This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LX Side Winner. We have faded New England in all three playoff games and got burned twice but now it is time to back the Patriots in an overinflated line and over a key number. The underdog has been the way to go recently and it makes perfect sense as the public loves the favorites which is the case again this year with the Seahawks getting the majority of the early money. Since 2004, underdogs have gone 15-7 ATS including five straight covers and while the contrarian in us likes to fade a streak like that, not when it is a public one. Going back a little further and going number specific, underdogs of three points or more are 13-4 ATS since 2001-02. The matchup seems to be the reason the Seahawks are the public team and their defense is great but we are still not entirely sold on the offense facing a strong New England defense. This will be the fourth straight elite defense the Patriots will face and while they have not been able to put up the points, the defense did its work and with Josh McDaniels looking at what the Rams have been able to do, they should have a solid plan.  The weather factored into both sides for sure so the raw stats are somewhat skewed. The strength of schedule is another concern (guilty here) with the Patriots possessing the easiest in the NFL but they have taken care of business and that is what matters. According to PFR, the schedule was last at -4.5 and going back in Super Bowl history, teams with a strength of schedule at -4 or worse have actually gone 3-1. Here, we play on teams after allowing nine points or less in the last game going up against an opponent after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 51-24 (68 percent) since 2021. 10* (110) New England Patriots

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC Championship Winner. The Rams have survived two scares on the road to make it to the NFC Championship and after being favored in those games, they are rightfully underdogs here but they can make a case of being the better team. This will be a case of recency bias as everyone has seen how the Rams have struggled the last two weeks and how dominant Seattle has looked of late with its eight straight wins and now laying a short number. The Seahawks had no issues with the 49ers last week as the injuries definitely played a part. The defense continues to lead the way as they moved ahead of Houston for the No. 1 spot in EPA but let’s not forget the Los Angeles defense that is No. 7 in EPA and the difference in this will be on the offense end. The Rams were the only team in the NFL to finish in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and they are No. 2 in offense coming into this week with Seattle sitting No. 14 and the Rams will be in the Seattle backfield quite often and Sam Darnold will be hounded all night. The contrarian aspect of this game is that the Rams are playing their third straight road playoff game and those teams in the past have not fared well while Seattle has won 11 straight home playoff games (excluding COVID year) so we buck both. 10* (103) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our AFC Championship Winner. It was a rough Divisional Round with a bad call on Houston as C.J. Stroud looked clueless and a bad beat on the Rams which looked as though they would get the cover until the miracle Caleb Williams touchdown to force overtime. The Patriots cruised through two games at home against the Chargers and Texans and now they hit the road as an overvalued favorite which is due to the quarterback situation with Denver. Bo Nix is out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle and it will be Jarret Stidham who is making just his fifth career start and it is not as bad as people may think. Nix is not an elite starter in the NFL but the line move based on his absence is showing that he is so that is incorrect. Stidham will have had the whole week to prepare as opposed to being thrown into the fire and he has been in this system the whole time under Sean Payton. Three backup quarterbacks have made postseason starts at home and all three have won so home field is huge. This is obviously the big talking point but no one is talking about the Denver defense that is No. 8 in EPA and facing Drake Maye making his first road playoff start. Since 1975, home underdogs of four points or more are 9-0 ATS in the playoffs including a Carolina cover this season. 10* (102) Denver Broncos

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Game of the Year. Indiana looks unstoppable and unbeatable at this point and the Hoosiers come in as overwhelming favorites to win the National Championship at -340 and yes we are going contrarian with value in the spread. Indiana had been listed as a 5.5-point favorite prior to the Semifinals and after the Oregon rampage, the Hoosiers were at 7.5 across the board. We have since seen it move to 8.5 which is in reality is a dead number but any extra edge could be huge. The line of scrimmage usually dictates the outcomes of most games and that will certainly be the case here. The Hoosiers usually have that advantage but not here and we start with the Miami defense. College Football Nerds on X provided a great rushing statistic, If you look at their season, in all the close games (Penn State, Iowa, Ohio St.) Indiana was held under 3.5 yards/carry. Every time Indiana ran for 4+ yards/carry vs  a P4, they won by 25+ points. In this matchup, the Hurricanes are tied for No. 7 in the country, allowing 3.0 ypc and in the three CFP games, they have allowed 255 yards on 80 carries (3.2 ypc). Overall, Miami is No. 15 in Defensive EPA and it recorded 13 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in wins over Texas A&M, Ohio St. and Mississippi. Offensively, Miami needs to run the ball and continuously run it even if there is no success early on. Miami ran 51 times against Mississippi and 37 times against Ohio St. and they line has the talent and the power to control and also, surrendered just eight sacks and 15 tackles for loss in the three games. Against Power 4 teams, Indiana has been run on more than 30 times only twice, Penn St. and Iowa and we know the results of those games. Yes, it is easier said than done, but stick to the plan and Miami will cover and has a chance to win outright. 10* (287) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our Divisional Game of the Year. The Rams got away with one against Carolina and the Panthers certainly had their number this season and now they remain on the road in another bad weather game and one that will be much colder. That could have an adverse effect on Los Angeles but Matthew Stafford is 2-3 when playing in a temperature of 30 points or less. Stafford is 4-0 in his playoff career as a favorite and teams coming off a win but who failed to cover and not coming off a bye  are 21-12 ATS since 2003-04 including 8-2 ATS since 2020-21. The top five teams in the Luck Ratings remain alive in the playoffs and coming in at No. 3 is Chicago as the Bears did it yet again. As mentioned last week, Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter and that total went up to seven. They were down 21-3 and outscored Green Bay 25-6 in the fourth quarter including the final 15 points in the final 4:18 of the game. Sure, they can do it again but now face the only remaining team that is in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA. Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 in the Divisional Round since 2003 including 3-22 since 2011. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (393) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. New England passed its first test as it was able to breakaway from the Chargers for a 16-3 win thanks to the defense that allowed just 207 yards against an offensive line that was completely dominated. The offense they face this week is not that much better as far EPA goes but the offensive line is healthy and a much better pass blocking unit, finishing No. 5 in Pass Blocking Efficiency. Drake Maye is the story and in his career he has faced only five winning teams at the time of the game at home, going 2-3 including 1-1 this season with the Chargers being the win. The 16 points scored on offense is an issue not only facing the best defense in the league but since 2011, teams are 4-9 in their next playoff game after scoring under 20 points in a playoff victory. Houston has won 10 straight games which started from that improbable comeback against Jacksonville where it outscored the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter. This comes after starting the season 0-3 and the Texans are one of only seven teams to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start and they are actually the only team to now do it twice. Defense can take over a game and we saw that last week in Pittsburgh as the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA team dominated the Steelers by allowing 175 yards and just six points while scoring two defensive touchdowns. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 2021. 10* (387) Houston Texans

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. Arguably, Pittsburgh should not be here as it got into the postseason, and a home playoff game to go with it, because of a missed 44-yard field goal as time expired but a second life can be revitalizing, especially for a team that is on a 0-6 playoff losing streak which started in 2016. The Steelers are fortunate for sure but get a good matchup at home and while facing a red hot team does not seem ideal, it is just fine. Houston is on a roll and the Texans fans love the momentum but watch what you ask for as teams entering the postseason on a nine or more game winning streak are just 6-19 ATS since 2002 as these teams are essentially overvalued every time as the public loves these big winning streaks but they do not understand the value taken away in the pointspread because of it. We all know the stat, or at least you should, that going back to 1992, the Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football including 12-0 under head coach Mike Tomlin (does not include the 2020 game against Washington when the game actually started at 5:00 PM ET and with no fans in the stands). Bring in Aaron Rodgers who is 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS when playing at home on Monday Night Football. He falls into a champion system as well as since 2003, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 38-17-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (386) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Wild Card Game of the Year. The public loves the Patriots here as they blew through the league by going from a 4-13 record last season to a 14-3 record this season. Playing the easiest schedule in the NFL, not only this season but it ranked as the third-easiest schedule since 1978 and the second-easiest in the 21st century based on opponent performance. As a favorite of three points or more or more, New England is 10-0 straight up and 8-2 ATS, winning those ten games by 17 ppg but the only team with a winning record in those games was, you guessed it, there was not one as the best team was Carolina. This just goes back to the schedule the Patriots have faced as they defeated only one team with a winning record and that was Buffalo who also returned the favor and the only other opponent they faced with a winning record was Pittsburgh which resulted in a loss. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. The Chargers rested last week and are ready to go with an elite defense that allows the fewest 20-yard or more pass plays and an offense featuring Justin Herbert who is 18-12 ATS as an underdog. Here, we play against teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half of the last game. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (383) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. The Packers enter this game as a slight favorite despite coming in on a four-game losing streak but that comes with an asterisk as they rested starters last week, making health more important than momentum and we buy into that decision. One big health issue is the return of tackle Zach Tom who has been out since Week 15. That will help Jordan Love who is fully healthy and comes in ranked No. 2 in Quarterback EPA/Play (Caleb Williams No. 13) and the Packers rely on explosives which is what the Bears defense loves to allow and they will have a big edge. Chicago was one of the luckiest teams this season, or the Bears optimists will call it clutch, but they became the first team in NFL history to win six games when trailing in the final two minutes in the fourth quarter. Quarterbacks make a difference in the postseason and while this is an understatement, it has been dominated by experience. Quarterbacks that are making their first playoff start going up against a quarterback with playoff experience are 20-40 straight up and 20-39-1 ATS and it makes little difference in home/road splits as those inexperienced quarterbacks at home are 12-21 both straight up and against the number. This season, the Packers are 0-6-1 ATS when catching the majority of the money and 6-3 ATS when their opponent is the public side and as of Thursday afternoon, Chicago is getting 71 percent of the money and that is not going to flip when the real public money comes pouring in on the Bears. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (377) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Ducks/Hoosiers Dominator. This is a rematch of the meeting from October 11 where Indiana went to Eugene and won 30-20. The Ducks shut down Texas Tech as they won outright 23-0 as a slight dog. Oregon has dominated since the first meeting with the exception of a two-point win at Iowa and the rematch is in their favor at this number where we do not even need to win outright. In the three rematches in the CFP, the team that won the first meeting is 1-2 in the rematch as Oklahoma and Georgia lost while Mississippi was the only team to sweep but that was against Tulane. The top line rushing numbers for Oregon were not good in the first meeting but it was quarterback Dante Moore that brought it down as the three running backs that ran for more than 10 yards rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries (6.4 ypc) so they can have more success with more running attempts. Moore was not good but the tape from the first game will help immensely. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 26-6 (81.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (275) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFP Canes/Rebels Enforcer. Mississippi is on borrowed time and this is the spot where it ends. The Rebels are off a huge win over Georgia and as soon as the game ended, the entire assistant coaching staff that will be heading to LSU left for Baton Rouge to be available for the opening of the transfer portal. This is not ideal for preparation as they are getting just a week as opposed to having 12 days to get ready for Georgia which was a team they knew already anyway. The offense was great against the Bulldogs but Georgia did not have much of a pass rush all year long, and against Mississippi, it had no sacks and had just three tackles for loss. Miami is a different story and facing a similar quarterback like they saw when they played Texas A&M, they sacked Marcel Reed seven times and followed that up by sacking Julian Sayin five times and in total, the Hurricanes allowed 17 total points and 134 total rushing yards. This defense is going to be the difference. Here, we play on teams on a neutral field after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 22-11 (66.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (273) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Baltimore comes in as the road favorite and we have seen the number go up and down but it remains north of the key number of 3. The Ravens are laying because Lamar Jackson is playing and while this typically would be a huge edge, he has not been healthy for a long time and his performance is way down from last season. The Ravens lost the first meeting at home by five points as a 5.5-point favorite and we are not seeing a proper line adjustment in what is a heavily underdog dominated season. The underdog is 30-12-3 ATS since 2005 including 25-7-3 ATS during the regular season and head coach Mike Tomlin has led the Steelers to a 13-2 record when scoring 10 points or less in their previous game including a 2-0 record this season, the win in Baltimore being one of those after losing to Buffalo 26-7. Here. We play against road teams off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 36-6 (85.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (350) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New Orleans is closing in on a strong ending to the season as it has won four straight games heading into the season finale. The Saints are 6-10 following the winning streak but two of those wins were against the Buccaneers and Panthers, which have been as inconsistent as any teams in the league, and the Jets and Titans, two of the three worst teams in the league according to Sagarin. They now face a team that has also shown recent signs of consistency as the Falcons have won three straight games following a win over the Rams on Monday night. The best they can finish is 8-9 which would put them in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South but tiebreakers have already eliminated them. Both teams would love to go out with decent winning streaks but we give the edge to the home team that is much healthier. Here, we play against underdogs after four or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season. This situation is 57-22 (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (358) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is another game meaningless for both sides and namely the Packers as they are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC and their goal is to get out of here unscathed. Green Bay is resting mostly every significant starter to stay healthy as the learned the tough lesson last season. The one downfall is that the Packers could enter the postseason with no momentum as they have already lost their last three games but entering the playoffs healthy is more important. Minnesota had a lost season as it went through a 1-6 stretch after opening 3-2 and playoff hopes were lost but the Vikings have responded with four straight wins and a victory here means a winning season and that is big going into the offseason. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings defense is No. 1 in EPA and now they get to square off against Clayton Tune. Here, we play on teams off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (336) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Neither team has anything to play for and it is Cleveland that played its most important game in the second half of the season, defeating Pittsburgh and spoiling the Steelers shot at clinching last week. The Browns are now back on the road and were in a mismatch to begin with but coming off that win spells letdown and the added road struggles make Cleveland a big fade. The Browns have been solid at home, or at least competitive against the number, as they are 16-10 ATS over the last three seasons but on the road over the same stretch they are 6-18 ATS. The Bengals have been prolific on offense since Joe Burrow came back from his injury with the exception of the 24-0 loss to Baltimore. The defense has improved as well as the Bengals were No. 32 in EPA through the first half but have shown positive adjustments. Here, we play against road teams averaging 5.5 or less passing ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 2016. 10* (352) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Saturday Primetime Winner. This game will determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle has put itself into position for the top seed as it has won six straight games following a win in Carolina last week, breaking open a 3-3 game at halftime with the defense leading the way, allowing only 139 total yards. The Seahawks remain on the road where they are 7-1 with the lone loss coming at Los Angeles against the Rams by only two points and this is the reason they are the favorites. The 49ers have also won six straight games while covering all of those and while that would suggest a fade, not at this number. The 49ers have been outgained five times this season but four of those were on the road and the one instance at home was against the Rams by only eight total yards. San Francisco won the first meeting by four points but it was a much bigger domination as they outgained the Seahawks by 154 yards but it was the red zone inefficiency along with penalty issues that kept it close. Here, we play against teams after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (362) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our Duke’s Mayo Bowl Smash. Mississippi St. comes in 5-7 and is favored in a bowl game after coming into the season with a win total of three after winning only two games last season. The Bulldogs find themselves in the Duke's Mayo Bowl after both Iowa St. and Kansas St. opted out of playing a postseason game as they got in per their high APR numbers and also leapfrogged Florida St., Auburn, UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Rutgers and Temple because they all declined invitations as well. Ther offense was surprisingly good as it finished No. 52 in EPA but quarterback Blake Shapen has opted out and freshman Kamario Taylor will get the start. Wake Forest counters with a defense that is No. 11 in EPA and No. 8 in Success Rate and the Demon Deacons should dictate the game. The offense was below average at No. 85 in EPA but faces an awful defense that ranked No. 88 in EPA and allowed 35 points or more in half of their games including 40 or more points four times. Here, we play on neutral field teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (269) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our Tide/Hoosiers Enforcer. Indiana is the story of college football for the second straight season as the Hoosiers went through the season undefeated which included winning the Big Ten Conference Championship over Ohio St., hanging the Buckeyes their first loss in 16 games. The Hoosiers came in as 3.5-point underdogs in that game and now are seeing over a 10-point swing and it is just too much. Indiana put up crazy points over the second half of the season, scoring 31 points or more in five of their last seven games but all five of those were against non-bowl teams. The defenses will be the focal point and while Indiana is No. 14 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17. Offensively, the Crimson Tide were below average by their standards at No. 31 in EPA with the running game being the biggest issue with the last two games showing it at just 29 total yards on the ground. This is where we go contrarian as Indiana has allowed only one FBS team to grab 100 rushing yards. This is just the 13th time the Tide have been underdogs over the last 17 years and have gone 8-4 ATS. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 42-12 (77.8 percent) since 2021. 10* (261) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our Canes/Buckeyes Dominator. This line opened at 9.5 and has remained steady and we are going with the biggest underdog of the CFP Quarterfinals and the Hurricanes. Miami owned the line of scrimmage against Texas A&M as the Hurricanes had seven sacks and nine tackles for loss on defense against an Aggies team that rarely gave up either. The Buckeyes allowed Indiana to get five sacks of Julian Sayin in the Big Ten Championship and it was by far the most pressure he’s faced this season. This Miami team showed its defense is not overrated as they held Texas A&M to 89 yards rushing and that was the Aggies biggest strength. The Miami offensive line allowed only two sacks and six tackles for loss against Texas A&M which was among the nation’s best in both categories. The key for Miami will be being able to keep their run game going and not having to get into a drop back game. While the Buckeyes defense is one of the best in the country, eight teams they faced were ranked outside the top 50 in scoring including three in the bottom 15 so it is a bit skewed. Indiana gave Miami the blueprint on how to beat Ohio St. and the Hurricanes have the personnel. Here, we play on underdogs after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in December games. This situation is 21-8 (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (257) Miami Hurricanes

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Citrus Bowl Smash. All of the chaos at Michigan is fueling this line but things have settled down. The firing of head coach Sherrone Moore was obviously the big news and that could have been the beginning of the end for the roster but there have only been a handful of opt-outs and interim head coach Biff Pogi said there would be no more heading into the game. The big one is quarterback Bryce Underwood who was feared to opt out but will play and he leads an offense that was actually better than what has been said as the Wolverines finished No. 35 in EPA and they did lean more on the running game which was No. 11 in EPA. Normally this would be a tough matchup but the losses on the Texas defense are enormous. Of their top 12 tacklers, seven hit the transfer portal or opted out but they did retain their top tackler. The Longhorns are extremely thin across all three levels. The Texas offense will have Arch Manning at quarterback but lost second leading receiver DeAndre Moore and the running game lost their top three running backs to the transfer portal so Michigan has the defensive edge. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (253) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Reliaquest Bowl Winner. This is a great matchup on paper as it is strength against strength and weakness against weakness so we look at the variables surrounding it. Iowa closed the season with a pair of wins over Michigan St. and Nebraska to finish 8-4 and it could have been a lot better. The Hawkeyes lost to rival Iowa St. by three points and its three Big Ten Conference defeats were by 12 combined points against Indiana, Oregon and USC. The first two were at home but this is a team with yet another potent defense and those three losses were against explosive offenses, similar to Vanderbilt, and they held them to 21.3 ppg. The Hawkeyes have a challenge against this Commodores offense and Diego Pavia but how much is he vested after losing the Heisman and partying across the country after. One of his biggest weapons, tight end Eli Stowers, opted out and he was the main third down target. The Hawkeyes offense struggled at times but only against excellent defenses and against below average units, they put up 37 or more points five times and Vanderbilt comes in No. 119 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (249) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Music City Bowl Dominator. The line has come down considerably with Tennessee likely not being fully vested even though it is taking place in Nashville. The Volunteers were solid on offense as they finished No. 22 in EPA but are without a big piece. The good news for Tennessee is that quarterback Joey Aguilar is not opting out and will be playing but he will be without his top wide receiver as Chris Brazzell II who led the team with 1,017 yards and nine touchdowns and this will allow Illinois to focus more on the run game and stopping Desean Bishop. Defensively is where the real concern is as the Volunteers were No. 122 in EPA after being one of the best defenses in the country last season. They are going to be without three of their top tacklers on top of it and Illinois will take advantage as quarterback Luke Altmyer will be playing and he should have his full complement as any players in the transfer portal will be allowed to play and only one is a starter anyway. Illinois has played the tougher schedule and looking at the Tennessee schedule, its best win was 5-7 Mississippi St. in overtime and that was its only win against a bowl team. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (246) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our Independence Bowl Smash. Louisiana Tech opened as a touchdown favorite and it has moved up slightly and for good reason as Coastal Carolina is one of the worst teams in a bowl game this season. The Chanticleers finished 6-6 with only one win against a bowl team and that was a win over Appalachian St. which was 5-7 and got into a bowl game because of a lack of eligible teams. In their five losses against bowl teams, they lost by 41, 38, 40, 5 and 49 points so they were rarely competitive. Overall, Coastal Carolina outgained only two FBS opponents and was outgained by an average of 167.6 ypg and the offense is in trouble here as starting quarterback Samari Collier is questionable and both starting tackles are in the transfer portal and will not play. Louisiana Tech is 7-5 with all five losses against bowl teams but four of those were on the road and the lone home loss was by one point. This is obviously not a home game but it is in Shreveport so the Bulldogs will have the crowd edge and they come in with the much better defense. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (244) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Primetime Winner. With the Rams coming off a loss last Thursday and playing on a long week against a non-playoff team, they are going to be very popular and we are already seeing that with 81 percent of the money and 82 percent of the handle on them but we also have a reverse line move with the line having come down. The public is right sometimes though and this is one of those spots. Despite the loss and the current playoff projections having the Seahawks as the No. 1 seed heading into Sunday, the Rams are still the Super Bowl favorites at +425. Los Angeles is the only team in the NFL in the top ten in both Offensive and Defensive EPA and as a matter of fact, it is No. 1 and No. 3 respectively. The Falcons have won two straight games, both of which have been on the road, one against the regressing Buccaneers and the other against the reeling Cardinals. The Falcons have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2016. 10* (431) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Cincinnati and Arizona obviously have nothing to play for and in games like this, we look at the big dog first especially when numbers actually put them in a favorable position. The Cardinals are that team. They have lost seven straight games, three of which have been by one possession bringing their season total to nine in 12 games. Arizona has won the yardage battle in six of its last 11 games and of the five exceptions, four were against current playoff teams. Overall, they have been outgained by just 18.0 ypg. Cincinnati broke out last week against Miami as it scored a season-high 45 points behind a big day from Joe Burrow. The Bengals are now favored by over a touchdown which is the most they have been favored by this season and that is certainly aggressive for a team that has a defense ranked dead last in the NFL in Defensive EPA. They are getting outgained by 82.6 ypg and have outgained only three opponents and in those games, they won the turnovers a combined 10-1. Here, we play on road teams after seven or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This situation is 45-17 (72.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (407) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This game could be meaningless for Pittsburgh as it will know ahead of time if Baltimore loses on Saturday against Green Bay and should that happen, the Steelers will secure the AFC North. With Lamar Jackson out, it is looking like a scenario that will happen but Green Bay has ruled out Jordan Love so it is not a guarantee. This makes it important to bet this one early because if it means nothing, the line will move and any Cleveland value will be gone. Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over Lions last week which was its third straight win to move one game over Baltimore with a win in hand over the Ravens and it is very unlikely the Steelers can move higher than the No. 4 seed. Cleveland is here just to play out the season at 3-12 and it is coming off a solid effort in a three-point loss against Buffalo last week and this marks the final home games of the season as the Browns close at Cincinnati next week. The defense has regressed somewhat the last few weeks but Cleveland is still No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off an upset win as an underdog. This situation is 149-76 (66.2 percent). 10* (418) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Star Attraction. While Indianapolis has lost both games with Philip Rivers starting at quarterback, it has been competitive as it lost in the final seconds against Seattle and then last week, the final against the 49ers was skewed by a long interception returned for a touchdown in the final three minutes. The Colts playoff hopes have dimmed after a 7-1 start as they have lost six of their last seven games obviously because of the quarterback situation. They have been outgained in their last five games, all losses and this puts them in a buy low spot as they were an early sell high team once the season began after the red hot start. The Colts could actually be eliminated from the postseason should Houston win Saturday at the Chargers and while it could affect the line, it would only help it so this should be a wait and see bet but Indianapolis will still compete on Sunday against its rival. Jacksonville has been hot as after a fourth quarter meltdown against the Texans, it has won six straight games to take over first place in the AFC South but this is a tough spot after the upset in Denver. Here, we play against road teams in conference games, off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 22-4 (84.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (424) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New England bounced back from its collapse against Buffalo with a come-from-behind win against Baltimore, scoring the final 15 points. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win and a Bills loss either this week or next week or if they win out here and next week against the Dolphins. The probability sits at 70 percent but we do not care about a win as we are dealing with the overpriced line as this one has gone from an opener of 9 points up to 13.5 points as of late Friday. It is definitely aggressive in a divisional game and New England is going to be shorthanded as it will be without five starters in addition to being down Will Campbell and Milton Williams already and they could be without backup running back TreVeyon Henderson. The Jets season cannot end any sooner but it is still about pride and playing spoiler against a division rival. New York has been leveled in its last three games by 24, 28 and 23 points so the line makes sense from that standpoint but this is about the spot and not past results. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points outgaining opponents by 1.5 or more yards per pass going up against teams outgained by 1.5 or more yards per pass. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. 10* (426) New York Jets

This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our Texas Bowl Annihilator. LSU was another Power 4 disappointment this season and head coach Brian Kelly paid the price as he was fired after a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M and the Tigers closed 2-2 after that under interim head coach Frank Wilson III. He will remain the coach in the Texas Bowl before he goes to Mississippi and the roster will be pretty decimated as he will be bringing a lot of players with him when he takes over an unknown role within the offense. The offense was bad to begin with and it will be Michael Van Buren at quarterback who will be making his fourth start. The Tigers are No. 117 in Offensive EPA and will be facing a very underrated Houston defense that started great, had a lapse and then ended great. The Houston offense got a boost as quarterback Conner Weigman announced shortly after the end of the regular season that he planned to return for his senior season after throwing for 2,475 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 644 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cougars head coach Willie Fritz came into a below average situation and after going 4-8 in his first season, he led them to a 9-3 record. The opt-pouts and transfers are minimal and the Cougars are going to be extremely motivated in getting that tenth win. 10* (240) Houston Cougars

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. We played against Houston last week as it survived a scare against the Raiders and pulled out a 23-21 win to make it seven straight wins while snapping a four-game ATS winning streak. The Texans were likely caught looking ahead to this game and took Las Vegas lightly as this is a big game where they can leapfrog the Chargers with a win and move from No. 7 to No. 6 or possibly even No. 5 should the Bills go down against the Eagles. Houston still has a shot at the AFC South albeit unlikely with the Jaguars up one game and closing with the slumping Colts and the Titans. The Chargers are back home following a pair of road wins to make it four straight victories and they can still take the AFC West with a win here and then a win at Denver in the season finale next week and they still have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference. They will be the public side here because they are at home and playing with revenge from a playoff loss last season where Justin Herbert tossed four interceptions. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after seven or more consecutive wins. This situation is 36-19 (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (411) Houston Texans

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Pop Tarts Bowl Dominator. Motivation is a huge factor in bowl games and it can be hard to get a read on some teams on how motivated they will be and BYU is going to be highly motivated as it will be out to prove a point that it belonged in the CFP with the Cougars only two losses coming against Texas Tech. One positive sign for them is that head coach Kalani Sitake turned down Penn St. and signed an extension to stay in Provo and his players respect that immensely so they are in it for him and playing with that chip on their shoulder. The one main concern is that BYU will be without its top two running backs, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, and RB2 Sione Moa. Martin elected to have shoulder surgery last week to increase his healing time. It is a blow but the rest of the roster is intact. Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key said the matchup is just as important to his team, which was 8-0 and ranked in the top 10 at one point before dropping three of its last four. We do not like how the team finished so motivation can only go so far. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after two or more consecutive straight up losses. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (232) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our Pinstripe Bowl Smash. The two biggest disappointments in the Power 4 square off in New York. Penn St. opened the season 3-0 then lost its next three games which led to the firing of head coach James Franklin and then losing its next three games with interim head coach Terry Smith before closing  with three straight wins to become bowl eligible. Penn St. has been surprisingly good on offense as it is No. 26 in EPA and No. 18 in Success Rate and will be facing a defense that is No. 50 in EPA. Ethan Grunkemeyer was not horrible at quarterback as his numbers were arguably better than Drew Allar so it has not been a downgrade which many thought it would be. He has posted a higher completion percentage and a higher passer rating while putting up an equal yards per completion.  Clemson will be down a ton due to injuries, transfers and opt-outs as 27 players will not see action including eight players that started in the regular season finale. Here, we play against teams on a neutral field averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 175 and 230 passing ypg, in a non-conference game between two teams from Power 4 conferences. This situation is 24-11 (68.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (227) Penn St. Nittany Lions

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our Rate Bowl Winner. Minnesota is the popular public play here based on the fact it is 6-0 in bowl games under head coach P.J. Fleck and comes in as a bowl favorite for the fifth straight season. The Gophers offense has been non-existent and they have averaged 260.5 ypg over their last four games and on the season, they have put up only 279.8 ypg against FBS opponents while scoring just 19.4 ppg. It will not be easy here against a Lobos defense that has allowed only 321.0 ypg over their last four games while giving up just 18.0 ppg over that stretch. New Mexico comes in on a six-game losing streak and should had an opportunity to play in the Mountain West Conference championship but the computer rankings that decided the tiebreakers had the Lobos in fourth position so they will be taking this game very serious under first year head coach Jason Eck. This is the first bowl game since 2016 and the first non-New Mexico Bowl since the 2004 Emerald Bowl. Here, we play against teams after gaining 250 or less total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 135-68 (66.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (221) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Christmas Enforcer. We have seen this line tip over the key touchdown number which was expected as the Lions are still alive in the NFC playoff picture so it is must win time. The likelihood of making the postseason is slim as the chances are at four percent and the spread has steadily climbed based on the must win scenario. This is a team that is completely out of sorts and it is a good matchup for the Vikings offense. The defense has fallen apart as the Lions are now No. 20 in EPA and they have allowed 27 or more points in five straight games, the first time since 2022 that this has happened. Minnesota will turn to Max Brosmer at quarterback and he was functional last week in his limited action and now comes first action at home as his three appearances this season have all been on the road. Here, we play against teams revenging a home loss against an opponent, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 33-8 (80.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (404) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS/HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS OVER for our CFB Total of the Month. We do not hit the totals market much but we are going in for this game which is a unique situation. California fired head coach Justin Wilcox despite a decent run and it has been interim head coach Nick Rolovich leading the Golden Bears and he heads back to his college roots. He was the quarterback at Hawaii back in the early 2000s and then was the head coach here from 2016-2019 and goes up against a former teammate. Timmy Chang takes his Rainbow Warriors into the Hawaii Bowl and the narrative here is that both coaches and former quarterbacks are going to want to put up points and we have gotten the right side of the line move. While there will likely be no running up the score, the former slingers will want to put up points in what could be one of the most entertaining Hawaii Bowls in recent memory. Maybe not a five overtime game like last season but points should be plenty. 10* Over (217) California Golden Bears/(218) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our Frisco Bowl Winner. This is the ultimate gut check as we sort of saw this yesterday with Washington St. but Ohio has more to prove with the scandal going on in Athens. First year head coach Brian Smith was fired for allegedly having relations with a student but this is a program that can withstand this as we saw it last season when head coach Tim Albin left before their bowl game and the Bobcats won the Cure Bowl. The big edge is having quarterback Parker Navaro who is not in the transfer portal as he is awaiting a decision on another year of eligibility. The line opened at 3.5 in a lot places and has gone up after the coaching news but that is where the value comes in. Taking nothing away from what Dan Mullin did in his first season with UNLV, the Rebels were one of the luckiest teams in the country at No. 11 while playing a schedule ranked No. 115. The Rebels do have the better Offensive EPA but they have been fortunate who they have played away from home as their five opponents they defeated finished a combined 18-41. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 2021. 10* (216) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. San Francisco was rooting hard for Seattle on Thursday night as with the Seahawks win, the 49ers now control their own destiny in the NFC West as if they win out, the division is theirs even if all three teams finish at 13-4 as their own the tiebreakers. This is a line that opened at 7 and then came all the way down to 4.5 following the Colts performance against the Seahawks Sunday night then steadily has been back up and down. The reason for the big early line move was the positive results from Philip Rivers and apparently, some are expecting a repeat but that is a lot to be asked and we do not see it. Look for a lot more of Jonathan Taylor and despite the injuries on the 49ers defense, they are still in the top half of the league in EPA/Rushing. San Francisco has won four straight games but only Carolina was a team not struggling but we can start putting the Colts in that category with four straight losses. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points going up against an opponent off two consecutive road losses. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (131) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. The Ravens snapped a two-game losing streak within the division with a must-needed win over the Bengals to get back to .500 and keep pace with the Steelers in the AFC North as they are one game back. It is a scenario where if they win this week and the Steelers upset the Lions, next week would be meaningless to both teams with the Week 18 matchup deciding the division. The Steelers are in a tough spot though and Baltimore could definitely use this one with this being their last home game of the season and heading to Green Bay which is also playoff hunting as a loss here could be detrimental. The P:atriots are off a brutal loss and came back down to earth after a nine-game winning streak and now we can see how the response will be and it is likely unfavorable. The perfect 6-0 road record is also a contrarian go against. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 off a win against a division rival. This situation is 36-12 (75 percent) since 2016. 10* (114) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Lions are on the brink as they are off a loss at Los Angeles last week as they could not hold on to a 24-14 lead as they allowed 20 unanswered points from the end of the first half through the third quarter. Detroit is now on the outside looking in as it is a game and a half out so winning the final three games is likely necessary to go along with some help and this is the final home game of the season. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 23-9 ATS off of a loss and this includes 15 straight wins with the Lions covering 14 of those games, the lone exception four weeks ago against the Giants in the overtime win where they could not get the margin. The Steelers dominated Miami on Monday night as it went up 28-3 before a couple late garbage touchdowns and is now in a tough travel spot on a short week and a loss here is not deadly with Cleveland on deck. Here, we play on favorites allowing 335 or more ypg, after allowing 450 or more ypg over their last 2 games. This situation is 34-2 (94.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (126) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This one could not be more of a public game as late in the week, the 91 percent of the money on Houston is the highest bet side and this is officially the time to sell high as we fell flat with Arizona last week in a similar spot but this one is much better based on the opponent. The Texans have won six straight games while covering four straight and this is not a good combination as teams in this spot and listed as double-digit favorites are just 2-7 ATS. Despite the run, the Texans are in the final Wild Card spot in the AFC and will need help from the Jaguars to get to the top of the AFC South. The Raiders are not good and coming off a shutout as a double-digit underdog, no one in their right mind will be backing them this week but this is the time to do so. Teams that were shut out in their previous game are 35-17 ATS since 2015 including 5-0 ATS this season after Washington last week. Here, we play on road teams after seven or more consecutive losses, after the first month of the season. This situation is 44-17 (72.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (127) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Denver did it again as it took out Green Bay by eight points to make it 11 straight wins, nine by one possession and 10 of 12 overall victories by one score. To no surprise, the Broncos are No. 1 in the Luck Ratings and have played the No. 31 ranked schedule and while a win over Green Bay was nice, this is the first time all season they are playing a likely playoff team following a win and this run is about to come to an end. A team that is 12-2 and is ranked No. 11 in Offensive EPA and No. 8 in Defensive EPA is a complete aberration. The Jaguars have been rolling as they have won five straight games following the fourth quarter debacle against the Texans and they will be unpopular here based on this number. And despite it being small, teams winning 11 or more games in a row are 14-36-2 ATS. Here, we play on road teams after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in the last game. This situation is 27-8 (77.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (123) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our AFC Game of the Month. Buffalo and New England played one of the most entertaining games of the season last week with Buffalo coming out on top after falling behind 21-0 to pull within one game of the Patriots in the AFC East. That could continue the momentum of now three straight wins or provide a perfect letdown spot and the latter is where we are going as teams coming off emotional massive comebacks tend to flatten out. Cleveland has lost three straight games and six of seven after getting blown out on the road at Chicago but it is now back home where it plays its best even though it has lost three straight all with different scenarios that led to defeat where it could have been different. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 81-52-3 ATS (61 percent) since 2020, while double-digit underdogs are 27-16-1 ATS (63 percent) over that stretch. Here, we play against road teams averaging 5.0 or more rushing ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Saturday Primetime. This is another game, similar to the Rams and Seahawks divisional game, where we have seen this line flip back and forth and the most current move was going from Chicago to -1.5 to +1.5 in the early afternoon of Thursday as DK. Green Bay is coming off a loss at Denver last week which now puts it a half-game behind Chicago in the NFC North and a loss here could cost them the division. Many are going to expect the bounce back based on the loss and how good of a team Green Bay is this time of year as it is 21-5 under head coach Matt LaFleur in the month of December. Series bettors will not like this one as the Bears are 1-12 in their last 13 meetings with the Packers. The Bears bounced back with blowout win over Cleveland to retake first place in the division and this is the start of a brutal stretch for Chicago as after this, it is San Francisco and Detroit to close the season. Turnovers have been a big part of the success and while we cannot handicap them, we do know they are contagious. Here, we play on teams after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 47-23 (67.1 percent) since 2021. 10* (104) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES for our Dukes/Ducks Enforcer. James Madison is not getting much of a chance here with a +1100 moneyline and not many are backing the big pointspread with 77 percent of the money and 82 percent of the tickets on Oregon. There is a certain formula that the Dukes will try and create and it is a simple one, play to their strengths which will shorten the game to keep it close into the final quarter. Looking at the defense first, James Madison is going to try and make the Ducks one dimensional and it has the defense to do that which follows the same script that Iowa did in its game against Oregon. The Dukes finished No. 2 in Rushing Defense which is the third time in four years they have finished in the top 5 and it is no coincidence two of those were with Curt Cignetti there and Oregon had its worst rushing game of the season this year against Indiana. Offensively, James Madison is No. 6 in Rushing Offense and tied for No. 2 in Time of Possession so it controls tempo and any success in the running game is going to shorten this game. A lot of the talk is about how head coach Bob Chesney is distracted with his new duties at UCLA but on the other side, offensive coordinator Will Stein and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi have taken head coaching jobs and are just as distracted. 10* (291) James Madison Dukes

This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Canes/Aggies Dominator. The home field edge here is going to be a big one even though it is being downplayed because of the early start. The running game will be important and the Aggies have a significant edge when looking past the top line numbers. The strength for Miami is the rushing defense as it is No. 7 in yards allowed and No. 10 in ypc but the metrics tell a different story as the Hurricanes are tied for No. 73 in EPA/Rushing. They go up against an Aggies offense that is No. 26 in EPA/Rushing. Texas A&M has rushed for over 200 yards in seven games and South Carolina was the only team to hold Texas A&M under 100 yards rushing with the reason being the Aggies had to abandon the run after falling behind 30-3 at halftime. On the other side, the Hurricanes are No. 100 in EPA/Rushing on offense so if there is talk being thrown around that Miami has the overall rushing advantage, it does not. A lot of the success for Miami came by way of not losing the turnover battle which it did only three times and had 20 takeaways. Texas A&M turned the ball over only eight times in its first nine games but coughed it up eight times in its final three games and we will call the latter an aberration so taking care of the ball will be the big edge. 10* (298) Texas A&M Aggies

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFP Tide/Sooners Enforcer. Obviously the big story in this one is whether or not Alabama actually belongs here with its three losses and the season culminating with a bad loss against Georgia in the SEC Championship. It is time to prove they belong and what better way to do it playing with double revenge, losing to the Sooners 23-21 this season and having their eight-game winning streak snapped no thanks to a -3 turnover margin and falling 24-3 last season in the second to last game of the season that essentially knocked them out of the CFP. The defenses will be the focal point and while Oklahoma is No. 2 in EPA, Alabama is not far behind at No. 17 so the quarterbacks will likely determine this outcome and Alabama has the big edge. Ty Simpson completed a season-low 48.7 percent of his passes in his last game against No. 3 Georgia but he dominated the Sooners with 326 yards passing in the first meeting. On the other side, John Mateer has been up-and-down with 12 passing touchdowns and 10 picks. He suffered an injury on his throwing hand that required surgery and now he is in for a test against the SEC’s top pass defense and he struggled in the first meeting with only 138 passing yards. 10* (295) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the MEMPHIS TIGERS for our Gasparilla Bowl Smash. While we do not have a false favorite here, we have an overpriced favorite and Memphis has the matchup edges we are looking for. The Tigers did lose their final three games and are without their coach so those two factors are the reason the number is so big but as long as they can execute, this is right there to win outright. The rushing game will be a deciding factor and Memphis has the advantage. The Tigers are outrushing opponents by 1.3 ypc (5.1-3.8) while NC State is outrushing opponents by only 0.3 ypc (4.7-4.4) and the EPA number variances are big. Memphis is No. 2 in EPA/Rushing and going up against the No. 89 ranked EPA/Rushing defense of NC State while the Wolfpack are No. 41 in EPA Rushing on offense but the Tigers counter with the No. 40 ranked EPA/Rushing in defense. We cannot trust any part of the Wolfpack defense which is No. 126 in overall EPA and they really struggled against bowl teams and were outgained 6.8 to 6.5 yppl. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (207) Memphis Tigers

This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our Xbox Bowl Annihilator. This line has been all over the place early on as Arkansas St. was the favorite out of the gate and then it did a complete flip but has gone back to the Red Wolves laying a short number after it was announced Missouri St. head coach Ryan Beard was leaving for Coastal Carolina and will not be on the sidelines for this bowl game. This is another team that backed into a bowl game because of not enough eligible teams but the coaching aspect is a big deal. Missouri St. does possess a solid passing attack as it is No. 38 in EPA/Passing but against a weak schedule and bringing this down is the fact the Bears were sacked 44 times, the third most in the country. The aforementioned weak schedule is No. 123 in the nation and Missouri St. went just 2-4 against bowl teams while getting outgained 6.9 to 6.1 yppl. The coaching situation for Arkansas St. is much more stable with veteran Butch Jones on the sidelines and the Red Wolves do bring in some momentum. They started the season 1-4 without a FBS victory but closed 5-2 down the stretch to become bowl eligible and they won their last game to do it, a one point win over Appalachian St. They come in with the stronger defense and should blow up the Bears offensive line. 10* (302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Some might consider this is a false favorite but Seattle is getting some extra love for home field and we have actually seen a reverse line move as this opened Sunday night with the Rams a 1.5-point favorite and then flipped not much later and continued to go back and forth all the way through Wednesday morning before now finally settling in and this is with 74 percent of the money on the Rams according to DK. The Seahawks have won four straight games and were taken to the final seconds last week against Philip Rivers and the Colts and that result may be making the public a little gun-shy in backing Seattle this week. The defense at home will be the difference here as the Seahawks are No. 2 in EPA/Passing and No. 1 in EPA/Rushing. The Rams have won eight of their last nine games and are currently the No. 1 rated team in the league as well as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +320. They won the first meeting by two points and never trailed despite getting outgained by 165 yards but were +3 in turnovers. Here, we play against road teams after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in week 16 or later in the season. This situation is 77-23 (77 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +8.6 ppg. 10* (102) Seattle Seahawks

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN’ CAJUNS for our Ventures Bowl Dominator. There will be no lack of motivation for either team as Louisiana has lost three straight bowl games, all under head coach Michael Desormeaux in all three of his seasons here, so they will be out to win. Delaware meanwhile was not even supposed to be here as it is in its first season at the FBS level and typically not eligible but because of a lack of eligible teams, the Blue Hens were awarded a trip. This is also a clean game where there are limited opt outs and transfer portal decisions so what we saw is what we will get. The Louisiana momentum can play a big role here with this being an early bowl game as the Cajuns started the season 2-6 and entered November needing to win out and they did just that. They got the four wins they needed, the first three of which they were underdogs and the fourth in overtime, and come in the more healthy team as they will have quarterback Lunch Winfield back at quarterback and this is big since the Cajuns finished second in the SBC in total offense and it is up-tempo with Winfield shouldering the balanced attack. Delaware quarterback Nick Minicucci can spin it and leads an offense that was No. 29 in EPA/Passing but a lot of that was due to them playing a schedule ranked No. 135. 10* (203) Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE ST. GAMECOCKS for our Salute to Veterans Bowl. Jacksonville St. is coming off a tough loss in the C-USA Championship to Kennesaw St. in the final minute but that is not going to produce a letdown as the fact the Gamecocks are even going to a bowl game is a huge success based on preseason expectations. They have the matchup edges here as they should be able to own the line of scrimmage and the running game will be the difference. Jacksonville St. comes in as one of the best rushing teams in the country as it is No. 17 in EPA/Rushing while averaging 5.7 ypc which is No. 21 and faces a Troy defense that is decent against the run but nothing good enough to be able to spot the Gamecocks. Especially when they just allowed 318 yards to James Madison in the SBC Championship. Overall on both sides, Jacksonville St. outrushes opponents by 1.6 ypc (5.7-4.1) while the Trojans are getting outrushed by 1.9 ypc (2.8-4.7). Additionally, Troy has been outgained overall in seven of its last eight games. Here, we play against neutral field teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) since 1992 and we can bank on the moneyline situation since we are on the underdog. 10* (200) Jacksonville St. Gamecocks

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over Baltimore last week to overtake first place in the AFC North and with the Ravens win on Sunday, there is an even bigger sense of urgency with a game at Detroit on deck. The Steelers have the big home field edge facing Miami and Tua Tagovailoa in brutally cold weather. They have not lost at home on Monday night since 1991 as they have won 22 consecutive Monday home games and Pittsburgh is 42-8 under Mike Tomlin in home games against teams with a losing record. The Dolphins have won four straight games to remain in the playoff hunt but it has been a soft schedule with the last three games and over this stretch, they have forced 10 turnovers. Miami is 0-11 under Mike McDaniel in away or neutral field games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a double digit road win, after the first month of the season. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (484) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Dallas is coming off a tough loss in Detroit as it outgained its fourth straight opponent but unlike the first three, it came away with a loss. The Cowboys are still very much alive in the NFC East as the Eagles are reeling with three straight losses and just a game and a half back with a very favorable schedule. This is the first of two home games to end the home slate and close with road games at the Commanders and the Giants so a team that was left for dead is in the mix. Minnesota has had a rough season with good expectations but injuries have taken their toll and they are in an awful spot here. The Vikings are coming off a very unique situation as they became the first team since 1992 to be shutout in a game and then the very next week, shutout their opponent. Now they have to hit the road which is not ideal as teams coming off a shutout win and hitting the road are 21-36-2 ATS over the last 20 seasons. Here, we play against road teams off a win by 21 points or more as a home underdog after the first month of the season. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Dallas Cowboys

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Star Attraction. Despite the win last week over the Cowboys, the Lions are still on the outside looking in at the postseason as they are a game out, trailing the Bears and 49ers by one game, both of which have likely wins on Sunday so this is a big one. Detroit is coming off a three-game homestand where it went 2-1 with the loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving being huge and they close with three of four on the road and while winning is of their importance, we are concerned about the cover and this number is going the other way which makes this playable. Head coach Dan Campbell is 17-3 ATS as an underdog of four points or more with Jared Goff at quarterback. The Rams are in a race for the division with the Seahawks and 49ers all only one game apart and they have the former on deck for Thursday. This team is now the Super Bowl favorite and a big reason why the line is moving. Here, we play on teams outscoring opponents by 4 or more ppg, after 3 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 63-23 (73.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (477) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston was down huge against Jacksonville and came back by outscoring the Jaguars 26-0 in the fourth quarter to pull off the miracle win, yes we were part of that miracle, and it has been nonstop winning since then. The Texans have won their last four games after that victory including three on the road and now it is the time to sell in the first of two sleepy spots with the Raiders on deck. The defense has been just getting better as they have allowed only 58 points over their last 17 quarters but are laying a number that has happened only once with C.J. Stroud at quarterback as he has been favored by eight or more points only once and it was last season in an outright loss against the Titans. Arizona is on the opposite side in a buy low spot after getting rolled by the Rams last Sunday to make it five straight losses and this is the time to back the Cardinals. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (455) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Cincinnati is coming off a brutal loss at Buffalo last week which basically ruined any shot of the division even though the Bengals could be in a good spot based on schedule. They are coming off a pair of road games in the return of Joe Burrow so this will be his first home game since coming back. The issue is he is not fully vested based on his presser this week and he still has to deal with the defense that is dead last in the NFL in EPA. Over the last 10 games, they have allowed 26 or more points nine times with the lone exception being giving up 14 points to this same Baltimore team on Thanksgiving but that was due to five Ravens turnovers. The Ravens are coming off a three-game homestand and that is fine as this team needed to get out and are now a game out of first place. The schedule sets up horrible with New England next week as their final home game and then two road games to close against Green Bay and Pittsburgh making this one a must. Here, we play on road teams with a losing record in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against an opponent. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (465) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. This is the contrarian angle of backing a favorite that nobody wants a part of even though it comes with the public Kansas City name. The Chiefs are all but done for a shot at the playoffs unless they win out and get some help and they will need a lot of help but they are in the ideal situation. They have failed to cover their last five games while going 4-11 in their last 15 games as favorites and have been on the complete opposite side of winning close games. Kansas City set an NFL record of 17 straight one possession wins but have lost all six this season prior to their 10-point loss to Houston last week. The Chargers are coming off an overtime win over the Eagles which puts them in a bad spot because of that but also being a short week and needing to travel. The offensive line took another hit and they are facing a legit defense. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points revenging an upset loss as a favorite and off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +13.1 ppg. 10* (468) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our Army/Navy Dominator. Navy snapped a two-game losing streak in this series with a convincing 31-13 win as it outgained Army 378-178 and it marked the third time in the last four years that the underdog has won outright. For the Midshipmen, they finished in a tie with Tulane and North Texas atop the American at 7-1 but missed out on the championship game because of tiebreakers. The season is far from done as they have this rivalry and a date with Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on January 2. It was a disappointing season for Army after coming off a 12-win season in 2024 but it lost a lot coming in so the Black Knights were not expected to have the same success and it started rough with a 1-3 start that included a season opening loss to Tarleton St. of the FCS but the Texans are the No. 5 ranked team in the FCS and Army went on to close out 5-2 with the two losses coming by eight points combined. We have another live dog this season. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 42-13 ATS (76.4 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.8 ppg. 10* (453) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Thursday Primetime. Tampa Bay has absolutely fallen apart as a home loss against New Orleans last week put the Buccaneers at 1-4 over their last five games and dropped them to 7-6 overall. The loss to the Saints was a bad one but it was in some horrible weather while the other three losses came against the Patriots, Bills and Rams which are a combined 30-9. They are tied with Carolina in the NFC South but own the early tiebreaker and still have two games left with the Panthers and can ill afford another divisional loss here. What seals the play here is that Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last five games and that is the contrarian play on. The Falcons are coming off a loss against Seattle in a game that was close for a half and then special teams and turnovers did them in. The loss eliminated Atlanta from any sort of playoff contention and both sides of the ball are regressing quickly. Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a loss by six points or less. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss as a favorite with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 61-21 ATS (74.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (452) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The status of Justin Herbert will obviously affect this play and if he is ruled out, this will be a pass but currently this is a Justin Herbert line as it went up to 3 early in the week upon surgery and then dropped back down to 2-2.5 upon his questionable status. The Chargers should see the return of running back Omarion Hampton who has been out since October 5 and along with Kimani Vidal, this is a solid running duo and the Eagles got torn up last week against the Bears and D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Chargers have outgained 10 of 12 opponents while the Eagles have been outgained by 10 of 12 opponents. The real injury news is on the other side however as the Eagles will be without right tackle Lane Johnson and defensive tackle Jalen Carter. They have been without Johnson the last two games and the running game has been non-existent as Philadelphia has rushed for 150 yards on 35 carries (4.3 ypc). The Eagles are just 8-15 ATS following a loss under head coach Nick Sirianni and this includes a 0-4 ATS mark when favored and coming off a loss as a home favorite. 10* (146) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. We will keep fading this overvalued and overhyped Denver team as it remains No. 2 in the Luck Ratings as it pulled off yet another win it easily could have lost, defeating Washington in overtime on a Commanders missed two-point conversion. The Broncos are 10-2 with eight of those wins coming by one possession including their last four wins by a total of 10 points. A nine-game winning streak is nothing to scoff at in this league as winning is hard but it can also be lucky at times and the markets have to keep adjusting the wrong way for bettors backing them. The Raiders were unable to get the offense going in the first game since offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was let go but now back home, the effort will continue to be there. Here, we play against road teams after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (138) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Baltimore is coming off a brutal loss on Thanksgiving against the Bengals 32-14 but the Ravens were outgained by just 36 yards as they committed five turnovers which was the ultimate downfall. They are now tied with the Steelers at 6-6 for first place in the AFC North with the Bengals now back in it with a healthy Joe Burrow. This is one of those rivalries where the dog was the automatic take as since 2005, the underdog is 29-12-3 ATS but not at this state of the Steelers. They are coming off a brutal game against Buffalo as the offense managed 166 yards against a bad Bills defense while their own defense allowed 249 yards rushing on 51 carries (4.9 ypc) so Derrick Henry could go off. Pittsburgh has lost five of seven and now has internal issues. Here, we play on home division favorites coming off a divisional loss and playing with 10 or more days off. This situation is 38-17 ATS (69.1 percent) since 2011. 10* (128) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the classic spot where we have a team on a huge roll facing a team off a bad loss and laying big lumber on the road and we saw what happened to the Rams last week. The Seahawks are coming off a shutout of the Vikings 26-0 which is another reason to fade and despite the majority of the money on them, the line has slightly dropped. Atlanta has lost six of seven and no one will want to back them. Seattle is in a classic fade spot for a dominant team late in the season as we go against teams in December or later off a win with a winning percentage of .700 or better and a spread cover percentage of 60 percent or better and outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 81-51-5 ATS (61.4 percent) since 2003. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (130) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. The Colts were deemed the best team in the NFL not that long ago and it does not take long for minds to change and gears to switch. Indianapolis has lost two straight games and three of its last four but those were all one possession losses and despite the offense regressing the last couple games behind a fractured Daniel Jones fibula, the Colts are still No. 2 in Offensive EPA. In a very surprising meeting stat is the fact that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 as they have lost the last 10 trips there. Since suffering that brutal loss in Houston where they were outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter, the Jaguars have won three straight games to move into a first place tie in the AFC South with the Colts and the number is now on the Colts side. Here, we play against teams after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 58-24 (70.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (131) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Buccaneers snapped a three-game losing streak with a three-point win over the Cardinals and of its seven wins, that was the fifth one possession victory as the Buccaneers remain one of the luckier teams in the league. Injuries really got to them and while they are getting healthier, they are not there yet especially at wide receiver and the Buccaneers are still being priced like they are a dominant team and they are not. Tampa Bay is No. 18 in Offensive EPA and No. 12 in Defensive EPA and in another sell high spot. New Orleans has officially been eliminated from the postseason as it has lost two straight to fall to 2-10. The offense has struggled but the defense has played at an above average level as the Saints are No. 14 in EPA. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a losing team. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (135) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the INDIANA HOOSIERS for our Big 10 Championship Winner. The top two teams in the CFP square off in a meaningless championship game as the loser of this game will not fall out of the top four in the CFP and while a conference championship is a prestigious honor, health is important. It does mean more for the Hoosiers as they have never won one let alone be in one and if not for anything else, they will want to showcase quarterback Fernando Mendoza as Heisman votes are not due until two days after this game. The same can be said for Ohio St. quarterback Julian Sayin but he has fallen into third with Diego Pavia moving ahead of him in the odds. Ohio St. is going to be the huge public play here as all the Buckeyes do is cover as since losing to Michigan last year, they have gone 14-1-1 ATS covering by over a touchdown per game on average so this is our contrarian move. It is the Buckeyes defense that gets all of the accolades and rightfully so as they are No. 4 in EPA and No. 9 in Success Rate but just No. 68 in Havoc. Meanwhile, Indiana is right there and arguably more consistent as the Hoosiers are No. 12 in EPA, No. 14 in Success Rate and No. 12 in Havoc while holding eight opponents to season lows in yardage. The offenses are extremely similar as well the EPA, Success Rate and Havok separated by 6, 1 and 4 spots with both teams sitting in the top 12 in all three categories. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +2.2 ppg. 10* (119) Indiana Hoosiers

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our SEC Championship Winner. Georgia is one of six teams seeking revenge in championship weekend and its loss against Alabama by three points was the only one of the six games that was decided by one possession. The Bulldogs have won eight straight games since suffering that loss at home and only two of those were decided by one possession with both of those being on a neutral field including one in this same stadium last week against Georgia Tech. That will deter some from backing the Bulldogs as they foresee another tight one that could go either way. Additionally, history will decide some minds but the past is the past with different rosters as Georgia has lost 10 of 11 against Alabama since 2007 and is 0-4 against the Crimson Tide at Mercedes-Benz Stadium but seven of the 10 Alabama wins have been by only one possession. Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for just 130 yards in the loss to Alabama but he has improved immensely since then with the exception of the Charlotte game where he was not needed and the Georgia Tech game where the Bulldogs mainly ran the ball. He has thrown for 2,535 yards and 20 touchdowns, while adding 403 yards and eight scores on the ground yet the Bulldogs will likely try and pound it out as Alabama is not good against the run according to the metrics. Starting center Drew Bobo has been ruled out which is a blow but the Bulldogs will get two key weapons back on offense with wide receiver Talyn Taylor, who has been out since the first meeting against Alabama, and running back Chauncey Bowens, who has been out since the Texas game. 10* (115) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our Big 12 Championship Winner. BYU and Texas Tech are in a rematch for the Big 12 Championship and we are expecting a much closer game this time around. We have to examine the first meeting one month ago and novice bettors will just look at that score and hammer the Red Raiders once again. BYU was getting 13 points at Texas Tech in the first meeting and is now getting the same amount on a neutral field so there is value right away. Sure, the Red Raiders won that first meeting 29-7 but that score does not tell the story as it was BYU that hurt themselves with a -3 turnover margin as the Cougars were outgained by only 113 yards. The defense allowed two touchdown drives and did hold the Red Raiders to five field goals, three of which were because of short fields where the drive totaled two yards. Texas Tech is known for its potent offense by the public but that is a misconception as it is No. 79 in EPA, No. 78 in Success Rate and No. 66 in Havok. It is the defense that has carried this team and BYU had to toss away its gameplan in that first meeting after falling behind early as the Cougars are No. 27 in EPA, No. 20 in Success Rate and No. 34 in Havok. On both sides, it is strength on strength so a clean game means a close game as BYU did not turn the ball over in seven of their games. With this game in Texas, many will think it will be a Texas Tech crowd by a significant amount but that will not be the case as the Cougar faithful travel well. BYU is 6-0 ATS in its last six away or neutral field games coming off a home win and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (111) BYU Cougars

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our MWC Championship Winner. It was a four-way tie for first place in the MWC and since not all four teams played one another, computers took over the tiebreaker procedure as it was broken by a composite average of metrics: Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI and SportSource rankings. UNLV and Boise St. had the best averages and the Broncos got the home field based on its head-to-head win. We used Boise St. in that first meeting as the Broncos won that game 56-31 at home and in a span of only seven weeks, the line goes from -13 in that first game to -4.5 for the MWC Championship. The Broncos finished with the worst record of the four top teams but were able to snag the home field and the good news is that quarterback Maddux Madsen will be back after missing three games but it will be the running game to be the difference as Boise St. ran for 294 yards and the Rebels come in No. 133 in Defensive Rushing EPA. Taking nothing away from what Dan Mullin did in his first season with UNLV, the Rebels were one of the luckiest teams in the country at No. 11 while playing a schedule ranked No. 115. The Rebels do have the better Offensive EPA but they have been fortunate who they have played on the road as their five opponents they defeated finished a combined 18-41. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl and after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games going up against teams allowing 6.2 or more yppl. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +30.6 ppg. 10* (110) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our C-USA Championship Winner. This game has seen a line flip as Jacksonville St. opened up as the slight favorite but Kennesaw St. was bet heavy out of the gate as the Owls were underdogs for less than 10 hours. The Gamecocks secured the home field for the C-USA Championship based on the head-to-head tiebreaker as they took the first meeting 35-26 three weeks ago and the sharp early money went the other way despite that. The reason being is that the first meeting was a skewed final score as it was Kennesaw St. that outgained Jacksonville St. by 128 yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0 and those four turnovers led to 14 points. The 579-yard output was a season high for Kennesaw St. and there is no reason for it to slow down and get the needed points as after averaging 19.4 ppg through their first five games, the Owls have averaged 36.0 ppg over their last seven games. Also, those four turnovers were easily the most in any game and the Owls had only nine other giveaways in their other 11 games combined. The four losses by Jacksonville St. came against teams that finished no better than 7-5 so the Gamecocks were not beaten by elite competition while the Owls other two losses were on the road at Indiana in a not surprising blowout and at Wake Forest by only one point. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 24 points or more in the first half of the last game going up against an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1992 with a scoring differential of +4.0 ppg. 10* (103) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Winner. The Lions are coming off a loss against Green Bay and instead of getting their typical extra rest, they are playing a second straight Thursday but Dallas is in the same boat so there is no disadvantage. It is getting to be crunch time as Detroit is now 7-5 and trails the 49ers by a game and a half for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. They are a half-game ahead of Dallas and could essentially eliminate the Cowboys with a win and this game at home is a must with three of the last four games on the road. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 22-9 ATS off of a loss and this includes 14 straight wins with the Lions covering 13 of those games, the lone exception two weeks ago against the Giants in the overtime win where they could not get the margin. The defense has been the issue the last couple games, most recently with the Lions allowing 31 points on Thanksgiving and since taking over as head coach, Campbell is 15-4 ATS after allowing 30 points or more. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021 with a scoring differential of +5.7 ppg. 10* (102) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The Giants have dropped six straight games but have covered their last three games despite blowing fourth quarter leads in all three of those which ultimately led to the firing of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. If the NFL only played football games until the final two-minute warning, they would be 6-6 so this team is better than the record shows. The Giants are the first team in the history of the NFL to score 20 or more points and lose in six consecutive games. They also tied an NFL record for losing five games after leading by ten or more points. Jameis Winston provided a spark on offense and they now turn back to Jaxson Dart as a slight upgrade. The Patriots are now tied for the top spot in the AFC following the Denver overtime victory last night and remain a fraud top seed. They have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Giants have played the hardest and they are No. 3 in the Luck Ratings with the Giants sitting at No. 32. After the Denver win/non-cover, teams on an eight-game or more winning streak are 39-63-2 ATS (38.2 percent) since 2010, including 11-23-1 ATS (32.4 percent) since 2020. 10* (483) New York Giants

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime. Washington fell from going to the NFC Championship game to having the third worst record in the NFC. The Commanders did sneak up on teams last season and that was not the case early on although they did get off to a 3-2 start but they lost Jayden Daniels to an elbow injury and they have now dropped six straight games and important for us in this spot, dropped all six of those against the number. After four straight losses, we took them against Detroit and that was a bad move and we did not play them in Berlin `simply because we stay away from those international games. This is now the spot. Denver continues to roll along as it has won eight straight games but it has only covered half of those. Six of the eight wins have been by 16 points combined so no surprise they are No. 2 in the Luck Ratings. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after six or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (482) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Seahawks took care of Tennessee last week and they have been one of the best teams in the NFL at 8-3 with the three losses coming by a combined nine points and now back home, they are laying a stupid number. It has to do mostly with the Minnesota quarterback situation but the Seahawks are still a very public betting team right now because of their 8-3 ATS record and people will bling bet this team. Sam Darnold has been having a solid season but the Vikings have the edge in this matchup seeing that the defense saw every snap he took in practice last season. It has been a big disappointment for the Vikings as injuries and just lack of personnel has hurt. JJ McCarthy is out and the Vikings turn to rookie Max Brosmer and to be honest, it is not much of a drop off. Here, we play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-39 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (475) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The good news for Tampa Bay is that Baker Mayfield got the clearance to go but the bad news he is not healthy and is one hit away from leaving. With the dominating Chicago performance on Friday, Tampa Bay remains the only team of the current NFC playoff teams that has a negative scoring differential and even the two top teams on the outside looking in, Detroit and Dallas, are in the positive. The Buccaneers have been outgained in seven straight games and have now dropped three straight and four of five games. Arizona has been a thorn in our side so what better way to pull it out is to play the Cardinals again. They are coming off a brutal overtime loss against Jacksonville and that marked their sixth loss of the season by four points or less and by an average of 2.6 ppg. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) since 2016. 10* (463) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFC Game of the Month. Recency bias is a springboard in the NFL as the public sees what has happened in the recent past and the markets have to react and that is exactly what is happening here. The Rams are now huge favorites to win the Super Bowl as they are clearly playing the best football of any team right now and makes them the betting favorite every week. It has paid off for the public as during their current six-game winning streak, the Rams have covered five of those games. And now they head out on the road as a double-digit favorite. Carolina looked lost on Monday night, namely quarterback Bryce Young who had a career game just the previous week. The Panthers are back home where they have been more competitive following a two-game road trip and are by far the value side. We all know Any Given Sunday is the NFL mantra. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 or more points after playing a game at home going up against an opponent after a two-game road trip. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL False Favorite Smash. The Jets have lost two straight games and those were against the Patriots, one of the top teams in the league, and the Ravens, one of the better teams in the league despite their record. Both of those were on the road and while both were double-digit losses, they were actually more competitive than those scores indicate. The problem, which has been the case all season, is that they lost the turnover battle and it is pretty east for that to happen when the defense has only one takeaway all season which was a fumble in London so they are 0 for America and that changes here. The Falcons snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over New Orleans by 14 points despite winning the yardage battle by only nine yards. This team is a fraud and should not be favored over any team on the road. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 2016. 10* (472) New York Jets

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Cleveland is back home where it plays really well and the Browns have one of the biggest home/road dichotomies in the league. They are coming off a rare road win, actually it was their first of the season, to snap a three-game losing streak. they are 2-2 at home with one of the wins over Green Bay and the two losses were against the Bengals when Joe Burrow was healthy in Week One and Baltimore by a touchdown where the defense played good enough to win but one bad play in the fourth quarter did them in. The weather will benefit the Browns as it will be a cold and wintery mix with high winds. San Francisco has won two straight games to move to 8-4 as it defeated Carolina on Monday night and prior to that, Arizona on the road by 19 points despite getting outgained by over 200 yards aided by turnovers and 17 Arizona penalties. Here, we play on teams after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 10 or more points. This situation is 24-9 (72.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (474) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Contrarian Crusher Winner. It has been a lost season for LSU as a 49-25 loss to Texas A&M cost head coach Brian Kelly his job but the Tigers are still 7-4 following a pair of uninspiring wins against Arkansas and Western Kentucky and those lethargic efforts actually help us with the number. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is out but Michael Van Buren, Jr. has looked good in relief and while this Sooners defense is a different beast, the value is still on our side. While the offense has struggled all season, the defense remains legit as they are No. 22 in EPA and No. 28 in Success Rate. The Oklahoma defense has carried this team as it is No. in EPA, Success Rate and Havok but like the Tigers, the offense has struggled as quarterback John Mateer is still not healthy. This is another game with a very low total which makes the double-digit underdog much more appealing. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 86-43 ATS (66.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (383) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Rivalry Rout Winner. Vanderbilt and Tennessee meet for the 119th time with a lot on the line for both sides but more so for the Commodores. Vanderbilt is No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings and needs to win and get some help and it did not help that Utah won on Friday. It has been a magical season for the Commodores as they are 9-2 and have a chance to get to 10 wins for the first time in program history. They possess one of the best offenses in the nation as they are No. 2 in EPA and No. 3 in success Rate and will be facing the worst Tennessee defense in the last five years as the Volunteers come in No. 118 in EPA and No. 127 in Success Rate. Tennessee would like nothing more than to play spoiler against its hated rival and extend its six-game winning streak in this series. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg and after allowing 2.0 or less rushing ypc last game going up against teams allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (347) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our Signature Enforcer Winner. It has been another disappointing season for UTSA as after finishing 4-4 in the American last year, the Roadrunners came in as contenders this year but are 4-3 as the road woes did them in again. All three of those losses were on the highway, 32 and 38 point losses at South Florida and North Texas respectively and an awful six-point loss at Temple. UTSA also opened its home schedule this season with a loss against Texas St. which snapped a 10-game home winning streak but they have won four straight since that defeat. Playing Army as an underdog is always enticing but the Black Knights are just 1-3 when catching points while covering only two of those. Army is 5-5 so it needs to win here or against Navy in two weeks to become bowl eligible and we actually like that future spot better than this one. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (386) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog Winner. A trip to the Sun Belt Conference championship game is on the line as Troy and Southern Mississippi will square off to face James Madison. Troy had a bad two-game stretch to open November as it lost to Arkansas St. and Old Dominion by a combined score of 56-10 but got right against Georgia St. in a 31-19 win last week to move to 5-2 in the conference. The Trojans defense has carried the load as they are No. 36 in EPA and have only had two bad performances. Southern Mississippi is stuck in that skid that Troy was able to get out of as it is currently on a two-game slide with losses against Texas St. and South Alabama. The defense has been below average all season but hit a big time low the last two games, allowing 83 points and that is good news for the Troy offense. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more. This situation is 66-29 ATS (69.5 percent) since 1992. (69.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (399) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the KENNESAW ST. OWLS for our C-USA Game of the Year Winner. At the start of the season, it would have been no surprise that this could be a game for a chance to make it to the Conference USA Championship but just reversed. A win Saturday when the Owls travel to Liberty will put Kennesaw St. into the C-USA title game against either Western Kentucky or Jacksonville St. After two wins last season by a combined four points, the Owls are 8-3 including 6-1 in the conference and they come in off a win over Missouri St. which came after that once conference loss at Jacksonville St. Liberty has had the most disappointing season in the conference as it was the overwhelming favorite but it has been a disaster as the Flames opened 3-1 but have lost their last three games and will not even make a bowl game as they went 0-3 in FBS nonconference games. Here, we play on road teams averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 ppl and after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 26-3 ATS (89.7 percent) since 2016. 10* (435) Kennesaw St. Owls

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Supreme Annihilator Winner. The bad news for Tulsa is that it will miss a bowl game for the fourth straight season but it was a step in the right direction for the program under first year head coach Tre Lamb. The Golden Hurricane won seven games the previous two seasons under Kevin Wilson and they have a chance to win three straight games for the first time since the end of that 2021 season when it went bowling. The offense has picked it up of late as they have averaged 26.6 ppg over their last five games while averaging 28 ppg at home. UAB picked up a win over Memphis in the first game after head coach Trent Dilfer was fired but the Blazers are back to the same old Blazers as they have lost their last four games by an average of 21.3 ppg. The defense will not be able to get the job done here. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, in conference games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 2021. 10* (390) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator Winner. It has been a good run for East Carolina but it has not been good enough as the top half of the American was too tough to overcome. The Pirates had won four straight games after opening with a tough seven-point loss at Tulane but lost last week at UTSA by 24 points which put an end to any shot at the AAC Championship game. This is obviously the last regular season game with a lot to play for as the Pirates are 7-4 and have a shot to win their most games since 2013 when they managed 10 victories and surpass the eight wins they have gotten twice since then. Florida Atlantic has lost two straight including a tough three-point loss against Connecticut last week which knocked the Owls out of bowl consideration. Last home game yes, but not much motivation. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 190 and 230, in conference games. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2021. 10* (345) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction Winner. The Big Game is big for both sides as Ohio St. needs to snap its current three-game losing streak against Michigan while the Wolverines not only want to keep the streak going but to keep their CFP hopes alive as they are currently ranked No. 15 so an upset here and in the Big Ten Championship gets them in. But we are working with a lot of points at home for a team that is full of confidence knowing what it can do to the Buckeyes. Michigan is 5-0 at home which includes a big win over Washington and the low total favors the underdog, especially one getting double digits. The Buckeyes have been atop the CFP since the jump and for good reason as they have yet to lose but have played a soft schedule. Yes they should win but the same has been said three of the last four years when they were favored. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 4.8 or more ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (364) Michigan Wolverines

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Black Friday Rivalry Smash. Arizona St. still has slim hope for a repeat Big 12 Championship appearance as it needs a win against Arizona and a BYU loss to UCF. In that case, the Sun Devils would own the tiebreaker against BYU (and Utah, in a three-team tie) due to their record against common conference opponents. The Sun Devils have won three straight games, all of those with Jeff Sims at quarterback after taking over for Sam Leavitt who is out for the season. Arizona is playing excellent as well as it has won four straight games after starting 1-3 in the Big 12 Conference but has no shot at the championship game so this is just about pride in the Duel in the Desert rivalry and especially from last season. Arizona will be out for revenge after a 49-7 loss against the Sun Devils in Tucson last season but we want no part of road revenge in a scenario of two teams with identical overall 8-3 records. Here, we play on home teams after three or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 89-45 ATS (66.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (326) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Black Friday Ultimate Underdog Georgia Tech got screwed out of a true home game in this series after these teams have alternated home fields in 118 meetings making this the first neutral site game in the history of the series. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a bad loss against Pittsburgh as they lost the turnover battle 2-0 and they eliminated them from title contention based on tiebreakers. The offense got handcuffed last week but they are still in the top ten in yppl and can give this Georgia defense problems. The Bulldogs are on their way to another CFP appearance as they have now won seven straight games to close out with a 7-1 record in the SEC. Georgia can still get to the SEC Championship with a win here but it will need Alabama to lose as it owns the tiebreaker over Mississippi should the Rebels defeat Mississippi St. in the Egg Bowl. They are overpriced as they have dropped three straight ATS in this series. Here, we play against neutral field favorites of 10.5 to 21 points averaging between 28 and 34 ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (330) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our CFB Black Friday Enforcer Winner. The Mountain West Conference is very much still up for grabs and both of these teams are right in the mix with two other teams also in contention. San Diego St. was picked near the bottom of the conference but has gone 6-1 and controls its destiny to go to the championship game. Behind a stout defense, the Aztecs are No. 3 in Adjusted EPA and they have allowed single digits in points in four of their last five games and seven times this season but only two against winning teams, California which just fired their coach and Boise St., who was without its starting quarterback. New Mexico is 5-2 in the conference as it has won five straight games following a 0-2 start against Boise St. and San Jose St. with its only other loss coming at Michigan by 17 points. The scenario for the Lobos is simple as they need a win and need a loss by Boise St. which plays a half hour later. Here, we play against road teams after two or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 81-40 ATS (66.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (332) New Mexico Lobos

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Black Friday Enforcer. The Eagles are coming off a devastating loss against the Cowboys in Week 12 as they blew a 21-0 lead only to lose 24-21 to fall to 8-3. They still have a firm grip on the NFC East with a 2.5-game lead, it is the overall NFC where that loss hurts as Philadelphia is now a game behind the Rams for the top spot in the conference. Additionally, the Eagles are now tied with the Bears for No. 2 so a win here essentially gives them a two-game lead over Chicago when adding in the head-to-head victory. The Eagles have won and covered 10 straight games following a divisional game. The Bears continue to win as they defeated the Steelers last week by a field goal, their sixth win by five points or fewer with those six wins coming by an average of 2.7 ppg. This is the reason Chicago sits atop the Luck Ratings and we saw something similar with the Vikings a couple years ago. The schedule has a lot to do with why these teams have identical records as the Eagles have played the No. 3 ranked schedule while the Bears have played the No. 30 ranked slate in the league. Here, we play on teams off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 2021. 10* (314) Philadelphia Eagles

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thanksgiving Primetime Winner. This game opened at 10.5 and has dropped considerably with it being down to a touchdown in most places with the news that Joe Burrow is back at practice and expected to make his return. There is still value in the number with the drop and with this being the standalone primetime game, the public will be backing the home team Ravens. Cincinnati has lost four straight games and three of those could have been won and while those were at home, catching this number in a divisional game is a take especially with the franchise coming back at quarterback along with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who returns after serving a one game suspension. Baltimore has won five straight games including the last four since Lamar Jackson returned with all four coming against teams that will be not making the playoffs and all four against teams ranked in the bottom third in Offensive EPA. So while the offense has looked good with Jackson back, the defense has caught breaks but it is still No. 19 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a losing team. This situation is 30-7 (81.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (309) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Navy is still alive for a spot in the AAC Championship game but despite tied with Tulane and North Texas at 6-1, the Midshipmen need to win here and have either the Green Wave or Mean Green to lose. Navy does have the game against Army remaining but it is not counted as a conference game. While they are 8-2, they are only 3-7 against the number and snapped a six-game ATS skid in its last game against South Florida as it has failed to cover five games as big favorites of double digits. Over the last three seasons, Navy is 4-0 ATS following an upset win as an underdog including 3-0 ATS on the road. Memphis was very much in the mix but a loss against UAB put them behind the eight ball and then a loss at home against Tulane solidified the Tigers fate. They were clearly down after that loss as they failed to play a full game against East Carolina the following week. With nothing to play for at this point and everything on the line on the other side, we will sell high on Memphis as they are overvalued based on the Navy ATS record and the Tigers record which is 8-3 ATS. 10* (311) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thanksgiving Enforcer. Kansas City and Dallas both saved their seasons last week although the Cowboys are still in pretty bad shape. The Chiefs picked up a huge win in overtime as they outscored the Colts 11-0 in the fourth quarter and took the game on a 27-yard field goal. Kansas City is still on the outside as it is one game out, trailing the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills while being tied with Texans and Steelers at 6-5. The upcoming schedule is in their favor with the three toughest games all at home and the lone remaining road games after this being at Tennessee and Las Vegas but it all starts here. The Cowboys rallied from a 21-0 deficit to defeat the Eagles 24-21 on a field goal as time expired. They outgained Philadelphia by 134 total yards after winning the yardage battle by 145 yards the previous week but that was against the Raiders. Dallas is two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the NFL and still would have to pass two teams in front of them. Their issue has been turnovers as they are -8 in turnover margin in their losses and have given it away eight times in their last four games. Here, we play against teams off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 29-7 (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (307) Kansas City Chiefs

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Thanksgiving Matinee. Detroit was coming off a loss at Philadelphia in Week 11 so the home game last week against the Giants should have been the get right game but it in fact was not as the Lions barely escaped with a win in overtime following a 59-yard field goal that forced that overtime. Now this is the get right spot as this game is huge for both sides and getting Detroit at home is a big edge. Detroit is sitting on the outside of the NFC Playoffs looking in but a win here leaps them over Green Bay and likely puts them into a tie with the Bears for first place in the NFC North as Chicago is at the Eagles and that likely is a loss. The Packers have won two straight games to move to 7-3-1 which puts them a half-game behind the Bears but it has been an unimpressive run since their 2-0 starts as they have played the No. 27 ranked schedule. This is a revenge game for Detroit after a 27-13 loss opening week and we just do not see this dynamic offense getting shutdown at home where they are averaging 33.6 ppg. Here, we play against road teams averaging between 185 and 230 passing ypg and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 185 and 230 passing ypg. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) since 2021. 10* (306) Detroit Lions

This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Monday Primetime. The 49ers are coming off a win over Arizona to improve to 7-4 which has them in third place in the NFC West, two games behind the first place Rams. As of right now, San Francisco would have the final Wild Card spot in the NFC as it owns the tiebreaker against Detroit. The offense, namely Christian McCaffrey, has carried the 49ers as the banged up defense remains the issue as San Francisco is No. 25 in Defensive EPA. Going back, San Francisco has had trouble stringing positive games together as it is 1-9 ATS after a spread win, 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a double-digit road win, 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 30 points or more and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up win. Carolina has won five of its last seven games including an overtime win at Atlanta last week and the Panthers are right in the playoff mix. They are a game behind San Francisco and Detroit with this being the first of two straight games against the NFC West with the Rams on deck. 10* (265) Carolina Panthers

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our AFC Game of the Month. We played on the Browns last week and they brought it in at home against the Ravens, doing their best to lose it but we are now fading as Cleveland hits the road in an awful spot. They have been winless on the road and have not even covered a number on the highway and going back, the Browns are 5-17 ATS on the road in their last 22 games away from home, the least profitable team over the last three seasons. And they will be breaking in a new starter with Shedeur Sanders making his first career start and the last 17 quarterbacks making their maiden start in Clevland have gone 0-17. The Raiders have lost four straight games and come in with an identical 2-8 record and while they are 1-4 at home, they have been more competitive with a pair of losses by a single point. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home loss, with a losing record on the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2021. 10* (258) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Patriots just keep getting it done as they have now won eight straight games and are currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC. They have been unbeatable on the road and the most profitable team at a perfect 5-0 ATS and are in the prime sell high spot. Teams that have won eight or more straight games are just 39-61-2 ATS including 14-34 ATS on the road. Two road games back, were -6.5 at Tennessee and are now favored more and have eclipsed that key one possession number. The Bengals has been ravaged with injuries and will be shorthanded again with wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase serving a one game suspension. The quarterback situation was a concern coming in but Joe Flacco has been cleared and there could be a Joe burrow sighting if needed as he practiced Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. While New England is the sell high team, Cincinnati is the buy low team at the great number. 10* (248) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Signature Enforcer Winner. North Texas is very much alive for the CFP as it sits 9-1 with two winnable games prior to the AAC Championship and it now about style points but the line is taking all of this into consideration. The Mean Green have just the one loss but it is a bad one against South Florida by 27 points and now they are laying a big number on the road where time of possession comes into play. Rice went through a three-games losing streak but has won two of its last three games to get back to .500 and still in line for a bowl game in the first season with head coach Scott Abell. He brought in an option offense that is currently No. 19 in the country in rushing offense but it is the defense that has the Owls in contention as they are No. 11 in Success Rate. Rice is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against teams averaging 8.0 or more ypa while going 5-2 outright in its last seven games as a home underdog. 10* (194) Rice Owls

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Marquee Star Attraction Winner. Give credit to Penn St. as it had lost six straight games including the gut-wrenching defeat against Indiana yet bounced back last week with a 28-10 win over Michigan St. to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Nittany Lions have to win out and with the last game at Rutgers, it is possible but they are totally overvalued here. They do have the final home game edge but anything over a touchdown is too much. Nebraska became bowl eligible with a win over Northwestern last month and overcame the injury to quarterback Dylan Raiola with a win over UCLA prior to a bye week. TJ Lateef had an awesome game and now has had two weeks to practice with the no ones. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after having lost three out of their last four games. This situation is 83-42 ATS (66.4 percent) since 2016. 10* (149) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog Winner. Temple is coming off a tough loss at Army by a point and the Owls remain one win away from making a bowl game which would be its first since 2019 after winning 13 games combined the last five seasons. This is the final home game for Temple with a game at 9-1 North Texas to close the season. The Green Wave remain in the hunt for a playoff berth as they entered Week 13 Week 13 ranked No. 24, the highest Group of Five team with two games remaining and hosting Charlotte in their season finale. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the seasons averaging between 390 and 440 ypg and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in four consecutive games going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (124) Temple Owls