Denver looks ready for the regular season, New Orleans has yet to choose a quarterback. I’ve read reports that the Broncos will feature their starters for the first time this preseason for the majority of the first quarter. That should give them a working margin. Besides, get this, the last 40 winners of a Denver NFLX game are 38-1-1 ATS. 

Teams off a 20 or more point blowout win are 20-10 ATS in next outing. That’s Denver.  

Dallas is a historically bad NFLX bet. John Harbaugh owned the preseason for years, gave it up the past two years, and it appears he might be picking his spots this season. I say he wants a win over the baffling Cowboys. This is my Best Bet for Week 2. 

The 49ers barely got any exercise, let alone competed against Denver last week. Like the Packers, San Fran is in a good bounce-back spot and is likely to play better and make this a three-point game either way.  

The Packers fit a line movement system of mine. Plus, road teams off a double-digit loss are a solid 56-42 ATS. 

The Giants have way more to prove in the Empire State matchup. Brian Doboll is playing for his job, but has not has success on the NFLX road at 1-8 ATS. Buffalo doesn’t play their starters early, yet are 13-4 SU and ATS of late. Add in the Bills are 7-1 ATS at home, and they are the play.  

Denver is back home in front of their adoring fans and while new head coach Vince Fangio might only know how to dissect an offense rather than build one, I have no problem giving the 2.5 points on them. One of my fundamental beliefs during NFLX football is follow the coaches, history, and desire. The Broncos went through the motions last week and being at home will help them. The 49ers won their game and had a feel-good moment last week and will most likely use this week to sharpen skills and consider roster cuts. Advantage Denver. Toss in the fact that the Broncos have been motivated by a series of coaches over the years and are 20-2 ATS after an upset setback as a favorite, I'm riding these Broncos! 

Minnesota's Mike Zimmer has a good ATS NFLX record as the coach of the Vikings. But Pete Carroll's is even better at Seattle. Carroll is 24-12 ATS with the Seahawks and he's 12-4 ATS coming off a win. But it's just not Carroll, as the Seahawks are 33-17 ATS in road games, 32-16 ATS as underdogs and 19-8 ATS after allowing 14 points or less. Minny by just 1 or maybe losing outright.

The New York Giants passing offense carved up the Jets last week for 374 yards. That won't happen against Chicago. Coming off a dull loss, the Bears will have an extra step in their stride. Also, road teams after scoring 14 points or less, against opponent after scoring 30 points or more, are 27-9 ATS in NFX football. Bears win 23-20.

Miami's in for a long season and Tampa Bay could be modestly improved under new head coach Bruce Arians. Dolphins are 2-11 ATS when over .500 vs. an under .500 foe, who's off a loss. The Buccaneers, they are 17-4 ATS off a road loss and win this game 27-20.

It's the student against the teacher with Bill Belichick facing Matt Patricia. During the regular season, Belichick has a long history of success in first matchups with former pupils (though Detroit won last 26-10 as 7.5-point underdogs). Belichick normally has the Patriots sharp in the preseason off a loss not before. However, under Bill Belichick, New England is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS if the spread is -3 or less. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in Week 1 and pull the minor upset.

Despite last year's records, the New York Jets look to be the better team coming into 2019. NFL exhibition games always have an unusual flavor and this one is no different. The Jets and Giants alternate who the home team annually in this matchup despite playing in the same stadium. It's a weird series as the "visitor" usually covers and Gang Green is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS as the "road" team. Look for the Flyboys to zoom past Big Blue by four or more points.

It is a given Baltimore is outstanding in the preseason under Harbaugh and they are 9-1 ATS the last three years. Miami comes into this contest 1-9 ATS in home games after two or more losses against the spread. Also, home teams when the line is +3 to -3,  off a road loss, winning 25% or less of their games in the preseason are 5-20 ATS. Ravens by 7. 

Tennessee has been horrible thus far and I don't see them getting well against Pittsburgh away from home. My Super system says underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like TENNESSEE, after allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games are a deplorable 4-21 ATS. Steelers by 10. 

As I have stated several times, I don't like to make things too complicated during NFLX. Both teams have something to prove and should be motivated to play well. Because both teams play in the same stadium, somebody has to be the 'road' team and that is the Giants this. With the visitor a remarkable 11-0-1 ATS, I'm not bucking that trend as the G-Men win. 

I am quickly becoming a non-fan of the Denver coach, but I'll let that go this contest. I'm already less of a fan of Jay Gruden and I see the Broncos wanting to avoid being 0-3, especially coming off a game in which they should have won handily last week. With Denver 13-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite, let's call for them to win outright. 

The Bears have been terrible with seven turnovers in two games. While they might not keep up that pace, they are clearly having problems moving to more tempo offense with RPO elements involved. Whether it was starters or not, the Denver defense should not allow 42 points at home like they did last week. Look for an inspired Broncos defense, for a team that is 13-1 ATS off a home loss, versus Chicago who is 5-11 ATS on the road. Denver by at least 7.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Teams, even in the NFL preseason don't like being embarrassed. That is why I like Atlanta at home to come back and bring the emotion as a collective group after being hammered 17-0 nothing last week. Keep these in mind, the Falcons are 13-3 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points, while Kansas City is 6-18 ATS off a home loss.

Everyone thinks the Redskins suck and they are losing players as fast as quarterbacks are leaving LSU. While you cannot read a whole lot about NFLX results, the Redskins lead New England 17-10 going into the fourth quarter before being blitzed 16-0. Everyone was all excited about the Jets last week but that was at home and with Jay Gruden the No.6 pick on first coach to be fired at sportsbooks, he and his team need a victory of any kind.  Plus, Washington is on an 8-1 ATS in first NFLX home game, while Gang Green is 1-6 ATS in initial NFLX roadie. 

Baltimore gave a surprisingly weak effort last Thursday and got back-doored by Chicago. I don't anticipate that happening again, especially at home and against a better opponent like the Rams. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS the last three years in August, 7-0 ATS, when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points like it is now and 6-0 ATS if they are off one or more wins. 

Been thinking about this game for days. I expect Seattle to get off to a very fast start this season and looked very strong thus far and are 15-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread and are 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less  in last game. Kansas City surprised me last week, but they still are 18-40 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Have to do this one, Seattle by 10. 

New England is the defending champions do not need to worry about winning, but with how competitive Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are, you know they will want to win after being 0-2 SU. Besides, Detroit has largely accomplished their preseason goals and I cannot fathom the Patriots being 0-3 in the preseason and not covering one spread. 

Carolina has gone from a Pick to -1.5 in this conflict of .500 clubs. I happen to agree with line move as I expect the Panthers to be real contenders again in the NFC South and they have the better overall team. Carolina wins against Tennessee last week except for 3-0 turnover deficit. Cam and 'Cats win by a touchdown.

Because NFL Preseason stats and trends aren’t broadcast that widely, it’s very quietly known that Philadelphia has won and covered its L8 home games in the exhibition season, including last week versus Buffalo. In all of those contests, the Eagles were favored by between 3 & 4 points. Going back a bit further, they are 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in their L12. Furthermore, in the three games during that 12-game stretch in which the line moved towards the host Eagles, they are a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS with a winning margin of 23.7 PPG. For tonight’s game, the line opened at Philly -3, now it sits at -3.5. Naturally, the QB edge goes to the hosts as well, with starting QB Carson Wentz figuring to see a lot of action with backup Nick Foles sidelined. The Dolphins of course go with Jay Cutler & Matt Moore. Cutler also figures to see a lot of time as he acclimates himself to his new team. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a relatively easy Eagles win.

One has to believe new head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to change the culture of San Francisco and knows the roster will take longer. That is why he, like many new coaches want to win now, to help set the right tenor for when the regular season starts. Evidently bettors agree and have taken the 49ers from -1 to -3. One aspect I worry about, Denver also has a new coach in Vance Joseph and he has the superior squad and he wants to win also to establish himself and the Broncos are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less.

Kansas City put in a rather desultory performance in losing to San Francisco last week 27-17, and was outgained by 247 yards. With Cincinnati winning by 11 in Week 1, the money is follow the Chiefs, who have been flipped from +2 to -3. While I understand the logic, K.C. like Dallas has long placed little value on preseason game outcomes, instead trying to have best roster possible and is 0-7 ATS away off a home loss by 10 or more points.

This could be a rather intriguing contest, as these teams scrimmaged on Tuesday and several skirmishes broke out. The wagering action is following Tampa Bay, who has gone from +2.5 to a -1.5. This likely follows the path of preseason games where one team underperforms, the Buccaneers in this case (23-13 loser at Cincinnati), while the other club overachieves, like Jacksonville last week in 31-24 upset at New England where the offense piled up 447 total yards. This also fits a very solid preseason system for Tampa Bay, as road teams having scored 14 points or less in last game, facing opponent who scored 30 points or more, are 25-8 ATS. 

It is really hard to go against John Harbaugh this time of year, especially on the road or as underdog, with Baltimore 13-5 ATS and 14-5 ATS in those respective situations. 

Often, when a team plays in the Hall of Fame contest, this is the week they dial it back, thus, it was confounding to see Arizona be switched from +1 to -3 in this contest. Both want to look at a lot of players, which can change dynamics quickly. I would rather take this many points than given them and am well aware the visitor is 5-0 ATS when these two collide. 

Acknowledging of course that Kansas City will be a better team than San Francisco come regular season time, I have to honestly question the motivation of the Chiefs to cover a 4 or even 4.5 point favorite line in week I of the preseason. That’s what they are laying tonight against San Francisco. Typically, HC Andy Reid’s teams just go about their business at this time of year, they worry more about staying healthy than winning. The Chiefs as a franchise are just 35-60 ATS in their L9 preseason games. Starting QB Alex Smith figures to get a series maximum in this game before turning it over to Tyler Bray and Patrick Mahomes, a pair of inexperienced guys. At that point, what edge do the Chiefs really have over a San Francisco team that figures to be motivated to establish a winning culture under first year head coach Kyle Shanahan. He goes with Brian Hoyer, who figures to play much longer in order to entrench himself as the starter. Motivation is always big in these games. I would surmise the 49ers have more.

You are going to hear a lot about Denver winning 22-0 last year against Chicago and the Bears have revenge. Skip it. These are different teams and the Bears have two new quarterbacks trying to find their way. Denver on the other hand has two QB's, according to reports desperately fighting to win the starting job and unless it is a complete smokescreen, new HC Vance Joseph has stated this game's results will go a long way in determining who will start Week 1. Talk about motivation! Denver is 6-0 ATS of late in their first preseason contest and comes away the winner.  

I never have a problem backing Baltimore John Harbaugh in August since he is 23-13 ATS. Taking this further, with the total at 37.5, Harbaugh and company is 14-4 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. From one of my pals in the D.C. area, he told me Harbaugh is no fan of Washington's Jay Gruden and who love to stick it to him.