Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-23 | Eastern Michigan +20 v. Toledo | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Chris Creighton is 32-14-1 ATS as a road underdog at Eastern Michigan. Worth a sprinkle if you are looking for action tonight. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show | |
My favorite play in the Super Bowl is the first quarter under. When you look at the Super Bowl, you see these teams thrown off a bit because of the longer pregame and the longer commercial breaks. Football players are creatures of habit so it may take some time for both sides to get into a rhythm. In my scenario, San Francisco receives the ball and goes on a time consuming drive leaving Kansas City very little time for a rebuttal. As long as both teams don't score TD's I think we're good. I like it less if it's 10, but at 10.5 points fire away. Trae Young -0.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards -- Trae Young is taking on the Mavericks and is coming off a tremendous effort against the Sixers where he had 39 pts, 18 assists and 6 rebounds. He averages 28.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg and 9 apg on the road which is good for around 41. Emmanuel Sanders just hasn't been part of the game plan the past few weeks. He's more of the possession type receiver and I think Bourne and Deebo Samuel are more involved. Take a shot with Young out-performing Sanders yards. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 3 m | Show | |
There was a money move on the over and I think it was what I needed to push me towards the under. I think some of that move is because of Aaron Rodgers and the mystique surrounding him. Green Bay lost 37-8 to the 49ers way back on November 24th in a game that saw Rodgers struggle and San Fran get whatever they wanted. There's been some personnel changes since then that have made the 49ers and Packers even a bit stronger. Nick Bosa will have his best friend Dee Ford with him up front and the duo was in the top 15 of PFF's pass rushing grades when they played together. Jimmy Garoppolo was really efficient and the run game grinded out 5.1 yards per carry in that one. Joe Staley will be available for this one and he wasn't in the last meeting when Green Bay had three sacks. On the other side you've got the Packers whose defense has allowed 23 points or less in six straight contests since the MNF loss. They've been better against the run and have put together some solid performances in the secondary. Yes, Rodgers is scary when it comes to the postseason, but I'm guessing there will be a plan for Davante Adams. GB has gone under in 10 of their 17 contests this season including six of their last eight. This one just feels like a 24-20 contest. ** I'd also consider the Niners in the 1st quarter especially if it's anything less then -3. I'm just not as much of a buyer on the Packers as others are ** |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 24-35 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 27 m | Show | |
Going off the recency effect, people are jumping on the over as they saw KC put up over 50 points on Houston. They also saw these two play in Nashville back in November with a score of 35-32 going to the Titans. That game saw Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards and three touchdowns while Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards and two TDs. Fast forward to now and we're seeing an improved KC defense and a Tennessee team that has some intriguing pieces. These two played in KC in the playoffs back in January of 2018 that saw the Titans win 23-22. They ran the ball a ton in that one and controlled the clock. The same didn't occur back in November which I think the Titans will want to change. I can see Tennessee running it even more then they usually do because the best defense against Mahomes is not allowing him to have the ball. During this playoff run, the Titans have run it 77 times to just 31 passes. It's going to be a hold your nose situation because points will be scored here, but I think the under is definitely in play. ** I'd wait til Sunday to make this selection and see if it goes up a little bit more for some value. ** |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 47 | 23-28 | Loss | -103 | 90 h 6 m | Show | |
It's going to be bitterly cold in Green Bay as the Packers and Seahawks play in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has gone under in four straight and seven of their last eight games as the offense has failed to produce a ton and the defense has been fantastic. Aaron Rodgers has had a mixed bag season so far and I don't know if the run game is good enough to threaten Seattle's vulnerable defense. Green Bay down the stretch has held five straight opponents to 20 points or less. The lineup of offenses outside of Minnesota are not that great with the Giants, Skins, Bears and Lions joining the Vikes. Their pass rush is going to give Russell Wilson fits I think especially if they keep him in the pocket. On the Seattle side, the offense has scored 21 points or less in three straight and five of their last seven. They arguably shouldn't be in this game if not for a dirty hit on Carson Wentz. The Seahawks don't run it well so that puts a lot on the passing game and Wilson. Seattle's defense is nothing great which is a worry here on the total. Last year's game was a 27-24 Seattle win at home, but the previous meeting in September of 2017 was a 17-9 game. I see this one lining up in the middle and going under the total. |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 51 | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 87 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams played way back on October 13th with Houston winning 31-24 after a 23-17 halftime score. Houston was able to move the ball on the ground and found some success with Deshaun Watson despite him having the turnover issue. Houston's secondary is very vulnerable and I feel like with a week off, Andy Reid will put some wrinkles in to confuse the Texans. Coming off their late bye week back in early December, KC won 40-9 against the Raiders at home. Reid has been fantastic off bye weeks and has the massive advantage over Bill O'Brien on the sidelines. On the other side KC's defensive renaissance, to me, is a product of them facing extremely weak opponents. They held the Raiders, Pats, Broncos, Bears and Chargers to 52 points and none of those are that good. I can see Pat Mahomes getting whatever he wants through the air and I can see Watson doing what he wants as well. These two played back in 2017 with KC winning in Houston 42-34. I think this one should be a shootout on Sunday. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
The Titans slayed New England and now have to head to Baltimore for their third straight road game. Tennessee beat the Pats 20-13 and did so by running it really well and playing stifling defense against a weaker offense. Both BAL and TEN have slanted heavily to the over this year, but I think their styles match up well for this one to go under early. Tennessee is going to want to run the ball with Derrick Henry to keep Baltimore off the field. They'll mix in some Tannehill throws, but the last three weeks they've run it 105 times to just 64 pass attempts. The Titans defense has done pretty well against the run holding seven of their last eight opponents to 140 yards on the ground or less. They've been a mixed bag when it comes to facing the pass, but there could be rain in the forecast so who knows how effective these two will be at passing it. On the Baltimore side, you've got an offense that's playing their first game with the starters since December 22nd against Cleveland. The Ravens sat their key offensive guys in the 28-10 home win over the Steelers. Baltimore is another team that wants to run it with 107 rushes and 80 passes the last three weeks that they had their starters in. The Ravens defense has held four straight opponents to 110 rushing yards or less and their secondary has been awesome since giving up 268 yards through the air to New England back in early November. I think both of these teams grind out some possessions with plenty of runs and I think there could be an early feeling out process as well.
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01-11-20 | James Madison +1.5 v. North Dakota State | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 450 h 39 m | Show | |
Well we have the two best teams in FCS football playing in the championship as North Dakota State takes on James Madison. Quite simply for me, the Dukes are the better team and I think they will win this one outright. Depending upon the book you use, the Circa in Las Vegas has the Dukes -2 while 5Dimes has North Dakota State -1.5. For the first time in school history, James Madison has a 1,000 yard rusher and a 1,000 yard receiver. Their defensive line features at least two potential NFL prospects in John Daka and Ron'Dell Carter while Rashad Robinson is one of the best corners in the FCS. Add in a quarterback that is ridiculously efficient in Ben DiNucci and a coach in Curt Cignetti that is pushing all the right buttons and you have a national champion. North Dakota State's QB Trey Lance has been very good and doesn't force a lot of turnovers. They have a rotation of running backs and several solid receivers out wide. The defense is very good as well, but this team as a whole is really young. Their dynasty has been one of the best in NCAA history, but it's not like the team out of the CAA is a slouch either. DiNucci last year had one bad game preventing potentially another rematch between the two. Here's the thing...this game is still a few weeks away. There certainly could be injuries and/or suspensions that will change things on either roster. That's why I'd tread lightly right now. I'm taking James Madison and may add more to it as we get closer to kickoff once I know everything is OK. The other good thing about James Madison is their depth. There aren't a ton of positions where the backup is that much worse. It's JMU's year and I'm taking them to win it all. ** Certainly take them as a dog....if they become a favorite, then I'd consider the ML more then the spread especially if it gets above 2 ** |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
Everyone is throwing dirt on the Patriots after limping down the stretch to a 2-3 record. New England's offense is on a run of scoring 24 points or more in three straight games, but that is coming after a stretch scoring less than that five times. The Pats defense is coming off giving up 27 points to the Dolphins, but I think the unit will play better. At home they've held the Bills to 17, the Chiefs to 23 and the Cowboys to 9. Stephon Gilmore should be improved and have a lot of success against AJ Brown. Tennessee is really hot and a team that has a great offense statistically. It could be argued though that they haven't see a very good defense in quite awhile. Seeing a healthy diet of Houston, Oakland, Indy, Jacksonville and New Orleans down the stretch will inflate anyone's numbers. The concern for the under is if the Titans defense can slow down the Pats enough. Last year the Titans won 34-10 at home over the Pats. I just think the total is a little too high and the weather could be a bit of an issue too. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 41 h 15 m | Show | |
The Bills and Texans start things off on Saturday in the NFL Playoffs. Buffalo's defense is holding opponents to around 16 points per game and under 300 yards per contest as well. Since allowing 31 points to the Eagles back in late October, they've given up 20 points or less seven times. It's very hard to run on Buffalo and the secondary has been pretty solid for the most part. The Bills offense concerns me as they've scored 20 points or less in four straight and five of their last six. Houston's defense isn't great, but it looks like JJ Watt is coming back which will be a huge help. They aren't good at stopping the pass but I just don't think Buffalo can take advantage. The Texans offense doesn't run it very well so that puts more pressure on Deshaun Watson. These two played in Houston last year with the home team winning 20-13. I think we see another low scoring game. 3% at 44 |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47.5 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
It's Bud Foster's final game as defensive coordinator for the Hokies and they get Kentucky on Tuesday. The Wildcats offense is predicated on Lynn Bowden Jr's mobility and the ground game. Last month they ran the ball an average of 51 times per game. VT has the 27th ranked rushing defense and has held their last seven opponents to less than 150 rushing yards. Normally I'd be worried that Caleb Farley is not a guarantee for Tech because he's their best corner but he wouldn't be very busy anyways. Power 5 teams averaged just under 20 points per game against UK's defense. The Hokies offense is solid, but very one dimensional. They can't run it very well even with the return of Jalen Holston so that puts more on Hendon Hooker who has been very good down the stretch. He's got amazing receivers with everyone healthy now. The Wildcats have the 2nd best pass rush by the numbers in the SEC. Another key factor is that both teams have amazing punters which will help the under and make each team have to drive long drives in order to score. I just don't know how either team gets to 24 points unless there's a massive turnover issue which neither team has. Give me the under here. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan v. Western Kentucky UNDER 54.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 45 m | Show | |
The Hilltoppers boast the best scoring defense in Conference USA and have allowed just 20.1 points per game in 12 games. WKU allowed an average of 137.3 yards rushing per game. The group features C-USA Defensive Player of the Year DeAngelo Malone, who was tied for fourth in the country with 21 tackles for loss and 11th in the nation with 11.5 sacks when receiving the honor. Only two schools ran for 200 yards on the Hilltoppers this year and they were the two power five schools on Western Kentucky’s schedule. The problems for the Toppers come on offense where they are just okay. They want to run it and use their superiority up front. Western Michigan's offense is going to be one of the best WKU has seen this season. They have popped off quite a bit this season, but they've also failed to see too many defenses like this. The Broncos want to run the ball which will take some time off the clock. WMU has gone under in eight of their 12 games while Western Kentucky has gone under in half of their contests. I think this one features a bit more ball control. |
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12-29-19 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 59 m | Show | |
There's no guarantee that a team who needs to win in week 17 will actually do it. Philly just needs to win and they are in, but they are coming off a highly emotional game at home against Dallas and will not have Zach Ertz either. These two played earlier in the month with Eli Manning under center and they nearly won in Philly 23-17. The Eagles have so many injuries although Jordan Howard will be returning and Lane Johnson is questionable. Still, there's not a ton of weapons and Philly's defense has had it's issues on the road. The Eagles D gave up 27 in Washington, 37 in Miami and 37 in Dallas. The Giants have won their last two and the offense has looked really good. They put up 36 on Miami at home and 41 in Washington last time out. Daniel Jones has improved and is doing well when he's not turning it over. I think New York would thoroughly enjoy ruining the Eagles season. Give me the home underdog here that's not trying to tank away their season. |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 52 m | Show | |
The Steelers need to win and get help in order to get in the playoffs. They've been playing some terrible football on offense scoring just 10 points the last two weeks in games against the Bills and Jets. This is their third road game over the last four weeks and their fifth in their last seven. Devlin Hodges is under center and he's struggled terribly. The backup is Paxton Lynch who won't help much either. They can't run it with James Conner and Maurkice Pouncey out and the passing game is weak too. Yes, the defense has been awesome holding five straight opponents to 20 points or less. Baltimore is sitting a lot of their starters meaning RG3 is getting the call at QB and this is an audition for him to show other teams he's still got it. Now, they can't sit all of their starters, but Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Mark Ingram are all out. There's some good backups behind them and I just don't have faith in Pittsburgh. Plus, the Titans game will be on at the same time so who knows how that will effect the team. I like the home dogs in this one. |
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12-29-19 | Cardinals +8.5 v. Rams | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
12-29-19 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show | |
There are games in week 17 where neither team cares and plenty of points are scored. We saw that in week 16 with the Skins/Giants and Bengals/Dolphins contests. These two played in Atlanta back on November 24th with the Bucs winning 35-22 on the road. Since then the Falcons have scored 18, 40, 29 and 24 as Matt Ryan tries to finish with a flourish. The Atlanta defense has played well as of late, but the over has gone over in three of it's last five. On the other side, Tampa Bay saw it's streak of 28 points or more scored end at four straight after they only put up 20 on the Texans at home. Jameis Winston was in a giving mood once again and is part of the reason why the over is always so live. Winston is playing for his future and to keep up as the defense has struggled against the pass. They are in decent form right now, but once again in this final game, I think we get a back and forth contest. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson -117 v. Ohio State | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 32 m | Show | |
Quite simply, I think Clemson is the best team in the country and it seems like they are relishing playing third fiddle to Ohio State and LSU. These two teams are ridiculously similar with strong offenses and even stronger defenses. The Tigers average just over 46 points per game while the Buckeyes average just over 48. Yes, Clemson played a ridiculously easy schedule, but they took care of business smashing everyone except UNC. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are a potent duo and that doesn't even include the WRs out wide and Etienne's backup as well. Ohio State has also been rolling as of late although Justin Fields did come out recently and say his ankle still isn't 100%. Hasn't mattered down the stretch, but the defense has shown some cracks. They gave up chunk plays to both Michigan and Wisconsin away from home where their defense just isn't as strong. This is really personal preference to me. I'm a guy who thinks Clemson is just the better team, but you could think OSU is. I like Dabo in a big game and Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in football. |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State v. Wake Forest +4 | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Michigan State is 6-6 and has limped down the stretch. Sure, the Spartans beat Rutgers and Maryland in their last two games, but pretty much everyone beat those two. The more concerning part is that they scored only 46 points against two awful defenses and have put up just 97 their last five games overall. There's no questioning Sparty's defense although you can beat them through the air. Illinois threw for 369 yards in their 37-34 win in East Lansing. Wake Forest has lost three of their last four, but they were ravaged by injuries on offense. Even with those problems they still managed to put up a combined 69 points on Duke and Syracuse. The big problem for this team is their defense that has been awful against the run and the pass. They will be without safety Nasir Greer who was honorable mention all-ACC. Still, what's the motivation for Michigan State to show up in this game in a baseball stadium against a perceived lower level ACC team. I'll take the Demon Deacons plus the points. One other thing to consider is that Wake's kicker has missed one FG all year while Sparty's has missed nine. Give me the dog here. |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 406 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm going to lock in this play now as I don't want to lose the value of the line and where it's at. Miami just finished up a 6-6 season and now has to head to Shreveport to take on Louisiana Tech. The Hurricanes traditionally have not shown up for games like this as they think this stuff is below them. Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry are vying for the quarterback position as Miami tries to find who will best suit the offense. The Canes have lost to FIU and Duke their last two games after a three game win streak.
** Watch the headlines to see who may or may not play in this one. It will severely change my thoughts here, but as of now this is my play ** |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | 26-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I think this line is a little high on Sunday night as the Bears host the Chiefs. Chicago has won three of their last four, but are coming of a 21-13 loss to Green Bay in which the offense did it's part, but things just didn't go their way. Still, this team has played well at home as of late winning each of their last three there. The defense is back in it's groove having held five of their last seven opponents to 20 points or less. KC has won four straight, but their last loss came against Tennessee on the road just over a month ago in a game like this against a tough nosed team that will grind it out a little bit and make KC have to work for it's points. I'm not a huge believer that this defense has turned it around all of a sudden. They've faced four straight weaker offenses in LA, Oakland, New England and Denver. The Bears have covered seven of their last nine as a home underdog with one other game being a push. They are 15-8-1 against the spread the last three seasons at home. I think they can make things interesting here. |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
It's a huge game for the Seahawks in terms of the one seed in the NFC as they host the Cardinals. Seattle's been living on the edge this season with just one double digit victory which happened to come against Arizona. Back on September 29th, the Seahawks won 27-10 in a game that saw them up 20-3 at halftime. Arizona has played better as of late and is coming off a 38-24 win over Cleveland in which its offense sizzled and its defense even made a few plays too. This team has won in New York against the Giants and had close losses at Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The Seahawks just wrapped up a stretch of four of five games on the road that featured a ton of travel. They also host the 49ers next week in a much larger game. Seattle's defense is ridiculously banged up with Jadeveon Clowney and Quandre Diggs out as well as Duane Brown on the offense. Seattle is 9-12-1 against the spread over their last three seasons at home including 2-4 this year. Give me the road team to make things interesting. |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans +3 | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 61 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a spot play here on the home team as they bounce back from a tough loss to the Texans. It snapped their four game win streak which saw the offense go nuts. Tennessee is one of those teams that are really hard to figure out, but here outside, I like their chances. This is the same team that beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home back on November 10th. With Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill now, you could see them play some ball control and keep it away from a banged up Saints team. New Orleans is coming off an emotional stretch where they had the duel with the 49ers at home and then they got Drew Brees the record on Monday Night. Tennessee has covered eight of their last 11 non-conference games including two of three this year. The home team is a lot healthier and is in a buy low situation after coming up small against Houston at home last week. |
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12-22-19 | Bengals -123 v. Dolphins | 35-38 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
This game won't be on many people's radar unless you are rooting for the number one pick. The long and short of it is that the wrong team was favored and arguably the squad with less wins has played better as of late. Yes Cincy got blasted last week by the Pats, but of course they had film of what the Bengals wanted to do. Before that the team had three single digit losses and a 22-6 win over the Jets. With Andy Dalton playing for his future and Joe Mixon who has been successful as of late, they've got more talent then Miami. Cincy's defense has been sneaky good as a unit and are semi healthy as well. The Fins had that stretch of games where they competed and won two straight. Since then, they've lost four of five with three of those being by 16 or more. There's no real run game and the defense has been ravaged by injuries. I think the Bengals can and should win this outright. |
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12-22-19 | Steelers v. Jets +3.5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Recency bias comes into play here. The betting public saw the Jets get thrashed in Baltimore last Thursday night and are running to the window on the Steelers. This is a New York team that has played better at home with wins over the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders and Dolphins there. Yes, the Jets aren't great, but their secondary has actually played better and they've been very good against the run. Sam Darnold hopefully won't be seeing ghosts in this game, but you know Le'Veon Bell will be motivated to see his former team. It does scare me that Adam Gase is an idiot. On the other side, Pittsburgh has won three of their last four and are coming off a 17-10 home loss to Buffalo. Their quarterback situation is brutal with Duck Hodges being the "best" option right now. The run game has struggled a bit as James Conner has been banged up. This team struggled to win in Cincinnati and Arizona in their last two road games. I'm playing the spot here as the Steelers have the Ravens next week and if Baltimore wins this week, then they'll play backups in week 17. Last home game for the Jets and I'll take them here on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 13-19-1 ATS the last three seasons as a favorite and 4-7-1 ATS as a road favorite over that span. |
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12-21-19 | Weber State v. James Madison UNDER 47 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 93 h 47 m | Show | |
I missed the value of 51 on this one, but I still think we see an under in JMU/Weber State game. The Dukes offense was uncharacteristically sloppy last week in the win over Northern Iowa. The thing is that their defense was lock down once again. JMU's front line with Greene, Daka and Carter is immense and will shut down run games. I think the Dukes will improve on offense, but once again Weber State is going to struggle to score. Weber's offense did just enough last week in the snow against Montana. They have a very mediocre quarterback in Jake Constantine who nearly has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns. They have a mediocre run game and some decent weapons on the outside, but what the Wildcats are known for is their defense. They held San Diego State to just six points in week one and then a few weeks later did solid work against Nevada. I think this one could be a bit of a field position battle. I liked it a lot more at 51 but at 47, I think it's still worth a look. I can see a 31-10 type game. |
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12-21-19 | Montana State v. North Dakota State UNDER 47 | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show | |
These two teams have a ton of similarities. NDSU is No. 5 in the FCS with 285.9 rushing yards per game and Montana State is No. 7 with 265.9, but neither team has a 1,000-yard rusher. The Bobcats are No. 9 with 107.1 rushing yards allowed per game while the Bison are No. 30 with 134.7. The Bison have 41 sacks and have allowed 12. MSU has 41 sacks and have allowed 13. These two teams want to move the ball on the ground and I don't know if they'll be successful. In their last three games, the defending champions are averaging 22.3 PPG and 363.0 YPG. Montana State is averaging nearly 40 points per game over that same span as well. I think it's a field position battle between these two. I don't know if someone gets to 27 so I'm feeling it could be a 21-10 game. The one worry is that the Bison snap out of their doldrums and blow this thing out, but I just don't see that happening. ** I'd play this down to 45 or so. If you wait maybe the total sails up a bit and there's more value ** |
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12-20-19 | Kent State +5 v. Utah State | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show | |
If you got in early on this one, then you are feeling good with the Jordan Love news. The Aggies quarterback was pinched for marijuana along with leading rusher Gerold Bright. One has to believe that the two will miss some time and potentially the whole game. Behind Love is a lightly used quarterback who saw mostly mop up duty. I really don't love the Aggies and how they closed things out down the stretch on defense. Linebacker David Woodward will miss his fifth straight game and you notice his absence on the run defense. Momentum is a big thing in these games and Kent State has it. They've won three straight and have covered each of their last five as an underdog. Dustin Crum has 2,336 yards and 18 TDs to 2 INT and leads the team in rushing yards.. Kent State scored 30+ points in five of its final six games overall. The Flashes will get starting junior safety Qwuantrezz Knight back from a head injury that kept him out of action the past two games. I think USU losing Love is pretty big. Kent State's defense isn't great, but if Bright is out too even for a period, that's huge. I'm taking the MAC school as I think they have a shot outright. ** I'd consider Kent State in 1H too. The Aggies have surrendered a whopping 87 first-half points over their previous three games, with 73 coming in their final two games of the season. ** |
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12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers -109 | 17-10 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 29 m | Show | |
The Steelers have been consistently undersold by Vegas it seems this season and I feel like we're getting some value here with the home team on Sunday night. The Steelers D is holding opponents to less then 20 points per contest. They've clamped down against the pass and are also doing work against the run. Pittsburgh's offense has improved with Duck Hodges under center. They also potentially could get James Conner back which will help. Buffalo has won three of their last four and is coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Ravens. They did pretty well against Lamar Jackson and already have wins at Tennessee, Miami and Dallas this season. Still, I'm not a huge believer of their offense. Yes, Josh Allen is getting better, but he doesn't have a ton of weapons to worry about. Give me Pittsburgh in an almost straight up situation. |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +2.5 | 39-10 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a play on a competent home team that's getting points against a potential look-ahead situation. Minnesota has lost two of their last three road games and have played four of their last six away from home. The Vikings are in the mix for both the division and the wild card in the NFC, but have home games against division rival Green Bay and Chicago coming up next. They will get a boost most likely from the return of Adam Thielen, but LA's defense is getting healthier too. Derwin James is back at safety and he's a huge piece to the puzzle. The Chargers saw their three game losing streak snapped last week in a 45-10 win over Jacksonville. LA's been able to run the ball and seemingly has had Philip Rivers play a little bit better. Their defense is pretty much back intact and the unit is tough to run and throw on. Combine that with a 10-12 ATS record the last three years with Minnesota away from home and I think LA could potentially win the game outright. |
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12-15-19 | Jaguars v. Raiders -6.5 | 20-16 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jaguars have quit on the season and it shows on the field. They've lost five in a row and have been outscored by 117 points over that span which included road games at Indy and Tennessee. The offense isn't doing enough no matter who is under center and the defense is getting crushed by their opponent's ground game. Oakland has lost three straight and is in a bad spot themselves, but it looks like Josh Jacobs could be back to revive the run game and the passing attack should get going too. Also, this is the team's last home game in Oakland so you know it'll be loud and emotional. I just think Jacksonville has quit and Doug Marrone has lost the room. Because of that I think they get crushed one more time as the Raiders send their fans out with smiles and happiness. |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 15 m | Show | |
Seattle hits the road to play the vulnerable Carolina offense on Sunday. The Seahawks are coming off a 28-12 loss in a flat spot against the Rams last time out. This team's offense has scored 27 or more in four of their last six and should use plenty of Chris Carson against a very porous Carolina defense. Seattle's defense is pretty bad and yet people aren't talking about it. They've given up 24 points or more in four of their last five. The Panthers have gone over in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Kyle Allen has reverted back to the mean as of late and is struggling right now. Still, with Christian McCaffrey as a threat, Carolina has scored 20 or more in three straight games. I just think this one is an over on Sunday with both teams putting up some points in a probable Seattle win. |
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12-14-19 | Army +10.5 v. Navy | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy UNDER 41 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show | |
Before the season began, the line for this game was a pick'em according to the Westgate because Army was supposed to be really good with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Navy was supposed to struggle considering how few starters they had back on defense. Well the script has been flipped for this one with the Naval Academy playing in a bowl game and Army being massively disappointing. In this battle of triple option teams you've got Hopkins and Jabari Laws under center vs. Malcolm Perry for Navy with the edge clearly going to the squad with the AAC Offensive Player of the Year. The problems for Army come on the defensive side of the ball although they did have a decent stretch of games against Air Force, UMass and VMI. Navy's defense allowed 121 points their last three games against Notre Dame, SMU and Houston, but Army's not as explosive. The under is about as close to an instabet in this series as could possibly be. These two teams won't allow for a ton of possessions due to the triple option and the familiarity each has with it. Yes, Navy can throw it more and that's something to consider, but the nature of this game lends to no one really running away with it. There's been one game that has been decided by more than one score since 2011 and that came in 2013 when Navy won 34-7. I know what's at stake and I know that Army has won three straight, but I just think this is way too many points in another potential one possession contest. |
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12-13-19 | Northern Iowa v. James Madison UNDER 46 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
James Madison hosts Northern Iowa on Friday night at 7 o clock on ESPN2. The Dukes average nearly 500 yards of offense as they feature a full backfield with several running backs and an efficient passing attack led by Ben DiNucci. It's a little tough to take an under with this team because they've scored a ton on everyone. This squad also third in total defense and features a ferocious front line and a stout secondary. UNI is 11th in the FCS in total defense and 14th in scoring defense. The Panthers allowed only 220 yards against South Dakota State and 213 against San Diego. They've played road games in Ames Iowa and Fargo North Dakota so they won't be intimidated by Harrisonburg. The common thread for a lot of the steps up in competition for the Panthers is a lack of offense. They put up 26 on Iowa State in week 1, 14 on North Dakota State and 13 on South Dakota State last week. The worry is that they go three and out a ton and the game gets away from them. There's also going to be some precipitation in the forecast which could effect some things. I don't think JMU will be worried about it because they are balanced, but maybe it causes issues for UNI. I'll take my chances with the under in this one. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
I agree with the line move here and will be taking the home team. St. Louis is coming off a 34-7 win in Arizona where everything went right. Jared Goff was great and the defense was like a brick wall. I don't know if this means Goff has turned the corner, but at least he has a little confidence. These two played a very tight game in Seattle back on October 3rd with the Rams losing 30-29. Seattle has won five straight, but I really don't like their defense. I think their secondary is very mediocre and their front seven is exploitable as well. Of course people will back them for Russell Wilson, but he's had three straight human performances and probably should have lost two of those games. I think Seattle has been lucky as of late and I'm hoping that runs out on Sunday. Give me LA in this situation to win the game. |
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12-08-19 | Broncos v. Texans UNDER 43 | 38-24 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
It's Drew Lock's first true road game of his NFL career as they take on the Houston Texans. Denver's offense looked competent for the first time in a few weeks against the Chargers in a 23-20 win. The Broncos have struggled to run it and are relying on a rookie on the road. The good thing for Denver is that this defense has been awesome. Over the last nine weeks, they've allowed more then 25 points just three times. Their secondary is one of the best and their run defense for the most part has been strong. For Houston, this is an epic sandwich spot coming of a home division win followed by a Sunday night spotlight win over New England. They've gone under in four of their last five with the defense playing better and the offense showing some inconsistency. With a big road game against Tennessee on deck, I wonder if focus is an issue in this one for the home team. Last year these two played a 19-17 game in Denver with the Texans winning despite less than 300 yards of offense. Denver has gone under in 15 of their last 24 as an underdog and 14 of their last 22 on the road. Houston has gone under in 14 of their last 23 at home including four of six this season. Give me the under here. |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons -3 | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints. I just wonder if the Panthers play distracted and lay a massive egg. |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 47 | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Carolina moves on without their head coach Ron Rivera. From what it sounds like, the locker room wasn't too thrilled with that decision. Is it Rivera's fault that the defense has given up 92 points the last three weeks? I think Kyle Allen has been exposed a bit as of late and that's stopped the offense even though they scored 52 points the last two weeks. These two teams played in Carolina with Atlanta winning 29-3 back on November 17th. The Falcons offense gets a boost with the return of Julio Jones and Austin Hooper as well as a key offensive lineman up front. The defense was solid last week against the Saints, but I'm not buying them still. Carolina has gone over in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. |
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12-07-19 | Virginia v. Clemson OVER 54.5 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
The ACC Championship figures to be a blowout on Saturday night as Clemson takes the final step towards another playoff berth. The Tigers are averaging over 45 points per game as a unit while putting up almost 550 yards. Their coach Dabo Swinney has played the disrespect card and will want to use this platform to remind everyone how good they are. The best thing for this matchup is how banged up UVA is in the secondary. They let Hendon Hooker throw all over them last week and his attack is nowhere near as good as Trevor Lawrence. Travis Etienne should be able to find some holes against this front seven. On the other side, Clemson's defense is putting up epic numbers, but I think they are facing their best offense of the season in the Wahoos. UVA is averaging over 30 points per game and features Bryce Perkins who is the 2nd best QB in the ACC. UVA has scored 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six. I think Perkins will be able to keep Clemson honest enough. The Hoos have gone over in eight of their 12 games this year. I just see a lot of points in this on one Saturday. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 63 h 16 m | Show | |
The winner of this SEC game will get their spot in the FBS playoffs. The Tigers are 12-0 and are putting up almost 50 points per game. Joe Burrow and this offense have scored 45 or more in four straight games, but outside of Alabama, I'm not too impressed with the defenses they've faced. Georgia allowed 151 rushing yards against three ranked foes, and it held Notre Dame and Florida under 50. LSU's defense has struggled at times, but I'm really not that scared of Georgia's offense. The Bulldogs put up 52 on a bad Georgia Tech team, but scored 67 points the previous three weeks and have been inconsistent on that side of the ball. Lawrence Cager got hurt and George Pickens is out for the first half after getting ejected last week. D'Andre Swift is the team's star running back, but he's not 100%. UGA's run defense has been awesome the past few weeks and the secondary has it's moments. Last year LSU won this game 36-16 at home with a 16-0 halftime score. |
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12-07-19 | Kennesaw State v. Weber State UNDER 56.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 62 h 3 m | Show | |
Kennesaw State is coming off a 28-21 road win at Wofford in round one of the FCS playos. In that game, quarterback Tommy Bryant suffered a leg injury and backup Jonathan Murphy came in to rush for 206 yards and three touchdowns. This team wants to run it as they average nearly 350 yards on the ground per game. Kennesaw has held seven opponents to 20 points or less and nearly knocked off their FBS opponent Kent State 26-23 in overtime. Another factor to consider here is that this will be their fourth road game over their last five. Weber State has had the week off to prepare for this one and is ninth in the FCS with 107.3 rushing yards allowed per game. They've held seven opponents to 20 points or less and are very familiar with the triple option as they've seen Cal Poly four straight years. Over the last four seasons, the Wildcats have held Cal Poly to an average of 12 points less and 128 rushing yards less than their usual scoring and rushing averages. I just think we see a lot of rushing and some long possessions. Give me the under here. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Thursday Night Football features Dallas traveling to Chicago. The Bears had a five game under streak snapped last time out when they squeaked over the low total in Detroit against the Lions. Chicago has struggled to score all season long as Mitch Trubisky has had his issues. He may have come out of those struggles the last two weeks, but that was against some weak secondaries. We do know Chicago's defense has been as fierce as they have in the past holding four straight teams to 20 points or less. On the Dallas side, they've gone under in two straight as the offense scored just 24 points against playoff level New England and Buffalo. The run game has lost it's effectiveness as the team asks Dak Prescott to throw it more. Dallas' defense has been very hot and cold as teams start running on them. The Cowboys have held six straight teams to 250 yards passing or less. The Bears have gone under in 16 of their last 23 home contests including five of six this year. I lean heavily to the under as I think we could see both teams struggle to score here. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars +3 | 28-11 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars OVER 47 | 28-11 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm really having a hard time buying Jameis Winston in this one. Tampa has won two of their last three, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. The Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game and almost 300 yards through the air per contest. Tampa Bay is 3-8 against the spread this season and I'm just not getting this line move. Jacksonville is a very hard team to back right now as they've lost three straight. The last two weeks Nick Foles has thrown it a bunch of times and they've lost track of Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville's defense has been getting crushed by the run and has been very good against the pass. Since September 29th, they've allowed just two QBs to throw over 250 yards. The Bucs have covered just eight of their last 22 road games. I think this one is a bit extreme so give me the value with the home team. |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
The Browns and Steelers play just a few weeks after their Thursday night meeting in Cleveland in which Myles Garrett hit Mason Rudolph in the helmet. Well, Garrett's gone and Rudolph is as well with Duck Hodges back under center. Cleveland beat Miami 41-24 at home last week completing the three game home sweep. Cleveland's defense has been playing pretty good here, but the pass rush needs Garrett. The Steelers won 16-10 last week in Cincinnati in the most extreme sandwich spot you could probably ever have. Consistently this season Pittsburgh has been a home underdog and they've covered several times. The Steelers defense is forcing a ton of turnovers and will be highly motivated for this one. Cleveland has been a road favorite three times the last three seasons and they've only won that game outright once. I just think this line is getting a little extreme, but I'll take the home dog once again. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
The Colts have lost three of their last four as they host the Titans on Sunday. Indy will be without Marlon Mack once again as well as T.Y. Hilton which puts a little more pressure on the ground game they want to try and rev up. This team has scored less then 20 points four times in their last seven games as they ask Jacoby Brissett to do less on offense. The Colts defense consistently continues to come up big. It's hard to run on this team which could make things difficult on Derrick Henry. Since allowing 188 yards on the ground to the Raiders, the Colts have held every team to under 115 rushing yards. Tennessee's offense is hot, but they were home and facing some terrible defenses. Ryan Tannehill has done some great stuff for this side of the ball, but I think they struggle here. The Titans defense is very good against the run and I think both sides have mediocre skill position guys. Way back on September 15th these two teams played in Tennessee with the Colts winning 19-17, but Mariota was under center and Mack and Hilton played. I think this one is a field position game and an under on Sunday. |
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11-29-19 | Appalachian State v. Troy +12.5 | 48-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Motivation is a powerful factor in this game as Troy hosts Appalachian State. The Trojans are coming off a 53-3 loss at Lafayette in which they got blasted in a bunch of areas. This is an offense that had scored 30 points or more in each of their previous five games before that ugly loss. Kaleb Barker is a very good quarterback and that offense should be able to move the ball enough to keep things interesting. App State is making their way to the Sun Belt title game again so this contest doesn't mean as much right now. They lost their stud wide receiver Sutton last week, so you know they are going to want to run it a lot and get out of dodge with a victory. App State's defense can be beaten through the air with South Carolina and North Carolina putting up over 300 yards. I just think this one is tighter then people expect as Troy is playing for bowl eligibility. Give me the home team. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
The line has gone up two points in the Bills/Cowboys game and I think it gives us some value on the under. Buffalo wants to run the ball ideally and that's going to grind some clock, because Josh Allen doesn't have a ton of weapons and he's a little jittery still in the pocket. This team has gone under in three of their last four because the defense has been solid. They've held each of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. Now, outside of Cleveland, they held down Washington, Miami and Denver who don't exactly have a ton of weapons. Buffalo has tightened up their run defense and of course have a stout secondary with Tre'davious White who will shadow Amari Cooper. The Cowboys offense is very capable of scoring a ton of points, but they are coming off a disappointing effort in New England. The run game just hasn't been the same the last three weeks so I can see them grinding it out with Zeke. Dallas' defense is weaker without Leighton Vander Esch, but once again, I'm not a huge believer in Buffalo's O. The Bills have gone under in 16 of their last 22 road games including 14 of their last 18 as a road underdog. They've gone under in eight of 11 overall this year. Give me the under here. |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 38.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Thanksgiving in Detroit as the Lions host the Bears. The two teams played just a few weeks ago when we had the under in a 20-13 Chicago home win. Since then the Bears have played two more unders as they lost 17-7 to the Rams and beat the Giants 19-14. Mitch Trubisky still hasn't figured out this offense and he most likely won't have Taylor Gabriel. The offense has scored over 20 points just twice the last two months. Defensively Chicago has been it's usual fantastic self. Since giving up 36 at home to the Saints, Chicago has allowed 83 points over the last five weeks. I just don't know how much the Lions will get going offensively against Khalil Mack especially if Jeff Driskel is not 100%. David Blough is his backup and that means that he'll be under siege against that pass rush. The Lions defense scares me because they've been getting crushed lately, but once again, can Mitch Trubisky take advantage. Last year this game in Detroit was a 23-16 game which of course goes over this number, but still, it was low scoring and ugly. Give me the under in this one. |
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
The Patriots should have lost last week to the Eagles. New England managed around 300 yards of offense, but Tom Brady was constantly harassed and didn't look comfortable. Thankfully for the Pats, their defense continues to be stout and it's what is keeping them with only one loss. Dallas is playing their third road game this month and they are coming off a 35-27 road win at Detroit. The Cowboys have not been able to get their run game on track the last two weeks. Thankfully for them, Dak Prescott has been on target. With these two defenses figuring to be the strongest units, I lean to the under. New England has gone under in 29 of their last 48 overall while Dallas has one under in 12 of their last 22 road games. Give me the under here. |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | 20-42 | Win | 102 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
The Titans are the better team in this matchup although it's a bit of a worry that they are coming off a bye week. Tennessee has won three of their last four and are playing a whole lot better with Ryan Tannehill under center. The loss in that stretch came in Carolina, but this team has also feasted at home as of late. They want to grind it out with Derrick Henry who should be able to run wild on the Jags defense. Tannehill's weapons aren't great, but he's made due with it. The Titans defense has been fantastic for the most part. Yes, Kansas City sliced them up, but they do that to everyone. Before that, Tennessee's D was fantastic. Jacksonville has lost two straight and four of their last six. Last week they threw it too much with a rusty Nick Foles and they figure to run it more with Fournette. As I mentioned above though, you can run on these guys. Indy put up 264 while Houston ran for 216. These two met in Jacksonville on a Thursday night in September with the Jags winning 20-7 at home. That was the Gardner Minshew show, but the offense didn't work that well. Tennessee is 15-6 straight up at home the last three years covering 11 of those contests. In a low scoring affair, I'll go with the better running team. |
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11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | 3-34 | Win | 101 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
The Raiders are 6-4 and one of the best stories in the NFL right now. They head to New York to face the Jets on Sunday and it seems like a poor spot for the team. Oakland has a road game against the Chiefs up next week in a game that's a whole lot more important then this one. They've run off three straight wins over the Lions, Chargers and Bengals at home and are playing good football right now. Still, I'm not a huge believer in the Raiders defense. You can run on them and the last two opponents have. The secondary has put up some good stats, but the Chargers and Bengals passing attack are rather anemic. On the other side you have the Jets who have won two straight and are finally playing like the team we thought they'd be. The offense put up 34 on the Giants and the Redskins the last two weeks. Sam Darnold is throwing it well with Le'Veon Bell who has been a key piece. The defense has been very good against the run all year and the secondary has actually been alright as of late. I know that teams are getting better with travel when heading east but I think that's a factor as well. Give me the home dog in this one. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons OVER 52 | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay has gone over in eight straight games and I think they do so again on Sunday. The Bucs offense is averaging 27.7 points per game, but they are also giving up over 30 and a lot of that is because they can't stop anyone through the air. Not only that, Jameis Winston is the gift that gives in both directions with touchdown passes and interceptions for touchdowns. He's always good for an interception or two that gives opponents short fields or touchdowns. Atlanta has won two straight and it's because the offense has played better and the defense has been lights out. I'm not a believer that their D is suddenly as good as allowing 12 points in their last two contests. They gave up 27 to Seattle, 37 to the Rams and 24 to Tennessee at home before that. I think Matt Ryan will be able to connect with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley early and often. Last year these two teams played a 34-29 contest in Atlanta and a 34-32 one in Tampa Bay. Give me the over in yet another Tampa contest. |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 38 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is such an odd spot for Pittsburgh as it lands in between a pair of games against the Browns. The Steelers offense was absolutely brutal in Cleveland 10 days ago as they put up seven points and had under 250 yards of offense. They will not have James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster or Maurkice Pouncey in the front line so I don't know how Pittsburgh will score. Mason Rudolph has been exposed as a guy who can't throw deep and doesn't have a ton of weapons. This team has gone under in two straight and four of their last five as the defense has been fantastic. It's hard to run on them and four straight teams have thrown for less then 200 yards. Cincinnati has scored less then 20 points in five straight games as Ryan Finley has shown he's not the answer. Because of that, teams are stacking the box to stop Joe Mixon. The Bengals defense is not the greatest, but they held the Raiders to 17 last week. The Steelers have gone under in 16 of their last 19 on the road. |