08-23-20 |
Kyle Busch -125 v. Chase Elliott |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moved to the Dover International Speedway in Delaware for a double-header this weekend. Denny Hamlin passed our Best Bet Martin Truex yesterday in the final laps to take the checkered flag in the first of two races scheduled there this weekend. Today’s Drydene 311 will only be 311 laps rather than the traditional 400 for the “monster mile” here given the doubleheader nature of this event. This is a mile oval course that is most closely resembles the Bristol International Speedway due to its 24-degree banked concrete turn. The best track history numbers require us to skip last year where the drivers used a high downforce race package. The drivers this weekend will return to the low downforce high 750 horsepower package that was previously used here up until 2018.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Kyle Busch who is listed at +600 according to Bovada. The reigning Cup Series champion has struggled this year with no victories on the circuit. Busch has complained that he has been hampered by the lack of practice time on the tracks given COVID restrictions. Yesterday’s race serves as his de-facto practice dry run — so he should be able to make some nice adjustments today with his Joe Gibbs Racing team. He did finish in 3rd place yesterday so he should be very confident about this race. That was his third top-five finish in his last four starts. Busch will start in the 18th position today given the inverted order with the top-twenty finishers yesterday. Not only will he be starting ahead of Joe Gibbs teammates Hamlin and Truex but he should be comfortable in this spot after being relegated to the 22nd starting position yesterday. Busch is linked with Chase Elliott in head-to-head propositions. Elliott comes off winning at Daytona last week in a road course that he thrives in. These intermediate 1-mile races are not Elliott’s strong suit. Elliott did finish in 5th place yesterday but he had just a 22nd place finish at Bristol earlier this year in a similar style race. Since 2017, Elliott ranks 7th in the Cup Series on intermediate 1-mile tracks with an average finish of 12.26 with one victory — as compared to Busch who ranks 3rd on those courses with an average finish of 8.37 with four victories along the way. Take Kyle Busch (7619) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Elliott (7620). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Brad Keselowski -155 v. Jimmie Johnson |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moved to the Dover International Speedway in Delaware for a double-header this weekend. Denny Hamlin passed our Best Bet Martin Truex yesterday in the final laps to take the checkered flag in the first of two races scheduled there this weekend. Today’s Drydene 311 will only be 311 laps rather than the traditional 400 for the “monster mile” here given the doubleheader nature of this event. This is a mile oval course that is most closely resembles the Bristol International Speedway due to its 24-degree banked concrete turn. The best track history numbers require us to skip last year where the drivers used a high downforce race package. The drivers this weekend will return to the low downforce high 750 horsepower package that was previously used here up until 2018.
Our Top Overlay Bet on driver who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Brad Keselowski who Bovada lists at +1000. Keselowksi finished in 9th place yesterday but the deeper number are encouraging for him today. He finished 4th in best average driving position while ranking 6th in best average green flag speed. Keselowski won at Bristol earlier this year which is the track that most closely resembles Dover. Keselowski is a savvy veteran driver who has won three times on the Cup Series this year with two of the wins being vulture victories helped by late restarts — so a race that may feature plenty of crashes and restarts plays into his wheelhouse. Keselowski had registered seven straight top-nine finishes before suffering a crash at Michigan two weeks ago where he finished 39th. He responded with a 13th place last week at Daytona — but he should be primed for a big performance this week. He is linked with Jimmie Johnson in head-to-head betting propositions. Johnson has a strong track record here at Dover in his career — and he finished in 7th place yesterday. That came on the heels of a 4th place finish last week at Daytona. But Johnson had not finished better than 10th place in his previous twelve races as he continues his swan song season a step or two behind the top drivers. He now draws the 14th starting position leaving behind Keselowski at the 12th spot. Take Keselowski (7627) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Kyle Busch (7628). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-23-20 |
Ryan Blaney -105 v. Erik Jones |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moved to the Dover International Speedway in Delaware for a double-header this weekend. Denny Hamlin passed our Best Bet Martin Truex yesterday in the final laps to take the checkered flag in the first of two races scheduled there this weekend. Today’s Drydene 311 will only be 311 laps rather than the traditional 400 for the “monster mile” here given the doubleheader nature of this event. This is a mile oval course that is most closely resembles the Bristol International Speedway due to its 24-degree banked concrete turn. The best track history numbers require us to skip last year where the drivers used a high downforce race package. The drivers this weekend will return to the low downforce high 750 horsepower package that was previously used here up until 2018.
Our Long Shot Bet is on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Ryan Blaney who is listed at +2800 to win this race. Blaney comes off a 14th place result yesterday which will give him the 7th starting spot for today’s race. Blaney is in a mini-slump having finished just 31st and 37th places in his previous two starts at Daytona and Michigan. But Blaney had finished in 7th place or better in his four of his previous six starts — and he won at Talladega earlier this year. Blaney does generally perform better on the longer tracks but he does have a good history at Bristol that profiles closely to this race. Frankly, it is often that Blaney’s odds drop this low — so he is worth the flyer especially with the advantageous starting position relative to the favorites. Blaney is linked with Erik Jones for head-to-head betting propositions. Jones finished 12th yesterday which was his fifth straight race where he failed to crack the top-ten results. After seeing his contract not renewed by Joe Gibbs Racing, Jones is in limbo right now. Jones has consistently middling results — and Blaney has the better upside. Take Blaney (7639) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Jones (7640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-22-20 |
Kevin Harvick v. Martin Truex Jr -105 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Dover International Speedway in Delaware for a double-header this weekend. Today’s Drydene 311 will only be 311 laps rather than the traditional 400 for the “monster mile” here. This is a mile oval course that is most closely resembles the Bristol International Speedway due to its 24-degree banked concrete turn. The best track history numbers require us to skip last year where the drivers used a high downforce race package. The drivers this weekend will return to the low downforce high 750 horsepower package that was previously used here up until 2018.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Martin Truex who is listed at +400 at Bovada. Truex may be the hottest driver on the Cup Series right now outside of Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin as he has earned 3rd place finishes in five straight events. Truex thrives on intermediate tracks like this one-mile oval. Truex has a great track history here as well with two victories in his last twelve trips here over the last six years. He has not finished worse than 15th place in all twelve of those races. His average finish of 4.83 here since 2017 is the best mark of all the drivers in the field. Truex is linked with Kevin Harvick in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. I am fading Harvick for this initial race with him drawing the ten spot for starting positions. With this being a shorter race, starting position plays a critical role — so it will be difficult for Harvick to advance to the front of this race. Harvick’s favorite horsepower package is not the 750 higher-powered package as none of his victories this year have come with it. Take Truex (7504) versus Harvick (7503) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-22-20 |
Brad Keselowski +130 v. Kyle Busch |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Dover International Speedway in Delaware for a double-header this weekend. Today’s Drydene 311 will only be 311 laps rather than the traditional 400 for the “monster mile” here. This is a mile oval course that is most closely resembles the Bristol International Speedway due to its 24-degree banked concrete turn. The best track history numbers require us to skip last year where the drivers used a high downforce race package. The drivers this weekend will return to the low downforce high 750 horsepower package that was previously used here up until 2018.
Our Top Overlay Bet on driver who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Brad Keselowski who Bovada lists at +1200. Keselowski won at Bristol earlier this year which is the track that most closely resembles Dover. Keselowski is a savvy veteran driver who has won three times on the Cup Series this year with two of the wins being vulture victories helped by late restarts — so a race that may feature plenty of crashes and restarts plays into his wheelhouse. Keselowski had registered seven straight top-nine finishes before suffering a crash at Michigan two weeks ago where he finished 39th. He responded with a 13th place last week at Daytona — but he should be primed for a big performance this week. He is linked with Kyle Busch in head-to-head betting propositions. The reigning Cup Series champion has struggled this year with no victories on the circuit. Busch has complained that he has been hampered by the lack of practice time on the tracks given COVID restrictions. Busch has also struggled in bumpy races this year where he has too often seen himself get the worst end of some exchanges — and that is not a good sign for this afternoon’s race. That is what happened to Busch last week at Daytona where he finished 37th. Take Keselowski (7504) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Kyle Busch (7503). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-22-20 |
Clint Bowyer -210 v. Matt Kenseth |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Dover International Speedway in Delaware for a double-header this weekend. Today’s Drydene 311 will only be 311 laps rather than the traditional 400 for the “monster mile” here. This is a mile oval course that is most closely resembles the Bristol International Speedway due to its 24-degree banked concrete turn. The best track history numbers require us to skip last year where the drivers used a high downforce race package. The drivers this weekend will return to the low downforce high 750 horsepower package that was previously used here up until 2018.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Clint Bowyer who Bovada lists at +3000 to win this race. Bowyer finished in 2nd place at Bristol which is the race that most closely resembles the track here at Dover. Bowyer also owns the 5th best Driver Rating in the four races that took place at Dover in 2017 and 2018 with the low downforce 750 horsepower package. Bowyer comes off a 6th place result last week at Daytona — and he has the 4th starting position for this race. Bowyer is linked with Matt Kenseth in head-to-head betting propositions. Kenseth finished in 2nd place at the Brickyard but he has not finished better than 15th place in his next eight starts. Kenseth also finished in 16th place at Bristol. Take Bowyer (7577) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Kenseth (7578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-20 |
Kevin Harvick -130 v. Denny Hamlin |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
The Go Bowling 235 will take place at the Daytona International Speedway. This is a much-anticipated race because it will combine the 2.5-mile superspeedway oval track with a right-turn that add a road course with fourteen turns for an added challenge to these drivers. This 3.61-mile “rivol” road course addition is usually reserved for the sports car but given the havoc that COVID-19 placed on the schedules this year, the NASCAR Cup Series decided to add it to their schedule this season to see how it works. This will be a new experience for most of these drivers — and no one will have the benefit of practice runs given COVID restrictions. Just 65 lap given the more than 3 1/2 miles around the winding course. I will be looking to superspeedway results along with road race results — but that data only goes so far given this unique race. I love it! The sports cars race on this roval track is the Roval 24 — and there are a few stock car drivers who have competed in that event on one-off appearances.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Kevin Harvick who is listed at +700 by Bovada. Harvick has been the best driver on the NASCAR Cup Series with six victories after last weekend’s sweep in Michigan. It is not often we get the chance to throw a chip on Harvick at this price. The veteran is one of the few drivers who has experienced here at the Rolex 24 — and he is a winner of one of the last ten road course races in the last ten on the Cup Series circuit. We might see several crashes which mean plenty of restarts. Harvick may be the best driver on the tour — and those skills will be at a premium today. Harvick is linked with Denny Hamlin for head-to-head betting propositions. I have backed Hamlin often this year — especially when he is been getting a better price than Harvick in his duels with him. Yet despite his five victories this season, he has too often lost the head-to-head battle with Harvick. I will take Harvick’s edge in experience in this race along with road course record. Take Harvick (7501) over Hamlin (7502) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-20 |
Jimmie Johnson -135 v. Aric Almirola |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
The Go Bowling 235 will take place at the Daytona International Speedway. This is a much-anticipated race because it will combine the 2.5-mile superspeedway oval track with a right-turn that add a road course with fourteen turns for an added challenge to these drivers. This 3.61-mile “rivol” road course addition will take place at the Daytona International Speedway. This is a much-anticipated race because it will combine the 2.5-mile superspeedway oval track with a right-turn that add a road course with fourteen turns for an added challenge to these drivers. This 3.61-mile “rivol” road course addition is usually reserved for the sports car but given the havoc that COVID-19 placed on the schedules this year, the NASCAR Cup Series decided to add it to their schedule this season to see how it works. This will be a new experience for most of these drivers — and no one will have the benefit of practice runs given COVID restrictions. Just 65 lap given the more than 3 1/2 miles around the winding course. I will be looking to superspeedway results along with road race results — but that data only goes so far given this unique race. I love it! The sports cars race on this roval track is the Roval 24 — and there are a few stock car drivers who have competed in that event on one-off appearances.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top ten favorites to win is on Jimmie Johnson who is listed at +3000 at Bovada to win this race. Johnson is desperate to win one more time on the Cup Series in his swan song season — and this could be the place. Johnson has two 2nd place finishes at the Rolex 24 with the last one being in 2008. Johnson was also winning the Charlotte Roval road course race similar to this layout in 2018 before losing the lead on the final lap. Johnson also has eight starts at the IMSA Michelin Pilot Challenge here at Daytona using this roval format. In what could be a chaotic event, Johnson’s long experience and elite driving skills make him a live dog. Said Johnson about his possibilities: "I am so excited for this weekend at Daytona … The challenges of this track – there will be some really high speeds and then the chicane off of turn four will change that to some degree. It’s going to be a balance of aero efficiency on the straightaways and mechanical grip for the tight little infield section. It’s going to be really interesting for those who have never taken a lap on this track." Johnson is linked with Aric Almirola in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Almirola is having a nice season after finishing in 16th and 6th place over the weekend in Michigan. But he does not have the same experience at this course as Johnson nor the pedigree on road courses. Take Johnson (7545) versus Almirola (7546) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-16-20 |
Kyle Busch -170 v. Joey Logano |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-170 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
The Go Bowling 235 will take place at the Daytona International Speedway. This is a much-anticipated race because it will combine the 2.5-mile superspeedway oval track with a right-turn that add a road course with fourteen turns for an added challenge to these drivers. This 3.61-mile “rivol” road course addition will take place at the Daytona International Speedway. This is a much-anticipated race because it will combine the 2.5-mile superspeedway oval track with a right-turn that add a road course with fourteen turns for an added challenge to these drivers. This 3.61-mile “rivol” road course addition is usually reserved for the sports car but given the havoc that COVID-19 placed on the schedules this year, the NASCAR Cup Series decided to add it to their schedule this season to see how it works. This will be a new experience for most of these drivers — and no one will have the benefit of practice runs given COVID restrictions. Just 65 lap given the more than 3 1/2 miles around the winding course. I will be looking to superspeedway results along with road race results — but that data only goes so far given this unique race. I love it! The sports cars race on this roval track is the Roval 24 — and there are a few stock car drivers who have competed in that event on one-off appearances.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Kyle Busch who Bovada lists at +525. The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion has endured a very disappointing season this year. He has been unlucky by being on the wrong end of some ill-fortuned bumps on the track. However, the main issue has been the lack of practice time on these tracks from week-to-week which Busch has been very vocal about making him feel out of synch. Busch seems to have an edge if he has more course information and experience — and losing out on practice sessions diminishes from his usual edge. But now most of his competitors will have no experience here — and Busch has raced here at the Rolex 24. Busch maintains one of the most diverse schedules on the Cup Series — and while I think that detracts from his chances at times, these experiences should serve him well this afternoon. Said Busch about this challenge today: "I think anytime you’re able to go to a racetrack and gain some experience, run some laps, obviously it helps with the visual, the pickup points, how the transition of the corner and so on, it helps … There’s definitely – I hope, anyway – there’s a little added advantage there. The big difference is the cars I drove in the GTD class, they’re very technologically advanced with the brakes and traction control, so a lot of things you can really attack with those cars, plus a lot of downforce, and they’re lighter." Despite zero wins this season, Busch has been racing well — he has four top-five finishes in his last six races after 4th and 5th place results last weekend at Michigan’s two races. Busch is linked with Joey Logano for head-to-head betting propositions. Logano finished in 5th place last Sunday at the Michigan International Speedway. Yet he tends to perform better on intermediate tracks in the 1 1/2 to 2-mile range like last weekend. He is not as experienced on road courses as Busch either. Take Busch (7501) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Logano. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-20 |
Denny Hamlin -110 v. Ryan Blaney |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series stays in Michigan today to complete the weekend doubleheader at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn. Kevin Harvick won the Firekeepers Casino 400 race yesterday. This is an intermediate 2-mile oval track that was repaved in 2012. Given the doubleheader of two Cup Series races here this weekend, this race has been shortened to 312 miles consisting of 156 laps as it was yesterday. The same tire combination and horsepower package from yesterday will also carry over today.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who is listed at +550 by Bovada. Hamlin and Harvick have been the top two drivers on the NASCAR Cup Series this year with both owning five victories after Harvick’s victory yesterday. I shied away from Hamlin yesterday as he has not been as effective with this tire combination in previous races in Las Vegas, Kentucky, and Texas. Hamlin was in a position to win this race yesterday (with so many late restarts reshuffling the leaderboard). Hamlin finished 2nd yesterday in Driver Rating, most fast laps, and average running position despite ending the day in 6th place. That disappointing 6th place result does give him the 15th starting position (with the top-twenty results from yesterday creating the inverse order for today’s starting positions) — and that has him start ahead of Harvick as well as contenders Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and Martin Truex. Hamlin has won at the Michigan International Speedway twice in his career and he finished 2nd in the August race here last year. Additionally, I had Hamlin tentatively circled for this race because he won the Sunday race at Pocono earlier this year after racing there the day before in NASCAR’s first-weekend doubleheader event which has been scheduled to accommodate the changes needed after the stoppage of play in March. Hamlin is linked with Blaney in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. I have backed Blaney a number of times this year because he is driving one of the fastest cars on the circuit. But Blaney is simply not one of the best drivers — he is at a disadvantage when the races are interrupted since it detracts from the speed of his car. Given the quick turnaround of this race, I think driver talent will play a larger role today given the experience these professionals got on this track yesterday. I think yesterday was the race for Blaney to win — his 4th place result came on the heels of two straight 20th place finishes. Blaney has never won at the Michigan International Speedway and has just one victory this year on the Cup Series tour. Take Hamlin (7617) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Blaney (7618). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-20 |
Erik Jones -140 v. Jimmie Johnson |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series stays in Michigan today to complete the weekend doubleheader at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn. Kevin Harvick won the Firekeepers Casino 400 race yesterday. This is an intermediate 2-mile oval track that was repaved in 2012. Given the doubleheader of two Cup Series races here this weekend, this race has been shortened to 312 miles consisting of 156 laps as it was yesterday. The same tire combination and horsepower package from yesterday will also carry over today.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Erik Jones who is listed at +3300 odds according to Bovada. Jones finished in 11th place yesterday but the deeper analytics suggest he deserved a better fate. Jones had the 4th highest average running position along with earning the 5th best driver rating and the 6th most fastest laps. The bevy of restarts late in that race pushed Jones back to 11th. I was impressed with Jones’ effort yesterday despite getting the news that Joe Gibbs Racing will not be extending his contract next year. He gets the 10th starting slot for this race with the top-twenty results from yesterday creating the inverted starting positions today — so he will start ahead of the top favorites which will offer him an early advantage. Jones does have two top-six finishes in his last four races. Jones has a 3rd place finish on this track in 2017. Jones is lined with Jimmie Johnson for head-to-head betting propositions. It just is not working out for Johnson in his farewell season on the Cup Series. He has failed to finish inside the top-ten in eleven straight Cup Series races. Johnson finished in 12th place yesterday which was his seventh straight race at the Michigan International Speedway where he failed to finish inside the top-ten for Hendrick Motorsports. Take Jones (7649) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Johnson (7650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-09-20 |
Kyle Busch +115 v. Ryan Blaney |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
115 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series stays in Michigan today to complete the weekend doubleheader at Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn. Kevin Harvick won the Firekeepers Casino 400 race yesterday. This is an intermediate 2-mile oval track that was repaved in 2012. Given the doubleheader of two Cup Series races here this weekend, this race has been shortened to 312 miles consisting of 156 laps as it was yesterday. The same tire combination and horsepower package from yesterday will also carry over today.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Kyle Busch who Bovada lists at +750 to win this race. Busch is a driver that I have had circled in sharpie for weeks for this very situation. The reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion has endured a very disappointing season this year. He has been unlucky by being on the wrong end of some ill-fortuned bumps on the track. However, the main issue has been the lack of practice time on these tracks from week-to-week which Busch has been very vocal about making him feel out of synch. Yesterday’s race serves as his de-facto practice session for today — so he should finally return to the level of comfort with his car and the track along with his game plan with his Joe Gibbs Racing team. The record indicates that Busch finished in 38th place in that Sunday second race at Pocono in June — but the eye test from that race was that he got off to a fantastic start after finishing in 5th place the day before. Coincidentally, Busch also finished in 5th place yesterday which was his 3rd top-five finish in his last five races on the NASCAR Cup Series. Busch leads the field in the average finish here at the Michigan International Speedway since 2017 with five straight top-six finishes after yesterday. And he was bumped once again yesterday which will surely leave him and his driving team seething even more than they have all spring and summer. Busch is linked with Ryan Blaney in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. I have backed Blaney a number of times this year because he is driving one of the fastest cars on the circuit. But Blaney is simply not one of the best drivers — he is at a disadvantage when the races are interrupted since it detracts from the speed of his car. Given the quick turnaround of this race, I think driver talent will play a larger role today given the experience these professionals got on this track yesterday. I think yesterday was the race for Blaney to win — his 4th place result came on the heels of two straight 20th place finishes. Blaney has never won at the Michigan International Speedway and has just one victory this year on the Cup Series tour. Take Kyle Busch (7631) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Blaney (7632). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-08-20 |
Brad Keselowski v. Ryan Blaney -130 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-130 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Michigan this week to the Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn. This is an intermediate 2-mile oval track that was repaved in 2012. With the weekend doubleheader of two Cup Series races here over the next two days, this race has been shortened to 312 miles consisting of 156 laps.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who has the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +825 to win this race. Blaney was in great form earlier this summer but 20th place finishes at Kansas and New Hampshire have been step backs for the #12 Ford car. But Blaney won earlier at Talledega while consistently having one of the fastest cars on tour this year. Restarts have ruined many of Blaney’s efforts this season with him getting passed early — but he should benefit from the repaved surface limiting crashes and restarts. Goodyear is issuing the same tires as they did for the races in Las Vegas, Kentucky, and Texas for this race. Blaney leads the field in average racing position, fastest laps run, most laps led, and driver rating for those races. And while he has never won this race, he has three top-tens including a 3rd place result in 2017. Ford cars have won here in each of the last four races — and he drew a prime starting position at #4 which should help him be in a strong position all afternoon. Blaney is linked with Brad Keselowski in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Keselowski comes off a victory last week in New Hampshire —and Team Penske signed him to a contract extension this week. He may be due for an emotional letdown for this race and the long weekend in Michigan. Keselowski has never won on this track while ranking just 11th in average finish here since 2017. Take Blaney (7522) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Keselowski (7521). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-08-20 |
Kurt Busch -150 v. Alex Bowman |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Michigan this week to the Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn. This is an intermediate 2-mile oval track that was repaved in 2012. With the weekend doubleheader of two Cup Series races here over the next two days, this race has been shortened to 312 miles consisting of 156 laps.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Kurt Busch who Bovada lists at +2800 to win this race. Busch had finished in the top-nine in Kansas and Texas before falling back to 17th place last week in New Hampshire. The veteran has been a model of consistency with twelve top-ten results in his nineteen races since the beginning of March. He also has a nice track history at the Michigan International Speedway with three career victories and a 2nd place finish last year for the June race. Busch is linked with Alex Bowman in head-to-head betting propositions. Bowman won in California earlier this season but has only six top-ten finishes in his next eighteen races. His 15th place result last week in New Hampshire was his third-best result in his last six races (with the best being just an 8th place finish). Bowman’s track history here is not stellar either where he has never finished better than 10th place. Since 2017, Bowman is 13th in the field in average finish at this track while Busch ranks 5th in average finish with this field during the time. Take Kurt Busch (7449) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowman (7450). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-08-20 |
Joey Logano -155 v. Aric Almirola |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Michigan this week to the Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn. This is an intermediate 2-mile oval track that was repaved in 2012. With the weekend doubleheader of two Cup Series races here over the next two days, this race has been shortened to 312 miles consisting of 156 laps.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Joey Logano who is listed at +750 at Bovada. Logano is in great form right now with 4th place showing last week in New Hampshire after a 3rd place finish in Texas two races ago. Logano finished 35th in the middle race in Kansas after suffering a crash. Logano had two wins on intermediate tracks before the stoppage to begin the calendar year in Las Vegas and Phoenix. He has a great track record at Michigan where he has three career victories inlacing last year. In both races at Michigan last year, Logano led for 163 and 52 laps. Logano also drew the pole position for this race. Drivers starting at the pole position have won 20% of the races on the Cup Series this year. And pole position is important on this repaved track where ties are less likely to blow out — so there are fewer opportunities to pass drivers from the restarts. Logano is matched with Aric Almirola in head-to-head betting propositions. Almirola comes off a 7th place finish last week in New Hampshire. But Almirola has only one top-ten finish in his last five races here in Michigan since 2017. He is just 17th in average finishing position here during that span. Take Logano (7539) versus Almirola (7540) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-02-20 |
Martin Truex Jr +108 v. Brad Keselowski |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
After a ten-day break, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to action this afternoon at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. This is an intermediate oval track at 1.058 miles. This is a flat track that will make passing difficult given its tight corners. The tour is returning to the 2018 horsepower package for this event with a lower downforce so last year’s results here are probably less illuminating than the 2018 data. This race compares most closely to the Phoenix Open which before the stoppage in action since that was also an intermediate track with a flat surface while requiring a 750 horsepower package.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Martin Truex, Jr. who is listed at +725 to win this event according to Bovada. Truex is in good form coming off a 3rd place finish at Kansas ten days ago after finishing in 2nd place in Kentucky on July 12th. Truex thrives on intermediate tracks with his ten wins on those courses being tops on the circuit. Truex also won at Martinsville Speedway in June which required the 750 horsepower package. He has a great track record at New Hampshire where he has the top average finish along with having the most laps led in the three races here since 2017. Truex was dominant in the 2018 race here where he’d have the second most laps led while earning the best driver rating. Truex is linked with Brad Keselowski in head-to-head betting propositions. Keselowski has vulture two wins on the tour this year but his car has rarely been one of the fastest in these events. There is no question that Keselowski is a savvy driver who has been inside the top-ten in his last five races. But Keselowski has just an average finish of 13.2 on intermediate tracks since 2017 — and his driver rating of 94.7 on intermediate tracks is far below the driver rating of 110.6 that Truex enjoys on intermediate tracks. Keselowski has averaged just a 13.75 average finish here at New Hampshire in his last four races here. Take Truex (7523) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Keselowski. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
08-02-20 |
Joey Logano +100 v. Chase Elliott |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
After a ten-day break, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to action this afternoon at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. This is an intermediate oval track at 1.058 miles. This is a flat track that will make passing difficult given its tight corners. The tour is returning to the 2018 horsepower package for this event with a lower downforce so last year’s results here are probably less illuminating than the 2018 data. This race compares most closely to the Phoenix Open which before the stoppage in action since that was also an intermediate track with a flat surface while requiring a 750 horsepower package.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Joey Logano who Bovada lists at +1100 odds to win this race. Logano has two-top five results at races with the 750 horsepower package including a victory in Phoenix which is the race most similar to this one given its flat mile track. Logano has struggled this year but many of those races have required the 550 horsepower package. Logano finished 7th at the NASCAR All-Star Race before earning a 3rd place result in Texas before a disappointing 35th last time out in Kansas. Logano finished in 9th place here for the 2018 race. Logano has won at New Hampshire twice with five top-fives in his career here. Logano is linked with Erick Jones for head-to-head betting propositions. Jones comes off a 5th place result last week in Kansas — and he has two top-tens here in New Hampshire. But Jones has finished outside the top-ten in nine of his last fourteen races. I do worry that driving for Joe Gibbs Racing leaves him as an afterthought to Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex. Logano along with Brad Keselowski are the two bell cows for Team Penske. And Jones has just a 16th average finish at New Hampshire in his four races since 2017. Take Logano (7535) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Jones (7536). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-23-20 |
Ryan Blaney -105 v. Chase Elliott |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
The Super Start Batteries 400 takes place at the Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. This will be under the lights tonight which will make the recent results at the NASCAR All-Star Race last week along with the two races in Charlotte back in May. The Kansas Speedway is a smooth 1.5-mile track that has been recently resurfaced so it compares to the recent races in Kentucky and Homestead — this is the third straight 1.5-mile race that with a smooth surface. The moderate banking at this course is also similar to the tracks in Kentucky and Homestead.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +600. At first, glance, seeing Blaney listed at +600 had me look elsewhere since he was consistently being offered as a double-digit dog eleven days ago. I have loved Blaney at those prices with him being our consistent Top Overlay Bets over the last month. In the five races this season on smooth 1.5-mile tracks this season, Blaney has the best average finish along with the best driver rating, and the most fastest laps. Our support has been justified. Frankly, Blaney was robbed last week from winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 in Texas where he led for 150 laps of that race while winning Stage One and Two. A rookie mistake by Quin Houff triggered a wreck in the pit area which required a late caution flag just after Blaney had made his final pit stop — so he was relegated to back of the pack while Austin Dillon’s Hail Mary to keep driving on old tires was rewarded. Blaney did win at Talledega this year — and his 7th place finish last week snapped his five-race top-five run at 1.5-mile tracks. After considering the other drivers, I can’t quit Blaney tonight even at this price. He has led the field in average green flag speed in three of the last five 1.5-mile races with low to minimal track wear. And he has a strong track record here at Kansas with three of his six starts resulting in top-seven results. He got caught up in trouble in two of those races — so avoiding bad luck would have seen him with top-seven or better results in five of those six races. Blaney had the fastest car last Sunday in Texas — I suspect that carries over tonight for Team Penske for a crew that will be anxious to finally get a second victory this season. Blaney is linked with Chase Elliott in head-to-head propositions tonight. Elliott does not do his best driving on 1.5-mile tracks as he has only two victories since 2017 on intermediate racecourses. Elliott won the NASCAR All-Star Race last Wednesday at Bristol but that is a short 1/2 mile track. Besides last week in Bristol, Elliott has not been doing his best racing. He finished in 12th place on Sunday at the Texas Motor Speedway after a 23rd place in Kentucky and an 11th place at the Brickyard. Elliott has only two top-ten finishes in his last six races — so his recent average finishes have not been nearly as good as Blaney. Take Blaney (7627) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Elliott (7628). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-23-20 |
Denny Hamlin +105 v. Chase Elliott |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
105 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
The Super Start Batteries 400 takes place at the Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. This will be under the lights tonight which will make the recent results at the NASCAR All-Star Race last week along with the two races in Charlotte back in May. The Kansas Speedway is a smooth 1.5-mile track that has been recently resurfaced so it compares to the recent races in Kentucky and Homestead — this is the third straight 1.5-mile race that with a smooth surface. The moderate banking at this course is also similar to the tracks in Kentucky and Homestead.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Denny Hamlin who Bovada lists at +700 to win this race. Hamlin was in a position to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 as he was in a late duel chasing Ryan Blaney as both made their final pit stop. Then rookie Quin Houff prompted a crash in the pit area which produced a caution flag which relegated Hamlin and Blaney to the back behind a handful of other drivers including the eventual winner in Austin Dillon who was rewarded for driving on wearing tires since he was able to take his pit stop during the caution. That Hail Mary pass was rewarded this time — but Hamlin remains 2nd on the Cup Series in points with his four victories tied with Kevin Harvick this year (who I consider unplayable at +400 odds for this race). Hamlin won the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway on a smooth 1.5-mile track with moderate banking — so he is primed to do well under these racing conditions. Hamlin has two victories at this event in 2012 and then last fall where he led for 153 laps en route to the win. He has not finished worst than 16th place in his last five starts here. He has been snake-bit when racing here at night with an average finish of 23.3 as compared to his 7.3 average finish in his last six races here during the day. I suspect that is more of an aberration than representing any concerns about Hamlin driving at night. Hamlin did finish in 2nd place under the lights in the last race that took place in Charlotte back in May. Hamlin is linked with Chase Elliott in head-to-head propositions tonight. Elliott does not do his best driving on 1.5-mile tracks as he has only two victories since 2017 on intermediate racecourses. Elliott won the NASCAR All-Star Race last Wednesday at Bristol but that is a short 1/2 mile track. Besides last week in Bristol, Elliott has not been doing his best racing. He finished in 12th place on Sunday at the Texas Motor Speedway after a 23rd place in Kentucky and an 11th place at the Brickyard. Elliott has only two top-ten finishes in his last six races — so his recent average finishes have not been nearly as good as Hamlin who has five top-five finishes with two victories in his last eight starts. Take Hamlin (7621) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Elliott (7622). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-23-20 |
Kurt Busch -135 v. Jimmie Johnson |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
The Super Start Batteries 400 takes place at the Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas. This will be under the lights tonight which will make the recent results at the NASCAR All-Star Race last week along with the two races in Charlotte back in May. The Kansas Speedway is a smooth 1.5-mile track that has been recently resurfaced so it compares to the recent races in Kentucky and Homestead — this is the third straight 1.5-mile race that with a smooth surface. The moderate banking at this course is also similar to the tracks in Kentucky and Homestead.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Busch who Bovada lists at +2600 odds. Busch lacks a victory in 2020 but he has been remarkably consistent. His 8th place finish last week at Texas was his eleventh top-ten finish in his last sixteen starts. Busch also has four top-five results — so maybe he just needs a break to vulture a victory like Austin Dillon did last week. Busch has a 9th overall ranking for average speed at the finish line for low to minimal tire wear tracks at 1 1/2 miles. He returns to the Kansas Motor Speedway where he has four top-ten finishes in his last five starts with a 4th and 7th place result in the two races here last year. Kurt Busch is linked with Jimmie Johnson in head-to-head betting propositions. The dream of Johnson winning one more race in his swan song season seems to be drifting away. He finished just 26th last week in Texas. Since a 7th place result in Atlanta, Johnson has not finished in better than 10th place in eight straight races. On similar smooth 1.5-mile tracks, Johnson settled with a 16th place finish at Homestead and 18th place in Kentucky. The Kansas Motor Speedway has not been his favorite track in his illustrious career with it ranking just 10th in terms of average finish. While he finished in 10th and 6th place in his two races here last year, those were his only two top-ten results at Kansas since 2017. Take Kurt Busch (7655) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Johnson (7656). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-20 |
Denny Hamlin -110 v. Chase Elliott |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 takes place this afternoon at the Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas. This is a 1.5-mile intermediate course. The track should be smooth with it recently resurfaced and reconfigured with lower banks in 2017. The races at the Kentucky Speedway last Sunday, as well as Las Vegas earlier in the season, offer good comparable for this race since those were also 1.5-mile tracks with the same tire combination and 550 horsepower racing package as here at the Texas Motor Speedway.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who is listed at +575 to win this race. Hamlin should be racing with a chip on his shoulder today after following up a lackluster (for him) 12th place finish last Sunday at the Quaker State 400 at the Kentucky Motor Speedway with a 5th place result for Wednesday night’s NASCAR All-Star Race. Frankly, Hamlin looked destined to win two weeks at the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis being in the lead with just seven laps to go before his right tire blew that ended his race. That was another tough-luck loss for us (we lost the Coca-Cola 600 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in May when a late caution flag ruined Chase Elliott’s lead with just three laps left as he was forced to take a pit stop to ruin his potential +650 payout). Hamlin is tied with Kevin Harvick with four wins on the Cup Series tour this year — and he has nine top-five finishes in 2020. Three of Hamlin’s victories this season have been on intermediate tracks with the 550 horsepower package — so this race gets back to his comfort zone after Wednesday's race that required the 775 horsepower for that short 1/2 mile track. Hamlin had finished in the top-five in five of his last eight races along with six of these last ten races. He won the second race at Pocono three weeks ago and he won the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway a month ago — so there is no question he is still in good form. The conventional wisdom is that it is Harvick and him who are the two fastest drivers on the Cup Series right now. I saw Hamlin outduel Harvick last week before struck by the Gods with that right tire. With Hamlin now just one of the top-four favorites, but Harvick priced at the ridiculous underlay of +275 (at Bovada), I love his value. He is effective on intermediate tracks with three victories in his last eleven events when on 1.5-mile tracks with 304 combined laps in the lead over that span. Hamlin also three victories on the Cup Series in Texas including last spring’s event here at the Texas Motor Speedway. Hamlin is linked with Chase Elliott in head-to-head betting propositions. Elliott may be due for an emotional letdown after accomplishing one of his career highs on Wednesday by winning the NASCAR All-Star Race. Elliott tends to perform better on the shorter tracks — he was poised to win the Supermarket Heroes 500 before getting bumped in the final three laps in that race back on May 31st which cost him at least a top-three finish. Elliott’s 4th place finish at the Pocono 350 had been his only top-ten finish in his previous five races before Wednesday. Elliott finished just 32nd and 13th in the two races in Texas last year — and he has not enjoyed a result better than 6th at the Texas Motor Speedway on the Cup Series tour in the last three years. Take Hamlin (7613) versus Elliott (7614) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-19-20 |
Joey Logano v. Ryan Blaney -140 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
The O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 takes place this afternoon at the Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas. This is a 1.5-mile intermediate course. The track should be smooth with it recently resurfaced and reconfigured with lower banks in 2017. The races at the Kentucky Speedway last Sunday, as well as Las Vegas earlier in the season, offer good comparable for this race since those were also 1.5-mile tracks with the same tire combination and 550 horsepower racing package as here at the Texas Motor Speedway.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +800 to win this race. Blaney followed up a 6th place finish last Sunday at the Quaker State 400 with another 6th place result at the All-Star Race at Bristol on Wednesday. Blaney did not finish two weeks at the Brickyard to settle with an uninspiring 32nd finish — but he was, once again, in the hunt. Blaney’s Ford card for Team Penske has been one of the fastest on the tour this season. He was unlucky three weeks ago to finish in 12th and 22nd place in the two races at Pocono despite generating the 5th most laps in the lead over those two races. Blaney had rattled-off four top-five finishes in five straight races before these last five events — including a victory at the Talledega Superspeedway in mid-June. I am not getting off the Blaney bandwagon with him producing five straight top-six results at 1.5-mile race tracks. He was given the 2nd best driver rating on Wednesday in Kentucky while posting the 2nd most laps led and posting the best average running position in that race. Blaney was poised to win the 1.5-mile race in Las Vegas as well before a late caution flag compelled his crew chief to have him hit the pit stop which spoiled his chances. Blaney has the fastest average speed at the green flag on the Cup Series for low to minimal tire wear tracks. He also has two top-five finishes at this track in Texas. Blaney is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions for this event. Logano won two of the first four races to kick off the 2020 Cup Series — but he has been slumping ever since the return to driving in May after to the two-month stoppage. Logano’s 7th place finish at Bristol at the All-Star Race was his best result in seven races. In his fourteen races since the return to action, Logano has only finished inside the top-ten just four times. Logano is better with the 750 horsepower race package so his top-ten result on Wednesday is not surprising. Yet he remains winless in his last eleven races with the 550 horsepower package he will be using for this race. Take Blaney (7636) versus Logano (7635) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-15-20 |
Kevin Harvick v. Denny Hamlin -105 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR All-Star Race moved to the Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee because of rescheduling due to COVID-19 after taking place at the Charlotte Motor Speedway since 1986. The race will be under the lights but the stakes remain high with the winner getting a $1 million check. Racing a Bristol means a short 0.533-mile track with 650 foot long straightaways. Twenty drivers will take part with sixteen winners from the 2019-20 season along with the three group stage winners from a preliminary race today and one driver chosen from a fan vote (who will probably be Bubba Wallace). This will be a quick race with just 140 laps. The race package will be for 750 horsepower with smaller spoilers which is also the package for the Cup Series races at Phoenix and Martinsville along with the previous race here at Bristol at the end of May.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who Bovada lists at +600 to win this race. Hamlin comes off a 17th place finish on Sunday at the Quaker State 400. But Hamlin still has four victories on the Cup Series in 2020 which is tied for the most on the tour. Hamlin finished in 17th place earlier this year at Bristol but he did hold a lead for 131 laps of that race. He has two career wins on this short track along with another nine top-five results. Hamlin also won the 2015 NASCAR All-Star Race. Hamlin is linked with Kevin Harvick for head-to-head betting propositions. Harvick is tied with Hamlin with four wins on the Cup Series this year. He comes off a 4th place finish last Sunday at the Quaker State 400. Harvick does not do his best driving with the 750 horsepower package — he finished 11th at Bristol earlier this season while also finishing 15th at Martinsville in the last race requiring this package. Harvick has won at Bristol twice in his career — but I look for Hamlin to best him tonight. Harvick settled for just 39th and 13th places at Bristol last year. Take Hamlin (7952) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Harvick. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-15-20 |
Brad Keselowski +100 v. Ryan Blaney |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR All-Star Race moved to the Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee because of rescheduling due to COVID-19 after taking place at the Charlotte Motor Speedway since 1986. The race will be under the lights but the stakes remain high with the winner getting a $1 million check. Racing a Bristol means a short 0.533-mile track with 650 foot long straightaways. Twenty drivers will take part with sixteen winners from the 2019-20 season along with the three group stage winners from a preliminary race today and one driver chosen from a fan vote (who will probably be Bubba Wallace). This will be a quick race with just 140 laps. The race package will be for 750 horsepower with smaller spoilers which is also the package for the Cup Series races at Phoenix and Martinsville along with the previous race here at Bristol at the end of May.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Brad Keselowski who Bovada lists at +900 to win this race. Keselowski won here at Bristol in May which was his third victory on this race track in his career. He has led a remarkable 812 laps in his career on this small track in twenty-one starts — so he is very comfortable. Keselowski is also good with this 750 horsepower package after registering a 3rd place finish at Martinsville on May 31st along with a solid 11th place finish at Phoenix. Keselowski is linked with Ryan Blaney in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Blaney has been driving one of the fastest cars on the circuit this year in his Ford for Team Penske. But the short straightaways will not let his car get going like the longer 1 1/2 mile or 2-mile tracks. Blaney finished in last after a crash at Bristol earlier this year — he is not the most adept driver on the circuit. He also finished in 37th place at Phoenix with the same 750 horsepower package. Take Keselowski (7965) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Blaney. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-12-20 |
Denny Hamlin -125 v. Martin Truex Jr |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. This is a relatively new race on the Cup Series circuit with its inaugural race in 2011. The surface was replaced in 2016 to make it one of the smoothest tracks on the tour with its relative ease on tires. With a 1.5-mile oval race track, this intermediate course compares closest to the tracks at the Las Vegas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway with its same length along with the less ominous driving surface.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who Bovada lists at +550 to win this race. Hamlin looks destined to win last week at the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis being in the lead with just seven laps to go before his right tire blew that ended his race. That was another tough-luck loss for us (we lost the Coca-Cola 600 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in May when a late caution flag ruined Chase Elliott’s lead with just three laps left as he was forced to take a pit stop to ruin his potential +650 payout) — we are due a vulture victory one of these weeks from the Regression Gods in what remains a profitable NASCAR campaign, just sayin.’ I like taking drivers (and driving teams) come off a frustrating loss — Joe Gibbs Racing certainly has some issues to address given their tire issues last week. JGR is a top-notch group who should address the problems — and there is a good argument to be had that Hamlin has been the best driver on the tour this year. Hamlin is tied with last week’s winner in Kevin Harvick with four wins on the Cup Series tour this year — and he has nine top-five finishes in 2020. Hamlin had finished in the top-five in five of his last six races along with six of these last eight races before last week’s ill-fortune. He won the second race at Pocono two weeks ago and he won the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway a month ago — so there is no question he is in form. The conventional wisdom is that it is Harvick and him who are the two fastest drivers on the Cup Series right now. I saw Hamlin outduel Harvick last week before struck by the Gods with that right tire. With Hamlin now just one of the top-four favorites, I love his value. He is effective on intermediate tracks with three victories in his last ten events when on 1.5-mile tracks with 304 combined laps in the lead over that span. Hamlin also has four top-fives here at the Kentucky Speedway with an average finish of 8.6 in his last five trips at this course. Hamlin is linked with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex has won here twice in the last three years here for this race. But Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs’ teammate is not in good form right now. A spark plug malfunction early last week ended Truex’s day prematurely for a 38th place finish out of the forty driver field. Truex won in Martinsville earlier this season after the restart but he has only one result inside the top-ten since that triumph in his last five races. And if things are close between these two drivers, it is Hamlin who is better positioned to win the Cup Series championship so he will likely be given the benefit of the doubt in close strategic decisions. Take Hamlin (7615) versus Truex (7616) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-12-20 |
Joey Logano -125 v. Ryan Blaney |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. This is a relatively new race on the Cup Series circuit with its inaugural race in 2011. The surface was replaced in 2016 to make it one of the smoothest tracks on the tour with its relative ease on tires. With a 1.5-mile oval race track, this intermediate course compares closest to the tracks at the Las Vegas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway with its same length along with the less ominous driving surface.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +1000 to win this race. Blaney did not finish last week at the Brickyard to settle with an uninspiring 32nd finish — but he was, once again, in the hunt. Blaney’s Ford card for Team Penske has been one of the fastest on the tour this season. He was unlucky two weeks ago to finish in 12th and 22nd place in the two races at Pocono despite generating the 5th most laps in the lead over those two races. Blaney had rattled-off four top-five finishes in five straight races before these last three events — including a victory at the Talledega Superspeedway in mid-June. Blaney has finished in the top-thirteen in his last three races at the Kentucky Speedway including a 2nd place finish in 2018 — so he will be very comfortable racing here. Blaney is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions for this event. Logano comes off a 10th place result last week at the Brickyard. But Logano has been a disappointment overall for Team Penske after opening the season with two victories in the first four events. His 10th place finish last week was his best result in his last five races. And in his twelve races since the return to action, Logano has only finished inside the top-ten just three times. Take Blaney (7625) versus Logano (7626) in head-to-head betting propositions. Bst of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-12-20 |
Aric Almirola -145 v. Clint Bowyer |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
07-12-20 |
William Byron v. Aric Almirola -135 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. This is a relatively new race on the Cup Series circuit with its inaugural race in 2011. The surface was replaced in 2016 to make it one of the smoothest tracks on the tour with its relative ease on tires. With a 1.5-mile oval race track, this intermediate course compares closest to the tracks at the Las Vegas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway with its same length along with the less ominous driving surface.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver who is outside the top-ten favorites to win this race is on Aric Almirola who Bovada lists at +2800 to win this race. I will throw a flyer on this Stewart-Haas driver who has finished in the top-five in five straight NASCAR Cup Series races after his 3rd place finish last week. Almirola has yet to win a race this year — but three 3rd places in his last four races are awfully close. The Stewart-Haas Racing team would love to push him to a victory. He was rated as the 6th best driver at this race last year — and he finished in 8th place last year. Almirola is also in a nice 4th starting position for this race. Almirola is linked with William Byron for head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Byron has not been able to put together a complete race for Hendrick Motor Sports this year. He finished in 27th place last week. Byron has just four top-ten finishes in his twelve races since the return to action with his best result being a 7th place on the Sunday two weeks ago for the Pocono 350. This is his third Cup Series race at the Kentucky Motor Speedway after middling 18th and 20th place results in the last two years. And he starts far behind Almirola in the 21st position. Take Almirola (7627) versus Byron (7665) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-05-20 |
Martin Truex Jr v. Denny Hamlin -175 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
The Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 — more commonly referred to as the Brickyard 400 — takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This 2.5-mile rectangular oval track will require 160 laps to reach this 400-mile race. This race tends to see fewer lead changes so starting position will play an important role. This event also requires a similar aero package as last weekend’s two races at the Pocono Raceway so last week’s results will help inform my selections.
Our Best Bet is on Denny Hamlin who is listed at +550 to win this race. Hamlin was my Best Bet to win the Saturday race at Pocono last weekend where he finished 2nd. I got off him on Sunday because I loved Kyle Busch in that situation (finally getting the opportunity for de-facto practice time on the racetrack that has been eliminated this season due to COVID-19 precautions). Busch looked primed to win that race before a late crash ruined his day — and that allowed Hamlin to follow up his 2nd place run by winning the Pocono 350. Hamlin now leads the NASCAR Cup Series with four wins in 2020 while being able to make the case that he is enjoying the best season on this year’s tour. He has won two of his last four races with his victory at the Homestead-Miami Speedway three weeks ago. Hamlin has now finished in the Top-Five in five of his last six races along with six of his last eight races. Hamlin still lacks a Cup Series championship along with a victory at the famed Brickyard — but a win this afternoon maybe the feather in his cap that sets up to later win the NASCAR Cup Series to accomplish both those goals. Hamlin is linked with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Truex won at the Martinsville Speedway last month but has only finished inside the top-ten once in his next four races with a 6th place result last Saturday at Pocono. Truex has struggled at the Brickyard where he finished in the top-ten only three times in fifteen starts with a subpar 21.33 average finish in those fifteen races. Truex was just 27th at the Brickyard last year after suffering a crash the previous year when he finished 40th. With Hamlin being the premier driver for Joe Gibbs Racing right now, he will likely be given any accommodations in this race if those opportunities arise between teammates. Take Hamlin (7616) in head-to-head betting props versus Truex (7615). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
07-05-20 |
Martin Truex Jr v. Ryan Blaney -130 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
The Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 — more commonly referred to as the Brickyard 400 — takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This 2.5-mile rectangular oval track will require 160 laps to reach this 400-mile race. This race tends to see fewer lead changes so starting position will play an important role. This event also requires a similar aero package as last weekend’s two races at the Pocono Raceway so last week’s results will help inform my selections.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +1000 to win this race. Blaney underachieved last weekend with 12th and 22nd place finishes at Pocono — but he also registered the 5th-most fastest laps in the field in those races. Blaney was a bit unlucky in those races which help improves his price this week which is exactly the type of situation we are looking for with this Overlay Bet. Blaney had been perhaps the hottest driver on the Cup Series tour with five top-four finishes in his previous six races including a 1st place at the Talledega Superspeedway two weeks ago. Blaney’s Ford has been one of the fastest cars all season for Team Penske. These 2.5-mile superspeedway events reward the fastest cars with the additional straightaway track to push the pedal to the metal. And Blaney’s average finish at the Brickyard has been 9th since he joined Team Penske. Blaney finished 7th here last year while posting the second-most laps with the lead. Blaney is linked with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex won at the Martinsville Speedway last month but has only finished inside the top-ten once in his next four races with a 6th place result last Saturday at Pocono. Truex has struggled at the Brickyard where he finished in the top-ten only three times in fifteen starts with a subpar 21.33 average finish in those fifteen races. Truex was just 27th at the Brickyard last year after suffering a crash the previous year when he finished 40th. Take Blaney (7620) in head-to-head betting props versus Truex (7619). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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07-05-20 |
Clint Bowyer -120 v. William Byron |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
TThe Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 — more commonly referred to as the Brickyard 400 — takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. This 2.5-mile rectangular oval track will require 160 laps to reach this 400-mile race. This race tends to see fewer lead changes so starting position will play an important role. This event also requires a similar aero package as last weekend’s two races at the Pocono Raceway so last week’s results will help inform my selections.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Clint Bowyer who Bovada lists at +3300 odds to win this race. Bowyer has been a fade for me most of the summer with him earning just one top-ten finish in nine straight races going into Pocono. But the Stewart-Haas driver had a good weekend with 7th and 8th place finishes in the two races at Pocono. Bowyer has a fast Ford Mustang — and he is a specialist on-road tracks like at the Brickyard which will require the same aerodynamic and tire setups this week. Bowyer likes driving on this racecourse with two straight top-five finishes. He led for 37 laps in 2018 so he is comfortable in the lead. Bowyer is linked with William Byron in head-to-head betting propositions. Byron has not been able to put together a complete race in 2020. Byron’s 7th place finish on Sunday at Pocono was his best result in his last fifteen races. Byron did finish in 4th place here last year but this is still just his third race on the Cup Series for the young driver. He drives a Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports — and a Chevy as not won this race since 2014 after a dominant eleven-year run. Take Bowyer (7657) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Byron (7658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-20 |
Alex Bowman v. Kurt Busch -135 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
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The Pocono Organics 350 is the second of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway after the Pocono Organics 325 took place yesterday at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race with that streak continuing yesterday with Kevin Harvick winning after a starting position in the #9 spot. The top-twenty finishers yesterday determined the starting position in reverse order for this afternoon’s race with twenty more laps the 120 laps for yesterday’s race.The Pocono Organics 350 is the second of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway after the Pocono Organics 325 took place yesterday at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race with that streak continuing yesterday with Kevin Harvick winning after a starting position in the #9 spot. The top-twenty finishers yesterday determined the starting position in reverse order for this afternoon’s race with twenty more laps the 120 laps for yesterday’s race.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Busch who is listed at +2200 at Bovada as of this writing to win this race. The elder Busch brother was our Long Shot yesterday — and after flirting with a top-ten finish yesterday, he drifted back to finish in 18th place. Frankly, I think the veteran sandbagged a bit by the end of that race as he now grabs the enviable #3 starting position today. Don’t be surprised if Busch has a lead for much of this race today before going into the final stage of the race. Busch has been remarkably consistent this season with his 9th place finish on Monday at the Talladega Superspeedway being his ninth top-ten result in his (now) last twelve Cup Series races. With thirty-one Cup Series wins in his long career, he is always dangerous to pull out a victory — especially under volatile conditions. He certainly is well-versed on this triangle race track with three victories here in 2005, 2007, and 2016 along with 2nd place finishes in 2002, 2003, twice in 2006, and 2011. Busch starts in the #7th position this afternoon so he has a favorable starting slot. Busch is linked with Alex Bowman in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Bowman finished in a disappointing 27th place yesterday which slots him then in the undesirable 27th starting position today. It has been a subpar season for Bowman with just two top-ten finishes in his last nine races since a 2nd place finish at the Darlington 400 in the first Cup Series event since the return to action last month. Bowman has not finished better than 6th place over those last nine events. Bowman’s best result at Pocono’s tricky triangle was a 3rd place in the fall of 2018 — but he has not done better than 15th place in his other four races here after yesterday. Take Kurt Busch (7856) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowman (7855). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-20 |
Kyle Busch -135 v. Martin Truex Jr |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Pocono Organics 350 is the second of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway after the Pocono Organics 325 took place yesterday at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race with that streak continuing yesterday with Kevin Harvick winning after a starting position in the #9 spot. The top-twenty finishers yesterday determined the starting position in reverse order for this afternoon’s race with twenty more laps the 120 laps for yesterday’s race.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Kyle Busch who Bovada lists at +400 as of this writing to take 1st place. Frankly, I don’t love the short odds on Busch — but I love the situation for him in this spot. We have built up some bankroll with three victories on the NASCAR Cup Series since the return to action so I am going to take some liberties in taking a 4-1 favorite as an exception to my general rules. Busch is the reigning Cup Series champion but he has yet to win on the tour this year. I think he is the driver that has been most impacted by the lack of practice time on the courses given COVID-19 precautions. While Busch finished a respectable 5th place yesterday, I think that race served as a de-facto practice session with his Joe Gibbs Racing team who tends to dominate here. Busch is also the driver who may be most comfortable racing on back-to-back days as he still takes part in the NASCAR Truck series events which have required him to race in back-to-back days. Busch has won three of the last six races here at the Pocono Raceway — and he was the best driver at the two NASCAR Cup Series events here in 2019 which included him winning the spring race. And it is not like Busch is slumping this year — he has now posted seven top-five finishes this season after yesterday while finishing in 6th place or better in four of his last six races. I think he wins his first event on the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series this afternoon with the benefit of the experience of yesterday’s race. He does start in the #16 position but there are a number of slower cars ahead of him that finished behind him yesterday. Busch is lined with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex finished in 6th place yesterday so he is starting from the #15 position today. Truex has two career wins on this course but his recent history is not encouraging. He finished in 35th place last year which was the eighth time in his last fourteen starts at Pocono Raceway where he finished no better than 15th place. Truex has not been in great form as of late either after winning at the Martinsville Speedway. He finished a disappointing 24th on Monday at Talladega Superspeedway after a 12th place result in Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Take Kyle Busch (7805) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Truex (7806). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-28-20 |
Ryan Blaney -135 v. Joey Logano |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
The Pocono Organics 350 is the second of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway after the Pocono Organics 325 took place yesterday at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race with that streak continuing yesterday with Kevin Harvick winning after a starting position in the #9 spot. The top-twenty finishers yesterday determined the starting position in reverse order for this afternoon’s race with twenty more laps the 120 laps for yesterday’s race. Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada currently lists at +1000 to win this race. Blaney was our Top Overlay Bet yesterday — and he looked to be in position as he had a top-five car for much of that race before drifting to 12th place by the end of the race. Frankly, I thought Blaney took his foot off the gas pedal late in that race to save energy along with wiggling a better starting position for this race — and that is why I am not backing off him today. Blaney entered the weekend riding high after winning the checkered flag on Monday at the Geico 500 at the Talladega Superspeedway. Blaney’s Ford car racing for Team Penske has been one of the fastest on the NASCAR Cup Series this year — and that remained the case yesterday. Blaney now has six top-four finishes in his last eight starts. Blaney also holds the Pocono Raceway close to his heart as he won his first career win here in 2017. Blaney is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Logano won two of the first four Cup Series races this year — but then COVID-19 stalled his momentum. Since the return to action, Logano has only finished in the top-ten in three of his last nine races. He followed up a 27th place finish at the Dixie Vodka 400 with a 17th place result on Monday at the Talladega Superspeedway. Logano has not shown much at Pocono Raceway as of late either with a 7th and 9th place finish being his top two results in his last seven Cup Series events here before yesterday where he finished a disappointing 36th place — and that result puts him way far behind today starting in the same 36th position as our the negative consequences of not finishing in the top-twenty positions yesterday. Take Blaney (7827) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Logano (7628). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Denny Hamlin -110 v. Martin Truex Jr |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Pocono Organics 325 is the first of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway over the next two days (check back tomorrow for my Pocono Organics 350 Report for Sunday afternoon) at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. The spring race at Pocono Raceway on the Cup Series has been 160 laps since 2012 but is reduced this year to just 130 laps with another 140 laps scheduled for tomorrow. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race. Heavy rain is also expected today — and Pocono Raceway does not have lights so they cannot race into the evening tonight. There is a decent chance that this race will be shortened — at least 65 laps need to be completed for the results to be considered official.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who Bovada lists at +625 as of this writing to take 1st place. Hamlin has a great track record at the Pocono Raceway with five victories in his career on this track including the NASCAR Cup Series event last fall. Joe Gibbs Racing has a fantastic history of success at this event — so Hamlin driving for this team certainly helps this afternoon. Hamlin has perhaps been the best driver on the circuit as of late with three top-five finishes in his last four starts along with four top-fives in his last five starts. Hamlin won the Daytona 500 earlier this year before winning the Darlington 310 and then the Dixie Vodka 400 two weeks ago at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. He followed that up with a 4th place finish last Monday at Talledega Superspeedway. Hamlin also drew the #3 starting position which puts him in a great position to win this race. Hamlin is linked with fellow Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex drew the #11th starting spot which puts him at a disadvantage and perhaps the less important driver for the Gibbs team this afternoon. Truex has two career wins on this course but his recent history is not encouraging. He finished in 35th place last year which was the eighth time in his last thirteen starts at Pocono Raceway where he finished no better than 15th place. Truex has not been in great form as of late either after winning at the Martinsville Speedway. He finished a disappointing 24th on Monday at Talladega Superspeedway after a 12th place result in Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Take Hamlin (7617) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Truex (7618). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Joey Logano v. Ryan Blaney +100 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Pocono Organics 325 is the first of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway over the next two days (check back tomorrow for my Pocono Organics 350 Report for Sunday afternoon) at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. The spring race at Pocono Raceway on the Cup Series has been 160 laps since 2012 but is reduced this year to just 130 laps with another 140 laps scheduled for tomorrow. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race. Heavy rain is also expected today — and Pocono Raceway does not have lights so they cannot race into the evening tonight. There is a decent chance that this race will be shortened — at least 65 laps need to be completed for the results to be considered official.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada currently lists at +1100 to win this race. Blaney is riding high after winning the checkered flag on Monday at the Geico 500 at the Talladega Superspeedway. He drew the covered #2 starting position for this race. Blane’s Ford car racing for Team Penske has been one of the fastest on the NASCAR Cup Series this year — and a truncated race because of rain with his speed and starting position makes him very intriguing this afternoon. Blaney now has six top-four finishes in his last seven starts. Blaney also holds the Pocono Raceway close to his heart as he won his first career win here in 2017. Blaney is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Logano won two of the first four Cup Series races this year — but then COVID-19 stalled his momentum. Since the return to action, Logano has only finished in the top-ten in three of his last nine races. He followed up a 27th place finish at the Dixie Vodka 400 with a 17th place result on Monday at the Talladega Superspeedway. Logano has not shown much at Pocono Raceway as of late either with a 7th and 9th place finish being his top two results in his last seven Cup Series events here. Take Blaney (7634) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Logano (7633). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Kurt Busch -155 v. Clint Bowyer |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
The Pocono Organics 325 is the first of two NASCAR Cup Series races at the Pocono Raceway over the next two days (check back tomorrow for my Pocono Organics 350 Report for Sunday afternoon) at Long Pond, Pennsylvania. The back-to-back regimen for this weekend is not a result of rescheduling due to COVID-19; this challenge is part of the original NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This is a unique track with its tricky triangle with this 2.5-mile course seeing three tight left turns along with a 3740-foot front straightaway. Drivers need to shift more given these sharp turns as compared to how they can handle the more traditional oval courses. The spring race at Pocono Raceway on the Cup Series has been 160 laps since 2012 but is reduced this year to just 130 laps with another 140 laps scheduled for tomorrow. Passing will be difficult given the triangle — only twice in the last twelve years has a driver outside the original top ten positions has won the race. Heavy rain is also expected today — and Pocono Raceway does not have lights so they cannot race into the evening tonight. There is a decent chance that this race will be shortened — at least 65 laps need to be completed for the results to be considered official.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Busch who is listed at +2200 at Bovada as of this writing to win this race. The elder Busch brother has been remarkably consistent this season with his 9th place finish on Monday at the Talladega Superspeedway being his ninth top-ten result in his last eleven Cup Series races. With thirty-one Cup Series wins in his long career, he is always dangerous to pull out a victory — especially under volatile conditions. He certainly is well-versed on this triangle race track with three victories here in 2005, 2007, and 2016 along with 2nd place finishes in 2002, 2003, twice in 2006, and 2011. Busch starts in the #7th position this afternoon so he has a favorable starting slot. Busch is linked with Clint Bowyer in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Bowyer has only one top-ten finish in the nine Cup Series events since the return to action last month. He comes off a disappointing 25th place result on Monday at the Talladega Superspeedway. Bowyer has finished in the top-ten at the Pocono Raceway twice in his last eight starts here over the last four years. And he has drawn the #14th starting position which is not a good sign for him this afternoon. Take Kurt Busch (7664) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowyer (7664). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-20 |
Brad Keselowski -150 v. Alex Bowman |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
The Geico 500 takes place at the Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Arkansas. This will be the first superspeedway race consisting of a course of at least 2.0 miles since the Daytona 500 in February. The famed Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66-mile tri-oval race track the often features three or four cars wide. A Ford car has won the last seven Cup Series races here at Talladega with a Team Penske driver winning five of those races. Because of COVID-19 precautions, the drivers were not allowed to take part in practice runs on this course — so veteran drivers with plenty of experience here will be valued.
Our Best Bet to win this race will be on Brad Keselowski who is listed at Bovada to win this race at +800. Keselowski comes off a 10th place finish last Sunday at the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Keselowski was victorious that previous Wednesday at Martinsville Speedway for his second win since the return to action last month. Keselowski is a Team Penske member driving a Ford car that has been such a great formula for success on this track. Keselowski leads all drivers today with five Cup Series victories at Talladega. Keselowski is linked with Alex Bowman in head-to-head betting propositions. Bowman has struggled since the return of the Cup Series last month. He was expected to do well last week at the Homestead-Miami Speedway given his strong record on intermediate tracks. Instead, Bowman betrayed his +1000 Bovada odds to win (tied for 6th highest) with a disappointing 18th place showing where he never led even one lap. While Bowman was coming off a 6th place showing that previous Wednesday at the Martinsville Speedway, he has finished in 12th place or worse in his six other races over his last seven starts. Bowman enjoyed a 2nd place finish in the spring race at Talladega but followed that up with a frustrating 37th place in last October’s race on this track. Bowman drives a Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports which is not the preferred pedigree given recent history. Take Keselowski (7625) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowman (7626). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-21-20 |
Ryan Blaney -145 v. Kurt Busch |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
The Geico 500 takes place at the Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Arkansas. This will be the first superspeedway race consisting of a course of at least 2.0 miles since the Daytona 500 in February. The famed Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66-mile tri-oval race track the often features three or four cars wide. A Ford car has won the last seven Cup Series races here at Talladega with a Team Penske driver winning five of those races. Because of COVID-19 precautions, the drivers were not allowed to take part in practice runs on this course — so veteran drivers with plenty of experience here will be valued.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +1200 to win this race. Blaney drives a Ford for Team Penske so he fits the template that has been so successful on this track as of late for the Cup Series events. Blaney won the October Cup Series race at Talladega while leading for 35 laps in that event. Blaney’s Ford car has been one of the fastest on the tour since the return to action last month. He has enjoyed five Top-Four finishes over his last six races after his 3rd place finish last Sunday at the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. Blaney also enjoyed a 2nd place result at the Daytona 500 in the most recent superspeedway race. Blaney is linked with Kurt Busch for head-to-head betting propositions. Busch has been one of the most consistent drivers on the Cup Series with eight top-ten finishes in his last ten races this season. But Busch has not registered a victory in that stretch — and he has not finished better than 5th place in his eight races since the return to action. Busch just can’t seem to crack the top-three which may be an indictment of his Chip Ganassi Racing team as being just a notch below the rivals teams like Team Penske. Busch has a solid track record at Talladega but he has not waved the checkered flag in his long career. His Chevrolet finished in 28th place last October. Take Blaney (7635) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Kurt Busch (7636). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
06-21-20 |
Clint Bowyer -120 v. Erik Jones |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
The Geico 500 takes place at the Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Arkansas. This will be the first superspeedway race consisting of a course of at least 2.0 miles since the Daytona 500 in February. The famed Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66-mile tri-oval race track the often features three or four cars wide. A Ford car has won the last seven Cup Series races here at Talladega with a Team Penske driver winning five of those races. Because of COVID-19 precautions, the drivers were not allowed to take part in practice runs on this course — so veteran drivers with plenty of experience here will be valued.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Clint Bowyer who is listed at +2200 to win this race. Bowyer drives for Stewart-Haas Racing — but he will be behind the wheel of a Ford. Bowyer has shown speed this season with a 2nd place finish at Bristol along with a 6th place result at the last superspeedway event at Daytona 500 in February. He is having a roller-coaster of a season — but he is an intriguing option at these odds and an advantageous starting in #10 spot. 72 of the 101 Cup races on this track have been won by a driver slotted in one of the top ten starting positions. Bowyer is linked with Erik Jones in head-to-head betting propositions. Jones drives a Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing — and considering that he is starting in the #18 spot this afternoon, his profile is not consistent with the course history. Jones is mired in a slump this season coming off a 21st place result last week at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Jones did finish in 5th place at Bristol Speedway on the last day of the month in May but that was his only finish inside the top-20 in his last five races. Jones was 19th and 34th in the two races at Talladega last year. Take Bowyer (7659) versus Jones (7660) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Martin Truex Jr -150 v. Chase Elliott |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-150 |
4 h 16 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Homestead, Florida for the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway for a midseason race for the first time since 2002. This event has served as the season finale to the Cup Series in November since that time — it was scheduled for March this year before COVID-19 changed those plans. This is an intermediate 1 1/2 mile oval track. The reconfigured track will run hot under the Miami sun. With 20-degree variable banked turns along with flat straightaways at just three degrees, this track tends to allow for multiple lanes which will allow for plenty of action and lead changes for the thirty-eight drivers competing.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Martin Truex Jr. who Bovada lists at +500 to win this race. Truex had struggled this season as he looked to get in-synch with his new crew chief James Small after his previous chief unexpectedly retired in December. But chemistry seems to have finally been established as Truex followed up a 3rd place last Sunday at the Atlanta Motor Speedway with a victory on Wednesday at the Maximum Pain Relief 500 at the Martinsville Speedway. Those are the top two finishes for Truex driving for Joe Gibbs Racing this season. Truex’s Toyota Camry has now registered seven Top-5 finishes this year — and he thrives on the shorter race tracks. After a horrendous 0-80 start on shorter tracks, Truex has figured it out with four victories in his last six races on shorter tracks including on Wednesday with Martinsville Speedway’s paper clip being just 0.533 miles which is the shortest on the Cup Series circuit. Truex has led for 153 laps this season on 1 1/2 tracks which are the 4th most on all drivers. Truex has also been dominant here at the Homestead-Miami Speedway where he won in 2017 before finishing in 2nd place the last two years. A hot driver with a sensational recent history on this course is too good to pass up. Truex is linked with Chase Elliott in head-to-head betting propositions. Elliott comes off a 5th place finish on Wednesday at Martinsville. Elliott’s top two results this season were at the Charlotte Motor Speedway where he won the Alsco Uniforms 500 evening race after finishing in 3rd place at the Coca-Cola 600. But Elliott has just an average finish of 11.7 in his next three races. He is relatively inexperienced at the Homestead-Miami Speedway with just four starts where he finished outside the top-ten twice. Elliott’s best finish here was in 2017 when he placed 5th — but he has taken a step back since with a 7th place and 15th place results in the last two years. Take Truex (7619) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Elliott (7620). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Kurt Busch -150 v. Erik Jones |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Homestead, Florida for the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway for a midseason race for the first time since 2002. This event has served as the season finale to the Cup Series in November since that time — it was scheduled for March this year before COVID-19 changed those plans. This is an intermediate 1 1/2 mile oval track. The reconfigured track will run hot under the Miami sun. With 20-degree variable banked turns along with flat straightaways at just three degrees, this track tends to allow for multiple lanes which will allow for plenty of action and lead changes for the thirty-eight drivers competing.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Busch who Bovada lists at +2500 to win this race. The older Busch brother has been remarkably consistent this season. His 9th place finish on Wednesday at Martinsville was his fifth straight top-ten finish — and he has finished in the top-ten in eight of his last nine races. Busch has also finished in the top-seven in his last three races at 1 1/2 mile tracks. Can the top driver at Chip Granassi Racing take his game to the next level? He did finish in 3rd place at Darlington since the return to action last month at another intermediate 1 1/3 mile track. The 41-year old is certainly familiar with this course — he won this race in 2002 while also clinching his Cup Series victory here with his 5th place result in 2004. At 25-1, Kurt Busch is well-worth taking the proverbial flyer on. Busch is linked with Erik Jones in head-to-head betting propositions for this event. Jones comes off a 20th place showing at the Martinsville Speedway. He did finish in 5th place at Bristol two Sundays ago but that was a short 1/2 mile track. He finished in 26th place the previous week in Charlotte at 1 1/2 track — and he followed up Bristol with a 28th place result at another 1 1/2 track in Atlanta. So these have been mostly middling results for Jones. He did bring home a 3rd place finish at the Dixie Vodka 400 last year for Joe Gibbs Racing — but this is just his fourth race here after finishing in 21st and 27th place in his first two professional starts here on the Cup Series circuit. Busch is a more consistent driver from week-to-week. Take Kurt Busch (7661) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Jones (7662). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Joey Logano v. Brad Keselowski +110 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
110 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Homestead, Florida for the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway for a midseason race for the first time since 2002. This event has served as the season finale to the Cup Series in November since that time — it was scheduled for March this year before COVID-19 changed those plans. This is an intermediate 1 1/2 mile oval track. The reconfigured track will run hot under the Miami sun. With 20-degree variable banked turns along with flat straightaways at just three degrees, this track tends to allow for multiple lanes which will allow for plenty of action and lead changes for the thirty-eight drivers competing.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Brad Keselowski who is listed at +1000 to win this race at Bovada. Keselowski was our Best Bet to win on Wednesday in the Maximum Pain Relief 500 at the Martinsville Speedway — he finished in 3rd place while outdueling Chase Elliott to win our head-to-head prop bet. Keselowski’s car was just slightly off last week as he was in second place late in that race but backed off for fellow Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney to see if his Ford car could catch up to the eventual winner, Martin Truex. That did not happen — and I do keep in mind that both of Keselowski’s victories on the Cup Series this year have been vulture wins at Bristol and the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte where late mishaps by the leaders opened things up for him to steal the race. But credit Keselowski and his Team Penske to being in the position to win those races — and that makes his 10-1 or so odds for this race so attractive. That victory at the Charlotte Motor Speedway was on a similar 1 1/2 mile track. Keselowski has three top-five finishes here at the Homestead-Miami Speedway in the last six years including two top-three results. Keselowski is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions. Logano comes off a 4th place finish on Wednesday where he led for almost half that race. But Logano’s Ford car could not keep that pace up for Team Penske. Logano started the season on fire with two wins in his four starts before COVID-19 arrived in March. Since the return to action, Logano has not been performing at the same form with zero victories since his triumph in Phoenix. His 4th place result on Wednesday was his first top-five finish since the Cup Series returned. Take Keselowski (7636) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Logano (7635). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-10-20 |
Chase Elliott v. Brad Keselowski -125 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeville, Virginia tonight for the Blue-EMU Maximum Pain Relief 500. This 0.533-mile track is the smallest on the Cup Series circuit. It’s paperclip shaped oval course is tough on brakes with the flat turns and tight confines. Eight of the last nine winners have started in one of the top-ten opening positions — so where the drivers are starting should be an important consideration. This race also requires the same aerodynamic package as the race at Bristol Motor Speedways two Sundays ago back on May 31st which is also a short 1/2 mile track. Martinsville Speedway is a staple on the NASCAR circuit with a spring and fall race on the schedule for years — so there is plenty of recent course history data to consider.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Brad Keselowski who Bovada lists at +550 to win this race. Keselowski has won two races since the return to action last month with victories at the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte as well as taking the checkered flag at the Super Market Heroes 500 at Bristol Motor Speedways on a similar short track. Those were vulture wins where Keselowski benefited from late turmoil from the leaders — but credit his Team Penske for continually putting him in a position to win races. Keselowski should be hungry this week after a 9th place finish on Sunday in Atlanta. He is now 4th in the current Cup Series playoff standings. Keselowski will be racing from the 6th position tonight so he starts in a great position. He has seven top-five finishes in his last eight races on this track which includes two victories in the spring event here in 2017 and 2019. He led in 446 of the 500 laps for his victory here a year ago — and then he followed that up with a 3rd place result last fall. Keselowski is paired with Chase Elliott in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Elliott comes off an 8th place finish in Atlanta last week which was a disappointment since he was our Best Bet to win that event. It has become difficult to ignore that Elliott has not finished in the top three of any of his races since the return to action save for the two races last month at the 1.5-mile course at the Charlotte Motor Speedway. Elliott has subpar finishes this season in Las Vegas where he finished in the 26th place along with Darlington where he finished in 38th place — and his 22nd place at Bristol provides more evidence that he prefers the longer tracks where he can take advantage of his car’s speed than the smaller tracks. Elliott has never won at Martinsville Speedway after finishing in just 36th place last fall. Take Keselowski (7628) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Elliott (7627). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-10-20 |
Erik Jones v. Clint Bowyer -170 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 1 m |
Show
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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeville, Virginia tonight for the Blue-EMU Maximum Pain Relief 500. This 0.533-mile track is the smallest on the Cup Series circuit. It’s paperclip shaped oval course is tough on brakes with the flat turns and tight confines. Eight of the last nine winners have started in one of the top-ten opening positions — so where the drivers are starting should be an important consideration. This race also requires the same aerodynamic package as the race at Bristol Motor Speedways two Sundays ago back on May 31st which is also a short 1/2 mile track. Martinsville Speedway is a staple on the NASCAR circuit with a spring and fall race on the schedule for years — so there is plenty of recent course history data to consider.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Clint Bowyer who Bovada lists at +1800 to win this race. Bowyer finished in 2nd place at the Supermarket Heroes 500 two Sundays ago at the Bristol Motor Speedways which was the shortest track on the circuit before this race. He led for 139 laps in that contest. Bristol requires the same aerodynamics package as Martinsville Speedway. It has been a roller-coaster of a season for #14 Ford car driving for Stewart-Haas Racing. Bowyer finished in 20th place on Sunday in Atlanta — but he gets to drive out of the 4th position tonight. Bowyer has finished in 7th place or better at Martinsville Speedway in his last four trips here including a victory in the spring race in 2018 along with a 3rd place result in the fall of 2017. Bowyer is linked with Eric Jones for head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Jones comes off a middling 28th place finish on Sunday in Atlanta — but he is an intriguing betting option for some after his 5th place finish at the half-mile track at Bristol to end last month. But this driver representing Joe Gibbs Racing has a lackluster recent history on this track. Jones finished in 30th and 20th places in his two races at Martinsville Speedway last year after posting 17th and 26th results in 2018. Take Bowyer (7664) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Jones (7663). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-10-20 |
Kurt Busch -125 v. Alex Bowman |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeville, Virginia tonight for the Blue-EMU Maximum Pain Relief 500. This 0.533-mile track is the smallest on the Cup Series circuit. It’s paperclip shaped oval course is tough on brakes with the flat turns and tight confines. Eight of the last nine winners have started in one of the top-ten opening positions — so where the drivers are starting should be an important consideration. This race also requires the same aerodynamic package as the race at Bristol Motor Speedways two Sundays ago back on May 31st which is also a short 1/2 mile track. Martinsville Speedway is a staple on the NASCAR circuit with a spring and fall race on the schedule for years — so there is plenty of recent course history data to consider.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites is on Kurt Busch who is listed at +2800 to win this race according to Bovada. Busch is one of the most underrated drivers on the NASCAR circuit with his younger brother, Kyle, getting most of the accolades. Yet the older sibling has registered seven top-seven finishes in his last eight NASCAR Cup Series races with a respectable 15th place result at the Toyota 500 last month being the only blemish on that record. Kurt Busch comes off a 6th place finish on Sunday in Atlanta. He also finished a deceptive 7th place at the short 1/2 mile track at Bristol last month — after experiencing trouble early in the race, he may have been the fastest car on the track by the end of that contest to climb all the way back to that result (it pays to watch these races). Busch has a solid course history here at Martinsville with 12th and 6th place finishes last year following up his 11th and 6th place results in 2018. An intangible I like with this Busch is that he races out of Chip Ganassi Racing as their premier driver — so his team will be likely placing all their eggs in his basket. He is starting in the 9th slot tonight. Busch is linked with Alex Bowman in head-to-head betting propositions tonight. Bowman tends to do better on the longer 1 1/2 mile tracks. He finished in 2nd place at Darlington in the return of NASCAR last month — but he then finished no better than 18th place in his net four races before his 12th place result on Sunday in Atlanta. His worst finish since the return last month was at the 1/2 mile track at Bristol Motor Speedways on May 31st. Bowman’s best result at Martinsville is a 7th place finish in the spring of 2018 — he has not finished better than 14th place in his other three races here. Take Kurt Busch (7651) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowman (7652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-07-20 |
Martin Truex Jr v. Chase Elliott -135 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Atlanta Motor Speedway this week for the Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500. The old pavement at this track was last reconfigured in 1997 — this is a bumpy course that eats tires. Driver talent along with tire conservation are two qualities that are important in winning this race. A previous winner on the Cup Series has raced the trophy here in ten of the last eleven races. This 1.54-mile oval track is similar to the courses at Las Vegas and Charlotte earlier this season while requiring a similar aerodynamic package.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Chase Elliott who Bovada lists at +550 to finish in first place. Elliott has been the leader with under 20 laps to go in four straight races — yet his only victory has been at the Alsco Uniforms 500 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway. Elliott has been snake bit with bad luck since the return to action last month. Kyle Busch bumped him late at the Toyota 500 at Darlington on May 20th when he was battling for 2nd place (or better). Elliott was then on the way to victory in Charlotte on May 24th at the Coca-Cola 500 before a late restart compelled his crew chief to hit pit road — and that cost him first place. Elliott then was involved in another bump on Sunday (although he was to blame this time around) in the final three laps of that race when he was battling Joey Logano to win the Super Market Heroes 500. Brad Keselowski has won two races since the return being the beneficiary of these mishaps that Elliott has suffered which goes to show how much good fortune plays a role in who wins the checkered flag. But Elliott had the fastest car in the two races on the 1.5-mile track in Charlotte. Elliott returns to his home state of Georgia where he has the best average career finish in the field at this race track. And he also will be racing from the pole position this afternoon. Elliott is linked with Martin Truex Jr. in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex has not gelled with his new crew chief, James Small, so far this year. His best finish in 2020 remains just a 6th place result at the Coca-Cola 600 and the Real Heroes 400. Truex finished in just 20th place last week at the Super Market Heroes 500. With him still not in-synch with Small, Elliott should outperform him once again this week. Take Elliott (7626) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Truex (7625). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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06-07-20 |
William Byron -160 v. Aric Almirola |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-160 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Atlanta Motor Speedway this week for the Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500. The old pavement at this track was last reconfigured in 1997 — this is a bumpy course that eats tires. Driver talent along with tire conservation are two qualities that are important in winning this race. A previous winner on the Cup Series has raced the trophy here in ten of the last eleven races. This 1.54-mile oval track is similar to the courses at Las Vegas and Charlotte earlier this season while requiring a similar aerodynamic package.
Our Long Shot Bet for a driver outside the top-ten favorites to win this race is on William Byron who Bovada lists at +1800 odds. Byron has been driving one of the fastest cars on the Cup Series since the return to action. Byron had the 4th highest average speed at the Coca-Cola 600 at the 1.5-mile Charlotte Motor Speedway — and then he was generating the fastest average speed a few days later for the Alsco Uniforms 500 in Charlotte before he was hit in pit road which cost him his first-place lead which helped produce his 13th place final result. Byron drives for Hendrick Motorsports which may have been the best crew overall since the return to action last month. Bryon also drives better on hot tracks rather than cooler ones at night — so he should like the simmering asphalt in Hotlanta this afternoon. Byron is linked to Aric Almirola in head-to-head betting propositions. The veteran’s best finish since the return to action was a 7th place result at the Toyota 500 at Darlington last month. Almirola finished 15th at the Coca-Cola 600 but he did not finish at the Alsco Uniforms 500 at the other event last month at the similar 1.5-mile track at Charlotte. The Stewart-Haas driver finished in 29th place last week at the Super Market Heroes 500 at Bristol — and he has not finished better than 12th place outside that Toyota 500 finish since the Cup Series return. Byron is the better driver with the better car right now. Take Byron (7681) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Almirola (7682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-07-20 |
Joey Logano -135 v. Denny Hamlin |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Atlanta Motor Speedway this week for the Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500. The old pavement at this track was last reconfigured in 1997 — this is a bumpy course that eats tires. Driver talent along with tire conservation are two qualities that are important in winning this race. A previous winner on the Cup Series has raced the trophy here in ten of the last eleven races. This 1.54-mile oval track is similar to the courses at Las Vegas and Charlotte earlier this season while requiring a similar aerodynamic package.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the best value relative to their odds is on Joey Logano who Bovada lists at +900. Logano was in the position to win last week at the Super Market Heroes 500 at Bristol before Chase Elliott bumped him in the final three laps. The Team Penske driver looks to bounce back this afternoon while making it a Ford car to win this race for the fourth straight year. While it was teammate Brad Keselowski who won first place last week, Logano was outperforming him before the late crash which allowed him the opportunity to earn the vulture victory. Logano has two victories this season under his belt with wins in Phoenix and the Las Vegas course which is also 1.5-miles with a similar aerodynamic package. Logano leads the Cup Series in playoff points as well. Logano is linked with Denny Hamlin in head-to-head betting propositions. Hamlin has two victories in 2020 — but one of those events was before the Coronavirus stoppage at the Daytona 500 and his second win was in a rain-shortened race at the Toyota 500. We had Hamlin on at Wednesday night on May 20th — but we have been burned in three straight races where our leader/contender blew their late position so this Joe Gibbs driver may have been spared a late disappointment that night. Hamlin is also still without his crew chief, Chris Gabehart, after his car had some of their tungsten weights drop off at the Coca-Cola 600. Hamlin comes off a 17th place finish last week at the Super Market Heroes 500. Take Logano (7645) in head-to-head betting propositions against Hamlin (7646). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-31-20 |
Denny Hamlin v. Joey Logano +110 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
The Food City 500 has been renamed this year the Supermarket Heroes 500. This race takes place at the Bristol Motor Speedways in Bristol, Tennessee. This is a short 1/2 mile track consisting of 500 laps — drivers will have to maneuver through plenty of bumps and chaos to survive. A Toyota car coming out of the team of Joe Gibbs Racing has won this race in four of the last five years.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Joey Logano who Bovada lists at +900 odds. Logano rebounded from a disappointing 13th place showing last Sunday at the Coca-Cola 600 with a 6th place result on Thursday in the Alsco Uniforms 500 for Team Penske. Logano won two of the first four races of the year in Las Vegas and Phoenix before the stoppage in action. The Phoenix victory because its rules package of 750 horsepower along with a reduced downforce package with a shorter spoiler and a shorter splitter overhang will also be in place for this race. Four different drivers have the four races this month in the return — so I like backing a racer looking for a victory with slightly longer odds than the top favorites. Logano has a great course history here at Bristol where he has won the checkered flag twice. He also was the leader after Stage Two in this race last year. Logano is linked with Denny Hamlin in head-to-head propositions. Hamlin has two victories this year including the Toyota 500 two Wednesdays ago. Hamlin also has two career victories on the racetrack — but he struggled in the race in Phoenix with a similar rules package in March where he finished just 20th. Despite the two victories this year, Hamlin has been a bit fortunate as he only led for nine total laps in those two races — and he ranks just 8th in the Cup Series standings going into today. Take Logano (7636) in head-to-head betting propositions against Hamlin (7635). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-31-20 |
Ryan Blaney -150 v. Alex Bowman |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-150 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
The Food City 500 has been renamed this year the Supermarket Heroes 500. This race takes place at the Bristol Motor Speedways in Bristol, Tennessee. This is a short 1/2 mile track consisting of 500 laps — drivers will have to maneuver through plenty of bumps and chaos to survive. A Toyota car coming out of the team of Joe Gibbs Racing has won this race in four of the last five years.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to his odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +900. Blaney should have shorter odds for this race given his recent success along with his course history here at Bristol. Blaney followed up a 3rd place result at the Coca-Cola 600 last Sunday with a 3rd place finish on Thursday in the Alsco Uniforms 500. And he is due for a win here at Bristol after enjoying a lead for 379 combined laps here over his last four races on this track. Blaney has recorded three straight Top-Ten finishes here — and he has been the second-best driver at Bristol to Kyle Busch over the last two years. While Busch is listed at short +450 odds, Blaney’s price much better given the circumstances. Busch is linked with Alex Bowman in head-to-head betting propositions. Bowman has been erratic this year. After winning the Auto Club 400 in March, he finished in just 15th place in Phoenix which has a similar rules package as this race including a 750 horsepower limit. Then after a 2nd place finish in the Real Heroes 400 in the first race this month in the return to action, he has then in 18th, 19th, and then 31st place in his next three races with that last result on Thursday in Charlotte being a big disappointment because he started in the second slot in that race. Bowman also finished a middling 15th and 23rd in both races at Bristol last year. Take Blaney (7643) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowman. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-31-20 |
Jimmie Johnson -165 v. William Byron |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
The Food City 500 has been renamed this year the Supermarket Heroes 500. This race takes place at the Bristol Motor Speedways in Bristol, Tennessee. This is a short 1/2 mile track consisting of 500 laps — drivers will have to maneuver through plenty of bumps and chaos to survive. A Toyota car coming out of the team of Joe Gibbs Racing has won this race in four of the last five years. Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the Top-Ten favorites is on Jimmie Johnson who is listed at +2200 to win this event. Johnson comes off a solid 11th place finish on Thursday at the Alsco Uniforms 500 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway. Johnson drove a great race last Sunday at the Coca-Cola 500 where he crossed the finish line second but later saw that result nullified with the post-race infections where his car failed a rear alignment measurement. Johnson is a past winner here at Bristol — and his Hendrick Motorsports is keen on seeing their legendary driver break his two-year drought on winning a race in his swan song season. Johnson is linked with William Byron in head-to-head betting propositions. Byron comes off a 12th place finish on Thursday after a 20th place result last Sunday at the Coca-Cola 600. He only one Top-Ten finish in his last eight races. Bryon had middling 16th and 21st place finished at Bristol last year. And while he also races for Hendrick Motorsports, I expect him and his team to defer to Johnson if both drivers are in a position to win this race late. Take Johnson (7657) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Byron (7658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-20 |
Kyle Busch v. Kevin Harvick +115 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
115 |
6 h 24 m |
Show
|
The Alsco Uniforms 500 will be the fourth race in four days at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in a string of events that started on Sunday with the Coca-Cola 600. With the overtime required to crown Brad Keselowski the champion on Sunday, the Coca-Cola 600 ended up being 607.5 miles which made it the longest event in the 71-year history of this sport. Tonight’s race is another 500 kilometers which translate into 312 miles and 208 laps around the 1.5-mile oval track.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Kevin Harvick who Bovada currently lists at +900. Those are great odds on a driver who may be the best driver on the NASCAR circuit. The “tire whisperer” has finished in the Top-Ten in all seven Cup Series events in 2020 after his 5th place showing on Sunday. Yet that was considered an off-day for home and his Stewart-Haas racing crew. Harvick returned from the March stoppage of play to win the Real Heroes 400 at the Darlington Raceway back on May 17th. He has three victories in his career at the Charlotte Motor Speedway — and he has finished in 3rd place or better in five of his last ten races here. I find Harvick particularly intriguing since I have some red flags assigned to many of the other top favorites to win this race. Denny Hamlin will be without his crew chief for the next four races with Chris Gabehart along with two others in his pit being suspended after a tungsten ballast fell off his car on Sunday. Martin Truex, Jr. held a lead for much of the NASCAR 600 before a late pit stop saw him lose his lead — and while he finished in 6th place, he continues to be out of synch with his new crew chief James Small this season. Chase Elliott has been snake-bit in the last two races: he crashed late last Wednesday after Kyle Busch bumped him while he was in 2nd place to Hamlin in the Toyota 500 before seemingly cruising to a victory on Sunday before Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron crashing in the third-to-last lap which required a restart — and Elliott’s crew then decided to take a pit stop which cost him the race. That was a heartbreaking loss for us since Elliott was our Best Bet to win that race. While he still rallied from 9th place to 3rd place after the restart, I hate this situation for him after two deflating losses. To compound matters, Elliott raced last night in the NASCAR Truck Series which was his third race in four days along with his fourth are in eight days which includes those 607.5 miles on Sunday. Elliot won that event as well which make remove the chip he has had on his shoulder. Endurance matters for these drivers who exert plenty of energy behind the wheel at the high speeds. Harvick is linked with Kyle Busch in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Busch also raced last night in the NASCAR Truck Series in an event where he dominates. Busch also raced on Monday night in the NASCAR Xfinity Series — so this is his fourth straight race in four days. Busch did not lead for even a lap on Sunday while afterward claiming he his car was the “ninth-best” in the field. Frankly, I worry a bit that his confidence may be slightly off after the high-profile mistake last Wednesday when he perhaps cost Elliott that race. If the risk of making another mistake in this race compels Busch to drive a bit more cautiously on this narrower track, that is not a formula for success in a 208 lap race. Busch is now winless in the seven NASCAR Cup Series races this year. Take Harvick (7602) in head-to-head propositions versus Kyle Busch (7601). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
05-27-20 |
Joey Logano v. Jimmie Johnson +105 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
The Alsco Uniforms 500 will be the fourth race in four days at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in a string of events that started on Sunday with the Coca-Cola 600. With the overtime required to crown Brad Keselowski the champion on Sunday, the Coca-Cola 600 ended up being 607.5 miles which made it the longest event in the 71-year history of this sport. Tonight’s race is another 500 kilometers which translate into 312 miles and 208 laps around the 1.5-mile oval track.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Jimmie Johnson to win this event with Bovada currently pricing him at +1000. Johnson finished in 2nd place on Sunday in a very strong race before his pit crew was later suspended for post-race rear alignment measurements forced a disqualification. Johnson races out of the 40th position tonight — but starting positions are not insurmountable circumstances. His Hendrick Motorsports team would love to have him break his 102 race drought to take home at least won more first-place trophy in this swan song of a season for him. Teammate Alex Bowman is currently listed at +600 to win this event but I suspect he gets out of the way for Johnson if this race is close late. The same goes for Elliott and Byron from the Hendrick Motorsports stable which has been the dominant faction since the return to the track this month. The Hendrick team has seen one of their drivers enjoy the lead in each of the first three races this month with Johnson being the leader in two of these races. Johnson had the fastest car at the Toyota 500 last Wednesday before a wreck eliminated him from that race. Charlotte is considered “Jimmie’s House” where he has eight victories in thirty-six career starts — and he has finished in the Top-Ten in five his last seven races. Given Elliott’s bad luck in the last two races along with Johnson’s wreck last week, Hendrick Motorsports is very anxious to get a win — and the icing on the cake would be to bring one home for Johnson. I love this bet. Johnson is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions. Logano led for 26 laps on Sunday after being in first-place after Stage Three — but he faded late to finish in 13th place. After winning two of the first four races this year before the stoppage in play, Logano has not been able to regain his mojo this month. Logano finished last out of the drivers from the Team Penske stable. Logano did finish in 6th place at the Toyota 500 but he was a disappointing 18th place in the first return race this month at the Real Heroes 400. Take Johnson (7648) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Logano (7647). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
05-27-20 |
Ryan Blaney -110 v. Denny Hamlin |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Alsco Uniforms 500 will be the fourth race in four days at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in a string of events that started on Sunday with the Coca-Cola 600. With the overtime required to crown Brad Keselowski the champion on Sunday, the Coca-Cola 600 ended up being 607.5 miles which made it the longest event in the 71-year history of this sport. Tonight’s race is another 500 kilometers which translate into 312 miles and 208 laps around the 1.5-mile oval track.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the Top-Ten favorites is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +1500 to in this event. Blaney comes off a strong 3rd place finish on Sunday for Team Penske. Blaney started the season with a strong effort at the Daytona 500 where he finished in 2nd place. After Brad Keselowski won the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday, Blaney may be the top driver tonight for Team Penske which makes these odds pretty tasty. Blaney is linked with Denny Hamlin in head-to-head betting propositions. Hamlin will be without his crew chief for the next four races with Chris Gabehart along with two others in his pit being suspended after a tungsten ballast fell off his car on Sunday. I do not like the cohesion for this team having to adapt in just three days after the 29th place finish on Sunday. It has been feast or famine for Hamlin this year with victories at the Daytona 500 and the Toyota 500 but no other Top-Five finishes in 2020. Take Blaney (7643) versus Hamlin (7644) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-20 |
Martin Truex Jr v. Chase Elliott -105 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday for the Coca-Cola 600 which is the longest race on the schedule this year. The narrow track is 1.5 miles wrapped in an oval shape.
Our Best Bet is on Chase Elliott to win this race with Bovada listing him as a +650 favorite. Elliott is a motivated driver after he feels like he was robbed of a chance to win the Toyota 500 on Wednesday. Elliott was in second place late in that race before Kyle Busch made an ill-advised move that bumped his car that triggered a spinout that forced him out of the race. The 38th place official finish does not look very good — and it obscures the fact that Elliott had been steadily improving all season. After finishing in 4th place last Sunday in the The Real Heroes 400, Elliott had been in third place in the points standings with two Top-Five finishes and another two Top-Ten results in 2020. Elliott was poised for his fourth straight Top-Seven finish before getting bumped by Busch which royally pissed him off (if you saw the video exchange afterwards). Elliott has performed well on this track with two Top-Four finishes in two of the last three years. Elliott is also the top driver for Hendrick Motorsports who have been on their A-Game since the return from the COVID-19 stoppage. All four of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers have been in the lead at one point in the first two races since the return to action. While this crew pit will be working equally hard for Alex Bowman, Jimmie Johnson, and William Byron, I suspect that the controversial finish to Wednesday’s race places Elliott in a great position to shine in this race. Elliott is linked with Martin Truex, Jr. in head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Truex is the betting favorite according to Bovada at +500 after winning this event in both 2016 and last year. But Truex has not finished in the Top-Five in all six of his races in 2020 with it being apparent that he has yet to gel with new crew chief James Small who replaced Cole Pearson this year. It was a surprise when Pearson retired from the sport in December. Truex has suffered two crashes in 2020 and comes off a solid but unspectacular 10th place result on Wednesday. Take Elliott (7624) versus Truex Jr. (7623) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-24-20 |
Joey Logano -115 v. Ryan Blaney |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 42 m |
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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday for the Coca-Cola 600 which is the longest race on the schedule this year. The narrow track is 1.5 miles wrapped in an oval shape.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver that offers the most value relative to their odds is on Joey Logano who Bovada lists at +1100. Logano won two of the first four races on the west coast swing to begin 2020 before the stoppage in action. The break did no favors to continue his momentum. Frankly, the two races at the Darlington Raceway last week did not play into Logano’s strengths of a driver. But this 1.5-mile oval course is similar in layout to the 1.5-mile track at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway which Logano won earlier this year. Logano finished 2nd at this race last year for Team Penske — and he won this race in 2015 so he has a proven track record here. Logano has generated ten Top-10 finishes in his twenty career starts at the Charlotte Motor Speedway. Logan is linked with fellow Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney in head-to-head betting propositions for this event. Blaney finished in 10th place in stage points in his three races at the Charlotte Motor Speedway last year which is good but not quite at the elite level that Logano resides. Blaney has been lackluster in the return to the track with a 16th place last Sunday at The Real Heroes 400 before finishing in 21st place on Wednesday at the Toyota 500 in a race where he was bumped which eventually pushed him back in the pack. Take Logano (7635) versus Blaney (7636) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-24-20 |
Clint Bowyer v. William Byron -155 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday for the Coca-Cola 600 which is the longest race on the schedule this year. The narrow track is 1.5 miles wrapped in an oval shape. Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the Top-Ten favorites is on William Byron who Bovada lists at +2200 to win this event. The third-year pro came off the break to lead after the first stage of last Sunday’s race at Darlington before a loose tire ruined his day. He rebounded with a 12th place finish on Wednesday at the Toyota 500. Byron offers intriguing odds racing out of Hendrick Motorsports who have probably been the best pit crew since the return to action. All four of their drivers have enjoyed leads at one point in the two races this month. Byron won the pole position in this race last year which helped him lead for 31 laps before finishing a respectable 9th place. And while Byron has yet to win his first race as a professional, that has not been a barrier to success at this race over the years. Current or future Hall of Famers Jeff Gordon, Bobby LaBonte, Matt Kenseth, and David Pearson all earned their maiden victory at this race to launch their careers to the next level. Byron is linked with Clint Bowyer in head-to-head betting propositions. Bowyer interests some bettors after he finished in the Top-Five in the two 1.5-mile events with 550 horsepower/aero duct rules packages like this event before the stoppage in action. But Bowyer finished in just 17th place last Sunday at The Real Heroes 400 before a 22nd place result on Wednesday in the Toyota 500. The 40-year old did finish in 12th place here last year — but the ceiling for Byron is much higher for the younger racer. Take Byron (7664) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Bowyer (7663). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-20-20 |
Martin Truex Jr v. Denny Hamlin -115 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
15 h 50 m |
Show
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After a two-month lapse in action due to COVID-19, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series continues on Wednesday with the Toyota 500 at the Darlington Raceway which was the site for Sunday’s return to action in The Real Heroes 400. Tonight’s midweek race will be 228 laps around the track which is 65 fewer than the 293 laps required on Sunday — that translates into one less pit stop. With this race taking place under the lights, the cars will handle a bit differently with more grip on the tires. This 1.3-mile track is considered tough on tires which will add to the challenge of the short turnaround after the Cup Series was stopped for 70 days. Additionally, the race has been moved ninety minutes to a 6 PM ET start time with rain in the forecast. This race may be called before completion. Kevin Harvick won Sunday’s race — but he is an underlay bet to continue his momentum tonight with Bovada listing at very short +350 odds. The value is elsewhere in this contest.
Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who Bovada lists at +750. Hamlin opened 2020 by winning the famed Daytona 500 — but he finished no better than 10th place in his three other races to start the season before the stoppage of racing in March. Hamlin finished strong on Sunday for a 5th place finish — that was his eighth top-five result in his last fifteen Cup Series events. Hamlin has a strong course history here at Darlington with two career victories including the Southern 500 back in 2017. His Joe Gibbs Racing saw a number of their drivers close out Sunday’s race strong which suggests the pit crew found their groove which should bode well on the quick turnaround. Hamlin is also as good as it gets when it comes to saving his tires — and that may play a significant role in this race on “the track too tough too tame” seeing competition for the second time in four days. Hamlin is matched with Martin Truex, Jr. in head-to-head proposition bets. Truex comes off a 6th place finished on Sunday for the Joe Gibbs team. But Truex has struggled this season without long-time crew chief Cole Pearn who surprisingly retired in December. Truex has suffered two crashes in his first four starts of the season before Sunday’s return to driving. Take Hamlin over Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-20-20 |
Martin Truex Jr v. Brad Keselowski +110 |
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0-1 |
Win
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110 |
15 h 37 m |
Show
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After a two-month lapse in action due to COVID-19, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series continues on Wednesday with the Toyota 500 at the Darlington Raceway which was the site for Sunday’s return to action in The Real Heroes 400. Tonight’s midweek race will be 228 laps around the track which is 65 fewer than the 293 laps required on Sunday — that translates into one less pit stop. With this race taking place under the lights, the cars will handle a bit differently with more grip on the tires. This 1.3-mile track is considered tough on tires which will add to the challenge of the short turnaround after the Cup Series was stopped for 70 days. Additionally, the race has been moved ninety minutes to a 6 PM ET start time with rain in the forecast. This race may be called before completion. Kevin Harvick won Sunday’s race — but he is an underlay bet to continue his momentum tonight with Bovada listing at very short +350 odds. The value is elsewhere in this contest. Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Brad Keselowski who Bovada lists at +900. Keselowski led for 80 laps on Sunday before fading late for a disappointing 13th place finish. But that result may serve as a blessing in disguise for this race for two reasons. First, Keselowski may be less fatigued for this race than many of his competitors since he literally took his foot off the accelerator late on Sunday. Fatigue is a significant issue for these drivers coming off the long layoff — and the quick turnaround exacerbates that issue. Second, the pole positions for tonight’s race are flipped from the top-twenty results on Sunday — so Keselowski will race from the 8th position which is a better starting point that most of the top favorites for this race. The 2012 NASCAR champion has enjoyed a good start to 2020 with a top-five finish along with two other top-ten results. Driving out of Team Penske, Keselowski has a strong track record at Darlington where he won in 2018 among four top-ten finishes. Keselowski had averaged a 6.0 result in his last six races on this racetrack before Sunday’s result so he may be due for a big bounce-back performance. Keselowski is linked with Martin Truex, Jr. in head-to-head proposition bets. Truex comes off a 6th place finished on Sunday for the Joe Gibbs team. But Truex has struggled this season without long-time crew chief Cole Pearn who surprisingly retired in December. Truex has suffered two crashes in his first four starts of the season before Sunday’s return to driving. Truex’s 6th place result places in back at the 15th starting position tonight which gives us a nice starting edge for this prop. Take Keselowski over Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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05-20-20 |
Ryan Blaney v. Jimmie Johnson -125 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
14 h 22 m |
Show
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After a two-month lapse in action due to COVID-19, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series continues on Wednesday with the Toyota 500 at the Darlington Raceway which was the site for Sunday’s return to action in The Real Heroes 400. Tonight’s midweek race will be 228 laps around the track which is 65 fewer than the 293 laps required on Sunday — that translates into one less pit stop. With this race taking place under the lights, the cars will handle a bit differently with more grip on the tires. This 1.3-mile track is considered tough on tires which will add to the challenge of the short turnaround after the Cup Series was stopped for 70 days. Additionally, the race has been moved ninety minutes to a 6 PM ET start time with rain in the forecast. This race may be called before completion. Kevin Harvick won Sunday’s race — but he is an underlay bet to continue his momentum tonight with Bovada listing at very short +350 odds. The value is elsewhere in this contest.
Our Long Shot Bet on a driver outside the top-ten favorites to win this race is on Jimmy Johnson who Bovada lists at +1600. OK, Johnson is the 10th favorite according to Bovada — but I am bending my rules to endorse Johnson for this contest (hey, they are my rules!). I love the situation for Johnson after he was leading the way going into the last lap of the first stage on Sunday before he suffered a frustrating bump which forced him to spin out. Not only will Johnson be particularly focused to redeem himself from that disappointment but he should have an endurance edge over his opponents after not competing for the rest of that race. The veteran is a two-time champion at Darlington after winning the checkered flag in 2004 and 2012 — and perhaps the eight-year itch will come through again. Johnson’s odds are low because he has not won in now 100 races. But Johnson is performing well in his declared final season as a driver as he was 5th in the points lead before the stoppage of play. Ten of Johnson’s 83 career victories have occurred in May including both his wins at Darlington. Johnson is linked with Ryan Blaney in head-to-head betting propositions. Blaney finished in 16th place on Sunday for Team Penske which continued his string of disappointing results after his promising 2nd place finish at the Daytona 500 to begin the 2020 season. Since that result, Blaney has not finished inside the top-ten including a 37th place finish in Phoenix. Despite Johnson’s crash in stage one, his stablemates in Hendrick Motorsports enjoyed strong finishes on Sunday which is a good sign that his team is primed for good results tonight. I like the Johnson play so much that I considered him for my Top Overlay Bet (and I would have taken Ryan Newman at +9000 as my Long Shot). Take Johnson over Blaney in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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