Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-24 | Yankees v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Royals vs Yankees The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 49-32 record (61%) that has averaged a –115 wager and earned a 15% ROI and a $14,170 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor. Bet on a team that has batted 0.215 or lower spaning their previous seven games. The total is between 7 and 8.5 runs. The starter for our team has allowed no more than a single run in each of his last two starts. Our team has a winning record. |
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09-25-24 | Giants +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Giants at Diamondbacks Consider betting 3.5 units on the money line and 4.5 units on the +1.5-run line. The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 43-20 record for 68% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Bet on a road team that has lost more games than they won over their last 30 games. The road team has a winning record. The host has also lost more games than they won over their last 30 games. The host also has a winning record. The game occurs after the all-star break. The game is the last game of the series. |
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09-11-24 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
A’s vs Astros The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 47-9 record (84%) averaging a -102 bet resulting in a 45% ROI and making an $18,540 profit for the Dime Bettor and a $928 profit for the $50 per game bettor since 2019. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites using the –1.5 run line when the money line is priced between –175 and –250 on the money line. Divisional Matchup. The favorite is coming off a home loss by a single run priced as a favorite. Live Betting Strategy: Consider betting 7 units on the Astros with the run line preflop and then look for the A’s to score first or retake the lead during the first three innings only. The downside is that if the Astros score first and the A’s never get a lead the 3-units will not have an opportunity to be bet. That also implies that the 7-Unit bet is winning comfortably too. Any variation of this combination wager is your decision meaning betting 8.5 units preflop and then 1.5-units more is fine. The A’s will have Joey Estes on the hill, who is 6-7 in 20 starts with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP including 86 K’s. He has not solid in road games going 2-5 with a 6.66 ERA and has allowed 10 home runs over 48 ⅓ innings of work. He has faced the Astros once previously and allowed a 0.350 batting average with four walks and four strikeouts. The Astros will have Unter Brown on the hill, who is 11-7 in 27 starts with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP including 161 strikeouts spanning 153 innings of work. At home, he is 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 75 innings of work. The current A’s roster has struggled against Brown batting just 0.203 (12-for59). Brown has posted elite numbers across the board with an 85 MPH exit velocity, 30% hard-hit percentage, and a 25% strikeout percentage. Only 4.3% of batted balls in play have been barreled-up this season reflecting his excellent pitch movement and control. Last, Brown’s ERA over his last 10 starts has been one of the best in MLB at 1.78. |
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09-09-24 | Rays v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
Rays vs Phillies The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 40-18 record good for 69% winning bets that have averaged a –160-wager using the money line and a 31-27 record averaging a 135-wager using the –1.5 run line resulting in a 26% ROI and a $14,310 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $715 profit for the $50 per game bettor over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites of –125 or greater using the –1.5 run line. The game occurs after the all-star break. The matchup is an inter-league game. The total is less than 10 runs. The home team is starting a pitcher with a 1.3 or lower WHIP. The opponent is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 2.90 or lower. |
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09-05-24 | Phillies -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Phillies vs Marlins The Phillies have all but won the NL East Division title having a current 7-game lead, but they will not let up on the gas pedal. They currently trail the Dodgers by ½ game for the best record in the NL and have a 3-game lead over the third-best record held by the Brewers. The Top 2 records get the BYE in the first round of the playoffs, which is monumentally important as they will then face a winner from the high-leverage 3-game Wild Card Round. The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 33-4 SU and 29-7 –1.5-run line record that has averaged a –120 favorite resulting in a 55% ROI and a $22,920 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $1,146 profit for the $50-per-game bettor. The requirements are: Bet on road favorites using the –1.5 run line with the money line priced at –170 or greater. It is the first game of a series. The opponent is coming off an extra-innings game and is playing with no rest. If the game occurs after the all-star break these road teams have gone a near-perfect 16-1 SU (94%) averaging a –120 wager using the run line and producing a 74% ROI making a $14,300 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $715 profit for the $50 per-game bettor and reflects that even a smaller bettor can reap the benefits of my more than 5,000 betting algorithms across all sports by getting on board with a subscription that includes these 10-UNIT bets at a price of $250 for the next 90-days of all access plays. If you prefer a shorter time frame $150 will get you the next 30 days (about 4 and a half weeks) across all sports and every best bet, I release. |
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08-30-24 | Mets v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Mets vs CWS This looks like. crazy bet to make tonight but as the following research reveals there are many solid intelligent reasons to get on this bet. One option is to bet 6-Units on the +1.5 run-line and 2-Units on the money line priced at +185 for a bit more aggressive play. The following betting algorithm has produced a 48-48 (50%) record averaging a 148-underdog bet resulting in a terrific 22% ROI and making a $27,780 profit for the Dime Bettor and $1,389 profit for the $50-per-game bettor since 2019. Using the +1.5 run-line has produced a 62-34 (65%) record averaging a –111 wager resulting in a 25% ROI and making a $28,840 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $1,442 profit for the $50 per game bettor. The requirements are: Bet on home dogs that are batting less than 0.240 over their last 10 games. The dog is starting a pitcher that has allowed 5 or more runs (earned and unearned combined) in each of his last two starts. Granted this is certainly a ‘Hold Your Nose” betting opportunity placing money on a historically poor team, but the situation warrants and identifiesexactly why. You never have to bet every game I recommend either and I have zero ego so do not worry about hurting my feelings if you read this and decided there was no chance you were going to wager on the CWS. The Blackjack MLB Betting Connection The reason I call these betting algorithms Blackjack Betting systems has nothing to do with the game strategy involved with the most popular casino game on the planet, but it does have to do with the payouts of the game and the algorithm. In the game of Blackjack you are paid $100 for a winning $100 hand/bet and 3:2 odds for getting Blackjack, which is 21 attained with the first two cards dealt to you. Let’s remove the 3:2 payout for simplicity reasons. The betting algorithm above has made 96 bets. In Blackjack if you play 96 $100 hands and win 48 and lose 48 of them, you would have made nothing. However, in this specific betting algorithm you would have been paid $148 for every winning hand/bet made, which turns into a $2,780 profit per $100 per game bet. That is far better results than sitting at a BJ table and you do not even have to leave the comfort of your home. |
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08-20-24 | Angels v. Royals -1.5 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Angels vs Royals The following betting algorithm has gone 77-23 (77%) and 62-38 (62%) using the run line line that has resulted in a 27% ROI and a $30,390 profit for the $1,000-per-game bettor and an $608 profit for the $50-per-game bettor over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites using the –1.5 run line that are priced at –150 and greater using the money line. The game is a non-divisional matchup. That home team has scored 25 or more riuns over their previous three games. That home team was the favorite in their previous game. The total is priced between 7 and 9 runs. The game is not the last game of the series. |
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08-13-24 | Yankees v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Premium Best Bets for August 13, 2024 Yankees vs CWS I strongly recommend splitting this bet into two parts with 3-units on the money line and 5-Units on the +1.5-run line. Just goes to show you that betting on dogs in specific situations can prove to be quite profitable every season and last night’s shocker on the CWS happens more often than people think. Over the past five season betting on dogs priced at +235 and higher using the money line has produced a 94-213 record for just 31% winning bets, but by averaging a 275 underdog wager gas resulted in a solid 10%ROI and a profit of $52,250 for the $1,000-per-game bettor and a $2,612.50 profit for the $50-per-game bettor. In 2024 simply blindly betting on dogs of +235 and higher has gone 11-21 for 33% but has averaged a 23% ROI and a $12,250 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $612.50 profit for the $50-per-game bettor. Extremely simple to do and it makes money each season! The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 14-33 SU record for just 30% winners but by averaging a 300-underdog bet has resulted in a 15% ROi and a $14,150 profit for the $1,000 per game bettor and a $707.50 profit for the $50 per game better. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs of 235 and higher using the money line. The favorite has won 40 or more games than the underdog in the current season. |
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08-12-24 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Premium Best Bets for August 12, 2024 Rockies vs Diamondbacks The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 54-13 record for 81% and has averaged a –171-favorite bet resulting in a 37% ROI and a $33,760 profit for the Dime Bettor or a $1,688 profit for the $50 per game bettor. The requirements are: Bet on favorites when the underdog is priced at 125 or higher. That underdog is coming off an upset home win. That underdog overcame a three or more run deficit to get that win. The dog’s previous opponent left fewer than 10 runners on base. If the dog is priced at 175 or higher, these favorites have gone an incredible 16-2 for 89% winning bets and 15-3 using the –1.5 run line averaging a –1340-wager resulting in a 45% ROI and earning a $11,750 profit for the $1,000 per game better or a $587.50 profit for the $50-per-game bettor. As most of you already know we are coming off a terrific Sunday winning both underdog and the parlay too. The Rockies defeated the Braves and the A’s destroyed the Blue Jays. The parlay was priced with the Rockies +152 and the A’s priced at +139 for a return of $502.28 on a $100 bet. Now, we are on a significant favorite but catching their opponent coming off a big upset win and a team that is one of the worst in the league. |
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07-02-24 | Reds +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
Premium Best Bets for July 2, 2024 Reds vs Yankees An alternative betting strategy is to place 5-units on the +1.5-run line and 3-Units on the money line. That is meant to be a total of 8-Units for this alternative bet. The following MLB situational betting algorithm has produced a 122-172 record for 41% winning bets but by averaging a 172-underdog bet has produced an 11.5% ROI over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs where the favorite is priced between a 170- and 230 favorite. The favorite is batting 0.240 or lower spanning their last 10 games. That favorite saw their bullpen allow 5 or more runs in their previous game. If the game is an inter-league matchup these dogs have done very well going 24-29 (45%) averaging a 183-underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 23% ROI and a $17,630 profit for the Dime Bettor. |
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06-27-24 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -128 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Marlins vs Phillies The following MLB betting algorithm has gone 37-1 (97%) averaging a -210-favorite wager resulting in an 82% ROI and making a $34,400 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2020. The requirements are: Bet on a NL home team when the dog is priced between 175 and 250 using the money line. They have a terrific start posting an ERA of 3.50 or better in the current season. The guest is scoring only 3.8 or fewer runs per game in the current season. The road team has posted a terrible OBP of 0.310 or lower spanning their previous 20 games. Wheeler is on the hill for the Phillies and he is 10-1 on the run line averaging a –135 wager and earning a 49% ROI in games where the Phillies have been priced as –250 or greater favorites. He is 5-1 on the Run Line for a 59% ROI when at home, priced as a –200 or greater favorite, and facing a divisional foe. |
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06-14-24 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Twins vs Athletics The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 73-22 (77%) averaging a177-underdog bet resulting in a 27% ROI and a $31,424 profit for the Dime Bettor spanning the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on home favorites that are priced as –150 on the money line but using the –1.5 run line. That home favorite has scored 25 or more runs over their previous three games. The total is between 7 and 9 runs. The game is a non-divisional matchup and not the last game of a series. |
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06-10-24 | A's v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 112 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Athletics vs Padres The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 57-35 record (62%) averaging a –102 wager which has earned a 26% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $31,420 profit over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on a home favorite that has scored 25 or more runs over their past three games. The home favorite is priced at –155 or greater. The game is a non-divisional matchup. The total is priced between 7 and 9 runs. The game is not the first game of a series. |
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05-30-24 | Yankees v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Yankees vs Angels The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 32-10 record for 76% winning bets averaging a –105 wager and earning a 54% ROI over the past five seasons The requirements are: Bet on home dogs with a 1.5 run line with vig between –130 and +110. That dog is batting 0.260 or lower in the current season. They are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 5.70 and 6.20. Facing an AL foe that has a solid ERA of 3.20 or lower. |
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05-23-24 | Rangers +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
Rangers vs Phillies Consider betting 4-Units using the money line and 4-units using the +1.5-run line for a more conservative strategy. We are getting paid a great price in this matchup to bet the dog despite the historic start to the season that the Phillies have achieved sporting the best-ever record through 50 games in franchise history. The Phillies may win this game and on any given day no one has a crystal ball that provides 100% winners. What we have here though is a contrarian situation that if followed and bet on when it is active has produced profits in 9 of the previous 10 seasons. The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 51-56 record, but by averaging a 153-bet using the money line has resulted in a 16% ROI and a $23,650 profit for the Dime Bettor over the past five seasons. The requirements are: Bet on AL road dogs profited between 125 and 175 using the money line. The dog’s starter has posted an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 in the current season. The favorite has a starter averaging five or more strikeouts per game in the current season. If this game is the last game of the series these dogs have gone 18-18m but by averaging a 156 wager has resulted in a highly profitable 23% ROI and a $10,130 profit for the Dime Bettor. Also, if we check the +1.5 runline, we find that has gone 26-10 for 72% averaging a –140 wager resulting in a 24% ROi and a $13,190 profit. Zack Wheeler is on the hill for the Phillies and he is odds-on-favorite right now to win the NL Cy Young Award. Normally, the market would have Wheeler priced at a minimum of a –225 home favorite no matter who they are facing, especially when they are facing Texas Rangers’ starter Andrew Heany, who is 0-5 with a 4.433 ERA and a 1.231 WHIP for the season. Heaney is a veteran left-handed starter and eight of the 14 Phillies’ losses have come against LH starters this season. In 20 games when facing a LH starter, the Phillies have batted 0.247 and scored 4.8 RPG significantly lower than their season-to-date and top-ranked scoring average of 5.5 RPG. The Phillies team record is 12-8 averaging a –147 wager resulting in a 5% ROI this season. In this game we are getting a great inflated price of +180 to assume the risk of betting this situation. The following run line betting algorithm has produced a 34-8 record (81%) making $25,740 for the Dime Bettor spanning the last 25 seasons. The requirements are: Bet on underdogs using the +1.5-run line when the money line has them priced as a 110 or greater dog. The dog is from the Al. The dog is scoring between 4.4 and4.99 RPG in the current season. The dog has scored four or fewer runs in three consecutive games. The NL favorite is startingpitcher with an ERA under 3.00. |
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05-19-24 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
Nationals vs Phillies 1:35 ET | Citizens Bank Park 8-Unit bet on the Phillies using the run line. The following MLB betting algorithm has gone 48-32 using the -1.5-run line averaging a -115 wager for a 17% ROI and making a $15,840 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2010. The requirements are: · Bet on home teams using the -1.5-run line and with the money line lined priced as -200 and greater favorites. · The game is the last game of the series. · The home team won by one run in the previous game. · The game occurs in the first half of the regular season. If the previous game was won in walk-off fashion these home teams get even better posting a 30-14 record using the run line earning a 33% ROI and making $16,160 for the Dime Bettor since 2010. The Phillies are 14-3 following a game with seven or fewer hits this season; 13-4 in home games following a home win and having seven or fewer hits in that win. |
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05-17-24 | Padres v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
Padres vs Braves 8-Unit Bet on the Braves using the -1.5 run line. The following MLB betting algorithm has gone15-12 averaging a -100-betting line for a solid 20% ROI and has made a $44,640 profit for the Dime Bettor. The requirements are: · Bet on home favorites. · The road dog is coming off a terrible shutout loss priced as a -200 or greater favorite. Teams that were shutout in their previous game and were priced as a 170 and greater favorite and now on the road priced as a 140 or greater underdog are an imperfect 0-7 averaging a 175 underdog for as 51% ROI. |
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05-06-24 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Marlins vs Dodgers The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 14-0 record and an 11-3 record (79%) using the -1.5-run line that has averaged a -111 wager producing a 55% ROI and earning the Dime bettor a $9,150 profit on just 14 placed bets since 2016. The requirements are: · Betting on NL home favorites using the -1.5 run line · The favorite is scoring an average of 5 or more RPG. · The opponent has a starting pitching staff posting a 3.50 or lower ERA on the season. · The favorite has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their last two games. A word of caution is that eventually this system will have a shocking loss so do yourself a favor and bet this game as the 5-Unit grading and not presume it is going to win even for a minute. My profits come from the discipline of betting the same amounts each day no matter in the previous day or week or month was a great one or a losing one. The season makes money and has done so for 8 consecutive seasons. |
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05-06-24 | Giants v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
Giants vs Phillies The following betting algorithm has produced a 60-19 record and a 47-32 -1.5 run line mark for 60% winning bets that have averaged a -115-wager earning a 19% ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $15,740 profit since 2011. The requirements are: · Bet on home favorites using the -1.5 run line and are priced at -200 or more using the money line. · The game occurs in the first half of the season. · The favorite is coming off a win by one run exact. · The game is the last game of the series. If the favorite is from the NL they improve to 31-7 (82%) and 26-12 (68%) averaging a -112 wager using the -1.5 run line resulting in a 33% Roi and making the Dime Bettor a $14,830 profit. |
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04-21-24 | Mets +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Mets vs Dodgers 4:10 ET | Dodger Stadium 8-Unit bet on the New York Mets priced at +190 using the money line. The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 24-18 record, averaging a +139-underdog wager has earned a 32% ROI making the Dime Bettor a $17,840 profit. The requirements are: · Bet on road teams facing a host that has won between 50 and 55% of their games on the season. · The home team has lost the first two games of a three-game series. |
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04-02-24 | Braves v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 117 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs CWS7:40 EST | Guaranteed Rate Field8-Unit bet on the CWS using the +1.5 run line priced at +115 using the money line.
Consider betting 5.5 units on the run line and 2.5 units on the money line. The following betting algorithm has produced a terrific and highly profitable 40-38 record averaging a +154 wager and earning the Dime Player a profit of $29,490 and a juicy 29% ROI since 2007. The requirements are: · Bet on home underdogs of 125 and greater. · The underdog is averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game. · The underdog was shutout in their previous game. Betting on the CWS with their anemic start and 0-4 record is a classic contrarian bet. They are facing the 3-1 Atlanta Braves, who are one of the favorites to win the NL pennant. The Braves took three of four games from as solid Phillies squad. Given this situation, the market has overpriced the Braves in this situation. There is no guarantee this upset will happen, but I can tell you with extreme confidence that if you bet these situations over the course of a month and a season they are going to come through with significant profits. The Weather Forecast The forecast is not good, especially for Wednesday where the Chicago region could get an inch ot more of snow. For Tuesday, rain and wind is expected right up to game time. The game may start an hour or so late, but based on current information the game will not be cancelled. If the game is cancelled, the same bet can be made when the next game takes place as long as the CWS are priced as 125 and greater underdogs. |
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10-07-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies as prescribed at the end of the report or on the +1.5 run line. A Pair of NL East Divisional rivals square off to play a best-of-five series to determine, who will advance to the NLCS starting Saturday at 6:00 PM EST at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The weather at game time is expected to be 63 degrees with wind gusts up to 20 MPH out of the northwest throughout the game. The relative humidity will be extremely low at 25% so overall great weather for a baseball game. This season, the NL East division was dominated once again by the Braves, who went 104-58 averaging a -165 wager, but earning only a 1.5% ROI. The Phillies earned the top wild card berth by way of a 92-72 record averaging a -121 wager but producing a -1.7% ROI. The scant ROI’s for both teams is a reflection of how well the market priced these teams over a 162-game season. The Braves played exceptional ball at Truist Park sporting a 52-29 record averaging a -184 bet, but a money losing -1.5% ROI. The Phillies played consistent baseball on the road going 41-40 averaging a -105 wager, but a money-losing 5% ROI. The Weather Forecast for Game 1The wind will be blowing out to left field and may be a factor for balls hit very high. The stadium, is quite high behind home plate and extends down both the first and third base sides and shields the wind from the playing surface. So, the wind may not be a huge factor contributing to home runs being hit tonight. The setting sun will only be a problem for fans sitting on the third base side for about the first 45 minutes of the game. The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to FaceThe Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against the Braves, who will have to be at their best if they want to hold home field and advance to play in the NLCS. The Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, was dominant in Game 1 of their wild card sweep over the Miami Marlins. Then in Game 2, Aaron Nola was equally as dominating, but it created somewhat of an issue for the brain trust to decide the pitching rotation for this series knowing the Braves would have their best rotation in place starter with Spencer Strider. So, it was not surprising to see the Phillies elect to start left-hander Ranger Suarez for Game 1, who went just 4-6 in 22 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP including 119 strikeouts and 48 walks over 125 innings of work. He is a craft left-handed pitcher with a wide array and variation of pitches he uses to keep batters guessing. He uses a heavy late-sinking fastball about 50% of the time then mixes in a cutter 15%, change 18%, and curve 17%. His change is exceptional and used mostly against right-handed batters, but he will use it occasionally to left-handed batters. His fastball will top out at 95 MPH and average 93 MPH. His curve will have big-time late breaking movement attributed to a spin rate around 2,100 RPM. All of his pitches average about 2,000 RPM and that consistency make it tough for batters to identify what pitch is coming their way. Spencer Strider had a tremendous season posting a 20-5 record in 32 starts including a league-high 281 strike outs spanning 186 2/3 innings of work. He made 11 starts in which he struck out 10 or more batters, but the Phillies, as a team, are one of the most disciplined in MLB. Three of his five losses occurred at Truist Park where he went 8-3 in 16 starts with a mediocre 4.35 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP including 153 strikeouts over 93 innings of work. The biggest fact that the Phillies must overcome is that he went 11-0 in 12 starts against divisional foes with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP including 102 strikeouts over 73 1/3 innings of work. The biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen and the scheduling of this series, which includes three days off allowing for even greater rest and managerial options. Their bullpen is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs and have posted a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and just six walks over their seven games spanning 27 innings of work. The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-27 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -108 wager and earning a 55% ROI in games played over the past 25 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams who are facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 and following a game in which their bullpen allowed 5 or more runs. Now, the fact that the last game the Braves played was meaningless does diminish that parameter of the algorithm so let’s substitute another game parameter for it. In the playoffs, road dogs of 125 and higher and facing a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 have gone a quite impressive 29-26 for 53%, but by averaging a +155 wager have earned a highly profitable 28% ROI. Last, teams that won their previous game by 5 or more runs to close out a series are 8-7 averaging a +140 wager and a 29.5% ROI and a remarkable 11-3 on the +1.5-run line earning and 35% ROI. My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the +1.5 run line and a 4-Unit amount using the money line as offered at DraftKings. Player Props for this GameSpencer Strider OVER 1,5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 Total: +965 |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Monday – Seattle Mariners vs CWS Start Time is 8:10 PM EST. Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the -1.5-run line and then look for the CWS to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action to add the 1-unit on the money line. Betting on favorites of -150 or greater on the money line with the run line that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season and is facing a struggling foe that is scoring just 4.25 or fewer RPG has produced a 23-13 ML record and a 20-16 Run Line record averaging a +105 RL wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2016. The Mariners have caught fire since putting all-star Julio Rodriguez in the leadoff spot of the batting order having won five consecutive games and have won 15 of their last 18 games to close to within three games of Al Division-leading Texas Rangers and with 2.5 games of the reigning world champion Houston Astros. The Mariners hold the third wild card berth by just a ½-game over the Toronto Blue Jays and by three games over the surging Boston Red Sox. The CWS are playing out the remainder of the season and have lost 12 of their last 17 games and allowed 30 runs to the Colorado Rockies in their three set over the weekend. Starting tonight for the CWS is Touki Toussaint, who is just 1-5 in eight starts with a 5.26 ERA and 1.519 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0-2 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.954WHIP.
Boston vs Houston |
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08-10-23 | Royals v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Thursday – Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Consider splitting this 8-Unit amount into two parts consisting of a 6-Unit amount using the -1.5-run line and then add a 2-Unit amount on the -1.5-run line if the Red Sox fall behind at any point during the first three innings of action. Betting on home teams using the -1.5-run line that has an on-base-percentage of 0.260or lower spanning their last three games and with their bullpen struggling to an ERA of 7.00 or worse over their last 10 games has produced an outstanding 50-26-1 record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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05-05-23 | Orioles v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Baltimore vs Atlanta 8-Unit best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 Run line |
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09-06-22 | Braves v. A's +1.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Atlanta Braves vs Oakland A’s 4% 8-Unit bets best on the A’s using the +1.5-run line Betting against road favorites using the run line with a money line price between a 130 dog and 255 favorite and with a total of 8 or fewer runs that is averaging a minimum of 4.5 RPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games allowing no more than one run in either game has produced a 65-47 record, but has averaged a 116 Run Line bet producing an 18% ROI over the past five seasons. Oakland is 22-11 making 14 unit son the run line when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons. |
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09-06-22 | Mets v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 110 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4% 8-Unit bets Bet on the Run Line with the Pirates An alternative strategy and the way I will be betting this game is to place a 2% amount on the moneyline and a 2% 4-Unit amount using the run line. Betting on home teams that are scoring 3.8 or fewer RPG and has been hitting poorly at .215 or worse over their last 15 games and now facing a good team with a good bullpen that has posted an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 90-59 record good for 60% winners, averaging a +115 dog and producing a 35% ROI over the last 25 seasons. |
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08-25-22 | Rockies +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Colorado vs New York Mets 4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Colorado Rockies using the +1.5-run line For this game, I am splitting into two bets with the Rockies as a 1% 2-unit wager on the money line and a 3% 6-Unit wager on the +1.5-run line getting +160 or more. Since 2004, favorites of –400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs has seen that favorite go 19-8, but by averaging a –432 wager has lost 15 units resulting in a -23% ROI. In the same scenario, these huge favorites have gone 13-11 averaging a –205 bet using the –1.5 run line resulting in a –20% ROI since 2004. Rockies are 30-16 making 14 units on the moneyline revenging a loss in which they scored no more than a single run in games played over the last two seasons. |
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08-23-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
MLB had one best bet Monday and it came through on the winning side as the Philadelphia Phillies knocked off the Reds. Here is tonight’s best bet featuring a pair of situational angles with one nailing down winners at a 75% clip. |
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08-19-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 140 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Washington Nationals +270 vs San Diego Padres -330 The Washington Nationals are arguably the worst team in MLB, but they were heroes last night as they were my best bet on the MLB Angle of the Day show. This quick-hitting video can be seen Monday through Friday and always features a highly profitable time-tested situational angle and system that you can track and use for your own betting opportunities. The Washington Nationals are my bet again tonight when they host the San Diego Padres and are priced as enormous underdogs. Situational Trends and Angles The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins in this matchup. The Padres are 27-46 losing 40 units on the moneyline when facing an NL team that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of each of the last two seasons The Nationals are 7-2 making 11 units on the moneyline following two consecutive Under results in games played this season. The Padres are 5-10 losing 11.1 units on the moneyline in home games after allowing four or fewer runs in three consecutive games this season. I am going to the window betting the Nationals on the +1.5 run line +140 as offered at FanDuel. |
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07-28-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies 4% Best Bet Dodgers on the –1.5 Run Line I also like a team total bet of 1% amount OVER Dodgers team total Dodgers are 55-36 on the run line when facing a bullpen that is overused and averages 3.2 innings per game on the season; 54-34 when facing a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game, and LA Dodger starter Tyler Anderson is 12-4 on the run line when facing a team that strikeouts 7+ times per game. Dodgers are also 31-12 on the run line after allowing two or fewer runs I games played this season and 12-3 on the run line following a win of 6 or ore runs in games played this season. |
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07-03-22 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
LA Angels vs Houston Astros 2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022 4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004. Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games. Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line. |
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06-26-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
Philadelphia vs San Diego 4:10 EDT, June 26, 2022 4% best bet on the Phillies using the +1.5 run line Harper has a broken thumb and will be out indefinitely, which is a huge loss, but somehow, this may be the situation, that wakes up the entire roster and has everyone stepping up their game. Even without Harper in the lineup, the Phillies are a formidable offensive force. Harper is a loss, but they have plenty of depth in this lineup to get through the next 4 to 6 weeks without him and remain in playoff contention. Betting on road teams using the +1.5 run line facing a host whose bullpen did not give an ER in two straight games and is starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a 1.100 over his last 10 starts has earned a highly profitable 78-40 record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The SU record has been 58-60. |
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06-05-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
Detroit Tigers vs NY Yankees 11:35 AM EST, June 5, 2022 3% best bet on the Detroit Tigers on the run line and a 1.5% best bet on the Money line. I will be discussing the handicapping concept of regression each on the Full Count Show this week as well as my 2-minute quick-hitting free pick MLV videos airing M-F on the Predictive Playbook channel. Bes uyre to tune in for more in-depth analysis of this profitable strategy. So, home teams favored by –175 or more that have outscored their opponents by 100 or more runs in games played in the month of June are horrid ones to back with your money. They have earned a 49-30 record for 62% wins, BUT have averaged a –225.3 favorite and the result is a massive loss of $2,.115 wager just $100 per game played on these juggernaut teams. Fading these powerful teams has averaged a +205 underdog bet, making $1570 per $100 wagered for a solid 23% return-on-investment (ROI). If our favorites are lined on the –1.5 run line at =140 or more (more negative, more favored), then the run line record has been 7-8 betting against them, producing a 25% ROI averaging a +140 +1.5 run line wager on our barking underdog. |
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08-13-21 | Rockies +1.5 v. Giants | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
olorado vs San Francisco 9:45 EST, August 13, 2021 4-UNIT play on the Run Line betting Colorado Betting on road teams of at least +110 in the first game of a series and facing a hot bullpen that has posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower spanning their last five games has produced a 90-75 record, averaging a +155 dog bet and making the $100 bettor a $5100 profit over the last five seasons. From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that San Fran is just 2-12 as a home favorite of -150 and greater when the opponent has had 2 or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the last three seasons. |