Seattle vs Chicago 
8-Unit bet on the Under priced at 41.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an 82-41 record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.  

Betting on the Under in a game with a total between 42.5 and 49 points. 

The game occurs in the month of December or the final five weeks of the season. 

One of the teams (Bears) having lost to the spread by 21 or more points over their last three games. 

If our team is coming off two straight losses, the Under has gone 60-25 for 71% winning bets. 

The Bears have struggled mightily on offense in recent weeks. They have lost 9 consecutive games and have failed to cover the spread in 6 of them including a push result. Over this span of nine games, they have scored more than 20 points once and that was 30-27 home loss to the Vikings in 12. Since then, they have averaged just 12.4 PPG and as team have their minds more on the golf course then the football field.  

The Seahawks rank 15th in scoring offense, averaging 22.6 points per game, while the Bears are 26th, averaging just 18.9 points per game. Seattle's passing offense is impressive, ranking 4th with 244.5 yards per game, compared to Chicago's 27th-ranked passing offense at 191.3 yards per game2. However, the Bears have a slight edge in rushing offense, averaging 103.2 yards per game, while the Seahawks are at 91.9 yards per game, but that is the only edge. 

Seattle's defense has been solid, allowing just 22.7 points per game, ranking 12th in the league. The Bears' offense, on the other hand, has struggled, averaging just 18.9 points per game2. Additionally, the weather forecast for Soldier Field tonight calls for cold temperatures and strong winds, which could further limit offensive production.  

My summary analysis suggests that the Seahawks' pass rush will be key in containing Bears' quarterback Caleb Williams, who has been under pressure lately. Seattle's secondary, led by cornerback Tariq Woolen, will step up to disrupt Williams' timing and force quick decisions leading to mistakes. On the offensive side, Seahawks' quarterback Geno Smith will look to exploit the Bears' weak run defense, which ranks near the bottom of the league. The Seahawks' balanced attack and strong defense give them the edge in this matchup, and they know this is a must-win game where the defense needs to play well and limit the Bears scoring opportunities.  

Falcons vs Raiders 
8-Unit bet on the Under currently priced at 44 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 39-54 SU, 43-50 ATS, and 64-30 Under result for 68% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: 

Bet the UNDER in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points. 

One of the teams has lost to the spread by 21 or more points over their last three games. 

That same team is coming of two consecutive losses. 

The game occurs in December. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 35-29 SU, 30-33-1 ATS, and 41-23 Under result for 64% winning bets since 2004. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under in a MNF game. 

The total is lower than the average points scored and allowed by the home team. 

The total is lower than the average points scored and allowed by the visiting team. 

he key matchups to watch in the Falcons vs. Raiders game this Sunday are: 

Kirk Cousins vs. Raiders Defense: Kirk Cousins has been struggling lately, throwing eight interceptions in his last four games. The Raiders' defense, which has been solid recently, will look to capitalize on this and force turnovers. 

Bijan Robinson vs. Sincere McCormick: Both running backs have been performing well. Bijan Robinson is a top-10 rusher in the league, while Sincere McCormick has been averaging 5.5 yards per carry in his last three games. 

As for injuries, Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee. His status is uncertain, and the coaching staff will evaluate him throughout the week2. If he can't play, Desmond Ridder, who was previously with the Falcons, might get the start. The Raiders have also signed Carter Bradley to the active roster as a precaution. 

Patriots vs Cardinals 
8-Unit bet on the Under currently priced at 45.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 39-54 SU, 43-50 ATS, and 64-30 Under result for 68% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: 

Bet the UNDER in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points. 

One of the teams has lost to the spread by 21 or more points over their last three games. 

That same team is coming of two consecutive losses. 

The game occurs in December. 

Patriots Run Game vs. Cardinals Run Defense: The Patriots' running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, will need to exploit the Cardinals' run defense, which ranks 18th in the league. 

Patriots Pass Defense vs. Cardinals Passing Attack: The Patriots' secondary, led by cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Kyle Dugger, will need to contain Cardinals quarterback Drake Maye and his receivers. 

Patriots Offensive Line vs. Cardinals Pass Rush: The Patriots' offensive line will need to protect quarterback Drake Maye from the Cardinals' pass rush, which features players like defensive lineman Roy Lopez. 

Regarding injuries, here are the current statuses for both teams: 

New England Patriots 

Non-Participants: Wide receiver Javon Baker (concussion), cornerback Marcus Jones (illness). 

Limited Participants: Safety Kyle Dugger (ankle), cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder), linebacker Anfernee Jennings (knee), offensive tackle Vederian Lowe (shoulder), safety Jabrill Peppers (knee), defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy (foot), offensive lineman Cole Strange (knee), linebacker Sione Takitaki (knee), offensive tackle Caedan Wallace (ankle), defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr. (foot). 

Full Participants: Defensive lineman Christian Barmore (not injury-related). 

Arizona Cardinals 

Non-Participants: Offensive lineman Kelvin Beachum (rest), running back Emari Demercado (back), punter Blake Gillikin (right foot). 

Limited Participants: Cornerback Elijah Jones (ankle), defensive lineman Naquan Jones (shoulder), defensive lineman Roy Lopez (ankle), tight end Trey McBride (knee), defensive lineman Darius Robinson (calf). 

Bills vs Lions 
8-Unit bet on the Under currently priced at 54.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with an 18-15 SU, 17-15-1 ATS, and 22-11 Under result for 67% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under with a team that gained 5 or more yards per play in their previous game. 

That team is coming off a win. 

That team converted three or more fourth down situations. 

That team had three or fewer dropped passes. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced solid results with a 40-17 SU, 32-14-1 ATS, and 41-15-1 Under result for 73% winning bets since 2014. The requirements are: 

Bet on road teams that have outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG. 

They allowed 30 or more points in their previous game. 

From the Predictive Model: My model projects a high probability that the Bills defense will contain the Lions offense to 27 or fewer points and have the same or more turnovers (Lions same or more turnovers). In past games, the Under has gone 23-6 UNDER for 80% winning bets when the Lions have scored 27 or fewer points and had the same or more turnovers compared to their opponent. 

Key Matchups: 

CB Taron Johnson vs. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Johnson will be tasked with covering one of the league's top slot receivers in St. Brown. This matchup will be crucial in determining how well the Bills can contain Detroit's passing attack1. 

WR Keon Coleman vs. CB Terrion Arnold: Coleman is expected to return from his wrist injury, and he'll be up against Arnold, who has struggled this season. Coleman could have a big game if he can exploit Arnold's weaknesses1. 

OL Dion Dawkins vs. DE Za'Darius Smith: With Aiden Hutchinson out, Smith will be a key pass rusher for the Lions, and he'll be matched up against Dawkins, who has been playing at an elite level this season. 

Injured Starters: 

Keon Coleman (WR, Bills): Coleman is expected to return from his wrist injury for this game. 

Aiden Hutchinson (DE, Lions): Hutchinson is out for the season with a leg injury 

Steelers vs Eagles  
8-Unit bet on the Over currently priced at 42.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 67% Over mark going 30-15 sicne 2015 

Bet the Over in a game with a road underdog. 

The game is a matchup of non-divisional foes. 

The game is a sandwich game between divisional foes for the visitor. 

Key Matchups 

T.J. Watt vs. Lane Johnson: This is the marquee matchup. Watt is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL with over 100 career sacks3. Johnson, on the other hand, is one of the best offensive tackles and has consistently shut down elite edge rushers. 

Steelers Run Defense vs. Eagles Rushing Attack: The Steelers have the 4th best run defense in the NFL. The Eagles have a strong rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley3. 

Eagles Passing Offense vs. Steelers Pass Defense: The Steelers are middle of the pack in passing defense, allowing 218.6 yards per game. Jalen Hurts, the Eagles' quarterback, has been holding onto the ball longer this season, which could be a factor

8-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as 13.5-point favorites 
8-Unit bet Over the posted total currently at 45.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 38-2 SU (95%) and a 30-8-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:  

Bet on double-digit favorites.  

They are facing a foe that has won between 25 and 40% of their games.  

The foe is on a two or more-game losing streak.  

The game occurs from week 9 on out to the end of the season. 

Date and Venue 

Date: Sunday, December 8, 2024 

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA 

8-Unit bet on the OVER priced at 45.5 points. 

The Eagles have won 8 straight games and committed just three turnovers during the streak and only 11 other teams have ever accomplished this rare feat of excellence. In past games, these elite teams have seen the market overprice them as reflected with a 5-7 SU and 4-7-1 ATS record for 36% winning bets since 2010. The OVER, however, has gone 11-1 for 92% winning bets. If this team is playing at home, they have produced a 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, and a perfect 7-0 OVER record. 

Team Overview 

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have had a challenging season, currently holding a 3-9 record. They are at the bottom of the NFC South. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young has shown potential but has struggled with consistency, throwing for 1,083 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. Running back Chuba Hubbard has been a bright spot, contributing both on the ground and through the air. 

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have been impressive this season, boasting a 10-2 record and leading the NFC East. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a standout performer with 2,376 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and five interceptions1. Running back Saquon Barkley has added a dynamic rushing attack, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and scoring 10 touchdowns. 

Key Matchups 

Panthers' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Panthers' offense, led by Bryce Young, will need to overcome the Eagles' formidable defense, which ranks highly in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles' defense, despite missing key players like Brandon Graham and Darius Slay Jr., remains a significant challenge. 

Eagles' Offense vs. Panthers' Defense: The Eagles' offense, led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, will look to exploit the Panthers' struggling defense, which has allowed an average of 226.7 passing yards and 160.5 rushing yards per game. 

Betting Spreads and Totals 

Moneyline: Panthers +310, Eagles -375 

Point Spread: Panthers +8.5, Eagles -7.5 

Total: Over/Under 44.5 

Team Rankings 

Carolina Panthers: Ranked 26th in points per game (17.6), 26th in passing yards per game (177.8), and 22nd in rushing yards per game (107.7). 

Philadelphia Eagles: Ranked 1st in points per game (30.9), 8th in passing yards per game (195.7), and 1st in rushing yards per game (193.4). 

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos: Monday Night Football Preview 

Game Details 

Date: Monday, December 2, 2024 

Time: 8:15 PM EST 

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO 

Broadcast: ESPN 

8-Unit best bet on the Under currently priced at 42 points. 
5-Unit bet on the Broncos –6 points. Or consider 3 units using the money. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 22-10 UNDER record good for 69% winning bets. The requirements needed for an active betting opportunity are: 

Bet the Under with a team that had 3 or fewer dropped passes in theirprevious game. 

That same team converted three or more fourth downs in their last game. 

That same team won their previous game. 

That same team gained 5 or more yards per play in their last game. 

From the predictive model: My predictive mode is projecting an 83% probability that the Browns will score fewer than 20 points and gain fewer yards per play than Denver. In past games, in which the Broncos met these expectations, they have produced a 124-53 UNDER good for 70% winning bets since 1989 and 18-6 UNDER for 75% winning bets.  

Denver has gone 17-7 (71%) and 19-5 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2020 when meeting these projections and 11-3 SU when playing at home. 

Giants vs Cowboys 
4:30 ET Thanksgiving Day 
5-Unit bet on the Over currently priced at 37 points. 

 The following NFL betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 9-1-1 Over record good for 90% winners spanning the past 35 season. 

Bet on home teams. 

That home team scored two or more non-offensive TDs in their previous game. 

The Cowboys had two kickoff returns for TDs in their sloppy and highly improbable win over the Commanders, who missed an extra point with 27 seconds remaining that would have tied the game.  

Bears vs Lions 
8-Unit bet on the Over priced at 48.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 56-38 SU and 46-45-3 ATS for 55% and 59-35 Over for 63% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:  

A team is coming off two consecutive divisional games.  

Their opponent is coming off a non-conference game.  

Drilling deeper into the database we learn that if these teams are on the road and have won at least two of their last three games has seen the Over produce an 18-7 record good for 72% over the past 10 seasons. 

Arizona vs Seattle 
8-Unit bet on the Over currently priced at 47.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 56-38 SU and 46-45-3 ATS for 55% and 59-35 Over for 63% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are: 

A team is coming off two consecutive divisional games. 

Their opponent is coming off a non-conference game. 

Drilling deeper into the database we learn that if these teams are on the road and have won at least two of their last three games has seen the Over produce an 18-7 record good for 72% over the past 10 seasons. 

eam Overview 

The Denver Broncos (6-5) are set to face the Las Vegas Raiders (3-8) in Week 12 of the NFL season. The Broncos are coming off a dominant 38-6 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, while the Raiders are reeling from a six-game losing streak. 

Team Statistics 

Denver Broncos: 

Offense: Overall (23), Rush (20), Pass (25), Scoring (20) 

Defense: Overall (3), Rush (6), Pass (7), Scoring (3) 

Turnover Differential: Even 

Las Vegas Raiders: 

Offense: Overall (30), Rush (32), Pass (17), Scoring (25) 

Defense: Overall (15), Rush (15), Pass (11), Scoring (29) 

Turnover Differential: Minus-15 

Key Player Performances 

Denver Broncos: 

Bo Nix (QB): Nix has been a revelation this season, winning the NFL's Rookie of the Month award in October and the AFC Player of the Week award in November. He threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns in Week 111. 

Brock Bowers (TE): Bowers has been a consistent target for Nix, with 70 receptions for 706 yards and three touchdowns this season. 

Courtland Sutton (WR): Sutton has four consecutive games with at least 70 receiving yards, a first for a Broncos receiver since 2019. 

Las Vegas Raiders: 

Maxx Crosby (DE): Crosby leads the Raiders with 35 quarterback pressures, despite a recent sack drought. 

Zamir White (RB): White's status is uncertain due to a quadriceps injury. 

Nate Hobbs (CB): Hobbs is also questionable with an ankle injury. 

Injury Reports 

Denver Broncos: 

G Ben Powers (shoulder): Powers got hurt last week and is questionable. 

S Brandon Jones (abdomen): Jones missed the last game and is also questionable. 

Las Vegas Raiders: 

RB Alexander Mattison (ankle): Mattison is questionable for the game. 

RB Zamir White (quadriceps): White is also questionable. 

CB Nate Hobbs (ankle): Hobbs is questionable. 

CB Jack Jones (back): Jones is questionable. 

CB Jakorian Bennett (shoulder): Bennett is questionable. 

Date: Thursday, November 21, 2024  
Time: 8:15 PM ET  
Venue: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio  
Broadcast: Amazon Prime Video  
Bet grades and recommendations: 8-Unit bet on the Under currently priced at 36.5 points and a 5-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 3.5-point underdogs. 

Since this is a prime-time game and the only one to watch it gives us a great Live betting opportunity. My plan and my suggestion are to bet 70% preflop at 36.5 points and then look for the game flow to be faster than expected (on the scoreboard) and add the remaining 30% amount at 41.5 or more points during the first half of action only. Any bets made int he second half have a limited time to be winning bets, and I do not recommend them often. It’s like purchasing a call option on Nvidia that has an expiration date of December 6. The value of the option will decay as the expiration date approaches unless there is a move that matches our expectations.  

The Steelers cashed my preseason wins total ticket when they defeated their divisional rival Ravens Sunday. I have stated countless times over many years that Mike Tomlin is the most unappreciated and best head coach in the NFL. He has never had a losing season and continues to field teams that appear to have limited talent and depth, and this season may be the best coaching job of his career. 

Defense. Defense. Defense. The Steelers defense has become an elite unit that has given opponents their season-lows in points and total yards gained. In fact, the Chargers, Broncos, and the top offense in the NFL, the Ravens, were held to season lows in points scored. They rank third in defensive points per play at 0.2888 and any ratio at 0.30 or lower is elite. Generally, three or fewer teams finish a season under 0.3 points per play allowed and the Steelers unit will be one of this season. 

NFL Betting Algorithm 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone  good for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons not including the COVID-19 season. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under in a game where one of the teams (Steelers) has won 60% or more of their games. 

Their next game is on the road facing a divisional foe. 

The game takes place in a prime-time slot. 

    The Under has gone 16-9 for 64% winning bets in divisional games where a team has 6 or more losses than the foe, the foe is coming off a divisional win, and that foe has an elite defense allowing fewer than 17 PPG.  

    The following NFL betting algorithm that supports a 5-Unit bet on the Browns has gone 28-38 SU and 46-18-2 ATS good for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on home underdogs priced between 3.5 and 9.5 points.  

The dog scored 14 or fewer points in their previous game.  

The dog is outscored by an average of 5 or more points in the first half.  

If our dog is outscored by 7 or more points in the first half of action, they have gone 18-25 SU and 32-9-2 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

    The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 60-39-2 Under good for 61% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet the under if it is priced below 44 points. 

The home team is coming off a horrid loss by 21 or more points. 

The game occurs from week 9 on out to the end of the season. 

What's at Stake 

The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) are looking to extend their five-game winning streak and solidify their position atop the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns (2-8) are aiming to rebound from a tough loss and avoid falling further behind in the division. With the Browns' head coach Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry potentially fighting to save their jobs, this game is crucial for Cleveland. 

History of the Matchup 

The Browns and Steelers have a storied rivalry known as the "Turnpike Rivalry," named after the Pennsylvania Turnpike that connects the two cities. The Steelers have historically had the upper hand, but the Browns have been competitive in recent years, boasting a 3-1 record against Pittsburgh in their last four meetings at home. 

Team Statistics 

Cleveland Browns: 

Offense: 16.2 points per game (31st in NFL) 

Defense: 23.3 points allowed per game (20th in NFL) 

Rushing: 90.8 yards allowed per game (4th in NFL) 

Passing:214.5 yards allowed per game (18th in NFL) 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 

Offense: 23.3 points per game (18th in NFL) 

Defense: 16.2 points allowed per game (2nd in NFL) 

Rushing:136.7 yards per game (8th in NFL) 

Passing:187.3 yards per game (28th in NFL) 

Stars and Their Stats 

Cleveland Browns: 

Jameis Winston (QB): 1,047 passing yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 61.4% completion rate 

Jerry Jeudy (WR): 39 receptions, 560 yards, 2 TDs 

Myles Garrett (DE): 23 tackles, 10 TFL, 7 sacks 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 

Russell Wilson (QB): 942 passing yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 60.3% completion rate 

Najee Harris (RB): 175 carries, 708 yards, 3 TDs, 21 receptions, 182 yards 

T.J. Watt (DE): 36 tackles, 12 TFL, 7.5 sacks 

Bengals vs Ravens 
Thursday, November 7 
8-Unit Bet on the Under currently priced at 53 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 19-6 Under good for 76% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. The requirements are: 

The game is played in prime time. 

One of the teams (Ravens) faces a divisional foe on the road in their next game. 

That team has won 60% or more of their games. 

Thursday Night Football heats up as the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) host the Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at M&T Bank Stadium on November 7, 2024. This AFC North rivalry is always intense, and this matchup is no exception. 

National Standings 

Baltimore Ravens: 6-3, currently 2nd in the AFC North. 

Cincinnati Bengals: 4-5, currently 3rd in the AFC North. 

Key Players 

Baltimore Ravens: 

Lamar Jackson: The Ravens' star quarterback has been on fire this season, throwing for 2,379 yards, 20 touchdowns, and two interceptions. He's also rushed for 505 yards and two touchdowns. 

Derrick Henry: The powerhouse running back has amassed 1,052 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. 

Zay Flowers: The emerging wide receiver has 46 receptions for 654 yards and three touchdowns. 

Cincinnati Bengals: 

Joe Burrow: The Bengals' quarterback has thrown for 2,244 yards, 20 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He's also rushed for 117 yards and one touchdown. 

Ja'Marr Chase: The standout wide receiver has 55 catches for 717 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Tee Higgins: Another key receiver, Higgins has been battling an injury but remains a significant threat. 

Team Statistics 

Ravens Offense: Ranked in the top 10, averaging 26.4 points per game. 

Ravens Defense: Ranked outside the top 20, allowing 24.3 points per game. 

Bengals Offense: Ranked in the top 10, averaging 25.7 points per game. 

Bengals Defense: Ranked outside the top 20, allowing 26.1 points per game. 

Injuries and Player Statuses 

Bengals: 

Tee Higgins: Battling an injury but expected to play. 

Joe Mixon: Questionable with a knee injury. 

Ravens: 

Mark Andrews: Out with a knee injury. 

Ronald Darby: Questionable with a shoulder injury. 

Bucs vs Chiefs 
8:15 EST | ESPN/ABC 
10-Unit Bet Under the total currently priced at 45.5 points. 
If the Bucs score first, I like a 3-Unit bet amount on the Chiefs. 
Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 73-43 Under good for 63% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under in a game with a total between 42 and 49 points. 

One of the teams has played in four consecutive games in which 50 or more points were scored in each game. 

Here is an NFL betting algorithm that has gone 26-11 Under good for 70% winning bets over the past 8 seasons. This system has gone 23-13-1 ATS for 64% winning bets too and uderscores the 3-Unit bet mentioned above. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under from week 5 to the end of the season. 

The favorite is priced between 6.5 and 9.5 points. 

The underdog has seen the total play over by 30 or more points spanning their last five games. 

If the favorite is playing at home the Under has gone 18-7 for 72% winning bets over the past 8 seasons. If the total is 47.5 or fewer points the Under has gone 12-4 for 75% winning bets.  

Giants vs Steelers 
8:15 ET, Monday, October 28 
8-Unit Bet on the UNDER currently priced at 36.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 39-19 Under record good for 67% winning bets since 1999. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under that is priced at 37 or fewer points in weeks 4 through 10. 

The road team is the underdog. 

The road team is coming off a game in which they gained an average of 20 or fewer yards per drive in their previous game. 

The Giants are coming off a horrid 28-3 loss to the NFC East divisional rival Eagles in which they gained a total of 119 yards. 

Titans vs Lions 
1 ET | FOX | Ford Field 
8-Unit bet on the Under currently priced at 45 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a 21-9 Under record good for 70% winning bets since 1989. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under in any game. 

The home team is coming off an upset road win over a divisional foe. 

The home team is priced as a double-digit favorite. 

Vikings vs Rams 
8:15 ET | Prime Video 
8-unit bet on the Under priced at 47.5 points. 

Live Betting Strategy for tonight is bet 5.5-units preflop and then look for these teams to get put to faster than expected start and at 1.5 units at 49.5 points and 1-unit at 51.5 points. 

Some situational trends specific to Thursday Night Football shows us that home dogs have seen the Under go 34-24 for 59% since 2015. If the dog priced as pick to 4.5 points has gone 14-27 SU (34%) and 17-24 ATS (42%). 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 41-15 for 74% winning Under bets over the past 10 seasons.  

The road team allowed 30 or more [points in their last game. 

The road team is outscoring their foes by 7 or more PPG. 

The following situational angle has gone 32-18 Under for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The game is in prime time, one of the teams is facing a divisional foe on the road in the following week, 

Chargers vs Broncos 
4:05 ET | CBS 
8-Unit bet Over the posted total currently priced at 35.5 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 37-26 Over for 59% winning bets over the past 7 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet the Over in a conference matchup. 

The dog is priced between 3 and 7.5 points. 

The opponent was priced as a dog of three or more points in their previous game. 

The opponent lost the previous game to a conference foe. 

Dolphins vs Patriots 
1 ET | Gillette Stadium 
8-Unit bet on the Over 36 points. 

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 42-21-1 Over for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on a home team that has lost three or more of their last 4 games. 

The opponent has lost three or more of their last four games. 

Both teasm have a win percentage between 25 and 40%. 

If the teams have won one game over their last four the Over improves to a highly profitable 26-9-1 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

Chargers vs Panthers 
1 ET | CBS | Bank of America Stadium 
8-unit bet on the OVER priced at 39 points. 

The following betting algorithm has produced an incredible 35-8 Over record good for 81% winning bets. The requirements needed are: 

Bet the Over in games priced with a total of 40 or fewer points. 

The road team is coming off a win over a divisional foe by 11 or more points. 

The game occurs in the first four weeks of the season. 

This is certainly a contrarian pick with the betting community betting the Under with irrational exuberance. That never means this Over bet is a winner but over the course of the past 10 seasons this algorithm has had 8 losses along the way. No one knows with any degree of certainty of this bet is going to a part of the 81% winners or the 19% losers but I will take even 70% winners this season when we get the first week of January. 

From the Predictive Model: We learn that the Chargers are 37-14 Over for 73% winning bets in games with a posted total of 45 or fewer points, have the same or fewer turnovers, and the opponent recording 10 or more passing first downs. 

Tampa Bay vs Detroit

3:00 PM EST | NBC
Ford Field, Detroit
8-Unit Bet Over the posted total of 49.5 points and is valid to 50.5 points.

Consider betting 50% preflop on the Over at the current price available and then look for a bit slower start to the game and add 25% more at 46.5 points and 44.5 points to complete the 7-Unit bet during the first half of action. To be clear you are making full game bet on the Over during the first half of action only. If you do not execute either of the 25% betting amounts at the prescribed numbers, then at the half if the price is 50.5 or fewer points add the 50% at that time.

In the divisional round of the playoffs teams that have played Under the posted total in four consecutive games has seen the Over go 6-1. In the divisional round of the playoffs teams that have played Under the posted total in three consecutive games and is the dog has seen the Over go 12-4 for 75% winning bets.

Teams playing the divisional round of the NFL playoffs that won their Wild card game by 21 or more points have seen the Over go 24-12 for 67% winning bets averaging an ou margin of 7.3 PPG over the posted total last 20 seasons. If our team has allowed an average of 17 or fewer points over their last three games, the OVER has gone 14-4 for 78% winning bets.

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans
8-Unit best bet OVER the posted total of 44.5 points and is valid top 46.5 points.
Consider betting 6-Units preflop and then look to add 2-Units at 40.5 points during the first half of action.

Bet the Over in a game priced between 43 and 50 points after game number 8 and the playoffs where one of the teams is averaging 6.75 to 7.5 yards per pass play and is coming off a game in which they gained 8 or more YPPA and facing a defense that is allowing 5.25 to 5.99 YPPA has produced a highly profitable 29-7 Over record good for 81% winning bets over the past 33 seasons. In the playoffs the Over has gone 5-1 for 83% winning bets.

If the total is between 44.5 and 48.5 points, the OVER has produced a 22-4 record for 85% winning bets.

Texans are 29-15 Over in home games and coming off two straight Under result games. Browns HC Stefanski is 11-3 Over in road games after having won four or five of their last six games.

NY Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

Thursday NFL on Prime
8-Unit Bet on the Jets plus the 7 points and is valid down to 5.5 points.

8-Unit Bet Under 36 points and is valid to 35.5 points.

Betting on road teams in the last four weeks of the season that are facing a host that is averaging 2 or more points per drive and has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in each of their last three games has produced a 15-20 SU record and 23-11-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game is a conference matchup these road warriors have gone 13-15 SU and 20-8 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Two of the best defenses in the NFL square off in this matchup and there is an opportunity to bet the Under. Betting the Under in a game involving a team that converted three or more fourth down situations in a win in their previous game has produced a 46-25-2 record fort 65% winning bets since 2002.  So, I suggest betting 75% of your normal bet size preflop on the Under and then look to get the remaining 25% at 41.5 or more points.

I do not play teasers often, but there is an opportunity for those of you who do enjoy the teaser bets.  Tease the Jets up to 13 points and the Under up to 42 points. As game time approaches Thursday, there may be better prices available enabling you to get 42.5 points and 13.5 points. If you choose to do the teaser, I recommend betting 2 units only and then reduce the 8-Unit bets on the Jets and the Under to 7-unit bets.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers
10-Unit Best Bet on the OVER currently priced at 46.5 points and is valid up to 48 points.

Consider betting 7 units preflop and then look to add 1.5 units each at 45.5 and 42.5 points during the first half of action.

Let’s look at this incredibly profitable betting algorithm that supports the OVER Bet. Betting the Over in games where one of the teams is playing with extra rest and is priced as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points from Week 9 on out and is a matchup of teams with the same record and is above 0.500 has earned a 16-3 record for 84% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. Very rare, but still an extremely strong betting algorithm.

Here is a variation of that system has provided more betting opportunities and has gone 44-20-2 Over for 69% winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Over with a team with a winning record that is facing a foe with the same record and the total is 42.5 or more points and with the game occurring after Week 9.

From the predictive models we are expecting the 49ers and the Ravens to each score 21 or more points. In past home games with a total of 46 or more points since 1993, the 49ers have seen the Over go 18-3 for 86% winning bets when both teams have scored 21 or more points. In past road games since 1993, the Ravens have seen the Over go a perfect 14-0. Combined that is a 32-3 (91%) Over metric.

Philadelphia vs Seattle

8-Unit best bet Under the total currently priced at 45 points.

I recommend getting 50% to 75% of your bet amount done before 6:00 ET given the uncertainty surrounding whether Hurts can start or not. If he cannot, then the betting line will push closer towards a pickem and the total will move lower. If hurts does play, the total may move marginally higher ahead of the kickoff.

So, look for both teams to get out to faster than expected starts and consider adding the remaining betting amount on the Under at 49.5 or more points during the first half of action.

Betting on the Under in a game with a total between 42.5 and 49 points in the month of December (final five weeks of the season) with one of the teams (Eagles) having lost to the spread by 21 or more points over their last three games has produced a 82-41 record good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is coming off two straight losses, the Under has gone 60-25 for 71% winning bets and if our team has a winning record, the Under is 9-2 over the past 10 seasons.

Steelers vs Colts
10-Unit Bet on the Over currently priced at 42.5 points and is valid up to 44.5 points.

Betting on the OVER in a matchup of teams with identical record and are at .500 or better, the total is 42.5 or more points and one of the teams has had more than 7 days of rest since their last game has earned a 44-20-2 Over record good for 69% winning bets. If the game takes place from Week 12 on out, the Over has produced a 32-13-1 record for 71% winning bets.

LA Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Thursday Night on Prime
10-UNIT BET on the Over 34.5 points and is valid up to and including 35.5 points.

Consider betting 8-Units preflop and the look to add the remaining 2-units at 31.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting the Over with a team that has lost three of their last four games (Raiders) and is a matchup of teams that have won 25 to 40% of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 86-47-2 for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the team is at home and priced between the 3’s the Over has gone 28-12 for 70% winning bets.

Every season over the past 10 seasons has made profits making this an extraordinary betting algorithm you want to keep and track forever.

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST | FOX

Lincoln Financial Field
5-Unit best bet on the OVER 48 points and is valid up to 49.5 points

This is game 4 of the 6-game gauntlet of having to facing winning record teams, who are also playoff and divisional contenders. The game will be the third one in the past 13 days and coming off the OT and come from behind win over the Bills last Sunday adds the fatigue factor the Eagles team is dealing with. However, the entire betting world is on the 49ers and I did put out a betting angle and breakdown supporting the 49ers earlier the week on many shows including ESPN Syracuse. My appetite to bet the 49ers has been reduced to a tepid one to say the least as I find it extremely difficult to fade this Eagles team is 28-2 with Hurts under center. They may be getting smoked in games in the box score, but the style points just do not matter to a team that is 10-1 and has will to win second to none. Yet, the total in this game is the opportunity presented by the models.

Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
8-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total of 47.5 points and is valid up to 48.5 points.

This is the highest total each of these teams have played in and stands to reason given the various matchups favoring a much higher scoring affair than is expected.

Betting on the Over in a game with a total priced at 47 or more points with one of the teams (Texans) coming off a three or fewer point loss to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in December has earned a solid 24-11-1 for 69% winning bets since 1996.

Betting the Over in a game with a total priced between 45 and 49.5 points that is coming off a loss of fewer than 7 points to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in the second half of the season has earned a 31-13-1 record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders
1:00 ET | FOX
FedEx Field
8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 49.5 points and is valid up to and including 51.5 points.

The weather in the DC region is not going to be a factor in this game and current forecasts are for no rain to start to the game. Temps are milder than normal for this time of year.

The Commanders rank last or near last in 10 of my defense power ratings. They rank last in scoring defense, points per play allowed, TDs allowed per game, third-worst in passing yards allowed per game. Miami ranks second in scoring offense, first in offensive yards per game, first in points-per-play, first in yards gained per play, first in red zone scoring percentage, first in TDs scored per game. Get the point?

Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. Plus, if we increase the PPG to 30 PPG, this system has gone 11-4 OVER for 73% winning bets for the base part of this system.

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST | FOX
8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total currently priced at 48.5 and is valid down to 47.5 points. However, the betting trends are supportive of the OVER and this has potential to move to 49.5 ahead of kickoff.

Betting the Under in a game played from Week 9 on out and where the home favorite has won at least 80% of their games on the season and is coming off a road upset win has seen the Under go 24-12 for 67% winning bets since 1989.

Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos
Sunday 4:05 PM EST | FOX
8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 35.5 points

Last week the Browns won a critical game 13-10 at home over their divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers. They were 1.5-point favorites and were covering the spread for 70% of the game, but needed a late scoring drive by rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson to set up the last second field goal to break a 10-10 tie. They also failed to convert on 13 of 17 third down situations and the two teams combined converted just 7 of 31 third situations. That is not efficient ball control offense no matter you would twist it around and it does carry over in the next game.

Road teams that failed to convert on 13 of or more third down attempts, but still managed to win that game at home have seen the Under go 21-8 for 72.4% winning tickets since 2001. If the total is less than 50 points in these games the Under has gone 19-8 for 70% winning bets. If the matchup is a non-divisional game, the Under then soars to 15-4 for 79% winning bets.

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
3:00 PM EST Friday | Prime Video
8-Unit Best Bet Under the total currently priced at 41 points and is good down to 40 points.

Bet on the Under with a total of 44 or fewer points from week 9 on out and the home team is coming off an embarrassing loss of 21 or more points has produced a 38-22-1 Under record for 63% winning bets since 2013. If that previous blowout loss was on the road to a divisional foe, the Under has gone 14-8-1 for 64% winning bets since 2009. If the matchup see the home team with a losing record while the guest has a winning record improves the Under record to 11-4 for 73% winning bets since 2013.

Chargers vs Packers
1 ET | FOX
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER 43.5 points and good down to 42.5 points.

Green Bay head coach LeFleur is 23-12 Under when coming off a road game and 26-15-1 Under when facing a below average pass defense that is allowing 64% or more completions on the season.

Teams coming off a game in which they made two or more fourth down conversions and were 100% on all fourth down situations have seen the Under go 42-18-2 for 70% winning bets since 2001. This system has been at .500 or better since 2012 posting an impressive 28-10-1 Under for 74% winning bets.

Since Justin Herbert’s first start for the Chargers, the franchise has suffered their 13th loss by three or fewer points. The Bengals lead the NFL since 2020 with 14 losses by a field goal or less. The Chargers defense will play better against the Packers offense that ranks 21st in the league scoring an average of 19.9 PPG. The Chargers rank third allowing just 34% 3rd down conversions. From the predictive model, we learn that the Chargers are 11-5 Under for 69% winners in games in which they allowed 35% or lower third down conversions over the past three season.

Vikings vs Broncos
8:20 PM EST Sunday Night FB
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
10-Unit best Bet on the Denver Broncos -2.5 points and is good up to and including -4.5 points.

Betting on losing record teams from Week 9 on out that are facing a foe that has won 50 to 60% of their games and coming off an upset home win have produced a remarkable 18-13 SU record and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our team is playing at home, their record has been 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets. If the game has a total of 45 or fewer points, our team regardless of home or away situation have gone 14-11 SU and 21-3-1 ATS for 88% winning bets.

Cardinals vs Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston
8-Unit Bet on the Cardinals plus the 6 points

The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 28-16-2 ATS record for 64% winners over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points

·      Game is taking place from Week 9 on to the end of the regular season.

·      Our dog is facing a foe has a winning record in the current season.

·      That foe is coming off an upset win.

·      That foe won six or fewer games in their previous season.

If we drill down a bit further int the database and include games that had a posted total of 42.5 or more points has earned a highly profitable 16-7-2 ATS for 70% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Bears vs Lions
1 ET | FOX
Ford Field, Detroit
8-Unit Bet on the Bears plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points. If any line movements occurs, I see it going to +8.

Consider betting 75% on the Bears preflop and then look for the Lions to score the first TD of the game and then bet the Live line with the remaining 25% amount.

Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that has gained at least 400 total yards in each of their last two games and are outgaining their foes by at least 50 yards per game on the season has earned an outstanding 88-44 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the game occurs in the second half of the season, from Week 9 on, our team’s record is 42-26-2 ATS for 62% winning bets and if favored between 3.5 and 6.5 points have earned a solid 24-11-1 ASTS mark for 69% winning bets.

Chicago has the second-best rush defense in the NFL allowing 76 RYPG and have held their last seven foes to less than 100 RY. Five of the last six opponents have been held to less than 50 RY and only the Saints gained more (87) over this span. The Lions will struggle to run the ball period. What is more impressive is that the Bears average 9.4 blitzes per game, which is below the league average of 10.25 blitzes per game. So, the Bears safeties can focus on bracketing receivers and especially tight ends. The Lions have a very good TE in Sam LaPorta, who is second on the team with 47 receptions on 64 targets and gaining 474 yards. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (65 catches) and LaPorta account for 46% of the team’s total completions and also account for 151 of the team’s 307 targets of 49%.

Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that have allowed fewer than 1200 rushing yards in each of their previous three games has earned a 27-6 ATS record for 82% winning bets since 2018. If our team averages fewer than 10 blitzes per game, these road warriors soar to a remarkable 17-2 ATS  record for 90% winning bets.

Cincinnati vs Baltimore
Thursday
8-Unit Best bet on the OVER 46.5 points

First, this is not a bet on the OVER because the Under in proime time games has hit at historical extreme win percentages. Since Week 2 action when the Over went 13-3 for 81% winning bets, the Under had not gone less than 50% in any week until last week when the Over went 8-5 for 62% winning tickets. However, in prime time games, the Under continued its meteoric win percentage going 3-0 Under marking the third consecutive week that all three prime games played Under their respective totals. For the season, the Under is 25-7 for 78% winning bets in prime time spots, which is the highest win percentage since the 2012 season when the Under went 28-14 for 67% in these prime time games.

Betting OVER the total in a game where one of the teams is coming off a three or fewer point loss to a divisional rival and with the game taking place in the second half of the season has earned an outstanding 31-8-1 record for 80% winning tickets over the past five seasons. If the current game is against divisional foes, then the Over record has been 13-3 for 81% winning bets over the past five seasons. Even if the loss was by 7 or fewer points and this is another divisional matchup, the Over has gone 23-9 for 72% winning bets.

Live in-Game betting Strategy: I suggest considering to make a preflop bet of 75% of your normal bet size and then look to add 25% more at 42.5 points during the first half of action.

NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Dallas
4:25 PM | FOX
10-Unit best bet OVER the posted total of 38.5 points

I also like betting the Over Giant and Cowboys team totals for no more than 2-units each. If elect to do those two bets, then reduce the 10-UNIT Game total to a 7-Unit bet.

Another option is to bet 70% of your bet size preflop on the Over, and then look for a slower than expected start and add the remaining 30% betting amount at 33.5 points.

Let’s get right to it. Betting on the Over in a game with a total of 39.5 or fewer points in the second meeting of a same-season divisional matchup, the line is double-digits has earned a 14-8-1 record for 64% winning bets.

The Cowboys rank third in the NFL scoring an average of 27.5 PPG for the season and 37 PPG in home games. The Giants rank dead last averaging just 11.22 PPG but have averaged 14.8 PPG in their road games. Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have averaged 32.8 PPG at home ranking best in the NFL by more than 3-points.

Betting Over with a game total between 35.5 and 42 points, with a home team that is averaging an excellent 6.7 to 7.25 yards per pass, gained at least 7 yards per pass attempt in their previous game and facing a struggling passing team averaging 5.3 or fewer yards per pass attempt has seen the Over go 26-12 for 68% winning bets since 1994 and is 6-0 Over the past 10 seasons.

Betting the Over with a game total between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams getting outscored by four or more PPG and is coming off five consecutive Under results has earned a 31-18-2 record for 63.3% winning bets since 1994 and 18-7-1 Over if that team is on a 6-game Under streak. If on a 7-game Under streak, which the Giants are currently on the Over is 5-1.

McCarthy is on an 8-1 Over streak in home games when facing a divisional foe.

From the predictive playbook, the Cowboys are 9-2 Over for 82% when averaging at least 7 YPPA over their past five seasons. 85% probability that the Cowboys average at least 7 YPPA.

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
4:05 PM | CBS
8-Unit best bet on the Under 43.5 points

Betting on the Under from Week 9 on out with s home team that is coming off a terrible loss by 21 or more points and a total of 44 or fewer points has earned a solid 38-19-1 record for 67% winning tickets. If that horrid loss was on the road, the Under record improves to 32-14-1 for 70% winning bets.

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
1:00 PM | FOX
8-Unit best bet on the Under 45.5 points

Betting the Under in a game priced between the 3’s, with one of the teams having lost to the spread in three straight games and facing a foe that has won their last two games ATS has gone 30-17 for 64% winning tickets since 2015. If one of the teams has lost 3 straight ATS and the foe has won three straight the Under has gone 14-8 for 64% winners.

Home teams that are coming off the BYE and facing a foe that is also coming off their BYE has seen the Under go 70-57 for 55%. If the total is between 42 and 49 points, the Under has gone 25-17 for 60% winners. The clincher is the fact that in a game that features two winning record teams both coming off the BYE week, the Under is a stellar 22-9 for 71% winning bets.

Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

8-Unit Best Bet on the OVER, currently at 37 points.

I like betting this one with 5-Units on the OVER preflop, then 1.5-units each at 33.5 and 31.5 points if the pace of the game is quite slow over the first half of action. The worst thing that happens is that we do get those price levels, but that also implies that the OVER preflop bet is more than likely winning and looking good.

Betting on any team with a total between 35.5 and 42 points, with one of the teams (Steelers) coming off four or more consecutive Under results, and is getting outscored by 4.5 or more points per game on the season has earned a solid 63-34 record good for 65% winning bets since 1989. If that team is playing at home, the Over has gone a highly profitable 38-13 for 74.5% winning bets.

Here is a subset of that system that has gone 13-1 Over for 93% winning bets. Bet the over in a game where the home team is on a five or more game Under streak, has been outscored by 4 or more PPG and with a game total between 35.5 and 40 points.

Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total of 40.5 points

Betting the Over in a game with a total between 37.5 and 42 points in which one of the teams is getting outscored by 4 or more points per game and is on a 4 or more Under streak has gone 38-21 for 64.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If that team (Pittsburgh) is playing at home, then the Over has gone 25-10 for 71.4% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

Philadelphia vs Washington

1:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet Under the posted total of 43.5 points

Philadelphia goes for it on fourth down and short yardage a lot and last week they

Team that are coming off a game in which they covered 3 or more fourth down attempts and now on the road have seen the Under go 42-17-2 for 71% winning bets since 2001.  

Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
8:20 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Under currently priced at 43.5 points

I prefer betting this game with a 5.5-unit amount preflop and then look for a faster than expected start to the game and add 1.5 units at 47.5 points and then the final unit at 49.5 points during the first half of action.

San Francisco went on the road with a perfect record to take on the Cleveland Browns and they lost as a favorite. We were on the Browns as many of you know and sprinkled the money line as well. Many times, the first loss of a season by a stellar elite team regroups with a focus on the defensive end, which is the area of the game that gave the dog the chance at the outright upset win. 49ers have the best defense3 in the NFL, and at least in the NFC. The Jets defense held the Eagles offense to just 14 points in their upset win and are the only other team possibly better than the 49ers defensive unit.

The 49ers defense ranks second allowing in the NFL allowing 14.5 PPG, third allowing 278 yards per game, second with a 0.235 points allowed per play ratio. 3rd allowing 4.5 YPPL. And second allowing 5.1 yards per pass despite ranking 31st with the second highest opponent pass play percentage. Offensive schemes going up against the 49ers defense focus on the pass game to have any chance at getting the upset win. Teams are averaging the second-lowest average of rushes (20.2 per game) in the league. The Vikings throw the ball the highest amount in the NFL at 69% of all plays run.

The 49ers great defense is not because of an overly aggressive scheme. In fact, they rank 19th in the league blitzing on 14% of their defensive plays. The top blitz team in the league is the Vikings with 132 blitzes or 33% of their total defensive plays. The 49ers lead the league with a total of 27 quarterback hits and second to the Eagles (75) with 69 quarterback pressures. Remember the 49ers have played on fewer game than the Eagles. So, the 49ers front four can generate enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks without having to blitz and play a wide array of coverage schemes to create chaos and opponent turnovers.

Betting the Under in the MNF game with one of the teams coming off an upset loss has earned an outstanding 20-2-1 UNDER for 91% winning bets over the past five seasons. If they are a road favorite in the current MNF game, the Under has gone 10-2 for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Washington Commanders vs NY Giants

1:00 PM EST
MetLife Stadium
8-Unit best bet on the Over

Betting on the OVER with a total between 35.5 and 40 points with the home team being outscored by 5 or more points and is on a four or more game UNDER streak has seen the Over go 34-12 for 75% winning bets since 1989. If the total is between 35.5 and 40 points, the Over has gone 24-2 for 92% winning bets.

Buffalo Bills vs NE Patriots

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

1:00 EST

8-Unit Best Bet OVER

New England opened at 7.5 points rose to as high as 9 points before trading back down to 7.5 points and with 7 likely to be the number ahead of kickoff. The total has slid from an opening of 46 for this game before the season starts down to 40 and with some 39.5 numbers showing up. The Under has amassed a 53-37-1 Under record for 59% winners this season and 11-2-1 Under last week. So, for the first time in years, the public is betting this trend as if it will continue on for the remainder of the season. As a result, we are getting a cheap price for this game, especially given that the Bills are in position for a bounce back offensively against the Patriots.

The implied game result based on the current market pricing is a 24-16 Bills win. The Patriots team total warrants a sprinkle or not more than 2 units betting Over 16.5 points and getting +105 juice at DraftKings. I don’t like the Over Buffalo team total as the Patriots might score 20 or more points, so as shocking as it might be, I think this game could end up quite close. There is simply a higher probability that the Patriots exceed their team total than it is for the Bills to exceed theirs.

Betting on the Over with a total between 35.5 and 42 points that is coming off four consecutive Unders and is a team getting outscored by four or more PPG on the season has earned a 62-36 record for 63% winners since 1989 and 11-5 OVER for 69% since 2019. Now, if the team referenced is playing at home, which the Patriots are has produced a 37-13 Over record good for 74% winning bets.

Jacksonville vs. New Orleans
8:15 PM EST on Prime Video
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
8-Unit Best Bet Over the total, currently at 40 points, but there are 39.5 prices available.

The market is overwhelmingly betting the Under all week and pushing it lower. 77% of the tickets bet this week are on the Under.

Saints are 22-7-1 Over in home games and taking on a foe that is averaging 45 or fewer penalty yards per game. JAX is 51-32 Over after having won four or five of their last six games; 31-15 ATS off a home win to a divisional rival. JAX head coach Pederson is 17-6 Over when priced as a 7 or fewer road underdog.

Since 1991, there have been just four teams to start out their seasons with 6 consecutive Under results. They all went 4-0 SUATS and 4-0 OVER. Teams that played six consecutive games Under the posted total and playing in weeks 7 through 10 have seen the Over go 24-10 for 71% winners. If the total is less than 43 points, the Over has gone 21-8 for 72.4% winning bets.

Also, the Jaguars have really gotten it together over the past several weeks and without anyone noticing. They have produced a 11.8 yards per point ratio on offense for their last three games, which is third best in the league and a 21.9 YPPT ratio defensively over their last three games, which ranks 2nd in the league.

Betting on a road AFC team that is facing an NFC team, who have won four or five of their last 6 games and has posted a strong 21 or higher defensive YPPT ratio over their last three games has seen the Over go 41-22 for 65% winning bets.

Last, the Over price reflects the uncertainty or likelihood that Trevor Lawrence will not play tonight for the Jaguars. However, I am hearing that there is a much higher probability he will be under center tonight.

Thursday Night Football 8-UNIT Best Bet Total

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders

4:05 PM EST, Week 6

10-Unit best bet OVER the posted total

The Patriots are certainly struggling right now, especially on offense where they have scored a total of three points over their last two games and got shutout in their last game. The Patriots have seen their last four games play under the total and by a combined 19 points and in large part because of their anemic pathetic offensive performances. On defense they have allowed the opponents team total to go Over by a combined 22 points over their last four games and by 29 points over their last two games. The Patriots offense has played Under their team total by an incredibly poor 44 points.

Teams that have played under their team total by 40 or more points and are on the road have gone 22-27 SU and 33-16 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Teams that have scored 3 or fewer points in their last two games have seen the Over go 10-3 for 77% winners and teams that have scored 6 or fewer points over their last two games have gone 29-12 Over for 71% winning bets.

Betting the Over with road teams in a game with a posted total of 37.5 to 42.5 points that are averaging an anemic 14 or fewer points per game and coming off two consecutive double-digit losses has seen the Over go 35-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets since 1990 and 6-1 Over spanning the past five seasons.

Denver vs KC

8:15 EST

Arrowhead Stadium

8-UNIT bet OVER the total, currently at 47 points

Broncos are 19-5 Over when facing a team that averages 19 or fewer yards on kickoff returns; 45-20 Over following three or more consecutive Over results; Payton is 40-20-2 Over in road games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points for his career.

From the predictive model, we learn that the OVER has gone 11-4-1 for 73% winners when the Chiefs have gained 400 or more total yards in games played over the past three seasons; 16-4 Over for 80% winners when gaining at least 6 yards per play in games played over the past three seasons.

NFL 8-UNIT BEST BET TOTAL

NFL Week 4

Dolphins vs Bills

8-Unit Best Bet on the Under 53.5 points

The total for this game is priced at 53.5 points. So, scoring volatility is expected to be high. My suggested strategy is to bet 5.5 units preflop and then if the game starts out fast on the scoreboard add 1.5 units at 56.5 points and then 1 unit at 58.5 points.

Betting on teams with a total of 45 or more points and facing a foe that scored double digits in each quarter of their previous game has produced a 8-7 SU record, 10-5 ATS and 11-4 UNDER. The Dolphins scored 14 points in each of the first and third quarters and 21 points in the second and fourth quarters in last week’s historic 70-point offensive explosion.

Betting on a road team facing a divisional foe and having seen the total play over by at least 24 points over their last three games has produced a 43-17-1 Under record for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our road team saw their last three games play Over by 27 or more points has produced a 39-14-1 Under record for 74% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Last, if that last three game total played over by 38 or more points, the Under has gone a highly profitable 23-5-1 for 83% winners spanning the past 25 seasons.

Chargers vs Vikings

1:00 EST

8-Unit best Bet on the UNDER 54 points

I also like betting 6-Units at 54 points or even 53.5 points and the look to add 2-Units at 56.5 points.

I do not believe there will be an opportunity to get a live bet at a price of 60 or more points. However, use your intuition too, and if this game does get out of the gates faster on the scoreboard than expected I do believe that any total above 60 is an excellent opportunity. At a price of 54, each quarter needs to have 13/14 points scored and also implies that at least one team will score in each quarter.

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

8-Unit Best bet Under the posted total of 44 points

For LIVE Game betting, I will be taking 65% of my normal bet size and betting the ‘UNDER’ preflop and then looking for a faster than expected start in the first quarter and look to get 47.5 or more points betting the Under with the remaining 35% amount

Double-digit underdogs playing on a short week and on the road are 2-25 SU and 18-7-2 Under for 72% winning bets. I also like betting the Under Giants total of 16.5 points for no more than 2 units OR bet 1 unit preflop and then look to add the other unit at 21.5 points.  Even under 20.5 points would represent an exceptional betting opportunity as well.

The San Francisco 49ers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) are hosting the New York Giants (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football set to kickoff at 8:20 PM EST. The Giants avoided the dreaded 0-2 start to their season by mounting a historic comeback, trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, to defeat the inept Arizona Cardinals. The Giants offense did not score a point until the third quarter after getting shutout 40-0 in Week 1 by the Dallas Cowboys.

The Giants are 35-12 Under following a win by three or fewer points; 17-4 Under if coming off a road win of three or fewer points; 34-19 Under following a game in which they trailed by 14 or more points at any point in the game.

My predictive models and research are expecting the Giants to gain fewer than 200 passing yards and have more FG made than TDs scored. In those situations, the Under has gone 23-6 for 80% winning bets.

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

4:25 PM EST

8-Unit best bet on the OVER 38.5 points and is a valid bet up to 40 points

Optional 5-Unit bet opportunity on the NY Jets plus 9.5 points

If there is any game prop that if there is a pick six interception return, I like that a lot for pizza money

Betting the Over with a team coming off a blowout win of 35 or more points over a divisional foe and had more rushing attempts than passing attempts has produced a 36-23 record good for 61% winning bets over since 1990. If the foe (Jets) is not from the same conference, the Over has gone 11-4 for 73% winning bets.

The Jets went 2-7 over the first nine matchups against the Cowboys but have won their last three games against Dallas since 2011. The Jets have a perfect record in that time against just one other team, the Washington Commanders and a 3-0 record. The Jets beat the Bills on Monday despite a 10-point deficit in the third quarter. The last time the Jets had a comeback win when trailing at any point in the second half by at least 10 points during Week 1 was in 2011, a 14-point comeback against Dallas.

In case you were wondering, teams that held their previous opponent to six or fewer points on 12 or more drives and now playing in a game with a total between 37.5 and 43.5 points are 31-37 SU and 21-43-4 ATS for 33%. That folks, means we are fading the Cowboys.

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Ragles 
NFC Conference Championship 
3 ET 
10-Unit 5% MAX Bet on the OVER 46.5 points and is good up to and including 47.5 points. 

Betting on the OVER with a total between 42.5 and 49 points, coming off two or more consecutive Under games, and is a game involving two very good teams on both sides of the ball that are outscoring their foes by at least 8 PPG on the season has yielded a 27-14 Over record good for 65.9% winning bets since 1995.  

Now, if the game is taking place in the conference championship game or the Super Bowl, then the record has been 16-6 Over good for 73% winning bets since 1995.  
 
The 49ers ranked #1 in scoring defense allowing 16.42 PPG and the Eagles were quite good as well allowing 19.50 PPG ranking fifth in the NFL. Combined they have allowed 35.92 PPG, The total is more than 10 points above their scoring defense numbers. In the conference championship game, teams with scoring defenses that combined for fewer than 40 PPG and with a total of 45 or ore points saw the Over go 9-3 for 75% winning bets. So, the market is telling us to take the Over. Regardless of the total, if the teams allowed 36 or fewer PPG, Over is 12-5 71%.  

Home teams that had no turnovers and covered the spread in their divisional round win are 6-4 SU (60%) and 3-7 ATS (30%), and 7-3 Over-Under (70%). Home teams that played in the previous playoffs are 8-3 SU (73%), 7-4 ATS (64%), and 8-3 Over-Under (73%) in the Conference Championship. Teams that had converted between 55 and 65% of their red zone scoring opportunities on the season yielded 27-23 SU, 28-22 ATS (56%), and 33-15-2 (68%). Teams that posted a dominating defensive yards-per-point allowed of 30 or more in their Divisional Round win are 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS (63%), and 11-2 Over-Under 85%.  

LIVE In-Game betting  notes for BOTH games 
The team leading 7 or more points to zero after the first quarter as gone on to a 13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, 12-5-1 O-U, not that great   
  
The road team that scored first and it was a TD, is just 3-3 SU,, 4-2 ATS, and 5-1 ATS, so with these games priced so close to pick-em and you had liked the favorite pre flop gives you a great opportunity to be that favorite. Average score 25.5 to 23 in favor of the home team  

 Road teams that got out to a 7 to 13 points lead, 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 9-1 O-U – average final score 27-26 so betting in-game anywhere below 50 for these two games is quite attractive.  
Cincy always elects to receive if they win the toss, so here again, save some dough for betting the Bengals, if they do win the toss,   
  
 Home teams that had earned the bye and scored first in the game: 19-8 SU, 18-9 ATS (67%) and 19-8 O-U (70%) average final 27.8 - 21.6  

Here is a great one:  
if the team with the lead after the first quarter is leading by less than they were at the end of the second quarter – opponent outscores them in the second, has produced a 9-2 SUATS record – so, if your team that you bet on is trailing at the end of the first and then outscore the foe in the 2nd, gives you a great chance to bet your team at the half.  
  
You would think the team that had made more FG, would lose the game. Not so fast, 26-10 SU (72%), 25-11 ATS (69%), 21-14-1 Over-Under. 
 
Player Props 
Pizza money: Kelce and Chase score 2+ touchdowns EACH and money lie parlay them if offered for roughly a 30:1 odds return. Bet then individually to score 2+ TD 

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills 

1:00 ET, January 15, 2022 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER 

The Dolphins committed the fourth-most penalties this season with 111 and Buffalo was not far behind with 92 hankies thrown at them and accepted by their foes. In the Wild Card round the Under is 32-13-1 for 71% when one of the teams has committed 110 or more penalties on the season. If both teams competing in the wild-card round committed 90 or more penalties, the UNDER has produced a 70-38-2 record for 65% winners over 20 seasons.  

Only one team has scored fewer points over a four-game span in the playoffs in postseason history, than the 24 points scored by the Dolphins. That team is the Giants from 1939 to 1944, who scored 16 points. As injury-plagued are the Dolphins team, I do not see them scoring over their team total. With a total of 40.5 points and a line of 14 points, projects that the Bills will win the game 27-13. I certainly do not see them scoring 17 or more points. 

From the predictive model, the Bills are 9-1 UNDER in games played over the past 10 seasons when allowing 14 or fewer points at home against a divisional foe. First-year head coaches when on the road in the Wild Card round are 4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS, and 8-3 Under (73%) over the past 10 playoff seasons. 

Chargers vs Jacksonville 

5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet UNDER the posted total 

The Chargers are 9-4 when facing the Jaguars, but they did lose at home in Inglewood 30-10 to the Jaguars in Week 3. The Chargers are 10-3 ATS when facing the Jaguars, but let’s keep in mind many editions of the Jaguars were poor teams. New head coach Doug Pederson has his team and most of all his quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, playing at higher and higher levels. With the brain-dead decision to play his starters, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, Williams is OUT for this game and it has been a long time since Keenan Allen and Williams have been on the same field together and 100% at full strength. 

There is a large degree of regression expected in this game. Both Herbert and Lawrence have been executing at a high level. Over his last three games Herbert is averaging 26 completions and completing 70 of 96 pass attempts for 73%. Lawrence is averaging 20 completions over his last three starts and completing 57-of-84 pass attempts for 68%. 

The Under is 12-1 in the Wild Card round with two quarterbacks completing 67% or more of their pass attempts over their last three games. If one of the quarterbacks (Herbert) comes into the WC game hitting 70% or more of their passes, the Under is 18-3 for 86% winning bets and if OVER 75% the Under is a perfect 5-0. 

Jaguars are 8-0 Under when facing a solid pass attack averaging 235 or more yards pe rgae in games played in the second half of each of the past three seasons. 

Fromm the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars defense to stop the Chargers ground attack allowing less than 4 YPR and that the Jaguars will not pass for more than 250 net passing yards. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has seen the Under produce a highly profitable 19-4-1 record (83%) Similarly, the Chargers have seen the Under produce an exceptional 22-9 Under record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Teams in the Wild card round where on of the teams gained fewer than 4 rushing yards per carry and the other foe was limited to 250 or fewer net passing yards saw the Under go 11-2 for 85% 

San Francisco vs Seattle 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points 

4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total 

Let’s get right to the meat and potatoes. This betting system has earned an outstanding 35-13-3 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The game is lined between the 3’s, one of the teams, Seattle, has lost three consecutive games to the spread, facing a foe that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread. If it is a divisional matchup, then it soars to a remarkable and highly profitable 18-1-3 ATS for 95% winning bets over the previous 10 seasons and has not lost ATS since the start of the 2015 season going 15-0-2 ATS for 100% winners. 

The total is backed by a situational angle producing 67% winning bets on a 22-11-1 record over the past 30 seasons. Betting the Over when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with one of the teams, 49ers, covered the spread in three consecutive games and has won between 60 and 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team.  
 
So, consider a 2%, and not more than 2%, bet using Seattle and the OVER either as a parlay using the spread or a parlay using the money line if it is priced at +150 or higher, or just a simple teaser for you fine people, who indulge in that betting strategy.  

Pittsburgh vs Colts

4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the total

Betting the Over when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points with one of the teams, Pittsburgh in this case coming off a close loss of 7 or fewer points to a divisional rival, from week 5 on out has earned a 46-25 Over good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tomlin is 13-4 Over off a close loss to a divisional foe of not more than 7 points.

Jets vs Broncos 

4% best bet on the Over 

Betting the Over with a team, Broncos, coming off a close loss of three or fewer points to a divisional rival has produced a 100-64-5 record good for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and if the total is priced between 35 and 42 points has seen the Over produce a 22-8-1 Over record good for 73% winning bets last 10 seasons. If this game is occurring after the first four weeks of the season, the Over is a remarkable money-making 19-4-1 for 83% winning bets. 

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the Under 

Betting the Under with a home team that averages 1.25 or fewer yrds per pass attempt and with their defense coming off three consecutive games allowing at least seven yards per pass attempt has produced a 47-24-1 Under record good for 67% wining bets over the past 10 seasons. Plus, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, the under won at a 72% clip on a 23-9 record. 

Titans are 6-0 Under following a win of 6 or fewer points. 

From the predictive models, the Colts are 53-7 Under when allowing 21 or fewer points and averaging between 6 and 7 yards per pass attempt since 2002 and a perfect 14-0 Under over the past 10 seasons. 

Buffalo vs Kansas City 

10-Unit 5% MAX Best Bet Over the posted total 

Betting Over in games played form Week 6 on out, with the road team in the matchup outgaining their opponents by at least 1.33 YPPL and are coming off 400 more total yards in their previous game has seen the Over go 22-12 for 65% winning bets since 1989 and 13-4 Over for 77% winning bets if the road team is outgaining their opponents by at least 1.50 YPPL. Plus, 9-1 Over if they are outgaining their opponents by 2.0 or more YPPL. The Bills are outgaining their opponent by a league-best 2.18 YPPL. 

From the predictive model, the Bills and Chiefs are expected to gain at least 5.75 YPPL. The Bills are 10-1 Over and the Chiefs 21-9-2 Over for 70% when these measures have been met or exceeded in games played over the past five seasons.  

Cincinnati vs New Orleans 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Saints plus the points 

Betting the Over with a team, Bengals, coming off a road loss as a dog and are now priced as a road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 or more points and is NOT coming off the BYE week has seen the OVER go 29-10-2 for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 
 
Betting against a road team that has had 5+ consecutive Under results after week 5, total is 45 or fewer points and the game is lined with the 3’s has earned a 23-10-2 ATS for 70% winning bets. 

From my predictive model, both teams are expected to score 20 or more points and the Saints are expected to gain at least 125 rushing yards. In past games, the Saints are 15-1 SU, 11-4-1 ATS, and 15-1 Over-Under when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. 

Buccaneers vs Steelers 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total 

Steelers are 7-3 Over in home games and facing a solid defense allowing 17 or fewer points per game over the past 10 seasons. The Steelers are 27-14 Over-Under 66% in home games and coming off two straight losses and 12-4 Over following three straight losses. They are 13-7 Over in home games and on a 3 or more ats losing streak.  

The Steelers scored just three points in last week's loss to Buffalo despite ending the game with 364 yards. It was the second-most yards the Steelers have ever had in a game where the team failed to score more than three points (389 yards in 20-3 loss to 49ers in 2011) in the Super Bowl era.  

Washington vs Chicago

4% 8-Unit best bet Over the posted total, currently at 38 and may get to 37.5 points ahead of the 8:15 PM EST kickoff. 

Betting the Over in games scheduled from October on, when the total is between 35.5 and 41 points that are coming off a loss of seven or fewer points to a divisional foe has earned a 27-15-1 record good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Commanders are 16-2-1 Over for 89% winning bets in road games and coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more passing yards since 2010. 

LA Rams vs 49ers

4% 8-Unit Best bet on the OVER 

From the predictive models we are looking for the Rams to have the same or fewer turnovers and to score 24 or more points and when they have met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to a 35-4 SU and 28-9-2 Over for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bet the Rams and consider an optional parlay Rams and Over using the money line. 

Commanders vs Cowboys

4% 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total

Betting on road teams that are being outgained by at least 50 yards per game on the season and are coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 400 or more total yards in each of those two games has seen the Over go 43-21-3 for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is coming off a game against a divisional foe (Eagles last week), the Over has gone 22-3-1 for 88% winnig bets over the past 10 seasons.

Cooper Rush is the first NFL quarterback to win his first three career starts while passing for 200 or more yards and posting a passer rating of 90.0 or higher in each game. Quarterback starts were first tracked by the NFL in 1950. CeeDee Lamb is the only NFL player to be targeted for more than 10 passes in each of his team's first three games this season (11 in Weeks 1 and 2, 12 in Week 3). Lamb caught only two passes in the Cowboys' opener but had seven receptions in Week 2 and eight in Week 3. 

This matchup has all of the markings of a track meet and even a sprinkle on the first half Over is attractive.

Steelers vs Browns

4% best bet on the Under the points

The Browns blew a 13-point lead with just 1:55 left in last week’s 31-30 loss to the New Your Jets, who had not won a game played in September since 2018. The Under is 9-1 for 90% in divisional matchups played in primetime Thursday and Monday tilts with a team that enjoyed a double-digit lead only to fail to win the game and were priced as home favorites

Steelers are 20-6-2 Under when on the road and following a loss of three or fewer points and 11-3-2 Under if the game is against a divisional foe. The Browns are 18-8-1 Under for 70% wins in home games following a defeat of three or fewer points. The Browns are 29-11 Under for 73% wins when playing at home and coming off a home loss and 14-4 Under for 78% winning bets if the game is a against a divisional foe. 

From the predictive models, both teams are projected to gain fewer than 5.25 yards-per-play and the Under in games plays with a total of 42.5 or fewer points has gone 120-32-2 for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville 
4% bet on the Jaguars plus the points 

4% bet on the UNDER  

Betting on these ugly dogs have been solid money-making opportunities over the last 30 seasons. This ugly dog betting angle has produced an 11-4 ATS record over the last three seasons, 11-4 ATS over the past five seasons, and 24-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs that are getting outscored by 10 or more points per game and allowed 40 or more points in their previous game.  

Supporting the UNDER wager is an outstanding betting system that has earned a 63-26 record for 72% winners over the last 10 seasons. Bet the UNDER with a team that is coming off a road blowout loss of at least 21 or more points and has a losing record for the season and the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season.  

Seattle vs Rams 

4-Unit Bet on the OVER 

Seattle is 22-9 OVER in road games occurring after week 8 of the regular season when playing against an opponent that has won at least 65% of their games on the season and 42-19-1 OVER in road games when playing against an opponent with a winning record under Pete Carroll. Seattle is 78-43 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 20 years and under Pete Carroll, the OVER is a solid 22-7 for 76% winning bets.  

From the predictive models, the Rams are expected to gain 350 or more passing yards and Seattle is 21-6 OVER in games in which they allowed 350 or more passing yards. The Rams are 26-8 OVER when they have gained at least 350 passing yards.  

Houston vs Jacksonville

8-Unit Bet OVER

2-Unit OVER team total JAX

2-UNIT OVER team total HOU

Betting OVER the total lined between 35.5 and 42 points with one of teams getting outrushed by 75 or more yards in their previous game and are getting outrushed by one or more-yards per carry for the season has earned an outstanding 38-28 record for 58% winners and if this team, Houston currently, is on the road, the OVER is 24-11 OVER good for 69% winners over the last 15 seasons and if a road dog, the OVER is 20-10 for 67% winners.

Buffalo vs New Orleans

8:20 PM EST, November 25, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. The Bills have lost two of three games, including a shocking 9-6 defeat against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a surprisingly uncompetitive 41-15 drubbing at home to the Indianapolis Colts last week. QB Josh Allen has looked superb noting two games in which he averaged better than 11 yards per pass attempt and four others in which he did not gain more than 6.5 yards per pass attempt this season.

The Saints have numerous injuries, especially at the running back position. Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game and replacement Mark Ingram has been solid in his absence, but now is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Trevor Simien has been superb in replacing starting QB Jameis Winston and has thrown seven TDs over his last three games. During their three-game losing streak, the Saints have not started well scoring just 13 first half points and have scored zero points in the first quarter. I fully expect the Saints to get off to a fast start in this matchup against the Bills, who will still be hungover from the stunning and horrid defensive performance last week.

Saints are 6-0 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 27 or more points over the last two seasons and 6-0 ATS when competing against a foe that has a solid ground attack gaining an average of 4.5 yards-per-rush in games played over the last two seasons. Buffalo is 70-40 OVER when installed as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and the Saints are 40-16 OVER when installed as a underdog of not more than 7 points.

From my predictive models I expect both teams to score 20 or more points in this game. Buffalo is 12-0 OVER in games played over the last two seasons in which both teams score 20 or more points.

NY Giants vs Tampa Bay Bucs

8:20 PM EST, 11-22-2021

10-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total

Well coached NFL teams that were upset in their previous game refocus on the defensive side of the game. Usually, an upset loss is caused by defensive breakdowns in coverage schemes and missed assignments plain and simple. The following NFL betting angle confirms these tendencies.

Betting the UNDER in a game between conference foes with one of the teams coming off a double-digit upset loss (team was lined as the favorite) has earned a 166-104-3 record for 62% winning bets. If the double-digit loss occurred on the road the UNDER has earned a 78-29-2 record good for 73% winning bets. Drilling down through the data and adding that the current game is at home and total is not greater than 50.5 points has earned a 42-17 record for 71.2% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Further, if our home team has the better record in the current matchup, then the UNDER is 16-6 for 73% winners.

The Giants are on a 7-0 UNDER streak when facing a defense that is allowing a minimum of 61% pass completions in games played in the second-half of each of the last two seasons. Giants are 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.

Philadelphia vs Denver

4:25 PM EST, November 14, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER

Denver is 10-4 OVER when playing a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. The OVER is 7-1 last three seasons when Denver has faced a terrible passing defense that is allowing 64% or higher pass completions in games played after Week 8.

From my predictive models we are expecting both teams to score 20 or more points. Eagles are 15-5 OVER where both teams score 20+ points and Denver is a perfect 7-0 in home games where they and their opponent both score 20 or more points. Eagles are 25-11 OVER in road games and averaging between 5.5 and 6.0 yards per play over the last three seasons.

Tampa Bay vs New Orleans

4:25 PM EST, October 31, 2021

4% bet UNDER the total

Betting the Under with road teams that has a defense allowing 60% pass completions and higher and is coming off a gme allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in two straight games has earned a 50-14 UNDER record for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

The Saints are 12-3 UNDER coming off a road game and did not cover the spread as a favorite.

Form the predictive models, the UNDER is 14-6-1 for 70% winners when they have rushed for 125 or more yards and held their opponent to fewer than 100 yards in games played over the last three seasons.

Carolina vs NY Giants

1:00 PM EST, October 24, 2021

4-UNIT Bet OVER the Total

Carolina is 38-19 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. They are also 34-18 OVER after a playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored. 

Despite the large numbers of Giant injuries, the predictive models show a high probability that both teams will score a minimum of 20 points and that puts the final score above the current 42.5-point total pretty easily. 

Seattle vs Pittsburgh

8:20 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

This total has moved 6 points lower since the preseason price was set at 48 points by the West Gate Super Book. The movement is based on the news surrounding the matchup and dominated by the absence of Russell Wilson from the lineup. Even with him out of the game, the models clearly show a high probability that Seattle will be effective on offense and will score points.

Pete Carroll is 22-6 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points for his coaching career at Seattle. He is also 54-33 OVER following a game in which his offense gained six or more yards per play and 33-15 OVER in non-conference matchups.

From the predictive models, we learn that the OVER is 11-2 over the last seasons in games that the Steelers gained at least 300 passing yards and gained at least 100 rushing yards.

Bet the OVER

Dallas vs New England

4:25 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

Betting the OVER with any team that is coming off a win, but failed to cover the spread and now facing an opponent coming off a home SU win has earned a highly profitable 45-11-1 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the team in question, which is New England, is the home team, then the OVER gets even better with a 30-7 record for 82% winning bets.

Dallas head coach McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in a road game and facing an excellent passing team that completes an average of 64% of their attempts.

With a total of 50 points and Dallas favored by three points implies a 26.5 to 23.5. My predictive models confirm a very high probability that both teams will score at least 21 or more points. Dallas is a perfect 12-0 OVER in games in which they and the opponent each scored 21 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.

Houston vs Indianapolis

Week 6 1:00 PM EST, October 17, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

I will not waste a second of time with this one. This betting angle has earned a 57-23 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and requires us to bet the OVER with any team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games and in a matchup of teams winning no more than 25% of their games on the season. Tis angle has produced a 4-1 OVER record this season and 24-9 OVER 83% winning record spanning the past five seasons.

From the predictive models, we learn that the Colts are expected to score 27 or more points, gain at least 6 yards per play, and gain over 400 total yards. In past games when the Colts have scored 27 or more points the OVER has earned a 10-5 record for 67% winners spanning the last three seasons, 17-7 OVER the past 5 seasons, and 44-15-1 OVER spanning the past 10 seasons. IN past games in which the Colts gained at least 6 YPPL and gained over 400 total yards, the OVER has earned a 24-11 OVER record over the past 10 seasons. When the Colts have met or exceeded all three of these performance measures has led to an 8-1 OVER record over the past five seasons.

Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

NY Giants vs Dallas Cowboys

4:25 PM EST, October 10, 2021

10-UNIT Total of the Month OVER the posted total

This is my first 10-UNIT play in the NFL and have won a 10-UNIT play on Colorado State +24.5 points, who covered easily by 14 points against Iowa.

After trailing the fourth by 11 points, the Giants stormed backed and shocked the Saints in overtime 27-21 and marked the first time since 2011 that they trailed by 10 or more entering the fourth quarter and won the game That is certainly a confidence booster for the entire team, especially the offense as they travel to Dallas in Week 5.

The Cowboys, mostly done my Prescott, have thrown at least one TD in each of their last 26 home games and is the longest streak in franchise history. The struggling Steelers hold the current streak with 32 games and throwing for at least one TD, which is shocking.

Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards and was his first 400+ passing game and the first since Eli Manning threw for 434 in the 2017season. The offensive line did a great job giving Jones time to scan the field allowing no sacks to the Saints. In fact, it was the first game this season in which neither team recorded a sack.

Dallas is 22-9 OVER in home games after outrushing their opponent by 100 or more yards in their previous game and 39-17 OVER in home games after outrushing an opponent by 75 or more yards. Dallas I on a 6-0 OVER streak installed as a home favorite; 27-12 OVER in home tilts and on a 3 or more game win streak. Head coach McCarthy is 15-3 OVER in a home game after scoring 35 or more points for his career.

From the predictive side of things, my models show a high probability that Dallas will score at least 27 points and gain at least 400 total offensive yards. In past games, when they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 10-2 OVER record for 83.3% winning bets spanning the past three seasons; 16-4 OVER for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Pittsburgh vs Green Bay

4:25 PM EST, October 3, 2021

4% Best Bet on the UNDER

I’ll get right to it here as I like the UNDER quite a bit in this matchup. Betting the UNDER in a game with any team regardless of home or away (Steelers) that are coming off an embarrassing double-digit loss to a divisional foe and has a win percentage of 20 to 40% on the season has earned a 38-9-1 UNDER record good for 81% winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle has earned a 9-2 UNDER record spanning the past three seasons.

Steelers head coach Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER facing a suspect defense that is allowing 28 or more PPG in games played over the past three seasons. Steelers are 22-7 UNDER for 75% in a road game and coming off an upset loss as a home favorite.

Carolina vs Dallas

1:00 PM EST, Sunday, October 3, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER

2-Unit Best Bet OVER Carolina team TOTAL

2-UNIT Best Bet OVER Dallas team TOTAL

Betting the OVER in the first four weeks of the regular season with one of the teams in the matchup coming off a double-digit win over a divisional rival has earned a 25-11 OVER record for 69.5% winning bets over the past five seasons. In games with a total of 50 or more points, the OVER is 7-2 for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

No doubt, the loss of McCaffrey is monumental, but we have seen a rejuvenated Sam Darnold lead the offense with his arm and also his legs scoring two rushing TDs in their win over the Texans last Thursday. Of course, Dallas is much better than the Texans, but Dallas secondary is very suspect and Darnold will use play action often to free the linebackers and have time to scan the field for the best situation. So, I see Carolina scoring points and like playing OVER their team total of 22.5 points and OVER Dallas team points at 27.5 points at even money. 

Seattle vs Minnesota

4:25 PM EST, September 26, 2021

4% Best Bet UNDER

Betting the UNDER with any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite, as is Seattle, and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more point has earned a highly profitable 32-9 UNDER record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. 24 of the 31 winning bets went UNDER by an average of 7 or more points. 

An alternative strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size for a 4% play and then look to add 25% more at 59.5 points and 62.5 points, BUT ONLY if this occurs in the first half of the game. 

Bet the UNDER for a 4% Best Bet

Ryan is the reigning No. 1 ranked NFL professional hitting 65.8% ATS for the 2020 season. This 4% (4-Unit) Total is reinforced by an 79% wining situational angle and LIVE in GAME betting strategy that Ryan will be executing during this late afternoon game. 

Chicago vs Cleveland 

1:00 PM EST, September 26, 2021

8-UNIT Best bet on the OVER

Betting on the OVER with any team, like Cleveland, who is coming off a win in which they did not cover the spread and now facing an opponent, who is coming off a home win has earned a highly profitable 44-9 OVER record good for 83% winning bets over the past five seasons. 27 of the 44 winning bets went over the total by a minimum of 7 points. 

From the predictive models, Cleveland is expected to gain at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games in which Cleveland gained 6 or more YPPL, the OVER has 10-1 for 91% winning bets over the last three seasons. The OVER is a perfect 7-0 in games in which the Chicago defense allowed 6 or more YPPL over the last three seasons. 

Chicago vs LA Rams

8:20 PM EST, Sunday, September 12, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet OVER the posted total

I will make this short and sweet. The predictive models and applications expect the Rams to gain 380 or more yards and produce a 12.5 or lower yards-per-point ratio. The OVER is 12-4 spanning the last five seasons when the Rams have had a YPPT ratio of 12.5 or lower. The OVER is 8-2 for 80% when the Bears defense has allowed an opponent a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio. Home teams that have had a 12.5 or lower YPPT ratio and gained 380 or more total yards are 91-15-1 OVER for 86% winning bets over the last five seasons and covered the total by an average of 15 points!

Bet the OVER for a 10-UNIT Best Bet

Tampa Bay vs Green Bay
NFC Championship Game
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
3:05 PM EST, January 24, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Green Bay Packers to play UNDER 51-points. Given the 51-points total and the Packers favored by 3-points implies a 27-24 Packers victory. The Packers are 10-0 UNDER in playoff games in which they and their opponents score fewer than 28 points. 

Brady passed for 189 yards in last week’s road win over the Saints. In playoff games he is 28-18 UNDER for 61% winning bets following a playoff game in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards.

Now, combine the UNDER with the BUCS using the money line to bet a parlay and also consider a reverse action parlay. 

NFL Week 11
LA Rams vs Tampa Bay Bucs
4% Best Bet ‘OVER’ the posted total

I will get right to the main point. The machine learning projections call for both teams to score at least 24 points. Further, both teasm will average a minimum of 5.5 yards-play. In past games in which both teasm averaged 5.5 or more yards-per-play has led to an outstanding 850-220-24 for 79% winning bets on the ‘OVER’ since 2006. The Rams are 32-6 ‘OVER’ and 21-7 ‘OVER’ in games they played in and had both them and the opponent gain 5.5 or more yards-per-play.

This betting system has earned a 25-7 ‘OVER’ record good for 78% winning bets since 2006. The requirements are to bet ‘OVER’ the posted total between 43 and 50 points in the second half of the season with a team that is averaging between 6.7 to 7.3 passing yards-per-attempt, coming off a previous game in which they averaged eight or more PYPA and now facing an opponent, whose defense has allowed between 5.3 to 5.9 PYPA. This system has hit 80% on an 8-2 record over the last five seasons.

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders
4: 25 PM EST, October 4, 2020

7-Star Best bet on the Raiders
7-Star best bet on the ‘UNDER’

3-Star Reverse action parlay using the Raiders and the ‘UNDER’

Here is a simple to use betting system that has made a ton of dough over the last 10 seasons and instructs us to be on underdsogs that are facing an opponent that is coming off a home win during the first four weeks of the season.

Supporting the ‘UNDER’ is a system that has earned a 24-5 ‘UNDER’ mark good for 83% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are bet the ‘UNDER’ with any team in game with a posted total of 49 or more points after one or more straight losses and is facing an opponent on a three-game or more win streak.

The machine learning tools project that the Raiders will gain at least 7 yards-per-pass play and score between 22 or more points. When they have met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 13-8 SU record and 17-4 ATS mark good for 81% winning bets that covered by an average of 7 points.

Green Bay vs San Francisco
6:40 PM EST, January 19, 2020
NFC Championship Game
NFL: 10-Star Bet on ‘OVER’ the posted total

Let us start with this power-query that has earned a 77-32-2 ‘OVER’ record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. Play over with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and are outscoring opponents by 4 or more points-per-game and after allowing thtree points or less in the first half of their last game.

The Packers are 27-10 ‘OVER’ in road games when facing elite offensive teams averaging 6.5 yards-per-play in games played since 1991.

The Packers are 18-5 ‘OVER’ after playing a game at home over the last three seasons.

From the predictive side of things, the 49ers are projected to score 1t least 28 points and the Packers have posted a 101-13 ‘OVER’ record in games in which they allowed 28 or more points since 1991 including 10-0 ‘OVER’ in playoff games.

The 49ers are 125-29 ‘OVER’ when they have scored 28 or more points since 1991 including a perfect 5-0 ‘OVER’ in playoff games.

Tennessee vs Kansas City
AFC Championship Game
Arrowhead Stadium
2:30 PM EST, January 19, 2020
10-Star Best Bet ‘UNDER’ the Total

I will not provide the color and background of these teams as that would only be a regurgitation of the tons of content already on the web and on television. The predictive metrics are what is important in my content and let us get right to it.

Tennessee is 9-2 ’UNDER’ after allowing 14 or fewer points in their last game in games played over the last two seasons.
The Chiefs are 6-1 ‘UNDER’ in games following a 40+ point outburst and have won at least three consecutive games. Home favorites of 5.5 to 9 points on a three or more game win streak and are coming off a 40+ point game are 24-11 ‘UNDER’ since 1991 including a perfect 4-0 ‘UNDER’ in the playoffs.

For the first half the following power-query underscores the 7-Star play on the ‘UNDER” for the first half. The query has earned a 42-11 ‘UNDER’ record over the last five seasons for 79% winning bets. The requirements are to play ‘UNDER’ with any team using the first-half total that is a good offensive team averaging 23 to 27 points-per-game and are facing an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and after a win by 14 or more points.

The key projection is that the Titans will rush for 150 to 200 yards. In playoff games in which the host allowed 150 to 200 rushing yards, the ‘UNDER’ is 16-7 for 70% winners including a 12-1 ‘UNDER’ (8-16 straight-up and 6-18 ATS in case you were wondering) record when the opponent gained between 180 and 200 yards.

San Francisco vs Seattle
8:20 PM EST, December 29, 2019
10-Star Titan Bet ‘UNDER’ the posted total
 
This situational betting system has earned a 41-8 ATS mark good for 84% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet the ‘UNDER’ with a home team that is coming off an upset loss of at least 10 points or more and were installed as favorites in that game. If we increase the humiliating loss to 14 points the system goes to an outstanding 28-3 record good for 90% winning bets.

Here is a situational betting system that has earned a 40-10 UNDER record for 80% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and 17-4 UNDER record for 81% winning bets over the last five seasons. Play UNDER with a home team that is scoring at least 25 points per game on the season and has a defense that has allowed at least 25 points in each of their last four consecutive games.

Bucs are 6-0 UNDER in home games after averaging 400 or more yards per game over their last 3 games spanning bets made over the last three seasons.

OVER THE TOTAL IN THE SF 49ERS VS PANTHERS GAME

4:05 PM EST, OCTOBER 27, 2019

10-STAR ON THE OVER

This situational query has earned an outstanding 57-23 OVER record over the last 30 seasons for 66% winning bets. The query instructs us to bet OVER where the total is between 35 to 41 points and the team has won three or more consecutive games and is facing an opponent that has won four or more consecutive games. 

Drilling down through this dataset we learn that the OVER has gone an incredible 15-3 for 83% winning bets with a total between 35 and 41 points and the team has won four or more games in a row and is facing an opponent that has won five or more games in a row since 1990.

7-STAR ON THE UNDER  AND 7-STAR CHICAGO IN THE MNF MATCHUP BETWEEN THE HOST WASHINGTON REDSKINS AND THE VISITING CHICAGO BEARS. 

The machine learning summary projects that the Redskins will not gain more than 75 rushing yards, will be held to 100 fewer yards in total offense than what Chicago will gain and will not score more than 17 points. In past home Redskins games where they under achieved or at the most met these performance measures the UNDER has gone 11-3 for 79% winning bets and covered the total by an average of 8 points. Further, the Redskins are an imperfect 0-13-1 ATS.

This situational query has earned a perfect 10-0 UNDER record since 2015. The UNDER is 10-0 with a winless home dog of 4.5 or more points in week 3 and further down the regular season schedule and are facing an opponent that has a win percentage of at least 0.500 on the season. 

So, play each of the 7-Stars separately and then add no more than 4-Star parlay playing the Bears minus the points and the UNDER. 

7-STAR WAGER ON THE OVER IN THE GREEN BAY VERSUS DENVER MATCHUP SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST. 

This situational query has earned an outstanding 36-13 OVER record over the last 10 seasons for 74% winning bets. The query instructs us to bet OVER the posted total with a home team during the first four weeks of the regular season that has won two or more consecutive games against the spread (ATS). 

This one has earned a 56-25 OVER record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons. It instructs us to play OVER with a road team in the first eight weeks of the regular season that is off two or more consecutive losses. 

The machine learning summary projects that both teams will score 20 or more points, GB will gain at least 250 passing yards, and gain at least six yards-per-Play. In past games where both teams scored 20 or more points the Packers home games the OVER is 82-14 for 85% winning bets. In Denver road games and both teams scored 20 or more points the OVER has earned a 77-9 record for 90% winning bets.  

10-STAR WAGER UNDER THE TOTAL IN THE CHIEFS VS RAIDERS MATCHUP IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 4:05 PM EST.

The machine learning summary projects that the Chiefs and Raiders will post a yards-per-point ratio of 13 or higher in this ga,e. That both teams will combine for less than 200 yards and that one team will pass for less than 250 yards and the other less than 300 yards. IN past NFL games where these performance measures were met or exceeded the UNDER has earned an incredible 1,271-96-11 record good for 93% winning bets since 1989. When one of the teams has been the Raiders the UNDER has earned a 43-2 UNDER record good for 95.6% winning bets. 

This situational betting system has earned a 89-42 UNDER record for 68% winning bets since 1980. Play UNDER with game featuring divisional opponents where the posted betting total line is 49 or more points and one of the teams is off a home win. This system has hit 67% win if bets over the last 10 seasons with NOT ONE losing season among them. 

10-STAR ON THE UNDER IN THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS HOUSTON TEXANS MNF GAME SET TO START AT 8:20 PM EST. 

From the Machine Learning summary, the Saints are projected to score 24 or fewer points, allowing 200 or fewer net passing yards, and both teams will combine for at least 55 rushing plays. 

In previous games where the Saints and their opponent have met or exceeded these performance measure the UNDER has earned a 62-21-1 record for 75% inning bets since 1990. And 5-1 UNDER since the 2010 season. 

In previous games where the Saints and their opponent combined for 50 rushing attempts and held the opponent to less than 190 net passing yards the UNDER has produced a 61-30 record for 67% winning bets. 

This situational query has earned a 24-5 UNDER record for 83% winning bets over the last 35 seasons. The query instructs us to play UNDER the posted total in the first two weeks of the regular season in a matchup where both teams had winning records in the previous season and with one of the teams havng lost their last three consecutive games ATS. Rare and powerful money-making query to be sure and has occurred six times in the past 10 seasons going 5-1. 

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Saturday, January 19, 2019

1.The Play and How to Play It

A.   Play a 7-Star wager amount on the New England Patriots (313) as they travel to Kansas City (214) installed as 3.5-point underdogs in the AFC Championship game.

B.   Play a 7-Star wager UNDER the total currently priced at 56-points.

C.   Play a 5-Star Parlay using the Patriots and the UNDER.

 Projections clearly show that both teams will be successful with their ground attacjs with the Patriots gaining between 150 and 175 RY and KC gaining between 100 to 125 RY. Patriots will gain 400 to 425 total yards while KC will be less than 400 TY. Patriots will gain a minimum of 6 yards per play (YPPL). KC will average at least 5.5 yards-per-rush (YPRA).

So, the Patriots are an outstanding 8-0 against the spread (ATS) when they gain between 6 and 6.5 YPPL and 15-4 ATS when they gain 6 or more YPPL.

Over the Patriots dynasty we have seen their defense play with a scheme begging the opponent to run the ball. This is one of the building blocks that worked so well in taking out the opponents’ best player or team strength. It sows in the data as well with the Patriots overall records improving the more RY they allow. The Patriots are 48-28 ARS when they have allowed 5 or more RYPA and an even better 18-6 ATS when allowing 5.5 or more RYPA. Further, the atriots are 6-1 SU winning by an average of 11.4 points and 6-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 8 points when they rush for 150 to 175 yards and the opponent rushes for 125 to 150 yards.

When the Patriots have had 10 or fewer rushing plays than passing plays in playoff games they are 13-0 SU winning by an average of 16 points and 9-4 ATS covering the spread by an average of 10 points.

When the Patriots have had the more balanced offense than the opponent in playoff games as measured by (Patriots passes-rushes) – (Opponent passes-rushes) they are 10-1 SU winning by an average of 11.2 points and 9-2 ATS for 82% covering the spread by an average of 8 points.

Last, Patriots are 6-0 SU winning the game by an average of 19.8 points and 5-1 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11.4 points when they outrush their opponent by a minimum of 25 yards and run 10 or more plays.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This query resulting in a 46-20 ATS mark for 70% spanning the last 38 seasons. Play against favorites after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of their last game.

Supporting the UNDER is a query that has returned a 60-26 UNDER mark for 70% over the past 10 seasons. Play Under with road teams that are off 1 or more straight OVER results with a defense allowing 18 to 23 points-per-game (PPG) and facing a defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG after Week 8. Of the 86 games that met the query parameters, 51% of them went UNDER the total by more than 7 points. It has produced a solid 8-3 record this season.

In playoff action this query has produced a 5-1 ‘UNDER’ record covering the total by an average of 11.6 points.

John Ryan Sports
@JohnRyanSports1

Sunday, January 13, 2019

OVER Philadelphia at New Orleans (307)
Philadelphia Eagles +8

Parlay Eagles +8 and OVER 52.5

Place a 7-Star wager (5,7 and 10-Star scale) on the OVER, which is currently priced at 52.5-points. 7-Star Wager on the Philadelphia Eagles, who are priced as 8-point road dogs.

If you have access to adjusted lines consider a 3-Star amount parlayed with the Eagles +3.5 returning $180 for a winning $100 wager and OVER 56.5 returning $165 for a winning $100 wager. This parlay pays off $642.00 per $100 wager.

  The Saints had the best yards-per-point ratio in the NFL at 12.03, which simply means that they needed to gain 12 yards to get 1 point on the scoreboard. This ratio measures offensive efficiency and the lower the ratio the better the offense. In playoff games where a home favorite seeded 1 or 2 had earned a YPPT season average of 14 or less, the OVER has gone 14-5 ATS for 74%.

When this high-powered offensive team is hosting a foe that played the week before and installed as 7 to 11-point favorite, the OVER is a very nice 10-2 for 83.3% and the host just 4-8 against the spread (ATS) and 6-6 straight-up.

Saints have a much improved run defense this season, but Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS against strong units allowing less than 90 rushing yards per game.

Our vast NCAAM, NFL, NCAAB, NBA, NHL, and MLB databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This DB Query has returned a 42-14 UNDER mark for 75% over the last 5 seasons. Play UNDER the posted total Play UNDER with any team against the total in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing 18 to 23 PPG and after allowing 30 points or more last game.

UNDER (315)

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is currently priced at 40.5 points.

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 34-9 record for 79% since 1980. Play Under with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more total yards and is now facing an opponent after they outgained their previous opponent by 200 or more total yards.

ohn Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

UNDER KC-OAK (303)

OAKLAND (4 - 11) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 4)

Week 17 Sunday, 12/30/2018 4:25 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 52.5 points.

SIM Projections and Results

Raiders are projected to rush for 100 to 125 yards and the Chiefs will rush for 125 to 150 yards. In past games, where the Raiders rushed for that amount, the under is 12-5 for 71% and when the Chiefs have allowed an opponent to rush for an average of 4.0 or less the UNDER is 29-17 for 63%

Our vast NCAA and NFL databases empower us to provide our clients with an endless query pipeline using all the predictive technologies we have in our toolshed and the ones now in development. This one has earned a 88-42 record for 68% since 1980. Play UNDER the posted total with any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 facing division opponents and is off a home win.

Also, teams that are installed as 7 or more point favorites and coming off a road game installed as a favorite and had 2 or more turnovers in that game and scored at least 7 points are 23-0 UNDER since 2015 and cover the UNDER bet by an average of 10.6 points.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

New Orleans Saints (331)

New Orleans (11 - 2) at Carolina (6 - 7)

Week 15 Monday, 12/17/2018 8:15 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 10-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the Saints. who are installed as 6-point road favorites. Also, a 7-Star graded play UNDER the posted total. We recommend a maximum bet of no more than a 2-Star parlay amount using the Saints wager on the line and the UNDER.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Saints will gain 8.5 or more yards per pass attempt, will force Carolina into a minimum of 2 turnovers, will gain a minimum of 375 total yards. Saints are 22-5 SU winning by an average of 14.7 points for 82% and 42-3 ATS covering the number by an average of 11.8 points for 89% when they have passed for at least 8.5 YPPA and forced the opponent into 2 turnovers. Adding in the Divisional showdown, the Saints are a near-perfect 7-1 ATS for 88%. When they have defeated the opponent in the previous meeting, they are an even better 13-1 ATS covering by an average of 12.5 points.

Supporting the play on the UNDER is the fact that the Saints are 12-1 UNDER and covering the total by an average of 8 points when on the road against a divisional foe with the week after a win in which they came back from a deficit

This database situational query has returned a profitable 61-27 UNDER record for 69% over the past five seasons. The query is to play under the posted total with home teams after a 2 game road trip and with the game occurring in the last 4 weeks of the regular season.

John Ryan Sports Research Report

@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup

UNDER (263-264)

SEATTLE (5 - 5) at CAROLINA (6 - 4)

Week 12 Sunday, 11/25/2018 1:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy

Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 46.5-points.

SIM Projections and Results

Projection summary and their precedents are listed as follows:

Seattle has not forced a single turnover in three straight games and previous teams in this situation have played UNDER in 28 of 46 games. Both teams are projected to have fewer than 200 passing yards and to execute no more than 120 plays from scrimmage. In this pair of situations the UNDER is 1070-314-22 for 77.3% since 1980 and 50-14 for 78.1% since the start of the 2016 season.

The following database query has produced a 55-24 mark good for 70% over the past 10 seasons. Play Under with road teams against the total (SEATTLE) in the second half of the season that are off 1 or more straight ‘overs’ and is an average defensive team allowing 18 to 23 PPG and is now facing a poor defensive team allowing 23 to 27 PPG.

This DB query plays on the ‘UNDER’ in the month of November with teams that are off a close road loss of 3 points or less and has produced a 85-46 record for 65% winners since 1980.

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
UNDER Atlanta-Washington


SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
Place a 7-star wager (5,7, or 10-Star grading) on the UNDER, which is priced at 47.5-points.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for both teams combined to not gain more than 685 total yards. In past home games that the Redskins have been involved with and met this projection, the UNDER has gone an impressive 104-35-1 for 75% and going under the posted total by an average of 5.8 PPG

Here is a database situation query that has produced a 40-15 ‘UNDER’ record good for 73% winners spanning the last 5 seasons.  Play Under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and is an excellent passing team gaining a minimum of 7.3 PYA and is now facing an average passing team gaining between 5.9 and 6.7 PYA and after gaining 8 or more passing yards-per-attempt last game.