Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-03-19 | East Carolina +11.5 v. Tulsa | 78-91 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on East Carolina + I really like the Pirates to cover the big number on the road against the Golden Hurricane. East Carolina is coming off an ugly 34-point loss at home to Houston, which is definitely playing into the favorable number here. No way should Tulsa be laying this many points with how they are playing. Golden Hurricane are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS last 4 and despite a 13-3 SU home record, they are just 7-9 ATS on their home floor. Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Pirates. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who are coming off a blowout loss by 20 or more to a conference rival are 139-86 (62%) ATS when favoring an opponent that is coming off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Take East Carolina! |
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03-03-19 | CS-Northridge +7 v. Hawaii | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night NO-BRAINER on Northridge + The Matadors will have no problem covering the spread against the Warriors in Saturday's late night action. CS-Northridge comes in off back-to-back wins and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Hawaii has lost their last 2 and are just 2-4 ATS last 6. Matadors won't be taking this one lightly, as they lost to Hawaii at home back in January. Revenge has been a great motivator for this team. CS-Northridge is 43-25 ATS last 68 road games when revenging a home loss. The Matadors are also a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a home win, while Hawaii is a mere 4-16 ATS last 20 at home in the month of March. Take CS-Northridge! |
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03-02-19 | Drake v. Missouri State -3 | 73-62 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Missouri Valley GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State - Love the value here with Missouri State at basically a pick'em at home against the Bulldogs. Drake is simply getting too much respect on the road. The Bears might just be 16-14 overall, but are a strong 10-7 in the Missouri Valley. Even more important is the fact that they are 11-3 at home, where they are winning by nearly 12 ppg. Drake has just 3 wins in their last 21 trips to Missouri State and have only covered the spread 5 times during this stretch. Bears have covered 4 of their last 6 when revenging a road loss and will add to that mark with an easy cover here. Take Missouri State! |
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03-02-19 | Northern Arizona v. Montana State -8 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Montana State - The Bobcats should have zero problem winning by double-digits at home against the Lumberjacks, making this an easy play for me with Montana State laying single digits. This is the ideal spot to jump on the Bobcats, who are undervalued after losing their last 2 on the road. The thing is both losses came as dogs and they were competitive in both games. Prior to that they had won 4 straight and come in having gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Montana State is the team you want to back off a loss, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 in this spot. The Bobcats are also 6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS last 10 at home after playing 3 or more consecutive games on the road. Take Montana State! |
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03-02-19 | Ohio +9.5 v. Akron | 73-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio + Really like the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. No doubt the Zips should be favored here, but they are simply getting too much respect. While Akron has covered 6 straight, they are just 2-4 SU during this stretch. Most of those have come as underdogs and it's a whole different game when you go into a contest expected to blow the opponent out. Keep in mind these two teams played in early February and Ohio was a 2-point home favorite, which means this line should be closer to Akron -3.5 to -4. Zips have only covered 2 of their last 7 at home against a team with a losing road record and are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Ohio! |
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03-02-19 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 148 | Top | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss/Arkansas UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Saturday's SEC clash between the Rebels and Razorbacks. The UNDER has been the smart play in recent games for both of these teams. Ole Miss has gone UNDER the total in 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. Arkansas has gone UNDER the total in 9 of their last 12. These two teams played earlier this season and combined for 151, but that was with both teams shooting over 80% from the free throw line and the Rebels score 84 on 48.4% shooting. Arkansas only managed 67 on 40%. Razorbacks offense just hasn't been great of late, but the defensive effort should be a lot better at home. Ole Miss is no where close to the same offensive team on the road. UNDER is 10-3 in the Rebels last 13 conference games and 8-2 in their last 10 games with a total in the 150's. UNDER is also 6-1 in Arkansas' last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-3 in their last 11 conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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02-28-19 | Washington v. California +13.5 | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cal + Great spot here to grab the points and back Cal as a double-digit home dog against the Huskies. No question who the better team is. Washington is 13-1 in Pac-12 play and the Golden Bears haven't won a single conference game. That's where the value comes in, as this is a game that the Huskies are going to have an extremely difficult time getting up for. Cal on the other hand is going to play their hearts out against the best team in the conference. It's likely not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset, but I really like their chances of keeping it closer than the number. Huskies are just 9-20 ATS last 29 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Cal! |
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02-28-19 | Washington State +9 v. Stanford | 50-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Washington State + The Cougars should have no problem covering the big number here on the road against the Cardinal. Washington State is just 4-10 in Pac-12 play and why they are getting so many points, but the Cougars come in playing some of their best basketball of the season. Of those 4 conference wins, 3 of them have come in their last 5 games. A stretch in which they have gone a strong 4-1 ATS. Two of those 3 recent Pac-12 wins have come on the road, as they won 91-70 as a 15.5 point dog at Arizona St and 69-55 as a 11.5-point dog at Arizona. Simply put, an outright win here is not out of the question. Take Washington State! |
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02-28-19 | Tulane +13.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane + I really like the value here with the Green Wave as a big road dog against the Golden Hurricane. Tulane is winless in league play at 0-13 and are just 1-12 on the road. The betting public will be running to the ticket window to take Tulsa and the books have adjusted accordingly. Tulsa has been overvalued a lot here of late, as they come in having failed to cover each of their last 3. They may also be without their leading scorer for this game, as DaQuan Jeffries (13.7 ppg) is questionable with a concussion. That would be a massive blow, as there's only 2 other players on the team averaging double-figures. Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allowed 80 or more points in their last game are 84-41 (67%) ATS when facing a team that has failed to reach 30 points in the 1st half in each of their last 2 games. Take Tulane! |
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02-27-19 | Cincinnati v. SMU +3.5 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU + Cincinnati continues to get too much respect from the books. The Bearcats have won 11 of their last 12 and are 23-4 on the season. The books have consistently inflated the number on Cincinnati and it's why they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. I not only think they are overvalued here on the road against SMU, but I think the Mustangs are primed to win this game outright. These two played at Cincinnati earlier this month and it went right down to the wire with the Bearcats squeaking out a 5-point win as a 11.5-point favorite. Take SMU! |
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02-27-19 | Georgia Tech +19 v. Virginia | 51-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB ACC Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech + This is just too many points for Virginia to be laying in a game that they figure to have a hard time getting motivated for. The Cavaliers are 24-2 and 12-2 in the ACC, there's not a lot more this team has to prove. Their only goal is to take care of business in these last 4 games before the ACC Tournament. We saw a very similar matchup for Virginia almost two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame as a 17-point favorite. They ended up winning that game by a mere 6-points (60-54). They also failed to cover a while back as a 17.5-point favorite at home against Miami, winning by just 10. Georgia Tech isn't a great team, but should put up a fight and are a good matchup, as they don't rely on the 3-pointer, which is what Virginia's defense is built to stop. Yellow Jackets are 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog of 10 or more, while Virginia is 0-7 ATS last 7 home games when they come in having won 15 or more of their last 20 games. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-27-19 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Penn State + Love the value here with the Nittany Lions as a home dog against Maryland. Penn State has been playing their best basketball of the season and the books are simply slow to adjust. The Nittany Lions have won 4 of their last 6 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS during this stretch. The simple fact that you have a team that is 4-12 in Big Ten play getting less than 3-points against a ranked opponent that is 12-5 in league play, really tells you everything you need to know. The books are begging for you to take Maryland. What people will fail to realize is that this is a really tough spot for the Terps, who are coming off a couple of hard fought wins over Iowa and Ohio State and have a massive revenge game on deck at home against Michigan (lost by 13 at Michigan less than 2 weeks ago). In the Nittany Lions last game they won 83-76 at Illinois and that's worth noting, as they are 10-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and 11-3 ATS last 14 off back-to-back wins. Terps have also failed to cover each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record. Take Penn State! |
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02-26-19 | Iowa v. Ohio State UNDER 142 | 70-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa UNDER These two teams combined for just 134 points in the first meeting this season, as Iowa won 72-62 at home. I'm expecting more of the same in the rematch. Iowa is coming off a couple of poor shooting performances at home against Indiana (32.8%) and Maryland (41.9%) and will face a Ohio State defense that is only giving up 64.3 ppg on 40.8% shooting this season. This is also a game the Buckeyes desperately need, as a win over a ranked team would be huge for their NCAA Tournament resume. They really have no choice but to rely on their defense, as they have just not been able to get the offensive side of the ball figured out. Buckeyes are shooting a mere 39% from the field over their last 5. UNDER is 11-5 in Iowa's last 16 following a win and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 6-2-1 in Ohio State's last 9 off a SU loss and 5-2 in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in the series at Ohio State. Take the UNDER! |
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02-26-19 | Dayton v. Massachusetts +6 | 72-48 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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02-26-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech + I absolutely love the value here with the Hokies as a decently priced home dog against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to pull out a 75-65 win and cover as a 5-point road favorite at Syracuse on Saturday without Zion Williamson, but I think it's a bit misleading, as the Orange shot a miserable 34.3% from the field. Williamson won't be available against the Hokies and I just think it's asking a lot for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back on the road without their best player. Keep in mind Duke only shot 44.1% from the field in the win over Syracuse and that was after they shot a miserable 34.7% against UNC at home when Zion went down in the first minute of the game. Hokies have really been playing strong defense and we know we are going to get everything they have on that side of the ball in this one. I not only think it allows them to keep it within the number, but to win this game outright. Take Virginia Tech! |
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02-25-19 | Kansas State v. Kansas -3.5 | 49-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Kansas - No hesitation take the Jayhawks as a short home favorite against red-hot Kansas State. I'm sure some will look to grab the points after watching Kansas get annihilated 91-62 at Texas Tech on Saturday, but that just makes me like them more. Any time a quality team like the Jayhawks gets embarrassed like they did by the Red Raiders, they almost always respond in a big way. On top of that, Kansas will be out for revenge from a loss earlier this month at K-State. Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off a road loss by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 ATS when that road loss is by 20 or more! Take Kansas! |
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02-25-19 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -9 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iowa State - The Cyclones should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against the Sooners. Iowa State has really let a couple of favorable matchups slip away in their last two games, as they have lost 73-69 at home to Baylor and 75-72 at TCU. I don't see the Cyclones making the same mistake here. In fact, I think we get one of the best efforts of the entire season from ISU tonight. Cyclones are averaging 80.1 ppg and only giving up 63.4 ppg at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by 4.3 ppg in Big 12 play, while Oklahoma is getting outscored by 3.9 ppg. ISU has covered 6 of their last 8 following a SU loss. Cyclones are also 12-3-1 ATS last 16 times they have hosted Oklahoma and the home team is 4-0 ATS last 4. Take Iowa State! |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State + The public perception here is that the Spartans don't have a chance of going into Ann Arbor and beating the Wolverines. A big reason for that is the fact that Michigan is 16-0 at home, but more so the fact that Michigan State is down two of their best players in Joshua Langford and Nick Ward. I think it's going to have the Spartans coming out with a huge chip on their shoulder and has also created some value with the line, as my numbers suggest this should be closer to a pick'em. Spartans are 12-4 ATS last 16 conference games, 10-2 ATS last 12 off a home win and 13-3 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record. Take Michigan State! |
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02-23-19 | Delaware +3.5 v. Drexel | 60-68 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware + Delaware should have no problem covering this small number at Drexel, as my numbers strongly suggest that the Blue Hens should be the ones favored. I just think we are getting a great number due to the fact that Delaware has gone just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Blue Hens are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games when failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8. Adding even more value here is a great system in play favoring a cover by the Blue Hens. Road teams who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when playing a marginal losing team. Take Delaware! |
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02-23-19 | Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +4 | 67-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Notre Dame + Virginia Tech continues to get way too much respect. While the Hokies come in ranked No. 20 in the country, this is not a Top 25 team right now. Virginia Tech just isn't the same team without Justin Robinson in the lineup. They were 17-3 with him on the floor and are just 3-3 without him. The even more telling stat is the Hokies 0-4-1 ATS record without Robinson. Notre Dame isn't a great team by any means, but are certainly a much tougher out on their home floor and have covered 3 of their last 5. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games. Hokies are 0-4 ATS last 4 off a game where they scored 60 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS last 6 when coming into a game having failed to cover 2 straight. Take Notre Dame! |
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02-23-19 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 65-80 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home. Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games. Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-23-19 | Marquette v. Providence +3.5 | 76-58 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Providence + Most are going to jump at backing No. 11 Marquette as slim road favorite against unranked Providence, but I'm not falling for the trap. The books are begging you to take the Golden Eagles, knowing full well that this is going to be a very tough spot for Marquette. The biggest thing is what's on deck, as the Eagles will travel to Villanova on Wednesday. Having already beat the Wildcats, Marquette will be in a position to put a stranglehold on the top spot of the Big East with another victory over Villanova. That game and the fact that the Golden Eagles defeat Providence by 11 on their home floor earlier this season, will make it hard for Marquette to show up here with a killer instinct. On the flip side of this, this game is one that the Friars will be 100% ready to go for. Not only do they want revenge from the earlier loss, but they haven't forgot about last year's home loss to Marquette, where Markus Howard torched them for 52 points. Friars are 14-4 ATS last 18 times revenging a loss where they allowed 75+ and a perfect 7-0 ATS at home the last 3 seasons vs top tier teams that are shooting 45% or better and allowing 42% or worse. Take Providence! |
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02-22-19 | Bowling Green v. Ohio OVER 143.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Ohio/Bowling Green OVER The books have completely missed the mark here with the total in Friday's MAC action between Bowling Green and Ohio. These two should have zero problem flying past the number set by the oddsmakers. The Falcons are a very strong offensive team, as they are averaging 78.9 ppg on the season and are at a tick higher at 80.2 ppg in conference play. I don't see them having any problem getting to the 80-point mark against the Bobcats, who are giving up 82.2 ppg over their last 5. I know Ohio's offense isn't the greatest, but they are averaging a healthy 75.8 ppg at home this season and the Falcons don't exactly play great defense. Bowling Green has allowed at least 67 points in each of their last 8 games. These two played earlier this season and combined for 145 and that was with Ohio scoring just 63 on the road. I think this time around they get into the 150's. Take the OVER! |
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02-21-19 | James Madison +11.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke -9 | 88-72 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Rivalry (UNC/Duke) NO-BRAINER on Duke - I'm laying the big number here with the Blue Devils at home. I got nothing but respect for Roy Williams and the Tar Heels, but I just think Duke is head and shoulders the best team in the ACC. Usually the Blue Devils would be the public play, but with how much people like UNC and how well they have been playing, the public will be heavy on the Tar Heels. I just don't think North Carolina has the fire-power to keep this game within single-digits. Duke knows they are a great team and because of that they are going to have some closer than expected games against bad teams. Simply because they don't give their opponent the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here. This is every bit a statement game for the Blue Devils as it is the Tar Heels. Last time out Duke beat NC State 94-78, but failed to cover as a 17-point favorite. That's fine by me, as the Blue Devils are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a home win by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 off a home win where they won but failed to cover. Take Duke! |
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02-20-19 | Northwestern +7.5 v. Ohio State | 49-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northwestern + Ohio State has no business laying this many points against Northwestern. The Wildcats are simply way undervalued right now because they have lost 6 straight. Most people just focus on the wins and losses and simply ignore that they have had some really tough losses during this stretch, including an excruciating 80-79 loss at Iowa and a 3-point defeat the next time out against Rutgers. I'm not saying the losing streak will come to an end against the Buckeyes, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Northwestern win here. Ohio State is 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games. All 4 of those wins coming against bad team and 2 of those were by 4-points or less. Last time they were at home they lost 63-56 as a 8-point favorite against Illinois and the time before that they barely beat Penn State by 4 as a 7-point favorite. Buckeyes are just a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games overall, while the Wildcats are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their previous 10 games. Take Northwestern! |
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02-19-19 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Penn State | 71-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska + I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Nebraska as a small road dog against Penn State. Most are going to want nothing to do with the Cornhuskers given their 2019 slide, but they finally are playing with some confidence. Nebraska followed up a much-needed win at home over Minnesota with a 9-point victory over Northwestern. As good as this spot may look For Penn State, were talking about a team that has won a mere 2 Big Ten games all season and lost outright the two previous times they were laying points at home. First it was a 7-point loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite, then it was a 4-point setback as a 6.5-point favorite against Rutgers. Cornhuskers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a conference win, 7-1 ATS last 8 off a home win and 9-1 ATS last 10 after a game where they held an opponent to 55 points or less. Take Nebraska! |
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02-18-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State + I don't think the Horned Frogs should be a favorite on the road against the Cowboys. I get that Oklahoma State is down and come in having lost 5 straight, but for the most part this team has been competitive. More than anything, TCU isn't a team I would be wanting to lay points with on the road, especially with the Horned Frogs unlikely to have one of their best players in Kouat Noi. Noi is basically tied with Demond Bane as the teams top scorer. Bane averages 14.9 ppg and Noi is at 14.8 ppg. What they really miss with Noi is his 3-point shooting. His 49 made 3-pointers are 10 more than the next best on the team and he's missed 5 games. The offense looked lost without him in Saturday's 9-point home loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point favorite. Noi is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Ankles typically take at least a week to recover from and if he's not good enough to go Saturday hard to imagine he will be on the floor Monday. TCU is also just 1-10 ATS last 11 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Oklahoma State! |
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02-17-19 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4 | 81-75 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Creighton - The Bluejays should have no problem covering this small number at home against Seton Hall. This is one of those quick rematches in conference play, as these two just played at Seton Hall on Feb. 9th. The Pirates squeaked out a 63-58 win at home, which really wasn't a surprise given the home/away splits of these two teams. This time I expect the roles to be reversed and I think there's a decent chance Creighton turns this into a blowout. Note that the Bluejays only lost by 5 at Seton Hall, despite shooting just 30.3% from the field. Pirates are allowing teams to shoot 46% against them on the road and Creighton is averaging 83.7 ppg on 51.6% shooting at home this season. Bluejays are 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-2 ATS last 13 at home after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 8-1 ATS last 9 at home off a road loss. Take Creighton! |
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02-16-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -3 | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
4* Tennessee/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky - I get that the Volunteers are ranked No. 1 in the country, but no way am I passing up on the Wildcats as a small home favorite in this one. There's no debating that Tennessee is one of the top teams not just in the SEC but the entire country. However, I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. The Vols are a perfect 10-0 in SEC play, but have not faced either of the two top tier teams in LSU and Kentucky. Their road games inside the conference so far have been against Missouri, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Texas A&M, who are a combined 12-43 in league play. At the same time, I think this Kentucky team is a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Sure they weren't as good as expected out of the gate, but they have been playing as well as anyone over the last 2 months. You also can't ignore the fact that the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when matched up against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. Take Kentucky! |
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02-16-19 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +2.5 | 81-73 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
4* Fresno St/N Mexico MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico + I think the books have made a big mistake making the Lobos a home dog. Fresno State might have the better overall record and a stronger mark in conference play, but New Mexico is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play well. That's evident by the fact that that the Lobos are a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against conference opponents, which has seen them win by an average of 13.4 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that New Mexico is 8-3 ATS last 11 as a home underdog, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark this season. It's also worth noting that the Lobos are off a 92-60 win against San Jose State, as they are 8-2 ATS last 10 off a win by 30 or more over a conference rival. Take New Mexico! |
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02-16-19 | William & Mary -4 v. Elon | Top | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary - I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered. Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary! |
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02-16-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -10.5 | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas - The Longhorns should have no problem covering this double-digit spread at home against the Cowboys. I'm expecting a very motivated and focused Texas team on Saturday. Not only are the Longhorns going to be ready to go after getting upset on their home floor by Kansas State, but they will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Oklahoma State. I think if Texas comes into this one with the right mentality, they are going to turn this into a blowout rather quickly. The Cowboys have been on a free-fall. Oklahoma State has lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall. Their last 3 games they have lost by 18 to Kansas State, 2 to TCU, 12 to Kansas and 28 to Texas Tech. Prior to the loss to K-State, Texas has really been playing well with 3 double-digit wins in their previous 4 games. The only exception a close road loss at Iowa State where they easily covered as 8-point dogs. Longhorns are 13-5 ATS under Smart off a home loss and 20-10 ATS under Smart revenging a road loss. Take Texas! |
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02-16-19 | Clemson +5 v. Louisville | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson + This is a great spot to grab the points and fade Louisville at home. This is one of the more difficult spots you will find a team. The Cardinals come into game off one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the entire season. Louisville had a 23-point over Duke midway through the 2nd half and somehow managed to suffer a 71-69 loss. That's now 3 losses in the last 4 games for the Cardinals, whose confidence has to be shattered after what happened against the Blue Devils. I not only think they will have a hard time covering the spread here against Clemson, I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Tigers won this game outright. Clemson got off to a slow start in ACC play, going just 1-5 in their first 6 conference games. They have bounced back in a big way, going 4-1 over their last 5 and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. Tigers are now 12-4 ATS last 16 after 15+ games vs a quality opponent that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off a road loss as a favorite are just 29-62 (32%) ATS since 1997. Take Clemson! |
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02-15-19 | Marist +4 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Metro Atlantic Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Marist + I love the value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Bobcats. Marist comes in off back-to-back wins and have covered 4 of their last 5, including a 78-71 win at Canisius as a 4-point dog. These two teams played earlier in the season and Quinnipiac won by 14-points. However, Marist shot 54% from the field and were only down 2-points at the half. They basically lost the game at the free throw line, where they went 7 of 14. Red Foxes are 34-18 ATS last 52 off a home win by 10 or more and the underdog is 8-3 ATS last 11 in the series. Bobcats are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs a marginal losing team (win percent 40% to 49%) and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-points at least 15+ games into the season. Take Marist! |
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02-14-19 | Delaware +2 v. Towson | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Delaware + This is a great spot to jump on the Blue Hens as a small road dog against the Tigers. My numbers suggest that Delaware should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Blue Hens are simply being undervalued here because they come in having gone 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6, while Towson is 5-1 ATS in their last 6. We will definitely take the points and it doesn't hurt that the Underdog has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series. The Blue Hens are also a dominant 18-7-1 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a losing home record, while the Tigers are a miserable 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take Delaware! |
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02-14-19 | Houston v. Connecticut +9.5 | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 1 h 3 m | Show | |
3* LATE INFO INSIDER No Analysis on late releases |
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02-14-19 | Drexel +1 v. James Madison | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel + Love the value here with Drexel as a pick'em on the road against James Madison. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won 73-68 at home. The Dukes were very lucky to lose by just 5. Drexel shot a miserable 20% from 3-point range (3-15). Expect much better shooting this time around, as the Dragons are coming off a game against Charleston where they shot 54% from the field for the game. Drexel has also covered each of their last 7 games and are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Adding to all this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Dukes. In games involving two marginal losing teams (winning 40% to 49%) the home team is a mere 28-58 ATS if they have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games. That's a 67% system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! |
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02-13-19 | Minnesota +165 v. Nebraska | 61-62 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Minnesota + I think the books have made a big mistake here making Nebraska a small home favorite. So much that I say forget grabbing the points with Minnesota and go for the much bigger payday on the money line. The Cornhuskers are a complete mess right now. Since going on the road and upsetting Indiana 66-51 back on Jan. 14, Nebraska has lost 7 straight games and in the process lost one of their best players in Isaac Copeland Jr. The offense for Nebraska has been downright atrocious during this run. All 7 losses during the losing streak have seen them shoot worse than 42% from the field, including a couple of games where they shot under 30%. It doesn't matter if you are home or away, if you can't score, you aren't going to win many games. Minnesota has lost 3 straight, which is playing into the value here, but those 3 are all excusable (@ Purdue, vs Wisconsin, @ Michigan St). Gophers are simply the much better team. Take Minnesota! |
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02-13-19 | Creighton v. Xavier +105 | 61-64 | Win | 105 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier + I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with Xavier due to the fact the Musketeers come in having lost 6 straight with the most recent being an upset loss at home to DePaul. Plus, they just lost at Creighton by 22 on Feb. 3. As bad as it's going for Xavier they should not be a home dog to the Bluejays. Creighton 1-4 in their last 5 conference road games and will be in the difficult spot here of playing their 3rd straight on the road. This is an Xavier team that has home wins over the likes of Georgetown and Butler, as well as a mere 2-point loss at home to Providence and a 5-point loss to Marquette. Musketeers are 21-7 SU in their last 28 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more and 8-1 SU in their last 9 at home off a home loss as a favorite. Take Xavier! |
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02-12-19 | Marquette v. DePaul +3.5 | 92-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on DePaul + I really like this spot for the Blue Demons. DePaul comes in off a come-from-behind 74-62 win at Xavier as a 4-point dog, giving them back-to-back wins since a hard fought loss at home to Villanova. Speaking of Villanova, Marquette just handed the Wildcats their first loss in conference play this past Saturday in a thrilling 66-65 win at home. That was hands down the biggest game of the season for the Golden Eagles and that makes this game against DePaul a huge letdown spot, especially since Marquette already beat the Blue Demons by double-digits earlier this season. Road favorites who are a top level team (won 80% or more) that are coming off a home win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 71-117 ATS in their next game if facing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). That's a 62% long-term trend that dates back to 1997 in favor of the Blue Demons. Take DePaul! |
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02-12-19 | Purdue v. Maryland +2.5 | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Maryland + This is the ideal spot to fade the Boilermakers. Purdue comes into this game having won 8 straight and are simply overvalued because of it. No way should Maryland be a dog on their home floor. Note that 5 of the Boilermakers 8 wins during this run have come at home and two of their road wins were against Penn St and Ohio St. Maryland hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play, as they come in a perfect 5-0. They are just 2-3 in their last 5, but two of those losses came on the road against Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Terps rebounded from the loss to the Badgers with 60-45 thrashing of the Cornhuskers in Nebraska last time out. No one expected Maryland to be as good as they are, which is why they are showing such great value against a team like Purdue. Keep in mind these two teams already played once this season and the Terps narrowly loss 62-60 on the Boilermakers home court. In the win over Nebraska the Terps held the Cornhuskers to just 21.1% shooting. Maryland is 32-13 ATS last 45 at home after holding a team to 33% or worse shooting. Purdue is also 23-42 ATS last 65 on the road after two straight games as a home favorite. Terps have also covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Take Maryland! |
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02-11-19 | Kansas v. TCU -2.5 | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
4* TCU/Kansas Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU - This is just too good a price to pass up on the Horned Frogs at home against the Jayhawks. Kansas is a team that gets all kinds of love, which is why they are still sitting at No. 13 in the country, despite the fact that they are just 7-4 in the Big 12 and have lost some big pieces to injury, including a season-ending injury to big man Udoka Azubiuke. They also are expected to be without second-leading scorer Lagerlad Vick, while Marcus Garrett is questionable after missing the last 3. Kansas has played 7 true road games and are 1-6 in those contests. TCU is 11-1 at home this season and are a perfect 4-0 at home. Horned Frogs also come in off an impressive 9-point win at ISU as a 9.5-point dog. Take TCU! |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -3.5 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Houston - Too much value here with Houston laying such a short number at home. The Cougars are a perfect 16-0 at home this season and are riding a massive 31-game home winning streak overall. Houston is outscoring opponents 77.4 to 59.9 on their home floor. Cincinnati is a quality team, but they are simply getting way to much respect from the books here because they come in having won 8 straight and gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Cougars are 42-22 ATS last 64 games at home as a favorite of 6 or less, 20-7-1 ATS last 28 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Houston! |
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02-09-19 | Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor - Love the value here with Baylor at basically a pick'em on their home floor. The Bears come in off a 12-point loss at Texas, but played well enough to win, the Longhorns simply couldn't miss (shot 55%). Baylor had won and covered 6 straight prior to that loss and I'm confident they return back to form. They have won 3 straight at home and are 7-1 ATS over their 6-3 start to Big 12 play. K-State has been playing well, but this is a big letdown spot for the Wildcats coming off a huge win at Kansas. Bears are 7-1 ATS lat 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog, 7-0 ATS last 7 after covering 4 of their last 5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Take Baylor! |
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02-09-19 | Duke v. Virginia -1 | 81-71 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Duke/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia - I just can't pass up a play on Virginia at basically a pick'em on their home court against Duke. The Cavaliers only loss this season was a mere 2-point loss at Duke back on Jan. 19th. You can bet that Virginia has had this one circled since that loss. I expect the very best the Cavs have to offer here. As for Duke, we all know how good they are, but I think they are getting a little too much respect here on the road in one of the hardest places in the country to get a win. Note that while the Blue Devils are 4-0 on the road in ACC play, those 4 have come against Wake Forest, Florida State, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The only one of those teams with more than 2 conference wins is FSU and Duke only won by 2 at the Seminoles. Take Virginia! |
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02-07-19 | Iowa v. Indiana -2 | 77-72 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana - Both of these teams are coming off big time wins the last time they took the court. Iowa defeated Michigan 74-59 as a 5.5-point home dog, while Indiana won 79-75 at Michigan State as a 14-point dog. I'm just a lot more confident with the Hoosiers carrying over that momentum on their home floor. Iowa has not been a great road team and I get that Indiana had lost 7 straight prior to that win over the Spartans, but there's reason to believe they can keep it going. They got two key pieces back from injury in De'Ron Davis and Devonte Green. Juwan Morgan did go down with a shoulder injury against Michigan State, but he was back practicing on Monday and is listed as probable. It's worth noting that Indiana comes in shooting 47.4% from the field on the season (51.9% at home), as Iowa is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 on the road against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field. Hawkeyes are also 6-16 ATS last 22 as a road dog and 3-12 ATS last 15 on the road overall. Take Indiana! |
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02-07-19 | South Florida v. SMU -5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU - This line really says it all. USF comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, while SMU enters having lost their last 2 and are just 1-4 in their last 5. You wouldn't expect the Bulls to be a 5-point dog here, but that just tells you how much the books not only like the Mustangs to win but to do so rather easily. The biggest thing to keep in mind with SMU's 1-4 stretch over their last 5 is just how tough the schedule has been. Out of the 4 losses, 3 were on the road against the likes of Cincinnati, Wichita State and Memphis. The only loss at home was to arguably the best team in the league in Houston. In their other 3 conference home games this season they have beat Tulane by 10, Tulsa by 20 and East Carolina by 28. USF's only road win in the AAC is against Tulane and they are the only team in the conference that has yet to win a game (just 4-17 overall). Bulls are 14-28 ATS last 42 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 points, while the Mustangs are 23-12 ATS last 35 as a home favorite and 12-3 ATS last 15 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take SMU! |
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02-06-19 | LSU v. Mississippi State -2.5 | 92-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Mississippi St - LSU had started out 7-0 in SEC play before losing a heartbreaker at home 90-89 to Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. Most will just assume the Tigers will return right back to their winning ways, but I think they struggle to bounce back against a very good Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in SEC play, but 3 of those 4 losses came by 5-points or less. They are also a dominant 11-1 at home this season, where they are scoring 83.9 ppg and shooting a ridiculous 50.4% from the field. Tigers are a mere 16-31 ATS last 47 off an upset loss to a conference opponent. Bulldogs are 34-17 ATS last 51 at home with a line of +3 to -3 and 14-3 ATS last 17 at home after playing their previous game as an underdog. Take Mississippi State -2.5! |
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02-05-19 | Kansas v. Kansas State -2.5 | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Kansas State - Love the value here with the Wildcats as a short home favorite against in-state rival Kansas. The Jayhawks are ranked No. 13 and fresh off a big home win against Texas Tech, but they have had their struggles on the road in true road games. Kansas is 1-5 when visiting an opposing teams arena, including a 1-3 mark in the Big 12. Kansas State comes into this one having won 6 of their last 7 and the only loss was out of conference and on the road. The Wildcats might not be ranked, but they are definitely playing like a Top 25 team and let's not forget this was a team that going into the season was expected to compete for the Big 12 title. K-State is 10-1 at home this season. They have covered 5 straight against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while KU is a mere 3-8 ATS last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Kansas State! |
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02-04-19 | Marist +4.5 v. Canisius | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Marist + Easy play on the Red Foxes for me. Canisius is getting way too much respect on their home floor. The Golden Griffins are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS at home this season. Marist is just 2-3 in their last 5 games, but all 3 losses have come by 5-points or less. The Red Foxes won't be overlooking Canisius, as they will be out to get revenge from a 3-point home loss back in early January. Marist has been very profitable against bad teams like the Golden Griffins on the road. The Red Foxes are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Canisius is also 2-9 ATS last 11 at home and 1-6 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Marist! |
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02-03-19 | Quinnipiac +1 v. Niagara | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Quinnipiac + Easy play here for me with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Quinnipiac will be out for revenge after a crushing 3-point loss at home to Niagara less than a month ago. Bobcats only lost by 3 despite the Purple Eagles shooting 52% from the field. Considering Niagara is only shooting 41.7% for the season and are allowing teams to shoot 47% against them at home, we can be confident there won't be a repeat of the first meeting. Quinnipiac comes in off a close loss at Canisius, which is a positive here, as they are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss. Bobcats are also 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road and 8-1 ATS last 9 road games after playing their previous game on the road. Take Quinnipiac! |
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02-02-19 | Cal Poly +8.5 v. CS-Northridge | 65-83 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Poly + Mustangs are being way undervalued here by the books, as Cal Poly should have no problem covering this near double-digit spread on the road against CS Northridge. Not the first time the Matadors have been overvalued at home. Northridge is a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and are 6-20 ATS last 26 at home when coming off a game where they scored 25 or fewer points in the 1st half Great system in play favoring the Mustangs. Road underdogs who have only won between 20% to 40% of their games and are off a conference win as a underdog of 6-points or less are 113-63 (64%) ATS when facing a team with a losing record over the last 5 seasons. Take Cal Poly! |
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02-02-19 | Pepperdine +2 v. Pacific | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pepperdine + Books have the wrong team favored in this one. Pepperdine should have zero problem leaving Pacific with a win Saturday night. The Waves just absolutely rolled Portland 83-58 as a mere 5-point road favorite last time out. That's 3 straight covers, giving them a 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games. Clearly the books are not giving Pepperdine the respect they deserve. Pacific is a mere 2-6 SU in their last 8 and have failed to cover 3 straight. Note that the two wins for the Tigers are both against Portland and neither came easy. For those that don't know, Portland is the worst team in the WCC (currently 0-8 in conference play). Take Pepperdine! |
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02-02-19 | Portland +8.5 v. Santa Clara | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Portland + Great value here with the Pilots as a road dog against Santa Clara. Portland has been absolutely money in this spot. The Pilots come in off a 83-58 loss at home to Pepperdine on Thursday. Portland is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games overall and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when playing on 1 or fewer days of rest. There's a great system in play favoring the Pilots. Underdogs coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 80-36 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in a matchup that features two average defense teams (allowing 42.5% to 45%). Take Portland! |
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02-02-19 | St. Peter's v. Manhattan | 50-64 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Money Line PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Peter's pk Really like the Peacocks in this spot. These two teams played earlier this season and the Jaspers squeaked out a 58-56 win, despite shooting 48% from the field and holding St. Peter's to 33.3%. The gap won't be that big the second time around and seeing how Manhattan is shooting 39.6% on the season, I think we could see the percentages flip-flop. Peacocks have covered 10 of their last 13 in conference play and are 8-1 when revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Manhattan comes in off a win as a dog against Fairfield, but that's actually a positive for us. Jaspers are 3-12 last 15 off a home win and 1-6 last 7 off an upset win as a dog. Take St. Peter's! |
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02-02-19 | Delaware +5 v. William & Mary | 63-84 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Small Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Delaware + William & Mary continues to get a ton of unwarranted respect from the books. The Tribe are a miserable 5-14 ATS on the season and come into this one having not covered a spread in 6 straight games. While William & Mary is a team you want to fade, the Blue Hens are the team you want to be backing in this spot. Delaware is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games with a high total between 140-149.5 and a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a road underdog of 6-points or less. These two teams also played earlier this season with the Blue Hens taking home the victory. Home teams revenging a same season loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are just 42-77 (35.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Delaware! |
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02-01-19 | Princeton -1.5 v. Columbia | 55-43 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Princeton - The Tigers should have no problem cashing in a win and cover here as a slim road favorite against the Lions. Princeton comes into this game rolling. The Tigers have won 5 straight and covered each of their last 3 games with a line available to bet. As for Columbia they come in off a win at home over Cornell as a favorite, but failed to cover the spread. The Lions are just 1-3 ATS last 4 lined games and have not been good in this spot. Columbia is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 1-4 ATS last 5 in league play. Tigers are 6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 in league play. Take Princeton! |
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02-01-19 | Quinnipiac +3.5 v. Canisius | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Quinnipiac + Love the value here with the Bobcats getting points against the Golden Griffins. Canisius is getting way too much love here at home, as they have shown to have little to no home court advantage. The Golden Griffins are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in home lined games this season. Another big reason I like Quinnipiac here is they will extra motivated to get revenge from a crushing 2-point loss at home to Canisius earlier this season. This is definitely the time to jump on the Bobcats, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win, 7-0 ATS last 7 road games with a total of 140 to 149.5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Take Quinnipiac! |
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02-01-19 | Brown -2 v. Dartmouth | Top | 60-58 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown - Easy play here on the Bears as a slim road favorite at Dartmouth Friday night. Brown is simply the better team, but the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses to Yale and the Big Green split their two games against Harvard, we are getting a great price on them. Yale looks like the team to beat in the Ivy League so far and the Bears played them tough in both meetings, losing by just 3 at home and by 8 on the road. Dartmouth had the big upset over Harvard at home, but let's not forget the Big Green were the consensus pick to finish last in the Ivy League and this is a spot they have struggled in. Dartmouth is a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against a top tier team that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Bears are also a strong 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road. Take Brown! |
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01-31-19 | Pacific +6 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 42-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacific + The Tigers should have zero problem covering here at Loyola-Marymount. The overall records make it look like the Lions are the far superior team, but I think this is a very evenly matched game. Pacific is 2-5 and getting outscored by 6.3 ppg in conference play. Loyola-Marymount is only 3-4 and are getting outscored by 4.7 ppg. The Tigers come into this game off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread, but that's actually a positive for us. Pacific is 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after failing to cover two straight. The Tigers are are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win. Lions are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Take Pacific! |
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01-31-19 | Cal Poly +7 v. UC Riverside | 71-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cal Poly + The Mustangs are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Highlanders. Cal Poly is way undervalued right now having lost 5 straight and failed to cover 4 in a row. On the flip side of this, you got UC Riverside having covered 4 of their last 5. Fading the Highlanders in this spot has been a wise investment, as they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games vs a team with a losing road record. It's also worth noting that Riverside beat Cal Poly earlier this season, which sets up the Mustangs in a very profitable spot. Road underdogs who are off back-to-back conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a loss as a favorite are 41-15 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Cal Poly! |
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01-31-19 | Drexel +5 v. William & Mary | Top | 69-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel + This is the perfect spot to jump on the Dragons as a road dog. Drexel hosted William & Mary earlier this season and got embarrassed 84-66. That's not a concern here, as the Dragons are a remarkable 25-9 ATS in their last 34 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more. The Tribe are also a team that you want to fade at home against bad teams. William & Mary are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in the month of January and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. The Tribe have also failed to cover 5 straight, while the Dragons are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Drexel! |
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01-30-19 | CS-Northridge +7.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge + The Matadors will have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog against the Titans. These two teams have pretty much identical records, but we are seeing the line heavily shaded in favor of Cal State Fullerton because they come in having won 4 straight and covered 3 in a row. I just think this line should be closer to 3, giving us more than 4-points in value on a team that can win this game outright. Adding to this, we see that the Matadors are a dominant 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January and are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a SU win. Take CS-Northridge! |
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01-30-19 | Canisius -113 v. Niagara | 70-78 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Money Line NO-BRAINER on Canisius - Easy play here on the Golden Griffins at a pick'em on the road against the Purple Eagles. Canisius comes in having won and covered 3 straight and are an absolute covering machine in this spot. The Golden Griffins are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning home record and are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 on the road. Niagara comes in off a 75-48 blowout win at home over Monmouth, but are just 2-5 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record, 1-4 ATS last 5 following a SU win and 1-5 ATS last 6 after a game where they covered the spread. Take Canisius! |
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01-29-19 | Wisconsin +115 v. Nebraska | 62-51 | Win | 115 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Money Line DESTROYER on Wisconsin + Forget the spread, I'm taking the Badgers on the money line at Nebraska. I just think the books are giving the Cornhuskers too much respect at home in this one. Nebraska is not playing well right now. They come in having lost 3 straight and just lost one of their best players in Isaac Copeland to a season-ending injury. Over the last 3 games the Cornhuskers have shot poorly from the field (42% or worse). Needless to say, Wisconsin is not the team you want to be going up against with a broken offense. The Badgers are known for their defense and come in having held each of their last 4 opponents to 41% or worse from the field. Cornhuskers have lost 8 of their last 9 when they come into a game having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and have lost 6 of 7 when coming off a conference home loss. Take Wisconsin! |
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01-27-19 | Marist +10.5 v. Rider | 85-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE WEEK on Marist + Marist should have no problem here covering as a double-digit road dog against the Broncs. Rider is simply overvalued right now. You can easily see that by looking at their last 6 games. The Broncs are 5-1 SU, yet are 2-4 ATS. They just had a 5-game winning streak snapped with a 6-point loss at Iona, where they were favored by 2.5. Marist is in a prime bounce back spot after an ugly 92-78 home loss to Quinnipiac and the Red Foxes are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 when coming off a double-digit loss at home. Rider is also a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won less than 40% of their games and 2-6 ATS last 8 games on their home floor. Take Marist! |
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01-27-19 | Iona +1 v. Fairfield | 68-80 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Iona + Easy play here on the Gaels at a pick'em against the Stags. Iona comes in off a 77-71 win and cover as a 2.5-point home dog against Rider and are 5-2 ATS last 7 overall. Gaels are also now 5-2 in conference play and that includes a 94-87 win at home over Fairfield. I just don't think the Stags have the talent to win this contest. Fairfield comes in having lost 4 straight. Each of the last two defeats coming at home. First it was a 5-point loss as a 3-point favorite to Canisius. Then it was a 9-point loss as a 2-point favorite against Siena, where the Stags managed just 48 points. Fairfield is 3-11 ATS last 14 off a conference loss, 2-6-1 ATS last 9 at home and a miserable 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Iona! |
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01-26-19 | San Francisco -2.5 v. San Diego | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco - Amazing value here with the Dons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Toreros. San Francisco comes in having won 3 straight. The last two in blowout fashion, beating BYU by 19 and Portland by 22. Dons are 14-3 ATS last 17 when off a conference win by 20 or more. There's also a big time system in play favoring the Dons to cover. Road favorites who are a strong offensive team (74-78 ppg) against a sub-par defensive team (67-74 ppg) are 53-22 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Take San Francisco! |
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01-26-19 | Cornell +4 v. Columbia | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Cornell + Love the value here with Cornell getting this many points. These two teams played each other last time out and the Big Red pulled out a 60-59 win at home. A pretty impressive victory given they were so sloppy with the ball. Cornell had 20 turnovers, wich was their most in a game since early December. I think they clean up those mistakes and not only cover the spread, but win this game outright. Columbia is just 2-10 ATS last 12 at home when revenging a loss of 3-points or less. Great system favoring a play on the Big Red. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are coming off a home win by 3-points or less and have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 161-97 (62%) ATS since 1997. Take Cornell! |
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01-26-19 | Portland +10 v. Pacific | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Portland + Great value here with the Pilots as a near double-digit dog at Pacific. For starters, this series has been owned by the road team, as the home team has failed to cover 5 straight. Portland is also out for revenge here, as they lost 65-57 at home back on 1/12. Good news is the Pilots are 7-0 ATS last 3 seasons in road games when revenging a same season loss. We also got two big time systems in play here. One favoring a fade of the Tigers and the other a play on the Pilots. First, home favorites of 10 or more off 4 straight games where both teams scored 70+ points are a mere 18-46 (22.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Second, Underdog of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost 3 straight by 15 or more points are 53-25 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Portland! |
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01-26-19 | Drexel +4.5 v. Delaware | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel + Too much value to pass up with the Dragons catching this many points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel comes in off back-to-back wins where they covered the spread and are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4. Delaware has dropped 2 of their last 3, including a loss at home to Towson as a similarly priced 5.5-point favorite. Dragons have covered 7 of their last 10 in conference play and Drexel head coach Zach Spiker is 11-2 in road games when his team is coming off a home win. Take Drexel! |
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01-25-19 | Rider -2.5 v. Iona | 71-77 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rider - Big time value here with the Broncs as a small road favorite against the Gaels. Rider was the preseason favorite to win the MAAC and have lived up to the hype so far. The Broncs are a perfect 5-0 in league play, which includes a 3-0 conference road record. Rider won by 20 at Niagara as a 4.5-point favorite, by 9 at Canisius as a 2-point favorite. I expect a similar type of outcome here against Iona. Gaels are a miserable 4-11 ATS last 15 games, 2-8 ATS last 10 after giving up 80+ points in their previous game and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after playing a game as a road favorite. Take Rider! |
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01-25-19 | Brown +8.5 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown + The Bears should have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog at Yale. The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here because they are a perfect 5-0 at home, enter on a 7-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS last 4. Just so happens these two teams just played each other in their last game on Saturday. Yale barely snuck out a 70-67 win. It's really tough to beat the same team twice in a short window like this, especially when you have a quality team like Brown. I actually think the Bears have a really good shot at winning this game outright. Either way they are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 road games off a home loss, 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 5-0 last 5 on the road overall. Take Brown! |
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01-24-19 | Loyola Marymount +5.5 v. San Diego | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB West Coast (WCC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola Marymount + I like the Lions to win this game outright, making them an easy play here as a decently priced dog. San Diego has been overvalued here of late, as the Toreros are just 2-5 ATS last 7. Last time out they got rolled by 17 points at St Mary's. They were also upset in their most recent home game, losing 76-71 to Pepperdine as a 8-point favorite. Loyola-Marymount comes in off a win over Pepperdine at home, but did fail to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That's okay, as the Lions have cashed 8 of their last 10 games when coming off a ATS loss. Lions are also 8-3 ATS last 11 road games, 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Loyola-Marymount! |
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01-24-19 | Siena +2.5 v. Fairfield | 57-48 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Siena + The Saints should have no problem cashing in a win here at Fairfield. Siena comes in off a win and cover at home against Niagara and won their last road game at Marist as a 3-point dog. The Stags on the other hand have lost 3 straight and really don't have much of a home court edge. We saw that in their last game, which they lost at home 73-68 as a 3-point favorite. Fairfield is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 home games and are 0-4 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Siena! |
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01-23-19 | UC Riverside +2.5 v. Cal Poly | 74-51 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Riverside + Great spot to back the Highlanders as a small dog against the Mustangs. UC-Riverside has covered 9 of their last 11 conference road games and are 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January. While neither of these teams have great records, the Highlanders are without a doubt the better team. Cal Poly is 0-3 ATS at home this season, they are 0-7 ATS last 10 off a conference loss by 10 or more, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 with a line of +3 to -3 and 0-8 ATS the last 2 seasons after 15 games when playing a team with a winning record. Take UC-Riverside! |
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01-22-19 | St. Peter's +3.5 v. Niagara | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on St. Peter's + Love the Peacocks here. St. Peter's should have no problem winning this game, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point dog. The Purple Eagles should not be favored. These two teams have played 4 common opponents. While the Peacocks are just 1-3, Niagara is 0-4. The defensive numbers really stand out, as St Peters only gave up 58.5 ppg in these 4, while the Purple Eagles are allowing 77 ppg. The Peacocks have gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 in conference play and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a game where they failed to cover. Niagara has failed to cover 5 of their last 7, are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 home games on Tuesday night and 4-18 ATS last 22 at home after playing 5 straight games as an underdog. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-21-19 | Marist -1 v. Manhattan | 62-46 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Marist - The Red Foxes should be a bigger favorite here given what we saw when these two teams met earlier this month. Marist crushed Manhattan 78-63. The Red Foxes shot 56% from the field, while their defense limited the Jaspers to a mere 40% from the field. I just don't think Manhattan has a big enough home court edge to close the gap. In fact, the Jaspers have just 1 win on their home floor this season. They just played 4 straight on the road and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 after playing 3 or more on the road. Red Foxes are also 4-1 ATS last 5 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Take Marist! |
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01-19-19 | CS-Fullerton +3 v. Long Beach State | 92-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Fullerton + This is going to look like an easy play on Long Beach State, as they come in 6-1 at home, while CS-Fullerton is a mere 1-10 on the road. The books have set the trap. The smart money here is going to be on the Titans. The 49ers have been getting all the calls the last couple of games, which is worth noting. Long Beach State is a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 at home after back-to-back games where they attempted 10+ more free throws than their opponents. Titans are also a strong 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take CS-Fullerton! |
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01-19-19 | Towson +6 v. Delaware | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson + Love the value here with the Tigers at this price. Towson comes in having lost 6 straight and failed to cover the spread in all 6. It's been some bad luck for the Tigers, as all 6 losses have been respectable. The most they lost by in this stretch is 12-points. Delaware is coming in off a win and cover at home against James Madison. They have struggled i this spot historically, going just 39-61 ATS at home at a cover. I think the Blue Hens will really struggle to give the Tigers the respect they deserve. Wouldn't be shocked at all if Towson won this game. Adding to this is a big time system in play on the Tigers. Underdogs who are coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 78-34 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games where you have two average defensive teams that are allowing teams to shoot 42.5%-45%. Take Towson +6! |
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01-19-19 | Virginia +150 v. Duke | 70-72 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Virginia + Forget the spread, I'm taking the Cavaliers on the money line in their huge road showdown at Duke. Don't get me wrong, I think the Blue Devils are a great team, but I think the loss of point guard Tre Jones is huge for this team. Lucky for them its not going to keep him out long. However, I think not having Jones really puts Duke behind the 8-ball in terms of trying to hand Virginia their first loss of the season. The Cavaliers are playing like a team possessed after being the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. I really like what I have seen, as they are a much better offensive team and still play lockdown defense. I look for the Blue Devils' young studs to struggle without Jones running the show. Take Virginia! |
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01-19-19 | SMU +150 v. Memphis | 61-83 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU + Everyone is going to be on Memphis as a small home favorite and you have to think the books not only like the Mustangs to cover but win this game outright. I see it the same way. SMU is going to be extremely motivated here having lost their last two, including a rare home loss last time out against Houston. The big edge here for the Mustangs is their defense. SMU is only giving up 66.6 ppg on the season and have tightened up the screws even more in league play. Opponents are scoring just 64.2 ppg and shooting 39.6% from the field against the Mustangs. Memphis on the other hand is giving up 78.7 ppg in league play. Take SMU! |
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01-19-19 | James Madison +4 v. Drexel | 68-73 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on James Madison + Love the value here with the Dukes getting points at Drexel. The Dragons are coming in off a home win against Towson, where they held the Tigers to just 32.4% shooting. That's a rare good defensive effort for Drexel. The Dragons had allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to shoot 48% or better. All of this sets up a great system to fade Drexel in this spot. Home favorites that are allowing teams to shoot 45% or better against them on the season are a mere 38-75 (33.6%) ATS after a game where they held a team to 33% or worse. Take James Madison! |
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01-18-19 | Marist +7 v. Iona | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Marist + Big time value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Gaels. Marist is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their last 6. Iona is also overvalued having won 3 of 5. Gaels covered last time out and are just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 after covering their previous game. Marist has had no problem cashing in a winning ticket when they visit Iona, as they are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 trips to face the Gaels. It's also worth pointing out that Iona comes into this game off a 88-70 road win at Canisius, which puts the Gaels into a very profitable system to fade. Favorites on Friday nights that are coming off an upset win as a road dog are a mere 18-52 (25.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marist! |
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01-17-19 | UC Riverside +10 v. CS-Fullerton | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE WEEK on Riverside + The Highlanders showing big time value here as a double-digit dog at Cal State-Fullerton. Riverside is 0-2 in Big West action, but have covered the spread in both games, including a cover as a double-digit dog at US-Santa Barbara last time out. Going back to last season the Highlanders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs conference opponents and have gone 3-0-1 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. The Titans have no business laying this many points. Last time out they lost at home by 17 as a mere 3.5-point dog to UC-Irvine. That's after losing by 11 as a 3-point dog at Hawaii. Fullerton is 2-8 ATS last 10 overall, 1-4 ATS last 5 at home and 1-6 ATS last 7 off a loss. Take UC-Riverside! |
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01-17-19 | Nebraska-Omaha -2 v. Western Illinois | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Omaha - The Mavericks should have no problem leaving Western Illinois with a win, making them an easy play for me as a small road favorite. Nebraska-Omaha comes in with a respectable 9-8 record and are off to a 3-1 start in league play. The Mavericks are an offensive force to say the least. Omaha has scored at least 83 points in 7 straight games, eclipsing 90 in each of their last 2. the Leathernecks are giving up 79.6 ppg and allowing teams to shoot 51.1% from the floor in their 1-4 start to conference play. Western Illinois simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep it close. Take Nebraska-Omaha! |
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01-17-19 | Manhattan +6 v. St. Peter's | 58-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Manhattan + We are getting a great price here on the Jaspers in Thursday's road slate at St. Peter's. It's been a rough go for Manhattan, who is just 3-13 on the season and 1-3 in league play, but it's not been a whole lot better for the Peacocks, who have won a mere 5 games. Road team has had the edge in this series, covering 4 of the last 5 and the Jaspers are a red-hot 6-1 in their last 7 trips to St. Peter's. Last year they won 68-57 as a very similarly priced 5.5-point dog. Take Manhattan! |
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01-17-19 | James Madison +4.5 v. Delaware | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + The Dukes should have no problem covering the small number here at Delaware, as I got them winning this game outright. James Madison comes in off two strong games, as they beat Towson 74-65 as a 4-point favorite and won 69-58 at home against College of Charleston as a 8.5-point dog. As for the Blue Hens, they just lost at College of Charleston by 13, snapping their 4-game win streak. I look for Delaware to struggle again here, as they are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home after going 4-1 in their previous 5 games. The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a quality team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take James Madison! |
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01-17-19 | Towson +4.5 v. Drexel | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson + This series has been dominated by the road dog. The road team has covered 8 of the last 12 and the underdog has cashed in 11 of the last 17. Towson is 4-1-1 in their last 6 trips to Drexel. I not only like them to keep it within the number, but I think the Tigers win this game outright. Thees are two of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic and there's just not any home court edge for a team like the Dragons. One area where Towson should have a big edge is on the boards. Tigers are outrebounding opponents by an average of 6/game. Dragons are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages +4 or better rebound margin and have lost these game by an average of 10 points. Take Towson! |
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01-16-19 | Houston v. SMU +1 | 69-58 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU + Too much value here with the Mustangs to pass up. Houston comes in with a 16-1 record and ranked in the Top 25. They started out the season 10-4 ATS and are simply way overvalued by the books right now. We have seen that inflation cost their backers in each of their 2 games, as they failed to cover in an outright loss at Temple and most recently as a 11-point home favorite against Wichita St (won by 9). SMU got off to a bit of a slow start, but come in having won 5 of their last 6, including an impressive 20-point win over Tulsa as a 8.5-point favorite last time out. The defense has really picked up for the Mustangs and we know we are getting their best on that side of the ball at home against a big time rival. Mustangs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 at home after a win and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home off a win by 15 or more points. Take SMU! |
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01-16-19 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -3.5 | 74-71 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt - This line tells you all you need to know. Vanderbilt is 0-3 in SEC play and is a 3.5-point favorite over South Carolina, who is 3-0 in conference action. Commodores only home game in SEC play was against Ole Miss, who at the time was playing out of their mind and I think they caught Vandy by surprise. That won't be the case here, as we know we are going to get the best the Commodores have to offer in this one. Even with that loss at home to the Rebels, Vanderbilt is still 8-2 at home, where they are averaging an impressive 86.1 ppg and shooting 50% from the field. Gamecocks are a mere 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs a team that's shooting 45% or better from the field and they are 1-4 ATS last 5 trips to face the Commodores. Take Vanderbilt! |
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01-15-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -6.5 | 49-51 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Akron - Great spot to jump on the Zips at home. We can bank on a big time effort here from Akron coming off back-to-back upset losses on the road to Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. They should have no problem covering this number against an Eagles side that has been bad on the road. Eastern Michigan is a mere 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS away from home. The Zips on the other hand are 7-1 at home this season. The defensive numbers really stand out here with the home/away splits. Eagles are giving up 80.7 ppg and 50.6% shooting on the road. Akron is allowing just 55.9 ppg and 34.7% shooting at home. Big time system in play here as well. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 105-58 (64%) ATS dating all the way back to 1997. Take Akron! |
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01-14-19 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +6 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Power 5 PLAY OF THE DAY on Pitt + This is a great price to get the Panthers at home. This is a much improved Pitt team from a year. The Panthers were 8-24 overall and 0-18 in ACC play last season. They are off to an 11-5 start and while they are just 1-2 in league play, they have home loss to UNC and a close road loss at NC State. The win was a victory at home over Louisville as a dog. Florida State is a really good team, but I think it's really asking a lot for the Seminoles to go on the road here and blowout the Panthers. This is an absolutely brutal spot for FSU, who just suffered a gut-wrenching 80-78 loss to Duke at home, where the Blue Devils won the game on a last second 3-pointer. Those are the kind of losses that are difficult to bounce back from. I just don't think the energy will be there for the Seminoles and wouldn't be shocked at all if Pitt won this game outright. Panthers are 11-4 ATS last 15 overall, 12-3-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss. FSU is 0-8 ATS last 8 as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS last 6 on the road after a home game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take Pittsburgh! |
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01-13-19 | Fairfield +3.5 v. Quinnipiac | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Fairfield + Like the value here with the Stags getting points against the Bobcats. Fairfield comes in off back-to-back home wins and while they are just 3-6 SU in their last 9, they have covered 5 of their last 7. The Stags are 37-19 ATS last 56 road games after playing 2 straight games at home and 40-23 ATS in their last 63 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Quinnipiac has won 2 of their last 3, but are just 15-30 ATS when they come into a game having done so. This series has also been dominated by the road team, as the away side has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Stags have covered 4 straight at Quinnipiac. Take Fairfield! |
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01-13-19 | Iona +3 v. Canisius | 88-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Iona + The books have the wrong team favored in this one, as my numbers show Iona should be a small favorite here. Gaels are just 4-10 overall, but are 2-1 in conference play and will have no problem picking apart a bad Golden Griffins defense that is giving up 80.6 ppg and allowing 48% shooting on their home floor. Canisius is 4-10 ATS last 14 games, 1-9 ATS last 10 off a SU loss and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home. Adding to this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Golden Griffins. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite have covered just 32.2% (29-61) of the time since 1997. Take Iona! |
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01-12-19 | Pacific -4 v. Portland | 65-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific - This is the perfect spot to jump on the Tigers as a small road favorite against the Pilots. Pacific should have no trouble winning this game, but are being undervalued by the books because they come in off an ugly 67-36 loss at Gonzaga, which was their 3rd straight overall. Note the other two were both against quality teams. This is also a big game for the Tigers, as they are still searching for that first conference win and while the same can be said about Portland, a lot less is expected of them. Pilots are a mere 4-10-1 ATS last 15 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-6 ATS last 7 after a SU loss by more than 20. Tigers are 4-1 ATS last 5 after scoring 50 or less and 5-1 ATS last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Pacific! |
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01-12-19 | Northeastern -1 v. William & Mary | 90-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Northeastern - The Huskies come in off a 81-70 win at Elon last time out and should have no problem securing another road win against William & Mary. The Tribe have a solid 5-3 SU record over their last 8, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. The books have tipped their hand in recent meetings between these two, as the favorite is 7-3 ATS last 10 overall. Key here will be defense or the lack of it from William & Mary. The Tribe are allowing 80 ppg, as opposing teams are shooting 47% from the field and 38% from deep against them this season. It's also worth pointing out that the Huskies are 19-8 ATS last 27 on the road after a conference road game and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 on the road with a line of +3 to -3. Take Northeastern! |
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01-12-19 | Towson +5 v. James Madison | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH BEST BET on Towson + The books have completely missed the mark here with the Tigers as a 5-point road dog. My numbers show this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em. James Madison has the better record, but that's simply because they played the much easier non-conference schedule. The Dukes won and covered their last time out, but are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a game where they covered. James Madison is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Towson! |
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01-12-19 | TCU v. Oklahoma -4 | 74-76 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma - Oklahoma should have no problem covering this short number at home against TCU. The Sooners are showing some value here after starting out 1-2 in Big 12 play. They key is both losses came on the road in arguably the two toughest venues in the Big 12 at Kansas and Texas Tech. Both of which the Sooners could have easily won with a couple more breaks going their way at the end of the game. I look for Oklahoma to come out firing here at home against the Horned Frogs. The Sooners are a perfect 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in their 6 home games, where they are outscoring teams 78 to 62. TCU is a quality team, but that 12-2 record has them overvalued here on the road. They just lost at Kansas last time out 77-68, failing to cover as a mere 6.5-point favorite. Sooners are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs a team with a winning record, while TCU is 1-5 ATS last 6 after a failed cover. Take Oklahoma! |