|Phillies +1.5 v. Braves
|8 h 39 m
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies as prescribed at the end of the report or on the +1.5 run line.
A Pair of NL East Divisional rivals square off to play a best-of-five series to determine, who will advance to the NLCS starting Saturday at 6:00 PM EST at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The weather at game time is expected to be 63 degrees with wind gusts up to 20 MPH out of the northwest throughout the game. The relative humidity will be extremely low at 25% so overall great weather for a baseball game.
This season, the NL East division was dominated once again by the Braves, who went 104-58 averaging a -165 wager, but earning only a 1.5% ROI. The Phillies earned the top wild card berth by way of a 92-72 record averaging a -121 wager but producing a -1.7% ROI. The scant ROI’s for both teams is a reflection of how well the market priced these teams over a 162-game season. The Braves played exceptional ball at Truist Park sporting a 52-29 record averaging a -184 bet, but a money losing -1.5% ROI. The Phillies played consistent baseball on the road going 41-40 averaging a -105 wager, but a money-losing 5% ROI.The Weather Forecast for Game 1
The wind will be blowing out to left field and may be a factor for balls hit very high. The stadium, is quite high behind home plate and extends down both the first and third base sides and shields the wind from the playing surface. So, the wind may not be a huge factor contributing to home runs being hit tonight. The setting sun will only be a problem for fans sitting on the third base side for about the first 45 minutes of the game.The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to Face
The Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against the Braves, who will have to be at their best if they want to hold home field and advance to play in the NLCS.
The Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, was dominant in Game 1 of their wild card sweep over the Miami Marlins. Then in Game 2, Aaron Nola was equally as dominating, but it created somewhat of an issue for the brain trust to decide the pitching rotation for this series knowing the Braves would have their best rotation in place starter with Spencer Strider.
So, it was not surprising to see the Phillies elect to start left-hander Ranger Suarez for Game 1, who went just 4-6 in 22 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP including 119 strikeouts and 48 walks over 125 innings of work. He is a craft left-handed pitcher with a wide array and variation of pitches he uses to keep batters guessing. He uses a heavy late-sinking fastball about 50% of the time then mixes in a cutter 15%, change 18%, and curve 17%. His change is exceptional and used mostly against right-handed batters, but he will use it occasionally to left-handed batters. His fastball will top out at 95 MPH and average 93 MPH. His curve will have big-time late breaking movement attributed to a spin rate around 2,100 RPM. All of his pitches average about 2,000 RPM and that consistency make it tough for batters to identify what pitch is coming their way.
Spencer Strider had a tremendous season posting a 20-5 record in 32 starts including a league-high 281 strike outs spanning 186 2/3 innings of work. He made 11 starts in which he struck out 10 or more batters, but the Phillies, as a team, are one of the most disciplined in MLB. Three of his five losses occurred at Truist Park where he went 8-3 in 16 starts with a mediocre 4.35 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP including 153 strikeouts over 93 innings of work. The biggest fact that the Phillies must overcome is that he went 11-0 in 12 starts against divisional foes with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP including 102 strikeouts over 73 1/3 innings of work.
The biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen and the scheduling of this series, which includes three days off allowing for even greater rest and managerial options. Their bullpen is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs and have posted a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and just six walks over their seven games spanning 27 innings of work.The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-27 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -108 wager and earning a 55% ROI in games played over the past 25 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams who are facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 and following a game in which their bullpen allowed 5 or more runs.
Now, the fact that the last game the Braves played was meaningless does diminish that parameter of the algorithm so let’s substitute another game parameter for it. In the playoffs, road dogs of 125 and higher and facing a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 have gone a quite impressive 29-26 for 53%, but by averaging a +155 wager have earned a highly profitable 28% ROI.
Last, teams that won their previous game by 5 or more runs to close out a series are 8-7 averaging a +140 wager and a 29.5% ROI and a remarkable 11-3 on the +1.5-run line earning and 35% ROI.
My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the +1.5 run line and a 4-Unit amount using the money line as offered at DraftKings.Player Props for this Game
Spencer Strider OVER 1,5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145
Trea Turner to hit a home run +450MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results
1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100
2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115
3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400
4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100
5. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100
6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450
7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100
|Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox
|8 h 50 m
Monday – Seattle Mariners vs CWS
Start Time is 8:10 PM EST.
Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the -1.5-run line and then look for the CWS to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action to add the 1-unit on the money line.
Betting on favorites of -150 or greater on the money line with the run line that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season and is facing a struggling foe that is scoring just 4.25 or fewer RPG has produced a 23-13 ML record and a 20-16 Run Line record averaging a +105 RL wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2016.
The Mariners have caught fire since putting all-star Julio Rodriguez in the leadoff spot of the batting order having won five consecutive games and have won 15 of their last 18 games to close to within three games of Al Division-leading Texas Rangers and with 2.5 games of the reigning world champion Houston Astros. The Mariners hold the third wild card berth by just a ½-game over the Toronto Blue Jays and by three games over the surging Boston Red Sox.
The CWS are playing out the remainder of the season and have lost 12 of their last 17 games and allowed 30 runs to the Colorado Rockies in their three set over the weekend. Starting tonight for the CWS is Touki Toussaint, who is just 1-5 in eight starts with a 5.26 ERA and 1.519 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0-2 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.954WHIP.
Boston vs Houston
|Royals v. Red Sox -1.5
|6 h 22 m
Thursday – Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
Consider splitting this 8-Unit amount into two parts consisting of a 6-Unit amount using the -1.5-run line and then add a 2-Unit amount on the -1.5-run line if the Red Sox fall behind at any point during the first three innings of action.
Betting on home teams using the -1.5-run line that has an on-base-percentage of 0.260or lower spanning their last three games and with their bullpen struggling to an ERA of 7.00 or worse over their last 10 games has produced an outstanding 50-26-1 record for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.
|Orioles v. Braves -1.5
|5 h 47 m
Baltimore vs Atlanta
8-Unit best bet on the Braves using the –1.5 Run line
|Braves v. A's +1.5
|8 h 58 m
Atlanta Braves vs Oakland A’s
4% 8-Unit bets best on the A’s using the +1.5-run line
Betting against road favorites using the run line with a money line price between a 130 dog and 255 favorite and with a total of 8 or fewer runs that is averaging a minimum of 4.5 RPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games allowing no more than one run in either game has produced a 65-47 record, but has averaged a 116 Run Line bet producing an 18% ROI over the past five seasons.
Oakland is 22-11 making 14 unit son the run line when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by at least 0.5 RPG in games played in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
|Mets v. Pirates +1.5
|5 h 53 m
NY Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates
4% 8-Unit bets Bet on the Run Line with the Pirates
An alternative strategy and the way I will be betting this game is to place a 2% amount on the moneyline and a 2% 4-Unit amount using the run line.
Betting on home teams that are scoring 3.8 or fewer RPG and has been hitting poorly at .215 or worse over their last 15 games and now facing a good team with a good bullpen that has posted an ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned an outstanding 90-59 record good for 60% winners, averaging a +115 dog and producing a 35% ROI over the last 25 seasons.
|Rockies +1.5 v. Mets
|10 h 33 m
Colorado vs New York Mets
4% 8-Unit Best bet on the Colorado Rockies using the +1.5-run line
For this game, I am splitting into two bets with the Rockies as a 1% 2-unit wager on the money line and a 3% 6-Unit wager on the +1.5-run line getting +160 or more. Since 2004, favorites of –400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs has seen that favorite go 19-8, but by averaging a –432 wager has lost 15 units resulting in a -23% ROI. In the same scenario, these huge favorites have gone 13-11 averaging a –205 bet using the –1.5 run line resulting in a –20% ROI since 2004.
Rockies are 30-16 making 14 units on the moneyline revenging a loss in which they scored no more than a single run in games played over the last two seasons.
|Reds v. Phillies -1.5
|2 h 52 m
MLB had one best bet Monday and it came through on the winning side as the Philadelphia Phillies knocked off the Reds. Here is tonight’s best bet featuring a pair of situational angles with one nailing down winners at a 75% clip.
|Nationals +1.5 v. Padres
|5 h 43 m
Washington Nationals +270 vs San Diego Padres -330
The Washington Nationals are arguably the worst team in MLB, but they were heroes last night as they were my best bet on the MLB Angle of the Day show. This quick-hitting video can be seen Monday through Friday and always features a highly profitable time-tested situational angle and system that you can track and use for your own betting opportunities. The Washington Nationals are my bet again tonight when they host the San Diego Padres and are priced as enormous underdogs.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Marlins in this matchup.
The Padres are 27-46 losing 40 units on the moneyline when facing an NL team that is batting .250 or lower in games played in the second half of each of the last two seasons
The Nationals are 7-2 making 11 units on the moneyline following two consecutive Under results in games played this season.
The Padres are 5-10 losing 11.1 units on the moneyline in home games after allowing four or fewer runs in three consecutive games this season.
I am going to the window betting the Nationals on the +1.5 run line +140 as offered at FanDuel.
|Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies
|5 h 14 m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
4% Best Bet Dodgers on the –1.5 Run Line
I also like a team total bet of 1% amount OVER Dodgers team total
Dodgers are 55-36 on the run line when facing a bullpen that is overused and averages 3.2 innings per game on the season; 54-34 when facing a foe that averages 7+ strikeouts per game, and LA Dodger starter Tyler Anderson is 12-4 on the run line when facing a team that strikeouts 7+ times per game.
Dodgers are also 31-12 on the run line after allowing two or fewer runs I games played this season and 12-3 on the run line following a win of 6 or ore runs in games played this season.
|Angels +1.5 v. Astros
|4 h 21 m
LA Angels vs Houston Astros
2:10 EDT, July 3, 2022
4% best bet on the Angels using the +1.5-run line
Angels lost the first two games of this three-game series badly by a combined scored of 17-2. The predictive models have targeted the Angels to play significantly better and have a much better day at the plate and on the scoreboard. Betting on road teams using the +1.5-run line that are facing a host that defeated them by eight or more runs in the previous game and starting a pitcher in strong form with an ERA of 3.00 over his last 10 starts has produced a 30-10 record good for 75% winning bets since 2004.
Angels are 38-234 on the +1.5 run ine after losing three of their last four games.
Angels wake up and realize they need to win, but I will still take the +1.5 run line.
|Phillies +1.5 v. Padres
|6 h 34 m
Philadelphia vs San Diego
4:10 EDT, June 26, 2022
4% best bet on the Phillies using the +1.5 run line
Harper has a broken thumb and will be out indefinitely, which is a huge loss, but somehow, this may be the situation, that wakes up the entire roster and has everyone stepping up their game. Even without Harper in the lineup, the Phillies are a formidable offensive force. Harper is a loss, but they have plenty of depth in this lineup to get through the next 4 to 6 weeks without him and remain in playoff contention.
Betting on road teams using the +1.5 run line facing a host whose bullpen did not give an ER in two straight games and is starting a pitcher with excellent control sporting a 1.100 over his last 10 starts has earned a highly profitable 78-40 record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons. The SU record has been 58-60.
|Tigers +1.5 v. Yankees
|4 h 40 m
Detroit Tigers vs NY Yankees
11:35 AM EST, June 5, 2022
3% best bet on the Detroit Tigers on the run line and a 1.5% best bet on the Money line.
I will be discussing the handicapping concept of regression each on the Full Count Show this week as well as my 2-minute quick-hitting free pick MLV videos airing M-F on the Predictive Playbook channel. Bes uyre to tune in for more in-depth analysis of this profitable strategy.
So, home teams favored by –175 or more that have outscored their opponents by 100 or more runs in games played in the month of June are horrid ones to back with your money. They have earned a 49-30 record for 62% wins, BUT have averaged a –225.3 favorite and the result is a massive loss of $2,.115 wager just $100 per game played on these juggernaut teams. Fading these powerful teams has averaged a +205 underdog bet, making $1570 per $100 wagered for a solid 23% return-on-investment (ROI). If our favorites are lined on the –1.5 run line at =140 or more (more negative, more favored), then the run line record has been 7-8 betting against them, producing a 25% ROI averaging a +140 +1.5 run line wager on our barking underdog.
|Rockies +1.5 v. Giants
|6 h 42 m
olorado vs San Francisco
9:45 EST, August 13, 2021
4-UNIT play on the Run Line betting Colorado
Betting on road teams of at least +110 in the first game of a series and facing a hot bullpen that has posted an ERA of 2.00 or lower spanning their last five games has produced a 90-75 record, averaging a +155 dog bet and making the $100 bettor a $5100 profit over the last five seasons.
From the predictive models and machine learning applications, we learn that San Fran is just 2-12 as a home favorite of -150 and greater when the opponent has had 2 or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the last three seasons.