Green Bay vs San Francisco
6:40 PM EST, January 19, 2020
NFC Championship Game
NFL: 10-Star Bet on ‘OVER’ the posted total

Let us start with this power-query that has earned a 77-32-2 ‘OVER’ record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Play over with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and are outscoring opponents by 4 or more points-per-game and after allowing thtree points or less in the first half of their last game.

The Packers are 27-10 ‘OVER’ in road games when facing elite offensive teams averaging 6.5 yards-per-play in games played since 1991.

The Packers are 18-5 ‘OVER’ after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are projected to score 1t least 28 points and the Packers have posted a 101-13 ‘OVER’ record in games in which they allowed 28 or more points since 1991 including 10-0 ‘OVER’ in playoff games.

The 49ers are 125-29 ‘OVER’ when they have scored 28 or more points since 1991 including a perfect 5-0 ‘OVER’ in playoff games.

Tennessee vs Kansas City
AFC Championship Game
Arrowhead Stadium
2:30 PM EST, January 19, 2020
10-Star Best Bet ‘UNDER’ the Total

I will not provide the color and background of these teams as that would only be a regurgitation of the tons of content already on the web and on television. The predictive metrics are what is important in my content and let us get right to it.

Tennessee is 9-2 ’UNDER’ after allowing 14 or fewer points in their last game in games played over the last two seasons.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ‘UNDER’ in games following a 40+ point outburst and have won at least three consecutive games. Home favorites of 5.5 to 9 points on a three or more game win streak and are coming off a 40+ point game are 24-11 ‘UNDER’ since 1991 including a perfect 4-0 ‘UNDER’ in the playoffs.

For the first half the following power-query underscores the 7-Star play on the ‘UNDER” for the first half. The query has earned a 42-11 ‘UNDER’ record over the last five seasons for 79% winning bets. The requirements are to play ‘UNDER’ with any team using the first-half total that is a good offensive team averaging 23 to 27 points-per-game and are facing an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and after a win by 14 or more points.

The key projection is that the Titans will rush for 150 to 200 yards. In playoff games in which the host allowed 150 to 200 rushing yards, the ‘UNDER’ is 16-7 for 70% winners including a 12-1 ‘UNDER’ (8-16 straight-up and 6-18 ATS in case you were wondering) record when the opponent gained between 180 and 200 yards.

San Francisco vs Seattle
8:20 PM EST, December 29, 2019
10-Star Titan Bet ‘UNDER’ the posted total
 
This situational betting system has earned a 41-8 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet the ‘UNDER’ with a home team that is coming off an upset loss of at least 10 points or more and were installed as favorites in that game. If we increase the humiliating loss to 14 points the system goes to an outstanding 28-3 record good for 90% winning bets.

Here is a situational betting system that has earned a 40-10 UNDER record for 80% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and 17-4 UNDER record for 81% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play UNDER with a home team that is scoring at least 25 points per game on the season and has a defense that has allowed at least 25 points in each of their last four consecutive games.

Bucs are 6-0 UNDER in home games after averaging 400 or more yards per game over their last 3 games spanning bets made over the last three seasons.

OVER THE TOTAL IN THE SF 49ERS VS PANTHERS GAME

4:05 PM EST, OCTOBER 27, 2019

10-STAR ON THE OVER

This situational query has earned an outstanding 57-23 OVER record over the last 30 seasons for 66% winning bets. The query instructs us to bet OVER where the total is between 35 to 41 points and the team has won three or more consecutive games and is facing an opponent that has won four or more consecutive games. 

Drilling down through this dataset we learn that the OVER has gone an incredible 15-3 for 83% winning bets with a total between 35 and 41 points and the team has won four or more games in a row and is facing an opponent that has won five or more games in a row since 1990.

7-STAR ON THE UNDER  AND 7-STAR CHICAGO IN THE MNF MATCHUP BETWEEN THE HOST WASHINGTON REDSKINS AND THE VISITING CHICAGO BEARS. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Redskins will not gain more than 75 rushing yards, will be held to 100 fewer yards in total offense than what Chicago will gain and will not score more than 17 points. In past home Redskins games where they under achieved or at the most met these performance measures the UNDER has gone 11-3 for 79% winning bets and covered the total by an average of 8 points. Further, the Redskins are an imperfect 0-13-1 ATS.

This situational query has earned a perfect 10-0 UNDER record since 2015. The UNDER is 10-0 with a winless home dog of 4.5 or more points in week 3 and further down the regular season schedule and are facing an opponent that has a win percentage of at least 0.500 on the season. 

So, play each of the 7-Stars separately and then add no more than 4-Star parlay playing the Bears minus the points and the UNDER. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE OVER IN THE GREEN BAY VERSUS DENVER MATCHUP SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST. 

This situational query has earned an outstanding 36-13 OVER record over the last 10 seasons for 74% winning bets. The query instructs us to bet OVER the posted total with a home team during the first four weeks of the regular season that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread (ATS). 

This one has earned a 56-25 OVER record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. It instructs us to play OVER with a road team in the first eight weeks of the regular season that is off two or more consecutive losses. 

The machine learning summary projects that both teams will score 20 or more points, GB will gain at least 250 passing yards, and gain at least six yards-per-Play. In past games where both teams scored 20 or more points the Packers home games the OVER is 82-14 for 85% winning bets. In Denver road games and both teams scored 20 or more points the OVER has earned a 77-9 record for 90% winning bets.  

10-STAR WAGER UNDER THE TOTAL IN THE CHIEFS VS RAIDERS MATCHUP IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 4:05 PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that the Chiefs and Raiders will post a yards-per-point ratio of 13 or higher in this ga,e. That both teams will combine for less than 200 yards and that one team will pass for less than 250 yards and the other less than 300 yards. IN past NFL games where these performance measures were met or exceeded the UNDER has earned an incredible 1,271-96-11 record good for 93% winning bets since 1989. When one of the teams has been the Raiders the UNDER has earned a 43-2 UNDER record good for 95.6% winning bets. 

This situational betting system has earned a 89-42 UNDER record for 68% winning bets since 1980. Play UNDER with game featuring divisional opponents where the posted betting total line is 49 or more points and one of the teams is off a home win. This system has hit 67% win if bets over the last 10 seasons with NOT ONE losing season among them. 

10-STAR ON THE UNDER IN THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS HOUSTON TEXANS MNF GAME SET TO START AT 8:20 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary, the Saints are projected to score 24 or fewer points, allowing 200 or fewer net passing yards, and both teams will combine for at least 55 rushing plays. 

In previous games where the Saints and their opponent have met or exceeded these performance measure the UNDER has earned a 62-21-1 record for 75% inning bets since 1990. And 5-1 UNDER since the 2010 season. 

In previous games where the Saints and their opponent combined for 50 rushing attempts and held the opponent to less than 190 net passing yards the UNDER has produced a 61-30 record for 67% winning bets. 

This situational query has earned a 24-5 UNDER record for 83% winning bets over the last 35 seasons. The query instructs us to play UNDER the posted total in the first two weeks of the regular season in a matchup where both teams had winning records in the previous season and with one of the teams havng lost their last three consecutive games ATS. Rare and powerful money-making query to be sure and has occurred six times in the past 10 seasons going 5-1. 

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Saturday, January 19, 2019

1.The Play and How to Play It

A.   Play a 7-Star wager amount on the New England Patriots (313) as they travel to Kansas City (214) installed as 3.5-point underdogs in the AFC Championship game.

B.   Play a 7-Star wager UNDER the total currently priced at 56-points.

C.   Play a 5-Star Parlay using the Patriots and the UNDER.

 Projections clearly show that both teams will be successful with their ground attacjs with the Patriots gaining between 150 and 175 RY and KC gaining between 100 to 125 RY. Patriots will gain 400 to 425 total yards while KC will be less than 400 TY. Patriots will gain a minimum of 6 yards per play (YPPL). KC will average at least 5.5 yards-per-rush (YPRA).

So, the Patriots are an outstanding 8-0 against the spread (ATS) when they gain between 6 and 6.5 YPPL and 15-4 ATS when they gain 6 or more YPPL.

Over the Patriots dynasty we have seen their defense play with a scheme begging the opponent to run the ball. This is one of the building blocks that worked so well in taking out the opponents’ best player or team strength. It sows in the data as well with the Patriots overall records improving the more RY they allow. The Patriots are 48-28 ARS when they have allowed 5 or more RYPA and an even better 18-6 ATS when allowing 5.5 or more RYPA. Further, the atriots are 6-1 SU winning by an average of 11.4 points and 6-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8 points when they rush for 150 to 175 yards and the opponent rushes for 125 to 150 yards.

When the Patriots have had 10 or fewer rushing plays than passing plays in playoff games they are 13-0 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 9-4 ATS covering the spread by an average of 10 points.

When the Patriots have had the more balanced offense than the opponent in playoff games as measured by (Patriots passes-rushes) – (Opponent passes-rushes) they are 10-1 SU winning by an average of 11.2 points and 9-2 ATS for 82% covering the spread by an average of 8 points.

Last, Patriots are 6-0 SU winning the game by an average of 19.8 points and 5-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11.4 points when they outrush their opponent by a minimum of 25 yards and run 10 or more plays.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This query resulting in a 46-20 ATS mark for 70% spanning the last 38 seasons. Play against favorites after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of their last game.

Supporting the UNDER is a query that has returned a 60-26 UNDER mark for 70% over the past 10 seasons. Play Under with road teams that are off 1 or more straight OVER results with a defense allowing 18 to 23 points-per-game (PPG) and facing a defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG after Week 8. Of the 86 games that met the query parameters, 51% of them went UNDER the total by more than 7 points. It has produced a solid 8-3 record this season.

In playoff action this query has produced a 5-1 ‘UNDER’ record covering the total by an average of 11.6 points.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Sunday, January 13, 2019

OVER Philadelphia at New Orleans (307)
Philadelphia Eagles +8

Parlay Eagles +8 and OVER 52.5

Place a 7-Star wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the OVER, which is currently priced at 52.5-points. 7-Star Wager on the Philadelphia Eagles, who are priced as 8-point road dogs.

If you have access to adjusted lines consider a 3-Star amount parlayed with the Eagles +3.5 returning $180 for a winning $100 wager and OVER 56.5 returning $165 for a winning $100 wager. This parlay pays off $642.00 per $100 wager.

  The Saints had the best yards-per-point ratio in the NFL at 12.03, which simply means that they needed to gain 12 yards to get 1 point on the scoreboard. This ratio measures offensive efficiency and the lower the ratio the better the offense. In playoff games where a home favorite seeded 1 or 2 had earned a YPPT season average of 14 or less, the OVER has gone 14-5 ATS for 74%.

When this high-powered offensive team is hosting a foe that played the week before and installed as 7 to 11-point favorite, the OVER is a very nice 10-2 for 83.3% and the host just 4-8 against the spread (ATS) and 6-6 straight-up.

Saints have a much improved run defense this season, but Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS against strong units allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This DB Query has returned a 42-14 UNDER mark for 75% over the last 5 seasons. Play UNDER the posted total Play UNDER with any team against the total in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 18 to 23 PPG and after allowing 30 points or more last game.

UNDER (315)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is currently priced at 40.5 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 34-9 record for 79% since 1980. Play Under with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more total yards and is now facing an opponent after they outgained their previous opponent by 200 or more total yards.

ohn Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

UNDER KC-OAK (303)

OAKLAND (4 - 11) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 4)

Week 17 Sunday, 12/30/2018 4:25 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 52.5 points.

SIM Projections and Results

Raiders are projected to rush for 100 to 125 yards and the Chiefs will rush for 125 to 150 yards. In past games, where the Raiders rushed for that amount, the under is 12-5 for 71% and when the Chiefs have allowed an opponent to rush for an average of 4.0 or less the UNDER is 29-17 for 63%

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 88-42 record for 68% since 1980. Play UNDER the posted total with any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 facing division opponents and is off a home win.

Also, teams that are installed as 7 or more point favorites and coming off a road game installed as a favorite and had 2 or more turnovers in that game and scored at least 7 points are 23-0 UNDER since 2015 and cover the UNDER bet by an average of 10.6 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

New Orleans Saints (331)

New Orleans (11 - 2) at Carolina (6 - 7)

Week 15 Monday, 12/17/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Saints. who are installed as 6-point road favorites. Also, a 7-Star graded play UNDER the posted total. We recommend a maximum bet of no more than a 2-Star parlay amount using the Saints wager on the line and the UNDER.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Saints will gain 8.5 or more yards per pass attempt, will force Carolina into a minimum of 2 turnovers, will gain a minimum of 375 total yards. Saints are 22-5 SU winning by an average of 14.7 points for 82% and 42-3 ATS covering the number by an average of 11.8 points for 89% when they have passed for at least 8.5 YPPA and forced the opponent into 2 turnovers. Adding in the Divisional showdown, the Saints are a near-perfect 7-1 ATS for 88%. When they have defeated the opponent in the previous meeting, they are an even better 13-1 ATS covering by an average of 12.5 points.

Supporting the play on the UNDER is the fact that the Saints are 12-1 UNDER and covering the total by an average of 8 points when on the road against a divisional foe with the week after a win in which they came back from a deficit

This database situational query has returned a profitable 61-27 UNDER record for 69% over the past five seasons. The query is to play under the posted total with home teams after a 2 game road trip and with the game occurring in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

UNDER (263-264)

SEATTLE (5 - 5) at CAROLINA (6 - 4)

Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 46.5-points.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Seattle has not forced a single turnover in three straight games and previous teams in this situation have played UNDER in 28 of 46 games. Both teams are projected to have fewer than 200 passing yards and to execute no more than 120 plays from scrimmage. In this pair of situations the UNDER is 1070-314-22 for 77.3% since 1980 and 50-14 for 78.1% since the start of the 2016 season.

The following database query has produced a 55-24 mark good for 70% over the past 10 seasons. Play Under with road teams against the total (SEATTLE) in the second half of the season that are off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ and is an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG.

This DB query plays on the ‘UNDER’ in the month of November with teams that are off a close road loss of 3 points or less and has produced a 85-46 record for 65% winners since 1980.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
UNDER Atlanta-Washington


SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 47.5-points.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for both teams combined to not gain more than 685 total yards. In past home games that the Redskins have been involved with and met this projection, the UNDER has gone an impressive 104-35-1 for 75% and going under the posted total by an average of 5.8 PPG

Here is a database situation query that has produced a 40-15 ‘UNDER’ record good for 73% winners spanning the last 5 seasons.  Play Under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and is an excellent passing team gaining a minimum of 7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing team gaining between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA and after gaining 8 or more passing yards-per-attempt last game.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1
The Play and the Matchup
Arizona Cardinals (251)
Arizona (1 - 4) at Minnesota (2 - 2 - 1)   
Week 6 Sunday, 10/14/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale. Place a 7-star wager on the Arizona Cardinals, which the market has them priced as 10-point road dogs.

We also have a 7-Star graded play on the ‘OVER’. So, play each as 7-Star plays and then consider adding a 3-Star reverse action parlay using the total and the line. Also, a 1-Star amount using the Money Line and the total.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Cardinals to play much better defense today and will hold the Vikings to less than 21 points and less than 100 rushing yards. When the Cardinals have achieved both performance measures, they have gone 39-15 SU and 47-6-1 ATS for 88.7% winners and when installed as road dogs they improve to 22-13 SU and a remarkable 32-2-1 ATS.
    
The following DB situational query has produced a solid record of 33-9 ATS for 79% winners and 10-2-1 ATS for 83% since 2008 and covering by an average of 5.77 PPG. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a terrible offense averaging 260 or less total yards-per-game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
OVER PHL-TENN (265-266)
PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) 
Week 4 Sunday, 9/30/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7-stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Place a 7-star wager on the OVER, which the market has priced at 41-points.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Titans to gain at least 125 rushing yards and that the Eagles and Titans will combine for at least 9 red zone scoring opportunities. In past Eagles games when they have met these KPI, the OVER is a near-perfect 15-1. The Titans record in this situation is 9-2 OVER.

DB Situational Query
Play Over with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points that is a slow starting offensive team scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game. 25-4 over the last 10 seasons for 86.2%, +2060 per $100 wagered.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
UNDER Bengals-Ravens (101-102)
BALTIMORE (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0)  
Week 2 Thursday, 9/13/2018 8:20 PM
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
7 stars on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.

Place a 7-star wager on the UNDER in the Bengals-Ravens game, which is currently priced at 45 points.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Ravens to average 5.2 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt. IN past road games where the Ravens have been favored by no more than 4.5 points, the UNDER is an incredible 15-1 for 94% winners. The Ravens pass game was significantly below average in their blowout win over Buffalo. To not execute well against that beleaguered group is a head scratcher and although the Bengals are not an elite defensive unit, they are far superior and will execute schemes far better. The Ravens had 27 receptions, but few were vertical routes, but did average 10 yards-per-reception. The poor performance measure here is that they gained just 3.9 yards after the catch.
     The Bengals had 21 receptions on 27 targets for 77.8 reception rate and averaged 11.3 yards-per-reception. They had just two drops and averaged a very good 6.5 yards after the catch. Green had two fumbles last week and he will certainly be more aware of ball positioning after the catch. When targeted Green had a QBR rating of 152 to lead the team and we fully expect more of the same tonight, without the fumbles. So, Bengals and Ravens will be looking to control the clock and grind out scoring drives that will result in more FGM then TD.

Utilizing the Two Subsets of AI (Machine and Deep Learning)
If you are new to our service, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning  and deep learning processes - some of which have been around since the 1950's, such as Bayesian probability networks. Also, we have deployed combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant advances in predictive power and measurable increases in total rate of returns in all sports.
  
The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms applied to the NFL have enhanced our NFL performance with a 46-24 ATS 65.7% record for the 2017 NFL season.
NBA 10-Star plays 12-5 ATS for 71%.
NCAAB 10-Star plays 14-5 ATS for 73%


Active Sports
MLB 10-Star plays 11-6 or $5,560.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager.
MLB 2018 7-Star 72-71 and 5.55 units x $700 = $3,885
MLB 2018 5-Star 14-11 and 5.61 units x $500 = $2,805
MLB Overall 2018 $12,250.00

CFL 4-2 10-Star and $1,800

NFLX 7-Star plays 6-3 ATS $1,890
NFLX 10-Stars 3-0 ATS $3,000
NCAAF 5-Star plays 2-1 $450.00
NCAAF 7-Star plays 4-3 ATS $490
NCAAF 10-Star 1-1 ATS $1,000.00
NFL 5-Stars 0-2 ATS $-1,100
NFL 7-Stars 1-2 ATS $-$840
NFL 10-Stars 0-1 ATS $-1,100

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: ‘OVER’ Philadelphia-Minnesota

The Matchup: MINNESOTA (14 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (14 - 3)

Start Time: Week 20 Sunday, 1/21/2018 6:40 PM

SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on  the ‘OVER’ using the line. The current toal is lined at 38 ½ and there will be alternate lines for the Championship games. You will see a line for ‘over’ 46 ½ and paying back +250. So, you can consider adding an optional 2 star amount on this added opportunity.

We also have a 5 star play on the Eagles. So, wager a 5 star on the Eagles and then consider adding an optional reverse action parlay with the Eagles using the MONEY LINE and the ‘OVER’.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

Mike Zimmer has developed one of the best defenses in recent years in Minnesota. Specifically, no team since 2000 has been more stingy on third-down conversions than the 2018 Vikings. They have allowed only 25.2% conversion of opponent third down situations and is better than the great defenses of the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2013 Seahawks, and 2015 Broncos.

The scheme is the LB defend the sticks and in longer than 10 yards situations, the safeties will be added to that scheme. This will allow for Foles to take some big chances down the field and over the top of the ‘sticks’ defense that will be in man coverage.

    We also believe the Eagles will do a great job in minimizing the third-and-long situations by suing a pounding ground attack mix of Ajai and Blounte. This too will allow Foles to have far easier third and short situations to convert - and he may convert with his legs.

    In the Falcons game, Foles saw safety Rodney McCloud about 20 yards of the line of scrimmage and still gaining depth in a third-and-11 situation. In a similar third-and-11 situation against the Panthers, Andrew Sendejo is 15 yards of the LOS and creeping backwards mostly and is nearly flat footed NOT looking to get depth. On almost every single third-and-long this season, you’ll see Minnesota’s safeties planted at or just behind the first down markers. Whether it’s one safety in a single-high coverage or both in a split-safety look, they know precisely where the first down markers are at. This is especially evident when they run cover-4 or their variation of 2-man, which is not really a cover-2, but rather man coverage with two robbers.

    The Vikings dialed up quarters coverage on 15 third-and-longs this year (third-most in NFL) and 2-man coverage 14 times (fifth-most in NFL).

    Foles may not be Wentz and have his mobility to extend plays when pressured, but he does have a rifle and can be extremely accurate in tight windows. The aforementioned Vikings schemes do allow for a QB, like Foles, to hit receivers in the open areas of these schemes. There may not be many yards after the catch, but it will move the chains.

The Eagles also execute the most unique rushing attack in the NFL. The Steelers goal is to punch you in the mouth with power, the Rams want to run you ragged from sideline to sideline, but the Eagles will want to keep you off balance and hammer you and then exhaust you. Time of possessions is projected to be heavily in favor of the Eagles and is a critical metric for them to get the win tonight.

Game Intelligence Analytics

Play on home teams (PHILADELPHIA).

Off a upset win as an underdog.

In a game involving two top-level teams winning at least 75% of their games.

26-8 since 1983 for 76.5% and has made $1720 per $100 wager.

SIM Matching Game Situations

Philadelphia is :

8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they rush for 100 to 125 yards over the last 2 seasons.

43-11 ATS for 80% winners when rushing for more than 125 yards and having more than 35 minutes TOP.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several analytical tools using machine learning techniques - some of which have been around since the 1950's. Also, have deployed AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017 and also 12-3 ATS  for 80% winners in College Hoops and on a 5-2 ATS run in the NBA.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: OVER

The Matchup: ATLANTA (11 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (13 - 3)

Start Time: Week 19 Saturday, 1/13/2018 4:35 PM

SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on the ‘OVER’ using the line.

There will be alternate lines for this game along with a ton of prop bets. We suggest playing the alternate total line for the ‘over’ which is expected to be at 48 ½  and returning +230 for every $100 wager. So, consider making a 5 star play over using the total line and then add a 2 star play using the alternate total line.

Game Intelligence Analytics

Play Over with any team against the total (ATLANTA).

After going under the total by more than 7 points in three consecutive games.

And in a conference matchup.

38-14 over the last 10 seasons for 73.1% and making $2,260.

SIM Matching Game Situations

Atlanta

18-1 OVER (+16.9 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

55-20 when passing for 300 or more yards.

23-9 when playing on the road.

Philadelphia

8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points this season.

9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons.

43-8 when allowing 300 or more passing yards.

16-5 in home games.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017.

So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: UNDER RAMS-Falcons (103 and 104)

The Matchup: ATLANTA (10 - 6) at LA RAMS (11 - 5)

Start Time: Week 18 Saturday, 1/6/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on the ‘UNDER’ using the line.

Game Intelligence Analytics

Atlanta

9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Quinn is Quinn is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off 4 or more consecutive unders as the coach of Atlanta.

Rams

SIM Matching Game Situations

Atlanta

7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons.

10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons.

Rams

11-5 UNDER when gaining 1 or more rushing yards per attempt than opponent and having between 33 and 36 minutes in TOP.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 46-24 ATS record in 2017.

So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018. The annual will cost you just $5.47 per day and average about $1.37 per play.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: UNDER (305 and 306)

The Matchup: BUFFALO (8 - 7) at MIAMI (6 - 9)

Start Time: Week 17 Sunday, 12/31/2017 4:25 PM

SIM grading: 7 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy: Place a 7 star wager on the ‘UNDER’ using the total. The lie is currently 42 points and the SIm projects a high probability that 35 or fewer points will be scored.

Game Intelligence Analytics

Dolphins have not scored points against weak defenses that have allowed an average of 350 yards per game. In fact, they are 44-23 ‘under’ for 65.7% winners   after week 8 of each season since 1992. And since 2012, the ‘under’ has won the money 20 out of 29 games for 69% winners.

Also:

Play Under with Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BUFFALO).

After having won 2 out of their last 3 games in December games.

40-15 over the last 10 seasons for 72.7% winners and has made $2,350.00 per $100 wager.

SIM Matching Game Situations

Buffalo is 37-13 UNDER (+22.7 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points.

Buffalo is 23-10 UNDER (+12.0 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 net passing yards per attempt.

Buffalo is 70-36 UNDER (+30.4 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points.

Miami is 80-33 UNDER (+43.7 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points.

Miami is 52-32 UNDER (+16.8 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 42-24 ATS record in 2017.

So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018. The annual will cost you just $5.47 per day and average about $1.37 per play.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: ‘OVER’ Pittsburgh - Houston (129 and 130)

The Matchup: PITTSBURGH (11 - 3) at HOUSTON (4 - 10)

Start Time: Week 16 Monday, 12/25/2017 4:30 PM

SIM grading: 10 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.

Recommended Strategy: Place a 10 star wager on the ‘OVER’ using the line.

Many books now offer alternative lines and totals on both NCAA and NFL games. If you have access to that alternative line, you may want to consider a combination bet placing a 7 star play on the ‘over’ (currently lined at 45) and add a 3 star amount to the alternative total line, which you will see at 52 ½ and about +220 return.

Game Intelligence Analytics

The expectations for this game is that it will be a barn burner with both offenses passing for more than 300 net passing yards. In past games, where both teams have exceeded 300 net passing yards, the over is a sparkling 406-56-2 for an amazing 88% winners. In games where Houston was one of those teams, they have recorded a 9-2 over record good for 82% winners. When Pittsburgh has been one of the teams, they have recorded a 11-3 over record good for 79$% winners.

And in games where both teams exceed 300 net passing yards and the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, the OVER has gone 101-16 for 86% winners. Since you asked, over the past three seasons, the total is an amazing 22-2 ‘over’ for 92% winners and the average cover has been a whopping 12.5 points.

SIM Matching Game Situations

Houston is a solid 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games.

Pittsburgh is 50-18 OVER (+30.2 Units) when they gain 300 or more net passing yards.

Pittsburgh is 25-9 OVER (+15.1 Units) when their defense allows 300 or more net passing yard.

Houston is 21-9 OVER (+11.1 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards.

Houston is 42-13 OVER (+27.7 Units) when they allow 400 or more total yards.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NCAAF for the bowl games and have no doubt helped propel

So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving ANNUAL sports subscription and never miss a play throughout 2018.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: ‘UNDER’
The Matchup: DENVER (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 1)

Start Time: Week 9 Sunday, 11/5/2017 1:00 PM

SIM grading: 7 stars

Recommended Strategy: play a 7 star amount ‘UNDER’ the posted total.

Round Table Discussion Points

A supporting factor to this play is the fact that 65% of the wagers have been playing ‘OVER’ while the line has dropped from an opening of 44 points to a current 41 points. We expect that 34 or fewer points will be scored.

Zack Ertz is not going to active and this is a big loss for the Eagles and their QB Carson Wentz. Ertz ranks 8th in the NFL with 43 catches and ranks second to Travis Kelce (44 catches) for TE. Alshon Jeffery is second on the Eagles and 53rd in the NFL with just 28 catches. This will force the game plan to go to more running plays, especially with new RB Ajayi in town from the recent trade with Miami. However, Denver has a very good defense and ranks best in 3rd down defense in the NFL.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics

The following database system query has gone 41-17 ‘under’ hitting 71% winners and has made $2,230 wagering $100 per game since 2007.

Play ‘UNDER’ with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PHILADELPHIA).

After 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.

After the first month of the season.

In addition, teams that are favored by at least 7 points, were favored in their last game, playing on grass, non-divisional opponent, and facing an opponent that averages better than 3.75 yards-per-rush have gone 27-1 ‘under’ since 2012. That’s a tidy 96.4% winners.

The following game situations match the SIM projections for the expected outcome of this game.

Denver is a near-perfect  9-1 ‘UNDER’ (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Denver is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.

Methodologies and Subscriptions

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 21-6 ATS record in 2017. So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving sports subscription and never miss a play.

The Play and How to Play it:

The Play: UNDER Patriots-Chargers
The Matchup: Patriots hosting the Chargers

Start Time: 1:00 PM ET

SIM grading: 7 stars out of 10 maximum

Recommended Strategy: Wager a 7 star amount on the ‘under’.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following database query has gone 100-55 ‘UNDER’ hitting 65% winners and has made $3,950 wagering $100 per play since 1983.

Play ‘Under’ the posted total with road teams.

Where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS).

After 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

Also, what to mention that the Chargers are 13-6 ‘under’ 71% winners in a non-division game coming off a home game where their previous opponent total of 3rd down conversions was less than 31% of the opponents total first downs. This ratio has been a very important metric and does reflect how a defense is performing on critical game situations.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Chargers are 46-25 UNDER (+18.5 Units) when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to our service and wager methodologies, we have developed several methods of machine learning, AI analytics, and combinatorial algorithms that have provided significant value and have augmented total rate of returns in all sports. The first set of Combinatorial Algorithms  has been applied to the NFL and have no doubt helped propel our NFL plays to an amazing 21-6 ATS record in 2017. So, do yourself a big favor and consider getting on board with a cost saving sports subscription and never miss a play.

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play ‘UNDER’ in the MNF game between the Giants and the Lions set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game.

We are releasing this play late to give you the best intelligence on the status of ODB. He is probable to play and we expect the ‘total’ to move a point higher in the next few hours leading up to game time. We recommend waiting to about 30 minutes before game time and placing your wager then. If the line does move, then there will be a wave of under best in that last 30 minutes as the ‘pro’ bettors square up positions.

The following system has gone 23-5 ‘under’ hitting 82% winners and has made 17.5 units/unit wagered since 1983.

Play ‘under’ with any team against the total.

In the first 2 weeks of the year.

After closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses.

And in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Giants are 25-45 ATS ‘Under’ since 1992 when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play.

Giants are 7-1 ‘under’ when they allow an opponent to gain fewer than 75 rushing yards.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘UNDER’

The Play and how to Play it:

7* graded play ‘OVER’ in the Philadelphia Eagles - KC Chiefs matchup set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that will win this game.

Round Table Discussion Points

Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs come off a big win in New England while the Eagles beat the Redskins in the opener. The Chiefs lost all pro safety Eric Berry last week to injury and the Eagles should be

able to move the ball through the air. The Eagles also lost cornerback Ronald Darby to an already weak secondary. Both teams bring the ability to make big plays with their special teams. This game sets up nicely for both offenses and we look for some points to be put up on the scoreboard  in Kansas City, Sunday afternoon.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

Supporting the passing attacks in this matchup are the strong running games. The chiefs gained 185 rushing yards in their upset win over the Patriots in Week 1. We expect them to gain 150 more rushing yards in this matchup today. The following data shows the results of games played by the Chiefs after gaining 150 or more rushing yards and then gaining 150 or more in the next game. Since 1980, the Chiefs are 31-7 SU and 29-8-1 ATS and 23-14 ‘over’ in this rushing situation. Since Andy Ried arrived in KC at the start of the 2011 season, the Chiefs have gone 5-2 ‘over’ and have cashed the last four ‘over’ tickets.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’ in this matchup.

The play and how to Play it:

7* graded play on ‘OVER’ the posted total in the MNF matchup between the Chargers and the Broncos set to start at 10:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 44 points will be scored.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 36-12 hitting 75% winners and has made 22.8 units/unit wagered since 2007.

Play ‘over’ with any team.

Where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points.

And is a solid offensive team from last season scoring 24 or more points/game.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Denver is 25-12 OVER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games when they rush for 75 to 100 yards.

Denver is 175-50 ‘over’ when scoring 24 or more points.  

Denver is 105-29 ‘over’ in home games when scoring 24 or more points.

Chargers are 91-24 ‘over’ when scoring 21 or more points in away gamnes.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’.

25* graded play ‘UNDER” Carolina (317) – Tampa Bay (318) in NFL action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-17 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 73% winners since 1983. Play ‘Under’ with  home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games and with the game occurring the second half of the season. 

Here is a second system that has gone 39-14 ‘under’ for 74% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total (CAROLINA) off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Tampa Bay is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points

Tampa Bay has had a great season under first year coach Dirk Koetter, but they will fall short of the playoffs. They are technically still in contention, but need SEVEN game outcomes to go their way including the 49ers defeating the Seahawks. However, this is a team that believes in their HC and has played very well recently. They have won five straight until B2B losses at Dallas and at New Orleans. Those are not the type of losses, where the Bucs simply did not play well – it was more that the opponent did more to win the game.

The Bucs defense has done well in many different styles of games. They rank 2nd in the NFL allowing opponent to convert on just 35% of third down conversions. Carolina ranks 11th in the same category and as a result we believe this will be a game of field position leading to below average scoring opportunities. Take the ‘UNDER’.

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ the posted total in the Pittsburgh-Baltimore (127-128) showdown set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-34 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) versus division opponents, off a win against a division rival. 

Here is a second system that has gone 39-12 ‘under’ for 76% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) revenging a loss against opponent, off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:

·       Baltimore is a near-perfect 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons.

·       Pittsburgh is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 2 seasons.

·       Pittsburgh is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

·       7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points

Normally, our analysis centers on the most common personnel alignment (single back, 3 WR, slot receiver and/or TE), but in this matchup keep your eyes peeled to Baltimore’s fullback Kyle Juszczyk. Baltimore’s use of the FB is unique in this modern-era of spread offenses and it certainly works for them. Without the lead FB blocker, Baltimore averages 3.9 YPR, which ranks 24th in the league in all formations, but with the FB 5.0 YPR. However, Pittsburgh is a divisional rival, who already knows Baltimore’s tendencies better than anyone in the league. Pittsburgh defense ranks third allowing 89.2 rushing yards per game. We strongly believe that Pittsburgh will force Baltimore into third-and-long situations, which all but eliminates the power FB scheme. And if you haven’t figured already, the battle of the power games and control of the LOS will take large chunks of time off the clock leading to a lower scoring game. Take the Steelers.

25* graded play on the UNDER in the Dallas-Minnesota Thursday NFL game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the total will be under 41 points in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-32 over the last 5 seasons good for 68.3% winners and made a nice 33.8 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Another proven system supports this play posting a 98-50 since 1983 good for 66.2% winners and made a great 43 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is 17-4 Under (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 6-0 Under (+6.0 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons; 4-0 under in their last 4 games in December; 8-2 under in their last 10 road games. Minnesota is 13-4 Under (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 Under (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 Under (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons; 6-1 under in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game; 9-2 Under in their last 11 games following a ATS loss; 20-7 Under in their last 27 vs. NFC.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Cowboys are playing their third game in 12 days. Both teams have strong defenses allowing less than 20 PPG to opponents and both love to play the time of possession/run the ball offense type which limits each others ability to score a lot in this game. Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, 2 guards, and Sam Bradford are listed as probable and will be not be as effective while playing hurt. That's a mostly injured offense that has struggled to post 19.8 PPG this season. Take the UNDER.

25* graded play on the UNDER in Philadelphia-Green Bay action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the total score will be less than 45 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-8 over the last 10 seasons good for 80.5% winners and made 24.2 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 7 of 8 games in this series have gone under the total since 1992. McCarthy is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games as the coach of the Packers. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles play better at home as they are undefeated there. Their defense has only allowed an average of 9.5 points against at home. Wentz and the Eagles will struggle to score with their starting running back injured and virtually only one-two pass catchers on the team. Take the Under.

50* graded play on the OVER in Carolina-Oakland action set to start at 4:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that  these teams will score over 51 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 since 1983 good for 85.7% winners. Play Over - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after playing on Monday night football against opponent after playing a Thursday game. 

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Carolina is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons; 6-1 over last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record; 11-3 over last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season; 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons; 4-0 iover last 4 games overall; 36-14-2 over last 52 games following a ATS win; 12-4-2 over last 18 games in Week 12; 18-5-3 over last 26 games in November.

Fundamental Discussion Points Carolina's defense took a major hit in last week's victory as linebacker Luke Kuechly entered the league's concussion protocol while cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and defensive end Mario Addison (foot) also exited with injuries. Carr has been outstanding in his last three meetings with teams from the NFC South, throwing for 1,131 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 111.6 rating. Oakland gives up 28 points per game at home and Carolina gives up 30 points on the road. Take the OVER.

25* graded play on the OVER in Tennessee-Green Bay action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go OVER 51 points scored.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Green Bay is 41-18 OVER (+21.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game since 1992; 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) in road games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 23-9 OVER (+13.1 Units) in road games off a home loss since 1992. Tennessee is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season; 6-0 over in Titans last 6 games overall; 9-1-1 over in Titans last 11 games on grass; 6-1-1 over in Titans last 8 home games. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Green Bay Packers are springing holes in their defense as they dropped three of the past four while allowing at least 30 points in each of the losses. Clay Matthews (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and could sit out his third straight game. Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Rodgers has 10 TD passes and one interception in his last three contests. Take the OVER.

50* graded play ‘OVER’ Jacksonville-Houston in AFC action et to start 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 50 points will be scored in this game. I also have a 25* graded play on Jacksonville and this opens up the rare opportunity to combine the ‘over’ and JAX into a reverse parlay. 

A reverse bet is essentially just two ‘if’ bets, so it makes sense that we start with looking at what an ‘if’ bet is. An ‘if’ bet is a bet on two or more teams - like a parlay is. The difference between a parlay and an ‘if’ bet, though, is that you have to win all of your games in a parlay or you lose your entire bet, while in an ‘if’ bet you can get some money back if you win just once. So let’s define the outcomes for our game today.

We have already placed a $500 reverse parlay bet with JAX and the ‘OVER’. So, if JAX wins ATS and the ‘OVER’ loses we lose $600 factoring in 20% vig. Many books are now going to a 10% vig to encourage more parlays of this type. Next scenario is that the ‘OVER’ wins and JAX does not cover ATS. That too loses $600. If both JAX and the ‘OVER” lose then our worst case scenario is realized with a $1200 loss. If both the ‘OVER’ and JAX win, then the payout is 4:1 and $2,000 is realized. Under a normal parlay, the payout is 13:5, so if both plays win, a gain of $1300 is realized and if either one of the parts of the parlay lose, then a loss of $550 or $600 is realized dependent on the vig percentage.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 mark good for 71.4% winners since 2010. Play ‘Over’ with any team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) slow starting offensive team scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Houston is not a good team ranking 30th in scoring offense, 30th in yards-per-game, and 32nd in points-per-play. They score just 1.5 TD-per-game ranking dead last at 32nd by a large margin. JAX defense is a solid unit despite playing far too many downs due to the offense struggles and inconsistencies. The defense ranks 6th allowing 5.0 Yards-per-play and 5th in red zone scoring opponent percentage. Houston ranks 32nd in RZ scoring at just 38% of all possessions. Think about that for a minute. That stat means that Houston can’t even execute a FG success in most situations and TD % is pathetic. JAX offense ranks 16th in RZ scoring at 56% of all possessions. JX QB Bortles has done a solid job with the limited talent he is working with and the lack of consistency the skill players have demonstrated. JAX ranks 14th gaining 256 passing yards per game and third in passing attempts, which reflects playing from behind in the majority of their games.  Houston run defense is horrid ranking 28th allowing 126 per game. T.J. Yeldon may have a break-out game today and this too would open up play action, which is where Bortles is at his best. So, I am looking for a 31-17 or 35-21 type game.

25* graded play ‘OVER’ Denver-Oakland in AFC West action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that more than 49 points will be scored in this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 109-55 over the last 10 seasons good for 66.5% winners and made a nice 48.5 units/unit wagered. Play Over - Any team against the total (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 117-76 OVER (+33.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. Del Rio is 30-10 OVER (+19.0 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992. Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games in Week 9. Over is 10-4 in Broncos last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 45-21-2 in Broncos last 68 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games in Week 9. Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games overall. Over is 12-3 in Raiders last 15 games following a straight up win. Over is 17-6-3 in Raiders last 26 games in November. Over is 14-6-1 in Raiders last 21 vs. AFC. Over is 34-15-2 in Raiders last 51 games following a ATS win. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Carr leads the AFC with 17 touchdown passes while Cooper had 12 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown last week to boost his team-leading total to 52 receptions while Crabtree hauled in his NFL high-tying sixth touchdown catch. Defense has been a nightmare for the Raiders, who are ranked 31st in the league, surrendering a total of 410.4 total yards while being equally generous against the run and pass. If Bradley Roby can get another pick-6 that will also add to the total. Combining these two teams' points/game averages, they will total over 51 points. Take the OVER.

25* graded play ‘UNDER’ NY Giants-Eagles in a huge NFC East game set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 81-43 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.3% winners and made 33.7 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - versus division opponents, off a division game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 vs. NFC. Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games overall. Under is 14-6 in Giants last 20 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Philly and New York are ranked FOURTH and TENTH respectively in fewest points allowed per game. Just looking at their average per game defense stats this game would total 36.8 points. The Giants rank a lowly 26th in offensive points per game, so if we combine both offenses' points stats they should score about 44.6 in total. These two teams are built on defense, so I don't see why they wouldn't lean more towards a 37 point total than a 45 point total. Philly will stab themselves in the foot ranking 30th in both penalties per play and per game nearing almost 9 penalties a game. Despite those great numbers they have, they get in their own way. Take the UNDER.

25* graded play on Minnesota Vikings as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles in NFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 11 or more points.

How to best this game I also have a 25* play on the UNDER of this game where the SIM Algorithm projects that fewer than 35 points will be scored in this game. Given the strength of both plays consider adding a 5* reverse parlay wager that pays 4:1.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-27 mark good for 70% winners since 2005. Play on any team (MINNESOTA) off 1 or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG). Here is a second system supporting the ‘UNDER’ play and has gone 60-26 ‘under’ for 70% winners since 2010. Play ‘under’ with home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.

The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Vikes are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons.; Eagles are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons. Vikes are a near-perfect 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they allow 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Eagles come into this game losing two in a row after a hot start. Losing right tackle Lane Johnson really had a big effect on the offensive game plan last week for the Eagle Offense. Keeping tight ends in to block and using Running backs to chip will not help the Eagle offense as they now go against the NFL's best defense. The Vikings come into this game suffocating offenses and are also plus 11 in turnovers on the season. After a good start the Eagles Defense looked a lot like last years’ defense the last two weeks. Sam Bradford returns to Philadelphia playing well for the Vikings completing 70% of his passes for 247 yards per game, but more importantly has not had any interceptions this year while throwing for 6 Touchdowns. Minnesota has been a real money maker the last two years and come into this one covering the first 5 weeks this year and we look for the Vikings to make it 6 straight wins.

50* graded play on the UNDER on Cincinnati versus New England in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER 44 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 103-54 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.6% winners and made a big 43.6 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincinnati is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing under 90 rushing yards/game since 1992; 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging more than 375 yards/game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 26-9 UNDER (+16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite since 1992. Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 road games. Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points With both teams averaging around 20 points per game and the defenses giving up 22 and 14 points per game, we feel the under is the play in this one. The Bengals running game has struggled this year and the Patriots are not much better when they line up and come at you. Both teams have good pass defenses and the defenses are well coached. Bengals road games have been covering at a 66% rate lately and we feel this total is a little inflated with Tom Brady returning and coming off a big game against the Cleveland Browns last week. We feel it will be a little tougher to move the ball this week and the kickers will get a lot of action. Take the Under.

25* graded play on the UNDER in Denver at San Diego action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this total score will be UNDER 42 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 over the last 10 seasons good for 82.1% winners and made 24.3 units/unit wagered. Play Under any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season.  Another proven system supports this play posting a 32-10 over the last 5 season good for 76.2% winners and made 21 units/unit wagered. Play Under home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, with a losing record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Diego is 25-11 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992; 33-17 UNDER (+14.3 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992; 46-21 UNDER (+22.9 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992; 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game since 1992; 26-8 UNDER (+17.2 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) in home games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Diego.

Fundamental Discussion Points Offenses in Thursday games played on the short week since the start of the 2012 season have averaged only 3.89 TDs per game compared to the regular games average of 4.57 TDs per game. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense, San Diego. Melvin Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6. We cannot forget that Denver's defense are still man-eating monsters. Take the UNDER in the total.

25* graded play on the UNDER in the Falcons-Saints game, action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that this game will go UNDER the total.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-40 over the last 5 seasons good for 66.7% winners and made 36 units/unit wagered. Play Under - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Atlanta is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) when they rush for 75 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons; 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Quinn is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in all games as the coach of Atlanta. Under is 5-0-1 in Falcons last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South. Under is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-1-1 in Falcons last 8 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-1-1 in Falcons last 7 road games. Under is 13-3 in Falcons last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a straight up win. Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points This line already reflects far and away too many points being scored. Julio Jones is listed as probable in this game. These are divisional opponents, which doesn't make for a good Over play. They had great offenses and awful defenses last year as well, but in their last meeting the total was 37 points. Take the UNDER.

35* graded play ‘OVER’ Chargers/Raiders in Christmas Eve NFL action set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that More than 50 points will be scored in this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. Since this is a total play, you may be able to add am adjusted total wager to the line. I am seeing an adjusted total of  54 +205 for the adjusted total. There is also an adjust line lower at 40, but you need to lay -250 to get that line. In my opinion and based on 22 years experience NEVER us a high vig line or ML. It is far better to take advantage of my releases and then play for the bigger return using the ‘dog’ lines to your advantage. For this play consider making a 30* play using the total and then add a 5* play using the adjust total line of 54 +205. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-13 mark good for 72% winners since 2005. Play ‘OVER’  with road teams against the total (SAN DIEGO) and is a good passing team gaining between 6.7 and 7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing team gaining between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Chargers are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Take the ‘OVER’

50* graded play 'UNDER' the posted total int he Buffalo/NY Jets game set to start at 8:25 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that fewer than 40 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-26 'under' mark good for 71% winners since 2010. Play 'Under' with any team against the total (NY JETS) after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo is a solid 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt;  27-12 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in road games when they gain 300 to 350 total yards; 36-20 UNDER (+14.0 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards. Buffalo is also  6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that the Jets are 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) vs. mistake prone teams 60+ penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. On the fundamental front, I see both defenses dominating. Jets have OL problems and Chris Ivory has gained just 1.5 yards per rush over the last three weeks. Buffalo ranks 10th in the NFL allowing 3.9 YPR and will force Fitzpatrick to move the chains. This is where I think the real advantage is for the 'under'. Buffalo does not blitz very often and there will not be any reason to do that in third and long situations tonight either. Buffalo can defense the first down stripe by playing nickel defense in those third situations and force Jets punts. on the flip side, Buffalo has a decent ground attack, but the Jets have an even better run defense. so, with both teams not able to establish the run will make it even more difficult to setup and complete vertical routes. Take the 'UNDER'

35* graded play 'UNDER' Indianapolis/NY Jets in Monday Night Football action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that fewer than 45 points will be scored in this game. The Colts were shocked in Buffalo last week and know the history of teams that start out 0-2 to the season and greatly diminish their playoff chances. In past situations like this one, the Colts, as do many home favorites (teams that know they are the superior team) put together an aggressive game plan, but one that minimizes errors and turnovers. Luck is an elite QB that can light up a scoreboard, but that is not the goal tonight. If you are interested in a parlay for tonight, I would play the 'UNDER" and Colts minus the points for no more than a 10* amount. I also like using the 'reverse parlay' in these somewhat rare situations where I consider using a parlay. Always remember, teasers and parlays are essentially a major revenue stream for the books and a public betting trap that will NOT work out over the course of a season. As an example, the 3-team 10-point teaser is a financial life threatening proposition that can lead to very poor results over the course of a season. It is negative enough we pay a vig for the opportunity to place a wager with a book in Vegas, so don't be tempted ever to put yourself in situations with greater vigs and lower probabilities. I have the Jets graded as the best Week1 offensive performance, but this was based on a game that was largely out of hand in the second half. What I really liked was that their run defense was exceptional and I expect them to dominate the LOS tonight. Colts defense graded poor;ly against the run, but again, the best NFL teams prepare for the next opponent and make the necessary adjustments to play to full potential. I see this game being played between the 20's and with more FG made than TD scored. Take the 'UNDER'.

50* graded play 'UNDER' when the New England Patriots as host Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game set to start at 6:40 PM ET. I also like the Patriots as a 25* play and would suggest making a 10+ parlay using the Patriots and the 'under'. I would have released this Thursday had it not been for the uncertain weather conditions in Foxborough and the Boston area. Weather can change quickly in this are, especially this time of year. So, rain will be in the forecast and could be extremely heavy drenching rain with winds. I had this play graded as a 50* play prior to the weather forecast and I do feel confident that the weather will support the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 44 points will scored and the Patriots will win the game by 9 or more points. In 16 games where Andrew Luck has been installed as a road dog, his offensive production has led to just 19.3 PPG and his defense as allowed 30 PPG. He is 6-10 ATS as a road under dog in his career. Further, the Colts are 5-2 'under' in seven games when facing teams with win percentages between 71 and 81% in the Luck era; 22-13 'under' when facing defenses allowing 5.7 to 7.7 yards per attempt. Patriots defense will show Luck new looks pre-snap that can either fully disguise the post-snap defense or go with what is shown. Luck will never quite know if it is a Belichick bluff or no bluff call. Vince Wilfork’s quickness and explosiveness would be impressive for a man half his size. He uses his massive frame, super strength, and surprisingly nimble feet to set up roadblocks, shed blockers, and cave in ball carriers. Jamie Collins is playing at a very high level and his best single game was against the Colts in Week 11 where he had six stops, six tackles, and 1 QB hurry. The Colts offensive line has not graded well at any point this season. Luck's ability to extend plays has masked some of the real problems along the OL. Only LT Castanzo has a positive grading for the season. Yet, he had five games with negative grades in run blocking this season. Simply, there will be plenty of room for the Patriot elite linebackers led by Collins and Hightower, to find the QB or ball carrier. On the offensive side, the Patriots have 6 active RB on the roster. Jonas Gray went wild against the Colts in Week 11, but it is truly the diversity that this group brings that will make it very difficult for the Colts to defend. Blount is the power pounding RB. Shane Vareen played 41 snaps and 39 of those snaps were pass plays in last week's win. Then add Gray, Bolden, and White to the fray and you can immediately see how difficult it would be for the defense to guess what type of play has been called. I also see Edelman getting one or two attempts on jet sweeps adding more uncertainty for the defense to consider. So, Patriots will control the tempo and attain a significant edge in TOP. Take the 'under' for a 50* play, Patriots for a 25* play and 10* parlay with Patriots and 'under'.