|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-02-21||Cowboys -5 v. Saints||27-17||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5
The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four. They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills.
This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo. I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well.
Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation. They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week. They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem.
Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season. New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more. The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-29-21||Seahawks v. Washington Football Team -105||Top||15-17||Win||100||69 h 7 m||Show|
20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK
The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs. They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs. They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team.
But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks. In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards.
Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going. The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games. They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy.
The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention. Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests. They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game. To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season.
Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season. Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games. Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach. We have two teams headed in opposite directions here. Bet Washington Monday.
|11-28-21||Vikings v. 49ers -3||Top||26-34||Win||100||97 h 10 m||Show|
20* Vikings/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco -3
The 49ers had a team meeting after their terrible loss to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals. They came back and throttled the Rams 31-10 at home while holding them to just 278 total yards. Then they made that win count by going on the road and dominating the Jaguars 30-10 and holding them to just 200 total yards. Now the 49ers are starting to play like the team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.
But we continue getting them at a discount because of their 5-5 record. Their numbers are elite. They average 360 yards per game on offense and have been even better when Jimmy G and George Kittle are healthy, which both are now. And they have one of the best defenses in the NFL at 318 yards per game allowed. They are outgaining opponents by over 40 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.
Minnesota is also 5-5 but doesn't have as good of numbers. The Vikings only outgain opponents by 8 yards per game and actually get outgained by 0.2 yards per play on the season. And I think it's a terrible spot for the Vikings. They are coming off a huge last-second win over their biggest rivals in the Green Bay Packers. And that's a banged-up Packers team at that and they took advantage. Now they have to travel clear out to the West Coast. There's no way they'll be as motivated for this game as they were for the Packers, and I expect them to fall flat here.
Minnesota is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Vikings are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games following a win by 3 points or less. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team winning all four games by 8 points or more. I think we see the 49ers continue playing their best football of the season and win this game by more than a field goal over the Vikings. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|11-28-21||Chargers v. Broncos +3||13-28||Win||100||41 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Broncos +3
Death, taxes and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog. Bridgewater is 25-9 ATS as an underdog in his career as a starting quarterback. And I think we are getting tremendous value on the Broncos this week as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Broncos sit at 5-5 and ready to try and make a run at the playoffs here down the stretch. They come in off their bye week, so they will be fresh and have had two weeks to prepare for Justin Herbert and company. It should be a great atmosphere for the Broncos, and I fully expect them to win this game outright thanks to their rest and preparation advantage.
The Chargers will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and all five games went down to the wire decided by 7 points or less. That includes their crazy 41-37 win over the Steelers last week in which they blew a big lead and needed some late heroics from Justin Herbert to get the victory. I expect them to still be feeling the after-effects of all these close games and especially that tiring shootout last week on Sunday Night Football.
The key matchup here is that the Broncos will be able to run the football at will on the Chargers and control the game with time off possession. They are a solid running team averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and they'll be up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers allow 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.
Denver is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games following a bye week. Los Angeles is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the Broncos Sunday.
|11-28-21||Panthers v. Dolphins +2.5||Top||10-33||Win||100||94 h 45 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins +2.5
The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.
The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers. They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. And last week they beat the Jets 24-17.
Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score. He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.
Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward, especially with three straight home games against suspect competition coming up with a chance to get back to .500. This team believes right now, and that is a big thing as we head down the stretch run of the season.
The Panthers continue to be overvalued from their blowout win at Arizona two weeks ago in Cam Newton's return. Newton got the nod last week and did not play well, losing 21-27 at home to Washington as 3-point favorites. Now they are favored against on the road here, and I just don't trust Newton to be able to beat Miami's blitz-happy defense with his arm. We saw what they did to Lamar Jackson two weeks ago. The formula will be the same here against Newton and the Panthers.
Carolina is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a road favorite. The Panthers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Dolphins are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-28-21||Bucs v. Colts +3||Top||38-31||Loss||-103||38 h 53 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Colts Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indianapolis +3
The Indianapolis Colts are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming in overtime to Baltimore and Tennessee. Carson Wentz has not thrown an interception in eight of his last nine games. And the Colts have a great defense and running game. They are definitely one of the biggest sleepers in the NFL right now.
That showed last week in their 41-15 win at Buffalo behind five touchdowns from arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor. They could have a letdown, but I don't think so considering they still have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs as they sit at just 6-5 on the season. And they have the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs coming to town, so they are almost assuredly not going to let up.
I just don't think Tampa Bay can be trusted on the road, either. The Bucs are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the road this season. Their two wins came by 2 points over the Patriots and 6 over the Eagles. They lost at the Rams by 10, were upset at New Orleans by 9 and also upset as a double-digit favorite at Washington by 10. This might be their toughest road test of the season.
Plus, the Bucs are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. They could be without their best run stuffer in defensive tackle Vita Vea, who sat out last game. They have injuries in the secondary and on offense that are concerning. And I just think they are overvalued after beating the lowly Giants Monday night.
The Colts are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as road favorites. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Indianapolis. Roll with the Colts Sunday.
|11-28-21||Eagles v. Giants +4||7-13||Win||100||38 h 53 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +4
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. But those three wins came against the Lions, Broncos and Saints. And we saw how bad the Saints looked against the Bills on Thursday as they are missing several key players, as were the Broncos when they played them.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Giants after they were waxed 30-10 by the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs on Monday Night Football. That was a pissed off Bucs team coming off two straight losses, so they caught them at a bad time.
The Giants were playing well prior to that defeat, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games. They upset the Panthers 25-3 at home, only lost by 3 to the Chiefs as 10.5-point road dogs, and upset the Raiders 23-16 at home. They had a bye after that game against Las Vegas, so they should still be fresh even though they are on a short week here after playing on Monday.
The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after losing four or five of their last six games coming in. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing record.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Philadelphia) after winning two of its last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-31 (70.2%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|11-25-21||Bills -6 v. Saints||Top||31-6||Win||100||37 h 41 m||Show|
20* Bills/Saints NBC Thursday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -6
The Buffalo Bills have responded well after bad losses this season. They want to get the taste out of their mouth from that 41-15 loss to the Colts in which they were -4 in turnovers. The good news is they don't have to wait long to do it here against the New Orleans Saints.
The Bills have four losses this season. They are 3-0 ATS following a loss. After losing to Pittsburgh in the opener, they beat Miami 35-0 on the road the next week. After losing at Tennessee, they won 26-11 at home against Miami the next week. And after losing at Jacksonville, they won 45-17 at the New York Jets the next week.
The Saints continue getting respect from oddsmakers that they don't deserve with a third-string QB. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off a 40-29 loss at Philadelphia in which they gave up 242 rushing yards. They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons and gave up 332 passing yards.
Injuries are adding up for the Saints, and they just don't have a good enough offense to keep up with the Bills. And Jalen Hurts ran wild on the Saints last week. Now they face another mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, who should have a monster game against their defense as well. And the Bills are about as healthy as any team in the NFL at this point in the season.
Plays against underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last three games are 35-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by more than 14 points. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Bills Thursday.
|11-25-21||Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51||36-33||Loss||-110||33 h 51 m||Show|
15* Raiders/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 51
The Raiders are broken offensively since losing Harry Ruggs to injury. They have scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games now and it has come against some pretty weak defenses in the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. They won't do much better here against the Cowboys with an offense that only really features Darren Waller as a decent weapon.
The Cowboys have been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four. Injuries are really piling up for them on offense as well. Amari Cooper is out, and CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are questionable. But the Cowboys have an improved defense this season that gives up just 21.4 points per game. They have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or fewer, including the 19 points allowed to the Chiefs last week.
The Raiders are also improved defensively this season. They give up just 352.7 yards per game. They have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to get after Dak Prescott. They held Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's high-powered offense to just 129 passing yards on 20-of-29 attempts. Three weeks ago they held the Giants to 96 passing yards. They are giving up just 6.1 yards per attempt this season.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last four games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Cowboys last nine November games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Raiders last 10 November games. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-22-21||Giants +11.5 v. Bucs||Top||10-30||Loss||-116||68 h 18 m||Show|
20* Giants/Bucs ESPN No-Brainer on New York +11.5
The Tampa Bay Bucs continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers after winning the Super Bowl last year. They are just 3-6 ATS this season. After losing 27-36 on the road to the Saints and Trevor Siemian, the Bucs had their bye week and many expected a big effort. Instead, they lost outright 19-29 to Washington as 10-point favorites.
Now the Bucs come back as 11.5-point home favorites over another NFC East team in the New York Giants. This despite the fact that the Bucs are missing several key players. They are missing three cornerbacks, and they lost their run stuffer in Vita Vea last week with an injury. He is crucial to their front seven and is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Offensively, they'll still be without Rob Gronkowki, and Antonio Brown is questionable after sitting last week.
Don't look now but the Giants are quietly playing some great football. They have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat Carolina 25-3 as 3-point dogs and Las Vegas 23-16 as 3-point dogs. Their lone loss, they nearly upset the Chiefs in a 17-20 defeat as 10.5-point road dogs. And now they are coming off their bye week and will be even healthier than they were last time out against the Raiders.
The Giants are a pretty easy team to figure out. Always bet them as a road underdogs. Indeed, the Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Giants are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tampa Bay. Bruce Arians is 0-6 ATS vs. NFC East opponents as the coach of Tampa Bay. Bet the Giants Monday.
|11-21-21||Texans +10.5 v. Titans||Top||22-13||Win||100||94 h 7 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +10.5
This is the spot the Tennessee Titans have their letdown. They have now won six straight games including five in a row against playoff teams from last year. I question how much they have left in the tank after their wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams and Saints the last six weeks.
This is a tired team right now too as the Titans haven't had a bye week yet and won't get one until Week 13. The injuries are piling up. They have 23 players on injured reserve. They are already without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, leaving basically just Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown as their best offensive players by far. LB's Bud Dupree, David Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans are all questionable, as is CB Greg Mabin.
The Titans were very fortunate to beat the Rams and Saints the last two weeks with their lack of offense. They beat the Rams despite just 194 total yards. They managed just 264 total yards against the Saints and had a fluky roughing the passer penalty go their way on Tannehill that wiped out an INT in the end zone and led to 7 points, which was the difference in their 23-21 victory. It also helped that the Saints missed two extra points. And the Saints should have won that game with a third-string QB in Trevor Siemian and without their best player in Alvin Kamara.
The Texans will be highly motivated for their first victory since Week 1. They are coming off their bye week and facing the division leader in the Titans, so they will give a big effort. It's clear they are still trying to win games or they wouldn't have brought back QB Tyrod Taylor. He was rusty in his first start back against the Dolphins, but he should get back to his old self off a bye. And his old self is a covering machine and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability as a dual-threat.
Both meetings last season were decided by 3 and 6 points. And in both games, the Texans had a chance to win late but fumbled going into the end zone. They have not forgotten, and they would love nothing more than to get their revenge here. I think they have an excellent chance to win outright, but at the very least they will cover this 10.5-point spread with ease.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (Houston) after six or more consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 13 are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS since 1983. This is the ultimate 'buy low, sell high' spot. We'll 'buy low' on the Texans off eight straight losses. And we'll 'sell high' on the Titans off six straight wins. It's that simple folks as we are getting max line value here. Bet the Texans Sunday.
|11-21-21||Colts +7.5 v. Bills||Top||41-15||Win||100||94 h 4 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7.5
The Buffalo Bills have beaten up on the bad teams they have faced. Their six wins have come against Houston, Miami (twice), Washington, Kansas City and the New York Jets. Five of those six wins came against teams that are 3-6 or worse. The lone decent win was against the Chiefs, but they are way down this season too. The Bills also lost to the Jaguars, Steelers and Titans. They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL according to Sagain.
The Colts have played a much tougher schedule. And they are playing their best football of the season after a slow start. The Colts have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their two losses both came in overtime to the Ravens and Titans in games in which they blew late leads. So they haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 6 points.
The Colts are as healthy as they have been all season. They have a Top 10 defense to contain Josh Allen and this offense. And the Colts have been serviceable with Carson Wentz at quarterback and the running of Jonathan Taylor at running back. There could be some bad weather in Buffalo Sunday, so that favors the team that can run the football in the Colts. The Bills have struggled to run the ball again this season.
One sneaky factor here is that the Colts want revenge from a 24-27 road loss as nearly identical 7-point underdogs to the Bills in the playoffs last year. They actually deserved to win that game outright. They had 472 total yards against this Buffalo defense and outgained them by 75 yards. They rushed for 163 yards on this Buffalo defense.
The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average at least 350 yards per game. The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.
I just think this line is too big of an overreaction to Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets last week in which the Jets committed five turnovers. They had just lost outright to the Jaguars as a 14.5-point favorite the week prior, so it's amazing how the betting markets shift their opinions in just one week. The Colts are not the type of team that gets blown out, they are too solid everywhere and will keep this game within one score. Take the Colts Sunday.
|11-21-21||Dolphins -3 v. Jets||24-17||Win||100||93 h 34 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -3
You definitely need to jump on the Dolphins as soon as possible. This line isn't going to hold at -3 for much longer. Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Jets. He has been a disaster and it's amazing he is even in the league. They will now be on their 4th different starting quarterback.
The offense will be a mess with him at the helm. And it just shows the Jets don't care about winning games by inserting Flacco instead of Mike White or Josh Johnson. They don't want there to be a QB controversy when Zach Wilson comes back.
New York's defense is already a mess, allowing a total of 175 points in their last 4 games for an average of 43.4 points per game. This is far and away the worst defense in the NFL. The Dolphins are in line for one of their best offensive performances of the season this week.
Tua came back in the 2nd half against the Ravens and led them to a 22-10 victory. His finger looked absolutely fine. He went 8-of-13 passing for 153 yards and averaged 12.2 yards per attempt. He also scored a rushing touchdown. And now the Dolphins get extra prep time after playing the Ravens last Thursday, which is basically a mine-bye week.
This Miami defense has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is getting back to being the dominant unit that led this team last year. They held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 10 points and 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers. That came a week after holding the Texans to just 9 points and 272 yards while forcing 4 more turnovers. And that was a Texans team with Tyrod Taylor at QB, which is a big upgrade over Davis Mills.
Miami won both meetings last year in blowout fashion, 24-0 at home and 20-3 on the road. The Dolphins improved to 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just a hot mess right now from head coach Robert Saleh, to the leaky defense, to the washed up Joe Flacco at quarterback. There's just nothing to like about them right now.
Miami has all the 'buy on' signs you are looking for late in the season. They are undervalued due to their 3-7 record. But they have won two straight and have a great chance of getting back to .500 at 7-7 with the upcoming schedule. After facing the Jets this week, they get three straight home games against the Panthers, Giants and Jets in games they should be favored in. Everything is still in front of them. Roll with the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-18-21||Patriots v. Falcons +7||Top||25-0||Loss||-115||29 h 21 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Falcons Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta +7
It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are coming off the 45-7 victory over Cleveland last week resulting in the second-biggest blowout in the NFL. I always like fading teams coming off the big blowout like that because they are always overvalued the next week.
Couple that with the fact that the Falcons are coming off the biggest blowout loss, losing 43-3 to the Cowboys last week. And we are getting max line value based off of one week's results. A team is never as good or bad as they played last week. And the Falcons should not be catching 7 points at home to the Patriots Thursday night.
These short weeks always tend to favor the home teams. And you know the Falcons will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, while the Patriots will be feeling fat and happy coming into this one. Keep in mind Atlanta just went on the road and won outright at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog the week prior to losing to Dallas. And Dallas was just down 30-0 to Denver the previous week before blowout out Atlanta.
This is just how the NFL works. You won't to fade last week's results because that's where you get optimal line value. The lookahead line for this game was Patriots -4. So we are getting a full 3 points of value here with the Patriots now at -7 based off last week's results alone.
Each of Atlanta's previous six games before Dallas were decided by 7 points or fewer, and they hadn't lost any of them by more than 6 points. I think this game is decided by one score either way. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|11-15-21||Rams v. 49ers +4||Top||10-31||Win||100||127 h 12 m||Show|
25* MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +4
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the San Francisco 49ers. The entire world, including myself, were on them last week. I had them +2.5 and they closed -5.5 against the Cardinals, an 8-point adjustment. But they fell flat on their faces and turned it over three times in a lackluster 17-31 loss.
Now the 49ers will have be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week. They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. Especially with all the headlines the Rams are making of late with all the moves they are making to try and win a Super Bowl.
Speaking of falling flat on their faces, the Rams lost 16-28 as a 7-point home favorite to the Tennessee Titans last week. They didn't have Von Miller for that game and may not have him this game, either. And too much is being made of the trade for Odell Beckham Jr, who has been a cancer everywhere he has gone. The bigger news is losing Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice on Friday. He has been a reliable receiver for this team for years under Sean McVay. Odell is questionable to play Monday as well and won't be that effective even if he does.
The 49ers are simply way better than their 3-5 record would indicate. They are outgaining teams by 27.5 yards per game despite not having Jimmy G for a couple games. They outgain their opponents by 0.8 yards per play which is one of the better margins in the NFL, averaging 6.3 per play on offense and giving up 5.5 per play on defense. Jimmy G and George Kittle are both back healthy, and he has plenty of weapons now to get the ball to in the underrated Deebo Samuel plus Brandon Ayuk.
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers simply own McVay and the Rams. The 49ers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings winning outright as underdogs all three times they were in the dog role. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 Monday games. Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning five or six of their last seven games coming in. Bet the 49ers Monday.
|11-14-21||Panthers +10.5 v. Cardinals||Top||34-10||Win||100||99 h 2 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They have the best record in the NFL at 8-1. And they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. That includes their shocking upset of the 49ers.
The world, including myself, was on the 49ers in that game and got great line value. The 49ers got bet up to 5.5-point favorites. They failed to show up and had some critical turnovers. And the Cardinals rallied behind their backups without Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green. Colt McCoy had a career game.
I always like fading teams after a big performance like that when they were missing key players because it's tough to repeat. And it's uncertain whether Murray, Hopkins or Green will be back this week as they are all questionable. Either way, I don't think you are going to find better than 10.5 on the Panthers later on in the week.
This line indicated that Murray is playing at a minimum. But I don't think it matters who is under center, the Panthers will cover. Their season is on the line here at 4-5 with a chance to get back to .500. And as bad as Sam Darnold has been, I think PJ Walker might actually be an upgrade at quarterback.
The team has lost faith in Darnold and the Panthers should rally around Walker just as the Cardinals did with McCoy last week. Christian McCaffrey finally returned to the lineup last week and should be even better this week as he is another week healthier.
Carolina has an elite defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. The Panthers rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense giving up just 293.1 yards per game. They also rank 2nd in giving up just 5.0 yards per play. They will lean on this defense and McCaffrey to keep it close with Walker playing a mistake-free game as well and a game plan that fits his dual-threat ability, an added element the Cardinals are going to have to prepare for that they wouldn't have had to with Darnold. The Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in giving up nearly 5 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for the Panthers.
This just feels like the ultimate flat spot for the Cardinals. They just played a stretch of six games against the Rams, 49ers (twice), Browns, Packers and Texans. They are coming off that huge divisional win over the 49ers with their backs against the wall. Now they have a road game at Seattle on deck next week. They won't be able to get up emotionally for this Panthers team that has lost five of their last six. Teams simply cannot be max motivated every week.
Arizona is 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Carolina is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after going under the total in its previous game. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites. Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|11-14-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +10||19-29||Win||100||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +10
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Football Team this week. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and now find themselves catching double-digits for the first time all season. They will return from their bye highly motivated for a victory and to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs.
Washington has lost four in a row but deserved to win a couple of those games at the very least. They didn't deserve to beat Kansas City, but they actually outgained the other three teams they lost to. They outgained the Packers by 126 yards, the Broncos by 69 yards and the Saints by 4 yards.
Tampa Bay has been suspect on the road this season. The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in road games with upset losses to the Rams and Saints. They only beat the Eagles by 6 and the Patriots by 2, failing to cover as bigger favorites. Now they are being asked to go on the road and beat Washington by double-digits, which is asking too much.
That's especially the case with all the players the Bucs are missing on offense. They will be without both Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown this week. Chris Godwin is also questionable. So this bye week didn't really get the Bucs any healthier than they were going into it.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Tampa Bay) - that is outgaining opponents by 0.75 or more yards per play, after gaining 400 or more total yards on average in their last three games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Washington wants revenge from a 31-23 playoff loss to the Bucs last season. Ron Rivera is 27-10 ATS following a road loss in all games as a head coach. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. The underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Washington Sunday.
|11-14-21||Browns +2.5 v. Patriots||7-45||Loss||-102||6 h 44 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Browns +2.5
The Browns were as healthy as they have been in a long time last week. It showed when they beat the Bengals 41-16 on the road in a dominant effort. Their secondary is finally healthy, and the offense showed what it could do without Odell Beckham Jr., continuing to play better without him as a distraction. I think their solid play carries over into this week against the Patriots.
I believe the Browns are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs. And it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Patriots after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. Mac Jones gets a lot of love but it's not like he's been that great this season with a 10-to-7 TD/INT ratio.
The Patriots need to be able to run the ball to be successful. But they'll be up against an elite Cleveland front seven that can stop the run. The Browns rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 84.8 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. New England will be without top running back Damian Harris for this one as well, putting more pressure on Jones to make plays.
Like I said, this Browns secondary is healthy now and made life miserable on Joe Burrow last week. I think this Cleveland defense will shut down the Patriots as well. The Browns average 160 rushing yards per game and have proven they can still run it successfully even without Nick Chubb.
The Patriots give up 109 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that normally average 98 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry. I don't think they are that good against the run, they just haven't played many great running teams. This will be their toughest test yet trying to stop the run.
Home-field advantage has been non-existent for the Patriots this season. They are actually 1-4 SU at home with their only win coming against the lowly New York Jets. The Browns are 3-1 ATS on the road with their only non-cover coming in a huge comeback win by the Chargers, 47-42.
New England is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7.5 or more yards per attempt. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Roll with the Browns Sunday.
|11-11-21||Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins||10-22||Loss||-100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Dolphins AFC ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -7.5
The Baltimore Ravens have won six of their last seven games overall and should be bigger favorites over the lowly Miami Dolphins tonight. The Ravens always seem to get better as the season goes on. And they are coming off a misleading win over the Vikings last week.
The Ravens outgained the Vikings by 182 yards last week and should have won by more. But they gave up a kickoff return TD which is the only reason it was even close and the only reason they did not cover. They were also -2 in turnovers. That misleading final I think actually has them undervalued this week.
Baltimore should still be fresh even coming off an OT game because they had a bye week prior to the Minnesota game. They face a Miami Dolphins team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week, making this short week even tougher on them. I don't expect them to handle it well, especially with QB Tua Tagovailoa doubtful for this one.
The Dolphins are just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS this season. They beat the worst team in the NFL in the Texans 17-9 last week despite just 262 total yards with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Their other win was a misleading 17-16 win at New England in the opener in which they should have lost while getting outgained by 134 yards. The Dolphins are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game on the season.
Baltimore is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. The Ravens are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings with seven wins by 14 points or more. Take the Ravens Thursday.
|11-08-21||Bears v. Steelers -6.5||27-29||Loss||-105||150 h 58 m||Show|
15* Bears/Steelers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -6.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers have turned around their season the only way they know how. There's a reason they have never finished worse than 8-8 under Mike Tomlin because he gets the most out of his players even when things look grim. And they definitely looked grim after a 1-3 start.
But the Steelers have since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS. They beat the Broncos 27-19 at home, the Seahawks 23-20 at home and the Browns 15-10 on the road in upset fashion. They were coming off their bye week heading into that Cleveland game and should have won by more.
They had 370 yards against a good Browns defense and held them to 304 yards, outgaining them by 64 yards. But they had to settle for too many field goals. They should still be fresh after that bye and have one of the best looking injury reports in the NFL. And Big Ben is finding his groove now thanks in large part to a running game that has come around with 115 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games. This offense is a dangerous one when it has balance.
Now Big Ben should be able to pick apart a Chicago defense that gets shredded every week. After giving up 38 points and 408 yards to the Bucs two weeks ago in a 38-3 loss, the Bears came back last week and gave up 467 yards and 8.6 yards per play to the 49ers last week in a 33-22 loss that wasn't even as close as the final score.
This is a bad combination for the Bears having a leaky defense and a terrible offense. They managed just 324 yards and 4.8 yards per play against the 49ers. They were held to 311 yards against the Bucs, 277 to the Packers, 252 to the Raiders, 373 to the Lions and 47 to the Browns in their previous five games. Justin Fields just isn't a very good passer, and missing David Montgomery has hurt this team.
Stopping Chicago's rushing attack will be key, and the Steelers only give up 106 rushing yards per game and are proving they have one of the best defenses in the NFL yet again this year. The Steelers are primed for one of the best defensive performances of the season against a Chicago offense that ranks dead last (32nd) in averaging 4.4 yards per play on offense. The next-worst team is at 4.8 yards per play.
Chicago is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 10.8 points per game and getting outscored by 16.0 points per game. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss. Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a home loss. The Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog. Bet the Steelers Monday.
|11-07-21||Cardinals v. 49ers +2.5||Top||31-17||Loss||-100||122 h 28 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Sunday Update: I got 49ers +2.5 early in the week. I would still bet them as a 25* up to -3 even if Murray plays due to their other injuries and the situation. Lower your bet if you can only get -3.5 or worse.
The San Francisco 49ers want revenge from a 17-10 road loss at Arizona a couple weeks ago on October 10th. They deserved to win that game as they had the ball in Arizona territory the entire game even with Trey Lance at QB. They outgained the Cardinals by 34 yards and held them to just 304 yards in that game but managed just 10 points.
Now the 49ers have Jimmy G back at QB, and he is coming off his best game of the season. The 49ers beat the Bears 33-22 last week in what was an even bigger blowout than the final scored showed. The 49ers had 467 total yards and outgained the Bears by 143 yards and didn't punt once. They outgained the Bears 8.6 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play in that game.
The Cardinals are overvalued due to their 7-1 start. I successfully faded them with the Packers last week in a game Green Bay won outright despite missing several key players. Now it's the Cardinals who could be missing several key players. They are already without JJ Watt and C Rodney Hudson, and they could be without both QB Kyler Murray and WR De'Andre Hopkins, who are both questionable. If Murray were to sit the 49ers would definitely be favored. But I like them either way.
Plays on underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 59-29 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Arizona is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. It's regression time for this team that has overachieved in the first half this season. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The 49ers are outgaining opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play, which is one of the best YPP differentials in the NFL this season and shows they are better than their 3-4 record would indicate. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|11-07-21||Chargers -1 v. Eagles||27-24||Win||100||122 h 8 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers. They went into their bye week coming off a 34-6 loss to the Ravens and many expected them to come out with their hair on fire against the Patriots. Instead, they also lost to the Patriots 24-27 at home as 3.5-point favorites.
Now we are getting the Chargers at a discount. This team is much better than they have shown in their last two games. Remember, they were 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games beating the Chiefs 30-24 on the road, the Raiders 28-14 at home and the Browns 47-42 at home, and that was back when the Browns were healthier. And the Chargers should still be fresh after having their bye two weeks ago, and they are as healthy as any team in the NFL.
Conversely, it's time 'sell high' on the Philadelphia Eagles. They are coming off a 44-6 victory over the Lions last week in the biggest blowout of the week. They did so with just 350 total yards as the Lions just gave that game away. It was also a flat spot for Jared Goff and the Lions after nearly upsetting the Rams the previous week. The Eagles took advantage and looked better than they really were.
Remember, the Eagles looked awful the previous two weeks against the Bucs and Raiders. They were outgained by 186 yards by the Bucs in their misleading 22-28 loss. They were outgained by 84 yards by the Raiders in their 22-33 road loss in which they had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday the previous week. Philadelphia's three wins have come against Atlanta, Carolina and Detroit. They aren't very good, and the Chargers are the better of these two teams and we're getting them at basically a pick 'em price.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1983.
Los Angeles is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games following a loss by 3 points or less. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. NFC opponents. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Los Angeles is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|11-07-21||Vikings v. Ravens -5.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||119 h 4 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -5.5
I love the spot for the Baltimore Ravens this week. They are coming off their bye week and a terrible loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. They will come back refreshed and highly motivated for a victory out of their bye. It was definitely a more productive bye than most teams because you know they were focused off that 17-41 loss to the Bengals.
That loss to the Bengals was the aberration, not the norm. The Ravens had gone 5-0 in their previous five games with the last three victories over the Broncos, Colts and Chargers coming by a combined 50 points. Look for them to get back to their dominant ways against the Minnesota Vikings this week.
The Vikings blew a golden opportunity to get back in the playoff race with their 16-20 home loss to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys last week. The Cowboys outgained the Vikings by 141 yards behind a 300-yard passing effort from Rush. Kirk Cousins was awful as the Vikings went just 1-of-13 on 3rd down and their only play call seemed to be a screen play.
Cousins cannot stretch the field, and the Ravens play man-to-man defense mostly that is going to take away those short routes. The Ravens also have the answer for Dalvin Cook. They give up just 86 rushing yards per game as one of the top run defenses in the NFL. And Lamar Jackson and company should have a field day against this Minnesota defense that just gave up 418 yards to Rush and the Cowboys.
The Ravens are scoring 26.7 points per game and averaging 417.6 yards per game this season. They rank 4th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play on offense. They should be able to do whatever they want to on offense, especially run the football against a Vikings defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry on the season.
Baltimore is 15-3 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. They seem to get better as the season goes on under John Harbaugh. The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Ravens Sunday.
|11-04-21||Jets +10.5 v. Colts||Top||30-45||Loss||-108||53 h 3 m||Show|
20* Jets/Colts AFC Thursday No-Brainer on New York +10.5
The Indianapolis Colts can't be favored by double-digit against almost anyone. Carson Wentz cannot be trusted to make the right throws. Their best bet it to run it 40 times a game with Johnathan Tayor, but they refuse to do it.
The Colts are coming off yet another devastating overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans in a game that would have gotten them back in the AFC South race. Now they are tired on a short week here and having to face a New York Jets team that is undervalued and coming in with confidence and feeling good about themselves.
The Jets beat the Bengals 34-31 last week as 11.5-point underdogs and should have won by even more. They racked up 511 total yards against the Bengals and held them to just 318 yards, outgaining them by nearly 200 yards. But they did commit three turnovers to keep the Bengals in the game.
Still, no starting debut for a QB could have gone any better than the one for Mike White against the Bengals. White went 37-of-45 passing for 405 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Michael Carter emerged as the lead back as a rookie, rushing for 77 yards and a score while also catching nine balls for 95 yards. This young team is looking forward to this opportunity on a National TV stage to showcase what they are capable of now with White running the show.
While the injury news is looking up on the Jets' front, the Colts suffered some more key injuries against the Titans last week. T.Y. Hilton suffered a concussion and left the game and will be out for this one. Wentz was terrible after he left. DT Tyquon Lewis suffered a season-ending knee injury as well.
Plays on road underdogs or PK (NY Jets) - after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites. Bet the Jets Thursday.
|11-01-21||Giants v. Chiefs -9.5||17-20||Loss||-110||98 h 33 m||Show|
15* Giants/Chiefs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City -9.5
This line opened at Chiefs -13 this week and has been bet all the way down to -9.5. It's now time to pull the trigger on the Chiefs in a game I fully expect them to win by double-digits. This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Chiefs and 'sell high' spot on the Giants.
The Chiefs are coming off a shocking 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. They will be playing with their hair on fire after that embarrassing defeat. The Giants are coming off an upset win over the Panthers 25-3 last week. They will be feeling a little fat and happy after that performance.
The Chiefs have owned the NFC East this season. They beat the Eagles 42-30 on the road and Washington 31-13 on the road. The Giants aren't better than either of those two teams. Now the Chiefs get to face an NFC East team at home here and should crush it. Daniel Jones won't be able to match Patrick Mahomes score for score, just as Taylor Heineke and Jalen Hurts came up short as well.
The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. AFC opponents. Andy Reid is 8-1 ATS in Monday Night Football games as the coach of Kansas City. New York is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 15 points last game. Bet the Chiefs Monday.
|10-31-21||Cowboys v. Vikings -2.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||74 h 1 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Vikings NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
I was going to be on the Vikings before the news that Dak Prescott is unlikely to play came out Thursday. And now I'm jumping on this 2.5-point spread thinking if Prescott doesn't play this line will close a lot higher. And I like the Vikings to win by a field goal or more either way so it will be a bonus if he doesn't play.
The Vikings are 3-3 this season but very close to being 6-0. They lost in OT on the road to the Bengals after a fumble when they were in FG range to win. They missed an extra point and a short FG at the buzzer in a 33-34 loss at Arizona, and that loss looks a lot better now with the Cardinals off to a 7-0 start. And they scored on their opening drive against the Browns but didn't score again in their 14-7 loss, and that was a healthy Browns team that was playing well.
It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys. They are the only team in the NFL that has covered every spread with a perfect 6-0 ATS record. But they have had a lot of turnover luck go their way as they have forced at least two turnovers in every game and 14 in six games overall. That is unsustainable.
The Cowboys still have a terrible defense that will get exposed here against this elite Minnesota offense. Dallas gives up 381 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. They rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Vikings are 17th in in defensive yards per play at 5.6 to compare.
This Minnesota offense averages 24.5 points and 414 yards per games to go along with 5.9 yards per play. Dalvin Cook is back in the fold, and Kirk Cousins is playing well. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio. And he won't have to try and match Dak Prescott score for score if he doesn't play.
Minnesota was a dominant home team under Mike Zimmer prior to the last two years due to the design of the stadium. It is loud and very tough for opponents. But not having fans last year makes us throw last year out. And they are 2-1 at home this season with their only loss to the Browns.
Minnesota is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 home games after a win by 6 points or less. Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in the last six home meetings. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|10-31-21||Titans v. Colts -113||Top||34-31||Loss||-113||95 h 3 m||Show|
25* AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -113
The Colts will be out for revenge from a 25-16 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season. They have been a different team since that loss. They have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only loss came in overtime against the Ravens on the road after blowing a 19-point lead.
They beat the Dolphins by 10 on the road, the Texans by 28 at home and the 49ers by 12 on the road. Carson Wentz is playing some of the best football of his career, and the Colts are getting healthier by the week.
I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans. They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bills and Chiefs. That 27-3 win over the broken Chiefs last week has them overvalued. The Titans could be missing both starting tackles on the offensive line and their injury list is ugly.
Slowing down Derrick Henry is the key to slowing down the Titans. The Colts have a pretty good run defense in giving up just 111 rushing yards per game. The Titans have a weak defense this season that gives up nearly 380 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.
The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Colts are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Tennessee is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. The Colts are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|10-31-21||Rams v. Texans +14.5||38-22||Loss||-109||67 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Texans +14.5
It's time to 'buy low' on the Houston Texans this week after losing six straight and going 1-4 ATS in their five games since losing QB Tyrod Taylor to injury. The Texans looked great with Taylor in the first 1.5 games at QB, and now he is expected to make his much-anticipated return from a hamstring injury this week.
We'll gladly take the 14.5 points at home with the Texans. They were last seen at home nearly upsetting the Patriots as 8-point dogs in a 22-25 loss even with Davis Mills at QB. The other three games were all tough road losses to the Bills, Colts and Cardinals. Having Taylor back will allow them to stay within this massive spread against the Rams.
Los Angeles was in a dog fight with the Detroit Lions last week in a 28-19 home win. That's a Detroit team that is not any better than the Texans with Taylor. And it was an emotional game for Matthew Stafford against his former team. Now this is a letdown spot for the Rams, who probably feel like they just have to show up to win. It's also a 1:00 EST game which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Rams.
Taylor is completing 70.5% of his passes for 416 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his six quarters of action this season. He has also rushed for 55 yards and a score. He just brings a much needed dimension to this offense that Davis Mills lacked. He will keep the offense on the field for longer stretches, and that will help this defense get some rest, which it hasn't had much of with Mills under center.
The Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins. The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-28-21||Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals||Top||24-21||Win||100||25 h 53 m||Show|
20* Packers/Cardinals FOX No-Brainer on Green Bay +6.5
This line has gotten out of hand with the news that Devante Adams and Allen Lazard are out for the Packers. It has ballooned from Packers +3 to Packers +6.5, which is too big of an adjustment. There's now value to pull the trigger on the Packers Thursday night.
Quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers are a dime a dozen. He is capable of making his receivers better than they are. And I think he'll welcome the challenge here of trying to hand the Arizona Cardinals their first loss of the season without those two. Plus, the Packers are 6-0 the last three seasons without Adams and scoring 32.8 points per game, so they have had no problem scoring in his absence.
The Cardinals are already overvalued due to their perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS record this season. It's time to 'sell high' on them here Thursday night against one of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers. You could argue that Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and getting him as this big of a dog is very enticing.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off four straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.
Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Arizona is 1-11 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 200 or fewer yards last game. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites. Bet the Packers Thursday.
|10-25-21||Saints v. Seahawks +4||13-10||Win||100||11 h 7 m||Show|
15* Saints/Seahawks ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +4
The Seattle Seahawks are playing to save their season tonight. At 2-4 they need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think we get a big effort from them in front of a hostile crowd in Seattle.
Geno Smith has actually looked pretty good in replacing Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a chance to beat the Rams even without Wilson in the second half. They also had a chance to beat the Steelers in a 20-23 road loss. Smith is completing 67.3% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.
I think the Saints are getting too much respect from the books due to coming off their bye week. But you just can't trust Jameis Winston to go on the road and cover a 4-point spread here in a hostile environment in Seattle.
The Saints have terrible stats this season. They are averaging just 295.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 354.0 yards per game on defense, so they are getting outgained by 58.8 yards per game. They are also getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play. The Seahawks have good numbers from a YPP perspective, outgaining opponents by 0.4 YPP on the season.
The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss. Seattle is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Seahawks Monday.
|10-24-21||Texans +18 v. Cardinals||5-31||Loss||-102||23 h 12 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +18
It's time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Cardinals. They're the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 6-0. They are coming off three straight huge wins over the Rams, 49ers and Browns. This is the ultimate letdown spot for them with the perceived worst team in the NFL in the Houston Texans coming to town.
Plus, the Cardinals have another huge game with the Green Bay Packers on deck Thursday. They will be looking ahead to that game. They will also be playing this game just to get a win and get out of the game healthy for that Packers game. They won't be looking to run up the score.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Texans after five consecutive losses. I actually like what I have seen from this Houston offense the last two weeks despite the scoreboard results. They had 360 yards and outgained the Patriots by 8 yards two weeks ago in their 22-25 loss. They had 353 yards against the Colts last week, but just 3 points, which should be impossible. That misleading 31-3 loss where they were only outgained by 35 yards has this number inflated with an 18-point spread this week.
Arizona is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. They got to play against two banged-up offenses the last two weeks in the 49ers and Browns. The Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites. Roll with the Texans Sunday.
|10-24-21||Eagles +3 v. Raiders||Top||22-33||Loss||-107||98 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles +3
I think most the country was shocked to see the Raiders win 34-24 at Denver as 5-point underdogs last week. With all the John Gruden turmoil surrounding the team it was hard to know what to expect, so I stayed away from that game.
But teams always seem to have a big effort in that first game with a new head coach. The Raiders rallied around each other. They also got some help with four turnovers from the Broncos. It was an injury-ravaged Broncos team that still managed 421 yards against their soft defense.
I think it's time to fade the Raiders this week in their 2nd game back without Gruden. They won't be nearly as motivated as they were last week. The motivated team will be the Eagles, who have lost four of their last five and are playing for their season. But you won't find a harder 5-game stretch all season than the one Philadelphia just faced.
The five games came against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers and Bucs. They gave the Bucs all they wanted last Thursday in a 22-28 home loss. And now the Eagles have had an extra three days to get ready for this game. They come in as healthy as they have been all season. Jalen Hurts and all that speed on offense should shred this terrible Raiders defense that is giving up 24 PPG.
The Raiders are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games as favorites. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
|10-24-21||Panthers -3 v. Giants||3-25||Loss||-100||20 h 46 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off three straight one-score losses against some pretty good competition in the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings. Now they are only 3-point favorites against the lowly New York Giants.
The Giants are off to yet another 1-5 start this season. The last two losses weren't even close as they lost by 24 to the Cowboys and 27 to the Rams. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Giants. They have 22 players on the injury report with 17 out and five questionable. They are missing a ton of weapons on offense, and Daniel Jones isn't right, either.
The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Giants are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. The Giants are an easy team to figure out. They consistently get too much respect at home and not enough on the road. They have almost zero home-field advantage with the way the fans feel about this team right now. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|10-21-21||Broncos v. Browns OVER 40.5||14-17||Loss||-115||11 h 16 m||Show|
15* Broncos/Browns NFL Total DOMINATOR on OVER 40.5
This is a very low total for any NFL game. But it's definitely low considering the circumstances with the short week that always favors the offenses with less time to prepare. And the fact that these teams aren't familiar with one another being a non-divisional game.
I know both teams have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, especially the Browns on offense. But I think Case Keenum isn't that much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, especially the Mayfield we saw last week on a bum shoulder.
Cleveland's defense is terrible and tired. The Browns gave up 47 points and 493 yards to the Chargers two weeks ago and another 37 points to the Cardinals last week. The Broncos haven't been much better of late defensively. They gave up 27 points and 391 yards to the Steelers two weeks ago and 34 points and 446 yards to the Raiders last week.
The OVER is 4-1 in Browns last five home games. The OVER is 5-1 in Browns last six against AFC opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-18-21||Bills v. Titans +5.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||145 h 42 m||Show|
20* Bills/Titans ESPN No-Brainer on Tennessee +5.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Buffalo Bills. They are getting massive respect from oddsmakers and the betting public right now after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with four straight blowout victories.
The Bills are coming off a 38-20 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That was a huge revenge game for them after losing twice to the Chiefs last season, including getting eliminated by them in the playoffs. Now they are fat and happy and feeling good about themselves, making them ripe for the picking. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Titans as they were the Chiefs.
The Titans have quietly gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the NFL year after year. That was on display last year when they beat the Bills 42-16 at home as 3-point underdogs. Now they are catching 5.5 points at home in the rematch.
The Bills have been forcing turnovers at an alarming rate, which is unsustainable. They have forced three or more turnovers in four consecutive games and 15 turnovers overall in those four games. Tennessee isn't a team that turns it over much as they are a run-heavy team, and Ryan Tannehill does a good job of taking care of the ball. They have only committed seven turnovers in five games this season.
Plays against favorites (Buffalo) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Monday games. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Titans Monday.
|10-17-21||Cowboys v. Patriots +4||Top||35-29||Loss||-107||117 h 3 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Patriots Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New England +4
It's time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys. They are the only remaining unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0 ATS this season. They have won three straight home games against mediocre teams coming in.
The Cowboys haven't fared as well on the road. They were fortunate to beat the Chargers 20-17 as the refs basically handed them that victory. And they lost to the Bucs on the road in the opener despite forcing four turnovers. And their turnover and injury luck has been unbelievable this year. Players on opposing teams keep going down mid-game, and they have already forced 12 turnovers and at least two turnovers in every game, which is unsustainable.
The Patriots are just 2-3 this season and thus it's time to 'buy low' on them. Two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points. The other was a misleading 13-28 loss to the Saints in which they were -3 in turnovers and outgained the Saints by 48 yards. Keep in mind they were last seen at home nearly upsetting the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs, hitting the upright on a potential game-winning field goal in a 17-19 loss.
Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play. They have an elite offense at 6.7 yards per play, but a terrible defense giving up 6.5 yards per play. To compare, the Patriots have an elite defense in giving up 5.3 yards per play. And Mac Jones is primed to have one of his best games of the season against this Dallas defense.
Bill Belichick is 14-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs of 7 points or fewer. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites. New England is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 games as an underdog overall. Roll with the Patriots Sunday.
|10-17-21||Cardinals v. Browns -2.5||Top||37-14||Loss||-115||125 h 9 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns -2.5
The Arizona Cardinals are overvalued due to being the last remaining team in the NFL at 5-0. We'll 'sell high' on them this week. They should have lost to the Vikings and they should have lost to the 49ers based on the numbers in the 49ers games and the missed kicks by the Vikings. So they really should be 3-2.
Cleveland is very close to being the 5-0 team. Their only two losses both came on the road to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and Chargers. They blew a 29-20 4th quarter lead to the Chiefs and a 27-13 3rd quarter lead to the Chargers. In fact, they became the 1st team in NFL history to lose a game when scoring 40 points and having more than 500 yards of offense in that Chargers defeat.
The Browns are 2-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.0 points per game and outgaining them by 212 yards per game. They are outgaining opponents by 118.8 yards per game on the season. They are outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.4 yards per play on defense. To compare, Arizona is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.
The matchup is a great one for this Cleveland offense. They average 188 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. Well, Arizona gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry. And keep in mind Kyler Murray suffered an arm injury against the 49ers last week and they managed just 17 points as the offense looked out of sync all game. He isn't 100% coming into this one.
Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. NFC opponents. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. They will suffer their first loss of the season to Cleveland in this one. Take the Browns Sunday.
|10-17-21||Vikings v. Panthers -1||Top||34-28||Loss||-110||123 h 54 m||Show|
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers -1
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. This is a 'circle the wagons' game as they are looking at is as a must-win at home with their next two games coming on the road. We'll get one of their best efforts of the season.
That should be good enough to win and cover here as a 1-point home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings. This is a Vikings team that is just 2-3 this season with one of its wins coming over the Lions, and the other coming against a Seahawks team that is clearly not as good as everyone thought coming into the season. And they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Lions.
The Panthers should be 4-1 instead of 3-2. They deserved to lose at Dallas, which is proving to be one of the best teams in the NFL. But they blew a late lead to the Eagles last week in a game they were in control throughout. And they dominated their first three games of the season, outscoring the Jets, Saints and Texans by a combined score of 69-30.
The Panthers have the numbers of an elite team. They are outgaining opponents by 107 yards per game on the season behind a defense that is giving up just 256 yards per game. And the offense is improved under Sam Darnold and offensive mastermind Joe Brady calling the plays.
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game at home. Minnesota is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games overall. Currently as of this writing, Minnesota is a 1-point favorite, and the Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|10-17-21||Texans +10 v. Colts||3-31||Loss||-110||114 h 38 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +10
The Houston Texans impressed me last week in their 22-25 home loss to the New England Patriots as 8-point underdogs. They actually outgained the Patriots in the game, but missed kicks cost them the win. Davis Mills had his best game of the season, completing 21 of 29 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and I expect him to build off of that performance.
The Indianapolis Colts cannot be trusted as 10-point favorites here. They are 1-4 on the season with their lone win coming against the hapless Miami Dolphins. And the spot is a terrible one for the Colts. They blew a 22-3 lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, eventually losing 25-31 (OT).
It's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after they did almost everything right in that game to win. Carson Wentz finally played to his potential, but it still wasn't enough. And now they are on a short week after an overtime game, so they won't be fully recovered in time for the Texans. And the injuries are mounting up for the Colts with 12 players out and another 6 questionable.
This has been a very closely-contested division rivalry. In fact, 14 of the last 15 meetings have been decided by 9 points or less. That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Texans pertaining to this 10-point spread. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take the Texans Sunday.
|10-14-21||Bucs v. Eagles +7||28-22||Win||100||49 h 59 m||Show|
15* Bucs/Eagles NFC ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +7
The Philadelphia Eagles have played a brutal schedule thus far of Atlanta, San Francisco, Dallas, Kansas City and Carolina. It's safe to say they are battle-tested and ready for this challenge against the Tampa Bay Bucs tonight.
The Eagles have put up tremendous numbers against that brutal schedule, and they are a grossly undervalued team right now. They are averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and giving up only 5.2 yards per play on defense against teams that normally averaged 6.0 yards per play. So they are outgaining their opponents by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL.
The Bucs give up 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally averaged 5.7 yards per play, so they have a below-average defense this year. A big reason for that is they are missing several key players in the secondary. They are also without LB Lavonte David. Offensively, both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are questionable, and Tom Brady is battling an injured thumb.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bucs off their 45-17 home win over the hapless Miami Dolphins last week. The Bucs haven't fared nearly as well on the road. They lost 24-34 to the Rams and barely escaped with a 19-17 win at New England in their two road games this season.
Plays against favorites (Tampa Bay) - with a great offense that average 385 or more yards per game, after gaining 450 or more yards per game in their last three games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.
The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Eagles Thursday.
|10-11-21||Colts v. Ravens -7||Top||25-31||Loss||-100||130 h 48 m||Show|
20* Colts/Ravens ESPN No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
The Baltimore Ravens have found their groove since an opening loss to the Raiders. They have won three straight since including an upset victory over the Chiefs and a 23-7 road win at Denver. Now they will be playing just their 2nd home game of the season, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. They should get back to being the same old Ravens moving forward.
The Indianapolis Colts are a mess due to all their injuries. They are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a bad Miami Dolphins team playing with a backup QB last week. I think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because of that victory.
The Colts had previously lost their first three games to start the season. They lost 16-28 to the Seahawks, 24-27 to the Rams and 16-25 to the Titans. They were outgained in all three games, and this is probably going to be their stiffest test of the season on the road at the Ravens.
Baltimore has the numbers to match their 3-1 record. They outgained the Chiefs by 76 yards and had 481 yards of offense, they outgained the Lions by 102 yards and had 387 yards of offense, and they outgained the Broncos by 152 yards behind 406 yards of offense.
Frank Reich is 0-6 ATS vs. AFC North opponents as the coach of the Colts. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. They seem to just beat up on bad teams, and that should be the case here under the lights of Monday Night Football. Bet the Ravens Monday.
|10-10-21||Giants +7 v. Cowboys||20-44||Loss||-107||102 h 58 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +7
The Dallas Cowboys are the only remaining team that is unbeaten ATS, going 4-0 ATS through their first four games. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys now as 7-point home favorites over the division rival New York Giants.
While the Cowboys have an elite offense, their defense isn't nearly as good as it is getting credit for. They simply can't keep forcing turnovers at this rate. They have already forced 10 turnovers in four games. But they rank 30th in the NFL in giving up 6.4 yards per play this season.
The Giants have a sneaky good offense and a decent defense, giving up 5.9 yards per play. The Giants are 8th in the NFL at 6.2 yards per play, barely behind Dallas' 6.4 per play in 7th place. These teams are a lot closer than this line would indicate.
The Giants were coming off two losses to the Falcons and Washington by a combined 4 points before showing their resiliency last week, winning 27-21 at New Orleans. They had 485 total yards against a very good Saints defense, and Daniel Jones is playing the best football of his career this season. He is capable of matching the Cowboys score for score in this one.
The Giants are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games. New York is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog. Joe Judge is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. NFC opponents as the coach of New York. Roll with the Giants Sunday.
|10-10-21||Broncos v. Steelers -1||Top||19-27||Win||100||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode now after a 1-3 start. Expect their best effort of the season when they host the Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon with their season essentially on the line. It should be enough to win and cover here as a short home favorite.
The Steelers were hampered by injuries in their losses to the Raiders and Bengals, who have both turned out to be very good teams. Their other loss came on the road against the Packers, which is expected. But remember, they upset the Bills in Week 1, so we know what they are capable of. Their four games have come against teams that are a combined 12-4 this season, so they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. And they are getting healthier by the week.
It's time to fade the Denver Broncos, who are 3-1 this season while benefitting from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Their three wins came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. They got put in their place last week in a 7-23 home loss to the Ravens as Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a concussion.
Bridgewater is questionable to return this week, and with this pick it doesn't really matter who starts for them, though getting Drew Lock again would be an added bonus. Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Broncos. They could be without as many as nine starters this week, who are either out, doubtful or questionable.
Mike Tomlin is 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. It's time to 'buy low' on the Steelers this week as you will probably never get better value with them than you are here at home against the Broncos. Bet the Steelers Sunday.
|10-10-21||Packers v. Bengals +3||25-22||Push||0||99 h 34 m||Show|
15* Packers/Bengals Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cincinnati +3
The Cincinnati Bengals are greatly improved this season. They are off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming 20-17 on the road to the Chicago Bears in a game in which they held the Bears to just 206 total yards and were -3 in turnovers.
The Bengals have beaten the Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars. Now they have extra time to prepare after beating the Jaguars last Thursday. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up just 18.8 points and 323.0 yards per game. And their offense is loaded with playmakers surrounding the underrated Joe Burrow, who continues to impress week after week.
The Packers are injury-ravaged right now, which is the biggest reason we are fading them. They are without LB Za'Darius Smith, T David Bakhtiari, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They have five other starters questionable in LB Preston Smith, CB Jaire Alexander, G Elgton Jenkins, LB Krys Barnes and CB Kevin King. Their issues at CB will particularly be a problem against Burrow and company.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Bengals Sunday.
|10-10-21||Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45||Top||21-18||Loss||-104||99 h 34 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Panthers OVER 45
The Philadelphia Eagles are clearly an OVER team. They just combined for 62 points with the Dallas Cowboys and 72 points with the Kansas City Chiefs the last two weeks. They won't have any problem combining for 45-plus points with the Carolina Panthers this week.
The Eagles have an electric offense with Jalen Hurts and a ton of young skill talent. They are averaging 397.5 yards per game. But their defense has some significant injuries, and as a result they are giving up 26.5 PPG. This is the worst defense the Eagles have had in years.
The Panthers are coming alive in Joe Brady's offense in his second season as coordinator. They are averaging 387.5 yards per game this season behind the improved play of Sam Darnold, who already has five rushing touchdowns. He is completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt.
Carolina's defense isn't as good as the season-long numbers would suggest. They played three of the worst offenses in the NFL to start the season in the Jets, Saints and Texans. But they met their match last week in a 28-36 loss to the Cowboys in a game that saw 64 combined points.
The OVER is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games as road underdogs. The OVER is 33-16 in Eagles last 49 road games overall. The OVER is 34-17 in Panthers last 51 games after a game where 60 or more points were scored. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|10-10-21||Saints v. Washington Football Team +2||33-22||Loss||-103||99 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Washington +2
The New Orleans Saints are way overrated this season. They should not be road favorites over the Washington Football Team Sunday. This is a game I expect Washington to win outright, but we'll take the +2 for some insurance.
New Orleans is averaging just 276.8 yards per game on offense and giving up 349.3 yards per game on defense. They are getting outgained by nearly 75 yards per game. And it's not like they have played that difficult of a schedule. They can't figure out who their quarterback is as they are dealing with two below-average guys in Winston and Hill, and they have so many injuries right now on both sides of the ball.
Washington gutted out a 34-30 win in Atlanta last week despite missing two extra points and a two-point conversion chasing those two missed extra points. That's the type of win that will bring this team together, and Taylor Heineke is showing he's not a downgrade at all at quarterback. He is completing 69.5% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 87 yards and a score as a dual-threat.
Ron Rivera is 49-21 ATS after playing his last game on the road as a head coach. Rivera is 10-2 ATS vs. teams who commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach. The Football Team is 8-1 in their last nine games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game. The Football Team is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Football Team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|10-07-21||Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5||Top||26-17||Win||100||34 h 56 m||Show|
20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 54.5
The Los Angeles Rams have played two straight high-powered offenses in the Tampa Bay Bucs and Arizona Cardinals. Both games wen over the total, and that has this total against the Seattle Seahawks inflated. There's definitely value in this UNDER Thursday night.
Seattle has also played three straight very good offenses in the Titans, Vikings and 49ers. That also has this total inflated as both of these teams have better defenses than the numbers would show to this point. And Seattle plays at a slow pace, averaging just 50 players per game. The Rams only average 58 plays per game on offense.
Division games are always played closer to the vest. Teams are more familiar with one another playing each other twice a season. They always tend to be lower-scoring. That has been the case in this series, too.
The Rams and Seahawks have combined for 50 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. They combined for 50, 29, 39 and 40 points in each of the last four meetings, respectively. That's an average of just 39.5 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 54.5-point total.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Rams last 27 games as favorites. The UNDER is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall. Seattle is 6-0 UNDER vs. teams that allow 375 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|10-04-21||Raiders +3.5 v. Chargers||Top||14-28||Loss||-115||126 h 26 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +3.5
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 this season and have played three very good teams in the Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins. Those three teams all have great defenses, and this Oakland offense has lit up the scoreboard and the numbers against all three.
The Raiders are scoring 30.0 points per game this season and averaging 471.0 yards per game. Derek Carr has already thrown for 1,203 yards in three games. The Raiders definitely deserved to win all three games as they outgained the Ravens by 85 yards, the Steelers by 94 yards and the Dolphins by 167 yards.
The Chargers are 2-1 this season despite getting outgained in two games. They were outgained by 85 yards by the Chiefs last week. And because they pulled the upset win over such a big rival and defending Super Bowl champ, this is actually a letdown spot for the Chargers. We saw the Ravens nearly lose to the Lions last week after upsetting the Chiefs the week before.
With this game being played in Los Angeles there's going to be a ton of Raiders fans there. It might actually be a home-field advantage for them. So this line makes no sense with the Chargers being 3.5-point favorites considering these are basically even teams. There is value with the Raiders this week because of it.
Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Los Angeles. The underdog is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Bet the Raiders Monday.
|10-03-21||Bucs v. Patriots +7||Top||19-17||Win||100||103 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +7
The betting public is all over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in this game. They don't believe Tom Brady is going to lose to his former team. But that is where the point spread is the great equalizer, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bucs here as 7-point road favorites against the Patriots.
The Bucs are fortunate to be 2-1 this season. They overcame four turnovers in the opener and needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys 31-29, failing to cover as 10-point favorites. They only held a 3-point lead over the Falcons at home in the 2nd half before getting two straight pick-6's that turned the game. And last week they lost outright 24-34 at the Rams as 1-point favorites.
The defending Super Bowl champion is almost always overvalued, and that was the case with the Chiefs last year. That's the case with the Bucs this year, especially in this spot with Brady returning to face his former team. While Brady and the offense are humming, the defense has been a problem in giving up 29.3 points and 402.0 yards per game this season. They have been awful against the pass, allowing 338 passing yards per game.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Patriots, who are coming off an upset home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. But the Patriots gave that game away by being -3 in turnovers. It was much closer than the final score, and the Patriots actually outgained the Saints by 48 yards in that contest.
The best unit on the field might be the Patriots defense. They are giving up just 17.0 points per game and 282.3 yards per game this season. Mac Jones has been up against three very good defenses, and this is actually a step down in class from what he has faced thus far in the Dolphins, Saints and Jets. He is primed for his best game of the season.
Tampa Bay is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three straight games. New England is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games as a home underdog. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|10-03-21||Browns v. Vikings +2||Top||14-7||Loss||-104||95 h 12 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +2
The Minnesota Vikings could easily be 3-0 against a very tough schedule thus far. But since they are 1-2 they are undervalued right now. They lost in OT in Week 1 at Cincinnati after fumbling when they were in field goal range for the game-winning kick. They missed an extra point and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at Arizona in a 1-point loss in Week 2.
But last week they showed some resiliency and beat the Seahawks handily 30-17 in their first home game of the season. They are a much better home team than a road team under Mike Zimmer through the years. And their offense is hitting on all cylinders this season.
The Vikings are 8th in scoring offense at 29.0 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 425 yards pre game. They didn't miss Dalvin Cook one bit last week as backup Alexander Mattison accounted for 171 yards from scrimmage. But there's a good chance Cook returns this week as he returned to practice.
After losing to the Chiefs on the road in Week 1, the Browns have beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL at home the last two weeks in the Texans and Bears. They basically beat two rookie quarterbacks in those two games as Davis Mills replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor early for the Texans and Justin Fields made his first career start for the Bears.
Now they take a big step up in class here against a motivated Vikings team that wants to get back to .500 on the season. Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his career. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by more than 14 points. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|10-03-21||Washington Football Team -115 v. Falcons||34-30||Win||100||95 h 11 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington ML -115
The Washington Football Team has been a disappointment thus far in 2021. They have gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS through three games. It's time to 'buy low' on them, especially considering their two losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills and Chargers.
Now Washington takes a big step down in class here against the Atlanta Falcons. This is a Falcons team that was terrible in the preseason and terrible in their first two games, losing 32-6 to the Eagles at home and 48-25 to the Bucs on the road.
But now the Falcons are getting some respect from the books after upsetting the Giants 17-14 on the road last week. That win comes with an asterisk as the Giants lost two of their top receivers during the game and were hamstrung on offense.
Washington has the better defense here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have the better offense as Matt Ryan has looked washed this season. But I fully expect a rally the troops type of effort from Washington based on comments made by Ron Rivera after the loss to the Bills.
Plays on any teams (Washington) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense that allows at least 5.8 YPP, after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Atlanta is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams who force 0.75 turnovers or fewer per game on the season. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss as a head coach. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Washington Sunday.
|09-30-21||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5||Top||21-24||Loss||-105||31 h 31 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 45.5
Prime time OVERS have been money makers the last couple seasons. And this game sets up to be an OVER game tonight with these two teams in the Jaguars and Bengals. Both have suspect defenses.
The Jaguars have really been poor defensively. They rank 28th in scoring defense at 30.3 points per game and 29th in total defense at 418 yards per game. And they've only played one good offense in the Cardinals, who lite them up for 31 points last week. The other two teams were the Broncos and Texans.
The Cincinnati Bengals have good defensive numbers thus far and may be improved on that side of the ball, but they have played two poor offenses in the Bears and Steelers. They did give up 24 points and 403 total yards to the best offense they have faced in the Vikings.
The Jaguars have been able to move the football with 395 yards against the Texans and 361 yards against the Cardinals. But they have killed themselves with turnovers, committing 10 of them already in three games. That can also help the OVER by setting up easy scores for the Bengals.
Cincinnati does have an elite offense with great skill players. They have played three tough defenses and have fared well against the Vikings, Bears and Steelers. This is a big step down in class for them, and Joe Burrow is primed for his best game of the season. I'm expecting the Bengals to score 30-plus to carry the load on this OVER.
Cincinnati is 6-0 OVER in home games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last three seasons. We are seeing 56.3 combined points per game in this spot. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
|09-27-21||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||21-41||Loss||-106||143 h 32 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys this week. They took advantage of four Tampa Bay turnovers in Week 1 and covered in a 29-31 loss as 9-point underdogs. Then last week they went on the road and upset the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point dogs on a last-second 56-yard field goal by Greg Zurlein.
So now the Cowboys go from being dogs in both of those games and substantial dogs at that to 4-point home favorites here against the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a big overreaction as this game should be lined closer to a pick 'em. There's a ton of value on the Eagles this week for a number of different reasons.
The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this year after having one of the worst last year. They are giving up 419.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. Compare that to Philadelphia, which is giving up just 283 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season, and you can see why I'm siding with the Eagles. They just held the 49ers to 17 points and 306 total yards last week after giving up just 6 points and 260 total yards to the Falcons in Week 1.
The Eagles did struggle offensively last week against a very good 49ers defense, but they had their chances in that game and still outgained them with 328 total yards. The Eagles are averaging 6.2 yards per play this season, which isn't far behind the Cowboys, who are averaging 6.4 yards per play.
And the injury situation is worse for the Cowboys than it is for the Eagles. They are without T La'el Collins, WR Michael Gallup and DE Demarcus Lawrence. They also have seven players questionable heading into this game, including WR Amari Cooper. Jalen Hurts will make enough players to keep the Eagles in this game, and there's no question I trust Philadelphia's defense to get more stops than Dallas in this one.
Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - a poor team from last season that was outscored by 4.0 points per game or more, versus division opponents are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1993. The Cowboys are 22-47 ATS in their last 69 games as home favorites. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite overall. Roll with the Eagles Monday.
|09-26-21||Packers v. 49ers OVER 49||Top||30-28||Win||100||121 h 35 m||Show|
20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49
The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks. Those aren't two particularly good offenses. And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them. They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.
The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings. They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one. The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass. They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.
The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers. He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes. He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.
These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory. Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G. I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.
The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco. The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games. The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games. The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.
|09-26-21||Bucs v. Rams +1||Top||24-34||Win||100||115 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bucs/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1
No team has impressed me more than the Los Angeles Rams through two games. After beating the Bears 34-14 at home in Week 1, they went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Colts 27-24. That was even after handing the Colts seven free points on special teams when they snapped the ball into the up man and the Colts recovered it in the end zone.
The Rams are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and giving up just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining their opponents by 1.9 yards per play. They have the same elite defense that they've had in years' past, and now they finally have a QB in Matthew Stafford fit for running Sean McVay's offense. Stafford is completing 69.6% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging a ridiculous 10.7 yards per attempt.
The Bucs are overhyped after their 2-0 start that has seen them score 31 points against the Cowboys and 48 more against the Falcons. But they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys, and they got 14 points handed to them by the Falcons on tipped balls that resulted in pick-6's. That was a 28-25 game in the 4th quarter before the Bucs scored three touchdowns without even blinking to put it away. And the Falcons are terrible.
The Bucs put up gaudy offensive numbers against two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now they take a big step up in class here against the Rams, who led the NFL in total defense last year. And we remember what the Rams did to them last year. They went on the road at Tampa Bay and won 27-24 while limiting the Bucs to just 251 total yards.
Tom Brady had one of his worst games of the season, completing 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Even Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns on this Tampa Bay defense, so you can imagine what Stafford is going to do. That's especially the case with all of the injuries the Bucs have in the secondary that has seen them give up 342 passing yards per game through two games thus far.
The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss. Los Angeles is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NFC opponents. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucs. Roll with the Rams Sunday.
|09-26-21||Saints v. Patriots -2.5||Top||28-13||Loss||-118||111 h 30 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots -2.5
The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for a month due to the hurricane. It has been a terrible travel situation for them and they have to be getting fatigued both mentally and physically. I think we saw some of that last week in their 26-7 loss to Carolina. And I don't think it's going to get much better for them this week on the road at New England.
After taking advantage of a bad spot for the Packers, who were rusty without Aaron Rodgers most of training camp in a 38-3 win by the Saints, New Orleans came back down to reality last week. Carolina beat them up and down the field. They held the Saints to just 128 total yards in the first meaningful road start for Jameis Winston. He want 11-of-22 for 111 yards with two interceptions in defeat. He was also sacked four times.
I don't think it was any coincidence that the offense struggled considering they were missing as many as six offensive coaches due to COVID. Those guys aren't likely to be back this week. And they are still without WR's Malcolm Thomas and Tre'quan Smith as well as starting C Erik McCoy. Defensively, the Saints are missing LB Kwon Alexander, DE Marcus Davenport and could be without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore again this week.
After giving the game away with a fumble at the goal line in a 16-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 1, the Patriots responded with an emphatic 25-6 beat down of the New York Jets on the road in Week 2. That's the same Jets team that only lost by 5 to the Panthers the previous week, a Panthers team that beat the Saints by 19. The Patriots forced four interceptions from Zach Wilson and will likely force a couple more from Winston this week.
The Patriots have been able to run the ball for over 100 yards each of their first two games, and Mac Jones isn't making mistakes. Jones is completing 73.9% of his passes with one touchdown and zero interceptions this season and easily looks like the best of the rookie quarterbacks through two weeks.
This Patriots defense looks much improved this year, too. They got back a handful of players that opted out last year and it has made a big difference. New England is only giving up 11.5 points per game and 297.5 yards per game through two games. They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in total defense.
Bill Belichick is 81-45 ATS off a division game as the coach of the Patriots. Belichick is 23-9 ATS after allowing 6 points or less as the coach of New England. The Patriots are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 14 points. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|09-26-21||Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs||30-24||Win||100||111 h 18 m||Show|
15* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6.5
I've been extremely impressed with the Los Angeles Chargers through two weeks. They really should be 2-0. They dominated more than the final score showed in their 20-16 victory at Washington in Week 1. They racked up 424 total yards on a good Washington defense and outgained them by 165 yards.
Last week, the refs cost them the game against the Cowboys in a 17-20 loss on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer by Greg Zurlein. They had 408 more yards against the Cowboys, and Justin Herbert is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 675 yards and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs were fortunate to come back from a 9-point deficit late to beat the Browns 33-29 in Week 1. Then last week they stumbled and lost 35-36 to the Baltimore Ravens despite getting a pick-six in that contest. Their defense just cannot be trusted. They rank last in the NFL in total defense at 469 yards per game and last in yards per play (7.6) allowed.
Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are now just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They just don't beat teams by more than one score because of their dreadful defense, so getting nearly a full touchdown here with the Chargers is an excellent value. They'll never be out of this game with Herbert. And the Chargers have the much better defense. Holding Washington to 16 points and Dallas to 20 is no small feat.
Last year, the Chargers only lost 20-23 at home as 9-point underdogs to the Chiefs. They had 479 total yards in that defeat. They came back and won 38-21 in Week 17 on the road and had 416 more yards. I would be shocked if the Chiefs won by a touchdown or more here. And we're quickly seeing that the Super Bowl loser hangover is real with the Chiefs off to an 0-2 ATS start. Yet they keep getting priced like they are the best team in the NFL week after week, which just isn't the case with their leaky defense..
Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - an excellent passing team from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite. Los Angeles is 35-14-4 ATS in its last 53 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City. Take the Chargers Sunday.
|09-26-21||Washington Football Team +9.5 v. Bills||21-43||Loss||-118||111 h 18 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +9.5
Washington hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 14 games dating back to last season. That makes for a 14-0 system backing Washington pertaining to this 9.5-point spread against the Bills. This team has been a money-making machine as an underdog.
I like the spot for Washington getting extra time to prepare after beating the Giants on Thursday last week. Taylor Heinicke was excellent against the Giants. He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He led the game-winning drive in the final couple minutes. And he should make even more improvements this week with extra practice time to prepare to be the starter.
Washington's defense has too much talent to play as poorly as it has to this point. Ron Rivera called out his defense after that win and they should play with a chip on their shoulder this week. And it's actually a 'buy low' spot on Washington after failing to cover the spread in each of their first two games despite going 1-1 SU.
This is a great time to 'sell high' on Buffalo off its 35-0 win at Miami last week. The Bills were fortunate that Tua Tagovailoa got hurt in that game and they got to face backup Jacoby Brissett. And the Bills just simply own the Dolphins, so it wasn't a surprise. Remember, the Bills were upset at home by the Steelers in Week 1. And look how bad the Steelers played last week in an upset loss to the Raiders.
Josh Allen has yet to get going. He is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Washington's defense is good enough to keep him in check. Buffalo is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off a division win by more than 10 points. Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off a win. Bet Washington Sunday.
|09-23-21||Panthers -7.5 v. Texans||24-9||Win||100||47 h 37 m||Show|
15* Panthers/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Carolina -7.5
The Carolina Panthers have been as impressive as anyone through two games this season. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with a 19-14 win over the Jets as 3.5-point favorites and a 26-7 upset win over the Saints as 3-point underdogs.
That game against the Jets was misleading as the Panthers got off to a 16-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. They outgained the Jets by 129 yards. The New Orleans win was as dominant as it gets as they held the Saints to just 128 total yards and outgained them by 255 yards.
This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL in giving up just 10.5 points and 190.0 yards per game. Now they get to go up against a rookie quarterback in Davis Mills of Houston after Tyrod Taylor got hurt against the Browns last week. The Texans dominated the Jaguars with Taylor and were hanging tough against the Browns with him, but then it went south with Mills in their 21-31 loss.
Mills went just 8-of-18 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Browns with a 10.1 QBR. Now he is on a short week and will only get in basically one or two practices. This is a terrible spot for the Texans because of their QB situation, and I look for this dominant Panthers defensive line to get after Mills and make life difficult for him for four quarters.
This Carolina offense is humming now with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator, Sam Darnold at quarterback and a healthy Christian McCaffrey back at running back. McCaffrey makes all the difference for this team. He has already rushed for 170 yards and caught 14 balls for 154 yards through two games. Darnold is completing 68.5% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.
They should feast on a Houston defense that is allowing 26.0 points per game, 475 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Even the Jaguars had nearly 400 yards against them, and the Browns completed 19 of 21 passes against them while also rushing for 156 yards on them. Mills and the offense can't be trusted, and neither can this defense.
The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after going under the total in their previous game. Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss. The Texans are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road. Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games. This is simply a terrible spot for the Texans. Take the Panthers Thursday.
|09-20-21||Lions v. Packers OVER 48||Top||17-35||Win||100||142 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Packers OVER 48
This game has shootout written all over it Monday night. The Detroit Lions showed they are going to be an 'over' team in Week 1. They allowed 41 points and a whopping 8.0 yards per play against the San Francisco 49ers. But they didn't quit, scoring 33 points on their own after a big 4th quarter behind Jared Goff.
The Lions are going to have to play in shootouts all season because of their leaky defense. And things just got worse for them when they lost starting CB Jeffrey Okudah to a season-ending Achilles injury last season. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against this Detroit defense.
The Packers gave up 38 points to the Saints in Week 1. That's a Saints team that is starting Jameis Winston and without their best receiver in Michael Thomas. That was a very bad showing for the Packers defensively. It was also a poor showing offensively, but I have no doubt they will get it turned around in Week 2. There was clearly going to be some rust for them on offense after Aaron Rodgers sat out most of training camp. And that was a good Saints defense. This will be a much easier test for Rodgers and company this week.
Both meetings between the Lions and Packers were shootouts last year. The Packers won 42-21 at home for 63 combined points. Green Bay also won 31-24 on the road for 55 combined points. I think we are getting a discount on this 48-point total here Monday night.
The OVER is 7-1 in Lions last eight games following a loss. The OVER is 35-17 in Packers last 52 September games. The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six vs. NFC North opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|09-19-21||Saints v. Panthers +4||Top||7-26||Win||100||111 h 5 m||Show|
25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +4
Talk about an overreaction. The betting public loved seeing what the Saints did last week to the big bad Green Bay Packers. They beat them 38-3 in an upset. But the Packers had chemistry and injury issues coming into the season due to Aaron Rodgers sitting out training camp. It was more bad Packers than it was good Saints, especially with the Packers giving the game away with three turnovers.
The lookahead line on this game was a pick 'em. Now the Saints are 4-point favorites, a 4-point adjustment. This despite the Panthers winning and covering in a 19-14 win over the Jets, doing what they were supposed to do. And the Panthers led that game 16-0 so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
Sam Darnold was solid in his first start with the Panthers, and he should be even sharper in his second start under offensive genius Joe Brady. Darnold went 24-of-35 passing for 279 yards and a touchdown without an interception against the Jets. Having Christian McCaffrey back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He rushed for 98 yards on 21 carries, while also catching nine balls for 89 yards.
Speaking of injuries, the Saints are far from healthy. They are going to be without two of their best defensive players in CB Marshon Lattimore and DE Marcus Davenport. They are already without their best receiver in Michael Thomas., plus fellow receiver Tre'quan Smith is out as well. Starting C Erik McCoy went out last week and will miss this game, and this Saints offensive line will be up against an underrated Panthers defensive line that had 17 QB hurries last week. Jameis Winston just doesn't have many weapons right now, and he still needs to prove to me that he can be trusted to not turn the ball over.
Making matters worse is that the Saints have had eight members of the organization test positive for COVID. The total includes six offensive coaches, one player and a nutritionist. There will definitely be chemistry issues on the offensive side for the Saints, which is another factor working against Winston.
Sean Payton is 5-13 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Saints. They are getting outscored by 2.8 points per game in this spot. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. The underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the Panthers Sunday.
|09-19-21||Bengals +3 v. Bears||17-20||Push||0||111 h 5 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year. His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games. His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record. He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.
Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason. Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovered. Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon. But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.
I cashed in the Bengals last week as +3.5 home dogs to the Minnesota Vikings, and I'm back on them again this week as 3-point road dogs to the Chicago Bears. The Bengals led that game 21-7 in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. Burrow looked to be in midseason form, completing 20-of-27 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Mixon rushed for 127 yards and a score, and Chase went over 100 yards receiving in his first game in the NFL.
This is an improved front seven defensively for the Bengals as they held Dalvin Cook to 61 yards on 20 carries. They held the Vikings to just 3.0 yards per rush. That's important here because the Bears are going to be trying to run the ball, which is the only thing they did well last week against the Rams in rushing for 134 yards on 26 carries. But that's where the bright spots ended for the Bears.
They averaged just 4.7 yards per play compared to 7.7 yards per play for the Rams, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per play in their 34-14 loss. Andy Dalton was terrible and refused to try and stretch the field. He averaged just 4.4 yards per pass attempt, throwing for 188 yards on 40 attempts. More alarming may be this overrated Bears defense, which gave up 11.6 yards per pass attempt to Matthew Stafford. Burrow is going to have a field day against this defense, too.
The Bears are without LB Danny Trevathan, RB Tarik Cohen and NT Eddie Goldman. They could also be without T Jason Peters, who got hurt last week. There is just turmoil surrounding this team at the QB position with whether or not Andy Dalton should be the starter, and I just don't trust them right now.
Plays against favorites (Chicago) - after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 96-49 (66.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bengals are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 September games. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Bengals Sunday.
|09-19-21||Rams -3.5 v. Colts||Top||27-24||Loss||-110||111 h 5 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -3.5
The Los Angeles Rams were as impressive as anyone in Week 1. And they're a team I trust to carry it over into Week 2. They beat the Bears 34-14 at home. Matthew Stafford went 20-of-26 passing for 321 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover in his first start with the Rams.
This offense is going to be scary with how big of an upgrade he is over Jared Goff. The Rams averaged 7.7 yards per play on offense and held Chicago to 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining them by 3.0 yards per play. They had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and it will be dominant again this season.
The Colts are in a world of hurt right now. They lost their opener 28-16 at home to the Seahawks. They got a garbage time TD with two minutes left to make it look closer than it was. They managed just 16 points in Carson Wentz's debut against a bad Seattle defense. The Seahawks averaged 7.2 yards per play while the Colts managed just 4.7 yards per play, getting outgained by 2.5 yards per play.
Wentz has missed most of training camp and is rusty. Not helping matters is the cluster injuries along the offensive line and at receiver. They just lost tackle Eric Fisher to an Achilles injury last week. They are without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton. This offense is a mess right now, and there are significant injuries on defense as well. This team just can't be trusted early in the season until they show me something.
This is arguably the best team in the NFC West in the Rams in a division that went 4-0 last week with four blowout victories up against the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South that went 1-3 last week. And the one win was the Texans over the Jaguars in a divisional matchup, so they were guaranteed to have at least one victory.
The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Sean McVey is 8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Rams, and they are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game in this spot. This might be the public and square side, but it really will be as as easy as it looks in my opinion. Bet the Rams Sunday.
|09-16-21||Giants v. Washington Football Team -3||Top||29-30||Loss||-120||46 h 24 m||Show|
20* Giants/Washington NFC East No-Brainer on Washington -3
The Washington Football Team was a 5.5-point favorite on the lookahead line last week coming into this game. Now they are only 3-point favorites, so there's value here based off of that and a couple other reasons.
The big reason for the move was the loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick to injury early in their 20-16 loss to the Chargers last week. But Washington played well with Taylor Heinicke, who went 11-of-15 for 122 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 17 yards on three carries. I don't think he is that much of a downgrade, at least not as much as it is being made out to be.
Washington was an Antonio Gibson fumble as his own 4-yard line away from winning that game against the Chargers despite getting outgained badly. Washington's defense, which is one of the best in the NFL, held the Chargers to just 20 points and 5.4 yards per play. Washington averaged 5.3 yards per play to compare.
The Giants lost 27-13 at home to the Broncos as 3-point underdogs in their opener. Their offensive line, which is one of the worst in the NFL, was atrocious. They managed just 60 rushing yards on 20 carries and 3.0 yards per carry. Defensively, they gave up 420 total yards and 165 yards and 5.9 per carry on the ground, so the defensive front seven is a problem too.
That's where this game will be won. Washington has the best defensive line in the NFL and will dominate this Giants offensive line, giving Daniel Jones all kinds of issues. Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Washington will be able to run the ball on this weak New York defense just as the Broncos did, which will take some pressure off of Heinicke.
Washington wants revenge after losing both meetings with the Giants by a combined 4 points last season. But they shouldn't have lost either game. They outgained New York 337 to 240 in their 20-19 road loss. They came back and outgained the Giants 402 to 350 in their 20-23 home loss. It's revenge time here Thursday night on a short week, which always favors the home team. Bet Washington Thursday.
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders +4||Top||27-33||Win||100||91 h 40 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +4
The Las Vegas Raiders went 8-8 last season and nearly beat the Kansas City Chiefs twice. They made big improvements under John Gruden and got even better in the offseason. Look for a big effort for them on Monday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in front of fans for the first time, which will be a big advantage as this has been anticipated by Raiders fans since the move to Vegas.
The Raiders are loaded on offense and finished 8th in total offense last season at 383.3 yards per game. But the key is the improvement they will make defensively. They brought in one of the best coordinators in the game in Gus Bradley. They also added Yannick Ngakoue and Casey Hayward. And they spent five of their first six picks in the NFL Draft on defense.
The Ravens were celebrating a 20-0 preseason run. But it didn't last long because injuries have taken their toll on this team. They lost their top three running backs in Dobbins, Edwards and Hill to potential season-ending injuries prior to the season. They also lost starting CB Marcus Peters to a season-ending injury in practice this week. They have injuries at receiver right now as well and are a mash unit coming into the season.
Teams have plenty of game film on Lamar Jackson now to know how to stop him. Gus Bradley did just that a couple years ago when the Chargers upset the Ravens in the playoffs and Bradley was in charge of that defense that stopped him. The Ravens ranked just 19th in total offense last year and relied heavily on the run, ranking 1st at 191.9 yards per game on the ground. They only averaged 171.2 yards per game through the air. Without their top three running backs, it's hard to see them having nearly as much success this season, especially to start.
The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Raiders Monday.
|09-12-21||Steelers +6.5 v. Bills||Top||23-16||Win||100||94 h 19 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5
The Buffalo Bills are getting a lot of hype heading into this season after coming out of nowhere to make the AFC Championship Game last year. They went 9-2 ATS over their final 11 games last year and put up gaudy offensive numbers. So you're now paying a premium to back the Bills to start this season.
I did make a lot of money backing the Bills last year, and I am reasonably high on them. Just not this high. I like Josh Allen, but he's not going to have as big of a season as he did a year ago. And it just seems like everyone is sleeping on the Pittsburgh Steelers after a 12-4 season that ended in a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns after the game got out of hand due to turnovers in the playoffs.
The Steelers boast an elite defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 305.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring at 19.5 points per game allowed. That defense can carry them this season. Big Ben is motivated at 39 years old for one final Super Bowl run, and when he has been healthy he has been very good. He is also in great shape. He has a bunch of underrated receivers and tight ends, and now the Steelers should have an improved running game with the moves they made along the offensive line while also drafting Alabama RB Najee Harris in the first round.
Buffalo could not run the ball last year unless it was Josh Allen doing it. They will be one-dimensional and easier to stop because of it. They had a middle-of-the-pack defense last year ranking 14th in total defense at 352.5 yards per game. And this line should just be closer to Buffalo -3 when you factor in home-field advantage. I have these teams power rated similarly, so give the Bills 3 points for home-field advantage and that's what the line should be. So we are getting 3 to 3.5 points of value here.
The Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs, including 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs. You would have to go back a few years to find the last time the Steelers were this big of an underdog with Big Ben as their starting quarterback. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|09-12-21||Chargers v. Washington Football Team +1||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||94 h 18 m||Show|
25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +1
The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in Ron Rivera's first season. They did so with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for most of the season, and a hobbled Alex Smith for the majority of the rest of it. That's because they had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season.
That will be the case again this season as Washington is loaded on defense, especially up front with arguably the best defensive line in the league. They ranked 2nd in the NFL behind only the Rams in total defense last season, allowing 304.6 yards per game.
There's going to be drastic improvements on offense this season. They brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was a money making machine with the Miami Dolphins last year and proved he still has it. Studs Antonio Gibson (RB), Terry McLaurin (WR) and Logan Thomas (TE) are all back. They added in WR's Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries to give Fitzpatrick more weapons.
The Chargers are getting a lot of hype because of the rookie year that Justin Herbert had. He has some decent weapons, but he is working behind a revamped offensive line. Herbert and the OLine will have to deal with crowd noise this season, which they didn't have last year. And it will be a packed house in the nation's capital with fans rejuvenated for this team after they won the NFC East last year and their bright outlook.
I just like the chemistry for Washington to open the season with their staff and systems in place for a couple years now. The Chargers are going into this season with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. It is going to take them some time to gel. And I certainly worry about them at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, where Washington is going to have a big advantage here.
Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in the first month of the season, a non-playoff team from last season that won their final two games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Washington Sunday.
|09-12-21||Vikings v. Bengals +3.5||24-27||Win||100||94 h 16 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year. His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games. His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record. He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.
Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason. Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovers. Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon. But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.
Speaking of the preseason, the Vikings were terrible. They went 0-3 and scored just 13.7 points per game on offense while giving up 24.3 points per game on defense. You can't make a lot of of the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Vikings were previously great in the preseason under Mike Zimmer, so he clearly takes it seriously.
I'm just not a big Kirk Cousins guy, and until they move on from him I'm not going to trust their offense even though he has some decent weapons in Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. The big concern is a Vikings defense that took a huge step back last year. They ranked 27th in total defense at 393.3 yards per game and 29th in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game. They can only be better with improved health, but I don't think they will be any better than Cincinnati defensively this season.
This line indicates that the Vikings would be favored by 6 or more on a neutral field, and I just don't see it. These teams are much closer power rated in my book with a healthy Joe Burrow for Cincinnati. So getting 3.5 points with the Bengals in front of a raucous home crowd in anticipation of the return of Burrow is a great value here.
The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. Cincinnati is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 September games. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|09-12-21||Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52||38-13||Loss||-109||94 h 16 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Titans OVER 52
The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans will be two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season. The Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense last season at 396.4 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game. The Cardinals ranked 6th in total offense at 384.6 yards per game last year.
There's reasons to believe both offenses will be just as good if not better this season. The Titans traded for Julio Jones, and he and AJ Brown form one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL. The Cardinals signed AJ Green to pair him with De'Andre Hopkins, giving the Cardinals an elite duo themselves. It appears both Green and Jones have a lot left in the tank.
The Titans ranked 28th in total defense last year at 398.3 yards per game allowed while also giving up 27.4 points per game. They did nothing to improve their defense in the offseason and will be terrible on that side of the ball once again. The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense and the addition of JJ Watt won't do much other than provide name value.
The OVER is 22-7-1 in Titans last 30 games overall. The OVER is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games. The OVER is 9-1 in Titans last 10 home games against NFC West opponents. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-12-21||Eagles v. Falcons OVER 48||Top||32-6||Loss||-108||94 h 16 m||Show|
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Falcons OVER 48
I like the outlook of both the Eagles and Falcons on offense this season. But I expect these to be two of the worst defenses in the NFL once again this season. Atlanta gave up 25.9 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game last season. They ranked 29th in total defense. Philadelphia gave up 26.1 points per game last season.
The Eagles did get a spark offensively late in the year when Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, and that experience gained will help him a ton coming into this season. He led the Eagles for 1,312 yards of offense in his final three starts last year, which was 2nd in the NFL to only the Bills during that stretch. I like the talent on offense with RB Mile Sanders, young receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Raegor, and a pair of elite tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Speaking of elite tight ends, the Falcons have a pair now themselves in top pick Kyle Pitts from Florida to go along with Hayden Hurst. Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the NFL now too. The addition of Pitts will help ease the loss of Julio Jones, who just wasn't used right in Atlanta, was always injured and almost never happy here. So it's probably a good thing they moved on from him.
The Falcons should be improved offensively this season with head coach Arthur Smith running the show. He comes from the Tennessee Titans, where he served as their offensive coordinator and helped lead the resurgence of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. The Titans ranked 2nd in total offense and 4th in scoring offense last season.
Philadelphia signed an offensive mind in Nick Sirianni as their head coach. He served as offensive coordinator under Frank Reich over the past three seasons. Reich guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson. So you have to like the OVER when both head coaches are offensive-minded.
The Eagles have a terrible secondary that the Falcons should be able to exploit, and there's just not much to like at all about this Falcons defense outside of maybe linebacker. The conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Atlanta. The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|09-09-21||Cowboys v. Bucs -8||29-31||Loss||-109||30 h 39 m||Show|
15* Cowboys/Bucs NFL Season Opener on Tampa Bay -8
Home teams on Thursday night NFL season openers have gone 15-2 SU in the last 17 games. These teams coming off a Super Bowl win at home usually tend to play well in that first game back the next season. And that should be the case with the Tampa Bay Bucs, especially now that they'll have a big home-field advantage with a packed house of home fans.
The Bucs are primed to be one of the best teams in the NFL again. They return all 22 starters from last season, so the chemistry will be there. The Bucs started slow last year in Tom Brady's first season, but they kept getting better and better as the season progressed, culminating in a dominant win over the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They should pick up right where they left off.
Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys have a ton of issues they are dealing with right now. Dak Prescott is coming off a shoulder injury and didn't get to play in the preseason. He will be rusty. He'll be working behind a depleted offensive line that will be without Zack Martin, Brandon KNights, Josh Ball and Mitch Hyatt. Tyron Smith and La'el Collins are also battling injuries and questionable.
While the Bucs will get plenty of stops with their elite defense, the Cowboys aren't likely to get many, which is why I'm willing to lay the points here. Dallas gave up 29.6 points and 386.4 yards per game last season and did little to improve their defense on offense. Instead, they have put their money in their flashy offense at the skill positions. They aren't building this thing the right way.
Dallas went 0-8 ATS in the first half of the season last season. Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games with a total set of 49.5 or higher. The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Buccaneers Thursday.
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3||Top||9-31||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl 55 No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3
The Tampa Bay Bucs pretty much have every advantage in this game outside of the quarterback position. And while Patrick Mahomes can make up for a lot of other problems, I don't think he'll be able to overcome them in the Super Bowl and get the Chiefs to cover this 3-point spread.
You could also argue that the Bucs have the better offense right now. Since their bye week, the Bucs have the top scoring offense in the NFL at 34 points per game. The Chiefs are scoring 26 points per game during that same time frame. That's an 8-point margin in favor of the Bucs. It has been especially impressive watching the Bucs top 30 points in all three of their playoff games against very good defenses in Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay.
On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have the better defense. They rank 6th according to football outsiders while the Chiefs rank 18th. Just from a raw numbers standpoint, the Bucs give up 22.3 points, 330.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play. The Chiefs allow 22.4 points, 355.8 yards per game and 5.7 per play.
The matchup here that I think is going to make the biggest difference in the game is Tampa Bay's pass rush against Kansas City's banged-up offensive line. The Chiefs are now without their two starting tackls in Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, plus C Kilgore is questionable. The Bucs have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL led by DE's Pierre-Paul and Barrett. The Bucs sacked Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC Championship Game, and they will certainly be able to get after Mahomes too.
The injury news is much better for the Bucs. They are expected to have WR Antonio Brown, S Antoine Winfield Jr., LB Lavonte David and TE Cameron Brate available for this game as they are all listed as probable. S Jordan Whitehead is more on the questionable side, but having Winfield Jr. back is going to be huge. And keep in mind this is the first time a team has ever played at home for the Super Bowl, so there has to be some home-field advantage for the Bucs with the familiarity plus 22,000 fans in attendance.
The Bucs are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their bye week, which came late in the season. As stated before, they have been a different team since. So you can almost throw out that first meeting with the Chiefs in which the Bucs lost 24-27. They played about as poorly as they possibly could and still only lost by 3 points. They will have an answer for Mahomes and company this time around, especially with the advantages they have up front on defense against this Chiefs offensive line.
Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS when the total is 49.5 or higher this season. So when a shootout is expected, they have been up to the task. The Bucs are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play this season. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with only one win by more than 6 points during this stretch. Bet the Bucs in Super Bowl 55 Sunday.
Jack's Top 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets:
1. 2nd half more points than 1st half (-160)
2. Chiefs Under 3.5 Punts (-160)
3. Under 80.5 Combined Penalty Yards (+120)
4. Bucs Over 7.5 Players w/ Reception (-165)
5. No Score in the 1st 5:30 (-125)
6. Opening Kickoff Touchback (No, +200)
7. Chiefs to Commit Most Accepted Penalties (-140)
8. Bucs Over 1.5 Sacks (-215)
9. Fournette O 25.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
10. Watkins O 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
|01-24-21||Bills +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||24-38||Loss||-115||36 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5
Now that the line has finally gotten to +3.5 it's time to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills. I've been waiting patiently for them to announce that Patrick Mahomes would be playing to get the Bills at a better number. And now it's time to pounce on a Bills team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last three months, and certainly playing better than the Chiefs right now.
The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 30-32 at Arizona on a hail mary on the last play of the game. So, they've gone 11 straight games without losing by more than this spread, making for an 11-0 system backing the Bills here. They are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall with those eight wins coming by an average of 17.0 points per game.
This Buffalo offense is firing on all cylinders behind the play of Josh Allen. They are averaging 34.7 points per game in their last 10 games. Allen is more than capable of matching Mahomes and the Chiefs score for score. But what is getting overlooked here is just how much better this Buffalo defense has played down the stretch, and that is the X-factor. They are allowing just 17.1 points per game in their last eight games overall. They just held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 3 points last week, which is no small feat.
The Kansas City Chiefs are just barely surviving, but their luck runs out here. The Chiefs haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 6 points. You have to go all the way back to November 1st against the Jets to find the last time they covered a spread. They are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They've just been very fortunate in close games with each of their last eight wins coming by 6 points or less.
Now the Chiefs are dealing with an injury to their best player in Mahomes, and I'm not even talking about the concussion he sustained against the Browns last week. It's the foot injury that clearly hampered him the rest of the game after it happened, and it was the start of the Browns comeback. When Mahomes doesn't have his mobility, he's much easier to defend. And I see that being the case here for this rapidly improving Bills defense.
A big reason the Chiefs have struggled to put teams away is because they have been one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL. They are fine moving the ball between the 20's, but terrible at turning it into touchdowns. And the Bills have what it takes to buckle down and hold them to field goals when they do get in the red zone. Conversely, the Chiefs are terrible in the red zone defensively, and Josh Allen has been great at getting touchdowns and not turning the ball over when he gets inside the 20.
The Bills are 7-2 SU against teams with winning records this season. Yes, one of those losses came to the Chiefs 17-26 on October 19th, but that was a terrible spot for the Bills. They were on just five days' rest as the game had to be rescheduled due to COVID. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were on seven days' rest in that contest. It was a huge advantage for the Chiefs. The Bills have been a different team since in winning 10 of their last 11 games with their only loss by 2 points.
Now the Bills are in the favorable situation here having played on Saturday while the Chiefs played on Sunday last week. The Bills are the team with the extra day of rest, and they got to watch the Chiefs play on Sunday. That's a nice rest and preparation advantage for the red hot road team here.
The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on grass. These four trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Buffalo. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City. Take the Bills Sunday.
|01-24-21||Bucs v. Packers -3||Top||31-26||Loss||-125||67 h 14 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3
The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs down the stretch. They knew that their four previous NFC Championship Game were all on the road, which is a big reason they lost them. But they handled their business down the stretch to get this game at home, and now the fruits of their labor will pay off as they'll be going to the Super Bowl after a win and cover against the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Nobody has played better than the Packers down the stretch. They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.9 points per game. That includes their 32-18 win over the Rams last week in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers outgained the Rams 484 to 244 in that game, or by 240 total yards.
Many came into that game believing the Rams had the best defense in the NFL. Well, Aaron Rodgers and company did whatever they wanted in that game. They rushed for 188 yards and passes for 296 more. And getting the ground game going has been a big key to Green Bay's success down the stretch. They have quietly rushed for 120 or more yards in six of their last seven games. They also have one of the best defenses they've had in years, holding opponents to 22.8 points, 328.8 yards and 217 passing yards per game this season.
This will be the 3rd straight road game for the Bucs in the playoffs, which is always a tough situation. And it's a warm weather team here traveling up north for a game in the cold. Temperatures will be in the 20s on Sunday in Green Bay with winds around 10 MPH. I'm sure Tom Brady doesn't even like the cold any more after moving to Tampa Bay. And his arm strength isn't near what it used to be. The Packers have a huge edge at QB in this one.
I was on the Bucs last week against the Saints, but their 30-20 win was misleading. The Saints gave that game away with four turnovers. Brady did not look good at all as he went just 18-of-33 passing for 199 yards in the win. He will need to be much better if he wants any chance of competing with Rodgers and this high-powered Green Bay offense. And I just love this underrated Green Bay secondary, which matches up very well with these Tampa Bay receivers. There's a good chance the Bucs will be without Antonio Brown as well.
Green Bay is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. The Packers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. teams that outscore opponents by 6-plus points per game. The Packers are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Green Bay gets and extra day of rest here after playing on Saturday while Tampa Bay played on Sunday night. They got to sit around and watch the Bucs play, which is a nice advantage. Bet the Packers Sunday.
|01-17-21||Bucs +3 v. Saints||Top||30-20||Win||102||71 h 59 m||Show|
25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now reeled off five straight victories and their offense is playing at a level as good as anyone that's left in the playoffs. They are scoring 35.8 points per game during this five-game winning streak.
I was really impressed with what they did against Washington's defense last game. They put up 507 total yards on a Washington defense that is one of the best in the NFL, especially up front. If they can do that against Washington, they can certainly penetrate this overrated New Orleans defense.
The Bucs are also playing pretty well defensively in giving up 329.9 yards per game on the season. And now they will get back their best defender in LB Devin White, who leads the team with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. White had to sit out the Washington game, which is a big reason they actually somewhat struggled to stop Taylor Heineke and company. They could also get back their best run stuffer in DT Jeremiah Ledbetter from a calf injury. RB Ronald Jones could return after missing last week as well.
The Saints had some new injuries pop up in their win over the lowly Bears last week. RB Latavius Murray, QB Taysom Hill and CB Patrick Robinson all missed practice for a second straight day on Thursday. DE Trey Hendrickson, LT Terron Armstead and TE Jared Cook were all limited in practice on Thursday as well.
No question the Bucs are going to be the more motivated team here after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Saints, including their fluky 38-3 loss last time. I think we see an inspired effort from them similar to the one we saw from the Ravens last week, who were playing with identical double-revenge after losing to the Titans in the playoffs last year and in their first meeting this season.
New Orleans is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 playoff home games. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Only one of the Saints' last nine games has come against a team with a winning record, and that was their home loss to the Chiefs in which they were outgained by 126 yards and were blown out worse than the final score showed. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
|01-16-21||Ravens v. Bills -139||3-17||Win||100||49 h 35 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Bills AFC BAILOUT on Buffalo ML -139
I'm going to take the points out of play here and back the Buffalo Bills on the Money Line Saturday night. The Bills are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by Arizona. They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they have won seven straight SU with six of those coming by double-digits.
Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season. He has guided the Bills to an average of 36.7 PPG in their last nine games overall as this offense is humming as well as any offense in the NFL right now. And the Bills have played much better defensively down the stretch to live up to their potential. They are giving up just 19.1 points per game in their last seven games overall.
Allen and the offense will get theirs against the Ravens, and it's going to come down to how well the Bills stop the run. They played soft against the run against the Colts last week because they were up 14 in the second half and defending the pass. They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last seven games overall. And they have the speed at linebacker to contain Lamar Jackson.
This is a total different matchup here as the Bills can stack eight in the box to stop the run. Jackson can't beat them with his arm, and that's the knock on him. The Ravens are averaging just 155.9 passing yards per game in their last eight games. They have been held below 200 passing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season. So with Buffalo knowing it needs to stop the run to win this game, I think defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott comes up with the proper game plan to do just that. And you know if Buffalo gets ahead big the Ravens don't have the ability to come back.
Lamar Jackson has never played in snow and the conditions could really hurt him. He struggles to take care of the football as it is with terrible ball security. And temperatures are going to be in the 20's Saturday night in Buffalo with a 40% chance of snow and winds from 10-15 MPH. Allen is obviously used to playing in tough conditions dating back to his time at Wyoming. That's a huge advantage for the Bills in this one.
Baltimore is just 3-4 SU against teams with winning records this season. Buffalo is 6-2 SU against teams with winning records. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Buffalo being 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall applies here since we just need them to win straight up. Roll with the Bills on the Money Line Saturday.
|01-16-21||Rams v. Packers -6.5||Top||18-32||Win||100||45 h 54 m||Show|
20* Rams/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -6.5
The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the first round. And now they are going to pay it off with a dominant win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round Saturday.
The Packers have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.0 points per game. That includes their 40-14 home win over the Titans in the snow. And it is going to be cold, windy and there is currently a 40% chance of snow.
That's bad news for a West Coast team in the Rams that is used to playing in perfect conditions. We've seen Jared Goff struggle in the past in cold weather in Chicago. And Goff is far from 100% right now. The only reason he played last week against Seattle was because John Wolford got hurt. He came in and didn't have much on his throws as he is dealing with a broken thumb still. And Wofford has already been ruled out, leaving it all on Goff.
Goff completed just 9-of-19 passes against the Seahawks last week. And he isn't the only injury concern here. The Rams' best defender in Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury that forced him out of action in the second half against Seattle. He will play, but he won't be is usual dominant self. WR Cooper Kupp (knee) was held out of practice Thursday and is questionable. LB Terrell Lewis (ankle) has been ruled out.
With Goff hobbled and Kupp not himself, the Rams are going to struggled to keep up with the Packers on the scoreboard. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league with 70.7% completions, 4,299 yards and a 48-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He and Devante Adams have hooked up 115 times for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns. Aaron Jones quietly has rushed for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry. This is a Packers offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game on the season.
The Rams have really been held in check offensively down the stretch. The 30 points they scored on Seattle was fluky as they did it on just 333 total yards and an average of 4.9 yards per play. They were aided by a pick-6 early in that game. They are averaging just 20.2 points, 324.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last five games overall. That's not going to get it done against an improved Packers defense that allows just 334.1 yards per game this season.
The Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, winning five times by 10 points or more. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. This trend continues as the rested Packers put it on the Rams for four quarters, and Jared Goff and company have no answer. Take the Packers Saturday.
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||9-21||Loss||-119||69 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bears +10.5
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bears off their 16-35 loss to the Packers last week. They were in that game in the 2nd half down only 5 before the Packers took over late. But it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. The Bears actually outgained the Packers by 40 yards and held them to 316 total yards.
This Chicago offense has really come to life behind Mitch Trubisky down the stretch. They are averaging 30.2 points and 382.2 yards per game in their last six games overall, which have all come with Trubisky under center. Those are the kind of numbers that are going to make it tough for the Saints to put them away. And the Bears obviously have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 344.1 yards per game on the season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Saints, who are overvalued off back-to-back blowout wins over the Vikings 52-33 and Panthers 33-7. The Panthers had about five red zone trips end in zero points and turned the ball over five times. That was a hugely misleading final score, and it has provided us with some serious line value here on the Bears.
Consider that the Bears were only 4.5-point underdogs to the Packers last week and now they are 10.5-point underdogs to the Saints. That's a 6-point adjustment. Keep in mind the Packers beat the Saints earlier this season too, and the Bears have been competitive in every game outside of their two matchups with the Packers. They only have three losses by double-digits all season, and two were against the Packers. The other was against the Rams by 14, who were coming off a bye week.
Also consider that the Bears were 5-point underdogs to the Saints in their first meeting this season. They only lost that game 23-26 in overtime. So this is also a 5.5-point adjustment off that first meeting, which saw the Bears hang tough for four quarters and overtime, and I think they can hang tough again. Keep in mind that was Nick Foles at QB too for the Bears in that first meeting, and Trubisky is the better of the two quarterbacks, which has been proven here down the stretch.
The Saints have been choke artists in the playoffs in recent years. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 playoff home games, including 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games. They were upset by both the Rams and Vikings the last two seasons at home in the playoffs. Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the 12 wild card games over the last three seasons. Teams entering the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven instances in the Wild Card Round.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win over a division rival, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Bears Sunday.
|01-09-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8||Top||31-23||Push||0||48 h 8 m||Show|
25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8
The Washington Football Team gets overlooked because they have a mediocre offense. But they have a championship level defense, and that fact alone gives them a chance to pull the upset here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. At the very least they should stay within this inflated 8-point spread.
Washington has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games coming in. That's hard to do in today's NFL, and it just goes to show how dominant their defense has really been. They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, and the way to get to Tom Brady is with pressure, especially pressure up the middle. Washington can do just that.
Tom Brady has been awful in primetime games this year. He is 0-4 ATS in primetime games with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has an 8:30 bed time, which may have something to do with it. And the Bucs come in overvalued on a 4-game winning streak, but all four wins came against teams with losing records. Tampa went 1-5 SU against teams with records of .500 or better this season. The temps will be in the 30s at game time so this is also Brady having to go outdoors in the cold weather, something you don't want from aging quarterbacks.
Washington may be a losing team at 7-9, but they have been a different team down the stretch and with Alex Smith under center. They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their only two losses came with Dwayne Haskins as their starter. They are 5-0 SU in games that Smith has started to improve to 11-5 with Smith compared to 6-26 with all other starting QB's since he arrived in Washington.
The last seven teams that entered the playoffs with a record of 8-8 or worse have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS. That includes outright upsets by the two teams that had 7-9 records. These teams consistently come in undervalued due to their record. But as stated before, Washington has been a much better team down the stretch than its record would suggest.
Tampa Bay has a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball that is getting overlooked. LB Devin White, the teams's leading tackler with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss, will be out of this game due to COVID-19. I think his loss is a huge one, and it will allow Antonio Gibson to run the ball more effectively and take some pressure off of Smith.
Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in 12 Wild Card games over the last three seasons. Washington is 6-0 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win. Bet Washington Saturday.
|01-09-21||Colts v. Bills -6||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||41 h 59 m||Show|
20* Colts/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Buffalo -6
Nobody is playing better than the Buffalo Bills coming into the playoffs. The Bills would be on a 10-game winning streak if not for the fluke Hail Mary by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. But that loss may have been a blessing in disguise because the Bills have been dominant ever since.
Indeed, the Bills have won six straight games all by double-digits. They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. And this team continues to be undervalued week after week. They are lighting up the scoreboard with 37.9 points per game in their last eight games. Their defense is playing up to the level that it did last season. They are giving up just 18.3 points per game in their last six games.
Josh Allen is by far the superior quarterback in this matchup. I don't trust Philip Rivers to be able to match him score for score. Rivers is used to warm weather after playing in San Diego and also playing in a dome in Indianapolis. He will be out of his element here. Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the 20s around kickoff. I always like fading older quarterbacks with questionable arm strength like Rivers outdoors in the playoffs. We saw the Colts struggle outdoors early this season in elements when they lost 23-32 at Cleveland. They also lost outdoors at Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Colts have played the single-easiest schedule int he entire NFL this season. They played the 32nd-ranked schedule. Buffalo played the 13th-toughest schedule. So that disparity in SOS definitely favors the Bills. The Colts went 2-4 against teams with winning records this season, while the Bills went 5-2 against teams with winning records, including 3-0 in their last three with all three wins by double-digits over Seattle by 10, Pittsburgh by 11 and Miami by 30.
And keep in mind the Bills rested their starters in the 2nd half of that 56-26 win over Miami last week. They will now be the fresher team here, which is a big factor considering this is the first game of the Wild Card round with kickoff set for 1:00 EST Saturday afternoon. The Colts found themselves in a dog fight with the Jaguars last week. They led 20-14 late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars having the ball around the 50-yard line with a chance to take the lead.
The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Buffalo. Take the Bills Saturday.
|01-03-21||Washington Football Team -1 v. Eagles||Top||20-14||Win||100||103 h 31 m||Show|
20* Washington/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -1
Washington wins the NFC East with a win Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's safe to say they'll be max motivated. I don't think you can say the same for the Eagles, who were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-37 loss at Dallas last week. I always like fading teams the week after they have been eliminated from the playoffs.
The Eagles have now lost six of their last even games overall. Their injury situation is awful. They led 14-3 at Dallas las week before Fletcher Cox went out with a stinger. Dallas outscored them 34-3 the rest of the way. It's unlikely that Cox will be back this week, and he's their most important player on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run and getting after the passer.
The Eagles are also missing a handful of players in the secondary. The Cardinals and Cowboys have both torched their defense the last two weeks. The Cardinals had 526 yards against them, while the Cowboys put up 513 yards against them. The talent level they are putting on the field might be the worst in the NFL right now on the defensive side of the ball.
Washington is likely to get Alex Smith back at quarterback this season. Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter, and 6-26 with everyone else over the last few seasons. I don't think they would have let Dwayne Haskins go if they didn't know Smith would return this week. There's a good chance they get back their best receiver in Terry McClaurin from injury this week as well. And RB Antonio Gibson returned last week and is back to full strength. So the matchup is a good one for this Washington offense.
But it's the Washington defense that has me excited to back them again this week. They have held six straight opponents to 20 points or fewer. No defense is playing better than theirs right now. They give up just 21.0 points per game this season. They held the Eagles to just 17 points and 26 total yards in their first meeting this season in their 27-17 victory. They also forced three turnovers, and Jalen Hurts had three turnovers against the Cowboys last week. Chase Allen and company will make life difficult on the rookie Hurts in this one. And it helps that Washington now has some game film on him after starting the last three weeks.
Washington is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The only two games they lost came with Haskins as a starter, and they were competitive in both with a 5-point loss to Seattle and a 7-point loss to Carolina. They upset the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers with Smith at QB and I was on them in all three games. Even Taylor Heineke gave them a spark when he replaced Haskins last week, and they are good enough to win with him even if Smith can't go. I recommend betting this game early because when they announce Smith as a starter I expect this line to go to -3.
Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off an upset loss as a road favorite. Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards last game. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NFC East opponents. The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Take Washington Sunday.
|01-03-21||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||33-7||Loss||-114||99 h 39 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +7
The New Orleans Saints are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they would need a lot to go right and they know it. They'd need the Packers to lose to the Bears and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, which would put them in a 3-way tie with both. They would win the tiebreaker based on their record against NFC teams in that scenario.
It's just unlikely to happen, and I think with the Saints knowing it, don't be surprised if they aren't 100% 'all in' for this Week 17 game. They would be better off resting their guys and getting ready for the playoffs. I think this line is adjusted too much in the Saints' favor because technically they still have something to play for, but the reality is that they aren't likely to improve their seeding.
What we do know is that the Carolina Panthers show up every week for head coach Matt Rhule. Washington had a chance to clinch the NFC East last week, and Carolina played spoiler in a 20-13 victory. And now the Panthers have a shot to play spoiler here against a hated division rival and will be 'all in' for their final game of the 2020-21 season.
It's also true that Carolina is much better than is 5-10 record would indicate. Indeed, eight of those 10 losses came by one score. The only two blowout losses came in their two meetings with Tampa Bay. They only lost 24-27 to the Saints in their first meeting this season, so they already proved they could play with them.
New Orleans is getting too much respect off its 52-33 win over a Vikings team that appeared to quit last week, at least defensively. The Panthers will offer a lot more resistance here. The Panthers held the Packers to 24 points and 291 total yards two weeks ago and should have won that game outright. And last week they held Washington to 13 points and forced four turnovers.
Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater just keeps getting the money. He is 36-13 ATS in his career as a starter, including 24-5 ATS as an underdog. And the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs this season. This just goes to show that they come to play every week under Rhule, and that they have lost so many close games this season that they are consistently undervalued.
Injuries are starting to pile up for the Saints. They are without three key receivers in Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris and Tre'quan Smith. They just lost starting LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury last week. He was starting to play well after getting claimed from the 49ers. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 1 INT) will be out with COVID. Fellow S Marcus Williams (59 tackles, 3 INT), DE Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks) CB Patrick Robinson (2 INT) and TE Josh Hill are all questionable.
New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after outrushing its last opponents by 150 or more yards. Carolina is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that average 29 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings. The underdog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
|01-03-21||Falcons +7.5 v. Bucs||27-44||Loss||-120||6 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons +7.5
The Atlanta Falcons show up week in and week out since Raheem Morris took over. And they'll certainly show up in Week 17 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Bucs. They want revenge after blowing a 24-7 lead to the Bucs in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago. And they don't have to wait long to get it.
While the Falcons have lost four straight, all four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and three were to playoff teams. They only lost 16-21 to the Saints and had a chance to win the game on their final drive. They lost 17-20 to the Chargers. They lost 27-31 to the Bucs. And they only lost 14-17 to the Chiefs last week as double-digit underdogs. They had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime late, but their kicker missed the game-tying field goal.
What makes the Falcons so intriguing all of a sudden is that they have played some tremendous defense down the stretch under Morris, who is their defensive coordinator. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. And holding the Chiefs to just 17 points just goes to show how good this defense is playing right now.
The Bucs are overvalued off their 47-7 win over a Detroit Lions team that has quit and is banged up. Now they go from being 6-point favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago to 7.5-point favorites over them this week. That adjustment is not warranted considering the Falcons played them tough in that first meeting and only lost by 4 points.
And while the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are going to be without several key players in their defensive front seven. They will be without LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, DL Steve McClendon and DT Jeremiah Ledbetter. And I think this line is higher than it should be because Bruce Arians has come out publicly and said the Bucs are going to try and win and not rest starters. That has given us extra line value here. Don't be surprised if the Bucs do pull some starters in the second half of this one.
The Bucs are just 1-3 SU in their last four home games with their only win coming against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the 26-14 score would indicate. The Vikings left 10 points on the board with three missed field goals and a missed extra point. The Vikings outgained the Bucs in that contest as well.
The Falcons have lost just once by more than 7 points in their last 11 games overall. That was a 9-24 loss to the Saints in which they led 9-3 just before halftime before getting shut out the rest of the way. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7.5-point spread. Getting points with the Falcons has been a very profitable move. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|12-28-20||Bills -7 v. Patriots||Top||38-9||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Bills/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Buffalo -7
The Buffalo Bills want the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That would give them home-field advantage all the way until they have to face the Chiefs in the the AFC Championship Game if both teams win out. Adding to their motivation is that they have been the little brother to New England for a few decades. They would love to pull off the season sweep here in emphatic fashion.
Of course the Bills are going to show up for a prime time game on National TV. And of course they are going to show up with it being the Patriots. So motivation won't be an issue for them, and I expect them to continue firing on all cylinders as they have been for weeks now.
Indeed, the Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by the Arizona Cardinals on the final play of the game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six gmes overall with five wins by double-digits during this stretch. They beat the Broncos 48-19 last week, the Steelers 26-15 two weeks ago, the 49ers 34-24 three weeks ago, the Chargers 27-17 four weeks ago and the Seahawks 44-34 seven weeks ago.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level by leading the Bills to an average of 34.8 points per game in their last six games. And their defense is starting to play up to its potential now in holding the last four opponents to 18.8 points per game. They held the Steelers to 224 yards and the Broncos to 255 yards the last two weeks.
There's no way this pitiful New England offense is going to be able to keep up with Allen and company. They have averaged just 248.3 yards per game in their last four games coming in. They were held to 12 points against the Dolphins and outgained by 80 yards. They were held to 3 points and 220 yards against the Rams. And they were held to 179 yards against the Cardinals. They were also held to 291 yards in a misleading win over the Chargers. And now they are without their best CB in Stephon Gilmore, who would have been matched up with Stefon Diggs. Now Diggs, who has 111 receptions for 1314 yards this season, will have a huge game tonight.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Buffalo is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 road games. The road team is 21-8-2 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Bills Monday.
|12-27-20||Falcons +11 v. Chiefs||Top||14-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +11
The Kansas City Chiefs are overvalued due to their 13-1 record. I have been selling high on them for weeks, except for last week I had them when they covered as closing 2.5-point favorites over the Saints. And now this is a huge letdown spot off that win over New Orleans as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Falcons. Not to mention, they basically already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the AFC and a first-round bye.
The Chiefs have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have won all six games, but all six wins came by 6 points or less. They just don't keep their foot on the gas and they just seem to be going through the motions waiting for the playoffs to come. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Falcons pull the upset here, and at the very least this 11-point spread is way too high.
The Falcons continue to play hard for Raheem Morris. In their last seven games, they have either won the game outright or lost by 5 points or fewer six times. So they have been competitive in every game. The only exception was the loss to the Saints 9-24 in which they led 9-3 but fell apart in the second half. They gave the Bucs all they could handle last week in a 27-31 loss. That's a Bucs team that went on to crush Detroit 47-7 on Saturday.
The Falcons have a very underrated defense that has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall. They will be able to slow down the Chiefs here. And Matt Ryan and company should be able to keep pace as well. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their last seven games and are averaging 25.8 points per game in their last four.
Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 400 or more yards in three straight games coming in. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 16 games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Bet the Falcons Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bears v. Jaguars OVER 46.5||41-17||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5
The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now. And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.
The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games. They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory. And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week. In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses. They give up 30.2 points per game this season. The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.
The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week. I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one. Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season. It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.
The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite. The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-27-20||Bengals v. Texans OVER 44.5||37-31||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5
The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride. I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case. I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.
For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season. The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game. The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.
Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders. If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER. I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5. Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers. That has also provided us with some value on the OVER. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|12-26-20||Dolphins -3 v. Raiders||26-25||Loss||-101||35 h 52 m||Show|
15* Dolphins/Raiders AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Miami -3
The Miami Dolphins have been the gift that keeps on giving for me and my premium clients. They will continue adding to our profits on the day after Christmas here against the fading Oakland Raiders. The Dolphins are now 9-5 SU this season and 11-3 ATS, the best ATS mark in the NFL.
Better yet, the Dolphins are now 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs, tied with the Ravens for the final spot. They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now, especially knowing they have a difficult game at Buffalo on deck next week. This is a must-win for them and they will play like it.
The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.4 points per game allowed. That's what makes them so underrated. Now they have Tua at quarterback coming into his own the last three weeks. Hew threw for 296 yards against the Bengals and 316 yards against the Chiefs before completing 20-of-26 passes against the Patriots last week. And the Dolphins showed they could win that game on the ground with 250 rushing yards in their 22-12 victory.
The Dolphins will be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Raiders defense that gives up 30.1 points and 385.4 yards per game and just recently fired their defensive coordinator. It didn't matter much at all as they gave up 30 points and 402 yards against the Chargers last time out. And now after going 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, the Raiders have been all but eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for the rest the way.
The Dolphins were missing three of their best weapons in WR Parker, WR Grant and TE Gesicki last week and still found a way to win with their running game and a high-efficiency game from Tua. But all three were close to playing last week, so there's a good chance they get back a few of them this week. The Raiders have a worse injury situation as they are missing a handful of starters on defense, have injuries all over their offensive line, and now Derek Carr had to leave the last game with a groin injury. He may return this week, but he won't be mobile at all and will probably hurt the Raiders more by playing than help them.
The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses. The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 66 points. I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team in this one that has a lot more to play for. Roll with the Dolphins Saturday.
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -4.5||Top||20-12||Loss||-101||31 h 7 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Fading the 49ers has made me a lot of money this season. And I'm not about to stop now as they continue to be overvalued week after week, including here Saturday against Arizona in Week 16. The 49ers are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 8 points or more. The Cardinals should be at least 7-point favorites in this matchup.
The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs after three straight upset losses to Buffalo, Washington and Dallas. Now they are down to third-string QB CJ Beathard, who is 1-9 as a starter in the NFL, including 0-3 in three meetings with the Cardinals. And their laundry list of injuries is worse than any other team in the NFL, which is the biggest reason they have struggled this season to a 5-9 record after nearly winning the Super Bowl last year.
The Cardinals are highly motivated right now to clinch a playoff spot. They are 8-6 and currently in the final spot in the NFC playoff race. They would clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose to the Jaguars on Sunday. They have owned the 49ers over the years as they are going for their 5th season sweep in the past 6 years after winning 24-20 at San Francisco in Week 1.
Kyler Murray looks fully recovered from a shoulder injury that hampered him for a few weeks during a three-game skid. But the Cardinals have since won their last two with a dominant 26-7 road win over the Giants and a 33-26 home win over the Eagles. The sign that Murray is healthy is that he is using his legs again with 21 rush attempts combined in those two victories.
The offense was certainly hitting on all cylinders against the Eagles with 526 yards as they outgained the Eagles by 104 yards. They had 390 yards on a very good Giants defense, and they held them to just 159 yards and outgained them by 231 yards. Now the season-long stats for the Cardinals really show they are a dominant team outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game and outgaining them by 49.2 yards per game.
The 49ers cannot be trusted to hold onto the football. They have committed two or more turnovers in eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Beathard is a turnover machine as well and will be running for his life in this one. And this 49ers defense looked to kind of quit last week in giving up 41 points to Dallas. They are just playing out the string right now and disappointed they have to be in Arizona over Christmas instead of being with their family due to the COVID restrictions in Santa Clara.
Plays against underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons. Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.
|12-25-20||Vikings +7 v. Saints||33-52||Loss||-120||7 h 7 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
The Minnesota Vikings aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet. And until they are, I trust Mike Zimmer to have this team ready to go in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. After all, this is Christmas Day on National TV, so players will be up for this game to try and knock off the Saints. It's a Saints team they have quietly formed a rivalry with after meeting in the playoffs a couple times in recent years.
There's clearly value with the Vikings here. In fact, this is their largest underdog role of the season. They haven't been 7-point dogs or higher in any game this year. And in their two previous biggest dog roles, they lost in the closing seconds 26-27 as 6.5-point dogs at Seattle. They won outright 28-22 as 6-point dogs at Green Bay. And they deserved to cover had Dan Bailey not missed three FG's and an extra point in a 14-26 loss as 6-point dogs at Tampa Bay.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. But they have played better than that would suggest. In fact, the Vikings have now outgained seven straight opponents by an average of 63 yards per game. They have an offense that will keep them in this game with the Saints. They have averaged 407.3 yards per game in their last seven.
The Saints remain overvalued from a 9-game winning streak. But they have since lost their last two outright with a 21-24 loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites and a 29-32 loss to the Chiefs as 2.5-point dogs. They were outgained by 55 yards by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Then they were fortunate to even be that close against the Chiefs considering they were held to 285 yards and outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs. Kansas City also had a 34 to 15 edge in first downs.
Drew Brees looked to return too early from a rib injury that sidelined him for a handful of games. He completed just 15-of-34 (44%) of his passes against the Chiefs for 234 yards. It was all dink and dunk, and he clearly missed having Michael Thomas, who is on the IR. Not to mention he is without both Tre'quan Smith and Deonte Harris at receiver as well. The Saints are so thin at the position that they cannot be trusted to get margin here against a Vikings team that will keep coming due to their elite offense.
Minnesota has won three of its last four meetings with New Orleans. The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following two or more consecutive losses. They are winning outright by an average of 7.5 points per game in this spot. Zimmer is 14-3 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota. The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following an ATS loss. Minnesota is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss. Take the Vikings Friday.
|12-21-20||Steelers v. Bengals +14.5||Top||17-27||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals ESPN No-Brainer on Cincinnati +14.5
This line has gotten out of hand. The Pittsburgh Steelers are now laying more than two touchdowns to the Bengals, and it's time to pull the trigger on Cincinnati. The Bengals will bring a big effort here knowing this is a Primetime game with their division rival coming to town.
It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They are coming off a misleading 7-30 loss to the Cowboys in which they lost fumbles on each of their first three possessions. I think it's safe to say that's not going to happen again. And keep in mind they outgained the Cowboys by 37 yards in that misleading loss.
There has been nothing misleading about Pittsburgh losing its last two games to Buffalo and Washington. They lost 17-23 at home to Washington as 5.5-point favorites and 15-26 at Buffalo as 2-point dogs. Their offense is broken right now as they have failed to reach 50 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. And their defense is banged up as the losses at LB of Bud Dupree and Devin Bush have really taken their toll.
Cincinnati has actually been playing its best defense of the season down the stretch. The Bengals have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or fewer. And they just held the Cowboys to 272 total yards last week. Their defense can keep them in this game, and I expect their offense cant' be any worse than it has been in recent weeks. Ryan Finley started three games as a rookie in 2019, including a 16-10 loss to the Steelers. Getting a whole week of practice preparing to be the starter will help him succeed in this spot.
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games. The Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-20-20||Chiefs -3 v. Saints||Top||32-29||Push||0||74 h 2 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Saints Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas City -3
After failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games, it's time to 'buy low' on the Kansas City Chiefs as only 3-point favorites over the Saints. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL and should be favored by 3 or more against any team in the NFL.
The Chiefs impressed me last week as they managed to beat the Dolphins despite committing four turnovers. They had 448 total yards against a good Miami defense. I was fortunate to get the cover with the Dolphins +7.5 in that game as they kicked a FG with 16 seconds left to only lose by 6. Kansas City is now 12-1 this season with 11 wins by 3 points or more.
The Saints are overvalued after winning nine of their last 10 and covering five of their last six coming in. But keep in mind that nine of those 10 games came against teams with losing record, so they have been feasting on an easy schedule. They finally had their winning streak snapped last week in an upset loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites. They gave up 413 total yards to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
I know Drew Brees is expected to return this week, but I think he is coming back early from a terrible rib injury. He waited until his team finally lost and now is coming back. And now he won't have his favorite receiver in Michael Thomas, who has been place on IR and an ankle injury. Thomas was starting to really form a chemistry with Taysom Hill. He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL and without him I don't see the Saints being able to keep up with the Chiefs.
The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after having won four of their last five games coming in. The Chiefs are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Chiefs Sunday.
|12-20-20||Patriots v. Dolphins -1||12-22||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Dolphins -1
The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with one of those losses coming to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they covered. This team has been underrated all season and has made me a lot of money. And I'm going to continue to ride with them here against the Patriots.
The Dolphins are the team that has everything to play for right now at 8-5 on the season and not only alive for a wild card, but also the AFC East title. They have been winning behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that gives up just 18.8 points per game this season. And Tua Tagovailoa is getting comfortable in this offense, throwing for 296 yards against the Bengals and then 316 against the Chiefs in his last two games.
New England is 6-7 this season and basically eliminated from playoff contention. They had the wind lifted from their sails in a 3-24 loss to the Rams last week. And I question their level of motivation now this week here against the Miami Dolphins. I have no doubt the Dolphins will be the more motivated team, especially wanting to avenge their Week 1 loss at New England.
This Patriots offense is so pitiful that it cannot be trusted to do much against the Dolphins here. They are averaging just 230 yards per game in their last three games. They had 179 yards against the Cardinals, 291 against the Chargers and 220 against the Rams.
The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS when playing with six or less days' rest this season. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing Miami. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-20-20||49ers v. Cowboys +3.5||33-41||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Fading the depleted San Francisco 49ers here down the stretch has been a very profitable move. The 49ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Yet here they are overvalued again laying 3.5 points on the road to the Dallas Cowboys. I'll gladly fade them again in this spot.
The 49ers have been hit so hard by injuries all season. And I think a big blow that is getting overlooked here is Deebo Samuel's injury. Samuel is their best playmaker on offense, and without him their offense has simply been vanilla. He returned recently and performed well with 11 receptions for 133 yards against the Rams three weeks ago, and six receptions for 73 yards against the Bills two weeks ago. But he left early against Washington last week and they struggled offensively with just 15 points.
While the 49ers have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way, the Cowboys (4-9) are still alive in the pathetic NFC East. There is a good chance both the Giants and Washington lose this week as they are both nearly touchdown underdogs to the Browns and Seahawks, respectively. So this is a great opportunity for them to make up some more ground.
The Cowboys have gone 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall. They pulled the upset at Minnesota, nearly upset the Steelers, and they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. I like the momentum of this team right now and think they are flying way under the radar. I have the Cowboys lined as a favorite in this matchup given the motivation and the injury situation for the 49ers. So getting +3.5 at home here is an excellent value in a game the Cowboys should win outright.
The 49ers are 0-6 ATS vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game this season. They are actually losing by 13.6 points per game in this spot. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs. Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.
|12-19-20||Panthers +8 v. Packers||Top||16-24||Push||0||10 h 58 m||Show|
20* Panthers/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Carolina +8
This is the role I like backing the Carolina Panthers in. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs this season, while they are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. They have won four of those games as a dog outright. They also only lost to the Chiefs 31-33 as a 10-point dog. So they can hang with the Packers here.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Panthers, who have lost seven of their last eight straight up. But they continue to show up every week, and keep in mind that six of those seven losses came by only one score. So they have been competitive, and they will continue to fight hard for head coach Matt Rhule to close out the season. They are relishing this opportunity to face the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the Green Bay Packers and test themselves.
Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Packers, who have won three striaght and five of their last six. They failed to cover as a 9.5-point favorite at Detroit last week, and they should not be favored by 8 points here over a Panthers team that just recently beat Detroit 20-0 for their last victory. This line should be under a touchdown, and we'll gladly take the 8 points with the Panthers.
Carolina is just 4-9 SU this season, but in seven of those losses the Panthers have had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win or send the game to overtime. "It's definitely a hump that we want to get over," Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater said. "We are capable of getting over it, but we have to execute when that situation comes. And that starts with me being better in those situations."
The Panthers will get a big boost with the return of WR D.J. Moore after he missed the Denver game last week due to COVID-19. Moore has 50 catches for 924 yards and four touchdowns this season. He has been Bridgewater's go-to guy and makes a big difference for this offense. I don't think his return is being factored into this line enough.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent off two straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Green Bay) - off a divisional road win, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. As stated before, the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Roll with the Panthers Saturday.
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Raiders AFC West No-Brainer on Los Angeles +3
There's going to be some value with the Chargers here down the stretch due to their 4-9 record. They finally got a win Sunday over the Falcons to give them some positive vibes moving forward. And now they want to end their 9-game losing streak against AFC West opponents and get revenge on the Raiders here Thursday night.
The Chargers are so much better than their 4-9 record would indicate. All three of their AFC West losses this season have come down to the final play. They lost on Harison Butker's 58-yard field goal against the Chiefs, lost on Drew Lock's TD to K.J. Hamler and lost to the Raiders when Justin Herbert's TD pass to Donald Parham was overturned on replay. Of the Charger's 20 losses over the past two seasons, 16 have been by one score. They are simply unlucky.
The numbers show the Chargers are the better team. They are averaging 383.0 yards per game on offense and giving up just 337.1 yards per game on defense this season, outgaining opponents by 45.9 yards per game. The Raiders average 369.2 yards per game on offense and give up 384.1 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by 14.9 yards per game.
The Chargers were the better team in their first meeting and should have beaten the Raiders, too. Los Angeles outgained Las Vegas 440 to 320 in that game, or by 120 yards. The Chargers have by far the superior defense in this matchup. They have now allowed 351 or fewer yards in eight consecutive games coming in.
The Raiders are playing awful right now. They are 1-3 SU in their last four games and would be on a four-game losing streak if not for the hail mary against the winless Jets to win 31-28. Their defense is allowing 37.5 points per game during this stretch, which led to the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.
But it's not going to make much of a difference here with all of the key pieces the Raiders are missing on defense. They are without several starters including DE Clelin Ferrell, LB Nicholas MOrrow, CB Trayvon Mullen and S Johnathan Abram. They have allowed over 200 rushing yards in consecutive games against the Jets and Colts. And they simply cannot get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Justin Herbert is going to have a field day. He threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in his first meeting with the Raiders. Austin Ekeler is back healthy at RB and should have a monster game as well.
Plays on underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that is off a loss by 10 points or more are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983. The Chargers are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs. Bet the Chargers Thursday.
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Browns ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 46.5
This will be the 2nd meeting between the Ravens and Browns this season. I always like to look to the UNDER in the 2nd meeting between teams in a division rivalry because they are so familiar with one another. They are able to make adjustments from the first meeting, and those adjustments almost always favor the defenses.
Weather will play a factor here as well, which is a big reason I'm on the UNDER. It's going to be 30 degrees with 15 to 25 MPH winds are kickoff tonight in Cleveland. And we've seen how wind and cold weather has affected the scoring conditions in these Cleveland home games recently.
Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in Cleveland's last three home games. They lost to the Raiders 6-16 for 22 combined points, beat the Texans 10-7 for 17 combined points and beat the Eagles 22-17 for 39 combined points. The UNDER is 3-0 in Baltimore's last three road games with combined scores of 34, 40 and 33 points as well.
These are two of the best rushing offenses in the NFL as well. The Ravens average 33 attempts for 169 yards per game on the ground, while the Browns average 32 attempts for 158 yards per game. So both teams are going to run the football a lot, especially with the winds, and that will keep the clock moving and make the game fly right by.
Both defenses have been above average at stopping the run, too. The Ravens give up 112 rushing yards per game, while the Browns allow just 104 rushing yards per game. In their first meeting, the Browns held the Ravens to 107 rushing yards on 30 attempts. Cleveland had 138 yards on 27 attempts but fell way behind early. This rematch should be much closer, which will have both teams sticking to their running games.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Cleveland) - off an upsset win as an underdog, a top level team that wins 75% or more of their games are 70-29 (70.7%) since 1983. There's so much at stake here in terms of the playoff race that this game will be played close to the vest. Look for it to go well UNDER the number. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-13-20||Steelers v. Bills -2||Top||15-26||Win||100||12 h 23 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bills NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -2
The Buffalo Bills came back from their bye week pissed off from their hail mary loss to the Cardinals. If not for that play, the Bills would be on a six-game winning streak. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and playing their best football of the season. And now they are ready to prove they are Super Bowl contenders by knocking off the Steelers tonight.
The Bills came back from their bye and crushed the Chargers 27-17. Then they went on the road last week and made easy work of the 49ers in a 34-24 win as 2-point dogs. They racked up 449 total yards against a very good San Francisco defense. Josh Allen threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win. What more does this guy have to do to be mentioned among the best quarterbacks in the NFL?
The Bills are remarkably healthy right now due to that bye week. And their defense is getting back to being the same dominant unit that it was a year ago. And that's what makes this team so scary now. They have an elite offense and an above average defense now that they are healthy in the secondary on that side of the ball, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.
While the Bills are healthy, injuries are mounting up for the Steelers. They are extremely thin at LB now without Bud Dupree and Devin Bush, plus Vince Williams and Robert Spillane are out for this game. CB Joe Haden is out and CB Steven Nelson is questionable, leaving the Steelers extremely thin in the secondary and at linebacker. The Bills should be able to do whatever they want to against the Steelers here.
It's also a terrible spot for the Steelers. They had their bye week stolen from them early in the season, and now they are a very tired team because of it. They will be playing their 3rd game in 12 days here after playing Baltimore last Wednesday and Washington on Monday. They blew a 14-0 lead over Washington as Alex Smith diced up their secondary, leading Washington to a 23-17 victory. And I always like fading teams after they've had a long winning streak come to an end. Pittsburgh's perfect season is no longer, and I think they could have a hangover effect here against the Bills.
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five December games. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite. The spot, injuries and momentum all favor the Bills in this matchup tonight. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-13-20||Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5||33-27||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins are now 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have been the most profitable team in the NFL to back over the past two months. And it still feels like they are getting no respect here as 7.5-point home underdogs to the Kansas City Chiefs.
It hasn’t mattered whether it has been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua at quarterback. The Dolphins keep winning because they play team football and tremendous defense. They give up just 17.7 points per game this season and have forced at least one turnover in all 12 games. They just do everything fundamentally sound, which is the sign of a great head coach in Brian Flores.
The Chiefs continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year and with an 11-1 record. They have now gone 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Although they have won all four games SU, all four wins have come by 6 points or less. They have bene life and death with the Panthers, Raiders and Broncos during this stretch. And it’s not like any of those teams are any good.
It just feels like the Chiefs are going through the motions right now and just ready to get to the playoffs. They already have the AFC West locked up. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are still fighting to win the AFC East. They are just one game back of the Buffalo Bills for 1st place in their division. They are the team playing like their pants are on fire right now, not the Chiefs.
Kansas City is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in three consecutive games. Miami is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games overall dating back to last season. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Miami is 13-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last three years. Take the Dolphins Sunday.
|12-13-20||Vikings v. Bucs -6.5||Top||14-26||Win||100||91 h 21 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -6.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers really needed a bye last week after going 12 straight weeks without one. Now they’ll be rejuvenated to bounce back from two straight losses to the Chiefs and Rams by 3 points each. And a bye will help a team like the Bucs more than most just because they have so many new faces this year on offense for Tom Brady to try and form a chemistry with.
Now the Bucs take on a Vikings team that was very fortunate to win their last two games against the lowly Panthers and Jaguars. They needed a last-second TD to beat the Panthers 28-27, and they needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 27-24. That’s a Jaguars team that has now lost 11 straight. And don’t forget they were upset by the Cowboys the week prior as a 7-point home favorite.
This is a Vikings defense that Tom Brady and company should light up. Minnesota gives up 27.4 points and 382.7 yards per game this season. This feels like a game Kirk Cousins is going to have to be a gun slinger to try and keep up, and that’s exactly the type of game that I like to fade the Vikings in because Cousins is terrible when he has to do it all.
The key to stopping the Vikings is stopping Dalvin Cook, and there’s no team in the NFL better equipped to do that than the Bucs. They lead the NFL in rushing defense, giving up just 74 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. They also rank near the top of the league in total defense, allowing just 329.9 yards per game.
Plays on any team (Tampa Bay) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 YPP or more), after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-7 (83.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss as a head coach. Arians is also 21-9 ATS in December games as a head coach. Bet the Bucs Sunday.