Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-24 | Colts v. Vikings OVER 46.5 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 43 m | Show |
20* Colts/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 46.5 The Indianapolis Colts announced they were going to start Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future this week. The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team with Flacco at quarterback, so I'm happy to get this OVER 46.5 under the key numbers of 47 and 48 this week. We saw the Cleveland Browns take off on offense with Flacco under center last season turning them into a dead nuts OVER team down the stretch. He has done the same in his few starts with the Colts this season. Flacco just makes better use of all their weapons, and the Colts have some of the more underrated weapons in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy, and the trio of Pittman, Downs and Pierce at receiver showcase their talents at lot more with Flacco. The Colts found themselves in a shootout with the Steelers in a 27-24 win for 51 combined points with Flacco at QB earlier this season. They found themselves in another 37-34 shootout with the Jaguars and 71 combined points with Flacco under center the next week. Anthony Richardson is the most inaccurate QB in the NFL, and their offense has been lacking with him under center the last couple weeks. Him taking himself out of the game because he was tired last week was the final straw. The Vikings have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks. They have gone for 50 or more combined points in three of their last four games. Sam Darnold is proving what he can do when he finally has some weapons, and the Vikings have some of the best weapons in the entire NFL. They have been rolling on offense this season with Jordan Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones making a ton of plays. And now even more reinforcements are on the way. The Vikings traded for LT Cam Robinson of the Jaguars this week to make up for the loss of LT Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Robinson is one of the best left tackles in the game. TE TJ Hockenson is expected to make his season debut this week as well. Hockenson was a monster last season with 95 receptions for 960 yards and 5 TD. This offense is going to be pretty unstoppable moving forward. Both defenses leave a lot to be desired. The Vikings started the season great defensively, but opposing offenses are starting to figure them out. They have allowed 29 or more points in three of their last four games. The Colts rank 28th in total defense allowing 380 yards per game this season. They have faced one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses to boot. This Minnesota offense will be the best offense they have faced since allowing 29 points and 417 yards to a fully healthy Texans offense back in Week 1. It looks like there will be some weather in the NFL this week as we enter the month of November. But that's not going to affect this game considering it is being played indoors at US Bank Stadium in Minnesota. This game has shootout written all over it Sunday night. Bet the OVER in this game. |
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11-03-24 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 44 m | Show |
20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles -1 I was big on the Rams in their last game as my 25* TNF GAME OF THE YEAR as +3.5 underdogs in a 30-20 upset home win over the Minnesota Vikings. I'm back on them again for many of the same reasons. They got both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back from injury last week, and their offense was fully healthy for basically the first time since Week 1. They put up 386 total yards against the Vikings and held them to just 276 with an underrated defense. I know Nacua tweaked his knee in practice this week since I released this play, but he is still expected to give it a go. As much as I am 'buying' on the Rams right now, I'm 'selling' on the Seahawks just as much. Since opening 3-0 against the softest schedule in the NFL up to that point, the Seahawks have since gone just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Seahawks lost by 13 at Detroit as 4-point dogs, by 9 at home to the Giants as 7-point favorites, by 12 at home to the 49ers as 3.5-point dogs and then by 21 at home last week to the Bills as 3-point dogs. So they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three home games, and not even the 12th man can make up for all the injuries they are dealing with right now. The Seahawks have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games. They are banged up on defense and just not that talented on this side of the ball if I'm being honest. They are also banged up on the offensive line as Geno Smith almost has no time to throw, and now he is without his best weapon in DK Metcalf, who has been ruled out again this week. The Seahawks managed just 233 total yards against the Bills last week in their first game without Metcalf. Buffalo also put up 445 total yards on this Seattle defense, doing pretty much whatever they wanted to despite the fact that the Seahawks got some guys back from injury. There's just not a lot to like about this Seattle team on either side of the football. The Rams are surging and back in the NFC West title hunt off two consecutive victories. They are basically as healthy as they have been all season, and now they have extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday last week. The Seahawks are a tired, beat up team playing for a 9th consecutive week while the Rams already had their bye week. Finally, Matthew Stafford has never lost to the Seahawks as a starting QB for the Rams. Bet the Rams Sunday. |
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11-03-24 | Lions v. Packers +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 54 m | Show |
20* Lions/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Green Bay +3.5 I took the Green Bay Packers +3.5 before it was announced that Jordan Love was likely to play. I liked them at this number with or without Love, so it has just been a bonus that he is expected to play since. I fully expect the Packers to win this game outright as I believe they should be favored. Amazingly, Jared Goff has been able to play his first seven games of the season all indoors. Well, this will be his first outdoor game of the season, and while Goff is 39-16 ATS indoors, he is just 34-34-1 ATS outdoors. Plus, the forecast is calling for a 95% chance of rain and 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field. Goff has small hands which is why he struggles so much in the elements. The Lions are grossly overvalued now after starting 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season. They are coming off a misleading 52-14 home win over the Titans last week. They had over 300 return yards and basically had three special teams touchdowns. They only managed 225 total yards against the Titans and allowed 416, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards. While Detroit has an elite offense, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Lions are really beat up on the defensive line missing three starters including Aidan Hutchinson, who has 7 sacks, 1 FF and 17 QB hurries this season. This is the game his loss is finally felt. They are also going to be without LB Malcolm Rodriquez. The Packers have the offense that can take advantage of these injuries. They rank 6th in scoring at 27.0 points per game, 5th in total offense at 388.0 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play. They are 5th in rushing at 156.9 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. They have more balance this season than they have had in a long time, and keep in mind they have played 2.5 games without Love. Favorites of 3.5 or more points off a win by 35-plus points are 8-28 ATS in their last 36 tries. Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home, including 6-1 ATS as a home underdog. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Packers Sunday. |
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11-03-24 | Jaguars v. Eagles -7 | 23-28 | Loss | -104 | 126 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -7 The Philadelphia Eagles got a much-needed bye in Week 5 to get healthy. They got both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back out of their bye, and they haven't looked back since. Nobody is playing better than the Eagles since Week 6. The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They came out of their bye with a 20-16 home win over the Browns, but this was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Browns got a 50-yard blocked FG return TD right before half that turned a 13-3 game into a 10-10 game. Philadelphia outgained Cleveland 372 to 244, or by 128 total yards. The Eagles came back with a dominant 28-3 road win over the New York Giants two weeks ago. They outgained the Giants 339 to 119, or by 220 total yards. And last week's 37-17 win at Cincinnati might have been the most impressive of the bunch. They outgained the Bengals 397 to 270, or by 137 total yards. Holding Joe Burrow down like that is no fluke. The offense features arguably the best playmakers in the entire NFL in QB Hurts, RB Barkley, WR Brown and WR Smith. But the improvement from the defense under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio is why I'm so high on this team. The Eagles are allowing just 211 yards per game in their last three games. While the Eagles remain fresh after having a bye already, the Jaguars have to be one of the most tired teams in the NFL. They will be playing for a 9th consecutive week, which includes two games over in London. They returned home last week and gave a valiant effort in a 30-27 home loss to the Green Bay Packers. But it came at a much bigger cost than just one loss. The Jaguars were decimated by injuries in that loss to the Packers. They lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury. Fellow starting WR's Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were both knocked out of that game and questionable to play this week. They lost starting LG Ezra Cleveland to injury and he is out this week. And RG Brandon Scherff was knocked out and questionable to play this week. So the Jaguars aren't going to have much success against this surging Philadelphia defense with all these offensive injuries. And the Eagles should get whatever they want on offense against a very suspect Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 29th in total defense at 382.1 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play. The Jaguars are 0-4 in road games this season including a 47-10 blowout loss at Buffalo. They also lost by 19 to Chicago over in London. I don't love laying big numbers in the NFL, but getting the Eagles as 7-point favorites here is a discount given all the factors in their favor. I expect them to win this game by double-digits. Bet the Eagles Sunday. |
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11-03-24 | Chargers v. Browns OVER 42 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 23 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Browns OVER 42 The Los Angeles Chargers are as healthy as they have been all season right now. They have their full compliment of weapons available on offense for basically the first time all season as both WR Quentin Johnson and TE Hayden Hurst are expected to return this week. There's a chance they get WR DJ Chark back as well. This Chargers offense is trending in the right direction going to a more pass-heavy scheme the last few weeks. They managed 395 total yards on the Cardinals two weeks ago behind 349 passing yards from Justin Herbert. They put up another 378 total yards on the Saints last week and 279 passing from Herbert. I expect the Chargers to have plenty of success on offense against the Cleveland Browns, who are becoming decimated by injuries at linebacker. They were already without starting MLB Jordan Hicks, and now they are going to be without WLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (61 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT), who suffered a neck injury against the Ravens last week. He's their most important defender outside of Myles Garrett. Top CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion last week and is questionable. Jameis Winston finally got a chance to start last week and rejuvenated this Cleveland offense. The Browns topped 20 points for the first time all season, putting up 29 points and 401 total yards against Baltimore. Winston went 27-of-41 passing for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns without an interception. Of course, a big reason for his success was the fact that the Browns finally had all five starters healthy on the offensive line, and they were fully healthy on offense for the first time all season. Winston is a great 'OVER' QB because he stretches the field and takes chances that most quarterbacks wouldn't. That also makes him prone to interceptions, which also benefits the OVER and will set up the Chargers with some short fields. The Chargers have great defensive numbers this season, which is a big reason this total is as low as it is. But their schedule of opposing offenses has been pretty laughable. They have played the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers. Many of those offenses were limited by injuries at QB and at the skill positions at the time they played them. I think this will be the toughest test of the season for this Chargers defense now playing a fully healthy, more potent Cleveland offense this week. Injuries are a problem for the Chargers as well with LB Joey Bosa and LB Denzel Perryman questionable, with CB's Kristian Fullton and Deane Leonard out. I like the fact that both offenses are going much more pass-heavy, which stops the clock on incompletions and creates more scoring chances at the same time. This total of 42 is simply too low given the current state of both teams. We are getting the over at a discount, especially with the forecast calling for temps in the 60's, no rain and almost no wind in Cleveland Sunday afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-02-24 | TCU v. Baylor -3 | Top | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 94 h 46 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -3 Baylor is exactly the type of team I like to back at this point of the season. They are much better than their 4-4 record would indicate, and they are showing a lot of fight right now trying to make a bowl game late in the season. Baylor has legit road losses to Utah and Iowa State, but the Bears really should be 6-2 this season. Colorado needed a hail mary to force OT to beat them in Boulder, and the other loss came by 6 at home to BYU, which is currently undefeated. Nobody has played BYU tougher than Baylor did. They actually outgained the Cougars 387 to 367 for the game. Sitting at 2-4 on the season after the loss to Iowa State, the Bears could have packed it in going into their bye week. Instead, they have responded with two of their best performances of the season. They crushed Texas Tech 59-35 on the road behind 629 total yards of offense two weeks ago. Last week they beat Oklahoma State 38-28 at home behind another 565 total yards. TCU is 5-3 this season it has come against a much softer schedule than Baylor has played. The five wins have come against Stanford, FCS Long Island, Kansas, Utah without Cam Rising and Texas Tech. They also lost outright to Houston as 16-point favorites, their home loss to UCF looks even worse now, and they lost by 24 to the best team they have faced thus far in SMU. TCU needed a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half to beat Texas Tech by 1 last week. This came after the Red Raiders lost their starting QB to injury as well. And that give these teams a recent common opponent. Baylor just blasted Texas Tech by 24 two weeks ago. No question the Bears are the team playing the better football right now. There is a good chance of wind and rain in this one, and Baylor is by far the superior rushing team with much better balance on offense than TCU. The Horned Frogs only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and Baylor only allows 3.7 yards per carry on defense. Baylor averages 176 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry on offense, while TCU allows 166 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry on defense. Finally, Baylor wants revenge from four consecutive losses to TCU in this head-to-head series, including a couple heartbreakers. I think they have the better team this season and will finally get it done, plus they are at home here where they have played their best football this season. They should be more than 3-point home favorites. Bet Baylor Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Navy -11 v. Rice | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 22 m | Show | |
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Navy -11 The Navy Midshipmen have been an absolute wagon this season going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS. But they just lost to Notre Dame last week 51-14 for their first defeat of the season. That misleading final score has the betting public off their scent, and now is the time to 'buy low' on the Midshipmen off that embarrassing loss. Navy isn't eliminated from the 12-team playoff yet, and a big finish could get them in. They still have chances to impress coming up including games against two very good teams in Tulane and Army. But it starts with a rebound this week against a terrible Rice team. The reason that loss to Notre Dame was misleading was because Navy uncharacteristically committed six turnovers that set up a bunch of easy points for the Fighting Irish. Ball security will be at the forefront of their game plan for Rice, and I expect them to execute flawlessly this week. Rice is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS this season and just fired its head coach in Mike Bloomgren, who had taken them to a bowl the last two years. I think this is a program in turmoil now and I don't think they should have fired him. There's just not a lot to like about this Rice team. Rice doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Navy in this one. The Owls were held to 10 points each of the last two weeks, and their lone touchdown last week against Connecticut came on a kickoff return. They rank 109th in scoring offense at 21.6 points per game and 114th in total offense at 329.6 yards per game. Navy ranks 10th in scoring offense at 40.4 points per game. Rice faced a similar Army team earlier this season and got blasted 37-14. They allowed 288 rushing yards to the Black Knights. Navy will have similar success and win this one going away. Bet Navy Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | UCLA +7 v. Nebraska | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 52 m | Show | |
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA +7 For starters, UCLA has played the single-toughest schedule in the entire country up to this point. The Bruins have been through the gauntlet, which is why it was so importanta that they got a bye last week to recover. Now rested and ready to go, I expect a big effort from the Bruins this week at Nebraska. UCLA has already had to face the likes of Indiana, Oregon and Minnesota at home as well as LSU, Penn State and Rutgers on the road. The Bruins have shown great improvement each week going 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They only lost by 17 at LSU as 21-dogs, by 21 at home to Oregon as 23.5-point dogs, by 16 at Penn State as 29.5-point dogs, by 4 to Minnesota at home as 3.5-point closing dogs, and won outright at Rutgers 35-32 as 4-point dogs going into their bye. I think the spot is terrible for Nebraska. After losing 56-7 at Indiana two weeks ago, Nebraska showed some great fight last week in nearly upsetting Ohio State in a 21-17 defeat as 25-point road dogs. I think that effort has them overvalued, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice. Their chances of winning the Big Ten are now crushed with three conference losses, and I just don't see them being nearly as motivated to face UCLA as they were to face Ohio State. Nebraska lost 31-24 (OT) at home to Illinois as 9.5-point favorites and only beat Rutgers 14-7 as 7-point favorites in their last two home games. It's not as big of a home-field advantage as it is cracked up to be. The Huskers should not be 7-point home favorites against UCLA here. There is expected to be rain and wind in this game, which will keep scoring suppressed, which also means that each point is worth more so getting +7 is a nice value. The Huskers have cluster injuries in the secondary that UCLA QB Ethan Garbers should be able to take advantage of. The Bruins have one of the best defensive lines in the country, allowing just 98.6 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season. That's really impressive when you consider their strength of schedule. They will stop Nebraska's suspect rushing attack, which averages 126.4 yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. UCLA's ability to compete with Nebraska in the trenches is a big reason they get the cover here and possibly win outright. Bet UCLA Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Florida +17 v. Georgia | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 114 h 23 m | Show |
20* Florida/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Florida +17 Everyone threw Billy Napier under the bus after losing to Miami in the opener. It turns out Miami is one of the best teams in all of college football still unbeaten on the season. The Gators have been undervalued since, especially in recent weeks, and I like what I've seen from this team in their last few games. I think they can hang with Georgia in 'The World's Largest Cocktail Party' Saturday as a result. Florida is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games. It started with a 45-28 win at Mississippi State in which the Gators racked up 503 total yards. They came back from their bye week and topped UCF 24-13 as 1-point home dogs. They held a high-powered UCF offense to just 273 total yards. They lost 23-17 (OT) as 14-point dogs at Tennessee and deserved to win that game. They outgained the Vols 361 to 312 for the game, again shutting down another high-powered offense defensively. The Gators were impressive last time out not letting that loss to Tennessee beat them twice. They responded with their most complete performance of the season, crushing Kentucky 48-20 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining them 476 to 309 for the game. Freshman sensation DJ Lagway took over at QB for good against Kentucky and threw for 259 yards on only 14 attempts, while also rushing for 46 yards on 10 carries. He gives them a dual-threat option that Georgia will have to prepare for. The Bulldogs did not handle their games against other dual-threat QB's well this season, losing outright to Alabama and failing to cover against Auburn. I think this line is inflated because Georgia won outright 30-15 at Texas in their last game to hand the Longhorns their lone loss this season. They were 'fat and happy' going into their bye week after making that statement. But keep in mind Georgia was 0-5 ATS in its previous five games consistently overvalued week after week. And the Bulldogs are back to being overvalued this week as 17-point favorites against a feisty Gators team. Bet Florida Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | North Carolina -130 v. Florida State | Top | 35-11 | Win | 100 | 62 h 59 m | Show |
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina ML -130 The UNC Tar Heels received a much-needed bye two weeks ago. They entered on a four-game losing streak with several close losses to Georgia Tech, Pitt and Duke. They could have easily packed it in, instead they responded with their best performance of the season coming out of their bye, and I like the outlook of this team moving forward. North Carolina crushed Virginia 41-14 as 3.5-point road underdogs last week. They racked up 428 total yards and held the Cavaliers to just 288 total yards, outgaining them by 140 yards. I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tar Heels, who are 4-4 SU and 1-6-1 ATS through eight games this season. The Florida State Seminoles are in the midst of a lost season sitting at 1-7 SU and their lone win was a fluky one against California in which they were outgained 404 to 284 for the game. The market just cannot adjust for how poor this team is this season going from undefeated last year to now 1-7 this year. I question how much they care about finishing this season strong. I think Florida State's 'all in' effort came last week against rival Miami and they came up short, losing 36-14 only after scoring a meaningless TD in garbage time in the final seconds. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat UNC as they were to beat Miami. If anything, they'll be looking ahead to their matchup with another playoff contender in Notre Dame next week. That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them. Florida State's offense is abysmal as they have tried three different quarterbacks and all have struggled. Uiagelelei completed just 53.8% of his passes, Glenn 45.1% and Kromenhoek 42.9%. There's just no answer on their roster. The Seminoles rank 133rd in scoring at 14.9 points per game, 131st in total offense at 272.5 yards per game and 129th at 4.5 yards per play. UNC has another great QB in Jacolby Criswell, who has a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio since taking over and is getting better with each passing game. Omarion Hampton has already rushed for 1,006 yards and 5.6 per carry this season and is one of the best backs in the country. UNC has far and away the superior offense, ranking 30th in scoring at 33.9 points per game and 28th in total offense at 442.4 yards per game. FSU only has a slight edge defensively, but it's not enough to overcome the huge advantage the Tar Heels have on offense. I think the Tar Heels are in the much better frame of mind fighting for a bowl, are the healthier, more rested and more motivated team, and they should be bigger favorites this weekend as a result. Bet North Carolina on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Tulsa v. UAB OVER 57 | Top | 21-59 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tulsa/UAB OVER 57 Two fast-paced offenses square off Saturday when Tulsa travels to UAB for this AAC showdown. UAB ranks 25th in tempo at 24.1 seconds between snaps while Tulsa ranks 30th. Both offenses should have plenty of success against two of the worst defenses in the country in this one. UAB ranks 129th in scoring defense allowing 37.6 points per game. The Blazers have allowed at least 32 points in six consecutive games now. They even allowed 32 points to a poor ULM offense and 35 points to a USF offense that was starting a backup QB last time out. Tulsa ranks 122nd in scoring defense allowing 35.9 points per game. The Golden Hurricane have allowed at least 45 points in four of their last six games. They were in a wild 46-45 shootout last week with UTSA, and I expect more of the same here against this UAB team coming off a bye week that should be much sharper offensively this week with several new wrinkles for them. The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday afternoon with temps in the 70's, light winds and zero rain. These are two teams with not much to play for the rest of the way, and these are the type of games I like to bet OVERS in with the care-free attitude both teams will take to the field. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Vanderbilt v. Auburn -6.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -109 | 112 h 40 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Auburn -6.5 I've backed Auburn with success in recent weeks and I'm back on them again this week. They are exactly the type of team I like to back. They are much better than their 3-5 record would indicate when you dig into their numbers, and because of their poor record they remain undervalued. Auburn is averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.9 yards per play on defense. The Tigers are outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the entire country. It's the sign of a team that would be 6-2 or better instead of one that is 3-5 like Auburn. But the Tigers got a much-needed bye three weeks ago after covering in an 18-point loss at Georgia as 21-point closing dogs. They returned from their bye and gave Missouri all they wanted in a 21-17 road loss as closing 3.5-point dogs, which I had them at +4.5 earlier in the week and got the cover. They were the right side the entire game as they led 17-6 in the 4th quarter before giving up 15 unanswered points. Auburn took out its frustration last week in a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky as 2-point underdogs. This was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed as Auburn racked up 500 total yards on a very good Kentucky defense while giving up just 224 yards, outgaining the Wildcats by nearly 300 yards for the game. While I'm 'buying low' on Auburn because of its poor SU record, I'm 'selling high' on Vanderbilt after a surprising 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season. This has been one of the best Vanderbilt teams in recent memory and it's mostly due to getting New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia at quarterback. But the Commodores are running on fumes right now and so is Pavia. They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and each of their last six games have all gone down to the wire, so they have had no breaks. They lost by 4 to Georgia State, lost by 3 at Missouri, won by 5 over Alabama, won by 7 over Kentucky, won by 10 over Ball State and lost by 3 to Texas. Vanderbilt was 'all in' last week trying to upset Texas at home. It was a 27-24 final as 17-point dogs, but this game was much more of a blowout than the final score showed. Texas outgained Vanderbilt 392 to 269, or by 123 total yards. And the Commodores got a big chunk of those yards on their final drive scoring what was basically a meaningless TD in the final seconds to make a 10-point game a 3-point game. Pavia got injured during the game and actually had to come out before returning. I just don't know how much he has left in the tank, and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses part of this game either. The Commodores won't be nearly as motivated to beat Auburn as they were to beat Texas last week, and this looks like the ultimate flat spot for them. I expect Auburn to take control early and to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. Auburn is a physical running team averaging 5.2 yards per carry with the zone read. The Commodores won't be able to match their physicality, especially since they are playing for a 5th consecutive week after going through a gauntlet. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Northwestern v. Purdue +100 | 26-20 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 24 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue ML +100 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Purdue Boilermakers this week. They are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS on the season and the betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now. But I've seen some 'buy signs' in their last two games, and I love the fact that they are rested and ready to go coming off a much-needed bye week. Purdue played six straight games going into their bye week. Two games ago, they took Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 loss. In their last game going into the bye, they lost 35-0 to Oregon, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. They were only outgained by 120 yards by the Ducks, but they just kept coming up short time and time again in Oregon territory. After a brutal six-game schedule of Notre Dame, Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon, the Boilermakers finally get to take a big step down in class here against Northwestern. While the Boilermakers are fresh and much healthier off their bye week, they face a tired, banged-up Northwestern team playing for a 5th consecutive week. The Wildcats showed signs of wearing down in their last two games losing 23-3 at home to Wisconsin and 40-14 at Iowa. They scored both of their touchdowns against Iowa on defense and special teams. They only managed 163 total yards against Iowa and 209 total yards against Wisconsin. They have one of the worst offenses in the country. They rank 123rd in scoring offense at 18.4 points per game and 132nd in total offense at 271.1 yards per game. Bet Purdue on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-02-24 | Stanford v. NC State -9.5 | 28-59 | Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State -9.5 This is a good time to 'buy low' on NC State after starting 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season. The Wolfpack had a bye last week to regroup and make a push to make a bowl game. I fully expect them to come out of their bye week playing their best football of the season. The Wolfpack have shown 'buy' signs in their last two games, and they desperately needed a bye after playing eight consecutive weeks to start the season without a bye. That tough schedule was a big reason for their struggles. Two games ago, the Wolfpack lost 24-17 at home to Syracuse. But that was a hugely misleading final as the Wolfpack were -3 in turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Freshman QB CJ Bailey played great, completing 17-of-24 passes for 329 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Bailey backed it up last time out, completing 25-of-36 passes for 306 yards and 2 TD without an INT in a 24-23 comeback victory at California as 9-point dogs. That was a very good Cal defense he shredded, and now Bailey and company take a big step down in class this week against Stanford. Now Stanford is the team that that's tired and beat up right now. The Cardinal will be playing for a 7th consecutive week. Not to mention, they had cross country trips to Syracuse, Clemson and Notre Dame during this stretch, and now they have to fly back across country again here to face a rested, motivated NC State squad. I don't expect it to go well for them. Stanford is 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has rarely even been competitive. They lost by 26 at Clemson, by 24 at home to Virginia Tech, by 42 at Notre Dame and by 30 at home to SMU. The only game they were competitive in came last week at home in a 3-point loss to Wake Forest. But they were outgained by 72 yards by the Demon Deacons, who are one of the worst teams in the ACC. The spot really favors a blowout by the rested, motivated Wolfpack at home here. Bet NC State Saturday. |
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11-01-24 | San Diego State +23.5 v. Boise State | Top | 24-56 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
20* San Diego State/Boise State FS1 No-Brainer on San Diego State +23.5 The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of love now after a 6-1 start and are the favorites to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff. With that hype comes expectations that are very tough to live up to, and I'll gladly fade them in this spot catching 23.5 points with the San Diego State Aztecs Friday night. The Broncos are coming off their biggest game of the year. They escaped with a 29-24 win at UNLV last week in what was essentially an elimination game for the 12-team playoff. I think they breathe a sigh of relief, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Diego State this week, let alone beat them by 24-plus points. San Diego State is improving rapidly under first-year head coach Sean Lewis. He led the turnaround at Kent State and that program has been dreadful since he left. The Aztecs were competitive in each of their last four games losing by 1 at Central Michigan, beating Hawaii by 3, beating Wyoming by 3 and only losing by 3 to Washington State. That 3-point loss to Washington State last week off their bye week was most impressive. They actually led 26-14 in the 4th quarter against a very good Cougars team. They outgained them 414 to 371 for the game, or by 43 total yards. They won't have any problem getting back up off the mat to face a ranked Boise State team this week. There is expected to be some weather here with a 60% chance of rain and 15 MPH winds in Boise Friday night. The tougher scoring conditions makes each point worth more, and thus it will make it much harder for the Broncos to get margin. They have just two wins by more than 21 points this season and they came against Utah State and FCS Portland State. I think they'll get more of a fight from the Aztecs than they bargained for in this one. Bet San Diego State Friday. |
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10-31-24 | Texans v. Jets -115 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 30 m | Show |
20* Texans/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York PK The New York Jets (2-6) are favored over the Houston Texans (6-2) despite being four games back of them. I agree with them being favored because these teams could easily have their records reversed when you dive into it. The Jets aren't nearly as bad as their 2-6 record would indicate. Their kicker cost them three games and they should be 5-3 at minimum. That's why they are changing kickers this week. Four of their five losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer. The Texans are 6-2 this season, but five of their six wins came by 6 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer. Their lone blowout win came against the lowly New England Patriots. They have one of the best kickers in the league, which has been a big difference for them. While the Jets are pretty healthy right now, the Texans have major injury concerns especially on offense. They were already without Nico Collins, and now they are going to be without Stephon Diggs who suffered a torn ACL against the Colts last week. Those two have combined for 79 receptions for 1,063 yards and 6 TD this season and both will be sorely missed. Fellow WR Tank Dell isn't fully healthy either, and he is really their last proven weapon on the outside. The Texans are 6-12 SU in games where Nico Collins has received one or fewer targets. CJ Stroud has looked lost without him the last few weeks. He is averaging just 187.7 passing yards per game in his last three games despite getting to face the Patriots, Colts and Packers. Now he'll be up against one of the best pass defenses he has faced this season. The Jets rank 4th in total defense at 286.9 yards per game, 2nd at 4.9 yards per play and 2nd against the pass allowing just 161.1 passing yards per game. With a defense that elite, it just goes to show how unfortunate the Jets are to be 2-6 this season. Their offense should be even better moving forward as they implement Devante Adams into the scheme. Aaron Rodgers just has too many weapons to be held down for too long. I expect him and the Jets to get right this week. Their best performance of the season also came on Thursday Night Football with a 24-3 home win over the Patriots. This will be the first Thursday Night game for the Texans under DeMeco Ryans, and coaches in this situation for the first time have notoriously struggled. Plus it's a long trip from Houston to New York on the short week to boot. The Texans are 'fat and happy' right now after beating the Colts for a second time this season last week, giving them a commanding lead in the awful AFC South division. The Jets are pissed off and will be playing with their hair on fire this week as they try and save their season. Bet the Jets on the Money Line Thursday. |
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10-31-24 | Tulane v. Charlotte +15 | 34-3 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
15* Tulane/Charlotte ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte +15 The Charlotte 49ers had a bye three weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season. They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week. They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17. But that was a very misleading final against Navy. Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD. The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards. Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards. That misleading final was a big reason I backed Charlotte last week as 17-point closing dogs at Memphis. The 49ers gave the Tigers all they wanted in a 33-28 loss. Memphis is just as good as Tulane, and now the 49ers are catching 15 points at home to the Green Wave this week. This value is too good to pass up again. I think it's a tough spot for Tulane, and I haven't been all that impressed with the Green Wave in their last couple games. Two weeks ago they only beat Rice 24-10 as 22.5-point home favorites. Last week they were fortunate to cover in a 45-37 win at North Texas as 7-point favorites. They allowed 525 total yards to the Mean Green, and now they are on a short week here and their defense is gassed. Not to mention there is a lot of travel involved having to return home from Dallas and now flying out to Charlotte, going clear across the country from Saturday to Thursday. They also just clinched bowl eligibility getting to 6-2 this season, so this could be a flat spot for them. Either way, the 49ers are good enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Green Wave. Bet Charlotte Thursday. |
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10-30-24 | Jacksonville State +2.5 v. Liberty | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State +2.5 Jacksonville State is a juggernaut right now. The Gamecocks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while outscoring their opponents 203 to 64 in those four games. They have covered the spread by a combined 74.5 points in those four games. Now the Gamecocks come back as underdogs to Liberty tonight, and the wrong team is favored in this game. Liberty is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS and very fortunate to be 5-1 SU. The Flames came into the season as a popular pick to be the Group of 5 team to make the 12-team playoff. With those expectations come inflated lines that have clearly been tough for them to live up to. The Flames escaped with a 30-24 win at New Mexico State as a 22-point favorite, needed a double-digit comeback to beat East Carolina, only beat FIU 31-24 as 16-point favorites, and also struggled to put away both UTEP and Campbell by margin. It all caught up to the Flames last week as they lost outright 27-24 to Kennesaw State as 26.5-point favorites. Kennesaw State is widely considered the worst team in FBS as a first-year member this season. They previously hadn't won a single game this season before beating Liberty. Now with their playoff hopes dashed, I think it's the type of loss that came beat the Flames twice. I don't expect them to show up this week against Jacksonville State. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks want revenge from a 31-13 loss to the Flames last season and won't have any problem showing up. Plus they want to win the conference and are very live to do it. New Mexico State and Kennesaw State are two common opponents of these teams. Jacksonville State outscored those two teams 117-37, while Liberty only outscored those two teams 54-51. Those results against common opponents show that the Gamecocks are the much superior team this season. Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday. |
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10-29-24 | New Mexico State +9.5 v. Florida International | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
15* CFB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +9.5 New Mexico State has a big rest advantage in this game tonight which is a big reason I'm willing to back one of the worst teams in college football. They are coming off a bye week and last played on October 15th. I've been impressed with some performances by the Aggies this season, not the least of which was their 33-30 win as 12-point dogs to Louisiana Tech last time out. They also took New Mexico to the wire in a 50-40 defeat, and they should have beaten Liberty letting them off the hook late in a 30-24 defeat as 22-point dogs. Florida International will be playing for a 4th straight week and will be playing their 3rd game in 14 days. It has been an ugly look for the Panthers, who have lost three in a row including a 30-21 loss as 7-point favorites at UTEP, handing the Miners their lone win this season. They also lost to Sam Houston State at home last week, and the Bearkats were without starting QB Hunter Watson. Sitting at 2-6 on the season, I question how much the Panthers will be motivated to finish out this season. Their bowl hopes are pretty much shot not. I don't see them getting up to face New Mexico State tonight. This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 43.5 and heavy winds in the forecast. Getting nearly double-digits in low-scoring games is nice value as it is. New Mexico State is the better rushing team averaging 162 rushing yards per game. FIU allows 194 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. FIU only averages 104 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry offensively. Bet New Mexico State Tuesday. |
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10-28-24 | Giants +6 v. Steelers | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 30 m | Show |
20* Giants/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on New York +6 The New York Giants have been a much better road team than a home team for years and that continues to be the case this season. I don't know if they can't handle the pressure of the New York media, or they obviously don't enjoy getting boo'd by there home fans, but there's clearly something to it. While the Giants are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, they are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road. They lost 21-18 at Washington as 1-point dogs only because they lost their FG kicker to an injury and had to go for 2 on all three of their touchdowns, failing each time. They won 21-15 as 6.5-point dogs at Cleveland and they pulled the 29-20 upset as 7-point dogs at Seattle in their last road game. Now we get the Giants in a similar price range here as 6-point road dogs at Pittsburgh. While it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants off their embarrassing 28-3 home loss to the Eagles last week, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Steelers off their 37-15 win over the Jets on Sunday Night Football last week. The Steelers go from being just 3.5-point favorites on the lookahead line to 6-point favorites now after what happened last week. Everyone saw the Steelers crush the Jets on Sunday Night Football, so the betting public is hammering the Steelers hand over fist so far this week. But that was a misleading 37-15 win over the Jets to say the least. The Steelers only outgained the Jets 6.2 to 5.9 yards per play. Aaron Rodgers had two costly interceptions, including a fluky one that bounce off of WR Garrett Wilson. The Steelers got all the bounces in that game, and I don't believe that will happen again. The Giants got great injury news with their two best pass rushers in NT Dexter Lawrence II and LB Brian Burns expected to play this week. They are basically fully healthy on defense, and they are fully healthy on offense as well with the exception of LT Andrew Thomas. Brian Daboll will scheme up a way to protect Daniel Jones from TJ Watt, plus Jones' mobility will be very useful. The Steelers will be starting C Zach Frazier and his backup Nate Herbig. Injuries to the center position are consistently not taken into account enough in terms of the line. They are without NT Montravius Adams, NB Cameron Sutton and two backup LB's in Tyler Matakevich and Nick Herbig as well defensively. Last week Russell Wilson was kept clean, but his immobility will be tested this week. The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with 31 and it is the strength of their team. Daniel Jones is 18-7 ATS in his last 25 starts as a road underdog. Bet the Giants Monday. |
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10-27-24 | Cowboys +5.5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 27 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +5.5 I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week. They will be pissed off from their 47-9 home loss to the Detroit Lions who were off a bye and out for revenge last time out. Now it's the Cowboys who will be pissed off, out for revenge and off a bye this week. The Cowboys have had this game circled all offseason after losing each of their last three meetings with the 49ers including two in the playoffs. But now it's the Cowboys who will be a lot healthier coming out of their bye, while the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries. This 49ers lost their best receiver in Brandon Aiyuk to a season-ending injury last week in their 28-18 loss to the Chiefs. Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were hurt against the Chiefs as well and both are highly questionable to play in this game. They were already without WR JuJuan Jennings and remain without him this week. It's safe to say Brock Purdy's options are receiver are limited, and it helps explain his recent struggles after throwing 3 INT's to the Chiefs last week. The 49ers had to face the Chiefs off their bye and now they have to face the Cowboys off their bye. Schedule makers have done them no favors. The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in road games with a 33-17 win at Cleveland, a 20-15 win at New York and a 20-17 win at Pittsburgh. That win at Pittsburgh two games ago looks even better now, and it also came on Sunday Night Football. I expect them to give the 49ers a run for their money tonight. Bet the Cowboys Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Panthers v. Broncos -9.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Denver Broncos -9.5 I locked in the Broncos -9.5 as soon as I found out Bryce Young would be starting for the Panthers this week. You can still find a -9.5 at Circa, but I would still play this up to -10. I hate laying big numbers in the NFL, but this has blowout written all over it. I was on the Broncos last week when they blasted the Saints 33-10 on Thursday night football. That one looked obvious with all the injuries to the Saints, but the line still only closed Broncos -2.5. This one looks obvious as well, but sometimes the obvious wins in the NFL. The Panthers are the dregs of the NFL. They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS with all six losses coming by double-digits. But that doesn't even begin to explain how bad this team has been. They are 28th in scoring offense at 15.7 points per game and 32nd in scoring defense at 34.7 points per game. They are getting outscored by 19 points per game on the season. Their offense was at least respectable with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but it has no shot of succeeding with Bryce Young. We saw that in the first two games of the season as the Panthers were outscored 73-13 with Young at quarterback. Dalton suffered an injured thumb in a car accident this week and that's the only reason Young is starting. But this Carolina defense is equally as bad as the offense. The Panthers have allowed 34 or more points in four consecutive games and an average of 37 points per game. It was really bad last week because the Commanders kept piling on the points with Marcus Mariota at quarterback once Jayden Daniels left with an injury. The amount of players lost to injury on this Carolina defense is like nothing I've ever seen before in the NFL. They have 8 players on IR, 2 players out, and another 7 players questionable. That's 17 defenders on the injury report with 10 of them for sure out. It's easy to see why this Carolina defense has been one of the worst we've ever seen. Bo Nix has been at his best this season when the ground game is working and he can use his mobility on play-action. The Broncos rushed for 225 yards on the Saints last week, and they are going to get 200-plus against the Panthers this week as well so they should be able to continue piling on the points in the 2H. Carolina ranks dead last against the run allowing 162.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. While Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Denver has one of the best. The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 15.1 points per game, 3rd in total defense allowing 282.4 yards per game and 1st allowing 4.7 yards per play. They also get Patrick Surtain II back from a concussion this week, and he is arguably the top corner in the entire NFL. Carolina will be missing WR Diontae Johnson, WR Adam Thielen and RB Jonathan Brooks on offense due to injury. Denver also has the rest advantage after playing last Thursday, so they should be fresh and ready to go. I don't foresee them having a letdown this week, which is what it would take for them to not win by double-digits. Even then it still might not be enough. The Panthers are hot garbage with Bryce Young at quarterback. Bet the Broncos Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Bills v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 61 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Bills/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47 The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER ticket between the Bills and Seahawks Sunday afternoon. There is a 99% chance of rain with 17 MPH sustained winds in Seattle and gusts up to 35 MPH. Points are going to be very hard to come by for these two teams. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 19.4 points per game. Their job is going to be much easier this week not having to deal with Seattle's best weapon in DK Metcalf, who suffered a knee injury against the Falcons last week and is doubtful to play this week. Seattle also has a banged-up offensive line and one of the worst units in the NFL. What makes me really like this UNDER is the improvement of this Seattle defensive under head coach Mike McDonald, the former Ravens' defensive coordinator. There were a banged up unit for much of the season, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season. CB Riq Woolen makes his return this week, and CB Tre Brown is trending toward playing as well. They traded for LB Ernest Jones IV last week as well. We saw the Seahawks come up big in limiting the Falcons to 14 points last week indoors. They forced three turnovers and they make Kirk Cousins look very average as he had one of his worst games of the season after previously lighting it up for multiple weeks. McDonald will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Josh Allen, who had his worst game of the season scoring just 10 points against Baltimore earlier this season, which is a amateur version of McDonald's scheme. This total is simply too high for this forecast and these two average offenses up against these two improving defenses. This has all the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Packers v. Jaguars OVER 48.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 60 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Packers OVER 48.5 The Green Bay Packers have taken off offensively since Jordan Love returned to the lineup. They rank 7th in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 6th in total offense at 383.1 yards per game and 6th at 6.2 yards per play. They are fully healthy on offense right now. The Packers should name their number against an awful Jacksonville defense that ranks 30th in scoring at 27.7 points per game, 27th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play. The Jaguars have been going heavy man-to-man defense this season and they just don't have the right pieces. Love is going to torch their man-to-man scheme with all of his weapons. Jacksonville has been respectable on offense this season ranking 13th at 5.8 yards per play and 16th at 325.9 yards per game. But they haven't been fully healthy until now as they have both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis back. They combine with rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Christian Kirk to form one of the best set of weapons in the entire NFL. The Jaguars are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because the Packers are going to get their points. Green Bay could be without two starters in LB Quay Walker (concussion) and DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle), who are both questionable. Either way, conditions are perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no run, and I think that's precisely what we get. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Cardinals v. Dolphins OVER 45.5 | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 60 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cardinals/Dolphins OVER 45.5 This Miami offense has been atrocious with backup QB's Huntley, Thompson and Boyle trying to fill the massive shoes left by Tua Tagovailoa. But now Tagovailoa returns to what is a fully healthy Miami offense this week, and the Dolphins are now primed for their best offensive performance of the season. This total is suppressed due to the Dolphins going under the total in five of their six games this season. To that point, the total is also suppressed due to the Cardinals going 2-0-1 to the under in their last three games as well. We'll take advantage and back the OVER. The Dolphins will have their best offensive output of the season against an Arizona defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.4 points per game, 28th in total defense at 376.4 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play. They just lost their best pass-rusher to injury last week, have four defensive linemen on IR now, plus DT Ray Lopez has been ruled out. The Dolphins will win the battle at the line of scrimmage, and starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting is out as well. I don't think this Miami defense is as good as the numbers show. The Dolphins have benefited from getting to face Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett and Anthony Richardson in their last three games. This is a big step up in class for them having to face the electric Kyler Murray and a very healthy Arizona offense. The Cardinals rank 11th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play. Plus, the Dolphins suffered a blow in practice this week when starting DE Zach Sieler suffered a fractured orbital bone and may need surgery. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Colts +6.5 v. Texans | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 32 m | Show |
20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +6.5 The Indianapolis Colts have quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS this season as the best covering team in the NFL. All three of their losses came by 6 points or less, and all four of their wins came by 6 points or less as well. They just have a knack for playing in close games. The same can be said for the Houston Texans, who are 5-2 SU this season with five of their seven games being decided by 6 points or less. They were blown out 34-7 at Minnesota and the blew out New England 41-21 in Drake Maye's first career start. The Colts have played this well despite being one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL. But they are now about as healthy as they have been all season, and they get two of their best players back from injury this week. RB Jonathan Taylor is back on offense while DT DeForest Buckner returns from IR. Those two are huge for this team. Speaking of injury-ravaged, the Texans are without two key defensive starters in LB Azeez Al-Shaiir and S Jimmie Ward, plus LB Henry To'oTo'o is questionable after missing last week. But the biggest blow is on offense, where top receiver Nico Collins remains out. Collins is far and away CJ Stroud's favorite target, and their offensive success has been night and day with him on or off the field in Stroud's career. In fact, the Texans are just 5-12 SU in their 17 games in which Collins has received one target or fewer. Stroud looked lost without him last week, throwing for just 86 yards on 21 attempts against the Packers. The Texans were +3 in turnovers and still lost that game 24-22 to the Packers. The Colts want revenge not only from their 23-19 loss to the Texans in Week 18 last year that kept them out of the playoffs, but also their 29-27 loss to the Texans in Week 1 this season. This has been a closely-contested series that the Colts have actually dominated. In fact, the Colts haven't lost by more than 6 points to the Texans in any of their last 25 meetings! That makes for a 25-0 system backing the Colts pertaining to this 6.5-point spread. This one will go down to the wire as well, and Indianapolis is a very live underdog this week. Bet the Colts Sunday. |
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10-27-24 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 60 h 3 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Ravens/Browns OVER 44.5 The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL and it's not even closer. They rank 1st in total offense at 461.4 yards per game and 1st at 7.4 yards per play. They are also 2nd in scoring at 31.1 points per game. They are going to get their 30-plus, and the Browns are primed for their best offensive performance of the season to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout Sunday. The Browns have been held to 20 points or fewer in every game this season. Just when their offensive line started to get healthy, QB Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending injury last week. Then QB Dorian-Thompson Robinson got hurt, and third-string QB Jameis Winston led them on a TD drive to cut the deficit to 21-14 against the Bengals. The fans and the media have been calling for Winston all season. We saw what the Browns did last year with Joe Flacco earning Comeback Player of the Year by leading them to the playoffs after Watson got hurt. I think Winston is capable of following in Flacco's footsteps. He has a lot of boom or bust to him like Flacco, and he is great at stretching the field and testing all areas of an opposing defense. This Cleveland offense has only one way to go which is up. It looks like they should have four of their five starting offensive linemen healthy, which hasn't been the case all season. RB Nick Chubb just returned from injury last week and should get more reps this week. Defensive injuries are a big part of the story here too. The Browns will be wihtout MLB Jordan Hicks. The Ravens are likely to be without their best CB Marlon Humphrey, who suffered a knee injury last week against the Bucs. Fellow starting CB Nate Wiggins is questionable, as is his backup in CB Jalyn Armous-Davis. DT Travis Jones is questionable as well. The biggest weakness of this entire Baltimore defense is their secondary as you can pass on them, which makes this a great matchup for Winston and company. The Ravens rank dead last in the NFL allowing 287.1 passing yards per game and 28th at 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They are going to be even worse without Humphrey this week. The OVER is 6-1 in Ravens seven games this season with 45 or more combined points in all seven, making for a 7-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 44.5-point total. This total is too low for a game involving the Ravens. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-26-24 | San Jose State +5.5 v. Fresno State | 10-33 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 4 m | Show | |
15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5 San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Spartans are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by 7 at Colorado State and by 2 at Washington State. That's how close they are to being 7-0. Just looking at the numbers it's easy to see San Jose State is a better team than Fresno State. The Spartans rank 35th in scoring at 32.1 points per game, 50th at 427.7 yards per game and 51st at 6.4 yards per play. They allow 24.4 points per game, 372.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play on the season. Fresno State averages 28.1 points per game, 375.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense. The Bulldogs allow 26.6 points per game, 343 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. They are only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per game and outgaining them by 0.5 yards per play. The Bulldogs are really trending in the wrong direction right now. They lost 59-14 at UNLV three weeks ago, came back and lost 25-17 at home to Washington State and then were fortunate to escape with a 24-21 win at Nevada when you consider the Wolf Pack lost their starting QB in that game to injury. Nevada and Washington State are common opponents of these two teams, and San Jose State played those two teams much better than Fresno State did. This line should be much closer to PK than 5.5. Bet San Jose State Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Kansas +10.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
20* Kansas/Kansas State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kansas +10.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas Jayhawks this week. They are just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS this season, but no team has had worse luck in close games than the Jayhawks. In fact, all five of their losses have come by 11 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer. Both wins came in blowout fashion 48-3 over Lindenwood and 42-14 over Houston. It's a great time to 'sell high' on Kansas State, which has gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. The Wildcats beat a bad Oklahoma State team 42-20, snuck by Colorado 31-28 on the road, and took down West Virginia 45-18 on the road thanks to several key injuries for the Mountaineers throughout that game. Kansas State has won 15 straight meetings with Kansas in this rivalry. No question the Jayhawks are looking at this as their 'National Championship' game, and they would make their season simply by winning this one game no matter what else happens. That's why it will be easy for them to put the poor start behind them and look ahead to this game, and they started that last week coming back from their bye to crush Houston 42-14 while racking up 467 total yards on what is a very good Cougars defense. Kansas came close to upsetting Kansas State last season losing 31-27 as 7-point home dogs. No question they believe they can hang with the Wildcats, and they should not be catching double-digits here Saturday. The Wildcats only have slightly better numbers than the Jayhawks this season, not numbers that warrant being a double-digit favorite. Bet Kansas Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | LSU v. Texas A&M -140 | Top | 23-38 | Win | 100 | 102 h 45 m | Show |
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas A&M ML -140 The LSU Tigers are starting to get too much respect after wins and covers against Ole Miss and Arkansas the last two weeks. They were in a great spot against Ole Miss coming off their bye while Ole Miss was tired and banged up, and they upset the Rebels at home in OT in a night game in Baton Rouge. Last week they went on the road as 3-point favorites and took down Arkansas by a final of 34-10. This was a very misleading final as the Tigers benefited from being +3 in turnovers with one that set up an easy TD for LSU and another that took points off the board for Arkansas. LSU only averaged 5.5 yards per play while Arkansas averaged 5.6 yards per play. That misleading final is providing us with excellent line value to fade the Tigers this week. Couple that with the fact that Texas A&M failed to cover last week against a pesky Mississippi State team, and we have great line value to back the Aggies this week. Texas A&M beat Mississippi State 34-24 as 21-point road favorites last week. That's the same Mississippi State team that took Georgia to the wire on the road the previous week. The Bulldogs are quickly becoming one of the most undervalued teams in the country since they made the switch at quarterback. Texas A&M handed Missouri its lone loss of the season the game prior winning 41-10 as 2.5-point home favorites. Now back at home behind the 12th man and a night game in College Station, the Aggies will have one of the best home-field advantages in the country. It will be a very hostile atmosphere for LSU, which hasn't faced a road game this tough all season yet. Texas A&M has the better defense in this one holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play while LSU allows 5.8 yards per play. LSU has a slight advantage on offense averaging 6.5 yards per play compared to 6.2 for Texas A&M. The Aggies are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Tigers on the season. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings, so home-field advantage has been huge in this series. A night game in College Station is worth even more. I'll skip the spread and back the Aggies on the money line just to win outright. Bet Texas A&M on the Money Line Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 1 m | Show | |
15* Michigan State/Michigan BTN ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +5 The Michigan State Spartans went through the gauntlet to open the season playing for six consecutive weeks that concluded with two games against two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and Oregon. It's safe to say they needed their bye week to get healthy and regroup two weeks ago. The Spartans came out of their bye and looked like a new team in a 32-20 upset home win over Iowa as 6.5-point underdogs. I backed the Spartans in that game, and it was as easy as it gets. The only reason it stayed close was because the Spartans settled for seven field goals, making six of them. They outgained Iowa 468 to 283 for the game, or by 185 total yards. Gaining 468 yards on that Iowa defense is no small feat. A big reason I was on the Spartans in that game was because they are elite against the run, and Iowa can only run the football. The same can be said for Michigan, which relies heavily on the run like Iowa to move the football. The Wolverines average 180 rushing yards per game compared to just 128 passing yards per game. Well, Michigan State allows just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which is impressive when you consider they have had to play Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa in consecutive weeks. Michigan is 4-3 SU but 1-6 ATS this season and continues to get too much respect from the books on a weekly basis. The Wolverines were 5-point favorites at Illinois last week, and they got upset 21-7 by the Fighting Illini. They weren't impressive in any of their four wins, and two game by exactly 3 points at home over USC and Minnesota. The other two were also at home against Arkansas State by 10 and Fresno State by 20, and that Fresno State game was a lot closer than the final score. The three losses all came by double-digits by 14 at Illinois, by 10 at Washington and by 19 at home to Texas. So the Wolverines have actually been outscored on the season by 7 points total. This team just isn't very good, and they should not be laying more than a FG at home to the Spartans. Bet Michigan State Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Texas Tech v. TCU OVER 66 | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 97 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Texas Tech/TCU FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 66 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday in Big 12 play when the Texas Tech Red Raiders visit the TCU Horned Frogs. Both offenses have embraced playing fast as TCU ranks 15th in tempo while Texas Tech ranks 24th. There will be more possessions in this game and more points as a result. Texas Tech is coming off a 59-35 loss to Baylor in which conditions weren't great for scoring as it was very windy with a total of just 56.5. They allowed a whopping 629 total yards to the Bears. Three games ago they were in a 44-41 shootout with Cincinnati that saw 85 combined points. I think TCU's result last week against Utah is keeping this total lower than it should be. The Utes have no offense right now with all their injuries, and they play very slow. They beat Utah 13-7 on the road last week. This came a week after a game against a similar Houston team with no offense that stays under the total. When TCU has faced another offense on Texas Tech's level, they have been in high-scoring games. Their previous three games all went OVER the total with a 38-27 win at Kansas and 65 combined points, a 66-42 loss at SMU and 108 combined points and a 35-34 loss to UCF and 69 combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor OVER 64.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 64.5 Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team that runs a fast-paced offense and plays zero defense. The Cowboys rank 9th in the country in tempo with 22.7 seconds between snaps on offense. They rank 130th in total defense allowing a whopping 490.6 yards per game. In their last three games the Cowboys allowed 42 points to Kansas State, 38 points to West Virginia and 38 to BYU. Now they are facing a revived Baylor offense that just put up 59 points and 629 total yard on Texas Tech last week. The OVER is 4-0 in Baylor's last four games overall combining for 69 points with Colorado, 62 with BYU, 64 with Iowa State and 94 with Texas Tech. They allowed 35 to Texas Tech, 43 to Iowa State, 34 to BYU and 38 to Colorado, so they have a very poor defense like Oklahoma State. Baylor also plays fast ranking 11th in tempo at 23.0 seconds between snaps, so there will be a ton of possessions in this game with the Cowboys 9th in tempo. Neither team can be expected to get many stops in this one. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, 5 MPH winds and zero precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Northwestern +14 v. Iowa | 14-40 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Northwestern +14 The Iowa Hawkeyes have a terrible offense once again this season and have no business laying two touchdowns to the Northwestern Wildcats. The Hawkeyes are a one-dimensional running team that averages just 136.9 passing yards per game. A big reason I faded Iowa last week with Michigan State is because they were very good against the run, and they beat Iowa 32-20 and shut down their running game. Well, Northwestern has a similar profile. The Wildcats rank 21st in the country against the run allowing 103.4 rushing yards per game and 19th at 3.2 yards per carry allowed. They will force Iowa to try and beat them through the air, and I don't think they're capable. Northwestern just upset Maryland 37-10 as 10.5-point road underdogs in their last road game. They have been a great bet a road underdog for years. They have no home-field advantage so they are consistently overvalued at home, but on the road it's the complete opposite. This has been a closely-contested series with six of the last eight meetings decided by 7 points or less. The Hawkeyes allowed 468 total yards to a very suspect Michigan State offense last week. I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to stay within this inflated number while shutting down Iowa's offense as well. Bet Northwestern Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Illinois +21.5 v. Oregon | 9-38 | Loss | -109 | 92 h 9 m | Show | |
15* Illinois/Oregon CBS ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +21.5 The Illinois Fighting Illini are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS this season. This despite facing four ranked teams at the time they played them. They are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football and should not be catching more than 3 touchdowns to Oregon this week. Illinois upset Kansas at home, upset Nebraska on the road and upset Michigan at home. The Fighting Illini were tied 7-7 with Penn State on the road midway through the 3rd quarter before eventually losing 21-7 as 19-point underdogs in their lone defeat. They won't be intimated by Oregon, and they won't go down easily. One of the best-kept secrets in the country is the play of Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, who has an absurd 15-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season. Bret Bielema has clearly gotten the message to him that if he doesn't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone. He also has two stud receivers in Bryant and Franklin who have combined for 61 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TD this season. While the offense doesn't beat itself, the defense is once again the strength as the Fighting Illini rank 26th in the country in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed despite the tough schedule. I think they'll be able to hold Oregon in check on Saturday to stay within this inflated number. Oregon has been held to 37 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season, and they only have two wins by more than 21 points, which came against Purdue and Oregon State. That 35-0 win over Purdue last week was very misleading as they only outgained the Boilermakers by 121 yards. The Boilermakers simply could not do anything once they got into plus-territory. Oregon relies heavily on Dillon Gabriel and the short passing game to move the football as they only averaging 158 rushing yards per game this season. Well, the forecast is going to make it very difficult to throw the ball with a 90% chance of rain the entire game in Eugene Saturday afternoon. The forecast is going to keep scoring suppressed and it's going to favor the underdog catching 3 touchdowns. Bet Illinois Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Illinois v. Oregon UNDER 55 | 9-38 | Win | 100 | 92 h 9 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Oregon UNDER 55 The forecast is going to help us cash this UNDER 55 ticket between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Oregon Ducks. There is a 90% chance of rain during the entire game in Eugene. Both teams are going to run the football more than normal, which will keep the clock moving and limit explosive plays. Illinis is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is. The Fighting Illini rank 87th in tempo averaging 27.2 seconds in between snaps. The UNDER is 5-2 in all Illinois games this season with 45 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games. They rank 26th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 18.1 points per game. Oregon is also playing slower than average ranking 80th in the country in tempo at 27 seconds in between snaps. The Ducks only average 158 rushing yards per game compared to 300 passing, so their passing game will be limited by this rain. They are only averaging 4.5 yards per rush as well so that has been a weakness for their offense. This Oregon defense has been more impressive than the offense. Dan Lanning is a defensive guy so it makes sense. The Ducks rank 15th in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game allowed and 17th in total defense at 298 yards per game allowed. Illinois ranks 90th in total offense at 366 yards per game. The UNDER is 3-1 in Oregon's last four games overall with 35, 41 and 47 combined points on the three unders against Purdue, Michigan State and UCLA. The only game that went over was against Ohio State and their elite offense. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | BYU v. Central Florida OVER 55 | Top | 37-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 57 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on BYU/UCF OVER 55 UCF is a dead nuts OVER team. The OVER is 5-2 in all UCF games this season with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games. The Knights rank 23rd in tempo averaging 24.2 seconds between snaps. There are extra possessions in UCF games, and they will really try to ramp up the pace playing at home Saturday. BYU has also been a dead nuts OVER team this season. The Cougars are 5-2 OVER in all games. They are 3-0 OVER in their last three Big 12 games combining for 73 points with Oklahoma State, 60 points with Arizona and 62 points with Baylor. It should be more of the same here against UCF. BYU ranks 23rd in the country in scoring at 34.9 points per game. UCF ranks 48th at 31.3 points per game, but they are better than that because they are 14th in total offense at 465.6 yards per game and 23rd at 6.6 yards per play. You can run on this BYU defense, and the Knights will have success just like they did against Iowa State last week. The Knights racked up 35 points and 354 rushing yards on Iowa State. I like dual-threat QB Jacurri Brown, who has rushed for 176 yards on 25 carries while averaging 7.0 per carry in two starts this season. BYU just allowed 269 rushing yards to Oklahoma State last week, and that's a Cowboys team that could not run the football at all against anyone previously. The Cougars also have a dual-threat QB in Jake Retzlaff, who has a 16-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores while averaging 5.4 per carry. Both defensive coordinators will have their hands full this week. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation. This total should be set in the 60's. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 48.5 | 34-56 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show | |
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple/East Carolina OVER 48.5 The East Carolina Pirates are an absolute mess right now especially defensively. Their performances in their last two games are most concerning. They lost 55-24 at Charlotte two games ago while allowing 517 total yards including 311 rushing. Last week they trailed Army 38-7 in the 4th quarter before scoring 21 points in garbage time to make it a misleading final. They allowed another 295 rushing yards to Army. I question how much this ECU defense has left in the tank after giving up over 600 rushing yards and 100 points in their last two games. The Temple Owls have been a much better team with QB Evan Simon healthy and out there, which he was last week against Tulsa. Simon is completing 65% of his passes for 977 yards with a 10-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his four starts this season. I expect Simon to light up this East Carolina defense this week. East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team because they have such a soft defense, plus they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo offensively in the country at 21.0 seconds in between snaps. They should also have plenty of success offensively against a Temple defense that ranks 115th in scoring allowing 32.4 points per game. This total should be set in the 50's at a minimum, and we are getting a discount here on OVER 48.5. The last time these two teams faced off we saw 95 combined points and over 1,100 total yards combined between them. East Carolina would be 4-0 OVER in their last four games with a total this low combining for 73 points with Army, 79 with Charlotte, 50 with UTSA and 59 with Liberty. Temple and its opponents have combined for at least 48 points six of their seven games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Tulane v. North Texas OVER 65.5 | 45-37 | Win | 100 | 92 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Tulane/North Texas OVER 65.5 North Texas is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-1 OVER in all games this season with 68 or more combined points in five of those seven games. They even combined for 61 with a terrible Wyoming offense that plays slow. North Texas ranks 5th in the country in tempo at 21.9 seconds in between snaps on offense. The Mean Green rank 3rd in total offense at 528.0 yards per game and 10th at 7.1 yards per play as well as 9th in scoring at 41.3 points per game. They are very leaky defensively ranking 124th in scoring at 35.7 points per game and 121st at 445.7 yards per game allowed. Tulane will score at will on this North Texas defense. The Green Wave have gone for 41, 45 and 71 points in three of their last four games. They will hang a big number on the Mean Green, but I think this North Texas offense will keep coming as they always do every week. They kept coming last week in a 52-44 loss at Memphis in which they racked up 653 total yards on what was previously a very good Tigers defense. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-26-24 | Charlotte +18.5 v. Memphis | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 89 h 58 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +18.5 The Charlotte 49ers had a bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as they have been all season. They were coming off upset wins over Rice 21-20 as 4.5-point dogs and ECU 55-24 as 9.5-point dogs going into their bye week. They came out of their bye as 16.5-point dogs to Navy and lost 51-17. But that misleading 51-17 final last week is providing us with some line value to back Charlotte this week as 18.5-point dogs at Memphis. Charlotte was -5 in turnovers against Navy and gave up two non-offensive touchdowns with an 84-yard INT return TD and a 61-yard INT return TD. The 49ers actually outgained the Midshipmen 363 to 288 for the game, or by 75 total yards. Navy had no business scoring 51 points with just 288 total yards. Navy is a common opponent of these two teams as Memphis suffered its only loss to Navy by a final of 56-44. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Midshipmen racked up 566 total yards on Memphis. I just have not been impressed with this Memphis team at all this season, especially in their last four games. Following that upset loss to Navy, Memphis only beat Middle Tennessee 24-7 as 27-point home favorites. That's a MTSU team that has been getting blasted by everyone else. They only won 21-3 on a neutral in Orlando against USF, which was without its starting QB and dealing with the aftermath of the hurricane. And last week Memphis beat North Texas 52-44 as 11-point home favorites. The Tigers were fortunate to win that game against North Texas when you consider they were outgained by 127 yards while allowing a whopping 653 total yards to the Mean Green. I question how much their defense has left in the tank this week. I expect this Charlotte offense to have one of their best games of the season to keep them in this game for four quarters. The 49ers want revenge from a 44-38 (OT) loss to Memphis as 10-point underdogs last season, adding to their motivation. Bet Charlotte Saturday. |
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10-25-24 | Louisville v. Boston College +7 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 36 m | Show |
20* Louisville/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Boston College +7 This is a terrible spot for the Louisville Cardinals. They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are on a short week with travel to boot. Each of their last five games went down to the wire so they have had to put in max effort. I just don't think they'll have much left in the tank Friday night. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are coming off another gut-wrenching 52-45 home loss to Miami last week that pretty much eliminated them from ACC title contention. I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and the Cardinals have no business laying 7 points on the road here given the spot. Not to mention it's a sandwich spot coming off the Miami game and with another huge game at Clemson on deck next week. Boston College will be playing just its 2nd game in 20 days. The Eagles are rested and ready to go. They are also back home where they are 3-0 this season with solid wins over Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and keep in mind they didn't have starting QB Thomas Castellanos for the WKU game. Castellanos is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country. He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 161 yards and a score on the ground. This Louisville defense is really gassed after allowing 52 points to Miami last week, 449 yards to Virginia two weeks ago, 34 points to SMU three weeks ago and 31 points to Notre Dame four weeks ago. I don't think they will have the energy to chase around Castellanos for four quarters. Boston College has a solid defense that will hold Louisville in check. The Eagles allow 20.7 points per game, 351.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Boston College Friday. |
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10-24-24 | Vikings v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 82 h 36 m | Show |
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +3.5 It's time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks. Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers. They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games. In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19. They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye. This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense. The Rams received a much-needed bye week and came out of it healthier. They beat the Raiders 20-15 last week off their bye holding the Raiders to five field goals. Now more reinforcements are on the way with Cooper Kupp expected to return this week, and the offense will be more dynamic this week than is has been at any other point this season with the exception of Week 1 when they took the Lions to OT on the road. The Rams now sit at 2-4 on the season, but just 1.5 games back in their division. They know a win over the Vikings Thursday night would get them right back in it, and I expect them to win this game outright. This is a tough spot for the Vikings. They are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Detroit Lions, which are their biggest contenders to win the division. It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face the Rams on a short week, especially when they have to travel all the way to Los Angeles in between. It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice. Plus, teams after facing the physical Lions are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS this season and failing to cover by an average of 25.9 points per game. This trend has been great over the last couple seasons as well. Of course, it's also time to 'sell high' on the Vikings, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season. They have benefited from only having to play two true road games this season, and one came against the Giants and the other was against the Packers with Jordan Love hobbled in his first game back from injury. Love gifted the Vikings 3 interceptions and spotted them a 28-0 lead, only to see the Packers come back and lose by only 2. I would argue this will be Minnesota's toughest road test of the season with the Rams getting healthier, and the Vikings on a short week with travel. Bet the Rams Thursday. |
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10-23-24 | Middle Tennessee State v. Jacksonville State -20.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 42 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville State -20.5 Jacksonville State has been an absolute wagon in their last three games. They beat Southern Miss 44-7 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State 63-24 as 17-point favorites and New Mexico State 54-13 as 21-point favorites. They have covered the spread in those three games by a combined 73 points and outscored their opponents by a combined 117 points. Now the Gamecocks are off a bye week and ready to run it up on another bad team in Middle Tennessee. I don't mind laying big numbers with teams like Jacksonville State who play at a super fast tempo, which means more possessions. They rank 12th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds. Middle Tennessee has been embarrassing to say the least. The Blue Raiders lost by 28 at home to Western Kentucky, by 28 at home to Duke, by 49 at Ole Miss and by 27 at LA Tech. They also struggled to put away the worst team in college football last week in Kennesaw State in a 14-5 win. To compare, Jacksonville State blasted Kennesaw State 63-24. The Blue Raiders are also in a tough spot playing their 3rd game in 14 days and won't have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, who are fresh off a bye week and haven't played since October 9th. Bet Jacksonville State Wednesday. |
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10-22-24 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech OVER 50 | 10-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
15* CFB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UTEP/LA Tech OVER 50 UTEP and Louisiana Tech both like to play fast on offense which means there will be a lot of possessions in this game and more chances for points. UTEP ranks 23rd in tempo snapping it every 24.2 seconds, while LA Tech ranks 46th in tempo at 25.2 seconds in between snaps. Both teams are coming off two of their best offensive performances of the season. UTEP put up 30 points on FIU last week. The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 121st in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 120th in total defense at 419.9 yards per game. LA Tech put up 30 points on New Mexico State last week after scoring 48 on Middle Tennessee the previous week. But the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to one of the worst offenses in the country in New Mexico State last week. I like QB Evan Bullock, who is their full-time starter now and has a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio the last two games. They are forming great chemistry with Bullock, and he should have another big game here. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout here tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with no wind or rain to speak of in Ruston, LA. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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10-21-24 | Chargers -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 33 m | Show |
20* Chargers/Cardinals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 The Los Angeles Chargers just had a bye two weeks ago and got a ton of players back from injury. They promptly jumped out to a 23-0 lead over the Broncos in their first game back from the bye and coasted to victory in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. Now they remain fresh, and we are getting them at a great value Monday night as only 2.5-point favorites over the dreadful Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are a tired team that looks lost right now. They'll be playing for a 7th consecutive week and have been through the gauntlet. They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall and their lone win over the 49ers was an absolute fluke. They came back from a 23-10 halftime deficit as the 49ers continually shot themselves in the foot in the 2nd half. The three losses came 34-13 at Green Bay, 42-14 at home to Washington and 20-13 at home to the Lions. Kyler Murray and the offense are stuck in the mud, and the defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Cardinals rank 27th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game allowed, 27th in total defense at 373.3 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers have a massive edge defensively as they rank 1st in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game and 6th in total defense at 289.2 yards per game. Jim Harbaugh always has a good defense everywhere he goes, and he has turned this Chargers stop unit into one of the league's best in his first season. The offense got a healthy Justin Herbert and both his starting tackles back last week and it made a big difference. Los Angeles is a run-heavy offense that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing. That makes this a bad matchup for Arizona, which ranks 29th against the run allowing 153.0 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry. Things will come easy for the Chargers offensively, and nothing will come easy for Kyler Murray and company. The Cardinals are really banged up with four starters questionable on offense and four starters questionable on defense, plus another five defenders on IR. The Chargers will wear the Cardinals down with their rushing attack and be able to get the necessary first downs late in this game to preserve the win and cover. Bet the Chargers Monday. |
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10-21-24 | Ravens v. Bucs OVER 48 | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 12 m | Show | |
15* Ravens/Bucs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 48 Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Monday night against two defenses that are vulnerable to their opponents' strengths. This has the makings of a shootout, especially with the forecast perfect for a shootout with no rain, less than 10 MPH winds and temps in the 70's Monday night in Tampa Bay. The Ravens have the best offense in the NFL rank 1st in total offense at 453.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.1 yards per play. The Buccaneers rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play. Both teams are almost fully healthy on offense right now as well. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing at 205.3 yards per game and 5.9 per carry. The Bucs rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The Ravens are going to be able to get whatever they want against this banged-up Tampa Bay defense, which allows 23.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense nearly as potent as Baltimore yet. The Bucs allowed 27 points to the Saints and all their backups last week after allowing 36 points and 550 total yards to the Falcons the week prior. No question the Ravens have a solid defense, but they are just 23rd in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play. Where they have been particularly poor is against the pass, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt which ranks 26th in the NFL. That makes this a great matchup for Baker Mayfield and this pass-heavy Tampa Bay offense. The OVER is 5-1 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in all six, including 49 or more in four of the last five. The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs last three games overall with 49, 66 and 78 combined points. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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10-20-24 | Raiders v. Rams -5 | 15-20 | Push | 0 | 162 h 38 m | Show | |
15* Raiders/Rams Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5 I grabbed the Rams -5 on Sunday night loving the spot for this team and anticipating they would get bet. Well, as of this writing they are up to 7-point favorites now against the Raiders, and I obviously agree with the move. This one has blowout written all over it. It's time to 'buy low' on the Rams after opening 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS against the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first five weeks. Their four losses came to the Lions, Cardinals, Bears and Packers while their lone win actually came against the 49ers. They played three of their first five games on the road, and three of the four losses they had a chance to win in the final seconds in one-score games. In their two home games they were impressive, upsetting the 49ers 27-24 and barely coming up short against the Packers, 24-19. They outgained the Packers 370 to 328 in their final game going into their bye. This despite being extremely banged up on offense and defense. Reinforcements are on the way now as the Rams had a much-needed bye last week, and they will be looking at this as a brand new season moving forward. Cooper Kupp returned to practice this week and could return. RT Joe Notebloom is off IR and back to practice and could return. The defense is almost fully healthy now and should be one of the most improved units in the league the rest of the way. But this is as much a fade of the Raiders as it is a play on the Rams. The Raiders are lost right now. They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with a 19-point home loss to the Steelers, a 16-point road loss to the Broncos and a 14-point home loss to the Panthers. Their lone win came at home against the hapless Browns during this stretch. The Raiders just traded WR Devante Adams to the Jets earlier this week, signaling that their season is over. DE Maxx Crosby has yet to practice this week and may not play, especially since he is so close to Adams. RB Zamir White, WR Jakobi Meyers and RG Dylan Parham are all questionable on offense. DT John Jenkins, LB Tommy Eichenberg and CB Jack Jones are all questionable along with Crosby. Five other defenders are already on IR. They have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL and now limited weapons outside TE Brock Bowers to get the ball to. Los Angeles RB Kyren Williams should have a huge day against a Raiders defense that allows 140.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry to take some pressure off of Stafford, and the Rams are at their best when they can run the football. I obviously got a good line here at -5, but would still play the Rams up to -7 and throw them in some teasers at that number. This one has blowout written all over it. Bet the Rams Sunday. |
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10-20-24 | Panthers v. Commanders OVER 51 | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 58 m | Show |
20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Panthers/Commanders OVER 51 Both the Panthers and Commanders are dead nuts OVER teams. Carolina is 4-0 OVER since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback with 58 or more combined points in three of them. Washington is 5-1 OVER in all games this season with 53 or more combined points in four of them. Washington ranks 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29.7 points per game, 5th in total offense at 378 yards per game and 5th at 6.4 yards per play. Jayden Daniels is the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year for good reason as he is already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 75.3% of his passes and has accounted for 10 total touchdowns. Daniels and company should score at will against a Carolina defense that may be the worst in the entire NFL. The Panthers rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 33.8 points per game this season. They have allowed 34, 36 and 38 points the last three weeks. Injuries to their defense is a big reason why as they have 10 defenders on IR and another 7 listed as questionable heading into this game. They have been decimated on that side of the ball. They will be facing a Washington offense that is basically fully healthy and should get RB Brian Robinson back this week. Andy Dalton has at least made this Carolina offense respectable averaging 22.5 points per game in his four starts. He'll be up against a poor Washington defense that ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 6.3 yards per play. The Commanders are also 29th allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, so the Panthers should have plenty of success on the ground behind Chubba Hubbard. Injuries are starting to pile up for the Commanders defensively as they just lost their best defensive lineman in Jonathan Allen to a season-ending injury in allowing 30 points and 484 total yards to the Ravens last week. Another five defensive starters are listed as questionable heading into this one as well. The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Sunday afternoon with temps in the 70's and, 3 MPH winds and zero chance of rain. I've been riding OVERS in Carolina and Washington games in recent weeks, and now they meet up and I'm definitely not passing up this opportunity. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-20-24 | Seahawks v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 34-14 | Loss | -110 | 160 h 1 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Seahawks/Falcons OVER 48.5 The Seattle Seahawks are a dead nuts OVER team right now with a really banged up defense missing several key players on their defensive line and in the secondary. But their offense is good enough to go score for score with almost anyone, and they're going to have to try and do that in the dome in Atlanta Sunday. The Seahawks allowed 36 points and 483 total yards to the 49ers last week, 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team that was without two of its best weapons in WR Nabers and RB Singletary two weeks ago, and 42 points to the Lions three weeks ago. It won't get any easier for this Seattle defense going up against an Atlanta offense that is fully healthy and hitting on all cylinders right now. The Falcons put up 36 points and 550 total yards on the Bucs two weeks ago and 38 points and 423 total yards on the Panthers last week. Kirk Cousins is showing he's still got it, and he has ample weapons to get the ball to. Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in pass rush and just cannot get to opposing quarterbacks. Despite a shaky offensive line, Geno Smith is going to have all day to pick apart their defense. The Falcons have allowed 20-plus points in five consecutive games, including 30 to the Bucs in their last home game. Geno Smith has his full compliment of weapons healthy right now as their offense is very healthy as a whole. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in five of those six. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-20-24 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Colts | 10-16 | Loss | -115 | 158 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +4.5 I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and they are about as healthy as they have been all season now with the exception of QB Tua Tagovailoa. But Tyler Huntley was brought in to replace him and started the same week he was brought in in a loss to the Titans. He was much better in a 15-10 win at New England in his second start, and now with two full weeks to get accustomed to Mike McDaniels' offense, he is primed for his best game yet. That's especially the case considering he takes a big step down in class here against a Colts defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, plus one that is dealing with a ton of injuries. The Colts rank 30th in total defense at 389.5 yards per game allowed. They are 31st against the run allowing 155.2 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins will go with a run-heavy approach, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rush for 200-plus yards in this one with all their weapons in Achane and Mostert healthy, plus Huntley being a dual-threat. What has gone unnoticed for the Dolphins is just how good their defense has been this season. They rank 5th in total defense allowing just 285.4 yards per game. The Colts are making a mistake going from Joe Flacco back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback. They have played their best this season with Flacco, and Richardson is too much boom or bust with his inaccuracy as a passer. Four key players on offense are all questionable in RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Josh Downs, WR Alec Pierce and C Ryan Kelly. The Dolphins were just 2.5-point home favorites over the Titans two games ago. The Colts were just 2.5-point road dogs to the Titans last week. As you can see, there's clearly value in getting the Dolphins at +4.5 this week based on those recent lines against a common opponent. This line should be much closer to PK. The Colts are a tired team playing six straight one-score games to open the season, while the Dolphins are fresh and off a bye. Bet the Dolphins Sunday. |
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10-20-24 | Texans v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -119 | 160 h 49 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay Packers -2.5 The Green Bay Packers are hitting on all cylinders offensively with Jordan Love back fully healthy and with his full compliment of weapons. The Packers have five offensive players on the injury report but all five practiced on Thursday, which is a good sign they are good to go. The Packers scored 29 points on the Vikings, 24 on the Rams and then 34 on the Cardinals last week in Love's three starts back from injury. They racked up 437 total yards on the Cardinals last week. Love threw for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns. This is one of the best offenses in the league when fully healthy. The Texans allowed Drake Maye to throw 3 touchdown passes on them in his first career start last week. Their defense is extremely banged up right now with five starters missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday in DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, LB To'oto'o, S Ward and CB Lassiter. Plus, DT Mario Edwards was just suspended and will miss this game. The Packers should be able to name their number Sunday. The Texans are overvalued due to their 5-1 start this season. They could easily be 3-3 instead or worse. Four of their five wins came by 6 points or fewer and a total of 15 points. The lone blowout came against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Patriots last week. We saw what happened when the Texans hit the road and took a step up in class earlier this season in their lone loss. They fell 34-7 to Minnesota, which is the same Minnesota team Green Bay took to the wire a few weeks ago in a 31-29 defeat. Keep in mind the Texans actually had Nico Collins in that game, and now he is out with injury. He is easily their best receiver with 32 receptions for 567 yards and 3 TD despite missing one game. They need him to beat a team like Green Bay, and couple that with all their defensive injuries, and I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive. The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and it's worth a full 3 points in my opinion. Considering the Packers are the better, healthier team right now, they should be more than 2.5-point favorites at home this week. Bet the Packers Sunday. |
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10-19-24 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 43 | 20-48 | Loss | -111 | 115 h 17 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Florida UNDER 43 Both Florida and Kentucky are dead nuts UNDER teams. Both play elite defense and both are lacking on offense. Add to that the fact that there will be double-digit winds in Gainesville Saturday night, and we have the recipe for an ugly, defensive battle in this one. The UNDER is 5-1 in all Kentucky games this season. The Wildcats rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points per game, 117th in total offense at 321.7 yards per game and 109th at 5.1 yards per play. The Wildcats are in no hurry, either, ranking 126th in tempo at 29.9 seconds in between plays. Kentucky ranks 9th in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game and 5th in total defense at 251.5 yards per game allowed. Their defense is always fresh because their offense runs at such a slow pace and tries to control the ball. Kentucky held Georgia to 13 points and Ole Miss to 17 points, and those are two of the best offenses in the country. That's all you need to know about how good this defense really is. I was on Florida last week as +14.5-point underdogs at Tennessee and it was mostly due to their defensive improvement. I was very impressive with Florida only allowing 13 points and 273 total yards to UCF the week prior, including 108 rushing on 40 attempts after UCF came into that game as one of the top rushing teams in the country. The Gators followed it up with an even more impressive defensive effort at Tennessee, allowing just 312 total yards including 143 rushing on 43 attempts to the Vols, who had previously been one of the top overall offenses in the country. They deserved to win that game. Unfortunately for Florida, starting QB Graham Mertz got injured in that Tennessee game and now will be out for this game. That leaves the offense to freshman DJ Lagway, who adds a dual-threat element to their offense, but isn't near the passer that Mertz was. The Gators are going to have to be more of a one-dimensional running team moving forward with Lagway, and that makes them even more of an UNDER team. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 44, 37, 42 and 47 combined points. As you can see, this has been a very low-scoring series, and it figures to continue to be that way given all the factors heading into this game. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Iowa v. Michigan State +6.5 | Top | 20-32 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State +6.5 The Michigan State Spartans desperately needed a bye week. They not only played six consecutive weeks, but they finished it by having to play two of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and then having to travel to Eugene to face Oregon on a short week on a Friday night. Now the Spartans have been off for the last two weeks and will be fresh for this game against Iowa Saturday night. Bye weeks benefit first-year head coaches more than any, and giving one of the most underrated head coaches in the country in Jonathan Smith extra time to prepare for Iowa is a huge advantage. This is a tough spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes. After traveling to Ohio State and getting blasted two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes came back home and beat Washington 40-16 last week. I think the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect now off that blowout win that was not only misleading, but it was also a terrible spot for Washington. The Huskies were coming off their win over Michigan, and they got their national title revenge. They were flat because of it, and it was an early 9:00 AM body clock game for the Huskies against Iowa last week. Yet Washington still outgained Iowa 393 to 328 for the game. The Hawkeyes had no business scoring 40 points on just 328 total yards, including 108 passing. Iowa is a one-dimensional running team this season. That makes this a great matchup for Michigan State, which has a great defense especially against the run. Despite the tough schedule, the Spartans rank 38th in the country allowing 330.3 yards per game and only 21.0 points per game. They only allow 131 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. They have what it takes to slow down Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, who is one of the best backs in the country. Michigan State was dreadful last year but still managed to outgain Iowa 349 to 222, or by 127 yards in their meeting as 10-point underdogs in Iowa City. The Spartans are now one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and coming off their bye week they are primed for one of their best performances of the season. It will be good enough to not only cover this 6.5-point spread, but likely win this game outright. Bet Michigan State Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | LSU v. Arkansas +3 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 11 m | Show |
20* LSU/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +3 The Arkansas Razorbacks are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and could easily be 6-0. If they were 6-0, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to LSU. They outgained Oklahoma State 648 to 385 and found a way to lose in OT. They ougtgained Texas A&M 379 to 297 and led in the 4th quarter of a 21-17 defeat. Arkansas has elite numbers this season averaging 485 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 322 yards per game and 5.2 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 163 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play. Based on numbers alone, Arkansas is the better team. LSU averages 460 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense and allows 372 yards per game and 5.8 per play on defense. They are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play. And keep in mind the Razorbacks have also played the tougher schedule to this point. After a grueling 19-14 home win over Tennessee, the Razorbacks needed a bye week after playing for a 6th consecutive week. They got that bye last week, and now they have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for LSU. Meanwhile, LSU is coming off a huge OT home win over a short-handed Ole Miss team in which they never led until OT. This is a clear flat spot for the Tigers now feeling fat and happy off that Ole Miss win. Each of the last four meetings between Arkansas and LSU were decided by exactly 3 points, so getting 3 points with the Razorbacks alone is a nice value. But this Arkansas team is one of the most improved in the country and ready to pull the upset at home in what will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night. Bet Arkansas Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Colorado v. Arizona OVER 55.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 25 m | Show |
25* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado/Arizona OVER 55.5 Colorado is a dead nuts OVER team. The Buffaloes have gone OVER the total in three consecutive games combining for 69 points with Baylor, 69 with UCF and 59 with Kansas State. This total of 55.5 is too low for a game against Arizona with perfect weather conditions and a Wildcats team that also profiles as a dead nuts OVER team. The strength of Colorado is their passing game which ranks 8th in the country at 336.3 yards per game while averaging 8.4 per attempt. The weakness of Arizona is their defense, which allows 26.5 points per game and hasn't faced an offense as potent as this Colorado outfit. They just allowed 41 points to BYU last week and will be playing for a 4th consecutive week with a tired defense. But Arizona should have plenty of offensive success against Colorado, which allows 24.3 points per game and has given up 31 to Baylor and 31 to Kansas State this season. I'd argue this Arizona offense is the best unit they will have faced this season. The Wildcats average 413.5 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play, including 5.1 yard per carry on the ground and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. This despite playing three of their last four games against elite defenses in BYU, Utah and Kansas State as well as an improved Texas Tech stop unit. Arizona beat Colorado 34-31 for 65 combined points last season with a similar total of 56. They combined for 63 points in 2022 as well. It should be more of the same here as these two offenses combine for 60-plus points Saturday night. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Auburn +4.5 v. Missouri | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 89 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Auburn/Missouri ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +4.5 The Auburn Tigers went through the gauntlet to start the season having to play six consecutive weeks without a bye and closing it with games against Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma and then Georgia. They needed a bye week, and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go against Missouri this week as they head into the 2nd half of their season. Due to their 2-4 SU record, the Auburn Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have the numbers of a team that should be 5-1 or 6-0. Auburn ranks 35th in the country at 445 yards per game and 9th at 7.3 yards per play on offense, and 48th in the country at 338 yards per game and 5.0 per play allowed on defense. That's right, they are outgaining teams by 107 yards per game and a whopping 2.3 yards per play despite being 2-4. Costly turnovers and poor execution in short-yardage situations are the culprit, and they worked on those situations over their bye week. Missouri is overrated due to its 5-1 record this season. They beat Boston College 27-21 as 14.5-point home favorites and Vanderbilt 30-27 as 17.5-point home favorites. They finally got exposed losing 41-10 at Texas A&M two weeks ago which was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. They were outgained 512 to 254 by the Aggies, or by 258 yards. Based on the numbers, Auburn is as good as Texas A&M and will expose them again. Auburn has also played the 36th-ranked schedule while Missouri has played the 111th. The competition gets a lot tougher for Missouri moving forward after having another easy game against UMass last week. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Nebraska v. Indiana -6.5 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 88 h 19 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -6.5 The Indiana Hoosiers are the most improved team in the country. They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and would be 6-0 ATS as long as you bet them early in Week 1. When head coach Curt Cignetti accepted the head coaching job, one of his first stops was Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, where the Big Ten Championship Game was being played the next day. Cignetti went on Big Ten Network and said, "I figured I had to make this trip up here since we'll be playing in this game next year." His team has exuded that confidence all offseason and during the season, and they believe. The Hoosiers have a great chance to get to 9-0 going into consecutive games against Michigan and Ohio State. The Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play. They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game. That balance is what makes them so tough to tame. But the Hoosiers have been equally impressive on the other side of the football. They rank 14th in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game, 7th in total defense at 255.7 yards per game and 11th at 4.4 yards per play. Nebraska also has a great defense, but they have benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and they haven't faced an offense nearly as potent as Indiana. The Huskers are 5-1 SU this season and have benefited from a very soft schedule with five home games against Rutgers, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP, and their lone road game coming against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue. This will be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season Saturday afternoon, and I don't expect them to be able to stay within a TD of the Hoosiers. Bet Indiana Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Nebraska v. Indiana OVER 50.5 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 88 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Nebraska/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 50.5 The Indiana Hoosiers are absolutely loaded on offense ranking 3rd in the country in scoring at 47.5 points per game, 6th in total offense at 515.7 yards per game and 7th at 7.6 yards per play. They have tremendous balance averaging 315 passing yards per game and 200 rushing yards per game. That balance is what makes them so tough to tame. The Indiana Hoosiers are vastly improved on offense this season thanks to having a 5-star QB in Dylan Raiola. He is completing 67% of his passes for 1,358 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio. He leads a Nebraska offense that averaging 28.0 points per game despite playing several games in tough wind conditions, some poor kicking and some poor red zone executioin. Raiola and company are going to be forced to try and keep up with Indiana in a shootout. The Huskers have pretty much held a lead for every second of every game this season and have been able to be methodical on offense. They won't have that luxury this week because Indiana will get its points. This is by far the best offense Nebraska has faced as their first six games have come against Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, UNI, Colorado and UTEP with five of those six games coming at home, and their lone road game coming at Purdue. Indiana has good defensive numbers like Nebraska, but that is largely due to the schedule as well having faced Northwestern, Maryland, Charlotte, UCLA, Western Illinois and Florida International. I would argue Nebraska is the best offense they have faced if it's not Maryland. The OVER is 5-0 in Indiana's last five games overall with 55 or more combined points in all five including 65 or more in four of them. This 50.5-point total is very low for a game involving the Hoosiers. Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday afternoon with no wind, no rain and temps in the 60's. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Miami-FL v. Louisville OVER 61 | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 88 h 2 m | Show | |
15* Miami/Louisville ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61 The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the country and have gone 5-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 62 or more combined points in five consecutive games coming in. Now they are off their bye week and should have even more wrinkles offensively for Louisville this week. Miami ranks 1st in the country in almost all major offensive categories including scoring (47.7 points per game), total offense (583.8 yards per game), yards per play (8.1) and passing offense (400 passing yards per game). QB Cam Ward is among the Heisman Trophy favorites for good reason, throwing for 2,219 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground. Louisville's defense is absolutely gassed right now playing for a 5th consecutive week off four straight games that went down to the wire against Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia. They were on the field for 82 plays last week against Virginia and allowed 449 yards to their mediocre offense. They gave up 34 points and 481 total yards to SMU the previous week. They stand very little chance to slowing down this Miami offense this week. Louisville will be forced to try to keep pace in a shootout. The Cardinals have the goods offensively to do just that. They rank 23rd in scoring at 36.2 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 461.8 yards per game and 14th at 7.2 yards per play. Miami's defense was exposed in their last two games giving up 34 points to Virginia Tech and 38 to California, which both have mediocre offenses. This Louisville offense will now be the best the Hurricanes have seen all season. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 69, 81 and 79 combined points. Louisville beat Miami 38-31 on the road last season in a game that saw 956 yards of total offense. It will be more of the same in this meeting, especially with the forecast being perfect for scoring with no wind or rain and temps in the 60's this afternoon. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-19-24 | Wake Forest v. Connecticut -118 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -118 | 108 h 25 m | Show |
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on UConn ML -118 The UConn Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country. They are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season with their two losses both coming on the road to Maryland and Duke. They rolled FAU 48-14 and Buffalo 47-3 at home before escaping with a 29-20 win over Temple. They were a tired team going into that Temple game playing for a 6th consecutive week, and it was a bit of a letdown spot with Wake Forest on deck. The Huskies got a much-needed bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for Wake Forest. No question they will come back highly motivated with this opportunity to play a team from the ACC, albeit one of the worst teams in the conference. The spot is a poor one for Wake Forest. Now it's the Demon Deacons that are the tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week. They lost 41-38 at home to Louisiana, won 34-30 at NC State and then lost 49-14 at home to Clemson. After playing those two games that came down to the wire, you could tell how fatigued they were especially defensively against Clemson. Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to get up for this non-conference game against UConn, and I don't see them being able to do it. UConn wants this one more and is in the better spot to get it. A big reason UConn is so improve this season is thier offense, which averages 450 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They should be able to get whatever they want offensively against a Wake Forest defense that is one of the worst in the country. The Demon Deacons rank 119th in scoring defense at 34.0 points per game, 127th at 478 yards per game allowed and 120th at 6.5 yards per play. The Demon Deacons don't have their usual potent offense this season largely due to having the embattled Hank Bachmeier at quarterback. They average fewer than 400 yards per game despite playing at the 12th-fasted tempo in college football. I've never been a fan of Bachmeier dating back to his Boise State days. UConn has an improved defense that allows 21.7 points per game, 339 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Huskies will get enough stops to preserve the lead. Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday. |
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10-18-24 | Oregon v. Purdue +28.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
20* Oregon/Purdue FOX No-Brainer on Purdue +28.5 I was waiting for a 28 this week to back Purdue and we finally got it, and an even better 28.5 at Circa which I have released to premium clients as of Thursday. This is a terrible spot for the Oregon Ducks, and I like what I saw from the Boilermakers last week enough to pull the trigger. Oregon is in the flat spot of all flat spots. The Ducks are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, upsetting Ohio State 32-31 at home as 3.5-point underdogs to take a commanding lead in the Big Ten title race. They are fat and happy, and they are primed for a letdown here against Purdue. The Boilermakers switched quarterbacks last week and head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties to try and save his job. It worked wonders as the Boilermakers looked like a new team, taking Illinois to the wire in a 50-49 (OT) loss as 22.5-point road underdogs. Freshman Ryan Browne made his first collegiate start at QB and threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 118 yards against what is a very good Illinois defense. I think Browne gives this team new life, and his dual-threat ability will keep the Boilermakers coming for four quarters against Oregon this week. Walters expressed frustration to his players about media calling out his team for quitting, and they responded. "I just talked to them about, I don't care what you're doing in life, where you're at, what your occupation is. As a man, don't ever let the perception be that you quit when things got tough or that you quit when adversity hits. In life, as in football, adversity is guaranteed. At a bare minimum it should be that you fight" Walters said. Oregon's two road games have been short trips to Corvalis to face Oregon State and to Los Angeles to face UCLA. This should be their toughest road test of the season, especially given the flat spot and the short week. They aren't exactly keeping the foot on the gas offensively scoring 37 or fewer points in five of their six games, and if they don't top that number it's going to be very hard for them to cover this massive 28.5-point spread. Plus, they will likely be without their best pass rusher in Jordan Burch, who suffered a knee injury. Purdue has a bye on deck next week so they should be 'all in' here, plus I'm not worried about them being flat coming off an OT loss to Illinois considering it's a Top 5 Oregon team coming to town. They are looking at this as their National Championship Game, and I think it will be much closer than this 28.5-point spread would indicate. Bet Purdue Friday. |
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10-17-24 | Broncos -125 v. Saints | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show | |
15* Broncos/Saints ATS ANNIHILATOR on Denver ML -125 I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short. I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday. The Broncos are capable of putting up a big number against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks. They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week. This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now. The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch. Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games. He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense. The reason I added the Broncos on the money line was the injury report for the Saints. It's as bad as it gets, and New Orleans legitimately is the worst team in the NFL this week with the players they will be putting on the field. They are without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. RG Caesar Ruiz is out as is C Erik McCoy. Both QB Derek Carr and TE Taysom Hill have been ruled out. Spencer Rattler will have his hands full going up against a Denver defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring at 16.0 points per game and 4th in total defense at 284.3 yards per game. They will be without star CB Patrick Surtain II, but they are still good enough to hold Rattler and company in check. I expect the Broncos to win somewhere in the 31-17 range, which will easily get us a win on them and the OVER. Bet the Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-17-24 | Broncos v. Saints OVER 36.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show |
20* Broncos/Saints Total DOMINATOR on OVER 36.5 I originally sent out the OVER 36.5 Sunday night thinking this number was too short. I still think it's too short, but I've also added the Broncos on the Money Line since seeing the injury report that came out for the Saints on Monday. Scoring is up in the NFL right now, and this is about as short a total as you will see in the NFL. Especially for a game played inside a dome in perfect conditions. I understand the reasons to be hesitant about these two offenses, but I think they can both have enough success against these two defenses to get up and over 36.5 combined points. The Broncos are capable of covering this total on their own against a Saints defense that has been absolutely dreadful the last two weeks. They allowed 26 points and 460 total yards to a short-handed Chiefs offense on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They allowed 51 points and a whopping 594 total yards to the Bucs last week. This New Orleans defense is gassed and banged up right now. The Saints will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days after playing on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. They are without S Will Harris and LB Pete Werner and it just looks like Dennis Allen has lost his touch. Speaking of key injuries, the Broncos just lost their best defensive player and Defensive MVP candidate Patrick Surtain II to a concussion. He obviously won't clear protocol in time to play Thursday and has already been ruled out. They were already without LB Alex Singleton, who was their leading tackler before going down with injury. Bo Nix is improving steadily leading the Broncos to 21.5 points per game during their 3-1 stretch in their last four games. He should have his best game of the season against this tired, weak Saints defense. I expect rookie Spencer Rattler to have enough success to contribute to the OVER cashing. He led the Saints to 27 points against the Bucs in his first start last week. He is boom-or-bust and could just as easily throw a pick-6 as a touchdown. Bet Broncos on the Money Line and the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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10-16-24 | Western Kentucky v. Sam Houston State -2.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 26 m | Show |
20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State -2.5 The Sam Houston State Bearkats are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They had a rude awakening in their first season at the FBS level last season, but they are one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2. Sam Houston State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road to UCF. They have four blowout wins all by 18 points or more, plus an impressive 40-39 upset win as 11.5-point underdogs over Texas State, which many felt would win the Sun Belt and possibly make the 12-team playoff this season. Now the Bearkats will be motivated to prove they are a C-USA contender by taking down one of the favorites to win the conference in Western Kentucky tonight. I like this WKU team, but this is a terrible spot for them as the Hilltoppers will be at a big rest disadvantage. Indeed, Sam Houston State is coming off a bye week and last play on October 3rd, while Western Kentucky had to play UTEP on October 10th and only has five days in between games to get ready. I fully expect the Bearkats to put to use this rest and preparation advantage, plus it should be a pretty hostile atmosphere in their favor with fans excited about this team after their 5-1 start. Sam Houston has a big advantage on defense allowing 338 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, while WKU allows 385.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. It's pretty much a toss up offensively with Sam Houston averaging 401 yards per game and 5.5 per play while WKU averages 399 yards per game and 5.8 per play. The big advantages the Bearkats have in rest, preparation, defense and home field should lead them to winning this game by a field goal or more to cover this short 2.5-point spread tonight. Bet Sam Houston State Wednesday. |
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10-14-24 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 41 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
20* Bills/Jets ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 41 It's going to be very windy Monday night in New York with 10-20 MPH winds throughout the game. Wind is the biggest factor in preventing points, and these are already two dead nuts UNDER teams as currently constructed. The Jets have yet another Top 5 defense this season. They rank 6th in scoring defense at 17.0 points per game, 2nd in total defense at 255.8 yards per game and 1st at 4.5 yards per play allowed. They are nearly back to full strength defensively as LB C.J. Mosely is back this week and NB Michael Carter II is questionable. The Bills have slipped a little defensively this season ranking 12th in the NFL allowing 21.2 points per game. But injuries and a tough schedule are a big reason for that slippage as they have had to face the Texans, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins and Cardinals. This may be the worst offense they have faced yet in the Jets. The Bills have LB Terrel Bernard, NB Taron Johnson and SS Taylor Rapp back in the lineup after all three missed games earlier. They'll be up against a poor Jets offense that ranks 25th in scoring at 18.6 points per game, 27th in total offense at 286.6 yards per game and 27th at 4.7 yards per play. The problem for the Bills this season is a lack of playmakers on offense. They rank 22nd in the NFL at 299.8 yards per game. After managing just 10 points against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Bills were fortunate to get to 20 points against the Texans last week considering they were held to 276 total yards and 16 first downs. Josh Allen had the worst game of his career completing just 9-of-30 (30%) of his pass attempts for 131 yards. Allen was without his best receiver in Khalil Shakir last week, and he didn't practice Friday and may be out again with an ankle injury. Now leading rusher James Cook has a toe injury and didn't practice Friday as well. WR Mack Hollins and WR Curtis Samuel are banged up, and QB Allen is dealing with ankle and hand injuries and hasn't looked the same the last two weeks. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 38 or fewer combined points in all five. The UNDER is 17-2-1 in the last 20 Monday Night Football games when the home team is listed as the underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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10-13-24 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 122 h 44 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Panthers OVER 47.5 The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with Andy Dalton at quarterback. The OVER is 3-0 in Dalton's three starts this season with 58, 58 and 46 combined points. He makes their offense respectable, and he is forced to try to win shootouts every week because the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.0 points per game allowed, 28th in total defense at 371.2 yards per game and 26th at 6.0 yards per play. Injuries have absolutely decimated their defense as they are without DE Derrick Brown, LB Shaq Thompson, LB Jadeveon Clowney and LB Josey Jewell among others. They have nine defenders on the IR already. Now they must try and tame a hot Atlanta offense that ranks 7th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play. Kirk Cousins is coming off one of his best games of his career with 509 passing yards and 4 TD in a 36-30 win over the Bucs last week. The Falcons will be able to name their number against this Carolina defense, and Dalton and company will be forced to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep pace. Carolina does a good job of pass blocking up front, and Atlanta has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Dalton should have plenty of success. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Lions -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 47-9 | Win | 100 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
20* Lions/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Detroit -3 The Detroit Lions absolute hate the Dallas Cowboys. They lost to them in the playoffs on a phantom penalty a few years ago. They lost on another bogus penalty last year getting their 2-point conversion called back in a 20-19 defeat. They have now lost six straight to the Cowboys. This is the week they say enough is enough. Normally I don't like backing teams coming out of their bye week who went into their bye week fat and happy like the Lions did. They beat the Seahawks 42-29 to improve to 3-1 on the season. But they aren't fat and happy because they have revenge in mind against the Cowboys, plus they are now trailing the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings within the division. The Lions will be all business this week. But this is as much a fade of the Cowboys as anything. Dallas has been ravaged by injuries as they are missing four key defensive linemen including Parsons and Lawrence. The Steelers weren't able to take advantage last week, but the Lions will be able to. They have one of the best offensive lines and thus one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 151.2 yards per game and will be up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 24th at stopping the run. The Cowboys are 0-2 in their two home games this season losing 44-19 to the Saints and 28-25 to the Ravens in a game the Ravens led by 22 at one point. The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on the Cowboys while the Saints rushed for 190. And that was before all these injuries started to hit this Cowboys defense. This is a very tough spot for the Cowboys. They return home from Pittsburgh after playing on Sunday Night Football and having their game delayed by lightning to boot. It didn't get over until around midnight eastern, meaning the Cowboys didn't get back home until early Monday morning. They have a bye on deck next week and may play it smart and not rush anyone back from injury as a result. The Lions will be the fresher team playing with a sense of urgency this week. Bet the Lions Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Chargers -2.5 v. Broncos | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
15* Chargers/Broncos AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -2.5 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Chargers this week. They are coming off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jim Harbaugh. The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Chargers, who were extremely banged up going into their bye and needed the rest to get some key players healthy. Reinforcements are on the way now. Both starting tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are expected to return this week. QB Justin Herbert needed those two weeks to get his ankle healed up and has no injury designation now. They are fully healthy on offense, plus SS Derwin James returns and LB Joey Bosa will likely be back as well. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Broncos, who are coming off three straight misleading wins since their 0-2 start. They caught the Bucs in a letdown spot after getting playoff revenge on the Lions the previous week and upset them 26-7. Two weeks ago they beat the Jets 10-9 on the road despite managing just 176 total yards on offense. Last week, they beat the Raiders 34-18 despite getting outgained 330 to 289 by Las Vegas. The Raiders were going in to take a 17-3 lead but threw a 100-yard pick-6 that changed the game. Injuries are mounting for the Broncos now. They will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Luke Wattenberg and RT Alex Palczewski, and two other offensive linemen are already on the IR. WR Josh Reynolds is out as well. This Denver offense may be the worst in the entire NFL now. They rank 28th in total offense at 270.6 yards per game and 30th at 4.6 yards per play. They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th at 282.5 yards per game, 6th at 5.2 yards per play and 1st in scoring at 12.5 points per game allowed. The Chargers fit into a great system, and road favorites off a bye week have been gold for years to boot. Bye teams coming off a loss against a non-bye team that is coming off a win, when the team off a bye is not more than a 3-point underdog are 35-6 ATS in the last 41 tries. Favorites or short dogs off a loss off a bye are a great bet, and it makes sense because they are motivated and rested. Bet the Chargers Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Bucs -140 v. Saints | 51-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML -140 I released the Bucs on the Money Line as soon as I found out Derek Carr would be out for the Saints. I already loved the spot for the Bucs after playing last Thursday while the Saints played on Monday, giving the Bucs a 4-day rest advantage. This play has just gotten stronger with all the injuries the Saints are dealing with right now. They aren't the same team that opened 2-0 with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys. Injuries have really decimated this team and are the biggest reason for their 0-3 record since. Not only are the Saints without Carr, but they are without C Erik McCoy and RG Cesar Ruiz. Both backup centers are either out or questionable as well. Defensively, the Saints are without LB Pete Werner and S Will Harris as well. They just allowed 460 total yards to the Chiefs, who were missing key weapons and still did whatever they wanted offensively Monday night. The Bucs rank 10th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game. They are pretty healthy on offense, and on defense they are likely to get two key pieces back this week in DE Calijah Kancey and S Antoine Winfield. There's a good chance they get back to full strength here defensively, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks. The Bucs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Orleans, including a 26-9 victory last week. I just don't think rookie QB Spencer Rattler has what it takes to win in his first start. The Saints are also without TE Taysom Hill, who brings an added dimension to their offense that they have been missing the last three weeks. Todd Bowles should have a field day calling defense against Rattler and keeping him off balance while committing multiple turnovers. Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Colts v. Titans -115 | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 12 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans ML -115 The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now. They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week. They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play. They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker. The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season. Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan. He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense. The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit. The Colts have a boom or bust offense, and I believe they are worse off with Anthony Richardson than Joe Flacco. They are expected to start Richardson this week. They will be without star RB Jonathan Taylor, and their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both questionable. Injuries have really decimated the Colts in the early going. The Titans are fully healthy coming out of their bye and they get back their best defensive player in DE Jeffrey Simmons, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the entire NFL. Defense has been a bright spot for the Titans, who rank 1st in the NFL at 243.8 yards per game allowed and 2nd at 4.6 yards per play. They upgraded their defense big time, and I expect they'll get multiple turnovers in this game to change the game to their favor. Bet the Titans on the Money Line Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Commanders +7 v. Ravens | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Commanders +7 What more do the Washington Commanders have to do to get some respect? They clearly aren't getting any this week as 7-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens and we'll take advantage once again. The Commanders are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They beat the Giants 21-18 on seven field goals and never punted. The beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road and never punted. They beat the Cardinals 42-14 on the road as 3.5-point dogs. And last week they crushed the Browns 34-13 at home as 3-point favorites. Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry. He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league. While the offense is getting all the hype, the improvement of Dan Quinn's defense has been impressive the last two weeks. They held the Cardinals to just 14 points and the Browns to just 13 points in consecutive weeks. I don't expect them to stop the Ravens, but I expect them to get enough stops to keep Daniels and company in the game for four quarters. This is a massive letdown spot for the Ravens. They fought back from three double-digit deficits in the 2H to beat the Bengals 41-38 (OT) on the road last week. They are a tired team, while the Commanders should be fresh off two straight blowout wins. The Commanders are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now to boot. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens tend to have letdowns in these spots when they are favored by more than 3 points. In fact, Jackson is 11-21 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 or higher in his career. We saw them lose outright as 8.5-point favorites to the Raiders earlier this season. Bet the Commanders Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Commanders v. Ravens OVER 51.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Commanders/Ravens OVER 51.5 Jayden Daniels is on the best rookies in recent memory, completing 77.1% of his passes for 1,135 yards and 4 TD with only 2 INT, while also rushing for 300 yards and 4 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry. He is making all the right decisions, and Kliff Kingsbury is proving his chops as an offensive coordinator in this league. Daniels leads a Washington offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 31.0 points per game, 4th in total offense at 392.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play. The Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team because they have a poor defense, allowing 6.0 yards per play which ranks 27th in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens have an elite offense as well this season ranking 2nd in scoring at 29.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 447.6 yards per game and 1st at 6.9 yards per play. The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play defensively. Both offenses should have their way Sunday in what will likely be the biggest shootout of the week. The Ravens are 4-1 OVER in all games this season and the Commanders are 4-1 OVER in all games this season as well. Both are dead nuts OVER teams. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Colts v. Titans OVER 42.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 14 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Colts/Titans OVER 42.5 The Indianapolis Colts may have the worst defense in the NFL with all their injuries right now. They just gave up 37 points and 497 total yards to what was a previously dead Jaguars offense last week. They now rank 32nd in total defense allowing 419.2 yards per game and 30th at 6.2 yards per play. They are without three defensive linemen including DeForest Buckner, they are without their best CB in JuJu Brents and they are without another linebacker. The Titans are coming off their bye week and in line for their best offensive output of the season. Bye weeks are very beneficial to first-year head coaches like Brian Callahan. He gets Will Levis back from injury this week, and Levis will look like Montana up against this Indianapolis defense. The Titans should be able to name their number against this Colts stop unit. Shane Steichen is an offensive-minded head coach for the Colts and he is a dead nuts OVER coach because he likes to push the tempo and doesn't worry about defense. This Indianapolis offense ranks 4th in the NFL averaging 6.4 yards per play. They should do enough against the Titans to push this one up and OVER the total. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-13-24 | Jaguars v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 115 h 22 m | Show |
20* Jaguars/Bears NFL London No-Brainer on OVER 44 The Chicago Bears picked up the tempo last week with a season-high 36% of their snaps coming out of no-huddle. They now have the 2nd-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL and it is working as Caleb Williams has looking much more comfortable the last three weeks. Williams threw for 363 yards against the Colts three weeks ago. He led the Bears to 24 points against the Rams two weeks ago, and last week he led the Bears to a season-high 36 points and 424 total yards. Of course, the Colts, Rams and Panthers have three of the worst defenses in the NFL. But now Williams gets another soft defense in the Jaguars, who rank 30th in scoring defense at 28.6 points per game allowed, 31st in total defense at 393.4 yards per game and 31st at 6.2 yards per play allowed. They allow points on 50% of their drives and have allowed the most 20-plus yard plays in the NFL this season. The Jaguars are going more man-to-man this season and it's not working as they do not have the personnel to do it, especially in the secondary. They are missing their best cover corner in Tyson Campbell due to injury, which is a big part of the problem. I expect Williams to have a field day against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 34 points to the Colts and 47 to the Bills. The Jaguars had their best offensive output of the season last week with 37 points and 497 total yards against the Colts. Reinforcements are on the way as both TE Evan Engram and WR Gabe Davis are expected to return from injury this week. Now the Jaguars are at full strength on offense. They face a Chicago defense that has been good this season, but one that is dealing with a ton of injuries heading into London. SS Jaquan Brisker is out, CB Tyrique Stevenson is doubtful, and his backup Terell Smith is out. Trevor Lawrence should be able to take advantage of this Chicago secondary with all the key pieces they will be missing. This total of 44 is too low for this game Sunday morning. Bet the OVER in London. |
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10-12-24 | Boise State v. Hawaii +21.5 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii +21.5 The Boise State Broncos are getting a lot of hype right now with a 4-1 start and their lone loss coming to Oregon. RB Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy as well. With all this hype comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to, and I'll play against them and side with the value on home underdog Hawaii catching more than three touchdowns as a result. This is a tough spot for Boise State playing for a 4th consecutive week and now having to travel the the island. Their last three games were at home, and now they have to go on the road where they barely beat Georgia Southern 56-45 and lost to Oregon in their other two road games. Hawaii is 2-1 at home this season with a 3-point loss to UCLA in their lone defeat. The Warriors are the much fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before losing 27-24 at San Diego State last week. QB Brayden Schager is coming off his two best games of the season throwing for 374 yards and 4 TD in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa at home and throwing for 272 yards and 3 TD in that loss to San Diego State last week. Hawaii actually has the better defense in this game. The Warriors are only allowing 309.4 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. They have been very good against the run, allowing 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. That will be key in trying to stop Jeanty and this Boise State rushing attack. Boise State's defense leaves a lot to be desired and is the clear weakness of the team. The Broncos allow 402.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. They have been horrible against the pass, allowing 278.8 passing yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt. That makes this a great matchup for the Warriors with their ability to throw the ball on offense and stop the run on defense. They will never be out of this game. Bet Hawaii Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Iowa State v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -105 | 111 h 54 m | Show |
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3 This is a battle for first place in the Big 12 as the 2-0 Iowa State Cyclones visit the 2-0 West Virginia Mountaineers. I think the wrong team is favored here. This is going to be a very hostile atmosphere at night for an 8:00 EST start time, and the Mountaineers are going with their sweet black coal rush jerseys. Iowa State has benefited from a soft schedule during its 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. The five wins have come against North Dakota, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor and Iowa. They have really faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, and this will be by far their toughest defensive test of the season against this high-octane WVU offense. The Mountaineers average 6.4 yards pre play, 5.3 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt which are all elite numbers. Iowa State was life and death with Baylor at home last week trailing 21-19 early in the 3rd quarter. The Cyclones needed a big finish to pull away. It cost them a lot of injuries on defense as they were down to two starters on defense at one point in the 2H last week. And these defensive injuries the Cyclones are dealing with aren't getting factored into the spread enough this week. While the Cyclones will be playing for a 4th consecutive week, the Mountaineers just had a bye two weeks ago before crushing Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week. They made easy work of the Cowboys outgaining them 558 to 225 for the game, or by 333 total yards. They were able to coast in the 2H after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, and they will still be fresh for this game Saturday as a result. Home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule and the losses to Pitt and Penn State don't look so bad now considering those two teams are a combined 10-0. I like the Mountaineers to pull off the upset at home Saturday night. Bet West Virginia Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Ole Miss v. LSU +3.5 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 110 h 24 m | Show | |
15* Ole Miss/LSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on LSU +3.5 I love the spot for the LSU Tigers this week. They return from their bye, getting two full weeks to rest and prepare to beat the Ole Miss Rebels. This will also be a night game in Baton Rouge, and there's arguably no bigger home-field advantage in all of college football than a night game in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week. The Rebels are coming off two physical games against Kentucky and South Carolina the last two weeks. After getting upset 20-17 by Kentucky as 15.5-point home favorites, they rebounded nicely with a 27-3 win at South Carolina last week. But that was a misleading win against South Carolina. They only outgained the Gamecocks by 112 yards. Their offense pretty much died in the second half after losing star receiver Tre Harris to injury. They scored just 3 points after intermission. Harris means everything to their offense as he leads the nation with 52 receptions for 885 yards and 5 TD. He is doubtful to be back this week, making LSU's task defensively to stop this Ole Miss offense much easier. LSU is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings in Baton Rouge and at least 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings in this series. I fully expect the Tigers to win this game outright given their rest and preparation advantages coming in. Brian Kelly is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in his last 17 home games off a bye. Bet LSU Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Florida +14.5 v. Tennessee | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show | |
15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida +14.5 The Florida Gators have been impressive since a 41-17 loss to Miami in the opener. That loss has kept the Gators undervalued since, and they have responded by going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The lone loss came to Texas A&M by a final of 33-20, and that loss doesn't look so bad now with A&M blowing out Missouri last week. The Gators won 45-28 at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites following the loss to A&M. They had a bye the next week, then returned last week and beat UCF 24-13 as 1-point home underdogs. That win was mighty impressive from a defensive standpoint as UCF came into that game leading the country in rushing. Florida held UCF to 108 rushing yards on 40 carries and 273 total yards overall. Tennessee has been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against a very soft schedule of Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and Oklahoma. The 25-15 win over Oklahoma was far from impressive considering the Sooners were playing with their backup QB and missing almost all of their wide receivers due to injury. They only managed 345 total yards against Oklahoma's defense. Last week, Tennessee was upset 19-14 at Arkansas as 14-point favorites. The Razorbacks outgained the Vols 434 to 334, or by 100 total yards, so there was nothing fluky about it. That's the second straight game Tennessee's offense has been held in check by a respectable defense, and with the way this Florida defense is trending, I think the Gators can hold them in check as well. They will stop the run and force the Vols to try and beat them through the air. Florida hasn't lost by more than 14 points to Tennessee since 1992 which was 32 meetings ago. That makes for a 31-0 system backing the Gators pertaining to this 14.5-point spread. The Gators are 17-2 SU in the last 19 meetings. Bet Florida Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | UTSA v. Rice OVER 50.5 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Rice OVER 50.5 UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team that plays fast and plays zero defense. The Roadrunners rank 9th in tempo with 22.6 seconds in between snaps. They rank 110th in scoring defense allowing 31.6 points per game, and they have benefitted from getting to play Holy Cross and Kennesaw State. UTSA's offense got going last time out with 456 total yards against a pretty good East Carolina defense after scoring 45 points on Holy Cross. This is a Rice defense that has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses, but still allowed 34 points to Sam Houston State, 33 to Houston and 37 to Army. Rice's offense has been held in check this season due to playing a tough schedule of opposing defenses. They finally got a reprieve last time out and put up 463 total yards against Charlotte with 209 rushing and 254 passing. I like Rice QB EJ Warner, who meant everything to Temple last year, and he should have a big game against this UTSA defense. Rice also plays faster than average ranking 59th in tempo at 26.1 seconds in between snaps. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Mississippi State +34 v. Georgia | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +34 The Georgia Bulldogs are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall since the start of last season. They are a team that gets a lot of hype for what they did in previous seasons winning the national title, and with that hype comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to. Georgia is 1-4 ATS this season and has no business being a 34-point favorite against Mississippi State this week. This is the ultimate sandwich spot coming off three straight tough SEC games against Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn and with an even bigger showdown with Texas on deck on the road next week. They won't be concerned with Mississippi State this week at all. That's going to make it very difficult to cover this 34-point spread. The Bulldogs want to just get in and get out with a win and try and keep everyone healthy for that game against Texas considering injuries and suspensions have been a big part of Georgia's early struggles this season. I like the spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are come off their bye week, and bye weeks are much more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Jeff Lebby. He will get the most out of this extra week with his new team. I also like what I saw from the Bulldogs going into their bye week as they only lost 35-13 at Texas as 37-point underdogs. Instead of playing at a break-neck pace like they had prior, they slowed things down with freshman QB Michael Van Buren running the offense. He played well with 144 passing yards on 23 attempts. I think Mississippi State will deploy the same strategy against Georgia, slowing the game down to try and make it competitive. Van Buren is now 19 of 34 passing for 244 yards against Texas and Florida, which are two very good defenses. He won't be phased by Georgia. 24 of the last 25 meetings between Georgia and Mississippi State were decided by 30 points or less, making for a 24-1 system backing the underdog in this one. Bet Mississippi State Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Arizona v. BYU -3.5 | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 50 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Arizona/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on BYU -3.5 The BYU Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with upset road wins over SMU and Baylor, as well as an upset home win over Kansas State. They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against Arizona this week. BYU had a bye last week, so the Cougars have had two full weeks to prepare for Arizona and to rest up and get healthy. Provo is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and the Cougars will have an even bigger home-field advantage with fans excited about the fact that they are in the Top 25 and a Big 12 title contenter. The spot is much worse for Arizona coming off a pair of physical games at Utah and at home against Texas Tech. They are getting too much love for their win at Utah, which bogged down in the red zone and blew several scoring opportunities. They lost 28-22 at home to Texas Tech last week. These teams have a common opponent that shows BYU is by far the superior team. Arizona lost 31-7 at Kansas State, while BYU crushed Kansas State 38-9 at home. The Cougars have the much better defense in this one as well. They allow just 15.8 points per game, 292.6 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play. Arizona allows 23.6 points per game, 350.8 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season. Bet BYU Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | Louisville v. Virginia +7.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Virginia +7.5 The Louisville Cardinals have been through the gauntlet the last three weeks with three straight games that went down to the wire against SMU, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. I question how much they have left in the tank for Virginia this week. The Cavaliers had a bye two weeks ago before returning to beat Boston College 24-14 as 1.5-point home favorites last week. Virginia improved to 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS this season and has been an undervalued commodity. They beat Coastal Carolina 43-24 as 3.5-point road favorites going into their bye, and they beat Wake Forest 31-30 on the road. Even in their lone loss to Maryland it was a misleading 27-13 home loss. They were only outgained by 21 yards in the game. The Terrapins scored 20 unanswered points in the 2H and took advantage of a +4 turnover margin against Virginia. I like the way the Cavaliers responded in their last two games, especially after falling behind 14-0 to Boston College last week to score the final 24 points of the game. They have a lot of confidence now and feel like they are a legit ACC contender. Virginia is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville with only one loss by more than 7 points. The spot really favors the home underdog Cavaliers who are the fresher team. This line should be much closer to PK. Bet Virginia Saturday. |
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10-12-24 | California v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -3 The Pittsburgh Panthers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season. They will eventually be overvalued, but this isn't the spot this week. The Panthers have impressive wins over Cincinnati, West Virginia and North Carolina with two of those wins coming on the road. They just had a bye two weeks ago so they will be fresh and ready to go this week. But this is more of a play against California than it is a play on Pitt. The Bears had ESPN's College Gameday on campus last week with the Miami Hurricanes coming to town. They looked well on their way to an upset victory leading 35-10 in the 3rd quarter, but that's when it all went downhill. The Bears blew that 25-point lead and lost 39-38 on a last-second TD by Miami, which scored the final 21 points of the game in the final 10 minutes to escape with yet another victory. I just don't see how Cal gets back up off the mat after that loss. It's the type of loss that beats a team twice. Now the Bears have the long flight East to Pittsburgh after playing a late-night game that didn't get over until after midnight Pacific time. They have a tired defense that was on the field for 38 minutes and 86 plays against Miami. Now they must face a Pitt offense that runs the 4th-fastest tempo in the entire country. Five-star QB and Alabama transfer Eli Holstein has thrived in this new up-tempo offense. He is competing 65.5% of his passes for 1,567 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 265 yards and 3 scores. The Bears won't have the energy to try and defense this offense, and this one has blowout written all over it. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. |
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10-11-24 | Northwestern v. Maryland OVER 45 | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 44 m | Show |
20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Northwestern/Maryland OVER 45 Maryland is a dead nuts OVER team this season. The Terrapins are 4-1 OVER in their five games with 51 or more combined points in four of the five. That includes their 42-28 loss to Indiana last time out that saw 70 combined points. The Terrapins boast an offense that puts up 451.4 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play including 304.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country. QB Billy Edwards has been better than expected, completing 72.3% of his passes for 1,444 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio. This is a poor Maryland defense that allowed 27 points to Michigan State, 20 to Villanova and 42 to Indiana. Northwestern has taken a step back defensively this season and just found itself in a 41-24 shootout last week against Indiana that saw 65 combined points. QB Lausch has taken over as starting QB and actually gives the Wildcats the threat of the pass. He threw for 243 yards and 2 TD against a very good Indiana defense last week, while also rushing for 34 yards on 9 carries. This has been an OVER series with the OVER going 3-1 in the last four meetings with 46 or more combined points in all four, and 55 or more in three of them. Conditions look perfect for a shootout Friday night with no wind or rain in the forecast. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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10-10-24 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 36-24 | Win | 100 | 63 h 30 m | Show |
20* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -3 I like backing elite teams who are motivated. That will be the case for the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night when they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers sit at 2-3 on the season but should be 4-1 at worst and possibly 5-0. If they had the record they deserved, they would be more than 3-point favorites here. The 49ers absolutely blew two games in the 4th quarter to the Rams and Cardinals. They led the Cardinals 23-10 at halftime last week and lost 24-23. They led the Rams 24-14 in the final seven minutes and lost 27-24. They also lost 23-17 to the Vikings on the road despite outgaining them. Despite their 2-3 record, the 49ers are clearly still one of the best teams in the NFL when you dive into the numbers. They rank 2nd in total offense at 407.4 yards per game and 2nd at 6.5 yards per play. They rank 10th in total defense allowing 307.8 yards per game, so they are outgaining opponents by 100 yards per game. They have also gotten healthier in recent weeks and are very healthy heading into this game with Seattle. The Seahawks were overvalued after a 3-0 start against the weakest schedule in the league beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins. I successfully faded them the last two weeks backing the Lions -4 in a 42-29 win over the Seahawks and the Giants +7 in a 29-20 win over Seattle. I am fading them again this week for many of the same reasons. This Seattle defense is dealing with a ton of injuries, and their lack of talent and depth has really shown the last two weeks. They allowed 42 points to the Lions as Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing. They allowed 29 points and 420 total yards to a Giants team last week that was missing WR Malik Nabers and RB Devin Singletary, arguably their two best playmakers on offense. The Seahawks are without LB Nowsu, LB Onujiogu and FS Reed II. LB Hall, DT Murhpy and CB Woolen all missed practice on Tuesday and are doubtful. S Love is limited and will likely play. Now the Seahawks are on a short week here and gassed defensively after being on the field for over 37 minutes against the Giants on Sunday. They gave up 175 rushing yards against a Giants team that previously could not run the football. Now they must try to tackle the physical Jordan Mason, who has 536 rushing yards and 5.1 per carry through five games in Christian McCaffrey's absence. The Seahawks got to face four poor offenses in five games and we saw what the Lions did to them scoring 42 points. The 49ers are on the Lions' level offensively if not better. I just don't see Seattle getting many stops in this game, and the 49ers will get enough stops to cover this short number. The 49ers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins coming by 8 points or more. Bet the 49ers Thursday. |
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10-07-24 | Saints v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 167 h 17 m | Show |
20* Saints/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 43.5 The Chiefs were already handcuffed offensively when it was announced that WR Hollywood Brown would miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery. Now they lost their best weapon in WR Rashee Rice to a knee injury and he will not be available for Week 5. They were already without RB Isaiah Pacheco, who was the heart and soul of the offense. We saw this last year with the Chiefs limited by injuries offensively having to rely on their defense on their way to winning the Super Bowl. But that was when they had Rice and Pacheco leading the way. Now they are without both, and the Chiefs are going to have to rely on an aging Travis Kelce, a rookie in Xavier Worthy and several replacement-level receivers moving forward unless they make a trade. They are relying on defense now more than ever. This Kansas City defense has been dynamite in paving the way for a 4-0 start for the Chiefs. They rank 9th allowing 18.0 points per game despite facing both the Bengals and Ravens, who have two of the best offenses in the NFL. Now they should have their way with a New Orleans Saints offense that is banged up along the offensive line. The strength of Kansas City's defense is their front seven, and they will make life very difficult for Drew Brees and company for four quarters in this one. The Saints have a very good defense and it's what keeps them competitive every year under defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen. The Saints rank 7th in scoring defense at 17.5 points per game. Keep in mind that number would be even lower if not for two fluky non-offensive touchdowns by the Falcons last week with a tipped interception that was returned for a TD and a muffed punt that was recovered in the end zone for another TD. Given the Saints having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL without their best offensive lineman in C Erik McCoy, and the Chiefs being without all of their best weapons, this has the makings of a defensive slug fest Monday night. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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10-06-24 | Cowboys v. Steelers -125 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -125 | 150 h 2 m | Show |
20* Cowboys/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh ML -125 The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL while the Dallas Cowboys have one of the worst. That's the biggest reason I am on the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night as they host the Cowboys. The Steelers rank 2nd in scoring defense at 13.2 points per game, 4th in total defense at 261.2 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per play allowed. The Cowboys rank 26th in scoring defense at 26.0 points per game, 26th in total defense at 355.2 yards per game and 23rd at 5.8 yards per play allowed. The Cowboys are 13th in total offense at 330.8 yards per game while the Steelers are 18th at 317.8 yards per game, so there's not as big of a gap between these offenses as what is being perceived. The Cowboys were already terrible defensively when they had their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and Dexter Lawrence healthy. But now that's not even the case any more as the Cowboys lost both Lawrence and Parsons to injuries last week against the Giants. Both will not play this week. CB Calen Carson is questionable, and they were already without their best CB in DaRon Bland to the IR. Things are getting worse before they get better for this Dallas defense. We saw the Cowboys get shredded by a Ravens team that runs a similar read-option offense to the Steelers two weeks ago. The Ravens rushed for 274 yards on them. Justin Fields and company will be able to get whatever they want on the ground. Fields is playing well, completing 70.6% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 145 yards and 3 scores through four games. He threw for 312 yards and a TD in trying to lead the comeback against the Colts last week to prove he can do it when he has to throw it. The Cowboys were fortunate to beat the lowly Giants 20-15 last week. Daniel Jones didn't get much help from his receivers with several key drops that prevented points. He went 29-of-40 passing for 281 yards against the Cowboys. The Giants held this Dallas offense in check as well with just 293 total yards. This is a one-dimensional Dallas offense that cannot run the football, which bodes well for the Steelers, who rank 8th in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 174.5 yards per game through the air. This is a terrible matchup for the injury-ravaged Cowboys. Mike Tomlin is 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games off a loss. Bet the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday night. |
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10-06-24 | Giants +6 v. Seahawks | 29-20 | Win | 100 | 144 h 22 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6 This is a terrible spot for the Seattle Seahawks. They just played the late game on Monday Night Football against the Detroit Lions. Now they have to travel back to Seattle and play on a short week hosting the New York Giants Sunday afternoon. Making matters worse is this is a sandwich spot for the Seahawks. They have an even bigger game on deck against the 49ers on Thursday and some of their focus will be on that game, especially when it comes to handling all their injuries. They won't be fully focused on the Giants this week, and as a result I think they are on upset alert. This is a very favorable spot for the Giants, who played the Cowboys last Thursday. So they have had a mini bye week coming into this one to get healthy and prepared to face the Seahawks. Sitting at 1-3 on the season, the Giants are looking at this game as a must-win. The Seahawks sit at 3-1 and alone in first place in the NFC West, so they aren't looking at this as a must-win. The Seahawks are a fraudulent team that got off to a 3-0 start against the easiest schedule in the NFL. They beat the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix 26-20 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 1. They needed OT to beat the Patriots 23-20 as 3-point road favorites in Week 2. Then they had to fly all the way back to Seattle and took advantage of a short-handed Dolphins team in a 24-3 victory as 4-point favorites. The Dolphins were starting Skyler Thompson at QB, and he got hurt and they were down to third-stringer Tim Boyle in the second half. That's why I faded them last week and took the Lions -4. It was a lot of travel for the Seahawks and they weren't as good as their 3-0 record. That proved to be the case as the Lions beat them 42-29. Jared Goff went a perfect 18-of-18 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns against what is a really banged up, tired Seattle defense that is lacking depth. Five starters are questionable heading into this one in DE Leonard Williams, LB Uchenna Nwosu, LB Jerome Baker, LB Boye Mafe and FS Julian Love. FS Jerrick Reed II is out, NT Cameron Young is out and DE Byron Murphy II is questionable. The Seahawks have a very poor offensive line, and the strength of the Giants is their defensive line, so they will make life tough on Geno Smith in this one. I like what I've seen from Daniel Jones the last three weeks. After a 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1 which doesn't look as bad now with the Vikings sitting at 4-0 with wins over the Packers, 49ers and Texans since, the Giants have been much more competitive the last three weeks. They lost 21-18 at Washington only because they lost their FG kicker to injury prior to the game, and it cost them at least a shot at OT and likely a win. They won 21-15 at Cleveland as 6.5-point dogs in Week 2 even after spotting the Browns a TD to start the game after a fumbled KO return. They gave the Cowboys all they wanted last week in a 20-15 loss as 5.5-point home dogs, and drops by New York receivers were the culprit. They held Dallas' high-powered offense to less than 300 total yards. The Giants have historically been a much better road team than a home team over the last decade-plus, and that's the case again this season. They were very competitive against the Commanders and Browns on the road and performed poorly against the Vikings and Cowboys at home. The New York fans just aren't that gracious to this team at home, and sometimes it's just better for these players to get away from it by going on the road. The Giants are extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point in the season. Star WR Malik Nabers did suffer a concussion against the Cowboys last week, but the average time missed is 8 days for concussions, and since they played last Thursday they will have 10 days in between games. He should be back, and he has made all the difference for this offense. Nabers has 35 receptions for 386 yards and 3 TD through four games. The Giants are good enough to give the Seahawks a run for their money considering the good spot for them and the awful spot for the home team. Bet the Giants Sunday. |
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10-06-24 | Browns v. Commanders OVER 44 | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 136 h 48 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Commanders OVER 44 The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona. They have punted just once in the last three weeks. They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for. Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games. Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season. He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot. Daniels is making all the right decisions right now. Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season. The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week. They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week. The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive. No question this Cleveland offense hasn't looked good, and a lot of that has to do with offensive line injuries and missing TD David Njoku. They could get some pieces back on the offensive line this week, plus Njoku is expected to return. They should have their best offensive output of the season against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in scoring at 25.5 points per game, 27th in total defense at 357.0 yards per game and 31st at 6.4 yards per play allowed. Washington is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in the three overs. They would be 4-0 OVER if not for the Giants losing their kicker in a game that would have been tied 21-21 at the end of regulation if the Giants kicked extra points on all three of their TD's. I see Washington getting to at least 27 points and Cleveland getting to at least 20 in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-06-24 | Browns v. Commanders -3 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 161 h 14 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Commanders -3 The Washington Commanders delivered 16 straight scoring drives beginning from Week 1 through their first two drives of Week 4 against Arizona. They have punted just once in the last three weeks. They have three straight wins over the Giants, Bengals and Cardinals and they are much better than they get credit for. Jayden Daniels has delivered more scoring drives (23) than incompletions (19) through his first four games. Daniels set the NFL record with 82.1% completions through the first four weeks of the season. He has thrown for 897 yards with a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he has rushed for 218 yards and 4 scores to boot. Daniels is making all the right decisions right now. The same cannot be said for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns. They are 1-3 this season with their lone win coming against the only remaining winless team in the Jacksonville Jaguars. They weren't able to beat a depleted Raiders team last week that was without their two best players in WR Davante Adamas and DE Maxx Crosby. They lost 20-16 despite getting lucky fumble return TD on defense. Watson has been abysmal. He is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt with a 4-to-3 TD/INT ratio. Of course, it hurts that his offensive line is more banged up than any other offensive line in the league. Seven offensive linemen are on the injury report as they have been without LT Jedrick Willis, RT Zack Conklin and now they lost C Ethan Pocic to an injury against the Raiders. It's possible some guys return this week, but even if they do I still like the Commanders. Washington has compiled a 3-1 record despite playing three of their first four games on the road. They are 1-0 at home scoring on all seven drives against the Giants. Fans are thirsty for a winner in Washington, and they will turn out to support Daniels and company in a big way Sunday afternoon. It will be the best home-field advantage the Commanders have had since Robert Griffin III was stealing the show in his prime. Cleveland had the worst scoring defense in the entire NFL on the road last season. The Raiders had the worst rushing attack in the NFL heading into their game with Cleveland last week. They promptly rushed for 152 yards and 5.2 per carry against Cleveland last week. The Commanders are going to be able to run it up the middle on the Browns, and that is going to open the field for Daniels to continue to thrive. Oddsmakers are simply too slow to adjust to the fact that the Commanders are a contender, while the Browns are a dead team walking with all their injuries. It seems as though teammates don't even like Deshaun Watson, which is understandable. This line should be much closer to -7 than -3. Bet the Commanders Sunday. |
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10-06-24 | Panthers v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 141 h 17 m | Show |
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Panthers/Bears OVER 42 The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with Andy Dalton at quarterback and arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Panthers combined for 58 points with the Bengals last week and 58 points with the Raiders in the game prior in Dalton's two starts at quarterback. They put up 36 points on the Raiders with 437 total yards as Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. They put up 24 points on the Bengals behind 375 total yards and 220 passing and 2 touchdowns from Darnold. Simply put, Dave Canales finally has a competent quarterback to run his offense. But the Panthers are going to have to win shootouts if they are going to be competitive. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 32.2 points per game. Things are getting worse before they get better due to injuries. They just lost LB Shaq Thomspn to injury last week. Fellow LB Josey Jewell is questionable after suffering an injury. NT Shy Tuttle is questionable after missing the last couple games. DE Derrick Brown is on IR, and four key secondary pieces are on IR. Chicago QB Caleb Williams is in line for his best game yet this week. He went 17-of-23 passing against a bad Rams defense last week and led the Bears to 24 points. He just got WR Keenan Allen back from injury and now has his full compliment of weapons. De'Andre Swift finally got going with 93 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week. I think the Bears can get to 24-plus in this one, and the Panthers should get 20-plus, thus this 42-point total is too low. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-05-24 | Hawaii v. San Diego State OVER 46.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 115 h 29 m | Show | |
15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawaii/San Diego State OVER 46.5 San Diego State made a great hire bringing in one of the best offensive minds in the country in former Kent State head coach Sean Lewis. He is the architect of the 'Flash Fast' offense that turned around the Golden Flashes and put their name on the map. It was always going to take some time for these players to get accustomed to this offense, and they weren't done any favors with a brutal schedule to start facing two elite defenses in Oregon State and California in two of their first three games. But they got a bye after those two games and grew a lot on that bye week. They came back last week and had a solid offensive output with 364 total yards against Central Michigan. But they allowed 452 yards to the Chippewas and this is a leaky defense that can be exposed. That game was much lower scoring than it should have been with a 22-21 final, and I think that is providing us some line value on the OVER this week. In fact, these teams are a combined 7-1 to the under this season, which is why this total has been set so low. We will take advantage. Hawaii also had a tough schedule to start with losses to UCLA and Sam Houston State, which looks vastly improved this season. They finally got their offense going last time out in a 36-7 win over Northern Iowa. They put up 528 total yards, and they have had a bye since to get even better. San Diego State beat Hawaii 41-34 in an absolute shootout last year that saw 75 combined points. All we need is 47-plus here to cash this OVER. And a sneaky reason I'm on the OVER is because both offenses play fast. San Diego State ranks 8th in tempo at 22.3 seconds between plays while Hawaii ranks 34th at 24.9 seconds. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Nevada v. San Jose State OVER 48.5 | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 16 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nevada/San Jose State OVER 48.5 San Jose State's offense looks vastly improved this season. They just put up 52 points on Washington State in an absolute OT thriller. They now rank 38th in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game. They also play fast ranking 21st in seconds per play, which is an over bettors' dream. Nevada has a much better offense than most expected as well. The Wolf Pack are averaging 379 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. They rush for 193.4 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, and San Jose State allows 155.2 rushing yards per game. They will have success on the ground which will open up their improved passing game. Nevada ranks 94th allowing 5.8 yards per play on defense. San Jose State will keep the pedal to the metal for four quarters, and Nevada will have to try and keep up. Both teams are fresh coming off bye weeks and will be looking to get up and down offensively. This total should not be less than 50 given San Jose State's profile as a prolific, fast-paced offense controlling the tempo playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Michigan v. Washington -145 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
20* Michigan/Washington NBC No-Brainer on Washington ML -145 The Washington Huskies should be 5-0 right now. If they were 5-0 like they should be, they would be bigger favorites here against Michigan. We'll take advantage of this line value and back the Huskies on the Money Line Saturday night. I say Washington should be 5-0 because they lost 24-19 to Washington State on a neutral despite outgaining them 452 to 381, or by 71 total yards. But that fluky loss was nothing compared to what happened against Rutgers on last Friday. Washington lost 21-18 at Rutgers despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 521 to 299, or by 222 total yards. The Huskies will be looking to take out their frustration on the Wolverines at home in Seattle where it will be a hostile atmosphere Saturday night. They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it's even better at night. They also want revenge from losing to Michigan in the National Championship last year. While both teams are down compared to those teams last year, Washington is a lot less down than Michigan is this season. Washington has elite numbers. The Huskies rank 20th in total offense at 469.4 yards per game and 18th at 7.2 yards per play. They rank 10th in total defense at 249.8 yards per game and 8th at 4.1 yards per play. QB Will Rogers is completing 74.8% of his passes for 1,354 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. While Michigan's defense is solid once again, keep in mind they allowed 31 points to Texas, 24 to Minnesota, 24 to USC and 18 to Arkansas State the last four weeks. They are 1-4 ATS, and while it's partly due to the defense taking a step back, it's mostly due to not having a quarterback or a passing game on offense. The Wolverins rank 130th in the country in passing at 115.4 yards per game. Their one-dimensional approach will not work against Washington, which allows just 3.7 yards per carry this season. The Huskies will stack the box and force QB Alex Orji to try and beat them. Orji is averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt this season. This will be the first road game of the season for the Wolverines as they somehow were allowed to schedule five straight home games to open the season. It will not go well for Orji and the Wolverines in Seattle Saturday night. Bet Washington on the Money Line. |
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10-05-24 | West Virginia +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 112 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4.5 The spot really favors the West Virginia Mountaineers in this one. They are coming off their bye week, while Oklahoma State will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and has been through the gauntlet. I question how much the Cowboys have left in the tank this week as a result. Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 in OT four weeks ago despite getting outgained by nearly 300 yards. They went on the road and beat a bad Tulsa team 45-10 three weeks ago before returning home to face Utah. They trailed 22-3 to the Utes before making it interesting in garbage time in a misleading 22-19 loss. And last week they were crushed 42-20 at Kansas State. Utah and Kansas State both play a physical brand of football that takes a lot out of the opponent. After having to face both those teams in consecutive weeks, I think Oklahoma State is battered and bruised right now and won't be ready for this fresh WVU team. I also just think the Cowboys were grossly overvalued coming into the season and remain overvalued still today. The Cowboys had a miracle run to the Big 12 Championship Game last year winning close game after close game. They have been exposed this season, and really should be 2-3 instead of 3-2 because they should have lost to Arkansas. Now with two Big 12 losses already, their chances of winning the conference title are slim to none. Oklahoma State has no running game on offense, and they have one of the worst defenses in the country. The Cowboys rank 126th in total defense at 480.6 yards per game allowed. West Virginia has played a similarly difficult schedule and has much better numbers than the Cowboys. They lost to Penn State and Pittsburgh before topping Kansas. They had no business losing to Pitt blowing a 10-point lead in the final three minutes. They rebounded nicely against the Jayhawks to give them positive momentum heading into their bye, and they have all their goals in front of them at 1-0 in Big 12 play now. Wrong team favored here. Bet West Virginia Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Auburn +24.5 v. Georgia | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 114 h 31 m | Show | |
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +24.5 Auburn's 2-3 record has them way undervalued right now. The Tigers are certainly one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of college football. Their three losses all came by 10 points or less, and they had way better stats than their opponents in two of the three defeats. Auburn ranks 23rd in the country in total offense at 466 yards per game and 8th at 7.6 yards per play. The Tigers rank 50th in total defense at 329 yards per game and 39th at 4.8 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 137 yards per game and a whopping 2.8 yards per play, which are the numbers of a 4-1 or 5-0 team and not one that is 2-3. We'll take advantage of Auburn being undervalued this week. It won't take much for Auburn to get back up off the mat this week to face Georgia, which have been the kings of college football over the last few seasons. But it will take a lot for Georgia to get back up off the mat to face Auburn after a deflating 41-34 loss at Alabama last week. The Bulldogs fought all they way back from a 28-0 deficit to take a 34-33 lead, only to allow another bomb and a game-winner by Alabama before throwing an INT in the end zone to end it going in for the tie. It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice. This Georgia team just isn't as good as the one they put on the field the last three seasons. They have offensive line problems, Carson Beck is lacking weapons and making bad throws, and their defense is leaky. They only beat Kentucky 13-12 as 21.5-point favorites the game before Alabama. They should not be 24.5-point favorites against this underrated Auburn team. Auburn took Georgia to the wire last season in a 27-20 loss as 14-point home underdogs. And Auburn is better this season than they were last year, while Georgia isn't as good. The value is too good to pass up here. Bet Auburn Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Indiana -13.5 v. Northwestern | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 113 h 10 m | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Indiana -13.5 Indiana is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and would be 5-0 ATS against the opening line. The Hoosiers are an absolute wagon this season and one of the most improved teams in the country. They have been grossly undervalued and continue to be undervalued this week as only 13.5-point favorites against a Northwestern team that doesn't have the offense to keep up. Indiana won its first four games by a combined score of 202-37. The Hoosiers took a step up in class last week and handled Maryland 42-28 as 7.5-point favorites. They won and covered despite being -4 in turnovers! That just shows the potential of this team. Indiana has no weaknesses. The Hoosiers rank 6th in scoring offense at 48.8 points per game, 11th in total offense at 513 yards per game and 10th at 7.6 yards per play. They rank 19th in scoring defense at 13.0 points per game, 10th in total defense at 239.6 yards per game and 15th at 4.2 yards per play. They are outgaining teams by nearly 300 yards per game and a whopping 3.4 yards per play. Northwestern has another good defense this season, but the Wildcats are even worse off offensively than they were last year. They rank 119th in scoring offense at 17.2 points per game, 121st in total offense at 294.5 yard per game and 121st at 4.6 yards per play. They have faced three poor offenses in Miami Ohio, Duke and Eastern Illinois before losing 24-5 to Washington. The Wildcats managed just 102 total yards and gave up 391 to Washington, so that was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. I think we see a similar blowout here in Indiana's favor, except the Hoosiers will score more than 24. They should be fully focused knowing they get to rest next week with a bye on deck. The Wildcats have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country. Bet Indiana Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | East Carolina v. Charlotte OVER 46.5 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 113 h 27 m | Show |
20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on East Carolina/Charlotte OVER 46.5 East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team with how fast they play. They rank 3rd in the country in tempo averaging 21.2 seconds in between snaps. It means their defense is going to be on the field a lot, and that defense has been exposed the last couple weeks. They blew a 17-point lead and lost 35-24 to Liberty two weeks ago. Last week, they gave up 456 total yards to what was a previously dead UTSA offense and were fortunate to get out with a 30-20 victory. Charlotte is in line for one of its best offensive outputs of the season this week. East Carolina could score a season high as well against a Charlotte defense that ranks 118th in scoring at 33.2 points per game, 121st in total defense at 453.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play. It was going to take some time for this ECU offense to gel in the new Air Raid attack, and it looks like they have the last few weeks. Both defenses are tired right now playing for a 6th consecutive week. I think the offenses really have an advantage here in what will be a fast-paced game, and there's no way this total should be set below 50. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Army -10.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 49-7 | Win | 100 | 110 h 16 m | Show |
20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Army -10.5 The Army Black Knights are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and taking no prisoners. They went 6-6 each of the last two seasons and were not invited to a bowl game. That's why there will be no letdowns with this team until they get that elusive 7th win. Army beat Lehigh 42-7 as a 32-point favorite, FAU 24-7 as a 1-point dog, Rice 37-14 as a 7.5-point favorite and Temple 42-14 as 11.5-point favorites. There was nothing fluky about any of those wins. They have one of their best offenses in program history, plus one of their best defenses as well. Army ranks 1st in the entire country in rushing at 371.2 yards per game, but they also have more of a passing element this season averaging 73.2 passing yards per game and 9.5 yards per attempt. QB Bryson Daily is one of the best QB's in school history. He has rushed for 492 yards and 8 TD while averaging 6.0 per carry, and this team really follows him into battle with how big of a warrior he is seeking out contact. I've been equally impressed with this Army defense. The Black Knights 7th in scoring defense at 10.5 points per game and 13th in total defense at 258.2 yards per game. They held what was previously a high-powered Temple offense since switching over to Evan Simon at QB to just 14 points last Thursday. Now the Black Knights have had two extra days to rest and recover and get ready to crush Tulsa. Tulsa is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week. The Golden Hurricane are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS this season. They have been through the gauntlet the last four weeks. After losing 28-24 at Arkansas State, they were crushed 45-10 at home by Oklahoma State. Then they had to go back on the road and were fortunate to escape with a 23-20 (OT) win at Louisiana Tech. And last week they went on the road again and got crushed 52-20 at North Texas. I think we see a similar result here to the Oklahoma State and North Texas games. I would argue Army would beat both of those teams, and they both outscored Tulsa 97-30 in their two wins. It's a Tulsa defense that ranks 105th in the country allowing 34.6 points per game. You think they want to try to tackle Daily and these physical Army backs with how drained they are already? The answer is no. This one will get away from them in a hurry. Bet Army Saturday. |
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10-05-24 | Navy -9.5 v. Air Force | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 110 h 13 m | Show |
25* Service Academy GAME OF THE YEAR on Navy -9.5 The Navy Midshipmen are an absolute wagon offensively this season. This is probably the best offense they've ever had, and a lot of it has to do with former Mercer offensive coordinator Drew Cronic, who is a name to watch in the coming years. Navy is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season behind an offense that ranks 11th in scoring at 46.0 points per game, 24th in total offense at 466 yards per game and 5th at 7.8 yards per play. They have more balance this year rushing for 287 yards per game and throwing for 179 yards per game. They put up 56 points and 659 total yards on a respectable Memphis defense two weeks ago. Air Force is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. The Falcons have one of the worst offenses in program history. They rank 131st in scoring at 12.5 points per game, 130th in total offense at 243 yards per game and 132nd at 3.8 yards per play. This despite facing a pretty soft schedule beating Merrimack 21-6 as a 30-point favorite, losing 17-7 at home to San Jose State as a 3-point favorite, losing 31-3 at Baylor as a 17-point dog and losing 31-19 at Wyoming as a 4-point favorite. That effort at Wyoming was very alarming for a number of reasons. The Falcons were coming off their bye week so they had two weeks to prepare. And this Wyoming team is hot garbage. The Cowboys were 0-4 previously including a 48-7 loss to Arizona State, a 17-13 home loss to FCS Idaho, a 44-17 loss at North Texas and a 34-14 home loss to BYU. Navy will show no mercy here and will keep pouring on the points considering they will be playing with quadruple revenge with four straight losses to Air Force in this series. It's time for the Midshipmen to the return the favor in blowout fashion. The Falcons simply cannot keep up with the Midsphipmen offensively in this one. Bet Navy Saturday. |