We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9. 

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9 for nearly 59 percent

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9 for nearly 59 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 643-451-9 for nearly 59 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 642-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 642-451-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 542-450-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 634-450-9.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

We are updating to a version that is above 58 percent this season, hence the change in records. Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game and combined with a delta points allowed angle is 637-447-9. It’s 108-78 this season for 58.1 percent.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1290-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1290-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1290-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent whose margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23. Large dogs off a games in which they blocked 5 shots versus opponent with 15 or fewer wins is 790-588-15. Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 482-353-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1634-1288-23. . Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 482-353-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1631-1286-23.

Big dog playing terribly are undervalued and cover at 667-522-13.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1631-1286-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23. "Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

CMU is -1.3, while Kent is +3.1, making Central Michigan more undervalued by a 4.4 Luck Gap.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1285-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1284-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1629-1284-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1627-1282-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-352.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275. If not on a road game, it’s 157-87.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-352.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275. Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-352. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6.  KC has a Luck Gap undervalued edge of 4.1.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1626-1275.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1622-1273-23. Includes updated record.

Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 480-350-7. "Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

KC is -1.9, with North Dakota at +2.2 making KC undervalued by a Luck Gap margin of 4.1.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

FIU is -1.2 to Liberty at +3.9, a Luck Gap of 5.8 making FIU very undervalued here!

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. Struggling dogs in revenge of a blowout loss is 299-222-7.

Big and bad underdogs not in a true road game are grossly undervalued and cover at 156-87-3.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23.

Large dogs off a game in which they blocked at least 5 shots versus opponent with 15 or fewer wins is 789-588-15. It’s 58.9 since 2017.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1619-1270-23. Struggling dogs in revenge of a blowout loss is 299-222-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1618-1268-23. Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 478-350-7. It’s a strong 51-39 this season.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1618-1268-23. Teams on long losing streak and are big away underdogs are 11-3 all-time. If their opponent is off a road game, it skyrockets to 83.3 percent. Massive away underdogs winless in conference play are 39-19.

SEC Game of the Year

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1618-1268-23. Big dogs in slumps are undervalued and cover at 478-350-7.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1618-1268-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1618-1266-23. When combined with a big dog off a game in which they did not have a great DPA versus opponent that attempts 24 or fewer free throws per game, and the foe is fat and happy off a win, the winning percentage goes up to 59.1 with a 12.9 ROI and units won of 149.9.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1618-1266-23. When combined with a big dog off a game in which they did not have a great DPA versus opponent that attempts 24 or fewer free throws per game, and the foe is fat and happy off a win, the winning percentage goes up to 59.1 with a 12.9 ROI and units won of 149.9.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Go with large dogs off a game in which they blocked 5 or more shots and playing a team with 15 or fewer wins is 789-588-15. It’s 60 percent since 2018 at 484-323-5. 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23. Combo of the two angles is 210-104-1 for 66.8 percent and 27.7 ROI.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23.

Big Ten Game of the Year 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1612-1258-23. 

"Luck Factor" quantifies how much better or worse a team performs due to random, unpredictable events (like turnovers, lucky bounces, or missed kicks in football) versus consistent skill, using statistical models that compare expected outcomes (based on play-by-play data) to actual results, essentially showing if a team is "due" for positive or negative regression by filtering out controllable elements from their overall performance. 

We take the luck factor gap based on real wins versus what advanced analytics says the wins they should have. If for example, one team has three more lucky wins than their record and their opponents has three fewer, the luck gap would be 6. 

Nebraska has been lucky at +3.1, Northwestern at -2.9, a luck gap of 6, pretty significant undervalued status. 

Fading a team that drew at least 15 fouls last game is 1640-1310 under specific situations that apply in this game. Big and bad underdogs are grossly undervalued and cover at 823-657. Big dogs not on the road are 330-243. Combine the two and it’s a staggering 155-86 for 64.4 percent and a 22.8 ROI.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1605-1256-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1605-1256-23. Go with large dogs off a game in which they blocked at least 5 shots versus opponent with 15 or fewer wins is 789-586-15. It’s 484-321-5 for 60.1 percent since 2018. Combo angle a stunning 210-103-1 for 96.7 units and 28.1 ROI. Each of the last 3 years it’s been 66 percent or higher.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1609-1256-23. Includes updated record.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1609-1256-23. Includes updated record. My top simulator has this at just a 6.9 point game. 

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1605-1256-23 (includes updated record).

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23. Large dogs off a game in which they blocked 5 or more shots versus opponent with 15 or fewer wins 789-586-15. It’s 484-32-5 for 60.1 percent since 2018. It’s 92-55 for 62.6 percent this season. Combo angle is 210-103-1 for 67.1 percent.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23. When combined with big dogs playing terribly, it 31-8-1 for 51.7 percent winners.

KenPom line is just 12.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1603-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1600-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1600-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1600-1255-23.

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1893-1465-89. When combined with an angle that combines current to previous total, it’s 320-183-21.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1600-1255-23. When combined with a delta points allowed angle it is 611-426-9.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1600-1255-23.

Going with large underdogs versus opponent who margin of victory is 15.55 or less and drew at least 14 fouls last game is 1595-1246-23. When combined with an angle that that says to fade a team off a win that was not an extremely dominant delta points allowed defensive game for them, the combo angle is 609-42-9 for 12.9 ROI and 59.1 percent.