With Miami up from +7.5 to +8.5 for the championship game, backing the Hurricanes playing on their home field should be an advantage for them. But this won’t be a typical Miami home game as it is expected to be 50 percent green and 50 percent red in the stands, and maybe a few more in crimson. The Canes have the defense to compete, and they will have to stop the run of Indiana and harass Fernando Mendoza on passing downs. However, when the Hoosiers have come to play, they dominate. Look for this to be close to the third quarter, when Indiana’s pass rush starts to speed up QB Carson Beck and the Hoosiers' excellent secondary makes plays. Then the Hoosiers' offense rises, Miami realizes they can’t win, and the undefeated team scores one more touchdown to cover. Indiana has only allowed more than 20 points twice, once to Penn State, playing a flat game, and in the last game in junk time against Oregon. I’ll take Indiana winning 27-16.

Though Indiana has gotten the attention of the public and public bettors, the Hoosiers slid a point midweek from -4.5 to -3.5. That is not a shocking development if you are on board with thinking – Hard to beat a college football team twice in one season. Indiana has frequently shown how dominant it can be this season, with Alabama the latest victim. Here is what concerns me about the Ducks. In the last meeting, they had 81 net yards rushing on 30 attempts. Last week against Texas Tech, Oregon only tallied 64 rushing yards on 47 attempts (1.3 YPC), and their two touchdown drives totaled 33 yards. I don’t think they have enough in the trenches to move the ball consistently against Indiana. As far as beating a team twice in the same season, Washington did it to the Ducks two years ago and played for the championship. Hoosiers by 7.

This seems like a motivation bowl. SMU blew a chance to play again for the ACC championship in being upset by Cal. A good bowl game, but enough to fire up the Ponies, doesn't feel like it. Arizona closed the season with five straight and was peaking. The Wildcats have a chance at a rare 10-win season and manufacture points with a +16 TO margin (#3 in FBS) The crowd will be pro-Arizona and they take care of business.

I still question what I was thinking in not playing Army in their bowl game. The Navy will face a run defense that allowed over 210 YPG in the second half of the season. And that was with their regular starters, with opt-outs making them weaker. With the Midshipmen, you never have to worry about effort. Navy has seven straight bowl covers, make it eight.

I’m the first to admit, I’m a big Indiana fan with what they have accomplished in two years. I do believe they are more than capable of winning this game. At the same time, Alabama might not be perfect, but is battle-tested. Bama coach DeBoer is 9-3 and 10-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. Expect the Tide to hang around for 60 minutes and come up four points short to cover. 

What a great game to kick off the New Year! As the more well-known brand, Oregon is juiced from -1 to -2.5 in this encounter. Since November 1, this reporter has stated on various outlets that three teams pass the eye-test as capable of winning the national championship. Texas Tech is one of them. That’s not a slight at Oregon, but the Ducks over the last few years have had problems with more physical teams, which is what the Red Raiders are. That’s the weakness of Dan Lanning’s teams: they struggle when they are not allowed to play fast and loose. Texas Tech deserves to reach the semi-finals and does.

What a magical season for Vanderbilt at 10-2 and not far off from making the CFP. The main storyline for this encounter is Commodores QB Diego Pavia navigating Iowa’s defense. Pavia is a magician as a runner and thrower. The Hawkeyes have not allowed 30 points to anyone and held Indiana to 20 points, USC to 26, and Oregon to 18. Bettors have pushed the Dores from 4 to -5.5, convinced the Vandy defense can limit the Hawkeyes' offense. The total has fallen from 48.5 to 46.5, which is understandable. Expect a close, hard-hitting matchup, but Pavia makes the right plays to win 24-17, giving Vanderbilt the cover and a lower score.

There is no doubting who has the more talented roster; it’s LSU. But we have an interim head coach who leaves immediately after the game for his new gig. The strongest aspect of LSU is the defense thinned out considerably with players opting out. For Houston, they are well-coached by Willie Fritz, who stresses his team not to beat themselves. The Cougars' offense played well down the stretch, scoring 30 or more points five times in seven tries. The motivation is all with Houston to knock off an SEC club, with LSU just playing another contest. Be aware of the spread, with the Tigers 1-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

Georgia Tech started 8-0, but that's when the defense began to crumble. The Yellow Jackets were stung for 48, 34, and 42 points, losing twice and going 0-3 ATS before conceding 16 points to a disinterested Georgia rival. BYU was solid against everyone but Texas Tech this season. The Cougars are the fat better defensive team, and they hold teams to 33.1% on third downs, which is #20 in the country. Georgia Tech’s offense will gain yardage, but settle for more FG attempts than they prefer. With the Cougars averaging almost 33 minutes of possession, they move 6-0 ATS playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) to complete a brilliant 12-2 campaign, with GT 1-7 SU/ATS in bowls off a loss to Georgia. 

I’ve lowered the units with the MWC off to an 0-3 start in the bowls. But I think this is a huge deal for New Mexico, being only one state over and in its first bowl game since 2016. What a great season for New Mexico at 9-3, and if not for a couple of poor coaching decisions by Utah State against Boise State, they would have played for the MWC title. The Lobos blossomed up first-year coach Jason Eck. They are chasing their second-ever 10-win season (1982). Both squads do a good job of stopping the run, keeping it below 114 yards a game, which is not impossible versus Minnesota, which averages only 103 YPG on the ground. One cannot ignore that the Golden Gophers have won eight bowl games in a row. Minnesota has no turnovers in four games, while the Lobos have forced at least two in their past four outings. New Mexico is 6-0 SU against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers in 2025.

Both offenses struggle to score many points, but Northwestern managed to do so in the Big Ten, while CMU achieved a similar feat in the MAC. The Wildcats’ run game is more likely to wear down the Chippewas in the second half, and they are stronger in the lines on both sides of the ball. Make it Northwestern by two TDs. 

Though California had a solid 7-5 record, the AD felt the program was not progressing and jettisoned the head coach. In steps Nick Rolovich, who used to be the Rainbow Warriors head coach and player. His QB will be Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who grew up 20 miles from the university in Honolulu. Hawai’i was released as a 2.5-point underdog, yet, is now up to a one-digit favorite. Cal upset Louisville and SMU, but that was in Berkeley. The Warriors are modestly better on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and they are 11-0 ATS off one or more UNDERs.

One could make a case for Toledo, which won its last four games and finally played like the team many MAC fans expected. But with the head coach leaving, I guess looking for a change of scenery because who thinks UConn is that much better of a job? Anyway, the coach and other staff members are exiting along with numerous talented opt-outs; this is not the same team. Louisville finished 1-3, but that fit two aspects, one, feeling sorry for themselves in losing to Cal and Clemson by four points, and numerous injuries across the board. The Cardinals crushed rival Kentucky and have more talent and continuity. Toledo arrives 5-10 ATS in bowl games and 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS as dogs of 7 points or more. Favorites are 6-3 ATS of late in this bowl, and I’ll say 7-3 ATS.

What's not to like about James Madison? They have every quality a fan base anywhere in the country would love. They have a great offense; they can score with a 17-play drive or go 80 yards in a single hand-off or pass.  They are #2 in run defense, permitting just over 15 PPG. If you watched a few of their games, the Dukes, from time to time, got shoved around up front while games were still in doubt. Oregon has the O-Line to lean on against JMU, and, unlike any team they have played, the Ducks have a potent passing offense. The Dukes' success in moving the ball would not surprise, but generating TDs in Eugene could be a different story. Oregon’s size, speed, and home crowd wears JMU down, to win 42-17 to cover and advance.

Alabama was a worn-out football team at the end of the season, barely escaping Auburn and being gouged by Georgia. The time off allowed the Tide to reset. Oklahoma was off an extra week, but their offense is all or nothing since the Texas game, wholly dependent on the occasional big play or the Sooners' defense setting them up for a score. Bama outgained the Sooners by 194 yards earlier. That’s unlikely to happen in Norman, but so are three turnovers for Alabama. This will still be a close game, but the Crimson Tide’s superior QB play gives them the edge, along with the revenge factor to win and cover. 

When you include the first round of the CFB, at this time, this is the only matchup that involves the conference champions. Kennesaw State has a nicely balanced offense and a good QB in Odom, who sometimes gets impatient, making bad throws. Western Michigan is #22 in running the ball and is methodical in doing so, wearing out the opposition. The Owls are #100 against the rush on the season, and in their last four contests, they permitted 236 YPG on the ground, 61 more per game than their season average. With the Broncos' rugged defense, Western Mich. can play keep away and looks to improve to 15-4 ATS as a favorite. 

Missouri State assumed its season was over because they were ineligible, becoming a new FBS member this year. With teams opting out, the Bears received an unexpected invite and will be thrilled to be in Frisco, Texas. Missouri State had a five-game win streak, but they labored in losing their last two contests. Arkansas State was 6-6 and closed 5-2 and 6-1 ATS. The Red Wolves could be on a 7-0 win streak, but turnovers prevented that. The Bears are #21 in passing, and Arky St. is #34. When you review the pass defense numbers, they come in at #78 and #99, respectively. I think we should see some points in this encounter. The key is who passes most effectively without making turnovers. I’ll say that’s Arky State, who is stronger in both lines, and hope they make fewer miscues than Missouri State. The Red Wolves are 8-1 ATS after consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

Troy’s already weak offense, which only averaged 24.3 PPG against teams that allowed 26.3 PPG, is weakened with opt-outs and injuries. Thus, even the below passing offense (#82) matched with the #128 (out of #136) rush offense isn’t great. The Trojans are ranked #111 in stopping the run, and they have to face Jax. State’s #4 rushing offense led by Caden Creel (1,085 rushing yards) and national rushing yardage leader Cam Cook (1,659). With the Gamecocks 11-2 SU against teams averaging 120 or fewer rushing yards per game, let’s side with the C-USA club.

For a lot of people who don’t even watch football, they tune into this matchup to support the country. The Navy had quite a good season at 9-2 and is favored over Army. The Black Knights are good defensively, allowing 22.5 PPG. The Army still has a strong running game, ranked #5 in the country, but it is less explosive and more plodding than in recent years. The Navy is #1 in rushing and averaged 6.1 YPC, which is also #1 in that category. The Midshipmen can also throw better than they usually do at 136 YPG. This figures to still be a tightly contested affair, but the Navy’s more potent offense will open up a lead of 10 points, and they salt it away late. 

This could easily be the national championship game, and not many would argue. (Except from the SEC) While Ohio State is the public pick, sharp money is backing Indiana, as they have slid from +5.5 to +4. At the same time, the total went south from 49.5 to 48. The dropping total works with Ohio State showcasing one of the most dominating defenses in all facets, permitting a hard-to-comprehend 7.8 PPG. Indiana is hardly a slouch at 10.9 PPG. The three best defenses the Hoosiers faced, Iowa, Penn State and Wisconsin, they tallied 20, 27 and 31, far below their season average of 44 PPG. The Buckeyes' defense is dramatically better than that trio; thus, take the UNDER. No question Indiana can play with Ohio State, but in the end, the Buckeyes have more playmakers to win by about a touchdown. 

Having Duke in this game doesn’t seem right, but they were 7-2 in the ACC, so they did what was needed. While the Blue Devils can put up points, scoring 36.2 PPG in conference play, their defense is loose in allowing 32 PPG in the last one-third of the season.  Duke wobbled in a loss to Wake Forest a few games back, but beat the Blue Devils by 17 at their place and has righted the ship. The Cavaliers' defense only allows 20 PPG, and their pressure can curtail Duke’s offense as it did last time. Virginia can use the run to soften up Duke, then air it for big plays. Duke has the revenge angle, but the Cavaliers have more to play for and are the better squad. Toss in Virginia is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having won two out of their last three games and they win by 13 or more. 

Georgia has dropped three straight and 10 of 11 to Alabama, which seems like a mental issue at this point since there was a coaching change. In more recent matchups, the Crimson Tide has held the halftime lead and has held on. That’s why it seems imperative for the Bulldogs to come out fast, something they have seldom done this season, but need to in this one. I think Kirby Smart will look to mix up the offense to get the Tide defense off balance, being more aggressive than usual. On defense, Georgia can take away the run, but it needs more pressure on QB Ty Simpson. I’ll say the Dawgs get the monkey off the back and moves to 8-0 ATS, revenging a home loss. 

Oklahoma needs two things in the regular season finale: a win to assure a playoff bid and to get its offense in gear. The Sooners look safe at #8 in the latest poll and victory, maybe even a convincing victory, would help. At the same time, the offense has gained less than 280 yards in two straight games. QB John Mateer is not throwing accurately, and opponents have taken away his running lanes. The Sooners will face a broken-down LSU squad that fired the coach, with the Tigers again not having a running game, which led to QB injuries and a lack of effectiveness. The Oklahoma front four should contain LSU’s offense. They could also force miscues, leading to points. The Sooners can establish the run, which would open up the passing game. With the Tigers 0-5 ATS this season against foes with 75+ win percentage, Okie wins 27-10. 

Not crazy about the line dropping from 12.5, but I know why. (This was at least 3U play at +10.5) I have blindly bet on this rivalry game for years. Why? The visitor is 21-4-1 ATS. And the underdog is on an 11-4 ATS run.

BYU is #11 in the latest ranking, but not in the playoff picture. (They are the lowest one-win team) The Cougars would have a rematch with Texas Tech if both win, for the Big 12 title. However, given where BYU is, they need style points. UCF needs a win to go bowling, but this season, they are averaging 10.8 PPG on the road. Now add in altitude and cold, something these Central Florida players are completely unfamiliar with. BYU is winning by 28.2 PPG at home and will look to lean on the run game to wear down the Knights. With UCF 4-10 ATS away after playing a game at home and 2-7 ATS on the road facing teams scoring 31 or more points game, it’s the Cougars by 23. 

North Texas might be losing its coach, but not until the regular season is over and maybe more. North Texas, with a win will play for the American championship. The Mean Green have the #2 passing offense in the country, and they are averaging 46 PPG. Temple was having a good season by its standards but has lost three in a row, scoring just 13.3 PPG in this stretch. With North Texas 7-0 ATS after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored, they win this contest in the 20s and play for the conference crown. 

San Diego State controls its destiny to play for the MWC. The Aztecs have to win its last two games to assure this. San Jose is 3-7 SU, and their defense has flat-out gotten worse as the season moved along. The Spartans were allowing a touch over 30 PPG, in the last month, they have surrendered 39.7 PPG. San Diego State does not have a top offense, but it should look much better taking on San Jose State. With the total at 49 and the home team permitting 12.5 PPG, a final score of 33-16 looks correct. 

I’ll take BYU here. When November arrives, the cream rises to the top. BYU was whipped by a very good Texas Tech team on the road. How did they respond? By whipping TCU at home as a falling favorite. Cincinnati was demolished at Utah, ending their seven-game win streak. How did the Bearcats respond with a bye week and playing at home? Beaten by an above-average Arizona squad. Just the fact that the Cougars are this size a favorite says a lot, and the Cincy defense is being exposed late in the season. The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive SU losses. Losing by an average of 8.7 PPG. 

I was on East Carolina last week, and they came through with a clutch late TD and held off Memphis. The Pirates are one of four teams with one-loss in the American. Though it’s been a disappointing for UTSA at 5-5, a victory extends their bowl bids to six in a row. The Roadrunners are 32-4 SU at home under coach Traylor. Included in that number is 11-0 SU versus offensive teams averaging >=5.9 yards/play and 9-1 SU versus passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better. UTSA ends the Pirates hopes to each the conference title game. 

The playoff committee did James Madison a big favor; they voted for now, they would rather have a two-loss American team than a one-loss Sun Belt squad. For James Madison, who is one of five teams outgaining foes by 200 or YPG, that is extra motivation to not only win the rest of their games but pummel the opposition. Washington State at 5-5 is not a bad club, having two away losses to Ole Miss and Virginia by five points, competing to win their conference. However, in those instances, those games didn’t matter to the Rebels and Cavs, they just had to win. The Dukes are seeing how politics matter and they are 8-0 and 7-1 ATS as nonconference faves. The Dukes by 20 or more. 

Georgia could win by 50 or more if it wanted to. But that is not the Bulldogs' recent M.O. at 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 31 or more points. With rival Georgia Tech on deck, that’s what matters, not this game.