15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week.  Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best.  The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games.  They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU.  I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott.  I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.

Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire.  They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs.  Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week.  They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.

Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team.  Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season.  They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages.  Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup.  They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense.  The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5

The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks.  They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs.  They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.

Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals.  They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale.  They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year.  They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one.  They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo.  They could care less about winning this game.  The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.

Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule.  They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th.  Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin.  They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average.  Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5

Texas has all the pressure on them right now.  They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff.  They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now.  They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.

Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12.  They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma.  It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score.  Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade.  Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game.  He is very questionable to play this week.  That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.

Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB.  He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores.  Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF.  They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.

Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road.  There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest.  I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season.  To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.

Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game.  Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5

The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons.  Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic.  I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.

UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB.  He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play.  They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams.  Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.

UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games.  Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents.  So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.

Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas.  That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference.  Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.

Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday.  That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UTSA Friday.

15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9

I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College.  What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster.  It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.

The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games.  They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games.  They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville.  After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.

Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami.  I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week.  So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes.  That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points.  Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game.  The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5

Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention.  They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now.  We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.

Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy.  Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD.  He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago.  And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week.  Temple was competitive in all three games.

Memphis just has a way of playing in close games.  In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury.  It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.

The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful.  They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games.  They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play.  Those are numbers very similar to Temple.  I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week.  They need one more win to get bowl eligible.  That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three.  This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate.  They aren't going to pack it in now.

Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate.  They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule.  They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week.  They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would.  They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years.  They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.

After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year.  They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one.  That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.

Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury.  They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy.  He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries.  He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.

Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful.  Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense.  The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages.  Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12.  Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12.  It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare.  This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.

After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston.  That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12.  They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB.  Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.

Iowa State isn't scared of Texas.  The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year.  Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too.  Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.

What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  This defense gives them a chance in any game.  They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country.  He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week.  Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively.  And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.

Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas.  Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3

The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now.  They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State.  They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.

Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season.  They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play.  The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.

Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers.  The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse.  They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season.  They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD.  He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.

I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season.  Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23.  We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser.  As you can see, I'm still not over it.  But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation.  They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.

Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5

I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons.  The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.

The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State.  But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.

The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week.  They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards.  That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory.  And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.

In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total.  The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense.  It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.

Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers.  They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more.  But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds.  Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score.  They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.

Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season.  He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary.  DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game.  Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders.  We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52

I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for.  Well, here's a good example of that.  Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game.  They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.

Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title.  They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well.  But I prefer the OVER instead.

Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo.  That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech.  The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.

The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games.  They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points.  They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points.  The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.

Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season.  They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home.  The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well.  This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.

The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders.  This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs.  They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.

Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern.  They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB.  So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation.  Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.

Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener.  But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time.  Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it.  Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.

Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively.  They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt.  Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.

Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State.  They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons.  A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7

Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen.  They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least.  Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.

Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game.  They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense.  They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.

West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati.  The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game.  We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.

I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home.  But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma.  West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.

Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach.  After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke.  They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week.  They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan.  They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away.  I don't expect them to show up at all this week.

James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself.  And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss.  Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite.  Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa.  But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers.  They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week.  They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.

Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago.  The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss.  The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns.  They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State.  If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.

Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss.  Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16

This game means nothing to UTSA.  Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters.  The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game.  As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.

UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels.  They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior.  Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.

South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight.  They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them.  The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior.  That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.

South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric.  The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat.  The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play.  They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.

Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games.  The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game.  Bet South Florida Friday.

 20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5

Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now.  They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort.  That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  

The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.

Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued.  The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games.  They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites.  They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites.  They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out.  Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC.  They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season.

Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games.  Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5

The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC.  USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way.

Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12.  Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense.  They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite.

They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender.  They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone.  They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks.  They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good.  To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more.  This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for.  Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103

Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West.  They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season.

San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush.  They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards.  Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards.

That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State.  Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire.  That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run.

Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State.  Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro.  He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.  The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance.

No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%.  I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii.  They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense.  I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans.

Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins.  San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season.  They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn.  I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs.  They are treating this game as their national championship.

Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons.  They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up.  They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer.  This will now be by far their toughest test of the season.

I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia.  That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them.  It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals.  So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one.  Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West.

Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th.  That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule.  That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points.  Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play.

Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning.  They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago.  He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing.  They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks.  Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return.

Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters.  QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground.  He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade.  The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years.

Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game.  Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5

I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for.  There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games.  Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5.  They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season.

Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play.

Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7.  The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers.  Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense.

Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points.  I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State.  They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week.

Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons.  Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5

I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons.  Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week.

They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points.  They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week.

San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate.  They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play.  They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game.  They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade.

Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat.  They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win.  They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too.  This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks.  They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday.

Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games.  The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy.  They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for.  I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case.  It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season.  They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year.  But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention.

The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week.  Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope.  Now I question their motivation the rest of the way.  That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice.

QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it.  He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line.  He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup.

The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley.  There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again.  South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5

What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than.  New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season.  Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season.  New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play.  Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play.  It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers.

WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.  They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season.  Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here.

The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.  Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season.  WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt.

The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week.

Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class.  Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee.  They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot.  I give them zero credit for that victory.

QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense.  I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread.  Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule.  That's a difference of 64 spots.  Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits.  It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14

Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson.  They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend.

I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank.  They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win.  They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them.  Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming.  

Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit.  The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play.  No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56.  The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5

The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West.  They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium.

UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game.  Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home.  While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game.  They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games.

Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game.  They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass.  This is strength on strength here.  Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover.

UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game.  Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for.  They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one.

UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss +10.5

Southern Miss is trending in the right direction late in the season under Will Hall, one of the more underrated head coaches in the country.  Their last two games have been impressive.  They lost 48-38 at Appalachian State as 15-point dogs in a misleading final as they outgained the Mountaineers and racked up 588 total yards in defeat.  Then last week they crushed LA Monroe 24-7 as 3-point favorites and outgained them 448 to 260, or by 188 total yards.

Now the Golden Eagles are catching double-digits against a Louisiana team that is down to 3rd-string QB Chandler Fields.  They lost 37-17 at Arkansas State last week as 7-point favorites and were outgained for a 4th consecutive game.  That loss basically eliminated them from Sun Belt title contention.

The Rajin' Cajuns lost starting QB Ben Wooldridge early in the season.  It was a blessing in disguise as backup Zeon Criss has been much better, completing 66.7% of his passes averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while also rushing for 492 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per attempt.  Chandler Fields is a big downgrade and gives them noting on the ground.  He completed 58.2% of his passes last season and averaged 6.2 per attempt.  There's a reason he was demoted to 3rd string this season.

Southern Miss upset Louisiana 39-24 as 2.5-point home dogs last year.  The Golden Eagles are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 road games after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more.  Louisiana is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 34 or more points per game.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  Bet Southern Miss Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire.

Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites.  They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game.  They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone.  They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too.

Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division.  They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton.

I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out.  That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo.  They have three extra days than the Rockets do.  The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games.  I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive.

Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread.

Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points.  Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss.  Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game.  Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3

Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan.  They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st.  I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home.  That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win.

The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites.  They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch.

Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now.  They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity.

Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game.  They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense.  Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well.  The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry.  They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt.

WMU has played six road games and only three home games.  They are 2-1 at home this season.  CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home.  The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table.  It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now.  They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night.  We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright.

Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did.  They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid.  They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season.  And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards.

NC State has played very well at home of late.  They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week.  They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here.  Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas.  NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites.  They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender.

Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3

USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs.

We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford.  But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior.  No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week.  Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night.

Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup.  The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game.

Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here.  USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense.  The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively.  Bet Washington Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma.  They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road.  The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now.

This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night.  The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season.  They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3.  They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting.  They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas.  They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997.  It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984.  It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season.  This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks.

The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas.  They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion.  Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper.  The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers.

There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses.  Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't.  The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed.  Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games.  They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close.  They allowed 661 yards to Texas.  And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys.

Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008.  Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5

Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season.  But these records are now created equal.  Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5.  When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason.

Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now.  They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did.  They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively.  I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams.

Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team.  The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.

San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game.  The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade.  They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season.  Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021.  The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team.  They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score.  They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now.  They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards.

They certainly won't let down against Illinois here.  Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now.

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road.  Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season.  That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17.

The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game.  That team is going to be Minnesota.  The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game.  Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game.  The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season.  Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16

The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division.  Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs.  The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs.

The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week.  That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs.  We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs.  They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down.

That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season.  They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17.  They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition.  Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them.

Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season.  They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing.  They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road.  They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now.  

The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS.  This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target.  Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD.

Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia.  The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins.  Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10

Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  

The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.  And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards.  That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point.  Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be.  Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame.  Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well.  This one will go down to the wire.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars.  And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record.

But this is a play against Utah as much as anything.  The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles.  Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week.  That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained.

Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much.  Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards.  Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards.  UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards.  Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play.  Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record.

Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games.  They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon.  This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3

Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today.

Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention.  They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week.  And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either.  After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games.  They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season.

Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.  They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest.  Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury.  Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country.

Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach.  Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech.  The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats.  They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season.

Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility.  The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field.  He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry.  He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles.  To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles.  They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards.  That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC.

Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday.

20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.  And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites.

The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins.

South Alabama is down this season.  They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites.  QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week.  Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game.  He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games.  South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt.  The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Troy Thursday.

20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3

Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team.  We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock.

Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards.  The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards.  They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games.

But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence.  Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong.  They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center.

TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State.  They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week.  Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good.  He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry.

This TCU defense isn't very good.  They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense.  They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244.

The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship.  They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation.  After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss.  TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5

Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27.  That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami.

Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green.  The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game.

Ball State has some really concerning losses of late.  They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern.  They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country.  They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country.  Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country.

The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home.  Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game.  Bet Bowling Green Wednesday.

15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo.

Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late.  The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC.

Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season.  They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs.  Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf.  Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5

UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West.  There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State.  I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here.

Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback.  Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week.  Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here.

Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less.  The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada.  They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV.  QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype.  He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry.

UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time.  This one will be decided by one score either way, too.

Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far.  I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle.  Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in.  The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks.

This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.  Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so.  Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages.  I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here.

Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss.  Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5

James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program.  That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score.  Another win came by 11 points.  Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record.  The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season.  The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs.

Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week.  The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend.

Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison.  The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better.  Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.

Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe.  They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe.  This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record.

Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play.  Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th.

Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses.  Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more.

Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards.  The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week.  

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5

My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.

These are two of the worst defenses in the country.  Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed.  Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game.

I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense.  When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued.

Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss.  The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out.  This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check.

Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total.  This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games.  Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense.

Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58.  Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points.  The books have once again set this total too low.

Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks.  Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans.  But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers.  Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense.  Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much.

After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame.   He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC.  Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt.

While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent.  Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville.  Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards.  The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week.

The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games.  Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest.  He has given this previously dead offense some new life.

Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play.  Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run.  They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19

Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate.  The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland.  They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers.

With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here.  At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year.

Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites.  They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game.  And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers.  They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech.

Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score.  Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4

I love the spot for Louisville this week.  They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye.  You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot.

Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week.  They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt.  It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter.

Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0.  They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title.  The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.

The spot is much worse for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score.  They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles.  QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late.  He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one.

Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites.  The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5

The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less.  It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most.

North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road.  They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout.

That gives these teams a common opponent.  Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards.  And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road.

I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB.  That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards.  But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference.

North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs.  North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss.  North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game.  Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here.

Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win.  North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him.  The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.

Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated.  They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards.  They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough.  Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for.

Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls.  FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida.  Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA.  The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall.  It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense.  It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Charlotte Friday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2.5

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Virginia Tech is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers.  Virginia Tech needs to be more than a 2.5-point home favorite over Syracuse Thursday night.

Virginia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  And last time out the Hokies crushed Wake Forest 30-13 and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina and 41-3 at Florida State.  The Orange were outscored a combined 112-24 in those three defeats.  That 38-point loss at Florida State gives these teams a recent common opponent to compare where they're at right now.  The Orange were outgained 537 to 261, or by 276 total yards while VT only lost by 22 and were outgained by 139 yards.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 58% of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 344 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Dino Babers is 1-9 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of consecutive games as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

20* Jacksonville State/FIU C-USA No-Brainer on Florida International +8

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are in their first season as an FBS team making the move from the FCS.  They just accomplished a huge feat getting to 6-2 with a 20-17 upset win over Western Kentucky last week to get bowl eligible.  Now, I think the Gamecocks are in a huge letdown spot after accomplishing that feat and will be flat as a pancake Wednesday night against Florida International.

This is a very tough spot for the Gamecocks because of the letdown spot, plus the fact that they are a very tired team playing their 6th game in 33 days.  They have had a ton of midweek games this year to throw off their schedule, especially of late.  Meanwhile, Florida International will be playing just its 4th game in 32 days, a huge rest advantage for the home team.

Florida International sits at 4-4 this season and in need of a win here if they want to get bowl eligible themselves.  The Panthers have the big motivational and rest advantages that justify a play on them catching 8 points at home here.  Bet Florida International Wednesday.

15* New Mexico State/LA Tech C-USA ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico State +2.5

New Mexico State has aspirations of getting bowl eligible with a win tonight.  They also are very much alive in the Conference USA title race.  They have a bye one deck, so they will be 'all in' to get this win tonight and get bowl eligible.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,801 yards with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Pavia also leads the Aggies in rushing with 525 yards and 4 TD on 5.8 per carry.  From October-on last year, he had the best QBR of any QB in the country.  He is doing the same from October-on this year.

This New Mexico State defense is also underrated.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being to Liberty, which is 7-0 and the best team in the conference.  I think they can shut town this LA Tech offense that has put up 24 or fewer points in five of eight games this year.  They topped that number against Northwestern State, North Texas and WKU only because of garbage time after falling behind 35-7 early.

LA Tech has allowed 28 or more points in four of their last five games.  The Bulldogs have a terrible defense and have gone 1-4 in their last five games with their lone win against a broken UTEP team that New Mexico State just blasted 28-7 last week.  LA Tech was actually outgained by UTEP in that contest.

The Aggies are going to have a big advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 202 yards per game and 6.1 per carry as a team.  LA Tech allows 199 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games.  The Aggies are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Jerry Kill is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a losing record as a head coach.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +28.5

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington.  They are come off their 'game of the year' beating Oregon 36-33 after the Ducks missed a last-second field goal.  They gave up 541 total yards to the Ducks and were outgained by 126 yards and arguably should have lost, but the ball bounced their way.

Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. was noticeably injured coming down the stretch of that game but he gutted it out.  There's a chance he doesn't play this week, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  The coaching staff will be cautious with him either way, and I don't think the Huskies have any incentive to get margin here.  They will be more than happy just getting out with a victory by any margin.

Now they must face an Arizona State team playing their best football of the season and fresh off a bye.  This is the 'game of the year' for the Sun Devils with a chance to knock off an unbeaten.  I've been very impressed with them in recent weeks against quality competition.

Arizona State has gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games, and will be champing at the bit to get a win coming off their bye.

Arizona State pulled the 45-38 upset as 13.5-point home dogs against Washington last season.  The Sun Devils are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, also pulling an outright upset as 17.5-point dogs.  Arizona State is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Washington.  Washington hasn't beaten Arizona State by more than 26 points in any the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Sun Devils pertaining to this 28.5-point spread.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +6.5

I love the spot for Old Dominion this week.  They are coming off a bye and I have been very impressed with what they have been able to do in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.  They have been an underdog in all five games and have managed to win two of them outright.

Old Dominion is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs.  That Louisiana team looks like a Sun Belt title contender this season.  The Monarchs only lost 24-27 as 14-point home underdogs to Wake Forest and 35-41 as 14.5-point road dogs at Marshall.  Then they beat Southern Miss 17-13 as 3-point road dogs going into the bye.

Appalachian State has been very disappointing this season.  The Mountaineers are 3-3 with their three wins coming against Gardner Webb, a rebuilding East Carolina (1-5) team, and a 41-40 win as 13.5-point favorites over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) team.   They also lost at Wyoming and were upset at home by Coastal Carolina coming into this one.

This Appalachian State defense just cannot be trusted to get margin.  The Mountaineers allow 30.2 points per game, 396.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Compared that to Old Dominion, which allows just 5.1 yards per play, and it's easy to see which team has the better defense.  The Monarchs are holding opponents 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages, while the Mountaineers are allowing 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents typically average.  

Appalachian State has the better offense, but not by much as they average 6.1 yards per play while Old Dominion averages 5.9 yards per play.  Old Dominion is outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play while Appalachian State is dead even in net yards per play (6.1 to 6.1).  Plus, Old Dominion has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Appalachian State is 3-12 ATS in it last 15 games as a favorite.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Appalachian State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after going under the total in its previous game.  Shawn Clark is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Appalachian State.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

25* Mountain West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/UNLV OVER 61.5

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in UNLV's last four games overall with 77, 73, 64 and 72 combined points.  They have an elite offense that scores 37.7 points per game while averaging 6.1 yards per play and a soft defense that allows 6.2 yards per play despite facing a very soft schedule up to this point.

Colorado State is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-0 in Colorado State's five games this season with 74, 78, 54, 68 and 61 combined points.  The 54-point game was a bad weather game at Middle Tennessee.  The Rams have an improved offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game, and a terrible defense that allows 38.0 points per game, 485 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  This game will be played at a fast pace with Colorado State ranking 6th in the country in tempo at 21.2 seconds between plays and UNLV at 60th at 25.7 seconds.  Plus, UNLV has been protecting a lot of leads late and going a little slower in the second half.  They won't be able to do that against Colorado State and will have the pedal to the metal for four quarters.

UNLV is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2

Both Toledo (6-1) and Miami Ohio (6-1) are in line to win the MAC this season.  This game has massive MAC title implications, and I'll gladly side with the home underdog here as I believe Miami is the better, more complete team.

Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall despite winning all five outright.  The Rockets have been fortunate in close games, beating San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites and Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites.  They also beat awful Western Michigan and UMass but failed to cover in both.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is 6-0 ATS & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since losing at Miami in the opener.  That includes an upset road win at Cincinnati as 14-point dogs, and the Redhawks have been handling their business in all other game with the other five wins all coming by 13 points or more.

Miami has the better defense allowing 19.1 points per game, 333 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Toledo has been slightly worse in all three categories.  But I feel the main difference is I trust QB Brett Gabbert over Toledo's Daquan Finn.  Gabbert has quietly been the best QB in the MAC this season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,455 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  Finn averages 7.9 per attempt with a 12-to-5 ratio.

It is expected to be windy at Miami on Saturday.  I trust Miami Ohio's run defense more than that of Toledo as well.  Miami allows 133 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry, while Toledo allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  All of these are slight edges in Miami's favor, but they add up when you're talking about getting the home team as an underdog.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +7

I didn't expect to be betting on Kent State at any point this season.  But here we are.  I'm big on fading Buffalo because the Bulls are one of the very worst teams in all of college football.  And they have no business being favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, not even Kent State.

Buffalo is 2-5 this season with some awful numbers.  The Bulls are averaging 323 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play and allowing 423 yards per game and 6.4 per play, getting outgained by 100 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.

Kent State has very similar numbers to Buffalo and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Golden Flashes have already faced UCF, Arkansas, Fresno and Ohio on the road.  Kent State is getting outgained by 108 yards per game and by 1.6 yards per play.  These are much closer to even teams than this line would indicate.

Buffalo just lost 24-14 at home to Bowling Green last week and I was on Bowling Green in that game.  It should have been an even bigger blowout as the Bulls turned it over 5 times and were outgained by 62 yards.  

Kent State lost 28-14 at Eastern Michigan last week in a game they should have won.  They opened the game with an onside kick that was returned for a TD.  Kent State outgained Eastern MIchigan 343 to 218, or by 125 total yards, yet lost by 14.  It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Golden Flashes off that misleading defeat.

There's a 63% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds forecast, meaning this game is likely to be played on the ground.  That benefits Kent State.  Despite the tough schedule, Kent State only allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Buffalo allows 197 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.

Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a conference loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The weather forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER between Wisconsin and Illinois Saturday.  There are expected to be 22 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium with gusts upwards of 30.  That's going to force both of these teams to keep the ball on the ground, shortening the game and helping us cash this UNDER 42.5 ticket.

Wisconsin is definitely going to want to keep the ball on the ground more than normal after losing starting QB Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand suffered in the 15-6 loss to Iowa last week.  That's a massive blow for this Wisconsin offense as Mordecai was completing 63.7% of his passes for 1,127 yards on the season.  Backup Braedyn Locke is a big downgrade, completing 51.6% of his 31 passes this season while averaging 4.2 per attempt.

Both teams have good defenses with Wisconsin allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Illinois is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play, so their defense have been better than the scoring numbers show.  The beat Maryland outright last week while holding that high-octane Terrapins offense to 24 points.

Both teams are good against the run as Illinois allows 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.9 per rush, holding them 0.6 yards per rush below their season averages.  Wisconsin allows just 3.9 yards per rush even after allowing an 82-yard TD run to Iowa last week.

Illinois is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +4

The Iowa Hawkeyes have nine lives this season with their pitiful offense.  They are 6-1 this season in spite of an offense that averages 20.9 points per game, 438.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  I'm confident the Hawkeyes come back down to reality this week.

It's a terrible spot for Iowa, which is come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week to put them in the driver's seat for winning the Big Ten West.  That makes this a letdown spot, plus the Hawkeyes are a tired, banged up team playing for an 8th consecutive week.  

The Hawkeyes were already without their best weapon in TE Luke Lachey and QB Cade McNamara.  Then they lost their next-best weapon in TE Erick Ali to a season-ending torn ACL against Wisconsin.  They just have no playmakers on offense, and backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious, completing 38.6% (27-of-70) of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in rested and ready to go off a bye week.  There's a good chance the Golden Gophers get some key players back on offense following the bye at receiver.  The Gophers are primed for one of their best efforts of the season, and you can bet PJ Fleck and company are putting a lot into this game considering Fleck has never beaten Iowa.

The fact that Fleck has never beaten Iowa is more of a fluke than anything because the Hawkeyes keep escaping with victories from the jaws of defeat against him.  Indeed, Iowa has an eight-game winning streak against Minnesota, but six of those wins came by 7 points or less.  Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite getting outgained 399 to 280, or by 119 yards.  The year prior, they won 27-22 despite getting outgained 409 to 277, or by 132 total yards.  Iowa has had nine lives against Minnesota, too.  But the streak ends this year given the terrible spot for Iowa and the great one for Minnesota.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 90-45 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois UNDER 46

This play is largely due to the weather but also because both teams have very good defenses and both run slow-tempo offenses.  There are expected to be 20 MPH crosswinds at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois on Saturday afternoon.  Heavy winds affect scoring more than anything because it makes it much more difficult to pass than it does in rain and snow.

Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in the country.  Out of 133 teams, the Eagles rank 122nd in scoring at 19.0 points per game, 132nd in total offense at 253.1 yards per game and 130th at 4.3 yards per play.  This despite facing the 2nd-easiest schedule in the entire country.  Simply put, this Eastern Michigan offense is atrocious.

With those offensive numbers, it's amazing the Eagles have managed to win four games.  They have done so due to good luck plus a pretty good defense that is only allowing 19.4 points per game.  They'll be up against a Northern Illinois offense that averages 24.9 points per game and is far from a juggernaut, averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play as well.

But Northern Illinois has a very good defense as well allowing just 22.4 points per game, 321 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They rank 23rd in total defense and 27th in yards per play.  I don't expect them to allow much at all to Eastern Michigan in this one.  They held Akron to 14 points and Ohio to 13 points in their last two games coming in.

As I stated at the beginning, both offenses are in no hurry.  Eastern Michigan ranks 109th in the country averaging 28.4 seconds in between plays.  Northern Illinois ranks 104th averaging 27.9 seconds in between plays.

Eastern Michigan is 5-2 UNDER on the season.  Five of Eastern Michigan's last six games have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  Four of Northern Illinois' last six games have seen 46 or fewer combined points, including 36 or fewer three times.  The MAC is loaded with terrible offenses in general, and there has been some bad weather already, which is normal for the Ohio Valley.  The winds have just been stronger than normal this season, and we'll take advantage by backing this MAC UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +7.5

In this battle between two of the worst teams in college football, I'll side with the road team catching more than a touchdown.  I honestly think Charlotte is the better team in this one, and East Carolina (1-5) has zero home-field advantage this season.  It's a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it has shown.

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  The 49ers are just 1-5 this season as well, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.  They are now 3-0 ATS on the road this season and now take a step down in class here against ECU.

SMU is a common opponent, and ECU just lost 31-10 at home to SMU as 11-point dogs.  Charlotte was only outgained by 32 yards by SMU on the road while ECU was outgained by 44 yards by SMU at home.  ECU also lost 31-13 to Marshall at home earlier this season and is 1-2 at home with its lone win coming against FCS Gardner Webb.

This is a very poor ECU offense that is averaging 19.2 points per game, 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season.  They are going to struggle to get margin with this putrid offense.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds which is going to keep scoring suppressed as well.  Charlotte relies more on the run than ECU does, so the wind will affect ECU's passing game more.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Rice/Tulsa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57

Rice is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 84, 66, 71 and 69 combined points in the four overs.  The lone under was a bad weather game against East Carolina, which has no offense.  The weather conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Tulsa Thursday night with temps in the 70's, no rain and single-digit winds.

Rice is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season averaging 32.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  A big reason for their success is transfer QB JT Daniels, who is thriving in this offense.  He his completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,831 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is being forced to try and win shootouts due to a poor Rice defense that allows 30.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.

Tulsa has played in a pair of shootouts in its last two home games.  They beat Temple 48-26 for 74 combined points and lost 66-17 to Oklahoma for 83 combined points.  The Golden Hurricane have ramped up their offense in recent weeks and hung 48 points and 533 total yards on Temple.

Cardell Williams is a great dual-threat QB for the Golden Hurricane.  He is completing 60.8% of his passes for 955 yards with an 8-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 110 yards and three scores.  He'll be facing a very poor Rice pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt.

Tulsa's defense leaves a lot to be desired as well.  The Golden Hurricane allow 29.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They have been very poor against the pass, allowing 66.2% completions, 270 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt.  Both quarterbacks should thrive against these two pass defenses.

Rice is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games overall.  Rice is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a non-conference game.  Kevin Wilson is 29-13 OVER in home games as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* New Mexico State/UTEP ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New Mexico State -3

New Mexico State has elite numbers this season for a 4-3 team.  The Aggies average 7.7 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to UTEP (2-5), which averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and 6.1 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see the Aggies are the superior team here.

Diego Paiva is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country for New Mexico State.  He is a dual-threat who is completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards while averaging 9.8 per attempt with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also leads the team in rushing with 429 yards on 5.6 per carry and two touchdowns.

UTEP is down to fourth-string QB Cade McConnell due to injuries and poor play.  He is getting a lot of love for torching Florida International last week, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  He completed 11-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns.  But he did all of his damage in the 1st quarter of that game as the Miners jumped out to a 21-0 lead, then got outscored 14-6 in the final three quarters.  

That first quarter was an aberration, and McConnell will come back down to reality here against a much better opponent in New Mexico State.  This is a putrid UTEP offense that averages 17.7 points per game on the season.  The offense is averaging 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents allow on average, and their defense is allowing 0.5 yards per play more than their opponents average on offense.  They lost 24-10 to LA Tech in their last home game, and LA Tech is one of the worst teams in the country.  Their two wins came against FIU and FCS Incarnate Word.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Dana Dimel is 4-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as a head coach.  UTEP is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 home games after losing four of its last five games.  Jerry Kill is 6-0 ATS after winning two of their last three games as the coach of the Aggies.  Bet New Mexico State Wednesday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UAB +10

Trent Dilfer is quietly doing a great job at UAB.  The Blazers have faced a brutal schedule and are 2-4 this season despite being underdogs in four of six games.  They beat North Carolina A&T to open the season 35-6, were competitive in a 35-49 loss at Georgia Southern, and lost by 20 at home to Louisiana as 2-point favorites in their first three games to open the season.  Those latter two teams are among the favorites to win the Sun Belt.

UAB is 3-0 ATS since with three straight impressive performances.  The Blazers only lost by 28 at Georgia as 40-point dogs, lost by 12 at Tulane as 21.5-point dogs, and crushed South Florida by 21 as 3.5-point dogs.  The offense is clicking with 346 total yards on Georgia, 434 total yards on Tulane and 608 total yards on South Florida.

UTSA is getting too much respect for what they have done in the past.  The Roadrunners are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season as a result.  They lost at Houston, only beat Texas State by 7 as 14-point home favorites, were upset by Army by 8 as 7-point home favorites and were blasted by 31 at Tennessee as 24-point dogs.  Even their lone cover last week wasn't impressive as they beat Temple 49-34 as 14-point favorites.  That's an awful Temple team that previously lost by 22 to Tulsa, by 34 to Miami, by 29 to Rutgers and barely beat lowly Akron by 3.

UAB has passed for at least 250 yards in every game this season.  Well, UTSA just gave up 472 passing yards to Temple last week.  UAB is never going to be out of this game due to a quick-strike offense that is averaging 31.8 points pe game, 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  UTSA is averaging 25.2 points per game, 393 yards per game and 5.4 per play to compare against a softer schedule.  UTSA does have the better defense, but it doesn't warrant them being double-digit favorites.

UTSA has won the conference in consecutive seasons and a big reason why was beating UAB in a pair of close games.  They won 34-31 in 2021 as 3.5-point favorites and 44-38 (OT) in 2022 as 2.5-point favorites.  You know the Blazers want revenge from those two losses, especially last year.  UAB is still 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings not once losing by more than 6 points.  Given the head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Blazers in this one.

UTSA is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit road win.  The Roadrunners are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a two-game road trip.  UTSA is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet UAB Saturday.

15* Missouri/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR Kentucky -2.5

Both Missouri and Kentucky are 5-1 this season and have been impressive.  However, I think this is a good time to 'buy low' on Kentucky after getting embarrassed by Georgia 51-13 on the road last week.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri after they should have had four consecutive covers, but blew it late against LSU last week.

Missouri led LSU 39-35 with less than three minutes left.  They gave up a touchdown and then an interception return TD in the final seconds to lose 49-39.  I think the Tigers will be deflated having their perfect season come to an end in that kind of fashion.  They are also a tired team after playing in that shootout, and now must travel on the road to a tough place to play in Kentucky.

The forecast is going to help Kentucky in this one.  There is a 62% chance of rain with 19 MPH winds projected Saturday.  Kentucky is the better running team and the better team at stopping the run, while Missouri relies more on moving the football through the air to score points.  Missouri only averages 4.3 yards per carry on offense and allows 3.4 per carry on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.9 per carry on the ground.  Kentucky averages 5.8 yards per carry and allows 3.1 per carry, outgaining opponents by 2.7 per carry.  That's a huge discrepancy.

Missouri has only played one true road game this season and that came at Vanderbilt, which is 0-7 ATS this season and has zero home-field advantage.  This will be their stiffest road test of the season by far.  Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Missouri.  Kentucky is 7-1 SU in its last eight meetings with Missouri overall.  The Wildcats' dominance of the Tigers continues in 2023.  

Plays on home favorites (Kentucky) - after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last three games, a top-level team winning more than 80% of their games when playing against a team with a winning record are 30-5 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5

The weather forecast is going to favor Notre Dame quite a bit in this game.  Temps will be in the 40's with a 90% chance of rain and 21 MPH crosswinds at Notre Dame Stadium Saturday night.  That's not ideal for a fair weather team like USC coming over from California and not used to the conditions.  There's been videos of coaches spraying players with water trying to catch footballs to try and acclimate to it.

Notre Dame is the more physical team with the better running game and run defense.  The Fighting Irish average 171 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry on offense and allow 133 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on defense.  USC averages 168 rushing yards per game on offense and allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry on defense.

Notre Dame has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, while USC has played one of the easiest.  Notre Dame has faced Ohio State, Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks.  I think they ran out of gas against Louisville in their upset loss, but knowing they have a bye on deck and having their biggest rivals coming to town will allow them to play with max effort this week.

USC has played San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona.  The Trojans have struggled the last three weeks beating Arizona State by 14 as 34.5-point favorites, Colorado by 7 as 22.5-point favorites and Arizona by 2 in OT as 21.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by a combined 55.5 points the last three weeks.  I question how much they have left in the tank after needing OT to beat Arizona.

USC was outgained by Colorado and gave up 564 total yards to the Buffaloes.  USC was outgained by 141 yards by Arizona and gave up 506 total yards to the Wildcats.  After escaping with wins against both those mediocre Pac-12 teams, the Trojans' luck runs out this week.  They gave up 203 rushing yards to Arizona and 193 rushing yards to Colorado, two teams that had previously struggle to run the football.  They also gave up 198 rushing yards to San Jose State and 209 rushing yards to Stanford.  Notre Dame is going to have a monster game on the ground against this soft USC defense.

I think this is a good 'buy low' spot on Notre Dame after giving the game away last week against Louisville by committing five turnovers.  It was an aberration as the Fighting Irish had only committed two turnovers total in the six games prior.  Sam Hartman was prone to big turnover games from time to time at Wake Forest, and he got his out of the way on the road at Louisville.  Hartman and company will be highly motivated to make amends here at home against USC.

USC is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games following two consecutive wins as favorites where they failed to cover the spread.  Lincoln Riley is 4-15 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games as a head coach.  Since 2015, there have been 14 teams at 6-0 or better listed as underdogs to a two-loss team.  11 of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah.

This is a big step up in class for the Trojans this week and a test I expect them to fail given the strength of schedule discrepancy and the forecast.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +11.5

The LSU Tigers cannot possibly have much left in the tank.  They will be playing for their 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet, especially of late.  Three weeks ago they beat Arkansas 34-31, two weeks ago they lost at Ole Miss 55-49 and last week they needed a last-second comeback to beat Missouri 49-39 on the road only after a defensive touchdown in the final seconds in what was a misleading score.

I expect LSU to be flat as a pancake hosting Auburn this week.  Meanwhile, Auburn is coming off a bye week after giving two-time defending national champion Georgia all they could handle two weeks ago, losing 27-20 as 14-point home dogs.  First-year head coach Hugh Freeze is one of the most profitable head coaches to back in the entire country.  Teams benefit the most from bye weeks with first-year head coaches due to the new schemes, and Auburn will have a tremendous game plan for LSU this week.

The game plan should be to run the football on this soft, tired LSU defense.  Auburn rushed for 219 yards on Georgia two weeks ago which is no small feat.  They rush for 204 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season.  LSU allows 163 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season, which is absolutely horrible for a team that recruits as well as LSU.  Auburn also has an underrated defense that is holding opponents 11.4 points per game below their season averages.  They allow 18.2 points per game, 323 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  LSU allows 32.3 points per game, 446 yards per game and 6.7 per play.

Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last six meetings with LSU, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  LSU hasn't beaten Auburn by more than 4 points in any of those seven meetings.  Given the terrible spot for the home team and the big rest advantage for the road team, there's no way LSU should be laying double-digits here.  Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +7.5

Louisville is in a terrible spot Saturday.  They are coming off the big 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as 6.5-point underdogs last week to remain unbeaten.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals as they will be flat as a pancake this week following one of the biggest wins in program history.

This is the classic Pat Narduzzi spot.  He has a reeling Pitt team that has gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  The Panthers are coming off a bye week, and I trust Narduzzi to come up with the proper game plan to possibly pull off this upset.  It's circle the wagons time, and I'm expecting the biggest effort of the season from Pitt this week with Louisville coming to town.

Unfortunately for Narduzzi, he got burned in the transfer portal trusting Phil Jurkovec to be a capable QB.  He has been hugely disappointing just as he was at Boston College prior.  He is completing just 50.9% of his passes on the season.  The Panthers are going with a new quarterback this week, and he'll have the benefit of two weeks of practice preparing to be the starter.  It cannot possibly go worse than it has with Jurkovec thus far.

This is a night game at Pitt at 6:30 EST Saturday night so the atmosphere will be electric.  The forecast is also going to help the underdog with a 96% chance of rain and 12 MPH winds.  Louisville's passing game would have the advantage in perfect conditions, but this game is likely to be played more on the ground because of the forecast.  That will shorten the game and help the underdog.  Pitt only allows 130 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season.

Narduzzi is 16-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game as the coach of Pitt.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points ( Pitt) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 48-18 (72.7%) ATS overt he last 10 seasons.  

Pat Narduzzi has faced a team 6-0 or better three times in the regular season, and twice the Panthers won outright.  They won 43-42 as 21-point dogs over Clemson when they were 5-4 and Clemson was 9-0 in 2016.  They won 24-14 as 12-point dogs over 10-0 Miami when they were 4-7 in 2017.  And in 2018, the 3-3 Panthers nearly beat 6-0 Notre Dame in a 19-14 loss as 21-point dogs.

Since 1978, 49 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame.  Only 12 of the 49 covered the spread and nine of those 12 were double-digit favorites.  15 of the 49 lost outright, and 11 of the last 13 have failed to cover the spread since 2011.  I would not be surprised at all so see the Panthers pull off the upset here coming off the bye and with the Cardinals in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -10

Kirk Ferentz has worked wonders getting this Iowa team to 5-1 in spite of an offense that is averaging more punt yards this season than total yards.  His luck ran out against Penn State in a 31-0 road loss for their lone defeat, and it will run out on the road against similar caliber Wisconsin team again this week.

Iowa is only averaging 250 yards pre game and 4.6 yards per play on offense this season.  Backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious taking over for an injured Cade McNamara.  Hill has completed 21-of-56 (37.5%) passes while averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  The Hawkeyes are without their top target in TE Lachey and have other significant injuries at WR and RB.  Their offensive line is getting no push and is one of the worst offensive lines of the Ferentz era.

Wisconsin has its best offense in years this season with some great balance averaging 205 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry and 210 passing yards per game.  The Badgers are averaging 31.4 points per game against teams that only allow 24.4 points per game.  They have yet another elite defense this season allowing just 18.4 points per game, holding opponents to nearly 13 points per game below their season averages.  They only allow 108 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry as well.

Iowa only averages 121 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry while allowing 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The Hawkeyes just aren't as strong at the line of scrimmage as they have been in the past, and that's going to be a problem here.  Conditions are going to be terrible with an 85% chance of rain and 28 MPH winds.  This game will be won at the line of scrimmage, and I'll side with Badgers as a result.  I think they can get 20-plus points in this one, and I would be shocked if Iowa's putrid offense got to 10.  Wisconsin held Iowa to 146 total yards last year and 156 total yards in 2021.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Oregon/Washington ABC No-Brainer on Washington ML -137

I like both of these teams a ton and think both are national title contenders.  But Washington gets the good fortune of getting this game at home, and the Huskies have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  It's going to be a raucous atmosphere like nothing Oregon has seen before.

Oregon has played two true road games this season and one was at Stanford, which doesn't count.  The other was a 38-30 win at Texas Tech and a misleading final.  They trailed 27-18 going into the 4th quarter.  They also got a 45-yard INT return TD with 35 seconds left as Texas Tech was trying to get in range for the game-winning field goal.  The Ducks were +4 in turnovers in that game as well.  That's a Texas Tech team that has been far from impressive with losses to Wyoming and West Virginia this season.

Washington could not have been more impressive in its three home games this season.  The Huskies won 56-19 as 14.5-point favorites against Boise State, 43-10 as 34-point favorites against Tulsa and 59-32 as 20-point favorites against California.  They also won 41-7 at Michigan State and 31-24 at Arizona while outgaining the Wildcats by 132 yards.  That's a pesky Arizona team that also took USC to OT last week.

Oregon has faced a much softer schedule than Washington, and that strength of schedule discrepancy matters a lot.  Oregon wants to run the football, and Washington is great at stopping the run, allowing 122 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Bo Nix is going to have to try and win this game with his arm, and he has huge home/road splits in his career.  

I'll gladly side with Michael Penix Jr. over Nix in this one.  Penix is the Heisman Trophy favorite right now leading a Washington offense that averages 46.0 points per game, 570 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play.  He is completing 74.7% of his passes for 1,999 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio this season.  He led the Huskies to a 37-34 upset win at Oregon last year while throwing for 408 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this Ducks defense.

Oregon is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better.  Plays on home teams (Washington) - after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in three consecutive games, in a game between two teams with eight or more defensive starters back are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1992.  

Plays on home favorites on the money line (Washington) - following a win in a game involving two top-level teams that win greater than 80% of their games on the season are 53-6 (89.8%, +41.7 Units) over the last five seasons.  

In the last 19 meetings between Oregon and Washington, the favorite is 16-3 SU & 16-3 ATS.  The favorite is also 18-4 SU & 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Ducks are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  They were 6-point dogs on average and lost by an average of 24.8 points per game in these five games.  Bet Washington on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Troy -4.5

Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS and should have covered in all three games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Eagles 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites last week and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.

This Troy offense remains elite, and this Troy defense is getting back to playing like it did a year ago.  The Trojans have been real stout against the run, which is the key matchup here against Army's triple-option.  Troy only allows 88 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Army averages 201 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  

That's actually pretty disappointing for Army considering their opponents average giving up 5.0 per carry, so they are not running it with nearly as much success as they have in year's past.  A big reason is because they are trying to pass the ball more this season, and while they have had more success it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column.  

Army is just 2-3 this season beating Delaware State and a UTSA team that was playing with a backup QB.  They lost 17-13 to LA-Monroe, which looks real bad after LA-Monroe lost 55-7 to South Alabama last week, a team of Troy's caliber.  They lost 29-16 at Syracuse which was just blasted 40-7 by North Carolina.  And last week they lost 27-24 at home to Boston College which was blasted 56-28 by Louisville.  They also lost in the final seconds giving up a TD to BC, and I could see a hangover effect from that defeat.

Troy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Bowling Green +4.5

Buffalo is one of the worst teams in college football and could easily be 0-6.  The Bulls opened 0-4 with a 21-point loss at Wisconsin, an upset loss to Fordham as 22.5-point favorites, a blowout home loss to Liberty by 28 as 3-point dogs and a 7-point loss at Louisiana as 10.5-point dogs.  They were down 21 to Louisiana with five minutes left but tacked on two meaningless touchdowns in a misleading final.

Buffalo then never led until OT against Akron in a 13-10 win only after Akron's starting QB got hurt.  And last week's 37-13 home win over Central Michigan was very misleading.  They were outgained by Central Michigan but were +4 in turnovers, including two defensive touchdowns.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulls now after that misleading 'blowout' win.

Bowling Green is also 2-4 this season but has been much more impressive.  They only lost by 10 at Liberty despite being -4 in turnovers, giving these teams a common opponent.  Buffalo lost by 28 to Liberty and was dominated in the box score, too.  Bowling Green only lost by 25 to Michigan as 41-point dogs.  The Falcons upset Georgia Tech 38-27 as 21-point road dogs two weeks ago before naturally having a letdown in a 27-0 loss at Miami Ohio last week.  It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

Bowling Green has played a much tougher schedule than Buffalo this season.  That's significant because Bowling Green is only getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play, while Buffalo is getting outgained by 1.8 yards per play this season.  Bowling Green is the better team and should not be underdogs here.

Bowling Green is 37-18 ATS in its last 55 road games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +42.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Penn State after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in five games to start the season.  Penn State needed to punch in late scores against West Virginia and Northwestern when they could have taken knees to cover those two spreads.  And they had no business covering at Illinois in a 30-13 win as 14-point favorites but won the turnover battle 5-0.  A 17-point win being +5 in turnovers is not impressive at all.

Penn State isn't going to care about covering against UMass.  The Nittany Lions have their biggest game of the season on deck at Ohio State and will be looking ahead to that game.  I expect them to pull starters in the second half, and I don't think they'll be covering at any point against UMass in this one.

UMass actually has very good numbers for a team that is 1-6 this season, so it's time to 'buy low' on the Minutemen.  They are only getting outgained by 56 yards per game on the season.  Their offense has been able to move the football with 26.1 points per game, 397 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I think they can punch in a score or two to cover this inflated number against a Penn State in an awful spot looking ahead to Ohio State.  

The forecast is also going to help us cash this UNDER.  There is a 96% chance of rain with temps in the 40's Saturday at Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are going to have a hard time getting explosive plays in the rain, and they lack explosive plays all season.  They play a methodical style offense focused on the ground game and short passes.  I won't be surprised if they don't even reach 42 points today.  Bet UMass Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +33.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Michigan following consecutive blowout road wins at Nebraska 45-7 and at Minnesota 52-10.  The Wolverines have been much less dominant at home, going 0-3-1 ATS in their four home games not winning any of them by more than 28 points against ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green and Rutgers.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Indiana off a blowout 44-17 road loss at Maryland.  The Hoosiers had a bye last week coming off that defeat to regroup, and I expect a much better effort from them this week.  Keep in mind Indiana only lost by 7 on a neutral to Louisville and by 20 at home to Ohio State earlier this season.  Both Louisville and Ohio State are unbeaten to this point.

The forecast is going to help us cash the big underdog Hoosiers here.  There is a 90% chance of rain with 20 MPH winds expected in Michigan Saturday.  The Wolverines aren't going to be able to score enough points with that forecast to cover this inflated number.  They may not even score 34 or 35, which is what it's going to take to cover.

Michigan ranks 132nd out of 133 teams in tempo.  They average 31.8 seconds in between snaps.  Shortening the game for us also helps the underdog.  Indiana ranks 108th in pace at 28.4 seconds in between snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which again favors the big underdog.

Michigan hasn't been able to beat Indiana by this kind of margin in any of the last 16 meetings.  In fact, each of the last 16 meetings were decided by 31 points or less, including 15 by 25 points or fewer.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the Hoosiers pertaining to this 33.5-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Stanford/Colorado ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +12

The Colorado Buffaloes are running on fumes.  They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week here with this being a Friday night game.  They have been through the gauntlet of TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, Oregon, USC and Arizona State thus far.  They are coming off a 3-point win over ASU on the road last week that followed up a 7-point loss at USC with both games going to the wire and both needing max effort for 60 minutes.  They won't have anything left in the tank for Stanford tonight.

Meanwhile, Stanford gets a massive scheduling advantage here coming off a bye week following their home loss to Oregon.  Stanford has a first-year head coach, so bye weeks are much more beneficial to teams with first-year head coaches.  The Cardinal needed the bye because they went through the gauntlet as well with Hawaii, USC, Oregon and Arizona on the schedule thus far.  They nearly upset Arizona in a 1-point loss and beat Hawaii handily on the road while getting blown out by the other two teams as expected.

Colorado will remain without its best player in Travis Hunter for this game as they want to give him the extra time to rest especially with a bye on deck.  I don't think this Colorado defense can be trusted to lay this kind of number.  We saw that with Colorado State as they needed a last-second score just to force OT to win as 23-point home favorites a few weeks ago.  That's the same Colorado State team that just got blasted 44-24 by Utah State and outgained by over 300 yards.  Colorado allows 34.2 points per game, 466 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, so Stanford is never going to be out of this game.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points.  The Buffaloes are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two consecutive games.  Plays on road underdogs (Stanford) - off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against a team that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This situational rest advantage for the Cardinal is not being factored into this line enough.  Bet Stanford Friday.

20* Fresno State/Utah State MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +6.5

Utah State is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football despite being just 3-3 SU & 3-3 ATS this season.  Preseason expectations were very low on this team, but they have been very impressive, especially of late.

Utah State only lost 24-14 at Iowa as 24-point dogs in the opener and actually outgained the Hawkeyes.  They then beat Idah State 78-28 before losing on the road at Air Force by 18.  They only lost by 7 to James Madison at home in a coin flip game.  They have since gone on the road and won 34-33 at Connecticut, and last week was their most impressive performance yet beating Colorado State 44-24 as 3-point home dogs when all the money came against them.

They racked up 639 total yards on a very good Colorado State defense while holding a high-powered Rams offense to 320 total yards, outgaining them by 319 yards for the game.  Now they get to stay at home and host Fresno State in what is a huge game for them if they want to be Mountain West title contenders.  The Bulldogs are the defending conference champs, so Utah State will give an 'A' effort in this one.

Fresno State got off to a fraudulent 5-0 start against a very easy schedule that included home games against Eastern Washington, Kent State and Nevada.  But the Bulldogs finally met their match last week, losing 19-24 at Wyoming as 5-point favorites.  They now have to play in altitude for a 2nd straight week and are on a short week with this being a Friday game.

But the biggest reason I'm fading Fresno State here is because star QB Mikey Keene was was knocked out of that Wyoming loss late with injuries to both of his legs.  He remains questionable to play this week, and it's a long shot on a short week.  Backup Logan Fife isn't nearly as good.  Keene is a UCF transfer who played great for them last year and has carried over that play to Fresno State, completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio in 2023.  It would be a massive blow if he cannot go, but I love Utah State either way here.

Despite facing the much tougher schedule, Utah State has numbers that match those of Fresno State thus far.  Utah State averages 6.6 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 yards per play on defense outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  Fresno State averages 5.7 per play on offense and allows 4.5 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play as well.  Again, the Bulldogs have faced the much easier schedule.

Utah State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* West Virginia/Houston FS1 No-Brainer on West Virginia -2.5

West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Mountaineers play a physical brand of football that belongs in the Big Ten.  These Big 12 teams aren't prepared for it, and it's working wonders for the Mountaineers thus far.  Running the football and playing defense still wins in college football.

West Virginia is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with its lone loss coming on the road at Penn State in a game they should have covered, but James Franklin decided to punch one more score in instead of taking knees in the opener.  The Mountaineers have since reeled off four straight wins and covers, beating Duquesne 56-17 as 38.5-point favorites, Pitt 17-6 as 2.5-point favorites, Texas Tech 20-13 as 6-point dogs and TCU 24-21 as 13-point road dogs.

I don't trust Dana Holgorsen and Houston.  I gave them a chance last game as 10-point underdogs at Texas Tech because the Red Raiders had a backup QB going.  They jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but it didn't last long as they were blasted 49-28 to fall to 2-3 this season.  They were lucky to beat UTSA in the opener 17-14 due to being +3 in turnovers, or they'd be 1-4.  They also were upset at Rice as 7-point favorites.  Their only legit win came over Sam Houston State, which is 0-5 this season.

This is one of the rare instances we have two common opponents to compare these teams.  Houston lost 36-13 at home to TCU and 49-28 on the road to Texas Tech.  West Virginia beat TCU 24-21 on the road and beat Texas Tech 20-13 at home.  As you can see, West Virginia beat those two teams by a combined 10 points while Houston lost to them by a combined 44 points.

West Virginia has by far the superior defense allowing just 19.0 points per game, 335 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  Houston allows 29.8 points per game, 406 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  West Virginia averages 194 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry despite facing a tough schedule of opposing rush defenses, and Houston allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry despite facing an easy schedule of opposing rush offenses.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Sam Houston State/New Mexico State UNDER 42

There are expected to be 20 MPH winds inside Aggie Memorial Stadium Wednesday night in this matchup between Sam Houston State and New Mexico State.  Points are going to be hard to come by because of these winds, plus the fact that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.

New Mexico State ranks 128th out of 133 teams in tempo averaging 30.5 seconds in between plays.  Sam Houston State ranks 101st at 27.9 seconds in between plays, which says a lot about how slow they play when you consider they have trailed in every game this season and are 0-5 on the year.

Sam Houston has the worst offense in the entire country averaging 241.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  But they do have a very good defense that allows 379 yards per game despite facing a very tough schedule of BYU, Air Force, Houston, Liberty and Jacksonville State.  I would argue that this New Mexico State offense is the worst that they will have played all season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Coastal Carolina/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 60.5

Two high-powered offense go up against two suspect defenses tonight in this annual showdown between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State that usually ends up in a shootout.  It will be more of the same here Tuesday night.

Appalachian State averages 36.4 points per game, 463 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  The Mountaineers have great balance, rushing for 204 yards per game and passing for 259 yards per game.  They have a poor defense, allowing 30.8 points per game and 5.7 yards per play despite facing a soft schedule of opposing offenses that average 22.8 points pe game and 5.0 per play, allowing 8.0 points per game and 0.7 yards per play more.  They like to play fast ranking 41st of 133 teams at 24.7 seconds between plays.

Coastal Carolina averages 30.8 points per game, 425 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  They have one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Grayson McCall.  He is completing 64.3% of his passes for 1,302 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.8 per attempt.  Coastal allows 397 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense thus far despite facing a weak schedule.

Coastal is coming off a 28-38 loss to Georgia Southern and 66 combined points.  Appalachian State is coming off a 41-40 win over LA-Monroe and 81 combined points.  Note that LA-Monroe only scored 7 points against South Alabama last week, so that just shows how down this Mountaineers defense is this season.

Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 35-28 last season for 63 combined points.  These teams have combined for at least 57 points in six of their last even meetings.  They have averaged 67.5 combined points in their last four meetings.  

Coastal Carolina is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following two consecutive unders.  Appalachian State is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games coming off a win by 3 points or less.  The Chanticleers are 10-2 OVER in their last 12 road games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +22

This is a terrible spot for the USC Trojans.  They are coming off the big National TV win over Deion Sanders and Colorado last week and they have Notre Dame on deck next week followed by Utah.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Trojans, and I expect them to be flat as a result.

The Trojans have gotten away with sloppy play the past two weeks.  They only beat Arizona State 42-28 as 34-point favorites and Colorado 48-41 as 22-point favorites.  They failed to cover those two spreads by a combined 35 points, and they are once again getting too much respect here against Arizona as 22-point favorites.

Arizona could easily be 5-0 this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS and have been very competitive in every game.  They only lost 31-24 (OT) at Mississippi State as 9-point dogs due to committing five turnovers.  They outgained Mississippi State 431 to 307, or by 124 total yards.  Then last week they gave Washington their stiffest test of the season, losing 31-24 as 19-point home underdogs.  If they can hang with Washington, they can certainly hang with USC.

Arizona starting QB Jayden deLaura is questionable for this one after sitting out last week, but I'm not concerned.  Backup Noah Fifita has actually been better than deLaura, completing 74.5% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also showing some mobility on the ground.  He played very well against stout Washington defense last week, and now he gets to take on a suspect USC defense.

USC allowed 28 points to San Jose State, 28 points to what was a previously dead Arizona State offense and then 41 points to Colorado last week.  This could be the best offense that USC has played all season with only Colorado in Arizona's ballpark.  And we've seen USC's defense struggle to stop Arizona in recent meetings.

In fact, Arizona is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with USC losing by 8 as 14-point dogs, by 7 as 21.5-point dogs and by 4 as 17.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three meetings with USC.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by one score.  Don't be surprised if this one goes down to the wire as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Fresno State/Wyoming UNDER 45.5

There will be double-digit winds at Wyoming Saturday night that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  Of course, both of these defenses are elite, which will also help.  And Wyoming has another terrible offense this season while Fresno State is down a couple notches from previous offenses.

Wyoming has done well to only allow 25.2 points per game, 385 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play against a brutal schedule of opposing offenses that includes Texas Tech, Texas and Appalachian State.  The Cowboys are run-heavy again on offense this season averaging 36 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They average 325 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average allowing 396 yards per game and 6.1 per play, so they have been poor on offense.

Fresno State has played a very weak schedule of opposing defenses this season and averages just 5.8 yards per play against teams that allow 6.0 yards per play.  They have faces Purdue, Eastern Washington, Arizona State, Kent State and Nevada.  They are allowing 17.0 points per game, 282 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They have held their last three opponents to a total of 19 points and an average of 6.3 points per game.  And Nevada scored a TD in the final seconds last week or it would be even better.

Wyoming ranks 120th out of 133 teams in pace at 29.3 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Cowboys will dictate tempo here playing at home.  But it's not like Fresno plays fast as they rank 86th at 27.0 seconds in between snaps.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 30, 17, 30 and 20 combined points.  None of those four meetings even sniffed this 45.5-point total, and this one won't, either.  Wyoming is 20-6 UNDER in its last 26 home games after a game where 60 or more total combined points were scored.  Wyoming is 33-13 UNDER in its last 46 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Jeff Tedford is 7-0 UNDER in road games following three consecutive wins by 17 points or more as a head coach.  Craig Bohl is 10-2 UNDER game in October home games as the coach of Wyoming.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -1.5

Colorado State's 50-24 home loss in the opener has them undervalued.  The Rams are in Year 2 of Jay Norvell's system and it was going to take some time, but he's such a great coach he was going to get this program turned around.  And it turns out Washington State is very good as they are still unbeaten with wins over both Wisconsin and Oregon State as well.

Colorado State went on to take Colorado to OT an was unfortunate not to win that game outright as a 23-point underdog in a 43-35 defeat.  The Rams avoided the letdown the next week and went into Middle Tennessee and pulled off the 31-23 upset as 3.5-point road dogs.  The Rams then handled their business last week in a 41-20 win over Utah Tech.

A big reason for the Rams' resurgence is freshman QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi taking over for Clay Millen at quarterback.  Fowler-Nicolosi is completing 72.5% of his passes for 1,360 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 per attempt and only getting sacked four times.  He is running Norvell's system as efficiently as can be expected.

Utah State is in a terrible spot this week.  The Aggies are a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week to open the season, while the Rams have already had a bye.  They are coming off three straight difficult games with a 21-39 loss at Air Force, a 38-45 home loss to James Madison and a fortunate 34-33 win at UConn last week after the Huskies missed the potential tying extra point.  They had to travel clear across the country to face UConn last week and all the way back to Utah.  I can't help but think this is a tired team, especially after playing in those consecutive shootouts.

Colorado State has played the tougher schedule thus far and has held up well, averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.1 yards per play.  Utah State is allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play.  Utah State may also be without QB McCae Hillstead, who exited last game with a concussion and is questionable to return this week.  Backup Cooper Legas isn't as good and is more of a running QB than a passing QB and easier to defend.

Norvell is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games following two consecutive games with 40 or more pass attempts as a head coach.  Blake Anderson is 3-12 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Iowa State OVER 52

Iowa State faced three weak offenses in Northern Iowa, Iowa and Ohio to start the season.  They went under the total in all three.  But the Cyclones have taken a big step up in class the past two weeks in opposing offenses, and we saw both games fly over the total.  Now they get another juggernaut offense Saturday in TCU and this total hasn't been adjusted up high enough.  There's clear value on the OVER.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 34-27 for 61 combined points two weeks ago.  Last week, Iowa State lost 50-20 to Oklahoma for 70 combined points.  This Cyclones defense has been exposed, but the offense has shown some life since pretty much abandoning the running game and spreading things out.  The Cyclones have been going with more 3-4 WR sets instead of 2 TE sets, and it has opened things up for the offense.

TCU ranks 3rd in the country in pace averaging just 20.9 seconds in between snaps.  That quick pace means more possessions for both teams and more points.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 34.8 points per game, 487 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play on a ridiculous 79 plays per game on offense.  They allow 71 plays per game on defense due to playing so fast.

This 52-point total is very low when you look at the recent head-to-head history.  Indeed, the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points, respectively.  It will be more of the same Saturday night when these two Big 12 rivals get together.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 49

A quick look at the recent head-to-head history between Kentucky and Georgia and it's easy to see there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 22, 43, 17 and 21 combined points.  This total of 49 is set way too high given the head-to-head history.

Georgia's offense is down this season and Kentucky's offense isn't as good as it was expected to be with Devin Leary at quarterback.  Leary is only completing 57.7% of his passes this season despite facing a soft schedule.  Kentucky has relied on its ground game and just posted 329 yards on the ground against Florida last week.

Kentucky knows they can run the ball on Georgia but won't have much success throwing it considering the Bulldogs only give up 4.7 yards per attempt.  And they know their best chance of being competitive is to limit the possessions and slow the game down to a snail's pace, which is what they do every year against Georgia to stay competitive and it's why they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Kentucky ranks 123rd out of 133 teams in pace this season averaging 29.6 seconds in between plays.  Georgia ranks 96th at 27.6 seconds, so they like to play slow too.

Georgia allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week and gives up 4.0 per carry this season.  That's a far cry from Georgia defenses of the past two years when they won national titles.  And they have played a very soft schedule thus far.  They were held to 24 points by a bad South Carolina defense and needed a late TD to get to 27 against Auburn last week.

Kentucky will be the best defense Georgia has faced yet, and vice versa.  The Wildcats only allow 15.2 points per game, 297 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats have been very good against the run, allowing 76 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per play.

I haven't even mentioned the weather yet.  There are expected to be 17 MPH winds Saturday at Georgia, so both teams will be looking to keep it on the ground if they weren't already.  Kentucky is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 9-0 UNDER in their last nine games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  

Kentucky is 10-1 UNDER in its last 11 road games vs. teams that average 32 or more possessions minutes and 21 or more first downs per game.  Stoops is 10-1 UNDER in road games following a conference home win as the coach of Kentucky.  Kirby Smart is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 10-plus points per game as the coach of Georgia.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Georgia SEC No-Brainer on Kentucky +14.5

I faded Georgia in the first two games of the season with success assuming they'd be flat coming off back-to-back national titles.  My biggest regret this college football season is not continuing to fade them.  I won't make that mistake this week now that they are playing the best opponent they have all season.

Georgia is 0-4-1 ATS this season.  The Bulldogs have remained flat and are going through the motions.  Of course, they also lost a ton of talent from last year's national title team.  The offense has taken a big step back and the defense isn't nearly as dominant as it was a year ago.

Georgia trailed South Carolina 14-3 at halftime at home in Week 3 and failed to cover as 26-point favorites in a 10-point win.  The Bulldogs only beat UAB by 28 at home as 40-point favorites the next week, and last week they needed a late TD at Auburn just to escape with a victory in a 27-20 win as 14-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs have to face Kentucky, who is clearly the 2nd-best team in the SEC East at worst this season.  The Wildcats are 5-0 this season with all five victories coming by 11 points or more.  None was more impressive than last week's 33-14 home win over Florida.  The Wildcats rushed for 329 yards on a good Florida defense, and they are physical enough to match Georgia in this one.

Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Georgia, and this may be one of the best teams in Kentucky history, while the last two editions of Georgia were arguably their two best teams in Georgia history.  Kentucky only lost 16-6 as 22.5-point home dogs last year, 30-13 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2021, 14-3 as 17-point home dogs in 2020 and 21-0 as 24-point road dogs in 2019.

Kentucky has shown it has the defense to hold Georgia in check, which will be the case again this season.  But the Wildcats have their best offense of the Mark Stoops era and can score on this Georgia defense, which allowed 219 rushing yards to Auburn last week.  Georgia hasn't rushed for more than 189 yards in any game this season despite the soft schedule, so Kentucky can contain them on the ground.  Kentucky is averaging 7.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the entire county.

In fact, I think Kentucky wins the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  The Wildcats average 6.5 yards per carry on offense and give up just 2.5 yards per carry on defense.  Compare that to Georgia, which averages 4.4 yards per carry on offense and allows 4.0 yards per carry on defense, and you'd be surprised to see the team outgaining their opponents by 4.0 yards per carry as a 14.5-point underdog to the team that is only outgaining their opponents by 0.4 yards per carry.  That just shows Georgia being overvalued due to the name on their jerseys after winning consecutive national titles.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kent State/Ohio UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket between Kent State and Ohio.  There are expected to be 18 MPH winds with a 25% chance of rain and temps in the 50's Saturday afternoon at Peden Stadium.  Of course, Kent State's woeful offense up against Ohio's elite defense is another reason to be on the UNDER in this one.

Ohio is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Bobcats are only scoring 21.0 points per game and average 4.8 yards per play on offense.  But they have one of the very best defenses in the country, allowing just 10.8 points per game, 237 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play defensively.  On top of that, the Bobcats rank 119th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 29.2 seconds in between snaps.

Kent State also likes to play slow this season, ranking 80th out of 133 teams at 26.7 seconds in between snaps.  That's notable because Kent State has been trailing in every game other than its 38-10 win over FCS Central Connecticut State.  The Golden Flashes managed just 6 points against UCF, 6 points against Arkansas, 10 points against Fresno and 3 points against Miami Ohio in their four other games.  

It's a terrible Kent State offense averaging 12.6 points per game, 268.8 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play.  But this Kent State defense has been better than expected.  They held Arkansas to 28 points and 308 total yards and Miami Ohio to 23 points and 292 total yards.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Wisconsin UNDER 44.5

The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Rutgers and Wisconsin Saturday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the 40's with 18 MPH crosswinds at Camp Randall Stadium.  Both teams are going to be looking to keep the ball on the ground in this one, and that's going to keep the clock moving and favor this UNDER bet.

Of course, both teams already are run-heavy.  Rutgers averages 41 rush attempts per game compared to 22 passing, while Wisconsin averages 37 rush attempts per game compared to 32 passing.  Both teams are elite against the run.  Rutgers only allows 99 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry, while Wisconsin allows 117 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

A big reason for Rutgers' resurgence this season is defense as they allow 12.8 points per game, 268 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  Wisconsin only allows 19.8 points per game despite facing a tough schedule of opposing offenses that includes Washington State, Purdue and Georgia Southern.

Rutgers ranks 128th out of 133 teams in pace at 30.6 seconds in between snaps on offense.  The Scarlet Knights will try to slow this one down and limit possessions as well.  Wisconsin has been going a little faster than normal this season ranking 50th, but I don't expect that to be the case Saturday given the weather conditions.

Rutgers are 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 road games, including 7-0 UNDER In its last seven road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  Rutgers is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine road games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Army -3

I love the spot for Army this week and hate the spot for Boston College.  It's a good spot for Army because they are coming off a bye week.  They are very close to being 4-0 this season, blowing a late 10-point lead in the opener to UL-Monroe and blowing a 10-3 halftime lead at Syracuse for their two losses.  I think the Black Knights would be laying more than 3 if they won both of those games, so we are getting them at a discount.

It's a bad spot for Boston College because they are coming off a big come-from-behind victory to beat Virginia 27-24 last week.  That came after losing by 2 to Florida State and giving up 56 points in a 28-point loss at Louisville.  So they have played three straight ACC games, and now they step out of conference this week before returning to conference play next week against Georgia Tech.  This is a natural letdown spot for the Eagles, who are also gassed at this point.  The last thing they want to do is try to stop Army's triple-option, which is no fun for opposing defenses.

Boston College is going to be without second-leading receiver Ryan O'Keefe, who left last game with a neck injury.  He has 23 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles this season.  They could also be without top RB Kye Robichaux, who has rushed for 206 yards and two touchdowns this season.  He sat out last game and is questionable to play Army Saturday.

I think the fact that Boston College came back against Florida State a few weeks ago and made a game of it is giving them more credit than they deserve.  That was the only game they covered the spread all season as they are 1-4 ATS.  The Eagles lost outright as 8-point home favorites to Northern Illinois and barely beat FCS Holy Cross 31-28 as a 10.5-point favorite.

Boston College is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Jeff Hafley is 0-7 ATS in road games on turf as the coach of Boston College.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Illinois FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +3.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to favor the Cornhuskers.

Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.  They lost that game 44-19 at Purdue, which has lost at home to Fresno State and Syracuse, so that loss looks even worse now.

It's a good 'buy low' spot on Nebraska coming off a 45-7 loss to Michigan.  The Wolverines just played keepaway in that game and their stout run defense caused Nebraska problems.  It wasn't as lopsided as the final score as Michigan only outgained Nebraska by 131 yards.  Michigan averaged 5.9 yards per play compared to 6.6 yards per play for Nebraska.

Illinois only beat Toledo by 2 at home and FAU by 6 at home for its two wins this season en route to a 2-3 start.  The Fighting Illini are 0-5 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 10.4 points per game.  They have been grossly overvalued after a great season last year, but they lost a ton of talent from that team and aren't close to that team.

Since both teams are going to have to keep the ball on the ground, the matchup favors Nebraska.  The Huskers average 209 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while Illinois averages 144 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Nebraska only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry, while Illinois allows 180 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.

Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after having fewer than 26 possessions minutes and fewer than 13 first downs last game.  Illinois is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  Matt Rhule is a perfect 8-0 ATS all-time after failing to cover the spread in three of his last four games as a head coach.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER 43.5

The forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER 43.5 between Nebraska and Illinois Friday.  Temps will be in the 50's with greater than 20 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium in Illinois.  The heavy winds are going to force both teams to keep the ball on the ground, which is going to keep the clock moving.  Both teams prefer to run the ball anyway.

Nebraska averages just 18.8 points per game this season.  The Huskers average 38 rush attempts compared to 22 pass attempts per game.  Illinois averages 21.6 points per game this season.  The Fighting Illini average 33 rush attempts and 33 pass attempts per game.  Nebraska ranks 114th out of 133 teams in pace, averaging 28.7 seconds in between plays.  They will slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Last year, Illinois won 26-9 at Nebraska for just 35 combined points.  The Fighting Illini held the Huskers to just 250 total yards and forced four turnovers.  Nebraska held Illinois to 369 total yards and has a great defense this season, allowing just 325.6 yards per game and 4.8 per play.  Illinois could be without star RB Reggie Love III, who sat out their last game with an ankle injury and is questionable.

The UNDER is 19-9 in Bret Bielema's 28 games at Illinois. Matt Rhule is 15-5 UNDER after a game where they forced no turnovers as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* WKU/LA Tech ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +6.5

Western Kentucky is 3-0 at home this season with wins over South Florida, Houston Baptist and Middle Tennessee.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Hilltoppers.  They lost 63-10 at Ohio State and 27-24 at Troy in a misleading final.  They were outgained 288 to 521 by the Trojans, or by 233 total yards.

Louisiana Tech is 3-3 this season including 2-1 at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points to North Texas in overtime.  They won 24-10 on the road at UTEP last week.  They were also competitive in a 28-14 road loss at Nebraska with their only real blowout loss coming on the road at SMU.  I expect them to be in this game for four quarters against an overrated Western Kentucky team.

I love the numbers LA Tech has posted this season on a yards per play basis, which is arguably the most important stat in all of college football.  LA Tech averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows just 5.3 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to Western Kentucky, which averages 5.6 yards per play on offense and allows 6.3 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see why I'm on the home underdog here.

The weakness of the Bulldogs is their run defense, which is allowing 226 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The strength of the Bulldogs is their pass defense, which is allowing just 152 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt.  That makes this a great matchup for them considering Western Kentucky has no running game and relies heavily on its passing attack.  The Hilltoppers only average 97 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry compared to 286 passing yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.

Louisiana Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road game.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Tech) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent with two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +20.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued now after a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They had no business covering two of those games.  They only led SMU 14-11 as 16-point favorites with with under 10 minutes left but scored two more touchdowns to win 28-11.  They were actually outgained by SMU.  SMU lost 34-17 at TCU last week.

Then last week Oklahoma beat Cincinnati 20-6 as 13-point road favorites.  That was another big misleading final as Cincinnati turned it over twice in the red zone.  They only outgained Cincinnati by 49 yards and gave up 376 yards to a bad Bearcats offense.  I do think their defensive is improved, but their offense isn't as good as the numbers because they padded their stats against Tulsa and Arkansas State, but struggled to score against SMU and Cincinnati.

Not only are the Sooners overvalued, but they have their biggest game of the season on deck against Texas in the Red River Rivalry that will go a long way in determining not only if they win the Big 12, but also if they can contend for a national title.  This is a sandwich spot coming off a big road win at Cincinnati in their Big 12 opener as well.  They probably just think they have to show up to win against Iowa State.

That won't be the case.  Iowa State could easily be 4-0 this season when you look at the box scores of their games, but they are 2-2 and undervalued as a result.  This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Cyclones.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points per game in three consecutive seasons now and have another elite defense this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game, 299 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through three games.  Their defense could be the best unit on the field Saturday.

The reason the Cyclones could be 4-0 is because they outgained Iowa 290 to 235 and had 19 first downs compared to just 9 for Iowa.  The only difference was Iowa getting a pick 6 and Iowa State missing a short field goal in a 20-13 defeat.  But Iowa always seems to get a defensive or special teams touchdown against them every year and it's always the difference in a close game.

Iowa State outgained Ohio 271 to 247 for the game but lost the turnover battle 2-0 in a 10-7 defeat.  One was a deflected pass.  I thought QB Becht played well in that game for the Cyclones, going 17-of-24 passing for 233 yards with a touchdown and those two interceptions, while also rushing for 31 yards on nine carries.  Keep in mind Ohio is one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country and Iowa State was only a 3-point favorite.

Then last week I backed Iowa State -2.5 in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.  I liked what I saw from their offense as they abandoned the running game early, spread their receivers out with less two TE sets, and let Becht go to work.  It worked as Becht had his best game of the season, completing 27 of 38 passes for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception.  It also opened up the running game in the second half for them to salt the game away.  The change of offensive philosophy is a big reason I'm 'buying' on the Cyclones moving forward.  They are great in pass protection as Becht has only been sacked once all season, so they are playing to their strengths.

Nobody has played Oklahoma tougher than Iowa State in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last eight meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  And even that 14-point loss last year was very misleading.  Iowa State actually outgained Oklahoma 374 to 332 for the game.  They have outgained Oklahoma in four consecutive meetings, and haven't been outgained by more than 72 yards in any of their last seven meetings.  

Matt Campbell is 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog as the coach of Iowa State, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or more.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia State -1

Everyone keeps sleeping on Georgia State.  I backed them heavily as 7-point road dogs at Coastal Carolina last week and they delivered with a 30-17 victory.  I'll back them again here as they should be much more than 1-point favorites against Troy.

Georgia State is 4-0 this season going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, beating UConn by 21 at home, Charlotte by 16 on the road and Coastal by 30 on the road.  Charlotte only lost by 15 at Florida and Coastal only lost by 14 at UCLA.  So those wins have more credence now than they did before.

Georgia State's offense has tremendous balance averaging 37.0 points per game, 196 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  They have one of the best QB's in the Sun Belt in Darren Grainger, who is completing 70% of his passes for 994 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio and 9.5 per attempt.  Grainger is a dual-threat who has rushed for 263 yards, 3 TD and 5.6 per carry.

I love the spot for Georgia State, too.  They have two extra days of rest coming into this one after playing last Thursday.  This is a night game at 7:00 EST and fans are getting behind this team knowing they have a real shot of winning the Sun Belt and doing big things this year.  Plus, there will be no letdown facing the defending Sun Belt champs in Troy.  They will be max-motivated and give their best effort.

Troy has been overvalued since winning the Sun Belt last year.  They brought back just 12 starters from that team and lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, especially defensively.  Troy gave up 30 points to Stephen F. Austin as a 25.5-point favorite in the opener.  Troy gave up 42 points at Kansas State in a 29-point loss.  They are now 0-4 ATS this season and getting way too much respect from the books again this week.

Georgia State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Shawn Elliott is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Georgia State.  Elliott is 12-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Georgia State.  He is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Hawaii +11.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UNLV after a 3-1 start to the season.  The win over UTEP last week doesn't look very good now as UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country.  The 44-14 win over Bryant in the opener was very misleading as they were actually outgained by 15 yards by Bryant.

These teams have a common opponent in Vanderbilt.  UNLV beat Vanderbilt 40-37 at home and took advantage of four turnovers by the Commodores and getting outgained by 17 yards.  Meanwhile, Hawaii lost 35-28 on the road to Vanderbilt and should have won that game outright.  Hawaii outgained Vanderbilt by 94 yards in that game and held them to just 297 total yards.

This has been a very closely-contested series, so I'm more than happy to take double-digits with the Rainbow Warriors.  Only twice in the last 11 meetings has Hawaii lost by more than 8 points to UNLV.  The Rebels are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games after winning two of their last three games coming in.  The Rainbow Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Hawaii) - off two or more consecutive unders who are also outscored by 7 or more points per game on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Hawaii Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +14

Wyoming is off to a surprising 3-1 start this season.  But the Cowboys should be 1-3 when you dive into the box scores a little deeper, and they just haven't been that good.  This fraudulent 3-1 record has Wyoming laying more points to New Mexico today than they should be.

Wyoming beat Texas Tech 35-33 (OT) in the opener despite being down 17-0 and getting outgained by 111 yards.  They only managed 320 yards on offense.  They had a bit of a letdown the next week against Portland State, winning 31-17 as 28-point favorites despite getting outgained by 27 yards and being held to 344 total yards.  They were held to 291 yards in their 31-10 loss to Texas.  And last week was the most misleading of all, beating Appalachian State 22-19 despite being held to 208 total yards and getting outgained by 209 yards.

As you can see, Wyoming has a terrible offense again this season averaging just 297.5 yards per game. That woeful offense makes it very difficult for them to cover these lofty spreads as favorites.  The Cowboys are much better in the underdog role than they are in the favorite role, especially in the big favorite role.

New Mexico has the best offense they have had in years.  They are scoring 29.3 points per game and averaging 384.5 yards per game this season.  They have opened 2-2 with wins over Tennessee Tech and UMass and losses to Texas A&M and New Mexico State, but they were very competitive against NMSU with 401 yards on offense compared to 397 for NMSU.

The Cowboys were flat against Portland State after beating Texas Tech.  I think they'll be flat again today after beating Appalachian State and with MWC defending champ Fresno State on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  New Mexico has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' for this one.  Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB TOTAL OF THE DAY on New Mexico/Wyoming UNDER 42.5

There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds at Wyoming today that will help aid us in cashing this UNDER 42.5 ticket.  These are two teams with bad offenses and good defenses, which is the case every year in this rivalry.  That's why these games tend to go UNDER the total when they get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Wyoming and New Mexico, but would be 5-0 with a 42.5-point total.  They have combined for 41, 17, 33, 33 and 34 points in their last five meetings, respectively.

Wyoming plays slow ranking 117th out of 133 teams in seconds per play at 29.0 seconds in between plays.  New Mexico ranks 111th at 28.7 seconds in between offensive snaps.  This game will be played at a snail's pace, which also bodes well for the UNDER in limiting possessions.

Wyoming is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games following a win.  New Mexico is 6-0 UNDER in its last six road games after going over the total in its previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.