Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-27-12 | Florida v. Georgia +7 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 89 h 49 m | Show |
20* Gators/Bulldogs SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7
The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now after opening the season 7-0. They were underrated in the first half of the season, but now it's time to switch gears and fade them Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia is undervalued at this point of the year after its 6-1 start. It has not played up to its potential after winning the SEC East last season. The Bulldogs are still at least even with Florida talent-wise, and I believe they put their best foot forward Saturday with the East title at stake. A loss would eliminate Georgia in the title race. The reason Florida is so overvalued here is because it beat South Carolina 44-11 last week at home. That was one of the most misleading scores I've ever seen as it was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Gators were actually outgained 183-191 by the Gamecocks, but South Carolina was -4 in turnovers and set Florida up with several easy scores. The last two meetings in this series were decided by four points or less, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire again. Georgia beat Florida 24-20 last season while outgaining the Gators 354-226. Georgia has a much more potent offense than Florida, and while I'll admit the Gators have the better defense, the gap in talent on that side of the ball isn't that far off. Georgia ranks 18th in the country in total offense (486.9 yards/game) while Florida ranks 101st in total offense (350.4 yards/game). Georgia ranks 47th in total defense (367.4 yards/game), but it will be much improved on this side of the ball as the season goes on with the return of several suspended defensive starters recently. The Gators are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Take Georgia Saturday. |
|||||||
10-27-12 | BYU v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -108 | 87 h 6 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -2.5
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are undervalued at this point in the season due to their slow start. This team is much better than its 3-4 record would indicate, and it certainly cannot afford to lose this contest if it wants to become bowl eligible by season's end. Three of Georgia Tech's losses have come against Virginia Tech and Clemson on the road, and Miami at home. The Yellow Jackets arguably should have won all three of those contests as they blew a 3-point lead over the final minute against the Hokies, a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter against Miami, and a 31-30 fourth quarter lead against Clemson. BYU is coming off a tough 14-17 loss at Notre Dame as it lost in the final seconds to fall to 4-4 on the season. This team simply has not been able to generate enough offense to win games consistently in 2012. It has been held to 24 or less points in five of its last six games, going 2-4 in the process. BYU has a very good defense, but it has been up against some very weak competition all season on the offensive end. Opposing teams that BYU has played have only averaged 22.6 points and 355 total yards/game this season. The Cougars will have their hands full with a Georgia Tech offense that ranks 15th in the country at 497.7 total yards/game. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Independent teams. Take Georgia Tech Saturday. |
|||||||
10-27-12 | Tennessee +14 v. South Carolina | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +14
The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching two touchdowns against the South Carolina Gamecocks Saturday. The Vols are way undervalued due to their 0-4 start in SEC play which couldn't have come against tougher competition. All four of Tennessee's losses in the SEC have come against Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama, which are four teams that all rank within the Top 13 in the AP Poll. It doesn't get a whole lot easier against South Carolina Saturday, but I believe they catch the Gamecocks in a great spot. South Carolina is reeling from two straight losses to LSU and Florida that essentially knocked them out of the national title and SEC East title races. I fully expect the Gamecocks to suffer a hangover from those two defeats and not show up Saturday knowing that their goals have been stripped away from them over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Tennessee will be extra motivated for its first conference victory. It played both Georgia and Mississippi State tough on the road, losing by just 7 points to Georgia and 10 to Mississippi State. It should have no problem staying within two touchdowns Saturday in a game it can win outright. South Carolina simply does not have the offensive firepower it takes to cover this big of a spread against a team that is just as talented. The Gamecocks only won 14-3 in Knoxville last season against a Vols team that was playing without star quarterback Tyler Bray and star wide receiver Justin Hunter, who were both out with injuries. Bray is completing 59.0 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Hunter has caught 39 balls for 567 yards and four scores. Having these two healthy this time around will make a huge difference in the outcome of this rematch. Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. It is winning in this spot by an average of 12.6 points/game. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, and the Vols are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in South Carolina. Roll with Tennessee Saturday. |
|||||||
10-26-12 | Nevada -3 v. Air Force | Top | 31-48 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 37 m | Show |
20* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -3
The Nevada Wolf Pack should be a much heavier favorite Friday against the Air Force Falcons. I'll gladly back them as only a 3-point favorite here. The Falcons are simply overmatched in this one. Nevada is a dynamic offensive team that the Falcons will have a hard time keeping up with on the scoreboard. It is scoring 40.6 points/game while averaging 541.1 total yards/game, ranking 6th in the country in total offense. They beat teams behind a balanced attack that features 272.0 yards on the ground and 269.1 through the air. The Wolf Pack could easily be 8-0 right now, but they are 6-2 due to two losses by exactly one point each. Coming off a 38-39 overtime loss to San Diego State last week, this team will be highly motivated to bounce back with a victory tonight. Nevada is 4-0 on the road this season, outscoring opponents 44.0 to 26.5 in the process. Nevada takes advantage of its red zone opportunities, scoring on 37 of 44 possessions inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Of those 37 scores, a whopping 32 have been touchdowns! Air Force has converted just 21 of 30 trips inside the red zone. Air Force has given up 24 scores on 27 trips by opponents into the red zone, including 19 touchdowns. The Falcons have faced a very soft schedule with poor offensive teams along the way. Still, they are giving up a ridiculous 427.4 yards/game, ranking 83rd in the country in total defense. They are giving up 222 rushing yards/game and 5.4/carry on the ground, while Nevada is yielding a respectable 156 yards/game and 4.3/carry. Air Force is 0-7 ATS after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Chris Ault is 9-1 ATS versus terrible rushing defenses - allowing >=5.25 rushing yards/carry as the coach of Nevada. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Bet Nevada Friday. |
|||||||
10-25-12 | Clemson -11.5 v. Wake Forest | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 7 m | Show | |
15* Clemson/Wake Forest ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson -11.5
Provided Clemson doesn't commit numerous self-inflicted wounds, it should win this game by three-plus touchdowns against overmatched Wake Forest Thursday. The Tigers simply have the edge in talent and speed in this one, and the Demon Deacons aren't going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard. The No. 14 Tigers (6-1, 3-1) are averaging 40.9 points and 492.9 yards per game, and they haven't scored fewer than 37 points since a season-opening 26-19 win over Auburn on Sept. 1. They rank 1st in red zone scoring offense, converting 32 of 33 trips into points, including 23 touchdowns. They are also a surprising 16th in red zone defense, giving up just 18 scores in 26 trips, including a mere 12 touchdowns. Wake Forest is nowhere near as good as its 4-3 record would indicate. Three of those wins have come against Liberty, Army and Virginia. The Demon Deacons rank just 112th in the country in total offense (316.1 yards/game), and they are scoring a mere 22.0 points/game. They have been much better on the other side of the ball, ranking 73rd in total defense (405.0 yards/game). Clemson has won three straight over Wake Forest by a combined score of 99-41. Sure, the Tigers only won 31-28 at home last year, but that final score was very misleading. Clemson outgained Wake 522-317 for the game, but it was -3 in turnovers and allowed a punt return for a touchdown. When teams outgain opponents by more than 200 yards, they usually win by at least two touchdowns. I expect the Tigers to eliminate their self-inflicted wounds this time around. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Demon Deacons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Wake is 1-11 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Clemson is 8-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take Clemson Thursday. |
|||||||
10-23-12 | Arkansas State +4.5 v. Louisiana-Lafayette | Top | 50-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
20* Arkansas State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +4.5
The Arkansas State Red Wolves won the Sun Belt last season with an unbeaten 8-0 record in conference play. They have the talent again in 2012 to repeat as champs, and a win over Louisiana-Lafayette tonight would be a big step in that direction. Arkansas State is off to a 4-3 start this season. Its only losses have come on the road against Oregon and Nebraska out of conference, and Western Kentucky within the conference. The Red Wolves blew a 13-0 halftime lead to the Hilltoppers, who are arguably the best team in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette has played a much softer schedule than Arkansas State, which is a big reason why it is 4-2 right now. Its four wins have come against Lamar, Troy, Florida International and Tulane. Despite playing a weaker schedule than the Arkansas State, the Rajin' Cajuns have posted worse numbers. The Red Wolves rank 35th in the country in total offense (448.7 yards/game) and 52nd in total defense (376.3 yards/game). The Rajin' Cajuns rank 62nd in total offense (404.5 yards/game) and 81st in total defense (422.2 yards/game). As you can see, Lafayette is actually getting outgained on the season. Lafayette lost at North Texas last Tuesday 23-30, while Arkansas State beat South Alabama 36-29 at home last Saturday. That means the Red Wolves have had three extra days to prepare for the Rajin' Cajuns, which is clearly advantage. Also, Lafayette's top two receivers in Harry Peoples and Javone Lawson were knocked out of the North Texas game, and each is questionable to return Tuesday. Arkansas State beat Lafayette 30-21 last year. Quarterback Ryan Aplin had a big day, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score. Aplin has been solid again this season, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,572 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 244 yards and three scores. This play falls into a system that is 69-30 (69.7%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against home favorites (LA LAFAYETTE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. Bet Arkansas State Tuesday. |