Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-23-22 | 76ers +5.5 v. Hornets | 101-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I understand that Philly is without the majority of their superstars, but I still see them being a better team than the Hornets. Charlotte has had a horrible start to the year and if Lamelo Ball can't get back on the court, then I don't see this season turning around. Ball is listed as questionable for this game, but I'm not worried about him if he returns. The Hornets will be extra cautious with him, as the other Charlotte players will have to continue to carry the load. |
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11-23-22 | Jets +1.5 v. Wild | 1-6 | Loss | -185 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jets have won three of their last four games and three of their last five road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring three or more goals in three of their last four games. They have also played well on special teams, converting 20 percent of their power play opportunities. The Wild have played well defensively this season, but they struggled in recent games, giving up nine goals in their last three games, and will have a hard time slowing down the Jets. |
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11-23-22 | Flames +1.5 v. Penguins | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins are looking to win on their home ice but the Flames look to extend their winning streak to three games and control this game on both ends of the ice. The Flames, who average 3.17 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Flames should also limit the Penguins' offense with Nikita Zadorov and MacKenzie Weegar creating turnovers at the blue line and limiting the Penguins from establishing an offensive zone presence while goaltender Jacob Markstrom makes plenty of big saves in the net. |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -10 | 105-115 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles of late, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven encounters. Also, each of the Suns’ last six victories over the Lakers has come by ten or more points. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their previous ten contests versus the Western Conference, while the Lakers haven’t covered in five consecutive outings on the road. |
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11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sixers are dealing with a ton of injuries and they are only scoring the 28th most points per game. They will continue to struggle in this one and the Nets will be able to keep this game close. Philadelphia won't play well without their stars, as the 76ers will continue to slide in the wrong direction. |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Notre Dame | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has been favored by double-digits in each game this season but it has yet to cover a spread, all while facing the 312th strongest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish should also win this game outright, but it will be important to Bowling Green what the final score is in this game. For Notre Dame, this is just another game, but playing the Fighting Irish will motivate the Falcons. Bowling Green likes to get up and down the court quickly, rating 55th in adjusted tempo, while Notre Dame is 333rd. With the fast-paced style of play, the Falcons should be able to limit the effectiveness of Irish big man Nate Laszewski at times. Take Bowling Green to cover. |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is the only coach in NFL history with a better outright record as a dog than as a favorite with the Cardinals, going 17-16-1 SU taking points and 11-14 outright laying them. McCoy is 3-0 ATS as a dog as a starting quarterback for Arizona – winning all three games outright. Murray is 3-1-1 ATS in his starts in this series, including 2-0-1 ATS as a dog. On the Niners side, Frisco is 8-1 ATS on Mondays in division games, but only 1-7- 1 ATS as of late in this series. |
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11-21-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -9.5 | 83-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is virtually unbackable away from home right now. The Warriors had lost all straight of their road games prior to Sunday’s win, but it took a ridiculous performance from Thompson and Curry to get the job done against a bad team. They are now having to play on the back-end of a back-to-back against a New Orleans squad that is expected to have its best player back on the court. This is not a good scheduling spot for Golden State, while New Orleans is rested and motivated coming into this matchup. The Pelicans are also the more balanced team, as they are good on both ends of the court. |
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11-21-22 | Louisville v. Arkansas -15 | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units The Cardinals were favored to win their first three games, but they lost all three games by one point. Their offense has been their biggest problem so far, with the team scoring less than 70 points per game while making less than 45 percent of their shots. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Razorbacks and they’re very careless with the ball, which will be a problem against the Razorbacks, who are averaging more than 12 steals per game. They are facing a defense that held its first three opponents under 60 points and will have a hard time scoring against them, so go with Arkansas to cover the spread. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs -5 v. Chargers | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Chiefs enter this fray knowing they are 14-3 SU in the last 17 games in this series. Meanwhile, KC is 10-3 ATS as division road chalk of 10 or fewer points, while LA is 3-9 ATS the last dozen games as a home dog. We’d love to hop on the arm of Justin Herbert as he looks to avenge a 27-24 loss at Arrowhead in Game Two this season, but the fact of the matter is both Herbert and the Chargers are struggling, and the Bolts are only 4-38 ATS as home dogs in games they lose outright. |
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11-20-22 | Warriors v. Rockets +10.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have not shown proper respect to weaker opponents, resulting in losses to the Hornets, Pistons, Magic, and Kings outright as a road favorite. It's hard to love the Rockets, but this will be a game in which their young players will give their best effort. Golden State should win its first road game of the year this season, but they cannot be trusted to cover as a double-digit road favorite. |
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11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards -5.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These are two teams heading in opposite directions right now. The Hornets are playing terrible basketball, losers of 1o of their last 11 games, and their defense has been a problem. Also, it seems as if LaMelo Ball is banged up again and is questionable for Sunday's game. The Wizards quietly have a pretty balanced solid team that has the ability to hurt you inside and outside, and has improved their defensive capabilities, ranking 8th in the league in points allowed. Plus, the Hornets are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. |
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11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points. |
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11-20-22 | Browns v. Bills -7.5 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bills are 31-11 SU and 32-10 ATS when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, and they are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 8 points when coming off a home loss. In addition, NFL non-division home favorites who scored 30-plus points and lost as a favorite are 14-5 ATS the following game since 1980. For what it’s worth, despite hitting a recent two-game speed bump, Buffalo is winning the total yards on an average of +104 yards per contest this season. It’s closest pursuer, San Francisco, is 25 YPG lighter than the Bills. With QB Josh Allen’s MVP chances having taken a major hit, look for a bounce back. |
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11-20-22 | Bears +3 v. Falcons | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today.It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today. |
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11-19-22 | Utah v. Oregon +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
Today is a huge double revenger for the Ducks, who lost last season 38-7 at Utah and then 38-10 in the Pac-12 title game two weeks later. The fact that Oregon is 23-1 outright in its last 24 home games, and is coming off a home loss. Consider that the Ducks are 5-0 ATS at home with revenge when coming off a home loss since 1996. The Utes are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of less than 10 points and it’s always difficult laying points into this team, but it’s justified in this contest. Remember that all 6 of the Utes’ losses over the last two seasons have occurred away from Salt Lake City. Their defense has looked especially vulnerable in several games this season, and the Quack Attack is coming off a 592-yard effort in the loss to Washington last week. |
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11-19-22 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | 113-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic are dealing with injuries as scoring leader Paolo Banchero is likely out again with an ankle injury. Gary Harris made his season debut but likely won’t play big minutes in the second game of a back-to-back. The Pacers have fared well when playing their second game in as many nights, going 2-0 and covered in each win. Furthermore, the Magic continue to stumble, winning just four out of their last ten games. The Pacers have been stellar, logging a victory in seven out of their last nine clashes after beating Houston by eight points on Friday. The Pacers have been as reliable as it gets in the NBA, miraculously covering the spread in nine consecutive games. |
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11-19-22 | Iowa +2.5 v. Minnesota | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gophers polished off the tarnish of a 3-game losing streak to become Golden again thanks to three straight wins. Not surprisingly their defense is allowing an average of 250 YPG during the run of victories. History lines up against Minnesota though, as only once in the last 15 meetings have they been the betting favorite and in the series Iowa has bullied them, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Iowa beat Wisconsin last week with one of their most explosive offensive days this season…146 yards. Iowa is a DIA DIA in this one, too (Dominating Dogs in Action, Doing it Again). |
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11-19-22 | Illinois +18 v. Michigan | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 72 h 31 m | Show |
Big-10 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Good numbers for the visitors, though, as they’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit conference road dogs this season, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight run-ins with undefeated conference foes. Michigan counters with a superb 11-1 ATS mark as Big Ten home chalk of less than 20 points, but the Maize-and Blue can’t be trusted to cash a ticket in their final home game, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight such affairs. And let’s face it, Harbaugh will work from a strictly “vanilla” playbook today to avoid tipping off Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Meanwhile, with two rough defenses doing battle today – and Ohio State on deck for Michigan – points could be hard to come by. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .700 > foe is 16-2-2 ATS since 1980. |
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11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Unit We realize TCU is 12-1 ATS in LRGs (Last Road Games), but they weren’t undefeated then and carrying the weight of being in the position they are in this year. Meanwhile, some of the numbers look very good when studying Baylor: 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, 7-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 10 points in previous game, and 3-0 ATS with double conference revenge (Bears lost 30-28 as 7.5-point favorites at TCU last season, one of only two defeats they were dealt in 2021). Meanwhile, back to the Horned Frogs, whose numbers are less-shiny: 1-6 ATS versus double conference revenge and 2-12 ATS after playing Texas. It is extremely strange to imagine, but the Frogs can possibly afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff – but why take the chance? One thing we know for sure is Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a dog with conference revenge versus a foe coming off a SUATS win, including 8-0 ATS at home |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut +10.5 v. Army | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A year ago, the spot on this one would have been around the 17-pt margin, or similar. Fact is that the Cadets are once again among the leaders in overland production (#2 behind only Air Force), but among the dregs, defensively, ranking just 71st, with that coming against such powers as Villanova, GeorgiaSt, Colgate, & Monroe, with mighty UMass on the horizon. Their current 3-0 SU/ATS run has lowered the spot on this, much to the delight of their backers. Not only is UConn bowl eligible, but is also a weekly profit producer, covering its last 7 games, the latest in its upset of Liberty, resulting in a +17 pt cover. |
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11-18-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks won their first matchup with the Sixers this season, a two-point win in Philadelphia in October. The Sixers had Harden in that matchup while the Bucks played without Middleton and Connaughton. They should have Connaughton back for this matchup even while Middleton remains out. Lopez size and length can give Embiid problems and that showed through in the first matchup as Embiid was held to just 15 points. The Sixers have been off since Sunday so expect them to be rusty to start in this one. With Antetokoumpo back to full strength, he provides additional support in the paint against Embiid. And, not that many teams do, but the Sixers don't have anyone that can match up effectively with the Greek Freak. |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in this series when both teams are coming off a win. On the flip side, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in games in which they were an underdog in their last game and their opponent was favored in its last contest. The emergence of Packers rookie WR Christian Watson may be just what the doctor ordered as he scored three touchdowns to go with 8 receptions and 107 yards in last week’s stirring overtime win against Dallas. With QB Aaron Rodgers 5-1 SUATS in his last six games following a SU underdog win. To clinch is, Green Bay is 7-0 SUATS in their last seven Thursday games, and Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS in their last four appearances on Thursdays. |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's -9.5 | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see St. John's being the better team on both ends of the court. They are currently scoring the 23rd most points per game and they have the 14th-highest team shooting percentage in the country. Nebraska won't be able to consistently stop them, as they will slowly pull away. Nebraska has had a great start to the season, but they aren't as talented as this St. John's team. |
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11-16-22 | Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe head coach Thomas Hammock is winding up his 4th season with the Huskies. After last year’s 9-5 finish, NIU – who ranked No. 8 nationally in Returning Player Production and welcomed 18 starters back – was expecting more of the same in 2022. After ten games, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU. Consider that Miami Ohio is 8-0 ATS coming off a SU loss as a dog, and 6-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe off a win. You should also know Northern Illinois is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in the last eight get-togethers with Miami, and 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win. |
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11-14-22 | Butler v. Penn State -5.5 | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Bulldogs played well defensively in their first game, they were facing an overmatched team and will have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Nittany Lions. The Bulldogs also played well offensively in their first game, but they didn’t shoot the ball well, especially from three-point range where they made less than 20 percent of their shots. They also struggled from the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They rebounded the ball well and will get extra scoring opportunities that will help them keep the score close. They were very careless with the ball and they’re facing a defense that has done a good job forcing turnovers, which will lead to easy scoring opportunities for them. With the Nittany Lions holding their first two opponents under 70 points per game, the Bulldogs will have a hard time keeping up, so go with Penn State to cover the spread. |
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11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs -5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers look to pull out of their funk against an opponent experiencing a more pronounced dip. Minnesota's losing streak equals Cleveland at three games, but the Timberwolves have dropped six of their last seven with Friday's 114-103 defeat against Memphis. Each of the last three Minnesota losses have been by double-digit-point margins, and none of the six in this slide have been any closer than nine points. A 46-33 Grizzlies rebounding advantage turned into a 32-9 edge in second-chance points Friday. Minnesota also yielded a 62-46 disparity for points in the paint. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys -4 v. Packers | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cowboys bring with them a league-best 33 sacks in eight games led by game-wrecker Micah Parsons. Dallas is rested following its bye week. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games with four of those victories achieved when back up quarterback Cooper Rush was under center. Mike McCarthy has had this matchup circled from the start in his return to Green Bay having been the Packers’ head coach for 13 seasons. Dak Prescott is back in healthy form. The Packers won’t have injured Rashan Gary, their best pass rusher. Despite having Kenny Clark at nose tackle, the Packers’ disappointing run defense ranks 26th. Green Bay’s special teams still remain bad, too. There is a bigger gap between these two teams than the point spread indicates |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 5 Units Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos +3 v. Titans | 10-17 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Mike Vrabel’s supermen have out-yarded just one foe this year while losing the stats an average -86 net YPG. For what it’s worth, only Houston and Pittsburgh are worse, and they own a collective record of 3-12-1 this season. Making matters worse for the Nashville cats, the well-rested Broncos are 5-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week, as well as 7-1 ATS in this series. In addition, Denver sports a 7-1 ATS mark in this series, including 5-0 ATS in games in which it has a losing record. With the Titans 2-6 ATS at home coming off back-to-back road games, we’re all over Denver here. |
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11-13-22 | Thunder +5.5 v. Knicks | 145-135 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is coming off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season, as eight players scored in double figures in its blowout win over Toronto. The Thunder are going to bring that confidence into this game, and they have already put together a four-game winning streak once this year. They also have one of the most dynamic point guards in the NBA leading the way, so they have multiple ways to win games. New York has not met Vegas expectations so far, covering the spread just twice in its last nine games. The Knicks are also 1-6 in their last seven home games against Oklahoma City. |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Pete Carroll’s crew enters on a 4-0 SUATS win skein, winning three of the games outright as underdogs. And speaking of dogs, Seattle QB Geno Smith is 12-3 ATS in his last fifteen games when taking points in this league, including 7-0 ATS versus .444 or greater foes. On the other side of the fi eld, it should be noted that Brady is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral fields, but only 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS versus NFC West foes with the Bucs. In wrapping things up, it should also be noted that NFL teams with the better record are 19-8-1 SU and 16-12 ATS in Euro games. To clinch is, Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 7-2 ATS as a dog with the Seahawks when riding a three-game-plus win skein, including 7-0 ATS when taking either 2 or 3 points. |
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11-12-22 | Rockets +10.5 v. Pelicans | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite their record, the Rockets have played extremely hard for Silas both last year and to start this season. That is indicated in key statistical areas like rebounding and personal fouls, due to their aggression. Houston is 7-5 ATS this season despite sitting at just 2-10. They will be tested here by another young, aggressive team in the Pelicans. The Pelicans have shown their youth this season through their inconsistency. While they sit at 6-6 overall, they are just 5-7 ATS. After starting the season with two double-digit wins, the Pelicans have only one win by over 10 points since that time. The Rockets, meanwhile, have only lost three of their ten losses by more than 10 points. |
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11-12-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. 76ers | 109-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Atlanta is off to its best start (8-4) since the 2016-17 season, Philadelphia sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 5-7 record. The underachieving Sixers were hoping to build on Monday's encouraging 100-88 win over the Phoenix Suns, but instead turned in a dismal effort versus Atlanta. Philadelphia shot 38.6 percent from the field in the loss, including 6 of 30 (20 percent) from 3-point range. The Sixers have struggled to find a rhythm without star James Harden, who missed the last three games and will be out for approximately one month with a right foot tendon strain. |
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11-12-22 | TCU +7 v. Texas | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Frogs are now at No. 4 in the nation, reaching 9-0 for the first time since 2010, a 13-0 season that ended with a Rose Bowl victory and No. 2 national ranking. To be honest, we’ve had these Frogs on our fade list often this season and have been eating crow trying to explain their uncanny ability to overcome second-half deficits during this campaign in four of their wins. However, to seal the deal, consider that 9-0 or greater underdogs are 11-2-1 ATS during the regular season when not coming off an ATS win of more than 11 points, including 6-0 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. |
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11-12-22 | Georgia -16 v. Mississippi State | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units MSU ranks 128th in rushing, averaging 80.7 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Their dink and dunk passing attack averages just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and they haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their three losses. So do we think Georgia is on upset alert? Absolutely not. And if not, do we think Mississippi State tops that 17-point mark? Maybe if there’s a letdown. But Georgia doesn’t need to score much to cover even in that event. Mississippi State is vulnerable to the run, which Georgia will pound at, leading to timely downfield passing on occasion. Georgia has been held under 30 points just twice, further lending confidence to this spread. |
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11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -107 | 69 h 26 m | Show |
ACC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Louisville has quietly stitched together a decent season after a terrible start and may be saving Scott Satterfi eld’s job. Satterfi is a solid 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against teams coming off a spread loss of 19 or more points. UL is 4-0 SUATS in their last four. To tap it off playing against any CFB home favorite of more than 4 points from Game Nine out coming off its first loss of the year as a favorite of 4 or more points if they are off a DD ATS loss and are facing a foe who allows 20.1 or fewer PPG is 11-0 ATS since 1982. |
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11-12-22 | Alabama -11.5 v. Ole Miss | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Saban is 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2011 versus foes with a better record, including 5-1 ATS during the regular season, and don’t forget about the Saban’s 27-2 SU career mark in games against former assistants. So how is it the 2-loss Tide is installed as a double-digit favorite in this contest? For the answer, consider that playing on any AP Preseason No. 1 college team as a favorite off a SU favorite loss in their previous game is g 29-15 ATS mark (66%) in these games since 1980. Put them up against quality opposition (greater than .600) and they shoot up to 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS in this role. Better yet, let these Preseason No. 1 squads enter this same game with a .900 or fewer win percentage on the season, they ratchet up to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS. |
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11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 49 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Arkansas is 13-6 SUATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss to a conference foe, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 8 points. Also, Sam Pittman is 19-9-1 ATS overall in his career with the Hogs, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points. In addition, you need to realize that LSU is a horrendous 2-7 ATS as a road favorite of less than 15 points while coming off back-to-back home games. Also, road favorites who upset Alabama the previous week are also just 2-7 ATS in the following game since 1980 when coming off three consecutive wins, including 0-5 ATS when they own a win percentage of greater than .750 on the season. Sure, Jayden Daniels has improved greatly, as has the Tiger defense, but Pittman’s crew will be up to the challenge. Finally, Arkansas is 5-0 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss in this series. |
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11-11-22 | Cavs +2.5 v. Warriors | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is having trouble slowing anyone down on the defensive end, which does not bode well against a Cleveland offense that is in the top 10 in the NBA. The Cavaliers have completely changed their trajectory as a franchise by adding Mitchell, and they have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games. Golden State has been vastly overvalued, covering once in its last six games. I want no part of the Warriors right now, while Cleveland is an undervalued team that I am happy to back. |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pirates are gaining tons of respect from Vegas these days, and rightfully so. They are 7-2 ITS, winning the stats by an average +69 net YPG, and they bring a 10-4 ATS road dog log into this contest under head coach Mike Houston, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off a loss. At 6-3 / 3-2, East Carolina trails the Bearcats by a full game on both sides of the ledger, but they arrive with momentum from a 3-game win streak, including last week’s hard-fought 27-24 decision over BYU at Provo. Cincy head coach Luke Fickell is likely freaking out, riding a current 0-4-1 ATS streak entering this contest. |
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11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga -11 | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Zags have the advantage of more continuity than the Spartans in this early-season matchup between two of college basketball's top programs. The Spartans will have difficulty containing the Zags highly potent offense even in this game playing in the unusual confines of the USS Abraham Lincoln. The first half against North Florida gave a good indication of how dangerous Gonzaga's offense can be, as the Bulldogs shot 67% from the field overall. Overall, the Zags had 66 points in the paint and Timme should dominate the interior in this matchup as well. Typically, MSU gradually gets better as the year goes along. This is a tough matchup for them in the early going. |
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11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls are 5-3 with LaVine in the lineup and 4-1 at home with him available. The Pelicans played like a team that just wants to head home in their last game and will have to find a way to ratchet up their intensity in this game as well. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are just 4-6 ATS this year thus far while the Bulls are a more formidable 7-4-1 ATS this season. |
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers +5.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Denver Nuggets have been mediocre on the road this season where they are only 2-3. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home court where they are 3-0 in their last three clashes including wins against good foes in the Heat and Pelicans within the last week. |
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11-09-22 | Mavs v. Magic +7.5 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mavericks have not been good against the spread this season. They are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games overall, with the 1 being the push versus Orlando. Orlando, meanwhile, has been excellent against the spread, especially at home, where they are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games. They have played opponents tough, but they just haven't been able to convert them to Ws. Also, the Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Orlando. |
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11-08-22 | Rider +13.5 v. Providence | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Handicapping a game early in the season is a completely different process than later in the season. Returning experience is much more important in November, as cohesiveness is a huge part of a basketball game. Rider has plenty of that coming into the year, as four of its five starters are back from last year’s team. The Broncs were on fire down the stretch, making a run to the MAAC Tournament semifinals for the first time in a decade. They covered the spread in 13 of their last 18 games, including seven of their final nine road games. Providence is replacing all five of its starters from last year, so Rider is the obvious choice as a large underdog. |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Spurs | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units The Nuggets have looked strong in their last couple of outings and very good so far this season. I expect them to extend their win streak to three and their series against the Spurs to 2-0. In their matchup on Saturday, the Nuggets were sinking a lot of their shots and giving themselves more scoring opportunities by dominating the boards. I expect the Nuggets to do the same on the road Monday. Hyland had a strong outing coming off the bench, scoring 24 points on the night with 17 points and five 2-pointers coming in the second half to help lift the lead for Denver. Jokic has always been a solid player for the Nuggets and has shown his dominance all over the court showing his ability to pull down boards while attacking the basket and shooting points. Based on the last outing and the dominant defensive and offensive outings, take the Nuggets. |
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11-07-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bulls | 97-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Toronto plays at a slow, but efficient pace, Chicago tends to play a bit faster. Therefore, it will be interesting to see who controls the tempo of the game. I believe Toronto can cover the spread at the least, and Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 6-1 in their last seven. Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-6 ATS playing on zero days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their previous eleven contests while playing at home. |
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11-07-22 | George Mason v. Auburn -9.5 | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units George Mason is undoubtedly improved from last year and has upset some high-quality teams in the past but not teams that play at this fast of a pace. This game will be a true test of English's self-professed commitment to utilize his bench to save his starters. Auburn has more depth, much more size and has already shown that they will once again be among the country's top teams in forcing turnovers after giving even teams with pro players fits. Auburn, under Pearl, isn't in a position to rebuild but simply retool. George Mason will be a better team later in the season but it will take them time to get the new pieces to earn English's trust. This one should be a one-sided Auburn affair. |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won three straight games by eight or fewer points, outlasting the lowly Houston Rockets twice in the process. Hereof, I’m expecting to see another close battle when the Jazz come to town. Utah just found a way to drop 130 points on the Lakers, and the Jazz should have enough firepower to deal with the Clippers’ D. I’ve mentioned Utah’s selfless approach, so give me the visitors and points. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and 7-3 ATS in its last ten encounters with the Western Conference. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests overall, though they’ve covered in five straight home games against the Jazz. |
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11-06-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sean McVay has done his best work on the NFL road where he is 10-5 ATS as a dog, including 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS when taking more than 2 points. In addition, he stands 10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS in skirmishes against the NFC South, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog. And lest we forget, defending Super Bowl champions who find themselves taking points with a losing record check in at 18-7-2 ATS since 1980. Toss in the Rams’ 8-1 ATS record in this series, and their 4-0 ATS mark versus foes coming off a Thursday home game. |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Smith actually enters this fray sporting a 107.2 QB Rating (3rd best in the league), while Murray’s woes continue with an 85.3 QB Rating (20th overall). Because of it, the Seahawks are taking minimal points in this game as opposed to the touchdown they were scheduled to receive prior to the start of the season. One of the reasons is the Seahawks are 3-0 SUATS the last three games. In those contests they allowed an average 256 YPG, a quantum leap over the 410 YPG they surrendered over the course of their fi rst fi ve games of the season. We realize Pete Carroll’s troops will be on their way to London after this contest but knowing that Arizona is 1-7 ATS at home with division revenge, 1-7 ATS as home favorites of 5 or fewer points, and 2-7 ATS in the first of three straight division contests, we can only look one way in this fray. Take the points. |
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11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves -7.5 | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Minnesota has high expectations this season and need a win. After losing three straight games, I expect the Timberwolves to see red and be ready to dominant the young Rockets. The Timberwolves will be playing for the second night in a row, but they did not have to worry about travel. Houston is 0-6 straight up on the road this season with five of the losses coming by at least eight points or more. I have to back Minnesota here against a Houston team that still has a lot to learn about road life in the NBA, and how to win. |
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11-05-22 | BYU v. Boise State -8 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Things have surely changed in Boiseland, with the home team moving to the fore, which is in direct opposition to the former norm in games involving the Broncos, which saw the visitor as the constant play, rewarding the "smart money" movers. Check the visitor with ATS logs of 8-4 in '15, 9-4 in '16, 10-3 in '17, & 9-3 in '21, regardless of the spread. This season, however the host in Boise games stands at 5-1-1 ATS. Not only that, but note Boise at a 174-56 pt edge in its last 5 home games, while ranking 2nd in total "O". Cougars are on runs of 0-7 & 3-13 ATS of late. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -7.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tennessee defeated two other undefeated teams this season and they’ll look to complete a three-game SUATS hat trick here. Unfortunately, they are 0-5 SUATS versus 7-0 or greater opponents. Granted, the Vols lead the SEC in turnover margin (+8) and bring a 5-1 ATS mark into this battle royale as conference road dogs of 10 or less points, but as we’ve seen time and again in games of this magnitude, defense rules. That’s where Georgia brings the better of it, by 10 points and 131 YPG. Meanwhile, the Dawgs raced out to a 28-3 lead before surviving a second-half scare in last week’s 42-20 win over Florida. They are 15-0 SU after ‘Cocktail Parties’, including 8-0 SU and 7-0 ATS when favored by fewer than 20 points. As expected, the Dawgs own an exceptionally glossy stats dossier: No. 1 in the land in Red Zone Offense and No. 2 in Red Zone Defense (think about that), as well as No. 3 in Pass Defense Efficiency, No. 4 in Time of Possession (Vols are No. 124) and Overall Defense (Vols are No. 82). They are also allowing less than a point per game in the first quarter and Kirby Smart is 36-7 SU and 30-13 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 20 points, including 8-0 SU versus undefeated opposition. |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 80 h 36 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units We will find out if the maligned OU defense will continue their Cyclones form or revert to the team that was strafed for 41, 55, 49 and 42 points prior to visiting Ames, Iowa last weekend. If the Sooners can’t stop Baylor frosh RB Richard Reese, who despite his 5’9” stature, has 12 TDs and 791 ground yards, the game will be a Bear market. Oklahoma is a depressing 0-5 ATS at home versus a team coming off consecutive SUATS wins. To cap it off, Baylor is 20-1 ATS as a conference dog versus an opponent coming off a SUATS win. |
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11-05-22 | Iowa +5 v. Purdue | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 77 h 30 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Boilermaker head coach Jeff Brohm has carved out a ‘good dog, bad favorite’ personality and we’re not about to go against that today, not after Purdue upset the Hawkeyes as 11-point dogs at Iowa last season, meaning a major payback is in order today. With the Boilers now a lousy 1-4 ATS at home in this series, and HC of Iowa going 24-14 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS when taking single digits and coming off a SUATS win. To seal the deal, Iowa is 12-5 ATS as a dog with revenge when coming off a SUATS win under head coach Kirk Ferentz, including 8-1 ATS when not coming off a spread win of 13 or more points. |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon State snapped a lengthy drought when the Beavers entered the college football rankings this week for the first time since 2013. Currently out of the rankings is 6-2 Washington, fighting through a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS slump. Washington is 0-4 ATS with rest, 0-3 ATS on Weekdays the last two years, and 3-12 ATS off 4+ ATS losses. Oregon State is 15-4 ATS in this series, including 11-2 ATS with revenge, and 7-0 ATS off a home win of 21 or more points. Even better, coach Smith chips in with a solid 8-2 ATS record as a conference road dog with revenge |
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11-04-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Mavs | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have covered the spread in five of their last six games, including four of their last five road games. They have also won nine of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents. Doncic is going to put up big numbers, but Toronto’s balance and defense will be too much to handle in the end. |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans -3 v. Lakers | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Anthony Davis sits out Wednesday’s game, the Pelicans will dominate in the paint. New Orleans ranks seventh in the league in offensive rebounds (12.5 per 100 possessions) and third in assists (27.8), so I’m expecting the Pelicans to control the game and cover a 3.5-point spread. Without Davis, the Lakers’ frontcourt is thin and will struggle to contain Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas. If Davis suits up, we should see a tight battle for all 48 minutes. Last season, the Pels went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Lakers. New Orleans is 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this time around, and the Pelicans have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their previous six showings as favorites away from home. |
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10-31-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Clippers | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers. The NBA pick for this game is the LA Clippers. The Rockets struggled to start the season 1-5 but are 4-2 ATS. Expect the trend to spill over in this contest as they fall to the Clippers but will cover the nut in the process. LA has failed to cover the number in each of its last four. LA has a strong defense which is sixth in points allowed, but the Clippers are next to last or 29th in scoring at 102.6 points per game. |
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10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bengals have won two straight and four of the last five, while allowing an average of 17.5 points per game in the four victories and allowing just 19 points in the one loss. Cleveland has struggled the last four weeks, losing each of the four and the Browns' defense has been its weak spot. During Cleveland’s current four-game losing streak, the Browns are allowing an average of 28.5 points per game. Joe Burrow is averaging 299.6 yards per game passing with 15 touchdowns. Cleveland is tough on the ground with Nick Chubb but quarterback Jacoby Brissett has just six touchdowns and has thrown five interceptions, which has made Cleveland too one-dimensional with its running game. |
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10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 76ers haven't been as impressive to start this season. They are now (3-4), as they have continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the 19th-highest adjusted defensive rating in the NBA. They are also allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the floor, which is the 14th-highest percentage allowed. The Wizards are currently shooting better than anyone in the league, as they have the highest shooting percentage from the floor. |
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10-30-22 | Packers +11 v. Bills | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rodgers is 5-3 SUATS in his NFL career when the Packers are coming off three straight losses, including 3-2 SU and 4-1 SUATS in games in which Green Bay is not favored. We also know Rodgers is 40-15 SU and 33-21-1 ATS in his career during October, including 8-1 ATS as a dog of more than 2 points. He is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in games with a losing record when facing .750 or greater opponents. Rodgers is also 22-34-1 SU and 32-23-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, with the 8.5-points he took at Seattle in the 2019 playoffs a benchmark high. On the flip side, his counterpart Josh Allen has faced the Packers once in his NFL career, a 22-0 loss at Lambeau Field in 2018. However, the Bills own the league’s No. 1-ranked offense and defense, making it as tough a one-two combo as there is the NFL these days. However, with Rodgers 7-0 SUATS versus rested foes coming off a SUATS win, and 10-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career with a win percentage of less than .666 when facing a foe with a win percentage of greater than .750, we’ll go with the pack. To finish it off consider that playing on any NFL Sunday night non-division dog of more than 8 points versus a foe coming off a SUATS win is 18-2 ATS since 1980. |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons +7.5 | 114-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good scheduling spot for Detroit, as it has had several days off and is playing at home. Golden State is on the backend of a road back-to-back, making this a difficult situation for the Warriors to put together a complete performance. Some of their stars are starting to age, which makes the second game of a back-to-back even tougher. They have not been good enough defensively to be worth wagering on as a large favorite in this spot. |
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10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 5 Units Las Vegas has cashed in each of the games, winning two of them on the scoreboard. Like Arizona, they are still on the outside looking in at the current NFL playoff picture. Unfortunately, they’ve struggled against foes coming off a Thursday game going just 4-10-1 ATS. And they’ve also wriggled in this series with a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS mark the last ten gatherings. The Saints have won the stats in 5 of their seven games this season, including each of their last three games. As a result, they bring the better offense and the better defense into this fray. They are also 11-4 SU at home when playing off a SU previous home loss. Finally, consider that NFL playoff teams the previous year are 6-22 SU and 7-20-1 ATS away in Game Seven when coming off consecutive ATS wins if not favored by 3 or more points, including 2-15 ATS if the Over/Under total in this game is greater than 40 points. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +4 v. Vikings | 26-34 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First year coaches playing at home coming off a Bye week have struggled getting their team’s full attention, going just 6-10 SU and 4-10-2 ATS in this role since 2017, including 0-4 ATS behind .600 or greater teams. Making matters worse, the Vikes are 3-8 ATS with rest coming off a SUATS win. When the Cardinals beat New Orleans at home last week, it snapped an 8-game home losing skid back to when they topped Houston on October 24, a year ago. They improved to 9-2 in their last eleven games with WR DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. With Zona head coach Kliff Kingsbury in his best role as a road dog going 15-5-1 ATS, including 7-1 ATS versus foes coming off a win, the points become the play today. |
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10-29-22 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 83 h 5 m | Show |
Upset of the Day Rating: 4 Units Aggies have won and covered the last three games of this series, but they have gone 9 consecutive FBS games scoring 25 or fewer points – second-longest current streak in the FBS. Things are in crisis mode in College Station, as their fans are not used to seeing three consecutive defeats. Their saving grace is the fact they actually outgained their first FBS foe this season (they’re 1-5 ITS) in last week’s loss to South Carolina. Fisher lost three games in a row once in his career, (in 2011) but won the next game 41-16 at home against Duke. We call for the upset today. To cap it off, Jimbo Fisher is 14-3 SU at home off consecutive losses, including 2-0 SUATS as a dog. |
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10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units TCU has been living on the razor’s edge lately, and that doesn’t bode well for the Frogs today as they enter one of college football’s true house of horrors: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia. Neither does the Frogs’ 0-4 ATS record away with conference revenge and their 1-7 ATS failure before playing Texas Tech. The Mountaineers fare much better, cashing six straight series tickets over the Frogs, and going 10-5 ATS as home dogs versus unbeaten foes, including 3-0 SUATS the last three games and 3-0 ATS with a losing record. Consider that WVU head coach Neal Brown is 6-1 ATS in games versus undefeated foes in which they allow fewer than 30 PPG, including 4-0 SUATS when his team sports a losing record. |
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10-29-22 | Notre Dame +2.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 31 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Notre Dame has been favored in the last eight matchups in this series since 2003 and even covered when a 33-point favorite in 2020. They are 3-1 ATS in the last four, 4-1 ATS away vs foes .800 or better, and a sturdy 9-3 ATS in ACC road games… PLUS a whopping 5-0 SUATS in the last five ACC battles. Meanwhile the state of the Orangemen must be called into doubt after the Clemson crusher, plus the Dome hasn’t always been a warm home to the football program. SU is a horrible 0-4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or fewer points when coming off a conference contest. Finally, ND is 17-6 ATS as a dog versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when the Irish are coming off a win of 4 or more points. |
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10-26-22 | Magic v. Cavs -8.5 | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is trying to cobble together a team that is playing a lot of young guys in an effort to find a cohesive group to build around going forward but it’s safe to say that they aren’t expecting to contend. Cleveland has that young nucleus and made the big move to acquire Mitchell from Utah before the season started to give them a premiere scoring option in crunch time. The Cavaliers have a good group of pieces around him and will only get better once Garland is back to full speed after his eye injury. Cleveland has won two straight and seeing how Orlando has yet to get in the win column this season, you have to fade them accordingly. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8.5 | 33-14 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bears' offense has been terrible this season as they have struggled with an inexperienced offensive line and a young receiver group. Chicago has the 31st-ranked scoring offense in the NFL thus far this season. They are the #2 ranked rushing offense but are dead last in passing offense. In the red zone, the Bears are equally inept, ranking 28th in the league in red zone offensive efficiency. The Patriots' defense seems to be hitting its stride as they once again shut down an opponent. New England held the Browns #1 rushing attack to just 70 yards on the day. Overall, New England gave up 328 yards of total offense and had two interceptions and two fumble recoveries on the day. The Patriots had four sacks on the day and a whopping nine quarterback hits. They also had two tackles for loss in their second straight win. |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
Inter-conference Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units After starting 3-0 SUATS this season behind the lefty, the Fish ride a 0-3 SUATS skid entering this contest. The Dolphins have plummeted from being ranked fi rst in points per drive with Tagovailoa, to 29th without him. Tua, though, brings a lofty 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS career mark into this battle, including 10-4 SUATS at home. Nonetheless, concussions take center stage in this contest with new rookie QB Kenny Pickett currently in concussion protocol. Steelers’ backup QB Mitchell Trubisky completed nine of 12 passes for 144 yards and a TD in relief of Pickett who left last week’s game woozy with a concussion. Another side bar issue today will be the return of former Miami head coach and current Pittsburgh defensive assistant Brian Flores, who’s has had run-ins with Fish owner Stephen Ross over reported ‘tanking’ issues. However, .500 or greater NFL teams, 0-3 SUATS in their last three games, are 14-1 SUATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a SU underdog win. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +2.5 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Kansas City is 8-18 ATS as a favorite when coming off one loss when facing a foe coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS versus avenging foes. The bottom line, though, the Niners’ No. 1 ranked defense is 101 YPG superior to that of the Chiefs. That being the case, Frisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as a dog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or fewer opponents. |
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10-23-22 | Giants +3 v. Jaguars | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It’s been another year of frustration for the Jags, whose shortened nickname seems apropos. At the helm is QB Trevor Lawrence who after setting an NFL record for most fumbles in a game (4) two weeks ago, comes off the best effort of his NFL career last week after he completed 20-of-22 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown while adding two more TDs on the ground. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts scored the game winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining to win 34-27. In the process, though, he also set another NFL record when he became the first quarterback in league history to complete over 90% of his passes on 20-plus attempts, score three touchdowns, commit no turnovers, and yet still lose the game. So, our question is why is Jacksonville suiting up as the favorite in this contest against the G-Men? However, the Jaguars 0-18 SU and 2-16 ATS in their last eighteen games against NFC competition. |
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10-23-22 | Bucs -13 v. Panthers | 3-21 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If the playoffs began this week, the 3-3 Bucs would surprisingly be the No 3 seed in the NFC, based on the fact they sit on top in the NFC South. The Panthers situation continues to worsen with each passing week. After WR Robbie Anderson was kicked off the sidelines following an altercation with coaches on Sunday against the Rams, he was traded to Arizona on Monday. What the Panthers really need is a quarterback. An ugly 1-8 ATS log in games before facing a division foe, coupled with the fact that not only is Tampa 6-1 ATS in this series, but also Brady’s 22-6-1 ATS away record after his team was upended as a favorite in its previous game, makes this a one-way look. |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | 10-19 | Loss | -104 | 45 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units The huge comeback win by the Colts last week vaults them back into contention in the wide-open AFC South where suddenly, if the NFL playoffs were to start this week, Indy would be the 7th and final seed from the AFC. Their counterpart Titans, by virtue of leading the AFC South, would hold down the No. 3 seed. Teams 3-2 teams after a 0-2 start (Tennessee) are 17-11-1 ATS in Game Six, but 0-3 SUATS when coming off a Bye week. In addition, the Titans are winless, 0-5, ITS (In The Stats) this season. Yes, we’d call them a false favorite in this matchup, especially with the Colts playing with a triple revenge chip on their shoulder. With the Nashville Cats 3-12 ATS in the first of consecutive division games, and the Colts 7-1 ATS versus opponents coming off Bye week. |
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10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Despite the Frogs’ unbeaten winning streak, they’re just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Big 12 battles, and 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7 or fewer points. TCU is also 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, 1-4 ATS with conference revenge the last two years, and 1-6 ATS home versus a conference foe with rest. That’s a lot of money burning, folks, and it gets worse when we see that the Wildcats are on a 4-0 ATS skein versus the Frogs, and 5-1 ATS record of late when playing in Fort Worth. We’re not done: K-State is 6-0 ATS in the second of consecutive Big 12 road affairs, and 10-1-1 ATS in the last twelve versus foes playing with conference revenge. Finally, the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS after scoring 10 or fewer points (beat Iowa State, 10-9) and if you think that scoreboard drought will be a problem, the last time Chris Klieman’s crew was held to 10 points, they dropped 41 on Oklahoma the following week. Finally consider that KSU head coach Klieman is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS against undefeated opponents coming off a win of 3-plus points, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog. |
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10-22-22 | Mississippi State +21 v. Alabama | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
SEC Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Bama’s 40 straight appearances in the Top 5 ends as they fall to No. 6 entering this contest. However, before knee-jerking and deciding to back Bama here, you need to know that Nick Saban is just 6-13 ATS in his CFB head coaching career, including just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS at home when coming off a SUATS loss and facing an FBS opponent. Mississippi State HC, Mike Leach is 30-15 ATS after a double digit loss, including 15-4 ATS in the last 19 games. Additionally playing against any unrested double-digit conference favorite from Game 7 out off its first loss of the season as a conference favorite of more than 7 points if they’re facing a greater than .333 conference foe off a loss is 15-1 ATS since 1980. |
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10-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Missouri -14 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 units Defensively, Missouri has allowed 26 points or less in four straight, including a near miss at home against Georgia (26-22), and a road trip to Florida, where they fell by seven as double-digit underdogs. QB Brady Cook looks to be evolving, completing 67.7 percent of his passes over the last two weeks, while running backs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader are both averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry, which should play well against Vandy’s 87th-ranked rush defense that’s allowing 4.7 ypc and 10 touchdowns in conference. Missouri is winless in conference, and have to get on track, another reason we should expect max effort from a rested side |
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10-22-22 | UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Amazingly OU West is terrible at defending their turf in a triple revenge match, going 0-4 ATS against a foe seeking to finally win one. Oregon is also on shaky ground in this series when coming off an ATS win of 13 or greater, going 0-5 ATS. The Bruins have a large stack of good numbers: 6-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points, 3-1 ATS off a home dog win – and Chip Kelly’s gambling numbers are even more intimidating. He’s 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS away off a win as a college coach. Consider as well that 6-0 dogs are 17-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win of 10 points or more. |
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10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
MAC game of the Month Rating: 5 Units After a slow 0-3 start, the Bulls have kicked their heels and ride a 4-0 SUATS win skein entering this contest. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG in those four games, while the defense has held its last two opponents to just 7 points apiece. Buffalo in this series is 5-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 ATS at UB Stadium. Buffalo is also 12-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-0-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition. Head coach Maurice Linguist, had sunk to 4-11 with the Bulls until they went on their recent 4 game rampage. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS favorite win. Also, consider that playing on any college football home dog who is 4-0 SUATS in its last four games if they were favored in their last game is 22-9 ATS since 1980, including 20-4 ATS if they are facing a foe coming off consecutive wins.. |
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10-21-22 | Suns -5 v. Blazers | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won six of their last seven contests against the Trail Blazers and are 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 meetings with Portland. The Trail Blazers have only covered twice in their last nine showings at Moda Center. |
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10-21-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Nets | 105-109 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This contest will be interesting as the Nets looked lackadaisical for long stretches of the game against the Pelicans. Sure, New Orleans got a boost from the return of Zion Williamson but the fact remains that the Nets were hammered right out of the gate. Toronto had their struggles against a Cleveland squad that added Donovan Mitchell in an offseason trade but came up with the clutch plays down the stretch to earn the victory. The Nets still have Durant and Irving to lead the way though their showing against the Pelicans is cause for concern. Given what we saw from Brooklyn on both ends of the floor, it’s tough to like them here, even at home. Take the points and the Raptors here as they claw out a win on the road. |
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10-21-22 | Pistons v. Knicks -7 | 106-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks lost their opener, but there is a lot to like there. They came back, on the road, and sent it to overtime against a good team. Now, they play their home opener and I would be shocked if they did not win it in front of a pumped up home crowd at Madison Square Garden. Detroit is going to be a team to be reckoned with, this season, with loads of top young talent. But this scene at MSG will be a lot to handle for a young team not used to winning on the road. Barrett was awful in game 1 and I expect a bounce back, and look for Brunson to put on a show in his home opener in front of the new fans. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4 | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units This one is a matchup of a team that can’t score against one that has had major issues keeping the opposition off the scoreboard this season. Denver is second-worst in the league in scoring and their inability to put the ball in the end zone proved too much to overcome against a Colts team that is dead last in scoring offense. That puts Wilson and company in a tough situation here as the Chargers are in the upper echelon of scoring offenses in the league. Denver’s defense has been solid and kept them in games this season though they face a stiff challenge here. Ekeler has been on fire the last couple of weeks and Herbert is getting healthier after suffering that rib injury back in week two against the Chiefs. Playing at home with the potential of having Allen back in the mix here makes the Chargers too dangerous for the Broncos to handle. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
SNF Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The stat that jumps out in this contest is that both teams rank No. 1 and 2 in Net Turnover Margin, with Philly +1.8 and Dallas +1.0. For what it’s worth, the Eagles are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS under Nick Sirianni in games in which they lose the TOs, while the Cowboys are 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS the same way under Mike McCarthy. Meanwhile, where Sunday night home teams coming off consecutive wins tend to struggle, there is no refuting the fact that teams who just upset the defending Super Bowl champions are close to no shows the following game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in games after Rams, and the Eagles seeking triple revenge it's important knowing America’s Team is a meager 1-9 SUATS away versus .428 or greater foes seeking triple revenge. Finally, playing against any NFL away team who upset the defending Super Bowl champion in their last game by 7+ points and scored 28+ points if they’re facing a .400 > foe and the O/U total in this game is < 44 is a PERFECT 15-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 49 h 4 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units It starts with KC QB Patrick Mahomes’ 12-1 SU mark versus .777 or greater foes, as well as his 4-1 SUATS record at home versus the AFC East during the regular season. On the flip side, Bills QB Josh Allen has struggled away in his NFL career against .700 or better foes, going just 2-5 SUATS. Digging deeper, the Bills are 1-12 ATS in the 2nd quarter of the season (Games 5-8) with a .500 or greater win percentage when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent coming off a home game. Head coach Andy Reid brings in a 28-9-1 ATS dog log into this prime time showdown when coming off consecutive wins, including 4-0-1 ATS at home. Consider also that the Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career. |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers +10 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tomlin has been at his best taking points at home, going 12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS since 2018. And for what it’s worth, he is 10-3 SUATS overall when coming off a loss of 17 or more points – including 4-0 ATS as a dog. Tampa enters just 2-6 ATS as road chalk of 4 or more points, and 1-5 ATS the last six games in this series. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against NFC South. Finally, consider that NFL non-division road favorites off three straight home games are 1-16 ATS when facing foes coming off consecutive losses, the last by 13 or more points. |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars +1.5 v. Colts | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jacksonville out gained Houston by 174 yards in last week’s 13-6 loss. The Jags are also 9-1-1 ATS the last eleven games in this series, as well as 4-1-1 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday contest. On the other side of the field, Indy is on a 0-4 SUATS losing slide when coming off a SU underdog win, while head coach Frank Reich is only 12-22-2 ATS against sub .500 opponents, including 3-10-1 ATS when coming off a win. Finally, Indy is a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight division home games. |
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10-15-22 | Clemson -3.5 v. Florida State | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units FSU is 1-4 ATS at home in a conference revenge game, 1-4 ATS before the Bye week, 2-7 ATS in Game 7. Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series. Clemson is clearly improving and a groggy bunch of Seminoles hungover from last week is just what the Tigers should munch on to remain unbeaten. |
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10-15-22 | LSU +2.5 v. Florida | Top | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The bottom line is that Brian Kelly will need to do a better job or his one-game deficit in the SEC West will be blowing in the wind. At least he helps himself by bringing along a 21-12 ATS record as a road dog, including 9-1 ATS off an ATS loss of 9 or more points. LSU has also held its own in the last nine series contests with Florida, going 6-2-1 ATS overall and 3-1 SUATS away. New Gators head coach Billy Napier looks to be behind the 8-ball here, as the host team has gone 1-4 ATS in five lined games under Napier this season. Florida also hasn’t fared well of late in home games when playing with SEC revenge, going just 1-4 ATS. Consider finally, that Napier stands 5-11-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents. |
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10-15-22 | Arkansas v. BYU | Top | 52-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units First, BYU in the favorite role at home is 2-6 ATS when the spread is under 6 points. Second, Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or less. Third, the Razorbacks are a sharp 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Even better, or worse depending on whom you’re rooting for, a top-notch SEC underdog coming off losses to Bama and Texas A&M finds itself 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in this situation. Consider that the Cougars have not faired well versus the SEC going 1-8 ATS versus SEC foes since 1990. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | 17-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Penn State has gone 2-0 SUATS so far in road trips this season while Michigan’s sole cover in three home games came against pitiful Connecticut. Penn State is also 4-1-1 ATS as dogs versus an undefeated conference opponent, and head coach James Franklin chips in with a money-making 37-18-1 ATS mark when coming off consecutive wins. Additionally the Lions bring in a 21-4 SU and 17-6-1 ATS record when undefeated, including 14-2-1 ATS when facing winning foes. To Cap it off, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is 2-11 ATS in his CFB career in games involving undefeated opponents, including 0-9 ATS the last nine games. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is a miserable 1-8 ATS as double-digit chalk in conference games. On the flip side, the Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 3-plus points when coming off a loss, and following a tough 1-point loss at home against Kansas State last week, the Cyclones suddenly find themselves with their backs to the college bowl wall. That’s where head coach Matt Campbell comes to the rescue, as he is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit dog in conference games, including 10-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. |
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10-15-22 | Auburn v. Ole Miss -14.5 | 34-48 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ole Miss doesn't have any reason to look past Auburn despite the Tigers' .500 record and struggling offense. The meat of the Rebels schedule awaits them after this game with matchups at LSU, at Texas A&M and finally at home against Alabama. The Rebels need a convincing win against Auburn as they ready for a make-or-break run in the SEC. Ole Miss's ground game should easily overwhelm Auburn's 62nd ranked rushing defense and the new wrinkle of a solid passing attack will likely be unveiled yet again when Auburn attempts to stack the box. Kiffin has never been known for his modest goals so don't expect the Ole Miss taskmaster to take his foot off the gas in this game. |
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10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU is only 1-6 ATS in Weekday games and 1-4 ATS versus opponents with double revenge, but they’re also 0-7 ATS as conference home favorites when coming off consecutive losses. That’s a perfect set-up for Navy’s mind boggling 15-0-1 ATS as a dog off a win versus losing foes. |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Owls are just 1-4 ATS in this series and riding a 0-6 SUATS losing skein in their last six road games. Ugh. Meanwhile, UCF’s program continues to live the high life (nine bowls in last ten seasons), though fans were somewhat disappointed in Gus Malzahn’s 9-4 debut last year after finishing 41-8 the previous four seasons. They were also quite upset when the Knights took the biggest fall in the AP Poll two weeks ago, snapping a 33-week streak of being ranked. However, UCF has won three straight and with an extra week to prepare, should be in a salty mood here tonight. Since they’ve beaten the Owls by 109 points in the last three meetings, we look for more of the same this evening. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs -7 | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Playing On any Monday night home team coming off back-to-back away games if they are facing a foe coming off a home game. That’s because these MNF hosts are 33-13 ATS in this role when coming off a SUATS win. Tie in the Raiders’ 1-7 ATS mark in games when seeking triple revenge, and their 1-4 ATS record in their last five division road games, and we certainly don’t want to go against Mahomes here, not when he sports a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record under the Monday Night lights. |