4* Major on Nuggets -10
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at Denver.

4* Major on Hornets +4.5
Bottom Line: The Bucks are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

4* Major on Bobcats -1
Bottom Line: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.

5* Wiseguy NBA Play of the Day on Hornets +8.5
Bottom Line: The Hornets lost the season's first meeting by 15 points but I'm not hesitating to get behind them in this revenge spot. New Orleans is 21-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when looking for revenge for a same-season defeat to an opponent. It has only lost by an average of 3.0 points in these games.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Kings +2
Bottom Line: The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. They are 2-16 ATS after covering the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Also, the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA Play of the Day on Magic +4.5
Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the Magic at home in what is an extremely motivated spot for them. They have lost twice to Brooklyn this month, and one of those was an ugly 107-68 defeat at home. They'll be looking to save face here. It works in our favor that Orlando lost 110-89 in its last game. That's because it is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 110 points or more in 2 straight games. It has actually won by an average score of 100.8 to 90.6 in this situation. Pound Orlando.

4* Major NBA on TNT Bailout on Warriors +1.5
Bottom Line: I expect the third time to be the charm for the Warriors who have already lost twice to Denver this season. The home loss came in OT so Golden State has shown it can stick with Denver for 48 minutes. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home game and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record. Take Golden State.

5* Wiseguy NBA Play of the Day on Bobcats +9
Bottom Line: The Hawks are being overvalued here because Charlotte is coming off a 45-point loss. The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Also, plays against home teams (ATLANTA) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more that are up against an opponent that was held to 85 points or less in its last game are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Atlanta is 25-40 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons, 2-12 ATS in home games in November the last 3 seasons and 19-34 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Bobcats.

4* Major on Magic +8
Bottom Line: The home team has been the play in this series. It has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings. Orlando has won 3 of its last 4 at home against the Spurs and took San Antonio to overtime in the one it didn't win during this stretch.

4* Major on Raptors +6
Bottom Line: The Raptors have been a sweet play when checking into a game off two or more consecutive defeats. They are 22-9 ATS since the beginning of last season in games after two or more consecutive losses.

4* Major on Cavaliers +2.5
Bottom Line: The Suns have been pure fade material following a game in which they covered the spread - they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS victory.

5* Wiseguy NBA Play of the Day on Jazz -3
Bottom Line: The Jazz are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season. Plus, the favorite is a phenomenal 33-16-3 ATS in the last 52 meetings.

4* Major on Wizards +5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team that has a losing home record and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

5* Wiseguy NBA Play of the Day on Magic +5.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics, who are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record, can't be trusted laying this many points on the highway. The C's are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when valued as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They have been defeated by an average of 7.4 points in these contests. Pound the Magic, who are 4-2 at home and hungry to end a 5-game losing streak in the series.

4* Major on Lakers -1
Bottom Line: The Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record.

4* Major on Hornets +4.5
Bottom Line: The Suns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. They are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

4* Major on Celtics +4.5
Bottom Line: I'll gladly take the Celtics at home catching points as they are 152-125 ATS in the underdog role under coach Rivers. They have lost these games on average but only by an average of 2.7 points.

4* Major on Suns -2
Bottom Line: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Blazers.

4* Major on Mavericks +3
Bottom Line: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Knicks are 7-15 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Cavaliers +4
Bottom Line: Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread that are matched up against a hot team that has covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 26-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 5.3 points on average and have won by an average of 1.5 points. Also, the 76ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest.

4* Major on New Orleans Hornets +7
Bottom Line: The Hornets have been a stellar play at home where they are on a 12-2 ATS run. Plus, the underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings.

4* Major on Raptors +5.5
Bottom Line: Toronto lost the season's first meeting by 10 points, but teams coach by Dwane Casey are 33-15 ATS lifetime when looking for revenge for a double-digit defeat. His teams have won these games on average by a score of 92.8 to 92.6.

4* Major on Nuggets +7.5
Bottom Line: Denver is on a 23-10 ATS run in road games versus good offensive teams that average 99.0 points or more per game. It has lost these games by just 0.9 points on average.

4* Major on Bulls pk
Bottom Line: The Bulls are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 games following a loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

4* Major on Kings +3.5
Bottom Line: The Nets are being overvalued on the road here given that they are on a 24-41 ATS slide against teams that have a losing record. They have lost these games by an average of 3.5 points.

4* Major on Cavs +6.5
Bottom Line: Look for Philly's home struggles to continue here. The 76ers are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games.

4* Major on Bobcats +6
Bottom Line: Big letdown spot for the Grizzlies following consecutive wins over the Heat, Thunder and Knicks. Plus, the Bobcats have won 5 of the past 7 meetings and one of the losses in this stretch came by just 5 points. In other words, they've been within the current number 6 times in 7 meetings against Memphis. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in the series, and the Grizzlies are on a 1-4 ATS slide in Charlotte.

4* Major on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 41-18-3 ATS in their last 62 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. This is a tough spot for the Knicks, who are playing their second road game in as many night. Plus, Memphis is full of confidence right now after beating the Heat and Thunder by double digits in its last two.

4* Major on Pacers -2.5
Bottom Line: The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games versus teams that have a losing record. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at Indiana. Pound the Pacers.

5* NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Spurs -5
Bottom Line: You better have a darn good reason if you're going to fade the Spurs as they are 45-18-5 ATS in their last 68 games overall and 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 home games. I definitely don't have a good enough reason to go against them tonight as the home team is on a 3-0-1 ATS run in this series, and the Knicks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to San Antonio. The Spurs have won two in a row and 11 of the last 13 meetings. Pound San Antonio.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Warriors -1.5
Bottom Line: The Warriors went 18-8 ATS last season in games following 2 or more consecutive defeats, and I'm ready to take advantage of the first occurrence of this trend this season. The Warriors won last season's lone meeting by 3 in Atlanta. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Cavaliers +6
Bottom Line: The Nets are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 home games, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams that allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road meetings meetings in the series. Plus, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

4* Major on Magic +7
Bottom Line: The Magic are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games versus top-caliber teams that outscore the opposition by 9 points or more per game.

4* Major on Raptors +9.5
Bottom Line: The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on no rest while the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest. The Raptors played the Pacers to a two-point game in the season's first meeting and haven't lost to the Pacers by more then 5 points in any of the past 5 meetings.

4* Major on Suns +5
Bottom Line: The Suns are on a 9-1 ATS run at home versus teams that have a losing record on the road. Also, the home team is on a 19-7-1 ATS run in the series.

4* Major on Pistons +6.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The home team is on a 4-1 ATS run in series and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

4* Major on Bucks +4
Bottom Line: The Bucks are an impressive 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. The underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS run in the series.

4* Major on Kings +9.5
Bottom Line: The Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Lakers are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.

4* Major on Hawks +6.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, and the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.

4* Major on Magic +8
Bottom Line: The Orlando Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Meanwhile, teams coached by Avery Johnson are just 9-31 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more.

4* Major on Warriors +2
Bottom Line: The Warriors are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss.

4* Major on Trailblazers +3
Bottom Line: The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 1-8 ATS in the last 9 games in Portland. The Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home.

4* Major on Jazz -8
Bottom Line: The Suns are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win.

4* Major on Celtics +1.5
Bottom Line: The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 0 days' rest. The underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Cavaliers +4
Bottom Line: The Suns are getting too much respect here. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Trailblazers +1
Bottom Line: The home team is on a 7-3 ATS run in the series, and L.A. is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 in Portland.

4* Major on Clippers +2
Bottom Line: The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road contests.

4* Major on Pistons +5.5
Bottom Line: The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Sacramento.

4* Major on Jazz -2.5
Bottom Line: The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Raptors +6.5
Bottom Line: Toronto is 20-6 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 seasons and 11-2 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest division,6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 0 days' rest,9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Western Conference,4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference,3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.

4* Major on 76ers +1
Bottom Line: The 76ers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 meetings with New Orleans.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Bulls -8.5
Bottom Line: Da Bulls have been fantastic in bounce back spots at 30-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. They are also a sweet 24-12 ATS when they check into a matchup with wins in 2 of their last 3 games. They have won by an average of 10.8 points in this scenario. These trends tell us the Bulls have been extremely reliable when they're motivated and in good form. Pound the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Kings -2
Bottom Line: The Kings are better than their 0-3 record leads you to believe. They have yet to play a game at home and have played the Bulls and Pacers very tough. The Warriors are 2-1 and have a win against the Clippers, but the Clippers were in letdown mode following a big win over the Lakers. This is Sac's first home game of the season, and it will be jacked as it looks to find the win column. The Kings have been arguably the best defensive team in the league in the early going, limiting opponents to just 39.2 percent shooting overall and 16.7 percent from beyond the arc. At home and hungry, I like the Kings to get the "W" tonight.

4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Raptors -3
Bottom Line: The Minnesota Timberwolves have dropped 14 of their last 15 in this series. They have lost 8 straight in Toronto and are just 1-7 ATS in those games. Without injured starters Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, I don't see the T-Wolves getting past a Toronto team that will be hungry for its first win of the season.

4* Major on Warriors +9
Bottom Line: The Warriors are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Clippers.

4* Major on Cavs +6.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Milwaukee following last night's big win at Boston. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win,0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

4* Major on Trailblazers +6
Bottom Line: The road team is on a 4-1 ATS run in the series, and the underdog is on a 20-8 ATS roll. Also, the Rockets are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

4* Major on Nuggets +9
Bottom Line: The Nuggets, who have won 11 of the last 13 meetings, are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. They are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games and 28-10 ATS in their last 38 vs. the Eastern Conference.

4* Major on Lakers +1.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers haven't started a 0-3 since 1978. I fully expect them to find the win column tonight versus a team they have owned over the years. Recently, the Lakers have won 2 in a row and 5 of 7 against the Clippers. It has certainly mattered which of these Staples Center co-tenants has been the home team as the team with its season-ticket holders in the stands is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. It's also important to note that the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

4* Major on Knicks +6
Bottom Line: Riding high off a big season-opening win over Boston on ring night, expect Miami to suffer a letdown here. The Knicks are an impressive 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

4* Major NBA on TNT *BLOOD BATH* on Spurs -2.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs have been a sweet investment at 40-17-4 ATS in their last 61 games overall. They are an even sweeter 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. The home team in on a 4-1 ATS run in this matchup, and San Antonio won 3 of 4 home contests against the Thunder last season.

4* Major on Hornets +6.5
Bottom Line: The Hornets are showing good value catching this many points considering they played the Spurs to within 2 and 3 points in a pair of meetings in New Orleans last season. The Hornets have been a reliable underdog as they are on a 57-40 ATS run in the role. They went 22-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points last season. It also can't go unmentioned that the Hornets have covered the number in each of their last nine home games.

5* Wiseguy NBA Play of the Day on Pistons -2.5
Bottom Line: The Pistons came on strong down the stretch last season and were consistently good all year at home where they went 18-15. Houston has been flipped on its head with the James Harden deal. I expect it to take some time for the team to adjust to playing with the new focal point of the offense. It will also take Harden time to adjust to playing against opposing starting units. He's used to mopping up against reserves. Detroit has been a sweet play in games odds makers expect to be close. It is on an 11-0 ATS run in games when the line is between +3 and -3.

4* Major on Raptors +2
Bottom Line: I'll gladly take the Raptors in the home underdog role tonight considering Indiana's top scorer (Danny Granger) is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (TNT) on Celtics +6.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics are an impressive 124-94 ATS as a road underdog under coach Rivers. They have lost these games on average but only by 2.8 points. Boston is on a 13-3 ATS run in road games against Southeast division opponents and has won these games by an average of 0.5 points. The Celtics are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus the Heat. Pound Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Thunder/Heat UNDER 194
Bottom Line: The defensive intensity is often at its height in elimination games as both teams have plenty of motivation. I expect to see both teams play their best defense of the series tonight. 202 total points were scored in Game 4 after just 176 were scored in Game 3 as the Heat made 10 3-pointers (4 more than they average). You can bet OKC won't give Miami the same looks tonight. You can also bet Westbrook won't have the same game he had and the same goes for Chalmers. Plays Under on any team in the NBA Finals are 108-66 since 1996. Also, Miami is 10-2 Under in a home game when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season. We've only seen an average of 183.7 total points scored in these games. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PUNISHER* on Thunder +3.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Miami. This team has been solid on the road all season, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong tonight. OKC is an awesome 18-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive defeats over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average of 7.3 points in this situation. I can't see Heat holding the Thunder down offensively 3 games in a row. OKC has too many weapons. We'll take the points for insurance, but I expect an outright win for the Thunder as they make this a series.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Thunder/Heat UNDER 194
Bottom Line: Plays Under on any team in the NBA Finals is 106-64 since 1996. Also, plays Under on any team in a playoff series that is tied are 88-52 the last 5 seasons. Miami is 9-1 Under in home games when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points this season. We've seen just 182.7 total points scored on average in these games. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Heat's last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miami is awesome defensively at home where it is only giving up 89.0 ppg. It held the Thunder to 93 points when these teams met in Miami during the regular season. Only 191 total points were scored in that game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PUNISHER* on Heat +5.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are a team of response. The fact they lost Game 1 by 11 points bodes extremely well for us as they are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a defeat of 10 points or more. It is also worth mentioning that the road team has covered the number in 11 of the last 15 meetings between these two. Miami has a nice advantage in terms of experience having played in the Finals last year. This is uncharted territory for the Thunder. They were very fortunate to come back in Game 1 after falling behind by 13. Miami has an excellent chance to win this one straight up so we'll take the points.

4* Major NBA Finals *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Heat/Thunder UNDER 197
Bottom Line: Miami takes pride in its defense, but it can't be proud of its defensive effort in Game 1 - allowing the Thunder to shoot 51.9% from the floor. That was just the 2nd time the Heat have allowed a foe to shoot 50% or better this postseason. With Miami picking up its defensive intensity and limiting OKCs fastbreak points, I expect this one to come in under the number. Plays Under on any team in the finals is 106-62 since 1996, including 32-16 the last 5 seasons. Also, the Under is 11-4 in the Heat's last 15 games as an underdog, 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 6-2-1 in their last 9 vs. the Western Conference while the Under is 19-7 in the Thunder's last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PUNISHER* on Heat +5.5
Bottom Line: After blowing a 2-1 lead in the 2011 NBA Finals and losing the series to Dallas, LeBron James has been on a mission. He has deferred to Dwayne Wade at times throughout the playoffs but made a decision in Game 6 of the East Finals that this is his team and he has to carry them. I expect him to do just that tonight as the Heat take the Thunder right down to the wire. We can't ignore the fact that the road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two sides. Also, the underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings and the Heat are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points!

5* Wiseguy Game 7 "Total" Blowout on Celtics/Heat UNDER 178.5
Bottom Line: With a spot in the NBA Finals on the line, we can expect both of these elite defensive teams to get after it on the defensive end with an intensity we've yet to see this series. The Under is 10-4-1 in the Celtics' last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Under is even 11-2 the last 3 seasons in playoff games when Boston is in position to close out a series. The Under is 25-10 in the Heat's last 35 home games and 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. James absolutely went off in Game 6 and the score still finished under the number. He won't have as much success tonight - Boston will make sure of it. Plus, I expect the pace of this game to be even slower as both teams really try to value each possession and the defenses make like very difficult on the offenses.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Heat/Celtics UNDER 179.5
Bottom Line: These two teams have combined to score at least 184 points in each of the last 4 games so odds makers are clearly looking to trap the public with a line that clearly entices them to take the over. We won't fall into the trap. It's do-or-die for the Heat, and Boston basically feels the same way as it does not want to go back to Miami for a Game 7. The defenses have really picked up the intensity in the past two games, and I expect both sides to tighten the screws even more here. History is largely on our side as plays Under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less in the 6th game of a playoff series are 18-0 the last 5 seasons. Going back to 1996, this system has produced a 44-12 record while teams fitting into it have combined for just 166.3 points. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Spurs +5
Bottom Line: Recent history asserts that the Spurs are being undervalued here. Playing on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) that outscore their opponents by 6+ points/game - after 2 straight games where both teams (it and its opponent) scored 100 points or more - has produced a 25-6 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been underdogs of 5.4 points on average but have only lost by an average of 0.1. We'll take the points as San Antonio takes the Thunder down to the wire with an excellent opportunity to earn an outright victory.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: Bosh is expected to play tonight, and his presence on the interior should really open things up for James and Wade. This may seem like a big number, but consider that Miami has won by 8 points or more in 7 of its last 10 home games versus the Celtics. That's a 70% trend I won't hesitate to get behind. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Spurs -5
Bottom Line: The home team is a perfect 8-0 in the 2012 conference finals. In addition, the Spurs are 11-0 in their last 11 home games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus the Thunder. These 6 wins have come by an average of 10.3 points. The Spurs won Game 2 by 9 points and would have won Game 1 by 6 had OKC not made a meaningless three-pointer at the buzzer. Given these trends, I'll ride the home team tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Parlay of the Year on Heat -1.5/Under 180
Bottom Line: I expect the Miami Heat to win Game 4 and I expect them to do so with defense. The Heat allowed Boston to shoot 50% in Game 3. They hadn't allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or higher this postseason before that. Miami in an elite defensive team, and it will really tighten the screws here. The key to slowing down Boston is slowing down Rondo. He will be the focus of Miami's defense this evening. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win while the Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The Under is 7-2 in the Heat's last 9 games following a SU loss and 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings between these teams in Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA Parlay of the Year on Heat -1.5/Under 180
Bottom Line: I expect the Miami Heat to win Game 4 and I expect them to do so with defense. The Heat allowed Boston to shoot 50% in Game 3. They hadn't allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or higher this postseason before that. Miami in an elite defensive team, and it will really tighten the screws here. The key to slowing down Boston is slowing down Rondo. He will be the focus of Miami's defense this evening. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win while the Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The Under is 7-2 in the Heat's last 9 games following a SU loss and 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings between these teams in Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder responded in Game 3, and I expect them to keep right on rolling at home where they are a perfect 6-0 in these playoffs with an 11.8-point average margin of victory. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as an underdog and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Celtics UNDER 180.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings between these teams in Boston, where we have become accustomed to seeing defensive battles. I have no doubt we'll see Boston's best defensive effort of the series tonight as it tries to get back in the series. The Celtics are 16-5 Under after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and have held their foes to just 86.5 points in these games while scoring 90.5. Also, plays Under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more, are 24-4 since 1996. We've only seen an average of 177.6 total points scored in this situation. I expect both teams to play at a slower pace after such a taxing Game 2. That pace will be very conducive to the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -4
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 31-7 at home this season. Even figuring in the losses, they have won at home by an average score of 105.3 to 95.5. They are an undefeated 5-0 at home in these playoffs, winning these contests by an average score of 100.6 to 90.4. The Thunder know they must win this game to have any chance of winning the series, so we can expect their best effort of the series tonight. The Spurs have been rolling, but they haven't played a game against this good of a team on the road in a really long time. Lay the points as Kevin Durant and company rise to the occasion.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Celtics/Heat UNDER 177
Bottom Line: We only saw a total of 172 total points scored in Game 1, and the Celtics didn't play the kind of defense we are accustomed to seeing from them. I expect this to be an ugly series as both of these teams are elite defensively. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 179.5 or less (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 36-11 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 168.2 total points scored in this situation. Also, this system is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 seasons. The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics' last 7 road games and 10-3-1 in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Under is 25-8 in the Heat's last 33 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +5
Bottom Line: The Thunder lost Game 1, but we're talking about one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. The Thunder are 59-28-1 ATS in their last 88 games following a loss. Additionally, OKC is a flawless 10-0 ATS in road games when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won these games by an average of 5.5 points. Plus, the Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -8
Bottom Line: With just 1 days' rest since defeating Philly in Game 7, Boston hasn't had a chance to recover physically and emotionally. The C's had success against the Heat in the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal and Boston is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Plus, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge a loss to an opponent that held them to less than 85 points, provided that foe is checking in off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, are 45-20 ATS since 1996. This system is a stellar 11-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs won the last two regular season meetings with Oklahoma City, but the Thunder are an impressive 30-16 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 2.2 points in these games. The Thunder are an impressive 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 postseason games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Take OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Celtics -5.5
Bottom Line: The home team has had the overwhelming advantage in this matchup, and I expect that to remain the case in Game 7. The home side is on a 10-2 run, including a perfect 3-0 run in the last 3 games. Those 3 wins have come by 9, 16 and 7 points. In fact, the last 10 wins by the home team have come by an average of 12.6 points. Boston is 10-1 in its last 11 home contests with those 10 wins coming by an average of 10.3 points. The Celtics are also a perfect 4-0 in these playoffs following a loss and an unbeaten 2-0 this postseason when playing with 2 days of rest. They have won their 4 bounce back games by an average of 10.5 points and their 2 games on 2 days' rest by an average of 11.0 points. Pound the Celtics.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +3.5
Bottom Line: The numbers are in Indiana's favor tonight as home teams off a road loss by 10 points or more with a winning percentage of .600 to .750 that are matched up against a team with a winning record are 68-31 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games versus a squad with a home winning percentage above .600 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The underdog is on a 26-12-1 ATS run when these two teams get together. Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Celtics/76ers UNDER 176
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams in Game 6 of a playoff series when the total is 179.5 or less has produced a powerful 42-12 mark since 1996, including a perfect 16-0 record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have combined for just 166.6 points on average. With Philly playing to stay alive and Boston wanting to close out the series in hopes of getting a little extra rest before the East finals, I'm expecting an absolute defensive war. Pound the UNDER!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Pacers/Heat UNDER 181.5
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a tied playoff series, provided both teams have winning records, has produced a 36-8 record that is an unbeaten 6-0 this season. Miami have played to the UNDER in 18 of its last 23 and Indiana has finished UNDER the number in 7 of its last 10. I'm expecting a hard-fought defensive battle tonight as both teams try to seize control of the series. Bet the UNDER.

4* Major NBA GM 5 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +7
Bottom Line: The Pacers aren't getting the respect they deserve here. They have won in Miami in this series and took the Heat to overtime in Miami during the regular season. It took spectacular games from LeBron James and Dwayne Wade and poor games from Roy Hibbert and David West for the Heat to win Game 4. The odds are certainly against James and Wade both going off the same way again. The underdog is 26-11-1 ATS in the last 38 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Lakers +7.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are showing some nice value catching this many points considering the Thunder have only recorded 2 playoff victories by 8 points or more this postseason. The past three games in this series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, and I expect another close contest as the Lakers fight hard in the face of elimination. The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 at home. Plus, they are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home contests when valued as a favorite of 5.0 to 10.5 points. We'll take the Lakers.

4* Major on 76ers +6
Bottom Line: Considering both games played in Boston during this series have been decided by a single point and considering Philly has either won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 12 of the last 17 meetings, the 76ers are clearly showing value at this number. The Celtics are only 4-17 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the 76ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Celtics, including 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Boston. Take the points as Game 5 goes right down to the wire.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Spurs -7.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs took LA's best shot yesterday and hit back even harder. San Antonio rallied from 24 down to earn a double-digit win. That took any wind that might have been left out of LA's sails. Now, I expect them to finish the job in impressive fashion. The Spurs are 39-10-4 ATS in their last 53 games overall, 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 road games and 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Spurs are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Clippers, including 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Heat -121
Bottom Line: Road favorites with a winning record on the season that are coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more are an impressive 35-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. They have won by an average of 8.1 points in this situation. Look for the Heat to bounce back strong following a very poor showing in Game 3.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Thunder +1
Bottom Line: The Lakers showed heart last night, but the veteran bodies of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace will have a very difficult time responding without a day of rest to recuperate. The Thunder and younger and deeper, and I love their chances here. The Thunder are 58-28-1 ATS in their last 87 games following a loss, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. The Lakers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The Lakers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games. Pound the Thunder.

4* Major on Clippers +5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs have been dominant in the first two games of this series but that won't keep me off the Clippers here. After all, plays against favorites leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 54-26 ATS since 1996. These teams have been favorites of 6.5 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.0 points. Plus, the Clippers are 13-4 ATS this season when out to avenge consecutive losses to an opponents. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -130
Bottom Line: I still really like Philly ATS tonight but am taking them on the ML for insurance at a nice price. Boston is in for a letdown following its Game 3 performance. Consider that Boston is 19-34 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 8-23 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Philly and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. We can let one bad game by the 76ers make us forget that they had been perfect at home in the playoffs and perfect at home against Boston this season with a pair of blowout wins. 76ers bounce back strong here.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Clippers +11
Bottom Line: The Clippers are showing good value catching double figures as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS this season in road contests when out to avenge a prior loss to an opponent this season. Also, the Clippers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -121
Bottom Line: I really like the Heat laying a small number, but I have gone ahead and taken them on the money line for insurance. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Pacers have been awesome fade material when checking into a game with recent success against the spread. In fact, Indiana is 1-15 ATS after covering the number in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season. The Pacers have lost these games by an average of 3.5 points. Take Miami.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Heat/Pacers OVER 181.5
Bottom Line: The first 2 games of this series have finished under the number but both teams have shot the ball very poorly, especially from beyond the arc. Expect both sides to relax and shoot the ball much better tonight. Recent history is on our side as well. Consider that home teams facing a total between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - after scoring 90 points or less in 2 consecutive games and up against an opponent coming off a combined score of 175 points or less - have played to the over in 28 of their last 44 games. We have seen these teams score of total of 187.2 points on average in this situation, and I expect to see even more points scored than that here.