I’m going to take a really simplistic approach to this game. In New England’s last seven games, they have allowed 15 PPG, and in the last four, 9 PPG. In the same scenario against better competition, Seattle has given up 15.4 PPG and 12 PPG, respectively. The average score of the Patriots' past seven outings is 42.6 points, and for the Seahawks was 44.7 points. In run defense, both were in the Top 6 during the regular season, and for the most part, that continued in the playoffs, with the Pats better against lesser running teams compared to what the Hawks faced. I do believe there will be more yardage gained than expected, but there is a reason why this is the lowest total since 2015 in this game. Touchdowns won’t come easy. I’m not recommending a side because I can see Seattle winning 23-20 and just as easily 23-17. Though I have made a small bet on Seahawks on the ML. This is not a big wager for me, as you can tell by the units, but I do like the UNDER.

San Francisco’s offense was rolling until they ran into Seattle’s stout stop troops. The Niners should get another stern test against the Eagles, who conceded only 14.5 PPG in Nov./Dec. We’ve all seen the inconsistent play of the Philadelphia offense this season. The battered San Fran defense has done their best, and if they can erode Jalen Hurts and his O-Line’s confidence, they can limit Philly’s point total. The Eagles figure to want to run with Barkley to keep Purdy and McCaffrey on the sidelines, which chews up time. Know this, outdoor Wild Card games over 41 points are 42-14 UNDER. 

The betting market changed the total from 45 to 48. That is partly up because top receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London both practiced, which would add to the offenses. Additionally, Arizona has allowed 40+ points in four of its last six, while Atlanta has given up 27+ in five of their last six. This one reaches the 50s. 

With Baltimore giving the ball away five times to Cincinnati, at home no less, and Pittsburgh’s offense looking like one of coach Chuck Noll’s 1970s Super Bowl squads (at current age), the total has spiraled downward from 47.5 to 43. Aaron Rodgers has stayed too long, playing on a club with limited offensive options, including his own. Nonetheless, these are the two top teams in the AFC North. This series has a long history of low-scoring games, with the latest run 8-1 UNDER. Update: The total continued to slide to 42.5. This has a 23-17 or 20-17 feel about it. Take note that home teams like the Ravens are 23-4 UNDER versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite.

The Detroit offensive line, due to injuries and departures, is no longer the same group, and that affects Jared Goff the most, making him less accurate and altering his decision-making process. The Detroit defense is middle-of-the-road but has shown the inability to make big stops in a number of games. Dallas, say what you will about Jerry Jones from his Pro Town grocery store, brought to you by Dr. Pepper, but the moves he’s made recently have made Dallas a dangerous crew, beating both of last year’s Super Bowl teams in five days. The spread dropping from 6 to 3 is no surprise. I like Da Boys, but I’m leery of backing a team right now off three covers against one three non-covers. With Dallas 10-2 OVER games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and Detroit 8-0 OVER after playing a division game, that works for me.

These two NFC clubs are chasing a Wild Card berth, with both above .500. The total for this matchup was juiced three points to 48.5 early last week. Brock Purdy brought a punch to the 49ers' offense in his return, and Bryce Young played with immense confidence in upsetting Atlanta, throwing for a franchise record 448 yards. I initially liked the Over on the opening number and could swallow the first big move. However, all the way to 50 seems too large a move. Next, in digging around, I found that when the total is 49.5 or higher, in a game involving two teams generating 1.25 or fewer forced turnovers a game, where a team like Carolina forced one or fewer turnovers in its last outing, the UNDER is 37-11. Frisco wins 27-20 for the UNDER. 

We start this game with two good defenses. The Chargers are surviving with awful O-Line injury issues, not exactly what you want facing Pittsburgh, which can create pressure on Herbert. The Bolts' defense has not given up 200 yards in each of its last two games and is starting to play as it did earlier in the season. In doing research, I found numerous systems backing both teams. Then I noticed that almost every one of those relating to these clubs had a total score of 38 to 41 points. I counted them and there were 38 in all out of 42, which are below this game’s current total. That’s where I’m going Sunday night, the UNDER. 

The Dallas offense is on fire and Dak Prescott is having an MVP first half. Though Denver has excellent defensive numbers, against teams with good or hot offenses, the Broncos are permitting 25 PPG. The Cowboys at over 31 PPG would fit that. The Dallas defense speaks for itself; it’s beatable, even with some changes against a depleted Washington secondary. The total has exploded from 47 to 51, but I think there is room with Dallas 8-1 OVER after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and Denver 5-0 OVER in home games after one or more consecutive wins with both trends north of 52 points. 

3 Unit Play. Take OVER 48.5 #1-2 Kansas City vs. Philadelphia (6:30 p.m., ET Sunday, Jan. 9)

This seems like we have two evenly matched teams. The Kansas City offense has found a different rhythm in their last four when starters played, averaging 27.7 PPG. The 55 points Philadelphia scored in the NFC title game has an outlier feel, but even if you toss that out, in the Eagles' last six contests they have averaged 28.5 PPG. Though both defenses are strong, the Philly run game should have success facing a K.C. run defense that has dropped off, which should help Jalen Hurts pass. And the Eagles’ defense is stubborn in not blitzing and Mahomes can pick them apart underneath and blend in the running game. I’ll say someone wins 27-24 and take the OVER. 

With Green Bay averaging barely over 20 PPG on the road and Chicago permitting only 19 PPG anywhere they play, the total in this NFC Norris Division rivalry (Chris Berman reference) has fallen like the temps in the Windy City from 46.5 to 44.5. Over the weekend the total went back up to 46 I'm not seeing Green Bay with its O-Line problems or Chicago generating enough offense and will take the UNDER. This season when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like the Packers have lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, the UNDER is a solid 16-8.  

Not one bit surprised to see this total chopped from 53.5 to 51. Not sure if it will be Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco under center, but with how Baltimore has been running the ball at 238 YPG in last three outings and Kansas City 22nd in run defense and 31st in yards per carry allowed, this could speed up the game. The other factor is the Ravens No.1 overall defense. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER off a road game and the Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER at home after scoring 25 points or more in three straight times.

The Titans only shot to beat the Patriots is slowing their running game, forcing Tom Brady to make quicker than preferred decisions when passing and running the football. Anything else will lead to certain defeat for Tennessee. Accomplishing all three of those elements is a HUGE task on the road for the Titans. Tennessee might be able to do a couple things on their list, which could slow down the New England offense. One can assume the Patriots probably feel confident they can contain Marcus Mariota's offense and they do not need a ton of points to quell Tennessee. That is why I expect a workman-like effort from the Brady Bunch and they win going away, 28-16, making the UNDER the correct call. 

There is a lot on the line for Carolina and Atlanta conflict. The Falcons are back in the postseason with a victory and very likely out if they falter. The Panthers will at least be a wild card team and with a triumph and good fortune, they might even have a home playoff game next weekend. This leads me to believe defense and careful football will rule the day. Atlanta's offense has not been the same as last year and they are 11-2 UNDER after two or more losses against the spread and 8-0 UNDER off four or more consecutive Under's. With the total at 45, I found the Panthers average score is 42 total points in away games and just below 40 points in NFC South confrontations. No problem backing the UNDER.

The Los Angeles Chargers after three strong defensive showing were torched for 30 points against Kansas City and basically lost their chance to win the AFC West. It did not help the Chargers that the offense committed four turnovers, placing them frequently in terrible field position. The Bolts defense should return to normal against a feeble Jets offense that is not the same without Josh McCown. Carson's finest have enjoyed a few shining moments on offense this season, however, 22.2 PPG in hardly dynamic. I'll back the lower score with the Chargers 8-2 UNDER versus AFC competition. 

Wide receiver Keenan Allen return for the Chargers Philip Rivers was like getting the band back together. The Los Angeles offense the past couple weeks has functioned more like when Rivers was younger and Allen presence has freed up other players, with Rivers is taking full advantage of this. With Cleveland the second-worst defensive team in allowing points at 26.3 PPG, it would seem Carson, CA's favorite football team should exploit this. With the total at 43, the Browns have shown the ability to give points away and score in the fourth quarter of games that are over, which could provide a backdoor cover if necessary. Additionally, road teams like Cleveland scoring 17 or less points a game, after tallying that many or less in two straight contests are 28-5 OVER the next time out. 

Among the lowest scoring teams in the league are San Francisco at 17 points a game and Chicago right behind them at 16.1 PPG. In spite of this, neither team has played an inordinate amount of low scoring contests, though the Bears are close at 7-4 UNDER. However, if you subtract each club's highest scoring total in their past five outings, the Niners come in at 10.7 PPG and Chicago at 11.7 PPG. Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo provides a spark for San Fran, but the average score for both teams in road/home situations is below 40 points, which leads to an UNDER play. 

Philadelphia has the top scoring offense in the NFL at 32 PPG and they are 6-4 OVER on the season, so where does the idea of a lower score come into play? The Chicago defense has not played poorly and is middle of the pack at 22.1 PPG allowed. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense has piled up the points, yet I wonder off big Dallas victory and having a three-game road trip on deck starting in Seattle, if we will Philly at its best. The Bears are 27th in ringing up points at 17.4 PPG and it would take quite an imagination to think they will push past that figure, with Philadelphia holding opponents to 16.6 PPG in last half dozen contests. 

Outside of six quarters of football, the Cincinnati offense has not done much. NFL analysts have regularly vilipend the Bengals offensive line, who is not passing blocking to give Andy Dalton time to throw nor created many running lane for backs. Cincy did score 31 points against Cleveland and being able to do battle with Indianapolis should raise the Bengals scoring average with the Colts conceding a league-worst 31.7 points a contest. With the listed total at 42, all we need from Indy is their season average 17 PPG. For good measure, the Colts are 9-1 OVER as a road underdog the last two seasons, with average total score 54.6.