Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Game 3 Tiebreaker is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The NBA Finals opened on June 2 in San Francisco with Boston owning this year's best postseason road record (7-2) but with Golden St being the only team yet to lose at home (9-0). The Celtics outscored the Warriors 40-16 in the final 12 minutes of Game 1, after trailing by 15 points late in the third quarter. Boston's Al Horford scored a team-high 26 points plus Brown (24 points) and reserve guard White (21 points) helped lead the Celtics in completing the most lopsided fourth quarter in NBA Finals history. All that despite Jayson Tatum, the team's leading scorer in the regular and the postseason, shooting 3 of 17 (note: he did have 13 assists, the most in any game of his career).
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06-08-22 | Phillies v. Brewers +123 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. Milwaukee entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021 and were favorites to do so again in 2022. The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The Phillies fired Joe Girardi and named Rob Thomson interim manager last Friday. Just hours after Thomson took the reins, the Phillies beat the Angels 10-0. They then completed the three-game sweep with a 9-7 Sunday win. The Brewers welcomed the Phillies for a three-game series on Tuesday, coming off losing the last THREE games of a four-game home series against the Padres.
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06-08-22 | Mariners v. Astros -136 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 6:40 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The teams play the rubber match of a this three-game series on Wednesday, with Seattle winning on Monday and Houston winning last night. With the Angels on a 13-game losing streak, the 36-20 Astros have opened up a 9 1/2-game lead in the NL West, while the 25-31 are headed for a 21st straight non-playoff season (are currently 11 games back of Houston).
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06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. Milwaukee entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021 and were favorites to do so again in 2022. The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The Phillies fired Joe Girardi and named Rob Thomson interim manager last Friday. Just hours after Thomson took the reins, the Phillies beat the Angels 10-0. They then completed the three-game sweep with a 9-7 Sunday win. The Brewers welcome the Phillies for a three-game series, coming off losing the last THREE games of a four-game home series against the Padres. Despite winning four in a row, Philadelphia's 25-29 record leaves them 11 1/2-games behind the Mets in the NL East. The Brewers had Monday off and it was probably welcome news, as Sunday's loss ended a stretch of 18 games in 17 days. They open the series 33-23, just a half-game ahead of the Cards in the NL Central.
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06-07-22 | Dodgers v. White Sox +121 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 121 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. The Dodgers saw their streak of EIGHT straight NL West titles end in 2021 (Giants won 107 games to LA's 106) but made the postseason for the NINTH consecutive season. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games over Cleveland. Los Angeles is coming off a 2-5 homestand in which its two victories were bookended by three losses to Pittsburgh and two defeats at the hands of the NL East-leading New York Mets, who rallied to split a four-game set. Still, the Dodgers are 35-19, averaging a MLB-best 5.37 RPG. also giving them MLB's best run differential mark of plus-113 runs. It's basically been two months of uninspired play by the Chicago White Sox, but manager Tony La Russa is hoping a series win at Tampa Bay over the weekend, just may be a 'spark.' Chicago is still two games under .500 at 25-27, but set a season high with 16 hits in Sunday's series-clinching 6-5 victory against Tampa Bay. Like Los Angeles, Chicago had Monday off.
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06-07-22 | Tigers v. Pirates +117 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* IL Game of the Month is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. A brief two-game IL series between the 21-33 Tigers and the 24-28 Pirates opens tonight in Pittsburgh. The Tigers have missed the postseason the last SEVEN years and are well on their way to making it EIGHT straight non-playoff seasons in 2022. The Pirates last made the playoffs in 2015, posting sub-.500 records in FIVE of the last six seasons. Pittsburgh came into the 2022 season off three losing seasons, including going 61-101 in 2021. The Pirates, much like the Tigers, seem headed for another playoff-less season. Detroit had won SEVEN of nine before getting swept by the Yankees this past weekend, getting shut out in two of the three games. As for Pittsburgh, the Tigers appear to have found a spark since bottoming out with an 18-4 loss at home to St Louis on May 22. Since then, the Pirates are 8-4 and have won THREE of four series. Tonight's starting pitchers are Tarik Skubal (4-2, 2.15 ERA) and Jose Quintana (1-2, 2.32 ERA). Skubal's first full season was 2021 and he made 31 appearances (29 starts), going 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA. However, he's been Detroit's best pitcher in 2022, as he hasn't allowed an earned run in SIX of his 10 starts this season. That said, Detroit is a modest 6-4 in his starts. Quintana has been around since 2012 and had 13-win seasons in 2016, 2018 and 2019, However, he made just 33 appearances (only 11 starts) in the 2020 and 2021 seasons combined, going 0-3 with 6.16 ERA. Quintana was brought in at least in part to add a veteran presence to the Pittsburgh rotation, but he has done MUCH more than that. He has not allowed more than three ERs in ANY of his 10 starts and has given up just four ERs over his last five starts (1.38 ERA). Here's the bottom line. Skubal is in just his second full season and is his strong start for real? Meanwhile, Quintana has had success in the past. Unlike last season, when the 77-85 Tigers owned MLB's third best moneyline record (+$2,303 at $100/game), this year's team checks in at -$696 vs the moneyline, with almost ALL of the damage coming on the road (7-18, -$629). Why are the Tigers favored? Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-22 | Mets v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* NL Total of the Month is on NYM/SD Over at 9:40 ET. The Braves were 51-53 in late-July of 2021 but went 37-20 the rest of the way and won the NL East (for the FOURTH straight season) before capturing the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. In stark contrast, New York went 22-38 down the stretch to finish in third place at 77-85, 11 1/2 games out of first place. The Mets made the 2015 World Series (lost 4-1 to KC) and made a one-game wild card appearance in 2016, but they've been playoff-less the last five years. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. Both teams are off to strong starts in 2022, as the Mets own the NL's best record (37-19), 8 1/2-games ahead of the Braves in the NL East. The Padres (33-21) welcome the Mets to San Diego just two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and currently own the NL's No. 1 wild card spot. The starters in tonight's opener will be Carlos Carrasco (6-1, 3.63 ERA) for New York and Blake Snell (0-2, 4.80 ERA) for San Dirgo. Carrasco went 60-36 for Cleveland from 2015-2018, but the previous three seasons, was just 10-16 with a 4.69 ERA. However, he has made 10 starts for the Mets this season and generally has looked sharp. Snell hasn't been the same pitcher ever since Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. With the Rays leading 1–0 with one out, Snell was pulled by Kevin Cash for Nick Anderson in the 6th inning after pitching a shutout with two hits and nine strikeouts. The Dodgers then scored two runs in that inning and would go on to win the game 3–1 and the World Series for the first time since 1988. Snell opened the 2022 season on the injured list with a strained adductor, the same problem he had during the 2021 season. This marks just his fourth start of 2022 and the 'jury is still out' on this former Cy Young winner. Carrasco has pitched 13 seasons in the major leagues, spanning 264 games and 217 starts but has never faced the San Diego Padres. That changes tonight but note that while he has a 2.78 ERA and a BAA of .233 in six home starts, his road ERA is 5.06 and his BAA is .287 in four road starts. The good news for New York fans is that he takes the mound for a team batting a MLB-best .264, while averaging 5.11 RPG (3rd-best). As noted above, Snell remains a question mark and I'll play the OVER in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the GS Warriors at 8:00 ET. The Celtics outscored the Warriors 40-16 in the final 12 minutes of Game 1, after trailing by 15 points late in the third quarter. Boston's Al Horford, who turned 26 on Friday, celebrated his birthday a day early by scoring a team-high 26 points. The Celtics rode Horford plus Brown (24 points) and reserve guard White (21 points) to complete the most lopsided fourth quarter in NBA Finals history (won 120-108). All this despite Jayson Tatum, the team's leading scorer in the regular and the postseason, shooting 3 of 17 (note: he did have 13 assists, the most in any game of his career). Curry led Golden St with 34 points, Wiggins had 20 points and Thompson a modest 15. However, Green shot just 2 of 12 (4 points / 11 rebounds / 5 assist) and Poole made only 2 of 7 shots for nine points. The Warriors small-ball lineup, one of the most feared in the NBA, just fell apart in the 4th quarter. It was not only Golden St's first home loss of this postseason (had opened 9-0) but the Warriors had won 13 straight playoff series openers at home, the third-longest streak in NBA history. Boston is now 8-2 away from home this postseason, including three wins at Miami in the Eastern Conference finals and a Game 6 victory at defending-champion Milwaukee that kept the Celtics alive in the conference semifinals. That said, Steve Kerr's team certainly doesn't envision falling behind 2-0 in the series. However, the collapse in Game 1 ramps up the importance of Sunday's game. "It's a different feeling," Kerr said. "Obviously you go into Game 2 with more of a sense of desperation." This is the Warriors' SIXTH trip to the NBA Finals in eight years, and Curry, Thompson and Green are hardly surrendering after one setback. "It's just nothing to panic about," Green said. "It's the first team to win four games, not the first to win one." I couldn't agree more. Golden St did EXACTLY what it wanted in Game 1, UNTIL the 4th quarter. Now, it's "put up or shut up" time. Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-22 | Padres v. Brewers -120 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 2:10 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. Milwaukee entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021 and were favorites to do so again in 2022. The Padres and Brewers opened a four-game series in Milwaukee on Thursday, with the Brewers rallying to win 5-4 with four runs in the ninth inning off Padres closer Taylor Rogers. However, after consecutive shutout losses (San Diego won 7-0 on Friday and 4-0 on Saturday), the Brewers are looking to rediscover their offense and salvage a split against the Padres on Sunday. The Padres enter Sunday's game 32-21 (three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West), while the Brewers' 33-22 record gives them a 1 1/2-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central.
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06-05-22 | Diamondbacks -135 v. Pirates | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Arz D'backs at 1:35 ET. The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941). The Pirates last made the playoffs in 2015, posting sub-.500 records in FIVE of the last six seasons. Pittsburgh came into the 2022 season off three losing seasons, including going 61-101 in 2021. Arizona has greatly improved from 2021, checking in at 26-28, while the Pirates are 23-28. Arizona hit five HRs in an 8-6 win on Friday, while Jack Suwinski hit a walk-off, two-run HR in Pittsburgh's 2-1 victory on Saturday.
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06-04-22 | White Sox v. Rays -114 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the TB Rays at 4:10 ET. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. The White Sox then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays entered the current season off three straight postseason appearances (the team has won the AL East in both 2020 and 2021). Both teams were expected to be division and/or postseason contenders in 2022. So far, only Tampa Bay is holding up its end. After 6-2 start, the White Sox have been hovering around the .500 mark for most of the season and enter this game having lost SIX of seven, including their FOURTH straight defeat last night in the first of this three-game series with the Rays. Friday's 6-3 loss dropped Chicago to 23-27, SIX games behind the Twins in the AL Central. Tampa's win was its THIRD straight and at 31-21, while the Rays are SIX games behind the Yankees in the AL East, they currently own the AL's No. 1 wild card spot. Dylan Cease (4-2, 3.69 ERA) will get the ball for Chicago, while Tampa Bay counters with Drew Rasmussen (5-2, 3.47 ERA). Cease had a breakout season in 2021, going 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA. He has made 10 starts in 2022 and while the White Sox are 7-3 in those starts, let me point out something. He lasted just four innings (allowed six ERs) on May 12, then bounced back by pitching 5.2 scoreless innings in his next start. However, he followed that by lasting only THREE innings on May 24th, allowing seven ERs. Again, he bounced in his last outing (May 29) by allowing one ER in seven innings. Seems to me like he's tracking for a poor effort here. Rasmussen overcame two Tommy John surgeries to secure a spot in the Rays' starting rotation late last season and finished it strong. He has made 10 starts in 2022 and the Rays are 8-2 in those starts. I will note that he's off his worst start of the season his last time out, allowing five ERs in only three innings of work in a 9-5 loss at Texas. That said, that's the ONLY time this season he has allowed more than three ERs in a start (note: he's allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN starts). Taking an even closer look, Rasmussen is 3-0 in his five home starts this season (Rays are 5-0!), posting a 2.10 ERA while holding opponents to a .194 BAA. I'm "all over" Rasmussen and the Rays! Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-22 | Astros -123 v. Royals | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs in 2022.The KC Royals began the current season having missed the postseason in each of the previous SIX years, after making back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost) and 2015 (won). The Astros won 11 in a row in early May to reach 22-11 but then went 7-7 over their next 14 games, before winning their last four games. The good news for Houston fans is that the Angels have lost EIGHT in a row and the Astros enter this weekend 6 1/2-games ahead of LA in the division. The Kansas City Royals return home from a nine-game road trip, in which they finished 2-7. They have lost 11 of 13 overall and at 16-33, own MLB's worst record. |
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06-03-22 | Mariners -109 v. Rangers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Mariners at 8:05 ET. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The Rangers appeared in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) but continued to be competitive, making the playoffs in THREE of the next five seasons. However, it's been FIVE consecutive losing seasons for Texas since 2017. The Rangers were just 60-102 (.370) in 2021. The two AL West rivals begin a three-game series tonight in Texas, with the 24-26 Rangers off to a slightly better start in 2022 than the 22-29 Mariners. The teams met back in April, with Seattle taking two of three at home.
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06-03-22 | Guardians -130 v. Orioles | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* AL Pitching Mismatch of the Week is on the Cle Guardians at 7:05 ET. Cleveland began a new era in 2022 (no longer the Indians, now the Guardians). Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021. The Baltimore Orioles have missed the postseason in each of the last FIVE years, losing 100-plus games in THREE of the four full seasons. The22-24 Guardians begin a three-game series in Baltimore tonight to take on the 22-31 Orioles. The teams are meeting for the first time this season. Cleveland is coming off a three-game home sweep of KC (outscored the Royals 19-6) and would like to make it "deja vu all over again" here vs the Orioles Shane Bieber (2-3, 3.19 ERA) will get the nod for Cleveland, while Baltimore counters with Bruce Zimmermann (2-3, 4.53 ERA). Bieber was a rookie in 2018 and in 2019 went 15-8 and was the All-Star Game's MVP. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season he went 8-1 in 12 starts (team was 10-2), leading the AL in wins, ERA (1.63) and Ks (122), while posting an 0.87 WHIP and .167 BAA. He won the AL's Cy Young award. Bieber missed a chunk of the 2021 season (7-4 with a 3.17 ERA but 134 Ks in 96.2 IP) with a strained throwing shoulder. He was expected to be back at full strength this season. He seems to be hitting his stride heading into this start against the Orioles. He posted a 2.45 ERA in five April but opened May by allowing seven ERs in just 3.1 innings vs Toronto on the 7th. However, over his last three starts, he's allowed just four ERs over 21 innings (1.71 ERA) with a 22-5 KW ratio. Zimmermann has made only 26 appearances in his short career (24 starts), going 6-8 with a 4.98 ERA, 1,40 WHIO and a BAA of .285. He's made 10 starts in 2022 but after posting a 1.20 ERA in his first three starts, his ERA over his last seven starts is 5.89 (Orioles are 2-5). He has gone almost a month since his last victory and he has never faced Cleveland in his short career. Getting back to Bieber, he hasn't allowed a run across 17 innings while racking up a 2-0 record and 26 strikeouts without issuing a walk! The Cleveland pitching staff is rounding into form, as the Guardians have gone FIVE games without giving up more than three runs. With Cleveland's ace on the mound, the Guardians get win No. 1 in this three-game series. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Year is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The Celtics closed the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games to earn the East's No. 2 at 51-31 (won tiebreakers over Milwaukee and Philadelphia, which both finished 51-31, as well). Boston opened the playoffs with a 4-0 "revenge" sweep of Brooklyn but has then had its last two series "go the distance." The Celtics needed to win Game 6 in Milwaukee and then Game 7 at home to eliminate the defending NBA champion Bucks in the second round and then in the conference finals, lost Game 6 at home against the top-seeded Heat, before winning Game 7 in Miami. The Warriors had to play their final 12 games of the regular season without Curry but entered the playoffs on a five-game winning streak and as the West's No. 3 seed. Golden St made short work of Denver, taking the series 4-1 with the lone loss coming at Denver in Game 4, when the Nuggets avoided the sweep. Then came the second-seeded Grizzlies, who pushed the Warriors to six games. Dallas, not top-seeded Phoenix, was Golden St's opponent in the conference finals. That series went similarly to the team's opening round series vs Denver. The Warriors opened a 3-0 lead, lost Game 4 in Dallas (as the Mavs avoided a sweep), before closing out the series with a Game 5 win. The Celtics own 17 NBA titles, tied with the Lakers, for the most in NBA history. However, Boston's last championship came back in 2008 and its last appearance in the NBA Finals was in 2010. Boston had lost in its last FOUR visits to the Eastern Conference finals, before winning Sunday's Game 7 in Miami. Tatum (27.0-6.7-5.9) has had a terrific postseason so far, while Brown (22.9 & 6.8) has done his part. PG Smart, the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year, had missed two games (midfoot sprain) but checks in averaging 15.5-4.5-6.2 in the playoffs. Center Al Horford (who turns 36 on Friday) has averaged 11.9 & 9.6 this postseason and will be playing in his first Finals after playing an NBA-record 141 playoff games without an appearance in the NBA Finals. The Warriors small-ball lineup of guards Stephen Curry (25.9-4.9-6.2), Klay Thompson (19.8 & 4.3) and Jordan Poole (18.4 & 4.5 APG) plus SF Andrew Wiggins (15.8 & 7.0) and PF Draymond Green (8.7-6.9-6.3) is one of the most feared in the NBA. However, don't overlook Golden State center Kevon Looney. He was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis, and he pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then started all five games against Dallas, averaging 10.6 & 10.6. Looney had 21 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2 for just his second career postseason double-double. Looney credits a lack of playing time with keeping him fresh for the playoffs. He played the fewest minutes in the NBA this season (1,732) among all players with 60 or more starts (he made 80). Boston has this year's best postseason road record (7-2) but Golden St is the only team yet to lose at home, going 9-0. The series could be determined by shooting percentages, as it pits the long-range marksmanship of Golden State's Curry and Klay Thompson against Boston's suffocating perimeter defense featuring Smart and Brown. The Warriors rank third in the NBA in the postseason in field-goal percentage (49.3 percent) and fourth in three-point percentage (37.9 percent). They'll be up against a Celtics defense that ranks second in both categories (43.3 percent and 31.7 percent, respectively). The Game 1 winner? I'm "all over" the Warriors, whose players enter the series with a total of 123 games of Finals experience compared to the Celtics' ZERO! Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-22 | Padres v. Brewers -102 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. Milwaukee entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021 and were favorites to do so again in 2022. The Padres open a four-game series against the host Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday in hopes of igniting a sluggish offense. San Diego had extended its winning streak to a season-high five games by capturing the opener of a three-game home series vs Milwaukee back on May 23 but the Padres have followed that up by scoring a combined 19 runs in the eight games since. They have lost SIX of the eight to enter this series 30-20, three games behind the Dodgers in the NL West (SD currently owns the No. 1 NL wild card spot). The Brewers had won FOUR consecutive series from May 14-25, but have split back-to-back series since then. The 32-20 Brewers own a two-game lead over the Cards in the NL Central. Sean Manaea (2-3, 4.02 ERA) will get the nod for San Diego in tonight's opener, while the Brewers will counter with Adrian Houser (3-5, 3.69) Manaea had his moments with Oakland but was never really able to put together a full season. He opened 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA for the Padres but he's 0-2 (team is 2-4) over his last six starts, with a 4.60 ERA. He did not pitch in San Diego's previous series against Milwaukee. He lost his lone career encounter versus the Brewers after allowing five runs on six hits -- including two HRs -- in seven innings in a June 2016 game while pitching for the Oakland Athletics. Houser was just 7-13 (4.13 ERA) in his first four years with Milwaukee, before going 10- 6 with a 3.22 ERA in 2021. The Brewers went 18-8 in his 26 starts, giving Houser MLB's 11th-best moneyline record (+$793 at $100/game). Houser has made nine starts in 2022 and despite a respectable 3.69 ERA, the Brewers are just 3-6. However, here's the catch. He's been brutal in five road outings (5.32 ERA / .281 BAA) but in four starts at home, his ERA is 1.99 and his BAA is .200. Houser received a no-decision in his most recent meeting with San Diego, yielding one run on three hits in six innings on May 23. He is 0-1 with a 1.88 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) vs the Padres. Houser can be trusted at home, especially against a San Diego team that's in a hitting slump (2.38 RPG its last eight). Trust Manaea? Not I. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-22 | Giants v. Marlins -125 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Week is on the Mia Marlins at 6:40 ET. The 2021 Giants surprised all by winning a MLB-best 107 games last season, ending the Dodgers' run of eight straight NL West titles. However, they lost to the Dodgers in an NLDS matchup. The Marlins joined the National League in 1993 and entering the COVID-shortened season of 2020, had made the postseason just TWICE. However, the Marlins would capture the World Series each time, in 1997 over the Indians and in 2003 over the Yankees. The Marlins overcame all sorts of team COVID issues to end a 16-year postseason drought in 2020 but the 2021 team finished 67-95. The 27-22 Giants will open a four-games series tonight in Miami against the 20-28 Marlins. San Francisco sits in third-place in the NL West, 2 1/2-games behind the Padres and 5 1/2-games behind the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Marlins may already be out of postseason hopes, as they are already 13 games behind the first-place Mets. That said, the Marlins are favored in this game. Here's two reasons. Note that while the Giants are five games over .500, their run differential is plus-21. Meanwhile, despite a record of eight games below .500, Miami's run differential is almost the same (plus-16). I will also note that after averaging just three runs per contest in losing EIGHT of 10 games (Miami was only 7-19 in May), the Marlins scored 26 runs while splitting a doubleheader with the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday in Denver (won 14-1 and lost 13-12, with a combined 33 hits!). However, the key to Miami being favored is the pitching matchup, which features Alex Wood (3-4, 4.81 ERA) and Sandy Alcantara (5-2, 2.00 ERA). Wood has been around since 2013 and had that memorable 2017 with the Dodgers, going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA. He joined the Giants last season and was a solid member of the team's rotation, going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts (Giants went 19-7!). Wood has faced San Diego 11 times in his career and while he's 4-2 and his teams are 5-6, he's posted a solid ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.19. Wood owns a 4.81 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and a BAA of .289 in his nine 2022 starts. His career numbers in those categories are 3.55, 1.23 and .250. His ERA in five May starts was 5.32. Alacantara's MLB debut came back in 2017 and entered this season just 20-34, despite a respectable 3.48 ERA. However, he's risen to be Miami's ace. He owned a 1.78 ERA in April and it was 2.13 in May. He enters this game having pitched 32 innings over his last four starts (one CG, two 8-inning efforts and a 7-inning start), going 3-0 with Miami winning all four. His ERA in that streak is 0.84 and he owns a 32-6 KW ratio. Paraphrasing a classic political line, "It's the pitching, stupid!" Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-22 | Rays -125 v. Rangers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 8:05 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays won the AL East the last two years and entered 2022 off three consecutive playoff appearances. The Rays completed a four-game home series with the Yankees this past weekend and after losing the first two, rebounded to win on both Saturday and Sunday to earn a split. The Rays opened the current week with a four-game series in Arlington against the Rangers and have lost each of the first two. The 28-21 Rays have fallen a half-game back of the 28-20 Jays in the AL East, as both team 'chase the 34-15 Yankees. The Rangers appeared in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) but continued to be competitive, making the playoffs in THREE of the next five seasons. However, it's been FIVE consecutive losing seasons for Texas since 2017. The Rangers were just 60-102 (.370) in 2021, so it's fair to say that they are an improved team in 2022, as they check in at 24-24 (.478), after winning Monday and Tuesday. However, I doubt anyone sees the Rangers as a serious postseason contender.
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06-01-22 | Twins -115 v. Tigers | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020. However, Minnesota has rebounded impressively in 2022 and will go for a split of its four-game series Wednesday night in Detroit against the Tigers. Minnesota is 30-21, FIVE games ahead of the White Sox, who last year won the AL Central, finishing 20 games better than the Twins. The Tigers have missed the postseason the last SEVEN years and at 19-30, are well on their way to making it EIGHT straight non-playoff seasons. Bailey Ober (1-1, 3.25 ERA) will get the starting nod for Minnesota, while Detroit counters with Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.44 ERA). Ober made 20 starts as a rookie in 2021, going 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA (Twins were 12-8 in his starts). He's made just six starts in 2022, as he missed most of May with a strained right groin. However, after allowing four ERs in his season debut, he allowed just six ERs in over his last five starts, posting a 2.49 ERA. Skubal's first full season was 2021 and he made 31 appearances (29 starts), going 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA. However, he's been Detroit's best pitcher in 2022, as he hasn't allowed an earned run in FIVE of his nine starts this season. That said, Detroit just 5-4 in his starts. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-22 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -123 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET. The Blue Jays missed a wild card spot by ONE game in 2021 but were a 'sexy' preseason pick to best the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees in the brutally tough AL East in 2022. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games over Cleveland. The two teams opened a three-game series Tuesday in Toronto, with the Blue Jays winning 6-5. It was Toronto's SIXTH straight win, as the Jays improved to 28-20. They moved past the Rays in the AL East by a half-game but still trail the 1st-place Yankees by 5 1/2-games. The loss dropped the White Sox below .500 (23-24) and they sit FIVE games behind Minnesota in the AL Central (note: Chicago won 20 games more than Minnesota in 2021!).
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05-31-22 | Padres v. Cardinals -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The StL Cards have been a postseason regular this century, making the playoffs 15 times since 2000. San Diego opened a three-game series in St Louis on Memorial Day, sporting a 30-17 record. The Padres opened the season just 5-5 but it's been a steady climb since, as they were 25-12 since that .500 start. The Padres are stuck in the NL West and began the week three games back of the 33-14 Dodgers. The Cards opened the series 26-21, 3 1/2-games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers. If the season ended on Memorial Day, the Padres would own the NL's No. 1 wild card spot and the Cards the No. 2 spot. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +105 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Arz D'backs at 8:10 ET. (This side play is listed as "action"). The 2021 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. However, the Braves fell to 5-6 on the season with a 2-1 loss at SD back on April 17 and have yet to climb back to .500. They will open this three-game series in Arizona against the D'backs at 23-25, 8 1/2-games behind the NY Mets in the NL East. The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941). However, the D'backs are 23-26 here in 2022 and while the Dodgers are not 'looking over their shoulders' (see below) in the NL West (D'backs are 11 games out of first place), Arizona owns a winning percentage of .469 (up from .321 last season) and is up $293 in the moneyline standings, after last season's 'nightmare' finish (see above).
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05-30-22 | Rays -126 v. Rangers | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 8:05 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays won the AL East the last two years and entered 2022 off three consecutive playoff appearances. The Rays just completed a four-game home series with the Yankees and after losing the first two, rebounded to win on both Saturday and Sunday to earn a split. The Rays head to Arlington for a four-game series with the Texas Rangers, 4 1/2-games behind the first place Yankees and also just ONE game ahead of the Jays, who have won FIVE in a row. The Rangers appeared in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) but continued to be competitive, making the playoffs in THREE of the next five seasons. However, it's been FIVE consecutive losing seasons for Texas since 2017. The Rangers were just 60-102 (.370) in 2021, so it's fair to say that they are an improved team in 2022, as they check in at 22-24 (.478), although I doubt anyone sees the Rangers as a series postseason contender.
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05-30-22 | Padres +100 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the SD Padres at 2:15 ET. (This side play is "action"). The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The StL Cards have been a postseason regular this century, making the playoffs 15 times since 2000. San Diego opens a three-game series in St Louis on Memorial Day, sporting a 30-17 record. The Padres opened the season just 5-5 but it's been a steady climb since, as they've gone 25-12 since that .500 start. The Padres are stuck in the NL West and are three games back of the 33-14 Dodgers, who own MLB's best record. The Cards have been steady in 2022 and open the series 26-21, 3 1/2-games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers. If the season ended today, the Padres would own the NL's No. 1 wild card spot and the Cards the No. 2 spot.
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Tiebreaker is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. The Miami Heat lost Games 4 and 5 in the Eastern Conference finals, getting held to just 82 and 80 points. However, with the Miami Heat facing elimination in Game 6 at Boston, the top-seeded Heat won 111-103. Jimmy Butler (26.9-7.3-4.8 this postseason), who had scored just 27 points over the previous three games, put on a show for the ages. He set a personal playoff high with 47 points and also contributed nine rebounds, eight assists and four steals. It Was his fourth, 40-point game of the 2022 playoffs and the second of this series (he had 41 in Game 1). Butler made just 7 of 32 shots in Games 4 and 5, totaling only 19 points. Starting guards Lowry (1 of 12) and Strus (0 of 16) had been just AWFUL in the back-to-back losses, but Lowry had 18 points and 10 assists in Game 6, while Strus had 13 points. Tatum (27.1-6.5-5.9 this postseason) had 30 & 9 in Game 6, while Brown (22.9 & 6.8) added 20-6-5. PG Smart (14.9-4.2-6.3), who has struggled with a midfoot sprain this postseason, had 14-4-3, making only 4 of 15 shots.
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05-29-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -117 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels at 4:07 ET.
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05-29-22 | Yankees +121 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
The second pick of my STP is a 9* on the NY Yankees at 1:40 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays lost the first two games of their four-game home series against the NY Yankee, 7-2 and 2-0. Nestor Cortes allowed just four hits and one run over eight innings in Thursday's 7-2 win and then Jameson Taillon faced just one batter over the minimum, allowing two hits and no walks over eight innings in Friday's 2-0 win. The Yankees became the first club to post consecutive eight-inning outings by a starter and with their fourth straight win, moved to 20 games over .500 at 33-13. Tampa Bay, which has won the AL East in each of the last two seasons, fell to 26-19, 6 1/2-games behind New York.
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05-29-22 | Rockies +105 v. Nationals | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The first pick of my STP is a 9* on the Col Rockies at 1:35 ET. The 21-25 Rockies will try to earn a split of their four-game series against the 17-31 Nationals on Sunday afternoon. Washington won 7-3 on Thursday and then after Friday's game was postponed, the teams played a split doubleheader Saturday, with the Nationals taking the first game 13-7 and the Rockies winning the nightcap, 3-2. The starting pitchers will be Kyle Freeland (1-4, 4.60 ERA) and Josiah Gray (4-4, 5.44 ERA).
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05-28-22 | Astros -119 v. Mariners | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Astros at 10:10 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The two NL West rivals (?) opened a three-game series last night in Seattle, with Flexen (7 IP / 1 ER) outpitching Verlander (6 IP / 6 ERs) in a 6-1 Seattle win. The teams play again Saturday with Houston sporting a 27-19 record and Seattle a 19-27 one (that's a 10-game gap!).
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05-28-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -109 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Angels at 10:07 ET. The Blue Jays missed a wild card spot by ONE game in 2021 but were a 'sexy' preseason pick to best the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees in the brutally tough AL East in 2022. The Angels are coming off a 77-85 season and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). The Jays and Angels opened a four-game series Thursday night in Anaheim against the Angels but while Toronto was just 23-20, 7 1/2-games behind the NY Yankees in the AL East, the Angels checked in at 27-18, just TWO games behind the Astros in the AL West.
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05-28-22 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division O/U Game of the Year (AL East) is on the NYY/TB Over at 4:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays have been shut down at home in the first two games of their four-game home series against the NY Yankees, losing 7-2 and 2-0. Nestor Cortes allowed just four hits and one run over eight innings in Thursday's 7-2 win and then Jameson Taillon faced just one batter over the minimum, allowing two hits and no walks over eight innings in Friday's 2-0 win. The Yankees became the first club to post consecutive eight-inning outings by a starter and with their fourth straight win, have moved to 20 games over .500 at 33-13. New York owns MLB's best record and is currently 6 1/2-games better than 26-19 Tampa Bay, which has won the AL East in each of the last two seasons. Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.31 ERA) will start on Saturday for New York, while Tampa Bay counters with Corey Kluber (1-2, 4.42 ERA). Cole allowed five runs and seven hits in eight innings against the Baltimore Orioles this past Monday. Baltimore reached Cole for four runs in the fourth inning, turning a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 advantage in what would be a 6-4 Baltimore win. Cole was saddled with his first loss of the season. Kluber (1-2, 4.42) is a two-time Cy Young Award winner who signed a one-year deal with New York last season and went 5-3 with a 3.83 ERA across 16 starts in his lone season in the Bronx. Kluber has been excellent against his 2021 club, as over eight starts, he sports a 5-2 mark with a 2.51 ERA. However, Kluber has lasted just 18 innings in four May starts, allowing 12 ERs (6.00 ERA), with batters hitting .303 against him. Then there is Cole, who is just 1-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rays. The Rays have scored just TWO runs in the first two games on only EIGHT hits but should "get something going" here vs Cole. As for Kluber, he is NOT the pitcher he once was. 'Low' total means this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-22 | Blue Jays -109 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 9:38 ET. The Blue Jays missed a wild card spot by ONE game in 2021 but were a 'sexy' preseason pick to best the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees in the brutally tough AL East in 2022. The Angels are coming off a 77-85 season and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). The Jays opened a four-game series last night in Anaheim against the Angels but while Toronto was just 23-20, 7 1/2-games behind the NY Yankees in the AL East, the Angels checked in at 27-18, just TWO games behind the Astros in the AL West.
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. The Miami Heat (the East's No. 1 seed) took the floor in Boston for Game 4 with a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but return to Boston tonight for Game 6 on the brink of elimination. The Celtics routed the Heat 102-82 in Game 4 and then took a 3-2 lead in the series with another impressive win in Game 5 at Miami, 93-80. Both teams have dealt with nagging injuries but these last two games, the Mavs have gotten the worst of it plus have just simply been plain 'offensive' on that end of the court. Jimmy Butler, Miami's best player, has made just 7 of 32 shots in Games 4 and 5, totaling only 19 points. Starting guards Lowry (1 of 12) and Strus (0 of 16) have been just AWFUL in the back-to-back losses. To add insult to injury, NBA Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (groin) has sat out the last two games with a groin injury. Boton's been led this postseason by Tatum (26.9-6.3-6.0), Brown (23.1 & 6.9), Smart (15.0-4.2-6.5) and the surprising play of veteran center Horford (12.9 & 9.3). The Celtics have to 'LOVE' the situation that they are in, but nobody associated with the Celtics is ready to celebrate. The franchise has lost in its last FOUR visits to the Eastern Conference finals and on two of the occasions, they have let a 3-2 lead slip away. The Celtics would love to close out the Heat here, avoiding a Game 7 in Miami, as the Warriors have already clinched the West and are waiting for an opponent in the NBA Finals, which will begin June 2. "It's an elimination game, to have it on our home court is an advantage," Boston head coach Ime Udoka said. "They beat us here already. So we have to come out with the same urgency after these last two wins and try to put it away. Miami has listed Lowry (left hamstring), Strus (right hamstring), Gabe Vincent (left hamstring) and P.J. Tucker (left knee) as questionable. That said, expect most if not all of them to play, plus Herro has been cleared to play. Then there is Jimmy Butler, who prior to the last two games, has been one of the 2022 NBA playoffs' best players. When is the last time you've seen a No. 1 seed as this kind of an underdog in the playoffs? I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-22 | Phillies v. Mets -134 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
My 8* Division Dominator is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. This side play is "action" (see below). The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The New York Mets contended in the NL East for most of the season but went 22-38 down the stretch to finish in third place at 77-85, 11 1/2 games out of first place. The Mets made the 2015 World Series (lost 4-1 to KC) and made a one-game wild card appearance in 2016, but they've been playoff-less the last five years. The NL East rivals open a three-game series Friday at Citi Field with New York leading the division with a 29-17 record, 7 1/2-games better than the 21-24 Phillies and Braves. |
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05-26-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on Tex/Oak Over at 9:40 ET.
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05-26-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers and St Louis Cardinals split a four-game series in Milwaukee earlier this season and will resume their battle for National League Central superiority Thursday night while opening a four-game series in St Louis. Milwaukee entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. As for St Louis, the Cards have been a postseason regular this century, making the playoffs 15 times since 2000 (was a wild card in 2021). The 28-16 Brewers arrive in Busch Stadium with a 3 1/2-game lead over the second-place Cardinals, who check in at 24-19. Milwaukee will start Eric Lauer (4-1, 2.16 ERA) in the series opener, while the Cardinals will counter with Adam Wainwright (5-3, 2.87 ERA),
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05-26-22 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My NL 10* O/U Game of the Month is on Col/Was Over at 7:05 ET. The Colorado Rockies were 15-10 after taking two of three games against the visiting Nationals from May 3-5, but they have lost their last SIX series, going 5-13 in that span to fall to 20-23. Colorado is now NINE games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Washington Nationals opened the 2022 season losing their first three games to the Mets and have gradually fallen further and further under .500. Washington opens this four-game home series with the Rockies 15-30, 13 1/2-games behind the Mets in the NL East. Washington has gone 6-14 since it last won consecutive games on May 1 and 3, The Rockies and Nationals are each turning to a struggling starting pitcher on Thursday. German Marquez (1-4, 6.14 ERA) gets the nod for Colorado and Patrick Corbin (0-7, 6.60 ERA) for Washington. Marquez is coming off allowing five runs (four earned) on 11 hits with seven strikeouts and a walk in six innings during a 5-1 loss to the New York Mets on Saturday. He's got a 1.59 WHIP and opponents are batting .315 against him in eight 2022 starts. Marquez was pummeled by the Nationals in his last outing against them, allowing seven runs on 10 hits (including two HRs), in just five innings of a 10-2 loss on May 3. That's hardly news, as Marquez owns an 8.44 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in six starts spanning 32 innings against the Nats. Washington's Patrick Corbin (0-7, 6.60 ERA) is having a terrible season, adding a 1.69 WHIP and an opponents' BAA of .295 to his winless season to-date (team is 0-9 in his starts) to that 'ugly' ERA. He is no stranger to the Rockies. as Corbin spent six seasons with Arizona. He's made 25 career starts vs Colorado, posting a 4.51 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Just hard to see how this game stays under. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Finals Game of the Year is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. Boston's Tatum, who scored just 10 points in Game 3 (was 3 of 14 from the floor), rebounded to score 31 points but Jaylen Brown (off a career-best 40-point effort in Game 3) made just 5 of 20 shots for 12 points. Was Boston's defense the reason for Miami's poor shooting, or did Miami just 'stink out the joint?' Boston shot just 39.7% in Game 4, including 8 of 34 on three-pointers. Teams that shoot that poorly, rarely (if ever) win a game like that by 20 points. We won't know which players will be available until game-time but note that Miami was 7-0 SU at home this postseason, before losing Game 2 at home in this series. This morning, the Heat were listed as a home dog and it's noteworthy the Heat have been favored in 35 of their last 36 home games entering Wednesday, AND Miami is 4-1 outright as a home underdog this season. The Heat take a 3-2 lead with a "W' and it's "back to Boston" for Game 6. Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-22 | Phillies v. Braves -137 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The 2021 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The NL East rivals opened a four-games series in Atlanta on Monday. Both owned 19-22 records, EIGHT games behind the Mets in the division. Philadelphia 7-3 on Monday but Atlanta bounced back with a 7-6 win last night. That leaves the teams right where they started on Monday (both are now 20-23), as they get set for the third game of the series. The Mets remain EIGHT game ahead of both teams, atop the NL East.
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05-25-22 | Brewers v. Padres -119 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. Milwaukee was a preseason favorite to win its divisions again in 2022. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The teams opened a three-game series Monday in San Diego, with the Padres coming away with a 3-2 win in 10 innings. The Brewers bounced back last night with a 4-1 victory. The Brewers are on an 11-game road trip, as they play the rubber match of this series on Wednesday afternoon. The 27-16 Brewers are three games ahead of the Cards in the NL Central, while the Padres are now 28-15, falling 1 1/2-games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Aaron Ashby (0-3, 3.49 ERA) will start for the Brewers against the Padres' Yu Darvish (4-1, 3.91 ERA). Ashby made13 appearances (four starts) in 2021, pitching a modest 31.2 innings. He's made nine appearances in 2022 but just THREE have been starts. He's 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in 13.2 innings during those contests (Phillies are 2-1). The veteran Darvish opened the season with six scoreless innings, taking a no-decision in a 4-2 team loss. He then got just FIVE outs in his second start, allowing nine ERs. However, over his last six starts, he's 4-0 and the Padres 6-0 with Darvish posting a 2.58 ERA. |
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05-24-22 | Brewers -129 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 9:40 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. Milwaukee was a preseason favorite to win its divisions again in 2022. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The teams opened a three-game series last night in San Diego, with the Padres coming away with 3-2 win in 10 innings. It was the first contest of an 11-game road trip for the Brewers, who lost for just the FOURTH time in their last 12 games. It was the Padres' FIFTH straight win and the team's seventh win in eight games. The 26-16 Brewers are 26-16 (two games ahead of the Cards in the NL Central), while the Padres are now 28-14, closing within a half-game of the Dodgers in the NL West.
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Finals O/U Game of the Year is on G St/Dal Over at 9:00 ET. The Golden State Warriors have won NINE consecutive games in the Western Conference finals, after a 109-100 win over Dallas in Game 3. The Warriors haven't lost in the West finals since erasing a 3-2 deficit to Houston in 2018, when they won the last of their three titles in four years by beating Cleveland in the NBA Finals. Golden State swept Portland for a fifth consecutive trip to the Finals in 2019 before losing in six games to Toronto. The Warriors can make it an even 10 straight wins, eliminate Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks and return to the NBA Finals after three years away with a victory in Game 4 in Dallas on Tuesday night. Golden State looks to become the first team since Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls to make SIX trips to the NBA Finals over an eight-year. The Warriors small-ball lineup of Stephen Curry (27.1-5.1-5.9), Klay Thompson (19.5 & 4.6), Jordan Poole (18.9 & 4.4 APG), Andrew Wiggins (15.9 & 6.9) and Draymond Green (8.0-7.1-6.1) is one of the most feared in the NBA. Then there is Golden State big man Kevon Looney, who was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis. He pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then made all five FG attempts in Game vs Dallas (10 points / 5 rebounds), before making 10 of 14 shots in scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Game 2. In Game 3, he had 9 points and 12 rebounds. Doncic is averaging 32.1-9.5-6.2 this postseason, while Brunson has increased his scoring by almost a 'TD' more in the postseason (22.7 PPG) than he averaged in the regular season (16.3). Doncic has scored 42 and 40 points in the last two games, but he NEEDS more help than just Brunson. In Game 3, Dallas' three other starters combined for only NINE points (Dinwiddie did have 26 off the bench). Key three-point specialists Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Reggie Bullock combined for just nine points (all of them from Finney-Smith), as Kleber and Bullock missed all 12 of their threes and all 15 of their shots overall. NO team has overcome an 0-3 'hole' to win an NBA seven-game series and Dallas won't be the first to do so. After all, the Warriors have been great at winning series in the Kerr era, capturing 20 of 22, losing only to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2016 Finals and to the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 Finals. That said, I just don't see Dallas going quietly. The Mavs scored 117 points (had 72 at the half) in Game 2 but scored just 87 points in Game 1 and only 100 in Game 3. Expect Doncic and his 'helpers' to put together a solid offensive effort in Game 4. The problem? The Warriors had 82 FG attempts in Games 1 and 2 plus 81 in Game 3 (talk about consistency). The Warriors are shooting 53.1% for the series, averaging 115.7 PPG. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics never led in Game 3 and trailed by as many as 26 points early in the second quarter. "We didn't match (their physicality) from the start," Boston head coach Ime Udoka said. "We got into complaining and let it take us out of our game. It's disappointing to come out that flat in a conference finals game.' Still, the Celtics had a chance to post a comeback victory before the Heat held them off down the stretch. Miami led by 13 with 6:30 left before Boston responded with 12 consecutive points to cut the Heat's lead to 93-92 with 2:40 to play. However, the Heat held on to win 109-103.
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05-23-22 | Phillies -120 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. The 2021 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. Heading into this four-game series in Atlanta which opens tonight, both own 19-22 records, EIGHT games behind the Mets in the NL East. Philadelphia was 10-10 through April and has hovered around .500 by going 9-12 in May. The Braves fell to 5-6 on the season with a 2-1 loss at SD and have yet to climb back to .500. The first game of the series features Philly's Zack Wheeler (2-3, 3.49 ERA) against Atlanta rookie Tucker Davidson (1-0, 5.87 ERA). Wheeler comes in on a roll, having allowed only three ERs over 26 innings in his last four starts (he's 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA and the team is 3-1). Wheeler is coming off perhaps his best start of the season when he threw seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the San Diego Padres last Wednesday. Davidson is one of Atlanta's prized young arms and made his first start of the season on May 17, earning his first career victory. He threw five shutout innings against Milwaukee, allowing three hits, three walks and striking out three in a 3-0 win. That was quite an improvement over his only other 2022 appearance, when he allowed five ERs (2.2 IP) in an April 11th relief stint against the Nats. The 'jury is still out' on Davidson but as noted, Wheeler is in excellent current form plus in 21 career starts vs the Braves, he owns a 3.16 ERA. He made three starts against Atlanta in 2021, allowing just three ERs over 22 innings (1.23 ERA). Take the Phillies. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-22 | Cubs -121 v. Reds | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Chi Cubs at 6:40 ET. The Brewers and Cardinals were expected to battle for the NL Central title in 2022 and that is what has played out as the season approaches Memorial Day. Milwaukee is 26-15 and St Louis is 23-18. The Reds were coming off an 83-79 season in 2021 and likely had some hopes of joining the Brewers and Cards in the 2022 division 'fight' but there was "No Joy in Wrigleyville'' entering 2022, as the Cubs were coming off a 71-91 season. Cincy's dreadful 3-22 start basically 'killed' the Reds' 2022 plans, while the Cubbies dipped below .500 with a loss on April (6-7) and have remained a sub-.500 team since. The two NL Central rivals open a four-game series Monday in Cincinnati, with the Cubs at 16-24 and the Reds at 12-28. Chicago will start left-hander Drew Smyly (1-5, 3.97 ERA) on Monday, while Cincinnati will turn to Vladimir Gutierrez (0-5, 8.65 ERA). Smyly was 11-4 with Atlanta last season (Braves won the World Series), with the Braves going 14-9 in his 23 starts. However, he's been a disappointment for the Cubs in 2022 since pitching 9.2 scoreless innings in his first two starts (Cubs won both games). However, he takes the mound tonight having lost FIVE in row, while posting a 5.55 ERA. That said, his Cincy counterpart (Vladimir Gutierrez) is making his first start since May 11, when he was demoted to the bullpen. He never saw action as a reliever and the second-year pitcher has not made it through five innings in any of his SIX starts this season. He owns a 1.96 WHIP to go along with his 'ugly' 8.65 ERA in six starts (team is 1-5) plus opponents are batting .317 against him. Excellent spot for Smyly to pick up his second win of 2022 against Gutierrez and a team in which he's made four career starts against, going 3-0 (teams are 4-0) with a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Mavs at 8:0 ET. The Warriors small-ball lineup of Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green is one of the most feared in the NBA but Golden St has also dominated Dallas down low. The Warriors have outscored the Mavericks 106-62 in the paint while taking a 2-0 lead. Golden State big man Kevon Looney was inserted back into the starting lineup in Game 6 vs Memphis and he pulled down 22 rebounds in that series clinching win. He then made all five FG attempts in Game vs Dall (10 points / 5 rebounds), before making 10 of 14 shots in scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in Game 2. It was just his second career postseason double-double. Looney credits a lack of playing time with keeping him fresh for the playoffs. He played the fewest minutes in the NBA this season (1,732) among all players with 60 or more starts (he made 80).
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05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -129 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -129 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The 2021 Giants surprised all by winning a MLB-best 107 games last season, ending the Dodgers' run of eight straight NL West titles. However, they lost to the Dodgers in an NLDS matchup. Both San Diego and San Francisco are chasing the Dodgers in the NL West, as LA sits at 27-12 after winning SEVEN in a row. The Padres and Giants opened a three-game series in San Francisco on Friday and the Padres have come away with back-to-back one-run victories. San Diego won 8-7 (10 inn) on Friday and then 2-1 on Saturday, behind Joe Musgrove's seven scoreless innings. Musgrove improved to 5-0 and lowered his ERA to 1.90 with an eighth straight quality start to open the season (Padres are 8-0 in his starts). As the teams get set for the series finale, the Padres are 26-14 (1 1/2-games back of the Dodgers), while the Giants are now 22-17, FIVE games behind LA and 3 1/2-games back of SD.
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05-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941). Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022, coming off a 71-91 season last year. "Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss."
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Game 3 Tie-Breaker is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. Boston lost Game 1 of its series with Miami 118-107, despite outscoring the Heat in THREE of the game's four quarters. However, that ONE quarter (third) was a 'killer!' Boston didn't make a field goal in the first six minutes of the third quarter, as Miami outscored the Celtics 22-2 to start the third quarter and concluded it with a 39-14 advantage (Boston ended the quarter 2 of 15 from the floor!). Jimmy Butler had 17 of his 41 points in the third quarter. That said, I took Boston in Game 2, noting that the Celtics closed the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games, losing back-to-back games just ONCE. Here in the postseason, they had not lost back-to-back games in 12 playoff games. Boston was hopeful that Marcus Smart (mid-foot sprain) was going to play after missing Game 1 but Horford (virus-related issues) being able to play was a surprise AND a bonus. Boston trailed by 10 in the first quarter of Game 2 but then outscored Miami 60-21 over the next 18 minutes — a 39-point turnaround that wound up leading to a 70-45 halftime lead. Grant Williams checked into the game at at the 5 minute, 14 second mark of the first quarter and never left the floor over the final 17 minutes of the first half. The 127-102 victory sends the series back to Boston tied at one-all. Williams had 19 & 4, while Boston's "Big 3" did its job as well. Tatum had 27-5-5, Brown 24 & 8 plus Smart added 24-9-12. The Celtics shot 51.2% from the floor, including making 20 of 40 three-pointers. Butler had 29 for Miami but didn't get much help from his teammates. While Boston was making 20 three-pointers, Miami made just 10, on 34 attempts (29.4%). Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said the off day would be used to determine a response to the lopsided Game 2 result. "That's definitely part of the process in the playoffs," Spoelstra said. "You get to this point of the conference finals; you just have very good teams. You have teams without many weaknesses. It's great competition." Butler's had a terrific postseason, averaging 29.8-7.6-5.2 but 6th-man-of-the-year Herro (20.7 PPG in the regular season) and center Adebayo (19.1 & 10.1) have been hit-or-miss. Herro is averaging 13.9 PPG and Adebayo's numbers are off too, averaging 13.6 & 7.5. Noting all of the above, this point spread is too high in my opinion and I'll take Erik Spoelstra (he's led Miami to five NBA Finals!) over Boston's first-year head coach Ime Udoka on the sidelines. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-22 | Twins -137 v. Royals | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020.The KC Royals began the current season having missed the postseason in each of the previous SIX years, after making back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost) and 2015 (won). Minnesota posted a 6-4 victory in the series opener on Friday, moving to 23-16 (three games ahead of the White Sox for first place in the AL Central), while the Royals fell to 14-24 (can you say SEVEN straight missed postseasons?). The three-game series continues on Saturday, as Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.39 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins to face Brad Keller (1-3, 2.89 ERA) of the Royals. Both starters have excellent ERAs and WHIP's (Ryan's is 0.96 and Keller's is 1.01) but a closer look reveals the following.
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05-21-22 | Cardinals v. Pirates +123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Note: This side play is "action" (see below). My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pit Pirates at 6:35 ET. The StL Cards have been a postseason regular this century, making the playoffs 15 times since 2000. St Louis opened a three-game series last night in Pittsburgh, beating the Pirates 5-3. The Cards are 21-18 to open the 2022 season (four games behind the 1st-place Brewers in the NL Central), while the Pirates, who are coming off three losing seasons (including going 61-101 in 2021) fell to 16-22. St Louis opened the week losing three of four to the Mets and are hoping to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that has now scored just 12 runs in its last eight games.
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05-20-22 | Padres v. Giants -107 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Division (NL West) Game of the Month is on the SF Giants at 10:00 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The 2021 Giants surprised all by winning a MLB-best 107 games last season, ending the Dodgers' run of eight straight NL West titles. However, they lost to the Dodgers in an NLDS matchup. The 25-12 Dodgers are currently leading the NL West but the 24-14 Padres are in close pursuit, while the 22-15 Giants are hoping to close the gap when they host San Diego in this three-game weekend series in San Francisco. The series opens Friday night with Sean Manaea (2-3, 3.77 ERA in seven starts) pitching for the Padres against Jakob Junis (1-1, 1.79 ERA in four games, two starts). Both pitchers joined their teams this spring. Manaea had his moments with Oakland but was never really able to put together a full season. He opened 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA for the Padres but San Diego has lost his last four starts, with Manaea posting a 5.63 ERA. Junis signed with the Giants as a free agent in March after spending his entire career with the Royals, with whom he went 29-35 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 105 games (89 starts) over five seasons. He started the season in Triple-A Sacramento but in 20.2 innings with the Giants, has given up four ERs for a 1.74 ERA with 0.97 WHIP, an 18-4 KW ratio and a BAA of 2.13. It's early but this is an important series, especially for the Giants. The Giants won two of the three when the Padres last visited Oracle Park back on April 11-13. When San Diego leaves Oracle Park on Sunday, the two NL West 'chasers' will have 13 games remaining against each other in 2022, with 10 of those being played in San Diego. I will point out that the Padres are 14-7 on the road this year and are 5-1-1 in their seven road series to date. However, all five series wins have come against sub-.500 opponents. The Giants take a five-game home winning streak into tonight's game and I expect them to extend that winning streak to SIX in a row vs the struggling Manaea. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-22 | Braves -117 v. Marlins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 6:40 ET. The 2021 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The Marlins joined the National League in 1993 and entering the COVID-shortened season of 2020, had made the postseason just TWICE. However, the Marlins would capture the World Series each time, in 1997 over the Indians and in 2003 over the Yankees. The Marlins overcame all sorts of team COVID issues to end a 16-year postseason drought in 2020 but the 2021 team finished 67-95. The two NL East teams begin a three-game series tonight in Miami with the defending champs sporting a 17-21 record, a half-game worse than the Marlins. 17-20 mark.
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05-20-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -126 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941). Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022, coming off a 71-91 season last year. "Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss."
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05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics knew that they were going to play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals without Defensive POY Marcus Smart (15.0 & 6.2 APG this postseason) with a midfoot sprain) but big man Al Horford (13.0 & 9.4) was a late scratch. due to COVID-19 protocols. Boston got off to a strong start, with Tatum scoring 21 points in the first half and Robert Willaims playing for the first time since Game 3 vs Milwaukee (he wound up with 18 & 9). The Celtics led by EIGHT points at the half but then didn't make a field goal in the first six minutes of the third quarter. Miami outscored the Celtics 22-2 to start the third quarter and concluded it with a 39-14 advantage (Boston ended the quarter 2 of 15 from the floor!).
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05-19-22 | Diamondbacks +116 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on the Arz D'backs at 7:40 ET. Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022, coming off a 71-91 season last year. "Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss." The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941).
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05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians -123 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Play is on the Cle Indians at 1:10 ET. The Reds beat the Guardians 5-4 (10 inn) Tuesday night and will attempt to complete a sweep of Cleveland when the teams wrap of a two-game interleague series on Thursday (Wednesday's game was rained out). Cincinnati has won SEVEN of its last 11 games but the team's dreadful 3-22 start figures to leave them in the hole for most of the season. Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021. The Guardians won EIGHT of 10 to reach 15-14 through May 9 but have now lost FOUR of five to fall back to 16-18. The Reds will hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (2-4, 5.89 ERA), while Cal Quantrill (1-2, 3.93 ERA) will start for the Guardians. This is the same pitching matchup scheduled for Wednesday. Mahle opened the season 1-4 in six starts (team was 1-5) with a 7.01 ERA. He's been much better his last two, going 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA (Reds won both games) but both starts have come against Pittsburgh. Mahle enters tonight's game 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in four career starts against the Guardians (Reds are 0-4!). This is Quantrill's 4th MLB season, and he was 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 2021 (40 appearances, including 22 starts). His 3.93 ERA is not all that bad but Cleveland is only 2-4 in his six starts. He's only faced the Reds once, allowing three ERs over six innings in 2019. The Guardians won BOTH meetings in Cincinnati (10-5 and 7-3) back on April 12 & 13 and grab the "W" (one day later than planned) after a one-run loss on Tuesday night. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The Dallas Mavericks finished with ONE less win than the Golden St Warriors during the regular season which is why the Warriors own the home court advantage in the Western conference finals. However, it should be noted that the Mavs won THREE of the four regular season matchups between the two teams. The series' two stars are Doncic and Curry but note that Doncic outscored Curry in all four regular-season head-to-heads this season. In fact, their personal duel wasn't close, with the Doncic running up 26-14, 25-18, 34-27 and 41-21 scoring advantages. That said, this series is much more than a 'One-on-One' showdown between Doncic and Curry.
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05-18-22 | Astros -136 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -136 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 8* ALCS Rematch is on the Hou Astros at 6:10 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. The Red Sox have won four World Series titles since 2004 but Boston struggled to a 24-36 record in the 2020 season, before surprising most by going 92-70 in 2021. The Red Sox made it to the ALCS but lost 4-2 to the Astros. The teams met at Fenway Park starting on Monday for a three-game rematch of last year's American League Championship Series. Boston won 6-3 on Monday but Houston rebounded to win 13-4 on Tuesday. The rubber match" of the series goes Wednesday. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 8:30 ET. No teams have been in the East finals more than the Heat and Celtics, beginning in 2005.Miami will make its EIGHTH appearance in 18 seasons, while Boston will make its SEVENTH in the last 15. The top-seeded Heat have won SIX straight conference final appearances, (tied for the fourth-longest streak in NBA history), with two of those series victories coming against Boston (2012, 2020). Meanwhile, the second-seeded Celtics have lost FOUR straight Eastern Conference finals, including three in a four-season stretch from 2017-20. While the teams enter this series as the East's top-two seeds, they took different paths to reach that point. While the Heat battled at the top of the Eastern Conference season the entire season, the Celtics were just 24-25 through Jan 19, before closing the regular season winning 28 of their final 35 games.
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05-17-22 | Braves v. Brewers -110 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. The 2021 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The Milwaukee Brewers entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. Both were preseason favorites to win their respective divisions in 2022 but so far, only the Brewers are "holding up their end." The Brewers moved above .500 with an April 18th win (to move to 6-5) and opened this three-game series with the Braves on Monday 17-8 over their last 25 (.680). Milwaukee led the NL Central at 22-13, 2 1/2-games up on the Cardinals. The Braves started 2-1 but have been under .500 ever since. They came into Monday's game just 16-19, 6 1/2-games behind the Mets in the NL East. The brewers beat the Braves 1-0 last night, as Peralta outpitched Anderson. The series continues tonight with Milwaukee on an 18-8 run (a 23-13 record overall) and the Braves just 16-20, ahead of only the sad-sack Nationals in the NL East. Tucker Davidson (0-0, 16.88 ERA) will get the nod for the Braves on Tuesday in what will be his first start of the season. Milwaukee will counter with Adrian Houser (3-3, 3.86 ERA). Davidson made five starts in 2020 and 2021, lasting just 21.2 innings while allowing 10 ERs (4.15 ERA). His LONE appearance this season came back on April 11 against the Washington Nationals, allowing FIVE runs on five hits and two walks. Houser was just 7-13 (4.13 ERA) in his first four years with Milwaukee, before going 10- 6with a 3.22 ERA in 2021. The Brewers went 18-8 in his 26 starts, giving Houser MLB's 11th-best moneyline record (+$793 at $100/game). I expect Davidson to start but will make this side play "action," just in case the Braves change their minds before the first pitch! Houser is 3-3 in six starts and while he's yet to look as good as he did in 2021, he earns a HUGE advantage over Davidson (or whomever). He faces an Atlanta offense that never got going last night, managing just two hits. The last 17 Braves hitters were retired in order, and the bottom five batters in the lineup combined to go 0-for-15 with 11 strikeouts. Brewers move to 19-8 in their last 27 games with a "W." Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-22 | Mariners +135 v. Blue Jays | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Sea Mariners at 7:07 ET. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The Blue Jays also just missed a wild card spot (by ONE game!) in 2021 but were a 'sexy' preseason pick to best the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees in the brutally tough AL East in 2022. Seattle lost the opener of this three-game series 6-2 in Toronto last night and currently stands 16-20. The Mariners are already SEVEN games behind the 23-13 Astros and 24-14 Angels in the AL West. Can you say 21 straight playoff-less seasons? The Jays moved to a modest 19-17 with last night's win and sits 7 1/2-games behind the first-place Yankees and two games behind the Rays in the AL East.
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05-16-22 | Angels -133 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels at 8:05 ET. The Angels are coming off a 77-85 season and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). The Rangers appeared in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) but continued to be competitive, making the playoffs in THREE of the next five seasons. However, it's been FIVE consecutive losing seasons for Texas since 2017.
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05-16-22 | Braves +128 v. Brewers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Braves at 7:40 ET. he 20221 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The Milwaukee Brewers entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. Both were preseason favorites to win their respective divisions in 2022 but so far, only the Brewers are "holding up their end." The Brewers moved above .500 with an April 18th win (to move to 6-5) and enter this game 17-8 their last 25 (.680). Milwaukee leads the NL Central at 22-13, 2 1/2-games up on the Cardinals. The Braves started 2-1 but have been under .500 ever since. They come into this game just 16-19, 6 1/2-games behind the Mets in the NL East. Ian Anderson (3-1, 4.20 ERA) is slated to start for Atlanta, while Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta (2-1, 4.40 ERA). Anderson lasted just 2.2 innings (allowed 5 ERs) in his season debut but over his last five, he's allowed a modest nine ERs over 27.1 innings for a 2.96 ERA (he's 3-0 and the Braves are 4-1). Peralta was 16-8 with a 4.67 ERA for Milwaukee in his first three season, with just 23 of his 70 appearances coming as a starter. However, he made 27 starts last season, going 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (Brewers were 18-9 in his starts). Peralta lasted just seven innings in his first two starts of 2022 (allowed nine ERS!) but over his last four, has allowed just five ERs in his last 21.2 innings, good for an ERA of 2.08 (he's 2-0 and the team is 3-1). Bottom line here is I'm backing Anderson over Peralta. The Braves really like Anderson and why not? He's 4-0 the last two postseasons, posting a 1.28 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. I really like Anderson as well and he comes in pitching VERY well plus in two career starts vs Milwaukee (both last season, winning each one) he's allowed one ER (on 5 hits) over 11 innings for an ERA of 0.82 and a WHIP of 0.82). Great price on Anderson and I'm taking it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-22 | Astros +107 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* ALCS Rematch is on the Hou Astros at 7:10 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. The Red Sox have won four World Series titles since 2004 but Boston struggled to a 24-36 record in the 2020 season, before surprising most by going 92-70 in 2021. The Red Sox made it to the ALCS but lost 4-2 to the Astros. A rematch of last year's American League Championship Series is set for a three-game set at Fenway Park starting Monday, when the Houston Astros visit the Boston Red Sox.
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 2nd Round Game of the Year is on the Pho Suns at 8:00 ET. The fact that the Suns owned the NBA's best record at 64-18, EIGHT games better than Memphis (owners of the 2nd-best mark) and 12 games better than the 4th-seed Mavs, means absolutely NOTHING at the moment. All the pressure is on the Phoenix Suns when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals. The home team has won in the previous six games of the series (also covered), including Dallas staving off elimination in Game 6 with a 113-86 rout of the Suns. A loss here by the Suns would be a 'killer' for a team that made the NBA Finals last season and rolled through the current regular season. The situation allows the fourth-seeded Mavericks to play freely, while the Suns' play will be 'put under the microscope' if they were to be eliminated in the second round. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Game 7 Decider is on the Mil Bucks at 3:30 ET. Boston and Milwaukee both finished 51-31, two games behind Miami for the East's best record. However, the Celtics earned the No. 2 seed (Milwaukee settled for No. 3) due to tiebreakers. Milwaukee opened the series with a 101-89 Game 1 win (in Boston), with the Celtics bouncing back with 109-86 win in Game 2. That set a trend that continued all series, with the teams alternating wins and losses. Giannis Antetokounmpo poured in 44 points with 20 rebounds in a potential series-clincher on Friday for Milwaukee but he was upstaged by Jayson Tatum's 46 points plus a better performance from Tatum's supporting cast (brown had 2 points and Smart 21), than Gianinis got from his. The result? The 108-95 Boston road win set up this Game 7 in Boston.
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05-15-22 | Reds v. Pirates -131 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Pit Pirates at 1:35 ET. The Reds opened the season 3-22, so they had nowhere to go but up. The Reds won the first two of this four-game series with the Pirates in Pittsburgh (4-0 and 8-2) and had won a season-high three straight, five of six and six of eight before Saturday's 3-1 loss. A win Sunday could further boost the 9-25 Reds' confidence with a third straight series win, after Cincinnati went 0-7-1 in its first eight series. Pittsburgh will try to get away with a series split. Pittsburgh is coming off three losing seasons, including going 61-101 in 2021 (Pirates are 14-19 to open 2022). The pitching matchup sure favors Pittsburgh on Sunday, as Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene (1-5, 7.62 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Pittsburgh veteran Jose Quintana (1-1, 2.70 ERA). Greene has allowed 32 hits in 26 innings (he's yet to throw six full innings), as well as 22 ERs. Adding to his 'ugly' 7.62 ERA, there is his 1.81 WHIP and a BAA of .291! Quintana has been around since 2012 and had 13-win seasons in 2016, 2018 and 2019, However, he made just 33 appearances (just 11 starts) in the 2020 and 2021 seasons combined, going 0-3 with 6.16 ERA. That said, Quintana makes this SEVENTH start of 2022 here, coming off one of the more impressive starts by a Pirates pitcher this season. He picked up his first win this past Monday when he shut out the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers for six innings, allowing two hits, five strikeouts and four walks, in Pittsburgh's 5-1 win. Quintan finally got some help from his lineup, as he had received poor run support in three of his first five starts, masking the fact that he has allowed two runs or less in FIVE of his first six starts. I don't usually make a "big play" on a team playing .424 baseball, but Quintana earns a HUGE edge over Greene and remember, the Reds check in with a 'winning percentage' of .265! Pardon the pun. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-22 | Guardians -125 v. Twins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Note: This side play is "action" (see below for details). My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET. Cleveland began a new era in 2022 (no longer the Indians, now the Guardians). Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021. The Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020. The teams opened a three-game series in Minnesota last night, with 15-15 Cleveland having won EIGHT of 11 and the 18-14 Twins having just got swept 3-0 by Houston, which outscored them 21-3. Friday's game was tied two-all entering the bottom of the 6th, when Minnesota broke it open by scoring NINE times on its way to a 12-8 victory. The teams play again Saturday, with Minnesota leading in the AL Central (19-14), while Cleveland and Chicago are both three games back at 15-16. Sane Bieber (1-2, 4.13 ERA) will take the mound for Cleveland, while the Twins have decided to promote Devin Smeltzer to make his season debut. Smeltzer is 4-2 with a 4.26 ERA in 19 career games (seven starts) with the Twins over parts of the previous three seasons. One can't be sure if Smeltzer will definitely go, and that's the reason I'm making this side play "action!" |
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05-14-22 | Padres v. Braves -121 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 4:05 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The Padres are off to a good start in 2022, while the defending champs are struggling. The teams opened a three-game series last night in Atlanta with San Diego winning 11-6. The Padres scored four runs (in six innings) off the red-hot Fried and then added SEVEN more runs (wound up with 16 hits for the game) off three relievers. Darvish gave of five ERs but it didn't matter much.
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05-14-22 | Giants v. Cardinals -105 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The SF Giants surprised all by winning a MLB-best 107 games last season, although they lost to the Dodgers in an NLDS matchup. The StL Cards have been a postseason regular this century, making the playoffs 15 times since 2000. The teams opened a three-game series last night in St Louis, with the Giants defeating the Cardinals 8-2 to extend their winning streak to SIX games, while the Cards lost for the FIFTH time in six games. The Giants are now 20-12, right on the heels of the 21-12 Padres and 20-11 Dodgers in the NL West, while the 17-15 Cards have fallen 3 1/2-games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Giants have outscored opponents 49-20 during their winning streak, while the Cards have scored three runs or less in four of their last five games. However, I'm backing St Louis in this one, taking Dakota Hudson (2-2, 3.56 ERA) over Jakob Junis (1-0, 1.20 ERA). Hudson was 16-7 back in 2019 but injuries have limited him to just 15 stars since that season, with SIX of those starts coming here in 2022. He made four April starts and posted a 2,75 ERA (team was 3-1) but the Cards have lost both of his May starts. He hasn't been that far off in May, allowing three ERs in each outing, including last Sunday in San Francisco when he allowed three runs on five hits and four walks in 4.2 innings. He struck out four in a no-decision during a game the Giants won 4-3. Take note that he had won both of his previous career starts vs the Giants, posting a 2.45 ERA. Junis was 9-3 in 2017 but entered this season 20-32 with 4,94 ERA since that season. He's got a 1.20 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and a 15-3 KW ratio this season but that's over just three starts, lasting a modest 15 innings. He's made four career starts vs the Cards without a decision, posting a 3.20 ERA while his teams are 2-2. The Giants are surging, while the Cards are in an offensive slump but I REALLY like Hudson over Junis in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-22 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022, coming off a 71-91 season last year. "Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss." The Arizona D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 World Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941). Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Bos Celtics at 7:30 ET. Boston and Milwaukee both finished 51-31, two games behind Miami for the East's best record. However, the Celtics earned the No. 2 seed (Milwaukee settled for No. 3) due to tiebreakers. The teams were tied two-all in this second round series going into Wednesday's Game 5 in Boston (had alternated wins the first four games) and the defending champs kept that trend going with a comeback win. Boston turned a 71-68 edge into a 12-point lead and was up 93-79 with 10:19 to play. However, Milwaukee won the fourth quarter 33-21 to give them a 110-107 victory and a 3-2 series lead. It marked Boston's biggest blown lead in the playoffs in more than 25 years! The Bucks will get an opportunity on their home floor to close out at Celtics on Friday night. |
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05-13-22 | Padres v. Braves -145 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The Padres are off to a good start in 2022 at 20-12, just ONE game behind the 1st-place Dodgers in the NL West. In contrast, the Braves started 2-1 but have been under .500 ever since. The 15-17 Braves open this three-game home series with the Padres 6 1/2-games behind the 22-11 Mets in the NL East.
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05-12-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -136 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. Philly heads to LA tonight to open a four-game series with the Dodgers, after taking two of three in Seattle. The Phillies are just 14-17 to open the season and find themselves 6 1/2-game behind the Mets in the NL East (11 straight non-playoff seasons?). The Dodgers saw their streak of EIGHT straight NL West titles end in 2021 (Giants won 107 games to LA's 106) but made the postseason for the NINTH consecutive season (did beat the Giants 3-2 in a NLDS matchup). The Dodgers just lost TWO of three in Pittsburgh (?) but are back home to begin an eight-game homestand. LA is 20-9 on the season, 1 1/2-games better than the Padres and two games ahead of the Giants in the NL West (tough division).
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05-12-22 | Suns v. Mavs +2 | Top | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dal Mavs at 9:30 ET. The Phoenix Suns were easily the NBA's best team during the regular season but needed six games to eliminate No.8 New Orleans and now need to win Game 6 in Dallas (No. 4 seed) to avoid a Game 7. Despite the Suns' 110-80 win in Game 5, it has to be noted that the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS in this series. Dallas lost Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, as Doncic (combined 80 points) got very little help from his supporting cast and the Dallas defense (104.7 PPG allowed ranked 2nd during the regular season) could not slow down the Suns, who averaged 125.0 PPG. However, back in Dallas for Games 3 and 4, Doncic finally got some help and the Mavs controlled the Phoenix offense, holding the Suns to 97.5 PPG, as Dallas tied the series at two-all. The Suns outscored Dallas 33-14 in the third quarter of Game 5 to take a 22-point lead into the final quarter and won by 30! Booker scored 28 points (he's averaging 26.8-5.2-5.4 in the series), Ayton added 20 & 9 plus SF's Bridges and Johnson each had 14. Phoenix may just be worried about Chris Paul. He scored 47 points in Games 1 and 2 but was awful in Games 3 & 4 in Dallas (a total of 17 points) and was non-factor in Game 5's blowout win (3 of 8 for 7 points). Luka Doncic said his team never got its offense into gear in Game 5. He had 28 points and 11 rebounds on Tuesday and is averaging 32.0-9.6-7.4 in the series. Brunson added 21 points (he's averaged 22.3 PPG in the last three games, after averaging 11.0 PPG in the first two), as the backcourt combined for 49 points. However, the rest of the Mavericks totaled only 31 points on 8-of-31 shooting. Doncic's 'helpers' stepped up in Games 3 and 4 at home and I'm betting they do so again in Game 6. "When you talk about the playoffs it's about protecting home court," Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said. "It's hard to win on the road. So far, both teams have held serve. Now our goal is to hold serve in Game 6." See you Sunday in Phoenix! Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi 76ers at 7:00 ET. Miami is the East's No. 1 seed (53-29) and Philadelphia (51-31), which won just two fewer games than the Heat (but lost tiebreakers to both Boston and Milwaukee), settled for the No. 4 seed. Joel Embiid was a Most Valuable Player candidate all season but sat out the first two games, as Miami won 106-92 and 119-103. However, Embiid made a surprise return to play Games 3 and 4 in Philadelphia. He's playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb and a face mask to protect an orbital fracture but helped Philly to 99-79 and 116-108 wins. Embiid had 42 points and 22 rebounds in the two wins and Harden had a terrific Game 4 with 31 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. However, back in Miami for Game 5, Embiid (17 & 5) looked tentative and also appeared to tweak his back. Harden managed only 14 points in 37 minutes and fellow guard Maxey, who averaged 23.0 PPG through the first four games, had just NINE points (2 of 10 shooting).
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mem Grizzlies at 9:30 ET. Grizzlies PG Ja Morant has a bone bruise in his right knee and is considered doubtful for the remainder of the playoffs, the team announced Tuesday. Morant will definitely miss his second straight contest tonight, when Memphis attempts to stave off elimination at home against Golden St (Warriors lead 3-1). There is NOTHING good about Morant NOT playing but the Grizzlies went 20-5 without Morant this season. Memphis definitely missed his scoring down the stretch in a 101-98 loss in Game 4, as Memphis missed SIX of its final eight shots after leading by three with 2:32 remaining. |
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05-11-22 | Red Sox v. Braves -122 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Red Sox have won four World Series titles since 2004. Boston struggled to a 24-36 record in the 2020 season but surprised most by going 92-70 and reaching the ALCS before losing 4-2 to the Astros. The Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. The Red Sox and Braves opened a two-game interleague series Tuesday in Atlanta with both teams coming in with losing records. The Red Sox had lost FIVE straight (and 12 of 15!), giving them a 10-19 record (LAST in the AL East). The Braves started 2-1 but have been under .500 ever since. The Braves were coming off winning TWO of three over Milwaukee) and entered having won three of four. At 14-16, the Braves sat in 2nd-place in the NL East but SIX games behind the Mets.
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pho Suns at 10:00 ET. The Mavs fell behind 0-2 in this series for two reasons. The No. 1 reason was that they couldn't win with just Doncic (45 and 35 points) being a "one-man show," but reason No. 1-A was that a defense that ranked 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 104.7 PPG and one which held the Jazz to just 99.0 PPG in the first round, was 'helpless against the Suns in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix. The Suns made 50.5 percent in a 121-114 win in Game 1 (final margin was made respectable by a late run by the Mavs) and then made 64.5% in Game 2's 129-109 win. The Suns started the fourth quarter of Game 2 nursing an 89-83 advantage, but they then made 16 of 19 from the floor! The Western Conference semifinal series between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks has followed a pattern.
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05-10-22 | Rays -107 v. Angels | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the TB Rays at 9:38 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays entered the current season off three straight postseason appearances, winning the AL East in both 2020 and 2021. The Angels are coming off a 77-85 season and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). The teams began a three-game series in Anaheim on Monday night with LA coming away with an impressive 11-3 victory. The win gives the Angels a 20-11 record, ONE game better than the 18-11 Astors in the AL West. The blowout loss Monday night was Tampa Bay's second consecutive setback following a six-game winning streak. The Rays are 18-12, three games behind the Yankees in the AL East.
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05-10-22 | Astros -131 v. Twins | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 7:40 ET. The Houston Astros entered the season having won the NL West in FOUR of the previous five seasons (three WS appearances in that span) and were preseason favorites to repeat as AL West champs. The Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020. The Astros visit the Twins to open a NINE-game road trip Tuesday night in Minneapolis. Both teams are 18-11 but note that Houston has won SEVEN in a row to close within ONE game of the Angels in the AL West. As for the Twins, after stumbling to a 4-8 start, they have won 12 of 15 to reach 18-11, giving them a three-game lead in the AL Central over Cleveland and a 3 1/2-game lead of the defending AL Central champion White Sox.
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05-10-22 | Red Sox v. Braves -130 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. Full, detailed analysis Tuesday morning by 10:00 ET. |
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05-09-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks +108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 108 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Marlins joined the National League in 1993 and entering the COVID-shortened season of 2020, had made the postseason just TWICE. However, the Marlins would capture the World Series each time, in 1997 over the Indians and in 2003 over the Yankees. The Marlins overcame all sorts of team COVID issues to end a 16-year postseason drought in 2020 but the 2021 team finished 67-95. The D'backs joined the NL in 1998 and made the playoffs in THREE of the team's first five seasons (won 2001 Worlds Series). However, since 2003, Arizona has missed the postseason in 16 of the last 19 years. The D'backs hit 'rock bottom' in 2021, earning the dreaded 'daily double,' as owners of MLB's worst record (52-110) and its worst moneyline mark (-$3,941).
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -118 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* IL Game of the Month is on the Sea Mariners at 9:40 ET. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies opened the season having failed to make the playoffs in each of the last 10 years, the second-longest active streak in MLB. Philly ended April 11-11 but are just 1-5 in May (two rainouts) and at 12-16, don't look much like a playoff contender in the early going. Seattle was 11-6 through April 26th but has lost 10 of 12 to fall to 13-16. With the 19-11 Angels and 18-11 Astros off to good starts, Seattle needs to get things straightened out. The Phillies open a seven-game road trip this week with three games in Seattle. The team is currently without starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin (COVID-19 injured list), but the Phillies said both might rejoin the squad on the seven-game trip (the last four games are in Anaheim against the Angels). Ranger Suarez (2-1, 4.63 ERA) will make his sixth start Monday and his first career appearance against the Mariners. He made 39 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. However, while he's 2-1 in five starts in 2022 (team is 4-1), his ERA has 'jumped' more than THREE runs (from 1.36 to 4.63) and his WHIP is up from 1.00 to 1.63! Chris Flexen was 14-6 (3.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP) in 2021 and with the Mariners going 22-9 in his starts, owned MLB's best moneyline mark at +$1,597. Yes, he's 1-4 in five starts in 2022 but note that both his ERA (3.10) and WHIP (1.14) are lower than last year's numbers! Excellent opportunity here for Flexen to pick up a "W" against a Philly team that's 3-7 on the road. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics 7:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks were the NBA's best regular season team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 regular seasons, only to 'flop' in the playoffs. Milwaukee was the East's No. 3 seed last year (7th-best record in the NBA, overall), but would go on to win the franchise's second-ever title. The Bucks fell behind the Suns 0-2 in the Finals but won the next FOUR games. Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia all finished at 51-31 this regular season with tiebreakers leaving Boston as the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee the No. 3 seed and Philly the No. 4 seed. Milwaukee only had a small blip against the slumping Bulls (Chicago won Game 2 in Milwaukee) in the first round, winning the series 4-1. That set them up for a 2nd-round matchup with Boston. Boston went 'quietly' against Brooklyn (lost 4-1) in the first-round last season and was seemingly going nowhere this season, with a 24-25 record back on the morning of January 27th. However, the Celtics would go 28-7 to finish the regular season and then served up a 4-0 'revenge' sweep over the Nets in the first round.
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05-08-22 | Marlins v. Padres -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET. The Marlins joined the National League in 1993 and entering the COVID-shortened season of 2020, had made the [postseason just TWICE. However, the Marlins would capture the World Series each time, in 1997 over the Indians and in 2003 over the Yankees. The Marlins overcame all sorts of team COVID issues to end a 16-year postseason drought in 2020 but the 2021 team finished 67-95. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants.
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05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pho Suns at 3:30 ET. The Mavs fell behind 0-2 in this series for two reasons. The No. 1 reason was that they couldn't win with just Doncic (45 and 35 points) being a "one-man show," but reason No. 1-A was that a defense that ranked 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 104.7 PPG and one which held the Jazz to just 99.0 PPG, was 'helpless against the Suns in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix. The Suns made 50.5 percent in a 121-114 win in Game 1 (final margin was made respectable by a late run by the Mavs) and then made 64.5% in Game 2's 129-109 win. The Suns started the fourth quarter of Game 2 nursing an 89-83 advantage, but they then made 16 of 19 from the floor!
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05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves -102 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Signature 38-Clib Play is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers entered the current season having made the last four postseasons, winning the NL Central in 2021. The 20221 Braves won the NL East for the FOURTH straight season last year and then captured the franchise's first World Series title since 1995. Both were preseason favorites to win their respective divisions in 2022. The Brewers won the series opener 6-3 on Friday in Atlanta and have won NINE of their last 10 games. Milwaukee has won 18 of its last 23 and at 19-8, is tied with the NY Mets for the most wins in MLB. In contrast, the Braves fell to 12-16, leaving them SEVEN games behind the aforementioned Mets in the NL East. The ONLY time Atlanta has been above-.500 this season was back on April 9, when the Braves were 2-1!
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05-07-22 | Cardinals +135 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Card at 7:15 ET. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 3:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks were the NBA's best regular season team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 regular seasons, only to 'flop' in the playoffs. Milwaukee was the East's No. 3 seed last year (7th-best record in the NBA, overall), but would go on to win the franchise's second-ever title. The Bucks fell behind the Suns 0-2 in the Finals but won the next FOUR games. Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia all finished at 51-31 this regular season with tiebreakers leaving Boston as the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee the No. 3 seed and Philly the No. 4 seed. Milwaukee only had a small blip against the slumping Bulls (Chicago won Game 2 in Milwaukee) in the first round, winning the series 4-1. That set them up for a 2nd-round matchup with Boston.
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Dal Mavs at 9:30 ET. With Doncic missing the first three games of its series against Utah, the Mavs were able to go 2-1 without him and then closed out the series by taking two of three games when he returned. More notably, after holding opponents to just 104.7 PPG on the season (2nd-best), the Mavs held the Jazz to just 99.0 PPG. However, the Mavs have been unable to slow down Phoenix in the first two games of this series, The Suns made 50.5 percent in a 121-114 win in Game 1 (final margin was made respectable by a late run by the Mavs) and then made 64.5% in Game 2's 129-109 win. The Suns started the fourth quarter of Game 2 nursing an 89-83 advantage, but they then made 16 of 19 from the floor! |
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05-06-22 | Rays v. Mariners -125 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Mariners at 9:40 ET. Note: This an "action play," as one can't be sure which pitcher Tampa Bay will use as an 'opener!"
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05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners +121 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Division Game of the Month is on the Sea mariners at 9:40 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays entered the current season off three straight postseason appearances, winning the AL East in both 2020 and 2021. Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The two teams are meeting for the second time in two weeks, as they open a four-game series tonight in Seattle. Last week at Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay won the set by taking two of three from the Mariners - dropping the first game 8-4 before earning a pair of one-run victories to close the series. The Rays then lost a home weekend series against the Minnesota Twins, before rebounding to sweep the A's in a three-game series to open this week in Oakland. Seattle returns home after a 2-7 road trip which included losing all three at Houston Monday through Wednesday (Seattle is now 4-25 in Houston since the 2019 season opened, a span during which Seattle has been outscored 190-77). The Mariners have fallen to 12-13 but will be home for seven games (Phillies arrive Monday for a three-game series).
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Mavs at 10:00 ET. The Dallas Mavericks (No. 4 seed) and the Phoenix Suns (No. 1 seed) met in Game 1 on Monday of their second round series and while the final score landed 121-114, the contest wasn't as close as the final score indicated. Luka Doncic was terrific, scoring 45 points, adding 12 rebounds and handing out eight assists. However, Dallas never led at any point and trailed by as many as 21, before staging a frantic fourth-quarter comeback that made the score respectable. The major problem? Doncic was a "one-man band," as he scored more points by himself than the rest of the Mavericks' starters combined (just 39). In contrast, SIX Suns scored in double digits. All five starters did so, led by Ayton (25) and Booker (23). Ayton added eight rebounds and Booker just missed a triple-double, adding nine rebounds and eight assists. The sixth Sun to reach double digits was SF Cam Johnson, who chipped in 17 points. I took the Suns in Game 1 and noted that Jalen Brunson had scored 20-plus points in all six games, despite NEVER having had 20-plus points in more than TWO straight regular-season games. He averaged 38 minutes per game vs Utah and committed just FOUR turnovers. I added, "I find it hard to believe that Brunson can repeat that kind of effort against the NBA's best team." Good call! Brunson was just 6-of-16 from the floor, scoring 13 points. Fellow guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who averaged 15.3 PPG against Utah, had just eight in the opener. As for the Suns, let's note that Booker is struggling to regain his shooting stroke after missing three games in the first-round series against the New Orleans Pelicans due to a right hamstring injury. Booker had 23 points in Game 1 but was just 7-of-20 from the floor vs the Mavericks after having 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting in the final game against the Pelicans. I called Phoenix the NBA's best team but will note that the Suns almost blew a HUGE lead. The Suns led 106-85 with 8:48 remaining but the Mavs closed within five before Phoenix held off the Mavericks. In fact, the Suns were 8 of 8 from the FT line in the final 47.3 seconds to thwart the Dallas comeback bid. Doncic's 45 points raised his career playoff average to 33.4 points in just 17 games. He CAN'T do it alone, but his supporting cast almost HAS to play better in Game 2. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-22 | White Sox v. Cubs OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* IL Ov/Un Game of the Month is on the White Sox/Cubs Over at 7:40 ET. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games. As for the Chicago Cubs (71-91), here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022. " Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss."
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05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mem Grizzlies at 9:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors made FIVE consecutive NBA Finals appearances from 2015 to 2019, winning three. Now, after missing out on the playoffs in each of the last two postseasons, Golden St (No. 3 seed) is looking to make another postseason run. The Warriors took a 3-0 lead over Denver in the first round, lost Game 4, but then eliminated the Nuggets in Game 5. That set up a matchup with the 2nd-seeded Memphis Grizzlies, who had a tough time in the first round against the Minnesota T-wolves. Memphis needed six games to put away Minnesota and the series featured THREE Memphis wins in which the Grizzlies overcame double-digit 4th-quarter deficits, setting an NBA playoff record. Game 1 of the series was Sunday and Memphis found itself on the "wrong side" of a comeback. The Grizzlies led by as many as 13 points in the second quarter and were up 61-55 at the half. The Grizzlies entered the 4th-quarter trailing 91-90 but led the NBA in the fourth with an average of 33 points and outscoring opponents by 10.3 points a game. However, on Sunday they could only match the Warriors point for point in the period. Neither team led by more than four points during the final five minutes, which featured four ties and two lead changes. Golden State's Gary Payton II made a layup to even the score at 114-114 with 1:35 remaining. Memphis quickly bounced back with an alley-oop dunk by Brandon Clarke that made it 116-114 in favor of the Grizzlies with 1:16 to go. Klay Thompson put Golden State on top for good on a three-pointer with 36.6 seconds remaining and there was no scoring after that. Jordan Poole exploded onto the postseason scene with 30 points as a starter in his playoff debut against Denver last month but was even better in his first postseason reserve role, scoring 31 points to go along with eight rebounds and nine assists. Curry had 24 points, Wiggins 17 & 8 and Thompson had 15. Ja Morant led Memphis with 34 points (also had 9 rebounds and 10 assists), while PF Jackson added 33 and 10. Bane, who led Memphis by averaging 23.5 PPG against Minnesota, made just 3 of 10 shots, while scoring just NINE points. In the end, Morant couldn't convert a buzzer-beating driving layup that could have flipped the final score in Memphis' favor. "I missed a layup I normally make all the time," Morant admitted after finishing with 10 assists and nine rebounds. "Onto the next (game)." That's head coach Taylor Jenkins' state of mind as well. he left the arena Sunday expecting the same type of rebound that saw his team win four of the next five games against Minnesota, after the T-wolves upset Memphis in Game 1 of that series. "Do what we've done all season," he said of the plan moving forward. "Rest. Recover. Watch the film. Get better and come out and compete hard (in Game 2)." Don't forget, Memphis was easily the NBA's best ATS team this season (52-29-1). Memphis lost Game 1 but did get the cover and I'll back them again in Game 2, expecting them to win outright and send this series back to San Francisco tied at one-all. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-22 | Cardinals -108 v. Royals | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The 2nd pick of my STP is a 10* on the StL Cardinals at 8:10 ET. The StL Cards have been a postseason regular this century, making the playoffs 15 times since 2000. Meanwhile, the Cards' Missouri rivals, the KC Royals, began the current season having missed the postseason in each of the previous SIX years. The two in-state rivals opened a three-game IL series Monday, with the Royals wasting a strong pitching performance by Zack Greinke (6 IP / 3 hits / one ER) while falling 1-0 to the Cardinals. Yesterday's contest was played in St louis (rescheduled game) but now it's two games at Kauffman Stadium Tuesday and Wednesday. The Royals have scored just SIX runs during their four-game losing streak and have lost nine of 11 heading into this two-game set in KC. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won four of their last six, but they have scored two or fewer runs in SIX of their last nine games. |
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05-03-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -128 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The first pick of my STP is a 9* on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET. The New York Yankees opened their series at Toronto with a 3-2 victory on Monday night, on a tiebreaking single in the ninth. New York now owns 10 straight wins and a 17-6 record, 2 1/2-games better than Toronto (15-9) and four better than Tampa Bay. New York is on a double-digit winning streak for the second straight season, and its 17-6 start is the team's best since 2003 (19-4). The Blue Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 games but need to do much more offensive than last Night, when Toronto hit into three double plays and went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:00 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks were the NBA's best regular season team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 regular seasons, only to 'flop' in the playoffs. Milwaukee was the East's No. 3 seed last year (7th-best record in the NBA, overall), but would go on to win the franchise's second-ever title. The Bucks fell behind the Suns 0-2 in the Finals but won the next FOUR games. Milwaukee, Boston and Philadelphia all finished at 51-31 this regular season with tiebreakers leaving Boston as the No. 2 seed, Milwaukee the No. 3 seed and Philly the No. 4 seed. Milwaukee only had a small blip against the slumping Bulls (Chicago won Game 2 in Milwaukee) in the first round, winning the series 4-1. That set them up for a 2nd-round matchup with Boston. |