eight decisions with a 2.7 GAA. Given Montreal's desperation, home dominance, and goaltending edge, the Canadiens look like a solid play against a Flyers team with nothing left to fight for.

ASA NHL top play on OVER 6.5 GOALS (-110) Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets – 7 pm ET - Perfect set-up here. The Maple Leafs are off a big divisional win over Florida and they have a road trip down to Florida on deck!  This means we are unlikely to see defensive intensity at its peak for the Leafs here.  They are in a dogfight to win the Atlantic Division as they are trying to hold off the Panthers and the Lighting and now they face both those teams down in Florida this coming week.  Toronto should have no trouble scoring goals on this struggling Blue Jackets defense (and goalie Merzlikins struggling too) but don't be surprised if Columbus is answering them goal for goal at the other end.  The Jackets already have beaten the Leafs in both meetings this season and they scored at least 5 goals in each win!  Granted they faced a different goalie in those two games then they face tonight but the confidence against Toronto is certainly there!  Also, Columbus has scored 4 goals per game in their last 6 games so their overall confidence is back up in the offensive zone.  The trouble for the Blue Jackets is that they have allowed 5 goals per game last 6 games and Toronto is sure to take advantage.  As for the Leafs, we know Stolarz has been announced as the expected starter tonight for the Maple Leafs and he has been playing well.  However, the Jackets are in a desperate situation (still alive in the Wild card race) and yet are weak defensively and in goal.  The point is that Columbus knows they have no choice but to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Stolarz.  This is going to end up a wide open game the way we see it as the Blue Jackets will be forced to be aggressive and to take risks but they are so weak in their own end that the Maple Leafs will cash in on this too in what should turn into a free-flowing affair.  Analyzing all the factors with this one we can't see either team being held below 3 goals and that would mean a 4-3 final at the very least in this one.  We actually predict that a 5-3 or 5-4 game is even more likely.  Both teams have been finding the net with regularity.  More of the same tonight.  Over is the call here! 

ASA NHL play on Calgary Flames -155 vs. Anaheim Ducks, 9:37pm ET - The Calgary Flames, boasting a strong 19-12-5 record at home, are set to take on the struggling Anaheim Ducks, who have a 14-22 road record this season. Calgary's goaltender Dustin Wolf, owns an impressive 2.33 goals-against average (GAA) at home, gives the Flames a clear edge in net. Wolf has been particularly dominant against Anaheim, going 2-0 with a stellar 1.48 GAA in two career starts. The Ducks will have John Gibson in net who is 11-10 on the season with a 2.72 GAA. The Flames have been a solid bet as home favorites, posting a 13-5 record, and they’re undefeated at 5-0 when favored in this specific price range. Historically, Calgary has controlled this matchup, winning 8 of the last 10 games against the Ducks. Take the Flames to come out on top in this one.

ASA play on Vancouver Canucks -148 vs. Seattle Kraken, 10:30pm ET - The Canucks are in a must-win situation, as they sit in the middle of the crowded Western Conference Wild Card race. They sit 6 points behind the St Louis Blues for the final Wild Card spot and must get 2-points here to have a better shot of qualifying for the playoffs. Vancouver plays six of their final eight games at home. The Canucks have some injury concerns, but it shouldn’t matter against this Seattle team that has been eliminated from the playoffs and sit 7 games below .500. The Kraken are 1-5 in their last six games with three of those losses coming by multiple goals, including their last two games by a minus -6 goal differential. As a dog this season the Kraken boast a 20-33 record, the Canucks are 17-14. Vancouver’s #1 netminder Thatcher Demko is back after missing over a month and has looked good in his last 3 starts going 2-1. In his last ten games Demko has a .912 save percentage and 2.2 goals against. The Kraken will have Joey Daccord between the pipes which hasn’t been good for Seattle fans. Daccord is 3-7 in his last ten starts with a 3.3 goals against and .881 save percentage. Lay it with Vancouver tonight.

ASA NHL play on Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 goals +145 vs. Nashville Predators, 7pm ET - Columbus is chasing a Wild Card spot in the East with time running out on the regular season. The Blue Jackets are 2-1 in their last 3 games with the most recent being a 2-3 loss to Ottawa. Nashville on the other hand has been officially eliminated from the Playoffs this season. The Predators are 2-8 SU their last nine games with a negative total goal differential of minus -10 total goals. Preds center Colton Sissons is out for tonight along with several others being questionable on the second night of a back-to-back. Nashville is 4-18 as a road dog this season -1185, Columbus is rarely a home favorite, but they are 5-3 in that role +55. When the Preds start goaltender Juuse Saros they are 19-34 this season, when the Blue Jackets start Merzlikins they are 24-24. Nashville is 9-23-5 on the road this season, Columbus is 21-9-5 at home. Scheduling is certainly a factor here as the Preds are 3-9 in the second night of a back-to-back this season with a total goal differential of minus -19 goals.

ASA play on Philadelphia Flyers -120 vs. Nashville Predators, 7pm ET - The Flyers look like a new team under new head coach Shaw after Philly fired Tortorella last week. Philly was 1-10-1 SU in their last twelve games under Tortorella and had managed just 10 total goals in their previous six games. With Shaw the team atmosphere has changed dramatically, and it’s led to a 2-0 run with 13 goals. It could be a stretch, but mathematically the Flyers still have a shot at making the Wild Card. Nashville on the other hand has been officially eliminated from the Playoffs this season. The Predators are 2-7 SU their last nine games with a negative total goal differential of minus -9 total goals. The Preds lost center Colton Sissons on Saturday who is listed as doubtful tonight. Nashville is 4-17 as a road dog this season -1085, Philadelphia is rarely a home favorite, but they are 11-5 in that role +255. The Preds goaltender Juuse Saros is 18-28 this season with an average 2.89 goals against.

ASA NHL top play on OVER 6.5 GOALS (+100) Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks – 8 pm ET - Perfect set-up here. The Maple Leafs are in a B2B spot.  Toronto off a low-scoring win over the Kings last night but Los Angeles is known for playing lower-scoring games.  The Leafs used Stolarz in goal last night which means Woll should be getting the call tonight.  Not only has Woll allowed 4 or more goals in his last two starts, they were against the lower-scoring Sharks and Predators.  Now he faces a Ducks team that has been scoring well at home.  Also, Woll has allowed an average of 4 goals in his last 5 road starts so his road struggles are nothing new.  The Ducks will likely start Gibson here in goal after he returned recently from injury.  Though his first two starts have been good since he returned, he faced the Bruins and Predators.  Those are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league.  Now he faces a Maple Leafs team that is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league.  Also, before the win over the Bruins, Gibson allowed 6 goals in a loss to the Blackhawks in his most recent home start prior to facing Boston.  The Maple Leafs have won 5 of 7 games and averaged scoring 4 goals in those 7 games!  The Ducks have scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in their last 18 games on home ice!  Analyzing all the factors with this one we can't see either team being held below 3 goals and that would mean a 4-3 final at the very least in this one.  Both teams have been finding the net with regularity.  More of the same tonight.  Over is the call here! 

ASA play on NY Islanders -120 vs. Vancouver Canucks, 7:37 pm ET - This is a HUGE game for both teams as they chase a wild-card spot. Vancouver has some key injuries with forwards Nils Hoglander and Elias Pettersson sent home from this trip, while also being without Filip Chytil. The Nucks are going to have a tough time scoring against the Isles goaltender Ilya Sorokin who is 6-2-2 his last 10 starts with a 2.58 Goals/Against. Sorokin is averaging over 30 Saves per game over his last ten. The Islanders should have success finding the net tonight against Vancouver’s goalie Lankinen who is 2-5 SU his last seven starts allowing 3.0 Goals p/game in that stretch. When these teams met earlier this season the Isles won decisively 5-2. We expect another win here by New York.

#23/24 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6 Goals - Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The key reason that the Red Wings, prior to last night, had been straight-up spiraling with just 2 wins in their last 11 games had a lot to do with goals conceded. Now off a 5-1 win there is much more than meets the eye to that one. Detroit goalie Petr Mrazek got hurt very early and Alex Lyon came in and had a rare, strong performance though he did not face a lot of shots. The Red Wings had allowed 4 goals per game in their 11 games prior to last night's win. Detroit now has a goalie problem again tonight. Lyon won't go because he played last night and Mrazek is now out with an injury. That means it will be Cam Talbot here and he has allowed at least 4 goals in 6 of his last 9 starts! He will struggle again in goal here against a very strong Avalanche team and let's not forget the Red Wings started this road trip first getting smoked 4-1 in Washington and then torched 6-3 in Vegas. Detroit’s on the ropes, and now their big deadline pickup, Petr Mrazek, proved he ain't saving the day plus he is now out with an injury. We did end up liking what we saw from the Red Wings in their neutral zone play and playing up high in the D zone to create some odd man rushes in the win at Utah last night. They did not have to generate a lot of shots on goal but they did create quality chances plus we saw some extra hunger in front of the goal for 2nd chance opportunities. The Red Wings are still within striking distance of the final Wild Card spot in the East and they have some added confidence after netting 5 goals last night.  Trouble for Detroit is their goalie is likely to get torched again here by a Colorado team that has won 10 of 12 games and scored 4 goals per game on average during this run. The Avalanche are projected to have Mackenzie Blackwood in goal here. Not only did he allow 4 goals at Montreal in most recent start, he has allowed 7 goals in his last 2 starts on home ice. Last but not least, both these clubs have been strong on the power play this season. The Avalanche are not great on the penalty kill either while the Red Wings penalty kill has been brutally bad on the season.  This means we should see some special teams goals here as well. By the way, the Avs have averaged scoring 5 goals per game last 7 games at home plus we expect Detroit also builds off last night's 5-goal showing and we look for plenty of goals as a result in this one. Bet the over!

ASA NHL play on Utah Hockey Clubs -1.5 goals +155 vs Detroit Red Wings, 9 pm ET - The Red Wings are straight-up spiraling, just 2 wins in their last 11 games. That’s a one-way ticket to the NHL basement, and their playoff dreams in the East are pretty much toast. They’ve been bouncing around the country on this weird road trip, first getting smoked 4-1 in Washington, then torched 6-3 in Vegas. Detroit’s on the ropes, and their big deadline pickup, Petr Mrazek, ain’t saving the day. Dude stopped just 22 of 26 shots against the Caps—yikes. Flashback to February with Chicago, where he was rocking a brutal 5.11 GAA over four starts. Not exactly inspiring confidence. On the flip side, Utah’s still lurking around the edges of the West playoff race. They’re coming off back-to-back home dubs at the Delta Center, dropping 11 goals total on the Sabres and Lightning. So, here’s the play: take Utah on the puck line. Four of their last five wins were by 2+ goals, and Detroit’s been a mess—dropping 8 of their last 10, with six of those losses by 2 or more. Oh, and the last time these two squared off? Utah took it 4-2 and peppered the Wings with 40 shots to Detroit’s measly 19.

ASA NHL Hurricanes vs. Kings – UNDER 5.5 Goals - Today’s matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Los Angeles Kings presents a strong case for betting the UNDER 5.5 goals, driven by elite defensive play and recent low-scoring trends from both teams. The Hurricanes rank 5th in the NHL in goals allowed per game at 2.60, while the Kings sit just ahead at 3rd with 2.54. Carolina leads the league in preventing shots on goal, allowing the fewest per game, while the Kings are right behind in 2nd place. Fewer shots mean fewer scoring chances, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. Both squads excel at neutralizing power plays, with their penalty kill percentages ranking in the top 10 league-wide. The Kings have been a moneymaker for the UNDER bettor, with their games staying below 5.5 goals in 5 straight contests and 8 of their last 10. The Hurricanes aren’t far behind, with games involving them dipping below 5.5 goals in 7 of their last 10. With two of the NHL’s best defenses squaring off, expect a grind-it-out battle where scoring chances are at a premium.

#4 ASA TOP PLAY ON New York Rangers -125 or -130 over Toronto Maple Leafs, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a great spot for a home favorite that is priced very fairly and set up perfectly to dominate. The Rangers are rested and off B2B home ice losses.  The Maple Leafs are in a B2B spot and they won last night against the Avalanche even though they were heavily outshot and gave up nearly 40 shots in the game!  Toronto used their top goalie last night and that means it will be Anthony Stolarz most likely in the crease tonight for the Leafs.   Stolarz is 0-3 in his last 3 starts and has allowed 11 goals in the 3 games.  The Rangers are going with Igor Shesterkin here and he is in fantastic form and has allowed only 9 goals in his last 5 starts - an average of just 1.8 per game while Stolarz allowing 3.7 goals per game in recent starts.  The Rangers had a sub-par effort versus the Flames Monday as they were heavily outshot and now off B2B losses (including one to a tough Oilers team) which followed B2B wins, New York is primed for a big response on home ice here.  The Maple Leafs defeated the Rangers earlier this month here in New York but the Rangers outshot them 35 to 16 in that game.  Toronto enters this one off B2B wins but this followed a 1-5 stretch for the Leafs and now in a tough B2B and facing a rested and revenge-minded Rangers team, this is a very tough spot for the Maple Leafs.  The Rangers know the importance of this in the playoff picture and Shesterkin leads the way with a dominating effort in between the pipes in this one. Lay it with the Rangers money line for a Top Game

ASA NHL play on Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Over 5.5 Goals - Take the Over 5.5 Goals in tonight’s clash between the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs. These two high-octane offenses have a proven track record of lighting up the scoreboard against each other. In their most recent meeting, they combined for a whopping 11 goals, and the trend doesn’t stop there. Over the last three straight head-to-head matchups, they’ve hit 7 or more goals each time, and in 6 of their last 7 meetings, the nets have been buzzing. With Colorado’s explosive attack (averaging around 3.4 goals per game) facing Toronto’s leaky defense, and the Leafs’ potent offense (around 3.3 goals per game) testing Colorado’s blueline, expect another goal-fest. The Over is the play here.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadians, 7:07pm ET - For the Ottawa Senators, through 66 games, they’ve scored 194 goals and allowed 185 goals or 2.94 GF/GP and 2.80 GA/GP. For the Montreal Canadiens, through 66 games, they’ve scored 195 goals and allowed 214 goals: 2.95 GF/GP and 3.24 GA/GP. In a head-to-head scenario, we typically model it as each team’s offense versus the other’s defense and factor in the efficiency rates for both teams. In this matchup our model is projecting 5.88 total goals being scored. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Canadians winning both 4-1 and 5-2. In the last eight meetings one of the two teams has scored 4+ goals and all eight have finished with 5 or more total goals being scored. Ottawa has played in three straight higher scoring games with 7, 8 and 6 total goals being scored. Montreal’s last three games have finished with 4, 9 and 6 total goals.

ASA NHL top play on Tampa Bay Lighting -1.5 goals -115 vs Philadelphia – 7:07 pm ET - Tampa Bay had Andrei Vasilveskiy (2.28 GAA this season) in the starters crease at the morning skate and he gives the Lightning a big edge in goal over the Flyers. Ivan Fedotov is the starter for Philly here and he is 5-11-3 this season and Philadelphia has had some issues defensively which is part of the reason the slumping Flyers have lost 6 of 7 games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 4 of their last six and put up 6 goals three times! Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.53, Philadelphia is 24th at 2.75. Philadelphia is allowing 3.37 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.68. The key here is not just that the Lightning hold all the edges, including in current form as well as power play and penalty kill, Tampa Bay also has double revenge here! The only win that the Flyers have recently was last week's win over, you guessed it, the Lightning! Also, earlier this season the Bolts lost to Philly in the shootout here in Tampa. So, with revenge on their side and also having a stacked roster after being buyers at the trade deadline while the Flyers were sellers, Tampa is a -300 favorite on the money line logically! Where we get the value is the puck line! By laying 1.5 goals we only have to lay a -115 price on TB! 9 of the last 10 Lightning wins have been by 2 or more goals. The Flyers have 6 losses since early March and all were by at least 2 goals! This one will be too! Lay it with the Lightning goal line here at -1.5 goals for a Top Play Monday

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:07 pm ET - Boston has scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last five games and they’ve allowed 6 goals in 2 of their last five. Tampa Bay has had some issues defensively allowing 4 or more goals in four straight games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 3 of their last five and put up 6 goals twice. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.49, Boston is 25th a 2.72. Boston is allowing 3.15 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.69. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league is shots against so both should get plenty of opportunities to put shots on goal. In the last seven head-to-head meetings one of the two teams has scored 3 goals. In the last three meetings one team has put up 4 or more goals. We are betting 6 or more goals get scored in this one.

ASA play on Edmonton Oilers -140 at New Jersey Devils, 7:37 pm ET - We are not buying the Devils two recent wins, and they came against Columbus and Philadelphia who both sit below them in the standings. New Jersey now steps up to face a much better Edmonton team that is coming off a loss against Buffalo as a -180 road favorite. The Oilers have outshot their last four opponents by a combined 128/102 and two of those wins came against Montreal and Dallas. The Oilers are 9th in Goals p/game at 3.23 on the season, New Jersey is averaging 2.98. The Devils have a slight advantage defensively allowing 2.53 Goals p/game, the Oilers give up 2.94. Edmonton has the much better shots/shots allowed differential at +300 for the season compared to the Devils at +165. With two relatively even goaltenders, we like the Oilers offense in this one and the fact Edmonton is playing with revenge from a loss earlier this season to the Devils.

ASA NHL play on Detroit Red Wings -135 vs. Buffalo Sabres, 7:35pm ET - The Red Wings are in a desperate situation here coming off 6 straight losses and slipping to 12th in the Eastern Conference. Five of those six losses are excusable as they came to good teams above them in the standings. Tonight they face a Buffalo team that is 25-32 SU on the season, the 4th fewest wins on the year. Buffalo won the first meeting of the season between these two teams but the Wings have won the last two 2-1 and 6-5 in a shootout. Detroit has a clear advantage defensively allowing 3.19 goals against compared to the Sabres who rank 30th in GA/G at 3.48. Buffalo has struggled on the road with a 9-18-3 SU record away from home and are coming off a big home win over Edmonton on Monday night. In Detroit’s most recent loss they peppered Ottawa goaltender Ullmark with 49 shots but were unlucky producing just one goal. We expect the offense to have another high-volume of shot attempts tonight which will lead to a solid home win and snap this losing streak.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS (-130) Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild – 8pm ET - The situation is ripe for a shootout between these two teams in what shapes up to be a higher scoring game. The Wild are 11th defensively in goals against per game of 2.86 for the season and in recent action they have allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of their last nine games. Colorado is giving up an average of 2.95 goals per game which ranks 16th in the NHL. The Avs clearly have the better offensive number ranking 6th in total goals this season while averaging 3.36 per game. Minnesota is further down the rankings at 2.77 goals per game which ranks 25th. Colorado is coming off a game on Monday and have gone OVER in 5 of eight this season without rest. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has finished with 7 goals. The Wild have just two total goals in their last two games but they did have 68 total shots on goal and if they get 30 plus attempts here the sheer volume should result in several goals.

#3/4 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets vs San Jose Sharks, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Very interesting match-up here as San Jose is having a rough season yet they just won 6-3 at Detroit to snap the Red Wings 7-game winning streak. Ironically the Sharks now have a chance in their very next game to stop the current longest winning streak in the NHL as well and that is the 5-game run that the Blue Jackets are on. While we do expect the confidence to be up for the Sharks after that 6-goal outburst and we look for continued offensive success here, we also expect the Blue Jackets to stay hot. Columbus has scored an average of 4 goals in their current 6-1 run last 7 games. The Blue Jackets, as hot as they have been, have allowed 3 goals per game in their last 4 on home ice and they enter this game in a unique situation. Columbus is off B2B unders that each totaled 5 or less goals. Keep in mind, the season is already halfway over and the Blue Jackets have NEVER had a 3-game stretch this season without at least 1 game totaling 7 goals or more. In fact, Columbus home games have averaged 7.4 goals this season! We get value here because the Sharks trend toward lower-scoring games but this is a unique spot with San Jose off a 6-3 win and a chance to again snap the winning streak of the current hottest team in the NHL. San Jose goalie Georgiev has a 3.44 GAA this season and Columbus goalie Merzlikins has allowed 3.5 goals per start in his last 10 starts. Both of these clubs have had problems on the penalty kill this season too and the Blue Jackets power play has been solid. The goals fly here! Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here. Look for at least 7 goals in this one! Over is the play Thursday in Columbus

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Vegas Golden Knights Puck Line (-1.5 goals -105) over San Jose Sharks, Tuesday at 10:05 PM ET - Vegas is in a great spot here which is why they are a -260 favorite on the money line.  Where the value is here is with the puck line which is in the even money range on this one.  Regardless of the starting goalies here, we love the Golden Knights in this spot.  However, we will mention that the expected starters are Ilya Samsonov for Vegas and Alexandar Georgiev for the Sharks. Samsonov was in the starters' crease at the morning skate earlier today and so we expect him to get the call here. He has been absolutely fantastic with a 5-0 record in his last 5 starts and a total of only 7 goals allowed in those 5 starts!  The Sharks Georgiev, on the other hand, has continued to struggle. He has an 0-4 record in his last 4 starts and has allowed at least 4 goals in all 4 starts! San Jose is off B2B wins but this followed 8 straight losses and defeats in 11 of last 12 games.  The Sharks have averaged scoring just 2 goals in last 15 games (including the B2B wins) and just don't have the offensive production necessary to keep up with the high-flying Golden Knights.  Right now Vegas has been on a mission with wins in 12 of last 14 games including 8 of last 9!  Also, each of the last 7 wins for Vegas have come by a multi-goal margin.  Each of the last 4 Sharks home losses have come by a multi-goal margin.  The Golden Knights have scored an average of 4 goals in their last 6 road victories.  Vegas also has won the two meetings this season by a combined 13 to 6 and they won the 4 meetings last season by a combined 18 to 5.  Look for this dominating pattern to continue here.  Road team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with road favorite Vegas is the value play here.

#59/60 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals - Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Ducks are starting John Gibson in goal. He is 1-4 in his last 5 starts and has allowed at least 3 goals in each of those five games! Anaheim is off a 5-4 win at Utah in the shootout last night.  The Ducks have allowed 3.5 goals per game in their last 10 games.  Anaheim will struggle again in that department here as the Golden Knights have been red hot.  The Ducks also should score well here however as they have now won 5 of 8 road games and have averaged 3 goals scored in that 8-game stretch away from home. Vegas has won 11 of 14 games and has averaged 3.5 goals scored in going 6-1 last 7 games.  Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals per game in the last 4 games against divisional opponents and they'll be ready for the Ducks here.  What we like about Anaheim is the way they have turned things around, particularly on the road, and their goal-scoring ways continue here.  But Gibson's struggles in goal continue and Vegas (huge favorites in this game) are going to build off their 6-2 win versus Seattle as they have won 4 straight at home and 7 of 8 overall and stay hot here.  Both teams struggle on the penalty kill and the Golden Knights also have a potent power play.  The goals fly here!  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Monday in Vegas

#29/30 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - Colorado's last home game was a 5-2 loss and that was the 10th time in 12 games that a Colorado home game totaled at least 7 goals!  We don't see this strong trend ending anytime soon and certainly not tonight.  The Avalanche enter this game off an 8-2 loss following a 7-4 win!  Yes, each of Colorado's last two games reached double digits in goals.  Speaking of wildly high-scoring games like that, the only meeting so far this season between these teams was an 8-4 Vegas win in the season opener for the Avalanche!  Last season 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams reached at least the 7 goal mark as well.  This season these are two of the top power plays in the league and also two of the worst penalty killing teams!  In other words, seeing some goals from the special teams is highly likely to boost this one as well.  Vegas enters this one off B2B high-scoring wins and the Golden Knights are one of the highest scoring teams in the league.  Colorado is averaging 3.5 goals scored per game at home this season.  The goaltending has been a little better of late for the Avalanche but it has still been spotty and facing one of the tougher teams in the league to defend will not help matters tonight.  Annunen has struggled between the pipes and though Georgiev has improved recently he now has stumbled in back to back appearances with 7 goals allowed in a game and a half ice time.  That half game was in relief of Annunen Monday and he struggled.  Vegas will pressure the Avalanche plenty in this one and should score very well but Colorado at home also should be up to the task to match them with plenty of scoring of their own on home ice where they play with extra confidence in the offensive zone.  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Wednesday in Colorado.

#55/56 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Canadiens are happy to be back home after a 3-1 loss at Pittsburgh followed a 6-3 loss at Washington.  Montreal is now looking to get back to work on home ice for a key game prior to a longer road trip on deck.  From Halloween until mid-November, this is the Canadiens only home game.  Their most recent home game was an 8-2 loss.  While the chances of a Montreal sudden turnaround on defense and/or in goal has appeared highly unlikely from what we are seeing from this hockey club right now, the Canadiens had scored 3.3 goals per game in an 8-game stretch prior to this 3-game losing streak.  This included B2B wins by a combined score of 9 to 5 prior to the 8-2 home loss.  Montreal should resume those high-scoring ways as they take on a Flames team that just lost for the 5th time in 6 games and it was a loss to their biggest rival, Edmonton.  The 5 losses in this 1-5 stretch have featured a goals allowed average of 4.6 goals per loss!  Calgary, like Montreal, is having issues both defensively and in goal.  The Flames have given up at least 4 goals in each of their last 5 losses.  Calgary has scored 3.5 goals per game in their 4 games in non-Conference action this season.  East-West match-ups do tend to feature less defensive intensity than in-conference games and especially divisional games.  We look for a rather wide-open game here.  Montreal has allowed 4.7 goals per game against Western Conference foes and the Canadiens did score 5 goals in their lone win against a Western Conference team this season.  Both teams rank among the worst in the league for shots allowed per game and we expect plenty of quality scoring chances in this one.  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Tuesday in Montreal.

#55/56 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals - Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Flyers starting Samuel Ersson here and he has a 3.55 GAA this season and Philadelphia ranks among the worst teams in the league for goals allowed as they are allowing 4.4 goals per game so far this season. Ersson is off a win in his most recent start but allowed 5 goals in that one! The Bruins are going to go with little used Joonas Karpisalo in this one and he has seen little action this season which is different from last season when it was Swayman and Ullmark consistently rotating for Boston. Korpisalo has struggled in his limited action with a 4.54 GAA in his first two starts for the Bruins this season. Boston enters this one with their home games having totaled at least 7 goals in 4 of the 5 games as a host. Philadelphia enters this one on a run that has featured 6 of 8 games reaching at least the 7 goal mark! They have allowed at least 3 goals in 8 straight games! The Bruins have allowed at least 3 goals in 7 of 9 games this season. Given numbers like this it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here. Look for at least 7 goals in this one! Over is the play here.

#23/24 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals - Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Avalanche games are not only 3-0 to the over already this season, the games averaged 10 goals apiece!  Even if you eliminate empty net goals from the equation, all 3 games totaled at least 7 goals and averaged 9 goals apiece!  The Avalanche have had to pull starting goalie Georgiev in 2 of the 3 starts.  His replacement Annunen allowed 4 goals in 52 minutes of combined ice time in those 2 appearances.  Georgiev has a 6.58 GAA in his 3 starts this season!  The concerning thing for the Avalanche is that they were in a desperate situation on home ice in the most recent game as they had started the season 0-2 plus had just lost their home opener and yet they still struggled badly.  In fact, Colorado allowed 37 shots on goal in that game and got trounced 6-2 by the Islanders.  Overall, though scoring just 2 in the most recent loss, the Avalanche have been solid in the offensive zone, including on the power play, but they have been dreadful on the penalty kill and in terms of goaltending too.  Now they face a Bruins team that will be looking to respond off a 4-3 loss to Florida.  Trouble for Boston is that the 4-3 defeat was the 3rd time in 4 games this season that they have allowed at least 4 goals.   Korpisalo allowed 6 goals in his only start and Swayman allowed 4 goals in 2 of his 3 starts!  Boston, like Colorado, has been quite consistent offensively.  However, also like the Avalanche, the Bruins have been having some trouble keeping the puck out of their own net!  3 of 4 Bruins games have totaled at least 7 goals and those 3 games averaged 9 goals apiece.  Our computer math model shows the highest probability of 8 to 9 goals here and we agree with the model in this one!  Look for at least 7 in this one!  Over is the play here.

#22 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-115/-120) over Florida Panthers, Friday at 8 PM ET - This is one of the more dramatic turnarounds you will ever see in a series and we strongly feel it is not over yet!  When the Oilers were down 3-0 in these Stanley Cup Finals, they had actually outshot the Panthers in 2 of the 3 games.  They could have easily been up 2-1 in the series but instead were down 3-0.  They could have packed it in at that point and prepared for the golf course.  Instead, Edmonton roared back with an 8-1 win in Game 4 followed by a 5-3 win on the road in Game 5.  While Skinner is playing very well for the Oilers in goal, the Panthers Bobrovsky all of the sudden lost his way!  He got pulled in Game 4 and certainly did not impress in Game 5.  Edmonton now has the more confident goalie in Skinner plus the home ice edge.  The reason Florida is getting so much love in the markets is because history suggests this series was over once it reached 3-0 as teams historically just do not come back from that kind of deficit.  History suggests very few 3-0 series even make it to a Game 7 and that is what is giving the Panthers some attention here.  However, anyone who has watched the last two games knows the ice has suddenly been tilted heavily in favor of Edmonton.  The Oilers made some key in-series adjustments and the Panthers have not been able to counter that yet.  On home ice and with all the momentum and confidence on their side, the Oilers will not be denied here.  Skinner is "in the zone" while the Panthers goaltending has suddenly slipped badly the last two games.  Considering all of the above, that makes this -115 range truly a bargain price on the Oilers the way we see it!  Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one!  Home team money line is our play here as the Oilers win to complete the comeback from a 3-0 deficit and force a Game 7 in  these Stanley Cup Finals!

#16 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-135) over Florida Panthers, Thursday at 8 PM ET - At this point in the season, 100 games in when you include the regular season and now all the post-season action of both Edmonton and Florida, plenty is known about both the Oilers and Panthers.  So what we want to speak the most about here is the fantastic situational aspect.  The Oilers are down 2-0 in this series but really played well in Game 1 despite losing and then lost Game 2 despite taking an early lead.  We feel Edmonton coming back to home ice after two straight losses is going to bring forth their best game of the post-season.  The Oilers have been so strong off B2B losses.  The last 7 times Edmonton entered a game off of consecutive losses they have won the next game all 7 times with scores of 4-2, 4-0, 4-3, 6-2, 9-2, 7-4 and 5-2.  That works out to an average score of 5.6 to 2.1 so the Oilers have not just been winning in this situation, they have been dominating.  Edmonton has won 4 of last 5 games on home ice and has scored an average of 4 goals per game when at home in this post-season.  Florida, of course, is having a great post-season but they have averaged scoring only 2.4 goals in their last 5 road games.  The Oilers goalie, Skinner, has allowed a total of only 3 goals in the last two games in Edmonton.  Florida goalie Bobrovsky has been great in this post-season but Edmonton will do a better job of getting more traffic in front of the net in this one and Bobrovsky is sure to face a barrage of shots from a desperate Oilers team that will be dialed in on home ice for their strongest effort yet in this series! That makes this -135 range actually a bargain price on the Oilers the way we see it!  Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one!  Home team money line is our play here as the Oilers win to climb right back into these Stanley Cup Finals! 

#4 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Edmonton Oilers (-135) over Dallas Stars, Sunday at 8 PM ET - Edmonton has really turned this series on its head. When they were down 2-0 in Game 4 and already down 2-1 in the series, it looked like this was going to be the end once again for the Oilers who have been trying so hard to get it done while they have a generational talent like Connor McDavid. Well, there was no quit in this Edmonton team as they rallied to win that game 5 to 2 to tie the series up. Then they went down to Dallas and knocked off the Stars down in Texas by a count of 3 to 1 and the Dallas goal was a late one. The point is that Edmonton has a ton of momentum and we have seen more grit and solid defense throughout this post-season than Oilers teams of recent seasons. This truly look like a team that now can win it all. Dallas is finding that out now too as Edmonton's offensive firepower is just as potent as ever but now they have strong defensive play to match it. At the same time, Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner is on top of his game and looks so comfortable out there. When a goalie is in the zone like Skinner is now plus on home ice plus has a strong defense in front of him and a potent offense for goal support...it all adds up to a huge mental edge. Right now, Edmonton has scored 8 of the last 9 goals in this series and they have all the momentum in this series plus the home ice edge and an "in the zone" goalie. That makes this a bargain price on the Oilers the way we see it! Looks like a solid home win is on the way in this one! Home team money line is our play here as the Oilers win to advance to Stanley Cup Finals.

#9/10 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6.5 Goals +110 - Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Avalanche are down 3-1 in this series so this is it. If you look at Colorado's road games since early last month, the scores have included a 5-2 loss and a 4-3 loss in OT and 7-6 and 5-3. They also have 4 road wins in this stretch too and those scores were 5-2 and 4-3 in OT and another 5-2 and a 6-3. You notice some trends here? Goals have been the story! Colorado has scored very well on the road but has struggled to stop teams when traveling. In fact, the struggle to stop teams has included the Stars both at home and in Dallas in this series. That said, we look for the goals to fly here. The Avalanche have to go for it here down 3-1 in this series and if you look at all their wins in this post-season, the offense has fueled those victories. They have averaged 5 goals in the 5 victories! In fact, overall in this post-season, Colorado has averaged 4 goals scored per game. We just can't see Dallas slowing down in the offensive zone here either. The Stars have proven they have some match-up edges and with Nichushkin being out for the Avalanche, the edges are even a little more pronounced. There will be no quit in this Colorado team however and we see both clubs having a great shot of reaching the 3-goal mark here. Dallas has scored at least 3 goals in all the games in this series and has averaged 4 goals per game during this stretch. Based on all of the above, this is the perfect set-up for a back and forth 4-3 type affair. We expect at least 7 goals in this one and like the added value here of working with a posted total of 6.5 at plus money (+105/+110) in this one! Over is our play here

#35 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche +110 over Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - Stars off that grueling 7-game series with Vegas which just wrapped up on Sunday.  The Avalanche, on the other hand, have been off for a week as they hammered the Jets in 4 wins after dropping the first game to Winnipeg.  The Avalanche did allow too many goals in the first game of that series but that is inflating their defensive numbers.  Since losing that first game they have allowed only 2 goals per game last 4 games!  Also, the Avalanche have scored at least 5 goals in 6 straight games!  Colorado has fresh skating legs and they have the edge in the offensive zone and will push the Stars back on their heels from the drop of the puck in this one.  Last season the Stars were eliminated from the post-season by Vegas.  The Golden Knights also went on to win the Stanley Cup last year.  In other words, that victory over Vegas was a huge one for Dallas!  They got revenge and they beat the defending champs and the series took 7 games and they had to rally from a 2-0 series deficit.  When you analyze all these key factors plus the fact Dallas averaged only 2 goals in their last 6 games with Vegas while Colorado has practically been scoring at will, you can see why we like the Avalanche plenty in this spot.  Huge situational edge with the rested Avs taking advantage of a worn-out Dallas team right out of the gate in this one.  Colorado is the bet here. 

#3 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Stars -110 over Vegas Golden Knights, Friday at 10 PM ET - The Stars have won 3 straight games in this series as they look to exact revenge for getting knocked out of the post-season by the Golden Knights last season when Vegas was on their way to the Stanley Cup. The Stars have had the goalie edge in this series and, not including an empty net goal, have allowed just 2 goals in each of last 4 games! Vegas, on the other hand (and not including empty netter), have allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of the 5 games. So Dallas has had the upper hand in this series and they have all the momentum with 3 straight wins. Also, the road team had taken 6 straight games in this series (dating back to the regular season) prior to the Stars getting the win on home ice in Game 5 in Dallas! In other words, home ice has not been a big deal in meetings between these teams and Dallas has already won both meetings at Vegas in this series! The Stars had the best road record of any team in the NHL in the regular season. Now, 2-0 in the post-season on the road and Dallas has won 10 of last 11 games away from home. The Stars have scored at least 3 goals in all 10 of those wins. Now, remember what we said above about Vegas being held to just 2 goals in 4 straight games and you can see why we especially like the value with the road team in this one. Jake Oettinger has been fantastic in goal for the Stars and allowed just 2 goals in 4 straight games. The Golden Knights were riding Thompson in goal and then switched to Hill in Game 5 and lost. They are going with Hill again here and though that worked last year, Hill instead of Brossoit, it seems like the switch to Hill this season - instead of Thompson - might prove to be their undoing. Remember that Hill allowed 3 or more goals in 10 of his last 11 starts this season. Those 10 starts saw 4 goals on average and, again, the Knights have not been able to get more than 2 past Oettinger in any of the last 4 games. Dallas is the bet here.