15* Utah/Arizona State Pac-12 BAILOUT on Utah -6

The Utah Utes (7-2) have everything to play for right now.  The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) don't have the same luxury.  That's why I'm willing to lay the 6 points on the road with the Utes tonight knowing that they are going to bring max effort into Tempe, AZ.

Utah has a chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time in program history.  If they win out, they would at worst finish in a three-way tie with Colorado and USC.  And they'd have the tiebreaker over both of those teams in the South Division, likely moving on to face Washington in the title game.

This Utes team could arguably be 9-0 right now.  They only lost 23-28 at Cal after a goal line stand by the Bears late. They also showed what they were made of by going toe-to-toe with Washington last time out, losing 24-31 at home as 10-point underdogs.

The Utes have outgained six of their nine opponents this season, and they were only outgained by 10 yards by USC, by 20 yards against Arizona and by 9 yards against Washington.  Those are some impressive numbers as they've been able to win the box score in most of their games, and haven't been outmatched once.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which has been dominated in the box score of late.  After outgaining their first three opponents in Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and UTSA, the Sun Devils have been outgained in all six of their Pac-12 games, and five times by at least 168 yards at that.

With those numbers, the Sun Devils are lucky to be 2-4 in Pac-12 play as they arguably should have lost all six games.  They are only averaging 329.8 yards per game and giving up 543.8 yards per game in Pac-12 play, getting outgained by a whopping 214 yards per game in conference action this season.

Utah is led by surprise returnee running back Joe Williams, who has rushed for 683 yards and six touchdowns in three games since ending a self-imposed retirement on Oct. 11. Williams returned after injuries to the Utes' three top rushers, who were attempting to replace NFL draft choice Devontae Booker.

Utah has built its record with strong defense and special teams play, too. The Utes are tied with Memphis for the FBS lead with 23 takeaways, on 15 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. They also lead the FBS in net punting.

Arizona State has had a lot of trouble keeping opponents at bay. The Sun Devils have given up 513.6 yards total offense per game, which ranks 124th out of the 128 FBS programs. They have given up 36.6 points a game, which ranks 115th.

The Utes are 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 13.2 points per game on average.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Toledo/Northern Illinois UNDER 71

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies.  I fully expect this game to go well UNDER this 71-point total in a defensive battle tonight.

This is a huge rivalry game as the MAC has so often come down to which team wins this game.  Toledo is tired of losing to Northern Illinois as it has lost six straight in this series.  But four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less, so they just haven't been able to win close games.

And looking at recent scores in this head-to-head series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 55, 52, 51 and 59 points.  That's an average of 54.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 71.

Toledo is very good on defense as it gives up just 22.8 points per game this season.  Northern Illinois is playing much better on that side of the ball of late, giving up just 20.3 points, 378.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play over its past three games.  The Huskies held Buffalo to 7 points and 338 yards and Bowling Green to 20 points and 314 total yards in its last two games, respectively.  And three games ago, NIU was tied 21-21- with Central Michigan at the end of regulation before double-overtime.

Toledo is 14-2 UNDER in its last 16 road games after rushing for 275 or more yards in its previous game.  The Rockets are 8-1 UNDER in November games over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 November games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan PK

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are one win away from becoming bowl eligible at 5-4 on the season.  That's a huge deal for a team that has won two or fewer games in four consecutive seasons, and one that hasn't been to a bowl game since 1987.

After missing a golden opportunity last time out on October 29th in a 15-28 home loss to Miami Ohio, I look for the Eagles to take advantage tonight.  Plus, that's a very good Miami team that is proving to be one of the best in the MAC.  But now the Eagles get to face one of the worst teams in the conference in Ball State.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in MAC play this season with their only victory coming against Buffalo, which is the worst team in the conference.  Ball State was beating by 10 at home by Akron and by 32 at home by Western Michigan in its last two games.

After playing a huge game against unbeaten Western Michigan last Tuesday, I don't expect the Cardinals to be up for Eastern Michigan this week.  And EMU has an advantage in rest and preparation because it last played on Saturday, October 29th.  The Eagles will be putting all their eggs in one basket here to try and get bowl eligible.

Eastern Michigan has covered the spread against the two best teams in the MAC, proving that they can play with them.  They lost 20-35 at home to Toledo as 20.5-point dogs and 31-45 on the road at Western Michigan as 26-point dogs.  And WMU is their only common opponent with Ball State, which lost to the Broncos by 32 at home last week.

Eastern Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Ball State and yet has still put up better numbers.  The Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  Ball State is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.3 yards per play on defense.

Ball State relies heavily on the run, averaging 235 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But EMU has been stout against the run, giving up 152 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  The Cardinals give up 296 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt.  The Eagles rely on the pass, averaging 282 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt through the air.  So this is a great matchup for them on both sides of the ball.

Ball State is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 15.6 points per game in this spot.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

15* Alabama/LSU CBS Saturday No-Brainer on LSU +8

The LSU Tigers clearly have new life under interim coach Ed Orgeron.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards, beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards, and beat Ole Miss 38-21 and outgained them by 191 yards.

Now the Tigers are coming off their bye week and have their 'game of the year' here against Alabama.  If they win this game, they can still win the SEC West and possibly make the four-team playoff if they win out.  After all, their two losses came by a combined 7 points on the road to Wisconsin and Auburn, so this is very close to being an 8-0 team.

According to the NFL scouts, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State are the three most talented teams in the country.  The Tigers didn't live up to that talent under Miles, but they certainly are under Orgeron.  They offense has been wide open the past three weeks, which has been the biggest difference.  The Tigers are averaging 41.7 points and 536.0 yards per game over this stretch.

LSU will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder after losing four in a row to Alabama.  But it's worth pointing out that Alabama is only 3-3 in its last six trips to Death Valley.  The three wins came by 6, 4 and 7 points.  And they needed late touchdowns to escape with victory in two of those.  So, the Crimson Tide haven't won by more than a TD in any of their last six trips to Baton Rouge.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, plus LSU's home-field advantage in a night game may be worth more than anyone in the country.  Defensively, they are very similar.  Alabama is holding opponents to 177 yards below their season averages, while LSU is holding foes to 174 yards below.

These teams have one mutual opponent in Ole Miss.  Alabama won by just five at Ole Miss with a 35-yard edge in total yards, while LSU won by 17 at home with a 190-yard edge.  The Crimson Tide do have a slight edge on offense, but as stated before LSU has been much better on this side of the ball since Orgeron took over.  They are finding creative ways to get Leonard Fournette the ball in space, which has been a big key.

LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 19.0 points per game in this spot.  Plays on a home team (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3

This is the perfect storm here.  Oklahoma State is coming off a massive 37-20 win over West Virginia last week as 5-point home dogs, exceeding expectations.  Kansas State is coming off a 31-26 win at Iowa State as 6-point favorites, failing to cover the falling below expectations.  That has kept this line lower than it should be.

But the 37-20 win over West Virginia was very misleading for the Cowboys.  They were actually outgained by 63 yards by the Mountaineers and held to 358 yards of total offense.  The difference was that Oklahoma State scored 17 points off of three WVU turnovers.  They needed only 21 yards to score those 17 points, so they were set up with short fields three times.

At the same time, Kansas State's 31-26 win at Iowa State was misleading as well.  The Wildcats led that game 31-10 in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  The Cyclones outscored them 16-0 in the fourth, including two fourth-down touchdowns, and a safety.  And that's the same ISU team that has gone 5-1 ATS in conference play while taking several teams down to the wire, including Oklahoma State on the road, and Baylor and Oklahoma at home.

The head-to-head history in this series really tells the story for me.  Home-field advantage has been huge.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the past three seasons.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.v

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +4

Arkansas was clearly gassed from playing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in a 3-week span.  That's why the bye last week came at the perfect time, and I believe the Razorbacks return home hungry for a victory here against the Florida Gators.

They will be extra motivated from their 56-3 loss at Auburn prior to the bye.  It was just a bad spot for them because Auburn was off a bye, while the Razorbacks were gassed.  And that loss is fresh in the mind of the betting public, which is why the Razorbacks are dogs here when they shouldn't be.  It has provided us some very nice line value in that respect.

Florida doesn't deserve to be playing points here.  It is overvalued due to its 6-1 start and No. 11 ranking the college football playoff.  But the Gators have played an extremely soft schedule this season, and just like last year, I look for them to get exposed down the stretch.

The Gators lost their final three games last year once the schedule got tougher and were blown out in all three games by FSU, Alabama and Michigan.  They still have road games remaining against Arkansas, FSU and LSU, so this season is likely to follow a similar script.

Arkansas will be the best team that Florida has faced, and Arkansas has played played at least four teams that are better than Florida.  The Gators have played only two true road games this season.  They only won 13-6 at Vanderbilt as 14-point favorites, and they lost 28-38 at Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs, which looks like a worse loss now than it did then.

The Gators have a very good defense, but their numbers are skewed because of their soft schedule.  They haven't faced an offense this season that ranks better than 50th (Tennessee) in efficiency.  And the Vols hung 38 points on them.  Arkansas' offense is legit and will be the best that Florida has gone up against this season.  And QB Austin Allen is healthy now with the bye after suffering an ankle injury against Auburn, which contributed to the blowout loss.

Arkansas is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Alabama, which is the best team in the country.  And the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide tougher than the 30-49 final would show.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which proved to be the difference.

Luke Del Rio may be back for Florida, but its offense is still awful.  The Gators only managed 231 total yards against Georgia last week in a 24-10 victory.  They are only averaging 399 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season, and keep in mind how soft their schedule has been when factoring in those numbers.

Arkansas is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse +27

This is a great spot to back the Syracuse Orange for a couple of key reasons.  The first is that the Orange are off their bye week, and it came at a great time because they were a little beat up.  They have extra time to prepare for Clemson, so their focus has been on the game plan all week.  Plus, they're hyped to play a Top 5 team.

"We really needed the bye," coach Dino Babers said. "You know, a lot of times when you have a bye, you start off the next game a little bit slower, but we really needed the time to heal. The Virginia Tech, the Boston College, the Connecticut, those were physical games, they really were, and we're banged up. We need our guys to get some rest. We need to go out and do some coaching. Our players need to work on their studies a little bit, and then we need to come back together and get ready for the last third of the season."

The second key reason to back Syracuse is that this is a huge hangover spot for Clemson.  The Tigers are coming off a 37-34 road win at Florida State.  They needed a 34-yard touchdown pass with 2:06 left to win that contest after coming back from behind in the closing minutes.

I don't expect the Tigers to be fully focused on Syracuse this week.  The Tigers are just worried about winning, not covering big numbers, because if they win out they are in the four-team playoff.  They don't need style points like some of these one-loss teams on the outside looking in.

The Orange have been on the improve under Babers.  They have outgained four of their last six opponents.  Their last two games really stand out.  The Orange beat Virginia Tech 31-17 as 23-point home dogs, outgaining the Hokies by 93 yards.

Then they went on the road and beat Boston College 28-20 as 3.5-point dogs, outgaining the Eagles by 246 yards in the process.  That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And it was an impressive effort as they were in a letdown spot off the Virginia Tech win, plus Boston College was coming off a bye week.

I really like this Syracuse offense, and it will be able to put some point up on Clemson.  Quarterback Eric Dungey is the real deal.  He's on pace to challenge or break a number of Syracuse records.  He is seventh nationally in passing yards per game (328.9) and has six 300-yard passing games.  Dungey has also rushed for 289 yards and six scores.

The bottom line is that Clemson just isn't as good as last year.  Five of its eight wins have come by a touchdown or less, including a 24-17 (OT) win over NC State in their last home game.  Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a three-touchdown underdog or more, including that outright win against VA Tech.

Syracuse has given Clemson trouble the past couple seasons.  The Orange only lost 27-37 as 30.5-point home underdogs last season.  They also only lost 6-16 as 16.5-point road dogs in 2014.  And this Syracuse team is better than those two versions.

Plays on road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 78-36 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Clemson is 1-12 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons.  It is only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.  Once again, they are being overvalued this late in the year.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland +31

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now.  They are the No. 3 in the country after their 8-0 start, but their schedule has been ridiculously easy to this point.  And now the expectations are through the roof, and I don't think they can live up to them here as 31-point favorites over Maryland.

I faded Michigan last week with success as I took Michigan State +24.5, and the Spartans were always covering in a 23-32 home loss.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in their last two games now as they also didn't cover as 40-point favorites in a 33-point win over Illinois the week prior.

Now we're seeing the Wolverines being asked to lay 31 points to Maryland.  And Maryland just beat Michigan State 28-17 a couple weeks ago.  I would argue that Maryland will be one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season, which just shows how easy the Wolverines' schedule has been.

Maryland is off to a 5-3 start this season.  And the Terrapins are actually 5-1 in games in which senior QB Perry Hills has started and finished, averaging 472 yards of offense in those games.  He got hurt in a loss to Penn State, and he didn't play the following week in a loss to Minnesota.

Hills has thrown 10 touchdowns against three interceptions on the season.  He has also rushed for 136 yards and four scores.  The Terrapins have two running backs who are just big plays waiting to happen.  Sophomore Ty Johnson has rushed for 624 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 10.4 per carry, while true freshman Lorenzo Harrison has rushed for 574 yards and five scores at 7.3 per carry.

There is a really nice coaching angle that gives the Terrapins the advantage.  DJ Durkin was Michigan's defensive coordinator last season.  So he knows Michigan's offensive schemes, and he will use that to his advantage here.  That angle alone is going to make this a closer game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Michigan is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  The Terrapins are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.  Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Maryland Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +7

The Wisconsin Badgers have to be running out of gas.  They have played three teams in the past month who are currently ranked in the Top 10 in Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska.  And they also played one of their biggest rivals in Iowa.  I think we could see the emotional and physical effects of those games hamper them this week, especially after needing OT to beat Nebraska last week.

Northwestern comes in playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite being dogs in three of those.  It won 38-31 as 11-point dogs at Iowa, 54-40 as 6-point dogs at Michigan State, and 24-14 as 3-point home favorites over Indiana.

But perhaps Northwestern's most impressive performance of the season actually came in a loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-24 at Ohio State as 26-point dogs.  They played the Buckeyes toe-to-toe and you really couldn't tell who the better team was if you watched that game.  The Wildcats put up over 400 yards of offense on Ohio State and were only outgained by 25 yards.

I think that effort will give them the belief that they can win the Big Ten East, instead of suffering a hangover.  And if they're going to win the division, they need to beat Wisconsin here.  They are only one game back of Nebraska and hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, and would hold the tiebreaker with Wisconsin with a win.

Northwestern has been a thorn in Wisconsin's side over the past two seasons.  It won 20-14 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2014, and 13-7 as 12-point road dogs in 2015.  The Wildcats clearly have the Badgers' number in holding them to a combined 21 points the past two years.  And this Wisconsin offense is terrible once again this season, which is why it cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.  Not to mention the Badgers have several key injuries on defense.

Pat Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Northwestern.  The Wildcats are beating teams by 9.2 points per game in this situation, which has never lost.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Badgers.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -6.5

This game will be played at a neutral site at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, home of the Jaguars.  It is the first game off the board Saturday with the kick set for 11:30 AM EST.  I fully expect a Notre Dame blowout over Navy to get things started.

Notre Dame still needs three more wents to get to a bowl game.  It still has to play at USC in the season finale, which is probably going to be a loss.  So that means these next three games are essentially must-wins against Navy, Army and VA Tech.

Last week was also a must-win, and Notre Dame beat Miami 30-27 at home.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Fighting Irish outgained the Hurricanes by 105 total yards.  The Hurricanes scored 14 points off of two Notre Dame fumbles that made that game closer than it really was.  This was a 20-0 game in the second quarter.

It's worth noting that Notre Dame had a bye before Miami.  It was well-placed on purpose because Notre Dame has Navy and Army in consecutive weeks in its next two games.  You can bet that the Fighting Irish used at least part of the bye week to prepare for the triple-option.  That's a key here that is getting overlooked.

Notre Dame clearly isn't as bad as its 3-5 record would indicate.  All five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less, so they've had a chance to win every game they've played in.  And the defense has been much better since changing coordinators.

In their last three games, the Fighting Irish have only given up an average of 18.0 points per game, 266.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  And the points are skewed.  They gave up a punt block TD against NC State, an INT return TD against Stanford, and two fumbles setting up two Miami TDs.  So they've given up four TDs over the past three weeks that weren't the defense's fault.

Navy is overrated right now due to home wins over Houston and Memphis recently.  But Houston went on to lose by 22 to SMU, while Memphis went on to lose by 29 to Tulsa.  So, both of those wins don't look nearly as good as they did when they happened.

Last week, Navy trailed by as much as 31 at South Florida.  But the Bulls packed it in and let Navy score four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  This wound up being a 7-point win by USF, but it was a much bigger blowout than that.

I believe Notre Dame is the best team that Navy will have faced this season.  And the Fighting Irish clearly have a huge edge in talent in this game.  The Game of the Year line by Golden Nugget before the season was Notre Dame favored by 14, so we're getting over a touchdown of value here based on preseason expectations.

Notre Dame has owned Navy of late, winning five straight meetings with four of those coming by double-digits.  And the Fighting Irish have been favored by at least 13.5 in all five meetings over the past five seasons.  So this 6.5-point spread is a discount this week with supremely talented Notre Dame laying less than a touchdown.

Navy is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season.  Its only win came at Tulane by 7 as 7-point favorites.  It lost to Air Force by 14 and to USF by 7, though as stated before that was a misleading final.  Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 8 or more yards per attempt.

The Midshipmen are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games overall.  Brian Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play as the coach of Notre Dame.  His teams are winning by 20.2 points per game on average in this spot having never lost.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Temple/UConn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Temple -10

The Temple Owls are in position to win the AAC East division.  They are 4-1 in the conference, tied with South Florida atop the standings.  They hold the tiebreaker, too, so they essentially control their own destiny.  With that goal in mind, they'll be laying it all on the line tonight against UConn.

The Owls simply get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 ATS this season after killing it last season against the spread as well.  They have covered eight straight games since a fluke opening loss to Army.  And they are getting better and better as the season has gone one.

When you look at the numbers, Temple should be better than 6-3 straight up.  It has actually outgained eight of its nine opponents this season with the lone exception coming in a 27-34 road loss at Penn State.  The last four games have been super-impressive.

Temple lost 27-34 at Memphis despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and clearly should have won.  The Owls outgained UCF by 68 yards in a 26-25 road win the following week.  Then they came home and crushed USF 46-30 while outgaining them by 179 yards.  And they outgained Cincinnati by 288 yards in a 34-13 home win last week.

UConn is in a world of hurt right now.  It has lost three straight games with a 27-42 road loss at USF, a 16-24 home loss to UCF, and a 3-41 road loss at East Carolina last week.  Coach Bob Diaco fired his offensive coordinator after that performance against ECU.  He promoted his wide receivers coach, who has never been an offensive coordinator anywhere else before.

The fact of the matter is that a new WR coach isn't going to save this offense.  The Huskies are averaging just 18.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  QB Bryant Shirreffs has been terrible this season, and he's been the biggest problem.

Now the Huskies go up against a Temple defense that has been dominant once again.  The Owls are only giving up 22.7 points, 306 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 5.2 points and 80 yards per game less than their season averages.

And this Temple offense has really taken off this year.  It is averaging 33.8 points, 405 yards per game and 5.9 per play against opponents that allow 28.5 points and 5.3 per play.  The Owls put up 531 yards against Memphis, 518 against South Florida and 474 against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  They have rushed for 275 and 319 yards in their past two games, respectively.

Temple has blown UConn out of the building the past two seasons.  It won 27-3 last year as 13.5-point home favorites.  It also won 36-10 as 6-point road favorites in 2014.  More of the same can be expected this season, especially with what's at stake for the Owls.

UConn is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the past two seasons.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo +20

Just bet the road team in Ohio games.  It has been that simple.  Indeed, the road team is 9-0 ATS in Ohio games this season.  The Bobcats have gone 5-0 ATS on the road, but 0-4 ATS at home.  And they are certainly laying too many points at home here against Buffalo tonight as 20-point favorites.

Ohio lost at home 54-56 as 17-point favorites to Texas State in the opener, and Texas State is terrible.  Ohio only beat Gardner Webb 37-21 at home as 30-point favorites.  The Bobcats only beat Bowling Green 30-24 as 11.5-point home favorites.  They also lost to Eastern Michigan 20-27 as 8-point home favorites.  They clearly can't be trusted at home.

I also don't like this spot for the Bobcats.  They are coming off a huge upset 31-26 win at Toledo as 15-point dogs last week.  Now they have a 1.5-game lead over Miami Ohio in the MAC East standings because they own the tiebreaker with the Redhawks.  So, they can lose this game and STILL be in first place in the division.  They won't be that motivated at all to face Buffalo tonight.

The Buffalo Bulls come in with a lot of confidence off their strongest performance of the season.  They beat Akron 41-20 at home last week as 19.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Zips by 212 total yards in what was every bit the dominant effort that the final score showed.  They racked up a season-high 518 total yards, including 378 rushing and 9.0 per carry in the win.

Buffalo beat Ohio 41-17 as 3-point home dogs last season.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Buffalo Thursday.

15* Toledo/Akron MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -10

The Toledo Rockets are 6-2 this season and clearly a top contender to win the MAC.  But if they want to win the conference, they're going to have to win out because Western Michigan likely isn't going to lose a game until these teams meet in the final week of the season.

The Rockets could easily be 8-0 as well.  Their two losses have come by 2 points at BYU and by 5 points against Ohio.  They lost to Ohio last week and will certainly be hungry to bounce back from that defeat here, adding to their motivation.

What impresses me the most about the Rockets is the fact that they have outgained all eight opponents this season, including five by more than 100 yards.  Their offense is putting up 39.4 points and 544 yards per game, while their defense is giving up 23.5 points and 377 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per game and outgaining them by 167 yards per game.

Akron is very fortunate to be 5-4 this season.  The Zips have only outgained three of their nine opponents, and one of those was Virginia Military in the opener.  They outgained Ball State by 86 yards and Miami Ohio by 39 yards for the other two.

Akron is only gaining 401 yards per game on the season and giving up a whopping 483 yards per game, getting outgained by 82 yards per game on the season.  They cannot run the ball as they only average 135 yards per game on the ground, so they are losing the time of possession battle nearly 35 minutes to 25 minutes on average.

Two of Akron's last three games really stand out and make be believe that Toledo should have no problem covering this 10-point spread.  Akron lost 41-0 at home to Western Michigan and was outgained by 302 yards.  Then the Zips lost 20-41 at Buffalo while getting outgained by 212 yards last week.  Buffalo is the worst team in the MAC, too.

Toledo is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, so they've clearly had no trouble winning away from home.  Roll with Toledo Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +17

The Bowling Green Falcons have been improving big-time as the season has gone on.  But they still remain undervalued here as they are catching 17 points in this MAC rivalry game with the Northern Illinois Huskies.  It's simply way too much.

Each of Bowling Green's last four losses have come by 14 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer.  And I was super-impressed with two of those efforts on the road.  The Falcons haven't been outgained by more than 39 yards in any of their last four games.

Bowling Green only lost 24-30 at Ohio as 11.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 19 yards.  The Falcons then went to Toledo and lost 35-42 as 31.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 39 yards in that contest.

Northern Illinois is just 2-6 on the season and doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from oddsmakes.  But the Huskies come in undervalued due to easily covering as 24-point favorites in a 44-7 win over Buffalo.  But Buffalo is easily the worst team in the MAC this season.

The Falcons are going to be able to move the football on a Northern Illinois defense that hasn't been good at all this season.  The Huskies are giving up 33.5 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  That has been the biggest reason for their disastrous campaign thus far.

The Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bowling Green is 41-20-2 ATS in its last 63 road games overall.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +44

This play is almost exclusively about motivation, or lack thereof, for the Texas A&M Aggies.  They just played their 'Game of the Year' against Alabama last week, and they're not going to be motivated at all to face New Mexico State this week.  I look for them to suffer a big hangover here, and for them to fail to cover this massive 44-point spread because of it.

Not only is it a flat spot for the Aggies, but you know that Kevin Sumlin isn't going to be concerned with playing his starters for much more than a half if they get up big early.  So New Mexico State will have a chance to play close to an even game in the second half against Texas A&M's backups if the game gets away from them early.

Admittedly, New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in college football, but I actually like the direction that head coach Doug Martin has this team headed.  We've seen New Mexico State beat a very solid New Mexico team that made a bowl last year and is likely headed to a bowl again this year.  They were 11-point dogs in that game.  They also beat LA Lafayette 37-31 as 5-point dogs.

Some will look at the 52-6 loss to Troy and say that Texas A&M is the right side.  But a closer look shows that New Mexico State actually outgained Troy by 47 yards in that game, but gave it away by committing five turnovers.  And that's the same Troy team that nearly beat Clemson earlier this season.  It was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I was really impressed with New Mexico State's 19-22 home loss to Georgia Southern as 13.5-point dogs last week.  The Aggies actually outgained the Eagles by 21 yards in that game.  Georgia Southern is one of the better non-Power 5 teams in the country.

What gives New Mexico State a chance to hang around in this game is their offense.  If I'm going to take a big dog like this, I like to know that they can at least score, and New Mexico State can.  It is actually averaging 432 yards per game against opponents that allow 406 yards per game, so this is actually an above-average offense.

New Mexico State features a passing attack that actually produces 300 yards per game.  Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has thrown for 2,008 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7.2 yards per attempt.  After missing the first three games due to injury, senior RB Larry Rose III has returned to rush for 281 yards over the past four weeks.  He has 12 receptions for 86 yards as well.

Texas A&M's defense gets a lot of hype for its improvement, but the numbers show that the Aggies are just a middle-of-the-pack defense.  They give up 439 yards per game and 262 passing yards per game.  Rogers should find plenty of success through the air to put up enough points to stay within this 44-point spread.

Plays against any team (TEXAS A&M) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Kevin Sumlin is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent as the coach of Texas A&M.  Sumlin has his work cut out for him this week.  The players realize their dreams of winning the SEC West are crushed after that loss to Alabama.  Beating New Mexico State isn't going to change that.  I don't expect Texas A&M to show up at all here.  Take New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a great spot here.  They are coming off their bye week, and they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday at home against Kansas State.  They'll also be motivated for their first Big 12 win of the season, and this is clearly their best chance to get it as Kansas State is one of the worst teams in the conference.

Keep in mind that Iowa State nearly beat Baylor and Oklahoma State a few weeks back.  The Cyclones blew a 42-28 lead in the fourth quarter as 17-point home dogs to Baylor and lost 42-45 on a last second field goal.  They led 31-14 as 14-point road dogs at Oklahoma State and gave up 24 unanswered points to lose 31-38.

Those two performances really showed what they were capable of.  And the next week they were leading Texas 6-3 on the road at halftime, but ran out of gas and lost 27-6.  The bye week couldn't have come at a better time because the Cyclones really needed it to rest and get healthy.  They won't be running out of gas this week against Kansas State as they'll be ready for a big performance for four quarters.

That's especially the case considering they want revenge from last year's 35-38 road loss at Kansas State.  They led that game 35-14 and gave up 24 unanswered points over the final two quarters.  They fumbled with under two minutes to go when they could have kneeled on the ball and won.  Kansas State took advantage and tied it with 42 seconds to go, then capitalized on another turnover and won it on a 42-yard field goal with 3 seconds left.

Kansas State's numbers in conference games have been horrible.  Despite going 2-2 straight up, they have actually been outgained 340.2 to 467.0 in conference play, or by an average of nearly 127 yards per game.  Their offense is only averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season against teams that give up 422 yards per game and 6.1 per play.  Their offense just doesn't allow them to win in blowouts, which is why the 6.5-point spread could easily come into play.

The head-to-head history in this series also shows that there's a ton of value with the home dog.  Indeed, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less.  The sick part about that is that Kansas State has won all eight.  The Cyclones are tired of it, and they finally should be able to do something about it this year now that they are in a great spot coming off their bye week.

The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings at Iowa State.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  First-year head coach Matt Campbell will have used this bye week to correct the mistakes, and I look for the Cyclones to continue to be a good bet moving forward, especially this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +13.5

I had five premium picks last Saturday, and Purdue and Penn State were two of them.  Purdue covered as 24-point dogs at Nebraska, while Penn State won outright as 19.5-point dogs against Ohio State.  So I feel like I have a good grasp on both of these teams.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Penn State off that big win over Ohio State.  The Nittany Lions have been getting patted on the back all week, and now I look for them to fall flat against Purdue here.  Keep in mind that Ohio State outgained Penn State by 94 yards in that game and should have won.  The Nittany Lions were the right side as 19.5-point dogs, but they should not have won outright as it took a miracle blocked FG returned for a TD.

James Franklin wasn't concerned with looking ahead to this game as he wanted to relish in the moment.  "Obviously these types of wins are important," Franklin said. "To be honest with you, I don't want to spend a lot of time thinking about the big picture right now, I just want to soak this all in. Nights like this don't happen very often."

I really like what I've seen from Purdue the past three games.  They won outright as 9-point underdogs at Illinois, they scored 35 points and put up over 500 yards of offense against Iowa in a 14-point loss, and they actually led Nebraska 14-10 on the road at halftime last week before losing by 13, easily covering as 24-point dogs.

Boilermaker quarterback David Blough leads the Big Ten in completions (173) and yards (2,065) and has already thrown 14 touchdown passes.  Senior receiver DeAngelo Yancey is coming off a big game against Nebraska with four catches for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  And the defense held Nebraska to just 27 points, including 157 rushing yards on 37 carries, which equates to 4.2 per carry.  It was their most impressive defensive performance yet.

Clearly the switch to interim head coach Gerad Parker last week has rejuvenated the Boilermakers.  He has instilled a more positive, upbeat approach.  I liked what he had to say after the narrow loss to Nebraska, and the fact of the matter is that at 3-4, the Boilermakers could legitimately still make a run at a bowl game.

"It was a fun run. We have to take that and build off of that so we become that same team the second half," Parker said. "It was a fun ride. You could see the belief in those kids' eyes. I think they know they let one fall through here. That's how they feel. It's going to be fun to coach them the rest of the weeks to try to get them to this point where they keep believing."

Penn State has benefited from playing three straight home games, all of which they have won, two of which have come by a field goal.  The other was a blowout win over a Maryland team that lost starting quarterback Perry Hills and could never recover.

But the Nittany Lions are 0-2 on the road this season, losing at Pittsburgh and at Michigan by 39 points.  In fact, they have lost their last seven true road games dating back to a November 18, 2014 victory at Indiana.  This team has been an awful road bet for years, and now they're being asked to lay nearly two touchdowns away from Happy Vally.

Penn State has only covered the spread in 3 of its last 19 road games.  It is 0-8 ATS on the road over the past three seasons alone.  Purdue is 7-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (PURDUE) - after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +33

The Louisville Cardinals are getting way too much love from the betting public right now.  This line actually opened at -25.5 and has jumped nearly 8 points to -33.  I felt the opener was about right, but now we're getting all kinds of value here with Virginia catching 33 at home.

Many think Louisville needs style points to make the four-team playoff, and while that is somewhat true, it's also overblown.  What is the difference between a 21-point win and a 35-point win against Virginia in the eyes of the playoff committee? The answer is not much at all, and it's more realistic that they win by 21 than 35.

I also think that the Cardinals are even more overvalued this week due to their 54-13 win over NC State last week.  But that was an awful spot for NC State, which was coming off a devastating overtime loss at Clemson.  The Wolfpack missed a short field goal that would have won that game.  They came out flat against Louisville and got pummeled.

Virginia is not going to come out flat.  It is looking forward to this opportunity to play one of the top teams in the country at home.  And I think the Cavaliers are being undervalued due to their 14-35 loss to UNC as 10.5-point dogs last week.  This line (-33) implies that Louisville is 23 points better than UNC, and I just don't think that's the case.

And that performance against UNC was by far the worst for Virginia in weeks.  In the four prior games, Virginia outgained UConn by 104 yards in a 10-13 road loss, beat Central Michigan 49-35 at home, won 34-20 at Duke, and outgained Pitt by 18 yards in a 31-45 loss that was a misleading final.  Pitt got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only gained 346 yards of offense.

Virginia had poor teams the past two years, yet still played Louisville tough.  The Cavaliers only lost 31-38 as 13.5-point road dogs at Louisville last year.  They also won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1992.  This system has actually gone a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past five seasons.

Virginia is 12-3 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, only losing by 7.3 points per game on average.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more yards in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Take Virginia Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +24.5

For starters, this is the biggest underdog that the Michigan State Spartans have been in this rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines since 1992.  Secondly, 22 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 24 points or less.  Those two facts alone show you just how much value there is on Michigan State here.

The betting public has bet Michigan from from -18.5 all the way up to -24.5 as of this writing on Thursday.  This is the perfect storm as the Wolverines could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now, while the Spartans couldn't be more undervalued heading into this game.

I always look to bet underdogs in rivalry games first, especially home underdogs.  But when these home dogs are getting more than 20 points, it's really a no-brainer.  I don't care what Michigan State has done to this point, the Spartans will show up for this game, and Mark Dantonio will have them ready to go.

The Spartans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games.  They have been favored in all five games, and the betting public has been killed by backing them, so they want nothing to do with them now.  But they weren't outplayed in any of those losses outside of BYU as they outgained two opponents and were only outgained by 15 and 21 yards in their two other losses.

In their only games as underdogs this season, the Spartans won outright 36-28 as 7.5-point road dogs at Notre Dame.  Dantonio absolutely relishes the role of the dog, and he takes this rivalry with Michigan very personally ever since they were called the 'little brother' several years ago.  He relays that message to his players as well.

Michigan State has risen to the occasion against Michigan over the past decade.  The Spartans are 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Michigan.  Their only loss came by a final of 10-12 in 2012 as 8.5-point road dogs.  The Spartans have won each of their last four home meetings with the Wolverines, including the last three in blowout fashion by 24, 23 and 14 points.

The Game of the Year line on this game released before the season was Michigan -2.  So this is a 22.5-point adjustment.  I agree that the Wolverines should be favored by more than 2 now after what we've seen, but this is too big of an adjustment.  I fully expect Michigan to win the game, but not by more than 24.5 points.

The Wolverines haven't been tested on the road yet.  Their only road game came against Rutgers, and Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten.  They've hardly been tested at all, really, because their schedule has been so soft.  The best team they played was Wisconsin, and they only beat them 14-7 at home.

Keep in mind that Michigan State actually outgained Wisconsin despite losing by 24 in what was a very misleading final.  This will be Michigan's biggest test of the season to this point in my opinion, especially since it's on the road.

Dantonio is 6-0 ATS vs good passing defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game as the coach of Michigan State.  The Spartans have never lost int his situation under Dantonio.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Navy/USF ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Navy +6.5

The Navy Midshipmen have been one of the most underrated teams in college football last season. Many thought they would take a big step back with the loss of Keenan Reynolds, and then their opening day starting QB Tago Smith, but that simply has not been the case. Ken Niumatalolo has done a tremendous job.

Navy is off to a 5-1 start this season with its only loss coming on the road at Air Force. The last two games have really shown what the Midshipmen are capable of. They beat Houston 46-40 as 16-point home underdogs, and Memphis 42-28 as 1.5-point home favorites. Both Houston and Memphis were among the favorites to win the AAC this season.

The Midshipmen rushed for 306 yards against Houston and 447 yards against Memphis. Senior QB Will Worth has been phenomenal. He has rushed for a combined 316 yards over the past two games and four touchdowns, while also throwing four touchdown passes through the air without an interception.

South Florida is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. That was evident last week in a 30-46 loss at Temple as 5.5-point favorites. The Bulls were thoroughly outplayed in that game as the Owls outgained them by 179 yards. I have a feeling this team is running out of gas.

South Florida hasn’t had a bye week yet. The Bulls have played 8 straight weeks to open the season, and this will be their 9th straight. They showed signs of wearing down against Temple last week. Meanwhile, Navy has only played six games this season, so it is clearly the fresher team right now. And the Midshipmen had a bye before playing Memphis last week.

Making matters worse is that the injuries are piling up for the Bulls because of this brutal schedule to open the season without a bye week.  Quarterback Quinton Flowers suffered a hamstring injury last week against Temple, and even though he's expected to play tonight, he's not going to be the same dual-threat QB he normally is as he'll be operating at much less than 100%.  The Midshipmen won't have to worry about his legs as much as they would have otherwise.

This is a very bad matchup for the Bulls, who are giving up 206 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season. They allowed 319 rushing yards to Temple last week and 478 to Florida State earlier this season. The Midshipmen average 293 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground. They will try to break USF’s will this week and test their stamina with their triple-option attack.

Navy dominated South Florida in a 29-17 home victory last season. The Midshipmen racked up 444 total yards, including 428 rushing. They held the Bulls to just 270 total yards, outgaining them by 174 yards in the win.

The Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games versus poor rush defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game. Navy is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win. The Midshipmen are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Navy Friday.

20* VA Tech/Pitt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 61

This total just seems inflated to me because Pittsburgh has been a great over bet this season, going over the total in six straight games.  I look for them to be a great under bet going forward now that oddsmakers have over-adjusted.

Pat Narduzzi built his reputation on defense after serving as Michigan State's defensive coordinator for so many years.  You can bet that he is not liking what he's seeing out of the defense thus far.  And there's no question that defense was the focal point of the Panthers over the past two weeks as they had a bye last week.

That extra time and preparation from the bye week should work wonders for the Panthers' defense here.  And this defense has actually been improving of late as the points given up have been a bit skewed.  The Panthers are giving up 30.7 points per game over their last three games despite only giving up 359.7 yards per game.

Virginia Tech's defense has been elite all season.  The Hokies are only giving up 17.9 points, 302 yards per game and 4.4 per play against opponents that average 26.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they are holding foes to 8.5 points, 96 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

Both teams love to run the football, and both are stout against the run, making this a great matchup for both defenses.  VA Tech averages 48 rushing attempts per game compared to 29 pass attempts.  Pitt averages 47 rush attempts per game compared to 23 pass attempts.  These run-heavy approaches should keep the clock moving, which also favors the UNDER.

The Hokies average 198 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, but the strength of the Panthers defense is stopping the run as they give up only 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  The Panthers average 239 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry, but the Hokies only allow 104 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry.

The head-to-head history between these teams really stood out to me.  Pitt and VA Tech have combined for 52 or fewer points in their last four meetings over the past four seasons.  They have combined for 30, 37, 28 and 52 points in the past four meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 36.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 25 points less than this total of 61.

VA Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 10-1 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last three years.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Hokies last six road games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Panthers last eight games following a bye week.  The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Hokies last 51 conference games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Hokies last 26 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

Note: I released this UNDER 61 as soon as the total came out on Monday.  I figured it would move, and it has.  It's now down to 57 as of Tuesday afternoon.  I still recommend a 20* play on the UNDER all the way down to 55, so keep that in mind.

15* Ole Miss/LSU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on LSU -6.5

The LSU Tigers have new life under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.  They have played their two best games with him at the helm, and now they're chomping at the bit to get a shot at Ole Miss in Baton Rouge in front of a hostile Saturday night home crowd.

In their first game under Orgeron, they beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards.  In their second game last week, the beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards.

"You can see a little pep in their step. Guys are making plays, guys are having fun," Orgeron said this week. "I know they feel good about being 2-0."

Amazingly, LSU's offense went off even without Leonard Fournette.  That's because backup Derrius Guice is another future NFL back.  He has rushed for 564 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 9.1 per carry.  But now Fournette is coming back this week, and this is now arguably the best 1-2 RB punch in the entire country.

Danny Etling has done a good job since taking over as the starting quarterback.  He has thrown for 925 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt.  And this offense has been well above average as the Tigers are putting up 6.8 yards per play against opponents that only allow 5.5 per play.

There's no question LSU has a massive edge on defense.  It is giving up just 14.0 points per game against opponents that average 27.4 points per game.  Ole Miss is allowing 30.3 points per game against opponents that average 32.2 points per game.  The Rebels also allow 213 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry, so Fournette and Guice are primed to have huge games here.

I really question the mindset of Ole Miss now that is just 3-3 after falling to Arkansas 30-34 on the road last week.  Now the Rebels are essentially buried and have no shot at winning the SEC West, while LSU is right in the thick of the race and actually hosts Alabama in two weeks.  I just like the mindset of the Tigers a lot more than the Rebels heading into this one because of it.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that LSU want revenge from a 17-38 road loss at Ole Miss last year.  That game was far from the blowout that the score showed as LSU actually outgained Ole Miss 508 to 432 in that game.  Home-field advantage has meant a lot in this series as the home team has won four straight and six of the last seven meetings with the lone exception being an LSU 52-3 road win in 2011.

LSU is a perfect 18-0 straight up in its last 18 October home games.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Penn State Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +19.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a great spot here.  They are coming off a bye week, so they've had two full weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes.  They are going to be ready to play in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday night in Happy Valley at 8:00 EST.

The Buckeyes are more and more overvalued with each passing week following their 4-0 ATS start.  They failed to cover as 28.5-point favorites in a 21-point home win over Indiana.  Then, they survived an overtime scare from Wisconsin on the road as 10-point favorites last week in a 30-23 win.

Wisconsin took advantage of its bye coming into last week and arguably should have beaten Ohio State.  It actually outgained the Buckeyes by 39 yards for the game and poked some holes in that Ohio State defense.  The Badgers rushed for 236 yards and threw for 214 in the loss.

Penn State is 4-0 at home this season to improve to 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games overall.  That's what I would call a tremendous home-field advantage.  Yet, Penn State is now the biggest home underdog it has ever been this week.  That fact alone shows you that there is value with the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is clearly getting better.  After beating Minnesota 29-26 in their Big Ten home opener, they throttled Maryland 38-14 despite being 2.5-point underdogs last time out.  This game was every bit the blowout that the final score indicated.  The Nittany Lions outgained the Terrapins by 254 yards in that contest.

Penn State is vastly improved on offense this season.  It is putting up 30.5 points and 391 yards per game against opponents that only allow 22.5 points and 331 yards per game.  Its defense has also held its own in allowing 28.5 points per game against opponents that average 34.5 points per game.  And this defense is now getting a lot healthier after the bye week as injuries decimated them in the early going.

The Nittany Lions have played the Buckeyes tough at home recently.  They lost 24-31 (OT) in their last home meeting in 2014 as 14-point dogs.  They haven't lost by more than 17 points to Ohio State in any of their last three home meetings.  The home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

Trace McSorley is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for 186 yards and three scores.  Saquon Barkley is healthy now and starting to put up big numbers.  He's up to 582 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (PENN ST) - after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1992.  Take Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +24

The Purdue Boilermakers just fired head coach Darrell Hazell after last week's 35-49 loss to Iowa.  Hazell had the least successful run of any Boilermakers coach, going 9-33 overall and 3-24 in conference play.

The interim coach will be Gerad Parker, the wide receiver's coach and recruiting coordinator.  He will be auditioning for the job for the rest of the season and has an outside shot of getting this team to a bowl after a 3-3 start.  I always like backing teams off a coaching change because it gives them new life, and I believe that will be the case here.

After all, Purdue was showing some progress the past two weeks.  After winning 34-31 at Illinois as 9-point dogs two weeks ago, the Boilermakers gave Iowa all it wanted last week in a 35-49 home loss.  The Boildermakers racked up 505 yards on the Hawkeyes and were only outgained by 15 yards for the game.

David Blough had a career game with 458 yards and five touchdowns against one interception.  Nebraska is very familiar with Blough as he led the Boilermakers to a 55-45 home win over the Huskers last season.  He threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in that win.

Nebraska is overvalued right now after opening the season 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS through six games.  This is also a terrible spot for the Huskers.  They are coming off a big 27-22 road win at Indiana last week, and they have road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Huskers, and they likely won't bring the kind of focus to this game that it's going to take to beat Purdue by more than 24 points.

A couple weeks back Nebraska failed to cover as 20.5-point home favorites over Illinois in a 31-16 win.  I see this game playing out similarly, especially considering Purdue beat Illinois on the road two weeks ago.  And two years ago, Purdue lost 14-35 at Nebraska as 21.5-point dogs.  But that game was much closer than the final score as the Boilermakers actually outgained the Huskers by 43 yards.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 15.2 points per game on average in this spot.  The Boilermakers are 7-0 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  It is only losing by 7.8 points per game in this spot.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* Texas A&M/Alabama SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +18.5

Simply put, the No. 1 team is almost always going to be overvalued.  That's especially the case for Alabama this week because they have covered five of their seven games this season, including the last two.

The last game really stands out for public bettors.  Alabama beat Tennessee 49-10 as 13.5-point road favorites.  Well, that proved to be an awful spot for Tennessee.  The Vols were were playing the fourth straight game of a brutal four-week schedule that included narrow wins over Florida And Georgia, and a double-OT loss to Texas A&M.

Speaking of Texas A&M, this is clearly the second-best team in the SEC right now, and they are getting a whopping 18.5 points here.  And this spot couldn't be better for the Aggies.  They are coming off a bye last week following their win over Tennessee.  The two weeks to prepare for Alabama is a huge advantage that's getting overlooked in this line.

The Aggies have the type of team that can give the Crimson Tide trouble.  They have an elite defensive line that features the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall.  They also have a running quarterback in Trevor Knight, who was the QB for Oklahoma when the Sooners beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in 2014.

Knight is leading a Texas A&M offense that is putting up 40.2 points and 532.8 yards per game against teams that only allow 30.7 points and 431 yards per game.  Knight has thrown for 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 502 yards and nine scores while averaging 7.7 yards per carry.  His ability to use his feet will keep the Alabama defense honest.

One reason the Crimson Tide are so overvalued right now is that they are getting touchdowns from everywhere, which isn't likely to continue.  They have scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns this season with eight from their defense and three on punt return TDs.  That's one more than they had all of last year.  You can bet that protecting the football has been top priority in the last two weeks of preparation for the Aggies.

Texas A&M has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It went on the road and beat Auburn 19-16 as 1.5-point underdogs while outgaining the Tigers by 79 yards.  The Aggies also went into Arlington and beat Arkansas 45-24 as 7-point favorites and outgained the Razorbacks by 100 yards.  Alabama beat Arkansas by 19 and only outgained them by 44 yards.

Plays on road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams that win at least 80% of their games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 when the total is 56.5 to 63.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia +9.5

I can't help but think North Carolina is out of gas right now.  The Tar Heels haven't had a bye week, and now they'll be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  Their last four games were a 1-point win over Pitt, a 2-point win over Florida State, a 31-point loss to VA Tech and a 7-point win at Miami.

This is about as tough of a stretch as you're going to find in the ACC.  Now the Tar Heels probably feel like they have a break this week playing Virginia.  But that's not the case as Virginia is no pushover.

The Cavaliers have steadily improved as the season has gone on under first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  They beat Central Michigan by 14 at home and Duke by 14 on the road.  Then they had a bye week before losing to Pitt by 14 at home last week.

However, that game against Pitt was one of the most misleading final scores of the week.  The Panthers managed to score 45 points despite gaining just 346 total yards and getting outgained by 18 yards by Virginia.  The difference was a 93-yard kickoff return by Pitt in the 1st quarter and a 59-yard INT return TD with four seconds left before half.

So, Virginia went toe-to-toe with Pitt last week, which is the same Pitt team that only lost by one point to UNC on the road.  And the Panthers even blew a 13-point lead over the Tar Heels with five minutes to play.

This Virginia offense has really kicked it into high hear in its past three games.  It is averaging 38 points and 450 yards per game during this stretch.  QB Kurt Benkert has thrown for 1,733 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game.

Virginia is a sensational 12-2 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over this stretch.  The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight conference games, and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cavaliers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home meetings.  Take Virginia Saturday.

20* USF/Temple AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +6.5

The Temple Owls have outgained five of their seven opponents this season. The only exceptions were being outgained by 79 yards at Penn State and by 93 yards in their opener against Army. So, they have not been overmatched in any game they have played this season, and they certainly won’t be overmatched by South Florida at home Friday night.

I have been extremely impressed with Temple in its last two games. It lost 27-34 at Memphis as 9.5-point dogs despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and should have won, but committing three turnovers cost them in that contest. They also outgained a very good UCF team by 68 yards last week in a 26-25 road win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Owls boast an above-average offense that is averaging 32.0 points per game this season. Their defense is once again solid this season as they are holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 316.6 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.

South Florida is 6-1 this season and is overvalued right now because of its record. But like the Owls, the Bulls have outgained five of their seven opponents. They were outgained by 95 yards in a 45-20 win at Syracuse in one of the most misleading final scores of the season.

I would argue that two of the past three games were misleading finals as well. They only outgained Cincinnati by 61 yards in their 45-20 road win and ECU by 80 yards in their 38-22 home win. The Bulls also haven’t beaten anyone of any significance as they have been favored in all of their wins. The only exception was the 35-55 loss to Florida State at home. Temple will clearly be the second-best team that USF has played this season.

While the Bulls have a very good offense, their defense has left a lot to be desired this season. They are giving up 25.9 points, 436.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Teams have really had success against them on the ground as they are allowing 190 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Owls figure to have plenty of success as well. Since getting star RB Jahad Thomas back from injury, the running game has really clicked. The Owls have rushed for at least 197 yards in three of their past four games. Thomas is coming off a 127-yard effort against UCF and should have a big day here.

Temple is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. The Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Temple Friday.

25* CFB Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4

The Virginia Tech Hokies aren’t getting any love from oddsmakers after their 17-31 upset loss to Syracuse as 23-point favorite last week. But I was on Syracuse in that game knowing that it would be a flat spot for the Hokies after beating UNC on the road the week before, and having Miami on deck Thursday. So I’m willing to throw out that effort.

There’s no doubt the Hokies will be up for this game after that awful loss. First place in the Coastal Division is on the line, and Lane Stadium is going to be rocking. This is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and with what’s at stake, the Hokies will be ready for it.

It’s clear to me that Virginia Tech is for real. That Syracuse game was the first time it had been outgained all season. Don’t forget that VA Tech outgained Tennessee by 70 yards, but gave that game away by committing five turnovers. What proceeded was three straight blowout victories over Boston College (49-0), ECU (54-17) and at UNC (34-3).

That gives these teams a common opponent in UNC, which beat Miami on the road 20-13 last week. It was the second straight loss for the Hurricanes. They were outgained by the Tar Heels by 100 yards after getting outgained by 131 yards by Florida State in a 19-20 home loss the week before. Not to mention, the game before that Miami beat Georgia Tech 35-21, but was actually outgained in that contest and benefited from a bye week and two defensive touchdowns.

It’s clear to me that Miami has problems on offense that simply aren’t fixable. The offense managed just 355 yards against Georgia Tech and 21 points. They were held to 19 points and 276 total yards against Florida State. They were also limited to only 13 points and 363 total yards against a very bad North Carolina defense.

The Hokies have certainly taken care of business at home this season. They are 3-0 at home, putting up 46.3 points per game and giving up only 10.0 points, outscoring opponents by a whopping 36.3 points per game. Beating Boston College by 49 and East Carolina by 37 were certainly no small feats.

And Miami’s offense is likely to struggle again this week as it goes up against a VA Tech defense that is giving up just 18.2 points per game, 291 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. Coordinator Bud Foster’s unit is holding opponents to 7.1 points, 104 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

And this VA Tech offense is vastly improved this season under the guidance of head coach Justin Fuente, who worked wonders at Memphis before coming here. The Hokies are putting up 35.7 points per game this season. QB Jerod Evans has been an absolute stud, completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 1,352 yards with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 319 yards and two scores.

Brad Kaaya hasn’t fared well against the better competition like he will face Thursday. He completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 214 yards against Florida State, and 51.6 percent for 224 yards against North Carolina. He has thrown only two touchdowns against one interception in his last two games.

The Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games. Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Finally, I expect the Hokies to also be motivated from back-to-back losses to the Hurricanes the past two seasons. This is the best team that VA Tech has had in a while and one that’s on a mission to get back to the ACC Title game for the first time since 2011.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* Ohio State/Wisconsin Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -10.5

I actually think not covering at Indiana last week has kept this line lower than it should be. I had Indiana +28 last week and cashed it in against Ohio State. But I’m getting back on the Buckeyes this week as only 10.5-point favorites against the Badgers.

I believe Wisconsin is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Wins over both Michigan State and LSU don’t look nearly as good now as they did a few weeks ago. And don’t forget, the Badgers barely beat lowly Georgia State 23-17 at home as 35.5-point favorites.

I also think this line is lower than it should be because Wisconsin only lost 7-14 at Michigan. However, that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Wolverines outgained the Badgers by 190 total yards and held them to just 159 yards of total offense. The Wolverines also had to settle for three field goals, and missed all of them.  Just like the Badgers were outclassed by Michigan, they will be outclassed by Ohio State this week.

Ohio State is legitimately one of the top three teams in the country, if not the best. It boasts a high-powered offense that is putting up 53.2 points and 537.6 yards per game. Wisconsin, which is only averaging 26.0 points and 360.2 yards per game, doesn’t have the firepower to keep up.

Even more impressive has been an Ohio State defense led by Greg Schiano that has been absolutely suffocating. The Buckeyes have only given up 10.8 points, 246.6 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play against opponents that average 28.6 points, 422 yards per game and 5.5 per play. So, the Buckeyes are holding opponents to 18 points, 175 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play less than their season averages.

Ohio State has won four straight and seven of its last eight meetings with Wisconsin. The latest was a 59-0 victory in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2014. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers 558 to 258 in that contest. I can foresee a similar yardage differential in this game and another blowout victory in the Buckeyes’ favor.

The Buckeyes are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 22.0 points per game on average. They beat Oklahoma by 21 on the road a few weeks back, and Oklahoma is far better than Wisconsin.

Ohio State has won 19 straight true road games, a school record and the longest active streak in the country.  They always seem to step up in hostile environments, especially under Urban Meyer.  The Buckeyes are 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 road games.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +21.5

This is a really bad spot for the Houston Cougars.  They are coming off a 40-46 road loss at Navy that crushed their dreams of making the four-team playoff.  I fully expect them to come out flat this week because of it, and for Tulsa to make a game out of this.

Former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery is doing a great job at Tulsa.  He took them to a bowl game in his first season last year, and now he has them off to a 4-1 start this season.  They are fully capable of playing with Houston.

The only loss Tulsa suffered this year came at Ohio State.  But that was a 6-3 game late in the 2nd quarter before turnovers did them in.  They committed six turnovers in all, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns in a span of minutes that turned a close game into a blowout.

The fact that Tulsa hasn't covered the last two weeks has it undervalued here, and this line is bigger than it should be because of it.  The Golden Hurricane needed OT to beat Fresno State on the road despite outgaining them by 164 yards.  They also needed OT to beat SMU at home last week despite outgaining them by 150 yards.  I also can't help but think Tulsa was looking ahead to this game against Houston and not focusing on SMU.

The Golden Hurricane are putting up some very impressive numbers this season.  Their offense is dynamite once again in averaging 39.4 points and 474 yards per game.  However, the improvement on defense has been remarkable from last year.  They are giving up 387 yards per game on the season, and they held Ohio State's high-powered offense to just 415 total yards.

Tulsa has played Houston tough each of the last two years.  They only lost by 14 at home last year, and they lost by 10 on the road as 20-point underdogs in 2014.  This game will be decided by a similar margin most likely, and definitely less than three touchdowns.  The Golden Hurricane have been a great bet away from home as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Plays on road underdogs (TULSA) - after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who are winning 80% or more of their games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Tulsa Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be hungry for their first conference victory. Unfortunately for them, they have ran into arguably the two best teams in the conference already in Texas A&M and Alabama. Not to mention, they beat TCU on the road, so they have certainly been battle-tested in the early going.

And their 24-45 road loss to Texas A&M wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score indicated. It was tied at halftime before the Razorbacks lost 28-7 in the second half. They uncharacteristically could not punch it in in the red zone, which was their downfall.

Arkansas’ 30-49 loss to Alabama last week was also not the blowout that it may have seemed. The Razorbacks were only outgained by the Crimson Tide by 44 yards. However, they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns. One was a 100-yard pick-six that was a 14-point swing and the difference in the game.

Austin Allen is the best pocket passer in the SEC. He actually threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns on that great Alabama defense, though his three interceptions were certainly costly. Allen is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,632 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season.

I believe Ole Miss comes in overvalued for a number of reasons. First, it is coming off a bye week, so that has clearly been factored into the line. And secondly, the Rebels have covered the spread in three straight games, while the Razorbacks have failed to cover in three straight. That has created artificial inflation of this line.

Ole Miss has yet to play a true road game this season. And Fayetteville is no easy place to play. Look for Razorback Stadium to be alive and well Saturday night with this game scheduled to be on ESPN. The home crowd will certainly benefit the Razorbacks here.

Arkansas has had Ole Miss’ number the past two seasons. The Razorbacks won 30-0 at home in 2014 and 53-52 on the road in overtime last year. The Razorbacks are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings as they have been the underdogs in all three. Oddsmakers are once again undervaluing them as not only dogs here, but over a touchdown home dogs at that. Arkansas was a 7.5-point road dog at Ole Miss last year to compare, so there’s no way it should be the same line at home this time around.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARKANSAS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 28-6 (82.4%) since 1992.

Arkansas is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS after three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The Razorbacks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Fayetteville.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +20

The Virginia Tech Hokies are way overvalued right now.  I was on them in their 34-3 win at North Carolina last week, but I'm going to fade them this week with the realization that the markets have caught up to them now.  The Hokies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, and now it's time to fade them.

Their last two games weren't nearly the blowouts that the final scores showed.  They beat East Carolina 54-17 but only outgained them by 19 yards.  And they managed to score 34 points on North Carolina last week despite gaining just 264 total yards on offense.  They simply took advantage of four UNC turnovers and several short fields in the sloppy conditions created by Hurricane Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew also played a role in Syracuse's game last week.  The Orange lost 28-9 on the road to Wake Forest.  Well, that was an awful matchup because the Orange could not run their spread attack in the slop.  And that was a 14-9 game until late in the fourth quarter when Wake Forest got two touchdowns, including a defensive score, to make the final look like a bigger blowout than it really was.  Wake Forest only outgained Syracuse by 4 yards.

The Orange are certainly battle-tested as they've played some great teams already in Louisville, South Florida and Notre Dame.  They only lost by 17 to Notre Dame on a neutral field, and their 20-45 loss to South Florida was way misleading.  The Orange actually outgained the Bulls by 95 yards in that game, but gave it away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.

Playing in perfect conditions in the Carrier Dome, look for head coach Dino Babers to have his offense firing on ally cylinders.  The Orange put up 28 points on Louisville and 33 on Notre Dame earlier this season.  Eric Dungey is having a great year at QB, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,886 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 129 yards and five scores.

This is kind of a sandwich game for the Hokies, who may not have all of their focus on Syracuse.  They are coming off that big win against UNC last week on the road, and they play Miami this coming Thursday on a short week.  They could be saving something for that game.  Meanwhile, Syracuse will be up for this game in a big way with a nationally ranked opponent coming to the Carrier Dome.

I'm just not sure VA Tech has the firepower on offense to cover this big of a number, either.  The Hokies are averaging 412 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 395 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  So, they have been an average offense at best this season in terms of moving the football consistently.

The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  VA Tech is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Alabama/Tennessee CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Tennessee +13

For starters, the Game of the Year line in Vegas released before the season was Tennessee -1. Now it’s Alabama -13. That’s a ridiculous 14-point swing and the reason I believe there’s value with the Volunteers as home underdogs here.

Coming into the season, Alabama was expected to win the SEC West, while Tennessee was expected to win the SEC East. Nothing has changed as Alabama is 6-0 and taking care of business, while Tennessee is 5-1 with its only loss coming on the road in overtime against Texas A&M.

And I would argue that Tennessee outplayed Texas A&M last week and should have won. The Vols actually outgained the Aggies by 92 yards and racked up a whopping 684 yards of total offense. You won’t find many teams that lose with 600-plus yards, but the Vols shot themselves in the foot with seven turnovers.

Alabama beat Arkansas 49-30 on the road last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards. They forced five turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference. In fact, the Crimson Tide have benefited from non-offensive touchdowns all season.

Tennessee ended an 11-game losing streak to Florida a few weeks back with a 38-28 victory. Now it will be motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to Alabama, and this will be its best opportunity yet as this is the best team Tennessee has had in quite some time.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Tennessee had Alabama on the ropes last year and let them off the hook. The Vols had a 14-13 lead late until the Crimson Tide scored with 2:24 remaining to win 19-14. The Vols were 14.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they’re 13-point home dogs in the rematch. That fact alone shows you there is value here as well.

I realize that this is the 4th game of a brutal 4-game schedule for Tennessee, but it seems to be getting better and that level of competition is only going to help them go up against a team like Alabama.  Plus, Tennessee has a bye next week, so it can put all of its eggs into one basket this week.  The Vols will put their best foot forward this week and worry about resting on their bye next week.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 156-90 (63.4%) ATS since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.

The Volunteers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. They have stepped up in their biggest games this season, beating VA Tech, Florida and Georgia, and covering as 8-point road dogs at Texas A&M in a game they should have won.  They will show up at home here and give the Crimson Tide all they can handle and possibly pull off the upset.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* Duke/Louisville ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +35

The Louisville Cardinals are getting mad respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now. This game actually opened with Louisville -27.5 at BetOnline, but has already steamed up to -35, a massive 7.5-point move. I believe the value is with the Blue Devils because of it.

One performance from Duke really stands out to me this season that shows it is capable of going into Louisville and competing with the Cardinals. Duke went into Notre Dame and won 38-35 as 19.5-point underdogs a few weeks back. The Blue Devils put up 498 total yards against the Fighting Irish and were only outgained by 36 yards in the win.

I know that Louisville has had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, but I can’t help but think there is still going to be a hangover effect from the 36-42 loss to Clemson. That loss could keep Louisville out of the four-team playoff, and it’s certainly likely to keep them out of the ACC Championship Game as Clemson would have to lose two more times for them to even have a chance.

Duke will be the best team that Louisville has faced outside of Florida State and Clemson. Marshall lost by 31 to Louisville, Syracuse lost by 34 and Charlotte lost by 56. If both Marshall, with a backup QB, and Syracuse can stay within 35 of Louisville, I have no doubt that Duke can as well.

The Blue Devils actually have a very good defense that is giving up only 21.5 points, 345 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. I also like what I’ve seen from QB Daniel Jones, who is completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,455 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. He has also rushed for 179 yards and three scores.  His 132 completions leads all freshmen nationally and his 1,634 total yards ranks second.

David Cutcliffe is 13-2 ATS in games played on Turf as the coach of Duke. Bobby Petrino is 1-9 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams who allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return as the coach of Louisville. The Blue Devils are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Duke is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. I believe that bye week has them way overvalued here.  Bet Duke Friday.

20* App State/LA-Lafayette Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Appalachian State -10

The Appalachian State Mountaineers are one of better football teams for a small school that not too many people know about. They have absolutely flown under the radar the past two seasons, including during their 11-win campaign from last year. They returned 15 starters from that squad and are just as good in 2016.

Appalachian State proved that in Week 1 when it nearly upset Tennessee in a 13-20 (OT) loss as 21.5-point road underdogs. While the Mountaineers didn’t fare as well against Miami a couple weeks later, the fact that they have played both Tennessee and Miami has prepared them for the Sun Belt conference season.  They won't play anyone close to as good as those two teams the rest of the way.

The other three teams they played they pretty much rolled. They beat Old Dominion 31-7 as 21-point favorites, Akron 45-38 as 4.5-point road favorites, and Georgia State 17-3 as 18.5-point home favorites. And they had a 21-point lead against Akron in the second half as that final score was misleading.

Louisiana-Lafayette’s best opponent faced so far was Boise State, which they lost 10-45 to at home and were outgained by 317 yards. They have also lost to both Tulane and New Mexico State. Their only two wins have come against FCS foe McNeese State by a final of 30-22 at home and South Alabama 28-23 at home.

Despite playing a much softer schedule than the Mountaineers, LA-Lafayette has done nothing that would be considered impressive thus far. And now they have to take a step up in competition here and won’t be ready for it. They certainly weren’t ready for the Mountaineers the past two seasons.

Indeed, Appalachian State has rolled LA-Lafayette each of the last two years. The Mountaineers won 35-16 on the road in 2014 as 8-point dogs while outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns by 158 yards. They also won 28-7 at home last year as 22-point favorites while outgaining them by 156 yards.

Appalachian State once again has a dominant defense this season with nine starters back from last year. That defense has held Lafayette to a combined 23 points the past two seasons and an average of just 252.5 yards per game. The Mountaineers are holding opponents to 10.6 points per game less than their season averages, giving up just 22.6 points per game.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) – a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, in conference games are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Appalachian State Wednesday.

15* Washington State/Stanford ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +7

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the most fraudulent teams in college football.  That finally came to a head last week as Washington beat Stanford 44-6 as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR.  While I love Washington, it was much of a play against Stanford as it was on the Huskies.

I could see that blowout loss to Washington coming from a mile away.  The Cardinal were outgained by 63 yards by Kansas State in their opener, only outgained USC by 51 yards in a misleading result, and needed a last-second touchdown to beat UCLA.  Their offense had been held without a TD until there were 24 seconds remaining in the UCLA game.

And make no mistake, this Stanford offense is terrible.  Christian McCaffrey is the only threat, but he can't do it all on his own.  The leader in receptions through four games outside of McCaffrey is Trenton Irwin with 12.  They will be without a key receiver this week in Francis Owusu as well.  This is an offense that is only averaging just 310 yards per game this season.

But the injuries may be even worse for the defense.  The Cardinal are without their top two cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Quenton Meeks, just as they were last week against Washington.  But that's going to be an even bigger blow this week facing Washington State.

The Cougars love to spread you out in Mike Leach's Air Raid system.  They will have four receivers on the field at all times, so you're going to have Stanford's No. 5 and No. 6 corners forced into action.  The Stanford secondary is really going to get exposed this week.

And I believe Washington State is still flying under the radar due to the 42-45 opening loss to Eastern Washington.  But for whatever reason, the Cougars always seem to struggle with an FCS opponent to start the year.  But this is a 9-4 team from last year that had a chance to win the Pac-12 and brought back 14 starters, 8 on offense, and QB Luke Falk.

All the Cougars have done since that loss is go a perfect 3-0 ATS.  They nearly beat Boise State in a 28-31 road loss as 13-point dogs while racking up 520 total yards and outgaining the Broncos by 100 yards.  They then thumped Idaho 56-6 as they were supposed to, and crushed Oregon 51-33 last week while outgaining the Ducks by 232 yards.

This Washington State offense is the real deal.  It is putting up 44.2 points, 549 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play against opponents that are only allowing 33.8 points, 459 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  Falk is completing 74.3 percent of his passes for 1,495 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.  They are actually rushing for 161 yards per game and 5.4 per carry to show more balance than they ever have before as well.

But perhaps the biggest reason for the turnaround these last three weeks is the defense.  Leach finally has an above-average unit.  The Cougars are giving up 28.7 points, 425 yards per game and 6.6 per play against opponents that average 34 points, 476 yards per game and 6.9 per play.  They are holding opponents to 5.3 points and 51 yards per game less than their season averages.

And the key to stopping Stanford is stopping McCaffrey, and the Cougars are well-equipped to do it.  They are only giving up 131 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that average 169 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  That's very impressive considering they've faced both Oregon and Boise State already.

And lastly, Washington State is going to want revenge from a 30-28 home loss to Stanford last season.  The Cougars outgained the Cardinal 442 to 312 for the game, or by 130 total yards, and should have won.  But they had to settle for five field goals and missed a sixth on the final play that would have won the game.  They also held McCaffrey to just 107 yards on 22 carries, which is no small feat.

Washington State is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cougars are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog.  Washington State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cougars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Take Washington State Saturday.

25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +14

The Game of the Year line released before the season was Alabama -8.5 at Arkansas.  I've seen nothing from these two teams that would indicate this line should have shifted this much since the start of the season.  It has risen 6.5 points to -14.

To just give you an idea of how overvalued Alabama is right now, the Crimson Tide are the biggest road favorites they've ever been against a Top 25 opponent in the Nick Saban era.  The clear value is with the home underdog.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have really shown me a lot this season. Their 41-38 road win at TCU stands out the most, but even a 24-45 road loss at Texas A&M wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score indicated.

The Razorbacks simply stalled in the red zone time and time again, turning a close game against the Aggies into a blowout in the fourth quarter as the Razorbacks were outscored 28-7 after intermission.

Quarterback Austin Allen is following in his brother’s footsteps brilliantly for the Razorbacks. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 1,232 yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. He’s capable of making plenty of plays in the passing game to keep the Razorbacks competitive this week, and I would argue he's the best pocket passer in the SEC.

But Arkansas has some nice balance this year as it is averaging 198 yards per game and 4.8 per carry on the ground. Rawleigh Williams III has rushed for 559 yards and four touchdowns to lead the way. Drew Morgan has been Allen’s favorite target, catching 28 balls for 301 yards and a score.

Arkansas has been playing some solid defense once again this season, giving up 23.2 points and 374 yards per game against opponents that average 31.2 points and 457 yards per game. So it is holding opponents to 8.0 points and 83 yards per game less than their season averages.

Alabama has benefited from a pretty easy schedule this season with USC, Western Kentucky, Kent State and Kentucky resulting in blowouts. But in its only true road game, Alabama survived a 48-43 scare from Ole Miss as 11-point favorites. The Crimson Tide gave up 527 total yards to the Rebels, showing that their defense can be vulnerable.

Arkansas has played Alabama extremely tough the last two years. It only lost 14-13 in 2014 at home while actually outgaining the Crimson Tide 335 to 227 for the game. The Razorbacks also lost 14-27 as 15-point road underdogs last season.  They have had the lead against Alabama in the 3rd quarter each of the past two seasons.

Last year's meeting a 10-7 game entering the fourth quarter as the Crimson Tide put up 17 points in the final period to pull away. As you can see, the last two meetings were decided by a combined 14 points, so getting 14 points here is a gift from oddsmakers.

Plays against road favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1992.

Bret Bielema is 7-0 ATS after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Razorbacks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +20

The Northern Illinois Huskies were expected to compete for a MAC Title this year.  After all, they have made an appearance in the MAC Championship Game in six consecutive seasons this decade.  Rod Carey is doing a tremendous job here.

However, after an 0-4 start to the season, everyone jumped off the Huskies' bandwagon.  They lost in triple-overtime to Wyoming, on two very good teams in South Florida and San Diego State, and then a shocking 23-28 home loss to Western Illinois.  They were only 7.5-point favorites in that game, but they never should have lost as they outgained WIU by 106 yards in that contest.

The Huskies didn't sweat as they knew their MAC opener was coming up, and they promptly played up to their potential in beating Ball State 31-24 as 3-point road dogs.  This game wasn't nearly as close as the final score as the Huskies outgained Ball State by 226 yards in the win.

Carey made the move to give senior Anthony Maddle his first start, and it paid huge dividends.  Maddle completed 26 of 41 passes for 298 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 160 yards and a score on 14 carries.  The Huskies racked up 653 total yards in the win, and Maddle will get the start again this week.

Western Michigan, on the other hand, could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  The Broncos are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS with two wins over Big Ten opponents in Northwestern and Illinois.  Then they opened conference play with a 49-10 thrashing of Central Michigan last week.  While the Broncos have been impressive, there's no way they should be 20-point favorites over rival Northern Illinois.

After all, Northern Illinois is 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Western Michigan.  The Huskies won 27-19 as 3-point home favorites last year and 31-21 as 8-point road dogs in 2014.  This will only be the second time that NIU will be an underdog to Western Michigan in the past eight years.

It's one thing to be an underdog, but to be a 20-point underdog is simply unwarranted.  There's no question that the Broncos will want revenge, and they may get it, but not by three touchdowns.  Carey and the Huskies just simply have their number, and they're coming off their best performance of the season to give them momentum.

One luck factor that has gone Western Michigan's way is turnovers.  In fact, the Broncos are the only team in the country that has yet to commit a turnover this season.  They are +9 in turnover differential.  Meanwhile, NIU is -4 in turnover differential and has only forced three turnovers this season.  These trends aren't likely to continue moving forward.

Plays against home favorites (W MICHIGAN) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Northern Illinois is 13-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog since 1992.  It is winning these games by 21.0 points per game on average.  The Huskies are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games.  Northern Illinois is 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +29

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They realistically should be 4-0 right now, but two weeks ago they lost to Wake Forest 28-33 despite outgaining the Demon Deacons by 259 yards. They committed five turnovers and gave that game away.

But the Hoosiers’ true colors showed last week in a 24-21 (OT) win over Michigan State as 5-point underdogs. This was a very evenly-matched game as the Hoosiers gained 437 yards while the Spartans had 438. It showed that they can play with the big boys.

Ohio State could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after opening the season 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS.  That's especially the case after beating Rutgers 58-0 last week.  The betting public is all over them, yet this line has dropped from an opening line of -32 down to -29, indicating that the sharp money is on the Hoosiers. And I agree that it should be.

Indiana boasts an offense that is putting up 499 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play against opponents that only allow 396 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Quarterback Richard Lagow has been awesome, completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 1,278 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 10.1 per attempt.

Kevin Wilson has his best defense yet at Indiana. The Hoosiers are only giving up 21.7 points, 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Holding Michigan State to just 21 points last week was no small feat. Plus, the Spartans scored a TD with only 11 seconds remaining as they had basically been held to 14 points for the entire game.

Head-to-head history means a lot in this series. Indiana is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Ohio State, having not lost by more than 28 points in any of the last seven meetings. That’s key when you consider this is a 29-point spread.  Kevin Wilson's aggressive, attacking style on offense has given the Buckeyes fits.

Last year, Indiana only lost 27-34 at home to Ohio State as 21.5-point underdogs. The Hoosiers also only lost 27-42 as 36.5-point road underdogs in 2014. They desperately want to end their 21-game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

And for whatever reason, the Buckeyes just don’t seem to get up to play the Hoosiers, and this streak could have something to do with it as they just feel like they have to show up to win.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's young players get caught looking ahead to a big road game at Wisconsin next week.

Ohio State is 0-7 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. It is only winning by 9.4 points per game on average in this spot. Meyer is 3-14 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Ohio State. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.  Take Indiana Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +2

The Virginia Tech Hokies are getting love here for good reason as this line has been bet down to +2 with all of the big money coming in on them.  I'm seeing the same thing that most sharps are probably seeing here.

First, VA Tech is one of the best teams in the country.  That has shown the last two games following a 24-45 loss to Tennessee in Bristol, which was a misleading score.  The Hokies held a 14-0 lead in that game, outgained the Vols by 70 yards, but lost the turnover battle 5-1 to let the game get away from them.

The Hokies responded with a 49-0 home win over Boston College as 6.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 42.5 points and outgaining the Eagles by 352 yards.  They then beat East Carolina 54-17 as 14.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 22.5 points.  That's the same ECU team that beat NC State earlier this year and should have beaten South Carolina.

But perhaps what I love most about this spot for the Hokies is that they are coming off a bye week.  They have had two full weeks to prepare for North Carolina.  And the players can use this extra time to grasp Justin Fuente's systems, which they have clearly caught on to quickly as you can see from their last two games.

Fuente created a monster in Memphis with their high-powered offense.  And he has done wonders for this VA Tech offense in a short time.  The Hokies are averaging 40.7 points, 449 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against opponents that only allow 26.1 points, 358 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

Virginia Tech's defense remains elite as Fuente was able to retain revered coordinator Bud Foster.  This has been a very stingy bunch, giving up just 18.7 points, 264 yards per game and 4.2 per play on the season.

This couldn't be a worse spot for North Carolina.  After scoring two touchdowns in the final minutes to beat Pitt 37-36 at home two weeks ago, the Tar Heels stunned Florida State 37-35 on the road last week.  After that two-week stretch of emotional victories, I don't believe the Tar Heels are going to have anything left in the tank here, especially facing VA Tech off a bye.

VA Tech is going to want revenge from a 27-30 home loss to North Carolina last season.  I see this game playing out similarly to the 2014 meeting, where VA Tech went on the road and won 34-17 as 2.5-point favorites.

And while UNC has a great offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Tar Heels are giving up 31.0 points, 459 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  The difference in this game is going to be defense, and I certainly side with Foster and company in this matchup.

I also think with the weather forecast due to Hurricane Matthew with the rains and wind it may bring, running the football is going to be very important.  Well, VA Tech rushed for 195 yards per game, while UNC only averages 136 rushing yards per game.  VA Tech only gives up 113 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while UNC allows 237 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.

UNC is 10-30 ATS in its last 40 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 28-4 (87.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Clemson/Boston College ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +17

The Boston College Eagles have impressed me this season. They have taken care of business against their lesser opponents as they were supposed to with a 19-point win at UMass, a 32-point win over Wagner and another 32-point win over Buffalo.

Boston College also played Georgia Tech tough in the opener in a 14-17 loss in a game they should have won. They outgained the Yellow Jackets by 82 yards in that contest. And the 49-0 road loss to Virginia Tech was clearly the aberration.

Clemson is overvalued here after covering the spread in three straight games coming in. The betting public is all over the Tigers right now, and it’s certainly time to sell high on them. That’s especially the case considering this is a massive letdown spot off a huge win over Louisville Saturday.

Now Clemson is on a short week after expending a ton of effort and energy in beating Louisville 42-36, needing two touchdowns over the final seven minutes to pull out the victory. Meanwhile, Boston College cruised to a 35-3 win over Buffalo Saturday and will have more to give tonight.

Once again, Boston College has one of the best defenses in the country that can keep it competitive against almost anyone. It is only giving up 17.2 points, 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play. This is an elite unit that will have an answer for Deshaun Watson and company.

The Eagles certainly aren’t explosive on offense, but they have been better than they were a year ago. Patrick Towles has been a big upgrade at the quarterback position as he has thrown for 806 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions while averaging 7.5 per attempt.

Boston College has had a knack of playing Clemson tough of late. In fact, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, and each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less. Clemson has won them by 14, 10, 4 and 17 points, so the Eagles will be wanting some revenge here after coming so close.

Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BOSTON COLLEGE) – after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS since 1992.

Boston College is 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of better than 75%. Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* WKU/LA Tech Conference USA No-Brainer on Louisiana Tech +2.5

I realize the LA Tech Bulldogs are off to a poor start this season at 2-3, but it’s easy to see why when you look at their schedule. They have been underdogs in all three of their losses, which have all come on the road against some of the better teams in the country.

Louisiana Tech only lost 20-21 at Arkansas as 21-point underdogs in the opener. It also lost 45-59 at Texas Tech as 11-point dogs and 34-38 at Middle Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs. As you can see, the Bulldogs were competitive in all three losses.

The two home games the Bulldogs have played have resulted in blowout victories. They beat South Carolina State 53-24 in Week 2 and UTEP 28-7 last week. They are now 11-2 at home over the past three seasons with some very impressive wins along the way.

Western Kentucky’s only three wins this season have come against Houston Baptist, Miami Ohio and Rice, which are three of the worst teams in the country. And they only beat Miami Ohio 31-24 on the road as 17.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by the Redhawks.

WKU also lost at home to Vanderbilt 30-31 in overtime despite being 9.5-point favorites, and on the road at Alabama 10-38 as 27-point dogs. The Hilltoppers are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, and I believe they’re being overvalued again here as road favorites over the Bulldogs.

Last year with a great team, WKU only beat Louisiana Tech 41-38 at home. Louisiana Tech won 59-10 at home over Western Kentucky in 2014. It’s clear that home-field advantage has been huge in this series, and I believe it will be again here as the value side is the home underdog Bulldogs.

LA Tech has played the tougher schedule of these two, and the numbers have been impressive. It is putting up 520 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play against opponents that only allow 445 yards per game and 5.9 per play. The defense is giving up 6.1 per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play. So the offense is elite, while the defense is average.

Western Kentucky is also averaging 7.3 yards per play, but against opponents that give up 6.5 yards per play. The Hilltoppers also have an average defense as they give up 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 4.7 yards per play. They haven’t faced an offense outside of Alabama that is as good as this LA Tech outfit.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISIANA TECH) – an excellent offensive team (at least 34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1992. The Hilltoppers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games. The Bulldogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in their previous game.  Take Louisiana Tech Thursday.

15* GA Southern/Arkansas St ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas State +8

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS to start the season. It’s clear that they are undervalued due to this start as the betting public wants nothing to do with them. And I think it’s time to jump on board this week.

I do not believe the Red Wolves are as bas as their record. They didn’t play well in losses to Toledo and Auburn to start the season, but that’s understandable against those two teams. But they have actually outgained their last two opponents in Utah State and Central Arkansas, but lost.

Arkansas State is getting better and will be hungry for its first victory here. Heck, it still has everything to play for as this will be the conference opener. And Phil Steele and many others picked the Red Wolves to win the Sun Belt this season, so there’s clearly talent here.

Georgia Southern is 3-1 this season with its only loss to Western Michigan. But I have to say the three wins aren’t that impressive. The Eagles have beaten Savannah State, South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe with two of those games at home. And a 23-21 home win over ULM as 27-point favorites shows that perhaps the Eagles aren’t very good.

I like the switch to Justice Hansen at quarterback for the Red Wolves over the past two games. He threw for 277 yards against Utah State and then 424 against Central Arkansas, combining for four touchdown passes and three interceptions. He is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt this season, making the offense a lot more explosive than it was under Chad Voytik the first two games.

Arkansas State has had an awesome home-field advantage in recent years. The Red Wolves are 20-4 in their last 24 Sun Belt home games. Two of those losses were to Western Kentucky, which is now a member of Conference USA.

The Red Wolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their previous game. Arkansas State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. Look for an inspired effort from them in their conference opener tonight.  Take Arkansas State Wednesday.

15* Oregon/Washington State Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +2.5
A 1-2 start has the Washington Cougars way undervalued right now.  This is a team that went 9-4 last season, including 6-3 in Pac-12 play, and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They returned 14 starters from that squad, including eight on offense.
But the Cougars are very close to being 3-0.  Their two losses have come by a combined 6 points, including an impressive 28-31 loss as 13-point road dogs to Boise State in which they gained 520 yards of offense and outgained the Broncos by 100 yards in the game.
The Cougars aren't phased by this start because they have everything to play for still as their Pac-12 opener is this week against Oregon.  Plus, they'll come in fresh, focused and prepared considering they are coming off a bye week and get two fulls weeks to get ready for the Ducks.  That's a huge advantage.
Oregon is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It has lost its last two games to Nebraska and Colorado, including at home to the Buffaloes, and it has gone 0-3-1 ATS.  Yes the Ducks continue to get massive respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites over the Cougars.
Oregon has all kinds of injury issues with the biggest being the loss of their best receiver in Devon Allen.  Running back Royce Freeman is also banged up, though he expects to play this week.  The offensive and defensive lines have their injury troubles as well.
I like this matchup for the Cougars.  Oregon is rushing for 275 yards per game and 6.4 per carry as that is clearly its strength.  Well, the strength of the Cougars is their run defense.  They are only giving up 103 yards per game and 3.8 per carry on the ground this season.
Last year, Washington State went into Eugene and won 45-38 in overtime.  The Cougars outgained the Ducks 641 to 533 for the game, or by 108 total yards, so it clearly wasn't a fluke.  The Cougars only lost 31-38 at home to the Ducks as 23-point dogs back in 2014 as well.  They are starting to prove they can play with the Ducks, and this is the worst team Oregon has had in years.  It is alo probably the best team that Mike Leach has had at Washington State.
Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 27-3 (90%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Ducks are allowing 32.5 points and 451 yards per game this season and will have their hands full with Luke Faulk and the WSU offense, which is putting up 42.0 points and 515 yards per game.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -10
The USC Trojans are primed for their best performance of the season Saturday.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country through the first four weeks, and they are clearly better than their 1-3 record.  I look for them to show that Saturday at home against Arizona State.
USC's three losses this season have all come on the road to Alabama, Stanford and Utah.  Those three teams are a combined 11-0 as of this writing.  They were only outgained by 51 yards by Stanford and actually outgained Utah by 10 yards.
I really liked what I saw in that Utah game as USC should have won but blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead in a hostile road environment.  I was impressed with freshman QB Sam Darnold, who threw for 253 yards without an interception.  Justin Davis rushed for 126 yards and a score on only 10 carries, and if they had given him the ball more late, they likely would have won.
Arizona State is overvalued due to its 4-0 start against a soft schedule.  It has played three games at home against Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and California.  It was fortunate to beat Cal last week.  And its only road game was an uninspiring 32-28 win at UTSA as 21-point favorites.  That game really exposed the Sun Devils as they actually trailed 28-12 in the second half before mounting a ferocious comeback late.
USC's talent level is far superior to Arizona State's, and that will show this week, just as it did last year.  USC went on the road and beat Arizona State 42-14 as 4-point favorites last year, and a similar result can be expect at home this time around.  Look for the Trojans to take out their frustrations on the Sun Devils Saturday.
Arizona State's defense has been atrocious this season.  It is giving up 34.2 points, 499 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  Darnold and company will be able to score at will in this game, which is why laying 10 points will not be a problem for the Trojans, who clearly have the superior defense and will get stops.
The Trojans are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take USC Saturday.

15* Louisville/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson +2

The betting public is in love with Louisville right now as this line has moved five points from an opener of Clemson -3 to Louisville -2. I don’t agree with the move, and now see some nice value here with the home team.

Clemson didn’t wow anyone through the first three weeks. But the Tigers got into conference play, and their true colors showed last week against Georgia Tech. They won that game 26-7 in what was probably a bigger blowout than even the final score showed.

The Tigers outgained the Yellow Jackets by 318 yards for the game. They held them to just 124 total yards behind one of the best defenses in the country. They also got their offense going with 442 total yards in the win.

There’s no question that Louisville’s 63-20 home win over Florida State was impressive. However, the other three wins have come against Marshall, Syracuse and Charlotte. This will be by far the toughest test the Cardinals have faced this season, on the road in a hostile environment.

Clemson simply rarely loses at home. It is 35-2 at home over the last six seasons. Memorial Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and the Tiger faithful will be out in full force in this game, especially considering it’s a night game.

I realize Louisville has played Clemson tough the last two years, losing 17-23 on the road in 2014 and 17-20 at home last year. However, last year’s game was a bigger blowout than that score would indicate.

The Tigers outgained the Cardinals 401 to 272 for the game, or by 129 total yards. They held the Cardinals to just 19 rushing yards on 28 attempts with an average of just 0.7 yards per carry. They have the type of speed on defense that will be able to contain Lamar Jackson from running wild, and they will make him try and beat them with his arm, which he has yet to prove he can do against a team of this caliber.

Louisville is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games vs. good pass defenses that allow 150 or fewer passing yards per game. The Tigers have a big advantage in rest here as they last played on Thursday against Georgia Tech, getting an extra two days to prepare for the Cardinals.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

The Sooners have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They were embarrassed on a big stage in a 24-45 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago. They desperately want to make amends for that defeat, and considering this will be their Big 12 opener, they still have plenty to play for the rest of the way despite losing two games already.

I look for an inspired effort from the Sooners, especially considering they had last week off and will be extra rested and prepared for this week’s tussle with TCU. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs played last week against SMU and will be at a huge disadvantage because of it.

I really haven’t been very impressed with TCU this season. It lost at home to Arkansas in overtime, which lost to Texas A&M by 21 points last week. It also gave up 41 points to FCS foe South Dakota State in the opener, failed to cover as 24.5-point favorites in a 41-20 home victory over Iowa State, and was only leading SMU 6-3 at halftime last week before pulling away for a 33-3 victory.

Oklahoma’s two losses this season have come to national title contenders. It played basically a true road game in a 33-23 road loss to Houston in the opener. And the game against Ohio State wasn’t as big of a blowout as the 24-45 final would indicate. The Sooners were only outgained by 39 yards in that contest, but they lost the turnover battle 2-0, which was the difference.

Many are looking at TCU only losing 29-30 to Oklahoma last year and beating the Sooners in 2014 at home. But last year’s final was misleading as the Sooners actually outgained the Horned Frogs 536-390 for the game, or by 146 total yards. Baker Mayfield actually exited that game early. This was a 30-13 game before TCU made a ferocious comeback by outscoring the Sooners 16-0 in the 4th quarter.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that Oklahoma is still one of the best teams in the country. It is scoring 35.3 points and averaging 479 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opponents that are only giving up 19.1 points, 328 yards per game and 4.8 per play. Defensively, the Sooners are giving up 31.7 points, 401 yards per game and 5.6 per play against opponents that are averaging 42.2 points, 485 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

TCU is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more total yards over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Oklahoma is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss. Bob Stoops is 25-15 ATS following a loss as the coach of Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming back to win by 25.7 points per game on average in these spots.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +33

The Auburn Tigers are coming off a huge win over LSU last week by a final of 18-13.  They originally lost the game, but the refs overturned the call on the final play after LSU had scored a touchdown.  I believe now that Auburn is going to have a hard time getting up to play non-conference foe Louisiana-Monroe here Saturday.

And Auburn clearly cannot be trusted to lay 33 points to anyone when it has a hard time even scoring 33 points.  This Auburn offense has been awful again in 2016, averaging just 24.5 points per game on the season.  And that's inflated from the 51 points they scored against Arkansas State, which is one of the worst teams in the country.

Louisiana-Monroe has impressed me for the most part this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS in its three games.  It beat Southern 38-21 as 14-point favorites, lost 17-59 at Oklahoma as 46-point dogs, and nearly upset Georgia Southern in a 21-23 road loss as 27-point dogs last time out.

Now, Louisiana-Monroe has had two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn, which is a huge advantage.  We've seen in the past few seasons Auburn struggling to put away supposed inferior opponents.  Last year they needed OT to beat Jacksonville State as 47-point favorites, and they only beat San Jose State by 14 as 20-point favorites, both of which were at home.

Louisiana-Monroe's numbers have actually been pretty good this season.  They are averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense against opponents that give up 5.9 per play, and they are giving up 5.8 yards per play on defense against opponents that average 6.1 yards per play.  I believe the Warhawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Sun Belt.

I also like what I've seen from the Warhawks' offense, especially quarterback Garrett Smith.  He is completing 58.4 percent of his passes for 742 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions in three games.  But it's his legs that make him so tough to deal with.  Smith has already rushed for 177 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry.  He's the type of QB who can keep the Warhawks competitive in this game against Auburn.

Auburn is 3-12 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 2-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS in home games off two straight conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last three seasons.

Auburn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Warhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Louisiana-Monroe is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Warhawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

I’m on board with Michigan being one of the best teams in the country. They opened the season with dominant wins over lesser opponents in Hawaii and UCF, but against much better competition the last two weeks, they have kept the blowouts coming.

Colorado is obviously much improved this season as it just went on the road and beat Oregon last week. Well, Michigan beat Colorado 45-28 in Week 3. Then the Wolverines came back with a 49-10 win over Penn State last week while outgaining the Nittany Lions by 324 total yards.

The Wolverines are averaging 52.0 points and 467.7 yards per game behind one of the most improved offenses in the country. They finally found their quarterback in Wilton Speight, who is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 875 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception.

The defense is one of the best in college football again, giving up just 13.7 points and 269.7 yards per game. That’s really impressive when you consider their opponents average 32.3 points and 420 yards per game, so they are holding them to nearly 19 points and 150 yards per game less than their season averages.

I really believe that the Wisconsin Badgers are being overvalued here due to wins over both LSU and Michigan State. Well, LSU already has two losses and clearly isn’t as good as most thought they would be. Then, the Badgers caught the Spartans in a letdown spot last week after a big road win over Notre Dame the week prior.

Well, Michigan State’s win over Notre Dame is now discounted because the Fighting Irish have three losses on the season already after falling to Duke at home last week. And the Spartans actually outgained the Badgers by eight yards in a game that was much closer than the final score of 30-6 would indicate. The Badgers simply took advantage of four Spartan turnovers, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

I look for Wisconsin to get exposed this week against the best team it has faced by far. I’m not ready to look past Wisconsin’s 23-17 home win over Georgia State as 35.5-point favorites two weeks ago. The Badgers actually trailed in that game 17-13 in the fourth quarter.

Jim Harbaugh is 26-13 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 20 points.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State -10.5

The NC State Wolfpack are well-rested and ready to go.  They have had two weeks off since their 49-22 win over Old Dominion.  Now they'll be looking forward to their ACC opener Saturday at home against Wake Forest and will put their best foot forward with all this extra rest and preparation.

I've been impressed with what I've seen from the Wolfpack this season.  Their offense is putting up 42.3 points, 496 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Their defense is limiting opponents to 23.0 points, 311 yards per game and 5.1 per play.

Wake Forest could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 4-0 start.  But it easily could have lost three of those games with the lone exception being a 38-21 home win over Delaware as 24-point favorites.

There's no question the Demon Deacons should have lost last week, but managed to win 33-28 as 7-point underdogs at Indiana.  They were outgained by 259 yards by the Hoosiers, but won the turnover battle 5-0, which is the only reason it was even a game.  Indiana gained a whopping 611 total yards against Wake Forest's defense.

NC State figures to have a big game offensively here.  That has been the case each of the last two seasons against Wake Forest.  NC State won 35-17 on the road last year and outgained the Demon Deacons 469 to 271.  NC State also won 42-13 at home in 2014 and outgained them 445 to 219.

Wake Forest has had a hard time scoring on NC State each of the last two years, and I don't expect that to change this season.  The Demon Deacons are averaging just 349 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play on offense this season.  While improved from last year, this is still one of the worst offenses in the country.

NC State is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 vs. teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game.  The Wolfpack are a sensational 19-4 ATS in their last 23 games following a bye week.  NC State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a win of more than 20 points.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.  Take NC State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State +19

I was really big on Colorado coming into the season.  The Buffaloes have not disappointed, starting the season 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with their only loss coming 28-45 on the road to Michigan.  They even beat Oregon 41-38 on the road last week as 14-point underdogs.

But now it's time to fade the Buffaloes.  They are way overvalued due to their 4-0 ATS start, and especially after their win over Oregon last week.  But now that set the Buffaloes up for a letdown spot here.  They are coming off back-to-back road games at Michigan and Oregon, and now they won't be able to get up for Oregon State this week, especially with another road game at USC next week.  This is the typical sandwich game.

I also felt like Oregon State would be a good team to back this season because they came in undervalued.  That has proven to be the case as they've gone 2-1 ATS.  They only lost 23-30 at Minnesota as 13-point dogs, and 24-38 to Boise State as 17-point home dogs.  So they have already proven they can play with Minnesota and Boise State, and those two teams might both be better than Colorado.

This has been a very closely-contested series the past two years.  The road team won each of the last two meetings with Oregon State winning 36-31 in 2014 and Colorado winning 17-13 last year.  Those were only 4 and 1-point spreads, respectively.  Now Colorado is being asked to lay 19 points to Oregon State, and it's simply too much and obvious that the Buffaloes are overvalued.

Oregon State is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 October road games.  Colorado is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 home games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  Gary Andersen is 26-13 ATS in road games in all games he has coached, including 18-6 ATS as a road underdog.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Texas/Oklahoma State ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +2.5

For starters, the Longhorns have had two full weeks to prepare for the Cowboys, which is going to be a huge advantage for them in this game.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is coming off a hard-fought 34-45 loss at Baylor last week. I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank after three straight games that went down to the wire. They lost 27-30 to Central Michigan in Week 2 before coming back to beat Pittsburgh 45-38 in Week 3 after a two-hour weather delay.

When you look at the numbers, it’s pretty easy to see that the Longhorns are the superior team even without this rest advantage. They have outgained each of their first three opponents, including Notre Dame and Cal, which are no pushovers.

The Longhorns have a new high-powered offense that is putting up 44.7 points and 500.3 yards per game. And the defense hasn’t been as bad as advertised as the Longhorns are giving up 386 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opponents that averaging 454 yards per game and 6.2 per play, so they are holding them to 68 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

The team with the poor defense is the Cowboys, who are giving up 417.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that are only averaging 410 yards per game 5.7 per play. So, this is a below-average defense the Cowboys are sporting.

Texas got good news when it was announced Shane Buechele would play this week after being forced out of the Cal game with a chest injury. The two weeks off have certainly helped him, and he’s very important considering he’s completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt through three games.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. In fact, the road team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. The road team has covered nine straight meetings. I look for this trend to continue, especially with the Longhorns having that rest advantage.

Charlie Strong is 15-2 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached. Strong is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced no turnovers in all games he has coached. The Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less.  Bet Texas Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5

The Washington Huskies were a popular pick to compete for a Pac-12 Championship coming into the season. In fact, I actually picked the Huskies to win the conference. They had 15 starters back this season and one of the most talented young rosters in the country.

But after needing overtime to beat Arizona on the road last week, I think a lot of people have lowered their expectations on the Huskies. I’m not one of them. I believe that close win has the Huskies undervalued here heading into their biggest game of the season. Had they blown out Arizona like they were supposed to, they would be much more than 2.5-point favorites here.

I also think that close win over Arizona will benefit the Huskies mentally. They needed a close game to test their intestinal fortitude after three straight blowout win to open the season, and they responded by scoring in the first overtime and holding on defense. That close win will benefit them the rest of the season because they are battle-tested now.

Stanford is also battle-tested having faced three pretty tough opponents and beating them all in Kansas State, USC and UCLA. Only one of those games was on the road, though, and they should have lost at UCLA last week.

The Cardinal trailed almost the entire game before getting a touchdown with 24 seconds left to go up 16-13. Their offense was held to three field goals before that drive. Then they got a fumble recovery and returned it for a TD on the final play, winning 22-13 when the game was much closer than that. I actually think that extra score has the Cardinal overvalued here. Had they lost to UCLA like they should have, Stanford would be a bigger underdog this week.

It’s clear that Stanford has issues offensively that aren’t really fixable. It is only averaging 25.0 points and 342 yards per game this season. The only offense has been Christian McCaffrey as they are too predictable. First-year starter Ryan Burns hasn’t been able to produce much in the passing game, throwing for just 402 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.

Now Burns is going to be up against the best defense in the Pac-12 in one of the most hostile atmospheres in all of college football at Husky Stadium. Washington is holding opponents to 14.5 points, 320.7 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play. The Huskies had the best defense in the Pac-12 last year, and they returned seven starters on that unit this year.

Washington may also have the best offense in the Pac-12. It is putting up 45.7 points, 445.2 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season. Both Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin are now sophomores after starting as freshmen last season and producing big numbers.

Browning is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 904 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. Gaskin has rushed for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Four receivers have at least 10 receptions this season, including Joe Ross (17, 195, 5 TD), who missed all of last season due to injury. Ross is their best playmaker on offense and special teams, so it’s huge to have him back healthy.

Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) – after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in four consecutive games, with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.

Chris Petersen is 26-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games in all games he has coached. Petersen is 15-5 ATS after two ore more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached. The Huskies are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS loss. The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Washington Friday.

15* Kansas/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas +28.5

The betting public is infatuated with high-scoring offenses like Texas Tech. That’s why it is no surprise this line is over four touchdowns. They oddsmakers have to set it that high to try and get some action on Kansas to even out the betting.

That’s why I believe the value is with the Jayhawks in this game. While the Red Raiders have an explosive offense, they also boast one of the worst defenses in the country. And even Kansas is going to be able to put up plenty of points on this Texas Tech defense.

The Red Raiders are allowing 43.3 points, 513.3 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. Their last two games have been laughable as they gave up 68 points to Arizona State and 45 to Louisiana Tech.

Kansas is coming off a 7-43 loss to Memphis last time out, which also has it undervalued here. But a deeper look shows that game was much closer than the final score indicated. The Jayhawks gave it away by committing six turnovers, losing the turnover battle 6-to-0. But they were only outgained by 80 yards as they held the high-powered Memphis offense to only 394 total yards.

It’s clear to me that the Jayhawks are vastly improved this season. I think the nearly two weeks to prepare for this game against Texas Tech will help the Jayhawks more than it will the Red Raiders. They’ll be able to correct their mistakes from the six-turnover game against Memphis and come up with a proper game plan.

The numbers suggest that the Jayhawks are an average team this season. They are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense against defenses that are giving up 5.9 yards per play. They are also allowing only 4.9 yards per play on defense against offenses that average 5.3 yards per play.

Texas Tech just can’t be trusted to lay this many points, and that has been proven in recent meetings in this series. Three of the last four meetings were decided by 13 points or less. Texas Tech was a 33-point favorite over Kansas last year and only won 30-20. They also won 34-21 at home in 2014 and 41-34 (OT) as a 24.5-point home favorite in 2012. Those Kansas teams were worse than this one, too.

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) – after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 92-44 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.

Kansas is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 31 or more points per game. Kliff Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS off three straight games where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Take Kansas Thursday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Marshall +27

This is the perfect spot to fade Louisville, which could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now after its 3-0 start.  The Cardinals are coming off a 63-20 win over Florida State last week that has the betting public in awe.

So they're in a letdown spot after beating FSU, plus they are in a lookahead spot with Clemson on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cardinals, and I'm very confident that they will be flat against Marshall this week because of it.

At the same time, Marshall could not be more undervalued after an ugly 38-65 loss to Akron at home last week.  That was after a 62-0 home win over Morgan State to open the season, and now this will be just their 3rd game of the year.

But that loss to Akron was far from as bad as it looks from the score.  The Thundering Herd actually outgained by 36 yards in the game and racked up 560 yards of offense.  Marshall committed four turnovers in that game, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.  Akron also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, scoring three non-offensive touchdowns, which is hard to do.

The Thundering Herd will regroup this week at home as this is their Super Bowl against Louisville.  Huntington, West Virginia is a place where teams have gone to die in recent years.  Indeed, Marshall is 18-1 straight up at home over the last four seasons.  That loss to Akron was simply an aberration.

Plays against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) - excellent rushing team (230-plus yards/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or fewer yards/game), after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1992.

The Thundering Herd are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Marshall is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Roll with Marshall Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Northwestern +7.5

The Northwestern Wildcats are undervalued right now after starting 0-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State.  While those were upsets, they were only 3-point favorites and 12.5-point favorites respectively, so they weren't out of the realm of possibility.

But the Wildcats bounced back nicely last week by beating Duke 24-13.  Clayton Thorsen threw for a career-high 320 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  The defense stepped up again and is playing well, limiting opponents to 14.7 points per game on the season.

Now the Wildcats enter conference play and realize that those losses don't matter now.  You'd love to have those games back, but you are your record -- and you have to work to get better," said Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald. "I think it just shows if you have perseverance and grit and you stay the course that you can do whatever you set your mind to."  That's what he had to say after the Duke victory.

Nebraska is overvalued due to its 3-0 start.  The Huskers needed a late touchdown to cover against Fresno State 43-10 as 29-point favorites, they were in a 24-17 game against Wyoming in the 4th quarter, but exploded for 28 points in the final period thanks to six turnovers from the Cowboys in a 52-17 win as 26.5-point favorites.

Then with under three minutes left last week, the Huskers put together a game-winning drive to beat Oregon 35-32 on a 34-yard run from QB Tommy Armstrong.  Players were calling that a 'statement win' after the game, and now I believe they are in a letdown spot here this week, not to mention overvalued as stated before.

Nebraska is just 1-4 in road openers since joining the Big Ten.  Its only win came against hapless Purdue in 2013 as 13-point favorites.  The Huskers lost their road opener last year at Illinois.  They will likely lose again this week to Northwestern, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

This has been a very closely-contested series to say the least.  In fact, five of the last six meetings were decided by 3 points or fewer.  That includes a 30-28 road win last year for Northwestern as 7-point dogs.  The only exception was in 2014 when Northwestern blew a 17-14 halftime lead and was shut out after intermission.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a TD or less either way.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NORTHWESTERN) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1992.

Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Mike Riley is 5-15 ATS in road games in the first month of the season in all games he has coached.  The Wildcats are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Saturday.

15* Penn State/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +19

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued here in my opinion due to three straight blowouts against very weak competition. They are also the No. 4 team in the country. These blowouts and that ranking have the betting public way too high on them right now.

But when you dig deeper into the numbers, you will find that Michigan hasn’t been as dominant as it appears. It is outscoring Hawaii, UCF and Colorado by 38.0 points per game, but only outgaining them by 156.0 yards per game. That doesn’t really add up as you would expect to see a bigger yardage differential with that point differential.

Colorado played Michigan to a tougher game than the 45-28 final would suggest. There’s no way the Wolverines should have scored 45 points with just 397 yards of total offense, but they got two special teams touchdowns. Colorado was actually leading this game 28-24 in the 3rd quarter, but then its starting QB Sefo Liufau got knocked out of the game, and the Wolverines scored 21 straight points to finish and pull away.

I really like what I’ve seen from Penn State thus far and know that it is vastly improved from a year ago, especially offensively. The offense held the Nittany Lions back last year with Christian Hackenberg, but that’s no longer the case now that Trace McSorley is running the show.

Indeed, McSorley has led the Penn State offense to an average of 35.3 points per game this season against a much tougher schedule than Michigan has faced. They put up 33 against Kent State, 39 against Pitt and 34 against Temple. McSorley is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 828 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 38 yards and a score.

And that Temple game was a bigger blowout than the 34-27 final last week.  The Nittany Lions controlled the game with a 21-13 edge in first downs.  They fumbled near the Owls' goal line, costing them seven points in the 2nd quarter.  Temple scored on a 9-yard touchdown drive after an interception.  A late fourth-quarter punt went off a Penn State blocker and rolled 30 yards to the 1-yard line, where Temple eventually scored.  The Nittany Lions only won by seven, failing to cover by a single point as 8-point favorites after Temple got a late 34-yard field goal.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings were decided by 12 points or less. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time Michigan beat Penn State by more than 19 points. That was a 20-point win and 11 meetings ago.

Michigan is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. The Wolverines are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. James Franklin is 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached. His teams are winning in this spot by 22.3 points per game on average.  Take Penn State Saturday.

25* SEC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -6.5

The Volunteers were getting a ton of hype coming into the season, and they clearly haven’t handled it very well mentally. They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State in their opener, and they only beat Ohio 28-19 last week as 27.5-point favorites.

However, when the Volunteers were on a huge stage at Bristol Motor Speedway against Virginia Tech, they lived up to their potential in a 45-24 victory. That’s the same VA Tech team that beat Boston College 49-0 last week.

I can guarantee you that Tennessee will put its best foot forward this week as this is the game that it has been looking forward to all offseason. I actually went against Tennessee last week and won on Ohio, stating that it would be looking ahead to Florida, and that was exactly what happened.

Now the Volunteers will be foaming at the mouth and licking their chops at another shot at the Gators this week. They have lost 11 straight meetings int his series, but they shouldn’t have lost last year. They blew a 27-14 lead in the final four minutes and lost 28-27.  They also lost 10-9 in 2014 at home.

This is the first time in a while that Tennessee clearly has a talent edge over Florida, and I expect that talent to shine inside a rowdy Neyland Stadium this time around. Getting this superior Tennessee team at under a touchdown on the spread is a gift from oddsmakers.

Not to mention, Florida finally thought it found its starting QB for the next few years Luke Del Rio, but he was injured last game and will miss a couple weeks with a knee injury. That’s a huge loss because Del Rio was playing well, completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 762 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

Now they’ll likely go with Austin Appleby, a former Purdue transfer, and I don’t expect him to handle this tough road environment very well. Appleby only completed 55% of his passes with a 19-to-19 TD/INT ratio at Purdue. Plus, he could be without leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13, 201, TD), who missed last week with a quad injury and is doubtful to return this week. Callaway scored the game-winning TD against the Vols last year.

It’s not like Florida has been tested, either. I would argue that its three opponents thus far are all worse than any of the three opponents Tennessee has faced. Florida has played three home games against UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. It only beat UMass 24-7 in the opener in what was a 10-7 game going into the 4th. It also failed to cover against North Texas last week.

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +44

It's well documented that Alabama struggles to cover against Group of 5 teams when stepping out of conference.  The Crimson Tide are always such huge favorites, but they aren't a team that likes to run up the scoreboard, making it difficult to cover these big numbers.

Alabama went 0-2 ATS against Group of 5 teams last year, winning by 27 over Middle Tennessee as 35-point favorites and by 34 over ULM as 38-point favorites.  They went 0-1 ATS against them in 2014, winning by 40 over Southern Miss as 45-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2013, winning by 42 over Georgia State as 54-point favorites and by 25 over Colorado State as 39-point favorites.  They went 0-2 against them in 2012, winning by 35 over WKU as 38-point favorites and by 33 over FAU as 40-point favorites.

If you count the non-cover against WKU this season in a 28-point win as 28.5-point favorites, depending when you bet it, then Alabama is now 0-8 ATS against Group of 5 teams over the past five seasons.  I look for that trend to continue this week as Alabama fails to cover as a 44-point favorite against Kent State.

Alabama is in a tough mental spot here.  It is coming off the huge 48-43 win against Ole Miss last week, getting revenge on the Rebels after losing the previous two meetings.  I look for the Crimson Tide to come out flat this week.  Plus, Kent State is head coach Nick Saban's alma mater, so he won't be looking to embarrass the Golden Flashes.

Kent State is a team that should be improved this season with 18 returning starters.  It is off to just a 1-2 start this season, but I came away from the 13-33 road loss to Penn State knowing that this team is improved.  Kent State was only outgained by 75 yards on the road by the Nittany Lions in a game that was closer than the final score showed.

Quarterback Mylik Mitchell has actually played pretty well thus far for the Golden Flashes.  He is completing 59.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception.  He has also rushed for 113 yards as a solid dual-threat guy.

The Golden Flashes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* USC/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country. The Utes almost always seem to have some magic at home, and this is a very small number for them to have to cover Friday night against a USC team that is in shambles right now.

The Utes have opened 3-0 and have been pretty dominant in the process. They are outscoring the opposition by an average of 14.0 points per game and outgaining them by 154 yards per game.

The key for the Utes has been the defense, which has been a staple since Kyle Whittingham took over. The Utes are only allowing 12.0 points and 263.7 yards per game this season. They have played both BYU and San Jose State, which are two capable offenses, too.

Utah has gotten some nice quarterback play from first-year starter Troy Williams. He is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 723 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The rushing attack is solid once again, averaging 169 yards per game thus far.

USC just isn’t responding to Clay Helton for whatever reason. The Trojans have now lost four of their last five games overall dating back to last season. They haven’t even been competitive in their two losses this season.

The Trojans were pummeled 52-6 by Alabama in the opener, getting held to just 194 total yards in the loss. Last week they were overmatched in a 10-27 road loss to Stanford as well, letting Christian McCaffrey do whatever he wanted to them.

The USC front seven defensively is the biggest issue. They only brought one starter back among the front seven this season. And the Trojans gave up 242 rushing yards to Alabama and 295 to Stanford. Now they are dealing with some injuries up front as DT Noah Jefferson, DT Khaliel Rodgers and LB Quinton Powell are all questionable, while DE Osa Masina has left the team.

The Trojans are also pushing the panic button offensively and moving on from junior QB Max Browne already. They are expected to start freshman Sam Darnold in his place this week, and I can guarantee you that Salt Lake City is not the place you want to make your first start as a freshman.

The difference in this game is going to be Utah's defensive line dominating USC's offensive line.  The Utes have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and that was on display last week as they recorded a whopping 10 sacks against San Jose State.  Eight different players accounted for sacks in that game.  Darnold is going to be under duress all game.

The home team has won three straight meetings. Utah is 35-13 ATS in its last 48 vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game. Whittingham is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. poor rushing teams who average 120 or fewer yards per game as the coach of Utah. The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson -9.5

I believe this line would be higher had the Tigers not struggled in their first two games of the season with narrow victories over Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24). They certainly could have been suffering a hangover from their loss in the National Championship, but they got it out of their system with a 59-0 win over South Carolina State last week.

Now that the Tigers are into conference season, expect them to put their best foot forward this week against Georgia Tech. And I believe that will be enough to win by double-digits, which is all it’s going to take to cover this 9.5-point spread Thursday.

While Clemson is undervalued after its shaky start, Georgia Tech is overvalued after its 3-0 start. But it’s not like the Yellow Jackets have beaten anyone of any significance. Their three wins have come against Vanderbilt, Boston College and Mercer. Vanderbilt is 1-2 this season, Mercer is an FCS foe, and Boston College just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0 last week.  And Georgia Tech was outgained by 82 yards by Boston College in a 17-14 win.

Clemson is every bit as good as it was last season, and if it plays like it did against Georgia Tech last year, it will run away with this game as well. The Tigers rolled the Yellow Jackets 43-24 at home in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. They outgained them 537-230 for the game, or by 307 total yards. They held Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack to just 71 rushing yards on 42 carries, or an average of 1.7 per carry.

This Clemson defense has been dominant again this season, giving up just 12.3 points, 250.0 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play.  The Tigers are holding opponents to 12.4 points and 126 yards per game less than their season averages.  They are also giving up only 92 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, which is 106 yards per game and 2.0 per carry less than their opponents' season averages.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) – off three or more consecutive unders, with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS since 1992.

Clemson is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games off a win by 35 points or more. The Tigers are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games after scoring 37 points or more last game. Dabo Swinney is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game as the coach of Clemson. The Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Georgia Tech is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Clemson Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Texas +36

By no means do I think North Texas is going to upset Florida.  But I certainly believe the Mean Green will be good enough to stay within 36 points of the Gators this week.  And it has more to do with Florida than North Texas.

Florida is coming off a 45-7 win over Kentucky as 14-point favorites, covering the spread by 24 points.  That effort has the Gators overvalued, and has the betting public quickly forgetting about the fact that Florida only beat UMass 24-7 at home the previous week as 35-point favorites, failing to cover by 18 points.  It's also worth mentioning that Florida only led UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter in that game.

Florida came back with a big effort last week in its SEC opener, which was to be expected.  But now the Gators are back in a flat spot here against North Texas, stepping out of conference play before facing rival Tennessee on the road next week.  There's no question the Gators will be looking ahead to that game, especially with all the back-and-forth clashing the teams did through the media in the offseason.

That blowout win over Kentucky was an aberration, too.  Florida won 10 games last year but only outscored opponents by 4.9 points per game.  It beat East Carolina by 7 at home as 20-point favorites, Vanderbilt by 2 at home as 20-point favorites, and Florida Atlantic by 6 (OT) as 29-point favorites at home.

You just can't trust this team when laying big points because their offense isn't explosive enough to cover these big numbers.  They only averaged 23.2 points and 334 yards per game last year.  It's also worth nothing that Florida's leading receiver Antonio Callaway (13 receptions, 201 yards, 2 TD) is doubtful Saturday with a quad injury, only further hampering their already lackluster offense.  Callaway was their leading receiver last year (35, 674, 4 TD) too.

North Texas was awful last year at 1-11, but it is going to be improved this season with 14 starters and 61 lettermen back and only 17 lettermen lost.  North Texas played SMU tough in the opener in a 21-34 loss.  That was the same SMU team that was tied with Baylor 6-6 at halftime last week on the road.

The Mean Green got in the win column last week with a convincing 41-20 win over Bethune-Cookman as 11-point favorites.  They outgained the Wildcats 450-231 for the game, or by 219 total yards.  They rushed for 329 yards and 6.5 per carry in the win.  It was certainly a confidence booster for this team as any win is big right now.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (NORTH TEXAS) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against home favorites (FLORIDA) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Florida is 0-6 ATS in home games after outrushing its last opponent by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  The Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Texas State +31

The Arkansas Razorbacks are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off a 41-38 (OT) win at TCU last week to pull off the upset as 10-point underdogs.  Now they are overvalued due to that win, and this is a sandwich game in which they will probably not show up for considering they have their SEC opener against Texas A&M on deck next week.

While the end result was a good road win over TCU last week, I would argue that the Razorbacks were outplayed and shouldn't have won.  That's pretty obvious when you consider TCU outgained Arkansas 572-403 for the game, or by 169 total yards.

That win over TCU also helped the betting public forget about Arkansas' stinker in the opener, but I have not.  Arkansas only beat Louisiana Tech 21-20 at home as 21-point favorites in the opener.  The Razorbacks even needed a TD with 6:37 left in the fourth quarter to pull out that win.

The Razorbacks only gained 297 total yards of offense against Louisiana Tech.  They gained 403 against TCU, but that was with overtime included, and TCU had given up 41 points to South Dakota State the previous week.  I simply don't believe this Arkansas offense is explosive enough to warrant being a 31-point favorite this week, especially in this tough sandwich/letdown spot.

Texas State really impressed me with its 56-54 (OT) win at Ohio in the opener as 17-point underdogs.  That's the same Ohio team that went on the road and beat Kansas 37-21 last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Bobcats outgained the Jayhawks 359 to 21 total yards in the first half of that game.

Unlike Arkansas, Texas State is in a great spot here as it actually didn't play last week.  So it has had a full two weeks to prepare for Arkansas.  Also, the reason Texas State is such a desirable underdog to me this week is because they have one of the best quarterbacks in the Sun Belt in senior Tyler Jones.

Jones has made 21 starts in his career while completing 65% of his passes for 3,800 yards and 30 touchdowns against 12 interceptions coming into the season.  Jones was brilliant against a very good Ohio defense in the opener, completing 40 of 55 passes for 418 yards and four touchdowns against two interceptions.  He also added another rushing score on the ground.  He can lead this Texas State offense on a few touchdown drives, which will be enough to cover the 31-point spread.

Texas State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.  The Bobcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five September games.  Remember, Arkansas lost at home 16-12 to Toledo last year, and nearly lost to LA Tech this year.  Take Texas State Saturday.

15* Georgia/Missouri SEC No-Brainer on Missouri +6.5

The Missouri Tigers had one of the best defenses in the country last year in allowing just 16.2 points and 302 yards per game.  Former defensive coordinator Barry Odom is now the head coach, and this defense will prove to be one of the best in the SEC once again this season.

But the reason Missouri should be improved this year is because of the offense.  Sophomore QB Drew Lock got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and now its his offense in 2016.  So far, I would have to say that Lock is making the most of it.

Yes, Missouri lost 11-26 at West Virginia in the opener, but it left a lot of points on the field as it gained 462 total yards, which should have led to more points.  The Tigers then racked up 647 total yards in a 61-21 beat down of Eastern Michigan at home last week to really flash their potential.

Lock has been impressive, throwing for 730 yards and six touchdowns without an interception.  Four different receivers already have at least 100 receiving yards through two games, so he is not short on weapons.  This is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the country this season.

Georgia had to erase a double-digit deficit to beat North Carolina in the opener in what was essentially a home game as it was played in Atlanta.  Then, the Bulldogs nearly suffered the biggest upset of the season last week as they only beat FCS foe Nicholls State 26-24 despite being 52.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 50.5 points!

That effort against Nicholls State shows that Georgia has plenty of problems and should not be favored by nearly a TD on the road against Missouri this week.  This will be a tough atmosphere as it's a night game at Memorial Stadium, and the Tigers always seem to rise to the occasion in these spots.

While the Tigers know they have their QB of the future in Lock, the Bulldogs still don't know who their quarterback is going to be.  Freshman Jacob Eason has struggled thus far, and senior Greyson Lambert hasn't been much better.  They are going to have to make some plays in the passing game against Missouri to come away with a road win, and I just don't know if they can do it.

The reason the Bulldogs are going to have to make some plays in the passing game is because Missouri is great at stopping the run, and the Bulldogs rely heavily on Nick Chubb, making this a good matchup for the Tigers.  They gave up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry in 2014, and 133 per game and 3.3 per carry in 2015.  They have allowed 4.1 per carry thus far in 2016.

Missouri went into Athens last year and played Georgia very tough, only losing 6-9 as 15.5-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  The Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - after one or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GEORGIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-18 (73.5) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +13.5

After seeing LSU in each of its first two games, its obvious that the Tigers came into the 2016 season as one of the most overrated teams in the country. I think a big part of that is because they have Leonard Fournette, but he simply cannot do it all as the offense is weak everywhere else.

LSU was outgained by 82 yards against Wisconsin in its 14-16 upset loss as 12.5-point favorites in the opener. Its offense was held to just 257 total yards. Brandon Harris continues to be a weak link as he went 12-of-21 passing for 131 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in the loss.

Even more concerning may have been the 34-13 home win over Jacksonville State last week as 28-point favorites. This game was a heck of a lot closer than the final score would indicate. The Tigers only outgained the Gamecocks by three yards 371-368. That’s really concerning that the defense gave up 368 yards to an FCS opponent.

And now the Tigers have a QB controversy after starting Harris but going to Danny Etling in the second quarter. He went 6-of-14 for 100 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But Etling didn’t complete a pass in the second half and threw his pick on six attempts after intermission. It’s amazing that the Tigers still cannot find a quarterback, though they are expected to go with Etling to start Saturday.

There’s no question that Mississippi State’s 20-21 loss to South Alabama as 27.5-point favorites in the opener was one of the biggest upsets of the season. However, from seeing what the Bulldogs did to South Carolina last week, it’s clear that the loss was more of a fluke than anything.  And the South Alabama loss has them undervalued.

Indeed, Mississippi State beat South Carolina 27-14 at home as 7.5-point favorites. This game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Bulldogs were up 24-0 at halftime before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple scores in garbage time. They outgained the Gamecocks 485-243 for the game, or by 242 total yards.

Unlike LSU, it's amazing the finds that head coach Dan Mullen has been able to make at quarterback. The loss of Dak Prescott is huge, but sophomore Nick Fitzgerald clearly has many of the same qualities. Fitzgerald went 19-of-29 passing for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against South Carolina. But he did most of his damage on the ground, rushing for 195 yards on 17 carries. He only played seven snaps against South Alabama before getting the starting nod last week.  I believe the Bulldogs would have never lost that game had Fitzgerald played the whole game.

Both meetings between these two teams over the past two seasons have gone right down to the wire. Mississippi State won 34-29 at LSU as 7-point underdogs in 2014, and covered again as 3-point dogs last year in a 19-21 home loss. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers 570-430 in 2014 and 378-337 in 2015.

Mississippi State is a perfect 8-0 ATS after paying a game at home over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games. The Tigers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Roll with Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Colorado/Michigan CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Colorado +19

The Colorado Buffaloes might be the most underrated team in the entire country this season.  They entered 2016 as the most experienced team in the Pac-12 with 18 starters and 63 lettermen back in the fourth year under head coach Mike MacIntyre.

It's bowl or bust this season for MacIntyre, and his team has really responded in the first two weeks.  Colorado beat Colorado State 44-7 on a neutral field in the opener, outgaining the Rams 578-225 for the game, or by 353 total yards.  It then beat Idaho State 56-7 at home after taking a 45-0 lead into halftime and calling off the dogs, outgaining the Bengals 597-96 for the game, or by 501 total yards.

Michigan has taken care of a couple cupcakes while opening 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season, which has it overvalued right now.  It beat Hawaii 63-3 before topping UCF 51-14 at home.  But while the Buffaloes have outgained their first two opponents by an average of 427 yards per game, Michigan has only outgained its two foes by 198 yards per game.  The Wolverines weren't as dominant as those two scores indicate.

While Colorado certainly won't be overlooking Michigan, I could see the Wolverines overlooking the Buffaloes and looking ahead to their Big Ten opener against Penn State next week.  I don't think there's as big of a difference between these teams as the line would indicate, and I certainly don't foresee Michigan winning by three touchdowns or more, which is what it would take for the Wolverines to cover the spread.

Colorado did go just 2-5 on the road last season, but its losses only came by 8.5 points per game away from Boulder.  The Buffaloes have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games the past two seasons by a touchdown or less, so they have simply been a bad-luck team.  With their experience and talent level this season, they are ready to turn the corner.

Michigan is 18-33 ATS in its last 51 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wolverines are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Take Colorado Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UNLV +13

The Central Michigan Chippewas are in a massive letdown spot here Saturday.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in school history with a 30-27 road win at Oklahoma State last week.  Certainly, these players are going to be feeling good about themselves now and not give UNLV the attention it deserves.

UNLV has one of its best teams in recent memory in 2016.  It has 14 starters back this year after having just 10 starters back last season.  And while the Rebels went 3-9 last year, they were within a touchdown in the 4th quarter in nine of their 12 games, so they were better than their record would indicate.

After putting up 28.6 points and 405 yards per game last season offensively, this is now going to be one of the best offenses that UNLV has had in a long time.  They beat Jackson State 63-13 in the opener and racked up 503 total yards.

But I was more impressed with UNLV's 21-42 loss at UCLA last week as 27.5-point underdogs.  That was actually a 28-21 game entering the 4th quarter before the Bruins scored the final 14 points to put it away.  The fact that they can hang with UCLA for three-plus quarters on the road shows their potential.

Central Michigan is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by an average of 7.2 points per game in this spot.  The Rebels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  UNLV is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +6.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores should not be catching nearly a touchdown against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets this week.  This game is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, and I actually expect the Commodores to win outright because they are the better team.

Derek Mason is in his third season at Vanderbilt and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back.  The Commodores laid an egg in their opener by squandering a 10-0 lead to South Carolina and losing 13-10, but I believe that loss has them undervalued.

I jumped on Vanderbilt last week as only 2.5-point favorites over Middle Tennessee.  The Commodores did not disappoint, rolling to a 47-24 home victory over an underrated MTSU outfit.  They finally got their offense going, and their defense remains one of the best in the country.

Indeed, the Commodores gave up just 21.0 points per game last year and brought back seven starters from that team.  They have one of the best sets of linebackers in the entire SEC led by Zach Cunningham, who had 103 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss last season.

Having great linebackers is key against Georgia Tech and its triple-option offense.  Mason and Commodores relish a matchup like this of the hard-hitting variety.  They will be up to the task to slow down the triple-option this week.

Georgia Tech went 3-9 last season, and I don't believe it is much better at all in 2016.  It only beat Boston College 17-14 in the opener and only gained 238 yards offensively in that contest.  I wasn't all that impressed with the 35-10 win over Mercer, either.  The Yellow Jackets only outgained the Bears by 124 total yards in that game, giving up 320 yards defensively.

While Vanderbilt cannot afford to look ahead after that loss to South Carolina as it needs every win it can get to make a bowl game, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Georgia Tech is looking ahead to its showdown at home against No. 5 Clemson this coming Thursday.  Look ahead or not, I still believe the Commodores have the more talented team overall, and certainly the better defense.

Plays against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) - after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Vanderbilt is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Commodores are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are undervalued right now because of their 13-48 road loss to Washington in the opener.  But that game was closer than the final score would indicate.  The Scarlet Knights were only outgained 304-380 in that game, or by 76 total yards, and Washington is one of the best teams in the country.

I still believe Rutgers is going to be one of the more improved teams in the country as the season progresses.  They had 16 starters back for new head coach Chris Ash, who was the co-defensive coordinator under Urban Meyer the last two years.  Ash inherited a ton of talent.

Rutgers staked Howard to 14 points early last week, but then showed its potential by winning the rest of the game 52-0 for a 52-14 victory.  The Rutgers' defense limited Howard to five total yards in the second half and will build off of that performance this week.

New Mexico is overvalued because it finally made a bowl game last year.  But the Lobos clearly have some problems right now because they lost to an awful New Mexico State team 31-32 on the road as 11-point favorites last week.  They managed just 336 total yards in that loss.

Hurting New Mexico is the fact that it's without arguably its two best players right now.  RB Teriyon Gipson, who rushed for 848 yards and six touchdowns last year, is out with a concussion.  Senior middle linebacker Dakota Cox, who is the leader of the defense, is also out with a concussion.  Cox led the team in tackles (97) last year and had five sacks.  He was MWC Player of the Week with his performance against South Dakota in their opener.  Those two losses cannot be overstated.

The fact of the matter is that Rutgers is vastly more talented team in this matchup with New Mexico.  If the Scarlet Knights want to make a bowl game this year, they know they must take care of business this week against New Mexico.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 52-18 (74.3%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Ohio +27

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a prime letdown spot today.  They are coming off their huge win over Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway last week, and now they have rival Florida on deck next week to open SEC play.

The Volunteers won't be able to help but look forward to that game against Florida.  They have lost 11 straight to the Gators, and there has been a ton of back-and-forth clashing between the teams through the media.  The Vols won't give Ohio the attention it deserves this week.

Ohio is certainly no pushover.  It went 8-5 last season and is clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  But the Bobcats come undervalued due to their 56-54 loss to Texas State in overtime in their opener.  They gained 630 total yards in that game and should have won.

But the Bobcats came back last week and played up to their potential, outgaining Kansas 359 to 21 yards in first half en route to a 37-21 road victory.  Their offense is now averaging 563 yards per game through two games, and they certainly have the firepower to keep up with Tennessee in this one.  QB Greg Windham has already thrown for 560 yards and five touchdowns this season, and they had two 100-yard rushers last week against Kansas.

Tennessee comes in overvalued because of its 45-24 win over Virginia Tech last week.  However, that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Vols were actually outgained by the Hokies 330-400, or by 70 total yards.  But they took advantage of five fumbles lost by the Hokies to break the game open.

Remember, Tennessee needed overtime to beat Appalachian State at home in the opener 20-13.  Appalachian State missed an extra point short field goal in regulation.  Tennessee also fumbled the ball at the goal line in OT and was lucky to recover it in the end zone to get the win.

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (OHIO U) - after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-14 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Ohio is 6-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons.  Frank Solich is 13-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as the coach of the Bobcats.  The Bobcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Take Ohio Saturday.

20* Baylor/Rice ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Rice +31.5

Rice hasn’t shown great on the road in its first two games with tough matchups against Western Kentucky and Army. After losing both contests and failing to cover the spread in each, I believe Rice is now undervalued and catching too many points here as 31.5-point dogs to Baylor.

But Western Kentucky was one of the best non-Power 5 teams in the country last year, and it played Alabama reasonably tough last week.  Also, Army is one of the most improved teams in the country.  That was evident when it went on the road and beat Temple 28-13 as 14-point dogs in Week 1.

Rice will be looking forward to this game because it will be its first home and and it will be on the National TV stage with ESPN providing the television coverage. The Owls will show up, and when they do, they should be good enough to stay within 31.5 points of Baylor.  I still believe the Owls are improved this season with 16 starters back compared to only 9 last year.

The Bears clearly aren’t the same dominant team they have been the past few years. They failed to cover as 50-point favorites in a 55-7 win over Northwestern State, and also didn’t cover as 34.5-point favorites in a 40-13 home win over SMU last week.

The game against SMU was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Bears only outgained the Mustangs by 131 total yards in the game, 536-405. This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Bears blew it open in the second half.

Being tied at halftime against SMU at home is a sign that the Bears are vulnerable.  That's especially the case when SMU was missing starting QB Matt Davis in that game.  Backup QB Ben Hicks really hurt SMU by throwing three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown.

Yes, Baylor has gone 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven meetings with Rice. However, only once during this stretch have they beaten Rice by more than 25 points. This is a much better Rice team than the one the Bears faced last year as the Owls have seven more starters back.

This is a much worse Bears team as they brought back just 10 starters this season and lost head coach Art Briles.  They had 18 starters back last year, so they have eight less starters back this year.  The Bears also have only one returning starters along their offensive and defensive lines, so they aren't very strong up front.

I think this will be a tougher test for Baylor in its first road game than most are thinking.  This is a young team, and that first road game is always tough.  I also think the Bears could be looking ahead to their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week.

Rice is 72-44 ATS in its last 116 home games, including 40-20 ATS in its last 60 games as a home underdog. The Owls are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Rice Friday.

20* Houston/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

I believe the Houston Cougars are being way over-hyped right now, which has them overvalued as 7.5-point favorites on the road this week against one of the top contenders in the American Athletic in Cincinnati.

The Cougars went 13-1 last season and have opened 2-0 this year with a win over Oklahoma already. While there’s no question they are a very good team, I would argue that they should not be ranked as high as No. 6, and they certainly aren’t one of the best 10 teams in the country.

Star QB Greg Ward Jr. is banged up right now with a shoulder injury and had to sit out last week against Lamar. He is expected to play this week, but he will still be feeling the effects of that injury. Also, star RB Duke Catalon is nursing an ankle injury that forced him out last week, and he may play as well but won’t be 100%.

Cincinnati may have been the best 7-6 team in the country last year. It outgained its opponents by 129 yards per game while averaging 538 per game on offense. That offense is loaded again, and the defense should be much improved with eight starters back.

The defense has played very well the first two weeks in limiting Tennessee-Martin and Purdue to a combined 27 points while forcing eight turnovers. The offense really got going against Purdue with 512 total yards with 262 on the ground and 250 through the air. That’s an improved Purdue team from the Big Ten, so a 38-20 road win over the Boilermakers is nothing to laugh about, especially considering the Bearcats were only 3-point favorites.

Cincinnati wants revenge on Houston after losing 30-33 on the road as 9-point underdogs last year. It outgained Houston 589-427 for the game, or by 162 total yards, and should have won. The Bearcats are still 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cougars.

Cincinnati has one of the best home-field advantages in college football. It is now 27-5 at home over the past five-plus seasons. Rarely will you see the Bearcats ever catching points at home because of this, especially not more than a touchdown like they are against the Cougars. The value is clearly with them in this game.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Cincinnati is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 conference games. The Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) – excellent passing team from last season – had a completion pct of 62% or better are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-17 (74.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

15* UNC/Illinois ACC vs. Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +7.5

For starters, the Fighting Illini are going to want revenge from their 14-48 loss at North Carolina last season. Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere as fans in Champaign are excited after their 52-3 victory over Murray State last week.

Illinois was better than its 5-7 record would indicate last season. It went through turmoil at the head coach position, but still nearly made a bowl game. Also, five of the seven losses came by 11 points or less, so that game against UNC was one of only two in which the Illini weren’t competitive last year.

The Fighting Illini have new life under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith, who was with the Bears for nine years and the Buccaneers for two. He inherited some nice talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball where seven starters returned.

The key was bringing back one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Wes Lunt, the former Oklahoma State transfer. This offense has really clicked with him at QB. Lunt threw for 2,761 yards and 14 touchdowns against six interceptions last year. He welcomed backed two of his top three receivers this year, and leading rusher Ke’Shawn Vaughn (723 yards, 6 TD).

The offense really looked good against Murray State in the 52-3 win. The Fighting Illini racked up 515 total yards, including 226 passing and three touchdowns from Lunt. The defense was equally impressive under new defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson, a five-time Pro Bowler. The Illini held Murray State to just 165 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

I believe UNC is one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 11-3 last year. It lost its most important player in QB Marquise Williams, and the defense is still terrible, just as it has been ever since Larry Fedora took over as head coach.

That was evident in the 24-33 loss to Georgia last week. UNC gave up 474 total yards to the Bulldogs and managed only 315 yards on offense, getting outgained by 159 yards for the game. New QB Mitch Trubisky struggled, completing just 24-of-40 passes for 156 yards with zero touchdowns.

But the real problem was stopping the run as the Tar Heels gave up 289 yards and 5.6 per carry to the Bulldogs. They will get shredded again on the ground by a Fighting Illini team that rushed for 287 yards and 7.2 per carry against Murray State. It’s also worth noting the Illini held the Racers to -10 rushing yards on 26 carries, which is impressive against any opponent.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) – in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 140-79 (63.9%) ATS since 1992.

Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina. Fedora is also 2-10 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Tar Heels. UNC is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

20* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +15.5

Certainly, a 20-25 home loss to FCS opponent Northern Iowa is concerning for Iowa State. The Cyclones clearly didn’t play their best game, and that wasn’t the way that former Toledo coach Matt Campbell wanted to start his tenure in Ames.

But I’m not going to look too much into that result. Iowa State always played Iowa tough, and it will be even more determined this week after that loss. Not to mention, Northern Iowa is one of the best FCS teams in the country as it was ranked No. 3 coming into the season.

Plus, Iowa has just as much reason to be concerned even though it beat Miami (Ohio) 45-21 last week. The Redhawks basically gave that game away by committing three turnovers that set the Hawkeyes up with great scoring opportunities.

In fact, Iowa was actually outgained by Miami (Ohio) by 20 yards. The defense gave up 424 total yards and 25 first downs to the Redhawks, while Iowa only managed 404 total yards and 17 first downs. That was a Miami team that went a combined 5-31 over the past three seasons.

I believe Iowa remains overvalued early in the season after going 12-0 in the regular season last year.  It failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites against Miami in the opener.  That game was clearly closer than the final score would indicate when you look at the stats.  At the same time, Iowa State is undervalued off a 3-9 season and a loss to UNI in its opener.  It’s the perfect storm value-wise.

I still think Iowa State is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Campbell had 13 starters back and this team had a great offseason. The offense is loaded with studs at the skill positions in QB Joel Lanning, RB Mike Warren and WR Allen Lazard. The defense had eight starters back this year and will be improved.

The key here is that Iowa State always plays Iowa tough. In fact, Iowa State is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings. All five meetings were decided by 14 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer, so getting 15 points is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The road team has won each of the last four meetings outright while going 4-0 ATS.

Plays on a road team (IOWA ST) – after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Iowa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite. The Cyclones are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Vanderbilt -4.5

Vanderbilt's 13-10 loss to South Carolina in its opener has it undervalued heading into this home showdown with Conference-USA foe Middle Tennessee State.  This is a very short number for an SEC team at home against a C-USA opponent.

I still believe Vanderbilt is going to be much better in 2016.  Derek Mason is in Year 3 and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back while losing only 16 letter winners.

The Commodores were better than their 4-8 record would indicate last year as they took both Ole Miss and Florida down to the wire on the road.  Their defense gave up only 21.0 points per game last year and returned seven starters from that unit.

The offense will be improved, too, even after that poor performance against South Carolina in which they blew a 10-0 lead after it looked like they were going to roll early.  Ralph Webb rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last year and should get on track this week.  Webb went for 97 yards against South Carolina last week.

Middle Tennessee went 7-6 last year and has just 12 starters and 40 lettermen back while losing 30 letter winners.  The Blue Raiders are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team from Conference-USA, but they're a big step down in competition from South Carolina.

Yes, Middle Tennessee is coming off a 55-0 shutout victory over Alabama A&M, but it was a 47.5-point favorite in that game.  That's not as impressive as it looks.  The step up in competition this week will be felt.

Last year, Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Middle Tennessee 17-13 as 2-point underdogs.  It outgained the Blue Raiders 414-320 for the game, or by 94 total yards.  The Commodores rushed for 237 yards in that contest and will have their way on the ground again.

Middle Tennessee only has five starters back on defense and loses each of its top four tacklers from last year.  Head coach Rick Stockstill clearly doesn't make defending the run a priority.  The Blue Raiders have given up at least 183 rushing yards per game in five of the past six seasons.

Vanderbilt knows it is better than it showed against South Carolina and will be highly motivated to prove it at home Saturday.  This line is dropping because bettors don't like what they saw from Vanderbilt last week, and they are overreacting to MTSU's win over Alabama A&M.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1992.


The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. C-USA opponents.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC foes.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke -5

Wake Forest was supposed to be better entering Year 3 under Dave Clawson.  Well, that's clearly not the case after it only beat Tulane 7-3 at home as 14-point favorites.

That's really bad when you consider that Tulane went 3-9 last year and has a first-year head coach this season.  This is a Tulane team that gave up 36.3 points per game last year.

Wake had a terrible offense last year in scoring just 17.4 points per game.  It's terrible once again as the Demon Deacons only managed 7 points and 175 total yards against Tulane.  The Green Wave actually outgained them by 105 yards for the game.

Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country year in and year out under David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils have gone a combined 28-13 over the past three-plus years.

The Blue Devils got off to a great start to their 2016 season by beating NC Central 49-6 and outgaining them by 423 yards in the process, taking care of business just as they were expected to, and unlike Wake Forest.

Duke has had Wake Forest's number in recent year.  It has won four straight meetings, including a 41-21 victory in its lone home meeting.  All four wins came by 6 points or more.  Duke is now 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Demon Deacons.  The Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.

Only having to lay 5 points on the clearly superior team at home is a gift from oddsmakers.  Wake has gone 3-9 each of the past two seasons and doesn't appear to be getting much better after that woeful performance against Tulane last week.  Roll with Duke Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +17

There’s no question that a home loss to Southern Miss is a little concerning for Kentucky fans, but considering they were only 3.5-point favorites, it shouldn’t be that much of a shocker.

This was a Southern Miss team that returned 13 starters and 55 lettermen from a team that went 9-5 and made the Conference USA Championship Game. That includes sensational QB Nick Mullens, who threw for 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last year.

And the Wildcats were dominating this game with a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to play in the first half. They completely fell apart from that point-forward, getting outscored 34-0 the rest of the way by the Golden Eagles.

I still come away with some positives as Kentucky’s offense really got going behind talented sophomore Drew Barker, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns. This is an offense that returned nine starters from last year, and Barker wasn’t even one of them. This offense can keep them in the game against Florida.

Yes, Kentucky’s defense left a lot to be desired, but the good news is that its up against a Florida team that once again has no offense in 2016. I’m way more concerned with Florida’s lackluster 24-7 opening win against UMass as 34.5-point favorites than Kentucky’s loss to Southern Miss.

Florida is a team I am way down on this year. It got very lucky to win the SEC East last year with so many close wins. Five of its 10 wins came by a touchdown or less, including a 31-24 home win over ECU, a fluke 28-27 home win over Tennessee, an ugly 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, and a 20-14 (OT) win at home against Florida Atlantic.

In fact, the Gators only outgained teams last year by 24 yards per game and outscored them by 4.9 points per game.  There's no way they should have won 10 games with those numbers.  The Gators’ true colors showed against the big boys in their final three games with a 25-point loss to Florida State, a 14-point loss to Alabama, and a 34-point loss to Michigan in the bowl game.

Florida’s offense managed just 334 yards per game and 23.2 points per game last season. That offense looked shaky in the 24-7 win over UMass again. The Gators only managed 363 total yards, including 107 rushing and 3.7 per carry.

The Gators were only leading UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter before winning the 4th 14-0 to pull away. This was a UMass team that went just 3-9 with 19 starters back last year, and it only returned 10 starters this year. It’s also a team that gave up 31.4 points and 448 yards per game to opponents last year.

Kentucky will be highly motivated to end its 29-game losing streak to Florida; the longest active streak in the country. It has come close each of the last two years. It lost 30-36 (OT) at Florida as 17.5-point dogs in 2014, and 9-14 at home as 3.5-point dogs last year. The Wildcats weren’t overmatched in either game, and they certainly won’t be overmatched enough to lose by more than 17 points in this 2016 meeting.

Florida is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the past three seasons. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3

The Kansas Jayhawks come into the 2016 season way undervalued after going 0-12 last year.  I have no doubt they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country with 16 starters back after having only six starters back in David Beaty's first season in 2015.

Beaty has done all the right things in Lawrence this offseason to improve this team.  Their strength training, which is well documented, will pay huge dividends.  They are bigger, stronger and faster this season, and several players who were forced into action as underclassmen last year are now a year older.

The improvements couldn't have shown more than they did in a 55-6 victory over Rhode Island in their opener.  Their three quarterbacks combined for six touchdown passes as they racked up 570 yards of total offense.  Their defense limited Rhode Island to just 219 total yards and forced three turnovers, outgaining them by 351 yards.

Ohio is a solid team under Frank Solich, but a 54-56 (OT) loss in their opener at home to Texas State as 17-point favorites is certainly concerning for the Bobcats.  They gave up 546 total yards in the loss, including 440 passing.  Kansas should have its way through the air against the Bobcats as well.

Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games vs. MAC opponents.  The Bobcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 6 points or fewer in its previous game.

The Jayhawks are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games vs. non-conference opponents.  With a small number of only 3, basically all they have to do is win this game to cover the spread.  It's time to hop on the Jayhawks' bandwagon now because in a few weeks bettors are going to realize this team is no longer a pushover.  Take Kansas Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6

The Penn State Nittany Lions are a team I'm very high on this season.  They are in Year 3 under James Franklin, and he clearly has his best team yet.  He came into 2016 with 14 starters back and only 18 lettermen lost.

But the Nittany Lions are undervalued in 2016 because they are coming off back-to-back disappointing 7-6 seasons.  But now Franklin has the QB he recruited in Trace McSorley, and not the one that was handed to him in Christian Hackenberg, who wasn't a fit for the offense he prefers to run.

McSorley is a dual-threat guy who flashed that talent in a 33-13 win over Penn State in the opener.  He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 47 yards.  The offense has nine starters back around him, so he doesn't have to do it all.  That includes one of the best RB's in the country in Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 1,076 yards and 7 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry last year.  Barkley rushed for 105 yards and a TD in the opener.

Penn State has had an elite defense every year under Franklin, giving up 18.6 points and 279 yards per game in 2014, and 21.8 points and 324 yards per game in 2015.  They held Kent State to 279 total yards and forced three turnovers in the opener.  Now the offense will finally catch up to the defense this season.

While I like Pitt and its direction, I don't believe it should be favored against a top-tier Big Ten opponent.  I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, so getting 6 points is an added bonus and a ton of value in a game that could easily go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

Pitt played in a ton of close games last season en route to going 8-5 in Pat Narduzzi's first season.  In fact, a whopping eight of those 13 games were decided by a TD or less.  These teams play similar styles as they like to run the ball and play good defense, which will lead to a close game.

Pitt wasn't impressive at all in its 28-7 win over FCS foe Villanova as 28-point favorites in the opener.  It only managed 261 yards of total offense while outgaining Villanova by only 89 yards.  The Panthers continue to be held back at the QB position as Nathan Peterman threw for only 175 yards.  James Connor returned from injury after missing most of last year and only rushed for 53 yards on 17 carries.  He may only be a shell of his former self this season.

Plays against a home team (PITTSBURGH) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1992.

Franklin is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are winning 38.9 to 13.4 on average, or by 25.5 points per game.  This guy is the real deal and will do big things at Penn State sooner rather than later.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Syracuse +15

The Syracuse Orange are a team on the rise under first-year head coach Dino Babers. He led Bowling Green to an 18-9 record in his two years there and the MAC title last year. We all saw how poor Bowling Green looked in a 10-77 loss to Ohio State in their first game without him.

Babers stepped into a great situation at Syracuse with 16 returning starters. This is a team that lost only 17 lettermen from a year ago and will be much more competitive in ACC play after a down 4-8 season last year.

Babers brings a great offensive mind and calls his own plays. This offense racked up 554 total yards in a 33-7 win over Colgate in the opener. Sophomore QB Eric Dungey was brilliant, completing 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Eight starters are back on offense this year.

The defense was equally impressive in allowing just 143 total yards and 11 first downs to Colgate. This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the country this season with eight starters and each of the top seven tacklers back from a year ago.

I think Louisville comes in overvalued here as more than a two-touchdown road favorite because of its emphatic 70-14 win over Charlotte last week. Well, Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the FBS as it recently just joined the FBS. The 49ers went 2-10 last year in their first season as members of the FBS and got outscored by 18.8 points per game.

I really think this is a tough spot for Louisville, too. It will be looking ahead to its showdown against Florida State next week, which will determine if the Cardinals have a shot in the stacked ACC Atlantic Division. I don’t believe the Cardinals will give the Orange their full attention as a result.

Syracuse is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off a win by 17 points or more. The Orange are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They went 3-3 SU at home last year with all three losses coming to ranked teams in LSU, Pitt & Clemson by 10 points or less.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-87 (63.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Orange should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals tonight.  Take Syracuse Friday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State -4.5

Despite bringing back just 11 starters last year, the Seminoles still managed to win at least 10 games for the fourth straight season.  Now they are loaded with 17 starters back in 2016 in what will be one of Jimbo Fisher's best teams yet.

Eleven starters return on offense in all.  Every player that started last year is expected to start again except for at quarterback, where freshman Deondre Francois has played his way into the starting role for the opener.  This kid is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the country, and I'm expecting a coming out party similar to that of Jameis Winston against Pittsburgh a few years back.

Francois won't have to do too much considering the talent is loaded around him.  He can give the ball to Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry last year.  Almost every receiver who caught a pass last year is back, led by Travis Rudolph, who caught 59 balls for 916 yards and seven touchdowns.  The Seminoles have one of the best offensive lines in the country as well.

Defensively, Florida State gave up just 17.5 points and 337 yards per game last year.  They do only have six returning starters on defense, but the replacements are some of the top recruits in the country.  Fisher has always had a stout defense as the Seminoles have allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five of his first season seasons.  That will be the case again.

But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.

Ole Miss had a magical 10-3 season last year with 16 returning starters and a plethora of NFL talent.  But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.  While it's not a full-blown rebuilding year, there's no question that the Rebels will take a couple steps back in 2016.

While this game will technically be played on a neutral field, there's no question the Seminoles will have more fans there as it's played in Orlando.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays against any Any team (OLE MISS) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Florida State Monday.

15* Notre Dame/Texas ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5

I’m huge on Texas this year and believe it will compete for the Big 12 Championship. I love third-year head coaches like Charlie Strong, especially in situations like these. He didn’t have the players he wanted his first two seasons, but now he has mostly his players in place to execute his schemes in Year 3.

In fact, Strong welcomes back 15 starters and 52 lettermen this year, making this his most experienced team yet in Austin. The key will be improvement on offense, which won’t be a problem with new coordinator Sterling Gilbert, who guided Tulsa’s offense to over 500 yards of offense per game last year.

Tyrone Swoopes and stud freshman Shane Buechele are expected to share snaps this game. They will run Gilbert’s veer and shoot system, which is going to be completely different than what Notre Dame was up against last year. The change in scheme will cause some problems for Notre Dame’s defense as the Longhorns have the element of surprise working in their favor.

Strong should have his best defense yet at Texas with eight starters and seven of the top nine tacklers back from last year. The Longhorns are absolutely loaded with talent on this side of the ball, and several of the freshmen who played big minutes last year are now sophomores and will be improved greatly.

Many expect Notre Dame to compete for a national title this year, but I’m not seeing it. I see this as more of a rebuilding year for head coach Brian Kelly and company. That’s because the Fighting Irish return only four starters. They lose four of their top five receivers on offense, three starters along the offensive line, and six of their top eight tacklers on defense.

There’s no question that Texas has been working extra hard all offseason to try and avenge its ugly 3-38 loss at Notre Dame to open the 2015 season. The Longhorns will want this one badly, and now I would argue that they are actually the better team. They have 15 starters back compared to nine for Notre Dame, while last year they only had 11 starters back compared to 16 for the Fighting Irish.

This line has been bet down from 4.5 to 3 in a lot of places for good reason. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) – with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Take Texas Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3

I believe the Georgia Bulldogs will hit the ground running in Kirby Smart’s first season on the job. Talent certainly was not the issue for this team under Mark Richt, who cashed in four 10-win seasons in his past five years. While I don’t agree with his firing, I do believe Smart will do just as good of a job, if not better, here.

Smart inherits a ton of talent and experience with 14 returning starters. The offense figures to be vastly improved with eight starters back and likely better play at the quarterback position. Greyson Lambert will get the nod after completing 63.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year. Look for the senior to step up his game this season.

The good news is that the Bulldogs will have an elite running game now that Nick Chubb is back and healthy. They started 4-1 last year with their only loss to Alabama, but then Chubb was out for the year with a knee injury suffered against Tennessee and the Bulldogs leading 24-3. They would go on to lose that game. Chubb still finished with 747 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in five-plus games.

The biggest thing Smart adds to this team is his expertise on defense. And he should come close to matching Georgia’s numbers last year on this side of the ball. It gave up just 16.9 points and 306 yards per game. Four of the top seven tacklers and six starters return.

I have a very good feeling that UNC was a one-hit wonder last year. It came out of nowhere to win 11 games and the Coastal Division. But now the hype is too strong heading into 2015, and the Tar Heels are sure to take a step back.

They do return 14 starters, but they lose their best player in QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 948 yards and 13 scores. The Tar Heels will turn to junior Mitch Trubisky, who has some massive shoes to fill.

Defensively, the Tar Heels only gave up 24.5 points per game last year after giving up 39.0 in 2014. However, they still gave up 436 yards per game and weren’t that good of a defense. They surrendered 17.8 yards per point last year after giving up 12.8 yards per point in 2014. That was more luck than anything.

North Carolina is 2-11 in its last 13 road openers and went 0-3 last year in games played on a neutral field, including a 13-17 loss to South Carolina in the opener. That was an awful Gamecocks team that finished 3-9 on the season. The Tar Heels really struggled against the big boys last year in Baylor and Clemson as well.

I also like the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Bulldogs as it's played in Atlanta and not even close to a neutral field.  Plus, Chubb and the Georgia rushing attack should have their way all game.  UNC surrendered 247 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry last year.  In its final three games, it gave up 308 rushing yards to Virginia Tech, 319 to Clemson and a ridiculous 645 to Baylor.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.  Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin +10

I was impressed with Paul Chryst in his first season in Madison. He took a team that returned just 11 starters and won 10 games. Two losses came by a combined 10 points, and the other was against eventual national champion Alabama in the season opener.

Now Chryst has 12 starters and 51 lettermen back in 2016, and these players are familiar with his systems. Senior RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy last year, otherwise the story may have been different in the Big Ten West. Clement is now healthy and ready to carry the load offensively as the Badgers get back to ground-and-pound after a sub-par season on the ground last year.

I really don’t think the Badgers are going to miss QB Joel Stave that much. After all, he threw just 11 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions last season. Fifth-year senior Bart Houston won the job in camp and should be able to surpass Stave’s mediocre numbers this season. But the key on offense is having four returning starters and 62 career starts along the offensive line.

Defensively, Wisconsin gave up just 13.7 points and 269 yards per game last season. Now they have six starters and four of their top six tacklers back from last year. They are very strong up front with five starters back among their front seven.

That’s key because the Badgers only gave up 95 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry last season. Since LSU lacks a passing game as Brandon Harris has disappointed and will start again, it’s going to be all Leonard Fournette offensively for the Tigers. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Badgers, who will rise to the occasion and hold Fournette in check.

This is essentially a home game for the Badgers as it will be held in their home state of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. We saw two years ago Wisconsin hold a 24-13 lead over LSU in Houston at the end of the 3rd quarter, only to get outscored 15-0 in the final period and lose 28-24. I look for this meeting to go right down to the wire as well, thus getting 10 points is a value, especially with the location of the game and the favorable matchup.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

20* UCLA/Texas A&M CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies failed to meet expectations last year because their offense was the worst of the Sumlin era. They only put up 27.8 points per game after averaging 41.3 points per game in his first three years on the job. But you can’t hold a Sumlin offense down for long.

The problem last year was at quarterback as both Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray struggled. Both transferred in the offseason, paving the way for former Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight to take over the job in 2016. He made 15 career starts with the Sooners and threw for 3,424 yards while also rushing for 853 yards and 5.6 per carry. He’ll be a big upgrade at the position.

Also helping out Knight is the fact that he has arguably the best set of receivers in the country. Each of the top five receivers are back from last year. Leading the way are Christian Kirk (80 receptions, 1,009 yards, 7 TD last year), Josh Reynolds (51, 907, 5 TD), Ricky Seals-Jones (45, 560, 4 TD) and Speedy Noil (21, 226, 2 TD). Noil will miss this game due to suspension, but that’s not a big loss.

The sad part about last season is that the Aggies wasted their best defense of the Sumlin era. John Chavis was one of the most underrated coordinator hires in the country last season, and he helped guide the Aggies into giving up just 22.0 points and 380 yards per game.

Now the Aggies return seven starters and seven of the top eight tacklers on D, making this one of the best stop units in the SEC. They have the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett (12.5 sacks last year) and Daeshon Hall (7 sacks), who will be key in this game in getting after Josh Rosen and UCLA’s passing attack.

While there’s no denying that Rosen is one of the best QB’s in the country, I am concerned about the lack of experience around him as the Bruins return just four starters on offense. They lose four of their top five receivers from last year and leading rusher Paul Perkins (1,343 yards, 14 TD), who did everything for this team.

Sumlin certainly knows how to get his teams ready for the season. The Aggies have gone 5-0 to start each of the last two seasons. They beat South Carolina 52-28 on the road in their opener as 10-point dogs in 2014, then stomped Pac-12 opponent Arizona State 38-17 on a neutral field to open 2015.

Now the Aggies get to play at home, where they are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 September games. I look for a hostile atmosphere in College Station to be key in guiding the Aggies to a win and cover Saturday afternoon.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* K-State/Stanford CFB Friday No-Brainer on Stanford -14

Stanford head coach David Shaw continues to do a tremendous job in recruiting. Despite returning just 12 starters last year, the Cardinal went 12-2 and beat Iowa by 29 points in the Rose Bowl. Now they return just 11 starters, but that’s not a big concern given the talent level on hand.

The biggest concern is replacing Kevin Hogan at quarterback. But senior Ryan Burns has been waiting his turn and is prepared to take over the job. He stands 6’5″ and 233 pounds and was a highly rated recruit as a high school player in Virginia, but he couldn’t find the field because of Hogan’s success.

The good news is that Burns will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey, who should have won the Heisman Trophy last year. McCaffrey broks Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season last year. He finished with 2,019 rushing yards and 645 receiving yards and was a beast on special teams as well.

The Stanford defense figures to be dominant once again with six starters back from a unit that gave up 22.6 points per game last year. The D only had three starters back last season, so improvement can be expected on this side of the ball. Look for the Cardinal to get back to the 16.4 points and 282 yards per game they allowed in 2014.

While the Cardinal are legit national title contenders, the K-State Wildcats finally look like they’re fading in the Big 12 under legendary coach Bill Snyder. They went just 6-7 last year and were blown out 55-0 by Oklahoma and 45-23 by Arkansas in the process. They were outgained by 118 yards per game overall and 153.6 yards per game in Big 12 play last year.

Now the Wildcats have just 12 returning starters and all kinds of questions on offense. Jesse Ertz was hurt last year, so he’ll be back, but he’s not going to have much success against this dominant Stanford defense. I expect this game to play out similar to the 45-23 Arkansas game and the 45-16 beat down Stanford put on Iowa, which was a much better team than Kansas State.

Stanford is 42-5 at home over the past seven seasons. It has won 15 straight non-conference home openers with its last lost coming to Notre Dame. The Cardinal have won eight straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game as well.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Stanford is 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games overall, including 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games.  Bet Stanford Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -8.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Injuries absolutely killed this team last year as they were better than their 4-9 record would indicate. They have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games by a touchdown or less over the last two seasons alone.

Now fourth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is going to have his best team yet. The Buffaloes return 18 starters and 63 lettermen, making them the most experienced team in the Pac-12. Look for this team to be undervalued early in the season, and I believe they aren’t getting enough respect as only 8.5-point favorites here.

Starting QB Sefo Liufau is now a senior and has already thrown for 7,397 yards in his career. He’ll be the school’s all-time leading passer by within a couple games this season. He is among nine returning starters on offense from a unit that put up a respectable 397 yards per game last year.

The defense improved dramatically last season in allowing just 27.5 points per game after giving up 39.0 in 2014. Now the Buffaloes should take another step forward with nine starters and each of the top four tacklers returning.

While Colorado is on the rise, Colorado State is surely on the decline this season. Mike Bobo stepped into a great situation last year with 15 returning starters left over from Jim McElwain, who left for Florida. All he could get out of that team was a 7-6 record after they went 10-3 the year before.

Now it looks like a rebuilding year as the Rams return just 10 starters. The offense returns QB Nick Stevens, but he loses each of his top four receivers from last year, including stud Rashard Higgins, who caught 75 balls for 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns.

While the offense should still be decent, the bigger concern is on defense where the Rams return only four starters. They had eight starters back on D last year and gave up 27.2 points per game, and now they’ll easily give up 30-plus in 2016. That explosive Colorado offense should have its way with this inexperience Rams’ defense in Week 1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Colorado Friday.

20* Oregon State/Minnesota Pac-12 vs. Big Ten BAILOUT on Oregon State +13

The Oregon State Beavers come into the 2016 season undervalued because of their 2-10 campaign last year. That’s pretty evident by the fact that they are 13-point underdogs to a Minnesota team that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten last year with a 5-7 record during the regular season.

While I do like this Minnesota team, I do not agree that it should be 13-point favorites here Thursday night. The Golden Gophers return 13 starters and 39 lettermen, but they lose four of their top six tacklers on defense.

Most of their returning starters are on offense with seven in all, but this is a unit that put up just 22.5 points per game last season. With the lack of an explosive offense, it’s easy to predict that the Golden Gophers are going to have a hard time covering this 13-point spread in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Gary Andersen did a tremendous job at Utah State and Wisconsin before coming here. He won 30 games over a 3-year span before coming to Oregon State. Then he stepped into an awful situation as the Beavers had just nine returning starters last year, including two on defense.

But now Andersen has more of his players in place and 13 starters and 47 lettermen returning while losing only 17 letter winners. The Beavers go from an inexperienced team to one that now has eight projected senior starters. I look for them to surprise some folks this season and to be much more competitive than last year.

Andersen brought Utah State transfer Darell Garretson with him to Corvallis. He completed 67% of his passes for 1,140 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio in 2014 while making four starts with the Aggies. He then sat out last season and now Garretson will guide what should be one of the most improved offenses in the country. Garretson was very impressive in the spring and should build off of that.

Oregon State has won three of its last four road openers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins last season came by 9 points or less, so it isn’t used to blowing teams out. Andersen is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 22-10 ATS in his career in non-conference games.

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s leading rusher last year was Shannon Brooks (709 yards, 7 TD, 6.0/carry), and he’s doubtful Thursday with a foot injury.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are coming off a magical 2015 season in which they went 12-2 and won the Conference USA title.  It was their first 12-win season since 2002 when they won the FCS title.

It's safe to say that the Hilltoppers are now way overvalued heading into 2016.  I'll gladly fade them now as they go from 16 returning starters last year down to 12 this season.

The key loss for the Hilltoppers is C-USA Offensive Player of the Year Brandon Doughty, who threw for 5,055 yards and 48 touchdowns against nine interceptions last year.  Doughty shattered the career passing yards mark at WKU with 12,855 yards.  He's one of those guys who is irreplaceable, and the Hilltoppers won't be nearly as good without him.

Another big concern is that WKU goes from having nine returning starters on D last year to just four returning starters this year.  They had only four starters back on D in 2014 when they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game, but dropped to 25.9 and 405 last year with an experienced D.  They'll get back to giving up boat loads up points in 2016.

Rice is certainly a team primed for a bounce-back year after going 5-7 last season.  They had gone a combined 18-9 the previous two seasons, but they had just nine starters back last year and it was a rebuilding season.

David Bailiff is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and now he'll be working with one of his better teams at Rice.  The Owls return 16 starters and 52 lettermen while losing only 17 letter winners.  This is a team that I fully expect to challenge for the C-USA title in 2016.

The biggest improvement for Rice will come on defense as they had just three returning starters last year and gave up 35.8 points and 447 yards per game.  But now they return nine starters on D and each of their top seven tacklers. In fact, this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country.

The offense figures to be improved as well with four veteran running backs, six of the top seven receivers returning, and an improved offensive line.  The key will be getting better QB play, which shouldn't be a problem after inconsistency last year.  Senior Tyler Stehling has been waiting for his time and this will be his year after throwing for 479 yards in 10 games as a back-up previously.

Most will look at WKU's 49-10 win over Rice last season and think the Hilltoppers will run away with it.  But a closer look shows that the Owls gave away that game by losing the turnover battle 5-0.  I expect this opener to be much more competitive and for the Owls to stay within two touchdowns.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* Cal/Hawaii 2016 CFB Season Opener on Hawai'i +20

Last season set up perfectly for the Cal Golden Bears to have their best year of the Sonny Dykes era. They had a whopping 17 returning starters, including eventual No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at quarterback. They made the most of it and went 8-5 overall.

But now Dykes will be rebuilding in his 4th year here. The Golden Bears lose a whopping 29 players who contributed in 2015, including Goff and his top six receivers. They went from being the #3 most experienced team in the country last year to #119 this year. They return just nine starters in all.

While the losses on offense are huge, the lack of proven playmakers on defense are just as big. The Golden Bears have lost each of their top six tacklers from last year after SS Damariay Drew tore his ACL in the spring and is out for the year. They are going to have a hard time stopping anyone this season.

It’s certainly hard to be too high on Hawai’i coming into 2016 after going a combined 11-39 over the past four seasons. However, I like the new head coach in Nick Rolovich, who had some great offenses at Nevada after spending the past four years as their coordinator. The new defensive coordinator is Kevin Lampa, who has a whopping 42 years of coaching experience.

The cupboard certainly isn’t bare for the Warriors, who return 15 starters and 46 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners. The offense figures to be much better under Rolovich’s tutelage with the experience that returns.

Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has been named the starter. He has made 19 starts in his career here and should be primed for his best season yet. Leading rusher Paul Harris (1,132 yards, 6 TD, 5.7/carry last year) is back, as are each of the top three receivers from a year ago. Four starters return along the offensive line as well. I look for this unit to have plenty of success against an inexperienced Cal defense.

Hawai’i has been a great bet in Week 1 each of the past five seasons, going a perfect 5-0 ATS during that stretch against five straight Pac-12 opponents. It beat Colorado 34-17 as 6-point home favorites in 2011, covered as 42-point dogs at USC in a 10-49 loss in ’12, covered as 23-point home dogs to USC in a 13-30 loss in ’13, nearly upset Washington as 17-point home dogs in a 16-17 loss in ’14, and upset Colorado 28-20 as 7-point home dogs in ’15.

The Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Pac-12 foes.  Bet Hawai'i Friday.

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Clemson +7

Deshaun Watson is exactly the type of quarterback that Alabama has struggled against through the years. He can beat you with his arms and his legs, and I look for him to make enough plays to keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters. The Tigers weren’t getting any respect as underdogs against Oklahoma when they dominated in a 37-17 victory, and they’re certainly not getting respect as touchdown dogs here in the title game.

Watson is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,032 yards and 12 scores. He probably feels like he got snubbed out of the Heisman Trophy, which went to Alabama’s Derrick Henry. So not only will the Tigers be motivated as underdogs, they’ll also get an inspired effort from Watson here as he looks to make a statement.

While the edge on defense goes to the Crimson Tide in this one, there’s no denying that the edge on offense clearly belongs to the Tigers. They are putting up 38.4 points and 511.7 yards per game against teams that only give up 25.3 points and 379 yards per game. Alabama averages 34.4 points and 423.8 yards per game against teams that give up 24.9 points and 365 yards per game.

But it’s not like the Tigers are slouches on defense. They are allowing 20.0 points and 302.0 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 398 yards per game. They also give up just 4.7 per play against teams that average 6.0 per play. Stopping Henry and Alabama's rushing attack will be key for the Tigers, and they are equipped to do it. They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 190 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Alabama’s defense has put up great numbers this season, but it has faced some awful offenses here down the stretch. Its last four games have come against Michigan State, Florida, Auburn and Charleston Southern. The Crimson Tide will be taking a big step up in competition here as Clemson has one of the best offenses in the land. In fact, this will be the best offense that Alabama has seen all season. Ole Miss was the next-best offense it has faced, and it gave up 43 points in a loss to the Rebels.

Clemson is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* WVU/Arizona State Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on Arizona State +1

For starters, this will be a home game for the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Indeed, the Cactus Bowl will be played at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.  Not only do I believe the Sun Devils will have a massive home-field advantage as a result, I also believe they are the better team anyway, and they should not be underdogs.

The Sun Devils are a much better team than their 6-6 record would indicate, but that record has them undervalued heading into the bowl season.  Big things were expected of this team as they returned 16 starters this year and were expected to compete for a Pac-12 South title.

But the Sun Devils had some poor fortune in close games this year.  They lost by 2 at California and by 6 in overtime at home to Oregon despite outgaining the Ducks by 241 yards in a complete fluke loss.  They did go on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 to flash their potential, and they played much better at home this season than on the road.  The beat Arizona (52-37), Washington (27-17) and Colorado (48-23) at home within the Pac-12 with their only losses coming to USC and Oregon.

While Arizona State has four wins against bowl teams (New Mexico, UCLA, Washington, Arizona) this year, West Virginia only has two wins (Georgia Southern, Texas Tech) against bowl teams.  And one of those was a lackluster 31-26 home win over Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers lost to all of the best teams they played this season.  None of them were close, either.  They lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 24 to Baylor and by 30 to TCU.  They also lost their season finale 23-24 to Kansas State.  I just believe this team is getting too much respect from oddsdmakers despite having not done anything this season.

This is a great matchup for the Sun Devils, too.  Their strength defensively is stopping the run, while WVU's strength offensively is running the ball.  WVU averages 235 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  But the Sun Devils only give up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams who average 193 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They will be up to the task of stopping the run here.

West Virginia is 0-9 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992.  It is losing in these spots by 6.1 points per game despite being the favorite in all nine.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.  They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points per game.

WVU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  ASU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  Off that 2-point loss at Cal, the Sun Devils will be motivated to finish the season with a winning record instead of dropping to 6-7.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the bowl season undervalued because they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs come into the bowl season overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those finishes to the regular season have forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be because they know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Penn State right now.

The 16-55 loss to Michigan State certainly leaves an eye sore.  But a closer look at that game shows that it wasn't nearly as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Nittany Lions gave away that game by committing four turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  They were only outgained by the Spartans 418-436 for the game, or by 18 total yards.  The difference was clearly the turnovers.  But the Nittany Lions had only committed 13 turnovers in 11 games prior to that contest, so it was an aberration, and don't expect it to become a pattern now.

That finish to the season will certainly have the Nittany Lions extra motivated coming into this bowl game.  They want to right the ship and end the season on a winning note, and you can bet that head coach James Franklin will have his players ready to go on January 2nd as a result.  Franklin owns a 3-0 career record in bowl games, so he knows how to get his players prepared the right way.  While you can't question the motivation of the Nittany Lions, you can certainly question the motivation of the Bulldogs.

Indeed, Georgia will have an interim head coach for this game after Mark Richt was fired.  Richt has left the program to go coach at his alma mater in Miami.  The Bulldogs hired former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  Not only will Georgia be without Richt, it will also be without defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who took over Smart's previous role as the defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Plus, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer won't coach in the bowl game either, leaving Georgia with a patchwork staff leading up to the game.

Receivers coach Bryan McClendon will take over as the interim coach, and I just cannot see this going well for the Bulldogs.  Few bowl teams undergo this many changes to their staff.  Losing your head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator is almost impossible to overcome.  You can see why this is my favorite play of the bowl season, ranked as my 25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR!

I was not impressed with the way the Bulldogs closed out the season even though they won four straight.  Their wins came against Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  They only beat Auburn by 7, needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern at home, and only beat Georgia Tech by 6.  While they may find a way to win this game, too, asking them to do so by a touchdown or more to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs just don't have the firepower on offense to put away the Nittany Lions.  They have been held to an average of just 14.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six games overall.  They were held to 3 by Florida, 9 by Missouri, 13 by Georgia Tech and 17 by Georgia Southern in four of those games.  It's not going to get any easier for this Georgia offense against a Penn State defense that is one of the best units in the country.

The Nittany Lions only allow 21.7 points, 325 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams that average 28.3 points, 386 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  I know the Penn State offense has struggled like Georgia, but the extra bowl practice will help the offensive line work on its problems.  Plus, QB Christian Hackenburg wants one big performance here to improve his draft stock after it plummeted throughout the regular season.

Penn State also falls into a proven bowl system that tells us to bet on teams entering the bowl season on an extended losing streak.  Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, including 16-8 ATS if their opponent is coming off a straight up win.  The Nittany Lions are the only team that qualifies this year.  These teams on 3-game skids have been consistently undervalued.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss -7

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the biggest frauds in all of college football.  Yes, they had a chance to win the Big 12 in the season finale, but their true colors showed against the best teams they played this season.  Let's also not forget that this team struggled to beat suspect competition with an 11-point win over Central Michigan, a 3-point win over Texas, a 2-point win over Kansas State and a 4-point win over Iowa State.

But the most telling story about the Cowboys is their performance against the top three teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  They gave up 29 points and 663 yards to TCU, 45 points and 700 yards to Baylor, and 58 points and 524 yards to Oklahoma.  So, against those three teams, they allowed averages of 44.0 points and 629.0 yards per game.

Conversely, Ole Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It was the only team to beat Alabama this season, and it even did so in Tuscaloosa.  The Rebels had some mental lapses in a few losses this season to Memphis, Florida and Arkansas, but this is easily the second-best team in the SEC.  It took a fluke fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime by Arkansas to beat the Rebels, and had they won that game, the Rebels would be your 2015 SEC champs.

Oklahoma State's suspect defense now has to go up against what I believe to be the best offense in the SEC.  The Rebels average 40.2 points, 515 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that give up 29.6 points, 402 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They put up 43 points on Alabama, 52 on Arkansas, 38 on LSU and 38 on Mississippi State.  I would say that is getting it done against those four defenses.

Plus, it's not like the Rebels are slouches defensively.  They have a well above-average defense that gives up 22.8 points, 387 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They will be up against a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State offense that average 6.5 yards per play against teams that allow 5.9 per play.

Oklahoma State only beat only one ranked team this season (TCU), and it was outgained by 207 yards by the Horned Frogs.  Ole Miss beat four ranked teams at the time they played them in Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  The return of future first-round pick Laremy Tunsil at left tackle late in the year gave the Rebels' offensive line a boost, and I look for this offense to shred Oklahoma State's suspect defense while putting up a big number in this one.

Ole Miss has done very well when oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 points over the last three seasons, winning these games by an average of 24.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a total set of 63 or higher as well.  Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games.  The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Ole Miss is 24-8-1 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday.

20* Iowa/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa +7

Iowa didn't get much respect all season, and that certainly hasn't changed here as the oddsmakers have pegged them as 7-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  They were 27 seconds away from a 13-0 season and a trip to the four-team playoff, but they still aren't getting any credit.  Look for the Hawkeyes to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game against Stanford as a result.

The Hawkeyes have never won the Rose Bowl, so they certainly won't be lacking any motivation anyways.  Fans are so excited that they are forking over some large cash to make the trip to Pasadena, and there will be more black and gold there than Cardinal fans as a result.  The Hawkeyes are expected to get at least 60,000 fans to Pasadena for their first Rose Bowl in 25 years.

Stanford lost 6-16 at Northwestern, while Iowa beat Northwestern 40-10 on the road.  That right there gives these teams a common opponent that lets you know that the Hawkeyes should not only be able to hang with the Cardinal, but to pull off the upset, too.  The Big Ten in general just never gets much respect from anyone outside of Ohio State.  But they have been a great bet in bowl games in recent years because of this false public perception of them.

This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes.  They won't be overmatched athletically like they would be if, say, USC was the opponent in the Rose Bowl.  Both the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are similar teams who run the ball and stop the run, it's just that I believe the Hawkeyes do it better.

Iowa rushed for 192 yards per game while Stanford rushed for 225 per game.  So, the key is going to be which teams stops the run better.  The Hawkeyes only allow 115 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, while the Cardinal give up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Overall, the Hawkeys give up 18.5 points, 334 yards per game and 4.8 per play, while the Cardinal give up 23.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The Hawkeyes are a tough team to blow out because they play such sound football.  They run the ball, stop the run, and take care of the football, and CJ Beathard is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.  You know when you bet the Hawkeyes that they aren't going to beat themselves.  They have only committed 14 turnovers in 13 games this season.  Conversely, they have forced 26 turnovers this year for a +12 differential.  CJ Bethard has thrown 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in 13 games this year, while also rushing for 270 yards and six scores.

Iowa got some good news prior to the Rose Bowl with a healthy return of running back Jordan Canzeri, who was knocked out of the 13-16 loss to Michigan State early with an ankle injury.  While the Hawkeyes have two other capable backs in LeShun Daniels (609 yards, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (463 yards, 6.3 per carry, 7 TD), Canzeri (976 yards, 5.5/carry, 12 TD) is their most complete back.  Whoever is running the football should find plenty of success against a Stanford defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game.  Iowa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams who average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Kirk Ferentz is 33-11 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the head coach at Iowa.  Take Iowa Friday.

20* Tennessee/Northwestern Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -8

We saw last year in the bowl game how Tennessee crushed Iowa 45-28 in a game that wasn't even that close.  It was yet another example of a Big Ten team being outmatched athletically by an SEC team.  The Volunteers used their team speed and did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Hawkeyes.  I look for this one to play out exactly the same way as Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to match up.

I was very high on Tennessee coming into the season because this was Butch Jones' most talented team yet, and a team that returned 18 starters.  The Volunteers didn't disappoint, because believe it or not, they nearly went 12-0 this year.  All four of their losses came by 7 points or less.  They just had some bad fortune in close games against some of the best teams in the country.

The Vols lost in double-overtime 24-31 to Oklahoma after blowing a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter.  They lost 20-24 to Arkansas after blowing a 14-0 lead.  They lost 27-28 to Florida after blowing a 27-14 lead in the final five minutes.  And they lost 14-19 at Alabama after holding a 14-13 lead with under three minutes to play.  As you can see, they played two playoff teams in Oklahoma & Alabama right down to the wire, a solid Arkansas team, and SEC East champ Florida. They easily could have won all four of those games.

But instead of being down about their poor fortune in those close games, the Volunteers got pissed off and played their best football of the season down the stretch.  They went 5-0 in their last five games overall with a 31-point win over Kentucky, a 3-point win over South Carolina, a 24-point win over North Texas, an 11-point win at Missouri and a 25-point win over Vanderbilt.

Northwestern might be the most overrated team in the country with its No. 13 ranking.  Oddsmakers agree in listing the 23rd-ranked Vols as 8-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have been winning ugly all season.  That works against suspect Big Ten competition, but it does not work against good teams.  That was evident in the 38-0 loss at Michigan and the 40-10 home loss to Iowa.  But the Wildcats are in for their stiffest challenge yet here because of the disadvantage they'll be at athletically.

Both teams have solid defenses as the Vols give up 21.2 points per game while the Wildcats surrender 16.4 points per game.  The Wildcats would have had a hard time only giving up 21.2 points per game against the schedule that Tennessee played.  So even though the Wildcats have the better numbers defensively, I don't believe they are the better defensive team.

The one thing that can't be argued is that Tennessee is head and shoulders better than Northwestern on offense.  The Vols put up 34.3 points per game this season.  The Wildcats managed to win 10 games despite only averaging 20.7 points, 333 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this year.  Once the Wildcats get behind in this one, they aren't going to have the firepower to catch up, just as Iowa didn't against Tennessee in last year's bowl game.

Tennessee just beat Vanderbilt 53-28 in the season finale.  That is a Vanderbilt team that plays a similar style to Northwestern, relying on great defense to make up for suspect offense.  Well, the Vols racked up 53 points and 527 total yards on that good Vanderbilt defense, and the Commodores couldn't do anything to catch up.  The Wildcats average 13 completions, 50.2% passing and 139 passing yards per game this season.  That's not going to get it done.

I'd much rather put my money on Joshua Dobbs and this Tennessee offense.  Dobbs has thrown for 2,125 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 623 yards and nine scores.  Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the Vols a great 1-2 punch in the backfield.  Hurd has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kamara has chipped in 645 yards and six scores while averaging 6.7 per carry.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Michigan State/Alabama Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Alabama -9.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are on a mission heading into the four-team playoff.  Nick Saban is on record of saying that this team is a lot more focused than last year's squad that lost to eventual national champion, Ohio State.  I believe the business-like approach they are taking will have them ready to make easy work of the overmatched Michigan State Spartans in the Cotton Bowl.

This is big brother vs. little brother.  Mark Dantonio worked under Nick Saban before getting the job at Michigan State.  Dantonio calls Saban his mentor.  And while he has had success running a similar program to Saban at Alabama, he just doesn't do it quite as well.  That was evident a few years back when Saban's Alabama team crushed Michigan State 49-7 in the 2011 Capital One Bowl.  Another beat down can be expected here.

Alabama is back to having the best defense in the country.  It gives up just 14.4 points, 258 yards per game and 4.1 per play against teams that average 28.7 points, 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The going is going to be very tough for Connor Cook and a Michigan State offense that is only averaging 397 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that give up 389 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

This is just an average Michigan State offense, and Cook doesn't have enough playmakers outside to have any kind of success against this Alabama defense.  The Spartans don't run the football well as they average just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that give up 4.3 per carry.  That won't change against an Alabama defense that allows 74 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry against teams that average 173 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  The Crimson Tide have the best front seven in the country.

Alabama's offense has been better than it gets credit for, too.  It is putting up 34.1 points, 423 yards per game and 5.8 per play against teams that only give up 25.2 points, 366 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry just keeps getting better as the games get bigger.  He has rushed for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He had 189 against Florida, 271 against Auburn, 204 against Mississippi State and 210 against LSU in his last four SEC games.

Michigan State was so fortunate to even make the four-team playoff.  It needed a miracle punt block TD on the final play of the game to beat Michigan, needed to control the ball for almost 40 minutes to beat Ohio State by 3, and needed a last-second TD to beat Iowa.  It also let poor teams like Rutgers (31-24) and Purdue (24-21) hang around.  Now the Spartans face by far their stiffest test of the season in the Cotton Bowl, and I believe they will be exposed.

Alabama's loss to Ole Miss early in the season may have been the best team that could happen to this team.  It got them refocused and back to playing the best football in the country.  The Crimson Tide won each of their final 10 games of the season with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  They aren't about to let up now.

Alabama beat Wisconsin 35-17 on a neutral field in the season opener and outgained the Badgers 502-268, or by 234 total yards.  That win improved the Crimson Tide to 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Alabama Thursday.

20* Clemson/Oklahoma Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

I believe Oklahoma is the most complete team in the playoff.  It has been dominant on both sides of the football, and it comes in playing better than anyone in the country.  The Sooners have gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  What makes that most impressive is that the Sooners played their toughest Big 12 opponents down the stretch.

They went on the road and beat Baylor 44-34, topped TCU 30-29 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed, and then went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 58-23 in its final three games of the season.  The Sooners have outgained seven straight opponents, including five of them by 146 or more total yards.

The offense is putting up 45.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.0 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.8 points, 440 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Baker Mayfield deserved to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion as this guy just makes all the plays.  He is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with 35 touchdowns against five interceptions.  He has also rushed for 420 yards and seven scores as he's an underrated runner.

While the offensive improvement behind Mayfield has been a big reason for Oklahoma's success, it's the defense that doesn't get enough credit.  The Sooners had the best defense in the Big 12 this season.  They allowed just 20.7 points per game, 352 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that averaged 33.5 points, 455 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  This is one of the top defenses in the country.

Clemson played in the much weaker ACC this season.  It put up 38.5 points per game this year, which is less than Oklahoma.  It is right on par with Oklahoma in terms of scoring defense at 20.2 points per game, but not when you consider that opposing offenses faced only averaged 28.7 points per game.  The Tigers played a much easier slate of opposing offenses, and I believe their defense has been overrated all season because of it.

I was not impressed with the Tigers down the stretch.  They went 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They failed to cover the 12.5-point spread in a 10-point win over FSU, only beat Syracuse by 10 as a 30-point favorite, only beat Wake Forest by 20 as a 29-point favorite, and only beat South Carolina by 5 as a 20.5-point favorite.  They did cover the 6.5-point spread in an 8-point win over UNC in the ACC Championship Game, but if the refs had not called a phantom offsides penalty on the Tar Heels on an onside kick that they recovered, that result might have been different.

This Clemson defense is not as good as it gets credit for.  It faced plenty of mediocre offensive teams and gave up a lot of points this season.  Over their final six games, the Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State, 27 to Syracuse, 32 to South Carolina and 37 to UNC.  That's not a championship defense like the one Oklahoma has.  Plus, the Sooners played the toughest non-conference schedule of any of the bowl teams with games against fellow bowl teams in Akron, Tennessee & Tulsa.

Oklahoma wants revenge from the blowout bowl loss to Clemson last year, which is added motivation.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win by 21 or points points over the last two seasons.  Clemson is 8-20 ATS off five or more consecutive wins since 1992.  Plays on any team (OKLAHOMA) - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after a win by 35 or more points are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Oklahoma Thursday.

15* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on USC -3

One of my favorite tools for handicapping bowl games is strength of schedule.  Well, Holiday Bowl between USC and Wisconsin is one of the biggest SOS mismatches of the bowl season.  The Trojans played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the country, while the Badgers played the 70th-toughest.

USC has played Stanford (twice), Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon and UCLA among others.  It's amazing that the Trojans managed to win the tough Pac-12 South division with the schedule they had to endure.  They were competitive in almost every game they played, too, and they are certainly a more talented team than the Badgers.

Wisconsin went 9-3 this year, but it clearly wasn't as good as its record.  It lost to the three best teams it played in Alabama, Iowa (at home) and Northwestern (at home).  Its nine wins came against Miami Ohio, Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland and Minnesota.  All nine of those teams finished with losing records.

USC is far and away the superior offensive team in this one.  It averages 34.9 points, 449.6 yards per game and 6.3 per play against teams that give up 28.5 points, 416 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Wisconsin only averages 27.1 points, 377 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 27.3 points, 383 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Senior QB Cody Kessler wants to end his career a winner.  He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,315 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions this season.  The Trojans also boast a two-headed monster at running back in Ronald Jones (940 yards, 6.5/carry, 8 TD) and Justin Davis (875 yards, 5.6/carry, 5 TD).

This was not a typical season for Wisconsin offensively.  The Badgers rushed for 320 yards per game and 6.9 per carry last year, but fell all the way down to 148 per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  They will struggle to move the ball against a USC defense that is better than advertised.  The Trojans give up 25.9 points, 401 yards per game and 5.7 per play against teams that average 34.5 points, 452 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

Clay Helton got his long-term contract from the Trojans and there is now some stability with the program, finally.  He led them to a bowl win last year.  Wisconsin's Paul Chryst is just 1-2 in bowl games as a head coach.  USC is one of my favorite teams to back off a loss.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, coming back to win by 18.3 points per game.  Take USC Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Texas A&M Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M +4.5

The oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as 3-point favorites for this Music City Bowl over Louisville.  Now, with the news that quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have transferred, they've moved this line a whopping 7.5 points to Texas A&M +4.5.  I would still like the Aggies at -3, and I certainly love them catching 4.5 points here.

Now the Aggies will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the role of the underdog.  They will be going with junior college transfer Jake Hubenak as their starter, and I like what I'm hearing about this kid.  I actually think this may be addition by subtraction not only for this game, but for the long run for the Aggies.

Allen and Murray were two quarterbacks who were promised playing time by the staff, which is why they were both so frustrated when they couldn't get that playing time consistently.  It's no surprise that they transferred.  They are two players who just want everything given to them instead of earning it, and they certainly didn't earn the playing time they were given.

Hubenak grew up wanting to be an Aggie and then earned his way up.  He went 19-1 as a starter in high school.  He walked on at Oklahoma State and played last season at Blinn College, where he threw for 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns.  Breaking in new quarterbacks is nothing new for Kevin Sumlin.  Jameil Showers and Matt Davis left the program in 2013, while Kenny Hill and Matt Joeckel left in 2014.  This is a system where you can almost plug in any quarterback.

"I've said all along that I think he could get the job done for us," center Mike Matthews said of Hubenak. "He's been put in that role now and I have no doubt that he will do great for us. It helps that he's an easy guy to rally around. He's a hard-working guy and the team likes him a lot. It's kind of hard not to get along with him and it's easy to follow his lead."

The good news for Hubenak is he has boatloads of talent around him, so he won't be asked to do too much.  Sumlin has recruited very well along the offensive line and at the skill positions.  In fact, this is one of the most talented receiver corps in the country.  All Hubenak needs to do is get the ball into his playmakers' hands in space, and they will do the work for him.

Plus, the Aggies have the best defense that they've had in the Sumlin era.  The addition of former LSU coordinator John Chavis has made a huge difference.  The Aggies are only giving up 21.6 points, 367.2 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 27.8 points, 403 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  This is actually one of the better defenses in the SEC now.

They thrive against the pass, allowing just 161 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the season.  They are 20th in the nation in sacks per game (2.75), which doesn't bode well for a Louisville offense that ranks 126th in the country in sacks allowed  per game (3.67).

Louisville doesn't wow you offensively as it averages a mediocre 28.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Its defense is above average, but it is still giving up 24.3 points per game against teams that average 26.3.  The Aggies played a much tougher schedule this season and will be more battle-tested than the Cardinals.  They will also have a lot more talent on the field as they have 10 NFL prospects to Louisville's 5.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.