(3 Unit Play Under) The Houston Texans have the most consistent defense in the NFL. They are great at getting pressure on the opposing quarterback. Houston does a great job not giving up big plays too. 

Drake Maye is a very good quarterback, but he has faced a weak schedule of opposing defenses. Now, he's up against the best of the bunch. The Patriots should move the ball here, but I think they will struggle in the red zone. The Texans defense is great on late downs.

Houston scored a lot of points against Pittsburgh, but the offense was a mess. Stroud seems like he isn't completely healthy. The running game isn't likely to have nearly the success it had against the Steelers mediocre run defense.

A hard fought lower scoring game. Take the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The under has been a great bet in outdoor NFL playoff games in the last decade. Both games went over the total yesterday, but I think this one shows some value on the under.

The Chargers rank first in the NFL in opponent QBR allowed. This Chargers secondary is very underrated by some people, and I think they can give the young QB Drake Maye some trouble here. Maye and the Patriots will move the ball, but he could make some mistakes and the Pats are likely to settle for some field goals.

The Chargers offense is still very weak on the offensive line. That has forced Justin Herbert to scramble more often. The Chargers are going to play slowly and try to shorten the game as well, which is clearly a positive for the under. Harbaugh and company are likely to run the ball more than many expect.

A tight low scoring game in this one.

Under the total.

(3 Unit Play Under) The LA Rams and Carolina Panthers meet on Saturday in Charlotte. The weather here should play a role in how the game is played. There is an 80% chance of rain during the game. The winds are expected to be about 14 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. That kind of wind and rain will make the teams more conservative.

Wild Card games outdoors have been good under bets in general, and I think this would be a solid bet without any of the extra weather.

The Panthers need to run the ball and try to use up the clock. They don't want into a high scoring game with the Rams. The Rams defense is one of the best in the NFL, and it should be tough for the Panthers to do much scoring. 

If the Rams do jump out to a lead it would make sense for them to be happy to run and get out of here with a win.

On the under in this one. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Raiders offense is dead last in the NFL in yards per play in the last three weeks. The Raiders are likely to start Kenny Pickett here. I don't think he'll fix any of their problems. 

The Raiders are actually 11th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This defense hasn't been bad. The pass rush is excellent, and they should be able to get into the backfield quite a bit here. 

The Eagles defense is above average, and they do a good job not giving up big plays. 

The weather in this one is interesting. A very chilly day with a temperature in the upper 20's and winds of 15 mph and gusts to 28 mph. There is a slight chance for snow showers as well.

On the under in this one. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The weather in Green Bay is set to be very cold here, but the cold doesn't hurt scoring. We're looking for wind and there isn't very much of it here. Still, because bettors see frigid weather they immediately bet the total down. The long term angles show the over has actually done very well in the coldest temperature games. I believe that is largely because of the value created from the marketplace blindly betting these games down.

Green Bay gets Jayden Reed back and that helps their passing attack a great deal. Chicago should be able to run the football here, especially with Green Bay elite run stuffer Devonte Wyatt out with an injury. Swift should have a good game in this one. 

Chicago's linebacker group is still banged up, and the Green Bay offense is getting in rhythm of late. 

On the over in this one. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Cleveland Browns are going to play a conservative style of football with Sanders as the starting quarterback. I'd expect to see more of Judkins in the Wildcat formation in this one. Cleveland will be much run heavier than the average NFL team here.

San Francisco can struggle on offense at times in poor conditions and the weather should hurt a California team here.

It will be cold and very windy in this one. Sustained winds of 23 mph with gusts of 40 mph are expected in Cleveland for this contest. We know this is a stadium where the winds play a huge role.

Under.

(3 Unit Play Over) The Seattle Seahawks have had one of the top three offenses in the NFL this season. Sam Darnold is well known for his ability to torch the worst teams. Darnold can have trouble when he steps up in competition. He should look good against a subpar Titans defense. Darnold has fantastic weapons on the outside and good depth at running back as well.

Seattle's defense is good, but the Titans have been a bit better on offense at home. Cam Ward is still capable of big plays.

In today's NFL, this is a very low total. The Seattle Seahawks can be counted on to score quite a bit and I think the Titans can do enough.

Over. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The under is 8-2-1 in the Broncos 11 home games with Payton as a head coach and a total of 42 or higher. 

The Broncos clearly have a top three defense in the NFL. I also believe the Kansas City defense in its current form is a top ten unit in the NFL.

I would expect a hard fought game where both teams struggle to consistently methodically move the ball down the field.

Bo Nix has taken a step back this year, and the KC blitzes should bother him here. The Broncos defense should be a really tough test for Mahomes and company. Not many teams have the ability to keep Mahomes in the pocket, but Broncos might be able to do that here. 

On the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has disappointed on the whole this year, but they are still good at rushing the passer. The Chargers offensive line is badly banged up and without Alt this is a mediocre at best offensive line. Justin Herbert is going to be under pressure here.

Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent this year, and the Chargers secondary is elite. I think the LA Chargers secondary will make things very difficult on the Steelers passing game here. The Pittsburgh run game isn't explosive either.

Under. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Seattle Seahawks skill position players have broken out in a big way this year. Seattle's passing attack has outperformed all expectations with Darnold throwing it well and Smith-Njigba having a massive season on the outside. They have two really good running back options too. 

The Commanders defense is one of the worst in the NFL. They give up far too many big plays, and that should be an issue here. Washington's offense gets back star quarterback Jayden Daniels and I think he can play well against this inconsistent Seattle defense. 

This one should be back and forth with the offenses having the upper hand. Over. 

(3 Unit Play Over) Marcus Mariota is underrated as an NFL quarterback. He also gets back a great weapon in Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has been missed badly the last four games. He has major big play ability, and Mariota takes those shots down the field. Mariota is a running threat too, and I think he can do some work here on a Chiefs defense that has been average this season. Washington has plenty of paths to scoring.

On the other side, the Kansas City Chiefs offense is back in a big way. Kansas City has scored an average of 31.75 points per game in their last four games. Rashee Rice back in the fold makes a big difference, and the running game is back too with Pacheco once again running the ball well. Kansas City has huge advantages over a weak Washington defense in this contest.

Take the over. 

(4 Unit Play Under) The New Orleans Saints offense is bad, and they have looked especially weak on the road. The Saints put up just 13 points in a loss to Seattle. They scored late after being down big in that one too. They also only scored 19 points against the Buffalo Bills on the road. The Bills are a good team, but the Bills defense isn't a good unit. The Saints gained only 4.6 yards per play in that game.

The Chicago Bears offense is certainly improved this year,  but they are an average type NFL offense now. They don't connect on a bunch of big plays. The Saints defense is a little above average in the advanced defensive stats.

Chicago is expecting a windstorm this Sunday. Wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible during this game, and that should make the two teams far more likely to run the ball at a higher rate in this one.

Take the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The Ravens defense was gashed last week and the coaching staff has talked all week about the need to come out strong on the defensive end here. I think they will answer the call and play better on that side of the football.

The Ravens offense is a mess without Lamar Jackson, and the Rams defense is top five in the NFL in most major categories statistically. I think they'll do a good job slowing down that Ravens offense that is shorthanded.

Heavy winds and rain are in the forecast for this game. Winds north of 20 mph with gusts to 35 or even 40 mph are possible in this one. Look for a more run heavy game script with both defenses loading up the box.

Take the under. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The LA Chargers have a top six or eight defense in the NFL. Offensively, the Chargers injuries have really made life tough on Herbert in the last couple games. The offensive line is a shell of its former self right now. The Chargers have been heavily penalized on the offensive side as well, and right now it is hard for them to stay ahead with their lack of offensive continuity. 

Miami is a different team without Hill on the outside stretching the field. Miami was very fortunate to score 24 points last week against a poor Panthers defense. The Dolphins gained just 4.7 yards per play and had only 19 rushing yards in that game.

Both offenses are handcuffed right now. I expect less big plays and a lower scoring game. 

Under

(3 Unit Play Over) The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up 37, 31, and 40 points in their last three games. The Cowboys defense was giving up a ton to the Eagles before the weather delay in the season opener as well. This is a bottom three defense in the NFL. They are allowing 6.4 yards per play on the season. 

Dak Prescott is still an excellent QB and he still has quite a few weapons around him even with Lamb out here. The Jets defense hasn't been nearly as strong as expected this year.

Justin Fields has been good for the Jets so far this year. When Fields has been out there for New York, this offense has been quite explosive. This is the worst defense the Jets have faced.

The weather looks good here and we're expecting points. On the high side here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Cam Taylor Britt is a key component of the defense and he is doubtful at CB. DJ Turner is another starter at CB for the Bengals and he is questionable for this one with a lingering injury. While the Vikings are starting Carson Wentz at quarterback here, I think he has enough weapons on the outside that he could do some damage against the Bengals pass defense. McCarthy has not played well, and I don't believe Wentz is a downgrade at this point.

Joe Burrow's injury hurts the Bengals badly, but that is absolutely accounted for in this line. Jake Browning is an above average backup, and he has tremendous skill position talent around him. Chase Brown is still underrated at RB, and the WR's are top notch.

Take the over here. 

(3 Unit Play Over) The Cowboys saw their game somehow stay under the total after the long weather delay against the Eagles. The Giants offense was terrible against Washington last week.

When both teams stay under in week one, we tend to find value looking toward the over in week two. That is especially the case when we get a contest played in a dome on the fast track.

The Cowboys defense got much worse in the offseason, but this Cowboys offense is still excellent. Lamb should have a bounce back game in this one.

Take the over. 

(3 Unit Play Under) The New York Giants defense is far better than most realize. Their defensive line is very underrated. Washington had trouble with this Giants defense last year, and the Giants are improved defensively this season. 

Washington has some late down regression coming this season. The Commanders got a bit better on defense themselves too.

Take the under.