|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-21-20||Saints -5.5 v. Raiders||Top||24-34||Loss||-103||8 h 22 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
New Orleans vs Las Vegas
8:15 PM EST, September 21, 2020
Brees and the Saints are 14-8 SU and ATS for 64% winning bets following a home win in which Brees threw for fewer than 190 passing yards. The Saints with Brees starting are 25-18 SU and 25-17-1 ATS for 60% winning bets coming off a home ATS win and playing their next game on a grass surface and 6-3 ATS for 67% ATS winning bets since 2016. The Saints are 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets when coming off a home ATS win and facing a team that was not in the playoffs of the previous season. Last, Saints are an impeccable 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets when installed as a road favorite and facing a team that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season.
This betting system is active for a bet on the Saints tonight and has earned a remarkable 28-5 ATS mark for 85% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. The system requires us to be on road teams that are facing an opponent that had a struggling defense in the previous season that allowed an average of 24 points-per-game and are coming off a game in which they scored 30 or more points.What Does the Machine Learning Have to Say?
The machine learning models project that the Saints will average at least 7.0 yards-per-pass-attempt and will have at least 5 more first downs than the Raiders. The Saints are 54-10 SU for 84% wins and 54-9-1 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 11 points when they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures since 2002.
|09-20-20||Chiefs v. Chargers +9||Top||23-20||Win||100||4 h 28 m||Show|
Kansas City vs LA Chargers
7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Chargers
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons.
The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Chargers were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 7-1 SU record and a 7-1 ATS record covering by an average of 14 points for a robust 67% ROI. Also, the Chargers are 51-14 SU and 40-24-1 ATS in home games and gaining at least 5.75 or more yards-per-play and when a home dog they are 8-3 for 72% ATS.
|09-20-20||Lions +6.5 v. Packers||Top||21-42||Loss||-105||2 h 37 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Detroit vs Green Bay
1:00 PM EST, September 20, 2020
We were on the Packers last week in their road upset win over the Vikings, but now against them. Teams ebb and flow and when they are coming off a strong outing and above average performance levels there is a propensity to revert back to the mean. Detroit outplayed Chicago last week on both sides of the ball and found a way to lose that game. They will not do that again in this matchup.
The machine learning projections call for the Lions to win the turnover batter, have more first downs, and average at least 4.7 yards-per-rush. In past games in which they met or exceeded those performance measures they went on to earn a perfect 20-0 ATS mark 19-1 SU and covered the spread by an average of 13 points.
|09-20-20||Bills v. Dolphins +6||31-28||Win||100||1 h 22 m||Show|
Buffalo vs Miami
September 20, 2020, 1:00 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports the Dolphins and is quite simple. It has earned a 77-35 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to bet on underdogs that are facing a team coming off a home win spanning the first four weeks of the regular season. This system has earned a 16-6 ATS mark over the last three seasons.
The machine learning models project that Miami will have a better Yards-per-play ratio and have no more than one turnover. In past games in which the Dolphins were home underdogs and met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 13-3 SU record and a 13-1-2 ATS record covering by an average of 9.8 points for a robust 68% ROI.
|09-20-20||Falcons +3 v. Cowboys||Top||39-40||Win||100||1 h 16 m||Show|
Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys
Both teams come into this game off losses and no one ever wants to start 0-2 out of the gate. The Cowboys had a tough game against a physical Rams team, but their inability to convert on third downs (3-12 25%) and move the chains was the main reason they lost. Time-of-possession was heavily in favor of the Rams, who had an 11:16 edge, but Dallas ran 69 plays to the Rams 72 plays. The Rams had a 10-minute edge in the first quarter with the remaining three quarters equal in time-of-possession.
The Rams did convert well on third downs (8-17 53%) and had more scoring chances than Dallas attained. One of those scoring chances ended with Goff throwing an interception, which was the only turnover of the game for either team. Dallas had just one drive in the first quarter that started on their own 26 and ended 6 plays later their 48-yard line. The Rams took their first possession of the season and drove 70 yards on 7 plays to score a touchdown. Their second drive of the quarter ended at the Dallas 10-yard line after missing a short field goal attempt.
This system is one you want to record and use for every NFL season as it has earned an incredible 27-5 against-the-spread record good for 84% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requires are to bet on underdogs that were excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing-yards-per-game (PYPG) last season and after a game in which their defense allowed 7 or more passing yards-per-attempt (PYPA). This combination of performance parameters has recorded a near-perfect 17-1 ATS over the last five seasons and is 8-0 ATS over the last three seasons.
The machine learning models project that the Falcons will score more than 27 points, pass for at least 260 yards, and will not be outgained by more than 65 total yards. In past games in which the Falcons met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 33-7 SU mark and 29-10-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets.
|09-19-20||Wake Forest +1 v. NC State||Top||42-45||Loss||-105||13 h 41 m||Show|
Wake returns just three starters on offense but return eight starters on defense. Despite the lack of expereince on offense, they held up well against Clemson, who has a one of the best defensive units in the nation. They do return eight starters on defense that will match up quite well against a solid Wolfpack offensive unit.
Wake played many high-scoring games in 2019 and as a result the defense was spending too much time on the field and gave up too many fourth quarter scores. The offense is geared towards moving the chains and keeping the opposing offense off the field, which is the winning recipe facing the Wolfpack.A Time-Tested Betting System
Here is a proven betting system that has earned a solid 57-22 ATS record since 1990 and instructs us to play on road teams in the first four weeks of the season that have a new starting QB and was a bowl team that lost the last two games of the season.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Suggest is a Solid Bet?
The projections call for Wake to score at least 28 points and throw for an average of at least 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt. In past games in which Wake has met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 20-0 SU record and an amazing 18-1 ATS mark for 85% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 9.5 points.
Take the Wake Forest Demon Deacons as a Best Bet Upset Alert this Saturday.
|09-19-20||Miami-FL +1.5 v. Louisville||Top||47-34||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
Miami (FLA) vs Louisville
7-Star Upset Alert Titan on the Miami Hurricanes
Last season, the Hurricanes destroyed the Cardinal 55-27 with Quarterback Jarren Williams throwing for a school-record six touchdowns. After that game, it appeared that the Hurricanes were on the national stage, but Williams never even came close to matching that performance over the remainder of the season. He transferred to Garden City Community College in Kansas to hopefully finish out his NCAA career.
The Hurricanes lost a lot of talent from last season’s team due to the NFL draft and players opting out of the season account of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for those choosing to play has brough them great opportunities and the Hurricanes starting QB D’Eriq King, who is a graduate transfer from the University of Houston, is making the most of it. He has an active NCAA-record scoring streak of having at least one touchdown pass and one rushing touchdown in 16 consecutive games. So, the Hurricanes offense under new OC Rhett Lashlee, will look to play fast and optimize the duel threat athleticism of King.Cardinal Defense is Much Better
The Louisville defense allowed three scoring touchdowns last week in their 35-21 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last week. However, two of these scores involved drives of 1 and 4 yards, after failed special team plays. One of the turnovers was a dropped ball by the punter and then a blocked punt. So, taking those miscues into account, the Louisville defense may have allowed 10 or fewer points.
The defense also got a turnover on downs at the goal line and had 11 tackles-for-loss and reflects consistent gap discipline and penetration they attained. This unit will have to play even better against the Hurricane offense that suddenly has many weapons and King, who is even being mentioned in Heisman conversations.Important Matchup Situations
The following team situational results are based on their games last week. The Hurricanes are 6-1 straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) after a game in which they rushed for 300 or more yards since the 2011 season. Moreover, the Hurricanes are a stout 18-4 SU and 14-8 ATS for 64% winning bets when out rushing their previous opponent by 125 or more yards since 2011.
The Cardinal is just 18-28 ATS for 39% winning bets following a game where their defense forced no more than one turnover in games played since 2011. Moreover, they are 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when the next game has been at home and a near-imperfect 1-8 ATS when ranked in the Top-25 poll.A Money Line Betting System Support the Hurricanes
This money line betting system has earned an outstanding 41-31 record for 56% winning wagers and has made the $100 bettor a profit of $4,910 over the last 10 seasons. The betting system instructs us to bet on road team using the money line that are facing an opponent coming off a game in which they outgained their opponent by at least 175 yards and has at least eight returning starters on offense during the first four weeks of the regular season.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Expect?
The current lines showing Louisville favored by 2.5 points and total of 65 points implies a 34-31 Louisville win. However, the machine learning projections sees the final score favoring the Hurricanes if they can contain the Cardinal to fewer than 28 points. When the Hurricanes have been installed as a road dog and have held the host to fewer than 28 points has produced a 16-12 SU record and a jaw-dropping 23-5 ATS mark for 82% winning bets since 1990.
The Cardinal is just 10-4 SU and 1-13 ATS when they have been a home favorite and scored fewer than 28 points in games played since 2011. The ‘UNDER’ is a perfect 14-0 in these games.The Miami Hurricanes +2.5 points and the ‘UNDER’ 65-points are a pair of Best Bets and consider making this a parlay opportunity, but risk no more than a 3-Star Amount
|09-19-20||Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +7.5||Top||49-21||Loss||-101||5 h 56 m||Show|
14 University of Central Florida vs Georgia Tech
The No 14 UCF Knights will take to the field for the first time in the 2020 season. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went into Tallahassee as a 13-point underdog and upset the Florida State Seminoles 16-13. Their confidence will be high knowing they have another opportunity to upset a ranked opponent in the Knights. The Jackets find themselves installed as 7.5-point home underdogs with a over/under line of 63-points. These lines imply a final score of 35-28 with the Knights winning.Returning Starters Are a Huge Asset for the Jackets
The Jackets return nine offensive and 10 defensive starters. The biggest story coming out of last week’s win is all about the superior play of freshman quarterback Curtis Sims, who became the first-ever freshman QB to win a season opener and is the first fresh to start at Georgia Tech since Reggie Ball did in the 2003 season. He performed more like an experienced senior throwing for 277 passing yards on 24 completions, which is the highest since 2003. So, with all five offensive linemen back Sims will get solid protection and run blocking from this experienced unit and that is a major advantage for the Jackets in this matchup.
The defense is an even bigger story for the Jackets having held the Seminoles to just 307 total yards and 3.8 yards-per-play. The unit also forced three turnovers with their aggressive hard-hitting play. Linebacker Quez Jackson had an interception and led the team with nine tackles including 7 solo tackles. One fumble was forced and recovered by LB David Curry, who also had seven total tackles including four solo ones. The second fumble was recovered by defensive lineman Djimon Brooks, who also had three total tackles. There were three additional fumbles forced, but the Seminoles managed to recover them. In case you wanted to know, the most fumbles the Seminoles have had in a game is 7 and fumbles lost is 4 in all games played since 1990.
The Jacket defense played with a disciplined focus and were never caught out of position throughout the entire game. Head Coach Geoff Collins knows this is a solid recipe to contain the UCF juggernaut offense.A 76% ATS Betting System Supports the Jackets
This betting system has earned an amazing 59-25 against-the-spread (ATS) record for 76% winning tickets over the last 30 seasons. The system instructs us to be on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing an opponent in the first four weeks of the season that won their last three games of the previous season.
The key to this game and for the Jackets to cover the spread is to keep UCF from scoring more than 28 points and not get into a shooting match with them. In past games, in which the Jacks and their opponent both score 27 or more points they have gone a dismal 1-9 ATS for 10% winning bets. The 28-point level is a pivot point for the majority of NCAAF teams and not just for this matchup.
So, the projections call for the Jackets to score 27 or more points and have at least 5 more first downs than the Knights. In games played in which the Jackets scored 27 or more points and had more than 5 first downs than their opponent has seen them go on to record a 49-4 SU record and 40-11 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 10.3 points.
Take the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets plus the points as a Best Bet Upset Alert.
|09-19-20||Boston College +5.5 v. Duke||Top||26-6||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
Duke vs Boston College
September 19, 2020, 12:00 PM EST
Here is a solid betting system that supports BC and has earned an 86-34 ATS record good for 71% winning bets spanning the last five seasons. The system instructs us to bet against any team after being outgained by 125 total yards in their previous game and with an inexperienced QB in the first four weeks of the regular season. If the play against team (Duke) is a home favorite the system improves to 36-11 for 77% ATS winning bets.
The machine learning models project that BC will rush for at least 250 rushing yards and average at least 5.0 yards-per-rush. In past games in which BC met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 21-3 SU record and a 20-4 ATS record that covers the spread by an average of 10.3 points. If BC was installed as an underdog they have posted a 7-2 SU record and 9-0 ATS mark covering by an average of 16.3 points.
|09-17-20||Bengals +6 v. Browns||Top||30-35||Win||101||11 h 38 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Cincinnati vs Cleveland
8:20 PM EST, September 17, 2020
Here is a betting system that supports the Bengals and has earned a solid 103-52 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 1990 and instructs us to plat on road underdogs facing a conference foe that had a losing record in their previous season. This system has recorded a nice money-making 13-4 ATS record over the last three seasons and 26-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons.
The machine learning tools are projecting that the Bengals will gain at least 125 rushing yards and average at least 7 yards-per-pass attempt. In past games in which the Bengals have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 52-15-1 SU record for 78% wins and 49-17-2 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2000. The Browns are 2-29-1 SU and 8-24 ATS for 25% when they have allowed an opponent to meet or exceed those performance measures in games played since 2010.
|09-14-20||Steelers v. Giants +6||Top||26-16||Loss||-109||2 h 56 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Ny Giants
7:15 PM EST, September 14, 2020
Ny Giants tackle Nate Solder opted out of the season and there are three new offensive lineman set to start tonight. They are elite athletes and have excellent skills in first round draft pick Andrew Thomas 6-5 315 from Georgia, RT Cam Fleming 6-6 320 from Stanford, and center Nick Gates 6-5 307 from Nebraska. I do believe this youthful OL has the athleticism and quickness to contain the Steeler defensive front and open up holes for Barkley to dart through untouched. Once Barkley gets into the open field he is extremely difficult to bring down by any defensive unit. This will then open up play action pass plays catching the Steelers in man coverage or in Sam-Will blitz schemes.
From the machine learning tools and models the Giants are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards, have more first downs than the Steelers, and have more total offensive yards than the Steelers. In past games in which the Giants have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a solid 89-16 SU record and 85-20 ATS for 81% winning bets since 1990; 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS since 2015. The Steelers are 3-3-1 SU and 1-6 ATS the spread failing to cover by an average of 8 points when their opponent has gained 125 or more rushing yards and are installed as road favorites since 2015.
|09-13-20||Cowboys v. Rams +1||Top||17-20||Win||100||2 h 43 m||Show|
Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams
8:20PM EST, September 13, 2020
From the machine learning tools, the Rams are projected to score at least 27 points, average more than 7 yards-per-pass attempt, and gain 400 or more total offensive yards. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these three performance measures they are 48-20 ATS and 62-9 SU winning the game by an average of 12 points; 28-10-2 ATS when in home games and an amazing 12-1-1 ATS mark and covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points.
|09-13-20||Packers +2.5 v. Vikings||Top||43-34||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
Green Bay won both meetings against the Vikings and have many favorable matchups on both sides of the ball.
From the machine learning tools and models the Packers are projected to outgain the Vikings on the ground and have a better, more efficient yards-per-points ratio. In other words, the Packers will need fewer yards gained to score a single point on average. In past games in which the Packers met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a perfect 29-0 ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 15.6 points. Take the Packers as a 7-Star Upset Alert Titan
|09-13-20||Seahawks v. Falcons +1.5||Top||38-25||Loss||-110||3 h 46 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons
September 12, 2020, 1:00 PM EST
Kickoff - 1:00 PM EST, September 13, 2020
The Mercedes-Benz Stadium is one of the best venues in all of sports but will remain without fans for at least the first two home games of the Atlanta Flacons schedule. The Atlanta offense has always been dangerous for most opponents and will be better this season having added running back Todd Gurley through free agency and TE Hayden Hurst, who was acquired in a trade with Baltimore.The Falcons Running Game is Much Better
The Falcons running game ranked 30th in the NFL gaining just 1,361 rushing yards as compared to a league average of 1806 rushing yards. Further, the Falcons ranked 29th in the NFL with just 332 rushing attempts. They went 1-7 over the first eight games and fell behind early in games forcing them to abandon most or all the run plays. When an NFL team is behind in a game, especially by two or more scores, play action gets no respect from a defense and is simply a worthless formation.
Gurley has been banged up physically over his career, but still provides a new and real run threat for all defenses to respect. His presence will provide more opportunities to use play action pass routes, which is where the addition of Hurst and his above average speed will be a huge asset this season.Falcons Matt Ryan Will Be Better Protected
The running game fell into the statistical abyss for the Falcons, which put tremendous pressure on Matt Ryan to complete difficult passes and sustain scoring drives. The Falcons through the most passes in the NFL with a number no one really likes 666 throws form scrimmage. The Cincinnati Bengals were a distant second with 617 pass attempts and by comparison the terrific Baltimore Ravens offense that led the league in scoring ranked last with 439 pass attempts. So, the Falcons can expect a much better balance of run and pass plays making it far more difficult for defensive coordinators to prepare to defend.
Matt Ryan threw just 24 passes that were targeted down the deep middle of the field. The Tampa Bay Bucs ranked first with 37 throws in this category by way of comparison. With the addition of Hurst at TE and his speed it is a sure bet you will see the middle of the field exploited by the Falcons whenever they can get Hurst in man coverage by a linebacker. The Falcons ranked 17th in the NFL running 113 pass plays using play action and gained 827 yards from those plays. By comparison, Jared Goff and the Rams ran 194 play action plays and gained a league-best 1,564 passing yards. Gurley was part of that offense.What About the Team Trends?
Well, there are gaggles of them of ocurse being spit out of my vast NFL database that can go back to 1980 if it provides meaningful results. Coach Carroll is just 3-14 ATS in games played in September since being hired by the Seahawks; 2-10 ATS in road games that have occurred in the first two weeks of the season.
The Falcons are a stout 19-6 ATS in home games that occurred in the first two weeks of the season. Moreover, they are 4-0 ATS as home dogs in the first two weeks of the season spanning the last 10 seasons.How About Those Machine Learning Metrics We Love?
The Falcons are projected to execute at least 25 rushing plays, average at least 4.5 rushing-yards-per-attempt and attain a yards-per-point ratio of not higher than 11.5 in this matchup. The Falcons are 48-8 SU and 37-15-4 ATS for 71% winning bets in home games when they have averaged a minimum of 4.5 RYPA and executed at least 25 rushing plays. When they have achieved the rushing metrics and had a YPPT ratio of not more than 11.5, the Falcons have earned a perfect 16-0 ATS mark covering the number by an average of 12 points.
The Seahawks when traveling on the road are a near imperfect 1-10 SU and ATS and failing to cover the spread by an average of 15 points when they have allowed an opponent to rush the ball for a minimum of 25 attempts, gaining average of 4.5 RYPA, and allow an opponent YPPT ratio of 11.5 or lower.
|09-12-20||Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville||Top||21-35||Loss||-115||12 h 7 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Western Kentucky vs Louisville
8:00 PM EST, September 12, 2020
The Cardinals offense also has returning quarterback Micale Cunningham, who is a red-shirt junior and a duel run-pass threat. He has gained 979 rusing yards with 11 touchdowns and passed for 2,538 yards on 62% completions with 23 touchdowns, and 6 picks over his last two seasons. Despite these impressive stats, I see the offense struggling against a very fast and disciplined Hilltopper defensive unit. In order to contain a duel threat QB it is imperative for the defense to maintain their individual gap areas and not over react to Cunningham’s ball fakes – and the unit will do a great job.
From the machine learning tools and models the Hilltoppers are projected to gain an average of at least 6.5 yards per pass attempt and contain Louisville to fewer than 28 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 33-11-1 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and covered the spread by an average of 10 points. In 2018, they had Louisville on the ropes leading 14-6 starting the fourth quarter, before Louisville scored 14 points in the fourth to win 20-17. WKU was a 21 point underdog and they did exceed the performance measures mentioned above.
|09-10-20||Texans v. Chiefs -9||Top||20-34||Win||100||10 h 29 m||Show|
2020 NFL season Week 1
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs
8:20 PM EST Thursday, September 10, 2020
John Ryan founder of John Ryan Sports
@johnryansports1 10-Star Titan on the KC Chiefs
The NFL season starts this Thursday with the defending Super Bowl 54 Champion Chiefs hosting the AFC South Divisional Champion Houston Texans. This is also a rematch of last year’s Chiefs 51-31 win over the Texans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In that game the Chiefs were installed as 10-point home favorites and the game total line was 51 points. In Week 1, the Chiefs are favored by an identical 10-point betting line and the total has creeped up to 55 points.Do Defending Super Bowl Champs have a Celebration Hangover in Week 1?
No all defending Super Bowl Champions have started the following season with a home game. There have been 16 SB Champions, who have started the season with a home celebration and are 14-2 straight-up (SU), 11-4-1 against-the-spread (ATS), and near-even 7-8-1 ‘OVER’ record. Since 2002, this is the first time that a reigning Champion has been installed as a double-digit favorite. Reigning Champions installed as favorites are 12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS, and 8-6 ‘UNDER’ in Week 1 and when favored by four or more points sport an impressive 9-1 SU record, 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets, and 6-4 tilt to the ‘UNDER’. So, no hangover whatsoever for the home fed reigning Champions.
The news remains positive for the reigning champions as they sport a 12-2 SU record, 9-4-1 ATS, and 7-6-1’ UNDER’ record when facing a playoff team from last season in Week 1. Opponents in Week 1 that were a previous season playoff team and facing a reigning Champion that is not in their division are a money-burning 2-14 SU, 4-11-1 ATS for 27% winning bets, and an 8-7-1 ‘OVER’ record in Week 1.Can the Chiefs Offense Match the 2019 Season?
This offense is unstoppable when Reid’s play calling is clicking with this offensive sets. The Chiefs ranked 5th averaging 28.2 points-per-game with 30 receiving touchdowns, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 1 kickoff return for touchdown. They led the NFL making 34 field goal attempts on 38 tries and reflects the Chiefs struggles at times in the red zone. In their games, the Chiefs just knew that putting points on the scoreboard despite failed red zone conversions, was the recipe to win games. The Chiefs will average more points-per-game this season just by cutting down their field goal attempts in the red zone to 25.NFL Drive Averages in 2019
The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL scoring on 49.4% of all drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive with the Baltimore Ravens ranking first and scoring points on 52% of their drives and averaging 2.62 points-per-drive. The Chiefs ranked fourth-best in the NFL taking care of the football and had a turnover on only 8% of their drives.Can the Houston Texans Defense Stop the Chiefs Offense?
The Chiefs offense is designed to maximize yards-after-the-catch (YAC) much ion the way the San Francisco 49ers West Coast offense was designed and the same West Coast scheme Reid ran while the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. The number one Texans defensive weakness was ranking 30th in the NFL allowing 2,067 YAC.
So, double digit favorites that have averaged at least 11 yards-per-completion spanning their last eight games and facing an opponent, who made the playoffs last season and allowed at least 375 points in their previous season are a solid 72-54-2 ATS for 57% winning bets and 116-12 SU for 90% wins and winning these games by an average of 15.1 points-per-game. Last, if this game takes place on a Thursday night, the double-digit favorites are 6-0 SU winning by an average of 16.5 points and 5-0-1 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 7.77 points.A Machine Learning Method that Produces Winning Results
There are more than 200 separate parameters in my NFL database and many of my machine learning tools combine many of these parameters that work well together in identifying ATS winners. These types of advanced mathematical applications are applied in the same way in many other industries, for instance, the Life Sciences and Biotech sectors. The combinatorial algorithms, for instance, will look to combine a combination of parameters (column names) that serve to optimize total return-on-investment (ROI) exactly in the same manner that I use them in stock market projections.Yards-Per-Drive Has Strong Predictive Value
For this matchup, the Chiefs are projected to average at least 3.1 points-per-drive in this game against the Texans. The Chiefs are 17-5 SU and 17-5 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have met or exceeded a 3.1 points-per-drive ratio in games played over the last three seasons. Further, when installed as a home favorite and averaging a minimum of 3.1 points-per-drive ratio they are a resounding 9-1 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 8-2 ATS for 80% and covering the spread by an average of 11.1 points.
Moreover, the Chiefs are projected to score 27 or more points and outgain the Texans by at least 80 yards. In past games where the Chiefs have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to earn a 64-3 SU record winning the games by an average of 19.6 points and a 61-4-2 ATS record good for 94% winning bets and covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points.
By knowing these projections, you will find yourself watching the game and monitoring their progress. I also provide situational trends at the end of each quarter that can also serve to provide even more money-making betting opportunities that have proven track records.
|09-05-20||Arkansas State v. Memphis -18.5||Top||24-37||Loss||-110||10 h 44 m||Show|
John Ryan Sports
Arkansas State vs Memphis Tigers
8:00 PM EST, September 5, 2020
I wrote about the immense value of returning starters on offense, especially when four or five of the previous season’s starting offensive line returns for this season. Memphis has this in place to start their season and it will pay them handsome dividends over the first four weeks of the season.
From the machine learning tools, Memphis is projected to average at least 9.0 yards-per-pass-play and out-gain Arkansas State by at least 200 yards. In past games in which Memphis met or exceeded these projections they have gone on to earn a 13-1 ATS record for 93% winning bets that has also covered the spread by an average of 20.5 points.
|09-05-20||SMU v. Texas State +24||Top||31-24||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
SMU Mustangs vs Texas State
September 5, 2020, 4:30 PM EST
From the machine learning tools and projections Texas State is projected to pass for 75 fewer yards than SMU will pass for and that SMU will NOT exceed 31 or more points. In past Texas State games where this pair of measures were met or exceeded they are 19-10 ATS for 66% winning bets; 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when installed as a double digit dog.
If you do like teasers, consider a 6-point teaser adding 6-points to the current total and adding 6-points to the current line. This makes the total about 72.5/73 points playing ‘UNDER’ and the T-State a 29/30-poit underdog.
SMU has not done well in games expected to be high scoring and are 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last three seasons.
|09-03-20||South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss||Top||32-21||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
The South Alabama Jaguars, who are members in the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference will travel to take on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, who are members of the West Division of the 14-team Conference-USA. The Eagles find themselves installed as double-digit home favorites against the Jaguars, who won just two games last season.The Value of Returning Starters for the Eagles
During the first four weeks of the NCAA Football season knowing the teams that have the majority of starters returning from last season is a major advantage when facing a team that is re-building form the previous year. There are exceptions like the Top-5 programs in the country, who simply see their players move on to the NFL and then plug-and-play with new 5-Star recruits. The Eagles return 14 total starters with eight on offense including quarterback Jack Abraham and six on defense. Abraham had a solid 2019 season completing 68% of his pass attempts for 3,496 yards including 19 touchdowns. He did throw 15 interceptions, but that number of mistakes will drop given he has another full season of expereince under his belt.
Even more important than having the starting quarterback returning is the number of starters returning from the offensive line. The Eagles have four of the five offensive linemen back this season. The offensive line is the unit that requires the greatest amount of coordinated technique and chemistry. Having 4 or 5 starters returning on the offensive line provides the foundation for the entire offense to be even more efficient than they were at the end of the previous season. The Value of Returning Starters for the Jaguars
The 2019 season saw the Jaguars go a horrid 2-10, but they did earn respectable 7-5 against-the-spread (ATS) record. Head Coach Steve Campbell is just 5-19 straight up and 13-11 ATS in his first two seasons but has a 13 returning starters with seven on offense including quarterback Desmond Trotter and six on defense. The defense is returning the top-5 tacklers and gives reason for the defensive unit to be significantly better in 2020.
The Jaguars ranked fifth in the Sun Belt Conference allowing an averaging of 409 offensive yards-per-game, sixth allowing 192 rushing yards-per-game, and fourth allowing 217 passing yards-per-game. Having the best defensive players returning that accounted for 65% of last season’s production is key as are the seven starters returning on offense that accounted for 73% of last season’s total production.The Betting Public and Irrational Exuberance
I key handicapping method is to track the percentage of wagers being made and the total amounts of money those betting tickets add up to. In this game 78% of all bets being made are on the Eagles resulting in 22% of bets in support of the Jaguars. The line for this game opened with the Eagles favored by 14 points and despite having a 3:1 margin in bets made on them, the line has dropped to 13.5 points. The half-point decline in the line is a mall amount, but it is far more meaningful when the overwhelming number of bets are on the dog. This implies that the large bettors, so-called Wise Guys, are on the Jaguars and their combined money of their bets is offsetting the small public bets.What Does the Machine Learning Tools Have to Say?
As the season rolls on you will notices that there is a pivot point in scoring that when exceeded favors that team and works against their opponent. Such is the case in this matchup as the Eagles are 171-28-1 straight-up (SU) for 86% wins and 131-41-3 ATS for 76.2% winning bets when they score 28 or more points in games played since 1980; 49-16 SU for 75% wins and 45-19-1 ATS for 70.3% winning bets since 2010; 16-2 SU for 89% wins and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets over the last three seasons.
The Jaguars are a money-burning 8-54 SU for 13% wins and 21-39-2 ATS for 35% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points since 2011; 3-23 SU for 12% wins and 10-15 ATS for 40% winning bets over the last three seasons.
There is more though, then just using 28 points as a pivot to determine a betting opportunity. The machine learning summary shows that the Jaguars are just 1-7 SU for 13% wins, but 7-1 ATS for 89% winning bets when scoring at least 24 points and are installed as a double-digit road underdog. The Eagles are 9-9 SU for 50% wins and 4-14 ATS for just 22% winning bets installed as a double-digit home favorite and allowing that opponent to score at least 24 points.
|02-02-20||49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs||Top||20-31||Loss||-109||11 h 21 m||Show|
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
6:30 PM EST, Sunday, February 2, 2020
NFL 10-Star Best Bet on the San Francisco 49ers
I will not waste your time with superfluous narrative. The 49ers will win by 13 or more points and this is based first on the machine learning projections and then my own fundamental research and indepth matchup analyses. On paper the 49ers are the best team on both sides of the ball. I hear a few of you moaning and wish you could debate this with over a few craft beers.
The Chiefs linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Damien Wilson are not getting it done this season. I never intend or would want to put down any athlete at any level of the game played, but they are one of the worst duos in the NFL this season by many measures. Wilson is a former Cowboy, who has been torched this season as a Chief and allowed a 115 passer rating, which was the eighth worst mark in the NFL for linebackers with at least 200 snaps play this season.
Hitchens got a big contract via free-agency by the Chiefs, but he steadily became a target by opponents whenever possible. He si very vulnerable and exposed in this game whenever he will lineup on the perimeter to cover aany of the 49ers running backs in man coverage.
When the Chiefs bring in their third linebacker in Reggie Ragland it is almost always to help stop the run. However, teams have used play action pass so that the trio of Chief linebaqckers do not get the depth necessary to cover the the middle of the field. This will be something to watch in the game for sure and expect Dee Dee Samuel to be targeted in these prime situations for the 48ers.
George Kittle will be a nightmare in any coverage situation the Chiefs decide to use. The main reason is that the Chiefs lost their starting safety Juan Thornhill, who tore his left ACL in the final game of the regular season. His absence is going to make it even tougher for the Chiefs to adjust to what the 49ers bring to the huddle and pre-snap. The Chiefs faced the 21 personnel on 102 snaps and used five and six defensive backs in 48 of those snaps. The 49ers opponents used four defensive backs on 77% of the 21 personnel plays run by the 49ers and many of those defenses simply stayed in their base defense,.
The bottom line is that this will put Kittle in optimal high-percentage man-coverage situations. This is one of the reasons I like the risk of taking Kittle as the MVP of this Super Bowl even though there has never been a tight end that has won the MVP – not even Gronk.
The 49ers have run the most basic of plays and the ones I still remember repeating 50-timres in High Svhool practices. The basic trap play was used on third-and-long situations (less than eight yards) and ran to perfection. Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine should have recognized this since he ran these exact elementary plays to several State Championships at Central Bucks West High School, a Philadelphia suburb.
The 49ers do a great job in getting offensive leverage on a defense by moving either Kittle or FB Kyle Juszczvk in motion or moving one of them and then the other seconds prior to the snap. This allows Jimmy G to see where the weakness will be in the defense and is similar to what the Patriots have used with their tight ends for two decades.
The Mesh offensive scheme has been around for about the last 10 seasons in both College and NFL playbooks and I expect to see the 49ers use to exploit the middle of the field and put even more pressure on the Chiefs linebackers. The all curl scheme looks to exploit a defender in a 2-on-1 advantage whereas the mesh scheme focuses on the middle of the field and two shallow crossing routes that generally have a 3-on-2 advantage for the offense. The scheme also includes a vertical route with a WR in a favorable matchup or for the running back, who will be covered by a slower linebacker. Jimmy G will assign the big play route prior to the snap after seeing the defensive alignment. This is where I believe the 49ers will have big play opportunities or a result that keeps the chains moving checking down to the crossing routes.
The 49ers have the best front four in the game with all four linemen capable of sacking the quarterback. They recorded 57 sacks with Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and DeForest Buckner all having at least 7.5 sacks this season. Teams in the Super Bowl, who recorded 55 or more sacks in the regular season and the playoffs are 6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl and the ‘UNDER’ is 5-2.
Koepka Birdies vs Kittle Receptions
A fun prop bet is for Kittle to have more receptions than PGA Tour Golfer Brooks Koepka has birdies. The Phoenix Open is taking place with the Fenway-like Stadium surrounding the par-3 17th hole. The course is going to play tougher than in previous years and it will be more difficult to go low. The key point is birdies, which does not include Eagles, Double Eagles, or Holes-in-one. There are a few Eagle holes on the course so that would then make it even harder to make six or more birdies.
St. Johns Points vs Kittle Reception Yards
Another one I like here is I think Kittle will go over 100 receiving yards in a losing or winning cause and we are getting paid well to assume this risk with Kittle +3.5 underdog and +105 juice.
Travis Kelce and his MVP Bid
There are 20 prop bets on Travis Kelce at the 5Dimes sportsbook. If you like the Chiefs then Kelce will be a big part of the game plan against an extremely strong and lightning-fast 49ers defensive unit. If the 49ers are successful at containment on Chiefs quarterback Mahomes, then Kelce will be the relief valve receiver and has the potential for a huge game.
I do not normally like laying -170 wood on any prop bet but in this game, the odds are high that Kelce will exceed the 5.5 receptions line. Betting ‘OVER’ 76.5 receiving yards paying only -105 juice is a no-brainer and is better risk-reward than the ‘OVER’ 5.5 receptions. It would be hard to imagine a game in which Kelce had more than 77 receiving yards and five or fewer catches.
I like Kelce to score a TD in the first half and receiving +280 NFL Super Bowl odds in return.
Then the fun props taking Kelce at -2.5 and -145 juice to have more receiving yards than Duston Johnson’s score in the final round at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
The MVP Bets
George Kittle is ranked as the 4th most-likely MVP recipient at +900 at 5Dimes. Travis Kelce is ranked 9th most-likely MVP recipient at +1900. The last MVP bet I will make is on 49ers rookie defensive lineman Nick Bosa, who is 7th most-likely to win the MVP at +1850.
|01-19-20||Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs||Top||24-35||Loss||-120||2 h 12 m||Show|
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs
3:05 PM ESTPM EST, January 19, 2020
Titans Offense is a Double-Edged Sword
The Chiefs are in a classic Catch-22 situation. Should they choose to attempt to contain Henry they will expose themselves to the passing arm of Ryan Tannehill, who was atop the NFL with a 135 quarterback Passer Rating Index and net yards-power-pass-attempt. It has been a long time since a quarterback led the league in both categories since throwing down field will logically cause more incomplete passes and potential interceptions.
Tannehill has not had to win games with his arm so far in the playoffs, which gives little scouting intelligence for the Chiefs to prepare for in this game. The Chiefs know that play action pass will be part of the TItans offensive scheme since they led the NFL with a total of 1,568 passing yards using play action.What do the Chiefs do when it is second down and fewer than five yards?
The Chiefs will be at their most vulnerable in second and shorter than five yards. If the Titans use play action and the Chiefs are playing run stop it will leave every receiver on the field in man coverage with no safety help. Tannehill has been incredibly accurate with throws of any length and he will exploit any man-coverage situation downfield.
If the Chiefs show blitz and back out and the Titans are running the ball behind Henry the result will be a first down. Henry is gaining chunk yards meaning big gains that are rarely seen from run plays and more common from pass receptions and yards after the catch.
Tannehill and the Titan receivers led the NFL in average yards gained using play action by a wide margin. They used play action 124 times, which ranked 15th most in the NFL, but gained the most passing yards.Are There Any Betting Systems?
This situational betting system has earned a solid 79-44-2 against-the-spread (ATS) record spanning the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to be on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that has a defense that allows an average of between 335 and 370 yards-per-game on the season and is facing an elite team that is gaining an average of 370 yards-per-game on the season.A Few Extra-Points
From the predictive side of things, there is high probability that the Titans gain 100 or more rushing yards and teams in past Championship games that have attained this measure are a stout 24-13 SU and 24-13 ATS since 2000 including road warriors sporting a 7-8 SU record and an eye-popping 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning NFL picks.
|01-13-20||Clemson v. LSU -5||25-42||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
Clemson vs LSU
8:00 PM EST, Monday, January 13, 2020
10-Star Best Bet on the LSU Tigers and a 7-Star on the ‘OVER’
The Defense Wins Championship adage has not been present at the College Football Playoff era and it is unlikely to show up tonight. Clemson has the expereince of the bright lights playing in the National Championship game for the four time in the past five years. The LSU Tigers, or Bayou Bengals, are battle-tested and will not wilt under the heat of the bright lights. Head coach Orgeron has his players respect and trust to the fullest and has Heisman winner Joe Burrows under center, who passed for 5,208 passing yards including 55 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
Clemson’s secondary was the best in the nation, but they have not faced the likes of what LSU brings to this game. LSU scored the most points with 684 or 48.9 points-per-game of the 130 D-1 programs in the nation and they did it in the SEC, which is the toughest conference in the country. Their defense did not suffer because of the offensive scoring machine. They ranked 29th ins coring defense allowing 303 total points or 21.6 points-per-game.
Burrows ranked best in the nation completing an insane 77.6% of his pass attempts, touchdowns with 55, and overall passing efficiency rating of 204.6 for the season. By comparison Trevor Lawrence passed for 3,431 yards, completed 67.6% of his pass attempts including 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and a 173.2 quarterback efficiency rating. That is an excellent season, but is nowhere close to the level that Burrows has played at consistently for the entire season.
The Bengals have two extraordinarily gited wide receivers in Fred Biletnikoff award winner JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson, who both caught 19 touchdown passes this season. Jefferson would have been a deserving winner of the award for best wide receiver in the country.
Let us get to some team trends from the trusted database. This situational betting system has earned a 43-16-3 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on a team that has won at least 75% of their games in the current season and are facing an opponent that has won at least 80% of their game sin the current seasons and have beaten the spread by at least 49 points spanning their last five games. This record zooms to 25-6 ATS for 81% winning bets when out team has won 85% or more their games and to 13-3-2 ATS for 81.2% when they have not lost a game on the season.
This betting system has posted a 21-10-1 ‘OVER’ record when our team has won 85% or more of their game son the season.
From the predictive side, the Bengals are 41-2 SU, 28-13-2 ATS for 68% and the ‘Over’ has won the money with a 32-9-2 record when they have scored 35 or more points and passed for at least 9.5 yards-per-pass-attempt. They are 9-2 ATS when scoring 28 or more points this season.
So, play a 10-Star amount on the LSU Tigers (Bayou Bengals) on the line and a 7-Star amount on the ‘OVER’. No need to play the parlay, but if you cannot resist, play no more than a 3-Star amount on the parlay.
|01-11-20||Titans v. Ravens -9.5||Top||28-12||Loss||-110||5 h 52 m||Show|
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
The line for this Divisional Playoff game opened with the Baltimore Ravens as a 10-point favorite and there has been a steady flow of bets on the Tennessee Titans that have pushed the line lower to 9.5 points across the marketplace as shown on the SBR NFL odds board. The Heritage Sportsbook has already moved the line to 9-points with only -105 juice.
When ever the public sentiment is squarely on one team in the NFL it will result in the that team failing to cover the spread far more often than cover it. It is even worse for them when the ‘Joes’ are backing an underdog. The Titans win over the Patriots was terrific for the team and franchise, but this will make the third week in a row they have had to travel and now they face the best team in the NFL, who had the week off resting.
I get it that the Titans are the darlings of the NFL having knocked off Darth Vader and the Evile Empire and that Derrick Henry looks like a run away unstoppable freight train. I will predict with a high degree of certainty that he will not rush for over 100 yards in this game.What Can the Ravens Do to Stop Henry?
The most surprising situation in the Titans win last week was that the Patriots head coach Bill Bellichick did not anticipate the Titans commitment to the run game. The adjustments that the defense did make failed to contain their ground attack.
To stop any power running back like Henry there is one simple truth. A defense must get penetration and pressure into the backfield to prevent Henry from accelerating through the A or B gaps. The Titans were not doing anything fancy or tricky and they executed the most basic fundamental set of riun plays to perfection. However, the Ravens defense does have the players to pressure the gaps and not allow Henry to get a head of steam before getting to the second level of defenders. It sounds odd, but the Ravens defense will force the Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is top-ranked in quarterback efficiency this season, to defeat them with his arm.Are There Any Betting Systems?
This situational betting system has been around for along time and it has earned an outstanding 18-6 against-the-spread (ATS) record. The system requires us to bet against a road underdog of 4 to 11 points and is coming two consecutive road wins including a 17-5 ATS mark when the road warrior has a winning record.A Few Extra-Points
· The Ravens are 7-0 ATS when facing a defense that has allowed 61% or higher pass completions in the second half of this season.
Harbaugh is 25-12 ATS following a game in which his team had 150 or fewer passing yards.
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +1.5||Top||17-9||Loss||-115||5 h 48 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles
Even the massive mismatches of the Seahawk wide recievers against the Eagles secondary will be minimized if the defensive line and stop the run and contain Wilson.
From the predictive side fo this game the Eagles will out gain the Seahawks by at least 80 yards in total offense and will have fewer turnovers. When the Eagles have attained this in previous home games they have gone on to a jaw-dropping 39-0 straight-up and 38-1 against-the-spread (ATS) and covered the spread by an average of 16 points!Take the Philadelphia Eagles and bet them as a 7-Star Titan
|01-05-20||Vikings +9 v. Saints||Top||26-20||Win||100||2 h 31 m||Show|
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
NFL Wild Card Round
1:00 PM EST, Saturday, January 5, 2020
7-Star Wager on the Vikings
Some quick Hitters:
Saints are 17-34 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.
From the predictive side of things the Vikings are 30-15-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and gain more rushing yards than their opponent including a 22-2 ATS record when scoring at least 22 or more points.
Bet the Minnesota Vikings as a 7-Star Titan Bet
|01-04-20||Titans v. Patriots -4.5||Top||20-13||Loss||-110||27 h 48 m||Show|
Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots
The public sentiment is that the Brady-Belichick era is OVER and the gold-plated wheel chair has been ordered for both of them by the Kraft family. Ha Ha. But seriously, how many times over the past 20 seasons have we herd the demise and that this is the year the Patriots are not the Patriots. Granted, this will be the biggest test of coaching genius for Belichick, but he has one of the best passing defenses in the NFL.
I have drawn upon the connection to and the similarity of being bullish on a stock to being bullish on a sports team. A stock like Apple that has been in a bullish uptrend for several months and reached all-time highs in today’s price action will have pullbacks and corrections of the major gains made this year. These price declines do not indicate that the positive trend in prices has ended, but that price levels had become too expensive and reflected too much positive optimism for the future earnings of the company.
The New England Patriots are the sports team version of Apple. There have been many times over the years where negative news caused a severe price correction in Apple stock. Those price declines proved to be awesome buying opportunities in the face of highly negative sentiment. This is exactly where the Patriots are right now.Was Not the Dolphins Loss at Home a Sure Sign of the Patriot Demise?
In the NFL when a double-digit underdog pulls off the upset it is always shocking news to most. However, the Dolphins had gone 5-4 in their last nine games and won their last two of three games. So, it was not the same Dolphins that were shutout in the first meeting between these two teams.
Vegas did not tell us that the Patriots would win by the point spread of 17-points last week. What the line does tell us is where the lines makers believe there will be equal action on both sides of the ledger. Sol the 17-point NFL betting line seen on the NFL odds boards reflected human betting behavior and the lines maker anticipating a ton of bets being placed on the Patriots if they released a line that was in the 14.5-point area.
So, now the betting public has shifted gears and thrown the baby out with the bath water – no, I am not calling Tommy a baby – and the line now is cheaply priced and offers us an after Christmas deal of the year to get on the Patriots.
Take the Focus off 42-year-old Tom Brady
Let us face facts that Brady has had one of the weakest wide receiver corps of his career. In 2018 receivers dropped 25 balls for a 4.;6% drop rate and in 2019 receivers dropped 34 balls for a 5.9% drop rate. He leads the league with 40 throw-away balls as compared to just 22 last season.
The media says that it is a combination of the offensive line, wide receivers, and a diminished skill set of a 42-year old quarterback. Well, then I ask of these brilliant minds why has the offensive line given Brady an average of 2.5 seconds of pocket time as compared to 2.4 seconds in 2018. A tenth of a second is an hour for an NFL quarterback and often the difference between a sack and a completed pass play.
At the end of this game the Patriots will have won because of their defense.A Few Extra-Points
· The Patriots are 20-9 against-the-spread (ATS) and covered these games by an average of 6.53 points-per-game in games taking place in the second-half of the season and the playoffs when facing a team with a modest win percentage between 51 and 60% since 2001.
Here is an awesome betting system that does well using the money line and against the spread and has earned a 32-4 SU record for 89% winning bets using the money line over the past 10 seasons. Play on favorites after Week 8 using the money line that are coming a off one or more consecutive ‘over’ games and is a strong defensive team allowing between 14 and 18 points-per-game and are facing an average defensive team allowing between 18 and 23 points-per-game.
|01-02-20||Boston College +8 v. Cincinnati||Top||6-38||Loss||-110||3 h 59 m||Show|
Boston College vs Cincinnati
3:00 PM EST, Thursday, January 2, 2020
7-Star Wager on the Boston College Eagles
This betting system has earned a 20-11 STS record good for 64.5% winning bets in the 2019 season.
BC is 42-25 ATS when facing an opponent with a 75% or higher win percentage since 2000 including 16-2 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 12 points-per-game when scoring 28 or more points.
|01-01-20||Baylor v. Georgia -4||Top||14-26||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
Baylor vs Georgia
The bet is Georgia as a 7-Star Titan bet and the ‘UNDER’ for a 7-Star Bet. The optional plays for consideration are to bet a no more than a 3-Star amount using the reverse parlay strategy that pays 4:1. If you want the detailed info on how a reverse parlay works please contact me on Twitter at @johnRyanSports1. The other alternative is to bet a 7-Star amount on the 7-point teaser lines that would make Georgia a 3-point underdog and raise the total to 48 points – but both sides must win for the teaser bet to win.
The Georgia Bulldogs are a solid 33-17 against-the-spread (ATS) in road games when facing good rushing teams that are averaging at least 4.75 rushing yards-per-attempt; 11-2 ATS in road games after a game where they forced one or zero turnovers in games played spanning the last three seasons.
Georgia head coach Rhule is 10-1 ‘UNDER’ when facing stromg ball control teams that are averaging at least 32 minutes-per-game in all games he has coached.
|01-01-20||Minnesota v. Auburn -6.5||Top||31-24||Loss||-115||5 h 50 m||Show|
No. 12 Auburn vs No. 19 Minneosta
1:00 PM EST, Wednesday, January 1, 2020
7-Star Wager on the Auburn Tigers
Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix made incredible progress and learned the playbook quickly in his first season. His season stats are not that impressive, but he steadily improved each week. He did not throw an interception over his last four games and only one in the last six games since throwing three interceptions against Florida. The Tigers are a young team and will only be better next season. Sophomore wide receiver Seth Williams is the top target for Nix with 55 catches for 801 yards and eight touchdowns while sophomore JaTarvious Whitlow (739 yards, nine touchdowns) and freshman D.J. Williams (387, two) , who also leads the ground attack.
From the predictive side of things, the Tigers have a high probability of scoring 28 or more points in this matchup. The Tigers are 48-22-3 Against the spread (ATS) when they have scored 28 or more points since 2010; 10-2 ATS last two season; 8-3 ATS in Bowl Games.
The Gophers are just 21-35-2 ATS when allowing an opponent to score 28 or more points since 2010; 3-6-1 ATS the last two seasons; 2-5 ATS in Bowl Games.
Plus, teams playing in bowl games that are favored by seven or more points and are ranked 10 or worse and facing an opponent that is ranked lower (greater than 10) are 6-2 ATS for 75% winning bets.
|12-31-19||Kansas State +3 v. Navy||Top||17-20||Push||0||4 h 4 m||Show|
Kansas State Wildcats vs No. 23 Navy Midshipmen
3:45 PM EST, Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Memorial Stadium, Memphis TN
10-Star Wager on the Kansas State Wildcats
The line for this game opened with the Kansas State Wildcats as a 2-point favorite on December 8. The ‘Pros and Joes’ immediately jumped on Navy and their bets pushed the line to ‘pick’ within the first 24 hours. Within the next day the line was moved another 2-points to its’ current price tag of Navy favored by 2.5 points on the NCAA Football odds board.
Every Bowl season there are few lines that are just not good ones that are put out by the lines makers and this was on eof them this year. The failure was incorrectly anticipating the public consensus for both teams. The betting public does not place bets on the armed forces teams when facing a Major
The books will lose money on this game. The smart money that got Navy as a 2-point dog are now buying back their bets getting the Wildcats as 2.5-point underdogs and giving them a juicy 4.5-point window to win both of their bets. The second problem for the books is that the betting consensus has now shifted in favor of the Wildcats with 53% of the bets on them and 47% on the Midshipmen. So, the books are holding most betting tickets being Navy between a 2-point dog and ‘pick’ and the Wildcats between ‘pick and 2.5 points underdogs.Are There Any Game Breakers?
The Wildcats have the edge over Navy with true freshman Joshua Youngblood, who earned Big-12 Special Teams Player of the Year and has had three returns for touchdowns in his last four games. There is a great chance he will do it again in this game so if you can fid a prop bet that he returns a kick for a touchdown bet on it.
The Wildcats defense is another game breaker as the rank best in the country in third down situations allowing opponent to convert just 25% of the third downs. The unit will look to keep Navy in third and long situations to put even more pressure on Perry to keep the chains moving.A Few Extra Points
· The Wildcats head coach Klieman is 6-0 against-the-spread (ATS) after playing a home game.
· The Midshipmen’s head coach Niumatalolo is 4-13 ATS after outgaining the previous opponent by 225 or more yards.
This money line system has earned a remarkable 77% winning record of 37-11 and has made the $1,000 bettor a huge $31,250 profit over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet against all teams after Week 7 with a money line of +135 to -155 (NAVY in this matchup) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 230 or more rushing-yards-per-game and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 rushing yards-per-game, and after outrushing opponent by at least 125 or more yards I their previous game.
|12-30-19||Illinois +7 v. California||Top||20-35||Loss||-113||4 h 13 m||Show|
Illinois vs California
This situational betting system has earned a solid 35-30 using the Money Line good for 50% winning bets and has made the $100 bettor a robust profit of $4,120 over the last 10 seasons. The system requires us to bet on neutral field underdogs that are facing an opponent that has won two out of their last three games in a non-conference matchup. The betting system improves to 18-12 and making $3,380 for the $100 bettor when both teams are from the Power-5 Conferences.
From the predictive side of things, California is a momey-losing 9-24 straight-up (SU) and losing $3,000 per $100 bet when they have been held to between 300 and 350 total yards; 1-6 SU when they gained between 150 and 200 net passing yards in game splayed over the last two seasons.
|12-29-19||Eagles v. Giants +4||Top||34-17||Loss||-115||4 h 3 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs NY Giants
Wentz is coming off a monster game against the Cowboys where he did put the team on his back and carried to the victory. He threw for 319 passing yards and completed an outstanding 31 of his 40 pass attempts for an insane 77.5% complete percentage. He earned the second-highest average passing yards-per-attempt on the season at 8.48 and only the 9.56 he earned in Week1 against Washington was higher.
In a season in which he had few reliable receivers he completed 64.4% of his pass attempts for 3,750 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
The biggest problems that Wentz and the Eagles offense faced each week was the inability to establish a significant ground attack that then would open up the play-action pass plays where Wentz would have extra time to survey the field knowing he had man-coverages. The Eagles rank 15th gaining 902 passing yards on play-action routes this season.
The Eagles running back Jordan Howard will be back in action to provide much-needed running yards. However, the Eagles took a big blow last week when Zack Ertz suffered a fractured rib. He did not practice Christmas Day and he is going to be a possible game-time decision. Anyone, who has had bruised ribs knows how painful it is to even take a breath so, I believe he will not be in action for this game.
Ertz leads the team with 135 targets, 88 receptions, and 916 receiving yards and then there is a huge drop-off to the second-best statistical receiver. So, without Ertz, Wentz now has no trusted receiver in the lineup. The Giants defense will be able to bring the safeties up to the box and attack the ground game and look to put pressure on Wentz to force throws.Here is a Nice Betting System
This betting system is simple to use and understand. It has earned a 23-3-1 ATS record good for 89% winning bets since 1989. Play on any losing record team after Week 8 and is playing an opponent off an upset win as a home underdog and has a win percentage between 51 and 60% on the season.
This betting system has earned an incredible 10-1 ATS record that has covered the spread by 10.7 points-per-game since 2010.
|12-29-19||Redskins v. Cowboys -12||Top||16-47||Win||100||2 h 1 m||Show|
Dallas vs Washington
Dallas suffered its fourth loss in their last five games with another brainless performance in a 17-9 setback at Philadelphia last weekend to fall a game behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. Even during their hapless stretch in the second-half of the season they remained in control of their playoff destiny due to the fact they play in the NFC Least Division. Now they need to win this game and get help from the Giants to upset the Eagles – which just might happen.
Not that he will be thinking about this, but Prescott needs 305 passing yards to surpass the single-season record held by Tony Romo, who had 4,903 passing yards. Facing the Redskins defense he just might due to as long as his ailing shoulder holds up in this game. So, look for him to get the ball out fast on quick-hitters and using the slant routes many times.
From the predictive side of things, the Cowboys are 15-5-1 ATS and have covered the spread by an average of eight points when they have scored more than 28 points as a home favorite of at least 7.5 points and had fewer turnovers than the opponent.
|12-29-19||Jets +1 v. Bills||Top||13-6||Win||100||1 h 20 m||Show|
NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills
The Jets have won five of their last seven games but a poor start to the season was too much to overcome and sealed a ninth straight season. The league's seventh-ranked defense allowing 324.1 yards allowed per game helped the Jets to a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh last week to hurt the Steelers' playoff chances. So, the Jets have been playing to win over the second-half of the season and will do the same today.
Despite the Bills starters seeing the majority of snaps I believe that the Jets will win this game. The Bills know they are either playing at Kansas City or at Houston next week and it will be very difficult for them to to focus on today’s game sine it is truly meaningless.
|12-29-19||Dolphins v. Patriots -16.5||Top||27-24||Loss||-109||1 h 40 m||Show|
New England vs Miami
This situational betting system has earned a solid 35-13 against-the-spread mark (ATS) good for 65% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on home team that scored at least 35 points in the previous same-season matchup and with the foe coming off a home win.
From the predictive side of things, Patriots are 9-1 ATS when their defense has allowed 200 or fewer net passing yards in games played over the last three seasons. They are 51-14-2 ATS in home games in which they allowed not more than 75 rushing yards.
The Patriots are 35-3 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 15 points when they have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards and outgained them by more than 150 total yards.
|12-28-19||Iowa State +4 v. Notre Dame||Top||9-33||Loss||-115||2 h 38 m||Show|
Iowa State vs Notre Dame
The Cyclones are 9-1 against-the-spread (ATS) when the have played an elite level team sporting a win percentage at 75% or higher on the season in games played over the last three seasons; 12-3 ATS when facing a teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points-per-game on the season over the last three seasons.
Notre Dame has been a money-burning 8-20 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games in games played since 1992.
Cyclones head coach Campbell is a solid 15-3 ATS facing teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more points-per-game.
|12-28-19||Memphis v. Penn State -7||Top||39-53||Win||100||1 h 9 m||Show|
No. 10 Penn State vs No. 17 Memphis
Memphis had its’ best season in program history winning 12 games, but their success attracted the eyes of the Florida State program and lured head coach Mike Lovell away from Memphis. PSU had another solid season losing only two games and both on the road against then-undefeated teams.
PSU has felt spited as the Rose Bowl selected Wisconsin over PSU despite having three losses and two of them to Ohio State. So, the Nittany Lions will be playing with a purpose to finish the season in the Top-10 rankings and send a message to the Rose Bowl committee.
Here is a great betting system that has earned a solid 40-12 ‘Over’ record for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons. The instructions are to play ‘OVER’ after Week 7 of the regular season including bowl games and playoffs in a game between two teams that are not in the same conference and that are outgaining their opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards-per-play on the season.
Memphis quarterback White struggled in the AAC title game completing a season-low 45 percent of his passes. He has thrown five of his nine interceptions over the past four games and will be facing the toughest defense by far in the PSU Nittany Lions unit. Senior wide receiver Antonio Gibson, who caught the decisive TD pass in the last win, has been utilized more as a runner as the season progressed and rushed 11 times for 130 yards. Junior Damonte Coxie is White's favorite target with 68 catches for 1,144 yards, but will face the toughest corners by far and will have trouble getting separation from them.
The Lions defense is anchored by Parsons had a team-high 95 tackles and junior defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, who declared for the NFL draft, but will suit up for the Cotton Bowl and had 8.5 sacks this season.
Lions are a perfect 7-0 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last two seasons.
From the predictive toolbox the Lions are expected to score at least 28 points and gain more than six yards-per-play. The Lions are 46-10-3 ATS in games in which they scored 28 or mor epoints and gained at least six yards-per-play over the last 10 seasons.
|12-27-19||Washington State +3 v. Air Force||Top||21-31||Loss||-125||6 h 60 m||Show|
Washington State vs Air Force
The Falcons ended the regular season with their third-highest win total in program history and a program that was largely ignored by the media this season.
The Cougar’s Gorden may have extra motivation after being selected to the ALL-PAC-12 second-team despite being the 16th NCAA quarterback to throw for over 5,000 passing yards, the sith-highest in NCAA history with 5,228 passing yards, and the first since some guy named Patrick Mahomes did it in 2016 at Texas Tech.
Both teams cannot replicate the other’s offensive scheme, but I think the Cougars Air-Raid attack scheme is far more difficult for any team to face than a team that runs the triple-option. So, I think the Cougars have a huge edge in that department and they have the superior athleticism with their playmakers over the Falcons defensive unit.
The ‘UNDER’ opened at 67 and the “Pros and Joes” have been steadily pushing the total up to higher levels with 70 points now appearing at several sportsbooks. However, I lean as a contrarian and would make a bet on the ‘UNDER’ at a price tag of 71-points. And if it hits that level I would recommend a bet of no higher than 3-star using the money line on Washington State and the ‘UNDER’ 71-points or higher.
The Falcons are 9-25 against-the-spread facing terrible defensive teams allowing 450 or more yards-per-game in the current season. Cougars are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 in games played over the last three seasons; 11-2 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games over the last three seasons; 32-12 ATS 32-12 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game.
From the predictive side, the machine learning summaries calls for the Cougars to score 31 or more points. IN past games when they did score 31 or mor epoints they went 123-44-1 ATS for 74% winning bets and 38-19 ATS under head coach Mike Leach.
|12-26-19||Pittsburgh -11 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||34-30||Loss||-110||56 h 25 m||Show|
Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan
The Panther’s scoring defense ranked 31stallowing an average of 21.8 points per game and is led by All-ACC first team performers defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman (10.5 sacks, most by a Pitt DT since Aaron Donald had 11 in 2013) and safety Paris Ford (team-high 86 tackles, three interceptions, 14 passes defensed and three forced fumbles).
Simply, Pittsburgh is the better team on both sides of the ball and the machine learning projections are looking for Pitt to win this game by at least 17 points.
Pittsburgh will score at least 28 points in this game and are 123-62-4 ATS when they have done so; 9-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. EMU is 63-135-4 ATS when they have allowed 28 or more points; 3-10-1 ATS since the start of the 2017 season.
|12-24-19||BYU -1.5 v. Hawaii||Top||34-38||Loss||-110||12 h 48 m||Show|
BYU Cougars vs Hawaii Warriors
It has been more than 20 years since these two teams were bitter rivals in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) and this game marks the first time they have ever met in the postseason. The Rainbows had a great season where they reached the Mountain West Championship Game, but lost 31-10 to Boise State. BYU gave Boise State their only loss of this season.
The Cougars, who used three different starting quarterbacks this season due to injury, averaged 40 points-per-game during a five-game winning streak. However, that streak was snapped when they were limited to a season-low total in a 13-3 loss at San Diego State on Nov. 30. Zach Wilson, who committed three turnovers to offset a season-high 316 yards passing in the season finale, has three receivers with at least 40 receptions, with tight end Matt Bushman averaging 14.6 yards and scoring four times on 41 catches.
Linebacker Kavika Fonua has recorded a team-high 78 tackles for an opportunistic defense that tied for ninth in the nation with 15 interceptions and forced 22 turnovers to rank 18th overfall.
Looking at the numbers from our trusted database we notice that despite winning seven of their 12 games they covered the spread in just four of them. Teams playing in the post season that covered four or fewer games on the season and come into the game having not covered the spread in at least four of their previous games and coming off a straight-up (SU) loss have earned a solid 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets.
Rainbows are a terrible 2-10 ATS when facing good passing teams that have completed 58% or more of their pass attempts in games played over the last three seasons; 0-6 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 250 or more passing-yards-per-game in games played over the last three seasons; 1-8 ATS facing offenses that have averaged at least 6.0 yards-per-play in game splayed over the last two seasons.
Take the BYU Cougars.
|12-23-19||Packers v. Vikings -4.5||Top||23-10||Loss||-105||7 h 6 m||Show|
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
From the predictive Machine Learning:
Vikings are 26-4 ATS for 87% winning bets as a home favorite versus a divisional foe and scoring 28 or mor epoints and averaging at least 8.6 yards-per-pass-attempt.
|12-22-19||Lions v. Broncos -7||Top||17-27||Win||100||5 h 36 m||Show|
Detroit vs Denver
Here is a Terrific Betting System
|12-22-19||Ravens -10 v. Browns||Top||31-15||Win||100||2 h 60 m||Show|
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Browns are a money-burning 6-17 ATS in home games when facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season in each season since 1995.
From the predictive Machine Learning:
|12-22-19||Bengals v. Dolphins||Top||35-38||Loss||-127||2 h 46 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Miami
A Few Predictive Tip Ins
· Dolphins are 14-35-5 ATS in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards since 1997.
· Dolphins are 15-35-1 ATS when they have allowed a visitor to gain between 100 and 125 rushing yards since 1997.
|12-21-19||Washington -3 v. Boise State||Top||38-7||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
Boise State vs Washington
So, with Peterson leaving Washington and playing against the Broncos, which is the team he had previously coached qnd facing their head coach Bryan Harsin, whow worked for him for 10 seasons has its own storylines.
Junior quarterback Jacob Eason could opt for the NFL draft after the game and has passed for 2,922 yards, 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions during his first season as a college starter since 2016 at Georgia. Senior offensive tackle Trey Adams and junior tight end Hunter Bryant are skipping the game to protect against injury Junior running back Salvon Ahmed has 1,000 yards on the ground and has produced four 100-yard outings. Junior free safety Elijah Molden has a team-best 70 tackles and his three interceptions are tied with freshman cornerback Cameron Williams for the team lead while sophomore outside linebacker Joe Tryon has racked up a team-high eight sacks.
Peterson is 14-5 ATS in road games when facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards-per-game. as the coach of Washington; 20-8 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in all games he has coached in his career.
My Machine learning tools see a very high probability that Washington will score more than 28 points in this matchup. When they do they have gone 39--3 straight-up and 28-13-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|12-20-19||Buffalo v. Charlotte +6.5||Top||31-9||Loss||-105||6 h 54 m||Show|
The Bahamas Bowl
This is the first Bowl Game of the season and one that I expect to be entertaining and played well by these teams. This Bowl game started in 2014 and was called the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl, in which Western Kentucky defeated Central Michigan 49-48. The 49 points scored by Western Kentucky remains the Bowl record
The Charlotte 49ers play in the East Division of C-USA and earned a 7-5 record by winning their last five games of the regular season. The 49ers went an even 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and the ‘OVER’ won the money in eight of their 12 games. Their first-year head coach Will Healy absorbed the growing pains at the start of the season has them playing at their best right now and is a reason I like them as a Best Bet.
The 49ers had two huge wins during their five-game win streak. In Week 10 they shocked Middle Tennessee State 34-20 and were lined as 2.5-point home underdogs. In Week 13 they played their best game of the season in a 24-13 win over Marshall and were lined as 6.5-point home underdogs. As a home underdog they went a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS so they relish the role they find themselves in for this Bowl game.
In a twist of fate, I suppose we have two teams that at the Pro levels have the same team name with only the Buffalo Bulls missing the ‘I’ in Bills. The Bulls play as a member of the East Division in the MAC Conference and earned a 7-5 record this season. They rewarded their bettors with a 7-5 ATS record and the ‘OVER’ bet also went 8-4 on the season.
The Bulls had two huge wins this season in which they covered the spread by 28 points. In Week 4 they pounded Temple 38-22 and were 12-point home underdogs. In Week 10 they dominated Eastern Michigan 43-14 and were lined as a 1-point road favorite.Here is a Terrific Betting System to Track for Seasons to Come
This NCAA football betting system has earned a 38-10 ATS record good for 79.2% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system instructs us to bet on underdogs of 3 to 10 points after having won four or more of their last six games SU and have a win percentage between 51% and 60% on the season.
This system will track teams that are on winning runs later in the season. A team cannot lose four of their first six games and have a win percentage between 51 and 60% on the season. The system aligns with the positive momentum I like to see a team have that I bet on in the early bowl games.A Few Extra Points
· Bulls head coach Leipold is 0-6 ATS in road games after outrushing the previous opponent by 125 or more yards.
· 49ers are a solid 10-2 ATS after playing three consecutive conference games spanning the last three seasons of play.
|12-16-19||Colts +10 v. Saints||Top||7-34||Loss||-128||4 h 9 m||Show|
Colts vs Saints
This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 24-6 against the spread (ATS) record good for 80% winning bets over the last 35 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs or pick (The Colts in this matchup) off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.
The Colts are 17-3 ATS when coming off a win and facing an opponent that averages 6.375 or more rushing first downs-per-game and scoring an average of 27 or fewer points-per-game. When the Colts have been a dog they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in this role.
The 7-Star Best Bet is on the Colts
|12-15-19||Bills +1 v. Steelers||Top||17-10||Win||100||2 h 19 m||Show|
7-Star Buffalo Bills
NFL: Buffalo vs Pittsburgh
8:20 PM EST, December 15, 2019
Let us start with a situational betting system that has earned a 30-8 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 35 seasons. Bet on road teams after they have gone under the total by 21 or more points in total over their last three games and are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by a combined 49 points in their last five games.
This betting system is 6-0 ATS over the last three seasons.
Intended air yards is a great measure of offensive performance. It measures all of the passing yards, the distance the ball travel from the line of scrimmage – not the QB hand – and for both incompleted and completed passes.
The Buffalo offense is one of the most balanced offensive attacks. They rank 14th with 3,800 yards of intended air passing yards. They have thrown a total of 422 passes and this translate into a quite impressive 9.0 yards of intended air yards per pass attempt that ranks fourth-best in the NFL. This also reflects the Bills abilities to stretch a defense using vertical crossing routes and with success.
The Steelers strength has been their defense this season where they rank third allowing 1,161 yards after the catch has been made. They average an allowed 8.3 yards of depth per pass attempt. This simply means that the average yards the ball flies through the air beyond the line of scrimmage has been 8.3 yards per-pass-attempt. So, I believe with the help of my 3,500 algorithms and machine learning tools that Buffalo will be able to dominate this game.
So, bet a 7-Star amount on the Buffalo Bills.
|12-15-19||Vikings v. Chargers +1.5||Top||39-10||Loss||-110||7 h 14 m||Show|
Minnesota vs LA Chargers
This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 18-4 against the spread (ATS) record good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on teams that have forced one or zero turnovers in four consecutive games and are facing a team that had zero turnovers in their last game and in a game that has a line between +3.5 and -3.5 points.
The straight-up record of this system is 19-5.
The Vikings are just 5-18 ATS in road games off a home ATS loss or push where the team won as a favorite.
From the machine learning projections:
|12-15-19||Bears +4.5 v. Packers||Top||13-21||Loss||-110||3 h 30 m||Show|
10-Star Bet on the Chicago Bears
NFL: Chicago vs Green Bay
1:00 PM EST, December 15, 2019
Due to time allotments, these reports are shorter than normal.
The 200th meeting between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers on Sunday at Lambeau Field will feature plenty of playoff implications. The Bears have won three straight and four of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot, while the Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. But, Obviously I strongly believe that the Bears are going to pull off the upset win.
The Packers have been out-gained by many of their opponents and they find ways to win games. They just are not as good as that record indicates and the Bears have the talent that matches up well against he Packers. Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak.
Here is a betting system that has earned a solid 45-17 ATS record good for 73% ATS winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to BET ON road teams (CHICAGO in this matchup) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and with the game being played in the month of December.
Here is a second betting system that has earned a 33-11 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY in this matchup) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season.
The machine learning summary projection calls for the Packers to not score more than 20 points. The Packers are 46-139-7 ATS for 25% wins when they have scored 20 or fewer points; 1-16-1 in home games since 2010.
|12-12-19||Jets +17 v. Ravens||Top||21-42||Loss||-104||3 h 12 m||Show|
7-Star New York Jets
NFL: Jets vs Ravens
8:15 PM EST, December 12, 2019This situational query has earned a solid 42-14 ATS mark good for 75% winning picks over the last 25 seasons. The requirements are to Bet against home favorites of 14.5 or more points and are solid rushing teams gaining an average of at least 130 or more rushing ayrds per game on the season.
Some quick Hitters:
|12-09-19||Giants +10.5 v. Eagles||Top||17-23||Win||100||6 h 15 m||Show|
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
8:15 PM EST, December 9, 2019
7-Star Titan on the Giants
The problems have been increasing for the Eagle offense since Week 6 and they are not going away just because they are playing the hapless Giants and some old guy named Eli Manning. I know that Eli is just 10-20 in his career against the Eagles, but that is a history lesson all to itself and has nothing to do with tonight’s game.
A stat I have studied fo years is intended air yards, which is exactly what it sounds like. The total yards of all passes thrown that have been competed or not completed. The Eagles rank 13th most in the NFL with 3,863 yards. By comparison, The Bucs lead the NFL with 5,170 intended air yards on the season and 49ers – go figure – rank last with only 2,609 IAY.
What matters more is the average depth of these intended air yards. The Eagles are above average hear again averaging 8 IAY-per-attempt. The problem is that Wentz has completed 1,738 IAY – the yards the ball traveled past the line of scrimmage before being caught and does not include yards-AFTER-THE-CATCH. This illustrates how monumental the loss of WR Jackson has been to the offense as they have no one that can stretch the defense in vertical routes. So, you can throw downfield all day long, but if there is no a playmaker that can get seperation from the defender and make the catch, the rest of the offensive scheme will suffer.
The receivers and Wentz share equally in their demise. WR are rounded routes instead of squaring them off with sharp change of direction moves. Wentz is making horrible reads and has been largely inaccurate with his passes even when the receiver is open.This situational query has earned a solid 48-19 ATS mark good for 71% winning picks since 2015. The requirements are to play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that has a terrible scoring defense allowing an average of 27 points-per-game on the season. The following precedents match the projections from the machine learning results.
· The Giants are 8-1 ATS in road games when they have allowed 22 to 28 points in games played over the last three seasons.
· The Giants are 8-1 ATS in road games in which both teams score 20 or more points.
· The Giants are 56-14 ATS for 80% when they have forced a host into three or more turnovers.
|12-08-19||Chiefs v. Patriots -3||Top||23-16||Loss||-104||4 h 17 m||Show|
7-Star NFL Late Afternoon TItan
This situational betting system has earned a 375-264 record good for 59% winning bets over the last 30 seasons. The requirements are to bet against road teams after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a team winning 60to 75% or more of their games on the season.
KC is a money-burning 0-6 ATS when facing teams who commit one or less turnovers-per-game on the season over the last two seasons.
Patriots are 15-4 ATS facing struggling defensive teams allowing 350 or more yards-per-game over the last three seasons.
Patriots are 9-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last three seasons.
|12-08-19||Dolphins v. Jets -4.5||Top||21-22||Loss||-110||2 h 33 m||Show|
Miami Dolphins vs NY Jets
1:00 PM EST, December 8, 2019
7-Star Titan on the Jets
This situational query has earned a solid 33-11 ATS mark good for 75% winning picks since 2000. The requirements are to play on favorites that are revenging a loss to the current opponent and is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. Monster System and one that I highly recommend you continue to track for more qualified bets.The following precedents match the projections from the machine learning results.
· The Dolphins are just 23-44 ATS when playing against a struggling team sporting a win percentage between 25% to 40%.
· The Dolphins are 10-27 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards-per-game in their last three games.
· The Dolphins are 41-112 ATS when they rush for less than 75 yards.
|12-08-19||Colts v. Bucs -3||Top||35-38||Push||0||1 h 14 m||Show|
7-Star On the Tampa Bay Bucs
NFL: Bucs vs Colts
1:00 PM EST, December 8, 2019This situational query has earned a solid 33-11 ATS mark good for 75% winning picks since 2000. The requirements are to play on favorites that are revenging a loss to the current opponent and is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. Monster System and one that I highly recommend you continue to track for more qualified bets.
Some quick Hitters:
|12-08-19||Ravens v. Bills +6.5||Top||24-17||Loss||-110||1 h 4 m||Show|
7-Star Best Bet on the Buffalo Bills
This is a trap game for ther Ravens and a classic ‘wise-guy’ bet against situation.
Play against road teams that are on an eight-game win streak in the month of December. This simple query has earned an incredible 23-4 ATS record for 85% winning bets since 1980 and is 8-0 ATS over the last five seasons.
|12-07-19||Virginia v. Clemson -28.5||Top||17-62||Win||100||3 h 56 m||Show|
7:30 PM EST, December 8, 2019
7-Star Titan on the Clemson Tigers
THIS SITUATIONAL QUERY HAS EARNED A SOLID 35-12-3 ATS MARK GOOD FOR 75% WINNING PICKS SINCE 2000. THE REQUIREMENTS ARE TO PLAY ON FAVORITES OF 21.5 TO 31 POINTS THAT ARE AVERAGING 200 OR MORE RUSHING YARDS-PER-GAME ON THE SEASON AND HAVE ALLOWED 125 OR FEWER RUSHING YARDS IN THREE CONSECUTIVE GAMES.
THE FOLLOWING PRECEDENTS MATCH THE PROJECTIONS FROM THE MACHINE LEARNING RESULTS.
•The Tigers are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
•The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
•The Tigers are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
|12-07-19||Georgia +7.5 v. LSU||Top||10-37||Loss||-110||5 h 33 m||Show|
10-Star On Georgia
NCAAM: Georgia vs LSU
4:00 PM EST, December 7, 2019
Some quick Hitters:
From the predictive side we learn that Georgia is 20-6 ATS over the last three seasons and 126-56 ATS over the last 25 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. LSU is just 18-60 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the last 25 seasons.
Georgia is 47-25 ATS when gaining at least 135 RY and scoring 35 or more points and 145-7 ATS over the last three seasons.
The betting system has earned 77% winning bets on a 36-11 ATS record and instructs us to play on Neutral field underdogs outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards-per-game on the season.
|12-07-19||Baylor v. Oklahoma -8.5||Top||23-30||Loss||-110||1 h 3 m||Show|
12:00 PM EST, December 7, 2019
7-Star Titan on the Oklahoma Sooners
This situational query has earned a solid 45-15 ATS mark good for 75% winning picks since 2000. The requirements are to play on any team that is playing a game in December after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in total over their last five games. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last three seasons.
The following precedents match the projections from the machine learning results.
· The Sooners are 80-41 ATS when gaining at least nine yards-per-pass attempt.
o 58-24 ATS when they have gained a minimum of 10 yards-per-pas attempt.
o Bears are a 12-39 ATS when allo1ing 10 or more passing yards-per-attempt.
· The Sooners are 149-87 ATS when scoring 28 or more points.
o Bears are just 61-123 ATS when allowing 28 or more points.
|12-06-19||Oregon v. Utah -6.5||Top||37-15||Loss||-114||8 h 45 m||Show|
Oregon vs Utah
LEVI'S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CA8:00 PM EST, December 6, 2019
10-Star Titan on the Utah UItes
Let us get right to the meat and potatoes portion of this game.
· Utes are 7-0 ATS when facing below average passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse this season.
· Utes are 30-15 ATS in road games facing excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better on the season.
· Utes are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games this season.
· Whittingham is 22-3 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in three straight games as the coach of UTAH.
|12-02-19||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||Top||30-37||Loss||-105||5 h 24 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Seattle
This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 48-27 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons and 28-14 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons. The requirements are to play on road teams in the month of December that have lost three or four of their last games to the spread.
If we slice the dataset to include having lost three games exact of the last four games to the spread then the record is 24-10 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons.
If the ‘dps’ for the team was positive then the query goes to 15-8 ATS and the UNDER has earned a 17-5-1 record good for 77% winning bets. DPS parameter is how the team did scoring as compared to the the implied Vegas lines. For example, in this game Minnesota is a 3-poit underdog with a posted total of 50 points. So, this implies that the final score will be Seattle 26.5 and Minnesota 23.5. If Minnesota scores 31 points, the dps is 7.5 points. If they would score 20 points, then the dps is -3.5 points.
|12-01-19||Patriots -3 v. Texans||Top||22-28||Loss||-117||7 h 59 m||Show|
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
This situational query has earned an outstanding 62-26 ATS record for 70 % winning bets over the last five seasons. Play on road teams that are above average passing teams averaging 230 or more passing yards-per-game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards-per-attempt in last game.
A few more Extra Points:
Texans are an imperfect 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Belichick is Belichick is 65-28 ATS (+34.2 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games.
These precedents all match the Machine learning projections.
|12-01-19||Packers v. Giants +7||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||3 h 5 m||Show|
7-Star On the NY Giants
NFL: Green Bay vs NY Giants
1:00 PM EST, December 1, 2019
The Packers have not been playing well over the last several weeks and have been outgained by the last three opponents they have played. Not a good sign for Aaron Rogers, who is also coming off the worst game of his career, in which he gained just 104 passing yards versus the 49ers stout defense.
This situational query has earned a solid 67-30 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play against favorites after they were trailing by 14 or more points at half-time in their previous game.
From the machine learning summary projections, we learn that the Giants are a perfect 17-0 SU and 14-0 ATS as a dog when they have scored 24 to 28 points, gained more than 125 rushing yards and the opponent did not exceed 100 rushing yards.
|12-01-19||Eagles v. Dolphins +11.5||Top||31-37||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Miami
Here is another situational betting system that has earned a 51-22 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be against favorites that are coming off a game where they had a -3 turnover margin.
If we combine the two, the Dolphins find themselves in a very nice 13-4 ATS spot hitting 77% winning bets.
|12-01-19||49ers +6 v. Ravens||Top||17-20||Win||100||2 h 15 m||Show|
San Francisco vs Baltimore
This is the battle of the two best teams in the league and is a game the 49ers can win with their defense. They may be the only team that has a defense strong enough to contain the LJ greatest show on turf.
It is hard to mentally bet against the Ravens as they are doing things that no team in the last 20 seasons has achieved. They have won their last three games by 17 points versus the spread and the last team to do that was the 2001 Rams, who were the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’. Still, the value here is on the 49ers.
This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 27-7 ATS record good for 79.4% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are excellent offensive teams scoring 27 or more points-per-game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games.
|11-30-19||Alabama v. Auburn +4||Top||45-48||Win||100||5 h 24 m||Show|
Alabama vs Auburn
This situational query has earned an outstanding 35-8-5 ATS record for 80 % winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Play on home teams from week 7 on that are averaging 190 to 230rushing yards per game and coming off a game where they allowed fewer than 100 RY and are facing an average rushing opponent that gains an average of 140 to 190 per game on the season.
A few more Extra Points:
These precedents all match the Machine learning projections.
|11-30-19||Wisconsin -1 v. Minnesota||Top||38-17||Win||100||27 h 40 m||Show|
Wisconsin vs Minnesota
7-Star bet on the Wisconsin Badgers
This is the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, but there is heck of a lot more on the line than just the award. The winner will move on to play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a touchdown in the win over the Boilermakers to gain 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his illustrious career. Further, he has gained 200 or more yards in three consecutive games.
Safety Collin Wilder will miss the first half against Minnesota after he was ejected for targeting against the Boilermakers. So, I am not concerned one bit about this fact and the Wisconsin defense will play well despite his absence.
These precedents match the projections form the summary Machine learning tools.
Badgers are 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games.
Badgers under head coach Chryst is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 as the coach of Wisconsin.
The machine learning tools show overwhelming results that the Badgers will score at least 28 points. They are 6-1 ATS this season, 18-7 ATS the last three seasons, and 127-51 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points.
|11-30-19||Ohio State -8 v. Michigan||Top||56-27||Win||100||2 h 0 m||Show|
Ohio State vs Michigan
This situational query has earned an outstanding 35-8-5 ATS record for 80 % winning bets over the last 20 seasons. Play on home teams from week 7 on that are averaging 190 to 230rushing yards per game and coming off a game where they allowed fewer than 100 RY and are facing an average rushing opponent that gains an average of 140 to 190 per game on the season.
The talent gap between Ohio State and Michigan is reflected in the Buckeyes winning 16 of the last 18 against the Wolverines. Ohio State enters this year's game with a 17-game overall winning streak and a seven-game win streak against Michigan. By all indications, Jim Harbaugh will have a tough time beating Ohio State for the first time in his five seasons as Wolverines coach. Ohio State has crushed its opponents this year and handled its biggest challenge to date last week in a 28-17 victory over No. 12 Penn State.
From the machine learning projections:
|11-30-19||Holy Cross v. Monmouth -6||Top||27-44||Win||100||1 h 29 m||Show|
Holy Cross vs Monmouth
This situational betting system has earned a solid 44-22 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. Play against road underdogs of 5 to 11.5 points that are coming off a double digit conference win and facing an opponent that has won their last three consecutive conference games. The machine learning summary projections match the following precedents.
The Bonus plays are to bet ON WOFFORD and to Bet on Albany
|11-29-19||Washington State v. Washington -6.5||Top||13-31||Win||100||3 h 58 m||Show|
Washington State vs Washington
This is the battle for the Apple Cup. Both teams had higher aspirations than this winning this state-rivalry game as both teams have underachieved preseason expectations of a PAC-12 crown. Yet, this will make the recruiting and state bragging rights even more powerful for the winner of this game.
This situational betting system has earned a solid 49-16 record betting the UNDER since 2015. The requirements are to bet UNDER with a home team and a total of at least 5.5 goals that are revenging a loss to the opponent and has a winning record on the season and with the game taking place in the first half of the season.
WSU is just 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.
|11-28-19||Bears v. Lions +6||Top||24-20||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
Chicago vs Detroit
7-Star on the Detroit Lions
These precedents match the projections form the summary Machine learning tools.
Detroit is a solid 31-15 ATS when they have allowed 5. 50 5.5 yards-per-play in a game.
Detroit is 15-5 ATS when getting 7 or more first downs than the opponent and gaining a minimum of 125 rushing yards.
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams +4||Top||45-6||Loss||-110||13 h 22 m||Show|
10-Star Los Angeles Rams
7-Star Teaser Rams and the ‘OVER’
NFL: Baltimore vs LA Rams
8:15 PM EST, November 25, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 25-7 ATS record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on underdogs or pick (in this case the Rams) after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and facing a non-conference opponent. The total has earned a steady 22-12-1 record good for 65% winning bets.
For the 6-point teaser, the Rams will become a 9.5-point underdog and the total will be lowered to 41 from the current 47-point level. For those new to teaser and parlay betting, a teaser has two bets and both must win for the bet to cash. So, we need the Rams to NOT lose by more than nine points and for both teams to combine for 42 or more points.
The table below shows the payouts for 2 through 10-team teaser bets using the +6,. +6.5, and +7-point teaser bets. Many sports books offer 10-point teaser lines. Remember, you are receiving points, which increases your chances of winning. In turn, you will take on risk elsewhere in getting a reduced payout.
From the machine learning summary projections we learn that the Ravens are just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after a win by 21 or more points. Look for Goff to get going tonight – finally – as the Rams are projected to average 7 or more yards-per-pass attempt. The Rams are 26-12-3 for 68% since 2010 when they have gained 7.5 YPPA.
|11-24-19||Packers v. 49ers -3||Top||8-37||Win||100||13 h 38 m||Show|
10-Star San Francisco 49ers
NFL: Green Bay vs San Francisco
8:20 PM EST, November 24, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 41-15 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on favorites that have won three of their last four games and are facing an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games. Simple and straight-forward betting system.
From the machine learning summary projections we learn that Green Bay is just 5-23 ATS when they have been outgained by 150 or more total yards. 49ers are 52-11 ATS when they have outgained an opponent by 150 or more total yards.
|11-24-19||Steelers -6 v. Bengals||Top||16-10||Push||0||2 h 30 m||Show|
7-Star Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cincinnati Bengals
|11-24-19||Giants v. Bears -6||Top||14-19||Loss||-105||2 h 21 m||Show|
Chicago Bears vs the NY Giants
The Chicago Bears were the trendy pic to win the NFC prior to the start of this season. I was included in that selection and admit that I was wrong on that futures pick, but I do not think I was wrong on how good this team is on paper. I completely agree that no one has made money on a bet based on a team’s paper worth. I do believe they are beginning to find their footings and will finish the second half of the season much better than they did the first half of the season.
Despite the Bears 4-6 record they do rank 14th in my power rankings while the G-Men rank 29th. Based on these rankings the Bears would be favored by 10 points and as a result provides betting value on the Bears given the current NFL odds showing the Bears to be a 6-point home favorite.
The Bears defense has played well this season and rank 4th in scoring defense allowing only 17.4 points-per-game. The Giants offense ranks 22nd scoring 20.3 points-per-game on the season. The Giants are not running the ball well enough and they will struggle even more against a Bears run defense that ranks 4th allowing just 3.6 yards-per-attempt.
The Bears average defense has been fantastic and not given the media credit they deserve. The unit does not have to bring the blitz to get quarterback pressure. This is the dominant reason they rank 7th allowing 6.3 yards-per-pass-attempt. This will a nightmare for the Giants sputtering offense that ranks 26th averaging just 5.9 passing yards-per-attempt.
The Giants rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points-per-game. Enough said. Trubiski is worth to be considered your starting quarterback in daily fantasy contests this week.
The absence of a strong Giant running attack, the play action passes have not worked for the Giants. Daniel Jones ranks 24th gaining 431 passing yards on play action pass routes. To illustrate how poor this really is consider the NFL-leader Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, who has passed for 938 yards using playing action and second-best Dak Prescott, who has passed for 886 yards out of play action.
This situational betting system has earned a solid 65-39-3 ATS record for 63% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet on losing record favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games after Week 4.
The G-Men are a horrifying 0-7 ATS after playing three consecutive games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game.
|11-23-19||Oregon v. Arizona State +13.5||Top||28-31||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
Arizona State vs Oregon
This situational betting system has earned a 26-10 record using the money line for 72% SU winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play against a road team using the money line in a matchup of two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards-per-pass and are coming off a game where they allowed 4.5 or fewer passing yards-per-attempt.
If the team is coming off a game where they allowed the opponent 5.3 or fewer yards-per-pass play provides more betting opportunities and a solid 77-43 record for 66% winning bets and has made $5,3560 per $100 bet over the last five seasons.
|11-23-19||Texas A&M v. Georgia -12.5||Top||13-19||Loss||-110||8 h 7 m||Show|
NCAA: Georgia vs Texas A&M
3:30 PM EST, November 23, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 54-18 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and is an outstanding 13-1 ATS this season. The requirements are to play on a home team after Week 7 that is a very good rushing team averaging 190 to 240 RYPG and is coming off a game where their defense allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards and is now facing an opponent that averages 140 to 190 RYPG on the season.
Georgia has already won the SEC East, but the Bulldogs must nevertheless avoid a stumble here before they play for the conference title against LSU. The Aggies, who still must take on LSU next week to close out their regular season schedule.
The Bulldogs dominated last week for three quarters but needed a final stop late in the game before winning at Auburn. QB Jake Fromm was able to make enough plays against the Tigers’ stingy defense. He figures to have an easier time this week, though top WR Lawrence Cager aggravated a shoulder injury and might be limited in today’s game. Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond and RB Isaiah Spiller might have their hands full against the Georgia defense, which finally allowed its first rushing TD of the season late last week but still knows how to control gaps.
Georgia will dominate on both sides of this game and the machine learning projections call for a bug win here. Georgia is projected to score at least 28 points and are 125-56 ATS when doing so and 19-6 ATS over the last three seasons. They are 30-9 ATS when they have scored 35 to 42 points. A&M is 5-28 ATS when allowing 35 to 42 points in a game.
|11-23-19||Penn State +19.5 v. Ohio State||Top||17-28||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
7-Star Penn State over Ohio State
The largest margin of victory ahs been 49 points with each team doing it once. The Lions won by 49 points on October 26, 2013 and the Buckeyes won by 49 points on October 29, 1994. In these games each team scored the most points in this matchup with 63 points.
The longest win streak by the Buckeyes has been four games and three games for the Lions.What Is at Stake?
The winner of this game will advance to the College Football Playoffs. I know I am one of the few and to be honest I feel lonely out here making such a bold statement that the Lions will win this game. To me, it is not that bold a statement.
I had thought that a line of 11 to 12 points is what the opening line would be. I was shocked to see it at 18 points and immediately realized that this was only reflecting public sentiment. The Buckeyes are 10-0 and have earned an 8-2 record against the spread (ATS). They failed to cover against the two weakest opponents they faced in Florida Atlantic in Week 1 and Big Ten foe Rutgers in Week 13. So, it is the normal betting behavior to jump on the team that is winning games and covering spreads.How Can Penn State Win?
The Lions offense is quite good and is led by sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford, who leads the Big Ten gaining 2.824 total yards. He is second in passing yards with 2,450 yards and trails Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan by only 18 passing yards for the top spot.The Lions Defense Will Win This Game
The Lions run defense is the best in the Big Ten and on eof the best – if not the best – in the nation allowing only 2.2 yards-per-attempt. By stopping the Buckeyes on first down and forcing them into second-and-long situations will allow the Lions pass rush to get put immense pressure on the offensive line. Shaka Toney has 6.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles-for-loss and Yeter Gross-Matos has 6.0 sacks and is the team-leader with 10 tackles-for-loss.What Does the Database Have to Share?
The Lions are 6-0 ATS when facing the absolute best rushing teams in the nation that Have averaged 230 or more yards-per-game in games played over the last three seasons.
The Lions are 7-0 ATS off a push or ATS loss when the team won the game as a favorite in game splayed over the last three seasons.
Head Coach Franklin is 13-2 ATS off a push or ATS loss when the team won as a favorite including all games he has coached (Vanderbilt and Penn State).
Play an additional 2-Star amount on the money line! Just in case.
|11-23-19||Illinois v. Iowa -14.5||Top||10-19||Loss||-110||21 h 48 m||Show|
Illinois vs Iowa (Big Ten Football)
This situational betting system has earned a solid 32-12 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in a game between to average teams posting yards-per-play differentials between -0.6 and 0.6 YPP and are coming a game in which they were outgained by 125 or more yards.
The machine learning summary projections call for Iowa to score at least 30 points and gain a minimum of 450 total yards. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections they have earned a remarkable 23-5 ATS for 82% winning bets and hav e covered the spread by an average of 12 points.
When Illinois has been the team that allowed these measures they have ended up a money-burning 10-29-1 ATS for just 25% winning bets.
|11-21-19||Colts v. Texans -3.5||Top||17-20||Loss||-105||3 h 50 m||Show|
7-Star Houston Texans
NCAAF: Texans vs Colts
8:15 PM EST, November 21, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 41-13 ATS record for 76% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on home favorites that are revenging a close loss by seven or fewer points and are coming off a road loss.
The Texans were hammered at Baltimore this past Sunday and with a 6-4 record there will be a sense of urgency to defend their home turf tonight. The Texans run the ball well and the Colts do not do well against good running teams. Colts are just 6-18 ATS in road games facing a host that is averaging at least 130 rushing yards-per-game after Week 8.
|11-19-19||Ohio -20 v. Bowling Green||Top||66-24||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
Ohio University vs Bowling Green
This situational betting system has earned a 30-5 ATS record good for 86% winning NFL bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight-up losses and has a win percentage between 40 and 49% on the season.
Here is a second betting system that has earned a 41-19 ATS record good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play against home underdogs of 14.5 or more points after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games in a game occurring in Weeks 10 to 13.
Ohio University is expected to easily score 28 or more points. They are 93-36 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and 43-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
|11-18-19||Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5||Top||24-17||Loss||-110||8 h 56 m||Show|
10-Star on the San Diego Chargers
NFL: San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
8:15 PM EST, November 18, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 27-17-3 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a team that is facing a quick starting opponent that is score more than 14 PPG in the first half and is coming off a loss of 7 or fewer points. Simple, straight-forward and easy to understand.
The location is Estadio Azteca – Mexico City and this is actually good for the Chargers, who have had home games in which 80% of the fans in attendance were fans of the opposition. So, even if it split 50-50 the Chargers are accustomed to this type of ‘strange’ environment.
Here are a few team specific situations supporting the Chargers and working against the Chiefs.
Chargers Are 38-19 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record on the season and the game taking place in the second half of the season.
Chargers are 32-12 ATS in road games (neutral sites) when facing a solid passing team that is completing at least 61% of their pass attempts on the season with the game taking place in the second half of the season.
Chargers are 26-11 ATS in road games facing good offensive teams averaging 350 or more total yards per game in games played in the second half of the season.
Chargers head Coach Lynn is a perfect 8-0 ATs in road games and is coming off game where the team failed to cover the spread.
|11-17-19||Bears v. Rams -6||Top||7-17||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
LA Rams vs Chicago Bears
10-Star Bet on the LA Rams
8:20 PM ESTWhat Does the Machine Have for Us?
This situational query has earned an outstanding 24-4 ATS record for 84% winning bets over the last 5 seasons. The requirements are bet Home favorites (LA RAMS) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45 and 55% in the second half of the season.
The NFL odds on this game is providing some solid insight from the betting flows data. The line opened with the Rams as a 7-point home favorite and now has moved to 6.5-points at many of the sportsbooks. I expect this line to move to 6-points over the next 48 hours given the higher than usual betting activity on the underdog Bears by the public bettors.
Currently, 63% of the number of betting tickets placed and 63% of the total money taken are on the Bills. The total money bet on the game is broken down to $203,740 on the Bears and $120,900 is on the Rams, which translates to average bet size of $61.00 on the Bears and $62.00 on the Rams. So, ther betting activity is twice as many tickets being bet on the Bears than the Rams and with each bet size being equal for interest on either team.
So, the betting consensus on the game is nearing the ‘red Alert’ level of 70% for bets on the Bears. I do expect the 70% level to be eclipsed and when it does it is a signal to bet on the Rams. Betting against the public consensus when it reaches an irrational exuberance stage and betting with the Book side is never a poor decision.Why Has the Sentiment Soured So Much for the Rams?
There are many reasons that the Rams are getting discounted in the market. The last time Rans played the Bears, it was at Soldier Field, and the result was one of the worst games of Goff’s young career. Many observers point to this game as the one where the defensive coordinators had caught up to the offensive genius of Sean McVay. I like to think of it has a pullback of an outstanding stock that had been in a bull trend for a prolonged period. Call it profit taking on the Rams, but now is the time to be a buyer of the Rams.
Rams wide receiver Brandon Cooks remains sidelined as well and with him out of this game allows the Bears defense to double team Cooper Kupp.How Will the Rams Adjust to the Bears 6-1 Defense?
In the last meeting between the teams, the Bears used a six-man defensive front with a single rover linebacker that mirrored Rams running back Todd Gurley. This defensive scheme plugged the gaps that the Rams offense would look to open on running plays that created canyons for Gurley to run through.
The Rams will use quick short passes to the slot, which will be open field in the 6-1 defensive scheme. They will also use far more 5-wide receiver sets that will have Robert Woods in man coverage. Mike Thomas will see a lot more playing time given that Brooks is out. He has elite quickness and can gai exceptional separation from a defender in man situations. He has lined up on the left-side of the formation in 74%^ of his plays in the NFL and many times is put in motion ending up in the slot where a linebacker or safety is forced to defend him. That will be a great mismatch for the Rams to exploit.
|11-17-19||Bills -6.5 v. Dolphins||Top||37-20||Win||100||3 h 44 m||Show|
7-Star on Buffalo Bills
NFL: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST, November 17, 2019
This situational query has earned a solid 59-28 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 18-10-1 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on a road favorite in the month of November that is off a road loss.
The Buffalo Bills are not a good offensive team, but their defense is good and has kept them in games long enough to allow the offense to score a few points necessary to get the win. My proprietary ranks that adjust for opponents and their schedules shows that Buffalo ranks 24th in total offense, and 13th in total defense. The Fish rank 31st in both total offense and defense.
The veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick has brought a sense of calm to the fish having won their last two games, but the fish are no where close to being out of the woods.
Miami is just 40-111 ATS when they have rushed for fewer than 75 yards.
Buffalo is 35-7 ATS when they have outgained an opponent by 150 or more total yards.
|11-17-19||Jaguars +2.5 v. Colts||Top||13-33||Loss||-100||2 h 25 m||Show|
7-Star on Jacksonville as they take on Indianapolis
Let us start with a situational betting system that has earned a 29-8 ATS record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on an underdog including pick-em that is coming off a 21 or greater point loss and is now facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their last game. This system is 9-3 ATS over the last three seasons.
Here is a second system that is working against the Colts and has earned a 67-28 SATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play against any team that is lied between a 3-point underdog and a 3-point favorite in a conference matchup after going over the total by a combined mount of 35 or more points in their last five games.
Colts are 9-21 ATS in home games coming off a loss of six or fewer points.
I expect Jacksonville to score between 22 and 28 points. The Jaguars are 66-24 ATS for 73% winning bets when they have scored between 22 and 28 points and 18-7-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons.
|11-17-19||Falcons +4 v. Panthers||Top||29-3||Win||100||2 h 32 m||Show|
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
This situational betting system has earned a 70-30 record good for 70% winning NFL bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are play on any team (ATLANTA) after five consecutive games where they forced no more than one turnover against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
Atlanta is projected to gain 6.5 or more yards-per-play and score between 25 and 31 points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these projections the Falcons have earned a solid 76-36 ATS record for 68% winning bets. Panthers are just 27-53-1 when allowing these performance measures.
|11-16-19||UCLA v. Utah -21||Top||3-49||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
UCLA vs Utah
From the machine learning projections, Utah will score at least 42 points. UCLA is 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-24 ATS over the last 25 seasons when they have allowed 42 or more points. Utes are 64-8 ATS over the last 25 seasons and 4-0 ATS the last three seasons when scoring 42 or more points.
This situational query has earned an outstanding 52-17-2 for 75% winning picks. The requirements are to play on a team that is a solid rushing team gaining between 190 and 230 RYPG and are coming off a game where they allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards, and are now facing an opponent that is averaging between 140 to 190 RYPG on the season.
|11-16-19||Navy +7.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||20-52||Loss||-110||4 h 8 m||Show|
7-Star on Navy as they take on host Notre Dame
The Midshipmen have won five consecutive games and covered the spread in four out of the five. Their last loss was at Memphis losing 35-22 and failed to cover the spread as 11-point road underdogs.
Notre Dame is 7-2 with the two losses against ranked teams in Georgia and Michigan, but their wins have been against mostly weak football programs. So, I do not believe the Irish are as good as their 7-2 record indicates. They have a higher strength-of-schedule than Navy, but that is mostly because they played and lost to Georgia and Michigan.
Navy runs the ball and then they run it more. The Irish allowed Michigan to gash them for 303 rushing yards on 57 attempts in 45-14 loss back on October 26. The Midshipmen are the best running team in the nation averaging 358.3 rushing yards-per-game on the season. So, I believe that Navy will run wild on a suspect Notre Dame run defense.What Does the Database Have to Share?
This situational query or betting system as some call them has earned a 40-13 against the spread (ATS) record good for 75% winning NCAAF picks over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in Weeks 10 through 13 that have covered three out of their last four games.
2-11 ATS in home games when facing offenses designed for the run (triple option) and average 125 or fewer passing yards-per-game.
|11-16-19||Alabama v. Mississippi State +19.5||Top||38-7||Loss||-105||4 h 56 m||Show|
7-Star Mississippi State
NCAAF: Alabama vs Miss State
12:00 PM EST, November 16, 2019
This is an upset alert special situation in this matchup. Alabama knows they are going to need a lot of help to get to their sixth CFP. That help could come later today when Auburn takes on Georgia in a huge SEC game with major CFP implications. I believe this is a game where Alabama will be pushed to the limits just to get out of Starkville with a win.
This situational query has earned a solid 81-37 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 23-10-3 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to play on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) after Week 7 that is a good rushing team averaging between 190 and 230 rushing yards-per-game and after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game and are facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 rushing yards-per-game.
This betting system is 6-0 ATS this season and 16-4 ATS the past three seasons.
|11-14-19||Steelers +3 v. Browns||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||8 h 55 m||Show|
7-Star Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL: Steelers vs Browns
8:15 PM EST, November 14, 2019
Here is a situational betting system that has earned a 31-5 for 86% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. Play on teams that have a favorable turnover margin of at least 0.75 (negative values meaning they are forcing more TO than they are committing) and are facing a team that has unfavorable turnover margin of 0.75 and worse and the team has had three consecutive games with a favorable turnover margin of at least 1 in each of the three games.
Every season there is one or two teams that have been perennial losers and are hyped to unrealistic expectations that end up falling on their faces. It is not the players fault. It is the media and the herd mentality of their fan base. I have done extensive studies about human behavior in many different industries including life sciences and clinical trial projections to what this is all about – sports betting and predictions.
Browns are 5-17 ATS in home games when facing an opponent after Week 8 that is an elite passing team completing 64% or more of their pass attempts.
Browns are a college-fund draining 25-55 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games.
Tomlin is a solid 33-20 ATS as an underdog.
Tomlin is 12-4 ATS for 75% winning bets as a dog and facing a divisional opponent.
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||Top||27-24||Loss||-100||4 h 14 m||Show|
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the one undefeated team in the NFL and I expect they will be still undefeated after tonight’s MNF showcase. Three of the four divisions in the NMFC have leaders with at least seven wins, so the 49ers need to defend their home turf and maintain the gap between them and the rest.
Just two losses by the 49ers could put their playoff lives on the line. Just check the standings and you will see this to be true. 49ers are 8-0 because they earned it. They are second in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 12.8 PPG and third in the NFL in scoring offense averaging 29.4 PPG.
Seattle is a solid 7-2 team, but they lack the tenacious defense of the 49ers. Seattle ranks seventh in scoring offense averaging 26.7 PPG and rnak 23rd in scoring defense allowing 25.6 PPG.
The ability of the 49ers under Garoppolo to convert third downs (2nd in the NFL at 49%) and move the chains has worn down opposing defenses and it will wear down the Seahawks defense too. Seattle ranks 17th converting 40% of their third downs despite having Russell Wilson, who is having an MVP-like season.
49ers are the MNF bettor’s dream, over the years sporting a 39-13 ATS and 38-15 SU record since 1989. They rank first in both SU and ATS wins. The Eagles are a surprising second having earned a 32-20 ATS record and 30-22 SU record, which ranks third.
Machine learning projections call for the 49ers to gain at least 150 rushing yards and will gain at least 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which the 49ers achieved these performance measures, they earned an outstanding 11-5 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets. Seattle is just 6-17 ATS for 26% when they have allowed an opponent these levels of excellence in past games.
|11-10-19||Rams v. Steelers +4.5||Top||12-17||Win||100||4 h 49 m||Show|
Pittsburgh over the LA Rams
7-Star Bet is on the SteelersWhat Does the Machine Have for Us?
This situational query has earned an outstanding 35-12-1 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to play against favorites of 3 to 9 points after two consecutive games where the team covered the spread as a favorite and is now facing an opponent off a straight-up win.
Steelers are 32-13 ATS in home games when they gain between 300 and 350 total offensive yards.
|11-10-19||Lions +7 v. Bears||Top||13-20||Push||0||3 h 40 m||Show|
1:00 PM EST, November 10, 2019
The Bears scoring offense ranks 27th averaging 17.8 points-per-game (PPG) and their passing defense ranks 14th allowing 230 passing yards-per-game on the season.
This situational betting system has earned an outstanding 33-9 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
The requirements are to play on road teams that are excellent passing teams averaging 265 passing yards-per-game on the season and are facing a struggling passing defense allowing between 225 and 265 passing yards-per-game on the season and after two consecutive games allowing 7.0 or more passing yards-per-game.
|11-10-19||Giants v. Jets +3||Top||27-34||Win||100||2 h 27 m||Show|
New York Jets over the NY Giants
This situational betting system supports a bet on the Jets and has earned a 59-29-2 ATS record over the last 30 seasons. The system requirements are to bet on any team after five consecutive games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each of them and facing an opponent that had three or more turnovers in their last game.
This betting system has posted a 12-4 ATS record good for 75% winners since the start of the 2017 season.
Giants are just 16-31 ATS following a game in which they were outgained by 150 or more yards
|11-09-19||LSU +6.5 v. Alabama||Top||46-41||Win||100||8 h 0 m||Show|
7-Star on No. 1 LSU as they take on No. 2 Alabama
November 9, 2019
Whether you look at the CFP rankings that have LSU No. 2 and ‘Bama No. 3 or the AP poll that has LSU first and ‘Bama second, this is a Game of the Century and ranks right up there with the excitement of a Game-7.
My research shows that LSU has the potential to shred the Bama defense and score 35 or more points. LSU is43-18 ATS in games in which they passed for 10 or more yards-per-attempt; 31-11 ATS when they have gained 500 or more total yards; and 64-28 ATS when they have gained a minimum of 6.0 yards-per-play.
Whether Tua plays or not it will not matter as LSU head Coach Orgeron is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS when facing an elite passing team that is averaging 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt.
Bama is just 14-45 ATS and 1-5 ATS the last three seasons when allowing 28 or more points; 9-26 ATS when both teams score 28 or more points, and 2-8 ATS when they have allowed 500 or more offensive yards.
|11-09-19||Florida State +3 v. Boston College||Top||38-31||Win||100||16 h 35 m||Show|
Florida State vs Boston College
12:00 PM EST, November 9, 2019
10-Star on FSU
This is the first of many plays that will be released very early Saturday morning so be sure to come back and get on board a 15-4 ATS winning run.
Boston College was on eof my three upset alerts that went 2-0-1 SATS last week. They throttled Syracuse, who I, like many others, thought the ‘Cuse was going to be a solid team and one that would contend for a New Years Day Bowl Game.
BC gained a school record 691 total yards of offense and gashed the ‘Cuse for 496 rushing yards. I have always looked for teams that are performing at unsustainable levels that are playing against a teamj desperate for a win. The ‘Noles are certainly desperate. So desperate that they departed ways with their head coach Willie Taggert, who also took $18 million with him in his departure. Man would I like that gig! Even Steve Jobs didn’t get that kind of dismissal from Apple Computer and he was the founder.
This situational query has earned an outstanding 73-30-2 for 70% winning picks. The requirements are to play against home teams where the line is between a 3-point dog and a 3-point favorite, that has a struggling defense allowing 17 or more points in the first-half and after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.
|11-09-19||Penn State -6.5 v. Minnesota||Top||26-31||Loss||-109||5 h 49 m||Show|
No.5 Penn State over No. 13 Minnesota
10-Star bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions
A High-Noon showdown between two of the three undefeated Big Ten Conference schools.
Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan has been improving each week as the quarterback of the Gophers, but has not seen a pass rush like what PSU will bring to the table. The key though is not sacks or QB pressures by themselves, but containing RB Rodney Smith who has 5 consecutive 100+ rushing games. The Gophers are 15-1 SU when he rushes for 100+ yards in his career, which started in 2014.
PSU is second in scoring defense and first in the nation allowing just 2.2 rushing yards-per-game. No matter how you cut it, the Gophers offense will surprise the heck out of me, if they are able to sustain a long time-consuming scoring drive against the Lions defensive unit. The absence of a running game will turn the pass rush loose for the Lions making it immensely difficult to move the chains.
PSU head coach Franklin is 16-4 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals; 12-2 ATS off a road win; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.
This situational query has earned a 72-34 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play against any team after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games and is now playing a team with a winning record.
|11-08-19||Central Florida v. Tulsa +17.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
7-Star on Tulsa as they take on UCF in AAC action
November 8, 2019
Last night we went 2-0 with Temple defeating USF 17-7 as a ‘pick-em’ or perhaps you got +1. The second win was the Oakland Raiders, who are now 5-4 on the season and steadily becoming a team to be reckoned with as the season moves in to the second-half.
This is an upset alert type of play. On appear it is a long shot to be sure that Tulsa could pull off the upset, but there is value in assuming that risk for this bet. Tulsa is +630 on the money line and many of the 35 sportsbooks I monitor.
So, consider betting a 5.5-star amount getting the 17 points and then bet 1.5-Stars on the money line – just in case they do pull off the shocking upset. I never know when these upsets will occur, but I do know I have at least one of them in each years over the past 10 seasons.
Tulsa may be just 2-7, but they have played a extremely difficult schedule. Tulsa has posted a 36 SOS for the season while UCF has a much weaker 25 SOS. Penn State, Alabama, LSU, and Ohio State all have had SOS ratings between 35 and 38 by way of comparison. So, Tulsa is battle-tested and I expect them to bring their best to this game tonight
This situational betting query has earned a 34-20-1 record for 63% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet against road favorites of 15 to 23 points that have out gained their opponents by at least 125 yards-per-game on the season and have averaged at least 525 total yards over their last two games.
|11-04-19||Cowboys v. Giants +7||Top||37-18||Loss||-105||5 h 49 m||Show|
7-Star New York Giants over the dallas Cowboys 8:20 PM EST MNF
November 4, 2019
Conventional wisdom suggests that the Cowboys looked like an NFC contender in their dominating win over the divisional foe Eagles in the their last game. That win was needed to end a three-game losing streak and then the BYE week hit them. There can be good and bad with a BYE week. The good is the return to health of key personnel and the bad is that it abruptly ended the positive momentum they had off the Eagle win.
The Giants will have their own list of key personnel starting tonight and coming off the MASH unit list and I believe they will have enough play makers to stay in step with the Cowboys offense tonight.
The only item I do not like is that the line opened at 9 points and quickly moved to 7 and now some 6’s are appearing. This is betting flow where the smart money and the public money are on the same side. There is public money on the Cowboys. The average bet size right now is $45 on the Cowboys and $62 on the Giants, but 62% of the number of bets are on the Cowboys. By itself this is constructive for the Giants to cover and pull off a season-changing win.
This situational query is simple and has been a solid money-maker posting a 27-12 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to bet on all underdogs between 6 and 11 points that have been struggling teams winning less than 25% of their games on the season and facing a foe with a winning record, and the team has lost two of their last three games to the spread.
Now, if our brave revengeful dog is coming into this matchup having lost the last two matchups ot a division foe the record improves to 18-5 for 78% winning bets since 2000. The Giants have lost the five games facing the Cowboys.
The machine learning tools project that the Giants will score between 23 and 31 points. In past home games where the Giants did score between 23 and 31 points they have earned a solid 49-30-1 ATS mark for 62% winners when scoring 23 to 31 points including a perfect 3-0 ATS as a 6-point or more home dog.
The Cowboys are 0-11 ATS as a road favorite of 6 or more points and allowing the opponent to score between 23 And 31 points.
|11-03-19||Browns v. Broncos +4.5||Top||19-24||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
Denver Broncos over Cleveland Browns
This betting system has earned an outstanding 74-38 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team (Broncos in this case) coming off a game in which they committed just one or no turnovers and are facing an opponent that is coming off a -3 turnover margin game.
When I say the world is all over Cleveland it is an understatement on the grandest of scales. Of the books I track, a total of nearly $14,000,000 ($14MM) has been bet on the Browns and is the highest amount of any team in Week 9 action. What makes this even more alarming is that just $1,019,300 has been bet on Denver, which represents only 31% of the betting money flows. This is the widest gap I have seen in multiple years. Now, the public generally loses over time and please do NOT take this contrarian metric like is a LOCK and could never lose- cause it can lose. What I can tell you is that there is a 75% probability that this play wins for you and it also means there is a 25% chance this play can lose for you. The key discipline is to bet the same amounts each week and let the profits grind themselves out over the course of a season. I cannot emphasize this enough.
The machine learning summary projects that Denver will score 27 or more points, will gain between 350 and 400 yards and will have a fewer or equal number of turnovers than Cleveland. In past games in which Denver has had met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 33-6-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets including an 18-3 ATS 86% mark in home games.