12-03-18 |
Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
13-28 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Skins have been ravaged with injuries on the offensive side of the football. While the biggest lost player is quarterback Alex Smith, the attrition this team has suffered on their offensive line would devastate most teams. Washington has put four of their players that began the season on their two-deep depth chart on Injured Reserve with three of these players being starters — and their six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is questionable for tonight with rib and ankle injuries. The Skins are averaging 20.0 PPG for the season while scoring 19.1 PPG over their last three games and it is difficult seeing them putting up many more points than that. Adrian Peterson’s production has significantly declined as these injuries on the offensive line have mounted. Over the last month, the running back is averaging only 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not reached 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28th. Washington rushed for just 80 yards against the Cowboys — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to rush for at least 90 yards. Furthermore, the Skins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Quarterback Colt McCoy was a victim of this injured offensive line as well. He was sacked three times by Dallas while getting hitting eight times in that game. Washington has also been hit with injuries on defense but this unit is still playing well. For the season, the Skins rank 8th the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG led by a stout run defense that also ranks 8th in the league by allowing 100.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing just 19.4 PPG — and they hold their home hosts to only 19.2 PPG. The Skins did allow 258 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Washington has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense gave up 276 passing yards along with 402 total yards of offense to the Giants — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they allowed 7.31 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP. Philly is riddled with injuries in their secondary — but it helps that they are only facing McCoy rather than Smith at quarterback tonight. The Eagles are still playing strong run defense that ranks 10th in the league by allowing 103.6 rushing YPG. But this Philly offense is scoring only 17.3 PPG along with just 319.3 total YPG over their last three games. Philadelphia stays at home where they are holding only scoring 20.2 PPG — but they are also holding their visitors to that number. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philly has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after playing an NFC East rival.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit very hard by the injury bug. Since the onus is on the offensive to execute plays to move the football, usually it is the defenses that look relatively better when injuries are spread out on both sides of the football. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two divisional rivals playing for the first time this season. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Chargers v. Steelers UNDER 53 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers are playing outstanding defense right now — and that unit is even better now that Joey Bosa has returned after missing most of the season due to injury. Los Angeles has allowed less than 20 points in six of their last seven games. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 13.0 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong defensive play should continue tonight as the Under is 35-16-1 in the LA’s last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers did generate 414 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals — but they have then seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Unfortunately for this offense, they will be without their top running back, Melvin Gordon tonight who is out with a knee injury. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they are only averaging 368.0 total YPG which is 34 YPG below their season average. But the LA defense keeps them competitive away from home as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has only scored 37 combined points over their last two games. They are getting outstanding play from their defense that not only leads the NFL in sacks but is allowing only 20.3 PPG along with just 264.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Steelers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of there last three games. Pittsburgh did generate 527 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.12 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to get their rushing attack going again after only rushing for 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. The Steelers have averaged 403.6 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The high Total set in the low-50s suggests that this shapes up to be a scoring fest. However, both these teams are playing great defense — scoring is going to be harder to come by for both teams. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-18 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won five straight games with their 27-24 win over Miami last week as a 9-point favorite. Jacksonville (3-8) has lost seven straight games with their 24-21 win at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have hit rock bottom — so head coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. But new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich is still limited by the offensive talent available to him. Quarterback Cody Kessler has only played in thirteen NFL games in his career. And the team will be without running back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for one game for his roughhouse behavior in last week’s game with the Bills. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.9 PPG. But the maligned Jaguars’ defense has played much better at home where they are holding their opponents to just 16.2 PPG along with only 261.6 total YPG. Last week’s game with Buffalo went Over the 36.5 point Total — but Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills did rush for 167 yards last week — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Colts generated 455 yards of offense in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Colts defense has stepped up their level of play as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG along with only 330.7 total YPG. Andrew Luck has led an offense that has scored at least 27 points in six straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 12 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 29-26 win back on November 11th. While that game flew Over the 48 point Total, these two teams have still played 11 of their last 15 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-18 |
UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 |
Top |
19-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (7-5) reached the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four games in a row with their 21-10 win over Troy last week as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Appalachian State held the Trojans to just 223 yards of offense while winning the rushing battle by a decisive 139 net yards. The Mountaineers have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. Appalachian State’s spread option offensive attack defines the program — but that aspect of their game should not distract from the outstanding defense that head coach Scott Satterfield has overseen in his sixth year with the program. Five starters returned to a defense that was tied for 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 20.2 PPG — and they also ranked 29th in total defense by allowing only 342.5 total YPG. This year’s unit has been even better as they rank 5th in the nation by allowing just 15.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the FBS by giving up only 278.2 total YPG. The Mountaineers are even stingier playing at home where they give up only 11.6 PPG along with just 271.4 total YPG — and over their last three games, this group is allowing a mere 11.3 PPG along with 259.7 total YPG. Appalachian State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. UL-Lafayette raced out to a 24-21 halftime lead against the Warhawks last week before hanging out to win by a 31-28 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last contest. UL-Lafayette has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Ragin Cajuns have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games in Sun Belt Conference play — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. This championship game is a rematch of the October 20th meeting between these two teams that the Mountaineers won by a 27-17 score in their Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns did a pretty good job of slowing down the Appalachian State offense as they generated only 364 total yards which were over 118 yards below their season offensive average when playing at home. UL-Lafayette has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The Ragin Cajuns should play even better on defense in this rematch with the benefit of their experience facing this offensive scheme in October. UL-Lafayette ranks 104th in the nation by allowing 443.3 total YPG but they have allowed over -45 YPG less than that over their last three games. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Conference Championships Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Utah v. Washington UNDER 45 |
Top |
3-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Washington held the powerful Cougars offense to only 237 total yards in an outstanding defensive effort — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies were one of my dark horse candidates to win the National Championship this season in large part because they returned nine starters from a stout group that was 5th in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG while ranking 8th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 298.8 total YPG. This year’s defense ranks 8th in the FBS by allowing 16.5 PPG while also ranking 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 311.3 total YPG — so this group has only a slight decline in their outstanding numbers. What has held this Washington team back has been a disappointing offense that is scoring only 28.0 PPG (tied for 75th in the nation) after averaging 36.2 PPG last season with quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin as juniors. The offensive line has taken a step back this season with the unit suffering a big loss with the season-ending injury to senior left tackle Trey Adams who was projected as a potential top-ten pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies did generate 487 yards against the Cougars last week — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The formula for success for head coach Chris Petersen’s team is winning the war in the trenches. They have out-rushed their last three opponents by at least 100 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least 100 yards. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total as the favorite. Utah has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road after a victory on their home field. Furthermore, the Utes have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah only gained 296 yards of offense against the Cougars but benefited from a 27-yard interception that they returned for a touchdown. The Utes have an elite defense that allows only 19.3 PPG (17th in the nation) — and they rank 15th in the FBS by only allowing 315.8 total YPG. Utah has the nation’s 5th best rushing defense that holds their opponents to only 100.3 rushing YPG — led by defensive line coach Gary Andersen who was a steal of a hire by head coach Kyle Whittingham after his stint at Oregon State soured last season. This is a rematch of the Huskies’ 21-7 victory over the Utes back on September 15th. Utah had junior Tyler Huntley under center for that game along with junior Zack Moss in their backfield — but both leaders on offense have since suffered season-ending injuries. For this rematch, the Utes will be using redshirt freshman Jason Shelley under center. While he has played well, he is likely a step back from Huntley who led an offense that only generated 261 yards with the one score. The defense did limit the Huskies to just 327 yards in that initial game — and I expect another gritty defensive performance. Utah has played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah knows they cannot get into a high-scoring affair with the Huskies given the injuries they have suffered on offense. This Washington team only scores 22.2 PPG in their six games away from home — so this game shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-18 |
Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 6 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Colorado Avalanche (10). THE SITUATION: St. Louis (8-12-3) has lost two straight games — as well as five of their last six contests — with their 4-3 loss in Detroit on Wednesday. Colorado (15-6-3) has won six straight games with their 6-3 win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blues have played three straight Overs where at least seven combined goals were scored. But St. Louis has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least seven combined goals were scored. The Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when facing a team who scored at least five goals in their last game. The Blues stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, St. Louis has played 12 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after losing at least two straight games. The team is rumored to be interested in trading for goaltender Jimmy Howard of the Red Wings with their goalie Jake Allen struggling. Allen has been a disaster at home where he has been saddled with a 3.86 Goals-Against-Average along with an .879 save percentage — but those numbers do drop to respectable a 2.74 GAA with a .911 save percentage at home. Allen has also recovered from a bad opening month to post a 2.65 GAA with a .915 save percentage for November. Additionally, St. Louis has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow Western Conference opponents. Colorado has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against Central Division opponents. They have scored at least three goals in six straight games — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least three goals in two straight games. The Avalanche have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game. This is Colorado’s third game since Monday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. They are getting goaltending from Semyon Varlamov who has a 2.15 GAA with a .928 save percentage when playing at home. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Avalanche’s last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have seen the Under go 15-7-1 in their last 23 meetings. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the St. Louis Blues (9) and the Colorado Avalanche (10). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-18 |
Saints v. Cowboys UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Saints offense that leads the NFL by scoring 37.2 PPG, the continued improved play of their defense too often gets the short shrift. New Orleans has allowed only 12.7 PPG over their last three games while limiting their last three opponents to just 282.0 total YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 23 points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being their 45-35 shootout with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense leads the NFL by allowing only 73.2 YPG — and opposing rushers average just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Nine of their last ten opponents have failed to rush for more than 100 yards — and their last three opponents have managed only 65 rushing YPG. The Saints pass rush has stepped as of late as well as they have combined for 13 sacks along with 25 hits on the quarterback over the last three weeks. This unit will be infused the return of their breakout rookie defensive lineman Marcus Davenport who has missed the last few weeks with a toe injury. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Saints have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in their last five contests. As the weather begins to turn, the Saints are starting to emphasize their rushing attack a bit more with Mark Ingram back in the mix after serving his four-game suspension. Drew Brees only attempted 22 passes last week against the Falcons. New Orleans only generated 312 yards of offense last week against the Atlanta defense. The Saints tend to run the ball more when they go on the road as well — they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The formula for defeating the Saints will certainly be to run the ball to burn time off the clock and keep Brees off the field — Dallas is 5-1 this season when Ezekiel Elliott rushes for at least 100 yards. Despite last week’s offensive effort against the Skins, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Dallas has an outstanding defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 19.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up a mere 331.1 total YPG. The Cowboys run defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 93.6 YPG — and they are allowing only 3.46 YPC. They held Washington to just 80 rushing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Dallas has not allowed more than 28 points to an opponent all season. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these are going to attempt to run the football — yet both might be stymied in these efforts when facing their opposing strong run defenses. While that will likely lead to a course of events that will see more passing, the lack of an effective ground game will slow down these offenses. With the Total in the low-50s given the prowess of the Saints offense, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-18 |
Golden Knights v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
8-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (65) and the Chicago Blackhawks (66). THE SITUATION: Vegas (12-12-0) has won three straight games with their 6-0 win over San Jose on Saturday. Chicago (9-10-4) looks to build off their 5-4 win in overtime at Florida on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is heating up after a slow start in the first month of the season. Fleury pulled off the rare feat of registering two straight shutout victories on successive nights as his win over the Sharks was preceded by a 2-0 shutout win against Calgary. Fleury has a sparkling 2.19 Goals-Against-Average with a .924 save percentage in eleven starts this month. The Golden Knights have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win. Now they go on the road where they are scoring only 2.5 Goals-Per-Game as compared to their meager 2.8 Goals-Per-Game scoring average for the season. Additionally, the Golden Knights have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days. Furthermore, Vegas has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Chicago has played 6 straight home games Under the Total when playing their fourth game in seven days — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against Western Conference foes. They have also played a decisive 47 of their 71 home games Under the Total after a win in overtime. The Blackhawks return home where goalie Corey Crawford has been outstanding this season with a 1.57 GAA along with a .947 save percentage in seven starts this year. The Under is 27-11-2 in Chicago’s last 40 games at home — and they have played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total with the number set at 5.5.
FINAL TAKE: In this game between two Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders playing very well right now, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NHL Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Vegas Golden Knights (65) and the Chicago Blackhawks (66). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-18 |
Titans v. Texans UNDER 43 |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees in the middle of their game with the Colts as he went to the hospital with a medical scare — that had to play a role in them allowing 397 yards of offense. Pees has been cleared to run the defense tonight for this game. Expect a better effort from this Tennessee defense that allows only 19.7 PPG along with 305.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. But the Titans only score 16.3 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 297.2 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston’s previous game was also on the road in what resulted in a 19-17 win at Denver against the Broncos. The Texans have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. Houston returns home where they are allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 317.5 total YPG. Since Week Five, the Texans are allowing only 17.5 PPG with an improved defense. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 5 appearances for Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on September 16th with the Titans pulling off a 20-17 upset as the home underdog. Expect another lower-score game in this rematch. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Steelers v. Broncos UNDER 48 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2-1) has won six straight games with their 20-16 win over Jacksonville last week as a 4-point favorite. Denver (4-6) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-22 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver allowed 479 yards in that contest — but the Under is then 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos return home where they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against a team with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 6 games as an underdog, the Broncos have played 5 of these games Under the Total. They will certainly try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep the Steelers off the field. That is what the Jaguars did last week as Pittsburgh was only on offense for 22:20 minutes of that game. As a result, the Steelers generated only 323 yards of offense. Pittsburgh did hold Jacksonville to only 243 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. The Steelers defense has raised their level of play — over their last three games, they are allowing only 17.7 PPG along with just 251.0 total YPG. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, not only have the Steelers played 30 of their last 43 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher but they have also played 8 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers offense is not nearly as potent when playing on the road they are scoring 5.5 PPG below their season average. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-18 |
Patriots v. Jets UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). THE SITUATION: New England (7-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago with their 34-10 loss at Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (3-7) has lost four straight games with their 41-10 loss to Buffalo two Sundays ago where they were a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. It is time for Bill Belichick and his coaching staff to get back to basics: run the football to burn time off the clock and protect their defense. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. This is particularly the case when the Patriots go on the road where their offense is not nearly as explosive as it is in Foxboro. New England is scoring only 20.6 PPG on the road while averaging 312.6 total YPG — and those numbers are far below their 28.0 PPG scoring average along with the 377.2 total YPG they are averaging this season. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, New England has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Patriots defense has been playing pretty well. Even after their bad effort against the Titans the last time out, they have held their last three opponents to score only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 362.0 total YPG. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. New York has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss at home. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been declared out for this game with his foot injury — so it will be the veteran Josh McCown under center for this game. What McCown bring in his savvy and knowledge to this position is mitigated by his limited physical skills. He completed 17 of 34 passes against the Bills but that only resulted in 135 yards of offense — and he threw two interceptions. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. New York is scoring an anemic 8.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 229.3 total YPG. The Jets need to run the football to keep Tom Brady off the field. The Jets defense has been playing pretty well — they have held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Bills behind Matt Barkley (!) generated 451 yards against them in their last game — but they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season — they last played on December 31st where the Patriots won by a 26-6 score. These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — look for this afternoon showdown to make it five in a row. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-18 |
UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 52 |
Top |
3-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-20 loss at Texas A&M last Saturday as a 17-point underdog. Middle Tennessee (7-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their step up in class against a team from the SEC last week in their 34-23 loss at Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Blue Raiders defense for their loss to the Wildcats as they held Kentucky to just 324 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin played a critical role in deciding that game. The Under is 7-1-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Blue Raiders surrendered 203 rushing yards to Kentucky in that game — but the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill did pass for 293 yards in that game — but the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. Now Middle Tennessee returns home where they are allowing only 21.0 PPG which is 6.2 PPG lower than their season average. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last 10 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Middle Tennessee has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. UAB has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. This team did surrender 41 points to the Aggies last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. UAB holds their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 294.2 total YPG when playing on the road. But the Blazers see their 31.9 PPG scoring margin for the season drop to just 26.6 PPG when playing away home. UAB has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Conference USA opponents.
FINAL TAKE: UAB has clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game next week — and they could face this Blue Raiders team again next week if they lose this game while FIU loses at Marshall (as now a home dog). The Blazers may hold back a trick or two on offense because of this possibility. UAB won last year’s game by a 25-23 score with that total set in the 55.5 range. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Falcons v. Saints OVER 59 |
Top |
17-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
14 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints cranked out a whopping 546 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl champions — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense did hold the Eagles to just 196 total yards of offense — but they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has his offense push the pace when playing on the fast turf at home in the Superdome. Drew Brees has a perfect 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his five home games this year while averaging 350.8 passing YPG. The Saints are averaging 39.4 PPG when playing at home while allowing their visitors to manage 25.4 PPG to result in an average combined score well into the 60s. The Over is 19-8-1 in New Orleans’ last 28 home games. Furthermore, the Saints have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when a double-digit favorite. New Orleans is the hottest team in the league who have covered the point spread in eight straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. The Saints have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC South rivals. Atlanta would surely like to run the ball to keep the Saints’ offense off the field but that will be difficult to accomplish with Devonta Freeman on Injured Reserve with his foot injury. The Falcons will not have the luxury of hoping to establish the run if they fall behind early to this New Orleans team that averages 22.4 first-half points when playing at home. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Additionally, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The injury-plagued Atlanta defense will have a difficult time slowing down the Saints offense after allowing their last two opponents to churn out 353 rushing yards while averaging 6.66 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons lack a credible pass rush — they rank in the bottom-five in the NFL by sacking the QB in just 4.8% of opponent pass attempts and they are just hitting the quarterback in 11.1% of their dropbacks. Matt Ryan still has most of his offensive weapons at his disposal in the passing game — so the Falcons should score their share of points as they try to keep pace with the New Orleans offense. Atlanta only generated 329 yards against Dallas last week but that was in large part because they had ten fewer offensive plays than what they typically enjoy. The Falcons still averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Cowboys — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Atlanta has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total as a road underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 23rd that the Saints won by a 43-37 score. That was the game where the Falcons began to produce better success in the Red Zone. Atlanta has scored at least 31 points five times this season — and head coach Dan Quinn will have to think that generating at least that many points will be necessary to pull the upset. That is a recipe for another high scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-18 |
Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 |
Top |
73-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 41.2% of their shots against the Bulldogs. 3-point shooting is an issue for this team as I flagged yesterday in the Report taking Gonzaga. Arizona makes only 30.4% of their 3-point shots which ranks 266th in the nation — and that is exactly what they shot last night by making only 7 of their 23 shots (30.4%) from behind the arc. While this subpar 3-point shooting has been consistent, expect the Wildcats to play better on the defensive end of the court after Gonzaga made 53.1% of their shots. That was Arizona’s worst defensive effort of this young season — but they are still holding their opponents to just a 39.9% field goal percentage for the season. The Wildcats have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Wildcats’ last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage below 60% — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Under is 3-1-1. Auburn held Duke to a 44.4% field goal percentage which was the worst defensive performance in their last three games. The Tigers rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Bruce Pearl will want his team to commit fewer personal fouls after being whistled for 24 fouls against the Blue Devils. Auburn was called for 23 personal fouls the previous day in their opening round game against Xavier — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being whistled for at least 22 fouls in two straight games. The Tigers have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the game finished Under the Total 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are playing their third game in three days — so fatigue might be a factor. Both Pearl and Sean Miller want their teams to have their defense serve as the foundation of their team play — so expect intensity on that end of the court to be a priority for both teams in this consolation game. 25* CBB Maui Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-18 |
Knicks v. Celtics OVER 216 |
Top |
117-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). THE SITUATION: New York (4-14) has lost six straight games after their 118-114 loss to Portland last night as a 7.5-point underdog. Boston (9-8) has lost two straight games after their 117-112 loss in Charlotte on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. New York has also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing without a day of rest. Now the Knicks go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 117.8 PPG while shooting 48.9% from the field. Over their last five games, New York is seeing their opponents make 50.1% of their shots. The Knicks have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Boston has suffered two straight upset loss as their upset loss against the Hornets was preceded by a 98-86 loss at home to Utah as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Furthermore, Boston has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after enduring two straight upset losses. Now the Celtics return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Boston is a heavy favorite tonight being asked to lay 14 or so points. The Celtics should play well tonight — expect a high scoring game. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (507) and the Boston Celtics (508). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-18 |
Chiefs v. Rams OVER 62 |
Top |
51-54 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the oddsmakers installing the total in the 63 range, this is the largest over/under in NFL history. Of course, numbers like this are not uncommon when betting College Football. With the number this high, it seems like the books are begging bettors to take the Under. I am not taking the bait. I see three reasons why this game is going over the number. First, the pace of this game will be fast. Both coaches like to play up-tempo on offense. Neither head coach is very concerned with controlling the time off possession. When both teams are playing fast, that will increase the number of possessions for both teams. Second, both head coaches will play this game aggressively since they both will likely think that they will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. This expectation helps make the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. Los Angeles has scored at least 33 points in eight of their games while Kansas City has scored at least 30 points in eight of their contests. But Los Angeles has given up 31 points four times including in both of their last two games. Kansas City has allowed at least 27 points in four of their games. Third, since both teams struggle to stop the run, both offenses will have advantageous down-and-distance opportunities on second and third down which will maximize their play-calling flexibility. The Chiefs allow their opponents to average 5.11 Yards-Per-Carry while the Rams allow opposing rushers to average 4.92 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-and-five situations are great for the offense. Los Angeles has played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, the Chiefs have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I think both of these teams have already played games that are likely blue prints for how this game will be played out. Kansas City fell behind early but kept pushing the pace before New England outlasted them by a 43-40 score. The Rams were not able to catch up in New Orleans after falling behind in what ended up being a 45-35 final score. With their rule changes in the offseason, this the product that the NFL wants — so don’t be surprised if the referees make some calls that benefit both offenses. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Vikings v. Bears UNDER 46 |
Top |
20-25 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has scored 75 points over their last two games — both that explosion in points was built on a foundation of seven forced turnovers. While the Bears have averaged 33.0 PPG over their last three games, they have only averaged 329.0 total YPG over that span. Mitchell Trubisky did complete 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards against a Lions defense missing their best cover cornerback in Darius Slay — but Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Chicago defense has been outstanding as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with a mere 255.7 total YPG. The Bears surrendered only 76 rushing yards last week to the Lions after giving up just 97 rushing yards the previous week against the Bills. Not only have Chicago then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not giving up at least 100 rushing yards in two straight games. Even better for this unit is that their star linebacker Khalil Mack is healthy again and will play tonight. The Bears host this game at Soldier Field where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Purple People Eater Defense is cranking on all cylinders again with their stud defensive end Everson Griffen back in the mix. Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing only 18.7 PPG along with just 247.3 total YPG. They should keep it going as they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Minnesota has played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — including playing four straight Unders when playing in Chicago. Expect another lower scoring game between two teams whose true strengths lie on the defensive side of the football. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-18 |
Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 44 |
Top |
21-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their humiliating 51-14 loss to New Orleans last Sunday as 6-point underdogs. Baltimore (4-5) has lost three straight games with their 23-16 upset loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have been a disaster on defense this season. They are allowing 456.5 total YPG which is not only last in the NFL but on pace to be worst mark ever in NFL history. After surrendering 130 points over their last three games, head coach Marvin Lewis fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin who was a hot head coaching candidate for next season just a couple of months ago. Lewis will take over the defense which should result in the players being more accountable for their actions on and off the field. Injuries have hurt this unit — but futility of this magnitude indicates that the effort has not been there. Lewis will get some help on that side of the field with the firing of Hue Jackson who will serve as an assistant coach taking Austin’s place. While I know Jackson is a self-promoting clown most of the time, he is also someone with a long history of working with Lewis including serving on the defensive coaching staff with the Bengals after he was sacked from the Raiders. Jackson also brings plenty of perspective on the Ravens with them being a divisional rival. I expect immediate improvement on defense. They allowed 509 yards of offense to the Saints last week — but they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 21-10-1 in Cincinnati’s last 32 games after giving up at least 30 points. The offense is limited still with wide receiver A.J. Green out so expect plenty of Joe Mixon and the Bengals rushing attack to keep the clock moving and protect this defense a bit by keeping them off the darn field. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and this includes four straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the month of November. Baltimore will be starting rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback with Joe Flacco still nursing a hip injury. I have seen nothing to indicate that Jackson is ready for this assignment yet — unless operating ineffective specialized packages now serves as an endorsement. The Ravens will likely struggle with their passing game with Jackson under center still not polished with that part of his game at the professional level. But the Baltimore defense remains stout as they allow only 16.0 PPG along with a mere 275.0 total YPG when playing at home. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a bye week. Furthermore. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of their game played back in the idyllic days of mid-September where the Bengals won by a 34-23 score with that Total set at 43. Things have changed. Expect a lower scoring game this time around. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-18 |
Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 50 |
Top |
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-3) has won five straight games with their 28-14 win over Baylor last week as a 17-point favorite. Texas (7-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-34 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Quarterback Shane Ehlinger did pass for 312 yards in a winning effort last week — but Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Longhorns has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. And while Texas allowed 595 yards of offense to the Longhorns last week, they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Texas returns home to Austin to where they are allowing only 22.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Texas has also played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Cyclones won that game despite gaining only 357 yards of offense in that contest. They did surrender 505 yards to the Bears — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Iowa State allows only 20.4 PPG which is 22nd best in the nation — and that number drops to just an 18.7 PPG make when they are playing on the road. But the Cyclones also only score 23.0 PPG on the road while generating a mere 311.2 total YPG. Iowa State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 17-7 score in Ames last season with that Total set at 62. With this year’s battle back in Austin where these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total, expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-18 |
Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 |
Top |
117-126 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 10:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). THE SITUATION: Portland (10-3) has won four straight games with their 100-94 win over Boston on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (7-6) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 107-106 victory over Atlanta on Sunday as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers improved play can be tied to improved play on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has not allowed their last nine opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field while holding their last five opponents to just a 43.1% field goal percentage. The Lakers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Los Angeles has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Lakers stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home court — and they have also seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. LA has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against Western Conference opponents while the Trail Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Western Conference foes. Portland is also playing hard on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.2% field goal percentage — and they are holding their home hosts to just a 42.1% shooting percentage. The Trail Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Portland has also played 5 straight games Under the Total. This team has also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against a team with a winning record — and they have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: This is already the third meeting between these two teams after the Lakers pulled the upset over the Trail Blazers back on November 3rd by a 114-110 score as a 3.5-point favorite that finished well below the 236 point total. This third clash probably favors the respective defenses who can continue to fine-tune their defensive approaches against a familiar opponent. As it is, these two teams have played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing in LA. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (721) and the Los Angeles Lakers (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Giants v. 49ers UNDER 46 |
Top |
27-23 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens at quarterback who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Look for Mullens to regress a bit in this contest with the Giants having eleven days to study that tape in preparation for this game. As it is, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where at least 30 points were scored. The 49ers’ defense did a great job by limiting the Raiders’ offense to just 242 yards of offense. San Francisco has an underrated defense that 12th in the NFL by allowing only 351.7 total YPG — and that number drops to just 305.0 total YPG when they are playing at home. The 49ers have allowed only two field goals in the first-half in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of two straight games. Additionally, San Francisco has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the month of November. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. New York allowed 360 yards of offense to the Redskins — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Giants managed only 303 yards of offense behind the declining Eli Manning at quarterback. His lack of mobility combines with a decrepit offensive line produces a sluggish offense that ranks 27th in the NFL by scoring just 18.8 PPG. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Lastly, New York has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total — and they have also played twelve of their last eighteen games Under the Total on the road as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to see plenty of stalled drives where the offenses will settle for field goals. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-18 |
Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 216 |
Top |
103-98 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-8) has won of their last three games with their 111-96 win against Oklahoma City on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Chicago (4-9) has won two of their last three games as well with their 99-98 win over Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks enjoyed their best offensive performance of the season in their win over the Thunder as they shot 55.8% of their shots from the floor. Dallas also limited OKC to just a 39.2% shooting percentage — and that defensive effort should travel on the road tonight. The Mavs have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They will be a short one or two of their key contributors tonight with Wesley Matthews doubtful with a hamstring injury while rookie Luka Doncic is questionable with a knee. Dallas goes on the road where they have played 17 of their last 26 road games Under the Total with the number in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Mavericks have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Chicago is also undermanned with Bobby Portis, Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen all out with injuries. But this team is still playing hard on the defensive end of the court. They limited the Cavaliers to just a 42.9% shooting percentage on Saturday — and that is exactly the same opponent’s field goal percentage that their last five opponents have averaged. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on October 22nd with the Mavericks winning that game in Dallas by a 115-109 score. That game fell well below the 229 point total — expect this game to also finish below the number given the injuries both teams have now experienced. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (707) and the Chicago Bulls (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-18 |
Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 43.5 |
Top |
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have won and covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games while also playing 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Philly went into their bye week having suffered a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Playing just their second game of the season against a divisional rival along with having acquired wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, the reigning Super Bowl champions are feeling pretty good about themselves. Even without Tate, this offense has begun to hum as quarterback Carson Wentz gets more comfortable under center after tearing his ACL last season. The Eagles averaged 7.28 Yards-Per-Play against the Jaguars in their last game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after averaging 6.5 YPP in their last game. Philadelphia has played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC East rivals. Dallas was expected to see an immediate uptick in their offensive production with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper but they managed only 297 yards of offense on Monday as the team struggled with keeping their offensive identity with their new offensive weapon. I thought the expectations for the Cowboys offense was overestimated before their game with the Titans — and I suspect it is not being underestimated moving forward. Expect a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball tonight. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a home favorite. The loss to Tennessee followed up an upset loss to Washington the previous week — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering two straight upset losses. Dallas is going to have to generate their share of points in this game given the injuries they are dealing with on defense. The Cowboys are down two of their players in their defensive line rotation with David Irving and Randy Gregory still out — their absence on Monday played a role in Marcus Mariota having his good game at quarterback. Dallas will also be without their best defensive player in linebacker Sean Lee who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys need to get running back Ezekiel Elliot more involved in their offense after they have rushed for just 72 and 73 yards in their last two games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game against the Jaguars where they won while scoring 40 points. Dallas has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. And in their last 18 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points, the Cowboys have played 11 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three straight Unders with their last contest being that New Year’s Eve game last year where Dallas shutout the Eagles with what looked to be a hapless Nick Folk at quarterback. With Dallas’ season in the balance, expect this to be a high scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-18 |
Maryland v. Indiana OVER 54.5 |
Top |
32-34 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). THE SITUATION: Maryland (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-3 loss to Michigan State last week as a 3-point underdog. Indiana (4-5) has lost four games in a row with their 38-31 upset loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It has been feast or famine for the Terrapins on offense this season as they have scored 63 points against Illinois, 42 points against Minnesota and 34 points against Rutgers but managed only a field goal overall against Iowa and the Spartans. Perhaps the three touchdowns that Maryland scored against the mighty Michigan defense is the best line on their offensive resume. The Terrapins caught an angry Sparty last week that was embarrassed by the Wolverines in East Lansing the previous week. But Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. The Terrapins managed only 100 yards of offense against Michigan State — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now Maryland goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 10 road games as an underdog getting no more than a field goal, the Terrapins have played 8 of these games Over the Total. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Hoosiers surrendered 308 passing yards in that game — and the Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Indiana has scored 59 points over their last two games after they put up 28 points against Penn State. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are fighting to become bowl eligible — and this level of desperation between mid-level teams can create high-scoring contests. Maryland upset Indiana last year by a 42-39 score as a +6.5-point underdog last season with the Total set in the 53.5 range. Expect another high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (145) and the Indiana Hoosiers (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-18 |
Panthers v. Steelers OVER 50.5 |
Top |
21-52 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh generated 395 yards in that game against the Ravens — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL by averaging 415.2 total YPG — and they are averaging 432.2 total YPG over their last three games. They return home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG — and their four home games are averaging 56.9 combined points scored. Ben Roethlisberger should have a big game against the suspect Panthers’ secondary that his allowing 250.9 passing YPG which ranks 19th in the NFL. Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 313.6 passing YPG — and over his last sixteen starts, Big Ben is averaging 326.2 passing YPG while tossing 39 TD passes. He should have plenty of time to attack the Carolina defense. The Steelers’ offensive line is helping their QB get hit only 8.7% of their passing attempts which is tops in the NFL — and this offense ranks 2nd in the league by seeing their QB get sacked in only 3.1% of their passing attempts. The Panthers are bottom-ten in the league with their 21 team sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total. The Steelers’ strong run defense will likely force Carolina into relying on the arm of Cam Newton. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than 74 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Steelers have played 28 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 75 or fewer rushing yards in at least three straight games. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, Carolina has played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Panthers scored five touchdowns in the first half against the Buccaneers before going into cruise control and finishing that game with 407 total yards of offense. Carolina has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after generating at least 400 yards in their last contest. Carolina is scoring 33.0 PPG over their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Newton only attempted 25 passes last week which was the second-lowest amount all season. He has tossed at least two TD passes in seven straight games. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-18 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
15-38 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Toledo (5-4) has won two straight games with their 45-13 win over Ball State last Wednesday as a 19.5-point favorite. Northern Illinois (6-3) has won five straight games with their 36-26 win at Akron as a 6-point favorite last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets scored one of their touchdowns by recovering a fumble in the end zone — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they generated 531 yards of offense in that game, they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Toledo rushed for 204 yards in that game against the Cardinals last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The team will likely continue to commit to establishing their ground game with junior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni likely out for this game with a shoulder injury. Sophomore Eli Peters will get his third start tonight — but he is struggling in the passing game as he is completing only 53.7% of his passes. Protecting Peters will also be an issue tonight as the Rockets have allowed 21 sacks this season — and the Huskies have compiled 32 QB sacks this season. Toledo has steadily improved on defense as they are allowing only 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They have also held their last three opponents to just 118.7 rushing YPG which is more than 50 YPG below their season average rush defense. The Under is 25-12-1 in the Rockets’ last 38 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of November. Northern Illinois generated 484 yards of offense in their win over the Zips — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Huskies return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Northern Illinois has also played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points. The Huskies are led by their defense that ranks 29th in the nation by allowing only 21.7 PPG. That number drops to just 18.0 PPG when they are playing at home — and they have allowed only 17.7 PPG over their last three games while holding those opponents to just 327.7 total YPG. Northern Illinois thrives in stopping the run as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing only 103.8 rushing YPG. The Huskies limited Akron to just 35 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. But this Northern Illinois team struggles to create offensive as they rank 123rd in the FBS by scoring 19.2 PPG while also ranking 125th in the nation by generating only 309.4 total YPG. Only 139.1 of those yards come from their passing game which ranks 121st in the nation — yet they are only averaging 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry from their rushing attack. Playing at home has not helped this offense either as they are scoring only 18.0 PPG along with just 304.0 total YPG. The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against MAC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 encounters between these two teams when playing at Northern Illinois. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams that face significant albeit different challenges on offense. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (103) and the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-18 |
Hurricanes v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the Arizona Coyotes (56). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-5-1) has lost two straight games with their 3-2 loss to Boston on Tuesday. Arizona (6-5-0) has won four straight games with their 5-1 win over Ottawa on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Coyotes have scored 27 goals over their last six games which is the most in the NHL during that span — but this scoring brigade includes five goals scored short-handed over their last three games which is not likely to keep going. Arizona’s six short-handed goals this season lead the NHL. The Coyotes have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last game — and this includes them playing nine of their last eleven games on their home ice Under the Total after scoring at least five goals in their last contest. Additionally, Arizona has also played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This is also a team that leads the NHL by allowing only 1.91 Goals-Per-Game — and they are even stingier at home where their visitors are allowing only 1.40 Goals-Per-Game. In their four-game winning streak, the Coyotes have allowed only four combined goals. This team is getting outstanding goaltending from Antti Raanta. Last year, Raanta boasted a .930 save percentage along with a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average in forty-four starts in a season cut short by injuries. This year, Raanta has continued this torrid level of play by posting a 1.99 GAA along with a .926 save percentage — and he has been even nastier at home where he owns a 1.51 GAA along with a .940 save percentage. Carolina has failed to score more than two goals five times this season. They are scoring only 2.2 Goals-Per-Game in their last five contests — but they are allowing only 2.4 Goals-Per-Game over that span. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Hurricanes go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Carolina has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing three straight games at home. They will likely turn to Petr Mrazek between the pipes who has a good 2.05 GAA in his three starts on the road this year with a solid .917 save percentage. Moving forward, the Hurricanes have played 9 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total when playing in Phoenix. Expect the Coyotes’ stinginess to continue in this game in what should be a low-scoring game. 25* NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Hurricanes (55) and the Arizona Coyotes (56). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
3-34 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have lost three straight games by double-digits with that loss to the Colts. Oakland has played 32 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home including playing five of their last six games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points at home. The Raiders have also played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight double-digit losses. Oakland needs to play better on defense after surrendering 461 yards to Indianapolis. The Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 305 yards in their last games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland will likely try to establish the run to help keep their defense off the field — the Raiders only had the ball for 23:30 minutes last week. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 40 games Under the Total after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They managed just 267 yards of offense against a not-so-great Arizona defense while blowing a 15-3 fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries on that side of the ball with the most significant being to quarterback C.J. Beathard. The backup to Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with an injured wrist to his throwing hand which leaves him 50-50 to play tonight as of this afternoon’s updates — so this looks like one of those situations where even if he plays, he will not be close to 100%. The third-stringer at QB in Nick Mullens who has yet to take a snap in a regular season game. The Niners are also dealing with injuries at running back with both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert listed as questionable with injuries. Both are expected to play tonight — but the nagging high ankle sprain to Breida has kept him under 75 yards of rushing in five straight games. This won’t likely stop head coach Kyle Shanahan from trying to run the football as his team has attempted at least 30 rushes in three of their last four games — and they rank 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. The 49ers should have some success in moving the chains against the Raiders defense that is last in the NFL by surrendering 144.7 rushing YPG. Yet San Francisco only scores 19.3 PPG when they are playing at home. Their defense does hold their opponents to just 326.0 total YPG when playing at home in Levi Stadium. Moving forward, the 49ers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games on a Thursday night Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the ball on offense, expect these two teams hungry for a win attempt to win this game on the line of scrimmage. On the short week for both these teams, expect both coaches to look to go back to basics with the hopes of grinding out a win. That is a formula for a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-18 |
Temple v. Central Florida UNDER 62 |
Top |
40-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has won three straight games with their 24-17 win in overtime versus an undefeated Cincinnati team back on October 20th by a 24-17 score as a -2.5-point favorite. Central Florida (7-0) looks to extend their 20-game winning streak coming off their 37-10 win at East Carolina back on October 20th as a -21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights may receive most of their attention because they hold the nation’s longest winning streak in the nation. Their offense also gets plenty of attention since it ranks 5th in the nation in scoring (44.4 PPG) and 6th in the nation in total offense (537.1 total YPG). But the Central Florida defense is not getting enough credit as that unit also ranks 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 18.1. PPG. And back on their home field, the Knights see that number drop to just 17.5 PPG — and they are limiting their visitors to just 324.0 total YPG. Central Florida has played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Central Florida has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a bye week. Their starting quarterback McKenzie Milton is listed as questionable with head coach Josh Heupel indicating he will be a game-time decision after missing their last game with the Pirates with an ankle injury. Redshirt freshman Darriel Mack struggled to pass the ball in his absence as he only accounted for 69 passing yards — but it looks like Milton will be cleared to play in this game tonight. Regardless, look for the Knights to commit to running the football as they rank 7th in the FBS by averaging 261 rushing YPG. UCF generated 316 yards on the ground without Milton under center which helped them outrush East Carolina by +226 yards. The Knights have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Temple rushed for only 80 yards while giving the Bearcats their first loss of the season. They were without their star rusher, Ryquell Armstead, in that game — and he is questionable for this contest still with his ankle injury. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins is getting outstanding play out of his defense that has steadily improved this season much like last year. The Owls rank 23rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 330.5 total YPG — and that number actually drops to a 300.7 total YPG mark when they are playing on the road. Over their last three games, Temple is holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong play should continue as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. That game with Cincinnati finished Under the 47 point total, the Owls have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total following a game that finished Under the Total — and they have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, Temple is getting gritty but spotty play from their sophomore quarterback Anthony Russo who won the starting gig earlier this season but is completing only 56.5% of his passes while sporting a subpar 9:10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Owls will lean heavily on their outstanding pass defense that is 18th in the FBS with 24 sacks which has helped them rank 4th in the nation overall by allowing only 147.5 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Because Milton has practiced this week, the Total has shot up to the 60 range after opening in the 56.6 range. Temple’s formula for defeating their second straight unbeaten opponent will be to slow down their offense and grind out a lower-scoring game. While the Owls may not have enough offensive firepower to pull out the upset, except their defense to keep them competitive while avoiding a shootout. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Temple Owls (313) and the Central Florida Knights (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Saints v. Vikings UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. New Orleans has also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Expect the Saints to once again focus on their ground game to win the Time of Possession battle which keeps their defense fresh while keeping a good offense off their home field. That was the formula for success last week against the Ravens as they ran the ball 39 times for 134 yards which helped them control Time of Possession for 33:31 minutes. New Orleans is also playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Their pass defense received a boost this week with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple — I expect him to get some time on the field in this game in obvious passing situations despite just joining the team. New Orleans stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of October. Minnesota has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Vikings have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Mike Zimmer’s team has stepped up their play on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with just 298.7 total YPG. This unit is also the top 3rd down in the NFL — and they will be getting a boost in this game with their elite defensive end Everson Griffen cleared to play again by the team after dealing with some off-the-field issues. The Vikings offense is undermanned with running back Delvin Cook out with a hamstring and left tackle Riley Reiff also out with a foot injury. Minnesota is only scoring 19.0 PPG on their home field while averaging 348.7 total YPG which is more than 30 yards below their season average. But their visitors are averaging just 296.0 total YPG. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of the last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Minnesota offense exploded for 37 points last week, they have then played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points. The Vikings had only 316 yards of offense in that win over the Jets but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Minnesota has then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least a +2 net turnover margin. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Vikings have played 8 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While it might be tempting to think these two teams with potent passing attacks will get into a shootout, this shapes up to be a game where both teams will be looking to keep the other team’s offense off the field. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-18 |
Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-1 |
Loss |
-102 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. THE SITUATION: Boston (118-57) seized a 3-1 lead in the World Series last night with their come-from-behind 9-6 victory over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. And while Boston has just a .219 batting average over their last five games in these playoffs, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a five-game span where they did not have better than a .225 batting average clip. This team is still scoring 6.1 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs even after that recent slide. They give the ball to Price who was 16-7 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in thirty regular season starts. The left-hander was much better at home in Fenway Park where he had a 2.98 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .213 — but those numbers spike to a 4.31 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .249 when pitching on the road. Price also had a 3.89 ERA in his twenty-one regular season starts at night. Additionally, many of Price’s notorious struggles in the playoffs have been on the road given his career 6.02 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. Los Angeles (100-78) had their bullpen surrender 8 runs in just three innings of work after that group logged-in eleven innings in Friday night’s 18 inning marathon. The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 36 games Over the Total when their bullpen has pitched at least 9 combined innings in their last two games. Los Angeles has also now played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against American League teams with a winning record. They counter with their ace Kershaw who only pitched 4 innings while giving up 5 earned runs in his Game One start against the Red Sox in the World Series. The lefty has a 4.60 ERA in the playoffs in his career — and the Dodgers have played 7 of their last 11 games in the playoffs Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With the Dodgers playing with desperation — but also a tired bullpen — expect another high-scoring game. Price is pitching on short rest — and the Boston bullpen will be looking forward to (at least) one day off tomorrow. 25* MLB Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (909) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (910) listing both starting pitchers David Price and Clayton Kershaw. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-18 |
NC State v. Syracuse UNDER 66 |
Top |
41-51 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). THE SITUATION: NC State (5-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 41-7 loss at Clemson as an +18.5-point underdog. Syracuse (5-2) enters this game coming off a 40-37 win in overtime over North Carolina as a -9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolfpack have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. NC State managed only 297 yards of offense against the Tigers in that game — and they have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wolfpack are scoring 28.7 PPG this season — but the number drops to just 22.0 PPG in their two games on the road so far this year. NC State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on the road. The Wolfpack did allow 471 yards to Clemson in that first loss of the season — but not only have they then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game while also seeing the Under go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. NC State does have a good defense that ranks 31st in the nation by allowing 20.8 PPG. Syracuse has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also seen the Under go 9-2-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread setback. The Orange did generate 546 yards of offense in that game that needed overtime to resolve — but they have then see the Under go 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Syracuse allowed 500 yards to the Tar Heels in that contest as well — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Orange stay at home where they are making it difficult for opponents to move the football. Syracuse is allowing only 18.7 PPG in four contests at home. The Under is 11-3-1 in the Orange’s last 15 games home — and this includes the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: This Total has risen to the high-60s in large part because of the fast pace that this Syracuse engages in under head coach Dino Babers’s up-tempo system. But the Wolfpack head coach Dave Doreen will be well aware of this dynamic and look to slow the game down when his team has the football. NC State won last year’s meeting with the Orange by a 33-25 score which fell well below the 62.5 total. That was the 5th game finish Under the Total in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (125) and the Syracuse Orange (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-18 |
Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
23-42 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have turned to Brock Osweiler at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury. Osweiler was outstanding in his first start against the Bears where he led an offense that tallied 541 yards while averaging 7.21 Yards-Per-Play. The Miami offense slowed down last week against the Lions by generating 322 yards while averaging 6.44 YPP. The Dolphins have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after gaining at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Osweiler faces his toughest challenge yet against his former team with the Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien and his defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel likely licking their chops to get after their former quarterback who was an utter flop after signing a big contract with them. Osweiler will also be limited tonight with his wide receiving unit being a M*A*S*H unit right now with DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson all out for this game. After playing their last two games at home, the Dolphins go on the road where they are scoring 14.5 PPG while averaging just 242.0 total YPG. Miami has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, Miami is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a short-week Thursday game. Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. O’Brien wants his team grinding out low-scoring games as his team has not scored above 22 points more than once this year. The Texans have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game under O’Brien. The Houston defense is playing quite well as they have only 12.0 PPG along with just 260.0 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans held the Jaguars to only 70 rushing yards on 22 carries — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. With Miami’s depleted wide receiving corps, they will commit to running the football — but they will go against a Houston defense that is holding opposing rushers to just 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry. The Dolphins have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams wants a higher scoring game — especially when both of these teams are playing on a short week. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-18 |
Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 |
Top |
2-4 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 8:09 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. THE SITUATION: Boston (116-56) won Game One of the World Series last night by an 8-4 score over the Dodgers.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Red Sox have now won five straight games in these playoffs — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning at least five straight games. Boston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory. Additionally, the Over is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games home in Fenway Park — and they have also played 16 of their last 25 home games Over the Total when the Total is set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They turn to Price tonight who was outstanding last Thursday when he helped the Red Sox close out the ALCS in Houston by pitching six scoreless innings in the win. But while Price’s postseason struggles were perhaps a bit overblown, he still has underachieved in the playoffs when compared to his regular season performances given his 5.04 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work which includes a 5.11 ERA this postseason even after last Friday’s strong effort. Price had a 3.58 ERA in thirty regular season starts but he did see his ERA rise to a 3.90 mark in his twenty-one starts at night. Boston has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total with Price pitching after a start where he did not allow more than one earned run — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with Price following up a start where he did not allow an earned run. He faces this Dodgers’ team that has now seen the Over go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Los Angeles (99-76) has also now played 7 of their last road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 games in Interleague play. And in their last 16 games as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range, Los Angeles has played 11 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Ryu who was 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen regular season starts. But the left-hander was not nearly as effective on the road where he saw his ERA and WHIP rise to 3.58 and 1.23 marks. Ryu was hit hard for seven hits and five earned runs in his last start which was in Milwaukee last Friday where he did only pitch 3 innings. He faces this Red Sox team tonight that is scoring 5.9 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and this is Ryu’s first ever start in Fenway Park with its menacing Green Monster an inviting target for right-handed batters. The Over is 8-1-2 in Boston’s last 11 home games in their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is also 34-16-2 in their last games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: The Dodgers will be playing with desperation in this game after losing last night and not wanting to return to LA down 0-2 in this series. The Total was a run lower at 7.5 yesterday with the Clayton Kershaw-Chris Sale showdown — yet expect another higher-scoring game between these two left-handed starting pitchers in Fenway Park. 25* MLB Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (903) and the Boston Red Sox (904) listing both starting pitchers Hyun-Jun Ryu and David Price. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-18 |
Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
38-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-2) enters this game coming off their 22-16 upset loss at Liberty back on October 13th as a 12-point favorite. South Alabama (2-5) looks to build off their 45-7 win over Alabama State as a 27.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This team had a hole to fill at quarterback in the offseason with the graduation of a four-year starter in Brandon Silvers. Junior Kaleb Barker was the top quarterback on the depth chart — but he has suffered a season-ending ACL injury. That leaves head coach Neal Brown to should between sophomore Sawyer Smith and freshman Gunner Watson who have played against the Flames but combined to pass for just 160 yards. Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. This team had to replace their top two running backs from last year in Jordan Chunn and Josh Anderson — top in line was junior Jamarius Henderson who averaged 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry last year but he has suspended indefinitely this season. That is a lot of attrition of offensive talent — and while the Trojans are scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 413.6 total YPG, those numbers drop to 25.0 PPG along with just 338.3 total YPG in their three games on the road. Troy does hold their home hosts to just 22.7 PPG. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games on the road — and this includes them playing four of their last five road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Trojans have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games in October overall. South Alabama has also experienced attrition at the quarterback position this season. The losses started in the spring when Dallas Davis left the program two days before the Spring Game. The senior had been the team’s starter in the previous two seasons. Fellow senior Cole Garvin was indefinitely suspended in mid-September leaving the team in the hands of senior Evan Orth who is leading an offense that is 113th in the nation by averaging just 343.0 total YPG. The Jaguars have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a bye week. South Alabama has held their three visiting teams to just 22.7 PPG along with only 343.7 total YPG. The Jaguars defense has not forced a turnover in their last two games — but they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they did not force a turnover while also playing 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not forcing at least one turnover in each of their last two games. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in South Alabama’s last 8 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. With both teams dealing with less than ideal quarterback situations and both coaching staffs having extra time to scheme and prepare for these respective offenses, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (101) and the South Alabama Jaguars (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-22-18 |
Leicester v. Arsenal OVER 3 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (6-0-2) takes the pitch again in English Premier League play after the international break that they went in on with a 5-1 victory over Fulham back on October 7th. Leicester City (4-0-4) went into the two-week international break on a 2-1 loss at home to Everton on October 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is one of the hottest teams in the EPL. They are looking for their tenth straight victory in all competitions as well as their seventh straight win in EPL play. The Gunners are clicking under first-year coach Unai Emery’s high-pressing, counter-attack system that creates scoring opportunities. Arsenal has scored 19 goals this season for a crisp 2.38 Goals-Per-Game scoring average. Part of the improved success for this team has certainly been because of a favorable turn of the schedule. The Gunners opened their EPL season with a difficult road against Manchester City and then Chelsea. Their six EPL matches since have been against teams outside the traditional top-six franchises (like Leicester City). In those matches, Arsenal has scored 17 goals while finding the back of the net at least twice in all those contests. The other factor that has jumpstarted this group is Emery’s decision to play Alexandre Lacazette at forward at the same time with striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. These two have developed a nice chemistry between them to form a dangerous combination of scoring threats. They each scored twice in that match against Fulham. But Emery’s high-pressing style risks making the back-line vulnerable to attack — and quality defensemen is a weakness of this team. Leicester City scores goals — they have 14 goals this season while scoring in all eight of their matches. Jamie Vardy remains one of the best strikers in all of the EPL after his star-making season in 2015-15 when he led the Foxes to the surprising EPL title. Leicester City also has found a spark plug to jumpstart their offense with midfielder James Maddison who they signed in the summer transfer period from Norwich City. Vardy has three goals with one assist this season despite a slow start to the season after helping England’s run to the Semifinals at the World Cup — and then he missed another two matches after receiving a Red Card suspension. Maddison has three goals with two assists from his midfield position. But the Foxes’ defense too often is leaky as they have allowed 12 goals this season — including 9 goals in their last five matches for a concurring 1.80 Goals-Allowed mark. Their defense will be shorthanded for this match with their captain Wes Morgan unavailable after he was issued a Red Card in that match with the Toffees two weeks ago.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has played two top-six opponents this season with both ending in 2-1 losses to Liverpool and Manchester United. It seems that the Gunners scoring twice and the Foxes scoring once is the baseline for this match — so let’s take our (good) chances that a fourth goal will be scored in this one this afternoon. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (2501) and Arsenal (2502). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-18 |
North Texas v. UAB UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
21-29 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). THE SITUATION: North Texas (6-1) has won two straight games coming off their 30-7 win over Southern Mississippi last Saturday as 7-point favorites. UAB (5-1) has won four in a row with their 42-0 shutout win at Rice last week as 17-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers are playing outstanding defense — they have allowed only 14 combined points over their last three games. They held the Owls to just 186 yards last week — and they should continue their strong play on the defensive side of the football. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win of at least three touchdowns against a Conference USA rival. Now this team returns home where they are holding their guests to just 10.3 PPG along with only 265.3 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home field. Additionally, UAB has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total in the month of October. And while the Blazers put up 42 points last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. North Texas has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Mean Green also play stout defense as they rank 19th in the FBS by allowing only 17.6 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.0 PPG when they are playing on the road. UNT thrives in stopping the run as they rank 7th in the nation by allowing just 97.0 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 104 and 50 rushing yards respectively in each of their last two games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Mean Green have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Toal after winning two straight games — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Lastly, UNT has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted in the low-50s for this game given the strong offenses both these teams have along with the memory of the 46-43 barn-burner between these two teams last season with the Mean Green pulled out. Both of these defenses are much improved this season — expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (385) and the UAB Blazers (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-18 |
Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8 |
Top |
8-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 8:39 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. THE SITUATION: Boston (112-56) took a 2-1 lead in this series last night with their 5-2 victory over the Astros in the American League Championship Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Houston (107-60) has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a loss by at least four runs — and they have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least six runs. Additionally, the Astros have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by at least six runs. Houston has now seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games at home — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total at home when priced as a favorite in the -100 to -150 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 14-2-1 in the Astros’ last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They give the ball to Morton who is 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander does see his ERA rise to a 3.21 mark in his sixteen starts at home. Morton has a 4.03 ERA in his six appearances in the playoffs in his career which includes five starts. Morton has struggled against the Red Sox this season with a 6.97 ERA with a 1.84 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings of work. He faces a Boston team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game in these playoffs — and they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Boston has scored fifteen runs in the last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after scoring at least seven runs in two straight games. The Red Sox have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander is not as effective on the road where he has a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and .226 opponent’s batting average at home. Porcello also has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in his twenty-six starts at night. He did allow only one earned run in 5 innings of work in his last start against the Yankees in Game Four of the ALDS — but Boston has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when he is following up a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. He faces an Astros team that is scoring 5.8 Runs-Per-Game in the playoffs with a .262 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .824. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Astros against this Red Sox team playing with proverbial house money with their opportunity to seize a 3-1 lead in this series with two potential games still to be played back home at Fenway Park. That is a recipe for a high-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the Houston Astros (914) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
49ers v. Packers OVER 46 |
Top |
30-33 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers went into the locker rooms trailing by a 24-0 score in that game — and they left up to 13 points off the board with their place-kicker Mason Crosby missing four field goals along with an extra point. The veteran kicker should rebound at home tonight with a better effort. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Packers have played 39 of their last 49 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field in the first half of their last contest. And they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, then Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. They also have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Packers have played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 220 yards of offense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco’s defense ranks 28th in the NFL by allowing 29.2 PPG — and that number rises to a 30.3 PPG mark when playing on the road. They rank 26th in the NFL with just 9 sacks — and they are averaging a sack in only 22 passing plays. Aaron Rodgers will likely have plenty of clean pockets against this Niners defense that is making hits on the quarterback in just 13.5% of opposing teams’ passing attempts. San Francisco has played four straight games Over the Total — and they have not only played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing an Over while also playing 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is scoring to score plenty of points in this one — but expect the 49ers offense to keep up find points against the overrated Packers’ defense. Niners’ QB C.J. Beathard was productive last week by completing 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with TD passes. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-18 |
Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:39 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-3) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 4-4 victory over the Brewers in the second game of the National League Championship Series. This series moves to Los Angeles for the next three games.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have played 22 of their last 34 games Under the Total after a victory by two runs or less. Now they return home to Los Angeles for the first time since October 5th — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-two starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.12 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 in eleven starts (twelve appearances). The Under is 10-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 12 home games with Buehler on the hill. He will be supported by a hot bullpen that has a 1.99 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP over their last seven games. Milwaukee (100-68) has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have now played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Brewers have played 39 of their last 58 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They counter with Chacin who is 15-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The right-hander has been better on the road this year where he sees his ERA and WHIP drop to 3.41 and 1.10 marks along with an opponent’s batting average of .211. Milwaukee has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with Chacin on the hill. Chacin will be supported the outstanding Brewers bullpen that has a 2.73 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP over their last seven games — even after their pen allowed the four runs that cost them Game Two. Manager Craig Counsel will have Josh Hader available to pitch in this game after he logged in three scoreless in their opening game win in this series. The fireballing left-hander has not allowed an earned run in his last five appearances spanning 7 1/3 innings of work where he allowed only three hits and no walks while striking out eleven batters.
FINAL TAKE: To accommodate the prime-time programming for the east coast, this game will be played in the late afternoon in Los Angeles — and that means shadows which can challenge the sight-lines for the batters. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-18 |
Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 60 |
Top |
40-43 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes is an exciting young quarterback — but as the Denver Broncos have already shown, he can be slowed down. The second-year QB “only” threw for 304 yards in that game which was the last time the Chiefs were on the road two weeks ago — and they exposed some tendencies that the Patriots’ defensive staff can exploit. More importantly, Kansas City scored only 27 points in that game — and a similar effort would keep this game Under the Total. Mahomes still have some technique issues while being too eager to leave the pocket — and I expect the New England defense to use take advantage of these flaws his game. The more tape that gets created on these new starting QBs, the more opposing coaching staffs find areas to attack. It is telling that Mahomes has only thrown one touchdown pass in his last 95 passing attempts. The Chiefs offense was also responsible for seven offensive penalties the last time they played in front of a hostile environment in that Broncos game. As it is, Kansas City has 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chiefs game with the Broncos was their lowest scoring game of the season. Not only have they played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games but they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. KC raced out to a 20-0 halftime lead against the Jaguars last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total owning a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Patriots are going to play ball-control offense and keep-away to burn time off the clock to frustrate Mahomes (and his head coach Andy Reid who almost always gets stymied by this tactic in the playoffs). New England has gone to halftime in their last two games with 24-3 and 24-0 leads — and they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Patriots generated 438 yards of offense last week against the Colts after gaining 449 yards in their previous game against the Dolphins — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Furthermore, not only has New England played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road but they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Look, I know that scoring is up — and we have successfully take a bunch Overs this year. But this just looks like irrational exuberance that this Total was bet up into the 60s at one point as if this is a Big 12 contest. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-18 |
South Florida v. Tulsa UNDER 62 |
Top |
25-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Florida Bulls (109) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (110). THE SITUATION: South Florida (5-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 58-42 win at UMass as a 14-point favorite. Tulsa (1-4) has lost four straight games after their 41-26 loss at Houston last Thursday as a +17.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulls have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. South Florida got 302 rushing yards from Jordan Cronkite on just 23 carries in that game — and he will get the ball plenty in this game against a Golden Hurricanes run defense that is 110th in the FBS by allowing 207.4 rushing YPG. This should ensure a running clock for much of this game — the Bulls have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. South Florida surrendered 401 passing yards last week to the Minutemen — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last contest. Second-year head coach Charlie Strong will want a better effort from his defense. South Florida has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. The Bulls stay on the road this week where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Tulsa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after two straight losses. The Golden Hurricanes are playing better than their record indicates — they are outgaining their opponents by +16.8 net YPG. But turnovers are doing this team in as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging -1.4 net turnovers per game. Tulsa turned the ball over three times in their last to the Cougars — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. Fourth-year head coach Philip Montgomery is sitting on a scalding hot seat after this poor start — so he has decided to go young at quarterback by naming Seth Boomer his starter tonight in lieu of an injured Luke Skipper who has been dealing with back issues. The redshirt freshman played against Houston last week — but he lacks the mobility of Skipper and is completing only 41.9% of his passes. The Golden Hurricanes will likely lean heavily on their ground game tonight — especially with Shamari Brooks healthy again and able to join Corey Taylor at running back after he missed last week’s game. Running the football will also protect the Tulsa defense that surrendered 312 rushing yards last week. The Golden Hurricanes have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 rushing yards in their last game. They allowed Houston to average 7.04 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.25 YPP. Despite these recent numbers, this is an improved Golden Hurricanes defense. They are allowing 380.0 total YPG which ranks 68th in the nation — but this is significantly better than the 528.9 total YPG they allowed last season which was 127th in the FBS. Moving forward, Tulsa has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: I considered Tulsa closely in this situation as I expect South Florida to underperform— but with the new QB under center for the Golden Hurricanes, the Under is a stronger play. Both teams will commit to running the football which will help our Under play. 25* CFB Friday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the South Florida Bulls (109) and the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-18 |
Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
34-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a gut check game for both these NFC East teams — and I look for both teams to attempt to impose their will at the line of scrimmage on this short week game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have lost these last two games by 5 combined points — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by 6 points or less. Philly has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Eagles are banged up on offense especially with their rushing attack. Running back Jay Ajayi was put on Injured Reserve with his ACL injury while Darren Sproles will remain out for this game hamstring. Corey Clement will play but he is still dealing with a groin — and Philly’s All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson was added the injury list this morning being questionable with an ankle. As it is, Philadelphia is scoring only 20.6 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. Yet despite this attrition, the Eagles are likely to try to run the ball behind Wendell Smallwood against this Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in the league by allowing 124.4 rushing YPG. Philadelphia is still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. They have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards this season — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in five straight games. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. But the Eagles did give up 298 passing yards last week — yet Philly has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Manning did pass for 326 yards last week against the Carolina defense — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. New York returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total. The Giants have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing eight of their last ten games Under the Total at home as an underdog. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC East foes, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game finds themselves in a big hole in the NFC East standings. My expectation of both coaches wanting to be physical and win at the line of scrimmage should translate into both teams looking establish their rushing attack — and this will shorten the length of the game. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-18 |
Coyotes v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Coyotes (55) and the Anaheim Ducks (56). THE SITUATION: Arizona (0-2-0) takes the ice again after their 1-0 loss at home to the Ducks on Saturday. Anaheim (3-0-0) followed that victory up with a 3-2 win over Detroit in overtime on Monday to keep their perfect start to the season going.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Coyotes have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after being shutout — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss by just one goal to one of their Pacific Division rivals. Arizona was second-to-last in the NHL last year by scoring only 2.51 Goals-Per-Game. The team hoped they jumpstarted their offensive production in the offseason when they gave up on the underachieving Max Domi by trading him to Montreal for another young forward in Alex Galchenyuk. The plan was to put the winger at center to let the 24-year old anchor their second-line. The former 30-goal scorer found the back of the net 19 times last year in the Canadiens lost season. But these plans have been delayed with Galchenyuk with a lower body injury. The Coyotes have yet to score this season — but they have allowed only four goals in their two games this year. Arizona has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing their last two games Under the Total. This team can still rely on their underrated goaltender Antti Raanta who had an outstanding .930 save percentage last year with a 2.24 Goals-Against-Average last year. Raanta registered a Quality Start (either by stopping at least .917 of the shots he faced or not allowing more than two goals while posting a save percentage of at least .885) percentage of .696 last year so he offers us a very good chance to see another low-scoring game tonight. The Coyotes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Anaheim has played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after a victory by just one goal — and they have played 13 of their last 15 home games after a win in overtime. Led by goalie John Gibson, the Coyotes are playing outstanding defense as they have allowed only four goals in their three games so far this season. The Ducks have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than two goals in two straight games. Gibson is 2nd in the NHL with a .924 save percentage for all qualifying goals over the last three seasons — and he boasted a 1.95 Goals-Against-Average with a .937 save percentage after the All-Star Break with both numbers being the best in the league during that stretch. Anaheim struggled to score last year by averaging only 2.52 Goals-Per-Game which was in the league and the worst of all sixteen teams that made the playoffs. They are missing their aging veteran forwards in Ryan Kesler, Patrick Eaves and Corey Perry for an extended period of time while banking on a trio of rookie forwards to fill in the gaps. This Anaheim team has seen the Under go 21-8-2 in their last 31 games against fellow Pacific Division opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Head coach Rick Toccet has had plenty of time to game plan against the new crop of rookies contributing at forward for the Ducks. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Coyotes (55) and the Anaheim Ducks (56). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 |
Top |
4-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. THE SITUATION: Boston (110-55) seized a 2-1 lead in this ALDS last night with their 16-1 beatdown against the Yankees. The Red Sox have the opportunity to close out this series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, the Red Sox have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least ten rounds. Furthermore, Boston has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as a money-line underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Porcello who is 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in thirty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 1.27 WHIP with an opponent’s batting average of .253 in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .226 at home. Porcello also tends to struggle in night games where he has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-six starts. The Red Sox have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total with Porcello pitching after a victory on their last game. He faces a Yankees team that has played 7 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. New York (102-64) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last contest. The Yankees have also played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. Aaron Boone has issues with his bullpen after the logged in 6 innings last night after he used his bullpen for 4 innings in each of the first two games of this series. New York has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game where their bullpen pitched at least 6 innings — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after having their bullpen pitch at least 4 innings in three straight games. They counter with Sabathia who is 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The Yankees have played 5 straight games Over the Total when Sabathia is pitching after a game where they allowed at least five runs. He faces a hot-hitting Red Sox lineup that is scoring 8.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .301 batting average along with a .384 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .897 over that span.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters in Yankee Stadium Over the Total. With the Bronx Bombers facing the possible end of their season tonight, expect another high-scoring game. 25* MLB Red Sox-Yankees’ O/U A-List Special with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Rick Porcello and C.C. Sabathia. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Redskins v. Saints OVER 51 |
Top |
19-43 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. New Orleans generated 389 yards in that contest with the Giants — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Drew Brees leads a powerful offense that is scoring 34.2 PPG while averaging 418.2 total YPG — and they get running back Mark Ingram back from his four-game suspension which gives them a power running back while keeping the electric Alvin Kamara fresh. But the Saints’ defense has been another story — and they are allowing their visitors to score 33.0 PPG along with averaging 428.0 total YPG in the Superdome this season. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. The New Orleans lack of a pass rush will likely give Washington quarterback Alex Smith plenty of time to pick apart their secondary. The Saints are fourth from the bottom of the league with just 18 hits on the quarterback and their nine sacks are 12th from the bottom. The Skins have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Washington has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the month of October. Furthermore, the Skins have played 15 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the low-50s for this game. Scoring is up this season with the offseason rule changes helping the offenses in protecting the quarterback and in being more liberal in defining what a catch is. Plenty of these games are still finishing below the number — but both these teams tend to play higher-scoring games so I do expect this to be a shootout. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
16-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: New York (102-65) evened this series at 1-1 on Saturday with their 6-2 victory over the Red Sox in Game Two of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Yankees have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. New York has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 9 straight games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. Additionally, the Yankees have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against fellow AL East opponents. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts this season. The right-hander did not allow an earned run when he pitched the first 4 innings of the Yanks’ AL Wild Card playoff game against the A’s — but New York has played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total when Severino comes off a start where he did not allow more than one earned run. The Over is also 18-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 home games with Severino on the hill — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Severino facing the Red Sox. Boston (109-55) is still scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .282 batting average along with a .362 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .862 over that span. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 18-6-2 in Boston’s last 26 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after an off-day. Furthermore, the Red Sox have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They counter with Eovaldi who is 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-one starts. The right-hander sees his ERA skyrocket to a 5.14 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .274 in thirteen road starts. Eovaldi also has a 5.11 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .287 at night. The Over is 4-1-1 in Boston’s last 6 games with Eovaldi facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Bronx Bombers team that is scoring 7.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while hitting a .274 batting average with a .350 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .866 during that span. The Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams in a pivotal third game of this American League Divisional Series. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (913) and the New York Yankees (914) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-08-18 |
Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 |
Top |
11-3 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. THE SITUATION: Houston (105-59) has taken a 2-0 lead in this ALDS with their 3-1 victory over the Indians in the second game of this series on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Indians return home for the first time since September 23rd in this must-win elimination game. Cleveland has seen the Over go 4-0-2 in their last 6 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Indians have also played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Additionally, the Over is 8-3-2 in Cleveland’s last 13 games after a loss — and the Over is 6-2-2 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their last game. They give the ball to Clevinger who is 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in thirty-two starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.14 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in seventeen starts. The Indians have seen the Over go 10-4-2 in their last 16 home games with Clevinger on the hill. The Cleveland bullpen is struggling as of late as well. Over their last five games, the Indians’ bullpen has an ERA of 8.82 — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when their bullpen has an ERA of at least 6.50 over their last five games. Houston (105-59) has played 14 of their last 18 playoff games Over the Total in the ALDS. The Astros have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. They counter with Keuchel who is 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in thirty-four starts. The lefty has not been as effective on the road where he sees his WHIP rise to a 1.34 mark with a .273 opponent’s batting average in eighteen starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP with a .253 opponent’s batting average when pitching at home. The Over is 3-1-2 in Houston’s last 6 road games with Keuchel on the hill. He faces an Indians team that has seen the Over go 12-3-4 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be playing with a sense of desperation with their season on the line. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB American League Divisional Series Playoff Total with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (915) and the Cleveland Indians (916) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Mike Clevinger. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Cowboys v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
16-19 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas generated 414 yards of offense last week against the Lions — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But now the Cowboys go back on the road where they are scoring just 10.5 PPG along with averaging only 267.5 total YPG. Dallas has played 21 of their last 27 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Cowboys defense surrendered 382 total yards last week — but they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while the underachieving Houston defense gave up 478 yards last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas lacks down-the-field targets at wide receiver while the Texans have one of the least capable offensive lines in the league. With these two offenses, both burdened by significant flaws, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-18 |
Dodgers v. Braves OVER 7.5 |
Top |
5-6 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (94-71) took a 2-0 lead in this series on Friday with their 3-0 victory over the Braves in the second game of this NLDS.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dodgers have surrendered a run so far in this series — but that will likely change with this game being played back in Atlanta. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 12 games after not shutting out their last opponent — and they have played 4 straight Overs after shutting out their opponents in two straight games. The Dodgers have only given up two combined runs in their last four games — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than two runs in four straight games. They give the ball to Buehler who is 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The right-hander has not been as effective when on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 3.45 mark along with a 1.12 WHIP. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with Buehler pitching with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. He faces a Braves team that has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (90-74) has played 24 of their last 35 home games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than one run. The Braves have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being shutout in two straight games. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an off-day. They return home for the first time since September 23rd — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total after being on the road for at least seven days. The Braves have played 6 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 18 games in the playoffs, Atlanta has seen 13 of these contests finish Over the Total. They counter with Newcomb who is 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The left-hander has struggled at home where his ERA rises to a 5.12 mark with a 1.44 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with Newcomb facing a team with a winning record. It is not likely he will get bailed out by the Atlanta bullpen as they have a 4.24 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in their last seven games. The Dodgers are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over the last seven games with a .293 batting average along with a .367 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .904 over that span. LA has played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The Under might be tempting after the Braves failed to score in these first two games but expect this to be the highest-scoring game in this series. 25* MLB National League Divisional Series Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (957) and the Atlanta Braves (958) listing both starting pitchers Walker Buehler and Sean Newcomb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-18 |
Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 59 |
Top |
21-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (365) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (366). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (3-1) enters this game coming off a 49-29 win over Toledo last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Nevada (3-2) looks to build off their 28-25 upset win at the Air Force as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have seen the Under go 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs generated 554 yards of offense in that victory over the Rockets — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Fresno State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs are scoring 45.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just a 26.0 PPG scoring average along with 359.5 total YPG in their two games on the road this year. This will be the third game on the road over their last four games for this Fresno State team — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total away from home. The Bulldogs play outstanding defense as they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG — and that latter number drops to just 288.5 total YPG when on the road. Additionally, Fresno State has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Nevada has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. Now this team returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Wolf Pack have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Nevada held the Falcons to just 250 yards of offense in that win — and they limited them to only 3.57 Yards-Per-Play. The Wolfpack have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the game has finished Under the Total 9 times for Nevada.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game than expected between these two Mountain West Conference rivals. 25* CFB ESPN-U Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Fresno State Bulldogs (365) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-6 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 8:37 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (90-72) enters the postseason having lost four of their last five games after their 3-1 loss in Philadelphia on Sunday. Los Angeles (92-71) has won four straight games after they won their 163rd game tie-breaker on Monday with their 5-2 win over Colorado.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has played 19 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs in their last game. The Braves have only scored one run in their last two games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than one run in two straight games. But Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in their last eight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than four runs in at least four straight games. Additionally, the Braves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 7 — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Foltynewicz who is 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in thirty-one starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 2.48 mark. Atlanta has played 3 straight road games Under the Total with Foltynewicz pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. They face a Dodgers team that they defeated back in Atlanta by a 4-1 score as a money-line underdog in their last meeting back on July 29th. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a road favorite. The Under is 11-5-1 in the Dodgers’ last 17 games after an off-day. The Under is also 17-5-1 in LA’s last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 playoff games at home. They counter with Ryu who is 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in fifteen starts this season. After coming back from an injury this summer, the left-hander sported a 1.88 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .156. In his nine starts at home, Ryu has a nearly unhittable 1.15 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .212. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with Ryu facing a team with a winning record. He faces this slumping Braves lineup that is scoring only 3.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .205 batting average along with a .260 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .548 during the span. Atlanta has played 4 straight road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: I suspect Atlanta will struggle to score in their first postseason game with their new generation of players. And don’t underestimate the impact of the sun setting in LA which notoriously places shadows on the field for the first-half of these late afternoon west coast games. 25* MLB Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (903) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (904) listing both starting pitchers Mike Foltynewicz and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Colts v. Patriots UNDER 52 |
Top |
24-38 |
Loss |
-108 |
24 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots got back to their winning ways by running the football — they ran the ball 40 times of 175 yards led by their rookie running back Sony Michel who contributed 112 yards on 25 carries. This helped New England generate 449 yards of offense overall while having them control the clock for 36:22 minutes of that game. The Patriots have 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. This effort should renew some confidence for this team — but after failing to meet point spread expectations, they should appreciate that they still have little margin for error. Running the football to burn time off the clock protects the defense which has been a key part of the Patriots’ success over the years. They are once-again playing “bend but don’t break” defense as they are allowing only 21.0 PPG despite surrendering 348.0 total YPG. Moving forward, New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Patriots have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tom Brady may not have the services of tight end Rob Gronkowski who is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. While Julian Edelman returns from his four-game suspension, a limited Gronkowski leaves this Pats’ offense without credible down-the-field threats (with the adjective “credible” serving to exclude the recently acquired Josh Gordon). New England has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of October — and in their last 5 appearances for Thursday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous two games. The Colts have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Andrew Luck offered a rebuttal to those critics that were wondering “what was wrong” with him (after head coach Frank Reich chose to have backup Jacoby Brissett throw a long Hail Mary pass the previous week) by completing 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes against the Texans defense. But Luck’s weapons are injured with his favorite tight end Jack Doyle out for this game with a hip injury and his top wide receiving threat in T.Y. Hilton doubtful with a hamstring. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts defense surrendered a whopping 466 yards to Houston in that overtime loss — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy does get running back Robert Turbin back on offense which should help their ground game along with the advance of their goal of burning time off the clock to keep Brady off the field. Lastly, Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road.
FINAL TAKE: With the Total set past the 50-point threshold as the oddsmakers adjust for the spike in passing numbers which has led to an increase in scoring, expect this game to finish below that number. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-18 |
Georgia State v. Troy UNDER 55 |
Top |
20-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia State Panthers (305) and the Troy Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (2-3) snapped their three-game losing streak last week with their 46-14 win over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Troy (4-1) has won four in a row after their 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Redhawks to just 262 yards of offense. Georgia State held the ball for 38:12 minutes in the game which will they will likely try to use as a blueprint for this game. The Panthers score only 14.5 PPG on the road so far this season while averaging just 330.5 total YPG. Georgia State has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least 20 points. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total. And while Georgia State generated 487 yards of offense last week, they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October. Troy has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. They stay at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 340.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 14.5 to 21 points. The Trojans rushed for 282 yards in that win over the Chanticleers last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, Troy has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 to 56 point range. The Trojans have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 20 games in Sun Belt Conference play, the Under is 14-5-1.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lower scoring game in this conference showdown. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN-U Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia State Panthers (305) and the Troy Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-18 |
A's v. Yankees OVER 8 |
Top |
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:08 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (do not list the starting pitchers — I will explain below). THE SITUATION: Oakland (97-65) begins the postseason coming off a 5-4 loss in Los Angeles to the Angels on Sunday. New York (100-62) looks to rebound from a 10-2 loss in Boston on Sunday to close out their regular season. It will all be on the line for both teams in this single-elimination showdown of the American League Wildcard Playoffs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The A’s have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games — and the Over is 6-2-1 in Oakland’s last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The A’s have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when playing in the playoffs. Manager Bob Melvin has decided to rely on his bullpen for this single elimination with Liam Hendriks pitching the opening inning. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA in his eight starts in these bullpen games this season — but that spans only 8 2/3 innings of work. Don’t let those nice numbers derived from a staggeringly low sample size fool you: Melvin is resorting to his bullpen because he lacks credible options for a traditional starting pitcher. Injuries have devastated what was never an above average group even at full strength. This is a strategy of last resort. Hendriks has a road ERA of 7.45 with a 1.86 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .325 — albeit in just 9 2/3 innings of work. The sample size for Hendriks’ road appearances this season should also be taken with a grain of a salt — but it is not an encouraging set of circumstances that the Oakland’s A’s first inning pitcher has yet to pitch even 10 innings in a hostile environment this season. Hendriks has pitched 178 2/3 innings on the road in his career; he has an ugly 6.45 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .336 over that span. Granted, the A’s have a good bullpen — but Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total this season with Hendriks making the start where he does not complete at least 4 innings of work. And while Melvin has the benefit of using his starting pitchers in pen as well, his choices are not particularly attractive which is why he is in this predicament, to begin with (and he even left starter Mike Fiers off the roster). The A’s bullpen has pitched a combined 20 innings over their last three games — and they have played 29 of their last 48 games Over the Total when their bullpen has logged-in at least 13 innings over their last three starts. These pitchers will be facing a Yankees team that is scoring 7.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .278 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .882. New York returns home to Yankee Stadium for the first time since September 23rd — and they have seen the Over go 12-4-1 in their last 17 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Bronx Bombers have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Severino who is 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Severino has struggled since the All-Star Break as he has been saddled with a 5.57 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .341 in twelve starts. A loss of some of the bite on his fastball has made the effectiveness of his cutter decline. The right-hander has been better as of late by not allowing more than two earned runs in three straight starts. But the Yankees have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total with Severino pitching after not allowing more than two earned runs in two straight starts. New York has also played 6 straight home games Over the Total with Severino on the hill. Remember that Severino got shelled for three runs in just 1/2 innings of work when he started at home against the Twins in last year’s AL Wildcard Playoff game. He is facing a feisty A’s team that is scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games while also scoring 5.5 Runs-Per-Game on the road. Furthermore, Oakland has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and the Over is 44-19-4 in their last 67 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
FINAL TAKE: While the first three postseason games have been low-scoring contests, expect this contest to be the highest-scoring playoff game we have witnessed so far in this nascent postseason. Do not list Hendricks nor Severino as the necessary starting pitchers as a condition for your wager either. While I identified some negative data on Liam Hendriks, we are not relying on his 1 inning of work as a primary argument for this play. Even if there is only a small chance that the A’s make a change to another starting pitcher for this game, Hendriks’ absence does not change our Over play. 25* MLB Playoff Wildcard Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oakland A’s (939) and the New York Yankees (940) (not listing the starting pitchers as a condition for this wager). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-50s for this game given the dynamic play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is leading an offense that is scoring 39.3 PPG. He led the Chiefs to score 42 points in their previous game in Pittsburgh — but Kansas City has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while the Chiefs have played all three of their games Over the Total this year, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. KC has generated 449 and 384 yards in each of their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs only rushed the ball for 77 yards last week — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 178 rushing yards to the 49ers — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The game plan for Vance Joseph’s team will likely be to run the football to shorten the game and limit the number of offensive possessions that Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense will have in this game. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have combined to rush for 350 yards — and they join Devontae Booker to form a potent committee of running backs to take the pressure off their QB Case Keenum. But this Broncos offense has scored only 34 combined points over their last two games. Denver did limit the Ravens to rush for only 77 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: As last night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdown demonstrated, it does not take much for what looks like an offensive shootout to slow down enough to finish below a combined points total in the 50s. Denver has to run the football to win the Time of Possession battle — and their zeal to accomplish that task should ensure this game finishing below the Total. 25* NFL AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-01-18 |
Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7 |
Top |
2-5 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 4:09 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. THE SITUATION: These two teams need a 163rd game to determine the winner of the National League West. Colorado (91-71) has won nine of their last ten games after they ripped Washington by a 12-0 score yesterday. Los Angeles (91-71) has won six of their last eight contests with their 15-0 victory in San Francisco yesterday. The loser of this game goes on the road in the National League Wildcard game tomorrow while the winner will host Atlanta in a National League Divisional Series.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles is swinging hot bats right now — over their last seven games, they are scoring 7.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .327 batting average along with a .397 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .939 over that span. The Dodgers have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after not allowing more than one run against an NL West rival in their last game — and the Over is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after not allowing more that two runs in their last contest. The Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a victory — and Los Angeles has played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a victory by at least four runs. And in their last 19 games after scoring at least nine runs, the Dodgers have played 14 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Buehler who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in twenty-three starts. The rookie has been outstanding as of late with a 1.70 ERA over his last eleven starts which helps explain why this Total is set at a low 7 — but Buehler has not been nearly as effective during day games. While Buehler has a 2.13 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .187 in seventeen starts at night, those numbers rise to a 4.91 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 in his six appearances in day games. He faces a hot-hitting Rockies team that is scoring 8.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .322 batting average along with a .390 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of 1.043 in those games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 games in the playoffs. They counter with Marquez who is 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP in thirty-two starts. Like Buehler, the right-hander has not been as effective during games where he has a 5.16 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .266 in eleven day starts as compared to his 3.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .228 during night games. Colorado has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with Marquez pitching as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. The Dodgers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Rockies’ bullpen might be a weak-link for them as they have a rough 4.63 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP this season.
FINAL TAKE: While both teams will move to another playoff game after this one, there is still plenty at stake since the winner will have a much more favorable positioning in the playoffs moving forward. Both these starting pitchers may have been pitching great down the stretch but both will also be making their playoff debuts with their starts — so nerves may be an issue for at least one of them. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies (953) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (954) listing both starting pitchers German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-18 |
Burnley v. Cardiff City UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). THE SITUATION: Burnley (1-1-4) enters this match coming off a 4-0 win over Bournemouth last Saturday in EPL action. Cardiff (0-2-4) looks to rebound from a 5-0 loss to Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley’s four goals last week was quite a surprise when considering they had scored only three goals in their first five matches in the English Premier League. The Clarets’ seized a two-goal lead in the first-half and then saw their forward Ashley Barnes score twice in the final ten minutes of that match against an aggressive and desperate Bournemouth side who have been playing higher scoring matches all season. Burnley finished 7th in the EPL last season due mostly to strong defensive play under manager Sean Dyche. The Cherries were 6th in the EPL by allowing only 39 goals. They have surrendered ten goals so far this season but their early results need to be taken with a grain of salt when considering that they also played the first few weeks of the season while also focused on Europa League matches. That victory over Bournemouth was their first EPL match since getting eliminated from that tournament. They did give up 19 shots to the Cherries but most of those shots were not high-percentage — so the numbers look worse than how it played out. Burnley also got outstanding goalkeeping from Joe Hart in that contest. Moving forward, the Clarets should get back to playing outstanding defense in EPL action. But this is also a side that has scored only two goals in their three matches on the road. Last year, Burnley scored just 36 goals which was 15th in the EPL. Cardiff has surrendered at least three goals in each of their last three matches in the EPL — but those were each against top-six opponents in Arsenal, Chelsea and the reigning champions in Man City last week. They have seen only two combined goals scored in their three matches against non-top-six clubs this season with two of those matches resulting in clean sheets for their defense and keeper Neil Etheridge. The Bluebirds have only scored two goals in their three home matches while netting just three goals overall in their six EPL contests. This is a side that is willing to play ugly to grind out points — they do not want to get into a fast, aggressive contest. Manager Neil Warnock does get an important piece on defense back in Sol Bamba who has been dealing with a separated shoulder. His return to the pitch should help the play of captain Sean Morrison who forms a great back defensive pairing with Bamba when Cardiff is playing at their best.
FINAL TAKE: Cardiff will be desperate to earn their first victory of the season in a campaign where they are already in significant danger of being one of three relegated sides. They cannot expect to score more than one goal in this match — and that will dictate their tactics to be cautious and defensive. Burnley is happy to engage in that style — their four goals last week were an aberration. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (2500) and Cardiff (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Ohio State v. Penn State OVER 67 |
Top |
27-26 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (4-0) enters this Big Ten showdown coming off a 49-6 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 37.5-point favorite. Penn State (4-0) comes off a 63-24 blowout win at Illinois as a 25.5-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nittany Lions generated 591 yards of offense to eventually overwhelm the Fighting Illini in that contest last week. Penn State has then played 8 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions have played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The concern for the Nittany Lions is on the other side of the football as they allowed a weak Illinois offense produce 411 yards of offense. Penn State surrendered 451 yards of offense to begin the season in their narrow win over Appalachian State that was settled in overtime. The Nittany Lions have played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play. Ohio State has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Buckeyes’ defense flexed their muscles in their win over the Green Wave as they held them to only 263 yards. Ohio State has then played 6 straight games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. On offense, sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins completed 20 of his 23 passes for 304 yards with five touchdown passes last week — and the Buckeyes have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games on the road, Ohio State has played 6 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played a shootout last year Expect another high-scoring game between these two teams with dynamic offenses. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (6-0-0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League last week with their 3-0 victory over Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (5-1-0) experienced their first blemish to what had been an unbeaten EPL campaign when they traveled to West Ham and left with a 0-0 draw.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This two teams played on Wednesday in the third round of the Carabao Cup which Liverpool hosted at Anfield but Chelsea came away with a 2-1 victory. Not too much should be read into that match with Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp resting his starting four defenders along with stars Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino. Klopp should have a tactical edge in this immediate rematch after getting a look as to how Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri schemed against Liverpool’s high press approach. The Reds’ have been an offensive juggernaut this season as they have scored fourteen goals in their six matches. Salah has scored only three goals so far this season after finding the back of the net 32 times in his breakout campaign last year. But the deeper metrics for Salah are quite encouraging so the Egyptian superstar may be on the verge of a breakout game. Salah will certainly be motivated to be playing against his former team. Liverpool has also scored eight of their goals on the road — so playing this match at Stamford Bridge should not slow down the Reds’ powerful offensive attack. The Liverpool defense has played well this season — but they have only played one top-six opponent this year in Tottenham which resulted in a 2-1 victory for the Reds playing on the road. Liverpool’s defense was at times too leaky last season — and they perhaps need an upgrade with their central defenders that Chelsea will be able to exploit. The Blues are led by Eden Hazard who is perhaps playing the best soccer in the EPL right now. He scored the winning goal on Wednesday while displaying elite level talent that shined against the Reds’ defenders. Chelsea has scored 14 times this season — and they had found the back of the net at least twice in their first five matches before failing to score last week at West Ham. But now the Blues return back home where they have scored nine times while also allowing three goals in their three matches for average combined goals mark of 4.0. Sarri’s approach with Napoli where he previously served as manager was to prioritize attacking on offense. Sarri has pushed Chelsea’s star midfielder N’Golo Kante higher up the pitch to embrace more of an offensive role as compared to the holding position he has taken over the last few seasons. But the risk of these tactics is that they are vulnerable to pressing sides who can get scoring opportunities from counter-attacks — and this is precisely Clop’s style with Liverpool.
FINAL TAKE: Both sides should score at least once in this match — at least a 2-1 result is likely. This game has the makings of an exciting, high-scoring contest. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-18 |
Virginia v. NC State UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
21-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 12:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Cavaliers (143) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (144). THE SITUATION: Virginia (3-1) enters this game coming off a dominant 27-3 victory over Louisville last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. NC State (4-0) remained undefeated last season with a 37-20 victory at Marshall as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers flexed their muscles on defense against the Cardinals as they held them to just 214 yards of offense. This strong defensive effort should carry over to this game as Virginia has played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, Virginia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 275 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Louisville by +187 net yards — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Overall, Bronco Mendenhall’s team is limiting their opponents to just 16.7 PPG along with only 297.5 total YPG. But generating points could be an issue for this Virginia team that is playing just their second true road game this year. In their first true road game at Indiana, the Cavaliers managed only 294 yards which resulted in just 16 points. Virginia has played 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. NC State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Dave Doeren’s team is also playing outstanding defense as they are rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 13.3 PPG. The Wolfpack have surrendered only four touchdowns this season. On offense, NC State generated 502 yards last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Wolfpack have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against fellow ACC opponents — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. NC State returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: In the last 7 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. With both these teams playing very good on the defensive side of the football, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Cavaliers (143) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-18 |
Vikings v. Rams UNDER 50 |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-126 |
29 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a 27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams defense has been outstanding this season by allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 296.0 total YPG. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries in their secondary with cornerback Aqib Talib out with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf issue. But with Aaron Donald and now Ndamukong Suh leading an outstanding defensive line, the Rams defense is not giving opposing quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw the ball down field. The Rams were 4th in the NFL with 48 sacks last season without Suh — the former Dolphins’ defensive tackle along with Donald accounted for a whopping 68.5 pressures on the quarterback last year. Los Angeles did allow 7.12 Yards-Per-Play to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Rams outgained the Chargers by +165 net yards after dominating Arizona the previous week by outgaining them by +295 net yards. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net YPG. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota (1-1-1) has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Vikings only ran the ball six times in that game for 14 yards with their star running back Dalvin Cook dealing with a hamstring injury that he leaves him questionable for this game being played on a short week. Minnesota is getting solid production from their new quarterback Kirk Cousins who completed 40 of 55 passes for 296 yards in that loss — but Mike Zimmer has to be displeased with his run-to-pass ratio as a defensive-minded head coach. Look for the Vikings to attempt to win this game on the line-of-scrimmage — which will burn time off the clock — as they did last year when the dominated these Rams by a 24-7 score where they only allowed 254 yards of offense. Minnesota is holding their opponents to only 323.0 total YPG - but this number could get even better moving forward when considering that the Vikings led the NFL by holding their opponents to only 275.9 total YPG last year. Zimmer’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game when the Vikings passed for at least 250 yards. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the underdog. And in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Vikings have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends).
FINAL TAKE: This game might be a preview of a future showdown between these two teams in the NFC Playoffs (perhaps the NFC Championship Game). On a short week, I think both head coaches will try to impose their will while sending a message about who is the tougher team by winning a game fought in the trench warfare. That style of play should help this game finish lower-scoring than expected. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-24-18 |
Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are heavily dependent on Big Ben Roethlisberger and their passing game with running back Le’Veon Bell still holding out. More passing generally means more stoppage of play which leads to more plays and possessions on offense with more scoring opportunities for both teams. The opposite dynamic was in play last night with Detroit committed to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field. Pittsburgh will likely prepare to play a high-scoring game tonight. The Steelers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Roethlisberger tossed 60 passes last week — completing 39 of them for 452 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that totaled 475 yards overall. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But the Pittsburgh defense surrendered 449 yards to the Chiefs in that loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh really misses their injured linebacker Ryan Shazier. They have allowed 29.0 PPG since his scary neck injury last year after holding their previous seven opponents to only 17.7 PPG in Shazier’s last seven games with the team. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career as he has passed for more than 400 yards while tossing four TD passes in each of his first two games. With a questionable running game and two rookie cornerbacks starting in the secondary given injuries to incumbent starters Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes, the Buccaneers formula for success will likely remain to be relying on Fitzpatrick’s arm. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But defense remains a vulnerability of this team after allowing the Eagles to accumulate 412 yards last week — and they have played 11 go their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Like last night’s New England-Detroit contest also had a high Total above the 50-point threshold. Handicapping Over/Unders requires an appreciation for the expected tempo of the game in question. While I expected the Lions to fully commit to running the football last night which serves to decrease the number of offensive plays and possessions for both teams, the Steelers and Buccaneers are likely to attempt plenty of passes tonight which has the opposite effect. Expect a shootout between these two teams in a league that is seeing higher scores. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Patriots v. Lions UNDER 55 |
Top |
10-26 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.
REASON TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the storylines of this game is that rookie head coach Matt Patricia will be facing his former team in the Patriots that he previously served as their defensive coordinator. Patricia certainly knows the New England way as well as Tom Brady and the Patriots’ tendencies — and that will help in scheming again his former team. But Patricia also came to the Lions with a mandate to make this team more physical on both sides of the football — and that starts with running the football. So far in Detroit’s first two games, this mission has been lost. The Lions have only rushed the ball 33 times in two games this season with quarterback Matthew Stafford attempting 52 and 53 passes in their first two games. Well, I think between hell and high water, Patricia is going to commit to his team running the football tonight against his old team — both to finally embrace the blueprint both he and former Patriot brain trust member and now Detroit general manager Bob Quinn both want for this team. Running the football also has the benefit of keeping Brady off the field while also helping his defense by keeping them rested. As it is, the Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing two games where they attempted at least 40 passes. All this passing helped the Lions give up 78 points in their first two games — but they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. Furthermore, while Detroit has surrendered 169 and 190 rushing yards in their first two games, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. The Lions did generate 427 yards last week against the 49ers — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total adder gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. New England is not clicking on all cylinders on offense after managing only 302 yards last week against the Jaguars. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. New England did allow 480 yards last week in that loss but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Patriots have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total opened in the 50 range which was already pretty high — but it has since been bet up to the 55 range in many locations. I consider those additional 5 or so points just added value to a strong Under situation given the zeal the Lions should (finally) show in running the darn football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-23-18 |
Everton v. Arsenal OVER 3.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). THE SITUATION: Everton (1-3-1) enters this match looking to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss to West Ham last Sunday. Arsenal (3-0-2) looks to build off a 2-1 win at Newcastle last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has gotten their offense cranked up as they have scored ten goals over their last four matches. First-year manager Unai Emery has found a good combination by inserting Alexandre LaCazette into the starting lineup at forward to form a potent combination with Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang. This pairing has come at the expense of another offensive midfielder in Henrikh Mkhitaryan who has lost playing time since LaCazette entered the starting XI. Emery has a well-defined system — as compared to their previous manager Arsene Wenger — that emphasizes high pressing that looks to trigger continuous pressure against their opposition. But the drawback to this approach is that this can leave their back line vulnerable to counter-attacks — and the Gunners have allowed nine goals already this season. The biggest weakness for this team is an aging defense that lacks a quality central defender — and they are banged up right now with Sean Kolasinac and Laurent Koscielny out with injuries. Emery’s hope is that he can coach up his back four while outscoring their opponents before help can be found in the next transfer window. He did inherit a squad that was tied for third in goals scored in last year’s English Premier League season. Arsenal comes off a high-scoring match midweek as well as they outscored Vorslka in Europa League play on Thursday by a 4-2 score. Everton is also banged up with their defensive back line with Yerry Mina, Michael Keane and Seamus Coleman all dealing with injuries. The Toffees defense was exposed last week after surrendering three goals to a West Ham side that entered that match with only two goals in their first four games. But Everton will get a shot in the arm with the return to the pitch of their dynamic midfielder in Richarlison who missed their last three matches from a red card suspension. The transfer from Watford made an immediate impact with his new team by scoring three times in his first two matches before getting issued that red card. His presence on the pitch makes fellow midfielder Theo Walcott more dangerous as well as forward Cenk Tosun up top. Both of Everton’s first two matches on the road resulted in 2-2 draws — so this is a group that is getting used to playing high-scoring matches. In their three matches with Richarlison starting on the pitch, the Toffees scored two goals in each contest.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring affair. Neither of these teams has recorded a clean sheet this season. And in their two English Premier League matches last year, the games saw six and seven combined goals scored both times with Arsenal finding the back of the net five times in both contests. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Everton (2500) and Arsenal (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-18 |
South Alabama v. Memphis OVER 65.5 |
Top |
35-52 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (389) and the Memphis Tigers (390). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 41-31 win over Texas State as a 10-point favorite. Memphis (2-1) enters this game coming off their 59-22 win over Georgia State as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: South Alabama will be without their senior quarterback Cole Garvin who has been suspended after getting arrested for public intoxication last week. While that may have compelled many bettors to take the Under, the Jaguars’ offense will be just fine under the leadership of another senior in Evan Orth. The former UAB quarterback transferred to the Jaguars when the Blazers abandoned their football team for a few years but was never able to seize the starting job. But he seems to be growing into the position after leading South Alabama to their win over Texas State last week as he completed 24 of 33 passes for 266 yards with two touchdown passed while adding another 21 yards with his legs. Orth is completing 65.6% of his passes while averaging 9.5 Yards-Per-Carry when he tucks the ball to run with it this season. The Jaguars are averaging 26.7 PPG this year which is almost a touchdown more than what they scored last year. This team has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight up win. Furthermore, South Alabama forced three turnovers against the Bobcats — and they have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. South Alabama has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. The Jaguars are allowing their opponents to score 38.7 PPG along with 476.3 total YPG — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Memphis team that is scoring 48.7 PPG along with generating 603.0 YPG so far this season. The Tigers have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while Memphis produced 679 yards of offense last week against the Panthers, they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 29 games at home, the Tigers have played 21 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis is huge favorites laying more than 30 points in this game. While the Tigers are going to score their share of points (they may approach the Over by themselves), South Alabama should score their share of points as well. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (389) and the Memphis Tigers (390). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-21-18 |
Washington State v. USC OVER 50.5 |
Top |
36-39 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (309) and the USC Trojans (310). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) won their third straight game last Saturday with their 59-24 win over Eastern Washington as a 20-point favorite. USC (1-2) has lost two straight games after they lost at Texas last Saturday night by a 37-14 score as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cougars offense under head coach Mike Leach has not missed a beat despite moving on from their graduated quarterback from last year in Luke Falk. Graduate transfer Gardner Minshew came in from East Carolina and has stepped in to continue to run the Washington State Air Raid offense at a high level. He completed 45 of 57 passes for 470 yards last week with two touchdowns. The Cougars are scoring 43.7 PPG while averaging 501.0 total YPG so far this season. Washington State should keep their momentum going on offense as they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Washington State has raced out to 18 and 24 point leads in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after holding at least two touchdown leads at halftime in each of their last two games. The Cougars defense has also been stout so far this year as they have held their three opponents to just 229 total YPG — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 total YPG in their last three contests. The Washington State defense was 16th in the nation last year by allowing only 323.3 total YPG — but regression is likely for this team after their outstanding defensive coordinator Alex Grinch left to join the Ohio State defensive staff in the offseason. This defense also lost their elite defensive end in Hercules Mata’afa who took his pass rushing talents to the NFL. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Cougars go back on the road to place their most potent offense so far on their schedule. Washington State has played 5 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog of fewer than 7 points. USC lost their second game in a row with that loss at Texas — but now they return home for the first time in three weeks where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total while also seeing the Over go 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This has been a tough early gauntlet for their true freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels but the former 5-star recruit is showing glimpses of his vast potential. After a tough assignment in Palo Alto against Stanford, Daniels completed 30 of 48 passes for 322 yards in Austin last week against a talented Longhorns defense. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Furthermore, while USC has only scored 17 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in each of their last two games while also playing 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Lastly, the Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow Pac-12 opponents.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their last two games. Expect a shootout in Los Angeles tonight between these two teams on national television. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (309) and the USC Trojans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-18 |
Jets v. Browns UNDER 41 |
Top |
17-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets fell behind early in their game with the Dolphins as they went into halftime with a 20-0 deficit. Quarterback Sam Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards — but he also tossed two interceptions. This is a very tough challenge for the rookie since not only is this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks but this is his third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite against an AFC East rival. New York has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Jets go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Cleveland has played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total after a loss by less than 6 points. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Darnold did experience trouble with pressure last week against the Dolphins defensive line — so this is a significant area of concern. But the Browns are struggling on the offensive side of the football where their QB Tyrod Taylor has been sacked 10 times. Cleveland has only scored 6 first-half points in their first two games this season which is not a good sign as to how they will start in this game when playing on a short week. The Browns have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half in each of their last two games. They will be facing an underrated Jets’ defense that has held their first two opponents to just 3.38 Yards-Per-Carry. Moving forward, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when favored by 3 points or less. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: While the Total is set around the 40 point range, expect points to be hard to come by from both these teams with strong defenses but limited offenses. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-18 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Southampton OVER 2 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). THE SITUATION: Brighton (1-1-2) returns to English Premier League action today following the international break which they entered with a 2-2 draw with Fulham on September 1st. Southampton has won two straight matches in all events after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road on the first Saturday of the month by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Glenn Murray scored twice in that win over Fulham — he has found the back of the net now three times in his last four EPL matches. Murray also loves to face his southern rivals in Southampton against which he has scored four games in his last five EPL matches against them. The 34-year old will see the addition up top of Florin Andone who will be playing his first match with the team since being acquired in the summer transfer window. Murray and company will need to play aggressively in this game to keep the Gulls competitive given their poor play on the defensive end of the pitch. Brighton has allowed 60 shots in EPL play while also allowing the 4th most shots in the league from inside the box. Furthermore, the Seagulls have allowed 14 goals in their last six EPL matches going back to last season which results in a 2.3 Goals-Allowed-Average. Brighton has zero clean sheets this season so it is highly likely that Southampton will score at least once in this match. Danny Ings has found his form with the team as he scored in their match at Crystal Palace — he has two goals in his last three matches in EPL play. He will be joined up top with Charlie Austin whose seven goals in his career against Brighton represents his best scoring production against all the teams from the English Premier League. The Saints have scored only four goals this year but they are due to get a visit from the Regression Gods as they have attempted a healthy 64 shots while creating plenty of scoring chances. In their last six matches in all events, Southampton has scored 11 goals for an improving 1.72 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 1-1 draws in their two EPL matches last year. That should be the minimum expectation here — but I am expecting for at least Southampton to score a second time given their activity they are generating in front of the net against this porous Brighton defense. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (2500) and Southampton (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-18 |
Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the defense for the Giants loss as they held the Jaguars to just 305 yards of offense. The hope with this football team that new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can find the magic for this defense that triggered them being 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking tied for 3rd in the league in run defense. Injuries took away cornerback Janoris Jenkins along with linebacker B.J. Goodson while the team feels they have upgraded at linebacker with the trade for Alec Ogletree from the Rams. But the problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East foes. It was a similar story for the Cowboys as their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — but they managed only 232 yards of offense with a wide receiver group that lacks a clear number one (or number two) option. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss and a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home field.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played four of their last five games Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-16-18 |
Browns v. Saints OVER 50 |
Top |
18-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-0-1) ensured they will not suffer another season where they lose all their games as they managed a 21-21 tie with the Steelers last Sunday. New Orleans (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 48-40 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay despite being 10-point favorites in that contest.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have a promising young defense but the Steelers generated 472 yards against them even in difficult wind conditions last Sunday. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Browns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the month of September. Cleveland goes on the road now where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when the number is set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home — and they have play 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New Orleans’ surrendered 529 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers’ offense last week. The Saints did keep up by gaining 475 yards in that contest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has played 7 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Saints stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, New Orleans has played all 5 games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Both these defenses look overrated last week compared to their preseason projections. The Saints face a must-win situation pretty much given the dire prospects of starting the year 0-2 at home in Superdome — while Cleveland remains desperate to earn their first win three seasons. This conflicting dynamic should produce a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-18 |
Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 45 |
Top |
23-34 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense. This is an outstanding Ravens’ defense that was 6th in the NFL last year by limiting their opponents to just 18.9 PPG along with three shutouts they also almost added to in that game. Baltimore limited the Bills to just 2.78 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to less than 3.0 YPP. The Ravens controlled the time of possession in that game while looking to win the battle at the line of scrimmage as they held the ball for 35:14 minutes of that game. Baltimore only managed 369 yards of offense for all that possession time — including 252 yards in the air. The Under is then 34-15-2 in the Ravens’ last 51 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bengals have also seen the Under go 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points. The defense did give up 380 yards to the Colts in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Most of those yards were from QB Andrew Luck who returned to NFL action by 305 yards. But the Bengals allowed only 75 rushing yards — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 4 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Bengals have played all 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: It might be tempting to take the Over in this game with both offenses scoring a combined 81 points last week. These two teams also last played in Week 17 which was a scoring fest that the Bengals won by a 31-27 score. But that was the first Over between these two teams in their last five encounters. Look for both coaches to try to out-physical the other by controlling clock and win the battle at the line of scrimmage. 25* NFL AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-18 |
Braves v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. THE SITUATION: Atlanta (81-64) has won four straight games after they won Game Two of their series with the Giants last night by a 4-1 score for the second straight day.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. Atlanta has also seen the Under go 10-4-1 in their last 15 games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They give the ball to Sanchez who is 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he owns a 3.07 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .204 in eleven starts. Sanchez is also better during day games where he sports a 2.16 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .157 in six starts. The Braves have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with Sanchez facing a team with a losing record. He should thrive against this Giants team that is scoring only 3.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .220 batting average along with a .255 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .622 during that span. San Francisco (68-78) has played 4 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Giants have lost nine straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss. Additionally, the Under is 7-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. San Fran has also played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Holland who is 7-8 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in thirty-one starts this year. The left-hander has been a bit better at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP in fourteen starts. The Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home with Holland on the hill. Together, these team trends produce our specific 72-12-3 combined angle for this situation. Holland has also been more effective on day games where he has a 2.54 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average in eleven stats.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams for this afternoon getaway game. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the San Francisco Giants (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Derek Holland. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Bears v. Packers OVER 46 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense stalled without Rodgers last year as they averaged only 20.0 PPG last year while generating a mere 305.7 total YPG with those marks ranking 21st and 26th in the league. With Rodgers back under center, both of those marks should significantly amp up — especially at home. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at Lambeau Field with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Rodgers no longer has Jordy Nelson as a weapon but the veteran has lost a step — he was essentially replaced by a big target in tight end Jimmy Graham who caught 10 TD passes last year. It has been a number of years since Rodgers has had a prolific pass-receiving tight end in his arsenal. But perhaps the biggest upgrade this team has made on offense was the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. The former Miami Dolphins head coach was the offensive coordinator for the Packers from 2007-2011 when Rodgers was enjoying some of his best statistical seasons. Remember that Rodgers has enjoyed an incredible 40-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio over his last sixteen starts — and he loves facing Vic Fangio-coached defenses against which he has an 11-1 TD-to-Interception ratio in his last five games against the Bears with Fangio as their defensive coordinator. Rodgers will battle a Bears’ defense that was a Top-Ten unit last year that has just added linebacker Kahlil Mack into the mix. With Mack just joining the team, it is unclear how many snaps he will play in this game. The Chicago defense is good — but their stats were padded by an offense that was designed to burn time off the clock to keep them off the field. The Bears averaged 29.2 seconds per play which is the second longest in the league. Chicago had no Pro Bowlers on their defense last year. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against familiar conference opponents. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. Trubisky saw only 39 snaps in the preseason. And don’t be surprised if the Bears significantly amp up their pace of play on offense given Helfrich’s background as a Chip Kelly protege at Oregon.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between two teams that will be experiencing big improvements with their respective offenses. Expect this to be a sloppy game which will likely result in triggering more scoring opportunities. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-09-18 |
Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 |
Top |
5-6 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. THE SITUATION: Houston (89-53) has won seven straight games after winning the second game of this series last night by a 5-3 score against the Red Sox.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And while Houston has not allowed more than three runs in eight straight games, they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three runs in at least four straight games. Furthermore, the Astros have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +100 to +150 price range. They give the ball to Keuchel who is 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The left-hander has been more effective on the road where he sees his ERA drop to a 3.27 mark. Houston has played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with Keuchel pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to -125 range. He faces a Red Sox team that is hitting only .249 over their last seven games with an OPS of .709 in those games with both stats far below their .268 batting average and .774 OPS for the season. Boston (97-46) has played 22 of their last 31 home games when playing with revenge from a loss in their last game with their opponents. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have also played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Porcello who is 16-7 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in twenty-nine starts. The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander should be seeing better results given his SIERA and xFIP that both project an ERA of 3.71 and 3.84 moving forward. Porcello has been more effective at home in Fenway Park where he has a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .231 in twelve starts as compared to his 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .246 on the road. Boston has played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with Porcello facing a team with a winning record. He faces an Astros team that has seen the Under go 11-3-2 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Expect playoff intensity for this nationally-televised game — and that should translate into a low-scoring game with two good starting pitchers on the mound. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (977) and the Boston Red Sox (978) listing both starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Rick Porcello. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-08-18 |
Rice v. Hawaii OVER 67.5 |
Top |
29-43 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-1) is already playing their third game of the season after they lost to Houston last week at home by a 45-27 score as a big 25.5-point underdog. Hawai’i (2-0) is also playing their third game of the year after they upset Navy at home last week by a 59-41 score as a 13.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Owls have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played a decisive 45 of their last 67 games Over the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Rice has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Struggles on the defensive side of the football were expected for this team that lost their top-five tacklers from last year’s unit that was 112th in the nation by allowing 35.8 PPG. The Owls are allowing 36.5 PPG this season along with 480.5 total YPG. But first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren may have his answer at quarterback in senior graduate transfer Shawn Stankavage from Vanderbilt who was showed promise last week by completing 20 of 31 passes for 204 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Rice offense to 443 yards of offense which was more 110 more YPG than what they averaged last season. The Owls now go on the road where they have played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Rice has also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games when facing a team outside Conference USA. Hawai’i seems right at home back orchestrating their old Run-and-Shoot offense that their head coach Nick Rolovich used to operate for then head coach (and now Hamilton Tiger-Cats head coach) June Jones. The Rainbow Warriors generated 526 yards last week against the Midshipmen defense — and it is like the old days for this team so far this season as they are scoring 51.0 PPG while generating 569.0 total YPG for their unique scheme. Hawai’i has then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Sophomore QB Cole McDonald is loving executing this offense which gives freedom to both the quarterback and the four wide receivers to improvise their routes based off coverage. McDonald completed 30 of 41 passes last week for 428 yards while throwing six touchdown passes with zero interceptions. But the defense remains a work in progress after losing six of their top nine tacklers from a group that allowed 33.9 PPG while ranking 114th in the FBS by allowing 458.8 total YPG. In their first two games this year, Hawai’i is allowing 37.5 PPG while giving up 532.0 total YPG. Moving forward, the Rainbow Warriors have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. And in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents, Hawai’i has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With this being the third game for both teams, the offenses should be up-to-speed regarding understanding and operating their schemes. Neither of these teams can stop anybody — so this should be a high-scoring game with Hawai’i likely leading the way. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-18 |
Miami-FL v. LSU UNDER 49 |
Top |
17-33 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami returns seven starters from a very good defense that was 28th in the FBS by allowing 21.0 PPG. The Hurricanes lost five key contributors on the defensive line with two of those players leaving early for the NFL — but head coach Mark Richt had nice depth at this position last year and has been recruiting very well. Depth is an issue for the defensive line this season but that that is less of a concern for this opening game. The offense returns seven starters from a group that sputtered down the stretch of the season as they scored 41 combined points in losing their last three games. Injuries certainly played a role with that collapse in production with running back Mark Walton being the biggest loss. But that is the new reality for this team with him leaving early for the NFL — so Richt is counting heavily on a five-star freshman tailback in Lorenzo Lingard. Senior quarterback Malik Rosier completed just 40 of 89 passes for an unforgiving 44.9% completion rate — and he completed just 54% of his passes in a very inconsistent season. The Hurricanes have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when favored — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Richt is likely to play this game cautiously while relying heavily on his defense. His teams have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field laying less than 7 points. His teams have also played a defensive 34 of their last 55 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this included playing three of his last four games Under the Total in that situation. LSU returns five starters and 57% of the tackles from last year’s defense that was 14th in the nation by allowing only 18.9 PPG while also ranking 12th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to just 316.0 total YPG. This should remain a stout group with defensive coordinator still in the fold after he was given a huge four-year $10 million dollar deal which makes him one of the highest paid assistant coaches in the nation. The questions for this program will remain on offense where they ranked just 76th in the nation last year by scoring 27.2 PPG. The team is excited about the prospects of their new starting quarterback in Joe Burrow who is a graduate transfer from Ohio State. The 6’3 senior narrowly lost the Buckeyes’ QB job in the spring before deciding to transfer where he supposedly narrowly beat out sophomore Myles Brennan for this starting job. While Burrow was a highly touted coming out of college, he never got a whiff of possibly starting in Columbus until this spring — and he joined the Tigers with just the August practices to learn the offense. LSU lost Derrius Guice who moved on to the NFL which leaves the biggest hole at this position in my recent memory (going back ten years in my notes). Their leading returning rusher is Nick Brossette who ran the ball 19 times for 96 yards last year. Oy. The idea seems to be for this team that they will become more of a pass-first offense under new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger. Oy — and Miami returns three starters from one of the best secondaries in the nation last year. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in September. LSU has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games outside SEC play. Lastly, Ed Orgeron-coached teams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Expect this to be a lowing scoring game in this high profile showdown between to two programs with high aspirations who have more questions on the offensive side of the football than their typically strong defenses. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-01-18 |
Huddersfield Town v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). THE SITUATION: Huddersfield (0-1-2) earned their first point of the season last Saturday with their 0-0 draw at home against Cardiff. Everton (1-2-0) also earned a point last week with their 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton has scored two goals in each of their first three matches this season which may tempt some bettors to take the Over in this match with them being -1.0 goal favorites. But the metrics indicate that the Toffees have been very fortunate in front of the net with 20% of their shots reaching the back of the net — that is the highest mark in the English Premier League and likely due for regression. Everton will be without their top offensive player in this match in midfielder Richarlison who has scored three of the teams six goals this year. Richarlison earned a red card in that match last week against Cardiff who garnered him a three-game suspension. The Toffees still have Theo Walcott as a scoring option in the middle of the field — but while he has scored twice so far this season he has managed only four shots on net. I think he will struggle without Richarlison on the pitch — Everton blew their 2-0 lead against the Cherries when playing with ten players after his red card. The Toffees are also dealing with injuries on defense with three central defenders likely out for this match. That situation will likely compel manager Marco Silva to have his team play cautiously with the hopes of wearing down an inferior opponent. Everton scored only ten goals at home in Goodison Park in their last ten matches — but they gave up only nine goals in those matches for a low 1.9 combined goals average. Huddersfield is not a threat to score goals in this match. After finishing tied for the bottom in the EPL last year with just 28 goals, the Terriers have scored only once in their three EPL matches this year. They were also held scoreless in their Carabou Cup match on Tuesday this week which resulted in a 2-0 loss at Stoke City. In their scoreless draw with Cardiff last week, Huddersfield managed only five shots with just one on target. Their sixteen shots overall this year is last in the EPL. Their offensive cause is not helped with midfielder Jonathan Hogg suspended after earning a red card last week. Last year, the Terriers failed to score in twenty-one of their thirty-eight matches — and they only managed to score in six of their matches on the road. In their last eight matches on the road in the EPL last season, they scored only four goals — but they allowed only ten goals for a low 1.75 combined Goals-Per-Game average. Manager David Wagner is crafty and will likely have his team play very deep with the hopes of stealing a point in a scoreless draw. The team lacks a quality striker which often compels Wagner to use only forward on the pitch in exchange for more defenders. Huddersfield did have the eighth most clean sheets last year so a 0-0 draw is not out of the realm of the possibilities in his mind.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won both matches between these two clubs last year by 2-0 scores. With the Terriers attack looking to be even less potent this season and the Toffees significantly undermanned, expect another low-scoring contest. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Huddersfield Town (2512) and Everton (2513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. THE SITUATION: Chicago (78-54) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped last night with their 10-3 loss to the Mets yesterday. Atlanta (74-58) looks to rebound from an 8-5 loss to Tampa Bay yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cubs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road. They give the ball to Montgomery who is coming off the disabled list to return to their now six-man rotation. The left-hander has a 4-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 99 1/3 innings of work. He has been more effective on the road where he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .236 in 54 2/3 innings of work both starting and out of the pen. Montgomery did not allow an earned run in his last start where he pitched 6 innings at Kansas City — and the Cubs have played 7 of their last 8 games when Montgomery registered a Quality Start in his last start on the mound. He faces a Braves team that has seen the Under go 16-4-1 in their last 21 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher — and the Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta (74-58) has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also played 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They counter with Foltynewicz who is 10-8 with a 2.67 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in twenty-five starts. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 2.63 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in twelve home starts. The Under is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 home games with Foltynewicz on the hill. He faces a Cubs team that has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. Lastly, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Atlanta.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams that are in the heat of the National League playoff race. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (955) and the Atlanta Braves (956) listing both starting pitchers Mike Montgomery and Mike Foltynewicz. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-30-18 |
Brewers v. Reds OVER 9 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (73-60) outlasted the Reds in the second game of this series by a 13-12 score in 10 innings last night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have now played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total in the month of August — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NL Central opponents. Additionally, the Over is 6-1-1 in Milwaukee’s last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. They give the ball to Miley who is 2-2 with a 2.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in ten starts. The sabermetrics are screaming out for regression for this left-hander as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.97 and 4.56 moving forward this season. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Miley making the start. He faces a Reds team that has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams using a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Cincinnati (57-75) has also seen the Over go 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 20-7-2 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 52 day games, the Reds have played 31 of these games Over the Total. They counter with Reed who is 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 2/3 innings of work since being called up from Triple-A earlier this month. Reed has logged-in 80 innings at the major league level in his career where he has not been as effective at home. The left-hander has a 7.05 ERA with a 1.78 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .358 in 37 innings at home as compared to his 5.44 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Furthermore, Reed has been rocked for a 9.39 ERA with a 2.05 WHIP in 30 2/3 innings during day games as compared to his 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at night. Cincinnati has played 8 straight games Over the Total with Reed pitching as an underdog. He faces a hot-hitting Brewers team that was scoring 5.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games before yesterday along with a .290 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .827. Lastly, Milwaukee has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against left-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: It should be another high-scoring affair between these two teams in this afternoon getaway game at the Great American Ballpark. 25* MLB Getaway Game Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (951) and the Cincinnati Reds (952) listing both starting pitchers Wade Miley and Cody Reed. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (66-67) has won three straight games with their 2-0 shutout win over the Diamondbacks in the opening game of this series last night.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 18-6-3 the Giants’ last 27 games after a victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Bumgarner who is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in fourteen starts. The left-hander has been outstanding once again at home this year where he owns a 1.71 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in seven starts. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games with Bumgarner on the hill — and they have played 7 straight Unders at home with Bumgarner facing the Diamondbacks. He should continue this success tonight when facing this Arizona team (72-58) that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 games after a loss. And while Arizona has lost three of their last four games, they have played 36 of their last 53 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. The Diamondbacks have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They counter with Buchholz who is 7-2 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander has been even more effective on the road where he sports a 1.97 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .205 in eight starts. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with Buchholz on the hill. He has benefited from a fairly easy stretch of opponents — and he will be facing a cold Giants team that is scoring only 3.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .195 batting average along with a .259 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .591 over that span. Lastly, the Under is 22-10-1 in the last 33 meetings between these two teams in San Francisco.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a pitchers’ duel between these two teams facing slumping lineups. 25* MLB National League West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks (959) and the San Francisco Giants (960) listing both starting pitchers Clay Buchholz and Madison Bumgarner. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-27-18 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
105 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (2-0-0) have won their opening two games of the new season with their 3-1 win over Fulham last Saturday. Manchester United (1-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 3-2 upset loss last Sunday at Brighton and Hove Albion.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The pressure is mounting on Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho whose preferred defensive tactics are not matching with the talent he has on this Red Devils roster. Man United managed only nine shots despite controlling the possession for 66.6% of this match — and yet they allowed two goals to a Brighton team that was 17th in the entire EPL in goals scored last year. David de Gea was perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world last year but he has been off his game since the World Cup where he was part of Spain’s disappointment. The Red Devils have allowed four goals this season — so while it is tempting to think that Mourinho will want to tighten things up even more after that embarrassing loss, his team’s defensive form suggests that is not a winning strategy. Mourinho saw implosions in his third year as the manager for both Chelsea and Real Madrid so his seat is red hot right now. The pressure is on Man United offensive players to register goals in this important contest with a good Spurs side. The Red Devils are 5th in goals scored last year with 68 — and 41 of those goals were scored at home at Old Trafford for a 2.16 Goals-Per-Game average. In their last five home matches against one of the Top Six teams in the EPL, Man United has scored ten goals. But the problem for Mourinho is that his team has also surrendered seven goals in those last five home contests hosting a Top Six side. The Red Devils produced only one clean sheet at home all of last season against a Top Six team — so it is likely that the Spurs will score in this contest. Tottenham has scored five times in their first two matches with Harry Kane breaking his EPL August cold-streak by finally scoring in the opening month of the season last week in the 77th minute against Fulham. Kane enjoyed a great run with England in the World Cup and he looks to remain in top form now. The Spurs have scored 1.8 Goals in their last ten EPL games on the road while allowing 1.1 Goals-Per-Game against their home hosts. More importantly, they have scored six goals in their last three road matches against a Top Six team in EPL action while allowing those Top Six opponents to score seven times. Tottenham has also allowed nine goals in their last four road contests in the EPL against a Top Six opponent.
FINAL TAKE: The urgency to win this match will likely produce a 2-1 result (at least). The Spurs should score at least once on the road — and Manchester United tends to break out of Mourinho’s organizational straight-jacket when the goings get rough. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham Hotspur (2527) and Manchester United (2528). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-26-18 |
Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5 |
Top |
27-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). THE SITUATION: Arizona (2-0) remained undefeated so far this preseason with their 20-15 upset win in New Orleans last Saturday as a 6-point underdog. Dallas (0-2) looks to rebound from their 21-13 upset loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys are missing key pieces on their offensive line with right guard Zack Martin out with an injury and now their All-Pro center Travis Frederick has been diagnosed with the Guillain-Barre autoimmune syndrome that threatens his future playing career. Given this state of affairs, head coach Jason Garrett is not taking any chances with Ezekiel Elliott as the running back will not play in this game — and I do not expect Dak Prescott to play much either to ensure he is not exposed to an injury. This leaves the Dallas offense relying on a depleted offensive line and their less than inspiring backup quarterbacks in rookie Mike White and second-year pro Cooper Rush. The Cowboys are encouraged with the play of their youngsters on defense after they held the Bengals to just 263 yards of offense last week. Dallas has played 12 of their last 16 home preseason games Under the Total after a preseason loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset preseason loss at home. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 preseason games Under the Total after losing their last two preseason games. Arizona enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin last week in their win upset win over the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last preseason game. The Cardinals also won the turnover battle in their opening preseason game by forcing another four turnovers which resulted in a +3 net turnover mark for that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle in their previous two preseason games. Quarterback Sam Bradford looked good by completing all 6 of his passes for 61 yards — but while he will start in this third preseason game, head coach Steve Wilks has intimated that he will not play his likely starting quarterback very long in this contest. Rookie QB Josh Rosen may get an extended look in this contest but despite some positive reviews for looking steady under center, he is only completing 55.2% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Cardinals do not have much a rushing attack after David Johnson who they are hoping can return from his season-ending injury last year. They only rushed for 65 yards last week after managing just 56 rushing yards in their opening preseason game — and the Saints outrushed them by 118 net yards. Arizona has played 8 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after being outrushed in their last preseason game by at least 75 yards — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 preseason games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 rushing yards in their last two preseason games. Lastly, in their last 5 preseason games on the road, the Cardinals have played 4 of these preseason games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: With both of these coaches not treating this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” opportunity for the starters, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFLx Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (281) and the Dallas Cowboys (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 45 |
Top |
29-7 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) closed out last season by winning their second straight bowl game when they defeated Central Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 37-14 score. New Mexico State (0-0) also ended their season on a high-note when they upset Utah State in the Arizona Bowl by a 26-20 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Wyoming will be learning to live life without Josh Allen declared early for the NFL draft who was then drafted in the 1st round by Buffalo. But even with that blue-chipper under center, the Cowboys only scored 23.5 PPG while averaging a mere 286.0 total YPG which ranked 104th and 125th in the FBS. Struggles with their offensive line made things difficult for Allen under center — and they only averaged 3.17 Yards-Per-Carry which was 6th worst in the nation. It is difficult to imagine this offensive unit to be much better out of the blocks without Allen. Head coach Craig Bohl has named redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal as the starting quarterback over an experienced senior in Nick Smith — but this will be his first collegiate start and he will be doing it on the road in a nationally televised night game. As it is, Wyoming has paled 4 of their last 5 games away from home Under the Total. The Cowboys have also played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. But the foundation of this team last year was a defense that ranked 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Eight starters return from that unit including All-Mountain West Conference candidates at all three levels — so Bohl will likely lean on this group heavily to begin the year. Wyoming has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on field turf. New Mexico State (0-0) makes their debut as an independent after their contract with the Sun Belt last season. They also have a new starting quarterback with head coach Doug Martin tapping junior college transfer Matt Romero over senior Nick Jeanty. But the Aggies will also have the luxury of leaning on an experienced defense as they return ten of their top eleven tacklers from last year’s team. New Mexico State was a bend-but-do-not-break group last year on defense as they were 7th in the nation in 3rd Down defense while ranking 41st in the FBS in Red Zone defense. This should be an even better group under the guidance of an outstanding defensive coach in defensive coordinator Frank Spaziano who had some elite defensive units when he was the head coach at Boston College. The Aggies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on field-turf — and the Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games at home.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams kicking off their seasons early with experienced defenses and rookie quarterbacks, expect this to be a low-scoring game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-25-18 |
Braves v. Marlins UNDER 8 |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. THE SITUATION: Miami (52-78) rebounded from a 5-0 loss on Thursday to shutout the Braves on Friday with their 1-0 victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Marlins have now seen the Under go 8-2-2 in their last 12 games at home. Miami is a heavy underdog in this game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 home games Under the Total as an underdog priced in the +150 to +200 price range. They give the ball to Chen who is 4-9 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in twenty starts. But while the right-hander has been a disaster on the road where he has been saddled with a 9.34 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .335 in ten starts, he has been quite good at home where he sports a 2.05 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .194 in ten starts at home. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Marlins’ last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. He faces a cold-hitting Braves team that went into Friday night scoring only 3.4 Runs-Per-Game with a .243 batting average over their last seven games along with a .315 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .664 over that span. Atlanta (77-56) has played 7 straight games Under the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Braves’ last 8 games against left-handed starting pitchers. Atlanta has now played 15 of their last 23 games this month Under the Total. The Under is also now 5-0-1 in their last 6 games on the road. They counter with Sanchez who is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and an opponent’s batting average of 1.09 in seventeen starts. The veteran right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has an ERA of 3.06 with a 1.08 WHOP buoyed by an opponent’s batting average of .203. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves’ last 5 road games with Sanchez on the hill — and Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with Sanchez pitching as a money-line favorite priced in the -125 to -175 range. He faces a Marlins’ team that has seen the Under go 5-2-2 in their last 9 home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Runs have been hard to come by in this series with just seven runs scored between these two teams in the first two games of this series. Expect another low-scoring game. 25* MLB FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Braves (905) and the Miami Marlins (906) listing both starting pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Wei-Yin Chen. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Lions v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
33-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 30-17 upset loss at home to the Giants last Friday. Tampa Bay (2-0) comes off a 30-14 upset victory in Tennessee last Saturday where they were 3-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 3 straight games Under the Total are a double-digit upset loss at home as a home favorite. Detroit has lost and failed to cover the point spread in both their first two preseason games but rookie head coach Matt Patricia is embracing this third preseason game as the proverbial “dress rehearsal” contest. The Lions have played 9 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after suffering two straight preseason games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after enduring at least two straight point spread losses in the preseason. Patricia is committed to having the Lions run the football to control time of possession and keep the defense off the field — so expect to see this strategy enacted in this contest. As it is, Detroit has played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last preseason game. The Lions have also played 10 of their last 14 preseason games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay has played their last 3 preseason games Under the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their previous preseason game under the guidance of head coach Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers have seen their first two preseason games finish Over the Total — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total after playing two straight preseason games Over the Total. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight preseason games Under the Total under Koetter — and this franchise has played 29 of their last 41 home games in the preseason Under the Total when favored by no more than 7 points. And in their last 18 preseason games against an NFC opponent, the Bucs have played 12 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total has been bet up to the mid-40s for this game with Tampa Bay scoring 28.0 PPG this preseason — but that is likely an overreaction. These two teams tend to play lower scoring games in this preseason which should be the case with the first-stringers playing through the first-half but not wanting to reveal too much on offense against a potential opponent in the NFC Playoffs. 25* NFLx CBS-TV Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (259) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-24-18 |
Patriots v. Panthers UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
14-25 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). THE SITUATION: New England (2-0) remained undefeated this preseason when they crushed the Eagles last Thursday by a 37-20 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Carolina (2-0) is also unscathed so far in the preseason after they defeated Miami by a 27-20 score as a 3-point favorite last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers’ have averaged 27.5 PPG in their first two preseason games but their offense will likely struggle in this dress rehearsal game. The Carolina offensive line is without two of their starters with both Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams out with injuries. Not only will the Panthers miss these two players blocking for Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey but their absence will likely compel the Panthers to be even more conservative on offense so as to not risk an injury to Newton under center. As it is, Carolina has played 9 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 preseason games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have played 11 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Ron Rivera when playing with six days or less of rest. Carolina has also played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total under Rivera’s leadership with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Panthers have played their first two preseason games Over the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 preseason games Under the Total after playing their two previous preseason games Over the Total. New England has also played their two preseason games Over the Total with their offense averaging 31.5 PPG. But the Patriots are only generating 317.8 total YPG this preseason so their scoring numbers should decrease. In their win over the Eagles last week, one of their touchdowns was scored from a 54-yard fumble recovery. New England has a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Patriots defense did allow 316 passing yards to Philly in that game — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last preseason contest. New England has played 10 of their last 16 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Now after playing their last two preseason games at home, the Patriots go on the road for the first time this month which should slow down their offense a bit. New England has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total after playing their last two preseason games at home. The Patriots have also played 11 of their last 17 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. Lastly, New England’s teams under Bill Belichick have played 13 of their last 21 road games in the preseason Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points.
FINAL TAKE: While Tom Brady and Newton should play the first half, both teams have below average backups in Brian Hoyer and Garrett Gilbert. The high scoring games that both these two teams have played have attracted many bettors to take the Over which has pushed this Total up to the 45 point range. That is likely an overreaction which makes this strong Under situation even better. 25* NFLx Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (257) and the Carolina Panthers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-20-18 |
Ravens v. Colts UNDER 43 |
Top |
20-19 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) remained undefeated in this preseason with a 33-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Thursday as a 3.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (1-0) also earned a victory last Thursday as they upset Seattle by a 19-17 score as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens were quite good on defense last week as they held the Rams to just 170 yards of offense. With eleven starters returning from last years’ team that was 6th in the NFL by holding opponents to just 18.9 PPG, the Ravens defense has a good chance to be one of the best units in the NFL this season — and they boast plenty of depth after enduring a few injury-riddled seasons. Depth is a critical factor in handicapping preseason NFL action — and the Ravens have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Furthermore, Baltimore has allowed only 7 points in their two preseason games so far this month — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 preseason games Under the Total under head coach Jim Harbaugh after not allowing more than 7 points in the first-half of their previous two preseason games. On offense, rookie Lamar Jackson had a better game against the Rams than his opening contest against the Bears but he does not appear ready to challenge Joe Flacco to be the starter anytime soon. He should see plenty of action tonight with Robert Griffin III looking solid as a veteran backup on this team. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 12 preseason games Under the Total after winning their last two preseason games. And in their last 6 preseason games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Ravens have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Colts defense also flexed their muscles last week by holding the Seahawks to just 195 yards of offense. What Indy lacks in defensive talent they make up for in plenty of roster competition to earn spots everywhere — so this unit will play very hard tonight. QB Andrew Luck looked good last week by completing 6 of 9 passes for 64 yards — but I do not expect new head coach Frank Reich to push the envelope too much with him by playing for an extended period of time. Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 13 preseason games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Colts have also played 16 of their last 22 home preseason games as a favorite of 3 points or less. Additionally, Indy has played 6 of their last 8 preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 preseason games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game has been up significantly with the number opening at 37 but it is now listed in many places as high as 43. I love it. 25* NFLx ESPN Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (431) and the Indianapolis Colts (432). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-18 |
Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
8-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. THE SITUATION: These two teams have split the first four games of this series after New York (53-69) defeated Philadelphia (68-55) yesterday by a 3-1 score. This series travels south to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for ESPN’s second annual Little League Classic to be played at Bowman Field (with Major League dimensions).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New York had been on-fire with their bats just a few days ago — but, alas, they have already begun to cool off after scoring 16 runs on Wednesday before plating 24 runners in the opening game of this series on Thursday which was Game One of the double-header that day. The Mets have a .330 batting average over their last five games — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after hitting at least .315 over their last five games. This regression is already taking place as they have just a .202 On-Base Percentage over their last three games — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not having better than a .260 On-Base Percentage over their last three contests. Additionally, New York has played a decisive 51 of their last 83 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 7 to 8.5 range. They give the ball to Vargas who has been a disappointment this year with a 2-8 record with an 8.10 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP in thirteen starts. But the right-hander has perhaps found his groove again after allowing only two runs in 6 innings of work in his last start against the Orioles. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ last 4 games with Vargas on the hill — and Vargas’ teams have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total with him making the start for a night game. Vargas faces a Phillies team that has seen the Under go 40-19-2 in their last 61 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored. The Phillies have also played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a loss by no more than two runs. They counter with Pivetta who is 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. While the Mets are the technical home team, this is an unfamiliar environment for Pivetta — yet he pitched 6 scoreless innings in his last start away from Citi Field in Arizona. The Under is 8-1-2 in New York’s last 11 games with Pivetta pitching after a loss — and the Phillies have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total with Pivetta pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Lastly, in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 9 times.
FINAL TAKE: The first Little League Classic was also played in Williamsburg last August with the Pirates defeating the Cardinals by a 6-3 score with Ivan Nova defeating Mike Leake. Expect this contest to see fewer runs. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Mets (913) and the Philadelphia Phillies (914) listing both starting pitchers Jason Vargas and Nick Pivetta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-18-18 |
Arsenal v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (0-0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss to Manchester City last Sunday. Chelsea (1-0-0) earned a win in their opening match last Saturday with a 3-0 win at Huddersfield.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams are learning new systems under new managers that prioritize offensive tactics. Maurizio Sarri has to be pleased with Chelsea scoring three times on the road in their opening match. Sarri has his team playing high while emphasizing speed and controlling possession which is a radical departure from the defensive counter-attacking tactics of their previous manager Antonio Conte. The results against Huddersfield was to get their defensive midfielders more involved as N’Golo Kante and their new summer transfer Jorginho both scored goals along with Pedro from the midfield. The Blues attempted a healthy 13 shots last week. Generating more goals is a priority for Sarri after this team finished 6th in goals scored last season but with their 62 tally far behind the top-five teams in that category. The starting XI also looks to get a boost with Eden Hazard likely to start after not being fit after getting time off after his World Cup efforts with Belgium. But this renewed emphasis on playing high with speed will make Chelsea vulnerable in their back end. Huddersfield forced ten turnovers in the Blues’ back last week which they were not able to convert into goals. The transition from Conte’s preferred 3-5-2 formation to a 4-3-3 is asking the Chelsea defenders to embrace some new responsibilities which might produce some growing pains for players like Marcos Alonso who had been given the green light to drift more into the offensive end of the pitch when on the attack. The Blues also have a new goalkeeper in Kepa Arrizabalaga who might experience some cohesion issues with his new club when facing a rise in competition this week after just being acquired at the beginning of the month. Arsenal did not score against the reigning EPL Champions last week — but they did show spunk by forcing seven turnovers in Man City’s back end which should lead to scoring chances if continued in this match. New manager Unai Emery wants his team to employ the en-vogue high-pressing system to create more scoring chances. This attack came alive late in the match when Alexandre Lacazette was subbed in to play alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This forward pairing should get the start in this important match. The bigger challenge for Emery and this Gunners’ squad is shoring things up on defense after the finished a disappointing 9th in the EPL by allowing 51 goals. The Arsenal back line is the biggest weakness of the team — and this group is banged up now and not close to 100%. Frankly, the team needs to upgrade their center-backers but that is not an option at this early part of the season. Instead, the high-pressing system will likely lead to some nervy moments when these tactics fail — Man City attempted 17 shots with eight on target last week.
FINAL TAKE: This is an important early match for two teams that are fighting for a Top-Four finish this season. Both sides have leaky defenses with new systems still being worked out. With both teams also emphasizing a renewed aggressiveness in offensive tactics, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* EPL NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Arsenal (2500) and Chelsea (2501). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (68-55) has lost four of their last six games after their 8-4 loss in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday. St. Louis (66-56) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped won Wednesday with their 5-4 loss to Washington yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Brewers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after an off-day — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when facing an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Milwaukee has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. They give the ball to Peralta who is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in eleven starts. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.17 mark along with a 1.50 WHIP in seven starts. The Brewers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Peralta making the start. He faces a Cardinals team that is scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .357 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .878. St. Louis has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs. The Cardinals have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by two runs or less. St. Louis has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Flaherty who is 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in nineteen starts. The rookie right-hander has not been as effective at home where he has an ERA of 3.53 with a 1.11 WHIP. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total with Flaherty pitching with five days of rest. He also faces a hot-hitting team as the Brewers are scoring 5.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .299 batting average along with a .331 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .780.
FINAL TAKE: The number is generally at 8 in most locations for this game. Both with two lineups hitting the ball well facing young starting pitchers that have an ever-growing book being written on their strengths and weaknesses, expect a higher-scoring game. 25* MLB National League Central Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Brewers (911) and the St. Louis Cardinals (912) listing both starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-17-18 |
Giants v. Lions UNDER 40 |
Top |
30-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back after suffering a 20-10 upset loss last Thursday at home against Cleveland as a 1-point favorite in their first preseason game. Detroit (0-1) also looks to get a victory after they lost last Friday in Oakland by a 16-10 score as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams had joint practices this week — so this game will serve as the culmination of that work. The most aggressive play-calling often occurs in those simulated practice sessions — these exhibition games often end up particularly vanilla as the culmination of these scrimmages. The Giants plan on using this game to given an extended look to second-year backup quarterback Davis Webb who is competing with rookie Kyle Lavletta for the backup job to Eli Manning. Webb struggled last week against the Browns as he completed only 9 of 22 passes for only 70 yards. Lavletta was OK but not particularly impressive in his professional debut as he completed 6 of his 9 passes but that only produced 48 yards. New York has played 14 of their last 21 preseason games Under the Total after a double-digit loss in the preseason. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 road preseason games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Additionally, New York has played 4 of their last 5 preseason games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit managed to generate only 253 yards of offense last week against the Raiders. But I do not expect rookie head coach Matt Patricia to have any plans on opening up the offense this week. General manager Bob Quinn considered last year’s team too soft on both sides of the football. I expect the Lions to commit to trying to improve their running game while perhaps giving a bunch of carries to Ameer Abdullah who is on the trading block after they signed LeGarrette Blount in the offseason before drafting Auburn’s Kerryone Johnson in the second round of the NFL draft. This second exhibition game looks to be a showcase for third-year QB Jake Rudock who is fighting for the backup job to Matthew Stafford. Rudock completed 12 of 19 passes for 84 yards last week against the Raiders but failed to generate enough scoring opportunities in moving the offense. Detroit has played 21 of their last 33 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 preseason games overall Under the Total with the number set in that range.
FINAL TAKE: Much of the important work for both these rookie head coaches in the Giants’ Pat Shurmer and Patricia of the Lions has already been done this week. Look for this to be a game fought in the trenches which is an area of emphasis for both coaches. Expect a low-scoring game. 25* NFLx NFC Preseason Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (407) and the Detroit Lions (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-18 |
Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 |
Top |
4-7 |
Loss |
-100 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. THE SITUATION: Boston (86-35) has won eleven of their last twelve games with their 2-1 win over the Phillies yesterday in the opening game of this series.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s last 4 games after a victory — and the Under is 9-0-2 in their last 11 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Boston’s last 4 games on the road. They give the ball to Eovaldi who is 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in thirteen starts. The right-hander looks to redeem himself from a terrible outing where he got rocked for eight runs (six earned) while surrendering a season-high 10 hits in an exasperating outing against the anemic Orioles. Eovaldi began the start with a microscopic 0.43 ERA along with a 0.67 WHIP in his three previous starts with the latter two being in a Red Sox uniform after being acquired from the Twins. Eovaldi’s teams have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with him on the mound with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. He faces a cold Phillies lineup that is scoring only 2.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .170 batting average, .247 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .507 over that span. The Under is 9-1-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Phillies (65-53) have seen the Under go 40-15-4 in their last 59 games after a loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where no more than four combined runs were scored — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than one run in their last game. Furthermore, the Phillies have played 8 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They counter with Velasquez who is 8-9 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in twenty-two starts.Over his last ten appearances, Velasquez has a sparkling 2.68 ERA. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he owns a 1.17 WHIP and .216 opponent’s batting average in twelve starts as compared to his 1.29 WHIP and .242 opponent’s batting average when on the road. The Phillies have played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Velasquez on the hill. he faces a Red Sox team that has seen the Under go 15-5-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers — and this includes the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Lastly, the Under is now 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
FINAL TAKE: Eovaldi should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight — expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that tend to play Unders. 25* MLB Wednesday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Red Sox (921) and the Philadelphia Phillies (922) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Vincent Velasquez. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-13-18 |
Mets v. Yankees OVER 7 |
Top |
8-5 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. THE SITUATION: The Mets (49-66) has won three of their last four games after their 4-3 win in Miami yesterday. The Yankees (74-43) has won six of their last seven games with their 7-2 win over Texas on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 games after a win — and the Mets’ have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series Over the Total. The Mets have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total as an underdog priced at least at +150 — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when facing an American League opponent. They give the ball to DeGrom who is 6-7 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in twenty-three starts. While DeGrom has been outstanding this season, the sabermetrics indicate he should be giving up more than one run more per start given his SIERA of 2.94 and his xFIP of 2.78. And while DeGrom has been almost unhittable at home where he owns a 1.60 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .191 in thirteen starts, he is closer to a mere mortal when on the road where he his ERA rises to a 2.02 mark along with a 1.09 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .225. The Mets have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total with DeGrom pitching as an underdog priced in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Yankees team that scores 5.7 Runs-Per-Game at home — and they are scoring 6.3 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. The Over is 3-1-1 the Bronx Bombers’ last 5 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games after a win — and they have played 29 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after a win by at least four runs. Furthermore, the Yankees have played 6 of their last 8 opening games to a new series — and the Over is 4-1-2 in their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record. They counter with Severino who is 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in twenty-four starts. The right-hander has struggled as of late with a 7.31 ERA over his last six starts with him struggling with command on his fastball. He comes off a solid outing last Wednesday where he allowed three earned runs in 7 innings of work — but that was against the lowly White Sox. The Yankees have played 4 straight games Over the Total with Severino pitching on four days of rest. He faces a Mets team that is scoring 4.6 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests. Lastly, the Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Yankee Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: The number is posted at a low 7 with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the hill — but expect this to be a higher scoring contest. 25* MLB Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Mets (921) and the New York Yankees (922) listing both starting pitchers Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-18 |
Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
39 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). THE SITUATION: Montreal (1-6) looks to bounce-back from the debut of Johnny Manziel in the CFL which resulted in a humiliating 50-11 loss to Hamilton as a 6.5-point underdog. Ottawa (4-3) looks to rebound from a 42-41 upset loss in Toronto as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manziel did not look comfortable under center — he threw four interceptions with three of those passes being ones that were definitely his fault. Manziel needs to learn from those bad mistakes that he simply cannot force the action even if he is no longer playing in the NFL. I expect him to play a more disciplined game after that embarrassment that literally made international headlines. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike Sherman commits to running the ball more to take the pressure off Manziel in this contest. Tyrell Sutton ran the ball only nine times last week but gained 61 yards on those carries. As it is, the Alouettes have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Now Montreal goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Alouettes are scoring only 13.7 PPG on the road — but their defense has played better away from home as they are allowing home teams to scoring 21.3 PPG along with averaging 309.0 total YPG which are both much better numbers than their 34.6 PPG/430.1 YPG season averages. Furthermore, Montreal has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog. Ottawa blew a 24-point lead against the Argonauts after holding a 28-7 lead at halftime. While that was a wild game, the Redblacks scored two of their touchdowns from a punt return and an interception return. Expect head coach Rick Campbell to prioritize his team to back to playing better defense after that disastrous second-half. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to an East Division rival. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after they scored at least 27 points in the first-half of their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Redblacks should also commit to running the ball more after managing only 46 and 64 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Over might look attractive to many bettors considered that these two teams surrendered 50 and 42 points last week. But Manziel’s interceptions and a crazy second-half contributed greatly to those high scores. Both head coaches want to do whatever they can to reinstall confidence with their defenses — and that should help this contest result in a lower-scoring game. 25* CFL East Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Montreal Alouettes (355) and the Ottawa Redblacks (356). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-18 |
Leicester v. Manchester United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-113 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). THE SITUATION: The 2018-19 English Premier League kicks off their season on Friday with the 2015-16 Champions with Leicester City (0-0-0) traveling to Old Trafford to face Manchester United (0-0-0).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a match greatly impacted by the World Cup last month — a number of key offensive talent will be missing from both sides. Leicester City will be without Jamie Vardy after he played was the backup striker for the England team that made it to the Semifinals. Vardy did not play a bunch for the Three Lions but he just joined the Foxes in training so manager Claude Puel does not think he is in shape to take the pitch. Leicester City has an intriguing young striker in 21-year old Kelechi Iheanacho but he is a step down from Vardy who is one of the best scoring forwards in the English Premier League after playing a vital role in that championship run three seasons ago. Puel will likely have his team rely even more on defense and counter-attacks with the loss of their star midfielder Riyad Mahrez who inked a big transfer to Manchester City this summer. The Foxes were 17th in the EPL last year by allowing 60 goals — but they are likely to change their tactics this year while being aided by a nice signing in center back Jonny Evans who came over from the relegated West Brom. Manchester United will likely be without a host of players who were still playing in the Semifinals of the World Cup: forward Romelu Lukaku, midfielders Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard and Marouane Fellaini and defenseman Ashley Young. Cohesion will likely be an issue for this team after manager Jose Mourinho took a squad to the United States for the International Champions Cup matches without a whopping thirteen players who needed the time off after playing in the World Cup. The Red Devils will hope that backup forward Marcus Rashford or Alexis Sanchez in the midfield will be able to score — but they will be very happy with a 1-0 result. Mourinho’s team emphasizes defensive tactics to the frustration of many of his players and fans. The Red Devils were second in the EPL last year by allowing a mere 28 goals for a low 0.74 Goals-Per-Game allowed mark. Mourinho is also dealing with some injuries to midfielder Nemanja Matic and right back Antonio Valencia who both play critical roles in his defensive tactics. The absence of these two players will likely compel the Red Devils to play even more cautiously in this contest and not risk Leicester City seizing a lead.
FINAL TAKE: This opening match shapes up to feature conservative tactics on both sides given the absences for both teams. Leicester City would be thrilled with a scoreless draw while Mourinho’s teams tend to hold out to the second-half to finally get on the board. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (2518) and Manchester United (2519). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-07-18 |
Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (34-78) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 9-6 win in Texas. Tampa Bay (56-56) has lost three straight games with their 8-7 loss to the White Sox on Sunday. After a travel day yesterday, these two teams begin their series tonight.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Baltimore has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Additionally, this is the Orioles’ seventh straight game on the road — and not only have they played 16 of their last 22 road games Over the Total after playing at least their previous six games away from home but they have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. They give the ball to Cobb who is 3-14 with a 5.83 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in twenty starts. The right-hander has been even worse on the road where his ERA rises to a 5.93 mark along with a 1.58 WHIP in thirteen starts. Cobb’s teams have played 11 of their last 16 road games Over the Total when they are priced as an underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. He faces a Rays team that is scoring 5.1 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .254 batting average along with a .343 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .740 over that span — and all those numbers are above their season average. Tampa Bay has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. Additionally, the Rays have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games. The Rays are big money-line favorites priced in the -160 range — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when priced at -150 or higher. Tampa Bay will be looking to avenge an 11-5 loss back on July 29th — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 10 runs. They counter with Glasnow who is 1-2 with a 4.27 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP this season. He will be making his first start for the Rays since being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline. The right-hander had an ugly 7.76 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) at home last season — and has not been as effective at home almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season where he has a 1.43 WHIP and a .232 opponent’s batting average in 38 1/3 innings as compared to his 1.40 WHIP and a .213 opponent’s batting average in 20 2/3 innings on the road. Glasgow’s teams have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with him making the start. He faces a hot-hitting Orioles lineup that is scoring 6.0 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven contests with a .303 batting average along with a .345 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .803 over that span. The Over is also 13-3-2 in Baltimore’s last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 131-30-3 combined angle for this situation.
FINAL TAKE: The number for this game is in the relatively low 7.5 to 8 range — perhaps because of the respective offenses in this game along with some optimism regarding Glasnow’s prospects as a starting pitcher. But both these teams are hitting the ball well as of late — and Glasnow has yet to see significant improvement in his command which is why he was relegated to the bullpen this season by the Pirates before being traded to Tampa Bay. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (915) and the Tampa Bay Rays (916) listing both starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Tyler Glasnow. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-18 |
Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 17 m |
Show
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At 8:07 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (53-51) has won three of their last four games after winning the second game of this series yesterday by a 6-2 score over the Cubs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Additionally, St. Louis has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total as an underdog. They give the ball to Gant who is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in seven starts (and fourteen appearances). The sabermetrics indicate that the right-hander has been overachieving as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.79 and 4.75 respectively moving forward. Gant is making his first start since July 21st (while pitching an inning of relief on Wednesday) — and the Cards have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total with Gant pitching with at least seven days between starts. He faces a Cubs team that has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Gant will likely not get much support from his bullpen in this game either as the St. Louis bullpen has a 5.47 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP over the last seven days. Chicago (60-44) has lost four of their last six games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Cubs have also played 7 of their last 8 third games of a series Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NL Central foes. They counter with Hendricks who is 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in twenty-one starts this season. The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he sees his ERA rise to a 4.70 mark along with a 1.43 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .282. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with Hendricks facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Cardinals team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these starting pitchers will likely give up their share of runs tonight. Look for a higher-scoring game on national television tonight. 25* MLB Sunday Night ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Cubs (963) and the St. Louis Cardinals (964) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Hendricks and John Gant. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-28-18 |
Ottawa v. Hamilton UNDER 56 |
Top |
21-15 |
Win
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100 |
20 h 10 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). THE SITUATION: Ottawa (3-2) comes off a 29-25 win over British Columbia last week as a 6.5-point favorite. Hamilton (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 upset loss at home to Saskatchewan where they were -10.5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Redblacks have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Ottawa rushed for only 67 yards in the game after managing only 35 rushing yards the previous week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. Now the Redblacks go back on the road where they are scoring only 21.0 PPG — but they are also allowing only 21.0 PPG while holding their opponents to just 332.0 total YPG. Ottawa has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. Additionally, the Redblacks have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against East Division foes — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Ottawa has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of July. Hamilton saw 51 combined points scored in their last game — but that game also saw two punt returns for touchdowns which added significantly to that tally. The Tiger-Cats defense has stalled as of late with QB Jeremiah Masoli has thrown only one TD pass in his last three games. Head coach June Jones’ offense may not be making enough halftime adjustments as they have scored only 9 combined points in the second halves of their last two games. They were held scoreless in the last 21:42 minutes of their loss to the Roughriders last Thursday. Hamilton has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival. The Tiger-Cats have also played 38 of their last 53 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 51 of their last 77 home games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 range. Lastly, Hamilton has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Total for this game is rather high with it currently in the mid-50s. There is strong value for taking the Under with both these teams experiencing issues on offense. 25* CFL ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ottawa Redblacks (365) and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-27-18 |
Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
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At 7:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (58-44) won the opening game of this series last night over Cincinnati (45-58) by a 9-4 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have won three straight games as well as five of their last seven contests — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. Philadelphia has also played 6 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Phillies have played 4 of these games Over the Total. They give the ball to Pivetta who is 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in twenty starts (21 games). The right-hander has not been as effective on the road where he has a 5.36 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in nine starts. Pivetta has also taken a nose dive since his ERA peaked at a 3.23 mark back on May 21st. In his 48 2/3 innings since, Pivetta has 6.29 ERA with a 1.80 WHIP. And in his last four starts, Pivetta has been even worse with an 8.82 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 4 games with Pivetta facing a team with a winning record. He faces a Reds team that has seen the Over go 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati’s last 11 games after a loss — and the Over is also 18-6-3 in the Reds’ last 27 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 14-3-2 in Cincinnati’s last 19 home games against teams with a winning record. They counter with DeSclafani who is 4-3 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in nine starts. He has surrendered 14 home runs this season after giving up two bombs in his last start against the Pirates. The right-hander has been worse at home where he sees his ERA rise to a 5.57 mark along with a 1.45 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .286 in six starts. The Reds have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with DeSclafani on the hill. He faces a Phillies team that has scored 6.7 Runs-Per-Game over their last seven games with a .263 batting average with a .319 On-Base Percentage and an OPS of .812. Philadelphia has also played 4 straight games Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers.
FINAL TAKE: Pivetta has been a disaster for the last two months while struggling on the road even during his encouraging start to the season.— and the Reds have been an Over machine as of late. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (953) and the Cincinnati Reds (954) listing both starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Anthony DeSclafani. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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