Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
Matt Campbell sure has upgraded the Iowa St. football program. He has an NFL caliber QB, and the Cyclones are no longer the doormat of the Big-12 Conference. Looking at their opener against Louisiana may have a lot of people doubting the Cyclones, but that was a total fluke. Iowa St. gained more yards, had more first downs, but ended up losing by 17. The last 10,000+ NCAAF games shows that if a team has more total yards along with more first downs, they win 84.2% of the time, and cover 62.7% of the time at home. They lose by 17 or more points just 2% of all games. The reason was Iowa St. gave up a 95 yard kickoff return, an 83 yard punt return, a 78 yard broken coverage passing TD, and for good measure a TD in the last 10 seconds. It is one of those games you just forget about, and move on. TCU has dealt with covid issues, and this will be their first game of the season. I like the upside here with Iowa St. and a pro caliber QB, vs a backup for TCU, who has not seen the field yet. Make the play on Iowa St. |
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09-26-20 | Florida International v. Liberty -6.5 | Top | 34-36 | Loss | -100 | 70 h 58 m | Show |
The Liberty Flames are now under the direction of Hugh Freeze. Hugh Freeze is 57-34 ATS in his career, and is now with his 3rd team. he has been one of the top coaches in the country in that respect. his Liberty team was expected to take a fall this season, but he brought in Auburn transfer Malik Willis to play QB. Willis ran for 168 yards and 3 TDs last week, and added 133 in the air, so he was personally responsible for over 300 yards of offense. When the QB is good, the team usually plays and looks better. The Flames out-gained W. Kentucky by just under 200 yards. Enter FIU. FIU lost their QB to the NFL, and overall are one of the least experienced teams in the country, and to make matters worse, this team has dealt with covid issues, and this will be their first game. Liberty is a surprising 2-0 and FIU has yet to step on the field breaking in a new QB, and a lot of players missing key practice time due to covid. Make the play on Liberty. |
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09-26-20 | Kentucky +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 13-29 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 45 m | Show |
The Kentucky Wildcats have been a long time doormat in the SEC, but things are changing. Kentucky has put together 4 straight winning seasons, and a 5th would be the most in over 40 years. They have won 3 or more conference games 4 straight seasons, the most in over 40 years as well. Kentucky has not beaten a team from the SEC West on the road since 2009. Kentucky has a very strong offensive line, and also the return of QB Terry Wilson, who led them to 10 wins in 2018, before tearing an ACL last year in game 2. The line is the place to watch and between offense and defense, Auburn lost 7 linemen. Kentucky will have a strong defense, and I think this game is a lot closer than it looks. Make the play on Kentucky. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -108 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
The Sunday Night Football game is between a pair of heavyweights as New England heads to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is off a huge game completing 31 of 35 passes with 4 TDs and 0 INT's. While Wilson stole all the fanfare, and rightfully so, the Seattle defense was brutally bad. The defense allowed 506 yards. They couldn't guard anyone as 3 receivers had over 100 yards, and 4 caught passes good for 20 yards or more. New England won their first game with Cam Newton under center. He played well, and showed he was healthy running for 75 yards and a pair of TDs. The New England ground game amassed over 200 yards. A team rushing for 175 or more yards in game one is 51-35-1 ATS in game 2. Seattle is known for being an elite home team. That is due to them going 39-6 SU from 2012-16. They have since been 14-10 SU or about average. The Seattle defense is really bad, and getting another near perfect performance from Wilson against a Bill Belichick defense and game plan isn't likely. There will also be no fans so what ever home field edge the Seahawks are maintaining is diminished. This game implies a +7 line on New England if fans were in the stands, and I just don't see it. Make the play on New England. |
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09-20-20 | Vikings +3 v. Colts | Top | 11-28 | Loss | -100 | 48 h 46 m | Show |
A pair of playoff hopefuls the Minnesota Vikings and the Indianapolis Colts will square off in Indianapolis. This immediately becomes a pivotal game as the loser will move to 0-2 on the season. Philip Rivers had a mostly good debut in Indianapolis last week, but once again he is haunted by turnovers. Rivers 2 INTs put him at 200 for his career, and moved his overall record to 77-84 SU, from the 5th year of his career to the present. He should once again have strong passing numbers vs a Minnesota team that saw their weak secondary exposed by Aaron Rodgers last week. I'm going to ride with a lot of very strong bounce back situations, with one being 102-41-4 ATS. Another is a week 2 specific situation that shows that a team that lost in week 1 as a favorite are 44-27-2 ATs in week 2. That goes to 30-11-2 ATS if the line is fewer than +6 and since 2010 that has been even stronger at 14-1-1 ATS. Make the play on Minnesota. |
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09-20-20 | Lions v. Packers OVER 49.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 45 h 58 m | Show |
If you are a Packers fan, it was good to see Aaron Rodgers have a big day. Many thought the Packers loading up on running backs, and not addressing the pass catchers Rodgers needs meant the Packers were going to turn to the running game. That certainly wasn't the case vs a depleted and weak Minnesota secondary, and likely we will see the same thing vs Detroit, who has a depleted secondary due to injuries.The Packers put up over 500 yards of offense, but also gave up 34 points themselves. Matthew Stafford completed 24-of-42 attempts for 297 yards, one touchdown, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.Those are strong numbers against a pretty good Bears defense. I think Stafford can put up similar numbers against Green Bay, and the fast pace offense of the Bears was too much for the Lions. There was 7 points lost in that game as D"Andre Swift dropped a wide open pass in the end-zone that would have won the game for the Lions with just a few ticks on the clock. Make the play over the total. |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 8 m | Show |
It is becoming pretty clear that covid-19 will continue to have an influence on the 2020-21 NCAAF season. Last week LA Tech saw their game vs Baylor cancelled due to the fact that they had 38 covid cases. This is a team that has just 8 returning starters as it is, and with a challenging depth chart, they are going to be far behind. Even if many of the players return, they have missed a lot of practice time. Southern Miss had a horrific opener as they lost to South Alabama as a nearly 2 TD favorite. The result was Coach Jay Hopson resigned. He will be replaced by Scott Walden. Walden immediately made a statement of what to expect. The Golden Eagles will put their foot on the gas, and not take it off for 4 quarters. His offense will attack hard, and play lightning fast. He has a history of that as he was the coach of E. Texas Baptist Univ. and his team averaged 50ppg and totaled over 550 yards per game. That has a pretty good chance against a Tech team with a depleted roster, and little in the way of experience to begin with. Southern Miss has been rock solid at home off a loss where they are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS. Like their situation here, make the play on S. Mississippi. |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Georgia Tech had a tough year last season, as they transitioned out of the triple option. They now have a year under their belt, and a whole lot of experience. They went to Florida St. as a +13 point under dog, and won outright 16-13. They trailed 10-0 at the half, but anyone watching could see who the better team was. Tech drove to the Florida St. 40 on 4 drives, 3 of which became red-zone opportunities and they came away with 0 points. The Game was all Tech despite the final score as they doubled the Seminoles yards per play of 3.8 producing 7.6 of their own. C. Florida saw 10 players opt out this season due to covid-19, and Tech has a game under its belt, while UCF has not taken the field yet. I think if this game were later in the season, the line would look right, but not under this year's circumstances. I like Georgia Tech to win this one straight up, but will not press my luck as +7.5 looks like a great bet. Make the play on Georgia Tech. |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 104 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The Denver Broncos host the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night football. There is a lot of excitement for this Tennessee team, coming off a strong playoff performance from last year. They were a fairly ordinary team coming into the playoffs and the hype is in full force this season, and I think that leaves the team overrated early in the season. Derrick Henry had an amazing season, especially in the playoffs. He carried the ball over 300 times and when you add in the playoffs he was on the doorstep of 400. Since 2011 there have been 11 players top the 300 carry mark and their next season was dramatically worse. There was just 1 of the 11 that increased their rushing yards the following year and that was Marshawn Lynch. Despite increasing his yardage he did so at a price, 4.2 yards per carry vs 5.9 the previous year. Including Lynch the average yards per carry dropped from 4.75 to 3.99. The average yards gained dropped on average by 762! Denver has a long history of winning early at home. They are 33-4 SU and 22-11-4 ATS at home in weeks 1 and 2. The simple reason is early in the season most NFL players are not in game shape yet, and playing in the altitude in Denver really takes its toll. When the line is -7 or fewer points that jumps to 19-5-4 ATS, including 10-1-3 ATS at -3 or less. (4-0-1 ATS as pick or dog). This year I think that advantage is even greater with training camps limited due to covid-19, and no exhibition games. Good spot tonight for the Broncos, make the play on Denver. |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 38 m | Show |
This one opened at -4.5 for the Saints, but th Brady lovers, and the hype of the Tampa Bay offense has cut a point off the opener. This is a tough year to field a team with so many key transitional players, as they have had less time on the field, and no practice games to get a sense of timing down. Tom Brady has seen his yards per pass attempt decline in each of the past 4 years from 8.2 to 7.9 to 7.6 to 6.6. His 24 TD passes a year ago were his fewest since 2006. He ill have a much more talented receiving core this season, but in this game, will he be able to take advantage? I believe the Saints defense could be the best in the entire NFL this season. This game will be influenced by the Saints bringing in Malcolm Jenkins. He is the top slot defender in the NFL. Brady has had Welker, and Edelman as his favorite targets pretty much his entire career. I think Jenkins will shutdown the Buc's solid slot receiver in Chris Goodwin. I also think the fact that Brady no longer throws the long ball, as his depth of target last year was 8.0 ranking 28th, and Mike Evans benefitted from gunslingers Fitzpick-6, and Winston who threw downfield a lot. Where Brady will be an immediate upgrade is in turnovers. Brady knows how to take care of the football, and Winston threw 30 INTs a year ago, and also lost 5 fumbles. The Bucs defense looked bad last year but was actually very good. They had to defend short fields on 35 turnovers, and spent too much time on the field, and will improve substantially this year. The Saints offense should be ahead of most, as they have pretty much the same team as a year ago, while Tampa may be the most impacted, as they have a lot of new faces. The Saints are one of few teams that are talented enough in the secondary to match up with Tampa Bay, and the Bucs OL is going to get Brady sacked a lot more than he is used to. This is a good opening spot for the Saints, especially with the public putting their hand on the scales. Make the play on New Orleans. |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals +7 v. 49ers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The San Francisco 49ers come into the 2020-21 NFL season as the Super Bowl loser. They coughed up a 10 point 4th quarter lead. Things have not gone well for the previous year's Super Bowl loser as they are 4-16 ATS over the last 20 years in game 1. Arizona has covered 5 straight vs San Francisco, and have covered 4 straight on the road in this series. I think Arizona is going to be considerably improved with Murray a bit more mature. Arizona Cliff Kingsbury certainly thinks so, as he promises to push the pace, and the Cards were already ranked 4th last year in that department. He now has a top shelf core of receivers with DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. San Francisco comes into game 1 pretty banged up. I think the Cards are going to surprise a lot of people here this year, and have played well in San Francisco. Make the play on Arizona. |
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09-13-20 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 11-21 | Win | 100 | 50 h 60 m | Show |
There are many that will look at this NE Patriot team as one that is on its way for a steep decline. They had the most players opt out of the season due to covid-19, Tom Brady has left, and everything seems primed for a free fall. Well, I`m not in that camp. Brady was very average last year, but the Pats still managed over 25ppg. Brady will be missed, but he won`t be missed in terms of where he was last year as an aging superstar, that had become very ordinary. The Pats covered 67% of their games in the Brady era when he was out. (19 games). Cam Newton, assuming he is just ordinary, and he certainly will be motivated to prove something, and he said for the first time in 3 years he is whole and healthy again. One thing Brady and his mediocre receivers faced was defenses that often times played 6 defensive backs against them. (close to 20% of all snap). Brady was 0 threat to run, and Newton brings another dimension, as he can run the ball, and the mediocre receivers will have a lot more room to roam, with Newton being a threat to run. Belichick has the ability to get players in a place they can succeed. The Miami offense is likely to be among the worst in the league. They will be led by 38 year old Ryan Fitzpick-6. I don`t think there is a lot of magic left in that arm. Belichick seldom loses 2 in a row to the same team, in fact he is 57-30-3 ATS in his last 90 games in this spot. He is also 52-22 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 7 points. Make the play on New England.
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09-12-20 | Georgia Tech +13 v. Florida State | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
The Florida St. Seminoles have been just 18-20 SU over the last 3 seasons. This is one of the worst stretches ever for this program. Georgia Tech enters off a horrible 3-9 season, but last year was a transitional year away from the option under new coach Geoff Collins. Mike Norvell is an upgrade, but I don't like backing a 1st year head coach in game one, especially this year with covid-19 eliminating all spring practices. There is a lot of talent, but new schemes on both sides of the ball, and little practice time, puts Florida St. behind early in the season. The Seminoles are now learning their 4th offense in 4 years. QB James Blackmon has put up some strong numbers but has thrown 22 INTs already in his career. The weak spot in the Florida St. offense is an OL that allowed 48 sacks a year ago. They have lost a lot of those players for less experience, so that is going to take time to come around. The defense ranked as one of the worst in the country, and they have a lot to prove in the secondary where they ranked 119th in the country. This is just too many points here, and I will make the play on Georgia Tech. |
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09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame UNDER 53.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
Notre Dame will be a member of the ACC in the strange year of covid-19. This has long been a team predicated on defense. Over the last 179 Irish games the under has prevailed 100-74-5 ATS, with just an average of 49 total points having been scored despite the average total being posted in their games having been 53.2. There is a long term bias on this team's posted totals. It may be attributable of the huge following this team has, and square bettors opting for the over the majority of the time. Once again I see that bias at work in the total here as I see 6-7 points worth of value. Notre Dame in its last 350 games has allowed 18.4ppg. that drops to 15.1ppg in game 1. Duke averaged a misleading 25ppg a year ago, but against the better defensive teams they were extremely limited, and managed just 7 vs ND. Former Clemson QB Chase Brice will be the Duke QB, but with limited practice time, and a strong defense, I'm not believing he will have a whole lot of success. This total is quite tainted in history, and as it stands now. Make the play on the under. |
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09-12-20 | UL-Monroe +22.5 v. Army | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
Nothing like opening the season with a 42-0 win as Army did. The Army bandwagon immediately filled up, and their game with UL Monroe which opened at -14.5 has soared to -22/-22.5. That is totally out of hand, and the books algorithms don't miss by 8+ points. The fact that Army won 10+ games for 2 straight years, and appear to be good again, has the public opinion of this team beyond expectations. The public is dismissing the 5-8 season from a year ago. The 5 wins came against 2 FCS teams, and UMass (1-11), Texas San Antonio (4-8)and Rice (3-9). Army has a new QB in Christian Anderson, and that usually means mistakes running the triple option. Army ran the ball 62 times but at just 5.6 yards per carry, which is not conducive for scoring 42 points, so the offensive numbers are somewhat misleading. They may improve upon that this week vs a UL Monroe team that was awful against the run a year ago, and will likely be equally as bad this year. Army had a 4-0 turnover advantage in that game, and another clean game by Anderson, and the high risk Army triple option is not likely, and neither is a +4 in turnovers. The opening line was pretty close to what I would have made it, but as most bettors base this week's bets on last week's results (perception), has forced the books to move this one way too far. I will make the play on Army in this one. |
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09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74.5 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
The Arkansas Red Wolves have a long history of being a very strong team at home, but a very weak one on the road. When it comes to playing outside the conference the numbers only get worse. Arkansas St. is 40-24 SU at home outside the conference, and over the same period of time they are 7-103-5 SU on the road. The average score of the games at home have been 31.7 to 21.6 on the road just 13.7 to 35.7. This has led to an abundance of games failing to get to the total, as the under is cashing just 27.2% of all games. One huge change in the Red Wolves offense is the loss of WR Omar Bayless and his 17 TDs and 1,653 yards. He averaged nearly 12 yards per target, and that simply will not be replaced. The Memphis defense should be better this year with 8 returning starters and the entire secondary. A high total like this in game 1 and the situation here tends to look inflated. Make the play on the under. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
The NCAA Football season will truly get underway tonight. The South Alabama Jaguars finished 2-10 a year ago, so not a lot of people are taking a hard look at this team. There is a lot of changes from year to year, but one big hint came at the end of last season. The Jags averaged just 18.3ppg a year ago, including 11.4ppg vs division 1-A opponents prior to the last 4 games of the season. They averaged 26ppg over the last 4. So what changed? Desperate for a QB they inserted freshman Desmond Trotter. Trotter threw 8 TDs to just 2 INTs in the 4 games. He has 4 members of the OL returning along with 7 of the top 8 pass catchers. Jack Abrahms of S. Miss had a very good year, but was held back by his 15 INT's and lost 5 of his top 7 pass catchers. The biggest loss is All-CUSA WR Quez Watkins, who was drafted by the Eagles. The Eagles defense now has just 4 starters returning, with 2 players opting out. Overall, this game should be pretty competitive, and I like South Alabama to get the money in this one. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
DEEBO SAMUEL MVP +2500 (1/2 of 1 UNIT) |
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01-19-20 | Packers +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 18 m | Show |
The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers meet for all the marbles with the winner going to the Super Bowl. All the stuffed suits are explaining how the Packers have no chance. Aaron Rodgers is off, missing passes. He has just one bonafide receiver in DeVonte Adams. The Packers can't run the ball on this team, so the only other weapon the Packers have in Adam Jones will be negated. The Packers didn't cross midfield until under 9 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter in game one. They were undressed 37-8 in that game and totaled fewer than 200 yards. Rodgers threw for under 4 yards per pass attempt. On and on it goes to the point my NFL contrarian has been triggered. Remember the 2010 playoffs. The Jets were spanked by New England 48-3. The Jets went to New England and won. Well, a team that won the regular-season game and meet in the playoffs are: playoffs = 1 and P:W and P:season = seasonSU:70-51-0 (1.44, 57.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:48-68-5 (-1.24, 41.4%) How about apples to apples. They won as a home favorite are a home favorite again?: playoffs = 1 and P:HFW and P:season = season and HFSU:24-11-0 (4.37, 68.6%) Teaser RecordsATS:13-21-1 (-2.20, 38.2%)Even worse. How about more apples to apples. Same as above, but they won the regular-season game by more than 4 TD's (>28 points): playoffs = 1 and P:HFW and P:season = season and HF and P:margin > 28SU:3-1-0 (2.00, 75.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:0-4-0 (-6.25, 0.0%)Obviously this doesn't happen much. The point of all this is simple, what happened at best in the first game doesn't matter or what happened in the 1st game matters a lot. That first game saw GB complete a 10-yard pass to Adams on the first drive, but he gt a 15-yard penalty. Next play a strip-sack, and SF scores from the 2. Brian Bulaga and David Bakhtiari matter on the GB offensive line. Bulaga was injured in the first quarter and never returned, and Bakhtiari played poorly a lot of the season, but from that game on he has been all-pro caliber again. Rodgers was sacked 5 times, with countless hurries, and I think things are different. Many will claim the Packers are the worst 14-3 team to ever reach the Championship game. They have been out-gained on the season by opponents. All the optics look bad. There is a reason they are 14-3. They don't turn the ball over, and that is a biggest factor of all stats. The Packers had 10 clean games this season (0 turnovers). They were 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in those games. San Francisco had 4 clean games. A playoff dog that wins the turnover battle is 66-9-4 ATS. If they are a dog from +2 to +9.5 they are 62-5-3 ATS. I don't know who is going to win the turnover battle. What I do know is turnovers will determine the outcome more than any other stats by light-years. I'm betting contrarian on the game and supporting that with the fact that the Packers have a strong chance for a clean game, and the Niners do not. Make the play on Green Bay.
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 13 m | Show |
It all comes down to one game as both Clemson and LSU are undefeated. So who will complete the perfect season? There is a lot to unpack here so let's get started. LSU completely throttled Oklahoma. There is not a whole lot to take away from that game as LSU struck early and often. Their offense was off the charts good, as it has been most of the season. Most of the time these games come down to big plays, crucial stops, and turnovers. Both offenses are capable of big plays, but I think the Clemson defense is more capable of big plays than the LSU defense. I say that because of this. here are comparable QB's and offenses the Clemson has had to navigate last year and this year in the playoffs: Tua Tagobialoa 43 TDs 4 INTs 11.2 yards per attempt scored 16 pointsJustin Fields 40 TDs 1 INT 9.4 scored 23 pointsJoe Burrow 55 TDs 6 INTs 10.9 scored ??***************************************************************************************************************************The Clemson defense intercepted 4 passes vs those 2 QBs that had combined to throw 5 all season. Wrap around that! Those teams were held to 19.5ppg and comparing their offenses to LSU: Alabama 48.1Ohio St. 48.7LSU 48.9**************************************************************************************************************************Sustaining a scoring drive vs this defense that allows 11.5ppg is most challenging. The 39 points scored against them mostly came on big plays. Ohio St. scored because of a 76-yard run and a 64-yard run, Alabama scored on a 62-yard pass. Otherwise, Clemson allowed 1 TD on a sustained scoring drive. Many will point to the LSU offense scoring 46 on Alabama, but the Tide allowed 18.6ppg this year, the most since 2007! They had a good defense, just not up to the standards of previous teams. The LSU offense is extremely good. They score 97% of the time in red-zone drives. That being said, their 4 games against the 4 best defenses they saw this year saw this year looked like this: Florida 15.5 allowed 42Auburn 19.5 23Alabama 18.6 46Georgia 12.6 37***************************************Average 37******************************************************************************************************************************If you look at the line and total the oddsmakers say about 37. Personally, I don't think they get there. None of their last 43 opponents have. looking at the turnover battle, the edge has to be with Clemson. The Clemson offense has not turned the ball over since week 8 outside of a backup QB throwing an interception. Since that time Clemson has averaged 50.6ppg and allowed 11ppg, and covered every game except vs Wofford as a -47.5 point favorite, and has averaged 572 yards per game, LSU has allowed 23.3ppg since then. here is another thing to wrap around. Clemson's last 17 games vs an undefeated opponent have seen them go 17-0 SU! Sure some of these were early-season games, but they have been 9-0 SU to a line of +10.5 to -10.5 averaging 32.4 and allowing 19.9, and 3-0 as a dog winning 40-27 on average, and they are 7-1 ATS in 8 playoff games and their 6 playoff games since 2016 they have allowed 97 points, or 16.2ppg and no team topped 35. They have faced 4 teams that were unbeaten in the playoffs and none of them scored more than 31 points. While the passing games get most of the ink an underdog on a neutral field that outrushes their opponent on the season by more than 95 yards per game is 22-4-1 ATS vs a better than .650 opponent, including 14-1-1 ATS to a line of fewer than 7 points, and on average in the 16 games outscores that opponent by 6 points per game. Make the play on Clemson. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -106 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
The Green Bay Packers will square off with the Seattle Seahawks for the right to play of the NFC Championship. These teams have both had a penchant for playing in and winning close games. The Packers were 8-1 in 1 possession games, and Seattle was an amazing 11-2 in 1 possession games. that really puts a strong emphasis on points here. If you asked the question of who would you want engineering a last possession drive with the game on the line, unquestionably that would be Aaron Rodgers. This year for my money it would be Russell Wilson. The game situation agrees as take a look at the following: week = 19 and A and po:points 2002 and (total > 45.5 or total < 43) and wins > 9 and op:points < 35SU:12-13-0 (0.44, 48.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:24-1-0 (5.84, 96.0%) avg line: 5.4 The points just look too important to ignore in this one. Make the play on Seattle.
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 30 m | Show |
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans in the AFC divisional round. this team has undertaken many transformations since the start of the 2018 season. Let's break this team down to 2019, the first 10 games of 2019, and the final 6 games of 2019 and you will see the transformation: 2019 avg, points scored 34.8 avg points allowed 2019 26.22018 1st 10 28.4 23.92018 last 6 27.8 11.5*******************************************************************************************************************The Chiefs score 7 points fewer than last season overall but look at the quantum leap in defense. They have shaved 14.7ppg off of last season and in their last 6 games this year, and 12.4ppg since where they were through 10 games. Andy Reid, given time to prepare and in the right spot has the following: coach=Andy Reid and rest in [12,13] and season>1999 and line>-14 and o:WP
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01-11-20 | Titans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
The Baltimore Ravens have been the best team in the NFL from week 5 out, as they are 12-0. They will take on a Tennessee team that has become completely different since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. The weather for this game is questionable, although the timing is questionable. There will be a major squall line going through Baltimore, with heavy rain and high winds. It does look like that will hold off until very late in the hame or after the game, but not 100% certain. If it comes through earlier than expected it could certainly change things. Baltimore just looks like too obvious a choice. There have been many Baltimore's before in the NFL playoffs. What I mean are invincible looking teams, that finish the season on very long winning streaks, and the pressure becomes incredibly high when they take the field for the 1st time in the playoffs. Here is proof of that. A team in the playoffs on a greater than 8 game winning streak or longer is just: playoffs = 1 and streak > 8SU:9-10-0 (0.63, 47.4%) ATS:3-16-0 (-4.18, 15.8%) Baltimore also fits a subset of that which is 0-16 ATS: playoffs=1 and streak>8 and wins>11 and tA(points)>21.5 and oA(points)
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
The New England Patriots needed to win last week to get a bye in the playoffs. They failed miserably against a poor Miami team as a better than 2 TD home favorite. So a lot of piling on has taken place and mostly suggesting the Patriots and their aging QB and lack of playmakers are finished. That presents an opportunity to buy the Pats low. Never underestimate the game planning of Bill Belichick. he knows the limitations of his offense, but he also knows the elite ability of his defense especially going against a QB that has never appeared in a playoff game. Since realignment occurred in the NFL in 2002 a QB making his 1st start vs one that isn't is 10-28 SU and 11-27 ATS. Belichick knows Tannehill well and has dominated him as he is 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS vs NE on the road: Here's how Tannehill's Dolphins teams fared at Gillette Stadium: 2012: 28-0 loss2013: 27-17 loss2014: 41-13 loss2015: 36-7 loss2016: 31-24 loss2018: 38-7 lossA team that lost its previous game as a -9.5 favorite or more is 101-71-5 ATS in its next game. (I have a 40-14-2 ATS subset of that as well). There are kinds of situations that heavily favor NE off a loss. Many feel it is over for New England, but Yogi Berra once said,"It ain't over until it is over." Make the play on New England.
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01-04-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 56.5 | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
Tulane started the season 5-1 but finished 1-5. A lot of that had to do with scheduling as the Green Wave lost to UCF, Memphis, SMU, Navy, and Temple. Their 6th loss was to Auburn. They were up yo task against several elite teams. One thing the Green Wave has done is averaged 41.1ppg as a favorite in their last 8. S. Miss has a very good passing attack that averages 8.8 yards per attempt. See some value on the total here as AAV teams have seen Bowl games average over 63.1ppg all-time and the over has cashed 57% of the time. Make the play on the over. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
The Nevada Wolfpack has been dealt a bad hand for their Bowl game. They lost 3 defensive players to suspension and 2 are DB`s further enhancing the mismatch already in place with a high octane Ohio U. passing attack. A 4th defensive starter will miss the 1st half and a 5th is questionable. While the weather is usually an issue in Boise, ID. in January it will not today as the temperature will be 50 degrees with light winds. Ohio St. duel threat QB Nathan O`Rourke is going to be difficult to handle, and with a lack of depth on defense, the Wolfpack could be wilting in the 4th quarter. Ohio also fits a 25-5 ATS Bowl situation based in part by their poor ATS mark this season. Make the play on Ohio, U. |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee -2.5 v. Indiana | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The story at Indiana is a great one. Indiana has win 8 games for the 1st time since 1993, and the program has never won 9. That looks and sounds great but here is the Hoosiers reality. They did mot neat a single Bowl eligible team all season, and the combined record of their opponents in their 7 wins vs FBS teams is 31-66. They will be up against a lot more than that tonight with an equally motivated Tennessee team that started the season ugly at 1-4 but they proceeded to go 6-1 in the rugged SEC. Tennessee has the edge from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and with both teams motivated, look for the talent to win out. Make the play on Tennessee. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
It was a very strong year for the Cincinnati Bearcats, but the ending to this point has been painful. They lost each of their last 2 games to Memphis and should be in an ornery mood for this one. the calling card for Cincinnati is defense and Boston College who ran the ball all season will have to replace A.J. Dillon and his 1,685 yards as he sits out to prepare for the NFL draft. BC is also missing fired coach as Rich Gunnell will take over the play-calling. The BC defense has been poor all season and without their best offensive player will find it tough to keep up vs a very strong Cincinnati defense. make the play on Cincinnati. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
This game is from my super total system and the play is on the under. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor +5.5 v. Georgia | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
Matt Rhule has now become an elite coach. he turned a pathetic Temple program around and has now transformed a Baylor program ridden with filth into a power. he has an incredible record getting his team prepared when his team is the weaker one in the fight. His coaching career shows 4 winning seasons and playing as a dog, in those 4 years, his team is 13-10 SU and 20-3 ATS. That becomes 13-7 SU and 19-1 ATS when not a dog of more than 14 points. His team has outscored opponents by 5.6 points per game to an average line of 6. Make the play on Baylor |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +3 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
The Oregon Ducks are coming off a big win vs Utah putting together perhaps their best game of the season. They have 2 losses coming against Auburn and Arizona St. Oregon played very well in the Auburn game and Utah game, their biggest physical tests of the season. They have a sure 1st round pick in the NFL draft at QB in Hebert. The Wisconsin defense recorded 4 shutouts in their first 6 games but took a step back when the competition got stiffer but is still very good. I think Oregon has the better "A" game and a better offense. teams that come into a Bowl game off winning a Championship game vs a team losing a Championship game tend to excel as they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS. The Pac-12 has struggled of late in Bowl games, but in this spot they have excelled: game type = BG and conference in [P12 , P10] and month = 1 and line >= -6 and line 6 and o:wins < 13 and season > 1982 and oA(points) > 30 SU:19-5-0 (12.96, 79.2%)Teaser Records ATS:22-2-0 (13.08, 91.7%) Make the play on Oregon. |
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01-01-20 | Michigan +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
It has been a long time since Alabama has not played in the playoffs or BCS Championship. Bowls are a lot about motivation, and it is hard to see this Alabama team bringing a full tank to this game. They will be without 2 elite defenders that have decided to skip and get ready for the NFL draft. Anytime a team faces the Crimson Tide it is motivating all unto itself and I expect a big effort from a very good Michigan team. This Alabama defense is pretty good, but at the same time, it has allowed more points than any Alabama team since 2008 and will be missing their best 2 defenders. Michigan has a great "A" game which was seen in a blowout win vs Notre Dame and I fully expect to see it here. Make the play on Michigan. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -7 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
It has been a breakout season for Minnesota winning 10 games. However, the schedule was very weak (#61 in the country). They had a big win against Penn St. but looking inside that game the Nittany Lions were off 3 straight big games and still won the line of scrimmage but were done in by 3 turnovers in a 5 point Minnesota win at home. Auburn, by contrast, had the #2 schedule in the country losing to Florida, LSU, and Georgia while beating Oregon and Alabama. last year they faced a B-10 upstart in Purdue and won 63-14. I think the fact that their best player Derrick Brown said he wants to play in the Bowl game and will, sends a loud message to his team that they are in this to win. Auburn is too deep and too quick for a Minnesota team that had a great season to a very suspect schedule. A team off a series of home games entering their Bowl game is usually pretty good: game type = BG and p:HW and pp:HW and ppp:H and season > 1997SU:13-3-0 (13.12, 81.2%) Teaser RecordsATS:14-2-0 (10.78, 87.5%)Make the play on Auburn.
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12-31-19 | Texas +7 v. Utah | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 81 h 16 m | Show |
Motivation is a crucial element in a Bowl game. State of mind os a huge factor. If we look back at past teams that are in the same spot that Utah is for this game it becomes very revealing: game type = BG and p:game type = CH and p:margin 2005 and month = 12 and line
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12-31-19 | Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
There is a lot to unpack for this Bowl game. There are a lot of defections on both sides heading to the NFL that will not play. There are coaching changes deep into both staffs. What there is here is the reputation and pride that has driven Florida St. in Bowl games almost forever. This energy is tough to go against, so I won't, I will embrace it. game type = BG and team = FLST and o:WP < 91 and line >= -10 SU:18-4-1 (9.13, 81.8%)Teaser Records ATS:20-3-0 (8.09, 87.0%) Florida St. is the King of Bowl domination at 20-3 ATS as ling as they are not a 10 point favorite or more, and their opponent is not elite and has a winning percentage of less than .910. More recently they are 15-1 ATS in this spot, with the only ATS loss coning by 1/2 of a point. Make the play on Florida St. |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
The Kentucky ground game has devastated their last 3 opponents to the tune of 1,380 yards in their last 3 games. That is an average of 460 yards per contest. It might be a lot tougher in this one as with no threat in the passing game and against one of the best-run stop units in the country in Virginia Tech loading the box, yards aren't going to come easy. The bigger problem is if they get behind they have little to offer in the passing game. Tech has an elite passing game and should be able to move the chains effectively. Kentucky is in an awful Bowl situation which is 7-41 ATS, which is based in part on their recent ATS prowess. Make the play on Virginia Tech. |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida -14 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 40 m | Show |
This game fits a situation I love. When a team gives up from 40 to 64 points in their last game before their Bowl and are from a P5 conference other than the SEC, they are 25-53 ATS (1-12 ATS lately). Make the play on Florida. |
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12-30-19 | Mississippi State -4 v. Louisville | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
There are a couple of strong situations on Miss St. in this one. A team that is coming off 2 straight home wins and also played at home 3 games back tends to do well as they have been home for many weeks without having to travel. This seems to pit a team in a comfort zone as they are 14-1 ATS in Bowl games since 1998: game type = BG and p:HW and pp:HW and ppp:H and season > 1997SU:13-2-0 (14.67, 86.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:14-1-0 (12.43, 93.3%)Bigger than that is poor ATS teams in the right spot vs a good ATS team tend to cover in their Bowl game: game type = BG and tS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100) 0) / tS(ats margin>-100) > 0.5 and oS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100) < 0.8SU:117-93-1 (2.49, 55.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:129-78-4 (3.87, 62.3%) Make the play on Miss St.
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 19 m | Show |
There are 2 areas of this game I really like. W. Kentucky can't run the ball and that is the weakness of the W. Michigan defense. The 2nd part is these teams are both about the same from the line of scrimmage. Conference USA is just 1-4 in 5 Bowl games so far. W. Michigan fits in a simple but predictive Bowl situation that is 41-23: game type = 'BG' and p:FL and op:FW and DSU:29-35-0 (-2.77, 45.3%) Teaser RecordsATS:41-23-0 (2.72, 64.1%) avg line: 5.5It plays on a Bowl team off a favorite loss if they are a dog vs a team that is off a favorite win. Make the play on W. Michigan.
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State +2 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 17 m | Show |
This game will take the winner into the National Championship game vs either LSU or Oklahoma. Clemson faced Ohio St. in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl in the semi-finals round and crushed them 31-0. While these teams have similar numbers on both sides of the ball, where they came from is entirely different. Ohio St. put up somewhat better numbers having played #8 Wisconsin twice, #10 Penn St., and #14 Michigan. They also beat Cincinnati 42-0. Clemson had 0 games bs the top 20 and very few vs the top 50. It remains to be seen how that all translates but I see it as an edge for Ohio St. Ohio St. makes for a food underdog as they are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 in this role and 15-2 ATS in their last 17. the difference in this game to me is that Ohio St. led the nation converting 57% in 3rd down. maintaining drives has been important all season. The other factor is Chase Young. he is the biggest disrupter on the field playing defense and Trevor Lawrence may be forced into a mistake or get antsy back there. he could wreck the entire game for the Clemson offense. Add in that the Buckeyes have not 2, but 3 NFL CBs and I think the edge belongs to the Buckeyes. Make the play on Ohio St.
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
This is for a chance to play for the National Championship. If you look at these teams statistically they are pretty much a dead heat. If you go strictly by the eye test LSU has been playing lights out, and Oklahoma isn't scoring at the rate they were earlier in the season. each game provides a unique challenge, and there will be a lot more pressure on LSU here as a2 TD favorite to get it done. Oklahoma has lost key players to suspension and injury, but I don't think that will matter much. If there is a vulnerability to this LSU team it is a very good running QB. They struggled vs Ole Miss allowing 400+ rushing yards, and also against Texas. Alabama has a power running game as well and in those 3 games, the Tigers allowed a total of 123 points or 41ppg. Oklahoma has all of that and more with Jalen Hurts who was responsible for 50 TDs all by himself. Hurts not only passes for 11 yards per attempt, but he has also run for 1,255 yards and 18 TDs. There is speed and game-breakers all over the field. The Sooners also have a kicker that is 17-17 and has range beyond 50 yards. Edwards-Helaire is a big deal. he is the entire running game for the Tigers and he is hobbling some and not 100% and his status is questionable. The Sooners have been big dogs of 10 or more just 3 times since 2013 and have won 2 of them and covered them all including a 14 point win vs Alabama as a -16.5 point favorite. Despite facing top defensive teams in the 3 games, the Sooners scored 112 points or 37.3ppg. Those were much better defenses than LSU, by far. yes, Oklahoma has not scored nearly as well in their last 4 games, but the yards have been there (477 yds per game), against much better defenses than LSU. Just remember this. Since October 26, 1996, Oklahoma is 24-4 SU and 27-1 ATS if they score 30+ points as long as they are not a favorite of -3.5 points or more. The only loss was as a +3 dog in overtime, so they even out-played that line in regulation. Look at that straight-up number. That is with no games as a favorite of more than 3 and includes 5-0 ATS as a double-digit dog and 4-1 SU! Of course, there is no guarantee they will score 30 points, certainly loke their chances. Make the play on Oklahoma. |
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12-28-19 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 9-33 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
A lot of could have beens for the Iowa St. Cyclones. this is a much better team than the 7-5 record would have you believe. They lost 1 point games vs Iowa, and Oklahoma, and a 2 point game to Baylor. The Baylor and Oklahoma losses were on the road. Their last 2 Bowl games resulted in a 1 point win and a 2 point loss. This team could easily be 10-2. Notre Dame does not do well in Bowl games as they are 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when they have had 8 or more wins. Cyclones are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 as a dog. Notre Dame fits a Bowl situation that is 7-41 ATS as well. make the play on Iowa St. |
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12-28-19 | Memphis v. Penn State -7 | Top | 39-53 | Win | 100 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
This is the best Memphis team ever at 12-1 and they earned a trip to the Cotton Bowl to face Penn St. They are facing some difficult circumstances however as Mike Norvell left for the Florida St. job and took DC Adam Fuller with him. There is no one left on the staff that has ever called plays before. They will also have a game plan devised by those never having made one on their own. They will face a very quick Penn St. team that has the best defense by far they will have seen all season. Penn St. was down by 4 at Ohio St. before losing by 11 in the Buckeyes closest call of the season. Memphis did not have nearly as challenging of a schedule as they were favored by 9.5 points or more in 9 of their games and did not play as an underdog all season. This is the caliber team they have not seen this year that does well in Bowl games (18-12 ATS). Make the play on Penn St. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State +2.5 v. Air Force | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
Bowl teams that are 6-6 or worse and facing a team better than 6-6 to a line of +2 or more but less than +11 are: game type = BG and WP 50 and line >= 2 and line |
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa -2 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
This game fits a horrible situation against USC: game type = BG and ats streak >= 3 and ats streak < 10 and line > -7 and line < 5 and wins < 11 and month = 12 SU:34-69-0 (-4.79, 33.0%)Teaser Records ATS:29-74-0 (-5.98, 28.2%) play against a bowl team on an ats streak of 3-9 games of they are not a -7 point favorite or more or a dog of +5 points or more in December Bowls providing they have fewer than 11 wins. make the play on Iowa. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will play after sitting out the last 2 games with a thumb injury. make no mistake about motivation here, Mike Gundy comes to Bowl games to win. His team has won 3 straight Bowl games and 7 of 9 averaging 36.8ppg in the process, with all 9 games vs P5 opponents. While Texas A&M had an impossible schedule they failed to beat any team this season with a winning record. Oklahoma St. os 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a dog, and Gundy usually has a trick play or 2 for an added edge. make the play on Oklahoma St. |
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12-27-19 | North Carolina -5 v. Temple | Top | 55-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
It has been a long way back for North Carolina who will be playing in a Bowl game for the first time since 2016. They also enter on a 3 game Bowl losing skid. They dusted off their former coach Mack Brown and he has already impacted a program by winning 6 games after the previous 2 years saw just 5 combined wins. His most recent stint in Texas saw him win 9 of his last 12 Bowls and he won his last 2 when at NC. That is a huge difference from Temple 1st year coach Rod Carey who went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS in 6 Bowls at N. Illinois. (average loss 25ppg). This game will come down to the NC elite passing offense vs the Temple elite passing defense. the Temple defense really struggled against the 2 elite passing offenses they saw this season in SMU and Central Florida where they gave up 1,279 yards and 108 points. The Temple offense really struggles, and Temple has proven to struggle against elite passing attacks. Temple also facing a situation that is 29-74 ATS that in part plays against a Bowl team ob an extended ATS winning streak. Make the play on North Carolina. |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh v. Eastern Michigan +13 | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a big deal for E. Michigan to play in a Bowl close to home in Detroit. Coach Chris Creighton has completely changed the culture at E. Michigan. His teams have won 25 games over the last 4 years something that took 11 years to do previously. The 4-year record shows 30-17-3 ATS. he will take on a Pittsburgh team that is 7-5 on the season but has been outscored by opponents. Pitt has no offense and averaged 20ppg but does have a solid defense. The main factor here is motivation. Pitt seemed to play the top teams on its schedule tough losing to Penn St. by just 7 and beating Central Florida. here is a pretty glaring stat. The Panthers have not won a game all season by more than 10 points and here they are as nearly a 2 TD favorite vs a motivated team. A December Bowl team that averages fewer than 38.5ppg and is a favorite of -8 or more is 32-57 ATS. There is also a 23-5 ATS situation that plays on certain Bowl teams with a poor ATS record. make the play on E. Michigan. |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
It is hard to see that Miami, Fla. has any motivational interest in this game. They finished the season a disappointing 6-6 despite the fact that the average line in their games has been as a -10 point favorite and this will be their 10th time as a favorite. They have never been a dog of more than a TD all season as well. A favorable schedule, and unfavorable results. They lost 3 games outright as a favorite of -10, -18, and -18.5, and won another by 5 points as a -29 point favorite. making things worse are a pair of defensive ends sitting out that combined for 9.5 sacks, and a LB that was 2nd on the team in tackles and made 12.5 tackles for a loss. They will also be without WR Jeff Thomas. LA Tech will be playing an hour from home, making the 1 hour trip due west in I-20 and will have the fans behind them. Tech lost to Texas in the opener 45-14 but the yards show 413-454 and J'mar Smith threw for 340 yards at 8.3 yards per attempt. Speaking of Smith, Tech has won 9 straight with him at QB, as 2 losses came while he served a 2 game suspension. A win here will gibe LA Tech 10 wins, a school record. This is the 6th straight Bowl appearance by LA Tech, and they have won the previous 5 and are now 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowls. They fit a Bowl situation that is 55-29 ATS as well. Motivated dog vs an unmotivated favorite here. Make the play on LA Tech. |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 13 m | Show |
The Green Bay Packers are 11-3 and are almost a TD underdog in Minnesota. There are a lot of reasons for that. The Packers are being out-gained substantially by opponents on the season, and in their last 6 games has out-gained just Washington, while being out-gained by the LA Chargers, Carolina, SF, NYG, and Chicago. long ago the St. Louis Cardinals have coined the fastest team on turf. Well, Minnesota is the best team on turf. the Vikings on turf as a less than double-digit favorite prior to week 17 are 27-3 SU and 27-3 ATS (14-0 SU/ATS lately). The Packers are not or never have been a good turf team. They are 78-50-2 ATS on the road playing on grass and 53-74-1 ATS on turf. Rodgers is 7-18 ATS in his last 25 as a road dog. The first game saw GB get out to a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the 2nd quarter at home and had to hold on for a 21-16 win. That game saw Minnesota fumble a season-high 5 times (lost 2), but disrupted 3 other drives, and had 1 INT. Cousins 70.5% completions on the season was 14-32, and the Vikings were penalized 100 yards. Minnesota was 0-2 in the red-zone, while GB was 3-3, but did not sniff the red-zone for the last 44 minutes of the game. This is a huge revenge game for Minnesota, and they are in a very favorable matchup. Make the play on Minnesota. |
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12-23-19 | Marshall v. Central Florida UNDER 60.5 | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
High scoring teams tend to under-perform in Bowl games: game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total < 64 and season > 2007 and line |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals +10 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 55 h 33 m | Show |
When you are 11-3 and have a QB that is in the MVP talk, chances are your team has become overvalued by the public and subsequently, the marketplace reacts. What isn't very 11-3 like is the fact that Seattle has out-gained opponents by just 9 yards per game on the season, numbers that more resemble a 7-7 team and not an 11-3 team. So why is it that Seattle is 11-3? Look no further than turnovers. The last 5 Seattle games have seen 16 opponent turnovers. Despite that, Seattle has not won any of the 5 games by more than one possession. They are outscoring opponents on the season by fewer than 2 points per contest. They have 11 wins, but just 1 has come by more than one possession and that came back in September. Home of the 12th man and the perception of a tremendous home-field advantage doesn't exist anymore. The Seahawks have been outscored at home this season and have beaten the two worst teams they faced here by a combined 7 points (Bengals, and Bucs). Seattle has a date with SF next week and that could divert their attention from the Cardinals. QB Kyler Murray has not changed the win column much but he has helped make the Cards competitive as they are 9-5 ATS on the season and Murray is 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Turnovers are mostly random, and a team that has benefitted by more than 15 opponent turnovers in their last 5 games cover just 44% of the time (128-163-11 ATS). Seattle has a lot of injuries with 18 players on the injury report at various levels. Make the play on Arizona.
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12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 46 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule: week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8 SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%) avg line: 4.3+6: 97-41-3 (70.3%) -6: 36-102-3 (26.1%) +10: 111-27-3 (80.4%) -10: 24-116-1 (17.1%) O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%) Make the play on the under. |
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12-22-19 | Lions v. Broncos UNDER 38.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule: week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8 SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%) avg line: 4.3+6: 97-41-3 (70.3%) -6: 36-102-3 (26.1%) +10: 111-27-3 (80.4%) -10: 24-116-1 (17.1%) O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%) Make the play on the under. |
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12-22-19 | Giants v. Redskins UNDER 42 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
When it gets late in the season (week 15 and on), and you have what I call a snoozer game between 2 teams that each have a losing record there is nothing to play for, and they seem to play to get the game over with. this leads to low scoring games as a rule: week >= 15 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50 and AD and total > 36 and total < 46.5 and line < 8 SU:47-94-0 (-4.46, 33.3%)Teaser Records ATS:66-73-2 (-0.20, 47.5%) avg line: 4.3+6: 97-41-3 (70.3%) -6: 36-102-3 (26.1%) +10: 111-27-3 (80.4%) -10: 24-116-1 (17.1%) O/U:48-92-1 (-2.83, 34.3%) Make the play on the under. |
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12-21-19 | Washington -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 54 h 14 m | Show |
Once again the Boise St. Broncos have had a stellar season at 12-1. perhaps the storyline here is their former coach Chris Peterson will be coaching his last game for Washington. This just doesn't have the look of the typical Boise St. power. They have used 3 QB's this season and the schedule was ranked in the 80s this season. These teams are both pretty even from the line of scrimmage but Washington did so to a much more difficult schedule. The biggest edge may be motivation and special teams here for Washington. Washington is ranked top 15 in special teams, and Peterson has been known for successful trickery in Bowl games and his team will want to send him off with a win. make the play on Washington. |
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12-21-19 | Florida International +2.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
Butch Davis has turned the FIU program around as this will be the Panthers 3rd straight Bowl game and won for the 1st time last year. That win came without QB James Morgan, who has returned and has to be highly motivated to play in a Bowl after missing it last season. This is not only an experienced Bowl team they ranked in the top 20 of experienced teams coming into the season. They needed an impossible win over Miami, Fla. and got the huge upset. Arkansas St. is food offensively but the defense is one of the worst in the country after losing 4 defensive linemen starters to injury over the course of the season. looking at important stat matchups most favor FIU and they are a dog coming into this game, and I believe the wrong team is favored. The history of 6-6 Bowl teams that want to finish with a winning season has been 44-13 ATS in this spot. Play on FIU. |
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12-21-19 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 71 | Top | 28-52 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic will be at home vs SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Both these teams love to put the ball in the air, but the weather may curtail what is supposed to be a shootout. The winds are going to have a lot to say about this one with sustained winds of 20 MPH and husts to over 30 during the game. Rain is in the forecast as well. Bowl games with a total of fewer than 73 points with a team that averages over 40pph have played under the total to a 59-31-1 ATS. make the play on the under. |
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12-20-19 | Kent State +6.5 v. Utah State | Top | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
The Kent St. Golden Flashes finished the season needing to win their last 3 games to qualify for a Bowl and did so. They are the only Bowl team to have done so. Kent St. took on an aggressive out of conference schedule against Auburn, Arizona St., and Wisconsin. This team has come a long way after going 2-10 each of the last 2 years. The other 9 Kent St. games saw then not lose by more than 7 points in any of them. Utah St. is led by QB Jordan Love who has entered the NFL draft bit will play in the Bowl game. Love had a horrible season as last year he threw 28 TDs to 5 INTs and this year 17 TDs to 16 INTs. A Bowl team that is .500 or less and facing a team that is better than .500 to a line of +2 to +10.5 is 44-13 ATS in their Bowl game. Make the play on Kent St. |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo v. Charlotte UNDER 52.5 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
The Bahamas Bowl will see the winner collecting its 1st Bowl win in school history as Buffalo will take on Charlotte. perhaps the bigger story in this game is going to be the weather. The game time wind profile shows 30 MPH winds with husts to 45 MPH. This is going to for the most part negate the kicking and passing games. Buffalo runs the ball 50+ times a game, but without the threat of the pass Charlotte will stack the box and make it tougher to run. Charlotte prefers to throw the ball, but will be limited and Buffalo has been tough against the run. Biffalo comes in having played 5 straight to the over, but a Bowl team that enters their Bowl game off 3+ overs are 65-39-1 ATS to the under including 59-29-1 to the under if the total is fewer than 66 points. (37-13 as a favorite). Make the play on the under.
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12-15-19 | Bills +2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 129 h 42 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been rolling despite one of the worst offenses in the league. They have gotten by with defense and an inordinate amount of forced turnovers as their opponent has coughed the ball up 33 times in 13 games. Looking at the 8 wins the combined record of those opponents is 33-70-1. The combined record of their opponents in their 5 losses is 48-17. The defense allowed 26.4ppg in the losses and 14.8ppg in the wins. Do questions arise as to just how good this defense really is? I would think so. Buffalo is 9-4 on the season, and the eye-test says they are the better team. The Bills simply don't turn the ball over (just 2 turnovers in their last 8 games). Make the play on Buffalo. |
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12-15-19 | Falcons +11 v. 49ers | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
If there was ever team in a huge flat spot or breather alert it is the San Francisco 49ers. They are off 3 consecutive games vs Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans and after this one, they face the Rams and Seahawks. Atlanta has an offense that can compete vs a big line, and the Niners believe it or nor are a double-digit favorite for just the 2nd time in 6 years! (did not cover either). The Niners will be without most of their secondary and they are also down 3 defensive linemen. Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 hames and continue to play hard. Certainly could see a competitive game here, and the Falcons also have great backdoor potential. Make the play on Atlanta. |
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12-15-19 | Jaguars +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
If this was a college game it may be classified as the Inept Bowl. Hard to imagine any two teams matching up that are playing any worse. The Jags are the first team to lose 5 straight games by 17 or more points in 33 years, and Oakland has lost each of their last 3 by 21 or more points. ut is the injury report that has my attention that has 18 Raider players listed, as well as an 0-32 ATS situation. There is also this on the Jags: D and p:margin < -22 and op:L and op:margin < -3 and line < 10 and week < 17SU:73-93-0 (-2.10, 44.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:100-59-7 (3.04, 62.9%) avg line: 5.1 Make the play on Jacksonville.
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12-15-19 | Jaguars v. Raiders UNDER 47 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that os 27-3 ATS: H and po:points > 34 and ppo:points > 34 and tS(o:points,N=2) > 80 and 49 > total > 35 SU:13-18-0 (-2.84, 41.9%)Teaser Records ATS:13-18-0 (-2.29, 41.9%) avg line: 0.5+6: 20-11-0 (64.5%) -6: 7-22-2 (24.1%) +10: 27-4-0 (87.1%) -10: 1-28-2 (3.4%) O/U:3-27-1 (-8.94, 10.0%) Make the play on the under. |
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12-15-19 | Browns v. Cardinals OVER 49 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS and the play is on the under. |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy -10.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
The weather is supposed to be rainy here, but that won't impact these teams much as they both will be running the ball on nearly every down. Army has won 3 straight times in this series but things have changed. Ar,y has just 5 wins, 2 of which came vs FCS teams. Their stats vs FBS opponents are horrible. Navy has lost just twice and both losses cane vs ranked teams. there is one flaring stat about this rivalry. When the Army has been +5.5 points or more they are 0-18-1 SU and 7-12 ATS. When they have been posted at fewer than +5.5 points they are 15-5 SU and 9-10-1 ATS. Army has been 0-8 ATS in this series when posted from +7.5 to +14. make the play on Navy. |
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12-12-19 | Jets +17 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
The Baltimore Ravens are off 3 straight games vs elite teams. They will play their last 2 games vs elite teams. Sandwiched between all of that are the NY Jets. If there was ever a chance for a "breather alert" this is it for the Ravens. A full 60 minute "A" game performance is unlikely. Lamar Jackson is also on the injury report with a quad injury but he will play. I doubt he will be running as often as usual. The Jets run defense is among the best in the league, and without a totally healthy Jackson, they should get enough stops to be able to stay in the game. This has never been a food spot for the Ravens who are now 12-0 SU but kist 1-11 ATS as a favorite of -10.5 or more since 2010. favorites have dominated Thursday Night NFL Football, but not this year and home teams in 2019 have won just 53.5% SU the lowest mark in at least 28 years. Home favorites this year are just 47-73-6 ATS and 3-6 ATS on Thursday. The public has pushed this game into line value for the visitor. Make the play on the NY Jets. |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 47 m | Show |
AF and streak >= 8 and game number > 11 and line < -3.5 and date > 19981129SU:13-5-0 (1.33, 72.2%) Teaser RecordsATS:0-18-0 (-8.42, 0.0%) avg line: -9.8 Make the play on Buffalo.
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12-08-19 | Colts +3 v. Bucs | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
The reason the Bucs have 5 wins is Jameis Winston. The reason the Bucs have 7 losses is Jameis Winston. he has thrown multiple interceptions in half the Bucs games, and that is why this team is on a roller-coaster ride. He threw nome last week, which is ominous because the 3 previous times he did so he threw a combined total of 8 in his next game. he has 20 for the season. he has also been sacked 40 times on the season. he has thrown 78 INTs in 60 career games so this is nothing new. The Colt's blessing comes in disguise. They have lost 6 games this season and 5 have been by 2,3,4,6, and 7 points and last week's loss to Tennessee was because of bad things happening late in the game. The blessing is Adam Vinatieri is injured. He had a great career but has likely kicked in his last game. Vinatieri missed 6 extra points and 8 FGs this season. That means he left 30 points on the field and 5 Indy losses came by a total of 20 points. If the Colys had just an average kicker they would be 9-3 right now. They will have one here. make the play in Indianapolis. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 47 m | Show |
The Ohio St. Buckeyes are the best team in NCAAF, despite what the polls say. They are electric on offense as well as tight on defense. The question is are they better than 2 TDs better than Wisconsin? If you look at the first game won by Ohio St. at home as a -14.5 point favorite 38-7 you would say yes. The line here is -16 on a neutral field, so it is saying Ohio St. would now be -20 at home. The line has been juiced public opinion and what happened in the first meeting. I like playing against very good teams that are off consecutive physically tough games. Ohio St. is off Penn St. and Michigan, and have been softened up a bit and have more bangs and bruises than previous games where starters were out early in the 2nd half. Remember, Wisconsin trailed just 10-7 at Ohio St. 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter until either they imploded or Ohio St. exploded. I think this is a 4 quarter game. An unbeaten team playing its 3rd straight game vs a .800 or better opponent is 3-9 ATS from game 8 out as well as 3-9 SU! Championship favorites from -14 to -21 that are unbeaten are 0-9 ATS since 1997: game type = CH and F and line = -21 and WP = 100.0 and season>1997SU:6-3-0 (-0.44, 66.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:0-9-0 (-16.06, 0.0%) avg line: -15.6Make the play on Wisconsin.
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
If Georgia didn't throw up a stinker vs South Carolina and came into this game 12-0 we would be looking at a much different line and prediction here by most. Everybody loves a high powered offense, and LSU has certainly been that and more. While the Georgia offense has been less than stellar of late, the LSU defense has allowed 37+ points to 4 teams. That in most cases does not typify a Championship team. They are going to have to score plenty to cover this game vs a Georgia defense that is the best they have seen. The closest thing to it was Auburn and the Bayou Bengals struggled to score just 23 points. Georgia allows just 10.4ppg so piling up the points in this one does not look to be the case by the LSU offense. Georgia can run the ball very well with a bevy of backs, not just Swift, and Fromm has 21 TDs to just 3 INTs on the season. A team in a Championship game that averages better than 47 points a game taking on a team allowing fewer than 21 a game are 3-5 SU to an average line of -12.6. LSU is generating 67% of the bets but the line has not moved. Make the play on Georgia. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
The Baylor Bears have had a great season at 11-1. They had this Oklahoma team on the ropes with a 25 point lead and blew it. Everything that could have gone wrong for Oklahoma did. First, it was the only game of the year that WR Ceedee Lamb missed. Lamb is a game-changer as he has caught TD passes in 9 of 11 games, with all 9 coming from outside the red-zone. Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 525-307 in that game, which would be indicative of a 17-20 point win on the road. Oklahoma fumbled 5 times in the game and lost 2 but the 3 that they recovered altered the drives. They punted 1 time in the hame so the only way the offense was stopped was by themselves. QB Jaylen Hurts has been here before, as have most of the OU players. This will be a lot of pressure for Baylor as none of these kids have played in a game of this magnitude before, and the moment could be too big for them. What most don't see is the strides the OU defense has made allowing fewer than 300 yards a game in their last 3. The Sooners are now 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a single-digit favorite and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Championship games as a favorite of fewer than 10 points, the only failed cover was by a single point. make the play on Oklahoma. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah -6.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
Utah certainly deserves to be in the playoff hunt. This is a well balanced very good offense, that also happens to have one of the best defenses in the country. This game is going to be played in the rain and wind, and Utah allows just 56 rushing yards a game, which will be crucial in this contest. Utah has also held all 12 opponents below their season average in total yards. Utah on average has held opponents to 170 fewer yards than their season average. If you look at the 8 common opponents these teams shared, Utah outscored these opponents by 25ppg and outgained them by well over 200 yards per game. Oregon was +16ppg and just +84 yards. Oregon is just 3-12 SU and ATS in their last 15 as a dog. Think there is a greater distance between these teams and Utah will not call off the dogs, as they look for style points. Make the play on Utah. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -114 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
Probably the hardest thing to conceive is that the Bears will be an underdog for just the 3rd time this season. That speaks volumes to me just how overrated this team is after an impressive record last year. They are off a pair of wins to weak teams and limped across the finish line in each one. Dallas was totally humiliated by Buffalo last week and lost to New England the week before in a rain game. Dallas maybe 6-6 but they have a scoring margin on the season of +6.2. That ranks 3rd in the NFC, less than a half-point from #2 Minnesota. I expect the Cowboys to put up a huge effort here in this one. Dallas is out-gaining opponents by 111 yards per game, while Chicago is being out-gained by 32 yards a game. That is 143 yards per game from the line of scrimmage which translates to about 10 points. Clearly, the Cowboys are the advantaged team here in this one. make the play on Dallas. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 2 m | Show |
The New England Patriots look as vulnerable as ever but when you look down this team is 10-1 on the season. The Brady & Belichick show keeps marching on. Only when the oddsmakers make them a prohibitive do they struggle to cover the spread. The Pats since 2000 are 61-57-1 ATS when they are favored by more than 7 points. When they are anything down from -7 or fewer, they are 137-75-8 ATS. That is nearly a 65% cover rate for 2 decades. What it says is when the Pats are in what is expected to be a competitive game, they get the money. The pats are out-gaining their opponents by about 100 yards a game to Houston's 15. Deshaun Watson has had no success vs New England with a 76 QB rating. Brady is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS vs Houston averaging 33ppg, and overall the Pats have won 8 straight. It's just too hard to buck the Pats when they have the numbers they do. Someday that will change, but not yet. Make the play on New England.
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12-01-19 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 38.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
This game fits a total situation that is 153-89-8 ATS. Make the play on the under. |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 58 m | Show |
This is a huge game for the AFC South. Each team comes in at 6-5 on the season. Last week the Titans got a lot of gifts and cashed in big in a 42-20 romp of Jacksonville. Derrick Henry scored 2 TDs in 16 seconds, and within 5 minutes of the 2nd half, Tennessee went from up 7-3 to up 28-3. The Colts have had 10 days to prepare for this one and are a much better team with Jacoby Brissett under center as he has thrown for 15 TDs and 4 INTs. Ryan Tannehill has certainly infused the offense for Tennessee, but his career-long road struggles spell the difference here. Tannehill is 10-20 SU on the road, and 12-18 ATS with his team generating just 18.5ppg. His QB rating sinks to 84.8, and he has 33 TDs to 27 INTs. Indianapolis has been a chamber of horrors for Tennessee as they have lost the last 12 meetings here when the Colts were favored. The average score has been 30-16, and the Colts have covered the last 9. The Colts have won the last 5 here as a favorite by a 198-61 combined margin, with no game closer than 24 points. Make the play on Indianapolis.
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12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens -6 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 122 h 29 m | Show |
This is perhaps the most interesting game in the NFL this year. This looks like a Super Bowl preview as things stand right now. It will be about the vaunted raven's running game vs the SF top-rated defense. The Ravens have become more than that. They are on pace to be the first NFL team to run and pass for over 200 yards per game. QB Lamar Jackson has become more than just a runner. The Baltimore defense that appeared to be leaking oil early in the season has become elite. They have allowed just 14.6ppg in their last 7 and the offense is generating 43ppg in the last 4. They are not feasting on cupcakes either. The last 5 games have seen them beat Seattle, Bew England, and the Rams by a combined score of 112-42. San Francisco has suffered some key injuries. They have wins vs Green Bay a team I believe is very over-rated as the packers despite being 8-3 are being out-gained by 40 yards a game, and are one of the worst NFL defenses in the league. They lost at home to Seattle, and the rest of their wins have been against much weaker teams. San Francisco fits a negative situation that plays against a team outscoring their opponents by 10 or more points per game, allowed 14 or fewer points last game: NFL0069: A and tA(margin)>=10 and po:points2013SU:27-34-0 (0.34, 44.3%) Teaser RecordsATS:17-43-1 (-2.52, 28.3%) avg line: -2.9 These teams have covered just 28.3% of all games in the last 61 instances. make the play on Baltimore.
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12-01-19 | Eagles v. Dolphins UNDER 45 | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 17 m | Show |
This game fits a total situation that is 46-6 ATS. The play is on the under. season>=2012 and HD and line>8 and total>=39 and total |
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11-29-19 | Washington State v. Washington -7 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 70 h 19 m | Show |
This week it is Washington. Wash St. 7.51 yds/play home, 6.09 on the road. (0-4), Just 25.5ppg on the road, last 4 trips to Washington out-scored 41-143. (1-9 SU/2-8 ATS last 10 in this series. Leach vs Peterson= no-contest. Wash St. can't defend anyone, too one-dimensional to beat Peterson. This is neither coach best team for sure, but Washington defends the pass well enough to pull away because Wash St. can't defend even the mediocre Wash. offense. Make the play on Washington.
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Virginia | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -117 | 66 h 20 m | Show |
The Virginia Tech Hokies have steadily improved all season. The defense has become elite and they are off shutouts in each of their last 2 games. Hokies defense allowed 29.6ppg through their first 7 and 9.5ppg in their last 4. The offense has also taken off scoring 35.4ppg in their last 7. Virginia has a pretty good defense but the offense has held this team back all season against good defensive teams. The defense has also been shaky over the last 4 games. Tech fits a 59-31 ATS situation here as well. Make the play on Virginia Tech. |
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 54 h 46 m | Show |
The NFL decided with the start of the 2006 season they would add a night game to the Thanksgiving Day slate. Since the onset the favorite has been 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in these games. Home dogs have certainly struggled on Thanksgiving at 10-21 ATS and division home dogs have not covered a game since 2003 at 0-6 ATS. Home favorites on Thanksgiving with same season revenge are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. When a game involves a home dog and a total of 43 or more the home dogs are 1-18 SU and 4-15 ATS, including 0-6 ATS to a line of +7 or more (watch line), failing to cover by 25.7ppg. Make the play on New Orleans. |
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss +2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 20-21 | Win | 105 | 52 h 33 m | Show |
The Egg Bowl will be played at Mississippi St. this year. The Bulldogs need a win to become bowl eligible and Ole Miss is certainly going to be fired up to stop them. If you like running, this is your game as both teams possess a lethal running attack. I think the difference is Ole Miss freshman QB, John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee went for 212 rushing yards vs LSU, and the Rebels pounded them for over 400 yards rushing. Plumlee has carried the ball 33 times for 389 yards in the last 2 games at 11.9 yards a carry. The public likes to align themselves with the home team in rivalry games and 70% are on Miss St. Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS here since 1980 as a dog. They certainly won't be intimidated by the atmosphere. Make the play on Ole Miss.
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
The Dallas Cowboys are 6-5 and for a team with the talent, this team has across the board that is pretty poor. They lost at New England last week in a windy and rainy affair. Dallas has been a fickle but consistent team on Thanksgiving. When they are posted as a -6.5 favorite or more they are 9-3 ATS if the line is anything less than that just 6-11 ATS. In fact, Thanksgiving home favorites of -6.5 or more are 15-5-1 ATS (13-3-1 ATS since 1994). Thanksgiving games or any Thursday games for that matter provide a decisive edge for the favorite on short rest as all Thursday favorites are 138-96-8 ATS. (26-13-1 ATS on Thanksgiving). This is the 3rd road game for the Bills in 4 weeks. The Bills have faced 1 team all season with a winning record and lost at home, they have not faced a winning team on the road this season. Simply put, I would rather have Prescott at home vs Allen on the road. (Allen 11 TDs/9 INTs on the road vs bad teams). Make the play on Dallas.
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11-28-19 | Bears -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 24 m | Show |
The Chicago Bears have moved to 5-6 and a win in Detroit on Thanksgiving would give this team new hopes for a playoff spot. The offense showed some signs of life-generating more than 300 yards for just the 2nd time this season. The nears played here and won last year 23-16, so it does not lack familiarity. The Lions are down to QB Jeff Driscoll and he has now surfaced on the injury report and is listed as probable with a hamstring issue. Driscoll has very subpar numbers and the Chicago defense is elite and I would not be surprised if the Bear's defense scores in this game. Detroit on Thanksgiving has been a tale of two completely different teams. When they have played as to a line from +1.5 or fewer points, pick, or favorite they are 4-0 ATS. When they have played as a dog od 2 or more points since 2004 they are: 1122 2003SU:0-11-0 (-17.18, 0.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:1-10-0 (-11.45, 9.1%)Thursday favorites (the better team) are 26-13-1 ATS in Thanksgiving, and all home dogs are 10-21 ATS, and division home dogs are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 overall on Thanksgiving. Make the play on Chicago.
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11-25-19 | Ravens -3 v. Rams | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 128 h 33 m | Show |
The Baltimore Ravens have that Super Bowl look to them right now. if they aren't the best team in the NFL right now, they are in the conversation. Baltimore has strung together 6 straight wins. The offense is lethal and what has solidified this team as a Super Bowl-caliber team has been the improving defense. The Ravens allowed 24.6ppg in their first 5 and 14.6ppg in their last 5. That is a 10 point per game improvement, while as scary as it sounds, the offense is getting better as well. The Rams had that look a year ago but simply has not resembled that team this season. Last year Todd Gurley was running over everyone, but this year he looks hurt. Rams have a long history of trouble with winning teams as they are 83-125-3 ATS vs a winning team in their last 211 games. The Ravens have just 4 losses since after the 1st week of November last year. (enter Lamar Jackson). No team, including New England has fewer. Make the play on Baltimore.
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show |
The Green Bay Packers will head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. This game has huge playoff implications, as the winner will have a leg up on a potential playoff bye. The Packers will be rested, but at the same time this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4, and the road has not been as good for Aaron Rodgers over his career as playing at Lambeau. Rodgers is just 20-25 SU in his last 45 road games. he is also just 8-17 SU as an underdog. The Packers are 8-2 but surprisingly have been out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 30 yards per game, while the Niners have out-gained opponents by 133 yards per contest. The Niners are allowing just 143 yards in the air per game, and Rodgers is likely to underperform in this one. this game looks closer than it should as a dig down into the stats shows a clear decisive edge to the Niners. The Packers are just 6-10 ATS in their last 16 off their bye vs .500 or better teams. Make the play on San Francisco. |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show |
I like a team coming off their bye week, especially as a favorite. there are a lot of strong situations for such teams and a couple that isn't so good. This one fits a plethora of strong situations for a team coming off a bye and favored. I'll include one that most will like: NFL0066: rest >= 10 and p:points >= 35 and o:WP < 60 and line >= -7 and WP >40 and FSU:29-0-0 (12.45, 100.0%) Teaser RecordsATS:28-0-1 (7.97, 100.0%) avg line: -4.5 Make the play on Tennessee.
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11-24-19 | Raiders -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
The NY Jets have put together a 2 game winning streak. they have proven that they can beat bad teams in the NY Giants and Washington Redskins. let's not forget this team has lost 5 games this season by 14 or more points. Sam Darnold has 11 TDs to 10 INTs so far, and his last 3 opponents have been terrible teams. Jon Gruden is doing a food job rebuilding this Oakland team and they are on a 3 game winning streak, and a playoff contender. QB Derek Carr is having a strong season with 15 Rds to 5 INTs and a passer rating of 105.2. His career numbers vs the Jets show 3-0 ATS a 121.6 passer rating with 9 TDs and 0 INTs. The Jets average just 248 yards per game and scored 6 vs Philly, 0 vs NE, and 15 vs Jacksonville, as well as just 18 vs Miami in a loss. Make the play on Oakland. |
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11-24-19 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 48 m | Show |
Division games are often lower scoring than other NFL games. The teams play at least twice a year so they know and have experienced the tendencies of their division rivals. the situation in this game has been a long term winner: division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points
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11-23-19 | Utah -22.5 v. Arizona | Top | 35-7 | Win | 100 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
It is Utah again for me. Sumlin has abused, failed to communicate with some seriously talented QB's. he has done it again with Tate. Noel Mazzone tried to turn him into a pocket passer - are you kidding me? yes, injuries played a role but what a gross misuse of a Heisman caliber QB. Now he doesn't know who to play - Gunnell or Tate. Gunnell has been better but he pulled him for Tate vs Oregon. He liked how he moved the ball but Arizona went 3 and out in 4 straight 2nd half drives with Tate. It won't matter against Utah - neither will move the ball. they are down 4 offensive linemen, 3 were down vs Oregon and a season-low 6 points 240 yards. It will be worse here. Utah needs style points and will win big.
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11-23-19 | SMU v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
I really loved Navy last week, but I did not play them because they were an overwhelming public favorite, and every pundit around lived them against Notre Dame. I have been doing this awhile and at least, in that case, my instincts got it right as Navy self-destructed vs Notre Dame fumbling 4 times leading to 4 Notre Dame scores. SMU is 9-1 on the season and the offense has been a powerhouse and has to cover for an abysmal defense that has allowed each of their last 2 opponents to score 50 or more points against them. A perspective on that is no team in NCAA Football with 6 or more wins and 1 loss has ever allowed 50+ points in 2 straight games, so for a supposedly elite team, it calls them into suspect. Moreover a team with 6+ wins and 1 loss that allowed 42 or more points in 2 consecutive games are 0-5 ATS. Navy is going to limit possessions and control the clock. SMU will once again be without their most dangerous receiver in Reggie Roberson, and the Naby pass defense, despite last week is strong. last week the public was all over Navy, and after getting scorched, they are piling on against Navy with 67% of the bets coming in on SMU. Despite that, the line movement is heading in the opposite direction. When you have 33% of the action driving the line against the masses, all the smart money is on navy this week, and the bad taste from last week affords the opportunity to buy in on Navy low. make the play on Navy.
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11-22-19 | Colorado State +7 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Wyoming is 6-4 on the season, but recent injuries have hit this team hard. They have lost a lot from an offense that wasn't very good, to begin with. QB Sean Chambers was lost with a knee injury. His replacement Tyler Vander Waal has dropped the passing yards per attempt from 7.6 to 5.7. That is significant, and Vander Waal has just 1 TD pass to 3 INTs. Where it hurts, even more, is in the running game. Chambers was the main cog rinning for 567 yards at 6.3 yards per carry and 10 TDs. Lost as well are running backs, Titus Swen and Trey Smith. The 2 combined for 111-564 at 5.2 per tote. The workload has been on Xazavian Valladay, but despite 869 yards, he has been the least effective at 4.8 per carry. he is also dealing with a knee issue. Colorado St. dealt with the loss of QB Collin Hill, but Patrick O'Brien has been equally effective. Colorado St. is 4-6 but winning the line of scrimmage as they average 69 more yards a game than their opponents, while despite the 6-4 record Wyoming is upside down generating -26 yards a game. Wyoming generally has a home-field advantage with the altitude, but Colorado St. is used to that playing at high altitude themselves. This one goes to the wire, and the points are big. Make the play on Colorado St. |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
It is hard to believe at 4-6 on the season the LA Chargers have control of their own playoff destiny with 2 games vs KC and 1 with Oakland. That being said, their season is on the line tonight. The Chargers were projected for 10 wins this season, and the 4-6 record points to a lot of value tonight. The Chargers have not lost any game this season by more than 7 points, and no team has scored more than 27 points on them in 10 games. What has killed this team is 5 turnovers in goal-to-goal situations. Expect a full dose of Melvin Gordon tonight. He is rounding into form and will be key vs a KC run defense ranked #31 in the league. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have recorded 9 sacks combined in the last 4 games. The Chargers spent the entire week at the Air Force Academy to get acclimated to the 7000 ft. altitude in Mexico City and the Chargers were favorites in their first 6 games, and are now playing their 5th straight as a dog. Each of the Chiefs last 8 games have all been decided by 7 points or fewer, so this is not last season. This line says KC would be favored by better than a TD at home, and neither teams has been better than a TD vs anyone for most of the season. The Chiefs and Mahomes have been the sexy pick by bettors and over 60% are backing them here driving even more value into the line. make the play on The LA Chargers. |
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11-17-19 | Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 146 h 25 m | Show |
betting against a Bill Belichick team is not a good idea. He is 244-178-11 ATS in his coaching career. Betting against him off a loss is even worse as his teams have responded off a loss by following at 71-44-3 ATS. If his team has fewer than 5 losses that become 54-26-2 ATS. I think my point has been made. I have made a lot of money taking NE in his era off a loss. Moreover, a road favorite with more than 10 days rest from +3 to -10 taking on an opponent that is less than .600 are 46-14 ATS in the last 60 instances (New England is 5-0 ATS in this spot) AF and rest>10 and season>=2002 and line=-10 and o:WP2002 and p:L and line>=-4 and playoffs=0SU:22-2-0 (13.54, 91.7%) Teaser RecordsATS:23-1-0 (13.17, 95.8%) Make the play on New England.
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11-17-19 | Texans v. Ravens -4 | Top | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 144 h 37 m | Show |
Lamar Jackson is a freak athlete, and each game he gets better and better and has become the most dangerous dual-threat QB perhaps in NFL history. Jackson has run for 702 yards already through 9 games, and barring injury will break Michael Vick's record of 1,039. The Ravens offense is getting better than their 33.3ppg average on the season and scarier still is the defense is starting to come around. The Ravens have allowed 16.5ppg in their last 4. They scored 37 on New England, a team that had better defensive marks than any team in NFL history. The Ravens are now 13-3 in his 16 NFL regular season starts. The Ravens are clock consumers at home where they average an NFL best 36:05 of possession limiting opponents to 23:55. Houston is 6-3 on the season and while their offense has been good all year the defense has been very ordinary. I think they are going to struggle on the road to slow down this emerging freight train. Make the play on Baltimore. |
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11-17-19 | Cowboys -3 v. Lions | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
I am once again hedging here as Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is still questionable with a hip injury. The line says the oddsmakers are saying he is playing. If dor some reason he does not this will go to -6.5 or -7. I like the line even with Stafford playing if he is out we get a grand slam! The Cowboys have the most talented roster in the league on both sides of the ball yet here they are at 5-4, and making the playoffs is still in question. Detroit is an average team that throws the ball a bit better than average, but with Stafford's health in question, if he plays may be injured enough to make them average. Dallas out-gains opponents by 114 yards per game and despite New England coming up next this won't be a look ahead, especially off a loss, and I think the alarm will have sounded now. If they want to make the playoffs this has to be a win. Dallas is 4-1 ATS this year vs teams that are .500 or less and 0-3 ATS vs winning ones. They win vs the .500 or less teams by 15ppg on average. Make the play on Dallas. |
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11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 51 | Top | 29-3 | Win | 100 | 143 h 40 m | Show |
This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under. |
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11-17-19 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 44 | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 39 m | Show |
This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under. |
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11-16-19 | UCLA v. Utah -21 | Top | 3-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
It appears that UCLA is surging after starting the season 1-5 as the Bruins have won 3 straight games. I'm not in that camp. Looking at their last 6 opponents all in the P-12 they have collectively allowed around 30ppg. Utah is on a completely different level defensively. They allow 246 yards a game on the season and just 12.2ppg. The offense is not too shabby either at 446 yards per game. Overall the Utes are out-gaining opponents by 200 yards a contest. This game will be played in altitude which is another advantage for the Utes. This game also fits a situation that is 87-34 ATS. Make the play on Utah. |