Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-21 | Pistons v. Kings -7 | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Kings beat the Pistons only 110-107 at home in late February, but Marvin Bagley, III was still weighing them down at that point. Sacramento was ambushed by the return of D’Angelo Russell in Minnesota on Monday night but has had two days since to shake it off and prepare for what should be a must-win game in their minds, given that they’re still only 2 games behind Golden State for the #10 play in spot in the West. The Pistons are essentially out of contention in the East, and 6-21 SU on the road. |
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04-08-21 | Cavs -4 v. Thunder | 129-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points, 9 assists, Al Horford 16 points, 8 rebounds, when OKC walloped the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 117-101. Immediately after that game, Cleveland won four straight games. New or old faces for them now, who weren’t playing in that loss, include Kevin Love, Taurean Prince, Larry Nance, Jr., Dean Wade, Isaiah Hartenstein, Matthew Dellavadova. Not making Thunderous noises for the home team tonight: the aforementioned stars of the earlier meeting, Gilgeous-Alexander and Horford |
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04-08-21 | Bulls -3.5 v. Raptors | 122-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto was life and death to beat the 17-32 Wizards on Monday and then could not stave off the Lakers on Tuesday. L.A. was playing without their two best players and the Lakers won despite turning it over 21 times. Toronto used to be a force when teams had to travel to Canada but now playing their home games in Tampa, the Raptors are just 11-13 at ‘home’. Chicago took care of the Raptors last month and they were horrible from long range shooting just 27% from beyond the arc. The Bulls played the right way and in that win in March as a total of 9 Chicago players got to double figures. The Bulls also had 35 assists. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units People who go around saying that the Utah Jazz have been in the process of peaking too soon should stay consistent and pick the #2 team behind them in the Western Conference to beat them. You know those people – oh, wait, they is us! The Suns are suddenly only 2.5 games out of first place in the West, eyeing “NBA best record” territory. They’re a good defensive team, on their home floor, and they’ve already beaten the Jazz 106-95 in Utah. What’s not to like? |
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04-07-21 | Mavs -11 v. Rockets | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Experienced, trustworthy, productive guards are lacking on the home underdog, who happens to have the NBA’s worst pointspread record (16-34 ATS, 32.0%). Should you choose to go their way, against a decent bottom-feeder of a road favorite 7-3 SU last 10 games, who was also good enough to beat league-leading Utah the other night – as we expected – then good luck to you, for you shall probably need it. |
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04-07-21 | Pelicans v. Nets -8.5 | 111-139 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the third game in four nights for the Pelicans. Atlanta hosted New Orleans on Tuesday and Zion Williamson did his part with a monster game but the Pelicans missed Brandon Ingram in the defeat. New Orleans is 3 and 6 in the second of back-to-back games this season. And they lost to some challenged clubs like Houston and Chicago. Brooklyn had won 4 in a row before losing to Chicago last Sunday. James Harden tested his injured hamstring against the Knicks on Monday but he only lasted a few minutes before leaving the game for good and he will miss extended time. In that Monday win Jeff Green had a ‘glory days’ night with 23 points, 4 boards, an assist, a block and a couple of long-range bombs. Brooklyn can throw a lot of bodies at the Pelicans big men with Jeff Green, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan among others. The Nets are also expected to have Kevin Durant set for this game. |
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04-06-21 | Bucks -6 v. Warriors | 121-122 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s a home invasion in the first degree, with Milwaukee having set up an Oakland base camp in full case-the-joint mode before the Warriors had even tipped it off 2,800 miles away in Atlanta on Sunday night. The Bucks are 3-1 on a six-game trip so far. A win would guarantee a winning Western excursion, always a good goal for a good team to achieve; Warriors have lost 12 of their last 16 and they haven’t been tanking games so they can surprise the Bucks with a revenge spanking for the 138-99 loss suffered in Milwaukee on Christmas Day. Sure, they might do it, but they haven’t been saving themselves for it. |
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04-06-21 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Off 16- and 30-point wins on this floor vs. the perpetually addled Rockets and the suddenly semi-depleted Hornets, the Celtics could be in for a rude awakening as the healthy 76ers come to town with Joel Embiid in his second game back from his mid-season vacation spent while his teammates were going through the motions out West and actually, not disgracing themselves in the least. But they disgraced themselves when he sat out their second of home back-to-backs against Memphis the other night, shooting 8-for-34 on three-pointers in defeat. More than likely, he’ll be back and off that loss, and falling out of first place by a half game, with the memory of being outsted from the post-season by the Celtics still there… |
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04-05-21 | Jazz -4.5 v. Mavs | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Dallas has lost twice to Utah so far this season and neither game was pretty for the Texans. They came out flat in both contests and the ball stuck in both games with 22 assists in one loss and 20 in the other. That is not fluke. Only three teams have fewer assists nightly than the Mavericks. Utah figures to want this game with the next pair back-toback on the road against teams currently in solid playoff position. Utah just held Orlando to 2 for 23 from deep in the Jazz win on Saturday. The average winning margin of Utah’s victories over Dallas this season is 16 points. |
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04-05-21 | Knicks v. Nets -5 | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Second of back-to-backs for the Nets while the Knicks are rested. But the Knicks, as you know, don’t beat good teams. Brooklyn must be a good team, because they are 34-16, tied for first place in the Eastern Conference with Philadelphia. We figured the Nets for a loss yesterday in what appeared to have been, and was, a circled game for the semi-desperate Bulls when tonight’s no rest, intra-city date was on deck for Brooklyn. The Knicks used the Pistons for false confidence the other night in New York’s most dominant win of the season, 125-81. They are due back on planet Earth. |
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04-04-21 | Pelicans v. Rockets +6 | 122-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockets have some pick-and-roll finishers now, with Christian Wood back from injury and Kelly Olynyk acquired via trade. Head coach Stephen Silas wants to experiment with both on the floor for short segments, which doesn’t exactly strike fear in anyone’s heart but could be something that confuses Stan the Man and his lazy, 7-14 SU on-the-road Pelicans enough to matter. A coach who cannot manage his personnel so that he can put a competitive team on the floor against an opponent playing an eighth straight road game (Atlanta, 23-point home loss for New Orleans despite no Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari and John Collins!) should be fired on the spot. That won’t happen. But it’s on the list of reasons why we think that Van Gundy is the worst. |
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04-04-21 | Hornets v. Celtics -8.5 | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Charlotte is just really banged-up with LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward out for quite some time and Malik Monk out of action with a sprained ankle. In their last 3 defeats, the Hornets failed to reach 100 points. If Boston is going to make a move, they have to get this game against Charlotte. Five of the next 6 Celtics games are against teams currently in position to make the playoffs. Even though Boston is clinging to the 8th spot in the East, they are only a game and a half of out of the 4th seed, now held by Charlotte |
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04-04-21 | Nets v. Bulls +3.5 | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls had 58 points in the paint through three quarters at Utah the other night, with no fear of Rudy Gobert. It was a good workout in advance of this game, in which Brooklyn’s interior defense, patched together on the fly after several trades, will be tested. Chicago has yet to win (0-4 SU) since acquiring Nikola Vucevic from the Magic but they are off 5- and 7-point losses at on-fire Western Conference clubs Phoenix and Utah, despite playing without Zach Lavine (at Phoenix), and Garrett Temple (at Utah). Vucevic has had 22-14, 28-12 and 34-10 games against Brooklyn already this season. |
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04-03-21 | Thunder v. Blazers -11.5 | 85-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Men vs. Boys, Part II for Portland shortly after they did a number on the Pistons in Detroit, with last night’s loss to the Bucks in between to angry them up. The Blazers are a now-healthy, veteran group that has won 60.4% of their games. The Thunder is a young group headed nowhere special with its best scorer out, its veteran “leader” Al Horford shut down for the season, another alleged veteran leader (George Hill) traded, Lu Dort banged up. They play a second of road back-to-backs coming out of Phoenix last night, where, given our ***BEST BET on Phoenix, we expected them to get killed. They sure enough did, 140-113, losing two more quarters after the Suns’ 43-13 first. |
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04-03-21 | Magic v. Jazz -14.5 | 91-137 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Few opponents take Orlando seriously, which poses a problem for handicappers/bettors. They are 4-0 ATS since trading away three mainstays and using a starting lineup including guys like Chasson Randle, Chuma Okeke, Khem Birch and Dwight (Save Our) Bacon. When some opposing coaches see them coming, they say, ‘Oh, I think I’ll rest my leading scorer, and my second leading scorer… and maybe one or two other guys! However, Utah rested Donovan Mitchell earlier in the week. Aha! The Magic shot 5-for-25 on threes yet still won outright by 5 points in their last game, at New Orleans, who showed up with essentially nobody. No such luck here, probably. |
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04-03-21 | Cavs v. Heat -12 | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland may not know if they are coming or going. They just went 1 and 3 on the road, came home to Ohio to lose to Philly, and now travel for this game and 2 more on the highway. When Cleveland lost to Miami last month they were held to 29% from beyond the arc and JaVale McGee was 8 for 10 from the floor. McGee has moved on to Denver. The Cavaliers are dead last in the league in points per game. Miami is coming around. They have won three in a row and Victor Oladipo started in his Miami debut and it’s only a matter of time before he feels more comfortable in his new surroundings. Youngsters Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro have also heated up. They were 16 for 28 from the floor in the win over Golden State on Thursday. |
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04-03-21 | Wolves v. 76ers -12 | 113-122 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Going into Friday’s game vs. Memphis, Minnesota had won 4 of 10 games and 3 of the wins came against teams that are currently in the playoff pictures. A major problem for the Wolves is the matador defense they play as they give up 117 a game. Minnesota is 3 and 6 this season in the second of back-to-back games. In the Friday game Minnesota was horrible in the second half in the facile Memphis victory. Philly just went 4 and 2 on a road trip and the losses came against the current 4th and 5th seeds in the West. The Sixers kept their foot on the gas beating Cleveland on Thursday as they won every quarter. They were victorious despite the fact 2 Philly starters were just 3 for 16 from the floor. |
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04-02-21 | Thunder v. Suns -13 | 103-140 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units OKC head coach Mark Daigneault: "Where we are vulnerable is in details, and it shows up on both ends of the floor, and it takes time." Phoenix is the NBA’s most underrated team. They have the best pointspread percentage (31-16, 66.0% ATS) to prove it. They probably want to right a wrong: a 102-97 home loss to OKC, in which Al Horford had 21 points, 11 rebounds, Shai Gilgeous Alexander 21 points, and the Suns had a 10-point second quarter playing without Devin Booker. Horford has been "shut down for the season," SGA is out injured. Booker should be in. |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | 114-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Charlotte was in Brooklyn on Thursday and they must have not been in the right frame of mind. The Hornets scored just 11 points in the first quarter and that doomed their fate. These teams splits the 2 games this season in January. In the Indy loss to Charlotte two of the Pacers starters were a combined 6 for 18 from the floor and the Pacers bench was outscored. Miami visited Indy on Wednesday and Indy was right there with 12 minutes to go but they lost the last stanza by 7 points and the game by 5. |
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04-02-21 | Mavs -6 v. Knicks | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Inconsistency has plagued the Knicks. They beat Milwaukee 6 nights ago and then they lost to the 12 and 36 Timberwolves last Wednesday. Both R. J. Barrett and Derrick Rose are iffy for New York with ankle issues. Dallas has won 2 of their last 3 games and the loss last Saturday was in the second of a back-to-back game when the Mavericks could not handle Zion Williamson. Look for Kristaps Porzingas to be primed to stick it to his former club. |
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04-01-21 | Hornets +2.5 v. Nets | 89-111 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At #4 in the East, the Hornets are closer to #14 Toronto (6.5 games in front of the Raptors) than to #1 tie Brooklyn and Philadelphia (7.5 games behind). They beat the Nets at home, 106-104, in the third game of the season. ""We have to treat every team like it’s Brooklyn," Gordon Hayward said afterwards. "We had this sense of urgency." They figure to treat this opponent like it’s Brooklyn. Because it’s Brooklyn. The Hornets are 14-6 ATS as a road underdog; Nets are 2-7 ATS last nine games, during which their only two covers have been when they were +2 underdogs at Portland and Indiana. As the chalk in this span, they’re 0-6 ATS. |
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04-01-21 | Wizards -3 v. Pistons | 91-120 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Detroit has lost to some bad teams this season like Houston, Cleveland and Orlando. The Pistons try to defend but their offense kills them. They are 25th in scoring and rebounding. Detroit just lost to this club on Saturday despite Bradley Beal having to leave the game. Russell Westbrook just took over the game. Detroit hosted Portland on Wednesday and after competing for 12 minutes, the Pistons faded into sunset in the loss. Washington should have an edge in the middle with Detroit’s Mason Plumlee going against Alex Len and Robin Lopez. In the loss to Charlotte on Tuesday Alex and Robin combined for 26 points and 16 rebounds. |
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04-01-21 | 76ers -9.5 v. Cavs | 114-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A first-place team 32-15 overall (but 0-2 vs. Cleveland!) has lost the last two games of a six-game road trip in Denver and L.A., to a couple of 60%+ straight-up winners. The 76ers are 3-2 on this trip. Good teams take care of business in situations such as this. Doc Rivers was looking at his watch after the first quarter in Denver Tuesday night with the scoreboard 43-22 against his team, and let the bench players take it from there. The Cavaliers have used 22 different starting lineups in 47 games, and were without Larry Nance, Jr., Jarrett Allen, Matthew Dellavadova for the 39-point loss at Utah. Kevin Love didn’t play, either, but does he count anymore? |
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03-31-21 | Bucks -8.5 v. Lakers | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Like we said earlier, no good team ‘wants’ to lose three straight, but the Bucks have. They didn’t ‘want’ to lose five straight in January, but they did. They don’t ‘want’ to lose a fourth straight game tonight, and with the Lakers 2-4 SU since Lebron went down while Lebrow was already out, they probably won’t. The Lakers have scored 100 and 96 points beating downtrodden Cleveland and Orlando in their last two games. You’re probably aware that a 98 ppg average would be last in the NBA, which is why they were able to beat two depleted teams that are scraping Eastern Conference bottom. Over the last 10 days, which is five games for L.A., only Cleveland is averaging fewer than the Lakers’ 1.0 points per possession. The Bucks have revenge for 113-106 home loss when the Lakers were fully represented (A. Davis and L. James each played 38 minutes) and fully energized in the first game of an Eastern road trip. |
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03-31-21 | Mavs +2.5 v. Celtics | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Jaylen Brown missed the Monday game when the Celts lost to New Orleans. Jayson Tatum had 34 points but he takes a lot of tough shots and Boston allowed the Pelicans to shoot 51% from beyond the arc. Dallas has a number of quality wins against teams like Brooklyn, the Clips and Denver. The Texans beat Boston last month in the second of a back-to-back game when the Big Three from Boston all had excellent games. Luca Doncic returned from a back issue on Monday and he put in a good all-around performance. The important thing is that he only had to play 28 minutes. |
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03-31-21 | Heat +0.5 v. Pacers | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indy won both of the games this season against Miami but in one of the wins they got a bit of a break when 2 of the Miami starters were only 4 for 20 from the floor. In D.C. on Monday the Pacers could not keep up with the potent Washington offense. Trevor Ariza is starting to feel comfortable with Miami and he has championship credentials. The Heat were in New York on Monday and although he was rusty, Goran Dragic was back in action in the victory. Miami held New York to 28% from long range. |
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03-31-21 | Blazers -7.5 v. Pistons | 124-101 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After completing the 3-0 sweep of the Toronto franchise that fired him the year before it won the NBA title, Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey probably won’t have the screws too tight for this next affair. It’s a young team with the East’s worst record and young teams tend to be the most volatile in their form, anyway. The Blazers attempt to sweep a four-game Eastern road trip in what amounts to a Men vs. Boys scenario and the men don’t have to win by much to accomplish the task for their backers as well as themselves. These were the types of match-ups that Portland needed to win to stay in a good playoff place before McCollum and Nurkic came back. Now that they’re both back, it’s a game in which they should cruise. |
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03-30-21 | Magic v. Clippers -11 | 103-96 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s the second of back-to-backs for the host Clippers (vs. rested Magic) after they entertained a more lucrative opponent, Milwaukee. But L.A. head coach Tyronne Lue is on record as saying that back-to-backs test your manhood. His players have taken his words to heart: 8-0 SU and ATS with no rest. The Magic relieved themselves of 59 starting points in their recent trades. They are out West on a wing and some prayers as non-miracle working head coach Steve Clifford attempts to figure it all out, while by no means safe from becoming an eventual victim of the ol’ teardown process himself. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets -3.5 v. Wizards | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Washington had lost 8 of 10 before hosting the Pacers on Monday. Bradley Beal didn’t play Monday but Washington won a taxing game behind a monster game from Russell Westbrook. Charlotte had a pretty rough road trip starting a couple of weeks ago when they beat Spurs in their final road game of that stretch to avoid going 0 for 4 on the journey. They had won 3 in a row before losing to Phoenix in overtime on Sunday. When the Hornets beat this team last month they won the battle of the boards and got efficient games out of both Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. |
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03-29-21 | Mavs -11 v. Thunder | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mavericks held the Thunder to 78 points on March 3. On March 11, at OKC, in the second of back-to-backs after having beaten San Antonio at home the prior night, head coach Rick Carlisle opted to rest both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. They trailed 35-19 after the first quarter and lost the game. Oopsie! Won’t do that again! Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was 11-for-22, game-high 32 points for OKC in their win. He’ll take a non-recorded 0 tonight. Meanwhile, there will be no rest for the non-weary dynamic Dallas duo as the Mavericks are off two losses, with a day between games, and every game has playoff-making implications for the West’s current #8 team until they don’t. |
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03-29-21 | Heat -4.5 v. Knicks | 98-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Knicks’ outright win at Milwaukee would have been a tough one to ignore had Milwaukee actually been trying. But starters Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Donte DiVincenzo and Jrue Holiday sat, as did sixth man Bobby Portis. New York comes back home with a false sense of confidence off three straight wins, four in the last five, as Miami is desperate. The Heat have lost three games vs. Indiana and Charlotte in the last 10 days which triggered a drop in the standings into a #8 tie with the Pacers, 2 games behind the #4 Knicks. It didn’t help when Western Conference winners Phoenix and Portland were scheduled to hit their town in between those losses. They’ve lost six straight and are 5-14 against opponents with winning records. Let’s make it 6-14. |
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03-29-21 | Pacers -5 v. Wizards | 124-132 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Washington makes it hard on themselves because they don’t defend. They give up the most points in the Association. Bradley Beal was iffy for the win over Detroit on Saturday but he suffered a hip contusion, left the game, and didn’t return. Davis Bertans is out with calf issues. Davis is 38% from downtown this season. Beal has missed only 3 games for Washington this season and the Wizards have lost all of them. Indy has won 4 of 5 and the loss during this span came against the high-scoring Milwaukee club when the Pacers were playing the second of a back-to-back game. Caris LeVert will really help Indy in the second half of the season. |
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03-28-21 | Magic v. Lakers -6.5 | 93-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units One game prior to leaving for this first of a five-game Western trip, the Magic traded a good share of their points production away – Center Nikola Vucevic, forward Aaron Gordon, guard Evan Fournier. They were already missing three injured guys they’d been counting on to be key players in 2020-21, guards Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, forward Jonathan Isaac. Terrence Ross is now the “best” player on what appears to be a much worse team as Tankathon 2021 begins, an event the Lakers are not participating in. L.A. is, however, prepared to take out the violins and fiddle a sad tune for Orlando while using the Magic’s situation to help relieve some of the desperation within their own little issue, which is being Lebron- and Lebrowless. |
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03-28-21 | Suns -6 v. Hornets | 101-97 | Loss | -114 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Charlotte beat this team last month LaMelo Ball had 20 points, 8 assists and a couple of steals. He is likely out for the season. Charlotte is in the bottom half of the league in scoring and allowing points and they allow clubs to shoot 47% from the floor, 23rd overall. Phoenix no longer sneaks up on anybody. They are the real deal. Chris Paul makes sure they take good shots and Devin Booker is liable to go off on any given night. The Suns have won 4 of 5 and the loss during this span came when they blew a fourth-quarter lead in Orlando after beating Miami 24 hours earlier. |
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03-27-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Kings | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers lost 119-105 to the Kings at home on Monday. They take the floor with revenge in a second of back-to-backs coming out of Laker Land last night. Cleveland’s leading scorer for the loss vs. the Kings was Javale McGee, which should tell us all something, given that McGee was traded to Denver three days later – they were showcasing him. The guy scored 18 points in 19 minutes and Denver snapped him up. The Cavaliers aren’t good, but it’s hard to believe that the starters for that game – Larry Nance, Isaac Okoro, Jarrett Allen, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, are truly as bad as their -25, -18, -24, -25 and -26 plus-minuses for that game, compared to their opposite numbers on Sacramento. |
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03-27-21 | Celtics -9 v. Thunder | 111-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Hamadou Diallo hadn’t been playing while injured for OKC, and then they traded him to Detroit. Their heart-and-soul motor, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will be out for a while. With the absences and castoffs, Darius Bazley is now a top three scorer for them and he was out with an injury in their last game. The Celtics play with playoff-making urgency in just about every game, until they don’t anymore. They got a good reminder of how good they can be these last few days when, after 96 minutes at Milwaukee, they were +6 in points against a team with a 67% straight-up win percentage that’s 7.5 games ahead of them in the standings. If newly acquired Evan Fournier can step in and hit a few buckets, the fight would be even more unfair. |
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03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards -3.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Pistons had lost 9 of 12 before facing Brooklyn on Friday. The wins in that span came against the 12 and 31 Rockets, the Raptors when three key Toronto players were 7 for 27 from the field and the Raptors again when Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam didn’t play. On Friday Detroit could not contain James Harden and the Pistons lost a heart breaker. The emphasis for Washington will be to play the entire 48 minutes. They were leading New York by 11 points Thursday night with 12 minutes to go but lost the last stanza by 15 and the game by 4 points. Look for both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal to be pumped after going just a combined 11 for 38 from the floor Thursday. |
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03-25-21 | 76ers -5.5 v. Lakers | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Obviously missing LeBron and Anthony Davis changes the entire Lakers structure but they also will be without the steadying force of Marc Gasol. Philly has won 9 of 10 and the loss in this time frame was by 4 points to Milwaukee when the Sixers were playing the second of a back-to-back game. They beat the Lakers in January after losing in Detroit 48 hours earlier. In that win over L.A. LeBron had 34 points and Davis chipped in with 23. That’s a lot of points for the Lakers to find for this game. |
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03-24-21 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Thunder | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units These teams split the 2 games this season but Memphis should have won both of them. In the Memphis loss 10 nights ago, the Grizzlies had a 10-point lead with 12 minutes to go but lost the game by 6. Memphis is sometimes challenged to score but they share the ball and they play solid defense holding teams to 111 a night, 12th overall. When Memphis can start Ja Morant, Grayson Allen, Dillion Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas they are the best starters in the league allowing points per 100 possessions. |
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03-24-21 | Suns -9.5 v. Magic | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units When Orlando lost to Phoenix in February the Magic were just 17% from beyond the arc. That is no fluke as Orlando is 20th in the league from downtown. Orlando hosted Denver on Tuesday in a game that Aaron Gordon played like a guy that wanted to get traded. He had a meaningless 13 points in the defeat. Phoenix is 7-1 this season in the second of back-to-back games including a win over Orlando last month 24 hours after beating the Sixers. Phoenix played last season’s Eastern Conference champs on Tuesday and in that game in Miami was down 15 in the first half and they could not rally. |
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03-24-21 | Cavs v. Bulls -6 | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Orlando lost to Phoenix in February the Magic were just 17% from beyond the arc. That is no fluke as Orlando is 20th in the league from downtown. Orlando hosted Denver on Tuesday in a game that Aaron Gordon played like a guy that wanted to get traded. He had a meaningless 13 points in the defeat. Phoenix is 7-1 this season in the second of back-to-back games including a win over Orlando last month 24 hours after beating the Sixers. Phoenix played last season’s Eastern Conference champs on Tuesday and in that game in Miami was down 15 in the first half and they could not rally. |
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03-24-21 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Raptors | 111-135 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units What the? They lost in Houston, these Raptors? In a blowout! They have all their guys back. They’re supposed to make a run towards the bottom rung of the Eastern Conference playoff ladder! Our initial impression of the Raptors early this season was “Fade the Raptors!” and it was a good take, for a while, until they started to win a few games. But now, we’re back to, “Fade the Raptors!” as their losing streak has hit nine. Some say they’ve “hit bottom” after losing to an opponent on a 20-game losing streak but after they lost to the worst team goin’, and haven’t won since Feb. 26, they’re probably still approaching bottom. |
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03-23-21 | Nets v. Blazers -3.5 | 116-112 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The last Brooklyn trip out West went 5-0, including outright wins as the underdog at Phoenix, LA Lakers and LA Clippers, three teams above the Blazers in the Western Conference standings. That’s the all-too-logical approach for picking the Nets with the points tonight. It might still work. But, the Blazers’ big scorers all tanked vs. Dallas here in their last game, and the Nets will be without Kyrie Irving (of course!) and Kevin Durant (of course!). These two guys obviously don’t care about whether or not they finish first in the East. |
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03-23-21 | Suns -1.5 v. Heat | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Miami’s Goran Dragic has been nursing a bad back and is iffy for this game but don’t be shocked if he plays. He left the Phoenix organization with some bad blood. The Heat have lost 3 in a row. Before this losing streak Miami had won 5 in a row but none of the teams they beat during this time frame have winning records. The disturbing stat about Miami is that they are 29th in the league shooting the ball from downtown. That makes it a bit easier for opponents to scheme for the Heat. The Suns were unbeaten in the bubble last season and that momentum has carried on. They did get lucky on Sunday against the Lakers as L.A. missed their pair of superstars. Phoenix has won 8 of their last 10 games and they do it on both sides of the ball. They are just outside the top 10 in scoring and only 2 teams allow fewer points nightly. |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Magic | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units From March 18-21 the Magic flew from Orlando to New York, then from New |
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03-22-21 | Raptors -8.5 v. Rockets | 99-117 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Once again, the piñata known as the Houston Rockets has been fastened to the tree branch, hanging low enough for the tall kids to have at it with their bats, bust it open and enjoy all the goodies that rain down upon them. The Raptors have pretty much been made whole again. And yet, they’ve lost eight straight. But they’ve arrived to play against a home underdog that has lost 20 straight, and has no strengths to speak off, just a lot of weaknesses. There’s always somebody in worse shape than you. But in the NBA, they don’t force you to feel sorry for them. They encourage you to beat them down again like everyone else has. |
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03-22-21 | Hornets v. Spurs -5 | 100-97 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Charlotte’s Terry Rozier had to leave the Saturday game with a left hip contusion and never returned. Both Terry and LaMelo Ball are probable for this game. This has not been a good trip for Charlotte as they lost the first 3 on the road. Before the trip the Hornets had won 4 in a row but the opponents they beat are a combined 56 and 110. The Spurs just went 3 and 2 on the road and the losses came against Philly and Milwaukee. In the Saturday loss to the Bucks, the Spurs were only down by 4 with 12 minutes to go but could not pull off a win. They only had one poor quarter and they were missing Dejounte Murray, Trey Lyles and Paddy Mills. |
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03-21-21 | Mavs -1.5 v. Blazers | 132-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday's loss came in the first game of a stretch in which the Mavericks play eight of nine games on the road. Next Friday's game against the Indiana Pacers is the lone one at home during the span. Doncic looks ready to carry Dallas through the stretch after averaging 40 points over the past two games. But he will need some help on Sunday as the Mavericks try to slow Lillard and the now-revved-up McCollum. Consider that Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Portland. |
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03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets -8.5 | 106-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Orlando, with some pieces of the puzzle back, spread the floor against disinterested defense the other night, rained 52% three-pointers and prevented the Nets from claiming first place in the Eastern Conference. We shall make an anger play to get our money back, on good team returning home off that road loss, while the kind of bad team, Washington, hits the road off a home win against the team with the NBA’s best record Utah. It’s a zig-zag move. Blake Griffin’s Brooklyn debut is tonight, so they’ll have somebody who at least will give the Wizards’ driving duo something to think about as they propel themselves in penetration. A spread floor with Russell Westbrook shooting from the perimeter doesn’t have to be spread as much – just let him shoot from there. |
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03-21-21 | Bulls v. Pistons +3 | 100-86 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Road dog. Not road favorite. Road dog. Like Chicago was the other night at Denver, where the Bulls raised their pointspread performance to 11-2 ATS when taking points away from home, performing to expectations against a good host – competing well, hanging in there, failing to win outright. Because they lack the winning instinct, expecting Chicago to make enough of a margin against a lesser team away from home is not the right thing to do, in our estimation. |
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03-21-21 | Thunder +3.5 v. Rockets | 114-112 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Roster attrition via injuries and defections robbed the Rockets of their potential, or at least of the opportunity to evaluate how those available pieces could mesh. That Houston has been unable to get a clear view of what that trio can accomplish together underscores why things have come undone, with the 113-100 loss to the Pistons extending the franchise-worst losing streak to 19 games. But some of what ails Houston, which is set to host the Thunder today, has little to do with who has or who hasn't been available for duty. As the losses mount, the Rockets have fought the urge to relent to this lost season, and truthfully, some yielding has come defensively. Consider that Houston is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite. |
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03-20-21 | Kings v. 76ers -6 | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the 4 recent games that Joel Embiid has missed, Philly has won three of them. Tobias Harris has picked up his play with Embiid gone and Ben Simmons has been more engaged offensively. Ben had a triple/double in the overtime loss to Milwaukee 3 nights ago. Philly should be motivated here in the get-away game before a 6-game Western swing. Before Friday’s game vs. Boston, the Kings had lost 13 of 17 games and they only had one quality win during that span. Only one team gives up more points than the Sacramento. Sacramento will be missing starting power forward Marvin Bagley for this game and for several weeks. The Kings are 2 and 5 in back-to-back games this season. Against the Celts on Friday Sacramento stayed close and then they got a break when Boston could only score 15 points in the last 12 minutes. The 5 Kings starters played between 32 and 39 minutes. |
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03-20-21 | Hawks v. Lakers -4 | 99-94 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks’ arrive off a set-up similar to how Charlotte entered Denver before getting crushed: a seven-game win streak to get over .500, the last six against opponents barely breathing. Reality bites. |
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03-19-21 | Jazz -3.5 v. Raptors | 115-112 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto got a couple of their best players back on Wednesday but they still could not muster and effort to beat Detroit as they lost by 4. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam were the players returning but they were just 5 for 24 from the floor combined. The Raptors have lost 6 in a row, 8 of 9 and the win was against the 11 and 28 Rockets. Before Covid gripped the country and when Toronto played their home games in Canada, the Raptors were 23 and 9 at home last season. Now, playing in Tampa, they are a game under .500 at home. If the Raptors aren’t aggressive defending the perimeter, it will be a long night for Toronto. The Raptors are 24th in the league in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. Only the Clips and Brooklyn have shot it better from the 3-point line this season. Utah is 4 and 1 this season in the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz were in D.C. on Thursday and they come to this game in a very foul mood after the Wizards put a spell of them. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles did their thing but the Jazz reserves were dismal and Utah allowed Bradley Beal to control the tempo. |
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03-19-21 | Nets -10 v. Magic | 113-121 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Home invasion situation for the Nets. The Brooklyn bunch, now tied for first place in the East, flew here on Wednesday night after winning at Indiana, before the Magic flew outta town yesterday morning with a round trip ticket to and from New York, where they hopped off, took the Knicks to the wire in defeat, re-boarded, flew home to go to bed before playing the better NYC squad tonight, taking only +8 after covering +7 (as we expected) at the Knicks, who played without guards Derrick Rose, Elfrid Payton, Immanuel Quickley and Austin Rivers. |
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03-19-21 | Pistons +1.5 v. Rockets | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons proved themselves willing and able conquerors of an opponent in distress when they walloped absentee-laden Toronto in Tampa recently, then came back to win the re-hook when the Raptors were reinforced by Van Vleet and Siakim’s returns following extended layoffs (and Anunoby was still out). Houston, 0-17, but Christian Wood and Danuel House have returned. So what? |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers -1 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Teams have to force New Orleans to settle for perimeter shots. They are 19th in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. The Pelicans faltered on Tuesday against the Blazers even though their best two players went 21 for 39 from the floor. Once again, Damian Lillard was efficient and carried Portland to victory on Tuesday with 50 and 10 dimes. He had the third fewest field-goal attempts on way to a 50-point game in the shot-clock era. He probably will not just rest on his laurels after the big night either. Last month he had 43 in a game and came back with 35 points in the next out. C.J. McCollum has a shot to have a better game here after getting some rust off on Tuesday |
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03-18-21 | Thunder v. Hawks -7 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are 20-20, tied for #6 in the East with Boston, who failed in Cleveland last night. Charlotte is a half-game in front of them and playing better teams out West. OKC’s Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley both had good games vs. the Hawks in their prior meeting but both are expected to be out as they go G-League-ish. It’s teed up for the home team, which has won six straight, the last five against the biggest collection of troubled bums in a row you could imagine: Orlando, Toronto, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston |
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03-16-21 | Pelicans +2 v. Blazers | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blazers went 1-1 in Minnesota, a 9-30 team, and were a mere +3 in points differential. The Pelicans are talented enough to be more than a handful for them. The nights we pick the Pelicans, however, tend to be the nights that Stan the Man can’t get them to do anything right. Over the last two weeks, only the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings are allowing more points per possession than the Blazers are. There has been a lot of losing among those two Western Conference standings anchors! Bad sign for the home favorite, considering that the Pelicans have unleashed some previously unrealized offensive potential in recent weeks. The Pelicans are 4 games out of the #8 seed in the West, but if they’re ever going to make one of their runs that perpetually get basketball writers to say, “New Orleans has arrived, and such a bright future!” only to have them slump and miss the playoffs, again, then a game like this – road, vs. a sixth-place host that barely made the playoffs last season, who could go either way from here – is the kind of game they need to win to start making up ground that will eventually be lost again. |
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03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers may be taking over from Utah and Phoenix as the new "hottest team in the NBA." Sure, Miami has won 10 of 11 but Philly, in their last five games, is scoring 1.27 points per possession, allowing only 1.03, 5-0 SU and ATS while covering the spread by an average of +20.6 points per game. It’s not sustainable, of course. Utah, our "peak too soon" team, is an NBA-worst -11.8 per game ATS in this same span. This is how things work. The problem is in attempting to detect when the big, long, hot spells will cool down and level off. You know the dips are coming, but when? We’ll figure that against a visitor that is offensively suspect, doesn’t beat winning opposition on a regular basis (it’s called being a bottom-feeder) isn’t home, and who played home vs. the Nets last hight, the Embiid-less 76ers stay hot. |
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03-16-21 | Jazz -4 v. Celtics | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston goes from playing one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best. In Houston on Sunday the Celts took advantage of a team in total disarray. Boston has won 5 of 6 but the last win was too easy and they also beat a Toronto team that has had a bad stretch with the protocols. Boston was also life and death to beat the 14-23 Washington team by a point. The Jazz figure to be motivated after allowing the Warriors to destroy them from outside on Sunday. Rudy Gobert should be able to control the glass. In the game vs. the Warriors, Golden State had 40 rebounds while Gobert had 28 all by his lonesome. When Utah beat this team last month they won the battle of the boards and Utah starting guard Mike Conley didn’t play. |
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03-15-21 | Clippers -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Second of back-to-backs for the Clippers, but they were blown out after three quarters in New Orleans last night. All of the obvious recent signs point in Dallas’ direction. The Mavericks are 7-2 since Feb. 15 with a +5.4 points differential. The Clippers are 5-7 in the same span, with a +0.8 margin. But when they got on the airplane headed for New Orleans, the Clippers knew they’d be playing two games in three days at Dallas immediately afterwards. The eighth-place Mavericks are only 3.5 games behind the fourth place Clippers today. Not only is there the matter of keeping at bay a team near them in the standings, there was a 124-73 home loss to the Mavericks in the third game of the season. That was an incredible 51-point losing margin, at home! Professional athletes who have attained certain levels of what is described as “success” aren’t always motivated to play their best emotionally and physically. But 51-point home losses (Kawhi Leonard didn’t play, and he and Paul George played only 29 and 23 minutes last night) tend to be remembered at payback time! L.A. is the #1 three-point shooting team (41.7%). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets -8.5 | 112-117 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets won 116-109 at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 12, after they’d beaten Denver 122-116 the night before. The Knicks don’t beat winning opponents. Maybe once in a while they do. But when the opponent wants to get serious, they normally won’t. Playing good defense against lousy teams has helped New York to become 20-19, currently #7 in the East. Attempting to play good defense against one of the most potent offensive teams will probably be for naught. The Nets are a half-game behind Two Week Embiid-Less Philadelphia, have won nine of their last 10. They eased past Detroit in a sandwich game the other night, between beating real threat Boston and tipping it off here against real threat (to their neighborhood manhood) New York. No Durant, no Blake Griffin yet, no problem? |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Sacramento has dropped 12 of 15. Two of the wins came against Detroit and Houston and the other came against the Lakers when they were without LeBron and Anthony Davis. Charlotte beat this club the last night in February despite 3 starters for the Hornets shooting 6 for 18 from the floor. The Hornets have won 3 in a row, 4 of 5 and the loss was in Oregon to the pesky Blazers. Their rotation got deeper immediately after the break. |
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03-15-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +8.5 | 133-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite playing without All-Star and NBA leading scorer Bradley Beal, Washington took Milwaukee to the limit in Saturday's 125-119 Bucks win. Russell Westbrook, who recorded a triple-double of 42 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds, made a 3-pointer that pulled the Wizards into a 119-119 tie before Milwaukee scored the game's final six points. Despite the output allowed on Saturday, Washington. Coach Scott Brooks praised the defensive effort in holding the Bucks below 44 percent shooting, and cited the interior defense of center Alex Len, who Brooks called "active." Consider that Washington is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall while Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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03-14-21 | Jazz -6.5 v. Warriors | 119-131 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A very telling scenario: For weeks, the Warriors had been going along steadily in the Western Conference’s top eight, not really threatening the top four but holding service in the group that was vying in the #5 to #8 range. But their last three games before the All-Star break were on the road against the Lakers, Blazers and Suns – winning Western Conference teams familiar with them. The results were L-L-L. They came out of the break to get killed on the road at the Clippers, another in the group of Western Conference opponents in the stratosphere above them. They have fallen to #9, possibly with a lead weight attached. Although they are finally back home, the opponent is the one team that’s been flying clearly above everybody else in the West, and the league in general, for the last seven weeks. Recent results suggest that the Warriors are outclassed in match-ups like this. |
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03-14-21 | Grizzlies -7 v. Thunder | Top | 122-128 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Second of back-to-backs for the host Thunder following yesterday’s crash and burn by our new least favorite basketball team. Hopefully they get what they deserve and lose ten more games consecutively. They are very excited that 7-footer Moses Brown, in his second career start, got a double-double in their 22-point home loss to a Knicks team with three guards out, and one on the floor who can’t score (Frank Nktilina). Good God. Rested Memphis can be a defensively harassing pest on any given night, especially when they didn’t play the night before and the other guys did. Actually, when both sides were playing second of back-to-backs in Memphis on Feb. 17, OKC turned it over 18 times and lost 122-113. |
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03-13-21 | Mavs +2 v. Nuggets | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks lost the second of back-to-backs at Oklahoma City on Thursday after they’d beaten San Antonio at home the night before. They were in Denver yesterday, as the Nuggets were in Memphis, winning no less. It’s a home invasion situation for a Dallas team that’s been doing quite well in this match-up of late. In the last five meetings, the Mavericks have outscored the Nuggets by +21 points. That’s an average margin of +4.2 per game and the oddsmaker gives the rested road dog a head start here. |
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03-13-21 | Raptors v. Hornets -2 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto, who has several players dealing with health and safety protocols, hosted the Hawks on Thursday. The Raptors were beaten off the boards in the defeat and the game would not have been all that close if Chris Boucher didn’t have a huge game. Chris has 29 points and he has only reached that many points or more two other times this season. The Pistons visited North Carolina on Thursday in a game where Scary Terry Rozier dominated down the stretch. The Hornets lost back-toback games to Toronto in January but there were reasons. In the first loss, the Hornets rally fell short when Gordon Hayward didn’t play and LaMelo Ball was not even starting. In the second loss, the Charlotte bench just didn’t show up as they scored 11 fewer points than their average this season. Charlotte has won 4 of 6 including a win over Phoenix and in one of the losses during this time span Melo had a ‘glory days’ game for Portland. |
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03-13-21 | Knicks v. Thunder +4.5 | 119-97 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units What can the Knicks do for an encore following the expected 25-point loss at ***BEST BET Milwaukee on Thursday? The Knicks don’t beat many good teams. They have beaten enough losing teams to have a .500 record. OKC is a losing team. Since the Knicks acquired Derrick Rose from Detroit, they are 8-4 SU when he plays. But Rose didn’t play in Milwaukee and he won’t play today. Aha. The Thunder beat the Knicks 101-89 in New York on Jan. 9. Little-known fact: Mike Miller, former Knicks assistant and their interim coach last season after David Fizdale fizzled out and was sent packing, is top assistant for first-season OKC head coach Mark Daigneault. Double-aha! Ya’ think perhaps Miller and fellow former New York, now OKC assistant Royal Ivey – Harlem-born and Queens, NY high school champ -- had a little something to do with fashioning that prior win? Shea Gilgeous-Alexander out for OKC. Yeah, seen that movie before. |
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03-12-21 | Magic v. Spurs -7.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic travel for a second of back-to-backs, against a rested home team that is coming off a loss. Shooting guards Evan Fournier and Terrance Ross were out last night. They tried to go big and hung in there for a while, but wilted badly in the fourth quarter. Good luck to them, and their backers, if those two are out again tonight. Fournier is definitely out, Ross questionable. Not to mention point guard Cole Anthony having been out since Feb. 9, and 6’6” small forward James Ennis III out since Feb. 25. Oy. Compared to what San Antonio had to deal with against Doncic and Porzingis the other night, this is quite the class drop. |
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03-12-21 | Cavs v. Pelicans -7 | 82-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland doesn’t make it easy on themselves. They are the only team that has averaged fewer than 10 three-pointers a game. Coach Van Gundy has to get his team to play more consistent in the second half of the season. The Pelicans take good shots and are tied for 5th in the league in offensive field-goal percentage. |
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03-12-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 127-101 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No Embiid, no Simmons in Chicago last night? No problem! Come on, man, that was a fun set-up, taking points with the 76ers against the Bulls without those two, once again watching the “high-profile absentee chasers” go down to defeat with information that everybody knows, but attempts to leverage while not accounting for the reality of professional players and coaches doing their jobs in the absence of “superstars,” who are merely guys with big stats. It was so much fun that we are emboldened, as Embiid returns tonight but Simmons is still out, to figure “Washington outright” as the Sixers lay two possessions in the second of back-to-backs vs. the rested home side that is coming off a loss. Simmons is a danged good defender. |
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03-12-21 | Nuggets -3 v. Grizzlies | 103-102 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis hosted the Wizards on Wednesday in a game that the Grizzlies controlled in the second half. Memphis was a bit on the fortunate side since Washington’s best player Bradley Beal shot only 27% from the floor. That was Beal’s second worst shooting night of the season as he has averaged 48% from the field this season. Denver has won 4 in a row including a 31-point win over Milwaukee on the second of a back-to-back game. They have also won 5 of 6 and the loss during this period was by a bucket. The Nuggets play the right way and they have several guys that can get their own shot. They are in the top 8 in the league in scoring, allowing points and assists. The Nuggets are behind only Milwaukee, Phoenix and Utah in point differential |
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03-11-21 | 76ers +3.5 v. Bulls | 127-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Ha. They can’t trap us. The Bulls have been best as road dogs, as we often note on these pages. Tonight, because neither Joel Embiid nor Ben Simmons is playing for the 76ers, Chicago is a -3+ home favorite against the Eastern Conference’s first place team. You know what they say. First, they say that what everybody and his brother knows is not worth knowing. Also, they say that when the big cats are away, the mice will play! |
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03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks -10.5 | 101-134 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bucks have revenge for a 130-110 loss in New York. They seem to be pacing themselves this season as opposed to last, when they were the clear #1 team throughout, then fizzled badly in the post-season. The Knicks have been playing well, it’s true. But who have they been playing? Mostly nobody. Prior to a recent rare loss for New York, in San Antonio, we noted that they’d been beating losers. The Knicks were supposed to lose that game, against a winning team, by 4 points. They lost it by 26. They went home to win against banged-up, travel-weary Detroit. Big whoop. Milwaukee shot 7-for-38 from three-point range when they lost in New York. With Mitchell Robinson out for the Knicks, Giannis can posterize Nerlens Noel a few times. |
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03-11-21 | Hawks -3 v. Raptors | 121-120 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto was hit hard at the end of the first half of the season with health and safety protocols. It is kind of amazing the way the NBA has continued to carry on despite all the health issues. When Toronto lost to the Hawks in February Atlanta did a good job on both of the Toronto starting guards and Atlanta won despite turning it over 18 times. Atlanta went 3 and 2 in their last 5 in the first half but in that span they beat Boston and they also handled Miami. Atlanta kicks it off here only 2 games out of the 6th spot in the East. |
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03-04-21 | Warriors v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Not a good set-up for the Warriors. Following last night’s ding-donger defeat in Portland, they face the new "hottest team in the NBA" after a night flight into the Arizona desert, where the rested Suns await with some impressive recent numbers including: +14.8 points differential last eight games, including the second best offensive efficiency (1.24 points per possession) and fifth best defensive efficiency (1.09 points per possession) in that span. During it, the Suns are shooting 52.0%, tops in the league for the stretch, and turning it over only 11 times per game, fewest in the league. On Jan. 28, the Suns beat the Warriors by 21 points here without Devin Booker. 6’7" shooting guard Kelly Oubre (15.5 ppg, 5.7 reb in 30.3 minutes per) didn’t play for the Warriors last night |
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03-04-21 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | 107-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks tried to do the Thunder a favor last night by resting Luka Doncic. OKC could not take advantage, losing the game and the spread 87-78 in a Festival of Bad Shooting. You’ll recall that last week, the Spurs came off a pause to lose 102-99 in OKC on a last-second corner three-pointer by Lu Dort. San Antonio played that game off a 10-day forced break, without Demar DeRozan, Derrick White, Rudy Gay and Keldon Johnson. Only DeRozan and Johnson have returned since, but that should be enough to turn the tables sufficiently. |
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03-04-21 | Pistons v. Knicks -6.5 | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Pistons are dead last in the Eastern Conference and they have struggled mightily on the road. Detroit’s best player this season, Jerami Grant, has been dealing with a bruised left quad. Detroit faced Toronto on Wednesday and they took advantage of the Raptors being shorthanded in the facile Pistons win. Toronto was missing several key players. The Spurs snapped a 3-game Knicks winning streak on Tuesday but New York was missing some key elements. Elfrid Payton was out with a hammy and Derrick Rose was dealing with health and safety issues. With a win the Knicks would go into the All-Star break a game over .500. Rookie Immanuel Quickley has been a bright spot. He had 26 points off the bench in the Tuesday loss and leads all rookies this season with games of 25 points or more. |
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03-03-21 | Hornets -1 v. Wolves | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit The T’Wolves are lettin’ it fly. For the season, they’ve averaged a league-high 92.1 field goal attempts per game. But since the Saunders child was fired as head coach, replaced by the former Raptors’ assistant Chris Finch, they’re putting up 97.5 shots per game. The problem with that? With both D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley out, many of those shots are being taken by not-so-hot shooters, finding the net only 42.1% of the time. They’re hittin’ only 30.9% of their three-point attempts under Finch, and turning the ball over like crazy. Charlotte is 2-3 on their road trip, which ends here along with the first half of their season. They have a goal: go into their break following a .500 trip. |
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03-03-21 | Nets -9.5 v. Rockets | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Okay, Houston, we’ve had a problem here and we are not talking about Appolo 13. The Rockets have not won a game since Feb. 4 and in that win they had one of their best guys, Christian Wood, playing. Wood is out until after the All-Star break. Brooklyn, on the other hand, is rolling. They have only lost twice since Feb. 8. Brooklyn showed grit in the Monday win after the Spurs closed the game with a 10-point run but the Texans lost in overtime. James Harden should be up for this one as he is back to face his former club. The guy who coached him in Houston, Mike Dantoni, who left before they could fire him after his four-season run, is the Nets’ #1 assistant. |
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03-02-21 | Nuggets v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 128-97 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Denver has several guys with nagging injuries and guys that are dealing with protocol issues. Denver lost to this team by 13 last month when the Nuggets not only lost the battle of the boards but they lost on a night when the Bucks Khris Middleton was 0 for 5 from beyond the arc. This season, Khris is shooting at 43% from distance. The Bucks got Jrue Holiday back Sunday and although he played limited minutes and the rust was evident, Milwaukee still had enough to take care of the Clippers. As usual, Giannis Antetokounmpo did a little bit of everything with 14 boards, 5 assists, 4 blocks and a steal to go along with this 36 points. Bobby Portis has found a niche with Milwaukee. On Sunday, he had 9 points, 7 boards and 3 thefts in 21 minutes. It’s a tough spot for Denver in their current shape with no rest. |
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03-01-21 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Blazers have two days of rest. The visiting Hornets play the second of back-to-backs. We started saying this a few weeks ago: Portland – still 18-14 -- needs to win games like this while Nurkic and McCollum are out. They enter on a four-game losing streak, three of them on the road against winners (Phoenix, Denver, Lakers). For this they are home, with the favorable set-up, against a loser. They’re in sixth place in the West but only 1.5 games out of ninth. It may not appear so on the surface, but it’s as big a game as they’ll play. Consider that Charlotte is |
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02-28-21 | Suns -10 v. Wolves | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The hot-hot Suns conduct a home invasion, rested after winning in Chicago on Friday night, in town yesterday and casing the joint as the lowly T’Wolves were in Washington being abused, again. The home dog that lacks bite (and also lacks the offense of D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley) plays the second of back-to-backs, road to home. |
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02-28-21 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Rockets | Top | 133-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Rockets’ latest misadventure was losing by 11 points to what was basically a self-coached Raptors team. When we heard that Toronto would be without six coaches plus Pascal Siakim vs. Houston on Fridayand doubled down on the ***BEST BET. People will cling to any piece of not-so-relevant news in order to take points, won’t they? But bad teams do not take advantage and are not good to latch onto. On Friday night, Memphis lacked defensive intensity in the second of back-to-backs vs. the Clippers. They’ve done that before in the same situation. This is not that situation. Consider that Houston is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. |
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02-27-21 | Nuggets v. Thunder +7 | 126-96 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Second of back-to-backs on this floor for the host Thunder after they beat Atlanta last night. The Nuggets are rested and off a loss, but with a handful of guys out, their defensive abilities are on the wane. The Thunder have visited Denver twice already (0-2, 119-101 the first time, 97-95 the second). Double-revenge home dog shouldn’t be too taxed to give it a good go in their final home game before the league’s one-week break. They don’t play again until March 3-4 in Dallas-San Antonio. OKC sat Al Horford last night but he should play tonight. Leave it all on the floor. |
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02-27-21 | Pacers +1 v. Knicks | 107-110 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers are 15-15. The Knicks are 16-17. An opportunity for the Knicks to hit .500, seems like a good time for them to fail. The next game after the Knicks scored 140 points seems like a good time for them to experience “what goes down” after “what went up.” Why the Pacers decided to take 50 of their 84 field goal attempts from three-point range the last time they played the Knicks (and lost 106-102) is a good question with no good answer. But perhaps, without menacing Mitchell Robinson on the floor for New York, Indiana will have the good sense to go inside much more. They also don’t have Victor Oladipo to shoot 3-for-16 like he did in that game. |
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02-26-21 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 93-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After a win by the Lakers over the Wolves on Feb. 16, L.A. was 5-1 when playing without Anthony Davis. They basically were beating poor teams in that span. Since the win Feb. 16, L.A. has lost 4 in a row including a defeat by the 11 and 18 Wizards. The Lakers have failed to reach 100 points in 3 of the last 4 games. Portland comes to the Staples Center in a foul mood after dropping 3 straight games. That is their longest losing streak of the season. In Portland’s last loss, they were in the Mile High and were tied with 12 minutes to go but lost the last quarter and the game by 5. When Portland beat the Lakers early in the season, the Blazers high-flying Derrick Jones was only one for 9 from the floor. In Portland’s last loss, Jones was 7 for 9 from the floor with three blocks. |
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02-26-21 | Hornets v. Warriors -6 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State playing pretty well, coming off victories at New York and Indiana with a 6-3 SU record in the last 9 games. Warriors (or at least Draymond Green) will well-remember how their first encounter with Charlotte ended. A wild 102-100 Hornet win in the Spectrum Center, when Green lost it and was bounced with two technicals with 9.3 seconds remaining, as the Warriors blew their 5-point lead in the final 43 seconds of the match. Have to respect Charlotte on the road, where the Hornets have covered 7 of their last 10 but Golden State has the psychological edge, and remember Steph Curry was a late scratch in that game due to him just not feeling right after pregame drills. Golden State 6-3 as home chalk, and Curry (who scored 37 pts. in 37 minutes Tuesday vs. NY, knows his friends and family will be watching back in Charlotte, where he grew up when his dad Dell was playing for the Hornets. |
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02-26-21 | Pacers v. Celtics -3 | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The busy-busy-busy Celtics dropped to 15-16 when beaten by Luka Doncic in the final seconds Tuesday night. They flew to Atlanta after that to lose a Wednesday night battle of back-to-backers vs. Atlanta. They’re 15-17. If the 15-15 Pacers have a Doncic-type or Trae Young-type player, or somebody that could come out of nowhere to complement a guy like that such as Danilo Gallinari (an unlikely 38 points to Young’s 33 on Wednesday vs. Boston), then they’ve done a fine job hiding him as first-season head coach Nate Bjorken has the fans pining for Nate McMillan. |
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02-26-21 | Rockets v. Raptors -7 | Top | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day Rockets are supposed to go up during missions. These Rockets are going down, in flames. Nine losses in last 10 games, the latest to an opponent with the lowest power rating who makes the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA. Cleveland had lost 10 straight games going into the match-up, but won it by 16 points. Houston has released DeMarcus Cousins (9.6 ppg, 7.6 reb, 2.4 assists, 20.2 minutes). They keep giving serious minutes to P.J. Tucker, who has produced nine games with 0 points. This is the NBA, fellas. If a non-productive player gets serious minutes, and you start nobody taller than 6’6,” and the only true big you bring off the bench is Justin (Who?) Patton, then you’ll lose a lot, by a lot. |
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02-25-21 | Pelicans v. Bucks -9 | 125-129 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans beat this club last month but they got a couple of breaks which helped in the victory. The Bucks could not throw it in the ocean in that first quarter scoring just 21. The Pelicans were also a bit lucky that the Bucks Khris Middleton had a poor shooting night. Khris was one for 6 from downtown in that loss but is popping at 43% from deep this season. The Bucks have righted their ship. They kicked off this month winning 5 in a row and then they lost 5 straight. They are seeking their 4th consecutive win here and when they beat Minnesota on Tuesday, they did it the right way with 33 assists. Look for Milwaukee to come out ready to play from the opening tip. |
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02-25-21 | Clippers -7.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 94-122 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Grizzlies own the NBA’s Sophomore Jinx of the Year, Ja Morant. Everybody was waiting for him to return after being injured very early in the season and in hindsight, given the well-known existence of the “jinx,” and NBA coaches’ adjustments on players such as Morant, the anticipation seems to have been quite foolish. The team’s strongest identity is the creation of havoc on defense. That’s nice, but shooting the basketball straight is also important, and when harassing defense nevertheless allows 144 points to New Orleans, and the team can score only 92 points when it gives up only 102 vs. Dallas, and the only opponents it’s been able to beat in the last 12 games have been Charlotte, OKC and Detroit |
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02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch of the Day The Spurs will be without DeMar DeRozan for this game because of a death in the family. LaMarcus Aldridge has not played since Feb. 1 with a hip issue but he did practice on Monday. Even if he does play, the rust could be evident. LaMarcus missed a few consecutive games last month and in the game he returned in, he only scored 14 points. Rudy Gay, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Derrick White did not travel for this game because of health and safety concerns. OKC lost Monday but they were playing in the second of a back-to-back game after winning in Ohio. The Thunder have some quality wins on their record against teams like Milwaukee, Phoenix and Brooklyn. When considering schedule strength based on opponents’ records, days of rest, and home and away OKC has had the second toughest schedule in the league according to ESPN. |
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02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Pacers are extra-rested after not playing since Feb. 17. By contrast, the Warriors come out to play for a second of back-to-backs on the road. At Golden State on Jan. 12, the Pacers had enough in the tank in a second of back-to-backs to beat rested Warriors 104-95, using a box-and-one defense against Steph Curry most of the game. (Curry had 20 points, 3 assists; he averages 29.9 and 6.2.) Not sure if the Warriors can adjust if the Pacers do it again. T.J. McConnell didn’t play in that first meeting so the Pacers have an extra, fresh guy to be the “1” chasing outside the box. Consider that Golden State is 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 0 days rest. |
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02-23-21 | Wizards v. Clippers -12 | 116-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Clippers are rested following Sunday’s certain loss vs. the Nets They catch the Wizards as Washington plays a second of back-to-backs after Monday’s overtime win at the floundering, semi-depleted Lakers, an effort that included coming back from a 17-point early third-quarter deficit. It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them. Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook each played 44 minutes last night to get their 32 and 33 points. Westbrook attempted all of one (1) three-pointer because even he knows he’s a lousy jump-shooter. |
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02-23-21 | Kings +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-127 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Mismatch Sunday night sweep of the West Coast when their largest lay was -4.5 while they went 5-0? Tuesday home game 3,000 miles away from their last victory spot, L.A., laying -7.5 against one of the teams they beat on the trip? Well, now. While covering this spread is certainly within the Brooklyn Ball Hogs’ scope, they are coming off a “mission accomplished” trip. Compared to what they just did out West, this match-up is a nuisance on the work slate. The Kings, on a 0-7 SU, 0-7 ATS skid, nevertheless are pros who want to snap that losing streak. Off two games in Chicago and Milwaukee, they’ve eased into the time zone change while the Nets are suddenly jarred back into it. Consider that Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog |
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02-23-21 | Pistons v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-93 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day This is a re-match of the Sunday game and again, the Pistons will be without Delon Wright, who is averaging 10 points, 5 boards and 5 assists a night. On Sunday, Orlando won the battle of the boards, held Detroit to 28% from beyond the arc and the Magic were just more aggressive getting to the free-throw line 29 times to 21 for the Pistons. Orlando also should now have an improved rotation as the returning Al-Farouq Aminu started and got some rust off. |
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02-22-21 | Heat -6.5 v. Thunder | 108-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC coming off a win in Cleveland last night, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander netting 31 pts. and 9 assists, as C Al Horford rebounded from his terrible night on Friday to score 16 pts, with 8 rebs, and a couple of steals to help the Thunder to a 117-101 victory. Miami also off a victory, an emotional, hard-fought win at Staples Center against the Lakers on Saturday, with Kendrick Nunn scoring 27 pts. on 10 of 14 shooting, and Bam Adebayo had another productive night (16-10-6 with 2 steals), and Jimmy Butler (24 pts., 8 rebs. 5 dimes, 2 steals) was once again the straw that stirs the drink. One setback for Spoelstra’s Heat is that G Tyler Herro was KO’d for the 2nd half of that game with a hip problem and is iffy pending Monday’s shootaround. Considering OKC has covered just 3 of last 12 at the Chesapeake Energy Arena, have to lean to Jimmy-B’s Heat. |