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Jack Jones NCAA-F Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
09-05-15 Wisconsin v. Alabama -12 Top 17-35 Win 100 68 h 28 m Show

20* Wisconsin/Alabama ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -12

This one is pretty easy for me. The Alabama Crimson Tide are the supremely talented team, but I believe the questions surrounding the quarterback position have kept this line lower than it should be. When is the last time Alabama didn’t have good quarterback play? Not since Nick Saban has been here, and I’m sure whoever they go with will be more than good enough to lead them to a blowout win over the Badgers.

The questions for the Crimson Tide are on offense with just three returning starters and the loss of Amari Cooper, but the talent on this side of the ball is second to none. This is an offense that put up 36.9 points and 485 yards per game last season in the first year under coordinator Lane Kiffin. They will be explosive again with the new starters ready to step in and pick up where they left off.

But what really excites me about this Alabama team is the defense. It only gave up 18.4 points and 328 yards per game last year despite having only five starters back. Now, the Crimson Tide will have one of their best defenses of the Saban era with seven starters returning. Five of seven starters are back up front and will be prepared to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack. The Crimson Tide only gave up 102 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry last season.

This is a match-up tailor made for the Crimson Tide. The only offenses they have struggled with through the years are ones that spread you out and pass it all over the field. Wisconsin doesn’t have that ability. It has one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. Senior Joel Stave completed just 53.4 percent of his passes for 1,350 yards with a 9-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio last year. He is back as the starter, and the Crimson Tide aren’t going to have to worry about the Badgers' passing game one bit with Stave at the helm.

Yes, the Badgers always have an explosive running game and a great offensive line. That should be the case again even though they lose Melvin Gordon and three starters along the offensive line. I don’t expect them to be as dominant on the ground as they were last year with the losses, but they will be good. But Alabama stops the run as well as almost anyone, so again, it’s just a perfect match-up for the Crimson Tide.

I do believe Wisconsin will have a solid defense this year after giving up just 20.8 points and 294 yards per game last season. It will be tough to match those numbers with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top five tacklers, but this will be a good unit. I do not expect them to hold Alabama to less than 30 points, though, and getting to 30 points will be more than enough for the Crimson Tide to cover this 10.5-point spread. Their defense isn’t going to allow more than 14 points.

Wisconsin may be overvalued here due to beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl last year.  But that was an Auburn team that was disappointed to be playing in a lesser bowl after making the National Championship Game the year before.  A better indication of what type of team the Badgers were was in their 59-0 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  Alabama lost to Ohio State as well, but led 21-6 early and only lost 35-42 in the four-team playoff.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) who won 80% or more of their games last season, in non-conference games between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Alabama is simply on another level than Wisconsin with the way it has recruited over the last several years with the top classes in the country.  Wisconsin has talent, but it is adjusting to new systems under first-year head coach Paul Chryst.  Playing a team of Alabama's caliber is not a good way to break in new systems.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

09-05-15 Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3 Top 17-38 Win 100 74 h 35 m Show

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M -3

I am very high on the Texas A&M Aggies this season and believe they are primed for a run at the SEC West title. They come into this season undervalued because they have gone from 11, to 9 to 8 wins in Sumlin’s first three seasons. But last year was expected to be a down year because they lost Johnny Manziel, Mike Evans and a plethora of talent.

After having just 11 returning starters each of the last two seasons, the Aggies are now a more veteran bunch as they return 16 starters in 2015. They were forced to play a ton of freshmen last year, but now those players are a year older and ready to take that next step. After all, Sumlin continues to come away with one elite recruiting class after another. It’s going to pay off sooner rather than later.

The Aggies played a freshman QB in Kyle Allen last year, and two of their top four receivers were freshmen as well. All three return and this is going to be one of the best receiving corps in the country. The Aggies still managed 35.2 points and 455 yards per game last year despite their youth, and now they should have no problem returning to close to the 44 points per game they averaged when Manziel was running the show.

But what really has me excited about this team is the defense. The Aggies managed to lure former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis to oversee the play-calling duties. He steps into a great situation with eight returning starters on defense. This will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 28.1 points and 451 yards per game last year. Their best players was a freshman in Myles Garrett, who recorded 11.5 sacks and will be an even bigger beast as a sophomore.  He even played injured down the stretch last year, and teammates think so much of him that they have named him a captain.

I am certainly not down on the Arizona State Sun Devils this season with 16 returning starters as well, but I do believe they were very fortunate to win 10 games last year. They benefited from a +14 turnover differential, and despite going 6-3 in Pac-12 play, they were actually outgained by 15 yards per game against conference opponents last season.

I don’t expect their offense to be as good with the loss of QB Taylor Kelly and leading receiver Jaelen Strong (82 receptions, 1,165 yards, 10 TD). Their defense did not play all that well last season as they allowed 27.9 points and 417 yards per game. While they could be improved in that area, I don’t expect them to take as big of a leap forward as Texas A&M on this side of the ball. The Aggies have loads more talent defensively than the Sun Devils do when you look at the recruiting rankings.

Finally, Texas A&M will have a home-field advantage despite this game being played at a neutral site.  It's only about a 1.5-hour drive from College Station to Houston, which will be the site of this game.  Meanwhile, it's over 16 hours from Tempe, AZ to Houston.  It's safe to say that the Aggies will have a distinct advantage with the crowd.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

09-05-15 Bowling Green v. Tennessee -21 30-59 Win 100 66 h 55 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Tennessee -21

I’m about as big on Tennessee this season as anyone. In fact, I have picked them to win the SEC East with a 10-2 record. The reason is pretty simple. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back Top 5 recruiting classes, so the talent is going to deliver the goods with this team sooner rather than later.

We saw it at the end of last year. The Vols went 4-1 over their final five games once Josh Dobbs took over as their starting quarterback. They scored 45 or more points three times during that stretch, and finished it by averaging 33.0 points per game. Dobbs completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,206 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 469 yards and eight scores. His dual-threat ability really opened up this offense.

Now Dobbs is a junior and he’s among a loaded roster that returns 18 starters and some of the best talent in the entire SEC.  Jones was forced to play 23 true freshmen last season, and now those guys are all a year older.  With the way this team finished last season by making a bowl and blowing out Iowa in it, that's a definite positive sign of things to come.

The offense is only going to pick up where it left off last year with 10 returning starters.  After having no returning starters on the offensive line last year, the Vols now return four starters up front.  Each of their receivers who factored into the passing game last year are back, as is leading rusher Jalen Hurd (899 yards, 5 TD).

The defense will continue to build on the strides it made last year. The Vols only allowed 24.2 points per game last season with five starters back, and now they have eight starters back on defense and should come close to the 20 PPG range.  They are very excited about their defensive line, which returns sophomore DE Derek Barnett (72 tackles, 21.5 for loss, 10 sacks).  The linebacker corps returns senior SLB Curt Maggitt (11 sacks), giving the Vols two double-digit sack guys back from last year.

This is the perfect storm because I’m also down on Bowling Green. The Falcons won the MAC East title last year but took advantage of a very soft division. They wound up losing to Northern Illinois 51-17 in the MAC Title game, which is more indicative of the type of team this really was, rather than an eight-game winner.

The Falcons do return 10 starters on offense and should be fine there, but the defense is what concerns me. They gave up 33.5 points and 494 yards per game last season with only five starters back. Now they return five starters again and I don’t see the numbers improving. That’s because they lose each of their top four tacklers and arguably their best four players on this side of the football.

Bowling Green was overwhelmed in its two non-conference road games last season. It lost 31-59 at Western Kentucky and 17-68 at Wisconsin. I believe this 2015 Tennessee team is better than both of those squads, and it’s not really even close. I look for the Falcons to get blown out of the building in their first non-conference road game of 2015 as well.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

09-05-15 Penn State -6.5 v. Temple Top 10-27 Loss -110 64 h 58 m Show

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Penn State -6.5

James Franklin had his work cut out for him in his first season at Penn State. He was coming off back-to-back improbable 9-4 campaigns at Vanderbilt, which is no small feat. He did have 12 returning starters to work with last year and reduced sanctions, but it was still a tall task to ask for him to win in his first season.  The Nittany Lions wound up finishing 7-6 after beating Boston College 31-30 in the Pinstripe Bowl. They took national champion Ohio State into double-overtime, which shows what they are capable of.

Things are looking up for Penn State entering 2015. It has 15 returning starters, went 2-6 in Big Ten play last year despite only getting outgained by 7.5 yards per game, and now it goes from having 64 scholarship players in 2014 to 83 in 2015. That will dramatically improve their depth at all positions.  It was amazing to see the Penn State faithful fill Beaver Stadium during the probation period over the last three years. Now, those fans should be rewarded with some solid football under Franklin going forward.

The offense is in line for massive improvement after averaging just 20.6 points per game last season.  QB Christian Hackenberg is among eight returning starters on offense.  While Hackenberg had a down season last year, most experts believe he will be the first QB taken in the 2016 NFL Draft. 

The reason he struggled so much was because of inexperience along the offensive line.  But after having just one O-line starter back last year, the Nittany Lions return four starters and add in two very highly touted linemen.  The skill positions are in good hands as well with leading rusher Akeel Lynch (678 yards, 4.6/carry, 4 TD) and each of their top two receivers back in DaeSean Hamilton (82 receptions, 899 yards, 2 TD) and Geno Lewis (55, 751, 2 TD).

Penn State had one of the best defenses in the nation last year.  It allowed just 18.6 points and 279 yards per game.  With seven starters and five of its top six tacklers back on defense, this is going to be one of the top stop units in the country again.

Temple should be improved this season, but not as much as Penn State.  The Owls went 6-6 last year and return 19 starters.  But they went 4-4 in American Athletic play despite getting outgained by 69.5 yards per game.  Their defense is going to be solid again with 10 starters back, but the offense just doesn't have that much talent.

The Owls only managed 23.1 points per game last season.  Quarterback PJ Walker is experienced with two years as a starter under his belt, but he regressed last year and was simply forced to do too much.  He won't have much luck against this Penn State defense, which again, is one of the best in the country.

Penn State is 31-0 in its last 31 meetings with Temple with its last loss coming in 1941.  It beat Temple 30-13 at home last year while outgaining the Owls 366-248 for the game.  The Nittany Lions rushed for 254 yards in a turnover fest that saw both QB's combine to throw six interceptions.  A similar result can be expected in the 2015 meeting with a 17-point road victory for the Nittany Lions just about right.

Franklin is 15-5 ATS in non-conference games in all games he has coached.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents.  The talent gap between these teams is just enormous, but the spread isn't reflecting that, providing us with some nice value by laying the small number on the Nittany Lions.  Take Penn State Saturday.

09-04-15 Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74 56-21 Loss -110 43 h 28 m Show

15* Baylor/SMU ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 74

Last year, these teams played to a 45-0 game that was 29 points less than Friday’s posted total of 74. I can see a similar result, or something in the 52-17 range in favor of Baylor, which would still be UNDER the total. I simply believe that both teams are going to be better defensively this year.

The reason for Baylor fans to be excited is because this is going to be Art Briles’ best defense yet. While the offense gets all the hype, it’s the defense that has made the most strides in recent years. The Bears gave up 23.5 points and 360 yards per game in 2013, and 25.5 points and 382 yards per game in 2014. Now they return nine starters on defense, and I expect them to put up their best numbers of the Briles era in 2015.

The Bears have the best defensive line in the Big 12 with all four starters returning, led by athletic freak Shawn Oakman at defensive end, who earned 1st-team All-Big 12 honors last year. The linebacker corps does lose two starters, but the entire secondary returns intact. A strong defensive line and a strong secondary gives SMU little chance of being successful here.

I don’t expect Baylor to be as potent offensively this year. Yes, it does return nine starters on offense as well, but it loses QB Bryce Petty to the NFL. I’m not sold on Seth Russell as being anywhere near the passer that Petty was. Russell only completed 56.5 percent of his passes last year and did not impress me at all in the limited action he received in place of an injury Petty.

Simply put, SMU was horrible in all phases last year. It was especially poor on offense, putting up 11.1 points and 269 yards per game. It averaged just 100 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. I do expect it to be better under the guidance of first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson before coming here. But make no mistake, this SMU offense is still going to be one of the worst in the FBS.

One key factor here with backing the UNDER is that a blowout will lead to a very low-scoring second half. The same thing happened last year with Baylor jumping out to a 31-0 lead at half before calling off the dogs in the 45-0 win.  I expect Baylor to take its foot off the gas late in this game as well.

SMU will be lucky to score 10-14 points in this one against this superior Baylor defense. The Bears will simply run out the clock in the 4th quarter and get away from the up-tempo attack that will have gotten them a big lead. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

09-03-15 Michigan +5 v. Utah Top 17-24 Loss -110 21 h 3 m Show

20* Michigan/Utah 2015 CFB Season Opener on Michigan +5

Brady Hoke did not get the most out the talent he had on hand at Michigan.  The Wolverines went from 11 wins in his first season, to 8, 7 and 5 the next three years, which is simply unacceptable in Ann Arbor.  That's why they brought in Jim Harbaugh, which was the biggest offseason hire at any program.

Harbaugh had success as a quarterback here, and he's won everywhere he's gone as a head coach.  He went 29-6 at San Diego, 29-21 at Stanford, and 49-22-1 as the head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.  The guy is a proven winner who will get this program on the right track from Day 1.

Harbaugh steps into a great situation, too.  He inherits 15 returning starters and 50 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners.  Make no mistake about it, Harbaugh will get the most out of these talented players.

He has been known as an offensive guru, and he'll certainly improve an offense that put up just 20.9 points and 333 yards per game last year.  Eight starters are back on offense, and he adds in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock at QB, who started 25 games for the Hawkeyes over two seasons.  It's not been announced whether Rudock or Shane Morris will start for competitive advantage reasons, but my best guess is Rudock.

To Hoke's credit, he did coach up the defense very well as the Wolverines allowed 22 or fewer points and 322 or fewer yards per game in three of his four seasons.  This is a stop unit that returns seven starters after allowing just 311 yards per game last season.  This will once again be one of the top defenses in the country because of the returning experience and talent on hand.

Utah comes into the season way overvalued.  The Utes went 9-4 last season and finished with a winning record in Pac-12 play for the first time as a member of the conference.  But they were actually outgained by 84.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play despite their 5-4 record, which was the worst yardage differential in the entire conference.  All five of their Pac-12 wins came by 6 points or less as well.

Michigan is going to be highly motivated following a 10-26 home loss to the Utes last season.  It actually outgained Utah 308-286 for the game, but finished -3 in turnover differential.  It committed four turnovers in the game, which was its Achilles heel all season last year as it finished -16 in turnover differential.  Harbaugh will demand that his quarterbacks take better care of the football, and the defense is sure to create more turnovers this year.

The biggest advantage for the Wolverines is that they have a bunch of new systems in place.  They have a new offensive coordinator in Tim Drevno, a new defensive coordinator in D.J. Durkin, and a new special teams coordinator in John Baxter.  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham cannot use game film from last year to game plan for the Wolverines.  I love the element of surprise that Michigan will have coming into this one.  Plus, Michigan knows what Utah is going to do after playing the Utes last year.  Utah's systems have not changed.

"It's just a hodgepodge of five, six or seven places," Whittingham told The Detroit Free Press' Mark Snyder. "We form the best-guess scenario. And that's what an opener is anyway, a best-guess scenario, we never really know. Even when you [face] a returning staff, there's still changes that come in the offseason in different schematics. But when you have a new staff, anything really is in the realm of possibility. We think we have a general idea of what to expect. You try to expose your players to everything you think they might see in fall camp. Build a game plan to accommodate all the possibilities."

Whittingham is 6-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

01-12-15 Ohio State +7 v. Oregon Top 42-20 Win 100 146 h 26 m Show

20* Ohio State/Oregon Championship Game No-Brainer on Ohio State +7

While Oregon may be the better team, I just cannot foresee it blowing out Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played their two best games of the year coming into this one as Urban Meyer has his team hitting on all cylinders. They proved that their 59-0 beat down of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship was no fluke. After outgaining the Badgers by 300 total yards, the Buckeyes really dominated the Crimson Tide in the first round of the four-team playoff.

Alabama did score a late touchdown to get within 42-35, but that was as close as it would get. Statistically, this was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Buckeyes outgained the Crimson Tide 537-407 for the game, or by 130 total yards. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries in the win. He now has 450 rushing yards in his last two games and is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. Cardale Jones threw for 243 yards and a touchdown with one pick against Alabama as well.

Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to having gone a perfect 9-0 straight up and 9-0 against the spread in its last nine games overall. While that is impressive, it has the betting public quick to back the Ducks again. I believe these teams are much more evenly matched than this 7-point spread would indicate. It should be closer to a pick ‘em in my eyes, which means there is value in backing the dog.

Yes, Oregon beat Florida State handily 59-20, but that game was far from the blowout that the score shows. The Ducks only outgained the Seminoles by 111 total yards in the win. That’s a good margin, but not one that would warrant a 39-point blowout. The Seminoles simply gave the game away in the second half by committing five turnovers with four lost fumbles and an interception.

Florida State racked up 528 total yards on this suspect Oregon defense. The Ducks can score at will, but they clearly have the worse defense in this one. They are allowing an average of 421.9 yards per game on the season. Ohio State only gives up 22.1 points and 333.4 yards per game against teams that average 28.3 points and 396 yards per game, so it has been pretty elite defensively. I look for the Buckeyes to be the team that comes up with the more stops in this one, which will lead to a cover and possibly an outright win.

Ohio State has been pretty solid against the run, allowing an average of 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 188 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Stopping the run will be key because both teams love to run it. Oregon averages 242 rushing yards per game, while Ohio State puts up 262 yards per game on the ground. Oregon gives up 156 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry against teams that average 162 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it has been just mediocre against the run.

I have really been impressed with Ohio State’s ability to stop the run here of late against some very good rushing teams. The Buckeyes have held Michigan, Wisconsin and Alabama to a combined 120.7 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They limited Melvin Gordon and the Badgers to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries, Michigan to 121 yards on 38 carries, and Alabama to 170 yards on 34 carries.

Urban Meyer is 21-5 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Meyer is 15-4 ATS versus excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in all games he has coached. Ohio State is 31-11 ATS in its last 42 vs. excellent rushing teams that average at least 230 yards per game. The Buckeyes are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Pac-12 opponents. Ohio State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.  For what it's worth, the Buckeyes are 8-0 all-time against the Ducks.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game Monday.

01-03-15 East Carolina +7 v. Florida 20-28 Loss -100 23 h 31 m Show

15* ECU/Florida Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on East Carolina +7

The East Carolina Pirates are chomping at the bit at an opportunity to play a team from the SEC in the Birmingham Bowl and to prove that they are the real deal, just as they have against a few other Power 5 conference teams throughout the regular season. The Gators, meanwhile, are not happy to be here as they had much higher expectations coming into the year.

Due to underachieving for a second consecutive season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp was fired. The interim head coach will be defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will also be out of a job at season’s end. That’s because new head coach Jim McElwain has already hired Mississippi State’s Geoff Collins to replace Durkin as defensive coordinator next season. So, the Gators are really in a state of limbo here, and I don’t expect them to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to put away ECU by more than a touchdown.

The Gators face an East Carolina offense that can put up points in bunches. The Pirates rank 5th in the FBS with 532.8 yards per game and tied for 14th with an average of 37.2 points. Their passing game was second with 367.3 yards per game. They didn’t just put up these numbers against weak competition, either.

In three consecutive matchups against Power 5 conference programs South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, ECU averaged 581.3 yards and 40.3 points. It lost 33-23 at then-No. 21 South Carolina before a 28-21 win at then-No. 17 Virginia Tech and a 70-41 home blowout of North Carolina. Florida suffered a 23-20 overtime home loss to South Carolina on November 15 for the team’s only common opponent.

Shane Carden may be the most underrated quarterback in the entire country. He is completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,309 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, while also rushing for six scores on the season. The Pirates have three very good receivers in Justin Hardy (110 receptions, 1,334 yards, 9 TD), Cam Worthy (47, 886, 3 TD) and Isaiah Jones (75, 766, 5 TD) for Carden to get the ball to. Breon Allen (869 yards, 6.5/carry) and Chris Hairston (455 yards, 7.3/carry) are explosive in the running game as well.

Yes, the Gators have one of the better defenses in the country, but their offense is the reason why they aren’t going to put away the Pirates by a touchdown or more. Florida failed to crack 300 yards in five of 11 games this season. It ranked 11th in the SEC in total offense (370.2 yards/game), and its 12th-ranked passing attack (180.7 yards/game) never built any momentum in league play.

A big reason why the Pirates are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 163 yards per game this season is because they have actually been respectable defensively as well. They are giving up just 25.7 points per game and 369.7 yards per game this season. They did play the easier schedule than Florida, but what they did against those three Power 5 teams shows that they can play with anyone.

East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three years. They are coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. ECU is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

01-02-15 Iowa v. Tennessee -3.5 Top 28-45 Win 100 55 h 35 m Show

20* Iowa/Tennessee TaxSlayer Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) are extremely excited to be playing in this bowl game after going 5-7 each of the last three years and missing out. This will be their first bowl game since 2010, and they’ll be looking for their first win in a bowl since 2007. There’s no question that the Vols are going to be highly motivated because of it, and I look for them to get that elusive bowl win over Iowa this year.

Not many teams could benefit from bowl practice as much as this Tennessee squad. Head coach Butch Jones has put together two of the top recruiting classes in the country in his two years here, and this is still a very young team. In fact, the Vols had to break in five new starters along the offensive line, and four new starters along the defensive line this year. They did a tremendous job of getting to a bowl game with all of this youth.

What makes this bowl berth even more impressive is the fact that Tennessee played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Just playing in the SEC makes the schedule tough, but the Vols also had to play three more bowl teams out of conference. They beat Utah State 38-7 and Arkansas State 34-19, but lost at Oklahoma 10-34. They also drew two of the best teams from the SEC West in Alabama and Ole Miss.

To no surprise, this young Tennessee team got better as the season went on. In fact, it was sitting at 3-5 needing three wins in its final four games to get to a bowl, and that’s precisely what it did. The Vols beat South Carolina 45-42 on the road, Kentucky 50-16 at home, and Vanderbilt 24-17 on the road in the season finale to get in. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-29 to SEC East champ Missouri.

The Vols averaged 35 points per game over their final four games of the season. Their offense really took off once Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley at quarterback with five games to go. He even played well in a 20-34 home loss to Alabama, and then proceeded to step up his game the rest of the way. Dobbs finished the season completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 393 yards and six scores in just five games. It’s his dual-threat ability that has really helped out this offense.

Tennessee has also been very good on the other side of the football. It is giving up just 23.9 points, 359.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 30.1 points, 400 yards per game and 5.8 per play. So, the Vols are holding their opponents to 6.2 points, 40 yards and 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season. This is the sign of a really good defense and one that will be able to limit a weak Iowa offense.

The Hawkeyes had a schedule that was set up to make a run at the Big Ten West division title this season. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the Big Ten East, and they got to play both Maryland and Indiana from that division. They also got to host fellow West contenders Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Well, they managed to go just 4-4 within the Big Ten despite playing such a soft schedule.

Iowa went 1-4 against bowl teams this season, while Tennessee went 3-6 against bowl teams, which just shows you how much more difficult of a schedule the Volunteers played this year. Iowa lost to Nebraska (34-37) and Wisconsin (24-26) at home, while also falling at Minnesota (14-51) and at Maryland (31-38) on the road. Its only win over a bowl team was a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s six losses to bowl teams came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri. The Vols lost three of those six games by a combined 12 points.

Tennessee is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Vols are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games off two more more consecutive ATS losses. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Bet Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl Friday.

01-01-15 Ohio State v. Alabama -8.5 42-35 Loss -110 36 h 15 m Show

15* Ohio State/Alabama New Year's Day BAILOUT on Alabama -8.5

Alabama went through a gauntlet of a schedule this season to win the SEC in what is easily the best conference in the country. As a result, it is certainly battle-tested, and I would argue that it has played three to four teams this year that are better than Ohio State. Meanwhile, this will be by far the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced all season.

I personally do not believe the Buckeyes are one of the best four teams in the country. They simply benefited from playing a cake schedule, and Vegas seems to agree. There were 10 teams from the Big Ten that made bowl games this year, and all 10 of them are underdogs. That just goes to show you what Vegas thinks of the Big Ten this year. Ohio State may have won the conference, but that’s nothing compared to Alabama winning the SEC.

What has impressed me about Alabama the most this year is that it has had one of its best offenses in school history. It averages 37.1 points and 488.4 yards per game this season. Freshman Blake Sims has played like a seasoned veteran. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards and six scores.

If you look past Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, you find that its defense was not playing well at all in the four games previous. It had given up at least 24 points in four straight games, and an average of 28.3 points per game during this stretch. It has given up 24 or more points a whopping eight times this year in 13 games. There’s no question the Crimson Tide are going to have their way with this Ohio State defense.

I would argue that Alabama has the best defense in the country when you factor in strength of schedule. It ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game while ranking 11th in total defense at 312.1 yards per game. It is 2nd against the run at 88.4 yards per game and 2.8 per carry allowed. Alabama’s ability to stop the run is going to be the biggest reason as to why it wins and covers.

Ohio State relies very heavily on its rushing attack as it runs the ball 45 times per game for 261 yards compared to 27 pass attempts per game. It has to be an even more run-heavy team now that J.T. Barrett is out for this bowl game with an injury. Yes, backup Cardale Jones played well against Wisconsin, but he had the element of surprise with the Badgers. The Crimson Tide now have game tape on him and will certainly know what to expect. Jones won’t be nearly as effective against the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.

The Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Alabama is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games following three or more consecutive wins. The Crimson Tide are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Roll with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Thursday.

01-01-15 Florida State +8 v. Oregon Top 20-59 Loss -108 32 h 25 m Show

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8

There are many that believe the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) are not one of the best four teams in the country. They have won so many close games this season, seven by six points or less in fact, so their argument does have some weight. However, this team has played a much tougher schedule than they did a year ago, and I’m not so sure that this team isn’t as good as the one that won the national title last year.

There is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win games. Florida State has now won a whopping 29 straight games dating back over the past three seasons. Now, the Seminoles find themselves in the role of the underdog for the first time in the last two years. They are getting no respect from the books in this game, and Jimbo Fisher will be using this as serious motivation for his players. While they may ultimately have their winning streak come to an end against the Ducks, I don’t believe it will be by 9 points or more, which is what it would take for Oregon to cover this ridiculous 8-point spread.

Oregon comes in way overvalued due to not only winning eight straight games, but also covering the spread in eight straight. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Ducks. This has forced oddsmakers to set the line for this game higher than it should be. It’s usually a wise move to fade the public, and that’s precisely what I’ll recommend doing in this game Thursday.

Florida State, on the other hand, actually comes in undervalued despite its perfect 13-0 record this year. That’s because it has gone just 3-10 ATS in all games. It simply created expectations for itself after winning the national title that it could not live up to this year. The Seminoles have been favored in every game they have played this year, and most of the time by too many points. That’s why there has been so much value in going against them up to this point. That fade value is now all gone, and it’s time to jump back on them.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense that puts up 34.8 points, 434.8 yards and 6.4 yards per play against opponents that allow just 25.3 points, 360 yards and 5.3 per play. So, they are scoring 10 points per game and averaging 75 yards per game more than their opponents allow on the season. Jameis Winston just finds a way to get it done when the game is in the balance, and my money is on him to do so on the biggest of stages again in this one.

Oregon has put up some gaudy numbers offensively this year. However, you have to factor in who they have played before you get too excited about this offense. They have played defenses that allow 31.7 points and 432 yards per game on the season. That is a much softer slate than what the Seminoles have been up against this year. I would only give the Ducks a slight edge on offense.

Defensively, the edge has to go to the Seminoles, who are giving up 23.0 points and 378.3 yards per game. Oregon allows 413.8 yards per game this season as its stop unit simply has not been that good. I believe one of the biggest reasons the Seminoles have a chance to win this game is their run defense, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry. Unlike most other teams the Ducks face, the Seminoles actually have the athleticism and speed defensively to match up with Oregon’s offense.

Florida State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in. The Seminoles are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. It has won six straight bowl games coming in and has not lost a bowl game by double-digits since 2003.  Bet Florida State in the Rose Bowl Thursday.

01-01-15 Wisconsin v. Auburn -6.5 Top 34-31 Loss -107 27 h 15 m Show

20* Wisconsin/Auburn Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -6.5

I was one of the biggest Auburn haters coming into the season that you will find. They were extremely fortunate to win the SEC and make it to the national title game last year as they won a ridiculous amount of close games along the way and got every break to go in their favor. Their season win total was set at 9.5 and it was one of my favorite ‘under’ bets coming into the year.

I wasn’t so sure I was going to cash that bet until the Tigers lost three of their final four games to close out the season. It was also very profitable to fade this team all year against the spread as they wound up with just a 4-8 ATS record. So, my instinct was correct on them being overvalued this season. However, I now am reversing roles and looking to back them as they are undervalued coming into the bowl game.

Indeed, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven. They have burned the betting public time and time again, and now the public wants nothing to do with them. When this happens, you can find a lot of value in backing these teams, and I believe that to be the case in this game. There’s no way Auburn should be laying less than a touchdown to Wisconsin.

For starters, the Tigers play in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West. Had they played in any other division in America, they would have probably won that division. There are no easy outs in the SEC West, and Auburn found that out the hard way, losing four games to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

I actually faded Auburn in the Alabama game thinking that the Tigers were going to get rolled. While the Crimson Tide did end up covering in an 11-point home win as 10-point favorites, I never felt like they deserved to cover as they trailed for most of the game. Auburn actually racked up 630 total yards on that Alabama defense, outgaining the Crimson Tide by 91 total yards in the game. It was that performance that makes me know that the Tigers are still a very good team and one of the best in the country.

Wisconsin beat up on a very easy schedule this season coming from the Big Ten, which is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. It managed to avoid BOTH Ohio State and Michigan State from the other division, and that fact alone made it the favorites to win its division. It wasn’t easy as the Badgers had to beat Minnesota 34-24 at home in the season finale to get into the championship game.

It was in that championship game that the Badgers’ true colors showed. They were outplayed in every phase of the game by Ohio State, losing that game 59-0 while getting outgained by 300 total yards. The Badgers managed just 258 yards and gave up 558 yards. I believe that Auburn is a better team than Ohio State, and while I don’t expect the Tigers to win this game by 59, I do expect them to win by a touchdown or more with relative ease.

Auburn was very good on both sides of the football this year. It put up 35.8 points, 489.6 yards per game and 6.7 per play against teams that only gave up 23.5 points, 371 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Tigers gave up 26.1 points, 389.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that averaged 31.4 points, 417 yards per game and 5.9 per play.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s numbers look good on paper, but when you factor in the strength of opponents played, they no longer look that great. They played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their 10 wins coming against the likes of Western Illinois, Bowling Green, South Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Not one of those teams is near the caliber of two of the three teams they lost to in LSU and Ohio State.  It also lost to Northwestern 14-20.

Auburn is 9-1 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in its last game over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 15.5 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their last game. They are winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Take Auburn in the Outback Bowl Thursday.

12-31-14 Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6.5 Top 49-34 Loss -110 21 h 2 m Show

20* GA Tech/Mississippi State New Year's Eve No-Brainer on Mississippi State -6.5

I would be willing to argue that the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) are one of the top four teams in the country. Obviously, with two losses, they weren’t going to get into the four-team playoff over conference champions with one or fewer losses. However, finishing in second place in the toughest division in the country is no small feat. The Bulldogs had their chances to make the playoff after a 9-0 start, but they lost two of their final three games of the season.

I believe losing two of their final three games has the Bulldogs actually undervalued coming into this game. The betting public has simply forgotten about them. But when you look at those losses, you find that they are not bad at all. They only lost 20-25 at Alabama as 10-point underdogs, and 17-31 at Ole Miss as 2.5-point favorites. They actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 93 yards on the road, so that there shows that they can play with what everyone perceives as the best team in the country. Had either of those games against Alabama and Ole Miss been played in Starkville, they likely would have been different outcomes.

Mississippi State went 5-2 against bowl teams this season. It beat LSU (34-29) and South Alabama (35-3) on the road, while also topping Texas A&M (38-23), Auburn (38-23) and Arkansas (17-10) at home. This was obviously one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country, and I’d have to say that the Bulldogs handled themselves pretty well. They are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game because it seems like the national media has simply forgotten about them.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued. It has gone 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. It beat Georgia 30-24 on the road in the final week of the regular season. Well, the Bulldogs were deflated coming into that game after falling short of making the SEC Championship Game with Missouri’s win over Arkansas in the season finale. They also only lost 35-37 to Florida State after scoring a touchdown with only seconds remaining to make that score appear closer than it really was.

Mississippi State’s offense was nothing short of elite this season. It put up 37.2 points, 506.2 yards per game and 6.6 per play to rank 9th in the country in total offense. Its opposing defenses only gave up 27.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season. So, it outscored its opposing defenses’ season averages by 10 points per game, and outgained them by 108 yards per game. Georgia Tech’s defense allows 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 yards per play.

However, the reason I really love this matchup for the Bulldogs is their defense. They struggled against the pass this season, but they were elite against the run. The Bulldogs only allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. They give up 285 passing yards per game, but that’s not going to come into play here because Georgia Tech only averages 135 passing yards per game.

Plus, the Yellow Jackets are expected to be without leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (35 receptions, 715 yards, 7 TD), who accounted for roughly half of their receiving totals on the year. They average 334 rushing yards per game this season in their tripe-option. Well, give the Bulldogs over a month to prepare for it, and their dominant run defense will be up to the task.

Bowl games are a huge disadvantage for triple-option teams. Georgia Tech lost to another SEC team in Ole Miss 17-25 in the Music City Bowl last year. They were held to 298 total yards and gave up 477 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 179 yards in the loss. They only mustered 151 rushing yards on 49 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry against the Rebels last year.

The ACC has not shown very well in bowl games this postseason.  They are 3-5 in bowl games with their only wins coming from VA Tech over Cincinnati, NC State over UCF, and Clemson over Oklahoma.  Both Cincinnati and UCF play in the weak AAC, while Oklahoma did not show up against Clemson.  

What stands out to me is that the ACC is 0-2 against SEC teams as Miami lost to South Carolina 21-24, while Louisville was blown out by Georgia 37-14 last night.  Also, the SEC has been dominant in bowl games this year, going 4-1 up to this points.  This conference is just on another level than the rest, and that will be apparent in this game as well.

Dan Mullen is 11-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average at least 5.25 yards per carry as the coach of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  This trend just goes to show how much they struggle in bowl games because they run a triple-option, which is so easy to prepare for when you have extra time.  Bet Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

12-30-14 Notre Dame +7.5 v. LSU Top 31-28 Win 100 154 h 35 m Show

20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +7.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the bowl season way undervalued. That’s because they completely fell apart down the stretch after having their national title hopes crushed in a 27-31 loss at Florida State following their 6-0 start. The referees overturned what would have been a game-winning touchdown for the Fighting Irish in the closing seconds, and this team never really recovered from that moment-on.

They went on to beat Navy in a close one 49-39, but then lost each of their final four games to close out the season. They lost 31-55 at Arizona State, 40-43 to Northwestern, 28-31 to Louisville and 14-49 to USC. Obviously, the betting public sees these results and will be quick to fade the Fighting Irish in the bowl game. That has created a ton of line value for us to back them catching a full touchdown, and more in some places, against LSU.

Without question, Notre Dame (7-5) is still one of the most talented teams in the country. It simply self-destructed down the stretch in committing 12 turnovers in its final four games. The collapse was somewhat predictable after that loss to Florida State. You can bet that veteran quarterback Everett Golson is going to take it upon himself to get this team back up off the mat and to put forth the kind of performance that his talent warrants in the bowl game.

Also, I love Brian Kelly as a head coach for a bowl, because he is one of the best motivators in the country. Kelly will be pulling out all the stops on his players to try and get them ready to put their best foot forward against LSU. This is one final chance for the Irish to erase the sour taste out of their mouths from the four-game losing streak to close out the season. If they don’t, these players know it’s going to be a long offseason.

I certainly have to question the motivation of these LSU players coming into this bowl game. They are used to playing in big-time bowl games year in and year out, and they certainly won’t be all that excited to be playing in the Music City Bowl because of it. This is a team that had won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons. Their No. 23 ranking is their lowest heading into the bowl season that I can remember since Les Miles took over.

LSU (8-4) did have a propensity of playing in close games against most of its top competition this season. It had six games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Those six include wins over Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17), as well as losses to Alabama (13-20) and Mississippi State (29-34).  So, the Tigers went a fortunate 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less.

The reason the Tigers play in so many close games is because they have a solid defense that can keep them in games, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers are putting up just 27.6 points, 383.4 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that allow 26.4 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play. You can tell from these numbers that the Tigers are no more than an average offense.

There’s no question that the Fighting Irish have a huge edge on that side of the ball. They are scoring 33.0 points per game, averaging 444.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 26.0 points, 379 yards and 5.3 per play. Aside from the turnovers, Golson has really had a fine season. He is completing 60.1% of his passes for 3,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also rushing for 280 yards and eight scores.

I’ll gladly back Golson over LSU sophomore Anthony Jennings in this one. The Tigers have struggled at the quarterback position all season, and I would argue that Jennings is a worse starter than Brandon Harris, who had completed 55.6% of his passes for 452 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings is only completing 48.8% of his passes for 1,460 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven picks. He is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt compared to Harris’ 10.0 per attempt. Also, Jennings has rushed for only 284 yards while averaging 2.8 per carry without a touchdown.

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games when playing against a good team that wins between 60% and 75% of its games. LSU is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Bet Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl Tuesday.

Note - The above is my original analysis. I am writing this note on the morning of December 30th.  I just wanted to let you know that I still recommend Notre Dame +7.5 even though there is news that has come out recently that Golson will split time with Malik Zaire at QB in the bowl game.  I believe Brian Kelly made these plans just to keep things competitive in practice during this long bowl break.  It will be better for the team in the long haul.  It also gives LSU a lot more to prepare for, which is good strategy  by Kelly.  I still expect Golson to play most of this game.

12-29-14 West Virginia v. Texas A&M +3.5 Top 37-45 Win 100 129 h 35 m Show

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

12-27-14 Penn State +3 v. Boston College 31-30 Win 100 83 h 10 m Show

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

12-27-14 Miami (Fla) v. South Carolina +3.5 Top 21-24 Win 100 82 h 5 m Show

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

12-27-14 Virginia Tech +3 v. Cincinnati 33-17 Win 100 80 h 36 m Show

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

12-26-14 North Carolina State v. Central Florida -2 Top 34-27 Loss -110 212 h 7 m Show

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

12-24-14 Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky -3.5 48-49 Loss -106 156 h 7 m Show

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

12-23-14 Northern Illinois +10 v. Marshall Top 23-52 Loss -105 138 h 7 m Show

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

12-20-14 South Alabama -2.5 v. Bowling Green Top 28-33 Loss -107 69 h 22 m Show

20* Bowling Green/South Alabama Camellia Bowl BAILOUT on South Alabama -2.5

When deciding who to take in a bowl game, you certainly must consider what motivational factors will influence the game. I have no doubt that the South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) will be the more motivated team in this one. They are extremely happy to be here as this will be their first-ever bowl game.

Bowling Green (7-6, 5-3 MAC), meanwhile, got a worse bowl because it lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. If it would have won that game, it would be playing Conference USA Champion Marshall.  It is not nearly as excited to be here playing South Alabama when it could have played the 12-1 Thundering Herd instead.

You also have to consider the proximity of the schools to their bowl destination. Well, South Alabama is going to have a huge home-field advantage in this one considering it is being played in its home state in Montgomery, Alabama. So the Jaguars get check marks in both motivation and home-field advantage. Those two factors are enough to lay the 2.5 points with the Jaguars.

I’m not so sure that they aren’t the better team, too. They come into this game undervalued because they went 1-4 down the stretch after a 5-2 start. Well, a closer look at the five opponents they played tells the story. They played five other bowl eligible teams during this stretch in UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Carolina and Navy. They played three of those teams very tough, beating Texas State 24-20 at home, losing at Lafayette 9-19, and losing to Navy 40-42.

Bowling Green is playing its worst football of the season coming into this game. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost 20-27 at Toledo while getting outgained by 117 yards, it lost 24-41 at home to a bad Ball State team while getting outgained by 31 yards, and lost 17-51 to Northern Illinois while getting outgained by 265 yards. The Falcons just cannot be trusted to bring their best effort after that crushing loss to the Huskies in the MAC Title Game.

South Alabama has not been elite offensively this season, but it has rushed the ball fairly well. It averages 183 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It should find plenty of success moving the football on the ground against a Bowling Green defense that has been pitiful this year.

The Falcons give up 33.9 points and 499.2 yards per game against teams that only average 27.9 points and 415 yards per game. They have been atrocious against the run all season, allowing an average of 207 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. In their last three games, they gave up 325 rushing yards to Toledo, 199 to Ball State, and 334 to Northern Illinois.

There’s no question that the Jaguars have the better defense in this one, and that’s a big reason while I’ll side with them here. The Jaguars are giving up just 25.8 points, 390.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 30.5 points, 432 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Bowling Green only averages 29.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that give up 29.8 points per game and 5.8 per play, so its offense is nothing special.

South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge can be a tough matchup for any defense. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound senior is on the radar of many scouts with the prototypical build and athleticism that NFL teams covet. He completed only 51.9 percent of his passes in 10 games but threw 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final six.  He'll be looking to put on a show for the scouts in his final game.

The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Jaguars.  Take South Alabama in the Camellia Bowl Saturday.

12-20-14 Nevada v. UL-Lafayette +1 3-16 Win 100 59 h 8 m Show

15* Nevada/LA-Lafayette 2014 Bowl Opener on Louisiana-Lafayette +1

For starters, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns have a huge home-field advantage for this game as it will be played in their home state of Louisiana. In fact, these players and coaches are very familiar with this game as this will be the fourth consecutive time they have played in it. They are a perfect 3-0 in those three games. Obviously, it would be nice for these players to experience a different venue, but they haven’t looked at it that way. They will be fighting for their thousands of fans that show up to watch.

Lafayette (8-4) has really been playing some great football for quite some time now. It has gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. It went on the road and beat Texas State (34-10), LA-Monroe (34-17) and Troy (42-23) during this stretch, while also beating two other bowl teams in Arkansas State (55-40) and South Alabama (19-9) at home.

This is a veteran bunch that returned 17 starters from last year and was the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but Georgia Southern just didn’t lose a conference game all season, and the Rajin' Cajuns never had the chance to face the Eagles to settle it on the field. I just believe all of these senior starters aren’t going to allow this team to have a letdown even though this is the fourth consecutive time they’ll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.

It starts with senior quarterback Terrance Broadway, who leads an offense that is putting up 30.6 points and 417.9 yards per game this season. Broadway is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 646 yards and three scores. The one-two punch of Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD, 7.8/carry) and Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD, 4.6/carry) is tough to deal with.

I just have not been that impressed with Nevada (7-5, 4-4 MWC) this season. It went just 4-4 in a very weak Mountain West Conference and is not playing that great coming in. It has lost two of its last three games with its only win coming against 2-11 UNLV. It lost at home to Fresno State 20-40, getting outgained by 198 yards against a mediocre Bulldogs squad. It also lost at Air Force 38-45. Its seven wins this season have come against Southern Utah, Washington State, San Jose State, BYU, Hawaii, SDSU and UNLV.

Nevada’s defense is the reason it stands little chance in this game. It is giving up 28.2 points and 450.1 yards per game to rank 105th in the country in total defense. It hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. It is giving up 179 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. It is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their passes for 271 yards per game. Broadway and company will have a field day against this defense.

Nevada is a run-first team that averages 215 rushing yards per game compared to 197 passing yards. That actually makes this a great matchup for the Rajin’ Cajuns because they have been solid against the run, but not very good against the pass. They are allowing just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that average 168 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, they are an above-average defense against the run.

This game is going to come down to which team can stop the run because they both run it so frequently.  The edge obviously goes to the Rajin' Cajuns here as they give up just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, compared to the Wolf Pack, who give up 179 per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that average 167 per game and 4.3 per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. This trend goes right in line with my thinking. They haven’t been able to take advantage of poor passing defenses in the past, and they won’t in this one, either. Lafayette is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Nevada is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Mark Hudspeth is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 9-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 3-0 in bowl games as the coach of the Rajin' Cajuns.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.

12-13-14 Army v. Navy UNDER 59.5 Top 10-17 Win 100 117 h 32 m Show

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

12-06-14 Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech 37-35 Loss -110 101 h 8 m Show

15* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -4

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0) certainly created expectations from oddsmakers this season that they could not live up to after winning the BCS Championship last year. Despite going a perfect 12-0 straight up, they have gone a woeful 3-9 against the spread this season. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to fade them because of it. This is one of the lowest spreads we’ve had an opportunity to back Florida State at as a result. That’s why I believe there is value in backing the Seminoles as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Tech (10-2), meanwhile, comes into this game way overvalued due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes a win against Georgia in overtime last week in a game that I backed the Yellow Jackets as 12-point underdogs. That was a game where the Bulldogs were deflated after Missouri had won on Friday to punch its ticket into the SEC Championship, which prevented Georgia from playing in it. I simply believe the Yellow Jackets caught Georgia at the right time, and now they are getting too much respect from the books after that win.

All the Seminoles do is win. They extended their winning streak to 28 games with their 24-19 victory over Florida last week. I realize that they have six victories by 6 points or less this season, and that’s a big reason why I have faded them with regularity up to this point when they have been a big favorite. However, I have backed them a couple of their small spreads, and they have come through for me with a 42-31 win at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 30-26 win at Miami as a 2-point favorite. Basically, all they have to do is win this game and they’ll cover considering this is only a 4-point spread and it likely won't come into play.

What I like about this play as well is that Florida State has played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch and is more battle-tested. It has faced six straight tough games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida. Georgia Tech’s last six games have come against UNC, Pitt, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Georgia. It also faced Clemson without star QB Deshaun Watson, while FSU had to play Clemson with Watson and without Jameis Winston.

This is a very good matchup for the Seminoles because their strength defensively is stopping the run. They are giving up a respectable 146 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. Georgia Tech is a primary running team in the triple-option. Although it is an improved passing team this season, any threat it had of moving the football through the air ended against Georgia.

That’s because top receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a knee injury in the loss to Georgia and is doubtful to play Saturday. This is a bigger loss than I believe the oddsmakers are factoring in. Smelter leads the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (715) and receiving touchdowns (7). To compare, second place in all three categories is Darren Waller (16 receptions, 255 yards, 4 TD). That just shows you how important Smelter is to the offense.

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t exactly been dominant, either. It is giving up 24.1 points, 388.7 yards per game, and 6.1 yards per play. That is rather mediocre when you consider its opponents average 405 yards per game and 5.8 per play against all teams they have faced this year. The Yellow Jackets have simply won the time of possession this year, which has kept their suspect defense off the field for the majority of games.

That won’t happen against this high-powered FSU offense that averages 34.6 points and 430.3 yards per game on the year. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that opposing defenses that they’ve faced only giving up 25.3 points and 357 yards per game. The Seminoles are also averaging 6.3 yards per play against teams that give up only 5.2 yards per play.  This is still an elite offense under Winston.

Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 37-20 ATS in their last 57 games following two more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Florida State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

12-06-14 Missouri v. Alabama -14.5 Top 13-42 Win 100 97 h 9 m Show

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -14.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) are the best team in college football, period. They have been the most impressive team based on the schedule that they have played and the numbers that they have put up this season. Their only loss came at Ole Miss by a final of 17-23 back when the Rebels were healthy and one of the best teams in the country. After beating a tough Auburn team 55-44 last week, this game against Missouri will feel like a cake walk.

Alabama has arguably its best offense in school history. It is putting up 36.7 points and 487.1 yards per game on the season. Blake Sims has had a tremendous year at quarterback, and bounced back nicely from a slow start against Auburn last week to lead them back from a double-digit second half deficit. Sims is completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 275 yards and six scores.

While many consider the Crimson Tide to be down defensively this year, that simply has not been the case. They are giving up just 16.9 points and 312.0 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 29.5 points and 415 yards per game. They are holding their opponents to roughly 13 points and 103 yards per game less than their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense, and one that will shut down this suspect Missouri offense.

The Tigers, in my opinion, are the single-most overrated team in the entire country. There is no way they should be 10-2 right now when you consider they are only outgaining teams by an average of 34.4 yards per game.   To compare, Alabama outgains the opposition by 175.1 yards per game.  That's the sign of an elite team and one deserving of being in the SEC Championship.

The Tigers have simply been an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of opponent’s mistakes all year, but their luck runs out this week against the best team they have faced all season.  The second-best team they have played was easily Georgia, and they lost 34-0 to the Bulldogs at home on October 11th.

Missouri simply does not have the firepower offensively to do anything against this Alabama defense, which won’t allow it to keep up on the scoreboard. It ranks just 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 365.9 yards per game on the season. Maty Mauk is just an average quarterback who is completing 53.5 percent of his passes on the season. He will have one of the worst games of his career against this Alabama defense.

I look for this game to play out similarly to the 42-10 beat down the Crimson Tide put on the Tigers in their most recent meeting in 2012. They racked up 533 yards of offense while limiting the Tigers to just 129 total yards in the win. They outgained the Tigers by a whopping 404 total yards for the game. That contest was even played in Missouri, and this one will be in the Georgia Dome, where the Crimson Tide are used to being at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. Last year, Auburn beat Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship while outgaining the Tigers 677-534 for the game. This Alabama team is better than that Auburn team of a year ago, while this Missouri team isn’t as good as last year’s Tigers squad.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

12-06-14 Oklahoma State +21 v. Oklahoma 38-35 Win 100 50 h 50 m Show

15* Big 12 Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +21

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight will not play Saturday after missing the past two games with a head injury. He was knocked out of a 14-48 home loss to Baylor on November 8th and hasn’t returned since. The Sooners haven’t needed him in their last two games against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech (42-30 win) and Kansas (44-7 win), but they aren’t about to blow out Oklahoma State without Knight.

Backup Cody Thomas has been terrible in Knight’s place. He went 10-of-20 for 133 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against Texas Tech, and 3-of-13 for 39 yards without a touchdown or an interception against Kansas. The Sooners were able to get away with being one-dimensional against the Red Raiders and Jayhawks, but that won’t be the case against the Cowboys.  Thomas is completing just 41% of his passes on the season.

Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness this season has been its quarterback play. That’s why head coach Mike Gundy decided to make a switch prior to the Baylor game a couple weeks ago. Mason Rudolph played very well in a hostile atmosphere in Waco, throwing for 281 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 28-49 road loss as a 33-point underdog. Rudolph will get the start again Saturday, and I believe this offense will continue to perform better with him under center.  If they can stay within 21 points of Baylor on the road, which beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman, then they can stay within 21 of the Sooners on the road.

This Oklahoma defense has shown plenty of holes all season, especially in conference play. It is giving up 28.2 points and 414.5 yards per game against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s not the sign of an elite team as this defense has been overrated all season. The Sooners were the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and they have fallen flat on their faces. While the Sooners have nothing to play for at this point except perhaps a better bowl game, the Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State would consider its season a success if it were to beat Oklahoma to get bowl eligible. The Cowboys have played the Sooners very tough in recent years, and I expect that to continue in 2014. They beat the Sooners 44-10 at home in 2011, and each of their last three losses to the Sooners have come by 9 points or less, and by a combined 18 points total. They want revenge after the Sooners spoiled their bid to win the Big 12 with a 33-24 upset last year.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

12-05-14 Arizona v. Oregon -13.5 13-51 Win 100 78 h 9 m Show

15* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Oregon -13.5

The Oregon Ducks (11-1) want revenge on the Wildcats after losing their last two meetings. I believe this line would be much bigger had the Ducks won both of them, but since it’s not I feel we are getting a discount on them as less than two-touchdown favorites. They were favored by more than 20 points in their last two meetings with the Wildcats, which is a good indication that we are getting them at a discount here.

Oregon has been on a mission over the last two months since that 24-31 loss to the Wildcats. It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall, winning all seven games by 12 points or more, including five of those by 24 or more. It just cannot be stopped offensively right now as it has scored at least 42 points in all seven of those contests. If it gets to 42 in this game, that will be enough to win by two touchdowns or more.

The Ducks are putting up 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota came back for one more season to win a championship, and he's been the best leader this team could ask for. Mariota is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards with a ridiculous 36-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 636 yards and 11 scores while averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt this season.

Arizona has a strong offense as well, but the way that its defense has played all year gives it little chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Oregon squad. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 434.7 yards per game to rank 96th in the country in total defense. That’s not the stop unit of a championship-caliber team. The Wildcats have to feel fortunate just to make the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a win for them in itself.

Oregon has put up huge numbers on Arizona in all their recent meetings. It has put up at least 446 yards of total offense in each of the last eight meetings with Arizona, including 500-plus four times. I just believe that the Wildcats can do nothing to slow down this Oregon offense, and the only way the Ducks don’t cover is if they beat themselves like they did in the last two meetings. They aren’t likely to beat themselves a third straight time, especially not with the way they are playing right now.

Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. The Ducks are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Oregon is 12-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass. Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.  Take Oregon Friday.

12-05-14 Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +7 Top 51-17 Loss -115 76 h 9 m Show

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green +7

If this game was played last week, I have no doubt that this line would be a lot smaller than it is right now. Northern Illinois (10-2) is coming off a huge 31-21 win at Western Michigan as an 8-point underdog, while Bowling Green(7-5)  is coming off a 41-24 home loss to Ball State despite being a 10-point favorite. Before you are quick to judge those results, you must understand the mental make-up of the teams going into them.

Northern Illinois knew that a win would get it in the MAC Championship. Western Michigan knew that a win would not get it in because it had lost to Toledo earlier in the season, so the Rockets held the tiebreaker. Toledo was a 23-point favorite against Eastern Michigan last Friday and rolled to victory. So, the Broncos essentially knew that they would not be playing in the MAC Championship even with a win because Toledo wasn’t going to lose to EMU.

Bowling Green already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship a couple weeks ago. It knew that a loss to Ball State would have no bearing on whether or not it would be playing in the title game for a second straight year, and it simply did not show up last week. Ball State rolled to a 17-point victory that was of no consequence to the Falcons. The betting public is going to be quick to judge those results more than they should.

Now, we are getting the Falcons at a great value as 7-point underdogs in this game. I’m more interested in how this team played when it had something to play for, and a closer look at those results shows that this is a quality team. The Falcons went 5-1 during a six-game stretch from the end of September to early November. Their only loss was to Western Michigan, which is arguably the best team in the MAC. They had three wins by double-digits during that stretch, including a 27-10 win at Akron and a 31-13 win at Ohio.

This Bowling Green defense was really improving prior to the Ball State game, which again, we cannot count. It had allowed less than 400 yards in four consecutive games prior to Ball State. That includes just 388 total yards to a high-powered Toledo offense that averages 486.2 on the season. I really do believe the Falcons have the better defense in this one and are fully capable of slowing down this NIU offense.

Northern Illinois’ biggest weakness is its stop unit. It really hasn’t done a whole lot to stop anyone all season. It is giving up 24.2 points and 390.9 yards per game against teams that have averaged 22.8 points and 364 yards per game. So, it is allowing 1.4 points and 27 yards per game more than opposing offenses average on the season.

The Huskies will have their hands full against a Bowling Green offense that has really been impressive this year. It is putting up 30.8 points and 441.6 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 181 yards on the ground and 261 through the air. NIU averages 30.6 points and 433.3 yards per game, so I’d argue that Bowling Green actually has the better offense because it has played the tougher schedule this year.

In the MAC Championship Game last year, Bowling Green rolled to a 47-27 victory over NIU. It simply did whatever it wanted to against a weak NIU defense, amassing 574 total yards in the win. I know the Huskies will be out for revenge, but that’s not a big enough factor to be too concerned. The Huskies even have a worse defense this year than they did last year, and their offense isn’t nearly as strong with the loss of QB Jordan Lynch.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOWLING GREEN) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1992. Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Bowling Green is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Bet Bowling Green Friday.

12-04-14 Central Florida +6.5 v. East Carolina 32-30 Win 100 53 h 39 m Show

15* UCF/East Carolina AAC Thursday No-Brainer on UCF +6.5

The UCF Knights (8-3, 6-1 AAC) have a chance to clinch a share of the American Athletic Conference Title with a win Thursday. They sit at 6-1 within the conference, tied with Cincinnati and only one game behind Memphis (7-1). ECU (5-2 AAC) already has its fate sealed as it will not be able to win the conference. That motivational edge certainly favors the Knights and is a big factor as to why I’ll be siding with them Thursday night as 6.5-point road underdogs.

UCF has won eight of its last nine games overall coming into this one with each of its last four wins all combing by 16 points or more. The only exception was a fluke 29-37 loss at Connecticut back on November 1st in a game they dominated, but ultimately lost due to committing four turnovers. They outgained the Huskies by 102 yards in that contest and should have won.

In fact, the Knights have outgained each of their last five opponents by at least 95 yards. They outgained SMU by 374 yards in a 53-7 win, outgained Tulsa by 305 yards in a 31-7 win, and outgained Temple by 284 yards in a 34-14 win in their three most impressive performances during this stretch. They also outgained South Florida by 95 yards last week in a 16-0 road victory.

If you’re a fan of defense like I am, then you’ll love what you’ve seen from this UCF stop unit this season. The Knights are giving up just 16.8 points and 271.2 yards per game on the season, ranking 4th in the country in total defense. That includes 15.0 points and 258.9 yards per game in conference play. In their last three games, the Knights have allowed a measly 4.7 points and 172.3 yards per game. They have what it takes on this side of the ball to slow down this high-powered ECU offense.

ECU isn’t nearly as dominant defensively as UCF. It is giving up an average of 25.1 points and 364.9 yards per game on the season against teams who only average 21.9 points and 343 yards per game. It has allowed 30.7 points and 433.0 yards per game in its last three coming in. That includes 54 points and 586 yards to Cincinnati, and 32 points and 388 total yards to Tulsa.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) – off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. ECU is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  ECU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. The Pirates are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. ECU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.

UCF is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in Thursday games over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Thursday.

11-29-14 Utah State +10 v. Boise State Top 19-50 Loss -105 15 h 60 m Show

20* Utah State/Boise State Mountain West BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos will be playing for the right to go to the Mountain West Championship Game today.  The only reason that is possible is because Colorado State lost to Air Force yesterday, giving the Aggies hope.

Had the Rams won that game against Air Force, they would have had the tiebreaker over Utah State, and then the Aggies would have had nothing to play for but pride today.  I believe that win by the Falcons will be huge for Utah State's mental state heading into this one as they'll be charged up knowing they have a chance to get back to the MWC Title Game for a second straight year.

Utah State hasn't lost since that 13-16 road loss to Colorado State.  It has gone 5-0 since with all five victories coming by seven points or more, including four by 14 points or more.  I just really like the way that this team has been playing and the fact that it has one of the most underrated defenses in the country.

Indeed, the Aggies rank 1st in the Mountain West in scoring and total defense, giving up just 18.3 points and 351.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.9 points and 349.7 yards per game in conference play.  I will take good defense over good offense any day as Boise State ranks 1st in the conference in total offense.

However, it's not like the Aggies have been lacking on offense, either.  They are putting up 28.1 points per game on the season and 29.3 points per game in conference play.  This offense has been much sharper since stud freshman Kent Myers took over as the starting quarterback. 

He is completing a ridiculous 73.4 percent of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt.  Myers has also been their best dual-threat quarterback this season as he has added 192 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 6.2 per carry.  Most teams couldn't perform well when they were down to their fourth-string QB, but Myers has really been a diamond in the rough for the Aggies.

While Boise State has been great offensively this season, it has been horrible on the other side of the football.  It is giving up 28.4 points per game on the season, including a ridiculous 31.0 points per game in conference play.  That's really bad when you consider the Mountain West just isn't that good.

Utah State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game.  The Aggies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Utah State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS int he last seven meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

11-29-14 Auburn v. Alabama -9 Top 44-55 Win 100 12 h 44 m Show

20* Auburn/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -9

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) have been waiting for this game since last year. They want revenge on the Tigers from that crushing 34-28 defeat that sent Auburn to the SEC Championship. Now, a spot in the title game is at stake for the Crimson Tide this week, while the Tigers have no shot of playing in it. So, from a motivational perspective, there’s no question that the Crimson Tide have the edge heading into this one.

More importantly, Alabama is the better team. In fact, I believe it is the most complete team in the country. This is easily one of the best offenses in school history. The Crimson Tide are averaging 35.0 points and 482.4 yards per game against teams that give up 25.4 points and 393 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide have been dominant again this year. They are allowing just 14.5 points and 283.1 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 411 yards per game.

Auburn once again has an explosive offense that puts up 35.1 points and 476.8 yards per game. However, this is a terrible matchup for them because they rely primarily on the run to move the football. Alabama only gives up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Alabama’s ability to stop the run will be the difference in this one.

While the Tigers have a decent defense, it is nowhere near up to the caliber of Alabama’s stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 23.5 points and 375.6 yards per game on the season. They have given up at least 31 points five times this year.  They allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina, 34 to Georgia and 31 to Ole Miss. They lost three of those five games. Alabama is sure to hang a big number on this vulnerable Auburn defense as well.

Sure, Auburn has won two of the last six meetings in this series, but they shouldn’t have won either of those as they needed some late-game heroics to do so. Alabama outgained Auburn by 102 yards last year, by 320 yards in 2012, by 257 yards in 2011, by 119 yards in 2010, was outgained by 41 yards in 2009, and outgained the Tigers by 242 yards in 2008. As you can see, this really has been a one-sided series over the past six years when you take a closer look at the box scores.

Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off two home no-covers where it won straight up as a favorite. That’s another reason why this line is smaller than it should be because the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Alabama is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 33.3 points per game.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

11-29-14 Mississippi State -2.5 v. Ole Miss Top 17-31 Loss -111 8 h 15 m Show

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl Beat Down on Mississippi State -2.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) need one more win to likely get them into the college football playoff. I believe they get that victory Saturday in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3). Getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly a gift from the oddsmakers in this one. These teams are headed in opposite directions right now.

Mississippi State has arguably been the best team in the SEC all season. Its only loss came on the road by a final of 20-25 at Alabama as a 10-point underdog. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings, so going into Tuscaloosa and only losing by five points shows that the Bulldogs can play with anyone. They have also beaten the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU among others within the SEC.

This is really more of a fade against Ole Miss than anything. The Rebels have had their dreams of winning the SEC crushed in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. They fell 7-10 at LSU, 31-35 at home against Auburn, and then appeared to quit in a 0-30 loss at Arkansas last week. I know this is a rivalry game, but I really do not like the mental state of the Rebels at all heading into this game. They just don’t have nearly as much to play for as the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss’ downfall coincided with the loss of its two best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche suffered a broken ankle in late October and is out for the season. Wide receiver Laquan Treadwell suffered a broken leg in the closing seconds against Auburn and is also out for the rest of the year. Nkemdiche was their enforcer at middle linebacker, while Treadweall was their top playmaker on offense at receiver.

Both teams feature solid defenses as the Bulldogs are giving up 18.4 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 13.5 per game. The difference in this game is going to be Mississippi State’s offense, which has been unstoppable in averaging 39.0 points and 511.7 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 248 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Ole Miss only averages 435.5 yards per game and has been much less explosive here of late. It is averaging just 12.7 points per game in its last three SEC games, and was shut out in its first SEC game without Treadwell against Arkansas.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) – off one or more consecutive unders, good offensive team – scoring 31 or more points/game are 72-28 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Ole Miss is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 November games.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

11-29-14 Florida +7.5 v. Florida State 19-24 Win 100 8 h 14 m Show

15* Florida/Florida State Rivalry Play on Florida +7.5

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) have been overvalued all season after winning the BCS Championship last year. They created expectations for themselves that they simply could not live up to, especially from the betting public and the oddsmakers. Despite going 11-0 to this point, they have gone a woeful 3-8 against the spread. They have won five games this season by six points or less and are extremely fortunate to remain undefeated.

Asking the Seminoles to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread against rival Florida is asking too much. They have beaten worse teams by less. Their five wins by six points or less have come against Oklahoma State (37-31), Clemson (23-17), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26) and Boston College (20-17).

They also failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel (37-12), as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State (56-41), as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse (38-20), and as a 21-point favorite against Virginia (34-20). As you can see, several teams that aren’t as good as Florida have played the Seminoles very tough this season.

Yes, the Gators have lost four games this season, but those four losses have come against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Missouri and South Carolina. They were only blown out twice as the 21-42 loss at Alabama was a legitimate blowout, but the 13-42 loss to Missouri wasn’t. They actually held the Tigers to just 119 total yards but committed six turnovers and gave up several non-offensive touchdowns in a fluke blowout. Their losses to LSU (27-30) and South Carolina (20-23) came by three points each.

Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Treon Harris as the starting quarterback. He returned as a starter against Georgia and led Florida to a 38-20 road victory. They also beat Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road, lost to South Carolina in overtime, and beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3.

Harris has thrown six touchdowns against one interception while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 250 yards and three scores in limited action.  To compare, Jeff Driskel only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt before being replaced to Harris.  Both the passing game and the running game have gotten a boost with Harris under center.  The Gators have rushed for 214-plus yards in three of their last four games and will use Boston College's blueprint from last week to run the ball and control the time of possession.

While Harris certainly has given the offense a huge boost, the biggest reason the Gators have a chance to not only cover but win this game outright is their defense. Will Muschamp has an elite stop unit that is giving up just 20.9 points and 308.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Florida State has been more vulnerable on that side of the ball, allowing 379.2 yards per game to rank 55th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team has won each of the last three meetings while going 3-0 ATS. Florida won its last trip to Tallahassee by a final of 37-26 as a 7-point underdog in 2012. It has actually gone 4-1 straight up in its last five road games against Florida State. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are 3-1 straight up on the road this season with their only loss coming at Alabama.  Take Florida Saturday.

11-29-14 Michigan State v. Penn State +14 34-10 Loss -103 7 h 28 m Show

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +14

This is Senior Night for Penn State, and I look for it to put forth one of its best performances of the season today at home against Michigan State.  Asking the Spartans to win by more than two touchdowns to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

While Penn State is just 6-5 this season, I would argue that this team is better than its record would indicate.  It has simply been unfortunate in close games.  Indeed, four of its five losses have come by 7 points or less, and by a combined 15 points..

The one close loss that really stands out that shows the Nittany Lions can play with the Buckeyes is the 24-31 home loss to Ohio State.  They lost that game in overtime and held the Buckeyes to just 293 total yards.  That's the same Ohio State team that went into Michigan State and won 49-37 as the Spartans allowed 568 total yards in the loss.

What gives Penn State a chance to hang around in this game is its superb defense.  It is only giving up 16.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 267.2 yards per game.  It has allowed 20 or fewer points in eight of its 11 games this season, and if it does that against Michigan State, it will have no problem covering this spread.

Penn State has played Michigan State very tough in recent years.  Indeed, it is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Spartans.  Its two losses during this stretch came by 6 and 4 points, so you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that the Nittany Lions lost to the Spartans by more than this spread of 14 points.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following one or more consecutive unders.  It is winning by 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games following a road loss.  Penn State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Penn State.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

11-29-14 Georgia Tech +12 v. Georgia 30-24 Win 100 5 h 44 m Show

15* Georgia Tech/Georgia Rivalry Play on Georgia Tech +12

The Georgia Bulldogs are deflated right now.  They needed Missouri to lose to Arkansas yesterday to earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game.  The Tigers came from behind and won, meaning they will be going to the SEC Championship for a second straight year, while the Bulldogs will be watching from home.

While this game against Georgia Tech was going to have no bearing on Georgia's SEC Championship hopes, it's certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs won't be in a good state of mind because of yesterday's result by Missouri.

Georgia Tech (9-2), meanwhile, is in a great state of mind knowing that it will be playing Florida State in the ACC Championship next week.  It also wants revenge from a tough 34-41 (OT) loss to Georgia last year.  It blew a 20-7 halftime lead in that game and will certainly be licking its chops at a chance at revenge.

The Yellow Jackets also come into this game as the fresher team.  They are coming off their bye week after dismantling Clemson 28-6 back on November 15th.  They have been playing some tremendous football of late that will give them the confidence they need to try and pull off the upset in this one.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with all four wins coming by 22 or more points.  They won at Pitt 56-28 as a 4-point underdog, beat Virginia 35-10 as a 4-point home favorite, beat NC State 56-23 as a 3-point road favorite, and topped Clemson 28-6 as a 2-point home dog.  It's also worth noting that both of Georgia Tech's losses this year came by 6 points or less.

I would argue that this is the best team that Paul Johnson has had at Georgia Tech, and that's saying a lot considering this team has won the ACC Championship in his time here.  The biggest reason for that is the play of quarterback Justin Thomas.

Thomas leads an offense that puts up 37.8 points and 469.6 yards per game this season.  He leads the team in rushing (827 yards, 5 TD, 5.4/carry), but the difference has been his passing.  He has thrown for 1,396 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

This Georgia Tech defense has really stepped up its play this year as well, allowing a respectable 24.1 points per game on the year.  They have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets allowed just 6 points and 190 total yards to Clemson last time out.

Georgia has been extremely vulnerable against the run here of late, allowing an average of 243.0 yards per game in their last four games.  They gave up a whopping 418 yards to Florida in a 20-38 loss.  This Georgia Tech triple-option attack should have plenty of success, just as it did last year when it racked up 34 points and 495 total yards against Georgia.

Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 75%.  The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Georgia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

11-29-14 Kentucky +13 v. Louisville 40-44 Win 100 5 h 44 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

I just love Kentucky's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It sits at 5-6 on the season, so it will be motivated for a win to get to its first bowl game since 2010.  It also comes in on two weeks' rest after playing its last game on November 15th against Tennessee.

I hate Louisville's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It is coming off a taxing 31-28 win at Notre Dame last week that took a lot out of the Cardinals emotionally.  That makes this a huge letdown spot for them off such a big win in South Bend.

Kentucky absolutely cannot wait to get away from the tough SEC slate they've been up against during their current five-game losing streak.  Their last five games have come against LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee with three of those on the road.  This bye week could not have come at a better time after that gauntlet.

This is the best Kentucky team that we've seen in years.  A big reason for that is the play of former Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles at quarterback.  He leads a Kentucky offense that is putting up 28.2 points per game this season.  Towles is completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 293 yards and six scores.

The Wildcats also will be motivated for revenge following three consecutive losses to the Cardinals in this series.  They have only lost to Louisville by more than 13 points twice in their last seven meetings, and even those were competitive as they lost by 14 points last year and by 18 in 2012.  This is easily the best Kentucky team that Louisville has faced since at least 2010.  The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

"We've got a lot to play for," Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. "Guys are excited and energized. It's been a good, tough stretch against some quality teams."

"I think a win this weekend would do an awful lot for these players," Stoops said. "I think they deserve it. They put in the work. They've put in the time, they care and they deserve to win and have that taste of success and that taste of a bowl game."

Plays on a road team (KENTUCKY) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS after outrushing its last opponents by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

11-28-14 Western Kentucky +24 v. Marshall Top 67-66 Win 100 5 h 48 m Show

20* WKU/Marshall Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky +24

I faded Marshall with success last week as they only beat UAB 23-18 on the road as an 18-point favorite.  I will be fading them for many of the same reasons as last week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 11-0 straight up and 7-3 ATS records on the season.

The betting public has been quick to back Marshall because they have covered so many big spreads this year.  But, they have played such a soft schedule up to this point that it's almost a joke.  Their last game against UAB was the toughest opponent that they have played up to this point, and they barely won.

The other 10 wins have come against Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio, Akron, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, FIU, FAU, Southern Miss and Rice.  If that's not a cupcake schedule, I don't know what is.  Now, like UAB, they play another opponent capable of putting up a fight this week.

Western Kentucky (6-5) comes in playing its best football of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last three games overall.  It beat UTEP 35-27 to start the streak, dominated Army 52-24 while outgaining the Black Knights by 228 yards, and dominated UTSA 45-7 while outgaining the Roadrunners by 232 yards.

The thing you have to like about the Hilltoppers is that they can score with anyone, so they are capable of keeping up with the Thundering Herd.  They average a whopping 41.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the country in total offense at 508.1 yards per game.  Marshall averages 44.9 points per game to compare.

Plus, you have to consider that the Hilltoppers have played the tougher schedule.  Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has been brilliant, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,853 yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions this year.  He would love nothing more than to knock off Marshall in the final regular season game of his career.

However, the Hilltoppers are no one-trick pony.  They have proven fully capable of moving the ball on the ground behind the outstanding play of running back Leon Allen, who has rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Anthony Wales (423 yards, 4 TD, 6.2/carry) has been a nice compliment to him.

Western Kentucky is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Hilltoppers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Western Kentucky Friday.

11-28-14 Nebraska v. Iowa 37-34 Loss -110 5 h 48 m Show

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers both blew their chances at getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with losses last week.  Now, they both look to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing losses and to finish the regular season with one final victory.

I like Iowa's chances of getting up off the mat a lot more because its loss wasn't as crushing because it was expected to lose, while Nebraska was expected to win.  Nebraska lost at home to Minnesota 24-28 as an 8.5-point favorite, while Iowa lost at home to Wisconsin 24-26 as an 8.5-point underdog.

The Cornhuskers were coming off a 24-59 loss at Wisconsin the previous week, and I don't believe they will care a whole lot about winning this final game of the season.  Iowa has showed some fight and I like it's mental state much better, especially considering this is Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.  That will be motivation enough to get back up off the mat.

Iowa has played very well at home in Big Ten play.  It has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home within the conference with blowout wins over Indiana (45-29) and Northwestern (48-7) as well as that 2-point loss to Wisconsin (24-26).

I really like what I've seen from this Iowa offense that last two weeks to compliment a very good defense.  The Hawkeyes put up 587 total yards in their 30-14 win at Illinois two weeks ago, limiting the Illini to just 235 total yards in the process.  They also racked up 412 total yards against a very good Wisconsin defense last week.

Nebraska only managed 180 total yards in its 24-59 loss to Wisconsin.  It gave up 581 rushing yards in that game, and then followed it up by giving up 281 rushing yards to Minnesota last week.  Iowa is a team that loves to run the football as it has rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of its 11 games this season.  The Hawkeyes should have a big day on the ground and get continued solid play from QB Jake Rudock.

Iowa went into Nebraska last year and beat the Huskers 38-17.  The Huskers were in a similar position in that game as they knew they would not be going to the Big Ten Championship.  That is the case again this season, and I don't expect the Huskers to put up much of a fight at all.  They are also battling a ton of key injuries right now that will hamper their chances.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game.  The Hawkeyes are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Iowa is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 vs. great offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

11-28-14 Northern Illinois +7.5 v. Western Michigan Top 31-21 Win 100 4 h 48 m Show

20* NIU/WMU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +7.5

There are three teams tied atop the MAC West standings with 6-1 records with a chance to play in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green next week.  Two of them square off today in Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, while the other is Toledo.

It's almost a given that Northern Illinois or Toledo will advance.  That's because Toledo plays cupcake Eastern Michigan today and is listed as a 23-point favorite.  It will surely win that game.  Toledo would make it with a Western Michigan win against Northern Illinois.

The only way that Western Michigan will be going to the championship game is if it wins today and Toledo loses, so that is almost out of the question.  The players know that a Toledo loss is unlikely, so they have that in the back of their heads and probably feel defeated right now.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, gets into the MAC Championship with a win.  It has a head-to-head win over Toledo so it would own the tiebreaker, while WMU lost to Toledo and would lose that tiebreaker.  So, from a motivational perspective, you do not want your money on Western Michigan, but you want it on NIU given the situation.

Western Michigan is way overvalued in this game given the circumstances.  But the biggest reason it is overvalued is the fact that it has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.  The betting public has taken notice and has jumped on them, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

NIU is a perennial MAC Championship Contender that has been to the title game in four consecutive seasons, winning two of them.  So, they are used to being in this spot, but it wasn't a given this year.  This team has come out and earned it by going 9-2 this season despite many picking them to finish outside of 1st place.

What has been most impressive about NIU is its ability to overcome the losses of stud quarterbacks in recent years.  It is still putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game this season, including 251 rushing and 5.0 per carry. 

Quarterback Drew Hare has been an absolute stud, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, while also rushing for 754 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.2 per carry.

Western Michigan has played one of the softest schedules you can imagine, which is the biggest reason for its 8-3 record.  It has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Purdue (34-43), Virginia Tech (17-35) and Toledo (19-20).  I would argue that NIU is the best team that it has faced up to this point.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.  It is coming back to win these games by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Another thing you have to like about the Huskies is that they last played on November 18th, while WMU last played on November 22nd.  That's an extra four days of rest for the Huskies compared to the Broncos.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

11-27-14 LSU -3 v. Texas A&M Top 23-17 Win 100 55 h 10 m Show

20* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on LSU -3

While it has certainly been a down season by LSU (7-4) standards, I have seen enough from this team to know that it is worthy of being more than a 3-point favorite at Texas A&M Thursday night. Its four losses have come to the likes of Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Three of those teams are ranked in the top 15, while the other (Arkansas) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

LSU even played both Mississippi State and Alabama very tough. It only lost 29-34 at home to Mississippi State, which is currently ranked No. 4 in the country. No. 1 Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU 20-13. If they can play with those two teams, the Tigers can certainly go into College Station and come away with a victory this week.

Simply put, this is a down year for Texas A&M (7-4). The Aggies are 3-4 in SEC play and have been thoroughly outplayed in each of their last four games despite going 2-2. They lost 59-0 at Alabama and were outgained by 430 yards in that contest. They barely beat Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 at home and should have lost that game as they were outgained by 104 yards. They did upset Auburn 41-38, but were outgained by 129 yards and never should have won.

The Aggies were also outgained by Missouri by 246 yards in their 27-34 home loss last time out. So, when you add up the yardage totals for their last four games, you find that the Aggies have actually been outgained by an average of 227.3 yards per game. That is the sign of a really bad team, and one that doesn’t belong on the same field as LSU Thursday night.

The difference in this game is going to be LSU’s running game against Texas A&M’s weak run defense. LSU averages 205 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, while Texas A&M gives up 210 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Tigers are going to be able to run at will on this soft Aggies’ defense. Texas A&M gave up 363 rushing yards to Auburn, 335 to Missouri, 298 to Alabama, 289 to Mississippi State, 285 to Arkansas, and 240 to Rice.  More of the same can be expected against the Tigers.

LSU has owned Texas A&M each of the last three seasons. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Aggies, winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. The Aggies were much stronger the last two years than they are this season. LSU beat Texas A&M 34-10 at home last year while outgaining the Aggies 517-299 for the game, or by 218 total yards. They rushed for 324 yards in the win.

Plays on road favorites (LSU) – after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 31-4 (88.6%) ATS since 1992. Texas A&M is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 points per game or more. The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.  The Aggies are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in its previous game. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a bye week. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system going against Texas A&M.  Bet LSU Thursday.

11-25-14 Ohio -3 v. Miami (OH) 24-21 Push 0 9 h 59 m Show

15* Ohio/Miami (Ohio) MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ohio -3

The Ohio Bobcats (5-6) need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they have every reason to be motivated coming into this game. At 2-9 on the season, Miami Ohio has nothing to play for but pride. I like the motivational angle favoring the Bobcats as well as the way they have been playing of late, which has been very impressive.

Ohio has played two of its best games of the season in its last two contests. The first was a 37-14 home win over Buffalo in which it outgained the Bulls by 255 yards and dominated in every phase of the game. The second came in a losing effort to Northern Illinois (14-21) last week. It actually outgained the Huskies by 19 yards for the game. The Huskies are the favorites to win the MAC right now with just one conference loss all season, so that effort was impressive by the Bobcats.

While I will admit that the Redhawks are better than their 2-9 record would indicate, I still believe they should be a bigger underdog in this contest. They have had some close losses this season, but the fact is that they continue to lose. They only have two wins all year, and those two came against MAC bottom feeders UMass (42-41) and Kent State (10-3) by a combined eight points. Both of those games were played at home, too.

Miami Ohio has had some poor performances on its home turf as well. It lost at home to FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 10-17, while also falling to Western Michigan 10-41 in its last home game. It was outgained by the Broncos by 263 yards in that contest. That was the fourth time this season that the Redhawks have been outgained by 144 or more yards in a game. They are getting outscoring by 10.0 points per game on the season and outgained by 58.5 yards per game.

Ohio has really gotten its running game going here of late. It rushed for 233 yards on Buffalo and 203 yards on Northern Illinois in its last two games. It should be able to move the football at will on the ground against a Miami Ohio defense that has been soft as butter against the run.

The Redhawks are giving up 202 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season against teams that average 161 rushing yards and 4.4 per carry.  They gave up 273 rushing yards to Buffalo, 433 to Northern Illinois, 282 to Western Michigan and 209 to Central Michigan.  As you can see, these numbers are staggering and suggest that they can do little to stop the run.

The Bobcats are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redhawks. They won 41-16 at home last year while outgaining Miami Ohio 535-240 for the game, or by 295 total yards. Miami Ohio is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Redhawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Roll with Ohio Tuesday.

11-22-14 USC +4 v. UCLA 20-38 Loss -109 27 h 24 m Show

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

11-22-14 Missouri v. Tennessee -3.5 Top 29-21 Loss -110 27 h 55 m Show

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

11-22-14 Miami (Fla) v. Virginia +6 Top 13-30 Win 100 26 h 25 m Show

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

11-22-14 Louisville v. Notre Dame -3 31-28 Loss -110 23 h 54 m Show

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

11-22-14 Ole Miss v. Arkansas +3.5 0-30 Win 100 23 h 54 m Show

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

11-22-14 Boston College +17 v. Florida State 17-20 Win 100 23 h 54 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

11-22-14 Marshall v. UAB +20 Top 23-18 Win 100 19 h 25 m Show

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

11-21-14 Air Force +6 v. San Diego State Top 14-30 Loss -104 15 h 31 m Show

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +6

The Air Force Falcons (8-2) have been the surprise of the Mountain West Conference this season. They have won eight games and are right in the thick of the Mountain Division title race. I expect them to continue their solid play in Week 13 as they visit the San Diego Aztecs (5-5), who aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in year’s past.

Air Force has beaten the likes of Boise State, Navy and Nevada this season, so its 8-2 record is no fluke. Its only losses have come on the road at Wyoming and at Utah State, which are two solid football teams. Only once all season has this team lost by more than four points, which came in a 16-34 setback at Utah State on October 11th in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Falcons were only outgained by nine yards in that contest.

Air Force boasts an explosive offense this season that is putting up 33.0 points and 437.6 yards per game. Once again, the ground game has been its bread and butter, averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. However, the difference this season has been the threat of a passing game.

The Falcons are completing 61.0% of their passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. They continually get big plays in the the passing game because opponents sell out to stop the run.  Kale Pearson has taken advantage, throwing for 1,342 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions, which are impressive numbers for a quarterback in the triple-option.

The Falcons are also improved on the other side of the ball, allowing just 23.6 points and 379.9 yards per game. They should be able to hold an SDSU offense in check that has been terrible all year. The Aztecs are only averaging 24.1 points and 387.2 yards per game against opposing defenses that are allowing 33.6 points and 452 yards per game. They are being held to 9.5 points and 65 yards per game below their opponents’ season averages on the season.

San Diego State has not beaten anybody of any relevance. Its five wins have come against the likes of Idaho, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and Northern Arizona. This could be a big hangover spot for the Aztecs, who fought tough last week but lost 29-38 at Boise State. It’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after a loss to arguably the best team in the Mountain West.

Also, this short week is going to be hard on the Aztecs.  The triple-option is very difficult to prepare for, and that is amplified when a team doesn't have a full week or more to prepare.  The Falcons should be able to have plenty of success on offense against this unprepared SDSU defense.  I look for the Aztecs to miss a lot of assignments, and defenses have no chance against the triple-option when they aren't assignment-sound.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Air Force and San Diego State have faced the same four teams. Air Force is 4-0 against those teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.0 points per game. San Diego State is just 2-2 against those teams, outscoring them by just 0.5 points per game.  By those numbers alone, it shows that Air Force is essentially 12.5 points better than San Diego State.

This is a huge revenge game for the Falcons as well.  They have lost each of their last four meetings with the Aztecs, including a tough 20-27 home loss last year when they simply weren't that good.  They also lost 9-28 in 2012 despite outgaining the Aztecs 393-268, 27-41 in 2012 while outgaining them 419-410, and 25-27 in 2010 while outgaining them 487-456.  Not only do I expect the Falcons to dominate the box score stats again, I also expect them to come away with the victory this time around, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on a road team (AIR FORCE) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Bet Air Force Friday.

11-20-14 Arkansas State v. Texas State +5 Top 27-45 Win 100 35 h 55 m Show

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State +5

The Texas State Bobcats (5-5) are playing their best football of the season here of late. They have gone a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. This streak started with road wins at Louisiana Monroe (22-18) as a 2.5-point underdog and at New Mexico State (37-29) as a 7-point favorite. However, I have actually been more impressed with the Bobcats’ last two games, which were both losses.

They only lost 25-28 at home to Georgia Southern as a 12-point underdog on November 8th. They actually outgained the Panthers by 171 yards in the game and should have won. That's the same Georgia Southern team that is 7-0 in the Sun Belt with its only losses coming to NC State (by 1), Georgia Tech (by 3) & Navy.  The Bobcats' 20-24 road loss to South Alabama as 6-point dogs last week saw them outgain the Jaguars by 22 total yards for the game.

Texas State will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. At 5-5 on the season, they need one more win to become bowl eligible.  This will be Senior Night for the Bobcats as well, and they have several senior starters leading the way this season.  Arkansas State, meanwhile, may have a hard time being motivated for this one.

Arkansas State won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title each of the last three years, but it is guaranteed not to win it this year as it is 4-2 within the conference while Georgia Southern is 7-0.  The Red Wolves have already clinched bowl eligibility, so they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

While the Bobcats are playing well coming in, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost at home to Appalachian State 32-37 last week despite being 15-point favorites. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate, either. The Red Wolves were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 314-549 for the game, or by 235 total yards. Appalachian State led this game 37-20 before Arkansas State scored 12 points over the final 2:17 of the game in garbage time.

Texas State’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that is average 215 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It does have a lot of balance through, averaging 225 yards per game through the air on 64.0 percent completions as well. The weakness of the Arkansas State defense is against the run as it is allowing 175 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. That makes this a great matchup for the Texas State offense.

Arkansas State is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons. Texas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

11-20-14 North Carolina +6 v. Duke 45-20 Win 100 33 h 55 m Show

15* UNC/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

This marks the second straight year that the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) have finished strong at the end of the season. They won six of their final seven games last year, and they have won three of their past four heading into this game with the Duke Blue Devils (8-2). They still need one more win to become bowl eligible, and after fighting back to get to this point, they aren’t about to give in now.

The Tar Heels have beaten Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home, while also topping Virginia on the road for their three wins in their last four games. Their only loss during this stretch came at Miami, which nearly upset Florida State at home last week. In fact, their solid play stretches back to a 43-50 road loss at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs five games ago. They have covered four of their last five against the spread.

UNC boasts an explosive offense that gives it a chance to win every game it is in. It is putting up 35.9 points and 430.0 yards per game this season. Marquise Williams is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The junior is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Williams also leads the team in rushing with 623 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

North Carolina has won 21 of its last 24 meetings with Duke. Sure, it has lost the last two, but those two losses came by a combined five points. The Blue Devils won 33-30 at home in 2012 and 27-25 on the road in 2013. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there is a ton of value in backing the road underdog Tar Heels catching six points, though I expect them to win this game outright.

Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year, just as it was last season. It has been living off of close wins over the past two seasons. In fact, it has won a combined seven games by a touchdown or less over the last two years. It is only outgaining teams 396.1 to 389.7 on the season in 2014, which isn’t what you would expect from an 8-2 team. It is overvalued because of its 8-2 record, though.

UNC is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. David Cutcliffe is 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Take North Carolina Thursday.

11-18-14 UMass +7 v. Akron Top 6-30 Loss -110 23 h 27 m Show

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +7

The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, and they have proven that of late by winning three of their last four games overall.  They come into this game against Akron with a ton of confidence as a result.

UMass should be 5-5 at worst had it gotten some better fortune in close games this year.  Indeed, five of its seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.  That includes home losses to Bowling Green (42-47) and Colorado (38-41), as well as road losses to Vanderbilt (31-34), Miami Ohio (41-42) and Toledo (35-42).

Just the fact that UMass has been able to go toe-for-toe with the likes of Bowling Green, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Toledo shows what it is capable of.  Its solid play this year has finally paid off with some results.  It has won three of its last four in blowout fashion over Kent State (40-17), Eastern Michigan (36-14) and Ball State (24-10) with its only loss coming by a touchdown at Toledo during this stretch.

The Minutemen are actually outgaining opponents on the season despite their 3-7 record, which is clearly the sign of a good team.  They have done so behind a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.1 points and 448.7 yards per game.  They have put up 480 or more total yards in six straight games, including 554-plus in four of those.

Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as well.  He is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year.  Tajae Sharpe is probably the best receiver in the MAC, catching 76 balls for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns to this point.

I realize that Frohnapfel (bone bruise) is questionable to play Tuesday, and this would be an even stronger play if he was for sure starting, but I still like UMass to cover the touchdown even if he doesn't go.  The backup is former Penn State transfer Austin Whipple, who is also the coach's son and a heck of a talent.

Akron is in a downward spiral, and I don't see it turning things around tonight.  It is 0-4 in its last four games overall to completely play itself out of the MAC Title race and likely out of a bowl bid.  After losing 10-27 to Bowling Green at home two weeks ago, the Zips went on the road and were pummeled by a terrible Buffalo team 24-55 last week.

The Zips have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming in, going 0-6 ATS.  Yet, week after week, they continue to get too much respect from the books.  They only managed 229 total yards against an awful Buffalo defense last week, while they gave up 536 total yards to the Bulls in an absolute laugher.

UMass has played Akron extremely tough the last two years, and this 2014 UMass team is much better than the last two versions.  The Minutemen actually went on the road in 2012 and won 22-14 as 14.5-point underdogs to the Zips.  They also covered last year in their tough 13-14 home loss to Akron as 7-point dogs.  I fully expect the Minutemen to not only stay within a touchdown of the Zips, but to also win this game outright.

The Zips are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.  These last four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing the Minutemen.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

11-15-14 Arizona State v. Oregon State +8 27-35 Win 100 27 h 40 m Show

15* Arizona State/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) are way overvalued right now due to their five straight victories and No. 6 playoff ranking heading into this showdown with Oregon State. They are also in a bit of a letdown spot here off their huge win over Notre Dame last week in which the Fighting Irish simply handed them the win. They committed five turnovers and did not win despite gaining 487 total yards.

The Beavers certainly want to make a bowl game and will be fighting the rest of the way for two wins in their final three games to try and get to one. They are undervalued right now after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. That’s why they are catching 9.5 points at home against the Sun Devils this week. Asking ASU to go on the road and beat the Beavers by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

ASU is extremely fortunate to be 8-1 this season. It has numerous close wins this year, including a 3-point win over Utah and a 4-point win over USC thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. The Sun Devils have only outgained one of their last seven opponents by more than 68 yards, yet they have gone 6-1 during this stretch.

The Sun Devils are winning the turnover battle of late as they are +6 in their last five games, which has been the difference. You can’t count on turnovers when predicting outcomes of games.  They got 28 points off of turnovers last week against Notre Dame, and have received multiple turnovers in three of their last four games. 

The Beavers have been very good with the ball this season, committing just five turnovers in six Pac-12 games.  Look for that trend to continue and for Mike Riley's team to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset because they are not going to give the game to ASU like so many teams have before them.

The weakness of the Arizona State defense is clearly against the pass. It gave up 355 passing yards in its 27-62 home loss to UCLA back on September 25th. It allowed 313 to Colorado, 273 to USC and 446 to Notre Dame as well. The strength of the Oregon State offense is its passing game. It is averaging 280 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt. I look for its offense to move the football at will through the air against this ASU defense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings between Arizona State and Oregon State. The Beavers have won each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils in Corvallis. That’s why the home team has been favored in each of the last eight meetings because home field means so much. Getting the Beavers as a big home dog here certainly shows that there is value in backing them given this recent history of home dominance.

Oregon State is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games following two or more consecutive overs. The Beavers are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games off two straight losses to conference opponents. Oregon State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.  It is coming back to win 31.6 to 21.9 in this spot. Mike Riley is 9-2 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite as the coach of Oregon State. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

11-15-14 LSU v. Arkansas Top 0-17 Win 100 24 h 55 m Show

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas PK

The LSU Tigers (7-3) are in an absolutely terrible spot here. They are emotionally deflated from their loss to the Crimson Tide in overtime last week. That was their “Game of the Year”, so to speak, and it will be impossible for them to get back up off the mat and bring their best effort against the Razorbacks this week.

The Tigers are going to need their best to beat this improved Arkansas squad, and they just won't have it this weekend.  That was a physically draining game against the Crimson Tide last week, and now they'll be up against another physical football team that loves to pound the rock and beat up opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.

Yes, Arkansas has not won an SEC game over the past two seasons, but that is no indication of what kind of team this is. It has simply been on the wrong end of many close games against the top teams in the SEC. That includes losses to Mississippi State (10-17) and Alabama (13-14) by a combined eight points, which are two of the top five teams in the country right now. They also lost to Texas A&M (28-35) in overtime.  If they can play with those three teams, they can certainly beat LSU at home.

The Tigers have lost three games this year despite playing a home-heavy schedule with only two true road games this year. They have not played well in those road games, either, losing at Auburn 7-41 and beating a down Florida team 30-27. I just don’t trust them on the road in this spot with the hangover effect from the Alabama game proving to be too much for them to overcome.

Arkansas also wants revenge from a brutal last-second loss to LSU last year. It went into Death Valley and had a 27-24 lead late as a 28-point underdog. The Tigers would get a 99-yard drive that culminated in a 49-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Jennings to Travin Dural with only 1:15 remaining to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks also need another two wins to become bowl eligible, and this is one that they must get.  They will be motivated as well to put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Fayetteville as this will be a night game.  Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees, so don't expect LSU to be thrilled about going to play in a physical, cold weather game either.

LSU almost exclusively relies on the run this season. It is averaging 221 rushing yards per game to just 177 passing yards per contest. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Razorbacks. They are giving up just 137 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against teams that average 203 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  So, they are holding the opposition to 66 yards per game less than their season averages.

They held Alabama to just 66 rushing yards on 32 carries, Northern Illinois to 123 yards on 32 carries, and Mississippi State to 128 yards on 35 carries, which are three powerful running teams.  Those numbers really stood out to me because if they can stop those three teams' running games, they can certainly stop LSU's rushing attack.

Les Miles is 7-27 ATS off a two-game home stand as the coach of LSU. Miles is 12-27 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of LSU. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

Finally, the Razorbacks have had two weeks of rest heading into this one after last playing on November 1st. Pretty much every situational factor is in their favor in this one, and I'm not so certain that they aren't the better team as it is.  This is certainly a great matchup for them as well.  That's why they have earned the status as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

11-15-14 Florida State -2.5 v. Miami (Fla) 30-26 Win 100 24 h 55 m Show

15* Florida State/Miami ACC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (9-0) at this short of a price. I believe it would be wise to take advantage and side with the defending champs, who just seem to have a will to win no matter the situation. They may not have been completely focused this season up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that they are 9-0. The Hurricanes will certainly have their full attention this week.

Because Florida State has gone just 2-7 ATS in its nine games this year, the betting public actually has wanted to stay away from them in recent weeks. They obviously came into 2014 with the kind of lofty expectations that were simply impossible to live up to considering their schedule got much tougher this year. I also believe that this poor ATS record is why we are getting the opportunity to back the Seminoles at such a great price this week.

While Miami is a quality team and improved over a year ago, I still don’t believe it has what it takes to pull off this caliber of upset. Its six wins this season have come against the likes of UNC, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Duke, Arkansas State and Florida A&M. I wouldn’t say any of those six teams are quality opponents. The Hurricanes’ three losses have come against their toughest three opponents in Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31) all by double-digits.

Florida State has played the tougher schedule this year, beating the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson (without Winston) and Oklahoma State. It has put up 31 or more points in every game this year aside from that Clemson game, which Winston didn't play in. It is averaging 37.9 points per game on the season. Winston just has a knack for playing his best football when the game is in the balance, so if this one goes down to the wire, my money is on him rather than Miami freshman Brad Kaaya.

The Hurricanes figure to rely a lot on running back Duke Johnson in this one. Well, the Seminoles have proven more than capable of stopping the run. They are giving up 135.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. I look for their focus to be on shutting Johnson down and making Kaaya try and beat them, which I don’t think the freshman is capable of doing.

The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. FSU beat Miami 41-14 last year for its fourth straight victory in this series. It outgained the Hurricanes 517-275 for the game.  After dropping from No. 2 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings, look for the Seminoles to play an inspired football game against Miami because of it.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

11-15-14 TCU v. Kansas +28.5 34-30 Win 100 18 h 14 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +28.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. That could not be more evident than the fact that they have gone 8-1 against the spread in their nine games. They are finally getting the respect they deserve not only from the playoff committee with their No. 4 ranking, but also the oddsmakers. They are now overvalued this week laying four touchdowns to the Jayhawks on the road.

TCU has only played three true road games all season. One was a 56-0 win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. Another resulted in a loss to Baylor (58-61) as they allowed 782 total yards to the Bears, and the other was a one-point win at West Virginia (31-30) in a game they probably should have lost, but the Mountaineers committed five turnovers to gift-wrap the win for them.

Kansas has actually played pretty well at home this year. It is 3-2 at home with all three of its victories coming in Lawrence. That includes a 24-10 win over a solid Central Michigan team from the MAC, and a 34-14 win against Iowa State last week. The Jayhawks have only lost one Big 12 game by more than 23 points this season, and that was a 60-14 loss at Baylor, which just beats down everyone at home. They also played Oklahoma State tough in a 20-27 home loss as an 18-point dog.

That game against the Cyclones last week was awfully impressive. The Jayhawks dominated from start to finish, and the 20-point result was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate. They outgained the Cyclones 514-373 for the game, or by 141 total yards. Michael Cummings threw for 278 yards and a touchdown, while Corey Avery and Troy Pierson each rushed for over 100 yards in the win.

Interim head coach Clint Bowen has really lifted the spirits of these players since the firing of Charlie Weis.  All of their hard work finally payed off last week in that 34-14 win over the Cyclones, and now they will have supreme confidence in what Bowen is doing.  This team really feels like they can compete with TCU, and I look for them to show it on the field Saturday.

The Horned Frogs are in a massive letdown spot here off their big win over Kansas State last week. They are also feeling pretty good about themselves after moving up to No. 4 in the playoff rankings. They could also start to feel the pressure from that ranking and not play their best because of it. Either way, this is a tough spot for them, especially asking them to win by more than four touchdowns on the road when they haven’t played that well away from home.

Plays against road favorites (TCU) – excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Jayhawks only lost by 10 at TCU as a 24-point dog last year and by 14 at home as an 18.5-point dog to the Horned Frogs in 2012. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think as well, and for the Jayhawks to stay within the inflated number for a third straight season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

11-15-14 Clemson -2.5 v. Georgia Tech Top 6-28 Loss -110 16 h 55 m Show

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Clemson -2.5

The Clemson Tigers (7-2) have done a remarkable job of moving forward in the right direction with six straight wins despite only having star quarterback DeShaun Watson for two of those games. Those were the first two of the streak, and the Tigers put up a combined 91 points against UNC and NC State with Watson at the helm. Well, he is expected to return as the starter this week, giving the offense a huge boost.

Clemson was held to an average of 22.5 points per game over its last four with Cole Stoudt as the quarterback in wins over Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse and Wake Forest. Normally that wouldn’t be enough to win all four games, but it was because the defense held all four of those opponents to 20 or fewer points and an average of 14.0 points per game.

For the season, this Clemson defense is only allowing 18.4 points and 252.3 yards per game to rank second in the country in total defense. In fact, it has allowed 273 yards or fewer in five consecutive games coming in. That includes 119 yards to Wake Forest, 170 yards to Syracuse, and 156 yards to NC State.

Georgia Tech has won three in a row in blowout fashion, and I believe it is overvalued as a result. The Yellow Jackets have essentially been gift-wrapped all three of those wins as their opponents have committed a combined 11 turnovers during this stretch. They are not going to continue to be so fortunate in the turnover department.

The Tigers last played on Thursday, November 6th. While normally two extra days of rest wouldn’t be a big deal, it is in this situation. Any time you get some extra preparation before facing Georgia Tech it’s a big deal because the triple-option is one of the toughest schemes to prepare for.

The Yellow Jackets obviously rely heavily on the run as they average 55 attempts for 336 yards per game compared to 15 pass attempts for 146 yards per game. Perhaps no team in the country is more prepared to stop the triple-option than Clemson. It is allowing just 91 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry this season.

The Tigers have won their last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets in blowout fashion. They won 55-31 at home last year and 47-31 at home in 2012. The Tigers should put up another big number on this Georgia Tech defense, which is yielding 408.7 yards per game. Watson has been brilliant when he’s been healthy, completing 67.0 percent of his passes for 1,176 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 147 yards and three scores.

Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven visits to Georgia Tech. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after playing its last game on the road.  Take Clemson Saturday.

11-14-14 Tulsa v. Central Florida -19 Top 7-31 Win 100 62 h 32 m Show

20* Tulsa/UCF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -19

The UCF Knights are going to be highly motivated for a win Friday when they host the Golden Hurricane. They are coming off a 29-37 loss at UConn last time out in a game they never should have lost. They actually outgained the Huskies by 102 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, which cost them the win.  They are still 3-1 within the AAC and right in the hunt for the conference title just a half-game back.

They have had two weeks off since that loss, while Tulsa played SMU on Saturday and will be working on a short week. That extra rest will certainly come in handy here, and it will give the Knights a chance to correct their mistakes. They have actually won three of their last four games despite committing a combined 14 turnovers during this stretch. If they just take care of the football, they will have no problem winning this game by 20-plus points, which I fully expect them to do.

The Knights won their last home game by 20 points over Temple (34-14) in a game that was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. They outgained the Owls 466-182 for the game and forced four turnovers. That is a very good Owls team that has a win over East Carolina this year. If they can dominate Temple at home like that, they can certainly do the same against Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane really do not have much to play for the rest of the way. They are 2-7 this year and are coming off an unconvincing 38-28 home win over SMU, which may be the worst team in all of college football. They had lost seven straight prior to that win, including road losses to Memphis (20-40), Colorado State (17-42) and Florida Atlantic (21-50). UCF is every bit as good as those three teams, if not better.

Tulsa is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.2 points per game.  UCF Is 4-0 in home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points per game.  Home-field advantage is obviously going to be huge in this one for the Knights against a Tulsa team that has been atrocious on the road.

The Knights have really played well offensively of late, averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards per game in their last two contests. They should have no problem moving the football and scoring points against this pathetic Tulsa defense. The Golden Hurricane are allowing 39.2 points, 484 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play against opponents that are only averaging 26.4 points, 381 yards, and 5.5 per play on offense. This is easily one of the worst defenses in the entire country.

Plays against a road team (TULSA) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1992. The Knights are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.

Tulsa is 1-11 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane are 0-7 ATS after having lost two out of its last three games over the last two years. UCF is 8-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the past two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Friday.

11-13-14 Southern Miss +9 v. Texas-San Antonio 10-12 Win 100 37 h 49 m Show

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +9

The UTSA Roadrunners had big expectations coming into the year. They were thinking they could win a Conference USA Title thanks to playing in a weak division. Many picked them to do so, including myself. But my opinion on this team has changed drastically from the start of the year. There just isn’t much to like about the Roadrunners, who are 2-7 and in the midst of a lost season.

The reason UTSA has struggled this year is due to its offense that simply cannot move the football and score points with any consistency. Indeed, the Roadrunners are putting up just 16.9 points per game this season while ranking 125th out of 128 teams in the country in total offense at 282.1 yards per game. They have been held to 20 or fewer points in five straight games. I just don’t trust that this UTSA offense is capable of scoring enough points to win by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this 9-point spread.

While it’s not saying much, the fact of the matter is that Southern Miss is one of the most improved teams in the country over a year ago. They have won three games this season and have been much more competitive in the losses, aside from a blowout at the hands of Marshall last week. Well, the Thundering Herd are likely to go 12-0 this year, so that’s no surprise.

Unlike the Roadrunners, the Eagles do have a respectable offense that has kept them in ball games. They are averaging 370.6 yards per game on the season. Their defense hasn’t been as bad as the numbers show when you consider the opposition faced. They are giving up 452 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 437 yards per game. They have certainly faced a more difficult schedule than UTSA, yet they have a better record (3-7).

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Southern Miss and UTSA have played the same three teams this year. Both are 0-3 against those teams, but there is a distinct difference. The Eagles are getting outscored by 16.3 points per game against those three teams, but only getting outgained by 3.0 yards per game. The Roadrunners are getting outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 132.7 yards per game against them.

UTSA has not played well at home at all this year.  It is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its three home games.  It lost to New Mexico 9-21 as a 16.5-point favorite, only beat Florida International 16-13 as an 8-point favorite, and lost to UTEP 0-34 as a 14-point favorite.  That 34-point loss to the Miners happened just two games ago and gives you an indication of the kind of football the Roadrunners are playing of late.  They only gained 70 yards of total offense in that loss.

Plays on road underdogs (SOUTHERN MISS) – after a loss by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. UTSA is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Golden Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Southern Miss Thursday.

11-12-14 Ball State v. UMass -3.5 10-24 Win 100 13 h 16 m Show

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts -3.5

The UMass Minutemen get a rare opportunity to play on a nationally televised stage Wednesday night in front of their home fans at McGuirk Alumni Stadium. They will certainly be jacked up for this one, while Ball State could suffer a letdown here. The Cardinals are coming off another loss to hated rival Northern Illinois at home last week, and now their chances of making a bowl game are slim to none at 3-6 on the year.

UMass has a huge edge in rest heading into this one. It last placed on October 25th against Toledo, while Ball State faced NIU last Wednesday on November 5th. The Minutemen have had essentially two and a half weeks to get ready for the Cardinals, so they’ll be well-rested and ready to go in this one.

The Minutemen are the definition of a team that is better than their record would indicate. They have gone 2-7 straight up this season, but are a sensational 7-2 ATS because they have lost so many close games. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Their most impressive performance of the year may have come in a losing effort last time out against Toledo. They only lost 35-42 on the road as 17.5-point underdogs and were only outgained by 23 yards by the Rockets, who are 5-1 in the MAC this season. If they can play with the Rockets on the road, they can certainly play with anyone in this conference.

Despite being 2-7, the Minutemen are only getting outgained by an average of 23.0 yards per game. They have an explosive offense that is putting up 30.8 points and 435.3 yards per game this season. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,921 yards with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.

I really like the way that the Minutemen have played in their last three games coming in.  Prior to that narrow 7-point loss at Toledo, they had beaten Kent State 40-17 on the road followed by a 36-14 home victory over Eastern Michigan.  They racked up 482 yards of offense on the Golden Flashes, 562 yards on the Eagles, and 497 yards on the Rockets.  Dating back further, they have now amassed at least 482 yards of offense in each of their last five games.

Ball State is every bit as bad as its 3-6 record would indicate. It has only outgained two opponents all season. One was Colgate in the opener, and the other was Akron a couple weeks ago in a game the Zips were playing without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl. The Cardinals are getting outgained by an average of 45.4 yards per game on the season. Take away the Colgate game, and that number jumps to 74.9 yards per game.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games on turf. UMass is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games. The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record. UMass is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November games. Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet UMass Wednesday.

11-11-14 Akron -3.5 v. Buffalo Top 24-55 Loss -110 9 h 38 m Show

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron -3.5

The Akron Zips are highly motivated to become bowl eligible this season. At 4-5 on the year, they know they probably need to win out to get invited to a bowl game, which is exactly what they’ll set out to do. They have lost three in a row coming in, but two of those came without starting quarterback Kyle Pohl.

Pohl returned to action against Bowling Green last week and was rusty, completing just 31 of 62 passes for 304 yards without a touchdown and three interceptions. Look for him to have shaken off the rust and to perform much better this week against a terrible Buffalo defense.

The Bulls, meanwhile, have little to play for right now after four straight losses that have dropped them to 3-6 on the season. They have been outgained badly in three of their last four games, and they lost the other game 27-37 at Eastern Michigan, which is one of the worst teams in all of the FBS. They were outgained by 255 yards by Ohio last week in a 14-37 road loss last Wednesday.

The difference in this game is going to be the Akron defense vs. the Buffalo defense. Akron has been very good on that side of the ball, giving up just 21.0 points per game, 370.2 yards per game, and 5.0 yards per play. Buffalo, meanwhile, is allowing 33.6 points per game, 424.0 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. You also have to consider that the Zips have played the tougher schedule by far, which makes their numbers all the more impressive.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. Both the Zips and the Bulls have squared off against the same four teams this year. The Zips are 2-2 against those four teams, outscoring them by an average of 2.2 points per game. The Bulls are 1-3 against those same four teams, getting outscored by an average of 6.5 points per game. Akron is allowing just 18.8 points per game against those four teams, while Buffalo is yielding 34.3 points per game against them.

Terry Bowden is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after a game with 50 or more pass attempts as the coach of Akron. These high-volume passing games usually come in losses, which is why they are usually showing value the next week when they come back from them. The Zips simply beat themselves against Bowling Green by committing five turnovers. They actually outgained the Falcons for the game.  Bet Akron Tuesday.

11-08-14 Oregon -8 v. Utah Top 51-27 Win 100 37 h 58 m Show

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -8

This is a pretty generous line to be able to back the Ducks with. They have kicked it into high gear of late, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really make a strong push at the four-team playoff.  They have outscored their last four opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game.

Even after their 45-16 beat down of Stanford last week, they know their work isn’t done. Marcus Mariota did not come back for his junior season just to let his team suffer another letdown for a third straight year. Look for the Ducks to be 100% focused against the Utes as they know some unfinished business remains.

The Ducks once again boast one of the top offenses in the country. Putting up 45 points and 525 total yards on that Stanford defense is no small feat. They were right on par with their season averages as they put up 45.4 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. They should be able to put up another big number this week against a Utah team that is simply overrated right now.

I don’t even believe that the Utes are one of the Top 25 teams in the country even though they're ranked 17th. They have been extremely fortunate to get to 6-2 this season. In fact, the Utes have actually been outgained by their opponents in six straight games, yet they have gone 4-2 during this stretch. They are getting outgained 373.4 to 385.2 on the season and don’t have an offense explosive enough to keep up with the Ducks in this one.

Last week’s 16-19 loss to Arizona State was far from the close game that the final score would indicate. The Sun Devils actually outgained the Utes 444-241 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Utah quarterback Travis Wilson went just 12-of-22 passing for 57 yards with a touchdown in the loss. Wilson isn’t going to be able to match Mariota score-for-score in this one.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Ducks are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. Oregon is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  They allowed 239 rushing yards to the Sun Devils last week.  The Ducks have rushed for 218-plus yards in four straight games and should have no problem moving the football on the ground in this one.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

11-08-14 Kansas State v. TCU -6 20-41 Win 100 34 h 27 m Show

15* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on TCU -6

The TCU Horned Frogs have been the single-most underrated team in the country this season. They have gone 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in 2014 to make backers like myself a ton of money. While they were overvalued last week at West Virginia, they still nearly covered with a one-point win as a 3-point favorite. They are undervalued this week as only 6-point home favorites over the Kansas State Wildcats.

Trevone Boykin really needs to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. He leads a new & improved TCU offense that is putting up 48.0 points and 550.0 yards per game this season to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Boykin is completing 57.0 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with 22 touchdowns against four interceptions, while also rushing for 423 yards and four scores.

While the offense has played very well, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for the job that it has done, either. The Frogs are allowing just 22.6 points and 370.0 yards per game this season despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. Stopping Jake Waters and the Kansas State rushing attack will be key, and the Frogs are equipped to do it. They are only allowing 140 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Kansas State is nowhere near as good as the seventh-best team in the country, which is where it is currently ranked. Sure, it is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12, but it has faced a very easy conference schedule thus far. It still has road games at TCU, WVU and Baylor left on its schedule. Its true colors will show over the next four weeks as I wouldn’t be surprise to see it go 1-3 during this stretch.

Sure, Kansas State went into Oklahoma and won 31-30, but it should never have won that game as Oklahoma’s kicker gift-wrapped it for the Wildcats. They were outgained by the Sooners 385-533 for the game, but they were able to win because Michael Hunnicut missed an extra point and a chip shot field goal with only a few ticks remaining. Look for the Wildcats to get dominated in the box score in this one as well, and to lose big like they should this time around.

TCU played Kansas State very tough on the road last year. It only lost by a final of 31-33 as an 11.5-point underdog. It’s hard to even describe how much improved these 2014 Horned Frogs are over last year’s version. They will be looking for revenge on the Wildcats at home this time around. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 29.8 points per game.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off a win against a conference rival against opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1992. TCU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. The Horned Frogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games dating back to last season.  Take TCU Saturday.

11-08-14 Virginia +20.5 v. Florida State 20-34 Win 100 33 h 27 m Show

15* Virginia/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Virginia +20.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise teams in the early going with their 4-2 start. They had beaten the likes of Louisville and Pittsburgh with their only losses coming to BYU (33-41) and UCLA (20-28) up to that point. They would go on to lose two more close games to Duke (13-20) and North Carolina (27-28) before their worst performance of the season last week against Georgia Tech (10-35).

I believe that performance is why this line is so high, and that showing was an aberration when you look at how close their other four losses were coming in. The Cavaliers had not lost by more than eight points in any game up to that point, and they are still a very solid team. The problem is that they have failed to cover the spread in four straight, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now. That has provided us with some nice line value in this one.

Meanwhile, Florida State is coming off its big National TV win at Louisville last week, so the betting public is back on the FSU train. The Seminoles have no business being this heavily favored against a quality Virginia squad. They are in a big letdown spot here off that big win over Louisville and with a trip to Miami on deck next week. I don’t expect them to bring their best effort to the field Saturday night, which will have the Cavaliers staying within three touchdowns.

Florida State has been overvalued for most of the season. It is just 2-6 ATS in its eight games this year. It has only beaten two teams by more than 18 points this year. Those were home games against FBS foe The Citadel (37-12) as a 56.5-point favorite and Wake Forest (43-3) as a 37-point favorite. The Seminoles only beat Oklahoma State by 6, Clemson by 6, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 18, Notre Dame by 4 and Louisville by 11. I believe Virginia is better than half of those teams.

This Virginia defense is fully capable of limiting this FSU offense. The Cavaliers are only giving up 24.2 points, 344.7 yards, and 5.0 yards per play against opponents who average 29.3 points, 421 yards, and 5.7 yards per play this season. Florida State is allowing 22.7 points, 388.6 yards, and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 25.3 points, 371 yards, and 5.2 per play. The Seminoles rank just 10th in the ACC in total defense.

“We’re playing for coach (Mike) London, we’re playing for our teammates, we’re playing for the season, we’re playing for a bowl game,” said tight end Zachary Swanson, who played on the ’11 team that beat FSU 14-13 in Tallahassee. “We have three more opportunities to win two and I think it’s a big thing for us to get these wins, and play hard, for whatever our reasons may be.”

The Cavaliers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Seminoles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

11-08-14 Idaho +21 v. San Diego State 21-35 Win 100 33 h 47 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Idaho +21

The oddsmakers are asking San Diego State to cover a very big number here against Idaho, and I don't believe the Aztecs are capable of doing so.  That's why I'll side with the road underdog Vandals here catching three touchdowns in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The betting public wants nothing to do with this 1-7 Idaho team.  That record is the reason they are showing such good value here.  However, a closer investigation shows that they are a much better football team than that record would indicate.

Five of the Vandals' seven losses have come by 16 points or fewer.  The other two were a 24-point loss to South Alabma and a 23-point loss at Georgia Southern, which is a team that is one of the most underrated in the country.

Idaho comes into this game playing some very good football.  It has actually outgained three of its last four opponents despite going 1-3 during this stretch.  The lone exception was that 23-point road loss to Georgia Southern, which again, isn't a bad loss at all.

When I take big underdogs like this, I like them to be able to put up points because that always gives them a chance to score and get a backdoor cover if need be.  While I don't think that will be needed in this one, I do like what I've seen from this Idaho offense.

Indeed, the Vandals are scoring 26.1 points per game and averaging 426.0 yards per game.  Matt Linehan is completing 60.9 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards on the season, and Jerrel Brown has rushed for 451 yards while averaging 5.2 per carry.  Elijhaa Penny has added 368 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

San Diego State is just 4-4 on the season.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Northern Arizona, UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii.  It has only won one game by more than 17 points this season, and that was against FCS foe NAU.  It only beat Hawaii by 10, New Mexico by 10, and UNLV by 17, which are three awful teams that I believe Idaho could beat.

The Aztecs simply lack the offense to cover such a big number like this one.  They are only scoring 22.1 points per game and averaging 388.7 yards per game.  That's really bad when you consider that their eight opponents faced thus far average giving up 33.1 points per game and 451 yards per game on defense.

Plays on road underdogs (IDAHO) - off a home loss by 14 or more points, with 17 or more total starters returning are 69-34 (67%) ATS since 1992.  The Vandals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Aztecs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

Off a big loss at Nevada last week, and with Boise State on deck, this is certainly a letdown spot for SDSU as well.  I don't expect them to have the kind of focus or the offensive firepower it will take to win this game by more than three touchdowns against a sneaky Vandals squad.  Roll with Idaho Saturday.

11-08-14 Georgia Southern -14 v. Texas State 28-25 Loss -110 30 h 17 m Show

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -14

This line has been bet up from -10 to -14 already and I still don't believe it's enough.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are an under-the-radar team from the Sun Belt that the oddsmakers just haven't been able to keep up with.

The Eagles are 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) by a combined five points.  Six of their seven wins have come by 20 points or more, so this team has been blowing out the opposition on the regular.

Georgia Southern boasts a potent offense that is putting up 44.4 points, 519.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  It is giving up just 20.9 points, 379.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  As you can see, it is outscoring opponents by an average of 23.5 points per game and outgaining foes by 139.9 yards per game.

Texas State is a quality team, but it isn't capable of keeping up with the Eagles in this one.  That's because its defense is giving 27.7 points, 460.9 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play.  That is really bad when you consider its opponents are only averaging 384 yards per game on the season, so it is allowing roughly 77 yards per game more than its opposing offenses have averaged on the season.

This is just a terrible matchup for the Bobcats.  They are allowing 218 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.  There's no way they are going to be able to slow down a Georgia Southern rushing attack that is averaging 407 yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry on the year.  The Eagles are going to score and score some more because there's nothing the Bobcats are going to be able to do to stop them.

Plays on road favorites (GA SOUTHERN) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Texas State is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

11-08-14 Baylor +5 v. Oklahoma Top 48-14 Win 100 27 h 57 m Show

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

11-08-14 Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 72 Top 48-14 Win 100 27 h 57 m Show

20* Baylor/Oklahoma Side & Total Parlay on Baylor +5/UNDER 72

I realize Baylor has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home over the past few seasons. That being said, I still believe there is value in backing the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this contest against the Sooners. They are the better team and that will show on the football field Saturday afternoon as they likely win this game outright.

Baylor continues to be a spread-covering machine this season with a 5-2-1 ATS mark. It leads the country in scoring offense (50.4 PPG) and total offense (590.2 YPG) this season. Bryce Petty is having yet another monster year, throwing for 2,034 yards with 20 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He has also rushed for 111 yard and three scores. He has the best group of receivers in the entire country to get the ball to and make plays.

The most underrated facet of this Baylor team is a defense that is giving up just 21.9 points and 322.6 yards per game. Sure, the Bears did lose at West Virginia a few weeks back, but they are still 3-1 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread on the road this year. That game against West Virginia was also played in awful conditions, which hurt the Baylor offense.

Oklahoma just has not looked good in three of its last four games. Sure, it beat Iowa State handily last week, but it rolls the Cyclones year in and year out. The previous three games saw it lose at TCU 33-37 as a 3-point favorite, win against Texas 31-26 as a 16.5-point favorite, and lose at home against Kansas State 30-31 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners have now allowed 26 or more points in four of their last five games overall.

Baylor is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in its last three meetings with Oklahoma. Its only loss came by a final of 34-42 as a 21-point road underdog in 2012. Last year, the Bears dominated the Sooners in a 41-12 home victory. They outgained them 459-237 for the game, or by 222 total yards. Bryce Petty threw for 204 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for two scores, and Shock Linwood rushed for 182 yards in the win.

Plays on road underdogs (BAYLOR) – outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Baylor is 7-0 ATS off a win by 35 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons. Baylor is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall. The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Oklahoma.

I am also siding on the UNDER in this game game.  I look for it to play out similar to last year when Baylor won 41-12 for 53 combined points.  I love this Baylor defense that is much better than it gets credit for.  Oklahoma also has a solid defense that is giving up 21.7 points and 383.6 yards per game. 

The reason this total has been inflated is because both teams are coming off high-scoring games last week.  Also, Oklahoma has gone over the total in five straight games.  There's clearly some value in this UNDER because of it.  I'm looking for somewhere around a 30-20 final here with the Bears winning and covering and the UNDER coming through with ease.  Roll with Baylor and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

11-07-14 Utah State v. Wyoming +7 Top 20-3 Loss -112 69 h 5 m Show

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +7

I believe the Wyoming Cowboys are undervalued as 7-point home underdogs coming into this one. At 4-5 on the season, they desperately need to win this game if they want a chance to become bowl eligible because they still have Boise State remaining on the schedule. I’ve been very impressed with the job that Craig Bohl has done in his first season here, making the Cowboys far more competitive than they were expected to be.

Sure, Wyoming lost four straight games prior to beating Fresno State 45-17 last week, but it was competitive in every game aside from a 14-56 loss at Michigan State that started the skid. It only lost by 10 at Hawaii, by 7 to San Jose State in overtime, and by 14 at Colorado State as a 19.5-point underdogs. That tough stretch of games had the Cowboys battle-tested heading into last week’s game against Fresno State, and boy did they put on a show.

The Cowboys are coming off their best performance of the season against the Bulldogs last week. They won by a whopping 28 points on the road despite being 16-point underdogs in that contest. They outgained the Bulldogs 694-316 for the game as this was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated. Colby Kirkegaard threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while Brian Hill rushed for 281 yards and two scores on 23 carries in the win.

Utah State is coming off a 35-14 blowout win of its own at Hawaii last week, but it is overvalued here as a result. That game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Aggies only outgained the Warriors 465-454 for the game. The Aggies benefited from a defensive touchdown and finished +3 in turnover differential in the win.

While I admit that Kent Myers looked very good in his first start for the Aggies against the Warriors, he wasn’t asked to do much as he threw for just 186 yards on 15 attempts in the win. Meyers is a freshman who was supposed to redshirt, but since there have been injuries to the top three quarterbacks on the roster, he has been forced into action. The Aggies certainly should not be a touchdown road favorite here with a fourth-string quarterback under center.

Wyoming is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to San Jose State by a final of 20-27 in overtime. The crowd will be rowdy for this one as this is a rare opportunity for the Cowboys to showcase themselves on National TV. This game will be nationally televised on ESPN 2 Friday night, which will just add more fuel to the fire for the Cowboys. They come in with a ton of confidence off that win against Fresno State last week.

The Cowboys are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Wyoming Friday.

11-07-14 Memphis -7.5 v. Temple 16-13 Loss -102 69 h 34 m Show

15* Memphis/Temple AAC Friday No-Brainer on Memphis -7.5

The Temple Owls are in a massive letdown spot here against the Memphis Tigers. They are coming off their biggest win of the season against a ranked opponent in East Carolina. They won that game 20-10, but when you look at the box score, it’s easy to see that it was a complete fluke. The Owls were outgained by the Pirates 135-432 for the game, or by 297 total yards. The difference was that ECU committed five turnovers while the Owls didn’t commit a single one.

That was the third straight lousy performance for the Owls offensively. They only managed 10 points and 357 total yards in a 10-31 loss to Houston on October 17th. They came back and scored just 14 points behind 182 total yards in a 14-34 loss at UCF on October 25th. So, in their last three games combined, Temple has averaged just 16.0 points and 224.7 yards per game.

That’s not going to cut it this week against a Memphis team that is vastly improved over a year ago. Its only three losses this season have come to the likes of UCLA (35-42), Ole Miss (3-24) and Houston (24-28). That’s how close this is to being a 7-1 team right now. The Tigers even trailed the Rebels 7-3 on the road entering the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final period.

Despite playing this tough schedule, the Tigers have put up the kind of numbers that show they are a real contender to win the American Athletic this year after their 3-1 start in conference play. They are scoring 36.2 points and averaging 448.0 yards per game on offense, while giving up just 19.4 points and 350.6 yards per game on defense. In conference play alone, the Tigers are ouscoring teams 38.2 to 18.0 and outgaining them 496.5 to 342.0.

Temple is 3-2 in conference play, but it’s a complete fluke. The Owls are outscoring teams 23.0 to 21.8 within the conference, but they are getting outgained 288.6 to 416.4 in AAC play. So, Memphis is outgaining conference opponents by an average of 154.5 yards per game, while Temple is getting outgained in AAC play by an average of 127.8 yards per game. Without question, the Tigers are the better team despite their identical 5-3 records, and that will show on the football field Friday night.

Memphis is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 November road games. Temple is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 75 or less passing yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Memphis Friday.

11-05-14 Northern Illinois -3 v. Ball State Top 35-21 Win 100 26 h 37 m Show

20* MAC Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

While the Huskies are not as dominant as they have been over the past several years, they are still one of the best teams in the MAC at 6-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Arkansas and Central Michigan.  They have taken care of business against all other comers, and have actually played their best football on the road.  They beat the likes of Northwestern, UNLV and Eastern Michigan for a 3-1 record in road games this year.

Despite the losses of two of the best quarterbacks the MAC has ever seen in recent years in Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch, the Huskies are still performing at a high level offensively.  They are scoring 31.6 points and averaging 464.9 yards per game.  Drew Hare is completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,226 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 581 yards and five scores on 7.6/carry.  He's the next great dual-threat QB for this program.

Ball State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers in this one as only a 3-point underdog.  That's because it has won its last two games against Central Michigan and Akron.  Well, Central Michigan gave that game away as it outgained the Cardinals by 139 total yards but committed five turnovers in a 29-32 loss.  Akron was playing without starting QB Kyle Pohl in its 21-35 loss to the Cardinals and blew a 21-13 halftime lead thanks to committing five turnovers as well.  So, Ball State has benefited from 10 turnovers by the opposition in its two wins, and that is unsustainable.

The reason the Cardinals stand little chance of keeping this game competitive is because of their offense.  They are only averaging 364 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that are allowing 406 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Defensively, they are giving up 404 yards per game and 5.9 per play against teams that average 374 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  Simply put, the Cardinals are not a very good team this year when you look at the numbers.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 in its last five meetings with Ball State, which includes two blowout victories on the road by finals of 35-23 and 59-21.  The Huskies have put up 569 yards, 509 yards, and 710 yards on the Cardinals in their last three meetings, respectively. 

The Huskies are averaging 269 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry this season, which is bad news for the Cardinals, who are giving up 188 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry. 

The Huskies are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage between 25% and 40%.  The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home record of .500 or worse.  Northern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games overall.  Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.

11-04-14 Bowling Green +6.5 v. Akron 27-10 Win 100 9 h 45 m Show

15* MAC Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +6.5

Asking the Akron Zips to win by a touchdown or more to cover against the defending MAC champs is too much. Sure, Bowling Green isn’t nearly as strong as it was a year ago, but it is still arguably the better team this season at 5-3 compared to the Zips, who are 4-4. I’d much rather take my chances with the road underdog in this one and the points.

The Falcons will have a big edge in this one in the rest department as they last played on October 18th. Meanwhile, the Zips last played on October 25th, so the Falcons have an extra week of preparation for this game under their belts. They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the football field in this one and correct their mistakes from a 14-26 loss to Western Michigan last time out.

Akron has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games overall and clearly has been overvalued since an upset win against Pittsburgh. It is coming off two straight outright losses at Ohio (20-23) and at Ball State (21-35) despite being favored in both contests. This team has no business laying a touchdown tonight off its last four performances.

Bowling Green boasts an offense that has put up 31 or more points in six of its eight games this season. It is averaging 33.6 points and 454.7 yards per game on the season. James Knapke has filled in nicely for the injured Matt Johnson, completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,958 yards and 10 touchdowns, while also rushing for 157 yards and five scores. Travis Greene (636 yards, 8 TD, 5.0/carry) and Fred Coppet (366 yards, 5 TD, 5.1/carry) have been a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Akron, on the other hand, is putting up just 22.9 points and 382.7 yards per game this year. That’s why it cannot be trusted to lay points because it struggles to put points on the scoreboard itself. The Zips have been held to 21 or fewer points in five of their eight games this season. They only managed 318 yards against Miami (Ohio), 352 yards against Ohio, and 325 yards against Ball State in their last three games, respectively.

The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Zips.  They have won four of those five games by 14 points or more as well while outscoring them by an average of 15.0 points per game.  As you can see, this has clearly been a one-sided series in recent years.

Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. The Zips are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

11-01-14 Utah State v. Hawaii +3 35-14 Loss -115 27 h 24 m Show

15* Utah State/Hawaii Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hawaii +3

The Utah State Aggies have no business being favored on the road at Hawaii, which has historically been a much better home team than a road team for obvious reasons.  I'll take the points with the Warriors in this one in a game they'll likely win outright.

Utah State is living too much off reputation as being one of the better non-Power 5 conference teams in the country over the last few seasons.  That certainly isn't the case in 2014.  Sure, they are 5-3 this season, but a closer look at their five victories shows that none of them have been impressive.

Utah State has beaten the likes of Idaho State, Wake Forest, BYU, Air Force and UNLV this season.  Sure, the win over BYU stands out, but that was the same game that star quarterback Taysom Hill broke his leg midway through the contest.  The Cougars never recovered and were deflated for the rest of the game, and the Aggies took advantage.

Speaking of quarterback injuries, the Aggies have the worst situation in the country in that department.  They lost Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending injury.  Backup Darrell Garretson played well in his place before going down as well.  If that wasn't enough, third-stringer Craig Harrison i snow out with a knee injury.

That leaves fourth-string quarterback Kent Myers to take over the starting QB duties this week against Hawaii.  Myers is a freshman who was expected to redshirt this year, but now he'll be thrust into the action against Hawaii.  Make no mistake, teams down to their fourth-string QB usually aren't successful, just ask Maryland a few years back.

Hawaii may be just 2-6 this season, but I have seen signs that this team is better than that record would indicate.  It only lost to Washington (16-17) and Oregon State (30-38) at home by a combined nine points, a pair of Pac-12 opponents.  It beat Wyoming and Northern Iowa at home, while also taking a 10-0 lead against Nevada last week before eventually losing 18-26 at home.  All six of its losses have come by 14 points or fewer, and five by 10 points or less, so it's not like it has been really blown out in any game.

The Warriors are 51-28 at home compared to 20-38 on the road over the past 10-plus seasons.  The Aggies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

11-01-14 San Diego State v. Nevada -3 14-30 Win 100 27 h 55 m Show

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Nevada -3

The Nevada Wolf Pack (5-3) deserve a lot more credit than they are getting as only 3-point home favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs (4-3) in this game Saturday.  I look for them to win this one going away and to cover this generous spread with ease.

Nevada has beaten a Pac-12 opponent in Washington State by a final of 24-13 at home while losing to one of the better teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 28-35 on the road as a 20-point underdog.  It has also gone on the road and beaten San Jose State (21-10), BYU (42-35) and Hawaii (26-18).

The Wolf Pack's other two losses came to very good teams as underdogs to both Boise State (46-51) and Colorado State (24-31) at home.  So, as you can see, all three of their losses have come by a touchdown or less against great opponents.  That's how close this is to being an 8-0 team.

San Diego State doesn't have an impressive win yet.  Its four victories have resulted in two home wins over Northern Arizona, UNLV and Hawaii, as well as a road win at New Mexico.  Its three losses have come against the best three teams it has faced in North Carolina, Oregon State and Fresno State all on the road.

The Aztecs have played a much easier schedule than the Wolf Pack up to this point.  They have gone 1-3 on the road this season where they are getting outscored 17.7 to 24.2 on average.  As stated before, their lone road win came at New Mexico, which is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.

Cody Fajardo is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he leads a Nevada offense that is putting up 29.9 points and 414.1 yards per game this season.  He is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year, while also rushing for 585 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per rush.

Nevada wants revenge from a pair of close losses to San Diego State over the past two seasons.  It lost 44-51 on the road last season to the Aztecs in overtime despite gaining 564 total yards in the loss.  It also fell 38-39 at home in overtime to the Aztecs in 2012 despite outgaining them 480-349 for the game.  So, after back-to-back overtime losses, you can bet that the Wolf Pack have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time.

The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wolf Pack are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aztecs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

11-01-14 Auburn v. Ole Miss -1.5 35-31 Loss -104 23 h 25 m Show

15* Auburn/Ole Miss SEC West No-Brainer on Ole Miss -1.5

The loss by Ole Miss last week to LSU is keeping this line lower than it should be. I believe the Rebels are the better team in this one, and their home-field advantage is worth more than what is factored into this line. Oddsmakers are actually saying that Auburn is the better team if they are only giving Ole Miss credit for three points for their home field. I’m not buying it.

I would argue that Ole Miss has the best defense in the entire country. After all, it is only giving up an average of 10.5 points per game on the season. What makes that so impressive is the brutal schedule that it has faced already having to take on the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. It held all three of those teams to 20 or fewer points, and I look for it to do the same against Auburn en route to victory.

The Rebels have been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game. They have beaten four quality teams at home as well in Louisiana Lafayette (56-15), Memphis (24-3), Alabama (23-17) and Tennessee (34-3). If they can beat Alabama, they can certainly beat Auburn as I believe the Crimson Tide are a much better team than the Tigers.

Auburn has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this year in my opinion. That has shown in recent weeks as it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall. It only beat Kansas State 20-14 as a 7-point road favorite, it lost at Mississippi State 23-38 as a 3-point road favorite, and it barely beat South Carolina 42-35 at home last week as an 18-point favorite.

The Rebels certainly have a massive edge in this one defensively. The Tigers have been hemorrhaging points and yards over their last two games. Indeed, they have given up averages of 36.5 points and 502.0 yards per game during this stretch. They surrendered 38 points and 469 total yards to Mississippi State, and 35 points and 535 total yards to South Carolina, which had been struggling offensively prior to last week’s game.

Ole Miss certainly wants revenge on Auburn from its 22-30 road loss last year in a game that it should have won. It actually outgained the Tigers 464-375 for the game. Bo Wallace threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, but his two interceptions proved to be costly. Nick Marshall went just 11 of 17 passing for 93 yards for the Tigers.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won six of the last seven meetings. The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Ole Miss is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. Hugh Freeze is 24-10 ATS in all games as the coach of Ole Miss.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

11-01-14 Kentucky +8 v. Missouri 10-20 Loss -110 20 h 26 m Show

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kentucky +8

The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year.  I fully believe they'll go into Columbia and give the Missouri Tigers a run for their money and likely pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.

Kentucky (5-3) is so close to becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010 that it can taste it.  A victory at Missouri would accomplish that feat following a disastrous 2-10 campaign last year.  The Wildcats almost have to be looking at this game like a must-win because their remaining schedule is difficult.  They play Georgia at home, followed by road games at Tennessee and Louisville.

Four of the Wildcats' five victories this season have come by double-digits.  They also beat South Carolina 45-38 at home in their best win of the year.  They have only been blown out once this season, which was at LSU in a game they just didn't show up.  They only lost at Florida by a final of 30-36 (OT).

Last week's performance against the No. 1 team in the country in Mississippi State shows that the Wildcats can play with anyone.  They were an onside kick away from getting the ball back and having a chance to score late to tie that game.  Instead, the Bulldogs returned the kick for a touchdown to put the game away in a 45-31 victory. 

The Wildcats managed 504 total yards against Mississippi State and have a legitimate offense this year.  They are putting up 31.6 points and 426.5 yards per game on the season.  Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles is the future of this program.  He is completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,077 yards with 12 touchdowns and only four picks this season, while also rushing for 204 yards and four scores.

There's no question that the Wildcats have a massive edge in this one on offense.  The Tigers are only averaging 330.7 yards per game on the season to rank 117th in the country out of 128 FBS teams in total offense.  With that kind of suspect offense, the Tigers have no business laying more than a touchdown in this game.

Kentucky is also improved on the other side of the football.  While Missouri has a slight edge on defense in giving up 350.9 yards per game, the Wildcats aren't far behind.  They are allowing just 24.7 points and 377.6 yards per game on the season.  This stop unit is good enough to keep them in the game this weekend.

I believe Missouri is way overvalued this week due to its 42-13 win at Florida two weeks ago.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but when you consider the Tigers only managed 119 yards of total offense and scored just one offensive touchdown, it really wasn't.  They can't rely on getting five non-offensive touchdowns every week like they did in that game.

That was a big reason why I faded Missouri last week as a 21.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt, which is easily the worst team in the SEC by a wide margin.  The Commodores kept it close, losing by a final of 14-24 to the Tigers on the road.  Remember, Indiana upset Missouri 31-27 on the road earlier this season, and Georgia also beat Missouri 34-0 in Columbia a few weeks back.

Plays against home favorites (MISSOURI) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (

11-01-14 Purdue +23.5 v. Nebraska Top 14-35 Win 100 20 h 55 m Show

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +23.5

I believe this number is too big Saturday. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well and are one of the top 15 teams in the country, but I don’t believe the 23.5-point spread is warranted. I faded them last week with success and backed Rutgers in an 18-point loss as a 20-point underdog. I believe Purdue is every bit as good as Rutgers, especially with the way it has been playing of late.

The Boilermakers are in a good spot here as they’ll be returning from their bye week having two weeks to prepare for the Huskers. They nearly upset Minnesota on the road last time out, falling short by a final of 38-39 as 12-point underdogs. It was the third straight game where they played well. They beat Illinois 38-27 on the road as 10-point underdogs, and they only lost to Michigan State by 14 at home as 21.5-point dogs. They have actually covered five of their last six games against the spread, and they are still undervalued here.

This Purdue offense has really kicked it in gear of late. It has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games overall. Austin Appleby has stepped up his play at the quarterback position. He is now completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 655 yards with six touchdowns and four picks on the year, performing much better than Danny Etling did before Appleby took over the job for good. Appleby has also rushed for 164 yards and four scores. Akeem Hunt (640 yards, 6.2/carry, 5 TD) and Raheem Mostert (466 yards, 6.1/carry, 3 TD) are two of the most underrated backs in the league.

Nebraska has a big game at Wisconsin on deck in its next game, and it certainly could be looking ahead to that contest. I just don’t believe that the Cornhuskers are as good as they get credit for as they have faced a very easy schedule up to this point. Sure, they only lost by five at Michigan State (22-27), but they were down 27-3 in that game. It was decided well before they came back with those 19 points in the fourth quarter of garbage time.

The Boilermakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Purdue is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

11-01-14 Florida +11 v. Georgia Top 38-20 Win 100 20 h 55 m Show

20* Florida/Georgia Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +11

This rivalry game is always played close to the vest. That’s why it doesn’t always matter what the team’s records are coming into it. The last four meetings have all been decided by 8 points or less. Georgia won 23-20 last year, 17-9 in 2012, and 23-20 in 2011, while Florida won 34-31 (OT) in 2010. The Gators will be out for revenge in this one after losing the last three by such small margins.

The betting public wants nothing to do with Florida after it lost to Missouri 13-42 in its last game. However, a closer look at the box score shows that there’s no way in hell the Gators should have lost that game by such a wide margin. They actually gave up just 119 total yards and one offensive touchdown to the Tigers. Missouri scored a ridiculous five non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which was a complete fluke.

Considering Florida nearly beat LSU the week before, I have no doubt that this is still a quality team despite its 3-3 record. The Gators lost to LSU 27-30, which is the same LSU team that just beat previously unbeaten Ole Miss last week. The Gators held the Tigers to just 305 total yards. They also held Missouri to the 119 yards and Tennessee to 233 yards in their last three contests.

The biggest reason Florida has a chance to keep this game close is its defense, which ranks 12th in the country in giving up just 312.8 yards per game on the season. Georgia has a solid stop unit as well, giving up 320.6 yards per game, but I have no doubt that Florida has the better overall defense in this one.

The edge does go to Georgia offensively, but it’s not like the Bulldogs are one of the top offenses in the country. They are averaging a pedestrian 437.1 yards per game to rank 49th in total offense. They have been impressive in their last two games without Todd Gurley, but they will really miss him in this game.  Also, Georgia is overvalued this week due to its five-game winning streak coming in.  It hasn't beaten a single great team during this stretch as its wins have come against Troy, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Arkansas.

The Florida offense should be better with Treon Harris as the starter. Will Muschamp has decided to bench Jeff Driskel, who has been simply atrocious at the quarterback position up to this point.  Harris has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick in limited action. I believe this Florida defense will keep them in the ball game, while Harris will make enough plays to keep the Gators within this double-digit spread.

Florida is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 games following a two-game home stand. Georgia is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 games off a double-digit road win. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a bye week. The Bulldogs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.  Take Florida Saturday.

11-01-14 North Carolina +15 v. Miami (Fla) Top 20-47 Loss -105 17 h 56 m Show

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina +15

This feels a lot like last year when North Carolina opened 1-5 and went 6-1 down the stretch.  After starting 2-4, the Tar Heels have won their last two games with a home win over Georgia Tech as a narrow favorite and an upset win at Virginia.  Their only loss in their last three games came at Notre Dame by a final of 43-50 as a 16.5-point underdog, which I would consider a very good loss.

This North Carolina offense will keep it in every game from here forward.  It is averaging 37.4 points and 442.5 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,035 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing (497 yards, 5 TD).

Miami doesn't have a win over a really great opponents yet.  It has beaten the likes of Florida A&M, Arkansas State, Duke, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech.  It has lost to the three best opponents it has faced in Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28) all by double-digits.  Asking the Hurricanes to win by more than two touchdowns to cover against the Tar Heels is simply asking too much.

The underdog has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the the last 10 meetings in this series while pulling off five outright upsets in the process.  The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points or less, and six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The road team has won each of the last three meetings.

UNC is 9-2 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS off two straight conference games over the last two years.  North Carolina is 8-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Miami is 2-9 ATS off a conference game over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

10-31-14 Tulsa +24.5 v. Memphis Top 20-40 Win 100 22 h 20 m Show

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +24.5

I realize that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have lost six straight games coming into this contest. However, that streak has made them way undervalued heading into this game against a much-improved Memphis squad. I certainly like their chances of staying within 24 points of the Tigers in this battle between former Conference USA rivals.

I’ve seen enough from Tulsa even in some losses to know that its is more than capable of keeping this game within 24 points. It only lost to Texas State 34-37 as a 3-point favorite, it lost to Tempe on the road 24-35 as a 17-point underdog, and it lost to South Florida 30-38 at home as a 2-point dog. I know Memphis is better than all three of those teams, but asking it to win by 25-plus points to cover is asking too much.

The one thing that gives Tulsa a chance to keep this game close is its offense, which is putting up a very impressive 433.3 yards per game this season, which is only slightly behind Memphis (451.1 YPG). In their last four games, the Golden Hurricane put up 434 yards against Texas State, 390 yards against Colorado State, 438 yards against Temple, and 488 yards against South Florida.

Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans has played pretty well this season. He is completing 56.3 percent of his passes for 1,941 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Zach Langer (436 yards, 4.2/carry) and James Flanders (330 yards, 4.5/carry) have provided steady play at running back. Keevan Lucas (64 receptions, 809 yards, 8 TD) is one of the most underrated receivers in the country.

Tulsa has had two full weeks to prepare for Memphis. The Golden Hurricane last played on October 18th, while the Tigers last played on October 25th. That extra week of preparation is going to be huge in this game, especially with the Tigers working on a short week already after having played on Saturday.

While I admit that the Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, they are finally getting too much respect this week.  They have covered the spread in five of their seven games this year, and the betting public has taken notice.  They have no business being a 24-point favorite against almost any FBS opponent outside of SMU.  They were 'only' a 23-point favorite against awful SMU last week, and they are getting too much respect this week after blowing them out.

Memphis is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit road win. Memphis is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off a win against a conference opponent.  Bet Tulsa Friday.

10-30-14 Florida State -3.5 v. Louisville 42-31 Win 100 9 h 7 m Show

15* Florida State/Louisville ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3.5

This is a pretty generous line to back the No. 2 team in the country in the Florida State Seminoles. I know that they haven’t been nearly as dominant as last year, but they’ve also played a tougher schedule up to this point. I believe their few closes wins this season against good teams in Clemson and Notre Dame have kept this spread smaller than it should be.

Keep in mind that Clemson was playing with DeShaun Watson at quarterback while FSU was playing without Jameis Winston when it beat the Tigers in overtime earlier this year. Also, the 31-27 win over Notre Dame is nothing to laugh about as the Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country and currently ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll.

Louisville also lost a close one to Clemson by a final of 17-23. However, Watson went down with an injury early in that game, and the Cardinals couldn’t take advantage. Clemson is a much inferior offensive team with Cole Stoudt at quarterback rather than Watson. So, you can’t really even compare those games. The Cardinals haven’t really beaten a great team yet as their six wins have come against Miami, Murray State, FIU, Wake Forest, Syracuse and NC State.

Florida State is putting up 37.9 pints and 442.7 yards per game on the season. Jameis Winston is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,878 yards with 13 touchdowns and six picks on the year. I don’t believe Louisville has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Seminoles in this one. It is averaging 30.9 points and 370.4 yards per game on the season, averaging a mere 5.0 yards per play. It hasn’t face very many good defenses, either, and the ones it did it lost to in Virginia and Clemson.

The Seminoles are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games coming in. Louisville is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games following three straight conference games. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two years. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Florida State Thursday.

10-25-14 Ohio State -13.5 v. Penn State Top 31-24 Loss -111 29 h 8 m Show

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -13.5

Quietly, the Buckeyes have gone 5-1 against the spread this season. They continue to be a covering machine under Urban Meyer and are currently playing as well as almost anyone in the country. They need to keep packing on style points if they want to make the four-team playoff because the 21-35 home loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 is hard for the playoff committee to forget.

The Buckeyes have been doing their best in trying to make everyone forget about that Virginia Tech game, though. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight wins by 22-plus points. They beat Kent State (66-0), Cincinnati (50-28) and Rutgers (56-17) at home, while also dominating Maryland (52-24) on the road.  They are outscoring opponents 56-17 during this stretch.

Ohio State’s offense is hitting on all cylinders. It has scored 50-plus in five straight games and is now averaging 46.5 points and 533.8 yards per game on the season. Meyer is proving that he is a quarterback genius once again. J.T. Barrett has put up Heisman-like numbers in recent weeks. He is now completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,615 yards with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 383 yards and four scores on the season.

Penn State played well en route to a 4-0 start against a very soft schedule, but it has been exposed in its last two games. It lost at home to Northwestern 6-29 back on September 27th and followed that up with a 13-18 road loss to Michigan. The Nittany Lions were held to just 266 yards against the Wildcats and 214 yards against the Wolverines. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes in this one.

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Penn State. Last year, it stormed out to a 42-7 lead by halftime against the Nittany Lions and cruised to a 63-14 victory. The was the worst loss in Penn State history.  The Buckeyes outgained them 686-357 for the game. They held Christian Hackenberg to 12 of 23 passing for 112 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.

The Buckeyes are 53-25-2 ATS in their last 80 conference games. Ohio State is 35-15-1 ATS in its last 51 road games. The Buckeyes are 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

10-25-14 Alabama -17 v. Tennessee 34-20 Loss -110 29 h 46 m Show

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Alabama -17

The Crimson Tide finally lived up to their potential last week and took care of Texas A&M 59-0. I believe this will be a sign of things to come for them because the fact of the matter is that they have the most talented team in the country. Some of that talent is young, so it took a while for the Crimson Tide to gel. There may be no stopping this team the rest of the way, especially Saturday against an overmatched Tennessee squad.

The Volunteers have played their two worst games against the two best teams they have faced, and I don’t believe they have gone up against a team as strong as Alabama yet. They lost 10-34 at Oklahoma early in the season as 16-point underdogs. Then they were beat down by Ole Miss 3-34 last week as 15-point dogs. They only managed 191 total yards against the Rebels last week and committed four turnovers.

Tennessee clearly lacks the offensive firepower needed to keep up with a team like Alabama. It is only averaging 24.4 points and 325.1 yards per game on the season. Alabama is putting up 36.9 points and 510.7 yards per game, and as I’ve stated before, this may be the best offense they've had in school history.

Also, Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley suffered a shoulder injury late in the Ole Miss game last week and was forced to miss the rest of the game. If he can’t go, or if he’s limited at all, the Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close. They have a good defense, but that’s not going to be enough to make up for the lack of offense.

To say this had been a one-sided series in recent years would be a gross understatement. Alabama is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee, outscoring the Vols by an average of 25 points per game in the process. Six of those victories have come by 20 points or more, and the last four have come by 31-plus. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six visits to Knoxville.

Plays on a road team (ALABAMA) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a loss by 17 or more points are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Tennessee is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or fewer yards per game. The Vols are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

10-25-14 Vanderbilt +24 v. Missouri 14-24 Win 100 25 h 17 m Show

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +24

The Missouri Tigers come into this game against Vanderbilt way overvalued due to their 42-13 win at Florida last week.  Sure, the final score looks impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it should have been impossible for them to win by that much.  They only gained 119 yards of total offense and had one offensive touchdown.  They scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams, which is unheard of.

Simply put, Missouri cannot rely on defensive and special teams touchdowns, and they don't have the offense to put away Vanderbilt by 24-plus points this week.  Missouri ranks 118th in the country out of 128 teams in total offense this season, averaging just 323.7 yards per game.  The Tigers will be lucky to score 24 points in this one, let alone win by more than 24.

Vanderbilt opened the season with a pair of blowout losses to Temple and Ole Miss and has been undervalued since.  It has gone a profitable 3-2 ATS since.  The Commodores only lost by 14 to South Carolina as a 22.5-point underdog, 10 to Kentucky as a 17-point road underdog, and 27 to Georgia as a 33-point road dog.

That's the same Georgia team that beat Missouri on the road 34-0 a couple weeks back.  Also, South Carolina should have beat Missouri, but gave up a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter to lose 20-21.  Indiana also went into Missouri and came away with a 31-27 victory.  This Missouri team simply is not that good, yet it is getting treated like one of the better teams in the country with this 24-point spread.  The Tigers are actually getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game on the season.

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a no-cover where it won as a favorite.  The Commodores are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games following a win by 6 points or less.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games after the first month of the seaosn over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.  Vanderbilt is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

10-25-14 Texas Tech +23 v. TCU Top 27-82 Loss -110 25 h 48 m Show

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech +22.5

TCU has been the most underrated team in the country up to this point. Sharp bettors have been backing them relentlessly as their lines every week move in their direction. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to catch up to how good this team has been up to this point, which is why the Horned Frogs are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

While I’ll admit that TCU is one of the best teams in the land, the odds have finally caught up to them this week. They opened as 21-point favorites and have been bet up to 22.5 in most places as the public is all over them after realizing that they have covered every spread thus far. They are simply laying too many points here to Texas Tech, and the value is clearly with the road underdog in this one.

The two blowout losses that the Red Raiders have suffered this season have come against run-heavy teams in Arkansas (28-49) and Kansas State (13-45). They have held their own against the rest of their opponents. They only lost 35-45 to Oklahoma State as 14.5-point road underdogs. They blew a big lead and let West Virginia escape with a 37-34 road win as the Red Raiders were 5.5-point underdogs in that contest.

Texas Tech has the kind of offense that will put up points on TCU and keep it within the number. It is averaging 30.9 points and 488.3 yards per game this season. Davis Webb is having another monster season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 2,239 yards with 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

TCU hasn’t faced many elite offenses this season aside from Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma put up 33 points and 461 total yards against TCU, including 309 passing. Baylor put up 61 points and 782 total yards against the Horned Frogs, including 510 through the air. Webb should be primed for a big day in this one.

The last three meetings between TCU and Texas Tech have all been decided by 10 points or less. Texas Tech is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with TCU. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  Take Texas Tech Saturday.

10-25-14 Florida Atlantic +28 v. Marshall Top 16-35 Win 100 25 h 47 m Show

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic +28

The betting public is all over Marshall right now due to its 7-0 start and 5-1-1 ATS mark this season.  It has covered the spread in five straight games coming in.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set this line 7-10 points higher than it should be to try and draw even action on both sides knowing that the public is going to be all over Marshall again this week.  I'll take advantage and back the road dog in this one.

Florida Atlantic is a quality team that is fully capable of keeping this game within four touchdowns.  In fact, I believe this one will go right down to the wire.  The Owls suffered blowout losses to both Nebraska and Alabama on the road to open the season, but have been much more competitive since.  They have beaten the likes of Tulsa, UTSA and Western Kentucky, and they only lost by one at Wyoming.

Sure, there is one result that is going to stick in the minds of some people and question Florida Atlantic's talent.  They went on the road and lost 10-38 at Florida International a few weeks back despite being a 6.5-point favorite.  However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Owls actually outgained the Panthers 383-345 for the game.  That yardage differential wouldn't normally lead to a 28-point loss, but the Owls committed four turnovers.  I believe that effort was more of an aberration than anything.

Last year, Florida Atlantic lost 23-24 at home to Marshall as a 10-point underdog in a game it should have won.  It actually outgained the Thundering Herd 400-355 for the game.  The Owls held star quarterback Rakeem Cato to just 18 of 34 passing for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the loss.  They want revenge from that one-point defeat, and I just cannot foresee them getting blown out by four-plus touchdowns in the rematch a year later.

Florida Atlantic is a sensational 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Florida Atlantic is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday.

10-25-14 Michigan +17 v. Michigan State 11-35 Loss -104 25 h 46 m Show

15* Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry Play on Michigan +17

Let's just start out by saying that this is the most Michigan State has ever been favored in this history of this series.  This is a lot of points for the Spartans to be laying in a rivalry game. I know that they are one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but anything can happen in these rivalry games.

This line is a bit inflated due to Michigan State’s blowout win over Indiana last week. The Spartans actually trailed in the second quarter before scoring on six straight possessions to win 56-17.  However, they had an easy path to victory due to a soft Indiana defense, but also an Indiana offense that was missing starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld.

I like Michigan’s mental and physical state coming into this game. This is a chance for the Wolverines to turn their season around with an upset win, and motivation will not be a factor against their rivals in this one. Also, the Wolverines have two full weeks to prepare for Michigan State, which is a huge advantage. They should be in a good frame of mind after showing a lot of guts last time out in beating Penn State 18-13.

This Michigan team is not as bad as its 3-4 record would indicate. It has actually outgained five of its seven opponents on the season, which is more of a sign of a 5-2 team rather than one that is 3-4. The Wolverines are giving up just 21.4 points and 301.0 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Their stop unit is good enough to keep this Michigan State offense in check, which should help it cover the 17-point spread.

While Michigan State also has one of the top defenses in the country, surrendering 292.7 yards per game, this stop unit has looked vulnerable at times. The Spartans allowed 46 points to Oregon and 31 to Purdue. They are giving up 21.6 points per game this season against a relatively soft schedule. Michigan has played a much more difficult slate of games, which makes its defensive numbers that much more impressive.

After winning five of the last six meetings in this series, I could easily see Michigan State overlooking Michigan and looking ahead to its next game against Ohio State.  I actually believe this game means more to the Wolverines, and quarterback Devin Gardner hasn't been shy about it.  "We're not thinking about ruining their season," Gardner said. "This is about us. I want to win this game as bad as I've wanted to win any game."

Even Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook believes this is going to be a close game, because it normally is no matter the circumstances.  "We could be 0-5 going into the game, they could be No. 1 in the country and it's going to be a tight game. You have that with rivalry games," said Cook. "I don't think we overlook them at all, and I don't think they overlook us."

Brady Hoke is 15-2 ATS in road games after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in the last game in all games he has coached. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. The Spartans are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Michigan State had been undervalued in this head-to-head rivalry over the past seven seasons. Now, those roles are reversed and Michigan isn’t getting the respect it deserves as a 17-point underdog heading into the 2014 meeting.  Roll with Michigan Saturday.

10-25-14 San Jose State +9 v. Navy 31-41 Loss -110 22 h 17 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Jose State +9

I have been very impressed with how well San Jose State has played in its last three games following blowout road losses to both Auburn and Minnesota, who each have just one loss on the season.  I believe the Spartans are fully capable of staying within single-digits of Navy, and they will have a great chance of pulling off the upset Saturday as well.

Sure, they did lose 10-21 to Nevada at home, but a closer look at the box score shows that they dominated that game and should have won.  They outgained the Wolf Pack 446-256 for the game, or by 190 total yards.  They went on to outgain UNLV 542-221 in a 33-10 home win and to outgain Wyoming 471-277 in a 27-20 (OT) road win.

In these three games, they have averaged 486.3 yards per game and have given up 251.3 yards per game, outgaining their opponents by an average of 235 yards per game.  If that's not domination, I don't know what is.  So, they are playing their best football of the season heading into the Navy game and should be getting more respect from oddsmakers.

Navy is just 3-4 on the season and clearly down this year.  It has lost to Ohio State by 17, Rutgers by 7, Western Kentucky by 9 and Air Force by 9.  Its three wins have come against Temple by 7, Texas State by 14 and VMI by 37.  Really, the only Navy blowout this season came against VMI, which was expected because the Midshipmen were 38-point favorites.  The Midshipmen only outgained Texas State by 27 total yards and shouldn't have won by 14.

This will be the fourth meeting between these teams over the last four years.  The first three have all been close with SJSU winning 27-24 at home in 2011, SJSU winning 12-0 on the road in 2012, and Navy winning 58-52 (OT) in 2013.  The Spartans have really dominated the box score in all three games, outgaining the Midshipmen by 121 total yards in 2011, 244 total yards in 2012, and 122 total yards in 2013.  Expect SJSU to hold its own in the box score again in this one and for the game to go right down to the wire.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN JOSE ST) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) are 59-22 (72.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Navy is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the last three seasons.  SJSU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.  SJSU is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 road games overall.  Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Roll with San Jose State Saturday.

10-25-14 North Carolina +7 v. Virginia 28-27 Win 100 22 h 47 m Show

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina +7

North Carolina finds itself in pretty much the exact same position as last season.  Last year, it bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win six of its final seven games capped by a bowl victory.  The Tar Heels just snapped a four-game slide by rallying past Georgia Tech 48-43 last week.

Perhaps the real turning point came a week earlier when the Tar Heels went into Notre Dame and gave the previously unbeaten Fighting Irish all they wanted and more.  They only lost that game 43-50 as 16.5-point underdogs.  We all saw that Notre Dame probably should have beat defending champion Florida State on the road last week, so that 7-point loss to the Irish was nothing to laugh about.

Obviously the Tar Heels have a terrible defense and are being asked to put up big numbers offensively to stay in games, which is a concern.  The thing is that they are fully capable of winning shootouts, which they showed last week against Georgia Tech.  They are averaging 38.7 points and 452.3 yards per game on the season.  Marquise Williams is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,776 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also pacing the team with 448 rushing yards and four scores.

Virginia is a team that I had pegged as underrated coming into the year, and that has proven to be the case.  The Cavaliers have opened 4-3 and will push for a bowl game this year.  However, their four wins have come against the likes of Richmond, Louisville, Kent State and Pittsburgh all at home.  Plus, those two wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh came by a combined 7 points.

I believe the Cavaliers are now overvalued heading into this game, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown over the Tar Heels to beat us is asking too much.  They don't exactly have the most explosive offense.  If you take out the Richmond and Kent State wins, they have only topped 24 points one time in their other five games.

This has been a one-sided series in recent years.  North Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Virginia with wins by 31, 24, 11 and 34 points, respectively.  The Tar Heels are outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 25 points per game in the last four meetings.  The beat the Cavaliers 45-14 at home last year as 11.5-point favorites.

Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more passing yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. incredible offensive teams that average 37 or more points per game.  Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Again, the Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing UNC.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

10-25-14 Rutgers +20 v. Nebraska 24-42 Win 100 21 h 17 m Show

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +20

This is a very big number that the books are asking the Cornhuskers to cover. While I’m not going to say Rutgers is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, I certainly believe they are better than they get credit for. They have shown that by going 5-2 already this season despite having their win total set at roughly 3.5 games coming into the year. This team is no joke, but they are getting treated like it with this line.

The reason this line is so big is because Nebraska blew out Northwestern by 21 points on the road last week, while Ohio State blew out Rutgers by 39 points at home. Those results have created some serious line value here on the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern actually held a 17-14 lead at halftime over Nebraska before laying down after intermission. Ohio State is rolling everyone right now, so that 39-point win isn’t that much of a surprise.

Rutgers had been 5-1 prior to the Ohio State game with its only loss coming to Penn State by a field goal. It had beaten the likes of Washington State, Navy and Michigan. What I like about this Rutgers team is that it has a very good defensive line that won’t be overmatched by Nebraska’s offensive line. The Huskers have taken advantage of a schedule that has featured several overmatched defensive lines outside of Michigan State. That’s why Ameer Abdullah is having such a big season to this point.

Rutgers has a better offense than it is getting credit for. It is putting up 27.7 points and 415.0 yards per game against opponents that are only giving up 26.6 points and 368 yards per game. Quarterback Gary Nova is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,793 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.

After covering five straight games coming in, the Huskers are simply overvalued here. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Rutgers is 16-5 ATS-1 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cornhuskers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Rutgers Saturday.

10-24-14 BYU v. Boise State -7 Top 30-55 Win 100 61 h 0 m Show

20* BYU/Boise State Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boise State -7

I have been very impressed with the Boise State Broncos (5-2) in their first season under Bryan Harsin. One of their two losses this season came against Ole Miss, which is a national title contender. That was a 7-6 game entering the fourth quarter as the Broncos proved they could play with one of the best teams in the country.

Sure, they lost 14-28 to Air Force, but the Falcons are improved this season. Also, there’s no way the Broncos should have lost that game because they outgained them by 132 yards for the game.  They also committed a ridiculous seven turnovers to give the game away.

Statistically, Boise State is one of the most dominant teams in the country. It has only been outgained in one game this season, and that was by just 59 yards against Ole Miss. It has outgained its other six opponents. It has outgained five of those teams by 108 yards or more. On the season, it is outgaining the opposition by an average of 119.1 yards per game.

Boise State is averaging 485.0 yards per game of offense against teams that are giving up 402 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are limiting teams to 365.9 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 405 yards per game of total offense. To compare, BYU is giving up 388 yards per game against opponents that are only averaging 355 yards per game on offense.

Since losing star quarterback Taysom Hill midway through the Utah State game on October 3rd, the Cougars haven’t been the same team. They went on to lose to Utah State 20-35 at home, to UCF 24-31 on the road, and to Nevada 35-42 at home. I would certainly argue that Boise State is better than all three of those teams, which is why it should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown to cover the spread Friday night.

Hill was the one player that BYU could not replace. He made them an outside contender for the four-team playoff in all honesty as they had a great shot to run the table with him at the helm. Backup Christian Stewart is only completing 55.0 percent of his passes compared to Hill’s 67.2 percent. Stewart only has 110 rushing yards while averaging 3.1 per carry, compared to Hill’s 463 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry.

As losses in each of their last three games have shown, the Cougars are only an average team without Hill running the show.  While the offense clearly hasn't been as good without Hill, the BYU defense may be just as big of a concern.  The Cougars have allowed 31 or more points in four straight games.  It's not like they have faced elite offenses, either.  

I wouldn't consider Virginia, Utah State, UCF or Nevada elite.  However, I would consider Boise State's offense elite as it has scored 34 or more points on five different occasions this year.  Another thing to consider here is that BYU has turned the ball over two or more times in all but one game this season.  They are very careless with the football with 16 turnovers this season, which is another reason this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

Boise State is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game. BYU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after playing its last game at home. Boise State is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Broncos are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in four consecutive games. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Boise State Friday.

10-23-14 Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 Top 30-6 Loss -112 37 h 51 m Show

25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +3

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back Virginia Tech as an underdog in Blacksburg. Frank Beamer has gone 133-37 at home in his 28 seasons with the program. Lane Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, giving the Hokies one of the best home-field advantages in the nation. I don’t believe that home stadium is getting enough credit here with the Hokies listed as the underdogs.

Virginia Tech is a much better team than its 4-3 record would indicate. All three of its losses this year have come by a touchdown or less, while all four of its wins have come by 14 points or more. That includes perhaps the most impressive win of the season in all of college football. The Hokies went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory as 10-point underdogs back on September 6th.

Miami is every bit as bad as its 4-3 record would indicate. It is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, losing all three road games by double-digits to Louisville (13-31), Nebraska (31-41) and Georgia Tech (17-28). The Hurricanes have no business being the favorite in this contest when you look at their home/away discrepancy. Al Golden is just 18-33 on the road as a head coach, including 8-11 at Miami.

Brad Kaaya is the future of Miami at quarterback.  He is a very talented player, but has done most of his damage at home this year.  Kaaya has thrown 11 touchdowns against three interceptions at home, compared to five TDs and six picks on the road.  Also, wide receiver Phillip Dorsett has scored all six of his touchdowns at home.

Virginia Tech has dominated this series with Miami in recent years, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. It has won eight of the last 11 meetings, including three straight at home by an average of 19 points. Last year, the Hokies won 42-24 at Miami as 4.5-point underdogs. They dominated that game from start to finish, outgaining the Hurricanes 550-352 for the game. I look for this VA Tech defense to shut them down again.

The Hokies have one of the best stop units in the country. They are allowing just 20.0 points and 326.0 yards per game to rank 20th in total defense. What is most impressive about that is the fact that the Hokies’ seven opponents played so far are averaging 33.1 points and 435 yards per game on offense, so they are holding them 13.1 points and 109 yards per game below their season averages.

Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 conference games. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. Virginia Tech is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 Thursday games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

10-23-14 Connecticut +28 v. East Carolina 21-31 Win 100 36 h 49 m Show

15* UConn/East Carolina ESPNU Thursday No-Brainer on Connecticut +28

East Carolina is clearly overvalued right now after its impressive start to the season. It has beaten the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, while only losing to South Carolina by 10. It covered the spread in each of its first four games, and that was the point it started to become overvalued.

The Pirates failed to cover the spread the following week as 38-point favorites in a 21-point home win over SMU. As you probably know, SMU may be the worst team in the entire country. Then, last time out, they only won by 11 at South Florida as 16.5-point favorites. Now the books are asking the Pirates to win by four-plus touchdowns over the Huskies to beat us, and that’s simply asking too much.

Connecticut has played some very good teams, and it has yet to lose a game by four-plus touchdowns. It lost by 25 to BYU in the opener back when the Cougars had Taysom Hill and were rolling everyone. It also only lost to Boise State by 17 in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Huskies were only outgained by the Broncos 290-292 for the game.

In fact, the Huskies have only been outgained by more than 85 yards in two of their six games this season.  They have not been outgained by more than 158 yards in any game, and that effort came in the 25-point loss to BYU in the opener.  To win this game by more than four touchdowns, the Pirates are likely going to have to outgain the Huskies by 200-plus yards, and I just don't see that happening.

What gives the Huskies a chance to keep this game close is a defense that has played very well this season. Indeed, the Huskies rank 17th in the country in total defense, giving up just 325.0 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their six opponents thus far average 379 yards per game offensively, so they are holding them 54 yards per game below their season average.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has not been that great defensively. It is giving up 23.8 points and 363.8 yards per game against opponents that only average 22.9 points and 338 yards per game on offense this season. Admittedly, the Huskies have a poor offense this year, but they should be able to muster up enough points to stay within this 28-point spread. I also wouldn’t be surprised if ECU fails to top 28 points in this one, which is something they have failed to do in three of six games this year.

Connecticut is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 9 points or fewer in their last game. Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in its last six Thursday games. East Carolina is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games following a win. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thursday games. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.  Take Connecticut Thursday.

10-21-14 Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette +3 Top 40-55 Win 100 14 h 58 m Show

20* Arkansas State/UL-Lafayette No-Doubt Rout on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns (3-3) played a gauntlet of a schedule in the early going and did not look good. Their blowout road losses to both Ole Miss and Boise State were not fun to watch for fans of this program. However, they have responded with two straight victories since. After a lackluster performance in a 34-31 win over Georgia State, they put together their most complete performance of the season last week.

Lafayette rolled to a 34-10 road win at Texas State to improve to 2-0 within the conference. It racked up 528 total yards of offense while limiting Texas State to just 270 total yards. Terrance Broadway, who is probably the best player in the conference, threw for 225 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 113 yards in the win.

I simply believe that tough early-season schedule will have Lafayette battle-tested hitting on all cylinders in the Sun Belt. They were the favorites to win this conference coming into the season, and I see no reason why that should change now after their 2-0 start. It’s very surprising to see them as home underdogs here to Arkansas State, which is a solid team, but lacks the talent that Lafayette has to offer.

Last year, Lafayette rolled to a 23-7 win at Arkansas State in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Rajin’ Cajuns racked up 470 yards of offense while limiting the Red Wolves to just 168, outgaining them by a ridiculous 302 total yards. Broadway threw for 205 yards, while the team rushed for 265 yards in the win. That helped the Rajin’ Cajuns control the ball for over 42 minutes.

That result last year is important because of the players these two teams have coming back.  Lafayette returned 17 starters this season, while Arkansas State brought back just 12 starters.  These teams tied for the Sun Belt Title last year, but there's no question that the Rajin' Cajuns are the better team in 2014 with what they returned.  They are undervalued right now due to the slow start to the year outside of the conference.

Arkansas State is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Red Wolves are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Lafayette has won 8 of its last 9 home meetings with Arkansas State.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette Tuesday.

Note - I recommend buying Lafayette to +3 if you have the option but still would take them at +2.5.

10-18-14 Stanford -3.5 v. Arizona State Top 10-26 Loss -103 27 h 5 m Show

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford -3.5

Stanford (4-2) is a couple of 3-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame away from being undefeated on the season. Because this is just a 4-2 team right now, I believe it is undervalued at this point in the season. It should be a much heavier favorite on the road against Arizona State this week. Defense wins games, and there’s no question that the Cardinal have the superior stop unit in this one.

The Cardinal are limiting opponents to just 10.0 points and 238.0 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total defense. They held a high-powered Washington State offense to just 266 yards of total offense last week. They held USC to 291 total yards and should have won that game. They also limited Washington to 179 total yards and Notre Dame to 370 yards.

The Sun Devils only brought two starters back on defense this year, and the inexperience has shown. They are giving up 31.4 points and 452.6 yards per game to rank 102nd in the country in total defense. They have given up over 200 yards rushing in four consecutive games. They were even outgained by Colorado on the road 426-545 for the game and should have lost, but found a way to win 38-24.

The fact of the matter is that Arizona State simply is not that good this season. It is getting respect because of its fluke win at USC in which it needed a late touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail mary on the final play of the game to win. The more telling result about how bad this team really is was the 27-62 home loss to UCLA a few weeks back. Look for Stanford to put a similar beat down on the Sun Devils, just as they have done in recent meetings.

Indeed, Stanford is 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Arizona State. Last year, the Cardinal won 42-28 at home during the regular season in what was a 39-7 game entering the fourth quarter before the Sun Devils got some garbage points late to make the final score seem closer than it would appear. Then, in the Pac-12 Championship, the Cardinal rolled to a 38-14 victory while outgaining ASU 517-311 for the game.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (STANFORD) – off 3 or more consecutive unders, good team – outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Stanford is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. The Cardinal are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Stanford is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 conference games. The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Stanford Saturday.

10-18-14 Notre Dame +10 v. Florida State 27-31 Win 100 24 h 14 m Show

15* Notre Dame/Florida State ABC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10

The Florida State Seminoles (6-0) have been overvalued all season due to winning the national championship last year. That couldn’t be more evident when you look at how they have done against the spread. They only won by 6 over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point favorite, by 25 over The Citadel as a 56.5-point favorite, by 6 over Clemson as a 10-point favorite, by 15 over NC State as a 16.5-point favorite, and by 18 over Syracuse as an 23.5-point favorite. Their only cover came against Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate.

Notre Dame (6-) has been very impressive this season outside of last week’s win over North Carolina, which was an obvious letdown and lookahead situation. The Irish were coming off a huge win over Stanford the previous week, and they were clearly looking ahead to this game against Florida State. So, I’m willing to throw out that performance because it wasn’t a good spot for them mentally. I really like what I’ve seen from this team in their wins over Stanford (17-14), Rice (48-17) and Michigan (31-0).

I also like the performance the Irish put up against Syracuse (31-15), which gives them a common opponent with the Seminoles, who beat the Orange 38-20. The Irish outgained the Orange 523-429 for the game, but the score was closer than it should have been because Notre Dame committed five turnovers. The Seminoles outgained the Orange 482-412 in their 18-point win. That effort shows that there is very little difference between these teams, and that the 10-point spread has been inflated.

Notre Dame has played the tougher schedule this season, which makes it even more impressive that it has nearly identical statistics to Florida State on the year. The Irish are averaging 34.5 points and 444.3 yards per game on the season, and giving up 17.2 points and 348.3 yards per game. They are outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game and outgaining them by 96 yards per game. Florida State is outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game and outgaining them by 104.2 yards per game.

Everett Golson is now 16-1 as a starter at Notre Dame.  The only loss was against Alabama in the 2012-13 BCS Championship Game.  I like his moxy and his ability to just get it done.  He served a suspension in 2013 and was able to work on his craft.  He has been a better player this year as a result.  He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 209 yards and four scores in 2014.

Florida State, on the other hand, is dealing with the Jameis Winston situation.  He signed a bunch of autographs and the NCAA is looking into whether or not he was paid for them.  While Winston is expected to play this week, this is a huge distraction for the team and one that will work against them heading into this game against Notre Dame.  It takes some of the focus away from the game and there's no way that can be a good thing for the Seminoles, who are fortunate to still be undefeated this year.

The Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 450 or more yards per game. Notre Dame is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 October road games. Brian Kelly is 26-12 ATS as an underdog in all games he has coached. Kelly is 18-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better in all games he has coached. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

10-18-14 Nebraska v. Northwestern +7 Top 38-17 Loss -115 24 h 15 m Show

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern +7

The Nebraska-Northwestern series has been one of the most exciting in all of college football since the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011. All three games have been decided by a total of seven points, with the Huskers winning two. Last year, the Huskers won 27-24 thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. You can bet the Wildcats have had this game circled and will be looking for revenge in 2014.

In 2012, Nebraska rallied from 12 down in the final period to match the biggest fourth-quarter comeback in school history for a 29-28 win in Evanston. In their first meeting in 2011, Northwestern went into Lincoln as a 17-point underdog and came away with a 28-25 victory. There is a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, meaning there is clearly value with the touchdown underdog here.

Northwestern (3-3) did not look good in the early going this season with home losses to both California and Northern Illinois. However, this has been a completely different team since. A 29-6 road win at Penn State followed by a 20-14 home win over Wisconsin proved that this team is for real. Then, last week, the Wildcats outplayed Minnesota on the road but lost 17-24. They outgained the Gophers 393-274 for the game and should have won.

Nebraska (5-1) could not have faced an easier schedule in its first five games of the season with four at home and just one on the road at Fresno State. We got a glimpse of how bad the Huskers are this year when they trailed Michigan State 27-3 entering the fourth quarter last time out. Sure, they only lost 22-27, but they got 19 garbage points in the fourth quarter to make the game appear closer than it really was.  Now they are getting too much respect because it looks like they played the Spartans close when they really did not.

This Wildcats defense is vastly improved from a year ago.  They are only giving up 17.5 points, 358.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season against teams that are averaging 26.6 points, 404 yards and 5.6 per play.  They limited Penn State to 266 total yards and Minnesota to 274 total yards.  They also held Wisconsin to 14 points, which is no small feat.

Northwestern is 43-26 ATS in its last 69 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Bo Pelini is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Nebraska.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

10-18-14 Tennessee +17 v. Ole Miss Top 3-34 Loss -110 103 h 12 m Show

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +17

The Tennessee Volunteers (3-3) are extremely close to being 5-1 on the season. They have three blowout wins over Utah State, Arkansas State and Chattanooga. Their only blowout loss came at Oklahoma by a final of 10-34, but even that game was closer than the final score would indicate. Their 32-35 loss at Georgia and their 9-10 loss to Florida show that this team is vastly improved from last season and capable of beating any team in the SEC on their best day.

I really do believe the Volunteers have a chance to pull the upset here, let alone stay within 17 points. That’s because Ole Miss is in a very tough spot. It is getting all kinds of recognition nationally with a No. 3 ranking off wins over Alabama and Texas A&M. This is the definition of a trap game, because the Rebels have LSU and Auburn on deck over the next two weeks. I don’t expect them to come with their best effort against the Volunteers here.

They catch a Tennessee team that is desperate for a conference victory after losing its first two SEC games by a combined four points against quality competition. Butch Jones already has his players believing that they can beat anyone, and an upset like this would only affirm that belief. This is clearly Jones’ best team yet with the job he has been able to do in recruiting by going toe-for-toe with the big boys the last two years.

Sure, Ole Miss’ 35-20 win at Texas A&M last week appears impressive, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was very fortunate to come away with a win, let alone a 15-point triumph. Indeed, the Aggies actually outgained the Rebels 455-338 for the game, but they committed three turnovers to essentially give it away. Only amassing 338 yards against a poor Texas A&M defense is a very bad result for this Ole Miss offense.

The Volunteers have a real shot of limiting this Ole Miss offense, which will help them stay within the 17-point spread. They are only giving up 19.2 points and 316.3 yards per game on the season to rank 16th in the country in total defense. That is even more impressive when you consider the six opponents that they have faced are averaging 30.9 points and 391 yards per game on the year, so they are holding them to roughly 12 points and 75 yards below their season averages.

Tennessee is 13-1 in its last 14 meetings with Ole Miss dating back to 1984. Plays on a road team (TENNESSEE) – after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games are 186-109 (63.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Volunteers are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 October road games.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

10-18-14 Oklahoma State +10 v. TCU 9-42 Loss -105 21 h 44 m Show

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +10

I have been one of the biggest TCU (4-1) supporters coming into the season and early into the 2014 campaign. I predicted that they’d win the Big 12, and they have not disappointed up to this point. They beat Oklahoma and then had a 21-point lead against Baylor last week, only to give it up in the fourth quarter and lose by a final of 58-61. They covered in that contest to improve to a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their five games in 2014.

They were undervalued up until this point and I capitalized by backing them each of the last two weeks. However, I’m going the other way this week simply because this is a bad spot for TCU, and now it is finally getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Horned Frogs should not be favored by double-digits in this matchup against Oklahoma State (5-1).

The Frogs are in a huge hangover spot here from that loss to Baylor, and I look for them to come out very flat. It’s simply going to be too tough to get up emotionally for the Cowboys after playing two juggernauts like Oklahoma and Baylor in back-to-back weeks. They will struggle to win the game, let alone win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this lofty spread.

The Cowboys come in undervalued this week after only beating Kansas 27-20 on the road last week as an 18-point favorite. They haven’t been world beaters this season, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better than they were perceived to be coming into the year. Their only loss came to defending national champion Florida State by a final of 31-37 as 18.5-point underdogs. That effort alone showed that they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State has dominated TCU in its two meetings as Big 12 opponents. It won 36-14 at home in 2012 as a 7-point favorite while racking up 471 yards of total offense. It also won 24-10 at home last year as a 6-point favorite while putting up 415 yards of offense. The Cowboys won by 14 despite committing four turnovers because they held TCU to just 325 yards and forced four turnovers themselves.

The Cowboys have scored 20 or more points in 58 consecutive games dating back to the start of the 2010 season.  That's the longest active streak in the country and the second-longest in FBS history (USC, 2002-06).  It's also worth noting that TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin underwent surgery this week to repair a wrist injury.  Sure, he's probable to play, but a hurt wrist is not something you want your starting quarterback dealing with on the football field.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TCU) – off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992. This trend just shows that it’s tough for even good teams to bounce back from a tough loss on the road. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss. The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

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