Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-23 | Eastern Michigan +20 v. Toledo | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Chris Creighton is 32-14-1 ATS as a road underdog at Eastern Michigan. Worth a sprinkle if you are looking for action tonight. |
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01-11-20 | James Madison +1.5 v. North Dakota State | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 450 h 39 m | Show | |
Well we have the two best teams in FCS football playing in the championship as North Dakota State takes on James Madison. Quite simply for me, the Dukes are the better team and I think they will win this one outright. Depending upon the book you use, the Circa in Las Vegas has the Dukes -2 while 5Dimes has North Dakota State -1.5. For the first time in school history, James Madison has a 1,000 yard rusher and a 1,000 yard receiver. Their defensive line features at least two potential NFL prospects in John Daka and Ron'Dell Carter while Rashad Robinson is one of the best corners in the FCS. Add in a quarterback that is ridiculously efficient in Ben DiNucci and a coach in Curt Cignetti that is pushing all the right buttons and you have a national champion. North Dakota State's QB Trey Lance has been very good and doesn't force a lot of turnovers. They have a rotation of running backs and several solid receivers out wide. The defense is very good as well, but this team as a whole is really young. Their dynasty has been one of the best in NCAA history, but it's not like the team out of the CAA is a slouch either. DiNucci last year had one bad game preventing potentially another rematch between the two. Here's the thing...this game is still a few weeks away. There certainly could be injuries and/or suspensions that will change things on either roster. That's why I'd tread lightly right now. I'm taking James Madison and may add more to it as we get closer to kickoff once I know everything is OK. The other good thing about James Madison is their depth. There aren't a ton of positions where the backup is that much worse. It's JMU's year and I'm taking them to win it all. ** Certainly take them as a dog....if they become a favorite, then I'd consider the ML more then the spread especially if it gets above 2 ** |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47.5 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
It's Bud Foster's final game as defensive coordinator for the Hokies and they get Kentucky on Tuesday. The Wildcats offense is predicated on Lynn Bowden Jr's mobility and the ground game. Last month they ran the ball an average of 51 times per game. VT has the 27th ranked rushing defense and has held their last seven opponents to less than 150 rushing yards. Normally I'd be worried that Caleb Farley is not a guarantee for Tech because he's their best corner but he wouldn't be very busy anyways. Power 5 teams averaged just under 20 points per game against UK's defense. The Hokies offense is solid, but very one dimensional. They can't run it very well even with the return of Jalen Holston so that puts more on Hendon Hooker who has been very good down the stretch. He's got amazing receivers with everyone healthy now. The Wildcats have the 2nd best pass rush by the numbers in the SEC. Another key factor is that both teams have amazing punters which will help the under and make each team have to drive long drives in order to score. I just don't know how either team gets to 24 points unless there's a massive turnover issue which neither team has. Give me the under here. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky UNDER 54.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 45 m | Show | |
The Hilltoppers boast the best scoring defense in Conference USA and have allowed just 20.1 points per game in 12 games. WKU allowed an average of 137.3 yards rushing per game. The group features C-USA Defensive Player of the Year DeAngelo Malone, who was tied for fourth in the country with 21 tackles for loss and 11th in the nation with 11.5 sacks when receiving the honor. Only two schools ran for 200 yards on the Hilltoppers this year and they were the two power five schools on Western Kentucky’s schedule. The problems for the Toppers come on offense where they are just okay. They want to run it and use their superiority up front. Western Michigan's offense is going to be one of the best WKU has seen this season. They have popped off quite a bit this season, but they've also failed to see too many defenses like this. The Broncos want to run the ball which will take some time off the clock. WMU has gone under in eight of their 12 games while Western Kentucky has gone under in half of their contests. I think this one features a bit more ball control. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson -117 v. Ohio State | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 32 m | Show | |
Quite simply, I think Clemson is the best team in the country and it seems like they are relishing playing third fiddle to Ohio State and LSU. These two teams are ridiculously similar with strong offenses and even stronger defenses. The Tigers average just over 46 points per game while the Buckeyes average just over 48. Yes, Clemson played a ridiculously easy schedule, but they took care of business smashing everyone except UNC. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are a potent duo and that doesn't even include the WRs out wide and Etienne's backup as well. Ohio State has also been rolling as of late although Justin Fields did come out recently and say his ankle still isn't 100%. Hasn't mattered down the stretch, but the defense has shown some cracks. They gave up chunk plays to both Michigan and Wisconsin away from home where their defense just isn't as strong. This is really personal preference to me. I'm a guy who thinks Clemson is just the better team, but you could think OSU is. I like Dabo in a big game and Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in football. |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State v. Wake Forest +4 | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Michigan State is 6-6 and has limped down the stretch. Sure, the Spartans beat Rutgers and Maryland in their last two games, but pretty much everyone beat those two. The more concerning part is that they scored only 46 points against two awful defenses and have put up just 97 their last five games overall. There's no questioning Sparty's defense although you can beat them through the air. Illinois threw for 369 yards in their 37-34 win in East Lansing. Wake Forest has lost three of their last four, but they were ravaged by injuries on offense. Even with those problems they still managed to put up a combined 69 points on Duke and Syracuse. The big problem for this team is their defense that has been awful against the run and the pass. They will be without safety Nasir Greer who was honorable mention all-ACC. Still, what's the motivation for Michigan State to show up in this game in a baseball stadium against a perceived lower level ACC team. I'll take the Demon Deacons plus the points. One other thing to consider is that Wake's kicker has missed one FG all year while Sparty's has missed nine. Give me the dog here. |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 406 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm going to lock in this play now as I don't want to lose the value of the line and where it's at. Miami just finished up a 6-6 season and now has to head to Shreveport to take on Louisiana Tech. The Hurricanes traditionally have not shown up for games like this as they think this stuff is below them. Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry are vying for the quarterback position as Miami tries to find who will best suit the offense. The Canes have lost to FIU and Duke their last two games after a three game win streak.
** Watch the headlines to see who may or may not play in this one. It will severely change my thoughts here, but as of now this is my play ** |
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12-21-19 | Weber State v. James Madison UNDER 47 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 93 h 47 m | Show | |
I missed the value of 51 on this one, but I still think we see an under in JMU/Weber State game. The Dukes offense was uncharacteristically sloppy last week in the win over Northern Iowa. The thing is that their defense was lock down once again. JMU's front line with Greene, Daka and Carter is immense and will shut down run games. I think the Dukes will improve on offense, but once again Weber State is going to struggle to score. Weber's offense did just enough last week in the snow against Montana. They have a very mediocre quarterback in Jake Constantine who nearly has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns. They have a mediocre run game and some decent weapons on the outside, but what the Wildcats are known for is their defense. They held San Diego State to just six points in week one and then a few weeks later did solid work against Nevada. I think this one could be a bit of a field position battle. I liked it a lot more at 51 but at 47, I think it's still worth a look. I can see a 31-10 type game. |
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12-21-19 | Montana State v. North Dakota State UNDER 47 | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show | |
These two teams have a ton of similarities. NDSU is No. 5 in the FCS with 285.9 rushing yards per game and Montana State is No. 7 with 265.9, but neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher. The Bobcats are No. 9 with 107.1 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bison are No. 30 with 134.7. The Bison have 41 sacks and have allowed 12. MSU has 41 sacks and have allowed 13. These two teams want to move the ball on the ground and I don't know if they'll be successful. In their last three games, the defending champions are averaging 22.3 PPG and 363.0 YPG. Montana State is averaging nearly 40 points per game over that same span as well. I think it's a field position battle between these two. I don't know if someone gets to 27 so I'm feeling it could be a 21-10 game. The one worry is that the Bison snap out of their doldrums and blow this thing out, but I just don't see that happening. ** I'd play this down to 45 or so. If you wait maybe the total sails up a bit and there's more value ** |
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12-20-19 | Kent State +5 v. Utah State | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show | |
If you got in early on this one, then you are feeling good with the Jordan Love news. The Aggies quarterback was pinched for marijuana along with leading rusher Gerold Bright. One has to believe that the two will miss some time and potentially the whole game. Behind Love is a lightly used quarterback who saw mostly mop up duty. I really don't love the Aggies and how they closed things out down the stretch on defense. Linebacker David Woodward will miss his fifth straight game and you notice his absence on the run defense. Momentum is a big thing in these games and Kent State has it. They've won three straight and have covered each of their last five as an underdog. Dustin Crum has 2,336 yards and 18 TDs to 2 INT and leads the team in rushing yards.. Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall. The Flashes will get starting junior safety Qwuantrezz Knight back from a head injury that kept him out of action the past two games. I think USU losing Love is pretty big. Kent State's defense isn't great, but if Bright is out too even for a period, that's huge. I'm taking the MAC school as I think they have a shot outright. ** I'd consider Kent State in 1H too. The Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. ** |
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12-14-19 | Army +10.5 v. Navy | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 41 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. |
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12-13-19 | Northern Iowa v. James Madison UNDER 46 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
James Madison hosts Northern Iowa on Friday night at 7 o clock on ESPN2. The Dukes average nearly 500 yards of offense as they feature a full backfield with several running backs and an efficient passing attack led by Ben DiNucci. It's a little tough to take an under with this team because they've scored a ton on everyone. This squad also third in total defense and features a ferocious front line and a stout secondary. UNI is 11th in the FCS in total defense and 14th in scoring defense. The Panthers allowed only 220 yards against South Dakota State and 213 against San Diego. They've played road games in Ames Iowa and Fargo North Dakota so they won't be intimidated by Harrisonburg. The common thread for a lot of the steps up in competition for the Panthers is a lack of offense. They put up 26 on Iowa State in week 1, 14 on North Dakota State and 13 on South Dakota State last week. The worry is that they go three and out a ton and the game gets away from them. There's also going to be some precipitation in the forecast which could effect some things. I don't think JMU will be worried about it because they are balanced, but maybe it causes issues for UNI. I'll take my chances with the under in this one. |
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12-07-19 | Virginia v. Clemson OVER 54.5 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
The ACC Championship figures to be a blowout on Saturday night as Clemson takes the final step towards another playoff berth. The Tigers are averaging over 45 points per game as a unit while putting up almost 550 yards. Their coach Dabo Swinney has played the disrespect card and will want to use this platform to remind everyone how good they are. The best thing for this matchup is how banged up UVA is in the secondary. They let Hendon Hooker throw all over them last week and his attack is nowhere near as good as Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne should be able to find some holes against this front seven. On the other side, Clemson's defense is putting up epic numbers, but I think they are facing their best offense of the season in the Wahoos. UVA is averaging over 30 points per game and features Bryce Perkins who is the 2nd best QB in the ACC. UVA has scored 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six. I think Perkins will be able to keep Clemson honest enough. The Hoos have gone over in eight of their 12 games this year. I just see a lot of points in this on one Saturday. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 63 h 16 m | Show | |
The winner of this SEC game will get their spot in the FBS playoffs. The Tigers are 12-0 and are putting up almost 50 points per game. Joe Burrow and this offense have scored 45 or more in four straight games, but outside of Alabama, I'm not too impressed with the defenses they've faced. Georgia allowed 151 rushing yards against three ranked foes, and it held Notre Dame and Florida under 50. LSU's defense has struggled at times, but I'm really not that scared of Georgia's offense. The Bulldogs put up 52 on a bad Georgia Tech team, but scored 67 points the previous three weeks and have been inconsistent on that side of the ball. Lawrence Cager got hurt and George Pickens is out for the first half after getting ejected last week. D'Andre Swift is the team's star running back, but he's not 100%. UGA's run defense has been awesome the past few weeks and the secondary has it's moments. Last year LSU won this game 36-16 at home with a 16-0 halftime score. |
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12-07-19 | Kennesaw State v. Weber State UNDER 56.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 62 h 3 m | Show | |
Kennesaw State is coming off a 28-21 road win at Wofford in round one of the FCS playos. In that game, quarterback Tommy Bryant suffered a leg injury and backup Jonathan Murphy came in to rush for 206 yards and three touchdowns. This team wants to run it as they average nearly 350 yards on the ground per game. Kennesaw has held seven opponents to 20 points or less and nearly knocked off their FBS opponent Kent State 26-23 in overtime. Another factor to consider here is that this will be their fourth road game over their last five. Weber State has had the week off to prepare for this one and is ninth in the FCS with 107.3 rushing yards allowed per game. They've held seven opponents to 20 points or less and are very familiar with the triple option as they've seen Cal Poly four straight years. Over the last four seasons, the Wildcats have held Cal Poly to an average of 12 points less and 128 rushing yards less than their usual scoring and rushing averages. I just think we see a lot of rushing and some long possessions. Give me the under here. |