20* Florida/Houston Championship Game No-Brainer on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to championship game by far.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee had the home-court advantage in the Elite 8 in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage.  The Final 4 is being played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 8-1 SU in the previous nine instances, including all three underdogs winning outright.

That includes their 70-67 win over Duke in the Final 4.  Things were going against Houston for 30 minutes that they were able to overcome.  Uzan got two early fouls and picked up his 4th foul early in the 2H and played just 28 minutes total.  The Cougars overcame a 14-point deficit in the 2H and a 6-point deficit in the final minute to beat a Duke team that almost everyone thought would win the title after running through everyone else.

Florida is fortunate to be here.  The Gators survived a dog fight against 8th seed UConn, they needed a double-digit comeback in the final few minutes to beat Texas Tech, and they overcame a double-digit deficit in the 2H against Auburn.  They got to face Auburn with a hobbled Broome as well.  This is where the luck for the Gators runs out.

Florida hasn't face a team that plays with the physicality and toughness that Houston does defensively.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense and 360th in adjusted tempo.  They drag you in the mud and make you play their game.  And I think they should get the benefit of the whistle with this essentially being a home game for them being played in San Antonio.  No question the Cougars feel like they can't lose at this point after that comeback win over Duke.  They are playing with extreme confidence, and I trust Kelvin Sampson to make the proper adjustments over Todd Golden of the Gators.  Bet Houston Monday. 

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* Nebraska/Georgetown FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 152

We saw NIT OVERs thrive and now we are seeing College Basketball Crown OVERS thrive.  OVERS are 5-3 in the College Basketball Crown Tournament and 6-2 if you bet early.  Defense tends to be optional, and players just play freely in these lesser tournaments.  We got a good early number here on Nebraska/Georgetown OVER 152.

Georgetown beat Washington State 85-82 for 167 combined points in its tournament opener on Monday.  This despite the Hoyas only shooting 40.8% from the field.  The Hoyas have had to go more small ball without their best big man down the stretch, and they are 7-2 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They rank 117th in adjusted tempo so they like to play fast as well.

Nebraska is coming off a 86-78 win over Arizona State and 164 combined points.  Neither team really lit it up shooting wise, either.  The Huskers also play faster than your average team ranking 149th in adjusted tempo.  We will see more offensive fireworks in the shooter-friendly MGM Grand Garden arena tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Sunday Elite 8 Total DOMINATOR on Michigan State/Auburn UNDER 150

Two elite defensive teams square off in the Elite 8 Sunday when Michigan State takes on Auburn in the South Region final.  This profiles as a defensive battle with points very hard to come by, especially for Michigan State.

The Spartans rank 4th in the country in adjusted defense and have been riding defense and rebounding to the Elite 8.  They have gotten away with just how poor of a shooting team they are, largely due to their soft schedule to this point.  The Spartans rank 318th in 3-point percentage at 31.1% this season.  They rank just 329th in 3-point rate at 32.8%, so at least they know they shouldn't be taking a ton of them.  That also allows them to set their defense with fewer long rebounds.

Auburn ranks 8th in the country in adjusted defense and 11th in effective FG percentage.  The Tigers have great defensive guards across the board, and they have two great defensive big men inside led by Broome and Cardwell.  Nothing will come easy for the Spartans in this one.  I also like the fact that neither team really looks to push the pace as both rank middle of the pack in tempo.

Michigan State is a dead nuts UNDER team going 25-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They are 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 games overall with 149 or fewer combined points in 13 of those 18 games.  That includes 143 with Ole Miss and 134 with New Mexico in their last two games coming in.

Auburn has been an UNDER team since the start of the NCAA Tournament.  The Tigers are 4-1 UNDER in their last five games overall with 146 or fewer combined points in four of those five games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.

20* Alabama/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 171.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in Duke, which has really upped its tempo here down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games in which Flagg has started.

Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 17 of its last 19 games, including 90 or more in 12 of those 19 games.  The Crimson Tide beat BYU 113-88 last game for 201 combined points and shot 25-of-51 from 3-point range.  They aren't going to change how they play against Duke.

Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 12 games in which Flagg has started.  They are averaging 94.5 PPG in games in which Flagg has started and finished since mid-February.  The Blue Devils hung 100 on Arizona in a 100-93 win for 193 combined points.  They won't mind getting in an up-tempo game with Alabama, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -7.5

Michigan is the most overrated team left in the tournament.  The Wolverines have a negative point differential despite winning 13 of their last 17 games.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just two games by more than 6 points since January 12th.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego in the Round of 64.  They had the officials on their side when UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes thanks to a couple questionable calls.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

Michigan was then able to overcome a double-digit deficit in the 2H to beat Texas A&M in the Round of 32.  The Aggies are a poor shooting team and it came back to bite them hitting just 38% from the field and 26% from 3-point range against the Wolverines.

Now the Wolverines face a complete team in Auburn, and this is where their luck runs out.  The Tigers rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense.  They take care of the ball ranking 5th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 13% of possessions.  That's going to be the difference in this game.

Michigan ranks 324th in turnover percentage on offense turning it over on nearly 20% of possessions.  Auburn will capitalize on those opportunities, and I don't think Michigan has what it takes to keep up in what I expect to be a shootout.  This will also feel like a home game for the Tigers being played in Atlanta less than two hours from campus.  Bet Auburn Friday.

20* Arizona/Duke East Region No-Brainer on OVER 153

Duke has been a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch when Cooper Flagg has been healthy.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games in which Flagg has started.  They have gone for at least 151 combined points with their opponents in seven of those 10 games.

Arizona really profiles as an OVER team ranking 49th in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offense.  The Wildcats have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 158 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This is a pretty low total for a game involving the Wildcats, who went for 170 combined points with Oregon last game.  

Arizona has scored at least 83 points in seven of its last 10 games.  Duke has scored at least 78 points in each of the last 11 games in which Flagg has started.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* NCAA Tournament TOTAL OF THE YEAR on BYU/Alabama OVER 173

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 3rd in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The two games they didn't came against two slow-paced, defensive-minded teams in Tennessee and St. Mary's.

Now Alabama plays a team that won't mind running and gunning with them in BYU.  The Cougars rank 9th in adjusted offense and 6th in effective FG percentage.  They rank 21st in 3-point rate shooting 3-pointers on 48% of their possessions.  Alabama ranks 49th in that same category hoisting 3-pointers on 46% of possessions.  So there will be a ton of long rebounds and opportunities for both teams to run.

BYU has scored at least 80 points in nine of its last 11 games, including 91 or more points in five of its last 10 games with the OVER going 8-2 in those 10 games.  Alabama has scored at least 80 points in 16 of its last 18 games, including 90 or more in 11 of those 18 games.  I think Alabama pushed 100 in this game and BYU keeps up in a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* North Texas/Oklahoma State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

Oklahoma State quietly has one of the better home-court advantages in the country this season.  The Cowboys have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games wit their only losses coming to Arizona and Texas Tech.  They upset Iowa State and Cincinnati during this stretch.

The Cowboys have been impressive in the NIT thus far crushing Wichita State 89-79 at home and upsetting SMU as 8.5-point road dogs.  That win over Wichita State is significant here because it gives them a common opponent with North Texas, who played the Shockers twice in AAC play.

North Texas only beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 4 on the road in their two meetings this season.  The Mean Green have a great home-court advantage and used it with lackluster wins by 11 over Furman and by 2 over Arkansas State to get here.  But now the Mean Green are on the road where they aren't nearly as dominant.

The Big 12 is much stronger than the AAC and I'll gladly side with the Big 12 team here at a PK when I believe the Cowboys should be favored.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/SMU OVER 155.5

NIT OVERS have been a great bet for a couple seasons now.  The OVER is 14-4 in 18 NIT games thus far this season.  Books just can't set these totals high enough.  This is my favorite OVER in NIT play this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +9.5

The ACC was the most overrated conference in the country and it has played out in the NCAA Tournament with upset losses by Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.  Only Duke remains in the NCAA Tournament as Sunday's Round of 32.

I'll gladly fade ACC opponent SMU today laying a big number against a Big 12 foe in Oklahoma State.  Asking the Mustangs to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

SMU was life and death with Northern Iowa in the final minutes before pulling away late for a 10-point victory.  Oklahoma State will present a much tougher, more athletic opponent today.  The Cowboys put away what was previously a red hot Wichita State team 89-79 in their NIT opener.

The Big 12 clearly looks dominant going 9-1 SU in the NCAA Tournament thus far heading into Sunday's Round of 32.  I'll trust the Cowboys after playing the much tougher schedule this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +8.5

Drake is 31-3 this season with all 3 losses by 7 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, making for a 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  They drug Missouri into the mud on Thursday and forced the Tigers to play their game even though Missouri likes to play up-tempo.  Drake won 67-57 as 6-point underdogs despite a huge FT discrepancy in favor of Missouri.  The Tigers went 23-of-26 from the FT line while the Bulldogs went just 12-of-24.

I am a big fan of Texas Tech when the Red Raiders are fully healthy, but that's just not the case right now.  Two of their top three players are banged up.  Darion Williams (13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) returned from injury against UNC-Wilmington and went just 5-of-15 from the floor.  He still looked hobbled.  Chance McMillian (13.7 PPG, 43.4% 3-pointers) did not return and they desperately miss his shooting and scoring.

I was not impressed with Texas Tech on Thursday beating UNC-Wilmington 82-72 as 15-point favorites.  Wilmington only shot 7-of-26 (27%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 10.  I expect the Red Raiders to be life and death in the final seconds with Drake in this one whether or not McMillian returns.  Bet Drake Saturday.

20* Michigan/Texas A&M East Region No-Brainer on Texas A&M ML -125

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games despite a -17 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and had the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  The are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament after winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego on Thursday.  They clearly had the refs and shooting on their side.  UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

This is where the luck runs out for the Wolverines.  Michigan ranks just 330th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 269th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.

Texas A&M just out-works everyone.  The Aggies rank 54th in country forcing turnovers on nearly 20% of opponent possessions, so this a terrible matchup for the Wolverines.  Texas A&M ranks 1st in offensive rebound rate grabbing 41.7% of its own misses.  Michigan ranks 176th allowing opponents to get offensive rebounds on 30% of their misses.  The Aggies are 9th in adjusted defense despite playing in the most offensive-friendly conference in the country in the SEC.  Turnovers and offensive rebounds will be the difference as the Aggies show they want it more.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* Liberty/Oregon East Region No-Brainer on Oregon -5.5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 16-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  Oregon is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the Round of 64.  Altmann always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have won 8 of their last 9 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon played the 19th-toughest schedule in the country this season while Liberty played the 198th-ranked schedule.  The Flames only played one NCAA Tournament team all season, which was McNeese State from the Southland.  They are a good shooting team, but I think they are getting too much respect here.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene and I expect the Ducks to have plenty of support there.  Bet Oregon Friday.

20* Xavier/Illinois South Region No-Brainer on OVER 158.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 18th in adjusted tempo, 15th in adjusted offense and 41st in adjusted defense.  They let opponents get shots up quickly as they rank 8th in average length of defensive possession at just 16.5 seconds per possession.

Illinois has allowed at least 78 points in 10 of its last 13 games overall.  The Fighting Illini are 15-7-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall.  They have combined for at least 161 points with their opponents in seven of their last 10 games.

Xavier profiles as an OVER team as well ranking 76th in adjusted tempo and 49th in average length of offensive possession.  The Musketeers are a tough offense to tame scoring at least 76 points in eight of their last nine games overall.  The OVER is 11-3 in Musketeers' last 14 games overall with 166 or more combined points in three of their last four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Colorado State/Memphis West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State ML -130

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country was more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all 10 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 10 games by a total of 122 points, or by an average of 12.2 points per game.

Memphis has been pretty fortunate here down the stretch winning four of its last six games by 7 points or fewer, including a 1-point win over Tulane and a 3-point win over Wichita State in the AAC Tournament.  Give Memphis credit for rallying in the title game without their leader in Tyrese Hunter to beat UAB.

Hunter hasn't been officially ruled out, but he was in a walking boot for that UAB game, and even if he plays he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Penny Hardaway has just one NCAA Tournament win in his three years at Memphis.  We are definitely getting the better head coach in Niko Medved and the healthier team playing the better basketball right now.  This 12-seed is favored over the 5-seed for good reason here.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

25* Round of 64 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Robert Morris/Alabama OVER 165.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted tempo, 4th in average length of offensive possession and 4th in adjusted offense.  This total of 165.5 is actually low for a game involving Alabama right now.

Amazingly, Alabama and its opponents have combined for at least 166 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, making for a 10-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 165.5-point total.

Robert Morris is a pretty athletic team that won't mind getting up and down with Alabama.  The Colonials rank 140th in adjusted tempo, and they rank 39th in average length of defensive possession, so they allow their opponents to get up shots quickly.  They haven't seen anything like Alabama.

These are also two teams that get to the FT line a lot.  Alabama ranks 25th in free throw rate while Robert Morris ranks 41st.  Both also shoot the 3-pointer well as both are right at 35%.  Robert Morris has scored at least 79 points in four consecutive games to close out the season.  I think they can do enough to contribute to this total, while Alabama pushes 100 points.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-San Diego +3.5

UC-San Diego won 30 games this season.  They are the best mid-major in the country outside of perhaps VCU.  I don't think they could have gotten a better 1st-round matchup than Michigan.

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines went 11-4 SU in their last 15 games despite a -20 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and now have the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  They are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament.

The best part of UC-San Diego is turnovers, as they are 7th in turnover rate on offense and 2nd in turnover rate on defense with the best turnover differential in the entire country.  Michigan ranks just 328th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 265th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

20* Arkansas/Kansas West Region No-Brainer on Arkansas +5.5

Arkansas really showed off its depth down the stretch without two of its best players in Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero who combined to average over 30 points per game.  This was actually one of John Calipari's better coaching jobs.

Arkansas went 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Razorbacks won three of their final four games with their lone loss coming to Ole Miss by 3 in the SEC Tournament.  Ole Miss was coming off a bye and had the rest advantage after Arkansas beat South Carolina the previous day.  Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.5 SPG) is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, so reinforcements are on the way.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the country right alongside Michigan.  The Jayhawks went just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games.  They needed OT to beat UCF twice.  They have just one win against a NCAA Tournament team in their last 11 games.  I don't even think they should be favored here.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

20* Creighton/Louisville South Region No-Brainer on Louisville ML -125

Let's start with the fact that this will essentially be a home game for Louisville being played in Lexington, Kentucky.  That's the least the committee could do for the Cardinals after grossly under-seeding them with an 8th seed.

Louisville went 27-7 this season with six of the seven losses coming to NCAA Tournament teams.  Four of the losses came to SEC teams in the non-conference which is the best conference in basketball, and two came to Duke, which is the best team in the country.

I'm just not very high on this Creighton team, and I think it's a tough spot for them after playing in a grind in the Big East Tournament.  They needed 2 OT to beat DePaul, managed to get by UConn, then really ran out of gas in the 2H in a 16-point loss to St. John's.  They aren't a very deep team as it is.

Chucky Hepburn is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, and he will make life difficult on Creighton PG Ashworth.  Reyne Smith (13.4 PPG, 38.3%) 3-pointers missed their last five games including the ACC Tournament, but he's expected back for the NCAA Tournament.  He means a lot to them offensively with his ability to stretch the floor as one of their best 3-point shooters.  The Cardinals are the better team and with home-court advantage and should be bigger favorites as a result.  Bet Louisville Thursday.

20* Xavier/Texas First Four No-Brainer on Xavier ML -130

The Xavier Musketeers have the benefit of playing this game in Dayton, Ohio in their home state.  They are going to have a massive home-court advantage against Texas due to the venue.  It's less than an hour drive from Cincinnati to Dayton.

Xavier is playing as well as anyone in the Big East outside of St. John's here down the stretch to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming by 2 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Creighton by 22 at home during this stretch.

Texas is fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament after completely falling apart down the stretch.  The Longhorns needed a couple narrow wins in the SEC Tournament just to get here.  They are 5-8 SU & 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

No question Xavier has the coaching edge with Sean Miller over Rodney Terry.  They are the better team, and with home-court advantage they should be bigger favorites in this First Four showdown.  The Musketeers are also the 8th-best FT shooting team in the country.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

20* NIT DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +10.5

Handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  SMU feels like it should be in the NCAA Tournament and is disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  A 3-point loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament cost them a shot at making the NCAA Tournament.  They don't want to be here in the NIT.

Northern Iowa has known it will be going to the NIT since losing to Valparaiso on March 7th.  The Panthers have had nearly two weeks to get over that defeat and prepare for their NIT run.  I love them catching double-digits here as they were one of the most underrated teams in the MVC all season.

SMU went 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS in its final nine games to play its way out of the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset losses to Florida State and Wake Forest that really cost them.  The Mustangs have been poor in their last three home games losing by 11 to Wake Forest, by 10 to Clemson and only beating Syracuse by 2 as 13.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over Northern Iowa tonight.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Samford +7.5

The Samford Bulldogs are live underdogs Wednesday night in their NIT opener against George Mason.  This is a Bulldogs team that opened 19-7 before going 3-5 in their final eight games this season.  They were awesome in non-conference play with their only three losses coming against Cornell by 2, Michigan State by 8 and Arizona.  They beat some very good teams in Utah Valley, North Dakota State and North Alabama.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Bulldogs.

But this is as much of a fade of George Mason as anything.  This is a brutal spot for the Patriots.  They just played 3 games in 3 days from Friday through Sunday and lost in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game by 5 to VCU.  Their dreams of making the NCAA Tournament were crushed, and they won't be able to get back up off the mat in time here three days later to get motivated to beat Samford in the NIT consolation.

Meanwhile, Samford has been off since March 8th with 10 days in between games to get ready for this one.  The Bulldogs are happy to be playing in the NIT, and handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  The Patriots don't want to be here at all.  Bet Samford Wednesday.

20* NIT TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UC-Riverside/Santa Clara OVER 154.5

Santa Clara is a dead nuts OVER team that ranks 88th in adjusted tempo and 49th in adjusted offense.  The Broncos rank 28th in effective FG percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage at 37.7%.  The Broncos can light it up offensively, but they are vulnerable defensively.

They take on a UC-Riverside team that also profiles as an OVER team.  Riverside ranks 106th in adjusted offense but just 215th in adjusted defense.  The Highlanders have been playing in some very high-scoring games here down the stretch, and the same goes for the Broncos.

Riverside is 7-1 OVER in its last eight games overall with 158 or more combined points in four of its last five games, and 149 or more in seven of those eight.  Santa Clara is 3-1 OVER in its last four games with 154 or more combined points in all four games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on OVER 150.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have one of their best offenses in program history and they are playing faster this season.  They rank 10th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted tempo.  The Badgers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 151 with Michigan State, 156 with UCLA and 161 with Penn State.  The only game that went under was against a Northwestern team that is a dead nuts under team that plays slow and is without two of its top three scorers due to injury.

Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team that ranks 61st in adjusted tempo, 22nd in average length of offensive possession and 37th in adjusted offense.  Both Big Ten Tournament games for Michigan went OVER the total as well combining for 154 points with Purdue and 161 with Maryland.

I think what's keeping this total lower than it should be is the fact that the only meeting between Wisconsin and Michigan this season went way under the total with the Wolverines winning 67-64 for just 131 combined points.  Both both teams shot uncharacteristically poor with Michigan going 23-of-59 (39%) from the floor and 6-of-25 (24%) from 3 while Wisconsin shot 22-of-64 (34.4%) from the floor and 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3.  Both teams are due positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Louisville/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Louisville +6.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury in their ACC Tournament opener to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  I cashed in UNC +7.5 yesterday fading Duke without these two, and I'm fading them again today as they should not be 6.5-point favorites over Louisville without Flagg and Brown.

Duke showed a ton of heart in the first half against UNC yesterday with an inspired effort to prove they could still win without Flagg.  The Blue Devils led by 21 at halftime, but then reality set in and UNC stormed back to get within 1, only to commit a lane violation that cost them the game in a 74-71 defeat.

I have Louisville power rated a few points better than North Carolina, so I'll gladly take the points again.  The Cardinals are battle-tested coming through clutch late to prevent comebacks by Stanford and Clemson the last two days.  I think they have what it takes to hang with Duke, especially knowing they don't have to deal with Flagg and Brown.

Duke beat Louisville by 11 in their lone regular season meeting this season.  But Flagg had 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Brown had 6 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals.  That's a combined 26 points and 23 rebounds the Blue Devils will be without in the rematch.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. John's -4.5

The St. John's Red Storm have a huge home-court advantage in the Big East Tournament playing at Madison Square Garden.  They have made easy work of their first two opponents beating Butler 78-57 as 12-point favorites and Marquette 79-63 as 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Red Storm should still be pretty fresh for this game against Creighton due to the blowout nature of their first two games.  Meanwhile, Creighton was in a couple dog fights the last two days, needing 2 OT to beat DePaul 85-81 as 13-point favorites on Thursday and staving off a big comeback by UConn in a 71-62 win on Friday.

You could see Creighton players breathing heavily as UConn nearly erased a 15-point deficit in the 2H.  Now the Bluejays go up against a St. John's team that will test your stamina more than just about any team in the country.  They will give Creighton zero room to breathe.  The Red Storm rank 49th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They press for 40 minutes and make everyone work for everything they get offensively.  They rank 1st in adjusted defense.

Finally, St. John's hasn't won the Big East Tournament since 2000.  That's 25 years of suffering, and you can bet the Red Storm will be max motivated today to get it done.  I expect them to win in a blowout as Creighton tires out in the 2H, while the Red Storm only get stronger.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* Boise State/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Colorado State PK

Colorado State is the most underrated team in the Mountain West and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Rams have gone 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games overall, including 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Yet they are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they remain motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  They want to earn the automatic bid and not leave it up to the committee.

Colorado State led Utah State by as many as 28 points in the 2H yesterday in a misleading 11-point win.  The Rams were able to rest their starters late so they should still be pretty fresh for this game.  Meanwhile, Boise State has been in dog fights the last two days against San Diego State and New Mexico.  I question how much the Broncos have left in the tank, especially with their lack of depth with three starters playing at least 36 minutes yesterday in their 3-point win over New Mexico.

Colorado State beat Boise State 75-72 as 1-point home dogs in their first meeting back on January 22nd before winning 83-73 as 6-point road dogs in their 2nd meeting on March 7th.  What more do the Rams have to do to get some respect? They'll earn it again tonight.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* St. Joe's/George Mason Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on George Mason +1

George Mason has a huge rest advantage over St. Joe's today and should not be underdogs as a result.  The Patriots got a bye into the quarterfinals yesterday before blasting George Washington 80-65.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 2 days and should still be fresh after the blowout win.

St. Joe's will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two dog fights the last two days.  The Hawks only beat La Salle 75-70 as 12.5-point favorites on Thursday before needing OT to beat Dayton 73-68 on Friday.  I love fading teams in these conference tournaments coming off OT games because they tend to run out of gas in their next game.

George Mason beat St. Joe's 58-57 in their lone meeting this season.  They won that game despite St. Joe's shooting 10-of-23 (43.5%) from 3-point range while the Patriots shot just 2-of-10 (20%).  Positive shooting regression can only be the case in their favor in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* Michigan/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -4

I cashed in both Maryland and Michigan yesterday as premium plays.  But only one of these teams is a contender while the other is a pretender.  I'll gladly back the contender in Maryland laying the short number against the pretender in Michigan.

Maryland is playing as well as anyone in the country right now going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to Michigan State by 3, one of the best teams in the country.  The Terrapins made easy work of Illinois 88-65 yesterday which allowed its started to rest late and stay fresh for this game.  That's an Illinois team that was coming off four straight blowout wins including a 20-point win at Michigan.

Michigan is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall with that 20-point loss to Illinois, a 17-point loss at Michigan State and also a 6-point home loss to this same Maryland team.  The Terrapins shot just 38.1% from the field in that game and still won by 6 on the road.  There's just not much room for improvement for the Wolverines on a neutral in the rematch.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Utah State/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State PK

Colorado State is the most underrated team in the Mountain West and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Rams have gone 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Yet they are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they remain motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Utah State is pretty much locked into the NCAA Tournament now after a 70-58 win over UNLV yesterday against a Rebels team that was missing two of their best players.  I wasn't impressed at all with that win.

What I was impressed with was Colorado State handing Utah State its worst loss of the season in a 93-66 home win on March 1st just two weeks ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and the Rams should be favored here by a lot more.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

20* Cal Poly/UC-Irvine Big West Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine -10

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Cal Poly will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while UC-Irvine got a bye into the semifinals.  That's a huge rest advantage for the Anteaters, who have been off since March 8th and are highly motivated to get to the final.  Irvine beat Cal Poly 101-71 in their last meeting this season.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

20* UConn/Creighton Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5

It's Tournament Time and the UConn Huskies are as dangerous as they come in tournament action.  They won the NCAA title the last two years, and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  UConn is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

While UConn made easy work of Villanova in a 73-56 win yesterday, Creighton had to go to double-overtime to beat lowly DePaul 85-81 (2 OT) yesterday.  The Bluejays lack depth as it is, and Kalbrenner played 47 minutes while Neal played all 50 in the win.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Huskies today.  Bet UConn Friday.

20* UNC/Duke ACC No-Brainer on UNC +7.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury yesterday to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  They will almost certainly be without both guys today.

Duke should not be 7.5-point favorites over North Carolina without Flagg and Brown.  Flagg had 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists to lead the Blue Devils to a 82-69 win over UNC in the regular-season finale.  Brown had 8 points and was a menace switching on the perimeter to stop UNC's guards down the stretch.  UNC led basically the entire way until the final few minutes with Duke pulling away late.  UNC wants revenge and has a great shot at getting that revenge today without having to deal with Flagg and Brown.  Bet UNC Friday.

20* Illinois/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -1

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Illinois played an absolute shootout against Iowa yesterday in a 106-94 victory and I question how much they'll have left in the tank.

Maryland got a bye into the quarterfinals.  The Terrapins already beat Illinois 91-70 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  Bet Maryland Friday.

20* Texas/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -9.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Texas will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while Tennessee got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Texas was in two dog fights the last two days beating Vanderbilt 79-72 before upsetting Texas A&M 94-89 (2 OT) yesterday.  That 2 OT game will make the Longhorns even more tired head into this one as three starters played at least 40 minutes yesterday.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

20* UNLV/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State -7

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Villanova/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -9

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Nevada/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Colorado State -4.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Texas/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -6

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Northwestern/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -7.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Davidson/Saint Louis Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Saint Louis -3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Arkansas/Ole Miss SEC No-Brainer on Ole Miss -3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Iowa State/BYU Big 12 No-Brainer on BYU +3

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Rutgers PK

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State -1

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on McNeese State -12.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Colorado/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 134.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Pepperdine/St. Mary’s ESPN No-Brainer on St. Mary’s -18.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Bradley/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 124

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 67% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 9-1 (90%) in the first 10 games of the MVC Tournament this season.  

It will be more of the same in the Championship Game today.  This will be the 3d meeting between Drake and Bradley this season.  The first two saw just 121 and 120 combined points.  I expect an even lower-scoring game in the title game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina +5.5

East Carolina is alive for a Top 4 seed in the AAC which would get the Pirates a double-bye in the AAC Tournament.  They need to win today and have Tulane lose to UAB, and the Green Wave are underdogs to the Blazers so that is a very realistic possibility.

Florida Atlantic has nothing to play for today.  They haven't been playing well at all down the stretch going 1-4 SU in their last five games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.  They should not be this big of favorites today.

East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven games overall with its lone loss coming on the road by 5 points.  The Pirates are playing the much better basketball right now, and not only will they be motivated for a double-bye, but they also want revenge from a 78-76 loss to FAU in their first meeting this season way back on January 5th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since then, and that will play out on the court today.  Bet East Carolina Sunday.

20* Texas Tech/Arizona State ESPNU No-Brainer on OVER 151.5

Texas Tech beat Arizona State 111-106 (2 OT) in their first meeting this season on February 12th.  But that game was still tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points, so we have 28.5 points to spare in the rematch with this 151.5-point total.

The Red Raiders just got two of their top three scorers back from injury in McMillian and Williams two games ago.  They won 78-73 at Kansas for 151 combined points and 91-75 at home over Colorado for 166 combined points.  Kansas is a dead nuts under team with all defense and suspect offense, and the same goes for Colorado.

Now the Red Raiders face an Arizona State team that has completely let go of the rope defensively down the stretch.  The Sun Devils are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games overall, including three straight absolute shootouts losing 91-81 to BYU for 172 combined points, losing 99-73 to Utah for 172 combined points and losing 113-100 to Arizona for 213 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina +11.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the most improved teams in the country here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with each of their last five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 20.2 points per game.

This late surge has put the Tar Heels on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament.  An upset win over Duke would cement their spot.  They want revenge from a 87-70 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season as 13.5-point dogs.  This line is now 11.5 in the rematch, which isn't adjusted enough for home-court advantage.  It should be much closer to 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tar Heels win this game outright.

No question Duke will be motivated to beat their rival, but I don't think they'll have the same motivation they normally would going into this rivalry game.  They have already clinched an ACC regular season title and are locked in to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They already beat UNC by 17 as well, so there's not as much of a sense of urgency after already blowing them out once.  But this is a totally different UNC team from that first meeting, and I expect them to give the Blue Devils a run for their money today.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Valparaiso/Bradley MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 66% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 7-1 (88%) in the first eight games of the MVC Tournament this season.

Bradley beat Murray State 70-62 yesterday for just 132 combined points, while Valparaiso beat Northern Iowa 64-63 yesterday for just 127 combined points.  Bradley and Valparaiso combined for 126 and 141 points at the end of regulation in their two regular season meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida SEC No-Brainer on OVER 156.5

Florida ranks 67th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense.  Ole Miss also prefers to play faster ranking 132nd in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted offense.  This is a matchup of elite guards on both sides, and it should be a shootout in the regular season finale.

Ole Miss is 7-2 OVER in its last nine games overall, including 171 combined points with Oklahoma, 182 with Auburn, 174 with Auburn and 182 with Kentucky.  Florida is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall combining for 171 points with Georgia, 159 with Texas A&M and 193 with Alabama.  

Ole Miss beat Florida 103-85 for 188 combined points in their lone meeting last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Belmont/Drake MVC No-Brainer on UNDER 138.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 66% clip over the last 10 seasons.  Players just struggle with the shooting background at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.  The UNDER is 7-1 (88%) in the first eight games of the MVC Tournament this season.

Drake beat Belmont 65-46 for just 111 combined points in their lone regular season meeting.  Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo and slows games down to a crawl.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Miami OVER 149

Both Miami and NC State are going to finish in the Bottom 3 of the ACC standings and thus will not be playing in the ACC Tournament.  So this is a completely meaningless game and the final game of the season for both teams.  I expect all offense and zero defense as this game is played like a pick up game.

All Miami games are played like a pick up game.  The Hurricanes are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 163 combined points with Georgia Tech, 165 with UNC, 157 with Duke and 149 with Virginia Tech.  The Hurricanes are playing zero defense here down the stretch allowing 89.8 points per game in their last four.  They rank 68th in adjusted offense and 341st in adjusted defense this season.

NC State is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The 2024 ACC Tournament champs won't get that chance to make another run.  Look for them to let go of the rope defensively today and oblige in a shootout with the Hurricanes.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso/Northern Iowa UNDER 145.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS are hitting at about a 65% clip since moving to the Enterprise Center.  They went 3-1 in the opening round yesterday.  I'm riding every one of them today in the quarterfinals.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland -1

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall while covering the spread by a combined 75.5 points in those six games, or an average of 12.6 points per game.  All five of their ATS wins came by at least 10.5 points.

I'm willing to forgive Portland for a 82-80 road loss at San Diego as 2-point favorites in their regular season finale because they had nothing to play for.  It was Senior Night for San Diego and they were clearly the more motivated team.  San Diego went on to upset Pacific in the WCC Tournament yesterday.

Pepperdine is 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone win coming at home over San Diego.  That includes two 20-point losses to Portland, and there's no way the Waves should be getting this much respect again in their 3rd and final meeting.  The Pilots will obviously be max motivated with their season on the line and won't take the Waves lightly.  It's going to be another blowout in their favor.  Bet Portland Friday.

20* Tennessee/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss +4

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a big letdown spot after a 79-76 home win over Alabama on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  The Vols have been much more vulnerable on the road, going 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in SEC road games with three of those wins coming by single-digits.

Ole Miss is 11-3 SU at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  This is a game I fully expect the Rebels to win outright.  Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rhode Island/St. Joe's OVER 153.5

Rhode Island is very much an OVER team ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo.  The Rams are 17-10 OVER in all games this season.  The Rams are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games with 157 or more combined points in five of them.

St. Joe's is one of the best offensive teams in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have scored at least 75 points in six of their last seven games overall.  They rank 135th in adjusted tempo so they don't mind getting up and down.

The OVER is 3-0 in Hawks last three games overall, including 166 combined points with Fordham last time out.  This will be yet another shootout involving Rhode Island tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  The Musketeers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to play themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier is coming off a 22-point home win over Creighton.  Joe Lunardi has them listed on the First 4 Out line, so they know they still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament.  That's why they won't have a letdown here off the Creighton win and despite the fact that they just beat Butler by 13 at home a few weeks ago.

Butler is 6-12 in Big East play this season with all six wins coming against teams that rank in the bottom half of the conference standings, and five of them coming against the bottom 3 teams in the Big East.

I like the fact that Xavier is rested playing just its 2nd game in 10 days with that 22-point win over Creighton being their lone game during this stretch.  I expect a big effort from the Musketeers tonight.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/UCF OVER 163.5

These are two dead nuts OVER teams that play at the fastest pace in the Big 12.  UCF ranks 13th in adjusted tempo while Oklahoma State ranks 20th.  So this game will see a ton of possessions.

We saw what happened when these teams got together just a few weeks ago with Oklahoma State winning 104-95 for 199 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

It's not like either team shot lights as neither team shot better than 47% from the field.  They combined to go 14-of-51 (27.5%) from 3-point range, so if anything there is room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* BYU/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 149

Iowa State is now fully healthy with Jones, Gilbert and Momcilovic back in the lineup.  The Cyclones rank 101st in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted offense despite being without these guys at various points this season.  They are a dangerous offensive team when fully healthy as this is the best offense of TJ Otzelberger era by far.

Speaking of elite offense, the BYU Cougars rank 12th in adjusted offense this season.  They rank 4th in effective FG percentage and 26th in 3-point percentage.  They are a very tough team to defend, and that has really been on display here down the stretch.

The Cougars are 6-0 SU in their last six games overall while scoring at least 73 points in all six games, including 91 or more three times.  The Cougars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 148 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games.  The only games that went under that total were two games against a dead nuts under team in WVU and Kansas State.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UTSA +9

The Memphis Tigers are coming off a huge 88-81 road win at UAB on Sunday as 1-point underdogs.  That win assured that they can now clinch the AAC title with either a win tonight or a home win over USF on Friday.  Knowing they have that game against USF at home in their back pocket, I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers.

UTSA is one of the most underrated teams in the AAC due to its poor 11-17 record this season.  But the Roadrunners are so much better than that record would indicate when you look at the results.  UTSA is 1-6 SU in its last seven games but the six losses all came by 7 points or fewer, so they have been very unlucky in close games.

UTSA took out its frustration with a 84-56 home win over Rice last time out.  Now the Roadrunners will treat this game against ranked Memphis as their 'national championship' game tonight.  An upset win here would make their season.

UTSA will be playing just its 2nd game in 9 days, while Memphis will be playing its 4th game in 10 days.  The Roadrunners have the rest and preparation advantage, and I have no doubt they will be the more motivated team tonight.  Bet UTSA Tuesday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami/Georgia Tech OVER 148.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 69th in adjusted offense but just 339th in adjusted defense.  The Hurricanes are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 149 points with Virginia Tech, 157 with Duke and 165 with North Carolina.

Georgia Tech is playing in some high-scoring games here down the stretch as well.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They rank 110th in adjusted tempo and like to play faster.  I don't expect much defense being played in this game with both teams with nothing to play for and looking ahead to the ACC Tournament.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UNC/VA Tech ESPNU No-Brainer on OVER 149.5

North Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 30th in adjusted tempo, 22nd in adjusted offense and 78th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 6-0 in Tar Heels last six games overall with 150 or more combined points in five of those six games with the lone exception being 147 against a dead nuts under team in Virginia.

Virginia Tech is 5-3 OVER in its last eight games overall.  The Hokies are coming off a 101-95 (OT) home win over Syracuse in which the game was tied 82-82 at the end of regulation for 164 combined points.  I expect another shootout tonight as this 149.5-point total is very low for a game involving UNC right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Wake Forest/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +20.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while continuing to cover massive numbers.  But this has also been their easiest stretch of the conference seasons with their last six wins coming against Stanford, Cal, Virginia, Miami, FSU and Illinois.

Now the Blue Devils have their toughest test since a 77-71 road loss at Clemson.  Wake Forest hung right with Duke at home on January 25th in their first meeting losing 63-56 as 11.5-point dogs.  Now they are 20.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

Wake Forest kept its NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 74-71 home win over Notre Dame last time out.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Demon Deacons after failing to cover each of their last three.

This is the rare season where the Demon Deacons have actually played their best basketball on the road.  They are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  They haven't lost a road game by more than 15 points all season.  They haven't lost any of their 29 games by more than 17 points all season, making for a 29-0 system backing the Demon Deacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.

This is their last ditch effort to make the NCAA Tournament with an upset of Duke.  They'll be 'all in' tonight, while Duke could be caught looking ahead to its regular season finale against rival UNC.  Bet Wake Forest Monday.

20* Memphis/UAB ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 159.5

Both Memphis and UAB are dead nuts OVER teams.  Memphis ranks 41st in adjusted tempo while UAB ranks 89th in adjusted tempo, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game which will lead to more points.  UAB is 36th in adjusted offense but just 276th in adjusted defense.

UAB had no answer for Memphis in their first meeting this season losing 100-77 on the road for 177 combined points.  The Blazers shot just 38.5% as a team in that game and still scored 77, so they are obviously due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 177, 193 and 185 combined points.  This total of 159.5 is very short for a game involving UAB and Memphis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Murray State/Belmont OVER 150

Belmont is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bruins rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 64th in adjusted offense and 278th in adjusted defense.  The Bruins are 19-10 OVER in all games and 11-3 OVER in home games.  They will control the tempo playing at home today.

Murray State is 13-4 OVER in road games this season.  They struggle to control the tempo on the road because they like to play slower.  They are coming off two shootouts losing 85-83 to Bradley and beating Indiana State 85-75.

Belmont beat Murray State 95-77 for 172 combined points in their first meeting this season.  So we have 22 points to work with in the rematch with this total of just 150.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland ML -135

No team is flying under the radar quite like the Portland Pilots here down the stretch.  The Pilots are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes outright upsets victories over Oregon State by 12 as 13.5-point dogs, Loyola-Marymount by 11 as 5-point dogs and Pacific by 8 as 3-point dogs.  The Pilots only lost by 13 at Saint Mary's as 23.5-point dogs as well.  They also beat Pepperdine by 20 twice.

ATS margin is a great way to tell just how undervalued a team is.  Well, the Pilots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 79.5 points in those five games, or an average of roughly 16 points per game.  They have covered all five games by at least 10.5 points.

The Pilots remain undervalued as short road favorites against a San Diego team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the last seed in the WCC Tournament.  The Toreros are 4-26 this season, including 0-16 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They lost by 10 at Portland in their first meeting this season, and it will be more of the same in the rematch.  Bet Portland on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Arizona/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State -6

Iowa State is going to be fully healthy for this game with Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) returning to the lineup.  Curtis Jones (16.9 PPG) returned to the lineup last game, and Milan Momcilovic (10.6 PPG) looks back to full strength after missing seven games in the middle of conference season.  Iowa State's only loss this season when fully healthy came at the buzzer against No. 1 Auburn on a neutral.

Off an upset loss at Oklahoma State and out for revenge on Arizona, I expect a huge effort from the Cyclones today.  They didn't lose a single home game all last year and they have lost just one home game this season.  The Cyclones are 33-1 SU in their last 34 home games.  They have arguably the best home-court advantage in the entire country, and it will be lit inside Hilton Coliseum for a Saturday night game.

Iowa State lost at Arizona in OT after Caleb Love hit a 65-footer at the buzzer to force OT.  The Cyclones have been in a bit of a spiral since, but it has been more due to injuries than to the nature of that defeat.  They avenge that loss in a big way with a blowout home win tonight.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati +15

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  Houston is coming off two very satisfying wins over Iowa State at home and Texas Tech on the road.  The win over the Red Raiders was extra sweet because they avenged an earlier home loss to them.

But those two wins come with a big asterisk.  Iowa State was without its top two scorers and the Cougars were in a dog fight with them eventually winning by 9 as 11.5-point closing favorites.  And then they lucked out against Texas Tech who was without 2 of its top 3 scorers as late scratches.  The Cougars took a ton of money and needed to pull away in the final seconds to win by 8.

Now let's look at what Houston has on deck.  They have Kansas on deck at home for Senior Night on Monday and could easily be looking ahead to that game.  They close the season at Baylor.  So this is the ultimate sandwich spot after facing ISU and Texas Tech with Kansas and Baylor on deck.  This is where the Cougars will be flat, which will make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 15-point spread.

Cincinnati is playing its best basketball of the season right now fighting hard to make the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Houston would stamp their ticket and they know it.  The Bearcats are 5-2 SU & 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won by 10 at UCF, by 18 at home over BYU, by 10 at home over Utah, by 12 at home over TCU and by 2 at home over Baylor.  They only lost by 11 at Iowa State as 11.5-point dogs and by 3 at WVU as 3-point dogs.

Five of the last six meetings between Cincinnati and Houston have been decided by 13 points or fewer.  This one will be much closer than expected.  I like the fact that both teams play slow so this game will see very few possessions.  Houston ranks 361st in adjusted tempo while Cincinnati ranks 294th.  Houston hasn't won any of its last 10 games by more than 15 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier ML -135

The Xavier Musketeers are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have been off since February 23rd, so they have had an entire week to rest and prepare to get revenge on Creighton.

Creighton beat Xavier 86-77 at home in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  Xavier shot 42.4% from the field while Creighton shot 52.6% from the field, so the Musketeers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Xavier is 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season.  Their only two losses came to St. John's by 10 and Marquette by 2.  They have won each of their last five home games including a victory over UConn.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the Big East.

Creighton is struggling down the stretch going 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Bluejays were upset at home by UConn and had lackluster home wins over Georgetown by 11 as 12.5-point favorites and DePaul by 10 as 16-point favorites.  They also lost at St. John's in their lone road game during this stretch.  Bet Xavier on the Money Line Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State ML -135

Colorado State is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  The Rams are 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and grossly undervalued.  All three losses came on the road to three of the top teams in the conference in SDSU, New Mexico and Utah State.

Now the Rams want revenge on the Aggies after losing 93-85 to them on the road in their first meeting this season.  Utah State shot 59.3% from the field while Colorado State shot just 45.5%.  The Aggies also shot 12-of-23 (52.2%) from 3-point range and still only won by 8.  It's safe to say the Rams are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch.

Utah State has been vulnerable on the road.  They have road losses to Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico and barely beat Wyoming by 4 and Fresno State by 8, which are two of the worst teams in the conference.  They are coming off a 17-point loss at Boise State.  Bet Colorado State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Auburn/Kentucky ABC No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5

Kentucky is close to back to full strength and a very dangerous team when that's the case.  Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) returned from a three-game absence to help lead the Wildcats to an 83-82 win at Oklahoma last time out.  He should be even stronger in this game.

Kentucky has been a wagon at home this season.  The Wildcats are 14-2 SU at home with impressive wins over Vanderbilt by 21, Tennessee by 11, South Carolina by 23, Texas A&M by 12 and Florida by 6.  They know they can play with Auburn at home.

Auburn has already clinched at least a share of the SEC title and will have a hard time being all that motivated over their final three games of the season because of it.  I think they are ripe for an upset today.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Auburn/Kentucky OVER 164.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team especially since they have a healthy Lamont Butler (12.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) back in the lineup after a three-game absence.  The Wildcats rank 36th in adjusted tempo, 6th in adjusted offense and just 62nd in adjusted defense.  They have scored at least 75 points in nine consecutive games and 82 or more in three straight.

Auburn also prefers to play faster ranking 124th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted offense.  They are a tough team to tame on offense, and that has been on display scoring at least 80 points in eight of their last nine games overall while going 7-2 OVER in those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina ML -115

South Carolina finally picked up its first SEC win of the season in a 84-69 home win over Texas.  Predictably, the Gamecocks fell flat on their faces last game losing by 30 at Missouri.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Gamecocks today.

It's time to 'sell high' on Arkansas, which has gone 5-3 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Razorbacks were getting by without Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) after he suffered a season-ending injury.  But now they are also without Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG), and they cannot afford to be without both of them.

South Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six SEC home games with that 15-point win over Texas, plus a 4-point loss to Ole Miss as 4-point dogs, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M as 5.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss in OT to Mississippi State as 7-point dogs, a 1-point loss to Florida as 11.5-point dogs and a 3-point loss to Auburn as 16.5-point dogs.  The Gamecocks have shown they can play with the top teams in the league at home, and now they actually take a big step down in class here against the Razorbacks and should take advantage.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Michigan Wolverines are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Amazingly, each of their last 8 wins have come by 4 points or fewer.  That includes their 49-46 win at Nebraska on Thursday.

Now the Wolverines will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  They play a Rutgers team that will only be playing its 2nd game in 8 days, which is a huge advantage in terms of rest and preparation.

Michigan beat Rutgers 66-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  But Rutgers didn't have its best player in Dylan Harper (19.4 PPG) due to injury in that game.  Harper returned to the lineup after that loss to Michigan for the past six games and has scored at least 20 points in four of them.

What makes that 3-point loss to Michigan even more impressive is the fact that Rutgers shot just 32.8% from the field while Michigan shot 47.8%.  The Scarlet Knights can only have positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch with Harper.  Bet Rutgers Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +11

The Boston College Eagles have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off consecutive blowout home wins over Georgia Tech by 15 and Virginia Tech by 18 and they aren't getting the respect they deserve right now.

We saw the Eagles recently take North Carolina to OT as 19.5-point road underdogs.  They only lost by 8 at NC State and by 9 at Syracuse.  The Eagles have only lost one of their last eight games by double-digits, and that was against Louisville, which is one of the top teams in the ACC.

Stanford is coming off a 66-61 home win over rival California.  That sets the Cardinal up for a letdown spot here.  Stanford is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Cardinal haven't won any of their last eight games by more than 9 points.  This number is clearly inflated.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Rice +14.5

Memphis is in 1st place in the American Athletic.  The Tigers just beat FAU last time out.  Now they have an even bigger game on deck against UAB, which is trailing Memphis by just one game for 1st place.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Tigers, who will be overlooking Rice tonight.

Rice nearly upset Memphis in a 86-83 home loss as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They only lost by 3 despite Memphis shooting 55% from the field and 11-of-21 (52.4%) from 3-point range.  I'm confident Memphis won't shoot that well again in the rematch.

Rice has quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and has been competitive in every game.  The Owls haven't lost any of their last 12 games by more than 11 points, and they have just one loss by double-digits in those 12 games.

Rice pulled the 74-71 upset at Memphis as identical 14.5-point dogs last season.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.  They always play to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway.  Bet Rice Wednesday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/North Dakota State OVER 169

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes are 20-5 OVER in all games including 10-3 OVER in all road/neutral games.  The books just can't set these South Dakota totals high enought.

North Dakota State is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bison are 18-9 OVER in all games this season, including 9-2 OVER In all home games.

North Dakota State beat South Dakota 103-77 for 180 combined points in their first meeting this season.  South Dakota only shot 43.5% from the floor and 23.8% from 3, so the Coyotes have room for improvement in the shooting department in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Gonzaga/Santa Clara WCC Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +6

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been overvalued all season.  They are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They were even 7-point home favorites over St. Mary's on Saturday and lost outright 74-67 as the Gaels completed the season sweep.

Now I think it's Santa Clara's turn to complete the season sweep after upsetting Gonzaga 103-99 on the road in their first meeting this season.  Now the Broncos get the Bulldogs at home.  I think the loss to St. Mary's is the type of loss that could beat Gonzaga twice as they are simply looking ahead to the WCC Tournament at this point.

The Broncos are grossly undervalued right now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming at St. Mary's by 9 as 12-point dogs.  They crushed all other comers beating Pacific by 34, Portland by 47, San Diego by 23, Loyola-Marymount by 15 and Washington State by 30.  Bet Santa Clara Tuesday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State +3

The San Jose State Spartans are 19-7 ATS this season as one of the best covering teams in the country.  They went 1-3 ATS in games in which leading scorer Josh Uduje (16.4 PPG) was either limited or out.

But Uduje returned to the lineup on Saturday and scored 29 points in a 82-73 road win at Wyoming.  Second-leading scorer Will McClendon (12.0 PPG) was also out the same games that Uduje was absent from.  There's a good chance he returns tonight.

UNLV leading scorer Dedan Thomas (15.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) got hurt two games ago in a 52-51 win at Fresno State as 8-point favorites.  Thomas sat out the Rebels' 61-53 home loss to Colorado State as 2-point dogs.  Thomas is out again tonight, and the Rebels are lost offensively without him.

San Jose State wants revenge from a 79-73 road loss at UNLV on January 4th.  Thomas led the Rebels with 17 points in that first matchup, so not having him in the rematch is a huge blow.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati -2

The Cincinnati Bearcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games with their only losses coming on the road to Iowa State and West Virginia.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home during this stretch beating BYU by 18, Utah by 10 and TCU by 12.

The Baylor Bears have gone the other direction.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming at home over West Virginia in overtime.  They lost by 11 at Houston, by 7 at home to Arizona and by 2 at Colorado as 6-point favorites.  That's a Colorado team with just two conference wins all season.

Cincinnati wants revenge from a 68-48 road loss early on in the Big 12 season at Baylor.  They shot 34.7% from the floor while Baylor shot 50%.  Josh Ojianwuna had 10 points and 7 rebounds in that matchup, but has since been lost for the season.  The Bears lack any inside defensive presence since losing him, which is a big reason for their struggles.

Baylor is just 2-8 SU in true road games this season.  Cincinnati is 11-4 SU in all home games.  Bet Cincinnati Tuesday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee/Robert Morris OVER 150

This is a rematch from a 81-79 road win by Robert Morris on January 19th.  Neither team shot the lights out as Robert Morris shot 44.3% from the floor while Milwaukee shot 50.9%.  I think these teams push 160 again in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* BYU/Arizona ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 152.5

The Arizona Wildcats profile as an OVER team due to ranking 43rd in adjusted tempo and 23rd in adjusted offense.  They will control the tempo playing at home against BYU, which ranks 201st in adjusted tempo.  But the Cougars are elite on offense ranking 13th in adjusted offense and 61st in adjusted defense as they are a bit undersized.

Arizona beat BYU 85-74 for 159 combined points on February 4th in heir first meeting this season.  The Wildcats shot 49.2% overall and 38.1% from 3-point range with a pretty average offensive output.  BYU has a lot of room for positive regression in the rematch after shooting 41.8% overall, 29.4% from 3-point range and 57.1% from the FT line.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Illinois/Duke OVER 152.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 16th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted offense.  The Ducks are 11-5-1 OVER in their last 17 games with 154 or more combined points in 15 of those 17 games.  This total of 152.5 is very low for a game involving Illinois right now.

The Fighting Illini have allowed at least 74 points in 10 consecutive games.  Now they must face a Duke team that ranks 2nd in the country in adjusted offense and 3rd in effective FG percentage.  The OVER is 5-2 in Duke's last seven games overall.  They have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their last 15 games overall and will no doubt top 80 in this one.

I like the fact that this is a non-conference game and these teams are not familiar with one another, and unfamiliarity favors offense and high scoring games.  I also like the fact that both teams are missing key big men which will force them to play more small ball and hurt them defensively.

Illinois is without F Morez Johnson Jr. (7.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG) while Duke is without F Maliq Brown (2.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG).  Those are two of the best defenders on their respective teams.  This game will also be played in Madison Square Garden so both offenses will be looking to put on a show.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/Omaha OVER 170.5

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 19-5 OVER in all games this season.  The Coyotes rank 2nd in adjusted tempo, 105th in adjusted offense and 346th in adjusted defense.

The Omaha Mavericks are also a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 168th in adjusted tempo, 108th in adjusted offense and 288th in adjusted defense.  The Mavericks are scoring 83.9 points per game in conference play while the Coyotes are scoring 84.5 points per game.

South Dakota beat Omaha 91-87 for 178 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 29th.  Neither team lit it up from 3 or from the FT line.  Omaha shot 7-of-21 (33.3%) from 3 and 14-of-20 (70%) from the FT line.  South Dakota shot 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3 and 19-of-31 (61.3%) from the FT line.  If anything they both have room for positive shooting regression in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida/LSU OVER 152.5

The Florida Gators have gone more small ball without F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG).  They haven't missed a beat offensively scoring at least 81 points in six consecutive games coming into this one.  The Gators rank 77th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season.

The LSU Tigers also like to push the tempo, ranking 116th in adjusted tempo this season.  They have been impressive offensively here down the stretch scoring at least 80 points in six of their last eight games overall.  I think Florida for sure tops 80 in this one, and LSU will at least get close to that number as we easily cash this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +9.5

Note: I put in this play before I found out the news that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I added the UNDER 133.5 since and like that play a lot more.  I no longer recommend a bet on Iowa State, but if you receive this play then bet on the UNDER 133.5 instead.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Houston UNDER 133.5

After releasing Iowa State +9.5, I found out that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I immediately added the UNDER 133.5 as I think that's a very strong play with those two out, and it will likely cancel out the loss on Iowa State.

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team ranking 361st in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted defense.  The Cougars allow 57.6 points per game on 38.3% shooting, including 51.6 points per game on 36.1% shooting at home.

Iowa State ranks 10th in adjusted defense.  The Cyclones allow 66.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting.  Without Gilbert and Jones, I don't expect the Cyclones to top 60 points.  But I think they can hold Houston below 70, especially with how slow the Cougars play.

The UNDER went 2-1 in three meetings last season with 110 and 110 combined points in both unders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE WEEK on North Dakota +4.5

I love the spot for North Dakota today.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat their biggest rivals in North Dakota State.  They are out for revenge after a 87-82 road loss to the Bison on January 25th in their first meeting this season.

This is a terrible spot for the North Dakota State.  The Bison just upset South Dakota State 77-68 as 6.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, avenging an earlier defeat to what they consider their biggest rivals.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat their 'little brother' in the Fighting Hawks again, and they only have two days in between games to prepare.  I expect the Bison to fall flat on their faces today and lose this game outright.

North Dakota has been impressive in two of its last three home games beating Oral Roberts 88-77 as 6-point favorites and upsetting South Dakota State 80-75 as 6.5-point dogs.  The Fighting Hawks have been competitive in every Summit League home game this season.  Keep in mind they only lost by 7 to Alabama as 25-point home dogs earlier this season as well.  Bet North Dakota Saturday.