Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat -11.5 | 93-86 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -
The Chicago Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. They pulled off a surprise upset over Brooklyn just two days ago and now they will face a well-rested Miami Heat team. The Heat locked up their opening series back on April 28th and that extra rest will make a big difference in today |
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05-05-13 | INDIANA GM1 v. NEW YORK GM1 -5.5 | 102-95 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on New York Knicks
Indiana is 0-7 ATS this season when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points. The Pacers have been horrible on the road earning a 20-23 straight up record. Offensively they average a mere 91 points per game while the defense is allowing 91.3 points on the road. They face a Knicks team that has seen no shortage of offense on their home court averaging 101.5 points per game. Obviously as we enter the second round of the NBA playoffs the teams are facing better competition. New York will be one of the toughest teams the Pacers have faced on the road. The Knicks record at home is an impressive 33-11 straight up and 26-18 against the spread. New York struggled with Boston because after going up 3-0 they began to look past their opponent. That will not happen with the Pacers as the Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. With the style of offense run by New York is is really no surprise that Woodson is 17-6 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game as the coach of New York. I expect this game to get ugly early for the Pacers as the Knicks pick up a big win to open this series. |
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05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 v. BROOKLYN GM7 UNDER 182 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER
With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons. Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight |
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05-03-13 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM6 v. HOUSTON GM6 -1 | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Houston Rockets -
The injury to Russell Westbrook has proved to be fatal for the Thunder. Houston has picked up wins in the last two games and they should have no problem evening the series to 3-3 on their home court tonight. Houston is 30-13 straight up at home averaging 108.1 points per game. The Thunder like to turn games into a shootout which plays perfectly to Houston |
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05-03-13 | LA CLIPPERS GM6 +6.5 v. MEMPHIS GM6 | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +
The Clippers should not need any more motivation than they already have after dropping three straight games to Memphis. They are 18-7 ATS over the last two seasons when playing with double revenge, having 2 or more consecutive losses against their opponent. They have been embarrassed in three straight games and I expect to see them come out and make a statement in today |
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05-02-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER
Brooklyn is 19-7 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days while Chicago is 13-5 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The fact that this game is being played in Chicago should also help the total. The Bulls have allowed a mere 91.5 points per game at home this season. The first game played in Chicago ended with a 76-79 final score staying well under the total of 182 points. The second game played at Chicago went way over the total due to the game extending out into triple overtime. The total on that game was set at 176.5 points and it seems like a much more appropriate total for this game over the 184 it is set at today. Neither team has been spectacular on offense with the Nets averaging 96.6 points per game on the road and the Bulls averaging just 93.7 points at home. After Chicago was blown out to the tune of 110-91 in the last game I expect to see them make a conscious effort to play better defense. They should have a much easier time controlling the pace of this game playing on their home court which makes the under the value play. |
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05-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7 | 83-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Indiana Pacers -
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most dangerous teams in the playoffs when playing at home. They have a 32-11 straight up record and the Pacers are 24-19 ATS. They swept Atlanta with a pair of blowouts during the first two games of the series. That trend should continue today considering how bad Atlanta has looked on the road this year. Indiana has held opponents to 90.1 points per game at home while the offense scores and average of 98.2 points per game. They face an Atlanta offense that is average at best when on the road, scoring 96.4 points per game while the defense is allowing 97.4 per game. The Hawks have not found a way to stop Paul George and George Hill as both players led the Pacers in scoring in the first two games of the series. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and their defense plays so well at home it |
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04-30-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -7.5 | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets -
Denver is 17-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are scoring 102 points per game or more against a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games. This system is 63-32 (66%) ATS since 1996. The Nuggets are playing in a must win situation tonight so there is no way they will take their foot off the gas. They average 108.4 points per game at home and pull in 54 rebounds per game. They also have one of the best home court records in the league at 39-4 straight up and 28-15 ATS. With Denver playing to keep their postseason dreams alive I think they come out and play aggressive with the Warriors in front of their home crowd tonight. The Warriors have a losing record on the road this season at 20-23 and their win over Denver on April 23rd was due to shooting almost 65% from the field. That is unlikely to occur again so the Nuggets should take this one by a large margin. |
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04-29-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 180.5 | 91-110 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
3* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Nets UNDER
If not for triple overtime in the last game, the series between the Bulls and Nets has seen very little offensive production. The under is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 road games and 31-14 in their last 45 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In the last two games played at Brooklyn the Bulls were held to 90 points or less. The series is back in Brooklyn for today's game and should play out very similar to those first two games. The extra rest that comes in the post season can be a big help when it comes to playing defense. This matchup calls into a system to play on the under when one of the teams is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and playing against another team with a winning record. This system is 226-159 (59%) to the under for the last 5 seasons. Nets Head Coach P.J. Carlesimo is 37-17 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1996. Tom Thibodeau is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more as the coach of Chicago. With the day off coming into this game I expect both teams to step up their defensive efforts and that will keep this game under the total. |
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04-28-13 | Denver Nuggets -1.5 v. Golden State Warriors | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Denver Nuggets -
The Nuggets style of playing small and running has worked well all season. They know they are in a must win situation tonight because they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in the series. The Warriors have several key injuries that will catch up with them today. David Lee is out with a season ending hip injury. Stephen Curry has stepped up his offensive production, but he is playing with a bad ankle that was sprained late in the second game of the series. After the two point thriller in the third game of the series there is a favorable situation for the road team. You should play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more and they are a well rested team playing 6 or less games in the last 14 days. This system is 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Warriors have averaged 58.5% shooting in the last two games. Even the best shooting teams in the league can not continue at that pace for long. The Nuggets are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 1 day of rest. They are playing in a must win situation and should pick up a win today. |
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04-27-13 | INDIANA GM3 v. ATLANTA GM3 -2.5 | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks are getting a lot of respect being favored in this game after starting out 0-2 to the Pacers. They have certainly earned that respect with a 25-16 record at home. The Pacers on the other hand have had their challenges on the road ending the regular season with a losing record of 19-21. Most of the Pacers struggles on the road this season have come because of poor offensive play. There defense has been respectable holding opponents to 91.5 points per game but the offense has scored an average of just 91.8 points per game. Those numbers are a recipe for disaster considering the Hawks are naturally one of the better teams the Pacers have faced this season. Indiana is 5-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the favorite is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings and when playing at Atlanta the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The Hawks should have no problem picking up their first win in the series on their home court today. |
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04-27-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 178 | 134-142 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
4* Total No Brainer on Bulls/Nets UNDER
After Thursday's game between these teams it is obvious that both the Bulls and the Nets are struggling to put points on the board this postseason. This series has now fallen into a system to play on the UNDER when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points and the road team scored 35 points or less in the first half of their last game, and the home team is coming off a combined score of 160 points or less. This system is 25-6 (81%) to the UNDER. The Nets have an average defense, holding opponents to 94.8 points per game. However, their defense performs much better when they are well-rested which is why the Bulls have not been able to do a lot of scoring in this series. Brooklyn is 19-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. It is a similar story for Chicago as they are 11-3 to the UNDER in that same scenario. The Brooklyn Nets are not shooting well, averaging just 35% in the past two games of this series. The Bulls have not been shooting well either, but that is to be expected from a team that averages 92.9 points per game and is up against a solid defense. The Bulls have been phenomenal on the defensive end of the court when they are playing at home. Chicago has held opponents to 90.5 points per game and with Brooklyn being an average scoring team, at best, this game should stay well under the total. |
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04-26-13 | Denver Nuggets +1 v. Golden State Warriors | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1
Golden State is getting too much credit coming into this game as a favorite. The Warriors may score 101.5 points per game at home. but their defense has also given up 100.4 points per game this season. Now they face a Denver Nuggets team that has no problem lighting up a scoreboard as they average 106.2 points per game. The Nuggets gave up 64.6% shooting in the last game against Golden State and there is no way the Warriors will be able to duplicate that performance. That phenomenal shooting performance has forced the oddsmakers to tighten this line more than they should have. You should always play on road teams like Denver when they are shooting 33-36.5% on 3 point attempts playing against an average 3 point defense when they are coming off a game they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or more. This system is 62-34 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Another anomaly that should correct itself tonight is the fact that Golden State has managed to outrebound the Nuggets. Denver averages 55 rebounds per game on the road with 13 coming on the offensive end of the court. The Warriors are averaging 52 overall and 11 offensive rebounds. I expect the Nuggets to come out with a solid shooting performance and win the battle of the boards as they pick up a road win against the Warriors tonight. |
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics -2.5 | 90-76 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Boston Celtics -
The Knicks are a team that has a bad habit of becoming overly confident. That explains they why are 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Boston has done a great job of responding to losses against division opponents and that mentality is what landed the Celtics in the playoffs. Boston is 13-3 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks have struggled to get points on the board against Boston even though they own a 2-0 advantage to start the series. They are shooting 41.3% in the playoffs which has them trending in the wrong direction. They may not shoot as poorly as they have tonight, but playing on the road should make it near impossible for them to keep pace with a Celtics team that has such a strong home court advantage. The Celtics are shooting 47.7% at home this season where they own a 27-13 straight up record. They have held the Knicks to an average of 86 points per game in the playoffs. The added energy from playing on their home court should be more than enough to give Boston the edge tonight. |
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04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 183.5 | Top | 90-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER
The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game. You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends. Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be. |
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
4* No Limit on Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies received a much needed break after starting their series against the Clippers at 0-2. They have performed much batter at home than on the road this season going 32-9 when playing in Memphis. The Grizzlies style of play is playing tough defense and beating teams up in the pain which is something they were unable to do on the road against Los Angeles. I expect to see a rejuvenated team show up tonight with the Zach Randolph staying out of foul trouble and making a larger contribution than he has been able to in the previous two games. Memphis has held opponents to 87 points per game on their home court on 42.7% shooting from the field. It is extremely unlikely that the Clippers will be able to continue shooting over 51% in game three of this series. It may come as a surprise to many but the Clippers are not a great team on the road. They have a 24-17 straight up record and they are below .500 ATS. With game two being decided by just two points in Los Angeles the Grizzlies have shown they can compete with the Clippers. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. A little rest and a change in venue is more than enough the swing the outcome of this game in favor of the Grizzlies. |
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04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 179.5 | Top | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER
The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons. The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle. |
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04-25-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 182 | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Brooklyn/Chicago UNDER
After the Bulls let the Nets score 106 points in the series opener we saw a defense oriented game plan in the second game of this series. The series is now tied at 1-1 which places this game in a system to play on the UNDER. Over the past 5 seasons you would have an 80-42 (66%) record if playing the under in a playoff series that is tied. The venue has now moved to Chicago where the Bulls have held opponents to 90.9 points per game. The Bulls are 25-16 to the under in home games on the season. Defensively the Nets are not far behind Chicago holding opponents to 95 points per game. In the playoffs they held Chicago to 89 points in game 1 of the series and 90 points in game 2. The under is 19-9 in the Nets last 28 games being played on 2 or more days of rest. In head to head meetings being played at Chicago the under is 5-2 and the Bulls are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals game. The oddsmakers have set the total far too high for a matchup that features two strong defensive units and a pair of offenses that rarely light up the scoreboard with points. |
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04-24-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 186.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER
The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight. The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean. The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight. |
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04-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks +7.5 v. Indiana Pacers | 98-113 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
3* Vegas Insider on Atlanta Hawks +7
I think Atlanta comes to play here tonight after getting it handed to them in Game 1. The Hawks actually shot well, making 50% from the floor and 41.2% from 3-point range in the first matchup. The problem was Atlanta allowed Indiana to shoot 34 free throws and out rebound them by 12, including nine on the offensive end. Atlanta doesn't usually have a problem with fouling, and Indiana isn't particularly good at drawing fouls, so I expect the free throw disparity to be much closer tonight. The Hawks aren't as good of a rebounding team as the Pacers, but they can make up for a small disadvantage due to their excellent shooting. Atlanta is 18-7 ATS on the road revenging a double digit loss to an opponent the last three years while Indiana is 31-49 ATS off a home with the last three seasons. I think Atlanta rebounds tonight so I'll take the points. |
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04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 131-117 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Denver Nuggets -
Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having won 24 of their last 27 games. That puts them in a favorable situation as you want to play on favorites that have won at least 20 of their last 25 games who are winning between 60-75% of their games on the season. These teams have gone 63-35 ATS (64.3%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. This is a good matchup for Denver as they are 17-6 ATS against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last two seasons (Golden State hits 40.3%) and 19-9 ATS against teams who score 99+ points per game this year (the Warriors put up 101.1 ppg). When you look at how each team has done at the pay window recently you'll notice the Warriors have been cashing tickets while the Nuggets have been costing their backers money. Don't worry as both teams are quick to buck the trends. Golden State is just 2-10 ATS on the road after covering two or more straight games this year while Denver is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread this year. I'll take Denver. |
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04-22-13 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Brooklyn Nets | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider on Chicago Bulls +
The Brooklyn Nets had their way with the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series, and now with the number basically unchanged the public is all over the Nets in Game 2. However, I think Chicago is going to pull out the cover tonight by keeping this game close. The Bulls won three of the four regular season games and their sole loss was by four points, so one game isn't enough to make me think Chicago suddenly forgot how to play these Nets. Brooklyn is a hot time right now, I'll give them that but they are not a great offensive team so the 106 points they just put up is a bit of an outlier. Chicago will use that embarrassment as motivation to bring their A games tonight. The Bulls are 23-12 ATS after an over this year and 22-10 ATS when failing to cover in two straight games the last two seasons. The Nets are just 25-41 ATS after covering the last two years and 11-23 ATS at home after a win. This is a perfect rebound situation for Chicago and I think they can easily pull off the upset. |
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04-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 190.5 | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs UNDER
These two teams met just a week ago in LA and the final score was 86-91. I know Steve Nash will be playing tonight and he normally ups the tempo and creates on offense, but the Lakers are not as good offensively without Kobe Bryant on the floor. Against the Rockets in their final regular season game they went well under the total as well. San Antonio is an under-rated defensive team that only allows 94.3 ppg at home. They are coming off a high scoring first half in their last game, but the Spurs are 11-3 UNDER this season after putting up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game. The Lakers are 17-7 UNDER the last two years against teams that score 103+ ppg while the Sprus are 23-13 UNDER this year against teams above .500. This one will be low scoring so take the UNDER. |
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04-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs -8 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
5* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -
The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, even if they have had some injury problems the second half of the season, and that has spelled trouble for the Lakers. LA is just 9-20 ATS the last two years against teams with a winning percentage of above 70% and they are 24-43 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg. San Antonio on the other hand takes care of business against teams they should beat, going 10-1 ATS at home the last two years against teams winning between 50% & 60% of their games. You also want to take favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 102+ points per game against a defense that gives up between 98-102 ppg after allowing 105 or more in two straight. These teams are 62-32 (66%) since 1996. The Spurs coasted into the playoffs, losing their last three games and seven of their last 10. That has just given us a couple of points of value as expectations are lower. The Lakers spent a lot of energy just to get into the playoffs and I think that will spell a letdown tonight. |
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04-21-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana is showing some value here today after losing their last six at the pay window to close out the season and five of their last six straight up. They were really in kind of a no-man's land after the Knicks came on strong so didn't have much to play for. It's tough to pass up this low of a number when you see how Indiana has played a home. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by eight points per game, while the Hawks have a losing record on the road. These teams know just how important it is to protect the home court advantage and how important it is to win Game 1. I think the better team will come out focused, ready to play, and take care of business this afternoon. |
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04-20-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 178.5 | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
4* "Never Lost" Total on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER
These two teams have gone UNDER the last three times they have faced off, but that has created some value in tonight's number. The total back on 3/13 when these two last met in LA was 185 and only went UNDER by four points, which would have put us OVER tonight's number. The Clippers are an offensive force, especially at home where they are putting up 104.1 ppg on 49.3% shooting and 37.2% accuracy from behind the 3-point line. Memphis is a solid defensive team, but they are giving up 4 more points per game on the road than they do at home. The line sitting at -4.5 puts us in a perfect situation here tonight as the Clippers are 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of six points or less this season, with those games averaging 207.2 ppg. |
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04-20-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers -5 | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
3* Bailout on LA Clippers -
I like the home teams in this series. The Clippers are a strong offensive team at home while the Memphis defense slips a little bit when taking to the road. This series depended on the pace of the game this year, the one time things slowed down the Grizzlies came out on top. The three games that were played with a fast tempo all went to the Clippers. Last year LA went to Memphis and won Game 1 to help them steal the series in seven games. That knowledge has to be on the forefront of their minds as they know this Game 1 is going to be important if they want to protect their home court and advance. I like the home team laying the small number here tonight so take the Clippers. |
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04-20-13 | Boston Celtics +7 v. New York Knicks | 78-85 | Push | 0 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Boston Celtics +
If you look at the last two games between these two teams over the past 30 days you would think New York has Boston's number. The Knicks won 108-89 at home on 3/31 and 100-85 in Boston on 3/26. Those two victories were towards the beginning of an impressive 13 game win streak to close out the year and help New York land the No. 2 seed in the East. That has lead the Knicks to be a little over-valued heading into the first round of the playoffs. Boston on the other hand is under-valued. The Celtics are a team that has risen to the occasion under Doc Rivers and I expect them to do so again here today. While Boston has had playoff success as of late, Carmelo and the Knicks have not. Anthony has a 17-37 record in the playoffs during his career and New York hasn't won a playoff series since the 1999-2000 season. The Celtics finished their season with a loss at Toronto that sets up an interesting situation here. Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss to a division rival the last three seasons while Rivers is 33-16 ATS off a loss against a division rival since taking over as coach of the Celtics. I'll take the Celtics in Game 1. |
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04-20-13 | Boston Celtics v. New York Knicks UNDER 189.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 189.5
I don't expect a lot of points in this game tonight, largely due to how both teams will ratchet up the defensive intensity. Last year Boston scored 89.5 while holding opponents to 88.5 in their 20 playoff games. Neither team is a slouch on defense to begin with as the Knicks are giving up just 94 points per game at home and the Celtics allow just 96.7 ppg overall. The last three times these two teams have squared off the game has gone UNDER the total. The other thing I like about the UNDER here is that New York is getting Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby back for this one. Those two guys will only solidify the Knick defense and make it more difficult for Boston to score. The last five games for Boston have gone over the total which has given us inflated this number for us a little bit and it's too good of value to pass up on. New York is 8-0 for the UNDER at home against teams making 46% of more of their shots in the second half of the last two seasons. |
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04-17-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 v. Indiana Pacers | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Philadelphia 76ers +
The Indiana Pacers have sealed their postseason fate. There is no way they are going to be giving 100% in today |
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04-17-13 | New Orleans Hornets +7.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 87-99 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on New Orleans Hornets +
The Dallas Mavericks may have thrown in the towel on their season. They are coming off a six point loss to Memphis on their home court and they missed the playoffs by four games. This matchup falls into a system to play against a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are coming off a loss against a division rival and they have won 40-49% of their games on the season, playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 25-11 (69%) over the last five seasons. New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team winning 40% to 49% of their games over the last 3 seasons. They will be playing for a bit of revenge in this game as the Mavericks handed them an 18 point loss just a few nights ago. New Orleans may not have a great record this season, but they certainly know how to respond after a poor performance. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS when coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season. |
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04-16-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | 113-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Hawks -
The Atlanta Hawk |
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04-15-13 | Memphis Grizzlies -4 v. Dallas Mavericks | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Memphis -
These teams met back in February with Memphis picking up a 90-84 victory over Dallas. The Mavericks are 1-10 ATS over the last two seasons when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record. Defensively the Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the league. They have held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game this season. In their last five games they have held opponents to an outstanding 83.4 points per game so it is safe to say the Grizzlies defense is playing extremely well right now. The Mavericks defense has been horrible this season. They are allowing 103.6 points per game in division matchups. It is tough for any team to win when they are allowing that many points. The Mavericks are not playing for anything in this game and the Grizzlies have won six of the eight head to head meetings between these teams. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2000 the Mavericks should underwhelm for this matchup against Memphis. |
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04-15-13 | Denver Nuggets -5.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 112-111 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets
The Milwaukee Bucks have lost four straight games and three of those four losses came by double digits. Ever since the Bucks secured the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs it seems they decided to give up on the remainder of the regular season. You should always play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are coming off three or more consecutive losses when playing in an April game. This system is 36-13 (74%) ATS. The Nuggets are averaging 103.6 points per game on the road while the Bucks are allowing 100.9 points per game at home. This matchup falls into another system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are scoring 102 points per game or more and playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 52-19 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons. |
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04-15-13 | Washington Wizards +6 v. Brooklyn Nets | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +
The Washington Wizards are 33-16-2 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They are facing a Nets team that is playing on back to back nights traveling from Toronto after an 87-93 loss to the Raptors. Brooklyn |
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04-15-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Orlando Magic +3.5 | 102-84 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +
The Chicago Bulls have been playing down to their level of competition all season and they are getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. Chicago is 10-19 against teams with a losing record this season and when that team is winning only 25% to 40% of their games that number tightens up to 4-13 ATS. When the Bulls have been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points they are 6-22 ATS this season. Chicago has secured their spot in the playoffs and they do not have much to play for at this point in the season. The Magic may not be making the playoffs this season, but they are still playing for pride and their home fan base. The magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing against teams from the Eastern Conference and they are 3-1-1 when those games have come against the Central division. |
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04-15-13 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats -1.5 | 95-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Charlotte -
It is extremely unlikely that the Knicks will risk an injury to a key player when they face off against Charlotte tonight. New York has locked up the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference so they do not have much to play for until the postseason. New York is already missing Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby so it is almost a certainty that the remainder of the Knicks talent will not see the court tonight. Charlotte may have missed the postseason by a long shot, but they still have something to play for. The Bobcats are playing for pride and looking for their 20th win on the season. Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the Atlantic Division and playing at home should provide them with enough of an offensive boost to get past the Knicks tonight. Charlotte already owns a 2-0 ATS record over New York this season and the last game played in Charlotte was decided by just two points back when the Knicks were playing their top players. |
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04-14-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 196 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Lakers UNDER
San Antonio has been trending heavily towards the under in recent games. They have gone under the total is 7 of their last 10 games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when you have a team like San Antonio that is outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 or more points per game when playing on Sunday. This system is 167-91 (65%) over the last five seasons. The Lakers have gone under at a rate of 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record. They are also 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games played on Sunday. These teams have a strong head to head history of getting into a low scoring battle. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 games played at Los Angeles and it is 20-7 the last 27 meetings overall. These angles are a combined 42-11 (79%) to the under. With the Lakers fighting to keep that 8th spot in in the Western Conference playoffs race I expect to see them really step it up defensively. Their defense certainly plays much better at home than they go on the road holding opponents to 3.6 points per game less than their overall average. The offense does not get much of a boost with just 6 tenths of a point in increased scoring production when playing at home. |
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04-14-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors +3.5 | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Raptors +
The Raptors are hot coming into this game winning four of their last five straight up and against the spread. Brooklyn is on the third leg of a three game road stretch and they are 7-19 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game and coming off two consecutive road games. They are facing a Toronto team that has shot over 45% from the field in five of their last six games. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 4-0-1 ATS. Going back even further the Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games being played at Toronto. The Nets are not a team that is going to light up the scoreboard with points. They average just 96.4 points per game when playing on the road while the defense is allowing 95.3 points per game. The numbers for Toronto are actually identical at 96.4 points per game at home and 95.3 allowed by the Raptors. Considering how evenly matched these teams are and that the last matchup was played at Brooklyn and decided by 7 points the change in venue should be more than enough to change the outcome of this game. |
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04-14-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 194 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Pacers UNDER
Indiana has failed to cover the spread in their last four games. They are 19-5 to the under when they have failed to cover 3 or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The under is 5-2 in the Pacers last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. That is a perfect fit for an under angle from the Knicks as they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game. The under is also 4-1 in New York |
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04-13-13 | Phoenix Suns +5.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 93-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* No Limit Play on Suns +
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a strong history of playing poorly against Pacific Division teams. They are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games against the Pacific Division over the least three seasons. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five games and they have given up an average of 102 points per game. They are playing a Suns team that has had trouble getting points on the board, but that will have no problem scoring points in today |
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04-12-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +6 v. Washington Wizards | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on 76ers +
Philadelphia is the better team and even though they are playing on the road tonight, they are receiving too many points. You should always play against favorites like Washington when they are an extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days and they are a bad team winning only 25-40% of their games playing another team with a losing record. This system is 61-29 (68%) since 1996. The 76ers are coming off a shootout with Atlanta that ended with the Hawks picking up a 124-101 victory. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when coming off a double digit loss at home and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest. They face a Wizards team that is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Eastern Conference teams and 1-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The 76ers also own the head to head history for these teams. They are 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played at Washington. |
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04-12-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors -3 | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Toronto Raptors -
The Bulls have a bad habit of playing down to their level of competition. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against any team with a losing record. They are also playing on back to back nights after picking up a 7 point win over the Knicks last night. At this point in the season those back to back games can take their toll on a team and the Bulls are in a perfect spot to look past the Raptors today. This is a repeat game from just a few nights ago in which the Raptors traveled to Chicago and picked up a three point win straight up over the Bulls. A change in venue only makes the Raptors look even more favorable since they will be playing on their home court. The Bulls offense has struggled on the road this season averaging just 93.4 points per game. They face a Raptors team that is scoring 96.8 points per game while holding their opponents to 95.5 in home games. |
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04-12-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Indiana Pacers -5.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Pacers -
The Nets have picked up two wins over the Pacers this season but we should see a completely different result tonight. In the last game between these teams the Pacers shot 34.4% from the field and 22.7% on three point attempts. That anomaly is very unlikely to take place again since the Pacers have averaged 43.6% shooting at home and the Brooklyn defense is not overly talented. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Pacers when they are playing in a double revenge situation following two straight losses to their opponent when that same opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival. This system is 44-17 (72%) ATS. The Pacers have are solid from their home court sitting on a 30-9 straight up record. They are playing with an extra day of rest over the Nets in today |
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04-11-13 | New York Knicks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 191 | 111-118 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
4* Total Dominator on Bulls/Knicks UNDER
The Bulls beat New York back on January 11th as well as on December 21st this season. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case it is New York, is revenging two consecutive straight up losses against an opponent as a favorite when they are a good team winning 60-57% of their games playing another team with a winning record. This system is 121-72 (63%) in favor of the under. When playing at home the Bulls defense has held opponents to 90.3 points per game. Their offense has only scored slightly more than the defense is allowing at 92.8 points per game which indicates the slow pace of play for games played in Chicago. The Knicks offense has not done that well on the road averaging just 96.8 points per game and they have faced few defenses that are as tough and scrappy as this Bulls team. Coach Tom Thibodeau for Chicago is 30-11 to the under after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread as the coach of Chicago. The Bulls have already gone under the total in four of their last five games. The Knicks should also be playing with a little more of a defensive effort after allowing the Bulls to score 108 points in their last game. |
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04-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER
This game falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team, in this matchup it is San Antonio, has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games and they are winning 60-75% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 38-14 (73%) to the under throughout the last five seasons. The Spurs are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 consecutive road games and they are 5-1 to the under when playing against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are facing a Nuggets team that is 5-1 to the under in their last 6 home games and 4-1 to the under at home against teams with a winning record on the road. These team specific trends are a combined 20-3 (87%) to the under this season. San Antonio is very solid defensively and they have held opponents to an average of 96.2 points per game this season. They are playing exceptionally well lately holding opponents to just 92.2 points per game in their last 5 games. It is unfortunate for Spurs fans, but the offense is not performing well over that same time span. They are averaging that same 92.2 points per game offensively. They face a Denver defense that has held opponents to 97.7 points per game. The Spurs will be one of the better defensive units the Nuggets have faced on their home court so it is unlikely they will reach their typical scoring average which makes the under a no brainer in this game. |
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04-10-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings -6 | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Kings -
New Orleans and Sacramento will battle it out as two of the worst teams in the league face off tonight. The home team laying the points is the smart play in this game as New Orleans has won a mere 11 games on the road this season. Sacramento is one game under .500 at home and it is because of their ability to score at will. The Kings average 104.1 points per game on their home court. New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games while Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. The Kinds are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. In the last 30 head to head meetings between these teams the home team has earned a 22-8 ATS record and in the last 7 the favorite is 5-2 ATS. All signs point to an easy Sacramento win in this game. |
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04-09-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
5* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team winning 60% or more of their home games this season. Golden State is an impressive 26-12 at home this year. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing straight up record. Minnesota is 29-47 this season and they are an embarrassingly bad 10-27 when playing on the road. When playing at home the Warriors are scoring 101.4 points per game and holding opponents to 97.2 points per game. They should be able to beat their averages with ease against a Timberwolves team that allows 100.6 on the road while scoring only 95.2 points per game. The Warriors are hot coming into this game averaging 104.4 points per game in their last five games. They have shot just under 50% from the field while holding opponents to 45.6% shooting. In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors picked up a one point win on the road at Minnesota. A change in venue should be more than enough to cover the -6.5 point line set for today |
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04-09-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets -14 | 98-101 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Houston Rockets -
This matchup falls into a system to play on a good team like Houston that is outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game when they are coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 121-79 (61%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. This game falls into another system to play on favorites like Houston when they are an explosive offensive team averaging over 102 points per game after three or more consecutive games scoring 110 points or more against an average offensive team scoring 92-98 points per game. This system is 27-7 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Suns have not performed well against good shooting teams over the last 2 seasons as they have an 8-24 (75%) ATS record against teams making over 46% of their shots. Phoenix is one of the worst road teams in the league with a 7-30 straight up record and a defense that is allowing 105.7 points per game. That is a losing combination for Phoenix and should result in a big blowout win for the Rockets today. The last matchup between these teams being played at Houston was won by 30 points by the Rockets. |
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04-09-13 | Washington Wizards +10 v. New York Knicks | 99-120 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +
The Knicks were in a shootout with the Thunder on Sunday in a game that ended with a 125-120 final score. This matchup falls into a system to play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Washington after a loss by 10 or more and playing against an opponent that is coming off a combined score of 215 points or more. This system is 114-72 (61.3%) since 1996. The Knicks are not the Miami Heat so it is likely their win streak will come to an end soon. It may not happen in today's game against Washington, but this game should certainly end much closer than the 10 points we are receiving. They are facing a Washington team that has been undervalued on the road this season which has led to a winning ATS road record for the Wizards. Washington |
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04-07-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 | 96-91 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Portland +
The Mavericks are really struggling having lost two of their last three games. Portland is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the road. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a straight up win. In head to head matchups between these teams the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Portland may not have a great overall record on the season, but they are a respectable 22-15 at home. The Trail Blazers average 99.8 points per game on their home court and they are a solid free throw shooting team at 78.2%. They face a Mavericks team that is allowing 103.5 points per game on the road and sitting on a 14-24 road record. Dallas is poor defensively when it comes for forcing turnovers too. The Mavericks average just 14 per game. Take the points, but the oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team in this matchup. |
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04-07-13 | Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Detroit Pistons | 85-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -
Detroit has lost their last two games against Boston and Minnesota. This game falls into a system to play against underdogs like Detroit when they are revenging a loss against their opponent and they are off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 99-50 (66%) ATS. This matchup falls into another system to play on road favorites like Chicago when they are a good ball handling team committing 14.5 or less turnovers per game playing against a poor pressure defense team forcing 14.5 or less turnovers and when they are holding opponents to 43.5% to 45.5% shooting against a poor defensive team like Detroit that is allowing 45.5% to 47.5% after 42 or more games. This system is 187-117 (62%) ATS since 1996. |
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04-06-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 193 | Top | 97-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER
The Hawks offense has been struggling on the road. They average 95.9 points per game and they will have their hands full against a San Antonio defense that has held opponents to 93.7 points per game at home. The Atlanta Hawks are 4-0 to the under in their last four games overall and they are 5-1 to the under following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. They are playing in a back to back situation which also favors the under at a rate of 10-3 the last 13 games playing with no rest. The Spurs have also gone under the total in their last 4 games and they are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southeast division teams. San Antonio is 13-3 to the under in their last 16 games following a straight up loss this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played at San Antonio. The Spurs defense has played extremely well at home. The offense has been struggling recently averaging only 93.2 points per game in their last five games. All signs point to this game ending with a low score. |
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04-05-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +8 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
5* No Brainer on Phoenix Suns +
Golden State is coming into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 road games and a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Golden State is also 0-9 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Golden State defense has been the biggest problem when playing on the road. The Warriors are allowing 102.8 points per game while averaging 99.9 in scoring. In head to head meetings between these teams the home team is 6-2 over the last 8 games. The Warriors have not won more than two consecutive games since February and their poor play on the road may prevent them from picking up that third win today. Phoenix has held opponents to 97.1 points per game and they have covered two of their last three games when playing at home. In the last matchup between these teams the Warriors pulled off a 10 point victory on their home court. Considering we have a change in venue and the oddsmakers have left the line the same the Suns have become the value play in this rematch. Phoenix shot 53% from the three point line in the last game and the soft Golden State defense playing on the road should make for an easy cover for the Suns. |
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04-05-13 | Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. New York Knicks | 83-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Milwaukee Bucks +
Milwaukee has a history of playing in close games against Atlantic Division teams. They are 47-18 ATS in their last 65 against Atlantic teams. In head to head history between these teams the Bucks own a 7-2 ATS record in the last 9 games played at New York. The Knicks have allowed 48.5% and 50% shooting in their last two games so they are trending in the wrong direction. The Milwaukee offense has played well this season averaging 99.2 points per game. They are a good rebounding team pulling in 52 boards per game against a Knicks team averaging only 48 rebounds per game at home. The Bucks also have an advantage when it comes to assists, blocks and avoiding foul trouble. They are getting too many points today in what should be a very close game. |
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04-04-13 | Dallas Mavericks +7 v. Denver Nuggets | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Dallas +
The Mavericks are coming off a tough loss to the Lakers, scoring only 81 points in that game. They have had a day of rest coming into today |
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04-03-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 197 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Hornets/Warriors UNDER
Golden State has gone under the total in five of their last seven games. They are 5-0 to the under in their last 5 games against Southwest Division teams and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. They are well rested coming into this game so there should not be any tired legs on the defensive end of the court. The Hornets are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest. The extra rest for both teams should help improve their defensive numbers. Golden State is allowing 97.4 points per game at home while New Orleans is allowing 97.6 points per game. The Hornets defense has been better in their last five games holding opponents to 94.8 per game. The style of play from these teams indicates this game should be low scoring. The last time these teams met was back on March 18th and the total was 196 points with the teams scoring a combined 165 points in a 93-72 game. Both teams are playing well right now with the Hornets winning four of their last six and Golden State winning five of their last seven. These recent win streaks have been because of solid defensive performances. |
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04-03-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz -2.5 | 113-96 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Jazz -
Denver is coming off a home game against Brooklyn in which they were outrebounded by 19 boards. The Nuggets pulled off the win because they shot 57% from the field but that is not likely to happen again today when they play at Utah. This matchup falls into a system to play against underdogs like Denver when they are 3+ on rebounding margin and coming off a game where they were outrebounded by their opponent by 15 or more boards. This system is 51-21 (71%) ATS. The Jazz have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with a 28-9 straight up record and a 23-13 ATS record. They are averaging 100.9 points per game at home while holding opponents to 95 points per game. Denver may be scoring 103.4 points per game on the road, but their defense is allowing 104.4 per game. You can |
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04-03-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Boston Celtics -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Celtics -
Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their road games. They are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. They are facing a Detroit team that is having a horrible season with a 25-50 record. The Celtics have struggled recently and a game against this soft Detroit team is just what they need to bounce back. Boston has a 25-11 overall record at home while Detroit is 10-28 when playing on the road. The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Atlantic Division teams and they are 0-5 ATS following a straight up win. |
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04-03-13 | New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks -3.5 | 95-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Hawks -
The Atlanta Hawks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games when playing on 1 day of rest. They have a great home record at 24-13 straight up and average 99.9 points per game on their home court. The Knicks are averaging 96.1 points per game on the road and allowing 96.6 on the defensive end. Obviously, anytime your defense is allowing more points than you are scoring it is a recipe for disaster. These teams last met on January 27th in New York with the Knicks squeaking out a 2 point win over the Hawks. A change in venue should be more than enough to change the end result of this game. New York is suffering through a lot of injuries right now so it looks as though their 9 game win streak will come to an end tonight against this solid Atlanta Hawks team. |
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04-03-13 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -3.5 | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Raptors -
The Raptors do a great job of limiting turnovers averaging only 13 per game. Washington is 17-34 ATS in road games when playing against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the season. We are getting some added value here because Washington has played well recently which forced the oddsmakers to make this line a little smaller than it should be. Washington is 7-29 on the road this season and they are playing on back to back nights. Playing in back to back games is tough enough at this point in the season but playing that second leg on the road makes things even tougher. This should be a blowout win for the Raptors. |
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04-02-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards -2 | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Wizards -
The last time these teams played in January the Bulls managed only 73 points as Washington won in a blowout. You should always play against underdogs like Chicago when they are revenging a loss where they scored 75 points or less and they have a 45-55% win percentage on the season. This system is 100-57 (64%) ATS. The Bulls defense has struggled on the road allowing 95 points per game while forcing only 13 turnovers per game. They now face a Wizards team that is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Washington is a respectable 24-13 (65%) ATS on their home court this season. The Bulls are beat up with injuries right now. They squeaked off a one point victory over a horrible Detroit team on Sunday after a straight up loss to Dallas on Saturday. The Bulls are trending in the wrong direction making the Wizards the smart play in today |
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04-01-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Clippers -
The Pacers are playing their 9th game in the last two weeks. You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Indiana when they have won four of their last five games but they are a tired team playing 8 or more games in the last 14 days. This system is 69-41 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons. Los Angeles is coming off an 81 point performance on the road against Houston so a home game is just what the Clippers need to turn things around. This game falls into another system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Clippers when they are scoring 98 to 102 points per game against a team averaging 92 to 98 points per game after scoring 85 points or less in their last game. This system is 33-11 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against NBA Pacific. The Clippers on the other hand are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 against Central division teams and they are 4-0 ATS in home games against teams with a losing road record. The Clippers should have a big game against a Pacers team that struggles on the road. |
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04-01-13 | Charlotte Bobcats +12 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 102-131 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
4* No Limit on Bobcats +
Milwaukee is ice cold losing five of their last six games and allowing 100 points or more in five consecutive games. You should always play on underdogs of 10 points or more like Charlotte when they are allowing 103 or more points per game on the season and playing against an opponent coming off a combined score of 205 points or more in 2 straight games. This system is 49-21 (70%) ATS. Charlotte has covered their last three consecutive games against the spread and they have covered five of their last seven going back to the middle of March. The oddsmakers have still not given them the respect they have earned since they come into this game as a double digit dog against a very poor Milwaukee team. Milwaukee Head Coach Jim Boylan is 0-8 ATS against Southeast Division opponents and he is 8-20 ATS in the second half of the season as the coach of the Bucks. Boylan has proven he is taking this Milwaukee team in the wrong direction. With how bad the Bucks have been playing there is no reason they should be a double digit favorite over anyone. |
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03-31-13 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -1 | 88-86 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* No Brainer on Spurs -
San Antonio has one of the best home court advantages in the league. The Spurs are 32-4 straight up at home and average 105.6 points per game while allowing only 94.2 points per game. They are one of the few teams in the league shooting over 50% from the field and almost 40% on three point attempts. The Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Heat on the other hand are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent is coming off a game where they scored 100 points or more. In head to head meetings between these teams Miami is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games. The Heat may get all the publicity for their long win streak but the reality is, San Antonio has only 2 more losses than the Heat do this season. The Spurs have won 10 of their last 11 games when playing in San Antonio. With the Spurs having such a great home court advantage these teams will only be one game apart after today |
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03-30-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Utah Jazz OVER 193.5 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Jazz OVER
Brooklyn has gone over the total in six of their last seven road games. They are also 5-1 to the over against Western Conference Teams and 4-1 to the over when playing on 0 days of rest. The Jazz are also a team that trends to the over when playing without rest as they are 5-1 the last six games played without getting a day off. The Jazz have a great home court advantage and that has helped their offense shine when playing in Utah. They are averaging 100.1 points per game at home while their defense is allowing an average of 98.6 points per game. Brooklyn is a solid offensive team and should not have a problem going above their 96.1 point per game average against the weak Jazz defense. With both of these teams playing without rest we have a matchup that is sure to be light on defense which should push this game above the total. |
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03-30-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
4* Vegas Insider on Thunder -
The Bucks have had a very busy schedule the past few days. You should always play against the home team when they are playing their third game in four days and they are coming off a game in which they scored and allowed over 100 points. This system is 77-40 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons. You should always play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like OKC when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more and playing against a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 46-19 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Thunder are in the perfect situation to have a big game. They are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota and facing a Milwaukee team that has lost four of their last five games. The Thunder offense has been almost unstoppable this season averaging 106 points per game and they have the luxury of facing one of the worst home defenses in the league. |
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03-30-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206 | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Total No Brainer on Clippers/Rockets UNDER
The Rockets are playing solid defense right now holding opponents to 94.8 points per game in their last five games. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is between 200 to 209.5 points and there is a well-rested team like Houston playing 4 or less games in 10 days and they are winning 51-60% of their games and playing another team with a winning record. This system is 50-16 (76%) to the under over the last five seasons. The Clippers defense has been solid all season holding opponents to 94.3 points per game. They should have no problem keeping Houston in line considering Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. The Rockets are 29-13 to the under when the total is set between 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons. With the Rockets playing solid defense and going up against one of the best teams in the league this game should have no problem staying under the total. |
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03-30-13 | Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Grizzlies -
This is Minnesota |
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03-30-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 186.5 | 99-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/TWolves OVER
Both of these teams have played a lot of games recently and the first thing tired teams give up on is defense. Minnesota has scored over 100 points in four of their last five games while the Grizzlies have gone over the total in their last four consecutive games. Neither team has a good defense to begin with and the fact that they are both playing tired should make the over an easy cover. This game falls into a system to play on the over when the total is 180 to 189.5 points and the home team is making 33% or less of their three point attempts and playing on a Saturday game. This system is 47-25 (65%) over the last five seasons. Minnesota is also 4-1 to the over in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. |
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03-29-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Denver Nuggets -6.5 | 87-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Nuggets -
Brooklyn is an overrated team. They have not performed well against good teams and that has led to a 4-9 ATS record in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. The Nuggets on the other hand are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record and 14-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Nets are playing their 6th game of an 8 game road stretch against Denver tonight. They are trending in the wrong direction going from an average shooting percentage of 52.4% in their first two games to barely over 45% in their last three games. The Nets were allowing opponents an average of 41 rebounds per game and they have now allowed an average of 53 in their last two games. The Nuggets won 15 consecutive games before dropping back to back games on the road against New Orleans and San Antonio. They have had a day of rest and now have the luxury of playing on their home court where they have earned a 32-3 record. All signs point to Denver getting right back to their winning ways with a blowout win over Brooklyn. |
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03-29-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder -8 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 93-101 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
This matchup falls into a system to play on road favorites like Oklahoma City when they are coming off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system is 70-26 (73%) over the last five seasons. That system tights up to 31-8 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons when the road favorite is playing against a home team coming off a home loss. The Thunder are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when that team is winning less than 40% of their games. Conversely, the Timberwolves are 3-12 ATS in their last 16 games against a team winning 60% or more of their games. Minnesota is also 2-12 ATS against Northwest Division teams. The Thunder are one of the best teams in the league and they are hot covering double digit spreads in two of their last three games. They are facing a Minnesota team that has lost four of their last six games and they are one of the few teams in the league below .500 on their home court. |
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03-29-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics OVER 194.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Celtics OVER
Atlanta |
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03-28-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns +2 | 117-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout Phoenix Suns +
The Kings should not be favored on the road against anyone. They are coming off an upset win over Golden State and playing on back to back nights now traveling to Phoenix. This puts Sacramento in the perfect spot for a letdown game. The Kings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games coming off a straight up win and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Suns also own the head to head history between these teams with a 10-2 ATS record on the last 12 meetings in Phoenix and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall. Sacramento has one of the worst road defenses in the league allowing 105 points per game on 47.5% shooting. They have won only 7 games away from home out of 37 total games. In Sacramento |
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03-27-13 | Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 120-117 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Lakers -
The Timberwolves are playing in a back to back situation traveling from Detroit last night. You should always play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are an extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days and they are a bad team winning 25-40% of their games on the season. This system is 58-25 (70%) since 1996. The last time these teams played the Lakers handed the TWolves a 116-94 beat down. This game also falls into a system to play against home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 points or more and that home team is playing on back to back days. This system is 104-50 (68%) over the last five seasons. |
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03-27-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +1 v. New York Knicks | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
5* Vegas Insider on Grizzlies +
The Knicks have been plagued by injuries in the second half of the season. Tonight they face a tough Memphis team that is coming off an embarrassing loss to Washington. The Grizzlies should be set for a big game against the Knicks since they are the more rested team as New York is playing in a back to back traveling from Boston last night. You should always play against teams like New York when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more and their opponent is coming off a road loss and the line is between +3 to -3. This system is 109-64 (63%) over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Memphis when they were beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their last game and they are a good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. This system is 55-35 (61%) over the last five seasons. Memphis has a better ATS record on the road at 20-14 than the Knicks do at home with a 19-15 ATS record. The Grizzlies defense has been solid on the road holding opponents to 89.7 points per game. They should have no problem picking up a win over New York tonight. |
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03-27-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 197 | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/76ers OVER
Both of these teams have been playing horrible defense recently. In their last five games the Bucks have allowed 101.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting and the 76ers have allowed 102.4 points per game on 48.2% shooting. You should always play on the over when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and the road team has allowed 100 points or more in 2 straight games playing against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more in their previous game. This system is 188-124 (60%) since 1996. Milwaukee is 5-2 to the over in their last 7 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games and they are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The 79ers are 4-0 to the over in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall. With both of these defenses struggling the way they are this game should have no problem going over the total. |
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03-26-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Detroit Pistons OVER 196 | 105-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Twolves/Pistons OVER
Both of these teams are bad defensively. You should always play on the over when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing 45.5-47.5% shooting and two average rebounding teams after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 222-146 (60.3%) since 1996. The over is 7-2 in Minnesota |
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03-25-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 v. Utah Jazz | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on 76ers +
The Jazz are struggling right now having lost their last four games and traveling from Dallas after last night |
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03-25-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5 | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Pacers -
The Pacers have won three of their last four games and they are playing at home where they own a 28-8 record. They are facing an Atlanta team that is playing in a back to back situation traveling from Milwaukee last night. This is the second leg of a four game road stretch for Atlanta so the Hawks should look a bit sluggish in today |
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03-24-13 | Philadelphia 76ers +3 v. Sacramento Kings | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Philadelphia 76ers +
The 76ers have lost their last two games but it has not been because they are playing bad. In the loss against Denver the 76ers shot 55.1% from the field and still came up just one point shy. You should always play against home favorites like Sacramento when they are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points and their opponent is coming off two or more road losses. This system is 92-49 (65%) since 1996. Sacramento |
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03-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 203.5 | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hawks UNDER
Atlanta has gone under the total in their last two games while Milwaukee has gone under in their last three. You should always play on the under when the total is between 200 to 209.5 and the home team has gone under the total by 30 points or more in their last three games. This system is 124-75 (62%) over the last five seasons. This matchup falls into another system to play on the under. You should take the under when the total is 200 points or more and one of the teams has been beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their last game, like Atlanta, and when they are playing against an opponent that has gone under the total by 30 or more points in the last three games. This system is 29-9 (76%) over the last five seasons. Milwaukee is 11-2 to the under when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Bucks are the only real scoring threat in this game as they average 100 points per game at home. They seem to be in a shooting rout right now averaging 34% from the field in their last two games so it seems unlikely they will be able to match that home scoring average in today |
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03-23-13 | Brooklyn Nets +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +
The Brooklyn Nets are a good team and they are a solid 4 games above .500 when playing on the road this season. The Nets are on fire coming into this game winning their last two and scoring an average of 116 points in those games. You should always play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are scoring 92-98 points per game on the season after 42 or more games and coming off two straight games scoring 110 points or more when they are playing against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 points per game. This system is 23-5 (82%) ATS! You should also play on any team that has gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games like Brooklyn when they are playing in a non-conference matchup. This system is 114-69 (62%) since 1996. Brooklyn |
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03-23-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 223.5 | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Nuggets/Kings UNDER
This total is set much higher than it should be. You should always play on the under when the game involves a team like Denver that is averaging 71% or less on free throws and 46% shooting or better from the field. This system is 139-101 (58%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are a poor free throw shooting team averaging only 69.6% so they will not be adding a lot of points when the clock is stopped. Sacramento |
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03-22-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 212.5 | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Cavs/Rockets UNDER
Cleveland is coming off a close loss to Miami and their defense looked impressive in that game. You should play the under when the total is 210 points or more and a team is revenging a same season loss like Cleveland and they are off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 50-27 (65%) over the last five seasons. This matchup falls into another system to play the under when the total is greater than 210 points and one of the teams, in this case Houston, has been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in their last three games playing against an opponent that has gone over the total by 18 or more points in the last three games. This system is 113-82 (62%) in favor of the under. The Cavaliers are going to need to score over 100 points for this game to go over the total. That is a feat they have accomplished only 2 times in their last 10 games. It seems very unlikely they will be able to do it against this Houston team that has gone under the total in six of their last seven games. |
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03-22-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Miami Heat OVER 199 | 89-103 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
3* Total No Brainer on Heat/Pistons OVER
You should always play on the over in a game involving a team that has 7 or more consecutive wins and they have won 75% or more of their games on the season playing a team with a losing record. This system is 110-70 (61.1%) to the over. When that team is off 8 or more consecutive wins, that system tightens up to 82-52 in favor of the over. Detroit may not have a great overall record but they can still get a lot of points on the board. The Pistons have gone over the total in five of their last six games. Their defense is allowing 101.6 points per game on the road which has been a big factor in this recent stretch of overs, but the offense has been performing well too averaging over 95 points per game in three of their last five games. |
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03-21-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -5 | 99-89 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NBA Main Event on Bulls -
This game galls into a system to play on an average defensive team allowing 92-98 points per game like Chicago when they are playing a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season and coming off two games with a combined score of 205 points or more. This system is 113-63 (64%) since 1996. Portland has really struggled on the road this season. They have a 9-25 straight up record and a 13-20 record against the spread. The reason they have been unsuccessful on the road is because of their defense. Portland is allowing 102.1 points per game and 48.1% shooting from the field. The Portland offense has been average at best on the road scoring 95.8 points per game. They now face a Bulls team that is holding opponents to 89.7 points per game at home. Chicago is the better team overall and playing at home should make it easy for the Bulls to cover the number today. |
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03-20-13 | Utah Jazz v. Houston Rockets UNDER 209 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
5* Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz UNDER
You should always play the under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 and one of the teams, in this case Houston, is a well-rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games playing another winning team. This system is 68-27 (71.6%) over the last 5 seasons. You also want to play on the under when the total is greater than 200 and the home team has gone under the total by 24 or more points in their last three games and the game involves two teams with a winning record. This system is 65-29 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. The Jazz have gone 4-0 to the under in their last 4 games when they are playing with only 1 day of rest and they are 5-1 to the under against teams from the Southwest division. The Rockets are 5-1 to the under against Western Conference teams and 4-1 to the under in their last five home games. |
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03-20-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 199 | 113-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
4* Total No Brainer on Mavs/Nets UNDER
Both Dallas and Brooklyn are coming off big wins. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is set between 190-199.5 points and the home team is off a win by 10 points or more against an opponent off a win by 15 points or more. This system is 128-77 (62.4%) to the under since 1996. Brooklyn has played a soft schedule their last four games and they have managed to score over 100 points in each of those matchups. Their recent scoring success has driven this total up higher than it should be. You should also play on the under when one of the teams has gone over the total by 6 or more points in four consecutive games and that team has a winning record and the total is set between 190-199.5 points. This system is 50-24 (67.6%) in favor of the under. |
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03-19-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Thunder -
Oklahoma City is the hot team coming into this matchup. Denver may have a solid win streak in play, but they are trending in the wrong direction. The Nuggets in their last four games have gone from above 50% shooting down to 45.5%. They are coming off a close battle with the Bulls last night and now have to travel from Chicago to Oklahoma City to play in a back to back against the Thunder. You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver after they have covered three of their last four games against the spread in a game involving two good teams winning 60 to 70% of their games on the season. This system is 48-23 (67.6%) over the last five seasons. This game also falls into a system to play on a team holding their opponents to 92-98 points per game like Oklahoma City when they are playing a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game after 42+ games and coming off a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This system is 112-62 (64.4%) ATS. |
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03-18-13 | Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189 | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Heat/Celtics UNDER
Miami is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 games when playing without rest and they are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 road games. When playing on the road against a team with a winning home record, the Heat are 5-2 to the under in their last 7 games. In their last 5 matchups against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season the Celtics are 4-1 to the under. The last time these teams played the total reached 198 points, but that was only because they went to double overtime. The score at the end of regulation was 174 points in that game. It is unlikely these teams will go to double overtime again making the under the value play in this matchup. Neither of these teams takes a lot of shots with both the Celtics and Heat averaging fewer than 80 field goal attempts per game. The Heat have gone under the total in three of their last four games and the Celtics defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 42.6% shooting. The style of play for these teams makes the under a no brainer. |
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03-18-13 | Washington Wizards v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 189 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Bobcats OVER
You should always play the over when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points with the home team is coming off a game where they allowed 105 points or more and they are playing against an opponent that is coming off a game scoring 110 points or more. This system is 62-30 (67.4%) in favor of the over. You should also play the over when the game involves an average offensive team scoring 92-98 points and coming off a game with a combined score of 225 points or more like Washington, against a horrible defensive team that is allowing 102 or more points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 50-19 (72.5%) in favor of the over. |
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03-18-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 190.5 | 111-90 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Indiana/Cleveland UNDER
You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 190.5 points and the road team is off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite and they are a good team winning 60-75% of their games on the season. This system is 48-18 (72.7%) in favor of the under. This total has been driven up because the Pacers have been on a run of games going over the total. You should also play the under when one of the teams has played 5 or more consecutive overs and they are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game. This system is 154-95 (61.8%) since 1996. |
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03-18-13 | Indiana Pacers -7 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | 111-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana -
You should always play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Cleveland when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 81-39 (67.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams winning 40% or less of their games this season and they are 8-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a losing home record. Cleveland is a young team and they are struggling without Kyrie Irving who is out with a shoulder injury. Indiana has done well against Central Division teams posting a 6-1 ATS record their last 7 compared to a 4-12 ATS record for Cleveland. The Cavaliers have lost six of their last eight games and this is just the matchup the Pacers need to snap out of their two game skid. |
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03-17-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets -7.5 | 108-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter on Rockets -
You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off a home loss like Golden State when they are trying to revenge a home loss against their opponent. This system is 126-67 (65.3%) over the last five seasons. This is a tough spot for Golden State to be in. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to Chicago getting only one day of rest and now traveling to Houston to take on a Rockets team that has won five of their last seven games. Golden State has been overrated all season. They are one of the few teams above .500 whose scoring average is less than their points allowed average. It appears things are finally catching up to them as the Warriors are 6-15 ATS in the second half of the season this year. Houston is averaging 111.3 points per game on their home court and Golden State is allowing 104.4 points on the road. While neither team will ever be accused of being great defensively, the Rockets style of play is getting into a shootout with their opponent and the Warriors simply don |
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03-17-13 | Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 196 | 108-91 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Heat/Raptors UNDER
Miami is not a team that needs to score a lot of points to win games. They have scored over 100 points in only three of their last nine games and they still have a 9.6 point margin of victory in that span. This means their defense is being undervalued by the oddsmakers when the total is set this high. In that same nine game span the under is 6-2-1 with the average total being set at 195 points. This game falls into a system to play the under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and both the home team and opponent are coming off a win by 10 points or more. This system is 111-62 (64.2%) ATS. The Raptors are 6-0 to the under in their last six games against Southeast division teams. In head to head games between these teams the under is 5-2 in the 7 meetings. |
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03-16-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz -1.5 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Heavy Hitter Jazz -
You should always play on home favorites when they are a well-rested team playing their 2nd game in 5 days against an opponent playing their 4th game in 5 days. This system is 36-9 (80%) over the last five seasons. A well-rested Utah team on their home court is big trouble for Memphis. The Jazz have one of the best home court advantages in the league. They are 23-8 straight up and 19-12 ATS at home this season. The Jazz respond well after a loss. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They also play well against good teams at home. Utah is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams winning 60% or more of their road games this season. With Memphis playing on a back to back traveling from Denver the Jazz are the smart play in this game. Their home court advantage is hard enough for teams to overcome and since Utah is playing on two days of rest they should come out looking sharp today. |
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03-16-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. San Antonio Spurs -14 | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Spurs -
San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against Central division teams and they are 20-7 ATS in home games against teams winning less than 40% of their road games. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS against teams winning 60% or more of their games. In head to head matchups between these teams the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. And Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings played at San Antonio. San Antonio |
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03-16-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards OVER 189.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer Wizards/Suns OVER
You should always play the over in a game involving two teams averaging 92-98 points per game after one of those teams has allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. The Suns gave up 108 to Denver, 111 to Houston and 107 to Atlanta. This system is 45-18 (71.4%) over the last 5 seasons. The first thing a tired team gives up on is playing defense. This is why you should play the over when the total is 180-189.5 and one of the teams is off a road loss by 10 points or more and they are an extremely tied team playing their 3rd game in 4 days. This system is 120-77 (61%) over the last 5 seasons. The Suns are bad enough on defense allowing 104.6 points per game on the road and playing tired means this game should be an offensive show. |
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03-15-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 195 | Top | 80-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer on Grizzlies/Nuggets UNDER
A strong offensive performance from a team will impact the total line more than a strong defensive performance. This is why you should play the under when the total is between 190.5 and 199.5 after one team is coming off a game where they allowed 85 points or less like Memphis and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 80-45 (64%) ATS. You should also play the under when one team is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, like Denver, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 94-46 (67%) ATS. Both Memphis and Denver are trending towards the under. Denver has gone under the total in three of their last four games while Memphis has gone under in three of their last five games. The Grizzlies are a very defense oriented team. They are holding opponents to an average score of 89.4 points per game. Memphis is 17-7 to the under after allowing 85 points or less this season. They are one of the best teams in the league and should have no problem controlling the pace of this game. |