Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 119 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Given the play of both the offenses and defenses in Week 1, I believe that this number is generously high. LA ran the ball 40 times in its opener and scored 20 points in total. The heavy dose of running plays helped to chew up the clock. On the other side of the ball, the Rams new look defense was solid. At least, in the second half. The Cowboys managed only three points and 139 total yards after the break. MacVay noted: McVay said. ''...I like the way our defense settled in the game.'' It should be noted that the Rams stopped the Cowboys twice on fourth down while also stopping the Cowboys nine of 12 times on third down. As for the Eagles, Wentz got sacked eight times last week, while also getting picked off twice. They're going to be anxious to avoid a repeat performance, particularly with Aaron Donald coming to town. The Eagle offense managed only 90 total yards in the second half. While Doug Pederson may claim otherwise, I expect he'll be a little less aggresive (more run plays) to try and protect his QB. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were arguably stingier than the score indicates. They held Washington to just 239 total yards of offense. The bottom line is that I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tenn/Denver UNDER the total. Both these teams were in the top half of the league, in terms of a rushing attempts, last season. A relatively heavy dose of the run shoud keep the clock moving in this one. Both teams also ranked in the top half of the leauge, in terms of points allowed and in terms of rushing yards allowed, per attempt. Additionally, Denver was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season. The Broncos ranked 28th in terms of points scored (17.6) and also 28th in terms of total yards (298.6) per game. These teams met last October and the final score was 16-0. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 1490 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Houston UNDER the total. I successfully played on the 'over' (for the first half) when these teams met in the playoffs. So, I'm well aware that they can score points in a hurry. That said, for the opening game of the season, with no preseason, I feel that the the offenses won't be clicking the way that they were in January; the timing is likely to be just a little off. Houston has some new faces on offense. Keep in mind that the Chiefs slowed things down in their SB win and held SF to 20 total points, that game staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Navy UNDER the total. BYU is nearly always stingy and with plenty of experience on that side of the ball, that should again be the case. The Cougars return seven starters on that side of the ball and several others who got plenty of playing time. Not always known for its defense, Navy is also expecting to be relatively stout this season. Coach Niumatalolo noted: ''We're counting on our defense to be our strength. As we get our quarterback group going, we're going to rely on our defense a lot. I have total faith in the them.'' The offense, a work in progress, has been hindered by a late start, shorter practices and safety protocols, due to the pandemic. While the Cougars return QB Wilson, he loses his receiving weapons. His tight-end (last year's leading receiver) got hurt and his three top receivers from last year are all gone. Look for points to prove harder to come by than many will be expecting. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Southern Miss UNDER the total. The Jags don't win many road games. In fact, they're 0-12 under Steve Campbell, when playing on the road. So, I'm reluctant to back them. Yet, I do expect them to fight hard and I'm not confident laying the big number with the Eagles, either. Instead, I believe that the value lies with the total. The Golden Eagles still have their star QB (Abraham) but he lost some weapons. Indeed, three of their top four offensive playmakers have moved on. Perhaps more importantly, they're learning new systems with a new offensive (and defensive) coordinator. That's significant given that they got less practice time than normal. They'll very likely win but I don't expect them to put up a huge number in the process. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than expected. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 332 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/SF UNDER the total. Both conference championship games finished above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a generously high O/U line for the big game. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The 49ers are here, in large part, to their defense. While they eventually gave up some points, they held the Packers scoreless through the first half, making Rodgers look bad. On the season, they allow just 18.9 ppg and 279 ypg. Though more known for their offense, the Chiefs defense is better than people realize. They allow a respectable 20.2 ppg and 357 ypg. Going into the game against the Titans, people said they were vulnerable against the run and that they would have trouble against Henry. After all, Henry had been running wild. They silence those critics though, effectively taking him out of the game, or at least limiting him. The 49ers only played two games with a total of 50 or greater all season and both of those finished below the number. They've also seen the UNDER go 3-1 against AFC teams and 2-0 the past two times that they played with two week's rest in between games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high total. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER. The 49ers have been a dominant defensive team all season. Last week, they held the Vikings to 10 points for the entire game. When these teams met earlier, the Packers didn't score a single point in the first half. For the season, SF is allowing only 8.4 points, here at home, in the first half. Green Bay has also been playing very well defensively. Last week, the Pack held Seattle to only three first half points. Overall, SF allows 18.8 ppg while GB allows 19.8. The UNDER is 3-1 when the Packers were underdogs and each of their past two road games fell below the total. I expect both teams to look to establish the run early, helping to chew up the clock and for that to lead to a low-scoring affair. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson v. LSU UNDER 70.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 193 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clemson/LSU UNDER the total. Obviously, I have a lot of respect for both QBs and both offenses. That said, this is an extremely high O/U number and I also highly respect both defenses. Clemson held a potent Ohio State offense to 23 points to get here. That was a Buckeye team which came into that game averaging 48.7 ppg and 531.6 yards per game. Meanwhile, Clemson was held to 26 points. Prior to that game, Clemson had allowed 17 or fewer points in eight straight games. Over that 8-game span, they allowed a total of only 78, an average of less than 10 per game. LSU did allow some points (28) to Oklahoma but keep in mind that in its previous two games, it held Georgia and A&M to only 10 and 7. Did you know that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that Clemson played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games? (Last year's final game did go OVER with 60 points but the Tigers weren't playing with as much rest.) During that span, the UNDER is also 2-0 when the (Clemson) Tigers played a game with O/U line of 63 or more and 4-0 when they were off four or more consec. ATS wins. Meanwhile, the UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 over the years when LSU was off three straight ATS victories, when favored by seven or more points. There will be plenty of scoring. Just not enough to reach this very big O/U number. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens OVER 47 | Top | 28-12 | Loss | -116 | 154 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tennessee/Baltimore OVER the total. The Titans were involved in a defensive battle against the Patriots in the Wildcard round. However, that was facing the stingiest team in the league, in terms of points against. While the Ravens were also stout defensively, they're much better offensively than the Pats. In fact, the Ravens had the best offense in the entire league this year. They averaged 33.2 ppg. No other team averaged even 30. (The Pats average 25.5) So, we've got a Ravens' defense that allows more points than the Pats and a Ravens offense that scores nearly eight points a game more. Yet, there's only about four points difference in the O/U line. I feel thats providing us excellent value with the OVER. The Ravens have been practically unstoppable. Its very likely, in my opinion, that they're going to put up a big number. That will force the Titans to have to score more than they needed to against New England. (Each of the Ravens' last five opponents has hit double-digits.) Off b2b wins, which followed a loss to NO, note that the Titans have seen the OVER go a perfect 5-0 after having won two of their previous three. The last time that the Ravens played a meaningful game on this field, they beat the Jets 42-21. Overall, Baltimore games averaged more than 50 points this season. Look for Saturday's game to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Houston UNDER the total. The Bills averaged only 19.6 ppg this season. That ranked just 23rd in the NFL. None of the other teams scored so few points. Every other team which is playing this weekend, with the exception of Houston, ranked in the top 12 of the league, in terms of points scored. (The Texans were 14th.) So, these are the two lowest scoring teams involved in this week's games. Despite scoring so few points, the Bills are absolutely here on the strength of their defense. The 16.2 ppg which they allow ranked 2nd in the entire league, only behind the Patriots. When playing on the road, the Bills were even stingier. Outside of Buffalo, they allowed only 15.6 ppg. In terms of total yards allowed, the Bills rank 3rd in the NFL. They give up 298 ypg, which trails only the Pats and the 49ers - and not by much. The Bills know they'll have to bring it on "D" once again, as they've scored 17 or less in four straight games. These teams met here in 2018; the final score was 20-13. With the UNDER a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Bills were road underdogs of three or less, expect a similar result on Saturday afternoon. |
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 56.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -109 | 552 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Miss / Tulane OVER the total. These teams used to face each other on a yearly basis, the annual "Battle For The Bell." That series ended in 2010 with Southern Miiss winning by a 46-30 score in the final game. I expect another high-scoring affair when these old foes reunite on Jan. 4th. Tulane doesn't play much defense. Over their last five games, the Green Wave allowed 37, 34, 29, 26 and 41 points. They did score 20 or more in all five games, however, topping the 30 mark in three of them. All five games saw at least 50 points scored and they averaged 63. On the season, Tulane games averaged 60.7 ppg. While the Golden Eagles did finish the season on an 'under' streak, they also allowed at least 28 in each of their final two games and they scored 37 and 36 in their two previous games before that. Its worth mentioning that the OVER is 6-2 the past eight times that the they've been listed as neutral field underdogs. Having gone 0-2 SU/ATS their final two, its also noteworthy that the Golden Eagles have seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they'd failed to cover each of their past two games and a 2-0 OVER mark when they were off b2b SU losses. As for the Armed Forces Bowl itself, its been very high-scoring of late. In 2015, this bowl had a score of 35-34. The next season, the score was 55-36. That was followed by a 48-45 game and a 42-35 one after that. Last season's game had a score of 70-14. With both offenses having success, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati OVER 54.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Cincy OVER the total. While the Bearcats have indeed been profitable for 'under' bettors, the opposite is true of the Eagles. Even with its last two games staying below the total, Boston College has still seen the OVER go 8-4 on the season. Thats what happens when you have a porous defense though. The Eagles give up 31.7 ppg and a whopping 480.3 yards per game. They're even worse defensively when playing away from home, as they allow 33.7 ppg and 510.2 ypg. When facing some weaker defenses earlier in the season, the Bearcats put up big numbers. They scored 52 against Marshall, 38 against Houston, 46 against ECU and 48 vs. UConn. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing BC. While they have trouble stopping the other team, the Eagles can score. They average 30.9 ppg. Note that the OVER is 2-0 in BC neutral site games the past couple of years. Even though the majority of Cincy games did fall below the total, the OVER was 2-1 when they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. Look for those stats to improve as this afternoon's game proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon UNDER 52 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 220 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Oregon UNDER the total. These are two of the top defenses in the country. Wisconsin ranks 10th with 16.1 points allowed per game. Oregon ranks 8th, allowing just 15.7 ppg. Last time out, the Ducks limited Utah to only 15. In terms of total yards, the Badgers rank 8th, allowing just 293.5 ypg. The Ducks aren't too far behind; they allow 329.6 ypg. The Badgers have seen the UNDER go 10-6 the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that span, the Ducks have seen three of five stay below the total, when playing a game with an O/U line in that range. With the Ducks listed as small underdogs, its also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-4 the past dozen times that they were getting points. Look for points to prove hard to come by, the UNDER improving to 6-1 the past seven times that Wisonsin was off two or more consecutive ATS wins. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 54 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Wyoming/Georgia State OVER the total. While the Cowboys enter on an 'under' streak, they're facing a defensively-challenged Georgia State team. On the season, the Panthers allow a whopping 36.1 ppg, second worst in the Sun Belt. Indeed, this will be one of the weakest defenses which Wyoming has faced. The Cowboys will have a big day on offense. However, the Panthers can score themselves. They average 32.4 ppg and aren't going to go down quietly. Note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Panthers were of a conference road loss. This season, the OVER was 3-0 when they were off a road loss overall. Expect the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that Wyoming played with two or more week's of rest in between games. |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 56 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on UVA/Florida UNDER the total. This O/U line has climbed a bit from its opener. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Cavs come in on an 'over' streak, which has helped in terms of line value. They haven't faced a team like this one lately though. In their final three games, the Gators allowed 0, 6 and 17 points, an average of less than eight per game. Those three teams averaged a mere 211 ypg. For the season, the Gators are allowing an average of just 14.4 ppg and 299.6 ypg. The UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that Florida scored 37 or more in its previous game. Note that the UNDER is also 2-0 when the Gators played on a neutral field. After getting crushed by Clemson, the Cavs will be focused on avoiding a similar fate. Expect the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that they were off a bye. |
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12-29-19 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 153 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/Jacksonville UNDER the total. I won with the Colts' under in last week's game. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "While they're favored by nearly a touchdown, the Colts offense isn't very good. That means they'll need to win this one with their defense. Indianapolis managed only seven points last game and has scored 17 or less in three of its last four. Going back a bit further and the Colts have scored 17 or less in five of their last eight games. Last week's 30-24 Carolina/Seattle score was a bit deceiving as 21 points came quickly towards the end. The score had been 23-10 still nearing the mid-way point of the fourth ... " Indy did indeed win with its defense, limiting Carolina to six points. Once again, the Colts are favored against an offensively-challenged opponent. Once again, I feel that means that they're going to need to win it with defense. Note that the Colts score against Carolina actually could have easily been lower-scoring than it was; the Colts scored punt return TD's of 71 and 84 yards. On the season, the Jags rank 27th in scoring with 17.9 ppg. They've been even worse lately though. The Jags scored 12 points last time out. Prior to that, they scored 20, 10, 11, 20, 13 and 3. (The 13 came against these same Colts.) The Colts rank just 24th in the league in total yards. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force UNDER 69 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on AF/WSU UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line and I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, the Cougars are a high-scoring team. The Huskies held them to 13 points in the Apple Cup though and I believe that Air Force will also have some success in slowing them down. The Falcons held Wyoming to six points last time out. They've limited three of their past five opponents to 13 or fewer points and none of those five teams scored more than 22. Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of times that Air Force played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. The UNDER is also 3-0 when AF was off b2b double-digit conference wins. The Cougs were underdogs three times this season and two of those games stayed below the number. This one will too. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida UNDER 61.5 | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCF/Marshall UNDER in the Gasparilla Bowl. These teams have a history as they faced each other 11 times as members of CUSA, from 2002-2012. Seven of those 11 games finished below the total. Working with generously high number and with both defenses in fine form, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. Keep in mind that Marshall games averaged 48.9 points this season. The Herd will try and run and keep the clock moving and to keep the UCF offense on the sidelines as much as possible. It won't be easy though as the Knights are playing stingy defense right now. In fact, the Knights allowed a mere seven points in their last game, their fourth straight 'under.' Note that the UNDER is 13-7 the last 20 times they were off a home win, 9-4 when that win came by 17 or more. While Marshall allowed 27, it has still allowed an average of only 17 points its past four games. Go with the Under. |
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12-21-19 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. With both teams off high-scoring games, we're getting a generously high O/U number to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Prior to getting lit up at Dallas last week, LA has allowed just 12 and seven points, in its previous two games. The Rams have still allowed 17 or fewer points in six of their last eight. The last time that they allowed more than 40, they bounced back and allowed just seven last time out. As for the 49ers, if you had the 'under' in their game last week, you suffered a very bad beat. What happened? The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds. The final play was a bizarre one; I'll leave it at that. Anyway, the point is that the 49ers game did not play out to be high-scoring. When these teams met earlier, the score was 7-7 at halftime and finished at 20-7, after regulation. While we have to go back quite some time, we find the UNDER at a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Rams were off a loss of 21 or more, when they'd been favored. Expect those stats to improve here. |
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State OVER 41 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/SDSU OVER the total. The Aztecs were an 'under' team this season which has led to a very low O/U line for Saturday's game, currently the lowest of the bowls, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While SDSU may have played low-scoring games, the Chippewas saw their games average a healthy 58.7 points on the season. The Chippewas personally scored 45 or more in three of their last four and 38 or more in five of their last seven. (They got at least 20 in all seven.) Over the years, the OVER is 2-0 when the Aztecs have been neutral field favorites of seven or fewer points. Also, the Chippewas have seen the OVER go 2-0 over the years, when playing a game with an O/U line of 42 or less. Looking at recent New Mexico Bowl scores and we find the last four have all produced a minimum of 43 points. They had scores of 52-13, 31-28, 23-20 and 45-37. This one also proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 171 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/New Orleans UNDER the total. Both teams are off high-scoring games which has helped in giving us a generously high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While the numbers took a bit of a hit last week, both these defenses are still in the top half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game. Both offenses are going to run the ball a alot, particularly the Colts, who rank #5 in the league, entering the weekend, in terms of rushing attempts per game. They run the ball 30.4 times per game. Of course, that'll help to keep the clock moving while hopefully keeping the more potent Saints offense on the sidelines. With the Colts off three consecutive losses, its worth noting that the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that they'd lost their previous three. The UNDER is 18-7 the past 25 times (6-1 L7) that the Saints had scored 30 or more in their previous game. When they'd scored 35 or more their previous game, the UNDER is 7-2. Expect those stats to improve Monday night. |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/Carolina UNDER the total. Admittedly, the Carolina defense was pretty lousy at Atlanta last week. This unit still has pride though and I expect a visit from the Seahawks to bring out their best. The Rams cooled off Seattle last week. The Hawks managed only 12 points. Thats the second straight road game where Seattle has scored 17 or less. They've scored 27 or less in four straight on the road. The Hawks have seen the UNDER go 7-1 the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites, a 3-0 UNDER mark in that role this season. The UNDER is 2-0 the last couple of timeds that they were off a double-digit loss and 3-0 the last few times that they'd given up 25 or more in b2b games. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final score staying beneath the generously high number. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 119 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This O/U number fell when it came out and we're now working with a nice low total. While I'm aware these teams have been involved in low-scoring games of late, I believe that it'll prove to be far too low. Navy scored 56 all by itself last time out. That was the second time in four game that the Midshipmen reached that number. They've scored 35 or more in six of their past seven (averaging 39.3 on the season) and could realistically score enough by themselves to send this one OVER the number. They won't need to though; the Knights have been scoring even more points than them lately. In its last three games, Army has scored 63, 47 and 31, while averaging 575 yards of offense in those games. Last time out, the Knights allowed 52 against Hawaii. All things considered, this number is too low. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia v. LSU UNDER 55 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 101 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/LSU UNDER the total. When these teams met last year, the O/U line was 50 and they combined for 52. We're working with a little higher number here, which I feel is providing excellent value. With all due respect to Alabama, this is the best defense that LSU will have seen. Indeed, the Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the entire nation. They allow 10.4 ppg (#2 in the country) and 257.1 ypg, #4 in the country. Seven of the Bulldogs' eight SEC games stayed below the number. LSU can also be pretty stingy. Just ask the Aggies. Last week, the Tigers held Texas A&M to seven points and a measly 169 total yards. Speaking of that blowout, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 9-3 when off a double-digit conference win and they've got a 4-1 UNDER mark when off b2b double-digit conf. wins. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon, as points prove hard to come by the entire way. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 48 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Oregon/Utah UNDER the total. The days of the Pac-12 featuring wide open high-scoring games are largely gone. Remember the Ducks of a few years back? It seemed like they always getting involved in high-scoring games. Times have changed. The Ducks check in off a 24-10 win. They've held four of their last eight opponents to 10 or fewer points. On the season, they're allowing an average of 15.7 ppg. The Utes? They're even stingier. They allow a mere 11.2 ppg. Thats the third best mark in the country behind Clemson (10.1) and Georgia (10.4). The 241.6 yards allowed per game ranks #3, behind Ohio State and Clemson. They've allowed seven or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The UNDER is 8-3 when the Ducks have been underdogs the past 2+ seasons, a 2-0 UNDER mark when they've been underdogs on a neutral field. With points proving hard to come by, expect those stats to improve Friday night. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Chicago OVER the total. This is a low O/U number and I believe it'll prove to be low. While I respect both defenses, neither is unbeatable. Last game, the Bears gave up 20 to Detroit with the Lions using their third string QB. They'll face a far more dangerous offense here. The Cowboys, meanwhile, gave up 26 later in the same day. They've given up 26 or more in three of their past four. Having lost that game against the Bills, note that the OVER is 5-1 the past six times that the Cowboys were off a loss as a home favorite. During that span, the Bears, who failed to cover the closing line on Thanksgiving, have seen the OVER go 3-0 when off a SU victory in which they failed to cover. With Dallas games against fellow NFC opponents averaging 50 points this season, look for the final combined score to find its way above the relatively low number. |
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12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/SF UNDER the total. When playing on an 'under,' I look for strong defenses and/or teams which are going to run the ball a lot. We've got both for this game. These teams rank #1 and #2 in the entire NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. A heavy dose of the run will keep the clock moving. Obviously, Lamar Jackson is having a special season. He's up against a special SF defense here though. The 49ers are #1 in the NFL in yards allowed per game and second, behind only New England, in terms of points allowed per game. Also, the Ravens defense has quietly flown under the radar, Jackson stealing all the spotlight. They rank 5th in the NFL, in terms of points allowed per game. The 49ers are going to want to run the ball but the Ravens allow the third fewest rushing yards per game. The 49ers held the Packers to eight points last game while Ravens limited the Rams to six. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tennessee/Indianapolis UNDER the total. When playing on an 'under,' I look for strong defenses and/or teams which are going to run the ball a lot. The Colts rank #3 in the entire NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. That hasn't helped them much though, as they've scored 17 or fewer points in three of their past five games. Still, with a banged up offense, they don't have much choice. While the Titans are only #13 in rushing attempts per game, they featured an extra heavy dose of the run last week. With that having worked out so well for them, I expect them to really emphasize running the ball. Both teams rank in the top 12 in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. However, they're only #16 and #17 in terms of points scored per game. The earlier meeting was low-scoring, having produced just 36 points. The Colts have seen the UNDER go 10-3 off a road loss, 0-3 when off a road loss within the division. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. |
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11-29-19 | Washington State v. Washington UNDER 64 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Washington State UNDER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 50 and produced only 43 points. The previous year, these teams combined for 55 points. That O/U line was also 50. Here, however, we're working with an extra couple of touchdowns, as this is a significantly higher O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Huskies' last two games had scores of 19-7 and 20-14. Of course, the Cougars' last couple of games were much higher-scoring. However, the UNDER is 3-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off b2b games where they scored 42 or more points and 4-1 when they were off a game where they both scored and allowed 30 or more. With the UNDER also a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Huskies had failed to cover three of their previous four, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |