15* LSU/Wisconsin ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU -5

I have a lot of respect for Gary Andersen and the job he has done at both Utah State and in his first year at Wisconsin last season.  The Badgers went 9-4 last season with all three of their regular season losses coming by a touchdown or less.  Then, they fell to SEC foe South Carolina 24-34 in the Capital One Bowl, and I believe that will be a sign of things to come when they face LSU to kick off their 2014 season.

Wisconsin isn't even as strong of a team as it was a year ago.  It only returns 10 starters in all this year, including three on defense.  Their stop unit takes a tremendous hit with the loss of leading tackler Chris Borland, whose 112 tackles were 49 more than second place.  He was the heart and soul of this defense and will be missed badly.  In fact, the Badgers break in seven new starters among the front seven, so look for LSU to run it down their throats all game long.

The Tigers have averaged the fourth-best recruiting class in the country over the last three years.  They are stocked with talent at the running back position, so the loss of Jeremy Hill won't be felt.  They averaged 202 yards per game and 5.0 per carry on the ground last season, and those numbers should be even better in 2014.  That's especially the case with four starters and 75 career starts returning on the offensive line, which is arguably Les Miles' best unit in his 10 years here.

I would be lying if I said that Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin's offensive line don't scare me, but if anything, that is a wash against LSU's defense.  The Tigers return seven starters on D after having just four back on that side of the ball last year.  They have allowed 3.9 or fewer yards per carry in each of the last seven seasons, which is all of the data I currently have in front of me.  Most likely, that streak extends back further.

How I see this game playing out is LSU taking a nice-sized lead in the first half and forcing Wisconsin to abandon its game plan of running the football.  The Badgers not proven they can throw the football consistently, and now they'll be without arguably their most important player on offense last year in Jared Abbrederis.  He caught 78 balls for 1,081 yards and seven touchdowns last season and constantly bailed out the offense when they needed a big play in the passing game.  In fact, the Badgers lose each of their top three receivers from last year.  Their only strength is their running game, and that's not enough to beat this stacked LSU team, or to even keep the game relatively close.

This will be the fourth time in the last five years that LSU opens with a tough neutral site game.  They are 3-0 in their last three with an average margin of victory of 10 points per game.  They beat then-No. 18 UNC (30-24) in 2010, then-No. 3 Oregon (40-27) in 2011, and then-No. 20 TCU (37-27) in 2013.  Chalk up four straight victories by 6 points or more to open the season on neutral sites for the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

**Due to an error in one of the odds feeds this game switched in our system to another, so we are re-releasing it just so it grades correctly***

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Louisiana Tech +38

Oklahoma is way overvalued heading into the 2014 season because of its win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year.  I believe the Sooners caught the Crimson Tide in a letdown spot because they had played in the BCS Championship the two previous years, and they clearly were not up for that game.  While I do believe that Oklahoma should be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year, it isn't as clear-cut as most folks in the media are making it out to be.

Trevor Knight played great down the stretch for the Sooners, but he's still just a sophomore and won't be as good as everyone is anticipating.  That's especially the case when you consider that the offense only have five starters back on this side of the ball and will be breaking in several new skill players.  I just don't believe that the Sooners have the offensive firepower to cover this 38-point spread against what will be an improved Louisiana Tech team.

Indeed, the Bulldogs will be much better in Skip Holtz's second season.  They should be one of the most improved teams in the country statistically.  They had gone 17-8 over two seasons before Holtz took over.  He was left with nothing as the Bulldogs had just seven starters back last year.  Now they have 13 starters back in 2014 and many of Holtz's own recruits in place to get significant playing time.  There will be value in backing this team in the early going because the public perception on them is down after last season's disaster.

I like the addition of former Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback.  He'll have the luxury of handing the ball off to both Kenneth Dixon (917 yards, 6.1/carry) and Tevin King (539 yards, 5.8/carry), who were bright spots on an otherwise down season last year.  The defense held its own last season in allowing a respectable 26.3 points per game despite having just four starters back.  This unit should be even better in 2014 with seven starters and five of the top six tacklers back.

Oklahoma will be without its leader defensively.  Middle linebacker Frank Shannon has been suspended for the opener, and possibly the entire season. He not only led the team in tackles (92) last year, but he's also the vocal leader of this stop unit, and the man calling the shots in the middle.  I simply believe this is a case of the betting public giving Oklahoma too much respect coming into the season, and Louisiana Tech not enough.

Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA) – in non-conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 63-25 (71.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn SEC Opener on Arkansas +19

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014 from a statistical standpoint.  Bret Bielema had his hands full in 2013 with just 10 starters back.  They went just 3-9, and after opening 3-0, they would lose each of their final nine games while going winless in SEC play.  While that sounds like an awful finish, I was actually impressed by a couple of their losses late in the season.

Indeed, the Razorbacks only lost 24-34 at Ole Miss as a 17-point underdog, 17-24 (OT) at home to Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog, and then 27-31 at LSU as a 26-point underdog.  They actually had LSU down 27-24 with only one minute remaining, but the Tigers drove the length of the field and stole victory from the jaws of defeat.

Now, with 14 starters returning in the second year of Bielema's system, the Razorbacks are going to sneak up on some teams this year.  They have one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back with Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD).  Three starters and 51 career starts return along the offensive line.  QB Brandon Allen will be better than he was a year ago.  The defense will be improved as well with seven starters and five of the top seven tacklers back.

I am not high on Auburn at all this year.  They are way overvalued after miraculously making the national title game last season.  However, they won six games by 8 points or less, so they were very fortunate to get that far.  They wound up as SEC Champs, but there were a few teams that I would rank as better teams than them last year, including Alabama and LSU. 

The Tigers do have 14 starters back, but will be missing a key one in the opener.  QB Nick Marshall will be suspended for at least part of the game as he will not start.  He was cited in July for possession of marijuana.  It's not clear how much he will play, but he at least will not start.  Also, starting CB Jonathan Mincy will not start the game either because of the same offense.

These teams played last year with Auburn winning by a final of 35-17 on the road.  However, a closer look shows that game was much closer than the score would indicate.  The Razorbacks were only outgained 346-366 for the game, or by 20 total yards.  They actually gained seven more first downs than Auburn in the loss.  The difference in that game was that Arkansas finished -3 in turnover differential, which is unlikely to happen again.

This is an Auburn defense that gave up 421 total yards and 162 rushing yards per game last year.  Arkansas will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Tigers to keep this one close.  After all, they rushed for 222 yards while averaging 4.7 per carry against the Tigers last season.  This game will be much closer than expected, and I wouldn't be surprise to see it as a one-score game in the 4th quarter.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -26

Just as they do every year, the Alabama Crimson Tide will make their opponent look like a high school team in the opener.  That opponent in 2014 is West Virginia, which was one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year, finishing in a tie for seventh place.  This game is going to get ugly in a hurry as the Tide roll to victory.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 straight home openers by an average of 25 points per game.  The last four have been absolute blowouts.  They beat San Jose State (48-3) as a 37-point favorite in 2010, Kent State (48-7) as a 39-point favorite in 2011, Michigan (41-14) as a 13-point favorite in 2012 and Virginia Tech (35-10) as a 21-point favorite in 2013.  You can add another blowout and cover to that résumé in 2014.

Alabama will be highly motivated after losing each of its final two games last year after a perfect 11-0 start.  This is one of Nick Saban's most experienced teams yet with 12 starters back.  The offense is going to be dynamic even with a new starting quarterback.  You have to remember that Jake Coker nearly beat out Heisman Trophy winner, Jameis Winston, last year at Florida State.

While capable, Coker won't have to do too much in the early going.  He can simply hand the ball off the to best running back corps in the country in TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 6.0/carry, 14 TD), Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 7.5/carry, 8 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 yards, 10.9/carry, 3 TD) all game and watch them do their thing.  They'll be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country that paved the way for 206 yards and 5.8/carry on the ground last year.

The defense only brings back five starters, but that's not a big deal at all.  The last time the Crimson Tide only had five starters back, they allowed 10.9 points per game in 2012.  This stop unit is still loaded with future NFL stars.  After all, Nick Saban's defenses have allowed 14.3 points per game or fewer for six seasons running.

Admittedly, West Virginia is not going to be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much off a 4-8 disaster that saw two of its wins come against William & Mary (24-17) and Georgia State (41-7) at home.  The Mountaineers do have 13 starters back this year after only having eight back last season, but there really isn't a lot of talent on this team.  They are still in a mess at the QB position with Clint Trickett, who only completed 52.8 percent of his passes last year with seven touchdowns and seven picks.  He's not going to be much better this year, especially in the opener against the best defense he has ever seen by far.

The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five August games.  West Virginia is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games on fieldturf.  The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Troy +3

The Troy Trojans have had just five losing seasons in the last 22 years.  Larry Blakeney enters his 24th season here as head coach, and time and time again he fields teams that are capable of competing with almost any team in the country with the talent on hand.  That's why it has been a bit mind-boggling that this team has failed to finish with a winning record in each of the last three years.

That will all change in 2014 as Blakeney welcomes back 12 returning starters after having just seven back during a 6-6 campaign last season.  This team has had some tough luck in recent years as well.  The Trojans lost a ridiculous six games by a touchdown or less during a 5-7 campaign in 2012. They then lost three games by a touchdown or less last season with two of the three exceptions coming on the road against SEC powers Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

While 12 starters doesn't seem like a big number, it is actually pretty big for Troy as it is their second-most returning starters over the last five years.  The Trojans also have 56 lettermen returning, so this is going to be a deep, experienced team.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them win the Sun Belt, which is something that has happened quite frequently under Blakeney's watch.

UAB, on the other hand, is known for losing.  It has not won more than five games in any of the past nine seasons, and it has even failed to win five games in seven of those nine years.  2013 was no exception as the Blazers went just 2-10 despite having 15 starters back.  Their only wins came against FCS opponent Northwestern State (52-28) as well as winless FIU (27-24).  They even got blown out at home in the season finale by previously winless Southern Miss (27-62).

Sure, the Blazers have 15 starters back this year, but that doesn't mean much for them because there isn't much talent to speak of here for first-year head coach Bill Clark.  In fact, the Blazers have had 14 or more starters back in four of the past five seasons.  How have they done over that time?  How about a combined 17-43 record.  So, just because a team has a lot of starters back doesn't always mean it's a good thing, especially for small-school programs like UAB who cannot recruit talent.

Troy has won four of the last five meetings in this series, including each of the last three.  Corey Robinson broke an 18-year-old NCAA record by completing 93.8% (30-32) of his passes in a 34-31 overtime win over the Blazers last season in the opener.  Remember, this was an inexperienced Troy team last year with just seven starters back.  With 12 back this year and 56 lettermen, they will be much more prepared for the opener, and should roll this time.

UAB is just 22-42 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They had blowout losses to Vanderbilt (24-52), UTSA (31-52), Marshall (14-56), East Carolina (14-63) and Southern Miss (27-62) during this 2-7 ATS skid dating back to last season.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +21

The UCLA Bruins are coming into the 2014 season way overvalued.  They are a popular pick to win the Pac-12 this season and make the four-team playoff.  As a result, the betting public is way too high on them in the early going, starting with this opener against Virginia on the road.

Conversely, Virginia is coming off a 2-10 season in which it went winless in ACC play.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavaliers, and as a result they head into the 2014 season underdog.  They should not be catching three touchdowns against the Bruins Saturday.

Mike London hasn't gotten the most out of the talent he has had on hand.  A big reason for that is the fact that this team has been decimated by injuries in recent years.  I look for them to have better luck in that department in 2014, which will lead to them being one of the more improved teams in the country statistically.

Speaking of talent, Virginia has actually averaged the 31st-best recruiting class in the country over the last three seasons.  That talent could start paying off as soon as this year, especially when you consider that this should be London's best team yet.  Indeed, he will be working with a whopping 17 returning starters and 53 lettermen from last year's squad.

The offense is going to be vastly improved.  All of the top rushers are back, including Kevin Parks (1,031 yards, 11 TD).  QB Greyson Lambert got his feet wet with a little playing time as a freshman last year, and he's got the talent to really emerge as a sophomore.  He'll be working behind an offensive line that has three starters and 49 career starts back. 

I'm really excited about the defense as eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers return.  This will easily be one of the most improved stop units in the country.  Headlining the defense is All-ACC safety Anthony Harris, who led the nation with eight interceptions last year.  I believe this defense will keep the UCLA offense in check and allow the Cavaliers to cover three touchdowns.  Roll with Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes would be a much bigger favorite if Braxton Miller was playing.  While Miller is an excellent player, Urban Meyer has done a lot more with worse starters than JT Barrett, who will get the start Saturday against Navy.  I look for it to be business as usual for the Buckeyes, who will roll to victory against the overmatched Midshipmen in this one.

Meyer would have a case for being the best coach in college football with two national championships at Florida and a perfect 12-0 season at Utah.  That doesn't even include how he turned Bowling Green around in his time there.  Nor does it include that fact that Ohio State went a perfect 24-0 in his first 24 games as head coach over the last two seasons before dropping the last two to Michigan State and Clemson.

The quarterback is J.T. Barrett, and while he's not as athletic or dynamic as Braxton Miller, who is? Alex Smith wasn't. Josh Harris wasn't. Neither was Chris Leak nor Kenny Guiton. And Meyer did just fine with those guys, using Harris to win 17 games in two seasons at Bowling Green, Smith to go 12-0 at Utah, Leak to win a national title at Florida and Guiton to replace the injured Miller a year ago and lead the Buckeyes to three straight victories.

Meyer inherited that quartet (Smith, Harris, Leak, Guiton) from the previous staff at each school, just as he inherited Braxton Miller from Jim Tressel. In most cases, most obviously with Smith, Harris and Guiton, but also Miller, Meyer milked more than expected from each quarterback, and he did it right away.

When he hand-picks a guy at QB, they usually thrive even more.  Barrett is a handpicked recruit and one of the top-three dual-threat quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  Meyer handpicked Omar Jacobs at Bowling Green, and he set all kinds of school records playing for Meyer's former assistant, Gregg Brandon, in Meyer's offense.  The same thing happened at Utah with Brian Johnson, who thrived under Meyer assistant Kyle Whittingham, once again Meyer's system.  We all know how Tim Tebow and Cam Newton worked out, as well.

Barrett will be fine because this team is loaded with talented skill players around him.  But the defense is the biggest reason why I like Ohio State to roll Navy.  After returning just four starters on defense last year, the Buckeyes welcome back seven starters on D in 2014.  They will play more press coverage to mask the secondary, which was a weakness last year for this team.  It can only get better in 2014.

The good news is that the secondary won't be needed against Navy's triple-option offense.  It will be the front seven that needs to stop it, and perhaps no better team is equipped to do so than Ohio State.  It has the best defensive line in the entire country with all four starters returning from a unit that gave up only 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This unit is loaded with nothing but future-early-round NFL draft picks in Noah Spence, Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington.

Another key to this game is that Ohio State has had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option.  Without question, the triple-option is the toughest offense to prepare for.  That's why Navy has had so much success during the regular season over the past decade.  However, when an opponent gets extra time to prepare for it, the Midshipmen are at a massive disadvantage.  They cannot adjust because that's all they run.  They is almost zero threat of the passing game.  Meyer will have the troops prepared to stop Keenan Reynolds and company.

Plays on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Ohio State Saturday.

25* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -3

It amazes me that the Colorado Buffaloes are only a 3-point favorite over the Colorado State Rams in the opener.  This is a clear line mistake, and one that we will take advantage of.  The Buffaloes beat the Rams 41-27 last year in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Buffaloes outgained the Rams 509-295 for the game.

Colorado only went 4-8 last season, and it is undervalued as a result.  This is the second year under head coach Mike MacIntyre, and the Buffaloes are going to surprise some teams this year.  They have 16 starters and 57 lettermen returning, while losing only 18 lettermen. 

That includes QB Sefo Liufao, who threw for 1,779 yards and 12 touchdowns against eight interceptions last year.  A whopping 13 of the top 16 tacklers are back on defense. MacIntyre went 1-15 in his first 16 games at San Jose State, but 16-6 in his next 22 games.  He will turn this program around as well.

Colorado State is getting too much respect for me coming into the season.  It is coming off an 8-6 season, which included a miracle comeback victory over Washington State in the bowl game as the Cougars simply gave it away.  That win over WSU is a big reason why this team is getting so much respect.  However, the losses are enormous, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Rams only bring back 12 starters this year.  They lose leading rusher Kapri Bibbs (1,741 yards, 31 TD) as well as four starters along the offensive line.  The defensive line brings back just one of four starters, so this team figures to get owned the trenches, and there's clearly no replacing Bibbs.

The Buffaloes finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games, which included a 7-point loss at Utah as a 15-point underdog, a 29-47 home loss to USC as a 21-point dog, a 41-24 home win over Cal as a 2-point favorite, and a 23-45 loss at UCLA as a 28-point dog.  I look for them to continue being a covering machine not only at the start of 2014, but for much of the season as this team is vastly improved.  Bet Colorado Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UTSA +11.5

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football entering 2014.  I actually have them winning Conference USA's West Division and squaring off against Marshall in the C-USA Title Game.  I cannot say enough good things about fourth-year head coach Larry Coker, who has really done an excellent job with this team.

UTSA went 7-5 last year, but this will be the first year that it can be bowl eligible, and I believe it will get to a bowl.  This team comes in with a ton of momentum after going 5-0 in ts final five games of 2013 with wins over FBS opponents UAB (52-31), Tulsa (34-15), Tulane (10-7), North Texas (21-13) and Louisiana Tech (30-10).  Two of those five teams made bowl games.

Now, Coker will be working with the most experienced team in the entire country.  Indeed, UTSA returns a whopping 20 starters and 55 lettermen while losing only 10.  They had 18 starters back last year, so this is a veteran group that is used to playing one another.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year despite finishing -7 in turnover differential on the season, too.

Sure, UTSA lost 28-59 at home to Houston last season, but a deeper look into the box score shows that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Indeed, UTSA actually outgained Houston 493-491 for the game, but it finished -5 in turnover differential as it gave the ball away five times, while the Cougars didn't cough it up once.  In fact, this was a 31-28 game heading into the 4th quarter.  This 2014 rematch will be much closer, and I even give the Roadrunners a great shot to win it outright.

Houston thrived off of turnovers last year, and it comes into 2014 overvalued as a result.  It went 8-5 last year, but it was very fortunate to finish with that record thanks to leading the country in turnover differential (+25).  That's essentially an average of +2 in turnover differential per game.  The Cougars simply cannot rely on that again in 2014, and they aren't going to be as strong as a result.  They only outgained opponents 420-416 on the year.  They do have 17 returning starters and will be a quality team, but they are getting too much love as a double-digit favorite in the 2014 opener.

The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  UTSA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  You'll learn to love this team once you watch them give the Cougars a run for their money Friday night.  Take UTSA Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Western Kentucky +8

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be going through their third head coach in three years.  Both Willie Taggart and Bobby Petrino capitalized on getting WKU to bowl eligibility in each of the last three seasons, and they both left for greener pastures.  Taggart is now the head coach at South Florida, while Petrino returns to Louisville.

Enter Jeff Brohm, who will actually keep some continuity on this team considering he was the assistant head coach/offensive coordinator under Petrino last year.  He played quarterback under Petrino at Louisville, so he certainly has learned under one of the best offensive minds in all of college football.

Brohm and the WKU offense will have plenty of success this year after putting up 30.8 points and 459 yards per game last season.  That's because eight starters return on this side of the ball, including senior QB Brandon Doughty, who completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,857 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.  He will need to cut back on his turnovers because the Hilltoppers finished -10 in turnover differential, but that's a sign that points upward for them heading into 2014.

Bowling Green is getting way too much respect after going 10-4 last year and winning the MAC.  That was a quality team, but they lose head coach Dave Clawson to Wake Forest, and they only have 12 starters back this year after bringing back 16 last year.  They are sure to take a big step back in 2014, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They only have five starters back on D, and they were extremely fortunate to give up 15.9 ppg last year because they gave up 20.3 yards per point, which is ridiculously high.

The Falcons also finish +10 in turnover differential last year to aid their cause.  They did go 3-2 in true road games, but their three wins came against lowly Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, who went a combined 6-30 last season.  They also lost at Indiana (10-42).  This is going to be a quality team again in 2014, but nowhere near as strong as 2013.  Asking the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown on the road against a quality WKU squad is simply asking too much.

Plays on home teams (W KENTUCKY) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WKU is 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Roll with Western Kentucky Friday.

20* 2014 College Football Season Opener on Tulsa -4.5

Tulsa was coming off a Conference USA Title in 2012 as it went 11-3 and beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl.  It had gone a combined 29-11 in three seasons prior to 2013's 3-9 disaster.  There were a lot of signs pointing downward last year, though, as they had just nine returning starters, including two on defense.

I look for Tulsa to to be a much-improved team in 2014 with 15 returning starters for head coach Bill Blankenship.  A whopping 10 of those come on defense, where the Golden Hurricane will be vastly improved after giving up 33.9 points and 430 yards per game last year.  THe offense also figures to take a step forward despite only five starters coming back.  They had averaged at least 33 points per game in three years prior to 2013, where they averaged just 21.1 points.

Sophomore Dane Evans will be the QB after gaining valuable experience there last year.  He has the luxury of welcoming back junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who had 845 receiving yards in 2012 before missing all but two starts last year due to injury.  This is a talented set of skill players led by Garrett.  The defense has 17 of its top 19 tacklers back from last year and a ton of depth heading into 2014.

I was big on Tulane last year, and it delivered by going 7-6 and making it to a bowl game.  However, that team was very fortunate to get bowl eligible because it was nowhere near as good as its record would indicate.  In fact, it only gained 311 yards per game offensively while giving up 351 yards per game on defense.  It was actually outgained by 40 yards per game on the season.

The key to Tulane's season was finishing +11 in turnover differential, while Tulsa went -10 in turnover differential.  I expect some regression to the mean for both teams this year.  Tulane did beat Tulsa 14-7 at home last year despite getting outgained 301-344 for the game.  It forced four turnovers from Tulsa en route to victory.  I look for the Golden Hurricane to have their revenge at home this time around because they are a lot more experienced, while the Green Wave figure to take a step back as soon as the opener.

Tulsa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Tulane, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Before last year's 7-point loss, the Golden Hurricane had won their previous eight meetings with the Green Wave by 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35 and 24 points, respectively.  I look for them to get back to dominating this series in 2014 with a blowout home victory.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.