Rating: 2 Units

Once again, the Thunder are the safer bet given they’re 65-36-4 ATS on the season and have been fantastic in these playoffs at home. The Thunder have also lost two straight games, just once since November. It would surprise nobody if the Thunder takes care of business like they have all year. However, I’ve been on the Pacers throughout this series, and it’s too late to turn back now. The Pacers have the more experienced coach, the more explosive offense and have an underrated defense. If the Pacers don’t collapse in game 4, this series is already over. I get the vibes that the Pacers aren’t afraid of the Thunder, and they’ve played stunning ball in these playoffs on the road. I question the inexperience of the Thunder and if those kids are ready for a game 7 of this magnitude. The Pacers are live in this spot like they have been all series. I’ll grab the points for insurance.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are the safe pick because they’re 65-35-4 ATS on the season. However, I’m once again grabbing the points with the Pacers. The Thunder haven’t been good on the road in these playoffs, and they’re 1-8 ATS on the road. The Pacers should’ve won game 4, and they had their chances in game 5 despite Haliburton being a decoy. It was a two point game late in the fourth quarter. The Pacers have shown to have enough offense without Haliburton, and potentially more minutes for T.J. McConnell wouldn’t be a bad thing. The Pacers are 9-5 SU in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Pacers have won 12 of their last 17 games when an underdog of five or more points. Don’t write the Pacers off just yet. Give me the points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Oklahoma City finally covered a road playoff game after going 0-8 ATS in their first eight postseason games in Game 4. The Thunder now has momentum in their back pocket plus home court advantage after rallying for their Game 4 victory. Indiana struggled in crunch time in Game 4 and that may come back to haunt them as they could have headed into this game with a 3-1 series advantage. The Pacers still have quality depth and they have the talent to hang with the Thunder. We saw them win Game 1 here before getting drubbed in Game 2. With Oklahoma City holding momentum, you have to think they can pull out the win but banking on a double-digit victory is dicey seeing that only one of the first four games has been decided by that margin. The Thunder gets the nod straight up but play the line, take the points and the Pacers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder don’t string losses together, and they’re 63-35-4 ATS on the season. I can understand why you’d consider laying the points with OKC. However, I’ve been on the Pacers' majority of the playoffs and gave them a chance to win this series from the start. Two wins away from a title, I have a hard time leaving points on the table. The Pacers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 home games as an underdog. The Thunder are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games, and they have yet to cover a number on the road in these playoffs. The Pacers are live to win this game outright, so to see six free points feels like a no-brainer.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pacers could have Jarace Walker returning from injury, but it does seem as though Tyrese Haliburton might have to play through a bit of a niggle after he was seen hobbling after Game 2. Still, the Pacers can turn to players like Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell, who should play better at home. There is no reason for the Thunder to mess with a winning formula, as Chet Holmgren looked much more dangerous in the starting role. Looking at betting trends, the Pacers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog in the playoffs, while the Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their seven games as a road favorite. The Pacers would be down 0-2 in the series if not for some Haliburton heroics at the end of Game 1, but the Pacers were good enough to steal home-court advantage, which is crucial in this series. The Pacers will be disappointed that they didn't give themselves much of a chance after such a poor first half on Sunday, but the Pacers' got the split on the road. They are returning to a packed home crowd. The momentum is with the Thunder after their big win in Game 2, but the Pacers love being the underdog at home. I think they can pull off the minor upset with the role players stepping up on their home court.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder haven’t lost two straight games in two months and they’ve only done it that one time since November 20. The Thunder are also 62-34-4 ATS on the season. There’s plenty of reason to not panic with OKC. With that said, this line is wild. The Pacers didn’t even play great in game 1 and managed to win. The Pacers had 19 turnovers in the first half and got subpar shooting games from Haliburton, Nembhard and Nesmith. For whatever reason oddsmakers haven’t believed in the Pacers from the start and here they are three wins away from a title. The odds also keep increasing for some reason? The Pacers have been a double-digit underdog three times since December 29, and while they’ve covered all three of those games, they’ve also outright won those games. The Thunder should win a must-win game, but would it really shock you if the Pacers continue to do what they’ve done all playoffs? Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

You may think the gigantic line of 9.5 is a crazy number for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. In reality, it's not. The Thunder -- who owned the league's best regular season record at 68-14 -- were an astounding 29-2 versus the Eastern Conference this season and a 23-6-2 against the spread (ATS), covering in 79% of those games, which would be the best ever performance over a full season since 2000. Additionally, underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals have historically had issues covering the spread in recent memory, going 3-17 ATS in the last 20 years and are a woeful 8-21 ATS dating all the way back to 1996. Could the Pacers steal one of the games in OKC this series? Potentially. But I don't see any way that's happening tonight in Game 1, especially when the Thunder have covered this number in four straight home games and in 7 of 9 contests at Paycom Center this postseason.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves had a chance to really flip the series on its head, but they missed a real chance to level up the series on Monday. The series now shifts back to the Paycom Center, where the Thunder have won seven of eight games so far during these playoffs. The line has opened with the Thunder as heavy favorites, and that's not surprising given that they covered Games 1 and 2 with ease at home. The Timberwolves are playing for their season right now, and they might get off to a better start, but if the Thunder gets hot early, this one could get ugly in a hurry. I think the Timberwolves have already thrown their two best punches, and it's time for the Thunder to finish the job at home and book their tickets to the NBA Finals. 

Rating; 2 Units

The Pacers should be favored at home where they have 33 wins and they’ve been the better team in this series. However, the Pacers blew a 20-point lead in game 3, giving the Knicks new life. The Knicks played their best game of the series their last time out, and they’re now 6-1 SU on the road in these playoffs. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between the Knicks and Pacers. I liked the Pacers entering this series, but that game 3 loss rubbed me the wrong way. It’s not easy to win a series when you throw games away. We’re also going to see a Brunson explosion at some point. We had the KAT game already. I’ll grab the bucket with the Knicks.

The Thunder are the best bet in sports with their 61-32-4 ATS record. It’s hard to find a moneymaker as consistent as the Thunder, so I wouldn’t talk you off the ledge if looking at the small chalk. However, I’m backing the Timberwolves for the same reason I did in game 3. The Timberwolves are a good team that I just don’t think has played their best ball yet, and is a team I don’t think will go down quietly. The Timberwolves hung around with the Thunder for a half in the first two games, and they finally played 48 minutes in game 3. The Timberwolves are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Everybody was so quick to put the Thunder in the finals after the first two games, but I’m here saying not so fast, my friend. Give me the Timberwolves and the bucket in a game they should win outright. 

Rating: 2 Units

It's convenient to count out the Knicks in Game 3, as Indiana stole the momentum with a late rally in Game 1 and sustained NY's best shot in Game 2. Losing both games at home puts the Knicks at a disadvantage, but that's how they like it. New York has thrived in an underdog role, storming back from large deficits on the road at Boston last round. Being the top dog joyously celebrated by their home fans didn't suit this squad. Now, they have been written off by most, but these guys play much better with chips on their shoulders. It's easy to get caught up in the moment, but let's not forget that they led by 14 points with under three minutes remaining in regulation in Game 1, as Indiana needed a fortuitous bounce on a last-second shot to send the game to OT. They also defended much better in Friday's loss, but lost their scoring touch after a slow start to the fourth quarter. In short, I feel confident the Knicks and Pacers are more evenly matched than the previous results suggest. It's going to take a lot of guts and determination to win, but the Knicks aren't short in those departments. Bet on the NY ML in Game 3!

Rating: 2 Units

I liked the Pacers entering this series and game 1s result only strengthen my stance. While the Knicks haven’t lost two straight games in well over a month, it’s not going to be easy to get off the canvas after such a result. Teams are 970-0 over the last 27 postseasons when having a 14-plus point lead with less than 2:50 left in regulation before that result. It was a historic collapse. We also can’t just say the Knicks will play harder or whatever, as they continue to play their starters into the ground. The longer the Knicks play, the more it favors the opposition. The Pacers are the deepest team in the league. The Pacers have also won five straight road games in these playoffs. Since April 27, the Pacers are 6-1 SU as an underdog. Since December 29, the Pacers are 9-3 SU when underdogs of five or more points. At some point we have to admit these Pacers are good. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are the safest bet in sports as they’re now 60-31-4 ATS on the season. The Thunder have also won their last four home games by an average of 27 points. The Thunder should be favored and there’s a lot telling us this will be another comfortable win. With that said, I still like the Timberwolves and the points as I think they’re too good of a team to turn down in the big underdog role. The Timberwolves looked in good shape through the first half of game 1 but completely fell apart in the second. While credit goes to OKC, I also don’t believe the Timberwolves will shoot 29 percent from three all series long. Reid and DiVincenzo are much better than what they’ve shown recently. The Timberwolves are also a feisty group that has had great road success in the playoffs the last two seasons. I’m not going to panic from one game. So, while the Thunder have been cash cows the last two years, I’m grabbing the points with the Timberwolves.

Rating: 2 Units

The Knicks were expected to beat the Pistons in the first round, but the way they beat the Celtics in the second round was truly impressive. There is a bit of a luck factor involved as the Celtics had to deal with key injuries, but the Knicks showed great resiliency to hang tough and erase two 20-point deficits to win Games 1 and 2 on the road. You can make an argument for either side in what should be a close contest, but I am leaning towards the Knicks, who to draw first blood at home in front of a packed house.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves will be relying on Edwards to take his game to another level on the offensive end. Rudy Gobert has been anchoring their defense while Julius Randle has been steady as he has averaged 23.9 points so far during these playoffs. The Timberwolves have the advantage of extra rest, but the extra layoff has hurt teams in these playoffs, so I will back the Thunder to strike first at home. 

Rating: 2 Units

As I’ve said before, the Thunder are going to be favored in nearly every game because they’re the safest bet in sports. The Thunder are 58-31-4 ATS on the season. OKC is also the healthier team. The Nuggets lack depth as it is, so they’re in a world of trouble if Gordon can’t go, while Murray and Westbrook aren’t 100 percent. I’m going to assume Gordon will give it a go with it being a game seven. Either way, we’re getting a boatload of points with the Nuggets, the team that has the best player in Jokic. The underdog has covered eight of the last 10 games between the Nuggets and Thunder. The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog, which includes five outright wins. The Nuggets have covered four straight playoff games as an underdog. The Nuggets are also 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games when underdogs of six or more points. Give me the Nuggets and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

I want to lay the bucket with the Knicks at home and not overreact to game 5. However, the Celtics just played their most complete game of the playoffs. The Celtics have also been better on the road this season where they’ve racked up 35 wins. As good as the crowd is in MSG, the Knicks haven’t played well there in the playoffs. In fact, the Knicks have outright lost three of their last four home games as a favorite. Also, that Knicks crowd can get nervous very easily and if the Celtics start the game strong, it won’t be much of a factor. There’s also the fact the Knicks players keep getting run into the ground and the longer this series plays out, the more it favors the opponent. The entire Knicks starting five are in the top-12 for playoff minutes played. There’s only one Celtic player in the top-16, who is Derick White. A battle of nutrition could be a role in a tight game like this. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Knicks close things out, but I’m leaning toward the Celtics and the free bucket.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder will continue to get love from oddsmakers and bettors as they’re 58-30-4 ATS on the season. OKC is the safest and most profitable bet in sports. With that said, the Nuggets have played OKC tough in this series and with a bounce here or a bounce there, this is a different series. The Nuggets win game 5 if anybody was willing to help Jokic in the fourth quarter. The good news is Jokic has found his form after struggling the first few games. Also, the Nuggets are 10-4 SU in their last 14 home games as an underdog, a stretch that goes back to April 2022. The Nuggets have also covered their last four home playoff games as an underdog, which includes three covers this postseason. I kind of expect this series to go the distance, but I’ll take the points with the Nuggets for insurance. 

Rating: 2 Units

I get the Thunder have been the best team in the league this season and they’ve been kind to bettors all year with a 58-29-4 ATS record. As I’ve said before, the Thunder are the best bet in sports these days. However, this line is disrespectful toward a Nuggets team that’s hung with the Thunder in this series and could easily have the lead right now. The Nuggets are also competing despite Jokic not playing great, which probably won’t happen for much longer. Also, this will be just the fifth time since 2024 where the Nuggets are double-digit underdogs. Since November 2023, the Nuggets are 3-2 SU as double-digit underdogs. Since November 2022, the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs. I just don’t understand this line. The Nuggets aren’t going to roll over. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics are still slightly shorthanded with Sam Hauser still ruled out, while the Knicks are coming in with a full squad once again. The Celtics needed to respond after dropping the first two games at home, but they will be feeling much better after bouncing back with a dominant win on the road in Game 3. The Celtics rediscovered their touch from the 3-point line where they connected on 20 of 40 attempts, and they are going to be too tough to beat if they can replicate those numbers. The Knicks were somewhat lucky to run down massive leads in the first two games, but they looked outmatched in Game 3 against a Celtics team who were playing like their season was on the line. The Knicks are 6-3 ATS in their nine games in these playoffs, while the Celtics are 4-4 ATS so far. The Knicks are capable of pulling off the upset here, but they're going to need a monster game from Brunson and plenty of support from Towns and Anunoby. The Celtics have fallen in love with the 3-point shot this season, and that could be their downfall if they get off to a slow start. But considering what is at stake, I think the Celtics come out swinging and earn the narrow win and cover on the road in this spot. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Cavs are now 52-36-1 ATS on the season which makes them the second most profitable team in the NBA behind only the Thunder. The Cavs also had their way in game 3 now that they’re at full strength, so it’s easy to back them again in game 4. I still like the Pacers and the points. I gave the Pacers a real shot to win this series before it started and one rough showing doesn’t change much. The Pacers have 32 wins at home this season and they can be scary good when the offense is rolling. I don’t think there’s much of a gap between these teams. I’m grabbing the points with the Pacers.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder might still be kicking themselves after wasting a great opportunity to take the lead in the series, as they just went ice-cold in the overtime period to allow the Nuggets to slip away in the end. Gilgeous-Alexander had his moments earlier in the game, but overall he had a rough outing as he missed his final seven shot attempts and did not attempt a field goal in overtime. The pressure is on the Thunder to respond and avoid falling further behind in the series, but they are going to need Gilgeous-Alexander to show up big time. It's hard to imagine the Nuggets' Jokic having another poor shooting night, so while I like the Thunder to get the win, I feel that the Nuggets will do enough to at least get the cover in the end.

Rating: 2 Units

This is a must-win for the Celtics, as no team in NBA history has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit and come back to win a series. Boston is only shooting 25.0% from three in this series, that is a number that will come up. They shot over 36% from deep in the regular season, and have a lineup strategically built to excel from the three-point line. New York's defense has something to do with this, but Boston also had their fair share of wide-open threes that they failed to connect on. Boston's defense showed up in Game 2, they held Brunson to 17 points after he was averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason up until that game. If the Knicks win this, the series is virtually over, and the Eastern Conference favorites will be on the road to elimination. Boston is too talented to lose three in a row to the Knicks after they swept them in the regular season. I'm betting on a big bounce-back game from Boston.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder and the small chalk is worth a look because they’re the best bet in sports. The Thunder are 58-27-4 ATS on the season. I get it. Game 2 was also such a beatdown, that it’s easy to think there’s a wide gap between these teams. However, the Nuggets are a tough out at home and they have won their last two home playoff games as an underdog. It seems like when people were quick to write off the Nuggets against the Clippers, they responded well. This is an experienced team that’s playing together well and I don’t believe game 2 is an indication of how the rest of this series plays out. I’ll grab the points with the Nuggets.

Rating: 2 Units

The Timberwolves can’t possibly shoot worse than they have in their last two games, so they’re due for a breakthrough. The Warriors are also in trouble with Curry out, as he’s not only their best player, but he takes so much attention away from others. The Warriors will be a lot easier to defend. The Timberwolves have no excuse not to win this game. However, double-digit chalk is a bit steep when you consider the Warriors experience in big games. Butler also has the ability to take his game to another level this time of year. This is the first time the Warriors have been a double-digit underdog in the playoffs since 2007. The Timberwolves have failed to cover five of their last nine games as a double-digit favorite and two of those games were outright losses. Underdogs and road teams have also had a field day so far in the second half of the playoffs. I’ll grab the points with the Warriors.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder have lost two straight games once since December, and they’re still the best bet in sports with a 57-27-4 ATS record. I wouldn’t talk you off the ledge if expecting the Thunder to bounce back in convincing fashion. However, the Nuggets are a team that’s growing on me as they just play well together and find ways to win even if they shouldn’t. The Nuggets are also a gritty experienced team that seems to handle the moment better. while the Thunder have bashed teams into the ground all year, there’s still an inexperience factor here and who knows how they’re going to respond from such a loss. for the first time this season, the Thunder are on their heels and kind of in a must-win spot. Also, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a double-digit underdog, and they’ve outright won four of those covers. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pacers are still shorthanded with Isaiah Jackson still out, while the Cavaliers are keeping eyes on De'Andre Hunter, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, who are all questionable. The Cavaliers may have thought that this series was going to be easy, but the Pacers certainly made a statement with a gritty upset win on the road in the series opener. There was always a chance that the Cavaliers would show signs of rust after such a lengthy layoff, but Mitchell shot just one of 11 from the 3-point line, which I don't see happening again. This is definitely one of those games where you should check the lineups before tipoff given the dark injury cloud hanging over the Cavaliers. However, assuming that they come in with the same squad, I like the Cavaliers to bounce back with a narrow win. As for the spread, I actually prefer a play on the Pacers, with fingers crossed that the Cavaliers are even more banged up for this one. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are going to get the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been the best team in the league all year. OKC is also at home with the rest advantage and is 57-26-4 ATS on the season. However, how much rest is too much rest? The Thunder haven’t played in over a week. While the Nuggets were in a dogfight against the Clippers, sometimes playing every other day is good for a rhythm. Also, due to game 7 being a blowout, Jokic only played 32 minutes, which was his lowest total of the series. The Nuggets should be fine in terms of rest. The Nuggets have won two of the last three games against the Thunder which includes an upset March 10 as a 9.5-point underdog. The Nuggets have outright won four of their last seven games when underdogs of five or more points. I just think oddsmakers are being a little too disrespectful toward the Nuggets. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors are expected to have a full squad once again, while the Rockets are still playing without Jae'Sean Tate and Jock Landale. The Warriors already missed two opportunities to close out the series and are now just one loss away from a first-round playoff exit. But the momentum is clearly with the Rockets, who are brimming with confidence now that they have home-court advantage. The Warriors are certainly capable of pulling off the upset on the road given their championship experience, but I expect the Rockets' role players to step up at home. You can make an argument for either side, but the Rockets are playing great defense at the moment, and I think that will be the difference in a close one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cavs are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home given they’ve been the better team this season and they have the rest advantage. The Cavs are also 51-34-1 ATS on the season. However, the Cavs could be down Garland for this game. Also, the Pacers are scoring at such a high clip that it’s hard to turn down free points with them. The Pacers have been one of the best teams in the league since January and if the play from that Bucks series carries over, this series will be closer than people think. The Pacers have the depth and the scoring to give any team fits. Also, the Pacers have won three of the last four games against the Cavs. I believe this series will be closer than the odds indicate as the Pacers are better than oddsmakers are suggesting. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors re going to get the benefit of the doubt at home for obvious reasons. The Warriors core was also on the bench laughing during the game 5 loss, so they don’t seem worried. However, the underdog has covered six of the last 10 games between the Rockets and Warriors. This series has also been tight with most of the games being decided in the fourth quarter, and you can argue a bounce here or there, and it’s the Rockets that are sitting with the lead. The Warriors are thin in terms of depth and that’s a concern for me the longer this series plays out. The Warriors are 4-7-1 ATS in their last 12 games when favorites of four or more points. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Rockets take the Warriors down to the wire and even steal it. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

I had the Clippers before this series began and I still believe they’re the better team and can win it. The Clippers have the depth advantage as the Nuggets lack a bench outside of Westbrook. Oddmakers agreed as the Clippers were decent sized favorites to win the series entering game 5 despite not having home court. Even down 2-3 in the series, the Nuggets aren’t that big of a favorite to advance. With all of that said this line is disrespectful toward the Nuggets. The Clippers have had trouble closing games in this series and they looked awful in a blowout game 5 loss. Also, Harden is being less and less productive and he’s coming off an embarrassing showing. We know Harden’s subpar efforts in the playoffs over his career and if he’s back to that, the Clippers are in trouble. Again, I still like the Clippers as a team and kind of expect this series to go the distance, but I like the value of the points with the Nuggets in game 6. 

Rating: 2 Units

The third quarter in game four was the most complete quarter played by the Nuggets in the first four games thus far. Returning home, I expect this to be the most complete game overall played by the Nuggets in game five. They've yet to display 48 minutes of solid offense despite coming in as a top-three team in both scoring and field goal shooting. The Clippers' defense looked more vulnerable in game four, and Jokic was even more of a factor for the Nuggets, scoring a series-high 36 points. The Nuggets will come alive after surviving game four and take their most decisive win of the series.

Rating: 2 Units

The home team has won every game in this series and the favorite has covered eight of the last 10 games between the Bucks and Pacers. The Bucks coming back and winning the way they did game 3 should have a carry over effect in game 4. Lillard should be better as he now has two games under his belt. The Pacers could have big blow depending on the status of Mathurin. I had the Bucks winning this series before it started and I’m not off the bandwagon. The line is reasonable. Give me the Bucks and the small chalk.

Rating: 2 Unit

The Celtics are now 39-45-1 ATS on the season and they’re dealing with injuries. With Holiday out and Brown dealing with a knee issue, the Celtics are vulnerable. The Magic have 24 wins at home and they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games when underdogs of five or more points. The Magic have covered four of the last is games against the Celtics. The Magic are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games overall. I just can’t lay this sort of number with the Celtics given their injury situation. I’ll grab the points with the Magic at home in game 4. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers were good enough to run down to deficits in Game 3 to give themselves a chance. But in the end, it was the Timberwolves' effort on defense that proved to be the difference in a game they could've gone either way. The Lakers will obviously be disappointed with the defeat, but they will take some confidence from the fact that Doncic was hampered as he was dealing with a stomach bug, so he should be feeling better for this one. The Timberwolves hold all the momentum, and they won't lose if McDaniels goes off for 40 points again. However, the Lakers are almost playing for their season in this game, so I will back James and Doncic to both have big games in this contest. 

Rating: 2 Units

New York managed to escape Game 3 with a win but this is a Pistons team that isn’t intimidated now. They’ve hung in with the Knicks for three games and if they could get some consistent secondary scoring to support Cunningham, they could be dangerous. Therein lies their problem though: with youth comes a feeling of being bulletproof but it also brings with it an impetuousness that can lead to backbreaking stretches like the 21-0 Knicks run in Game 1 of the series. New York, though they find ways to shoot themselves in the foot at times, are a team that has been here before in crunch time. Look for that experience to make the difference as the Knicks take a 3-1 series lead.

Rating: 2 Units

The Thunder are still missing Ousmane Dieng, while the Grizzlies are keeping an eye on Luke Kennard, and they have listed Ja Morant as doubtful for this game. The Grizzlies did all they could to take a stand in this series, but they weren't able to hang onto a 29-point lead and their star guard Morant to injury also. The Thunder had a nightmare start to Game 3, and they were still able to get the job done, so it's hard to imagine this series lasting much longer. The Thunder should be able to win this one comfortably, but I think the Grizzlies can hang on just enough to get the backdoor cover at home once the Thunder rest their starters. 

Rating: 2 Units

I’d expect the Rockets to play better with a playoff game under their belt and this is a must-win situation if they want a real chance to win the series. You can’t lose the first two games at home and like your chances to advance. So, I can understand why the Rockets are getting the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers. With that said, the Warriors managed to win game 1 despite it being played at the Rockets' pace. The Warriors weren’t able to go crazy offensively and still won by 10 points. The Warriors are now 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 games against the Rockets. The Warriors have endless playoff experience on their roster, while the Rockets are still wet behind the ears. There are also two closers in Curry and Butler, which you don’t often see. A Rockets win wouldn’t be shocking, but the value is with the Warriors and the free bucket, as they’re built for this time of year. The Rockets and their youth is still a question mark. Give me the bucket.

Rating: 2 Units

A lot of people are going to be on the Lakers because there’s no way Luka and LeBron go down 0-2 at home. Right? There’s also no way the Timberwolves shoot the ball the way they did in the first contest. Like game 1, I want the points with the Timberwolves. While the Lakers have the star power, the Timberwolves are the deeper team that has a size and defensive advantage. The Timberwolves have played their best ball over the last month and they have won six of the last nine games against the Lakers. I had the Timberwolves winning this series from the start as it feels like a bad matchup. The Lakers lack true size, and they’re going up against Gobert, Ried, and Randle. Not to mention McDaniels can make life hell, and Edwards is a killer who lives for the big stage. As great as Luka and LeBron are, I question if the rest of the guys are enough. Give me the points.

Rating: 2 Units

There’s value in getting a free bucket with the Nuggets at home where they’re a tough out. The Nuggets also have the best player in the world so you can always make a case for them in spots like this. However, I liked the Clippers entering this series and still like them. The Clippers are the better coached, deeper team, and they had game 1, but had issues closing quarters. The Clippers have to feel like they let one get away and while it’s tough to win the series when losing games you shouldn’t, this is an experienced team that shouldn’t allow losses to linger. There’s 11 players on this Clippers roster that are 28 years old or older. I’d expect the Clippers to realize what happened, clean things up, and steal home court. I’ll side with the Clippers.

Rating: 2 Units

On paper, the Cavs should have their way with the Heat. The Cavs were also 48-33-1 ATS on the season which made them the second most profitable team in the NBA in the regular season. However, the Cavs have seen eight of their 18 losses come since March 16. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 games against the Cavaliers. The Heat are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a double-digit underdog. Five of those 10 covers were outright wins. Since 2020, the Heat are 5-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog in the playoffs and three of those covers were outright wins. The Cavs haven’t been a double-digit favorite in the playoffs since 2017, and they haven’t covered a playoff game as this large of a favorite since 2016. I want the points with the Heat.

Rating: 2 Units

This line is surprising. Yes, the Grizzlies are going to get the benefit of the doubt because they’re at home with the rest advantage. However, the Grizzlies haven’t been great over the last couple of months and are dealing with a banged-up Morant. I’d assume Morant tries to play, but he’s not going to be 100 percent after turning his ankle a couple of days ago. Either way, I was on the Mavs against the Kings and I’m double dipping here. The Mavs are as healthy as they’ve been in a while and their size depth is giving teams fits. AD, Gafford, Lively, Washington, and the Mavs have endless bodies to dominate the boards and get easy points in the paint. It’s also turning opponents into outside shooters on the defensive end. No easy buckets. Brandon Williams is also coming along as a consistent scorer, and he’s coming off a brilliant performance against Sacramento. The Mavs have potential and I like what I’m seeing now that this group is healthy at the right time. I’ll take the points with the Mavericks

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets are the better team, and they’ve won four straight games against the Kings, so they should be favored. However, the Nuggets have been a mess over the last two weeks, and they just surprisingly fired their head coach. I’m not sure how the Nuggets are going to perform with this quick turnaround. Coach firings are tricky, as some teams rally behind it, while others fall into a deeper, darker hole. The Kings need to keep winning to keep their spot in the ninth seed, and they’ve won three straight games, two on the road as big underdogs. I’ll lean toward the Kings and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Miami Heat are not as threatening on the road where they are six games below the .500 mark on the season. The Chicago Bulls have been hard to beat on their home court, sporting a 4-1 record in their past five games. The Bulls have thrived in two meetings against the Heat, leading the season series 2-0.  Chicago is the superior offensive squad in this matchup, averaging 1.2 more points per 100 possessions. The Heat have cooled down recently, dropping two of their past three games. The  Bulls defeated the Heat by nine and five points, respectively, in the two meetings. Four of the Bulls' past six wins have occurred by 10 or more points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Lakers are still shorthanded with Rui Hachimura and Bronny James still out, while the Mavericks have ruled out Jaden Hardy again, and they have Dante Exum listed as questionable. The Lakers would love a win here to help them cling onto the third seed in the Western Conference. They beat the Mavericks by 107-99 back on Feb. 25, but it's always tough playing on zero days rest against a team like the Mavericks, who will be well-rested as they haven't played since Saturday. The Lakers are the healthier team in better form lately, but the Mavericks will be up for this one, especially Davis, who would love to beat his former team.

Rating: 2 Units

The 76ers are still missing a long list of players, including Andre Drummond, Joel Embiid, Kyle Lowry, and Paul George, while the Wizards have ruled out Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, and Richaun Holmes again. You couldn't back either side with any confidence these days, and you couldn't pay me enough to watch this game, but I am leaning towards the Wizards in this one. I think they would be favorites if they weren't playing their second game of a back-to-back set. I would certainly rather stay away from this game, but the Wizards were competitive against the Pacers last night, and I think they will get the job done in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Celtics have won 11 of their last 12 games, while the Knicks have won five of their last six games. Boston has the edge here because they're shooting the ball well, making over 48 percent of their shots in their last three games. They do a good job of finding the open man, and they rebounded the ball very well in their last three games, grabbing more than 18 offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won't give up many easy-scoring chances. The Knicks aren't very good defensively and they're giving up more than 110 points per game at home, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Celtics. Go with Boston to cover the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cavs will clinch the Eastern Conference's top seed soon enough, but this one is a difficult matchup. The Bulls are third in the NBA in 3-point field goals made and can take advantage of the 14th-ranked Cleveland 3-point defense. The Cavs are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league, but that plays into the strength of the Bulls, ranked second in the NBA in 3-point defense. The Cavs are also just 4-6 ATS in their last ten against the Bulls and 3-7 ATS in their last ten overall.

Final Four Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

The Blue Devils come into this game 3-1 ATS in the tournament thus far. They have an astounding +94 edge in scoring margin. The Cougars are 2-1-1 ATS in the tournament and have a scoring margin edge of +16. The Blue Devils' length all over the court has given their opponents fits thus far, and that will be true against the Cougars as well. Houston's ability to protect the ball has been paramount to their success, but the Blue Devils are just as stingy at protecting the basketball. As well as Houston has played defensively, the Blue Devils have been that much better offensively. They are shooting the ball at nearly a 60 percent clip, including nearly 50 percent from 3-point range. The Cougars don't have that kind of firepower on the offensive end. Defensively, while Houston has held the opposition to 37 percent shooting, the Blue Devils have been slightly better, holding teams to 36 percent shooting. Houston would likely be the favorite against each of the other two teams in the Final Four, but this is just a bad matchup for them.

Rating: 3 Units

The public seems to have forgotten how dominant Auburn was this season, winning the most difficult conference in the regular season. ESPN has Auburn listed as the biggest longshot to win the National Championship in the Final Four at +550, while they have Duke listed at even money. Auburn has the best true post player in this game and four other scoring guards who can match up with the Florida perimeter players. Broome should continue his dominant play, he just put up 25 points and 14 boards against Michigan State, and will have a similar showing here. Condon and Haugh are not strong enough to keep Broome away from the bucket, and Chinyelu only played 11 minutes against Texas Tech because he is not as threat to score. Florida has strong guards, but Auburn is right there with Baker-Mazara, Jones, Kelly and Pettiford who will not be shown up. Take the points in what should be a great battle between conference rivals.

Rating: 2 Units

The Cavs obviously have the ability to blow the doors off and they’re still a profitable 45-30-1 ATS on the season. However, the Cavs have been shaky over these last few weeks and there’s no reason to go hard anymore after losing the top seed to the Thunder. The Cavs have failed to cover seven of their last 10 games. Also, the Cavs have failed to cover six of their last nine games as a double-digit favorite. The Cavs are pretty much locked into the top seed in the East and the second seed in the NBA, so I question the motivation to lay the wood to an undermanned Spurs team. I’ll grab the points.

Rating: 2 Units

The Raptors have won four of their last five games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back. While the Pistons have lost each of their last three road games and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three road games when playing with a rest advantage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Kings are still keeping an eye on Devin Carter, who is questionable, while the Hornets have ruled out LaMelo Ball once again. The Kings are coming into this meeting ice-cold, and their confidence must be at an all-time low after losing to the Wizards in their last outing. The Hornets have been just as bad lately, so you really couldn't back either team with any confidence. The Kings should be good enough to win this comfortably given the firepower they possess, but I just don't feel that they should be so heavily favored against anyone at this point. This is a game I would rather stay away from, but if I had to choose, I would take the Hornets with the points.

Rating; 2 Units

An outright Villanova win would not surprise me, but this line has gotten too large to back the favorite based on points. Both of these have strong offenses with defensive inconsistency. USC has also faced a slightly tougher schedule this season (45th SOS on KenPom) than Villanova (70th SOS on KenPom. The Trojans also have the advantage of not going through a coaching change. I can see this game being decided in the final minute, so I will take the points.

NIT Super Play

Rating: 4 Units

Oddsmakers are making Chattanooga an underdog yet again and we’re going to keep grabbing the points. Chattanooga has not only won every game this tournament as an underdog, but the Mocs have won each of their last eight games as an underdog. Chattanooga has lost just one game since January 25 and is 23-12 ATS on the season overall. UC Irvine is playing winning ball as well and is probably the more talented team overall, especially with its top-40 scoring defense. Still, Chattanooga has thrived in the underdog role time and time again. I’ll keep grabbing the points with Chattanooga.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trail Blazers and Raptors keep fighting, despite neither having anything to play for at this stage of the season. Oddsmakers keep disrespecting the Raptors with these lines, and all they do is cover numbers. The Raptors are 46-29-1 ATS on the season, which makes them the second-best cover team in the NBA behind only the Thunder. The underdog has covered seven of the last 10 games between the Trail Blazers and Raptors. The Trail Blazers have lost 25 times on the road. Give me the Raptors and the points, something we’ve done a lot this season. 

Rating: 2 Units

The underdogs have won three of the Nets' last four games. While the Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games as favorites after coming off overtime and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games after coming off overtime. Additionall, the Nets have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Barclays Center when playing with a rest advantage.

Rating: 2 Units

The Grizzlies are still playing without Brandon Clarke and Vince Williams Jr, while the Heat have ruled out Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love once again. The Grizzlies are as healthy as they've been all season, so it's hard to point a finger at why they've been struggling so much lately. In contrast, the Heat are still banged up, but they have sprung to life with six impressive wins in a row and are coming into this one fresh off an upset win over the red-hot Celtics. I get why the Grizzlies are slight favorites on the road, but the Heat are the team playing the better basketball at the moment, and I think they can pull off another upset at home in this one.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pelicans have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against the Clippers and have covered the spread in each of their last eight games against the Clippers following a home win. While the Clippers have lost four of their last six games as favorites against Western Conference opponents and have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against Pelicans teams that held a losing record.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat are still missing Duncan Robinson, Andrew Wiggins, and Kevin Love, while the Celtics are keeping eyes on Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday, who are all questionable. The Heat have been playing much better basketball lately, but they have lost all three meetings against the Celtics this season, and none of them were close. Both teams are missing some key players, which makes this a bit tricky, but the Celtics have owned the Heat this season, and I think that continues in this one with the Celtics cruising at home.

Rating: 2 Units

The Hornets have won each of their last three games as underdogs against the Pacers and have covered the spread in each of their last six games against Central Division opponents. While the Pacers have lost five of their last six games against Southeast Division opponents following a win and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against Southeast Division opponents following a win.

Rating: 2 Units

The Kings have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents and have failed to cover the spread in 17 of their last 21 games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back. While the Wizards have won four of their last five home games against the Kings following a home loss and have covered the spread in three of their last four home games against the Kings following a home loss.

Rating: 2 Units

Loyola-Chicago is probably the more talented team and is a program that’s used to tournament success, so the Ramblers are going to get the love from oddsmakers. However, the value is with Chattanooga and the free bucket, as the Mocs have lost just once since January 25. Chattanooga is one of the better offensive teams in the country, as it’s a top-60 scoring offense and top-40 offensive field goal percentage. Chattanooga has been an underdog three times in this tournament and is still here. That includes scoring 109 points against Middle Tennessee. Chattanooga is 7-0 ATS and SU in its last seven games as an underdog !!!! Chattanooga is 22-12 ATS on the season overall. I’m grabbing the bucket with Chattanooga.

Rating: 2 Units

The road team has won five of the last six games between the 76ers and Knicks. While the Knicks have lost three of their last six games as home favorites against Eastern Conference opponents following a win and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against Eastern Conference opponents following a win. While the 76ers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine night games at Madison Square Garden following a home loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Trail Blazers have ruled out Scoot Henderson and Jerami Grant, with Anfernee Simons listed as questionable, while the Hawks are still playing without Larry Nance Jr and Clint Capela. The Trail Blazers are coming into this one riding a four-game losing streak, while the Hawks have won eight of their last 12 games, including wins over the Warriors and the Bucks. It's hard to split these two squads at the moment, as I wouldn't be shocked if the Trail Blazers win in a close one like they did back on Nov. 17, where they beat the Hawks by 114-110. However, the Hawks looked great in their last game, and I think they can get their revenge at home in this spot.

Rating: 2 Units

The Bucks have lost four of their last five games as home favorites after losing as favorites and have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against Western Conference opponents after losing as favorites. While the Suns have won each of their last five night games against Central Division opponents that held a winning record. Additionally, the road team has covered the spread in seven of the Bucks' last eight games.

Rating: 2 Units

Both of these teams were able to escape with close victories in their last game and will look to advance to the NIT Championship with a win here. North Texas continues to win with great defense and they have allowed 66 points or fewer in 17 straight games. UC Irvine played very solid defense against a great UAB offense in their last game, but I don’t see them having a ton of luck in this game. This North Texas defense is going to be the best that UC Irvine has faced this season and I think the Mean Green will really slow things down here, which will throw UC Irvine off. Take North Texas to win. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Jazz have lost each of their last 15 road games following a loss and have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games. While the home team has won five of the Hornets' last six games. Additionally, the Hornets have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Rating: 2 Units

The Heat have lost each of their last seven Monday road games and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven Monday road games. While the Wizards have won four of their last seven games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents following a loss and have covered the spread in four of their last five games as home underdogs following a loss.

Rating: 2 Units

The Suns are hard to trust because one night they play with effort, and the next night they don’t defend and go through the motions. You never know what team you’re getting. The Rockets have won nine of their last 10 games and are the same team pretty much both on the road and at home. With all of that said, the Suns have shown more signs of life lately and they’re in the thick of the play-in conversation. At home, the Suns need to take advantage of games like this if they’re going to sneak into the tournament. The underdog has covered six of the last eight games between the Rockets and Suns. I’ll take a shot with the Suns and the free bucket at home.

Rating: 2 Units

In five of the past six head-to-head meetings, San Antonio was the team that beat the spread. The Spurs have also gone 4-1-0 ATS in their previous five, and 3-0-0 ATS in their last three home games. Golden State has gone four straight games without beating the spread. They're 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10. The Spurs' strong ball security will help them compete against the Warriors' defense again. San Antonio's defense held Golden State under 100 once and has proven they can keep the Warriors in check. Golden State hasn't shown up on the road lately. Even if they win this game, expect the Spurs to beat the spread.

Rating: 2 Units

While both teams are still fighting for playoff positioning, this one has more significance for the Wolves. The Wolves are within a half-game of the sixth spot in the conference but currently sit in 8th place. If the team fails to jump up, they'll be subject to the play-in round in the Western Conference. The Pistons currently sit in the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference, a game up on the sixth-place Bucks. The Wolves have the edge defensively and could have an added advantage if Cunningham is unable to suit up due to his calf injury. The Wolves have won seven of the last ten matchups with the Pistons. Expect the Wolves to be fully motivated and take care of business at home against the Pistons.

Rating: 3 Units

I was going to lean toward Auburn, but the line seems thick enough for the Spartans to get in there. You could make a good case either way here, though; it’ll be a great matchup if both teams play well. The Tigers dispatched a very good Michigan team on Friday (despite a relatively slow start), hitting a 48-33 rebounding advantage along the way. The shooting wasn’t spectacular for either team (both below 40 percent) and each squad had 15 turnovers in a pretty sloppy outing ball-control-wise. In short, it wasn’t a pretty win but Auburn gutted it out. The Tigers have now scored 78 or more points in all three national tournament outings. As for Michigan State, they shot much better (50 percent) and went a nice 19-of-22 (86.4 percent) from the line in their win over Ole Miss on Friday. The Spartans did get out-rebounded 33-29 though, and had 10 turnovers for 13 Ole Miss points. Michigan State has 71 or more points in eight straight games (a 7-1 run), so we should see a pretty healthy total here. Michigan State needs to get it going on the boards but I like them slightly better. It’ll be a great game to watch regardless. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers are still shorthanded with Jordan Miller and Kawhi Leonard both ruled out, while the Cavaliers have ruled out Ty Jerome for this one. The Cavaliers expectedly open as favorites at home where they are 31-5 on the season, but the last time these two teams met, it was the Clippers who romped to a 132-119 win back on Mar. 18. The loss of Leonard might be tough to overcome for the Clippers, but I could easily see the Cavaliers resting some players this late in the regular season. I see why the Cavaliers are favorites, but I actually think the Clippers can surprise them again and at least get the cover in this spot.

Rating: 2 Units

UH held on to beat Purdue on Friday night, as junior guard Milos Uzan scored the game-winning layup with 0.9 seconds left. The Cougars made only two baskets over the final eight minutes, squandering a ten-point lead. They shot 37.7 percent from the field, including 9-for-23 (39.1%) from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 38-29, collecting 16 offensive rebounds.  The Volunteers are 8-2 straight-up in their last ten games. UT won and covered against UK, getting its revenge after losing twice to the Wildcats during the regular season. The Vols led by 15 at halftime and by as many as 19, never trailing by more than one point. They shot 50.9 percent overall, won the rebounding battle 34-24, and scored 38 points in the paint.

Rating: 3 Units

Any believer in the Law of Averages has to side with Duke in this game, as there will surely be a regression in the outside shooting from Alabama. The Tide were on fire last game, they made 25 threes while shooting 49% from deep, this performance is historic, and will not be repeated, especially considering the defense they are facing. BYU was ranked 82nd in defensive efficiency, they are not strong at defending the outside shot, but now the Tide are facing a different type of defensive threat. Duke is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency, they will not allow Bama to run up and down the floor shooting open threes as they did last game. The Blue Devils have length and athleticism all over the floor and will be able to contest deep shots and bring Bama's three point efficiency down. Bama is not stellar on defense either, and do not have a defensive matchup for Flagg, as he is faster than Nelson and bigger than all of their guards. Duke's talent will rise to the top and get the cover here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Mavericks are still keeping eyes on Kai Jones and PJ Washington, who are both questionable, while the Bulls have ruled out Lonzo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu once again. The Mavericks are starting to get some players back from injury, and it has been translating into wins for them. But it's the Bulls who come into this game as the hotter team after they came back against the Lakers to keep their win streak alive. The Mavericks are more than capable of pulling off the minor upset on the road, but it's hard to go past the Bulls, who have quietly been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past two weeks.

Rating: 2 Units

I seriously considered grabbing the points with the Pacers because they’re an elite offensive team when right, and they can hang with any team in the league. We just saw the Pacers score 162 points!!! With that said, the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, and you often don’t know which team is showing up night to night. The Thunder also have the best cover percentage in the NBA at 69.5 percent. The Thunder are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a double-digit favorite. Even when lines look thick and a bit off, OKC is the most trustworthy bet in the NBA. No reason to jump off the bandwagon now.

Rating: 2 Units

Another NBA line that doesn’t make sense. I know the Lakers have been rocky these last couple of weeks, but they’re also coming off a brutal loss to the Bulls, and a team led by Luka and LeBron will be eager to get that nasty taste out of their mouth. The Grizzlies are still down key players, and they just fired their coach a couple of weeks before the playoffs start. The Grizzlies could easily fall apart, as this is uncharted territory. You don’t see coaches fired at this stage of the season. At least with good teams. I kind of expect the Lakers to win this game outright, but I’ll grab the free bucket for insurance. 

Tournament Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

These teams have met only once, and it was back in 2018 when Texas Tech won 69-66. Florida proved to be one of the most dominant teams in the NCAA tournament so far and is on a nine-game winning streak, so the Red Radiers will have a mountain to climb in order to advance to the Final Four. The Gators are excellent against the spread this year, and they have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 32 games. I believe that reaching the Elite 8 is the maximum for Texas Tech, and it has a slim chance to participate in the Final Four. Florida is better offensively and are in top form, so I am backing the Gators to win and cover.

Rating: 2 Units

Purdue managed to handle High Point and McNeese in the first two rounds. The Boilermakers have a much stiffer challenge here dealing with a Cougars team that is a veteran squad that has plenty of experience in big games. Houston leads the nation in scoring defense and they are the nation’s top team shooting from the perimeter on the offensive end. This isn’t the same Purdue team of the last couple of years: while Kaufman-Renn is a solid low post presence, he won’t get the clean looks he had in the first two rounds. Houston turns this game into a slog and grinds Purdue into the ground to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

Rating: 2 Units

The Warriors will be eager to rebound from an embarrassing effort against the Heat, but this line is a bit rich when we’re not sure if Curry is going to play. The Warriors have issues creating offense without their best player, and they’re 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Warriors are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a double-digit favorite. The Pelicans have nothing to play for, and they’re still down many key players, so I understand the line. I’m still not laying this number with the Warriors in their current form and how they’ve handled big lines all season. Give me the Pelicans and the points.

Rating: 3 Units

Tennessee has been the more consistent team this season and has the defense that should provide the edge. However, Kentucky is one of the better offensive teams in the country and has beaten Tennessee twice the season. The Vols struggled to find an offensive rhythm in those games against Kentucky. Also, the underdog has outright won each of the last seven games between Kentucky and Tennessee and eight of the last 10 games overall. You have to go back to February 2022 the last time a favorite has won a game between these SEC rivals. It's not easy to beat the same team three times in a season, but this season and history overall suggest Kentucky and the points are the play tonight.   

Sweet 16 Tournament Crusher

Rating: 4 Units

Michigan State rolls into this matchup after winning 10 of their last 11 games and running away with the Big Ten regular season title, but this will be the most athletic team they have faced in at least a few months. The Spartans started slow against Bryant and New Mexico last weekend, but can’t afford to do that here. Ole Miss was very competitive in the SEC this year and they shot the ball extremely well last weekend in their upset win against Iowa State. This should be a great matchup between two very good teams and I think either side can win, so I will take the points with Ole Miss, as I think the MSU three point shooting will be the deciding factor.

Rating: 3 Units

Offensively, Texas Tech is averaging 80.8 points per game, which ranks 32nd nationally. Defensively, they allow 67.6 points per game, which is 54th in the nation. The Red Raiders shoot with 46.9% from the field (63rd), and with 37.1% from beyond the arc (22nd). The Red Raiders shoot with 76.4% from the free-throw line (41st), and are grabbing 33.2 rebounds per game (111th). Consider that Arkansas has won each of its last eight games against non-Conference opponents.

Rating: 2 Units

The Kings have struggled to defend all season. Over their previous 10 outings, the Kings have been allowing a whopping 124.0 points per 100 possessions. Sacramento will have a nice opportunity to bounce back on Thursday, as the Trail Blazers have been inconsistent lately, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Portland has been scoring 112.9 points per 100 possessions over its last 10 games overall. The Blazers have allowed 251 points over their past two showings, and they will struggle to contain the Kings in the paint, so I expect Sacramento’s offense to make a difference. Domantas Sabonis and Jonas Valanciunas will dominate at the low post and control the glass. The Kings are one of the best rebounding units in the NBA. On the other side, Portland is third in the league in offensive rebound percentage (28.9%) and 28th in defensive rebound percentage (72.4%).  

Sweet 16 Play of the Day

Rating: 5 Units

I’m staying with Duke. The Blue Devils are a force to be reckoned with these days, and they’re tearing right through the schedule. Duke dispatched a good Baylor team without too much difficulty in their last outing, hitting an excellent 64.4 percent from the field, 54.5 percent (12-of-22) from outside and 82.6 percent (19-of-23) from the line. The only real blemish was the 32-29 rebounding deficit (18-3 offensive), but a lot of that came in relative garbage time.  That makes 73 or more points in 13 straight games (all wins) for Duke. As for Arizona, they were able to power their way past a pesky Oregon squad thanks to 45.5 percent shooting and a 44-37 rebounding edge in their last outing. The Wildcats have posted 86 or more points in four of the last five games (all four were wins), so this one’s got the potential for a very high total. In the end I like Duke to fend off the Wildcats, though.

Rating: 2 Units

The Rockets are back to racking up the wins again, but they’re just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. The Rockets also lost to the Nuggets at home without Jokic. As I’ve said a lot lately, the Rockets are a young team still learning how to deal with expectations. The Rockets can still play with their food from time to time, and they’ve lost twice this season as a double-digit favorite. The Jazz are in full tank mode and aren’t a team you should be eager to back, but this line is a bit thick for the Rockets on the road. Also, a look ahead spot for the Rockets with the Suns, Lakers, and Thunder on deck. It’s Jazz and the points or pass for me.

Rating: 2 Units

The LA Lakers are going to be favored for obvious reasons, as they’re supposed to be the better team, and they’re a public side, so their lines are often inflated. However, the Lakers played last night and are coming off an emotional last-second victory, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to the quick turnaround. The Bulls keep getting disrespected by oddsmakers, and they’re 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Bulls have outright won six of their last eight games as an underdog. The Bulls also just beat the Lakers on the road a few days ago by 31 points. We’ve been on the Bulls a lot during this winning stretch, and there’s no reason to turn back now. Give me the Bulls and the points.

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings side with the Thunder which is the play we’re going to recommend here going 22-11-2 as a home favorite and 12-2 ATS across their last 14 games. The Grizzlies on the other hand are just 3-16 ATS across their last 19 games with this being the last of a five game road trip for them. Yes, Memphis did put up 140 points at Utah last time out but in the first three games of their road trip averaged just 110 ppg and two of those games were against the Kings and Trail Blazers. The Thunder have won by an average of 16 ppg during their seven-game run and we don’t see a reason why a blowout doesn’t happen here again tonight, especially getting a marquee piece of their starting lineup back in Jal. Williams. Take the Thunder to keep rolling at home.

Rating: 2 Units

These teams have met just once before, and it was in 2021 when Maryland won. The Terrapins were lucky in the previous round, and in my opinion, they deserved to lose to Colorado State, so I believe this is the end of the road for them. The Gators did have trouble with UConn, but that's understandable given that the Huskies came to the tournament as back-to-back champions. Florida has a fantastic ATS record this year and covered the Spread in 23 of its last 31 games. I am backing the Gators to win and cover here.

Rating: 2 Units

The Wizards are still missing a host of players, including Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Khris Middleton, while the Pacers are still slightly shorthanded with Isaiah Jackson still out. The Pacers have been the team in better form; they are almost fully healthy, and they've already beaten the Wizards twice this season. However, the last meeting was back on February 12, and the Wizards were good enough to force the game into overtime before they lost by four points in the end. The line is hefty for this one, so while I like the Pacers to get the comfortable win at home, I think the Wizards will make pests of themselves again and keep the margin to single digits.

Rating: 2 Units

Alabama is the more talented team and more battle-tested, so it’s going to be favored. However, this has the feeling of being a high-scoring scoring back and forth game that should be decided in the final five minutes. Alabama was the top-scoring team in the country this season but its pace produced a defense that was 356th in scoring allowed. BYU has more balance to its attack and that includes an offense that’s 25th in scoring and top-20 in field goal percentage. I don’t see either team getting many stops. I’ll take a shot with BYU and the points, as this feels like a game where the team with the ball last wins. This will be entertaining from start to finish. Give me BYU and the points. 

Rating: 2 Units

Our power ratings side with Boston here, but we’re going to put the points in our pocket with the home Suns. Boston is 5-1 straight up without Tatum this season but three of those wins came against the Trail Blazers, Jazz and Nets with the Suns coming over decisive straight up wins over the Cavaliers and Bucks. The Celtics current winning streak also hasn’t come against that impressive of competition with wins over the Heat, Nets twice, Jazz, Trail Blazers and Kings. The Celtics and Suns rank ninth and tenth in defensive rating across their last five games so let’s take Phoenix to keep it within a basket or two at home against a shorthanded Celtics team.

Rating: 2 Units

The Nuggets will have a mountain to climb should Nikola Jokic remain on the sidelines. They managed to beat the Rockets behind Jamal Murray’s 39-point display, but the clash against the Bulls showed Denver’s shortcomings once more. Denver’s defense has been pretty bad of late. The Nuggets have been yielding a staggering 122.4 points per 100 possessions over their previous 10 games overall. The Bucks, on the other side, have recorded a plus-2.0 net rating over their last 10 outings, yielding 112.7 points per 100 possessions. I’m backing the Bucks because of their defense. Even if Damian Lillard doesn’t suit up, the Bucks have enough weapons to keep it close and eventually beat the Nuggets. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, while the Nuggets are 3-10 ATS in their previous 13. Denver hasn’t beaten the number in eight straight showings at home.

Rating: 2 Units

According to BartTorvik.com, UAB is rated 89th overall on the road, while UC Irvine is rated 122nd at home. Playing on the road hasn't been an issue for the Blazers in the NIT, as they've secured outright wins as six- and seven-point underdogs, respectively. Those road victories came against Saint Joseph's (rated 98th at home) and Santa Clara (51st at home). On the other side, UC Irvine's wins came over Northern Colorado (105th on the road) and Jacksonville State (98th on the road). Based on these resumes, I believe UAB is capable of pulling off another road upset due to their two way strengths of star play of Yaxel Lendeborg.

Rating: 2 Units

The Pacers are still missing Isaiah Jackson, while the Lakers are expecting to be near full strength for this contest, with Rui Hachimura back in the lineup. The Lakers are as healthy as they've been for a long while, but they still open as the road underdogs, as the Pacers have been on a tear lately. These teams last met on Feb. 8, and it was the Lakers who won by 124-117 behind a career-high 45 points from Austin Reaves. What made that win more impressive was that the Lakers didn't have James or Doncic for that encounter. A lot has changed since then, and the Lakers are still a work in progress, so I am looking at the Pacers to exact their revenge with a narrow win and cover at home in this spot.

Rating: 2 Units

Brooklyn has lost seven of its last eight games, including a 120-101 home loss to Dallas on Monday. Assuming Brooklyn closes as the favorite, this will be the Nets' first game as a home favorite since the All-Star break. They've closed as a road favorite twice since then and lost both games outright. Toronto has gone 12-3 against the spread in its last 15 road games. Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poltl have been ruled out for the Raptors, but RJ Barrett is expected to play. Brooklyn's Cameron Johnson has been ruled out.

Rating: 2 Units

Kent State has been a solid road team this season, going 10-5 as the visiting team, entering this contest. The Golden Flashes have a stiff challenge here in the Ramblers though, given that Loyola Chicago is 16-1 at home on the season. The Ramblers’ lone home loss came to VCU back on January 4. Both teams are average on the offensive end of the floor and above average when it comes to playing defense. Kent State is the better free-throw shooting team and that could keep them in the contest. Loyola Chicago should win the game but it’s a close one: if you’re playing the moneyline, the Ramblers are the call but with the spread, take the points and the Golden Flashes.