|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-27-12||Baylor +3 v. UCLA Bruins||49-26||Win||100||29 h 38 m||Show|
15* Baylor/UCLA Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +3
The Bears are playing the better football coming into this game. They were absolutely sensational to finish out the season, winning four of their final five games while going a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the process. Their only loss during this stretch came at Oklahoma 34-42 as a 21-point underdog. They beat Kansas 41-14, then-No. 1 Kansas State 52-24, Texas Tech 52-45, and Oklahoma State 41-34, so it
|12-27-12||Cincinnati v. Duke +8||Top||48-34||Loss||-110||25 h 8 m||Show|
20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +8
The Blue Devils are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this season. This is their first trip to a bowl game since 1994. Head coach David Cutcliffe has his best team in five years with the program, and that really showed this season. These players want to be here more than the Cincinnati Bearcats.
Cincinnati had high hopes coming into the season of winning the Big East to play in a BCS bowl game. That didn
|12-26-12||Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky OVER 57||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||68 h 7 m||Show|
20* CMU/WKU Pizza Bowl Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57
I look for a shootout in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky Wednesday. This game will be played inside a dome at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. That means the scoring conditions will be optimal for these two solid offenses.
Central Michigan really picked up the pace at the end of the season offensively, scoring 30 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 scores.
Western Kentucky put up an average of 28.7 points/game this season. RB Antonio Andrews will get plenty of touches as he makes a bid to set a single-season NCAA record for all-purpose yards. Andrews, who rushed for 1,609 yards and 11 touchdowns, also has 957 return yards and 2,977 overall. The junior needs 274 yards to surpass Barry Sanders' mark of 3,250 from his 1988 Heisman Trophy-winning season.
While the Hilltoppers did have a solid defense with three players earning all-conference honors. However, the anchor of that unit - Sun Belt defensive player of the year and defensive end Quanterus Smith - is out due to a knee injury suffered Nov. 17 against Louisiana-Lafayette. He had an FBS-leading 1.25 sacks per game and 12 1/2 overall in 10 games.
Western Kentucky gave up an average of 31.5 points/game over their last four games heading into the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Central Michigan gave up 33.3 points/game this season while ranking 93rd in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).
Central Michigan is 7-0 to the OVER in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Chippewas are 6-0 to the OVER in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. CMU is 6-0 to the OVER in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the OVER. Bet the OVER in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl Wednesday.
|12-24-12||SMU v. Fresno State -11.5||Top||43-10||Loss||-101||21 h 52 m||Show|
20* Fresno/SMU Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on Fresno State -11.5
The Bulldogs have been the best team in the country at the pay window this season. Not only did they go 9-3 and while clinching a share of the Mountain West title, they also went an incredible 11-1 against the spread in the process. This team has certainly been going under the radar all season.
They are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game, so they
|12-22-12||Washington +6 v. Boise State||Top||26-28||Win||100||67 h 36 m||Show|
20* Washington/Boise State Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +6
The Washington Huskies played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos did this season, and they are more battle-tested heading into this contest because of it. This will arguably be Boise State
|12-21-12||Ball State +7 v. Central Florida||Top||17-38||Loss||-100||212 h 20 m||Show|
25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Ball State +7
The Ball State Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They won nine games with their only losses coming against current Top 25 opponents in Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State. They fell to both the Huskies and Golden Flashes by a combined 14 points, and both of those teams went on to play in the MAC title game. In fact, Northern Illinois will be playing in a BCS bowl.
Ball State features a dynamic offense, and it is certainly the superior team on this side of the ball. It is averaging 35.0 points per game while ranking 22nd in the country in total offense at 471.3 yards per game. It is averaging 214.3 yards on the ground and 257.1 through the air. UCF is 58th in total offense at 400.7 yards per game.
Starting quarterback Keith Wenning is expected to return after missing their season finale against Miami (Ohio) with a strained Achilles tendon. He is currently listed as probable, and he
|12-20-12||BYU -2.5 v. San Diego State||Top||23-6||Win||100||189 h 50 m||Show|
20* BYU/San Diego State Poinsettia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on BYU -2.5
The BYU Cougars come in playing well having won three of their last four games overall. All three wins came by 24 or more points, including a 41-17 victory at Georgia Tech. Their lone loss during this stretch came on the road against an underrated San Jose State team by a final of 14-20.
San Diego State has a solid offense, but BYU has the antidote with one of the best defenses in the FBS. It is allowing just 14.7 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 266.3 yards per game.
The Cougars aren
|12-15-12||Toledo v. Utah State OVER 58.5||Top||15-41||Loss||-107||65 h 24 m||Show|
20* Toledo/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 58.5
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl features a match-up between two of the best offenses in the country. I look for a high-scoring affair in this contest between Utah State and Toledo with 60-plus combined points scored by game's end.
Utah State is scoring 34.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the country in total offense at 460.7 yards/game. What makes this offense so difficult to stop is its balance. The Aggies average 193 yards on the ground and 268 through the air.
The Aggies should have their way with a Toledo stop unit that ranks 107th in the country in total defense. They give up a whopping 463.2 yards/game, including 168 on the ground and 295 through the air.
Toledo is putting up 32.9 points/game while ranking 28th in the country in total offense at 456.1 yards/game. It also has tremendous balance as it averages 197 yards on the ground and 259 through the air.
Utah State does have a good defense, but it hasn't faced many offenses nearly as potent as the one it will be facing in this bowl game. Two offenses they've faced that have been comparable are San Jose State and Louisiana Tech. They gave up 27 points in a 49-27 victory over San Jose State on September 13th, and 41 points in a 48-41 victory over Louisiana Tech on November 17th.
Toledo is 6-0 to the OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 78.8 combined points on average in this situation. The Rockets are 11-1 to the OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. We're seeing an average of 76.0 combined points in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|12-08-12||Navy -7 v. Army||Top||17-13||Loss||-104||109 h 15 m||Show|
20* Army/Navy Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -7
This is a big mismatch once again in 2012 just as it has been over the past decade in this series. I look for the Navy Midshipmen (7-4) to roll by more than a touchdown over the Army Black Knights (2-9) Saturday in one of the biggest rivalries in the country.
Navy is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Army. Most of these games haven't even been close as nine of the ten wins came by 12 points or more. Navy did only win 27-21 last season, but its football program was way down last year. It is back to being dominant once again in 2012, especially of late.
The Midshipmen have won six of their last seven games overall. This amazing run to end the season coincided with a change at quarterback. Freshman Keenan Reynolds led Navy to a comeback win over Air Force on October 6th and he has ran away with the job ever since.
Reynolds gives Navy a dual-threat quarterback with his ability to hit open receivers, which has made all the difference. Reynolds has completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 754 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He has also rushed for 585 yards and nine scores.
Navy's ability to pass the ball is going to be one of the biggest reasons they win and cover in this game. Unlike Army, they hardly have to worry about defending the pass. Army quarterback Trent Steelman is completing just 45.9 percent of his passes for 619 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Not only do the Midshipmen have the edge through the air, but they also have the edge defending the run. Navy gives up 161 rushing yards/game and 4.3/carry, while Army yields 238 rushing yards/game and 5.7/carry. Simply put, the Midshipmen have the advantage in every phase of this game and should be a bigger favorite because of it.
Navy is 18-3 ATS in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) since 1992. Army is 0-7 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Midshipmen are 68-32 ATS in their last 100 road games. The Black Knights are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Navy Saturday.
|12-01-12||Nebraska v. Wisconsin +3||31-70||Win||100||51 h 7 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship BAILOUT on Wisconsin +3
The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 27-30 loss at Nebraska earlier this season on September 29th as an 11-point underdog. They blew a 27-10 second-half lead in that contest, allowing the Corhuskers to score 20 unanswered points to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Nebraska has been getting away with murder all season, but that's not going to happen again Saturday. The Huskers have escaped with so many close victories over the final minutes of games that you would almost think it's magical.
The Huskers have five wins by 9 points or less, and every one of those games came right down to the wire with the opposing team blowing it in the end. Nebraska is nowhere near as good as its 10-2 record would indicate, and it is not even the better team in this contest.
Beating a team twice in the same season is extremely difficult, especially after the nature of the way the Huskers came back to win by 3 points in their first meeting at home. On a neutral field this time around, I have no doubt that the Badgers have their revenge and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl with a victory.
Wisconsin has an edge in the running game, which is going to be the difference in this game. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Badgers stop it better. They rank 13th in the country in rushing defense (111.3 yards/game), allowing just 3.4 yards/carry. Nebraska ranks 72nd against the run (166.2 yards/game), yielding 4.2 yards/carry.
Nebraska is 10-22 ATS in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992. Wisconsin is 21-8 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992. The Badgers are 21-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. After closing out the season with back-to-back overtime losses to Ohio State and Penn State, the Badgers are battle-tested heading into this one. Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.
|12-01-12||Florida State v. Georgia Tech +14||Top||21-15||Win||100||51 h 53 m||Show|
20* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +14
The Yellow Jackets
|12-01-12||Alabama v. Georgia +8||32-28||Win||100||47 h 53 m||Show|
15* Alabama/Georgia SEC Championship No-Brainer on Georgia +8
The Bulldogs have certainly saved their best football for last. After a shaky start to the season due to suspensions to key players, they have rebounded nicely to win the SEC East for a second straight season. They certainly have a ton of momentum heading into the SEC Championship because of it.
Georgia has won six straight games while going 4-1 ATS in its last five contests dating back to a 17-9 win over Florida, its biggest win of the season. It has outscored each of its last four opponents all by 27 points or more, including a 42-10 victory over Georgia Tech last week.
The biggest difference in this team is that it has finally started to play up to its potential defensively. It has allowed 14 points or less in five straight games, giving up an average of just 8.6 points per game in the process. This was one of the best stop units in the country last season, and it
|11-30-12||UCLA Bruins +8.5 v. Stanford||Top||24-27||Win||100||31 h 18 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA +8.5
UCLA simply suffered a letdown last week against Stanford. It was coming off its biggest win of the season with a victory over USC the previous week that assured it a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Essentially, the Bruins really had nothing to play for against the Cardinal last week.
|11-30-12||Northern Illinois v. Kent State +7.5||44-37||Win||100||26 h 48 m||Show|
15* NIU/Kent State MAC Championship No-Brainer on Kent State +7.5
The Northern Illinois Huskies are way overvalued heading into this MAC Championship. Kent State has been underrated all season and should not be catching a touchdown in a game I believe they can win outright. I'll take the points for some insurance.
Northern Illinois has not been playing all that sharp of football lately. They beat Toledo 31-24 at home as a 10-point favorite on November 14th, then went on the road to beat Eastern Michigan 14-7 as a 20.5-point favorite on November 23rd. This will be their toughest test of the season thus far.
Kent State is 11-1 this season while dominating along the way. Ten of its 11 wins have come by 7 points or more. The fact that this team is 10-2 ATS on the season shows how undervalued they have been all year. They'll continue making backers money at the pay window tonight.
The biggest reason I like Kent State in this contest is its ability to stop the run. It ranks 27th in the country against the run (129.3 yards/game) while allowing 3.7 yards/carry. That's impressive considering the 12 opponents it has faced average 169 rushing yards and 4.4/carry on the season. Northern Illinois rushes for 245.0 yards/game, so stopping the run is extremely important in this one.
Kent State is 7-0 ATS after playing a conference game this season. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Kent State is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Kent State is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. These five trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Golden Flashes. Take Kent State Friday.
|11-29-12||Louisville v. Rutgers UNDER 44||20-17||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Rutgers ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 44
This game between Louisville and Rutgers is for all the marbles with the Big East Championship on the line. Both teams features below-average offenses and great defenses, and I look for a defensive battle tonight because of it.
Rutgers is giving up just 13.7 points/game overall, including 12.0 points/game at home. It ranks 14th in the country in total defense at 317.4 yards/game allowed. Louisville is yielding 24.2 points/game while ranking 26th in the country in total defense at 345.5 yards/game.
Rutgers has really struggled offensively this season as it ranks 100th in the country in total offense at 341.4 yards/game. Louisville has been decent offensively at 44th in the land with 431.3 yards/game, but it has yet to face a defense as dominant as the one it will see tonight.
I look for this contest to result in a similar final score to last year's 16-14 home victory by Louisville. The Cardinals managed just 309 total yards while limiting the Scarlet Knights to 298 total yards. I don't foresee either team topping 20 points in this one, either.
Rutgers is 7-0 to the UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 7-0 to the UNDER after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Scarlet Knights last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-24-12||Stanford -1.5 v. UCLA||35-17||Win||100||93 h 52 m||Show|
15* Stanford/UCLA Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford -1.5
The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot here. They picked up their biggest win in years with a 38-28 home victory over USC last Saturday, which won them the Pac-12 South title and a trip to the conference championship game.
Stanford is coming off a huge win over Oregon as well, but it still has some work to do to win the Pac-12 North. It would clinch the division title with a win over UCLA Saturday.
I'm not saying UCLA is going to let Stanford win, but it would much rather face the Cardinal in the Pac-12 Championship than Oregon. Either way, when you look at the scenario, there's no question that Stanford is going to be the more motivated team heading into this one.
A great way to compare teams is to look at common opponents. Stanford and UCLA have played the same six opponents this season. The Cardinal are 6-0 against those six teams, outscoring them by 15.0 points/game. The Bruins are 4-2 against those six teams, outscoring them by 11.5 points/game.
The Cardinal have by far the better defense in this one. They are giving up just 16.9 points/game overall, including 10.8 points/game on the road, while ranking 18th in the country in total defense (328.4 yards/game). UCLA is giving up 25.0 points/game while ranking 80th in total defense (420.4 yards/game).
Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with UCLA, outscoring the Bruins a combined 114-35. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Cardinal are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Cardinal are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall. Stanford is 9-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons. Bet Stanford Saturday.
|11-24-12||Wisconsin v. Penn State -2.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||93 h 49 m||Show|
25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -2.5
The Nittany Lions have been undervalued all season due to their problems off the field with the Sandusky scandal. On the field, this has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten. They have gone 7-4 overall, including 8-2-1 ATS to prove that they have been undervalued by oddsmakers all year.
This is Senior Day for Penn State, and since they are serving a postseason ban, they won
|11-24-12||Texas Tech +3 v. Baylor||45-52||Loss||-120||89 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +3
This is a huge letdown spot for Baylor after such a big win over Kansas State. It
|11-24-12||Michigan v. Ohio State -3.5||21-26||Win||100||86 h 23 m||Show|
15* Michigan/Ohio State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes have incredibly managed to stay focused throughout the season despite knowing they have to serve a postseason ban. First-year head coach Urban Meyer has done an excellent job with these players, and there
|11-24-12||Rutgers v. Pittsburgh -2||6-27||Win||100||86 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh -2
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have absolutely nothing to play for Saturday. They are in a two-way battle with Louisville for 1st place in the Big East. Well, they could lose this game against Pitt and beat Louisville next week to win the conference.
Even if Rutgers wins this game against Pitt, it would still need to beat Louisville next week to win the Big East provided the Cardinals beat UConn this week, which is almost a foregone conclusion. There's no question that these Rutgers players know that this is a meaningless game against Pitt.
Meanwhile, the Panthers still need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible, so it certainly means something to them. Plus, it would make their season to knock off the top team in the Big East this Saturday.
Pittsburgh will come in more prepared mentally and physically to win Saturday. Aside from the fact that Rutgers has nothing to play for, Pitt will be coming off its bye week. That means it will have two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.
This is Senior Day for the Panthers, and these players would love nothing more than to send senior quarterback Tino Sunseri out with a victory. Sunseri has completed 67.3 percent of his passes this season and has thrown only two interceptions - none in 202 attempts over his last seven games.
Pittsburgh is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 13.8 points/game. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Pitt is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. loss. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-23-12||LSU v. Arkansas +12.5||20-13||Win||100||65 h 53 m||Show|
15* LSU/Arkansas CBS Friday No-Brainer on Arkansas +12.5
The LSU Tigers don
|11-23-12||Nebraska v. Iowa +15||Top||13-7||Win||100||62 h 23 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +15
The Iowa Hawkeyes should not be more than a two touchdown underdog at home to the Nebraska Cornhuskers Friday. Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Huskers aren't about to walk into it and crush the Hawkeyes.
Since Iowa is 4-7 on the season, it will not be going to a bowl game. On Senior Day, and with the motivation of trying to spoil Nebraska's season, the Hawkeyes are sure to give it everything they have. They will treat this contest like their bowl game since it will be the final time they take the field this season.
Nebraska is one of the most overrated teams in the entire country. It is nowhere near as good as its 9-2 record would indicate. The Huskers have gotten away with murder several times this season, squeaking out wins in the closing seconds in victories over Wisconsin (30-27), Northwestern (29-28), Michigan State (28-24) and Penn State (32-23). This team has simply caught all the breaks this season.
Iowa is 16-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 5.5 points per game. The Hawkeyes are 19-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 10.5 points per game.
The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive overs since 1992. Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Hawkeyes are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Nebraska is 25-51-2 ATS in its last 78 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Iowa Friday.
|11-22-12||TCU +7 v. Texas||20-13||Win||100||50 h 60 m||Show|
15* TCU/Texas ESPN Thursday Night BAILOUT on TCU +7
The Horned Frogs clearly have the better defense in this one, which gives them a chance to keep it close. They are giving up 24.0 points per game this season while ranking 16th in the country in total defense at 326.3 yards per game. It is giving up a solid 374.3 yards per game in conference play, which is saying something in a league comprised of the best offenses in the country.
Texas is yielding 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 85th in the country in total defense at 429.6 yards per game. It has been horrible on this side of the ball in Big 12 play, giving up 34.7 points and 473.0 total yards per game. TCU is averaging 29.7 points and 427.1 total yards per game in conference play, so it should be able to move the ball and score points without a problem Thursday
TCU has played its best football on the road this season. It is 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring opponents 29.2 to 23.4, or by an average of 5.8 points per game. It has road wins over Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and SMU with its only loss coming at Oklahoma State.
The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Longhorns are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with TCU Thursday.
|11-20-12||Akron +19.5 v. Toledo||23-35||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
15* Akron/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Akron +19.5
The Toledo Rockets likely won't even show up tonight. They were eliminated from the MAC title race with a 24-31 loss at Northern Illinois last Wednesday. With nothing to play for tonight, they won't bring the kind of effort it's going to take to cover this huge number against Akron.
The Zips want to end their season on a positive note since they will not be going to a bowl game. They have played some very good teams tough this season. They lost at Tennessee 26-47 as a 32-point underdog. They also lost at Ohio 28-34 as an 18-point dog, and at Kent State 24-35 as an 18.5-point dog.
Under first-year head coach Terry Bowden, the Zips have implemented a high-octane passing attack. They rank 14th in the country in passing offense (317.1 yards/game) and should be able to move the ball at will through the air against a Toledo defense that ranks 116th against the pass (298.8 yards/game).
Akron comes in the more rested team as it last played on November 10th against UMass. Toledo comes in on just five days' rest after playing on Wednesday, November 14th against Northern Illinois. That extra rest and preparation should make a big difference in this one.
Toledo is 13-27 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992. The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. Take Akron Tuesday.
|11-17-12||Utah State -3 v. Louisiana Tech||Top||48-41||Win||100||65 h 23 m||Show|
25* WAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State -3
The Utah State Aggies are one of the best teams in the country that not too many people know about. As a result, they continue going under the radar and killing the books at the pay window for people who are willing to back them. I am one of those people, and I will do so again Saturday.
Utah State is 8-2 this season with its only losses coming on the road at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined 5 points. It missed a last second-field goal at Wisconsin, and it lost by only a field goal at BYU. This team has won by 7 points or more in all eight of its victories, including six wins by 22 points or more.
Louisiana Tech is obviously a quality team at 9-1, but it has played a much softer schedule than Utah State. Its lone loss came to Texas A&M at home, and its nine wins have come against Houston (4-6), Rice (4-6), Illinois (2-8), Virginia (4-7), UNLV (2-9), Idaho (1-9), New Mexico State (1-9), UTSA (6-4) and Texas State (3-6).
As you can see, only one of their nine wins have come against a team with a winning record, and those teams have combined for a 27-66 record. I would have to say that the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as their record, and that will show on the field Saturday.
Utah State is a complete team. It ranks 25th in the country in total offense (463.2 yards/game), including 40th in rushing (187.1 yards/game) and 33rd in passing (275.9 yards/game). It ranks 12th in total defense (303.3 yards/game), including 5th against the run (94.6 yards/game) and 37th against the pass (208.7 yards/game).
Unlike the Aggies, the Bulldogs have some weaknesses, especially on the defensive side of the ball, which will be the difference in this game. Louisiana Tech ranks 121st in total defense (505.7 yards/game), including 117th against the pass (337.8 yards/game). Utah State will get more stops than Louisiana Tech in this one.
Utah State is 9-0 ATS in all games this season. Once again, it is not getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as only a 3-point favorite against a much inferior Louisiana Tech team. Bet Utah State Saturday.
|11-17-12||North Carolina State +17 v. Clemson||48-62||Win||100||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on NC State +17
First and foremost, the NC State Wolfpack have the talent to stay with Clemson Saturday aside from any outside motivational factors. They proved that last season while knocking Clemson out of the Top 10 with a 37-13 victory over the Tigers.
Aside from the fact that NC State has the talent to hang with Clemson, a big reason I'm taking the Wolfpack is because this is a huge letdown spot for the Tigers. Florida State, a 31-point favorite over Maryland Saturday, would win the ACC Atlantic division with a win. A loss would send Clemson to the ACC title game if the Tigers beat the Wolfpack.
That FSU/Maryland game kicks off at 12:00 EST, and it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Seminoles are going to win against a Terrapins team playing with their 5th string QB. The Clemson/NC State game kicks off at 3:30 EST, and these Tigers players will surely get wind of the fact that FSU beat Maryland before kickoff.
With the realization that they won't be playing in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand with little to play for. Remember, this is an NC State team that handed Florida State its only loss of the season, so it has proven it can win big games.
Mike Glennon threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson in last season's 37-13 win. Glennon is having another solid season, completing 57.3 percent of his passes for 2,910 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He will be able to keep the Wolfpack in this game with his ability to move the ball through the air.
NC State is 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 16.0 points/game. The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Clemson. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet NC State Saturday.
|11-17-12||Wake Forest +24 v. Notre Dame||0-38||Loss||-110||65 h 52 m||Show|
15* Wake Forest/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Wake Forest +24
While the Fighting Irish are 10-0 this season, they haven
|11-17-12||USC -3 v. UCLA||28-38||Loss||-115||64 h 22 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on USC -3
The Trojans are the most talented three-loss team in the entire country. They gave Oregon by far their toughest game so far with a 62-51 home loss to the Ducks. Their other two losses came to Stanford and Arizona on the road by a combined 10 points.
|11-17-12||Kent State v. Bowling Green -2.5||31-24||Loss||-107||61 h 23 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -2.5
The Bowling Green Falcons and Kent State Golden Flashes have both had amazing seasons to this point with little expected out of them coming into the year. It's unfortunate that somebody has to lose this game, but at the same time it's amazing that the winner will have the inside track to the MAC East division title, which means a trip to the MAC Championship.
While I have a bunch of respect for both teams, I have no question that the right play is to back Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown. Kent State is at least getting some love from oddsmakers because of their win over Rutgers earlier this season, but Bowling Green continues to get no respect.
Remember, the Falcons are the team that took Florida right down to the wire in their opener. This was a 17-14 game heading into the 4th quarter before the Gators scored 10 unanswered points int he final period to win 27-14. Their other two losses came on the road against very good Virginia Tech and Toledo teams.
Bowling Green is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 32.5 to 9.0, or by an average of 23.5 points/game. The biggest reason the Falcons are going to win this game is because of their defense, which ranks 6th in the country allowing just 285.4 yards/game.
More specifically, the Falcons have a huge edge in the ground game, which is where this contest will be won. Bowling Green ranks 14th in the country against the run (103.7 yards/game, 3.3/carry), so it will be able to limit a Kent State rushing attack that ranks 15th at 235.7 yards/game.
Kent State does not move the ball through the air very well, ranking just 111th in passing offense (166.7 yards/game). So, when Bowling Green shuts down their running game, the Golden Flashes will have nowhere to turn. Also, Kent State ranks just 77th in total defense (414.2 yards/game).
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Bowling Green is 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Bowling Green Saturday.
|11-16-12||Florida International v. Florida Atlantic -1.5||Top||34-24||Loss||-110||47 h 55 m||Show|
20* FIU/FAU Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -1.5
The Florida Atlantic Owls have gone under the radar all season. They have been an absolute money-making machine at the pay window because of it, covering eight straight against the spread. As only a 1-point home favorite here, they could easily earn their ninth straight cover.
|11-15-12||North Carolina v. Virginia +3.5||37-13||Loss||-110||23 h 40 m||Show|
15* UNC/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +3.5
While the Cavaliers are just 4-6 on the season, there
|11-14-12||Toledo +11 v. Northern Illinois||Top||24-31||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo +11
The Toledo Rockets represent my strongest MAC release for the entire 2012 college football season. They should not be catching double-digits tonight against the Northern Illinois Huskies.
Toledo is undervalued due to its 27-34 loss to Ball State last week. There's no question it was looking ahead to this game against Northern Illinois. That's because this game is a winner-take-all in the MAC West. The winner will have the inside track to the MAC title game.
The Rockets had their shot last year, but they fell 63-60 on November 1st to Northern Illinois. That loss cost them the MAC West title, and there's no doubt this team wants revenge. Toledo will be the more motivated team coming in.
Northern Illinois is way overvalued due to playing an extremely easy schedule this season en route to a 9-1 start. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule and have managed to get through at 8-2. Both of their losses came by exactly 7 points to a pair of very solid Arizona and Ball State teams.
This play falls into a system that is 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (N ILLINOIS) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%). Bet Toledo Wednesday.
|11-14-12||Ohio +7 v. Ball State||27-52||Loss||-115||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Ohio/Ball State ESPNU Wednesday No-Brainer on Ohio +7
The Bobcats are still mathematically alive for the MAC East title considering they still get to play Kent State in the final game of the season. They would need some help for that game to even matter, but at this point they are still alive.
Despite two losses in their last three games, this is still an 8-win team that returned 14 starters from a team that won the MAC East title last year, including QB Tyler Tettleton. He may be the best signal caller in the MAC. Tettleton is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 198 yards and four scores.
Ohio is 3-1 on the road this season with its only loss coming at Miami (Ohio) by 3 points. I know the Bobcats lost to Bowling Green at home last week, but their defense played well enough to win that game, limiting the Falcons to just 288 total yards. Ball State hasn
|11-10-12||Utah v. Washington Huskies +1.5||15-34||Win||100||74 h 59 m||Show|
15* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +1.5
The Utah Utes have no business being a road favorite at Washington Saturday. Oddsmakers have really missed their mark on this one folks, and we'll take advantage. I fully expect the Huskies to become bowl eligible with a victory on Senior Night as this will be their final home game.
Utah is getting way too much respect for its last two wins over Washington State and California. Both of those victories came at home against two of the worst teams in the Pac-12. You can't forget that the Utes had lost four straight before those two wins over cupcake opponents.
Utah is 0-4 on the road this season, scoring just 12.0 points/game and allowing 26.5 points/game, getting outscored by a whopping 14.5 points/game. Once again, the Utes have no business being favored given how poorly they've played away from home.
What's even more mind-boggling is the fact that Washington is 4-1 at home this season, yet it's a dog here. The Huskies have impressive home wins over then-No. 8 Stanford and then-No. 7 Oregon State this year, so it's not like they're beating up on cupcakes. Their lone home loss came against then-No. 11 USC.
The Huskies won at Utah 31-14 last year as a 10-point underdog. They dominated this game, outgaining the Utes 411-322 while forcing five turnovers. Keith Price completed 22 of 30 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Get ready for another big game from Price this weekend.
Washington is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. It is outscoring teams by 13.2 points/game in this spot. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These three trends combine for a 15-0 system backing the Huskies. Bet Washington Saturday.
|11-10-12||Georgia -15.5 v. Auburn||38-0||Win||100||71 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Auburn ESPN 2 Line Mistake on Georgia -15.5
A win guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the SEC title game for a second straight season. That would also mean that its national title hopes are still alive considering the winner of the SEC Championship game has made it to the BCS Championship in six straight seasons. They certainly won
|11-10-12||Mississippi State +14.5 v. LSU||Top||17-37||Loss||-105||71 h 32 m||Show|
25* SEC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +14.5
This is easily the best team that Dan Mullen has fielded since coming to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs did lose badly to Alabama and Texas A&M in their last two games, but that has them battle-tested heading into this showdown against a team similarly talented.
LSU is in a huge letdown spot after losing to No. 1 Alabama in the final seconds last Saturday. It will have a very hard time getting up to play Mississippi State after such a crushing defeat. That loss means that the Tigers aren
|11-10-12||Penn State +7.5 v. Nebraska||23-32||Loss||-113||67 h 2 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Nebraska ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Penn State +7.5
The postseason ban hasn
|11-10-12||Navy v. Troy||31-41||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Navy PK
Navy is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It has won five straight games coming in with road victories over Air Force, Central Michigan and East Carolina, along with home wins over Indiana and Navy.
Its recent success is directly related to a change at the quarterback position. Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game and led the Midshipmen to a comeback victory in the second half. He hasn't missed a beat since.
Reynolds has rushed for 405 yards and six touchdowns. However, it's his throwing ability that has made this offense so much more explosive. Reynolds is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 560 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. He forces opposing defenses to respect the pass, which makes this triple-option attack so much scarier.
Troy had a chance to pull off a huge upset at Tennessee last week. It blew the game down the stretch, allowing the Vols to score two touchdowns over the final three minutes to escape with a 55-48 victory. After such a crushing defeat, it will be hard for the Trojans to bounce back mentally and get ready for this powerful triple-option attack that's coming their way.
Navy crushed Try 42-14 at home in last season's meeting. It rushed for 390 yards while compiling 517 total yards in the win. It also held the Trojans to just 330 total yards while forcing two turnovers defensively. I expect a similar blowout this Saturday as the Midshipmen run wild on the Trojans once again.
The Midshipmen are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Navy is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 road games overall. The Trojans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Roll with Navy Saturday.
|11-10-12||Arizona State +9.5 v. USC||17-38||Loss||-110||67 h 30 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona State +9.5
The USC Trojans are in a huge letdown spot here. They'd have their hands full with Arizona State regardless, but given the situation I can see them losing this one outright. The Sun Devils are better than they get credit for and will give the Trojans a run for their money here.
USC's biggest game of the year took place last Saturday in a 51-62 home loss to the Oregon Ducks. It had a chance to salvage its season with a win in that game, but that hope is long gone now. USC came into the season with national title hopes, and now it has little to play for the rest of the way having already suffered three losses.
Arizona State is highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses to three really good teams in Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. Its last two losses have come in heartbreaking fashion by a combined 12 points to the Bruins and Beavers. This team will respond better than USC will this week given the situation.
The Sun Devils have played some of their best football on the road this season. They are 2-1 away from home with road wins over California and Colorado by a combined 44 points. Their lone loss on the road came at Missouri by a final of 20-24.
Arizona State didn't have all that great of a team last season, yet it beat USC 43-22 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. It also took the Trojans down to the wire on the road in 2010, losing by a final of 33-34 as a 6-point underdog.
When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that the Sun Devils are a very good team. They rank 31st in the country in total offense (457.8 yards/game) and 24th in total defense (333.3 yards/game). As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 124.5 yards/game.
USC is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Arizona State Saturday.
|11-10-12||Wisconsin v. Indiana +7||Top||62-14||Loss||-105||64 h 32 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +7
The Indiana Hoosiers have been under the radar all season. What's amazing is that this basketball school is actually starting to become a legitimate football program, but public bettors fail to realize it yet. As a result, they are showing great value as a touchdown underdog at home to Wisconsin once again Saturday.
Indiana is just 4-5 this season, but it could easily be 8-1. It has four losses by 4 points or less. They are 39-41 to Ball State, 27-32 to Michigan State, 49-52 to Ohio State and 30-31 to Navy.
This team has bounced back nicely from five straight losses with two solid wins over Illinois and Iowa. Now, Indiana controls its destiny in representing the Leaders division in the Big Ten title game. Both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible, so the Hoosiers are just one game behind Wisconsin. A win Saturday would move them into first place due to the tiebreaker.
Wisconsin is certainly down this season, yet it isn't getting treated like it. It has fortunate close wins over North Iowa, Utah State and UTEP. Its only Big Ten wins have come against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota, three teams with a combined 1-14 record in Big Ten play. The Badgers are overrated and will meet their match this weekend.
The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Indiana Saturday.
|11-09-12||Pittsburgh v. Connecticut +3.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Pitt/UConn ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Connecticut +3.5
The Panthers could be in a huge letdown spot here. They have to be deflated after their triple overtime loss to the Fighting Irish last Saturday, which was their chance to salvage a poor season. I foresee them showing up mentally to play this game Friday after such a tough defeat.
Connecticut has been better than its 3-6 record would indicate. It is actually outgaining opponents by 28 yards per game this season, which is a number more indicative of a team that would be above .500 on the year. It remains competitive thanks to a stop unit gives up just 18.6 points per game, and one that ranks 9th in the country in total defense at 290.2 yards per game allowed.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 on the road this season where it is scoring just 17.2 points per game and averaging 331 total yards per game. It will have a hard time moving the football on this stingy Huskies
|11-08-12||Florida State v. Virginia Tech +14.5||Top||28-22||Win||100||45 h 2 m||Show|
25* ESPN Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +14.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are way undervalued heading into this contest with the Florida State Seminoles. Lane Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play in the country, and FSU isn't just going to walk into it and dominate the Hokies in this one.
This is Virginia Tech's national championship after a 4-5 start to the season. This team has had several bad breaks throughout the year, and I have no doubt that it is a much better squad than its record would indicate. Now is their chance to prove it on National TV against a Top 10 opponent.
Virginia Tech is a perfect 4-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 35.0 to 11.0, or by an average of 24.0 points per game. Florida State is just 2-1 on the road, outscoring opponents 26.3 to 18.0, or by an average of 8.3 points per game. Both of its road wins came by 13 points to South Florida and Miami, and it lost to NC State. I believe Virginia Tech is a stronger team than all three of those squads.
The home team has dominated this series through the years. The host has won three straight and seven of the last eight meetings between the Seminoles and Hokies. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
The Hokies are 15-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. The Seminoles are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. FSU is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
The Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in November. Virginia Tech is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Hokies are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games. Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.
|11-08-12||Louisiana Monroe +7 v. Arkansas State||23-45||Loss||-115||74 h 58 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana-Monroe +7
The Warhawks had won five straight before falling at home to Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday. That loss is just an aberration, and they are undervalued coming in because of it. They are still tied atop the Sun Belt standings and there
|11-07-12||Bowling Green v. Ohio -2.5||Top||26-14||Loss||-110||22 h 33 m||Show|
20* Bowling Green/Ohio MAC Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Ohio -2.5
If Ohio wants a shot to redeem itself from last year's loss in the MAC title game, this is a must-win for the Bobcats. They are tied with Bowling Green for second place in the East Division at 4-1 and will eventually get a shot against Kent State (5-0) in the season finale.
I still believe the Bobcats are the best team in this division. They were the favorite to win the MAC coming into 2012, and one 3-point loss at Miami (Ohio) does not change my opinion on them. This is still an 8-1 team that is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points/game.
Ohio is 5-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 42.4 to 21.4 on the year. It has the better offense in this one which will be the difference in the game. Ohio ranks 28th in the country in total offense (462.2 yards/game), while Bowling Green ranks just 77th in total offense (383.4 yards/game).
Sure, the Falcons have a solid defense this season, but the Bobcats' stop unit isn't too shabby either. Bowling Green is just 2-3 on the road this season as all three of its losses have come away from home. It is scoring a mere 15.4 points/game on the road this year.
Bowling Green is getting way too much respect right now for its five-game winning streak coming in. That winning streak is an absolute joke as they five teams the Falcons have played were Rhode Island, Akron, Miami (Ohio), UMass and Eastern Michigan.
Ohio is 10-1 ATS in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game since 1992. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Ohio Wednesday.
|11-06-12||Ball State +7 v. Toledo||Top||34-27||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
20* Ball State/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ball State +7
The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule than the Toledo Rockets and they
|11-03-12||Alabama v. LSU +10||21-17||Win||100||69 h 28 m||Show|
15* Alabama/LSU SEC Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU +10
It's time to fade the No. 1 team in the country as the Alabama Crimson Tide are simply overvalued heading into this showdown with No. 5 LSU. The Tigers want payback from a loss in the national title game, and they're not about to let the Crimson Tide come into their building and embarrass them.
"There are a lot of scars from that national championship game," LSU defensive tackle Bennie Logan said. "You will see it on the field. The loss in the national championship game had a big impact on us. Going into last season, we had set goals like winning the national championship. Bama took that from us. They took that national championship ring. We want to show the world that we have bounced back from that loss."
LSU has won a school-record 22 straight home games, yet it is a big home underdog Saturday. Baton Rouge is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, and it will be a rowdy atmosphere for this one, you can bank on that.
The Tigers come in with an extra week of rest after having last week off, so the schedule could not have set up any better for them. That extra week of rest and preparation is huge when trying to get ready for a team like Alabama. LSU will be the more ready team this Saturday.
These are two evenly-matched teams for the most part. Both have dominant defense and great running games. Sure, Alabama may have an edge at quarterback, but I think that's negated with LSU's home-field advantage. This one will likely come right down to the final possession folks, just as it did in last year's 9-6 LSU road victory in overtime in the regular season.
The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. LSU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet LSU Saturday.
|11-03-12||Clemson -12.5 v. Duke||56-20||Win||100||68 h 28 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -12.5
This is an absolute mismatch in ACC play Saturday and the final score will show that. Clemson has way too much talent and athleticism across the board for Duke to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
At 7-1 this season, the Tigers still have a lot to play for, and they're still very much alive in the ACC title race in their bid for back-to-back conference championships. This team has learned a lot from its meltdown at the end of last season as it is a year older and a lot more mature.
"I just think the experience they've had is going to pay off for them," head coach Dabo Swinney said. "That's usually the case." Quarterback Tajh Boyd said he's a much more mature player this season and doesn't spend much time thinking about what went wrong for him last fall.
"It's a growth in the leadership role and having these guys look up to me in any situation whether we're down or up," he said. "So my job is to stay calm, stay poised and let the game come to me." Boyd leads the league with more than 326 yards of total offense per game. He's also tops in the ACC with 20 TD passes against six interceptions.
Boyd threw for a school-record 428 yards in last Thursday's 42-13 win at Wake Forest. Clemson has now had a couple extra days of rest heading into this one. Its only loss came on the road 37-49 at Florida State, otherwise the Tigers have been rolling teams. Six of their seven wins have come by double-digits.
Duke has already become bowl eligible with its 6th win. This team had a very easy schedule in the early going, and it took advantage by opening 6-2. As a result, the Blue Devils are overvalued now heading into tough stretch run, which started with last week's 7-48 loss at Florida State.
Duke couldn't hang with the Seminoles, which is a team very similar to Clemson in terms of talent and athleticism. The Blue Devils could be without starting QB Sean Renfree, who suffered a head injury against FSU. I still love the Tigers if he plays, but if he doesn't it's just an added bonus.
The Tigers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with Duke. These games haven't even been close as Clemson has won by a combined score of 127-37. They have won all three games by 24 or more points.
Clemson is 9-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Clemson is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 conference games. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. Roll with Clemson Saturday.
|11-03-12||Pittsburgh +17 v. Notre Dame||26-29||Win||100||65 h 60 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Notre Dame NBC Saturday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +17
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off their biggest win of the season. They beat Oklahoma on the road last Saturday as ESPN's College Game Day made the trip to see it live. Off such an emotional win with so much national exposure, it's only human nature for the Fighting Irish to have a letdown this week against Pittsburgh.
There's no way the Irish will be able to match the intensity they played with against Oklahoma off such a huge win. Sure, they may win this game against the Panthers, but it won't be my more than 17 points. Pitt has the talent to hang around and make this a game.
While the Panthers are just 4-4 this season, I have no doubt that they are better than their record. They rank 43rd in the country in total offense (431.9 yards/game) and 28th in total defense (339.9 yards/game), outgaining opponents by 92 yards/game. That's the sign of a very good football team, and one that is better than .500.
Notre Dame has not been blowing teams out at home. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 at home, but they have won those four games by a combined 20 points, or by an average of 5.0 points/game. They don't have one home win by more than 7 points all season, and both Purdue and BYU were able to stay within a field goal.
Pitt comes in with a lot of confidence as it is playing its best football of the season. It has beaten Buffalo and Temple the past two weeks by a combined score of 67-23. The Panthers will certainly be laying it all on the line to try and pick up a signature win by pulling off the upset Saturday.
This has been a very tight series in recent years as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. In fact, seven of the last eight meetings were decided by 8 points or fewer. I look for this one to come right down to the wire as well. The underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Pittsburgh Saturday.
|11-03-12||Ole Miss +14.5 v. Georgia||10-37||Loss||-110||65 h 59 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi +14.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are in a huge letdown spot here against underrated Ole Miss. Georgia is coming off its biggest win of the season with a 17-9 victory over SEC East rival Florida. It forced six turnovers in the win.
While the Bulldogs are now in control of their own destiny in the SEC East, there's no way they'll be able to match the intensity they played with in a statement win over the Gators. That makes them ripe for the picking against an Ole Miss team that doesn't get the respect it deserves.
The Rebels have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have beaten both Auburn and Arkansas, while losing by just 3 points to Texas A&M and by 19 at Alabama. That 19-point road loss to the Crimson Tide was the closest any team has come to beating the No. 1 team in the country.
Hugh Freeze is the real deal as a head coach after guiding Arkansas State to a perfect 8-0 record in conference play and a Sun Belt championship. He has already guided the Rebels to a 5-3 start and one win away from bowl contention after Houston Nutt left the program in a mess.
Freeze has a stud quarterback in Bo Wallace who is simply carrying this team on his shoulders. Wallace is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,649 yards with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also rushing for 263 yards and five scores. Jeff Scott is a beast at tailback, rushing for 612 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.4/carry.
The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a ATS win. The Bulldogs are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Ole Miss Saturday.
|11-03-12||Washington State +12 v. Utah||6-49||Loss||-110||64 h 28 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +12
The Utah Utes are way overvalued heading into this showdown Saturday. They are getting way too much respect for their 49-27 home win over Cal last week that was gift-wrapped by the Golden Bears. Cal gave up two 100-yard kickoff return touchdowns and a fumble return for a score, which is how it lost by 22 despite outgaining the Utes 441-344 for the game.
Washington State may be just 2-6, but this team is much better than its record would indicate. It just lost at Stanford 17-24 last Saturday as a 25-point underdog. It recently got back its secret weapon in starting quarterback Jeff Tuel from injury.
The Cougars actually outgained the Cardinal 385-256 last Saturday and really should have won the game. Stanford had a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that proved to be the difference. Tuel completed 43 of 60 passes for 401 yards and two touchdowns against a very good Stanford defense.
Tuel will be the key to the Cougars likely pulling off this upset Saturday. Utah has given up some big passing numbers this season. It gave up 372 against Arizona State, 303 against USC and 288 against California. Teams struggle to run the football on the Utes, but the Cougars don't run it one bit. They will have a lot of success through the air Saturday.
Washington State lost 27-30 at home to Utah last season. It simply gave that game away because despite throwing for 337 yards, the Cougars committed five turnovers and had a -3 turnover differential for the game, which proved to be the difference. The Cougars want revenge in this one and will take better care of the football.
The Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 0-4 ATS int is last 4 games following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Utes are officially on upset alert heading into this one folks. Take Washington State Saturday.
|11-03-12||Miami (OH) v. Buffalo -3.5||24-27||Loss||-102||61 h 29 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -3.5
Buffalo is just 1-7 with its only win against an FCS opponent, yet it is still favored against Miami (Ohio) Saturday. Oddsmakers know what they're doing here folks, realizing that Buffalo is a better team than its record and one that should warrant a big wager as it crushes the Redhawks Saturday.
The Bulls have lost to seven FBS opponents this season with a combined record of 44-14 SU, including five one-loss teams. The only exceptions were Big East programs Pitt and UConn. Buffalo has been an underdog in all but one of those contests as it gave up 3 points to Kent State in Week 4, who beat Rutgers last week.
Buffalo has returned star running back Branden Oliver, who is arguably the most explosive player in the MAC. He rushed for 101 yards last week in a 25-20 loss to Toledo in his first game back from a knee injury suffered against the Golden Flashes back in September.
Miami (Ohio) is in a huge letdown spot here. It just beat instate rival Ohio 23-20 last Saturday, handing the Bobcats their first loss of the season. It will be very tough for the Redhawks to get up emotionally to play this Saturday and match their intensity from last week's home contest. It's just not going to happen.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Roll with Buffalo Saturday.
|11-03-12||Oklahoma -11 v. Iowa State||Top||35-20||Win||100||69 h 49 m||Show|
25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -11
The Oklahoma Sooners should roll right over the Iowa State Cyclones Saturday. This line has been set too low due to Oklahoma's loss to Notre Dame last week. Well, both of the Sooners' losses this season have come against two unbeaten teams in Notre Dame and Kansas State that don't get the credit they deserve.
The Sooners have owned this series with the Cyclones, and that won't change Saturday. Oklahoma has won 13 straight meetings with Iowa State by an average score of 32-8. It has also won 20 straight road meetings with the Cyclones with its last loss in Ames coming in 1960.
Iowa State is going to be without its best defensive player in linebacker Jake Knott, who was a first-team All-Big 12 performer a year ago. The Cyclones are simply going to be overmatched talent-wise all over the field. They have averaged a mere 5 points/game in their last six meetings with Oklahoma.
The Sooners are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss. Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet Oklahoma Saturday.
|11-02-12||Washington +4.5 v. California||Top||21-13||Win||100||46 h 25 m||Show|
20* Washington/Cal ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Washington +4.5
|11-01-12||Virginia Tech v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 58||Top||12-30||Win||100||21 h 56 m||Show|
25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on VA Tech/Miami UNDER 58
Oddsmakers have inflated this total in Thursday's ACC rivalry between the Virginia Tech Hokies and Miami Hurricanes. I'll take advantage by backing the UNDER as my strongest over/under release for the entire 2012 season in ACC play.
Virginia Tech was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the country this season. While it hasn't been up to par on this side of the ball, a closer look says that the Hokies have actually been pretty good on defense.
The Hokies are giving up 24.0 points and 370 total yards/game this season. Sure, that doesn't sound great, but when you consider that the eight opponents they've played average 30.3 points and 411 total yards/game, it's easy to see that they've simply been up against some of the best offenses in the country. They've actually done a pretty good job, holding them to 6.3 points and 41 total yards less than their season averages.
Miami's defense hasn't been spectacular this season, but it has had a similar problem to Virginia Tech. It has simply played eight opposing offenses that average 31.4 points and 430 total yards per game. Both team's defensive numbers have been inflated due to the quality of offenses they have faced.
Neither of these offenses is really lighting it up as Virginia Tech averages 29.0 points overall and 23.0 on the road. Miami averages 26.9 points and 29.0 at home. I look for both teams to be held below their season averages in this one.
I believe a big reason this total is inflated is due to last year's meeting, which saw Virginia Tech win 38-35 at home. That final was simply an aberration considering the total was set at 45.5 points, so oddsmakers were expecting a much lower-scoring game. Eight of the last nine meetings in this series have seen 58 or less combined points. That 73-point outburst last year was the only exception.
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, and that extra preparation certainly favors the defense. There won't be any element of surprise as both teams have had two weeks to prepare for one another. The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Hurricanes last 60 home games.
Virginia Tech is 13-2 to the UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 14-2 in Hokies last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games following a bye week. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami. These five trends combine for a 42-4 (91% System) backing the UNDER. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-27-12||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 47.5||7-38||Win||100||93 h 36 m||Show|
15* Miss State/Alabama ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47.5
I look for a defensive battle Saturday between Mississippi State and Alabama. These are two of the best defenses in the country, and points will be hard to come by, especially for the Bulldogs.
Alabama gives up just 8.3 points/game while ranking 1st in the country in total defense (195.6 yard/game). They rank 1st against the run (58.7 yards/game) and 2nd against the pass (136.9 yards/game) as they simply do not give up an inch.
Mississippi State is yielding just 14.4 points/game while ranking 25th in total defense (327.7 yards/game). Both offenses are kind of vanilla, and each will struggle to move the football on these two stop units.
Each of the last 14 meetings in this series have seen 44 or less combined points with the under going 9-2 in those contests. Considering the total is 47.5 for this meeting, that makes for a perfect 14-0 system backing the UNDER dating back to 1998. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-27-12||Notre Dame +10 v. Oklahoma||30-13||Win||100||92 h 7 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to get no respect despite their 7-0 start and No. 5 ranking in the BCS and AP polls. I look for head coach Brian Kelly to use the fact that they are 10-point underdogs as big motivation for his team heading into this game with Oklahoma.
Notre Dame has to be feeling disrespected right now and wanting to take out its frustration on the Sooners. It has beaten three ranked teams along the way to this 7-0 start with victories over then-No. 18 Michigan, then-No. 10 Michigan State and then-No. 17 Stanford.
The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a 6-1 start and have pretty much made easy work of everyone expect Kansas State. Well, the Wildcats were the only real physical team that the Sooners have faced, and they beat Oklahoma in Norman 24-19. Oklahoma has only beaten one ranked team this season in Texas, who are clearly down again this season.
As I mentioned before, Notre Dame is a physical team like Kansas State, and that's why it will have success against this soft Oklahoma squad. The Irish give up just 9.4 points/game while ranking 6th in the country in total defense (280.7 yards/game), including 15th against the run (106.7 yards/game) and 13th against the pass (174.0 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses on defense. They are also 38th in rushing offense (193.9 yards/game), winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
The Irish are 6-0 ATS n road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons, winning by 21.1 points/game in this spot. Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive unders since 1992. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|10-27-12||Central Florida -2 v. Marshall||54-17||Win||100||92 h 6 m||Show|
15* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Florida -2
The UCF Knights are clearly the superior team in this showdown with Marshall Saturday. The oddsmakers have this one right as they have installed them as a road favorite in this Conference USA clash.
UCF is 5-2 this season with its only losses coming against BCS opponents Ohio State and Missouri. Its five wins have all come by a touchdown or more, and four have come by 13 points or more. This team is clearly the real deal in 2012 and the class of Conference USA.
Marshall is just 3-4 on the season with its only wins coming against Western Carolina, Rice and Southern Miss. Many bettors like Marshall because of their gaudy offensive numbers, but this team doesn't play a lick of defense, which is where this game will be decided.
UCF ranks 38th in the country in total defense (352.9 yards/game) while also giving up only 22.0 points/game. Marshall ranks 100th in total defense (450.0 yards/game) and gives up 41.6 points/game. The Knights will be able to hold the Thundering Herd's offense in check while also scoring at will on their suspect defense.
This play is a lot about program dominance too as the Knights have owned the Thundering Herd this decade. UCF is a perfect 7-0 SU in seven meetings with Marshall dating back to 2005. It should be a much bigger favorite Saturday as it goes for its eighth straight victory in this series. Roll with UCF Saturday.
|10-27-12||Navy +5 v. East Carolina||Top||56-28||Win||100||119 h 17 m||Show|
25* College Football DOG OF THE YEAR on Navy +5
The Navy Midshipmen represent my favorite underdog bet for the entire 2012 college football season Saturday. They should not be a dog in a game that I fully expect them to win outright. I'll just take the points for some insurance here folks.
Navy has won three straight since making the switch to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who is easily their best playmaker. He replaced Trey Miller in the Air Force game, leading the Midshipmen to a 28-21 overtime victory of the comeback variety on the road.
Reynolds scored on a 15-yard touchdown run to tie the game at 21-21 with 6:35 remaining in the fourth quarter. He threw three touchdown passes in a win 31-13 win at Central Michigan the next week, and led another comeback 31-30 home win over a very underrated Indiana team last Saturday.
This team clearly has a ton of confidence in Reynolds and they will ride their momentum into East Carolina this weekend. Reynolds is completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 362 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions on 37 attempts. He has also rushed for 165 yards and two scores, and his dual-threat ability makes him perfect for this offense.
Navy wants revenge from a 35-38 home loss to East Carolina last season. Its last trip to East Carolina resulted in a 76-35 victory for the Midshipmen in 2010. The Pirates are simply overrated at 5-3 this season as their five wins have come against Appalachian State, Southern Miss, UTEP, Memphis and UAB.
As you can see, the Pirates have not beaten a worthy opponents yet. Their three losses came against South Carolina (10-48), North Carolina (6-27) and UCF (20-40). They weren't even competitive when they took a step up in competition. Navy is a much better team than all five of the squads that East Carolina has beaten this season.
Navy is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less since 1992. It is winning in this spot by 17.7 points/game. East Carolina is 1-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. It is losing in this spot by 12.4 points/game. Bet Navy Saturday.
|10-27-12||Florida v. Georgia +7||Top||9-17||Win||100||89 h 49 m||Show|
20* Gators/Bulldogs SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7
The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now after opening the season 7-0. They were underrated in the first half of the season, but now it's time to switch gears and fade them Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia is undervalued at this point of the year after its 6-1 start. It has not played up to its potential after winning the SEC East last season. The Bulldogs are still at least even with Florida talent-wise, and I believe they put their best foot forward Saturday with the East title at stake. A loss would eliminate Georgia in the title race.
The reason Florida is so overvalued here is because it beat South Carolina 44-11 last week at home. That was one of the most misleading scores I've ever seen as it was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Gators were actually outgained 183-191 by the Gamecocks, but South Carolina was -4 in turnovers and set Florida up with several easy scores.
The last two meetings in this series were decided by four points or less, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire again. Georgia beat Florida 24-20 last season while outgaining the Gators 354-226.
Georgia has a much more potent offense than Florida, and while I'll admit the Gators have the better defense, the gap in talent on that side of the ball isn't that far off. Georgia ranks 18th in the country in total offense (486.9 yards/game) while Florida ranks 101st in total offense (350.4 yards/game). Georgia ranks 47th in total defense (367.4 yards/game), but it will be much improved on this side of the ball as the season goes on with the return of several suspended defensive starters recently.
The Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take Georgia Saturday.
|10-27-12||BYU v. Georgia Tech -2.5||41-17||Loss||-108||87 h 6 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -2.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are undervalued at this point in the season due to their slow start. This team is much better than its 3-4 record would indicate, and it certainly cannot afford to lose this contest if it wants to become bowl eligible by season's end.
Three of Georgia Tech's losses have come against Virginia Tech and Clemson on the road, and Miami at home. The Yellow Jackets arguably should have won all three of those contests as they blew a 3-point lead over the final minute against the Hokies, a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against Miami, and a 31-30 fourth quarter lead against Clemson.
BYU is coming off a tough 14-17 loss at Notre Dame as it lost in the final seconds to fall to 4-4 on the season. This team simply has not been able to generate enough offense to win games consistently in 2012. It has been held to 24 or less points in five of its last six games, going 2-4 in the process.
BYU has a very good defense, but it has been up against some very weak competition all season on the offensive end. Opposing teams that BYU has played have only averaged 22.6 points and 355 total yards/game this season. The Cougars will have their hands full with a Georgia Tech offense that ranks 15th in the country at 497.7 total yards/game.
The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Independent teams. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|10-27-12||Tennessee +14 v. South Carolina||35-38||Win||100||84 h 5 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +14
The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching two touchdowns against the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday. The Vols are way undervalued due to their 0-4 start in SEC play which couldn't have come against tougher competition.
All four of Tennessee's losses in the SEC have come against Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama, which are four teams that all rank within the Top 13 in the AP Poll. It doesn't get a whole lot easier against South Carolina Saturday, but I believe they catch the Gamecocks in a great spot.
South Carolina is reeling from two straight losses to LSU and Florida that essentially knocked them out of the national title and SEC East title races. I fully expect the Gamecocks to suffer a hangover from those two defeats and not show up Saturday knowing that their goals have been stripped away from them over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, Tennessee will be extra motivated for its first conference victory. It played both Georgia and Mississippi State tough on the road, losing by just 7 points to Georgia and 10 to Mississippi State. It should have no problem staying within two touchdowns Saturday in a game it can win outright.
South Carolina simply does not have the offensive firepower it takes to cover this big of a spread against a team that is just as talented. The Gamecocks only won 14-3 in Knoxville last season against a Vols team that was playing without star quarterback Tyler Bray and star wide receiver Justin Hunter, who were both out with injuries.
Bray is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Hunter has caught 39 balls for 567 yards and four scores. Having these two healthy this time around will make a huge difference in the outcome of this rematch.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 12.6 points/game. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in South Carolina. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|10-26-12||Nevada -3 v. Air Force||Top||31-48||Loss||-110||71 h 37 m||Show|
20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -3
The Nevada Wolf Pack should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the Air Force Falcons. I'll gladly back them as only a 3-point favorite here. The Falcons are simply overmatched in this one.
Nevada is a dynamic offensive team that the Falcons will have a hard time keeping up with on the scoreboard. It is scoring 40.6 points/game while averaging 541.1 total yards/game, ranking 6th in the country in total offense. They beat teams behind a balanced attack that features 272.0 yards on the ground and 269.1 through the air.
The Wolf Pack could easily be 8-0 right now, but they are 6-2 due to two losses by exactly one point each. Coming off a 38-39 overtime loss to San Diego State last week, this team will be highly motivated to bounce back with a victory tonight. Nevada is 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 44.0 to 26.5 in the process.
Nevada takes advantage of its red zone opportunities, scoring on 37 of 44 possessions inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Of those 37 scores, a whopping 32 have been touchdowns! Air Force has converted just 21 of 30 trips inside the red zone. Air Force has given up 24 scores on 27 trips by opponents into the red zone, including 19 touchdowns.
The Falcons have faced a very soft schedule with poor offensive teams along the way. Still, they are giving up a ridiculous 427.4 yards/game, ranking 83rd in the country in total defense. They are giving up 222 rushing yards/game and 5.4/carry on the ground, while Nevada is yielding a respectable 156 yards/game and 4.3/carry.
Air Force is 0-7 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Chris Ault is 9-1 ATS versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of Nevada. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Nevada Friday.
|10-25-12||Clemson -11.5 v. Wake Forest||42-13||Win||100||46 h 7 m||Show|
15* Clemson/Wake Forest ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -11.5
Provided Clemson doesn't commit numerous self-inflicted wounds, it should win this game by three-plus touchdowns against overmatched Wake Forest Thursday. The Tigers simply have the edge in talent and speed in this one, and the Demon Deacons aren't going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard.
The No. 14 Tigers (6-1, 3-1) are averaging 40.9 points and 492.9 yards per game, and they haven't scored fewer than 37 points since a season-opening 26-19 win over Auburn on Sept. 1. They rank 1st in red zone scoring offense, converting 32 of 33 trips into points, including 23 touchdowns. They are also a surprising 16th in red zone defense, giving up just 18 scores in 26 trips, including a mere 12 touchdowns.
Wake Forest is nowhere near as good as its 4-3 record would indicate. Three of those wins have come against Liberty, Army and Virginia. The Demon Deacons rank just 112th in the country in total offense (316.1 yards/game), and they are scoring a mere 22.0 points/game. They have been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking 73rd in total defense (405.0 yards/game).
Clemson has won three straight over Wake Forest by a combined score of 99-41. Sure, the Tigers only won 31-28 at home last year, but that final score was very misleading. Clemson outgained Wake 522-317 for the game, but it was -3 in turnovers and allowed a punt return for a touchdown.
When teams outgain opponents by more than 200 yards, they usually win by at least two touchdowns. I expect the Tigers to eliminate their self-inflicted wounds this time around.
The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Demon Deacons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Wake is 1-11 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Clemson is 8-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take Clemson Thursday.
|10-23-12||Arkansas State +4.5 v. Louisiana-Lafayette||Top||50-27||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
20* Arkansas State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +4.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt last season with an unbeaten 8-0 record in conference play. They have the talent again in 2012 to repeat as champs, and a win over Louisiana-Lafayette tonight would be a big step in that direction.
Arkansas State is off to a 4-3 start this season. Its only losses have come on the road against Oregon and Nebraska out of conference, and Western Kentucky within the conference. The Red Wolves blew a 13-0 halftime lead to the Hilltoppers, who are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt.
Louisiana-Lafayette has played a much softer schedule than Arkansas State, which is a big reason why it is 4-2 right now. Its four wins have come against Lamar, Troy, Florida International and Tulane. Despite playing a weaker schedule than the Arkansas State, the Rajin' Cajuns have posted worse numbers.
The Red Wolves rank 35th in the country in total offense (448.7 yards/game) and 52nd in total defense (376.3 yards/game). The Rajin' Cajuns rank 62nd in total offense (404.5 yards/game) and 81st in total defense (422.2 yards/game). As you can see, Lafayette is actually getting outgained on the season.
Lafayette lost at North Texas last Tuesday 23-30, while Arkansas State beat South Alabama 36-29 at home last Saturday. That means the Red Wolves have had three extra days to prepare for the Rajin' Cajuns, which is clearly advantage. Also, Lafayette's top two receivers in Harry Peoples and Javone Lawson were knocked out of the North Texas game, and each is questionable to return Tuesday.
Arkansas State beat Lafayette 30-21 last year. Quarterback Ryan Aplin had a big day, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score. Aplin has been solid again this season, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,572 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 244 yards and three scores.
This play falls into a system that is 69-30 (69.7%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against home favorites (LA LAFAYETTE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.