|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-11-18||Montreal v. Ottawa -14||Top||17-24||Loss||-105||34 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Ottawa Redblacks (8:00 EST).
So far I’m 7-4 in the CFL this season. I’m banking on Ottawa bouncing back from last week’s inexplicable 42-41 loss to Toronto and pound Johnny Manziel and the floundering Alouette’s through the field tonight.
This is the second of three in the season series between the clubs. In Week 4 Ottawa would pull away for the 28-18 win at Molson Stadium. That was then though and this is now.
Montreal will be led by the much maligned Johnny Manziel under center for a second straight week. In his debut last week (Als fell 50-11 to the Ti-Cats) Manziel would go 11 of 20 for 104 yards and four INT’s. Manziel was pulled for Vernon Adams Jr., who was then lost to injury with a foot issue.
The Als’ run game is non-existent and their defense is terrible. Also note that defensive end John Bowman is out for up to six weeks with a torn bicep as well.
Ottawa now has a slim one-game lead in the East after letting a 24-point lead get away from it in last week’s shocking loss to the Argos. QB Trevor Harris was sharp though by going 27 of 35 for 381 yards and two TD’s. Diontae Spencer had eight catches for 145 yards and a TD, while also returning three punts for 104 yards and another major score.
I’ll point though that Ottawa is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 against the division and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 against clubs with losing records, while Montreal is just 12-24 ATS in its last 36 as an underdog and only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a division rival.
Lay the points with confidence, play on the Redblacks.
|07-28-18||Ottawa +6 v. Hamilton||Top||21-15||Win||100||32 h 43 m||Show|
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Ottawa Redblacks (4:00 EST).
Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little” on the money line in this one? I’m definitely not. But I do absolutely believe that Ottawa will come to play tonight and keep this one competitive until the final moments.
Ottawa in fact leads Hamilton by a game in the East Division. Last year when these teams played the Redblacks won at Tim Hortons Field 37-18, as they’d go on to score 22 second-half points with QB Trevor Harris going for 394 yards and two TD’s.
Ottawa comes in off a 29-25 win over BC, as William Powell scored the go-ahead TD with just moments to go. Harris would go 30 off 44 for 363 yards and a TD, while Brad Sinopoli made 11 grabs for 171 yards.
The Ti-Cats come in with zero momentum after back to back loss to Saskatchewan. Hamilton traded backup QB Johnny Manziel to Montreal this past week, leaving Jeremia Masoli as the No. 1 guy. He’s failed to deliver in consecutive starts though and I think he’s going to struggle again here as well.
Note that Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Hamilton is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on the Redblacks.
|07-12-18||Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5||Top||27-3||Loss||-106||35 h 45 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Ottawa Redblacks (7:30 EST).
Ottawa pulled off a 39-33 upset over Calgary in the 2016 Grey Cup and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question here either, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
Note that this is an “in-season revenge game” for the Redblacks, as the Stampeders won 24-14 at home in Week 3, led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell with 251 yards and two scores. Trevor Harris had just 135 yards and a pick in that one for Calgary, but all signs point to a bounce back here in my opinion.
Calgary is so far the only unbeaten team in the CFL, but off its bye, I’m expecting it to come out a little flat-footed here. Mitchell so far had 872 yards and six TD passes, while Eric Rogers is tied for third with three TD catches.
Ottawa won 28-18 in Montreal last weekend, as Harris bounced back with 342 yards and three TD’s. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Ottawa receiver Brad Sinopoli, who caught 11 passes for 148 yards and a TD.
Both teams looked sharp defensively in their last games, so I’m going to call that area a “wash” tonight.
I will point out though that Ottawa is an amazing 14-5 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog.
The week off leads to “rust” for Calgary, while the Redblacks build off their latest victory. Grab the points, play on Ottawa.
|07-07-18||BC v. Winnipeg -6||Top||19-41||Win||100||37 h 2 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8:30 EST).
Winnipeg welcomes back QB Matt Nichols to the line-up in this one, which made the Bombers’ line jump from 4-points to around 6-points. I think Nichols will in fact be the difference maker in this one and I expect the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch.
Winnipeg is 5-3 SU the last eight in this series, including 3-1 on home field.
And that doesn’t bode well for a BC team which is a horrible 2-10-1 ATS in it last 13 against teams from the West. In fact, the Lions are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine in this series.
BC comes in off a 41-22 beatdown loss in Edmonton last week and I think it’ll still be caught up on that loss on the short week and on the road.
Winnipeg is just 1-2 on the year, but Nichols will be a massive boost for everyone concerned. Nichols threw for 4,472 yards and 28 TD’s last year.
BC QB Jonathan Jennings hasn’t thrown over 200 yards in his two games this season and I think he’s going to struggle again in this difficult venue.
For all the reasons listed above, play on Winnipeg.
|06-29-18||Winnipeg v. Hamilton -3.5||Top||17-31||Win||100||36 h 26 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hamilton Tigercats (7:00 EST).
The Ti-Cats started off the season with consecutive games out West and they arrive back for their first home contest with a 1-1 record. The Blue Bombers are also 1-1 after two weeks in the books.
This is a revenge game of sorts for Hamilton, as Winnipeg has won three of the last four in the series.
The Blue Bombers come in off a 56-10 drubbing of the Alouettes in Montreal last week. QB Chris Streveler has thrown six TD’s in two games. He’d also rush one in against the Al’s. Winnipeg looked good on both sides of the ball, but I still think it’ll have its hands full with this dangerous and hungry home side.
Hamilton fell 28-14 in Calgary, but then it would travel North to Edmonton and leave with a convincing 38-21 victory. QB Jeremiah Masoli was 18 of 29 for 332 yards and three TD’s. Luke Tasker had 103 yards receiving, while Brandon Banks had 117. RB Mercer Timmis had 133 yards on 17 carries with two TD’s.
Winnipeg has been an ATS covering machine the last couple of seasons, but the new look Ti-Cats catch them off guard here in my opinion. And with a home and home set against BC starting next week, it’s not too difficult to imagine the Blue Bombers in some small way looking past their lowly opponent to that more meaningful stretch.
I’m banking on that happening. Play on Hamilton.
|06-28-18||Ottawa v. Calgary -7.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||36 h 18 m||Show|
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Calgary Stampeders (9:00 EST).
I think this will be a competitive battle throughout, but I look for the Stamps to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory and cover.
Last year these teams played each other in Weeks 1 and 2. Both games were tight, as they tied 31-31 in Ottawa, before the Stamps won 43-39 in Week 2 to stay unbeaten in four home meetings in the series.
The Redblacks rolled to a 40-17 win in their season opener over Saskatchewan, as QB Trevor Harris threw for 345 yards and a pair of major scores. William Powell was a bright spot on the ground with 94 yards and a TD as well.
Calgary got its revenge in Toronto after losing to the Argos in the Grey Cup last year, pulling away for a 41-7 blowout victory last week. QB Bo Levi Mitchell completed a franchise-best 90.9 percent of his passes for 324 yards and three TD’s. Eric Rogers was unstoppable as well with five catches for 131 yards and two scores. The combination of Terry Williams and Don Jackson also produced 193 yards on the ground.
It’s interesting to note though that Ottawa is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Calgary is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a home fav in the 7.5 to ten points range (also 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after two more SU victories.)
As mentioned off the top, I’m expecting a spirited battle from the visitors, but I think the Stamps come in razor focused and find a way to cover once it’s all said and done.
|06-22-18||Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton||Top||38-21||Win||100||37 h 51 m||Show|
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Hamilton Tigercats (10:00 EST).
The Ti-Cats were competitive in their 28-14 loss in Calgary last week and we think they’ll keep this one tight as well. QB Jeremiah Masoli had 344 yards passing and a rushing TD and that performance was good enough to keep backup QB Johnny Manziel sidelined for another week.
Hamilton went out signed former New Orleans Saints CB Delvin Breaux this week, and they’ll be hoping to a return to form after recent injuries.
Edmonton had its hands full in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win at Winnipeg. Mike Reilly had a big game with 408 yards, a TD, while also rushing for two scores. Receiver Derel Walker had eight catches for 176 yards, including a 101 yard TD reception. Note though that three starters were lost in the victory, including left tackle Tommie Draheim, linebacker Adam Konar and defensive tackle Mike Moore.
I’ll point out as well that Hamilton is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Edmonton is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range.
With a game at home to BC next week, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent.
While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that Hamilton will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.
Grab the points.
|06-16-18||Hamilton v. Calgary -7.5||Top||14-28||Win||100||41 h 26 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Calgary Stampeders (7:00 EST).
Calgary is looking to take out its frustrations on someone in its opening game after being upset in the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons. While Hamilton should improve after a disastrous 2017, I think it’s completely outclassed on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines.
Somehow Toronto pulled off the 27-24 upset last year. Calgary is once again one of the favs to win it all this season, sitting around +140 to win the West, including +200 to win the Grey Cup.
The Ti-Cats signed ex Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel over the offseason, but he’s not starting this game and may not even see any action whatsoever. Jeremiah Masoli is the man under center for the visitors and he had a decent showing last year with 3,177 yards, 15 TD’s and 446 rushing yards in 12 total appearances last year. Hamilton also features a trio of decent receivers in Jalen Saunders, Luke Tasker and Brandon banks.
The Stamps have a significant advantage at QB with Bo Levi Mitchell. Mitchell hasn’t missed a game since 2014 and over that time he holds most of the leagues passing records. Note that when these teams played in Calgary last year, the Stampeders annihilated Hamilton by a score of 60-1.
Calgary’s strength though actually lies on the defensive side of the ball, as the unit finished first in virtually every defensive statistical category there is last season.
For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.