05-10-21 |
Burnley +0.5 v. Fulham |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Burnley (200093) plus the goal-line versus Fulham (200094). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W9-D9-L16) has lost four of their last five matches after their 2-1 loss to West Ham United last Monday. Fulham (W5-D12-L17) is winless in their last six matches after their 2-0 loss at Chelsea on May 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Clarets may have lost four of their last five, but they have won the expected goals (xG) battle in three of their last four matches. They were better than the Hammers in xG by a 2.24-2.17 margin last week — and that West Ham team is fifth in the EPL table this season. Manager Sean Dyche always gets the most out of his talent. Burnley is a gritty defensive team led by one of the best keepers in the English Premier League in Nick Pope. This formula has brought quality results for the Clarets for this team when playing on the road. Burnley has won four of their last eight matches away from home with victories against Liverpool, Everton, Wolverhampton, and Crystal Palace — and they conceded just one goal in those four contests. The Clarets are still not safe from relegation — they are in 17th place with a nine-point lead over Fulham. A victory cements their spot in the English top-flight next season. Burnley lacks elite talent given the finances of the franchise — but this is their fifth straight season in the EPL with Dyche leading the way. They finished in 10th place last year — and they were seventh place back in 2017-18. While the Clarets can struggle against the top teams, they usually take care of business against the bottom of the table. This is Last Chance Saloon for Fulham who must get three points to keep any hope of alive of staving off relegation — but that has been the case over the last month. After a surprising 1-0 victory at Liverpool that raised the hopes that manager Scott Parker could steer this team out of the relegation zone, the Cottagers have managed only one draw against Arsenal in their last six matches. Those were all must-win situations as well. Fulham lost the expected goals battle in four of those six games — so the results were pretty fair. This is simply a team without much talent — and they lack the same level of structure and defensive discipline that the Clarets offer. The Cottagers have the worst home record in the EPL — and they have lost four in a row at home. With just two victories at home at Craven Cottage in their 17 matches, getting paid from a draw is a very enticing proposition. Fulham lacks a potent offensive attack — they have been blanked at home in five of their last seven matches. They will have to be aggressive since they are desperate for the three points coming from a victory. The Burnley 4-4-2 counter-attacking formation should generate counter-attacking opportunities.
FINAL TAKE: Fulham is winless in their two matches against Burnley this season. They lost at home to the Clarets in FA Cup action back in January by a 3-0 score before setting for a 1-1 draw in the reverse EPL fixture at Turf Moor on February 17th. I would not be surprised with a Burnley victory, but a draw is also a likely outcome. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Burnley (200093) plus the goal-line versus Fulham (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-07-21 |
Newcastle United v. Leicester OVER 2.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W9-D9-L16) enters this match coming off a 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Sunday. Leicester City (W19-D6-L9) is unbeaten in their last four matches after a 1-1 draw at Southampton last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle was unbeaten in their previous four matches before getting blanked by the Gunners on Sunday. The Magpies have still scored in five of their last seven matches with their attack jump-started by the return of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin who had been injured for much of 2021. They had scored eight combined goals in their previous four matches before Sunday. They have scored three combined goals in their last two matches on the road. But defense remains an issue for manager Steve Bruce. They have allowed 11 goals in their last six matches — and they have conceded the most shots in the league over that span. With Newcastle in 17th place, grabbing points in this match helps them avoid relegation with Fulham currently in danger, nine points behind the Magpies. Leicester City is perhaps playing their most important month of the season since their English Premier League title run in 2015-16. They are currently in third place in the table fighting to finish in the top four to qualify for the UEFA Champions League next season. They also have an impending FA Cup title on the line when they play Chelsea next Saturday. Manager Brendan Rodgers elevation of forward Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has brought new life into the Foxes’ attack. He has scored ten goals in his last nine contests as he complements Jamie Vardy who leads the team with 13 goals. This team is so much better when Vardy has help on the attack. Harvey Barnes is injured but James Maddison is back in the mix after missing time last month after violating COVID protocols. Leicester City has scored six goals in their last three matches — and they have scored nine goals in their last five games and 19 goals in their last nine while getting blanked just once. But the Foxes have conceded goals in their last two matches as well as in five of their last seven.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen six of their last seven games at home at King Power Stadium finish Over 2.5 goals. They won the reverse fixture on January 3rd at St. James Park. Expect a similar result this afternoon. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200101) and Leicester City (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-21 |
Manchester United -0.5 v. Roma |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (224409) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224410) in the second leg in the Semifinals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United won the first leg of the semifinals with a 6-2 victory last Thursday. Roma must score at least four goals to make even the goal differential — a 4-0 or 5-1 score secures them the away goal tiebreaker, while a 6-2 result after regulation time would trigger an extra-time playoff.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United took an early lead against Roma last week before going into halftime with a 2-1 deficit. But then Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side put it into another gear by scoring five unanswered goals in the second half for the easy victory. The Red Devils generated 4.25 expected goals — so their offensive domination was not a fluke. Now with their match with Liverpool on Sunday postponed due to the fan protests at Old Trafford, Solskjaer’s group is rested and ready. Man United is in second place in the English Premier League which might overvalue their quality — they are not as good as Chelsea, and they are not as good as Liverpool despite the reigning EPL champions experiencing a down-year hit-hard by injuries. And they may not be as good as the Leicester City team that handed them their only loss since February in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. But the Red Devils are much better with a healthy (and engaged) Paul Pogba joining Bruno Fernandes in their midfield. Man United has now won 13 of their last 18 matches across all competitions. The Red Devils have been reliable on the road this season. They are second in the EPL with 37 points away from home with a W10-D7-L0 mark. They have won four of their last six matches on the road across all competitions. Roma is just not very good — and they are riddled with injuries and now playing for a lame-duck coach. They are winless in their last six matches across all competitions with four losses after losing at Sampdoria in Seria A competition by a 2-0 score on Sunday. Defeating Ajax in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League was a nice accomplishment for the Yellow and Reds — but they lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both contests to the Dutch side. In fact, they were dominated — they managed only 1.62 xG combined with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 4.43 xGA. Roma is only in seventh place in Serie A — a distant eight points behind the sixth-place Lazio. They have allowed at least three goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions. They have conceded 2.5 xGA or higher in four of their last eight league matches despite not facing a tough schedule. They are not close to full strength at this point of the season either. First string goaltender Pau Lopez is out. Midfielders Jordan Veretout and Leonardo Spinazzola are doubts after suffering injuries against Man United last week. Amadou Diawara and Carles Perez are dealing with knocks from the Sunday match. To compound matters, manager Paulo Fonseca was informed he will not return to the franchise next fall with the upper brass hiring Jose Mourinho to be the new skipper earlier in the week.
FINAL TAKE: Man United may be overrated a tad — but they are still one of the better teams in the English Premier League. Roma is not as good, relatively, in Serie A which is vastly inferior to the EPL — and now they are playing for a lame-duck manager. The Red Devils have a busy EPL schedule coming up so they will be cautious with this match in hand — but since the Yellow and Reds must play aggressively to score at least four goals, the counter-attacking opportunities will be ever-present. Solskjaer’s teams at Man United have been at their most effective when able to sit back and counter-attack rather than playing on their front foot. 25* UEFA Europa League Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester United (224409) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-05-21 |
Real Madrid v. Chelsea UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw hosting the Blues in the first leg last Wednesday. Chelsea advances to the Finals with a win or a scoreless draw. Real Madrid advances with a win or a draw where at least two goals are scored. A 1-1 draw after regulation time forces extra time to determine a winner (and this extra time does not impact the totals bet which is resolved after regulation time).
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid comes off a 2-0 victory against Osasuna on Saturday in La Liga action. They held Osasuna to a microscopic 0.07 expected goals in that match. Los Blancos are unbeaten in their last 19 matches while allowing only nine goals during that span. They have surrendered only three goals in their five Knockout Stage matches in the Champions League. Manager Zinedine Zidane continues to deal with injuries in their backline with Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal, and Lucas Vazquez dealing with knocks — but Sergio Ramos and Ferland Mendy appear to be healthy again. Real Madrid managed only 0.96 expected goals (xG) against Chelsea last week which was the lowest xG mark in their last 45 matches. The Blues have held their opponents across all competitions to just 0.58 xG since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager on January 27th. Chelsea has allowed only four goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League. They come off a 2-0 clean sheet victory at home against Fulham in the English Premier League on Saturday. The Blues have conceded just five times in their last 11 games at home across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea advances to the finals with a nil-nil draw — so Tuchel will likely play very conservatively. The Blues’ last six matches in the Champions League have finished Under the Total. Real Madrid has played three straight matches and five of their last six across all competitors Under 2.5 goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match between these two teams. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Chelsea (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-04-21 |
Paris Saint-Germain v. Manchester City -0.75 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224214) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224213) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of the Semifinals with a 2-1 victory. PSG must win this match by at least two goals, or secure a victory in extra time after securing a 2-1 score after regulation time.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Citizens host this second leg at their Etihad Stadium where they have not allowed more than one goal in 20 of their last 23 matches across all competitions with 14 clean sheets during that span. Man City has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace on Saturday in a match where manager Pep Guardiola was able to rest key players to ensure his starting XI are ready for this showdown. The Citizens are cruising to their third English Premier League title in the last four seasons with a comfortable 13 point lead on Manchester United. Man City has won six in a row the Champions League while scoring twice in each of those matches. They have only allowed four goals in their 11 Champions League matches. Man City was outplayed in the first half against PSG last week with the Parisians expended tons of energy on an aggressive counter-attack. But the problem for manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side was unable to sustain that effort in the second half where the Citizens dictated the tempo and scored their two goals. That is the difference between playing in Ligue 1 and playing in the English Premier League every week. Not only is the EPL a more competitive league from week to week, but it is the most physical professional league in Europe. Man City has better endurance — and better depth. Guardiola made a good substitution by replacing Joao Cancelo on his backline who got burned three times in the first half with Oleksander Zinchenko who had two successful tackles in the final 45 minutes in helping to stabilize the defense. Guardiola will likely stick with Zinchenko this afternoon. Mauricio Pochettino is behind the eight-ball for this second leg. He can no longer have his side play the cat-and-mouse counter-attack that was successful in the first half last week. But even worse, PSG’s best player, Kylian Mbappe, will not start after suffering a calf injury that kept him out of the Parisian’s 2-1 win over Lens in the French top-flight on Saturday. Mbappe averages a whopping 0.80 expected goals per 90 minutes — his absence is devastating. Even if he does take the pitch as a sub, his speed and effectiveness will likely be diminished. PSG still has Neymar — but the Brazilian is a perpetual underachiever when asked to be the talisman. Neymar needs Mbappe to open up his game. Without him, Neymar will flop his way to a number of disputes with the refs, but he rarely carries his professional or Brazilian National Team to success. To compound matters, PSG will also be without holding midfielder Idrissa Gana Gueye who is suspended for this match after being issued a red card in last week’s match. Gueye led his team last week with four tackles and nine successful pressures despite only playing 71 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Paris Saint-Germain is a threat against the best competition in the world when playing at full strength. The loss of Gueye is a significant blow, but the injury to Mbappe is devastating. And they have to play on their front foot. The Man City “false-nine” where they play without a true attacker but with a slew of attacking midfielders is very effective in the counterattack — and they will likely score a few times from this formation. A draw is all Man City needs to advance — but I see the straight-up victory on their home pitch. 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (224214) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-30-21 |
Leicester -0.5 v. Southampton |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Leicester City (200073) minus the goal-line versus Southampton (200074). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W19-D5-L9) has won three matches in a row with their 2-1 win against Crystal Palace on Monday. Southampton (W10-D6-L16) has lost three in a row after their 2-1 loss at Tottenham on April 21st.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes are cruising along with ten victories in their last sixteen matches in the English Premier League including four wins in their last six games in the top-flight. They have clean sheets in two of their last three matches — including their 1-0 victory against these Saints in the Semifinals of the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium on April 18th. Leicester City has plenty to play for with them in third place at the EPL table and in the driver’s seat to finally qualify for the Champions League which has eluded them over the years. They have a red hot player in Kelechi Iheanacho who has scored 10 goals in his last eight matches (including goals in four straight matches). The Foxes are much better when they have a second reliable scorer to complement Jamie Vardy who leads the team with 12 goals. Leicester City has been reliable on the road with ten wins in sixteen league matches. Southampton is in deep funk with twelve losses in their seventeen matches across all competitions — and they have lost twelve of their last fifteen matches in the EPL. They have allowed at least two goals in their last five league games. They host this match at St. Mary’s Stadium where they have lost four of their last six matches. To compound matters, they will be without Danny Ings likely for the rest of the season with the hamstring injury he suffered against the Hotspurs on April 21st. He scored his team-leading 10th goal in the loss to Tottenham before exiting the game. This is a team in no man's land in the EPL table — they are safe from relegation in 15th place, nine points ahead of Fulham fighting to avoid relegation. But the Saints cannot qualify for European competition — so they have nothing to play for. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl likes his team to play aggressively with their pressing — but the condensed schedule has taken its toll on this demanding tactical approach. Without the depth of a club like Man City, it is hard for mid-tier teams like Southampton to execute this approach from week to week. Frankly, the Saints are tired — and now they lack motivation. When the calendar hits May, these are the type of teams that start having their minds on the proverbial beach. Where will the Southampton players be vacationing next month?
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has already defeated Southampton twice this season in matches with higher stakes for the Saints. Besides the victory in the FA Cup earlier this month, the Foxes defeated Southampton in the reverse league fixture on January 16th by a 2-0 score. Leicester City will find a way to win. 25* English Premier League Friday Afternoon Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200073) minus the goal-line versus Southampton (200074). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-29-21 |
Roma v. Manchester United -1 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224401) in the first leg in the Semifinals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United advanced to the Semifinals of the Europa League with their 4-0 aggregate score victory against Granada in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Roma reached the Semifinals with their 3-2 aggregate score win against Ajax.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United is in second place in the English Premier League which might overvalue their quality — they are not as good as Chelsea, and they are not as good as Liverpool despite the reigning EPL champions experiencing a down year hit-hard by injuries. And they may not be as good as the Leicester City team that handed them their only loss since February in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. But the Red Devils are much better with a healthy (and engaged) Paul Pogba joining Bruno Fernandes in their midfield. Man United has won 12 of their last 17 matches across all competitions after they settled for a 0-0 draw at Leeds United on Sunday. The Red Devils struggled at home at Old Trafford in the fall as they may have lacked energy on their pitch without fans. But they have won their last four matches at home across all competitions with eight goals and just two conceded. They have also won five of their last six matches at home in the EPL, which is probably the most competitive professional league in Europe (and the world). Roma is just not very good. They are winless in their last four matches across all competitions with two losses after losing to a Cagliari side on Sunday that is 17th in Serie A. Defeating Ajax in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League was a nice accomplishment — but they lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both contests to the Dutch side. In fact, they were dominated — they managed only 1.62 xG combined with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 4.43 xGA. The Yellow and Reds are only in seventh place in Serie A — a distant five points behind the sixth-place Lazio. They have allowed at least three goals in their last two league matches — and they have conceded 2.5 xGA or higher in four of their last seven league matches despite not facing a tough schedule. Roma has not been a great road team either with two straight losses away from home as well as five losses in their last eight matches (with only one victory) in the Italian top flight.
FINAL TAKE: Man United may be overrated a tad — but they are still one of the better teams in the English Premier League. Roma is not as good, relatively, in Serie A which is vastly inferior to the EPL. Let’s not overthink this. Man United handed Granada two 2-0 losses in the Quarterfinals of the Europa League. That seems the likely result in this one with a one-goal victory (and push) the most probable worst-case scenario. 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Month with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus AS Roma (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-28-21 |
Manchester City -0.25 v. Paris Saint-Germain |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224201) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg in the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Man City advanced to the Semifinals with their 4-2 aggregate score victory against Borussia Dortmund in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. PSG reached the Semifinals due to the road goals tiebreaker that resolved the 3-3 aggregate score deadlock with Bayern Munich in the Quarterfinals. PSG hosts the first leg at their Parc des Princes.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Winning the Champions League is the crown jewel for manager Pep Guardiola and this Man City team. They are cruising to their third English Premier League championship in the last four seasons with their 10-point lead in the EPL table over Manchester United. Not only have the Citizens never reached the Semifinals of the Champions League under Guardiola, but this proud franchise has never won a Champions League title. Man City lifted their first trophy this season on Sunday by winning the Carabou Cup in a 1-0 win against Tottenham. The tactics of that match were important as Guardiola’s side had to combat the Hotspurs playing a cagey, defensive-oriented match that relied on occasional moments of a counter-attack. These are the tactics that former Tottenham skipper, Mauricio Pochettino has deployed with PSG in this tournament. Guardiola gets John Stones back for this match after he received a red card three-match suspension. His return bolsters the Citizens backline since he has formed a great partnership with center-back Ruben Dias. Man City’s defense has been at its best with Dias and Stone paired on the pitch. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their four knockout stage matches in the Champions League — and they have generated clean sheets in 52% of their matches in the EPL. Man City has scored at least two goals in eight of their ten Champions League matches this season. Phil Foden is a rising superstar that has eclipsed the perpetually underachieving Gabriel Jesus and the aging Sergio Aguero as the team’s most accomplished finisher. PSG will likely continue to deploy a 4-4-1-1 formation that was successful in absorbing the Bayern Munich attack in the Quarterfinals. Kylian Mbappe is critical for the success of this team as the player up to in this formation — but the brilliant 22-year-old is a doubt for this match with a knee injury he suffered on Saturday in the Parisians 3-1 win against Metz. Mbappe scored twice in that match before exiting because of the injury. I expect Mbappe to play — it will be a coup for us if he is unable to take the pitch. But, Mbappe may not be at 100% — and he needs to be. PSG’s triumph over the Bavarians was marred by Bayern Munich being without their best attacker, Robert Lewandowski, to injury. I am not nearly as impressed with their Round of 16 victory against a Barcelona side that beats up on lesser opponents before fading against their best competition. The Parisians are not even winning Ligue 1 this season, as they are one point behind Lille for first place in the French top flight. PSG does not play elite defense either — they have surrendered five goals in their four knockout stage matches in this competition.
FINAL TAKE: This is the critical match for Man City since their road goals output will serve as their entry into the potential tiebreaker. I liked the Citizens in this matchup even before the Mbappe knock — expect a road win for Guardiola. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Manchester City (224201) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-21 |
Chelsea +0.5 v. Real Madrid |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (224205) plus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224206). THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with their 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Porto in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Real Madrid advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-1 aggregate win against Liverpool in the Quarterfinals. Los Blancos host this first leg at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues last played on Saturday in a 1-0 victory against West Ham United. That was their third straight clean sheet — including a big 1-0 shutout victory against Manchester City in the Semifinals of the FA Cup who are playing in the other Champions League Semifinals match. Chelsea immediately became a defensive juggernaut after Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. In his 21 matches as the skipper, the Blues have shutout 16 of their opponents across all competitions. Besides Tuchel being a much better manager of players in making his expectations and confidence clear, he also changed tactics to a 3-4-2-1 formation. This shape gave the team extra defenders to tighten up their back end — but it also allows for Chelsea to gain an extra attacker when they go on the counter-attack. The Blues play cautiously while controlling possession. They are allowing only 0.58 expected goals allowed (xGA) since Tuchel took over. They have generated seven clean sheets in their last ten matches in the Champions League. This approach has been wildly effective as they have lost only twice in their 21 matches under Tuchel. One of those losses was a 5-2 setback at home to West Brom — but that result was an outlier with the Baggies scoring all five of their goals after Thiago Silva was issued a red card which left the Blues playing with only ten men for over 60 minutes in that match. Real Madrid has registered four clean sheets in a row themselves after a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in La Liga action on Saturday. Los Blancos have nine clean sheets in their last 16 matches across all competitions -- and this includes against quality competition in Atalanta, Liverpool, and Atletico Madrid in five of those clean sheets. But Real Madrid has also conceded goals against Barcelona, Real Sociedad, and Atletico Madrid in their most recent matches against teams in the top five in La Liga. Manager Zinedine Zidane is dealing with several injuries that will likely compel him to engage in more conservative tactics as well. Center back Sergio Ramos has missed most of the season, and now left-back Ferland Mendy along with defensive midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: La Liga is down this season with Real Madrid being the only side to advance out of the Round of 16 in the Champions League. Chelsea handled Atletico Madrid pretty easily with a 3-0 aggregate victory in the Round of 16 — and that is the current first-place team in La Liga. 10* UEFA Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Chelsea (224205) plus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-27-21 |
Chelsea v. Real Madrid UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
50 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the UEFA Champions League with their 2-1 aggregate victory over FC Porto in the Quarterfinals earlier this month. Real Madrid advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-1 aggregate win against Liverpool in the Quarterfinals. Los Blancos host this first leg at their Alfredo di Stefano Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea last played on Saturday in a 1-0 victory against West Ham United. That was the Blues’ third straight clean sheet — including a big 1-0 shutout victory against Manchester City in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. Chelsea immediately became a defensive juggernaut after Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. In his 21 matches as the skipper, the Blues have shutout 16 of their opponents across all competitions. Besides Tuchel being a much better manager of players in making his expectations and confidence clear, he also changed tactics to a 3-4-2-1 formation. This shape gave the team extra defenders to tighten up their back end — but it also allows for Chelsea to gain an extra attacker when they go on the counter-attack. The Blues play cautiously while controlling possession. They are allowing only 0.58 expected goals allowed (xGA) since Tuchel took over. They have generated seven clean sheets in their last ten matches in the Champions League. But this conservative approach has taken some of the bite out of the Chelsea attack. They have scored only two goals in their last four matches. Real Madrid has registered four clean sheets in a row themselves after a 0-0 draw at home to Real Betis in La Liga action on Saturday. Los Blancos have nine clean sheets in their last 16 matches across all competitions -- and this includes against quality competition in Atalanta, Liverpool, and Atletico Madrid in five of those clean sheets. They have only allowed two combined goals in their four matches in the knockout stage of the Champions League. But the Real Madrid attack has not been very sharp as of late as they have only scored in one of their last four matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane is dealing with several injuries that will likely compel him to engage in more conservative tactics as well. Center back Sergio Ramos has missed most of the season, and now left-back Ferland Mendy along with defensive midfielders Lucas Vazquez and Fede Valverde dealing with knocks. Zidane had midfielder Casemiro play back as almost a third center back in their second leg match against Liverpool in that 0-0 draw. He may deploy this tactic again — keeping this first leg a lower-scoring match helps Los Blancos control the potential road goals tiebreaker.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has played 18 of their 21 matches in the Tuchel regime Under 2.5 goals. While Real Madrid has played 12 of their 23 matches Under 2.5 goals in 2021, they have seen only three combined goals in their last four matches. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (224205) and Real Madrid (224206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-24-21 |
Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 v. Sheffield United |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200021) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200022). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W7-D13-L12) earned their second-straight draw with their 0-0 result at Chelsea on Tuesday. Sheffield United (W4-D2-L26) lost their sixth straight match in a 1-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls are one of the best defensive teams in the English Premier League. They limited Chelsea to just 0.85 expected goals (xG) while holding them scoreless. That was Brighton’s third clean sheet in their last four matches. Manager Graham Potter’s side has the third-lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL which is a testament to his tactical acumen. Potter is on the shortlist to be the next manager at Tottenham — and that would be a great choice. The Seagulls have been expected goals darlings all season — they rank fifth in the EPL since January 1st in expected goals differential. This club is only in 16th place and fighting off relegation because they lack finishers on offense. Brighton generates plenty of chances — while they have only scored 33 goals, their xG skyrockets to 46.61 for the season. Facing Sheffield United may be just what the doctor ordered. This team was able to finish in the top half of the table last season given organized play on defense and fantastic goaltending from Dean Henderson. They lost Henderson in the offseason to Manchester United as he fights to not only win that starting job but also claiming the starting keeper position for the England national team. Aaron Ramsdale has not been of the same quality for the Blades this season. This team is now officially relegated, and their outstanding manager, Chris Wilder, was sacked last month. There was no bounce from this group after Wilder was dismissed — they have lost nine of ten matches. This team simply cannot score — they are last in the league in goals scored, third-to-last in xG, and they have scored just twice in their last ten matches. A key to their success last year was their ability to take leads which allowed Wilder to safely park thorn proverbial bus in the back. Instead, the defense has been too leaky and they are the ones to fall behind. The Blades have allowed the third-most goals this season. Since January 1st, Sheffield United its second-to-last in both xG and xGA. In their six straight losses, four of these setbacks have been by multiple goals. Injuries are mounting up, and the Championship League is on the horizon for next season as the club considers who their next manager will be. Paul Heckingbottom has been the caretaker over the last month, but the players know he may be a lame duck who will not be retained. This is the formula for teams playing with the summer “beach” on their minds.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton would love to take the three points in this match to all but guarantee that they would avoid relegation. They have tough matches with Man City and West Ham on deck. The Seagulls should dominate the pitch and see scoring chances pull-through for an easy win. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200021) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-23-21 |
Everton v. Arsenal UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D7-L10) settled for a draw for their third match in a row with their 2-2 result with Tottenham last Friday. Arsenal (W13-D7-L12) also settled for a draw in their last match in a 1-1 score with Fulham on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Toffees are playing in a defensive posture with manager Carlo Ancelotti adapting to injuries that have riddled the cohesion of his midfield for most of the season. Everton has more than one goal just once in 11 straight matches across all competitions — and they have blanked in three of those matches. The Toffees have also produced clean sheets in three of their last 11 matches. They go back on the road where they have played four straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. Everton has failed to score in their last two road games in league play — but they have also produced three clean sheets in their last four EPL matches away from home. Arsenal will be without their top two scorers in Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who have combined to score 22 of the team’s 44 goals. Lacazette is dealing with an injury, while Aubemeyang is recovering from the Malaria he caught on the international break playing for his national team in Gabon. Manager Mikel Arteta will be relying on younger forwards for this match. The Gunners have only scored twice in their last four matches at home. But Arsenal has only allowed two combined goals in their last four matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Everton has seen eight of their last 11 matches see no more than two combined goals. Expect a cagey, low-scoring match this afternoon. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Everton (200013) and Arsenal (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-19-21 |
Liverpool -0.75 v. Leeds United |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Liverpool (200109) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200110). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W15-D7-L9) enters this match coming off a 2-1 win against Aston Villa in their most recent match in the English Premier League back on April 10th. Leeds United (W14-D3-L14) has won three in a row after their 2-1 upset win at Manchester City on April 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds' most recent match was on Wednesday when their 0-0 draw against Real Madrid eliminated them from the Champions League after losing the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin in that Quarterfinals showdown. There were some positive takeaways from that disappointing draw (since Liverpool needed a 2-0 result or a victory by at least three goals). The Reds won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.16-0.79 mark. And they produced a clean sheet for the fourth time in their last six matches across all competitions. Liverpool’s defense has been shaky — but the return of Fabinho from injury has helped to stabilize their back end. In their last six matches in the EPL, the Reds have surrendered the third-fewest Big Chances. Getting Diogo Jota back from injury also provided manager Jurgen Klopp another creative force to help Mo Salah and Sadio Mane. Roberto Firminho has regressed which has left the reigning EPL champions less potent in their scoring. Liverpool has scored five combined goals in their last two league matches. Leeds United comes off that upset win against Man City which is even more impressive when considering that they half the match with only ten men after Liam Cooper was issued a red card just before halftime. But there are some caveats to consider from that result. First, Man City was playing their second unit with their more important second leg of the Champions League Quarterfinals matchup with Borussia Dortmund pending a few days later. The Citizens have all but wrapped up the EPL title. Second, Man City still dominated the match. They peppered the Whites with 29 shots while holding them to just two shots for the entire match. Leeds lost the xG battle by a whopping 2.56-0.09 mark. The Whites go into this match undermanned with their most creative player, Raphinha, questionable with a knock, and their captain Cooper suspended for this match after getting that red card.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool remains motivated to play well down the stretch since they need to finish in the top four to qualify for the Champions League next season. The Reds are three points behind West Ham for fourth place — and with their elimination from the Champions League last week, the EPL is now their sole focus. Salah is also in the race to win another Golden Boot for the most goals in the league. These two teams played on September 12th in a wild one that Liverpool survived by a 4-3 score at Anfield. Manager Jurgen Klopp should have more refined thoughts as to how to adapt to the unique attacking schemes from Leeds’ manager Marcelo Bielsa. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Liverpool (200109) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-18-21 |
Southampton v. Leicester OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the math between Southampton (200405) and Leicester City (200406). THE SITUATION: Southampton reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup with their 3-0 win against Bournemouth on March 20th. Leicester City advanced to the Semifinals of the FA Cup a day later on March 21st with their 3-1 victory against Manchester United. This match will take place on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton is mired in 14th place in the English Premier League table but safe from relegation. Lifting an FA Cup title is the team’s line ambition at this point of the season for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s group. The Saints limp into this match coming off a 3-0 loss at West Brom Albion. Defense has been the problem for this side — they allowed a Baggies team likely destined for relegation to generate 3.07 expected goals (xG). Southampton has allowed 35 goals in their last 15 matches across all competitions. Granted, nine of those goals came in a debacle of a loss to Man United. Still, in their last four matches across all competitions, the Saints have allowed 12 goals. But Southampton has gotten their scoring attack going — they have scored 11 goals in the last five matches across all competitions. Getting Danny Ings healthy and back on the pitch makes a big difference — he has scored 13 goals in 22 matches in all competitions this season. Leicester City has lost two in a row with their 3-2 loss to West Ham last Sunday. The Foxes have allowed six goals in their last three matches in all competitions. Leicester City has scored 12 times in their last five matches. The insertion of Kelechi Iheanacho into the starting XI has provided new energy to the attack. The Nigerian is playing up to as a poacher with Jamie Vardy being relied on for more creativity. But the good news for manager Brendan Rodgers is the return of midfielder James Maddison who has been out for breaking COVID quarantine for most of the month. When Maddison is on the pitch, the Leicester City attack is at its finest since he takes much of the pressure off Vardy.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will deploy their best starting XI for this match since an FA Cup trophy would mark a successful season for both franchises. Southampton’s defensive efforts have lagged since a brief period of glory last summer during Project Restart — but they should keep it competitive with Ings healthy. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the math between Southampton (200405) and Leicester City (200406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-17-21 |
West Ham United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W16-D7-L8) enters this match coming off a 3-2 win against Leicester City last Sunday. Newcastle (W8-D8-L15) comes off a 2-1 win at Burnley last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hammers got two opening goals in the first half from Jesse Lingard who is on fire right now in the English Premier League. Lingard has scored eight goals and added three assists in his nine matches since being acquired by West Ham on loan from Man United in the winter transfer window. While he is over-performing his underlying metrics, he is still averaging 0.44 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes and 0.18 expected assists per 90 minutes. And take his over-performance with this grain of salt: Lionel Messi over-performs his metrics as well. No, Lingard is not Messi (or Messi Jr.) — but there necessarily are outlier performances that determined league-wide averages of expectation. Brighton underperforms in their expected goals because their striker, Aaron Maupay, is not very good. Lingard might be out-performing his expectations because he is simply playing better than the average player. Baseball measures this statistic a bit better with their “Wins Above Replacement Player” (WARP) number. I digress. Even without forward Michail Antonio being healthy and available, West Ham is clicking on offense right now. They have scored three goals in each of their last three matches. They have scored 20 goals in their last ten matches while averaging a robust 1.61 xG per game during that span. David Moyes’ side will need to continue this efficiency on offense given their injuries on defense. The Hammers have been without center back Angelo Ogbunna and holding midfielder Declan Rice — and they have allowed 3.58 xGA combined in their last two matches. Left-back Aaron Cresswell joins them on the sidelines for this match as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. That is not a good development for a defense that has allowed the second-most shots inside the box in their last four matches. Newcastle may be in 17th place but they lead the EPL over the last four matchweeks in expected goals in open play. They generated a whopping 4.07 xG against Tottenham two matches ago. They have scored four goals in their last two matches — yet they are still the most underperforming side in the EPL when comparing expected goals with actual goals in the last six matchweeks. If lack of talent explained that problem, help is on the way for manager Steve Bruce who saw the return of his two most talented players on offense in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin last Sunday. They combine to average 0.69 xG per 90 minutes. But like West Ham, the Magpies are dealing with their share of injuries from key defensive players as well. Bruce will be without center backs Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar for this match. Newcastle allows 1.54 xGA per match this season which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. And in their ten matches against teams in the top half of the table, the Magpies are allowing 2.38 xGA per contest.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have plenty at stake. West Ham is motivated to stay in fourth place to qualify for the Champions League next season. Newcastle is six points clear of relegation in 17th place — but picking up points this morning goes a long way to keep them safe which is why Bruce has them playing as openly as of late as they have all season. In a game between two teams playing with confidence on offense but with depleted defensive corps, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-16-21 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Everton +0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Everton (200106) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200105). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D6-L10) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion on Monday. Tottenham (W14-D7-L10) has lost two straight in the English Premier League after their 3-1 loss to Manchester City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Tottenham is simply a hot mess right now — they have only one victory in their last five matches across all competitions. They have also won just seven times in their last 20 games in the EPL — and this was against lowly competition: West Brom, Sheffield, Fulham, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, and Leeds United. Those are sides in the bottom-11 including the three teams likely to be relegated. Against the top-ten teams in the table, the Spurs are averaging only 1.06 expected goals (xG) while surrendering 1.48 expected goals (xGA). This is a team moving in the wrong direction under manager Jose Mourinho. It usually takes about two years for a locker room to grow tired of the prickly manager — but Mourinho seems to have already worn out his welcome less than a year and a half into his tenure. In his 57 matches with Tottenham, he has overseen 27 wins with 82.3 xG and 83.2 xGA. Not great, Bob. In comparison to Mauricio Pochettino who has led PSG to the Semifinals of the Championship League, in his last 57 matches with the Spurs, they had 1.48 xG and a 1.41 xGA. The lack of quality center backs is now exposing itself in a defense that is waning. They are allowing 2.75 Big Chances per match in their last three in the EPL which is bottom-three in the league over that span. The lowly Newcastle attack managed over 4 xG while scoring twice in a 2-2 draw on April 11th. On the road, Tottenham has only won once in their last four matches across all competitions. Everton is struggling as well having gone winless in their last five competitions — but the players still respect (and don’t loathe) their manager, Carlo Ancelotti. Injuries have hit this team hard — and they will be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin as he continues to deal with a groin issue. Ancelotti should have the services of Joshua King, Allan, Lucas Digne, and keeper Jordan Pickford. The loss of DCL up top hurts — but Ancelotti can move Richarlison up to the attacker spot with James Rodriguez feeding him from the midfield. The Toffees are much better when Rodriguez is healthy and on the pitch. Everton has scored in four straight EPL matches at home. And Meyerside Giants have been playing pretty stout defense — they are fifth-best in the EPL since March in xGA. They have not allowed more than one goal in their last five matches at home at Goodison Park.
FINAL TAKE: Everton has matched up well against Tottenham this season with two victories — a 1-0 win on the road on opening day back on September 13th, and then a 5-4 win in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. The Toffees’ injuries are holding them back a bit — but they are playing with better morale and defensive cohesion right now. This is a critical match for both sides as they look to qualify for the Europa League with outside hopes at perhaps a top-four finish which gets them into the Champions League. An upset win is very possible — but Everton should at least leave this match with a draw. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Everton (200106) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-21 |
Real Madrid v. Liverpool OVER 3 |
|
0-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Liverpool (224230) in the second leg in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid won the opening leg of this showdown with their 3-1 victory over the Reds. Liverpool needs either a 2-0 victory in this second leg, or they must score three goals in a victory to advance to the semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Liverpool continued to struggle on defense last week by allowing Real Madrid to score three times. Trent Alexander-Arnold was burned too often on their backline with the Reds’ missing center backs Virgil Van Djik, Joe Gomez, and Joel Matip. The Reds allowed Los Blancos to generate 1.99 expected goals (xG). Liverpool did look better on offense than on Saturday in a 2-1 win against Aston Villa. The Reds generated 2.34 xG against the Villans. Getting Dioga Jota back on the pitch after he was out for a couple of months gives them another playmaker on the pitch which should make things easier for forwards Mohammad Salah and Sadio Mane. Manager Jurgen Klopp will have them playing aggressively in this second leg since they need to score goals. They will be facing a Real Madrid side who is banged up on their backline. Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varone remain out after missing last week’s match — and now right-backs Lucas Varquez and Dani Carvajal are questionable with knocks. Los Blancos may be ripe for an emotional letdown after following up their win on Tuesday with a big 2-1 win over Barcelona in El Clasico on Saturday. Real Madrid did allow Barca to generate 1.78 xG. They are vulnerable on defense. But Los Blancos should score goals with Liverpool needing to play on their front foot. Real Madrid has scored in all but three of their La Liga matches this season — and they have scored in all but one of their nine Champions League matches this season.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams also played to a 3-1 score in the Champions League finals in 2018. Expect a higher-scoring match once again with Liverpool pressured to score plenty of goals. 10* UCL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Liverpool (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-21 |
Manchester City -0.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224226) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals. THE SITUATION: Man City won the first leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win at home at Etihad Stadium against the Black and Yellows. Borussia Dortmund must win this match by a 1-0 score, or win by at least two goals to advance to the semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man City dominated the first match despite needing Phil Foden to score the game-winner in the 90th minute. The Cityzens won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.99 to 0.97 mark. Man City limited the Black and Yellows to just four shots. Pep Guardiola’s team has been sensational on defense this season — they have held their English Premier League and Champions League opponents to just 0.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) which is a big improvement from the 1.01 xGA they posted on defense in their EPL and UCL matches last season. An influx of new talent on their backline along with a shift in tactics with Guardiola less aggressive with his forward press explains the dramatic improvement. Man City comes off a 2-1 loss to Leeds United on Saturday — but don’t read too much into that match. For starters, Guardiola played what was essentially his second-string team with most of his starters from last Tuesday’s Champions League match resting for this second leg. Second, the Cityzens dominated that contest still — they peppered the Whites with 29 shots while holding them to just two shots. They won the xG battle by a dominant 2.56-0.09 mark. But that result should keep them salty for this rematch to ensure they are not looking ahead. Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to only surrender two goals last week since they gave Man City plenty of space for their high press to operate. That is a dangerous formula they will likely have to retain since they must be the aggressors to score at least one goal (and likely more than one goal). The Black and Yellows will be very vulnerable on the counterattack. They surrendered at least two goals for the sixth time in their last seven matches on Saturday in the Bundesliga in their 2-1 victory against a Stuttgart side that is in ninth place in the German top flight. Borussia Dortmund lost the xG battle in that match, 1.04-1.65. In their last seven matches, they have surrendered 1.67 xGA — so their defensive slide is not an aberration of outliers. This is a bad stretch for manager Edin Terzic’s side — they have only won twice in their last seven matches, and they have lost six matches in their last 13 games across all competitions. To compound matters, this team is banged up. Jadeon Sancho remains out with an injury — and he is the team’s second-best player after Erling Haaland. Captain Marco Reds and center-back Mats Hummels are now dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: Winning the Champions League is the number one goal for Manchester City with the English Premier League title well in hand with their 11 point lead. Man City has not advanced to the Semifinals of the Champions League in their four previous seasons under Pep Guardiola after losing to Monaco in the Round of 16, and Quarterfinal exits to Liverpool, Tottenham, and Lyon. This is a big match for this team — look for a dominant effort against an overmatched Borussia Dortmund side who has to play aggressively. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-13-21 |
FC Porto v. Chelsea UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FC Porto (224221) and Chelsea (224222) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea won the first leg of this Quarterfinals battle with the Dragons in the UEFA Champions League. FC Porto must score at least two goals in a regulation-time victory to stay alive to advance to the semifinals.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Porto may have to play more aggressively in this second leg — but they will first have to wrestle the ball away from Chelsea, which will be much easier said than done. Since Thomas Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard for this franchise, they have become possession monsters that are controlling the ball around 65% of the time in their English Premier League matches (they were at 64.6% two EPL matches ago, which was second-best at the time before posting 58% and 59% possession marks in their most recent two EPL matches — more on that below). Tuchel switched from Lampard’s standard 4-3-3 formation to a 3-4-2-1 which has done wonders for clarifying the expectations for his players on the pitch. The results have been a more methodical and plodding style — but also one where the opponent simply does not get many counter opportunities with the Blues able to quickly get five players back on defense. The proof is in the pudding — Chelsea has had eight clean sheets in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Blues limped into their match with Porto last week coming off a 5-2 loss to West Brom — but they played with ten men for over 61 minutes of that match after Thiago was issued a red card at the 29-minute mark. While the wheels fell off on defense (for the first time under Tuchel), they still controlled possession for 58% of that match. The Blues come off a 4-1 win against Crystal Palace on Saturday. That result was a bit of an aberration as Tuchel rested most of his defensive-oriented players for this second leg. He finally played Kai Havertz at forward — and the German scored the first goal before scoring-machine (and defensive liability) Christian Pulisic scored two more goals in the easy win. The Chelsea defense was great — the Eagles just happened to score on their one shot. Havertz and Pulisic will likely be on the bench for this match. Tuchel’s plan will be to play keep-away — and he can rely on his outstanding goaltender, Eduoard Mendy. Under Tuchel in his 16 matches as the Blues’ skipper, they have a minuscule 0.53 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They have only allowed more than a goal once during that time in that outlier effort against a desperate West Brom team where they were played with a man disadvantage. Chelsea did not pressure Porto’s defense much last week despite playing on their front foot. They managed only six shots — and they completed only four passes into the penalty area. Mason Mount scored a nice clinical goal for them — but Ben Chilwell’s second goal at the 85-minute mark occurred because of a defensive mistake. The Dragons are an outstanding defensive team. The dilemma for manager Sergio Conceicao is that he prefers to have his team sit back in a defensive 4-4-2 formation with six players usually back parking the bus. Porto only had possession marks of 34% and 31% in their two Round of 16 matches against Juventus. They prefer to counter-attack — and I suspect this will be the strategy for the Dragons with the hopes they can score in this manner. Porto simply lacks scoring talent — and they risk falling behind 3-0 aggregate if they attempt to play too aggressively and out of character. Despite falling behind after 32 minutes in the first-leg, the Dragons only attempted eight shots in the match.
FINAL TAKE: FC Porto has played four of their last six matches in the Champions League Under 2.5 goals — and Chelsea has played four straight matches in the Champions League Under 2.5 goals. The Blues have also earned clean sheets in seven of their last nine matches in the Champions League. The directive for Tuchel is simple: don’t let Porto score. They simply do not need to pressure the Dragons — and Porto lacks the playmakers to counter these tactics. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FC Porto (224221) and Chelsea (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-10-21 |
Barcelona FC v. Real Madrid +0.25 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201958) plus the goal-line (or as a pick ‘em) versus Barcelona (2019557). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (19-6-4) is unbeaten in their last twelve competitions including a 2-0 win at home against Eibar last Saturday in their most recent match in La Liga. Barcelona (20-5-4) comes off a 1-0 victory against Real Valladolid on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID PLUS THE GOAL-LINE (or as a pick ‘em): The Real Madrid script is pretty standard under manager Zinedine Zidane: win La Liga, go on vacation, return in the fall, play down to some competition, create some drama — then step up and then defeat top-flight opponents. Los Blancos limped into the fall’s incarnation of El Clasico off a loss in La Liga and a loss in the Champions League. Frankly, Zidane’s team was not working very hard. They responded by simply outclassing Barcelona, 3-1, while decisively winning the expected goals (xG) battle, 3.43-1.91. That match took place on October 24th. 5 1/2 months later, Real Madrid is clicking on all cylinders — just as they always are under Zidane. Karim Benzema was out of form in October — but he has raised his scoring average to 0.67 xG per 90 minutes with eight goals in his last six matches. Los Blancos looked dominant on Wednesday in a 3-1 win over Liverpool in the first leg of their Champions League Quarterfinals showdown. Real Madrid is undefeated in their last 12 competitions — and they have won 12 of their last 17 matches with a net xG differential of +15.83. Barcelona is unbeaten in their last 19 matches in La Liga — but 13 of those contests were against teams in the bottom half of the league. Barca has faltered against top-level competition. They were humiliated at home in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches in the Champions League against Paris Saint-Germain by a 4-1 score. I read nothing in their meaningless 1-1 draw against PSG in the second-leg since they lost by a decisive 5-2 aggregate score. In La Liga against their top-three competitors of Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, and Real Madrid, Barcelona is just 1-1-2 with losses to Atletico Madrid and Los Blancos. They scored only four goals in those five matches while surrendering five goals. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has won all four of their matches against Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, and Barcelona by a decisive 7 to 2 goal margin -- and they won the expected goals battle in all four of those matches. Zidane does not have center backs Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane — but those two were not available against Liverpool either (and Ramos has been out most of the season). Zinedine has an embarrassment of riches in being able to rely on Nacho and Eder Militao as his two center backs. And that raises the fundamental problem with this Barcelona side — while Lionel Messi remains sublime, his teammates have lost a step (or three) on a roster that needs to go young (there is a reason why Messi is so frustrated with management). Barca management brought in Ronaldo Koeman as their new manager this season in a questionable decision. Koeman is building up great stats for 538 to marvel at against lesser competition — but they fall flat against teams of equal or superior talent.
FINAL TAKE: Barcelona is in second place in La Liga, one point behind Atletico Madrid. Real Madrid is in third place, three points behind Atletico Madrid. With both teams having an upcoming showdown with Atletico, the winner of this match controls their destiny to win the league title. Real Madrid has one of the best midfield trios in the world in Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, and Casemeiro — and Zinedine deploys a mid-block that has effectively thwarted Messi’s advancement up the pitch. Messi has not scored against Real Madrid in over three years — and he does not have as much help as he once did. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Alfredo di Stefano training facility with their main stadium under reconstruction — and they are still a small dog with analytics sites like 538 considering Barcelona the second-best team in the world (real-world results be damned!). Messi certainly does not think he plays for the second-best team in the world. And here comes Real Madrid: the reigning La Liga champions with four Champions League titles in the last seven seasons. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with the Real Madrid (201958) plus the goal-line (or as a pick ‘em) versus Barcelona (2019557). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-07-21 |
Paris Saint-Germain v. Bayern Munich OVER 3 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). THE SITUATION: PSG advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Champions League with their 1-1 draw against Barcelona on March 10th which secured them a 5-2 aggregate victory in the Round of 16. Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals with a 2-1 win against Lazio to secure a 6-2 aggregate victory in the Round of 16.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians host the first leg at their Allianz Stadium. Not only have the reigning Champions League champs won 18 of their last 19 matches in this European competition, but they have scored at least two goals in 17 of these contests. Bayern Munich has also scored at least two goals in their last three opportunities to host PSG. They will be without striker Robert Lewandowski for the next month after he suffered a knee injury playing for his Polish national team two weeks ago during the international break. Lewandowski has 35 goals in 25 matches in the Bundesliga. But manager Hansi Flick has an embarrassment of riches to turn to as the striker. He tapped former PSG striker, Eric-Maxim Choupo Moting, as the number 10 on Saturday in their 1-0 win at RB Leipzig. I am not worried that the match was low-scoring since that is the Red Bulls style as a counter-attacking group. Bayern Munich has perhaps the best midfield pairing in the world in Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretza with the latter scoring against Leipzig. Flick can also elevate Leon Goretzka or Thomas Muller (who was previously the team’s striker before Lewandowski’s emergence into a superstar) to the striker role. The Bavarians’ high-press with all this talent keeps them an offensive juggernaut even without Lewandowski. But defense has been an issue to this team. They have allowed 35 goals in 25 Bundesliga matches this season. They conceded in both legs in the Round of 16 to Lazio. And they have allowed at least one goal in 11 of their last 13 matches at home. PSG will have a chip on their shoulder for this showdown after losing at home to Lille, 1-0, to fall into second place in Ligue 1. The good news for the Parisians is that Neymar returned to the pitch after being out for two months with an injury. And PSG still has the sensational Kylian Mbappe who has scored 20 goals in Ligue 1 — and he netted a hat trick in PSG’s 4-1 win at Barcelona in the first leg of that Round of 16 match. Manager Mauricio Pochettino will be without creative midfielder Mario Verratti — but his absence may impact their defensive cohesion as much as their attack. The Parisians have scored at least once in 43 straight matches in the Champions League.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Champions League Final last August which Bayern Munich won in a low-scoring 1-0 match. With this rematch being a two-legged quarterfinal where goals scored on the road is the tie-breaker, expect the tactics to be more aggressive in a higher-scoring match. 20* UCL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-21 |
Lazio v. Bayern Munich -1.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224258) minus the goal-line versus Lazio (224257) in the second leg of the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the opening leg of their Round of 16 pairing on the road by a 4-1 score on February 23rd. Lazio must match that effort to force the sudden death tie-breaker — with a victory by four goals being the recipe to advance without extra-time.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are in as good of form right now as they have been since winning the Champions League last summer. Since defeating Lazio in the opening leg, Bayern Munich has won all three of their matches by at least two goals. They have scored 12 goals over that span with Robert Lewandowski scoring six times himself. They come off a 3-1 win at Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Sunday. The Bavarians are in first place in the German top-flight by four points. They have scored 74 goals in 25 league matches. Bayern Munich has also scored 22 goals in their seven Champions League matches this season. They should score multiple times in this one. Hosting this match also helps. The Bavarians have won all six of their home matches in Champions League play under manager Hans Flick who took over late in 20219. They have scored 18 times in those six matches while conceding just three times. Lazio has lost four of their last six matches including a round setback to a Bologna side that is only in 12th place in the Italian Serie A. I Biancocelesti is in just seventh place in Serie A with a subpar W1-D2-L4 mark against the top-four teams in the current table. The underlying metrics even suggest they are slightly overachieving since their expected goal differential is only eighth-best in the league. They are averaging only 1.13 expected goals per match. Ciro Immobile leads the team with 14 goals but he is not in form after going scoreless in his last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was without Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry in the first leg — yet they still dominated that match. While Flick may call for his team to emphasize defensive-tactics, Lazio’s need to play without caution should create plenty of counter-attacking scoring chances. Besides, the Bavarians’ approach this season has been that a good offense removes the need for a good defense. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (224258) minus the goal-line versus Lazio (224257). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-21 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Manchester City UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 match. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg between these two teams on February 24th by a 2-0 score. Borussia Monchengladbach must win by two goals in this second leg to advance — and a 2-0 win would trigger extra-time with both teams even the goal differential and away-goals tie-breakers. This match is being played on a neutral field in Budapest given travel restrictions Germany impacting Monchengladbach.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City got back playing their stingy defense on Saturday in a 3-0 victory at Fulham. The Cityzens held the Cottagers to just 0.26 expected goals (xG). Man City had conceded goals in their previous four EPL matches but manager Pep Guardiola has been aggressively rotation his starting XI over the last month with the English Premier League title likely in hand. The main priority for this club has shifted to winning the Champions League which is an accomplishment that has eluded Guardiola in his tenure here. He rested several key players on Saturday — so this is the A-Team today. Man City is at their best defensively when John Stones and Ruben Dias are paired at center-back. They were together on Saturday and they should form the heart of a four-player backline today. Since a loss to Tottenham in December, the Cityzens have conceded just 0.67 xGA (expected goals allowed) in 22 EPL matches. In their seven Champions League matches this season, Man City has an xGA of 0.31 with six straight clean sheets. Some of this is a result of tactics: Guardiola has reeled-in much of his aggressive pressing attack this season given early-season injuries in the back and facing the reality of a compressed fixture schedule that would challenge the fitness of his players. Pep can’t help but love the new defensive identity of his team. I considered taking Man City minus the goal-line — but the Cityzens are not blowing out teams. They have not scored more than three goals in eight of their last ten matches across all competitions. Guardiola is content with clean sheet wins. Borussia Monchengladbach is a mess with six straight losses. Die Fohlen has folded ever since manager Marco Rose announced that he was leaving for rival Borussia Dortmund at the end of the season. This slide has some whispering that Dortmund may have overreached with the hire — and this dynamic persuaded me to conclude that Rose will not risk playing aggressively since that could result in an embarrassing loss. Look for Monchengladbach to be pragmatic — and this has been their tactical approach as of late. In their last six matches in the Bundesliga, they have produced just 6.54 xG — but they have conceded only 6.53 xGA. That defensive mark is sixth-best in the German top-flight over that span which is better than their 8th best mark defensively for the season. They recently played to 1-0 losses to top-six teams Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund — and I think that is a hint to how Rose will play this match.
FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach only allowed 10 shots in the first leg to the Cityzens with Man City managing just 1.5 xG. But Die Fohlen only managed three shots resulting in 0.20 xG. Man City has seen under 3.5 combined goals in five of their last seven Champions League matches and ten of their last 18 EPL contests. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (224249) and Manchester City (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Southampton v. Manchester City UNDER 3 |
Top |
2-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W9-D6-L12) snapped a nine-game winless streak with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday. Man City (W20-D5-L3) saw their 28-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday in a 2-0 loss at home to Manchester United.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring the two goals against the Blades, the Saints’ offensive attack has been stagnant this season. They had only scored five goals in their previous nine matches before scoring twice on Saturday. But it was not all good news for manager Ralph Hassenhuttl as his leading scorer, Danny Ings, suffered a muscle injury that will keep him out at least a month and perhaps the rest of the season. Ings leads the team with eight goals. The Southampton attack has overachieved even with their 33 goals in 27 matches. Their expected goals mark (xG) is sixth-worst in the league and their average below 1.0 non-penalty expected goals per game. The Saints have probably deserved better on defense — while they have allowed 44 goals, their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) drops to 38.44 this season. They have surrendered 28 goals in their 14 matches on the road — but their xGA plummets to 23.47. Against this Man City juggernaut, Hassenhuttl will likely keep his team compact in their 4-4-2 system while rarely pushing into their 4-2-2-2 pressing formation. Man City looked out-of-synch against the Red Devils in Sunday’s Manchester Derby. The toll of the COVID season with a crammed fixture schedule may finally be taking its toll on this team that likely has the EPL championship locked up. The Champions League becomes the focus for this team — so here comes Pep Roulette from manager Pep Guardiola regarding resting players. I waited to release this play on the announcement of his starting XI. His lineup lacks a true forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero on the bench — Phil Foden may be playing the “false nine” spot. Raheem Sterling also is on the bench which leaves a bunch of their firepower on the bench. The mix of midfielders remain talented — but they have not played a ton of minutes together so cohesion is an issue. I am not worried about the stout Man City defense despite them conceding goals in three straight matches. They surrendered a goal to Wolverhampton last week despite posting a tiny xGA of 0.40 in that match. They have still only given up seven goals in their last 17 EPL matches with ten clean sheets. The improved defensive play from the Cityzens has been generated from both an influx of new talented defensive backs and a less-aggressive pressing approach — both of those dynamics will be in play for this match.
FINAL TAKE: Man City won the reverse fixture on December 19th by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Southampton (200157) and Manchester City (200158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-21 |
Leeds United v. West Ham United -0.25 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W13-D6-L7) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Manchester City last Saturday. Leeds United (W11-D2-L13) comes off a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers might have outplayed the best team in the English Premier League last weekend — they posted an expected goals mark (xG) of 1.73 while limiting the Cityzens to just 0.76 expected goals (xGA). West Ham was unbeaten in their previous four matches — and they are W7-D1-L2 in their last ten matches across all competitions. Getting Michail Antonio healthy again and back on the pitch makes a big difference. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goals involvement over the last four matches. The addition of Jesse Lingard has also added prowess to this team in the middle of the pitch. In his five matches since joining the team, West Ham has seen their xG rise from 1.4 to 1.54 per match — and they are now averaging 2.2 Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with at least a 35% chance of success) from their 1.9 make before the arrival of Lingard. West Ham is also tough at home where they have won five of their last six matches — with the lone blemish being a loss to reigning EPL champs, Liverpool. Leeds United is beginning to fade a bit after their unique aggressive style took the league by storm in the fall. The Peacocks have lost three of their last four matches along with seven of their last ten. They are overperforming in goals scored and goals allowed relative to their xG expectations. And while they have 18 points on the road, their expected points (xPTS) fall to 15.08 with them overachieving both goals scored and goals allowed. Leeds has lost their last two matches on the road. They have surrendered the most Big Chances in the league when playing on the road — and they have not had a clean sheet on the road in their last five matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the reverse fixture on the road on December 11th by a 2-1 score. Leeds has seen two of their league matches end in a draw this season — so a winner is likely. The Hammers are in great form and should overwhelm this promoted side. 25* English Premier League Monday Match of the Month with the West Ham (200130) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Leicester v. Brighton & Hove Albion |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). THE SITUATION: Brighton and Hove Albion (W5-D11-L10) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at West Bromwich Albion last Saturday. Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at Burnley on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Brighton is a prime example of a team dramatically underperforming in respect to the analytics projections. In terms of the expected goals metric (xG), the Seagulls are the fifth-best team in the English Premier League. In practice, they are only three points safe from relegation. Brighton dominated West Brom by a 3.28-0.73 xG but lost by a 1-0 score. Missing two penalty kicks did not help. That setback came on the heels of them losing 2-1 to Crystal Palace despite dominating the xG battle by a 3.03-0.27 margin. I have written extensively about Brighton — and, to be fair, one of the reasons why they are underachieving their expected goals mark is because they lack elite goal-scorers. But they are also unlucky — especially on defense. Manager Graham Potter’s tactics are putting his team in a position to win matches consistently. This may make them a precarious favorite — but they remain very dangerous as they proved earlier this year when they upset Liverpool. When playing at home in Amex Stadium, the Seagulls have the second-best expected points (xPTS) despite only 10 points and one victory. They lead the EPL in Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate based on league averages) and in expected goals allowed (xGA). They allow only 4.76 shots inside the box which is the second-fewest in the league. Sooner or later, the Regression Gods will arrive for this team. Creating scoring opportunities and limiting your opponent’s scoring chances is the foundation for success. Leicester City is not in good form right now with two losses and a draw in their last three matches. When the Foxes are at full strength, they have a legitimate claim in being one of the top four teams in the league. But because they cannot afford to pay for a bunch of good players, their roster depth is not in the same class as the elite programs. Their attack suffers when their trio of Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes, and James Maddison are not playing together — and both Barnes and Maddison are out with injuries. Leicester City is also without Jonny Evans, Wes Morgan, and Ayoze Perez. These losses are devastating. Despite their 1-1 draw midweek, they lost the xG battle to the Cherries by a 1.75-1.23 xG margin. The Foxes have been outperforming the metrics all season on both ends of the pitch. While they are currently third in the EPL standings, they fall to sixth (and behind Brighton) in xPTS. Recent losses to Arsenal and Slavia Prague in the Europa League are not encouraging regarding how this team will proceed given all their injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture by a 3-0 score before defeating the Seagulls in the FA Cup on February 10th by a 1-0 score. The Foxes have more injuries now. A victory now earns Brighton some revenge and three crucial points to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200098) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-21 |
Manchester City -1 v. Borussia Monchengladbach |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). THE SITUATION: Man City is the best team in the world right now riding an 18-match winning streak across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Arsenal on Sunday. Borussia Monchengladbach is struggling after a 2-1 loss to Mainz on Saturday. This match will be played on a neutral field in Hungary given COVID restrictions in Germany right now.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cityzens are cruising with 13 straight wins in the English Premier League which the metrics rank as the top professional league in Europe right now. Man City is demolishing their English competition with 32 goals scored and just three conceded during their 13 EPL matches since their last loss on November 21st to Tottenham. Manager Pep Guardiola had to change tactics out of necessity given some injuries to their attackers to pull-in the reins a bit in his aggressive pressing tactics. This decision is wise in hindsight given the increased work-load for the players in the condensed schedule due to COVID. Not being as aggressive has helped protect their backline — but the organization also made a number of great transfers to fortify their defense. The combination of Ruben Dias and John Stones in the middle of their backline has been extraordinary — they are allowing just 0.52 expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing together. Man City has allowed just two goals in their last ten EPL matches — and they have only allowed three of their last 14 opponents in the EPL to generate at least 1.0 expected goals (xG). The Cityzens have 18 clean sheets in their last 25 matches across all competitions. And in their six Champions League Group Stage matches, Man City had five clean sheets — and their six opponents combined for a mere 1.6 xG. In the EPL, Man City has a +32.79 net expected goals differential — and the next closest team in that metric is Chelsea’s whose +15.73 net xG differential is less than half their number. And they are getting healthier with midfielder Kevin DeBruyne healthy back on the pitch over the weekend. Borussia Monchengladbach is winless in their last four matches in the Bundesliga — and they have lost two in a row at home against Mainz and Cologne who are both in the bottom-five in the league. Die Foals has taken a slide since manager Marco Rose announced he would be leaving the team for Borussia Dortmund in the offseason. They are just eight the German top flight this season expected goal net differential. The scoring is down for this team with Alassane Pea and Marcus Thuram only contributing three goals and one assist apiece after combining for 20 goals and 18 assists last season. After averaging 2.16 xG last season, Borussia Monchengladbach has fallen to averaging just 1.53 xG this year. And in their last four matches, Die Foals are managing just 0.69 xG per contest.
FINAL TAKE: Not being able to play the first leg at home really hurts this team — they have won three of their last ten matches away from home. These Champions League neutral site matches give a big edge to the road team since their goals still contribute to the “away goals” first tie-breaker if there is a tie in net goals after the second leg. Guardiola has plenty of incentives to run up the score against a Borussia Monchengladbach who has to travel for this match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Favorite of the Month with Manchester City (224225) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-21 |
Crystal Palace v. Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W5-D11-L8) is unbeaten in their last six English Premier League matches after their 0-0 draw at home to Aston Villa back on February 13th. Crystal Palace (W8-D5-L11) has lost four of their last six EPL matches after their 3-0 loss to Burnley on two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Seagulls have been the analytics darlings all season despite little results to show for it. While their 26 points this season places them in relegation danger in 16th place in the EPL table, their 38.78 expected points (xPTS) using the expected goals (xG) metric is sixth-best in the league. With recent wins against traditional Big Six sides in Liverpool and Tottenham, manager Graham Potter’s side is finally seeing the results the underlying metrics have called for. It starts with their strong defensive play — Brighton has now registered five clean sheets in their last six matches. Potter’s decision to replace keeper Matt Ryan with Robert Sanchez whose ability to make quality saves (and not make mistakes) has played a big role in their recent clean sheet run. The Seagulls have only won once in their 12 home games at Amex Stadium but the metrics suggest they are tough to beat on their home pitch. While Brighton only has 10 points, they have 25.75 xPTS at home which is the second-most in the EPL. They have scored only 11 goals at home — but their xG is 23.42. And while they have allowed only 15 goals at home, their expected goals allowed (xGA) actually drops to 10.30. Crystal Palace has been blanked in two straight matches while generating little action in front of the opposing net. They managed only 0.63 xG in their loss to Burnley after generating just 0.44 xG in their 2-0 loss to Leeds United in their previous match. Manager Roy Holgorsen misses his best attacker, Wilfried Zaha, who remains out with an injury. They have not scored this season without Zaha being on the pitch. Furthermore, not only has Crystal Palace lost of their last 20 matches when playing without Zaha but they have won just once while scoring only six goals in their last 13 matches in the EPL without Zaha — and they generated just 15.5 xG in those 13 games. The Eagles are in 14th place in the table — but they fall to 17th place in xPTS. Crystal Palace is W4-D2-L6 on the road for 14 points — but their xPTS drop to 13.52 on the road.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Palace on October 18th. The Eagles had Zaha for that match with the Seagulls still struggling on the pitch to meet their deeper analytics expectations. Brighton needs the three points to get clear from relegation — and they are the vastly superior side. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200046) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-21-21 |
Newcastle United v. Manchester United UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-119 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L13) lost their seventh match in their last nine on Monday in a 2-0 setback at Chelsea. Manchester United (W13-D7-L4) come off a disappointing 1-1 draw at West Bromwich Albion.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle only registered 0.71 expected goals against the Blues to begin the week. That effort came on the heels of them scoring three times against the Saints in their previous despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fourth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer once again for this match with Callum Wilson still out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. He has been involved in 15 of the team’s 25 goals. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. On the plus side, the Magpies have only allowed more than two goals just once in their last twelve matches. Man United has only won once in their last five EPL matches. They registered a mere 0.61 xG against a suspect West Brom team with a leaky defense. The Red Devils have scored 50 goals this season — but their xG plummets to just 42.08 which suggests the team has been rather fortunate in the goal-scoring department. At home at Old Trafford, Man United has 25 goals but just 22.50 xG. Man United did score four times in their 4-0 win against Real Sociedad in the Europa League — but fatigue and rotation may play a role in this match on the short turnaround. The Red Devils tend to have their best scoring games when playing a team that plays on their front foot. But when they play a cautious defensive-minded club, Man United tends to struggle to score goals. They have been consistent defensively — they have held their last six opponents in the EPL to just 0.92 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Newcastle has been blanked in seven of their last eight matches on the road. They lost at home to Man United in the reverse fixture in October by a 4-1 score. Bruce would be thrilled with a draw in this match — expect a very conservative approach from the Magpies. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200081) and Manchester United (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-21 |
Leeds United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W8-D6-L10) has won two of their last three EPL matches after their 2-1 win at Southampton on Sunday. Leeds United (W10-D2-L11) has lost two of their last three matches with their 4-2 loss at Arsenal on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have righted their ship after a winless eight-match stretch. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has defeated the Saints and Arsenal with a draw against Leicester City in their last three EPL matches. Being eliminated from the Europa League and now de-emphasizing the FA Cup has allowed Nuno to privilege his starting XI to his best players. Wolverhampton can struggle given their lack of depth during busy fixture schedules — and the injury to Raul Jimenez took away their best goal-scorer. Adding Willian Jose to bolster the offensive attack last month has helped. The Wolves play much defense when back at home where their opponent’s expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.05 is much better than their 1.49 xGA when on the road. Wolverhampton has won the expected goals battle in three straight matches. Leeds United has lost the xG battle in six of their last seven matches. The Whites may be suffering from fatigue given the active pressing attack that manager Marcelo Bielsa deploys without much of a bench. Leeds is riddled with injuries right now as well to further rob them of depth. The Whites have 18 points on the road in their 12 matches — but their expected points (xPTS) plummets to 12.46 in those road matches. Leeds is last in the EPL in xGA when playing away from home.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture by a 1-0 score when they played on October 19th. The Wolves have won four straight matches against Leeds which may be a testament to Nuno’s defensive tactics exposing the unique aggressive attack that Bielsa deploys. 25* English Premier League Friday Afternoon Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200010) minus the goal-line versus Leeds United (200009). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-21 |
Liverpool v. RB Leipzig +0.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201) in the first leg of the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool comes off a 3-1 loss at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. RB Leipzig defeated Augsburg on Friday by a 2-1 score in the Bundesliga. This match will be played on a neutral field in Budapest.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is ravaged with injuries and they are in as worse of form as they have been in over three years. Manager Jurgen Klopp may be without ten front-line players for this match. The crisis starts at center back where they have lost Virgil Van Dijk, Joel Matip, and Joe Gomez to season-ending injuries. Klopp may not have the services of James Milner and Fabinho who suffered knocks over the weekend. These injuries in the back have forced Klopp to move Fabinho and Jordan Henderson from holding midfielder positions to center back. Not only does that put them out of position but it takes away from Klopp’s ability to implement their high press. The Reds’ attackers are not in their best form either with fatigue (and recovering from COVID for Mo Salah) seeming to be issues. Diogo Jota was a shot in the arm for this team after transferring from Wolverhampton but the attacking midfielder is yet another player on the shelf. Liverpool limps into this match with three straight losses in games where they lost the expected goals battle in each contest. The Reds have lost five of their last seven across all competitions. Since the end of the Group Stage in the Champions League in December, Liverpool has won only five of their fifteen matches with six losses. The Reds only allowed three goals in four Group Stage UCL matches — their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 9.4 suggests they were very fortunate. Since Christmas, Liverpool has an xGA of 1.28 which is a significant dropoff from their 1.03 xGA last season. The Reds have also struggled away from home in the EPL this season with a W4-D5-L3 mark as compared to their W7-D2-L3 record at home at Anfield. RB Leipzig survived the Group of Death in the Champions League with a clutch 3-2 victory against Manchester United to eliminate the Red Devils from the competition. PSG was also in their Group H. The Red Bulls have since only lost two of their last thirteen matches — and they enter this match on a four-game winning streak. Defense was an issue in the Champions League — but this is usually a tight defensive team. They have registered nine clean sheets across all competitions since advancing to the Round of 16. RB Leipzig has an xGA of 0.88 in the Bundesliga which is the third-best defensive mark across the top-five leagues in Europe. The Red Bulls leads the German top-flight with a +24.3 expected goals net differential.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be relatively new to the elite European competition levels — but this is an experienced core of players that went to the Semifinals of the Champions League last summer. They will not fear the moment. They were supposed to host this first leg but COVID restrictions in Germany required this match to be moved to a neutral field in Budapest. That offers little help to Liverpool who is simply not playing with much confidence right now. Klopp publicly conceded that his team would not successfully defend their EPL title this year given their current place in the standings — but I don’t think they can flip the switch in European competition. They tried flipping the switch at home against Man City — yet they were dominated by a 4-1 score earlier this month. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Month with RB Leipzig (224202) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-21 |
Newcastle United v. Chelsea UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W7-D4-L12) has won two of their last three matches in the English Premier League with their 3-2 win against Southampton last Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D6-L6) has won four straight games across all competitions with their last match in the EPL last Sunday when they defeated Sheffield United on the road, 2-1.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle scored three times against the Saints last week despite registering a mere 0.79 expected goals (xG) in that match. The Magpies have scored the fifth-fewest goals in the EPL with their xG also ranking fifth-worst amongst the twenty clubs in the top flight. Manager Steve Bruce will be without his top scorer in this match as well with Callum Wilson out with a hamstring injury. Wilson leads the team with 10 goals with the second-leading scorer for the team only registering four goals. Wilson averages 0.56 xG per 90 minutes — and he accounts for 53% of the expected goals for Newcastle this season either from goals or assists. His absence will likely compel Bruce to have his team play even more cautiously. The Magpies have only allowed more two goals once in their last eleven matches. Chelsea has only allowed one goal in the five matches under new manager Thomas Tuchel — and that was an own-goal against the Blades last week. The Blues then played on Thursday when they shutout Barnsdale, 1-0, in FA Cup action. Chelsea is dominating possession which is helping them limit scoring opportunities for their opponents. The Blues’ four EPL opponents under Tuchel are averaging just 0.55 xG — and they have not allowed a Big Chance (representing a scoring opportunity with a success rate of 35% or higher). But Chelsea is not generating many scoring opportunities themselves under Tuchel. They are averaging only 0.93 non-penalty kick xG in their four league matches under Tuchel. They have scored only six goals in the five matches under Tuchel.
FINAL TAKE: Tuchel has holding midfielder N’Golo Kante healthy again to fortify the defensive structure of his team. Chelsea defeated Newcastle, 2-0, in the reverse fixture on November 21st. That feels like the final score for this rematch — although 1-0 might be the result. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200089) and Chelsea (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-21 |
Fulham v. Everton -0.25 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-117 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D4-L6) earned a late 3-3 draw at Manchester United last Saturday in their most recent match in the English Premier League. Fulham (W2-D9-L11) is winless in their last 12 matches after a 0-0 draw with West Ham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees showed grit last week by scoring in the final moments of stoppage time to earn the 1-point from the draw with Man United who is currently second place in the EPL. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s then followed that up on Wednesday by outlasting Tottenham by a 5-4 score to advance in the FA Cup. Everton has scored eight goals in their last two matches — both against traditional Big Six sides — and they have scored ten goals in their last three matches across all competitions. This is a team that tends to feast on the bottom half of the table as well — they have a +3.08 net expected points differential against these clubs. They return home where they will have something to prove at Goodison Park after a flat 2-0 effort in their most recent home match in league play. Ancelotti is dealing with some injuries for this match with forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin and keeper Jordan Pickford out and defenseman Lucas Digne questionable with a knock. While the Toffees will miss DCL up top, his goal-scoring is mostly from poaching. Richarlison will move up the pitch to take that role — and the team still has James Rodriguez in the middle of the pitch. The Colombian is the straw who stirs the drink for this team when he is healthy. Fulham is struggling to score goals — they have managed only four goals in their last eight matches. Over their last 12 games, they have generated only 0.96 expected goals. The Cottagers are also leaky on defense. In their last six matches, Fulham is bottom-four in Big Chances Allowed (representing scoring opportunities with a success rate of 35% or higher). In their last seven matches, the Cottagers are allowing an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.74. And against teams in the top-seven in the EPL table (including Everton), they have an xGA of 1.98.
FINAL TAKE: The concern for manager Scott Parker with his Fulham team is that he changed tactics to play more conservatively after their 3-2 loss at home to Everton on November 22nd. The Toffees generated 1.99 xG that match. The Cottagers saw a short-term improvement in defense — but this better play has waned while the Fulham attack has suffered. Everton needs this victory after giving away points in some recent matches (like Newcastle). 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with Everton (200098) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200097). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-21 |
Manchester City v. Liverpool UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). THE SITUATION: Man City (W14-D5-L2) has won nine straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-0 win at Burnley on Wednesday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L4) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Brighton and Hove Albion on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manchester City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season with manager Pep Guardiola shifting tactics a bit. He also found a dominant defensive pairing at center back in Ruben Dias partnering with John Stones. In the Cityzens’ last 12 matches which has featured this pairing, they have surrendered just one goal. Perhaps even more impressive, Man City has allowed a mere 5.43 combined expected goals (xG) over that span. Their defense has been suffocating. Burnley barely registered 0.07 xG on Wednesday. They have not allowed these last 12 opponents to generate more than 1.0 xG. And even the one goal they allowed over this span was a meaningless stoppage-time goal to Chelsea in a 3-1 victory. Man City has eight clean sheets in their last nine EPL matches — and they have an incredible 16 clean sheets in their last 20 contests. Yet all this defense is coming at a cost. The offensive attack has been reeled in a bit. The Cityzens are averaging 1.99 xG this season which is a drop off from their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG marks in the previous two seasons. Some of this is tactics — but some of this dropoff is also because the starting XI is without key scoring talent. Their best pure goal-scorer is Sergio Aguero but has barely played this season. Their best overall offensive player for goal-scoring, assists, and penalty kicks is Kevin DeBruyne but he is out with an injury. Man City has not registered 2.0 xG or higher in three straight matches — they are simply not generating many Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a success rate of 35% or higher). On the road, while the Cityzens have scored 24 goals, their xG drops to 19.15 for a more modest 1.74 xG per match. Liverpool is in a scoring slump right now in a combination of bad luck and attackers out-of-form. The Reds have not scored in three straight home matches — and it has been a stunning 348 minutes since they last scored a goal at home at Anfield. In their last four matches overall, Liverpool is averaging just 1.48 xG per match. Granted, the Reds expect Sadio Mane to be back on the pitch for this showdown — and the underlying numbers indicate that they should be seeing more scoring. Well, no kidding! Facing an opponent who will not be content to park the bus in back will help. But Man City is not the side a team wants to face to break out of their scoring doldrums. Jurgen Klopp’s team has been strong defensively still — even with plenty of injuries. Since losing defensive back Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool is allowing just 1.08 expected goals (xGA) per match. And some of this defensive success comes from Klopp also choosing to rein in his offensive attack. One of the residual impacts of the altered schedule this season given COVID’s impact on the 2019-20 campaign is a condensed schedule. Uber-aggressive pressing teams like Man City and Liverpool have been less ambitious simply because of player fatigue. Expect both managers to exhibit caution in this showdown. Guardiola will be satisfied with a draw.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on November 8th in a match where both defenses were not playing nearly as well as they are now. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200057) and Liverpool (200058). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
West Ham United -0.25 v. Fulham |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-60 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W11-D5-L6) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 3-1 win at Aston Villa on Wednesday. Fulham (W2-D8-L11) is winless in their last 11 matches after losing at home to Leicester City on Wednesday, 2-0.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers have been a solid team all season — but they become much better when Michail Antonio is healthy and on the pitch. Antonio was out for the last few weeks of 2020 but his return has helped propel West Ham during this recent run. Getting midfielder Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United always gives this team an experienced goal scorer — he found the back of the net twice in his debut with the team against the Villans. West Ham started playing much better during Project Restart this summer. Manager David Moyes’ tactical decision to move Antonio up to forward rather than attacking midfielder — a decision out of necessity at the time given injuries — has proven to be fruitful over the longer-run. The Hammers generated 1.92 expected goals (xG) against a solid defensive club in Aston Villa midweek while generating 20 shots. West Ham averages 1.60 xG this season while allowing only 1.27 expected goals (xGA). The Hammers feast on the weaker teams in the league — in their 11 matches against bottom-half of the table teams, West Ham averages 1.89 xG with a net expected goals differential of +8.07. Fulham started playing better when manager Scott Parker abandoned the aggressive pressing system that worked in the Champions League but was getting blistered in the top-flight. But while the counter-attacking approach has helped them earn more draws, they still are allowing 1.74 xGA this season — and that number rises to 1.97 xGA against teams in the top-six. Yet the change in tactics has made the Cottagers toothless in their attack. Their 17 goals are the third-fewest in the EPL. They have only scored four times in their last eleven EPL contests — and they have a 0.90 xG during that span. Fulham has registered a mere eight shots inside the six-yard box this season which is the fewest in the league. Unfortunately for Parker, they have also conceded 28 shots in the box which is the most in the EPL. Playing at home at Cottage Park has offered little help as Fulham’s 6 points are the fewest of all teams in their home park. Their seven goals scored at home is also the lowest mark in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams on November 7th in a 1-0 victory. The Hammers registered three shots inside the six-yard box while posting a healthy 1.56 xG. The Hammers are in better form now. Getting three points from the win in this one could put West Ham in the top-four in the table going into next week. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Match of the Month with the West Ham United (200049) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Chelsea v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W9-D6-L6) won their first match under new manager Thomas Tuchel on Sunday in their 2-0 victory against Burnley. Tottenham (W9-D6-L5) has lost two in a row after their 1-0 loss at Brighton and Hove Albion.
THE SITUATION: The tenor of this Chelsea team under Tuchel has been to dominate possession while staying conservative in taking chances yet suffocating their opponent’s attacking ambition. Burnley managed only one shot on Sunday — and that was only in stoppage time — while generating a mere 0.14 expected goals (xG). In their 0-0 draw with Wolverhampton, the Blues limited the Wolves to just 0.63 xG. Chelsea dominated possession in both matches controlling the ball for 66% and 67% of the time. The Blues have allowed only five combined shots in both games. Yet Chelsea is not being overly aggressive in their attack. They managed only 1.35 xG in their victory against Burnley after generating just 0.81 xG against Wolverhampton. Tottenham only managed 0.44 xG in their loss at Brighton. The Spurs’ offensive attack is toothless without Harry Kane who remains out with an ankle injury. Since leaving the match against Liverpool at halftime, Tottenham has managed only 0.48 xG in 135 minutes with just one goal, nine shots, and zero Big Chances (representing a 35% or better success rate). Manager Jose Mourinho’s tactics have quickly been exposed in the top-flight — everyone knows he wants his side to score on the occasional counter-attack with his high-skilled scoring talent like Kane. The Spurs are wilting against opponents not taking the bait in being overly aggressive. But Tottenham remains fundamentally-sound on defense. They have allowed only 21 goals which are the second-fewest in the English Premier League.
FINAL TAKE: I waited to endorse this play until Tuchel announced his lineup at 2 PM ET — he is still learning his roster and tinkering with starting XI lineups. A starting group with Christian Pulisic and Tammy Abraham and/or Oliver Giroud might have scared me off. Instead, both attack-minded players are on the bench with solid-defensive minded midfielders like Mason Mount, Mateo Kovacic, and Jorginho are on the pitch. Kai Havertz is injured for this match which takes away an offensive-oriented player. Expect Chelsea to control possession again but not be too foolish in rushing players into the attack. 25* EPL Thursday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200033) and Tottenham (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-21 |
Brighton & Hove Albion v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brighton and Hove Albion (200037) and Liverpool (200038). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W4-D9-L8) is unbeaten in their last four matches across all competitions after their 1-0 win against Tottenham on Sunday. Liverpool (W11-D7-L3) has won their last two matches with their 3-1 win against West Ham on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brighton has registered three straight clean sheets as they are playing outstanding defense right now. They held the Spurs to just 0.44 expected goals (xG) over the weekend. The Seagulls have allowed 29 goals this season — but they are fifth-best in the English Premier League with 24.70 expected goals allowed. But they have only scored 21 times in their 23 EPL matches.
|
02-02-21 |
Southampton v. Manchester United UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
0-9 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D5-L7) has lost three straight games in the English Premier League after their 1-0 loss to Aston Villa on Saturday. Manchester United (W12-D5-L4) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Southampton attack has stalled as they have only one goal in their last three matches along with just three goals in their last eight contests. Perhaps the cause for this decline was simply the Regression Gods finally visiting the Saints after the summer and then fall in the new season where their scoring numbers were exceeding their underlying numbers. Southampton has scored 27 times this season but their expected goals (xG) fall to just 21.14. The Saints average just 1.11 xG per match which is sixth-worst in the EPL. Their non-penalty kick xG is only 1.03. And in their nine road matches in league play, Southampton has an xG of 8.43 as compared to their 12 goals scores which suggest they have been overachieving from their 1.33 goals-per-game road mark. The Southampton defense has been solid — they limited a potent Aston Villa attack over the weekend to just 0.77 xG. For the season, the Saints allow 1.33 expected goals (xGA). Manchester United is in a scoring slump of their own with just three goals in their last four matches. Marcus Rashford is out-of-form — he has managed only six shots inside the box in his last seven matches. But the Red Devils’ defensive effort remains consistent. They limited Arsenal to just 0.90 xG on Saturday with the Gunners’ best scoring chance only registering a 9% chance of success. Man United has allowed 15 goals in their 10 home matches — but their xGA drops to 12.46. Yet the Red Devils generate 0.30 fewer expected goals when playing at home at Old Trafford.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton has seen 13 of their 20 EPL matches this season generate two combined goals or less. Man United has played seven straight EPL matches with no more than three combined goals scored — and four of those matches saw less than three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Southampton (200025) and Manchester United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-31-21 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W9-D6-L4) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Thursday. Brighton (W3-D9-L8) last played on Wednesday when they settled for a 0-0 draw at home against Fulham.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs’ attack was toothless in that important match against Liverpool — they managed only three shots and their expected goals mark was a meager 0.11 xG. Now this team will be without Harry Kane today (confirmed with their lineup announcement at 1:15 PM ET) — he has scored or assisted in 24 of Tottenham’s 34 goals this season. As it is, the Spurs were overachieving in their goal-scoring this season with their 34 goals scored betrayed by their expected goals mark of just 28.73 xG. They go back on the road where they have scored 19 times — but their 13.09 xG is a big dropoff that is bottom-ten in the EPL. Manager Jose Mourinho plays a cautious style of play that relies on the elite ball-striking efficiency of Kane and midfielder Son Heung-min. Tottenham’s defensive efforts remain elite — they lead the EPL with the fewest Big Chances (35% or better statistical success rate) when playing on the road. Brighton is underachieving relative to their expected goals numbers. While they are in 17th place with 18 points, their 31.57 expected Points would place them in the middle of the table. This team is the opposite of the Spurs — they create plenty of scoring chances but they lack the elite offensive players who take advantage of these opportunities with skilled shots on target. They have scored only 22 goals in their 20 matches — and they have just 10 goals in their ten matches at home at AmEx Stadium. The Seagulls are tough to score on. While they have surrendered 29 goals, their expected goals allowed drops to 24.33. This team was getting mediocre play out of goalkeeper Mat Ryan who was responsible for some soft goals. Robert Sanchez has been much better since taking over midseason — and he has two straight clean sheets. Brighton ranks second in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA), non-penalty kick xGA, and Big Chances allowed when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs won the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 1st by a 2-1 score. Tottenham generated 2.00 xG in that match with Ryan rather than Sanchez the Seagulls’ keeper — but Kane accounted for 1.36 of that xG himself. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
Newcastle United v. Everton -1 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D3-L5) enters this match off a 1-1 draw at home against Leicester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L11) has lost five straight matches in the English Premier League with their 2-1 loss at Leeds United on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees have won five of their last eight matches in EPL play with only one loss over that span. This side has stepped on the defensive end of the pitch where they are allowing just 1.20 expected goals (xGA) in those last eight matches. Manager Carlo Ancelotti has overseen this stretch despite dealing with a host of injuries since the fall. But now his starting XI is back near full strength with his big four of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, James Rodriguez, Richarlison, and Lucas Digne all healthy again. When these four have all started together in six matches this season, Everton has scored 17 goals with a 2.8 goals-per-game average. They now host a slumping Newcastle side with a manager in Steve Bruce who is sitting on a red-hot hot seat. The Magpies are allowing 1.68 xGA this season despite playing a 4-4-2 formation which basically has eight players parking the bus in the back. Over their last four matches, Newcastle is last in expected goals allowed. The Magpies are only averaging 1.03 expected goals per match as well. Their play has particularly suffered away from St. James where they are second-to-last in expected goals differential. Newcastle has lost six of their ten matches on the road. They have the second-worst xGA away from home. And they have not scored in their last 385 minutes on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Everton should have plenty of energy having taken a two-week hiatus because of a COVID outbreak earlier this month. With two matches in hand, the Toffees can make a big run up the table. Everton will also have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Newcastle, 2-1, on November 1st. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Everton (200150) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Leicester v. Everton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W12-D2-L5) has won three matches in a row in the English Premier League with their 2-0 win against Chelsea on January 19th. Everton (W10-D2-L5) plays their first EPL match since January 12th when they defeated Wolverhampton on the road by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City will be without their top attacker in Jamie Vardy who is out a few weeks with a hernia injury. Vardy averages 0.76 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Foxes' recent success has coincided with the return of attacking midfielder James Maddison to the pitch — but he plays better when he can complement Vardy. Manager Brendan Rodgers will continue to lean on the outstanding play of his team on defense. They held Chelsea to just 0.69 expected goals (xG) — and they have registered two straight clean sheets in the EPL. Since December 20th, Leicester City has an expected goals allowed mark that is third-best in the EPL. Getting holding midfielder Wilfred Ndidi healthy again has been vital — the Foxes have not allowed an opponent to register even 1.0 xG since his return to the pitch. In their last six EPL matches, Leicester City has an xGA of 0.85. Everton will be rested for this match although they did play an FA Cup match on Sunday in a 3-0 victory against Sheffield Wednesday. But manager Carlo Ancelotti will have a group that has not been overworked. The Toffees are playing great defensively as well — they have held their last six opponents to just 1.20 xGA per match. Everton has not allowed more than one goal in eight straight EPL matches — and they have given up just five combined goals over that span. The Toffees have seen two or fewer combined goals in six of their last eight EPL contests. The offense has struggled with just 0.60 expected goals per match in their last four EPL games. They have overachieved with five goals scored from just 2.4 xG during that span. They do have forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin back after he has been out — but this remains a team that is playing more cautiously on the pitch than they were earlier in the season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton won the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 26th with a 2-0 victory. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* English Premier League Wednesday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Everton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-27-21 |
Fulham v. Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 |
|
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Brighton and Hove Albion (200134) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200133). THE SITUATION: Brighton (W3-D8-L8) ended a winless streak in their last nine matches with their 1-0 victory against Leeds United on January 16th. Fulham (W-2-D6-L10) is winless in their last eight matches after their 2-1 loss to Manchester United last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION: This is a value play on the Seagulls in an important match for them to move comfortably away from the relegation zone. Brighton are the laptop darlings this season with their expected Points (xPTS) using the expected goals (xg)/expected goals allowed (xGA) metric has them well ahead of their 17 points which places them in 17th place in the EPL table. The Seagulls have 28.95 xPTS which is the ninth-best in the league. This has been an unlucky team. For example, while they induce, on average, the fifth-longest shot distance from the goal by their opponents, they are also seeing the highest goals-scored percentage per shot allowed. That number should regress with the Seagulls allowing fewer goals. Brighton will be anxious to earn their first victory at home in their Amex Stadium as well. They have five draws and four losses in their nine home matches despite averaging 1.92 xG and surrendering 1.08 xGA which are very nice numbers. Fulham comes off a rough 3-0 loss to Burnley over the weekend in FA Cup action. Manager Scott Parker has abandoned his more aggressive attack for a counter-attacking approach which has helped plug many of the leaks in their defense. But this approach has made the Cottagers’ attack toothless. They have scored only once in their last three matches and just three times in their last eight matches. Now after playing their last three EPL matches at home, they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 1.80 xG. In their last three road league contests, they have allowed 2.54 xG per contest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture on December 16th. Fulham is five points behind Brighton in 18th place — so getting a victory here would be monumental. But the Seagulls are the better side with the underlying numbers making a dramatic statement. Let’s trust that manager Graham Potter coaxes a victory from his team. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Brighton and Hove Albion (200134) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200133). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-27-21 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Chelsea -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-121 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Chelsea (W8-D5-L6) has suffered five losses in their last eight EPL matches with their 2-0 loss at Leicester City last Tuesday. Wolverhampton (W6-D4-L9) is winless in their last six EPL matches after their 3-2 loss at home to West Brom.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The dreary loss to the Foxes was the final straw for Chelsea management as they sacked manager, Frank Lampard. I expect an immediate bounce. Lampard was the golden boy in the organization as a player without big-time managerial experience. He seemed like a good fit when hired last year because he could help develop the younger players on the roster — an important consideration given the transfer ban last year. But once that transfer ban was lifted, the franchise brought-in a bunch of high-priced players that changed the expectations with this team. Lampard was finicky with his starting lineups and tactics on the pitch — and his perhaps stoic demeanor came across as arrogant. Players grew tired of his shtick — and he eventually lost the proverbial locker room. In comes new manager Thomas Tuchel who has immediate cache as the former manager of PSG and Borussia Dortmund. The German manager should be able to instantly connect with the struggling Timo Werner and Kai Havertz who have struggled in their transition to the EPL (and with who Lampard had no connection). Tuchel is more of a player’s manager with reports that he has already reached out to every member of the team. He is also expected to deploy a 3-5-2 formation with Werner in the box rather than playing the wing — I love it because Werner is ultimately a poacher. The “Tuchel Bounce” is legit — his teams at Borussia Dortmund won their first 11 matches after his appointment while his PSG team won their first 14 matches once he took over. Talent is not the issue with this team — while they are in 8th place, their expected Points using the expected goals metric places them third in the EPL. The Blues have the second-best expected goals allowed mark in the league. I expect an immediate improvement with stick-in-the-mud Lampard gone. Wolverhampton is struggling with four losses in their last six matches. This group misses striker Raul Jimenez who is out with a head injury for months. The organization signed Willian Jose on loan from Real Sociedad to offer them a substitute attacker — but he has still not received his work permit. The team is also without their talented young attacking midfielder in Daniel Podence who is out with an injury. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has seemed to abandon his tight defensive formation for a more open styled to help create offense without Jimenez — but this has ruined the defensive cohesion of his team. The loss to West Brom is humiliating (as we saw yesterday in the Baggies’ 5-0 loss to Man City, Wolverhampton scoring twice should have been the canary in the coal mine to avoid that Under). The Wolves surrendered an xGA of 2.58 against toothless West Brom. Brighton registered 2.56 xG against Wolverhampton on January 2nd three EPL matches ago.
FINAL TAKE: It should be easy for Tuchel to get his team motivated to play this Wolves team that just upset Chelsea on December 12th by a 2-1 score. The Blues dominated the match in terms of expected goals — they registered 1.61 xG with Wolverhampton countering with just 0.63 xG — but the Wolves on the match in the 96th minute in a goal Neto. Revenge, Redemption — and the opportunity to Scapegoat past struggles on the departed manager — the Trinity of Motivation! 25* English Premier League Wednesday Match of the Month with Chelsea (200126) minus the goal-line versus Wolverhampton (200125). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-26-21 |
Manchester City v. West Bromwich Albion UNDER 3 |
Top |
5-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W11-D5-L2) returns to English Premier League action after defeating Aston Villa last Wednesday by a 2-0 score. West Brom (W2-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 2-1 loss at West Ham last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City has developed into a defensive juggernaut this season. They have ten clean sheets this season in the EPL including three straight. Manager Pep Guardiola has reeled-in his pressing system this season which has put less pressure on his backline. The Cityzens surrendered too many Big Chances (representing an expected goal percentage of 35% or better) last season — so perhaps a tweak in tactics was needed. Not having the services of his best striker, Sergio Aguero, might have played a role as well. Aguero has returned from the leg injury that had him on the shelf — but his positive COVID test keeps him unavailable for this match. Guardiola may have also foreseen the need to not press as much given the condensed schedule given the late start to the season after needing the summer to complete the 2019-20 campaign because of the global pandemic. Legs are shot for many of these players — so asking them to engage in ambitious pressing may exacerbate the fitness problem. Man City has also made some nice additions to their defense including signing Ruben Dias. Since his arrival, the Cityzens are allowing just 0.52 expected goals (xGA) in their last ten EPL games while conceding only twice. And while their attacking numbers have improved, Man City has scored only ten goals in their eight road matches in the EPL. They had played six straight road matches where they did not score more than one goal before their 3-1 win at Chelsea on January 3rd. The Cityzens have played their last three EPL matches at home. They last played on Saturday in the FA Cup when they rallied from a 1-0 hole to overwhelm Cheltenham Town, 3-1. Unfortunately for Guardiola, he had to rely on his key players late in the match rather than resting them for this league contest. West Brom is a mess on both ends of the pitch — but they are likely to continue the defensive tactics they employed in the reverse fixture between these two sides on December 15th which ended in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad. The Baggies host this rematch at the Hawthornes where they have scored just five times in their nine matches. West Brom has been blanked in three straight home matches in league play as well as five of their last seven. They are last in the EPL in expected goals from their attack. They will likely get blanked again by this stout Man City defense. The issue is how many goals will the Cityzens bag?
FINAL TAKE: Man City will be without their glue in the middle of the field in Kevin DeBruyne who is out for four weeks with a hamstring injury. DeBruyne may be the best player in the world 40 yards away from the goal — he is the glue that holds this Man City attack in place. The Cityzens have Gabriel Jesus back — but the attacker is more of a poacher who thrives in reacting to the actions of players like DeBruyne. Raheem Sterling will lead the attack but his form has not been top-notch. I suspect 2-0 is more likely of a result than 4-0 (and beyond) — and we can live with a push if the result is 3-0 (or 2-1). 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Manchester City (200117) and West Brom Albion (20018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-23-21 |
Newcastle United v. Aston Villa -1 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W8-D2-L6) has lost three matches in a row after their 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L9) has also lost three in a row after their 3-0 loss at Arsenal on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans have endured a difficult schedule as of late with matches against Liverpool and Manchester United along with their most recent match against Man City. They also had to play Man City on the road after not having played since New Year’s Day given COVID cancellations so rust was an issue. Yet they stayed competitive with the Cityzens with that match scoreless until the 79th minute. Aston Villa had been on a five-match unbeaten streak with three victories before this recent stretch. The Villans are a dynamic attacking team that averages 15.6 shots-per-match along with 1.81 non-penalty kick Big Chances per match and 1.81 non-penalty kick expected goals (xG) per contest. Aston Villa is fifth in the EPL in xG. They are also underperforming at home in Villa Park this season. While they have 10 points from their W3-D1-L3 mark at home, their expected points (xPTS) using expected goals rise to 13.67. Newcastle is a mess that is winless in their last nine matches. Manager Steve Bruce moved away from his uber-conservative 5-4-1 system to a 4-4-2 against Arsenal on Monday to generate more offense — but they only managed four shots and 0.19 xG against the Gunners. The Magpies have been blanked in six of their last seven matches across all competitions (and four of their last five in the EPL). And while the five defensive backs are supposed to stymie opposing attacks, Newcastle still has the fifth worse expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league — and the 1.90 xGA they surrender on the road is the third-highest mark in the EPL. Yet playing with one less defender last week against the middling Arsenal attack, the Magpies have an xGA of 2.41 while allowing 20 shots and those three goals. Aston Villa has thrived in generating pressure in deep-lying opponents like Newcastle. In home matches against similar defensive schemes against Sheffield United, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, the Villans generated 17, 29, and 22 shots. And in home matches against quality opponents Southampton and Liverpool, Aston Villa had 18 and 19 shots — and they scored seven goals against the reigning EPL champs in Liverpool. The Magpies allow 15.3 shots-per-match which is the second-most in the EPL. They have allowed 23 shots against Tottenham, 21 shots against Man United, 28 shots against Leeds United, and 20 shots on Monday against Arsenal.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this match. The Villans have won four of their last six EPL matches and six of their last eight matches across all competitions by at least three goals — so if they win this match, it will likely be by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
Burnley v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W4-D4-L9) has lost two straight games after their 1-0 loss at West Ham on Saturday. Liverpool (W9-D7-L2) is winless in their last four matches in the English Premier League after their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liverpool offensive attack has stalled. They have not scored in their last three league matches — and they have scored just once in their last four EPL matches. They have a mere 6.36 expected goals (xG) in their last four matches. What is going on? Two things. First, manager Jurgen Klopp has his team playing less aggressively in the press since the injury to center back Virgil Van Dijk. The Reds have a strong expected goals allowed mark of 1.10 since Van Dijk’s injury. Liverpool has allowed only three goals in their last six matches with three clean sheets — so Klopp’s adjustment has been effective in tightening things up for them after experiencing some vulnerabilities in the back. But it has taken a toll on the potency of their attack. Second, the Reds’ attackers are not in form. Mo Salah is in a slump. He is averaging only 0.36 non-penalty kick expected goals per match this season — and he has not registered even one shot inside the six-yard box. It has been a very busy schedule for these players with the late start of the season — fatigue is an issue. And don’t discount the possibility that Salah’s positive COVID test did not take a toll on his health and stamina. COVID clearly had a negative impact on the Cleveland Brown’s Myles Garrett who saw his elite play decline when he turned to action. Sadio Mane has not been in his top form either while Roberto Firmino has been in decline for over a calendar year. In their last four matches, they are averaging 1.34 xG per match which is well below the 2.07 xG they averaged in their first 14 games. The slide has been taking place before the festive schedule as well. In their last nine EPL matches, the Reds are averaging 1.56 xG per 95 minutes which is a sharp decline from the 2.53 xG they had before that. Burnley has played four straight matches with 1-0 final results. The Clarets have seen no more than two combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Burnley plays a compact defensive system that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate. They have allowed only five goals in their last eight matches across all competitions including limiting the powerful Man United attack to just 1.41 xG. In their last seven league matches since their embarrassing 5-0 loss at Man City, the Clarets have not allowed more than one goal in a match while registering three clean sheets. But this focus on defense makes the Burnley attack toothless. The Clarets have scored only nine times this season which is the fewest in the EPL — and their 13.88 xG is second-to-last. They have been blanked in their last two matches after registering a mere 0.44 xG against West Ham on Saturday.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool does get center back Joel Matip back for this match — and that will allow Klopp to move Jordan Henderson back to the middle field position where he is one of the best holding midfielders in the world. This development makes the Reds defensive cohesion even better. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw when they played at Anfield last year when the Liverpool attack was in better form. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-21 |
Manchester United -1 v. Fulham |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W11-D4-L3) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on Sunday. Fulham (W2-D6-L9) suffered their first loss in six English Premier League matches on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cottagers have been settling from several draws as of late — they are now winless in their last seven EPL matches. This team is playing more cautiously as of late with an increased emphasis on defense under manager Scott Parker. However, this has taken away any bite they had in their attack. Fulham has mustered only 1.18 expected goals (xG) since their 2-0 loss to Manchester City on December 5th — and they have scored only three goals in those last seven EPL contests. The Cottagers are second-to-last in non-penalty kick xG. Fulham has been pretty stingy at home as of late where they have allowed only two goals hosting Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton, and Chelsea. But that defensive focus has come at a cost as the Cottagers have blanked in three straight home contests. Man United has rediscovered their defensive cohesion they enjoyed in the second half of last season when they went on a great defensive run. The Red Devils have registered three straight clean sheets across all competitions — and they have four clean sheets in their last six contests in all competitions. This team has been in their best form when away from Old Trafford. They have won seven of their nine league matches in league play with two draws against top-flight sides Liverpool and Leicester City being the two exceptions. They are also scoring goals in bunches with them registering at least three goals in six of their nine league matches away from home. I would certainly consider these results as due for some regression — but they have now been doing this for a full calendar year away from home. In their last 16 EPL road matches, Man United is averaging 1.77 xG while holding their home hosts to 1.23 expected goals allowed (xGA).
FINAL TAKE: Paul Pogba seems in better spirits with his team as of late — and when he is contributing, the Red Devils starting XI becomes quite powerful. Man United tends to overwhelm inferior opponents — they have scored 25 goals in their last eight league matches against promoted sides. Their vulnerability is against counter-attacking sides — but the Cottagers are not very aggressive in taking those chances (and they do not feature great attacking talent). The Red Devils have won their last four matches at Fulham with 12 goals scored and just one conceded. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-19-21 |
Chelsea v. Leicester |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
110 |
2 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.
FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-18-21 |
Newcastle United v. Arsenal -1 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) looks to rebound from a listless 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace last Thursday. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners have been playing better as of late with three straight wins before their draw with the Eagles. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with four victories and four clean sheets — and they have a low expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.24 in those five matches. This recent stretch all started at home last month with a huge 3-1 victory over Chelsea in English Premier League action. Manager Mikel Arteta was starting to hear whispers of him being on the hot seat — and he responded by turning to some youngsters to instill some energy and enthusiasm into the starting XI. Kieran Tierney, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Bukayo Saka have all offered breaths of fresh air — although Tierney did not play last week with a calf injury. Frankly, Arsenal was flat and very disappointing in their energy and effort on Thursday. That performance certainly got Arteta’s attention — it needs to be addressed in this contest. The good news is that Tierney’s calf has improved and he should be on the pitch for this game. The last time the Gunners did not win a match was on December 19th when they lost to Everton by a 2-1 score — and it was after that match that Arteta coaxed his best effort of the season from his team in that upset win against Chelsea. This remains a team that has scored eight goals in their last three EPL matches. Newcastle is winless in their last eight matches in all competitions with six losses. In their loss to Sheffield United, they allowed one of the worst attacks in the league to generate 2.13 expected goals (xG). Manager Steve Bruce is firmly on the hot seat — and he may have lost the support of his players. He continues to play five defenders in an uninspired system that is not even generating better defensive play. The Magpies are allowing 1.62 xGA this season which is the sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed more than one goal in three of their last six matches. It is even worse on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to achieve 1.93 xG — and they have surrendered eight goals in their last three road matches in the EPL. They have also allowed multiple goals in three of their last five road contests. Yet playing five defenders has resulted in the Magpies attack being almost non-existent. Over their last five matches, Newcastle is producing only 0.66 non-penalty kick expected goals — and they have not scored a goal from open play in that span. The Magpies have also been shutout in five of their last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played nine days ago on January 9th in the FA Cup with Arsenal winning by a 2-0 score. The Gunners needed extra time to score those two goals — so they did not walk away from that match brimming with confidence. I am very high on Arteta as a tactician — I expect him to make some adjustments to create earlier scoring chances. If (and when) Arsenal scores earlier in this match, Bruce will have to have his team open up more — and those conditions should lead to the Gunners winning comfortably. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
Crystal Palace v. Arsenal -0.75 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-122 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Arsenal (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D2-L8) has won three straight matches in English Premier League action with their 4-0 win at West Brom on January 2nd. Crystal Palace (W6-D4-L7) snapped a five-game winless streak in the EPL on January 2nd with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Gunners’ manager Mikel Arteta found himself firmly on the hot seat last month with this Big Six EPL power underachieving relative to the sky-high expectations for this franchise. Yet everything turned around starting with a surprise 3-1 upset victory at home in the Emirates against Chelsea on Boxing Day on December 26th. Arsenal dominated the pitch against a good Blues team. The Gunners followed that up with a solid victory against Brighton and Hove Albion before their four-goal victory against West Brom. Arsenal last played on Saturday when they advanced in the FA Cup with a quality 2-0 victory against Newcastle United — that victory gave them four-straight wins across all competitions.
|
01-04-21 |
Liverpool v. Southampton UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D6-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United last Wednesday. Southampton (W7-D5-L4) is winless in their last four matches after their 0-0 draw with West Ham United last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: If this was football and I saw two teams coming off scoreless games (or uber-low scoring), I would be skeptical of taking the Under. But soccer is different — the total has fallen given market pressures in response to the recent scores. In fact, there are a lot more 3.25s out there than there were at my bedtime last night when there were 3s and 2.75s. These are two sides struggling with their form in the attack while simultaneously very deliberating playing a more cautious approach. Southampton played a nil-nil draw with Fulham in their previous match where they only generated 0.33 expected goals (xG). They did get their best striker, Danny Ings, back last week. Yet this remains a team that is averaging only 1.10 xG per match this season which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The Saints were always due to see some regression from the strong scoring numbers over the summer in Project Restart. They have now not scored in three straight matches. But they are playing better defensively with two straight clean sheets. They have an expected goals allowed per game mark of 1.25 xGA. They have held their last five opponents to 1.0 or lower xG. The high press of manager Ralph Hassenhuttl is being deployed more judiciously this season. Keep Alex McCarthy is out because of COVID but his backup is Ben Forster who is a quality keeper with years of starting experience in the EPL (that knowledge is the small reward of years of playing EPL fantasy …). Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara returned for that match against Newcastle — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds had allowed 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league — and that was before holding the Magpies to just 0.79 xG. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their eleven league matches — and they have four clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those eleven league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous three matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their eight EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today against a quality side that will burn them in the counterattack.
FINAL TAKE: Klopp’s tactics usually work against Southampton. They have held the Saints to only two goals in their last eight matches with six clean sheets. Maybe Southampton scores — but I don’t see this Liverpool offense bagging more than two goals on the road. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-20 |
Liverpool v. Newcastle United UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D5-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw against West Brom on Sunday. Newcastle (W5-D3-L6) is winless in their last three matches after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara might be fit enough to return — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Even if Thiago cannot take the pitch, this game should still be a lower-scoring match. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds are allowing 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their ten league matches — and they have three clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those ten league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their seven EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today. Newcastle is third-to-last in the EPL with 1.14 expected goals (xG) per match. The Magpies will be without two of their more talented offensive players in this match with Allan Saint-Maximin and Jamaal Lascelles injured — but manager Steve Bruce should insert Callum Wilson back into the starting XI after he did not play against Man City. Newcastle does not engage in an ambitious approach on the pitch. They have scored only seven goals in their nine home matches in the EPL this season. But their defense has been solid — they are 10th in the league by allowing 1.42 expected goals allowed (xGA) per contest.
FINAL TAKE: These are also two teams that are being worked hard right now. This is Liverpool’s third match in ten days while Newcastle is playing their fourth match in ten days. The wear and tear tires out the legs with the players having just a little less energy on the pitch. This should be a lower-scoring match with a Liverpool clean sheet very possible. 25* EPL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-29-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +1 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W6-D3-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw against Tottenham on Sunday. Man United (W8-D3-L3) settled for a 1-1 draw at Leicester City on Saturday in their most recent match.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in the English Premier League since a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on November 1st. That loss to the Gunners continued to expose a weakness of this Red Devils team under Gunnar Solskjaer: they tend to struggle against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. Remember, Man United did not advance out of the Group Stage of the Champions League last month because of a terrible 2-1 loss to Istanbul Basekeshir. Since that result, the Red Devils have settled for a nil-nil draw with Newcastle United while barely defeating a Sheffield United team by a 3-2 score that looks destined for relegation. The Man United defense has taken a step back from last season — they rank just 9th in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) with that mark lowering to 11th in the league in xGA when playing at home at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have also been pretty fortunate with their 30 goals this season since their expected goals (xG) projects only 24.34 goals for them. Man United is 4th in the table with 27 points — but their 22.38 expected Points (xPTS) would place them seventh. Wolverhampton has some nice recent results with that draw with the Spurs and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea on December 15th. The Wolves miss Raul Jimenez as their striker — but this remains an organized team under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Wolverhampton is not quite as stout defensively as they were last season when opponents managed only 0.92 xG in non-penalty kick scoring opportunities. That number has risen to 1.10 nonPK xGA this year — but that is still a stingy number.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves thrive in the type of tactics that stymie Manchester United. This Red Devils team also has chemistry issues with Paul Pogba wanting to be released and Solskjaer continuing to sit on the hot seat given his team’s inconsistent play. A draw is very possible — and a Wolves upset is more likely than Man United winning by more than one goal. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-20 |
West Ham United v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D3-L4) has lost only once in their last six matches after their 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace last Wednesday. Chelsea (W6-D4-L3) has lost two straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-1 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has been very reliable on the attack this season even with their top striker, Michail Antonio, being out since November. The Hammers have scored at least one goal in fifteen of their last sixteen matches across all competitions. West Ham has generated at least 2.0 expected goals in two of their last three matches including a sharp 2.67 xG mark against Manchester United. This team is playing well with four wins and a draw in their last six EPL matches. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their six road matches in league play. All six of these contests have seen at least three combined goals. Chelsea is desperate for a win after losing their last two matches to fall to eighth place in the EPL table. The Blues had been unbeaten in their previous fourteen matches across all competitions. This team could put up a big number against this West Ham team that has allowed 16 goals in their thirteen matches. Chelsea is tied for third in the league with 26 goals — and their expected goals mark of 23.63 is third-best in the EPL. The Blues have scored at least one goal in nine of their last eleven games across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea scored three and four goals in their first two matches of the month against Leeds United and then Sevilla in the Champions League before their recent slump where they have scored only two goals in their last three matches. The Blues have scored two more goals in seven of their thirteen league matches. They have scored 14 goals in their six home matches at Stamford Bridge. Look for them to break out of their slump in a must-win match. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool UNDER 3 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W7-D4-L1) remained unbeaten in their last eleven English Premier League matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Liverpool (W7-D4-L1) comes off a disappointing 1-1 draw at Fulham on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs had registered four straight clean sheets before allowing that goal to the Eagles. Tottenham leads the EPL by allowing only 10 goals this season. Manager Jose Mourinho often keeps six players back on defense in a cautious approach that finds success because of the clinical scoring prowess of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. But the Spurs are scoring at a rate that is unsustainable relative to the pressure they are creating. They have only 18.80 expected goals (xG) versus their 24 actual goals. On the road, they have scored 14 times despite their xG of 9.88. Six of those goals came in their 6-1 barrage victory at Old Trafford against a Man United side that gave up in the second half. In their other three wins away from home, Tottenham has scored four times despite a minuscule 1.18 combined xG in those three matches. In their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, they managed only 1.21 xG. Liverpool is dealing with a number of injuries. Defensemen Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Thiago Alacantara are all injured along with defensive midfielder Joe Milner. These absences have compelled manager Jurgen Klopp to change tactics with him abandoning the high line press that was the Reds’ signature over the last two seasons which brought home a Champions League and English Premier League title. Liverpool has played more conventional while taking fewer chances of going on the attack. In their last four matches across all competitions, the Reds have conceded only two goals. Yet the Reds have not scored more than one goal in five of their last six contests. Forward Sadio Mane is out-of-form which has hurt the offensive attack. And while Trent Alexander-Arnold returned from his injury last week, he is not at 100% with his offensive skill limited. Liverpool hosts this match at Anfield where they have won all six of their EPL matches this season while conceding just six times — and their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) is even better at 5.46 in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 11th in EPL action with Liverpool eking out a 1-0 victory at Tottenham Stadium in a match after Mourinho had taken over the team. Expect another cautious, low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-20 |
Shakhtar Donetsk v. Inter Milan OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). THE SITUATION: Shakhtar Donetsk (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off their 2-0 upset win over Real Madrid in the Champions League last Tuesday. Inter Milan (W1-D2-L2) comes off a 3-2 win against Borussia Monchengladbach last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Group B remains very much in flux this afternoon with all four teams in the group still alive to take the two slots in the knockout stage Round of 16. Inter Milan begins the day in last place with 5 points. They must win this match then hope that the simultaneous Borussia Monchengladbach-Real Madrid showdown does not end in a draw. A loss would be disastrous for manager Antonio Conte since they would not even finish in third place which would qualify them for this season’s Europa League. The Nerazzurri won the Europa League last year which gave them higher aspirations for this year. They come off a 3-1 victory over Bologna in Serie A action on Saturday. Romelu Lukaku scored his 12th goal in all competitions in that match. This is a high-scoring team under Conte which does not have the defensive template that Conte deployed to win the English Premier League title with Chelsea nor his previous teams with Juventus. Inter Milan have scored at least three goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. But this club has only one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Conte’s team is getting healthy — and they get Arturo Vidal back after he was suspended for that last match with Borussia Monchengladbach after he was issued a red card in the previous Champions League match with Real Madrid. Shakhtar Donetsk comes off a 5-1 win over Minai on Saturday. They have scored 30 goals in their 12 matches in the Ukrainian top-flight league. They begin the day in second place in Group B with 7 points and owning the tie-breaker against Real Madrid who also has 7 points but lost to Shakhtar Donetsk twice. A loss would ruin their Round of 16 hopes while a draw keeps them alive only if Real Madrid does not win their match. Defense is an issue for manager Luis Castillo’s team as they have surrendered 12 goals in their five group stage matches.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the reverse fixture on October 27th. The rematch will not be scoreless — and the urgency with this contest will likely ensure plenty of goals. 25* Champions League Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-20 |
Manchester United v. RB Leipzig |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357) in Group H play in the Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W3-D0-L2) is unbeaten in three straight matches across all competitions after their 4-3 win at Istanbul Basaksehir last Wednesday in the Champions League. Manchester United (W3-D0-L2) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Both these teams are tied with PSG in first-place in Group H. PSG is a -2.75 goal-line favorite against Istanbul Basahsehir so they are likely to be one of the two teams to advance to the knockout stage Round of 16. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 5-0 score on October 28th — so RB Leipzig needs the three points in this match that come from a victory. The Red Bulls do come off an impressive 3-3 draw on the road at Bayern Munich. RB Leipzig probably outplayed the reigning Champions League title-holders with 1.24 expected goals (xG) while holding the Bavarians to just 1.04 xG. RB Leipzig made the semifinals of the Champions League last August — this is a very good team. Across all competitions in the Bundesliga and Champions League this season, RB Leipzig has generated 1.81 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.06 xGA. Man United rebounded from their loss to PSG by defeating West Ham (playing without their best striker Mikhail Antonio) by a 3-1 score on Saturday. The Red Devils have looked vulnerable on defense as of late — their last two opponents have generated 5.83 xG. In their five Champions League matches, Man United is allowing 1.50 xG. With Fred getting issued a red card in that match with PSG, he will be suspended for this match. That means that manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will have to play Paul Pogba in the midfield despite his agent calling for him to be traded last week. I don’t like the chemistry of this Red Devils team right now. Pogba seems to be a tinder box — and the team has been inconsistent for the last year under Solskjaer and his questionable tactics. All Man United needs is a draw so they may play this match cautiously. On other hand, a loss might trigger Solskjaer’s firing since that would leave the Red Devils eliminated from the Champions League.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t read too much into the 5-0 score in the first meeting between these two teams. That was a close match at Old Trafford for the first 75 minutes before RB Leipzig got caught by Man United’s counter-attack late in the game as they needed to score to catch-up — and then the floodgates opened up. RB Leipzig gets to avenge that match at home in their Red Bull Arena. An outright win is very possible — with a push from a draw also possible (keeping the bet worth the risk). 25* Champions League Group Match H Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-20 |
Inter Milan v. Borussia Monchengladbach +0.5 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-150 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W2-D2-L0) returns to Champions League action after their 4-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk last Wednesday. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 2-0 loss to Real Madrid in Champions League play last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan is desperate for the three points that a victory would accrue in this match. In last place in the “Group of Death” in the Champions League with just two points, they have a long haul to overcome both Real Madrid and Borussia Monchengladbach with their 7 and 8 points respectively. Nerazzurri would need to win their last two matches and then hope Real Madrid defeats Monchengladbach in their final Group Stage match. That is not an impossible path. But manager Antonio Conte’s team faced urgency last week against Real Madrid — and they laid an egg with that lifeless 2-0 loss against a Los Blancos side missing two of their best players in Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema. Nerazzurri comes off a 3-0 win over Sassuolo on Saturday in Serie A play — but they still have been a bit of a disappointment in the Italian top-flight where they are 5 points behind AC Milan for first place. This team is not playing with the typical high-level of defense that Conte’s teams displayed in his championship runs with Chelsea and Juventus. Inter Milan has allowed 13 goals in nine Serie A matches and they have surrendered seven goals in their four Champions League contests. They will also be without Arturo Vidal in this match who was issued a red card in the 37th minute of that match last week with Real Madrid. Borussia Monchengladbach would love to settle for a draw in this match since that would likely clinch their qualification for the Round of 16 (if Shaktar Donetsk loses to Real Madrid as a +1.25 goal-line underdog today). Die Fohlen are an offensive juggernaut that has scored 18 goals in their last five matches across all competitions. They come off a 4-1 victory over Schalke 04 on Saturday in the Bundesliga — they have scored eight goals in their last two matches with seven different players finding the back of the net. Manager Marco Rose has his team comfortable playing both an aggressive ball-dominant attack as well as a counter-attacking style (which they will probably employ this afternoon against an aggressive Inter Milan).
FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach had a 2-1 late lead at Inter Milan in their reverse fixture in Group Stage play on October 21st. With Inter Milan being without Vidal and out of form, don’t be surprised if Die Fohlen pulls the outright upset — but take the +0.5 goal-line for some insurance. 25* Champions League Group B Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-20 |
Real Madrid v. Inter Milan OVER 3 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W1-D1-L1) defeated Inter Milan in the reverse fixture in Group B play of the Champions League on November 3rd with their 3-2 victory. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L1) hosts this rematch.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a crucial match for Inter Milan as they are currently in last place in their group with two points. Manager Antonio Conte’s side comes off a 4-2 victory at home against Torino in Serie A play on Sunday where they rallied from a 2-0 deficit with four straight goals. Led by Romelu Lukaku as their striker, the Nerazzurri are an offensive juggernaut who are tied for first place in the Italian top-flight league with 20 goals. But this team does not play the typical high-level defense that Conte’s teams enjoyed in championship runs at Juventus and then Chelsea. Inter Milan has surrendered 13 goals in their eight Serie A matches. In their last four matches, Nerazzuri has scored nine goals while allowing eight goals. They have seen nine combined goals scored in their three Champions League games. In their 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach, they generated a robust 3.51 expected goals. Real Madrid comes off a 1-1 draw at Villarreal on Saturday. Los Blancos have lost a step or two on defense as they have not registered a clean sheet in all competitions in their last eight matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is dealing with some critical injuries with Karim Benzema, Sergio Ramos, and Luka Jokic all out for this match. But this is Galactico — and while this Real Madrid team is not their best in the last decade, this remains a loaded roster of scoring talent. Additionally, don’t underestimate the negative impact of losing Ramos on their backline on the Los Blancos defense. Real Madrid has scored 16 goals in their last seven matches so they are certainly capable of scoring multiple goals even with their injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid has seen at least four combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. Los Blancos need this game as well — the urgency of the situation should push this to be a higher-scoring game. 25* Champions League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-20 |
Basaksehir v. Manchester United UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-140 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). THE SITUATION: Istanbul Basakshir (W1-D0-L2) returns to Champions League action after upsetting Manchester United at home on November 4th by a 2-1 score. Man United (W2-D0-L1) hosts this reverse fixture rematch in Group H play at home at Old Trafford.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man United have developed a consistent modus operandi under manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. What do their 5-0 win over RB Leipzig and their 2-1 victory over PSG in the Champions League play have in common this season? Those triumphs were against sides that play aggressive pressing attacks which allows the Red Devils to play cautiously on defense before relying on their attacking talent to shine in the counter-attack. Yet what does Man United’s 6-1 loss to Tottenham, 1-0 loss to Arsenal, and their most recent UCL match against Istanbul Basakshir have in common? Those opponents are counter-attacking sides — and the Red Devils felt compelled to be the more aggressive team on the pitch which failed. Even in their most recent match on Saturday against lowly West Brom, they only won by a 1-0 score despite the Baggies having conceded the most goals in the English Premier League and being at the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed (xGA). Solskjaer’s job is in jeopardy because he cannot find the right lineup that is successful against even mediocre defensive counter-attacking opponents. Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are struggling in the attack this season. Look for Solskjaer to insert more reliable defensive players in the midfield in this rematch with the hopes of securing a one or two-goal clean sheet victory. The Red Devils are playing consistently well on the defensive end of the pitch. Since the international break that started on October 20th, Man United is holding their opponents in all competitions to just 0.80 xGA which includes strong sides like PSG and RB Leipzig as well as Chelsea. They host this rematch at Old Trafford where they have held their last three opponents to just 0.40 non-penalty shot expected goals (XG). Istanbul Basakshir comes off a 32- loss to Besiktas in their last match on Saturday. The Owls play more aggressively when competing in their domestic Turkish league. Their two goals against Man United last month were their only goals in their three Champions League matches where they play more conservatively. They will likely park the bus once again in this match so they can take their chances on counter-attacks. They managed only 0.84 xG in their upset win over the Red Devils — and they had only a 0.77 xGA against them which suggests their ultra-conservative defensive approach was successful.
FINAL TAKE: I think Man United should get the clean sheet in this rematch — but I am not confident that they score the two goals necessary to cover the -1.75 goal-line spread. The better play is the Under given the Red Devils’ struggles with counter-attacking sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Group Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-20 |
Liverpool +0.5 v. Manchester City |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200033) plus the goal-line versus Manchester City (200034). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D1-L1) has won five straight games across all competitions with their 2-1 win over West Ham last Saturday in their most recent English Premier League match. Manchester City (W3-D2-L1) is unbeaten across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday in their most recent EPL match.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is dealing with injuries in their back-line with Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho both out — but the Reds have won five straight games across all competitions since losing Van Dijk to his season-ending leg injury. The reigning EPL champs flexed their muscles o Tuesday in their last match in a dominant 5-0 victory at Atalanta in the Champions League. Atalanta is no slouch — they reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League last year. Liverpool has added another offensive juggernaut in Diogo Jota from Wolverhampton in the transfer window — he scored a hat trick against Atalanta after scoring a goal coming on a sub against West Ham. The Reds entered this matchweek leading the EPL in expected points (xPTS) — and they have won the expected goals (xG) in six of their seven matches. Liverpool also leads the EPL by averaging 2.46 xG per match — and they have scored at least two goals in nine straight league matches. The defense has been shaky with their injuries as they have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches. But they have been a bit unlucky in allowing those goals as well as their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to just 8.47 goals on the season. Man City might be favored in this match based on them having much better xG numbers in the 2019-20 season despite Liverpool winning the title. However, the Cityzens are just 11th in the league this season in xPTS . Man City misses Sergio Aguero who has been out all year. Having to use Raheem Sterling as a striker disrupts the cohesion of their attack. In their last six matches, the Cityzens are averaging only 1.58 xG which is far below their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG in their previous two seasons. They have managed only seven non-penalty kick Big Chances representing scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate. That 1.2 Big Chance per match rate is far below the 2.4 Big Chances they averaged in league play last year. They did get Gabriel Jesus back as their second striker on Tuesday in their 3-0 victory over Olympiakos in Champions League play but he is not as dynamic as Aguero.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool will have revenge on their minds as well after losing by a 4-0 score at Man City’s Etihad Stadium when these two teams last played on July 2nd. That was the first match the Reds played after clinching the 2019-20 EPL championship — so an emotional letdown was predictable. Jurgen Klopp has managed teams to defeat Pep Guardiola eight times in his career which is the most victories against the Man City manager. Liverpool could win this match — and a draw is also a likely result. Strong value play here. 20* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Liverpool (200033) plus the goal-line versus Manchester City (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-20 |
Newcastle United v. Southampton UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
102 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W3-D2-L2) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Everton last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Southampton (W4-D1-L2) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Aston Villa on the road by a 4-3 score last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle does not have much of a more scoring punch — and manager Steve Bruce’s team often takes a defensive approach. The Magpies have scored only ten goals in their seven matches — and their expected goals (xG) in those contests were only 8.83. Now they go on the road where they are averaging just 0.67 xG per match for their non-penalty kick situations. Newcastle has scored four of their goals via a penalty shot which they can not rely on moving forward. The Magpies have conceded eleven goals this season as well — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) does suggest they have been a bit unfortunate with that number dropping to 10.56 xGA. Southampton has registered a clean sheet in three of their last five matches. The Saints are an underrated defensive club under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl. Southampton has conceded twelve goals this season but their xGA drops to 8.91. They have allowed five goals in their three home matches — but their xGA is just 2.73 in those matches. The Saints will be without their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is out with a knee injury that requires surgery. Ings has scored five goals this season after his breakout campaign over the summer in Project Restart. They still have Che Adams upfront — but he is not a good finisher with most of his goals being from poaching from Ings’ creativity. Southampton may have to rely on James Ward-Prowse out of the midfield.
FINAL TAKE: Look for Hasenhuttl to have his team play this match close to the vest with Ings not available. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-20 |
Leicester v. Leeds United UNDER 3 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W4-D0-L2) has won three straight matches across all competition that includes their 1-0 win at Arsenal last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Leeds United (W3-D1-L2) comes off a 3-0 win at Aston Villa in their last match two Fridays ago on October 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City defeated AEK Athens on Thursday by a 2-1 score in Europa League action. They also held Arsenal to just 0.96 expected goals in that blank sheet victory. After a dominant 5-2 win at Manchester City on September 27th, the Foxes have played five straight matches across all competitions that have not seen more than three combined goals scored. This team under Brendan Rodgers has become a bit more defensively-oriented. They have allowed only one goal in their last three matches in all competitions. In the EPL, they have allowed only 8 goals but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 6.97 — and that 1.20 xGA per match mark is second-best in the league. They have allowed only four non-penalty shot Big Chances this season of scoring opportunities for their opponent with at least a 35% statistical chance of scoring. But the offense has lagged. While the Foxes have scored 13 goals, their expected goals mark (xG) drops to 8.67 which suggests they have been fortunate to see those many goals scored. Leicester City has just a 0.90 xG mark per game in non-penalty kick situations. Leeds United are tied with Leicester City by allowing just four non-penalty kick Big Chances which is the third-best mark in the EPL. They have allowed 12 goals with a 1.68 xGA mark but they have played a difficult schedule which includes Man City and Liverpool. The Whites have not seen more than three combined goals in four straight matches. Their striker, Patrick Bamford, has scored six times already — but that was based on 3.4 xG which suggests he has been pretty fortunate.
FINAL TAKE: After playing two high-scoring matches against Liverpool and Fulham, manager Marcelo Bielsa, has his team playing a bit less aggressive when it comes to when his midfielders rush to join the forwards in their counter-attack. Leeds plays a unique style that has stymied the topflight competition — most of their opponents have decided to play conservatively to counter their tactics. Leicester City will likely embrace this approach and bank on a Jamie Vardy counter-attack which was how they defeated Arsenal with his goal in the 80th minute. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-20 |
Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W3-D1-L2) looks to get back to their winning ways after settling for a 1-1 draw to Newcastle United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (W3-D1-L2) snapped a three-match winless streak with their 2-1 win at Fulham last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Crystal Palace benefited from facing the promoted Fulham side who may be the worst team in the premiership (pending their result on Monday with West Bromwich). The Eagles had the second-worst expected goals (xG) mark (excluding penalty kicks) along with the fewest shots in the box before that match last week. After managing just 0.14 expected goals three matches ago to Chelsea, they had zero shots in the box outside Wilfried Zaha’s penalty shot two matches ago against Brighton in a contest where they generated a Blutarski 0.0 xG mark in non-penalty kick scoring chances. Crystal Palace is playing very cautiously — but the problem is that they are still giving up plenty of scoring chances. The Eagles are third to last in the league by allowing their opponents to generate 1.80 xG. They have surrendered at least one goal in five straight EPL matches. Against a mediocre Fulham side, they allowed the second-most Big Chances (representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 38% success rate) all week. And while the win over Fulham was their second victory on the road this season after a surprising win at Manchester United last month, Palace was second-to-last in expected points (xPTS) in the EPL last season. Wolverhampton is unbeaten in their last three matches — and they were a few moments away from a three-game winning streak in the EPL before they surrendered a goal to Newcastle in the 89th minute last week. That was the only goal the Wolves have allowed in their last three league matches. Wolverhampton led the EPL with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.08. After a slow start this season, the Wolves have stepped up their play on defense. After allowing seven Big Chances along with 29 shots in the box in their first three matches, Wolverhampton has given up only two Big Chances in their last three matches along with just 21 combined shots in the box.
FINAL TAKE: The Wolves struggled to generate scoring opportunities last week against a Newcastle side content to not control possession and simply counter-attack. Wolverhampton perhaps got too content with yet another second-half 1-0 lead after winning their last two EPL matches by 1-0 scores via a second-half goal. The Wolves should find it easier to score against this Palace defense. Let’s remember that Wolverhampton has been a top-seven team in each of the last two seasons in the EPL since its promotion three years ago. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig +0.5 v. Manchester United |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig defeated Istanbul Basakehir last Tuesday in Champions League action. Manchester United upset Paris Saint-Germain last Tuesday by a 2-1 score in their opening match in the Champions League.
REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. After their surprising victory over a PSG team that lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League finals over the summer, they then played to a listless 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea in their English Premier League match on Saturday. The deeper analytics suggest they were fortunate to get the win against PSG as they generated only 1.47 expected goals (xG) but allowed 1.59 expected goals (xGA). In their draw with the Blues, they put up a meager 0.78 xG. The Red Devils have some cohesion issues right now as they incorporate some new players they acquired from the transfer window. The enigmatic Paul Pogba is sulking. Manager Gunnar Solskjaer seems over his head at times. The attacking talent is there for this team — but their backline is another matter. Man United is W2-D1-L2 in the EPL so far this season with a bad 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace and a humiliating 6-1 loss to Tottenham on their resume. They are 17th in the league in net expected points differential. They are allowing their opponents to generate 1.98 xG. Furthermore, in their last three matches at home at Old Trafford, they are producing just 1.03 xG. RB Leipzig is not only one of the best sides in the Bundesliga but they have proven themselves on the international stage by reaching the semifinals of the Champions League over the summer where they lost to PSG. They have one of the best managers in the world in Julian Nagelsmann who has ensured his team did not miss a beat this season after losing Timo Werner to a mega-contract signing with Chelsea. Die Roten Bullen followed up their victory last week in the Champions League with a 2-1 win over Hertha Berlin whee they generated 2.70 xG while holding them to just 0.78 xG. RB Leipzig has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with a 1-1 draw with at a quality Bayer Leverkusen side in the Bundesliga representing their only blemish to that run. The Red Bulls sit atop the German top-flight table. They are averaging 2.18 xG in league play so far this season — but it is perhaps their 0.76 xGA that is more impressive given the high-scoring that takes place in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Man United tends to play its best against teams that are aggressive in the attack. But generating offense from the counter-attack is also RB Leipzig’s bread-and-butter. Those are the teams that give Solskjaer’s team problems. A draw is likely — but don’t be surprised if the Red Bulls pull the upset with the better manager and far better team cohesion right now. 25* UEFA Champions League Underdog of the Month with RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Burnley OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W2-D2-L1) enters this match coming off a 3-3 draw against West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on October 18th. Burnley (W0-D1-L3) comes off a 0-0 draw at West Bromwich on October 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have established chemistry between their talent and the tactics of manager Jose Mourinho who took over midseason last year. Tottenham lead the EPL with 15 goals (even with one less match under their belts than most of the league) — and they are second in the league by averaging 2.48 expected goals per match. Harry Kane is thriving in his #10 role on the pitch as an attacking midfielder. He has scored five times already this season. But in this position, Kane has assisted on seven goals which is very much out of character for him when he was playing the #9 role higher up the pitch. Son Heung-Min is now playing that attacker role (rather than the winger role that Mourinho relegated him to during the summer’s Project Restart). Yet the Spurs remain shaky on defense. They enjoyed a 3-0 lead against the Hammers before conceding three goals in the second half to settle with the draw. They also blew a lead by conceding a late goal versus Newcastle United. Tottenham brought in a bunch of new talent in the transfer window which has impacted their cohesion — and integrating the aging Gareth Bale into the mix does not help matters. The Spurs have allowed eight goals this season — and they are allowing their opponents to register 1.48 expected goals per game. Burnley was an outstanding defensive team during the summer with a tight backline working together combining with a hot goalkeeper in Nick Pope. It has not been the same to the start of this season as the Clarets have surrendered eight goals in four matches. Burnley has allowed Newcastle score three times against them, and Leicester City score four times against them so far this season — and they conceded three goals to Manchester City in League Cup action last month. The Clarets really miss the injured Ben Mee, who anchors that backline at center back. He will not play in this match. Burnley has only scored three times this season — but they will have to play more aggressively if and when they fall behind against the Hotspurs. They were content to settle for a draw against West Brom to finally get some points this season — but this is a different challenge. The Clarets are usually more potent when playing at home at Turf Moor. Last season, Burnley scored 24 of their 42 goals at home — and 31.08 of their 49.35 expected goals (xG) came on their home pitch. The Clarets averaged 1.64 xG at home last year.
FINAL TAKE: Tottenham leads the EPL in creating Big Chances (scoring chances with at least a 38% probability of scoring given historical averages). Look for the Hotspurs to take the lead, which will compel Burnley to abandon their preferred compact approach. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-20 |
Leicester v. Arsenal UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L2) has lost two EPL matches in a row after their 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Arsenal (W3-D0-L2) looks to rebound from their 1-0 loss at Manchester City last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I waited for confirmation of the Leicester City lineup that was released an hour before game time after being burned last week when we took the Foxes without realizing that their top scorer, Jamie Vardy, would miss the game with an injury. Those are always the dangers in the first week back in the English Premier League after the international break. Leicester City hoped to have Vardy in their Starting XI today — but while his active on their roster, he is starting on their bench. So, I expect Vardy to play around 30 minutes today. Without Vardy, the Foxes have struggled to score. Not only have they been shutout in two straight matches but they have managed only 0.57 expected goals (xG) per match in those two games. Even with Vardy, Leicester City was struggling to generate scoring chances so far this season — they are averaging just 0.92 xG in non-penalty shot chances. Three of their twelve goals this season have come via a penalty kick — and the league is not calling as many controversial handball penalties like they were last month. 47% of the Foxes expected goals this season have come from penalty kicks. Manager Brendan Rodgers is dealing with a host of injuries besides Vardy — most notably defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and center back Caglar Soyuncu. Rodgers has his team playing more cautiously to compensate for their absence on the pitch. Leicester City is allowing only 1.26 expected goals (xGA) this season. Arsenal is playing pretty solid defense themselves with an xGA of 1.38 this season even after playing two of the most prolific attacks in the league on the road already in Liverpool and Man City. The Gunners added defensive midfielder Thomas Partey in the transfer window from the defensive juggernaut that is Atletico Madrid. Manager Mikel Arteta has his team playing a defensive-first style with their offense coming from counter-attacks. Arsenal has managed only 39 shots on goal in their five matches for a 7.8 average per game which is third-lowest in the EPL. The Gunners are averaging only 1.28 xG per game.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal’s approach has neutralized the activity and effectiveness of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has managed only six shots all season after scoring 22 goals last season. This shapes up to be a low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-20 |
Real Madrid +0.5 v. Barcelona FC |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/24:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Saturday morning action is with Real Madrid plus the goal-line versus Barcelona. Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to won the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Not having their heart-and-soul on the pitch midweek in Sergio Ramos did not help matters — but it will be near impossible to keep him away from this rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. But Lionel Messi is out-of-form and not in the best of spirits after wanting to leave the franchise in the offseason. The reigning La Liga champs are still playing better than Barca — they have 10.15 expected points in five league matches as compared to the 6.32 expected points Barcelona posts in four league matches. With no fans at Camp Nou, Barca are robbed of most of their home field advantage as well. Take Real Madrid with the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Saturday on a RED HOT 13 of 19 (68%) All-Sports run over the last six days! Frank pushed the Leeds United-Aston Villa Under yesterday to continue his 44 of 70 (63%) Soccer run! Now Frank turns back to La Liga where he last CA$HED his 25* La Liga Match of the Year in July on Sevilla — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* La Liga Total of the Month for El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona at 10 AM ET on beIN Sports! DON’T MISS IT!
|
10-24-20 |
Real Madrid v. Barcelona FC UNDER 3.25 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Barcelona (W2-D1-L1) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss to Getafe last Saturday in their last La Liga contest.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these Spanish giants limp into the first incarnation of El Clasico for the 2020-21 campaign. Real Madrid was stunned to lose to Cadiz at home last week against a newly promoted side to La Liga. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to win the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Real Madrid is struggling to score. They have scored only six goals in their last five league matches. The ever-disappointing Eden Hazard is dealing with a leg injury that has kept him off the pitch. Benzema and Toni Kroos are out of form. This problem on offense goes deeper than this season. Over their last fourteen matches, Los Blancos have eight single-goal wins with a nil-nil draw and a single-goal defeat. They have only had three victories over that span by two goals. But Zidane’s group is still playing outstanding defense. They allowed just 1.04 expected goals in their winning 2019-20 La Liga campaign — and they are close to that level so far this season with their 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They did not have their rock on their defensive backline for the midweek Champions League match in Sergio Ramos who should be fit to play in this crucial rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. The Dutch coach brings a defensive-approach to Camp Nou — the Blaugranas have an outstanding 1.03 xGA in league play so far this season. But Barca is generating only 0.90 xG in their last three matches. Lionel Messi is not in form after wanting to exit the team in the offseason. Messi has not scored in his last five matches against Real Madrid. This team was outmuscled by Getafe last weekend in a match where they struggled to find scoring opportunities — they managed a mere 0.92 xG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the match at Camp Nou last season. Real Madrid won the rematch by a 2-0 score at home later in the season — but that was another low-scoring match. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* La Liga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-20 |
Leeds United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 |
Top |
3-0 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W2-D1-L2) enters this match looking to rebound from their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton on Monday in English Premier League action. Aston Villa (W4-D0-L0) remains the only EPL team with a perfect record with their 1-0 win at Leicester City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Villans were one of the worst defensive teams in the EPL for much of last season — but manager Dean Smith made a tactical change after the March shutdown of action. When Aston Villa returned to play for Project Restart, they played less aggressively with a fourth defender in their backline. Since that time through last week, the Villans are holding their opponents to just 6.2 shots in the box per game along with only 1.2 Big Chances per game. Those are remarkable improvements when compared to the 12.2 shots per box and 3.1 Big Chances per game they allowed last season before the shutdown. Aston Villa has allowed only two goals this season — and the 3.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) from the deeper analytics is the best defensive mark in the league. The Villans have also scored 12 goals this season — but the metrics suggest they are overachieving since their expected goals (xG) mark drops to 6.79 xG. Seven of Aston Villa’s 12 goals came from their 7-2 blowout win over Liverpool which was very impressive — but the Reds also took their foot off the pedal in that embarrassing loss. In their 1-0 victory over Leicester City, they only managed 0.92 xG. The Villans have also benefited from playing a Fulham team that is perhaps the worst defensive team in the league — three of their goals come from that match. Leeds United held Wolverhampton to just 0.48 xG in their 1-0 loss to begin the week. Manager Marcelo Bielsa has his team play an aggressive style where the entire midfield joins the forwards in the times they go on the counter-attack. But after wild 4-3 matches against Liverpool and Fulham which they split, Bielsa has had his team be more cautious when embracing their counter-attack. In the Whites last three matches, only four combined goals have been scored with Leeds scoring twice and conceding twice. Two of these matches ended in a clean sheet including the Whites 1-0 victory over Sheffield United. With defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips out for this match, look for Leeds to be even more judicious for when they decide to bring the house in their counter-attacks.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa remains a defense-first side under Smith. This match should follow the recent trends for both teams to be a lower-scoring game. 25* EPL Friday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-20 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Ajax Amsterdam |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool begins its Champions League campaign coming off a 2-2 draw against Everton in English Premier League action on Saturday. Ajax comes off a 5-1 win over Heerenveen in Eredivisie action in the Dutch top-flight.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ajax is trying to rekindle the magic they had in the 2018-19 season where they made a run to the Semifinals of the Champions League where they lost to Tottenham. However, a bunch of the core talent from that team has now been poached by the bigger budget teams in Europe. Defenseman Matthijs DeLight signed with Juventus while Hakim Ziyech and Donny Van de Beek recently signed with Chelsea and Manchester United. This is a side that took a big step back last season in Champions League play where they failed to qualify for the last 16 knockout stage. They were W3-D1-L2 in group stage play with their 10 points just one shy of the qualifying second-place slot. But what was more troubling in Champions League play was their -6.5 net goal differential in expected goals where they overachieved on both ends of the pitch. Ajax scored 12 goals despite an expected goals (xG) mark of just 7.8. They also only allowed 6 goals despite their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 14.3. This season, Ajax has won four of their five matches in the Eredivisie national league — but that is not considered one of the top-tier professional leagues in Europe. Liverpool comes off a 2-2 draw against what has now become a loaded Everton team. They won the expected goals battle by a 2.85-1.35 xG mark. That effort erased any concerns I had about their surprising 7-2 loss to Aston Villa in EPL play. A number of the elite teams in the EPL have started slowly. I am writing these efforts off to the unique season where the players did not enjoy a traditional offseason given the summer Project Restart. The Reds are still loaded with talent. They did suffer two big injuries against Everton with both Virgil Van Dijk and Thiago Alcantara out for this match. Thiago was a very nice offseason acquisition who was playing in his first match with his new club on Saturday — so his loss is not a big subtraction. The loss of Van Dijk is more significant as he will likely miss the rest of the season with his torn ACL. Not having Van Dijk will not impact the Liverpool attack as much since it has right-back Andre Robertson who has become their primary attacker who advances from the backline to assist Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino. Van Dijk will be replaced by either Fabinho or Naby Keito who is back in training from his injury. The Reds will be fine. They won the Champions League in 2019 against the Spurs team that defeated Ajax in the Semifinals. They won the EPL last season. And they need to get back to their winning ways after a slow start to their EPL campaign.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches versus Ajax who have only one win in their last six matches from teams from England. Ajax hosts this match (without fans) in their Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam — but they have only won once in their last seven opportunities to host an English professional team. Ajax is rebuilding with some nice young talent — but their inexperience against elite sides will do them this afternoon. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 v. Leeds United |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W2-D0-L2) returns to the pitch after the international break looking to build off their 1-0 win over Fulham on October 4th. Leeds United (W2-D1-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have started slow this season with two losses to Man City and West Ham. The early season for this team has been hit-or-miss as they also manage the Europa League campaign with a roster that does not have the same depth as the power franchises in the English Premier League. But this remains the same team that has finished 7th in the EPL in each of the last two seasons since being promoted from the Championship League. They have one of the best managers in Espirito Nuno Santo — and they are acquiring more and more top-end talent to bolster their solid core group of players. There have been some transition issues with the change of roster over the transfer window. The Wolves were the best defensive team in the EPL last season with an expected goal allowed mark of 1.08. Their counter-attacking system matches up quite well with the uber-aggressive counter-attack of this Leeds team from their outstanding manager Marcelo Bielsa. The Whites will send their entire midfield along with their forwards when they initiate their counter-attack. This gives Leeds the best-of-both-worlds approach where they will park the bus for much of the match before becoming hyper-aggressive when they get the opportunity to attack. Their exciting 4-3 loss to Liverpool that opened the season displayed how wild their matches can become. But the Wolves are not the pressing-styled team from which Bielsa’s approach was designed to exploit. Nuno will not deviate from their defensive-shape — and they lead the EPL so far this season in expected goals coming from fast breaks. Leeds is allowing their opponents to post a 2.05 expected goals mark which is third-worst in the league. They are also getting beat by a 0.67 expected goals differential per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Leeds may be without their captain Liam Cooper who is a doubt with a groin injury. Coming off the international break, I expect the Wolves to start playing better. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-20 |
Aston Villa v. Leicester -0.25 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L1) returns to action after their 3-0 loss at home to West Ham back on October 4th in their last EPL match. Aston Villa (W3-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after their 7-2 upset victory over Liverpool on October 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes had been riding high winning their first three matches in the new EPL season after a dominant 5-2 statement win at Manchester City. They were perhaps due for an emotional letdown against the Hammers last week. The Foxes also maintained their back-five formation from their win over Man City against West Ham which is puzzling since that is a good counter to a pressing team like the Cityzens but less strategic against a similar counter-attacking team like the Hammers. Look for Leicester City to return to their typical 4-1-4 formation. Even after getting shutout in their last EPL match before the international break, the Foxes still entered this match week tied for the lead in the league with 12 goals. They are dealing with some injuries with the absence of Wilfried Ndidi most concerning to me — but they also upset Man City undermanned including not having Ndidi to patrol their defensive midfield. Leicester City remains a clear top-half of the table team who should compete to qualify for the Champions League after narrowly missing in the summer with their fifth-place final result after Project Restart. Aston Villa has been the surprise of the league with their perfect 3-0 start which was culminated with their shocking victory over the reigning EPL champs. It was just less than three months ago that they avoided relegation on the last day of the EPL campaign. The Villans are playing better as they are unbeaten in their last seven matches. And they have made some nice additions in the transfer window. Yet, let’s keep perspective. Three of their goals against Liverpool came via a deflection. They opened the season with a victory over a rebuilding Sheffield United side who were playing with ten men most of that match — yet Aston Villa managed just a 1.04 expected goals mark in that match. The Villans then defeated a Fulham team that looks likely to be the doormats of the league. Aston Villa has scored 11 goals but their expected goals drop to just 5.91.
FINAL TAKE: The Villans may be in second place entering the week but the expected points metric (xPTS) places them just 10th in the league. This will be just their second road match of the season after defeating Fulham away from home — and they were second to last season in expected goal differential on the road. They are likely to experience a rude awakening against an angry Leicester City side. 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-20 |
Burnley v. Newcastle United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W0-D0-L2) is looking for their first victory of the season after losing last Saturday at home to Southampton by a 1-0 score. Newcastle (W1-D1-L1) pulled out a 1-1 draw at Tottenham last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Newcastle was very fortunate to get the one point from the Spurs last week. A controversial VAR handball call awarded the Magpies a penalty kick in extra time which Callum Wilson converted to earn the draw. Tottenham dominated the expected goals (xG) metric in that match with a 3.49 xG mark as compared to Newcastle’s 1.07 xG. The Magpies had a rough -20 net goal differential for the 2019-20 season — and they were 2nd to last in net xG differential with a -30.54 mark. They opened the season with a 2-0 victory over a struggling West Ham side — but they have played well in their last two games against Brighton and the Spurs. In these last two matches, Newcastle has generated just 0.70 non-penalty kick xG while allowing those two opponents to generate 4.31 non-penalty kick xG. The only shot that the Magpies have managed on target in their last two matches was that Wilson penalty kick in the waning moments of that match with Tottenham. After three games in league play, Newcastle is averaging only 1.06 xG. This team is riddled with injuries right now which is not a good development for mid-table teams that cannot afford to purchase roster depth. The Magpies return home to St. James where they have lost their last three matches in EPL action. Burnley lost a tough one to a likely top-ten team in the Saints last week — but they did hold them to just 0.55 xG. In their opening match against another top-ten (top-five?) side in Leicester City, they lost by a 4-2 score but won the expected goals battle by a 1.43-1.33 xG mark. The Clarets lost only two of their last sixteen EPL matches to close out 2019-20 — and they were W2-D5-L1 against top-ten opponents. For comparison's sake, their net xG differential was just -4.5 last season. Manager Sean Dyche gets the most of his talent at Burnley while playing a very disciplined and compact system. They have only allowed two Big Chances all season despite allowing five goals overall — a few were scored in freakish ways. This team has also been hit hard by injuries — but they do get starting defenseman James Tarkowski to anchor the backline again. The Clarets are also reliable when playing on the road where they are W3-D1-L1 in their last five EPL matches. Burnley generated 26 points away from home last season which was more than Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester City accrued.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley won one match and settled for a draw in their other encounter with Newcastle in league play last year. The Clarets need a win to jump up the table — and this is a golden opportunity. Burnley under Dyche is very consistent. A draw is likely the worst-case scenario — but I consider the Clarets the better team and they are playing on the road in an empty stadium. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-27-20 |
Leicester v. Manchester City OVER 3.25 |
Top |
5-2 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 30 m |
Show
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At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W2-D0-L0) remained undefeated so far for the 2020-21 English Premier League campaign with their 4-2 win over Burnley last Sunday. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) opened their EPL campaign last Monday with their 3-1 victory on the road at Wolverhampton.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was impressive on Monday to score three times against a Wolves team that led the EPL last season with just 27 non-penalty kick Big Chances conceded. Wolverhampton’s compact style makes them one of the most difficult teams to score against yet the Cityzens scored three times in their building at Molineaux. Now Man City turns home where they scored 57 times last season in 19 contests for a 3.0 goals-per-game scoring average. The underlying metrics support their offensive prowess at home as their expected goals (xG) were 2.67 xG per game at home at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last ten games at home, Man City has scored 26 goals. They are dealing with injuries. Both forwards, Gabriel Jesus, and Sergio Aguero are dealing with injuries. When both these forwards are out, manager Pep Guardiola usually places Raheem Sterling in the attacker role where he is comfortable playing (this is his role with the English national team). But what has me sold on the Over is that Guardiola plans to deploy midfielder Kevin DeBruyne higher up the pitch in an attacking position. DeBruyne is an assists-machine who also can score goals with his powerful kicks — it is just that he also helps the defense out when controlling the middle of the field. Phil Foden should also be in the Starting XI given these injuries — and he is a strong offensive player. But playing KDB higher up the pitch further exposes a vulnerable Man City defense. They allowed 37 Big Chances last season with teams being able to effectively counter their aggressive pressing tactics. The Cityzens are also missing some key defensive pieces in defensive midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and defenseman Aymeric LaPorte. Man City made some nice transfers in the offseason to help fortify their defense — but it may be too early to see those players join the pitch. This team is not likely to enjoy a clean sheet. Leicester City has already scored seven goals so far this season in their first two matches. Led by Jamie Vardy and his 23 goals last year, the Foxes had an impressive 1.89 expected goals mark in their nineteen matches on the road in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: I have concerns about the Leicester City defense this season. They lost defender Ben Chilwell in the transfer market to Chelsea in the offseason. To compound matters, they will be without holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi for a few months to injury. Ndidi is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world — and his absence last season directly related to the collapse of their hot start in the first half of the season. The Foxes should score on the counter-attack — but Man City should be good for 2-3 goals (at least) playing at home with DeBruyne tasked in an offensive role for this one. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-20 |
Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
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At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W0-D0-L0) makes their 2020-21 English Premier League debut this afternoon after not playing last week given scheduling requirements ensuring a handful of teams a sufficient break after completing 2019-20 competition last month that was delayed due to COVID-19. Wolverhampton (W1-D0-L0) did play last week as they defeated Sheffield United last Monday by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City was a scoring machine last year — they averaged 2.67 expected goals (xG) per match. In their last five EPL contests, they scored 21 combined goals. They also scored at least two goals in their last five EPL matches on the road. But the weakness of this team was they would allow too many Big Chances by their opponents usually when becoming vulnerable by counter-attacks to their constant pressing approach. The Cityzens allowed 37 non-penalty kick Big Chances last season representing scoring opportunities with a better than 35% chance of success. To compound matters for this match, they will be without their best backline defender from last season in Aymeric Laporte who is recovering from a positive COVID-19 test. Man City will also be without Sergio Aguero and midfielder Ilkay Gundagon — but I do not expect these absences to impact their potent offensive attack. Gabriel Jesus is more than capable to take Aguero’s striker role as he did all last summer after the restart — and Raheem Sterling usually steps up his attacking ambitions when Aguero is not on the pitch. And Phil Foden is expected to play of Gundagon who is more active as an offensive player but not quite as skilled defensively. Man City saw at last nine combined goals scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Wolverhampton generated a solid 1.87 xG in their win over a defensive-minded Sheffield United last Monday. But despite the clean sheet, they did display vulnerabilities in their defense with the Blades xG being at 1.03. The Wolves then played midweek last Thursday in a 1-0 loss to Stoke City in Carabou Cup action. While manager Nuno Espirito Santo did not play his best forward, Raul Jimenez, in that match, he did use six of his usual starters, which risks them being a bit fatigued for this match. A tired Wolverhampton team may leave them not quite as stout defensively.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton are a fantastic counter-attacking team — and this is the system that tends to give Man City the most trouble since it is designed to take advantage of the high-pressing powerful attacking teams. When these two teams played at Molineaux last season, the Cityzens raced out to a 2-0 lead before the Wolves responded with three straight goals to pull off the home upset. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-14-20 |
Chelsea v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (0-0-0) returns to the pitch after tying to 3rd place in the English Premier League last month with Manchester United. Brighton (0-0-0) staved off relegation in Project Restart this summer with 41 points which were seven points clear but still finished only 15th in the EPL table.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea made a dynamic splash into the transfer market after the EPL season finally concluded. They had already signed defensive midfielder Hakim Ziyech in the winter period and they fortified their leaky defense with a nice signing of Thiago Silva from Paris-Saint Germain but he is not likely to start yet for this team today. But the signings that drew more attention were the blockbuster deals that brought over Timo Werner and Kai Havertz from the German Bundesliga. These two young offensive dynamos combined to score 52 goals in the Bundesliga last season. Werner will play the attacker position where he thrived for RB Leipzig. Werner has been on my radar since starring for the German national team in the 2017 Confederations Cup — he is the heir apparent to Robert Lewandowski who was the top scorer for Bayern Munich’s Champions League victories club last month. Werner will be a Golden Boot contender this season. But it is Havertz who may still be the more exciting player. At 6’2, he is a matchup nightmare who played in the midfield for Bayer Leverkusen but can also take on the attacker role. These two join a group that was already a high-scoring team in the EPL. The Blues scored 69 goals last year but their expected goals were +9.3 higher at 78.3 xG. Adding two technicians to the mix like Werner and Havertz will help get the actual goals closer to the expected goals mark. Christian Pulisic is dealing with a knock and not likely to play — but Chelsea has an abundance of riches in offensive talent even without him or Willian who they let go sign with Arsenal. The Blues will miss holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic for this contest which will hurt their defensive presence. Defense is an issue — while they scored ten goals in their five road games after the restart, they conceded fourteen goals in those matches. Brighton should score in this one. They only scored 39 goals last year but their xG was +8.42 goals higher at a 47.24 xG clip. They averaged 1.40 xG per match. But they also had an expected goals allowed mark of 60.42 which was +6.42 goals more than the 54 they allowed last year.
FINAL TAKE: The Seagulls allowed 12 goals in their five home matches after the return to action in July. The offensive talent for Chelsea is outstanding — and Werner has already established chemistry with Havertz playing for German national teams over the years. I do worry about the team chemistry for the Blues when it comes to stopping their opponents. The Chelsea issues on defense will likely continue — and their hotshot goalkeeper they just signed will not be on the pitch yet for this one. 25* English Premier League Monday Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-23-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Paris Saint-Germain |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
104 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224301) mini the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset vicory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. Paris Saint-Germain took easy care of an RB Leipzig squad that finished well behind Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga — but they struggled to defeat Atalanta in the Quarterfinal as they needed to score two late goals to steal that 2-1 victory. I worry about the quality of opponents that PSG faced to reach the Finals. They defeated Real Madrid in the Group Stage — but that was a team that did not find themselves until after the restart this summer. RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund are good teams — and Atalanta had a surprising season in Serie A. But none of PSG’s opponents won their European professional league. Ligue 1 is not considered as strong as the English Premier League, the Bundesliga, La Liga, or even the Italian Serie A.
FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, PSG’s lack of experience in big games will hurt them here. And it does not help that part of Neymar’s reputation is failing to produce in big games. This match could be the coming out party for Bayern Munich stars like Alphonso Davies and Joshua Kimmich. 10* UEFA Champions League Bayern Munich-PSG Special with Bayern Munich (224301) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-23-20 |
Bayern Munich v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 3.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-104 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset victory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are a defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. But that does make the Bavarians vulnerable in the back themselves. Lyon had scoring chances on Wednesday — they generated 1.74 expected goals despite failing to put the ball in the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain will likely take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They averaged 2.41 expected goals per game in their Champions League contests. They were trailing 1-0 late in their Quarterfinals match against Atalanta — but getting Kylian Mbappe back on the pitch who did not start because of an injury made all the difference for Les Parisians as he jumpstarted the PSG attack with the necessary two late goals to steal that game. Mbappe was back in full force than last Saturday in helping to lead PSG to their easy 3-0 victory over a strong defensive side in RB Leipzig. And all this commentary about PSG has yet to mention Neymar who has the opportunity in this match to make the case that he is the best player in the world. Neymar may be “due” to score a goal after generating 1.68 expected goals in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals without getting the ball in the back of the net.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams with dynamic offensive attacks. Sometimes these championship games tend to be lower-scoring affairs with both teams playing cautiously — but that is a style that neither team is most comfortable playing. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-14-20 |
Bayern Munich v. Barcelona FC OVER 3 |
|
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224229) and Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 expected goals (xG). Since the return to play, the Bavarians have scored 37 goals in their twelve matches. Over the last three competitive non-friendly matches, they have scored 12 times. While Bayern Munich has ten players on their roster that have scored at least four goals this season, they are led by striker Robert Lewandowski who has averaged an incredible 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes of play. And while the appointment of manager Hansi Flick paid dividends with improved play on defense given his tactical and lineup changes, teams can score on the Bavarians. Chelsea was undermanned last week without Christian Pulisic and Willian in their attack. Bayer Leverkusen scored twice against them in both their Bundesliga fixtures which resulted in 4-2 victories for the Bavarians. Tottenham and Borussia Monchengladbach also scored against this team since the appointment of Setien. There is a very good chance that this Barcelona team led by Lionel Messi will exploit the aggressive high-press that Flick likes to deploy. Despite the final score, Barca was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They were playing without the suspended Arturo Vidal and Sergio Busquets so getting them back on the pitch will help the Barcelona attack. And if Barca falls behind early in this match, look for manager Quique Setien to turn to his young rising stars in Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati who possess dynamic offensive skills. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG.
FINAL TAKE: With both these teams deploying open and aggressive styles, expect a higher scoring match. 10* Champions League Bayern Munich-Barcelona O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224229) and Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-14-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Barcelona FC |
Top |
8-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Despite the final score, Barcelona was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They managed only six non-penalty shots in the game with zero Big Chances representing a scoring opportunity with at least a success rate of 35% or better. Frankly, I kept the jury out for this Barca team waiting to see what lineup manager Quique Setien would deploy with the La Liga season completed. The Blaugranas could put out a very intriguing XI if Setien were to go young and lean on rising stars like Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati to play alongside Lionel Messi who is still fantastic. Instead, Setien stayed committed to his aging veterans who have lost a step or two (or three). Puig did not even play last week! Setien’s lineup, tactics, and even his demeanor were puzzling last week — he may be resigned to his impending resignation after taking over for Ernesto Valverde in January. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG. Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 xG while holding these opponents to just 0.72 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is one of five teams in the top-five European professional leagues to generated a +1.0xG per 90 minutes or better ratio. The four other teams to pull that feat were Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, and Atalanta with all four of those teams in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Barcelona had just a +0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season for comparisons' sake. The Blaugranas have beaten Bayern Munich only twice in their last ten matches against them with six losses including a 7-0 drubbing in 2013 after Barca endured a similar turbulent season where they were clearly on the decline. Sounds familiar. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals *A-List* Special with Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-13-20 |
Atletico Madrid -0.25 v. Lokomotive Leipzig |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage when they defeated Liverpool on the road by a 3-2 score on March 11th in the second leg of their Round of 16 showdown. RB Leipzig advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event the day before on March 10th when they defeated Tottenham by a 3-0 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Handicapping the German Bundesliga closely this summer convinced me that RB Leipzig is a bit of a paper tiger. The Red Bulls load up against the bottom teams in the league — but they only registered one victory against the top four teams in the standings consisting go Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Monchengladbach. While manager Julian Nagelsmann has his team play tight defense, RB Leipzig can struggle to score goals. They have scored only two goals in their last three contests — and they have managed just eight goals in their last six contests across all competitions. They scored just once in their last match in a friendly against Wolfsburg that ended in a 1-1 draw. To compound matters, they will be playing this match without their best offensive talent in Timo Werner as he signed a big contract with Chelsea and decided to begin training with his new team. The Red Bulls will miss his 32 goals across all competitions this year. Rust may be a factor as well with the Bundesliga concluding on June 27th — RB Leipzig has only had that one friendly two weeks ago since that time. The cohesion of the Red Bulls’ defense was already starting to wane towards the end of the season as they have not had a clean sheet in their last four contests. This team settled for too many draws during the league play. They only lost four matches in the Bundesliga which was the same as league champs Bayern Munich — but their 12 draws illuminated their inability to put away lesser teams in the league. The loss of Werner does not inspire confidence that this team will discover a clutch gene. Atletico Madrid proved their mettle by upsetting the reigning Champions League titleholders in Liverpool in the Round of 16. Los Colchoneros play dogged defense that stifles the will of their opponents. They held their La Liga opponents to just 0.97 expected goals (xG) — and their Champions League opponents this year managed just 1.11 xG. The victory over Liverpool jumpstarted the confidence of this team as they returned from the stoppage of play by going unbeaten in their eleven La Liga matches with seven victories while outscoring those opponents by a 20 to 6 margin. Atletico Madrid enters this match undefeated in their last eighteen matches. A tactical move also made this team much better over that span as manager Diego Simeone’s decision to move Marcos Llorente up top to serve as a second-striker ignited the offensive attack of the Red and Whites. This is a very confident team.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be happy to be here at this point in their campaign with it being the young organization’s first appearance in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Atletico Madrid has been in the Quarterfinals of this event in five of the last seven years while reaching the Semifinals in 2016 and 2017. Simeone is one of the best managers in the world — and he is eyeing his first Finals opportunity with this team. In what should be a defensive struggle, look for the Atletico Madrid counterattack to create too many scoring chances for RB Leipzig to keep up. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-12-20 |
Paris Saint-Germain v. Atalanta OVER 3 |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-08-20 |
Chelsea v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.25 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210) in the second-leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the first-leg of this duel at Stamford Bridge by a 3-0 score back on February 25th. Chelsea now has to travel to Allianz Arena in Munich needing to both upset the Bavarians while winning by at least three goals to win advance to the Quarterfinals next week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: A theoretical 3-0 Chelsea victory would force penalty kicks with the aggregate score being 3-3 with both teams scoring three goals on the road (the first tiebreaker). But it is highly unlikely that the Blues will shutout this explosive Bayern Munich side. The Bavarians averaged 2.80 expected goals per game in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal domestic contests this season which is the second-highest mark of any team playing in one of the top-five European Leagues (PSG leads in that metric). Bayern Munich has scored at least four goals in five of their last ten competitive matches (non-friendlies). Manager Hansi Flick has indicated that his top players will take part in this match despite the big lead from the first leg since he needs to build up their fitness for their likely Quarterfinals match next week. Defense has been a big concern for this Chelsea team all season — they had an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.23 xGA this season. The Blues are also missing some of their key defensive pieces for this contest as well. Not only did Chelsea blow a 1-0 lead against Arsenal last Sunday in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the English FA Cup Final but they also suffered a number of costly injuries. Defenseman Cesar Azpilicueta was injured in that match and will not be able to play this afternoon. N’bolo Kante did not play last week with an injury that may keep him out in this one. Even worse, defenseman Marco Alonso and defensive midfielder Jorginho are suspended for this game given yellow cards. Chelsea is also missing Christian Pulisic and Pedro who got injured last week but manager Frank Lampard still has the services of forward Olivier Giroud. With the goalie issues Lampard has with both Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero both underperforming when compared to typical replacement level keepers. The Blues will need to play aggressively to have much of a chance.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are likely to score in this contest with Chelsea only being blanked once in their last fifteen matches and Bayern Munich having played seventeen straight competitive matches where they scored at least one goal. The Bavarians have seen at least four combined goals in six of their last ten competitive matches as well. The Blues are not a team that will park the bus. Even when getting shutout in the first leg of this showdown, they generated 1.16 xG while allowing Bayern Munich to register 3.12 xG. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-26-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Everton |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). THE SITUATION: Everton (W13-D10-L14) looks to end their season on a high note after a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United on Monday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L22) has lost nineteen of their last twenty-six matches after their 2-0 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is playing for the EPL lives in this match as they begin the day in 19th place in the table. They are three points behind both Aston Villa and Watford — so the Cherries need a victory while seeing one of those teams lose to then stave off relegation. The problem for manager Eddie Howe’s team is that they have been in this desperation situation since Project Restart yet they are just W1-D1-L6 in those contests while being outscored by a 17 to 8 margin. Bournemouth has lost nine of their last twelve matches where they have been outscored by a 26 to 12 margin — and they have lost twelve of their last seventeen contests. The Cherries have been even worse on the road where they have lost twelve of their last thirteen contests. A porous defense is the biggest problem for this team that plays aggressively but lacks a “Plan B”. They have surrendered 40 goals in their last twenty league matches. They have also given up 34 goals in their seventeen road matches in the EPL — and they have an expected goal allowed mark of 1.92 (xGA). To compound matters, Howe is dealing with a depleted defensive backline with Adam Smith and Nathan Ake dealing with injuries. Howe hopes both can play — Ake is their best defender but may not be able to recover from the groin injury that has kept him out the last two matches. The Cherries have lost fifteen of their twenty-five matches against non-Big Six sides this season — and they have lost nine of their twelve road games against non-Big Six teams while only scoring eight goals in those games and conceding 21 times. Everton played one of their best matches since the restart in spoiling Sheffield United’s Europa League ambitions with that victory on the road. The Toffees have conceded only seven goals in their eight matches since the restart. Motivation is a question with this team — but manager Carlo Ancelotti read this team the riot act a week ago after a bad 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton. Everton has not lost since. Not only does Ancelotti want to continue to see a consistent effort but he is building for next year where he expects this team to finish in the Top-Six. Ancelotti is a serious manager with three UEFA Champions League titles with Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since he took over in December, the Toffees have lost only five times — and these were all to quality opponents in Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and the Wolves. Everton has the 7th best record in the league since Ancelotti took over. This team has also been tough to beat at home in Goodison Park where they have lost only once since September. The Toffees are unbeaten in their nine home matches under Ancelotti with five victories. And they are W7-D3-L2 in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six sides this season. Everton is also averaging a solid 1.62 expected goals (xG) at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture back on September 15th. The Toffees have won all of their four opportunities to host the Cherries in their history while scoring 12 goals in those contests. Bournemouth must win this match — and that means they will be playing very aggressively. Look for Everton to score in the counterattack against a vulnerable and depleted Cherries’ backline. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may even get into the scoring act as he has shown signs of life after a dismal display since the restart. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with the Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-22-20 |
West Ham United v. Manchester United OVER 3.25 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-103 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200169) and Manchester United (200170). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W10-D7-L19) has won two straight matches after their 3-1 win at home against Watford last Friday. Manchester United (W17-D11-L8) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Chelsea on Sunday in the Semifinals of the English FA Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United saw their nineteen- game unbeaten streak across all competitions snapped in that loss to the Blues but they remain unbeaten in their last twelve matches in EPL play. They have scored 27 goals in those last twelve league games — and they have scored 19 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart. With the return of the injured Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford this summer to a team that signed star midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer period, the Red Devils are now loaded with offensive talent. Their defensive play has been a bit overrated despot thirteen clean sheets in their last twenty matches across all competitions. Since the return to play, they have only played two opponents in Tottenham and Sheffield United with top-ten scoring offenses in their seven EPL matches. And while they have surrendered just six goals in their twelve league games since acquiring Fernandes, the expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 12.45 over that span. Manchester United should generate plenty of scoring chances in this match — they are averaging more than three big chances representing opportunities with at least a 35% success rate since the return. West Ham has scored seven goals in their last two matches with manager David Moyes pushing the right buttons to get his offense going. Moyes moved midfielder Michail Antonio to the striker role where he has thrived with seven goals in Project Restart. He has benefited with the addition of winger Jarrod Bowen who was signed in the winter transfer period — Bowen has an assist in four of his last five games. The Hammers have scored at least two goals in four of their last five games while scoring twelve goals over that span. But defense remains an issue for this team as they have allowed six goals in those last five games — and they have surrendered ten goals in their seven EPL matches since the restart. West Ham has just one clean sheet in their last sixteen league matches going back to January 1st. They go back on the road where they are allowing 2.08 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 2-0 score back on September 22nd. But the Hammers have allowed 23 goals this season in their eleven matches against Big Six sides. West Ham still would like a result to clinch avoiding relegation this season — and Man United is in a dogfight for one of the top four spots in the table to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Expect a higher scoring match. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between the West Ham United (200169) and Manchester United (200170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-20-20 |
Crystal Palace v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
|
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W14-D14-L8) enters this match looking to build off their 1-1 draw at Burnley last Wednesday. Crystal Palace (W11-D9-L16) has lost six straight matches after their 2-0 loss to Manchester United on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have rebounded from losing two straight matches to begin the month by defeating Everton by a 3-0 score before earning the point with the draw on the road at a feisty Burnley side. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has wisely begun to rotate his starting XI given the busy break after his regular starters looked exhausted during this busy fixture schedule. The five days off between matches will greatly benefit this team. Wolverhampton is W4-D1-LW in their seven matches since the return while limiting their opponents to just four combined goals scored. They have limited their opponents to just 0.64 expected goals (xG) per game in Project Restart which is the stingiest mark in the league. For the season, the Wolves have an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.15 which is the best in the EPL. They have allowed only 26 non-penalty kick Big Chances representing scoring chances with at least a 35% success rate. They return home to Molineaux where they generated a robust 3.19 xG in their last home match in that win against Everton. Over their last six home games, Wolverhampton is generating 1.64 xG while limiting their opponents to just 0.47 xGA. They are also undefeated in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six opponents at home with six wins and a decisive 17-5 goal differential. Crystal Palace began the restart with an encouraging 2-0 win at Bournemouth which extended their clean sheet streak to four matches. But, in hindsight, that game said more about the sorry state of a Cherries team that is in serious danger of being relegated. The Eagles have since lost six straight matches where they have surrendered 15 goals while scoring just two times. The deeper metrics confirm those troubling numbers as Crystal Palace has generated just 0.75 xG per match while surrendering a whopping 2.08 xGA in those contests. The Eagles have been the second-worst team (to Norwich City) in the return to action — they have managed only four Big Chances on offense while leading the EPL in most Big Chances surrendered. They go back on the road where -0.85 expected goal differential (xGD) is worst in the EPL. They have failed to score in their last three road games while allowing nine goals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park back on September 22nd. Crystal Palace has nothing to play for at this point of the season with them mathematically clear of relegation in the middle of the table but far removed from any chances to qualify for the Europa League in the fall. The Wolves need the three points that come with a victory to help their Europa ambitions. With Tottenham in the English FA Cup Finals, they may vulture one of the two Europa qualify spots from EPL teams leaving just the 5th place team in the table gaining entry as the second team from the league. A victory for Wolverhampton lifts them one point above the surging Spurs in the EPL table. 10* English Premier League Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Real Sociedad v. Atletico Madrid -0.25 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-66 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (201834) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201833). THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid (W18-D15-L4) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Getafe on the road on Thursday by a 2-0 score. Real Sociedad (W16-D7-L14) enters this final match of the 2019-20 La Liga season with a nil-nil draw at home to Sevilla.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Atletico has not lost in their last fifteen matches in La Liga while holding their opponents to just a 1.01 expected goals (xG) mark in their ten matches since the return to play. Atletico Madrid has won seven of their ten matches in Project Restart while scoring 19 times and holding their opponents to just five goals. Atleti is an outstanding defensive team under manager Diego Simeone. They have two straight clean sheets which make six shutouts in their ten matches since the return. They also have eight clean sheets in their last twelve contests. But what has made this team dangerous is Simeone’s move to place midfielder Marcos Llorente up front as a second attacker alongside Alvaro Morata. That surprise move helped Atletico Madrid upset Liverpool in the Round of Sixteen in the European Champions League. Atleti is 3rd in La Liga by averaging 1.53 expected goals (xG) since the return. This is a very consistent team that has won the xG battle in eight of their last ten matches along within 28 of their 37 league games this season. They host this match where they have scored in thirteen straight contests and where they have lost only once in their last twenty-four league games. In their last twelve home games across all competitions, Atletico Madrid is W10-D2-L0 while scoring 20 goals and conceding just five times. Real Sociedad was riding high in the top-four of the La Liga table before the COVID stoppage — and this young team did not return in shape physically or mentally to take on the renewed challenge. They have won only twice in their ten matches while getting outscored by a 14 to 11 margin. They are posting a low 1.16 xG in those contests. Now they go back on the road where they have a -6.14 expected goal differential which is in the bottom half of the league. They are just W1-D1-L2 in their last four road games while getting outscored by a 6 to 4 margin. They have also failed to post a clean sheet in their last six road games. To compound matters, manager Imanol Alguacial is dealing with a host of injuries in this final game of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad is still in the running to qualify for the Europa League in the fall — but they have a few avenues to qualify even if they lose this match including the opportunity to gain automatic entry with a victory in the Copa Del Rey final next month. Atletico Madrid is in 3rd place and already qualified for the Champions League — but they want to avoid a loss which could see them finish in 4th place behind Sevilla which would then require them to play a qualifying match to enter next year’s Champions League. Besides Simeone wants to keep his team in form for their date with RB Leipzig in the Quarterfinals of the Champions League next month. And he can motivate his team wit the memory of them losing the reverse fixture at Real Sociedad back on September 14th by a 2-0 score. 10* La Liga Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atletico Madrid (201834) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201833). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Valencia v. Sevilla -0.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W18-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches after settling for a nil-nil draw on the road at Real Sociedad on Thursday. Valencia (W14-D11-L12) has won two of their last three matches with their 1-0 victory over Espanyol on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla’s strong play over the second half of the season has been validated by the deeper metrics as they have generated 1.61 expected goals (xG) over their last fourteen matches with just 1.13 expected goals allowed (xGA) over that span for a strong +0.48 expected goal differential (xGD). They had won their previous four matches before settling for the draw with a Real Sociedad still fighting to ensure they qualify for next fall’s Europa League. Los Nervionenses still have things to play for this season. While being cemented in at least 4th place in the La Liga table ensures they qualify for next year’s Champions League, passing Atletico Madrid for 3rd place not only would be a feather in their cap but also affords them to bypass the initial qualifying match hurdle that 4th place teams must take. Sevilla needs a win with a loss in Atletico Madrid’s match with Real Sociedad (which is a possibility) to seize 3rd place. Los Nervionenses also have the second leg of their Round of 16 Europa League showdown with Roma coming up next month so manager Julen Lopetegui will want to keep his group in form. Sevilla have won five of their ten league matches in the return while only surrendering five goals over that span. While the Andalusians were held scoreless on Thursday, they had scored in 27 of their previous 28 La Liga matches. They have also registered a clean sheet in ten of their last twelve league games. They return home to Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches while winning their last two contests. They have allowed just 14 goals in their 18 home games in league play with these opponents generating a meager 0.89 xG. Sevilla also tends to feast on the lesser teams in La Liga when playing at home: they are W9-D5-L1 in their last fifteen home games against teams below them on the table while scoring 24 goals and conceding just 12 times. Valencia has won two of their last three matches since manager Albert Celades was sacked after losing control of the locker room since the return to play. Voro returned as a caretaker for this team for the third time in his managerial career to offer some renewed stability (despite him being the team’s third manager this season — but this has been an organization rife with drama with players bickering with each other and the owner’s daughter taking to social media to chastise their fans. Defections have not helped matters for this team that competed in the Champions League earlier in the season. Top center back Ezequiel Garay left the team with an expiring contract this summer and forward Rodrigo is out the season with an injury. Knocks also have Voro resorting to a third-stringer at left-back in his starting XI today. Valencia defeated Espanyol on Thursday despite losing the expected goals battle by a 1.53 to 1.20 mark to the already relegated last-place team in the league. Los Che has now lost the xG duel in eight of their last ten matches since the return which suggests they have been fortunate to of W3-D2-L5 over that span. They go back on the road where they have lost eleven times this season while losing eight of their last ten matches while going winless over the span. Valencia has allowed their opponents to generate 17.72 xG in those last ten road games while producing just 4.96 xG in those matches. For the season, Los Che averages 0.95 xG along with a 1.90 xGA on the road in La Liga with that -0.95 xGD mark being bottom-five in the league. Valencia has been shutout in four of their last five games on the road — and they have scored just five times in their last seven matches overall.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla did rest their key starters in the first half at Real Sociedad on Thursday which helps explain why they did not score. Those rested starters should be on the pitch for this final league match. Valencia is still technically alive to qualify for the Europa League but they need a victory and then plenty of help to pull off that feat. Frankly avoiding rebellion and complete implosion was the immediate goal for Voro when he took over. Getting a result on the road against a quality and professional team like Sevilla is quite another. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Chelsea v. Manchester United |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-126 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester United (200406) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200405) in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is undefeated in their last nineteen matches across all competitions after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road by a 2-0 score on Thursday. The Red Devils have won six of their eight matches since the restart while scoring 21 goals and conceding just six times. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. The Red Devils have also registered clean sheets in thirteen of their last nineteen contests. Chelsea has won six of their eight matches since the return but they have just a +3 net goal differential in those contests due to a sloppy defense that has conceded 11 times in those games. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea defeated Man United in the Finals of the 2018 English FA Cup by a 1-0 score — but they have since lost all six of their encounters with the Red Devils. These two teams have played three times in the 2019-20 season with Man United winning all three matches with eight goals combined while allowing just one goal. 10* FA Cup Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200406) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200405). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-19-20 |
Chelsea v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea comes off a 1-0 win at home over Norwich City on Tuesday. While the Blues scored just one goal against the already-relegated Canaries (who were parking the bus in that match — they had only two shots in the entire match), the deeper metrics suggest that they were unfortunate with their expected goals mark of 2.77 xG. With the return to health of Christian Pulisic, Chelsea has been transformed into a potent scoring team that is energized when the 20-year old American is on the pitch. He has formed a nice combination with fellow midfielder Willian along with their veteran forward Olivier Giroud. The Blues have scored 13 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart — and they are averaging a robust 2.34 expected goals (xG) per game. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. And while Man United has allowed only six goals in the twelve league matches they have played since Fernandes joined the team, their expected goals allowed (xGA) during that span double to a 12.45 mark. The Red Devils’ defense is not quite as good as the numbers indicate (thirteen clean sheets in their last nineteen games across all competitions). The only two teams they have played since the restart ranked in the top-ten in the EPL in scoring have been Tottenham and Southampton and both have scored against them. They are also undermanned on defense for this match with Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams both dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times this season with both EPL matches along with an English League Cup match in October — and Man United scored eight goals in those three matches. While I do not expect the Blues’ defense to play much better in this fourth contest, they should score more goals with Pulisic integrated into the offense. In their only match in 2020 back in February, Chelsea peppered the Red Devils with 17 shots and a 1.36 xG mark despite being failing to score in that contest. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-19-20 |
Southampton +0.5 v. AFC Bournemouth |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D7-L6) is unbeaten in their last five matches after they eked out a 1-1 draw at home versus Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L21) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they lost at Manchester City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is the surprising favorite in this match for two reasons. First, the Cherries are desperate for the win since they need those three points in their chase to catch Watford for 17th place in the EPL table to avoid relegation. While Bournemouth may be motivated, their sense of urgency does not replace talent or cohesion on the pitch. The Cherries have been in the danger zone of being relegated since Project Restart — yet this motivation did not inspire quality efforts in a 4-1 loss at home to Newcastle United nor a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace in the last month. On paper, their narrow loss to the previous two-time defending champions in Man City along with a 4-1 win against a Leicester City side who begin this match week 37 tied with Manchester United for 4th place in the table along with a 0-0 draw against a traditional Big Six opponent at Tottenham gives the appearance that manager Eddie Howe has found some answers late in the season. Well, let’s talk about those results. That nil-nil draw with the Spurs was a disgusting display on both sides particularly for a Tottenham group that failed to register even one big chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. The Spurs were tired playing their third game in six days — and they were lackadaisical against a Cherries team that had the worst statistical defense in the league since the return at that time while allowing nine combined goals in their previous two matches. Leicester City then dominated them in the first half of their next match — before apparently getting high on their own supply at halftime as they came out sloppy and listless. A terrible error by goaltender Kasper Schmeichel allowed Junior Stanislas to tie the match on a penalty kick — and then Dominic Solanke scored just a minute later after a lack of focus defensive error. The Foxes’ Caglar Soyuncu then kicked Solanke in frustration after scoring that goal which earned him a red card while giving Bournemouth an 11-versus-10 advantage on the pitch from which they scored those final two goals. The NBC-Sports Network pundits wished to credit Howe for inspiring his team for the rally — but I think all credit/blame goes to Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers for letting his team return to the field with such a lack of intensity. The Cherries then faced a Man City team that did not start Kevin DeBruyne (who got the entire match off), Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and Aymeric LaPorte to rest them for their upcoming FA Cup Semifinals match on Saturday. The Cityzens still raced to a 2-0 lead in the first 39 minutes of that match before hitting cruise control. David Brooks scored a late goal in the 88th minute to make the final score appear closer than it felt. So, let bettors think those results represent a late resurgence. This remains a team that has only generated 15 points in the league since November. Bournemouth has lost eighteen of their last twenty-five matches — and they won only one of their last eleven matches while getting outscored by a 24 to 12 margin and losing eight those contests. The Cherries have been an aggressive team playing with a frenetic pace under Howe’s tenure — but forward Joshua King has been lost since the return to play while his partner up top in Callum Wilson has been so ineffective that he did not start on Wednesday. With these two struggling, Howe has not had a “Plan B” for his team. And the defense that has always been the weakness for this team has been dreadful. The Cherries have allowed 38 goals in their last nineteen matches with just one clean sheet in that embarrassing display by the Spurs. They have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Furthermore, to make matters even worse, their defender in center back Nathan Ake, is out for this match (and likely the season) with an injury. Southampton is W3-D3-L1 in project restart which places them tied with Everton in 11th place. Using the expected goals metric, the Saints rise to 8th place in expected points (xPTS). This is a quality team that has found themselves after an embarrassing 9-0 loss at home to Leicester City. Hassenhuttl stuck to his guns regarding an aggressive high-press — and a move from a back-four to a back-three defensive alignment after the international break in the winter triggered a W7-D2-L3 run. Southampton upset Man City on July 5th and they have upset both 3rd place Chelsea and 4th place Leicester City on the road. The Saints have played much better away from their home at Saint Mary’s as their 28 points on the road are tied for the 4th most — and the metrics indicate this is not a fluke since their xPTS rise to a 29.40 mark. Southampton has won the expected goals (xG) battle in their four matches on the road since the restart with a W2-D2-L0 mark where they outscored their home hosts by a 9-4 margin. Over their last ten road games, they are W6-D2-L2 with nineteen goals and just thirteen goals allowed. Additionally, they are W7-D2-L2 in their last eleven road matches against non-Big Six opponents while scoring twenty goals and allowing just ten goals. If there has been a weakness with this team, it has been on defense — but they have allowed only seven goals in their matches in Project Restart.
FINAL TAKE: The metrics scream Southampton in this match. At this point in the season, the concern with backing the Saints regards to their possible lack of motivation in this match since they are stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but eliminated from Europa League qualification. Yet I see several reasons why I expect the Saints to be locked-in for this match. First, they are building momentum for next fall under Hasenhuttl who signed to a four-year extension before the return to play this spring. Second, the team would love to help Danny Ings earn a Golden Boot which remains an outside possibility with his 20 goals which is second best but three behind Jamie Vardy. Third, Southampton is playing with revenge on their mind after a 3-1 loss at home to the Cherries in the reverse fixture back on September 20th. Fourth, the Saints would relish the chance to send their south coast English rivals back to the Championship League with a victory. Bournemouth cannot settle for the one point with a draw with just one more game left for the 2019-20 season. Don’t be surprised if Southampton steals a victory late with Ings scoring in a counter-attack (but take the Saints plus the goal-line for some very valuable insurance). But a Cherries loss would be devastating to their ambition to avoid relegation — and Southampton would be very happy to deliver that blow. 25* English Premier League Underdog of the Year with Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-20 |
Manchester City -1.5 v. Arsenal |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester City reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 2-0 victory at Newcastle United. Arsenal joined them that day in the FA Cup Semifinals when they defeated Sheffield United on the road by a 2-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Some bettors may be tempted to think that Arsenal will be dangerous underdogs in this contest after they upset English Premier League champions, Liverpool, on Wednesday by a 2-1 score also on their home pitch. The eye test and the deeper analytics of that match tell a different story. Liverpool played sloppy with a pair of defensive mistakes (including a rare error by superstar center back Virgil Van Dijk who might have made his first mistake all season) which allowed the Gunners their two goals. Arsenal managed only three shots in that match which was their lowest number in an EPL match since Opta starting tracking that statistic in 1992. They managed just 0.78 expected goals (xG) in that contest while allowing Liverpool to generate 2.51 xG — so they were very fortunate to pull that upset. Those metrics were eerily close to their previous EPL match against Tottenham where they lost by a 2-1 score while losing the xG battle by a 2.05-0.72 xG mark — and that is not a very good Spurs team right now. First-year manager Mikel Arteta has shifted the tactics of his team since taking over in December to have them play a defensive-oriented pragmatic attack which is the style of play many smaller teams embrace. Arteta needed to do this because Arsenal lacks quality talent in their backline defense. These cosmetic changes have helped as the Gunners have allowed just ten goals in their nine games since Project Restart. But these tactics have derailed their offensive attack. They are averaging a mere 9.3 shots per match in the EPL in their eight matches since the return which is the 5th lowest in the league. They are also generating only 0.9 big chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate per match — and their xG in their last eight EPL matches is 1.13. Arsenal is 9th in the EPL with 53 points yet the expected goals metric projects that mark should be just 43.34 based on expected points (xPTS). The Gunners are also overachieving at home at Emirates Stadium where their 33 points from a W9-D6-L3 mark in league play is tempered by just 24.15 xPTS which is 8th worst in the EPL. Man City is W6-D0-L2 in their eight EPL matches since the return with the highest xPTS mark over that span. They come off a 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Wednesday which may look listless at first glance — but keep in mind that manager Pep Guardiola rested his key players in that match. Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, and Eric Garcia did not start this match while lynchpins Kevin DeBruyne and Aymeric LaPorte did not play at all to rest and prepare for this contest. Man City is disappointed to not pull off a three-peat with EPL titles — but they can still achieve a historic season by retaining their FA Cup national title before winning the European Championship League which is a feat they have not accomplished under Guardiola’s stewardship. And while they have “only” 75 points in the EPL this season, the xPTS raise that mark to 80.98 which is higher than even Liverpool’s xPTS. The Cityzens have missed LaPorte anchoring their defense as he has spent much of the year injured. But since his return, Man City has shutout eight of their last thirteen opponents — and this includes six clean sheets in their nine contests in Project Restart.
FINAL TAKE: Man City has dominated Arsenal as of late — they have won the last seven encounters between these two teams with all of these victories by more than one goal. The Cityzens have scored at least three goals in six of those contests — and they have five clean sheets against the Gunners in those games. Overall, Man City has outscored Arsenal by a whopping 20-2 margin in these last seven battles. Man City won both EPL matches between these two teams by 3-0 scores with the last encounter being on June 17th where they also won the xG battle by a dominant 2.92-0.28 margin. A rested Man City should expose the suspect Arsenal defense who allowed their last two Big Six opponents in Liverpool and Tottenham to average 2.0 expected goals. 25* FA Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-18-20 |
Burnley v. Norwich City UNDER 2.5 |
|
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200177) and Norwich City (200178). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W14-D9-L13) has suffered only one loss in their last fourteen EPL matches with their 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton on Wednesday. Norwich City (W5-D6-L25) has lost nine straight games across all competitions with their 1-0 loss at Chelsea on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Norwich City has nothing to play for having been officially been relegated back to the Championship League. Daniel Farke has been with the franchise for three years so there is a pretty good chance he will remain the Canaries manager next season by Sporting Director Stuart Webber. Farke appears to have his team embracing defensive tactics after his squad is last in the EPL in goals allowed. Norwich City has not allowed more than two goals in four of their last six games. But the consequences of these changes has been to stifle the Canaries offensive activity. Norwich City has scored only twice in their eight matches since the return to action — and they have scored just once in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart. In their loss to the Blues on Tuesday, the Canaries managed just a microscopic 0.06 expected goals (xG) mark with just two shot attempts with neither on target. Norwich City has the fewest big chances consisting of opportunities with at least a 35% success rate since the return to play last month while managing zero big chances and just three shots in the box over their last two contests. This problem did not just begin in Project Restart. After a 2-2 draw with Tottenham on December 28th, the Canaries have scored just five combined goals in their next sixteen matches. Teemu Pukki was an offensive juggernaut for this team early in the season but he has not scored since January 22nd — and he may not even play in this match after not starting against Chelsea since he is probably not in the team’s future plans next year. Norwich City returns home to Carrow Road where they have scored just 19 times in their eighteen EPL matches. And in their twelve home games against non-Big Six sides, the Canaries have scored only nine goals. Burnley has scored only six goals in their seven EPL matches since the return while posting a meager 0.92 xG. But the Clarets have very tough to score on as they have allowed only eight goals in those contests. Manager Sean Dyche has his team play a very disciplined and compact system that emphasizes defense — and he may have the hottest keeper in the EPL in Nick Pope who has registered fourteen clean sheets this season. Pope was brilliant for Burnley in the team’s last game on the road which ended in a 1-1 draw with the newly crowned EPL champions in Liverpool. The Clarets go back on the road where they have only scored three goals in their last five matches. They did suffer a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in their first game in Project Restart but Dyche fielded a young and inexperienced starting XI in that contest after dealing with some injuries and key absences given contract disputes (and he was sending a message to management that he needed help with the depth of his roster). Burnley can struggle against the elite teams in the league with huge talent disparities — but they are unbeaten in their last road games against non-Big Six sides with four victories. They only scored five goals in those six games but they allowed just two goals.
FINAL TAKE: Over their last six matches since that embarrassment at Man City, the Clarets have allowed only three goals while scoring six times. Pope has three clean sheets over that span leading his team to three 1-0 victories with the other three results being 1-1 draws. Those last six matches for Burnley have not seen more than two combined goals scored. Now facing a Norwich City team having so many difficulties in scoring, expect another lower scoring match. 10* EPL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200177) and Norwich City (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-17-20 |
Watford v. West Ham United |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W9-D7-L9) looks to build off their 4-0 win at Norwich City last Saturday. Watford (W8-D10-L17) has won their last two matches after their 2-1 win at home over Newcastle United.
REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers are in good form right now — they are W2-D1-L1 in their last four contests while scoring nine goals and allowing just five goals. West Ham has scored at least two goals in three of their last four contests. The improvement can be attributed to manager David Moyes moving Michail Antonio up to forward as the primary attacker — and he has gelled with forward Jarrod Bowen on the wing who has been featured since he was acquired from Hull City in the winter transfer period. Antonio scored all four goals against the Canaries last week in that 4-0 victory! Over these last four matches, the Hammers have averaged a robust 2.71 expected goals (xG) while winning the expected goals battle in all four contests. West Ham returns home to London Stadium where they have underachieved this season — but they did defeat Chelsea at home back on July 1st by a 3-2 score. Watford’s last two victories have both been at home — but not they go back on the road where they have won just one time in their last nine matches. The Hornets have been shutout in their last four games away from home. For the season, Watford is generating just 1.02 xG in their seventeen road games while allowing 1.76 xG per contest. In their last six road games, the Hornets have managed just 4.74 xG in those games while conceding 9.29 expected goals allowed (xGA) combined in those contests. West Ham is going to score in this match as Watford has earned just one clean sheet in their twelve games. Ismail Sarr was playing great for manager Nigel Pearson when this team went on a nice run in the winter but the transfer who signed for a club-record has been listless and ineffective in Project Restart with just one shot in his last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are tied in 16th place with 34 points which is three points clear of relegation. A victory likely ensures the winner returns to the English Premier League in the fall. West Ham won the reverse fixture by a 3-1 score back on August 24th. The Hammers are in better form — and Watford has struggled when playing away from Vicarage Road. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-20 |
Liverpool v. Arsenal UNDER 3 |
|
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200125) and Arsenal (200126). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W30-D3-L2) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley on Saturday. Arsenal (W12-D14-L9) is winless in their last two matches after their 2-1 loss at Tottenham on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is struggling with their attack. They managed just 0.72 expected goals (xG) against the Spurs while failing to generate a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. They have scored only eleven goals in their seven league matches since the restart — and their 1.18 xG mark over that span is just 13th best in the EPL. Furthermore, the Gunners have managed only 0.86 non-penalty kick Big Chances per game since the return to play which is also 13th in the league. Some of this lackluster offensive performance is due to manager Mikel Arteta having his team take on more counter-attacking tendencies after prioritizing more defensive tactics to compensate for a lack of elite defenders on their backline. They have allowed only eight goals in their seven EPL matches since the restart with a solid 1.22 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They return home to the Emirates where they have allowed only one goal in their last three home matches. Overall, Arsenal has surrendered only 21 goals in their seventeen home matches. But it will be difficult for the Gunners to score in this match. They have a meager 5.62 xG combined mark in their seven matches against teams in the top-four in the standings. And with the FA Cup Semifinals coming up on Saturday, don’t be surprised if their best attacker, Pierre-Emerice Aubameyag is benched to provide him rest for that match. Liverpool has allowed just six goals in their six matches in Project Restart — but they have managed to score only ten times during that stretch. The dirty little secret with the new EPL champions is that they have not been a devastating team when playing away from Anfield as of late. They broke a scoreless drought lasting longer than five matches across all competitions in their last game on the road with their 3-1 win at Brighton and Hove Albion. With manager Jurgen Klopp still looking to have his team break the EPL record for most points in a season, look for his best starting XI for this contest with the Reds needing to win each of their last three matches. Liverpool has allowed only 14 goals in their seventeen league matches on the road. The Reds have also allowed just nine goals in their eight matches against Big Six sides — but they have scored only four goals in their four road games against Big Six teams.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal had produced three straight clean sheets before failing to win their last two matches where they scored only two combined goals. Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on August 24th last year by a 3-1 score but this should be a lower scoring contest. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200125) and Arsenal (200126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-20 |
Real Madrid v. Granada UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-56.5 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W24-D8-L3) has won all eight of their matches since the restart after they defeated Alaves by a 2-0 score on Friday. Granada (W14-D8-L13) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they defeated Real Sociedad on the road last Friday by a 3-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid may be the best defensive squad in Europe. They have registered five straight clean sheets since blanking Alaves on Friday — and they did that despite allowing their guests to register 1.20 expected goals (xG) which were their highest expected goals allowed (xGA) since the restart. Los Blancos were playing without their rock in the middle of their defensive line in Sergio Ramos for that contest but he should be back on the pitch after getting that match off to rest. Real Madrid has allowed only two goals in these last eight matches — and their 0.62 xGA per match is best in the league over that span. Los Blancos have held six of these last eight opponents to below a 1.0 xG mark. But scoring can be an issue for this team. Five of their fifteen goals since the return have been from Ramos which does speak to his greatness — but it is not a great sign when a defenseman is scoring 33% of your goals. Only the brilliant Karim Benzema is averaging at least 0.40 xG per 90 minutes of the Real Madrid attacking players since the return to play. Yet manager Zinedine Zidane is content to continue to play pragmatically and grind out lower-scoring matches. Their last five matches have seen two victories by 2-0 scores with three wins by narrow 1-0 margins. This is probably the formula for success that Zidane foresees for next month’s Championship League campaign with juggernaut offensive units like Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and PSG among the main challenges (and they need to rally against the Cityzens in the second leg of that Round of Sixteen showdown). Real Madrid goes back on the road where they have scored only five goals in their last five matches. Granada is a defensive-minded team that may very well play with five defenders in their back-line for this showdown. El Grana was very fortunate to score three goals on Friday on just four shots on target — their xG was a meager 0.61 in that match. Granada has scored only twelve goals in their eight matches since the return — but they have held those eight opponents to just ten goals. They expected goals metrics indicate those numbers are indicative of El Grana’s play on both ends of the pitch as they have averaged 1.33 xG along with 1.23 xGA in those contests. They host this match at Nuevo Los Carmenes Stadium where they have scored only 21 times in their seventeen home matches. But they have surrendered just 14 goals in those seventeen games which are good for a 0.82 goals-per-game allowed average — and their xGA of 1.01 in those contests is also outstanding. Furthermore, in their seven matches against teams in the top half of the league standings, they have a low 7.81 xGA mark which makes their 9.0 xG in those seven games quite competitive.
FINAL TAKE: Granada has become a very tough “out” at home with a 2-0 upset victory over Barcelona and a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on their resume this season. El Grana has much to play for now besides being in the role of spoiler as they are just three points out of 6th place beginning the day. Real Madrid needs two victories in their last three contests to clinch the league title — but things could get nervy for this squad playing on the road against a feisty defensive side. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-13-20 |
Southampton v. Manchester United OVER 3 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D5-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Everton on Thursday. Manchester United (W16-D10-L8) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Aston Villa on the road last Thursday by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester United as an offensive juggernaut right now having scored fourteen goals over their last four matches. The winter transfer addition of Bruno Fernandes has done wonders for this team to stabilize their midfield — and getting healthy again with the three-months of stoppage of play allowed both Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba to return to the pitch to make this Red Devils attack explode. Anthony Martial is a feisty forward who is benefitting from the presence of Rashford, Fernandes, and Pogba while 18-year old Mason Greenwood is suddenly thriving as another attacker with this embarrassment of riches for manager Gunnar Solskjaer. Man United has been a streaky team under Solskjaer who has been under fire — but he has been smart enough to not rock the boat with a good thing going so I do not expect lineup changes for this match (perhaps midweek). The Red Devils have scored seventeen goals in their six matches across all competitions since the return to play. They return home to Old Trafford where they have scored 37 goals in their seventeen league matches. They are also averaging a healthy 1.97 expected goals in those contests — and keep in mind that these seasonal numbers include playing half the season without Fernandes while dealing with the off-and-on injuries to Rashford and Pogba’s almost season-long absence. In their last four home games in league contests, the Red Devils have scored 13 times. And while Man United’s defense has been strong since the return, there have been some cracks in that armor. They surrendered two goals to a struggling Bournemouth side with that expected goals allowed (xGA) number being 1.97 xGA. They have allowed 24 goals in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides this season while conceding 11 goals in their twelve home matches against these clubs — so I do not expect them to keep a clean sheet in this match. Southampton has scored eight goals in their five matches since the return with attacker Danny Ings supplying five of those goals. Inge has 19 goals on the season to find himself in the Golden Boot race for most goals scored in the EPL this season. The Saints should have seen at least another goal in that match at Everton with their xG of 2.30 in that contest. Under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, the team plays an aggressive high press which creates more scoring opportunities while leaving them vulnerable in the back. This team is not going to park the bus — besides, they would love to feed Ings more scoring chances to help his Golden Boot chances. Hasenhuttl is convinced this approach is what is best for his team — and they did just upset Man City by a 1-0 score. But while they produced the clean sheet against the two-time defending champions, they were quite fortunate with that result considering that they gave up an xGA of 3.53 in that contests. Now they go back on the road where they have scored seven times in their last three matches. The Saints are one of the better teams on the road in the league (one of the reasons why I am passing on the side play in this match) with 55% of their total expected goals this season taking place away from home. Their 1.58 xG on the road is 5th best in the league. And they also have upset wins at Chelsea and Leicester City on the road this season.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton has allowed just four goals since the restart — but their xGA for those five games jumps to 8.41. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw way back in the idyll days of late August 2019 at St. Mary’s — but the Saints have allowed 2.0 goals-per-game in their five road matches against a Big Six side with sixteen combined goals scored in those games. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-12-20 |
Leicester -0.5 v. AFC Bournemouth |
Top |
1-4 |
Loss |
-138 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D8-L9) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D7-L20) snapped a five-game losing streak with a nil-nil draw at home versus Tottenham on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes have only lost one match in their five games in Project Restart but they are disappointed with settling for three draws over that span. Leicester City was playing their best soccer in the fall before taking a step back — but they remain in 4th place in the EPL table with a one-point lead over Manchester United pending this match week’s results. But there are reasons for optimism for this team: Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in the last two games. As Vardy goes, so do the Foxes. If he gets into form, he can carry this team on his shoulders. He has more Big Chances of scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate over the last two games matches the number of Big Chances he has generated in his previous nine matches combined. The Foxes are playing stingy defense as they have allowed just four goals in their five matches since the return. Leicester City tends to feast on the bottom teams in the league as well. The Foxes are W15-D5-L4 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 52 goals and allowing just 11 goals. Additionally, Leicester City is W7-D2-L3 in their twelve road matches against non-Power Six opponents with 27 goals and just nine goals conceded. Bournemouth has scored just three goals in Project Restart while conceding 12 goals. This is a team that seems resigned to being relegated under manager Eddie Howe who seems to have run out answers for this team. The Cherries play an open-style of play which is entertaining — but it is also dangerous when they are not scoring plenty of goals. Bournemouth had allowed nine goals in their previous two matches before not allowing the Spurs to score in their last match. That result may speak more to the woeful state of Tottenham right now under enigmatic manager Jose Mourinho than it does about any improved play with the Cherries. The 2.4 goals-per-game they are allowing since the restart is the highest number in the EPL. Bournemouth is just W5-D4-L15 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 21 goals and allowing 39 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Bournemouth did win the expected goals battle with Tottenham by a 1.50-0.67 xG clip but that was the first time they outperformed their opponent in that metric since the restart. They enter this match with two fewer days of rest which will not help their chances of fending off relegation. The Cherries find themselves six points from safety entering this match. Leicester City won the reverse fixture back on August 31st by a 3-1 score. The Foxes are motivated and rested — and they tend to play their best soccer against the weaker teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-11-20 |
Betis v. Atletico Madrid -1 |
|
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (201906) minus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201905). THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid (W16-D15-L4) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen contests across all competitions with their 1-1 draw at Celta de Vigo on Tuesday. Real Betis (W10-D11-L4) looks to build off a 3-0 win over Osasuna on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was just the second win since the return for Los Verdiblancos — but that victory was against the last place Espanyol. Real Betis then hired Manuel Pellegrini the next day to a three-year contract which will begin for the 2020-21 campaign. Interim manager and current Sporting Director Alexis Trujillo will remain on the sidelines for this team for this match — but the players may experience an emotional letdown with things settled for next season. Los Verdiblancos go back on the road where they are winless in their last ten matches. Real Betis is averaging just 1.13 expected goals (xG) in their seventeen road matches in league play while allowing 1.91 expected goals (xGA) which compares unfavorably to their 1.79 xG - 1.32 xGA mark when playing at home. Los Verdiblancos have scored more than one goal just twice in their last ten road matches. Scoring will be difficult for Real Betis at Wanda Metropolitano where Atletico Madrid has allowed only ten goals in La Liga which is the stingiest mark in the league. Atleti has registered seven clean sheets in their last eleven home games. They have won all three of their home matches since the restart with a 2.04 xG mark along with holding their three guests to just 0.76 xGA. Atletico Madrid has won five of their eight matches since the return to action last month — and they have won the expected goals battle in all eight matches. Furthermore, Atleti has won the xG battle in twenty-eight of their thirty-five league matches this season. Despite settling for the 1-1 draw on Tuesday on the road at Celta, they won the xG battle by a 1.12-0.31 clip in that contest. They have scored a healthy 16 goals in their eight matches since the return while posting a solid 13.6 combined xG mark in those games. They return home where they have lost only once in their last twenty-four league games — and they have scored in twelve straight home games.
FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid can all-but clinch their spot in the Champions League with three more points that come with a victory as they currently sit tied with Sevilla in 3rd place in the table. 3rd place also avoids additional qualifying hurdles for the new Champions League season which manager Diego Simeone would prefer to avoid. Real Betis has little to play for now with a new manager in place. They are sitting in the middle of the table in 13th place where they are 9 points safe from relegation but a dozen points shy of 6th place and the last guaranteed spot for the Europa League in the fall. Atletico Madrid defeated Real Betis on the road by a 2-1 score back on December 22nd. Look for Atleti to have an easier time of it in this rematch. 20* La Liga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atletico Madrid (201906) minus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201905). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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