|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-02-20||Ravens v. Steelers -10||14-19||Loss||-110||4 h 5 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Steelers AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -10
The Baltimore Ravens will be one of the worst teams in the NFL for one game tonight with all they are missing due to Covid-19. And with the Steelers being the best team in the NFL to this point at 10-0 and chasing a perfect season, they should have no problem putting away the Ravens by double-digits today.
The Steelers already hate the Ravens, but that hatred will be even deeper today for the way the Ravens have messed with their schedule this season due to Covid-19. They lost a bye week because of it and want to make a statement here. And winning by margin hasn’t been a problem the last few weeks as they have won by 26 over Cincinnati and by 24 over Jacksonville. Baltimore is a team on Cincinnati and Jacksonville’s level right now with all they are missing.
The Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, LB Matthew Judos, WR Willie Snead, LS Morgan Cox, S Geno Stone, G Matt Skura, DE Jihad Ward, G Patrick Mekari, LB Pernell McPhee, RB Mark Ingram, RB JK Dobbins DT Justin Madubuike, DT Brandon Williams, TE Nick Boyle, T Ronnie Stanley and DE Calais Campbell tonight. Almost all of those players played against the Steelers in their 24-28 loss in the first meeting.
The Steelers got good news on the injury front with WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Vance McDonald both expected to play. They will be missing RB James Conner, but they haven’t been able to run the football all season, so that won’t be an issue. They have just been throwing on teams at will with Comeback Player of the Year candidate Ben Roethlisberger having one of his best seasons as a pro. And the Steelers have one of the top defenses in the NFL, giving up just 17.4 points per game this season.
Washed up Robert Griffin III will get the start at QB for the Ravens, and the Steelers will make life hell on him for four quarters. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS vs. awful passing defenses like Baltimore that allow 64% completions or worse over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss. The Ravens weren’t even playing good when healthy, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. Take the Steelers Wednesday.
|11-30-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +5.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-105||57 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +5.5
We’re buying at the lowest possible point here on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and Browns and now are catching 5.5 points at home to the Seattle Seahawks. And now the Eagles are finally out of first place in the NFC East so they need to be playing with a sense of urgency this week. I just love the spot for them.
And the Eagles have played their best football at home this season. They have just one loss by more than 2 points in their five home games this season. They have gotten a lot healthier on offense in recent weeks, and their defense is still playing at a very high level.
Indeed, the Eagles are allowing just 342.7 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. They have the far superior defense in this matchup. The Seahawks give up 28.7 points per game, 434.9 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. That’s why it is tough to trust them to get margin because the back door is always open against them with their pathetic defense.
Seattle is 7-3 this season but five of those wins came by a single score and the other two were against the Falcons in Week 1 and the 49ers a few weeks back when they were an injury-ravaged team. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games with losses to the Cardinals by 3, the Bills by 10 and the Rams by 7.
Philadelphia is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|11-29-20||49ers +7 v. Rams||Top||23-20||Win||100||29 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +7
This is a great spot to ‘buy low’ on the San Francisco 49ers, who have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. But those losses came against three of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks, Packers and Saints. And they were more competitive than the scores showed in all three. They actually outgained the Saints by 44 yards and the Seahawks by 1 yard, and they were only outgained by 68 yards by the Packers.
Now the 49ers come off their bye week, and they needed a bye more than anyone with all of their injuries. And they will be getting some key pieces back this week in WR Samuel, CB Sherman, RB Mostert and DT Kinlaw. And they already beat the Rams 24-16 as 2-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season. Now they are 7-point road dogs in the rematch, which is simply too high.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Rams after back-to-back wins and covers over the Seahawks and Bucs. Now the Rams will be on a short week here after winning in Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. They are at a huge rest disadvantage here facing a 49ers team off their bye. And they are feeling fat and happy after beating both of those teams. This has letdown spot written all over it.
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-29-20||Chargers v. Bills OVER 52.5||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||25 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Chargers/Bills OVER 52.5
This game has shootout written all over it between the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills Sunday. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL, especially when it comes to throwing the football. They are the 2nd and 3rd passing offenses in the league. And the conditions will be prime for scoring in Buffalo for this time of year with 46 degrees and 10 MPH winds at kickoff forecasted.
This Buffalo offense is hitting on all cylinders right now. They are scoring 27.2 points per game on the season and are coming off 44 and 30-point efforts against the Seahawks and Cardinals, respectively. Now their offense should torch a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed at least 28 points in seven consecutive games.
That includes 29 points to the Jaguars, 31 to the Broncos, 29 to the Dolphins and 28 to the Jets. Those are the 21st, 27th, 29th and 32nd offenses in the NFL this season, so they are giving up big points against even poor offenses. So you can imagine what the Bills are going to do to them, especially with the Chargers being without four key defenders in DE Ingram, CB Hayward, CB Harris and LB Nwosu. They allow 27.3 points per game on the season.
But the Chargers have the offense to make up for their poor defense. Justin Herbert is the Rookie of the Year right now with what he is doing in the passing game. He is guiding the Chargers to 26.0 points per game this season. He is completing 68% of his passes for 2,699 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio this year. And there’s a good chance he gets back a huge weapon this week in RB Austin Ekeler.
The OVER is 7-0 in Chargers last seven games overall with combined scores of 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50 and 62 points. That’s an average of 60.5 combined points per game. This 52.5-point total isn’t nearly high enough today for these two games as we should see 60-plus combined points here. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|11-29-20||Cardinals -125 v. Patriots||17-20||Loss||-125||25 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona Cardinals ML -125
I like this spot for the Arizona Cardinals. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games even though they were competitive in all three, so this is a ‘buy low’ opportunity. All three games came against the Dolphins, Bills and Seahawks who are all playoff teams currently. Now they get extra rest after losing a tough one to the Seahawks last Thursday in what was a bad spot for them.
Now they face a New England Patriots team that just can’t keep any momentum going. The Patriots’ shot to make the playoffs went by the wayside last week as they were upset by the Houston Texans. Now I can’t see them playing with much passion here against the Cardinals this week sitting at 4-6 on the season and out of the playoff race.
Not to mention, the Patriots haven’t been playing good football for months. They are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only good performance coming in an upset win over Baltimore in a monsoon. And clearly the Ravens are struggling over the last month too, so that win doesn’t look as good now. Their other six games were all poor performances.
The Patriots don’t have much speed on defense, so they struggle against speedy teams like the Cardinals. That was evident against the speed of the Texans last week. And it will be again this week against Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and company. Plus the weather is going to be perfect in New England, which favors the Cardinals. It’s supposed to be 50 degrees with only 6 MPH winds at kickoff.
The Patriots give up 6.4 yards per play defensively while the Cardinals give up just 5.7 yards per play. The Cardinals average 6.3 yards per play on offense while the Patriots only average 5.8 yards per play. Arizona is outgaining its opponents by 0.6 yards per play this season, while New England is getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play.
The Cardinals are simply better everywhere and should be at least favored by a field goal minimum here. Arizona is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|11-26-20||Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys||Top||41-16||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Washington Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +3
The Washington Football Team has quietly outgained five straight opponents by a combined a combined 549 yards, or by an average of 109.8 yards per game. They are playing their best football of the season with Alex Smith at quarterback. He has thrown for 881 yards in his last three games overall.
But what you really have to like about Washington is their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season. They give up just 22.7 points and 315.8 yards per game on the year. This defense limited the Cowboys to just 142 total yards in their first meeting, outgaining them by 255 yards in their 25-3 victory. I expect more of the same here. And there’s value with Washington considering the line was PK in the first meeting and now it’s +3.
The Cowboys are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering their last two games against the Steelers as 14-point dogs and the Vikings as 7-point dogs. But they were fortunate to beat the Vikings last week because they were outgained by 54 yards and their pathetic defense still gave up 430 yards to the Vikings in the win.
And that’s where the advantage for Washington lies here is on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys give up 31.8 points and 386.4 yards per game this season. They can’t stop the run as they give up 154 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. And Washington is going to be able to run the ball with Antonio Gibson, who had 430 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 per carry this season.
Washington is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season. Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings. Bet Washington Thursday.
|11-26-20||Texans -2.5 v. Lions||41-25||Win||100||48 h 37 m||Show|
15* Texans/Lions Early Afternoon APPETIZER on Houston -2.5
The Houston Texans got off to a 1-6 start this season because they played the toughest schedule in the NFL up to that point. Their six losses were against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Titans and Packers. But they’ve started to play up to their potential now with the schedule easing up.
Indeed, the Texans are 2-1 SU in their last three games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Browns 7-10 in terrible conditions as 4-point dogs. They beat the Jaguars on the road and last week topped the Patriots 27-20 at home. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season still and I trust him to get the job done here. Watson is completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,883 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 269 yards and two scores.
The Detroit Lions have some terrible losses this season and are just 4-6 on the year. Their six losses have come by an average of 14.2 points per game. And three of their four wins have come by 3 points or less. So they are close to being a 1-9 football team. They sure looked the part last week when they were upset 20-0 on the road by the Carolina Panthers.
That was a Panthers team playing without Teddy Bridgewater. And the Lions just got worked. They managed just 185 yards of total offense in the loss against a Panthers defense that had given up 46 points to the Bucs the week prior. A big reason for the Lions’ struggles was all their injuries on offense, and it’s not going to get much better this week.
The Lions were without three of their best playmakers in Kenny Golloday, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift last week, and all three are questionable to return. Matthew Stafford didn’t take a single snap in practice last week because of a thumb injury, and he played with that injured thumb against the Panthers. And it’s not going to get much better for the Lions offensively on a short week this week.
Watson should be able to light up a Detroit defense that gives up 28.7 points and 397.4 yards per game this season. The Lions are 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game over the last two seasons. Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games overall. The Lions are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Take the Texans Thursday.
|11-23-20||Rams v. Bucs -3||Top||27-24||Loss||-130||155 h 39 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3
The Tampa Bay Bucs are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL. Their 38-3 loss to the Saints a couple weeks ago was an aberration. They’ve won four of their last five games overall with three of those wins coming by 23 points or more. They will handle the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Tom Brady came back motivated last week off that loss to the Saints and showed what he could do with all the weapons he has. They beat the Panthers 46-23 and it wasn’t even that close. They racked up 544 total yards and held the Panthers to 187, outgaining them by 357 yards. It was the most lopsided box score of the entire season in the NFL. And the Bucs didn’t have to punt once. Now Brady wants to redeem himself on the National TV stage here against the Rams. He leads a Bucs offense that is putting up 29.6 points per game this season.
The Bucs also have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They give up just 22.6 points and 300.3 yards per game. Now they’ll be facing an overrated Rams offense that cannot be trusted. The Rams only scored 23 points against the Seahawks last week in what was a perfect spot for them coming off their bye week. The Seahawks have been getting burnt defensively all season, and their defense actually looked pretty good in that game.
Goff isn’t very good when he is pressured, and the Bucs can get pressure. Not to mention Goff will likely be without LT Andrew Whitworth, who had to leave the game last week with a knee injury. And this is now a bad spot for the Rams having to make their 5th cross country trip of the season. No team in the NFL has flown more miles than the Rams this year. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with losses to the Bills, 49ers and Dolphins. Their only two road wins came against poor NFC East teams in Philadelphia and Washington.
The Rams are 23-47 ATS in their last 70 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Los Angels is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 35 or more points last game. Bet the Bucs Monday.
|11-22-20||Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings||31-28||Win||100||119 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Cowboys +7.5
This is a great ‘buy low’ spot on the Dallas Cowboys, who are just 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS this season. They were either favored or a PK in six of their first seven games this season. But now they’ve been an underdog in their last two and a double-digit dog at that. And they should have covered both.
The Cowboys lost 9-23 to Philadelphia as 10-point dogs two games back and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards. But they had a fumble returned for a TD when they were only down 6 points late and driving for the winning score. And last time out they only lost 19-24 to the Steelers as 14-point dogs. They led most the way and deserved to beat the unbeaten Steelers.
Now the Cowboys are in a great spot this week coming off their bye week. They are ready to make a second half playoff run because when they look up at the NFC East standings they see that they are clearly right in the thick of the race despite their 2-7 record. That should have them rejuvenated coming off their bye. And they should be a lot healthier here too, plus they are expected to get Andy Dalton back at quarterback.
While it’s a great spot for the Cowboys, it’s a terrible one for the Vikings. They will be working on a short week here after a physical game against the Bears on Monday Night Football. And it’s a good ’sell high’ spot on the Vikings coming off three straight wins and covers. Now the Vikings are 7.5-point favorites here. They haven’t been more than a 4-point favorite in any other game this season, which shows they are now overvalued.
Dallas is 7-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 260 or more passing yards per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their previous game over the last three years. They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-22-20||Dolphins -3 v. Broncos||Top||13-20||Loss||-100||119 h 8 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
We keep backing the Miami Dolphins, and they keep on covering because oddsmakers and the betting public just don’t want to give them the respect they deserve. And I feel they are still being disrespected as only 3-point road favorites over the Broncos this week. The Dolphins are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and fighting for an AFC East title.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season. The offense has put up 28, 34 and 29 points in the three games started by Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
The Broncos are a mess right now. They have lost three of their last four and weren’t even competitive in any of the three losses. They were fortunate to come back from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers in their only win. And keep in mind the Chargers were 3-point favorites over the Broncos in that game. The Dolphins are a lot better than the Chargers, and they proved that last week with their 29-21 win that wasn’t even as close as the final score. So they should be more than 3-point favorites here.
Justin Herbert had thrown for at least 250 yards in every game as a starter until he ran into this Dolphins defense. Herbert only went 20-of-32 for 187 yards against the Dolphins, and no Charger receiver managed even 40 receiving yards. This Miami defense is going to feast on Drew Lock or whoever starts for the Broncos this week.
Denver has committed at least one turnover in 16 consecutive games now. Lock threw four interceptions in their 12-37 road loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week. And this Broncos defense has been pitiful, giving up at least 100 rushing yards in five of its last six, including 200-plus in two of the last three. The Dolphins should be able to do whatever they want offensively against this soft, banged up Broncos defense that allows 28.2 points per game this season.
Plays against any team (Denver) - with a poor turnover defensive forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Miami is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-22-20||Eagles +3.5 v. Browns||Top||17-22||Loss||-110||123 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have all returned recently to bolster the Eagles’ offense. They didn’t all get in a full week of practice last week, but they should this week. And it should make all the difference as they bounce back from a bad loss to the Giants.
The Eagles were out of sync against the Giants, going just 1-for-12 on 3rd and 4th downs combined. They should be more in sync this week. And it was a great sign for them to rush for 156 yards on 23 attempts, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Which makes it even more puzzling hat they struggled on 3rd and 4th. But I expect them to get it worked out this week.
The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and are for some reason getting a lot of respect here as 3.5-point favorites. Remember, there’s really no home-field advantage in the NFL this year. So it’s basically suggesting the Browns are 3.5 points better on a neutral. I strongly believe the Eagles are the better team now that they are almost fully healthy.
This Cleveland offense has really struggled in scoring 10 or fewer points in three of its last four games overall. The loss of Odell Beckham Jr. is a big one because now teams can stack the box and try to stop their running game, which is their best asset. Baker Mayfield has been awful all season and won’t be able to make many plays against this Philadelphia defense that has been very good against the pass in allowing just 175.3 passing yards per game in their last four.
Plays on road games where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (Philadelphia) - off a road loss, with a losing record on the season are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season with an upset win at San Francisco, a 2-point loss to Baltimore and a 9-point loss at Pittsburgh. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|11-22-20||Falcons +5 v. Saints||9-24||Loss||-107||123 h 25 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Saints NFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +5
This is a great spot for the Atlanta Falcons. They are coming off their bye week and looking to make a playoff run in the second half of the season. They are one of the healthiest teams in the entire NFL and are starting to play up to their potential.
In fact, the Falcons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They are a Todd Gurley kneel down away from being 4-0 in the Raheem Morris era. Players have clearly responded well to him. They crushed the Vikings 40-23 on the road in his first game as head coach. Then that heartbreaking 22-23 home loss to the Lions, followed by a 25-17 win at Carolina and a 34-27 home win over Denver. And that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led 34-13 with under four minutes remaining.
This is a great time to ’sell high’ on the Saints off six straight wins. The first four all came by 6 points or fewer. Their 38-3 win over the Bucs two weeks ago has them overvalued. And their 27-13 win over the 49ers last week wasn’t nearly the blowout that the score would indicate. The Saints managed just 237 total yards against the 49ers but were +2 in turnovers. They have forced a combined seven turnovers the past two games. But now they’ll be up against a Falcons team that doesn’t turn the ball over. Atlanta has committed only eight turnovers in nine games this season.
Now the Saints will have to go on without Drew Brees. Say what you want about him getting older, but he is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. And now the Saints have to turn to Jameis Winston, who threw 30 interceptions last year with the Bucs and has always been a turnover machine. They may give Taysom Hill some snaps too, but either way this is a huge downgrade at quarterback, and it’s not being factored into the line enough. There’s tremendous value here on the Falcons catching 5 points off their bye and not having to face Brees.
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. The Saints are only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Falcons Sunday.
|11-22-20||Steelers v. Jaguars +10||27-3||Loss||-110||123 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +10
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the final unbeaten team in the NFL at 9-0 this season. With that perfect record comes expectations from the betting public and thus oddsmakers that are difficult to live up too. We saw that a few weeks ago when they barely survived in a 24-19 win over the lowly Cowboys. And after a blowout win over the Bengals last week, the Steelers are overvalued here against the Jaguars laying double-digits on the road.
This is the ultimate flat spot for the Steelers. They have the Ravens on deck Thursday night and are coming off that divisional win over the Bengals. This is a sandwich spot now and the Steelers won’t be 100% focused for it. They will clearly be looking ahead to that game against the Ravens.
The Jaguars have impressed me since returning from their bye week. Doug Marrone still has this team showing up every week and trying to beat everyone. And they’ll certainly be pumped to try to become the first team to take down the Steelers. They nearly upset the Packers last week in a 20-24 road loss as 14-point dogs. And they also nearly upset the Texans the week prior in a 25-27 loss as 6.5-point dogs.
The defense is playing better in holding those two elite offenses below 30 points. And their offense has gotten a boost from QB Jake Luton, who is expected to start for a third consecutive game here. Luton is completing 60.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions while also rushing for a score. He should only get better with each game, and keep in mind he had great stats against the Texans and poor ones against the Packers because he was playing in a wind storm. It will be perfect weather in Jacksonville Sunday.
Plays against road favorites (Pittsburgh) - a good team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game, after a win by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Steelers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh is 12-27-2 ATS in its last 41 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Take the Jaguars Sunday.
|11-19-20||Cardinals v. Seahawks -3||Top||21-28||Win||100||59 h 45 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks -3
The Seattle Seahawks want revenge from blowing a 27-14 lead at Arizona and losing 34-37 (OT) a few weeks ago. And I think they are just pissed off in general after losing three of their last four. So we are going to get an inspired Seattle Seahawks team Thursday night, and that’s the type of team I want to be backing.
It’s easy to explain the losses here of late. It’s simple, the schedule has gotten harder, and all the losses have been on the road to playoff contenders in Arizona, Buffalo and the LA Rams. Now they return back home where they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season. And playing at home on a short week here will be a big advantage for them.
Russell Wilson rarely loses back-to-back games, let alone two straight like he has. Wilson is 32-9 SU in his career off a loss. You know he’s going to be locked in here, especially after the Seahawks committed a combined 10 turnovers in the three road losses, mostly out of his hand. Against, I like a motivated Wilson with a chip on his shoulder.
The Arizona Cardinals are pathetic defensively now that they’ve lost their top pass rusher in Chandler Jones to a biceps injury. The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games coming in. They gave up 572 yards to the Seahawks in that first meeting, and things should come easy for the Seahawks here.
I think this is also a great ‘buy low’ spot on Seattle after losing three of their last four. The lookahead line for this game last week was Seahawks -5.5, and after Seattle lost to the Rams while Arizona had a miracle win on a Hail Mary over Buffalo, this line has now come back at -3. Keep in mind the Seahawks were 3.5-point road favorites at Arizona in their first meeting, and now they are only 3-point home favorites in the rematch. That’s an easy way to tell there is some serious line value with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense is getting healthier and as a result, better. They held the Rams to 23 points last week. That was a Rams team coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for this Seattle defense. So that was also a tough spot for the Seahawks. And it was a good spot for Arizona last week catching Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over the Seahawks and Patriots. And the Bills had to travel all the way out West and still played good enough to win that game.
Seattle is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games off two or more consecutive losses. Pete Carroll is 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Seattle. Carrolls is 12-2 ATS off two consecutive losses as the coach of the Seahawks. Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. Bet the Seahawks Thursday.
|11-16-20||Vikings v. Bears +3||Top||19-13||Loss||-105||68 h 52 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Chicago Bears, who are coming off three straight losses to three of the better teams in the NFL in the Rams, Saints and Titans. Two of those were on the road, and one was an overtime home loss to the Saints.
At the same time, it’s a great time to ‘sell high’ on the Vikings, who are coming off two straight wins and covers over the Packers and the Lions. They had a bye week coming into that game with the Packers and caught them by surprise, revenging an earlier loss. And they caught the Lions without Kenny Golloday, and with Matthew Stafford sitting out practice all week due to Covid-19 protocol. Stafford eventually was knocked out of the game with a concussion as well.
So we’re going to get a Bears team highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses following their 5-1 start this season. And we’re going to get a fat and happy Vikings team that has rebounded from their 1-5 start with two straight wins. The Bears are still the better team in my opinion with the much better defense and should be favored here.
Minnesota gives up 29.3 points and 412.9 yards per game this season. Chicago only allows 21.1 points and 335.1 yards per game this year. The Vikings do have the better offense, but this is one of the stiffest tests they will have faced all season. They have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses of any team in the NFL thus far. The only legit defense they faced they lost 11-28 on the road to the Colts.
I foresee us getting the bad Kirk Cousins Monday night. The Bears have owned Cousins and the Vikings, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. They have held the Vikings to an average of just 16.3 points per game in those six meetings, and the Vikings have failed to top 23 points once in this stretch.
The Vikings are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Monday Night games, including 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF road games. The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as home underdogs. Chicago is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 games off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. The Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5 or more yards per carry. Bet the Bears Monday.
|11-15-20||Bengals +8 v. Steelers||Top||10-36||Loss||-110||144 h 12 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +8
This is a great spot to back the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to get ready for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They should put together one of their best performances of the season in this spot.
The Bengals are undervalued because of their 2-5-1 record this season. But they are 6-2 ATS with only one loss by more than 5 points all season. They are much better than their record would indicate. Joe Burrow is having a Rookie of the Year type season and always keeps his team in games. The guy is 19-6 ATS in his last 25 games as a starter dating back to his time at LSU.
The Steelers are overvalued due to being the last remaining unbeaten team at 8-0 this season. I faded them last week with success on the Cowboys +14 in a game that the Cowboys probably should have won outright in a 19-24 defeat. And I’m fading the Steelers again this week laying more than a touchdown to the rested and ready Bengals.
The Steelers have had Covid-19 issues this week that have forced some players to miss practice all week, including Big Ben. And Big Ben injured his knee against the Cowboys and won’t be 100% even if he does play. It would just be an added bonus if he sits out.
The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|11-15-20||Chargers v. Dolphins -2.5||Top||21-29||Win||100||98 h 57 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins -2.5
I’ve been riding the Miami Dolphins all season and it has paid off. The Dolphins are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and head coach Brian Flores is clearly in the discussion for Coach of the Year. They are coming off two straight upsets over the Rams and Cardinals and are now 3-1 against the NFC West this season, which has been tabbed as the best division in the NFL.
The Dolphins are underrated because they play great defense. They are only giving up 20.1 points per game this season. And their offense showed what it could do last week with Too Tagovailoa leading them to 34 points against the Cardinals. He completed 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while also rushing for 35 yards on seven attempts. I don’t believe he’s a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the playbook actually gets bigger with Tua under center.
I went into the week thinking the Dolphins could be getting too much respect off those two upset wins this week. But that’s simply not the case as they are only 2.5-point home favorites here against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are just 2-6 this season and they just find ways to lose games.
They have blown leads of 16 points or more in four games this season, losing three of them. And last week they nearly completed a comeback of their own against the Raiders, only to have their touchdown on the final play of the game overturned with a booth review. I don’t know how much more heartbreak this team can take. And this might finally be the week where they just fail to show up.
What I also like about the Dolphins is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. The Chargers have some key losses along the offensive line, and now Joey Bosa is doubtful with a concussion. Their defense is so much better when they have Bosa and Ingram to rush the passer, but without Bosa that is a huge deal and Tua should be able to extend plays with his feet.
I just think this is a great value on a Dolphins team playing with a ton of confidence right now while also fighting for an AFC East Title with the Buffalo Bills. The Chargers have little to play for the rest of the way, and while I don’t expect them to pack it in, I think this is a bad spot for them off two straight heartbreaking defeats in the final seconds. And it’s a West Coast team having to travel East, which is always a tough situation.
The Chargers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. They are losing by 6.9 points per game in this spot. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-15-20||Eagles -3.5 v. Giants||17-27||Loss||-113||37 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot here Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and are now as healthy as they have been basically all season. They will have six key players back that they didn’t have in their first meeting with the Giants a few weeks ago.
Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Raegor, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson all didn’t suit up against the Giants in their first meeting on October 22nd. And that game wasn’t nearly as close as the 21-22 final score would indicate. The Eagles racked up 422 total yards in that game and outgained the Giants by 117 yards. They are clearly the superior team with all these players back and off their bye.
Speaking of misleading finals, the Giants beat the Redskins 23-20 last week. But they won the turnover battle 5-0 and were still only able to win by a field goal. And Washington starting QB Kyle Allen was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, leaving the offense in the hands of the terrible Alex Smith. And even Smith went on to complete 24-of-32 passes for 325 yards against this soft New York defense.
The Eagles have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 340.1 yards per game on the season. They have had just a mediocre offense up to this point, but with all these reinforcements coming back from injury along the offensive line and at the skill positions, the Eagles should easily have a Top 10 offense moving forward.
The Eagles simply own the Giants, going 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. New York is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 trips to New York. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|11-12-20||Colts v. Titans +103||Top||34-17||Loss||-100||11 h 15 m||Show|
20* Colts/Titans AFC South No-Brainer on Tennessee ML +103
The Tennessee Titans are 6-2 this season with their only losses coming at home to the Steelers and on the road to the Bengals. They got back in the win column with a 24-17 victory over the Bears last week in what was a 24-3 game before the Bears scored some points in garbage time to make the score closer than it was.
That was a box score against the Bears that lied last week, and I think it’s creating some line value here on the Titans getting them as home underdogs. The Bears outgained the Titans by nearly 150 yards, but they got almost all those yards in garbage time after the game was already decided. And the Bears ran 20 more plays than the Titans did. The Titans just basically tried to milk the clock after taking a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter.
The Colts lost 24-10 to the Ravens last week. But the early money is on the Colts this week because of another box score that favored the Colts. They outgained the Ravens by 73 yards. But they went just 2-of-12 on 3rd down in another terrible performance by Philip Rivers when he has stepped up on competition.
Speaking of competition, the Colts have played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL according to Football Outsiders. They are 5-3 this season with their five wins coming against the Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. And keep in mind they lost to the Jaguars and Browns. Even after playing a good team in the Ravens, they still have the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL, which shows just how easy it has been.
Rivers just doesn’t have the same caliber of weapons in Indianapolis as he did with the Chargers. TY Hilton can’t stay healthy and is questionable again tonight. And now Rivers has lost his favorite tight end in Jack Doyle. There’s no question the Titans have a huge advantage on offense with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and company. They are scoring 29.0 points per game this season.
The Titans are 4-1 at home this season and winning by 7.8 points per game. Again, their only home loss was to the unbeaten Steelers. The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC opponents. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs. Bet the Titans on the Money Line Thursday.
|11-09-20||Patriots -7 v. Jets||Top||30-27||Loss||-120||82 h 11 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England -7
The New England Patriots aren’t going to give up on their season under Bill Belichick. They are just 2-5 on the season but everything is still in front of them, and I like the quotes I’m hearing from the players heading into this game with the New York Jets Monday night. They nearly upset the Bills on the road last week, which shows they have not quit.
If there was ever a ‘get right’ game for the Patriots, this would be it. They take on the worst team in the NFL in the New York Jets, who are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS with all eight losses coming by 8 points or more and by an average of 18.0 points per game. And we are getting the Patriots here at less than that 8-point margin as only 7-point favorites.
The numbers show the Patriots to be an average team and better than their 2-5 record. They are only getting outgained by 5.6 yards per game on the season. Compare that to the Jets, who are getting outgained by 140 yards per game, and the Patriots should roll to an easy win and cover. And because this is a National TV game on Monday Night Football, the Patriots will show up and handle their business.
Plays against home underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - a poor team that is outgained by 50 or more yards per game, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jets are 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game over the last two seasons. Bet the Patriots Monday.
|11-08-20||Saints v. Bucs -4.5||38-3||Loss||-109||58 h 19 m||Show|
15* Saints/Bucs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay -4.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers want revenge from a 23-34 road loss to the New Orleans Saints in the season opener. Of course the Bucs were a completely new team and they weren’t going to be clicking in Week 1. That proved to be the case as Tom Brady threw a pick-six which was the difference. It’s worth noting the Bucs still outgained the Saints by 39 yards in that loss as it was closer than the score would suggest.
It’s safe to say the Bucs have gotten it together since. They have gone 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall while outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game. Their offense has been rolling with 25-plus points in all six wins. Brady has unlimited weapons, and their defense is one of the best in the NFL, giving up just 20.6 points per game and 299.5 yards per game this season.
I’m willing to throw out Tampa Bay’s narrow win over the New York Giants last week. That was clearly a sandwich spot off two huge blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders, and knowing they had this game against the Saints on deck this week. They didn’t bring their best effort against the Giants and still managed to win.
The Saints are very fortunate to be 5-2 this season. And it’s worth noting their two losses have come to the Packers and Raiders, two teams the Bucs beat by a combined 53 points. They have been fortunate during their current four-game winning streak winning four one-score games by 6 points or fewer over the Lions, Chargers, Panthers and Bears. Those are four mediocre teams at best. This is a big step up in class for the Saints.
Drew Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength, and now he has popped up on the injury report with a throwing shoulder ailment. We still don’t know if Michael Thomas will make his return. And their defense has some key injuries and hasn’t played well all season. The Saints give up 28.1 points per game on the year. This is where it really catches up to them as Tom Brady lights up that soft defense, and the Bucs shut down Brees and company in a huge revenge game that will likely decide the division.
New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two straight wins by 3 points or less. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing Tampa Bay tonight. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|11-08-20||Dolphins +5 v. Cardinals||34-31||Win||100||96 h 18 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Miami +5
The Miami Dolphins have been one of my favorite teams to back this season because the betting public just doesn’t want to buy into them. I have fully bought in and it has paid dividends. And I think they’ve being undervalued again this week as 5-point road dogs to the Arizona Cardinals.
I’m buying into the Dolphins because they have an underrated defense and a head coach in Brian Flores who is getting everything out of his players. They love playing for this guy. The defense is giving up just 18.6 points per game on the season and just 17.0 points per game on the road.
Offensively, the Dolphins are scoring 26.9 points per game, so they are outscoring opponents by 8.3 points per game on the season. I don’t think Tua is an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it’s also not as much of a downgrade as many believe it is. I think it’s pretty much a wash at this point and time will tell.
Many bettors are looking at that misleading box score from last week that saw the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17 as 3-point home dogs. The Dolphins basically got three touchdowns off turnovers. But their defense does force turnovers as they have forced at least one in every game this season and a total of 13 on the year. Tua didn’t have to do much as they took a conservative approach offensively, so they have plenty of hidden secrets with Tua’s playbook that they can unleash on Arizona this week.
Some bye weeks are better than others. I strongly believe this was a bad time for the Cardinals to have their bye week. They had a lot of momentum going into their bye with three straight victories, blowing out both the Jets and Cowboys and upsetting the Seahawks in overtime. So they went into their bye feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them come out rusty and flat this week, especially off that huge win over Seattle.
No team has head better health than Miami this season as they only have four players on the injury report currently. That’s impressive when you consider how many teams have been decimated by injuries in this crazy pandemic season. To compare, the Cardinals have 13 players on their injury report even coming off their bye week, and a lot of them are key players.
Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Plays against any team (Arizona) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 79-35 (69.3%) ATS since 1983. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-08-20||Steelers v. Cowboys +14||24-19||Win||100||54 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Dallas Cowboys +14
The Dallas Cowboys are one of just three teams since 1989 to start a season 0-8 ATS. No team has started 0-9 ATS during this span. So the Cowboys would make history if they don’t cover this spread Sunday. It’s safe to say this is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Cowboys this week.
The Cowboys will likely be starting Cooper Rush at quarterback this week, which would be an upgrade over Ben Dinucci, who has been terrible. And things have gotten better for them on the injury front both on defense and on the offensive line. They still have a chance to win the division, and they will fight until they are eliminated.
Not only is it a great ‘buy low’ spot on Dallas in their biggest underdog role this season, it’s also a ’sell high’ spot on the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS and making the public a lot of money this season. Now the Steelers find themselves in their biggest favorite role of the season here against the Cowboys.
It’s also a huge letdown spot for the Steelers. They are coming off two straight huge wins. They handed the Titans their first loss of the season two weeks ago, and last week they somehow beat their biggest rivals in the Ravens despite getting outgained by 236 yards. Now they are feeling fat and happy and this is the perfect spot for them to lay an egg against the Cowboys, which will keep this game closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Pittsburgh was in a dog fight with the Eagles a few weeks back. And Dallas gave Philadelphia a run for its money last week. The Cowboys forced four turnovers and held the Eagles to just 222 total yards and had a chance to win it late before Dinucci fumbled and it was returned for a TD. Their defense is improving, and their offense is still one of the most talented in the entire NFL. There is enough talent on this roster to compete with the Steelers even with a fourth different starting QB this week.
Pittsburgh is 12-29 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. The Steelers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Dallas is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after having lost three of its last four coming in. Mike Tomlin is 5-15 ATS vs. teams that are outscored by 10 or more points per game as the coach of the Steelers. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. Take the Cowboys Sunday.
|11-08-20||Panthers +11 v. Chiefs||Top||31-33||Win||100||93 h 53 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11
Let’s get this remarkable stat out of the way early. Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog as a starting quarterback in the NFL. And it’s a great spot for the Panthers this week. They have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday against the Falcons, so they should be the fresher, more prepared team.
Now the Panthers should also get back their best playmaker in Christian McCaffrey from an ankle injury. He means everything to this team. And the way to beat the Chiefs is to run on them. Kansas City gives up 143 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. That’s remarkable when you consider the Chiefs play with a lead most the time and teams usually have to throw the ball to try and come back. Look for the Panthers to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes and to run the football and go on long scoring drives as a result.
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers coming off three straight losses. It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Chiefs coming off three straight wins and covers. They weren’t just any wins either, they were blowout wins against two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos by 27 and the Jets by 26 in their last two games. And that win over the Broncos was very misleading. This is a big step up in class now for the Chiefs, and I have a feeling they might be sleep-walking this week knowing that they have a big lead in the division and a bye next week to look ahead to.
A big reason Bridgewater is such a good underdog is because he doesn’t turn the ball over. The Panthers have had zero turnovers in four of their eight games this season and just one turnover in two of them. The Chiefs have forced one or more turnovers in every game this year. Bridgewater will take care of the ball in this game, and those long, time-consuming drives he takes the Panthers on will pay dividends and keep this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining six or more yards per play in four consecutive games as the coach of the Chiefs having never covered in this situation. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-08-20||Giants v. Washington Football Team -2.5||Top||23-20||Loss||-108||51 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington -2.5
I love the spot for the Washington Redskins Sunday. They are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for the Giants. They will be fresh and ready to go, and they will want revenge from a 19-20 road loss to the Giants just a few weeks back after they came up short on a 2-point conversion late.
It’s a bad spot for the Giants. They are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Eagles (21-22) and Bucs (23-25) in their last two games. They may suffer a hangover here, and they will also be on a short week after playing the Bucs on Monday Night Football. They won’t be nearly as excited to fade Washington as they were to face Tom Brady and the Bucs on National TV. That’s especially the case since they’ve already beaten Washington this season.
I would argue Washington deserved to win that first meeting. They racked up 337 total yards in that game and held the Giants to just 240 total yards, outgaining them by 97 yards. And Washington went on to crush Dallas 25-3 in their final game before the bye while holding the Cowboys to just 142 total yards. They have an underrated defense that can keep them in games, and they clearly have the better defense in this matchup.
The Redskins have been at their best offensively when they’ve had Kyle Allen at quarterback. He is a lot better than he gets credit for. Allen is completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdowns and only one interception in his three starts this season. He is also mobile with 26 rushing yards and a score.
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win. Plays against road underdogs or PK (NY Giants) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a bad team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a losing record are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Bet Washington Sunday.
|11-05-20||Packers -2.5 v. 49ers||Top||34-17||Win||100||83 h 1 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -2.5
Note: I locked in the Packers -2.5 with a personal bet myself at William Hill early Monday morning as well. With the new info that has come out since with Jimmy G and Kittle both out, plus the Covid issues, I'd still take the Packers as a 20* up to -6.5. Thanks.
I’ve been fading the 49ers for weeks and will continue to do so Thursday as they host the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers simply have too many injuries to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Packers, just as they couldn’t beat a team that caliber of the Seahawks last week. And I believe the Packers are as good or better than the Seahawks this season.
The 49ers are playing without Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, K’Waun Williams, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Now Jimmy G and George Kittle have been added to the injury list and are both questionable for Thursday. Deebo Samuel missed last game and likely won’t return on a short week with a hamstring injury. Not to mention, Tevin Coleman, Kwon Alexander, Dante Pettis and Jacquiski Tartt all have the questionable label. They are missing 20-plus contributors to injury.
The Packers have some injury issues of their own as RB Aaron Jones, T David Bakhtiari and CB Kevin King all missed last game with injuries. I’m hopeful a few of them return, but either way the Packers’ injury situation is a lot prettier than that of the 49ers. And that was a bad spot for the Packers last week and a great one for the Vikings, which is why we were on the Vikings +7 in that one.
The Vikings were coming off their bye week and got a healthy Dalvin Cook back from injury. Cook torched the Packers for four touchdowns, but he was really Minnesota’s only offense as they finished with 324 total yards, a reasonable showing for the Packers. Green Bay had 400 total yards in that game.
The Packers responded well from their first loss of the season against the Bucs with a 35-20 win at Houston. And they will respond well from this loss to Minnesota. Adding to the Packers’ motivation here is the fact that they lost both meetings with the 49ers last season, including in the playoffs. They will want revenge here, similar to the Seahawks wanting revenge on the 49ers last week when we cashed them in as our 25* NFC West Game of the Year. The Packers will have their revenge in a big way Thursday night.
Green Bay is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games off a loss by 6 points or less. Plays on underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after two straight games where they forced one or fewer turnovers are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|11-02-20||Bucs v. Giants UNDER 47||Top||25-23||Loss||-115||148 h 24 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on UNDER 47
The New York Giants have been an UNDER machine this season. They have a terrible offense and an underrated defense. The UNDER is 5-2 in their seven games this year and six of the seven have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The only exception was their game against the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Speaking of underrated defenses, the Tampa Bay Bucs give up just 20.3 points and 291.3 yards per game. Their offense gets all their credit, but it is their defense being the reason that they are so good. In fact, Football Outsiders has the Bucs ranked as the top defense in the entire NFL this season.
The Giants have given up 22 or fewer points in four of their seven games this season. I think they can limit what the Bucs do offensively similar to when the Bears held the Bucs to just 19 points a few weeks back. The Bucs have scored a ton of points the last two weeks since against the Packers and Raiders, but many of those points were created by their defense, and that’s unlikely to continue happening.
The Giants have the 30th-ranked offense according to Football Outsiders. They average just 17.4 points and 282.4 yards per game this season. Daniel Jones really misses his best weapon in Saquon Barkley. And now he’s left with one of the worst set of skill players in the NFL. I don’t expect the Giants to do much offensively to contribute to the total points scored in this game.
Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (Tampa Bay) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 41-14 (74.5%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|11-01-20||49ers v. Seahawks -3||Top||27-37||Win||100||122 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -3
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers this week. They are coming off two upset wins as underdogs over the Rams and Patriots. It’s clear the Patriots are broken and that win doesn’t mean as much as the 33-6 final score would indicate. Now the 49ers have to face a real team in the Seattle Seahawks.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Seahawks after they blew a 27-14 lead and lost to the Cardinals in overtime last week. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season with three interceptions. The Seahawks hadn’t turned the ball over more than once prior to that game. Russell is in a bounce-back spot and wants revenge on the 49ers after they took the NFC West title from them in Week 17 last year.
The Seahawks have been able to make up for a suspect defense with an offense that is one of the best in the NFL in putting up 33.8 points per game this season. And there’s a good chance the Seahawks get back their leader on defense in safety Jamal Adams this week.
The 49ers’ injury report just got even worse after last week. They lost RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to an ankle injury late, and he had three touchdowns against the Patriots. They don’t really have any good healthy running backs left after also losing Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert to season-ending injury. The 49ers now have at least 19 contributors that are out due to injury this season.
New starter Jerick McKinnon has been ineffective, which is why everyone else is starting ahead of him. And they have also been using Deebo Samuel a lot in the running game, but now he is out with a hamstring injury. Samuel was becoming their best playmaker the last few weeks, so it’s a big loss. Jimmy Ward, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander are all questionable to play this week and they are already missing a handful of starters on D.
The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 350 passing yards in their previous game over the last two seasons. Seattle is 8-1 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three years, coming back to win by 8.8 yards per game in this spot. The Seahawks are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Bet the Seahawks Sunday.
|11-01-20||Patriots v. Bills -3||Top||21-24||Push||0||119 h 33 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -3
I made my worst pick of the season last week on the Patriots over the 49ers as a 25*. I apologize to my clients for that one. I thought the Patriots were affected by only having one padded practice in the two weeks prior leading up to their losses to the Chiefs and Broncos. And they had a full week of practice last week to improve.
It didn’t matter. The Patriots are clearly broken after losing 6-33 at home to the 49ers for their third consecutive loss. That followed up a 12-18 home loss to the Denver Broncos as 7-point favorites. And before that they lost 10-26 on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs.
So, the Patriots have scored an average of 9.3 points per game in their last three games. Their offense is way broken. Cam Newton has two touchdown passes against seven interceptions on the season and the Panthers are glad they moved on from him. He is in jeopardy of losing his starting job. It doesn’t matter who they go with because the backups haven’t been any better. Their quarterbacks have combined for three touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the season.
The usually steady Patriots defense is missing too many players to be effective last year. A banged-up 49ers offense just put up 33 points and 467 total yards on them last week. That came a week after the Broncos scored on their first six possessions of the game, albeit all field goals but they still had no problem moving the football on the Patriots.
The Bills are the real deal this season. Their only two losses came against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Titans and Chiefs, who are a combined 11-2 this season. They have been frustrated for years by the Patriots, and now it’s finally their turn to take over this division. They will be highly motivated to do just that Sunday.
Buffalo’s 18-10 win at the New York Jets last week was very misleading. They somehow had to settle for eight field goal attempts in that game, and only made six of them. But they outgained the Jets 422 to 190 for the game, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. And their defense completely shut down the Jets after giving up 10 early points.
Buffalo boasts one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 24.9 points and averaging 376.7 yards per game. Jose Allen is having an MVP-caliber season thus far. He is completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,018 yard with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 204 yards and three scores as one of the best dual-threats in the game, something the Patriots will struggle with.
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Bills off three straight ATS losses. They should be closer to 7-point favorites in this game. The Bills are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games off three or more consecutive ATS losses. New England is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two years. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|11-01-20||Colts v. Lions +3||41-21||Loss||-110||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Lions +3
The Detroit Lions have some momentum right now after going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall to live up to their potential. All three wins came on the road over the Cardinals, Jaguars and Falcons. And their last-second win over the Falcons last week keeps their momentum going. Their only defeat came by 6 against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints.
Now the Lions host the Colts, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers as 3-point road favorites here. The Colts are 4-2 but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, while the Lions have played one of the toughest. The Lions have faced four teams with winning records, while the Colts have only faced two in the Bears and Browns, who are both overrated.
Philip Rivers looks like a shell of his former self. He has a 7-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season. Matthew Stafford is clearly the better quarterback with the better weapons in this matchup. He has a 10-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season and has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL. And he has been even better since getting his favorite target in Kenny Golloday back from injury after missing the first two games, both losses by the Lions.
The Lions have more talent on defense than they get credit for too, and that unit has played up to their potential the last two weeks in limiting the Jaguars to 16 points and the Lions to 22 points. And I think they’ll continue to have success against a Colts offense that hasn’t been great despite feasting on one of the easiest schedules of opposing defenses in the NFL. Football outsiders has them ranked as the 22nd-best offense in the NFL. Football outsiders also identifies the Colts have playing the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL thus far, while the Lions have played the 14th-toughest schedule.
Frank Reich is 2-9 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game as the coach of the Colts. I believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup and Detroit has a great chance to win this game outright. Take the Lions Sunday.
|11-01-20||Vikings +7 v. Packers||28-22||Win||100||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Minnesota Vikings (1-5) and sell high on the Green Bay Packers (5-1). And an easy way to see that the Vikings are undervalued while the Packers are overvalued is to compare this line to the line from Week 1. The Vikings were actually favored over the Packers in Week 1, and now they are 7-point dogs, which has been at least an 8-point adjustment. That’s too much.
The Vikings are better than their 1-5 record would indicate. They have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL and have two 1-point losses to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Seahawks and Titans. And after giving away that game to the Seahawks, they laid an egg in last game against the Falcons with a 23-40 home loss.
The Vikings have since had a bye week to recover from that loss to the Falcons. And you know Mike Zimmer will have this team improving greatly with two weeks to prepare for the Packers. You also know that the Vikings will be highly motivated to face a division rival and first place team in the Packers. This is their chance to really turn their season around, and they will make the most of it. Getting 7 points with the Vikings is too much.
The bye week has also allowed star RB Dalvin Cook to return from an injury that kept him out against the Falcons. This offense really goes as Cook goes. He has rushed for 489 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.3 yards per carry in five games. He also has 12 receptions for 64 yards and needs involved more in the passing game. Justin Jefferson (28 receptions, 537 yards, 3 TD) and Adam Thielen (32, 415, 7 TD) are great weapons for Cousins outside.
While the Vikings are getting healthier on both sides of the ball with their bye week, the Packers have a lot of injuries with guys listed as questionable. T David Bakhtiari missed last week with a chest injury and is questionable. S Darnell Savage, RB Aaron Jones, DL Tyler Lancaster and CB Kevin King are all questionable as well. Jones would be a huge loss as he has 550 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns this year.
Minnesota is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games off two or more consecutive losses. Zimmer is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more as the coach of Minnesota. This 100% never lost system shows a lot about Zimmer and his ability to get the most out of his teams in this situation. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|11-01-20||Steelers v. Ravens -3||28-24||Loss||-125||119 h 33 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -3
No question the Pittsburgh Steelers are a legit 6-0 and one of the best teams in the NFL. But it’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Steelers this week. They are 5-1 ATS this season and are starting to become a public team. And you can tell there’s line value with the Ravens this week when you consider this line was Ravens -6 last week and now it’s -3 to -3.5 this week.
The only thing that happened to move that line was the Steelers going on the road and beating the Titans 27-24 last week. Well, I had the Steelers as a free pick in that game because I stated that the Titans were one of the most fraudulent 5-0 teams in the history of the NFL. And that came to fruition, even though the Steelers still nearly found a way to lose that game.
Now the Steelers have to go on the road for a second straight week and face a rested, hungry Ravens team coming off their bye week. The Ravens have been dominant this season at 5-1 with their only loss coming to the Kansas City Chiefs. They five wins have come by an average of 17.8 points per game. They should be more than 3-point home favorites here over the Steelers given the situation.
Yes, the Steelers have been great against the run this year, but they haven’t had to face a mobile QB like the one they will be up against Sunday in Lamar Jackson. All Jackson has done is lead a Ravens offense that is averaging a whopping 29.8 points per game. And this is definitely an improved Baltimore defense, one that gives up only 17.3 points and 339.8 yards per game.
You definitely want to be backing John Harbaugh off a bye week. He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Ravens. Mike Tomlin is 6-16 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of the Steelers. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC opponents, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North foes. The Steelres are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Plays on any team (Baltimore) - off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Ravens Sunday.
|10-29-20||Falcons v. Panthers -2.5||Top||25-17||Loss||-119||70 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers -2.5
The Carolina Panthers are much better than they are getting credit for this season. Matt Rhule is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of this team, and Teddy Bridgewater continues to be a covering machine dating back to his time with the Vikings and Saints. It was a great fit for the Panthers getting Bridewater, and he has had them competitive in every game they’ve played.
The Panthers are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat the Chargers and Falcons on the road while also topping the Cardinals at home. They only lost by a touchdown to the Bears at home and had a chance to force OT at the end. And last week they were in a tough spot facing a Saints team off a bye on the road, yet nearly knocked them off in a 24-27 loss as 7-point dogs.
And there’s good news on the horizon for the Panthers. Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Monday and there’s a very real possibility he’ll play Thursday. Either way, they have still been winning without him and will continue to do so if he doesn’t play. Getting him back would just be an added bonus. And I like backing home teams on these short weeks when possible, and I think there’s a ton of value getting the Panthers at -2.5 here under a field goal.
It’s going to be tough for the Falcons to get back up off the mat after the way they lost to the Lions Sunday. All Todd Gurley had to do was not score at the end and they could have kicked the game-winning field goal. Instead, they left just enough time for Matthew Stafford and Lions to drive down the field and score the game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game. I just don’t see how they can possibly bounce back from that gut-wrenching loss at the buzzer, especially not a 1-6 team like the Falcons with zero playoff aspirations.
The Panthers already beat the Falcons 23-16 in their first meeting this season in Atlanta. They racked up 437 total yards on the Falcons and held them to 369. They led 20-7 at half and really should have won by more. Bridewater went 27-of-36 passing for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Mike Davis rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries. Both should have great games against this awful Atlanta defense that is giving up 29.6 points and 425.9 yards per game this season.
It’s also worth noting that this will be just the 2nd outdoor game of the season for the Falcons, who are built to play in a dome. In their first, they lost 16-30 at Green Bay as their offense just couldn’t get anything going. Their speed just doesn’t play nearly as well on a grass field like the one Carolina has. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass. Bet the Panthers Thursday.
|10-26-20||Bears v. Rams UNDER 45.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||144 h 10 m||Show|
20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bears/Rams UNDER 45.5
Two of the best defensive teams in the NFL square off Monday night when the Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears. Points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so we’ll side with the UNDER 45.5 points here. Both teams are 4-2 to the UNDER this season.
The Bears are 5-1 this season behind a defense that is giving up just 19.3 points and 337.2 yards per game. This defense is the only reason they are 5-1 because their offense has been putrid outside of a couple fourth quarter comebacks against both the lowly Lions and Falcons. The Bears average just 21.3 points and 312.8 yards per game.
The Rams are off to a 4-2 start this season behind a defense that gives up only 19.0 points and 318.5 yards per game. The Rams are also running at a much slower pace this season and not throwing the ball all over the yard. Instead, they have become more of a power running team, averaging 31 rush attempts per game compared to only 32 pass attempts. It’s clear Sean McVey doesn’t exactly trust Jared Goff.
The last two meetings in this series over the past two seasons have been extremely low-scoring. Indeed, the Rams won 17-7 at home last year for just 24 combined points. And the Bears won 15-6 in 2018 for 21 combined points during the Rams’ Super Bowl season.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Bears last 11 games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bears last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 10-3 in Bears last 13 as road underdogs. The UNDER is 6-0 in Rams last six October games. The UNDER is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as favorites. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|10-25-20||49ers v. Patriots -2.5||Top||33-6||Loss||-102||116 h 23 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -2.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the New England Patriots this week. They are coming off two straight losses to the Chiefs and Broncos where they also failed to cover. Now we are getting them at a great value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the San Francisco 49ers this week.
The losses are easily explainable. The Patriots have only had one padded practice in the last two weeks due to Covid-19 issues. They just haven’t had the time together they’ve needed. Yet they still gave the Chiefs all they wanted even without Cam Newton. They outgained the Chiefs by 34 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-1, which was the difference.
And last week Newton came back and was a little rusty. The defense did a good job of holding the Broncos to six field goals to give the offense a chance. And the Patriots had the ball with a chance to win it in the end. But they came up short, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have his team playing with a chip on its shoulder. I can’t remember the last time Belichick lost three straight games.
At the same time, it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the San Francisco 49ers. They got their signature win last week against the Rams to bounce back from their embarrassing 43-17 loss to the Dolphins. But that was a bad spot for the Rams because they were playing their fourth road game in five games with three of those trips all the way out East. They predictably had an off game, and the 49ers took advantage.
Now the 49ers go from facing a fat and happy Rams team to a pissed off Patriots team. And the 49ers still have the same issues that got them off to an ugly start this season that included upset home losses as 6.5-point favorites or more to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. Their injury report is a mess, and it got worse last week.
The 49ers lost starting RB Raheem Mostert and starting C Ben Garland in the win over the Rams. They also had T Trent Williams get injured and his return is questionable this week. They were already missing CB Richard Sherman, C Richburt, DE Bosa, DT Thomas, DE Ford, DE Ansah, LB Alexander and CB Williams. The only team with possibly a worse injury report than the 49ers is the Eagles.
The Patriots are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games following a loss. New England is 42-17-2 ATS in its last 61 October games. Bet the Patriots Sunday.
|10-25-20||Bucs v. Raiders +3||45-20||Loss||-120||116 h 3 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Raiders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Las Vegas +3
The Las Vegas Raiders are better than they are getting credit for this season. That is the case again here as they are coming off their bye week yet they are still 3-point home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs. We’ll gladly keep backing this team until the markets catch up to them.
The Raiders opened the season with a 34-30 win at Carolina and a 34-24 home win over the Saints. Both of those wins have aged well. Their loss to the Patriots wasn’t as bad as the score would indicate as they were only outgained by 31 yards by New England, and that was before the Patriots were hit with Covid-19 and playing well.
Then the Raiders lost 23-30 at home to Buffalo despite outgaining the Bills by 46 yards. And they bounced back with their most impressive win of the season, a 40-32 win at Kansas City as 11-point dogs. There was nothing fluky at all about that victory as they racked up 490 yards on the Chiefs and outgained them by 77 yards.
This team is finally starting to look like what John Gruden envisioned when he took over. They have a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.2 points and 399 yards per game this season. There is a lot of MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson and others, but no mention of Derek Carr, which is a shame because he’s having a monster season. Carr is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,442 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio through five games.
I cashed in the Bucs last week against the Packers, but now it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them after their misleading 38-10 win. They basically got 14 of those points off of back-to-back Aaron Rodgers interceptions. Tom Brady didn’t have to do much as he went 17-of-27 for 166 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. Brady is definitely showing his age a little more this season, and the Raiders clearly have the better quarterback in this matchup.
Bruce Arians is 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% in all games as a head coach. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in this situation over the last three seasons. Tampa Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. We’ll back the rested, underrated team off their bye week catching points at home this week. Roll with the Raiders Sunday.
|10-25-20||Browns v. Bengals +3.5||Top||37-34||Win||100||113 h 58 m||Show|
20* AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals are much better than their 1-4-1 record would indicate. They have three losses by 5 points or less as well as a tie this season. And their only blowout loss came 3-27 to the Baltimore Ravens, the same team that also beat Cleveland 38-6.
The Browns are way overrated with their 4-2 record right now. Their two losses have come by a combined score of 76-13 to the Ravens and Steelers. Those results have them actually getting outscored by 4.0 points per game on the season. To compare, Cincinnati is only getting outscored by 4.7 points per game. So getting +3.5 with the Bengals at home here is a nice value.
Plus, the Bengals want revenge from their 30-35 road loss to the Browns in their first meeting this season. And the Bengals are healthier since then as they just got AJ Green back from injury. They played great against the Colts on the road last week but couldn’t hold onto their 21-0 lead. Their kicker missed a key FG that could have turned the tide of that game late.
Things have gotten worse for the Browns since. Their lost their best running back in Nick Chubb, and the best thing they had going for them was their rushing attack this season. That’s because Baker Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and now he’s dealing with a rib injury that limited him against the Steelers last week and eventually saw him replaced by Case Keenum. The Browns are only averaging 189 passing yards per game this season. Mayfield is averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt with a 10-to-6 TD/INT ratio.
Joe Burrow has looked great this season outside that game against the Ravens in which he didn’t have Green or Ross to throw the ball too. He is completing 65% of his passes for 1,617 yards through six games this season, averaging 269.5 yards per game. He torched the Browns for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception in their first meeting this season, and it should be more of the same Sunday. Burrow is living up to the hype that made him the #1 pick in the draft.
Cincinnati’s defense has improved greatly the last few weeks, especially against the run. They are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game in their last three games. They held the Ravens to just 332 total yards as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate, but unfortunately their offense couldn’t get anything going since Burrow was missing his main weapon in Green. He’s growing a great chemistry with Green, Higgins and Boyd as the Bengals have some of the most underrated weapons in the NFL.
Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. The Browns are 16-39-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a loss. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-22-20||Giants +4.5 v. Eagles||Top||21-22||Win||100||48 h 18 m||Show|
20* Giants/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on New York +4.5
Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Philadelphia Eagles. They are missing nine starters on offense and five backups to injury. Not to mention, they are missing several big names on the defensive side of the ball as well.
It’s no wonder the Eagles are off to a 1-4-1 start this season. And they used everything they had to try and come back against the Ravens last week after they found themselves trailing 24-6 entering the 4th quarter. They outscored the Ravens 22-6 in the final period, but came up a 2-point conversion short.
When teams lose a heartbreaker like that, I like to fade them the next week. And this is the perfect time to do so because now the Eagles are on a short week and will certainly be fatigued and not fully recovered. They already lack depth across the board with all these injuries and should not be this big of a favorite because of it.
The Giants are squarely in the NFC East race, just like the Eagles, because the division has been so bad. What the Giants have going for them is probably the best defense in the division if it’s not Washington. They have held three of their first six opponents to 19 or fewer points and have a defense that can keep them in ball games.
The last three weeks they have played much better than the first three. They took the Rams to the wire on the road, held a late lead against the Cowboys on the road, and beat Washington at home. They will be in this game for four quarters, so getting +4.5 is a nice value.
The Giants have been a great bet on the road over the years, especially recently. New York is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Giants are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as road underdogs. New York is 8-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three seasons. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Giants Thursday.
|10-19-20||Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5||Top||38-10||Loss||-110||75 h 47 m||Show|
20* Cardinals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas +1.5
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Dallas Cowboys Monday night. They are 0-5 ATS on the season having not once covered the spread. They were favored in four of their first five games, and now they are home underdogs for the first time all season. That’s why this is a ‘buy low’ spot and a great value on the Cowboys.
A lot is being made of the injury to Dak Prescott, but fortunately for the Cowboys they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Andy Dalton. And he put up even better numbers than Dak Prescott did in his first four seasons in the NFL. Dalton has the luxury of having arguably the most offensive talent around him of anyone in the NFL.
Dalton used that talent to guide the Cowboys on a game-winning drive to beat the Giants last week, 37-34, after replacing Prescott. He finished 9-of-11 for 111 yards in the win and threw some great sideline routes where his receivers made some great plays for him as well. This offense is going to keep on humming.
The Cardinals are 3-2 this season, but their three wins have come against the Jets, 49ers and Washington who are a combined 3-12 on the season. They also lost to the Lions and Panthers. This is easily the toughest test of the season for the Cardinals, and I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their blowout win over the hapless Jets last week.
The Cardinals are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Arizona is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday night games. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a home underdog. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Arizona. Bet the Cowboys Monday.
|10-18-20||Packers v. Bucs +1||10-38||Win||100||47 h 58 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bucs Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay +1
Not all bye weeks are created equal. Some come at better times than others. And I actually think this is a bad time for the Packers to have a bye. They had a ton of momentum with their 4-0 start, but now that momentum comes to a halt here.
Now the Packers go into their bye week feeling fat and happy instead of hungry. And it’s not the normal advantage for the Packers because their opponent played last Thursday, so it’s a mini-bye week for the Tampa Bay Bucs. And we have a hungry Bucs team coming off a bad last-second loss to the Bears in which they blew a 13-0 lead.
Getting Tom Brady off a loss as a home underdog is a great proposition. I don’t think we’ve ever had a chance to back him as a home dog off a loss, at least not that I can remember. And Brady now should have nearly his full compliment of weapons. Chris Godwin will return from a couple game absence, and Mike Evans and Scotty Miller are both expected to play as well. The Bucs are about as healthy as they’ve been all season.
It’s just a great time to ’sell high’ on the Packers, who have feasted on an easy schedule thus far. Their 4-0 record has come against teams that are a combined 5-14 on the season. This will be their stiffest test yet, and I expect the Bucs to hand them their first defeat.
The Bucs get a lot of praise for their explosive offense, but it is their underrated defense that makes them so good. The Bucs are among the best teams in the NFL in giving up just 298.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 62 yards per game below their season averages. The Packers give up 6.4 yards per play, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.
Plays on underdogs or PK (Tampa Bay) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% & 60% of their games on the season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1983. Tampa Bay is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less in all games he has coached. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|10-18-20||Bengals +8 v. Colts||Top||27-31||Win||100||93 h 25 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Bengals +8
The Cincinnati Bengals played four straight one-score games to start the season. They finally got their first taste of victory in Week 4 against the Jaguars after some tough losses the first three weeks. And I think they exhaled and relaxed last week in their blowout loss to the Ravens.
Cincinnati’s defense played well enough to win that game, holding the Ravens to just 332 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. But their offense couldn’t get anything going and committed three turnovers. Their offense should get back to playing how it was before that game.
The Bengals had averaged nearly 29 points per game in their three games prior to the Ravens. AJ Green sat out last week, but he is expected back this week so Burrow will have his favorite target back. And there’s a good chance the Bengals get John Ross back from a four-game absence at receiver too. He has been upgraded to questionable this week.
The Bengals should be able to hang with a suspect Indianapolis offense that just isn’t very good led by Philip Rivers. He is a shell of his former self, and he doesn’t have nearly the weapons in Indy that he did with the Chargers. Rivers has a 4-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season through five games.
And keep in mind the Colts have played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL thus far. Their defense was exposed for 32 points by the Browns last week. They were missing their best player on defense in LB Darius Leonard, and he is doubtful to suit up again this week. The Colts have key injuries on both sides of the ball outside Leonard as well.
This line should be less than a touchdown in my opinion, so getting eight points with the Bengals is a nice value considering they have played in four one-score games in five weeks with the lone exception being the dominant Ravens. You want Rivers as an underdog, you don’t want him when he’s laying points, especially not when he is laying more than a touchdown like he is in this game.
The Bengals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|10-18-20||Browns v. Steelers -3.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||44 h 33 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
The Cleveland Browns are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule. They have faced the Bengals, Redskins and Colts at home as well as the Cowboys on the road. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Browns.
Their big step up in class game came back in Week 1 when they lost 6-38 at Baltimore. And now this is another step up in class here against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season. But oddsmakers aren’t giving the Steelers the respect they deserve.
Pittsburgh’s offense is back to being as dominant as it was in years’ past. With a healthy Ben Roethlisberger back under center, the Steelers have scored at least 26 points in every game. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL to boot, giving up just 302 yards per game. They are the more complete team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.
The Browns have a soft as butter defense that gives up 29.8 points and 382.6 yards per game this season. The Browns have been able to run the ball offensively, but Baker Mayfield is going to have to do more than he has been asked to do to this point. That’s because the Steelers only allow 64 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. This is where the bad Baker comes out.
Pittsburgh is 16-0 SU in its last 16 home meetings with Cleveland. The Steelers are 23-2 SU in their last 25 meetings with the Browns with Big Ben under center. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Cleveland is 7-23-2 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-18-20||Bears v. Panthers -1||23-16||Loss||-107||44 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Carolina Panthers -1
What more do the Carolina Panthers have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers? Teddy Bridgewater has clearly been one of the most underrated starters in the NFL. He has guided the Panthers to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS run in his last three starts. And keep in mind the Panthers were competitive with both the Raiders and Bucs in losses to open the season.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Chicago Bears, who could easily be 0-5 instead of 4-1. They are the most fraudulent team in the NFL in my opinion. They had a 17-point 4th quarter comeback against the Lions and a 16-point 4th quarter comeback against the Falcons. They had to get a stop to beat the Giants by 4. And they got a last-second field goal to beat the Bucs. In their lone loss, they were dominated by the Indianapolis Colts at home.
The numbers tell the story of which team is a fraud and which is not. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game on the season behind an offense that is putting up nearly 400 yards per game. The Bears are getting outgained by 20.8 yards per game with a pitiful offense that averages just 323.2 yards per game.
Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons. Carolina is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|10-18-20||Lions -3 v. Jaguars||34-16||Win||100||44 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Lions -3
The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye and have a chance to regroup and rebound here against a hapless Jacksonville Jaguars team. I love the spot for the Lions, who are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye week.
There’s no question the Lions are better than they have shown. They should be 2-2 right now but blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Bears. Their other two losses came to the Packers and Saints, which are forgivable. They also beat a good Cardinals team on the road.
So this is easily a big step down in class for Detroit, which has played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to this point. They face a Jaguars team that should be 0-5. They were outgained by over 200 yards by the Colts in their lone win, a fluky won. And they’ve gone on to go 0-4 in their last four games overall while getting outscored by 45 points, or by an average of 11.3 points per game. They lost by 18 to the Dolphins, by 8 to the Bengals and by 16 to the Texans, and you could make the argument that the Lions are better than all three of those teams.
Matthew Stafford should have the offense hitting on all cylinders against a soft as butter Jaguars defense that is giving up 29.4 points and 416.8 yards per game. They’ve traded away or lost in free agency almost all of their talent on the defensive side of the ball. Gardner Minshew is a solid quarterback, but he’s in over his head with the lack of talent surrounding him on offense as well.
Plays on any team (Detroit) - a good offensive team averaging 5.4 to 5.8 yards per play against a team with a terrible defense that is allowing 5.8 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 100 yards or more in their last game are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Lions Sunday.
|10-13-20||Bills -3.5 v. Titans||Top||16-42||Loss||-100||9 h 1 m||Show|
20* Bills/Titans AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -3.5
What a mess the last couple weeks have been for the Tennessee Titans. They have now received a total of 24 positive Covid-19 tests dating back to September 24th. But they finally went two days in a row without a positive and now will be able to play this game Tuesday night.
All these positive tests have certainly made practice and prep for this game against Buffalo less than ideal to say the least. And I have to think they will be the less prepared team in this game, which is bad news going up against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills.
The Titans are very fortunate to be 3-0 against a very soft schedule, too. They have three wins against the Broncos, Jaguars and Vikings by a combined 6 points. Those three teams have a combined record of 3-11 this season.
Most concerning is a Tennessee defense that is allowing 24.7 points and 422.3 yards per game against those three teams, which don’t have great offenses, especially the Broncos and Jaguars. And now they have to face one of the league’s best offenses in the Bills, who average 30.8 points and 409.8 yards per game on the season.
Buffalo’s defensive numbers haven’t been up to par for the level of talent they have, but they’ve still managed to go 4-0. And a lot of that is due to injuries. But the Bills are starting to get healthier on that side of the ball, and having a few extra days here to get ready could get some guys back in the lineup that are listed as questionable.
Tennessee is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in two straight are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Bills Tuesday.
|10-12-20||Chargers +8 v. Saints||Top||27-30||Win||100||107 h 59 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +8
The Los Angeles Chargers are much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. After going on the road and beating the Bengals 16-13, the Chargers have lost three straight. But they’ve lost to three very hot teams in the Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs all by 7 points or less.
They lost 20-23 (OT) to Kansas City and outgained the Chiefs by 65 yards. That game alone against the defending Super Bowl champs shows what they are capable of. They lost 16-21 to Carolina despite outgaining the Panthers by 134 yards. And last week they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to the Bucs, 31-38.
The Chargers should not be catching more than a touchdown against the Saints. I would argue the Chargers actually have the better quarterback in Justin Herbert, who has impressed as a rookie in his three starts. Herbert is completing 72% of his passes for 931 yards and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.
Drew Brees has really started to show his age this season. Of course, injuries on offense have not helped matters as the Saints are just 2-2 this season. WR Michael Thomas has been out with an ankle injury since Week 1 and is questionable to return this week. Both starting tackles in Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat are questionable this week, as is TE Jared Cook.
The Saints have also shown a lot of holes defensively this season and a lot of that has to do with injuries as well. Three of their best players in CB Marshon Lattimore, CB Janoris Jenkins and DE Marcus Davenport are all questionable this week. The Saints are giving up 30.8 points per game on the season, so it’s tough to trust them to lay 8 points with that kind of defense.
The Chargers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games off three or more consecutive losses. Los Angeles is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog overall. The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites. Bet the Chargers Monday.
|10-11-20||Vikings +7 v. Seahawks||Top||26-27||Win||100||83 h 4 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings are 1-3 this season but their three losses have come to teams that are a combined 10-1 this season. They did not look good the first couple weeks against the Packers and Colts, but they’ve turned it around since.
After a tough 30-31 loss to the unbeaten Titans, the Vikings went on the road last week and crushed Houston 31-23. Their offense has really gotten going the last couple weeks as they had 464 total yards against the Titans and 410 more against the Texans. Justin Jefferson has back-to-back 100-yard games and is clearly a great replacement for Diggs. And Dalvin Cook is simply a playmaker out of the backfield.
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seahawks, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. They could easily be 1-3. They got a goal-line stand against the Patriots to preserve a 35-30 win, picked off Dak Prescott in the end zone to preserve a 38-31 win, and held the Dolphins to five field goals which was the difference in a 31-23 win.
Now the Seahawks are in their biggest favorite role of the season, laying 7 points to the Vikings this week. The Vikings can match the Seahawks score for score because Seattle has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Indeed, the Seahawks rank 32nd in the NFL in giving up 476.8 yards per game. It will catch up with them eventually, and I believe it does this week. Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side of the football for Seattle. The Seahawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|10-11-20||Dolphins +8.5 v. 49ers||Top||43-17||Win||100||96 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +8.5
The Miami Dolphins are 1-3 and desperate for a win. Their three losses this season have comes against three teams that are a combined 10-2 this season in the Patriots, Bills and Seahawks. Both both losses are by the Patriots, who lost to the Chiefs and Seahawks and gave both a run for their money.
The Dolphins had their chances to beat the Patriots but a INT inside the 5-yard line late prevented the comeback. The Dolphins hung right with the Bills and only lost 28-31. And they lost to the Seahawks by 8 last week, but that game was much closer than the 23-31 final would indicate.
The Dolphins had to settle for five field goals on their first five scoring drives, so they couldn’t capitalize in the red zone. They also had a busted coverage right before halftime that turned a 1-point game into an 8-point game going into intermission. The Seahawks got the ball back with 24 seconds left after yet another Miami field goal, and somehow managed to score a touchdown with three seconds left. The Dolphins were only outgained by 26 yards by Seattle.
And while the Dolphins have one of the best injury situations in the NFL, the 49ers have one of the worst. They had two more starters go down with injury last week in CB K’Waun Williams and DE Ezekiel Ansah, and both are out this week. Ansah was signed to replace Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, who are both on injured reserve, as are DT Solomon Thomas, CB Richard Sherman and C Weston Richburn. QB Jimmy G could return this week, but he’s really not much of an upgrade over Nick Mullens. And they have another handful of players questionable.
The 49ers are 2-2 this season with their only wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants. They lost outright as home favorites of -6.5 or more to both the Cardinals and Eagles, and those losses look worse by the day, too. And this is a role they have struggled in for years.
In fact, the 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine regular season games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or more dating back to 2014. More concerning yet is that the 49ers are 3-6 SU in this role. So don’t even consider using the 49ers in teasers or survivor pools this week. I have a large bet on the Dolphins +8.5 this week and some at +300 on the money line as well. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-11-20||Bengals +13 v. Ravens||3-27||Loss||-103||76 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Bengals +13
The Cincinnati Bengals have been extremely competitive this season and it’s all because of Joe Burrow. All four of their games have been decided by 8 points or fewer and I believe there’s a good chance this one is as well.
After losing to the Chargers by 3 and Browns by 5, the Bengals tied the Eagles 23-23 in Week 3. Then they had their coming out party last week in a 33-25 win over Jacksonville. They racked up 505 total yards in the win behind huge games from Burrow and Joe Mixon. With Burrow and an underrated arsenal of weapons at RB and receiver, the Bengals won’t be out of any game this season.
That’s why I like backing them catching 13 points against the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Ravens let Washington hang around last week and won 31-17 as a 14-point favorite. Cincinnati is a lot better than Washington, so catching 13 points with the Bengals is a really nice value. And keep in mind the Ravens only outgained Washington by 7 yards in that game. In fact, the Ravens are actually getting outgained by 27.2 yards per game on the season. They aren’t as dominant as everyone makes them out to be.
Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (Baltimore) - after having won two of their last three games, in October games are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS since 1983. Cincinnati is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. Baltimore is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite. The Ravens simply should not be favored by double-digits here. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|10-08-20||Bucs -3.5 v. Bears||Top||19-20||Loss||-108||11 h 5 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Bears FOX No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -3.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs have really improved rapidly since a season-opening loss to the Saints on the road. And even that game wasn’t as bad as the score as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and held the Saints to 271 total yards.
The Bucs have reeled off three straight wins by a combined 39 points since. And now they head to Chicago to face a Bears team that really could be 0-4 right now, but they’re 3-1 and overvalued as a result.
The Bears came back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Lions in their opener. They had to come up with a defensive stand on the final drive to beat the Giants 17-13. They came back from 16 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Falcons. And last week they lost 11-19 to the Colts in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score would indicate.
The Colts held the Bears to just 3 points through the first 58 minutes of that game. But the Bears got a garbage TD late and a 2-point conversion to turn a 19-3 game into a 19-11 one. It’s clear that Nick Foles is not the savior and probably not even much of an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky, who at least has a dual-threat ability.
Tampa Bay is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after scoring 35 points or more last game. This Bucs offense is humming, averaging 32.3 points per game in their last three. Tom Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns against a very good Chargers defense last week. The Bears are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Bucs Thursday.
|10-05-20||Falcons +7.5 v. Packers||Top||16-30||Loss||-120||99 h 6 m||Show|
20* Falcons/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Green Bay Packers. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season against the Vikings, Lions and Saints, who are a combined 2-7 this season. They are coming off their big upset win over the overrated Saints on Sunday Night Football last week.
It’s also a great time to ‘buy low’ on the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons, who have lost to three teams that are a combined 7-2 on the season. And keep in mind the Falcons were in all three of those games. They had 506 total yards against the Seahawks, then blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point 4th quarter lead against the Bears.
It’s clear the Falcons can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL in scoring 30 points per game and averaging 419 yards per game. And there’s a good chance they get Julio Jones back from injury this week.
Speaking of injuries, Aaron Rodgers could be without his top two receivers this week, and there’s really not much talent at all behind Devante Adams and Allen Lazard. Adams missed last week with a hamstring injury and is questionable, while Lazard had surgery on a core muscle and is out multiple weeks. That’s a big blow as Lazard and Adams have combined for 30 receptions for 446 yards and four touchdowns through three games.
The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau Field. Bet the Falcons Monday.
|10-04-20||Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers||25-20||Win||100||74 h 26 m||Show|
15* Eagles/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +7.5
This is a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Philadelphia Eagles. They have opened 0-2-1 this season despite being favored in all three games. Now they have moved to whopping +7.5-point underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers this week.
It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on the 49ers, who are coming off two straight blowout victories over arguably the two worst teams in the NFL in the Jets and Giants. The 49ers have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL and have been able to overcome it against those two teams. But they won’t be able to against the Eagles, at least not enough to put them away by 8-plus points, which is what it’s going to take to cover this spread.
The 49ers are without five of their best defensive players in Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Dre Greenlaw and Richard Sherman. They are without C Richburg, RB Coleman, RB Mostert and they could be without QB Garoppolo and WR Samuel. The Eagles also have some injuries, but they are nowhere near as bad as the situation for the 49ers.
The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. They lost outright as 7-point home favorites over the Cardinals in Week 1. Roll with the Eagles Sunday.
|10-04-20||Seahawks v. Dolphins +7||Top||31-23||Loss||-115||95 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7
It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Seattle Seahawks. They have opened the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS despite having a terrible defense that gives up 28.7 points and 497 yards per game. They just cannot be trusted in this price range with this awful of a defense.
The Seahawks are coming off two straight last-second home wins over the Patriots and Cowboys. They stopped the Patriots at the 1-yard line to preserve that win, and then they picked off Dat Prescott in the end zone to preserve their win over the Cowboys last week.
Now this has the makings of a letdown spot for Seattle going on the road to face the Dolphins. It’s a West Coast team traveling East for that dreaded early 10:00 AM body clock game. It’s just a terrible spot for the Seahawks.
The Dolphins are just 1-2 this season, but they had their chances to win in their opener against the Patriots. And they only lost 28-31 to a very good Buffalo team that is 3-0. And last Thursday they dominated the Jaguars every way you can in a 31-13 road win as 3-point underdogs.
Now the Dolphins are playing on extra rest and will have more time to prepare for the Seahawks after playing on Thursday last week. And this is a team that really believes in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week and is still somehow grossly underrated as a starter in this league.
The Seahawks have all kinds of injuries right now. They are missing several players in the secondary and at linebacker on defense. Both starting guards got hurt last week on the offensive line, as did their best running back in Chris Carson. Few teams have been hit harder by injuries early in the season than the Seahawks, and it’s eventually going to catch up to them. Not even Russell Wilson can save the day.
Plays against favorites (Seattle) who are off a home win, in the first month of the season are 81-43 (65.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|10-01-20||Broncos v. Jets -1||Top||37-28||Loss||-105||11 h 35 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Jets AFC No-Brainer on New York -1
The injury situations for both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos are a mess. I just think the injuries are worse for the Broncos, and the short week will favor Sam Darnold and the Jets over third-string QB Brett Rypien and Denver.
The Broncos had a combined 18 Pro Bowls when the 53-man roster was finalized to begin the season. Now, only Melvin Gordon and his two Pro Bowls are left after Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye all went out with injuries. Rypien will be making his first NFL start in place of the benched Jeff Driskel, who took the place of injured starter Drew Lock.
Certainly there hasn’t been much to like about the Jets this season. But they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL against the Bills, 49ers and Colts, who are a combined 7-2 on the season. This is a big step down in class for them and a game they can certainly win.
Coach Adam Gase likes the way that Darnold is showing some fire and doing everything he can to get this thing turned around. And Darnold will get back one of his favorite weapons in Jamison Crowder from injury. Crowder had seven receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Buffalo before missing the past two games with injury. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|09-28-20||Chiefs v. Ravens -3.5||Top||34-20||Loss||-106||93 h 37 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -3.5
The Baltimore Ravens have had this game circled on their calendars all offseason. And they’ve done a good job of not overlooking their first two opponents to get to it, handling their business in a 38-6 home win over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite and a 33-16 road win at Houston as a 7-point favorite. It’s clear the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they’re going to be out to prove it Monday night in a big way.
The Chiefs barely escaped with a 23-20 win at Los Angeles as 9-point favorites last week against a rookie QB in Justin Herbert, who diced them up. The Chiefs allowed 479 total yards to a bad Chargers offense in that game, and they have a mess of injuries up and down their defense that is going to hurt them against the Ravens.
These teams have a common opponent to compare to in the Texans. The Ravens were much more dominant in their 33-16 road win than the score would even indicate. They outgained the Texans by 103 yards. The Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 9 yards in their 34-20 home win that was much closer than the score would indicate. And after that Chargers game, the Chiefs are now getting outgained by 28 yards per game on the season, while the Ravens have outgained their two opponents by an average of 87 yards per game.
Baltimore also wants revenge from a 28-33 loss to the Chiefs last season and a 24-27 (OT) loss in 2018. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents. Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|09-27-20||Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks||31-38||Loss||-109||65 h 51 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +5
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off the type of win that could really rally their team this week. They suffered a tough 17-20 loss to the Rams in Week 1. Then they found themselves trailing 24-39 to the Falcons with under five minutes remaining in the third quarter last week.
But the Cowboys kept fighting, got it to a 2-point game, and recovered a great onside kick. They went on to kick the game-winning field goal and beat the Falcons 40-39. I think they carry that momentum into this week against the Seattle Seahawks, who won’t have a home-field advantage at all like they normally do with the 12th man.
And without that home-field advantage, plus having a defense that is soft as better, the Seahawks cannot be laying 5 points this week to the Cowboys. I look at these are pretty much even teams, so I’m going to take the 5 points every time.
Indeed, the Seahawks are giving up a whopping 27.5 points and 485 yards per game through two games. The Falcons diced them up for 508 yards in Week 1, and Cam Newton had his best game in years with 397 passing yards last week. Dak Prescott is going to dice them up this week as he has some of the best weapons in the NFL, and that was on display against the Falcons last week as the Cowboys racked up 570 total yards in their comeback win.
The Seahawks are also being overvalued due to all of the MVP talk surrounding Russell Wilson. This is simply the case of the betting public getting mesmerized by the fancy offense the Seahawks have put up so far. And they’re overlooking their atrocious defense. And Wilson faced two soft defenses in the Falcons and Patriots as well. It’s also a bit of a letdown spot after beating the Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
Dallas is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at halftime. The Cowboys are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games after allowing 35 points or more last game. Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog. Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games.
Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|09-27-20||Bears v. Falcons -3||Top||30-26||Loss||-110||95 h 37 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -3
There is a big strength of schedule gap here between the Falcons and Bears thus far. The Falcons are 0-2, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks and Cowboys. The Bears are 2-0, but they’ve only beaten the Lions and Giants by a combined 7 points.
The Bears came back from a 23-6 deficit in the 4th quarter against a depleted Lions secondary in Week 1 that went on to get gashed by the Packers last week. And they only beat the banged-up Giants 17-13 at home, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.
The Falcons beat themselves against the Seahawks, gaining 508 total yards and outgaining the Seahawks by 123 yards. And then they blew a 39-24 4th quarter lead against the Cowboys with under five minutes remaining last week. It was a fluky loss as Atlanta had a chance to put the game away, but Julio Jones dropped a wide open TD pass he normally would catch.
Matt Ryan and this Falcons offense is hitting on all cylinders. They have some of the best talent in the NFL at receiver and that has been on display through two weeks. The Bears still have Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, and it’s just hard to trust him to play at anything other than a below-average level week in and week out because he is arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.
Chicago is 0-7 ATS after playing a home games over the last two seasons. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games with their only win coming with that miracle comeback win at Detroit in Week 1. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|09-27-20||Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns||20-34||Loss||-114||61 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +7.5
I faded the Browns with success last week as I stated they shouldn’t be 6-point favorites against almost anyone in the NFL, and the Bengals came through in a 5-point loss. And now I’m definitely fading the Browns again this week laying a whopping 7.5 points to Washington.
I think it’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Washington after losing 15-30 at Arizona last week. Arizona just looks like the real deal through two weeks, so it’s not a bad loss. And people are quick to forget they upset the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point dogs in Week 1. It’s a Washington team that is consistently going to have its lines inflated because the betting public wants nothing to do with them because they aren’t flashy.
But the Redskins are strong where it counts as they have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. They sacked Carson Wentz eight times in Week 1 thanks to having five former first-round picks up front. And they will make life difficult on the overrated Baker Mayfield in this one, while also shutting down Cleveland’s solid rushing tack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, who went off against a soft Bengals defense last week.
The Browns have injuries all over their defense that should lead to the best game of the season thus far for Dwayne Haskins and company. Pass rushers Vernon and Clayborn are questionable, as are defensive backs Ward and Williams. And they’re already missing Delpit in the secondary. We saw Joe Burrow dice up the Browns for 30 points and 285 passing yards last week to keep the Bengals in the game as they just just couldn’t get him off the field.
Ron Rivera is 24-8 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached. Rivera is 10-2 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more in all games he has coached. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites. Cleveland is 24-50-2 ATS in its last 76 games overall.
Plays against home favorites (Cleveland) with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS since 1983. Take Washington Sunday.
|09-24-20||Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars||31-13||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC ANNIHILATOR on Miami +3
The Miami Dolphins will be highly motivated for a victory Thursday after opening 0-2 this season. But they’ve played a brutal schedule facing both the Patriots and Bills, two of the best teams in the AFC. Now they take a big step down in class here against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Dolphins nearly covered as 7-point dogs against the Patriots but lost 11-21 after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an INT from inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. They did cover as 5.5-point dogs in a 28-31 loss to Buffalo last week. And they should not be catching a full 3 points against the Jaguars this week, if catching points at all.
The Jaguars are getting a lot of respect for starting 2-0 ATS. They got a miracle 27-20 win over the Colts as 7-point dogs despite getting outgained by 204 yards. And last week’s performance was much better despite losing, falling 30-33 as 7-point dogs at Tennessee. Then again, I think the Titans are overvalued as well after what they did making a run to the AFC Championship last year.
The Jaguars lost almost all of their best players on defense this offseason, which is why they can’t be trusted in the favorites role. They give up 26.5 points and 399.5 yards per game thus far. Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to find plenty of holes in their D, especially after he led the Dolphins to 28 points against a very good Buffalo D last week.
Plays against home favorites (Jacksonville) - a team with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS since 1983. Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite. Take the Dolphins Thursday.
|09-21-20||Saints v. Raiders +5.5||Top||24-34||Win||100||98 h 14 m||Show|
20* Saints/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland +5.5
The Los Vegas Raiders are primed to take another step forward under John Gruden. He added a ton of speed on offense at the skill positions, and he shored up the defense in the offseason through free agency. The Raiders are definitely a team to watch out for in 2020.
They opened their season with a 34-30 win at Carolina as 3-point favorites. The offense played well in gaining 372 total yards, and the defense played well for three quarters as the Raiders had a 27-15 lead heading into the fourth. I don’t think their task will be much tougher against the Saints at all this week defensively.
New Orleans is coming off a misleading 34-23 win over Tampa Bay last week. The Saints only gained 271 total yards in that game, but they won the turnover battle 3-0, which was the difference. Now the Saints’ offense takes a huge hit as they’ll be without the most productive receiver in the NFL in Michael Thomas for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury. He is Drew Brees’ security blanket, and without him this offense is average at best.
Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 77-37 (67.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Raiders will be pumped to break in the all-new Allegiant Stadium tonight. They should not be catching 5.5 points against the Saints tonight in a game they can win outright. Bet the Raiders Monday.
|09-20-20||Washington Football Team +7 v. Cardinals||15-30||Loss||-105||70 h 4 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +7
I cashed in Washington against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. It didn’t look good early as they were down 17-0. But they dug in and completely shut down the Eagles the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-17. They forced four 3 and outs, stopped the Eagles twice on downs, and forced three turnovers after being down 17-0.
I mentioned in my analysis on that pick that Washington had the best defensive line in the NFL, and teams can win with a good defensive line. They drafted the best player in the draft in Chase Young, who had a sack and basically forced two fumbles. Young joins four other first-round picks on this dominant Washington defensive line.
They sacked Carson Wentz a whopping eight times in that game. They held the Eagles to just 265 total yards. And they have what it takes up front to get after Kyler Murray this week and slow him down.
The Cardinals are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers off their upset win over the 49ers. That was a 49ers team that only had three healthy receivers and were down to a third-string center. Now the Cardinals go from being 7-point dogs to the 49ers to 7-point favorites over the Redskins. That’s a 14-point swing, and for comparison’s sake, the 49ers aren’t 14 points better than the Redskins.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera will see that DeAndre Hopkins had 14 catches against the 49ers and game plan around stopping him. Murray had 14 completions to Hopkins and only 12 other completions. So it’s pretty clear they are making a point of getting the ball to Hopkins, so expect plenty of double-teams on him.
Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last three seasons. Rivera is 17-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached. So he is good at getting his team to keep playing with momentum off a big win. Washington will give Arizona a run for its money. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|09-20-20||Giants +5.5 v. Bears||Top||13-17||Win||100||67 h 60 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +5.5
The Chicago Bears had one of the luckiest wins you will ever see against the Detroit Lions last week. They trailed 23-6 in the 4th quarter and had about a 2% chance to win. They went on to score three straight touchdowns to take the 27-23 lead, only to let the Lions drive down for the potential game-winning touchdown. But DeAndre Swift dropped a would-be TD in the end zone and the Bears won.
The Lions had a couple players go down to injury in the secondary, and Mitchell Trubisky went from looking like the worst quarterback in the NFL for three quarters, to Joe Montana in the fourth quarter. I believe Trubisky is the former and not the latter, and that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.
While the Bears played a pretty easy opponent in Week 1, the Giants got stuck playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost 16-26 to a Steelers team that just got Big Ben back healthy this season. But what made that game so difficult was the Steelers defense, which is easily a Top 5 unit and potential the best defense in the NFL.
This is a much easier test for Daniel Jones and the offense as well as this Giants defense. There’s no way the Bears should be favored by 5.5 points against almost any team in the NFL this season. So we are going to grab these points this week.
And it’s worth noting three key defensive players are questionable for the Bears this week in LB Khalil Mack, LB Robert Quinn and DT Akeem Hicks. The Giants should get back WR Golden Tate from a hamstring injury this week to give Jones another weapon outside. He has plenty of them now with Tate, Shepard, Engram and Barkley to produce a quality offense.
The Giants are a perfect 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last three seasons. New York is 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three years. Chicago is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a close win by 7 points or less over a division opponent. The Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. NFC East opponents. The Giants are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs. New York is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games overall. Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Chicago. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|09-20-20||Rams v. Eagles -105||37-19||Loss||-105||67 h 60 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles ML -105
This line is a complete overreaction to what happened Week 1. The Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites and the money has poured in on the Rams early in the week, going to Rams -1 as of this writing. That’s a 4.5-point adjustment, and an overreaction to Week 1 results.
The Eagles were upset 17-27 by the Redskins as roughly 6-point favorites in Week 1. They blew a 17-0 lead against a Washington team that I am higher on than most. I had Washington in that game and they delivered for me with the comeback. Their best defensive line in the league sacked Carson Wentz eight times. The task gets much easier for Wentz this week against the Rams.
Meanwhile, the Rams upset the Cowboys 20-17 last week as 3-point dogs to open, but eventually that line was bet down to close to a pick ‘em. I also cashed in the Rams in that game and felt kind of fortunate that there was an offensive pass interference call that changed the game. The Cowboys were a mess defensively with injuries, and the Rams still only managed 20 points on them.
Things get much tougher for Jared Goff and company this week. The Eagles have a Top 10 defense and they’ll be able to slow down Goff and company. Plus they’ll be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Rams will be feeling pretty good about themselves after upsetting the Cowboys.
Teams that were 5.5-point favorites or more in Week 1 that lost outright come back to go 26-11 ATS in their last 37 tries in Week 2. This trend makes sense why it works because it’s betting on teams that were supposed to be good coming into the season, they laid an egg in Week 1, and they’re likely to bounce back in Week 2. That’s the case for the Eagles Sunday.
The Eagles are getting a lot of good news on the injury front. They had several offensive linemen go down to injuries against the Redskins. But G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson are both listed as probable as of Thursday, and those are two of their best linemen. RB Miles Sanders is also probable after sitting out last week, and DE Derek Barnett is probable as well after sitting out last week.
The Rams are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Eagles. Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Los Angeles. Dating back further, Philadelphia is 10-3 SU & 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with the Rams. Take the Eagles Sunday.
|09-17-20||Bengals +6 v. Browns||Top||30-35||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Browns AFC North No-Brainer on Cincinnati +6
The Cincinnati Bengals looked pretty good Week 1 all things considered. They were breaking in a new quarterback in Joe Burrow, who won us a lot of money when he was at LSU and who I have a lot of confidence will continue his success in the NFL. And he did everything he could to win them the game in Week 1.
Indeed, Burrow drove the Bengals down for what would have been the game-winning score to AJ Green, but Green was called for offensive pass interference. The Bengals then had to settle for a field goal attempt, which Randy Bullock somehow missed. He either really injured his calf or faked it because he missed it so badly.
The Bengals lost the turnover battle 2-0 in that game but still had a chance to win. And their defense held the Chargers to just 16 points and 16-of-30 passing for 207 yards in the loss. I like the weapons on this team for Burrow with Green, Mixon, Boyd and company. The Bengals’ stock is going to rise rapidly this year.
The Browns couldn’t have looked worse in Week 1, and I don’t know how they can come back as 6-point favorites after their performance. They lost 6-38 to the Ravens as 7-point underdogs. Baker Mayfield continues to show he has been a bust as he went 21-of-39 for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt in the loss.
More concerning for the Browns was all their injuries. They lost three of four starters in the secondary for that game in rookie Grant Delpit, CB Greedy Williams and CB Kevin Johnson. All three will be out once again on a short week this week. Not to mention, they lost starting LB Jacob Phillips and OT Jedrick Willis in that Ravens game. Phillips is out, while Willis is questionable. They are a mess right now in the injury department to say the least.
A very bad Cincinnati team last year played Cleveland tough in both meetings. They lost 19-27 in the first matchup despite outgaining the Browns 451 to 333 and and holding a 27 to 17 edge in first downs. They got their revenge in Week 17 with a 33-23 win and also outgained the Browns 361 to 313. Now Cincinnati actually has a quarterback instead of a third-stringer, plus one of the top WR’s in the league in Green is back from injury.
The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. Cincinnati is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 September games. The Browns are 24-49-2 ATS in their last 75 games overall. Cleveland is 16-38-1 ATS in its last 55 games following a loss. The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland. Bet the Bengals Thursday.
|09-14-20||Titans v. Broncos +3||Top||16-14||Win||103||11 h 3 m||Show|
20* Titans/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +3
The Denver Broncos closed strong last season in Vic Fangio’s first year on the job. They went 4-1 in their final five games last year with their only loss coming to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the snow.
The Broncos found their QB of the future down the stretch, too. Drew Lock came in and played very well to close out the season. He completed 100-of-156 (64.1%) passes for 1,020 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Broncos have now surrounded him with weapons by drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first two rounds of the draft. They already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fantasias, previous high picks who were the top two receivers last year. And they added in Melvin Gordon, who is just one of three RB’s with 40-catch seasons in each of the past four years. He’ll combined with two-time 1,000-yard rusher Philip Lindsay in the backfield.
While the Broncos will have a much more potent offense than they did a year ago, the defense is also going to be a strength. Too much had been made of the Von Miller injury, and I think the Broncos are undervalued in Week 1 because of it. They still have a loaded defense that ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year, giving up just 19.8 points per game.
The Broncos added in former Titan Jurrell Casey at defensive tackle, and he’s one of the best players in the game. He is also going to be motivated to face his former team, and he’ll be able to offer plenty of insight to Denver coaches about what the Titans like to run on both sides of the ball. That’s a huge advantage. They do lose CB Chris Harris, but new CB A.J. Bouye comes over from the Jaguars and may actually be a better fit for Fangio’s zone-based scheme.
The Titans are getting too much hype to start 2020 after the incredible run they made to close last year. They went 9-4 with Ryan Tannehill as a starter, and they made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after upsetting both the Patriots and Ravens on the road. They held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs before falling 24-35.
The Titans won me a lot of money during that stretch, but that’s because they were undervalued and consistently underdogs. But now they open up as 3-point road favorites in Week 1. As I mentioned, the Titans lost Casey, their best defensive player. They also lost T Jack Conklin and CB Logan Ryan, two of their best players as well who started all 16 games for them last year.
Two of their biggest signings were pass rushers Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney. Beasley wore out his welcome in Atlanta and wasn’t productive at all, and Clowney just can’t seem to stay on the field as he is always injured. Beasley didn’t pass his physical until September 5th after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Clowney didn’t sign his contract until September 7th. Playing int he altitude of Denver will limit the number of reps both get.
Derrick Henry has had two of his worst games against the Broncos. Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards as a rookie in 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 carries in a 16-0 loss to the Broncos last year. You know Fangio is going to make stopping Henry the focal point, and now with Casey as a run-stuffer, the Broncos have the players up front to do it again.
Denver is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Tennessee. Both of the Titans' wins came by exactly 3 points. Denver’s five wins came by an average of 16.0 points per game. Bet the Broncos Monday.
|09-13-20||Cowboys v. Rams +2.5||17-20||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Rams NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5
You’re just not hearing a lot of talk about the Los Angeles Rams this year. They are kind of the forgotten team. They just went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and followed it up with a disappointing 9-7 year last year.
But the Rams did manage to go 11-5 ATS last year, which is impressive for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance. They were 7th in total offense and 13th in total defense, so they were still a pretty good team.
Los Angeles’ offense is loaded once again this year. Jared Goff led the 4th-ranked passing attack last year. And I love the continuity this offense has coming off a crazy offseason with no preseason games.
The Cowboys’ situation is much worse. They brought in Mike McCarthy to install a new system. And while the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, it’s going to take a few weeks to be hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball. I expect the Rams to be efficient in Week 1.
The Cowboys are going to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They failed to address needs on this side of the ball. They lost their most productive defender in Robert Quinn, who has 11.5 sacks last year. They lost their best CB in Byron Jones to the Dolphins.
Dallas signed DT Gerald McCoy, but he was lost for the season three weeks ago with a torn ACL. They are actually hoping for Aldon Smith and Randy Gregory to return from indefinite suspensions due to off-the-field issues. Jaylon Smith is their only reliable linebacker, and their secondary really takes a hit with the loss of Jones. The Rams are just in a better position here in Week 1 and should not be the underdogs in this matchup. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|09-13-20||Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots||Top||11-21||Loss||-116||3 h 36 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins did a great job to get to 5-11 SU & 9-7 ATS last year. They really came on strong in the second half. Head coach Brian Flores has the pulse of his team, and they fought hard to the wire last year.
That included a 27-24 upset win over the Patriots as 15.5-point dogs in Week 17 when the Patriots were playing for home-field advantage. And I like the continuity on this team now that Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which was the right move.
The Dolphins bring back all 11 starters on defense and add in CB Byron Jones, DE Shaq Lawson and LB Kyle Van Noy. Offensively they bring in RB Jordan Howard from Philadelphia and RB Matt Breida from San Francisco. The chemistry between Fitzpatrick and his young receivers should be even better this year.
No doubt Cam Newton will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year, but things aren’t going to go smoothly in Week 1 as he adjusts to the new offense. And the Patriots had several players opt out in the offseason in Dont’a Hightower, Patrick Chung, Marcus Cannon, Brandon Bolden and Matt LaCosse. They cannot be more than 7-point favorites in the opener against Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|09-13-20||Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6.5||17-27||Win||100||3 h 36 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins +6.5
The Washington Redskins come into the 2020 season undervalued off a 3-13 campaign last year. Ron Rivera takes over and enters his 10th season as a head coach. I think he is still one of the better coaches in the NFL as his players always respect and play hard for him.
The Redskins were terrible through the first 10 games last year, but they got much better down the stretch. They went 2-4 in their last six games, but they were competitive in losses to the Packers (by 5), Eagles (by 10) and Giants (OT). Their only blowout loss came in Week 17 to the Cowboys.
Dwayne Haskins got some valuable playing time down the stretch and should be ready for a breakout sophomore season at quarterback. The Redskins are going to have an offense similar to that of the Ravens that is going to be tough for opposing defenses to deal with.
Defensively, they drafted Chase Allen, arguably the best player in the draft. And now they have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Young joins a unit that already includes four first-round picks in Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat. We’ve seen in the NFL that having a dominant defensive line is the most important position group there is.
The Eagles had 10 of their 16 games last year decided by one score. So that fact alone says there’s value here with the Redskins catching nearly a full touchdown. The Eagles lose a ton of key pieces in S Jenkins, CB Darby, DT Jernigan, T Peters and WR Agholor, and their secondary is still a problem. Take the Redskins Sunday.
|09-10-20||Texans v. Chiefs -9||20-34||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* Texans/Chiefs 2020 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City -9
The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs bring back pretty much everyone from last year’s team and have a legitimate shot to defend their crown. They gave Patrick Mahomes the big contract he deserved and he has all his weapons back, plus they drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU in the first round. Their offense will be as explosive as any in the NFL again.
Defensively, the Chiefs held their own last year in giving up just 19.2 points per game, which was the 7th-best mark in the league. They were 11th in sacks (45) and 5th in interceptions (16). And they really didn’t lose anyone of significance defensively with 11 starters back. The only loss is CB Kendall Fuller, who only started four games for the Chiefs last year.
I just don’t like what Bill O’Brien is doing with the Texans. The trade of DeAndre Hopkins was the worst trade of the offseason. They got a washed up running back in David Johnson in return. And the offense is now severely lacking playmakers, especially if Brandon Cooks is unable to go with a quad injury tonight. He is listed as questionable.
While I do think Houston’s offense will be serviceable this year, the defense is going to be atrocious. The Texans finished 28th in total defense, 29th in passing defense and 25th in rushing defense last year. They didn’t do much to address their defense at all, and getting stops will be a problem again, which isn’t good news when facing the Chiefs.
We saw that last year in the playoffs as the Chiefs erased a 24-0 deficit with ease in the playoffs and ended up taking a 28-24 lead into halftime. They went on to win 51-31 as they moved the ball and scored points at will on Houston’s defense. And that was even with J.J. Watt returning from injury in time for the playoffs. There was little he or any other Texan could do to slow down Mahomes and company.
Kansas City went 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS last year. They really have no problem winning by double-digits as 10 of their 15 wins last year came by 10 points or more. I think we see another here to open the 2020 season. Roll with the Chiefs Thursday.
|02-02-20||49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs||Top||20-31||Loss||-110||149 h 52 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +1.5
Defense and running game usually wins out in the Super Bowl. And I’ll gladly side with the better defense and running game against the flashy, high-powered offense of the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 54.
The 49ers are simply the more complete team. The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to rank in the Top 5 in total offense and total defense this season. The 49ers were 4th in total offense at 381.1 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 281.8 yards per game in the regular season. They outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of a dominant team. And the 49ers are close to being 18-0 as their three losses all came on the final play of the game.
The 49ers were dominant in the first half of the season defensively before injuries took their toll. But they got back DE Dee Ford, LB Kwon Alexander and S Jacquisky Tartt late in the season and have had all three for the playoffs. And their defense has been absolutely dominant when they’ve had these three in the lineup.
The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 and held them to just 147 total yards and 7 first downs in the Divisional Round. Then they jumped out to a 27-0 lead on the Packers by halftime, so the stats that Green Bay racked up in garbage time in the 2nd half with the game already decided can be greatly discounted. The 49ers have given up just 252.5 yards per game in the playoffs and that even includes those garbage time yards for the Packers.
Kansas City has played two poor defenses in the playoffs in the Texans and Titans to help boost their offensive numbers. They scored 51 on the Texans and 35 on the Titans. But now this is a big step up in class here against the best defense they will have faced this season, and certainly the best pass rush that can negate what Mahomes can do.
The Chiefs played four solid defenses in a row prior to the playoffs. The Chargers held them to 346 total yards, while the Bears held them to 26 points and 350 total yards, the Broncos held them to 23 points and the Patriots held them to 23 points. I think it’s asking a lot for the Chiefs to top 24 points in this one against this elite 49ers defense.
While the Chiefs’ offense gets all the headlines, the 49ers have actually been the better offense during the regular season. They rank 2nd in the league in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game, only behind the Ravens. Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the NFL, and he knows how to take advantage of the opposing team’s weaknesses defensively.
That’s exactly what he did against the Vikings and Packers. The 49ers rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 yards on the Packers. They didn’t need Jimmy G to do much, though he has shown he can when called upon considering he threw for 354 yards on the Saints in a 48-46 win late in the season.
The 49ers ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense during the regular season at 144.1 yards per game, and the matchup with Kansas City’s run D is hugely in their favor. The Chiefs rank 26th against the run, giving up 128.2 yards per game this season. The Chiefs are even worse at 28th in allowing 4.9 yards per carry. The Ravens rushed for 203 yards on the Chiefs, which is the best rushing offense they have faced outside San Francisco.
So not only will the 49ers be able to run at will against the Chiefs, their defensive strength also matches up perfectly with Kansas City’s offensive strength. The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 169.2 yards per game. They are also 1st in yards per attempt allowed at 5.9 per attempt. Their secondary is tremendous, but a big part of that is their pass rush up front with the best front 4 in the NFL in Bosa, Ford, Thomas & Armstead.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Wrong team favored here. Bet the 49ers in Super Bowl 54.
Top 10 Favorite Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54
Jimmy G has 62 rushing yards on 46 attempts this season. He’s only averaging 3.9 rushing yards per game. And I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be kneeling on the ball to end the game.
#9 - Will Raheem Mostert score a TD (Yes -130)
Mostert has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games overall. Tevin Coleman dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and is very questionable for the Super Bowl. Coleman gets a lot of goal line touches, which will now go to Mostert.
#8 - Dee Ford OVER 0.5 Sacks (-110)
Ford has at least one sack in seven of his 10 games played this season. He should be extra motivated to get after his former team and former QB in Mahomes.
#7 - Jimmy G UNDER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-150)
Jimmy G averages 27.9 pass attempts per game in his 18 games played this season. He has averaged just 13.5 attempts in two playoff games. Kyle Shanahan will continue trying to protect him as much as possible. I expect the 49ers to continue their run-heavy game plan because the Chiefs are terrible against the run.
#6 - 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw UNDER 5.5 Tackles (-110)
Greenlaw was a beast when Kwon Alexander wasn’t on the field this season. He even had the game-saving tackle at the goal line against the Seahawks in Week 17 that earned the 49ers the No. 1 seed. That play might be the biggest reason the 49ers made the Super Bowl. But in Weeks 1-9 when Alexander was on the field with him, Greenlaw didn’t once record more than 4 tackles. Alexander didn’t return until the playoffs, and Greenlaw has averaged 5 tackles per game in two playoff games
#5 - Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush UNDER 14.5 Yards (-125)
I’ve got some Mahomes rushing stats coming up that I’ll save for a future prop bet. But basically Mahomes’ rushing props are inflated due to a big outburst with 53 rushing yards including a crazy 27-yard TD run against the Titans last game. UNDER 14.5 yards for his longest carry here, but there’s another prop I like more that I’ll get to. (Check #2)
#4 - Will Jimmy G Complete his First Pass (Yes, -220)
We have to lay a little juice here but it’s worth it. Kyle Shanahan always likes to get Jimmy G an easy completion to start the game. He has made 26 starts under Shanahan. He has 21 completions on his first 26 attempts in those 26 games. That’s an 81% completion percentage. Basically four out of every five games he completes his first pass, so that justifies laying the -220.
#3 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 305.5 Passing Yards (+100)
Again, I believe Mahomes props in general to be inflated because he is the biggest star in this game. And the numbers bear it out, too. Mahomes has thrown for fewer than 300 yards in six of his last eight games. He is averaging just 252.2 PYPG in his last eight games. And the 49ers have the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 169.2 passing yards per game.
#2 - Patrick Mahomes UNDER 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
As stated before, Mahomes rushing props inflated due to his last game against TItans. The Titans and Texans both play a lot of man-to-man defense, so Mahomes was able to use his legs more. The 49ers play almost exclusively zone defense. That means defenders have their eyes in the backfield and can come up and stop the run a lot easier than teams who are in man-to-man with their back turned to the QB. SF did allow the 3rd-most QB rushing yards this season. But they also faced Russell Wilson twice, Kyler Murray twice & Lamar Jackson. Mahomes has 35 career games under his belt. He has only topped 28 rushing yards 7 times in those 35 games. That’s a 20% success rate if the over/under were only 28.5 yards. But it’s 32.5, and I believe there’s a ton of value with the UNDER.
#1 - 49ers 1st Quarter +0.5 (-155)
This prop means that if the 49ers are tied or winning at the end of the first quarter, you win your bet. There’s obviously a very good chance it’s tied, so laying only -155 I think is worth the price. The 49ers were 4th in the NFL with a +2.6 PPG differential in the 1st quarter this season, so they are fast starters. The Chiefs have actually been outscored in the 1st quarter on the season, so they are not fast starters. And we’ve seen that in the playoffs. They trailed the Texans 24-0 and the Titans 17-7 before rallying in both games.
|01-19-20||Packers v. 49ers -7||Top||20-37||Win||100||149 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco -7
I’ve been riding the San Francisco 49ers all season after picking up on the fact that they are the best team in the NFL. No team has put up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they have, and the numbers haven’t lied. They are 14-3 this season with all three losses coming on the final play of the game. That’s how close they are to being 17-0.
The reason I say the 49ers are the best team in the NFL is because they are the only team that is Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense. The 49ers were 4th in the regular season in total offense at 381.1 yards per game while also scoring 29.9 points per game, which ranked 2nd in the NFL. The 49ers were 2nd in the NFL in total defense during the regular season, giving up 281.8 yards per game and only 19.4 points per game.
The 49ers have been an immovable object when Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander have been on the field at the same time defensively. Opposing quarterbacks had a QBR of 3 during the regular season in this situation. And the 49ers returned Ford, Alexander and also Jaquisky Tartt last week from injuries. That trio played a big role in limiting the Vikings to just 10 points, 7 first downs and 147 total yards. They are back to being the best defense in the NFL when healthy now, which is a scary proposition for the Packers.
After all, the 49ers already showed what they could do against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers when their defense was healthy in a 37-8 home win earlier this season. They held the Packers to just 8 points and 198 total yards. They held Rodgers to just 3.2 yards per attempt passing as he went 20-of-33 for 104 yards. No team has shut down Rodgers like the 49ers did in that game.
Both teams are 14-3, but there’s a huge difference between them statistically. The 49ers outgained their opponents by nearly 100 yards per game during the regular season. The Packers were 18th in total offense at 345.5 yards per game and 18th in total defense at 352.6 yards per game. They were actually outgained by 7.1 yards per game during the regular season, which is the sign of a below .500 team rather than one that is 14-3. They were simply fortunate in close games all season as they went a ridiculous 9-1 in one-score games. Their luck runs out this week as this game won’t be close.
I expect the 49ers to shut down the Packers, and I also expect Jimmy G and the 49ers rushing attack to do whatever they want against this Packers' defense. The Packers are in trouble defensively because they can’t stop the run. They ranked 24th in the NFL in giving up 4.7 rushing yards per carry in the regular season. The 49ers had the 2nd-best rushing attack in the league at 144.1 yards per game. Green Bay has also allowed touchdowns in the red zone on 83% of opponents’ opportunities the last three weeks. Seattle scored all three times it got into the red zone last week.
The 49ers are 14-3 but nine of those wins have come by 9 points or more, so they have hard no problem getting margin this season. They are outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game at home this year. The Packers have been outgained by 34.1 yards per game on the road this season and are averaging just 21.4 points and 305.1 yards per game on the highway. They won’t be able to keep up with the 49ers, who are better across the board on both sides of the football.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The fraudulent Packers will be exposed by the best team in the NFL for a second time this season. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-19-20||Titans v. Chiefs -7||24-35||Win||100||88 h 34 m||Show|
15* Titans/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -7
I’ve been riding the Tennessee Titans since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They’ve made me a lot of money down the stretch, including in each of their first two playoff games with upset wins over the Patriots and Ravens. It pains me to go against them now, but I have to do it because I see this game playing out totally differently. The Chiefs are going to roll in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL when healthy and it’s not really even close. That showed last week when they erased a 24-0 deficit in one half and took a 28-24 lead by halftime against the Texans. They went on to win 51-31 as double-digit favorites. Now they are only laying 7 points here to Tennessee compared to the 10 they were laying against Houston. So I think there’s some value here.
Tennessee because the first team in NFL history to get outgained by 230-plus yards and win a playoff game last week. They gave up 530 yards to the Ravens and only gained 300 last week, yet still managed to win 28-12. That is a complete fluke. Baltimore lsat the turnover battle 3-0 and was stopped on 4th down four times. That’s essentially seven turnovers. It’s one of the most misleading finals in the history of the NFL.
Speaking of misleading, the Titans also beat the Chiefs 35-32 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having any business winning that game either. The Chiefs had a 530 to 371 yard edge and a 28-19 edge in first downs in that game. And it was the first game back for Patrick Mahomes from injury. If the Chiefs approach anywhere near 530 yards again, they are going to win in a blowout.
Derrick Henry is a beast and certainly a concern. But I have a good feeling the Chiefs are going to be leading the whole way in this game and make Henry a non-factor. This game is going to come down to whether or not Ryan Tannehill can match Mahomes score for score. And while I’ve praised Tannehill a lot this season and think he’s underrated, not even he can match Mahomes score for score. Deshaun Watson couldn’t do it last week, and Tannehill won’t be able to do it this week.
The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 10 points per game. The tough spot for the Titans won’t allow them to hang around, either. They will be playing their 4th straight road game. The last five teams to be playing their 4th straight road game in the NFL have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS. And they just played two physical wars against the Patriots and Ravens the last two weeks, which will have taken a lot out of them.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - off two consecutive road wins, winning between 60% & 75% of their games on the season are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas City) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games with a total of 49.5 or higher. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
Note: I also recommend doing a teaser to get both the 49ers and Chiefs down to -1 or better. A 6.5-point teaser at -130 odds should do the trick. And also make this teaser a bigger bet than your individual bets on these two games. It's one of my favorite teasers of the entire season!
|01-12-20||Seahawks v. Packers -4||Top||23-28||Win||100||77 h 43 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -4
The Seahawks improved to 11-2 in one score games with their fortunate 17-9 win over the Eagles last week. They knocked out Carson Wentz in the first quarter and got the luxury of facing 40-year-old Josh McCown the rest of the way. And they still had to hang on for dear life.
The Seahawks’ luck runs out this week. They have played in two straight physical wars against the 49ers and Eagles and it will take its toll on them this week. Meanwhile, the Packers are rested and ready to go after earning a first-round bye.
Injuries are really taking their toll on the Seahawks now. They could be without three starting offensive linemen. They are likely to be without both tackle Duane Brown and guard Mike Iupati. And tackle George Fant suffered a groin injury that has him questionable. Both backup RB’s Lynch and Homer averaged just 1.0 yards per carry against the Eagles last week as the offense managed just 17 points.
Russell Wilson is going to be running for his life against one of the best tandem of pass rushers in the NFL in the Smith Brothers. And this is a Packers defense that has really improved down the stretch, giving up 20 points or fewer in five straight games and an average of just 14.2 points per game during this stretch. Rodgers finally has a defense to support him, which is a dangerous combination.
This is a very poor Seattle defense that ranked 26th in total defense in allowing 381.6 yards per game during the regular season and 29th in yards per play (6.0) allowed. The injuries are mounting on defense too with CB Flowers, DT Jefferson, LB Kendricks, DE Ansah and DE Clowney all on the injury report. Aaron Rodgers is going to have his way with this defense.
Speaking of Rodgers, this will be the eighth time he has faced Russell Wilson. The home team is 7-0 SU and winning by 8 points per game in the seven previous matchups between Rodgers and Wilson. And it’s going to be about 20 degrees on Sunday after it snows Friday and Saturday in Green Bay. Lambeau Field is arguably the best home-field advantage in the NFL and easily worth 4 points in my opinion. Factor in the rest advantage for Green Bay and all the injuries for the fraudulent Seahawks, and it’s easy to see why I like the Packers only laying 4 points.
The Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close road win by 3 points or less. Green Bay is 11-2 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. The Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off five or more consecutive wins. The Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS loss. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. Roll with the Packers Sunday.
|01-11-20||Titans +10 v. Ravens||28-12||Win||100||31 h 60 m||Show|
15* Titans/Ravens AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +10
The Tennessee Titans have made me a lot of money in the second half of the season. A big reason why is because they are a completely different team since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. Their season-long stats lie, and oddsmakers are setting their numbers more based on their season-long stats than the team they are with Tannehill.
Tannehill completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per completion in the regular season. Their threat of a downfield passing attack has opened things up greatly for Derrick Henry. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in eight straight games while averaging a whopping 189.6 rushing yards per game during this eight-game stretch.
The Titans put up 33.4 points per game over their final seven games. Because they can run the ball, they were 1st in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency this season. And while the Ravens have been decent against the run, they do give up 4.4 yards per carry. Plus the Ravens faced the 5th-easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks this season.
Stopping Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing attack is key to stopping them. The Titans are 12th in the NFL against the run in yards per game allowed, but they are an even better 7th in yards per carry (4.0) allowed. They have probably the 2nd-fasted front 7 of any team in the NFL behind the 49ers, who held the Ravens to 20 points earlier this season. Having speed in the front 7 is the key to being able to defend Lamar Jackson.
I like that the Titans are battle-tested. They needed to win in Week 17 to make the playoffs and handled their business in a 35-14 win at Tennessee. And last week they went on the road and beat New England 20-13 as 4.5-point dogs. They are in full-blown playoff mode and gaining confidence with each win.
The Ravens haven’t played a meaningful game since Week 16. And we saw them struggle in the playoffs last year against the Chargers. They’ve played a bunch of cupcakes down the stretch and the last good teams they played were the Bills and 49ers, and they only won those games by 7 and 3 points, respectively. Tennessee has enough film on Jackson and company now to be able to slow them down.
Since both teams like to run the ball so much, this game will be slowed to a snail’s pace. That favors the double-digit underdog here. I think the Titans will continue to have success with Henry on the ground and that will help shorten this game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff home games. Take the Titans Saturday.
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers -6.5||Top||10-27||Win||100||121 h 4 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -6.5
The 49ers needed the bye week as much as anyone. They were among the first teams to have a bye week this year as theirs came clear back in Week 4. This was a tired, banged up team down the stretch and they showed a lot of heart in getting that all-important No. 1 seed.
It’s going to pay off this week as the 49ers are as healthy as they have been in months. They are expected to get back some key players on defense. LB Kwon Alexander, S Jaquiski Tartt and DE Dee Ford are all back now after missing Week 17. When Alexander, Ford and Nick Bosa have been on the field at the same time this season, opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 3, which is unheard of.
Conversely, the spot couldn’t be worse for the Minnesota Vikings. They are coming off their huge upset win over the Saints in overtime on Sunday. Now they have to come back and play the early game Saturday on a short week. Not to mention, they have to travel from New Orleans back to Minnesota and then all the way out to the West Coast to Santa Clara.
Injuries are taking their toll on the Vikings, too. Both Stephon Diggs (Illness) and Adam Thielen (ankle) didn’t practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. With all this travel, the Vikings aren’t going to get much practice time at all as it is. And they could be without DT Linval Joseph (knee) who got banged up against the Saints. They are without their top corner in Mackensie Alexander and starting safety Jayron Kearse (toe) is questionable. And after a huge workload returning from injury last week, RB Dalvin Cook won’t be 100% on this short week.
The 49ers weren’t as good defensively down the stretch due to those injuries, but they should get back to being the top defense in the league now. They ranked 2nd in total defense during the regular season giving up just 281.8 yards per game. The 49ers were dominant offensively down the stretch as Jimmy G had a 109.3 QBR since they traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They finished 4th in total offense averaging 381.1 yards per game. They were the only team in the NFL to finish Top 5 in offense and defense this season and I strongly believe they are the best team left in the playoffs now that they are a lot healthier.
Getting margin hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers as they are outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game on the season and 12.8 points per game at home. The Vikings are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. It’s just too much to ask for the Vikings to go on the road two weeks in a row and beat the two best teams in the NFC in the Saints and 49ers. They will fall flat here against a superior 49ers team in the much better spot. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +2.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||42 h 2 m||Show|
25* Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
I’ve been fading the Seahawks with a lot of success here down the stretch. I spotted that they were frauds a long time ago, and that is still my belief. I’m going to fade them on the road here against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card round as well for many of the same reasons.
The Seahawks are 10-2 in one-score games this season, which is unsustainable. Russell Wilson doesn’t have the ‘clutch gene’ like everyone thinks. He was 31-33 in one-score games coming into this season in his career. The Seahawks have a +7 point differential for the entire season, which is closer to an 8-8 team than one that is 11-5. They are complete frauds.
The real Seahawks have shown over the last four weeks. They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 16 to the Rams as 1-point road dogs, only beat the hapless Panthers 30-24 as 6.5-point road favorites, were upset by the Cardinals 13-27 as 9.5-point home favorites and lost to the 49ers 21-26 at home as 3.5-point dogs. That loss to the 49ers was devastating as it meant they’d have to go on the road in the wild card instead of hosting a game. And they came up just inches short. It’s tough to bounce back from a loss like that.
The Eagles found themselves needing to win their final four games just to make the playoffs. That’s exactly what they did despite all their injuries. They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS with their final two games being the most impressive. They beat the Cowboys 17-9 at home and gained 431 yards while allowing just 311 yards, outgaining them by 120 yards. And last week they handled their business in a 34-17 win at the Giants with 400 total yards.
Despite all the injuries, this offense is flowing behind some great play from Carson Wentz with four straight games of 400-plus yards of offense. They are far from broken, and they are finding different ways to move the football and score points behind the genius of head coach Doug Pederson. And they will get Miles Sanders back this week, and could get both Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson back.
A big reason the Seahawks have struggled down the stretch is injuries, too. They have injuries all over their defense at all three levels. And their offense lost their top two running backs, which prompted them to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street. They certainly miss Josh Gordon as well since he was suspended.
It’s also easy to see the Seahawks are a fraudulent team when you look at their numbers. They are just 26th in total defense, giving up 381.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season. They are actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards per play on the season. And their running game has taken a big hit here down the stretch with all these injuries to their running backs and along the offensive line.
The Seahawks won’t be able to run on the Eagles, either. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 90.1 yards per game rushing. And the Eagles deserved to win their first meeting with the Seahawks, losing 9-17 at home despite committing five turnovers. I have a hard time believing they are going to come anywhere close to committing five turnovers again, and thus the result will be in their favor this time around.
The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six January games. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games. Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints -7.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||38 h 27 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Saints NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans -7.5
The New Orleans Saints are on a mission this season to make amends for coming up just short of the Super Bowl. Granted, the refs robbed them of any chance to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC Championship Game, but they fell short none the less. I’ve never seen a team more motivated than this New Orleans Saints will be to start the playoffs this week.
The Saints have been playing like Super Bowl contenders in the second half of the season. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those six wins coming by 8 points or more. They are outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points per game in their last seven games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to the 49ers.
Drew Brees is playing some of the best football of his career. This potent Saints offense has put up 26-plus points in seven straight games and an average of 36.3 points per game during this stretch. They should feast on a weak Minnesota defense that is giving up 65.6% completions and 234 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings have injuries at cornerback that are going to make it very difficult for them to slow down Brees and company.
I’m also concerned about this Minnesota offense. It’s well documented how poorly Kirk Cousins has played in big games, and that has continued this season. He lost to the Packers twice, the Chiefs and the Seahawks. Cousins went 1-4 against playoff teams this year with his only win coming at home against the Eagles.
A lot has been made of the Vikings getting Dalvin Cook back from injury this week, but he’s far from 100%. And a lot has also been made of the Vikings getting Adam Thielen back recently from a hamstring injury, but he’s also a shell of his former self. Thielen has just four receptions for 52 yards in his last four healthy games. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Cousins to match Brees score for score, and I just don’t think he’s capable.
The Saints also want to avenge the ‘Minnesota Miracle’ when the Vikings scored on the final play of the game to beat them in the 2017-18 season, 29-24. It’s another reason why I’ve never seen a team more motivated than these Saints.
Wild card favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS since 2005. The Vikings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Saints Sunday.
Note: My favorite bet for Sunday is an Eagles +8.5/Saints -1.5 6-Point Teaser at -120 juice. Instead of betting both these games separately, I’d recommend betting this teaser instead. Plays will get graded on the +2.5/-7.5 lines, but make sure to have your biggest bet on this teaser if you decide to play both plays individually.
|01-04-20||Titans +5 v. Patriots||20-13||Win||100||22 h 47 m||Show|
15* Titans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +5
It’s obvious there’s something seriously wrong with the New England Patriots in 2019-20 compared to in years’ past. They just lost to the Miami Dolphins as 17-point home favorites with a first-round bye on the line. That never used to happen. And now I don’t expect them to make easy work of the Tennessee Titans, a much better team than Miami.
It’s a Titans team I’ve been riding a lot down the stretch because they are better than they get credit for. The Titans have gone 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over. Tannehill has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a whopping 9 yards per attempt.
Having Tannehill as a threat passing has really opened up the running game for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing this year. The Titans have rushed for at least 149 yards in seven straight games while averaging a whopping 188 rushing yards per game during this seven-game stretch. The Titans are also averaging 33.4 points per game in their last seven. This offense is a juggernaut, but the betting public is failing to realize it.
New England has a great defense, but it has come against the worst schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. They have played the 30th-ranked schedule in the league overall. And their defense was lit up for 27 points and 389 total yards by the Miami Dolphins last week. I won’t argue that the Patriots don’t still have a solid defense, but the problem is on the other side of the ball.
Tom Brady just hasn’t been himself and certainly doesn’t have the weapons he needs to be successful this year. The offensive line isn’t getting the push they need either as the Patriots have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in half their games. The Patriots are averaging just 5.2 yards per play, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Titans are averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 4th in the NFL.
Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival. The Titans made easy work of the Texans last week, while the Patriots fought tooth and nail to try and beat the Dolphins. I think that will make the Titans the fresher team this week. There’s value here on the road underdog. Take the Titans Saturday.
|12-29-19||49ers -2.5 v. Seahawks||Top||26-21||Win||100||168 h 53 m||Show|
20* 49ers/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -2.5
The Seattle Seahawks are frauds. I’ve been saying it all season. I faded them last week with an easy outright win on the Cardinals +9.5, and I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons. They are the most fortunate 11-4 team I’ve ever seen.
Indeed, the Seahawks are 11-4 despite having just a +12 point differential on the season. They have gone 10-1 in one-score games this year. People say it’s just Russell Wilson being clutch, but Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games prior to 2019.
The 49ers are 12-3 and every bit as good as their record. They have a +164 point differential on the season, which is 152 points better than the Seahawks. All three of their losses came on the final play of the game.
Yes, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in their first meeting, but it comes with an asterisk. The 49ers were without their most important player in George Kittle, who is worth more to the spread than any other non-QB in the NFL. And Emmanuel Sanders got hurt early in that game. Jimmy G didn’t have any weapons left. And the Seahawks still needed a FG in overtime to beat the 49ers. Now it’s revenge time for San Francisco.
The 49ers are the much healthier team in the rematch. The Seahawks have injury problems everywhere. They are missing a handful of guys on defense, they could be without two starting offensive linemen, and will for sure be without LT Duane Brown. They just recently lost WR Josh Gordon to suspension, taking away one of Wilson’s top targets.
The Seahawks needed a win last week against the Cardinals to keep alive a chance at a first-round bye. But they lost 13-27 at home as 9.5-point favorites. They were outgained by 188 yards by the Cardinals and managed just 224 total yards themselves. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and it showed last week, especially since the Cardinals kept scoring even after Kyler Murray went down with injury.
The Seahawks rank 26th in total defense giving up 380.5 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The 49ers rank 2nd in total defense, giving up 277.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. They are allowing over 100 yards less per game than the Seahawks, and that’s the difference in this game. The 49ers also have the better offensive numbers this year, scoring 30.2 points per game and gaining 379.9 yards per game while ranking 2nd in scoring and 6th in total offense.
The 49ers also get an extra day of rest after beating the Rams on Saturday. The Seahawks don’t have the same home-field advantage they used to. They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season with losses to the Ravens, Saints and Cardinals outright. Their four home wins came by 7, 6, 1 and 1 point and only one of those was against a playoff team in the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|12-29-19||Titans +1 v. Texans||Top||35-14||Win||100||166 h 13 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans +1
The Tennessee Titans need a win and they’re in the playoffs. We know they will be max motivated here. The same cannot be said for the Houston Texans, which is why I have made this my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR for the 2019 season.
The Texans have nothing to play for. Yes, they could get the No. 3 seed instead of the No. 4 if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers and they win this game. But the Chiefs are 9-point home favorites against the Chargers. Kansas City plays at 1:00 EST, while Houston plays at 4:25 EST. So the Texans will know their fate before they kick off, and that fate is going to be that they are locked into the No. 4 seed.
After coming out Monday and saying he would play his starters, head coach Bill O’Brien has recanted as I expected, which is why I locked this line in early. I expected him to rest his starters, and that’s precisely what he is going to do. That’s why this line has moved roughly 7 points toward the Titans since the opening line.
It looks like all the best players for the Texans will sit. That includes QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins, T Laremy Tunsil, WR Kenny Stills, WR Will Fuller, DE J.J. Watt and there will likely be more. The product the Texans put on the field won’t be good at all, and I expect the Titans to win this game easily by a TD or more and likely by double-digits.
Tennessee actually sat some players last week, including RB Derrick Henry, against the Saints last week. That game actually didn’t matter to them. They knew that this Week 17 game was going to be their only chance of making the playoffs because it would give them the tiebreaker with the Steelers. They already have the tiebreaker over the Raiders.
The Titans still nearly beat the Saints and probably should have last week if not for a fumble when they were going in to take the lead in the closing minutes. But now getting Henry back is huge for this team. The Titans have been a juggernaut running the football down the stretch. They have rushed for 169.4 yards per game in their last seven games.
Ryan Tannehill has played at an MVP level since taking over for Marcus Mariota. He is completing 70.7% of his passes for 2,544 yards with a 20-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt. The Titans will be able to name their number against this Texans defense.
Houston really should be 0-3 in their last three games overall. They were beaten by 14 by the Broncos, won by 3 over the Titans and won by 3 over the Bucs. But they lost the stats in all three games. The Broncos hung 38 points on them, the Titans outgained them by 42 yards and the Bucs outgained them by 206 yards despite not having their top two receivers.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - off two consecutive road wins, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tennessee) - after playing a home game against an opponent that’s off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Titans Sunday.
Note: I'm expecting the Texans to rest their starters since they clinched the division last week. Bet this line as soon as it's available at your book. It's a 25* up to Titans -6.5, a 20* at anything worse.
|12-29-19||Colts -4 v. Jaguars||20-38||Loss||-110||45 h 3 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indianapolis Colts -4
The Indianapolis Colts sit at 7-8 on the season. They are clearly motivated to win in Week 17 to get to .500 on the season, because 8-8 sounds much better than 7-9. And they showed that last week by crushing the Carolina Panthers 38-6 at home.
Now the Colts go on the road to face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has all but quit. The Jaguars are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits. They are failing to cover the spread by an average of 14 points per game during this stretch.
The Colts beat the Jaguars 33-13 at home in their first meeting this season, and they should be able to go on the road and beat a hapless Jaguars team by more than 4 points. The Jaguars know that they are likely lose all of their coaches in the offseason and it’s just a team in turmoil right now, which explains their disastrous finish.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - after playing a home game against an opponent that is off a two-game road trip are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC South opponents. Indianapolis is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games as a road favorite. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and lost their last two home games by 35 to the Chargers and by 17 to the Bucs. Take the Colts Sunday.
|12-29-19||Jets +4.5 v. Bills||Top||13-6||Win||100||163 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Jets +4.5
The Buffalo Bills have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17. They will be resting starters, and they should not be favored over the New York Jets as a result. They are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will face the No. 4 seed, which will likely be the Houston Texans.
The New York Jets are playing well down the stretch. They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall. They just upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10 as 3-point home underdogs last week. And they are looking to cap off a 6-2 run to finish the 2019 season and build momentum heading into next year.
The Bills will just run, run and run some more to try and get this game over with. Well, the Jets have the answer for Buffalo’s running game. Indeed, the Jets rank 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 87.9 rushing yards per game. They are also 1st in the NFL in allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.
Plays on road teams (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The underdog is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Bet the Jets Sunday.
Note: I expect the Bills to rest their starters with nothing to play for in Week 17. Bet this line as soon as it comes out at your book. It's a 20* up to Jets -3, a 15* at anything worse.
|12-29-19||Browns v. Bengals +3||23-33||Win||100||42 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER On Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Cincinnati Bengals locked up the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft with their loss to the Dolphins last week. A win won’t hurt them now as they are in line to draft Joe Burrow. They will be motivated to beat their division and in-state rival in the Cleveland Browns Sunday.
The Bengals showed last week that they are still trying. They erased a 16-point deficit in the final minute of that Miami game with two touchdowns and two 2-point conversions to force overtime. It definitely would have been the worst beat all-time if the Dolphins had not gone on to win in overtime.
The Browns are a dumpster fire. They lost two weeks ago as favorites at Arizona by a final of 24-38. They gave up 38 points and 445 total yards to the Cardinals. And last week they lost by 16 at home to the Ravens. They managed just 241 total yards and gave up 481 yards, getting outgained by 240 yards by the Ravens. They won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Bengals in Week 17 as they were the Ravens last week.
The Bengals want revenge from a 19-27 loss at Cleveland earlier this month. Cincinnati really deserved to win that game. They outgained the Browns 451 to 333, or by 118 total yards. But they just couldn’t convert in the red zone, either kicking FG’s or coming up short on 4th downs. And keep in mind Andy Dalton did not play in that game, but he is playing now and wants to show teams that he can still be a starter in this league.
Plays on any team (Cincinnati) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 100-53 (65.4%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons. The Browns are 4-15 ATS off two or more consecutive losses over the last three years. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|12-23-19||Packers v. Vikings -5||Top||23-10||Loss||-105||24 h 47 m||Show|
20* Packers/Vikings ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5
The Minnesota Vikings want to stay alive in the NFC North title race. To do so, they will have to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. They will be highly motivated because of it, plus they want revenge from a 16-21 loss at Green Bay in their first meeting this season.
That was certainly a misleading final as the Vikings deserved to win the game. They outgained the Packers 421 to 335 total yards but committed four turnovers. One was a pick in the end zone when they were going in for the potential game-winning score in the 4th quarter. They haven’t forgotten, and now it’s their turn for payback.
The Packers are one of the most fraudulent 11-3 teams I’ve ever seen. They have only outscored their opponents by a total of 47 points on the season. To compare, Minnesota has outscored its opponents by 119 points on the year. Now that’s the sign of an elite team. Green Bay has simply been fortunate in close games, going 7-1 in one-score games this season.
Minnesota is 10-4, but three of its losses have come by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double-digits, so they are every bit as good as their record, if not better. And it means they know how to get margin when they need it, so I’m not concerned at all about laying the 5 points here.
Another way to see how fraudulent the Packers are is to compare their yardage differential, not just point differential. The Packers are actually getting outgained by 34.5 yards per game on the season. They rank 21st in total offense and 22nd in total defense. I am pretty certain I’ve never seen an 11-3 team that ranks worse than 20th in both categories. The Vikings are 10th in total offense and 14th in total defense, outgaining teams by 33.7 yards per game.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Green Bay) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 40-16 (71.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on favorites (Minnesota) - after having won three of their last four games when playing a hot team that’s won eight or more of their last 10 games are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Green Bay is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Packers are 3-11 ATS off one or more consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.
Mike Zimmer is 22-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Minnesota. The Vikings are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Minnesota. Bet the Vikings Monday.
|12-22-19||Chiefs -6 v. Bears||Top||26-3||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bears NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -6
The Kansas City Chiefs have been playing defense like the ’85 Bears here down the stretch. That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL when you consider the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy. The Chiefs are only giving up 11.3 points per game over their last four games.
Now Kansas City goes up against an awful Chicago offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in averaging just 298.4 yards per game. The Bears are also scoring just 18.3 points per game, and I just don’t see how they are going to keep up with the Chiefs in this one.
And that’s even if the Bears actually show up. I could see them packing it in this week after suffering their dream-crushing loss to the division rival Packers last week. That loss eliminated them from playoff contention, and I usually love fading teams the week after they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by at least 7 points, so they should have no problem beating this hapless Bears team by a TD or more. They went on the road and beat both the Chargers by 7 and the Patriots by 7. And they also beat the Raiders by 31 and the Broncos by 20 at home. They are hitting on all cylinders right now.
The Bears have some injuries that will prevent them from being competitive also. They are without LB Danny Trevethan, DE Akiem Hicks, OT Bobbie Massie and WR Taylor Gabriel. And it’s a pretty easy choice here to back Patrick Mahomes over Mitch Trubisky, who just called out his coach last week and there’s certainly some divisiveness in their locker room right now.
The Chiefs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Kansas City is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games off an ATS win. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Take the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-22-19||Cardinals +9.5 v. Seahawks||Top||27-13||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +9.5
The Seattle Seahawks are the most fraudulent 11-3 team I’ve ever seen. They have only outscored opponents by a total of 26 points on the season. They are 10-1 in games decide by one score, so they have been lucky in close games. Only once have they won a game by more than 8 points all season.
A lot of people will tell you it’s because Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’. But Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career prior to this season. Getting Arizona catching more than one score here is a tremendous value that we’re going to capitalize on Sunday.
The Seahawks have a ton of injuries right now that are holding them back, too. On defense, they’ll be without DE Jadeveon Clowney, NT Al Woods and S Quandre Diggs. They have key injuries on all three levels of their defense. Offensively, they will be without LT Duane Brown, and they just lost star WR Josh Gordon to a suspension.
The Seahawks can afford to lose this game and they’d still win the division if they beat the 49ers next week. That makes this a huge lookahead spot for them. Everything will be on the line next week, not this week. And we’ve seen the Seahawks throw up some duds all season at home. They only beat the Bengals by 1, lost to the Saints, lost to the Ravens, only beat the Rams by 1, and needed OT to beat the Bucs. They haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points yet this season.
I can’t give the Seahawks much respect because they don’t deserve it with how poor their defense is. Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 378.3 yards per game. Arizona just hung 38 points on Cleveland last week and will be able to move the ball and score points on this Seattle D. The back door will always be open if we need it.
The Cardinals have done their best work on the road this season, where they are 4-1-1 ATS. And that one push was when they led San Francisco the entire way until the final seconds and gave up a lateral return TD that turned a lead into a 10-point loss as 10-point dogs. They only lost by 6 at Baltimore, beat the Bengals and Giants outright, and lost by 3 at Tampa. Their only blowout road loss came to the Saints.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Cardinals are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Seattle. Arizona is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games with a total of 49.5 or higher.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a team that wins 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-22-19||Saints v. Titans +3||38-28||Loss||-102||4 h 17 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Tennessee Titans +3
The Tennessee Titans would be out of the playoffs if their season ended today. They are tied with the Steelers for the 6th seed, but currently lose out on the tiebreaker. They are in must-win mode this week, and have been since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. And they’ve delivered.
The Titans are 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Last week’s loss to Houston was misleading. A receiver dropped a Tannehill pass on the goal line that was intercepted and returned 90 yards to set up an easy score for the Texans. It was the difference in the game in a 24-21 win by Houston.
Tannehill is completing 71.5% of his passes with a 17-to-6 TD/INT ratio and a whopping 9 yards per attempt. The Titans having the threat of the pass with Tannehill and his underrated targets has opened things up for the running game here in the second half of the season. They have averaged 174 rushing yards per game in their last six games.
The Saints will be working on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football. It’s definitely a potential letdown spot after Drew Brees set the all-time passing TD record and the highest completion percentage every in a single game. The Colts simply did not show up after their deflating loss to the Bucs the previous week that pretty much knocked them out of contention.
The Titans will be able to exploit some injuries on the Saints’ defense that the Colts could not. The Saints lost top pass rusher Marcus Davenport and top run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries two weeks ago against the 49ers. They have injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary of note as well.
New Orleans is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games coming in. The Saints are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
Plays on home teams off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 28-8 ATS since 1983. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|12-21-19||Rams v. 49ers -6.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-108||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* Rams/49ers NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco -6.5
I was on the Atlanta Falcons against the 49ers last week as my 25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR. I recognized it was a huge flat spot for them after playing the Packers, Ravens & Saints in three consecutive weeks, and with games against the division rival Rams and Seahawks on deck. And the 49ers lost outright.
I think we will look back and see that was a loss they needed to get humbled. They could afford that loss, it didn’t hurt them at all. Now they can’t afford another loss. It’s simple for the 49ers now. Win out and they’ll be the #1 seed in the NFC. They are in control of their own destiny, and I know they’ll put their best foot forward today because of it, and it will be good enough to beat the Rams by 7 points or more.
The Rams suffered a devastating 21-44 loss to the Cowboys last week. Now they have about a 3% chance to make the playoffs. They need to win out and have the Vikings lose out to make the playoffs. It’s simply not going to happen, they know it, I know it, we all know it. So I don’t expect a very good effort from the Rams here after they just had their dreams crushed with that loss to Dallas.
It wasn’t just any loss, either. The Cowboys throttled them 44-21. And the Rams got two garbage touchdowns late in the 4th quarter to make the score appear better than it really was. Their defense was shredded for 475 total yards, and their offense only managed 289 total yards with the majority of that coming on their final two drives of the game.
Jared Goff was playing awful before he hit his thumb on a Cowboys’ helmet. He became check down Charlie after that. I think his thumb is a real problem that’s not being talked about much at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to get some key players back from injury this week, including CB Richard Sherman.
San Francisco beat the Rams 20-7 on the road as 3-point dogs in their first meeting this season. That game was even more of a blowout than the final score showed. The 49ers held the Rams to just 10 first downs and 165 total yards. They sacked Goff four times and pressured him 22 more times while limiting him to 56 passing yards on 24 attempts, an average of just 2.3 yards per attempt.
When the Rams have stepped up in class this season, they have gotten throttled. They had that 20-7 loss to the 49ers, that 21-44 loss to the Cowboys, and don’t forget they lost 6-45 to Baltimore a few weeks back. When Goff is pressured, he folds, and we’ve seen it time and time again. The Rams simply can’t hang with the top teams in the NFL, and they won’t hang with the 49ers this week, either.
The Rams are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs. Los Angeles is 22-46 ATS in its last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday games. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the 49ers Saturday.
|12-16-19||Colts +10 v. Saints||Top||7-34||Loss||-120||50 h 38 m||Show|
20* Colts/Saints ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Indianapolis +10
It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Indianapolis Colts this week. They have lost five of their last six games overall. They lost the last three weeks despite holding a second half lead in all three games. That’s because they have been outscored 31-0 in the fourth quarter in their losses to the Titans, Texans & Bucs.
Four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. The only one they lost by more than that was their misleading 17-31 loss to Tennessee. Indianapolis was attempting a FG that would have given them the lead with only five minutes left, but it was blocked and returned for a TD. That 10-point swing was the difference in the game. The Colts actually outgained the Titans 391 to 292 for the game.
The Saints are coming off the type of loss that could beat them twice. They lost a 46-48 shootout to the 49ers at home on a last-second field goal. They went for two instead of kicking the extra point early in the game, and it probably cost them the game. I believe this is now a huge flat spot for the Saints, who have basically given home-field advantage to the 49ers now.
New Orleans has some real big injuries that are getting overlooked on defense right now. It’s a big reason the 49ers scored 48 points and gained 516 total yards on them last week. They lost pass rusher Marcus Davenport and run stuffer Sheldon Rankins to injuries last week against the 49ers. They were playing without LB’s AJ Klein and Kiko Alonso last week and both are questionable again this week. This once-stout New Orleans defense has started to show a ton of holes in recent weeks.
New Orleans is fortunate to be 10-3 this season. The Saints are 7-1 in one-possession games this season. Seven of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. I think there’s tremendous value with the Colts catching double-digits because of it.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Indianapolis) - off a close loss by 3 points or less, in the last four weeks of the regular season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983.
The Colts are 10-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game over the last three years. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after having won six or seven of its last eight games. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games. Bet the Colts Monday.
|12-15-19||Falcons +11.5 v. 49ers||Top||29-22||Win||100||27 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +11.5
This is a massive letdown spot for the 49ers. They have played three straight games against three of the best teams in the NFL. They beat the Packers at home before losing to the Ravens on a last-second field goal on the road. Then they got a last-second field goal of their own to beat the Saints on the road last week.
That was a 48-46 shootout and it had to take a lot out of them. Remember, they stayed in Florida last week so they’ve been gone from their families for two weeks. I usually like fading teams when they come back home off long road trips because there are a lot of distractions they must deal with back home. And it’s a sandwich spot for them with two huge division games coming up against the Rams and Seahawks the next two weeks.
The 49ers suffered some key injuries in that win over the Saints, too. They lost center Weston Richburg for the season. They also lost DE Dee Ford and CB Richard Sherman to hamstring injuries. They have a handful of other guys questionable this week, including do-it-all FB Kyle Juszcyk. They are in about as poor a shape injury-wise as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot for a team that has been banged up all year.
The Atlanta Falcons continue to battle week in and week out. They have won three of their last five games and have been competitive in four of them. They beat the Saints on the road and took the Saints to the wire at home. They blew out the Panthers on the road and at home. They have outgained four of their last five opponents.
The Falcons got back Julio Jones and Austin Hooper last week and promptly put up 40 points and 461 total yards on the Panthers in a 40-20 win. They will relish this opportunity to face the top team in the NFC and former coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers can afford a loss because basically their season is going to come down to their Week 17 game against the Seahawks. I just think this is a really bad spot for the 49ers, especially asking them to lay double-digits here.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after having won six or seven of their last eight games, a top team that wins 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 49ers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-15-19||Rams -111 v. Cowboys||21-44||Loss||-111||22 h 49 m||Show|
15* Rams/Cowboys NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK
The Dallas Cowboys just seem content to play bad football knowing that none of these games matter for them. The only game that matters is next week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The winner of that game will likely win the NFC East. The Cowboys have lost three straight games coming in, including upset losses to the Bills and Bears the last two weeks.
The Los Angeles Rams simply need this game more right now. The Rams are 8-5 and one game behind the Vikings for the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC. They really need to win out if they want to make the playoffs. They’re playing like a hungry team, too.
The Rams beat Arizona 34-7 on the road two weeks ago and racked up 549 total yards while limiting the Cardinals to just 198 yards. And last week they won 28-12 at home over the Seahawks. They gained 455 total yards on the Seahawks and held them to just 308 yards. They also held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown as their only TD came on a pick-6.
Jared Goff and this Rams offense is now hitting on all cylinders now that he has his full compliment of weapons. And they are shutting teams down defensively. I like the matchup for the Rams because stopping the run is the key to stopping the Cowboys. The Rams rank 4th in the NFL in giving up just 3.8 yards per carry.
The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record. The Rams are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games off two straight wins over division opponents. Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games overall. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record.
I know the Rams will show up this week, and I’m convinced the Cowboys are looking ahead to their game against the Eagles next week from what I’ve seen from them. We’ll back the more motivated team here this afternoon. Take the Rams Sunday.
|12-15-19||Browns v. Cardinals +3||24-38||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona Cardinals +3
The Cleveland Browns should not be favored on the road here against the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns have a laundry list of injuries on their offensive and defensive lines that will make it very difficult for them to beat the Cardinals this week.
Cleveland is coming off a misleading 27-19 home win over the awful Cincinnati Bengals. They deserved to lose that game, but the Bengals gave it to them. Cincinnati racked up 453 total yards and held Cleveland to just 323 yards in the game. But the Bengals either turned it over on downs or settled for field goals too many times in the red zone. To give up 453 yards to the Bengals is a bad sign for this Cleveland defense.
Arizona hung tough at home against Pittsburgh last week in a 17-23 loss. The difference in that game was a special teams touchdown for the Steelers. And after facing three great defenses in a row in the 49ers, Rams and Steelers, Kyler Murray and company are ready to bust out here against this soft Cleveland defense this week.
Arizona is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 home games off a home loss. The Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record. Wrong team favored here. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-15-19||Texans v. Titans -3||Top||24-21||Loss||-102||18 h 25 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee Titans -3
The Tennessee Titans are playing as well as anyone in the NFL since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. They are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. This run has moved them into a first place tie with the Houston Texans in the AFC South. Now they have their chance to pull ahead as they host the Texans today.
If the Titans were going to have a letdown, it would have been last week. It didn’t happen. The Titans handled their business by crushing the Raiders 42-21 on the road. That game was every bit as big of a blowout as the final score showed. The Titans racked up 552 total yards on the Raiders as their offense continues to thrive.
Tannehill is completing 73.4% of his passes for 1,993 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio and a 118.5 QBR this season. Derrick Henry has really gotten going on the ground as the Titans have rushed for at least 121 yards in five straight games and an average of 176 rushing yards per game during this stretch.
Now the Titans should continue to have success against a soft Houston defense that simply hasn’t been very good without JJ Watt. The Texans gave up 448 total yards to the Patriots two weeks ago and 38 points and 391 yards to a bad Broncos offense last week. They give up 23.8 points per game on the season and are worst than that of late. The Titans only allow 19.6 points per game on the year and clearly have the better defense in this matchup.
Tennessee is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Houston is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons. The Titans are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more over the last two years. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|12-15-19||Broncos +10 v. Chiefs||3-23||Loss||-108||18 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Broncos +10
I always like fading teams off an upset win over the New England Patriots. That’s the case for the Chiefs, who were aided by the refs in their 23-16 win at New England last week. Now the Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and this is a massive letdown spot for them. They got their revenge on the Patriots from their playoff loss last year, and now they’ll relax.
We saw the same thing happen to the Houston Texans last week. Off their upset win over the Patriots, they promptly lost outright as nearly double-digit favorites at home to the Denver Broncos. Now the Broncos get to play the role of spoiler again and they come in here with some momentum.
Indeed, the Broncos throttled the Texans 38-24. It was an even bigger blowout than that as the Broncos led by as many as 28 points. They racked up 391 total yards on the Texans, and rookie QB Drew Lock was brilliant. He went 22-of-27 passing for 309 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Now Lock should continue to have success against his soft Kansas City defense.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Chiefs have consistency been overvalued at home here of late. They have lost three of their last five home games outright. The Broncos are 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The Broncos only have three double-digit losses this season. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|12-12-19||Jets +17 v. Ravens||Top||21-42||Loss||-115||8 h 54 m||Show|
20* Jets/Ravens AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +17
The Baltimore Ravens are the most public team in the NFL right now due to their nine-game winning streak and their 11-2 record, which is the best in the AFC. This line has gotten out of control as a result, and there’s clearly value on the Jets catching more than two touchdowns tonight.
The Ravens are coming off two very physical games against San Francisco and Buffalo. They needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers at home, and they were fortunate to cover by getting a red zone stand in the closing seconds of a 24-17 win over the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week.
I think this is a letdown spot for the Ravens now. Not to mention they will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Matt Skura and T Ronnie Stanley. Leading receiver Mark Andrews is battling a knee injury. QB Lamar Jackson just showed up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, so I think the Ravens will be careful with him. And without Jackson at 100% and the whole playbook available, it will be tough for the Ravens to cover this massive spread.
I like the fact that the Ravens know they can lose this game and still be in 1st place in the AFC. Knowing they have that in their hip pocket will make them not be as motivated as they have been up to this point to put themselves in this enviable position. Meanwhile, the Jets will be treating this game like their Super Bowl with the chance to go toe-to-toe with the top team in the AFC.
It’s not like the Jets are the worst team in the NFL, which is what this line basically indicates. The Jets are actually 4-1 SU in their last five games overall. I know it hasn’t come against the greatest competition, but this team is still battling hard and trying to win every game. Sam Darnold has found a connection with Robby Anderson on offense, and the defense continues playing at a very high level.
The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping the run, and that makes this an excellent matchup for the Jets. New York ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game. More importantly, the Jets rank 1st in the league in giving up just 3.0 yards per carry. They have far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL when you look at the numbers as a whole.
Baltimore is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. teams that commit 60-plus penalty yards per game over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|12-09-19||Giants +10 v. Eagles||Top||17-23||Win||100||47 h 39 m||Show|
20* Giants/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +10
The New York Giants would love nothing more than to wreck the Philadelphia Eagles’ season. The Eagles are doing plenty of that on their own, and there’s no way they should be double-digit favorites here against a division rival.
The Eagles are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost to the Patriots 10-17 at home and to the Seahawks 9-17 at home. And last week was the ultimate embarrassment, giving up 37 points in a loss to the Dolphins as 10-point road favorites. There are problems on the Eagles that aren’t fixable, and especially in their secondary.
The Giants should be motivated here with the return of Eli Manning at quarterback. They want to send their veteran out the right way, and Manning wants to prove that he can still get it done. Playing this soft Eagles secondary will certainly help matters. Plus, the Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate from injury this week to give Manning another weapon.
The Giants are coming off a misleading 13-31 home loss to the Packers. Daniel Jones gave the game away with interceptions as the Giants lost the turnover battle 3-0. But the Giants only gave up 322 total yards to the Packers and actually outshined them by 13 yards in the game.
New York has always been a better road team than home team. The Giants are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field. The Eagles haven’t beaten the Giants by more than 5 points in any of the last three meetings in Philadelphia. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games. Bet the Giants Monday.
|12-08-19||Seahawks v. Rams +1||Top||12-28||Win||100||49 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Rams +1
The Seattle Seahawks have the worst point differential (+36) of any 10-2 or better team in the history of the NFL. That’s because they have gone 9-1 in one-score games this year. They have been extremely fortunate in close games and are nowhere near as good as their record as a result. This is more like a 7-5 team at best.
A lot of Seahawks backers will say that Russell Wilson has the ‘clutch gene’ so they should win more close games. That’s simply not true. In fact, coming into this season, Wilson was just 31-33 in one-score games in his career. The fact of the matter is the Seahawks are a fraudulent, fortunate team that is now overvalued due to their record.
The Seahawks were 1.5-point home favorites in their first meeting with the Rams this season. Now they are 1-point road favorites. If you adjust for home-field advantage, which is usually close to a 6-point swing, the Seahawks should be 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch. I think there’s a ton of value getting the Rams as home underdogs tonight.
Keep in mind the Rams deserved to beat the Seahawks in that first meeting. They lost 29-30 only after Greg Zurlein missed a 43-yard field goal in the final seconds that would have won the game for the Rams. Now, Los Angeles wants revenge on the Seahawks, and their season is essentially on the line tonight. The Seahawks can afford to lose this game knowing that they have a later meeting with the 49ers that will likely decide the division champ.
The Rams are as healthy as they’ve been all season as Jared Goff now has his full compliment of weapons on offense. That showed last week as the Rams went into Arizona and won 34-7 against a Cardinals team off their bye week. The Rams racked up 549 total yards in the win while holding the Cardinals to just 198 total yards, outgaining them by 351 yards. Goff went 32-of-43 passing for 424 yards with two touchdowns in the win, and Todd Gurley carried 19 times for 95 yards and a score to prove he is just fine health-wise.
This game means everything to Rams because they have tough road games at Dallas and San Francisco coming up the next two weeks. If they want to make the playoffs, they have to win this game. And they should be fresh after blowing out the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a short week here after playing in a grueling, physical 37-30 home win against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday.
The Seahawks are frauds because they rank 24th in total defense in allowing 368.9 yards per game this season. And Goff and the Rams always diced up this defense. They have scored 29 or more points in four straight games against the Seahawks while averaging 35 points per game in those four meetings. And stopping the run is the key to stopping the Seahawks. The Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 3.7 yards per carry.
Plays against road underdogs or PK (Seattle) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when playing on six or fewer days’ rest this season. Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 NFC games. Sean McVay is 6-0 ATS after a dominant performance with 34-plus minutes time of possession and 24-plus first downs last game as the coach of the Rams. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|12-08-19||Titans v. Raiders +3||42-21||Loss||-107||19 h 50 m||Show|
15* Titans/Raiders AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oakland +3
This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation. We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Raiders coming off back-to-back blowout road losses to the Jets and Chiefs by 31 points each. And we’ll ’sell high’ on the Titans, who have won five of their last six games overall coming in.
This Titans run has featured four home wins and only one road win. They lost 20-30 at Carolina and they were fortunate to win last week at Indianapolis. It was a 17-17 game with five minutes left and the Colts kicking a FG that was blocked and returned for a TD. That 10-point swing was the difference in the game. The Titans were outgunned by 99 yards in that game as they gave up 391 yards to the Colts and only managed 292 yards themselves.
The Raiders had a no-show at the Jets two weeks ago knowing they had a huge game on deck with the Chiefs. They promptly lost 9-40 at Kansas City. But that was a hugely misleading final as the Raiders actually outgained the Chiefs 332 to 259 or by 73 total yards. It’s hard to score 40 points on just 259 total yards, yet the Chiefs managed to do it.
Now the Raiders are back home where they have been at their best this season. They are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss coming to those aforementioned Chiefs. Their season is on the line here as they are chasing both the Titans and the Steelers for the final wild card spot in the AFC. It’s a must-win to say the least, and I expect the Raiders to get the job done.
This is definitely a sandwich spot for the Titans. They are coming off that huge road win over the division rival Colts that moved them within one game of first place in the AFC South. Now they have a home game against Houston on deck next week. In fact, they play the Texans two more times this season, so they are in control of their own destiny no matter what happens this week. I don’t expect them to show up fully focused, while I know we’ll get Oakland’s best effort this week.
Plays on any team (Oakland) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Titans are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS In their last 10 games off a loss. Oakland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. Roll with the Raiders Sunday.
|12-08-19||Ravens v. Bills +6||Top||24-17||Loss||-110||95 h 42 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +6
This is a great spot for the Buffalo Bills with extra rest having played last Thursday. That gives Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott extra time to prepare to stop Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense. The 49ers top-ranked defense held the Ravens to just 20 points last week. And now this 3rd-ranked Buffalo defense will have some success as well.
Baltimore is coming off a huge last-second win over the 49ers. And the betting bandwagon on this Ravens team right now could not be more full. The betting public just continues to hammer this team. I think there’s a ton of value in getting the Bills as 6-point home underdogs. This line should be closer to Baltimore -3, so we are getting at least 3 points of value based off of public perception.
The Bills have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, especially late in the year. And they are 9-3 and only one game out of first place in the AFC East right now. Keep in mind they dominated the Patriots everywhere but the scoreboard in their first meeting, otherwise they would be in 1st place.
Josh Allen was brilliant in leading the Bills to a 26-15 win at Dallas in a game they also dominated from start to finish on Thursday. That game was never in doubt as the Bills controlled the whole game as 7-point road underdogs. Yet nobody wants to believe in them. I was on the 49ers last week against the Ravens, and I’m fading them again this week as it’s still time to ’sell high’ on them.
The Bills are really starting to run the football well now that they have a healthy one-two punch of Gore and Singletary in the backfield, plus Allen is an underrated runner and always has been since he entered the league. The Bills have rushed for 178.7 yards per game in their last three games. Well, the Ravens just gave up 174 rushing yards on 29 carries to the 49ers last week, so they can be run on. The Ravens have allowed 122-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.
Plays on home games (Buffalo) - off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two top teams that win 75% or more of their games are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983. Plays against road teams (Baltimore) - off eight or more consecutive wins in December games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983. Take the Bills Sunday.
|12-08-19||Dolphins +5 v. Jets||21-22||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +5
It’s safe to say the Jets won’t be making a run to the playoffs now despite what Sam Darnold said five weeks ago. The Jets reeled off three straight wins, but then promptly lost 6-22 on the road to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. That was the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals.
It doesn’t get any lower than that, and I just don’t think the Jets will be playing with much passion the rest of the year now. Not to mention, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Jets. They have a whopping 32 players on the injury report with 21 of them out and another eight of them questionable.
The Miami Dolphins continue to shows up week in and week out behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. They have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with three outright upsets. That includes their 37-31 win as 10-point home dogs to the Eagles last week. They diced up that Philadelphia secondary for 351 passing yards as Fitz formed a great chemistry with DeVante Parker, who had seven receptions for 159 yards.
The Jets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against bad teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game. New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a favorite. The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings after upsetting the Jets 26-18 as 3.5-point home dogs in their first meeting this season. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.